When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[DougSpindler]

Cars are already aerodynamic, car companies did that about 15 years ago by lowering the roof line

Not really.
Cars may be more aerodynamic, but cars grew higher larger and longer over the years. Each generation of a given car grows a few centimeters in each direction, as well as many kilos. That compensates the efficiency gains of engines, so that gas mileage is maily stagnant since 15 years.

Most car engines are only about 25% efficient, with the best commercial designs topping out at around 40%.

Nope.
A car engine is 25%(gas) to 40%(diesel) efficient. But only at one specific load point (rpm, torque). That load point is typically when applying full throttle. At any other load points, it's 5-10% only.
In a real wolrd use, on the road, the efficiency of the engine in a car is 13% for gas, 18% for diesel.
The nice thing is there's a lot of saving potential: As a start, take the gas and diesel, burn it in an electrical plant, (Gas turbine engine), charge your BEV with that.
With the same amount of diesel or gas, you will get 2.5 times the mileage, and a much cleaner combustion !!!
Real world numbers. No contest. And that's with 100% fossil electricity, which never happens in practice, so it will be even much better as you add more renewables.
The fossil power plant gets over 45% efficiency(at all times), the BEV+charger + grid is 80%(at all times).

Can your provide some credible documentation to support your claims.  Are you sure that's not for carbonator cars?   It's my understanding with modern engines which are computer controlled are always burning the fuel with nearly 100% efficiency. 

Also the faster a car travels the more air resistance there is.  In theory everyone who lives at sea level should be getting worse mileage.  And everyone living at the tops of mountains should be getting better mpg because the air is thinner.

 

[DougSpindler]

You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.

Compare modern to modern, with a modern coal plant this simply isn't true.

Numbers? And please no efficiency numbers which came out of a dark hole. Only the CO2 emissions count. Google (results) tells me that electricity made by burning coal produces between 900 to 1200 grams of CO2 per kWh which puts an EV between 225 to 300 gr of CO2 per km.

In turn I simplify the argument for the other side;
To get 1kilo of Fuel to a petrol station, it takes anything from 2kg (North Sea Brent) to over 5kg (tar sands) of fuel to get it there: Extraction, transport, burnt off unrifinables, waste, boil off, refining, warming or cooling for pumping, loading, transport, boil off during sea passage, unloading, pumping, truck transport, pumping to final storage, evaporation in tank (petrol in hot weather) etc. All energy intensive processes. A few criminally dirty.
And yeah, good luck on finding accurate figures as these are considered precious insider information, that can give critical bargaining situational awareness.
Comparing apples to apples IC to electric is basically impossible beyond general figures.

One can not get accurate numbers as each oil filed produces varying amounts of hydrocarbon chains.  Gas is just one the many products for crude.  Over 100 years ago gas was a waste products and was dumped into streams to get rid of it.

[gildasd]

You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.

Compare modern to modern, with a modern coal plant this simply isn't true.

Numbers? And please no efficiency numbers which came out of a dark hole. Only the CO2 emissions count. Google (results) tells me that electricity made by burning coal produces between 900 to 1200 grams of CO2 per kWh which puts an EV between 225 to 300 gr of CO2 per km.

In turn I simplify the argument for the other side;
To get 1kilo of Fuel to a petrol station, it takes anything from 2kg (North Sea Brent) to over 5kg (tar sands) of fuel to get it there: Extraction, transport, burnt off unrifinables, waste, boil off, refining, warming or cooling for pumping, loading, transport, boil off during sea passage, unloading, pumping, truck transport, pumping to final storage, evaporation in tank (petrol in hot weather) etc. All energy intensive processes. A few criminally dirty.
And yeah, good luck on finding accurate figures as these are considered precious insider information, that can give critical bargaining situational awareness.
Comparing apples to apples IC to electric is basically impossible beyond general figures.

One can not get accurate numbers as each oil filed produces varying amounts of hydrocarbon chains.  Gas is just one the many products for crude.  Over 100 years ago gas was a waste products and was dumped into streams to get rid of it.

That’s why we must focus on the last link, the actual vehicle.
You have no idea if electricity is from offshore wind or a lignite plant, much the same way your petrol could be from light crude or tar sands.
I humbly suggest we focus this discussion from distribution down (HGV tankers for fuel, high tension cables for electric), otherwise this will go nowhere.

