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Electronics => Power/Renewable Energy/EV's => Topic started by: SparkyFX on December 25, 2017, 03:46:19 pm

Title: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on December 25, 2017, 03:46:19 pm
Up until 100 years ago, electric cars were more popular than internal-combustion engine powered cars and were poised to become the standard method of transportation.  Most used NiFe or NiCd batteries.
And how did they control the power output smooth enough without losing too much power in the switch while driving (therefore potentially heating it up and burning, next to the loss of energy)? Not to mention charging those batteries.

The switches needed for that got available with the semiconductors used and available as they are today, the whole system relying on an electrical grid that simply did not exist back then. Those are very technical reasons. The first gas suppliers were indeed pharmacies, as they sold the benzine in bottles and had the necessary logistics infrastructure. That gave the whole idea of a gasoline car the necessary initial push - in Germany back in the days. Where is that chummy-chum?

I mean, there have been quite counter-intuitive decisions, like removing trolley busses (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus) from cities and now selling them as solution again or lamenting about the pollution caused by exhaust gasses inside cities. Yet personal transport and public transport is a different thing.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: drussell on December 25, 2017, 05:54:31 pm
And how did they control the power output smooth enough without losing too much power in the switch while driving (therefore potentially heating it up and burning, next to the loss of energy)?

Generally using switched rheostat sections and/or multiple motor windings or voltage stages.  Using multiple tapped parts rather than one big rheostat limits wasted power in the rheostat.

Some of the stuff from that era was actually rather ingenious.  You should read up on it more.  :)

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This drivetrain was the brainchild of George Westinghouse. The engine powers the generator, which creates a large magnetic force field be-tween the engine and drivewheels. There's no mechanical transmission. The driver moves a rheostat through four quadrants — a lot easier than shifting, and grinding, the straight-cut gears of the day — and the car moves ahead progressively, giving occupants that odd feeling you get when you try to push similar-pole magnets against each other. Both Enrico Caruso and John McCormack drove Owen Magnetics.

Owens were expensive and really sophisticated. They had an advanced, 24-volt electrical system when most cars had only 6 volts. And Owen Magnetics had a black box called "the brain." There's a big warning label right on it that reads, "Do not attempt to fix this or alter it. Only the factory can do this."

It isn't that difficult to do a reasonable job mechanically, though modern switching style supplies are more difficult.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Don Hills on December 26, 2017, 01:29:55 am
... Why would you add a whole bunch of unnecessary, expensive infrastructure instead of just recording odometer readings at registration renewal time?  Many jurisdictions already ask for that information for various reasons, including just simply for statistical analysis.  It seems more logical to simply do that and then have a tax bill based on that, hopefully with the ability to pay monthly or something instead of one huge lump sum with the sticker shock that would make some people unable to afford to drive.  :)

The solution to every problem is not necessarily more electronics and the bureaucracy to support and enforce.

In New Zealand, diesel fuel isn't taxed at point of sale. It's taxed by mileage. Heavy vehicles have hubodometers (odometers bolted to one of the wheels) which are regularly read and the tax paid on the reading. Light vehicles such as cars are taxed on odometer readings. Odometer readings are checked and recorded in a central database at each regular "Warrant of fitness" (vehicle safety) check. I assume there are processes to check for evasion.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on December 27, 2017, 09:22:41 pm
Until gasoline powered cars proved to have more range and where easier to use despite the foul smell and noise.
Nope.
Gas cars were much less easier to use than electrics.
You had to warm them, fill them up with coolant (dreined after use), oil(open lubrication system with loss) and gas, start them with a handle.
The death to the electric car at the start of the 1900's was due to a simple factor: cheap gas. Much much cheaper than electricity at the time it seems.
Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on December 27, 2017, 09:40:12 pm
That and range. Electric cars worked in cities, but much of the US was (and is) vast rural areas where you might have a hundred miles or more between populated areas. Gasoline was much easier to transport in large quantities than electricity and even as late as the 1940s when gasoline was well established there were many rural areas that still didn't have electricity. Early gasoline cars could make the trip into town and back from a farm that may not have had electricity even if the car could store enough of it for the trip.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 27, 2017, 10:46:51 pm
Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
That is a nice dream but it ain't gonna happen that quick and it might not even happen at all.

1) For many people a car is a big ticket item so they buy one which fits all their needs. This means that the car they buy also needs to be fit for usage on 0.1% of the trips they make. Range is what kills an electric car here. Local constraints like taxation on ownership and limited parking space drive the need to buy a car which fits all usages.

2) Today's Li-ion battery technology doesn't have a good price/weight/range ratio and charging takes too long. It will take a new/improved battery chemistry to the range and charge limitations. I'm pretty sure such a technology will go into production in the next few years but price will remain a problem. Not to mention the energy needed to produce the battery pack.

3) Bio-fuels aren't out of the picture yet. In the US several companies have factories running to produce 2nd generation bio-fuels (Poet-DSM for example) which use agricultural waste instead of seeds. Since we eat relatively very little of the plants a lot of bio-mass is left unused. A long time ago I ran some numbers on the conversion ratio they currently get and it seems you can cover 30% to 100% of the fuel needed from converting agricultural waste depending on fuel economy of the average car and amount of agricultural waste available in a country.

All in all I don't see myself buying an electric car in the next 20 years (basically 3 to 4 cars from my current car). A car which is capable running on pure ethanol is much more likely.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: EEVblog on December 28, 2017, 12:28:06 am
Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
That is a nice dream but it ain't gonna happen that quick and it might not even happen at all.

1) For many people a car is a big ticket item so they buy one which fits all their needs. This means that the car they buy also needs to be fit for usage on 0.1% of the trips they make. Range is what kills an electric car here. Local constraints like taxation on ownership and limited parking space drive the need to buy a car which fits all usages.

Electrics will be fairly niche for the foreseeable future barring some drastic price drop (don't see that happening bar a new battery innovation), massive government subsidies, or a huge oil shock.
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: drussell on December 28, 2017, 01:32:42 am
All in all I don't see myself buying an electric car in the next 20 years (basically 3 to 4 cars from my current car).

 :wtf:

Seriously?  You're on an engineering site and you go through 4 cars in 20 years?

Apparently passion for electronics doesn't translate into other genres of physics?!

My last two vehicles are the 1984 and the 1998, purchased new...  No plans to swap anything out anytime soon...  They are working absolutely fine...  This April is the truck's 20th birthday since being picked up from the dealership...  I should buy it a paint job!  :)

Perhaps you are excessively lax in your maintenance schedules?  Egads!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: drussell on December 28, 2017, 01:37:32 am
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

Indeed...  There are many issues to be resolved before the electric panacea will be realized. 

Many people do not seem to realize that in their head-long advocacy of the electric vehicle solving all problems for all time...  :palm: 

It is not nearly that simple, unfortunately...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2017, 01:46:31 am
All in all I don't see myself buying an electric car in the next 20 years (basically 3 to 4 cars from my current car).

 :wtf:

Seriously?  You're on an engineering site and you go through 4 cars in 20 years?

Apparently passion for electronics doesn't translate into other genres of physics?!

My last two vehicles are the 1984 and the 1998, purchased new...  No plans to swap anything out anytime soon...  They are working absolutely fine...  This April is the truck's 20th birthday since being picked up from the dealership...  I should buy it a paint job!  :)
I buy used cars like I buy used test equipment: preferably with a defect which I can fix and with around 160k km (100k miles) on the odometer. That has proven to be a sweet spot considering value for money. After a thourough overhaul (tyres, shock absorbers, airconditioning, brakes and whatever else needs to be done) we drive them until around 320k km (200k miles) because at that point the expensive repairs + generic overhaul come around and it doesn't really make sense to pour more money into a car. How quick the kilometers add up depends on how much driving we do so some cars we have for 4 years, others for like 8 years. Rust is also something I have to consider because during the winter the roads get a liberal load of salt over here.

I'm finding new cars too expensive (something like 40% tax over here) and with an older used car I don't really care if it gets damaged a little bit. Given the places we drive in every now and then (like the infamous roundabout in the centre of Paris or narrow mountain roads) that is a good thing. Also safety and comfort are a concern. A newer car usually is safer and more comfortable compared to the old one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on December 28, 2017, 06:26:23 am
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.

Many people would be able to charge overnight at home. Shopping malls, businesses, etc. would be able to offer a charging service to attract customers. etc.

I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

Not if charging can be done in parallel with common tasks like shopping/sleeping/working/eating. Remember: Electric cars also offer a lot of ways to avoid driving out of your way to go to a smelly petrol station every 500km.

It won't work for everybody but for many people it will balance out IMHO.

Also: A new battery tech might appear and change the equation overnight.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: EEVblog on December 28, 2017, 06:36:01 am
Many people would be able to charge overnight at home. Shopping malls, businesses, etc. would be able to offer a charging service to attract customers. etc.

Sure, but still a HUGE number of people will get caught out.
And IME huger numbers of people park on the street outside their house so that's not possible.

Not if charging can be done in parallel with common tasks like shopping/sleeping/working/eating. Remember: Electric cars also offer a lot of ways to avoid driving out of your way to go to a smelly petrol station every 500km.

And how many people can do that?
How many spots are there going to be at work places? Shopping centres?
A few dozens, tops? A couple of percent of people get to charge, the rest miss out. Sorry, if say 80% of people switch to electric cars then this simply isn't going to be possible.

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It won't work for everybody but for many people it will balance out IMHO.

I'm guessing a few percent of the population, tops.

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Also: A new battery tech might appear and change the equation overnight.

Wake me up when it does.

And FYI, I"m hugely pro electric cars, and want to get one myself, by the practical engineer in me knows it's not going to go mainstream any time soon, it's not even close.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on December 28, 2017, 07:05:02 am
One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all. The thing is, most families have more than one car, virtually every couple I know has at least his and her cars, sometimes the kid has a car too, then sometimes there's an old truck out back, sometimes there's a motor bike in the garage, for a huge number of people electric is very feasible in place of one of the gas cars. Three of my friends now have pure electric cars as their daily driver, all three of them have wives who have gas or diesel cars, if they need to take a longer trip they simply use that car.

The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.

I suspect a solid 60% of Americans could get by just fine with a pure electric as one of two cars in the household. Of those that could, probably at least 70% of them will come up with every excuse there is to convince themselves it wouldn't work.

Regarding another comment, 4 cars in 20 years does seem like a lot to me. I bought a car with 225,000 miles on it for $500, drove it daily for 17 years and I'd still be driving it if not for getting rear ended by a semi. Got $6,000 for the car from the insurance due to it now being a classic and bought another similar car, hope to get another 17+ years out of it. If you take good care of a car it can last indefinitely until someone runs into it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on December 28, 2017, 07:07:42 am
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

Indeed...  There are many issues to be resolved before the electric panacea will be realized. 

Many people do not seem to realize that in their head-long advocacy of the electric vehicle solving all problems for all time...  :palm: 

It is not nearly that simple, unfortunately...

What's more convenient than being able to simply plug in your car at night and have a full "tank" every morning, never having to go to a gas station again? I love my gas cars but man, they are nowhere near as convenient as an electric. Not even close.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2017, 01:19:17 pm
One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all.
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.
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The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.
That only works if people can charge their cars at home. In densely populated areas that is impossible and people will depend on 'fast' charging stations. I have to park my car in the street. If I want to charge an EV from home I'd need an extention cord which is at least 50 meters long.
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Regarding another comment, 4 cars in 20 years does seem like a lot to me. I bought a car with 225,000 miles on it for $500, drove it daily for 17 years and I'd still be driving it if not for getting rear ended by a semi. Got $6,000 for the car from the insurance due to it now being a classic and bought another similar car, hope to get another 17+ years out of it. If you take good care of a car it can last indefinitely until someone runs into it.
That greatly depends on how many miles you drive and how you value your own safety. My current car (a Ford) is near the 320k km/ 200k miles mark. What is needed to get another 160k km/ 100k miles out of it are: a new timing belt, new clutch, new shock absorbers (safety), airco overhaul (safety) and some other stuff like brake fluid and new power steering hydraulic lines. That will set me back around 1700 euro which is way more than the car is worth.  OTOH the car starts to rust at the wheel arches, the engine is using some oil, the gas mileage isn't that great and there is no guarantee nothing else vital will break down (over here we have annual mandatory vehicle checks which a car must pass to be road legal). All in all it is more sensible for me to stretch usage into 2019 and look for a different car then (which brings me back to my wife having an equivalent car we can use the same way so no hurry). I'm eyeballing a newer model with a 1 litre turbocharged engine but I need more info on reliability and issues. A newer car is likely to have safety improvements like ESP.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on December 28, 2017, 02:04:38 pm
Indeed...  There are many issues to be resolved before the electric panacea will be realized. 
Many people do not seem to realize that in their head-long advocacy of the electric vehicle solving all problems for all time...  :palm: 
It is not nearly that simple, unfortunately...
What problems remain ?
Range has been solved.
Price has been solved.
Recycling has been solved.
Battery degradation is a non-issue.

Price is going down like crazy since years. The purchase price is about to cross the price of ICE cars in 2-3 Years. The 7-Year TCO is already lower than ICE cars on average.
Infrastructure buildup is following adoption rate without too much lag.

Problems are all solved, adoption is going up and up. the EV park is currently at 0.2% globally, and doubling every year. :)

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf (https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf)

That means that in 8 Years at the current rate, half the car park, and 80%+ of new cars will be EVs.
And we still wait for diesel restrictions in big cities, and carmakes will have penalties for producing too much ICE starting 2020, which could accelerate the adoption even more.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on December 28, 2017, 03:02:33 pm
Generally using switched rheostat sections and/or multiple motor windings or voltage stages.  Using multiple tapped parts rather than one big rheostat limits wasted power in the rheostat.

Some of the stuff from that era was actually rather ingenious.  You should read up on it more.  :)
It means the excess power is converted to heat in the resistor. That way you can only control motors up to a certain size using such a technology before that resistor burns - not to mention the significant loss of the stored energy in the control alone and the influence of overload on the vehicle leading to direct damage in motor or control (basically no motor protection existed back then). Does an internal combustion engine shred if you try to start with overload?
I mean Ferdinand Porsche came up with a internal cumbustion engine -> generator -> electrical motor as a way to propell tanks (VK 45.01 P) to circumvent such issues. Submarines and trains used to be driven that way too, until it was more practical to directly control power (SMPS style) or frequency (VFD style). In parallel there used to be diesel-hydraulic of course, all that just to be able to control the huge amount of output power as efficient as possible and keep the overall efficiency of the system high. Nuclear reactors in personal transportation left aside, which used to be the hype of the 60´s science fiction.

A system consisting of a internal combustion engine, mechanical transmission and clutch in that time was IMHO better scalable and provided more torque to replace horse carriages.

Without being a historian or trying to start a discussion about it, i guess WWII-logistics and availability to store and deliver energy played a huge role in what was the preferred type of propulsion later on, i guess that shaped the most part of what came to be. A technology adopted by a military also means that there is suddenly
a) an infrastructure
b) a huge amount of people trained to be e.g. a mechanic, i.e. experienced with it, able to repair and maintain that technology.
c) a form of propulsion that does not require a working electrical grid (at least for europe there was a lot bombed away and needed to be rebuilt)
So such decisions always have ripple effects which enable things to work that wouldn´t if thing had come different.

Not to mention that internal combustion engines can run on a wide variety of fuels, e.g. gasoline, diesel, alcohol (ethanol), wood gas, coal gas, natural gas, liquid pressurized gas (propane/butane), heavy oil, just to name a few. Don´t understand me wrong, the environmental impact of these varies, an ICE simply doesn´t run the majority of operating time in an ideal operation point, so even "clean" fuels might generate issues when burned under less than ideal conditions (the problem here lies in the system´s control of output power and the user as well), that´s where an electrical propulsion system has huge advantages.

Sure, but still a HUGE number of people will get caught out.
And IME huger numbers of people park on the street outside their house so that's not possible.
Just for info: there are quite some startups (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/london-street-lamps-electric-car-charging-points-ubitricity-tech-firm-hounslow-council-richmond-a7809126.html) coming up with equipment converting street lamps to charging outlets. So that might change the picture a bit.

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And FYI, I"m hugely pro electric cars, and want to get one myself, by the practical engineer in me knows it's not going to go mainstream any time soon, it's not even close.
It´s sad that the range extender (aka plug-in hybrid) doesn´t find as much traction as it should. It does combine the best of both and can even solve some issues by having the ICE run in practical ideal conditions all the time.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on December 28, 2017, 03:13:38 pm
It´s sad that the range extender (aka plug-in hybrid) doesn´t find as much traction as it should. It does combine the best of both and can even solve some issues by having the ICE run in practical ideal conditions all the time.
PHEV have the drawbacks of both technologies :
- Cost is high, you have to pack both techs.
- Efficiency in long rage is as bad or worse as pure ICE
- Weight is high, you schlepp that ICE engine around every day for no benefit
- Not much space left in the car
- Maintenance costs are high, especially on ICE engines that are not regularily used


It's clearly a stop gap measure, or for some niche drive profiles.
I would even say it's a stop gap measure designed for keeping the actual car makers in buisiness, not for saving costs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on December 28, 2017, 03:19:44 pm
It means the excess power is converted to heat in the resistor. That way you can only control motors up to a certain size using such a technology before that resistor burns - not to mention the significant loss of the stored energy in the control alone and the influence of overload on the vehicle leading to direct damage in motor or control (basically no motor protection existed back then).
Yep, there's some waste, but usually it's only during acceleration, the resistors are not used during coast, then you use the multiple taps on the DC motor.
There are some tramways still in use with this technology at a peak power of about a megawatt.
it's quite robust if protected properly, and not very lossy if the DC motor has many taps (or offset brushes)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on December 28, 2017, 04:06:47 pm
PHEV have the drawbacks of both technologies :
Hah, right, of course it depends which/whose specs apply.

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- Cost is high, you have to pack both techs.
Once it is a competitive environment, yes, but so long cost and price often have not much to do with each other. In other words there are many examples in which the brand name sells.

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- Efficiency in long rage is as bad or worse as pure ICE
Imho thats more or less a question of measurement drive cycle compared to real life. Or comparison between each other. Most people can´t achieve the rated fuel consumption because of their driving habits or simply the amount of traffic around them, a generator decoupled from that and buffered almost guarantees ideal conditions. This application isn´t a single/static operating point.

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- Weight is high, you shclepp that ICE engine around every day for no benefit
The weight of a vehicle does not take the full downside in a vehicle that is able to recuperate energy from its kinetic energy. In a conventional ICE it would be converted to heat in the brake discs.

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- Not much space left in the car
It´s a question which customer should be served (again, specs), who it is designed for and which use case. The technology itself is scalable.

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- Maintenance costs are high, especially on ICE engines that are not regularily used
Less than in a conventional ICE, taking recuperation in account. What the car can´t do, is being clairvoyant. It can´t know if it makes sense to operate the ICE or not to minimise wear and tear without further information like a navigation route or button press.

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It's clearly a stop gap measure, or for some niche drive profiles.
I would even say it's a stop gap measure designed for keeping the actual car makers in buisiness, not for saving costs.
Imho yes and no, it´s not as if there was only one possibility toward which each and everyone needs to orient to. Diversity does make some sense, i think.
E.g. development effort put into small gas engines also propells small vehicles more efficient.
Exchanging a range extender with a fuel cell or "whatever" is simpler, as the rest of the vehicle is developed to run electrically. It´s not just the propulsion, it is heating, air condition and ventilation, power steering, brake system and so on that needs to be as reliable as it used to be. In a transition phase this is at least as important as the propulsion itself.

So, imho, as long as the magic wonder battery technology that does everything is not here yet, there still is a problem that it solves, especially as regulations get tighter and tighter (for a reason).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2017, 04:55:00 pm
Problems are all solved, adoption is going up and up. the EV park is currently at 0.2% globally, and doubling every year. :)

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf (https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf)

That means that in 8 Years at the current rate, half the car park, and 80%+ of new cars will be EVs.
Keep on dreaming and when you wake up look for a term called 'market saturation' https://www.consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Diffusion_of_Innovation.html (https://www.consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Diffusion_of_Innovation.html). The current EVs are like iPhones and due to limitations of range, charging and price EVs will stay that way for quite some time to come.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: tszaboo on December 28, 2017, 10:30:09 pm
Problems are all solved, adoption is going up and up. the EV park is currently at 0.2% globally, and doubling every year. :)

https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf (https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf)

That means that in 8 Years at the current rate, half the car park, and 80%+ of new cars will be EVs.
Keep on dreaming and when you wake up look for a term called 'market saturation' https://www.consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Diffusion_of_Innovation.html (https://www.consumerpsychologist.com/cb_Diffusion_of_Innovation.html). The current EVs are like iPhones and due to limitations of range, charging and price EVs will stay that way for quite some time to come.
He is right. Solid state lithium battery is just around the corner, and that will reduce the battery cost significantly. First we see a drop around 50%, in about 2-3 years, then some due to the optimization.
Yes, I am saying, that in 2-3 years, EV will cost less than ICE, though we will also see a range increase.
One has to be an really desperate to buy a ICE car, when the electric is cheaper to buy, cheaper to run and serves 99% of use cases.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2017, 10:37:02 pm
Seeing is believing. I've read too many times that a new battery technology is about to break through in a couple of years. The reality is that new technology tends to trickle down into products. It is not just the technology that needs to be perfected but also mass production and safety approvals. The latter two will take at least a couple of years each so a decade is a better prediction. We'll probably see new battery technology in our phones and laptops before it find it's way into cars. If there really was a new battery technology around the corner then Tesla would not have invested in a huge Li-ion factory.

I also don't see why an EV would suddenly cost less then a car with a combustion engine even IF they are produced in equal numbers so you better come up with some actual numbers here. The way I see it one complex component is swapped for another complex component (not just the engine, the entire drive train including energy/fuel storage).

Edit:
Quotation from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_lithium-ion_battery (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_lithium-ion_battery) In November 2017, Fisker Inc., .... the emerging technology of solid state batteries, could put electric cars with 500-plus mile ranges and one-minute recharging times on the roads as early as the year 2024. That is not 2-3 years but more like 10 years or more before we see main stream use.

The inventor  is even more skeptical: http://theamericanenergynews.com/markham-on-energy/solid-state-battery-advance-goodenough (http://theamericanenergynews.com/markham-on-energy/solid-state-battery-advance-goodenough) in an article published the 1st of March 2017: This will have no tangible effect on electric vehicle adoption in the next 15 years, if it does at all. A key hurdle that many solid-state electrolytes face is lack of a scalable and cost-effective manufacturing process
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: tszaboo on December 28, 2017, 11:41:44 pm
Toyota is building the factory, Tesla semi is supposed to come with that battery technology.
These are not the new article, when Won Heng at the technical university of new bullshit has combined batteries and supercapacitors with lazers. It is the real deal.
My numbers are in the tesla semi thread. I'm not gonna repeat myself.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2017, 11:57:08 pm
Still better post a link because I can't find it and Google only comes up with marketing BS from Musk making promises.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: EEVblog on December 29, 2017, 12:03:32 am
He is right. Solid state lithium battery is just around the corner, and that will reduce the battery cost significantly. First we see a drop around 50%, in about 2-3 years, then some due to the optimization.
Yes, I am saying, that in 2-3 years, EV will cost less than ICE

Without government subsidies?
I'll take that bet.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: thm_w on December 29, 2017, 12:30:14 am
Copied from the other thread:

Quote
Last month was another record month for the country [Norway] with electric cars representing 42% of its new vehicles being registered.

https://electrek.co/2017/07/04/electric-car-norway-tesla-model-x/ (https://electrek.co/2017/07/04/electric-car-norway-tesla-model-x/)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country)

Sure its subsidized like crazy, but it tells you something about how usable it is as a primary vehicle there (~60% of households only own one car).
US and AUS driving distances are probably a lot further, so you might want to have two vehicles as pointed out above.

Maybe 4+ years for costs to come down: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-than-conventional-vehicles-by-2022 (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-than-conventional-vehicles-by-2022)
But you can still get a hell of a deal on a used electric before then.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 29, 2017, 01:29:08 am
Maybe 4+ years for costs to come down: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-than-conventional-vehicles-by-2022 (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/25/electric-cars-will-be-cheaper-than-conventional-vehicles-by-2022)
But you can still get a hell of a deal on a used electric before then.
This greatly depends on how you calculate TCO and I assume these numbers only look at purchase price and maintenance costs during the first few years and not the entire usefull life of a car. If you calculate TCO over the first 100k km (the typical lease period over here) then the depreciation is a large chunk. If I take my own car as an example. It cost nearly 28k euro when new and when I bought it with around 140k km I paid 5k euro. That means that the previous owners paid over 16 cents per km for just the depreciation. I OTOH pay around 3 cents per km in depreciation. It is unclear how that equation works out for an EV. If a used EV is going to need a new battery pack it may be worth a negative number by the time the first owner is going to buy a new car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 29, 2017, 02:39:21 am
It´s sad that the range extender (aka plug-in hybrid) doesn´t find as much traction as it should. It does combine the best of both and can even solve some issues by having the ICE run in practical ideal conditions all the time.
PHEV have the drawbacks of both technologies :
- Cost is high, you have to pack both techs.
- Efficiency in long rage is as bad or worse as pure ICE
- Weight is high, you schlepp that ICE engine around every day for no benefit
- Not much space left in the car
- Maintenance costs are high, especially on ICE engines that are not regularily used

It's clearly a stop gap measure, or for some niche drive profiles.
I would even say it's a stop gap measure designed for keeping the actual car makers in buisiness, not for saving costs.
There are many use cases where a hybrid vehicle would make a good fit and overcome the higher initial cost, but even that point is already trying to tie down the discussion. The Prius sizes both the electric and petrol engines too small for either to completely operate the vehicle within "normal" performance that customers demand, so they've not added two duplicate systems but pared both down to minimal cost/weight/size to complement each other.

Breaking out the other points:
- Efficiency in long rage is as bad or worse as pure ICE
This is unfounded, even cruising steadily on a highway a hybrid vehicle can out perform the fuel efficiency of a pure ICE as it can:
Run the engine at the most efficient power point and store excess energy before turning off the engine
Recover energy on downhill sections

- Weight is high, you schlepp that ICE engine around every day for no benefit
The benefit is that you need a whole lot less batteries than a pure electric vehicle, or a smaller ICE engine than otherwise. Weight would be higher than a pure ICE vehicle but offset by the ability to recover energy in deceleration (the major efficiency penalty of weight).

- Not much space left in the car
Batteries to make up a similar range would be far more voluminous than the addition of a compact ICE and fuel source. Also the interior space of a car is an independent parameter, few vehicles are limited on their exterior sizing!

- Maintenance costs are high, especially on ICE engines that are not regularily used
Only if you are used to the historical xxx km or yyy years servicing intervals, modern ICE units are now running on longer timed maintenance and dynamically determined usage based periods.

Hybrids are the exact answer to people who believe they need to own a car that can travel hundreds of km and refuel rapidly, its a real use case of vehicles and will continue to be demanded. Battery cars are unlikely to meet those requirements any time soon and could be much more effectively targeted at what they do well, which is small cars with short 100-200km range for moving around town/shopping/etc which is radically different to how people see cars at the moment.

One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all.
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.
How often are you needing to use both of them at the same time for trips too far to use an electric alternative? And then the follow up of for those few times when it really is needed to have multiple long distance vehicles how much would a rental cost?

I live in a household with 2 cars, one for long distance trips, and one for around town. Its never ever been necessary to drive long distances in the around town car and we wouldn't want to as its just too uncomfortable for that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on December 29, 2017, 03:51:30 am
Interesting discussion. Not sure how many BEV owners there are in this discussion but, as one, I thought an owner's perspective would be of value.

I own a Tesla Model S, since 2013. It gets about 270 miles range on a full charge. For around town and the occasional 100+ miles trips locally, it's super convenient. I spend maybe 30 seconds every few days plugging/unplugging. If I want, I can start every day with full range. I've been to a gas station maybe once a year since getting the car and find it a disgusting experience now. The whole "filling station" mindset has been wiped from my brain.

On the occasion that I take a road trip - maybe 3-4 times a year, I have to do a little planning. For major roadways (Freeways in the USA), there are Tesla owned Superchargers that charge up to 120 KWatts per hour.  I can drive several hours and stop at an SC. Charge the car, take a bathroom break, get a little food or coffee and then 20-30 minutes later back on the road to the next SC or destination. The car will tell you when you can continue. For those of us that bought early, SC use is free.  I can drive cross country from Seattle to New York City on SCs alone and pay $0.00 out of pocket for charges.  Lots of hotels now have chargers. They are slower than SCs but plugging in over night is no hardship. When I go farther off grid, it takes more planning but there are lots of chargers out there and some of them are pretty fast (50 KWatts for example). I can even plug into a wall outlet for a very slow charge (3-4 miles per hour) in the worst case. I'll never be bricked. The charger situation is getting better all the time. There are 1100 Superchargers world wide, almost 500 in the US and Canada. With more being added all the time. Roads trips are the worst aspect of EV ownership and they aren't bad.

Also, a lot of the new SCs are being added in urban areas to support apartment dwellers. These are being added in shopping areas so you plug in your car, go shopping for an hour, have dinner, see a movie, whatever and get a full charge.

Yeah, I paid a lot more for my car but I still love it. It's responsive, fast, reliable and beautiful. You'd have to pry it out of my cold, dead fingers to take it away from me.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on December 29, 2017, 03:35:11 pm
He is right. Solid state lithium battery is just around the corner, and that will reduce the battery cost significantly. First we see a drop around 50%, in about 2-3 years, then some due to the optimization.
That also means to stay competitive, all other variants will go down in cost, squeezing the last bits out. A manufacturer with a unique selling point will try to make as much money as possible before production is able to deliver targeted amounts and take a premium on that unique selling point.

Anyway, storing more energy per volume/mass is a step forward, but it is not the whole truth. Safety and long term stability are very important factors too, they might as well change the outcome of some equations or be a complete showstopper. I would not be that optimistic that some announcement means a new technology outright fulfills all requirements to a mass marketable product. When talking about solid state electrolytes, does that mean that they are vulnerable to vibration? Good luck using them in a vehicle then. And that´s just one example.

Quote
Yes, I am saying, that in 2-3 years, EV will cost less than ICE, though we will also see a range increase.
One has to be an really desperate to buy a ICE car, when the electric is cheaper to buy, cheaper to run and serves 99% of use cases.
Just as much one shouldn´t sell all possessions because someone said "the end is near" same applies for "a better future awaits you". It might not be selling all possessions in this case, but spending quite some resources.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: janoc on December 29, 2017, 04:33:27 pm

The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.


You need to consider that a lot of people in the 1st world countries don't live in the US-style suburbs where everyone lives in a house that has a convenient outlet and a garage for (at least) two large cars, so plugging in their Tesla overnight is no problem.

I do wonder what are you going to do with the apartment dwellers living in the cities? Most of them are lucky to have place to park (outdoors, not a garage). A charge port there? Dream on. Ain't happening in most places, at least not unless you pay for it out of your own pocket.

And two or more cars per family? Again dream on - given the costs of owning a car in Europe, this is rare. Most families have only one car, two are an absolute maximum most people will ever have in one household at a time.

Unfortunately cities with lots of people living in the blocks of flats also happen to be the place where an electric car would make the most sense (pollution reduction, low range isn't a problem, etc.). 

So the range and charging time/possibility to charge issues are very much a large part why these cars aren't going to be massively popular any time soon. There is also the issue of price - right now a tiny electric car costs as much as a large gasoline one, with much less useful value. But that will probably change quicker than the other issues.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SeanB on December 29, 2017, 06:11:36 pm
High density housing will pretty much soon mean you will be doing some form of public transport, or uber or other such non metered taxi service, where the supplier will have the infrastructure to charge an EV in off peak periods, and thus you will not really need the personal vehicle but will time share. Here where there are long distances, the electric vehicle or hybrid is still a good match, as most people typically do up to 100km in a day maximum, and for longer rare trips you are frankly a lot better off renting a vehicle for that.

If I need to move something big I will just go to the Whynott service station 15km away from me, and rent a "Whynott Rent a Bakkie" for a hourly rate or daily rate. No associated costs with depreciation, servicing, insurance and all you have is the well used Toyota/ Isuzu or Nissan with a full tank of fuel, and when you are finished you drive it back, fill up again at the garage, park it literally 5m away from the pump, go pay with your credit card and away you go. Rent for a month a year and still come out ahead on a rental vehicle.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 29, 2017, 06:23:26 pm
This is unfounded, even cruising steadily on a highway a hybrid vehicle can out perform the fuel efficiency of a pure ICE as it can:
Run the engine at the most efficient power point and store excess energy before turning off the engine
In ICEs there is the trend of downsizing the engines and using a turbocharger to make the engine have a very wide range where it operates very efficiently which does save a considerable amount of fuel in real driving circumstances. When comparing pure ICE to hybrid it is hard to compare apples with apples. Often the 'average car' is used however what the 'average' car consumes depends very much on where you look. In the US the average car consumes way more fuel compared to the average car in Europe.

One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all.
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.
How often are you needing to use both of them at the same time for trips too far to use an electric alternative? And then the follow up of for those few times when it really is needed to have multiple long distance vehicles how much would a rental cost?
I live in a household with 2 cars, one for long distance trips, and one for around town. Its never ever been necessary to drive long distances in the around town car and we wouldn't want to as its just too uncomfortable for that.
[/quote]
I has proven to me that having one lesser car means that you rely on the good car to always work. Cars do break down and the difference between getting them fixed the next day or next week is usually a couple of hundred euro. Worse if a car needs replacing. For example: 'my' car is near end of life so we use that for short trips so we can postpone the purchase of a car to 2019. Also smaller cars are not comfortable to drive and seem unsafer to me because they have less body to wreck.

The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.
You need to consider that a lot of people in the 1st world countries don't live in the US-style suburbs where everyone lives in a house that has a convenient outlet and a garage for (at least) two large cars, so plugging in their Tesla overnight is no problem.
Not just that but charging a large number of cars in a suburban area is going to overload the electricity distribution network big time. These have not been designed for this kind of usage. When EVs become widely used then going to a fast charging station just like going to petrol station is the only option. This in turn means that in order to allow wide adoptation of EVs the batteries need to be charged within a few minutes maximum and thus a better battery technology needs to become mainstream first.
Quote
And two or more cars per family? Again dream on - given the costs of owning a car in Europe, this is rare. Most families have only one car, two are an absolute maximum most people will ever have in one household at a time.
That is a bit overly dramatic. On average it may be true but my wife and I aren't the exception in the street for having two cars. Generally speaking people with a job have a car to go to work unless the job happens to be near a train station but usually that is not the case. Worse, in the NL public transport to areas where the companies are located is generally speaking the worse of all. Public transport is also slow. In some cases I can beat the bus on foot and most certainly with my bycicle when it comes to travel time.  -End of rant-
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 29, 2017, 10:15:37 pm
The charge time is a complete non-issue, they plug in the car when they get home from work and it's fully charged the next morning.
You need to consider that a lot of people in the 1st world countries don't live in the US-style suburbs where everyone lives in a house that has a convenient outlet and a garage for (at least) two large cars, so plugging in their Tesla overnight is no problem.

I do wonder what are you going to do with the apartment dwellers living in the cities? Most of them are lucky to have place to park (outdoors, not a garage). A charge port there? Dream on. Ain't happening in most places, at least not unless you pay for it out of your own pocket.

And two or more cars per family? Again dream on - given the costs of owning a car in Europe, this is rare. Most families have only one car, two are an absolute maximum most people will ever have in one household at a time.

Unfortunately cities with lots of people living in the blocks of flats also happen to be the place where an electric car would make the most sense (pollution reduction, low range isn't a problem, etc.). 

So the range and charging time/possibility to charge issues are very much a large part why these cars aren't going to be massively popular any time soon. There is also the issue of price - right now a tiny electric car costs as much as a large gasoline one, with much less useful value. But that will probably change quicker than the other issues.
Price is always going to be a big determinant of market share, there is little incentive for people to personally change to electric unless they will see direct benefits (congestion charge or registration exemption, etc).

But I think you're missing the new ways of using vehicles in cities, for many people they don't need a vehicle day to day, or a vehicle capable of long range operation, or the second vehicle for the household, or a truck for moving house/bulky goods. Its common to rent a vehicle for the last case but renting for the others is also cost effective and practical for many people. This works well in cities where car sharing spaces can be equipped with electric charging infrastructure and the entire community benefits. Even if there is demand on a specific day for more vehicles than there are spaces they can be shuffled in (easier with self driving vehicles) from another storage facility and scheduled to be available when required so the inner city storage problem is largely solved with what appears to be just a few parking spaces on the street.

This is unfounded, even cruising steadily on a highway a hybrid vehicle can out perform the fuel efficiency of a pure ICE as it can:
Run the engine at the most efficient power point and store excess energy before turning off the engine
In ICEs there is the trend of downsizing the engines and using a turbocharger to make the engine have a very wide range where it operates very efficiently which does save a considerable amount of fuel in real driving circumstances. When comparing pure ICE to hybrid it is hard to compare apples with apples. Often the 'average car' is used however what the 'average' car consumes depends very much on where you look. In the US the average car consumes way more fuel compared to the average car in Europe.
That only helps so much, typically a 20-30% reduction in fuel which a hybrid can then save another 30% or so again on top of that. Much of the NEDC (and real world driving) is down in the inefficient band of low torque demand which downsizing and adding a turbo doesn't really address. There is a good paper here showing the driving cycles overlaid on the BSFC plots for a hybrid and non-hybrid vehicle:
"Energy Efficiency Comparison between Hydraulic Hybrid and Hybrid Electric Vehicles"
http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/8/6/4697/htm (http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/8/6/4697/htm)
A battery (or other energy storage device) does not need to be large to get these benefits, a few kWh is sufficient to make a big difference.

One of the most common arguments I see against electric cars is that they're not suitable for ALL of many people's needs, people really get hung up on the assumption that one car has to do it all.
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.
How often are you needing to use both of them at the same time for trips too far to use an electric alternative? And then the follow up of for those few times when it really is needed to have multiple long distance vehicles how much would a rental cost?
I live in a household with 2 cars, one for long distance trips, and one for around town. Its never ever been necessary to drive long distances in the around town car and we wouldn't want to as its just too uncomfortable for that.
I has proven to me that having one lesser car means that you rely on the good car to always work. Cars do break down and the difference between getting them fixed the next day or next week is usually a couple of hundred euro. Worse if a car needs replacing. For example: 'my' car is near end of life so we use that for short trips so we can postpone the purchase of a car to 2019. Also smaller cars are not comfortable to drive and seem unsafer to me because they have less body to wreck.
Car reliability is exceptional and there is a well developed industry around providing rapid assistance should they fail, a rental car is probably even more reliable as they have strong monetary incentives to not have the vehicles fail.

Jumping to car safety and size is another pointless discussion, you can have plug in electric vehicles of any size and shape and they don't have different safety ratings to other cars (the increased mass hasn't been fully explained away).

That you've ignored the simple point that its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric says enough, we know its a very unusual event.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 29, 2017, 11:22:06 pm
I has proven to me that having one lesser car means that you rely on the good car to always work. Cars do break down and the difference between getting them fixed the next day or next week is usually a couple of hundred euro. Worse if a car needs replacing. For example: 'my' car is near end of life so we use that for short trips so we can postpone the purchase of a car to 2019. Also smaller cars are not comfortable to drive and seem unsafer to me because they have less body to wreck.
Car reliability is exceptional and there is a well developed industry around providing rapid assistance should they fail, a rental car is probably even more reliable as they have strong monetary incentives to not have the vehicles fail.
But you pay for that rapid assistance and you pay for depreciation + interest on invested money when you rent a car so it is going to be more expensive quickly compared to owning a car. If you buy a second hand car you pay way less for depreciation and if you can do without one car for a week then things become even cheaper. TCO is the key word here.

Also availability of rental cars isn't guaranteed. In the summer millions of people in Europe use their car to go on a holiday. If all those cars would be rented then they will be more expensive to rent than to own because the cars need to be stored outside the holiday season and there has to be a return on invested money. The same goes for car sharing. It is a solution which is useful for a very limited number of people.
Quote
Jumping to car safety and size is another pointless discussion, you can have plug in electric vehicles of any size and shape and they don't have different safety ratings to other cars (the increased mass hasn't been fully explained away).
Safety ratings are based on predefined laboratory tests which can be cheated. IIRC the Renault Megane was the first car to score 5 stars. However if you crash it with like 5km/h more than the speed used during the test it will kill you. More stuff and distance between you and whatever hits you equals a slower decelleration and more stuff to absorb the impact energy which equals a higher chance of survival.
Quote
That you've ignored the simple point that its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric says enough, we know its a very unusual event.
I'm not ignoring it but an EV or small car wouldn't work for us at all for various reasons. I don't think it is wise to push people into having a certain kind of car depending on what you think is right for them so the point is rather moot. People will choose what works best for them given functionality versus price.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: tszaboo on December 30, 2017, 12:27:15 am
He is right. Solid state lithium battery is just around the corner, and that will reduce the battery cost significantly. First we see a drop around 50%, in about 2-3 years, then some due to the optimization.
Yes, I am saying, that in 2-3 years, EV will cost less than ICE

Without government subsidies?
I'll take that bet.
Actually, I've just checked the prices.
EV: Old Nissan Leaf, 110 HP Automatic, 24KWH battery, price is reduced now to 18100 EUR (with subsidy), comes with a charger, which normally costs 860 EUR.
ICE: Nissan Pulsar, 115HP CVT Automatic, price is 17700 EUR.

So with subsidy, the same car is already the same price?

Still better post a link because I can't find it and Google only comes up with marketing BS from Musk making promises.
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/tesla-finally-launches-a-trucksemi/175/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/tesla-finally-launches-a-trucksemi/175/)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 12:54:41 am
Still better post a link because I can't find it and Google only comes up with marketing BS from Musk making promises.
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/tesla-finally-launches-a-trucksemi/175/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/tesla-finally-launches-a-trucksemi/175/)
Well the article that post is linking to is one the articles I found myself. I'm wondering how you come to the conclusion that solid state batteries will be in volume production within 2 or 3 years by reading that article. It is one of the many marketing BS stories Musk has spread to drive stock value up. The same article quotes various specialists from Bloomberg which have serious doubts about Musk's claims combined with the timeframe. Musk's ideas usually need way more time to become reality. In an article I linked to a few posts earlier the inventor of a solid state Lithium battery (Mr. Goodenough) says 15 years is more likely before we see solid state Lithium batteries for mainstream usage.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 30, 2017, 01:30:43 am
Jumping to car safety and size is another pointless discussion, you can have plug in electric vehicles of any size and shape and they don't have different safety ratings to other cars (the increased mass hasn't been fully explained away).
Safety ratings are based on predefined laboratory tests which can be cheated. IIRC the Renault Megane was the first car to score 5 stars. However if you crash it with like 5km/h more than the speed used during the test it will kill you. More stuff and distance between you and whatever hits you equals a slower decelleration and more stuff to absorb the impact energy which equals a higher chance of survival.
That you've ignored the simple point that its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric says enough, we know its a very unusual event.
I'm not ignoring it but an EV or small car wouldn't work for us at all for various reasons. I don't think it is wise to push people into having a certain kind of car depending on what you think is right for them so the point is rather moot. People will choose what works best for them given functionality versus price.
Except you jumped in on this thread to explain how it wouldn't work for you when the comments weren't directed at you and then wander off with straw man arguments like trying to link the safety of arbitrary small cars to the safety of electric cars. Seems you're the one looking to find problems and we aren't here trying to convince you but you came trying to tell us how it'll never work (and failing to convince us in the process).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 02:56:34 am
Sorry but it is you comming up with statements like its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric. Please provide some solid numbers to back that up! I don't care about your opinion.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 30, 2017, 03:29:15 am
Sorry but it is you comming up with statements like its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric. Please provide some solid numbers to back that up! I don't care about your opinion.
The data is easy to find, daily travel distances per vehicle/person are not pushing the limits of an electric car with a 200km range. We can find well presented data with distributions of the daily travel distance:
https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/ (https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/)
https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/ (https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/)
So the probability that two people in the same household require on the same day separate vehicles each with a range exceeding 200km is tiny. You can even find comprehensive analysis here:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371)
One 400km range electric car would satisfy as a substitute for 80% of the households with multiple cars without any adaption or change in their behaviours. With small and infrequent changes in behaviour or fewer households the battery range can be reduced substantially. Oh they also looked at overall cost savings etc if you really want to get into the details.

I'm not even trying to get to those lofty goals but pointing out that with just a little change to the existing transport plans the majority of people could replace one of their multiple cars with an electric vehicle, yes there will be some changes and the occasional rare day/event that can't be covered but rental cars, borrowing vehicles, or changing behaviours are possible solutions.

Over to you to provide the data which says otherwise. Even if you have some particular cases where you can recall your specific requirement I doubt they are even a routine occurrence. Once people live in remote areas which require long distance travel they are attuned to the costs and plan very carefully to share as much transport as possible but thats coming from a perspective of a country where people do live hours away by car from the nearest town which is not typical and a tiny proportion of the population.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on December 30, 2017, 06:32:47 am
This greatly depends on how you calculate TCO and I assume these numbers only look at purchase price and maintenance costs during the first few years and not the entire usefull life of a car. If you calculate TCO over the first 100k km (the typical lease period over here) then the depreciation is a large chunk. If I take my own car as an example. It cost nearly 28k euro when new and when I bought it with around 140k km I paid 5k euro. That means that the previous owners paid over 16 cents per km for just the depreciation. I OTOH pay around 3 cents per km in depreciation. It is unclear how that equation works out for an EV. If a used EV is going to need a new battery pack it may be worth a negative number by the time the first owner is going to buy a new car.

When the original Prius came out I predicted a catastrophe. I was certain that within 10 years there would be piles of them in junkyards with nothing more than dead batteries which cost $10k at the time. Turns out I was wrong, the batteries in the Prius turned out to be very reliable, I know of multiple 1st gen models still running the original battery and replacement batteries have dropped down to around $2k. The battery replacement cost is a concern for pure electrics but I'm not going to be too quick to predict doom and gloom, the last time I did that I was wrong.

Whatever the case I know several people with electric cars now and I've seen the numbers, they are far cheaper to run in the current economic climate. Our electricity is cheap and gasoline is relatively expensive compared to other parts of the US.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on December 30, 2017, 06:51:43 am
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.


That only works if people can charge their cars at home. In densely populated areas that is impossible and people will depend on 'fast' charging stations. I have to park my car in the street. If I want to charge an EV from home I'd need an extention cord which is at least 50 meters long.


That greatly depends on how many miles you drive and how you value your own safety. My current car (a Ford) is near the 320k km/ 200k miles mark. What is needed to get another 160k km/ 100k miles out of it are: a new timing belt, new clutch, new shock absorbers (safety), airco overhaul (safety) and some other stuff like brake fluid and new power steering hydraulic lines. That will set me back around 1700 euro which is way more than the car is worth.  OTOH the car starts to rust at the wheel arches, the engine is using some oil, the gas mileage isn't that great and there is no guarantee nothing else vital will break down (over here we have annual mandatory vehicle checks which a car must pass to be road legal). All in all it is more sensible for me to stretch usage into 2019 and look for a different car then (which brings me back to my wife having an equivalent car we can use the same way so no hurry). I'm eyeballing a newer model with a 1 litre turbocharged engine but I need more info on reliability and issues. A newer car is likely to have safety improvements like ESP.



Ok so electric probably won't work for you, but as with the solar road thread I've noticed you are prone to assuming that because something doesn't work for you, it can't possibly work for most other people. There are tens of millions of people who do primarily short trips, and even more who could get by with one short range car. 50 years ago most families had only one car and yet somehow they survived, surely most families today could make a few lifestyle adjustments to get by with one long range car? Again maybe it won't work for you, but that doesn't mean it won't work for most people, but like you, most people excel at making excuses for why something wouldn't possibly work for them.

Impossible? I think not. If there is space to park a car, there's space to plug it in somewhere. If they live in such a densely populated area that they have nowhere to plug in their car then an even better solution would be to use public transit as millions of urban dwellers already do. You might be surprised at the number of people who own no car at all, and again, not everyone lives in a dense urban environment. Have a look on google earth, there are massive sprawling suburbs all over the world, many tens of millions of people live in single family homes and duplexes, millions more in condos or apartments with dedicated parking. There are millions and millions of people who can simply plug in at night, even if you can't.

I value my safety quite a lot, it's the reason I drive a Volvo. My '87 got rear ended by a tanker semi that was going ~50 mph while I was stopped, once everything came to a stop I opened the door, got out and walked away without so much as a scratch. Despite being 30 years old the car performed absolutely flawlessly, the crumple zones and reinforced cage did exactly what they were designed to do. Being old doesn't mean unsafe. They generally don't salt the roads out here so rust is not an issue. Unlike most people I repair all the little stuff as needed so my cars never become dilapidated beaters. I've never understood the "spent more than the car is worth" argument, what the car is worth is irrelevant unless you intend to sell the car. When I bought my '90 wagon I paid $2250 for the car, then I spent another $2500 on all the maintenance and cosmetic restoration, that adds up to well over the book value of the car but so what? It's in excellent condition now and drives like a brand new car. Where can I buy a 1990 model that's in perfect condition with all the maintenance done? The reason the book value is less is because nobody sells old cars that are in perfect shape. Either you pay the money fixing up and older car or you pay a whole lot more money in the depreciation of a newer car. Nothing newer than mid-late 90s does anything for me. Whenever I have to drive a new car it always feels so nice to get back into one of my classics. I hate modern cars.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: janoc on December 30, 2017, 10:09:27 am
High density housing will pretty much soon mean you will be doing some form of public transport, or uber or other such non metered taxi service, where the supplier will have the infrastructure to charge an EV in off peak periods, and thus you will not really need the personal vehicle but will time share. Here where there are long distances, the electric vehicle or hybrid is still a good match, as most people typically do up to 100km in a day maximum, and for longer rare trips you are frankly a lot better off renting a vehicle for that.

If I need to move something big I will just go to the Whynott service station 15km away from me, and rent a "Whynott Rent a Bakkie" for a hourly rate or daily rate. No associated costs with depreciation, servicing, insurance and all you have is the well used Toyota/ Isuzu or Nissan with a full tank of fuel, and when you are finished you drive it back, fill up again at the garage, park it literally 5m away from the pump, go pay with your credit card and away you go. Rent for a month a year and still come out ahead on a rental vehicle.

That's very much a fantasy. Yes, you may not need a car to commute to work everyday if the public transport works because you live in the middle of a large city and have a good paying job (so you can afford renting  the car occasionally too).  But we are far from public transport being ubiquitous, going everywhere where needed (and not only where there are enough paying clients to make it profitable) and it still doesn't cover long distance travel.

Using "Uber" or renting a car works great in theory - if you are rich enough to be able to afford it. I suggest you visit e.g. one of the Parisian suburbs (which I live some 40minutes from) and tell the people there they should get rid of their old polluting cars and call a taxi/Uber or rent a car. These suburbs or "banlieues" are usually full of blocks of flats, being typically homes of low income families.

Only few of these suburbs are served by train/public transport, so the car is often the only option how to actually get the 10-20km to work. There is also little to no infrastructure there (schools, hospitals, shopping, etc., certainly no car rental or even self-service car sharing - that is only downtown), so again, without a car you are screwed. And most people living in the blocks of flats there are low wage laborers (if they have work at all), so very ill suited to renting a car or taking a taxi to work every day. I guess you haven't checked how much would that actually cost you if you had to take e.g. a 10km commute every day by calling a taxi (or Uber).

The above still doesn't take into account the ubiquitous delays and problems on the public transport, the trains (go to a business meeting after spending 30-40 minutes hanging from an overhead strap on a jam-packed train!), etc.

And that is an example from Paris, where there actually is a fairly dense public transport system already (metro, surface trains, trams & buses), there is also an electric car sharing system (Autolib'), bike sharing (Velib'), taxi service and Uber. There are plenty of cities which have the same problems - and don't have that level of public infrastructure in place.

E.g. in Compiegne (a town of about 40k people, some 80km north of Paris where I live) we have free buses, going about once/twice per hour. If the bus isn't going where or when you need to go, you are on your own. So a car is pretty much a necessity if you live or work in an outlying part of the town. There is no Uber (too small town for it), there is no car sharing, at best you can book a taxi. Electric car charge ports are only at large shopping centers outside of the town, so useless to actually recharge your car overnight (unless you have two - one charging and another one driving).

Please do a bit of research before you say stuff like this next time because it makes you very much sound like that infamous aristocrat who, when told that people don't have bread and are starving, replied with "they should eat cake instead".


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: janoc on December 30, 2017, 10:26:02 am

That is a bit overly dramatic. On average it may be true but my wife and I aren't the exception in the street for having two cars. Generally speaking people with a job have a car to go to work unless the job happens to be near a train station but usually that is not the case. Worse, in the NL public transport to areas where the companies are located is generally speaking the worse of all. Public transport is also slow. In some cases I can beat the bus on foot and most certainly with my bycicle when it comes to travel time.  -End of rant-

Please, keep in mind that not everyone lives in the relatively rich Western Europe, with a good salary that can afford it. Someone did mention this here before already - for many people a car is a huge expenditure, both buying it and running it and can ill-afford to have a second vehicle in the household. Once you pass the former West Germany border you will discover that people buy a car for 10-15 years, often longer. For many buying a car is the second largest expense in their life after buying a home and will maybe change it once or twice in their lifetime.

I cannot speak about Netherlands, but e.g. in France where I live, a lot of people struggle with day to day expenses already. I have never said that it is impossible to own multiple vehicles, only that it is comparatively rare. Especially people who earn low to average wages would struggle with it. And if you go to e.g. Denmark or Sweden, there the state makes owning a car prohibitively expensive with crazy taxes and fees. I have lived there and a lot of people simply couldn't afford to own a car there due to this. On the other hand, the public transport and general infrastructure is much better adapted to a "car-less" life there than elsewhere.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 30, 2017, 10:56:44 am
High density housing will pretty much soon mean you will be doing some form of public transport, or uber or other such non metered taxi service, where the supplier will have the infrastructure to charge an EV in off peak periods, and thus you will not really need the personal vehicle but will time share. Here where there are long distances, the electric vehicle or hybrid is still a good match, as most people typically do up to 100km in a day maximum, and for longer rare trips you are frankly a lot better off renting a vehicle for that.

If I need to move something big I will just go to the Whynott service station 15km away from me, and rent a "Whynott Rent a Bakkie" for a hourly rate or daily rate. No associated costs with depreciation, servicing, insurance and all you have is the well used Toyota/ Isuzu or Nissan with a full tank of fuel, and when you are finished you drive it back, fill up again at the garage, park it literally 5m away from the pump, go pay with your credit card and away you go. Rent for a month a year and still come out ahead on a rental vehicle.

That's very much a fantasy. Yes, you may not need a car to commute to work everyday if the public transport works because you live in the middle of a large city and have a good paying job (so you can afford renting  the car occasionally too).  But we are far from public transport being ubiquitous, going everywhere where needed (and not only where there are enough paying clients to make it profitable) and it still doesn't cover long distance travel.

Using "Uber" or renting a car works great in theory - if you are rich enough to be able to afford it. I suggest you visit e.g. one of the Parisian suburbs (which I live some 40minutes from) and tell the people there they should get rid of their old polluting cars and call a taxi/Uber or rent a car. These suburbs or "banlieues" are usually full of blocks of flats, being typically homes of low income families.

Only few of these suburbs are served by train/public transport, so the car is often the only option how to actually get the 10-20km to work. There is also little to no infrastructure there (schools, hospitals, shopping, etc., certainly no car rental or even self-service car sharing - that is only downtown), so again, without a car you are screwed. And most people living in the blocks of flats there are low wage laborers (if they have work at all), so very ill suited to renting a car or taking a taxi to work every day. I guess you haven't checked how much would that actually cost you if you had to take e.g. a 10km commute every day by calling a taxi (or Uber).
The low wage workers around these parts have figured out how to avoid needing the cost of owning multiple cars per household, they ride share with other employees to the work site. Each morning you see the planned pickups occurring on their sharp little schedules, stopping no more than a few seconds for the waiting worker before heading off again. Sharing all the costs of fuel, parking, etc makes it much more affordable while still retaining most of the benefits of a direct journey at the required time.

Through my life I've car pooled, caught public transport, used the company bus, walked, cycled, and combined all of those travel modes in various combinations to get to and from work. Not everyone can access public transport but it sure is convenient (and usually cheap) when you can, thats all part of the decision making which should be going in to deciding where to live and work. I wouldn't want to live in an environment where I'm dependent on having a car but some people are happy to choose that for their own reasons.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 10:59:20 am
Sorry but it is you comming up with statements like its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric. Please provide some solid numbers to back that up! I don't care about your opinion.
The data is easy to find, daily travel distances per vehicle/person are not pushing the limits of an electric car with a 200km range. We can find well presented data with distributions of the daily travel distance:
https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/ (https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/)
https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/ (https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/)
So the probability that two people in the same household require on the same day separate vehicles each with a range exceeding 200km is tiny. You can even find comprehensive analysis here:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371)
One 400km range electric car would satisfy as a substitute for 80% of the households with multiple cars without any adaption or change in their behaviours.
So it doesn't work for 20% (1 out of 5). That isn't extremely rare like you told us.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 11:07:21 am
My wife and I have equivalent cars which both need to be able to drive far and I think that is the same for many people.

That only works if people can charge their cars at home. In densely populated areas that is impossible and people will depend on 'fast' charging stations. I have to park my car in the street. If I want to charge an EV from home I'd need an extention cord which is at least 50 meters long.

That greatly depends on how many miles you drive and how you value your own safety. My current car (a Ford) is near the 320k km/ 200k miles mark. What is needed to get another 160k km/ 100k miles out of it are: a new timing belt, new clutch, new shock absorbers (safety), airco overhaul (safety) and some other stuff like brake fluid and new power steering hydraulic lines. That will set me back around 1700 euro which is way more than the car is worth.  OTOH the car starts to rust at the wheel arches, the engine is using some oil, the gas mileage isn't that great and there is no guarantee nothing else vital will break down (over here we have annual mandatory vehicle checks which a car must pass to be road legal). All in all it is more sensible for me to stretch usage into 2019 and look for a different car then (which brings me back to my wife having an equivalent car we can use the same way so no hurry). I'm eyeballing a newer model with a 1 litre turbocharged engine but I need more info on reliability and issues. A newer car is likely to have safety improvements like ESP.
Ok so electric probably won't work for you, but as with the solar road thread I've noticed you are prone to assuming that because something doesn't work for you, it can't possibly work for most other people.There are millions and millions of people who can simply plug in at night, even if you can't.
But now you are doing what you are accusing me for doing: because it works for you, it can work for many. All I'm saying is that you have to be carefull because the situation varies a lot by area and country so you can't have a one-size-fits-all solution.

Quote
I value my safety quite a lot, it's the reason I drive a Volvo. My '87 got rear ended by a tanker semi that was going ~50 mph while I was stopped, once everything came to a stop I opened the door, got out and walked away without so much as a scratch. Despite being 30 years old the car performed absolutely flawlessly, the crumple zones and reinforced cage did exactly what they were designed to do. Being old doesn't mean unsafe.
Volvo is known for their safety in the pre-Ford years. Still features like ABS and ESP do make a difference. A couple of months ago I nearly ran into someone who ignored a red light at an intersection. Thanks to ABS I could brake hard and still steer the car around the other car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 30, 2017, 11:33:09 am
Sorry but it is you comming up with statements like its extremely rare for a multi vehicle household to use all their vehicles simultaneously in a way that is incompatible with one of them being electric. Please provide some solid numbers to back that up! I don't care about your opinion.
The data is easy to find, daily travel distances per vehicle/person are not pushing the limits of an electric car with a 200km range. We can find well presented data with distributions of the daily travel distance:
https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/ (https://chartingtransport.com/2011/06/19/travel-variations-across-victoria/)
https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/ (https://evobsession.com/best-electric-car-for-the-average-american/)
So the probability that two people in the same household require on the same day separate vehicles each with a range exceeding 200km is tiny. You can even find comprehensive analysis here:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X16000371)
One 400km range electric car would satisfy as a substitute for 80% of the households with multiple cars without any adaption or change in their behaviours.
So it doesn't work for 20% (1 out of 5). That isn't extremely rare like you told us.
Thats 20% would need to make some changes to their routine on some days of the year, which brings me back to the point I keep making:
pointing out that with just a little change to the existing transport plans the majority of people could replace one of their multiple cars with an electric vehicle, yes there will be some changes and the occasional rare day/event that can't be covered but rental cars, borrowing vehicles, or changing behaviours are possible solutions.
That excellent research I pointed you to noted that 80% of households could replace their 2nd car with an electric vehicle of only 220km range and still have at worst 12 days a year requiring an "adaption". Or with the 300km range electric vehicle 80% of households could operate without any adaption to their vehicle use. Since you don't appear to have read the paper you know what an adaption could include? Charing a vehicle during the day....   as if no one ever fills their petrol car with fuel during the day and the car would never be parked anywhere it could be charged. You could find arbitrary points of XX% of households for particular range vehicles and rates of adaption but the paper only reports up to 80%.

Having a few days a year that might have to be planned differently for a minority of households are extremely rare events, not a routine challenge that prevents the uptake of electric cars, and not something that is impossible to plan around. You can flip it around and say that an electric car owner wouldn't want to replace their vehicle with a petrol engine because they don't want to travel to petrol stations, with either type of vehicle there is some planning required to operate it within its capabilities and you plan journeys around that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 11:45:18 am
This greatly depends on how you calculate TCO and I assume these numbers only look at purchase price and maintenance costs during the first few years and not the entire usefull life of a car. If you calculate TCO over the first 100k km (the typical lease period over here) then the depreciation is a large chunk. If I take my own car as an example. It cost nearly 28k euro when new and when I bought it with around 140k km I paid 5k euro. That means that the previous owners paid over 16 cents per km for just the depreciation. I OTOH pay around 3 cents per km in depreciation. It is unclear how that equation works out for an EV. If a used EV is going to need a new battery pack it may be worth a negative number by the time the first owner is going to buy a new car.
When the original Prius came out I predicted a catastrophe. I was certain that within 10 years there would be piles of them in junkyards with nothing more than dead batteries which cost $10k at the time. Turns out I was wrong, the batteries in the Prius turned out to be very reliable, I know of multiple 1st gen models still running the original battery and replacement batteries have dropped down to around $2k. The battery replacement cost is a concern for pure electrics but I'm not going to be too quick to predict doom and gloom, the last time I did that I was wrong.
True but it is something to consider when purchasing a used EV. It would make life easier if there is some way to read the state of health of a battery pack. Unfortunately that technology is still under development. I had a similar issue when buying my current car. My previous cars had diesel engines and the last one suffered quite a few engine related issues common for that model. All in all modern diesels have become relatively unreliable beyond the first 150k km and expensive to repair so I didn't want to take the risk and bought a car which runs on gasoline. It is more expensive to run but I don't risk needing to spend several thousands on engine repairs which cannot be predicted. Just like a battery you can't see how far an engine is worn and what is about to fail from the outside. You can only go by looking at problems which happen often and choose to take the chance or not.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SeanB on December 30, 2017, 12:10:01 pm
High density housing will pretty much soon mean you will be doing some form of public transport, or uber or other such non metered taxi service, where the supplier will have the infrastructure to charge an EV in off peak periods, and thus you will not really need the personal vehicle but will time share. Here where there are long distances, the electric vehicle or hybrid is still a good match, as most people typically do up to 100km in a day maximum, and for longer rare trips you are frankly a lot better off renting a vehicle for that.

If I need to move something big I will just go to the Whynott service station 15km away from me, and rent a "Whynott Rent a Bakkie" for a hourly rate or daily rate. No associated costs with depreciation, servicing, insurance and all you have is the well used Toyota/ Isuzu or Nissan with a full tank of fuel, and when you are finished you drive it back, fill up again at the garage, park it literally 5m away from the pump, go pay with your credit card and away you go. Rent for a month a year and still come out ahead on a rental vehicle.

That's very much a fantasy. Yes, you may not need a car to commute to work everyday if the public transport works because you live in the middle of a large city and have a good paying job (so you can afford renting  the car occasionally too).  But we are far from public transport being ubiquitous, going everywhere where needed (and not only where there are enough paying clients to make it profitable) and it still doesn't cover long distance travel.

Using "Uber" or renting a car works great in theory - if you are rich enough to be able to afford it. I suggest you visit e.g. one of the Parisian suburbs (which I live some 40minutes from) and tell the people there they should get rid of their old polluting cars and call a taxi/Uber or rent a car. These suburbs or "banlieues" are usually full of blocks of flats, being typically homes of low income families.

Only few of these suburbs are served by train/public transport, so the car is often the only option how to actually get the 10-20km to work. There is also little to no infrastructure there (schools, hospitals, shopping, etc., certainly no car rental or even self-service car sharing - that is only downtown), so again, without a car you are screwed. And most people living in the blocks of flats there are low wage laborers (if they have work at all), so very ill suited to renting a car or taking a taxi to work every day. I guess you haven't checked how much would that actually cost you if you had to take e.g. a 10km commute every day by calling a taxi (or Uber).
The low wage workers around these parts have figured out how to avoid needing the cost of owning multiple cars per household, they ride share with other employees to the work site. Each morning you see the planned pickups occurring on their sharp little schedules, stopping no more than a few seconds for the waiting worker before heading off again. Sharing all the costs of fuel, parking, etc makes it much more affordable while still retaining most of the benefits of a direct journey at the required time.

Through my life I've car pooled, caught public transport, used the company bus, walked, cycled, and combined all of those travel modes in various combinations to get to and from work. Not everyone can access public transport but it sure is convenient (and usually cheap) when you can, thats all part of the decision making which should be going in to deciding where to live and work. I wouldn't want to live in an environment where I'm dependent on having a car but some people are happy to choose that for their own reasons.

