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Electronics => Renewable Energy => Topic started by: SparkyFX on December 26, 2017, 02:46:19 am

Title: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on December 26, 2017, 02:46:19 am
Up until 100 years ago, electric cars were more popular than internal-combustion engine powered cars and were poised to become the standard method of transportation.  Most used NiFe or NiCd batteries.
And how did they control the power output smooth enough without losing too much power in the switch while driving (therefore potentially heating it up and burning, next to the loss of energy)? Not to mention charging those batteries.

The switches needed for that got available with the semiconductors used and available as they are today, the whole system relying on an electrical grid that simply did not exist back then. Those are very technical reasons. The first gas suppliers were indeed pharmacies, as they sold the benzine in bottles and had the necessary logistics infrastructure. That gave the whole idea of a gasoline car the necessary initial push - in Germany back in the days. Where is that chummy-chum?

I mean, there have been quite counter-intuitive decisions, like removing trolley busses (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus) from cities and now selling them as solution again or lamenting about the pollution caused by exhaust gasses inside cities. Yet personal transport and public transport is a different thing.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: drussell on December 26, 2017, 04:54:31 am
And how did they control the power output smooth enough without losing too much power in the switch while driving (therefore potentially heating it up and burning, next to the loss of energy)?

Generally using switched rheostat sections and/or multiple motor windings or voltage stages.  Using multiple tapped parts rather than one big rheostat limits wasted power in the rheostat.

Some of the stuff from that era was actually rather ingenious.  You should read up on it more.  :)

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This drivetrain was the brainchild of George Westinghouse. The engine powers the generator, which creates a large magnetic force field be-tween the engine and drivewheels. There's no mechanical transmission. The driver moves a rheostat through four quadrants — a lot easier than shifting, and grinding, the straight-cut gears of the day — and the car moves ahead progressively, giving occupants that odd feeling you get when you try to push similar-pole magnets against each other. Both Enrico Caruso and John McCormack drove Owen Magnetics.

Owens were expensive and really sophisticated. They had an advanced, 24-volt electrical system when most cars had only 6 volts. And Owen Magnetics had a black box called "the brain." There's a big warning label right on it that reads, "Do not attempt to fix this or alter it. Only the factory can do this."

It isn't that difficult to do a reasonable job mechanically, though modern switching style supplies are more difficult.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Don Hills on December 26, 2017, 12:29:55 pm
... Why would you add a whole bunch of unnecessary, expensive infrastructure instead of just recording odometer readings at registration renewal time?  Many jurisdictions already ask for that information for various reasons, including just simply for statistical analysis.  It seems more logical to simply do that and then have a tax bill based on that, hopefully with the ability to pay monthly or something instead of one huge lump sum with the sticker shock that would make some people unable to afford to drive.  :)

The solution to every problem is not necessarily more electronics and the bureaucracy to support and enforce.

In New Zealand, diesel fuel isn't taxed at point of sale. It's taxed by mileage. Heavy vehicles have hubodometers (odometers bolted to one of the wheels) which are regularly read and the tax paid on the reading. Light vehicles such as cars are taxed on odometer readings. Odometer readings are checked and recorded in a central database at each regular "Warrant of fitness" (vehicle safety) check. I assume there are processes to check for evasion.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on December 28, 2017, 08:22:41 am
Until gasoline powered cars proved to have more range and where easier to use despite the foul smell and noise.
Nope.
Gas cars were much less easier to use than electrics.
You had to warm them, fill them up with coolant (dreined after use), oil(open lubrication system with loss) and gas, start them with a handle.
The death to the electric car at the start of the 1900's was due to a simple factor: cheap gas. Much much cheaper than electricity at the time it seems.
Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on December 28, 2017, 08:40:12 am
That and range. Electric cars worked in cities, but much of the US was (and is) vast rural areas where you might have a hundred miles or more between populated areas. Gasoline was much easier to transport in large quantities than electricity and even as late as the 1940s when gasoline was well established there were many rural areas that still didn't have electricity. Early gasoline cars could make the trip into town and back from a farm that may not have had electricity even if the car could store enough of it for the trip.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2017, 09:46:51 am
Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
That is a nice dream but it ain't gonna happen that quick and it might not even happen at all.

1) For many people a car is a big ticket item so they buy one which fits all their needs. This means that the car they buy also needs to be fit for usage on 0.1% of the trips they make. Range is what kills an electric car here. Local constraints like taxation on ownership and limited parking space drive the need to buy a car which fits all usages.

2) Today's Li-ion battery technology doesn't have a good price/weight/range ratio and charging takes too long. It will take a new/improved battery chemistry to the range and charge limitations. I'm pretty sure such a technology will go into production in the next few years but price will remain a problem. Not to mention the energy needed to produce the battery pack.

3) Bio-fuels aren't out of the picture yet. In the US several companies have factories running to produce 2nd generation bio-fuels (Poet-DSM for example) which use agricultural waste instead of seeds. Since we eat relatively very little of the plants a lot of bio-mass is left unused. A long time ago I ran some numbers on the conversion ratio they currently get and it seems you can cover 30% to 100% of the fuel needed from converting agricultural waste depending on fuel economy of the average car and amount of agricultural waste available in a country.

All in all I don't see myself buying an electric car in the next 20 years (basically 3 to 4 cars from my current car). A car which is capable running on pure ethanol is much more likely.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: EEVblog on December 28, 2017, 11:28:06 am
Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
That is a nice dream but it ain't gonna happen that quick and it might not even happen at all.

1) For many people a car is a big ticket item so they buy one which fits all their needs. This means that the car they buy also needs to be fit for usage on 0.1% of the trips they make. Range is what kills an electric car here. Local constraints like taxation on ownership and limited parking space drive the need to buy a car which fits all usages.

Electrics will be fairly niche for the foreseeable future barring some drastic price drop (don't see that happening bar a new battery innovation), massive government subsidies, or a huge oil shock.
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: drussell on December 28, 2017, 12:32:42 pm
All in all I don't see myself buying an electric car in the next 20 years (basically 3 to 4 cars from my current car).

 :wtf:

Seriously?  You're on an engineering site and you go through 4 cars in 20 years?

Apparently passion for electronics doesn't translate into other genres of physics?!

My last two vehicles are the 1984 and the 1998, purchased new...  No plans to swap anything out anytime soon...  They are working absolutely fine...  This April is the truck's 20th birthday since being picked up from the dealership...  I should buy it a paint job!  :)

Perhaps you are excessively lax in your maintenance schedules?  Egads!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: drussell on December 28, 2017, 12:37:32 pm
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

Indeed...  There are many issues to be resolved before the electric panacea will be realized. 

Many people do not seem to realize that in their head-long advocacy of the electric vehicle solving all problems for all time...  :palm: 

It is not nearly that simple, unfortunately...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2017, 12:46:31 pm
All in all I don't see myself buying an electric car in the next 20 years (basically 3 to 4 cars from my current car).

 :wtf:

Seriously?  You're on an engineering site and you go through 4 cars in 20 years?

Apparently passion for electronics doesn't translate into other genres of physics?!

My last two vehicles are the 1984 and the 1998, purchased new...  No plans to swap anything out anytime soon...  They are working absolutely fine...  This April is the truck's 20th birthday since being picked up from the dealership...  I should buy it a paint job!  :)
I buy used cars like I buy used test equipment: preferably with a defect which I can fix and with around 160k km (100k miles) on the odometer. That has proven to be a sweet spot considering value for money. After a thourough overhaul (tyres, shock absorbers, airconditioning, brakes and whatever else needs to be done) we drive them until around 320k km (200k miles) because at that point the expensive repairs + generic overhaul come around and it doesn't really make sense to pour more money into a car. How quick the kilometers add up depends on how much driving we do so some cars we have for 4 years, others for like 8 years. Rust is also something I have to consider because during the winter the roads get a liberal load of salt over here.

I'm finding new cars too expensive (something like 40% tax over here) and with an older used car I don't really care if it gets damaged a little bit. Given the places we drive in every now and then (like the infamous roundabout in the centre of Paris or narrow mountain roads) that is a good thing. Also safety and comfort are a concern. A newer car usually is safer and more comfortable compared to the old one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on December 28, 2017, 05:26:23 pm
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.

Many people would be able to charge overnight at home. Shopping malls, businesses, etc. would be able to offer a charging service to attract customers. etc.

I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

Not if charging can be done in parallel with common tasks like shopping/sleeping/working/eating. Remember: Electric cars also offer a lot of ways to avoid driving out of your way to go to a smelly petrol station every 500km.

It won't work for everybody but for many people it will balance out IMHO.

Also: A new battery tech might appear and change the equation overnight.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: EEVblog on December 28, 2017, 05:36:01 pm
Many people would be able to charge overnight at home. Shopping malls, businesses, etc. would be able to offer a charging service to attract customers. etc.

Sure, but still a HUGE number of people will get caught out.
And IME huger numbers of people park on the street outside their house so that's not possible.

Not if charging can be done in parallel with common tasks like shopping/sleeping/working/eating. Remember: Electric cars also offer a lot of ways to avoid driving out of your way to go to a smelly petrol station every 500km.

And how many people can do that?
How many spots are there going to be at work places? Shopping centres?
A few dozens, tops? A couple of percent of people get to charge, the rest miss out. Sorry, if say 80% of people switch to electric cars then this simply isn't going to be possible.

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It won't work for everybody but for many people it will balance out IMHO.

I'm guessing a few percent of the population, tops.

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Also: A new battery tech might appear and change the equation overnight.

Wake me up when it does.

And FYI, I"m hugely pro electric cars, and want to get one myself, by the practical engineer in me knows it's not going to go mainstream any time soon, it's not even close.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on December 28, 2017, 06:05:02 pm
One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all. The thing is, most families have more than one car, virtually every couple I know has at least his and her cars, sometimes the kid has a car too, then sometimes there's an old truck out back, sometimes there's a motor bike in the garage, for a huge number of people electric is very feasible in place of one of the gas cars. Three of my friends now have pure electric cars as their daily driver, all three of them have wives who have gas or diesel cars, if they need to take a longer trip they simply use that car.

The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.

I suspect a solid 60% of Americans could get by just fine with a pure electric as one of two cars in the household. Of those that could, probably at least 70% of them will come up with every excuse there is to convince themselves it wouldn't work.

Regarding another comment, 4 cars in 20 years does seem like a lot to me. I bought a car with 225,000 miles on it for $500, drove it daily for 17 years and I'd still be driving it if not for getting rear ended by a semi. Got $6,000 for the car from the insurance due to it now being a classic and bought another similar car, hope to get another 17+ years out of it. If you take good care of a car it can last indefinitely until someone runs into it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on December 28, 2017, 06:07:42 pm
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

Indeed...  There are many issues to be resolved before the electric panacea will be realized. 

Many people do not seem to realize that in their head-long advocacy of the electric vehicle solving all problems for all time...  :palm: 

It is not nearly that simple, unfortunately...

What's more convenient than being able to simply plug in your car at night and have a full "tank" every morning, never having to go to a gas station again? I love my gas cars but man, they are nowhere near as convenient as an electric. Not even close.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 29, 2017, 12:19:17 am
One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all.
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.
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The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.
That only works if people can charge their cars at home. In densely populated areas that is impossible and people will depend on 'fast' charging stations. I have to park my car in the street. If I want to charge an EV from home I'd need an extention cord which is at least 50 meters long.
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Regarding another comment, 4 cars in 20 years does seem like a lot to me. I bought a car with 225,000 miles on it for $500, drove it daily for 17 years and I'd still be driving it if not for getting rear ended by a semi. Got $6,000 for the car from the insurance due to it now being a classic and bought another similar car, hope to get another 17+ years out of it. If you take good care of a car it can last indefinitely until someone runs into it.
That greatly depends on how many miles you drive and how you value your own safety. My current car (a Ford) is near the 320k km/ 200k miles mark. What is needed to get another 160k km/ 100k miles out of it are: a new timing belt, new clutch, new shock absorbers (safety), airco overhaul (safety) and some other stuff like brake fluid and new power steering hydraulic lines. That will set me back around 1700 euro which is way more than the car is worth.  OTOH the car starts to rust at the wheel arches, the engine is using some oil, the gas mileage isn't that great and there is no guarantee nothing else vital will break down (over here we have annual mandatory vehicle checks which a car must pass to be road legal). All in all it is more sensible for me to stretch usage into 2019 and look for a different car then (which brings me back to my wife having an equivalent car we can use the same way so no hurry). I'm eyeballing a newer model with a 1 litre turbocharged engine but I need more info on reliability and issues. A newer car is likely to have safety improvements like ESP.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on December 29, 2017, 01:04:38 am
Indeed...  There are many issues to be resolved before the electric panacea will be realized. 
Many people do not seem to realize that in their head-long advocacy of the electric vehicle solving all problems for all time...  :palm: 
It is not nearly that simple, unfortunately...
What problems remain ?
Range has been solved.
Price has been solved.
Recycling has been solved.
Battery degradation is a non-issue.

Price is going down like crazy since years. The purchase price is about to cross the price of ICE cars in 2-3 Years. The 7-Year TCO is already lower than ICE cars on average.
Infrastructure buildup is following adoption rate without too much lag.

Problems are all solved, adoption is going up and up. the EV park is currently at 0.2% globally, and doubling every year. :)

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf (https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf)

That means that in 8 Years at the current rate, half the car park, and 80%+ of new cars will be EVs.
And we still wait for diesel restrictions in big cities, and carmakes will have penalties for producing too much ICE starting 2020, which could accelerate the adoption even more.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on December 29, 2017, 02:02:33 am
Generally using switched rheostat sections and/or multiple motor windings or voltage stages.  Using multiple tapped parts rather than one big rheostat limits wasted power in the rheostat.

Some of the stuff from that era was actually rather ingenious.  You should read up on it more.  :)
It means the excess power is converted to heat in the resistor. That way you can only control motors up to a certain size using such a technology before that resistor burns - not to mention the significant loss of the stored energy in the control alone and the influence of overload on the vehicle leading to direct damage in motor or control (basically no motor protection existed back then). Does an internal combustion engine shred if you try to start with overload?
I mean Ferdinand Porsche came up with a internal cumbustion engine -> generator -> electrical motor as a way to propell tanks (VK 45.01 P) to circumvent such issues. Submarines and trains used to be driven that way too, until it was more practical to directly control power (SMPS style) or frequency (VFD style). In parallel there used to be diesel-hydraulic of course, all that just to be able to control the huge amount of output power as efficient as possible and keep the overall efficiency of the system high. Nuclear reactors in personal transportation left aside, which used to be the hype of the 60´s science fiction.

A system consisting of a internal combustion engine, mechanical transmission and clutch in that time was IMHO better scalable and provided more torque to replace horse carriages.

Without being a historian or trying to start a discussion about it, i guess WWII-logistics and availability to store and deliver energy played a huge role in what was the preferred type of propulsion later on, i guess that shaped the most part of what came to be. A technology adopted by a military also means that there is suddenly
a) an infrastructure
b) a huge amount of people trained to be e.g. a mechanic, i.e. experienced with it, able to repair and maintain that technology.
c) a form of propulsion that does not require a working electrical grid (at least for europe there was a lot bombed away and needed to be rebuilt)
So such decisions always have ripple effects which enable things to work that wouldn´t if thing had come different.

Not to mention that internal combustion engines can run on a wide variety of fuels, e.g. gasoline, diesel, alcohol (ethanol), wood gas, coal gas, natural gas, liquid pressurized gas (propane/butane), heavy oil, just to name a few. Don´t understand me wrong, the environmental impact of these varies, an ICE simply doesn´t run the majority of operating time in an ideal operation point, so even "clean" fuels might generate issues when burned under less than ideal conditions (the problem here lies in the system´s control of output power and the user as well), that´s where an electrical propulsion system has huge advantages.

Sure, but still a HUGE number of people will get caught out.
And IME huger numbers of people park on the street outside their house so that's not possible.
Just for info: there are quite some startups (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/london-street-lamps-electric-car-charging-points-ubitricity-tech-firm-hounslow-council-richmond-a7809126.html) coming up with equipment converting street lamps to charging outlets. So that might change the picture a bit.

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And FYI, I"m hugely pro electric cars, and want to get one myself, by the practical engineer in me knows it's not going to go mainstream any time soon, it's not even close.
It´s sad that the range extender (aka plug-in hybrid) doesn´t find as much traction as it should. It does combine the best of both and can even solve some issues by having the ICE run in practical ideal conditions all the time.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on December 29, 2017, 02:13:38 am
It´s sad that the range extender (aka plug-in hybrid) doesn´t find as much traction as it should. It does combine the best of both and can even solve some issues by having the ICE run in practical ideal conditions all the time.
PHEV have the drawbacks of both technologies :
- Cost is high, you have to pack both techs.
- Efficiency in long rage is as bad or worse as pure ICE
- Weight is high, you schlepp that ICE engine around every day for no benefit
- Not much space left in the car
- Maintenance costs are high, especially on ICE engines that are not regularily used


It's clearly a stop gap measure, or for some niche drive profiles.
I would even say it's a stop gap measure designed for keeping the actual car makers in buisiness, not for saving costs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on December 29, 2017, 02:19:44 am
It means the excess power is converted to heat in the resistor. That way you can only control motors up to a certain size using such a technology before that resistor burns - not to mention the significant loss of the stored energy in the control alone and the influence of overload on the vehicle leading to direct damage in motor or control (basically no motor protection existed back then).
Yep, there's some waste, but usually it's only during acceleration, the resistors are not used during coast, then you use the multiple taps on the DC motor.
There are some tramways still in use with this technology at a peak power of about a megawatt.
it's quite robust if protected properly, and not very lossy if the DC motor has many taps (or offset brushes)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on December 29, 2017, 03:06:47 am
PHEV have the drawbacks of both technologies :
Hah, right, of course it depends which/whose specs apply.

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- Cost is high, you have to pack both techs.
Once it is a competitive environment, yes, but so long cost and price often have not much to do with each other. In other words there are many examples in which the brand name sells.

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- Efficiency in long rage is as bad or worse as pure ICE
Imho thats more or less a question of measurement drive cycle compared to real life. Or comparison between each other. Most people can´t achieve the rated fuel consumption because of their driving habits or simply the amount of traffic around them, a generator decoupled from that and buffered almost guarantees ideal conditions. This application isn´t a single/static operating point.

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- Weight is high, you shclepp that ICE engine around every day for no benefit
The weight of a vehicle does not take the full downside in a vehicle that is able to recuperate energy from its kinetic energy. In a conventional ICE it would be converted to heat in the brake discs.

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- Not much space left in the car
It´s a question which customer should be served (again, specs), who it is designed for and which use case. The technology itself is scalable.

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- Maintenance costs are high, especially on ICE engines that are not regularily used
Less than in a conventional ICE, taking recuperation in account. What the car can´t do, is being clairvoyant. It can´t know if it makes sense to operate the ICE or not to minimise wear and tear without further information like a navigation route or button press.

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It's clearly a stop gap measure, or for some niche drive profiles.
I would even say it's a stop gap measure designed for keeping the actual car makers in buisiness, not for saving costs.
Imho yes and no, it´s not as if there was only one possibility toward which each and everyone needs to orient to. Diversity does make some sense, i think.
E.g. development effort put into small gas engines also propells small vehicles more efficient.
Exchanging a range extender with a fuel cell or "whatever" is simpler, as the rest of the vehicle is developed to run electrically. It´s not just the propulsion, it is heating, air condition and ventilation, power steering, brake system and so on that needs to be as reliable as it used to be. In a transition phase this is at least as important as the propulsion itself.

So, imho, as long as the magic wonder battery technology that does everything is not here yet, there still is a problem that it solves, especially as regulations get tighter and tighter (for a reason).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 29, 2017, 03:55:00 am
Problems are all solved, adoption is going up and up. the EV park is currently at 0.2% globally, and doubling every year. :)

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf (https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf)

That means that in 8 Years at the current rate, half the car park, and 80%+ of new cars will be EVs.
Keep on dreaming and when you wake up look for a term called 'market saturation' https://www.consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Diffusion_of_Innovation.html (https://www.consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Diffusion_of_Innovation.html). The current EVs are like iPhones and due to limitations of range, charging and price EVs will stay that way for quite some time to come.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NANDBlog on December 29, 2017, 09:30:09 am
Problems are all solved, adoption is going up and up. the EV park is currently at 0.2% globally, and doubling every year. :)

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf (https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf)

That means that in 8 Years at the current rate, half the car park, and 80%+ of new cars will be EVs.
Keep on dreaming and when you wake up look for a term called 'market saturation' https://www.consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Diffusion_of_Innovation.html (https://www.consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Diffusion_of_Innovation.html). The current EVs are like iPhones and due to limitations of range, charging and price EVs will stay that way for quite some time to come.
He is right. Solid state lithium battery is just around the corner, and that will reduce the battery cost significantly. First we see a drop around 50%, in about 2-3 years, then some due to the optimization.
Yes, I am saying, that in 2-3 years, EV will cost less than ICE, though we will also see a range increase.
One has to be an really desperate to buy a ICE car, when the electric is cheaper to buy, cheaper to run and serves 99% of use cases.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 29, 2017, 09:37:02 am
Seeing is believing. I've read too many times that a new battery technology is about to break through in a couple of years. The reality is that new technology tends to trickle down into products. It is not just the technology that needs to be perfected but also mass production and safety approvals. The latter two will take at least a couple of years each so a decade is a better prediction. We'll probably see new battery technology in our phones and laptops before it find it's way into cars. If there really was a new battery technology around the corner then Tesla would not have invested in a huge Li-ion factory.

I also don't see why an EV would suddenly cost less then a car with a combustion engine even IF they are produced in equal numbers so you better come up with some actual numbers here. The way I see it one complex component is swapped for another complex component (not just the engine, the entire drive train including energy/fuel storage).

Edit:
Quotation from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_lithium-ion_battery (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_lithium-ion_battery) In November 2017, Fisker Inc., .... the emerging technology of solid state batteries, could put electric cars with 500-plus mile ranges and one-minute recharging times on the roads as early as the year 2024. That is not 2-3 years but more like 10 years or more before we see main stream use.

The inventor  is even more skeptical: http://theamericanenergynews.com/markham-on-energy/solid-state-battery-advance-goodenough (http://theamericanenergynews.com/markham-on-energy/solid-state-battery-advance-goodenough) in an article published the 1st of March 2017: This will have no tangible effect on electric vehicle adoption in the next 15 years, if it does at all. A key hurdle that many solid-state electrolytes face is lack of a scalable and cost-effective manufacturing process
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NANDBlog on December 29, 2017, 10:41:44 am
Toyota is building the factory, Tesla semi is supposed to come with that battery technology.
These are not the new article, when Won Heng at the technical university of new bullshit has combined batteries and supercapacitors with lazers. It is the real deal.
My numbers are in the tesla semi thread. I'm not gonna repeat myself.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 29, 2017, 10:57:08 am
Still better post a link because I can't find it and Google only comes up with marketing BS from Musk making promises.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: EEVblog on December 29, 2017, 11:03:32 am
He is right. Solid state lithium battery is just around the corner, and that will reduce the battery cost significantly. First we see a drop around 50%, in about 2-3 years, then some due to the optimization.
Yes, I am saying, that in 2-3 years, EV will cost less than ICE

Without government subsidies?
I'll take that bet.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: thm_w on December 29, 2017, 11:30:14 am
Copied from the other thread:

Quote
Last month was another record month for the country [Norway] with electric cars representing 42% of its new vehicles being registered.

https://electrek.co/2017/07/04/electric-car-norway-tesla-model-x/ (https://electrek.co/2017/07/04/electric-car-norway-tesla-model-x/)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country)

Sure its subsidized like crazy, but it tells you something about how usable it is as a primary vehicle there (~60% of households only own one car).
US and AUS driving distances are probably a lot further, so you might want to have two vehicles as pointed out above.

Maybe 4+ years for costs to come down: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-than-conventional-vehicles-by-2022 (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-than-conventional-vehicles-by-2022)
But you can still get a hell of a deal on a used electric before then.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 29, 2017, 12:29:08 pm
Maybe 4+ years for costs to come down: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-than-conventional-vehicles-by-2022 (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-than-conventional-vehicles-by-2022)
But you can still get a hell of a deal on a used electric before then.
This greatly depends on how you calculate TCO and I assume these numbers only look at purchase price and maintenance costs during the first few years and not the entire usefull life of a car. If you calculate TCO over the first 100k km (the typical lease period over here) then the depreciation is a large chunk. If I take my own car as an example. It cost nearly 28k euro when new and when I bought it with around 140k km I paid 5k euro. That means that the previous owners paid over 16 cents per km for just the depreciation. I OTOH pay around 3 cents per km in depreciation. It is unclear how that equation works out for an EV. If a used EV is going to need a new battery pack it may be worth a negative number by the time the first owner is going to buy a new car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 29, 2017, 01:39:21 pm
It´s sad that the range extender (aka plug-in hybrid) doesn´t find as much traction as it should. It does combine the best of both and can even solve some issues by having the ICE run in practical ideal conditions all the time.
PHEV have the drawbacks of both technologies :
- Cost is high, you have to pack both techs.
- Efficiency in long rage is as bad or worse as pure ICE
- Weight is high, you schlepp that ICE engine around every day for no benefit
- Not much space left in the car
- Maintenance costs are high, especially on ICE engines that are not regularily used

It's clearly a stop gap measure, or for some niche drive profiles.
I would even say it's a stop gap measure designed for keeping the actual car makers in buisiness, not for saving costs.
There are many use cases where a hybrid vehicle would make a good fit and overcome the higher initial cost, but even that point is already trying to tie down the discussion. The Prius sizes both the electric and petrol engines too small for either to completely operate the vehicle within "normal" performance that customers demand, so they've not added two duplicate systems but pared both down to minimal cost/weight/size to complement each other.

Breaking out the other points:
- Efficiency in long rage is as bad or worse as pure ICE
This is unfounded, even cruising steadily on a highway a hybrid vehicle can out perform the fuel efficiency of a pure ICE as it can:
Run the engine at the most efficient power point and store excess energy before turning off the engine
Recover energy on downhill sections

- Weight is high, you schlepp that ICE engine around every day for no benefit
The benefit is that you need a whole lot less batteries than a pure electric vehicle, or a smaller ICE engine than otherwise. Weight would be higher than a pure ICE vehicle but offset by the ability to recover energy in deceleration (the major efficiency penalty of weight).

- Not much space left in the car
Batteries to make up a similar range would be far more voluminous than the addition of a compact ICE and fuel source. Also the interior space of a car is an independent parameter, few vehicles are limited on their exterior sizing!

- Maintenance costs are high, especially on ICE engines that are not regularily used
Only if you are used to the historical xxx km or yyy years servicing intervals, modern ICE units are now running on longer timed maintenance and dynamically determined usage based periods.

Hybrids are the exact answer to people who believe they need to own a car that can travel hundreds of km and refuel rapidly, its a real use case of vehicles and will continue to be demanded. Battery cars are unlikely to meet those requirements any time soon and could be much more effectively targeted at what they do well, which is small cars with short 100-200km range for moving around town/shopping/etc which is radically different to how people see cars at the moment.

One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all.
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.
How often are you needing to use both of them at the same time for trips too far to use an electric alternative? And then the follow up of for those few times when it really is needed to have multiple long distance vehicles how much would a rental cost?

I live in a household with 2 cars, one for long distance trips, and one for around town. Its never ever been necessary to drive long distances in the around town car and we wouldn't want to as its just too uncomfortable for that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on December 29, 2017, 02:51:30 pm
Interesting discussion. Not sure how many BEV owners there are in this discussion but, as one, I thought an owner's perspective would be of value.

I own a Tesla Model S, since 2013. It gets about 270 miles range on a full charge. For around town and the occasional 100+ miles trips locally, it's super convenient. I spend maybe 30 seconds every few days plugging/unplugging. If I want, I can start every day with full range. I've been to a gas station maybe once a year since getting the car and find it a disgusting experience now. The whole "filling station" mindset has been wiped from my brain.

On the occasion that I take a road trip - maybe 3-4 times a year, I have to do a little planning. For major roadways (Freeways in the USA), there are Tesla owned Superchargers that charge up to 120 KWatts per hour.  I can drive several hours and stop at an SC. Charge the car, take a bathroom break, get a little food or coffee and then 20-30 minutes later back on the road to the next SC or destination. The car will tell you when you can continue. For those of us that bought early, SC use is free.  I can drive cross country from Seattle to New York City on SCs alone and pay $0.00 out of pocket for charges.  Lots of hotels now have chargers. They are slower than SCs but plugging in over night is no hardship. When I go farther off grid, it takes more planning but there are lots of chargers out there and some of them are pretty fast (50 KWatts for example). I can even plug into a wall outlet for a very slow charge (3-4 miles per hour) in the worst case. I'll never be bricked. The charger situation is getting better all the time. There are 1100 Superchargers world wide, almost 500 in the US and Canada. With more being added all the time. Roads trips are the worst aspect of EV ownership and they aren't bad.

Also, a lot of the new SCs are being added in urban areas to support apartment dwellers. These are being added in shopping areas so you plug in your car, go shopping for an hour, have dinner, see a movie, whatever and get a full charge.

Yeah, I paid a lot more for my car but I still love it. It's responsive, fast, reliable and beautiful. You'd have to pry it out of my cold, dead fingers to take it away from me.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on December 30, 2017, 02:35:11 am
He is right. Solid state lithium battery is just around the corner, and that will reduce the battery cost significantly. First we see a drop around 50%, in about 2-3 years, then some due to the optimization.
That also means to stay competitive, all other variants will go down in cost, squeezing the last bits out. A manufacturer with a unique selling point will try to make as much money as possible before production is able to deliver targeted amounts and take a premium on that unique selling point.

Anyway, storing more energy per volume/mass is a step forward, but it is not the whole truth. Safety and long term stability are very important factors too, they might as well change the outcome of some equations or be a complete showstopper. I would not be that optimistic that some announcement means a new technology outright fulfills all requirements to a mass marketable product. When talking about solid state electrolytes, does that mean that they are vulnerable to vibration? Good luck using them in a vehicle then. And that´s just one example.

Quote
Yes, I am saying, that in 2-3 years, EV will cost less than ICE, though we will also see a range increase.
One has to be an really desperate to buy a ICE car, when the electric is cheaper to buy, cheaper to run and serves 99% of use cases.
Just as much one shouldn´t sell all possessions because someone said "the end is near" same applies for "a better future awaits you". It might not be selling all possessions in this case, but spending quite some resources.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: janoc on December 30, 2017, 03:33:27 am

The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.


You need to consider that a lot of people in the 1st world countries don't live in the US-style suburbs where everyone lives in a house that has a convenient outlet and a garage for (at least) two large cars, so plugging in their Tesla overnight is no problem.

I do wonder what are you going to do with the apartment dwellers living in the cities? Most of them are lucky to have place to park (outdoors, not a garage). A charge port there? Dream on. Ain't happening in most places, at least not unless you pay for it out of your own pocket.

And two or more cars per family? Again dream on - given the costs of owning a car in Europe, this is rare. Most families have only one car, two are an absolute maximum most people will ever have in one household at a time.

Unfortunately cities with lots of people living in the blocks of flats also happen to be the place where an electric car would make the most sense (pollution reduction, low range isn't a problem, etc.). 

So the range and charging time/possibility to charge issues are very much a large part why these cars aren't going to be massively popular any time soon. There is also the issue of price - right now a tiny electric car costs as much as a large gasoline one, with much less useful value. But that will probably change quicker than the other issues.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SeanB on December 30, 2017, 05:11:36 am
High density housing will pretty much soon mean you will be doing some form of public transport, or uber or other such non metered taxi service, where the supplier will have the infrastructure to charge an EV in off peak periods, and thus you will not really need the personal vehicle but will time share. Here where there are long distances, the electric vehicle or hybrid is still a good match, as most people typically do up to 100km in a day maximum, and for longer rare trips you are frankly a lot better off renting a vehicle for that.

If I need to move something big I will just go to the Whynott service station 15km away from me, and rent a "Whynott Rent a Bakkie" for a hourly rate or daily rate. No associated costs with depreciation, servicing, insurance and all you have is the well used Toyota/ Isuzu or Nissan with a full tank of fuel, and when you are finished you drive it back, fill up again at the garage, park it literally 5m away from the pump, go pay with your credit card and away you go. Rent for a month a year and still come out ahead on a rental vehicle.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 05:23:26 am
This is unfounded, even cruising steadily on a highway a hybrid vehicle can out perform the fuel efficiency of a pure ICE as it can:
Run the engine at the most efficient power point and store excess energy before turning off the engine
In ICEs there is the trend of downsizing the engines and using a turbocharger to make the engine have a very wide range where it operates very efficiently which does save a considerable amount of fuel in real driving circumstances. When comparing pure ICE to hybrid it is hard to compare apples with apples. Often the 'average car' is used however what the 'average' car consumes depends very much on where you look. In the US the average car consumes way more fuel compared to the average car in Europe.

One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all.
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.
How often are you needing to use both of them at the same time for trips too far to use an electric alternative? And then the follow up of for those few times when it really is needed to have multiple long distance vehicles how much would a rental cost?
I live in a household with 2 cars, one for long distance trips, and one for around town. Its never ever been necessary to drive long distances in the around town car and we wouldn't want to as its just too uncomfortable for that.
[/quote]
I has proven to me that having one lesser car means that you rely on the good car to always work. Cars do break down and the difference between getting them fixed the next day or next week is usually a couple of hundred euro. Worse if a car needs replacing. For example: 'my' car is near end of life so we use that for short trips so we can postpone the purchase of a car to 2019. Also smaller cars are not comfortable to drive and seem unsafer to me because they have less body to wreck.

The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.
You need to consider that a lot of people in the 1st world countries don't live in the US-style suburbs where everyone lives in a house that has a convenient outlet and a garage for (at least) two large cars, so plugging in their Tesla overnight is no problem.
Not just that but charging a large number of cars in a suburban area is going to overload the electricity distribution network big time. These have not been designed for this kind of usage. When EVs become widely used then going to a fast charging station just like going to petrol station is the only option. This in turn means that in order to allow wide adoptation of EVs the batteries need to be charged within a few minutes maximum and thus a better battery technology needs to become mainstream first.
Quote
And two or more cars per family? Again dream on - given the costs of owning a car in Europe, this is rare. Most families have only one car, two are an absolute maximum most people will ever have in one household at a time.
That is a bit overly dramatic. On average it may be true but my wife and I aren't the exception in the street for having two cars. Generally speaking people with a job have a car to go to work unless the job happens to be near a train station but usually that is not the case. Worse, in the NL public transport to areas where the companies are located is generally speaking the worse of all. Public transport is also slow. In some cases I can beat the bus on foot and most certainly with my bycicle when it comes to travel time.  -End of rant-
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 30, 2017, 09:15:37 am
The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.
You need to consider that a lot of people in the 1st world countries don't live in the US-style suburbs where everyone lives in a house that has a convenient outlet and a garage for (at least) two large cars, so plugging in their Tesla overnight is no problem.

I do wonder what are you going to do with the apartment dwellers living in the cities? Most of them are lucky to have place to park (outdoors, not a garage). A charge port there? Dream on. Ain't happening in most places, at least not unless you pay for it out of your own pocket.

And two or more cars per family? Again dream on - given the costs of owning a car in Europe, this is rare. Most families have only one car, two are an absolute maximum most people will ever have in one household at a time.

Unfortunately cities with lots of people living in the blocks of flats also happen to be the place where an electric car would make the most sense (pollution reduction, low range isn't a problem, etc.). 

So the range and charging time/possibility to charge issues are very much a large part why these cars aren't going to be massively popular any time soon. There is also the issue of price - right now a tiny electric car costs as much as a large gasoline one, with much less useful value. But that will probably change quicker than the other issues.
Price is always going to be a big determinant of market share, there is little incentive for people to personally change to electric unless they will see direct benefits (congestion charge or registration exemption, etc).

But I think you're missing the new ways of using vehicles in cities, for many people they don't need a vehicle day to day, or a vehicle capable of long range operation, or the second vehicle for the household, or a truck for moving house/bulky goods. Its common to rent a vehicle for the last case but renting for the others is also cost effective and practical for many people. This works well in cities where car sharing spaces can be equipped with electric charging infrastructure and the entire community benefits. Even if there is demand on a specific day for more vehicles than there are spaces they can be shuffled in (easier with self driving vehicles) from another storage facility and scheduled to be available when required so the inner city storage problem is largely solved with what appears to be just a few parking spaces on the street.

This is unfounded, even cruising steadily on a highway a hybrid vehicle can out perform the fuel efficiency of a pure ICE as it can:
Run the engine at the most efficient power point and store excess energy before turning off the engine
In ICEs there is the trend of downsizing the engines and using a turbocharger to make the engine have a very wide range where it operates very efficiently which does save a considerable amount of fuel in real driving circumstances. When comparing pure ICE to hybrid it is hard to compare apples with apples. Often the 'average car' is used however what the 'average' car consumes depends very much on where you look. In the US the average car consumes way more fuel compared to the average car in Europe.
That only helps so much, typically a 20-30% reduction in fuel which a hybrid can then save another 30% or so again on top of that. Much of the NEDC (and real world driving) is down in the inefficient band of low torque demand which downsizing and adding a turbo doesn't really address. There is a good paper here showing the driving cycles overlaid on the BSFC plots for a hybrid and non-hybrid vehicle:
"Energy Efficiency Comparison between Hydraulic Hybrid and Hybrid Electric Vehicles"
http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/8/6/4697/htm (http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/8/6/4697/htm)
A battery (or other energy storage device) does not need to be large to get these benefits, a few kWh is sufficient to make a big difference.

One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all.
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.
How often are you needing to use both of them at the same time for trips too far to use an electric alternative? And then the follow up of for those few times when it really is needed to have multiple long distance vehicles how much would a rental cost?
I live in a household with 2 cars, one for long distance trips, and one for around town. Its never ever been necessary to drive long distances in the around town car and we wouldn't want to as its just too uncomfortable for that.
I has proven to me that having one lesser car means that you rely on the good car to always work. Cars do break down and the difference between getting them fixed the next day or next week is usually a couple of hundred euro. Worse if a car needs replacing. For example: 'my' car is near end of life so we use that for short trips so we can postpone the purchase of a car to 2019. Also smaller cars are not comfortable to drive and seem unsafer to me because they have less body to wreck.
Car reliability is exceptional and there is a well developed industry around providing rapid assistance should they fail, a rental car is probably even more reliable as they have strong monetary incentives to not have the vehicles fail.

Jumping to car safety and size is another pointless discussion, you can have plug in electric vehicles of any size and shape and they don't have different safety ratings to other cars (the increased mass hasn't been fully explained away).

That you've ignored the simple point that its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric says enough, we know its a very unusual event.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: blueskull on December 30, 2017, 09:21:31 am
Define mainstream. In some cities (like Shenzhen), taxis are almost all EVs, but private EVs are not that common. Also, some buses are EVs in many part of China.
It all boils down to cost of ownership -- if you drive if for private purpose, it's likely the cost of the car and its insurance/tax will be more than the cost of fuel. If you drive it as a pro driver, then you will likely care more about maintenance cost and fuel cost.

Also there is the political reason -- in super crowded cities in China like Beijing and Shanghai, Teslas are quite common among rich people (any BYD among poor people) because government limits license plates (both usage and issuing) for gas powered cars in order to stimulate people to buy environmentally friendly cars.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 10:22:06 am
I has proven to me that having one lesser car means that you rely on the good car to always work. Cars do break down and the difference between getting them fixed the next day or next week is usually a couple of hundred euro. Worse if a car needs replacing. For example: 'my' car is near end of life so we use that for short trips so we can postpone the purchase of a car to 2019. Also smaller cars are not comfortable to drive and seem unsafer to me because they have less body to wreck.
Car reliability is exceptional and there is a well developed industry around providing rapid assistance should they fail, a rental car is probably even more reliable as they have strong monetary incentives to not have the vehicles fail.
But you pay for that rapid assistance and you pay for depreciation + interest on invested money when you rent a car so it is going to be more expensive quickly compared to owning a car. If you buy a second hand car you pay way less for depreciation and if you can do without one car for a week then things become even cheaper. TCO is the key word here.

Also availability of rental cars isn't guaranteed. In the summer millions of people in Europe use their car to go on a holiday. If all those cars would be rented then they will be more expensive to rent than to own because the cars need to be stored outside the holiday season and there has to be a return on invested money. The same goes for car sharing. It is a solution which is useful for a very limited number of people.
Quote
Jumping to car safety and size is another pointless discussion, you can have plug in electric vehicles of any size and shape and they don't have different safety ratings to other cars (the increased mass hasn't been fully explained away).
Safety ratings are based on predefined laboratory tests which can be cheated. IIRC the Renault Megane was the first car to score 5 stars. However if you crash it with like 5km/h more than the speed used during the test it will kill you. More stuff and distance between you and whatever hits you equals a slower decelleration and more stuff to absorb the impact energy which equals a higher chance of survival.
Quote
That you've ignored the simple point that its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric says enough, we know its a very unusual event.
I'm not ignoring it but an EV or small car wouldn't work for us at all for various reasons. I don't think it is wise to push people into having a certain kind of car depending on what you think is right for them so the point is rather moot. People will choose what works best for them given functionality versus price.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NANDBlog on December 30, 2017, 11:27:15 am
He is right. Solid state lithium battery is just around the corner, and that will reduce the battery cost significantly. First we see a drop around 50%, in about 2-3 years, then some due to the optimization.
Yes, I am saying, that in 2-3 years, EV will cost less than ICE

Without government subsidies?
I'll take that bet.
Actually, I've just checked the prices.
EV: Old Nissan Leaf, 110 HP Automatic, 24KWH battery, price is reduced now to 18100 EUR (with subsidy), comes with a charger, which normally costs 860 EUR.
ICE: Nissan Pulsar, 115HP CVT Automatic, price is 17700 EUR.

So with subsidy, the same car is already the same price?

Still better post a link because I can't find it and Google only comes up with marketing BS from Musk making promises.
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/tesla-finally-launches-a-trucksemi/175/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/tesla-finally-launches-a-trucksemi/175/)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 11:54:41 am
Still better post a link because I can't find it and Google only comes up with marketing BS from Musk making promises.
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/tesla-finally-launches-a-trucksemi/175/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/tesla-finally-launches-a-trucksemi/175/)
Well the article that post is linking to is one the articles I found myself. I'm wondering how you come to the conclusion that solid state batteries will be in volume production within 2 or 3 years by reading that article. It is one of the many marketing BS stories Musk has spread to drive stock value up. The same article quotes various specialists from Bloomberg which have serious doubts about Musk's claims combined with the timeframe. Musk's ideas usually need way more time to become reality. In an article I linked to a few posts earlier the inventor of a solid state Lithium battery (Mr. Goodenough) says 15 years is more likely before we see solid state Lithium batteries for mainstream usage.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 30, 2017, 12:30:43 pm
Jumping to car safety and size is another pointless discussion, you can have plug in electric vehicles of any size and shape and they don't have different safety ratings to other cars (the increased mass hasn't been fully explained away).
Safety ratings are based on predefined laboratory tests which can be cheated. IIRC the Renault Megane was the first car to score 5 stars. However if you crash it with like 5km/h more than the speed used during the test it will kill you. More stuff and distance between you and whatever hits you equals a slower decelleration and more stuff to absorb the impact energy which equals a higher chance of survival.
That you've ignored the simple point that its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric says enough, we know its a very unusual event.
I'm not ignoring it but an EV or small car wouldn't work for us at all for various reasons. I don't think it is wise to push people into having a certain kind of car depending on what you think is right for them so the point is rather moot. People will choose what works best for them given functionality versus price.
Except you jumped in on this thread to explain how it wouldn't work for you when the comments weren't directed at you and then wander off with straw man arguments like trying to link the safety of arbitrary small cars to the safety of electric cars. Seems you're the one looking to find problems and we aren't here trying to convince you but you came trying to tell us how it'll never work (and failing to convince us in the process).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 01:56:34 pm
Sorry but it is you comming up with statements like its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric. Please provide some solid numbers to back that up! I don't care about your opinion.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 30, 2017, 02:29:15 pm
Sorry but it is you comming up with statements like its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric. Please provide some solid numbers to back that up! I don't care about your opinion.
The data is easy to find, daily travel distances per vehicle/person are not pushing the limits of an electric car with a 200km range. We can find well presented data with distributions of the daily travel distance:
https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/ (https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/)
https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/ (https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/)
So the probability that two people in the same household require on the same day separate vehicles each with a range exceeding 200km is tiny. You can even find comprehensive analysis here:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371)
One 400km range electric car would satisfy as a substitute for 80% of the households with multiple cars without any adaption or change in their behaviours. With small and infrequent changes in behaviour or fewer households the battery range can be reduced substantially. Oh they also looked at overall cost savings etc if you really want to get into the details.

I'm not even trying to get to those lofty goals but pointing out that with just a little change to the existing transport plans the majority of people could replace one of their multiple cars with an electric vehicle, yes there will be some changes and the occasional rare day/event that can't be covered but rental cars, borrowing vehicles, or changing behaviours are possible solutions.

Over to you to provide the data which says otherwise. Even if you have some particular cases where you can recall your specific requirement I doubt they are even a routine occurrence. Once people live in remote areas which require long distance travel they are attuned to the costs and plan very carefully to share as much transport as possible but thats coming from a perspective of a country where people do live hours away by car from the nearest town which is not typical and a tiny proportion of the population.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on December 30, 2017, 05:32:47 pm
This greatly depends on how you calculate TCO and I assume these numbers only look at purchase price and maintenance costs during the first few years and not the entire usefull life of a car. If you calculate TCO over the first 100k km (the typical lease period over here) then the depreciation is a large chunk. If I take my own car as an example. It cost nearly 28k euro when new and when I bought it with around 140k km I paid 5k euro. That means that the previous owners paid over 16 cents per km for just the depreciation. I OTOH pay around 3 cents per km in depreciation. It is unclear how that equation works out for an EV. If a used EV is going to need a new battery pack it may be worth a negative number by the time the first owner is going to buy a new car.

When the original Prius came out I predicted a catastrophe. I was certain that within 10 years there would be piles of them in junkyards with nothing more than dead batteries which cost $10k at the time. Turns out I was wrong, the batteries in the Prius turned out to be very reliable, I know of multiple 1st gen models still running the original battery and replacement batteries have dropped down to around $2k. The battery replacement cost is a concern for pure electrics but I'm not going to be too quick to predict doom and gloom, the last time I did that I was wrong.

Whatever the case I know several people with electric cars now and I've seen the numbers, they are far cheaper to run in the current economic climate. Our electricity is cheap and gasoline is relatively expensive compared to other parts of the US.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on December 30, 2017, 05:51:43 pm
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.


That only works if people can charge their cars at home. In densely populated areas that is impossible and people will depend on 'fast' charging stations. I have to park my car in the street. If I want to charge an EV from home I'd need an extention cord which is at least 50 meters long.


That greatly depends on how many miles you drive and how you value your own safety. My current car (a Ford) is near the 320k km/ 200k miles mark. What is needed to get another 160k km/ 100k miles out of it are: a new timing belt, new clutch, new shock absorbers (safety), airco overhaul (safety) and some other stuff like brake fluid and new power steering hydraulic lines. That will set me back around 1700 euro which is way more than the car is worth.  OTOH the car starts to rust at the wheel arches, the engine is using some oil, the gas mileage isn't that great and there is no guarantee nothing else vital will break down (over here we have annual mandatory vehicle checks which a car must pass to be road legal). All in all it is more sensible for me to stretch usage into 2019 and look for a different car then (which brings me back to my wife having an equivalent car we can use the same way so no hurry). I'm eyeballing a newer model with a 1 litre turbocharged engine but I need more info on reliability and issues. A newer car is likely to have safety improvements like ESP.



Ok so electric probably won't work for you, but as with the solar road thread I've noticed you are prone to assuming that because something doesn't work for you, it can't possibly work for most other people. There are tens of millions of people who do primarily short trips, and even more who could get by with one short range car. 50 years ago most families had only one car and yet somehow they survived, surely most families today could make a few lifestyle adjustments to get by with one long range car? Again maybe it won't work for you, but that doesn't mean it won't work for most people, but like you, most people excel at making excuses for why something wouldn't possibly work for them.

Impossible? I think not. If there is space to park a car, there's space to plug it in somewhere. If they live in such a densely populated area that they have nowhere to plug in their car then an even better solution would be to use public transit as millions of urban dwellers already do. You might be surprised at the number of people who own no car at all, and again, not everyone lives in a dense urban environment. Have a look on google earth, there are massive sprawling suburbs all over the world, many tens of millions of people live in single family homes and duplexes, millions more in condos or apartments with dedicated parking. There are millions and millions of people who can simply plug in at night, even if you can't.

I value my safety quite a lot, it's the reason I drive a Volvo. My '87 got rear ended by a tanker semi that was going ~50 mph while I was stopped, once everything came to a stop I opened the door, got out and walked away without so much as a scratch. Despite being 30 years old the car performed absolutely flawlessly, the crumple zones and reinforced cage did exactly what they were designed to do. Being old doesn't mean unsafe. They generally don't salt the roads out here so rust is not an issue. Unlike most people I repair all the little stuff as needed so my cars never become dilapidated beaters. I've never understood the "spent more than the car is worth" argument, what the car is worth is irrelevant unless you intend to sell the car. When I bought my '90 wagon I paid $2250 for the car, then I spent another $2500 on all the maintenance and cosmetic restoration, that adds up to well over the book value of the car but so what? It's in excellent condition now and drives like a brand new car. Where can I buy a 1990 model that's in perfect condition with all the maintenance done? The reason the book value is less is because nobody sells old cars that are in perfect shape. Either you pay the money fixing up and older car or you pay a whole lot more money in the depreciation of a newer car. Nothing newer than mid-late 90s does anything for me. Whenever I have to drive a new car it always feels so nice to get back into one of my classics. I hate modern cars.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: janoc on December 30, 2017, 09:09:27 pm
High density housing will pretty much soon mean you will be doing some form of public transport, or uber or other such non metered taxi service, where the supplier will have the infrastructure to charge an EV in off peak periods, and thus you will not really need the personal vehicle but will time share. Here where there are long distances, the electric vehicle or hybrid is still a good match, as most people typically do up to 100km in a day maximum, and for longer rare trips you are frankly a lot better off renting a vehicle for that.

If I need to move something big I will just go to the Whynott service station 15km away from me, and rent a "Whynott Rent a Bakkie" for a hourly rate or daily rate. No associated costs with depreciation, servicing, insurance and all you have is the well used Toyota/ Isuzu or Nissan with a full tank of fuel, and when you are finished you drive it back, fill up again at the garage, park it literally 5m away from the pump, go pay with your credit card and away you go. Rent for a month a year and still come out ahead on a rental vehicle.

That's very much a fantasy. Yes, you may not need a car to commute to work everyday if the public transport works because you live in the middle of a large city and have a good paying job (so you can afford renting  the car occasionally too).  But we are far from public transport being ubiquitous, going everywhere where needed (and not only where there are enough paying clients to make it profitable) and it still doesn't cover long distance travel.

Using "Uber" or renting a car works great in theory - if you are rich enough to be able to afford it. I suggest you visit e.g. one of the Parisian suburbs (which I live some 40minutes from) and tell the people there they should get rid of their old polluting cars and call a taxi/Uber or rent a car. These suburbs or "banlieues" are usually full of blocks of flats, being typically homes of low income families.

Only few of these suburbs are served by train/public transport, so the car is often the only option how to actually get the 10-20km to work. There is also little to no infrastructure there (schools, hospitals, shopping, etc., certainly no car rental or even self-service car sharing - that is only downtown), so again, without a car you are screwed. And most people living in the blocks of flats there are low wage laborers (if they have work at all), so very ill suited to renting a car or taking a taxi to work every day. I guess you haven't checked how much would that actually cost you if you had to take e.g. a 10km commute every day by calling a taxi (or Uber).

The above still doesn't take into account the ubiquitous delays and problems on the public transport, the trains (go to a business meeting after spending 30-40 minutes hanging from an overhead strap on a jam-packed train!), etc.

And that is an example from Paris, where there actually is a fairly dense public transport system already (metro, surface trains, trams & buses), there is also an electric car sharing system (Autolib'), bike sharing (Velib'), taxi service and Uber. There are plenty of cities which have the same problems - and don't have that level of public infrastructure in place.

E.g. in Compiegne (a town of about 40k people, some 80km north of Paris where I live) we have free buses, going about once/twice per hour. If the bus isn't going where or when you need to go, you are on your own. So a car is pretty much a necessity if you live or work in an outlying part of the town. There is no Uber (too small town for it), there is no car sharing, at best you can book a taxi. Electric car charge ports are only at large shopping centers outside of the town, so useless to actually recharge your car overnight (unless you have two - one charging and another one driving).

Please do a bit of research before you say stuff like this next time because it makes you very much sound like that infamous aristocrat who, when told that people don't have bread and are starving, replied with "they should eat cake instead".


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: janoc on December 30, 2017, 09:26:02 pm

That is a bit overly dramatic. On average it may be true but my wife and I aren't the exception in the street for having two cars. Generally speaking people with a job have a car to go to work unless the job happens to be near a train station but usually that is not the case. Worse, in the NL public transport to areas where the companies are located is generally speaking the worse of all. Public transport is also slow. In some cases I can beat the bus on foot and most certainly with my bycicle when it comes to travel time.  -End of rant-

Please, keep in mind that not everyone lives in the relatively rich Western Europe, with a good salary that can afford it. Someone did mention this here before already - for many people a car is a huge expenditure, both buying it and running it and can ill-afford to have a second vehicle in the household. Once you pass the former West Germany border you will discover that people buy a car for 10-15 years, often longer. For many buying a car is the second largest expense in their life after buying a home and will maybe change it once or twice in their lifetime.

I cannot speak about Netherlands, but e.g. in France where I live, a lot of people struggle with day to day expenses already. I have never said that it is impossible to own multiple vehicles, only that it is comparatively rare. Especially people who earn low to average wages would struggle with it. And if you go to e.g. Denmark or Sweden, there the state makes owning a car prohibitively expensive with crazy taxes and fees. I have lived there and a lot of people simply couldn't afford to own a car there due to this. On the other hand, the public transport and general infrastructure is much better adapted to a "car-less" life there than elsewhere.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 30, 2017, 09:56:44 pm
High density housing will pretty much soon mean you will be doing some form of public transport, or uber or other such non metered taxi service, where the supplier will have the infrastructure to charge an EV in off peak periods, and thus you will not really need the personal vehicle but will time share. Here where there are long distances, the electric vehicle or hybrid is still a good match, as most people typically do up to 100km in a day maximum, and for longer rare trips you are frankly a lot better off renting a vehicle for that.

If I need to move something big I will just go to the Whynott service station 15km away from me, and rent a "Whynott Rent a Bakkie" for a hourly rate or daily rate. No associated costs with depreciation, servicing, insurance and all you have is the well used Toyota/ Isuzu or Nissan with a full tank of fuel, and when you are finished you drive it back, fill up again at the garage, park it literally 5m away from the pump, go pay with your credit card and away you go. Rent for a month a year and still come out ahead on a rental vehicle.

That's very much a fantasy. Yes, you may not need a car to commute to work everyday if the public transport works because you live in the middle of a large city and have a good paying job (so you can afford renting  the car occasionally too).  But we are far from public transport being ubiquitous, going everywhere where needed (and not only where there are enough paying clients to make it profitable) and it still doesn't cover long distance travel.

Using "Uber" or renting a car works great in theory - if you are rich enough to be able to afford it. I suggest you visit e.g. one of the Parisian suburbs (which I live some 40minutes from) and tell the people there they should get rid of their old polluting cars and call a taxi/Uber or rent a car. These suburbs or "banlieues" are usually full of blocks of flats, being typically homes of low income families.

Only few of these suburbs are served by train/public transport, so the car is often the only option how to actually get the 10-20km to work. There is also little to no infrastructure there (schools, hospitals, shopping, etc., certainly no car rental or even self-service car sharing - that is only downtown), so again, without a car you are screwed. And most people living in the blocks of flats there are low wage laborers (if they have work at all), so very ill suited to renting a car or taking a taxi to work every day. I guess you haven't checked how much would that actually cost you if you had to take e.g. a 10km commute every day by calling a taxi (or Uber).
The low wage workers around these parts have figured out how to avoid needing the cost of owning multiple cars per household, they ride share with other employees to the work site. Each morning you see the planned pickups occurring on their sharp little schedules, stopping no more than a few seconds for the waiting worker before heading off again. Sharing all the costs of fuel, parking, etc makes it much more affordable while still retaining most of the benefits of a direct journey at the required time.

Through my life I've car pooled, caught public transport, used the company bus, walked, cycled, and combined all of those travel modes in various combinations to get to and from work. Not everyone can access public transport but it sure is convenient (and usually cheap) when you can, thats all part of the decision making which should be going in to deciding where to live and work. I wouldn't want to live in an environment where I'm dependent on having a car but some people are happy to choose that for their own reasons.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 09:59:20 pm
Sorry but it is you comming up with statements like its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric. Please provide some solid numbers to back that up! I don't care about your opinion.
The data is easy to find, daily travel distances per vehicle/person are not pushing the limits of an electric car with a 200km range. We can find well presented data with distributions of the daily travel distance:
https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/ (https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/)
https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/ (https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/)
So the probability that two people in the same household require on the same day separate vehicles each with a range exceeding 200km is tiny. You can even find comprehensive analysis here:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371)
One 400km range electric car would satisfy as a substitute for 80% of the households with multiple cars without any adaption or change in their behaviours.
So it doesn't work for 20% (1 out of 5). That isn't extremely rare like you told us.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 10:07:21 pm
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.

That only works if people can charge their cars at home. In densely populated areas that is impossible and people will depend on 'fast' charging stations. I have to park my car in the street. If I want to charge an EV from home I'd need an extention cord which is at least 50 meters long.