[nctnico]

That’s why we must focus on the last link, the actual vehicle.
You have no idea if electricity is from offshore wind or a lignite plant, much the same way your petrol could be from light crude or tar sands.
I humbly suggest we focus this discussion from distribution down (HGV tankers for fuel, high tension cables for electric), otherwise this will go nowhere.

Agreed otherwise you can have endless discussions on mining materials for batteries as well.

[f4eru]

lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2

That's not true. That is where the auto industry is lying about CO2 with their biased test cycles and legal loopholes permitting all kinds of cheating on "official fuel consumption"

Let's take some real world numbers from real world people who drive on really drive on the streets and record their mileage:
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=2&fuelsort=6&constyear_s=2017&powerunit=2
You can see that the latest golf in gasoline version consumes in average 7.06 l/100km. Facts.

Incidentally, you also can see that a 2004 golf has  7,55 l/100km
a 1984 golf is at 8,21 l/100km in real world use
So the efficiency of engines are better, but the cars are heavier, wider, taller and longer, so the fuel consumption is not much better than 20-30 years ago, despite the lies of the auto industry.

Now    7,06 l/100km gives off  16,58 kg of CO2 / 100km   -> 165g/km for the Wv Golf


Now for the powerplant, taking the same gasoline as a fuel:
1 liter of gasoline gives about 9.5 kWh of thermal energy. The powerplant is 46% efficient, worst case, the grid losses are 10% -> 1liter of gas -> 3.93 kwh at the consumer.
A typical BEV, the nissan leaf consumes about 163Wh/km
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/33-Nissan/1296-Leaf.html?powerunit=2

So that would be 16.3 kWh/100km -> 4.14 l/100km   -> 96 g/km for the Leaf with 100% fossil electricity !

So when you take 100% fossil electricity, and a bad efficiency power plant, the leaf is only 1.7x better than the VW golf gasoline in real world
When factoring in renewable electricity, depending on the country's electricity mix, you can come to much much higher factors.


Funny fact : the e-golf consumes 16.01 kWh/100km, practically the same than the leaf, and allows a direct comparison with the gasoline golf !!!
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=5&powerunit=2

[f4eru]

Can your provide some credible documentation to support your claims.  Are you sure that's not for carbonator cars?   It's my understanding with modern engines which are computer controlled are always burning the fuel with nearly 100% efficiency. 

Burning fuel happens with nearly 100% efficiency.
But extracting the mechanical energy from the thermal energy you get from burning is where the bad 10-40% efficiency lies.

In my example of the golf vs leaf, if you take a 85% efficiency for the BEV, you can retro-calculate the ICE efficiency, and it's in the region of 20%,  which is very very good for an ICE:
You need 16.3 kWh*0.85 = 13.855 kw/h of mechanical energy
For that, in the ICE, you burn 7.05 l of gas : 7.05*9.5 = 66.975 kWh of thermal energy from the fuel burned
13.855/66.975 ->  approx 20,7% average efficiency of the Golf powertrain
Now that's best case. I doubt modern BEVs do only 85%

[nctnico]

Funny fact : the e-golf consumes 16.01 kWh/100km, practically the same than the leaf, and allows a direct comparison with the gasoline golf !!!
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=5&powerunit=2

The problem is that you can't use that website to compare cars because the circumstances are different. 16kWh/100km is less than the official EPA rating which means people are using these cars as electric shopping carts while other people use their gasoline powered cars to drive 160km/h on the highway.

If you want to make a true comparison between cars then the only right way is to use the EPA ratings because these where obtained from real driving circumstances applied equally to each car.

[f4eru]

EPA ratings are very very very biased. The're wrong because of the loopholes build in the tests.
And BEVs are used as normal cars here in Europe.
An example of one user :
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/detail/848140.html
He does 1/3 motorway with the leaf, yet achieves the same mileage.
Electric cars just work better and cheaper than ICEs today. it ain't no shopping cart any more.

[DougSpindler]

You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?

2/3 of the world population do not live in an industrial nation. They are facing other problems. They don't think about cars, they think about food and a better life.

You need to watch the videos world health physician Hans Rosling and Bill Gates created about the 2/3’s of the world you think do not care about cars.  Cars would bring them clean drinking water, food, and the opportunity for a better life.  I would encourage you to lean about those people as you drive around in your electric car.  Why can’t those people have cars too?