The vast majority of the people here in South Africa use public transport, with relatively few being able to afford to either own or run a vehicle, unless they are in the small section that is the middle class. The average commute for them can be 2 different taxis every day to work and another 2 in the afternoon, and there are a good number who wake up, catch a minibus taxi to a train station, catch a 2 hour train to a hub and then catch another taxi to work. Some of the people i work with wake up each morning at 4AM to catch a 4H30 train, then get to the city at 7AM and walk to work, and in the afternoon they only get home after 7PM. Others do a one way trip of 50km plus to work in a minibus taxi every day. they will never be able to afford a car, though the children might be able to do so one day, and will often be there to drop off the parents in a lift club if they can make it to the vanishing middle class.

Just remember the world is not all composed of the EU or USA, the vast majoritory of people will never ever be able to afford a vehicle of their own, and in most cases they will never travel in a vehicle that is not also moving 10 others or more as well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: jonovid on December 30, 2017, 01:43:40 pm
mainstream? probably not with today's technology,  however as a cheap runabout shopping trolley.
when cheap electric cars  get recycled as an aluminium can on wheels.
a $15.000 disposable electric production car. that has
less automation = millennials, need to learn how to drive a car, 
no power steering, no power windows ,less doors less glass   
a 3 door hatchback, no in car entertainment system. that's an extra.
lower gearing 95kmh max speed. =  less powerful motors. 80 km range. its a four seat shopping trolley.

tesla designs are too up market.  to expensive to be mainstream.
 if you can afford a tesla you can also afford a 4x4 suv with towing capacity.
 life is about the long weekend down under.  ;D
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 03:23:45 pm
mainstream? probably not with today's technology,  however as a cheap runabout shopping trolley.
when cheap electric cars  get recycled as an aluminium can on wheels.
a $15.000 disposable electric production car. that has
less automation = millennials, need to learn how to drive a car, 
no power steering, no power windows ,less doors less glass   
a 3 door hatchback, no in car entertainment system. that's an extra.
lower gearing 95kmh max speed. =  less powerful motors. 80 km range. its a four seat shopping trolley.
That already exists and is called a golf cart. I've seen these being used for just what you describe.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on December 30, 2017, 03:54:00 pm
Electrics will be fairly niche for the foreseeable future barring some drastic price drop (don't see that happening bar a new battery innovation), massive government subsidies, or a huge oil shock.
Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.
I can clearly see that points of view really depends per country/continent. (in general from comments in this topic)

In dense and highly populated European areas, most people think electric is the way to go. (me included)
There has been done a lot of research and over 80-90% of the people only use a car for daily commuting.
Which is in most cases an average around 20-50km (max). You charge your car at night, go to work the next day.
I know many people happily doing that for years now. Which is VERY convenient actually.
No hassle with fueling up on time etc.

This are also exactly the distances were fuel based engines perform not so well.
In these dense areas they are even trying pilots that people don't really own a car anymore, but that you can just use a car that's parked.
Kind of renting a car on the fly. Once again, this works great in big cities or areas with heaps of people.
That's also were the most pollution is coming from.
Rural Australia is a very different story.

I find your argument about 'convenience' pretty weak. It's just a matter of different thinking.
There are pros and cons to both solution, and I don't think in a sense of convenience neither is better or worse, it's just different.
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.

The main issue is that I don't understand why it's one or the other.
You can have both technologies, just depending on the needs of the customer.
I also wouldn't trust an electric car in the middle of the outback in Australia with barely any charge points.
Go to London, Berlin etc and it's a very different story.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 04:19:12 pm
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on December 30, 2017, 04:22:18 pm
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SiliconWizard on December 30, 2017, 07:43:07 pm
mainstream? probably not with today's technology,  however as a cheap runabout shopping trolley.
(...)
tesla designs are too up market.  to expensive to be mainstream.
 if you can afford a tesla you can also afford a 4x4 suv with towing capacity.

Agree with that.

People also have to realize that Tesla would probably not be alive anymore by now had it not benefited from large government subsidies of all kinds, direct (see below) and indirect (tax cuts and credits to buyers in a lot of countries).
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html)

For electric vehicles to get out of niche markets and become a sustainable business, we need to solve drastic energy issues. Pretty much the same as for energy in general in the future before our whole economy collapses.

A lot of countries already try getting people to lower their electricity consumption. Maintream electric cars would make it explode. How could that ever work? We have to solve the underlying issue first.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gmb42 on December 30, 2017, 09:24:12 pm
A viewpoint on when the likely crossover point on EV vs. ICE costs might occur is in this lengthy article (https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/25/timeline-electric-vehicle-revolution-via-lower-battery-prices-supercharging-lower-battery-prices/).

TLDR; battery costs coming down due to economies of scale in production, charge times decreasing due to incremental battery technology improvements and higher power charging stations (350kW), ICE production costs to go up due to emission controls leading to parity by 2024-25 for nearly all car segments.

Note that CleanTechnica are pro-EV, but at least there are numbers in the article that can be somewhat objectively discussed.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2017, 11:59:01 pm
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list. From what I've read on car related fora is that people tend to look mainly at fuel economy when buying a car which is used for commuting.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on December 31, 2017, 12:04:09 am
We have to solve the underlying issue first.
Than we can close this whole topic straight away.
The underlying issue is that we are with WAY to many people on this planet.
That's gonna be around 10 billions in 2050.

That's 1.3 times as much as today.

Btw, there is much MORE than just plain battery costs and all these little details.
It's also about infrastructure and simply about the fact that after a while fossil fuels are just not really gonna last anymore.
Moving fuel to a petrol station costs labor, a lot of equipment (using fuel to get fuel somewhere  |O), and is sometimes even pretty dangerous (flammable).
Electricity doesn't have these downsides and is cheaper to 'make in bulk' (means; easier to make electricity and distribute)

But personally I think the most important reason, is that the western world (Europe) is a lot less dependent from oil, that mostly comes from the middle east and Russia.
So there are some (good) political reasons for it as well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: dr.diesel on December 31, 2017, 12:18:14 am
That already exists and is called a golf cart. I've seen these being used for just what you describe.

I have an electric Golf Cart and use it extensively for local utility work, surpub for the task.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 31, 2017, 01:48:34 am
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list.
Which neatly brings us right back to the point that when you're travelling long distances there is usually more than one person in the car so their "daily" car doesn't need to have those capabilities. Either you're both needing to travel long distances independently at which point charging while taking breaks is a good idea, or you're travelling with another person who isn't using their vehicle and you can pick the most appropriate for the particular journey.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2017, 02:12:49 am
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list.
Which neatly brings us right back to the point that when you're travelling long distances there is usually more than one person in the car so their "daily" car doesn't need to have those capabilities. Either you're both needing to travel long distances independently at which point charging while taking breaks is a good idea, or you're travelling with another person who isn't using their vehicle and you can pick the most appropriate for the particular journey.
I my situation it doesn't work that way. It can depend on all kind of things like needing a repair (car temporary out of order), the car needs to be washed, there is still has some luggage inside, different kind/state of tyres, not wanting to make too many kilometers with one particular car to postpone purchase, etc, etc which car gets used most.

Having 1.5 cars instead of 2 will limit your freedom no matter how you turn it around. The article you linked to earlier states that very clear. And need I remind you people buy cars based on 1% of their usage scenario so how likely is it they are going to adapt? If they would be willing to adapt they would already have bought a smaller (cheaper & more limited) car. Ergo your assumption people want to 'make do' with an electric go-kart is wrong because there is a distinct difference between 'can do' and 'willing to do'.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on December 31, 2017, 03:04:24 am
After a few hours of driving someone needs to have break for at least 20-30 minutes anyway, which is enough to super charge your car for something like 90% or so.
Only if you drive alone. My wife and I take turns driving and changing takes a few minutes max.
I guess personal preference. Most people I know really would like to take a break after a couple of hours.
But again, the biggest part of how traffic is being used it not for these few holiday trips, but for commuting to work.
True it is personal preference. Taking a 20 to 30 minute break every 2 hours would make a trip very longwinded for us. With breaks that long you also arrive much later at the hotel (or other destination) which just cuts into dinner time and/or sleep time.
As several have written before: most people buy a car based on 1% of their usage scenario because they can't have multiple cars for several reasons (purchase price, taxes, parking space, etc). This makes the 'most trips are commutes' point completely moot because that is not the driving factor when buying a car. For example when people tow a caravan once or twice a year they look for a car which is up to that task and it is number one on their requirement list.
Which neatly brings us right back to the point that when you're travelling long distances there is usually more than one person in the car so their "daily" car doesn't need to have those capabilities. Either you're both needing to travel long distances independently at which point charging while taking breaks is a good idea, or you're travelling with another person who isn't using their vehicle and you can pick the most appropriate for the particular journey.
I my situation it doesn't work that way. It can depend on all kind of things like needing a repair (car temporary out of order), the car needs to be washed, there is still has some luggage inside, different kind/state of tyres, not wanting to make too many kilometers with one particular car to postpone purchase, etc, etc which car gets used most.

Having 1.5 cars instead of 2 will limit your freedom no matter how you turn it around. The article you linked to earlier states that very clear. And need I remind you people buy cars based on 1% of their usage scenario so how likely is it they are going to adapt? If they would be willing to adapt they would already have bought a smaller (cheaper & more limited) car. Ergo your assumption people want to 'make do' with an electric go-kart is wrong because there is a distinct difference between 'can do' and 'willing to do'.
Except we're at the point now where electric cars are available at many price/model points equivalent to many different fuel powered cars and the primary difference is they have a limited range and slower energy filling/charging, so its not a comparison to a "lesser" car 0.5 as you say but the same car with a different fuel source. You've continually tried to frame electric cars as inferior in some way without direct comparisons to similar vehicles. As the paper pointed to there is no need for most people to adapt, they already use their cars in a way that is compatible with an electric vehicle.

TCO varies significantly from region to region and may swing either way for particular people which is true of cars in general and the petrol/diesel divisions.

You're welcome to have redundant vehicles with identical capabilities as your choice but trying to project that view onto everyone else is obnoxious, especially when we've been able to present the data to show how wrong your point of view has been.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on December 31, 2017, 02:15:27 pm
We can all come up with little personal and individual reasons.
The way how the market works is look at the bigger numbers.
Like I said before, how are most cars being used and how can you cut the most significant number from that.
90% of all cars are being used by just one person only (yes, using a >1000kg machine to move 70kg person)

In that perspective an electric car works much better than a combustion engine.
Add safety and noise pollution to it as well. (although a big junk is mostly because of the noise from the tires, a significant part is still the engine)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2017, 02:45:51 pm
We can all come up with little personal and individual reasons.
The way how the market works is look at the bigger numbers.
Like I said before, how are most cars being used and how can you cut the most significant number from that.
90% of all cars are being used by just one person only (yes, using a >1000kg machine to move 70kg person)
What you see nowadays is that electric cars get bought by people to whom an electric car is beneficial. Saying that an electric car works for nearly everyone with the big IF they change the way they use the car is just plain wrong. In such a situation an electric car basically gets degraded to a make-do crutch and is similar to advising people to use a horse & carriage instead of a proper car. If you look on car related fora at why people buy a certain car the 1% usage scenario is at the top of the requirements list so a car which can't do what is important to the buyer isn't going to fit the requirements. It is as simple as that. Nearly good enough isn't good enough.

All in all let the market do its job indeed and when better/cheaper/more versatile electric cars become available more people will buy them.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on December 31, 2017, 03:19:30 pm
We can all come up with little personal and individual reasons.
The way how the market works is look at the bigger numbers.
Like I said before, how are most cars being used and how can you cut the most significant number from that.
90% of all cars are being used by just one person only (yes, using a >1000kg machine to move 70kg person)
What you see nowadays is that electric cars get bought by people to whom an electric car is beneficial. Saying that an electric car works for nearly everyone with the big IF they change the way they use the car is just plain wrong. In such a situation an electric car basically gets degraded to a make-do crutch and is similar to advising people to use a horse & carriage instead of a proper car. If you look on car related fora at why people buy a certain car the 1% usage scenario is at the top of the requirements list so a car which can't do what is important to the buyer isn't going to fit the requirements. It is as simple as that. Nearly good enough isn't good enough.

All in all let the market do its job indeed and when better/cheaper/more versatile electric cars become available more people will buy them.
I agree with you, but keep in mind that the government also has a big part in this for multiple reasons.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Blocco on January 02, 2018, 02:15:40 pm
Looking at many of the posts here I was beginning to think the title of this thread was; "100 contrived reasons why YOU don't want an electric car" :-//

To reply to the original question, I think, here in the UK, we will see a significant increase in popularity within 5 years and mainstream acceptance i.e. where two-car families typically own at least one electric car in around 10 years.

However, in the UK at least, now is probably the best time to drive an electric car because of low second-hand prices and substantial running cost savings compared to a petrol or diesel vehicle. My 2015 Nissan LEAF saves me around £2000 ukp per year compared to my previous diesel car and is far more suited to the daily commute, it's the closest thing to free driving we are ever likely to see.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on January 02, 2018, 03:57:56 pm
However, in the UK at least, now is probably the best time to drive an electric car because of low second-hand prices and substantial running cost savings compared to a petrol or diesel vehicle. My 2015 Nissan LEAF saves me around £2000 ukp per year compared to my previous diesel car and is far more suited to the daily commute, it's the closest thing to free driving we are ever likely to see.
Most European countries developed a model of massive taxation on transportation fuel to fund their transport infrastructure. They are always going to need that money which current electric car users are saving. As the electric car market grows it will be interesting to see how they try to manage the transition from subsidising electric cars as a stimulus, to clawing enough cash from electric car users to fund the roads.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 02, 2018, 09:06:54 pm
However, in the UK at least, now is probably the best time to drive an electric car because of low second-hand prices and substantial running cost savings compared to a petrol or diesel vehicle. My 2015 Nissan LEAF saves me around £2000 ukp per year compared to my previous diesel car and is far more suited to the daily commute, it's the closest thing to free driving we are ever likely to see.
Most European countries developed a model of massive taxation on transportation fuel to fund their transport infrastructure. They are always going to need that money which current electric car users are saving. As the electric car market grows it will be interesting to see how they try to manage the transition from subsidising electric cars as a stimulus, to clawing enough cash from electric car users to fund the roads.
Thats an ageing myth, are you perhaps a time traveller from 1937?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motoring_taxation_in_the_United_Kingdom (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motoring_taxation_in_the_United_Kingdom)
Because thats when the segregation of funds ended and the income entered general revenue. Though it seems the UK continues to use these sources as a cash cow:
http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/consumer-news/89224/only-a-quarter-of-car-tax-is-spent-on-roads (http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/consumer-news/89224/only-a-quarter-of-car-tax-is-spent-on-roads)
2018 has 31.7 billion (3.9%) noted for the transport budget, 11.4 billion of that going to railways which leaves much less than 15 billion (2%) total for roads. These don't dominate the budget and it will be easy to find other taxation to cover the loss of fuel taxes, just changing the vehicle excise duty slowly over time so that electric vehicles also pay their share will do it. The more difficult part is trying to match some sort of user pays scale so that people pay proportionally for what they're using such as with distance and axle load factors.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 03, 2018, 12:48:44 am
It could be argued that electric cars already *are* mainstream, at least in more affluent techy areas. Here on the outskirts of Seattle I have 3 good friends who all have pure electric cars as their daily driver. One is a Chevy Bolt and the other two are Kias. Then there are two coworkers and my dad who have them, Ford Focus electric I think is one, and Nissan Leafs. I don't personally know anyone who has a Tesla but I see them on the road pretty much every day, electric cars are all over the place.

An electric with a 50 mile range could easily work for 95% of my driving which is my commute to work and various errands, for longer trips I could borrow my partner's car or drive one of my classics, failing that I could rent a car for those very rare occasions when nobody I know could loan me one. If I didn't love driving my old Volvo wagon so much I'd seriously consider an electric. Putting gas in my paid-for car is cheaper than making payments on anything new but if I had any intention of ever buying a new car anyway the economics and convenience factor would be in favor of electric.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 03, 2018, 02:11:08 am
Electric / gas hybrid cars are pretty common where I live and have been for a long time. Electric only cars much less so but I still see them fairly often.  Location: An eastern US suburb near a major city.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on January 03, 2018, 08:23:40 am
Well, there are other things to consider:
So, never trust a statistic you haven´t falsified yourself, or in other words: range estimates need to take such things as climate and degrading into account. Additionally the technical feasability to use an electric daily driver alone is only a part of a whole ecosystem, even if most parts are absolutely the same technology.
It will take a while to overcome a certain critical mass so that e.g. running repair shops for electrical cars are as widespread that people have some trust in using that technology. Most car mechanics repell new stuff for a while and rather avoid working on that until they have no other chance. Discussing how reliable a manufacturers support alone will be is a bit counter-intuitive, this and many other forums are the best proof that self help is often preferred over being dependent on warranty or goodwill. The product can be as good as it can be, but it will usually be designed for an ideal customer or for certain focus groups and that is a problem in the used car market.

Yet those cars need to be as safe as possible (even better than average), without making mistakes by rushing it just to have it shipped. A few incidents caused by technical problems are enough to ruin a whole concept or manufacturer by loss of trust. To ensure success, that also translates into higher production cost, making a new concept less competitive.

Those are at least my two cents on that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on January 03, 2018, 09:31:29 am
Think I've said this before but the major issues are:

Not having a dedicated driveway or garage at which to charge the car is a pretty fundamental problem. Many Scottish houses do not, and even the new ones are often built with separate shared parking. The problem there would be that an illegal parker in your space means no use of the car tomorrow.

Not everyone is a commuter. Some people only use their cars for longer distance journeys. Even with a 200 mile range, as soon as you go beyond 100 miles you risk being stranded if there are no charge points. Or if they are all in use.

The cost of a hotel room for an overnight charging stop totally outweighs any fuel cost saving. (and when you consider the extra energy used in an overnight stop, overall energy use is probably more than returning home with an IC engine)

The majority of the car market is for used cars. Buying new is very expensive in terms of depreciation.  Used electric cars will be a big gamble due to battery condition questions.

We are constantly being told to turn off lights to save the limited amount of energy provided by renewables. One electric car motor, 2000 lightbulbs or more. No calculator needed for this one. It is simply unsustainable to add transport to the demands placed on renewables.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on January 03, 2018, 11:23:46 am
Think I've said this before but the major issues are:

Not having a dedicated driveway or garage at which to charge the car is a pretty fundamental problem. Many Scottish houses do not, and even the new ones are often built with separate shared parking. The problem there would be that an illegal parker in your space means no use of the car tomorrow.

Not everyone is a commuter. Some people only use their cars for longer distance journeys. Even with a 200 mile range, as soon as you go beyond 100 miles you risk being stranded if there are no charge points. Or if they are all in use.

The cost of a hotel room for an overnight charging stop totally outweighs any fuel cost saving. (and when you consider the extra energy used in an overnight stop, overall energy use is probably more than returning home with an IC engine)

The majority of the car market is for used cars. Buying new is very expensive in terms of depreciation.  Used electric cars will be a big gamble due to battery condition questions.

We are constantly being told to turn off lights to save the limited amount of energy provided by renewables. One electric car motor, 2000 lightbulbs or more. No calculator needed for this one. It is simply unsustainable to add transport to the demands placed on renewables.
In the Netherlands the have the same issue with parking.
What's being developed here is just shared charge areas. So multiple cars can charge.
Therefore you don't need your private parking spot.

Not everyone is a commuter, but like said before, the numbers show that more than 90% is a commuter.
I guess the car market really depends where you're from than, because here most cars are new or just 2nd hand cars that are less than 2 years old.

Your last comparison is totally absurd (sorry for saying it that blunt). You need to compare it how much energy and emissions combustion engines produce.
According to new regulation most countries are not gonna pass them if they don't change anything about it at all.
Besides, the amount of fuel (oil) is limited and will be gone at some point, so do we have a choice?

It's not a matter IF electric cars will become mainstream. Most governments WILL make sure the become mainstream because they don't have a choice.
And I think for the long distance an hybrid electric-hydrogen car would be pretty awesome.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on January 03, 2018, 03:02:06 pm
Think I've said this before but the major issues are:

Not having a dedicated driveway or garage at which to charge the car is a pretty fundamental problem. Many Scottish houses do not, and even the new ones are often built with separate shared parking. The problem there would be that an illegal parker in your space means no use of the car tomorrow.

Things can change!

If there's enough demand then parking spots can be designated as "electric only" between certain hours of the day. The number of spots can increase with time.

Something similar already happens here in Spain for disabled people. If you're disabled you can apply for a parking spot next to where you live, the council will assign you a bit of road and paint it yellow for you.

We are constantly being told to turn off lights to save the limited amount of energy provided by renewables. One electric car motor, 2000 lightbulbs or more. No calculator needed for this one. It is simply unsustainable to add transport to the demands placed on renewables.

Demand is uneven. Cars can be charged at night when people are in bed.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 03, 2018, 05:42:13 pm
Besides, the amount of fuel (oil) is limited and will be gone at some point, so do we have a choice?
Bio-fuels based on agricultural waste will fill that void. My prediction is that electric cars will never fully replace cars with a combustion engine. In Brazil for example a significant portion of the fuel used is bio-fuel.
Quote
I guess the car market really depends where you're from than, because here most cars are new or just 2nd hand cars that are less than 2 years old.
You should brush up your statistics. The average age of a car in the Netherlands is 10.2 years old.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on January 03, 2018, 07:08:40 pm
That doensn't scale.
In many cases it's not "agricultural waste", but actively planted.
This means it robs surface from food culture!
For example in the cases of rapeseed or Soybean oil, or corn....
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on January 03, 2018, 09:22:54 pm
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
If you wanna destroy nature anyway, than just stick to fossil fuels, Than at least we have some beautiful forests. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 03, 2018, 10:08:32 pm
That doensn't scale.
In many cases it's not "agricultural waste", but actively planted.
This means it robs surface from food culture!
For example in the cases of rapeseed or Soybean oil, or corn....
All true, but it can be made from non-food sources or food production wastes that otherwise have little use:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bagasse
Of course at the moment they're burnt and in a biomass power plant this is sold as "green" energy. Energy demands of many nations don't fit their available renewable resources so the general problem is people wanting to use more energy than is available long term.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 03, 2018, 10:12:59 pm
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
There are some good ideas which could produce resources from otherwise low value land, aquaculture in arid/desert areas is very interesting and there is active research in production of biofuels in such ways:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algae_fuel
If it scales up to industrial efficiencies then this could be another part of the energy supply.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 03, 2018, 11:15:06 pm
The relative price of electricity to fossil fuels, is important. Both can change, and there are other costs and factors too, as we've seen in our various discussions.

Many of the factors are complicated.  The big picture is quite complicated.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 03, 2018, 11:19:51 pm
The relative price of electricity to fossil fuels, is important. Both can change, and there are other costs and factors too, as we've seen in our various discussions.

Many of the factors are complicated.  The big picture is quite complicated.
On current prices an electric vehicle is a cheaper option for many people (hard to quantify exactly how many but the majority of countries have cheaper electricity than liquid fuels) which means that electric cars are now viable and mainstream. All the major brands are getting on board and not just the exclusive to California models they had in the past to meet the local regulations.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 03, 2018, 11:57:00 pm
Electricity is quite a lot cheaper than gasoline or diesel in every place I've ever looked. Otherwise people would be generating their own electricity using gasoline or diesel generators but they don't outside of emergencies because it ends up being absurdly expensive per kWh.

This thread contains a ridiculous number of excuses and mental gymnastics over why something can't possibly work, when quite obviously it does work for a great many people and can work for many more. There seems to be a fallacy that we must put all our eggs in one basket so to speak, and settle on one single technology to meet all our needs. Electric cars are simply another available tool for the task of getting around, they're a tool that will work for some people and not others but we are nowhere even close to saturating the market of those for whom it is practically ideal. Once that happens then we can talk about what makes the most sense for those where it is not so clear.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: thm_w on January 04, 2018, 01:05:43 am
True but it is something to consider when purchasing a used EV. It would make life easier if there is some way to read the state of health of a battery pack. Unfortunately that technology is still under development. I had a similar issue when buying my current car. My previous cars had diesel engines and the last one suffered quite a few engine related issues common for that model. All in all modern diesels have become relatively unreliable beyond the first 150k km and expensive to repair so I didn't want to take the risk and bought a car which runs on gasoline. It is more expensive to run but I don't risk needing to spend several thousands on engine repairs which cannot be predicted. Just like a battery you can't see how far an engine is worn and what is about to fail from the outside. You can only go by looking at problems which happen often and choose to take the chance or not.

You can get a very good idea on a nissan leaf with a cheap ODB adapter and the leaf spy app (shows capacity and number of charges, etc.).
Even looking at the expected range and available bars on the UI will tell you a bit about battery condition. You can also look at the car history report, if the car was originally used in a very warm climate the battery could be degraded.

Neither of these issues is a problem when you buy within the 8yr/100k battery warranty. If the capacity drops below ~75%, you would be covered.
Considering the cheapest car maintenance you can get is a Toyota at $5.5k/10 years (https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/the-most-and-least-expensive-cars-to-maintain-by-maddy-martin (https://www.yourmechanic.com/article/the-most-and-least-expensive-cars-to-maintain-by-maddy-martin)), having to replace the battery for $5.5k is not unreasonable (of course get a good one if you can, and in a moderate climate it will last more than 10 years).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 04, 2018, 01:18:41 am
Electricity is quite a lot cheaper than gasoline or diesel in every place I've ever looked. Otherwise people would be generating their own electricity using gasoline or diesel generators but they don't outside of emergencies because it ends up being absurdly expensive per kWh.
Conversion efficiency has to be accounted for somewhere, but right now (as in today) in Melbourne energy pricing is:

Domestic "Gas" 7c/kWh
Vehicle LPG 11c/kWh
Petrol/Diesel 14c/kWh
E85 ethanol 17c/kWh
Electricity 25c/kWh

Those are the prices that we buy the energy for as a consumer, hiding in there are taxes, supply charges, and many complexities. Trigeneration is quite cost effective for premises that have the demand scale for it. Right now an electric car generally doesn't make sense economically in Australia especially a large and heavy long range one:
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/problems-if-we-all-had-tesla-cars/msg705793/#msg705793 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/problems-if-we-all-had-tesla-cars/msg705793/#msg705793)
Smaller short range vehicles do make sense as they can be lighter and more energy efficient.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on January 04, 2018, 01:24:34 am
Electricity is quite a lot cheaper than gasoline or diesel in every place I've ever looked. Otherwise people would be generating their own electricity using gasoline or diesel generators but they don't outside of emergencies because it ends up being absurdly expensive per kWh.
Exactly, price and cost are two separate things and usually people forget that on a small scale everyone optimizes individual gain, whereas on a large scale the total cost calculation is important (including each and everything related to it).

Quote
This thread contains a ridiculous number of excuses and mental gymnastics over why something can't possibly work, when quite obviously it does work for a great many people and can work for many more. There seems to be a fallacy that we must put all our eggs in one basket so to speak, and settle on one single technology to meet all our needs. Electric cars are simply another available tool for the task of getting around, they're a tool that will work for some people and not others but we are nowhere even close to saturating the market of those for whom it is practically ideal. Once that happens then we can talk about what makes the most sense for those where it is not so clear.
The difference between these arguments is in the question. What can work does not automatically make it mainstream.
It usually leads to moral vantage points and no result if such a discussion is based on bad examples as guideline if something is feasible at all, mixed with a different concept of what mainstream really means and how things scale.

I often wonder how many people actually regard that there is a value chain from pork to sausage (so to speak). Your average grocery store bought items went through extensive filtering and excess which might lead to the assumption things are better or scarce than they actually are. IMHO this is usually achieved by a strong increase of waste (again, difference between price & cost). Observing such developments in terms of energy contained or converted is a good method to get back to the total costs as a guideline.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 04, 2018, 01:28:44 am
Conversion efficiency is a very important detail though when you figure electric motors can easily reach 90% efficiency while internal combustion engines used in cars top out at what, around 35% efficiency? Generating electricity in a central plant using one or more very large generators that run continuously at a significant percentage of their maximum capacity is far more efficient than running thousands of smaller engines spending much of their time at very light load, even when you factor in distribution losses.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 04, 2018, 01:55:47 am
Conversion efficiency is a very important detail though when you figure electric motors can easily reach 90% efficiency while internal combustion engines used in cars top out at what, around 35% efficiency? Generating electricity in a central plant using one or more very large generators that run continuously at a significant percentage of their maximum capacity is far more efficient than running thousands of smaller engines spending much of their time at very light load, even when you factor in distribution losses.
But you skip the battery in wall to wheel efficiency, which for plugin electric cars ends up around 70-75% its easy to cherry pick which parts of the efficiency you do or don't count to make any specific example look good.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 04, 2018, 06:36:58 am
But you skip the battery in wall to wheel efficiency, which for plugin electric cars ends up around 70-75% its easy to cherry pick which parts of the efficiency you do or don't count to make any specific example look good.


I wasn't deliberately skipping it, I just didn't feel like writing a novel. I'd be curious to see some actual data here, surely all of the necessary data is available. Everything I've read suggests that electric is significantly more efficient all things considered, but I don't have the numbers on hand. Let's not forget the energy involved in refining and transporting gasoline, how do those losses compare to losses in generating and transporting electricity. Certainly in areas like where I live where a significant percentage of our electricity comes from clean hydro power and little from fossil fuels tilts the advantage further toward electric.

Either way I don't want to see gas and diesel cars disappear, having additional fuel options available can only be a good thing. The more different energy sources we have the less overall impact a shortage of any one fuel has on society overall.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: EEVblog on January 04, 2018, 08:39:02 am
You can get a very good idea on a nissan leaf with a cheap ODB adapter and the leaf spy app (shows capacity and number of charges, etc.).
Even looking at the expected range and available bars on the UI will tell you a bit about battery condition.

One bar lost can mean 15% capacity lost, 2 bars lost is 21.25% apparently, it's not linear.
Full data:
http://www.electricvehiclewiki.com/Battery_Capacity_Loss (http://www.electricvehiclewiki.com/Battery_Capacity_Loss)

The lithium manganese oxide used in the older model LEAF's had capacity loss issue. Was very common for Nissan to replace packs under warranty.

Some car battery technology loss data
http://jes.ecsdl.org/content/163/9/A1872/F2.large.jpg (http://jes.ecsdl.org/content/163/9/A1872/F2.large.jpg)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on January 04, 2018, 02:48:36 pm
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
There are some good ideas which could produce resources from otherwise low value land, aquaculture in arid/desert areas is very interesting and there is active research in production of biofuels in such ways:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algae_fuel
If it scales up to industrial efficiencies then this could be another part of the energy supply.
I agree and there are some good bio alternatives.
Unfortunately it's not what practically is done at the moment right now.

The problem is that there is WAY to much interest and a big huge lobby in the fuel industry.
Ironically all these alternatives have been known for many years.
In fact, the whole concept of 'global warming' was already investigated and reported by scientist in the 60s and 70s.
but in a world were profit is more important than anything else, it a bit like  :horse:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on January 04, 2018, 03:03:39 pm
But you skip the battery in wall to wheel efficiency, which for plugin electric cars ends up around 70-75% its easy to cherry pick which parts of the efficiency you do or don't count to make any specific example look good.
The battery does have losses during charging and discharging (it is heating up when doing so), i´d account around 80% each as a ballpark number for Li-Ion, so they are far away from perfect. Rectifier and VFD take their cut too.

To compare apples to apples... you buy fuel at the pump and electricity comes out the wall. But the fuel itself needed to be mined, transported and refined, each part taking a loss, times the efficiency of the actual consumer. Same goes for electric power of course.

35% efficiency is about right for a typical turbodiesel, 40% max or so, compared to calorific value of the fuel. But that only counts at the most economic operation point (load on the crankshaft and rpm-wise) in the BSFC and without transmission (95% for manual, 85% for conventional torque converter with partial use of the lockup). So on the road things look drastically different as long as the drivetrain is directly coupled to the engine.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 04, 2018, 07:39:37 pm
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
If you wanna destroy nature anyway, than just stick to fossil fuels, Than at least we have some beautiful forests.
Get your facts straight. I wrote bio-fuel from agricultural waste. That is waste from plants we grow to produce food. From most plants we only eat the seeds or leafs which leaves a huge amount of bio material we don't eat. Using more of a plant may even make food more affordable! See poet-dsm.com
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 04, 2018, 08:00:11 pm
Many people fall into the same trap with biofuels as with other alternate energy sources - assuming that for the source to be viable it must replace conventional sources 100% for everybody. Biofuel doesn't need to replace other fuels to be useful, it can supplement other fuels depending on availability. We should not be using viable food crops to produce fuel, but if we have excess crops or other bio substances that can be converted to fuel then by all means do so.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: tszaboo on January 04, 2018, 08:16:55 pm
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
If you wanna destroy nature anyway, than just stick to fossil fuels, Than at least we have some beautiful forests.
Get your facts straight. I wrote bio-fuel from agricultural waste. That is waste from plants we grow to produce food. From most plants we only eat the seeds or leafs which leaves a huge amount of bio material we don't eat. Using more of a plant may even make food more affordable! See poet-dsm.com
My grandfather had a small land, and a winery. He told me that there is no such thing as agricultural waste. What you throw out, is what the land needs to make next year's crops (or wine).
So biofuel tries to solve the pollution problem in transportation, with agriculture. A different industry, which is actually generating more pollution than transportation.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 04, 2018, 09:15:34 pm
Bio-fuel is a similar scam as 'solar freaking roadway'.
Bio-fuels means chopping up big forests for crops that grow fast to make fuel out of it.
If you wanna destroy nature anyway, than just stick to fossil fuels, Than at least we have some beautiful forests.
Get your facts straight. I wrote bio-fuel from agricultural waste. That is waste from plants we grow to produce food. From most plants we only eat the seeds or leafs which leaves a huge amount of bio material we don't eat. Using more of a plant may even make food more affordable! See poet-dsm.com
My grandfather had a small land, and a winery. He told me that there is no such thing as agricultural waste. What you throw out, is what the land needs to make next year's crops (or wine).
So biofuel tries to solve the pollution problem in transportation, with agriculture. A different industry, which is actually generating more pollution than transportation.
If your grandfather was that smart he could have saved Poet-DSM millions of dollars worth of useless investments  :palm:
The truth is somewhere in the middle. You can't leave too much waste on the land because fertilisation of land is a precise process to crow certain crops with maximum yield. According to Poet-DSM an optimum is reached when around 25% of the waste material is taken from the land.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 04, 2018, 09:42:34 pm
You don't always have to grow crops specifically for fuel either, in developed nations huge amounts of food goes wasted, nobody will buy spoiled produce but some of it can be turned into usable fuel. Then in some cases there are crops that are much more productive or require much less effort or grow in places that are less than ideal for growing food, in that case it can make sense to grow something for fuel. At one time I recall reading some forms of algae showed promise.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on January 04, 2018, 10:32:15 pm
The point is that there isn't enough waste to produce enough fuel.
So we do need use multiple solutions.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 04, 2018, 10:51:22 pm
The point is that there isn't enough waste to produce enough fuel.
So we do need use multiple solutions.
I agree up to some point because the amount of waste c.q. land available for bio fuel depends greatly on the ratio of cars versus arable land (I wrote something similar a few posts above). The US for example may have enough agricultural waste to supply all the fuel they need if they can somehow manage to use cars with a way better mileage.

This also makes me wonder how this will work with the economy of scale when producing cars. The difference between the several types of fuel (liquid gas, petrol and diesel) don't need large changes to the body of the car. In case of an electric car the body needs to be stronger to hold the weight and offer space for the battery pack. It will be interesting to see how the electric cars from mainstream manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes and VW are going to be constructed.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: vk6zgo on January 05, 2018, 03:00:23 am
Electricity is quite a lot cheaper than gasoline or diesel in every place I've ever looked. Otherwise people would be generating their own electricity using gasoline or diesel generators but they don't outside of emergencies because it ends up being absurdly expensive per kWh.

There are a lot of other things beside the fuel costs that mitigate against this, such as the first cost of a diesel or other IC generator,plus ancillary bits.
A generator that can handle most household uses 24/7 will be a fairly specialised device, hence will be expensive.
Fuel tanks need to meet Govt specifications, so will also be costly.
Add to that pollution laws, & the fact that Local Government Authorities would be very unlikely to permit such an installation, in the first place.
Quote
This thread contains a ridiculous number of excuses and mental gymnastics over why something can't possibly work, when quite obviously it does work for a great many people and can work for many more.

It works the other way, too .
The enthusiasts for electric cars, wave away real concerns, with "you will just have to adapt", or "you can have another long distance car", or "you can hire a car", or "sleep over at your destination" & so on.
People have real financial reasons for not doing these things.
Quote
There seems to be a fallacy that we must put all our eggs in one basket so to speak, and settle on one single technology to meet all our needs. Electric cars are simply another available tool for the task of getting around, they're a tool that will work for some people and not others but we are nowhere even close to saturating the market of those for whom it is practically ideal. Once that happens then we can talk about what makes the most sense for those where it is not so clear.
Any car is not going to be ideal, but some compromises are better than others
That is why, without a radical change in how our societies are ordered, I believe that electric vehicles still have a while to go before they will be the majority type of personal transport.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 05, 2018, 08:11:31 am
There are a lot of other things beside the fuel costs that mitigate against this, such as the first cost of a diesel or other IC generator,plus ancillary bits.
A generator that can handle most household uses 24/7 will be a fairly specialised device, hence will be expensive.
Fuel tanks need to meet Govt specifications, so will also be costly.
Add to that pollution laws, & the fact that Local Government Authorities would be very unlikely to permit such an installation, in the first place.

I don't buy that for a second. If it were economical to generate power that way then everyone would have one, they would be mass produced in huge quantities and costs would drop. As it is you can get generators really cheap these days, most of my neighbors have them and I hate the cheap ones, power goes out and within 10 minutes I can't hear myself think over the din. The nice quiet inverter generators are much better but even so it's easy to work out the cost per kWh and it's not even close to competitive with what I get from the utility. Just for fun let's run some simple numbers here based on the Honda EU2000i I occasionally borrow from a friend. This is a high end inverter generator about as efficient as they come.

Fuel capacity is 0.95 US gallons of gas (petrol) and that is rated to run 3.4 hours at rated load of 2kW so 6.8 kWh per tank or 7.2 kWh per gallon.

Gasoline prices fluctuate frequently but currently in my area regular is about $2.91/gallon, so that means electricity generated by burning gasoline is about $0.40/kWh, ignoring the additional cost of collecting and transporting the fuel to my home. Electricity from the utility costs me a bit less than $0.09 per kWh so less than 1/4th the cost of generating it myself.

I think it's reasonable to assume that a really efficient diesel generator could perhaps double the fuel economy, resulting in a modest savings even factoring in the higher cost per gallon of diesel but still substantially more expensive than utility power.


Quote
It works the other way, too .
The enthusiasts for electric cars, wave away real concerns, with "you will just have to adapt", or "you can have another long distance car", or "you can hire a car", or "sleep over at your destination" & so on.
People have real financial reasons for not doing these things.

Nobody is saying that everyone is going to have to get an electric car or that it makes financial sense for everyone, or is convenient for everyone and that's fine. If everyone had them then we would have another set of problems but that doesn't mean there are not benefits to having a lot more of them than we do currently. It also doesn't mean that a lot of people could not easily adapt and make very minor lifestyle adjustments. I've lived long enough to see multiple waves of new technologies where each time older people bitched and moaned about how terrible they were and how they wouldn't work and this or that just wasn't possible, only to see people quickly adapt. While it's hard to believe, there are actually still numerous people who cling to incandescent light bulbs and find all manner of excuses why modern replacements are not suitable despite the fact that I've somehow got by without using incandescent lamps for general illumination for more than 20 years. People swear CFL and more recently LED bulbs are not any cheaper to run despite the fact that basic arithmetic plainly shows otherwise. It's simply a resistance to change and an emotional belief that anything new or "green" is some kind of liberal commie conspiracy or something.

Now as much as I love my older cars, it's just a simple fact that humans are going to have to adjust and adapt at some point because the current model of extracting oil from the earth and burning it to drive around in hundreds of millions of individual cars is not sustainable. Sooner or later oil will be scarce enough that we will have to find other options, whether that is alternative energy sources or much greater reliance on mass transit. We're on track to have 10 Billion people soon and more and more of those people are wanting modern conveniences.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: vk6zgo on January 05, 2018, 11:04:36 am
There are a lot of other things beside the fuel costs that mitigate against this, such as the first cost of a diesel or other IC generator,plus ancillary bits.
A generator that can handle most household uses 24/7 will be a fairly specialised device, hence will be expensive.
Fuel tanks need to meet Govt specifications, so will also be costly.
Add to that pollution laws, & the fact that Local Government Authorities would be very unlikely to permit such an installation, in the first place.

I don't buy that for a second. If it were economical to generate power that way then everyone would have one, they would be mass produced in huge quantities and costs would drop. As it is you can get generators really cheap these days, most of my neighbors have them and I hate the cheap ones, power goes out and within 10 minutes I can't hear myself think over the din. The nice quiet inverter generators are much better but even so it's easy to work out the cost per kWh and it's not even close to competitive with what I get from the utility. Just for fun let's run some simple numbers here based on the Honda EU2000i I occasionally borrow from a friend. This is a high end inverter generator about as efficient as they come.

Fuel capacity is 0.95 US gallons of gas (petrol) and that is rated to run 3.4 hours at rated load of 2kW so 6.8 kWh per tank or 7.2 kWh per gallon.

Gasoline prices fluctuate frequently but currently in my area regular is about $2.91/gallon, so that means electricity generated by burning gasoline is about $0.40/kWh, ignoring the additional cost of collecting and transporting the fuel to my home. Electricity from the utility costs me a bit less than $0.09 per kWh so less than 1/4th the cost of generating it myself.

I think it's reasonable to assume that a really efficient diesel generator could perhaps double the fuel economy, resulting in a modest savings even factoring in the higher cost per gallon of diesel but still substantially more expensive than utility power.
My point was that it wasn't a reasonable comparison.
Your little Honda generator, or any other economically priced generator would not work 24/7 to replace the convenience of Mains power.
Something which really did the job is going to inevitably be larger & more of an industrial unit.
Nobody is going to make a special one just for those few nutters who want to supply their own power.
 Ironically, someone living in a remote area would probably find such a setup useful to charge their electric car!

I.C. cars already exist in their thousands, & as long as people can find fuel, will continue in use.
Quote

Quote
It works the other way, too .
The enthusiasts for electric cars, wave away real concerns, with "you will just have to adapt", or "you can have another long distance car", or "you can hire a car", or "sleep over at your destination" & so on.
People have real financial reasons for not doing these things.

Nobody is saying that everyone is going to have to get an electric car or that it makes financial sense for everyone, or is convenient for everyone and that's fine. If everyone had them then we would have another set of problems but that doesn't mean there are not benefits to having a lot more of them than we do currently. It also doesn't mean that a lot of people could not easily adapt and make very minor lifestyle adjustments. I've lived long enough to see multiple waves of new technologies where each time older people bitched and moaned about how terrible they were and how they wouldn't work and this or that just wasn't possible, only to see people quickly adapt. While it's hard to believe, there are actually still numerous people who cling to incandescent light bulbs and find all manner of excuses why modern replacements are not suitable despite the fact that I've somehow got by without using incandescent lamps for general illumination for more than 20 years. People swear CFL and more recently LED bulbs are not any cheaper to run despite the fact that basic arithmetic plainly shows otherwise. It's simply a resistance to change and an emotional belief that anything new or "green" is some kind of liberal commie conspiracy or something.

There were a lot of technologies that didn't make it into the mainstream, & among those that did make it, some had a pretty rocky road.
CFLs were pretty useless, they do not produce the same amount of light in the spectrum which is useful to human eyes as incandescents do, their life span was nearly as poor, & the better quality ones, which were still cruddy, were quite expensive.
Tube fluorescents are much better in every way, but of course, require new wiring.

The current crop of LED bulbs are a very good replacement for incandescents------the early ones were lousy,though!
Quote

Now as much as I love my older cars, it's just a simple fact that humans are going to have to adjust and adapt at some point because the current model of extracting oil from the earth and burning it to drive around in hundreds of millions of individual cars is not sustainable. Sooner or later oil will be scarce enough that we will have to find other options, whether that is alternative energy sources or much greater reliance on mass transit. We're on track to have 10 Billion people soon and more and more of those people are wanting modern conveniences.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 05, 2018, 10:07:26 pm
My point was that it wasn't a reasonable comparison.
Your little Honda generator, or any other economically priced generator would not work 24/7 to replace the convenience of Mains power.
Something which really did the job is going to inevitably be larger & more of an industrial unit.
Nobody is going to make a special one just for those few nutters who want to supply their own power.
 Ironically, someone living in a remote area would probably find such a setup useful to charge their electric car!

I.C. cars already exist in their thousands, & as long as people can find fuel, will continue in use.

The comparison was perfectly reasonable except that you skirted around the entire point, which is that looking at this specific generator which is particularly efficient at converting gasoline into electricity, the resulting electricity costs more than *four times* what it does from the for-profit utility. Convenience, longevity, maintenance, all of that is completely irrelevant if the cost is higher even before you take any of that into consideration.

You can even ignore all of that if you like and look at medium and large scale generation, there is a very good reason that power plants in developed nations don't burn gasoline, diesel or other high grade fuels to generate electricity and that is it isn't economical. If one really wanted to nitpick it could be pointed out that small generators could easily be tied into the grid to produce power when it was convenient to do so as is done by many small scale solar/wind installations but that would be ridiculous since there is no economic incentive to use expensive self generated power to offset cheap grid supplied power.

Of course people will keep driving IC cars for a long time, nobody here is saying they won't. An alternate technology becoming mainstream doesn't mean the currently dominant tech is going to go away.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 14, 2018, 05:10:24 am
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: tszaboo on January 15, 2018, 10:20:22 am
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 15, 2018, 05:18:52 pm
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.
And still the economy is booming. Gas and energy prices in general don't really matter that much because increasing energy prices just drive inflation.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 15, 2018, 06:28:58 pm
The "invisible hand" of the free market is supposed to decide,putting inefficient business and workers out of business if they can't keep up with the laws of supply and demand. Or so the advicates for that interpretation claim.

But I think the likelihood of electricity prices going sky high is much more likely than that happening to gas.  There has been SO much disinformation being spewed on this area its kind of obvious some kind of major scam is going on.

See this study.

http://www.crai.com/sites/default/files/publications/CRA_LNG_Study.pdf (http://www.crai.com/sites/default/files/publications/CRA_LNG_Study.pdf)


How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.
And still the economy is booming. Gas and energy prices in general don't really matter that much because increasing energy prices just drive inflation.
Shale gas is what I think is being over-hyped the worst. There is lots of evidence that the real reserves they have are much much smaller and more costly to extract than are being represented.  New York Times did a series on this a few years ago but they still keep repeating things that they know are not true.

http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/96242-shale-gas-bubble-combined.html (http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/96242-shale-gas-bubble-combined.html)

We could likely reduce our energy consumption in most areas, substantially, but I think its a mistake to attempt to export it now when there are so many questions..

Another one is methane release.. Shale gas may be so leaky as far as methane release that its carbon footprint is as bad as coal. A fair amount of evidence points in that direction.

A good summary is here: "A bridge to nowhere: methane emissions and the greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas" (Howarth 2014)

http://www.sierraclub.org/sites/www.sierraclub.org/files/sce/connecticut-chapter/Howarth%202014.pdf (http://www.sierraclub.org/sites/www.sierraclub.org/files/sce/connecticut-chapter/Howarth%202014.pdf)

Also, every few decades there is a major volcanic eruption which darkens the suns rays to varying degrees, globally. When there is ash in the atmosphere, winds die down and rain also declines. Also the climate gets cold for some time, because the suns rays are reflected out into space. Sometimes that causes famine.

Benjamin Franklin, one of the founders of the US wrote quite a bit about this, proposing that society should prepare for such events as best as it could, in advance. because they happen and their incidence is impossible to predict.

A good argument could and should be made that natural gas should be kept in reserve for such events. Not sold off now while governments are so corrupt that they allow it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: fcb on January 15, 2018, 08:53:13 pm
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.
I'd love to pay $6.5 USD/gallon here.

Currently petrol is around £1.20 per litre (1.20 x 4.546l/usgal x exchange rate ) = $7.53/gallon
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 16, 2018, 08:08:47 pm
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.

Which is why it's good to have a variety of different energy sources. With a mix of gas, diesel and electric cars on the road, a drastic price increase in one fuel source has less overall impact. If the price of gasoline goes through the roof I can get a ride from one of my friends with electric cars. If the price of electricity goes up drastically they can get a ride from me.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 16, 2018, 08:24:32 pm
Energy poverty
Energy poverty is lack of access to modern energy services. It refers to the situation of large numbers of people in developing countries and some people in developed countries whose well-being is negatively affected by very low consumption of energy, use of dirty or polluting fuels, and excessive time spent collecting fuel to meet basic needs.


People in Europe have low cost healthcare and education, people in the US have until the cheap energy. Now they are trying to make the cost of healthcare and education in Europe more like the cost in the US, (astronomical) and trying to make the cost of energy in the US more like that in Europe (astronomical).

This is what is called the "race to the bottom".

Which is why it's good to have a variety of different energy sources. With a mix of gas, diesel and electric cars on the road, a drastic price increase in one fuel source has less overall impact. If the price of gasoline goes through the roof I can get a ride from one of my friends with electric cars. If the price of electricity goes up drastically they can get a ride from me.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: vk6zgo on January 18, 2018, 04:25:19 am
How much does the price of electricity impact the cost of an electric car?

The reason I ask is because the price of electricity may be going up a lot here in the US soon as the LNG export facilities come online.
Or the price of gas could go crazy high. Like 2 times as much as now. Or even higher than that. Or even reach the same level as all the Europeans are paying for gas. Imagine that. Imagine paying 6.5 USD/gallon, like we pay here.
I'd love to pay $6.5 USD/gallon here.

Currently petrol is around £1.20 per litre (1.20 x 4.546l/usgal x exchange rate ) = $7.53/gallon

You are using the wrong conversion.
The USA uses "pretend gallons" which are smaller than full blooded "Imperial" gallons.

For example, the classic "44 gallon drum " familiar to Brits & older Aussies is a "55 gallon drum " in the US.

We call 'em "200 litre drums" nowadays in Oz!
 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on January 18, 2018, 02:57:47 pm
Think the main point with most such developments is that letting market forces decide is almost always better than distorting the market with taxes, subsidies, etc. If the battery car can fulfil a role then it will sell.

We've seen how boiler scrappage schemes spawned a massive scam market in the UK, with phones jumping off the hook day in day out with illegal recorded message telesales scams.  Whatever the original intent, crooks are very quick to latch on to these schemes and use them to fleece gullible or vulnerable people. Most of the scammers were of course cowboy outfits who would probably have done an unsafe gas installation anyway.   :--

Never forget the Law of Unintended Consequences.

There is also the risk of prematurely promoting a new technology, only to have a better version come along shortly afterwards. That really does no-one any good, least of all the planet as it creates not one but two monster junkpiles of perfectly serviceable goods.  :palm:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 19, 2018, 01:03:21 am
They have been doing that same pump and dump thing with natural gas exploration companies.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/96242/shale-gas-bubble-combined.pdf

But the resource is basically running out.

Did the price of electricity increase in Australia when Australia started to export natural gas?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 19, 2018, 08:45:37 pm
Think the main point with most such developments is that letting market forces decide is almost always better than distorting the market with taxes, subsidies, etc. If the battery car can fulfil a role then it will sell.

We've seen how boiler scrappage schemes spawned a massive scam market in the UK, with phones jumping off the hook day in day out with illegal recorded message telesales scams.  Whatever the original intent, crooks are very quick to latch on to these schemes and use them to fleece gullible or vulnerable people. Most of the scammers were of course cowboy outfits who would probably have done an unsafe gas installation anyway.
I agree that law makers are oblivious to the holes in the laws they are making but as long as they patch them fast enough not much is lost. Unfortunately you can't leave everything to the mechanics of the free market. The mechanics of the free market don't care about the environment, how many people get killed or long term adverse effects. This is why it is necessary to put regulations and steering mechanisms in place. This means to subsidise new/improved technologies and put heavier taxes on unwanted technologies.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 19, 2018, 09:25:51 pm
The problem with relying on the free market entirely is that the market is made up of people, and a lot of people are either not particularly intelligent or are oblivious to specific concepts. One doesn't have to look far to see for example large numbers of people who utterly fail at understanding the concept of total cost of ownership. They will buy stuff with a credit card and only comprehend what it adds to the monthly payment, they are totally oblivious to the amount they are actually paying for the item spread out over time once interest is factored in.

To use the previously mentioned boiler example, pulling some numbers out of my backside strictly for the sake of example, vast numbers of people would buy a boiler for $400 that cost them $600 a year in fuel to run rather than spend $800 on a more efficient boiler that consumed half as much fuel. Anyone who understands basic arithmetic can easily calculate that the more expensive unit in this example is actually cheaper but you might be surprised at the number of people for whom this is a totally foreign concept. For whatever reason they cannot make the connection between efficiency and their monthly utility bill and money in the bank. Again for anyone feeling really pedantic those numbers are made up simply to serve as an example.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on January 20, 2018, 10:01:28 am
".vast numbers of people would buy a boiler for $400 that cost them $600 a year in fuel to run rather than spend $800 on a more efficient boiler that consumed half as much fuel."

The reverse is more the case. People are being persuaded to scrap conventional boilers and replace them with condensing types on the grounds that this will save the planet. Or, something. The truth is that the energy saving is small, while the waste produced by all this scrappage is large. Of course, the real motive is that the installers profit from it. Legislation also forbids the scrapped boilers from being redeployed, ensuring a monster scrap heap.

I think we have to beware of the same syndrome arising with  battery cars. The scrappage of huge numbers of conventional cars will mainly benefit the auto makers, and we then have to consider whether these firms are directly or indirectly influencing the politics for their own gain. They may for example be funding the Green Party to promote their own interests. (Exactly what they accuse Big Oil of doing, in fact.)

As with wind turbines, the cost advantage of the battery car goes away if the subsidy is removed. In this case the subsidy is threefold; handouts to buyers in the form of scrappage schemes, low or zero road tax, and no fuel tax. My guess is that if electrics became the norm, governments would have to claw back all that lost revenue. Exactly how they would do that remains to be seen, but it might involve a per-mile usage charge for example. Or a much higher road tax than for IC engines. 

The bottom line is that Joe or Jane Public pays all of these e-car subsidies, and because a large part of that subsidy is electricity, that is true whether Joe or Jane even owns a car or not. There really could not be anything less fair. It ends up with the person who cycles to work and takes a bus into town, paying for the neighbour's e-car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 21, 2018, 12:27:06 am
What makes people think that the personal automobile in almost any form will remain popular, or even legal, say 100 yrs from now?

People shouldn't extrapolate today's economic conditions into the future where they may not even remotely apply.

I think the future world depicted in "The Matrix" where people spend their entire lives plugged into a net of machinery that keeps them alive via a protein goo, permanently logged into a simulation of 1990s Earth, is around as likely, or unlikely.

Suppose the next 1859-like ("Carrington class") solar storm occurs causing loss of spent fuel cooling capacity, "loss of the ultimate heatsink" in dozens, perhaps hundreds of nuclear power plants around the globe, all at the same time, and meltdowns a few hours to days later, in some significant proportion of them..

That could render much of the planet uninhabitable.

What would be done then?
 

I hope we don't end up like this!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybSzoLCCX-Y (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybSzoLCCX-Y)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 21, 2018, 01:10:54 am
What I am describing would be exactly that, a huge ripoff of the taxpayers based on ISDS.

http://energypost.eu/pursuit-free-energy-trade-trans-atlantic-trade-investment-partnership-ttip-endangering-action-climate-change/ (http://energypost.eu/pursuit-free-energy-trade-trans-atlantic-trade-investment-partnership-ttip-endangering-action-climate-change/)

They are basically setting up the US paxpayer to have to bail out these companies by setting up an intolerable situation the country would have to may huge sums to get out of.


Similar to the Yukos case, which may have been strictly to establish this precedent so that some huge aware could be taken against the US without it looking too suspicious. Read up on ISDS. And the "US-Gambling" case between Antigua and the US.  Over the supply of online gambling serices.

They will likely soon be doing that on health care too. (except via a state to state mechanism embedded in GATS, - but it works much like ISDS)

This is being done to trap the US in a system it could not afford since the 1980s. It would never do for the US to get public healthcare just as the US is forcing other countries to give up theirs. This is why so many US political candidates lied about it. Promising voters the moon when they really get rocks.


This situation is illustrative. Its the investors that matter now, not countries. They bought them fair and square.

http://gala.gre.ac.uk/2744/1/PSIRU_Report_9828_-_2010-02-H-tradelaw.pdf (http://gala.gre.ac.uk/2744/1/PSIRU_Report_9828_-_2010-02-H-tradelaw.pdf)

Knowing perfectly well that American patients arent going to want to be shipped overseas for health care no matter how poor they are or cant afford it if they stay.

Think the main point with most such developments is that letting market forces decide is almost always better than distorting the market with taxes, subsidies, etc. If the battery car can fulfil a role then it will sell.

We've seen how boiler scrappage schemes spawned a massive scam market in the UK, with phones jumping off the hook day in day out with illegal recorded message telesales scams.  Whatever the original intent, crooks are very quick to latch on to these schemes and use them to fleece gullible or vulnerable people. Most of the scammers were of course cowboy outfits who would probably have done an unsafe gas installation anyway.   :--

Never forget the Law of Unintended Consequences.

There is also the risk of prematurely promoting a new technology, only to have a better version come along shortly afterwards. That really does no-one any good, least of all the planet as it creates not one but two monster junkpiles of perfectly serviceable goods.  :palm:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 21, 2018, 02:13:05 am
".vast numbers of people would buy a boiler for $400 that cost them $600 a year in fuel to run rather than spend $800 on a more efficient boiler that consumed half as much fuel."

The reverse is more the case. People are being persuaded to scrap conventional boilers and replace them with condensing types on the grounds that this will save the planet. Or, something. The truth is that the energy saving is small, while the waste produced by all this scrappage is large. Of course, the real motive is that the installers profit from it. Legislation also forbids the scrapped boilers from being redeployed, ensuring a monster scrap heap.

I think we have to beware of the same syndrome arising with  battery cars. The scrappage of huge numbers of conventional cars will mainly benefit the auto makers, and we then have to consider whether these firms are directly or indirectly influencing the politics for their own gain. They may for example be funding the Green Party to promote their own interests. (Exactly what they accuse Big Oil of doing, in fact.)


It depends. About 10 years ago I replaced my working but 30 year old forced air furnace which was 80% efficient with a 93% efficient condensing furnace. The original still worked but it was reaching the point where the second set of heat exchangers were getting close to the age where the original set failed. At the same time I dropped the size down from 100k BTH/hr to 80k since the original was oversized, popular because people like to heat up the house quickly and gas was cheap in the 70s. That replacement make a noticeable decrease in my gas bill and has paid for itself quite a while ago now. If you have a tired old boiler that is nearing end of life anyway then it doesn't bother me to create an incentive to replace it with a cleaner more efficient model. Now I didn't get any kind of subsidy because I installed it myself, I could have got a rebate from the utility but to do that I would have had to pay an installer and that would have cost me a lot more than the rebate covers.

Now I would not scrap perfectly good boiler that was not particularly old, and I think laws barring installing used boilers are ridiculous but that doesn't mean it's always bad to offer some incentives or rebates. Here they are more often offered not by the government but by the (for-profit) utility companies because it saves them having to spend big money upgrading infrastructure. If you want to be irritated, look up the criminally wasteful "Cash for clunkers" program we had here, a thinly veiled bailout for the auto industry, it was claimed to be getting old dirty cars off the street but in fact to qualify they had to be licensed and drivable, and newer than a certain age, conveniently covering the most popular used cars and SUVs. On top of that you could trade in a car for the rebate and get a truck or SUV that resulted in no savings. All of these running cars that were traded in were mandated to have the engines destroyed before they were sent out to scrapyards. It was no benefit to the people who had the true clunkers because they couldn't afford to replace theirs with a brand new car even with the rebate. All it did was destroy a lot of good cars that could have had many years of use on them, while spending my tax dollars to subsidize middle and upper middle class people buying new cars.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on January 21, 2018, 11:32:13 am
A: What makes people think that the personal automobile in almost any form will remain popular, or even legal, say 100 yrs from now?

B: People shouldn't extrapolate today's economic conditions into the future where they may not even remotely apply.

C: Suppose the next 1859-like ("Carrington class") solar storm occurs causing loss of spent fuel cooling capacity, "loss of the ultimate heatsink" in dozens, perhaps hundreds of nuclear power plants around the globe, all at the same time, and meltdowns a few hours to days later, in some significant proportion of them..

A: Try making any journey by public transport that is not either To or From a city center, and you will see why it has to be.  To get 60 miles you may have to travel 100 to the nearest city, passing your destination on the way, and then travel 40 back again in the direction you came.  |O

B: Too true, and applies in spades to the mass deployment of wind turbines and the like. Fusion will almost certainly be perfected before '100% renewables' is reached n 2050 or wheneveri. At which point they become scrap. Scrap with a fair proportion of non-recyclable content, too.

C: That is probably an exaggeration, but it IS a valid reason why we should build no more reactors with pressurised water cooling or zirconium fuel cladding.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 21, 2018, 01:29:22 pm
A: What makes people think that the personal automobile in almost any form will remain popular, or even legal, say 100 yrs from now?

B: People shouldn't extrapolate today's economic conditions into the future where they may not even remotely apply.

C: Suppose the next 1859-like ("Carrington class") solar storm occurs causing loss of spent fuel cooling capacity, "loss of the ultimate heatsink" in dozens, perhaps hundreds of nuclear power plants around the globe, all at the same time, and meltdowns a few hours to days later, in some significant proportion of them..

A: Try making any journey by public transport that is not either To or From a city center, and you will see why it has to be.  To get 60 miles you may have to travel 100 to the nearest city, passing your destination on the way, and then travel 40 back again in the direction you came.  |O

B: Too true, and applies in spades to the mass deployment of wind turbines and the like. Fusion will almost certainly be perfected before '100% renewables' is reached n 2050 or wheneveri. At which point they become scrap. Scrap with a fair proportion of non-recyclable content, too.

C: That is probably an exaggeration, but it IS a valid reason why we should build no more reactors with pressurised water cooling or zirconium fuel cladding.

People in theory will have a lot more time after automation has progressed but it will be very unequally distributed. Poor people won't have more time, working, as many will be, several part time jobs, perhaps traveling huge distances between them, (although this will be reduced because of globalization of services, instead those jobs will likely be bid out to foreign firms) and in the developed countries far more people will be poor than today. They will likely be struggling to maintain a capacity to drive, and as you pointed out, its unlikely that the government policy will make it any easier for them, concerned as it will be by falling rates of purchasing of new automobiles.

What they will do is create huge taxes on older cars, or continually require new capabilities in cars allowed on the roads which only the newer cars have.

Poor people will also be pushed out farther and farther from urban areas and affluent exurbs blessed with better than average public transportation, and lack of credit may make it difficult for them to avail themselves of it where it does exist.  Cashless Cities will exclude them.

Its hard to say what will happen, but the path we are on now leads to a much less positive place than the place many people still think we are going.

 If the essence of capitalism is making profits at any cost I think its basically " written off" its books the necessity of giving anything back to larger and larger segments of society - as its cost of doing business. Dumping a number of important goals by the wayside quietly. You can tell when they have been dumped by the shrill increase in talking about them by politicians, a form of over-compensating.

Younger generations may find it quite difficult to ever attain or maintain parents or grandparents level of wealth under "the new economy".  They may never really be able to strike out on their own. The wealth they would have needed to marry, purchase homes of their own, have children, etc, would have had to come from wages undiluted by predatory globalization.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: splin on January 21, 2018, 07:53:57 pm

What they will do is create huge taxes on older cars, or continually require new capabilities in cars allowed on the roads which only the newer cars have.

Perhaps, but for now, and hopefully the forseable future, governments are elected and much as they might like to impose their will "for the long term good of the nation" (or for the benefit of their cronies and / or post government revolving door employment), there is always a limit to what the voters will tolerate. Especially if a large part of the electorate is disaffected by a reversing economy.

Taking away (relatively) cheap but dirty motoring from the masses and restricting cleaner, but not pollution free, electric motoring to the wealthier may seem attractive, or at least an acceptable option to descision makers in cities like London well served by public transport, but it may not be so well received out in the sticks and poorer towns and cities. Think Brexit...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 21, 2018, 08:25:18 pm
What they will do is create huge taxes on older cars, or continually require new capabilities in cars allowed on the roads which only the newer cars have.
Fortunately the old cars are not scrapped but exported to countries with less strict laws. And sometimes cars don't have to be exported far!
A couple of years ago Germany banned old diesels so many Germans where forced to get rid of them. In the Netherlands we had low tax tariffs for old (collectible) cars. This resulted in many old Mercedes diesel cars being imported into the Netherlands and the owners didn't had to so much ownership taxes. Ofcourse this was a foolish move by the buyers because the hole got plugged quickly. The cars are probably still driving around somewhere in Africa.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Galenbo on January 21, 2018, 08:34:08 pm
Just build a couple of hundreds of Nuclear plants, electricity price will drop and driving electrical will be cheaper than the alternative.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 21, 2018, 08:35:13 pm
It has nothing to do with pollution and everything to do with regulatory capture and enabling hooks for multiple dubious goals such as planned obsolescence and increased access to marketable data and surveillance. The newer a car is the more potential it has as a cash cow to the manufacturer and the various "partners" it may have signed on to. The buyer is buying a hardware platform that to do most of what they want they will have to keep paying. The kind of car that lasted for twenty years with only minimal problems is anathema to modern marketers.

