Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 259206 times)

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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #625 on: May 12, 2018, 09:06:53 pm »
Then there's Next Gen Nuclear - No long lived radioactive waste.  It's renewable, green, non-polluting and we have oceans filled with fuel.  Seems like the way to go to me.
Is there a fusion reactor (besides the sun) that's actually commercially viable for power generation?
Just how much more fuel efficient can the car manufactures make the cars?  Have you done the math calculations?  Modern cars aren't poluting like in they use to and the onboard computers enerure the fuel is being burned with 99.9999% efficinecy.  So where's this extra energy going to come from to move the car?
Most car engines are only about 25% efficient, with the best commercial designs topping out at around 40%. The real gains are from making the car itself more aerodynamic, of which if we exclude plug ins, the best one on the US market - Prius Eco - does 58 MPG highway. GM made a few EV1 hybrid prototypes 20 years ago that have outdone that at 80 MPG. They had a winning design, but let their biggest competitor take the market...

Cars are already aerodynamic, car companies did that about 15 years ago by lowering the roof line.  What do you expect them to do, drop the roofline again to make it more aerodynamic?  Many Americans can't fit into most of the current cars or trucks.  Take a look at the short list on cars for tall people .com.  It's a very short list.   Not very practical if one is tall or has a family.

Got anyother ideas? 






 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #626 on: May 12, 2018, 09:14:31 pm »
Do you know how much of Europe is expected to be powered by the one Next Gen Nuclear power plant being built in France?
I also know what liquid sodium does better and more often than help maintain good uptime in a nuclear plant ...

If sodium does better why hasn't Sorensen received any funding?  Why did the Chinese after funding sodium reactor development and announcing they would have a reactor on line by 2020 stop?  And if sodium is much better why are the billionaires offering any funding or for that matter any country?  Could it be because sodium is not better based on current technology?  As I'm sure you are aware there are many technical issues which in 50 years have never been solved.

Sodium reacotrs are like cassette tapes and CRT, a thing of the past.  All fudning an efforts are on Next Gen Nuclear.

 

Online ahbushnell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #627 on: May 12, 2018, 09:18:49 pm »
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient on average so with more efficient cars it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
So you take the bio waste and turn it into bio fuel and burn it in a combustion engine.  Then it get's turned into carbon.  ummm
So that "waste" does it get plowed under and put back in the ground. 
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #628 on: May 12, 2018, 09:26:42 pm »
There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.

Friend you said, "I did the math."  But in reality you really didn't do the math calculation you said you did because you are pawing it off to some other web site.  If you didn't do the math, how do you know they are correct?
I did the math long ago and remembered the result. I showed you the sources I used so you can verify by yourself.
Intersting that UC Berkeley scientests calcaulation are off by a magnitude that's over a million orders from your calculations.  Any possibility you made a mistake?  UC Berkeley scientests calculations have been peer reviewed and found to be accuarate.  Have your calcuations been peer reviewed?  Or have the calcaulation on the web site you provided been peer reviewed?  Or could it just be marketing BS?
That depends on who has been paying the UC Berkely scientists and what the exact question was they where seeking an answer for. On the other hand there is not much reason to doubt the numbers Poet-DSM has put on their website. Poet-DSM has invested several tens of millions of dollars and DSM is a major player in high-tech chemicals (a multi billions dollar annual revenue). All in all I think they know a little bit more about their bio-fuel than some desk jockeys in a dusty office. Also keep in mind that shareholders and the authorities won't like it when the numbers turn out to be way off so there is also a legal reason not to fudge too much with the numbers.

Tax payers are the one who pay UC Berkeley scientists.   As I sure you are aware UC Berkeley is, and has been the world's No. 1 public university and fourth-best university overall in U.S.  Berkeley has a long a reputation unlike other universities for conducting outstanding peer reviewed research.  If you need a reminder just Periodic Table of the Elements.
Poet-DSM is a for profit company.  (Do you work or market for them?)  UC Berkeley professors do not profit from the research nor are they trying to sell a product or a technology like Poet-DSM is.

Dude you do realize Poet-DSM would not be in business if it were nor for the research at UC Berkeley. 

UC Berkeley’s calculations have been peer reviewed, have Poet-DSM?  If they have, I can’t find them.
Why share the math calculations you performed and lets compare them with the UC Berkeley researchers peer reviewed calculations?


 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #629 on: May 12, 2018, 09:30:10 pm »
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient on average so with more efficient cars it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
So you take the bio waste and turn it into bio fuel and burn it in a combustion engine.  Then it get's turned into carbon.  ummm
So that "waste" does it get plowed under and put back in the ground.