[f4eru]

Cars would bring them clean drinking water, food, and the opportunity for a better life.

Drinking water is usually carried in pipes.
Food is carried on trucks.
The opportunity for a better life starts with a bicycle for them usually.
Ain't no cars in that model.
The first use of cars happens usually with shared taxis replacing missing busses in a big part of the world.

[nctnico]

EPA ratings are very very very biased. The're wrong because of the loopholes build in the tests.

The (US based) EPA is not using NEDC tests!
The EPA ratings are based on several real human drivers going through several real life driving scenarios. This is completely different compared to the lab tests the NEDC is using (which can be tricked and are completely bogus). For example: the Tesla model S achieves a much higher range according to the NEDC driving cycle than Tesla specifies (and even that number is optimistic).

Again: you can't compare cars by cherry picking numbers. The EPA test for cars has been designed to give people solid numbers to compare the fuel consumption.

[f4eru]

it's not cherrypicking. it's real life average use over hundreds of normal people. Very different. Hard facts.

[f4eru]

The EPA ratings are based on several real human drivers going through several real life driving scenarios. This is completely different compared to the lab tests the NEDC is using

https://greentransportation.info/ev-charging/range-confidence/chap5-ev-range/epa-estimates.html

What’s shown here is the City cycle. The total test time is 1874 seconds (31 minutes), covering a distance of 11 miles at an average speed of 21 miles per hour, and a maximum 56 miles/hr speed. The test is not performed on a road, but in a lab with the car strapped to a dynamometer.

Yeah 30 minutes on a dynamometer. No Braking, no heater, A/C, radio, lights, no power steering needed, idealized Cv.....
So much for real driving.

[nctnico]

The EPA ratings are based on several real human drivers going through several real life driving scenarios. This is completely different compared to the lab tests the NEDC is using

https://greentransportation.info/ev-charging/range-confidence/chap5-ev-range/epa-estimates.html

What’s shown here is the City cycle. The total test time is 1874 seconds (31 minutes), covering a distance of 11 miles at an average speed of 21 miles per hour, and a maximum 56 miles/hr speed. The test is not performed on a road, but in a lab with the car strapped to a dynamometer.

Yeah 30 minutes on a dynamometer. No Braking, no heater, A/C, radio, lights, no power steering needed, idealized Cv.....
So much for real driving.

I was under the impression that the EPA used real drivers. I clearly recall having read that somewhere on their website. Maybe they have used real drivers to validate the test cycle. Have to look that up...
Still my point remains: you can only do a meaningfull comparison using similar scenarios.

[Fungus]

So while everyone is arguing over the next great thing, I'll drive my electric car, powered by a utility that is 90% hydro-electric. Not everyone has that option, but given I do, it seems like a good plan.

You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?

Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world. People can get take them on the underground so it doesn't matter if they have a mile of travel at each end, they just scoot. It also helps that in the last two years they've added a cycle lane to most of the roads around town.

I'll be getting one soon (hopefully!). I'm just selling some stuff on eBay to pay for one. :-)

[nctnico]

Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world. People can get take them on the underground so it doesn't matter if they have a mile of travel at each end, they just scoot. It also helps that in the last two years they've added a cycle lane to most of the roads around town.

That is no surprise because electric scooters make sense. But maybe you are referring to foldable electrical bycicles because a scooter is large and heavy (>100kg) which would make it hard to bring into an underground station.

[f4eru]

Yep, it's probably more realistic than NEDC or EU cycles, but it's nearly impossible to get reproducible results on a real road.
Anyway, let's take the comparison LEAF/Golf based on EPA:

According to EPA, the leaf gets 112 MPGe. An electric gallon, what a strage unit this is
let's see what that is :

A gallon of gas is considered equal to about 33.7 kWh of battery power

That matches closely the 9.5 kWh/l thermal energy of burning gas it seems

That converts to 112 miles/33.7 kWh -> 180.2km/33.7kWh -> 187 wh/km or 18.7 kWh/100km  EPA,      we had in real driving average 16.3 kWh/100km ->  EPA is +14%

Let's take the same for the golf :

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-volkswagen-golf-in-depth-model-review-2018-volkswagen-golf-fuel-economy-review-car-and-driver-page-3

28 mpg combined -> 8.4 l/100km EPA   we had in real driving average 7.06 l/100km -> EPA is +19%

So the EPA mileage is quite realistic compared to real life, even 14-19% worse
But still, the BEV is at least factor 2x better than the ICE, on both scales.