Also, there is surveillance and data mining.  Lots and lots of money in that!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrZ4C9kkZvA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrZ4C9kkZvA)

Also, consider the value of keeping the roads clear of traffic Electric cars and privatization of highways is a hook to restrict freedom to travel or at least travel without interruption to just the better heeled.

It has disruptive potential similar to "Cashless cities"  - in its exclusionary effect.

(in case you hadn't noticed, neoliberalism- like any self respecting doomsday cult (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_cult), almost worships disruption)

Also, how do you decide who is profitable, and who isn't?

If you don't know, who gets the shrinking number of jobs when you're in charge and they are rapidly going away. The "wrong people".

Insurance is a biggie. So are the areas you frequent. Maybe you live near a toxic business thats causing cancer for its neighbors. You dont know that now, nobody does, but in 20 years, the data will stand out like a red thumb. Would everybody who spent a significant amount of time near it - as long as 20 years earlier, become "uninsurables"?

The simple answer is, if the math justified it, and maybe a little more.

They dont want to turn away customers unless there is an actual risk. Some toxic exposures can also be transgenerational, or "epigenetic".  To figure out who is at risk, they need a granularity of information that was never available before. Previously it was too expensive to store all that information also. for example, RTK location data from a cell phone may contain spatial resolution of 2 cm or less and be sampled as much as 20 times a second.  of course, the motion of a car cannot tell potential customers much about its drivers heartbeat. But the amount the car moves downward when he or she gets in can be compared to other similar data to give a very accurate picture of their weight at a given moment in time.

Where you go, how fast you drive. Whose cars park near yours. They can use all that data to build up a profile of the kind of returns they might get of marketing efforts to you.

They wouldn't go to all this effort if the data was not valuable to a multiplicity of buyers.

How do you think they decide who is a good health insurance risk and who isnt, (necessitating they deny coverage, or charge much more for it)  Location has a lot to do with it. Also, by who the owner spends time with, where.

Also, how much money is likely to be spent by person A vs person B. (how much profit is to be made on them)


What they will do is create huge taxes on older cars, or continually require new capabilities in cars allowed on the roads which only the newer cars have.

Perhaps, but for now, and hopefully the forseable future, governments are elected and much as they might like to impose their will "for the long term good of the nation" (or for the benefit of their cronies and / or post government revolving door employment), there is always a limit to what the voters will tolerate. Especially if a large part of the electorate is disaffected by a reversing economy.

Yes, if you replace "corporations" for nations. Corporations are the new people.

Taking away (relatively) cheap but dirty motoring from the masses and restricting cleaner, but not pollution free, electric motoring to the wealthier may seem attractive, or at least an acceptable option to descision makers in cities like London well served by public transport, but it may not be so well received out in the sticks and poorer towns and cities. Think Brexit...

Not knowing about the thing I'm trying to tell you about already caused both Brexit's win, and the 2008 financial crisis, and I can prove that easily in both cases. Its easy to see for yourself, want to know how? in the first instance, look for pictures of a red London bus rented by the UK's "UKIP" party and driven around london in the days before the leave vote, and report back what was printed on it.

The second can be shown by looking on the last page of the last attachment to the last "Specific Commitments" document (Supplement 3) or SC90 Supplement 3 filed in Geneva at the WTO by the US on February 26, 1998 the line about "Glass-Steagall Act reform"

The fact that we still don't know this otherwise huge piece of real news tells us that that information vacuum will be exploited again before this is over, you can bet on it.

The point I am trying to make is that we're all being led into a state of delusion as to our current situation.

We would like to think we have democracy. But do we?

We had it in the past but right now, its at best in the very gravest of danger.

The very idea of a livable, inclusive society and planet, is in grave mortal danger.  Because that dream, that good society we all see as desirable is not the one that corporations want, because its one where their ability to exploit the maximal profits out of every advantage they ca possible get, unfairly - is limited - For example, corporations may not want people who have no money dead, but they dont want them. Its not personal, they just see no value in a person who is not making them money, and the space they occupy if it might be occupied alternatively by somebody who was, they see as a negative.

Because that planet PEOPLE want is NOT - not even close, to the planet MNCs want. For one thing, what happens when people just dont have anything that they want? When nothing that they may be able to do for them has any value. When they no longer have any money to spend and a 50 cent piece of electrovics can do more with in ten seconds than they could in their entire life.

The worst actors - the corporations whose lobbies are bringing about these shifts, can be shown to think completely differently than sane people do.

Do sane human beings see large scale job losses as a gain? No. But, the lobbies of these multinational corporations, and the economics establishment that legitimizes them, as well as the governments that are pushing this system, have all created a alternative reality that selectively builds a value system that bears little or no relation to that held by the rest of the planet.

So, one dirty little secret behind trade agreements is that they frame job losses as 'efficiency gains'. Pretending that those millions of people will simply be freed to do other things. This would be unlikely to be true under the most favorable of economic conditions, but coming as it will during an unprecedented shift in business settings to automation - accompanied by a rapid increase in trans-border specialization, whose acknowledged primary goal is cutting costs, I think its inaccurate to call it anything resembling a gain of any kind, except for those huge corporations which will have created the optimal conditions not just for their own growth but for the creation of a mono-cuture which will likely eliminate many millions of smaller businesses, leaving a vast number of our planets citizens with nothing.

An ideal situation for polluters though, because damages are based on lost wages so unemployed people, the aged and childrens lives are worth - a portion of their lost wages- unless its both an open and shut case, and they have to be given extremely costly care, its not worth a lawyers time taking the case.

This conclusion - that its the definition of insanity to be allowing what they are doing, their stealthy bypassing of the checks and balances we have set up to keep our systems sane and healthy by creation of a global "trading" system to keep the people down and keep the currently up up,. subvert the world's brief experiment with democracy,, is very likely to end in disaster, seems like a logical one to make.

Otherwise, why are they hiding what they are doing? Why do they refuse to discuss its growing list of glaring failures.

What I am trying to tell you is we're being led into a trap that is forcing a cult like mess onto our nations stealthily replacing what people expect with its Doppelganger, or evil twin.


All of the efforts to force corporatism on the planet have a single unifying theme to them all, divide and conquer.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 21, 2018, 08:59:06 pm

Electric cars=hook to restrict freedom to travel to just the better heeled.



You should lay off the drugs, or take off the tinfoil hat for a bit, you seem obsessed with strange conspiracy theories when virtually anything covered by any of those theories could be more easily accomplished without the difficulty of trying to hide the mechanism if there was actually a motive in the first place. Let's say there was actually some sort of motivation for restricting travel, you actually think trying to get everyone in electric cars is even close to the most direct way to do it? That makes no sense at all. Just who is "the man" who wants to restrict travel? Automakers? If I have a car with enough range to get me to the park & ride, bus station, train station and airport, just how exactly is my travel restricted?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 21, 2018, 09:34:16 pm
James_s,

You know what a toll road is, I'm sure.

Well WELCOME TO AMERICA where rigid ideology and extreme unapologetic greed "Trumps" common sense every time.

Where the two parties compete over which can be the most obsequious to the unexpressed wish lists of multinational corporations.

Well one thing needs to be said for politicians today. they know where the money is. And isn't.

What percentage of Americans today could not come up with a few thousand dollars to cover a sudden emergency that came up?

In other words, how many of us are living "paycheck to paycheck"? 

More than a third.

We should preserve every job we can, and not trade them away like poker chips in a board (or shell) game is perhaps more appropriate..  And not make decisions that take millions of perfectly servicable cars off the road (or affordable houses and apartments away from families for that matter, by making them "too expensive to heat" and eligible for condemnation as 'blight' under eminent domain.).

A boon to real estate development, to be sure, however.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 21, 2018, 11:15:38 pm
Just build a couple of hundreds of Nuclear plants, electricity price will drop and driving electrical will be cheaper than the alternative.
With the current type of nuclear power plants in use that isn't the case. The costs for dismantling and storage of contaminated materials is huge. AFAIK electricity from wind and solar is starting to get cheaper than nuclear.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on January 21, 2018, 11:22:06 pm
Don't know if anyone else posted this already, but here's a report from UBS about the Chevy Bolt:

http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf (http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf)

They bought a Bolt and tore it down to independently figure out how it was put together, costs and profit opportunities. It's long (95 pages!), but I figured it was apropos this thread since it tries to answer questions like cost parity between EVs and ICE cars.

tl;dr: they expect it to reach cost parity with the VW Golf by 2025 in the US (earlier in Europe).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 22, 2018, 05:28:08 am
My friend has a Bolt, he bought it used when it was about a year old, I forget how much he paid for it but it was pretty reasonable. I drove it once, that thing is scary fast. At highway speed it's only average but from a stop if you stomp on the "gas" it goes like stink, feels faster than anything else I've driven.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on January 22, 2018, 07:02:41 am
My friend has a Bolt, he bought it used when it was about a year old, I forget how much he paid for it but it was pretty reasonable. I drove it once, that thing is scary fast. At highway speed it's only average but from a stop if you stomp on the "gas" it goes like stink, feels faster than anything else I've driven.

Yup, I love mine, 260 ft lb in a car that size is fun. Also it sounds like a muted version of the Tumbler from the Dark Knight trilogy ;D
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gmb42 on January 22, 2018, 12:26:54 pm
Don't know if anyone else posted this already, but here's a report from UBS about the Chevy Bolt:

http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf (http://www.advantagelithium.com/_resources/pdf/UBS-Article.pdf)

They bought a Bolt and tore it down to independently figure out how it was put together, costs and profit opportunities. It's long (95 pages!), but I figured it was apropos this thread since it tries to answer questions like cost parity between EVs and ICE cars.

tl;dr: they expect it to reach cost parity with the VW Golf by 2025 in the US (earlier in Europe).

I'd posted earlier (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1387777/#msg1387777) in the thread with a link to a report (https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/25/timeline-electric-vehicle-revolution-via-lower-battery-prices-supercharging-lower-battery-prices/) on when the crossover between the costs of ICE and EV will happen in the mainstream vehicle categories. The report reckons 2024/25, although it is from an EV leaning site.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 22, 2018, 12:49:12 pm
Electric Bikes already are very mainstream in many areas.  And for lots of light personal transportation needs they are just right.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on January 23, 2018, 08:09:54 am
I scanned the thread, I'm sure it's come up, but being a little UK centric here...

The public purse has lost most of it's tobacco duty.  They currently don't charge duty on home energy use.

When EVs become more and more popular, I think it's like 5% at the moment, the public purse will lose the fuel duty which is about 80-90% of the price of fuel.

Will we all have to accept the Kwh rate rising rapidly as duty is applied to all domestic electricity?  Will UK electric vehicles start to be fitted with special plugs with special phase that makes them only compatible with regulated approved and taxed sockets?  Surely ebay kits will appear to convert from normal mains.  Do we then get into the TV license debacle with inspectors calling to check your car charging station?

A lot of electric charging points are currently FREE.  EV owners are unbareable in their smugness.  When electric charging points start charging 50p or £1 per KWh how will they feel then?

Worse.  If my electric goes from £0.158 per KWh to £0.80 per KWh when I don't even own an EV I will not be happy with EV owners!  Nor will the little old ladies who will freeze in winter and die before they will be able to afford that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Someone on January 23, 2018, 09:10:09 am
I scanned the thread, I'm sure it's come up, but being a little UK centric here...

The public purse has lost most of it's tobacco duty.  They currently don't charge duty on home energy use.

When EVs become more and more popular, I think it's like 5% at the moment, the public purse will lose the fuel duty which is about 80-90% of the price of fuel.

Will we all have to accept the Kwh rate rising rapidly as duty is applied to all domestic electricity?  Will UK electric vehicles start to be fitted with special plugs with special phase that makes them only compatible with regulated approved and taxed sockets?  Surely ebay kits will appear to convert from normal mains.  Do we then get into the TV license debacle with inspectors calling to check your car charging station?

A lot of electric charging points are currently FREE.  EV owners are unbareable in their smugness.  When electric charging points start charging 50p or £1 per KWh how will they feel then?

Worse.  If my electric goes from £0.158 per KWh to £0.80 per KWh when I don't even own an EV I will not be happy with EV owners!  Nor will the little old ladies who will freeze in winter and die before they will be able to afford that.
Its a common challenge around the world, owing to the challenges of trying to tax electricity predictions are that many countries will turn to simple things like annual odometer counts and scaling registration costs to the km travelled.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on January 23, 2018, 10:34:54 am
Its a common challenge around the world, owing to the challenges of trying to tax electricity predictions are that many countries will turn to simple things like annual odometer counts and scaling registration costs to the km travelled.

That will put another dent in the EV users smug faces.  They currently don't pay road tax either!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Blocco on January 23, 2018, 04:23:45 pm
I scanned the thread, I'm sure it's come up, but being a little UK centric here...

The public purse has lost most of it's tobacco duty.  They currently don't charge duty on home energy use.

When EVs become more and more popular, I think it's like 5% at the moment, the public purse will lose the fuel duty which is about 80-90% of the price of fuel.

Will we all have to accept the Kwh rate rising rapidly as duty is applied to all domestic electricity?  Will UK electric vehicles start to be fitted with special plugs with special phase that makes them only compatible with regulated approved and taxed sockets?  Surely ebay kits will appear to convert from normal mains.  Do we then get into the TV license debacle with inspectors calling to check your car charging station?

A lot of electric charging points are currently FREE.  EV owners are unbareable in their smugness.  When electric charging points start charging 50p or £1 per KWh how will they feel then?

Worse.  If my electric goes from £0.158 per KWh to £0.80 per KWh when I don't even own an EV I will not be happy with EV owners!  Nor will the little old ladies who will freeze in winter and die before they will be able to afford that.

Plenty of imaginary scenarios to get annoyed about there >:(. What I think we are most likely to see as electric cars become more popular is a rapid increase in excise duty (currently £0) for electric vehicles and ultimately, road pricing by ANPR cameras for everyone. There isn't a better time to buy a used electric car because, in the longer term, motoring is likely to become much more expensive for all road users.

Edit... Coincidentally; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42792813 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42792813)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Galenbo on January 24, 2018, 06:07:28 pm
AFAIK electricity from wind and solar is starting to get cheaper than nuclear.
Yes I heard that too, after some bankruptcies and subsidized start-through, the neo-renewables are getting cheaper than (nuclear+renewable taxes)
Cheaper average, of course, especially when momentary electricity prices go to zero or even negative.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: fcb on January 24, 2018, 07:00:02 pm
Its a common challenge around the world, owing to the challenges of trying to tax electricity predictions are that many countries will turn to simple things like annual odometer counts and scaling registration costs to the km travelled.

That will put another dent in the EV users smug faces.  They currently don't pay road tax either!

Road pricing.  And probably toll roads, the time-over-distance cameras that are springing up everywhere will see to that.

They'll never succeed in taxing the energy to charge an EV, it's untraceable (charging at work will become a benefit-in-kind though).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 24, 2018, 10:04:05 pm
I bet that when you add in the cost of disposing of the waste and especially the risk of possible meltdowns if you don't keep it properly supplied with cooling water, nuclear fission power ends up being the most expensive power source of them all.

AFAIK electricity from wind and solar is starting to get cheaper than nuclear.
Yes I heard that too, after some bankruptcies and subsidized start-through, the neo-renewables are getting cheaper than (nuclear+renewable taxes)
Cheaper average, of course, especially when momentary electricity prices go to zero or even negative.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on January 25, 2018, 08:09:43 am
I bet that when you add in the cost of disposing of the waste and especially the risk of possible meltdowns if you don't keep it properly supplied with cooling water, nuclear fission power ends up being the most expensive power source of them all.

With current Rickover reactor design yes.  We have the cold war and the US Navy to thank for the mess we are in.  There are much less wasteful, much less cooling sensitive and fail safe reactor designs which have been tested in small scale, but Rickover reactors produce weapons grade plutonium as a waste product.  You do the maths.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on January 25, 2018, 10:16:34 pm
Nuclear is obsolete. From the cost point of view.
And we will have to clean this mess, and our children will have to suffer from it. ('we' meaning all the people from the concerned nations)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 25, 2018, 10:19:51 pm
Nuclear is going to be around for a long time to come, the energy demands of the world just keep rapidly increasing. I'd like to see some of the older more dangerous and less efficient plants replaced with more modern designs but the anti-nuke lobby has been doing a fine job of keeping the old ones running by blocking the construction of newer and safer plants.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on January 25, 2018, 10:27:01 pm
If a country goes into economic collapse, all of their assets such as exportable fuels, water, money saved on behalf of social security, etc, can be applied towards their debt.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on January 26, 2018, 12:52:16 am
That could render much of the planet uninhabitable.

What would be done then?
It´s in the sense of the words already... if things get "out of control" in the future for someone who is responsible, things will be "out of control" by definition. I don´t see where that possibility inhibits anyone today from doing something completely different that is within anyones control.

Regarding nuclear power: for me it is questionable if a nuclear power plant from green meadow -> built -> operated -> decommissioned -> green meadow will be cost neutral or positive. There is no lobby needed, except for small details like leaving a radioactive industrial ruin behind after defaulting on cost.... not poisioning people (related or unrelated to that) or so. If a calculation that takes these things into account does not work, it will not be built, if it would... it would be built (somewhere or the contracts would not be made in an election year).

Ok, admittedly there are things like greenwashing and people that are suspicous probably want that suspicion to be compensated financially, so yes, there is some cost attached to what the public opinion is, but aside from that there should be a fixed cost to do this in a safe and legal way. It is imho too simple to blame the public opinion if the calculation did not work out in the first place.

OTOH big projects this scale always have skyrocketing costs and build times... which always makes me wonder how safe that piece was in the planning stage and can be in operation if the plan needed to be changed e.g. 100 times - under the premise of "being a proven and safe design".


Ok, back to topic:
The personal car is a decentral mode of transportation, relatively diverse, maintainable by people with mediocre mechanical skills and a small set of tools. Nothing of that changes when talking electric cars. They have brakes and other wear parts that do need maintenance too.

Imho such systems are more resilient than centralized systems as they have different weaknesses. It´s like comparing bus drivers (of well maintained busses) going on strike (you are screwed and its their fault) vs. not maintaining your car (you are screwed and its your fault :-) ).

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on January 26, 2018, 08:35:46 pm
Imho such systems are more resilient than centralized systems as they have different weaknesses. It´s like comparing bus drivers (of well maintained busses) going on strike (you are screwed and its their fault) vs. not maintaining your car (you are screwed and its your fault :-) ).
Yes. Public transport is highly unreliable as I noticed last week and yesterday. It takes a bit of wind or a person jumping in front of a train to cause utter chaos.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on January 26, 2018, 11:09:47 pm
Imho such systems are more resilient than centralized systems as they have different weaknesses. It´s like comparing bus drivers (of well maintained busses) going on strike (you are screwed and its their fault) vs. not maintaining your car (you are screwed and its your fault :-) ).
Yes. Public transport is highly unreliable as I noticed last week and yesterday. It takes a bit of wind or a person jumping in front of a train to cause utter chaos.
Not everyone's public transport is highly unreliable. That's kind of a national choice. Some people have public transport that fails them less often than major road incidents cause car driver's journeys to fail.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on January 27, 2018, 12:57:52 am
When I worked downtown for a while I took the bus almost every day, it was more reliable at getting me to work on time than my car as traffic made the car trip take anywhere from 25 minutes to nearly 2 hours, the bus was pretty consistently about an hour.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on January 27, 2018, 10:15:08 am
Nothing of that changes when talking electric cars. They have brakes and other wear parts that do need maintenance too.

They do a lot of braking by running the motors in reverse as generators, that doesn't wear brake pads out at all.

Nuclear is going to be around for a long time to come, the energy demands of the world just keep rapidly increasing. I'd like to see some of the older more dangerous and less efficient plants replaced with more modern designs

Yep. Those old ones were designed for making bombs. Electricity generation was just how they sold it to the public.

If (eg.) the USA spend the price of a couple of F35s on energy research instead they could solve most of the world's energy problems.

but the anti-nuke lobby has been doing a fine job of keeping the old ones running by blocking the construction of newer and safer plants.

Yep. That and the fact that electricity has been privatized throughout most of the world. Private funding makes power plants hundreds of times more expensive to build.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economics_of_nuclear_power_plants#Capital_costs
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on January 28, 2018, 11:01:46 pm
Yep. That and the fact that electricity has been privatized throughout most of the world. Private funding makes power plants hundreds of times more expensive to build.
Not really. Private funding does not make them more expensive, it only digs up the massive hidden costs that are insurance, decomissionning, waste treatment, waste storage, as well as accident cleanup costs.
These are usually simply swept under the carpet when run publicly.
Private investing doesn't work like that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on February 02, 2018, 11:22:16 pm
Countries are being forced to privatize everything irreversibly (including utilities, roads, healthcare, higher education, etc.) by undemocratic trade in services agreements.

And once they privatize something it becomes impossibly expensive to ever get it back. People cant just vote to get back public services.

Thats the Catch 22 as they say.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: cdev on February 02, 2018, 11:26:42 pm
Depending on who bids on it the costs could go down a lot - for example if a foreign firm gets the lowest bid and wins the contract.

being foreign they can import their workforce (as long as they are temps) and they can end up paying them almost nothing.

This is a huge loophole in labor laws created by these "agreements" and it shows why they are being so dishonest about them. Greed is a powerful motivator for dishonesty.

They claim these changes are meant to help the least developed countries but thats totally bullshit.

Yep. That and the fact that electricity has been privatized throughout most of the world. Private funding makes power plants hundreds of times more expensive to build.
Not really. Private funding does not make them more expensive, it only digs up the massive hidden costs that are insurance, decomissionning, waste treatment, waste storage, as well as accident cleanup costs.
These are usually simply swept under the carpet when run publicly.
Private investing doesn't work like that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: rstofer on March 29, 2018, 10:03:28 pm
My friend has a Bolt, he bought it used when it was about a year old, I forget how much he paid for it but it was pretty reasonable. I drove it once, that thing is scary fast. At highway speed it's only average but from a stop if you stomp on the "gas" it goes like stink, feels faster than anything else I've driven.

I have a 2017 Bolt and, yes, it's quick.  The thing is, the 2014 Chevy Spark EV I had before was even quicker - a LOT quicker.  So much quicker that Chevy had to tone things down and the Bolt is the result.  The Spark EV has been out of production for a while

Mid range passing is awesome.

The Bolt was introduced in the 2017 model year and I think we had the 2d one in our town.

200 HP of electric motor is a lot of fun!

And, no, I'm not trying to save the planet!  I'm a retired EE and have an interest in things electric.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanB on March 29, 2018, 10:16:49 pm
I have a 2017 Bolt and, yes, it's quick.  The thing is, the 2014 Chevy Spark EV I had before was even quicker - a LOT quicker.  So much quicker that Chevy had to tone things down and the Bolt is the result.  The Spark EV has been out of production for a while

I've been in a Spark and yes, it was ridiculously quick to accelerate from low speeds.

In contrast I drove a Nissan Leaf this week. That car is tuned for "relaxation mode". It doesn't want you to race, it wants you to chill and watch the scenery.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on April 01, 2018, 01:38:41 pm
Here, the government has a department set up specifically to push 'low emission vehicles (https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/office-for-low-emission-vehicles)' -and it becomes apparent that the 'emissions' this refers to is CO2, not toxins.  Battery cars and charge points figure heavily.

This worries me, because it's another example of force-feeding a nascent technology to the public. We've seen this all too often before, where the force-fed technology, after huge public spending, gets superseded by better technology. The result is typically a monster scrap pile. CFL lightbulbs are a case in point.  :palm:

The tech that would kill the battery car stone dead, is a fuel cell which runs on something more easily stored than hydrogen or methane. Which may not be all that far away. The Bloom Box came as something of a surprise, and many people thought it was a scam to start with. No, it's actually a great product.  :-+

The other point that seems to have escaped them, is that the idea of supplying battery cars from renewable energy is a pipedream. After more than 20 years of deploying renewables they cannot even supply our electricity demands, let alone transport energy requirements too. So, the battery cars would simply transfer the point at which the CO2 is released to a power station, and would solve nothing. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 01, 2018, 01:57:46 pm
The other point that seems to have escaped them, is that the idea of supplying battery cars from renewable energy is a pipedream. After more than 20 years of deploying renewables they cannot even supply our electricity demands, let alone transport energy requirements too. So, the battery cars would simply transfer the point at which the CO2 is released to a power station, and would solve nothing.

Yep.

https://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/wells-to-wheels-electric-car-efficiency/

I haven't read it in a whlie, but I think he got to 6% more efficient.  However I believe there are few things unconsidered, such as how much power is lost in electrical transmission for the power plant to the charge station etc.  and how much is lost charging the battery itself.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 01, 2018, 02:29:08 pm
The other point that seems to have escaped them, is that the idea of supplying battery cars from renewable energy is a pipedream.

The combination of solar PV on my roof and Bolt EV I drive ~65 mi each day still gives me a net negative energy usage, especially in the summer. In the winter I expect things to further improve after I replace the resistance heaters we have in our home with heat pumps.


https://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/wells-to-wheels-electric-car-efficiency/ (https://matter2energy.wordpress.com/2013/02/22/wells-to-wheels-electric-car-efficiency/)

I haven't read it in a whlie, but I think he got to 6% more efficient.  However I believe there are few things unconsidered, such as how much power is lost in electrical transmission for the power plant to the charge station etc.  and how much is lost charging the battery itself.

He got 29% for a BEV and 14% for an ICE car. He took into account a 7% grid loss and a 20% loss in the battery charging process. His example BEV is a Tesla, I seem to get somewhat lower losses (about 16%) with my Bolt EV. The car tracks how much energy was used by the traction motor, and my charger tracks how much energy was used during a charge cycle. The only time there's a big discrepancy is when outside temps fall below freezing, and the car goes into battery conditioning mode where it runs a heater to keep the battery at optimum temperature.

Of course, this doesn't take into account the almost zero maintenance costs of a BEV.

(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=408482;image)

Edit: inlining image
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 01, 2018, 02:52:37 pm
And how many charge cycles will the battery do before it becomes sub-par and needs replacing?

I know Lithium battery specs show a vast spectrum of figures from losing 15% capacity in 100 cycles to 1000 cycles depending on use and DOD/C etc.

In a practical sense and how a lot of people might use an EV, an overnight charge, every night sounds reasonable.  So exactly the same way you might use a cell/mobile phone.  Running between 50% charge and 100% charge daily.  We all know that the battery in a cell phone isn't at it's best after 1 year, noticably lower in capacity after 2 years and fairly useless after 3 years cutting out mid day.  I would expect the figures for EVs to be much better given how expensive they are and how much battery management goes into the thing, but even if they double that, you are talking about the battery losing a sizable portion of it's range in 5-10 years and needing replaced.  By that time it will be financially far more efficient to dump the car in the scrap yard and buy a new one than to replace the battery, which will probably cost a sizable portion of a whole new car!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 01, 2018, 03:07:28 pm
And how many charge cycles will the battery do before it becomes sub-par and needs replacing?

I know Lithium battery specs show a vast spectrum of figures from losing 15% capacity in 100 cycles to 1000 cycles depending on use and DOD/C etc.

In a practical sense and how a lot of people might use an EV, an overnight charge, every night sounds reasonable.  So exactly the same way you might use a cell/mobile phone.  Running between 50% charge and 100% charge daily.  We all know that the battery in a cell phone isn't at it's best after 1 year, noticably lower in capacity after 2 years and fairly useless after 3 years cutting out mid day.  I would expect the figures for EVs to be much better given how expensive they are and how much battery management goes into the thing, but even if they double that, you are talking about the battery losing a sizable portion of it's range in 5-10 years and needing replaced.  By that time it will be financially far more efficient to dump the car in the scrap yard and buy a new one than to replace the battery, which will probably cost a sizable portion of a whole new car!
Its only quite recently that the pool of fairly old electric cars, needing out of warranty battery work, has become significant. Nissan are now setting up a operation offering refurbished Leaf battery packs for sale. Time will tell if this turns out to be a cost effective way to keep older Leafs viable.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 01, 2018, 03:23:06 pm
And how many charge cycles will the battery do before it becomes sub-par and needs replacing?

I don't have a good answer, but I can make an educated guess. Tesla and Volt (with a V) batteries aren't failing in large numbers, these cars have been around for some time now. Leaf batteries have some reported failures (unacceptable loss of capacity). The big difference between the two is the Leaf does not have active thermal management for the battery pack. With some care in the charge management (and barring manufacturing defects), Lithium batteries should last a while. The Gen II Volts and all Bolt EVs use a modified LiMnCo chemistry (higher Mn proportional to Co) to prioritize battery life. Teslas, as far as I know, use standard LiMnCo chemistry, and still don't have early failures.

Cellphones are about the worst case for Lithium batteries, since they pack a lot of heat-generating electronics right up against the cells. I'd invite the curious to look up the WeberAuto Youtube channel's teardown of a Bolt EV battery pack to see how LG engineers the thermal management.

Per the evaluations done by UBS, the battery costs $12,500, which is about 1/4-1/3 the value of the car (depending on pre- or post-rebate cost). GreenCarReports indicates that including labor, it's closer to $15,700 (1/3 to 1/2). They also note that in 7 years, not a single Volt has required a battery replacement for capacity degradation.

Finally, the Bolt EV has an 8 year battery warranty. That should be plenty to take care of early failures.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 01, 2018, 03:27:48 pm
Tesla and Volt (with a V) batteries aren't failing in large numbers, these cars have been around for some time now.
I know this is anecdotal, but I only know 2 people with a Volt, and both needed their battery refurbished under warranty. They had considerable downtime, as the pack was removed from their car and sent to another part of the country for the rebuild. GM refused to tell them the extent of the rework that was needed.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 01, 2018, 03:43:15 pm
I see the warranties.  I don't see the "Level of capacity loss required" to activate a warranty claim.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 01, 2018, 06:09:03 pm
I see the warranties.  I don't see the "Level of capacity loss required" to activate a warranty claim.
https://electrek.co/2016/12/07/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-battery-degradation-up-to-40-warranty/ (https://electrek.co/2016/12/07/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-battery-degradation-up-to-40-warranty/)

Sounds like 40%, which is a bit high. On the other hand, data collected by a Tesla user forum seems to indicate 5% capacity loss at 50,000 mi, with little roll-off after that:

https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/ (https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/)

Here's another listing:

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107864_electric-car-battery-warranties-compared (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107864_electric-car-battery-warranties-compared)

I know this is anecdotal, but I only know 2 people with a Volt, and both needed their battery refurbished under warranty. They had considerable downtime, as the pack was removed from their car and sent to another part of the country for the rebuild. GM refused to tell them the extent of the rework that was needed.

Was this for reduced capacity reasons, or for failures due to manufacturing defects? I'm aware that the latter has happened, even for the newer cars like the Bolt EV. Bolt forums have a couple of posts where owners found their car would not start, indicating "conditions not right for shift" on the dashboard. These were often on cars with only a few hundred miles, and could be traced to an early lot of batteries from LG.

This was likely mentioned earlier in this very thread, the same concerns were raised when hybrid cars were introduced, and they've all done just fine.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 01, 2018, 06:23:51 pm
Worthless anecdotes aside, by all accounts of the > 100k Chevy Volts in the wild, battery failures have been extremely rare. That includes Volts with  >300K miles driven and no apparent battery degradation.

There is a very active Chevy Volt forum (http://gm-volt.com/forum/forum.php) and like all such forums any reported failure is much analyzed and discussed.

My worthless anecdote is that I've had my Volt for 3.5 years and the only maintenance needed so far is one oil change. Next service/oil change coming up in 6 months.  Lowest cost of ownership car I've ever owned - by far..
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 01, 2018, 06:37:15 pm
I know this is anecdotal, but I only know 2 people with a Volt, and both needed their battery refurbished under warranty. They had considerable downtime, as the pack was removed from their car and sent to another part of the country for the rebuild. GM refused to tell them the extent of the rework that was needed.

Was this for reduced capacity reasons, or for failures due to manufacturing defects?
The problems were massively reduced capacity, not a solid failure. Both owners believe, from dealer comments, that a substantial number of cells were replaced, but as I said before, GM wouldn't give them a proper answer.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on April 03, 2018, 12:00:58 pm
What still surprises me is that most discussions in this topic are all about very minor issues.

I have been following some lectures on this whole subject recently (I am searching if I can find some papers/videos who cover the same content).
All major big cities and densely populated countries suffer from a very difficult problem; atmospheric particulate matter or in simple words, dust and grime pollution particles in the air.

Most people only know it as smog, which is a very extreme form of this. But even without having that much smog the air quality can be pretty bad and polluted (especially locally).
It is somewhat the equivalent of smoking a couple of packs of cigarettes every month.
(it more or less has the same negative effects).
It basically is the same as letting your kids smoke a cigarette every day, which naturally people wouldn't agree on.

I said it before, it's not a question if electric cars will become mainstream.
They WILL become mainstream. There is more than enough well done research and experiments to provide prove that otherwise our health will be in danger.
That's also one of the reasons why they already ban diesels and old cars in some cities.
I am not saying that I agree on all of it, but in the bigger meaning it makes sense.
And every choice has its consequences. but to be very honest if it can give as a much healthier city to live in, I am willing to sacrifice a thing or two
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 03, 2018, 12:09:00 pm
I said it before, it's not a question if electric cars will become mainstream.
They WILL become mainstream.

I agree. Electric is simply better for everything except noise.

The only thing in the way is the batteries. I'm not sure if higher capacity is really possible, what's really needed is fast charging. If we can get charging down to a couple of minutes then it solves most issues.

(apart from infrastructure needed to get enough electrons to recharging stations)

PS: Engine noise can be synthesized.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2018, 12:11:27 pm
For me the reasons I will not, yet, consider an electric car are:

Cost.
Range.

Electric cars typically cost twice as much as petrol/diesel cars, everything else being the same.  This is somewhat offset by government subsidies though.

Performance v. Cost.  While you can get quite a few little city cars which will be nippy around town or on quick shopping trips, they are fairly under powered.  Given that I drive a 2 litre normally aspirated sports car.  Engine performance aside there are chassis performances and car type factors.  Rear wheel drive sporty electrics are not available in anything like my budget yet.

I'm sure this will change though over time.

Range.  95% of the time I drive about 50 miles a day.  So I could easily plug an electric in overnight or even for an hour at the shopping centre.  The HR girl in work drives a BMW electric (the one with the tiny generator for emergencies), she only ever plugs it in when she goes shopping.  Hasn't spent a penny on electric or fuel in 6 months of owning it.

However there are the handful of times a year when I make a 300-400 mile round trip in a day.  If I owned an average electric city car it just wouldn't be practical with the 100-150mile range.  I'd need to at least stop over at the destination for however long it takes to rapid charge the pack back up to make it home.  If you do run out on the motorway it is an offense in the UK to drive on a motorway knowing that your car is not fit for the journey, suficient fuel included.  You could be prosecuted (though highly unlikely).  Once at the side of the road though, what are your options?  Tow truck?  In a petrol car I can walk, or get a lift to a petrol station and almost all break down providers carry spare fuel.

EDIT: On that later point.  I envision "pluggable" batteries.  Standardised packs the size of a suitcase that goes where the spare wheel would have.  Garages can sell these in a swap an empty for a full one in the same way we do gas cylinders.  This would go a long way to easy range anxiety.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2018, 12:13:30 pm
Copper is becoming a concern.

Already the market for copper in battery cells is putting pressure on electronics, electrics and other domains, the price of copper is rising steadily.

If electric car popularity jumps by an order of magnitude in the next 10 years that will seriously raise the price of a lot of other things.  Recycling of the batteries is lagging behind too.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on April 03, 2018, 12:26:19 pm
I said it before, it's not a question if electric cars will become mainstream.
They WILL become mainstream.

I agree. Electric is simply better for everything except noise.

The only thing in the way is the batteries. I'm not sure if higher capacity is really possible, what's really needed is fast charging. If we can get charging down to a couple of minutes then it solves most issues.

(apart from infrastructure needed to get enough electrons to recharging stations)

PS: Engine noise can be synthesized.
Noise? As in lack of noise you mean i guess?
Like you said, you can do something about that, although most noise actually comes from the tires.
(unless they are driving slowly)

Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.
Nowadays charging to around 80% in 15min is possible, which I think is already very reasonable.

It's just a matter of different thinking and planning. If you drive that far you need to take a (pee) break anyway.
I think the plugin hybrids are a very good alternative, if you're in rural areas emissions are less of an issue anyway.
So use the electric motor for slow speeds and use the combustion engine to keep your car driving around 120km/h.
(at slow speeds your combustion engine is performing bad anyway)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: grumpydoc on April 03, 2018, 12:44:20 pm
The tech that would kill the battery car stone dead, is a fuel cell which runs on something more easily stored than hydrogen or methane. Which may not be all that far away. The Bloom Box came as something of a surprise, and many people thought it was a scam to start with. No, it's actually a great product.  :-+
There was interest in Ethanol fuel cells, what happened to that?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 03, 2018, 01:16:38 pm
For me the reasons I will not, yet, consider an electric car are:

Cost.

Purchase price is high at the moment but running costs are far lower. If you do the math there isn't much difference in equivalent cars.

The problem is more a lack of 'equivalent' cars. Teslas are high-end luxury, Nissan leafs are low-end tiny. There's not an awful lot in between.  :(

Range.

... there are the handful of times a year when I make a 300-400 mile round trip in a day. 

You could rent an ICE car for those days.

(while we wait for them to invent fast-charging batteries)

EDIT: On that later point.  I envision "pluggable" batteries.  Standardised packs the size of a suitcase that goes where the spare wheel would have.  Garages can sell these in a swap an empty for a full one in the same way we do gas cylinders.  This would go a long way to easy range anxiety.

I envision some sort of battery-trailer attachment that you can hook up for long trips.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 03, 2018, 01:33:29 pm
PS: Engine noise can be synthesized.
Noise? As in lack of noise you mean i guess?

No, I mean noise. Some people don't believe they're driving a car unless they're annoying the neighbors with an obnoxiously loud exhaust system.

It's already a solved problem - many luxury cars already have enhanced engine sound at the push of a button.

Some manufacturers are even faking it without telling the buyers (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/americas-best-selling-cars-and-trucks-are-built-on-lies-the-rise-of-fake-engine-noise/2015/01/21/6db09a10-a0ba-11e4-b146-577832eafcb4_story.html?utm_term=.ba1cc3954279). Salesman: "Listen to the engine, that's real power!" :-DD


Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.

The trick would be to increase the voltage, not the amps.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2018, 01:37:46 pm
Some manufacturers are faking it without telling the buyers (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/americas-best-selling-cars-and-trucks-are-built-on-lies-the-rise-of-fake-engine-noise/2015/01/21/6db09a10-a0ba-11e4-b146-577832eafcb4_story.html?utm_term=.ba1cc3954279). Salesman: "Listen to the engine, that's real power!" :-DD

My car has augmented exhaust sound in the cabin, but it's not fake.

It's actually raw analogue in injected induction noise.  The airbox feed pipe to the manifold splits and going through a diaphragm resonator (to keep out the actual air), then pipped to the drivers cabin floor where it comes through a small hole.

It increases the engine note inside the car without annoying the neighbours out side.

If you don't like it, you can pull the blanking plug out of one of the 3 12V utility sockets, pull teh carpet back and stuff it in the hole muting it. :)

Alternatively you can go to any carphooler website or even the manufacturer tuning brand (TRD) and buy different plug to change the sound for £35 each.... for a plastic plug.  A plastic wine 'cork' will do too.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 03, 2018, 01:42:37 pm
If you don't like it, you can pull the blanking plug out of one of the 3 12V utility sockets, pull teh carpet back and stuff it in the hole muting it. :)

Alternatively you can go to any carphooler website or even the manufacturer tuning brand (TRD) and buy different plug to change the sound for £35 each.... for a plastic plug.  A plastic wine 'cork' will do too.

If I were the manufacturer I'd add a $1 electric valve, a $0.50 switch labelled "sports mode", and sell it as a $250 option.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 03, 2018, 02:03:40 pm
If you don't like it, you can pull the blanking plug out of one of the 3 12V utility sockets, pull teh carpet back and stuff it in the hole muting it. :)

Alternatively you can go to any carphooler website or even the manufacturer tuning brand (TRD) and buy different plug to change the sound for £35 each.... for a plastic plug.  A plastic wine 'cork' will do too.

If I were the manufacturer I'd add a $1 electric valve, a $0.50 switch labelled "sports mode", and sell it as a $250 option.

You know the VW Bettle (The new one based on the Polo?)  I found out the other day that the plastic sunflower you see on the dash of those is actually a purchase time option with a fairly non-trivial value for a plastic plant you can buy at a market stall for $0.99!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 03, 2018, 04:40:41 pm

Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.
Nowadays charging to around 80% in 15min is possible, which I think is already very reasonable.

I still don't understand why so many people get hung up on fast charging. Most of us already plug in our phones every night, how much of an adjustment is it to plug in our cars every night too? I know several people with electric cars now and that's exactly what they all do. Pull into the driveway or garage, get out, plug the cord into the car then head into the house. All of them love the fact that it's so convenient, it's like having a gas station right in their own driveway.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on April 03, 2018, 05:17:24 pm
PS: Engine noise can be synthesized.
Noise? As in lack of noise you mean i guess?

No, I mean noise. Some people don't believe they're driving a car unless they're annoying the neighbors with an obnoxiously loud exhaust system.

It's already a solved problem - many luxury cars already have enhanced engine sound at the push of a button.

Some manufacturers are even faking it without telling the buyers (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/americas-best-selling-cars-and-trucks-are-built-on-lies-the-rise-of-fake-engine-noise/2015/01/21/6db09a10-a0ba-11e4-b146-577832eafcb4_story.html?utm_term=.ba1cc3954279). Salesman: "Listen to the engine, that's real power!" :-DD


Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.

The trick would be to increase the voltage, not the amps.
Increasing voltage or amps, it's still the same amount of ENERGY, which is dangerous.


Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.
Nowadays charging to around 80% in 15min is possible, which I think is already very reasonable.

I still don't understand why so many people get hung up on fast charging. Most of us already plug in our phones every night, how much of an adjustment is it to plug in our cars every night too? I know several people with electric cars now and that's exactly what they all do. Pull into the driveway or garage, get out, plug the cord into the car then head into the house. All of them love the fact that it's so convenient, it's like having a gas station right in their own driveway.
It's about when your batteries are empty after a long drive, halfway your journey.
For daily commute you can charge at night yes
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 03, 2018, 05:28:33 pm
I still don't understand why so many people get hung up on fast charging. Most of us already plug in our phones every night, how much of an adjustment is it to plug in our cars every night too? I know several people with electric cars now and that's exactly what they all do. Pull into the driveway or garage, get out, plug the cord into the car then head into the house. All of them love the fact that it's so convenient, it's like having a gas station right in their own driveway.
Fast charging is all about long journeys, not the daily run around.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 03, 2018, 05:35:06 pm
I still don't understand why so many people get hung up on fast charging. Most of us already plug in our phones every night, how much of an adjustment is it to plug in our cars every night too? I know several people with electric cars now and that's exactly what they all do. Pull into the driveway or garage, get out, plug the cord into the car then head into the house. All of them love the fact that it's so convenient, it's like having a gas station right in their own driveway.

a) In the world we live in an awful lot of people have to park in the street.
b) Long journeys or overnighting away from home.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 03, 2018, 05:40:59 pm
Fast charging is just all about physics. You need a huge energy dump at once.
Which is not only very difficult to do for the grid (you can back that up with batteries to some extend), but also bad for the electronics and batteries, as well as being potentially dangerous.
The trick would be to increase the voltage, not the amps.
Increasing voltage or amps, it's still the same amount of ENERGY, which is dangerous.

Not quite: Voltage is more manageable than amps, danger-wise - see the discussion of arc flash in the analog vs. digital meter blog thread.

What I really meant to say was that less amps is better for the batteries/cables/connectors. As a side benefit you also get less overall losses in the system.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 03, 2018, 05:53:30 pm
I still don't understand why so many people get hung up on fast charging. Most of us already plug in our phones every night, how much of an adjustment is it to plug in our cars every night too? I know several people with electric cars now and that's exactly what they all do. Pull into the driveway or garage, get out, plug the cord into the car then head into the house. All of them love the fact that it's so convenient, it's like having a gas station right in their own driveway.

a) In the world we live in an awful lot of people have to park in the street.
b) Long journeys or overnighting away from home.
Street parking could be a problem, but there are plenty of others. Tesla has sold a lot of cars in HK. Most people who can afford one have an assigned parking space within their apartment block. However, the building management people won't usually give permission for power to be laid on at that parking space. Thus, they can only charge at a supercharger, but those are occupied all day long. If you go to the superchargers in the middle of the night you'll find a line of Teslas driven by Filipino maids, getting the car ready for the boss in the morning. With gas powered cars the boss takes 5 minutes a week to refill their own car.

I think issues like this are mostly short term. Facilities will improve. At some point I expect all the HK Tesla owners will get power at their parking space. Streets heavily used for parking will get some kind of outlet. The longer term need for fast charging is really long journeys.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on April 03, 2018, 06:32:59 pm
By that time it will be financially far more efficient to dump the car in the scrap yard and buy a new one than to replace the battery, which will probably cost a sizable portion of a whole new car!
They are actually servicable with exchange of single cells based on wear and all that. There is surprisingly little information about cars which needed new batteries in the wild.

Quote
If electric car popularity jumps by an order of magnitude in the next 10 years that will seriously raise the price of a lot of other things.
Some mines are about the be reopened because it suddenly became economically viable again to operate them. That might slow down an upward spiral.

Quote
Recycling of the batteries is lagging behind too.
With increasing price recycling becomes a business too. In general i wouldn´t panic because of such predictions as such systems tend to self moderate over time.  Materials that stay in solid form can and will be recycled when it is necessary. I wouldn´t buy into - "it is dead, therefore it is worthless" claims but kind of see these as what they are.

Rather consider it a problem blowing oil irreversibly(*) into the atmosphere without the ability to produce new oil - or breathing that.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 03, 2018, 06:39:17 pm
a) In the world we live in an awful lot of people have to park in the street.
b) Long journeys or overnighting away from home.

Those aren't really the target market for electric cars. There are many millions of people who park in their driveway or garage, and the vast majority of their driving is commuting to work. The guys I know with electric cars are in two-car households with one conventional car and use the electric primarily for commuting to work. I hear loads of people in similar multi-car households getting hung up on the same issues that really are hardly relevant to them. Just because it's not a solution for everybody doesn't mean it's not a solution for a large number of people.

There are also other options, for example if you need to overnight somewhere or take a long trip once in a while, it's possible to rent a car, or ride share, or get a ride from a friend. Lots of people don't own any car at all and do one of these things whenever mass transit cannot meet their needs. For street parking it would be possible to install curbside charging stations but for the time being those people are probably better off with conventional cars. I just see so much of this "well it won't work for me therefore it's unsuitable for anybody" logic, it's ridiculous.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: richard.cs on April 07, 2018, 09:59:58 am
Those aren't really the target market for electric cars. There are many millions of people who park in their driveway or garage, and the vast majority of their driving is commuting to work. The guys I know with electric cars are in two-car households with one conventional car and use the electric primarily for commuting to work. I hear loads of people in similar multi-car households getting hung up on the same issues that really are hardly relevant to them. Just because it's not a solution for everybody doesn't mean it's not a solution for a large number of people.

This. Right now electric cars are suitable for a huge number of people, just not everyone, and people get too hung up on the everyone bit. My girlfriend is determined her next car will be electric, she primarily wants the convenience of overnight charging in her garage, environmental and cost benefits are a consideration but secondary. Her car essentially only does long  (> charge range) journeys when we go on holiday and when we do that we already (in a petrol car) stop for an hour or so in a few hundred miles, neither of us want to drive much further than that without a break. Other's might want to take it in turns to drive a thousand miles in one stretch* but they are not currently the target market and should probably buy a diesel BMW. Once she gets her EV we might use public chargers on occasion or use my car occasionally on a day when we might more conveniently have used hers, but that's outweighed by the many petrol station detours saved.

Electric cars are already good enough to be more "mainstream" than motorcycles.

*not in the UK though, you'd end up in the sea or back where you started
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 07, 2018, 10:30:52 am
Base on this:
https://pod-point.com/landing-pages/how-long-does-it-take-to-charge-an-electric-car

To drive from, say, Belfast to Malaga, approximately 1800 miles, would require...

Starting from a full overnight charge before hand.  Assuming motorway service stations can be found at all stages for fast charging and the car supports 22kW charge rate:

"80 miles of range per hour"  or  (1800 - 200 initial range) / 80 mph charge rate = 20 hours charging time.  PLUS the 31 hours actual driving time.  So 51 hours if done with drivers taking shifts.

Making it more realistic with 16 hour days, 8 hours sleeping, 2 drivers in shifts and an average speed, mostly motorway of 60mph and a 200 mile range.

3 hours = 180 miles + 2.25 hours charging = 5.25 hours per "stint", per 180 miles.
Swap drivers repeat.
3 stints per day, giving 15.75 hours, 9 hours driving, 6.75 hours charging, 540 miles travelled per day.
You will reach Malaga late on the 4th day.

In a petrol car the numbers are significantly different.
3 hours = 180miles + 0.25 hours refilling = 3.25 hours per stint, per 180 miles.
Swap drivers repeat.
5 stints per day, giving 16.25, 15 hours driving, 1.25 hours refilling, 900 miles.
You would reach Malaga end of the second day.

This does not account for the petrol car having as much as 400 mile range, although the driver shifts of 3 hours seems fair.

Not to mention how much you will shorten the battery life of the car rapidly charging it from nearly flat to full 8-12 times each way.

I don't know how much rapid chargers cost to use, presumably it's cheaper than petrol still, but for the electric you have the added cost of an extra 2 over nights in B&Bs at 100+ Euro a night for 2 sharing.

Any mistakes in the petrol car and you call a recovery service to bring you petrol.  Any mistakes in the electric and you need a tow truck.  You would be safer in a semi-hybrid like the BMW which has a generator to slow charge the battery if you get stuck.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 08, 2018, 09:34:08 am
Base on this:
https://pod-point.com/landing-pages/how-long-does-it-take-to-charge-an-electric-car

To drive from, say, Belfast to Malaga, approximately 1800 miles, would require...

(... something complicated with teams of drivers that took 4 days)

Why didn't they just rent a gasoline car instead of all that?

and, (b) The more mainstream they become, the more charging stations, etc.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 08, 2018, 11:00:07 am
Why didn't they just rent a gasoline car instead of all that?

and, (b) The more mainstream they become, the more charging stations, etc.

Because a car, with cross Europe support, costs between £100 and £200 a day + mileage surcharges.

However, if we get to a stage were 90% of commuters own electric cars and rent petrol cars for long trips the pricing of rentals might come down as demand rises.

To be honest, it would of course be cheaper to fly.  If you are not taking your own car, it limits the reason to take a car at all.  Then the debate becomes one of CO2 per passenger, per mile versus the car.

More charging stations won't help, the example assumes plenty are available.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 08, 2018, 02:49:12 pm
Because a car, with cross Europe support, costs between £100 and £200 a day + mileage surcharges.

If you're driving all the way across Europe instead of flying  then I don't think it's because you enjoy driving, you have a very good reason to be doing it. A reason that probably involves earning money, so...  :-//

and, (b) Of course there's pathological cases. The point is that most people don't drive that way.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on April 08, 2018, 04:11:50 pm
Mine's on order, and 30A / 240V outlet has been installed in the garage.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Galenbo on April 08, 2018, 08:42:38 pm
EDIT: On that later point.  I envision "pluggable" batteries.  Standardised packs the size of a suitcase that goes where the spare wheel would have.  Garages can sell these in a swap an empty for a full one in the same way we do gas cylinders.  This would go a long way to easy range anxiety.
Pluggable batteries are technically an easy task, but in opposition to total weight and distribution of mass.
The batteries are placed/distributed now in the most ideal location, making them removable with decent fast trays will surely change that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 08, 2018, 09:13:28 pm
Very few people go on 1800 mile road trips. I've done it myself but only 2 or 3 times in my entire life, if I had an electric car I'd rent, borrow or buy a fuel powered car for the occasion and still come out far ahead. That's one of those edge cases that doesn't really matter for more people. If you need to deal with an edge case that your electric car won't handle easily, you do the same thing millions of people with no car at all do.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 08, 2018, 09:21:22 pm
Because a car, with cross Europe support, costs between £100 and £200 a day + mileage surcharges.
If you're driving all the way across Europe instead of flying  then I don't think it's because you enjoy driving, you have a very good reason to be doing it. A reason that probably involves earning money, so...  :-//
Exactly. If you need to visit a couple of cities across Europe a car quickly becomes more viable than an airplane due to the flexibility (been there, done that). Ofcourse the current EVs are not an option due to limited range and charge time.

@James_s: people actually do exactly the opposite of what you are claiming: they buy cars which fullfill that edge case. The less space and/or the more taxes on ownership the more versatile the car must be. For example: if people have a caravan they buy a car which can pull a caravan even though they only pull the caravan 2 or 3 times per year.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 08, 2018, 10:09:24 pm
This discussion illustrates again why a plug-in "serial hybrid"  (like the Volt or others) makes perfect sense. They give you 30-50 miles of all electric range (which probably covers >90% peoples daily needs) plus the ability to do longer trips using gasoline and not worry about range or recharge time.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 08, 2018, 10:17:54 pm
Yes that's because many people are dumb, if they want to spend way more money to buy a car for an edge case that's their problem, it's their money. That's kind of my point though, people get hung up on largely irrelevant details and edge cases when there are perfectly sensible ways of working around them.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Galenbo on April 08, 2018, 10:33:52 pm
This discussion illustrates again why a plug-in "serial hybrid"  (like the Volt or others) makes perfect sense. They give you 30-50 miles of all electric range (which probably covers >90% peoples daily needs) plus the ability to do longer trips using gasoline and not worry about range or recharge time.

Ok, but here goes that the car will consume more nuclear because an unused gasoline engine has to be transported,
or will consume more gasoline because the unused batteries have to be transported.

Combined with higher/double manufacturing/recycling gasoline costs.

A genset on trailer for Tesla would be a better solution, if you could rent these and drop where you want.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 08, 2018, 10:50:15 pm
This discussion illustrates again why a plug-in "serial hybrid"  (like the Volt or others) makes perfect sense. They give you 30-50 miles of all electric range (which probably covers >90% peoples daily needs) plus the ability to do longer trips using gasoline and not worry about range or recharge time.

Ok, but here goes that the car will consume more nuclear because an unused gasoline engine has to be transported,
or will consume more gasoline because the unused batteries have to be transported.

Combined with higher/double manufacturing/recycling gasoline costs

That's not the way it works. In the case of the Volt at least, it is not a gasoline car + EV stuck together. The engine functions primarily as a genset to charge batteries/power the more efficient electric motor.  When the battery is fully drained, the fuel efficiency of the ICE is on par with the most efficient ICE only autos.

As far as nuclear - that depends.  In my case, my Volt charging is done almost exclusively with solar PV (my own) and Hydro (Columbia river hydro grid power).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Galenbo on April 08, 2018, 11:03:04 pm
Braking energy recycling and a better efficiency in very slow modus are indeed big advantages of the Bi-cars
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 08, 2018, 11:26:56 pm
I've been driving a Tesla Model S as my primary car since 2013 so I have a little experience with the issues. I went with an EV once the range got above 200 miles (320 km). Long drives might seem like an edge case to some but these are relatively frequent. While most people in the US drive less than 12 miles for their daily commute to work, the real issue for EV range is the longest monthly drive. It's quite common to have to do a lot of driving in a single day once a month or so.  When my kids were in school, they would sometimes have events that required at least an hour of driving, one way. Plenty of other things cause a need for a lot of driving. Total distance in a day of >100 miles is not at all uncommon.  So, that is what defines EV range requirements for consumers. This is why the first gen EVs with 70-80 mile range did not sell that well.

Sure, one could buy a hybrid like a Prius or a Volt though that's still depending on petrol. I personally wanted to cut that cord.

Now, unlike every other EV automaker, Telsa has built a fast DC charging network - SuperChargers. These are 90 to 120 KW units. There are over 1000 sites worldwide, almost 500 in the US. They are positioned on major motorways at about 2-3 hrs driving time apart (a lot closer in California and Florida). I can drive almost anywhere in the contiguous 48 states using the SC network. Recharging is fairly fast, less than an hour at the worst but you only need to charge enough to get to the next SC (the car will tell you when you can continue). Typically, you need to break for bathrooms/food/coffee/stretch every couple of hours anyway so it's not so bad. That 1800 mile trip is still longer in a Tesla than an ICE but it's not dramatically so.  The SC network is a strategic advantage that other automakers have yet to copy. The Tesla model 3 is currently outselling even the Toyota Prius Prime in the US. It may be an edge case but long distance travel is a factor in buying decisions in the US.

One of the things that isn't discussed very much about EVs is that they are much easier to manufacture. The head of the Korean auto workers union was recently quoted as saying something to the effect that EVs are evil. He sees jobs going away. I've seen numbers like 40% less labor to assemble an EV vs an ICE (and even bigger differential when you talk about true hybrids).

And, recently there have been some surprising reports about the amount of electricity needed to extract and refine a gallon of petrol (https://www.autoblog.com/2011/10/14/how-gas-cars-use-more-electricity-to-go-100-miles-than-evs-do/). There is an imputed watt-hours per mile cost for ICE vehicles than can exceed the watt-hours per mile consumption of a pure EV. One of the logical extensions of this is that the carbon footprint of ICE vehicles needs to factor in the CF of electricity generation for extraction/refining.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 08, 2018, 11:40:12 pm
Yes that's because many people are dumb, if they want to spend way more money to buy a car for an edge case that's their problem, it's their money. That's kind of my point though, people get hung up on largely irrelevant details and edge cases when there are perfectly sensible ways of working around them.
One car is always cheaper than two. Also take my caravan example again: most people will use it to go on a holiday so demand will be high during very specific periods if people are going to rent a car to tow a caravan. This means that the rental companies will have cars sitting on their lot which they only rent for a few weeks per year. As a consumer you'll pay for that one way or another. Ergo: your reasoning doesn't work on a larger scale.

@phil: now factor in how much electricity is needed to make the battery pack for an EV and how much gas&coalis being burned to make that electricity. In lots of countries they use way more efficient cars compared to the US and electricity production has a very large CO2 footprint. In those cases EVs don't reduce CO2 output but they just move the point of emission.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on April 09, 2018, 12:20:24 am
@phil: now factor in how much electricity is needed to make the battery pack for an EV and how much gas&coalis being burned to make that electricity. In lots of countries they use way more efficient cars compared to the US and electricity production has a very large CO2 footprint. In those cases EVs don't reduce CO2 output but they just move the point of emission.
Burning fossil fuel at power station is still around 2-4 times more efficient compared to ICE.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 09, 2018, 01:30:14 am
One car is always cheaper than two. Also take my caravan example again: most people will use it to go on a holiday so demand will be high during very specific periods if people are going to rent a car to tow a caravan. This means that the rental companies will have cars sitting on their lot which they only rent for a few weeks per year. As a consumer you'll pay for that one way or another. Ergo: your reasoning doesn't work on a larger scale.


Doesn't matter, almost every family I know has at least two cars, quite a few with kids of driving age have three cars, some have more. I can't be bothered to look up the numbers but last I heard there are more cars registered than there are licensed drivers in the US. That supports my anecdotal observation that most families have more than one car, so there are clearly millions and millions and millions of households that could easily get by with a pure EV in place of one of their conventional cars. Then there are many, many thousands of people who don't own any car at all, obviously that can't work right? Except that it does because they do it. The caravan/camper example is another edge case, I know a few people who have those and every one of them has a silly big truck to pull it with in addition to at least one regular car. Is it necessary? Well, not to me, if I wanted to take a trip with a trailer I'd either rent an RV or get a small trailer I could pull behind one of my cars but I prefer tent camping and that's beside the point anyway. There is a thriving RV rental industry though so clearly quite a few people have figured out that it's cheaper to rent one for one or two trips a year all the costs of owning, storing and maintaining their own. You're hung up on edge cases that simply don't apply to a majority of people. Clearly they apply to you, that's fine, but recognize that there are *millions* of people for whom it's simply a non issue.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 09, 2018, 08:19:50 am
Also take my caravan example again...

Owning/towing caravans is a pain in the ass. Much better to occasionally rent a motorhome than to own your own caravan and drive a gas guzzler all year round just so you can take it somewhere.

Plus: Somebody else maintains them, they don't take up any space and they'll be replaced regularly so you'll always have a recent model.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 09, 2018, 09:45:04 am
EDIT: On that later point.  I envision "pluggable" batteries.  Standardised packs the size of a suitcase that goes where the spare wheel would have.  Garages can sell these in a swap an empty for a full one in the same way we do gas cylinders.  This would go a long way to easy range anxiety.
Pluggable batteries are technically an easy task, but in opposition to total weight and distribution of mass.
The batteries are placed/distributed now in the most ideal location, making them removable with decent fast trays will surely change that.

My idea is not to make the entire battery pack pluggable.  Just a small reserve pack in the boot.  Something the size of carry on luggage, small suit case, weighing around 10Kg.  With enough juice to get your 30 miles or so, maybe.  A car could have two of them in the boot/trunk.  When the car switches over to using these you get the warning light.  When the first one goes dead, the warning light flashes. 

You can then swap these emergency reserve packs at a filling station to get you an extra few miles and maybe get you home.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 09:59:12 am
@phil: now factor in how much electricity is needed to make the battery pack for an EV and how much gas&coalis being burned to make that electricity. In lots of countries they use way more efficient cars compared to the US and electricity production has a very large CO2 footprint. In those cases EVs don't reduce CO2 output but they just move the point of emission.
Burning fossil fuel at power station is still around 2-4 times more efficient compared to ICE.
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on April 09, 2018, 10:59:30 am
Burning fossil fuel at power station is still around 2-4 times more efficient compared to ICE.
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.
Take into account that an ICEs efficiency is directly linked to the traffic or to the pedal. Those efficiency figures are measured under ideal conditions (cruising at steady speed and fixed load), which most often don´t apply. It still needs to work outside this band, which requires additional provisions, makes the whole emission regulation more difficult and the whole thing heavier as well. These numbers multiplied by the amount of cars in operation tells you something.

A power station runs under vastly differenct circumstances, it is designed to run in that mode constantly and maybe even unable to run outside it´s band.

EVs sidetrack those problems and are multifuel capable by converting it all to electrical power and then storing it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 11:31:47 am
Burning fossil fuel at power station is still around 2-4 times more efficient compared to ICE.
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.
Take into account that an ICEs efficiency is directly linked to the traffic or to the pedal. Those efficiency figures are measured under ideal conditions (cruising at steady speed and fixed load), which most often don´t apply. It still needs to work outside this band, which requires additional provisions, makes the whole emission regulation more difficult and the whole thing heavier as well.
Wrong. The EPA tests cars under real driving circumstances so you can simply check the numbers yourself. Engines with a turbo have a very large RPM range in which they are efficient and they don't have to be slow either. Look at Ford's 1.0 ecoboost engine for example which can produce 93kW over a very wide RPM range. Cars fitted with this type of engine produce less CO2 than comparable diesels and are on the heels of hybrid vehicles. And there is more to come when the EU starts to use better test methods for cars.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 09, 2018, 11:56:56 am
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.

Lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2 WLTP. Latest leaf does 40/270 kwh/km WLTP, latest coal plants have 46+% efficiency, lets do 10% transmission/conversion losses, 340 grams of CO2 per kwh total energy for coal. So 40/270*340*1/(0.46*0.9) is 121+. Pretty much the same ignoring CO2 expenditure for mining/refining.

Can't find WLTP numbers for a Ford Fiesta Ecoboost, but another index promising realistic tests http://equaindex.com (http://equaindex.com) gives numbers in the same ballpark.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 12:10:07 pm
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.

Lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2 WLTP. Latest leaf does 40/270 kwh/km WLTP, latest coal plants have 46+% efficiency, lets do 10% transmission/conversion losses, 340 grams of CO2 per kwh total energy for coal. So 40/270*340*1/(0.46*0.9) is 121+. Pretty much the same ignoring CO2 expenditure for mining/refining.
You are forgetting that (at least) 5% of the fuel is bio-fuel.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 09, 2018, 12:24:33 pm
Nuclear, renewable or even gas can take the CO2 production down too. I'm just doing ballpark figures.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 09, 2018, 12:26:43 pm
You are forgetting that (at least) 5% of the fuel is bio-fuel.
You say that like its more ecologically friendly than the rest of the fuel.  ;)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: tszaboo on April 09, 2018, 12:39:30 pm
You are forgetting that (at least) 5% of the fuel is bio-fuel.
You say that like its more ecologically friendly than the rest of the fuel.  ;)
Yeah, I mean, involving the 3 largest polluter industry must reduce the pollution in the first largest industry, right? That is how math works. Also, it is good for us, that farmers are producing now stuff, only to make bioethanol, instead of using the waste as it was planned. (BTW good farmers know, there is no such thing as waste in farming, only you just dont know how to use it).
No. Not when compared to a fuel efficient ICE. And then there are distribution and conversion losses which make the EV lose big time. I've posted the calculations before.

Lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2 WLTP. Latest leaf does 40/270 kwh/km WLTP, latest coal plants have 46+% efficiency, lets do 10% transmission/conversion losses, 340 grams of CO2 per kwh total energy for coal. So 40/270*340*1/(0.46*0.9) is 121+. Pretty much the same ignoring CO2 expenditure for mining/refining.

Can't find WLTP numbers for a Ford Fiesta Ecoboost, but another index promising realistic tests http://equaindex.com (http://equaindex.com) gives numbers in the same ballpark.
Nobody is suggesting that coal powered electric cars are good. You can generate electricity from renewable sources, with almost 0 CO2. You can only generate diesel from dead dinosaurs, and those are not renewable.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: richard.cs on April 09, 2018, 12:48:27 pm
So an EV is on par in CO2 emissions with a modern diesel if all the electricity generation is from coal. The UK average for 2017 was 292 g/kWh which is around a 14% improvement on that, a bit worse than I expected but that's what the data says. What this ignores however are the expected future trends in generation mix (more solar and wind are being built right now and lots of coal plants are scheduled to close within the next decade), and also the air quality benefits (NOx, particulates, etc.) of concentrating emissions in a few stationary (and therefore not weight limited) locations where it's more cost effective to deal with than millions of tail pipes in city centres.