That greatly depends on how many miles you drive and how you value your own safety. My current car (a Ford) is near the 320k km/ 200k miles mark. What is needed to get another 160k km/ 100k miles out of it are: a new timing belt, new clutch, new shock absorbers (safety), airco overhaul (safety) and some other stuff like brake fluid and new power steering hydraulic lines. That will set me back around 1700 euro which is way more than the car is worth.  OTOH the car starts to rust at the wheel arches, the engine is using some oil, the gas mileage isn't that great and there is no guarantee nothing else vital will break down (over here we have annual mandatory vehicle checks which a car must pass to be road legal). All in all it is more sensible for me to stretch usage into 2019 and look for a different car then (which brings me back to my wife having an equivalent car we can use the same way so no hurry). I'm eyeballing a newer model with a 1 litre turbocharged engine but I need more info on reliability and issues. A newer car is likely to have safety improvements like ESP.
Ok so electric probably won't work for you, but as with the solar road thread I've noticed you are prone to assuming that because something doesn't work for you, it can't possibly work for most other people.There are millions and millions of people who can simply plug in at night, even if you can't.
But now you are doing what you are accusing me for doing: because it works for you, it can work for many. All I'm saying is that you have to be carefull because the situation varies a lot by area and country so you can't have a one-size-fits-all solution.

Quote
I value my safety quite a lot, it's the reason I drive a Volvo. My '87 got rear ended by a tanker semi that was going ~50 mph while I was stopped, once everything came to a stop I opened the door, got out and walked away without so much as a scratch. Despite being 30 years old the car performed absolutely flawlessly, the crumple zones and reinforced cage did exactly what they were designed to do. Being old doesn't mean unsafe.
Volvo is known for their safety in the pre-Ford years. Still features like ABS and ESP do make a difference. A couple of months ago I nearly ran into someone who ignored a red light at an intersection. Thanks to ABS I could brake hard and still steer the car around the other car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 30, 2017, 10:33:09 pm
Sorry but it is you comming up with statements like its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric. Please provide some solid numbers to back that up! I don't care about your opinion.
The data is easy to find, daily travel distances per vehicle/person are not pushing the limits of an electric car with a 200km range. We can find well presented data with distributions of the daily travel distance:
https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/ (https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/)
https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/ (https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/)
So the probability that two people in the same household require on the same day separate vehicles each with a range exceeding 200km is tiny. You can even find comprehensive analysis here:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371)
One 400km range electric car would satisfy as a substitute for 80% of the households with multiple cars without any adaption or change in their behaviours.
So it doesn't work for 20% (1 out of 5). That isn't extremely rare like you told us.
Thats 20% would need to make some changes to their routine on some days of the year, which brings me back to the point I keep making:
pointing out that with just a little change to the existing transport plans the majority of people could replace one of their multiple cars with an electric vehicle, yes there will be some changes and the occasional rare day/event that can't be covered but rental cars, borrowing vehicles, or changing behaviours are possible solutions.
That excellent research I pointed you to noted that 80% of households could replace their 2nd car with an electric vehicle of only 220km range and still have at worst 12 days a year requiring an "adaption". Or with the 300km range electric vehicle 80% of households could operate without any adaption to their vehicle use. Since you don't appear to have read the paper you know what an adaption could include? Charing a vehicle during the day....   as if no one ever fills their petrol car with fuel during the day and the car would never be parked anywhere it could be charged. You could find arbitrary points of XX% of households for particular range vehicles and rates of adaption but the paper only reports up to 80%.

Having a few days a year that might have to be planned differently for a minority of households are extremely rare events, not a routine challenge that prevents the uptake of electric cars, and not something that is impossible to plan around. You can flip it around and say that an electric car owner wouldn't want to replace their vehicle with a petrol engine because they don't want to travel to petrol stations, with either type of vehicle there is some planning required to operate it within its capabilities and you plan journeys around that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 10:45:18 pm
This greatly depends on how you calculate TCO and I assume these numbers only look at purchase price and maintenance costs during the first few years and not the entire usefull life of a car. If you calculate TCO over the first 100k km (the typical lease period over here) then the depreciation is a large chunk. If I take my own car as an example. It cost nearly 28k euro when new and when I bought it with around 140k km I paid 5k euro. That means that the previous owners paid over 16 cents per km for just the depreciation. I OTOH pay around 3 cents per km in depreciation. It is unclear how that equation works out for an EV. If a used EV is going to need a new battery pack it may be worth a negative number by the time the first owner is going to buy a new car.
When the original Prius came out I predicted a catastrophe. I was certain that within 10 years there would be piles of them in junkyards with nothing more than dead batteries which cost $10k at the time. Turns out I was wrong, the batteries in the Prius turned out to be very reliable, I know of multiple 1st gen models still running the original battery and replacement batteries have dropped down to around $2k. The battery replacement cost is a concern for pure electrics but I'm not going to be too quick to predict doom and gloom, the last time I did that I was wrong.
True but it is something to consider when purchasing a used EV. It would make life easier if there is some way to read the state of health of a battery pack. Unfortunately that technology is still under development. I had a similar issue when buying my current car. My previous cars had diesel engines and the last one suffered quite a few engine related issues common for that model. All in all modern diesels have become relatively unreliable beyond the first 150k km and expensive to repair so I didn't want to take the risk and bought a car which runs on gasoline. It is more expensive to run but I don't risk needing to spend several thousands on engine repairs which cannot be predicted. Just like a battery you can't see how far an engine is worn and what is about to fail from the outside. You can only go by looking at problems which happen often and choose to take the chance or not.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SeanB on December 30, 2017, 11:10:01 pm
High density housing will pretty much soon mean you will be doing some form of public transport, or uber or other such non metered taxi service, where the supplier will have the infrastructure to charge an EV in off peak periods, and thus you will not really need the personal vehicle but will time share. Here where there are long distances, the electric vehicle or hybrid is still a good match, as most people typically do up to 100km in a day maximum, and for longer rare trips you are frankly a lot better off renting a vehicle for that.

If I need to move something big I will just go to the Whynott service station 15km away from me, and rent a "Whynott Rent a Bakkie" for a hourly rate or daily rate. No associated costs with depreciation, servicing, insurance and all you have is the well used Toyota/ Isuzu or Nissan with a full tank of fuel, and when you are finished you drive it back, fill up again at the garage, park it literally 5m away from the pump, go pay with your credit card and away you go. Rent for a month a year and still come out ahead on a rental vehicle.

That's very much a fantasy. Yes, you may not need a car to commute to work everyday if the public transport works because you live in the middle of a large city and have a good paying job (so you can afford renting  the car occasionally too).  But we are far from public transport being ubiquitous, going everywhere where needed (and not only where there are enough paying clients to make it profitable) and it still doesn't cover long distance travel.

Using "Uber" or renting a car works great in theory - if you are rich enough to be able to afford it. I suggest you visit e.g. one of the Parisian suburbs (which I live some 40minutes from) and tell the people there they should get rid of their old polluting cars and call a taxi/Uber or rent a car. These suburbs or "banlieues" are usually full of blocks of flats, being typically homes of low income families.

Only few of these suburbs are served by train/public transport, so the car is often the only option how to actually get the 10-20km to work. There is also little to no infrastructure there (schools, hospitals, shopping, etc., certainly no car rental or even self-service car sharing - that is only downtown), so again, without a car you are screwed. And most people living in the blocks of flats there are low wage laborers (if they have work at all), so very ill suited to renting a car or taking a taxi to work every day. I guess you haven't checked how much would that actually cost you if you had to take e.g. a 10km commute every day by calling a taxi (or Uber).
The low wage workers around these parts have figured out how to avoid needing the cost of owning multiple cars per household, they ride share with other employees to the work site. Each morning you see the planned pickups occurring on their sharp little schedules, stopping no more than a few seconds for the waiting worker before heading off again. Sharing all the costs of fuel, parking, etc makes it much more affordable while still retaining most of the benefits of a direct journey at the required time.

Through my life I've car pooled, caught public transport, used the company bus, walked, cycled, and combined all of those travel modes in various combinations to get to and from work. Not everyone can access public transport but it sure is convenient (and usually cheap) when you can, thats all part of the decision making which should be going in to deciding where to live and work. I wouldn't want to live in an environment where I'm dependent on having a car but some people are happy to choose that for their own reasons.

The vast majority of the people here in South Africa use public transport, with relatively few being able to afford to either own or run a vehicle, unless they are in the small section that is the middle class. The average commute for them can be 2 different taxis every day to work and another 2 in the afternoon, and there are a good number who wake up, catch a minibus taxi to a train station, catch a 2 hour train to a hub and then catch another taxi to work. Some of the people i work with wake up each morning at 4AM to catch a 4H30 train, then get to the city at 7AM and walk to work, and in the afternoon they only get home after 7PM. Others do a one way trip of 50km plus to work in a minibus taxi every day. they will never be able to afford a car, though the children might be able to do so one day, and will often be there to drop off the parents in a lift club if they can make it to the vanishing middle class.

Just remember the world is not all composed of the EU or USA, the vast majoritory of people will never ever be able to afford a vehicle of their own, and in most cases they will never travel in a vehicle that is not also moving 10 others or more as well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: jonovid on December 31, 2017, 12:43:40 am
mainstream? probably not with today's technology,  however as a cheap runabout shopping trolley.
when cheap electric cars  get recycled as an aluminium can on wheels.
a $15.000 disposable electric production car. that has
less automation = millennials, need to learn how to drive a car, 
no power steering, no power windows ,less doors less glass   
a 3 door hatchback, no in car entertainment system. that's an extra.
lower gearing 95kmh max speed. =  less powerful motors. 80 km range. its a four seat shopping trolley.

tesla designs are too up market.  to expensive to be mainstream.
 if you can afford a tesla you can also afford a 4x4 suv with towing capacity.
 life is about the long weekend down under.  ;D
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2017, 02:23:45 am
mainstream? probably not with today's technology,  however as a cheap runabout shopping trolley.
when cheap electric cars  get recycled as an aluminium can on wheels.
a $15.000 disposable electric production car. that has
less automation = millennials, need to learn how to drive a car, 
no power steering, no power windows ,less doors less glass   
a 3 door hatchback, no in car entertainment system. that's an extra.
lower gearing 95kmh max speed. =  less powerful motors. 80 km range. its a four seat shopping trolley.
That already exists and is called a golf cart. I've seen these being used for just what you describe.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on December 31, 2017, 02:54:00 am
Electrics will be fairly niche for the foreseeable future barring some drastic price drop (don't see that happening bar a new battery innovation), massive government subsidies, or a huge oil shock.
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.
I can clearly see that points of view really depends per country/continent. (in general from comments in this topic)

In dense and highly populated European areas, most people think electric is the way to go. (me included)
There has been done a lot of research and over 80-90% of the people only use a car for daily commuting.
Which is in most cases an average around 20-50km (max). You charge your car at night, go to work the next day.
I know many people happily doing that for years now. Which is VERY convenient actually.
No hassle with fueling up on time etc.

This are also exactly the distances were fuel based engines perform not so well.
In these dense areas they are even trying pilots that people don't really own a car anymore, but that you can just use a car that's parked.
Kind of renting a car on the fly. Once again, this works great in big cities or areas with heaps of people.
That's also were the most pollution is coming from.
Rural Australia is a very different story.

I find your argument about 'convenience' pretty weak. It's just a matter of different thinking.
There are pros and cons to both solution, and I don't think in a sense of convenience neither is better or worse, it's just different.
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.

The main issue is that I don't understand why it's one or the other.
You can have both technologies, just depending on the needs of the customer.
I also wouldn't trust an electric car in the middle of the outback in Australia with barely any charge points.
Go to London, Berlin etc and it's a very different story.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2017, 03:19:12 am
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on December 31, 2017, 03:22:18 am
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SiliconWizard on December 31, 2017, 06:43:07 am
mainstream? probably not with today's technology,  however as a cheap runabout shopping trolley.
(...)
tesla designs are too up market.  to expensive to be mainstream.
 if you can afford a tesla you can also afford a 4x4 suv with towing capacity.

Agree with that.

People also have to realize that Tesla would probably not be alive anymore by now had it not benefited from large government subsidies of all kinds, direct (see below) and indirect (tax cuts and credits to buyers in a lot of countries).
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html)

For electric vehicles to get out of niche markets and become a sustainable business, we need to solve drastic energy issues. Pretty much the same as for energy in general in the future before our whole economy collapses.

A lot of countries already try getting people to lower their electricity consumption. Maintream electric cars would make it explode. How could that ever work? We have to solve the underlying issue first.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gmb42 on December 31, 2017, 08:24:12 am
A viewpoint on when the likely crossover point on EV vs. ICE costs might occur is in this lengthy article (https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/25/timeline-electric-vehicle-revolution-via-lower-battery-prices-supercharging-lower-battery-prices/).

TLDR; battery costs coming down due to economies of scale in production, charge times decreasing due to incremental battery technology improvements and higher power charging stations (350kW), ICE production costs to go up due to emission controls leading to parity by 2024-25 for nearly all car segments.

Note that CleanTechnica are pro-EV, but at least there are numbers in the article that can be somewhat objectively discussed.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2017, 10:59:01 am
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list. From what I've read on car related fora is that people tend to look mainly at fuel economy when buying a car which is used for commuting.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on December 31, 2017, 11:04:09 am
We have to solve the underlying issue first.
Than we can close this whole topic straight away.
The underlying issue is that we are with WAY to many people on this planet.
That's gonna be around 10 billions in 2050.

That's 1.3 times as much as today.

Btw, there is much MORE than just plain battery costs and all these little details.
It's also about infrastructure and simply about the fact that after a while fossil fuels are just not really gonna last anymore.
Moving fuel to a petrol station costs labor, a lot of equipment (using fuel to get fuel somewhere  |O), and is sometimes even pretty dangerous (flammable).
Electricity doesn't have these downsides and is cheaper to 'make in bulk' (means; easier to make electricity and distribute)

But personally I think the most important reason, is that the western world (Europe) is a lot less dependent from oil, that mostly comes from the middle east and Russia.
So there are some (good) political reasons for it as well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: dr.diesel on December 31, 2017, 11:18:14 am
That already exists and is called a golf cart. I've seen these being used for just what you describe.

I have an electric Golf Cart and use it extensively for local utility work, surpub for the task.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 31, 2017, 12:48:34 pm
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list.
Which neatly brings us right back to the point that when you're travelling long distances there is usually more than one person in the car so their "daily" car doesn't need to have those capabilities. Either you're both needing to travel long distances independently at which point charging while taking breaks is a good idea, or you're travelling with another person who isn't using their vehicle and you can pick the most appropriate for the particular journey.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2017, 01:12:49 pm
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list.
Which neatly brings us right back to the point that when you're travelling long distances there is usually more than one person in the car so their "daily" car doesn't need to have those capabilities. Either you're both needing to travel long distances independently at which point charging while taking breaks is a good idea, or you're travelling with another person who isn't using their vehicle and you can pick the most appropriate for the particular journey.
I my situation it doesn't work that way. It can depend on all kind of things like needing a repair (car temporary out of order), the car needs to be washed, there is still has some luggage inside, different kind/state of tyres, not wanting to make too many kilometers with one particular car to postpone purchase, etc, etc which car gets used most.

Having 1.5 cars instead of 2 will limit your freedom no matter how you turn it around. The article you linked to earlier states that very clear. And need I remind you people buy cars based on 1% of their usage scenario so how likely is it they are going to adapt? If they would be willing to adapt they would already have bought a smaller (cheaper & more limited) car. Ergo your assumption people want to 'make do' with an electric go-kart is wrong because there is a distinct difference between 'can do' and 'willing to do'.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 31, 2017, 02:04:24 pm
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list.
Which neatly brings us right back to the point that when you're travelling long distances there is usually more than one person in the car so their "daily" car doesn't need to have those capabilities. Either you're both needing to travel long distances independently at which point charging while taking breaks is a good idea, or you're travelling with another person who isn't using their vehicle and you can pick the most appropriate for the particular journey.
I my situation it doesn't work that way. It can depend on all kind of things like needing a repair (car temporary out of order), the car needs to be washed, there is still has some luggage inside, different kind/state of tyres, not wanting to make too many kilometers with one particular car to postpone purchase, etc, etc which car gets used most.

Having 1.5 cars instead of 2 will limit your freedom no matter how you turn it around. The article you linked to earlier states that very clear. And need I remind you people buy cars based on 1% of their usage scenario so how likely is it they are going to adapt? If they would be willing to adapt they would already have bought a smaller (cheaper & more limited) car. Ergo your assumption people want to 'make do' with an electric go-kart is wrong because there is a distinct difference between 'can do' and 'willing to do'.
Except we're at the point now where electric cars are available at many price/model points equivalent to many different fuel powered cars and the primary difference is they have a limited range and slower energy filling/charging, so its not a comparison to a "lesser" car 0.5 as you say but the same car with a different fuel source. You've continually tried to frame electric cars as inferior in some way without direct comparisons to similar vehicles. As the paper pointed to there is no need for most people to adapt, they already use their cars in a way that is compatible with an electric vehicle.

TCO varies significantly from region to region and may swing either way for particular people which is true of cars in general and the petrol/diesel divisions.

You're welcome to have redundant vehicles with identical capabilities as your choice but trying to project that view onto everyone else is obnoxious, especially when we've been able to present the data to show how wrong your point of view has been.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on January 01, 2018, 01:15:27 am
We can all come up with little personal and individual reasons.
The way how the market works is look at the bigger numbers.
Like I said before, how are most cars being used and how can you cut the most significant number from that.
90% of all cars are being used by just one person only (yes, using a >1000kg machine to move 70kg person)

In that perspective an electric car works much better than a combustion engine.
Add safety and noise pollution to it as well. (although a big junk is mostly because of the noise from the tires, a significant part is still the engine)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2018, 01:45:51 am
We can all come up with little personal and individual reasons.
The way how the market works is look at the bigger numbers.
Like I said before, how are most cars being used and how can you cut the most significant number from that.
90% of all cars are being used by just one person only (yes, using a >1000kg machine to move 70kg person)
What you see nowadays is that electric cars get bought by people to whom an electric car is beneficial. Saying that an electric car works for nearly everyone with the big IF they change the way they use the car is just plain wrong. In such a situation an electric car basically gets degraded to a make-do crutch and is similar to advising people to use a horse & carriage instead of a proper car. If you look on car related fora at why people buy a certain car the 1% usage scenario is at the top of the requirements list so a car which can't do what is important to the buyer isn't going to fit the requirements. It is as simple as that. Nearly good enough isn't good enough.

All in all let the market do its job indeed and when better/cheaper/more versatile electric cars become available more people will buy them.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on January 01, 2018, 02:19:30 am
We can all come up with little personal and individual reasons.
The way how the market works is look at the bigger numbers.
Like I said before, how are most cars being used and how can you cut the most significant number from that.
90% of all cars are being used by just one person only (yes, using a >1000kg machine to move 70kg person)
What you see nowadays is that electric cars get bought by people to whom an electric car is beneficial. Saying that an electric car works for nearly everyone with the big IF they change the way they use the car is just plain wrong. In such a situation an electric car basically gets degraded to a make-do crutch and is similar to advising people to use a horse & carriage instead of a proper car. If you look on car related fora at why people buy a certain car the 1% usage scenario is at the top of the requirements list so a car which can't do what is important to the buyer isn't going to fit the requirements. It is as simple as that. Nearly good enough isn't good enough.

All in all let the market do its job indeed and when better/cheaper/more versatile electric cars become available more people will buy them.
I agree with you, but keep in mind that the government also has a big part in this for multiple reasons.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Blocco on January 03, 2018, 01:15:40 am
Looking at many of the posts here I was beginning to think the title of this thread was; "100 contrived reasons why YOU don't want an electric car" :-//

To reply to the original question, I think, here in the UK, we will see a significant increase in popularity within 5 years and mainstream acceptance i.e. where two-car families typically own at least one electric car in around 10 years.

However, in the UK at least, now is probably the best time to drive an electric car because of low second-hand prices and substantial running cost savings compared to a petrol or diesel vehicle. My 2015 Nissan LEAF saves me around £2000 ukp per year compared to my previous diesel car and is far more suited to the daily commute, it's the closest thing to free driving we are ever likely to see.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on January 03, 2018, 02:57:56 am
However, in the UK at least, now is probably the best time to drive an electric car because of low second-hand prices and substantial running cost savings compared to a petrol or diesel vehicle. My 2015 Nissan LEAF saves me around £2000 ukp per year compared to my previous diesel car and is far more suited to the daily commute, it's the closest thing to free driving we are ever likely to see.
Most European countries developed a model of massive taxation on transportation fuel to fund their transport infrastructure. They are always going to need that money which current electric car users are saving. As the electric car market grows it will be interesting to see how they try to manage the transition from subsidising electric cars as a stimulus, to clawing enough cash from electric car users to fund the roads.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 03, 2018, 08:06:54 am
However, in the UK at least, now is probably the best time to drive an electric car because of low second-hand prices and substantial running cost savings compared to a petrol or diesel vehicle. My 2015 Nissan LEAF saves me around £2000 ukp per year compared to my previous diesel car and is far more suited to the daily commute, it's the closest thing to free driving we are ever likely to see.
Most European countries developed a model of massive taxation on transportation fuel to fund their transport infrastructure. They are always going to need that money which current electric car users are saving. As the electric car market grows it will be interesting to see how they try to manage the transition from subsidising electric cars as a stimulus, to clawing enough cash from electric car users to fund the roads.
Thats an ageing myth, are you perhaps a time traveller from 1937?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motoring_taxation_in_the_United_Kingdom (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motoring_taxation_in_the_United_Kingdom)
Because thats when the segregation of funds ended and the income entered general revenue. Though it seems the UK continues to use these sources as a cash cow:
http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/consumer-news/89224/only-a-quarter-of-car-tax-is-spent-on-roads (http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/consumer-news/89224/only-a-quarter-of-car-tax-is-spent-on-roads)
2018 has 31.7 billion (3.9%) noted for the transport budget, 11.4 billion of that going to railways which leaves much less than 15 billion (2%) total for roads. These don't dominate the budget and it will be easy to find other taxation to cover the loss of fuel taxes, just changing the vehicle excise duty slowly over time so that electric vehicles also pay their share will do it. The more difficult part is trying to match some sort of user pays scale so that people pay proportionally for what they're using such as with distance and axle load factors.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 03, 2018, 11:48:44 am
It could be argued that electric cars already *are* mainstream, at least in more affluent techy areas. Here on the outskirts of Seattle I have 3 good friends who all have pure electric cars as their daily driver. One is a Chevy Bolt and the other two are Kias. Then there are two coworkers and my dad who have them, Ford Focus electric I think is one, and Nissan Leafs. I don't personally know anyone who has a Tesla but I see them on the road pretty much every day, electric cars are all over the place.

An electric with a 50 mile range could easily work for 95% of my driving which is my commute to work and various errands, for longer trips I could borrow my partner's car or drive one of my classics, failing that I could rent a car for those very rare occasions when nobody I know could loan me one. If I didn't love driving my old Volvo wagon so much I'd seriously consider an electric. Putting gas in my paid-for car is cheaper than making payments on anything new but if I had any intention of ever buying a new car anyway the economics and convenience factor would be in favor of electric.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 03, 2018, 01:11:08 pm
Electric / gas hybrid cars are pretty common where I live and have been for a long time. Electric only cars much less so but I still see them fairly often.  Location: An eastern US suburb near a major city.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on January 03, 2018, 07:23:40 pm
Well, there are other things to consider:
So, never trust a statistic you haven´t falsified yourself, or in other words: range estimates need to take such things as climate and degrading into account. Additionally the technical feasability to use an electric daily driver alone is only a part of a whole ecosystem, even if most parts are absolutely the same technology.
It will take a while to overcome a certain critical mass so that e.g. running repair shops for electrical cars are as widespread that people have some trust in using that technology. Most car mechanics repell new stuff for a while and rather avoid working on that until they have no other chance. Discussing how reliable a manufacturers support alone will be is a bit counter-intuitive, this and many other forums are the best proof that self help is often preferred over being dependent on warranty or goodwill. The product can be as good as it can be, but it will usually be designed for an ideal customer or for certain focus groups and that is a problem in the used car market.

Yet those cars need to be as safe as possible (even better than average), without making mistakes by rushing it just to have it shipped. A few incidents caused by technical problems are enough to ruin a whole concept or manufacturer by loss of trust. To ensure success, that also translates into higher production cost, making a new concept less competitive.

Those are at least my two cents on that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on January 03, 2018, 08:31:29 pm
Think I've said this before but the major issues are:

Not having a dedicated driveway or garage at which to charge the car is a pretty fundamental problem. Many Scottish houses do not, and even the new ones are often built with separate shared parking. The problem there would be that an illegal parker in your space means no use of the car tomorrow.

Not everyone is a commuter. Some people only use their cars for longer distance journeys. Even with a 200 mile range, as soon as you go beyond 100 miles you risk being stranded if there are no charge points. Or if they are all in use.

The cost of a hotel room for an overnight charging stop totally outweighs any fuel cost saving. (and when you consider the extra energy used in an overnight stop, overall energy use is probably more than returning home with an IC engine)

The majority of the car market is for used cars. Buying new is very expensive in terms of depreciation.  Used electric cars will be a big gamble due to battery condition questions.

We are constantly being told to turn off lights to save the limited amount of energy provided by renewables. One electric car motor, 2000 lightbulbs or more. No calculator needed for this one. It is simply unsustainable to add transport to the demands placed on renewables.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on January 03, 2018, 10:23:46 pm
Think I've said this before but the major issues are:

Not having a dedicated driveway or garage at which to charge the car is a pretty fundamental problem. Many Scottish houses do not, and even the new ones are often built with separate shared parking. The problem there would be that an illegal parker in your space means no use of the car tomorrow.

Not everyone is a commuter. Some people only use their cars for longer distance journeys. Even with a 200 mile range, as soon as you go beyond 100 miles you risk being stranded if there are no charge points. Or if they are all in use.

The cost of a hotel room for an overnight charging stop totally outweighs any fuel cost saving. (and when you consider the extra energy used in an overnight stop, overall energy use is probably more than returning home with an IC engine)

The majority of the car market is for used cars. Buying new is very expensive in terms of depreciation.  Used electric cars will be a big gamble due to battery condition questions.

We are constantly being told to turn off lights to save the limited amount of energy provided by renewables. One electric car motor, 2000 lightbulbs or more. No calculator needed for this one. It is simply unsustainable to add transport to the demands placed on renewables.
In the Netherlands the have the same issue with parking.
What's being developed here is just shared charge areas. So multiple cars can charge.
Therefore you don't need your private parking spot.

Not everyone is a commuter, but like said before, the numbers show that more than 90% is a commuter.
I guess the car market really depends where you're from than, because here most cars are new or just 2nd hand cars that are less than 2 years old.

Your last comparison is totally absurd (sorry for saying it that blunt). You need to compare it how much energy and emissions combustion engines produce.
According to new regulation most countries are not gonna pass them if they don't change anything about it at all.
Besides, the amount of fuel (oil) is limited and will be gone at some point, so do we have a choice?

It's not a matter IF electric cars will become mainstream. Most governments WILL make sure the become mainstream because they don't have a choice.
And I think for the long distance an hybrid electric-hydrogen car would be pretty awesome.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on January 04, 2018, 02:02:06 am
Think I've said this before but the major issues are:

Not having a dedicated driveway or garage at which to charge the car is a pretty fundamental problem. Many Scottish houses do not, and even the new ones are often built with separate shared parking. The problem there would be that an illegal parker in your space means no use of the car tomorrow.

Things can change!

If there's enough demand then parking spots can be designated as "electric only" between certain hours of the day. The number of spots can increase with time.

Something similar already happens here in Spain for disabled people. If you're disabled you can apply for a parking spot next to where you live, the council will assign you a bit of road and paint it yellow for you.

We are constantly being told to turn off lights to save the limited amount of energy provided by renewables. One electric car motor, 2000 lightbulbs or more. No calculator needed for this one. It is simply unsustainable to add transport to the demands placed on renewables.

Demand is uneven. Cars can be charged at night when people are in bed.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 04, 2018, 04:42:13 am
Besides, the amount of fuel (oil) is limited and will be gone at some point, so do we have a choice?
Bio-fuels based on agricultural waste will fill that void. My prediction is that electric cars will never fully replace cars with a combustion engine. In Brazil for example a significant portion of the fuel used is bio-fuel.
Quote
I guess the car market really depends where you're from than, because here most cars are new or just 2nd hand cars that are less than 2 years old.
You should brush up your statistics. The average age of a car in the Netherlands is 10.2 years old.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on January 04, 2018, 06:08:40 am
That doensn't scale.
In many cases it's not "agricultural waste", but actively planted.
This means it robs surface from food culture!
For example in the cases of rapeseed or Soybean oil, or corn....
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on January 04, 2018, 08:22:54 am
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
If you wanna destroy nature anyway, than just stick to fossil fuels, Than at least we have some beautiful forests. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 04, 2018, 09:08:32 am
That doensn't scale.
In many cases it's not "agricultural waste", but actively planted.
This means it robs surface from food culture!
For example in the cases of rapeseed or Soybean oil, or corn....
All true, but it can be made from non-food sources or food production wastes that otherwise have little use:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagasse
Of course at the moment they're burnt and in a biomass power plant this is sold as "green" energy. Energy demands of many nations don't fit their available renewable resources so the general problem is people wanting to use more energy than is available long term.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 04, 2018, 09:12:59 am
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
There are some good ideas which could produce resources from otherwise low value land, aquaculture in arid/desert areas is very interesting and there is active research in production of biofuels in such ways:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algae_fuel
If it scales up to industrial efficiencies then this could be another part of the energy supply.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 04, 2018, 10:15:06 am
The relative price of electricity to fossil fuels, is important. Both can change, and there are other costs and factors too, as we've seen in our various discussions.

Many of the factors are complicated.  The big picture is quite complicated.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 04, 2018, 10:19:51 am
The relative price of electricity to fossil fuels, is important. Both can change, and there are other costs and factors too, as we've seen in our various discussions.

Many of the factors are complicated.  The big picture is quite complicated.
On current prices an electric vehicle is a cheaper option for many people (hard to quantify exactly how many but the majority of countries have cheaper electricity than liquid fuels) which means that electric cars are now viable and mainstream. All the major brands are getting on board and not just the exclusive to California models they had in the past to meet the local regulations.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 04, 2018, 10:57:00 am
Electricity is quite a lot cheaper than gasoline or diesel in every place I've ever looked. Otherwise people would be generating their own electricity using gasoline or diesel generators but they don't outside of emergencies because it ends up being absurdly expensive per kWh.

This thread contains a ridiculous number of excuses and mental gymnastics over why something can't possibly work, when quite obviously it does work for a great many people and can work for many more. There seems to be a fallacy that we must put all our eggs in one basket so to speak, and settle on one single technology to meet all our needs. Electric cars are simply another available tool for the task of getting around, they're a tool that will work for some people and not others but we are nowhere even close to saturating the market of those for whom it is practically ideal. Once that happens then we can talk about what makes the most sense for those where it is not so clear.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: thm_w on January 04, 2018, 12:05:43 pm
True but it is something to consider when purchasing a used EV. It would make life easier if there is some way to read the state of health of a battery pack. Unfortunately that technology is still under development. I had a similar issue when buying my current car. My previous cars had diesel engines and the last one suffered quite a few engine related issues common for that model. All in all modern diesels have become relatively unreliable beyond the first 150k km and expensive to repair so I didn't want to take the risk and bought a car which runs on gasoline. It is more expensive to run but I don't risk needing to spend several thousands on engine repairs which cannot be predicted. Just like a battery you can't see how far an engine is worn and what is about to fail from the outside. You can only go by looking at problems which happen often and choose to take the chance or not.

You can get a very good idea on a nissan leaf with a cheap ODB adapter and the leaf spy app (shows capacity and number of charges, etc.).
Even looking at the expected range and available bars on the UI will tell you a bit about battery condition. You can also look at the car history report, if the car was originally used in a very warm climate the battery could be degraded.

Neither of these issues is a problem when you buy within the 8yr/100k battery warranty. If the capacity drops below ~75%, you would be covered.
Considering the cheapest car maintenance you can get is a Toyota at $5.5k/10 years (https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/the-most-and-least-expensive-cars-to-maintain-by-maddy-martin (https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/the-most-and-least-expensive-cars-to-maintain-by-maddy-martin)), having to replace the battery for $5.5k is not unreasonable (of course get a good one if you can, and in a moderate climate it will last more than 10 years).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 04, 2018, 12:18:41 pm
Electricity is quite a lot cheaper than gasoline or diesel in every place I've ever looked. Otherwise people would be generating their own electricity using gasoline or diesel generators but they don't outside of emergencies because it ends up being absurdly expensive per kWh.
Conversion efficiency has to be accounted for somewhere, but right now (as in today) in Melbourne energy pricing is:

Domestic "Gas" 7c/kWh
Vehicle LPG 11c/kWh
Petrol/Diesel 14c/kWh
E85 ethanol 17c/kWh
Electricity 25c/kWh

Those are the prices that we buy the energy for as a consumer, hiding in there are taxes, supply charges, and many complexities. Trigeneration is quite cost effective for premises that have the demand scale for it. Right now an electric car generally doesn't make sense economically in Australia especially a large and heavy long range one:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/problems-if-we-all-had-tesla-cars/msg705793/#msg705793 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/problems-if-we-all-had-tesla-cars/msg705793/#msg705793)
Smaller short range vehicles do make sense as they can be lighter and more energy efficient.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on January 04, 2018, 12:24:34 pm
Electricity is quite a lot cheaper than gasoline or diesel in every place I've ever looked. Otherwise people would be generating their own electricity using gasoline or diesel generators but they don't outside of emergencies because it ends up being absurdly expensive per kWh.
Exactly, price and cost are two separate things and usually people forget that on a small scale everyone optimizes individual gain, whereas on a large scale the total cost calculation is important (including each and everything related to it).

Quote
This thread contains a ridiculous number of excuses and mental gymnastics over why something can't possibly work, when quite obviously it does work for a great many people and can work for many more. There seems to be a fallacy that we must put all our eggs in one basket so to speak, and settle on one single technology to meet all our needs. Electric cars are simply another available tool for the task of getting around, they're a tool that will work for some people and not others but we are nowhere even close to saturating the market of those for whom it is practically ideal. Once that happens then we can talk about what makes the most sense for those where it is not so clear.
The difference between these arguments is in the question. What can work does not automatically make it mainstream.
It usually leads to moral vantage points and no result if such a discussion is based on bad examples as guideline if something is feasible at all, mixed with a different concept of what mainstream really means and how things scale.

I often wonder how many people actually regard that there is a value chain from pork to sausage (so to speak). Your average grocery store bought items went through extensive filtering and excess which might lead to the assumption things are better or scarce than they actually are. IMHO this is usually achieved by a strong increase of waste (again, difference between price & cost). Observing such developments in terms of energy contained or converted is a good method to get back to the total costs as a guideline.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 04, 2018, 12:28:44 pm
Conversion efficiency is a very important detail though when you figure electric motors can easily reach 90% efficiency while internal combustion engines used in cars top out at what, around 35% efficiency? Generating electricity in a central plant using one or more very large generators that run continuously at a significant percentage of their maximum capacity is far more efficient than running thousands of smaller engines spending much of their time at very light load, even when you factor in distribution losses.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 04, 2018, 12:55:47 pm
Conversion efficiency is a very important detail though when you figure electric motors can easily reach 90% efficiency while internal combustion engines used in cars top out at what, around 35% efficiency? Generating electricity in a central plant using one or more very large generators that run continuously at a significant percentage of their maximum capacity is far more efficient than running thousands of smaller engines spending much of their time at very light load, even when you factor in distribution losses.
But you skip the battery in wall to wheel efficiency, which for plugin electric cars ends up around 70-75% its easy to cherry pick which parts of the efficiency you do or don't count to make any specific example look good.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 04, 2018, 05:36:58 pm
But you skip the battery in wall to wheel efficiency, which for plugin electric cars ends up around 70-75% its easy to cherry pick which parts of the efficiency you do or don't count to make any specific example look good.


I wasn't deliberately skipping it, I just didn't feel like writing a novel. I'd be curious to see some actual data here, surely all of the necessary data is available. Everything I've read suggests that electric is significantly more efficient all things considered, but I don't have the numbers on hand. Let's not forget the energy involved in refining and transporting gasoline, how do those losses compare to losses in generating and transporting electricity. Certainly in areas like where I live where a significant percentage of our electricity comes from clean hydro power and little from fossil fuels tilts the advantage further toward electric.

Either way I don't want to see gas and diesel cars disappear, having additional fuel options available can only be a good thing. The more different energy sources we have the less overall impact a shortage of any one fuel has on society overall.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: EEVblog on January 04, 2018, 07:39:02 pm
You can get a very good idea on a nissan leaf with a cheap ODB adapter and the leaf spy app (shows capacity and number of charges, etc.).
Even looking at the expected range and available bars on the UI will tell you a bit about battery condition.

One bar lost can mean 15% capacity lost, 2 bars lost is 21.25% apparently, it's not linear.
Full data:
http://www.electricvehiclewiki.com/Battery_Capacity_Loss (http://www.electricvehiclewiki.com/Battery_Capacity_Loss)

The lithium manganese oxide used in the older model LEAF's had capacity loss issue. Was very common for Nissan to replace packs under warranty.

Some car battery technology loss data
http://jes.ecsdl.org/content/163/9/A1872/F2.large.jpg (http://jes.ecsdl.org/content/163/9/A1872/F2.large.jpg)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on January 05, 2018, 01:48:36 am
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
There are some good ideas which could produce resources from otherwise low value land, aquaculture in arid/desert areas is very interesting and there is active research in production of biofuels in such ways:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algae_fuel
If it scales up to industrial efficiencies then this could be another part of the energy supply.
I agree and there are some good bio alternatives.
Unfortunately it's not what practically is done at the moment right now.

The problem is that there is WAY to much interest and a big huge lobby in the fuel industry.
Ironically all these alternatives have been known for many years.
In fact, the whole concept of 'global warming' was already investigated and reported by scientist in the 60s and 70s.
but in a world were profit is more important than anything else, it a bit like  :horse:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on January 05, 2018, 02:03:39 am
But you skip the battery in wall to wheel efficiency, which for plugin electric cars ends up around 70-75% its easy to cherry pick which parts of the efficiency you do or don't count to make any specific example look good.
The battery does have losses during charging and discharging (it is heating up when doing so), i´d account around 80% each as a ballpark number for Li-Ion, so they are far away from perfect. Rectifier and VFD take their cut too.

To compare apples to apples... you buy fuel at the pump and electricity comes out the wall. But the fuel itself needed to be mined, transported and refined, each part taking a loss, times the efficiency of the actual consumer. Same goes for electric power of course.

35% efficiency is about right for a typical turbodiesel, 40% max or so, compared to calorific value of the fuel. But that only counts at the most economic operation point (load on the crankshaft and rpm-wise) in the BSFC and without transmission (95% for manual, 85% for conventional torque converter with partial use of the lockup). So on the road things look drastically different as long as the drivetrain is directly coupled to the engine.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 05, 2018, 06:39:37 am
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
If you wanna destroy nature anyway, than just stick to fossil fuels, Than at least we have some beautiful forests.
Get your facts straight. I wrote bio-fuel from agricultural waste. That is waste from plants we grow to produce food. From most plants we only eat the seeds or leafs which leaves a huge amount of bio material we don't eat. Using more of a plant may even make food more affordable! See poet-dsm.com
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 05, 2018, 07:00:11 am
Many people fall into the same trap with biofuels as with other alternate energy sources - assuming that for the source to be viable it must replace conventional sources 100% for everybody. Biofuel doesn't need to replace other fuels to be useful, it can supplement other fuels depending on availability. We should not be using viable food crops to produce fuel, but if we have excess crops or other bio substances that can be converted to fuel then by all means do so.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NANDBlog on January 05, 2018, 07:16:55 am
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
If you wanna destroy nature anyway, than just stick to fossil fuels, Than at least we have some beautiful forests.
Get your facts straight. I wrote bio-fuel from agricultural waste. That is waste from plants we grow to produce food. From most plants we only eat the seeds or leafs which leaves a huge amount of bio material we don't eat. Using more of a plant may even make food more affordable! See poet-dsm.com
My grandfather had a small land, and a winery. He told me that there is no such thing as agricultural waste. What you throw out, is what the land needs to make next year's crops (or wine).
So biofuel tries to solve the pollution problem in transportation, with agriculture. A different industry, which is actually generating more pollution than transportation.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 05, 2018, 08:15:34 am
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
If you wanna destroy nature anyway, than just stick to fossil fuels, Than at least we have some beautiful forests.
Get your facts straight. I wrote bio-fuel from agricultural waste. That is waste from plants we grow to produce food. From most plants we only eat the seeds or leafs which leaves a huge amount of bio material we don't eat. Using more of a plant may even make food more affordable! See poet-dsm.com
My grandfather had a small land, and a winery. He told me that there is no such thing as agricultural waste. What you throw out, is what the land needs to make next year's crops (or wine).
So biofuel tries to solve the pollution problem in transportation, with agriculture. A different industry, which is actually generating more pollution than transportation.
If your grandfather was that smart he could have saved Poet-DSM millions of dollars worth of useless investments  :palm:
The truth is somewhere in the middle. You can't leave too much waste on the land because fertilisation of land is a precise process to crow certain crops with maximum yield. According to Poet-DSM an optimum is reached when around 25% of the waste material is taken from the land.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 05, 2018, 08:42:34 am
You don't always have to grow crops specifically for fuel either, in developed nations huge amounts of food goes wasted, nobody will buy spoiled produce but some of it can be turned into usable fuel. Then in some cases there are crops that are much more productive or require much less effort or grow in places that are less than ideal for growing food, in that case it can make sense to grow something for fuel. At one time I recall reading some forms of algae showed promise.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on January 05, 2018, 09:32:15 am
The point is that there isn't enough waste to produce enough fuel.
So we do need use multiple solutions.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 05, 2018, 09:51:22 am
The point is that there isn't enough waste to produce enough fuel.
So we do need use multiple solutions.
I agree up to some point because the amount of waste c.q. land available for bio fuel depends greatly on the ratio of cars versus arable land (I wrote something similar a few posts above). The US for example may have enough agricultural waste to supply all the fuel they need if they can somehow manage to use cars with a way better mileage.

This also makes me wonder how this will work with the economy of scale when producing cars. The difference between the several types of fuel (liquid gas, petrol and diesel) don't need large changes to the body of the car. In case of an electric car the body needs to be stronger to hold the weight and offer space for the battery pack. It will be interesting to see how the electric cars from mainstream manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes and VW are going to be constructed.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: vk6zgo on January 05, 2018, 02:00:23 pm
Electricity is quite a lot cheaper than gasoline or diesel in every place I've ever looked. Otherwise people would be generating their own electricity using gasoline or diesel generators but they don't outside of emergencies because it ends up being absurdly expensive per kWh.

There are a lot of other things beside the fuel costs that mitigate against this, such as the first cost of a diesel or other IC generator,plus ancillary bits.
A generator that can handle most household uses 24/7 will be a fairly specialised device, hence will be expensive.
Fuel tanks need to meet Govt specifications, so will also be costly.
Add to that pollution laws, & the fact that Local Government Authorities would be very unlikely to permit such an installation, in the first place.
Quote
This thread contains a ridiculous number of excuses and mental gymnastics over why something can't possibly work, when quite obviously it does work for a great many people and can work for many more.

It works the other way, too .
The enthusiasts for electric cars, wave away real concerns, with "you will just have to adapt", or "you can have another long distance car", or "you can hire a car", or "sleep over at your destination" & so on.
People have real financial reasons for not doing these things.
Quote
There seems to be a fallacy that we must put all our eggs in one basket so to speak, and settle on one single technology to meet all our needs. Electric cars are simply another available tool for the task of getting around, they're a tool that will work for some people and not others but we are nowhere even close to saturating the market of those for whom it is practically ideal. Once that happens then we can talk about what makes the most sense for those where it is not so clear.
Any car is not going to be ideal, but some compromises are better than others
That is why, without a radical change in how our societies are ordered, I believe that electric vehicles still have a while to go before they will be the majority type of personal transport.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 05, 2018, 07:11:31 pm
There are a lot of other things beside the fuel costs that mitigate against this, such as the first cost of a diesel or other IC generator,plus ancillary bits.
A generator that can handle most household uses 24/7 will be a fairly specialised device, hence will be expensive.
Fuel tanks need to meet Govt specifications, so will also be costly.
Add to that pollution laws, & the fact that Local Government Authorities would be very unlikely to permit such an installation, in the first place.

I don't buy that for a second. If it were economical to generate power that way then everyone would have one, they would be mass produced in huge quantities and costs would drop. As it is you can get generators really cheap these days, most of my neighbors have them and I hate the cheap ones, power goes out and within 10 minutes I can't hear myself think over the din. The nice quiet inverter generators are much better but even so it's easy to work out the cost per kWh and it's not even close to competitive with what I get from the utility. Just for fun let's run some simple numbers here based on the Honda EU2000i I occasionally borrow from a friend. This is a high end inverter generator about as efficient as they come.

Fuel capacity is 0.95 US gallons of gas (petrol) and that is rated to run 3.4 hours at rated load of 2kW so 6.8 kWh per tank or 7.2 kWh per gallon.

Gasoline prices fluctuate frequently but currently in my area regular is about $2.91/gallon, so that means electricity generated by burning gasoline is about $0.40/kWh, ignoring the additional cost of collecting and transporting the fuel to my home. Electricity from the utility costs me a bit less than $0.09 per kWh so less than 1/4th the cost of generating it myself.

I think it's reasonable to assume that a really efficient diesel generator could perhaps double the fuel economy, resulting in a modest savings even factoring in the higher cost per gallon of diesel but still substantially more expensive than utility power.


Quote
It works the other way, too .
The enthusiasts for electric cars, wave away real concerns, with "you will just have to adapt", or "you can have another long distance car", or "you can hire a car", or "sleep over at your destination" & so on.
People have real financial reasons for not doing these things.

Nobody is saying that everyone is going to have to get an electric car or that it makes financial sense for everyone, or is convenient for everyone and that's fine. If everyone had them then we would have another set of problems but that doesn't mean there are not benefits to having a lot more of them than we do currently. It also doesn't mean that a lot of people could not easily adapt and make very minor lifestyle adjustments. I've lived long enough to see multiple waves of new technologies where each time older people bitched and moaned about how terrible they were and how they wouldn't work and this or that just wasn't possible, only to see people quickly adapt. While it's hard to believe, there are actually still numerous people who cling to incandescent light bulbs and find all manner of excuses why modern replacements are not suitable despite the fact that I've somehow got by without using incandescent lamps for general illumination for more than 20 years. People swear CFL and more recently LED bulbs are not any cheaper to run despite the fact that basic arithmetic plainly shows otherwise. It's simply a resistance to change and an emotional belief that anything new or "green" is some kind of liberal commie conspiracy or something.

Now as much as I love my older cars, it's just a simple fact that humans are going to have to adjust and adapt at some point because the current model of extracting oil from the earth and burning it to drive around in hundreds of millions of individual cars is not sustainable. Sooner or later oil will be scarce enough that we will have to find other options, whether that is alternative energy sources or much greater reliance on mass transit. We're on track to have 10 Billion people soon and more and more of those people are wanting modern conveniences.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: vk6zgo on January 05, 2018, 10:04:36 pm
There are a lot of other things beside the fuel costs that mitigate against this, such as the first cost of a diesel or other IC generator,plus ancillary bits.
A generator that can handle most household uses 24/7 will be a fairly specialised device, hence will be expensive.
Fuel tanks need to meet Govt specifications, so will also be costly.
Add to that pollution laws, & the fact that Local Government Authorities would be very unlikely to permit such an installation, in the first place.

I don't buy that for a second. If it were economical to generate power that way then everyone would have one, they would be mass produced in huge quantities and costs would drop. As it is you can get generators really cheap these days, most of my neighbors have them and I hate the cheap ones, power goes out and within 10 minutes I can't hear myself think over the din. The nice quiet inverter generators are much better but even so it's easy to work out the cost per kWh and it's not even close to competitive with what I get from the utility. Just for fun let's run some simple numbers here based on the Honda EU2000i I occasionally borrow from a friend. This is a high end inverter generator about as efficient as they come.

Fuel capacity is 0.95 US gallons of gas (petrol) and that is rated to run 3.4 hours at rated load of 2kW so 6.8 kWh per tank or 7.2 kWh per gallon.

Gasoline prices fluctuate frequently but currently in my area regular is about $2.91/gallon, so that means electricity generated by burning gasoline is about $0.40/kWh, ignoring the additional cost of collecting and transporting the fuel to my home. Electricity from the utility costs me a bit less than $0.09 per kWh so less than 1/4th the cost of generating it myself.

I think it's reasonable to assume that a really efficient diesel generator could perhaps double the fuel economy, resulting in a modest savings even factoring in the higher cost per gallon of diesel but still substantially more expensive than utility power.
My point was that it wasn't a reasonable comparison.
Your little Honda generator, or any other economically priced generator would not work 24/7 to replace the convenience of Mains power.
Something which really did the job is going to inevitably be larger & more of an industrial unit.
Nobody is going to make a special one just for those few nutters who want to supply their own power.
 Ironically, someone living in a remote area would probably find such a setup useful to charge their electric car!

I.C. cars already exist in their thousands, & as long as people can find fuel, will continue in use.
Quote

Quote
It works the other way, too .
The enthusiasts for electric cars, wave away real concerns, with "you will just have to adapt", or "you can have another long distance car", or "you can hire a car", or "sleep over at your destination" & so on.
People have real financial reasons for not doing these things.

Nobody is saying that everyone is going to have to get an electric car or that it makes financial sense for everyone, or is convenient for everyone and that's fine. If everyone had them then we would have another set of problems but that doesn't mean there are not benefits to having a lot more of them than we do currently. It also doesn't mean that a lot of people could not easily adapt and make very minor lifestyle adjustments. I've lived long enough to see multiple waves of new technologies where each time older people bitched and moaned about how terrible they were and how they wouldn't work and this or that just wasn't possible, only to see people quickly adapt. While it's hard to believe, there are actually still numerous people who cling to incandescent light bulbs and find all manner of excuses why modern replacements are not suitable despite the fact that I've somehow got by without using incandescent lamps for general illumination for more than 20 years. People swear CFL and more recently LED bulbs are not any cheaper to run despite the fact that basic arithmetic plainly shows otherwise. It's simply a resistance to change and an emotional belief that anything new or "green" is some kind of liberal commie conspiracy or something.

There were a lot of technologies that didn't make it into the mainstream, & among those that did make it, some had a pretty rocky road.
CFLs were pretty useless, they do not produce the same amount of light in the spectrum which is useful to human eyes as incandescents do, their life span was nearly as poor, & the better quality ones, which were still cruddy, were quite expensive.
Tube fluorescents are much better in every way, but of course, require new wiring.

The current crop of LED bulbs are a very good replacement for incandescents------the early ones were lousy,though!
Quote

Now as much as I love my older cars, it's just a simple fact that humans are going to have to adjust and adapt at some point because the current model of extracting oil from the earth and burning it to drive around in hundreds of millions of individual cars is not sustainable. Sooner or later oil will be scarce enough that we will have to find other options, whether that is alternative energy sources or much greater reliance on mass transit. We're on track to have 10 Billion people soon and more and more of those people are wanting modern conveniences.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 06, 2018, 09:07:26 am
My point was that it wasn't a reasonable comparison.
Your little Honda generator, or any other economically priced generator would not work 24/7 to replace the convenience of Mains power.
Something which really did the job is going to inevitably be larger & more of an industrial unit.
Nobody is going to make a special one just for those few nutters who want to supply their own power.
 Ironically, someone living in a remote area would probably find such a setup useful to charge their electric car!

I.C. cars already exist in their thousands, & as long as people can find fuel, will continue in use.

The comparison was perfectly reasonable except that you skirted around the entire point, which is that looking at this specific generator which is particularly efficient at converting gasoline into electricity, the resulting electricity costs more than *four times* what it does from the for-profit utility. Convenience, longevity, maintenance, all of that is completely irrelevant if the cost is higher even before you take any of that into consideration.

You can even ignore all of that if you like and look at medium and large scale generation, there is a very good reason that power plants in developed nations don't burn gasoline, diesel or other high grade fuels to generate electricity and that is it isn't economical. If one really wanted to nitpick it could be pointed out that small generators could easily be tied into the grid to produce power when it was convenient to do so as is done by many small scale solar/wind installations but that would be ridiculous since there is no economic incentive to use expensive self generated power to offset cheap grid supplied power.

Of course people will keep driving IC cars for a long time, nobody here is saying they won't. An alternate technology becoming mainstream doesn't mean the currently dominant tech is going to go away.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 14, 2018, 04:10:24 pm
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NANDBlog on January 15, 2018, 09:20:22 pm
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 16, 2018, 04:18:52 am
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.
And still the economy is booming. Gas and energy prices in general don't really matter that much because increasing energy prices just drive inflation.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 16, 2018, 05:28:58 am
The "invisible hand" of the free market is supposed to decide,putting inefficient business and workers out of business if they can't keep up with the laws of supply and demand. Or so the advicates for that interpretation claim.

But I think the likelihood of electricity prices going sky high is much more likely than that happening to gas.  There has been SO much disinformation being spewed on this area its kind of obvious some kind of major scam is going on.

See this study.

http://www.crai.com/sites/default/files/publications/CRA_LNG_Study.pdf (http://www.crai.com/sites/default/files/publications/CRA_LNG_Study.pdf)


How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.
And still the economy is booming. Gas and energy prices in general don't really matter that much because increasing energy prices just drive inflation.
Shale gas is what I think is being over-hyped the worst. There is lots of evidence that the real reserves they have are much much smaller and more costly to extract than are being represented.  New York Times did a series on this a few years ago but they still keep repeating things that they know are not true.

http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/96242-shale-gas-bubble-combined.html (http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/96242-shale-gas-bubble-combined.html)

We could likely reduce our energy consumption in most areas, substantially, but I think its a mistake to attempt to export it now when there are so many questions..

Another one is methane release.. Shale gas may be so leaky as far as methane release that its carbon footprint is as bad as coal. A fair amount of evidence points in that direction.

A good summary is here: "A bridge to nowhere: methane emissions and the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas" (Howarth 2014)

http://www.sierraclub.org/sites/www.sierraclub.org/files/sce/connecticut-chapter/Howarth%202014.pdf (http://www.sierraclub.org/sites/www.sierraclub.org/files/sce/connecticut-chapter/Howarth%202014.pdf)

Also, every few decades there is a major volcanic eruption which darkens the suns rays to varying degrees, globally. When there is ash in the atmosphere, winds die down and rain also declines. Also the climate gets cold for some time, because the suns rays are reflected out into space. Sometimes that causes famine.

Benjamin Franklin, one of the founders of the US wrote quite a bit about this, proposing that society should prepare for such events as best as it could, in advance. because they happen and their incidence is impossible to predict.

A good argument could and should be made that natural gas should be kept in reserve for such events. Not sold off now while governments are so corrupt that they allow it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: fcb on January 16, 2018, 07:53:13 am
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.
I'd love to pay $6.5 USD/gallon here.

Currently petrol is around £1.20 per litre (1.20 x 4.546l/usgal x exchange rate ) = $7.53/gallon
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 17, 2018, 07:08:47 am
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.

Which is why it's good to have a variety of different energy sources. With a mix of gas, diesel and electric cars on the road, a drastic price increase in one fuel source has less overall impact. If the price of gasoline goes through the roof I can get a ride from one of my friends with electric cars. If the price of electricity goes up drastically they can get a ride from me.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 17, 2018, 07:24:32 am
Energy poverty
Energy poverty is lack of access to modern energy services. It refers to the situation of large numbers of people in developing countries and some people in developed countries whose well-being is negatively affected by very low consumption of energy, use of dirty or polluting fuels, and excessive time spent collecting fuel to meet basic needs.


People in Europe have low cost healthcare and education, people in the US have until the cheap energy. Now they are trying to make the cost of healthcare and education in Europe more like the cost in the US, (astronomical) and trying to make the cost of energy in the US more like that in Europe (astronomical).

This is what is called the "race to the bottom".

Which is why it's good to have a variety of different energy sources. With a mix of gas, diesel and electric cars on the road, a drastic price increase in one fuel source has less overall impact. If the price of gasoline goes through the roof I can get a ride from one of my friends with electric cars. If the price of electricity goes up drastically they can get a ride from me.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: vk6zgo on January 18, 2018, 03:25:19 pm
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.
I'd love to pay $6.5 USD/gallon here.

Currently petrol is around £1.20 per litre (1.20 x 4.546l/usgal x exchange rate ) = $7.53/gallon

You are using the wrong conversion.
The USA uses "pretend gallons" which are smaller than full blooded "Imperial" gallons.

For example, the classic "44 gallon drum " familiar to Brits & older Aussies is a "55 gallon drum " in the US.

We call 'em "200 litre drums" nowadays in Oz!
 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on January 19, 2018, 01:57:47 am
Think the main point with most such developments is that letting market forces decide is almost always better than distorting the market with taxes, subsidies, etc. If the battery car can fulfil a role then it will sell.

We've seen how boiler scrappage schemes spawned a massive scam market in the UK, with phones jumping off the hook day in day out with illegal recorded message telesales scams.  Whatever the original intent, crooks are very quick to latch on to these schemes and use them to fleece gullible or vulnerable people. Most of the scammers were of course cowboy outfits who would probably have done an unsafe gas installation anyway.   :--

Never forget the Law of Unintended Consequences.

There is also the risk of prematurely promoting a new technology, only to have a better version come along shortly afterwards. That really does no-one any good, least of all the planet as it creates not one but two monster junkpiles of perfectly serviceable goods.  :palm:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 19, 2018, 12:03:21 pm
They have been doing that same pump and dump thing with natural gas exploration companies.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/96242/shale-gas-bubble-combined.pdf

But the resource is basically running out.

Did the price of electricity increase in Australia when Australia started to export natural gas?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 20, 2018, 07:45:37 am
Think the main point with most such developments is that letting market forces decide is almost always better than distorting the market with taxes, subsidies, etc. If the battery car can fulfil a role then it will sell.

We've seen how boiler scrappage schemes spawned a massive scam market in the UK, with phones jumping off the hook day in day out with illegal recorded message telesales scams.  Whatever the original intent, crooks are very quick to latch on to these schemes and use them to fleece gullible or vulnerable people. Most of the scammers were of course cowboy outfits who would probably have done an unsafe gas installation anyway.
I agree that law makers are oblivious to the holes in the laws they are making but as long as they patch them fast enough not much is lost. Unfortunately you can't leave everything to the mechanics of the free market. The mechanics of the free market don't care about the environment, how many people get killed or long term adverse effects. This is why it is necessary to put regulations and steering mechanisms in place. This means to subsidise new/improved technologies and put heavier taxes on unwanted technologies.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 20, 2018, 08:25:51 am
The problem with relying on the free market entirely is that the market is made up of people, and a lot of people are either not particularly intelligent or are oblivious to specific concepts. One doesn't have to look far to see for example large numbers of people who utterly fail at understanding the concept of total cost of ownership. They will buy stuff with a credit card and only comprehend what it adds to the monthly payment, they are totally oblivious to the amount they are actually paying for the item spread out over time once interest is factored in.