WAIT a second you are violating the laws of physics and chemistry.   Biomass is made up of carbon.  You aren't turning it into carbon, what's going on is an oxidative reaction whihc involves carbon.  The carbon was alwasy there.
 

Online ahbushnell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #630 on: May 12, 2018, 09:31:42 pm »
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient on average so with more efficient cars it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
So you take the bio waste and turn it into bio fuel and burn it in a combustion engine.  Then it get's turned into carbon.  ummm
So that "waste" does it get plowed under and put back in the ground.

WAIT a second you are violating the laws of physics and chemistry.   Biomass is made up of carbon.  You aren't turning it into carbon, what's going on is an oxidative reaction whihc involves carbon.  The carbon was alwasy there.
I know it was there.  But its tirned into CO2.

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Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #631 on: May 12, 2018, 09:34:21 pm »
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient on average so with more efficient cars it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
So you take the bio waste and turn it into bio fuel and burn it in a combustion engine.  Then it get's turned into carbon.  ummm
Plants build themselves from CO2 and H2O (water) forming Cellulose which is a hydrogen-carbon chain. When fermented into ethanol you can use it as fuel for an ICE. If you leave the agricultural leftovers to rot on the field then insects and bacteria will convert it into methane and CO2 anyway.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #632 on: May 12, 2018, 09:37:18 pm »
Have not read this topic so might be double post but this is the prediction:
 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #633 on: May 12, 2018, 09:45:26 pm »
If sodium does better why hasn't Sorensen received any funding?

I think you misunderstand me, we both seem to not think highly about Sodium cooled reactors. France's Astrid demonstrator and pie in the sky 30 year commercial build out is based on Sodium cooled fast reactor technology though. Sodium is the idea which just won't die, it always gets the most funding ... it never stops burning.

Personally I'm partial to lead cooled fast reactors, more realistic than MSR, less flammable than sodium.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 09:49:53 pm by Marco »
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #634 on: May 12, 2018, 10:16:59 pm »
So while everyone is arguing over the next great thing, I'll drive my electric car, powered by a utility that is 90% hydro-electric. Not everyone has that option, but given I do, it seems like a good plan.

 
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Online NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #635 on: May 13, 2018, 12:43:46 am »
Cars are already aerodynamic, car companies did that about 15 years ago by lowering the roof line.  What do you expect them to do, drop the roofline again to make it more aerodynamic?  Many Americans can't fit into most of the current cars or trucks.  Take a look at the short list on cars for tall people .com.  It's a very short list.   Not very practical if one is tall or has a family.
As counterintuitive as it may sound, it's possible to make a car more aerodynamic by making it bigger, without reducing the height.
https://www.wired.com/2008/01/more-details-ab/
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #636 on: May 13, 2018, 09:33:55 am »
Quote
Cars are already aerodynamic, car companies did that about 15 years ago by lowering the roof line
Not really.
Cars may be more aerodynamic, but cars grew higher larger and longer over the years. Each generation of a given car grows a few centimeters in each direction, as well as many kilos. That compensates the efficiency gains of engines, so that gas mileage is maily stagnant since 15 years.

Quote
Most car engines are only about 25% efficient, with the best commercial designs topping out at around 40%.
Nope.
A car engine is 25%(gas) to 40%(diesel) efficient. But only at one specific load point (rpm, torque). That load point is typically when applying full throttle. At any other load points, it's 5-10% only.
In a real wolrd use, on the road, the efficiency of the engine in a car is 13% for gas, 18% for diesel.
The nice thing is there's a lot of saving potential: As a start, take the gas and diesel, burn it in an electrical plant, (Gas turbine engine), charge your BEV with that.
With the same amount of diesel or gas, you will get 2.5 times the mileage, and a much cleaner combustion !!!
Real world numbers. No contest. And that's with 100% fossil electricity, which never happens in practice, so it will be even much better as you add more renewables.
The fossil power plant gets over 45% efficiency(at all times), the BEV+charger + grid is 80%(at all times).
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 09:40:33 am by f4eru »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #637 on: May 13, 2018, 10:10:48 am »
A car engine is 25%(gas) to 40%(diesel) efficient. But only at one specific load point (rpm, torque). That load point is typically when applying full throttle. At any other load points, it's 5-10% only.
This may be true for an atmospheric V8 but a modern downsized engine with a turbo has a much wider RPM range where it reaches peak efficiency. The much lower fuel consumption those cars have proven that. All in all your claim is outdated. You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 10:41:49 am by nctnico »
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Offline gildasd