In Europe much of the push for electric vehicles is driven from the latter consideration, air quality in a lot of cities is poor.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on April 09, 2018, 01:03:44 pm
You can only generate diesel from dead dinosaurs, and those are not renewable.
I'm not a fan of diesel, but you certainly can generate diesel from renewable stuff. Search for biodiesel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 09, 2018, 01:26:24 pm
You can only generate diesel from dead dinosaurs, and those are not renewable.
I'm not a fan of diesel, but you certainly can generate diesel from renewable stuff. Search for biodiesel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel)
Try looking for analyses of how many litres of dead dinosaur are used to make each litre of biodiesel.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 01:43:15 pm
You can only generate diesel from dead dinosaurs, and those are not renewable.
I'm not a fan of diesel, but you certainly can generate diesel from renewable stuff. Search for biodiesel.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biodiesel)
Try looking for analyses of how many litres of dead dinosaur are used to make each litre of biodiesel.
The same goes for solar panels. Then again there is also bio-ethanol which can be used in any (relatively) modern petrol engine.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 09, 2018, 02:27:38 pm
... and how many dead dinosaurs go into making an EV?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on April 09, 2018, 02:59:37 pm
Then again there is also bio-ethanol which can be used in any (relatively) modern petrol engine.
Which drives the food prices up. You need to grow somewhere the crops required for it's production.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 05:22:36 pm
Then again there is also bio-ethanol which can be used in any (relatively) modern petrol engine.
Which drives the food prices up. You need to grow somewhere the crops required for it's production.
Wrong. New processes (3rd generation bio fuels) use leftovers so bio-fuel drives the food price down because more of the plants is used. Google Poet-DSM . The best thing is that there is a crap load of agricultural leftovers which could supply a significant amount of fuel.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on April 09, 2018, 05:53:53 pm
Then again there is also bio-ethanol which can be used in any (relatively) modern petrol engine.
Which drives the food prices up. You need to grow somewhere the crops required for it's production.
Wrong. New processes (3rd generation bio fuels) use leftovers so bio-fuel drives the food price down because more of the plants is used. Google Poet-DSM . The best thing is that there is a crap load of agricultural leftovers which could supply a significant amount of fuel.
It's just non commercialized research so far.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 06:27:18 pm
They got the first factory up & running with tens of millions invested. That isn't research but commercial operation. Over the past few years the amount of ethanol exported by the US has been increasing steadily so there is a growing market.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on April 09, 2018, 06:50:09 pm
Wrong. The EPA tests cars under real driving circumstances so you can simply check the numbers yourself. Engines with a turbo have a very large RPM range in which they are efficient and they don't have to be slow either. Look at Ford's 1.0 ecoboost engine for example which can produce 93kW over a very wide RPM range. Cars fitted with this type of engine produce less CO2 than comparable diesels and are on the heels of hybrid vehicles. And there is more to come when the EU starts to use better test methods for cars.
We are not talking EPA/NEDC/WLTP/RDE, we are talking BSFC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brake_specific_fuel_consumption). Whatever number you want to use, it can not exceed that, except for parking.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 07:39:37 pm
Wrong. The EPA tests cars under real driving circumstances so you can simply check the numbers yourself. Engines with a turbo have a very large RPM range in which they are efficient and they don't have to be slow either. Look at Ford's 1.0 ecoboost engine for example which can produce 93kW over a very wide RPM range. Cars fitted with this type of engine produce less CO2 than comparable diesels and are on the heels of hybrid vehicles. And there is more to come when the EU starts to use better test methods for cars.
We are not talking EPA/NEDC/WLTP/RDE, we are talking BSFC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brake_specific_fuel_consumption). Whatever number you want to use, it can not exceed that, except for parking.
If BSFC provided a good number for cars then it would be used for car testing. But it is not so it is not relevant in this discussion. BSFC is about engine efficiency and not CO2 emission of the entire car so the BSFC number is not painting the entire picture. You can put a less efficient engine in a car and still have lower CO2 emissions compared to a similar car with a (on paper) more efficient engine. IOW: you need a test which tests the car as it is in realistic driving circumstances which include the influence of aerodynamics, gearbox ratios, etc, etc.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on April 09, 2018, 08:02:54 pm
Not when comparing against a power station, which was what caused your statement.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 09, 2018, 08:22:53 pm
Not when comparing against a power station, which was what caused your statement.
Also doesn't matter. CO2 emission is what counts. The CO2 emissions are publicly available for both electricity generation and how much is output by an ICE based car so you can very easely calculate how much grams of CO2 takes you from A to B. There really is no reason to make it any more complicated than that. Don't forget that CO2 emissions include all the losses so they offer a really good comparison of various ways of transportation.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: tszaboo on April 09, 2018, 08:58:43 pm
Not when comparing against a power station, which was what caused your statement.
Also doesn't matter. CO2 emission is what counts. The CO2 emissions are publicly available for both electricity generation and how much is output by an ICE based car so you can very easely calculate how much grams of CO2 takes you from A to B. There really is no reason to make it any more complicated than that. Don't forget that CO2 emissions include all the losses so they offer a really good comparison of various ways of transportation.
CO2 is not everything. In fact, you dont get cancer and die 25 years early because of CO2.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 10, 2018, 01:15:55 am
@phil: now factor in how much electricity is needed to make the battery pack for an EV and how much gas&coalis being burned to make that electricity. In lots of countries they use way more efficient cars compared to the US and electricity production has a very large CO2 footprint. In those cases EVs don't reduce CO2 output but they just move the point of emission.
This is oft repeated but based on old data (NiCad manufacturing energy costs from 1990s and ignored battery recycling). The reality is that even using coal fired electricity, there is a break-even point where the EV even with the battery manufacturing factored in is "greener" than a similar sized ICE.  For my power company, it's pretty quick - 32K miles which I have surpassed. Also, that break-even analysis did NOT include the carbon cost of generating the electricity needed to extract, refine and distribute the gasoline the ICE used. So, it's likely that the real break even point for an EV is much sooner. I'm looking for the article that discusses this but am coming up blank.  Here's one that addresses the issue but not the one I'm thinking of. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2016/04/22/the-carbon-footprint-of-tesla-manufacturing/#4a6d1b7a6096) Will keep looking.

Also, consider this - an ICE vehicle will never be more green than the day it is delivered. An EV will never be less green than the day it's delivered (because improvements in the efficiency generating electricity are on-going and wind turbines are coming on line at an accelerating rate). This assumes both vehicles are properly maintained.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 10, 2018, 01:06:26 pm
Also doesn't matter. CO2 emission is what counts. The CO2 emissions are publicly available for both electricity generation and how much is output by an ICE based car so you can very easely calculate how much grams of CO2 takes you from A to B.

For a significant increase in electric cars, the electricity will be delivered by new generation ... we will need more capacity. Basing their CO2 production on the existing generating mix is as useful as taking the average of the existing diesel/petrol car park to judge their CO2 production. That's why I took the numbers for a recently built (but in production) coal generating plant.

PS. I think CO2 impact on increasing temperatures and rising sea levels is way overhyped and electric cars are impractical except as a second car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 10, 2018, 01:40:46 pm
Also, consider this - an ICE vehicle will never be more green than the day it is delivered. An EV will never be less green than the day it's delivered (because improvements in the efficiency generating electricity are on-going and wind turbines are coming on line at an accelerating rate). This assumes both vehicles are properly maintained.
Now you are assuming that ICE cars will always run on pure fossil fuel. The reality is that every modern petrol car can run on ethanol (which also burns cleaner compared to fossil fuel). It is hard to predict right now but it is possible that bio-fuels will become common sooner than batteries which give EVs a useful range and short charging times.

However the hard fact is that ICE cars allow a gradual transition towards renewable energy without a large investment in the car and infrastructure. That transition is already ongoing. I always fill our cars with the fuel blend which has the most ethanol. If you buy an EV you are stuck to charging from day one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 10, 2018, 02:57:08 pm
Define 'burns cleaner'. Ethanol has a lower energy density, releases the same amounts of CO2 per unit energy produced and can cause some issues on vehicles not designed for it (https://www.girardgibbs.com/docs/cases/67_ducati-class-notice.PDF).

Also, unless that ethanol came from second-generation sources, it takes away from arable crops. I don't know what the situation is in NL, but in the US this is only sustainable due to the efforts of the corn lobby.

Finally, at least two members of this forum had just posted that we already drive EVs with a net zero carbon footprint due to home solar installations. No need to do any future projections, we're already at 100% renewable transportation even without large scale infrastructure changes. I would expect that especially in NL, with an existing and growing renewable energy grid supply, this would be easier to achieve (for ex. with a smaller solar installation).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 10, 2018, 03:15:47 pm
Solar is only viable for the happy few with a large enough roof. In the NL that is rare. Also I'd need to buy an EV but then again on my (average) roof I can only generate half of my annual electricity usage. All in all solar panels on roofs are a pipe dream which is not going to happen on a large enough scale any time soon.

Ofcourse like solar and wind bio-fuels need lots of subsidies as well to develop the technology and create a market.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 10, 2018, 03:28:57 pm
Solar is only viable for the happy few with a large enough roof. In the NL that is rare. Also I'd need to buy an EV but then again on my (average) roof I can only generate half of my annual electricity usage.
Ofcourse like solar and wind bio-fuels need lots of subsidies as well to develop the technology and create a market.
You also need storage, since on weekdays most people can only have their car at home for charging when its dark.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gertux on April 10, 2018, 04:07:48 pm
Solar is only viable for the happy few with a large enough roof. In the NL that is rare. Also I'd need to buy an EV but then again on my (average) roof I can only generate half of my annual electricity usage. All in all solar panels on roofs are a pipe dream which is not going to happen on a large enough scale any time soon.

Ofcourse like solar and wind bio-fuels need lots of subsidies as well to develop the technology and create a market.
I’ve got solar panels on half the roof and it generates enough to cover my family’s anual electricity usage, installed 12 years ago, investment broke even 4 years ago. We live in Belgium, so we have about the same shitty weather as Holland ;-)

My next car will be an EV and at that time we’ll increase the solar capacity, we’ve got another half of the roof available. We only have 1 car because we live near our jobs, 11km which are covered by bike 90% of the time. The children go to school and university by train, 10 and 15 minutes ride.

An EV that has an automy of 200km covers all our use cases : commutes to clients not in Brussels, visits to my wifes family ;-( 35km and short trips.

On holidays we don’t bring our house (sleurhut), we rent.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 10, 2018, 04:18:51 pm
Large-scale solar on roofs is a pipe dream? Southern California (where they produce *too much* power (https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-07-20/california-s-electrical-grid-can-t-handle-all-solar-energy-state-producing) at some times of the year) would beg to differ. Local storage is not really necessary for grid-tie installations, but would be nice (that's going to be my next project). Grid-level storage would solve California-style problems, among other things (ref: Tesla's Hornsdale battery).

One of the approaches my city takes for people who can't afford PV (either cash or roof space) is community solar. There are two pilot projects currently in operation. For what it's worth, the inspector from my city/power company was quite positive about our solar install, and said it he wished more folks would do the same. I'm speculating, but I expect the extra cost of monitoring and balancing a local grid with local PV production is less than the expense to buy short-term power from the regional grid.

You also need storage, since on weekdays most people can only have their car at home for charging when its dark.
I'm sure I don't represent most people, but I leave home at ~8:30 AM. Since ~March, I have about 1.5-2 hours of sunshine by this time each day. I set up by Bolt EV to charge so that it is ready by 8:30 AM, so it pulls power only in the mornings. I can verify from the solar system monitor that about half the time, my car charges solely from my PV system. It helps that my panels are east-facing (I don't have a south-facing roof). On average, my net usage is negative, even including the EV.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 10, 2018, 04:50:24 pm
Large-scale solar on roofs is a pipe dream? Southern California (where they produce *too much* power (https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-07-20/california-s-electrical-grid-can-t-handle-all-solar-energy-state-producing) at some times of the year) would beg to differ.
The article title says the grid can't handle it. That is another (universal) problem and also the main reason you will need local storage which ruins the economy of solar panels.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 10, 2018, 05:06:23 pm
Large-scale solar on roofs is a pipe dream? Southern California (where they produce *too much* power (https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-07-20/california-s-electrical-grid-can-t-handle-all-solar-energy-state-producing) at some times of the year) would beg to differ.
The article title says the grid can't handle it. That is another (universal) problem and also the main reason you will need local storage which ruins the economy of solar panels.
The main problem here is the current grid design. It can't handle power going upstream through sub-stations, so you end up with islands that are trying to produce more than they consume. This is not a fundamental problem, though. It simply reflects the requirements which were in place when then current grid was developed. It can be fixed as the sub-stations are maintained.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on April 10, 2018, 05:24:05 pm
Quote
The main problem here is the current grid design. It can't handle power going upstream through sub-stations,
say what ?
that's not the case.
Power can and will flow in both directions.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 10, 2018, 05:33:06 pm
Large-scale solar on roofs is a pipe dream? Southern California (where they produce *too much* power (https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-07-20/california-s-electrical-grid-can-t-handle-all-solar-energy-state-producing) at some times of the year) would beg to differ.
The article title says the grid can't handle it. That is another (universal) problem and also the main reason you will need local storage which ruins the economy of solar panels.
The main problem here is the current grid design. It can't handle power going upstream through sub-stations, so you end up with islands that are trying to produce more than they consume. This is not a fundamental problem, though. It simply reflects the requirements which were in place when then current grid was developed. It can be fixed as the sub-stations are maintained.
It is not just the sub stations but also the wiring in the streets. One way or another (local storage or upgrading) it is going to be expensive and a reason why putting solar panels on roofs on a large scale isn't very economic.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 10, 2018, 05:35:13 pm
Quote
The main problem here is the current grid design. It can't handle power going upstream through sub-stations,
say what ?
that's not the case.
Power can and will flow in both directions.
Of course it can flow both ways, but all the control and protection mechanisms are designed on the expectation of a one way flow.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: dr.diesel on April 10, 2018, 05:36:07 pm
Quote
The main problem here is the current grid design. It can't handle power going upstream through sub-stations,
say what ?
that's not the case.
Power can and will flow in both directions.

Substations with old gen voltage regulation would likely cause issues.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 10, 2018, 07:36:05 pm
Solar is only viable for the happy few with a large enough roof. In the NL that is rare. Also I'd need to buy an EV but then again on my (average) roof I can only generate half of my annual electricity usage. All in all solar panels on roofs are a pipe dream which is not going to happen on a large enough scale any time soon.

Ofcourse like solar and wind bio-fuels need lots of subsidies as well to develop the technology and create a market.

Wind is on track to become cheaper than fossil fuels. Subsidies should be going away.  One article here. (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/keep-subsidizing-wind-will-cost-wind-energy-go)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 10, 2018, 07:46:19 pm
Solar in the UK, especially were I am in Northern Ireland is a bit pointless.   For half the year it's just fecking dark.  The other half of the year it's still fecking dark with overcast cloud and rain.  But... it's ALWAYS feck'in windy!

If they can master "miserably pissing it down" power it will be best bet.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 10, 2018, 08:12:51 pm
Wind is on track to become cheaper than fossil fuels. Subsidies should be going away.  One article here. (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/keep-subsidizing-wind-will-cost-wind-energy-go)

That's nice, but you need the fossil fuel plants any way ... it has to be cheaper than fuel cost for a fossil fuel plant if it's going to supply a significant percentage of the power without subsidy. Has a way to go before that happens.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 10, 2018, 09:06:09 pm
Wind is on track to become cheaper than fossil fuels. Subsidies should be going away.  One article here. (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/keep-subsidizing-wind-will-cost-wind-energy-go)
That's nice, but you need the fossil fuel plants any way ... it has to be cheaper than fuel cost for a fossil fuel plant if it's going to supply a significant percentage of the power without subsidy. Has a way to go before that happens.
True but recently some contracts got signed to built a  large wind farm in the Dutch part of the North sea which doesn't need to be subsidized. Well, allmost. The Dutch government is going to put the power grid in place and did all the research (depth, soil stability, etc) and gave that away so the contractors don't have to do the research for themselves before making a bid.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SparkyFX on April 10, 2018, 10:46:32 pm
If they can master "miserably pissing it down" power it will be best bet.
It´s called hydroelectric generator :-)
In the big scale of things, even wind and hydro are solar :-).

Quote
It is not just the sub stations but also the wiring in the streets. One way or another (local storage or upgrading) it is going to be expensive and a reason why putting solar panels on roofs on a large scale isn't very economic.
The wiring in the streets is dimensioned for the power that the home´s distribution box is dimensioned for and i talk about the fuses or breakers. So as long as you are not running extreme loads all concurrently there usually is a lot of unused margin included. To estimate the ballpark check which value the main breaker/fuse the home has.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 11, 2018, 12:13:57 am
Wind is on track to become cheaper than fossil fuels. Subsidies should be going away.  One article here. (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/keep-subsidizing-wind-will-cost-wind-energy-go)

That's nice, but you need the fossil fuel plants any way ... it has to be cheaper than fuel cost for a fossil fuel plant if it's going to supply a significant percentage of the power without subsidy. Has a way to go before that happens.

Did you read the article?  It's on track to do just that. Also, there is a lot of active research on storage. Until storage is mainstream there will be a need for generators, probably carbon fuel based, as backup. But the more power generation we can shift to solar or wind, the better. Interestingly, some places have deliberately chosen to pay higher energy costs to ensure green energy generation. Germany and California are two major examples.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 11, 2018, 12:37:33 am
Fuel cost for a coal plant is currently 2.5 cents US$ (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_04.html) (newer plants probably less). So as I said, ways to go.

I suspect PV will be there quicker. Has to come from further, but I think there is just more room to drive it down.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 11, 2018, 12:46:04 am
Certainly fossil fuel plants are not going away any time soon, but it's very possible that the cost will rise substantially at some point, certainly the current glut of natural gas cannot last forever. Best to be prepared with alternate technologies ahead of time rather than get caught with our pants down when another energy crisis occurs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 11, 2018, 03:56:32 am
Fuel cost for a coal plant is currently 2.5 cents US$ (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_04.html) (newer plants probably less). So as I said, ways to go.

I suspect PV will be there quicker. Has to come from further, but I think there is just more room to drive it down.
Fuel cost is just a part of the cost.  "Fuel" cost for wind power is 0 but I hope you would agree it ain't free.  Life time cost of generation is a far better metric (called LCOE for levelized cost of electricty). Wikipedia has a decent section on generation costs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#United_States) (which are general given in $/MWHr).

You will see in the chart that geothermal generation is the cheapest. Onshore wind is the second cheapest.  Most expensive?  Coal. and it's not close. Also, you should note the steep drop of wind power costs in the historical summary of projections.  And finally, it appears that the industry expects combined cycle NG and wind power to be almost exactly the same LCOE cost by 2022.

So, wind with CCNG looks like a real winner. At least for the US which has plentiful supplies of NG.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 11, 2018, 05:33:57 am
Fuel cost for a coal plant is currently 2.5 cents US$ (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_08_04.html) (newer plants probably less). So as I said, ways to go.

So.... what's the "fuel cost" for wind and solar?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 11, 2018, 05:42:24 am
Large-scale solar on roofs is a pipe dream? Southern California (where they produce *too much* power (https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-07-20/california-s-electrical-grid-can-t-handle-all-solar-energy-state-producing) at some times of the year) would beg to differ.
The article title says the grid can't handle it. That is another (universal) problem and also the main reason you will need local storage which ruins the economy of solar panels.
There you go again. Take one edge case, state that it doesn't work (including words like 'universal problem' - citation needed, btw), and therefore the general idea is bad/wrong/impractical. Your premise that rooftop solar on a large scale is fictional isn't true - there are plenty of examples of large scale deployments, and I linked to one. Sure, they might make too much power a couple of days a year, but so what? Doesn't mean they don't exist.

You will see in the chart that geothermal generation is the cheapest. Onshore wind is the second cheapest.  Most expensive?  Coal. and it's not close. Also, you should note the steep drop of wind power costs in the historical summary of projections.  And finally, it appears that the industry expects combined cycle NG and wind power to be almost exactly the same LCOE cost by 2022.
The coal costs include sequestration. LCOE for solar PV would depend on geographical location, since energy production is in the denominator. I'm assuming the DoE numbers were averaged over the entire US. This would mean the south west would have a lower regional LCOE than average. This paper (https://qspace.library.queensu.ca/handle/1974/6879) includes a table of LCOE vs install location, and seems to show lower costs for AZ and NV.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 11, 2018, 06:05:45 am
It will be intesting to see if Tesla and Toyota can break the laws of physics.

https://youtu.be/k6GeHnMwl1c
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 11, 2018, 07:51:25 am
It will be intesting to see if Tesla and Toyota can break the laws of physics.

You mean all those cars out there are breaking laws of physics? Wow! Tesla is even smarter then I thought.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on April 11, 2018, 08:18:59 am
Let's break the law of physics with electric cars.
Cool.

On another note:
well to wheel chain efficiency of fossils in a conventional ICE is close to 11%, very low.
The same well to wheel chain efficiency with an electric powertrain and an oil burning electric station is in the range of 27%. (Of course, using partly renewables, this improves a lot already today, and will go up in the future)

Why is that ? because ICE in cars run at a very low average efficiency because they are subject to a non-optimal ever changing load.
A turbine generator in an electric station on the other end is always running at peak efficiency. It's also more efficient due to it's bigger power rating, and non space constraints.

So yeah. We don't need to brake the law of physics to make cars better. Thermodynamics are already on our side :)
Economics have leveled of between ICE and BEV already.

Also, Cadogan is just full of BS on this one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 11, 2018, 08:48:31 am
Also, Cadogan is just full of BS on this one.

Care to explain why you say Cadogan is full of BS on this one?

He explains the physics and the math for his BS, can you point out where hs is wrong or full of BS?
Or are you a Tesla Cult follower?

https://youtu.be/LlvYv1SJJEY


https://youtu.be/k6GeHnMwl1c

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 11, 2018, 08:53:40 am
well to wheel chain efficiency of fossils in a conventional ICE is close to 11%, very low.
The same well to wheel chain efficiency with an electric powertrain and an oil burning electric station is in the range of 27%. (Of course, using partly renewables, this improves a lot already today, and will go up in the future)

I expect there is some cherry picking going on there.  Say taking an American V8 gas guzzler as the example of the ICE and a bleeding edge, completely impractical new tech EV for the EV sample.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 11, 2018, 11:13:39 am
Ever done the calculation to see home much gas a V8 with dual quad cabarators consumes with the pedal to the metal?  1 gallon every 42 seconds.

When crude oill was first being refined over 100 years ago there was no use for gasoline so it was just poured into local streams by the barrel.

The car industry just over 100 years ago was in a 3 way race to see what kind of technology customers would buy.  Would it be electric, ICE or ECE?
Women liked electric,  Quite, no fumes.  Electric cars and truck had the same limitation then as they due today, limited range due to battery technology. 

ECE or External combustion engines lost out.  In order to take a drive, the driver would have to start the fire to generate the steam about 30 minutes before wanting to leave.

ICE is what consumers wanted and what one out.  Gas is energy dense.  One could drive several hundred miles on a tank of gas about the size of a suitcase.  And refueling was easy.  Just a quick trip to the local drug store to get another tank of that very inexpensive gasoline.  And remember after World War II less than half of the homes in America had electricty.

The problems electric cars had 100 years ago are the same ones we are experiencing today.  Or in 100 years of technological advances the same laws of physics still apply.

Now before folks start bashing me, I own an electric hybrid plugin car and am very pleased.  I will never buy another gasoline only powered car again.

The Tesla engineers are even buying electric hybrid plugin cars instead of the cars they are designing.  Why?  Lake Tahoe is about 20 miles beyond the range of a Tesla.  Only way they can get there is to get a charge along the way,  And I’ve seen 14 cars lined up waiting for a charge or use a electric hybrid plugin.  One of the last major snow storms in Tahoe knocked out power for 4 days,  Everyone who had an electric car was left stranded.

When will electric cars become mainstream?  When the laws do physics and thermodynamics change.

Electric cars are great.  But they sure have limitations,   
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 11, 2018, 01:29:40 pm
It gets confusing when you 'merkins keep calling it gas, when we have cars that actually run on gas, like Liquid Petroleum gas (LPG), Hydrogen gas, methane/natural gas etc.

Petroleum or Petrol makes it quite a bit clearer.

On efficient engines.  They don't have to be super slow and boring.  My car on the "highway" can get 42mpg (British gallon), but on a race track I averaged 5.4 mpg.  So that was about one gallon every 3 laps, or 1 gallon ever 5 minutes.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 11, 2018, 01:41:31 pm
Fuel cost is just a part of the cost.

The fossil fuel plants are present any way, wind and solar just save fuel. For the moment there is distortion because of subsidies and special value signaling contracts, but on a large scale without subsidy fuel cost is the relevant cost for break even. As for gas, it's much harder to stockpile than coal. A coal based backup is more robust.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 11, 2018, 01:52:35 pm
When will electric cars become mainstream?  When the laws do physics and thermodynamics change.

Batteries have a long way to go yet. There are batteries in laboratories with nearly three times the energy density of gasoline:

https://phys.org/news/2013-09-molten-air-battery-storage-capacity-highest.html

Electric cars are great.  But they sure have limitations,   

Today's electric cars are great.  But today's electric cars sure have limitations.

FTFY.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 11, 2018, 02:53:47 pm
https://phys.org/news/2013-09-molten-air-battery-storage-capacity-highest.html

Seems way too complex to me, air such a nasty poisonous medium to work with ... I don't see high cycle counts in the future of these batteries.

Mechanically recharging Zinc-Air seems more promising to me, not quite the energy density of Aluminum but Zinc-oxide is easier to reduce back to Zinc. With large batch processing purifying the Zinc is easy, so all the contaminants from the air won't pile up like in a rechargeable air battery.

PS. on second thought, maybe hybrids would make most sense ... replacing the anodes and electrolyte every 100 cycles or so.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 11, 2018, 07:10:24 pm
When will electric cars become mainstream?  When the laws do physics and thermodynamics change.

Batteries have a long way to go yet. There are batteries in laboratories with nearly three times the energy density of gasoline:

https://phys.org/news/2013-09-molten-air-battery-storage-capacity-highest.html

Electric cars are great.  But they sure have limitations,   

Today's electric cars are great.  But today's electric cars sure have limitations.

FTFY.

Compare the energy density to that of Nuclear fuel.  Not even close. 

The world will have another 2 billion people, batteries are just a storage medium, where's the energy going to come for to charge the battereis?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 11, 2018, 07:41:09 pm
The world will have another 2 billion people, batteries are just a storage medium, where's the energy going to come for to charge the battereis?

The US has more than enough deserts for PV to supply it's energy needs. Europe not so much of course. For HVDC the world is a small place ... but the geopolitical implications of dependency are annoying, as they are now with our dependence on Russia.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 11, 2018, 10:25:22 pm
The Tesla engineers are even buying electric hybrid plugin cars instead of the cars they are designing.  Why?  Lake Tahoe is about 20 miles beyond the range of a Tesla.  Only way they can get there is to get a charge along the way,  And I’ve seen 14 cars lined up waiting for a charge or use a electric hybrid plugin.  One of the last major snow storms in Tahoe knocked out power for 4 days,  Everyone who had an electric car was left stranded.

Way to use anecdotes to prove a point. Yes, Tahoe is farther than the range of any Tesla on a single charge. Note on the supercharger map that there are SCs along the way. In fact, they were put there specifically to make Tahoe easily reachable from the Bay Area.  So, these "tesla engineers" aren't using teslas because they might have to charge en route? Yeah, that sounds plausible.  And  how many times a year does a major storm broadly knock out power for 4 days?  And also not cripple everything else?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 11, 2018, 10:35:34 pm
The world will have another 2 billion people, batteries are just a storage medium, where's the energy going to come for to charge the battereis?

The US has more than enough deserts for PV to supply it's energy needs. Europe not so much of course. For HVDC the world is a small place ... but the geopolitical implications of dependency are annoying, as they are now with our dependence on Russia.
Out of curiosity, how much area do all the rooftops in Europe take up? How much area for the parking lots?  I read that in rough numbers, 1 hectare of solar panels can generate 1 MW at peak.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on April 12, 2018, 06:48:21 am
Got the VIN number of my new electric car today, it's getting real. 
Now it just needs to be shipped from Halifax to Vancouver.  Apparently it'll be ready for pick up in 4 weeks or so ! WOOOOT
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 12, 2018, 10:03:02 am
The Tesla engineers are even buying electric hybrid plugin cars instead of the cars they are designing.  Why?  Lake Tahoe is about 20 miles beyond the range of a Tesla.  Only way they can get there is to get a charge along the way,  And I’ve seen 14 cars lined up waiting for a charge or use a electric hybrid plugin.  One of the last major snow storms in Tahoe knocked out power for 4 days,  Everyone who had an electric car was left stranded.

Way to use anecdotes to prove a point. Yes, Tahoe is farther than the range of any Tesla on a single charge. Note on the supercharger map that there are SCs along the way. In fact, they were put there specifically to make Tahoe easily reachable from the Bay Area.  So, these "tesla engineers" aren't using teslas because they might have to charge en route? Yeah, that sounds plausible.  And  how many times a year does a major storm broadly knock out power for 4 days?  And also not cripple everything else?

How many cars can a super charger charge at a given time?  If fourteen cars are all lined up to be charge how long does the person in the fourteenth car have to wait to get a charge?  And super chargers don’t give you a full charge so even when they get a charge their mileage is limited.
.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 12, 2018, 05:57:16 pm
Out of curiosity, how much area do all the rooftops in Europe take up? How much area for the parking lots?
Not enough. Parking lots are also rare. Usually parking garages are underground or at least multi-story buildings with a small footprint. Land is really scarse especially in the west part of Europe where most of the industry is.

As written before: solar panels need storage and infrastructure to carry the electricity to the place where it is needed. During the day electricity is in demand by heavy industry. Try to bring a feed from a residential area with solar panels towards a steel mill... Together with storage it will be terribly expensive. If you have 1000 households and a sunny day the electricity grid for that area will need to be able to handle the situation where everyone turns the washing machine and vacuum cleaner on at the same time. Local grids are not designed for such situations because they never occured before. And they are designed that way to reduce costs. Putting solar panels on roofs in residential areas is a pipe dream. It is way too expensive if you add everything up because you can't avoid upgrading the grid and/or using local storage. For kicks look at the pricing of Tesla's wall battery. There is no break even point if you add that to the cost of your solar panel setup.

It is a much better idea to place solar panels together with large wind turbines somewhere on unused land or out in the sea. That way you can transport the electricity over a few lines and feed it into the backbone of the mains grid directly. Also maintenance will be easier because the installation is more uniform.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: bicycleguy on April 12, 2018, 08:14:34 pm
I love to see all this negativity about electric cars. 

I drive a 2014 Chevy Spark.  It has the same 103 mile range on a hot day it did when new.  I got it new for $19k in 2015 because nobody wants them.  (the Chevy dealer doesn't even have 240V charging capability ! )  Then got a $7.5k fed tax rebate and a $2.5k state tax rebate, so $9k invested.

The car is ridiculously ( ludicrously ! ) fast.  Have yet to loose a 0 - speed limit dash.  By the time ICE luddites with potentially faster cars realize they really have to go balls to the walls with foot and rpm and noise, I'm already quietly slowing down regenerating on the way.

The dealer is constantly trying to get me to come in for maintenance.  When I ask them for what they can't come up with anything!  I still own an ICE car but keep forgetting the whole filling station routine and keep asking myself why am I changing this oil and doing this maintenance.

I plan trips around fast charging stations.  Still amazes me to plug in car, pick up 80 miles range in 15 minutes, barely enough time for coffee and can.  Other than long trips all charging will be from my roof top solar, as soon as I finish it.

But the luddites are starting to see the light.  Soon the fast charging stations will be clogged with EVs lugging oversize batteries so they can quell their range anxiety.  Wonder when an electron hog F150EV 4X4 will start blocking my view.

This is the golden age of the EV, better enjoy it before its over.

Edited car name duh
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 12, 2018, 09:03:30 pm
I drive a 2014 Chevy Volt.  It has the same 103 mile range on a hot day it did when new.
How do you get such a high range? It seems to be twice what Chevrolet claim. I only know people with the first generation Volt, and they seem to get the sort of range Chevrolet claim, which is about 30 miles. I understand the second generation is supposed to give about 50 miles.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: bicycleguy on April 12, 2018, 09:41:32 pm
I drive a 2014 Chevy Volt.  It has the same 103 mile range on a hot day it did when new.
How do you get such a high range? It seems to be twice what Chevrolet claim. I only know people with the first generation Volt, and they seem to get the sort of range Chevrolet claim, which is about 30 miles. I understand the second generation is supposed to give about 50 miles.
Wow, that was stupid of me.  I laugh when others can't keep the silly Chevy names straight ie: Spark, Volt, Bolt but I did it myself |O.  I'll edit the post.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 12, 2018, 09:51:05 pm
I drive a 2014 Chevy Volt.  It has the same 103 mile range on a hot day it did when new.
How do you get such a high range? It seems to be twice what Chevrolet claim. I only know people with the first generation Volt, and they seem to get the sort of range Chevrolet claim, which is about 30 miles. I understand the second generation is supposed to give about 50 miles.
Wow, that was stupid of me.  I laugh when others can't keep the silly Chevy names straight ie: Spark, Volt, Bolt but I did it myself |O.  I'll edit the post.

Yeah - I noticed that and suspected you meant the Spark.  FWIW, my gen 1 Volt gets 30-40 miles per charge. Warm days it's higher. My usual daily commute is 12 mi round trip so I rarely need to burn gas.  It's 6 miles down hill and 6 miles uphill (2000 feet elevation gain) to get back home.  In almost 4 years I've burned less than 100 gallons.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 12, 2018, 09:57:14 pm
It gets confusing when you 'merkins keep calling it gas, when we have cars that actually run on gas, like Liquid Petroleum gas (LPG), Hydrogen gas, methane/natural gas etc.

Petroleum or Petrol makes it quite a bit clearer.

On efficient engines.  They don't have to be super slow and boring.  My car on the "highway" can get 42mpg (British gallon), but on a race track I averaged 5.4 mpg.  So that was about one gallon every 3 laps, or 1 gallon ever 5 minutes.

We have those too, LNG or Propane, both are mostly used for fleet vehicles like garbage trucks and school buses but I've seen a few private cars that had been converted to propane. Gas is short for Gasoline, I don't know why there are multple names for the stuff but it's not too hard to remember that gas = petrol and what you call "gas" is either propane or LNG (liquified methane).

Also not everyone in the US rolls around with a huge thirsty V8, I'd say 4 cylinder and V6 are the two most common engine configurations you see around. Fullsized trucks and really big SUVs are mostly V8 but they're not nearly as dominant as they were in the prior to the 80s. Personally I've always had 4 cylinder cars, mostly turbocharged.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 12, 2018, 10:53:49 pm
How many cars can a super charger charge at a given time?  If fourteen cars are all lined up to be charge how long does the person in the fourteenth car have to wait to get a charge?  And super chargers don’t give you a full charge so even when they get a charge their mileage is limited.

Clearly some misunderstanding going on.

Here's how SCs work. Each site has a set of chargers. Depending on the model, a charger can range from 90 KW to 132 KW. Each charger  has a number and can feed 2 cars (lettered A and B).  The second car to hook up get's what ever is left over from the first one.  The actual charge rate for a car depends on the state of the battery. A fully discharged battery gets almost 100% of the available rate and it starts to drop from there with the largest drop coming from about half charged to full. Not sure what the terminal rate is but I thinnk it's less than 10KW. The second car gets the left overs. However, in practice, no one has a fully discharged battery and no one actually charges to 100%.  Typically people charge to the point where they can get to the next SC or their destination. So, even the second car on a charger seldom gets nothing and it's often pretty high. There is quite frequent turn over at SCs. If the occupancy is less than 50%, everyone gets the max charge rate for their battery state. The only time I've seen more than 50% was on a very busy travel day (the evening before thanksgiving, iirc). I've never had to wait for a spot to open up.  And, in the places where people have had to wait (mostly in the Bay Area and Southern CA), Tesla has been very proactive in building out more capacity and new SCs in the general area.

I'm not sure what you mean by "don't give you a full charge".  If you want, you can get a full charge but that last 1/8 takes about 20 minutes because off the drop off (this is to protect the battery).  I've actually done that in one case 3 years ago where I needed a return charge. Though, it's quite unnecessary for the vast number of cases.  In fact, my super charger strategy when traveling is to start with an amount of charge such that when I get to the SC, I have about 10% charge left so it will recharge faster. Typically, I only need about 60% to make it to the next SC or destination though the car will tell you when you have enough.

I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 12, 2018, 11:30:35 pm
I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.
That is not a different way of thinking. That is making do with a system which takes more time no matter how you try to sugar coat it for yourself. Short charge or long charge it doesn't matter because you still need to charge for the distance you drive. I already hate going to the filling station because it takes time. You only live once so don't waste your time by waiting.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 13, 2018, 12:12:58 am
I already hate going to the filling station because it takes time. You only live once so don't waste your time by waiting.

Absolutely!  That's what I love about my Volt. I plug it in at night and I'm full in the morning.  I don't think I appreciated how much I'd love not having to go to the filling station once a week to fill up.   Now I go once every 3-4 months - usually only after I've taken a long road trip. I enjoy this even more than the money I save.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 13, 2018, 12:26:46 am
That's what all the guys I know with electrics rave about too, it's so convenient, they never have to go anywhere to fill up anymore. They just plug in the car when they get home at night just like they plug in their mobile phone when they go to bed. It's super easy, assuming you're one of the many millions of people who have a living situation where this is possible, if you're not then you aren't the target market so there's no sense going on about it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 13, 2018, 12:46:50 am
I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.
That is not a different way of thinking. That is making do with a system which takes more time no matter how you try to sugar coat it for yourself. Short charge or long charge it doesn't matter because you still need to charge for the distance you drive. I already hate going to the filling station because it takes time. You only live once so don't waste your time by waiting.

Maybe you should slow down and smell the roses. I don't find charging time to be a big deal. But if it bugs you, go right ahead and keep putting CO2 and other nasty gasses into the atmosphere. Considering that I "waste" maybe an hour or two a year total on charging time, I think I'll stick to EVs. Though, I have to say, I save a lot of time not going to the gas station. 20 minutes to gas up vs 20 seconds of my time to charge at home overnight, I suspect I actually spend less time than you do.

And before you give the apartment dweller argument, most SC are near shopping areas so charging can be overlapped with shopping.

And, your comments clearly indicate that you don't understand the gas station mentality.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 13, 2018, 12:59:51 am
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 13, 2018, 01:09:49 am
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.
Charging is a serious issue for everyone on long journeys, but a daily charge for a daily commute is only a hardship if you lack your own driveway, garage or other space with a charging point. The only reasonable drawback to plugging the car in every night when you get home is the issue of forgetting, and not being able to go to work the next morning.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 13, 2018, 01:12:37 am
I charge about once a week.  10 seconds to plug in at night and 10 seconds to unplug the next morning.  Lose the filling station mind set.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 13, 2018, 01:28:18 am
Out of curiosity, how much area do all the rooftops in Europe take up? How much area for the parking lots?

For kicks look at the pricing of Tesla's wall battery. There is no break even point if you add that to the cost of your solar panel setup.


I'm not so sure you are correct.  You need to facor in the cost of the electricity?  In California where I am located the electricity can cost as much as $0.85 at times and as little as $0.12.  One doesn't even need solar pannels.  If I have a Tesla PowerWall I can chage the PW batteries at $0.12 when rates are low, and then sell the power to our power compnay when they are charging $0.85.

I would think with a 700% diffeence in the cost of buying and selling electricty the PW make a lot of financial sense.






   
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 13, 2018, 01:40:58 am
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.

Most people plug their mobile phone in each night do they not? What is so different about plugging in the car each night too? I know guys who do this, they don't seem to bothered by the extra 5 seconds before they walk into the house. It is actually something every one of them has raved about how convenient it is, they pull into the driveway at night and plug in the car, they never have to go to a gas station. It sounds absolutely great to me, it's only the fact that I absolutely love my classic Volvo that prevents me from getting an electric myself.

What part of "if you're not one of the millions of people who can plug in to charge in their driveway then this doesn't apply to you" do you not understand? I get it, an electric car probably won't work for you, why are you so fixated on this and refusing to see that for millions of people it can and in fact does work very well? It seems almost obsessive that you are insisting it flat out doesn't work and then listing reasons it doesn't work for *you* and acting as though everyone is in your situation when in fact many millions of people are not.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 13, 2018, 01:51:38 am
How many cars can a super charger charge at a given time?  If fourteen cars are all lined up to be charge how long does the person in the fourteenth car have to wait to get a charge?  And super chargers don’t give you a full charge so even when they get a charge their mileage is limited.

Clearly some misunderstanding going on.

Here's how SCs work. Each site has a set of chargers. Depending on the model, a charger can range from 90 KW to 132 KW. Each charger  has a number and can feed 2 cars (lettered A and B).  The second car to hook up get's what ever is left over from the first one.  The actual charge rate for a car depends on the state of the battery. A fully discharged battery gets almost 100% of the available rate and it starts to drop from there with the largest drop coming from about half charged to full. Not sure what the terminal rate is but I thinnk it's less than 10KW. The second car gets the left overs. However, in practice, no one has a fully discharged battery and no one actually charges to 100%.  Typically people charge to the point where they can get to the next SC or their destination. So, even the second car on a charger seldom gets nothing and it's often pretty high. There is quite frequent turn over at SCs. If the occupancy is less than 50%, everyone gets the max charge rate for their battery state. The only time I've seen more than 50% was on a very busy travel day (the evening before thanksgiving, iirc). I've never had to wait for a spot to open up.  And, in the places where people have had to wait (mostly in the Bay Area and Southern CA), Tesla has been very proactive in building out more capacity and new SCs in the general area.

I'm not sure what you mean by "don't give you a full charge".  If you want, you can get a full charge but that last 1/8 takes about 20 minutes because off the drop off (this is to protect the battery).  I've actually done that in one case 3 years ago where I needed a return charge. Though, it's quite unnecessary for the vast number of cases.  In fact, my super charger strategy when traveling is to start with an amount of charge such that when I get to the SC, I have about 10% charge left so it will recharge faster. Typically, I only need about 60% to make it to the next SC or destination though the car will tell you when you have enough.

I think you are operating on the filling station mentality. Full tank, drive until near empty and then fill 'er up again.  This isn't how EV owners do it. Generally, I never charge more than 85% and am fine going with well short of a full charge. Lots of EV owners target even less than that for their daily driving. I only do a full charge when I have a long day of driving ahead. It really is a different way of thinking.

This is a very intersting converstation, it goes to show you how everyones experiance with a plugin electric car is different.
The drive from LA to SF takes an additional 2 hours in a Tesla.
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/fastest-trip-la-sf (https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/fastest-trip-la-sf)

And driving a Tesla to Tahoe once you leave the Sacramento area where are the Super Chargers?  And just how many of them are in Tahoe?
Lake Tahoe South Shore gets first Tesla Superchargers as region prepares for more electric vehicles
https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/local/lake-tahoe-south-shore-gets-first-tesla-supercharger-as-region-prepares-for-more-electric-vehicles/ (https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/local/lake-tahoe-south-shore-gets-first-tesla-supercharger-as-region-prepares-for-more-electric-vehicles/)

In the region there are only a handful of public Tesla Superchargers. There is one in Reno with a second in the works, two in Truckee with another on the way, one in Topaz Lake and now one in Stateline. Last year a universal DC Fast Charger was installed in the Heavenly Village Park.

Can you make it from Seattle to Lake Chelan witout having to stop for a charge along the way?  Then one in Chelan are there any SC stations?  How would you make this trip?

I looked at a Tesla and purcashed a Volt instead.  As Teslas are watining in line to get charged.  The trip for us to LA is same as for ICE.  No 2 hour for usto get a charge.















Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 13, 2018, 02:06:07 am
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.

Most people plug their mobile phone in each night do they not? What is so different about plugging in the car each night too? I know guys who do this, they don't seem to bothered by the extra 5 seconds before they walk into the house. It is actually something every one of them has raved about how convenient it is, they pull into the driveway at night and plug in the car, they never have to go to a gas station. It sounds absolutely great to me, it's only the fact that I absolutely love my classic Volvo that prevents me from getting an electric myself.

What part of "if you're not one of the millions of people who can plug in to charge in their driveway then this doesn't apply to you" do you not understand? I get it, an electric car probably won't work for you, why are you so fixated on this and refusing to see that for millions of people it can and in fact does work very well? It seems almost obsessive that you are insisting it flat out doesn't work and then listing reasons it doesn't work for *you* and acting as though everyone is in your situation when in fact many millions of people are not.

Well said.  Does it even take 5 seconds to plug it in?  Takes me longer to get out of the car.
I was one of those people who wasn't too thrilled when my wife wanted an electric car.  We looked at the Tesla and BMW and quickly realized they weren't for us.  One could get stranded quite easily.  Then we looked at the Volt.  Ugggg, a Chevy.  I was not thrilled.  I remember the days of the cheap fall apart America cars like the Vega.  We purchased one.  Am I eating crow.  Not only has the Chevy Volt turned out (so far) to be a good quality car, the software and apps are well designed.  Hate to admit it, but I would by another.  And as for driving the car electric cars are amazing and a lot of fun to drive compared to ICE.

Once you drive an electric you never want to drive an ICE again.

And if you car abount money it cost about $3.50 to charge the car based on our power compnaies evening rates.  When driving on battery power it costs us about $0.05 per mile.  Based on today's gas prices that's a bit more than half the cost of an ICE per mile.



 



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 13, 2018, 08:34:21 am
Sorry but charging every day is like having to inflate the tyres every day  :palm: What is not to understand about that?
Also I don't need to go shopping every day and if I need something from a shop I order it online or go by bike. I need a car to go to customers, visit relatives or go on a holiday and I really don't want to have to 'fiddle' with a car for 20 minutes before it works. You probably guessed it: densely populated country so no fixed parking spaces and thus no way to charge at home.
What part of "if you're not one of the millions of people who can plug in to charge in their driveway then this doesn't apply to you" do you not understand?
What you (and several others) seem to be missing is that an EV isn't a 'solution' which scales well for charging at home. If many more households have an EV which they let charge overnight the electricity grid would get overloaded. For now with EVs in the single digit percentages it doesn't matter much but at some point it will. Ofcourse there will be exceptions like in countries where the rural areas already have heavier electricity connections for heating (Norway is probably an example). My point is: that an EV is suitable for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone out of the box.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 13, 2018, 10:13:49 am
Quote
If many more households have an EV which they let charge overnight the electricity grid would get overloaded.

I read such a quote several times in this thread, and this is BS.
If we switch to EVs this would add between 10% (UK) and 15% (Germany) to the electricity demand.
For 1 million cars it would add ~0,35% and for 45 million cars ~15% in Germany.
In the same time the overall demand is also rising based on growth of population. There is always the need for more electricity, and EVs are just a part of it.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-switch-to-electric-vehicles-would-add-just-10-per-cent-to-uk-power-demand (https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-switch-to-electric-vehicles-would-add-just-10-per-cent-to-uk-power-demand)
Its interesting that you quote an article which explains why it is not BS. Although the average UK electricity consumption may not massively increase, the wiring in the average street was not built for everyone in the street coming home in the early evening, and plugging in an additional 6kW load at around the same time. Either higher rated cables are needed, or a legally enforced system of controlled charging times, to spread the peak load. Bigger cable would be massively expensive. Controlled charging times are probably OK for the average commuter, but could be a serious problem for someone with unusual hours.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 13, 2018, 11:27:31 am
I read such a quote several times in this thread, and this is BS.
If we switch to EVs this would add between 10% (UK) and 15% (Germany) to the electricity demand.
For 1 million cars it would add ~0,35% and for 45 million cars ~15% in Germany.
In the same time the overall demand is also rising based on growth of population. There is always the need for more electricity, and EVs are just a part of it.

It is not BS, but misunderstanding. Problem is not increased average consumption in kW/h.
Problem is in maximum installed peak power of distribution network.
In Croatia, average household distribution connection is specified for 6 kVA of continuous power. If you need more, no problem, but you have to pay additionally for privilege of being able to pull more peak power on demand. You pay that in addition to all the kW/h you spend.
Rationale behind it is that 10 households time 6 kVA in a street can be served with a small inexpensive 60kVA transformer. If all of them want to charge a car at night , and need 20 kVA of power for 8 hours, you need much larger 200kVA transformer in local substation. And then every larger transformers feeding those small ones has to be upgraded to larger capacity. And on and on.

In Croatia, if every household would have one EV, peak power of national grid would have to be substantially upgraded (80-100 %), although average electricity consumption would go up 20-25%.
All of that is far from show stopper, and would be solved with technologically quite traditional upgrade...

But that has to be said, and it is something that has to be done before EV can be mainstream.....
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 13, 2018, 01:00:57 pm
Your number is to high, we charge our car with 3.6kW (4.5 kVA). Usually every third night. Usually for 3-4 hours.

That is in ballpark of  60-100 km per day ?

As I said before, it is not impossible. Quite the opposite, it is entirely technically practical. But needs to be  done before calling something mainstream.

Also, I live in a city. I park on the street with hundreds of other cars. Infrastructure has to be built. Very expensive infrastructure..

Mainstreaming EV's is not a technical problem but a logistic one. It is a major multilevel project nobody wants to own. 

Regards,
Sinisa
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 13, 2018, 01:16:24 pm
Maybe they could make drive-through charging stations:

https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/roads-that-charge-cars-as-you-drive-along-them/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/roads-that-charge-cars-as-you-drive-along-them/)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 13, 2018, 02:11:06 pm
Maybe they could make drive-through charging stations:

Maybe this is a good charging solution for a bus on a circular route, or something like this. You can equip several streets your vehicle fleet uses frequently and you can run them 24/7.

The UK already has buses that recharge at special stops at each end of the route:

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25621426 (http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-25621426)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 13, 2018, 04:50:07 pm

This is a very intersting converstation, it goes to show you how everyones experiance with a plugin electric car is different.
The drive from LA to SF takes an additional 2 hours in a Tesla.
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/fastest-trip-la-sf (https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/fastest-trip-la-sf)

And driving a Tesla to Tahoe once you leave the Sacramento area where are the Super Chargers?  And just how many of them are in Tahoe?
Lake Tahoe South Shore gets first Tesla Superchargers as region prepares for more electric vehicles
https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/local/lake-tahoe-south-shore-gets-first-tesla-supercharger-as-region-prepares-for-more-electric-vehicles/ (https://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/local/lake-tahoe-south-shore-gets-first-tesla-supercharger-as-region-prepares-for-more-electric-vehicles/)

In the region there are only a handful of public Tesla Superchargers. There is one in Reno with a second in the works, two in Truckee with another on the way, one in Topaz Lake and now one in Stateline. Last year a universal DC Fast Charger was installed in the Heavenly Village Park.

Can you make it from Seattle to Lake Chelan witout having to stop for a charge along the way?  Then one in Chelan are there any SC stations?  How would you make this trip?

I looked at a Tesla and purcashed a Volt instead.  As Teslas are watining in line to get charged.  The trip for us to LA is same as for ICE.  No 2 hour for usto get a charge.

Well, for starters, you cite 4 year old experiences for the LA to SF drive. A LOT of SCs have been added since then and the new ones are 120KW minimum (as opposed to 90KW). Check out this map (https://supercharge.info/) for the current supercharger locations.

When some one goes to Tahoe, it's usually a destination. With destination charging, L2 is fine. It looks like lots of hotels have chargers, just pick one that gives you an overnight charge. The SCs around tahoe are big ones, Stateline has 14 stations, there are 14 stations between the two Truckee ones. There are a number of ChaDeMo chargers which Teslas can use. And various casinos and ski areas have chargers. I wouldn't hesitate to make that trip in my Tesla.  https://www.plugshare.com/ (https://www.plugshare.com/) for more info.

My house in Seattle to Chelan is 171 miles - no charging stop needed. No SCs at Chelan but there are a number of chargers L2 and HAL2. As a destination, that works for me as I can charge while doing other things (dining, sleeping,...). Most nice hotels have chargers.  There are a number of SCs planned for that area - Wenatchee, Omak though Telsa is pretty good about missing "approximate schedules".  I have confidence they will get there eventually. There are a number of 50KW ChaDeMo chargers on the route that I can use, one in Leavenworth which is about 1/2 way for those that don't have enough charge. Not as good as an SC but still pretty fast. Plus Leavenworth is a fun place to stop, anyway. We often do it regardless of how much charge we have.

In a few weeks we're going to Walla Walla for wine tasting weekend. Two SCs (eburg, kennewick) and the hotel has a charger. Total delay over driving straight through is about 40 minutes. But then, no one drives straight through - bathroom, food, coffee. The EV does take longer but not hours. We could do the trip with one stop but 2 stops at lower charge levels make it go faster.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 13, 2018, 05:38:43 pm
Quote
If many more households have an EV which they let charge overnight the electricity grid would get overloaded.
I read such a quote several times in this thread, and this is BS.
If we switch to EVs this would add between 10% (UK) and 15% (Germany) to the electricity demand.
You don't understand. It is not about consumption but it is about distribution! The distribution network at the street level needs to be able to cope with charging EVs (and the same problem applies to solar panels).

This graph shows that households are not the primary users of electricity so this should give you an indication on how the distribution grid has been designed:
(https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/final-electricity-consumption-by-sector-4/image_xlarge)

Also your numbers are wrong. If I simply multiply the km driven by cars in the NL (118 trillion) and the required kWh per km (250Wh):  118.5G * 0.250=29GWh) then in the NL it will take an additional 25% (29GWh/120GWh=25%) of elecricity generating capacity to switch to EVs. This means that the capacity of the local distribution grids will need to be almost doubled to deliver that additional 25% if people charge their EVs at home. The same goes (worse) in reverse for putting solar panels on roofs.

Edit: I read the article you quoted and the articles it linked to but how they get to only 10% extra demand is conveniently left out even though it is a crucial number to determine the validity of their claims. The ease with which I can debunk it makes me think it has been pulled out of a dark place. The graphs showing the massive multi-billion Pounds investments into charging infrastructure speak for themselve though. It makes me doubt EVs will ever become mainstream. Interesting for the happy few who can charge them from their own solar panels and/or wind turbines but it is going to be expensive for everyone else.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 13, 2018, 09:45:51 pm
If I simply multiply the km driven by cars in the NL (118 trillion) and the required kWh per km (250Wh):  118.5G * 0.250=29GWh) then in the NL it will take an additional 25% (29GWh/120GWh=25%) of elecricity generating capacity to switch to EVs. This means that the capacity of the local distribution grids will need to be almost doubled to deliver that additional 25% if people charge their EVs at home.

And again the same assumption: Over night all cars are replaced by EVs and the grid needs to be doubled.  :scared:

We are split what the exact numbers are, but whats the point? The grid needs to be developed? Sure! We need more electricity? Sure! We pay the companies for this development? Sure! They will handle this. It's a normal day-to-day process to develop, maintain and upgrade the infrastructure around us.

The amount of EVs will grow over the next decades and also the grid will be delevoped in the same time. The world will continue to turn. Everything will be fine, don't worry!
You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 13, 2018, 09:49:24 pm
When smartmeters were installed in California the tech companies like Cisco thought the could make a bundle with new power company related smartgrid networking.

In theory Cisco was correct and they had the potential to make billions.  But then the questions is who is going to pay fo the billions to upgrade the grid.  Cisco researchers cost estimates found it would be cost to replace existing grid plus and other 50%.  Why the other 50%?  Becausee the power companies have spares of evertyghing for when devices fail.  Upgrading the grid means throwing away the brand new spares plus all of the existing grid equipment.

At the time no one sees the value in upgrading the grid or paying for it.  Cisco estimates it will be over 100 years to upgrade the gird just in California.

It’s one of those things...  If it’s not broken, no one wants to pay to replace what’s working with something that will, to them, work just the same.


 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 13, 2018, 10:42:46 pm

You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Well, I certainly see the "overloaded grid" arguments using the loads from full deployment of EVs. The system will get upgraded based on demand - happens all the time.  Also, peak consumption, at least in North America, is mid-day so there is capacity to spare in the evenings when most EVs would be charged. In fact, a lot of utilities have lower night rates to encourage consumption at off-peak times. I'm not sure how close to over-capacity the grid really is.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 12:06:16 am

You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Well, I certainly see the "overloaded grid" arguments using the loads from full deployment of EVs. The system will get upgraded based on demand - happens all the time.  Also, peak consumption, at least in North America, is mid-day so there is capacity to spare in the evenings when most EVs would be charged. In fact, a lot of utilities have lower night rates to encourage consumption at off-peak times. I'm not sure how close to over-capacity the grid really is.
Peak consumption during the day is due to the companies being active. During the day usage from residential areas is low anyway because most people are at work. But don't take my word for it: https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers (https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers)
I hope it is clear that charging the EVs when people come back home from work is not a good idea because that overlaps with peak demand in residential areas.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 14, 2018, 12:26:40 am

You are reading things that aren't there. I never said EVs are replaced over night. I'm just looking at the current situation and a hypothetical situation in which cars are replaced by EVs and what needs to be done to achieve that. I never attached a time line to it!

Also updating the distribution grid for heavier loads in small or big steps is going to be more expensive no matter how you twist and turn it.
Well, I certainly see the "overloaded grid" arguments using the loads from full deployment of EVs. The system will get upgraded based on demand - happens all the time.  Also, peak consumption, at least in North America, is mid-day so there is capacity to spare in the evenings when most EVs would be charged. In fact, a lot of utilities have lower night rates to encourage consumption at off-peak times. I'm not sure how close to over-capacity the grid really is.
Peak consumption during the day is due to the companies being active. During the day usage from residential areas is low anyway because most people are at work. But don't take my word for it: https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers (https://www.epa.gov/energy/electricity-customers)
I hope it is clear that charging the EVs when people come back home from work is not a good idea because that overlaps with peak demand in residential areas.

That's not really correct. You've ignored the fact that daytime air conditioning in the many very hot parts of the US is the largest load.  In other parts of the US or in the same areas but during winter, electric heating is the largest load.

Lighting in the evenings is a relatively smaller load and overnight it is not a factor.

Part of the confusion may be that the diversity of climate in the USA is much greater than your location.

As pointed out previously - many locales have electricity rate structures that encourage conservation during high demand hours - daytime and early evenings.

One of the features of most EVs is the ability to program your charging so that it is only done during low demand times - such as late night or early AM.

The upshot is that overnight charging at home really does make perfect sense.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 14, 2018, 03:06:23 am
It's becoming obvious that this debate is futile. The naysayers argue from a purely emotional level, a belief not much different than a religious belief that something won't work or can't work, and no amount of logic or evidence that it does work or is working will ever convince them. No matter how many times I point out that something works perfectly well for a large number of people they will grasp at straws and dig up edge cases to deflect.

It's just a fact that EVs are here, people are driving them, they're plugging them in each night exactly as they plug in their phones. The sky is not falling, the grid is not collapsing, it's already present reality, not some kind of hypothetical sci-fi future. I suspect of the people for whom a current tech EV is a perfect fit for their lifestyle, we are at probably 5-10% market penetration. There is a LOT of room for growth before we even worry about strange edge cases like single car households with only street parking where they take a 3,000 mile road trip every 2 weeks and cannot rent a car because the trillions of other people wanting to take a road trip that same week have rented them all. That's just silly, it flat out doesn't happen.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 14, 2018, 03:14:55 am
Around 3/4 of the cars near me are street parked, it's not an outlier here in the Netherlands.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 14, 2018, 06:37:09 am
Around 3/4 of the cars near me are street parked, it's not an outlier here in the Netherlands.

Then it doesn't apply to you or 3/4 of the people around you, so what? I'm sure you realize there are hundreds of millions of people for whom that's not the case?

Have a look at my home town for example https://goo.gl/maps/egY6Fw5mqfq

How much street parking do you see? There suburbs like this all over the country. Literally millions of houses with driveways and/or garages. I'm still confused why the fact that you live in an area where this isn't the case somehow means that it can't possibly be true somewhere else.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 10:12:28 am
Around 3/4 of the cars near me are street parked, it's not an outlier here in the Netherlands.

Then it doesn't apply to you or 3/4 of the people around you, so what? I'm sure you realize there are hundreds of millions of people for whom that's not the case?
I think you should look much further than you home town and collect some real numbers to back up your claim (IOW: do the math). Look at New York for example. And then look at Europe. There are 3 to 4 times more people living in Europe compared to the US. I'm very sure your hundreds of millions of people is grossly over estimated.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 14, 2018, 11:19:34 am
Around 3/4 of the cars near me are street parked, it's not an outlier here in the Netherlands.

Then it doesn't apply to you or 3/4 of the people around you, so what? I'm sure you realize there are hundreds of millions of people for whom that's not the case?

Have a look at my home town for example https://goo.gl/maps/egY6Fw5mqfq (https://goo.gl/maps/egY6Fw5mqfq)

How much street parking do you see? There suburbs like this all over the country. Literally millions of houses with driveways and/or garages. I'm still confused why the fact that you live in an area where this isn't the case somehow means that it can't possibly be true somewhere else.

And this is where me and other 250000 people live...

https://www.google.com/maps/@45.3360734,14.4272461,1861m/data= (https://www.google.com/maps/@45.3360734,14.4272461,1861m/data=)!3m1!1e3

It is absolutely tiring how people from USA don't want to accept that rest of the world is different. If we (people not from USA) say something different we are immediately either stupid or don't know better..
We're not. We just live somewhere else where socioeconomic, historic, geographic and all kinds of other facts are simply different.
So we think different and live differently in different environment wanting different things...

Regards,
Sinisa
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 14, 2018, 02:42:39 pm
It is absolutely tiring how people from USA don't want to accept that rest of the world is different.

Generalize much? The thread topic is about when EVs will become mainstream. Right now, they are not, but forum users who currently drive EVs decided to share their respective experiences to indicate that the many objections raised (eg: range anxiety) are largely irrelevant. I didn't see anyone other than you turn this into a USA v. the rest of the world argument. If it were, how would you explain Norway's EV ownership statistics?

Also, I lived half my life outside the US, in either a house with a garage, or an apartment with reserved parking spots. Is it common? Not to the same extent as in the suburban US, but not everyone parks on the street (when at home) either.

Go check out some user forums for EVs, there are plenty of folks who own EVs despite not having home charging facilities.


I think you should look much further than you home town and collect some real numbers to back up your claim (IOW: do the math).

I don't see you backing up any of your claims with data or references. Also:

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/units.html (https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/units.html)


Cue next moving of the goal posts in 3... 2... 1...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 02:49:26 pm
It is absolutely tiring how people from USA don't want to accept that rest of the world is different.
Generalize much? The thread topic is about when EVs will become mainstream. Right now, they are not, but forum users who currently drive EVs decided to share their respective experiences to indicate that the many objections raised (eg: range anxiety) are largely irrelevant. I didn't see anyone other than you turn this into a USA v. the rest of the world argument. If it were, how would you explain Norway's EV ownership statistics?
I already wrote that Norway (and Sweden and Finland) benefit from a very low population density, almost free electricity from hydro and a high capacity electricity grid for heating. In those countries many people already have a mains outlet near their car keep it warm during the winter. However those countries (with a total of 20 million people) are nowhere near representative for the rest of Europe (742 million people). And that brings me back to my (bottom line) point: because an EV works for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone with today's infrastructure. Exceptions don't make the rule.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 14, 2018, 03:33:39 pm
And that brings me back to my (bottom line) point: because an EV works for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone with today's infrastructure. Exceptions don't make the rule.

If that's your viewpoint, we're in complete agreement. I (and I'm not alone here) did not get that impression from your previous comments - they were the logical inverse (ie, because it doesn't work for a few today, it can't work for anyone).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: edavid on April 14, 2018, 03:37:15 pm
There are 3 to 4 times more people living in Europe compared to the US. I'm very sure your hundreds of millions of people is grossly over estimated.

Actually 2.3X the number of people, and 1.1X the number of vehicles:

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/europe-population/ (http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/europe-population/)
The current population of Europe is 742,525,139 as of Saturday, April 14, 2018, based on the latest United Nations estimates.

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ (http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/)
The current population of the United States of America is 326,267,282 as of Saturday, April 14, 2018, based on the latest United Nations estimates.

http://www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/vehicles-in-use (http://www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/vehicles-in-use)
There are some 291 million vehicles on Europe's roads, or one for every two people.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/)
This graph shows the number of vehicles in the U.S. from 1990 through 2016. Some 268.8 million vehicles were registered here in 2016.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 14, 2018, 04:23:54 pm
And that brings me back to my (bottom line) point: because an EV works for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone with today's infrastructure. Exceptions don't make the rule.
So, your argument is that we shouldn't have EVs because they can't work for everyone.  I'm pretty sure that none of the pro-EV folks ever said or even implied they would work for everyone. Mainstream doesn't mean 100%. I don't think it even means 50%.

And the big argument against EVs - that they really don't help solve the problem - has been disproven in multiple ways so we seem to be left with the silly argument that "they can't apply to everyone so they should go away".

At least the EVers are trying to help solve the problem of global warming. Happy to hear the anti-EVers approaches to that.  It's a very big problem and we all need to chip away at it. You may wish to see me as an arrogant, clueless American but at least I'm trying to do something about the problem. et tu?


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 14, 2018, 04:28:09 pm
@phil: I found this interesting (but old) report: http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/OSE/FINAL%20REPORT_Removing%20Barriers%20to%20EV%20Adoption_TO%20POST.pdf (http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/OSE/FINAL%20REPORT_Removing%20Barriers%20to%20EV%20Adoption_TO%20POST.pdf)

I wonder how much of it has been implemented.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 14, 2018, 04:31:08 pm
It is absolutely tiring how people from USA don't want to accept that rest of the world is different.