To use the previously mentioned boiler example, pulling some numbers out of my backside strictly for the sake of example, vast numbers of people would buy a boiler for $400 that cost them $600 a year in fuel to run rather than spend $800 on a more efficient boiler that consumed half as much fuel. Anyone who understands basic arithmetic can easily calculate that the more expensive unit in this example is actually cheaper but you might be surprised at the number of people for whom this is a totally foreign concept. For whatever reason they cannot make the connection between efficiency and their monthly utility bill and money in the bank. Again for anyone feeling really pedantic those numbers are made up simply to serve as an example.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on January 20, 2018, 09:01:28 pm
".vast numbers of people would buy a boiler for $400 that cost them $600 a year in fuel to run rather than spend $800 on a more efficient boiler that consumed half as much fuel."

The reverse is more the case. People are being persuaded to scrap conventional boilers and replace them with condensing types on the grounds that this will save the planet. Or, something. The truth is that the energy saving is small, while the waste produced by all this scrappage is large. Of course, the real motive is that the installers profit from it. Legislation also forbids the scrapped boilers from being redeployed, ensuring a monster scrap heap.

I think we have to beware of the same syndrome arising with  battery cars. The scrappage of huge numbers of conventional cars will mainly benefit the auto makers, and we then have to consider whether these firms are directly or indirectly influencing the politics for their own gain. They may for example be funding the Green Party to promote their own interests. (Exactly what they accuse Big Oil of doing, in fact.)

As with wind turbines, the cost advantage of the battery car goes away if the subsidy is removed. In this case the subsidy is threefold; handouts to buyers in the form of scrappage schemes, low or zero road tax, and no fuel tax. My guess is that if electrics became the norm, governments would have to claw back all that lost revenue. Exactly how they would do that remains to be seen, but it might involve a per-mile usage charge for example. Or a much higher road tax than for IC engines. 

The bottom line is that Joe or Jane Public pays all of these e-car subsidies, and because a large part of that subsidy is electricity, that is true whether Joe or Jane even owns a car or not. There really could not be anything less fair. It ends up with the person who cycles to work and takes a bus into town, paying for the neighbour's e-car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 21, 2018, 11:27:06 am
What makes people think that the personal automobile in almost any form will remain popular, or even legal, say 100 yrs from now?

People shouldn't extrapolate today's economic conditions into the future where they may not even remotely apply.

I think the future world depicted in "The Matrix" where people spend their entire lives plugged into a net of machinery that keeps them alive via a protein goo, permanently logged into a simulation of 1990s Earth, is around as likely, or unlikely.

Suppose the next 1859-like ("Carrington class") solar storm occurs causing loss of spent fuel cooling capacity, "loss of the ultimate heatsink" in dozens, perhaps hundreds of nuclear power plants around the globe, all at the same time, and meltdowns a few hours to days later, in some significant proportion of them..

That could render much of the planet uninhabitable.

What would be done then?
 

I hope we don't end up like this!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybSzoLCCX-Y (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybSzoLCCX-Y)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 21, 2018, 12:10:54 pm
What I am describing would be exactly that, a huge ripoff of the taxpayers based on ISDS.

http://energypost.eu/pursuit-free-energy-trade-trans-atlantic-trade-investment-partnership-ttip-endangering-action-climate-change/ (http://energypost.eu/pursuit-free-energy-trade-trans-atlantic-trade-investment-partnership-ttip-endangering-action-climate-change/)

They are basically setting up the US paxpayer to have to bail out these companies by setting up an intolerable situation the country would have to may huge sums to get out of.


Similar to the Yukos case, which may have been strictly to establish this precedent so that some huge aware could be taken against the US without it looking too suspicious. Read up on ISDS. And the "US-Gambling" case between Antigua and the US.  Over the supply of online gambling serices.

They will likely soon be doing that on health care too. (except via a state to state mechanism embedded in GATS, - but it works much like ISDS)

This is being done to trap the US in a system it could not afford since the 1980s. It would never do for the US to get public healthcare just as the US is forcing other countries to give up theirs. This is why so many US political candidates lied about it. Promising voters the moon when they really get rocks.


This situation is illustrative. Its the investors that matter now, not countries. They bought them fair and square.

http://gala.gre.ac.uk/2744/1/PSIRU_Report_9828_-_2010-02-H-tradelaw.pdf (http://gala.gre.ac.uk/2744/1/PSIRU_Report_9828_-_2010-02-H-tradelaw.pdf)

Knowing perfectly well that American patients arent going to want to be shipped overseas for health care no matter how poor they are or cant afford it if they stay.

Think the main point with most such developments is that letting market forces decide is almost always better than distorting the market with taxes, subsidies, etc. If the battery car can fulfil a role then it will sell.

We've seen how boiler scrappage schemes spawned a massive scam market in the UK, with phones jumping off the hook day in day out with illegal recorded message telesales scams.  Whatever the original intent, crooks are very quick to latch on to these schemes and use them to fleece gullible or vulnerable people. Most of the scammers were of course cowboy outfits who would probably have done an unsafe gas installation anyway.   :--

Never forget the Law of Unintended Consequences.

There is also the risk of prematurely promoting a new technology, only to have a better version come along shortly afterwards. That really does no-one any good, least of all the planet as it creates not one but two monster junkpiles of perfectly serviceable goods.  :palm:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 21, 2018, 01:13:05 pm
".vast numbers of people would buy a boiler for $400 that cost them $600 a year in fuel to run rather than spend $800 on a more efficient boiler that consumed half as much fuel."

The reverse is more the case. People are being persuaded to scrap conventional boilers and replace them with condensing types on the grounds that this will save the planet. Or, something. The truth is that the energy saving is small, while the waste produced by all this scrappage is large. Of course, the real motive is that the installers profit from it. Legislation also forbids the scrapped boilers from being redeployed, ensuring a monster scrap heap.

I think we have to beware of the same syndrome arising with  battery cars. The scrappage of huge numbers of conventional cars will mainly benefit the auto makers, and we then have to consider whether these firms are directly or indirectly influencing the politics for their own gain. They may for example be funding the Green Party to promote their own interests. (Exactly what they accuse Big Oil of doing, in fact.)


It depends. About 10 years ago I replaced my working but 30 year old forced air furnace which was 80% efficient with a 93% efficient condensing furnace. The original still worked but it was reaching the point where the second set of heat exchangers were getting close to the age where the original set failed. At the same time I dropped the size down from 100k BTH/hr to 80k since the original was oversized, popular because people like to heat up the house quickly and gas was cheap in the 70s. That replacement make a noticeable decrease in my gas bill and has paid for itself quite a while ago now. If you have a tired old boiler that is nearing end of life anyway then it doesn't bother me to create an incentive to replace it with a cleaner more efficient model. Now I didn't get any kind of subsidy because I installed it myself, I could have got a rebate from the utility but to do that I would have had to pay an installer and that would have cost me a lot more than the rebate covers.

Now I would not scrap perfectly good boiler that was not particularly old, and I think laws barring installing used boilers are ridiculous but that doesn't mean it's always bad to offer some incentives or rebates. Here they are more often offered not by the government but by the (for-profit) utility companies because it saves them having to spend big money upgrading infrastructure. If you want to be irritated, look up the criminally wasteful "Cash for clunkers" program we had here, a thinly veiled bailout for the auto industry, it was claimed to be getting old dirty cars off the street but in fact to qualify they had to be licensed and drivable, and newer than a certain age, conveniently covering the most popular used cars and SUVs. On top of that you could trade in a car for the rebate and get a truck or SUV that resulted in no savings. All of these running cars that were traded in were mandated to have the engines destroyed before they were sent out to scrapyards. It was no benefit to the people who had the true clunkers because they couldn't afford to replace theirs with a brand new car even with the rebate. All it did was destroy a lot of good cars that could have had many years of use on them, while spending my tax dollars to subsidize middle and upper middle class people buying new cars.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on January 21, 2018, 10:32:13 pm
A: What makes people think that the personal automobile in almost any form will remain popular, or even legal, say 100 yrs from now?

B: People shouldn't extrapolate today's economic conditions into the future where they may not even remotely apply.

C: Suppose the next 1859-like ("Carrington class") solar storm occurs causing loss of spent fuel cooling capacity, "loss of the ultimate heatsink" in dozens, perhaps hundreds of nuclear power plants around the globe, all at the same time, and meltdowns a few hours to days later, in some significant proportion of them..

A: Try making any journey by public transport that is not either To or From a city center, and you will see why it has to be.  To get 60 miles you may have to travel 100 to the nearest city, passing your destination on the way, and then travel 40 back again in the direction you came.  |O

B: Too true, and applies in spades to the mass deployment of wind turbines and the like. Fusion will almost certainly be perfected before '100% renewables' is reached n 2050 or wheneveri. At which point they become scrap. Scrap with a fair proportion of non-recyclable content, too.

C: That is probably an exaggeration, but it IS a valid reason why we should build no more reactors with pressurised water cooling or zirconium fuel cladding.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 22, 2018, 12:29:22 am
A: What makes people think that the personal automobile in almost any form will remain popular, or even legal, say 100 yrs from now?

B: People shouldn't extrapolate today's economic conditions into the future where they may not even remotely apply.

C: Suppose the next 1859-like ("Carrington class") solar storm occurs causing loss of spent fuel cooling capacity, "loss of the ultimate heatsink" in dozens, perhaps hundreds of nuclear power plants around the globe, all at the same time, and meltdowns a few hours to days later, in some significant proportion of them..

A: Try making any journey by public transport that is not either To or From a city center, and you will see why it has to be.  To get 60 miles you may have to travel 100 to the nearest city, passing your destination on the way, and then travel 40 back again in the direction you came.  |O

B: Too true, and applies in spades to the mass deployment of wind turbines and the like. Fusion will almost certainly be perfected before '100% renewables' is reached n 2050 or wheneveri. At which point they become scrap. Scrap with a fair proportion of non-recyclable content, too.

C: That is probably an exaggeration, but it IS a valid reason why we should build no more reactors with pressurised water cooling or zirconium fuel cladding.

People in theory will have a lot more time after automation has progressed but it will be very unequally distributed. Poor people won't have more time, working, as many will be, several part time jobs, perhaps traveling huge distances between them, (although this will be reduced because of globalization of services, instead those jobs will likely be bid out to foreign firms) and in the developed countries far more people will be poor than today. They will likely be struggling to maintain a capacity to drive, and as you pointed out, its unlikely that the government policy will make it any easier for them, concerned as it will be by falling rates of purchasing of new automobiles.

What they will do is create huge taxes on older cars, or continually require new capabilities in cars allowed on the roads which only the newer cars have.

Poor people will also be pushed out farther and farther from urban areas and affluent exurbs blessed with better than average public transportation, and lack of credit may make it difficult for them to avail themselves of it where it does exist.  Cashless Cities will exclude them.

Its hard to say what will happen, but the path we are on now leads to a much less positive place than the place many people still think we are going.

 If the essence of capitalism is making profits at any cost I think its basically " written off" its books the necessity of giving anything back to larger and larger segments of society - as its cost of doing business. Dumping a number of important goals by the wayside quietly. You can tell when they have been dumped by the shrill increase in talking about them by politicians, a form of over-compensating.

Younger generations may find it quite difficult to ever attain or maintain parents or grandparents level of wealth under "the new economy".  They may never really be able to strike out on their own. The wealth they would have needed to marry, purchase homes of their own, have children, etc, would have had to come from wages undiluted by predatory globalization.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: splin on January 22, 2018, 06:53:57 am

What they will do is create huge taxes on older cars, or continually require new capabilities in cars allowed on the roads which only the newer cars have.

Perhaps, but for now, and hopefully the forseable future, governments are elected and much as they might like to impose their will "for the long term good of the nation" (or for the benefit of their cronies and / or post government revolving door employment), there is always a limit to what the voters will tolerate. Especially if a large part of the electorate is disaffected by a reversing economy.

Taking away (relatively) cheap but dirty motoring from the masses and restricting cleaner, but not pollution free, electric motoring to the wealthier may seem attractive, or at least an acceptable option to descision makers in cities like London well served by public transport, but it may not be so well received out in the sticks and poorer towns and cities. Think Brexit...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 22, 2018, 07:25:18 am
What they will do is create huge taxes on older cars, or continually require new capabilities in cars allowed on the roads which only the newer cars have.
Fortunately the old cars are not scrapped but exported to countries with less strict laws. And sometimes cars don't have to be exported far!
A couple of years ago Germany banned old diesels so many Germans where forced to get rid of them. In the Netherlands we had low tax tariffs for old (collectible) cars. This resulted in many old Mercedes diesel cars being imported into the Netherlands and the owners didn't had to so much ownership taxes. Ofcourse this was a foolish move by the buyers because the hole got plugged quickly. The cars are probably still driving around somewhere in Africa.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Galenbo on January 22, 2018, 07:34:08 am
Just build a couple of hundreds of Nuclear plants, electricity price will drop and driving electrical will be cheaper than the alternative.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 22, 2018, 07:35:13 am
It has nothing to do with pollution and everything to do with regulatory capture and enabling hooks for multiple dubious goals such as planned obsolescence and increased access to marketable data and surveillance. The newer a car is the more potential it has as a cash cow to the manufacturer and the various "partners" it may have signed on to. The buyer is buying a hardware platform that to do most of what they want they will have to keep paying. The kind of car that lasted for twenty years with only minimal problems is anathema to modern marketers.

Also, there is surveillance and data mining.  Lots and lots of money in that!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrZ4C9kkZvA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrZ4C9kkZvA)

Also, consider the value of keeping the roads clear of traffic Electric cars and privatization of highways is a hook to restrict freedom to travel or at least travel without interruption to just the better heeled.

It has disruptive potential similar to "Cashless cities"  - in its exclusionary effect.

(in case you hadn't noticed, neoliberalism- like any self respecting doomsday cult (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_cult), almost worships disruption)

Also, how do you decide who is profitable, and who isn't?

If you don't know, who gets the shrinking number of jobs when you're in charge and they are rapidly going away. The "wrong people".

Insurance is a biggie. So are the areas you frequent. Maybe you live near a toxic business thats causing cancer for its neighbors. You dont know that now, nobody does, but in 20 years, the data will stand out like a red thumb. Would everybody who spent a significant amount of time near it - as long as 20 years earlier, become "uninsurables"?

The simple answer is, if the math justified it, and maybe a little more.

They dont want to turn away customers unless there is an actual risk. Some toxic exposures can also be transgenerational, or "epigenetic".  To figure out who is at risk, they need a granularity of information that was never available before. Previously it was too expensive to store all that information also. for example, RTK location data from a cell phone may contain spatial resolution of 2 cm or less and be sampled as much as 20 times a second.  of course, the motion of a car cannot tell potential customers much about its drivers heartbeat. But the amount the car moves downward when he or she gets in can be compared to other similar data to give a very accurate picture of their weight at a given moment in time.

Where you go, how fast you drive. Whose cars park near yours. They can use all that data to build up a profile of the kind of returns they might get of marketing efforts to you.

They wouldn't go to all this effort if the data was not valuable to a multiplicity of buyers.

How do you think they decide who is a good health insurance risk and who isnt, (necessitating they deny coverage, or charge much more for it)  Location has a lot to do with it. Also, by who the owner spends time with, where.

Also, how much money is likely to be spent by person A vs person B. (how much profit is to be made on them)


What they will do is create huge taxes on older cars, or continually require new capabilities in cars allowed on the roads which only the newer cars have.

Perhaps, but for now, and hopefully the forseable future, governments are elected and much as they might like to impose their will "for the long term good of the nation" (or for the benefit of their cronies and / or post government revolving door employment), there is always a limit to what the voters will tolerate. Especially if a large part of the electorate is disaffected by a reversing economy.

Yes, if you replace "corporations" for nations. Corporations are the new people.

Taking away (relatively) cheap but dirty motoring from the masses and restricting cleaner, but not pollution free, electric motoring to the wealthier may seem attractive, or at least an acceptable option to descision makers in cities like London well served by public transport, but it may not be so well received out in the sticks and poorer towns and cities. Think Brexit...

Not knowing about the thing I'm trying to tell you about already caused both Brexit's win, and the 2008 financial crisis, and I can prove that easily in both cases. Its easy to see for yourself, want to know how? in the first instance, look for pictures of a red London bus rented by the UK's "UKIP" party and driven around london in the days before the leave vote, and report back what was printed on it.

The second can be shown by looking on the last page of the last attachment to the last "Specific Commitments" document (Supplement 3) or SC90 Supplement 3 filed in Geneva at the WTO by the US on February 26, 1998 the line about "Glass-Steagall Act reform"

The fact that we still don't know this otherwise huge piece of real news tells us that that information vacuum will be exploited again before this is over, you can bet on it.

The point I am trying to make is that we're all being led into a state of delusion as to our current situation.

We would like to think we have democracy. But do we?

We had it in the past but right now, its at best in the very gravest of danger.

The very idea of a livable, inclusive society and planet, is in grave mortal danger.  Because that dream, that good society we all see as desirable is not the one that corporations want, because its one where their ability to exploit the maximal profits out of every advantage they ca possible get, unfairly - is limited - For example, corporations may not want people who have no money dead, but they dont want them. Its not personal, they just see no value in a person who is not making them money, and the space they occupy if it might be occupied alternatively by somebody who was, they see as a negative.

Because that planet PEOPLE want is NOT - not even close, to the planet MNCs want. For one thing, what happens when people just dont have anything that they want? When nothing that they may be able to do for them has any value. When they no longer have any money to spend and a 50 cent piece of electrovics can do more with in ten seconds than they could in their entire life.

The worst actors - the corporations whose lobbies are bringing about these shifts, can be shown to think completely differently than sane people do.

Do sane human beings see large scale job losses as a gain? No. But, the lobbies of these multinational corporations, and the economics establishment that legitimizes them, as well as the governments that are pushing this system, have all created a alternative reality that selectively builds a value system that bears little or no relation to that held by the rest of the planet.

So, one dirty little secret behind trade agreements is that they frame job losses as 'efficiency gains'. Pretending that those millions of people will simply be freed to do other things. This would be unlikely to be true under the most favorable of economic conditions, but coming as it will during an unprecedented shift in business settings to automation - accompanied by a rapid increase in trans-border specialization, whose acknowledged primary goal is cutting costs, I think its inaccurate to call it anything resembling a gain of any kind, except for those huge corporations which will have created the optimal conditions not just for their own growth but for the creation of a mono-cuture which will likely eliminate many millions of smaller businesses, leaving a vast number of our planets citizens with nothing.

An ideal situation for polluters though, because damages are based on lost wages so unemployed people, the aged and childrens lives are worth - a portion of their lost wages- unless its both an open and shut case, and they have to be given extremely costly care, its not worth a lawyers time taking the case.

This conclusion - that its the definition of insanity to be allowing what they are doing, their stealthy bypassing of the checks and balances we have set up to keep our systems sane and healthy by creation of a global "trading" system to keep the people down and keep the currently up up,. subvert the world's brief experiment with democracy,, is very likely to end in disaster, seems like a logical one to make.

Otherwise, why are they hiding what they are doing? Why do they refuse to discuss its growing list of glaring failures.

What I am trying to tell you is we're being led into a trap that is forcing a cult like mess onto our nations stealthily replacing what people expect with its Doppelganger, or evil twin.


All of the efforts to force corporatism on the planet have a single unifying theme to them all, divide and conquer.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 22, 2018, 07:59:06 am

Electric cars=hook to restrict freedom to travel to just the better heeled.



You should lay off the drugs, or take off the tinfoil hat for a bit, you seem obsessed with strange conspiracy theories when virtually anything covered by any of those theories could be more easily accomplished without the difficulty of trying to hide the mechanism if there was actually a motive in the first place. Let's say there was actually some sort of motivation for restricting travel, you actually think trying to get everyone in electric cars is even close to the most direct way to do it? That makes no sense at all. Just who is "the man" who wants to restrict travel? Automakers? If I have a car with enough range to get me to the park & ride, bus station, train station and airport, just how exactly is my travel restricted?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 22, 2018, 08:34:16 am
James_s,

You know what a toll road is, I'm sure.

Well WELCOME TO AMERICA where rigid ideology and extreme unapologetic greed "Trumps" common sense every time.

Where the two parties compete over which can be the most obsequious to the unexpressed wish lists of multinational corporations.

Well one thing needs to be said for politicians today. they know where the money is. And isn't.

What percentage of Americans today could not come up with a few thousand dollars to cover a sudden emergency that came up?

In other words, how many of us are living "paycheck to paycheck"? 

More than a third.

We should preserve every job we can, and not trade them away like poker chips in a board (or shell) game is perhaps more appropriate..  And not make decisions that take millions of perfectly servicable cars off the road (or affordable houses and apartments away from families for that matter, by making them "too expensive to heat" and eligible for condemnation as 'blight' under eminent domain.).

A boon to real estate development, to be sure, however.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 22, 2018, 10:15:38 am
Just build a couple of hundreds of Nuclear plants, electricity price will drop and driving electrical will be cheaper than the alternative.
With the current type of nuclear power plants in use that isn't the case. The costs for dismantling and storage of contaminated materials is huge. AFAIK electricity from wind and solar is starting to get cheaper than nuclear.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on January 22, 2018, 10:22:06 am
Don't know if anyone else posted this already, but here's a report from UBS about the Chevy Bolt:

http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf (http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf)

They bought a Bolt and tore it down to independently figure out how it was put together, costs and profit opportunities. It's long (95 pages!), but I figured it was apropos this thread since it tries to answer questions like cost parity between EVs and ICE cars.

tl;dr: they expect it to reach cost parity with the VW Golf by 2025 in the US (earlier in Europe).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 22, 2018, 04:28:08 pm
My friend has a Bolt, he bought it used when it was about a year old, I forget how much he paid for it but it was pretty reasonable. I drove it once, that thing is scary fast. At highway speed it's only average but from a stop if you stomp on the "gas" it goes like stink, feels faster than anything else I've driven.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on January 22, 2018, 06:02:41 pm
My friend has a Bolt, he bought it used when it was about a year old, I forget how much he paid for it but it was pretty reasonable. I drove it once, that thing is scary fast. At highway speed it's only average but from a stop if you stomp on the "gas" it goes like stink, feels faster than anything else I've driven.

Yup, I love mine, 260 ft lb in a car that size is fun. Also it sounds like a muted version of the Tumbler from the Dark Knight trilogy ;D
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gmb42 on January 22, 2018, 11:26:54 pm
Don't know if anyone else posted this already, but here's a report from UBS about the Chevy Bolt:

http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf (http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf)

They bought a Bolt and tore it down to independently figure out how it was put together, costs and profit opportunities. It's long (95 pages!), but I figured it was apropos this thread since it tries to answer questions like cost parity between EVs and ICE cars.

tl;dr: they expect it to reach cost parity with the VW Golf by 2025 in the US (earlier in Europe).

I'd posted earlier (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1387777/#msg1387777) in the thread with a link to a report (https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/25/timeline-electric-vehicle-revolution-via-lower-battery-prices-supercharging-lower-battery-prices/) on when the crossover between the costs of ICE and EV will happen in the mainstream vehicle categories. The report reckons 2024/25, although it is from an EV leaning site.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 22, 2018, 11:49:12 pm
Electric Bikes already are very mainstream in many areas.  And for lots of light personal transportation needs they are just right.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on January 23, 2018, 07:09:54 pm
I scanned the thread, I'm sure it's come up, but being a little UK centric here...

The public purse has lost most of it's tobacco duty.  They currently don't charge duty on home energy use.

When EVs become more and more popular, I think it's like 5% at the moment, the public purse will lose the fuel duty which is about 80-90% of the price of fuel.

Will we all have to accept the Kwh rate rising rapidly as duty is applied to all domestic electricity?  Will UK electric vehicles start to be fitted with special plugs with special phase that makes them only compatible with regulated approved and taxed sockets?  Surely ebay kits will appear to convert from normal mains.  Do we then get into the TV license debacle with inspectors calling to check your car charging station?

A lot of electric charging points are currently FREE.  EV owners are unbareable in their smugness.  When electric charging points start charging 50p or £1 per KWh how will they feel then?

Worse.  If my electric goes from £0.158 per KWh to £0.80 per KWh when I don't even own an EV I will not be happy with EV owners!  Nor will the little old ladies who will freeze in winter and die before they will be able to afford that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 23, 2018, 08:10:09 pm
I scanned the thread, I'm sure it's come up, but being a little UK centric here...

The public purse has lost most of it's tobacco duty.  They currently don't charge duty on home energy use.

When EVs become more and more popular, I think it's like 5% at the moment, the public purse will lose the fuel duty which is about 80-90% of the price of fuel.

Will we all have to accept the Kwh rate rising rapidly as duty is applied to all domestic electricity?  Will UK electric vehicles start to be fitted with special plugs with special phase that makes them only compatible with regulated approved and taxed sockets?  Surely ebay kits will appear to convert from normal mains.  Do we then get into the TV license debacle with inspectors calling to check your car charging station?

A lot of electric charging points are currently FREE.  EV owners are unbareable in their smugness.  When electric charging points start charging 50p or £1 per KWh how will they feel then?

Worse.  If my electric goes from £0.158 per KWh to £0.80 per KWh when I don't even own an EV I will not be happy with EV owners!  Nor will the little old ladies who will freeze in winter and die before they will be able to afford that.
Its a common challenge around the world, owing to the challenges of trying to tax electricity predictions are that many countries will turn to simple things like annual odometer counts and scaling registration costs to the km travelled.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on January 23, 2018, 09:34:54 pm
Its a common challenge around the world, owing to the challenges of trying to tax electricity predictions are that many countries will turn to simple things like annual odometer counts and scaling registration costs to the km travelled.

That will put another dent in the EV users smug faces.  They currently don't pay road tax either!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Blocco on January 24, 2018, 03:23:45 am
I scanned the thread, I'm sure it's come up, but being a little UK centric here...

The public purse has lost most of it's tobacco duty.  They currently don't charge duty on home energy use.

When EVs become more and more popular, I think it's like 5% at the moment, the public purse will lose the fuel duty which is about 80-90% of the price of fuel.

Will we all have to accept the Kwh rate rising rapidly as duty is applied to all domestic electricity?  Will UK electric vehicles start to be fitted with special plugs with special phase that makes them only compatible with regulated approved and taxed sockets?  Surely ebay kits will appear to convert from normal mains.  Do we then get into the TV license debacle with inspectors calling to check your car charging station?

A lot of electric charging points are currently FREE.  EV owners are unbareable in their smugness.  When electric charging points start charging 50p or £1 per KWh how will they feel then?

Worse.  If my electric goes from £0.158 per KWh to £0.80 per KWh when I don't even own an EV I will not be happy with EV owners!  Nor will the little old ladies who will freeze in winter and die before they will be able to afford that.

Plenty of imaginary scenarios to get annoyed about there >:(. What I think we are most likely to see as electric cars become more popular is a rapid increase in excise duty (currently £0) for electric vehicles and ultimately, road pricing by ANPR cameras for everyone. There isn't a better time to buy a used electric car because, in the longer term, motoring is likely to become much more expensive for all road users.

Edit... Coincidentally; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42792813 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42792813)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Galenbo on January 25, 2018, 05:07:28 am
AFAIK electricity from wind and solar is starting to get cheaper than nuclear.
Yes I heard that too, after some bankruptcies and subsidized start-through, the neo-renewables are getting cheaper than (nuclear+renewable taxes)
Cheaper average, of course, especially when momentary electricity prices go to zero or even negative.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: fcb on January 25, 2018, 06:00:02 am
Its a common challenge around the world, owing to the challenges of trying to tax electricity predictions are that many countries will turn to simple things like annual odometer counts and scaling registration costs to the km travelled.

That will put another dent in the EV users smug faces.  They currently don't pay road tax either!

Road pricing.  And probably toll roads, the time-over-distance cameras that are springing up everywhere will see to that.

They'll never succeed in taxing the energy to charge an EV, it's untraceable (charging at work will become a benefit-in-kind though).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 25, 2018, 09:04:05 am
I bet that when you add in the cost of disposing of the waste and especially the risk of possible meltdowns if you don't keep it properly supplied with cooling water, nuclear fission power ends up being the most expensive power source of them all.

AFAIK electricity from wind and solar is starting to get cheaper than nuclear.
Yes I heard that too, after some bankruptcies and subsidized start-through, the neo-renewables are getting cheaper than (nuclear+renewable taxes)
Cheaper average, of course, especially when momentary electricity prices go to zero or even negative.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on January 25, 2018, 07:09:43 pm
I bet that when you add in the cost of disposing of the waste and especially the risk of possible meltdowns if you don't keep it properly supplied with cooling water, nuclear fission power ends up being the most expensive power source of them all.

With current Rickover reactor design yes.  We have the cold war and the US Navy to thank for the mess we are in.  There are much less wasteful, much less cooling sensitive and fail safe reactor designs which have been tested in small scale, but Rickover reactors produce weapons grade plutonium as a waste product.  You do the maths.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on January 26, 2018, 09:16:34 am
Nuclear is obsolete. From the cost point of view.
And we will have to clean this mess, and our children will have to suffer from it. ('we' meaning all the people from the concerned nations)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 26, 2018, 09:19:51 am
Nuclear is going to be around for a long time to come, the energy demands of the world just keep rapidly increasing. I'd like to see some of the older more dangerous and less efficient plants replaced with more modern designs but the anti-nuke lobby has been doing a fine job of keeping the old ones running by blocking the construction of newer and safer plants.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 26, 2018, 09:27:01 am
If a country goes into economic collapse, all of their assets such as exportable fuels, water, money saved on behalf of social security, etc, can be applied towards their debt.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on January 26, 2018, 11:52:16 am
That could render much of the planet uninhabitable.

What would be done then?
It´s in the sense of the words already... if things get "out of control" in the future for someone who is responsible, things will be "out of control" by definition. I don´t see where that possibility inhibits anyone today from doing something completely different that is within anyones control.

Regarding nuclear power: for me it is questionable if a nuclear power plant from green meadow -> built -> operated -> decommissioned -> green meadow will be cost neutral or positive. There is no lobby needed, except for small details like leaving a radioactive industrial ruin behind after defaulting on cost.... not poisioning people (related or unrelated to that) or so. If a calculation that takes these things into account does not work, it will not be built, if it would... it would be built (somewhere or the contracts would not be made in an election year).

Ok, admittedly there are things like greenwashing and people that are suspicous probably want that suspicion to be compensated financially, so yes, there is some cost attached to what the public opinion is, but aside from that there should be a fixed cost to do this in a safe and legal way. It is imho too simple to blame the public opinion if the calculation did not work out in the first place.

OTOH big projects this scale always have skyrocketing costs and build times... which always makes me wonder how safe that piece was in the planning stage and can be in operation if the plan needed to be changed e.g. 100 times - under the premise of "being a proven and safe design".


Ok, back to topic:
The personal car is a decentral mode of transportation, relatively diverse, maintainable by people with mediocre mechanical skills and a small set of tools. Nothing of that changes when talking electric cars. They have brakes and other wear parts that do need maintenance too.

Imho such systems are more resilient than centralized systems as they have different weaknesses. It´s like comparing bus drivers (of well maintained busses) going on strike (you are screwed and its their fault) vs. not maintaining your car (you are screwed and its your fault :-) ).

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 27, 2018, 07:35:46 am
Imho such systems are more resilient than centralized systems as they have different weaknesses. It´s like comparing bus drivers (of well maintained busses) going on strike (you are screwed and its their fault) vs. not maintaining your car (you are screwed and its your fault :-) ).
Yes. Public transport is highly unreliable as I noticed last week and yesterday. It takes a bit of wind or a person jumping in front of a train to cause utter chaos.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on January 27, 2018, 10:09:47 am
Imho such systems are more resilient than centralized systems as they have different weaknesses. It´s like comparing bus drivers (of well maintained busses) going on strike (you are screwed and its their fault) vs. not maintaining your car (you are screwed and its your fault :-) ).
Yes. Public transport is highly unreliable as I noticed last week and yesterday. It takes a bit of wind or a person jumping in front of a train to cause utter chaos.
Not everyone's public transport is highly unreliable. That's kind of a national choice. Some people have public transport that fails them less often than major road incidents cause car driver's journeys to fail.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 27, 2018, 11:57:52 am
When I worked downtown for a while I took the bus almost every day, it was more reliable at getting me to work on time than my car as traffic made the car trip take anywhere from 25 minutes to nearly 2 hours, the bus was pretty consistently about an hour.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on January 27, 2018, 09:15:08 pm
Nothing of that changes when talking electric cars. They have brakes and other wear parts that do need maintenance too.

They do a lot of braking by running the motors in reverse as generators, that doesn't wear brake pads out at all.

Nuclear is going to be around for a long time to come, the energy demands of the world just keep rapidly increasing. I'd like to see some of the older more dangerous and less efficient plants replaced with more modern designs

Yep. Those old ones were designed for making bombs. Electricity generation was just how they sold it to the public.

If (eg.) the USA spend the price of a couple of F35s on energy research instead they could solve most of the world's energy problems.

but the anti-nuke lobby has been doing a fine job of keeping the old ones running by blocking the construction of newer and safer plants.

Yep. That and the fact that electricity has been privatized throughout most of the world. Private funding makes power plants hundreds of times more expensive to build.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants#Capital_costs
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on January 29, 2018, 10:01:46 am
Yep. That and the fact that electricity has been privatized throughout most of the world. Private funding makes power plants hundreds of times more expensive to build.
Not really. Private funding does not make them more expensive, it only digs up the massive hidden costs that are insurance, decomissionning, waste treatment, waste storage, as well as accident cleanup costs.
These are usually simply swept under the carpet when run publicly.
Private investing doesn't work like that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on February 03, 2018, 10:22:16 am
Countries are being forced to privatize everything irreversibly (including utilities, roads, healthcare, higher education, etc.) by undemocratic trade in services agreements.

And once they privatize something it becomes impossibly expensive to ever get it back. People cant just vote to get back public services.

Thats the Catch 22 as they say.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on February 03, 2018, 10:26:42 am
Depending on who bids on it the costs could go down a lot - for example if a foreign firm gets the lowest bid and wins the contract.

being foreign they can import their workforce (as long as they are temps) and they can end up paying them almost nothing.

This is a huge loophole in labor laws created by these "agreements" and it shows why they are being so dishonest about them. Greed is a powerful motivator for dishonesty.

They claim these changes are meant to help the least developed countries but thats totally bullshit.

Yep. That and the fact that electricity has been privatized throughout most of the world. Private funding makes power plants hundreds of times more expensive to build.
Not really. Private funding does not make them more expensive, it only digs up the massive hidden costs that are insurance, decomissionning, waste treatment, waste storage, as well as accident cleanup costs.
These are usually simply swept under the carpet when run publicly.
Private investing doesn't work like that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: rstofer on March 30, 2018, 09:03:28 am
My friend has a Bolt, he bought it used when it was about a year old, I forget how much he paid for it but it was pretty reasonable. I drove it once, that thing is scary fast. At highway speed it's only average but from a stop if you stomp on the "gas" it goes like stink, feels faster than anything else I've driven.

I have a 2017 Bolt and, yes, it's quick.  The thing is, the 2014 Chevy Spark EV I had before was even quicker - a LOT quicker.  So much quicker that Chevy had to tone things down and the Bolt is the result.  The Spark EV has been out of production for a while

Mid range passing is awesome.

The Bolt was introduced in the 2017 model year and I think we had the 2d one in our town.

200 HP of electric motor is a lot of fun!

And, no, I'm not trying to save the planet!  I'm a retired EE and have an interest in things electric.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanB on March 30, 2018, 09:16:49 am
I have a 2017 Bolt and, yes, it's quick.  The thing is, the 2014 Chevy Spark EV I had before was even quicker - a LOT quicker.  So much quicker that Chevy had to tone things down and the Bolt is the result.  The Spark EV has been out of production for a while

I've been in a Spark and yes, it was ridiculously quick to accelerate from low speeds.

In contrast I drove a Nissan Leaf this week. That car is tuned for "relaxation mode". It doesn't want you to race, it wants you to chill and watch the scenery.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on April 01, 2018, 11:38:41 pm
Here, the government has a department set up specifically to push 'low emission vehicles (https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/office-for-low-emission-vehicles)' -and it becomes apparent that the 'emissions' this refers to is CO2, not toxins.  Battery cars and charge points figure heavily.

This worries me, because it's another example of force-feeding a nascent technology to the public. We've seen this all too often before, where the force-fed technology, after huge public spending, gets superseded by better technology. The result is typically a monster scrap pile. CFL lightbulbs are a case in point.  :palm:

The tech that would kill the battery car stone dead, is a fuel cell which runs on something more easily stored than hydrogen or methane. Which may not be all that far away. The Bloom Box came as something of a surprise, and many people thought it was a scam to start with. No, it's actually a great product.  :-+

The other point that seems to have escaped them, is that the idea of supplying battery cars from renewable energy is a pipedream. After more than 20 years of deploying renewables they cannot even supply our electricity demands, let alone transport energy requirements too. So, the battery cars would simply transfer the point at which the CO2 is released to a power station, and would solve nothing. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 01, 2018, 11:57:46 pm
The other point that seems to have escaped them, is that the idea of supplying battery cars from renewable energy is a pipedream. After more than 20 years of deploying renewables they cannot even supply our electricity demands, let alone transport energy requirements too. So, the battery cars would simply transfer the point at which the CO2 is released to a power station, and would solve nothing.

Yep.

https://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/wells-to-wheels-electric-car-efficiency/

I haven't read it in a whlie, but I think he got to 6% more efficient.  However I believe there are few things unconsidered, such as how much power is lost in electrical transmission for the power plant to the charge station etc.  and how much is lost charging the battery itself.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 02, 2018, 12:29:08 am
The other point that seems to have escaped them, is that the idea of supplying battery cars from renewable energy is a pipedream.

The combination of solar PV on my roof and Bolt EV I drive ~65 mi each day still gives me a net negative energy usage, especially in the summer. In the winter I expect things to further improve after I replace the resistance heaters we have in our home with heat pumps.


https://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/wells-to-wheels-electric-car-efficiency/ (https://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/wells-to-wheels-electric-car-efficiency/)

I haven't read it in a whlie, but I think he got to 6% more efficient.  However I believe there are few things unconsidered, such as how much power is lost in electrical transmission for the power plant to the charge station etc.  and how much is lost charging the battery itself.

He got 29% for a BEV and 14% for an ICE car. He took into account a 7% grid loss and a 20% loss in the battery charging process. His example BEV is a Tesla, I seem to get somewhat lower losses (about 16%) with my Bolt EV. The car tracks how much energy was used by the traction motor, and my charger tracks how much energy was used during a charge cycle. The only time there's a big discrepancy is when outside temps fall below freezing, and the car goes into battery conditioning mode where it runs a heater to keep the battery at optimum temperature.

Of course, this doesn't take into account the almost zero maintenance costs of a BEV.

(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=408482;image)

Edit: inlining image
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 02, 2018, 12:52:37 am
And how many charge cycles will the battery do before it becomes sub-par and needs replacing?

I know Lithium battery specs show a vast spectrum of figures from losing 15% capacity in 100 cycles to 1000 cycles depending on use and DOD/C etc.

In a practical sense and how a lot of people might use an EV, an overnight charge, every night sounds reasonable.  So exactly the same way you might use a cell/mobile phone.  Running between 50% charge and 100% charge daily.  We all know that the battery in a cell phone isn't at it's best after 1 year, noticably lower in capacity after 2 years and fairly useless after 3 years cutting out mid day.  I would expect the figures for EVs to be much better given how expensive they are and how much battery management goes into the thing, but even if they double that, you are talking about the battery losing a sizable portion of it's range in 5-10 years and needing replaced.  By that time it will be financially far more efficient to dump the car in the scrap yard and buy a new one than to replace the battery, which will probably cost a sizable portion of a whole new car!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 02, 2018, 01:07:28 am
And how many charge cycles will the battery do before it becomes sub-par and needs replacing?

I know Lithium battery specs show a vast spectrum of figures from losing 15% capacity in 100 cycles to 1000 cycles depending on use and DOD/C etc.

In a practical sense and how a lot of people might use an EV, an overnight charge, every night sounds reasonable.  So exactly the same way you might use a cell/mobile phone.  Running between 50% charge and 100% charge daily.  We all know that the battery in a cell phone isn't at it's best after 1 year, noticably lower in capacity after 2 years and fairly useless after 3 years cutting out mid day.  I would expect the figures for EVs to be much better given how expensive they are and how much battery management goes into the thing, but even if they double that, you are talking about the battery losing a sizable portion of it's range in 5-10 years and needing replaced.  By that time it will be financially far more efficient to dump the car in the scrap yard and buy a new one than to replace the battery, which will probably cost a sizable portion of a whole new car!
Its only quite recently that the pool of fairly old electric cars, needing out of warranty battery work, has become significant. Nissan are now setting up a operation offering refurbished Leaf battery packs for sale. Time will tell if this turns out to be a cost effective way to keep older Leafs viable.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 02, 2018, 01:23:06 am
And how many charge cycles will the battery do before it becomes sub-par and needs replacing?

I don't have a good answer, but I can make an educated guess. Tesla and Volt (with a V) batteries aren't failing in large numbers, these cars have been around for some time now. Leaf batteries have some reported failures (unacceptable loss of capacity). The big difference between the two is the Leaf does not have active thermal management for the battery pack. With some care in the charge management (and barring manufacturing defects), Lithium batteries should last a while. The Gen II Volts and all Bolt EVs use a modified LiMnCo chemistry (higher Mn proportional to Co) to prioritize battery life. Teslas, as far as I know, use standard LiMnCo chemistry, and still don't have early failures.

Cellphones are about the worst case for Lithium batteries, since they pack a lot of heat-generating electronics right up against the cells. I'd invite the curious to look up the WeberAuto Youtube channel's teardown of a Bolt EV battery pack to see how LG engineers the thermal management.

Per the evaluations done by UBS, the battery costs $12,500, which is about 1/4-1/3 the value of the car (depending on pre- or post-rebate cost). GreenCarReports indicates that including labor, it's closer to $15,700 (1/3 to 1/2). They also note that in 7 years, not a single Volt has required a battery replacement for capacity degradation.

Finally, the Bolt EV has an 8 year battery warranty. That should be plenty to take care of early failures.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 02, 2018, 01:27:48 am
Tesla and Volt (with a V) batteries aren't failing in large numbers, these cars have been around for some time now.
I know this is anecdotal, but I only know 2 people with a Volt, and both needed their battery refurbished under warranty. They had considerable downtime, as the pack was removed from their car and sent to another part of the country for the rebuild. GM refused to tell them the extent of the rework that was needed.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 02, 2018, 01:43:15 am
I see the warranties.  I don't see the "Level of capacity loss required" to activate a warranty claim.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 02, 2018, 04:09:03 am
I see the warranties.  I don't see the "Level of capacity loss required" to activate a warranty claim.
https://electrek.co/2016/12/07/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-battery-degradation-up-to-40-warranty/ (https://electrek.co/2016/12/07/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-battery-degradation-up-to-40-warranty/)

Sounds like 40%, which is a bit high. On the other hand, data collected by a Tesla user forum seems to indicate 5% capacity loss at 50,000 mi, with little roll-off after that:

https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/ (https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/)

Here's another listing:

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107864_electric-car-battery-warranties-compared (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107864_electric-car-battery-warranties-compared)

I know this is anecdotal, but I only know 2 people with a Volt, and both needed their battery refurbished under warranty. They had considerable downtime, as the pack was removed from their car and sent to another part of the country for the rebuild. GM refused to tell them the extent of the rework that was needed.

Was this for reduced capacity reasons, or for failures due to manufacturing defects? I'm aware that the latter has happened, even for the newer cars like the Bolt EV. Bolt forums have a couple of posts where owners found their car would not start, indicating "conditions not right for shift" on the dashboard. These were often on cars with only a few hundred miles, and could be traced to an early lot of batteries from LG.

This was likely mentioned earlier in this very thread, the same concerns were raised when hybrid cars were introduced, and they've all done just fine.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 02, 2018, 04:23:51 am
Worthless anecdotes aside, by all accounts of the > 100k Chevy Volts in the wild, battery failures have been extremely rare. That includes Volts with  >300K miles driven and no apparent battery degradation.

There is a very active Chevy Volt forum (http://gm-volt.com/forum/forum.php) and like all such forums any reported failure is much analyzed and discussed.

My worthless anecdote is that I've had my Volt for 3.5 years and the only maintenance needed so far is one oil change. Next service/oil change coming up in 6 months.  Lowest cost of ownership car I've ever owned - by far..
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 02, 2018, 04:37:15 am
I know this is anecdotal, but I only know 2 people with a Volt, and both needed their battery refurbished under warranty. They had considerable downtime, as the pack was removed from their car and sent to another part of the country for the rebuild. GM refused to tell them the extent of the rework that was needed.

Was this for reduced capacity reasons, or for failures due to manufacturing defects?
The problems were massively reduced capacity, not a solid failure. Both owners believe, from dealer comments, that a substantial number of cells were replaced, but as I said before, GM wouldn't give them a proper answer.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on April 03, 2018, 10:00:58 pm
What still surprises me is that most discussions in this topic are all about very minor issues.

I have been following some lectures on this whole subject recently (I am searching if I can find some papers/videos who cover the same content).
All major big cities and densely populated countries suffer from a very difficult problem; atmospheric particulate matter or in simple words, dust and grime pollution particles in the air.

Most people only know it as smog, which is a very extreme form of this. But even without having that much smog the air quality can be pretty bad and polluted (especially locally).
It is somewhat the equivalent of smoking a couple of packs of cigarettes every month.
(it more or less has the same negative effects).
It basically is the same as letting your kids smoke a cigarette every day, which naturally people wouldn't agree on.

I said it before, it's not a question if electric cars will become mainstream.
They WILL become mainstream. There is more than enough well done research and experiments to provide prove that otherwise our health will be in danger.
That's also one of the reasons why they already ban diesels and old cars in some cities.
I am not saying that I agree on all of it, but in the bigger meaning it makes sense.
And every choice has its consequences. but to be very honest if it can give as a much healthier city to live in, I am willing to sacrifice a thing or two
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 03, 2018, 10:09:00 pm
I said it before, it's not a question if electric cars will become mainstream.
They WILL become mainstream.

I agree. Electric is simply better for everything except noise.

The only thing in the way is the batteries. I'm not sure if higher capacity is really possible, what's really needed is fast charging. If we can get charging down to a couple of minutes then it solves most issues.

(apart from infrastructure needed to get enough electrons to recharging stations)

PS: Engine noise can be synthesized.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2018, 10:11:27 pm
For me the reasons I will not, yet, consider an electric car are:

Cost.
Range.

Electric cars typically cost twice as much as petrol/diesel cars, everything else being the same.  This is somewhat offset by government subsidies though.

Performance v. Cost.  While you can get quite a few little city cars which will be nippy around town or on quick shopping trips, they are fairly under powered.  Given that I drive a 2 litre normally aspirated sports car.  Engine performance aside there are chassis performances and car type factors.  Rear wheel drive sporty electrics are not available in anything like my budget yet.

I'm sure this will change though over time.

Range.  95% of the time I drive about 50 miles a day.  So I could easily plug an electric in overnight or even for an hour at the shopping centre.  The HR girl in work drives a BMW electric (the one with the tiny generator for emergencies), she only ever plugs it in when she goes shopping.  Hasn't spent a penny on electric or fuel in 6 months of owning it.

However there are the handful of times a year when I make a 300-400 mile round trip in a day.  If I owned an average electric city car it just wouldn't be practical with the 100-150mile range.  I'd need to at least stop over at the destination for however long it takes to rapid charge the pack back up to make it home.  If you do run out on the motorway it is an offense in the UK to drive on a motorway knowing that your car is not fit for the journey, suficient fuel included.  You could be prosecuted (though highly unlikely).  Once at the side of the road though, what are your options?  Tow truck?  In a petrol car I can walk, or get a lift to a petrol station and almost all break down providers carry spare fuel.

EDIT: On that later point.  I envision "pluggable" batteries.  Standardised packs the size of a suitcase that goes where the spare wheel would have.  Garages can sell these in a swap an empty for a full one in the same way we do gas cylinders.  This would go a long way to easy range anxiety.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2018, 10:13:30 pm
Copper is becoming a concern.

Already the market for copper in battery cells is putting pressure on electronics, electrics and other domains, the price of copper is rising steadily.

If electric car popularity jumps by an order of magnitude in the next 10 years that will seriously raise the price of a lot of other things.  Recycling of the batteries is lagging behind too.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on April 03, 2018, 10:26:19 pm
I said it before, it's not a question if electric cars will become mainstream.
They WILL become mainstream.

I agree. Electric is simply better for everything except noise.

The only thing in the way is the batteries. I'm not sure if higher capacity is really possible, what's really needed is fast charging. If we can get charging down to a couple of minutes then it solves most issues.

(apart from infrastructure needed to get enough electrons to recharging stations)

PS: Engine noise can be synthesized.
Noise? As in lack of noise you mean i guess?
Like you said, you can do something about that, although most noise actually comes from the tires.
(unless they are driving slowly)

Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.
Nowadays charging to around 80% in 15min is possible, which I think is already very reasonable.

It's just a matter of different thinking and planning. If you drive that far you need to take a (pee) break anyway.
I think the plugin hybrids are a very good alternative, if you're in rural areas emissions are less of an issue anyway.
So use the electric motor for slow speeds and use the combustion engine to keep your car driving around 120km/h.
(at slow speeds your combustion engine is performing bad anyway)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: grumpydoc on April 03, 2018, 10:44:20 pm
The tech that would kill the battery car stone dead, is a fuel cell which runs on something more easily stored than hydrogen or methane. Which may not be all that far away. The Bloom Box came as something of a surprise, and many people thought it was a scam to start with. No, it's actually a great product.  :-+
There was interest in Ethanol fuel cells, what happened to that?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 03, 2018, 11:16:38 pm
For me the reasons I will not, yet, consider an electric car are:

Cost.

Purchase price is high at the moment but running costs are far lower. If you do the math there isn't much difference in equivalent cars.

The problem is more a lack of 'equivalent' cars. Teslas are high-end luxury, Nissan leafs are low-end tiny. There's not an awful lot in between.  :(

Range.

... there are the handful of times a year when I make a 300-400 mile round trip in a day. 

You could rent an ICE car for those days.

(while we wait for them to invent fast-charging batteries)

EDIT: On that later point.  I envision "pluggable" batteries.  Standardised packs the size of a suitcase that goes where the spare wheel would have.  Garages can sell these in a swap an empty for a full one in the same way we do gas cylinders.  This would go a long way to easy range anxiety.

I envision some sort of battery-trailer attachment that you can hook up for long trips.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 03, 2018, 11:33:29 pm
PS: Engine noise can be synthesized.
Noise? As in lack of noise you mean i guess?

No, I mean noise. Some people don't believe they're driving a car unless they're annoying the neighbors with an obnoxiously loud exhaust system.

It's already a solved problem - many luxury cars already have enhanced engine sound at the push of a button.

Some manufacturers are even faking it without telling the buyers (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/americas-best-selling-cars-and-trucks-are-built-on-lies-the-rise-of-fake-engine-noise/2015/01/21/6db09a10-a0ba-11e4-b146-577832eafcb4_story.html?utm_term=.ba1cc3954279). Salesman: "Listen to the engine, that's real power!" :-DD


Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.

The trick would be to increase the voltage, not the amps.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2018, 11:37:46 pm
Some manufacturers are faking it without telling the buyers (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/americas-best-selling-cars-and-trucks-are-built-on-lies-the-rise-of-fake-engine-noise/2015/01/21/6db09a10-a0ba-11e4-b146-577832eafcb4_story.html?utm_term=.ba1cc3954279). Salesman: "Listen to the engine, that's real power!" :-DD

My car has augmented exhaust sound in the cabin, but it's not fake.

It's actually raw analogue in injected induction noise.  The airbox feed pipe to the manifold splits and going through a diaphragm resonator (to keep out the actual air), then pipped to the drivers cabin floor where it comes through a small hole.

It increases the engine note inside the car without annoying the neighbours out side.

If you don't like it, you can pull the blanking plug out of one of the 3 12V utility sockets, pull teh carpet back and stuff it in the hole muting it. :)

Alternatively you can go to any carphooler website or even the manufacturer tuning brand (TRD) and buy different plug to change the sound for £35 each.... for a plastic plug.  A plastic wine 'cork' will do too.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 03, 2018, 11:42:37 pm
If you don't like it, you can pull the blanking plug out of one of the 3 12V utility sockets, pull teh carpet back and stuff it in the hole muting it. :)

Alternatively you can go to any carphooler website or even the manufacturer tuning brand (TRD) and buy different plug to change the sound for £35 each.... for a plastic plug.  A plastic wine 'cork' will do too.

If I were the manufacturer I'd add a $1 electric valve, a $0.50 switch labelled "sports mode", and sell it as a $250 option.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 04, 2018, 12:03:40 am
If you don't like it, you can pull the blanking plug out of one of the 3 12V utility sockets, pull teh carpet back and stuff it in the hole muting it. :)

Alternatively you can go to any carphooler website or even the manufacturer tuning brand (TRD) and buy different plug to change the sound for £35 each.... for a plastic plug.  A plastic wine 'cork' will do too.

If I were the manufacturer I'd add a $1 electric valve, a $0.50 switch labelled "sports mode", and sell it as a $250 option.

You know the VW Bettle (The new one based on the Polo?)  I found out the other day that the plastic sunflower you see on the dash of those is actually a purchase time option with a fairly non-trivial value for a plastic plant you can buy at a market stall for $0.99!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 04, 2018, 02:40:41 am

Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.
Nowadays charging to around 80% in 15min is possible, which I think is already very reasonable.

I still don't understand why so many people get hung up on fast charging. Most of us already plug in our phones every night, how much of an adjustment is it to plug in our cars every night too? I know several people with electric cars now and that's exactly what they all do. Pull into the driveway or garage, get out, plug the cord into the car then head into the house. All of them love the fact that it's so convenient, it's like having a gas station right in their own driveway.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on April 04, 2018, 03:17:24 am
PS: Engine noise can be synthesized.
Noise? As in lack of noise you mean i guess?

No, I mean noise. Some people don't believe they're driving a car unless they're annoying the neighbors with an obnoxiously loud exhaust system.

It's already a solved problem - many luxury cars already have enhanced engine sound at the push of a button.

Some manufacturers are even faking it without telling the buyers (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/americas-best-selling-cars-and-trucks-are-built-on-lies-the-rise-of-fake-engine-noise/2015/01/21/6db09a10-a0ba-11e4-b146-577832eafcb4_story.html?utm_term=.ba1cc3954279). Salesman: "Listen to the engine, that's real power!" :-DD


Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.

The trick would be to increase the voltage, not the amps.
Increasing voltage or amps, it's still the same amount of ENERGY, which is dangerous.


Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.
Nowadays charging to around 80% in 15min is possible, which I think is already very reasonable.

I still don't understand why so many people get hung up on fast charging. Most of us already plug in our phones every night, how much of an adjustment is it to plug in our cars every night too? I know several people with electric cars now and that's exactly what they all do. Pull into the driveway or garage, get out, plug the cord into the car then head into the house. All of them love the fact that it's so convenient, it's like having a gas station right in their own driveway.
It's about when your batteries are empty after a long drive, halfway your journey.
For daily commute you can charge at night yes
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 04, 2018, 03:28:33 am
I still don't understand why so many people get hung up on fast charging. Most of us already plug in our phones every night, how much of an adjustment is it to plug in our cars every night too? I know several people with electric cars now and that's exactly what they all do. Pull into the driveway or garage, get out, plug the cord into the car then head into the house. All of them love the fact that it's so convenient, it's like having a gas station right in their own driveway.
Fast charging is all about long journeys, not the daily run around.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 04, 2018, 03:35:06 am
I still don't understand why so many people get hung up on fast charging. Most of us already plug in our phones every night, how much of an adjustment is it to plug in our cars every night too? I know several people with electric cars now and that's exactly what they all do. Pull into the driveway or garage, get out, plug the cord into the car then head into the house. All of them love the fact that it's so convenient, it's like having a gas station right in their own driveway.

a) In the world we live in an awful lot of people have to park in the street.
b) Long journeys or overnighting away from home.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 04, 2018, 03:40:59 am
Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.
The trick would be to increase the voltage, not the amps.
Increasing voltage or amps, it's still the same amount of ENERGY, which is dangerous.

Not quite: Voltage is more manageable than amps, danger-wise - see the discussion of arc flash in the analog vs. digital meter blog thread.

What I really meant to say was that less amps is better for the batteries/cables/connectors. As a side benefit you also get less overall losses in the system.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 04, 2018, 03:53:30 am
I still don't understand why so many people get hung up on fast charging. Most of us already plug in our phones every night, how much of an adjustment is it to plug in our cars every night too? I know several people with electric cars now and that's exactly what they all do. Pull into the driveway or garage, get out, plug the cord into the car then head into the house. All of them love the fact that it's so convenient, it's like having a gas station right in their own driveway.

a) In the world we live in an awful lot of people have to park in the street.
b) Long journeys or overnighting away from home.
Street parking could be a problem, but there are plenty of others. Tesla has sold a lot of cars in HK. Most people who can afford one have an assigned parking space within their apartment block. However, the building management people won't usually give permission for power to be laid on at that parking space. Thus, they can only charge at a supercharger, but those are occupied all day long. If you go to the superchargers in the middle of the night you'll find a line of Teslas driven by Filipino maids, getting the car ready for the boss in the morning. With gas powered cars the boss takes 5 minutes a week to refill their own car.

I think issues like this are mostly short term. Facilities will improve. At some point I expect all the HK Tesla owners will get power at their parking space. Streets heavily used for parking will get some kind of outlet. The longer term need for fast charging is really long journeys.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on April 04, 2018, 04:32:59 am
By that time it will be financially far more efficient to dump the car in the scrap yard and buy a new one than to replace the battery, which will probably cost a sizable portion of a whole new car!
They are actually servicable with exchange of single cells based on wear and all that. There is surprisingly little information about cars which needed new batteries in the wild.

Quote
If electric car popularity jumps by an order of magnitude in the next 10 years that will seriously raise the price of a lot of other things.
Some mines are about the be reopened because it suddenly became economically viable again to operate them. That might slow down an upward spiral.