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #638 on: May 13, 2018, 11:00:15 am »
A car engine is 25%(gas) to 40%(diesel) efficient. But only at one specific load point (rpm, torque). That load point is typically when applying full throttle. At any other load points, it's 5-10% only.
This may be true for an atmospheric V8 but a modern downsized engine with a turbo has a much wider RPM range where it reaches peak efficiency. The much lower fuel consumption those cars have proven that. All in all your claim is outdated. You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
An ICE drijven by your average dumb human probably does no go above 20% efficiency.
A hybride probably reaches 35. An electric charged from a twin cycle gas plant (60% u)
probably does not reach 45.
People have no idea what a big deal 50% efficiency is in IC, the only engines I have seen documented above 45 are massive two strokes.
I'm electronically illiterate
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #639 on: May 13, 2018, 12:14:19 pm »
The CO2 emissions say otherwise and are a much simpler way to compare what is what. If your electricity takes 500gr/kWh to make then your EV is at 125gr/km. An efficient downsized ICE based car beats that (the efficient ones are currently around 105 to 120 gr/km in real driving circumstances).
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 12:17:33 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #640 on: May 13, 2018, 01:22:32 pm »
You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
Compare modern to modern, with a modern coal plant this simply isn't true.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #641 on: May 13, 2018, 02:24:30 pm »
You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
Compare modern to modern, with a modern coal plant this simply isn't true.
Numbers? And please no efficiency numbers which came out of a dark hole. Only the CO2 emissions count. Google (results) tells me that electricity made by burning coal produces between 900 to 1200 grams of CO2 per kWh which puts an EV between 225 to 300 gr of CO2 per km.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 02:28:49 pm by nctnico »
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Offline gildasd

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #642 on: May 13, 2018, 03:39:42 pm »
You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
Compare modern to modern, with a modern coal plant this simply isn't true.
Numbers? And please no efficiency numbers which came out of a dark hole. Only the CO2 emissions count. Google (results) tells me that electricity made by burning coal produces between 900 to 1200 grams of CO2 per kWh which puts an EV between 225 to 300 gr of CO2 per km.
In turn I simplify the argument for the other side;
To get 1kilo of Fuel to a petrol station, it takes anything from 2kg (North Sea Brent) to over 5kg (tar sands) of fuel to get it there: Extraction, transport, burnt off unrifinables, waste, boil off, refining, warming or cooling for pumping, loading, transport, boil off during sea passage, unloading, pumping, truck transport, pumping to final storage, evaporation in tank (petrol in hot weather) etc. All energy intensive processes. A few criminally dirty.
And yeah, good luck on finding accurate figures as these are considered precious insider information, that can give critical bargaining situational awareness.
Comparing apples to apples IC to electric is basically impossible beyond general figures.
I'm electronically illiterate
 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #643 on: May 13, 2018, 03:46:44 pm »
Numbers? And please no efficiency numbers which came out of a dark hole. Only the CO2 emissions count.

You mean only your dark hole numbers count? No one is condensing the CO2 and weighing it and Siemens is a bit coy about the exact CO2 numbers for their coal plants (only say substantially less than 800g). So doing a bit of math to come close to the truth is far from unreasonable.

As I said before :
Quote
Lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2 WLTP. Latest leaf does 40/270 kwh/km WLTP, latest coal plants have 46+% efficiency, lets do 10% transmission/conversion losses, 340 grams of CO2 per kwh total energy for coal. So 40/270*340*1/(0.46*0.9) is 121+. Pretty much the same ignoring CO2 expenditure for mining/refining.

Can't find WLTP numbers for a Ford Fiesta Ecoboost, but another index promising realistic tests http://equaindex.com gives numbers in the same ballpark.

Efficiency numbers are for modern Siemens plants. Don't remember exactly where I got the CO2 per total energy for coal, but here's one from a quick google. Biofuel can bring down CO2/km for ICE, renewables can bring it down for coal plants ... and modern gas plants produces far less CO2 per kWh than coal (let alone nuclear).

tldr. even modern coal "fueled" EV can compete with ICE for CO2/km (I still don't think they are practical except as a second/third car for the upper middle class, but that's a different issue).
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 03:48:28 pm by Marco »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #644 on: May 13, 2018, 04:25:06 pm »
The maximum efficiency Siemens claims in that document is 61.5% for a gas powered power plant. This means coal must be substantially less efficient.
BTW the numbers from Volker-quaschning must be wrong! Even with the use of wind and solar the CO2 output per kWh in the NL is on par per kWh compared to what volker-quaschning says for just coal. All other sources I have found qoute numbers between 900 and 1200 gr of CO2/kWh when using coal as fuel.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #645 on: May 13, 2018, 04:41:28 pm »
There's a huge spread in efficiencies, for the existing generators.