Generalize much? The thread topic is about when EVs will become mainstream. Right now, they are not, but forum users who currently drive EVs decided to share their respective experiences to indicate that the many objections raised (eg: range anxiety) are largely irrelevant. I didn't see anyone other than you turn this into a USA v. the rest of the world argument. If it were, how would you explain Norway's EV ownership statistics?

Also, I lived half my life outside the US, in either a house with a garage, or an apartment with reserved parking spots. Is it common? Not to the same extent as in the suburban US, but not everyone parks on the street (when at home) either.

Go check out some user forums for EVs, there are plenty of folks who own EVs despite not having home charging facilities.


I think you should look much further than you home town and collect some real numbers to back up your claim (IOW: do the math).

I don't see you backing up any of your claims with data or references. Also:

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/units.html (https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/units.html)


Cue next moving of the goal posts in 3... 2... 1...

Thank you for asking, no I don't generalize much, or that often.  How about you? I didn't say ALL Americans are like  that..
I wanted to say that I'm pissed when Americans do that. Because I expect better...

I personally said I would LOVE to own an EV if :
1. price wasn't 2x of same IC vehicle
2. I had a reliable way of charging it.
3. I don't have a range anxiety. EV would perfectly fit my use case in that regard.

That being said, thank you for excellent link to census data. Which exactly explains the disconnect we have here..

From census data (2000) it shows that on average more than 60% of people in USA live in houses with easy capability to charge at home.
Norway has almost same population as Croatia (5 vs 4 Mil), in  country that is vast and about 50% of housing is detached single homes. So almost the same as USA. In Spain, 65% of people live in apartments, Germany 55% etc. In Croatia, there are many detached houses in the cities, but parking on the street... In Italy too...  So yes, numbers do tell the story..

Sad truth is that you cannot extrapolate any conclusion from existing EV ownership. Current EV owners are enthusiasts and those that are lucky to be in position to be able to afford and operate EV.
They are more anomaly than something that can be used to extract plans how to go forward.

As you yourself say topic was "mainstream use of EV". Not so soon, not until infrastructure is built. And that is something that will be really hard somewhere and not so much somewhere else..

Regards,

Sinisa



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 14, 2018, 04:57:16 pm
I find the Zinc cycle intriguing. You could imagine a system where zinc would serve as the storage medium in a flow-battery/zinc-recoverer, while in a car it would be fuel for a fuel cell (https://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/newenergyandfuel/com/2010/09/14/refuelable-zinc-air-battery-returns-as-a-fuel-cell/). The flow battery would be at tank stations and at home. The flow battery doesn't really care that zinc in alkaline solutions doesn't plate nicely, it gets mechanically removed and compacted, and the fuel cell doesn't have to plate at all.

It's a bit of a chicken and egg problem though, no tank stations, no cars. Electric cars have it easier, because every mains socket is a (slow) tank station. It would need to be forced by government. On the plus side, the tank stations could provide distributed grid electricity storage.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 05:06:01 pm
And that brings me back to my (bottom line) point: because an EV works for a few today doesn't mean it can work for everyone with today's infrastructure. Exceptions don't make the rule.
So, your argument is that we shouldn't have EVs because they can't work for everyone.
That is not my argument. People keep raving on about how easy it is to charge yadda yadda yadda but from their own little bubble they seem forget that the electricity needs to come from somewhere and thus needs to be transported. If the majority of the cars are EVs upgrading the grid (at some point) alone will require a massive investment  which needs to be paid for one way or another. Also include that people are seeking acknowledgement that they made the right choice by buying an EV as an early adopter.
Quote
And the big argument against EVs - that they really don't help solve the problem - has been disproven in multiple ways so we seem to be left with the silly argument that "they can't apply to everyone so they should go away".
That is not true and easy to proof mathematically. Depending on how electricity is generated an EV can produce more CO2 per distance travelled compared to a fuel economic car. This has been proven over and over again so we are not going to do a recap in every post.

You really should put EVs in a context where there is a lot of development when it comes to renewable energy and alternative ways of getting cars moving. Bio-fuels, (hydrogen) fuel cells, etc are also under development and each have their own advantages/disadvantages. Nothing is set in stone yet.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 14, 2018, 05:14:04 pm
@phil: I found this interesting (but old) report: http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/OSE/FINAL%20REPORT_Removing%20Barriers%20to%20EV%20Adoption_TO%20POST.pdf (http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/OSE/FINAL%20REPORT_Removing%20Barriers%20to%20EV%20Adoption_TO%20POST.pdf)

I wonder how much of it has been implemented.

I read it when it came out but had forgotten it. Thanks for reminding me. When it came out I recall thinking it was part of the "consultant full employment movement". A lot of scattershot ideas with basically zero meat (private charger sharing, for example). The only half way reasonable one was DCFC (think ChaDeMo, not death cab for cuties...) on city properties and that hasn't happened. In fact, instead of requiring that apartment construction include EV charging in parking spaces (or at least wiring for it) they have now allowed apartments to be built with no parking at all. And the extent of their support is adding a handful of Level 2 chargers in random on-street places. (It's been shown that L2 chargers get approximately 1 use every two days, FAIL.). The number of L2 chargers in private lots has been increasing but that was not due to any government efforts - driven by customer demand. Probably the biggest addition has been a large number of chargers at the airport parking structure and that has it's issues that I won't go into here. For one of the most progressive cities in the US, Seattle doesn't even make the top 10 "EV friendly" city list. Though, it continually ranks high in EV ownership.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 14, 2018, 05:20:42 pm
That is not true and easy to proof mathematically. Depending on how electricity is generated an EV can produce more CO2 per distance travelled compared to a fuel economic car. This has been proven over and over again so we are not going to do a recap in every post.

You really should put EVs in a context where there is a lot of development when it comes to renewable energy and alternative ways of getting cars moving. Bio-fuels, (hydrogen) fuel cells, etc are also under development and each have their own advantages/disadvantages. Nothing is set in stone yet.
Then you really are ignoring all the points that have been made and the studies link.  I don't see how repeating them will help.

If bio-fuels and hydrogen are your answers, you really have not done your homework.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 14, 2018, 05:20:53 pm
I find the Zinc cycle intriguing. You could imagine a system where zinc would serve as the storage medium in a flow-battery/zinc-recoverer, while in a car it would be fuel for a fuel cell (https://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/newenergyandfuel/com/2010/09/14/refuelable-zinc-air-battery-returns-as-a-fuel-cell/). The flow battery would be at tank stations and at home. The flow battery doesn't really care that zinc in alkaline solutions doesn't plate nicely, it gets mechanically removed and compacted, and the fuel cell doesn't have to plate at all.
Zinc-air batteries were being used in transport applications before lithium ones. They sound great, as energy density is good, zinc is fairly light and plentiful, and you don't need to carry the air. They seemed to have too many degradation issues to reach the big time, though. The article you referenced doesn't seem to offer any major breakthroughs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 14, 2018, 05:28:01 pm


It is absolutely tiring how people from USA don't want to accept that rest of the world is different. If we (people not from USA) say something different we are immediately either stupid or don't know better..
We're not. We just live somewhere else where socioeconomic, historic, geographic and all kinds of other facts are simply different.
So we think different and live differently in different environment wanting different things...

Regards,
Sinisa


Where am I not accepting that other parts of the world are different? I started this whole debate with something along the lines of "if you live in a different situation then this doesn't apply to you" so if it doesn't apply to you why are you even debating? Are you seriously saying that suburbs are exclusive to the USA? While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.

After all this, I'm still seeing the argument "Well it doesn't work for my little corner of the world therefore it won't work for anybody" and when I point out that there are *millions* of people who live in situations where it will work and in fact does work I get fingers in the ears "La La La La La!!!!" and restating some previous tired argument or trying to turn this into some one country vs another country debate. Stop trying to claim that I'm saying EVs will work well for everybody or that every other country is just like the USA, or that the USA is superior to other countries because I've said none of this. These are counter-arguments invented in the heads of the naysayers.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 14, 2018, 05:44:21 pm
I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.

The same is true for tens of millions of Europeans. Germany and France have many large suburbs. True in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary as well. Less so in southern Europe but still quite common IME.  I say this as someone who has travelled extensively throughout Europe - including one 8 month continuous visit.

Just as some Americans make generalizations based on their limited experience, some Europeans are guilty of the same.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 14, 2018, 05:48:30 pm
While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.
I don't know which parts of the UK you went to, but off street parking is only available for a small percentage of UK homes.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 05:59:02 pm
That is not true and easy to proof mathematically. Depending on how electricity is generated an EV can produce more CO2 per distance travelled compared to a fuel economic car. This has been proven over and over again so we are not going to do a recap in every post.

You really should put EVs in a context where there is a lot of development when it comes to renewable energy and alternative ways of getting cars moving. Bio-fuels, (hydrogen) fuel cells, etc are also under development and each have their own advantages/disadvantages. Nothing is set in stone yet.
Then you really are ignoring all the points that have been made and the studies link.  I don't see how repeating them will help.
You don't need a study to take the CO2 emissions from the EPA website for a fuel economic car and look up the CO2 emissions per kWh electricity for a country or region. It is simple primary school calculus.
The problem with many studies is that they just acknowledge the opinion of who paid for doing the study.
Quote
If bio-fuels and hydrogen are your answers, you really have not done your homework.
Well bio-fuel has been around for decades already. But it is there and growing steadily. The best thing is: it doesn't require changes in infrastructure or equipment people have. The downside is that it isn't new or very different so it is not sexy.

I have also ran some numbers on bio-fuel. If the US switches to fuel economic cars which use about half compared to the current cars then the US should be able to run nearly all the cars on bio-fuel made from agricultural leftovers (according to the numbers from Poet-DSM when it comes to fuel production per surface area of land used for agriculture). And no, this doesn't take any land away for growing food! Also most of the existing cars can run on bio-fuel already or easely be adapted.

Hydrogen has the advantage that it can be made from water using electricity and it also solves the storage problem. Very interesting for wind turbines and/or solar on or near water (sea or lakes). The efficiency isn't great but if placing an extra wind turbine is cheaper compared to batteries then the choice is easy.

Meanwhile I'll wait and see where things go while filling my car with the highest blend of bio-fuel I can find at the gas station.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 14, 2018, 06:02:43 pm
While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.
I don't know which parts of the UK you went to, but off street parking is only available for a small percentage of UK homes.

The question of course is what percentage?  10%?  That would still be a very large number.

The other important point is that as long as you can park directly next to your home (even if it is not "private") - you can still charge an EV.

When I travel with my Volt, I bring a heavy gauge extension cord and often plug in to outlets in parking garages, outside of buildings, etc.  There's even an "App for that"  - called PlugShare which shows places others have found to charge their EVs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 14, 2018, 06:22:16 pm
Zinc-air batteries were being used in transport applications before lithium ones. They sound great, as energy density is good, zinc is fairly light and plentiful, and you don't need to carry the air. They seemed to have too many degradation issues to reach the big time, though. The article you referenced doesn't seem to offer any major breakthroughs.

It doesn't use batteries in the car, it uses a fuel cell. The problems of car batteries are less of a problem in flow batteries, you have more room before dendrites can reach the cathode, parts can be easily serviced, electrolyte can be replaced etc. The fuel cell meanwhile gets flushed with fresh electrolyte each mechanical charging cycle so it doesn't accumulate crud very quickly.

It's not a problem of breakthroughs, it's problem of bootstrapping. EV can start small easier than mechanically recharged Zinc fuel cells.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 14, 2018, 06:47:25 pm
I don't know which parts of the UK you went to, but off street parking is only available for a small percentage of UK homes.

The question of course is what percentage?  10%?  That would still be a very large number.

The other important point is that as long as you can park directly next to your home (even if it is not "private") - you can still charge an EV.

When I travel with my Volt, I bring a heavy gauge extension cord and often plug in to outlets in parking garages, outside of buildings, etc.  There's even an "App for that"  - called PlugShare which shows places others have found to charge their EVs.
I don't know where we might find proper figures for this, but I'd guess 10-15% of UK homes have off street parking. I would be surprised if its much more than that. Few people have an assigned street parking spot, but more importantly the sidewalk/pavement between the kerb and the house is public land. The house owner can't just dangle a charging cable across that space, and they have no right to install a charging unit at the kerb. In many older towns, the streets are too narrow to even offer enough space at the kerb for a for a box like that. A mother can barely push a pram along the pavement as it is. It would require a massive change in policy to alter this. Its massive because issues of exclusive use/ownership of what is now public space will arise. Sadly, nobody is even trying to discuss this kind of preparation for an electric car future.

Taking a long charging cable wouldn't be much help in the UK. Unless you are travelling to a friend with an unusally large amount of off street parking, which can accommodate your car as well as theirs, you won't be able to plug that cable in.

If the 10-15% with off street parking had electric cars it would make only a small difference to the emissions in UK cities, especially as this 10-15% are in the less densely populated parts. You need a solution that can scale to, say, 50% to start having a meaningful impact.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 07:06:27 pm
The same is true for most of the cities in the Netherlands as well. If I want to charge an EV at home I'd need an extension cord and hope nobody pulls it out at night. Not to mention cars will drive over the cord so it may not be a safe solution. All in all charging at home is not a viable solution for densely populated areas where people don't have a private parking space.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 14, 2018, 08:34:16 pm

Where am I not accepting that other parts of the world are different? I started this whole debate with something along the lines of "if you live in a different situation then this doesn't apply to you" so if it doesn't apply to you why are you even debating? Are you seriously saying that suburbs are exclusive to the USA? While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.

After all this, I'm still seeing the argument "Well it doesn't work for my little corner of the world therefore it won't work for anybody" and when I point out that there are *millions* of people who live in situations where it will work and in fact does work I get fingers in the ears "La La La La La!!!!" and restating some previous tired argument or trying to turn this into some one country vs another country debate. Stop trying to claim that I'm saying EVs will work well for everybody or that every other country is just like the USA, or that the USA is superior to other countries because I've said none of this. These are counter-arguments invented in the heads of the naysayers.

Dear James_S,

please, I already apologized to all Americans (except donald duck trumpet, man has to draw line somewhere :-)) if I hurt anybody's feelings.
I didn't address it to you or anybody personally..

On the other side if you read rest of my messages you would know I'm NOT AGAINST EVs.
Quite the opposite, I'm very unhappy and frustrated that THEY ARE NOT REALITY at this moment, and that fact holds for many places in EU.

I want EV's, and if anybody wants that to become reality, we need to say the truth and say how it is.
So we can start fixing things, to get there one day...

EU is mostly EV not ready and there is a lot of work ahead us.. That is not a naysaying, that is a start of work specification.
Saying that reality check is bullshit, and that all is rosy, and that even few million EVs are big deal... It's very idealistic and noble, but..
I say few milion EV's are statistical anomaly on EU level... Not mainstream, and not even close to some solution... 
30-40 % of non IC vehicles would make some difference.

10% of EVs is nothing, it doesn't fix nothing and save nobody. If they would start making light, low horsepower IC  (800 kg, 60 kW) with fuel efficient engines, that would halve emissions and would be equivalent to 50% of EV market penetration... All if people would only want to change habits and give up on 1.5 t 200HP vehicles.... And you wouldn't have to change anything except people's habits and expectations..

So I agree with you we need to give our best and shouldn't listen to naysayers...

Best regards,

Sinisa
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 14, 2018, 09:42:31 pm
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.

The best scenario is walkable cities with good public transportation systems and EVs for those outside the city centers. 

And BTW there is no reason why fee based low power charging stations could not eventually be made commonplace on residential streets where private parking is not available.  Low power charging stations for overnight charging would not be a hugely expensive or complicated infrastructure change.



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 14, 2018, 10:05:22 pm
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.

The best scenario is walkable cities with good public transportation systems and EVs for those outside the city centers. 

And BTW there is no reason why fee based low power charging stations could not eventually be made commonplace on residential streets where private parking is not available.  Low power charging stations for overnight charging would not be a hugely expensive or complicated infrastructure change.

True. Problem is that exactly people living rural areas are those that do have range anxiety...

Best technology would be EV with 150 km range with small backup generator on board for "limp home mode".
And aggressive buildup of public parkings with chargers in cities.... In rural areas people would charge at home, and would be sure that they will always come home.

Regards,

Sinisa
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on April 14, 2018, 10:14:39 pm
True. Problem is that exactly people living rural areas are those that do have range anxiety...

Best technology would be EV with 150 km range with small backup generator on board for "limp home mode".
They already exist, they are called plugin hybrids.
So you can always charge your batteries with a little combustion engine.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 10:18:47 pm
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.
No. In the NL suburbs are also densely populated. The problem is that public transport goes from city centre to city centre and doesn't reach the outskirts where the companies are (typicall) located. In the NL only 15% of the people use public transport to travel to work and 75% uses a car. After all: public transport takes you from a place you are not at to a place where you don't need to go. Public transport is therefore very slow and I only use it to go to places which are hard to reach by a car due to traffic jams. For example: every now and then I have to go to a customer in Amsterdam. If I use the train it takes 50 minutes door-to-door. If I use the car it takes 25 minutes (without traffic jams). For shorter distances a bycicle (or even walking) is faster than public transport.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 14, 2018, 10:35:09 pm
True. Problem is that exactly people living rural areas are those that do have range anxiety...

Best technology would be EV with 150 km range with small backup generator on board for "limp home mode".
They already exist, they are called plugin hybrids.
So you can always charge your batteries with a little combustion engine.
Not all of them are series hybrid type. Most of them are standard mechanic/electric parallel or power split hybrid.

Series type are only ones that have simple drivetrain of EV, and generator is simply range extender. You could make it a large suitcase sized module, that you could put into your car only if you need it..

Regards,
Sinisa



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 10:46:36 pm
Maybe this will help  :-DD
(https://static.webshopapp.com/shops/074363/files/056410992/telwin-powerbank-drive-9000.jpg)
A small generator won't cut it because of the power needed to move a car. For that the generator would need to have an engine which is the size of a car engine.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 14, 2018, 11:04:05 pm
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.
No. In the NL suburbs are also densely populated.

Are you seriously arguing that people who have homes with private parking do not drive any more on average than those who don't?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: 2N3055 on April 14, 2018, 11:17:08 pm
Maybe this will help  :-DD
(https://static.webshopapp.com/shops/074363/files/056410992/telwin-powerbank-drive-9000.jpg)
A small generator won't cut it because of the power needed to move a car. For that the generator would need to have an engine which is the size of a car engine.
Old Fiat 126 had 18KW engine and could go more than 100 km/h. I remember Porsche commercial saying it was so aerodynamic it neded only 32 HP to go 120 km/h.

There are miniature gas turbine generators available, that are suitcase sized and have power in 100 kW range... Way more than enough...

But it would be nice if you could charge the phone too :-))

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 14, 2018, 11:48:49 pm
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.
No. In the NL suburbs are also densely populated.
Are you seriously arguing that people who have homes with private parking do not drive any more on average than those who don't?
There are two categories of people with private parking spaces in the NL:
1) People with free standing homes are usually rich enough to buy a home close to their company so they don't need to travel far to work.
2) People who have the car parked in the garden of their townhouses (they got suckered into buying a house without a public parking space).
Either way neither have a reason to travel shorter or longer based on what kind of home they have. Keep in mind that the NL is anything like the US. A one hour drive gets you (literally) halfway through the country.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 14, 2018, 11:51:49 pm
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.

The best scenario is walkable cities with good public transportation systems and EVs for those outside the city centers. 

And BTW there is no reason why fee based low power charging stations could not eventually be made commonplace on residential streets where private parking is not available.  Low power charging stations for overnight charging would not be a hugely expensive or complicated infrastructure change.

True. Problem is that exactly people living rural areas are those that do have range anxiety...

Best technology would be EV with 150 km range with small backup generator on board for "limp home mode".
And aggressive buildup of public parkings with chargers in cities.... In rural areas people would charge at home, and would be sure that they will always come home.

Regards,

Sinisa

There are huge numbers of people living in suburbs with private parking that are not exactly rural. I can look out my window and see the neighbor's EV parked in their driveway plugged in right now, it's literally right outside, they drive it to work every day, it's so strange to have people denying that this situation exists when it's in my reality. Until a majority of these people have EVs we don't even need to discuss those for whom a conventional car or plugin hybrid are a better option, why are we still fixated on those situations?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 15, 2018, 12:06:43 am
It should be an obvious point that even in a country that has only 10% of  the population living in the suburbs or rural areas (and hence have private parking) - those 10% are going to account for far greater than 10% of auto miles/kilometers driven. 

Those who live in highly populated cities tend to walk or use public transportation often (a good thing).  And those in densly populated cities who do own cars are likely to drive far less than suburb/country dwellers.
No. In the NL suburbs are also densely populated.
Are you seriously arguing that people who have homes with private parking do not drive any more on average than those who don't?
There are two categories of people with private parking spaces in the NL:
1) People with free standing homes are usually rich enough to buy a home close to their company so they don't need to travel far to work.
2) People who have the car parked in the garden of their townhouses (they got suckered into buying a house without a public parking space).
Either way neither have a reason to travel shorter or longer based on what kind of home they have. Keep in mind that the NL is anything unlike the US. A one hour drive gets you (literally) halfway through the country.

You are generalizing your experience in the NL which is a very small country. It is not typical of Europe in general (I know from first hand experience).  And of course it is not typical of many other places in the world besides Europe and the USA. 

The point stands: Those who have private parking available will on average drive much more than those who live in densely populated areas and do not.

Also - in general,  being rural does not mean one would have range anxiety. For example, I live in a rural area but my daily work commute is 12 miles round trip.  The closest large city - Seattle - is  60 miles drive away.  There are literally millions of people living in rural locations that are within 100 miles of Seattle.   I know from first hand experience, the same is true for many rural areas in the US, Canada, and throughout Europe.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 12:14:43 am
There are huge numbers of people living in suburbs with private parking that are not exactly rural. I can look out my window and see the neighbor's EV parked in their driveway plugged in right now, it's literally right outside, they drive it to work every day, it's so strange to have people denying that this situation exists when it's in my reality.
Nobody is denying that such a situation can exist somewhere. But it isn't a defacto standard. If I look out of my window I see no EVs at all in the entire street.

The point stands: Those who have private parking available will on average drive much more than those who live in densely populated areas and do not.
Without numbers to back it up this is just your opinion. I see no reason why a group of people with their cars parked on their driveway or a group of people with their cars parked in public parking spaces (IOW along the street) should drive a different distances. There is no logic to that.

Besides that I'm not projecting the situation in the NL. Look at the population density of Europe and you'll see several very large areas with high densities: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Europe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Europe)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 15, 2018, 12:20:07 am
There are miniature gas turbine generators available, that are suitcase sized and have power in 100 kW range... Way more than enough...

Mazda is doing a small rotary engine as a range extender, but you'll probably get screwed on subsidies here if you actually buy it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 15, 2018, 12:24:21 am

The point stands: Those who have private parking available will on average drive much more than those who live in densely populated areas and do not.
Without numbers to back it up this is just your opinion. I see no reason why a group of people with their cars on their driveway or a group of people with their cars parked in public parking spaces (IOW along the street) should drive a different distances. There is no logic to that.

Here is the obvious logical point which you keep doing contortions to avoid:

People who live in densely populated areas drive on average much less than those who live in typical (not NL dense) suburbs or rural areas.

Add:  A quick google search gives  this hard data (http://www.wstc.wa.gov/StatewideTransportationSystem/documents/2014_RUCFleetJunesurvey_Report_000.pdf) for my state of Washington:

"Residents in Rural areas drive the most: 22,243 miles per year for the
average household, followed by Suburban households (18,368). Residents
in Urban areas drive the least: 13,206 miles for the average household"
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 15, 2018, 12:32:18 am
Besides that I'm not projecting the situation in the NL.

You absolutely are. It has nothing to do with the fact that many parts of Europe have high population density. Many parts of the US do as well. It has to do with your generalizing and implying that because a typical NL suburb in your experience does not have private parking this is true througout Europe. It is not  - based on my first hand experience in several European countries.

All one has to do is use Google maps or do a Google search of UK suburbs or French suburbs or German suburbs to see photos and see for oneself.

BTW - I just used Google maps to look at suburbs around Amsterdam and apparently your assertion is not universally true in the NL.  Many  houses with private parking.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 12:43:08 am
If charging an EV at home would be so easy in the NL then why are only 0.29% of the cars EVs? Numbers talk... A single observation not so much.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 05:17:37 am
Pretty compelling evidence about EV cars in our future. Facts are well researched.

https://youtu.be/ns_0UTOc6X4

https://youtu.be/jntsT0BdxDw

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 15, 2018, 05:17:56 am
Sad truth is that you cannot extrapolate any conclusion from existing EV ownership. Current EV owners are enthusiasts and those that are lucky to be in position to be able to afford and operate EV.
They are more anomaly than something that can be used to extract plans how to go forward.

As you yourself say topic was "mainstream use of EV". Not so soon, not until infrastructure is built. And that is something that will be really hard somewhere and not so much somewhere else..
The question, in my opinion, is if the reason most EV owners today are enthusiasts (I wouldn't call myself that, but I see your point) is for any real reason, or due to lack of information. Take the two biggest sellers of EVs in the US, Tesla and Chevy. Tesla almost single-handedly raised the level of awareness of EVs, but have a reputation of being very expensive. Chevy on the other hand built two superb cars, but did little to nothing to advertise them.

Infrastructure won't take off unless there's adoption, and adoption won't take off unless there's infrastructure. The usual short cut is government incentives, but I do think some evangelism can go a long way.

A lot of scattershot ideas with basically zero meat (private charger sharing, for example). The only half way reasonable one was DCFC (think ChaDeMo, not death cab for cuties...) on city properties and that hasn't happened. In fact, instead of requiring that apartment construction include EV charging in parking spaces (or at least wiring for it) they have now allowed apartments to be built with no parking at all. And the extent of their support is adding a handful of Level 2 chargers in random on-street places. (It's been shown that L2 chargers get approximately 1 use every two days, FAIL.).

That sucks, I was hoping for better results. As for L2 charging, I live in a medium sized city of 150,000 and all the city-owned parking structures have free L2 chargers, with free parking on Sundays. I get brunch and some shopping done for a couple of hours and get about $1 of free charging, or 45 miles added range. It's a nice incentive and the city probably made more money in taxes than they spent on my free charge. They are also providing subsidies to businesses that would like to install L2 and L3 chargers. Sadly, very few takers for L3 charging so far.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 15, 2018, 05:57:54 am
If charging an EV at home would be so easy in the NL then why are only 0.29% of the cars EVs? Numbers talk... A single observation not so much.

Perhaps there are a lot of guys like you who have a deep emotionally based belief that they won't work, aren't easy, etc?

I know people who flat out insist that LED bulbs don't save money compared to old fashioned incandescent lamps, refute this and they'll spout off edge cases that LED bulbs won't work well with, change the subject, deflect, bring up the same edge cases over and over again, despite the fact that almost every light in my house has been LED for years. Buuut but but they won't work in an oven! Ok yeah, sure, that's why I have an incandescent bulb in my oven, so what? It's the same attitude. It's a religious belief of sorts, not possible to sway with logic or fact.

10 years ago I think it would be generous to estimate that 0.29% of domestic lighting was LED, "numbers talk" so that means that LEDs are completely unsuitable for lighting obviously doesn't it? Well except that clearly this isn't the case because at least out here they have caught on big and are now widely available and widely used. Doesn't stop a certain type of person from hoarding old fashioned incandescent bulbs because they believe them to be cheaper but whatever. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 15, 2018, 06:02:15 am
While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.
I don't know which parts of the UK you went to, but off street parking is only available for a small percentage of UK homes.

I went to Manchester, there were suburbs there not unlike the suburbs here. Smaller, flatter, a lot fewer trees, the houses were overwhelmingly made of brick rather than wood and people drove on the "wrong" side of the road but otherwise it felt not entirely unfamiliar. I'm sure the numbers are available if one was inclined to look them up, and I'd be shocked it more than 5% of the people for whom an EV would be a good match already have one, which means there's a huge potential market that has not been saturated.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 15, 2018, 07:56:25 am
The UK has pledged to ban the sale of new ICE only cars by 2030 (IIRC).  Given the mentioned issues of charging a large number of those will be ICE charged hybrids.

Also, wanted to mention, I watched "10 Billion" last night.  Figures from think tanks suggest that our global population will be at least 10 billion and our energy demands will be doubled by 2050.  That will require something like 23,000 nuclear power plants to be built or 40,000 coal/oil plants.  Depressingly the hard knock truth summary the film gives is "We are fucked.", EVs et. al. are just token gestures because the scale and momentum of the problem will require a LOT more to fix.  Renewables just isn't going to expand fast enough or even be all that practical on a large scale, as large as we need to get off fossil fuels.  Not to mention there are still trillions and trillions of dollars of fossil fuels to be extracted and more is found every day.  Who honestly believes that big oil will stop and leave that money in the ground?

The only advice the think tanks can give is:  Consume less.  Less energy, less food, less stuff and have less kids.... or we are fucked.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 15, 2018, 11:26:16 am
While I'm not as worldly as some, I have traveled to much of the two Western provinces of Canada, and I've been to the UK and in both places I saw a very similar situation to home, mostly houses with driveways and/or garages. The UK was the most different as a large number of the houses were duplexes and of course much smaller than the houses I'm used to but houses none the less with private parking.
I don't know which parts of the UK you went to, but off street parking is only available for a small percentage of UK homes.

I went to Manchester, there were suburbs there not unlike the suburbs here. Smaller, flatter, a lot fewer trees, the houses were overwhelmingly made of brick rather than wood and people drove on the "wrong" side of the road but otherwise it felt not entirely unfamiliar. I'm sure the numbers are available if one was inclined to look them up, and I'd be shocked it more than 5% of the people for whom an EV would be a good match already have one, which means there's a huge potential market that has not been saturated.
Sure, Manchester has affluent suburbs like Woodford which are very open, with reasonably large front gardens and driveways for most houses. That represents a few percent of the houses in Manchester.

If you consider the market by numbers, there are certainly still plenty of opportunities to sell electric cars to people with off road parking. If you consider the market by the percentage needed to make a significant difference to the environment in the UK (i.e. to make a useful change), things are more problematic.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 12:05:53 pm
The UK has pledged to ban the sale of new ICE only cars by 2030 (IIRC).  Given the mentioned issues of charging a large number of those will be ICE charged hybrids.
It won't be the first time a government changes their heading if an idea turns out to be not that good after a while. With diesel-gate fresh in mind politicians are likely to pitch all kind of ideas to make them look good. 2030 is still far away.
Quote
Renewables just isn't going to expand fast enough or even be all that practical on a large scale, as large as we need to get off fossil fuels.  Not to mention there are still trillions and trillions of dollars of fossil fuels to be extracted and more is found every day.  Who honestly believes that big oil will stop and leave that money in the ground?
The idea seems to be to catch CO2 at power plants and store it underground. I'm principally against that because putting large amounts of CO2 in the ground creates toxic gas pockets (a few % of CO2 is enough to kill you) which stay dangerous forever (forever as in until the earth falls apart). Compared to that even storing radioactive material is a more sensible bad idea because radioactive material will stop radiating at some point in time.

Consuming less is a good idea and I think most countries got the message now. Unfortunately Mr Trump has set the US back a couple of decades by turning the EPA into the IPA (industy protection agency). Since the US is a major contributor to CO2 emissions (the world's second largest in absolute numbers) that is a real problem for the world.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 15, 2018, 12:23:41 pm
The UK has pledged to ban the sale of new ICE only cars by 2030 (IIRC).  Given the mentioned issues of charging a large number of those will be ICE charged hybrids.
It won't be the first time a government changes their heading if an idea turns out to be not that good after a while. With diesel-gate fresh in mind politicians are likely to pitch all kind of ideas to make them look good. 2030 is still far away.
Quote
The whole 2030 thing in the UK is a knee jerk reaction. The UK heavily promoted the lower CO2 output of diesels, to the extent that many luxury cars were not even offered with a gasoline engine option in the UK. Now they are waking up to the higher NOx levels this has caused in cities, they are suddenly turning against diesels. Taxation rules no longer favour them, and gasoline versions of luxury cars are being launched. Its a typical dumb populist move. The majority of the NOx comes from older diesels, even though most of the Euro 6 ones are obviously cheating to some extent. Instead of tightening up on the diesel emissions, diesels have suddenly become the bad guys, and the higher CO2 from petrol engines is no longer the hot topic of the week.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 05:00:15 pm
I have an electric cars and it seems to me it’s the bickering between the electric car manufactures on charging stations types and plugs which is impeding the adaptation of electric cars.

I just drove to a very large mega shopping cente near Palm Springs California.  There are over 200 stores and they advertise free car charging for electric cars while shopping.

Pulled in hoping to get a charge and some shopping done.  Took me 20 minutes to find the charging station.  No one knew where the charging station was.  Finally found it....  There were only two spaces for electric cars yest ona busy weekend this mall would see well over 10,000 shoppers.

Had to wait for one of the two spaces, finally was able to get a space.  Pulled in, only to find the charging station plug does not work with a Chevy. 

As a consumer this is BS.  Why isn’t there just one standard plug for electric cars? So I called the phone number on the chargaing station to see where the nearest Chevy charger was.  It was over 2 miles away at a hotel.  I was told to part there and take a Taxi or maybe a Uber to get to and from the shopping center.

So here you folks are talking about infrastructure, the electric car companies are fighting over what infrastructure to install.  I’m a correct that Tesla makes it so only Tesla cars car be charged in Tesla Chargers?  And then aren’t there three other types of electric car plugs which are all different?

Yes it’s the chicken and egg question, but if the electric car companies can’t agree on what type of plug to use I can see why there’s reluctance to install electric car infrastructure.  What happens if Tesla goes out of business or changes the plug?  Same question about Chevy?  Ever see the GM Sequel?
 
GM vice-chairman Bob Lutz said in a TED talk Cheverlot GM produce hydrogen powered Sequels.  Not sure what happened by after this announcement was made unveiled Volt in 2008 instead of hydrogen powered cars.

Back to the chicken and the egg.  What’s a city/business/home owner to do?  Do you install hydrogen, natural gas or electric refueling station.  If you install electric which plug do you support?  Or do you support all?  And then what happens if the industry/technology changes the plug?  Or one of the car companies goes out of business/stops making electric cars a lot of money would have be wasted on an infrastructure which might never be used. 

Heck even for my home charger I have to select between 6 different AC plugs configurations.  Why are there no standards in the electric car industry?  Or if there are, why aren’t they being followed?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 05:13:49 pm
Had to wait for one of the two spaces, finally was able to get a space.  Pulled in, only to find the charging station plug does not work with a Chevy. 

As a consumer this is BS.  Why isn’t there just one standard plug for electric cars? So I called the phone number on the chargaing station to see where the nearest Chevy charger was.  It was over 2 miles away at a hotel.  I was told to part there and take a Taxi or maybe a Uber to get to and from the shopping center.

So here you folks are talking about infrastructure, the electric car companies are fighting over what infrastructure to install.  I’m a correct that Tesla makes it so only Tesla cars car be charged in Tesla Chargers?  And then aren’t there three other types of electric car plugs which are all different?
That is the problem with being an early adopter. You get to deal with all the sh*t and it will get much worse before getting better (I was an early adopter of DSL internet...). In order to make EVs mainstream they'll have to charge faster which will require a totally different plug. AFAIK the reason Tesla is incompatible is not because they want to but because they want to be able to charge at higher speeds which isn't possible with the standard plugs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 05:14:45 pm
Another reason in the US electric cars can be a pain in the ass.  (I’d like to know if this is happening in other countries......  People are ass-holes.  I pulled into a hotel which had 4 EV charging station parking spaces.  Checked in and asked where the EV chargaing parking spaces were.  I was told they were all filled.  Really?  I looked out the window and yup every space was filled.  But not with EV cars, they were filled with internal combustion vehicle cars.  Not one could be charged.  The hotel clerk told me employees with park in the EV space because the parking space was closer to the hotel.

I could tell she wasn’t too happy about me having a EV vehicle.  She said by the time I I took my bags to my room she would have her car moved so I could charge my car.

What’s with people.  These four spaces were clearly marked and reserved for EV charging.  So why do ICE drivers think they can park in EV spaces?  What jerks.

But then I was thinking what if there were five guests who had EVs at this hotel which had only four spaces.  Would one of the four of us get a call at 3:00 in the morning telling us our car was charged and we would he to move it so another guest could get charged?

What’s the etiquette here?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 05:22:26 pm
Had to wait for one of the two spaces, finally was able to get a space.  Pulled in, only to find the charging station plug does not work with a Chevy. 

As a consumer this is BS.  Why isn’t there just one standard plug for electric cars? So I called the phone number on the chargaing station to see where the nearest Chevy charger was.  It was over 2 miles away at a hotel.  I was told to part there and take a Taxi or maybe a Uber to get to and from the shopping center.

So here you folks are talking about infrastructure, the electric car companies are fighting over what infrastructure to install.  I’m a correct that Tesla makes it so only Tesla cars car be charged in Tesla Chargers?  And then aren’t there three other types of electric car plugs which are all different?
That is the problem with being an early adopter. You get to deal with all the sh*t and it will get much worse before getting better (I was an early adopter of DSL internet...). In order to make EVs mainstream they'll have to charge faster which will require a totally different plug. AFAIK the reason Tesla is incompatible is not because they want to but because they want to be able to charge at higher speeds which isn't possible with the standard plugs.

So what prevents them from installing the other plugs?   Which I suspect would draw less current?  Crap why can’t the electric car industry charger manufactures make public chargers with all the different plug types?

Or is there a reason Chevy and all of the other EV car manufactures can’t use the Tesla plug?  Or does Tesla charge an enormous royalty fee?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 05:52:08 pm
Another reason EV cars won’t become mainstream is because some the them are assholes too.  I recently drove to a supermarket where they had a couple of EV charging spaces.  Signs around on on the EV charging stations clearly state, “Free EV car charging only while shopping at “Good Food” supermarket.

Similar to my EV parking spaces at hotels being parked in by ICE drivers, the EV charging spaces were being used by people working out in a gym across the street and others not shopping at the market wanting a free charge.  What’s wrong with these people?  If they did this at a gas station it would be called stealing.  But for some reason EV drivers feel they can take energy from businesses for free.

I asked an employee about it, and was told it’s turning into a big problem.  As people find businesses who have free charging they are taking advantage and “stealing” the power without shopping our supporting the business that’s giving them the “free” electricty.

The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.

In this case it’s EV drivers who are preventing the adoption of EV vehicles and installation of charging stations.
 



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 15, 2018, 06:01:54 pm
Another reason EV cars won’t become mainstream is because some the them are assholes too.  I recently drove to a supermarket where they had a couple of EV charging spaces.  Signs around on on the EV charging stations clearly state, “Free EV car charging only while shopping at “Good Food” supermarket.

Similar to my EV parking spaces at hotels being parked in by ICE drivers, the EV charging spaces were being used by people working out in a gym across the street and others not shopping at the market wanting a free charge.  What’s wrong with these people?  If they did this at a gas station it would be called stealing.  But for some reason EV drivers feel they can take energy from businesses for free.

I asked an employee about it, and was told it’s turning into a big problem.  As people find businesses who have free charging they are taking advantage and “stealing” the power without shopping our supporting the business that’s giving them the “free” electricty.

The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.

In this case it’s EV drivers who are preventing the adoption of EV vehicles and installation of charging stations.
There appears to be a straightforward long term solution for this. Stores could operate these chargers as paid for chargers, and give drivers a token at the checkout to get their charge for free.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 15, 2018, 06:20:49 pm
What’s with people.  These four spaces were clearly marked and reserved for EV charging.  So why do ICE drivers think they can park in EV spaces?  What jerks.

But then I was thinking what if there were five guests who had EVs at this hotel which had only four spaces.  Would one of the four of us get a call at 3:00 in the morning telling us our car was charged and we would he to move it so another guest could get charged?

What’s the etiquette here?

So for one thing, EV drivers are seen as 'smug' (one comment earlier in this thread), 'entitled', 'mooching off free stuff', etc., and people use that notion to justify parking an ICE car in an EV parking spot. Somehow that's seen as 'taking them down a notch'. I've heard my wife's own mother saying we're defrauding our city by charging for free.

As for charging etiquette, there aren't really any 'rules' yet but I did get a card with my home charger that you attach to the charging cord. One side indicates that you are 'opportunity charging', and lists a phone number to call in case you really need the spot. The other side indicates that I really need the charge. So far, nobody has called me to ask for my spot yet.

Commercial charging providers like Chargepoint can partner with multiple businesses so that the cost of operation is split. This neatly solves the common parking lot problem. Even when the charging is free, Chargepoint requires me to swipe an RFID to unlock the charge cable. I suppose they could add a feature where one would need to pay for the charge unless a business 'validates' (similar to parking) the charge session.

All EVs sold in the US have an SAE J1772 socket for level 2 charging. The differences are for level 3, where Tesla has their own proprietary plug. Many Japanese vendors use the CHAdeMO plug, everyone else (including Chevy) use the J1772 combo plug that includes two extra pins for DC charging. I'm guessing Tesla's reason for a proprietary plug is to prevent non-Tesla drivers from charging for free at Supercharger stations. So far, all the DC fast charge stations I've been to have both CHAdeMO and SAE combo plugs.

European EVs use the IEC type-2 connector, which can provide 3-phase power. This uses the same signaling as the single-phase J1772 socket, so a passive adapter can be used. CHAdeMO uses CAN bus for signaling, so one can't devise a passive adapter plug. Not sure what Tesla uses for signaling.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 06:22:34 pm
Another reason EV cars won’t become mainstream is because some the them are assholes too.  I recently drove to a supermarket where they had a couple of EV charging spaces.  Signs around on on the EV charging stations clearly state, “Free EV car charging only while shopping at “Good Food” supermarket.

Similar to my EV parking spaces at hotels being parked in by ICE drivers, the EV charging spaces were being used by people working out in a gym across the street and others not shopping at the market wanting a free charge.  What’s wrong with these people?  If they did this at a gas station it would be called stealing.  But for some reason EV drivers feel they can take energy from businesses for free.

I asked an employee about it, and was told it’s turning into a big problem.  As people find businesses who have free charging they are taking advantage and “stealing” the power without shopping our supporting the business that’s giving them the “free” electricty.

The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.

In this case it’s EV drivers who are preventing the adoption of EV vehicles and installation of charging stations.
There appears to be a straightforward long term solution for this. Stores could operate these chargers as paid for chargers, and give drivers a token at the checkout to get their charge for free.

Yes they could.  But it's at an additional expense.  Yes it can be done but do you know of any commercial chargers for sale today whcih have that feature?  Or any businees who are using tokens right now?  I don't.  All fthe chargers I have seen do aren't confgured for taking tokens.  I suspect it would be very expensive to modify the existing charging stations to take tokens.  And then ther'e the cost of the ongoing maintance. 

If I were a business ower I think I would really think twice about installing and maintaing a charging station.

This is an example of the chicken and the egg where the chicken destory the egg and wonders why there aren't more chickens around.










Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 15, 2018, 06:28:11 pm
Another reason EV cars won’t become mainstream is because some the them are assholes too.  I recently drove to a supermarket where they had a couple of EV charging spaces.  Signs around on on the EV charging stations clearly state, “Free EV car charging only while shopping at “Good Food” supermarket.

Similar to my EV parking spaces at hotels being parked in by ICE drivers, the EV charging spaces were being used by people working out in a gym across the street and others not shopping at the market wanting a free charge.  What’s wrong with these people?  If they did this at a gas station it would be called stealing.  But for some reason EV drivers feel they can take energy from businesses for free.

I asked an employee about it, and was told it’s turning into a big problem.  As people find businesses who have free charging they are taking advantage and “stealing” the power without shopping our supporting the business that’s giving them the “free” electricty.

The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.

In this case it’s EV drivers who are preventing the adoption of EV vehicles and installation of charging stations.
There appears to be a straightforward long term solution for this. Stores could operate these chargers as paid for chargers, and give drivers a token at the checkout to get their charge for free.

Yes they could.  But it's at an additional expense.  Yes it can be done but do you know of any commercial chargers for sale today whcih have that feature?  Or any businees who are using tokens right now?  I don't.  All fthe chargers I have seen do aren't confgured for taking tokens.  I suspect it would be very expensive to modify the existing charging stations to take tokens.  And then ther'e the cost of the ongoing maintance. 

If I were a business ower I think I would really think twice about installing and maintaing a charging station.

This is an example of the chicken and the egg where the chicken destory the egg and wonders why there aren't more chickens around.
The commercial chargers I have seen can interact with people's phones. They allow for "clubs", which either don't get charged, or have special rates. It seems unlikely they haven't provided for one off free charges through people's phones, even if they have no support for token schemes.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 06:32:35 pm
What’s with people.  These four spaces were clearly marked and reserved for EV charging.  So why do ICE drivers think they can park in EV spaces?  What jerks.

But then I was thinking what if there were five guests who had EVs at this hotel which had only four spaces.  Would one of the four of us get a call at 3:00 in the morning telling us our car was charged and we would he to move it so another guest could get charged?

What’s the etiquette here?

So for one thing, EV drivers are seen as 'smug' (one comment earlier in this thread), 'entitled', 'mooching off free stuff', etc., and people use that notion to justify parking an ICE car in an EV parking spot. Somehow that's seen as 'taking them down a notch'. I've heard my wife's own mother saying we're defrauding our city by charging for free.

As for charging etiquette, there aren't really any 'rules' yet but I did get a card with my home charger that you attach to the charging cord. One side indicates that you are 'opportunity charging', and lists a phone number to call in case you really need the spot. The other side indicates that I really need the charge. So far, nobody has called me to ask for my spot yet.

Commercial charging providers like Chargepoint can partner with multiple businesses so that the cost of operation is split. This neatly solves the common parking lot problem. Even when the charging is free, Chargepoint requires me to swipe an RFID to unlock the charge cable. I suppose they could add a feature where one would need to pay for the charge unless a business 'validates' (similar to parking) the charge session.

All EVs sold in the US have an SAE J1772 socket for level 2 charging. The differences are for level 3, where Tesla has their own proprietary plug. Many Japanese vendors use the CHAdeMO plug, everyone else (including Chevy) use the J1772 combo plug that includes two extra pins for DC charging. I'm guessing Tesla's reason for a proprietary plug is to prevent non-Tesla drivers from charging for free at Supercharger stations. So far, all the DC fast charge stations I've been to have both CHAdeMO and SAE combo plugs.

European EVs use the IEC type-2 connector, which can provide 3-phase power. This uses the same signaling as the single-phase J1772 socket, so a passive adapter can be used. CHAdeMO uses CAN bus for signaling, so one can't devise a passive adapter plug. Not sure what Tesla uses for signaling.


So there are four plugs in use.  That's crazy.  Seems to me when I was at the shopping center there were there were two plugs and neither fit Chevy.  I'm sure this will get worked out with EV companies buying EV companies and and EV compnaies going bankrupt.  But heres the thing...  An ICE has one type of nozlle and I'm assuming that nozzle is exactly the same no mater where one is the world.  I can always get chemical energy delivered from the source to my vehicle.  But when it comes to EVs different story.  The electrical energy can be there in the cable, but due to the differnces in adaptors I might not be able to get that energy into my car eventhough it's right there.





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 15, 2018, 06:43:37 pm
Well actually there are two types of nozzles and no fewer than five different kinds of fuel. You can also accidentally fill your car with the wrong one and destroy the engine.  :D

Yeah there's a bit hyperbole and pedantry, but as I mentioned in my post, it really isn't such a big deal particularly for L2 charging.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 06:47:53 pm
Another reason EV cars won’t become mainstream is because some the them are assholes too.  I recently drove to a supermarket where they had a couple of EV charging spaces.  Signs around on on the EV charging stations clearly state, “Free EV car charging only while shopping at “Good Food” supermarket.

Similar to my EV parking spaces at hotels being parked in by ICE drivers, the EV charging spaces were being used by people working out in a gym across the street and others not shopping at the market wanting a free charge.  What’s wrong with these people?  If they did this at a gas station it would be called stealing.  But for some reason EV drivers feel they can take energy from businesses for free.

I asked an employee about it, and was told it’s turning into a big problem.  As people find businesses who have free charging they are taking advantage and “stealing” the power without shopping our supporting the business that’s giving them the “free” electricty.

The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.

In this case it’s EV drivers who are preventing the adoption of EV vehicles and installation of charging stations.
There appears to be a straightforward long term solution for this. Stores could operate these chargers as paid for chargers, and give drivers a token at the checkout to get their charge for free.

Yes they could.  But it's at an additional expense.  Yes it can be done but do you know of any commercial chargers for sale today whcih have that feature?  Or any businees who are using tokens right now?  I don't.  All fthe chargers I have seen do aren't confgured for taking tokens.  I suspect it would be very expensive to modify the existing charging stations to take tokens.  And then ther'e the cost of the ongoing maintance. 

If I were a business ower I think I would really think twice about installing and maintaing a charging station.

This is an example of the chicken and the egg where the chicken destory the egg and wonders why there aren't more chickens around.
The commercial chargers I have seen can interact with people's phones. They allow for "clubs", which either don't get charged, or have special rates. It seems unlikely they haven't provided for one off free charges through people's phones, even if they have no support for token schemes.

It's like the car and electrical industry of 100 years ago.  What do customers want.  When it comes to cars do they want External Combustion, Internal combustion or electric cars.  I think the thought at the time was External combustion would be the standard as the technology was established and had been around a long time.  The new comers were ICE and electric cars.  Completey untested and unknon technologies at the time.

And when it came to electrictiy would we use AC or DC?

All it's going to take are asshole EV drivers to keep stealing energy.  And asshole ICE drivers who park in EV spaces to not advance EV cars.  Who would buy an EV car if you can't charge it becaue some ICE car parked in the space?



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 07:02:18 pm
Well actually there are two types of nozzles and no fewer than five different kinds of fuel. You can also accidentally fill your car with the wrong one and destroy the engine.  :D

Yeah there's a bit hyperbole and pedantry, but as I mentioned in my post, it really isn't such a big deal particularly for L2 charging.

Yes but at least you can get the energy into the car's storage tank before you ruin the engine.

With the different plugs the electron are right there at the tip of the charging connector and can't be transferred to the car.



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 07:28:23 pm
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 15, 2018, 07:51:45 pm
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.
I think you'll need to provide a much better supporting argument for such an oddball position. The supermarket offers free charging to attract customers. That's a rational marketing expenditure. The customers can't get to use those chargers, because the supermarket has issues with managing their use. In those circumstances removing them and using the marketing budget somewhere else is a rational marketing decision. Using a scheme to tie free charging to purchases is a rational marketing decision. Paying for electricity, charging stations and parking spaces to assist the businesses across the road makes no sense at all. Its bad enough that its impractical in most locations to prevent your car park being filled with the cars of non-patrons. Paying to charge those cars is just adding insult to injury.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 08:14:16 pm
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.
I think you'll need to provide a much better supporting argument for such an oddball position. The supermarket offers free charging to attract customers. That's a rational marketing expenditure. The customers can't get to use those chargers, because the supermarket has issues with managing their use. In those circumstances removing them and using the marketing budget somewhere else is a rational marketing decision. Using a scheme to tie free charging to purchases is a rational marketing decision. Paying for electricity, charging stations and parking spaces to assist the businesses across the road makes no sense at all. Its bad enough that its impractical in most locations to prevent your car park being filled with the cars of non-patrons. Paying to charge those cars is just adding insult to injury.
Why is my statement oddball? You seem surprised that people are using a free charging point at a shop but don't visit that shop. That doesn't surprise me at all because that is basic human behaviour. As you wrote people park where there is space and that doesn't need to be a parking space alloted to a certain shop.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 15, 2018, 08:23:49 pm
Oddball or not, you need to back your statements up, else you're not much better than someone on a street corner wearing a sandwich board proclaiming that the end is near.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 08:32:31 pm
Oddball or not, you need to back your statements up, else you're not much better than someone on a street corner wearing a sandwich board proclaiming that the end is near.
I don't really see what needs to be backed up here. Again: if you put a free charger in a spot where everyone can use it then it will be used. If you only want certain people to use it then it needs some kind of access control mechanism. What is not to understand about that?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 15, 2018, 09:11:04 pm
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!'
That statement, for example.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 09:17:49 pm
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!'
That statement, for example.
Why else would a shop have a charging point??? Are they suddenly a gas station? It is added service like free candy for kids, free coffee, free parking space, free wifi, etc to look attractive.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 15, 2018, 09:48:50 pm
Still not seeing any evidence other than "it's obvious to me".
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 10:20:07 pm
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.

Yes marketing is suppose to attarck customers to shop at theeir store.  These people are taking advanatge of the store and stealing electricy to charge their car withoug even entering the store.

How long do you think a store is going to put up with people stealing from them?


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 10:42:15 pm
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!'
That statement, for example.
Why else would a shop have a charging point??? Are they suddenly a gas station? It is added service like free candy for kids, free coffee, free parking space, free wifi, etc to look attractive.


It is an addesd service for customers.  You appearing to be mixing up customers with freeloaders.  To get the free candy, free cofee or free parking space requires you to be on private property and in the store shopping.  As I stated there are signs saying "Free charging while shoping at the Good Food market".  There is no sign that says free chraging for everyone.   

Don't you think if you are a quest or customers who is on private property you are obligated to abide by the property owners posted rules?
Or are you one of those people who thinks just because someone has an EV they should be able to take electricity from anyone even why you don't have permission?  If so I would like to come over to your house and plug in when my power company is charging me $0.47 kWhr to charge my car.  I would much rather have you pay for the power then pay for it myself.

Seems simple to me.  If enough free loaders steal the electricity and don't shop in the store it will be hard for the store to justify continue offering the free charging and to install free charging at any of their other stores.  The point of marketing is to attract customers.  If customers arring and find the charging spaces full everytime becuase of the freeloaders then theere's no sence in shopping at the store is there.

So getting back to the original question, When will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?   One answer could be when EV owners stop taking advantage of the generosity of business that offer free charges by stealing their electricity.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 15, 2018, 11:23:53 pm
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.

Yes marketing is suppose to attarck customers to shop at theeir store.  These people are taking advanatge of the store and stealing electricy to charge their car withoug even entering the store.

How long do you think a store is going to put up with people stealing from them?
I'm wondering: do you ever use the toilet in a restaurant, cafe, gas station, etc without buying something? Or visit a shop, look at a product but end up buying it somewhere else?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 15, 2018, 11:45:51 pm
The guy told me the store will probably remove the EV charging stations as a result.  I’m sure this is not the only business this is happening to.  As word spreads of EV car drivers stealing electricty from businesses there will be fewer business interesting is installing EV chargers.
The shops have the charging points purely for marketing purposes. 'Look how green we are!' They shouldn't complain people don't pay for the electricity. That should come out of the marketing budget. Ofcourse like in any advertisement campaign some ads work and some ads don't. For the companies that put the charging points there it is all about market penetration to make sure they are ready when it is time to get the profits by having people to pay for charging.

Yes marketing is suppose to attarck customers to shop at theeir store.  These people are taking advanatge of the store and stealing electricy to charge their car withoug even entering the store.

How long do you think a store is going to put up with people stealing from them?
I'm wondering: do you ever use the toilet in a restaurant, cafe, gas station, etc without buying something? Or visit a shop, look at a product but end up buying it somewhere else?

Parking in an EV space for hours and using someone else’s electricty to charge an EV when there’s a sign that says “For Customers use Ony while shopping in the store” isn’t exactly the same thing as use the toilet in a restaurant, cafe, gas station, etc without buying something is it?  It would be more akin to taking a dump in the parking lot without even entering the store or offering to clean it up.  But takining a cup is a bodly function.  Charing an electric car for free is a luxury. 

Bottom line.  If people take you attitude and steal electricty to charger their EV, no one iOS going to offer free charging anymore. And there will be less charging stations.  Exactly opposite to spread the adoption of EV.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 12:11:30 am
And yet there is no difference between using the toilet without buying anything and charging an EV without buying anything. Both cost money to the owner so why should they (toilet or EV charger) be treated differently? IMHO it is just a matter of what you are used to to get for free.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 02:02:17 am
And yet there is no difference between using the toilet without buying anything and charging an EV without buying anything. Both cost money to the owner so why should they (toilet or EV charger) be treated differently? IMHO it is just a matter of what you are used to to get for free.

Really?  You don’t see the difference between a homeless person taking two hours in a business’s restroom vs. a customer who needs to use the restroom for a few minutes but can’t because the homeless guy is taking a bath in it.

You need to come to California.  Many businesses and customers of those business do not like it a freeloader is taking hogging the restroom for two hours so paying customers can’t use it.  Businesses here in California had signs saying restrooms are for customers only.   Just like the supermarket that had a sign saying EV charging is for customers only.

Non-customers abused the privilege so now many places which once had restrooms customers could use have closed them.  So now freeloaders and customers have no place to go.

Think about it for a moment if you had a shop with a restroom which was for customers only.  Would you like it if every time you or a paying customer needed to go there was a homeless person in it?

This is happening in California.  Cities are responding by installing port-a-potties for people for people to use.  And test the homeless who don’t pay any taxes either spend hours in them or in some cases have moved in and use it as their home.

Don’t you think business that get taken advantages of by EV drivers who just rip them off wlll like they did for restrooms just not offer them anymore?  With less EV charging stations there will be less places for EV driver to get a charge. 

You never answered my question.  Can I come over to your house an charge my car?  And at night don’t you leave some lights on?  Would you mind if some homeless people can and sat on your front poach to read the newspaper at night from your “free” light?






Well






Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 16, 2018, 06:37:00 am
If it's not so they can look "Green" why don't they offer free petrol/diesel for customers?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 09:16:05 am
And yet there is no difference between using the toilet without buying anything and charging an EV without buying anything. Both cost money to the owner so why should they (toilet or EV charger) be treated differently? IMHO it is just a matter of what you are used to to get for free.
Really?  You don’t see the difference between a homeless person taking two hours in a business’s restroom vs. a customer who needs to use the restroom for a few minutes but can’t because the homeless guy is taking a bath in it.
From your previous post I got the impression that it is OK for you to use restroom without buying something but it is not OK to charge an EV without buying something. Perhaps that impression is wrong.

Sure the homeless guy taking a bath is similar to someone leaving the EV there to charge all day and are obviously freeloading (and shops should take action). But if you look at using the restroom for a couple of minutes and parking for (say) an hour then these situations are quite normal behaviour.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 16, 2018, 11:11:32 am
And yet there is no difference between using the toilet without buying anything and charging an EV without buying anything. Both cost money to the owner so why should they (toilet or EV charger) be treated differently? IMHO it is just a matter of what you are used to to get for free.
Really?  You don’t see the difference between a homeless person taking two hours in a business’s restroom vs. a customer who needs to use the restroom for a few minutes but can’t because the homeless guy is taking a bath in it.
From your previous post I got the impression that it is OK for you to use restroom without buying something but it is not OK to charge an EV without buying something. Perhaps that impression is wrong.

There's a tiny difference: People don't lock the toilet door from the outside then go off to the gym for a couple of hours.

(although there are other ways to leave a restroom unusable)

Solution: Smarter chargers.

Make all cars have an ID which they need to transmit to the charger (they probably already do) and make it easy for stores to ban certain cars from chargers (eg. if you don't scan a QR code from the store before unplugging your car or if you leave it there for much longer than the time it takes to go to the store and back).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 16, 2018, 11:59:23 am
A local Asda had to start charging for parking because the store is close to the train station, so commuters filled it at 8am and kept it full till 6pm.

So they charge for parking, however on checking out at the till they ask you for the parking ticket which they refund.

if they put a QR code on the parking ticket it might discourage people from charging without using the shop.

Of course over here (Northern Ireland) their penalty charges for parking on their land cannot be up held.  As opposed to the rest of the UK the implied contract entered into by parking on private land has to be with an named individual, not an entity like "Registered Keeper", the later is all they can get from the number plate, so courts do not accept disputes over failure to pay them unless they have evidence as to who was driving the car at the time the contract was entered into.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 16, 2018, 07:29:49 pm
<snipped out ICEing description>
What’s the etiquette here?
In a number of states (WA and CA, maybe others), you will get a fine for parking in EV charging slots. $124 in WA. Enforcement requires reporting them which I do though it seems like it's about 50/50 that a cop will show up. If it's not a public lot, a lot of us complain to the management. In a number of places that has resulted in traffic cones being put in the charging spaces while not in use.  Works surprisingly well.  A number of EV owners carry pre-printed notes to put on ICEers' cars. We also have several Facebook groups where pictures of the ICEer cars with license plate showing get posted. Doubt it does much other than keep us EVers agitated and vigilant! :-)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 08:18:40 pm
Quote
Electricity distribution networks in Europe run at well below their full potential [...]. The findings show that the unused network capacity could be utilised for charging electric vehicles with little or no need for additional capacity. [...] All consumers, not just those with EVs, would benefit from spreading the costs of existing infrastructure over more load and minimising risky new investment. [...] The results suggest that these systems are operating at 50-70% of their potential. To place this in perspective, all current light-duty vehicles could be electrified with little or no need for additional network capacity.

http://energypost.eu/new-research-europes-electricity-networks-are-underused-and-have-ample-capacity-to-cope-with-electrification-of-cars/ (http://energypost.eu/new-research-europes-electricity-networks-are-underused-and-have-ample-capacity-to-cope-with-electrification-of-cars/)
If you have actually read the article it says that for this to work the EV's charging times would need to be regulated from a central point. Actually the article supports the point made earlier (complete with numbers so no guessing)  that electrical distribution grids are not up to the task of charging large amounts of EVs in their current state:


Shifting EV charging to periods when existing resources are readily available would keep incremental investment in infrastructure to a minimum

An article in the Dutch news said that the grid needs to be expanded to deal with the electricity from solar panels. That sounds way more like real news to me.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 08:27:33 pm
<snipped out ICEing description>
What’s the etiquette here?
In a number of states (WA and CA, maybe others), you will get a fine for parking in EV charging slots. $124 in WA. Enforcement requires reporting them which I do though it seems like it's about 50/50 that a cop will show up. If it's not a public lot, a lot of us complain to the management. In a number of places that has resulted in traffic cones being put in the charging spaces while not in use.  Works surprisingly well.  A number of EV owners carry pre-printed notes to put on ICEers' cars. We also have several Facebook groups where pictures of the ICEer cars with license plate showing get posted. Doubt it does much other than keep us EVers agitated and vigilant! :-)

Funny you mention Wa.  I was just there last month for 5 days.  There was construction on the street and it was lined with no parking/stopping any time  / tow away signs.  Traffic was a mess and the police were called every day.  And every day they refused to cite or tow the cars which were illegally parked.

EV car owners get picked on by ICE drivers.  I’ve heard cases of charger plugs getting cut off.  And now we have EV car owners who are taking advantage and running charging for other EV car owners.

When will EV cars become main stream?  When EV car owners stop taking advantage of the business who are trying to help them.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 16, 2018, 09:14:23 pm
On the subject of charging standards. There are effectively 4 "standards": Tesla, ChaDeMo, CCS and J1772 (Level 2). There are others but not a lot of backing. There is a Chinese standard as well though I don't know what's going on with it. And of course, most EVs have adapters that allow use of standard electrical outlets.

Telsa, being very early had no agreed upon standard for DC charging so they created their own.  The manufacturer standards bodies deliberately ignored Tesla and created two competing ones - CCS and ChaDeMo.  Tesla has an adaptor for chademo and J1772. I believe one for CCS is on the way.  The problem with CCS in the US is a large percentage are at auto-dealers which is about the last place anyone would want to go to charge their car.  This is to a lesser extent also true of chademo.  There does seem to be a trend towards dual CCS/chademo chargers, so the issue of finding a compatible charger may go away. What I find hilarious is that chademo and ccs are big clunky industrial looking connectors while tesla is small and sleek clearly designed for the consumer. It kind of looks like a gas/petrol nozzle. I have no idea who or what was the target user of chademo or ccs.

What I also find striking is that only Tesla has a planned out charging network.  I believe this is one of the reasons Tesla still outsells other battery only EVs.

Also, you should use the PlugShare ap on your smart phone to find a compatible charger.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 16, 2018, 09:23:11 pm
If BetaMax/VHS is anything to go by, they will pick the cheapest, most profitably to manufacture, but worst functional version and stick with it.  So put your bets on the worst one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 16, 2018, 09:41:15 pm
On the subject of charging standards. There are effectively 4 "standards": Tesla, ChaDeMo, CCS and J1772 (Level 2). There are others but not a lot of backing. There is a Chinese standard as well though I don't know what's going on with it. And of course, most EVs have adapters that allow use of standard electrical outlets.

Telsa, being very early had no agreed upon standard for DC charging so they created their own.  The manufacturer standards bodies deliberately ignored Tesla and created two competing ones - CCS and ChaDeMo.  Tesla has an adaptor for chademo and J1772. I believe one for CCS is on the way.  The problem with CCS in the US is a large percentage are at auto-dealers which is about the last place anyone would want to go to charge their car.  This is to a lesser extent also true of chademo.  There does seem to be a trend towards dual CCS/chademo chargers, so the issue of finding a compatible charger may go away. What I find hilarious is that chademo and ccs are big clunky industrial looking connectors while tesla is small and sleek clearly designed for the consumer. It kind of looks like a gas/petrol nozzle. I have no idea who or what was the target user of chademo or ccs.

What I also find striking is that only Tesla has a planned out charging network.  I believe this is one of the reasons Tesla still outsells other battery only EVs.

Also, you should use the PlugShare ap on your smart phone to find a compatible charger.

Thanks, this is very helpful. 

I have and use PlugShare.  I'd give it 2.5 stars.  The informaiton is not always correct and lots of key information is missing.  And I don't think PugShare has all charging stations so that mean one has to use multiple apps.....  Oh and that's another reason EV cars won't be mainstream, you have to have a smartphone.  And it can't be just any smartphone either.  The smartphone has to be running the OS the app was writen for.