Quote
Recycling of the batteries is lagging behind too.
With increasing price recycling becomes a business too. In general i wouldn´t panic because of such predictions as such systems tend to self moderate over time.  Materials that stay in solid form can and will be recycled when it is necessary. I wouldn´t buy into - "it is dead, therefore it is worthless" claims but kind of see these as what they are.

Rather consider it a problem blowing oil irreversibly(*) into the atmosphere without the ability to produce new oil - or breathing that.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 04, 2018, 04:39:17 am
a) In the world we live in an awful lot of people have to park in the street.
b) Long journeys or overnighting away from home.

Those aren't really the target market for electric cars. There are many millions of people who park in their driveway or garage, and the vast majority of their driving is commuting to work. The guys I know with electric cars are in two-car households with one conventional car and use the electric primarily for commuting to work. I hear loads of people in similar multi-car households getting hung up on the same issues that really are hardly relevant to them. Just because it's not a solution for everybody doesn't mean it's not a solution for a large number of people.

There are also other options, for example if you need to overnight somewhere or take a long trip once in a while, it's possible to rent a car, or ride share, or get a ride from a friend. Lots of people don't own any car at all and do one of these things whenever mass transit cannot meet their needs. For street parking it would be possible to install curbside charging stations but for the time being those people are probably better off with conventional cars. I just see so much of this "well it won't work for me therefore it's unsuitable for anybody" logic, it's ridiculous.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: richard.cs on April 07, 2018, 07:59:58 pm
Those aren't really the target market for electric cars. There are many millions of people who park in their driveway or garage, and the vast majority of their driving is commuting to work. The guys I know with electric cars are in two-car households with one conventional car and use the electric primarily for commuting to work. I hear loads of people in similar multi-car households getting hung up on the same issues that really are hardly relevant to them. Just because it's not a solution for everybody doesn't mean it's not a solution for a large number of people.

This. Right now electric cars are suitable for a huge number of people, just not everyone, and people get too hung up on the everyone bit. My girlfriend is determined her next car will be electric, she primarily wants the convenience of overnight charging in her garage, environmental and cost benefits are a consideration but secondary. Her car essentially only does long  (> charge range) journeys when we go on holiday and when we do that we already (in a petrol car) stop for an hour or so in a few hundred miles, neither of us want to drive much further than that without a break. Other's might want to take it in turns to drive a thousand miles in one stretch* but they are not currently the target market and should probably buy a diesel BMW. Once she gets her EV we might use public chargers on occasion or use my car occasionally on a day when we might more conveniently have used hers, but that's outweighed by the many petrol station detours saved.

Electric cars are already good enough to be more "mainstream" than motorcycles.

*not in the UK though, you'd end up in the sea or back where you started
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 07, 2018, 08:30:52 pm
Base on this:
https://pod-point.com/landing-pages/how-long-does-it-take-to-charge-an-electric-car

To drive from, say, Belfast to Malaga, approximately 1800 miles, would require...

Starting from a full overnight charge before hand.  Assuming motorway service stations can be found at all stages for fast charging and the car supports 22kW charge rate:

"80 miles of range per hour"  or  (1800 - 200 initial range) / 80 mph charge rate = 20 hours charging time.  PLUS the 31 hours actual driving time.  So 51 hours if done with drivers taking shifts.

Making it more realistic with 16 hour days, 8 hours sleeping, 2 drivers in shifts and an average speed, mostly motorway of 60mph and a 200 mile range.

3 hours = 180 miles + 2.25 hours charging = 5.25 hours per "stint", per 180 miles.
Swap drivers repeat.
3 stints per day, giving 15.75 hours, 9 hours driving, 6.75 hours charging, 540 miles travelled per day.
You will reach Malaga late on the 4th day.

In a petrol car the numbers are significantly different.
3 hours = 180miles + 0.25 hours refilling = 3.25 hours per stint, per 180 miles.
Swap drivers repeat.
5 stints per day, giving 16.25, 15 hours driving, 1.25 hours refilling, 900 miles.
You would reach Malaga end of the second day.

This does not account for the petrol car having as much as 400 mile range, although the driver shifts of 3 hours seems fair.

Not to mention how much you will shorten the battery life of the car rapidly charging it from nearly flat to full 8-12 times each way.

I don't know how much rapid chargers cost to use, presumably it's cheaper than petrol still, but for the electric you have the added cost of an extra 2 over nights in B&Bs at 100+ Euro a night for 2 sharing.

Any mistakes in the petrol car and you call a recovery service to bring you petrol.  Any mistakes in the electric and you need a tow truck.  You would be safer in a semi-hybrid like the BMW which has a generator to slow charge the battery if you get stuck.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 08, 2018, 07:34:08 pm
Base on this:
https://pod-point.com/landing-pages/how-long-does-it-take-to-charge-an-electric-car

To drive from, say, Belfast to Malaga, approximately 1800 miles, would require...

(... something complicated with teams of drivers that took 4 days)

Why didn't they just rent a gasoline car instead of all that?

and, (b) The more mainstream they become, the more charging stations, etc.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 08, 2018, 09:00:07 pm
Why didn't they just rent a gasoline car instead of all that?

and, (b) The more mainstream they become, the more charging stations, etc.

Because a car, with cross Europe support, costs between £100 and £200 a day + mileage surcharges.

However, if we get to a stage were 90% of commuters own electric cars and rent petrol cars for long trips the pricing of rentals might come down as demand rises.

To be honest, it would of course be cheaper to fly.  If you are not taking your own car, it limits the reason to take a car at all.  Then the debate becomes one of CO2 per passenger, per mile versus the car.

More charging stations won't help, the example assumes plenty are available.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 09, 2018, 12:49:12 am
Because a car, with cross Europe support, costs between £100 and £200 a day + mileage surcharges.

If you're driving all the way across Europe instead of flying  then I don't think it's because you enjoy driving, you have a very good reason to be doing it. A reason that probably involves earning money, so...  :-//

and, (b) Of course there's pathological cases. The point is that most people don't drive that way.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on April 09, 2018, 02:11:50 am
Mine's on order, and 30A / 240V outlet has been installed in the garage.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Galenbo on April 09, 2018, 06:42:38 am
EDIT: On that later point.  I envision "pluggable" batteries.  Standardised packs the size of a suitcase that goes where the spare wheel would have.  Garages can sell these in a swap an empty for a full one in the same way we do gas cylinders.  This would go a long way to easy range anxiety.
Pluggable batteries are technically an easy task, but in opposition to total weight and distribution of mass.
The batteries are placed/distributed now in the most ideal location, making them removable with decent fast trays will surely change that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 09, 2018, 07:13:28 am
Very few people go on 1800 mile road trips. I've done it myself but only 2 or 3 times in my entire life, if I had an electric car I'd rent, borrow or buy a fuel powered car for the occasion and still come out far ahead. That's one of those edge cases that doesn't really matter for more people. If you need to deal with an edge case that your electric car won't handle easily, you do the same thing millions of people with no car at all do.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 07:21:22 am
Because a car, with cross Europe support, costs between £100 and £200 a day + mileage surcharges.
If you're driving all the way across Europe instead of flying  then I don't think it's because you enjoy driving, you have a very good reason to be doing it. A reason that probably involves earning money, so...  :-//
Exactly. If you need to visit a couple of cities across Europe a car quickly becomes more viable than an airplane due to the flexibility (been there, done that). Ofcourse the current EVs are not an option due to limited range and charge time.

@James_s: people actually do exactly the opposite of what you are claiming: they buy cars which fullfill that edge case. The less space and/or the more taxes on ownership the more versatile the car must be. For example: if people have a caravan they buy a car which can pull a caravan even though they only pull the caravan 2 or 3 times per year.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 09, 2018, 08:09:24 am
This discussion illustrates again why a plug-in "serial hybrid"  (like the Volt or others) makes perfect sense. They give you 30-50 miles of all electric range (which probably covers >90% peoples daily needs) plus the ability to do longer trips using gasoline and not worry about range or recharge time.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 09, 2018, 08:17:54 am
Yes that's because many people are dumb, if they want to spend way more money to buy a car for an edge case that's their problem, it's their money. That's kind of my point though, people get hung up on largely irrelevant details and edge cases when there are perfectly sensible ways of working around them.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Galenbo on April 09, 2018, 08:33:52 am
This discussion illustrates again why a plug-in "serial hybrid"  (like the Volt or others) makes perfect sense. They give you 30-50 miles of all electric range (which probably covers >90% peoples daily needs) plus the ability to do longer trips using gasoline and not worry about range or recharge time.

Ok, but here goes that the car will consume more nuclear because an unused gasoline engine has to be transported,
or will consume more gasoline because the unused batteries have to be transported.

Combined with higher/double manufacturing/recycling gasoline costs.

A genset on trailer for Tesla would be a better solution, if you could rent these and drop where you want.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 09, 2018, 08:50:15 am
This discussion illustrates again why a plug-in "serial hybrid"  (like the Volt or others) makes perfect sense. They give you 30-50 miles of all electric range (which probably covers >90% peoples daily needs) plus the ability to do longer trips using gasoline and not worry about range or recharge time.

Ok, but here goes that the car will consume more nuclear because an unused gasoline engine has to be transported,
or will consume more gasoline because the unused batteries have to be transported.

Combined with higher/double manufacturing/recycling gasoline costs

That's not the way it works. In the case of the Volt at least, it is not a gasoline car + EV stuck together. The engine functions primarily as a genset to charge batteries/power the more efficient electric motor.  When the battery is fully drained, the fuel efficiency of the ICE is on par with the most efficient ICE only autos.

As far as nuclear - that depends.  In my case, my Volt charging is done almost exclusively with solar PV (my own) and Hydro (Columbia river hydro grid power).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Galenbo on April 09, 2018, 09:03:04 am
Braking energy recycling and a better efficiency in very slow modus are indeed big advantages of the Bi-cars
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 09, 2018, 09:26:56 am
I've been driving a Tesla Model S as my primary car since 2013 so I have a little experience with the issues. I went with an EV once the range got above 200 miles (320 km). Long drives might seem like an edge case to some but these are relatively frequent. While most people in the US drive less than 12 miles for their daily commute to work, the real issue for EV range is the longest monthly drive. It's quite common to have to do a lot of driving in a single day once a month or so.  When my kids were in school, they would sometimes have events that required at least an hour of driving, one way. Plenty of other things cause a need for a lot of driving. Total distance in a day of >100 miles is not at all uncommon.  So, that is what defines EV range requirements for consumers. This is why the first gen EVs with 70-80 mile range did not sell that well.

Sure, one could buy a hybrid like a Prius or a Volt though that's still depending on petrol. I personally wanted to cut that cord.

Now, unlike every other EV automaker, Telsa has built a fast DC charging network - SuperChargers. These are 90 to 120 KW units. There are over 1000 sites worldwide, almost 500 in the US. They are positioned on major motorways at about 2-3 hrs driving time apart (a lot closer in California and Florida). I can drive almost anywhere in the contiguous 48 states using the SC network. Recharging is fairly fast, less than an hour at the worst but you only need to charge enough to get to the next SC (the car will tell you when you can continue). Typically, you need to break for bathrooms/food/coffee/stretch every couple of hours anyway so it's not so bad. That 1800 mile trip is still longer in a Tesla than an ICE but it's not dramatically so.  The SC network is a strategic advantage that other automakers have yet to copy. The Tesla model 3 is currently outselling even the Toyota Prius Prime in the US. It may be an edge case but long distance travel is a factor in buying decisions in the US.

One of the things that isn't discussed very much about EVs is that they are much easier to manufacture. The head of the Korean auto workers union was recently quoted as saying something to the effect that EVs are evil. He sees jobs going away. I've seen numbers like 40% less labor to assemble an EV vs an ICE (and even bigger differential when you talk about true hybrids).

And, recently there have been some surprising reports about the amount of electricity needed to extract and refine a gallon of petrol (https://www.autoblog.com/2011/10/14/how-gas-cars-use-more-electricity-to-go-100-miles-than-evs-do/). There is an imputed watt-hours per mile cost for ICE vehicles than can exceed the watt-hours per mile consumption of a pure EV. One of the logical extensions of this is that the carbon footprint of ICE vehicles needs to factor in the CF of electricity generation for extraction/refining.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 09:40:12 am
Yes that's because many people are dumb, if they want to spend way more money to buy a car for an edge case that's their problem, it's their money. That's kind of my point though, people get hung up on largely irrelevant details and edge cases when there are perfectly sensible ways of working around them.
One car is always cheaper than two. Also take my caravan example again: most people will use it to go on a holiday so demand will be high during very specific periods if people are going to rent a car to tow a caravan. This means that the rental companies will have cars sitting on their lot which they only rent for a few weeks per year. As a consumer you'll pay for that one way or another. Ergo: your reasoning doesn't work on a larger scale.

@phil: now factor in how much electricity is needed to make the battery pack for an EV and how much gas&coalis being burned to make that electricity. In lots of countries they use way more efficient cars compared to the US and electricity production has a very large CO2 footprint. In those cases EVs don't reduce CO2 output but they just move the point of emission.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on April 09, 2018, 10:20:24 am
@phil: now factor in how much electricity is needed to make the battery pack for an EV and how much gas&coalis being burned to make that electricity. In lots of countries they use way more efficient cars compared to the US and electricity production has a very large CO2 footprint. In those cases EVs don't reduce CO2 output but they just move the point of emission.
Burning fossil fuel at power station is still around 2-4 times more efficient compared to ICE.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 09, 2018, 11:30:14 am
One car is always cheaper than two. Also take my caravan example again: most people will use it to go on a holiday so demand will be high during very specific periods if people are going to rent a car to tow a caravan. This means that the rental companies will have cars sitting on their lot which they only rent for a few weeks per year. As a consumer you'll pay for that one way or another. Ergo: your reasoning doesn't work on a larger scale.


Doesn't matter, almost every family I know has at least two cars, quite a few with kids of driving age have three cars, some have more. I can't be bothered to look up the numbers but last I heard there are more cars registered than there are licensed drivers in the US. That supports my anecdotal observation that most families have more than one car, so there are clearly millions and millions and millions of households that could easily get by with a pure EV in place of one of their conventional cars. Then there are many, many thousands of people who don't own any car at all, obviously that can't work right? Except that it does because they do it. The caravan/camper example is another edge case, I know a few people who have those and every one of them has a silly big truck to pull it with in addition to at least one regular car. Is it necessary? Well, not to me, if I wanted to take a trip with a trailer I'd either rent an RV or get a small trailer I could pull behind one of my cars but I prefer tent camping and that's beside the point anyway. There is a thriving RV rental industry though so clearly quite a few people have figured out that it's cheaper to rent one for one or two trips a year all the costs of owning, storing and maintaining their own. You're hung up on edge cases that simply don't apply to a majority of people. Clearly they apply to you, that's fine, but recognize that there are *millions* of people for whom it's simply a non issue.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 09, 2018, 06:19:50 pm
Also take my caravan example again...

Owning/towing caravans is a pain in the ass. Much better to occasionally rent a motorhome than to own your own caravan and drive a gas guzzler all year round just so you can take it somewhere.

Plus: Somebody else maintains them, they don't take up any space and they'll be replaced regularly so you'll always have a recent model.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 09, 2018, 07:45:04 pm
EDIT: On that later point.  I envision "pluggable" batteries.  Standardised packs the size of a suitcase that goes where the spare wheel would have.  Garages can sell these in a swap an empty for a full one in the same way we do gas cylinders.  This would go a long way to easy range anxiety.
Pluggable batteries are technically an easy task, but in opposition to total weight and distribution of mass.
The batteries are placed/distributed now in the most ideal location, making them removable with decent fast trays will surely change that.

My idea is not to make the entire battery pack pluggable.  Just a small reserve pack in the boot.  Something the size of carry on luggage, small suit case, weighing around 10Kg.  With enough juice to get your 30 miles or so, maybe.  A car could have two of them in the boot/trunk.  When the car switches over to using these you get the warning light.  When the first one goes dead, the warning light flashes. 

You can then swap these emergency reserve packs at a filling station to get you an extra few miles and maybe get you home.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 07:59:12 pm
@phil: now factor in how much electricity is needed to make the battery pack for an EV and how much gas&coalis being burned to make that electricity. In lots of countries they use way more efficient cars compared to the US and electricity production has a very large CO2 footprint. In those cases EVs don't reduce CO2 output but they just move the point of emission.
Burning fossil fuel at power station is still around 2-4 times more efficient compared to ICE.
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on April 09, 2018, 08:59:30 pm
Burning fossil fuel at power station is still around 2-4 times more efficient compared to ICE.
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.
Take into account that an ICEs efficiency is directly linked to the traffic or to the pedal. Those efficiency figures are measured under ideal conditions (cruising at steady speed and fixed load), which most often don´t apply. It still needs to work outside this band, which requires additional provisions, makes the whole emission regulation more difficult and the whole thing heavier as well. These numbers multiplied by the amount of cars in operation tells you something.

A power station runs under vastly differenct circumstances, it is designed to run in that mode constantly and maybe even unable to run outside it´s band.

EVs sidetrack those problems and are multifuel capable by converting it all to electrical power and then storing it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 09:31:47 pm
Burning fossil fuel at power station is still around 2-4 times more efficient compared to ICE.
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.
Take into account that an ICEs efficiency is directly linked to the traffic or to the pedal. Those efficiency figures are measured under ideal conditions (cruising at steady speed and fixed load), which most often don´t apply. It still needs to work outside this band, which requires additional provisions, makes the whole emission regulation more difficult and the whole thing heavier as well.
Wrong. The EPA tests cars under real driving circumstances so you can simply check the numbers yourself. Engines with a turbo have a very large RPM range in which they are efficient and they don't have to be slow either. Look at Ford's 1.0 ecoboost engine for example which can produce 93kW over a very wide RPM range. Cars fitted with this type of engine produce less CO2 than comparable diesels and are on the heels of hybrid vehicles. And there is more to come when the EU starts to use better test methods for cars.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 09, 2018, 09:56:56 pm
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.

Lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2 WLTP. Latest leaf does 40/270 kwh/km WLTP, latest coal plants have 46+% efficiency, lets do 10% transmission/conversion losses, 340 grams of CO2 per kwh total energy for coal. So 40/270*340*1/(0.46*0.9) is 121+. Pretty much the same ignoring CO2 expenditure for mining/refining.

Can't find WLTP numbers for a Ford Fiesta Ecoboost, but another index promising realistic tests http://equaindex.com (http://equaindex.com) gives numbers in the same ballpark.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 10:10:07 pm
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.

Lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2 WLTP. Latest leaf does 40/270 kwh/km WLTP, latest coal plants have 46+% efficiency, lets do 10% transmission/conversion losses, 340 grams of CO2 per kwh total energy for coal. So 40/270*340*1/(0.46*0.9) is 121+. Pretty much the same ignoring CO2 expenditure for mining/refining.
You are forgetting that (at least) 5% of the fuel is bio-fuel.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 09, 2018, 10:24:33 pm
Nuclear, renewable or even gas can take the CO2 production down too. I'm just doing ballpark figures.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 09, 2018, 10:26:43 pm
You are forgetting that (at least) 5% of the fuel is bio-fuel.
You say that like its more ecologically friendly than the rest of the fuel.  ;)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NANDBlog on April 09, 2018, 10:39:30 pm
You are forgetting that (at least) 5% of the fuel is bio-fuel.
You say that like its more ecologically friendly than the rest of the fuel.  ;)
Yeah, I mean, involving the 3 largest polluter industry must reduce the pollution in the first largest industry, right? That is how math works. Also, it is good for us, that farmers are producing now stuff, only to make bioethanol, instead of using the waste as it was planned. (BTW good farmers know, there is no such thing as waste in farming, only you just dont know how to use it).
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.

Lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2 WLTP. Latest leaf does 40/270 kwh/km WLTP, latest coal plants have 46+% efficiency, lets do 10% transmission/conversion losses, 340 grams of CO2 per kwh total energy for coal. So 40/270*340*1/(0.46*0.9) is 121+. Pretty much the same ignoring CO2 expenditure for mining/refining.

Can't find WLTP numbers for a Ford Fiesta Ecoboost, but another index promising realistic tests http://equaindex.com (http://equaindex.com) gives numbers in the same ballpark.
Nobody is suggesting that coal powered electric cars are good. You can generate electricity from renewable sources, with almost 0 CO2. You can only generate diesel from dead dinosaurs, and those are not renewable.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: richard.cs on April 09, 2018, 10:48:27 pm
So an EV is on par in CO2 emissions with a modern diesel if all the electricity generation is from coal. The UK average for 2017 was 292 g/kWh which is around a 14% improvement on that, a bit worse than I expected but that's what the data says. What this ignores however are the expected future trends in generation mix (more solar and wind are being built right now and lots of coal plants are scheduled to close within the next decade), and also the air quality benefits (NOx, particulates, etc.) of concentrating emissions in a few stationary (and therefore not weight limited) locations where it's more cost effective to deal with than millions of tail pipes in city centres.

In Europe much of the push for electric vehicles is driven from the latter consideration, air quality in a lot of cities is poor.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on April 09, 2018, 11:03:44 pm
You can only generate diesel from dead dinosaurs, and those are not renewable.
I'm not a fan of diesel, but you certainly can generate diesel from renewable stuff. Search for biodiesel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 09, 2018, 11:26:24 pm
You can only generate diesel from dead dinosaurs, and those are not renewable.
I'm not a fan of diesel, but you certainly can generate diesel from renewable stuff. Search for biodiesel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel)
Try looking for analyses of how many litres of dead dinosaur are used to make each litre of biodiesel.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 11:43:15 pm
You can only generate diesel from dead dinosaurs, and those are not renewable.
I'm not a fan of diesel, but you certainly can generate diesel from renewable stuff. Search for biodiesel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel)
Try looking for analyses of how many litres of dead dinosaur are used to make each litre of biodiesel.
The same goes for solar panels. Then again there is also bio-ethanol which can be used in any (relatively) modern petrol engine.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 10, 2018, 12:27:38 am
... and how many dead dinosaurs go into making an EV?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on April 10, 2018, 12:59:37 am
Then again there is also bio-ethanol which can be used in any (relatively) modern petrol engine.
Which drives the food prices up. You need to grow somewhere the crops required for it's production.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 10, 2018, 03:22:36 am
Then again there is also bio-ethanol which can be used in any (relatively) modern petrol engine.
Which drives the food prices up. You need to grow somewhere the crops required for it's production.
Wrong. New processes (3rd generation bio fuels) use leftovers so bio-fuel drives the food price down because more of the plants is used. Google Poet-DSM . The best thing is that there is a crap load of agricultural leftovers which could supply a significant amount of fuel.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on April 10, 2018, 03:53:53 am
Then again there is also bio-ethanol which can be used in any (relatively) modern petrol engine.
Which drives the food prices up. You need to grow somewhere the crops required for it's production.
Wrong. New processes (3rd generation bio fuels) use leftovers so bio-fuel drives the food price down because more of the plants is used. Google Poet-DSM . The best thing is that there is a crap load of agricultural leftovers which could supply a significant amount of fuel.
It's just non commercialized research so far.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 10, 2018, 04:27:18 am
They got the first factory up & running with tens of millions invested. That isn't research but commercial operation. Over the past few years the amount of ethanol exported by the US has been increasing steadily so there is a growing market.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on April 10, 2018, 04:50:09 am
Wrong. The EPA tests cars under real driving circumstances so you can simply check the numbers yourself. Engines with a turbo have a very large RPM range in which they are efficient and they don't have to be slow either. Look at Ford's 1.0 ecoboost engine for example which can produce 93kW over a very wide RPM range. Cars fitted with this type of engine produce less CO2 than comparable diesels and are on the heels of hybrid vehicles. And there is more to come when the EU starts to use better test methods for cars.
We are not talking EPA/NEDC/WLTP/RDE, we are talking BSFC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brake_specific_fuel_consumption). Whatever number you want to use, it can not exceed that, except for parking.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 10, 2018, 05:39:37 am
Wrong. The EPA tests cars under real driving circumstances so you can simply check the numbers yourself. Engines with a turbo have a very large RPM range in which they are efficient and they don't have to be slow either. Look at Ford's 1.0 ecoboost engine for example which can produce 93kW over a very wide RPM range. Cars fitted with this type of engine produce less CO2 than comparable diesels and are on the heels of hybrid vehicles. And there is more to come when the EU starts to use better test methods for cars.
We are not talking EPA/NEDC/WLTP/RDE, we are talking BSFC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brake_specific_fuel_consumption). Whatever number you want to use, it can not exceed that, except for parking.
If BSFC provided a good number for cars then it would be used for car testing. But it is not so it is not relevant in this discussion. BSFC is about engine efficiency and not CO2 emission of the entire car so the BSFC number is not painting the entire picture. You can put a less efficient engine in a car and still have lower CO2 emissions compared to a similar car with a (on paper) more efficient engine. IOW: you need a test which tests the car as it is in realistic driving circumstances which include the influence of aerodynamics, gearbox ratios, etc, etc.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on April 10, 2018, 06:02:54 am
Not when comparing against a power station, which was what caused your statement.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 10, 2018, 06:22:53 am
Not when comparing against a power station, which was what caused your statement.
Also doesn't matter. CO2 emission is what counts. The CO2 emissions are publicly available for both electricity generation and how much is output by an ICE based car so you can very easely calculate how much grams of CO2 takes you from A to B. There really is no reason to make it any more complicated than that. Don't forget that CO2 emissions include all the losses so they offer a really good comparison of various ways of transportation.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NANDBlog on April 10, 2018, 06:58:43 am
Not when comparing against a power station, which was what caused your statement.
Also doesn't matter. CO2 emission is what counts. The CO2 emissions are publicly available for both electricity generation and how much is output by an ICE based car so you can very easely calculate how much grams of CO2 takes you from A to B. There really is no reason to make it any more complicated than that. Don't forget that CO2 emissions include all the losses so they offer a really good comparison of various ways of transportation.
CO2 is not everything. In fact, you dont get cancer and die 25 years early because of CO2.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 10, 2018, 11:15:55 am
@phil: now factor in how much electricity is needed to make the battery pack for an EV and how much gas&coalis being burned to make that electricity. In lots of countries they use way more efficient cars compared to the US and electricity production has a very large CO2 footprint. In those cases EVs don't reduce CO2 output but they just move the point of emission.
This is oft repeated but based on old data (NiCad manufacturing energy costs from 1990s and ignored battery recycling). The reality is that even using coal fired electricity, there is a break-even point where the EV even with the battery manufacturing factored in is "greener" than a similar sized ICE.  For my power company, it's pretty quick - 32K miles which I have surpassed. Also, that break-even analysis did NOT include the carbon cost of generating the electricity needed to extract, refine and distribute the gasoline the ICE used. So, it's likely that the real break even point for an EV is much sooner. I'm looking for the article that discusses this but am coming up blank.  Here's one that addresses the issue but not the one I'm thinking of. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2016/04/22/the-carbon-footprint-of-tesla-manufacturing/#4a6d1b7a6096) Will keep looking.

Also, consider this - an ICE vehicle will never be more green than the day it is delivered. An EV will never be less green than the day it's delivered (because improvements in the efficiency generating electricity are on-going and wind turbines are coming on line at an accelerating rate). This assumes both vehicles are properly maintained.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 10, 2018, 11:06:26 pm
Also doesn't matter. CO2 emission is what counts. The CO2 emissions are publicly available for both electricity generation and how much is output by an ICE based car so you can very easely calculate how much grams of CO2 takes you from A to B.

For a significant increase in electric cars, the electricity will be delivered by new generation ... we will need more capacity. Basing their CO2 production on the existing generating mix is as useful as taking the average of the existing diesel/petrol car park to judge their CO2 production. That's why I took the numbers for a recently built (but in production) coal generating plant.

PS. I think CO2 impact on increasing temperatures and rising sea levels is way overhyped and electric cars are impractical except as a second car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 10, 2018, 11:40:46 pm
Also, consider this - an ICE vehicle will never be more green than the day it is delivered. An EV will never be less green than the day it's delivered (because improvements in the efficiency generating electricity are on-going and wind turbines are coming on line at an accelerating rate). This assumes both vehicles are properly maintained.
Now you are assuming that ICE cars will always run on pure fossil fuel. The reality is that every modern petrol car can run on ethanol (which also burns cleaner compared to fossil fuel). It is hard to predict right now but it is possible that bio-fuels will become common sooner than batteries which give EVs a useful range and short charging times.

However the hard fact is that ICE cars allow a gradual transition towards renewable energy without a large investment in the car and infrastructure. That transition is already ongoing. I always fill our cars with the fuel blend which has the most ethanol. If you buy an EV you are stuck to charging from day one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 11, 2018, 12:57:08 am
Define 'burns cleaner'. Ethanol has a lower energy density, releases the same amounts of CO2 per unit energy produced and can cause some issues on vehicles not designed for it (https://www.girardgibbs.com/docs/cases/67_ducati-class-notice.PDF).

Also, unless that ethanol came from second-generation sources, it takes away from arable crops. I don't know what the situation is in NL, but in the US this is only sustainable due to the efforts of the corn lobby.

Finally, at least two members of this forum had just posted that we already drive EVs with a net zero carbon footprint due to home solar installations. No need to do any future projections, we're already at 100% renewable transportation even without large scale infrastructure changes. I would expect that especially in NL, with an existing and growing renewable energy grid supply, this would be easier to achieve (for ex. with a smaller solar installation).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 11, 2018, 01:15:47 am
Solar is only viable for the happy few with a large enough roof. In the NL that is rare. Also I'd need to buy an EV but then again on my (average) roof I can only generate half of my annual electricity usage. All in all solar panels on roofs are a pipe dream which is not going to happen on a large enough scale any time soon.

Ofcourse like solar and wind bio-fuels need lots of subsidies as well to develop the technology and create a market.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 11, 2018, 01:28:57 am
Solar is only viable for the happy few with a large enough roof. In the NL that is rare. Also I'd need to buy an EV but then again on my (average) roof I can only generate half of my annual electricity usage.
Ofcourse like solar and wind bio-fuels need lots of subsidies as well to develop the technology and create a market.
You also need storage, since on weekdays most people can only have their car at home for charging when its dark.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gertux on April 11, 2018, 02:07:48 am
Solar is only viable for the happy few with a large enough roof. In the NL that is rare. Also I'd need to buy an EV but then again on my (average) roof I can only generate half of my annual electricity usage. All in all solar panels on roofs are a pipe dream which is not going to happen on a large enough scale any time soon.

Ofcourse like solar and wind bio-fuels need lots of subsidies as well to develop the technology and create a market.
I’ve got solar panels on half the roof and it generates enough to cover my family’s anual electricity usage, installed 12 years ago, investment broke even 4 years ago. We live in Belgium, so we have about the same shitty weather as Holland ;-)

My next car will be an EV and at that time we’ll increase the solar capacity, we’ve got another half of the roof available. We only have 1 car because we live near our jobs, 11km which are covered by bike 90% of the time. The children go to school and university by train, 10 and 15 minutes ride.

An EV that has an automy of 200km covers all our use cases : commutes to clients not in Brussels, visits to my wifes family ;-( 35km and short trips.

On holidays we don’t bring our house (sleurhut), we rent.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 11, 2018, 02:18:51 am
Large-scale solar on roofs is a pipe dream? Southern California (where they produce *too much* power (https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-07-20/california-s-electrical-grid-can-t-handle-all-solar-energy-state-producing) at some times of the year) would beg to differ. Local storage is not really necessary for grid-tie installations, but would be nice (that's going to be my next project). Grid-level storage would solve California-style problems, among other things (ref: Tesla's Hornsdale battery).

One of the approaches my city takes for people who can't afford PV (either cash or roof space) is community solar. There are two pilot projects currently in operation. For what it's worth, the inspector from my city/power company was quite positive about our solar install, and said it he wished more folks would do the same. I'm speculating, but I expect the extra cost of monitoring and balancing a local grid with local PV production is less than the expense to buy short-term power from the regional grid.

You also need storage, since on weekdays most people can only have their car at home for charging when its dark.
I'm sure I don't represent most people, but I leave home at ~8:30 AM. Since ~March, I have about 1.5-2 hours of sunshine by this time each day. I set up by Bolt EV to charge so that it is ready by 8:30 AM, so it pulls power only in the mornings. I can verify from the solar system monitor that about half the time, my car charges solely from my PV system. It helps that my panels are east-facing (I don't have a south-facing roof). On average, my net usage is negative, even including the EV.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 11, 2018, 02:50:24 am
Large-scale solar on roofs is a pipe dream? Southern California (where they produce *too much* power (https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-07-20/california-s-electrical-grid-can-t-handle-all-solar-energy-state-producing) at some times of the year) would beg to differ.
The article title says the grid can't handle it. That is another (universal) problem and also the main reason you will need local storage which ruins the economy of solar panels.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 11, 2018, 03:06:23 am
Large-scale solar on roofs is a pipe dream? Southern California (where they produce *too much* power (https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-07-20/california-s-electrical-grid-can-t-handle-all-solar-energy-state-producing) at some times of the year) would beg to differ.
The article title says the grid can't handle it. That is another (universal) problem and also the main reason you will need local storage which ruins the economy of solar panels.
The main problem here is the current grid design. It can't handle power going upstream through sub-stations, so you end up with islands that are trying to produce more than they consume. This is not a fundamental problem, though. It simply reflects the requirements which were in place when then current grid was developed. It can be fixed as the sub-stations are maintained.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on April 11, 2018, 03:24:05 am
Quote
The main problem here is the current grid design. It can't handle power going upstream through sub-stations,
say what ?
that's not the case.
Power can and will flow in both directions.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 11, 2018, 03:33:06 am
Large-scale solar on roofs is a pipe dream? Southern California (where they produce *too much* power (https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-07-20/california-s-electrical-grid-can-t-handle-all-solar-energy-state-producing) at some times of the year) would beg to differ.
The article title says the grid can't handle it. That is another (universal) problem and also the main reason you will need local storage which ruins the economy of solar panels.
The main problem here is the current grid design. It can't handle power going upstream through sub-stations, so you end up with islands that are trying to produce more than they consume. This is not a fundamental problem, though. It simply reflects the requirements which were in place when then current grid was developed. It can be fixed as the sub-stations are maintained.
It is not just the sub stations but also the wiring in the streets. One way or another (local storage or upgrading) it is going to be expensive and a reason why putting solar panels on roofs on a large scale isn't very economic.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 11, 2018, 03:35:13 am
Quote
The main problem here is the current grid design. It can't handle power going upstream through sub-stations,
say what ?
that's not the case.
Power can and will flow in both directions.
Of course it can flow both ways, but all the control and protection mechanisms are designed on the expectation of a one way flow.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: dr.diesel on April 11, 2018, 03:36:07 am
Quote
The main problem here is the current grid design. It can't handle power going upstream through sub-stations,
say what ?
that's not the case.
Power can and will flow in both directions.

Substations with old gen voltage regulation would likely cause issues.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 11, 2018, 05:36:05 am
Solar is only viable for the happy few with a large enough roof. In the NL that is rare. Also I'd need to buy an EV but then again on my (average) roof I can only generate half of my annual electricity usage. All in all solar panels on roofs are a pipe dream which is not going to happen on a large enough scale any time soon.

Ofcourse like solar and wind bio-fuels need lots of subsidies as well to develop the technology and create a market.

Wind is on track to become cheaper than fossil fuels. Subsidies should be going away.  One article here. (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/keep-subsidizing-wind-will-cost-wind-energy-go)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 11, 2018, 05:46:19 am
Solar in the UK, especially were I am in Northern Ireland is a bit pointless.   For half the year it's just fecking dark.  The other half of the year it's still fecking dark with overcast cloud and rain.  But... it's ALWAYS feck'in windy!

If they can master "miserably pissing it down" power it will be best bet.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 11, 2018, 06:12:51 am
Wind is on track to become cheaper than fossil fuels. Subsidies should be going away.  One article here. (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/keep-subsidizing-wind-will-cost-wind-energy-go)

That's nice, but you need the fossil fuel plants any way ... it has to be cheaper than fuel cost for a fossil fuel plant if it's going to supply a significant percentage of the power without subsidy. Has a way to go before that happens.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 11, 2018, 07:06:09 am
Wind is on track to become cheaper than fossil fuels. Subsidies should be going away.  One article here. (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/keep-subsidizing-wind-will-cost-wind-energy-go)
That's nice, but you need the fossil fuel plants any way ... it has to be cheaper than fuel cost for a fossil fuel plant if it's going to supply a significant percentage of the power without subsidy. Has a way to go before that happens.
True but recently some contracts got signed to built a  large wind farm in the Dutch part of the North sea which doesn't need to be subsidized. Well, allmost. The Dutch government is going to put the power grid in place and did all the research (depth, soil stability, etc) and gave that away so the contractors don't have to do the research for themselves before making a bid.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on April 11, 2018, 08:46:32 am
If they can master "miserably pissing it down" power it will be best bet.
It´s called hydroelectric generator :-)
In the big scale of things, even wind and hydro are solar :-).

Quote
It is not just the sub stations but also the wiring in the streets. One way or another (local storage or upgrading) it is going to be expensive and a reason why putting solar panels on roofs on a large scale isn't very economic.
The wiring in the streets is dimensioned for the power that the home´s distribution box is dimensioned for and i talk about the fuses or breakers. So as long as you are not running extreme loads all concurrently there usually is a lot of unused margin included. To estimate the ballpark check which value the main breaker/fuse the home has.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 11, 2018, 10:13:57 am
Wind is on track to become cheaper than fossil fuels. Subsidies should be going away.  One article here. (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/keep-subsidizing-wind-will-cost-wind-energy-go)

That's nice, but you need the fossil fuel plants any way ... it has to be cheaper than fuel cost for a fossil fuel plant if it's going to supply a significant percentage of the power without subsidy. Has a way to go before that happens.

Did you read the article?  It's on track to do just that. Also, there is a lot of active research on storage. Until storage is mainstream there will be a need for generators, probably carbon fuel based, as backup. But the more power generation we can shift to solar or wind, the better. Interestingly, some places have deliberately chosen to pay higher energy costs to ensure green energy generation. Germany and California are two major examples.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 11, 2018, 10:37:33 am
Fuel cost for a coal plant is currently 2.5 cents US$ (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_04.html) (newer plants probably less). So as I said, ways to go.

I suspect PV will be there quicker. Has to come from further, but I think there is just more room to drive it down.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 11, 2018, 10:46:04 am
Certainly fossil fuel plants are not going away any time soon, but it's very possible that the cost will rise substantially at some point, certainly the current glut of natural gas cannot last forever. Best to be prepared with alternate technologies ahead of time rather than get caught with our pants down when another energy crisis occurs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 11, 2018, 01:56:32 pm
Fuel cost for a coal plant is currently 2.5 cents US$ (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_04.html) (newer plants probably less). So as I said, ways to go.

I suspect PV will be there quicker. Has to come from further, but I think there is just more room to drive it down.
Fuel cost is just a part of the cost.  "Fuel" cost for wind power is 0 but I hope you would agree it ain't free.  Life time cost of generation is a far better metric (called LCOE for levelized cost of electricty). Wikipedia has a decent section on generation costs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#United_States) (which are general given in $/MWHr).

You will see in the chart that geothermal generation is the cheapest. Onshore wind is the second cheapest.  Most expensive?  Coal. and it's not close. Also, you should note the steep drop of wind power costs in the historical summary of projections.  And finally, it appears that the industry expects combined cycle NG and wind power to be almost exactly the same LCOE cost by 2022.

So, wind with CCNG looks like a real winner. At least for the US which has plentiful supplies of NG.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 11, 2018, 03:33:57 pm
Fuel cost for a coal plant is currently 2.5 cents US$ (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_04.html) (newer plants probably less). So as I said, ways to go.

So.... what's the "fuel cost" for wind and solar?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 11, 2018, 03:42:24 pm
Large-scale solar on roofs is a pipe dream? Southern California (where they produce *too much* power (https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-07-20/california-s-electrical-grid-can-t-handle-all-solar-energy-state-producing) at some times of the year) would beg to differ.
The article title says the grid can't handle it. That is another (universal) problem and also the main reason you will need local storage which ruins the economy of solar panels.
There you go again. Take one edge case, state that it doesn't work (including words like 'universal problem' - citation needed, btw), and therefore the general idea is bad/wrong/impractical. Your premise that rooftop solar on a large scale is fictional isn't true - there are plenty of examples of large scale deployments, and I linked to one. Sure, they might make too much power a couple of days a year, but so what? Doesn't mean they don't exist.

You will see in the chart that geothermal generation is the cheapest. Onshore wind is the second cheapest.  Most expensive?  Coal. and it's not close. Also, you should note the steep drop of wind power costs in the historical summary of projections.  And finally, it appears that the industry expects combined cycle NG and wind power to be almost exactly the same LCOE cost by 2022.
The coal costs include sequestration. LCOE for solar PV would depend on geographical location, since energy production is in the denominator. I'm assuming the DoE numbers were averaged over the entire US. This would mean the south west would have a lower regional LCOE than average. This paper (https://qspace.library.queensu.ca/handle/1974/6879) includes a table of LCOE vs install location, and seems to show lower costs for AZ and NV.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 11, 2018, 04:05:45 pm
It will be intesting to see if Tesla and Toyota can break the laws of physics.

https://youtu.be/k6GeHnMwl1c
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 11, 2018, 05:51:25 pm
It will be intesting to see if Tesla and Toyota can break the laws of physics.

You mean all those cars out there are breaking laws of physics? Wow! Tesla is even smarter then I thought.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on April 11, 2018, 06:18:59 pm
Let's break the law of physics with electric cars.
Cool.

On another note:
well to wheel chain efficiency of fossils in a conventional ICE is close to 11%, very low.
The same well to wheel chain efficiency with an electric powertrain and an oil burning electric station is in the range of 27%. (Of course, using partly renewables, this improves a lot already today, and will go up in the future)

Why is that ? because ICE in cars run at a very low average efficiency because they are subject to a non-optimal ever changing load.
A turbine generator in an electric station on the other end is always running at peak efficiency. It's also more efficient due to it's bigger power rating, and non space constraints.

So yeah. We don't need to brake the law of physics to make cars better. Thermodynamics are already on our side :)
Economics have leveled of between ICE and BEV already.

Also, Cadogan is just full of BS on this one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 11, 2018, 06:48:31 pm
Also, Cadogan is just full of BS on this one.

Care to explain why you say Cadogan is full of BS on this one?

He explains the physics and the math for his BS, can you point out where hs is wrong or full of BS?
Or are you a Tesla Cult follower?

https://youtu.be/LlvYv1SJJEY


https://youtu.be/k6GeHnMwl1c

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 11, 2018, 06:53:40 pm
well to wheel chain efficiency of fossils in a conventional ICE is close to 11%, very low.
The same well to wheel chain efficiency with an electric powertrain and an oil burning electric station is in the range of 27%. (Of course, using partly renewables, this improves a lot already today, and will go up in the future)

I expect there is some cherry picking going on there.  Say taking an American V8 gas guzzler as the example of the ICE and a bleeding edge, completely impractical new tech EV for the EV sample.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 11, 2018, 09:13:39 pm
Ever done the calculation to see home much gas a V8 with dual quad cabarators consumes with the pedal to the metal?  1 gallon every 42 seconds.

When crude oill was first being refined over 100 years ago there was no use for gasoline so it was just poured into local streams by the barrel.

The car industry just over 100 years ago was in a 3 way race to see what kind of technology customers would buy.  Would it be electric, ICE or ECE?
Women liked electric,  Quite, no fumes.  Electric cars and truck had the same limitation then as they due today, limited range due to battery technology. 

ECE or External combustion engines lost out.  In order to take a drive, the driver would have to start the fire to generate the steam about 30 minutes before wanting to leave.

ICE is what consumers wanted and what one out.  Gas is energy dense.  One could drive several hundred miles on a tank of gas about the size of a suitcase.  And refueling was easy.  Just a quick trip to the local drug store to get another tank of that very inexpensive gasoline.  And remember after World War II less than half of the homes in America had electricty.

The problems electric cars had 100 years ago are the same ones we are experiencing today.  Or in 100 years of technological advances the same laws of physics still apply.

Now before folks start bashing me, I own an electric hybrid plugin car and am very pleased.  I will never buy another gasoline only powered car again.

The Tesla engineers are even buying electric hybrid plugin cars instead of the cars they are designing.  Why?  Lake Tahoe is about 20 miles beyond the range of a Tesla.  Only way they can get there is to get a charge along the way,  And I’ve seen 14 cars lined up waiting for a charge or use a electric hybrid plugin.  One of the last major snow storms in Tahoe knocked out power for 4 days,  Everyone who had an electric car was left stranded.

When will electric cars become mainstream?  When the laws do physics and thermodynamics change.

Electric cars are great.  But they sure have limitations,   
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 11, 2018, 11:29:40 pm
It gets confusing when you 'merkins keep calling it gas, when we have cars that actually run on gas, like Liquid Petroleum gas (LPG), Hydrogen gas, methane/natural gas etc.

Petroleum or Petrol makes it quite a bit clearer.

On efficient engines.  They don't have to be super slow and boring.  My car on the "highway" can get 42mpg (British gallon), but on a race track I averaged 5.4 mpg.  So that was about one gallon every 3 laps, or 1 gallon ever 5 minutes.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 11, 2018, 11:41:31 pm
Fuel cost is just a part of the cost.

The fossil fuel plants are present any way, wind and solar just save fuel. For the moment there is distortion because of subsidies and special value signaling contracts, but on a large scale without subsidy fuel cost is the relevant cost for break even. As for gas, it's much harder to stockpile than coal. A coal based backup is more robust.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 11, 2018, 11:52:35 pm
When will electric cars become mainstream?  When the laws do physics and thermodynamics change.

Batteries have a long way to go yet. There are batteries in laboratories with nearly three times the energy density of gasoline:

https://phys.org/news/2013-09-molten-air-battery-storage-capacity-highest.html

Electric cars are great.  But they sure have limitations,   

Today's electric cars are great.  But today's electric cars sure have limitations.

FTFY.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 12, 2018, 12:53:47 am
https://phys.org/news/2013-09-molten-air-battery-storage-capacity-highest.html

Seems way too complex to me, air such a nasty poisonous medium to work with ... I don't see high cycle counts in the future of these batteries.

Mechanically recharging Zinc-Air seems more promising to me, not quite the energy density of Aluminum but Zinc-oxide is easier to reduce back to Zinc. With large batch processing purifying the Zinc is easy, so all the contaminants from the air won't pile up like in a rechargeable air battery.

PS. on second thought, maybe hybrids would make most sense ... replacing the anodes and electrolyte every 100 cycles or so.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 12, 2018, 05:10:24 am
When will electric cars become mainstream?  When the laws do physics and thermodynamics change.

Batteries have a long way to go yet. There are batteries in laboratories with nearly three times the energy density of gasoline:

https://phys.org/news/2013-09-molten-air-battery-storage-capacity-highest.html

Electric cars are great.  But they sure have limitations,   

Today's electric cars are great.  But today's electric cars sure have limitations.

FTFY.

Compare the energy density to that of Nuclear fuel.  Not even close. 

The world will have another 2 billion people, batteries are just a storage medium, where's the energy going to come for to charge the battereis?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 12, 2018, 05:41:09 am
The world will have another 2 billion people, batteries are just a storage medium, where's the energy going to come for to charge the battereis?

The US has more than enough deserts for PV to supply it's energy needs. Europe not so much of course. For HVDC the world is a small place ... but the geopolitical implications of dependency are annoying, as they are now with our dependence on Russia.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 12, 2018, 08:25:22 am
The Tesla engineers are even buying electric hybrid plugin cars instead of the cars they are designing.  Why?  Lake Tahoe is about 20 miles beyond the range of a Tesla.  Only way they can get there is to get a charge along the way,  And I’ve seen 14 cars lined up waiting for a charge or use a electric hybrid plugin.  One of the last major snow storms in Tahoe knocked out power for 4 days,  Everyone who had an electric car was left stranded.

Way to use anecdotes to prove a point. Yes, Tahoe is farther than the range of any Tesla on a single charge. Note on the supercharger map that there are SCs along the way. In fact, they were put there specifically to make Tahoe easily reachable from the Bay Area.  So, these "tesla engineers" aren't using teslas because they might have to charge en route? Yeah, that sounds plausible.  And  how many times a year does a major storm broadly knock out power for 4 days?  And also not cripple everything else?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 12, 2018, 08:35:34 am
The world will have another 2 billion people, batteries are just a storage medium, where's the energy going to come for to charge the battereis?

The US has more than enough deserts for PV to supply it's energy needs. Europe not so much of course. For HVDC the world is a small place ... but the geopolitical implications of dependency are annoying, as they are now with our dependence on Russia.
Out of curiosity, how much area do all the rooftops in Europe take up? How much area for the parking lots?  I read that in rough numbers, 1 hectare of solar panels can generate 1 MW at peak.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on April 12, 2018, 04:48:21 pm
Got the VIN number of my new electric car today, it's getting real. 
Now it just needs to be shipped from Halifax to Vancouver.  Apparently it'll be ready for pick up in 4 weeks or so ! WOOOOT
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 12, 2018, 08:03:02 pm
The Tesla engineers are even buying electric hybrid plugin cars instead of the cars they are designing.  Why?  Lake Tahoe is about 20 miles beyond the range of a Tesla.  Only way they can get there is to get a charge along the way,  And I’ve seen 14 cars lined up waiting for a charge or use a electric hybrid plugin.  One of the last major snow storms in Tahoe knocked out power for 4 days,  Everyone who had an electric car was left stranded.

Way to use anecdotes to prove a point. Yes, Tahoe is farther than the range of any Tesla on a single charge. Note on the supercharger map that there are SCs along the way. In fact, they were put there specifically to make Tahoe easily reachable from the Bay Area.  So, these "tesla engineers" aren't using teslas because they might have to charge en route? Yeah, that sounds plausible.  And  how many times a year does a major storm broadly knock out power for 4 days?  And also not cripple everything else?

How many cars can a super charger charge at a given time?  If fourteen cars are all lined up to be charge how long does the person in the fourteenth car have to wait to get a charge?  And super chargers don’t give you a full charge so even when they get a charge their mileage is limited.
.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 13, 2018, 03:57:16 am
Out of curiosity, how much area do all the rooftops in Europe take up? How much area for the parking lots?
Not enough. Parking lots are also rare. Usually parking garages are underground or at least multi-story buildings with a small footprint. Land is really scarse especially in the west part of Europe where most of the industry is.

As written before: solar panels need storage and infrastructure to carry the electricity to the place where it is needed. During the day electricity is in demand by heavy industry. Try to bring a feed from a residential area with solar panels towards a steel mill... Together with storage it will be terribly expensive. If you have 1000 households and a sunny day the electricity grid for that area will need to be able to handle the situation where everyone turns the washing machine and vacuum cleaner on at the same time. Local grids are not designed for such situations because they never occured before. And they are designed that way to reduce costs. Putting solar panels on roofs in residential areas is a pipe dream. It is way too expensive if you add everything up because you can't avoid upgrading the grid and/or using local storage. For kicks look at the pricing of Tesla's wall battery. There is no break even point if you add that to the cost of your solar panel setup.

It is a much better idea to place solar panels together with large wind turbines somewhere on unused land or out in the sea. That way you can transport the electricity over a few lines and feed it into the backbone of the mains grid directly. Also maintenance will be easier because the installation is more uniform.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: bicycleguy on April 13, 2018, 06:14:34 am
I love to see all this negativity about electric cars. 

I drive a 2014 Chevy Spark.  It has the same 103 mile range on a hot day it did when new.  I got it new for $19k in 2015 because nobody wants them.  (the Chevy dealer doesn't even have 240V charging capability ! )  Then got a $7.5k fed tax rebate and a $2.5k state tax rebate, so $9k invested.

The car is ridiculously ( ludicrously ! ) fast.  Have yet to loose a 0 - speed limit dash.  By the time ICE luddites with potentially faster cars realize they really have to go balls to the walls with foot and rpm and noise, I'm already quietly slowing down regenerating on the way.

The dealer is constantly trying to get me to come in for maintenance.  When I ask them for what they can't come up with anything!  I still own an ICE car but keep forgetting the whole filling station routine and keep asking myself why am I changing this oil and doing this maintenance.

I plan trips around fast charging stations.  Still amazes me to plug in car, pick up 80 miles range in 15 minutes, barely enough time for coffee and can.  Other than long trips all charging will be from my roof top solar, as soon as I finish it.

But the luddites are starting to see the light.  Soon the fast charging stations will be clogged with EVs lugging oversize batteries so they can quell their range anxiety.  Wonder when an electron hog F150EV 4X4 will start blocking my view.

This is the golden age of the EV, better enjoy it before its over.

Edited car name duh
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 13, 2018, 07:03:30 am
I drive a 2014 Chevy Volt.  It has the same 103 mile range on a hot day it did when new.
How do you get such a high range? It seems to be twice what Chevrolet claim. I only know people with the first generation Volt, and they seem to get the sort of range Chevrolet claim, which is about 30 miles. I understand the second generation is supposed to give about 50 miles.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: bicycleguy on April 13, 2018, 07:41:32 am
I drive a 2014 Chevy Volt.  It has the same 103 mile range on a hot day it did when new.
How do you get such a high range? It seems to be twice what Chevrolet claim. I only know people with the first generation Volt, and they seem to get the sort of range Chevrolet claim, which is about 30 miles. I understand the second generation is supposed to give about 50 miles.
Wow, that was stupid of me.  I laugh when others can't keep the silly Chevy names straight ie: Spark, Volt, Bolt but I did it myself |O.  I'll edit the post.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 13, 2018, 07:51:05 am
I drive a 2014 Chevy Volt.  It has the same 103 mile range on a hot day it did when new.
How do you get such a high range? It seems to be twice what Chevrolet claim. I only know people with the first generation Volt, and they seem to get the sort of range Chevrolet claim, which is about 30 miles. I understand the second generation is supposed to give about 50 miles.
Wow, that was stupid of me.  I laugh when others can't keep the silly Chevy names straight ie: Spark, Volt, Bolt but I did it myself |O.  I'll edit the post.

Yeah - I noticed that and suspected you meant the Spark.  FWIW, my gen 1 Volt gets 30-40 miles per charge. Warm days it's higher. My usual daily commute is 12 mi round trip so I rarely need to burn gas.  It's 6 miles down hill and 6 miles uphill (2000 feet elevation gain) to get back home.  In almost 4 years I've burned less than 100 gallons.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 13, 2018, 07:57:14 am
It gets confusing when you 'merkins keep calling it gas, when we have cars that actually run on gas, like Liquid Petroleum gas (LPG), Hydrogen gas, methane/natural gas etc.

Petroleum or Petrol makes it quite a bit clearer.

On efficient engines.  They don't have to be super slow and boring.  My car on the "highway" can get 42mpg (British gallon), but on a race track I averaged 5.4 mpg.  So that was about one gallon every 3 laps, or 1 gallon ever 5 minutes.

We have those too, LNG or Propane, both are mostly used for fleet vehicles like garbage trucks and school buses but I've seen a few private cars that had been converted to propane. Gas is short for Gasoline, I don't know why there are multple names for the stuff but it's not too hard to remember that gas = petrol and what you call "gas" is either propane or LNG (liquified methane).

Also not everyone in the US rolls around with a huge thirsty V8, I'd say 4 cylinder and V6 are the two most common engine configurations you see around. Fullsized trucks and really big SUVs are mostly V8 but they're not nearly as dominant as they were in the prior to the 80s. Personally I've always had 4 cylinder cars, mostly turbocharged.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 13, 2018, 08:53:49 am
How many cars can a super charger charge at a given time?  If fourteen cars are all lined up to be charge how long does the person in the fourteenth car have to wait to get a charge?  And super chargers don’t give you a full charge so even when they get a charge their mileage is limited.

Clearly some misunderstanding going on.

Here's how SCs work. Each site has a set of chargers. Depending on the model, a charger can range from 90 KW to 132 KW. Each charger  has a number and can feed 2 cars (lettered A and B).  The second car to hook up get's what ever is left over from the first one.  The actual charge rate for a car depends on the state of the battery. A fully discharged battery gets almost 100% of the available rate and it starts to drop from there with the largest drop coming from about half charged to full. Not sure what the terminal rate is but I thinnk it's less than 10KW. The second car gets the left overs. However, in practice, no one has a fully discharged battery and no one actually charges to 100%.  Typically people charge to the point where they can get to the next SC or their destination. So, even the second car on a charger seldom gets nothing and it's often pretty high. There is quite frequent turn over at SCs. If the occupancy is less than 50%, everyone gets the max charge rate for their battery state. The only time I've seen more than 50% was on a very busy travel day (the evening before thanksgiving, iirc). I've never had to wait for a spot to open up.  And, in the places where people have had to wait (mostly in the Bay Area and Southern CA), Tesla has been very proactive in building out more capacity and new SCs in the general area.

I'm not sure what you mean by "don't give you a full charge".  If you want, you can get a full charge but that last 1/8 takes about 20 minutes because off the drop off (this is to protect the battery).  I've actually done that in one case 3 years ago where I needed a return charge. Though, it's quite unnecessary for the vast number of cases.  In fact, my super charger strategy when traveling is to start with an amount of charge such that when I get to the SC, I have about 10% charge left so it will recharge faster. Typically, I only need about 60% to make it to the next SC or destination though the car will tell you when you have enough.

I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 13, 2018, 09:30:35 am
I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.
That is not a different way of thinking. That is making do with a system which takes more time no matter how you try to sugar coat it for yourself. Short charge or long charge it doesn't matter because you still need to charge for the distance you drive. I already hate going to the filling station because it takes time. You only live once so don't waste your time by waiting.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 13, 2018, 10:12:58 am
I already hate going to the filling station because it takes time. You only live once so don't waste your time by waiting.

Absolutely!  That's what I love about my Volt. I plug it in at night and I'm full in the morning.  I don't think I appreciated how much I'd love not having to go to the filling station once a week to fill up.   Now I go once every 3-4 months - usually only after I've taken a long road trip. I enjoy this even more than the money I save.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 13, 2018, 10:26:46 am
That's what all the guys I know with electrics rave about too, it's so convenient, they never have to go anywhere to fill up anymore. They just plug in the car when they get home at night just like they plug in their mobile phone when they go to bed. It's super easy, assuming you're one of the many millions of people who have a living situation where this is possible, if you're not then you aren't the target market so there's no sense going on about it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 13, 2018, 10:46:50 am
I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.
That is not a different way of thinking. That is making do with a system which takes more time no matter how you try to sugar coat it for yourself. Short charge or long charge it doesn't matter because you still need to charge for the distance you drive. I already hate going to the filling station because it takes time. You only live once so don't waste your time by waiting.