[Fungus]

Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world. People can get take them on the underground so it doesn't matter if they have a mile of travel at each end, they just scoot. It also helps that in the last two years they've added a cycle lane to most of the roads around town.

That is no surprise because electric scooters make sense. But maybe you are referring to foldable electrical bycicles because a scooter is large and heavy (>100kg) which would make it hard to bring into an underground station.

I'm talking about these things:

[nctnico]

Yep, it's probably more realistic than NEDC or EU cycles, but it's nearly impossible to get reproducible results on a real road.
Anyway, let's take the comparison LEAF/Golf based on EPA:

According to EPA, the leaf gets 112 MPGe. An electric gallon, what a strage unit this is
let's see what that is :

The MPGe is some kind of fantasy unit based on the average US car fuel consumption (which is high). Needless to say it has no meaning at all from a scientific point of view.

[DougSpindler]

My ICE can get 100 MPG every day of the week.  And not only that I can get my ICE car to move without using any gas.  It's got to be true because I'm saying so and it's on the Internet, right?  And I can make the same modification to your car.  Just meet me at the top of a mountain and I will prove to you it's possible.

Preposterous! 

We can even do it with your car.  Just meet me at the top of one of the mountains where I live and I will show you.  THe entire way dawn your car will get over 100 mpg.

[Kjelt]

Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the

Where is that?

[NiHaoMike]

The MPGe is some kind of fantasy unit based on the average US car fuel consumption (which is high). Needless to say it has no meaning at all from a scientific point of view.

A gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 33.41kWh purely based on the energy contained in it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_gallon_equivalent

[nctnico]

The MPGe is some kind of fantasy unit based on the average US car fuel consumption (which is high). Needless to say it has no meaning at all from a scientific point of view.

A gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 33.41kWh purely based on the energy contained in it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_gallon_equivalent

That is the wrong article. The formula is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Conversion_to_MPGe which boils down to using the average fuel consumption for all cars which in the US is particulary bad. MPGe has been invented to make EVs look better but it still is a fantasy unit.

[DougSpindler]

Cars would bring them clean drinking water, food, and the opportunity for a better life.

Drinking water is usually carried in pipes.
Food is carried on trucks.
The opportunity for a better life starts with a bicycle for them usually.
Ain't no cars in that model.
The first use of cars happens usually with shared taxis replacing missing busses in a big part of the world.

Dude you've got a lot of learning to do.  I live here in California and you know what's coming out of some people's water pipes, nothing.  We are in a drought.  And in Flint MI, what's coming out of their pipes has elevated lead levels.  These people do no own tanker trucks they use their car to get water.

Outside the US there are many places were people liver where their are no pipes, they use buckets and if they have a car they use that.
Food might be carried in trucks were you live....  But that's not the case elsewhere.  In Africa food is carried on people's heads, on bicycles, scooters and if they have on a car.

Not everyone is as lucky or as privileged as you are. 

There is a car in the bicycle model.  The progression is foot, bicycle, scooter, car. 

Man open your eyes and expand your brain beyond the small area where you live.

Take a look at Bill Gates and family trip to Africa.  They lived with the locals.
Then take a look at Hans Rosling's GAP minder videos to learn about the rest of the world.




 


 

 

[DougSpindler]

So while everyone is arguing over the next great thing, I'll drive my electric car, powered by a utility that is 90% hydro-electric. Not everyone has that option, but given I do, it seems like a good plan.

You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?

Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world. People can get take them on the underground so it doesn't matter if they have a mile of travel at each end, they just scoot. It also helps that in the last two years they've added a cycle lane to most of the roads around town.

I'll be getting one soon (hopefully!). I'm just selling some stuff on eBay to pay for one. :-)

How well does the electric scooter work if you don't have electricity?
Or when it is snowing?
How do you take someone out on a date with an electric scotter?
And what if you have a kids and a spouse.

I think if I pucahsed an electric scooter for my family to use as transporation my spouse would give me an pair of running shoes and tell me to try and keep up.