One would think this would be a perfect add on for Google Maps.


If I have a Volt, can I get one of those adapters which would allow me to use a Tesla carging station?









Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 16, 2018, 10:09:08 pm
Wow, reading this thread you would think there is a war going out there. People stealing electricity, anti EVers vandalizing infrastructure,...

That is not even close to what I see. Both my wife and I drive EVs - I've had mine since 2013 and She got hers late 2016.  Between the two of us, we've had maybe 3 incidents and they were minor comments. Contrast that with a huge number of very positive comments and lots of questions. I've never seen or heard of a charger that was vandalized, never had violence threatened. The only issue is ICEing chargers that I pointed out earlier and it's not a huge issue in general.  Only at poorly sited chargers.

As to stealing electricity, most, if not all, of the "customer use only" chargers for specific businesses I'm familiar with would be very hard to freeload on. They are usually at hotels or restaurants in a location such that it would be pretty obvious.  Plus most lots have signs that say "customer use only, all others towed" or similar. Those businesses see EVers as a very desirable demographic.  It's definitely not greenwashing because for the most part they don't advertise it. There are lots of shopping centers in the US that have chargers. Someone could freeload on those but we aren't talking about a lot of money here.  My Tesla max charge is 85 KWh.  At the average national rate, that's a bit over $9 and 4 hrs to fully charge on the typical free charger. Explain to me why there would be hordes of freeloaders? It would be incredibly inconvenient to drive to the mall, plug in and wait around for hours (not purchasing any goods or services) just to get a couple of dollars worth of free power. That dog don't hunt.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 16, 2018, 10:10:37 pm
What I also find striking is that only Tesla has a planned out charging network.  I believe this is one of the reasons Tesla still outsells other battery only EVs.
Compared to other manufacturers individually yes but their total market share is not so big and the competition is not far behind:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/)

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/ (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)
What is interesting about the numbers from these websites is that EVs are booming in China.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 16, 2018, 10:12:54 pm
Question to EV users.  What is stopping me from unplugging your charging cord if you leave it unattended?  Do they lock?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 16, 2018, 10:17:25 pm
I have and use PlugShare.  I'd give it 2.5 stars.  The informaiton is not always correct and lots of key information is missing.  And I don't think PugShare has all charging stations so that mean one has to use multiple apps.....  Oh and that's another reason EV cars won't be mainstream, you have to have a smartphone.  And it can't be just any smartphone either.  The smartphone has to be running the OS the app was writen for.

One would think this would be a perfect add on for Google Maps.


If I have a Volt, can I get one of those adapters which would allow me to use a Tesla carging station?

Yeah, having charger locations on google maps would be great.  I've not had any problems with plugshare and use it fairly regularly. The app has one annoying flaw in that it's really hard to get to the charging reports. Once you find it, there is a lot of good info from other users. In particular, you can see how many charging failures there were.

You never know about an adapter for the tesla plug. Doubt it's a high priority for Elon.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 16, 2018, 10:17:56 pm
Question to EV users.  What is stopping me from unplugging your charging cord if you leave it unattended?  Do they lock?
Some do. Some don't.  Typically you can unplug intermediate adapters. Chademos you can stop.  But it's not a problem. You should get notification that your charge stopped on the app.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 16, 2018, 10:30:35 pm
What I also find striking is that only Tesla has a planned out charging network.  I believe this is one of the reasons Tesla still outsells other battery only EVs.
Compared to other manufacturers individually yes but their total market share is not so big and the competition is not far behind:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/)

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/ (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)
What is interesting about the numbers from these websites is that EVs are booming in China.

Yes, china is booming.

As to network competition - lots of talk but not one competitor has done anything. Frankly, I expected at least one manufacturer to be starting to roll something out in 2018 but looks like they just don't understand the network effect.

As to competitive cars. Again, lots of talk but only feeble responses. I have yet to see a car close to entering manufacturing that looks like a real threat to Tesla. I thought the Bolt had potential but it just hasn't caught on for what ever reason. Right now, Tesla's biggest threat is themselves. They have a huge order list and are struggling to ramp production. If a sexy competitive car got released, they would be in real trouble. Maybe a "Bolt GT" or some such. Still, they are way ahead of everyone else.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 17, 2018, 05:09:10 am
As to competitive cars. Again, lots of talk but only feeble responses. I have yet to see a car close to entering manufacturing that looks like a real threat to Tesla. I thought the Bolt had potential but it just hasn't caught on for what ever reason. Right now, Tesla's biggest threat is themselves. They have a huge order list and are struggling to ramp production. If a sexy competitive car got released, they would be in real trouble. Maybe a "Bolt GT" or some such. Still, they are way ahead of everyone else.
The Bolt and Nissan Leaf both have looks only their mothers would love (though the 2018 Leaf is kinda nice). GM seems to do very little to actually market the Bolt. Dealerships often have exactly one salesperson who knows anything about them, and even they end up doing things like offering free oil changes. ::) There are rumors that GM is planning a dual motor version with a bigger battery, but no official word.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: poorchava on April 17, 2018, 05:35:01 am
Unless they come up with a way to charge up the battery in 5 minutes - it's not gonna fly. In many countries the predominant form of housing are all sorts of apartament buildings, often without any form of garage (people just keep their cars parked on the street). So no charging overnight. Many companies do not have big parking lots, so people park on the streets too. No charging either. So they'd have to spend some hours every other day (depending on the commute distance) to wait for their car to charge up. No thanks. With battery powered tools, there are rechangeable batteries for that exact reason. To not put you in a position where u need to do something, but you have to wait for the damn thing to charge. Wealthy people will often live in a house or an apartement building with a parking spot, where they can charge their cars - that's true, but if it's supposed to be something that masses can use - no go.

Car's a tool. It's supposed to work.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 17, 2018, 02:24:33 pm
What I also find striking is that only Tesla has a planned out charging network.  I believe this is one of the reasons Tesla still outsells other battery only EVs.
Compared to other manufacturers individually yes but their total market share is not so big and the competition is not far behind:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/)

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/ (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)
What is interesting about the numbers from these websites is that EVs are booming in China.

Yes, china is booming.

As to network competition - lots of talk but not one competitor has done anything. Frankly, I expected at least one manufacturer to be starting to roll something out in 2018 but looks like they just don't understand the network effect.

As to competitive cars. Again, lots of talk but only feeble responses. I have yet to see a car close to entering manufacturing that looks like a real threat to Tesla. I thought the Bolt had potential but it just hasn't caught on for what ever reason. Right now, Tesla's biggest threat is themselves. They have a huge order list and are struggling to ramp production. If a sexy competitive car got released, they would be in real trouble. Maybe a "Bolt GT" or some such. Still, they are way ahead of everyone else.
Only Tesla seems to think a vendor run charging network makes sense. Everyone else realises that charging has to come down to a common infrastructure, like every gas station being compatible with the tank filling port on every make of car. Where I live there are lots of places around the town to charge a car. For example, supermarket and retail park car parks mostly have a few charging points. I can't remember seeing a Tesla charger, though.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 17, 2018, 04:45:51 pm
Wow, reading this thread you would think there is a war going out there. People stealing electricity, anti EVers vandalizing infrastructure,...

That is not even close to what I see. Both my wife and I drive EVs - I've had mine since 2013 and She got hers late 2016.  Between the two of us, we've had maybe 3 incidents and they were minor comments. Contrast that with a huge number of very positive comments and lots of questions. I've never seen or heard of a charger that was vandalized, never had violence threatened. The only issue is ICEing chargers that I pointed out earlier and it's not a huge issue in general.  Only at poorly sited chargers.

As to stealing electricity, most, if not all, of the "customer use only" chargers for specific businesses I'm familiar with would be very hard to freeload on. They are usually at hotels or restaurants in a location such that it would be pretty obvious.  Plus most lots have signs that say "customer use only, all others towed" or similar. Those businesses see EVers as a very desirable demographic.  It's definitely not greenwashing because for the most part they don't advertise it. There are lots of shopping centers in the US that have chargers. Someone could freeload on those but we aren't talking about a lot of money here.  My Tesla max charge is 85 KWh.  At the average national rate, that's a bit over $9 and 4 hrs to fully charge on the typical free charger. Explain to me why there would be hordes of freeloaders? It would be incredibly inconvenient to drive to the mall, plug in and wait around for hours (not purchasing any goods or services) just to get a couple of dollars worth of free power. That dog don't hunt.

Interesting you have had three incidents. 
Charging cords have been cut in Florida and California by neighbors in housing complexes who think EV drivers are getting free electricty.  They aren’t as they are paying there portion of the electric bill.

In California EV drivers are ripping off business, specifically super markets and hotels which offer free charging while shopping or staying in the hotel.  What freeloading EV drivers are doing is using the store or hotel’s EV charger while they are at the gym across the street, at the movie theater down the street or at work.  They don’t shop in the store or stay at the hotel.  They see free charging but disregard the sign that says only while shopping at our store or staying in our hotel.

After this happened to me twice in one month I’m starting to watch for it.  I’ve had my EV car for over a year and never noticed this before.  I think this is becoming more prevelinet as more people in California purchase EVs.  And then ICE drivers I guess are parking in EV spaces to prevent charging as a way of saying screw you for having an electric car.  I’ve not been able to charge because of this once in the past year.

EV cars and EV charging is tuning into an interesting social experiment.  It’s going to be interesting how it plays out.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 17, 2018, 05:05:44 pm
I think the solution for powering EV cars will be what Ford came up with the Nucleon.  Car gets 5,000 miles before it needs to be recharged and emits no greenhouse gasses or any other pollutants while being driven. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 06:51:47 pm
Only Tesla seems to think a vendor run charging network makes sense. Everyone else realises that charging has to come down to a common infrastructure, like every gas station being compatible with the tank filling port on every make of car. Where I live there are lots of places around the town to charge a car. For example, supermarket and retail park car parks mostly have a few charging points. I can't remember seeing a Tesla charger, though.
Hmmm, and you discount the possibility of the network being a factor in Tesla outselling other BEVs?

You don't see the chargers because they aren't terribly obvious. The brown markers are superchargers, the green are Tesla outlets at destinations.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 06:58:09 pm
Unless they come up with a way to charge up the battery in 5 minutes - it's not gonna fly. In many countries the predominant form of housing are all sorts of apartament buildings, often without any form of garage (people just keep their cars parked on the street). So no charging overnight. Many companies do not have big parking lots, so people park on the streets too. No charging either. So they'd have to spend some hours every other day (depending on the commute distance) to wait for their car to charge up. No thanks. With battery powered tools, there are rechangeable batteries for that exact reason. To not put you in a position where u need to do something, but you have to wait for the damn thing to charge. Wealthy people will often live in a house or an apartement building with a parking spot, where they can charge their cars - that's true, but if it's supposed to be something that masses can use - no go.

Car's a tool. It's supposed to work.

meh. heard this before. Filling Station mentality. I won't make a change if I have to ANYTHING differently. The world is changing, get used to it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 17, 2018, 07:09:03 pm
The world is changing, get used to it.

Progress is not assured, you have to make realistic plans and carry them forward without hopeful thinking.

If you try to use the state to force the poor into electric cars while the rich just use it as a second car and use fossil when convenient (very often once the novelty of value signalling is gone, plus the many rich who get a kick from signalling opulence). You're going to see a change you will not like.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 17, 2018, 08:07:31 pm
Only Tesla seems to think a vendor run charging network makes sense. Everyone else realises that charging has to come down to a common infrastructure, like every gas station being compatible with the tank filling port on every make of car. Where I live there are lots of places around the town to charge a car. For example, supermarket and retail park car parks mostly have a few charging points. I can't remember seeing a Tesla charger, though.
Hmmm, and you discount the possibility of the network being a factor in Tesla outselling other BEVs?

You don't see the chargers because they aren't terribly obvious. The brown markers are superchargers, the green are Tesla outlets at destinations.
The Leaf is fairly common in the UK, but Teslas are rare. Tesla lists 47 working superchargers across the entire UK. The nearest is about 20 miles from our home. On the other hand I can charge any electric car with non-Tesla chargers in many convenient places around most urban areas, like supermarkets, retail parks, and park and ride centres. These are the bulk of the locations on the plugshare map you posted. Most of the free to use chargers are not fast chargers, but some of those at bigger locations, like park and ride centres, offer fast charging. These non-Tesla site are really making EVs practical for lots of people. The Tesla network doesn't really add to the attraction of buying a Tesla at all.

Recent figures for the UK say there are 4300 public EV charging sites in the UK, offering 12500 charging ports. If I choose a Tesla over an another make of car it looks like I increase my 4300 choices of charging site by 47 supercharger locations.  :)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 09:40:09 pm
Those 47 super chargers (you ignored the much larger number of tesla "wall" chargers) are sited to support long distance travel (near motorways) and charging at high speed.  How many of those 4300 sites are similarly sited and have high speed charging?  The point a lot of people are missing is that the Supercharger network is set up to make long distance EV travel work. I know in the US, long distance travel in any EV other than a Tesla is hard, if not impossible. Would be surprised if the the UK and continental Europe were different.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: poorchava on April 17, 2018, 09:51:22 pm
Unless they come up with a way to charge up the battery in 5 minutes - it's not gonna fly. In many countries the predominant form of housing are all sorts of apartament buildings, often without any form of garage (people just keep their cars parked on the street). So no charging overnight. Many companies do not have big parking lots, so people park on the streets too. No charging either. So they'd have to spend some hours every other day (depending on the commute distance) to wait for their car to charge up. No thanks. With battery powered tools, there are rechangeable batteries for that exact reason. To not put you in a position where u need to do something, but you have to wait for the damn thing to charge. Wealthy people will often live in a house or an apartement building with a parking spot, where they can charge their cars - that's true, but if it's supposed to be something that masses can use - no go.

Car's a tool. It's supposed to work.

meh. heard this before. Filling Station mentality. I won't make a change if I have to ANYTHING differently. The world is changing, get used to it.

It's not that, but rather: I'm not gonna make a change if the result is less convenient and functional than the current way the things are done.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 17, 2018, 09:57:34 pm
Those 47 super chargers (you ignored the much larger number of tesla "wall" chargers) are sited to support long distance travel (near motorways) and charging at high speed.  How many of those 4300 sites are similarly sited and have high speed charging?  The point a lot of people are missing is that the Supercharger network is set up to make long distance EV travel work. I know in the US, long distance travel in any EV other than a Tesla is hard, if not impossible. Would be surprised if the the UK and continental Europe were different.
By wall chargers I assume you mean home chargers. Those seem irrelevant to the discussion. Who has an electric car and no home charger? Leaf owners in the UK seem to do OK on long journeys, as long as they plan properly. There are quite a few public chargers that will charge as fast as the car permits.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 10:40:27 pm
No, that doesn't list home chargers.  Those are at restaurants, hotels, ...  Several of the hotels I stayed at in Scotland last year had Tesla wall chargers. The one in Inverness had 3.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 17, 2018, 11:12:00 pm
It's not that, but rather: I'm not gonna make a change if the result is less convenient and functional than the current way the things are done.

For anyone with a garage or dedicated parking space where you can set up a charger, the net change in convenience is very positive.  Long distance travel is typically the exception. For most EVers, it takes less than a minute to plug/unplug for a once a week charging session. Compared to 15-20 minutes to go the the gas/petrol station and gas up once a week, the net benefit outside of long distance travel is huge.

For those that don't have dedicated parking with chargers, shopping areas and places of employment with chargers can gain benefits similar to a dedicate charging space. Overlapping charging with shopping or dining helps.  It's not perfect and does require some behavioral and infrastructure change to increase adoption. But I don't understand why people seem to think that's a reason to say EVs are a stupid idea.

And by the way. There are other ways they save you time. With EVs, no oil changes are required, no tune-ups needed. The only fluid needing regular replacement is windshield wiper fluid. Because of regen, brakes last 50K miles/80Km. Once a year checkup. So, they save a lot of maintenance time and cost.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on April 18, 2018, 02:43:34 am

Progress is not assured, you have to make realistic plans and carry them forward without hopeful thinking.

If you try to use the state to force the poor into electric cars while the rich just use it as a second car and use fossil when convenient (very often once the novelty of value signalling is gone, plus the many rich who get a kick from signalling opulence). You're going to see a change you will not like.

Who's trying to force anyone? Encourage yes, but only because it's obvious that a lot of people write off the whole idea of an EV without even stopping to think of the "problems" they think of are really an issue for them. For some they are, for many they aren't. EVs are not for everyone, they're not the best tool for every job, but for many people they're the best tool for that particular person's needs. For those whose lifestyle and living situation is not a good fit for an EV, conventional cars will be around for the foreseeable future. I'm not trying to convince anyone without private parking to get an EV, but there are millions of people who have private parking, a modest commute and in many cases even a second or third car in the household who still come up with the same bogus excuses of why an EV wouldn't work for them.

I'm a big fan of older cars so I have not seriously considered an EV, but man, if I could just plug in each night when I get home and never have to go to a gas station again that would be awesome, it's such a hugely compelling convenience that I have trouble understanding why anyone who has private parking would consider it a detriment rather than a feature to just be able to plug in the car each night like they already do with their phone. Have a full "tank" every morning with almost zero effort.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 18, 2018, 03:21:55 am
I imagine that if internet forums existed 100 years ago, the exact same analagous debate, with analgous arguments one each side, would have occured on the topic “When will automobiles become mainstream”.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 18, 2018, 03:48:55 am
I imagine that if internet forums existed 100 years ago, the exact same analagous debate, with analgous arguments one each side, would have occured on the topic “When will automobiles become mainstream”.

It only took 2 years for New York city to be 99.999% horse driven to 99.9999% ICE.  That was in 1912.  People were tired walking though horse poop that could be 3 feet thick on some days.  And any idea how much horse urine there was?  60, 000 gallons.  If I'm not mistaken in 1920 New York on a daily bases had to deal with 2,500,000 pounds of horse poop.  Average life expentancey of a working horse was three years.  They would drop dead on the street and left to rot for days. Similar story every other city in the world.

Simiar story in London with the "Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894".
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/ (https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/)

Haven't we already seen some cities ban smelly diesel trucks during certain hours so shoppers would not be exposed to diesel fumes? 




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 19, 2018, 12:24:21 am
I imagine that if internet forums existed 100 years ago, the exact same analagous debate, with analgous arguments one each side, would have occured on the topic “When will automobiles become mainstream”.

It only took 2 years for New York city to be 99.999% horse driven to 99.9999% ICE.  That was in 1912.  People were tired walking though horse poop that could be 3 feet thick on some days.  And any idea how much horse urine there was?  60, 000 gallons.  If I'm not mistaken in 1920 New York on a daily bases had to deal with 2,500,000 pounds of horse poop.  Average life expentancey of a working horse was three years.  They would drop dead on the street and left to rot for days. Similar story every other city in the world.

Simiar story in London with the "Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894".
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/ (https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/)

Haven't we already seen some cities ban smelly diesel trucks during certain hours so shoppers would not be exposed to diesel fumes?

Well in 1920, according to your numbers, there weren't very many horses in NYC.  But your point about there being a tipping point with a high Q rings true. 

But there was a lot of resistance to transitioning from horse to automobile throughout the US. Keeping a horse was labor intensive, it could only go so far before needing a rest, you had to feed it even if you didn't ride it and the manure needed to be dealt with on a regular basis. But even with all the benefits of auto ownership, people resisted. So, I don't find it surprising that people resist EVs.

Perhaps the bigger question is will people actually own cars in 50 years?  Or will we have massive fleets of self driving Uber cars.  All EVs, of course.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 19, 2018, 12:28:52 am
Perhaps the bigger question is will people actually own cars in 50 years?  Or will we have massive fleets of self driving Uber cars.  All EVs, of course.

Or we'll be back to horses.  I put the odds at 50/50  EVs versus Horses. :o
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: vk6zgo on April 19, 2018, 12:49:08 am
I imagine that if internet forums existed 100 years ago, the exact same analagous debate, with analgous arguments one each side, would have occured on the topic “When will automobiles become mainstream”.

It only took 2 years for New York city to be 99.999% horse driven to 99.9999% ICE.  That was in 1912.  People were tired walking though horse poop that could be 3 feet thick on some days.  And any idea how much horse urine there was?  60, 000 gallons.  If I'm not mistaken in 1920 New York on a daily bases had to deal with 2,500,000 pounds of horse poop.  Average life expentancey of a working horse was three years.  They would drop dead on the street and left to rot for days. Similar story every other city in the world.

Simiar story in London with the "Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894".
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/ (https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofBritain/Great-Horse-Manure-Crisis-of-1894/)

Haven't we already seen some cities ban smelly diesel trucks during certain hours so shoppers would not be exposed to diesel fumes?

Well in 1920, according to your numbers, there weren't very many horses in NYC.  But your point about there being a tipping point with a high Q rings true. 

But there was a lot of resistance to transitioning from horse to automobile throughout the US. Keeping a horse was labor intensive, it could only go so far before needing a rest, you had to feed it even if you didn't ride it and the manure needed to be dealt with on a regular basis. But even with all the benefits of auto ownership, people resisted. So, I don't find it surprising that people resist EVs.

Perhaps the bigger question is will people actually own cars in 50 years?  Or will we have massive fleets of self driving Uber cars.  All EVs, of course.

If you lived on a farm, "fuel" for your horse was, for much of the year, free.
Most people didn't travel really long distances, & when they did, scheduled their trip so the horse & owner could "recharge" overnight.

At least in Australia, the Great Economic Depression put a serious kink in the take up of cars as horse replacements.
This was followed at breakneck speed by WW2, when fuel was rationed.
Some cars had charcoal burning "gas producers" fitted, others were used very sparingly, with many garaged "for the duration", with their owners reverting to public transport, bicycles, &, yes, horses.

Hell, we had a horse & cart when I was a kid in the early 1950s, being one family of several in our small town who did this.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 19, 2018, 06:37:31 am
I think you are mixing up the confidence of a modern car with what a pain in the ass it was to own a car over 100 years ago.  Remember 100 year ago customers had a choice between electric cars, Internal combustion engines and external combustion engines, steam).  I believe the odds on favorite was ECE/steam as that was a trusted and proven technology at the time.  Steam powered machines were wide spread use and ICE and electric were the new fangeled unproven technology.  As oil was refined gasoline was considered a waste product and barrels of it were poured into streams to get rid of it.

Folks who could afford to purchase cars also had to employee a chauffeur/mechanic to keep the thing running.  Cars then were very temperamental and were always in need of adjusting. 

And let’s not forget there were no gas stations 100 years ago.  If one needed gasoline they purchased it at a there local drug store.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 19, 2018, 04:07:23 pm
I think you are mixing up the confidence of a modern car with what a pain in the ass it was to own a car over 100 years ago.  Remember 100 year ago customers had a choice between electric cars, Internal combustion engines and external combustion engines, steam).  I believe the odds on favorite was ECE/steam as that was a trusted and proven technology at the time.  Steam powered machines were wide spread use and ICE and electric were the new fangeled unproven technology.  As oil was refined gasoline was considered a waste product and barrels of it were poured into streams to get rid of it.

Folks who could afford to purchase cars also had to employee a chauffeur/mechanic to keep the thing running.  Cars then were very temperamental and were always in need of adjusting. 

And let’s not forget there were no gas stations 100 years ago.  If one needed gasoline they purchased it at a there local drug store.
I don't think so. 

While really early ICE cars were the province of the rich or tinkerers, the Model T was a breakthrough, especially with the introduction of the electric starter in 1919. It was inexpensive, relatively reliable and easy to fix. They "flew off the shelves" - there was huge demand. In 1920 Ford cut the price to $395 and sold 1.4M of them. Cumulative number of Model Ts sold from 1909 through 1920 was 4.6M. The population of the US at that time was a bit more than 100M. There were about 23M families at that point - almost 1 family in 5 had a Ford Model T.

Steam was a problem because you had to fire it up well before you left whereas the ICEs of the day, with an electric starter, took just a few minutes to get ready. While steam autos may have out numbered ICE autos early on, it was on very small numbers. Wikipedia says:  In the U.S. in 1902, 485 of 909 new car registrations were steamers. However, by 1910 only a handful of steamer companies were left. One of which was Stanley - Wikipedia says: Production rose to 500 cars in 1917. Ford that same year: 375K. White was probably the leading manufacturer and built a total of about 10K, ending production in 1912.

Electric was a non-starter due to poor battery capacity and weight . Also limited electrification restricted where they could go - in 1921, a little more than half the population of the US had electricity.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: bicycleguy on April 19, 2018, 05:12:26 pm
There was lots of discussion a while back about the effect on the grid of EV's.
Here's some actual data of power consumption before and after my Chevy Spark electric.

'Electric Use.png' shows I've been collecting data for a while.  You can see in May 2015 when I first got the car I went nuts driving .
I''m in Southern California, no home air conditioning, so winter actually uses more power than summer for the fan on the gas forced air heating.

'Elec b4 after.png' re-arranges the data to see the delta better.  Looks like maybe 50KWH/month more, 50/360 = 14% increase.  All charging at night, only driving about 600mile/month.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 19, 2018, 06:42:59 pm
Hmmm, what's your spark's WH per mile? doing the math (50KWh/600) I get 83 wh/mi. Seems kind of low, was expecting something in the 200-250 range.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: bicycleguy on April 19, 2018, 07:20:33 pm
Hmmm, what's your spark's WH per mile? doing the math (50KWh/600) I get 83 wh/mi. Seems kind of low, was expecting something in the 200-250 range.

Yah, that looks weird.  Must be my home efficiency upgrades, my daughter moving out and a more efficient computer to read these blogs  |O has skewed the data.

So I have car-charger only data from my kit built, OpenEVSE which records very accurate kWH.  It works out to 233Wh/mile or 4.3mile/kWH, which better agrees with the cars onboard display of ~5mile/kWH(driving only, no charging).

thanks
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on April 19, 2018, 07:24:56 pm
Hmmm, what's your spark's WH per mile? doing the math (50KWh/600) I get 83 wh/mi. Seems kind of low, was expecting something in the 200-250 range.

Yah, that looks weird.  Must be my home efficiency upgrades, my daughter moving out and a more efficient computer to read these blogs  |O has skewed the data.

So I have car-charger only data from my kit built, OpenEVSE which records very accurate kWH.  It works out to 233Wh/mile or 4.3mile/kWH, which better agrees with the cars onboard display of ~5mile/kWH(driving only, no charging).

thanks
Its a pity that visible energy metering isn't a standard function in EV chargers. I think you'll find some kind of reasonably accurate power/energy monitoring in most of them, but its buried and only used to manage the load.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 19, 2018, 09:03:04 pm
233 including charger efficiency is pretty good. At the average national rate of 11.7 cents/kwh thats 2.7 cents per mile. Though, you probably pay a bit more than that for your electricity.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: radar_macgyver on April 20, 2018, 06:00:34 am
Perhaps the bigger question is will people actually own cars in 50 years?  Or will we have massive fleets of self driving Uber cars.  All EVs, of course.

Or we'll be back to horses.  I put the odds at 50/50  EVs versus Horses. :o

Self driving horses?  :D


Its a pity that visible energy metering isn't a standard function in EV chargers. I think you'll find some kind of reasonably accurate power/energy monitoring in most of them, but its buried and only used to manage the load.

Open EVSE has it, as does the Juicebox Pro. Juicebox lets you show plots of energy vs time, and download csv files of the data as well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Miyuki on April 20, 2018, 08:54:53 am

Self driving horses?  :D


horses have pretty good self driving features and also automatic braking  ;D
and they can bring you home from pub even if you are a bag of potatoes  8)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 20, 2018, 10:02:45 am

Self driving horses?  :D


horses have pretty good self driving features and also automatic braking  ;D
and they can bring you home from pub even if you are a bag of potatoes  8)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO7XY8vIN0w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO7XY8vIN0w)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 20, 2018, 10:34:21 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO7XY8vIN0w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OO7XY8vIN0w)

More intelligent than the right hand lane hoggers round here!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on April 20, 2018, 10:44:51 am
The intelligent part of that vehicle was obviously the dog. 🐕
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 20, 2018, 03:44:08 pm
I think you are mixing up the confidence of a modern car with what a pain in the ass it was to own a car over 100 years ago.  Remember 100 year ago customers had a choice between electric cars, Internal combustion engines and external combustion engines, steam).  I believe the odds on favorite was ECE/steam as that was a trusted and proven technology at the time.  Steam powered machines were wide spread use and ICE and electric were the new fangeled unproven technology.  As oil was refined gasoline was considered a waste product and barrels of it were poured into streams to get rid of it.

Folks who could afford to purchase cars also had to employee a chauffeur/mechanic to keep the thing running.  Cars then were very temperamental and were always in need of adjusting. 

And let’s not forget there were no gas stations 100 years ago.  If one needed gasoline they purchased it at a there local drug store.
I don't think so. 

While really early ICE cars were the province of the rich or tinkerers, the Model T was a breakthrough, especially with the introduction of the electric starter in 1919. It was inexpensive, relatively reliable and easy to fix. They "flew off the shelves" - there was huge demand. In 1920 Ford cut the price to $395 and sold 1.4M of them. Cumulative number of Model Ts sold from 1909 through 1920 was 4.6M. The population of the US at that time was a bit more than 100M. There were about 23M families at that point - almost 1 family in 5 had a Ford Model T.

Steam was a problem because you had to fire it up well before you left whereas the ICEs of the day, with an electric starter, took just a few minutes to get ready. While steam autos may have out numbered ICE autos early on, it was on very small numbers. Wikipedia says:  In the U.S. in 1902, 485 of 909 new car registrations were steamers. However, by 1910 only a handful of steamer companies were left. One of which was Stanley - Wikipedia says: Production rose to 500 cars in 1917. Ford that same year: 375K. White was probably the leading manufacturer and built a total of about 10K, ending production in 1912.

Electric was a non-starter due to poor battery capacity and weight . Also limited electrification restricted where they could go - in 1921, a little more than half the population of the US had electricity.

Thank you for sharing this.

Do you know when the first ICE, ECE and electric car companies began selling cars in the US?
I think the first ICE car was in Europe/Germany around 1880.  Bens(?)  From before Mercedes Bens.
And did Baker Electric cars sell okay?  I think they did go out of business until 1930s.

The "Early Car Wars" would make for an interstring documentary video.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on April 20, 2018, 04:28:11 pm
horses have pretty good self driving features and also automatic braking  ;D
and they can bring you home from pub even if you are a bag of potatoes  8)
I wouldn't bet on that. In general horses know the way pretty well if it is a known route for them. BUT a horse is also 'jumpy' and will run like a chicken without a head if it gets scared.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on April 20, 2018, 05:07:47 pm
Well, in a perfect confluence of timing.  Our new eGolf should be ready for delivery in a couple of weeks, and my openEVSE parts are sitting at a friends place ready to be picked up next week.

Hopefully I'll be reporting real-world info here shortly.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 20, 2018, 07:39:59 pm
Well, in a perfect confluence of timing.  Our new eGolf should be ready for delivery in a couple of weeks, and my openEVSE parts are sitting at a friends place ready to be picked up next week.

Hopefully I'll be reporting real-world info here shortly.

Welcome to the club.  VW is making a huge bet on EVs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: linux-works on April 20, 2018, 08:04:43 pm
I recently joined an EV company in the bay area (not tesla..).

we have chargers at work, quite a lot, and it looks appealing - but I am currently in an apartment, can't get to the point of being able to own a home in the bay area and without home charging, I just don't feel comfortable getting an EV and having that be my only car.

I WORK at an EV company and would love to join in, but until I can control my own charging - I'm not ready to make the jump yet.

I do envy those who own a home and can install garage chargers.  if that was me, I'd have had an EV by now for sure.

until then, I watch everyone else enjoying theirs.  someday, it will be for 'everyone'.  sooner than we all think, too; at least in tech areas of the world.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: linux-works on April 20, 2018, 08:10:53 pm
oh, and look to CHINA for the progress in EV rollout; the chinese govt is putting a LOT of money behind ev companies and infra in china.

I wish the US would do that; but china is leading the effort world-wide - mostly due to the fact that their air quality is unbreathable in most of china and they know they HAVE to fix this sooner rather than later.  having the govt behind it makes all the diff; and there are money incentives that will help chinese consumers be able to afford these easier.

fact: car license fees in china/mainland can be VERY pricey; but if you buy a china-made EV in china you get the license fee for almost nothing.  that can save you $10k or more in fees, alone; not to mention that I think (?) there are some days you can't drive petrol based cars, but ev cars can be driven any day and with other restrictions removed, to encourage buying and using them.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on April 21, 2018, 12:30:30 am
BUT a horse is also 'jumpy' and will run like a chicken without a head if it gets scared.
PETA once shared a bunch of stories about horses and "sudden unintended acceleration".
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 21, 2018, 03:03:38 am
BUT a horse is also 'jumpy' and will run like a chicken without a head if it gets scared.
PETA once shared a bunch of stories about horses and "sudden unintended acceleration".

Aren't injuries and deaths from horse accidents fairly frequent?  I know of an 11 year little girl who was killed by an of control hours she was driving.  She was ejected from the drivers seat.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on April 21, 2018, 12:45:26 pm
I recently joined an EV company in the bay area (not tesla..).

we have chargers at work, quite a lot, and it looks appealing - but I am currently in an apartment, can't get to the point of being able to own a home in the bay area and without home charging, I just don't feel comfortable getting an EV and having that be my only car.

I WORK at an EV company and would love to join in, but until I can control my own charging - I'm not ready to make the jump yet.

I do envy those who own a home and can install garage chargers.  if that was me, I'd have had an EV by now for sure.

until then, I watch everyone else enjoying theirs.  someday, it will be for 'everyone'.  sooner than we all think, too; at least in tech areas of the world.
That's typically something that maybe needs to be regulated by the government?
In Europe a lot of people just charge their own car from home or there are communal parking lots with chargers.
But in general in the end it all has to do with how the people adapt new technology.
That also has to to how long-therm minded people are, for example.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on April 22, 2018, 11:13:57 am
It's a fact that there were more serious accidents with horses per mile than there are with cars. Also the risktaking antics of cyclists are nothing new, horse carriage drivers used to complain of them weaving between vehicles in a reckless manner. There just seems to be something about being on a very flimsy, wobbly and exposed machine that creates a feeling of godlike indestructibility..  :palm:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhnjMdzGusc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhnjMdzGusc)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 22, 2018, 05:27:17 pm
It's a fact that there were more serious accidents with horses per mile than there are with cars. Also the risktaking antics of cyclists are nothing new, horse carriage drivers used to complain of them weaving between vehicles in a reckless manner. There just seems to be something about being on a very flimsy, wobbly and exposed machine that creates a feeling of godlike indestructibility..  :palm:

Since bikers are mostly young, healthy men, they provide a steady supply of transplantable organs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 22, 2018, 08:00:47 pm
Lets please not group motorcyclists and the pedal power lemmings in the same bracket please.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 22, 2018, 10:01:34 pm
Lets please not group motorcyclists and the pedal power lemmings in the same bracket please.

Biker in the US is a motorcyclist. Cyclist usually means Bicyclist. I suppose it's the opposite where you are. And, please don't insult lemmings...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on April 22, 2018, 10:27:20 pm
Since bikers are mostly young, healthy men, they provide a steady supply of transplantable organs.

Medical slang for motorcycle is donor-cycle. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on April 22, 2018, 11:12:13 pm
Lets please not group motorcyclists and the pedal power lemmings in the same bracket please.
The illusion of control is strong in this one. Cyclists are merely obnoxious, motorcyclists are on the wrong end of statistics.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 23, 2018, 06:30:52 am
The trouble with cyclists is they are the most vulnerable road users, probably even more so than pedestrians, but they don't act like it in the slightest.  I have never seen a motorcyclist swerve into traffic round a parked car without even a glance in the mirror or over their shoulder, yet cyclists do it routinely in front of buses.  They seem to think they can push "their" safety into the hands of others.

A motorcyclist on the other hand is also vulnerable, but for a few idiots aside they tend to ride with that in mind over here.  I'm not including those weirdo bearded men on Harley Davidsons with little tassles on the saddle bags... there is something wrong with them.

Statistically motorcyclists die most often because of car drivers not seeing them rather than wiping out of their own accord.

I have a simple policy on the motorbike.  "I'm invisible" and ... if by some freak chance of nature they do see me, they probably want to try and kill me anyway.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 23, 2018, 06:35:15 am
Lets please not group motorcyclists and the pedal power lemmings in the same bracket please.

Biker in the US is a motorcyclist. Cyclist usually means Bicyclist. I suppose it's the opposite where you are. And, please don't insult lemmings...

It's a bit more complicated than that.  Cyclist is the pedal power variant.  Motorcyclists is someone who rides a motorcycle.  Biker is typically the power ranger style suicidal warp rider.  Harley Davidson son's of anarchy style people are just weirdos, for them it's all about the show and sound and nothing at all do to with the riding or they would ride a bike designed for the purpose of riding around things like corners and capable of actually going quickly rather than making a sound like a 1950s tractor or motorboat.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on April 23, 2018, 10:48:03 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhnjMdzGusc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhnjMdzGusc)

Seriously cool contraption. I'd love one of those to drive around town in.

100 miles on a charge, too, and charging stations all over New York  - 100 years ago! I wonder where Tesla got some of his ideas from.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on April 23, 2018, 03:20:00 pm
Lets please not group motorcyclists and the pedal power lemmings in the same bracket please.

Biker in the US is a motorcyclist. Cyclist usually means Bicyclist. I suppose it's the opposite where you are. And, please don't insult lemmings...

It's a bit more complicated than that.  Cyclist is the pedal power variant.  Motorcyclists is someone who rides a motorcycle.  Biker is typically the power ranger style suicidal warp rider.  Harley Davidson son's of anarchy style people are just weirdos, for them it's all about the show and sound and nothing at all do to with the riding or they would ride a bike designed for the purpose of riding around things like corners and capable of actually going quickly rather than making a sound like a 1950s tractor or motorboat.

I don't care how the motorized 2 wheelers behave, they tend to be younger and male and all have a much higher accident rate.  Young men tend to take more risks than other groups but the invisibility point is also valid. Drivers look straight through them. Maybe those loud Harleys are a safety feature. I know there are safe riders (my brother teaches riding safety) but that doesn't change the statistics.  Reminds me of the old joking maxim - there are two kinds of riders, those that have had accidents and those that are going to.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 23, 2018, 03:49:51 pm
Two other leading causies of motorcycle accidents here in California are what we call rice rockets and insane drivers.

Rice rocket are Japanese high performance motorcycles.  Death toll is due to first time motorcycle buyers who have a lot of money, (tech jobs), and “think” they can handle a high-performance bike.  Most motorcyclists can’’t even handle these things, so it’s crazy that motorcycle shops sell these things to first time bike ownser.  I’m not sure but I think there were so many deaths here we were passed some law to protect people from killing the self on the driver home.

Next category are insaine drivers.  And there are tow categories.  First are the ones who drive 100 mph/120 mph on California freeways.  I was commuting to work one morning with congested traffic.  Next lane over was the comuter/motorcycle lane.  Saw a guy pass me by doing 80, then slowed and signaled me to watch him.  He slowed way down to 40,  Next think I see him flying by me at over 100 mph or more doing a whiliee.  (Front tire in the air balancing on the rest tire.). I watched as he did that for maybe 2 miles until he hit traffic.  This guy might be a potential Darwin Award nominee.

The second category of crazy motorcycle drivers are the ones who take their bikes afterwork on small windy roads in the hills in the Bay Area.  These roads have cliffs with 50-100 foot drop offs if you don’t stay on the road.  In a Porche one would have a hard time stying in your lane on the 35-40 mph.  Speed limit I think is 30 - 35 with some sharp curves having a speed of 15.  Everyday after work I can here these guys their bikes and rice rockets racing on these roads.  The are stretches were they can get up to 80-90 mph and then there is a hairpin turn with a 50 foot drop off.  So while these guys are “racing” people are driving home from work.  It’s not like no one uses these roads while these

These are not all guys either, women do it too.   

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 23, 2018, 03:52:19 pm
I don't care how the motorized 2 wheelers behave, they tend to be younger and male and all have a much higher accident rate.  (...snip...)  Reminds me of the old joking maxim - there are two kinds of riders, those that have had accidents and those that are going to.

Take some caution as most of the accident statistics are for fatal accidents and when the wider accident statistics are taken and modified for fault it turns out that most motorcycle accidents are the fault of a car driver.

The fatality percentage from accidents is just a factor of risk due to lack of protection at speed.

Also beware that a lot of the statistics from the states have to factor in the fact that helmets are not even a legal requirement in a few states.  I have seen Harley riders in shorts, t-shirt and flipflops with no helmet.  That's just Darwinism.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on April 23, 2018, 03:58:36 pm
Death toll is due to first time motorcycle buyers who have a lot of money, (tech jobs), and “think” they can handle a high-performance bike. 

At least in the UK you can't just jump onto a litre sports bike as your first bike... with caveats... you can do the direct access course which is much more extensive training to lift the 33bhp restriction much earlier.  Without that you are restricted to 33bhp for 2 years.

I own a 1000cc sports tourer.  I bought it after riding for 10 years on progressively bigger bikes.  It's brutal and getting the throttle fully open is a stressful task and when fully open you are at the end of the gear you are in in a few seconds plus another 40 or 50 mile per hour.

It takes time to learn that motorcycles do not brake as well, or corner as well as cars.  You borrow from the bag of luck to fill the bag of experience.  Some people just run out of luck being greedy without the experience though.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on April 23, 2018, 04:40:28 pm
When will electric cars be mainstream?  It’s going to be a long time......

Same is true with solar.

On Saturday I was at a local college in San Jose/Silicon Valley.  The college has 14 EV charging stations which have been there for years.  To use a charging station the instruction say to scan the QR code located on the top of the charger.  Out of the 14 chargers 8 were wrapped in plastic indicating they were broken or not working.  I tried scanning the QR code on all of the working chargers and could not get one to scan.  I think it was because of the mid-day sun’s reflection from the plastic.  I tried using a box to shade the sun but for the distance I had to hold my phone and the reflection of the plastic I could not scan anyone of them.

No problem - There’s 800 number for tech support.  Called the number only to learn they are open M-F easern time.  That sucks.  Not only is it a Saturday, I’m iin different time zone.  I’m waking up when they are having lunch.

End restfult, out the the 14 open EV spaces for car charging I could not use one of them.

And here’s something else I found out.  The college has acres of solar panels,  Right next to were the EV car charger are they have several very large diesel generators.  I was told that because solar production output can be very unreliable in sunny California they need to have diesel generators to produce electricty on days when solar isn’t producing.


EV and solar......  We still have a long way to go.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 04, 2018, 03:44:06 am
They just became mainstream in our household
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=423805;image)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 03:51:38 am
They just became mainstream in our household
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=423805;image)

Nice.... 
I notice it's on the street.  Do you have a long e3ntension cord to plug it to charge it?

I was looking at the VW's a couple of weeks ago and learned VM stopped making EV/Hybrids.  THey are now only making 100% electric.  Won't work for me as I would need a charge-up to get home on some of my trips.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 04, 2018, 04:03:05 am
Nice.... 
I notice it's on the street.  Do you have a long e3ntension cord to plug it to charge it?

I was looking at the VW's a couple of weeks ago and learned VM stopped making EV/Hybrids.  THey are now only making 100% electric.  Won't work for me as I would need a charge-up to get home on some of my trips.

it sleeps in the garage. Right now it's having to make do with the supplied 1kVA charger, but I have all the bits for an OpenEVSE, and already dropped in a 240/30A circuit in the garage to plug that into.  I'm going to film the OpenEVSE assembly, and I'll put it on YouTube.

VW are pretty paranoid right now about overstating things, so while they advertise "201km range" , it said 235km remaining when I left the dealership, and still said 220km when I got home (which was 20km later).  I'll update with some real-world running information once we have a better idea of how it's all working out.  Given premium gasoline just hit C$1.80/litre here, I'm not going to miss the fillups, given electricity is only 8½ cents/kWh. That means it should cost around C$3 to fill it from completely empty

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 04:59:34 am
Nice.... 
I notice it's on the street.  Do you have a long e3ntension cord to plug it to charge it?

I was looking at the VW's a couple of weeks ago and learned VM stopped making EV/Hybrids.  THey are now only making 100% electric.  Won't work for me as I would need a charge-up to get home on some of my trips.

it sleeps in the garage. Right now it's having to make do with the supplied 1kVA charger, but I have all the bits for an OpenEVSE, and already dropped in a 240/30A circuit in the garage to plug that into.  I'm going to film the OpenEVSE assembly, and I'll put it on YouTube.

VW are pretty paranoid right now about overstating things, so while they advertise "201km range" , it said 235km remaining when I left the dealership, and still said 220km when I got home (which was 20km later).  I'll update with some real-world running information once we have a better idea of how it's all working out.  Given premium gasoline just hit C$1.80/litre here, I'm not going to miss the fillups, given electricity is only 8½ cents/kWh. That means it should cost around C$3 to fill it from completely empty

Thanks for sharing.  My wife has a Volt.  As much as I dislike American car companies, I have to admit the Volt is a very well designed and built car.  I never thought I would ever recommend someone to buy a GM car, but I would recommend getting a volt.  Now that I've driven an electric car I can't wait to get rid of my ICE and go electric.  I'm convinced hybrid plug-in is the way to go.

Hope you like you car.

You are paying C$1.80/litre?  Crud is my math right?  at $1.80/L that would be 6.84/gallon?  Wow.....  And then to covert the to USD (1.2) that would be $5.70 in USD.  Is that right?  I thought you Canadians had a lot of petroleum.

You have us beat on the electricty prices.  We are paying $0.45 kWhr for peak (2-9pm) and $0.12 for off-peak/night time.  (11pm - 7 am).

I would be intersted in seeing your video on OpenEVSE.  I installed 2 - 220v 50a circuits in my garage.  Purcahsed a Clipper Creek charger.  (+1)

How's the software on the VW?  Volt has it so you can program charging times.  It also used GPS cordinates so the Volt knows when you are charging at your home.  GM also has pretty good app for iPhone and Andriod to monitor the car, unlock doors, etc.

 





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 04, 2018, 05:24:42 am
Thanks for sharing.  My wife has a Volt.  As much as I dislike American car companies, I have to admit the Volt is a very well designed and built car.  I never thought I would ever recommend someone to buy a GM car, but I would recommend getting a volt.  Now that I've driven an electric car I can't wait to get rid of my ICE and go electric.  I'm convinced hybrid plug-in is the way to go.

Hope you like you car.

You are paying C$1.80/litre?  Crud is my math right?  at $1.80/L that would be 6.84/gallon?  Wow.....  And then to covert the to USD (1.2) that would be $5.70 in USD.  Is that right?  I thought you Canadians had a lot of petroleum.

You have us beat on the electricty prices.  We are paying $0.45 kWhr for peak (2-9pm) and $0.12 for off-peak/night time.  (11pm - 7 am).

I would be intersted in seeing your video on OpenEVSE.  I installed 2 - 220v 50a circuits in my garage.  Purcahsed a Clipper Creek charger.  (+1)

How's the software on the VW?  Volt has it so you can program charging times.  It also used GPS cordinates so the Volt knows when you are charging at your home.  GM also has pretty good app for iPhone and Andriod to monitor the car, unlock doors, etc.

c$1.80 is for premium, it's about c$1.60 for regular, so about $4.56/USGal. Right now it's about US$3.70/gal across the border in WA state, and when I was in Texas last week (near the large refinery capacity) it was around US$2.79/usGal

Yes, Canada has a lot of petroleum, but sensibly we have highish taxes on it (compared with the US), which encourages people to buy smaller cars. However, both here in BC and in Quebec, there is an abundance of HydroElectric power, and electricity is silly cheap (compared to almost anywhere else in the world). My 8½c/kWh is just over half what you pay off-peak, and less than 1/6th what you pay peak.

Expensive gasoline & cheap electricity makes the e-car a no-brainer here.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 04, 2018, 05:33:26 am
Thanks for sharing.  My wife has a Volt.  As much as I dislike American car companies, I have to admit the Volt is a very well designed and built car.  I never thought I would ever recommend someone to buy a GM car, but I would recommend getting a volt.  Now that I've driven an electric car I can't wait to get rid of my ICE and go electric.  I'm convinced hybrid plug-in is the way to go.

Hope you like you car.

You are paying C$1.80/litre?  Crud is my math right?  at $1.80/L that would be 6.84/gallon?  Wow.....  And then to covert the to USD (1.2) that would be $5.70 in USD.  Is that right?  I thought you Canadians had a lot of petroleum.

You have us beat on the electricty prices.  We are paying $0.45 kWhr for peak (2-9pm) and $0.12 for off-peak/night time.  (11pm - 7 am).

I would be intersted in seeing your video on OpenEVSE.  I installed 2 - 220v 50a circuits in my garage.  Purcahsed a Clipper Creek charger.  (+1)

How's the software on the VW?  Volt has it so you can program charging times.  It also used GPS cordinates so the Volt knows when you are charging at your home.  GM also has pretty good app for iPhone and Andriod to monitor the car, unlock doors, etc.

c$1.80 is for premium, it's about c$1.60 for regular, so about $4.56/USGal. Right now it's about US$3.70/gal across the border in WA state, and when I was in Texas last week (near the large refinery capacity) it was around US$2.79/usGal

Yes, Canada has a lot of petroleum, but sensibly we have highish taxes on it (compared with the US), which encourages people to buy smaller cars. However, both here in BC and in Quebec, there is an abundance of HydroElectric power, and electricity is silly cheap (compared to almost anywhere else in the world). My 8½c/kWh is just over half what you pay off-peak, and less than 1/6th what you pay peak.

Expensive gasoline & cheap electricity makes the e-car a no-brainer here.

Isn't cold weather a problem with battery range?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 04, 2018, 05:37:49 am
Not likely, at least not the sort you'd find in the Vancouver BC area. The batteries will self-heat as soon as you put a load on them.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 05:41:03 am
Thanks for sharing.  My wife has a Volt.  As much as I dislike American car companies, I have to admit the Volt is a very well designed and built car.  I never thought I would ever recommend someone to buy a GM car, but I would recommend getting a volt.  Now that I've driven an electric car I can't wait to get rid of my ICE and go electric.  I'm convinced hybrid plug-in is the way to go.

Hope you like you car.

You are paying C$1.80/litre?  Crud is my math right?  at $1.80/L that would be 6.84/gallon?  Wow.....  And then to covert the to USD (1.2) that would be $5.70 in USD.  Is that right?  I thought you Canadians had a lot of petroleum.

You have us beat on the electricty prices.  We are paying $0.45 kWhr for peak (2-9pm) and $0.12 for off-peak/night time.  (11pm - 7 am).

I would be intersted in seeing your video on OpenEVSE.  I installed 2 - 220v 50a circuits in my garage.  Purcahsed a Clipper Creek charger.  (+1)

How's the software on the VW?  Volt has it so you can program charging times.  It also used GPS cordinates so the Volt knows when you are charging at your home.  GM also has pretty good app for iPhone and Andriod to monitor the car, unlock doors, etc.

c$1.80 is for premium, it's about c$1.60 for regular, so about $4.56/USGal. Right now it's about US$3.70/gal across the border in WA state, and when I was in Texas last week (near the large refinery capacity) it was around US$2.79/usGal

Yes, Canada has a lot of petroleum, but sensibly we have highish taxes on it (compared with the US), which encourages people to buy smaller cars. However, both here in BC and in Quebec, there is an abundance of HydroElectric power, and electricity is silly cheap (compared to almost anywhere else in the world). My 8½c/kWh is just over half what you pay off-peak, and less than 1/6th what you pay peak.

Expensive gasoline & cheap electricity makes the e-car a no-brainer here.

Isn't cold weather a problem with battery range?

I don't think so.  Dave did a video on lead/acid and they produce a lot of heat when charging and discharging.  I think it's 20% and 20%.  So between charging and discharging 40% of the energy is lost as heat.

Li batteries are a bit better.  But they are still affected by cold. But aging they heat-up when discharging.  Good question. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 04, 2018, 06:41:43 am
I own a Volt. Great car. I live about 100 mi as the crow flies from Vancouver, BC - same general climate. Battery range is definitely decreased approx 10%  in winter months compared to summer.

Lucky here . Gas is cheap and grid power (mostly hydro derived) is $0.075/kWh.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on May 04, 2018, 07:32:57 am
Just for comparison in the UK I currently pay £1.34 per litre of premium.  So £4.95 per US gallon.  $6.71 per gallon.  A tank of 50 litres gets me around 300 miles commuting.  350-370 miles touring.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 04, 2018, 02:03:19 pm
VW are pretty paranoid right now about overstating things, so while they advertise "201km range" , it said 235km remaining when I left the dealership, and still said 220km when I got home (which was 20km later).  I'll update with some real-world running information once we have a better idea of how it's all working out.
IMHO one of the errors with electric cars is that they emphasize on range left instead of charge left. It is simply impossible to calculate the remaining range accurate enough to be meaningful in practical circumstances. Just like ICE cars electric cars should show remaining charge as the primary indicator and range is just some kind of gross guesstimate.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: linux-works on May 04, 2018, 02:54:26 pm
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?

that's quite a product design approach.  life is too easy on the consumer, lets make it harder.

yeah, that will go over well.

how about this: solve the problem rather than avoid it?  if distance is hard to calculate, well, work harder and come up with better ways to get that estimate.  its not really rocket science and 'close enough' IS good enough.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 03:23:55 pm
The Volt has a battery fuel gauge.  Something GM did “right”!  They show battery charge on a fuel looking gauge and display miles remaining in numeric form.  I really wish I could say something bad about the Volt due to my dislike of GM....  But I really can’t.  Quitte honestly I could not give them any advice on how to make any improvements on the car.  Even there software and phone app is very good.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 04, 2018, 04:59:11 pm
Thanks for sharing.  My wife has a Volt.  As much as I dislike American car companies, I have to admit the Volt is a very well designed and built car.  I never thought I would ever recommend someone to buy a GM car, but I would recommend getting a volt.  Now that I've driven an electric car I can't wait to get rid of my ICE and go electric.  I'm convinced hybrid plug-in is the way to go.

Hope you like you car.

You are paying C$1.80/litre?  Crud is my math right?  at $1.80/L that would be 6.84/gallon?  Wow.....  And then to covert the to USD (1.2) that would be $5.70 in USD.  Is that right?  I thought you Canadians had a lot of petroleum.

You have us beat on the electricty prices.  We are paying $0.45 kWhr for peak (2-9pm) and $0.12 for off-peak/night time.  (11pm - 7 am).

I would be intersted in seeing your video on OpenEVSE.  I installed 2 - 220v 50a circuits in my garage.  Purcahsed a Clipper Creek charger.  (+1)

How's the software on the VW?  Volt has it so you can program charging times.  It also used GPS cordinates so the Volt knows when you are charging at your home.  GM also has pretty good app for iPhone and Andriod to monitor the car, unlock doors, etc.

c$1.80 is for premium, it's about c$1.60 for regular, so about $4.56/USGal. Right now it's about US$3.70/gal across the border in WA state, and when I was in Texas last week (near the large refinery capacity) it was around US$2.79/usGal

Yes, Canada has a lot of petroleum, but sensibly we have highish taxes on it (compared with the US), which encourages people to buy smaller cars. However, both here in BC and in Quebec, there is an abundance of HydroElectric power, and electricity is silly cheap (compared to almost anywhere else in the world). My 8½c/kWh is just over half what you pay off-peak, and less than 1/6th what you pay peak.

Expensive gasoline & cheap electricity makes the e-car a no-brainer here.

Congrats on the eVW!  I love the instant torque of electric and never having to go to the gas station - priceless. Too bad it took dieselgate to get them on the right track.

The average price per kwh in the US is around $0.11 so a lot closer to BC Hydro rates.  Most of our electricity in the Pacific Northwest comes from Hydro, too. But even with "cheap" gas here, EVs still make a lot of sense.

By the way, my in-laws live by the Columbia River in eastern Washington and pay $0.04 per kwh because of some special deal with the Rocky Reach Dam operator.  The area is attracting bitcoin miners because of the cheap rates.  I keep telling him they should get an EV but he's kind of a red-neck and thinks EVs are some sort of liberal conspiracy.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 04, 2018, 05:08:33 pm
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?

that's quite a product design approach.  life is too easy on the consumer, lets make it harder.

yeah, that will go over well.

how about this: solve the problem rather than avoid it?  if distance is hard to calculate, well, work harder and come up with better ways to get that estimate.  its not really rocket science and 'close enough' IS good enough.

Yes.  Even for me (pretty technical, can actually still do calculations in my head), I prefer remaining range.  While actual range is dependent on wind, temperature, rain, elevation gain/loss, tire pressure, ... an approximate range is easy to work with. Kind of like a gas gauge.  I just know that on a cold, rainy day with a headwind and going uphill I will see lower efficiency and plan for it accordingly.  Oddly enough, ICE cars have a similar efficiency drop in that kind of weather and no one whines about "want to see actual gallons/liters left".  A very vague gas gauge with maybe 1/8 markings is considered just fine. Plus, most modern ICEs have distance to empty displays.

And, the number of EV owners that have been stranded because they ran their batteries down to zero rounds to, well, zero.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 05:59:33 pm
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?

that's quite a product design approach.  life is too easy on the consumer, lets make it harder.

yeah, that will go over well.

how about this: solve the problem rather than avoid it?  if distance is hard to calculate, well, work harder and come up with better ways to get that estimate.  its not really rocket science and 'close enough' IS good enough.

Yes.  Even for me (pretty technical, can actually still do calculations in my head), I prefer remaining range.  While actual range is dependent on wind, temperature, rain, elevation gain/loss, tire pressure, ... an approximate range is easy to work with. Kind of like a gas gauge.  I just know that on a cold, rainy day with a headwind and going uphill I will see lower efficiency and plan for it accordingly.  Oddly enough, ICE cars have a similar efficiency drop in that kind of weather and no one whines about "want to see actual gallons/liters left".  A very vague gas gauge with maybe 1/8 markings is considered just fine. Plus, most modern ICEs have distance to empty displays.

And, the number of EV owners that have been stranded because they ran their batteries down to zero rounds to, well, zero.

Gas or EV miles remaing depends on how one drives.  My Volt with a full charge says I have a 68 mile range with battery power.  But driving down the freeway at 90 I only get about 40 miles.

Tell your red neck friend to drive an EV for a few days.  I was anti-EV until my wife forced us to buy one.  Out of the 4 cars we own I prefer the EV over any of hte ICE.

Explain it like this to your red neck friend.  Driving an EV is a lot like sex.  At first your afraid of it.  But once you try it, you love it.  (Or maybe that's just me.)


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 04, 2018, 06:41:25 pm
Isn't cold weather a problem with battery range?
Surely it would only be a problem if its unpredictable. Its actually fairly predictable, so its just something that needs to be allowed for.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 04, 2018, 06:44:21 pm

Tell your red neck friend to drive an EV for a few days.  I was anti-EV until my wife forced us to buy one.  Out of the 4 cars we own I prefer the EV over any of hte ICE.

Explain it like this to your red neck friend.  Driving an EV is a lot like sex.  At first your afraid of it.  But once you try it, you love it.  (Or maybe that's just me.)
Yeah, I'm SURE that will persuade him.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 06:47:59 pm
Isn't cold weather a problem with battery range?
Surely it would only be a problem if its unpredictable. Its actually fairly predictable, so its just something that needs to be allowed for.

I would agree.  It's like knowing if one should wear a jacket or shorts in the winter.  While weather is unpredictable climate is.  We know in the winter the climate is cooler.  Yes there can be winter days when one can wear shorts, but one can predict throughout most of the winter one will need a jacket.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 04, 2018, 07:38:52 pm
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge! That has worked well for decades and by your own experience (which automatically adjusts for your driving style and terrain) you know how far you can drive given the fuel guage read out.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nfmax on May 04, 2018, 08:04:38 pm
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge! That has worked well for decades and by your own experience (which automatically adjusts for your driving style and terrain) you know how far you can drive given the fuel guage read out.
Most ICE cars have a remaining range display as well as a fuel quantity gauge
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 08:07:34 pm
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge! That has worked well for decades and by your own experience (which automatically adjusts for your driving style and terrain) you know how far you can drive given the fuel guage read out.

Reason for a fuel gauge is because the motor is always running consuming fuel.  It is quite possible and has happened one can have a full tank of fuel and run out of gas without moving a foot.  It's happed in large traffic jams.  There is no relationship between quanity of fuel and distance car can be driven with ICE.

EV different story.  One can sit in an EV for a month in a traffic jam not moving and the distane which can be driven is the same on day one as it is on day 30.  EV only use power when the car is moving, not while it is sitting in traffic.



Is that even possible in an i 

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 04, 2018, 08:20:08 pm
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge!
My current car does have a range display. All of them back to the one from model year 1988 had one.
Why should a range indicator be easier in an EV car than in an ICE car? Both know the remaining energy in the "tank" and can predict the remaining range based on the current drive style.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 08:39:18 pm
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge!
My current car does have a range display. All of them back to the one from model year 1988 had one.
Why should a range indicator be easier in an EV car than in an ICE car? Both know the remaining energy in the "tank" and can predict the remaining range based on the current drive style.

In an ICE vehicle the fuel gauge only has a loose correlation to the amount of miles the car can be driven.  If the car is started and left idling it will travel 0 miles.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 04, 2018, 08:58:13 pm
I've seen cars with a range indicator but the cars I've owned have all had fuel gauges. I've never really cared one way or another though since I almost always fill it up before it dips below about 1/3 tank. No reason to run it down to fumes unless I just *really* want to get straight home.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 04, 2018, 09:31:57 pm
In an ICE vehicle the fuel gauge only has a loose correlation to the amount of miles the car can be driven.
True, but it is exactly the same in an electric vehicle.

If the car is started and left idling it will travel 0 miles.
Left idling for over 40 hours...
If you just sit in an electric vehicle with the heater or AC running it will also travel 0 miles.
If you just leave the electric vehicle for a couple of weeks (or days in cold climate) it will also travel 0 miles (and perhaps need a new battery).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 04, 2018, 09:34:30 pm
Perhaps a more realistic measure, if you're cruising on a flat section of highway you'll get far better fuel economy than if you're going up a steep hill. My mileage varies pretty dramatically based on the driving I do, sometimes I can go 300+ miles on a tank, sometimes I'm running on fumes at 200. Either way, calculating the remaining range is something I do in my head based on the anticipated driving ahead, something the computer doesn't know.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 04, 2018, 09:38:55 pm
Perhaps a more realistic measure, if you're cruising on a flat section of highway you'll get far better fuel economy than if you're going up a steep hill. My mileage varies pretty dramatically based on the driving I do, sometimes I can go 300+ miles on a tank, sometimes I'm running on fumes at 200. Either way, calculating the remaining range is something I do in my head based on the anticipated driving ahead, something the computer doesn't know.
But this is also true for an electric vehicle.
The only thing a range gauge can do is present an estimate based on remaining energy (in battery or fuel tank) and the measured consumption for chosen time period (last 10 minutes or whatever).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 04, 2018, 09:41:22 pm
But this is also true for an electric vehicle.
The only thing a range gauge can do is present an estimate based on remaining energy (in battery or fuel tank) and the measured consumption for chosen time period (last 10 minutes or whatever).

I never said it wasn't. I think perhaps you're arguing against someone else using my quotes. Whether the fuel is electricity or liquid what I find most useful is a rough indication of the percentage of remaining capacity. If it also tries to estimate distance remaining that's fine too but it's not something I really care about.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 04, 2018, 10:13:40 pm

Reason for a fuel gauge is because the motor is always running consuming fuel.  It is quite possible and has happened one can have a full tank of fuel and run out of gas without moving a foot.  It's happed in large traffic jams.  There is no relationship between quanity of fuel and distance car can be driven with ICE.

EV different story.  One can sit in an EV for a month in a traffic jam not moving and the distane which can be driven is the same on day one as it is on day 30.  EV only use power when the car is moving, not while it is sitting in traffic.

I think the fuel gauge is more of a historical artifact.  It really was the only way to know how much "range" the early cars actually had and so it is expected even though remaining range really is more sensible.  If you sit at idle for hours, the remaining range display would drop as the fuel is consumed.  I also think that since fuel is a tangible thing and sold in gallons or litres, a volume gauge is expected by consumers (did that 15 gallons really fill my tank?). For mobile electronics we seem to care only what percentage charge the battery has.  Though for EVs, range seems to be what most people care about.

A somewhat funny story about how deeply entrenched gasoline is in the modern midset.  I'd had my Model S for about 6 months and some woman was very curious about it. "What kind of car is that?" "A Tesla."  "Who makes it?" "Uh, Tesla." I explained that it was all electric, explained it had a big battery and showed her the charge port.  Then she says, where do you put the gas?  I said, it doesn't take gas, it's like a cell phone, you charge it. Then I showed her the charge port again. Her face showed deep cognitive dissonance.  Then she said, well, yes you charge it but where do you put the gas? I said "no gas, electricity.  I haven't been to a gas station since I bought the car".  She was clearly struggling with the concept.  I smiled, got in the car and squeeked tires as I peeled out. I laughed all the way home.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 04, 2018, 10:45:49 pm
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge! That has worked well for decades and by your own experience (which automatically adjusts for your driving style and terrain) you know how far you can drive given the fuel guage read out.
Reason for a fuel gauge is because the motor is always running consuming fuel.  It is quite possible and has happened one can have a full tank of fuel and run out of gas without moving a foot.  It's happed in large traffic jams.  There is no relationship between quanity of fuel and distance car can be driven with ICE.

EV different story.  One can sit in an EV for a month in a traffic jam not moving and the distane which can be driven is the same on day one as it is on day 30.  EV only use power when the car is moving, not while it is sitting in traffic.
That is wrong. No, it is utter bullsh*t. An EV will use power even when it is sitting idle. The dashboard and all the other electronics (and probably heating/EC) will have to work even when not moving so there really isn't any difference between the two. If you turn an ICE car off completely you can also sit in a traffic jam for a month. But without heat/AC, no lights and no radio...