Maybe you should slow down and smell the roses. I don't find charging time to be a big deal. But if it bugs you, go right ahead and keep putting CO2 and other nasty gasses into the atmosphere. Considering that I "waste" maybe an hour or two a year total on charging time, I think I'll stick to EVs. Though, I have to say, I save a lot of time not going to the gas station. 20 minutes to gas up vs 20 seconds of my time to charge at home overnight, I suspect I actually spend less time than you do.

And before you give the apartment dweller argument, most SC are near shopping areas so charging can be overlapped with shopping.

And, your comments clearly indicate that you don't understand the gas station mentality.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 13, 2018, 10:59:51 am
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 13, 2018, 11:09:49 am
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.
Charging is a serious issue for everyone on long journeys, but a daily charge for a daily commute is only a hardship if you lack your own driveway, garage or other space with a charging point. The only reasonable drawback to plugging the car in every night when you get home is the issue of forgetting, and not being able to go to work the next morning.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 13, 2018, 11:12:37 am
I charge about once a week.  10 seconds to plug in at night and 10 seconds to unplug the next morning.  Lose the filling station mind set.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 13, 2018, 11:28:18 am
Out of curiosity, how much area do all the rooftops in Europe take up? How much area for the parking lots?

For kicks look at the pricing of Tesla's wall battery. There is no break even point if you add that to the cost of your solar panel setup.


I'm not so sure you are correct.  You need to facor in the cost of the electricity?  In California where I am located the electricity can cost as much as $0.85 at times and as little as $0.12.  One doesn't even need solar pannels.  If I have a Tesla PowerWall I can chage the PW batteries at $0.12 when rates are low, and then sell the power to our power compnay when they are charging $0.85.

I would think with a 700% diffeence in the cost of buying and selling electricty the PW make a lot of financial sense.






   
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 13, 2018, 11:40:58 am
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.

Most people plug their mobile phone in each night do they not? What is so different about plugging in the car each night too? I know guys who do this, they don't seem to bothered by the extra 5 seconds before they walk into the house. It is actually something every one of them has raved about how convenient it is, they pull into the driveway at night and plug in the car, they never have to go to a gas station. It sounds absolutely great to me, it's only the fact that I absolutely love my classic Volvo that prevents me from getting an electric myself.

What part of "if you're not one of the millions of people who can plug in to charge in their driveway then this doesn't apply to you" do you not understand? I get it, an electric car probably won't work for you, why are you so fixated on this and refusing to see that for millions of people it can and in fact does work very well? It seems almost obsessive that you are insisting it flat out doesn't work and then listing reasons it doesn't work for *you* and acting as though everyone is in your situation when in fact many millions of people are not.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 13, 2018, 11:51:38 am
How many cars can a super charger charge at a given time?  If fourteen cars are all lined up to be charge how long does the person in the fourteenth car have to wait to get a charge?  And super chargers don’t give you a full charge so even when they get a charge their mileage is limited.

Clearly some misunderstanding going on.

Here's how SCs work. Each site has a set of chargers. Depending on the model, a charger can range from 90 KW to 132 KW. Each charger  has a number and can feed 2 cars (lettered A and B).  The second car to hook up get's what ever is left over from the first one.  The actual charge rate for a car depends on the state of the battery. A fully discharged battery gets almost 100% of the available rate and it starts to drop from there with the largest drop coming from about half charged to full. Not sure what the terminal rate is but I thinnk it's less than 10KW. The second car gets the left overs. However, in practice, no one has a fully discharged battery and no one actually charges to 100%.  Typically people charge to the point where they can get to the next SC or their destination. So, even the second car on a charger seldom gets nothing and it's often pretty high. There is quite frequent turn over at SCs. If the occupancy is less than 50%, everyone gets the max charge rate for their battery state. The only time I've seen more than 50% was on a very busy travel day (the evening before thanksgiving, iirc). I've never had to wait for a spot to open up.  And, in the places where people have had to wait (mostly in the Bay Area and Southern CA), Tesla has been very proactive in building out more capacity and new SCs in the general area.

I'm not sure what you mean by "don't give you a full charge".  If you want, you can get a full charge but that last 1/8 takes about 20 minutes because off the drop off (this is to protect the battery).  I've actually done that in one case 3 years ago where I needed a return charge. Though, it's quite unnecessary for the vast number of cases.  In fact, my super charger strategy when traveling is to start with an amount of charge such that when I get to the SC, I have about 10% charge left so it will recharge faster. Typically, I only need about 60% to make it to the next SC or destination though the car will tell you when you have enough.

I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.

This is a very intersting converstation, it goes to show you how everyones experiance with a plugin electric car is different.
The drive from LA to SF takes an additional 2 hours in a Tesla.
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/fastest-trip-la-sf (https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/fastest-trip-la-sf)

And driving a Tesla to Tahoe once you leave the Sacramento area where are the Super Chargers?  And just how many of them are in Tahoe?
Lake Tahoe South Shore gets first Tesla Superchargers as region prepares for more electric vehicles
https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/local/lake-tahoe-south-shore-gets-first-tesla-supercharger-as-region-prepares-for-more-electric-vehicles/ (https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/local/lake-tahoe-south-shore-gets-first-tesla-supercharger-as-region-prepares-for-more-electric-vehicles/)

In the region there are only a handful of public Tesla Superchargers. There is one in Reno with a second in the works, two in Truckee with another on the way, one in Topaz Lake and now one in Stateline. Last year a universal DC Fast Charger was installed in the Heavenly Village Park.

Can you make it from Seattle to Lake Chelan witout having to stop for a charge along the way?  Then one in Chelan are there any SC stations?  How would you make this trip?

I looked at a Tesla and purcashed a Volt instead.  As Teslas are watining in line to get charged.  The trip for us to LA is same as for ICE.  No 2 hour for usto get a charge.















Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 13, 2018, 12:06:07 pm
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.

Most people plug their mobile phone in each night do they not? What is so different about plugging in the car each night too? I know guys who do this, they don't seem to bothered by the extra 5 seconds before they walk into the house. It is actually something every one of them has raved about how convenient it is, they pull into the driveway at night and plug in the car, they never have to go to a gas station. It sounds absolutely great to me, it's only the fact that I absolutely love my classic Volvo that prevents me from getting an electric myself.

What part of "if you're not one of the millions of people who can plug in to charge in their driveway then this doesn't apply to you" do you not understand? I get it, an electric car probably won't work for you, why are you so fixated on this and refusing to see that for millions of people it can and in fact does work very well? It seems almost obsessive that you are insisting it flat out doesn't work and then listing reasons it doesn't work for *you* and acting as though everyone is in your situation when in fact many millions of people are not.

Well said.  Does it even take 5 seconds to plug it in?  Takes me longer to get out of the car.
I was one of those people who wasn't too thrilled when my wife wanted an electric car.  We looked at the Tesla and BMW and quickly realized they weren't for us.  One could get stranded quite easily.  Then we looked at the Volt.  Ugggg, a Chevy.  I was not thrilled.  I remember the days of the cheap fall apart America cars like the Vega.  We purchased one.  Am I eating crow.  Not only has the Chevy Volt turned out (so far) to be a good quality car, the software and apps are well designed.  Hate to admit it, but I would by another.  And as for driving the car electric cars are amazing and a lot of fun to drive compared to ICE.

Once you drive an electric you never want to drive an ICE again.

And if you car abount money it cost about $3.50 to charge the car based on our power compnaies evening rates.  When driving on battery power it costs us about $0.05 per mile.  Based on today's gas prices that's a bit more than half the cost of an ICE per mile.



 



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 13, 2018, 06:34:21 pm
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.
What part of "if you're not one of the millions of people who can plug in to charge in their driveway then this doesn't apply to you" do you not understand?
What you (and several others) seem to be missing is that an EV isn't a 'solution' which scales well for charging at home. If many more households have an EV which they let charge overnight the electricity grid would get overloaded. For now with EVs in the single digit percentages it doesn't matter much but at some point it will. Ofcourse there will be exceptions like in countries where the rural areas already have heavier electricity connections for heating (Norway is probably an example). My point is: that an EV is suitable for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone out of the box.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 13, 2018, 08:13:49 pm
Quote
If many more households have an EV which they let charge overnight the electricity grid would get overloaded.

I read such a quote several times in this thread, and this is BS.
If we switch to EVs this would add between 10% (UK) and 15% (Germany) to the electricity demand.
For 1 million cars it would add ~0,35% and for 45 million cars ~15% in Germany.
In the same time the overall demand is also rising based on growth of population. There is always the need for more electricity, and EVs are just a part of it.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-switch-to-electric-vehicles-would-add-just-10-per-cent-to-uk-power-demand (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-switch-to-electric-vehicles-would-add-just-10-per-cent-to-uk-power-demand)
Its interesting that you quote an article which explains why it is not BS. Although the average UK electricity consumption may not massively increase, the wiring in the average street was not built for everyone in the street coming home in the early evening, and plugging in an additional 6kW load at around the same time. Either higher rated cables are needed, or a legally enforced system of controlled charging times, to spread the peak load. Bigger cable would be massively expensive. Controlled charging times are probably OK for the average commuter, but could be a serious problem for someone with unusual hours.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 13, 2018, 09:27:31 pm
I read such a quote several times in this thread, and this is BS.
If we switch to EVs this would add between 10% (UK) and 15% (Germany) to the electricity demand.
For 1 million cars it would add ~0,35% and for 45 million cars ~15% in Germany.
In the same time the overall demand is also rising based on growth of population. There is always the need for more electricity, and EVs are just a part of it.

It is not BS, but misunderstanding. Problem is not increased average consumption in kW/h.
Problem is in maximum installed peak power of distribution network.
In Croatia, average household distribution connection is specified for 6 kVA of continuous power. If you need more, no problem, but you have to pay additionally for privilege of being able to pull more peak power on demand. You pay that in addition to all the kW/h you spend.
Rationale behind it is that 10 households time 6 kVA in a street can be served with a small inexpensive 60kVA transformer. If all of them want to charge a car at night , and need 20 kVA of power for 8 hours, you need much larger 200kVA transformer in local substation. And then every larger transformers feeding those small ones has to be upgraded to larger capacity. And on and on.

In Croatia, if every household would have one EV, peak power of national grid would have to be substantially upgraded (80-100 %), although average electricity consumption would go up 20-25%.
All of that is far from show stopper, and would be solved with technologically quite traditional upgrade...

But that has to be said, and it is something that has to be done before EV can be mainstream.....
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 13, 2018, 11:00:57 pm
Your number is to high, we charge our car with 3.6kW (4.5 kVA). Usually every third night. Usually for 3-4 hours.

That is in ballpark of  60-100 km per day ?

As I said before, it is not impossible. Quite the opposite, it is entirely technically practical. But needs to be  done before calling something mainstream.

Also, I live in a city. I park on the street with hundreds of other cars. Infrastructure has to be built. Very expensive infrastructure..

Mainstreaming EV's is not a technical problem but a logistic one. It is a major multilevel project nobody wants to own. 

Regards,
Sinisa
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 13, 2018, 11:16:24 pm
Maybe they could make drive-through charging stations:

https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/roads-that-charge-cars-as-you-drive-along-them/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/roads-that-charge-cars-as-you-drive-along-them/)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 14, 2018, 12:11:06 am
Maybe they could make drive-through charging stations:

Maybe this is a good charging solution for a bus on a circular route, or something like this. You can equip several streets your vehicle fleet uses frequently and you can run them 24/7.

The UK already has buses that recharge at special stops at each end of the route:

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25621426 (http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25621426)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 14, 2018, 02:50:07 am

This is a very intersting converstation, it goes to show you how everyones experiance with a plugin electric car is different.
The drive from LA to SF takes an additional 2 hours in a Tesla.
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/fastest-trip-la-sf (https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/fastest-trip-la-sf)

And driving a Tesla to Tahoe once you leave the Sacramento area where are the Super Chargers?  And just how many of them are in Tahoe?
Lake Tahoe South Shore gets first Tesla Superchargers as region prepares for more electric vehicles
https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/local/lake-tahoe-south-shore-gets-first-tesla-supercharger-as-region-prepares-for-more-electric-vehicles/ (https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/local/lake-tahoe-south-shore-gets-first-tesla-supercharger-as-region-prepares-for-more-electric-vehicles/)

In the region there are only a handful of public Tesla Superchargers. There is one in Reno with a second in the works, two in Truckee with another on the way, one in Topaz Lake and now one in Stateline. Last year a universal DC Fast Charger was installed in the Heavenly Village Park.

Can you make it from Seattle to Lake Chelan witout having to stop for a charge along the way?  Then one in Chelan are there any SC stations?  How would you make this trip?

I looked at a Tesla and purcashed a Volt instead.  As Teslas are watining in line to get charged.  The trip for us to LA is same as for ICE.  No 2 hour for usto get a charge.

Well, for starters, you cite 4 year old experiences for the LA to SF drive. A LOT of SCs have been added since then and the new ones are 120KW minimum (as opposed to 90KW). Check out this map (https://supercharge.info/) for the current supercharger locations.

When some one goes to Tahoe, it's usually a destination. With destination charging, L2 is fine. It looks like lots of hotels have chargers, just pick one that gives you an overnight charge. The SCs around tahoe are big ones, Stateline has 14 stations, there are 14 stations between the two Truckee ones. There are a number of ChaDeMo chargers which Teslas can use. And various casinos and ski areas have chargers. I wouldn't hesitate to make that trip in my Tesla.  https://www.plugshare.com/ (https://www.plugshare.com/) for more info.

My house in Seattle to Chelan is 171 miles - no charging stop needed. No SCs at Chelan but there are a number of chargers L2 and HAL2. As a destination, that works for me as I can charge while doing other things (dining, sleeping,...). Most nice hotels have chargers.  There are a number of SCs planned for that area - Wenatchee, Omak though Telsa is pretty good about missing "approximate schedules".  I have confidence they will get there eventually. There are a number of 50KW ChaDeMo chargers on the route that I can use, one in Leavenworth which is about 1/2 way for those that don't have enough charge. Not as good as an SC but still pretty fast. Plus Leavenworth is a fun place to stop, anyway. We often do it regardless of how much charge we have.

In a few weeks we're going to Walla Walla for wine tasting weekend. Two SCs (eburg, kennewick) and the hotel has a charger. Total delay over driving straight through is about 40 minutes. But then, no one drives straight through - bathroom, food, coffee. The EV does take longer but not hours. We could do the trip with one stop but 2 stops at lower charge levels make it go faster.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 03:38:43 am
Quote
If many more households have an EV which they let charge overnight the electricity grid would get overloaded.
I read such a quote several times in this thread, and this is BS.
If we switch to EVs this would add between 10% (UK) and 15% (Germany) to the electricity demand.
You don't understand. It is not about consumption but it is about distribution! The distribution network at the street level needs to be able to cope with charging EVs (and the same problem applies to solar panels).

This graph shows that households are not the primary users of electricity so this should give you an indication on how the distribution grid has been designed:
(https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/final-electricity-consumption-by-sector-4/image_xlarge)

Also your numbers are wrong. If I simply multiply the km driven by cars in the NL (118 trillion) and the required kWh per km (250Wh):  118.5G * 0.250=29GWh) then in the NL it will take an additional 25% (29GWh/120GWh=25%) of elecricity generating capacity to switch to EVs. This means that the capacity of the local distribution grids will need to be almost doubled to deliver that additional 25% if people charge their EVs at home. The same goes (worse) in reverse for putting solar panels on roofs.

Edit: I read the article you quoted and the articles it linked to but how they get to only 10% extra demand is conveniently left out even though it is a crucial number to determine the validity of their claims. The ease with which I can debunk it makes me think it has been pulled out of a dark place. The graphs showing the massive multi-billion Pounds investments into charging infrastructure speak for themselve though. It makes me doubt EVs will ever become mainstream. Interesting for the happy few who can charge them from their own solar panels and/or wind turbines but it is going to be expensive for everyone else.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 07:45:51 am
If I simply multiply the km driven by cars in the NL (118 trillion) and the required kWh per km (250Wh):  118.5G * 0.250=29GWh) then in the NL it will take an additional 25% (29GWh/120GWh=25%) of elecricity generating capacity to switch to EVs. This means that the capacity of the local distribution grids will need to be almost doubled to deliver that additional 25% if people charge their EVs at home.

And again the same assumption: Over night all cars are replaced by EVs and the grid needs to be doubled.  :scared:

We are split what the exact numbers are, but whats the point? The grid needs to be developed? Sure! We need more electricity? Sure! We pay the companies for this development? Sure! They will handle this. It's a normal day-to-day process to develop, maintain and upgrade the infrastructure around us.

The amount of EVs will grow over the next decades and also the grid will be delevoped in the same time. The world will continue to turn. Everything will be fine, don't worry!
You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 14, 2018, 07:49:24 am
When smartmeters were installed in California the tech companies like Cisco thought the could make a bundle with new power company related smartgrid networking.

In theory Cisco was correct and they had the potential to make billions.  But then the questions is who is going to pay fo the billions to upgrade the grid.  Cisco researchers cost estimates found it would be cost to replace existing grid plus and other 50%.  Why the other 50%?  Becausee the power companies have spares of evertyghing for when devices fail.  Upgrading the grid means throwing away the brand new spares plus all of the existing grid equipment.

At the time no one sees the value in upgrading the grid or paying for it.  Cisco estimates it will be over 100 years to upgrade the gird just in California.

It’s one of those things...  If it’s not broken, no one wants to pay to replace what’s working with something that will, to them, work just the same.


 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 14, 2018, 08:42:46 am

You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Well, I certainly see the "overloaded grid" arguments using the loads from full deployment of EVs. The system will get upgraded based on demand - happens all the time.  Also, peak consumption, at least in North America, is mid-day so there is capacity to spare in the evenings when most EVs would be charged. In fact, a lot of utilities have lower night rates to encourage consumption at off-peak times. I'm not sure how close to over-capacity the grid really is.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 10:06:16 am

You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Well, I certainly see the "overloaded grid" arguments using the loads from full deployment of EVs. The system will get upgraded based on demand - happens all the time.  Also, peak consumption, at least in North America, is mid-day so there is capacity to spare in the evenings when most EVs would be charged. In fact, a lot of utilities have lower night rates to encourage consumption at off-peak times. I'm not sure how close to over-capacity the grid really is.
Peak consumption during the day is due to the companies being active. During the day usage from residential areas is low anyway because most people are at work. But don't take my word for it: https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers (https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers)
I hope it is clear that charging the EVs when people come back home from work is not a good idea because that overlaps with peak demand in residential areas.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 14, 2018, 10:26:40 am

You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Well, I certainly see the "overloaded grid" arguments using the loads from full deployment of EVs. The system will get upgraded based on demand - happens all the time.  Also, peak consumption, at least in North America, is mid-day so there is capacity to spare in the evenings when most EVs would be charged. In fact, a lot of utilities have lower night rates to encourage consumption at off-peak times. I'm not sure how close to over-capacity the grid really is.
Peak consumption during the day is due to the companies being active. During the day usage from residential areas is low anyway because most people are at work. But don't take my word for it: https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers (https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers)
I hope it is clear that charging the EVs when people come back home from work is not a good idea because that overlaps with peak demand in residential areas.

That's not really correct. You've ignored the fact that daytime air conditioning in the many very hot parts of the US is the largest load.  In other parts of the US or in the same areas but during winter, electric heating is the largest load.

Lighting in the evenings is a relatively smaller load and overnight it is not a factor.

Part of the confusion may be that the diversity of climate in the USA is much greater than your location.

As pointed out previously - many locales have electricity rate structures that encourage conservation during high demand hours - daytime and early evenings.

One of the features of most EVs is the ability to program your charging so that it is only done during low demand times - such as late night or early AM.

The upshot is that overnight charging at home really does make perfect sense.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 14, 2018, 01:06:23 pm
It's becoming obvious that this debate is futile. The naysayers argue from a purely emotional level, a belief not much different than a religious belief that something won't work or can't work, and no amount of logic or evidence that it does work or is working will ever convince them. No matter how many times I point out that something works perfectly well for a large number of people they will grasp at straws and dig up edge cases to deflect.

It's just a fact that EVs are here, people are driving them, they're plugging them in each night exactly as they plug in their phones. The sky is not falling, the grid is not collapsing, it's already present reality, not some kind of hypothetical sci-fi future. I suspect of the people for whom a current tech EV is a perfect fit for their lifestyle, we are at probably 5-10% market penetration. There is a LOT of room for growth before we even worry about strange edge cases like single car households with only street parking where they take a 3,000 mile road trip every 2 weeks and cannot rent a car because the trillions of other people wanting to take a road trip that same week have rented them all. That's just silly, it flat out doesn't happen.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 14, 2018, 01:14:55 pm
Around 3/4 of the cars near me are street parked, it's not an outlier here in the Netherlands.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 14, 2018, 04:37:09 pm
Around 3/4 of the cars near me are street parked, it's not an outlier here in the Netherlands.

Then it doesn't apply to you or 3/4 of the people around you, so what? I'm sure you realize there are hundreds of millions of people for whom that's not the case?

Have a look at my home town for example https://goo.gl/maps/egY6Fw5mqfq

How much street parking do you see? There suburbs like this all over the country. Literally millions of houses with driveways and/or garages. I'm still confused why the fact that you live in an area where this isn't the case somehow means that it can't possibly be true somewhere else.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 08:12:28 pm
Around 3/4 of the cars near me are street parked, it's not an outlier here in the Netherlands.

Then it doesn't apply to you or 3/4 of the people around you, so what? I'm sure you realize there are hundreds of millions of people for whom that's not the case?
I think you should look much further than you home town and collect some real numbers to back up your claim (IOW: do the math). Look at New York for example. And then look at Europe. There are 3 to 4 times more people living in Europe compared to the US. I'm very sure your hundreds of millions of people is grossly over estimated.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 14, 2018, 09:19:34 pm
Around 3/4 of the cars near me are street parked, it's not an outlier here in the Netherlands.

Then it doesn't apply to you or 3/4 of the people around you, so what? I'm sure you realize there are hundreds of millions of people for whom that's not the case?

Have a look at my home town for example https://goo.gl/maps/egY6Fw5mqfq (https://goo.gl/maps/egY6Fw5mqfq)

How much street parking do you see? There suburbs like this all over the country. Literally millions of houses with driveways and/or garages. I'm still confused why the fact that you live in an area where this isn't the case somehow means that it can't possibly be true somewhere else.

And this is where me and other 250000 people live...

https://www.google.com/maps/@45.3360734,14.4272461,1861m/data= (https://www.google.com/maps/@45.3360734,14.4272461,1861m/data=)!3m1!1e3

It is absolutely tiring how people from USA don't want to accept that rest of the world is different. If we (people not from USA) say something different we are immediately either stupid or don't know better..
We're not. We just live somewhere else where socioeconomic, historic, geographic and all kinds of other facts are simply different.
So we think different and live differently in different environment wanting different things...

Regards,
Sinisa
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 15, 2018, 12:42:39 am
It is absolutely tiring how people from USA don't want to accept that rest of the world is different.

Generalize much? The thread topic is about when EVs will become mainstream. Right now, they are not, but forum users who currently drive EVs decided to share their respective experiences to indicate that the many objections raised (eg: range anxiety) are largely irrelevant. I didn't see anyone other than you turn this into a USA v. the rest of the world argument. If it were, how would you explain Norway's EV ownership statistics?

Also, I lived half my life outside the US, in either a house with a garage, or an apartment with reserved parking spots. Is it common? Not to the same extent as in the suburban US, but not everyone parks on the street (when at home) either.

Go check out some user forums for EVs, there are plenty of folks who own EVs despite not having home charging facilities.


I think you should look much further than you home town and collect some real numbers to back up your claim (IOW: do the math).

I don't see you backing up any of your claims with data or references. Also:

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/units.html (https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/units.html)


Cue next moving of the goal posts in 3... 2... 1...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 12:49:26 am
It is absolutely tiring how people from USA don't want to accept that rest of the world is different.
Generalize much? The thread topic is about when EVs will become mainstream. Right now, they are not, but forum users who currently drive EVs decided to share their respective experiences to indicate that the many objections raised (eg: range anxiety) are largely irrelevant. I didn't see anyone other than you turn this into a USA v. the rest of the world argument. If it were, how would you explain Norway's EV ownership statistics?
I already wrote that Norway (and Sweden and Finland) benefit from a very low population density, almost free electricity from hydro and a high capacity electricity grid for heating. In those countries many people already have a mains outlet near their car keep it warm during the winter. However those countries (with a total of 20 million people) are nowhere near representative for the rest of Europe (742 million people). And that brings me back to my (bottom line) point: because an EV works for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone with today's infrastructure. Exceptions don't make the rule.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 15, 2018, 01:33:39 am
And that brings me back to my (bottom line) point: because an EV works for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone with today's infrastructure. Exceptions don't make the rule.

If that's your viewpoint, we're in complete agreement. I (and I'm not alone here) did not get that impression from your previous comments - they were the logical inverse (ie, because it doesn't work for a few today, it can't work for anyone).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: edavid on April 15, 2018, 01:37:15 am
There are 3 to 4 times more people living in Europe compared to the US. I'm very sure your hundreds of millions of people is grossly over estimated.

Actually 2.3X the number of people, and 1.1X the number of vehicles:

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/europe-population/ (http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/europe-population/)
The current population of Europe is 742,525,139 as of Saturday, April 14, 2018, based on the latest United Nations estimates.

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ (http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/)
The current population of the United States of America is 326,267,282 as of Saturday, April 14, 2018, based on the latest United Nations estimates.

http://www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/vehicles-in-use (http://www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/vehicles-in-use)
There are some 291 million vehicles on Europe's roads, or one for every two people.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/)
This graph shows the number of vehicles in the U.S. from 1990 through 2016. Some 268.8 million vehicles were registered here in 2016.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 15, 2018, 02:23:54 am
And that brings me back to my (bottom line) point: because an EV works for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone with today's infrastructure. Exceptions don't make the rule.
So, your argument is that we shouldn't have EVs because they can't work for everyone.  I'm pretty sure that none of the pro-EV folks ever said or even implied they would work for everyone. Mainstream doesn't mean 100%. I don't think it even means 50%.

And the big argument against EVs - that they really don't help solve the problem - has been disproven in multiple ways so we seem to be left with the silly argument that "they can't apply to everyone so they should go away".

At least the EVers are trying to help solve the problem of global warming. Happy to hear the anti-EVers approaches to that.  It's a very big problem and we all need to chip away at it. You may wish to see me as an arrogant, clueless American but at least I'm trying to do something about the problem. et tu?


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 15, 2018, 02:28:09 am
@phil: I found this interesting (but old) report: http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/OSE/FINAL%20REPORT_Removing%20Barriers%20to%20EV%20Adoption_TO%20POST.pdf (http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/OSE/FINAL%20REPORT_Removing%20Barriers%20to%20EV%20Adoption_TO%20POST.pdf)

I wonder how much of it has been implemented.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 15, 2018, 02:31:08 am
It is absolutely tiring how people from USA don't want to accept that rest of the world is different.

Generalize much? The thread topic is about when EVs will become mainstream. Right now, they are not, but forum users who currently drive EVs decided to share their respective experiences to indicate that the many objections raised (eg: range anxiety) are largely irrelevant. I didn't see anyone other than you turn this into a USA v. the rest of the world argument. If it were, how would you explain Norway's EV ownership statistics?

Also, I lived half my life outside the US, in either a house with a garage, or an apartment with reserved parking spots. Is it common? Not to the same extent as in the suburban US, but not everyone parks on the street (when at home) either.

Go check out some user forums for EVs, there are plenty of folks who own EVs despite not having home charging facilities.


I think you should look much further than you home town and collect some real numbers to back up your claim (IOW: do the math).

I don't see you backing up any of your claims with data or references. Also:

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/units.html (https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/units.html)


Cue next moving of the goal posts in 3... 2... 1...

Thank you for asking, no I don't generalize much, or that often.  How about you? I didn't say ALL Americans are like  that..
I wanted to say that I'm pissed when Americans do that. Because I expect better...

I personally said I would LOVE to own an EV if :
1. price wasn't 2x of same IC vehicle
2. I had a reliable way of charging it.
3. I don't have a range anxiety. EV would perfectly fit my use case in that regard.

That being said, thank you for excellent link to census data. Which exactly explains the disconnect we have here..

From census data (2000) it shows that on average more than 60% of people in USA live in houses with easy capability to charge at home.
Norway has almost same population as Croatia (5 vs 4 Mil), in  country that is vast and about 50% of housing is detached single homes. So almost the same as USA. In Spain, 65% of people live in apartments, Germany 55% etc. In Croatia, there are many detached houses in the cities, but parking on the street... In Italy too...  So yes, numbers do tell the story..

Sad truth is that you cannot extrapolate any conclusion from existing EV ownership. Current EV owners are enthusiasts and those that are lucky to be in position to be able to afford and operate EV.
They are more anomaly than something that can be used to extract plans how to go forward.

As you yourself say topic was "mainstream use of EV". Not so soon, not until infrastructure is built. And that is something that will be really hard somewhere and not so much somewhere else..

Regards,

Sinisa



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 15, 2018, 02:57:16 am
I find the Zinc cycle intriguing. You could imagine a system where zinc would serve as the storage medium in a flow-battery/zinc-recoverer, while in a car it would be fuel for a fuel cell (https://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/newenergyandfuel/com/2010/09/14/refuelable-zinc-air-battery-returns-as-a-fuel-cell/). The flow battery would be at tank stations and at home. The flow battery doesn't really care that zinc in alkaline solutions doesn't plate nicely, it gets mechanically removed and compacted, and the fuel cell doesn't have to plate at all.

It's a bit of a chicken and egg problem though, no tank stations, no cars. Electric cars have it easier, because every mains socket is a (slow) tank station. It would need to be forced by government. On the plus side, the tank stations could provide distributed grid electricity storage.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 03:06:01 am
And that brings me back to my (bottom line) point: because an EV works for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone with today's infrastructure. Exceptions don't make the rule.
So, your argument is that we shouldn't have EVs because they can't work for everyone.
That is not my argument. People keep raving on about how easy it is to charge yadda yadda yadda but from their own little bubble they seem forget that the electricity needs to come from somewhere and thus needs to be transported. If the majority of the cars are EVs upgrading the grid (at some point) alone will require a massive investment  which needs to be paid for one way or another. Also include that people are seeking acknowledgement that they made the right choice by buying an EV as an early adopter.
Quote
And the big argument against EVs - that they really don't help solve the problem - has been disproven in multiple ways so we seem to be left with the silly argument that "they can't apply to everyone so they should go away".
That is not true and easy to proof mathematically. Depending on how electricity is generated an EV can produce more CO2 per distance travelled compared to a fuel economic car. This has been proven over and over again so we are not going to do a recap in every post.

You really should put EVs in a context where there is a lot of development when it comes to renewable energy and alternative ways of getting cars moving. Bio-fuels, (hydrogen) fuel cells, etc are also under development and each have their own advantages/disadvantages. Nothing is set in stone yet.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 15, 2018, 03:14:04 am
@phil: I found this interesting (but old) report: http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/OSE/FINAL%20REPORT_Removing%20Barriers%20to%20EV%20Adoption_TO%20POST.pdf (http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/OSE/FINAL%20REPORT_Removing%20Barriers%20to%20EV%20Adoption_TO%20POST.pdf)

I wonder how much of it has been implemented.

I read it when it came out but had forgotten it. Thanks for reminding me. When it came out I recall thinking it was part of the "consultant full employment movement". A lot of scattershot ideas with basically zero meat (private charger sharing, for example). The only half way reasonable one was DCFC (think ChaDeMo, not death cab for cuties...) on city properties and that hasn't happened. In fact, instead of requiring that apartment construction include EV charging in parking spaces (or at least wiring for it) they have now allowed apartments to be built with no parking at all. And the extent of their support is adding a handful of Level 2 chargers in random on-street places. (It's been shown that L2 chargers get approximately 1 use every two days, FAIL.). The number of L2 chargers in private lots has been increasing but that was not due to any government efforts - driven by customer demand. Probably the biggest addition has been a large number of chargers at the airport parking structure and that has it's issues that I won't go into here. For one of the most progressive cities in the US, Seattle doesn't even make the top 10 "EV friendly" city list. Though, it continually ranks high in EV ownership.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 15, 2018, 03:20:42 am
That is not true and easy to proof mathematically. Depending on how electricity is generated an EV can produce more CO2 per distance travelled compared to a fuel economic car. This has been proven over and over again so we are not going to do a recap in every post.

You really should put EVs in a context where there is a lot of development when it comes to renewable energy and alternative ways of getting cars moving. Bio-fuels, (hydrogen) fuel cells, etc are also under development and each have their own advantages/disadvantages. Nothing is set in stone yet.
Then you really are ignoring all the points that have been made and the studies link.  I don't see how repeating them will help.

If bio-fuels and hydrogen are your answers, you really have not done your homework.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 15, 2018, 03:20:53 am
I find the Zinc cycle intriguing. You could imagine a system where zinc would serve as the storage medium in a flow-battery/zinc-recoverer, while in a car it would be fuel for a fuel cell (https://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/newenergyandfuel/com/2010/09/14/refuelable-zinc-air-battery-returns-as-a-fuel-cell/). The flow battery would be at tank stations and at home. The flow battery doesn't really care that zinc in alkaline solutions doesn't plate nicely, it gets mechanically removed and compacted, and the fuel cell doesn't have to plate at all.
Zinc-air batteries were being used in transport applications before lithium ones. They sound great, as energy density is good, zinc is fairly light and plentiful, and you don't need to carry the air. They seemed to have too many degradation issues to reach the big time, though. The article you referenced doesn't seem to offer any major breakthroughs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 15, 2018, 03:28:01 am


It is absolutely tiring how people from USA don't want to accept that rest of the world is different. If we (people not from USA) say something different we are immediately either stupid or don't know better..
We're not. We just live somewhere else where socioeconomic, historic, geographic and all kinds of other facts are simply different.
So we think different and live differently in different environment wanting different things...

Regards,
Sinisa


Where am I not accepting that other parts of the world are different? I started this whole debate with something along the lines of "if you live in a different situation then this doesn't apply to you" so if it doesn't apply to you why are you even debating? Are you seriously saying that suburbs are exclusive to the USA? While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.

After all this, I'm still seeing the argument "Well it doesn't work for my little corner of the world therefore it won't work for anybody" and when I point out that there are *millions* of people who live in situations where it will work and in fact does work I get fingers in the ears "La La La La La!!!!" and restating some previous tired argument or trying to turn this into some one country vs another country debate. Stop trying to claim that I'm saying EVs will work well for everybody or that every other country is just like the USA, or that the USA is superior to other countries because I've said none of this. These are counter-arguments invented in the heads of the naysayers.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 15, 2018, 03:44:21 am
I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.

The same is true for tens of millions of Europeans. Germany and France have many large suburbs. True in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary as well. Less so in southern Europe but still quite common IME.  I say this as someone who has travelled extensively throughout Europe - including one 8 month continuous visit.

Just as some Americans make generalizations based on their limited experience, some Europeans are guilty of the same.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 15, 2018, 03:48:30 am
While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.
I don't know which parts of the UK you went to, but off street parking is only available for a small percentage of UK homes.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 03:59:02 am
That is not true and easy to proof mathematically. Depending on how electricity is generated an EV can produce more CO2 per distance travelled compared to a fuel economic car. This has been proven over and over again so we are not going to do a recap in every post.

You really should put EVs in a context where there is a lot of development when it comes to renewable energy and alternative ways of getting cars moving. Bio-fuels, (hydrogen) fuel cells, etc are also under development and each have their own advantages/disadvantages. Nothing is set in stone yet.
Then you really are ignoring all the points that have been made and the studies link.  I don't see how repeating them will help.
You don't need a study to take the CO2 emissions from the EPA website for a fuel economic car and look up the CO2 emissions per kWh electricity for a country or region. It is simple primary school calculus.
The problem with many studies is that they just acknowledge the opinion of who paid for doing the study.
Quote
If bio-fuels and hydrogen are your answers, you really have not done your homework.
Well bio-fuel has been around for decades already. But it is there and growing steadily. The best thing is: it doesn't require changes in infrastructure or equipment people have. The downside is that it isn't new or very different so it is not sexy.

I have also ran some numbers on bio-fuel. If the US switches to fuel economic cars which use about half compared to the current cars then the US should be able to run nearly all the cars on bio-fuel made from agricultural leftovers (according to the numbers from Poet-DSM when it comes to fuel production per surface area of land used for agriculture). And no, this doesn't take any land away for growing food! Also most of the existing cars can run on bio-fuel already or easely be adapted.

Hydrogen has the advantage that it can be made from water using electricity and it also solves the storage problem. Very interesting for wind turbines and/or solar on or near water (sea or lakes). The efficiency isn't great but if placing an extra wind turbine is cheaper compared to batteries then the choice is easy.

Meanwhile I'll wait and see where things go while filling my car with the highest blend of bio-fuel I can find at the gas station.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 15, 2018, 04:02:43 am
While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.
I don't know which parts of the UK you went to, but off street parking is only available for a small percentage of UK homes.

The question of course is what percentage?  10%?  That would still be a very large number.

The other important point is that as long as you can park directly next to your home (even if it is not "private") - you can still charge an EV.

When I travel with my Volt, I bring a heavy gauge extension cord and often plug in to outlets in parking garages, outside of buildings, etc.  There's even an "App for that"  - called PlugShare which shows places others have found to charge their EVs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 15, 2018, 04:22:16 am
Zinc-air batteries were being used in transport applications before lithium ones. They sound great, as energy density is good, zinc is fairly light and plentiful, and you don't need to carry the air. They seemed to have too many degradation issues to reach the big time, though. The article you referenced doesn't seem to offer any major breakthroughs.

It doesn't use batteries in the car, it uses a fuel cell. The problems of car batteries are less of a problem in flow batteries, you have more room before dendrites can reach the cathode, parts can be easily serviced, electrolyte can be replaced etc. The fuel cell meanwhile gets flushed with fresh electrolyte each mechanical charging cycle so it doesn't accumulate crud very quickly.

It's not a problem of breakthroughs, it's problem of bootstrapping. EV can start small easier than mechanically recharged Zinc fuel cells.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 15, 2018, 04:47:25 am
I don't know which parts of the UK you went to, but off street parking is only available for a small percentage of UK homes.

The question of course is what percentage?  10%?  That would still be a very large number.

The other important point is that as long as you can park directly next to your home (even if it is not "private") - you can still charge an EV.

When I travel with my Volt, I bring a heavy gauge extension cord and often plug in to outlets in parking garages, outside of buildings, etc.  There's even an "App for that"  - called PlugShare which shows places others have found to charge their EVs.
I don't know where we might find proper figures for this, but I'd guess 10-15% of UK homes have off street parking. I would be surprised if its much more than that. Few people have an assigned street parking spot, but more importantly the sidewalk/pavement between the kerb and the house is public land. The house owner can't just dangle a charging cable across that space, and they have no right to install a charging unit at the kerb. In many older towns, the streets are too narrow to even offer enough space at the kerb for a for a box like that. A mother can barely push a pram along the pavement as it is. It would require a massive change in policy to alter this. Its massive because issues of exclusive use/ownership of what is now public space will arise. Sadly, nobody is even trying to discuss this kind of preparation for an electric car future.

Taking a long charging cable wouldn't be much help in the UK. Unless you are travelling to a friend with an unusally large amount of off street parking, which can accommodate your car as well as theirs, you won't be able to plug that cable in.

If the 10-15% with off street parking had electric cars it would make only a small difference to the emissions in UK cities, especially as this 10-15% are in the less densely populated parts. You need a solution that can scale to, say, 50% to start having a meaningful impact.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 05:06:27 am
The same is true for most of the cities in the Netherlands as well. If I want to charge an EV at home I'd need an extension cord and hope nobody pulls it out at night. Not to mention cars will drive over the cord so it may not be a safe solution. All in all charging at home is not a viable solution for densely populated areas where people don't have a private parking space.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 15, 2018, 06:34:16 am

Where am I not accepting that other parts of the world are different? I started this whole debate with something along the lines of "if you live in a different situation then this doesn't apply to you" so if it doesn't apply to you why are you even debating? Are you seriously saying that suburbs are exclusive to the USA? While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.

After all this, I'm still seeing the argument "Well it doesn't work for my little corner of the world therefore it won't work for anybody" and when I point out that there are *millions* of people who live in situations where it will work and in fact does work I get fingers in the ears "La La La La La!!!!" and restating some previous tired argument or trying to turn this into some one country vs another country debate. Stop trying to claim that I'm saying EVs will work well for everybody or that every other country is just like the USA, or that the USA is superior to other countries because I've said none of this. These are counter-arguments invented in the heads of the naysayers.

Dear James_S,

please, I already apologized to all Americans (except donald duck trumpet, man has to draw line somewhere :-)) if I hurt anybody's feelings.
I didn't address it to you or anybody personally..

On the other side if you read rest of my messages you would know I'm NOT AGAINST EVs.
Quite the opposite, I'm very unhappy and frustrated that THEY ARE NOT REALITY at this moment, and that fact holds for many places in EU.

I want EV's, and if anybody wants that to become reality, we need to say the truth and say how it is.
So we can start fixing things, to get there one day...

EU is mostly EV not ready and there is a lot of work ahead us.. That is not a naysaying, that is a start of work specification.
Saying that reality check is bullshit, and that all is rosy, and that even few million EVs are big deal... It's very idealistic and noble, but..
I say few milion EV's are statistical anomaly on EU level... Not mainstream, and not even close to some solution... 
30-40 % of non IC vehicles would make some difference.

10% of EVs is nothing, it doesn't fix nothing and save nobody. If they would start making light, low horsepower IC  (800 kg, 60 kW) with fuel efficient engines, that would halve emissions and would be equivalent to 50% of EV market penetration... All if people would only want to change habits and give up on 1.5 t 200HP vehicles.... And you wouldn't have to change anything except people's habits and expectations..

So I agree with you we need to give our best and shouldn't listen to naysayers...

Best regards,

Sinisa
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 15, 2018, 07:42:31 am
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.

The best scenario is walkable cities with good public transportation systems and EVs for those outside the city centers. 

And BTW there is no reason why fee based low power charging stations could not eventually be made commonplace on residential streets where private parking is not available.  Low power charging stations for overnight charging would not be a hugely expensive or complicated infrastructure change.



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 15, 2018, 08:05:22 am
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.

The best scenario is walkable cities with good public transportation systems and EVs for those outside the city centers. 

And BTW there is no reason why fee based low power charging stations could not eventually be made commonplace on residential streets where private parking is not available.  Low power charging stations for overnight charging would not be a hugely expensive or complicated infrastructure change.

True. Problem is that exactly people living rural areas are those that do have range anxiety...

Best technology would be EV with 150 km range with small backup generator on board for "limp home mode".
And aggressive buildup of public parkings with chargers in cities.... In rural areas people would charge at home, and would be sure that they will always come home.

Regards,

Sinisa
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on April 15, 2018, 08:14:39 am
True. Problem is that exactly people living rural areas are those that do have range anxiety...

Best technology would be EV with 150 km range with small backup generator on board for "limp home mode".
They already exist, they are called plugin hybrids.
So you can always charge your batteries with a little combustion engine.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 08:18:47 am
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.
No. In the NL suburbs are also densely populated. The problem is that public transport goes from city centre to city centre and doesn't reach the outskirts where the companies are (typicall) located. In the NL only 15% of the people use public transport to travel to work and 75% uses a car. After all: public transport takes you from a place you are not at to a place where you don't need to go. Public transport is therefore very slow and I only use it to go to places which are hard to reach by a car due to traffic jams. For example: every now and then I have to go to a customer in Amsterdam. If I use the train it takes 50 minutes door-to-door. If I use the car it takes 25 minutes (without traffic jams). For shorter distances a bycicle (or even walking) is faster than public transport.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 15, 2018, 08:35:09 am
True. Problem is that exactly people living rural areas are those that do have range anxiety...

Best technology would be EV with 150 km range with small backup generator on board for "limp home mode".
They already exist, they are called plugin hybrids.
So you can always charge your batteries with a little combustion engine.
Not all of them are series hybrid type. Most of them are standard mechanic/electric parallel or power split hybrid.

Series type are only ones that have simple drivetrain of EV, and generator is simply range extender. You could make it a large suitcase sized module, that you could put into your car only if you need it..

Regards,
Sinisa



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 08:46:36 am
Maybe this will help  :-DD
(https://static.webshopapp.com/shops/074363/files/056410992/telwin-powerbank-drive-9000.jpg)
A small generator won't cut it because of the power needed to move a car. For that the generator would need to have an engine which is the size of a car engine.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 15, 2018, 09:04:05 am
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.
No. In the NL suburbs are also densely populated.

Are you seriously arguing that people who have homes with private parking do not drive any more on average than those who don't?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 15, 2018, 09:17:08 am
Maybe this will help  :-DD
(https://static.webshopapp.com/shops/074363/files/056410992/telwin-powerbank-drive-9000.jpg)
A small generator won't cut it because of the power needed to move a car. For that the generator would need to have an engine which is the size of a car engine.
Old Fiat 126 had 18KW engine and could go more than 100 km/h. I remember Porsche commercial saying it was so aerodynamic it neded only 32 HP to go 120 km/h.

There are miniature gas turbine generators available, that are suitcase sized and have power in 100 kW range... Way more than enough...

But it would be nice if you could charge the phone too :-))

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 09:48:49 am
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.
No. In the NL suburbs are also densely populated.
Are you seriously arguing that people who have homes with private parking do not drive any more on average than those who don't?
There are two categories of people with private parking spaces in the NL:
1) People with free standing homes are usually rich enough to buy a home close to their company so they don't need to travel far to work.
2) People who have the car parked in the garden of their townhouses (they got suckered into buying a house without a public parking space).
Either way neither have a reason to travel shorter or longer based on what kind of home they have. Keep in mind that the NL is anything like the US. A one hour drive gets you (literally) halfway through the country.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 15, 2018, 09:51:49 am
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.

The best scenario is walkable cities with good public transportation systems and EVs for those outside the city centers. 

And BTW there is no reason why fee based low power charging stations could not eventually be made commonplace on residential streets where private parking is not available.  Low power charging stations for overnight charging would not be a hugely expensive or complicated infrastructure change.

True. Problem is that exactly people living rural areas are those that do have range anxiety...

Best technology would be EV with 150 km range with small backup generator on board for "limp home mode".
And aggressive buildup of public parkings with chargers in cities.... In rural areas people would charge at home, and would be sure that they will always come home.

Regards,

Sinisa

There are huge numbers of people living in suburbs with private parking that are not exactly rural. I can look out my window and see the neighbor's EV parked in their driveway plugged in right now, it's literally right outside, they drive it to work every day, it's so strange to have people denying that this situation exists when it's in my reality. Until a majority of these people have EVs we don't even need to discuss those for whom a conventional car or plugin hybrid are a better option, why are we still fixated on those situations?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 15, 2018, 10:06:43 am
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.
No. In the NL suburbs are also densely populated.
Are you seriously arguing that people who have homes with private parking do not drive any more on average than those who don't?
There are two categories of people with private parking spaces in the NL:
1) People with free standing homes are usually rich enough to buy a home close to their company so they don't need to travel far to work.
2) People who have the car parked in the garden of their townhouses (they got suckered into buying a house without a public parking space).
Either way neither have a reason to travel shorter or longer based on what kind of home they have. Keep in mind that the NL is anything unlike the US. A one hour drive gets you (literally) halfway through the country.

You are generalizing your experience in the NL which is a very small country. It is not typical of Europe in general (I know from first hand experience).  And of course it is not typical of many other places in the world besides Europe and the USA. 

The point stands: Those who have private parking available will on average drive much more than those who live in densely populated areas and do not.

Also - in general,  being rural does not mean one would have range anxiety. For example, I live in a rural area but my daily work commute is 12 miles round trip.  The closest large city - Seattle - is  60 miles drive away.  There are literally millions of people living in rural locations that are within 100 miles of Seattle.   I know from first hand experience, the same is true for many rural areas in the US, Canada, and throughout Europe.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 10:14:43 am
There are huge numbers of people living in suburbs with private parking that are not exactly rural. I can look out my window and see the neighbor's EV parked in their driveway plugged in right now, it's literally right outside, they drive it to work every day, it's so strange to have people denying that this situation exists when it's in my reality.
Nobody is denying that such a situation can exist somewhere. But it isn't a defacto standard. If I look out of my window I see no EVs at all in the entire street.

The point stands: Those who have private parking available will on average drive much more than those who live in densely populated areas and do not.
Without numbers to back it up this is just your opinion. I see no reason why a group of people with their cars parked on their driveway or a group of people with their cars parked in public parking spaces (IOW along the street) should drive a different distances. There is no logic to that.

Besides that I'm not projecting the situation in the NL. Look at the population density of Europe and you'll see several very large areas with high densities: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Europe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Europe)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 15, 2018, 10:20:07 am
There are miniature gas turbine generators available, that are suitcase sized and have power in 100 kW range... Way more than enough...

Mazda is doing a small rotary engine as a range extender, but you'll probably get screwed on subsidies here if you actually buy it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 15, 2018, 10:24:21 am

The point stands: Those who have private parking available will on average drive much more than those who live in densely populated areas and do not.
Without numbers to back it up this is just your opinion. I see no reason why a group of people with their cars on their driveway or a group of people with their cars parked in public parking spaces (IOW along the street) should drive a different distances. There is no logic to that.

Here is the obvious logical point which you keep doing contortions to avoid:

People who live in densely populated areas drive on average much less than those who live in typical (not NL dense) suburbs or rural areas.

Add:  A quick google search gives  this hard data (http://www.wstc.wa.gov/StatewideTransportationSystem/documents/2014_RUCFleetJunesurvey_Report_000.pdf) for my state of Washington:

"Residents in Rural areas drive the most: 22,243 miles per year for the
average household, followed by Suburban households (18,368). Residents
in Urban areas drive the least: 13,206 miles for the average household"
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 15, 2018, 10:32:18 am
Besides that I'm not projecting the situation in the NL.

You absolutely are. It has nothing to do with the fact that many parts of Europe have high population density. Many parts of the US do as well. It has to do with your generalizing and implying that because a typical NL suburb in your experience does not have private parking this is true througout Europe. It is not  - based on my first hand experience in several European countries.

All one has to do is use Google maps or do a Google search of UK suburbs or French suburbs or German suburbs to see photos and see for oneself.

BTW - I just used Google maps to look at suburbs around Amsterdam and apparently your assertion is not universally true in the NL.  Many  houses with private parking.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 10:43:08 am
If charging an EV at home would be so easy in the NL then why are only 0.29% of the cars EVs? Numbers talk... A single observation not so much.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 03:17:37 pm
Pretty compelling evidence about EV cars in our future. Facts are well researched.

https://youtu.be/ns_0UTOc6X4

https://youtu.be/jntsT0BdxDw

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 15, 2018, 03:17:56 pm
Sad truth is that you cannot extrapolate any conclusion from existing EV ownership. Current EV owners are enthusiasts and those that are lucky to be in position to be able to afford and operate EV.
They are more anomaly than something that can be used to extract plans how to go forward.

As you yourself say topic was "mainstream use of EV". Not so soon, not until infrastructure is built. And that is something that will be really hard somewhere and not so much somewhere else..
The question, in my opinion, is if the reason most EV owners today are enthusiasts (I wouldn't call myself that, but I see your point) is for any real reason, or due to lack of information. Take the two biggest sellers of EVs in the US, Tesla and Chevy. Tesla almost single-handedly raised the level of awareness of EVs, but have a reputation of being very expensive. Chevy on the other hand built two superb cars, but did little to nothing to advertise them.

Infrastructure won't take off unless there's adoption, and adoption won't take off unless there's infrastructure. The usual short cut is government incentives, but I do think some evangelism can go a long way.

A lot of scattershot ideas with basically zero meat (private charger sharing, for example). The only half way reasonable one was DCFC (think ChaDeMo, not death cab for cuties...) on city properties and that hasn't happened. In fact, instead of requiring that apartment construction include EV charging in parking spaces (or at least wiring for it) they have now allowed apartments to be built with no parking at all. And the extent of their support is adding a handful of Level 2 chargers in random on-street places. (It's been shown that L2 chargers get approximately 1 use every two days, FAIL.).

That sucks, I was hoping for better results. As for L2 charging, I live in a medium sized city of 150,000 and all the city-owned parking structures have free L2 chargers, with free parking on Sundays. I get brunch and some shopping done for a couple of hours and get about $1 of free charging, or 45 miles added range. It's a nice incentive and the city probably made more money in taxes than they spent on my free charge. They are also providing subsidies to businesses that would like to install L2 and L3 chargers. Sadly, very few takers for L3 charging so far.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 15, 2018, 03:57:54 pm
If charging an EV at home would be so easy in the NL then why are only 0.29% of the cars EVs? Numbers talk... A single observation not so much.

Perhaps there are a lot of guys like you who have a deep emotionally based belief that they won't work, aren't easy, etc?

I know people who flat out insist that LED bulbs don't save money compared to old fashioned incandescent lamps, refute this and they'll spout off edge cases that LED bulbs won't work well with, change the subject, deflect, bring up the same edge cases over and over again, despite the fact that almost every light in my house has been LED for years. Buuut but but they won't work in an oven! Ok yeah, sure, that's why I have an incandescent bulb in my oven, so what? It's the same attitude. It's a religious belief of sorts, not possible to sway with logic or fact.

10 years ago I think it would be generous to estimate that 0.29% of domestic lighting was LED, "numbers talk" so that means that LEDs are completely unsuitable for lighting obviously doesn't it? Well except that clearly this isn't the case because at least out here they have caught on big and are now widely available and widely used. Doesn't stop a certain type of person from hoarding old fashioned incandescent bulbs because they believe them to be cheaper but whatever. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 15, 2018, 04:02:15 pm
While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.
I don't know which parts of the UK you went to, but off street parking is only available for a small percentage of UK homes.

I went to Manchester, there were suburbs there not unlike the suburbs here. Smaller, flatter, a lot fewer trees, the houses were overwhelmingly made of brick rather than wood and people drove on the "wrong" side of the road but otherwise it felt not entirely unfamiliar. I'm sure the numbers are available if one was inclined to look them up, and I'd be shocked it more than 5% of the people for whom an EV would be a good match already have one, which means there's a huge potential market that has not been saturated.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 15, 2018, 05:56:25 pm
The UK has pledged to ban the sale of new ICE only cars by 2030 (IIRC).  Given the mentioned issues of charging a large number of those will be ICE charged hybrids.

Also, wanted to mention, I watched "10 Billion" last night.  Figures from think tanks suggest that our global population will be at least 10 billion and our energy demands will be doubled by 2050.  That will require something like 23,000 nuclear power plants to be built or 40,000 coal/oil plants.  Depressingly the hard knock truth summary the film gives is "We are fucked.", EVs et. al. are just token gestures because the scale and momentum of the problem will require a LOT more to fix.  Renewables just isn't going to expand fast enough or even be all that practical on a large scale, as large as we need to get off fossil fuels.  Not to mention there are still trillions and trillions of dollars of fossil fuels to be extracted and more is found every day.  Who honestly believes that big oil will stop and leave that money in the ground?

The only advice the think tanks can give is:  Consume less.  Less energy, less food, less stuff and have less kids.... or we are fucked.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 15, 2018, 09:26:16 pm
While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.
I don't know which parts of the UK you went to, but off street parking is only available for a small percentage of UK homes.

I went to Manchester, there were suburbs there not unlike the suburbs here. Smaller, flatter, a lot fewer trees, the houses were overwhelmingly made of brick rather than wood and people drove on the "wrong" side of the road but otherwise it felt not entirely unfamiliar. I'm sure the numbers are available if one was inclined to look them up, and I'd be shocked it more than 5% of the people for whom an EV would be a good match already have one, which means there's a huge potential market that has not been saturated.
Sure, Manchester has affluent suburbs like Woodford which are very open, with reasonably large front gardens and driveways for most houses. That represents a few percent of the houses in Manchester.

If you consider the market by numbers, there are certainly still plenty of opportunities to sell electric cars to people with off road parking. If you consider the market by the percentage needed to make a significant difference to the environment in the UK (i.e. to make a useful change), things are more problematic.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 10:05:53 pm
The UK has pledged to ban the sale of new ICE only cars by 2030 (IIRC).  Given the mentioned issues of charging a large number of those will be ICE charged hybrids.
It won't be the first time a government changes their heading if an idea turns out to be not that good after a while. With diesel-gate fresh in mind politicians are likely to pitch all kind of ideas to make them look good. 2030 is still far away.
Quote
Renewables just isn't going to expand fast enough or even be all that practical on a large scale, as large as we need to get off fossil fuels.  Not to mention there are still trillions and trillions of dollars of fossil fuels to be extracted and more is found every day.  Who honestly believes that big oil will stop and leave that money in the ground?
The idea seems to be to catch CO2 at power plants and store it underground. I'm principally against that because putting large amounts of CO2 in the ground creates toxic gas pockets (a few % of CO2 is enough to kill you) which stay dangerous forever (forever as in until the earth falls apart). Compared to that even storing radioactive material is a more sensible bad idea because radioactive material will stop radiating at some point in time.

Consuming less is a good idea and I think most countries got the message now. Unfortunately Mr Trump has set the US back a couple of decades by turning the EPA into the IPA (industy protection agency). Since the US is a major contributor to CO2 emissions (the world's second largest in absolute numbers) that is a real problem for the world.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 15, 2018, 10:23:41 pm
The UK has pledged to ban the sale of new ICE only cars by 2030 (IIRC).  Given the mentioned issues of charging a large number of those will be ICE charged hybrids.
It won't be the first time a government changes their heading if an idea turns out to be not that good after a while. With diesel-gate fresh in mind politicians are likely to pitch all kind of ideas to make them look good. 2030 is still far away.
Quote
The whole 2030 thing in the UK is a knee jerk reaction. The UK heavily promoted the lower CO2 output of diesels, to the extent that many luxury cars were not even offered with a gasoline engine option in the UK. Now they are waking up to the higher NOx levels this has caused in cities, they are suddenly turning against diesels. Taxation rules no longer favour them, and gasoline versions of luxury cars are being launched. Its a typical dumb populist move. The majority of the NOx comes from older diesels, even though most of the Euro 6 ones are obviously cheating to some extent. Instead of tightening up on the diesel emissions, diesels have suddenly become the bad guys, and the higher CO2 from petrol engines is no longer the hot topic of the week.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 03:00:15 am
I have an electric cars and it seems to me it’s the bickering between the electric car manufactures on charging stations types and plugs which is impeding the adaptation of electric cars.