I'm not going to stop comparing a modern ICE to a modern EV fueled by a modern generating plant though.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #646 on: May 13, 2018, 05:04:12 pm »
To get 1kilo of Fuel to a petrol station, it takes anything from 2kg (North Sea Brent) to over 5kg (tar sands) of fuel to get it there: Extraction, transport, burnt off unrifinables, waste, boil off, refining, warming or cooling for pumping, loading, transport, boil off during sea passage, unloading, pumping, truck transport, pumping to final storage, evaporation in tank (petrol in hot weather) etc. All energy intensive processes. A few criminally dirty.

This is an important point and one that those who go on about how large "proven reserves" mean we are in no danger of running out of oil anytime soon.  Yes, there are still large amounts of oil in the ground.  But as extraction, transport and refining becomes more and more energy intensive you eventually get to the point that there is no net energy returned.  This is already likely true in some instances of shale oil, tar sand and deep water oil.  It becomes a question of how much and how long we can borrow (money/energy) from the future to support our grossly greedy current developed nation lifestyles.  Eventually the jig will be up and the downslope will not be as gradual as the up slope (aka The Seneca Cliff).
 

Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #647 on: May 13, 2018, 05:04:44 pm »
Quote
lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2
That's not true. That is where the auto industry is lying about CO2 with their biased test cycles and legal loopholes permitting all kinds of cheating on "official fuel consumption"

Let's take some real world numbers from real world people who drive on really drive on the streets and record their mileage:
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=2&fuelsort=6&constyear_s=2017&powerunit=2
You can see that the latest golf in gasoline version consumes in average 7.06 l/100km. Facts.

Incidentally, you also can see that a 2004 golf has  7,55 l/100km
a 1984 golf is at 8,21 l/100km in real world use
So the efficiency of engines are better, but the cars are heavier, wider, taller and longer, so the fuel consumption is not much better than 20-30 years ago, despite the lies of the auto industry.

Now    7,06 l/100km gives off  16,58 kg of CO2 / 100km   -> 165g/km for the Wv Golf


Now for the powerplant, taking the same gasoline as a fuel:
1 liter of gasoline gives about 9.5 kWh of thermal energy. The powerplant is 46% efficient, worst case, the grid losses are 10% -> 1liter of gas -> 3.93 kwh at the consumer.
A typical BEV, the nissan leaf consumes about 163Wh/km
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/33-Nissan/1296-Leaf.html?powerunit=2

So that would be 16.3 kWh/100km -> 4.14 l/100km   -> 96 g/km for the Leaf with 100% fossil electricity !

So when you take 100% fossil electricity, and a bad efficiency power plant, the leaf is only 1.7x better than the VW golf gasoline in real world
When factoring in renewable electricity, depending on the country's electricity mix, you can come to much much higher factors.


Funny fact : the e-golf consumes 16.01 kWh/100km, practically the same than the leaf, and allows a direct comparison with the gasoline golf !!!
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=5&powerunit=2
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 05:17:25 pm by f4eru »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #648 on: May 13, 2018, 05:17:42 pm »
So while everyone is arguing over the next great thing, I'll drive my electric car, powered by a utility that is 90% hydro-electric. Not everyone has that option, but given I do, it seems like a good plan.

You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?    And where does the other 10% come from?  Would you be okay with driving your car 90% of the time you need it and walking the rest?  Probably not.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #649 on: May 13, 2018, 05:29:22 pm »
Cars are already aerodynamic, car companies did that about 15 years ago by lowering the roof line.  What do you expect them to do, drop the roofline again to make it more aerodynamic?  Many Americans can't fit into most of the current cars or trucks.  Take a look at the short list on cars for tall people .com.  It's a very short list.   Not very practical if one is tall or has a family.
As counterintuitive as it may sound, it's possible to make a car more aerodynamic by making it bigger, without reducing the height.
https://www.wired.com/2008/01/more-details-ab/

Over the years there have been many claims by car owner/non-engineer inventors and swindlers of getting over 100 mpg.  But when someone does the actual measurement the numbers are much different.  Has anyone verified the guy's claims?  If so, I'm not seeing it.

My ICE can get 100 MPG every day of the week.  And not only that I can get my ICE car to move without using any gas.  It's got to be true because I'm saying so and it's on the Internet, right?  And I can make the same modification to your car.  Just meet me at the top of a mountain and I will prove to you it's possible.


 
 


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