The bottom line is: range indicators (hence the word indicator!) cannot be made accurate enough to be useful. Think about it for a couple of hours before posting. It can't be done because it is trying to predict the future with too many unknowns.

Now throw range anxiety in the mix and the chaos is complete. Just as Boffin noted he used 'less range' than the car expected. But it can also be the other way around. Use 'more range' than expected and then people start to panic. Can I get home??? If you have a charge/fuel gauge then you quickly learn from experience if it is enough to make it home or not. Sometimes old technology just works together with our brains in a really clever way. IF accurate range gauges where possible they would have been fitted in every ICE car for decades and nobody even rememberer the good old fuel gauge.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 04, 2018, 10:55:23 pm
consumers of vehicles are not usually very technical.  you want to have consumers do their OWN calculations to come up with the TARGET metric of 'distance left' ?
Do ICE cars have a range indicator? No, they have a fuel gauge! That has worked well for decades and by your own experience (which automatically adjusts for your driving style and terrain) you know how far you can drive given the fuel guage read out.
Reason for a fuel gauge is because the motor is always running consuming fuel.  It is quite possible and has happened one can have a full tank of fuel and run out of gas without moving a foot.  It's happed in large traffic jams.  There is no relationship between quanity of fuel and distance car can be driven with ICE.

EV different story.  One can sit in an EV for a month in a traffic jam not moving and the distane which can be driven is the same on day one as it is on day 30.  EV only use power when the car is moving, not while it is sitting in traffic.
That is wrong. No, it is utter bullsh*t. An EV will use power even when it is sitting idle. The dashboard and all the other electronics (and probably heating/EC) will have to work even when not moving so there really isn't any difference between the two. If you turn an ICE car off completely you can also sit in a traffic jam for a month. But without heat/AC, no lights and no radio...

The bottom line is: range indicators (hence the word indicator!) cannot be made accurate enough to be useful. Think about it for a couple of hours before posting. It can't be done because it is trying to predict the future with too many unknowns.

There are two battery banks in the Volt.  One provides power to the drive train, and the other to is for the driver/passenger conviences.  So it is quite possible a Volt could sit in traffic not move an inch and the power train battereis would be fully charged.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 05, 2018, 04:12:37 am
That is wrong. No, it is utter bullsh*t. An EV will use power even when it is sitting idle. The dashboard and all the other electronics (and probably heating/EC) will have to work even when not moving so there really isn't any difference between the two. If you turn an ICE car off completely you can also sit in a traffic jam for a month. But without heat/AC, no lights and no radio...

The bottom line is: range indicators (hence the word indicator!) cannot be made accurate enough to be useful. Think about it for a couple of hours before posting. It can't be done because it is trying to predict the future with too many unknowns.

Now throw range anxiety in the mix and the chaos is complete. Just as Boffin noted he used 'less range' than the car expected. But it can also be the other way around. Use 'more range' than expected and then people start to panic. Can I get home??? If you have a charge/fuel gauge then you quickly learn from experience if it is enough to make it home or not. Sometimes old technology just works together with our brains in a really clever way. IF accurate range gauges where possible they would have been fitted in every ICE car for decades and nobody even rememberer the good old fuel gauge.

Have you actually driven an EV for any length of time more than just a test drive?  I have my doubts.  Drive an EV for a couple of weeks and see how your thought process changes.

Range displays in ICEs are actually pretty much ubiquitous now.  But, I don't see any real difference between range and volume (fuel or charge). Neither can be accurate because you can't predict driving conditions and driver behavior. But most of the algorithms take into account recent fuel/charge consumption and can be fairly good for consistent driving. When either range or volume gets small, you need to do something about it. A driver gets a sense of how far they can go with a give range or volume left.  Frankly, range doesn't need to be even close to precise to be useful, just like a fuel tank gauge is incredibly vague.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on May 05, 2018, 07:29:35 am
My car has a fuel gauge and a range remaining.  The range remaining adjusts based on average consumption (over a sliding window I assume).  When I had my car on a track it read 150miles when I arrived, but after 10 laps (12 miles), it read 50miles to go.  However I was still able to do another 10 laps and drive the 30 miles home with petrol to spare.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 10:31:40 am
I wonder if this is being done for two reasons.
1 - We have the technology to do this now.
2 - The earache of muscle cars which consume a gallon of gas full throttle in 45 seconds are a thing of the past and the car companies and possibly with government influence is using this to have us drive more efficiently/
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 05, 2018, 10:37:15 am
That is wrong. No, it is utter bullsh*t. An EV will use power even when it is sitting idle. The dashboard and all the other electronics (and probably heating/EC) will have to work even when not moving so there really isn't any difference between the two. If you turn an ICE car off completely you can also sit in a traffic jam for a month. But without heat/AC, no lights and no radio...

The bottom line is: range indicators (hence the word indicator!) cannot be made accurate enough to be useful. Think about it for a couple of hours before posting. It can't be done because it is trying to predict the future with too many unknowns.

Now throw range anxiety in the mix and the chaos is complete. Just as Boffin noted he used 'less range' than the car expected. But it can also be the other way around. Use 'more range' than expected and then people start to panic. Can I get home??? If you have a charge/fuel gauge then you quickly learn from experience if it is enough to make it home or not. Sometimes old technology just works together with our brains in a really clever way. IF accurate range gauges where possible they would have been fitted in every ICE car for decades and nobody even rememberer the good old fuel gauge.

Have you actually driven an EV for any length of time more than just a test drive?  I have my doubts.  Drive an EV for a couple of weeks and see how your thought process changes.

Range displays in ICEs are actually pretty much ubiquitous now.  But, I don't see any real difference between range and volume (fuel or charge). .... just like a fuel tank gauge is incredibly vague.
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process. I'm just pointing out a problem. The fact is that for both EV and ICE the energy consumption can be measured accurately. But as Paulca already noted the range prediction is always based on the past and not the future. IMHO this is a problem for widespread EV adoption because it makes EVs unreliable (IIRC some people even returned their EVs to the dealer and got their money back because of this).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 05, 2018, 05:07:41 pm
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process. I'm just pointing out a problem. The fact is that for both EV and ICE the energy consumption can be measured accurately. But as Paulca already noted the range prediction is always based on the past and not the future. IMHO this is a problem for widespread EV adoption because it makes EVs unreliable (IIRC some people even returned their EVs to the dealer and got their money back because of this).

Not about EVs but it is about EVs??

I think you are trying way too hard to come up with reasons against EVs. Frankly, range display is no different for EVs than ICEs.  It is only approximate due to numerous well flogged dead horse factors. I seriously doubt it was ever claimed to be different.

I'd like to see your references for people returning EVs because of the lack of "accurate range indication". That just doesn't pass the sniff test. It's certainly not an issue in 2018.  I'd believe people returned early EVs because of short max range (<100 miles or 160 km is a problem, IMHO) but lack of accurate range remaining indication, not likely.  I think it's more likely that people refused to buy an EV that didn't have enough range.  200 miles seems to be about the sweet spot.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 05, 2018, 05:35:48 pm
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process. I'm just pointing out a problem. The fact is that for both EV and ICE the energy consumption can be measured accurately. But as Paulca already noted the range prediction is always based on the past and not the future. IMHO this is a problem for widespread EV adoption because it makes EVs unreliable (IIRC some people even returned their EVs to the dealer and got their money back because of this).

Not about EVs but it is about EVs??
Put your reading glasses on:
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 05, 2018, 06:13:42 pm
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process. I'm just pointing out a problem. The fact is that for both EV and ICE the energy consumption can be measured accurately. But as Paulca already noted the range prediction is always based on the past and not the future. IMHO this is a problem for widespread EV adoption because it makes EVs unreliable (IIRC some people even returned their EVs to the dealer and got their money back because of this).
While a few ICE cars show the number of litres of fuel in the tank, most just give a vague analogue measure of the fraction of the tank occupied by fuel. What all modern cars, ICE and EV, give as a precise measurement is an estimate of remaining distance to an empty tank or battery, based on historic information, and they show the miles/kilometres to that point. If you believe the future of a car is likely to be different from its past, see a physics teacher. These estimates are not perfect, but they are what people need. If you are driving an unfamiliar car the amount of fuel remaining doesn't mean a lot, but distance to empty tank is meaningful to all. We all know that if we are heavy footed we won't get the distance displayed. Only a very naive person would expect otherwise. Its a good starting point for estimating where you need to find your next gas station, though.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 06:37:06 pm
That is wrong. No, it is utter bullsh*t. An EV will use power even when it is sitting idle. The dashboard and all the other electronics (and probably heating/EC) will have to work even when not moving so there really isn't any difference between the two. If you turn an ICE car off completely you can also sit in a traffic jam for a month. But without heat/AC, no lights and no radio...

The bottom line is: range indicators (hence the word indicator!) cannot be made accurate enough to be useful. Think about it for a couple of hours before posting. It can't be done because it is trying to predict the future with too many unknowns.

Now throw range anxiety in the mix and the chaos is complete. Just as Boffin noted he used 'less range' than the car expected. But it can also be the other way around. Use 'more range' than expected and then people start to panic. Can I get home??? If you have a charge/fuel gauge then you quickly learn from experience if it is enough to make it home or not. Sometimes old technology just works together with our brains in a really clever way. IF accurate range gauges where possible they would have been fitted in every ICE car for decades and nobody even rememberer the good old fuel gauge.

Have you actually driven an EV for any length of time more than just a test drive?  I have my doubts.  Drive an EV for a couple of weeks and see how your thought process changes.

Range displays in ICEs are actually pretty much ubiquitous now.  But, I don't see any real difference between range and volume (fuel or charge). .... just like a fuel tank gauge is incredibly vague.
Sorry but this is not about EV versus ICE so there is no need to adjust any thought process. I'm just pointing out a problem. The fact is that for both EV and ICE the energy consumption can be measured accurately. But as Paulca already noted the range prediction is always based on the past and not the future. IMHO this is a problem for widespread EV adoption because it makes EVs unreliable (IIRC some people even returned their EVs to the dealer and got their money back because of this).

There no problem......  Ever here the phrase, "Youf mileage may vary." ?   Applies to both ICE or EV. 


Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.



 





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 05, 2018, 06:45:06 pm
Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.
Repeating it doesn't make BS smell less foul. Your Volt needs power to supply the electronics. Google tells me that the secondary battery is only powering non-essential systems which leaves the main battery to power essential systems and thus lose charge even when sitting still in a traffic jam. Unless you shut the entire car down but an ICE based car is just the same. You don't have to leave the engine of an ICE car running idle in a long traffic jam.

@coppice: I agree with you and driving in a strange car is definitely a reason to make sure it is topped up before leaving and knowing it's range in order not take any chances. However what I see is that when it comes to EVs the remaining range is used much more prominently compared to ICE cars while the inaccuracies and problems are still the same. See the article the NY times journalist wrote about driving a Tesla during the winter. It is all about managing expectations and IMHO it is better to show a vague indication so people take precautions than showing an exact number which has a large error.
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 07:00:58 pm
Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.
Repeating it doesn't make BS smell less foul. Your Volt needs power to supply the electronics. Google tells me that the secondary battery is only powering non-essential systems which leaves the main battery to power essential systems and thus lose charge even when sitting still in a traffic jam. Unless you shut the entire car down but an ICE based car is just the same. You don't have to leave the engine of an ICE car running idle in a long traffic jam.


You explination doesn't pass the BS smell test.  Try learnign about EV cars and how they are designed.  Interesting you trust what Goolge is telling you.  Guess it must be true, right?  Try Googling Free Energy.  Becase that's what my Volt has when sitting in traffic.

My statement was an ICE sitting in traffic buns fuel while sitting in traffic.  Instead of moving the car and getting MPG the fuel is converted to heat energy.

If an EV is not moving how are the pwer train batteries losing energy? And thus reducing its' range?  Where exactly are those electrons going?  EV while sitting in traffic do not prduce heat energy like ICE.

Are you saying EVs power train battereis are losing change to anti-free energy?

If the car's not moving, the power train batteries aren't being discharged.  That passed the BS test.

I have sat in traffic for hundreds of hours and I have yet seen any ICE driver turn their engine off to save any hydrocarbons.  On the otherhand when I'm sitting in traffic in my Volt I'm not consumting any watts from the pwertrain battereis.  Now that passes the BS test and onbeys the laws of thermodynamic and physics.



 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 05, 2018, 07:43:27 pm
Try Googling Free Energy.  Becase that's what my Volt has when sitting in traffic.
For your explanations to be true your Volt has to have some of that magic Free Energy.

AC, heating, lights, computers, navigation system, entertainment system, seat heating, battery cooling/heating, phone charging, etc all require energy when stationary. You can't make that fact disappear by saying that those components are supplied from the 12V lead acid battery as that battery has to be charged by energy taken from the big battery. So, unless your Volt has solved the problem of free energy it will drain the big battery when sitting in traffic.
 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 05, 2018, 07:49:07 pm
I have sat in traffic for hundreds of hours and I have yet seen any ICE driver turn their engine off to save any hydrocarbons.
Start-stop systems on ICE cars have been standard for a while now so there you go.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 07:54:05 pm
Try Googling Free Energy.  Becase that's what my Volt has when sitting in traffic.
For your explanations to be true your Volt has to have some of that magic Free Energy.

AC, heating, lights, computers, navigation system, entertainment system, seat heating, battery cooling/heating, phone charging, etc all require energy when stationary. You can't make that fact disappear by saying that those components are supplied from the 12V lead acid battery as that battery has to be charged by energy taken from the big battery. So, unless your Volt has solved the problem of free energy it will drain the big battery when sitting in traffic.

Dude did you not read the two other posts?  NO!  You are wrong.   

Lights, computers, navigation system, entertainment system, seat heating, phone charging are NOT Let me say that again, NOT powered by the drive train batteries.  If the drive train batteries ARE NOT powering any of these systems there is no decrease in range or miles the car can be driven when sitting. 

Can't say that about an ICE.  An ICE when running is always consuming fuel in traffic which is continually decreasing the range or amount of miels the car can be driven when in traffic.

 




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 05, 2018, 08:12:24 pm
Wait a second, if they're not powered by the drive train batteries then what are they powered by and where does that energy come from? If this is a vehicle with both electric and ICE then those accessories will be powered by one of the other system and either way running them is going to decrease range to some degree, the laws of energy mandate that. If you're sitting in traffic running all that stuff you absolutely are consuming energy that comes from *somewhere*. I do suspect though that the energy consumed by all this stuff is considerably less than the energy consumed by idling a conventional ICE.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 05, 2018, 08:32:18 pm
Wait a second, if they're not powered by the drive train batteries then what are they powered by and where does that energy come from? If this is a vehicle with both electric and ICE then those accessories will be powered by one of the other system and either way running them is going to decrease range to some degree, the laws of energy mandate that. If you're sitting in traffic running all that stuff you absolutely are consuming energy that comes from *somewhere*. I do suspect though that the energy consumed by all this stuff is considerably less than the energy consumed by idling a conventional ICE.
\
As has been stated several times EVs or at least the Volt has 2 banks of batteries.  One for the power train and another for the creature comforts.  In a Volt one can have a fully charged power train battery bank and not be able to power-on the car if the other battery bank is dead.  They are completely independent of each other. 

Just how much energy do you think it takes to pwoer an EV when stopped in traffic?  All that's being powered during daylight hours are the computers, one display and in my case the sound system.  Is that even 100 watts?  (I don't know, but it's not a lot.)  Now compare that to an ICE.  How much heat is being generated by the running enging sitting in traffic?  Again IDK for sure, but I'm guessing 2,000 - 5,000 watts?  I'm thinking probably more.

I know when I park my ICE car in the garage the entire garage heats up.  WHen I park my EV there's no increase in temperature.

Use some critical thinking skills.  ICE cars when running generate a tremedous amout of heat.  Aren't ICE only 20% or less efficient? 
How efficient is an electric motor?  Not eactly sure but aren't they 75% or more efficent?  And then EVs have regenitive breaking, so KE gets coverneted back to PE when slowing down.  To slow an ICE down only way to do it is to generate more heat with the breaking system which decreased range.

Does that pass your BS test?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 05, 2018, 08:40:26 pm
Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.
Repeating it doesn't make BS smell less foul. Your Volt needs power to supply the electronics. Google tells me that the secondary battery is only powering non-essential systems which leaves the main battery to power essential systems and thus lose charge even when sitting still in a traffic jam. Unless you shut the entire car down but an ICE based car is just the same. You don't have to leave the engine of an ICE car running idle in a long traffic jam.

@coppice: I agree with you and driving in a strange car is definitely a reason to make sure it is topped up before leaving and knowing it's range in order not take any chances. However what I see is that when it comes to EVs the remaining range is used much more prominently compared to ICE cars while the inaccuracies and problems are still the same. See the article the NY times journalist wrote about driving a Tesla during the winter. It is all about managing expectations and IMHO it is better to show a vague indication so people take precautions than showing an exact number which has a large error.
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html)

You should read the follow up articles on that.  The author deliberately ran it out.  Tesla read the black box data and published it showing that he drove past at least one SC when he was almost out. The car at that point would have been flashing "charge" at him as he drove.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Neilm on May 05, 2018, 08:45:36 pm
Aren't ICE only 20% or less efficient? 
How efficient is an electric motor?  Not eactly sure but aren't they 75% or more efficent?

Electric motors are usually over 90% - not sure what losses there would be in the gearing of the motor to the wheels (contry to popular thought there is a gearbox - usually a fixed ratio).

IIRC, efficient ICE cars engines are in the region of 30% - possibly higher at specific RPMs
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 05, 2018, 08:55:22 pm
Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.
Repeating it doesn't make BS smell less foul. Your Volt needs power to supply the electronics. Google tells me that the secondary battery is only powering non-essential systems which leaves the main battery to power essential systems and thus lose charge even when sitting still in a traffic jam. Unless you shut the entire car down but an ICE based car is just the same. You don't have to leave the engine of an ICE car running idle in a long traffic jam.

@coppice: I agree with you and driving in a strange car is definitely a reason to make sure it is topped up before leaving and knowing it's range in order not take any chances. However what I see is that when it comes to EVs the remaining range is used much more prominently compared to ICE cars while the inaccuracies and problems are still the same. See the article the NY times journalist wrote about driving a Tesla during the winter. It is all about managing expectations and IMHO it is better to show a vague indication so people take precautions than showing an exact number which has a large error.
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html)
You should read the follow up articles on that.  The author deliberately ran it out.  Tesla read the black box data and published it showing that he drove past at least one SC when he was almost out. The car at that point would have been flashing "charge" at him as he drove.
I already read the follow up article with the graphs from Tesla themselves showing that actual range was dropping faster than predicted range. There is no argueing around the fact that happened. If Tesla would have told the author of the article to take the range indication with a large grain of salt and add at least 20% extra then he wouldn't not have ran out. Again: managing expectations! If you show people a number which can be perceived as accurate they'll assume it is correct.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 05, 2018, 09:03:07 pm
As has been stated several times EVs or at least the Volt has 2 banks of batteries.  One for the power train and another for the creature comforts.  In a Volt one can have a fully charged power train battery bank and not be able to power-on the car if the other battery bank is dead.  They are completely independent of each other. 

Does that pass your BS test?
I think you really need to read about how cars actually work. What you wrote doesn't make any sense and it is also wrong. The Volt can still drive if the secondary (12V) battery is dead which means that the primary electronics and mandatory stuff like lights are powered from the drive train battery. Ergo it will use power when it is sitting idle while being switched on. There is no way around that. Besides that the battery management electronics will slowly but steadily drain the battery as well. It will take long but it will happen.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 05, 2018, 09:07:26 pm
Dude did you not read the two other posts?  NO!  You are wrong.   

Lights, computers, navigation system, entertainment system, seat heating, phone charging are NOT Let me say that again, NOT powered by the drive train batteries.
So we have two options.
1) The "creature comfort battery" has a very large capacity and can power AC, heating, vehicle electronics (a couple of hundred watts in modern vehicles) while standing still in a traffic jam for weeks.
2) The "creature comfort battery" is charged from the "drive train battery" and the range is reduced even if standing still in a traffic jam.

http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?5409-Auxillary-Battery (http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?5409-Auxillary-Battery)
Quote
During operation, the 12 Volt battery's voltage is maintained by the "accessory power module" (APM) whenever the Volt is "ON", and maintained by the main battery charger assembly (On-Board Charging Module) when the Volt is plugged in and charging is ACTIVE (steady green LED). The APM is a DC to DC converter that takes high voltage (380V?) from the Volt's traction battery and converts it to ~13.0-15.5 Volts in order to maintain the low voltage accessory loads (including the Volt's computers and modules). It also charges the 12V system's battery, also know as an "absorbant glass mat" (AGM) battery. The 12V battery's voltage is maintained when the car is running or charging (by the APM or charger, respectively), but not when parked and unplugged.

Am I still wrong?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 06, 2018, 12:47:56 am
Thing is with an ICE if it's sitting in traffic it's comsuming fuel producing heat without going anywhere.  An EV can sit in traffic and not cosume any energy.
Repeating it doesn't make BS smell less foul. Your Volt needs power to supply the electronics. Google tells me that the secondary battery is only powering non-essential systems which leaves the main battery to power essential systems and thus lose charge even when sitting still in a traffic jam. Unless you shut the entire car down but an ICE based car is just the same. You don't have to leave the engine of an ICE car running idle in a long traffic jam.

@coppice: I agree with you and driving in a strange car is definitely a reason to make sure it is topped up before leaving and knowing it's range in order not take any chances. However what I see is that when it comes to EVs the remaining range is used much more prominently compared to ICE cars while the inaccuracies and problems are still the same. See the article the NY times journalist wrote about driving a Tesla during the winter. It is all about managing expectations and IMHO it is better to show a vague indication so people take precautions than showing an exact number which has a large error.
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/automobiles/stalled-on-the-ev-highway.html)
You should read the follow up articles on that.  The author deliberately ran it out.  Tesla read the black box data and published it showing that he drove past at least one SC when he was almost out. The car at that point would have been flashing "charge" at him as he drove.
I already read the follow up article with the graphs from Tesla themselves showing that actual range was dropping faster than predicted range. There is no argueing around the fact that happened. If Tesla would have told the author of the article to take the range indication with a large grain of salt and add at least 20% extra then he wouldn't not have ran out. Again: managing expectations! If you show people a number which can be perceived as accurate they'll assume it is correct.
You are grasping at straws. The car said he should charge and he didn't. In what world would that not be final authority? In a gas car if the low fuel indicator was lit, it wouldn't be the driver's fault he ran out of gas???

And by the way, all the Tesla literature since 2012 (probably earlier) has said range is dependent on a number of factors - weather, terrain, driver behavior.  But by all means, ignore that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 06, 2018, 01:08:21 am
\
As has been stated several times EVs or at least the Volt has 2 banks of batteries.  One for the power train and another for the creature comforts.  In a Volt one can have a fully charged power train battery bank and not be able to power-on the car if the other battery bank is dead.  They are completely independent of each other. 

Just how much energy do you think it takes to pwoer an EV when stopped in traffic?  All that's being powered during daylight hours are the computers, one display and in my case the sound system.  Is that even 100 watts?  (I don't know, but it's not a lot.)  Now compare that to an ICE.  How much heat is being generated by the running enging sitting in traffic?  Again IDK for sure, but I'm guessing 2,000 - 5,000 watts?  I'm thinking probably more.

I know when I park my ICE car in the garage the entire garage heats up.  WHen I park my EV there's no increase in temperature.

Use some critical thinking skills.  ICE cars when running generate a tremedous amout of heat.  Aren't ICE only 20% or less efficient? 
How efficient is an electric motor?  Not eactly sure but aren't they 75% or more efficent?  And then EVs have regenitive breaking, so KE gets coverneted back to PE when slowing down.  To slow an ICE down only way to do it is to generate more heat with the breaking system which decreased range.

Does that pass your BS test?

I don't know what's being argued here, I'm one of the pro-EV guys, my only point was that running accessories while sitting stationary will absolutely effect the range of the car. Any car carries with it a finite amount of stored energy, whether that is stored in gasoline/diesel or batteries doesn't matter, running any sort of accessories is going to consume some of this energy. Is it enough to matter? I'd say that depends. Does electric or ICE have the advantage here? Frankly I don't know, but I would bet that in warm weather electric comes out on top but in cold weather ICE may have an advantage since you've got all that waste heat anyway you can have all the cabin heat you want for "free" rather than consuming a considerable amount of battery power operating a heater or heat pump. How much energy is burned up idling an ICE is easy enough to calculate if anyone here has a car that shows real time fuel consumption, we know how many kWh is in a gallon of fuel, although while that would be interesting to know, even if it is (as I suspect) vastly higher than the same situation in an EV, that doesn't change the fact that even with the EV the value is non-zero.

I'm a fan of EV's, that isn't the point. My only argument is you can't have something for nothing, you can't sit there consuming energy without getting that energy from somewhere and whether ICE or electric it's eventually going to come from a common pool that could go toward propulsion instead. Fortunately sitting stationary powering accessories is not a particularly desirable use case.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 02:45:06 am
As has been stated several times EVs or at least the Volt has 2 banks of batteries.  One for the power train and another for the creature comforts.  In a Volt one can have a fully charged power train battery bank and not be able to power-on the car if the other battery bank is dead.  They are completely independent of each other. 

Does that pass your BS test?
I think you really need to read about how cars actually work. What you wrote doesn't make any sense and it is also wrong. The Volt can still drive if the secondary (12V) battery is dead which means that the primary electronics and mandatory stuff like lights are powered from the drive train battery. Ergo it will use power when it is sitting idle while being switched on. There is no way around that. Besides that the battery management electronics will slowly but steadily drain the battery as well. It will take long but it will happen.

I have a Volt and I did have a dead  secondary (12V) battery when the drive train batteries were at 85% charge.  The car would not power up and the drive train batteries did not charge the 12v secondary. Only way to get the car moving was to recharge the 12 secondary battery.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 02:48:47 am
Dude did you not read the two other posts?  NO!  You are wrong.   

Lights, computers, navigation system, entertainment system, seat heating, phone charging are NOT Let me say that again, NOT powered by the drive train batteries.
So we have two options.
1) The "creature comfort battery" has a very large capacity and can power AC, heating, vehicle electronics (a couple of hundred watts in modern vehicles) while standing still in a traffic jam for weeks.
2) The "creature comfort battery" is charged from the "drive train battery" and the range is reduced even if standing still in a traffic jam.

http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?5409-Auxillary-Battery (http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?5409-Auxillary-Battery)
Quote
During operation, the 12 Volt battery's voltage is maintained by the "accessory power module" (APM) whenever the Volt is "ON", and maintained by the main battery charger assembly (On-Board Charging Module) when the Volt is plugged in and charging is ACTIVE (steady green LED). The APM is a DC to DC converter that takes high voltage (380V?) from the Volt's traction battery and converts it to ~13.0-15.5 Volts in order to maintain the low voltage accessory loads (including the Volt's computers and modules). It also charges the 12V system's battery, also know as an "absorbant glass mat" (AGM) battery. The 12V battery's voltage is maintained when the car is running or charging (by the APM or charger, respectively), but not when parked and unplugged.

Am I still wrong?

Looks like it.  That post was from eight years ago.  Car has been redesigned. 

Why not buy one so you can see for yourself what you are getting all wrong.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 03:02:46 am
\
As has been stated several times EVs or at least the Volt has 2 banks of batteries.  One for the power train and another for the creature comforts.  In a Volt one can have a fully charged power train battery bank and not be able to power-on the car if the other battery bank is dead.  They are completely independent of each other. 

Just how much energy do you think it takes to pwoer an EV when stopped in traffic?  All that's being powered during daylight hours are the computers, one display and in my case the sound system.  Is that even 100 watts?  (I don't know, but it's not a lot.)  Now compare that to an ICE.  How much heat is being generated by the running enging sitting in traffic?  Again IDK for sure, but I'm guessing 2,000 - 5,000 watts?  I'm thinking probably more.

I know when I park my ICE car in the garage the entire garage heats up.  WHen I park my EV there's no increase in temperature.

Use some critical thinking skills.  ICE cars when running generate a tremedous amout of heat.  Aren't ICE only 20% or less efficient? 
How efficient is an electric motor?  Not eactly sure but aren't they 75% or more efficent?  And then EVs have regenitive breaking, so KE gets coverneted back to PE when slowing down.  To slow an ICE down only way to do it is to generate more heat with the breaking system which decreased range.

Does that pass your BS test?

I don't know what's being argued here, I'm one of the pro-EV guys, my only point was that running accessories while sitting stationary will absolutely effect the range of the car. Any car carries with it a finite amount of stored energy, whether that is stored in gasoline/diesel or batteries doesn't matter, running any sort of accessories is going to consume some of this energy. Is it enough to matter? I'd say that depends. Does electric or ICE have the advantage here? Frankly I don't know, but I would bet that in warm weather electric comes out on top but in cold weather ICE may have an advantage since you've got all that waste heat anyway you can have all the cabin heat you want for "free" rather than consuming a considerable amount of battery power operating a heater or heat pump. How much energy is burned up idling an ICE is easy enough to calculate if anyone here has a car that shows real time fuel consumption, we know how many kWh is in a gallon of fuel, although while that would be interesting to know, even if it is (as I suspect) vastly higher than the same situation in an EV, that doesn't change the fact that even with the EV the value is non-zero.

I'm a fan of EV's, that isn't the point. My only argument is you can't have something for nothing, you can't sit there consuming energy without getting that energy from somewhere and whether ICE or electric it's eventually going to come from a common pool that could go toward propulsion instead. Fortunately sitting stationary powering accessories is not a particularly desirable use case.


James_s  Someone is saying if an ICE and a EV are stuck in traffic the range each would be able to travel before refueling would decrease.  I have an EV and if I'm sitting in traffic the only energy I'm consuming is to power the computers and sound system.  Yes it takes energy to power those devices but how much?  100 or 200 watts?  If the car's not moving the drive train batteries are not being discharged. 

Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 

If I recall correctly an ICE car with a full tank of gas just left ideling will run out of fuel in about 12 hours.  An EV could sit in traffic for a month or more and still have the amout of range.  The energy in the drive train batteries isn't being consumed so one has full range.  Yes if one is listening to the sound system and the on board computers have to get power from somewhere....  But just how much or shoudl I say how little energy is that if compared to the energy to move the car.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: jonovid on May 06, 2018, 03:07:17 am
at the end of the day its batteries that limit electric vehicles.   :horse:   cold fusion is yet to save the day.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 03:13:25 am
at the end of the day its batteries that limit electric vehicles.   :horse:   cold fusion is yet to save the day.

No disagreement, but there is one exception.  If people who have EV only drive downhill they won't use any power from the batteries.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 06, 2018, 05:12:52 am
James_s  Someone is saying if an ICE and a EV are stuck in traffic the range each would be able to travel before refueling would decrease.  I have an EV and if I'm sitting in traffic the only energy I'm consuming is to power the computers and sound system.  Yes it takes energy to power those devices but how much?  100 or 200 watts?  If the car's not moving the drive train batteries are not being discharged. 

Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 

If I recall correctly an ICE car with a full tank of gas just left ideling will run out of fuel in about 12 hours.  An EV could sit in traffic for a month or more and still have the amout of range.  The energy in the drive train batteries isn't being consumed so one has full range.  Yes if one is listening to the sound system and the on board computers have to get power from somewhere....  But just how much or shoudl I say how little energy is that if compared to the energy to move the car.

This is getting pedantic but the energy has to ultimately come from the traction batteries, otherwise what is there? A separate battery pack with enough capacity to run all the lighting, electronics, heating/AC, navigation, computers, etc that is only charged independently by the charger when you plug in the car? That doesn't make any sense, if there is a separate battery there has got to be a DC-DC converter fed off the traction battery to charge it, otherwise I'd have to say it's a very strange design decision. Would it really be logical for it to be possible to completely deplete the battery powering all your accessories, computers and lighting while you've still got a giant traction battery with plenty of charge sitting there uselessly unable to power up the car's electronics?

Regarding how much energy is used, I suspect this is going to depend heavily on whether the HVAC system is used. Whether heating or cooling that's going to use a lot of energy. I've heard figures in the range of 2 tons for the refrigeration capacity of a typical car AC system which means something around 2HP, roughly 2kW and I'm betting all currently sold EVs use the AC as a heat pump to provide heat too. I expect most EVs now have LED headlamps so that's what, 30-50W for the pair? All the other electronics maybe a few hundred Watts, seat heater 100-200W, it could easily be 2-3kW worth of load. Tiny compared to the energy required to move the car, but not zero.

It's probably not very significant in real world situations, but I doubt you could sit in traffic for months either, likely closer to a few days. Still likely to come out ahead compared to ICE but you can't say something doesn't consume any energy in a forum full of engineers and not expect someone to nitpick.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 05:28:53 am
James_s  Someone is saying if an ICE and a EV are stuck in traffic the range each would be able to travel before refueling would decrease.  I have an EV and if I'm sitting in traffic the only energy I'm consuming is to power the computers and sound system.  Yes it takes energy to power those devices but how much?  100 or 200 watts?  If the car's not moving the drive train batteries are not being discharged. 

Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 

If I recall correctly an ICE car with a full tank of gas just left ideling will run out of fuel in about 12 hours.  An EV could sit in traffic for a month or more and still have the amout of range.  The energy in the drive train batteries isn't being consumed so one has full range.  Yes if one is listening to the sound system and the on board computers have to get power from somewhere....  But just how much or shoudl I say how little energy is that if compared to the energy to move the car.

This is getting pedantic but the energy has to ultimately come from the traction batteries, otherwise what is there? A separate battery pack with enough capacity to run all the lighting, electronics, heating/AC, navigation, computers, etc that is only charged independently by the charger when you plug in the car? That doesn't make any sense, if there is a separate battery there has got to be a DC-DC converter fed off the traction battery to charge it, otherwise I'd have to say it's a very strange design decision. Would it really be logical for it to be possible to completely deplete the battery powering all your accessories, computers and lighting while you've still got a giant traction battery with plenty of charge sitting there uselessly unable to power up the car's electronics?

Regarding how much energy is used, I suspect this is going to depend heavily on whether the HVAC system is used. Whether heating or cooling that's going to use a lot of energy. I've heard figures in the range of 2 tons for the refrigeration capacity of a typical car AC system which means something around 2HP, roughly 2kW and I'm betting all currently sold EVs use the AC as a heat pump to provide heat too. I expect most EVs now have LED headlamps so that's what, 30-50W for the pair? All the other electronics maybe a few hundred Watts, seat heater 100-200W, it could easily be 2-3kW worth of load. Tiny compared to the energy required to move the car, but not zero.

It's probably not very significant in real world situations, but I doubt you could sit in traffic for months either, likely closer to a few days. Still likely to come out ahead compared to ICE but you can't say something doesn't consume any energy in a forum full of engineers and not expect someone to nitpick.

The Volt also has a gas engine.  I'm not sure, but I think the engine recharges the secondary battery.  I know the power train battery does not power the computer or lights.  We left the car with the flashers on when the power train battery was at 85%.  After about an hour the flasher lights had drained the secondary battery eventhoug the powertrain battery was almost at full chaarge.  To get the car going again the secondary battery had to be charged.

Where I have it's rare to use AC or a heater.  So with no heather of AC use how many watts do you think the car's computers and sound sytem would draw during the day?  Woudl it even be 500 watts?

 




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 06, 2018, 07:40:01 am
If I recall correctly an ICE car with a full tank of gas just left ideling will run out of fuel in about 12 hours.
The engine in my car is rather big but it only takes 1.4 liters per hour idling. However, the fuel tank is not that large, so it seems max idle time without refueling is about 40 hours. 40 hours with free heat in the winter.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 06, 2018, 08:18:12 am
Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 
ICE cars have start/stop systems which shut down the engine when the car isn't moving nowadays so your point is not valid.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 06, 2018, 09:01:42 am
Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 
ICE cars have start/stop systems which shut down the engine when the car isn't moving nowadays so your point is not valid.
Some cars have that feature. Most don't. In cars which do have it, many people find the need to disable it as the engine ages, as its gets quirky.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: woodchips on May 06, 2018, 10:20:54 am
Wow, what an extended discussion!

I think electric cars are it, but, I have never bought a new car and paying more than £25k for an electric car is simply impossible. So it is secondhand ones for me. Has anyone bought a secondhand EV? Other than from a main dealer, what was the experience like? What do you get for £3k, about what I can afford. For that in the UK you can buy a 10 year old car, possibly 70k miles, and if looked after will do another 10-15 years.

Other thoughts on EV.

On a hybrid, does anyone get problems with the unleaded fuel turning to glue after a time? It is said to be a problem but I haven't really faced it even with petrol generators not being used for months.

If you leave an EV for extended periods of time, does the battery discharge? Like your mobile phone, even with it off it needs charging every few days, not like my lamented Nokia 3310.

We have recently had a spate of bitterly cold, for the UK, weather. How much has the range dropped simply to run the 4-5kW of heating needed?

I am surprised that no one seems to have had problems with 10kg of copper charge cables disappearing over night. That is £40 of any ones money, and a whizz around the housing estate should turn up several cables. Good little earner.

What is the reality of towing, say, a 1 to 1.5 tonne trailer? A caravan is that weight but the air resistance is far larger than a simple platform trailer.

Whilst EVs have regererative braking, meaning the footbrake isn't used as much. What about the hydraulics simply seizing up? In winter with the salt is it possible for the brakes to simply stop working without being noticed?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 11:45:34 am
Now compare that to an ICE sitting in traffic.  How much energy/watts are being consumed to power the engine?  2,000?  5,000 watts? 
ICE cars have start/stop systems which shut down the engine when the car isn't moving nowadays so your point is not valid.


Not in the United State.  So your point doesn’t apply to here.

Plus you know ICE strat/stop systems are BS, right?

https://youtu.be/k159M8QhCIE
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 11:48:02 am
If I recall correctly an ICE car with a full tank of gas just left ideling will run out of fuel in about 12 hours.
The engine in my car is rather big but it only takes 1.4 liters per hour idling. However, the fuel tank is not that large, so it seems max idle time without refueling is about 40 hours. 40 hours with free heat in the winter.

How does that 40 hours of free what work for you in the summer when you are running the air conditioner which also generates more free heat for you?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 12:48:40 pm
Wow, what an extended discussion!

I think electric cars are it, but, I have never bought a new car and paying more than £25k for an electric car is simply impossible. So it is secondhand ones for me. Has anyone bought a secondhand EV? Other than from a main dealer, what was the experience like? What do you get for £3k, about what I can afford. For that in the UK you can buy a 10 year old car, possibly 70k miles, and if looked after will do another 10-15 years.

Other thoughts on EV.

On a hybrid, does anyone get problems with the unleaded fuel turning to glue after a time? It is said to be a problem but I haven't really faced it even with petrol generators not being used for months.

If you leave an EV for extended periods of time, does the battery discharge? Like your mobile phone, even with it off it needs charging every few days, not like my lamented Nokia 3310.

We have recently had a spate of bitterly cold, for the UK, weather. How much has the range dropped simply to run the 4-5kW of heating needed?

I am surprised that no one seems to have had problems with 10kg of copper charge cables disappearing over night. That is £40 of any ones money, and a whizz around the housing estate should turn up several cables. Good little earner.

What is the reality of towing, say, a 1 to 1.5 tonne trailer? A caravan is that weight but the air resistance is far larger than a simple platform trailer.

Whilst EVs have regererative braking, meaning the footbrake isn't used as much. What about the hydraulics simply seizing up? In winter with the salt is it possible for the brakes to simply stop working without being noticed?

Sounds liike someone has filled your brain with BS about electric cars. 

Let’s set the record straight for you.

Most people are not buying electric cars here in the US, they are leasing them for 3 years.  Why?  Cars  today are like cellphones.  Inprovements in technology and battery efficiency makes buying an electric car a bad idea.  In 3 years the the technology will have improved and like a 3 year old cell phone who want’s it?

Another reason is safety features.  Car safety improves with time.  In the US something like 40,000 - 50,000 die each year in automobile accidents.  You are more likely to die in an older car than a new one.

Then we have to talk about battery life.  The batteries in cars have a guaranteed 10 year life; but they do wear over time.  Cost to replace the batteries can be more than the car is worth.  So if one buys a 3 year old EV the batteries will have 30% or more wear on them.

Here in the US a lease payment is the same or less than a finance payment so it makes much more sense to lease than to buy.  If you really want a EV cas coming off lease are abundant and very affordable.

EV batteries do discharge over time, but no much.  We left our EV with 85% charge for 1.5 months while on vacation/holiday,  When we returned it had 85% charge.

It doesn’t get cold enough where I am for heat, but a post from someone in Canada where it gets cold said he looses about 10% battery range in the cold.  But if you have a hybrid you have a gas engine so realistily you buy a tank of petro a few miles sooner.

Gas in EVs which is the same gas used in ICE is the same.  It takes yers for it to go rancid.  With the type of driving we do we buy a tank of gas every two to three months.  I know of some EV drivers who purchase a tank once or twice a year.  Maybe where you are the quality of petro is poor.  So every few months drive the car using the engine.

Can you tow a trailer? Yup. But why?  Here in the US if one has a trailer or has more passengers we just rent a larger ICE car for the job.  I’ts very affordable.  If you tow a trailer every day/week an EV is the wrong tool for you.

Maybe you are made of money and don’t mind spending lots of money on cars.  I’m the opposite.  The amount off money one saves in fuel and maintenance with an EV is a lot compared to an ICE.  In one year we have saved thousands of dollars in not having to purchase as much petro.  Yes we are buying more electrity, but where we live and pay for electricity we can travel 4 or 5 miles on electricity where we could only travel one mile for the cost of petro.  And then add to the savings we don’t have to pay for all of added maintain expenses an ICE costs. 

All EVs have two breaking systems.  The regenerative and a breaking system like on any other car.  You will find with an EC car more of the undercarriage is protected from the elements unlike an ICE.  With ICE being more exposed to the elements and the salt one has to spend more money to maintain them.

All depends if you wan to spend more money on an ICE or less on an EV?  An EV might not be a good filt for your needs.  But for many of us who own EVs the money savings and the performance of an EV we will ever buy an ICE car again.




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 01:21:26 pm
Is this guy correct?  ICE car manufactures like Ford lrave out/remove life saving safety features in their cars for the European and Australian markets? 

https://youtu.be/eUvSWce6ZA4
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 06, 2018, 03:33:30 pm
With a colleague we were looking at second hand Nissan Leaf EV.
We both don’t do many Km but we need a car for children, shopping and our money generating hobbies. Plus, on his side, the tax laws in Holland (both state and local) make owning a low use small family size IC a bit expensive.

Taking into account predicted usage, cold weather and battery wear, the 2014 or newer Leaf was ideal...
We were very suprised to not be able to find a clean one under 10000€...
These thing are holding their price better than what the doomsayers predicted.

In any case, I still need a “big” car as I am renovating a house.
When we are done, we will get a second hand Leaf combined with rooftop solar and a battery.
I imagine that I am not alone in reaching this conclusion.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 06, 2018, 03:43:56 pm
Is this guy correct?  ICE car manufactures like Ford lrave out/remove life saving safety features in their cars for the European and Australian markets? 
He doesn't say what they omitted for Europe and Australia, but presumably they complied with the local regulations. Cars are not made in a generic manner. They are customised for each market. This is more that just altering the package of optional features offered, like leather sets and climate control. Often the manufacturer has 2 or more body shell options, and selects the appropriate one for the target market. Safety kit, like cameras and autonomous emergency braking, are very market dependent. All new cars in the US must now have a reversing camera. With the poor rear visibility of most modern cars this seems like a good safety feature for pedestrians in car parks, as well as helping to avoid bumps to surrounding cars. Other countries don't even seem to be considering making a reversing camera compulsory.

The bottom line is you need to look in detail to see if the manufacturer is being cavalier about safety, or if they are rationally responding to local conditions.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 06, 2018, 04:16:57 pm
Some cars have that feature. Most don't. In cars which do have it, many people find the need to disable it as the engine ages, as its gets quirky.

I've driven a couple of cars that had that ridiculous start/stop system and hated it. It works ok on a hybrid where you have the electric motor to start off the line but on a conventional ICE car produces an obnoxious lag and lurch that is especially noticeable in the typical stop & go traffic during busy times around here. Some of the earlier systems even shut off the engine while the AC is on and it starts blowing warm sticky air. Everyone I know who has one of those disables the system every time they get in the car, it won't stay turned off, you have to push the button every time. The whole thing is just a scam to exploit a loophole in the way emissions are measured, real world savings are negligible.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 04:39:21 pm
With a colleague we were looking at second hand Nissan Leaf EV.
We both don’t do many Km but we need a car for children, shopping and our money generating hobbies. Plus, on his side, the tax laws in Holland (both state and local) make owning a low use small family size IC a bit expensive.

Taking into account predicted usage, cold weather and battery wear, the 2014 or newer Leaf was ideal...
We were very suprised to not be able to find a clean one under 10000€...
These thing are holding their price better than what the doomsayers predicted.

In any case, I still need a “big” car as I am renovating a house.
When we are done, we will get a second hand Leaf combined with rooftop solar and a battery.
I imagine that I am not alone in reaching this conclusion.

Interesting how things are different in other countries.  In the US the Leaf is not that popular.  Out of curiosity I'm looking at prices here for a 2014 and they are around $10,000 to $13,000 USD asking price.

Can you lease?  The trend here in California is to lease EVs.  The monthly payment is the same or less than financing the purchase of a car.  And like smartphones the technology, software and battery life continues to change that it worth it to get a "new" car every 3 - 4 years.  In California we receive about $10,000 in tax credits and cash rebates.

Are battery systems worth it?  According to Dave battery systems (lead acid) or only 40% efficient.  That means for every 10 kWhr the your solar panels produce and store in the batteries you'll only get 6 kWhrs back.

I've asked many people if battery systems make financial sense.  Everyone says it does, but then no one has show the math calculations to support their claims.


 



 

 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 06, 2018, 05:54:33 pm
Some cars have that feature. Most don't. In cars which do have it, many people find the need to disable it as the engine ages, as its gets quirky.

I've driven a couple of cars that had that ridiculous start/stop system and hated it. It works ok on a hybrid where you have the electric motor to start off the line but on a conventional ICE car produces an obnoxious lag and lurch that is especially noticeable in the typical stop & go traffic during busy times around here. Some of the earlier systems even shut off the engine while the AC is on and it starts blowing warm sticky air. Everyone I know who has one of those disables the system every time they get in the car, it won't stay turned off, you have to push the button every time. The whole thing is just a scam to exploit a loophole in the way emissions are measured, real world savings are negligible.
In the rental cars I've driven with stop/start the engine keeps starting and stopping when you are in a traffic jam, to keep the battery topped up and the AC cool. At night, with the headlights and HVAC services running this endless starting and stopping gets pretty annoying, and doesn't seem like it can be very good for engine wear. Hybrids try to keeps the engine running in long bursts, to minimise this issue, but the non hybrid start/stop systems I've encountered don't.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 06, 2018, 06:07:55 pm
With a colleague we were looking at second hand Nissan Leaf EV.
We both don’t do many Km but we need a car for children, shopping and our money generating hobbies. Plus, on his side, the tax laws in Holland (both state and local) make owning a low use small family size IC a bit expensive.

Taking into account predicted usage, cold weather and battery wear, the 2014 or newer Leaf was ideal...
We were very suprised to not be able to find a clean one under 10000€...
These thing are holding their price better than what the doomsayers predicted.

In any case, I still need a “big” car as I am renovating a house.
When we are done, we will get a second hand Leaf combined with rooftop solar and a battery.
I imagine that I am not alone in reaching this conclusion.

Interesting how things are different in other countries.  In the US the Leaf is not that popular.  Out of curiosity I'm looking at prices here for a 2014 and they are around $10,000 to $13,000 USD asking price.

Can you lease?  The trend here in California is to lease EVs.  The monthly payment is the same or less than financing the purchase of a car.  And like smartphones the technology, software and battery life continues to change that it worth it to get a "new" car every 3 - 4 years.  In California we receive about $10,000 in tax credits and cash rebates.

Are battery systems worth it?  According to Dave battery systems (lead acid) or only 40% efficient.  That means for every 10 kWhr the your solar panels produce and store in the batteries you'll only get 6 kWhrs back.

I've asked many people if battery systems make financial sense.  Everyone says it does, but then no one has show the math calculations to support their claims.
I don’t lease or borrow money to get stuff. Leasing is renting that has a slick lawyer friend and is usually more expensive than owning.
Apart from this, I don’t know how lease contracts are written in the US, but here, finding a deserted crossroad to sell your soul to the Devil is better option.

I intend to wear this car to the ground, like the Iphone4 that I still use today. So any resale is a bonus, not a need. It will carry dirty kids, their dust covered dad and building/furniture material. Very little freeway, rarely will it reach a max of 120km of calm driving a day.
For second hand, there are no incentives, apart from not having certain yearly taxes and not having to lose an hour a week driving to fill up.

The battery is because, for new solar installations here, you basically give your production to the provider for free... So storing after using as much as possible during peak solar hours (either in the car or in the house) is better, if only on an emotional level!
I’ll be going towards a LiO from one of the Local suppliers here. The prices have gone down a lot, and if you can install it yourself, it will make sense in two to three years (did the maths a year ago, it’s in a box, somewhere) at the current energy price trends.
I need 14kWh, and that was stupid expensive last time I moved 4 years ago.

As an aside, I will be changing the roof in two years, and it will be made (by me) with the solar, so no paying twice (roof, then solar). Solar is silly cheap, the installation being the major cost, the alloy supports second, I am equipped to do both.

If I was Joe Twolefthands customer, having to pay somebody to do everything, it would probably be another story.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 06, 2018, 06:38:34 pm
With a colleague we were looking at second hand Nissan Leaf EV.
We both don’t do many Km but we need a car for children, shopping and our money generating hobbies. Plus, on his side, the tax laws in Holland (both state and local) make owning a low use small family size IC a bit expensive.

Taking into account predicted usage, cold weather and battery wear, the 2014 or newer Leaf was ideal...
We were very suprised to not be able to find a clean one under 10000€...
These thing are holding their price better than what the doomsayers predicted.

In any case, I still need a “big” car as I am renovating a house.
When we are done, we will get a second hand Leaf combined with rooftop solar and a battery.
I imagine that I am not alone in reaching this conclusion.

Interesting how things are different in other countries.  In the US the Leaf is not that popular.  Out of curiosity I'm looking at prices here for a 2014 and they are around $10,000 to $13,000 USD asking price.

Can you lease?  The trend here in California is to lease EVs.  The monthly payment is the same or less than financing the purchase of a car.  And like smartphones the technology, software and battery life continues to change that it worth it to get a "new" car every 3 - 4 years.  In California we receive about $10,000 in tax credits and cash rebates.

Are battery systems worth it?  According to Dave battery systems (lead acid) or only 40% efficient.  That means for every 10 kWhr the your solar panels produce and store in the batteries you'll only get 6 kWhrs back.

I've asked many people if battery systems make financial sense.  Everyone says it does, but then no one has show the math calculations to support their claims.
I don’t lease or borrow money to get stuff. Leasing is renting that has a slick lawyer friend and is usually more expensive than owning.
Apart from this, I don’t know how lease contracts are written in the US, but here, finding a deserted crossroad to sell your soul to the Devil is better option.

I intend to wear this car to the ground, like the Iphone4 that I still use today. So any resale is a bonus, not a need. It will carry dirty kids, their dust covered dad and building/furniture material. Very little freeway, rarely will it reach a max of 120km of calm driving a day.
For second hand, there are no incentives, apart from not having certain yearly taxes and not having to lose an hour a week driving to fill up.

The battery is because, for new solar installations here, you basically give your production to the provider for free... So storing after using as much as possible during peak solar hours (either in the car or in the house) is better, if only on an emotional level!
I’ll be going towards a LiO from one of the Local suppliers here. The prices have gone down a lot, and if you can install it yourself, it will make sense in two to three years (did the maths a year ago, it’s in a box, somewhere) at the current energy price trends.
I need 14kWh, and that was stupid expensive last time I moved 4 years ago.

As an aside, I will be changing the roof in two years, and it will be made (by me) with the solar, so no paying twice (roof, then solar). Solar is silly cheap, the installation being the major cost, the alloy supports second, I am equipped to do both.

If I was Joe Twolefthands customer, having to pay somebody to do everything, it would probably be another story.

I think you need to re-think technology.  Why on Earth would you be using an iPhone 4 Today?  You can't run the latest apps, which might be required if you wnat to monitor your PV system and most importantly you can't apply the latest security updates which mean you can be the target of cyber-attackers.

Then there's the issue of the battery.  Are you still using the orinigal battery?  Probebly not.  How much and how many times have you had to replace the battery that was not mean to be replaced?

And isn't your iPhone 4 slow and missing a number of radios such as 802.11A and 80.211 C?

You also don't have the figerprint reader which means there are lot of apps which won't work suchs as Wallet and Apple Pay.  Why on Earth in this day of credit card theft would you not want to protect your credit cards and your credit?

And please don't tell me you are going to use cash for everthing.  Isn't is Sweden that's eliminating cash in just a few years?

You might be happy with an slow, unsecure iPhone 4 whihc is no longer supported.  But please do society a favor and upgarde to a smarphone that's secure by modern standards.  It's people like you running aroudn with unsecure, unsupproted devices which is allowing cybercriminals to steaal from good honest people.













Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 06, 2018, 06:45:28 pm
Interesting how things are different in other countries.  In the US the Leaf is not that popular.
Relative to what? Currently it is selling in about the same numbers as the Volt - no's 6/7 on   the list of monthly EV sales (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/) Sales of Leafs have slowed but as of the end of 2016  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States) it was, along with the Volt,  at the top of cumulative sales  - far above the competitors.


Quote
According to Dave battery systems (lead acid) or only 40% efficient
  I've never seen him say that but if so, it's inaccurate.  It depends entirely where you are on the charge/discharge curve.  It is not linear.   For deep cycle LA batteries at 50% SOC it can be as high as 90%.  At 90% SOC it will be closer to 50%.  At the very top - during the absorb phase of charging it will be down to a few percent.  Lots of data on this  - just do a web search...

This is not an issue if you understand proper battery based solar PV system design - especially now that PV panels are so cheap.   With deep cycle FLA batteries, you want a system designed to take your battery bank down near 50% SOC (but not below) in typical worse case - a few days with no sun scenarios.  You would also want to have generator (wind or hydro if you're lucky) back up for rare situations where there is no sun for longer.  In those cases where there is intermittent sun, you would be charging/discharging at the low end (50-70%) of the SOC curve where things are most efficient. 

When sunshine is plentiful - your system should not be discharging your battery bank below 80% SOC or so (overnight).  Yes, charge/discharge is inefficient there but you don't care because sun is plentiful.  People employ all kind of methods to make use of extra power production during time of plentifull sunshine and a full battery bank (such as "load shifting" or heating water).

The biggest mistake people make is undersizing their PV array (especially dumb given current low PV prices) or undersizing their battery bank so that it cannot provide enough power for a couple of days of no sun and still stay above 50%SOC.  The advantage of LiFePO4 banks is they can be drawn down much farther (as well and well as more efficient charge/discharge across the curve).

Now - if you're trying to milk you utilities rate structure and PV rebate system - by feeding back to the grid from your battery bank during peak hours - well you may have different design considerations and how that pencils out financially will of course depend on your system cost and what the incentive from your utility is. 

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 06, 2018, 07:26:38 pm
I think you need to re-think technology.  Why on Earth would you be using an iPhone 4 Today?  You can't run the latest apps, which might be required if you wnat to monitor your PV system and most importantly you can't apply the latest security updates which mean you can be the target of cyber-attackers.

Then there's the issue of the battery.  Are you still using the orinigal battery?  Probebly not.  How much and how many times have you had to replace the battery that was not mean to be replaced?

And isn't your iPhone 4 slow and missing a number of radios such as 802.11A and 80.211 C?

You also don't have the figerprint reader which means there are lot of apps which won't work suchs as Wallet and Apple Pay.  Why on Earth in this day of credit card theft would you not want to protect your credit cards and your credit?

And please don't tell me you are going to use cash for everthing.  Isn't is Sweden that's eliminating cash in just a few years?

You might be happy with an slow, unsecure iPhone 4 whihc is no longer supported.  But please do society a favor and upgarde to a smarphone that's secure by modern standards.  It's people like you running aroudn with unsecure, unsupproted devices which is allowing cybercriminals to steaal from good honest people.

I work offshore (cable laying) half the time, I cannot use most apps behind multiple firewalls and satellite internet even if I wanted to.
We can send and receive emails, check news sites and forums - and that’s about it.
It still is on its original battery, it lasts two days including 8 hours of constant Podcast listening a day. Offshore, it goes for about 4 to 5 days. Treat your tools well and they last long.
The only thing that will make upgrade to an Refurbished SE later this year is 5G (some areas, such as gas fields, only have 5G, no 1,2,3 or 4G). I also have a work Android with no camera or GPS because some clients only allow that in their zone.

And we have a “House iPad” for anything really needed. The systems I intend to install are most certainly not IoT. There will be automation, but not IoT.
I’ll probably do something with a 555 just because.

I pay cash and with a bank card, I have a “credit card” as an emergency thing in countries that don’t accept my primary card. My bank has a very good and safe (if slow) internet payment system that I prefer over Wallet or Apple Pay.

I do not give a hoot about my “credit” as this is not how things work here. And the only debt I have is my house and I fully intend to keep it that way.

Not everyone lives in the same world as you.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 06, 2018, 09:02:10 pm
And please don't tell me you are going to use cash for everthing.  Isn't is Sweden that's eliminating cash in just a few years?
Perhaps, but hardly relevant as "gildasd" and his iPhone 4 lives in Belgium.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 06, 2018, 09:58:42 pm
And please don't tell me you are going to use cash for everthing.  Isn't is Sweden that's eliminating cash in just a few years?
Perhaps, but hardly relevant as "gildasd" and his iPhone 4 lives in Belgium.
We are the grey boring mayonnaise lovers, they are the blond sexy lingonberries lovers.

I miss lingonberry sauce...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: glarsson on May 06, 2018, 10:06:49 pm
We are the grey boring mayonnaise lovers, they are the blond sexy lingonberries lovers.
After visiting Belgium several years ago I started enjoying french fries with mayonnaise instead of boring ketchup.
Clams, french fries and mayonnaise.  :-+
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 06, 2018, 10:16:01 pm
We are the grey boring mayonnaise lovers, they are the blond sexy lingonberries lovers.
After visiting Belgium several years ago I started enjoying french fries with mayonnaise instead of boring ketchup.
Clams, french fries and mayonnaise.  :-+
I’m French, and after 7 years in Belgium, i’m still amazed of what they will serve with mayo!
If a Swedish firm started making electrolytic capacitors, I bet they would be using berry juice.

In our last job, Our vessel picked up two loads of cable from Halden. The fjord between Norway and Sweden to get there is spectacular.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 06, 2018, 11:24:51 pm
We are the grey boring mayonnaise lovers, they are the blond sexy lingonberries lovers.
After visiting Belgium several years ago I started enjoying french fries with mayonnaise instead of boring ketchup.
Clams, french fries and mayonnaise.  :-+
:wtf: Who the hell eats fries with ketchup? Blasphemy!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 07, 2018, 01:13:35 am
I think you need to re-think technology.  Why on Earth would you be using an iPhone 4 Today?  You can't run the latest apps, which might be required if you wnat to monitor your PV system and most importantly you can't apply the latest security updates which mean you can be the target of cyber-attackers.

Then there's the issue of the battery.  Are you still using the orinigal battery?  Probebly not.  How much and how many times have you had to replace the battery that was not mean to be replaced?

And isn't your iPhone 4 slow and missing a number of radios such as 802.11A and 80.211 C?

You also don't have the figerprint reader which means there are lot of apps which won't work suchs as Wallet and Apple Pay.  Why on Earth in this day of credit card theft would you not want to protect your credit cards and your credit?

I was still using an iPhone 4 until just a few months ago when I got tired of not having enough space for photos and got an iPhone SE. Not everyone cares about running the latest apps, I sure don't. I've never really had any issue with security on my phone, but I don't do a lot of web surfing on it and I don't visit sketchy sites. I think most of the FUD is spread by device makers and app developers who depend on everyone replacing everything frequently. Who cares about the WiFi speed? It's a phone, I'm not downloading big files over the WiFi. My current phone has the fingerprint reader but I've never used it, I use cash or a credit card, I have no interest in a proprietary gimmick like Apple Pay. The only time I've ever had a credit card stolen was with an online purchase and it did nothing to my credit, I simply called the bank and contested the charge and it was immediately removed, no big deal. I replaced the battery in mine once, it took 5 minutes and cost less than $10. I've never understood why everyone says iPhones don't have replaceable batteries, at least on that model it was a piece of cake.

While I do like technology, it has always baffled me why so many people seem addicted to having the latest and greatest. I want to buy a smartphone, install all the apps I want, get everything set up just the way I want it and then freeze the configuration for the ~4-6 years that I use it. When there are compelling new capabilities in a new model I will replace it and repeat the same process. I hate updates, every time iOS updates my phone gets slower and slower even though I'm still using it for exactly the same purpose. Finally I got so fed up that I blocked Apple's update server on my network. I'm glad I did too because the latest iOS doesn't support 32 bit apps at all and I still have several I paid for and use that are abandoned and no longer updated.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 07, 2018, 04:16:57 pm
Interesting how things are different in other countries.  In the US the Leaf is not that popular.
Relative to what? Currently it is selling in about the same numbers as the Volt - no's 6/7 on   the list of monthly EV sales (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/) Sales of Leafs have slowed but as of the end of 2016  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_the_United_States) it was, along with the Volt,  at the top of cumulative sales  - far above the competitors.


Quote
According to Dave battery systems (lead acid) or only 40% efficient
  I've never seen him say that but if so, it's inaccurate.  It depends entirely where you are on the charge/discharge curve.  It is not linear.   For deep cycle LA batteries at 50% SOC it can be as high as 90%.  At 90% SOC it will be closer to 50%.  At the very top - during the absorb phase of charging it will be down to a few percent.  Lots of data on this  - just do a web search...

This is not an issue if you understand proper battery based solar PV system design - especially now that PV panels are so cheap.   With deep cycle FLA batteries, you want a system designed to take your battery bank down near 50% SOC (but not below) in typical worse case - a few days with no sun scenarios.  You would also want to have generator (wind or hydro if you're lucky) back up for rare situations where there is no sun for longer.  In those cases where there is intermittent sun, you would be charging/discharging at the low end (50-70%) of the SOC curve where things are most efficient. 

When sunshine is plentiful - your system should not be discharging your battery bank below 80% SOC or so (overnight).  Yes, charge/discharge is inefficient there but you don't care because sun is plentiful.  People employ all kind of methods to make use of extra power production during time of plentifull sunshine and a full battery bank (such as "load shifting" or heating water).

The biggest mistake people make is undersizing their PV array (especially dumb given current low PV prices) or undersizing their battery bank so that it cannot provide enough power for a couple of days of no sun and still stay above 50%SOC.  The advantage of LiFePO4 banks is they can be drawn down much farther (as well and well as more efficient charge/discharge across the curve).

Now - if you're trying to milk you utilities rate structure and PV rebate system - by feeding back to the grid from your battery bank during peak hours - well you may have different design considerations and how that pencils out financially will of course depend on your system cost and what the incentive from your utility is.

Your claims about LA batteries do not agree with Dave's video on the efficenceny or LA batteries.  Can you provide some factual data to support your claim as Dave did in his video?  If not, I'm going to beleive Dave and his data which shows LA battereis are only loose 40 % of there energy to heat in the chemical reaction of charginig and discharging.

LiFePO4 banks may have an advantage of being able to be drawn down much farther but they also suffer from crystalization and have a much sorter life span.

Our power compnay, PG&E is encouraging customers to "milk" them.  On some rate plans PG&E will purrcase excess power at $0.85 Kwhr and sell it back to you in th same day at $0.12 kHr.  How it pencil's out is easy.  For every kWhr you "sell to PG&E within a year at $0.85 kWhr one can get back almost 8 kWhrs when the rates are lower later in the day or year.

How does the power company storing ecess energy compare with batteries?  I think you will find it's not even close.

 



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 07, 2018, 04:39:10 pm
And please don't tell me you are going to use cash for everthing.  Isn't is Sweden that's eliminating cash in just a few years?
Perhaps, but hardly relevant as "gildasd" and his iPhone 4 lives in Belgium.

In the US the banks by law are no longer accepting cash from some customers.  I'm sure this is going to be the step in phasing out cash here.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 07, 2018, 04:46:36 pm
Cash will be around for a long time to come. I mean we still have pennies, those have been useless for decades. I still encounter cash-only places in remote areas that have no cell service, in some cases no landlines even. People, especially those living in trendy tech hubs seem to forget that large numbers of people still live in rural areas with limited connectivity. There are still businesses like buying and selling of antiques, collectibles, and other esoteric high value stuff where people expect cash. I use a credit card for most of my day to day transactions but I've encountered enough cash-only situations that I always carry some with me.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 07, 2018, 04:56:04 pm

Your claims about LA batteries do not agree with Dave's video on the efficenceny or LA batteries.
What video? He has several videos on battery charging - none on deep cycle LA batteries that I am aware of.

Quote
  Can you provide some factual data to support your claim as Dave did in his video? 

As I mentioned data easily found if you do a web search (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=lead+acid+battery+charge+efficiency)  ::)

In addition, I and many others have years of experience monitoring charge and discharge data from our own battery banks. AFAIK, Dave has no experience with deep cycle battery banks.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 07, 2018, 05:06:49 pm
I think you need to re-think technology.  Why on Earth would you be using an iPhone 4 Today?  You can't run the latest apps, which might be required if you wnat to monitor your PV system and most importantly you can't apply the latest security updates which mean you can be the target of cyber-attackers.

Then there's the issue of the battery.  Are you still using the orinigal battery?  Probebly not.  How much and how many times have you had to replace the battery that was not mean to be replaced?