I just drove to a very large mega shopping cente near Palm Springs California.  There are over 200 stores and they advertise free car charging for electric cars while shopping.

Pulled in hoping to get a charge and some shopping done.  Took me 20 minutes to find the charging station.  No one knew where the charging station was.  Finally found it....  There were only two spaces for electric cars yest ona busy weekend this mall would see well over 10,000 shoppers.

Had to wait for one of the two spaces, finally was able to get a space.  Pulled in, only to find the charging station plug does not work with a Chevy. 

As a consumer this is BS.  Why isn’t there just one standard plug for electric cars? So I called the phone number on the chargaing station to see where the nearest Chevy charger was.  It was over 2 miles away at a hotel.  I was told to part there and take a Taxi or maybe a Uber to get to and from the shopping center.

So here you folks are talking about infrastructure, the electric car companies are fighting over what infrastructure to install.  I’m a correct that Tesla makes it so only Tesla cars car be charged in Tesla Chargers?  And then aren’t there three other types of electric car plugs which are all different?

Yes it’s the chicken and egg question, but if the electric car companies can’t agree on what type of plug to use I can see why there’s reluctance to install electric car infrastructure.  What happens if Tesla goes out of business or changes the plug?  Same question about Chevy?  Ever see the GM Sequel?
 
GM vice-chairman Bob Lutz said in a TED talk Cheverlot GM produce hydrogen powered Sequels.  Not sure what happened by after this announcement was made unveiled Volt in 2008 instead of hydrogen powered cars.

Back to the chicken and the egg.  What’s a city/business/home owner to do?  Do you install hydrogen, natural gas or electric refueling station.  If you install electric which plug do you support?  Or do you support all?  And then what happens if the industry/technology changes the plug?  Or one of the car companies goes out of business/stops making electric cars a lot of money would have be wasted on an infrastructure which might never be used. 

Heck even for my home charger I have to select between 6 different AC plugs configurations.  Why are there no standards in the electric car industry?  Or if there are, why aren’t they being followed?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 03:13:49 am
Had to wait for one of the two spaces, finally was able to get a space.  Pulled in, only to find the charging station plug does not work with a Chevy. 

As a consumer this is BS.  Why isn’t there just one standard plug for electric cars? So I called the phone number on the chargaing station to see where the nearest Chevy charger was.  It was over 2 miles away at a hotel.  I was told to part there and take a Taxi or maybe a Uber to get to and from the shopping center.

So here you folks are talking about infrastructure, the electric car companies are fighting over what infrastructure to install.  I’m a correct that Tesla makes it so only Tesla cars car be charged in Tesla Chargers?  And then aren’t there three other types of electric car plugs which are all different?
That is the problem with being an early adopter. You get to deal with all the sh*t and it will get much worse before getting better (I was an early adopter of DSL internet...). In order to make EVs mainstream they'll have to charge faster which will require a totally different plug. AFAIK the reason Tesla is incompatible is not because they want to but because they want to be able to charge at higher speeds which isn't possible with the standard plugs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 03:14:45 am
Another reason in the US electric cars can be a pain in the ass.  (I’d like to know if this is happening in other countries......  People are ass-holes.  I pulled into a hotel which had 4 EV charging station parking spaces.  Checked in and asked where the EV chargaing parking spaces were.  I was told they were all filled.  Really?  I looked out the window and yup every space was filled.  But not with EV cars, they were filled with internal combustion vehicle cars.  Not one could be charged.  The hotel clerk told me employees with park in the EV space because the parking space was closer to the hotel.

I could tell she wasn’t too happy about me having a EV vehicle.  She said by the time I I took my bags to my room she would have her car moved so I could charge my car.

What’s with people.  These four spaces were clearly marked and reserved for EV charging.  So why do ICE drivers think they can park in EV spaces?  What jerks.

But then I was thinking what if there were five guests who had EVs at this hotel which had only four spaces.  Would one of the four of us get a call at 3:00 in the morning telling us our car was charged and we would he to move it so another guest could get charged?

What’s the etiquette here?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 03:22:26 am
Had to wait for one of the two spaces, finally was able to get a space.  Pulled in, only to find the charging station plug does not work with a Chevy. 

As a consumer this is BS.  Why isn’t there just one standard plug for electric cars? So I called the phone number on the chargaing station to see where the nearest Chevy charger was.  It was over 2 miles away at a hotel.  I was told to part there and take a Taxi or maybe a Uber to get to and from the shopping center.

So here you folks are talking about infrastructure, the electric car companies are fighting over what infrastructure to install.  I’m a correct that Tesla makes it so only Tesla cars car be charged in Tesla Chargers?  And then aren’t there three other types of electric car plugs which are all different?
That is the problem with being an early adopter. You get to deal with all the sh*t and it will get much worse before getting better (I was an early adopter of DSL internet...). In order to make EVs mainstream they'll have to charge faster which will require a totally different plug. AFAIK the reason Tesla is incompatible is not because they want to but because they want to be able to charge at higher speeds which isn't possible with the standard plugs.

So what prevents them from installing the other plugs?   Which I suspect would draw less current?  Crap why can’t the electric car industry charger manufactures make public chargers with all the different plug types?

Or is there a reason Chevy and all of the other EV car manufactures can’t use the Tesla plug?  Or does Tesla charge an enormous royalty fee?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 03:52:08 am
Another reason EV cars won’t become mainstream is because some the them are assholes too.  I recently drove to a supermarket where they had a couple of EV charging spaces.  Signs around on on the EV charging stations clearly state, “Free EV car charging only while shopping at “Good Food” supermarket.

Similar to my EV parking spaces at hotels being parked in by ICE drivers, the EV charging spaces were being used by people working out in a gym across the street and others not shopping at the market wanting a free charge.  What’s wrong with these people?  If they did this at a gas station it would be called stealing.  But for some reason EV drivers feel they can take energy from businesses for free.

I asked an employee about it, and was told it’s turning into a big problem.  As people find businesses who have free charging they are taking advantage and “stealing” the power without shopping our supporting the business that’s giving them the “free” electricty.

The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.

In this case it’s EV drivers who are preventing the adoption of EV vehicles and installation of charging stations.
 



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 16, 2018, 04:01:54 am
Another reason EV cars won’t become mainstream is because some the them are assholes too.  I recently drove to a supermarket where they had a couple of EV charging spaces.  Signs around on on the EV charging stations clearly state, “Free EV car charging only while shopping at “Good Food” supermarket.

Similar to my EV parking spaces at hotels being parked in by ICE drivers, the EV charging spaces were being used by people working out in a gym across the street and others not shopping at the market wanting a free charge.  What’s wrong with these people?  If they did this at a gas station it would be called stealing.  But for some reason EV drivers feel they can take energy from businesses for free.

I asked an employee about it, and was told it’s turning into a big problem.  As people find businesses who have free charging they are taking advantage and “stealing” the power without shopping our supporting the business that’s giving them the “free” electricty.

The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.

In this case it’s EV drivers who are preventing the adoption of EV vehicles and installation of charging stations.
There appears to be a straightforward long term solution for this. Stores could operate these chargers as paid for chargers, and give drivers a token at the checkout to get their charge for free.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 16, 2018, 04:20:49 am
What’s with people.  These four spaces were clearly marked and reserved for EV charging.  So why do ICE drivers think they can park in EV spaces?  What jerks.

But then I was thinking what if there were five guests who had EVs at this hotel which had only four spaces.  Would one of the four of us get a call at 3:00 in the morning telling us our car was charged and we would he to move it so another guest could get charged?

What’s the etiquette here?

So for one thing, EV drivers are seen as 'smug' (one comment earlier in this thread), 'entitled', 'mooching off free stuff', etc., and people use that notion to justify parking an ICE car in an EV parking spot. Somehow that's seen as 'taking them down a notch'. I've heard my wife's own mother saying we're defrauding our city by charging for free.

As for charging etiquette, there aren't really any 'rules' yet but I did get a card with my home charger that you attach to the charging cord. One side indicates that you are 'opportunity charging', and lists a phone number to call in case you really need the spot. The other side indicates that I really need the charge. So far, nobody has called me to ask for my spot yet.

Commercial charging providers like Chargepoint can partner with multiple businesses so that the cost of operation is split. This neatly solves the common parking lot problem. Even when the charging is free, Chargepoint requires me to swipe an RFID to unlock the charge cable. I suppose they could add a feature where one would need to pay for the charge unless a business 'validates' (similar to parking) the charge session.

All EVs sold in the US have an SAE J1772 socket for level 2 charging. The differences are for level 3, where Tesla has their own proprietary plug. Many Japanese vendors use the CHAdeMO plug, everyone else (including Chevy) use the J1772 combo plug that includes two extra pins for DC charging. I'm guessing Tesla's reason for a proprietary plug is to prevent non-Tesla drivers from charging for free at Supercharger stations. So far, all the DC fast charge stations I've been to have both CHAdeMO and SAE combo plugs.

European EVs use the IEC type-2 connector, which can provide 3-phase power. This uses the same signaling as the single-phase J1772 socket, so a passive adapter can be used. CHAdeMO uses CAN bus for signaling, so one can't devise a passive adapter plug. Not sure what Tesla uses for signaling.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 04:22:34 am
Another reason EV cars won’t become mainstream is because some the them are assholes too.  I recently drove to a supermarket where they had a couple of EV charging spaces.  Signs around on on the EV charging stations clearly state, “Free EV car charging only while shopping at “Good Food” supermarket.

Similar to my EV parking spaces at hotels being parked in by ICE drivers, the EV charging spaces were being used by people working out in a gym across the street and others not shopping at the market wanting a free charge.  What’s wrong with these people?  If they did this at a gas station it would be called stealing.  But for some reason EV drivers feel they can take energy from businesses for free.

I asked an employee about it, and was told it’s turning into a big problem.  As people find businesses who have free charging they are taking advantage and “stealing” the power without shopping our supporting the business that’s giving them the “free” electricty.

The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.

In this case it’s EV drivers who are preventing the adoption of EV vehicles and installation of charging stations.
There appears to be a straightforward long term solution for this. Stores could operate these chargers as paid for chargers, and give drivers a token at the checkout to get their charge for free.

Yes they could.  But it's at an additional expense.  Yes it can be done but do you know of any commercial chargers for sale today whcih have that feature?  Or any businees who are using tokens right now?  I don't.  All fthe chargers I have seen do aren't confgured for taking tokens.  I suspect it would be very expensive to modify the existing charging stations to take tokens.  And then ther'e the cost of the ongoing maintance. 

If I were a business ower I think I would really think twice about installing and maintaing a charging station.

This is an example of the chicken and the egg where the chicken destory the egg and wonders why there aren't more chickens around.










Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 16, 2018, 04:28:11 am
Another reason EV cars won’t become mainstream is because some the them are assholes too.  I recently drove to a supermarket where they had a couple of EV charging spaces.  Signs around on on the EV charging stations clearly state, “Free EV car charging only while shopping at “Good Food” supermarket.

Similar to my EV parking spaces at hotels being parked in by ICE drivers, the EV charging spaces were being used by people working out in a gym across the street and others not shopping at the market wanting a free charge.  What’s wrong with these people?  If they did this at a gas station it would be called stealing.  But for some reason EV drivers feel they can take energy from businesses for free.

I asked an employee about it, and was told it’s turning into a big problem.  As people find businesses who have free charging they are taking advantage and “stealing” the power without shopping our supporting the business that’s giving them the “free” electricty.

The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.

In this case it’s EV drivers who are preventing the adoption of EV vehicles and installation of charging stations.
There appears to be a straightforward long term solution for this. Stores could operate these chargers as paid for chargers, and give drivers a token at the checkout to get their charge for free.

Yes they could.  But it's at an additional expense.  Yes it can be done but do you know of any commercial chargers for sale today whcih have that feature?  Or any businees who are using tokens right now?  I don't.  All fthe chargers I have seen do aren't confgured for taking tokens.  I suspect it would be very expensive to modify the existing charging stations to take tokens.  And then ther'e the cost of the ongoing maintance. 

If I were a business ower I think I would really think twice about installing and maintaing a charging station.

This is an example of the chicken and the egg where the chicken destory the egg and wonders why there aren't more chickens around.
The commercial chargers I have seen can interact with people's phones. They allow for "clubs", which either don't get charged, or have special rates. It seems unlikely they haven't provided for one off free charges through people's phones, even if they have no support for token schemes.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 04:32:35 am
What’s with people.  These four spaces were clearly marked and reserved for EV charging.  So why do ICE drivers think they can park in EV spaces?  What jerks.

But then I was thinking what if there were five guests who had EVs at this hotel which had only four spaces.  Would one of the four of us get a call at 3:00 in the morning telling us our car was charged and we would he to move it so another guest could get charged?

What’s the etiquette here?

So for one thing, EV drivers are seen as 'smug' (one comment earlier in this thread), 'entitled', 'mooching off free stuff', etc., and people use that notion to justify parking an ICE car in an EV parking spot. Somehow that's seen as 'taking them down a notch'. I've heard my wife's own mother saying we're defrauding our city by charging for free.

As for charging etiquette, there aren't really any 'rules' yet but I did get a card with my home charger that you attach to the charging cord. One side indicates that you are 'opportunity charging', and lists a phone number to call in case you really need the spot. The other side indicates that I really need the charge. So far, nobody has called me to ask for my spot yet.

Commercial charging providers like Chargepoint can partner with multiple businesses so that the cost of operation is split. This neatly solves the common parking lot problem. Even when the charging is free, Chargepoint requires me to swipe an RFID to unlock the charge cable. I suppose they could add a feature where one would need to pay for the charge unless a business 'validates' (similar to parking) the charge session.

All EVs sold in the US have an SAE J1772 socket for level 2 charging. The differences are for level 3, where Tesla has their own proprietary plug. Many Japanese vendors use the CHAdeMO plug, everyone else (including Chevy) use the J1772 combo plug that includes two extra pins for DC charging. I'm guessing Tesla's reason for a proprietary plug is to prevent non-Tesla drivers from charging for free at Supercharger stations. So far, all the DC fast charge stations I've been to have both CHAdeMO and SAE combo plugs.

European EVs use the IEC type-2 connector, which can provide 3-phase power. This uses the same signaling as the single-phase J1772 socket, so a passive adapter can be used. CHAdeMO uses CAN bus for signaling, so one can't devise a passive adapter plug. Not sure what Tesla uses for signaling.


So there are four plugs in use.  That's crazy.  Seems to me when I was at the shopping center there were there were two plugs and neither fit Chevy.  I'm sure this will get worked out with EV companies buying EV companies and and EV compnaies going bankrupt.  But heres the thing...  An ICE has one type of nozlle and I'm assuming that nozzle is exactly the same no mater where one is the world.  I can always get chemical energy delivered from the source to my vehicle.  But when it comes to EVs different story.  The electrical energy can be there in the cable, but due to the differnces in adaptors I might not be able to get that energy into my car eventhough it's right there.





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 16, 2018, 04:43:37 am
Well actually there are two types of nozzles and no fewer than five different kinds of fuel. You can also accidentally fill your car with the wrong one and destroy the engine.  :D

Yeah there's a bit hyperbole and pedantry, but as I mentioned in my post, it really isn't such a big deal particularly for L2 charging.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 04:47:53 am
Another reason EV cars won’t become mainstream is because some the them are assholes too.  I recently drove to a supermarket where they had a couple of EV charging spaces.  Signs around on on the EV charging stations clearly state, “Free EV car charging only while shopping at “Good Food” supermarket.

Similar to my EV parking spaces at hotels being parked in by ICE drivers, the EV charging spaces were being used by people working out in a gym across the street and others not shopping at the market wanting a free charge.  What’s wrong with these people?  If they did this at a gas station it would be called stealing.  But for some reason EV drivers feel they can take energy from businesses for free.

I asked an employee about it, and was told it’s turning into a big problem.  As people find businesses who have free charging they are taking advantage and “stealing” the power without shopping our supporting the business that’s giving them the “free” electricty.

The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.

In this case it’s EV drivers who are preventing the adoption of EV vehicles and installation of charging stations.
There appears to be a straightforward long term solution for this. Stores could operate these chargers as paid for chargers, and give drivers a token at the checkout to get their charge for free.

Yes they could.  But it's at an additional expense.  Yes it can be done but do you know of any commercial chargers for sale today whcih have that feature?  Or any businees who are using tokens right now?  I don't.  All fthe chargers I have seen do aren't confgured for taking tokens.  I suspect it would be very expensive to modify the existing charging stations to take tokens.  And then ther'e the cost of the ongoing maintance. 

If I were a business ower I think I would really think twice about installing and maintaing a charging station.

This is an example of the chicken and the egg where the chicken destory the egg and wonders why there aren't more chickens around.
The commercial chargers I have seen can interact with people's phones. They allow for "clubs", which either don't get charged, or have special rates. It seems unlikely they haven't provided for one off free charges through people's phones, even if they have no support for token schemes.

It's like the car and electrical industry of 100 years ago.  What do customers want.  When it comes to cars do they want External Combustion, Internal combustion or electric cars.  I think the thought at the time was External combustion would be the standard as the technology was established and had been around a long time.  The new comers were ICE and electric cars.  Completey untested and unknon technologies at the time.

And when it came to electrictiy would we use AC or DC?

All it's going to take are asshole EV drivers to keep stealing energy.  And asshole ICE drivers who park in EV spaces to not advance EV cars.  Who would buy an EV car if you can't charge it becaue some ICE car parked in the space?



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 05:02:18 am
Well actually there are two types of nozzles and no fewer than five different kinds of fuel. You can also accidentally fill your car with the wrong one and destroy the engine.  :D

Yeah there's a bit hyperbole and pedantry, but as I mentioned in my post, it really isn't such a big deal particularly for L2 charging.

Yes but at least you can get the energy into the car's storage tank before you ruin the engine.

With the different plugs the electron are right there at the tip of the charging connector and can't be transferred to the car.



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 05:28:23 am
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 16, 2018, 05:51:45 am
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.
I think you'll need to provide a much better supporting argument for such an oddball position. The supermarket offers free charging to attract customers. That's a rational marketing expenditure. The customers can't get to use those chargers, because the supermarket has issues with managing their use. In those circumstances removing them and using the marketing budget somewhere else is a rational marketing decision. Using a scheme to tie free charging to purchases is a rational marketing decision. Paying for electricity, charging stations and parking spaces to assist the businesses across the road makes no sense at all. Its bad enough that its impractical in most locations to prevent your car park being filled with the cars of non-patrons. Paying to charge those cars is just adding insult to injury.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 06:14:16 am
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.
I think you'll need to provide a much better supporting argument for such an oddball position. The supermarket offers free charging to attract customers. That's a rational marketing expenditure. The customers can't get to use those chargers, because the supermarket has issues with managing their use. In those circumstances removing them and using the marketing budget somewhere else is a rational marketing decision. Using a scheme to tie free charging to purchases is a rational marketing decision. Paying for electricity, charging stations and parking spaces to assist the businesses across the road makes no sense at all. Its bad enough that its impractical in most locations to prevent your car park being filled with the cars of non-patrons. Paying to charge those cars is just adding insult to injury.
Why is my statement oddball? You seem surprised that people are using a free charging point at a shop but don't visit that shop. That doesn't surprise me at all because that is basic human behaviour. As you wrote people park where there is space and that doesn't need to be a parking space alloted to a certain shop.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 16, 2018, 06:23:49 am
Oddball or not, you need to back your statements up, else you're not much better than someone on a street corner wearing a sandwich board proclaiming that the end is near.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 06:32:31 am
Oddball or not, you need to back your statements up, else you're not much better than someone on a street corner wearing a sandwich board proclaiming that the end is near.
I don't really see what needs to be backed up here. Again: if you put a free charger in a spot where everyone can use it then it will be used. If you only want certain people to use it then it needs some kind of access control mechanism. What is not to understand about that?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 16, 2018, 07:11:04 am
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!'
That statement, for example.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 07:17:49 am
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!'
That statement, for example.
Why else would a shop have a charging point??? Are they suddenly a gas station? It is added service like free candy for kids, free coffee, free parking space, free wifi, etc to look attractive.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 16, 2018, 07:48:50 am
Still not seeing any evidence other than "it's obvious to me".
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 08:20:07 am
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.

Yes marketing is suppose to attarck customers to shop at theeir store.  These people are taking advanatge of the store and stealing electricy to charge their car withoug even entering the store.

How long do you think a store is going to put up with people stealing from them?


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 08:42:15 am
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!'
That statement, for example.
Why else would a shop have a charging point??? Are they suddenly a gas station? It is added service like free candy for kids, free coffee, free parking space, free wifi, etc to look attractive.


It is an addesd service for customers.  You appearing to be mixing up customers with freeloaders.  To get the free candy, free cofee or free parking space requires you to be on private property and in the store shopping.  As I stated there are signs saying "Free charging while shoping at the Good Food market".  There is no sign that says free chraging for everyone.   

Don't you think if you are a quest or customers who is on private property you are obligated to abide by the property owners posted rules?
Or are you one of those people who thinks just because someone has an EV they should be able to take electricity from anyone even why you don't have permission?  If so I would like to come over to your house and plug in when my power company is charging me $0.47 kWhr to charge my car.  I would much rather have you pay for the power then pay for it myself.

Seems simple to me.  If enough free loaders steal the electricity and don't shop in the store it will be hard for the store to justify continue offering the free charging and to install free charging at any of their other stores.  The point of marketing is to attract customers.  If customers arring and find the charging spaces full everytime becuase of the freeloaders then theere's no sence in shopping at the store is there.

So getting back to the original question, When will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?   One answer could be when EV owners stop taking advantage of the generosity of business that offer free charges by stealing their electricity.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 09:23:53 am
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.

Yes marketing is suppose to attarck customers to shop at theeir store.  These people are taking advanatge of the store and stealing electricy to charge their car withoug even entering the store.

How long do you think a store is going to put up with people stealing from them?
I'm wondering: do you ever use the toilet in a restaurant, cafe, gas station, etc without buying something? Or visit a shop, look at a product but end up buying it somewhere else?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 09:45:51 am
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.

Yes marketing is suppose to attarck customers to shop at theeir store.  These people are taking advanatge of the store and stealing electricy to charge their car withoug even entering the store.

How long do you think a store is going to put up with people stealing from them?
I'm wondering: do you ever use the toilet in a restaurant, cafe, gas station, etc without buying something? Or visit a shop, look at a product but end up buying it somewhere else?

Parking in an EV space for hours and using someone else’s electricty to charge an EV when there’s a sign that says “For Customers use Ony while shopping in the store” isn’t exactly the same thing as use the toilet in a restaurant, cafe, gas station, etc without buying something is it?  It would be more akin to taking a dump in the parking lot without even entering the store or offering to clean it up.  But takining a cup is a bodly function.  Charing an electric car for free is a luxury. 

Bottom line.  If people take you attitude and steal electricty to charger their EV, no one iOS going to offer free charging anymore. And there will be less charging stations.  Exactly opposite to spread the adoption of EV.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 10:11:30 am
And yet there is no difference between using the toilet without buying anything and charging an EV without buying anything. Both cost money to the owner so why should they (toilet or EV charger) be treated differently? IMHO it is just a matter of what you are used to to get for free.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 12:02:17 pm
And yet there is no difference between using the toilet without buying anything and charging an EV without buying anything. Both cost money to the owner so why should they (toilet or EV charger) be treated differently? IMHO it is just a matter of what you are used to to get for free.

Really?  You don’t see the difference between a homeless person taking two hours in a business’s restroom vs. a customer who needs to use the restroom for a few minutes but can’t because the homeless guy is taking a bath in it.

You need to come to California.  Many businesses and customers of those business do not like it a freeloader is taking hogging the restroom for two hours so paying customers can’t use it.  Businesses here in California had signs saying restrooms are for customers only.   Just like the supermarket that had a sign saying EV charging is for customers only.

Non-customers abused the privilege so now many places which once had restrooms customers could use have closed them.  So now freeloaders and customers have no place to go.

Think about it for a moment if you had a shop with a restroom which was for customers only.  Would you like it if every time you or a paying customer needed to go there was a homeless person in it?

This is happening in California.  Cities are responding by installing port-a-potties for people for people to use.  And test the homeless who don’t pay any taxes either spend hours in them or in some cases have moved in and use it as their home.

Don’t you think business that get taken advantages of by EV drivers who just rip them off wlll like they did for restrooms just not offer them anymore?  With less EV charging stations there will be less places for EV driver to get a charge. 

You never answered my question.  Can I come over to your house an charge my car?  And at night don’t you leave some lights on?  Would you mind if some homeless people can and sat on your front poach to read the newspaper at night from your “free” light?






Well






Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 16, 2018, 04:37:00 pm
If it's not so they can look "Green" why don't they offer free petrol/diesel for customers?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 07:16:05 pm
And yet there is no difference between using the toilet without buying anything and charging an EV without buying anything. Both cost money to the owner so why should they (toilet or EV charger) be treated differently? IMHO it is just a matter of what you are used to to get for free.
Really?  You don’t see the difference between a homeless person taking two hours in a business’s restroom vs. a customer who needs to use the restroom for a few minutes but can’t because the homeless guy is taking a bath in it.
From your previous post I got the impression that it is OK for you to use restroom without buying something but it is not OK to charge an EV without buying something. Perhaps that impression is wrong.

Sure the homeless guy taking a bath is similar to someone leaving the EV there to charge all day and are obviously freeloading (and shops should take action). But if you look at using the restroom for a couple of minutes and parking for (say) an hour then these situations are quite normal behaviour.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 16, 2018, 09:11:32 pm
And yet there is no difference between using the toilet without buying anything and charging an EV without buying anything. Both cost money to the owner so why should they (toilet or EV charger) be treated differently? IMHO it is just a matter of what you are used to to get for free.
Really?  You don’t see the difference between a homeless person taking two hours in a business’s restroom vs. a customer who needs to use the restroom for a few minutes but can’t because the homeless guy is taking a bath in it.
From your previous post I got the impression that it is OK for you to use restroom without buying something but it is not OK to charge an EV without buying something. Perhaps that impression is wrong.

There's a tiny difference: People don't lock the toilet door from the outside then go off to the gym for a couple of hours.

(although there are other ways to leave a restroom unusable)

Solution: Smarter chargers.

Make all cars have an ID which they need to transmit to the charger (they probably already do) and make it easy for stores to ban certain cars from chargers (eg. if you don't scan a QR code from the store before unplugging your car or if you leave it there for much longer than the time it takes to go to the store and back).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 16, 2018, 09:59:23 pm
A local Asda had to start charging for parking because the store is close to the train station, so commuters filled it at 8am and kept it full till 6pm.

So they charge for parking, however on checking out at the till they ask you for the parking ticket which they refund.

if they put a QR code on the parking ticket it might discourage people from charging without using the shop.

Of course over here (Northern Ireland) their penalty charges for parking on their land cannot be up held.  As opposed to the rest of the UK the implied contract entered into by parking on private land has to be with an named individual, not an entity like "Registered Keeper", the later is all they can get from the number plate, so courts do not accept disputes over failure to pay them unless they have evidence as to who was driving the car at the time the contract was entered into.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 05:29:49 am
<snipped out ICEing description>
What’s the etiquette here?
In a number of states (WA and CA, maybe others), you will get a fine for parking in EV charging slots. $124 in WA. Enforcement requires reporting them which I do though it seems like it's about 50/50 that a cop will show up. If it's not a public lot, a lot of us complain to the management. In a number of places that has resulted in traffic cones being put in the charging spaces while not in use.  Works surprisingly well.  A number of EV owners carry pre-printed notes to put on ICEers' cars. We also have several Facebook groups where pictures of the ICEer cars with license plate showing get posted. Doubt it does much other than keep us EVers agitated and vigilant! :-)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 17, 2018, 06:18:40 am
Quote
Electricity distribution networks in Europe run at well below their full potential [...]. The findings show that the unused network capacity could be utilised for charging electric vehicles with little or no need for additional capacity. [...] All consumers, not just those with EVs, would benefit from spreading the costs of existing infrastructure over more load and minimising risky new investment. [...] The results suggest that these systems are operating at 50-70% of their potential. To place this in perspective, all current light-duty vehicles could be electrified with little or no need for additional network capacity.

http://energypost.eu/new-research-europes-electricity-networks-are-underused-and-have-ample-capacity-to-cope-with-electrification-of-cars/ (http://energypost.eu/new-research-europes-electricity-networks-are-underused-and-have-ample-capacity-to-cope-with-electrification-of-cars/)
If you have actually read the article it says that for this to work the EV's charging times would need to be regulated from a central point. Actually the article supports the point made earlier (complete with numbers so no guessing)  that electrical distribution grids are not up to the task of charging large amounts of EVs in their current state:


Shifting EV charging to periods when existing resources are readily available would keep incremental investment in infrastructure to a minimum

An article in the Dutch news said that the grid needs to be expanded to deal with the electricity from solar panels. That sounds way more like real news to me.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 17, 2018, 06:27:33 am
<snipped out ICEing description>
What’s the etiquette here?
In a number of states (WA and CA, maybe others), you will get a fine for parking in EV charging slots. $124 in WA. Enforcement requires reporting them which I do though it seems like it's about 50/50 that a cop will show up. If it's not a public lot, a lot of us complain to the management. In a number of places that has resulted in traffic cones being put in the charging spaces while not in use.  Works surprisingly well.  A number of EV owners carry pre-printed notes to put on ICEers' cars. We also have several Facebook groups where pictures of the ICEer cars with license plate showing get posted. Doubt it does much other than keep us EVers agitated and vigilant! :-)

Funny you mention Wa.  I was just there last month for 5 days.  There was construction on the street and it was lined with no parking/stopping any time  / tow away signs.  Traffic was a mess and the police were called every day.  And every day they refused to cite or tow the cars which were illegally parked.

EV car owners get picked on by ICE drivers.  I’ve heard cases of charger plugs getting cut off.  And now we have EV car owners who are taking advantage and running charging for other EV car owners.

When will EV cars become main stream?  When EV car owners stop taking advantage of the business who are trying to help them.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 07:14:23 am
On the subject of charging standards. There are effectively 4 "standards": Tesla, ChaDeMo, CCS and J1772 (Level 2). There are others but not a lot of backing. There is a Chinese standard as well though I don't know what's going on with it. And of course, most EVs have adapters that allow use of standard electrical outlets.

Telsa, being very early had no agreed upon standard for DC charging so they created their own.  The manufacturer standards bodies deliberately ignored Tesla and created two competing ones - CCS and ChaDeMo.  Tesla has an adaptor for chademo and J1772. I believe one for CCS is on the way.  The problem with CCS in the US is a large percentage are at auto-dealers which is about the last place anyone would want to go to charge their car.  This is to a lesser extent also true of chademo.  There does seem to be a trend towards dual CCS/chademo chargers, so the issue of finding a compatible charger may go away. What I find hilarious is that chademo and ccs are big clunky industrial looking connectors while tesla is small and sleek clearly designed for the consumer. It kind of looks like a gas/petrol nozzle. I have no idea who or what was the target user of chademo or ccs.

What I also find striking is that only Tesla has a planned out charging network.  I believe this is one of the reasons Tesla still outsells other battery only EVs.

Also, you should use the PlugShare ap on your smart phone to find a compatible charger.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 17, 2018, 07:23:11 am
If BetaMax/VHS is anything to go by, they will pick the cheapest, most profitably to manufacture, but worst functional version and stick with it.  So put your bets on the worst one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 17, 2018, 07:41:15 am
On the subject of charging standards. There are effectively 4 "standards": Tesla, ChaDeMo, CCS and J1772 (Level 2). There are others but not a lot of backing. There is a Chinese standard as well though I don't know what's going on with it. And of course, most EVs have adapters that allow use of standard electrical outlets.

Telsa, being very early had no agreed upon standard for DC charging so they created their own.  The manufacturer standards bodies deliberately ignored Tesla and created two competing ones - CCS and ChaDeMo.  Tesla has an adaptor for chademo and J1772. I believe one for CCS is on the way.  The problem with CCS in the US is a large percentage are at auto-dealers which is about the last place anyone would want to go to charge their car.  This is to a lesser extent also true of chademo.  There does seem to be a trend towards dual CCS/chademo chargers, so the issue of finding a compatible charger may go away. What I find hilarious is that chademo and ccs are big clunky industrial looking connectors while tesla is small and sleek clearly designed for the consumer. It kind of looks like a gas/petrol nozzle. I have no idea who or what was the target user of chademo or ccs.

What I also find striking is that only Tesla has a planned out charging network.  I believe this is one of the reasons Tesla still outsells other battery only EVs.

Also, you should use the PlugShare ap on your smart phone to find a compatible charger.

Thanks, this is very helpful. 

I have and use PlugShare.  I'd give it 2.5 stars.  The informaiton is not always correct and lots of key information is missing.  And I don't think PugShare has all charging stations so that mean one has to use multiple apps.....  Oh and that's another reason EV cars won't be mainstream, you have to have a smartphone.  And it can't be just any smartphone either.  The smartphone has to be running the OS the app was writen for.

One would think this would be a perfect add on for Google Maps.


If I have a Volt, can I get one of those adapters which would allow me to use a Tesla carging station?









Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 08:09:08 am
Wow, reading this thread you would think there is a war going out there. People stealing electricity, anti EVers vandalizing infrastructure,...

That is not even close to what I see. Both my wife and I drive EVs - I've had mine since 2013 and She got hers late 2016.  Between the two of us, we've had maybe 3 incidents and they were minor comments. Contrast that with a huge number of very positive comments and lots of questions. I've never seen or heard of a charger that was vandalized, never had violence threatened. The only issue is ICEing chargers that I pointed out earlier and it's not a huge issue in general.  Only at poorly sited chargers.

As to stealing electricity, most, if not all, of the "customer use only" chargers for specific businesses I'm familiar with would be very hard to freeload on. They are usually at hotels or restaurants in a location such that it would be pretty obvious.  Plus most lots have signs that say "customer use only, all others towed" or similar. Those businesses see EVers as a very desirable demographic.  It's definitely not greenwashing because for the most part they don't advertise it. There are lots of shopping centers in the US that have chargers. Someone could freeload on those but we aren't talking about a lot of money here.  My Tesla max charge is 85 KWh.  At the average national rate, that's a bit over $9 and 4 hrs to fully charge on the typical free charger. Explain to me why there would be hordes of freeloaders? It would be incredibly inconvenient to drive to the mall, plug in and wait around for hours (not purchasing any goods or services) just to get a couple of dollars worth of free power. That dog don't hunt.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 17, 2018, 08:10:37 am
What I also find striking is that only Tesla has a planned out charging network.  I believe this is one of the reasons Tesla still outsells other battery only EVs.
Compared to other manufacturers individually yes but their total market share is not so big and the competition is not far behind:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/)

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/ (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)
What is interesting about the numbers from these websites is that EVs are booming in China.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 17, 2018, 08:12:54 am
Question to EV users.  What is stopping me from unplugging your charging cord if you leave it unattended?  Do they lock?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 08:17:25 am
I have and use PlugShare.  I'd give it 2.5 stars.  The informaiton is not always correct and lots of key information is missing.  And I don't think PugShare has all charging stations so that mean one has to use multiple apps.....  Oh and that's another reason EV cars won't be mainstream, you have to have a smartphone.  And it can't be just any smartphone either.  The smartphone has to be running the OS the app was writen for.

One would think this would be a perfect add on for Google Maps.


If I have a Volt, can I get one of those adapters which would allow me to use a Tesla carging station?

Yeah, having charger locations on google maps would be great.  I've not had any problems with plugshare and use it fairly regularly. The app has one annoying flaw in that it's really hard to get to the charging reports. Once you find it, there is a lot of good info from other users. In particular, you can see how many charging failures there were.

You never know about an adapter for the tesla plug. Doubt it's a high priority for Elon.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 08:17:56 am
Question to EV users.  What is stopping me from unplugging your charging cord if you leave it unattended?  Do they lock?
Some do. Some don't.  Typically you can unplug intermediate adapters. Chademos you can stop.  But it's not a problem. You should get notification that your charge stopped on the app.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 08:30:35 am
What I also find striking is that only Tesla has a planned out charging network.  I believe this is one of the reasons Tesla still outsells other battery only EVs.
Compared to other manufacturers individually yes but their total market share is not so big and the competition is not far behind:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/)

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/ (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)
What is interesting about the numbers from these websites is that EVs are booming in China.

Yes, china is booming.

As to network competition - lots of talk but not one competitor has done anything. Frankly, I expected at least one manufacturer to be starting to roll something out in 2018 but looks like they just don't understand the network effect.

As to competitive cars. Again, lots of talk but only feeble responses. I have yet to see a car close to entering manufacturing that looks like a real threat to Tesla. I thought the Bolt had potential but it just hasn't caught on for what ever reason. Right now, Tesla's biggest threat is themselves. They have a huge order list and are struggling to ramp production. If a sexy competitive car got released, they would be in real trouble. Maybe a "Bolt GT" or some such. Still, they are way ahead of everyone else.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 17, 2018, 03:09:10 pm
As to competitive cars. Again, lots of talk but only feeble responses. I have yet to see a car close to entering manufacturing that looks like a real threat to Tesla. I thought the Bolt had potential but it just hasn't caught on for what ever reason. Right now, Tesla's biggest threat is themselves. They have a huge order list and are struggling to ramp production. If a sexy competitive car got released, they would be in real trouble. Maybe a "Bolt GT" or some such. Still, they are way ahead of everyone else.
The Bolt and Nissan Leaf both have looks only their mothers would love (though the 2018 Leaf is kinda nice). GM seems to do very little to actually market the Bolt. Dealerships often have exactly one salesperson who knows anything about them, and even they end up doing things like offering free oil changes. ::) There are rumors that GM is planning a dual motor version with a bigger battery, but no official word.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: poorchava on April 17, 2018, 03:35:01 pm
Unless they come up with a way to charge up the battery in 5 minutes - it's not gonna fly. In many countries the predominant form of housing are all sorts of apartament buildings, often without any form of garage (people just keep their cars parked on the street). So no charging overnight. Many companies do not have big parking lots, so people park on the streets too. No charging either. So they'd have to spend some hours every other day (depending on the commute distance) to wait for their car to charge up. No thanks. With battery powered tools, there are rechangeable batteries for that exact reason. To not put you in a position where u need to do something, but you have to wait for the damn thing to charge. Wealthy people will often live in a house or an apartement building with a parking spot, where they can charge their cars - that's true, but if it's supposed to be something that masses can use - no go.

Car's a tool. It's supposed to work.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 18, 2018, 12:24:33 am
What I also find striking is that only Tesla has a planned out charging network.  I believe this is one of the reasons Tesla still outsells other battery only EVs.
Compared to other manufacturers individually yes but their total market share is not so big and the competition is not far behind:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/)

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/ (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)
What is interesting about the numbers from these websites is that EVs are booming in China.

Yes, china is booming.

As to network competition - lots of talk but not one competitor has done anything. Frankly, I expected at least one manufacturer to be starting to roll something out in 2018 but looks like they just don't understand the network effect.

As to competitive cars. Again, lots of talk but only feeble responses. I have yet to see a car close to entering manufacturing that looks like a real threat to Tesla. I thought the Bolt had potential but it just hasn't caught on for what ever reason. Right now, Tesla's biggest threat is themselves. They have a huge order list and are struggling to ramp production. If a sexy competitive car got released, they would be in real trouble. Maybe a "Bolt GT" or some such. Still, they are way ahead of everyone else.
Only Tesla seems to think a vendor run charging network makes sense. Everyone else realises that charging has to come down to a common infrastructure, like every gas station being compatible with the tank filling port on every make of car. Where I live there are lots of places around the town to charge a car. For example, supermarket and retail park car parks mostly have a few charging points. I can't remember seeing a Tesla charger, though.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 18, 2018, 02:45:51 am
Wow, reading this thread you would think there is a war going out there. People stealing electricity, anti EVers vandalizing infrastructure,...

That is not even close to what I see. Both my wife and I drive EVs - I've had mine since 2013 and She got hers late 2016.  Between the two of us, we've had maybe 3 incidents and they were minor comments. Contrast that with a huge number of very positive comments and lots of questions. I've never seen or heard of a charger that was vandalized, never had violence threatened. The only issue is ICEing chargers that I pointed out earlier and it's not a huge issue in general.  Only at poorly sited chargers.

As to stealing electricity, most, if not all, of the "customer use only" chargers for specific businesses I'm familiar with would be very hard to freeload on. They are usually at hotels or restaurants in a location such that it would be pretty obvious.  Plus most lots have signs that say "customer use only, all others towed" or similar. Those businesses see EVers as a very desirable demographic.  It's definitely not greenwashing because for the most part they don't advertise it. There are lots of shopping centers in the US that have chargers. Someone could freeload on those but we aren't talking about a lot of money here.  My Tesla max charge is 85 KWh.  At the average national rate, that's a bit over $9 and 4 hrs to fully charge on the typical free charger. Explain to me why there would be hordes of freeloaders? It would be incredibly inconvenient to drive to the mall, plug in and wait around for hours (not purchasing any goods or services) just to get a couple of dollars worth of free power. That dog don't hunt.

Interesting you have had three incidents. 
Charging cords have been cut in Florida and California by neighbors in housing complexes who think EV drivers are getting free electricty.  They aren’t as they are paying there portion of the electric bill.

In California EV drivers are ripping off business, specifically super markets and hotels which offer free charging while shopping or staying in the hotel.  What freeloading EV drivers are doing is using the store or hotel’s EV charger while they are at the gym across the street, at the movie theater down the street or at work.  They don’t shop in the store or stay at the hotel.  They see free charging but disregard the sign that says only while shopping at our store or staying in our hotel.

After this happened to me twice in one month I’m starting to watch for it.  I’ve had my EV car for over a year and never noticed this before.  I think this is becoming more prevelinet as more people in California purchase EVs.  And then ICE drivers I guess are parking in EV spaces to prevent charging as a way of saying screw you for having an electric car.  I’ve not been able to charge because of this once in the past year.

EV cars and EV charging is tuning into an interesting social experiment.  It’s going to be interesting how it plays out.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 18, 2018, 03:05:44 am
I think the solution for powering EV cars will be what Ford came up with the Nucleon.  Car gets 5,000 miles before it needs to be recharged and emits no greenhouse gasses or any other pollutants while being driven. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 18, 2018, 04:51:47 am
Only Tesla seems to think a vendor run charging network makes sense. Everyone else realises that charging has to come down to a common infrastructure, like every gas station being compatible with the tank filling port on every make of car. Where I live there are lots of places around the town to charge a car. For example, supermarket and retail park car parks mostly have a few charging points. I can't remember seeing a Tesla charger, though.
Hmmm, and you discount the possibility of the network being a factor in Tesla outselling other BEVs?

You don't see the chargers because they aren't terribly obvious. The brown markers are superchargers, the green are Tesla outlets at destinations.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 18, 2018, 04:58:09 am
Unless they come up with a way to charge up the battery in 5 minutes - it's not gonna fly. In many countries the predominant form of housing are all sorts of apartament buildings, often without any form of garage (people just keep their cars parked on the street). So no charging overnight. Many companies do not have big parking lots, so people park on the streets too. No charging either. So they'd have to spend some hours every other day (depending on the commute distance) to wait for their car to charge up. No thanks. With battery powered tools, there are rechangeable batteries for that exact reason. To not put you in a position where u need to do something, but you have to wait for the damn thing to charge. Wealthy people will often live in a house or an apartement building with a parking spot, where they can charge their cars - that's true, but if it's supposed to be something that masses can use - no go.

Car's a tool. It's supposed to work.

meh. heard this before. Filling Station mentality. I won't make a change if I have to ANYTHING differently. The world is changing, get used to it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 18, 2018, 05:09:03 am
The world is changing, get used to it.

Progress is not assured, you have to make realistic plans and carry them forward without hopeful thinking.

If you try to use the state to force the poor into electric cars while the rich just use it as a second car and use fossil when convenient (very often once the novelty of value signalling is gone, plus the many rich who get a kick from signalling opulence). You're going to see a change you will not like.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 18, 2018, 06:07:31 am
Only Tesla seems to think a vendor run charging network makes sense. Everyone else realises that charging has to come down to a common infrastructure, like every gas station being compatible with the tank filling port on every make of car. Where I live there are lots of places around the town to charge a car. For example, supermarket and retail park car parks mostly have a few charging points. I can't remember seeing a Tesla charger, though.
Hmmm, and you discount the possibility of the network being a factor in Tesla outselling other BEVs?

You don't see the chargers because they aren't terribly obvious. The brown markers are superchargers, the green are Tesla outlets at destinations.
The Leaf is fairly common in the UK, but Teslas are rare. Tesla lists 47 working superchargers across the entire UK. The nearest is about 20 miles from our home. On the other hand I can charge any electric car with non-Tesla chargers in many convenient places around most urban areas, like supermarkets, retail parks, and park and ride centres. These are the bulk of the locations on the plugshare map you posted. Most of the free to use chargers are not fast chargers, but some of those at bigger locations, like park and ride centres, offer fast charging. These non-Tesla site are really making EVs practical for lots of people. The Tesla network doesn't really add to the attraction of buying a Tesla at all.

Recent figures for the UK say there are 4300 public EV charging sites in the UK, offering 12500 charging ports. If I choose a Tesla over an another make of car it looks like I increase my 4300 choices of charging site by 47 supercharger locations.  :)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 18, 2018, 07:40:09 am
Those 47 super chargers (you ignored the much larger number of tesla "wall" chargers) are sited to support long distance travel (near motorways) and charging at high speed.  How many of those 4300 sites are similarly sited and have high speed charging?  The point a lot of people are missing is that the Supercharger network is set up to make long distance EV travel work. I know in the US, long distance travel in any EV other than a Tesla is hard, if not impossible. Would be surprised if the the UK and continental Europe were different.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: poorchava on April 18, 2018, 07:51:22 am
Unless they come up with a way to charge up the battery in 5 minutes - it's not gonna fly. In many countries the predominant form of housing are all sorts of apartament buildings, often without any form of garage (people just keep their cars parked on the street). So no charging overnight. Many companies do not have big parking lots, so people park on the streets too. No charging either. So they'd have to spend some hours every other day (depending on the commute distance) to wait for their car to charge up. No thanks. With battery powered tools, there are rechangeable batteries for that exact reason. To not put you in a position where u need to do something, but you have to wait for the damn thing to charge. Wealthy people will often live in a house or an apartement building with a parking spot, where they can charge their cars - that's true, but if it's supposed to be something that masses can use - no go.

Car's a tool. It's supposed to work.

meh. heard this before. Filling Station mentality. I won't make a change if I have to ANYTHING differently. The world is changing, get used to it.

It's not that, but rather: I'm not gonna make a change if the result is less convenient and functional than the current way the things are done.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 18, 2018, 07:57:34 am
Those 47 super chargers (you ignored the much larger number of tesla "wall" chargers) are sited to support long distance travel (near motorways) and charging at high speed.  How many of those 4300 sites are similarly sited and have high speed charging?  The point a lot of people are missing is that the Supercharger network is set up to make long distance EV travel work. I know in the US, long distance travel in any EV other than a Tesla is hard, if not impossible. Would be surprised if the the UK and continental Europe were different.
By wall chargers I assume you mean home chargers. Those seem irrelevant to the discussion. Who has an electric car and no home charger? Leaf owners in the UK seem to do OK on long journeys, as long as they plan properly. There are quite a few public chargers that will charge as fast as the car permits.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 18, 2018, 08:40:27 am
No, that doesn't list home chargers.  Those are at restaurants, hotels, ...  Several of the hotels I stayed at in Scotland last year had Tesla wall chargers. The one in Inverness had 3.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 18, 2018, 09:12:00 am
It's not that, but rather: I'm not gonna make a change if the result is less convenient and functional than the current way the things are done.

For anyone with a garage or dedicated parking space where you can set up a charger, the net change in convenience is very positive.  Long distance travel is typically the exception. For most EVers, it takes less than a minute to plug/unplug for a once a week charging session. Compared to 15-20 minutes to go the the gas/petrol station and gas up once a week, the net benefit outside of long distance travel is huge.

For those that don't have dedicated parking with chargers, shopping areas and places of employment with chargers can gain benefits similar to a dedicate charging space. Overlapping charging with shopping or dining helps.  It's not perfect and does require some behavioral and infrastructure change to increase adoption. But I don't understand why people seem to think that's a reason to say EVs are a stupid idea.

And by the way. There are other ways they save you time. With EVs, no oil changes are required, no tune-ups needed. The only fluid needing regular replacement is windshield wiper fluid. Because of regen, brakes last 50K miles/80Km. Once a year checkup. So, they save a lot of maintenance time and cost.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 18, 2018, 12:43:34 pm

Progress is not assured, you have to make realistic plans and carry them forward without hopeful thinking.

If you try to use the state to force the poor into electric cars while the rich just use it as a second car and use fossil when convenient (very often once the novelty of value signalling is gone, plus the many rich who get a kick from signalling opulence). You're going to see a change you will not like.

Who's trying to force anyone? Encourage yes, but only because it's obvious that a lot of people write off the whole idea of an EV without even stopping to think of the "problems" they think of are really an issue for them. For some they are, for many they aren't. EVs are not for everyone, they're not the best tool for every job, but for many people they're the best tool for that particular person's needs. For those whose lifestyle and living situation is not a good fit for an EV, conventional cars will be around for the foreseeable future. I'm not trying to convince anyone without private parking to get an EV, but there are millions of people who have private parking, a modest commute and in many cases even a second or third car in the household who still come up with the same bogus excuses of why an EV wouldn't work for them.

I'm a big fan of older cars so I have not seriously considered an EV, but man, if I could just plug in each night when I get home and never have to go to a gas station again that would be awesome, it's such a hugely compelling convenience that I have trouble understanding why anyone who has private parking would consider it a detriment rather than a feature to just be able to plug in the car each night like they already do with their phone. Have a full "tank" every morning with almost zero effort.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 18, 2018, 01:21:55 pm
I imagine that if internet forums existed 100 years ago, the exact same analagous debate, with analgous arguments one each side, would have occured on the topic “When will automobiles become mainstream”.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 18, 2018, 01:48:55 pm
I imagine that if internet forums existed 100 years ago, the exact same analagous debate, with analgous arguments one each side, would have occured on the topic “When will automobiles become mainstream”.

It only took 2 years for New York city to be 99.999% horse driven to 99.9999% ICE.  That was in 1912.  People were tired walking though horse poop that could be 3 feet thick on some days.  And any idea how much horse urine there was?  60, 000 gallons.  If I'm not mistaken in 1920 New York on a daily bases had to deal with 2,500,000 pounds of horse poop.  Average life expentancey of a working horse was three years.  They would drop dead on the street and left to rot for days. Similar story every other city in the world.

Simiar story in London with the "Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894".
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/ (https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/)

Haven't we already seen some cities ban smelly diesel trucks during certain hours so shoppers would not be exposed to diesel fumes? 




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 19, 2018, 10:24:21 am
I imagine that if internet forums existed 100 years ago, the exact same analagous debate, with analgous arguments one each side, would have occured on the topic “When will automobiles become mainstream”.

It only took 2 years for New York city to be 99.999% horse driven to 99.9999% ICE.  That was in 1912.  People were tired walking though horse poop that could be 3 feet thick on some days.  And any idea how much horse urine there was?  60, 000 gallons.  If I'm not mistaken in 1920 New York on a daily bases had to deal with 2,500,000 pounds of horse poop.  Average life expentancey of a working horse was three years.  They would drop dead on the street and left to rot for days. Similar story every other city in the world.

Simiar story in London with the "Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894".
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/ (https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/)

Haven't we already seen some cities ban smelly diesel trucks during certain hours so shoppers would not be exposed to diesel fumes?

Well in 1920, according to your numbers, there weren't very many horses in NYC.  But your point about there being a tipping point with a high Q rings true. 

But there was a lot of resistance to transitioning from horse to automobile throughout the US. Keeping a horse was labor intensive, it could only go so far before needing a rest, you had to feed it even if you didn't ride it and the manure needed to be dealt with on a regular basis. But even with all the benefits of auto ownership, people resisted. So, I don't find it surprising that people resist EVs.

Perhaps the bigger question is will people actually own cars in 50 years?  Or will we have massive fleets of self driving Uber cars.  All EVs, of course.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 19, 2018, 10:28:52 am
Perhaps the bigger question is will people actually own cars in 50 years?  Or will we have massive fleets of self driving Uber cars.  All EVs, of course.

Or we'll be back to horses.  I put the odds at 50/50  EVs versus Horses. :o
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: vk6zgo on April 19, 2018, 10:49:08 am
I imagine that if internet forums existed 100 years ago, the exact same analagous debate, with analgous arguments one each side, would have occured on the topic “When will automobiles become mainstream”.

It only took 2 years for New York city to be 99.999% horse driven to 99.9999% ICE.  That was in 1912.  People were tired walking though horse poop that could be 3 feet thick on some days.  And any idea how much horse urine there was?  60, 000 gallons.  If I'm not mistaken in 1920 New York on a daily bases had to deal with 2,500,000 pounds of horse poop.  Average life expentancey of a working horse was three years.  They would drop dead on the street and left to rot for days. Similar story every other city in the world.

Simiar story in London with the "Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894".
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/ (https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/)

Haven't we already seen some cities ban smelly diesel trucks during certain hours so shoppers would not be exposed to diesel fumes?

Well in 1920, according to your numbers, there weren't very many horses in NYC.  But your point about there being a tipping point with a high Q rings true. 

But there was a lot of resistance to transitioning from horse to automobile throughout the US. Keeping a horse was labor intensive, it could only go so far before needing a rest, you had to feed it even if you didn't ride it and the manure needed to be dealt with on a regular basis. But even with all the benefits of auto ownership, people resisted. So, I don't find it surprising that people resist EVs.

Perhaps the bigger question is will people actually own cars in 50 years?  Or will we have massive fleets of self driving Uber cars.  All EVs, of course.

If you lived on a farm, "fuel" for your horse was, for much of the year, free.
Most people didn't travel really long distances, & when they did, scheduled their trip so the horse & owner could "recharge" overnight.

At least in Australia, the Great Economic Depression put a serious kink in the take up of cars as horse replacements.
This was followed at breakneck speed by WW2, when fuel was rationed.
Some cars had charcoal burning "gas producers" fitted, others were used very sparingly, with many garaged "for the duration", with their owners reverting to public transport, bicycles, &, yes, horses.

Hell, we had a horse & cart when I was a kid in the early 1950s, being one family of several in our small town who did this.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 19, 2018, 04:37:31 pm
I think you are mixing up the confidence of a modern car with what a pain in the ass it was to own a car over 100 years ago.  Remember 100 year ago customers had a choice between electric cars, Internal combustion engines and external combustion engines, steam).  I believe the odds on favorite was ECE/steam as that was a trusted and proven technology at the time.  Steam powered machines were wide spread use and ICE and electric were the new fangeled unproven technology.  As oil was refined gasoline was considered a waste product and barrels of it were poured into streams to get rid of it.

Folks who could afford to purchase cars also had to employee a chauffeur/mechanic to keep the thing running.  Cars then were very temperamental and were always in need of adjusting. 

And let’s not forget there were no gas stations 100 years ago.  If one needed gasoline they purchased it at a there local drug store.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 20, 2018, 02:07:23 am
I think you are mixing up the confidence of a modern car with what a pain in the ass it was to own a car over 100 years ago.  Remember 100 year ago customers had a choice between electric cars, Internal combustion engines and external combustion engines, steam).  I believe the odds on favorite was ECE/steam as that was a trusted and proven technology at the time.  Steam powered machines were wide spread use and ICE and electric were the new fangeled unproven technology.  As oil was refined gasoline was considered a waste product and barrels of it were poured into streams to get rid of it.

Folks who could afford to purchase cars also had to employee a chauffeur/mechanic to keep the thing running.  Cars then were very temperamental and were always in need of adjusting. 

And let’s not forget there were no gas stations 100 years ago.  If one needed gasoline they purchased it at a there local drug store.
I don't think so. 

While really early ICE cars were the province of the rich or tinkerers, the Model T was a breakthrough, especially with the introduction of the electric starter in 1919. It was inexpensive, relatively reliable and easy to fix. They "flew off the shelves" - there was huge demand. In 1920 Ford cut the price to $395 and sold 1.4M of them. Cumulative number of Model Ts sold from 1909 through 1920 was 4.6M. The population of the US at that time was a bit more than 100M. There were about 23M families at that point - almost 1 family in 5 had a Ford Model T.

Steam was a problem because you had to fire it up well before you left whereas the ICEs of the day, with an electric starter, took just a few minutes to get ready. While steam autos may have out numbered ICE autos early on, it was on very small numbers. Wikipedia says:  In the U.S. in 1902, 485 of 909 new car registrations were steamers. However, by 1910 only a handful of steamer companies were left. One of which was Stanley - Wikipedia says: Production rose to 500 cars in 1917. Ford that same year: 375K. White was probably the leading manufacturer and built a total of about 10K, ending production in 1912.

Electric was a non-starter due to poor battery capacity and weight . Also limited electrification restricted where they could go - in 1921, a little more than half the population of the US had electricity.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: bicycleguy on April 20, 2018, 03:12:26 am
There was lots of discussion a while back about the effect on the grid of EV's.
Here's some actual data of power consumption before and after my Chevy Spark electric.

'Electric Use.png' shows I've been collecting data for a while.  You can see in May 2015 when I first got the car I went nuts driving .
I''m in Southern California, no home air conditioning, so winter actually uses more power than summer for the fan on the gas forced air heating.

'Elec b4 after.png' re-arranges the data to see the delta better.  Looks like maybe 50KWH/month more, 50/360 = 14% increase.  All charging at night, only driving about 600mile/month.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 20, 2018, 04:42:59 am
Hmmm, what's your spark's WH per mile? doing the math (50KWh/600) I get 83 wh/mi. Seems kind of low, was expecting something in the 200-250 range.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: bicycleguy on April 20, 2018, 05:20:33 am
Hmmm, what's your spark's WH per mile? doing the math (50KWh/600) I get 83 wh/mi. Seems kind of low, was expecting something in the 200-250 range.

Yah, that looks weird.  Must be my home efficiency upgrades, my daughter moving out and a more efficient computer to read these blogs  |O has skewed the data.

So I have car-charger only data from my kit built, OpenEVSE which records very accurate kWH.  It works out to 233Wh/mile or 4.3mile/kWH, which better agrees with the cars onboard display of ~5mile/kWH(driving only, no charging).

thanks
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 20, 2018, 05:24:56 am
Hmmm, what's your spark's WH per mile? doing the math (50KWh/600) I get 83 wh/mi. Seems kind of low, was expecting something in the 200-250 range.

Yah, that looks weird.  Must be my home efficiency upgrades, my daughter moving out and a more efficient computer to read these blogs  |O has skewed the data.

So I have car-charger only data from my kit built, OpenEVSE which records very accurate kWH.  It works out to 233Wh/mile or 4.3mile/kWH, which better agrees with the cars onboard display of ~5mile/kWH(driving only, no charging).

thanks
Its a pity that visible energy metering isn't a standard function in EV chargers. I think you'll find some kind of reasonably accurate power/energy monitoring in most of them, but its buried and only used to manage the load.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 20, 2018, 07:03:04 am
233 including charger efficiency is pretty good. At the average national rate of 11.7 cents/kwh thats 2.7 cents per mile. Though, you probably pay a bit more than that for your electricity.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 20, 2018, 04:00:34 pm
Perhaps the bigger question is will people actually own cars in 50 years?  Or will we have massive fleets of self driving Uber cars.  All EVs, of course.

Or we'll be back to horses.  I put the odds at 50/50  EVs versus Horses. :o

Self driving horses?  :D


Its a pity that visible energy metering isn't a standard function in EV chargers. I think you'll find some kind of reasonably accurate power/energy monitoring in most of them, but its buried and only used to manage the load.

Open EVSE has it, as does the Juicebox Pro. Juicebox lets you show plots of energy vs time, and download csv files of the data as well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Miyuki on April 20, 2018, 06:54:53 pm

Self driving horses?  :D


horses have pretty good self driving features and also automatic braking  ;D
and they can bring you home from pub even if you are a bag of potatoes  8)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 20, 2018, 08:02:45 pm

Self driving horses?  :D


horses have pretty good self driving features and also automatic braking  ;D
and they can bring you home from pub even if you are a bag of potatoes  8)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO7XY8vIN0w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO7XY8vIN0w)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 20, 2018, 08:34:21 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO7XY8vIN0w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO7XY8vIN0w)

More intelligent than the right hand lane hoggers round here!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on April 20, 2018, 08:44:51 pm
The intelligent part of that vehicle was obviously the dog. 🐕
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 21, 2018, 01:44:08 am
I think you are mixing up the confidence of a modern car with what a pain in the ass it was to own a car over 100 years ago.  Remember 100 year ago customers had a choice between electric cars, Internal combustion engines and external combustion engines, steam).  I believe the odds on favorite was ECE/steam as that was a trusted and proven technology at the time.  Steam powered machines were wide spread use and ICE and electric were the new fangeled unproven technology.  As oil was refined gasoline was considered a waste product and barrels of it were poured into streams to get rid of it.

Folks who could afford to purchase cars also had to employee a chauffeur/mechanic to keep the thing running.  Cars then were very temperamental and were always in need of adjusting. 

And let’s not forget there were no gas stations 100 years ago.  If one needed gasoline they purchased it at a there local drug store.
I don't think so. 

While really early ICE cars were the province of the rich or tinkerers, the Model T was a breakthrough, especially with the introduction of the electric starter in 1919. It was inexpensive, relatively reliable and easy to fix. They "flew off the shelves" - there was huge demand. In 1920 Ford cut the price to $395 and sold 1.4M of them. Cumulative number of Model Ts sold from 1909 through 1920 was 4.6M. The population of the US at that time was a bit more than 100M. There were about 23M families at that point - almost 1 family in 5 had a Ford Model T.

Steam was a problem because you had to fire it up well before you left whereas the ICEs of the day, with an electric starter, took just a few minutes to get ready. While steam autos may have out numbered ICE autos early on, it was on very small numbers. Wikipedia says:  In the U.S. in 1902, 485 of 909 new car registrations were steamers. However, by 1910 only a handful of steamer companies were left. One of which was Stanley - Wikipedia says: Production rose to 500 cars in 1917. Ford that same year: 375K. White was probably the leading manufacturer and built a total of about 10K, ending production in 1912.

Electric was a non-starter due to poor battery capacity and weight . Also limited electrification restricted where they could go - in 1921, a little more than half the population of the US had electricity.

Thank you for sharing this.

Do you know when the first ICE, ECE and electric car companies began selling cars in the US?
I think the first ICE car was in Europe/Germany around 1880.  Bens(?)  From before Mercedes Bens.
And did Baker Electric cars sell okay?  I think they did go out of business until 1930s.

The "Early Car Wars" would make for an interstring documentary video.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 21, 2018, 02:28:11 am
horses have pretty good self driving features and also automatic braking  ;D
and they can bring you home from pub even if you are a bag of potatoes  8)
I wouldn't bet on that. In general horses know the way pretty well if it is a known route for them. BUT a horse is also 'jumpy' and will run like a chicken without a head if it gets scared.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on April 21, 2018, 03:07:47 am
Well, in a perfect confluence of timing.  Our new eGolf should be ready for delivery in a couple of weeks, and my openEVSE parts are sitting at a friends place ready to be picked up next week.

Hopefully I'll be reporting real-world info here shortly.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 21, 2018, 05:39:59 am
Well, in a perfect confluence of timing.  Our new eGolf should be ready for delivery in a couple of weeks, and my openEVSE parts are sitting at a friends place ready to be picked up next week.

Hopefully I'll be reporting real-world info here shortly.

Welcome to the club.  VW is making a huge bet on EVs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: linux-works on April 21, 2018, 06:04:43 am
I recently joined an EV company in the bay area (not tesla..).

we have chargers at work, quite a lot, and it looks appealing - but I am currently in an apartment, can't get to the point of being able to own a home in the bay area and without home charging, I just don't feel comfortable getting an EV and having that be my only car.

I WORK at an EV company and would love to join in, but until I can control my own charging - I'm not ready to make the jump yet.

I do envy those who own a home and can install garage chargers.  if that was me, I'd have had an EV by now for sure.

until then, I watch everyone else enjoying theirs.  someday, it will be for 'everyone'.  sooner than we all think, too; at least in tech areas of the world.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: linux-works on April 21, 2018, 06:10:53 am
oh, and look to CHINA for the progress in EV rollout; the chinese govt is putting a LOT of money behind ev companies and infra in china.

I wish the US would do that; but china is leading the effort world-wide - mostly due to the fact that their air quality is unbreathable in most of china and they know they HAVE to fix this sooner rather than later.  having the govt behind it makes all the diff; and there are money incentives that will help chinese consumers be able to afford these easier.

fact: car license fees in china/mainland can be VERY pricey; but if you buy a china-made EV in china you get the license fee for almost nothing.  that can save you $10k or more in fees, alone; not to mention that I think (?) there are some days you can't drive petrol based cars, but ev cars can be driven any day and with other restrictions removed, to encourage buying and using them.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on April 21, 2018, 10:30:30 am
BUT a horse is also 'jumpy' and will run like a chicken without a head if it gets scared.
PETA once shared a bunch of stories about horses and "sudden unintended acceleration".
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 21, 2018, 01:03:38 pm
BUT a horse is also 'jumpy' and will run like a chicken without a head if it gets scared.
PETA once shared a bunch of stories about horses and "sudden unintended acceleration".

Aren't injuries and deaths from horse accidents fairly frequent?  I know of an 11 year little girl who was killed by an of control hours she was driving.  She was ejected from the drivers seat.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on April 21, 2018, 10:45:26 pm
I recently joined an EV company in the bay area (not tesla..).

we have chargers at work, quite a lot, and it looks appealing - but I am currently in an apartment, can't get to the point of being able to own a home in the bay area and without home charging, I just don't feel comfortable getting an EV and having that be my only car.

I WORK at an EV company and would love to join in, but until I can control my own charging - I'm not ready to make the jump yet.

I do envy those who own a home and can install garage chargers.  if that was me, I'd have had an EV by now for sure.

until then, I watch everyone else enjoying theirs.  someday, it will be for 'everyone'.  sooner than we all think, too; at least in tech areas of the world.
That's typically something that maybe needs to be regulated by the government?
In Europe a lot of people just charge their own car from home or there are communal parking lots with chargers.
But in general in the end it all has to do with how the people adapt new technology.
That also has to to how long-therm minded people are, for example.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on April 22, 2018, 09:13:57 pm
It's a fact that there were more serious accidents with horses per mile than there are with cars. Also the risktaking antics of cyclists are nothing new, horse carriage drivers used to complain of them weaving between vehicles in a reckless manner. There just seems to be something about being on a very flimsy, wobbly and exposed machine that creates a feeling of godlike indestructibility..  :palm:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhnjMdzGusc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhnjMdzGusc)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 23, 2018, 03:27:17 am
It's a fact that there were more serious accidents with horses per mile than there are with cars. Also the risktaking antics of cyclists are nothing new, horse carriage drivers used to complain of them weaving between vehicles in a reckless manner. There just seems to be something about being on a very flimsy, wobbly and exposed machine that creates a feeling of godlike indestructibility..  :palm:

Since bikers are mostly young, healthy men, they provide a steady supply of transplantable organs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 23, 2018, 06:00:47 am
Lets please not group motorcyclists and the pedal power lemmings in the same bracket please.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 23, 2018, 08:01:34 am
Lets please not group motorcyclists and the pedal power lemmings in the same bracket please.

Biker in the US is a motorcyclist. Cyclist usually means Bicyclist. I suppose it's the opposite where you are. And, please don't insult lemmings...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 23, 2018, 08:27:20 am
Since bikers are mostly young, healthy men, they provide a steady supply of transplantable organs.

Medical slang for motorcycle is donor-cycle. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 23, 2018, 09:12:13 am
Lets please not group motorcyclists and the pedal power lemmings in the same bracket please.
The illusion of control is strong in this one. Cyclists are merely obnoxious, motorcyclists are on the wrong end of statistics.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 23, 2018, 04:30:52 pm
The trouble with cyclists is they are the most vulnerable road users, probably even more so than pedestrians, but they don't act like it in the slightest.  I have never seen a motorcyclist swerve into traffic round a parked car without even a glance in the mirror or over their shoulder, yet cyclists do it routinely in front of buses.  They seem to think they can push "their" safety into the hands of others.

A motorcyclist on the other hand is also vulnerable, but for a few idiots aside they tend to ride with that in mind over here.  I'm not including those weirdo bearded men on Harley Davidsons with little tassles on the saddle bags... there is something wrong with them.

Statistically motorcyclists die most often because of car drivers not seeing them rather than wiping out of their own accord.

I have a simple policy on the motorbike.  "I'm invisible" and ... if by some freak chance of nature they do see me, they probably want to try and kill me anyway.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 23, 2018, 04:35:15 pm
Lets please not group motorcyclists and the pedal power lemmings in the same bracket please.

Biker in the US is a motorcyclist. Cyclist usually means Bicyclist. I suppose it's the opposite where you are. And, please don't insult lemmings...

It's a bit more complicated than that.  Cyclist is the pedal power variant.  Motorcyclists is someone who rides a motorcycle.  Biker is typically the power ranger style suicidal warp rider.  Harley Davidson son's of anarchy style people are just weirdos, for them it's all about the show and sound and nothing at all do to with the riding or they would ride a bike designed for the purpose of riding around things like corners and capable of actually going quickly rather than making a sound like a 1950s tractor or motorboat.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 23, 2018, 08:48:03 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhnjMdzGusc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhnjMdzGusc)

Seriously cool contraption. I'd love one of those to drive around town in.

100 miles on a charge, too, and charging stations all over New York  - 100 years ago! I wonder where Tesla got some of his ideas from.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 24, 2018, 01:20:00 am
Lets please not group motorcyclists and the pedal power lemmings in the same bracket please.

Biker in the US is a motorcyclist. Cyclist usually means Bicyclist. I suppose it's the opposite where you are. And, please don't insult lemmings...

It's a bit more complicated than that.  Cyclist is the pedal power variant.  Motorcyclists is someone who rides a motorcycle.  Biker is typically the power ranger style suicidal warp rider.  Harley Davidson son's of anarchy style people are just weirdos, for them it's all about the show and sound and nothing at all do to with the riding or they would ride a bike designed for the purpose of riding around things like corners and capable of actually going quickly rather than making a sound like a 1950s tractor or motorboat.

I don't care how the motorized 2 wheelers behave, they tend to be younger and male and all have a much higher accident rate.  Young men tend to take more risks than other groups but the invisibility point is also valid. Drivers look straight through them. Maybe those loud Harleys are a safety feature. I know there are safe riders (my brother teaches riding safety) but that doesn't change the statistics.  Reminds me of the old joking maxim - there are two kinds of riders, those that have had accidents and those that are going to.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 24, 2018, 01:49:51 am
Two other leading causies of motorcycle accidents here in California are what we call rice rockets and insane drivers.

Rice rocket are Japanese high performance motorcycles.  Death toll is due to first time motorcycle buyers who have a lot of money, (tech jobs), and “think” they can handle a high-performance bike.  Most motorcyclists can’’t even handle these things, so it’s crazy that motorcycle shops sell these things to first time bike ownser.  I’m not sure but I think there were so many deaths here we were passed some law to protect people from killing the self on the driver home.

Next category are insaine drivers.  And there are tow categories.  First are the ones who drive 100 mph/120 mph on California freeways.  I was commuting to work one morning with congested traffic.  Next lane over was the comuter/motorcycle lane.  Saw a guy pass me by doing 80, then slowed and signaled me to watch him.  He slowed way down to 40,  Next think I see him flying by me at over 100 mph or more doing a whiliee.  (Front tire in the air balancing on the rest tire.). I watched as he did that for maybe 2 miles until he hit traffic.  This guy might be a potential Darwin Award nominee.

The second category of crazy motorcycle drivers are the ones who take their bikes afterwork on small windy roads in the hills in the Bay Area.  These roads have cliffs with 50-100 foot drop offs if you don’t stay on the road.  In a Porche one would have a hard time stying in your lane on the 35-40 mph.  Speed limit I think is 30 - 35 with some sharp curves having a speed of 15.  Everyday after work I can here these guys their bikes and rice rockets racing on these roads.  The are stretches were they can get up to 80-90 mph and then there is a hairpin turn with a 50 foot drop off.  So while these guys are “racing” people are driving home from work.  It’s not like no one uses these roads while these

These are not all guys either, women do it too.   

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 24, 2018, 01:52:19 am
I don't care how the motorized 2 wheelers behave, they tend to be younger and male and all have a much higher accident rate.  (...snip...)  Reminds me of the old joking maxim - there are two kinds of riders, those that have had accidents and those that are going to.

Take some caution as most of the accident statistics are for fatal accidents and when the wider accident statistics are taken and modified for fault it turns out that most motorcycle accidents are the fault of a car driver.

The fatality percentage from accidents is just a factor of risk due to lack of protection at speed.

Also beware that a lot of the statistics from the states have to factor in the fact that helmets are not even a legal requirement in a few states.  I have seen Harley riders in shorts, t-shirt and flipflops with no helmet.  That's just Darwinism.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 24, 2018, 01:58:36 am
Death toll is due to first time motorcycle buyers who have a lot of money, (tech jobs), and “think” they can handle a high-performance bike. 

At least in the UK you can't just jump onto a litre sports bike as your first bike... with caveats... you can do the direct access course which is much more extensive training to lift the 33bhp restriction much earlier.  Without that you are restricted to 33bhp for 2 years.

I own a 1000cc sports tourer.  I bought it after riding for 10 years on progressively bigger bikes.  It's brutal and getting the throttle fully open is a stressful task and when fully open you are at the end of the gear you are in in a few seconds plus another 40 or 50 mile per hour.

It takes time to learn that motorcycles do not brake as well, or corner as well as cars.  You borrow from the bag of luck to fill the bag of experience.  Some people just run out of luck being greedy without the experience though.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 24, 2018, 02:40:28 am
When will electric cars be mainstream?  It’s going to be a long time......

Same is true with solar.

On Saturday I was at a local college in San Jose/Silicon Valley.  The college has 14 EV charging stations which have been there for years.  To use a charging station the instruction say to scan the QR code located on the top of the charger.  Out of the 14 chargers 8 were wrapped in plastic indicating they were broken or not working.  I tried scanning the QR code on all of the working chargers and could not get one to scan.  I think it was because of the mid-day sun’s reflection from the plastic.  I tried using a box to shade the sun but for the distance I had to hold my phone and the reflection of the plastic I could not scan anyone of them.

No problem - There’s 800 number for tech support.  Called the number only to learn they are open M-F easern time.  That sucks.  Not only is it a Saturday, I’m iin different time zone.  I’m waking up when they are having lunch.

End restfult, out the the 14 open EV spaces for car charging I could not use one of them.

And here’s something else I found out.  The college has acres of solar panels,  Right next to were the EV car charger are they have several very large diesel generators.  I was told that because solar production output can be very unreliable in sunny California they need to have diesel generators to produce electricty on days when solar isn’t producing.


EV and solar......  We still have a long way to go.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 04, 2018, 01:44:06 pm
They just became mainstream in our household
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=423805;image)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 01:51:38 pm
They just became mainstream in our household
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=423805;image)

Nice.... 
I notice it's on the street.  Do you have a long e3ntension cord to plug it to charge it?

I was looking at the VW's a couple of weeks ago and learned VM stopped making EV/Hybrids.  THey are now only making 100% electric.  Won't work for me as I would need a charge-up to get home on some of my trips.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 04, 2018, 02:03:05 pm
Nice.... 
I notice it's on the street.  Do you have a long e3ntension cord to plug it to charge it?

I was looking at the VW's a couple of weeks ago and learned VM stopped making EV/Hybrids.  THey are now only making 100% electric.  Won't work for me as I would need a charge-up to get home on some of my trips.

it sleeps in the garage. Right now it's having to make do with the supplied 1kVA charger, but I have all the bits for an OpenEVSE, and already dropped in a 240/30A circuit in the garage to plug that into.  I'm going to film the OpenEVSE assembly, and I'll put it on YouTube.

VW are pretty paranoid right now about overstating things, so while they advertise "201km range" , it said 235km remaining when I left the dealership, and still said 220km when I got home (which was 20km later).  I'll update with some real-world running information once we have a better idea of how it's all working out.  Given premium gasoline just hit C$1.80/litre here, I'm not going to miss the fillups, given electricity is only 8½ cents/kWh. That means it should cost around C$3 to fill it from completely empty

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 02:59:34 pm
Nice.... 
I notice it's on the street.  Do you have a long e3ntension cord to plug it to charge it?

I was looking at the VW's a couple of weeks ago and learned VM stopped making EV/Hybrids.  THey are now only making 100% electric.  Won't work for me as I would need a charge-up to get home on some of my trips.

it sleeps in the garage. Right now it's having to make do with the supplied 1kVA charger, but I have all the bits for an OpenEVSE, and already dropped in a 240/30A circuit in the garage to plug that into.  I'm going to film the OpenEVSE assembly, and I'll put it on YouTube.

VW are pretty paranoid right now about overstating things, so while they advertise "201km range" , it said 235km remaining when I left the dealership, and still said 220km when I got home (which was 20km later).  I'll update with some real-world running information once we have a better idea of how it's all working out.  Given premium gasoline just hit C$1.80/litre here, I'm not going to miss the fillups, given electricity is only 8½ cents/kWh. That means it should cost around C$3 to fill it from completely empty

Thanks for sharing.  My wife has a Volt.  As much as I dislike American car companies, I have to admit the Volt is a very well designed and built car.  I never thought I would ever recommend someone to buy a GM car, but I would recommend getting a volt.  Now that I've driven an electric car I can't wait to get rid of my ICE and go electric.  I'm convinced hybrid plug-in is the way to go.

Hope you like you car.

You are paying C$1.80/litre?  Crud is my math right?  at $1.80/L that would be 6.84/gallon?  Wow.....  And then to covert the to USD (1.2) that would be $5.70 in USD.  Is that right?  I thought you Canadians had a lot of petroleum.

You have us beat on the electricty prices.  We are paying $0.45 kWhr for peak (2-9pm) and $0.12 for off-peak/night time.  (11pm - 7 am).

I would be intersted in seeing your video on OpenEVSE.  I installed 2 - 220v 50a circuits in my garage.  Purcahsed a Clipper Creek charger.  (+1)

How's the software on the VW?  Volt has it so you can program charging times.  It also used GPS cordinates so the Volt knows when you are charging at your home.  GM also has pretty good app for iPhone and Andriod to monitor the car, unlock doors, etc.

 





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 04, 2018, 03:24:42 pm
Thanks for sharing.  My wife has a Volt.  As much as I dislike American car companies, I have to admit the Volt is a very well designed and built car.  I never thought I would ever recommend someone to buy a GM car, but I would recommend getting a volt.  Now that I've driven an electric car I can't wait to get rid of my ICE and go electric.  I'm convinced hybrid plug-in is the way to go.

Hope you like you car.

You are paying C$1.80/litre?  Crud is my math right?  at $1.80/L that would be 6.84/gallon?  Wow.....  And then to covert the to USD (1.2) that would be $5.70 in USD.  Is that right?  I thought you Canadians had a lot of petroleum.

You have us beat on the electricty prices.  We are paying $0.45 kWhr for peak (2-9pm) and $0.12 for off-peak/night time.  (11pm - 7 am).

I would be intersted in seeing your video on OpenEVSE.  I installed 2 - 220v 50a circuits in my garage.  Purcahsed a Clipper Creek charger.  (+1)

How's the software on the VW?  Volt has it so you can program charging times.  It also used GPS cordinates so the Volt knows when you are charging at your home.  GM also has pretty good app for iPhone and Andriod to monitor the car, unlock doors, etc.

c$1.80 is for premium, it's about c$1.60 for regular, so about $4.56/USGal. Right now it's about US$3.70/gal across the border in WA state, and when I was in Texas last week (near the large refinery capacity) it was around US$2.79/usGal

Yes, Canada has a lot of petroleum, but sensibly we have highish taxes on it (compared with the US), which encourages people to buy smaller cars. However, both here in BC and in Quebec, there is an abundance of HydroElectric power, and electricity is silly cheap (compared to almost anywhere else in the world). My 8½c/kWh is just over half what you pay off-peak, and less than 1/6th what you pay peak.

Expensive gasoline & cheap electricity makes the e-car a no-brainer here.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 04, 2018, 03:33:26 pm
Thanks for sharing.  My wife has a Volt.  As much as I dislike American car companies, I have to admit the Volt is a very well designed and built car.  I never thought I would ever recommend someone to buy a GM car, but I would recommend getting a volt.  Now that I've driven an electric car I can't wait to get rid of my ICE and go electric.  I'm convinced hybrid plug-in is the way to go.

Hope you like you car.

You are paying C$1.80/litre?  Crud is my math right?  at $1.80/L that would be 6.84/gallon?  Wow.....  And then to covert the to USD (1.2) that would be $5.70 in USD.  Is that right?  I thought you Canadians had a lot of petroleum.

You have us beat on the electricty prices.  We are paying $0.45 kWhr for peak (2-9pm) and $0.12 for off-peak/night time.  (11pm - 7 am).

I would be intersted in seeing your video on OpenEVSE.  I installed 2 - 220v 50a circuits in my garage.  Purcahsed a Clipper Creek charger.  (+1)

How's the software on the VW?  Volt has it so you can program charging times.  It also used GPS cordinates so the Volt knows when you are charging at your home.  GM also has pretty good app for iPhone and Andriod to monitor the car, unlock doors, etc.

c$1.80 is for premium, it's about c$1.60 for regular, so about $4.56/USGal. Right now it's about US$3.70/gal across the border in WA state, and when I was in Texas last week (near the large refinery capacity) it was around US$2.79/usGal

Yes, Canada has a lot of petroleum, but sensibly we have highish taxes on it (compared with the US), which encourages people to buy smaller cars. However, both here in BC and in Quebec, there is an abundance of HydroElectric power, and electricity is silly cheap (compared to almost anywhere else in the world). My 8½c/kWh is just over half what you pay off-peak, and less than 1/6th what you pay peak.

Expensive gasoline & cheap electricity makes the e-car a no-brainer here.

Isn't cold weather a problem with battery range?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 04, 2018, 03:37:49 pm
Not likely, at least not the sort you'd find in the Vancouver BC area. The batteries will self-heat as soon as you put a load on them.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 03:41:03 pm
Thanks for sharing.  My wife has a Volt.  As much as I dislike American car companies, I have to admit the Volt is a very well designed and built car.  I never thought I would ever recommend someone to buy a GM car, but I would recommend getting a volt.  Now that I've driven an electric car I can't wait to get rid of my ICE and go electric.  I'm convinced hybrid plug-in is the way to go.

Hope you like you car.

You are paying C$1.80/litre?  Crud is my math right?  at $1.80/L that would be 6.84/gallon?  Wow.....  And then to covert the to USD (1.2) that would be $5.70 in USD.  Is that right?  I thought you Canadians had a lot of petroleum.

You have us beat on the electricty prices.  We are paying $0.45 kWhr for peak (2-9pm) and $0.12 for off-peak/night time.  (11pm - 7 am).

I would be intersted in seeing your video on OpenEVSE.  I installed 2 - 220v 50a circuits in my garage.  Purcahsed a Clipper Creek charger.  (+1)

How's the software on the VW?  Volt has it so you can program charging times.  It also used GPS cordinates so the Volt knows when you are charging at your home.  GM also has pretty good app for iPhone and Andriod to monitor the car, unlock doors, etc.

c$1.80 is for premium, it's about c$1.60 for regular, so about $4.56/USGal. Right now it's about US$3.70/gal across the border in WA state, and when I was in Texas last week (near the large refinery capacity) it was around US$2.79/usGal

Yes, Canada has a lot of petroleum, but sensibly we have highish taxes on it (compared with the US), which encourages people to buy smaller cars. However, both here in BC and in Quebec, there is an abundance of HydroElectric power, and electricity is silly cheap (compared to almost anywhere else in the world). My 8½c/kWh is just over half what you pay off-peak, and less than 1/6th what you pay peak.

Expensive gasoline & cheap electricity makes the e-car a no-brainer here.

Isn't cold weather a problem with battery range?

I don't think so.  Dave did a video on lead/acid and they produce a lot of heat when charging and discharging.  I think it's 20% and 20%.  So between charging and discharging 40% of the energy is lost as heat.

Li batteries are a bit better.  But they are still affected by cold. But aging they heat-up when discharging.  Good question. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 04, 2018, 04:41:43 pm
I own a Volt. Great car. I live about 100 mi as the crow flies from Vancouver, BC - same general climate. Battery range is definitely decreased approx 10%  in winter months compared to summer.

Lucky here . Gas is cheap and grid power (mostly hydro derived) is $0.075/kWh.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on May 04, 2018, 05:32:57 pm
Just for comparison in the UK I currently pay £1.34 per litre of premium.  So £4.95 per US gallon.  $6.71 per gallon.  A tank of 50 litres gets me around 300 miles commuting.  350-370 miles touring.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 05, 2018, 12:03:19 am
VW are pretty paranoid right now about overstating things, so while they advertise "201km range" , it said 235km remaining when I left the dealership, and still said 220km when I got home (which was 20km later).  I'll update with some real-world running information once we have a better idea of how it's all working out.
IMHO one of the errors with electric cars is that they emphasize on range left instead of charge left. It is simply impossible to calculate the remaining range accurate enough to be meaningful in practical circumstances. Just like ICE cars electric cars should show remaining charge as the primary indicator and range is just some kind of gross guesstimate.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: linux-works on May 05, 2018, 12:54:26 am
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?

that's quite a product design approach.  life is too easy on the consumer, lets make it harder.

yeah, that will go over well.

how about this: solve the problem rather than avoid it?  if distance is hard to calculate, well, work harder and come up with better ways to get that estimate.  its not really rocket science and 'close enough' IS good enough.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 01:23:55 am
The Volt has a battery fuel gauge.  Something GM did “right”!  They show battery charge on a fuel looking gauge and display miles remaining in numeric form.  I really wish I could say something bad about the Volt due to my dislike of GM....  But I really can’t.  Quitte honestly I could not give them any advice on how to make any improvements on the car.  Even there software and phone app is very good.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 05, 2018, 02:59:11 am
Thanks for sharing.  My wife has a Volt.  As much as I dislike American car companies, I have to admit the Volt is a very well designed and built car.  I never thought I would ever recommend someone to buy a GM car, but I would recommend getting a volt.  Now that I've driven an electric car I can't wait to get rid of my ICE and go electric.  I'm convinced hybrid plug-in is the way to go.

Hope you like you car.

You are paying C$1.80/litre?  Crud is my math right?  at $1.80/L that would be 6.84/gallon?  Wow.....  And then to covert the to USD (1.2) that would be $5.70 in USD.  Is that right?  I thought you Canadians had a lot of petroleum.

You have us beat on the electricty prices.  We are paying $0.45 kWhr for peak (2-9pm) and $0.12 for off-peak/night time.  (11pm - 7 am).

I would be intersted in seeing your video on OpenEVSE.  I installed 2 - 220v 50a circuits in my garage.  Purcahsed a Clipper Creek charger.  (+1)

How's the software on the VW?  Volt has it so you can program charging times.  It also used GPS cordinates so the Volt knows when you are charging at your home.  GM also has pretty good app for iPhone and Andriod to monitor the car, unlock doors, etc.

c$1.80 is for premium, it's about c$1.60 for regular, so about $4.56/USGal. Right now it's about US$3.70/gal across the border in WA state, and when I was in Texas last week (near the large refinery capacity) it was around US$2.79/usGal

Yes, Canada has a lot of petroleum, but sensibly we have highish taxes on it (compared with the US), which encourages people to buy smaller cars. However, both here in BC and in Quebec, there is an abundance of HydroElectric power, and electricity is silly cheap (compared to almost anywhere else in the world). My 8½c/kWh is just over half what you pay off-peak, and less than 1/6th what you pay peak.

Expensive gasoline & cheap electricity makes the e-car a no-brainer here.

Congrats on the eVW!  I love the instant torque of electric and never having to go to the gas station - priceless. Too bad it took dieselgate to get them on the right track.

The average price per kwh in the US is around $0.11 so a lot closer to BC Hydro rates.  Most of our electricity in the Pacific Northwest comes from Hydro, too. But even with "cheap" gas here, EVs still make a lot of sense.

By the way, my in-laws live by the Columbia River in eastern Washington and pay $0.04 per kwh because of some special deal with the Rocky Reach Dam operator.  The area is attracting bitcoin miners because of the cheap rates.  I keep telling him they should get an EV but he's kind of a red-neck and thinks EVs are some sort of liberal conspiracy.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 05, 2018, 03:08:33 am
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?

that's quite a product design approach.  life is too easy on the consumer, lets make it harder.

yeah, that will go over well.

how about this: solve the problem rather than avoid it?  if distance is hard to calculate, well, work harder and come up with better ways to get that estimate.  its not really rocket science and 'close enough' IS good enough.

Yes.  Even for me (pretty technical, can actually still do calculations in my head), I prefer remaining range.  While actual range is dependent on wind, temperature, rain, elevation gain/loss, tire pressure, ... an approximate range is easy to work with. Kind of like a gas gauge.  I just know that on a cold, rainy day with a headwind and going uphill I will see lower efficiency and plan for it accordingly.  Oddly enough, ICE cars have a similar efficiency drop in that kind of weather and no one whines about "want to see actual gallons/liters left".  A very vague gas gauge with maybe 1/8 markings is considered just fine. Plus, most modern ICEs have distance to empty displays.

And, the number of EV owners that have been stranded because they ran their batteries down to zero rounds to, well, zero.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 03:59:33 am
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?

that's quite a product design approach.  life is too easy on the consumer, lets make it harder.

yeah, that will go over well.

how about this: solve the problem rather than avoid it?  if distance is hard to calculate, well, work harder and come up with better ways to get that estimate.  its not really rocket science and 'close enough' IS good enough.

Yes.  Even for me (pretty technical, can actually still do calculations in my head), I prefer remaining range.  While actual range is dependent on wind, temperature, rain, elevation gain/loss, tire pressure, ... an approximate range is easy to work with. Kind of like a gas gauge.  I just know that on a cold, rainy day with a headwind and going uphill I will see lower efficiency and plan for it accordingly.  Oddly enough, ICE cars have a similar efficiency drop in that kind of weather and no one whines about "want to see actual gallons/liters left".  A very vague gas gauge with maybe 1/8 markings is considered just fine. Plus, most modern ICEs have distance to empty displays.

And, the number of EV owners that have been stranded because they ran their batteries down to zero rounds to, well, zero.

Gas or EV miles remaing depends on how one drives.  My Volt with a full charge says I have a 68 mile range with battery power.  But driving down the freeway at 90 I only get about 40 miles.

Tell your red neck friend to drive an EV for a few days.  I was anti-EV until my wife forced us to buy one.  Out of the 4 cars we own I prefer the EV over any of hte ICE.

Explain it like this to your red neck friend.  Driving an EV is a lot like sex.  At first your afraid of it.  But once you try it, you love it.  (Or maybe that's just me.)


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 05, 2018, 04:41:25 am
Isn't cold weather a problem with battery range?
Surely it would only be a problem if its unpredictable. Its actually fairly predictable, so its just something that needs to be allowed for.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 05, 2018, 04:44:21 am

Tell your red neck friend to drive an EV for a few days.  I was anti-EV until my wife forced us to buy one.  Out of the 4 cars we own I prefer the EV over any of hte ICE.

Explain it like this to your red neck friend.  Driving an EV is a lot like sex.  At first your afraid of it.  But once you try it, you love it.  (Or maybe that's just me.)
Yeah, I'm SURE that will persuade him.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 04:47:59 am
Isn't cold weather a problem with battery range?
Surely it would only be a problem if its unpredictable. Its actually fairly predictable, so its just something that needs to be allowed for.

I would agree.  It's like knowing if one should wear a jacket or shorts in the winter.  While weather is unpredictable climate is.  We know in the winter the climate is cooler.  Yes there can be winter days when one can wear shorts, but one can predict throughout most of the winter one will need a jacket.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 05, 2018, 05:38:52 am
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge! That has worked well for decades and by your own experience (which automatically adjusts for your driving style and terrain) you know how far you can drive given the fuel guage read out.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nfmax on May 05, 2018, 06:04:38 am
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge! That has worked well for decades and by your own experience (which automatically adjusts for your driving style and terrain) you know how far you can drive given the fuel guage read out.
Most ICE cars have a remaining range display as well as a fuel quantity gauge
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 06:07:34 am
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge! That has worked well for decades and by your own experience (which automatically adjusts for your driving style and terrain) you know how far you can drive given the fuel guage read out.

Reason for a fuel gauge is because the motor is always running consuming fuel.  It is quite possible and has happened one can have a full tank of fuel and run out of gas without moving a foot.  It's happed in large traffic jams.  There is no relationship between quanity of fuel and distance car can be driven with ICE.

EV different story.  One can sit in an EV for a month in a traffic jam not moving and the distane which can be driven is the same on day one as it is on day 30.  EV only use power when the car is moving, not while it is sitting in traffic.



Is that even possible in an i 

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 05, 2018, 06:20:08 am
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge!
My current car does have a range display. All of them back to the one from model year 1988 had one.
Why should a range indicator be easier in an EV car than in an ICE car? Both know the remaining energy in the "tank" and can predict the remaining range based on the current drive style.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 06:39:18 am
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge!
My current car does have a range display. All of them back to the one from model year 1988 had one.
Why should a range indicator be easier in an EV car than in an ICE car? Both know the remaining energy in the "tank" and can predict the remaining range based on the current drive style.

In an ICE vehicle the fuel gauge only has a loose correlation to the amount of miles the car can be driven.  If the car is started and left idling it will travel 0 miles.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 05, 2018, 06:58:13 am
I've seen cars with a range indicator but the cars I've owned have all had fuel gauges. I've never really cared one way or another though since I almost always fill it up before it dips below about 1/3 tank. No reason to run it down to fumes unless I just *really* want to get straight home.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 05, 2018, 07:31:57 am
In an ICE vehicle the fuel gauge only has a loose correlation to the amount of miles the car can be driven.
True, but it is exactly the same in an electric vehicle.

If the car is started and left idling it will travel 0 miles.
Left idling for over 40 hours...
If you just sit in an electric vehicle with the heater or AC running it will also travel 0 miles.
If you just leave the electric vehicle for a couple of weeks (or days in cold climate) it will also travel 0 miles (and perhaps need a new battery).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 05, 2018, 07:34:30 am
Perhaps a more realistic measure, if you're cruising on a flat section of highway you'll get far better fuel economy than if you're going up a steep hill. My mileage varies pretty dramatically based on the driving I do, sometimes I can go 300+ miles on a tank, sometimes I'm running on fumes at 200. Either way, calculating the remaining range is something I do in my head based on the anticipated driving ahead, something the computer doesn't know.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 05, 2018, 07:38:55 am
Perhaps a more realistic measure, if you're cruising on a flat section of highway you'll get far better fuel economy than if you're going up a steep hill. My mileage varies pretty dramatically based on the driving I do, sometimes I can go 300+ miles on a tank, sometimes I'm running on fumes at 200. Either way, calculating the remaining range is something I do in my head based on the anticipated driving ahead, something the computer doesn't know.
But this is also true for an electric vehicle.
The only thing a range gauge can do is present an estimate based on remaining energy (in battery or fuel tank) and the measured consumption for chosen time period (last 10 minutes or whatever).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 05, 2018, 07:41:22 am
But this is also true for an electric vehicle.
The only thing a range gauge can do is present an estimate based on remaining energy (in battery or fuel tank) and the measured consumption for chosen time period (last 10 minutes or whatever).

I never said it wasn't. I think perhaps you're arguing against someone else using my quotes. Whether the fuel is electricity or liquid what I find most useful is a rough indication of the percentage of remaining capacity. If it also tries to estimate distance remaining that's fine too but it's not something I really care about.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 05, 2018, 08:13:40 am

Reason for a fuel gauge is because the motor is always running consuming fuel.  It is quite possible and has happened one can have a full tank of fuel and run out of gas without moving a foot.  It's happed in large traffic jams.  There is no relationship between quanity of fuel and distance car can be driven with ICE.

EV different story.  One can sit in an EV for a month in a traffic jam not moving and the distane which can be driven is the same on day one as it is on day 30.  EV only use power when the car is moving, not while it is sitting in traffic.

I think the fuel gauge is more of a historical artifact.  It really was the only way to know how much "range" the early cars actually had and so it is expected even though remaining range really is more sensible.  If you sit at idle for hours, the remaining range display would drop as the fuel is consumed.  I also think that since fuel is a tangible thing and sold in gallons or litres, a volume gauge is expected by consumers (did that 15 gallons really fill my tank?). For mobile electronics we seem to care only what percentage charge the battery has.  Though for EVs, range seems to be what most people care about.

A somewhat funny story about how deeply entrenched gasoline is in the modern midset.  I'd had my Model S for about 6 months and some woman was very curious about it. "What kind of car is that?" "A Tesla."  "Who makes it?" "Uh, Tesla." I explained that it was all electric, explained it had a big battery and showed her the charge port.  Then she says, where do you put the gas?  I said, it doesn't take gas, it's like a cell phone, you charge it. Then I showed her the charge port again. Her face showed deep cognitive dissonance.  Then she said, well, yes you charge it but where do you put the gas? I said "no gas, electricity.  I haven't been to a gas station since I bought the car".  She was clearly struggling with the concept.  I smiled, got in the car and squeeked tires as I peeled out. I laughed all the way home.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 05, 2018, 08:45:49 am
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge! That has worked well for decades and by your own experience (which automatically adjusts for your driving style and terrain) you know how far you can drive given the fuel guage read out.
Reason for a fuel gauge is because the motor is always running consuming fuel.  It is quite possible and has happened one can have a full tank of fuel and run out of gas without moving a foot.  It's happed in large traffic jams.  There is no relationship between quanity of fuel and distance car can be driven with ICE.

EV different story.  One can sit in an EV for a month in a traffic jam not moving and the distane which can be driven is the same on day one as it is on day 30.  EV only use power when the car is moving, not while it is sitting in traffic.
That is wrong. No, it is utter bullsh*t. An EV will use power even when it is sitting idle. The dashboard and all the other electronics (and probably heating/EC) will have to work even when not moving so there really isn't any difference between the two. If you turn an ICE car off completely you can also sit in a traffic jam for a month. But without heat/AC, no lights and no radio...

The bottom line is: range indicators (hence the word indicator!) cannot be made accurate enough to be useful. Think about it for a couple of hours before posting. It can't be done because it is trying to predict the future with too many unknowns.

Now throw range anxiety in the mix and the chaos is complete. Just as Boffin noted he used 'less range' than the car expected. But it can also be the other way around. Use 'more range' than expected and then people start to panic. Can I get home??? If you have a charge/fuel gauge then you quickly learn from experience if it is enough to make it home or not. Sometimes old technology just works together with our brains in a really clever way. IF accurate range gauges where possible they would have been fitted in every ICE car for decades and nobody even rememberer the good old fuel gauge.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 08:55:23 am
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge! That has worked well for decades and by your own experience (which automatically adjusts for your driving style and terrain) you know how far you can drive given the fuel guage read out.
Reason for a fuel gauge is because the motor is always running consuming fuel.  It is quite possible and has happened one can have a full tank of fuel and run out of gas without moving a foot.  It's happed in large traffic jams.  There is no relationship between quanity of fuel and distance car can be driven with ICE.

EV different story.  One can sit in an EV for a month in a traffic jam not moving and the distane which can be driven is the same on day one as it is on day 30.  EV only use power when the car is moving, not while it is sitting in traffic.
That is wrong. No, it is utter bullsh*t. An EV will use power even when it is sitting idle. The dashboard and all the other electronics (and probably heating/EC) will have to work even when not moving so there really isn't any difference between the two. If you turn an ICE car off completely you can also sit in a traffic jam for a month. But without heat/AC, no lights and no radio...

The bottom line is: range indicators (hence the word indicator!) cannot be made accurate enough to be useful. Think about it for a couple of hours before posting. It can't be done because it is trying to predict the future with too many unknowns.

There are two battery banks in the Volt.  One provides power to the drive train, and the other to is for the driver/passenger conviences.  So it is quite possible a Volt could sit in traffic not move an inch and the power train battereis would be fully charged.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 05, 2018, 02:12:37 pm
That is wrong. No, it is utter bullsh*t. An EV will use power even when it is sitting idle. The dashboard and all the other electronics (and probably heating/EC) will have to work even when not moving so there really isn't any difference between the two. If you turn an ICE car off completely you can also sit in a traffic jam for a month. But without heat/AC, no lights and no radio...

The bottom line is: range indicators (hence the word indicator!) cannot be made accurate enough to be useful. Think about it for a couple of hours before posting. It can't be done because it is trying to predict the future with too many unknowns.

Now throw range anxiety in the mix and the chaos is complete. Just as Boffin noted he used 'less range' than the car expected. But it can also be the other way around. Use 'more range' than expected and then people start to panic. Can I get home??? If you have a charge/fuel gauge then you quickly learn from experience if it is enough to make it home or not. Sometimes old technology just works together with our brains in a really clever way. IF accurate range gauges where possible they would have been fitted in every ICE car for decades and nobody even rememberer the good old fuel gauge.

Have you actually driven an EV for any length of time more than just a test drive?  I have my doubts.  Drive an EV for a couple of weeks and see how your thought process changes.

Range displays in ICEs are actually pretty much ubiquitous now.  But, I don't see any real difference between range and volume (fuel or charge). Neither can be accurate because you can't predict driving conditions and driver behavior. But most of the algorithms take into account recent fuel/charge consumption and can be fairly good for consistent driving. When either range or volume gets small, you need to do something about it. A driver gets a sense of how far they can go with a give range or volume left.  Frankly, range doesn't need to be even close to precise to be useful, just like a fuel tank gauge is incredibly vague.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on May 05, 2018, 05:29:35 pm
My car has a fuel gauge and a range remaining.  The range remaining adjusts based on average consumption (over a sliding window I assume).  When I had my car on a track it read 150miles when I arrived, but after 10 laps (12 miles), it read 50miles to go.  However I was still able to do another 10 laps and drive the 30 miles home with petrol to spare.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 08:31:40 pm
I wonder if this is being done for two reasons.
1 - We have the technology to do this now.
2 - The earache of muscle cars which consume a gallon of gas full throttle in 45 seconds are a thing of the past and the car companies and possibly with government influence is using this to have us drive more efficiently/
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 05, 2018, 08:37:15 pm
That is wrong. No, it is utter bullsh*t. An EV will use power even when it is sitting idle. The dashboard and all the other electronics (and probably heating/EC) will have to work even when not moving so there really isn't any difference between the two. If you turn an ICE car off completely you can also sit in a traffic jam for a month. But without heat/AC, no lights and no radio...

The bottom line is: range indicators (hence the word indicator!) cannot be made accurate enough to be useful. Think about it for a couple of hours before posting. It can't be done because it is trying to predict the future with too many unknowns.

Now throw range anxiety in the mix and the chaos is complete. Just as Boffin noted he used 'less range' than the car expected. But it can also be the other way around. Use 'more range' than expected and then people start to panic. Can I get home??? If you have a charge/fuel gauge then you quickly learn from experience if it is enough to make it home or not. Sometimes old technology just works together with our brains in a really clever way. IF accurate range gauges where possible they would have been fitted in every ICE car for decades and nobody even rememberer the good old fuel gauge.

Have you actually driven an EV for any length of time more than just a test drive?  I have my doubts.  Drive an EV for a couple of weeks and see how your thought process changes.

Range displays in ICEs are actually pretty much ubiquitous now.  But, I don't see any real difference between range and volume (fuel or charge). .... just like a fuel tank gauge is incredibly vague.
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process. I'm just pointing out a problem. The fact is that for both EV and ICE the energy consumption can be measured accurately. But as Paulca already noted the range prediction is always based on the past and not the future. IMHO this is a problem for widespread EV adoption because it makes EVs unreliable (IIRC some people even returned their EVs to the dealer and got their money back because of this).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 06, 2018, 03:07:41 am
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process. I'm just pointing out a problem. The fact is that for both EV and ICE the energy consumption can be measured accurately. But as Paulca already noted the range prediction is always based on the past and not the future. IMHO this is a problem for widespread EV adoption because it makes EVs unreliable (IIRC some people even returned their EVs to the dealer and got their money back because of this).

Not about EVs but it is about EVs??

I think you are trying way too hard to come up with reasons against EVs. Frankly, range display is no different for EVs than ICEs.  It is only approximate due to numerous well flogged dead horse factors. I seriously doubt it was ever claimed to be different.

I'd like to see your references for people returning EVs because of the lack of "accurate range indication". That just doesn't pass the sniff test. It's certainly not an issue in 2018.  I'd believe people returned early EVs because of short max range (<100 miles or 160 km is a problem, IMHO) but lack of accurate range remaining indication, not likely.  I think it's more likely that people refused to buy an EV that didn't have enough range.  200 miles seems to be about the sweet spot.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 06, 2018, 03:35:48 am
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process. I'm just pointing out a problem. The fact is that for both EV and ICE the energy consumption can be measured accurately. But as Paulca already noted the range prediction is always based on the past and not the future. IMHO this is a problem for widespread EV adoption because it makes EVs unreliable (IIRC some people even returned their EVs to the dealer and got their money back because of this).

Not about EVs but it is about EVs??
Put your reading glasses on:
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 06, 2018, 04:13:42 am
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process. I'm just pointing out a problem. The fact is that for both EV and ICE the energy consumption can be measured accurately. But as Paulca already noted the range prediction is always based on the past and not the future. IMHO this is a problem for widespread EV adoption because it makes EVs unreliable (IIRC some people even returned their EVs to the dealer and got their money back because of this).
While a few ICE cars show the number of litres of fuel in the tank, most just give a vague analogue measure of the fraction of the tank occupied by fuel. What all modern cars, ICE and EV, give as a precise measurement is an estimate of remaining distance to an empty tank or battery, based on historic information, and they show the miles/kilometres to that point. If you believe the future of a car is likely to be different from its past, see a physics teacher. These estimates are not perfect, but they are what people need. If you are driving an unfamiliar car the amount of fuel remaining doesn't mean a lot, but distance to empty tank is meaningful to all. We all know that if we are heavy footed we won't get the distance displayed. Only a very naive person would expect otherwise. Its a good starting point for estimating where you need to find your next gas station, though.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 04:37:06 am
That is wrong. No, it is utter bullsh*t. An EV will use power even when it is sitting idle. The dashboard and all the other electronics (and probably heating/EC) will have to work even when not moving so there really isn't any difference between the two. If you turn an ICE car off completely you can also sit in a traffic jam for a month. But without heat/AC, no lights and no radio...

The bottom line is: range indicators (hence the word indicator!) cannot be made accurate enough to be useful. Think about it for a couple of hours before posting. It can't be done because it is trying to predict the future with too many unknowns.

Now throw range anxiety in the mix and the chaos is complete. Just as Boffin noted he used 'less range' than the car expected. But it can also be the other way around. Use 'more range' than expected and then people start to panic. Can I get home??? If you have a charge/fuel gauge then you quickly learn from experience if it is enough to make it home or not. Sometimes old technology just works together with our brains in a really clever way. IF accurate range gauges where possible they would have been fitted in every ICE car for decades and nobody even rememberer the good old fuel gauge.

Have you actually driven an EV for any length of time more than just a test drive?  I have my doubts.  Drive an EV for a couple of weeks and see how your thought process changes.

Range displays in ICEs are actually pretty much ubiquitous now.  But, I don't see any real difference between range and volume (fuel or charge). .... just like a fuel tank gauge is incredibly vague.
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process. I'm just pointing out a problem. The fact is that for both EV and ICE the energy consumption can be measured accurately. But as Paulca already noted the range prediction is always based on the past and not the future. IMHO this is a problem for widespread EV adoption because it makes EVs unreliable (IIRC some people even returned their EVs to the dealer and got their money back because of this).

There no problem......  Ever here the phrase, "Youf mileage may vary." ?   Applies to both ICE or EV. 


Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.



 





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 06, 2018, 04:45:06 am
Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.
Repeating it doesn't make BS smell less foul. Your Volt needs power to supply the electronics. Google tells me that the secondary battery is only powering non-essential systems which leaves the main battery to power essential systems and thus lose charge even when sitting still in a traffic jam. Unless you shut the entire car down but an ICE based car is just the same. You don't have to leave the engine of an ICE car running idle in a long traffic jam.

@coppice: I agree with you and driving in a strange car is definitely a reason to make sure it is topped up before leaving and knowing it's range in order not take any chances. However what I see is that when it comes to EVs the remaining range is used much more prominently compared to ICE cars while the inaccuracies and problems are still the same. See the article the NY times journalist wrote about driving a Tesla during the winter. It is all about managing expectations and IMHO it is better to show a vague indication so people take precautions than showing an exact number which has a large error.
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 05:00:58 am
Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.
Repeating it doesn't make BS smell less foul. Your Volt needs power to supply the electronics. Google tells me that the secondary battery is only powering non-essential systems which leaves the main battery to power essential systems and thus lose charge even when sitting still in a traffic jam. Unless you shut the entire car down but an ICE based car is just the same. You don't have to leave the engine of an ICE car running idle in a long traffic jam.


You explination doesn't pass the BS smell test.  Try learnign about EV cars and how they are designed.  Interesting you trust what Goolge is telling you.  Guess it must be true, right?  Try Googling Free Energy.  Becase that's what my Volt has when sitting in traffic.

My statement was an ICE sitting in traffic buns fuel while sitting in traffic.  Instead of moving the car and getting MPG the fuel is converted to heat energy.

If an EV is not moving how are the pwer train batteries losing energy? And thus reducing its' range?  Where exactly are those electrons going?  EV while sitting in traffic do not prduce heat energy like ICE.

Are you saying EVs power train battereis are losing change to anti-free energy?

If the car's not moving, the power train batteries aren't being discharged.  That passed the BS test.

I have sat in traffic for hundreds of hours and I have yet seen any ICE driver turn their engine off to save any hydrocarbons.  On the otherhand when I'm sitting in traffic in my Volt I'm not consumting any watts from the pwertrain battereis.  Now that passes the BS test and onbeys the laws of thermodynamic and physics.



 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 06, 2018, 05:43:27 am
Try Googling Free Energy.  Becase that's what my Volt has when sitting in traffic.
For your explanations to be true your Volt has to have some of that magic Free Energy.

AC, heating, lights, computers, navigation system, entertainment system, seat heating, battery cooling/heating, phone charging, etc all require energy when stationary. You can't make that fact disappear by saying that those components are supplied from the 12V lead acid battery as that battery has to be charged by energy taken from the big battery. So, unless your Volt has solved the problem of free energy it will drain the big battery when sitting in traffic.
 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 06, 2018, 05:49:07 am
I have sat in traffic for hundreds of hours and I have yet seen any ICE driver turn their engine off to save any hydrocarbons.
Start-stop systems on ICE cars have been standard for a while now so there you go.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 05:54:05 am
Try Googling Free Energy.  Becase that's what my Volt has when sitting in traffic.
For your explanations to be true your Volt has to have some of that magic Free Energy.

AC, heating, lights, computers, navigation system, entertainment system, seat heating, battery cooling/heating, phone charging, etc all require energy when stationary. You can't make that fact disappear by saying that those components are supplied from the 12V lead acid battery as that battery has to be charged by energy taken from the big battery. So, unless your Volt has solved the problem of free energy it will drain the big battery when sitting in traffic.

Dude did you not read the two other posts?  NO!  You are wrong.   

Lights, computers, navigation system, entertainment system, seat heating, phone charging are NOT Let me say that again, NOT powered by the drive train batteries.  If the drive train batteries ARE NOT powering any of these systems there is no decrease in range or miles the car can be driven when sitting. 

Can't say that about an ICE.  An ICE when running is always consuming fuel in traffic which is continually decreasing the range or amount of miels the car can be driven when in traffic.

 




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 06, 2018, 06:12:24 am
Wait a second, if they're not powered by the drive train batteries then what are they powered by and where does that energy come from? If this is a vehicle with both electric and ICE then those accessories will be powered by one of the other system and either way running them is going to decrease range to some degree, the laws of energy mandate that. If you're sitting in traffic running all that stuff you absolutely are consuming energy that comes from *somewhere*. I do suspect though that the energy consumed by all this stuff is considerably less than the energy consumed by idling a conventional ICE.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 06:32:18 am
Wait a second, if they're not powered by the drive train batteries then what are they powered by and where does that energy come from? If this is a vehicle with both electric and ICE then those accessories will be powered by one of the other system and either way running them is going to decrease range to some degree, the laws of energy mandate that. If you're sitting in traffic running all that stuff you absolutely are consuming energy that comes from *somewhere*. I do suspect though that the energy consumed by all this stuff is considerably less than the energy consumed by idling a conventional ICE.
\
As has been stated several times EVs or at least the Volt has 2 banks of batteries.  One for the power train and another for the creature comforts.  In a Volt one can have a fully charged power train battery bank and not be able to power-on the car if the other battery bank is dead.  They are completely independent of each other. 

Just how much energy do you think it takes to pwoer an EV when stopped in traffic?  All that's being powered during daylight hours are the computers, one display and in my case the sound system.  Is that even 100 watts?  (I don't know, but it's not a lot.)  Now compare that to an ICE.  How much heat is being generated by the running enging sitting in traffic?  Again IDK for sure, but I'm guessing 2,000 - 5,000 watts?  I'm thinking probably more.

I know when I park my ICE car in the garage the entire garage heats up.  WHen I park my EV there's no increase in temperature.

Use some critical thinking skills.  ICE cars when running generate a tremedous amout of heat.  Aren't ICE only 20% or less efficient? 
How efficient is an electric motor?  Not eactly sure but aren't they 75% or more efficent?  And then EVs have regenitive breaking, so KE gets coverneted back to PE when slowing down.  To slow an ICE down only way to do it is to generate more heat with the breaking system which decreased range.

Does that pass your BS test?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 06, 2018, 06:40:26 am
Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.
Repeating it doesn't make BS smell less foul. Your Volt needs power to supply the electronics. Google tells me that the secondary battery is only powering non-essential systems which leaves the main battery to power essential systems and thus lose charge even when sitting still in a traffic jam. Unless you shut the entire car down but an ICE based car is just the same. You don't have to leave the engine of an ICE car running idle in a long traffic jam.

@coppice: I agree with you and driving in a strange car is definitely a reason to make sure it is topped up before leaving and knowing it's range in order not take any chances. However what I see is that when it comes to EVs the remaining range is used much more prominently compared to ICE cars while the inaccuracies and problems are still the same. See the article the NY times journalist wrote about driving a Tesla during the winter. It is all about managing expectations and IMHO it is better to show a vague indication so people take precautions than showing an exact number which has a large error.
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html)

You should read the follow up articles on that.  The author deliberately ran it out.  Tesla read the black box data and published it showing that he drove past at least one SC when he was almost out. The car at that point would have been flashing "charge" at him as he drove.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Neilm on May 06, 2018, 06:45:36 am
Aren't ICE only 20% or less efficient? 
How efficient is an electric motor?  Not eactly sure but aren't they 75% or more efficent?

Electric motors are usually over 90% - not sure what losses there would be in the gearing of the motor to the wheels (contry to popular thought there is a gearbox - usually a fixed ratio).

IIRC, efficient ICE cars engines are in the region of 30% - possibly higher at specific RPMs
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 06, 2018, 06:55:22 am
Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.
Repeating it doesn't make BS smell less foul. Your Volt needs power to supply the electronics. Google tells me that the secondary battery is only powering non-essential systems which leaves the main battery to power essential systems and thus lose charge even when sitting still in a traffic jam. Unless you shut the entire car down but an ICE based car is just the same. You don't have to leave the engine of an ICE car running idle in a long traffic jam.

@coppice: I agree with you and driving in a strange car is definitely a reason to make sure it is topped up before leaving and knowing it's range in order not take any chances. However what I see is that when it comes to EVs the remaining range is used much more prominently compared to ICE cars while the inaccuracies and problems are still the same. See the article the NY times journalist wrote about driving a Tesla during the winter. It is all about managing expectations and IMHO it is better to show a vague indication so people take precautions than showing an exact number which has a large error.
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html)
You should read the follow up articles on that.  The author deliberately ran it out.  Tesla read the black box data and published it showing that he drove past at least one SC when he was almost out. The car at that point would have been flashing "charge" at him as he drove.
I already read the follow up article with the graphs from Tesla themselves showing that actual range was dropping faster than predicted range. There is no argueing around the fact that happened. If Tesla would have told the author of the article to take the range indication with a large grain of salt and add at least 20% extra then he wouldn't not have ran out. Again: managing expectations! If you show people a number which can be perceived as accurate they'll assume it is correct.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 06, 2018, 07:03:07 am
As has been stated several times EVs or at least the Volt has 2 banks of batteries.  One for the power train and another for the creature comforts.  In a Volt one can have a fully charged power train battery bank and not be able to power-on the car if the other battery bank is dead.  They are completely independent of each other. 

Does that pass your BS test?
I think you really need to read about how cars actually work. What you wrote doesn't make any sense and it is also wrong. The Volt can still drive if the secondary (12V) battery is dead which means that the primary electronics and mandatory stuff like lights are powered from the drive train battery. Ergo it will use power when it is sitting idle while being switched on. There is no way around that. Besides that the battery management electronics will slowly but steadily drain the battery as well. It will take long but it will happen.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 06, 2018, 07:07:26 am
Dude did you not read the two other posts?  NO!  You are wrong.   

Lights, computers, navigation system, entertainment system, seat heating, phone charging are NOT Let me say that again, NOT powered by the drive train batteries.
So we have two options.
1) The "creature comfort battery" has a very large capacity and can power AC, heating, vehicle electronics (a couple of hundred watts in modern vehicles) while standing still in a traffic jam for weeks.
2) The "creature comfort battery" is charged from the "drive train battery" and the range is reduced even if standing still in a traffic jam.

http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?5409-Auxillary-Battery (http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?5409-Auxillary-Battery)
Quote
During operation, the 12 Volt battery's voltage is maintained by the "accessory power module" (APM) whenever the Volt is "ON", and maintained by the main battery charger assembly (On-Board Charging Module) when the Volt is plugged in and charging is ACTIVE (steady green LED). The APM is a DC to DC converter that takes high voltage (380V?) from the Volt's traction battery and converts it to ~13.0-15.5 Volts in order to maintain the low voltage accessory loads (including the Volt's computers and modules). It also charges the 12V system's battery, also know as an "absorbant glass mat" (AGM) battery. The 12V battery's voltage is maintained when the car is running or charging (by the APM or charger, respectively), but not when parked and unplugged.

Am I still wrong?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 06, 2018, 10:47:56 am
Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.
Repeating it doesn't make BS smell less foul. Your Volt needs power to supply the electronics. Google tells me that the secondary battery is only powering non-essential systems which leaves the main battery to power essential systems and thus lose charge even when sitting still in a traffic jam. Unless you shut the entire car down but an ICE based car is just the same. You don't have to leave the engine of an ICE car running idle in a long traffic jam.

@coppice: I agree with you and driving in a strange car is definitely a reason to make sure it is topped up before leaving and knowing it's range in order not take any chances. However what I see is that when it comes to EVs the remaining range is used much more prominently compared to ICE cars while the inaccuracies and problems are still the same. See the article the NY times journalist wrote about driving a Tesla during the winter. It is all about managing expectations and IMHO it is better to show a vague indication so people take precautions than showing an exact number which has a large error.
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html)
You should read the follow up articles on that.  The author deliberately ran it out.  Tesla read the black box data and published it showing that he drove past at least one SC when he was almost out. The car at that point would have been flashing "charge" at him as he drove.
I already read the follow up article with the graphs from Tesla themselves showing that actual range was dropping faster than predicted range. There is no argueing around the fact that happened. If Tesla would have told the author of the article to take the range indication with a large grain of salt and add at least 20% extra then he wouldn't not have ran out. Again: managing expectations! If you show people a number which can be perceived as accurate they'll assume it is correct.
You are grasping at straws. The car said he should charge and he didn't. In what world would that not be final authority? In a gas car if the low fuel indicator was lit, it wouldn't be the driver's fault he ran out of gas???

And by the way, all the Tesla literature since 2012 (probably earlier) has said range is dependent on a number of factors - weather, terrain, driver behavior.  But by all means, ignore that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 06, 2018, 11:08:21 am
\
As has been stated several times EVs or at least the Volt has 2 banks of batteries.  One for the power train and another for the creature comforts.  In a Volt one can have a fully charged power train battery bank and not be able to power-on the car if the other battery bank is dead.  They are completely independent of each other. 

Just how much energy do you think it takes to pwoer an EV when stopped in traffic?  All that's being powered during daylight hours are the computers, one display and in my case the sound system.  Is that even 100 watts?  (I don't know, but it's not a lot.)  Now compare that to an ICE.  How much heat is being generated by the running enging sitting in traffic?  Again IDK for sure, but I'm guessing 2,000 - 5,000 watts?  I'm thinking probably more.

I know when I park my ICE car in the garage the entire garage heats up.  WHen I park my EV there's no increase in temperature.

Use some critical thinking skills.  ICE cars when running generate a tremedous amout of heat.  Aren't ICE only 20% or less efficient? 
How efficient is an electric motor?  Not eactly sure but aren't they 75% or more efficent?  And then EVs have regenitive breaking, so KE gets coverneted back to PE when slowing down.  To slow an ICE down only way to do it is to generate more heat with the breaking system which decreased range.

Does that pass your BS test?

I don't know what's being argued here, I'm one of the pro-EV guys, my only point was that running accessories while sitting stationary will absolutely effect the range of the car. Any car carries with it a finite amount of stored energy, whether that is stored in gasoline/diesel or batteries doesn't matter, running any sort of accessories is going to consume some of this energy. Is it enough to matter? I'd say that depends. Does electric or ICE have the advantage here? Frankly I don't know, but I would bet that in warm weather electric comes out on top but in cold weather ICE may have an advantage since you've got all that waste heat anyway you can have all the cabin heat you want for "free" rather than consuming a considerable amount of battery power operating a heater or heat pump. How much energy is burned up idling an ICE is easy enough to calculate if anyone here has a car that shows real time fuel consumption, we know how many kWh is in a gallon of fuel, although while that would be interesting to know, even if it is (as I suspect) vastly higher than the same situation in an EV, that doesn't change the fact that even with the EV the value is non-zero.

I'm a fan of EV's, that isn't the point. My only argument is you can't have something for nothing, you can't sit there consuming energy without getting that energy from somewhere and whether ICE or electric it's eventually going to come from a common pool that could go toward propulsion instead. Fortunately sitting stationary powering accessories is not a particularly desirable use case.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 12:45:06 pm
As has been stated several times EVs or at least the Volt has 2 banks of batteries.  One for the power train and another for the creature comforts.  In a Volt one can have a fully charged power train battery bank and not be able to power-on the car if the other battery bank is dead.  They are completely independent of each other. 

Does that pass your BS test?
I think you really need to read about how cars actually work. What you wrote doesn't make any sense and it is also wrong. The Volt can still drive if the secondary (12V) battery is dead which means that the primary electronics and mandatory stuff like lights are powered from the drive train battery. Ergo it will use power when it is sitting idle while being switched on. There is no way around that. Besides that the battery management electronics will slowly but steadily drain the battery as well. It will take long but it will happen.

I have a Volt and I did have a dead  secondary (12V) battery when the drive train batteries were at 85% charge.  The car would not power up and the drive train batteries did not charge the 12v secondary. Only way to get the car moving was to recharge the 12 secondary battery.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 12:48:47 pm
Dude did you not read the two other posts?  NO!  You are wrong.   

Lights, computers, navigation system, entertainment system, seat heating, phone charging are NOT Let me say that again, NOT powered by the drive train batteries.
So we have two options.
1) The "creature comfort battery" has a very large capacity and can power AC, heating, vehicle electronics (a couple of hundred watts in modern vehicles) while standing still in a traffic jam for weeks.
2) The "creature comfort battery" is charged from the "drive train battery" and the range is reduced even if standing still in a traffic jam.

http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?5409-Auxillary-Battery (http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?5409-Auxillary-Battery)
Quote
During operation, the 12 Volt battery's voltage is maintained by the "accessory power module" (APM) whenever the Volt is "ON", and maintained by the main battery charger assembly (On-Board Charging Module) when the Volt is plugged in and charging is ACTIVE (steady green LED). The APM is a DC to DC converter that takes high voltage (380V?) from the Volt's traction battery and converts it to ~13.0-15.5 Volts in order to maintain the low voltage accessory loads (including the Volt's computers and modules). It also charges the 12V system's battery, also know as an "absorbant glass mat" (AGM) battery. The 12V battery's voltage is maintained when the car is running or charging (by the APM or charger, respectively), but not when parked and unplugged.

Am I still wrong?

Looks like it.  That post was from eight years ago.  Car has been redesigned. 

Why not buy one so you can see for yourself what you are getting all wrong.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 01:02:46 pm
\
As has been stated several times EVs or at least the Volt has 2 banks of batteries.  One for the power train and another for the creature comforts.  In a Volt one can have a fully charged power train battery bank and not be able to power-on the car if the other battery bank is dead.  They are completely independent of each other. 

Just how much energy do you think it takes to pwoer an EV when stopped in traffic?  All that's being powered during daylight hours are the computers, one display and in my case the sound system.  Is that even 100 watts?  (I don't know, but it's not a lot.)  Now compare that to an ICE.  How much heat is being generated by the running enging sitting in traffic?  Again IDK for sure, but I'm guessing 2,000 - 5,000 watts?  I'm thinking probably more.

I know when I park my ICE car in the garage the entire garage heats up.  WHen I park my EV there's no increase in temperature.

Use some critical thinking skills.  ICE cars when running generate a tremedous amout of heat.  Aren't ICE only 20% or less efficient? 
How efficient is an electric motor?  Not eactly sure but aren't they 75% or more efficent?  And then EVs have regenitive breaking, so KE gets coverneted back to PE when slowing down.  To slow an ICE down only way to do it is to generate more heat with the breaking system which decreased range.

Does that pass your BS test?

I don't know what's being argued here, I'm one of the pro-EV guys, my only point was that running accessories while sitting stationary will absolutely effect the range of the car. Any car carries with it a finite amount of stored energy, whether that is stored in gasoline/diesel or batteries doesn't matter, running any sort of accessories is going to consume some of this energy. Is it enough to matter? I'd say that depends. Does electric or ICE have the advantage here? Frankly I don't know, but I would bet that in warm weather electric comes out on top but in cold weather ICE may have an advantage since you've got all that waste heat anyway you can have all the cabin heat you want for "free" rather than consuming a considerable amount of battery power operating a heater or heat pump. How much energy is burned up idling an ICE is easy enough to calculate if anyone here has a car that shows real time fuel consumption, we know how many kWh is in a gallon of fuel, although while that would be interesting to know, even if it is (as I suspect) vastly higher than the same situation in an EV, that doesn't change the fact that even with the EV the value is non-zero.

I'm a fan of EV's, that isn't the point. My only argument is you can't have something for nothing, you can't sit there consuming energy without getting that energy from somewhere and whether ICE or electric it's eventually going to come from a common pool that could go toward propulsion instead. Fortunately sitting stationary powering accessories is not a particularly desirable use case.


James_s  Someone is saying if an ICE and a EV are stuck in traffic the range each would be able to travel before refueling would decrease.  I have an EV and if I'm sitting in traffic the only energy I'm consuming is to power the computers and sound system.  Yes it takes energy to power those devices but how much?  100 or 200 watts?  If the car's not moving the drive train batteries are not being discharged. 

Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 

If I recall correctly an ICE car with a full tank of gas just left ideling will run out of fuel in about 12 hours.  An EV could sit in traffic for a month or more and still have the amout of range.  The energy in the drive train batteries isn't being consumed so one has full range.  Yes if one is listening to the sound system and the on board computers have to get power from somewhere....  But just how much or shoudl I say how little energy is that if compared to the energy to move the car.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: jonovid on May 06, 2018, 01:07:17 pm
at the end of the day its batteries that limit electric vehicles.   :horse:   cold fusion is yet to save the day.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 01:13:25 pm
at the end of the day its batteries that limit electric vehicles.   :horse:   cold fusion is yet to save the day.

No disagreement, but there is one exception.  If people who have EV only drive downhill they won't use any power from the batteries.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 06, 2018, 03:12:52 pm
James_s  Someone is saying if an ICE and a EV are stuck in traffic the range each would be able to travel before refueling would decrease.  I have an EV and if I'm sitting in traffic the only energy I'm consuming is to power the computers and sound system.  Yes it takes energy to power those devices but how much?  100 or 200 watts?  If the car's not moving the drive train batteries are not being discharged. 

Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 

If I recall correctly an ICE car with a full tank of gas just left ideling will run out of fuel in about 12 hours.  An EV could sit in traffic for a month or more and still have the amout of range.  The energy in the drive train batteries isn't being consumed so one has full range.  Yes if one is listening to the sound system and the on board computers have to get power from somewhere....  But just how much or shoudl I say how little energy is that if compared to the energy to move the car.

This is getting pedantic but the energy has to ultimately come from the traction batteries, otherwise what is there? A separate battery pack with enough capacity to run all the lighting, electronics, heating/AC, navigation, computers, etc that is only charged independently by the charger when you plug in the car? That doesn't make any sense, if there is a separate battery there has got to be a DC-DC converter fed off the traction battery to charge it, otherwise I'd have to say it's a very strange design decision. Would it really be logical for it to be possible to completely deplete the battery powering all your accessories, computers and lighting while you've still got a giant traction battery with plenty of charge sitting there uselessly unable to power up the car's electronics?

Regarding how much energy is used, I suspect this is going to depend heavily on whether the HVAC system is used. Whether heating or cooling that's going to use a lot of energy. I've heard figures in the range of 2 tons for the refrigeration capacity of a typical car AC system which means something around 2HP, roughly 2kW and I'm betting all currently sold EVs use the AC as a heat pump to provide heat too. I expect most EVs now have LED headlamps so that's what, 30-50W for the pair? All the other electronics maybe a few hundred Watts, seat heater 100-200W, it could easily be 2-3kW worth of load. Tiny compared to the energy required to move the car, but not zero.

It's probably not very significant in real world situations, but I doubt you could sit in traffic for months either, likely closer to a few days. Still likely to come out ahead compared to ICE but you can't say something doesn't consume any energy in a forum full of engineers and not expect someone to nitpick.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 03:28:53 pm
James_s  Someone is saying if an ICE and a EV are stuck in traffic the range each would be able to travel before refueling would decrease.  I have an EV and if I'm sitting in traffic the only energy I'm consuming is to power the computers and sound system.  Yes it takes energy to power those devices but how much?  100 or 200 watts?  If the car's not moving the drive train batteries are not being discharged. 

Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 

If I recall correctly an ICE car with a full tank of gas just left ideling will run out of fuel in about 12 hours.  An EV could sit in traffic for a month or more and still have the amout of range.  The energy in the drive train batteries isn't being consumed so one has full range.  Yes if one is listening to the sound system and the on board computers have to get power from somewhere....  But just how much or shoudl I say how little energy is that if compared to the energy to move the car.

This is getting pedantic but the energy has to ultimately come from the traction batteries, otherwise what is there? A separate battery pack with enough capacity to run all the lighting, electronics, heating/AC, navigation, computers, etc that is only charged independently by the charger when you plug in the car? That doesn't make any sense, if there is a separate battery there has got to be a DC-DC converter fed off the traction battery to charge it, otherwise I'd have to say it's a very strange design decision. Would it really be logical for it to be possible to completely deplete the battery powering all your accessories, computers and lighting while you've still got a giant traction battery with plenty of charge sitting there uselessly unable to power up the car's electronics?

Regarding how much energy is used, I suspect this is going to depend heavily on whether the HVAC system is used. Whether heating or cooling that's going to use a lot of energy. I've heard figures in the range of 2 tons for the refrigeration capacity of a typical car AC system which means something around 2HP, roughly 2kW and I'm betting all currently sold EVs use the AC as a heat pump to provide heat too. I expect most EVs now have LED headlamps so that's what, 30-50W for the pair? All the other electronics maybe a few hundred Watts, seat heater 100-200W, it could easily be 2-3kW worth of load. Tiny compared to the energy required to move the car, but not zero.

It's probably not very significant in real world situations, but I doubt you could sit in traffic for months either, likely closer to a few days. Still likely to come out ahead compared to ICE but you can't say something doesn't consume any energy in a forum full of engineers and not expect someone to nitpick.

The Volt also has a gas engine.  I'm not sure, but I think the engine recharges the secondary battery.  I know the power train battery does not power the computer or lights.  We left the car with the flashers on when the power train battery was at 85%.  After about an hour the flasher lights had drained the secondary battery eventhoug the powertrain battery was almost at full chaarge.  To get the car going again the secondary battery had to be charged.

Where I have it's rare to use AC or a heater.  So with no heather of AC use how many watts do you think the car's computers and sound sytem would draw during the day?  Woudl it even be 500 watts?

 




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 06, 2018, 05:40:01 pm
If I recall correctly an ICE car with a full tank of gas just left ideling will run out of fuel in about 12 hours.
The engine in my car is rather big but it only takes 1.4 liters per hour idling. However, the fuel tank is not that large, so it seems max idle time without refueling is about 40 hours. 40 hours with free heat in the winter.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 06, 2018, 06:18:12 pm
Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 
ICE cars have start/stop systems which shut down the engine when the car isn't moving nowadays so your point is not valid.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 06, 2018, 07:01:42 pm
Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 
ICE cars have start/stop systems which shut down the engine when the car isn't moving nowadays so your point is not valid.
Some cars have that feature. Most don't. In cars which do have it, many people find the need to disable it as the engine ages, as its gets quirky.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: woodchips on May 06, 2018, 08:20:54 pm
Wow, what an extended discussion!

I think electric cars are it, but, I have never bought a new car and paying more than £25k for an electric car is simply impossible. So it is secondhand ones for me. Has anyone bought a secondhand EV? Other than from a main dealer, what was the experience like? What do you get for £3k, about what I can afford. For that in the UK you can buy a 10 year old car, possibly 70k miles, and if looked after will do another 10-15 years.

Other thoughts on EV.

On a hybrid, does anyone get problems with the unleaded fuel turning to glue after a time? It is said to be a problem but I haven't really faced it even with petrol generators not being used for months.

If you leave an EV for extended periods of time, does the battery discharge? Like your mobile phone, even with it off it needs charging every few days, not like my lamented Nokia 3310.

We have recently had a spate of bitterly cold, for the UK, weather. How much has the range dropped simply to run the 4-5kW of heating needed?

I am surprised that no one seems to have had problems with 10kg of copper charge cables disappearing over night. That is £40 of any ones money, and a whizz around the housing estate should turn up several cables. Good little earner.

What is the reality of towing, say, a 1 to 1.5 tonne trailer? A caravan is that weight but the air resistance is far larger than a simple platform trailer.

Whilst EVs have regererative braking, meaning the footbrake isn't used as much. What about the hydraulics simply seizing up? In winter with the salt is it possible for the brakes to simply stop working without being noticed?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 09:45:34 pm
Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 
ICE cars have start/stop systems which shut down the engine when the car isn't moving nowadays so your point is not valid.


Not in the United State.  So your point doesn’t apply to here.

Plus you know ICE strat/stop systems are BS, right?

https://youtu.be/k159M8QhCIE
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 09:48:02 pm
If I recall correctly an ICE car with a full tank of gas just left ideling will run out of fuel in about 12 hours.
The engine in my car is rather big but it only takes 1.4 liters per hour idling. However, the fuel tank is not that large, so it seems max idle time without refueling is about 40 hours. 40 hours with free heat in the winter.

How does that 40 hours of free what work for you in the summer when you are running the air conditioner which also generates more free heat for you?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 10:48:40 pm
Wow, what an extended discussion!

I think electric cars are it, but, I have never bought a new car and paying more than £25k for an electric car is simply impossible. So it is secondhand ones for me. Has anyone bought a secondhand EV? Other than from a main dealer, what was the experience like? What do you get for £3k, about what I can afford. For that in the UK you can buy a 10 year old car, possibly 70k miles, and if looked after will do another 10-15 years.

Other thoughts on EV.

On a hybrid, does anyone get problems with the unleaded fuel turning to glue after a time? It is said to be a problem but I haven't really faced it even with petrol generators not being used for months.

If you leave an EV for extended periods of time, does the battery discharge? Like your mobile phone, even with it off it needs charging every few days, not like my lamented Nokia 3310.

We have recently had a spate of bitterly cold, for the UK, weather. How much has the range dropped simply to run the 4-5kW of heating needed?

I am surprised that no one seems to have had problems with 10kg of copper charge cables disappearing over night. That is £40 of any ones money, and a whizz around the housing estate should turn up several cables. Good little earner.

What is the reality of towing, say, a 1 to 1.5 tonne trailer? A caravan is that weight but the air resistance is far larger than a simple platform trailer.

Whilst EVs have regererative braking, meaning the footbrake isn't used as much. What about the hydraulics simply seizing up? In winter with the salt is it possible for the brakes to simply stop working without being noticed?

Sounds liike someone has filled your brain with BS about electric cars. 

Let’s set the record straight for you.

Most people are not buying electric cars here in the US, they are leasing them for 3 years.  Why?  Cars  today are like cellphones.  Inprovements in technology and battery efficiency makes buying an electric car a bad idea.  In 3 years the the technology will have improved and like a 3 year old cell phone who want’s it?

Another reason is safety features.  Car safety improves with time.  In the US something like 40,000 - 50,000 die each year in automobile accidents.  You are more likely to die in an older car than a new one.

Then we have to talk about battery life.  The batteries in cars have a guaranteed 10 year life; but they do wear over time.  Cost to replace the batteries can be more than the car is worth.  So if one buys a 3 year old EV the batteries will have 30% or more wear on them.

Here in the US a lease payment is the same or less than a finance payment so it makes much more sense to lease than to buy.  If you really want a EV cas coming off lease are abundant and very affordable.

EV batteries do discharge over time, but no much.  We left our EV with 85% charge for 1.5 months while on vacation/holiday,  When we returned it had 85% charge.

It doesn’t get cold enough where I am for heat, but a post from someone in Canada where it gets cold said he looses about 10% battery range in the cold.  But if you have a hybrid you have a gas engine so realistily you buy a tank of petro a few miles sooner.

Gas in EVs which is the same gas used in ICE is the same.  It takes yers for it to go rancid.  With the type of driving we do we buy a tank of gas every two to three months.  I know of some EV drivers who purchase a tank once or twice a year.  Maybe where you are the quality of petro is poor.  So every few months drive the car using the engine.

Can you tow a trailer? Yup. But why?  Here in the US if one has a trailer or has more passengers we just rent a larger ICE car for the job.  I’ts very affordable.  If you tow a trailer every day/week an EV is the wrong tool for you.

Maybe you are made of money and don’t mind spending lots of money on cars.  I’m the opposite.  The amount off money one saves in fuel and maintenance with an EV is a lot compared to an ICE.  In one year we have saved thousands of dollars in not having to purchase as much petro.  Yes we are buying more electrity, but where we live and pay for electricity we can travel 4 or 5 miles on electricity where we could only travel one mile for the cost of petro.  And then add to the savings we don’t have to pay for all of added maintain expenses an ICE costs. 

All EVs have two breaking systems.  The regenerative and a breaking system like on any other car.  You will find with an EC car more of the undercarriage is protected from the elements unlike an ICE.  With ICE being more exposed to the elements and the salt one has to spend more money to maintain them.

All depends if you wan to spend more money on an ICE or less on an EV?  An EV might not be a good filt for your needs.  But for many of us who own EVs the money savings and the performance of an EV we will ever buy an ICE car again.




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 11:21:26 pm
Is this guy correct?  ICE car manufactures like Ford lrave out/remove life saving safety features in their cars for the European and Australian markets? 

https://youtu.be/eUvSWce6ZA4
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 07, 2018, 01:33:30 am
With a colleague we were looking at second hand Nissan Leaf EV.
We both don’t do many Km but we need a car for children, shopping and our money generating hobbies. Plus, on his side, the tax laws in Holland (both state and local) make owning a low use small family size IC a bit expensive.

Taking into account predicted usage, cold weather and battery wear, the 2014 or newer Leaf was ideal...
We were very suprised to not be able to find a clean one under 10000€...
These thing are holding their price better than what the doomsayers predicted.

In any case, I still need a “big” car as I am renovating a house.
When we are done, we will get a second hand Leaf combined with rooftop solar and a battery.
I imagine that I am not alone in reaching this conclusion.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 07, 2018, 01:43:56 am
Is this guy correct?  ICE car manufactures like Ford lrave out/remove life saving safety features in their cars for the European and Australian markets? 
He doesn't say what they omitted for Europe and Australia, but presumably they complied with the local regulations. Cars are not made in a generic manner. They are customised for each market. This is more that just altering the package of optional features offered, like leather sets and climate control. Often the manufacturer has 2 or more body shell options, and selects the appropriate one for the target market. Safety kit, like cameras and autonomous emergency braking, are very market dependent. All new cars in the US must now have a reversing camera. With the poor rear visibility of most modern cars this seems like a good safety feature for pedestrians in car parks, as well as helping to avoid bumps to surrounding cars. Other countries don't even seem to be considering making a reversing camera compulsory.

The bottom line is you need to look in detail to see if the manufacturer is being cavalier about safety, or if they are rationally responding to local conditions.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 07, 2018, 02:16:57 am
Some cars have that feature. Most don't. In cars which do have it, many people find the need to disable it as the engine ages, as its gets quirky.

I've driven a couple of cars that had that ridiculous start/stop system and hated it. It works ok on a hybrid where you have the electric motor to start off the line but on a conventional ICE car produces an obnoxious lag and lurch that is especially noticeable in the typical stop & go traffic during busy times around here. Some of the earlier systems even shut off the engine while the AC is on and it starts blowing warm sticky air. Everyone I know who has one of those disables the system every time they get in the car, it won't stay turned off, you have to push the button every time. The whole thing is just a scam to exploit a loophole in the way emissions are measured, real world savings are negligible.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 07, 2018, 02:39:21 am
With a colleague we were looking at second hand Nissan Leaf EV.
We both don’t do many Km but we need a car for children, shopping and our money generating hobbies. Plus, on his side, the tax laws in Holland (both state and local) make owning a low use small family size IC a bit expensive.

Taking into account predicted usage, cold weather and battery wear, the 2014 or newer Leaf was ideal...
We were very suprised to not be able to find a clean one under 10000€...
These thing are holding their price better than what the doomsayers predicted.

In any case, I still need a “big” car as I am renovating a house.
When we are done, we will get a second hand Leaf combined with rooftop solar and a battery.
I imagine that I am not alone in reaching this conclusion.

Interesting how things are different in other countries.  In the US the Leaf is not that popular.  Out of curiosity I'm looking at prices here for a 2014 and they are around $10,000 to $13,000 USD asking price.

Can you lease?  The trend here in California is to lease EVs.  The monthly payment is the same or less than financing the purchase of a car.  And like smartphones the technology, software and battery life continues to change that it worth it to get a "new" car every 3 - 4 years.  In California we receive about $10,000 in tax credits and cash rebates.

Are battery systems worth it?  According to Dave battery systems (lead acid) or only 40% efficient.  That means for every 10 kWhr the your solar panels produce and store in the batteries you'll only get 6 kWhrs back.

I've asked many people if battery systems make financial sense.  Everyone says it does, but then no one has show the math calculations to support their claims.


 



 

 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 07, 2018, 03:54:33 am
Some cars have that feature. Most don't. In cars which do have it, many people find the need to disable it as the engine ages, as its gets quirky.

I've driven a couple of cars that had that ridiculous start/stop system and hated it. It works ok on a hybrid where you have the electric motor to start off the line but on a conventional ICE car produces an obnoxious lag and lurch that is especially noticeable in the typical stop & go traffic during busy times around here. Some of the earlier systems even shut off the engine while the AC is on and it starts blowing warm sticky air. Everyone I know who has one of those disables the system every time they get in the car, it won't stay turned off, you have to push the button every time. The whole thing is just a scam to exploit a loophole in the way emissions are measured, real world savings are negligible.
In the rental cars I've driven with stop/start the engine keeps starting and stopping when you are in a traffic jam, to keep the battery topped up and the AC cool. At night, with the headlights and HVAC services running this endless starting and stopping gets pretty annoying, and doesn't seem like it can be very good for engine wear. Hybrids try to keeps the engine running in long bursts, to minimise this issue, but the non hybrid start/stop systems I've encountered don't.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 07, 2018, 04:07:55 am
With a colleague we were looking at second hand Nissan Leaf EV.
We both don’t do many Km but we need a car for children, shopping and our money generating hobbies. Plus, on his side, the tax laws in Holland (both state and local) make owning a low use small family size IC a bit expensive.

Taking into account predicted usage, cold weather and battery wear, the 2014 or newer Leaf was ideal...
We were very suprised to not be able to find a clean one under 10000€...
These thing are holding their price better than what the doomsayers predicted.

In any case, I still need a “big” car as I am renovating a house.
When we are done, we will get a second hand Leaf combined with rooftop solar and a battery.
I imagine that I am not alone in reaching this conclusion.

Interesting how things are different in other countries.  In the US the Leaf is not that popular.  Out of curiosity I'm looking at prices here for a 2014 and they are around $10,000 to $13,000 USD asking price.

Can you lease?  The trend here in California is to lease EVs.  The monthly payment is the same or less than financing the purchase of a car.  And like smartphones the technology, software and battery life continues to change that it worth it to get a "new" car every 3 - 4 years.  In California we receive about $10,000 in tax credits and cash rebates.

Are battery systems worth it?  According to Dave battery systems (lead acid) or only 40% efficient.  That means for every 10 kWhr the your solar panels produce and store in the batteries you'll only get 6 kWhrs back.

I've asked many people if battery systems make financial sense.  Everyone says it does, but then no one has show the math calculations to support their claims.
I don’t lease or borrow money to get stuff. Leasing is renting that has a slick lawyer friend and is usually more expensive than owning.
Apart from this, I don’t know how lease contracts are written in the US, but here, finding a deserted crossroad to sell your soul to the Devil is better option.

I intend to wear this car to the ground, like the Iphone4 that I still use today. So any resale is a bonus, not a need. It will carry dirty kids, their dust covered dad and building/furniture material. Very little freeway, rarely will it reach a max of 120km of calm driving a day.
For second hand, there are no incentives, apart from not having certain yearly taxes and not having to lose an hour a week driving to fill up.

The battery is because, for new solar installations here, you basically give your production to the provider for free... So storing after using as much as possible during peak solar hours (either in the car or in the house) is better, if only on an emotional level!
I’ll be going towards a LiO from one of the Local suppliers here. The prices have gone down a lot, and if you can install it yourself, it will make sense in two to three years (did the maths a year ago, it’s in a box, somewhere) at the current energy price trends.
I need 14kWh, and that was stupid expensive last time I moved 4 years ago.

As an aside, I will be changing the roof in two years, and it will be made (by me) with the solar, so no paying twice (roof, then solar). Solar is silly cheap, the installation being the major cost, the alloy supports second, I am equipped to do both.

If I was Joe Twolefthands customer, having to pay somebody to do everything, it would probably be another story.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 07, 2018, 04:38:34 am
With a colleague we were looking at second hand Nissan Leaf EV.
We both don’t do many Km but we need a car for children, shopping and our money generating hobbies. Plus, on his side, the tax laws in Holland (both state and local) make owning a low use small family size IC a bit expensive.

Taking into account predicted usage, cold weather and battery wear, the 2014 or newer Leaf was ideal...
We were very suprised to not be able to find a clean one under 10000€...
These thing are holding their price better than what the doomsayers predicted.

In any case, I still need a “big” car as I am renovating a house.
When we are done, we will get a second hand Leaf combined with rooftop solar and a battery.
I imagine that I am not alone in reaching this conclusion.

Interesting how things are different in other countries.  In the US the Leaf is not that popular.  Out of curiosity I'm looking at prices here for a 2014 and they are around $10,000 to $13,000 USD asking price.

Can you lease?  The trend here in California is to lease EVs.  The monthly payment is the same or less than financing the purchase of a car.  And like smartphones the technology, software and battery life continues to change that it worth it to get a "new" car every 3 - 4 years.  In California we receive about $10,000 in tax credits and cash rebates.

Are battery systems worth it?  According to Dave battery systems (lead acid) or only 40% efficient.  That means for every 10 kWhr the your solar panels produce and store in the batteries you'll only get 6 kWhrs back.

I've asked many people if battery systems make financial sense.  Everyone says it does, but then no one has show the math calculations to support their claims.
I don’t lease or borrow money to get stuff. Leasing is renting that has a slick lawyer friend and is usually more expensive than owning.
Apart from this, I don’t know how lease contracts are written in the US, but here, finding a deserted crossroad to sell your soul to the Devil is better option.

I intend to wear this car to the ground, like the Iphone4 that I still use today. So any resale is a bonus, not a need. It will carry dirty kids, their dust covered dad and building/furniture material. Very little freeway, rarely will it reach a max of 120km of calm driving a day.
For second hand, there are no incentives, apart from not having certain yearly taxes and not having to lose an hour a week driving to fill up.

The battery is because, for new solar installations here, you basically give your production to the provider for free... So storing after using as much as possible during peak solar hours (either in the car or in the house) is better, if only on an emotional level!
I’ll be going towards a LiO from one of the Local suppliers here. The prices have gone down a lot, and if you can install it yourself, it will make sense in two to three years (did the maths a year ago, it’s in a box, somewhere) at the current energy price trends.
I need 14kWh, and that was stupid expensive last time I moved 4 years ago.

As an aside, I will be changing the roof in two years, and it will be made (by me) with the solar, so no paying twice (roof, then solar). Solar is silly cheap, the installation being the major cost, the alloy supports second, I am equipped to do both.

If I was Joe Twolefthands customer, having to pay somebody to do everything, it would probably be another story.

I think you need to re-think technology.  Why on Earth would you be using an iPhone 4 Today?  You can't run the latest apps, which might be required if you wnat to monitor your PV system and most importantly you can't apply the latest security updates which mean you can be the target of cyber-attackers.

Then there's the issue of the battery.  Are you still using the orinigal battery?  Probebly not.  How much and how many times have you had to replace the battery that was not mean to be replaced?

And isn't your iPhone 4 slow and missing a number of radios such as 802.11A and 80.211 C?

You also don't have the figerprint reader which means there are lot of apps which won't work suchs as Wallet and Apple Pay.  Why on Earth in this day of credit card theft would you not want to protect your credit cards and your credit?

And please don't tell me you are going to use cash for everthing.  Isn't is Sweden that's eliminating cash in just a few years?

You might be happy with an slow, unsecure iPhone 4 whihc is no longer supported.  But please do society a favor and upgarde to a smarphone that's secure by modern standards.  It's people like you running aroudn with unsecure, unsupproted devices which is allowing cybercriminals to steaal from good honest people.













Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 07, 2018, 04:45:28 am
Interesting how things are different in other countries.  In the US the Leaf is not that popular.
Relative to what? Currently it is selling in about the same numbers as the Volt - no's 6/7 on   the list of monthly EV sales (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/) Sales of Leafs have slowed but as of the end of 2016  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States) it was, along with the Volt,  at the top of cumulative sales  - far above the competitors.


Quote
According to Dave battery systems (lead acid) or only 40% efficient
  I've never seen him say that but if so, it's inaccurate.  It depends entirely where you are on the charge/discharge curve.  It is not linear.   For deep cycle LA batteries at 50% SOC it can be as high as 90%.  At 90% SOC it will be closer to 50%.  At the very top - during the absorb phase of charging it will be down to a few percent.  Lots of data on this  - just do a web search...

This is not an issue if you understand proper battery based solar PV system design - especially now that PV panels are so cheap.   With deep cycle FLA batteries, you want a system designed to take your battery bank down near 50% SOC (but not below) in typical worse case - a few days with no sun scenarios.  You would also want to have generator (wind or hydro if you're lucky) back up for rare situations where there is no sun for longer.  In those cases where there is intermittent sun, you would be charging/discharging at the low end (50-70%) of the SOC curve where things are most efficient. 

When sunshine is plentiful - your system should not be discharging your battery bank below 80% SOC or so (overnight).  Yes, charge/discharge is inefficient there but you don't care because sun is plentiful.  People employ all kind of methods to make use of extra power production during time of plentifull sunshine and a full battery bank (such as "load shifting" or heating water).

The biggest mistake people make is undersizing their PV array (especially dumb given current low PV prices) or undersizing their battery bank so that it cannot provide enough power for a couple of days of no sun and still stay above 50%SOC.  The advantage of LiFePO4 banks is they can be drawn down much farther (as well and well as more efficient charge/discharge across the curve).

Now - if you're trying to milk you utilities rate structure and PV rebate system - by feeding back to the grid from your battery bank during peak hours - well you may have different design considerations and how that pencils out financially will of course depend on your system cost and what the incentive from your utility is. 

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 07, 2018, 05:26:38 am
I think you need to re-think technology.  Why on Earth would you be using an iPhone 4 Today?  You can't run the latest apps, which might be required if you wnat to monitor your PV system and most importantly you can't apply the latest security updates which mean you can be the target of cyber-attackers.

Then there's the issue of the battery.  Are you still using the orinigal battery?  Probebly not.  How much and how many times have you had to replace the battery that was not mean to be replaced?

And isn't your iPhone 4 slow and missing a number of radios such as 802.11A and 80.211 C?

You also don't have the figerprint reader which means there are lot of apps which won't work suchs as Wallet and Apple Pay.  Why on Earth in this day of credit card theft would you not want to protect your credit cards and your credit?

And please don't tell me you are going to use cash for everthing.  Isn't is Sweden that's eliminating cash in just a few years?

You might be happy with an slow, unsecure iPhone 4 whihc is no longer supported.  But please do society a favor and upgarde to a smarphone that's secure by modern standards.  It's people like you running aroudn with unsecure, unsupproted devices which is allowing cybercriminals to steaal from good honest people.

I work offshore (cable laying) half the time, I cannot use most apps behind multiple firewalls and satellite internet even if I wanted to.
We can send and receive emails, check news sites and forums - and that’s about it.
It still is on its original battery, it lasts two days including 8 hours of constant Podcast listening a day. Offshore, it goes for about 4 to 5 days. Treat your tools well and they last long.
The only thing that will make upgrade to an Refurbished SE later this year is 5G (some areas, such as gas fields, only have 5G, no 1,2,3 or 4G). I also have a work Android with no camera or GPS because some clients only allow that in their zone.

And we have a “House iPad” for anything really needed. The systems I intend to install are most certainly not IoT. There will be automation, but not IoT.
I’ll probably do something with a 555 just because.

I pay cash and with a bank card, I have a “credit card” as an emergency thing in countries that don’t accept my primary card. My bank has a very good and safe (if slow) internet payment system that I prefer over Wallet or Apple Pay.

I do not give a hoot about my “credit” as this is not how things work here. And the only debt I have is my house and I fully intend to keep it that way.

Not everyone lives in the same world as you.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 07, 2018, 07:02:10 am
And please don't tell me you are going to use cash for everthing.  Isn't is Sweden that's eliminating cash in just a few years?
Perhaps, but hardly relevant as "gildasd" and his iPhone 4 lives in Belgium.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 07, 2018, 07:58:42 am
And please don't tell me you are going to use cash for everthing.  Isn't is Sweden that's eliminating cash in just a few years?
Perhaps, but hardly relevant as "gildasd" and his iPhone 4 lives in Belgium.
We are the grey boring mayonnaise lovers, they are the blond sexy lingonberries lovers.

I miss lingonberry sauce...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 07, 2018, 08:06:49 am
We are the grey boring mayonnaise lovers, they are the blond sexy lingonberries lovers.
After visiting Belgium several years ago I started enjoying french fries with mayonnaise instead of boring ketchup.
Clams, french fries and mayonnaise.  :-+
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 07, 2018, 08:16:01 am
We are the grey boring mayonnaise lovers, they are the blond sexy lingonberries lovers.
After visiting Belgium several years ago I started enjoying french fries with mayonnaise instead of boring ketchup.
Clams, french fries and mayonnaise.  :-+
I’m French, and after 7 years in Belgium, i’m still amazed of what they will serve with mayo!
If a Swedish firm started making electrolytic capacitors, I bet they would be using berry juice.

In our last job, Our vessel picked up two loads of cable from Halden. The fjord between Norway and Sweden to get there is spectacular.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 07, 2018, 09:24:51 am
We are the grey boring mayonnaise lovers, they are the blond sexy lingonberries lovers.
After visiting Belgium several years ago I started enjoying french fries with mayonnaise instead of boring ketchup.
Clams, french fries and mayonnaise.  :-+
:wtf: Who the hell eats fries with ketchup? Blasphemy!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 07, 2018, 11:13:35 am
I think you need to re-think technology.  Why on Earth would you be using an iPhone 4 Today?  You can't run the latest apps, which might be required if you wnat to monitor your PV system and most importantly you can't apply the latest security updates which mean you can be the target of cyber-attackers.

Then there's the issue of the battery.  Are you still using the orinigal battery?  Probebly not.  How much and how many times have you had to replace the battery that was not mean to be replaced?

And isn't your iPhone 4 slow and missing a number of radios such as 802.11A and 80.211 C?

You also don't have the figerprint reader which means there are lot of apps which won't work suchs as Wallet and Apple Pay.  Why on Earth in this day of credit card theft would you not want to protect your credit cards and your credit?

I was still using an iPhone 4 until just a few months ago when I got tired of not having enough space for photos and got an iPhone SE. Not everyone cares about running the latest apps, I sure don't. I've never really had any issue with security on my phone, but I don't do a lot of web surfing on it and I don't visit sketchy sites. I think most of the FUD is spread by device makers and app developers who depend on everyone replacing everything frequently. Who cares about the WiFi speed? It's a phone, I'm not downloading big files over the WiFi. My current phone has the fingerprint reader but I've never used it, I use cash or a credit card, I have no interest in a proprietary gimmick like Apple Pay. The only time I've ever had a credit card stolen was with an online purchase and it did nothing to my credit, I simply called the bank and contested the charge and it was immediately removed, no big deal. I replaced the battery in mine once, it took 5 minutes and cost less than $10. I've never understood why everyone says iPhones don't have replaceable batteries, at least on that model it was a piece of cake.

While I do like technology, it has always baffled me why so many people seem addicted to having the latest and greatest. I want to buy a smartphone, install all the apps I want, get everything set up just the way I want it and then freeze the configuration for the ~4-6 years that I use it. When there are compelling new capabilities in a new model I will replace it and repeat the same process. I hate updates, every time iOS updates my phone gets slower and slower even though I'm still using it for exactly the same purpose. Finally I got so fed up that I blocked Apple's update server on my network. I'm glad I did too because the latest iOS doesn't support 32 bit apps at all and I still have several I paid for and use that are abandoned and no longer updated.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 08, 2018, 02:16:57 am
Interesting how things are different in other countries.  In the US the Leaf is not that popular.
Relative to what? Currently it is selling in about the same numbers as the Volt - no's 6/7 on   the list of monthly EV sales (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/) Sales of Leafs have slowed but as of the end of 2016  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States) it was, along with the Volt,  at the top of cumulative sales  - far above the competitors.


Quote
According to Dave battery systems (lead acid) or only 40% efficient
  I've never seen him say that but if so, it's inaccurate.  It depends entirely where you are on the charge/discharge curve.  It is not linear.   For deep cycle LA batteries at 50% SOC it can be as high as 90%.  At 90% SOC it will be closer to 50%.  At the very top - during the absorb phase of charging it will be down to a few percent.  Lots of data on this  - just do a web search...

This is not an issue if you understand proper battery based solar PV system design - especially now that PV panels are so cheap.   With deep cycle FLA batteries, you want a system designed to take your battery bank down near 50% SOC (but not below) in typical worse case - a few days with no sun scenarios.  You would also want to have generator (wind or hydro if you're lucky) back up for rare situations where there is no sun for longer.  In those cases where there is intermittent sun, you would be charging/discharging at the low end (50-70%) of the SOC curve where things are most efficient. 

When sunshine is plentiful - your system should not be discharging your battery bank below 80% SOC or so (overnight).  Yes, charge/discharge is inefficient there but you don't care because sun is plentiful.  People employ all kind of methods to make use of extra power production during time of plentifull sunshine and a full battery bank (such as "load shifting" or heating water).

The biggest mistake people make is undersizing their PV array (especially dumb given current low PV prices) or undersizing their battery bank so that it cannot provide enough power for a couple of days of no sun and still stay above 50%SOC.  The advantage of LiFePO4 banks is they can be drawn down much farther (as well and well as more efficient charge/discharge across the curve).

Now - if you're trying to milk you utilities rate structure and PV rebate system - by feeding back to the grid from your battery bank during peak hours - well you may have different design considerations and how that pencils out financially will of course depend on your system cost and what the incentive from your utility is.

Your claims about LA batteries do not agree with Dave's video on the efficenceny or LA batteries.  Can you provide some factual data to support your claim as Dave did in his video?  If not, I'm going to beleive Dave and his data which shows LA battereis are only loose 40 % of there energy to heat in the chemical reaction of charginig and discharging.

LiFePO4 banks may have an advantage of being able to be drawn down much farther but they also suffer from crystalization and have a much sorter life span.

Our power compnay, PG&E is encouraging customers to "milk" them.  On some rate plans PG&E will purrcase excess power at $0.85 Kwhr and sell it back to you in th same day at $0.12 kHr.  How it pencil's out is easy.  For every kWhr you "sell to PG&E within a year at $0.85 kWhr one can get back almost 8 kWhrs when the rates are lower later in the day or year.

How does the power company storing ecess energy compare with batteries?  I think you will find it's not even close.

 



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 08, 2018, 02:39:10 am
And please don't tell me you are going to use cash for everthing.  Isn't is Sweden that's eliminating cash in just a few years?
Perhaps, but hardly relevant as "gildasd" and his iPhone 4 lives in Belgium.

In the US the banks by law are no longer accepting cash from some customers.  I'm sure this is going to be the step in phasing out cash here.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 08, 2018, 02:46:36 am
Cash will be around for a long time to come. I mean we still have pennies, those have been useless for decades. I still encounter cash-only places in remote areas that have no cell service, in some cases no landlines even. People, especially those living in trendy tech hubs seem to forget that large numbers of people still live in rural areas with limited connectivity. There are still businesses like buying and selling of antiques, collectibles, and other esoteric high value stuff where people expect cash. I use a credit card for most of my day to day transactions but I've encountered enough cash-only situations that I always carry some with me.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 08, 2018, 02:56:04 am

Your claims about LA batteries do not agree with Dave's video on the efficenceny or LA batteries.
What video? He has several videos on battery charging - none on deep cycle LA batteries that I am aware of.

Quote
  Can you provide some factual data to support your claim as Dave did in his video? 

As I mentioned data easily found if you do a web search (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=lead+acid+battery+charge+efficiency)  ::)

In addition, I and many others have years of experience monitoring charge and discharge data from our own battery banks. AFAIK, Dave has no experience with deep cycle battery banks.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 08, 2018, 03:06:49 am
I think you need to re-think technology.  Why on Earth would you be using an iPhone 4 Today?  You can't run the latest apps, which might be required if you wnat to monitor your PV system and most importantly you can't apply the latest security updates which mean you can be the target of cyber-attackers.

Then there's the issue of the battery.  Are you still using the orinigal battery?  Probebly not.  How much and how many times have you had to replace the battery that was not mean to be replaced?

And isn't your iPhone 4 slow and missing a number of radios such as 802.11A and 80.211 C?

You also don't have the figerprint reader which means there are lot of apps which won't work suchs as Wallet and Apple Pay.  Why on Earth in this day of credit card theft would you not want to protect your credit cards and your credit?

I was still using an iPhone 4 until just a few months ago when I got tired of not having enough space for photos and got an iPhone SE. Not everyone cares about running the latest apps, I sure don't. I've never really had any issue with security on my phone, but I don't do a lot of web surfing on it and I don't visit sketchy sites. I think most of the FUD is spread by device makers and app developers who depend on everyone replacing everything frequently. Who cares about the WiFi speed? It's a phone, I'm not downloading big files over the WiFi. My current phone has the fingerprint reader but I've never used it, I use cash or a credit card, I have no interest in a proprietary gimmick like Apple Pay. The only time I've ever had a credit card stolen was with an online purchase and it did nothing to my credit, I simply called the bank and contested the charge and it was immediately removed, no big deal. I replaced the battery in mine once, it took 5 minutes and cost less than $10. I've never understood why everyone says iPhones don't have replaceable batteries, at least on that model it was a piece of cake.

While I do like technology, it has always baffled me why so many people seem addicted to having the latest and greatest. I want to buy a smartphone, install all the apps I want, get everything set up just the way I want it and then freeze the configuration for the ~4-6 years that I use it. When there are compelling new capabilities in a new model I will replace it and repeat the same process. I hate updates, every time iOS updates my phone gets slower and slower even though I'm still using it for exactly the same purpose. Finally I got so fed up that I blocked Apple's update server on my network. I'm glad I did too because the latest iOS doesn't support 32 bit apps at all and I still have several I paid for and use that are abandoned and no longer updated.


Why are you baffeld?  It's not that people are addicated to the technology, it's the technology changes.  Is there are reason you aren't driving a 50-75 year old car today?  Cars then, like today transport you at the same spped today as the did then.

The reason is the technology has changed.  Cars today produce less polution, have more functionality and are safer.

Same is true with technoloy, (computers, cell phones etc.) Is there a reason you aren't uing records or casseete tapes to listen to podcasts or music today?

But here's the real reason you should be updating your technology....  Security.  Your old technology can be used by cybercriminals to commit cyber crimes and you won't even know about it.  There are cases where the onwer of odler technology has been arrested as being a cybercriminal becuase her device was being used in a cybercrime.

So while you might be using an iPhone 4 or 5 thinking your are safe you are not and you are making it so socielty as a whole is not safe either.   Think of it this way.  You are one of those anti-vacination types and you brag to everyone becuase you didn't get vacinated.  And maybe you make fun of everyone who has been vacinated.  Then a travler comes to your village who has polio.  Everyone in the village except for you, buecause they have the latest technoloy doen't get the disease.

But you get the disease.  And maybe you have symptone or maybe you don't and become a carrier and act as a resivor so the polio virus can attack ohters.

Maybe you don't like the latest technology, but then you just updated so you are addicted just as everyone else who upgrades is.  Only problem you have is you are upgrading old technology to old technology and it's still not secure.

Think about your security and the security of others.








 





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 08, 2018, 03:20:06 am

Your claims about LA batteries do not agree with Dave's video on the efficenceny or LA batteries.
What video? He has several videos on battery charging - none on deep cycle LA batteries that I am aware of.

Quote
  Can you provide some factual data to support your claim as Dave did in his video? 

As I mentioned data easily found if you do a web search (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=lead+acid+battery+charge+efficiency)  ::)

In addition, I and many others have years of experience monitoring charge and discharge data from our own battery banks. AFAIK, Dave has no experience with deep cycle battery banks.

I'm looking.  Out of curiosity how efficient do you think LA battery are?

This one is not from Dave but he explains why LA car batteries shoudl not be used for SLOAR.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhIRD5YVNbs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhIRD5YVNbs)


Or try this web site  Here they say can be low as 60% which is what Dave said.

Have you ever charged a LA battery with battery charger?  The batteries can get quite warm.


https://www.solar-facts.com/batteries/battery-charging.php (https://www.solar-facts.com/batteries/battery-charging.php)


Battery Efficiency
The Lead Acid battery is not 100% efficient at storing electricity - you will never get out as much as you put in when charging. Overall, an efficiency level of 85% is often assumed.
The efficiency will depend on a number of factors including the rate of charging or discharging. The higher the rate of charge or discharege, the lower the efficiency.
The state of charge of the battery will also affect charge efficiency. With the battery at half charge or less, the charge efficiency may be over 90%, dropping to nearer 60% when the battery is above 80% charged.
However it has been found that if a battery is only partially charged, efficency may be reduced with each charge. If this situation persists (the batteries never reaching full charge), the life of the battery may be reduced.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 08, 2018, 03:58:15 am
I'm looking.  Out of curiosity how efficient do you think LA battery are?

 Did you not read my prior post before responding to it? As I previously stated:

It depends entirely where you are on the charge/discharge curve.  It is not linear.   For deep cycle LA batteries at 50% SOC it can be as high as 90%.  At 90% SOC it will be closer to 50%.  At the very top - during the absorb phase of charging it will be down to a few percent.

Also it is important to understand not all LA batteries are the same. AGM  SLA are generally more efficient. Large traction batteries, less efficient.   

Here they say can be low as 60% which is what Dave said.
  In your prior post you said he said 40%.  Still waiting for you to let us know where he said that.

And yes, of course.  One should  not use automotive LA batteries for solar PV or any deep cycle application. They are not designed for that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 08, 2018, 11:35:03 am


Why are you baffeld?  It's not that people are addicated to the technology, it's the technology changes.  Is there are reason you aren't driving a 50-75 year old car today?  Cars then, like today transport you at the same spped today as the did then.

The reason is the technology has changed.  Cars today produce less polution, have more functionality and are safer.

Same is true with technoloy, (computers, cell phones etc.) Is there a reason you aren't uing records or casseete tapes to listen to podcasts or music today?

But here's the real reason you should be updating your technology....  Security.  Your old technology can be used by cybercriminals to commit cyber crimes and you won't even know about it.  There are cases where the onwer of odler technology has been arrested as being a cybercriminal becuase her device was being used in a cybercrime.


Because it's ridiculous to replace perfectly good equipment every few months to a year, shelling out money over and over for stuff I already paid for, turning resources into landfill at a rapid pace. Yes there is a reason I'm not driving a 50-75 year old car today, it's that I can't go out and buy one, and I can't just buy all the parts to maintain it. Also there were a few technological developments like fuel injection, disc brakes and crumple zones that really are a substantial improvement but those have been around for decades now. My daily driver is pushing up on 30 years old and I just hope I can find another one if something ever happens to it because it's so much cooler than anything new I've driven. If I could walk into a dealer and buy a brand new 80s-90s car today I absolutely would. You're absolutely right, cars today transport me just like cars did back then,  and the fuel economy of my 1990 car is nearly as good as many similar modern cars. Since you mention safety, I'll say that this car is a replacement for a slightly older model that got rear ended by a semi truck at freeway speed and I walked away from that very violent accident without a scratch, you'd have a hard time convincing me that a new car is going to do appreciably safer than that and if I wanted to drive an unsafe car (or motorcycle) then that's my choice anyway. Sure a newer car has more "functionality" if you mean bloated gadgets, gimmicks and stuff to break or get outdated but you can have all that, I want to *drive* the car, I want to shift the gears, I want to feel the road, I don't need or want a bunch of bloat and distracting toys.

I do listen to music on vinyl quite regularly, yes I also have digital music that I can play from my smartphone or stream from various gadgets around the house, I'm not an old fart, I know how to use all that stuff and the convenience is nice but vinyl still sounds great and playing a record is a different experience, not to mention digging through dusty boxes of them in thrift stores looking for something good.

Now security with older devices, blah blah blah, there's a name for what you're saying, it's called FUD. Yes there have been a few notable security issues but find me an incident of older iPhones being taken over by cybercriminals (has it *ever* happened?) and I'll find you 10 times as many cases of modern, fully patched, up to date systems infected because of the one thing you can't patch, the user. I have spent many hours of my life cleaning up malware, crapware, viruses, and other garbage from countless computers and you know how many of those have been due to some exploit in old outdated software? Zero, none, so far it has *always* been a case of users installing sketchy stuff, falling for popups, email scams, bundled crapware, you name it. So save it, I'm not going to replace my devices just because of your unfounded worries about security and cries that the sky is falling. This security FUD is a very recent phenomenon, it started spreading fast right about the time software and hardware plateued and suddenly a 2 year old device wasn't hopelessly obsolete, tech companies started to panic as they scrambled to find new ways to keep selling more products. Having worked in various parts of that industry for years I've seen it from the inside, everyone is pushing towards everything as a service, subscription, perpetual income for the company and "OMG! Security! Hackers!" is one of the leading marketing cries to spin the benefits of software rental and half-assed, ship it now, fix it "later" tinker with it constantly development methodologies.

So yes, as somebody who buys something, takes good care of it and expects to keep it for 5, 10, maybe 20+ years and keep using it until it no longer meets my needs, I remain baffled how so many people think it's necessary to constantly replace everything, throw money away and burn through the world's resources.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 08, 2018, 07:05:17 pm
Quote
For every kWhr you "sell to PG&E within a year at $0.85 kWhr one can get back almost 8 kWhrs when the rates are lower later in the day or year.
How does the power company storing ecess energy compare with batteries?

The thing is : The power company does not store energy.

Now, if you invest in cheap storage (Lithium batteries), you have to consider a few "details":
- The Power company does not like you, and will make everything possible to suck off money from your investment
- The Power company likes the daily smoothing and storing capability of your battery. You have to sell it to them (with better leverage if you are a group of people)
- The variable price will be smoothed somewhat on a daily scale once battery systems are economical will scale because a lot of people invest (that point can vary greatly between regions depending on local grid evolution.) Don't count on those price differences with today's rate to make money or recoup your investment!
- The variable price on a longer scale (weeks, months) will not be smoothed out by battery systems. Don't count on those price differences at all to make money!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 09, 2018, 01:41:30 am


Why are you baffeld?  It's not that people are addicated to the technology, it's the technology changes.  Is there are reason you aren't driving a 50-75 year old car today?  Cars then, like today transport you at the same spped today as the did then.

The reason is the technology has changed.  Cars today produce less polution, have more functionality and are safer.

Same is true with technoloy, (computers, cell phones etc.) Is there a reason you aren't uing records or casseete tapes to listen to podcasts or music today?

But here's the real reason you should be updating your technology....  Security.  Your old technology can be used by cybercriminals to commit cyber crimes and you won't even know about it.  There are cases where the onwer of odler technology has been arrested as being a cybercriminal becuase her device was being used in a cybercrime.


Because it's ridiculous to replace perfectly good equipment every few months to a year, shelling out money over and over for stuff I already paid for, turning resources into landfill at a rapid pace. Yes there is a reason I'm not driving a 50-75 year old car today, it's that I can't go out and buy one, and I can't just buy all the parts to maintain it. Also there were a few technological developments like fuel injection, disc brakes and crumple zones that really are a substantial improvement but those have been around for decades now. My daily driver is pushing up on 30 years old and I just hope I can find another one if something ever happens to it because it's so much cooler than anything new I've driven. If I could walk into a dealer and buy a brand new 80s-90s car today I abs