And isn't your iPhone 4 slow and missing a number of radios such as 802.11A and 80.211 C?

You also don't have the figerprint reader which means there are lot of apps which won't work suchs as Wallet and Apple Pay.  Why on Earth in this day of credit card theft would you not want to protect your credit cards and your credit?

I was still using an iPhone 4 until just a few months ago when I got tired of not having enough space for photos and got an iPhone SE. Not everyone cares about running the latest apps, I sure don't. I've never really had any issue with security on my phone, but I don't do a lot of web surfing on it and I don't visit sketchy sites. I think most of the FUD is spread by device makers and app developers who depend on everyone replacing everything frequently. Who cares about the WiFi speed? It's a phone, I'm not downloading big files over the WiFi. My current phone has the fingerprint reader but I've never used it, I use cash or a credit card, I have no interest in a proprietary gimmick like Apple Pay. The only time I've ever had a credit card stolen was with an online purchase and it did nothing to my credit, I simply called the bank and contested the charge and it was immediately removed, no big deal. I replaced the battery in mine once, it took 5 minutes and cost less than $10. I've never understood why everyone says iPhones don't have replaceable batteries, at least on that model it was a piece of cake.

While I do like technology, it has always baffled me why so many people seem addicted to having the latest and greatest. I want to buy a smartphone, install all the apps I want, get everything set up just the way I want it and then freeze the configuration for the ~4-6 years that I use it. When there are compelling new capabilities in a new model I will replace it and repeat the same process. I hate updates, every time iOS updates my phone gets slower and slower even though I'm still using it for exactly the same purpose. Finally I got so fed up that I blocked Apple's update server on my network. I'm glad I did too because the latest iOS doesn't support 32 bit apps at all and I still have several I paid for and use that are abandoned and no longer updated.


Why are you baffeld?  It's not that people are addicated to the technology, it's the technology changes.  Is there are reason you aren't driving a 50-75 year old car today?  Cars then, like today transport you at the same spped today as the did then.

The reason is the technology has changed.  Cars today produce less polution, have more functionality and are safer.

Same is true with technoloy, (computers, cell phones etc.) Is there a reason you aren't uing records or casseete tapes to listen to podcasts or music today?

But here's the real reason you should be updating your technology....  Security.  Your old technology can be used by cybercriminals to commit cyber crimes and you won't even know about it.  There are cases where the onwer of odler technology has been arrested as being a cybercriminal becuase her device was being used in a cybercrime.

So while you might be using an iPhone 4 or 5 thinking your are safe you are not and you are making it so socielty as a whole is not safe either.   Think of it this way.  You are one of those anti-vacination types and you brag to everyone becuase you didn't get vacinated.  And maybe you make fun of everyone who has been vacinated.  Then a travler comes to your village who has polio.  Everyone in the village except for you, buecause they have the latest technoloy doen't get the disease.

But you get the disease.  And maybe you have symptone or maybe you don't and become a carrier and act as a resivor so the polio virus can attack ohters.

Maybe you don't like the latest technology, but then you just updated so you are addicted just as everyone else who upgrades is.  Only problem you have is you are upgrading old technology to old technology and it's still not secure.

Think about your security and the security of others.








 





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 07, 2018, 05:20:06 pm

Your claims about LA batteries do not agree with Dave's video on the efficenceny or LA batteries.
What video? He has several videos on battery charging - none on deep cycle LA batteries that I am aware of.

Quote
  Can you provide some factual data to support your claim as Dave did in his video? 

As I mentioned data easily found if you do a web search (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=lead+acid+battery+charge+efficiency)  ::)

In addition, I and many others have years of experience monitoring charge and discharge data from our own battery banks. AFAIK, Dave has no experience with deep cycle battery banks.

I'm looking.  Out of curiosity how efficient do you think LA battery are?

This one is not from Dave but he explains why LA car batteries shoudl not be used for SLOAR.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhIRD5YVNbs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhIRD5YVNbs)


Or try this web site  Here they say can be low as 60% which is what Dave said.

Have you ever charged a LA battery with battery charger?  The batteries can get quite warm.


https://www.solar-facts.com/batteries/battery-charging.php (https://www.solar-facts.com/batteries/battery-charging.php)


Battery Efficiency
The Lead Acid battery is not 100% efficient at storing electricity - you will never get out as much as you put in when charging. Overall, an efficiency level of 85% is often assumed.
The efficiency will depend on a number of factors including the rate of charging or discharging. The higher the rate of charge or discharege, the lower the efficiency.
The state of charge of the battery will also affect charge efficiency. With the battery at half charge or less, the charge efficiency may be over 90%, dropping to nearer 60% when the battery is above 80% charged.
However it has been found that if a battery is only partially charged, efficency may be reduced with each charge. If this situation persists (the batteries never reaching full charge), the life of the battery may be reduced.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 07, 2018, 05:58:15 pm
I'm looking.  Out of curiosity how efficient do you think LA battery are?

 Did you not read my prior post before responding to it? As I previously stated:

It depends entirely where you are on the charge/discharge curve.  It is not linear.   For deep cycle LA batteries at 50% SOC it can be as high as 90%.  At 90% SOC it will be closer to 50%.  At the very top - during the absorb phase of charging it will be down to a few percent.

Also it is important to understand not all LA batteries are the same. AGM  SLA are generally more efficient. Large traction batteries, less efficient.   

Here they say can be low as 60% which is what Dave said.
  In your prior post you said he said 40%.  Still waiting for you to let us know where he said that.

And yes, of course.  One should  not use automotive LA batteries for solar PV or any deep cycle application. They are not designed for that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: james_s on May 08, 2018, 01:35:03 am


Why are you baffeld?  It's not that people are addicated to the technology, it's the technology changes.  Is there are reason you aren't driving a 50-75 year old car today?  Cars then, like today transport you at the same spped today as the did then.

The reason is the technology has changed.  Cars today produce less polution, have more functionality and are safer.

Same is true with technoloy, (computers, cell phones etc.) Is there a reason you aren't uing records or casseete tapes to listen to podcasts or music today?

But here's the real reason you should be updating your technology....  Security.  Your old technology can be used by cybercriminals to commit cyber crimes and you won't even know about it.  There are cases where the onwer of odler technology has been arrested as being a cybercriminal becuase her device was being used in a cybercrime.


Because it's ridiculous to replace perfectly good equipment every few months to a year, shelling out money over and over for stuff I already paid for, turning resources into landfill at a rapid pace. Yes there is a reason I'm not driving a 50-75 year old car today, it's that I can't go out and buy one, and I can't just buy all the parts to maintain it. Also there were a few technological developments like fuel injection, disc brakes and crumple zones that really are a substantial improvement but those have been around for decades now. My daily driver is pushing up on 30 years old and I just hope I can find another one if something ever happens to it because it's so much cooler than anything new I've driven. If I could walk into a dealer and buy a brand new 80s-90s car today I absolutely would. You're absolutely right, cars today transport me just like cars did back then,  and the fuel economy of my 1990 car is nearly as good as many similar modern cars. Since you mention safety, I'll say that this car is a replacement for a slightly older model that got rear ended by a semi truck at freeway speed and I walked away from that very violent accident without a scratch, you'd have a hard time convincing me that a new car is going to do appreciably safer than that and if I wanted to drive an unsafe car (or motorcycle) then that's my choice anyway. Sure a newer car has more "functionality" if you mean bloated gadgets, gimmicks and stuff to break or get outdated but you can have all that, I want to *drive* the car, I want to shift the gears, I want to feel the road, I don't need or want a bunch of bloat and distracting toys.

I do listen to music on vinyl quite regularly, yes I also have digital music that I can play from my smartphone or stream from various gadgets around the house, I'm not an old fart, I know how to use all that stuff and the convenience is nice but vinyl still sounds great and playing a record is a different experience, not to mention digging through dusty boxes of them in thrift stores looking for something good.

Now security with older devices, blah blah blah, there's a name for what you're saying, it's called FUD. Yes there have been a few notable security issues but find me an incident of older iPhones being taken over by cybercriminals (has it *ever* happened?) and I'll find you 10 times as many cases of modern, fully patched, up to date systems infected because of the one thing you can't patch, the user. I have spent many hours of my life cleaning up malware, crapware, viruses, and other garbage from countless computers and you know how many of those have been due to some exploit in old outdated software? Zero, none, so far it has *always* been a case of users installing sketchy stuff, falling for popups, email scams, bundled crapware, you name it. So save it, I'm not going to replace my devices just because of your unfounded worries about security and cries that the sky is falling. This security FUD is a very recent phenomenon, it started spreading fast right about the time software and hardware plateued and suddenly a 2 year old device wasn't hopelessly obsolete, tech companies started to panic as they scrambled to find new ways to keep selling more products. Having worked in various parts of that industry for years I've seen it from the inside, everyone is pushing towards everything as a service, subscription, perpetual income for the company and "OMG! Security! Hackers!" is one of the leading marketing cries to spin the benefits of software rental and half-assed, ship it now, fix it "later" tinker with it constantly development methodologies.

So yes, as somebody who buys something, takes good care of it and expects to keep it for 5, 10, maybe 20+ years and keep using it until it no longer meets my needs, I remain baffled how so many people think it's necessary to constantly replace everything, throw money away and burn through the world's resources.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 08, 2018, 09:05:17 am
Quote
For every kWhr you "sell to PG&E within a year at $0.85 kWhr one can get back almost 8 kWhrs when the rates are lower later in the day or year.
How does the power company storing ecess energy compare with batteries?

The thing is : The power company does not store energy.

Now, if you invest in cheap storage (Lithium batteries), you have to consider a few "details":
- The Power company does not like you, and will make everything possible to suck off money from your investment
- The Power company likes the daily smoothing and storing capability of your battery. You have to sell it to them (with better leverage if you are a group of people)
- The variable price will be smoothed somewhat on a daily scale once battery systems are economical will scale because a lot of people invest (that point can vary greatly between regions depending on local grid evolution.) Don't count on those price differences with today's rate to make money or recoup your investment!
- The variable price on a longer scale (weeks, months) will not be smoothed out by battery systems. Don't count on those price differences at all to make money!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 08, 2018, 03:41:30 pm


Why are you baffeld?  It's not that people are addicated to the technology, it's the technology changes.  Is there are reason you aren't driving a 50-75 year old car today?  Cars then, like today transport you at the same spped today as the did then.

The reason is the technology has changed.  Cars today produce less polution, have more functionality and are safer.

Same is true with technoloy, (computers, cell phones etc.) Is there a reason you aren't uing records or casseete tapes to listen to podcasts or music today?

But here's the real reason you should be updating your technology....  Security.  Your old technology can be used by cybercriminals to commit cyber crimes and you won't even know about it.  There are cases where the onwer of odler technology has been arrested as being a cybercriminal becuase her device was being used in a cybercrime.


Because it's ridiculous to replace perfectly good equipment every few months to a year, shelling out money over and over for stuff I already paid for, turning resources into landfill at a rapid pace. Yes there is a reason I'm not driving a 50-75 year old car today, it's that I can't go out and buy one, and I can't just buy all the parts to maintain it. Also there were a few technological developments like fuel injection, disc brakes and crumple zones that really are a substantial improvement but those have been around for decades now. My daily driver is pushing up on 30 years old and I just hope I can find another one if something ever happens to it because it's so much cooler than anything new I've driven. If I could walk into a dealer and buy a brand new 80s-90s car today I absolutely would. You're absolutely right, cars today transport me just like cars did back then,  and the fuel economy of my 1990 car is nearly as good as many similar modern cars. Since you mention safety, I'll say that this car is a replacement for a slightly older model that got rear ended by a semi truck at freeway speed and I walked away from that very violent accident without a scratch, you'd have a hard time convincing me that a new car is going to do appreciably safer than that and if I wanted to drive an unsafe car (or motorcycle) then that's my choice anyway. Sure a newer car has more "functionality" if you mean bloated gadgets, gimmicks and stuff to break or get outdated but you can have all that, I want to *drive* the car, I want to shift the gears, I want to feel the road, I don't need or want a bunch of bloat and distracting toys.

I do listen to music on vinyl quite regularly, yes I also have digital music that I can play from my smartphone or stream from various gadgets around the house, I'm not an old fart, I know how to use all that stuff and the convenience is nice but vinyl still sounds great and playing a record is a different experience, not to mention digging through dusty boxes of them in thrift stores looking for something good.

Now security with older devices, blah blah blah, there's a name for what you're saying, it's called FUD. Yes there have been a few notable security issues but find me an incident of older iPhones being taken over by cybercriminals (has it *ever* happened?) and I'll find you 10 times as many cases of modern, fully patched, up to date systems infected because of the one thing you can't patch, the user. I have spent many hours of my life cleaning up malware, crapware, viruses, and other garbage from countless computers and you know how many of those have been due to some exploit in old outdated software? Zero, none, so far it has *always* been a case of users installing sketchy stuff, falling for popups, email scams, bundled crapware, you name it. So save it, I'm not going to replace my devices just because of your unfounded worries about security and cries that the sky is falling. This security FUD is a very recent phenomenon, it started spreading fast right about the time software and hardware plateued and suddenly a 2 year old device wasn't hopelessly obsolete, tech companies started to panic as they scrambled to find new ways to keep selling more products. Having worked in various parts of that industry for years I've seen it from the inside, everyone is pushing towards everything as a service, subscription, perpetual income for the company and "OMG! Security! Hackers!" is one of the leading marketing cries to spin the benefits of software rental and half-assed, ship it now, fix it "later" tinker with it constantly development methodologies.

So yes, as somebody who buys something, takes good care of it and expects to keep it for 5, 10, maybe 20+ years and keep using it until it no longer meets my needs, I remain baffled how so many people think it's necessary to constantly replace everything, throw money away and burn through the world's resources.


The thing is it's not perfectly good if it has a security flaw is it. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 08, 2018, 03:55:00 pm
Quote
For every kWhr you "sell to PG&E within a year at $0.85 kWhr one can get back almost 8 kWhrs when the rates are lower later in the day or year.
How does the power company storing ecess energy compare with batteries?

The thing is : The power company does not store energy.

Now, if you invest in cheap storage (Lithium batteries), you have to consider a few "details":
- The Power company does not like you, and will make everything possible to suck off money from your investment
- The Power company likes the daily smoothing and storing capability of your battery. You have to sell it to them (with better leverage if you are a group of people)
- The variable price will be smoothed somewhat on a daily scale once battery systems are economical will scale because a lot of people invest (that point can vary greatly between regions depending on local grid evolution.) Don't count on those price differences with today's rate to make money or recoup your investment!
- The variable price on a longer scale (weeks, months) will not be smoothed out by battery systems. Don't count on those price differences at all to make money!

What do you mean the power company/PG&E doesn't store energy? 
The heck they don't.  They store energy using a technique which is thouands of years old.  It's called water.
PG&E has many lakess and water reseviors for storing water.  The water is then released and creates electricty/hydroelectric power.  At night when people aren't using the electricty they pump the water back up hill to so it can be used over and over.  These resivor levels can vary 3 or 4 feet in one afternoon when electricity demands are high.


PLEASE GET YOUR FACTS STRIGHT

Please stop with the misinformation.   PG&E like all of the power companies were deregulated and can not make a profit off selling electctricity to their customers.  Ever hear of Enron?  If it wasn't for this deregulation and Enron purchasing PGE (not PG&E) it would be a different story.  This was somthing the public voted on.

So PLEASE STOP with the misinformaiton.



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 08, 2018, 05:31:01 pm
PG&E has many lakess and water reseviors for storing water.  The water is then released and creates electricty/hydroelectric power.  At night when people aren't using the electricty they pump the water back up hill to so it can be used over and over.  These resivor levels can vary 3 or 4 feet in one afternoon when electricity demands are high.
If I Google "PG&E pumped storage" all the references I get seem to be to a single pumped storage system called Helms. Why don't the others show up? Are they not actually owned by PG&E?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 09, 2018, 12:13:19 am
PG&E has many lakess and water reseviors for storing water.  The water is then released and creates electricty/hydroelectric power.  At night when people aren't using the electricty they pump the water back up hill to so it can be used over and over.  These resivor levels can vary 3 or 4 feet in one afternoon when electricity demands are high.
If I Google "PG&E pumped storage" all the references I get seem to be to a single pumped storage system called Helms. Why don't the others show up? Are they not actually owned by PG&E?
He is confusing pumped storage with hydro. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 09, 2018, 01:44:56 am
PG&E has many lakess and water reseviors for storing water.  The water is then released and creates electricty/hydroelectric power.  At night when people aren't using the electricty they pump the water back up hill to so it can be used over and over.  These resivor levels can vary 3 or 4 feet in one afternoon when electricity demands are high.
If I Google "PG&E pumped storage" all the references I get seem to be to a single pumped storage system called Helms. Why don't the others show up? Are they not actually owned by PG&E?
He is confusing pumped storage with hydro.


PG&E has many energy storage reservoirs in California.  Helms is just one of many.

Most have not looked too hard.  All did was look on PG&E's web site to see they list over 100 energy storage reservoirs in California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range.  And their web site states there are 67 powerhouses and collectively provide clean, green, non-polluting renewable electricity to over 4,000,000 homes.

Any idea why he thinks the power compnaies don't have energy storage?  They sure as heck do.

 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 09, 2018, 01:52:55 am
This guy explains LA batteries.  On par with Dave's videos.  Well worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhIRD5YVNbs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhIRD5YVNbs)


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 09, 2018, 02:52:08 am
PG&E has many lakess and water reseviors for storing water.  The water is then released and creates electricty/hydroelectric power.  At night when people aren't using the electricty they pump the water back up hill to so it can be used over and over.  These resivor levels can vary 3 or 4 feet in one afternoon when electricity demands are high.
If I Google "PG&E pumped storage" all the references I get seem to be to a single pumped storage system called Helms. Why don't the others show up? Are they not actually owned by PG&E?
He is confusing pumped storage with hydro.


PG&E has many energy storage reservoirs in California.  Helms is just one of many.

Most have not looked too hard.  All did was look on PG&E's web site to see they list over 100 energy storage reservoirs in California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range.  And their web site states there are 67 powerhouses and collectively provide clean, green, non-polluting renewable electricity to over 4,000,000 homes.

Any idea why he thinks the power compnaies don't have energy storage?  They sure as heck do.

The page at PG&E referring to 67 power houses is the hydroelectric power page, not a page on pumped storage. Sure, hydroelectric schemes store energy as water, just as oil fired systems store energy as oil in their tanks. However, the topic was battery like storage.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 09, 2018, 03:06:49 am
PG&E has many lakess and water reseviors for storing water.  The water is then released and creates electricty/hydroelectric power.  At night when people aren't using the electricty they pump the water back up hill to so it can be used over and over.  These resivor levels can vary 3 or 4 feet in one afternoon when electricity demands are high.
If I Google "PG&E pumped storage" all the references I get seem to be to a single pumped storage system called Helms. Why don't the others show up? Are they not actually owned by PG&E?
He is confusing pumped storage with hydro.


PG&E has many energy storage reservoirs in California.  Helms is just one of many.

Most have not looked too hard.  All did was look on PG&E's web site to see they list over 100 energy storage reservoirs in California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range.  And their web site states there are 67 powerhouses and collectively provide clean, green, non-polluting renewable electricity to over 4,000,000 homes.

Any idea why he thinks the power compnaies don't have energy storage?  They sure as heck do.

The page at PG&E referring to 67 power houses is the hydroelectric power page, not a page on pumped storage. Sure, hydroelectric schemes store energy as water, just as oil fired systems store energy as oil in their tanks. However, the topic was battery like storage.

I'm no expert on this, but doesn't pumped storage a type of hydroelectic?
I will not agree with you about oil/coal bening energy storage like a battery.  Yes the energy is stored, but to recharge it will take millions of years.

Why isn't a refillable reesivor like a battery.  Energy is stored as potential energy just like it is in a battery.  As water is let out of the resivor it produces electricity.  Just like a battery if the water is pumped back to the inistial resivor it's like charging a battery.

What'st the difference.  Botth store energy and and are easlily recharged.   The burning of oil/gas/coal involved the burning or an oxidative reaction which is not as easily reversed.

Can you explain ? 




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 09, 2018, 04:34:20 am
[Why isn't a refillable reesivor like a battery.  Energy is stored as potential energy just like it is in a battery.  As water is let out of the resivor it produces electricity.  Just like a battery if the water is pumped back to the inistial resivor it's like charging a battery.

What'st the difference.  Botth store energy and and are easlily recharged.   The burning of oil/gas/coal involved the burning or an oxidative reaction which is not as easily reversed.

Can you explain ?
Pumped storage systems have an upper and a lower pool, and swap water between them. Hydro power systems have no lower pool, so they have no source of water to refill the upper pool. Also, their generators do not generally have the ability to change modes and operate as pumps. An additional problem is that in rainy times the upper pool is probably full, so it may lack the capacity to take a daily cycling stock of additional water.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Miyuki on May 09, 2018, 10:17:31 am
If I could walk into a dealer and buy a brand new 80s-90s car today I absolutely would. You're absolutely right, cars today transport me just like cars did back then,  and the fuel economy of my 1990 car is nearly as good as many similar modern cars.
I sometimes drive one of my 80s car and they are still manufactured to this day as they moved factory to Uzbekistan ;D But I don't think you can buy one at "developed country" as they have still same engines and safety features as back then so wont pass today tests
And 1.5l 8 valve petrol engine with 3 speed automatic will run forever and parts are plentiful even old stock or can be ordered new if you wait few weeks
It is fun to drive
But safety is terrible especially at front corner crash and side impact is always awful without side airbags


And for topic question:
I would like to have and electric car but today is still TOC higher than gasoline car
When it will be cheaper I'll be happy to get one
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 09, 2018, 02:13:48 pm
PG&E has many lakess and water reseviors for storing water.  The water is then released and creates electricty/hydroelectric power.  At night when people aren't using the electricty they pump the water back up hill to so it can be used over and over.  These resivor levels can vary 3 or 4 feet in one afternoon when electricity demands are high.
If I Google "PG&E pumped storage" all the references I get seem to be to a single pumped storage system called Helms. Why don't the others show up? Are they not actually owned by PG&E?
He is confusing pumped storage with hydro.


PG&E has many energy storage reservoirs in California.  Helms is just one of many.

Most have not looked too hard.  All did was look on PG&E's web site to see they list over 100 energy storage reservoirs in California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range.  And their web site states there are 67 powerhouses and collectively provide clean, green, non-polluting renewable electricity to over 4,000,000 homes.

Any idea why he thinks the power compnaies don't have energy storage?  They sure as heck do.

 
But do they pump water back up stream to store energy or are they just using runoff that fills the reservior?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 09, 2018, 02:37:31 pm
PG&E has many lakess and water reseviors for storing water.  The water is then released and creates electricty/hydroelectric power.  At night when people aren't using the electricty they pump the water back up hill to so it can be used over and over.  These resivor levels can vary 3 or 4 feet in one afternoon when electricity demands are high.
If I Google "PG&E pumped storage" all the references I get seem to be to a single pumped storage system called Helms. Why don't the others show up? Are they not actually owned by PG&E?
He is confusing pumped storage with hydro.


PG&E has many energy storage reservoirs in California.  Helms is just one of many.

Most have not looked too hard.  All did was look on PG&E's web site to see they list over 100 energy storage reservoirs in California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range.  And their web site states there are 67 powerhouses and collectively provide clean, green, non-polluting renewable electricity to over 4,000,000 homes.

Any idea why he thinks the power compnaies don't have energy storage?  They sure as heck do.

 
But do they pump water back up stream to store energy or are they just using runoff that fills the reservior?


They have both. 
Obviously the rain filled resivors are huge and have a much larger capacity than these smaaler holding resiveors.  It might take days or weeks for the water level in large resivors to drop a foot.  But the holding resivors in one day the water level might change 3 or 4 feet in one day.

One also need to remember many of these resivors pre-date electricity.  They are located in the Sierra foothills of Californa whihc was gold country.  These resiviors were initially buil for hydrolic gold mining, ice (blocks of ice were cut and sent to San Francisco for refrigeration, and for drinking water/agriculture.  It would be another 60 - 100 years before these resivors would be used for produceing electricity.

Bottom line......  These smaller resivors are used like batteries to store energy which can be easily converted to electrity by opening a value.  As the water level in the resivors are drained they can be recharged by pumping water, which was used to produce electrity during the day, back into the resivor.

The amount of electricity stored in these rechargable resivors is very inexpensive and environmentaly friendly compared to the chemial energy stored in batteries.  And unlike batteries the resiviors are beatuiful lakes which provide drinking water, fishing, boating, camping etc.  All somthing you can't do with a battery.   
 
 And these lakes also provide drinking water


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 09, 2018, 02:42:34 pm
PG&E has many lakess and water reseviors for storing water.  The water is then released and creates electricty/hydroelectric power.  At night when people aren't using the electricty they pump the water back up hill to so it can be used over and over.  These resivor levels can vary 3 or 4 feet in one afternoon when electricity demands are high.
If I Google "PG&E pumped storage" all the references I get seem to be to a single pumped storage system called Helms. Why don't the others show up? Are they not actually owned by PG&E?
He is confusing pumped storage with hydro.


PG&E has many energy storage reservoirs in California.  Helms is just one of many.

Most have not looked too hard.  All did was look on PG&E's web site to see they list over 100 energy storage reservoirs in California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range.  And their web site states there are 67 powerhouses and collectively provide clean, green, non-polluting renewable electricity to over 4,000,000 homes.

Any idea why he thinks the power compnaies don't have energy storage?  They sure as heck do.

 
But do they pump water back up stream to store energy or are they just using runoff that fills the reservior?


They have both. 
Obviously the rain filled resivors are huge and have a much larger capacity than these smaaler holding resiveors.  It might take days or weeks for the water level in large resivors to drop a foot.  But the holding resivors in one day the water level might change 3 or 4 feet in one day.

One also need to remember many of these resivors pre-date electricity.  They are located in the Sierra foothills of Californa whihc was gold country.  These resiviors were initially buil for hydrolic gold mining, ice (blocks of ice were cut and sent to San Francisco for refrigeration, and for drinking water/agriculture.  It would be another 60 - 100 years before these resivors would be used for produceing electricity.

Bottom line......  These smaller resivors are used like batteries to store energy which can be easily converted to electrity by opening a value.  As the water level in the resivors are drained they can be recharged by pumping water, which was used to produce electrity during the day, back into the resivor.

The amount of electricity stored in these rechargable resivors is very inexpensive and environmentaly friendly compared to the chemial energy stored in batteries.  And unlike batteries the resiviors are beatuiful lakes which provide drinking water, fishing, boating, camping etc.  All somthing you can't do with a battery.   
 
 And these lakes also provide drinking water
That would mean they would need two reservoirs.  One up stream and another down stream as a source to pump water from when they are storing energy.  Is there that many pairs of reservoirs? 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 09, 2018, 02:54:14 pm
If I could walk into a dealer and buy a brand new 80s-90s car today I absolutely would. You're absolutely right, cars today transport me just like cars did back then,  and the fuel economy of my 1990 car is nearly as good as many similar modern cars.
I sometimes drive one of my 80s car and they are still manufactured to this day as they moved factory to Uzbekistan ;D But I don't think you can buy one at "developed country" as they have still same engines and safety features as back then so wont pass today tests
And 1.5l 8 valve petrol engine with 3 speed automatic will run forever and parts are plentiful even old stock or can be ordered new if you wait few weeks
It is fun to drive
But safety is terrible especially at front corner crash and side impact is always awful without side airbags


And for topic question:
I would like to have and electric car but today is still TOC higher than gasoline car
When it will be cheaper I'll be happy to get one

And I bet that car pollutes the air like crazy.  You one car probably produces more air pollution than 200 modern cars.
So not only are you driving a car that's not safe, it also produces a lots of pollution.

Car might be fun to drive and all of that, but like using an old outdated computer/smartphone which could easily be attacked by cybercrimianls your actions affect all of society.

Why drive a car that pollutes the city you live in?  It not only causes heath probalems for you, but all of your friends and neighbors.









Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 09, 2018, 03:12:58 pm
They have both. 
That would mean they would need two reservoirs.  One up stream and another down stream as a source to pump water from when they are storing energy.  Is there that many pairs of reservoirs?

Hence "They have both".

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 09, 2018, 03:35:28 pm
They have both. 
That would mean they would need two reservoirs.  One up stream and another down stream as a source to pump water from when they are storing energy.  Is there that many pairs of reservoirs?

Hence "They have both".
That's interesting do you know of some specific examples?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 09, 2018, 03:41:47 pm
They have both. 
That would mean they would need two reservoirs.  One up stream and another down stream as a source to pump water from when they are storing energy.  Is there that many pairs of reservoirs?

Hence "They have both".
That's interesting do you know of some specific examples?
I found these plants in california
 
Lake Hodges, Castaic Lake, Helms, San Luis Reservoir, O’Neill Forebay, Big Creek, and Oroville
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Miyuki on May 09, 2018, 03:58:52 pm
And I bet that car pollutes the air like crazy.  You one car probably produces more air pollution than 200 modern cars.
So not only are you driving a car that's not safe, it also produces a lots of pollution.

Car might be fun to drive and all of that, but like using an old outdated computer/smartphone which could easily be attacked by cybercrimianls your actions affect all of society.

Why drive a car that pollutes the city you live in?  It not only causes heath probalems for you, but all of your friends and neighbors.
And that is what politicians want you to believe
But in reality gasoline cars have almost same emissions from when they first begin to use catalytic converters
Look at tables there no much change for gasoline cars
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 09, 2018, 05:11:52 pm
They have both. 
That would mean they would need two reservoirs.  One up stream and another down stream as a source to pump water from when they are storing energy.  Is there that many pairs of reservoirs?

Hence "They have both".
That's interesting do you know of some specific examples?

The search term you're looking for is "Pump-back hydroelectric dam".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity#Pump-back_hydroelectric_dams

Examples?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 09, 2018, 05:32:56 pm
The search term you're looking for is "Pump-back hydroelectric dam".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity#Pump-back_hydroelectric_dams

Examples?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pumped-storage_hydroelectric_power_stations
Globally, hybrid hydroelectric + pumped storage systems are rare. Places where a high and a low pool can be sited are seldom places where the high pool can also intercept and store water from a major river. The list in your second reference is basically a list of pure pumped storage systems, with no rain energy capture.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 09, 2018, 06:18:20 pm
They have both. 
That would mean they would need two reservoirs.  One up stream and another down stream as a source to pump water from when they are storing energy.  Is there that many pairs of reservoirs?

Hence "They have both".
That's interesting do you know of some specific examples?

Yes.  I accidentley visted one years ago while looking for a camping site.  The lake is open to the public but there was a big warning sign stating lake level can change +/- 3-4 feet in a few hours.  The name of the lake was Lake Taboe  (Not Lake Tahoe.)  I think it was by Tragedy Springs where the Native American Indians killed the Mormons.

The entire Sierra Nevada mounts are dotted with thousands of these small resivors/lakes it's hard to know which ones are naturaal or man made and used for energy storage/power production.   Web site says over 100.

I do. 

https://www.pge.com/en_US/safety/how-the-system-works/hydroelectric-system/hydroelectric-system.page (https://www.pge.com/en_US/safety/how-the-system-works/hydroelectric-system/hydroelectric-system.page)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 09, 2018, 07:20:02 pm
Globally, hybrid hydroelectric + pumped storage systems are rare. Places where a high and a low pool can be sited are seldom places where the high pool can also intercept and store water from a major river. The list in your second reference is basically a list of pure pumped storage systems, with no rain energy capture.

OK.

Is this terribly important to the "power compnaies(sic) don't have energy storage" debate? They obviously do have pumped storage, just not many where the high pools are fed by major rivers.

(and presumably there's not much demand for those even if there happens to be a suitable low pool - the high pool is being filled up anyway)


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 09, 2018, 09:21:02 pm
Globally, hybrid hydroelectric + pumped storage systems are rare. Places where a high and a low pool can be sited are seldom places where the high pool can also intercept and store water from a major river. The list in your second reference is basically a list of pure pumped storage systems, with no rain energy capture.

OK.

Is this terribly important to the "power compnaies(sic) don't have energy storage" debate? They obviously do have pumped storage, just not many where the high pools are fed by major rivers.

(and presumably there's not much demand for those even if there happens to be a suitable low pool - the high pool is being filled up anyway)
Of course its important. Lots of people have lots of niche things. What matters for energy supply is what exists in large volume. When all the world's significant pump storage systems can be listed on one page it really niche.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 09, 2018, 09:33:14 pm
Of course its important. Lots of people have lots of niche things. What matters for energy supply is what exists in large volume. When all the world's significant pump storage systems can be listed on one page it really niche.
What I'm wondering about is if you could make a hydro energy storage system in a large lake or sea. The surface area can be huge but the height difference will be a few meters at most. When located in a sea with some tidal level differences the inefficiency could be (partly) cancelled by using the tide (high tide: store, low tide generate).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 09, 2018, 10:44:57 pm
Of course its important. Lots of people have lots of niche things. What matters for energy supply is what exists in large volume. When all the world's significant pump storage systems can be listed on one page it really niche.
What I'm wondering about is if you could make a hydro energy storage system in a large lake or sea. The surface area can be huge but the height difference will be a few meters at most. When located in a sea with some tidal level differences the inefficiency could be (partly) cancelled by using the tide (high tide: store, low tide generate).
There is a pumped storage system in Japan where the low pool is the sea, and the high pool is a man made lake on the cliffs overlooking the sea. The lake is supposed to be pretty well sealed, to minimise the amount of salt which bleeds into the surrounding area. Salt water could be really damaging to the surrounding environment if it leaks out little by little over many years. It might be hard to use a natural lake adjacent to the sea for that reason..... assuming there are any high up natural lakes sufficiently close to the sea.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 09, 2018, 11:01:06 pm
What I mean is: you can make an artificial lake in the sea (and put solar panels and/or wind turbines inside and around it).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 09, 2018, 11:26:50 pm
What I mean is: you can make an artificial lake in the sea (and put solar panels and/or wind turbines inside and around it).
Do you mean building walls up from the seabed until they are much higher than the surface, and using the enclosed space as a high pool? I've seen this proposed, but I don't think something like it has ever been constructed. I imagine it would need to be in a fairly sheltered spot, or tolerating the worst possible storms could greatly complicate things.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 09, 2018, 11:48:29 pm
What I mean is: you can make an artificial lake in the sea (and put solar panels and/or wind turbines inside and around it).
Do you mean building walls up from the seabed until they are much higher than the surface, and using the enclosed space as a high pool? I've seen this proposed, but I don't think something like it has ever been constructed. I imagine it would need to be in a fairly sheltered spot, or tolerating the worst possible storms could greatly complicate things.
A big lake could be used as well but artificial islands have been built many times in seas and oceans. Not in deep parts but there are lots of shallow areas.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 10, 2018, 02:13:53 am
MIT has a project to build 25 m diameter spheres 400m below off shore windturbines.  Then pump water in and out for energy storage.

http://pergatory.mit.edu/ores/ (http://pergatory.mit.edu/ores/)


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 10, 2018, 02:53:39 am
MIT has a project to build 25 m diameter spheres 400m below off shore windturbines.  Then pump water in and out for energy storage.

http://pergatory.mit.edu/ores/ (http://pergatory.mit.edu/ores/)
I saw a proposal for this idea in the 80s, from people who were experimenting with ways to extract energy from waves. It seems MIT built a small model in 2011, but I can't find any references to work proceeding from there. The paper produced after that initial experiment is behind the IEEE pay wall.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 10, 2018, 05:14:15 am
What I mean is: you can make an artificial lake in the sea (and put solar panels and/or wind turbines inside and around it).
Do you mean building walls up from the seabed until they are much higher than the surface, and using the enclosed space as a high pool?

A cofferdam:
(https://i.imgur.com/t0xS34Y.png)

I've seen this proposed, but I don't think something like it has ever been constructed. I imagine it would need to be in a fairly sheltered spot, or tolerating the worst possible storms could greatly complicate things.
Water getting inside isn't really a problem for a power station.

(in fact it might be better to fill it up until the storm passes).



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 10, 2018, 12:38:16 pm
I've seen this proposed, but I don't think something like it has ever been constructed. I imagine it would need to be in a fairly sheltered spot, or tolerating the worst possible storms could greatly complicate things.
Water getting inside isn't really a problem for a power station.

(in fact it might be better to fill it up until the storm passes).
I was thinking more of strength issues. A raging storm can smash some impressively strong looking concrete structures. Any water that gets tossed into the high pool during a storm is a bonus. There have been wave power proposed based on actually exploiting this, but they don't seem very practical.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 10, 2018, 01:31:49 pm
http://pergatory.mit.edu/ores/ (http://pergatory.mit.edu/ores/)

I wonder if you couldn't just put a steel pipe on it and pull it "vacuum" from the surface, or would you lose too much energy from turbulence?

PS. actual paper for their concept here (https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/78934). Frauenhofer is working on it (https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/german-institute-successfully-tests-underwater-energy-storage-sphere/) as well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 10, 2018, 01:59:14 pm
Globally, hybrid hydroelectric + pumped storage systems are rare. Places where a high and a low pool can be sited are seldom places where the high pool can also intercept and store water from a major river. The list in your second reference is basically a list of pure pumped storage systems, with no rain energy capture.

OK.

Is this terribly important to the "power compnaies(sic) don't have energy storage" debate? They obviously do have pumped storage, just not many where the high pools are fed by major rivers.

(and presumably there's not much demand for those even if there happens to be a suitable low pool - the high pool is being filled up anyway)

I think you are missing the point.  These energy storage reservoirs are very important and used regularly. If they wern’t just think of all of the energy and drinking water that would be lost if the water were not “recycled”/pumped back to the higher resivors at night.


 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 10, 2018, 02:51:19 pm
MIT has a project to build 25 m diameter spheres 400m below off shore windturbines.  Then pump water in and out for energy storage.

http://pergatory.mit.edu/ores/ (http://pergatory.mit.edu/ores/)
I saw a proposal for this idea in the 80s, from people who were experimenting with ways to extract energy from waves. It seems MIT built a small model in 2011, but I can't find any references to work proceeding from there. The paper produced after that initial experiment is behind the IEEE pay wall.

Harvesting wave energy is nothing new.  In Santa Cruz, California the remains of the concrete foundation which was used to harvest wave energy over 100 years ago still remains.  It was abandoned becuase of advances in technology.

Then UC Berkeley buitl somehting called a Damital 30-40 years ago to harvest energy from ocean waves/current.  Just wasn't const effective.

A few places around the world do haverest energy from ocean waves.  But like solar and wind it's unperdicatble and the ocean water is highly corrisove.
 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 10, 2018, 03:33:32 pm
Then UC Berkeley buitl somehting called a Damital 30-40 years ago to harvest energy from ocean waves/current.  Just wasn't const effective.

A few places around the world do haverest energy from ocean waves.  But like solar and wind it's unperdicatble and the ocean water is highly corrisove.

Moving things with waves always felt like a bad idea to me. Waves are very inconsistent, it might be calm, it might be storm, Murphy's law says you'll never get it right.

Tidal energy seems much more practical (ie. huge volumes of water being moved around by the moon). On any coastline there's thousands of inlets and coves that fill up with water then empty themselves twice a day. You can generate in both directions so that's four electricity generation cycles/day.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 10, 2018, 03:54:54 pm
Many of you have posted good ideas, but have you apply the laws of physics to those ideas?
Water has been used to power factories for 100s of years.  There's a excellent video serices on YouTube from one of the colleges in England about the history of water powers.  Well worth watching if you are intersted.

Water power is just the simple formula of PV = mgh Note that in the formula m and g are constants when we talk about wather.  (Okay there is some m difference if we are talking seawater vs. fresh water.)

We really only have two factors to consider when it comes to water power.  The height of the water and the quanitiy of water.

Have any of you done the calcualtion to figure out how much water and at what height it takes to continually produce 800 watts of electricity for one day?  It's a simple math problem. 

The amount of water needed to produce 800 watts of electricity to power an 800 watt light bulb continuously for 24 hours is, (and lets make it 100% efficient so there's no energy loss) with a height difference of 10 feet/3 m is....... ready for this .......  over 600,000 gallons/2271247 liters.  That's the amount of water 25-30 backyard swimming pools.

We would latterly have to build a reservoir the size of the ocean and then move all of the water in the ocean up 10 feet to provide enough power for the world for one year.

Not exactly feasible is it?

But look a the formula again.  PE=mgh    A height increase is directly proportional to the energy.  So increasing the height of the 100 feet/30 meters would allow us to use 100 times less water to produce the same amount of energy.

If you understand this, then you get why hydroelectric dams are 100s of feet/meters tall.  As America was becoming electrofied about 100 years ago we damed every river we could to get "free" power.  It's not 100 years later and every river that could be damed and every reservoir which could be built was built.

And now there are groups of people who want the hydroelectric reservoirs dismantled for environmental reasons.  And don't bash them as the do have a valid point.

So while in theory all of the ideas for getting power from water might sound good, the math and physics just get in the way.  If only there was a way we could break the laws of physics.

Solar and wind sound like good ideas.  But last night on the news here in California we were told to expect power outages this summer.  We have so much solar power being produced here the power companies have cut back in there daily production.  Remember they just can't open a valve in a reservoir and instantly produce all the extra electricity people are using.  It takes time.

So what's happening is if there's no wind, and if clouds suddenly decrease solar output there won't be enough electricity to meet the demand and we will be with out power.

After looking at all the options we have solar/wind/hydro has it's limitations.  The best and only solution we have is next gen nuclear.  Lets' hope Bill Gate's company, Paul Allen's company, the company in Canada, NIF and ITER get it figured out before there are another billion people on this planet. 

Depending on when you were born the population of the word has doubled.  And our energy consumption has increased something like 10 times.  Do the math, we just don't have enough raw materials to produce the number of solar panels the world needs.  Same is true with wind.

Next Gen nuclear is the only viable solution we know of.






 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 10, 2018, 03:59:14 pm
Then UC Berkeley buitl somehting called a Damital 30-40 years ago to harvest energy from ocean waves/current.  Just wasn't const effective.

A few places around the world do haverest energy from ocean waves.  But like solar and wind it's unperdicatble and the ocean water is highly corrisove.

Moving things with waves always felt like a bad idea to me. Waves are very inconsistent, it might be calm, it might be storm, Murphy's law says you'll never get it right.

Tidal energy seems much more practical (ie. huge volumes of water being moved around by the moon). On any coastline there's thousands of inlets and coves that fill up with water then empty themselves twice a day. You can generate in both directions so that's four electricity generation cycles/day.


Do the math PE=mgh for tidal energy.  There not eneough energy there to make it worthwile.   To produce 800 watts for four hours with a 5 foot /2m change in elevation would take 250,000 gallons of water.  Lot of water for only 800 watts for 4 hours.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 10, 2018, 04:14:22 pm
Quote
  There not eneough energy there to make it worthwile. 

Works and is worthwile since 1966
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usine_mar%C3%A9motrice_de_la_Rance

Quote
Lot of water for only 800 watts for 4 hours.
That's OK, the ocean is filled with a lot of water.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 10, 2018, 04:15:23 pm
The amount of water needed to produce 800 watts of electricity to power an 800 watt light bulb continuously for 24 hours is, (and lets make it 100% efficient so there's no energy loss) with a height difference of 10 feet/3 m is....... ready for this .......  over 600,000 gallons/2271247 liters.  That's the amount of water 25-30 backyard swimming pools.

We would latterly have to build a reservoir the size of the ocean and then move all of the water in the ocean up 10 feet to provide enough power for the world for one year.
But you don't have to store the amount of energy for one year. The hydro storage is only there to serve as a temporary buffer to smooth out the differences between supply and demand. Also 3 meters is a bit low. Creating a lake which is 5 to 10 meters above sea level is certainly doable.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 10, 2018, 04:34:38 pm
Have any of you done the calcualtion to figure out how much water and at what height it takes to continually produce 800 watts of electricity for one day?  It's a simple math problem. 
...

So while in theory all of the ideas for getting power from water might sound good, the math and physics just get in the way.  If only there was a way we could break the laws of physics.

Next Gen nuclear is the only viable solution we know of.

I sort of agree, bu there's a whole lot of places which are exceptions. eg. There's a whole lot of islands in Scotland with only a few houses and where people are used to controlling their electricity use (ie. They know they can't switch everything on at once, they turn off lights when they leave rooms, etc.). ie. They're not American teenagers.

Some sort of tidal/wind generator with good storage (eg. Tesla batteries) could set them up nicely.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 10, 2018, 06:54:18 pm
Then UC Berkeley buitl somehting called a Damital 30-40 years ago to harvest energy from ocean waves/current.  Just wasn't const effective.

A few places around the world do haverest energy from ocean waves.  But like solar and wind it's unperdicatble and the ocean water is highly corrisove.

Moving things with waves always felt like a bad idea to me. Waves are very inconsistent, it might be calm, it might be storm, Murphy's law says you'll never get it right.

Tidal energy seems much more practical (ie. huge volumes of water being moved around by the moon). On any coastline there's thousands of inlets and coves that fill up with water then empty themselves twice a day. You can generate in both directions so that's four electricity generation cycles/day.
The problem with tidal energy is its only practical in a handful of places around the planet. The general global tide is only half a metre, and the energy is too spread out to gather effectively. You need special instances above a continental shelf, like the Severn Estuary in the UK, the Rance River in France, or a couple of spots in Korea, where the tides are consistently large.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 11, 2018, 02:22:42 am
The amount of water needed to produce 800 watts of electricity to power an 800 watt light bulb continuously for 24 hours is, (and lets make it 100% efficient so there's no energy loss) with a height difference of 10 feet/3 m is....... ready for this .......  over 600,000 gallons/2271247 liters.  That's the amount of water 25-30 backyard swimming pools.

We would latterly have to build a reservoir the size of the ocean and then move all of the water in the ocean up 10 feet to provide enough power for the world for one year.
But you don't have to store the amount of energy for one year. The hydro storage is only there to serve as a temporary buffer to smooth out the differences between supply and demand. Also 3 meters is a bit low. Creating a lake which is 5 to 10 meters above sea level is certainly doable.

It is doable yes, but look at how little elcetricty would be producesd.  The cost to just produce electricity for the tidal system in France for 50 years has been $0.15 (USD).  Do you have any idea how expensiv that is?  It's nearly 10 times the cost of the other methods.  The public would not invest in a system that won't pary for itself until they are nearly dead.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 11, 2018, 02:26:13 am
Quote
  There not eneough energy there to make it worthwile. 

Works and is worthwile since 1966
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usine_mar%C3%A9motrice_de_la_Rance

Quote
Lot of water for only 800 watts for 4 hours.
That's OK, the ocean is filled with a lot of water.

You are correct.  Perfect energy source for Next Gen Nuclear.  No need for tidal, solar, wind or hydro with Next Gen Nuclear.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: IanMacdonald on May 11, 2018, 06:23:40 am
A recent news report of a fire in a Tesla which killed two people has highlighted the issue of lithium battery safety. Now, we all know that 18650s have to be treated with some care as shorts can have nasty consequences. However, it occurs to me that the risk of a short in an electric car is hundreds or thousands of times higher than that in a drill, torch or laptop owing to the sheer number of cells used. It only takes one cell to short, and the whole pack can go up.

So, at what number of cells does the shorting risk become unacceptable?  :-//
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 11, 2018, 09:07:10 am
AFAICS with liquid cooling the risks aren't all that high ... even a small amount of liquid can slow things down considerably. Sure, if you're unconscious after an accident it can eventually kill you, but so can a fossil fuel fire.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 11, 2018, 09:39:08 am
The amount of water needed to produce 800 watts of electricity to power an 800 watt light bulb continuously for 24 hours is, (and lets make it 100% efficient so there's no energy loss) with a height difference of 10 feet/3 m is....... ready for this .......  over 600,000 gallons/2271247 liters.  That's the amount of water 25-30 backyard swimming pools.

We would latterly have to build a reservoir the size of the ocean and then move all of the water in the ocean up 10 feet to provide enough power for the world for one year.
But you don't have to store the amount of energy for one year. The hydro storage is only there to serve as a temporary buffer to smooth out the differences between supply and demand. Also 3 meters is a bit low. Creating a lake which is 5 to 10 meters above sea level is certainly doable.
It is doable yes, but look at how little elcetricty would be producesd. The public would not invest in a system that won't pary for itself until they are nearly dead.
That depends on whether hydro storage is cheaper or more expensive compared to batteries. I'm not talking about production here.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 11, 2018, 09:46:07 am
A recent news report of a fire in a Tesla which killed two people has highlighted the issue of lithium battery safety. Now, we all know that 18650s have to be treated with some care as shorts can have nasty consequences. However, it occurs to me that the risk of a short in an electric car is hundreds or thousands of times higher than that in a drill, torch or laptop owing to the sheer number of cells used. It only takes one cell to short, and the whole pack can go up.

So, at what number of cells does the shorting risk become unacceptable?  :-//

You know that there's 17 automobile fires per hour in the USA, right? That four people die per week as a result?

https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/By-topic/Property-type-and-vehicles/Vehicles (https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/By-topic/Property-type-and-vehicles/Vehicles)


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 11, 2018, 02:57:02 pm
A recent news report of a fire in a Tesla which killed two people has highlighted the issue of lithium battery safety. Now, we all know that 18650s have to be treated with some care as shorts can have nasty consequences. However, it occurs to me that the risk of a short in an electric car is hundreds or thousands of times higher than that in a drill, torch or laptop owing to the sheer number of cells used. It only takes one cell to short, and the whole pack can go up.

So, at what number of cells does the shorting risk become unacceptable?  :-//

You know that there's 17 automobile fires per hour in the USA, right? That four people die per week as a result?

https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/By-topic/Property-type-and-vehicles/Vehicles (https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/By-topic/Property-type-and-vehicles/Vehicles)

[pile on]
Not only that but battery fires proceed at much slower rates than gasoline/petrol fires.  With a battery fire, you generally have on the order of several minutes before it becomes threatening.  With gasoline/petrol, you have on the order of seconds.  I don't see people freaking out over gasoline safety even though it's a huge problem. By all means, lets focus on something that kills at 1/100 the rate of gas fires.

In the recent crash, it's unclear if the occupants were killed by the fire or by the crash.  They were traveling at 60 mph or higher on a road posted for 25 mph and known locally as "dead man's curve". I'm pretty sure the same result would have happened with any other car in that situation.

And, all EV manufacturers have put a huge amount of safety engineering into their battery packs.  A single cell failure does not cause a runaway situation.  The fires we have seen in Tesla's have occurred after massive damage to the battery structures.

Oh and while I'm at it, there is strong evidence that reported auto fire statistics understate the number of auto fires and related deaths
[/pile on]
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 11, 2018, 03:20:55 pm
Alternative energy is always going to have to be a mix

Solar - lots of places don't have a lot of sunshine (probably not the ideal place for Solar here)
Wind - some places are windy, some aren't
Hydro - some places have rivers, some don't (we're blessed here w/ lots of Hydro power)

and so on

However, initiatives like California's new "New Construction requires Solar Panels" makes sense
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/californian-solar-panels-housing-1.4656813 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/californian-solar-panels-housing-1.4656813)

Let's use the sensible technology where it makes sense.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 11, 2018, 05:15:40 pm
The amount of water needed to produce 800 watts of electricity to power an 800 watt light bulb continuously for 24 hours is, (and lets make it 100% efficient so there's no energy loss) with a height difference of 10 feet/3 m is....... ready for this .......  over 600,000 gallons/2271247 liters.  That's the amount of water 25-30 backyard swimming pools.

We would latterly have to build a reservoir the size of the ocean and then move all of the water in the ocean up 10 feet to provide enough power for the world for one year.
But you don't have to store the amount of energy for one year. The hydro storage is only there to serve as a temporary buffer to smooth out the differences between supply and demand. Also 3 meters is a bit low. Creating a lake which is 5 to 10 meters above sea level is certainly doable.
It is doable yes, but look at how little elcetricty would be producesd. The public would not invest in a system that won't pary for itself until they are nearly dead.
That depends on whether hydro storage is cheaper or more expensive compared to batteries. I'm not talking about production here.

Using some critical thinking skill one would quickkly realize hydro-strorage is many, many, many times more cost effective that batteries.  THere's a reason we build dams to and not banks of batteries for energy storage.  You do understand how little energy is stored in batteries in comparison to a hydro-electric storage pond.  If you are unsure, it's a simple math calculation anyone could do.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 11, 2018, 05:29:40 pm
A recent news report of a fire in a Tesla which killed two people has highlighted the issue of lithium battery safety. Now, we all know that 18650s have to be treated with some care as shorts can have nasty consequences. However, it occurs to me that the risk of a short in an electric car is hundreds or thousands of times higher than that in a drill, torch or laptop owing to the sheer number of cells used. It only takes one cell to short, and the whole pack can go up.

So, at what number of cells does the shorting risk become unacceptable?  :-//
I wonder how many people are killed by gasoline fires?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 11, 2018, 05:50:47 pm
Alternative energy is always going to have to be a mix

Solar - lots of places don't have a lot of sunshine (probably not the ideal place for Solar here)
Wind - some places are windy, some aren't
Hydro - some places have rivers, some don't (we're blessed here w/ lots of Hydro power)

and so on

However, initiatives like California's new "New Construction requires Solar Panels" makes sense
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/californian-solar-panels-housing-1.4656813 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/californian-solar-panels-housing-1.4656813)

Let's use the sensible technology where it makes sense.


You might want to review your math calculations and consider the impart each of these has on the planet.
Hydro - some places have rivers, some don't (we're blessed here w/ lots of Hydro power)  We don't have "lots" of hydro power.  Do a bit of research, very little energy is produced with hydro.  Would hardly call that lots.  And you are not factoring in the environmental impact hydro power has created.  In some areas the impact has been the ability to produce power while wiping out the supply of food.  In some areas they are dismantling hydro to bring back the food supply the hydro eliminated.

Solar - lots of places don't have a lot of sunshine (probably not the ideal place for Solar here)  Even places with have lots of sunshine have problems with solar.  In sunny Nevada solar isn't working out for them.  And where I live in sunny California we've been told becuse so many people have installed solar and with solar productiion being unreliable to expect blackouts. 

Wind - some places are windy, some aren't.  And what happens when the windy places have no wind for weeks as has happened in California, Germany and England?  We either have blackouts or we burn more coal and hydrocarbons.


Why did you not mention Next Gen Nuclear?
Not only do we have an endless supply of fuel, (water) we will be able to produce as much electricity as the world can consume.  And not only that it's clean, green, renewable, cheap, non-polluting, environmentally friendly, no radioactive byproducts or waste, endless supply of fuel with no mining or processing, and should there be a massive nuclear accident in 15-20 years the nuclear fuel will have completely decayed away and the area would be completely safe to inhabit.

Just look at who is working on NextGen Nucelar, ITER, NIF, TerraPower, Alpha Energy, Helion, General Atomics, CFETR, EAST, JET and Google.  We need solar, wind, hydro and battery storage until Next Gen Nuclear comes online.  Once that happens wind, solar, tidal, and hydro will be a thing of the past.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 11, 2018, 05:54:06 pm
A recent news report of a fire in a Tesla which killed two people has highlighted the issue of lithium battery safety. Now, we all know that 18650s have to be treated with some care as shorts can have nasty consequences. However, it occurs to me that the risk of a short in an electric car is hundreds or thousands of times higher than that in a drill, torch or laptop owing to the sheer number of cells used. It only takes one cell to short, and the whole pack can go up.

So, at what number of cells does the shorting risk become unacceptable?  :-//
I wonder how many people are killed by gasoline fires?

Or at refineries.  But nothing can compare with the 100s of thousand who have been killed as the result of coal mining.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 11, 2018, 11:03:12 pm
Do a bit of research, very little energy is produced with hydro.  Would hardly call that lots. 

I don't have to do any research; 90% of the electricity produced in this province is via Hydro Electric

So much in fact that the electricity company is called "BC Hydro".



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 11, 2018, 11:18:44 pm
Do a bit of research, very little energy is produced with hydro.  Would hardly call that lots. 

I don't have to do any research; 90% of the electricity produced in this province is via Hydro Electric

So much in fact that the electricity company is called "BC Hydro".

It is similar in the pacific northwest US. My utillity's electricity is 87.5 % hydropower generated.  Overall, hydropower supplies about 50% of the entire Pacific NW's power - an area that includes 4 states and 10s of millions of people.

Clearly - hydropower does account for LOTS of power generation in some geographic regions.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 11, 2018, 11:49:30 pm
Do a bit of research, very little energy is produced with hydro.  Would hardly call that lots. 

I don't have to do any research; 90% of the electricity produced in this province is via Hydro Electric

So much in fact that the electricity company is called "BC Hydro".
I think what Doug is trying to say is that on a global scale not a lot of electricity is being produced by hydro power plants and that you need to move a large volume of water to generate a substantial amount of energy. Exceptions don't make the rule.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 12, 2018, 12:08:56 am
I think what Doug is trying to say is that on a global scale not a lot of electricity is being produced by hydro power plants

What boffin said:
Hydro - some places have rivers, some don't (we're blessed here w/ lots of Hydro power)

Doug's response to boffin:
Hydro - some places have rivers, some don't (we're blessed here w/ lots of Hydro power)  We don't have "lots" of hydro power.  Do a bit of research, very little energy is produced with hydro.  Would hardly call that lots. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 02:46:44 am
The Pacific Norhtwest is just a very small portion of the world we live in.  There’s a great big world out theater with lots of different people.  Many have no electricity or clean drinking water.

Yes the electricty produced from the Northwest is exported to 4 other states.  But then whent he Nortwest need additional electrity any idea where is comes from?  It comes from coal, gas, wind, solar, hydro and nuclear from those 4 other states your grid is a part of.  Can I suggest taking a trip to see how others live?

Any idea how much of the world’s electricity is produced by hydro?  It’s 15%.  We’ve bulit 45,000 large dams worldwide.  In the Us there aren’t anymore river to dam.  We are tapped out when it comes to generating additional electricity from hydro.

As the population of our planet increases and consumes more electricty where is that electricty going to come from?  Right now solar and wind accounts for 2-3%.  The solar industry best estimates are in 40 years solar might be able to supply 12% of the worlds electricty needs.  It’s highly unlikely though.

So as the population increases and we use more electricty how are we going to produce that electrity?

Only one solution that’s scalable that’s not using hydrocarbons and that’s next gen nuclear.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 12, 2018, 05:47:38 am
The Pacific Northwest is just a very small portion of the world we live in.
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy. People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses. Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 03:12:50 pm
The Pacific Northwest is just a very small portion of the world we live in.
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy. People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses. Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.

So what's the answer?  Solar, wind and hydro in 30 years will at best exstimates only provide 30% of the electricty we need.  Where's the ohter 70% going to come from?  And was we know solar and wind aren't that greate either as England, United States and Germany all had to burn more fossil fuel due to a period of no wind and clouds.

That just leave fossil fuels and nuclear.  Wiht Next Gen nuclear being the ultimate solution.

Or does anyone have a better idea?  If so, it's not been presented.




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 12, 2018, 03:21:49 pm
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy.
For the 4 states that make up the PNW, over 50% of electricity production is from hydro  as of 2010 it was 58% (https://www.nwcouncil.org/media/6954090/2010-16.pdf) So more than only “a good chunk”.   

Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.

Quote
Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.
Worldwide, hydo accounts for about 20% of electricity production currently.

I would argue that, while it may not be possible to dramatically increase hydro capacity, if there is ever to be a world were fossil fuels  play little or no role in societal energy use, hydro will have to be the dominant source of power. Therefore total worldwide power consumption will need to be much less (as will world population!) This is barring some as of yet discovered energy source of course.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 12, 2018, 03:28:21 pm
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 12, 2018, 03:37:21 pm
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year
Yes, under development - as they have been for decades... EVs are here now - and adoption is growing exponentially.

Quote
At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
it will be at future moments as wel...  :P
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 12, 2018, 03:43:10 pm
So what's the answer?

There isn’t one.

It’s a predicament. The world has physical limits. Who’da thunk?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 03:46:05 pm
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy.
For the 4 states that make up the PNW, over 50% of electricity production is from hydro  as of 2010 it was 58% (https://www.nwcouncil.org/media/6954090/2010-16.pdf) So more than only “a good chunk”.   

Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.

Quote
Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.
Worldwide, hydo accounts for about 20% of electricity production currently.

I would argue that, while it may not be possible to dramatically increase hydro capacity, if there is ever to be a world were fossil fuels while play little or no role in societal energy use, hydro will have to be the dominant source of power. Therefore total worldwide power consumption will need to be much less (as will world population!) This is barring some as of yet discovered energy source of course.

You can argue with the facts all you like, but that won't change the facts.  Not sure why you are so fixated with the hydro power in the PNW.  I live in California and you are connected to our grid.  Just as some of your electrons make there way to us, some of our electrons generated by fossil fuels, wind, geo-thermal, solar and nuclear are making their way back to you.

The question your not answering is what will the rest of the world do?  We don't have anymore lakes or rivers to generate hydro power from, so where is the rest going to come from?

How do you propose we use less electricity?  Are you willing to ride a bike instead of driving an electric car?  And would you be willing to wash your clothes by hand instead of using an electric powered washing machine?

How do you propose to limit or reduce world population?  Would you volunteer to be the first to go?  China tried something like this not to long ago.  You might want to take a look to see how it worked out.  Or are you proposing another WWI or WWII type event or a flu pandemic to decrease the world's population?

Any idea what electricity has done for people?  It weren't for electricity this man would never have learned English and become a doctor. 

https://youtu.be/6sqnptxlCcw (https://youtu.be/6sqnptxlCcw)








 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 03:56:27 pm
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.

Have you done the math on bio-fuels?  If all of land in California, Texas, Iowa and Kansas were used to produce biofuel for one year any idea what we could power with that?  We could power all of the cars in California for just about one month.

Or another way to look at biofuels is like this.  For every mile a car is powered with biofuels a plot of land one mile long and six miles wide would be needed.

Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 04:13:18 pm
So what's the answer?

There isn’t one.

It’s a predicament. The world has physical limits. Who’da thunk?
\

See that answer is a no answer.  It's kind of like a sinking ship and filling up a lifeboat.  If we continue what we are doing it's not going to end well.  There are are a limited number of people who can fit in a lifeboat before it is overloaded and would sink too.  What we need to do is something a bit different such as use the resources we have, (the sinking ship) to build additional before it sinks.

That's what we are doing.

Solar and Wind - Is going to help a little.

Hydro- We've built all we can.

Coal/fossil fuels - Word when there were a lot less people in the world and we didn't use very much.  But not working for us now.

Nuclear - We would be in much better shape, but people have made some very stupid mistakes.  But still, we have 500 years of
nuclear fuel we don't know what to do with.  And it's going to be with us for millions upon millions of years.  (But I won't.)

Then there's Next Gen Nuclear - No long lived radioactive waste.  It's renewable, green, non-polluting and we have oceans filled with fuel.  Seems like the way to go to me.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 04:21:20 pm
EVs are here now - and adoption is growing exponentially.
Yes, they are.  The dealership where I purchased my electric cars said sales of electric cars have been growing exponentially as well.
Of the 500 cars they sell per year EV's have had the fastest growth.
In 2015 they sold 1
2016 they sold 2
and in 2018 the exceeded this exponential growth rate and sold 5.

You are absolutely right, EV sales are experiencing exponential sales.  Don't you love those figures?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 12, 2018, 04:34:03 pm
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient on average so with more efficient cars it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 04:48:44 pm
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient so with more efficient vehicles it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.

I would agree it would be possible if we could get the automobile manufactures to produce cars to get 10,000 miles per gallon.
But we know that's not possible.  Just how much more fuel efficient can the car manufactures make the cars?  Have you done the math calculations?  Modern cars aren't poluting like in they use to and the onboard computers enerure the fuel is being burned with 99.9999% efficinecy.  So where's this extra energy going to come from to move the car?

I would like to see your calcuations for  agricultural leftovers being able to supply neearly 100% of the US's fuel needs.  Please post.





 



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 12, 2018, 04:52:49 pm
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient so with more efficient vehicles it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
I would agree it would be possible if we could get the automobile manufactures to produce cars to get 10,000 miles per gallon.

I would like to see your calcuations for  agricultural leftovers being able to supply neearly 100% of the US's fuel needs.  Please post.
There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 12, 2018, 05:02:32 pm
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy.
For the 4 states that make up the PNW, over 50% of electricity production is from hydro  as of 2010 it was 58% (https://www.nwcouncil.org/media/6954090/2010-16.pdf) So more than only “a good chunk”.   

Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.

Quote
Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.
Worldwide, hydo accounts for about 20% of electricity production currently.

I would argue that, while it may not be possible to dramatically increase hydro capacity, if there is ever to be a world were fossil fuels while play little or no role in societal energy use, hydro will have to be the dominant source of power. Therefore total worldwide power consumption will need to be much less (as will world population!) This is barring some as of yet discovered energy source of course.

You can argue with the facts all you like, but that won't change the facts. 
Huh?? I'm not arguing with facts.  I have been presenting facts. (and providing references to support them).

Quote
Not sure why you are so fixated with the hydro power in the PNW.
   I'm not fixated on anything. I was simply presenting facts about PNW hydro that contradicted yours and others unsupported unfactual statements.

Your style seems to be this: make a whole bunch of broad statements - many unsupported by facts - and see what sticks. When someone presents facts that contradict some of your statements - then either misrepresent their views or move on to another broad set of statements - which may or may not be true - then again see what sticks and see what gets a response from someone....  It's becoming borderline trollish.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 05:03:32 pm

There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.

Friend you said, "I did the math."  But in reality you really didn't do the math calculation you said you did because you are pawing it off to some other web site.  If you didn't do the math, how do you know they are correct? 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 05:05:44 pm
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy.
For the 4 states that make up the PNW, over 50% of electricity production is from hydro  as of 2010 it was 58% (https://www.nwcouncil.org/media/6954090/2010-16.pdf) So more than only “a good chunk”.   

Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.

Quote
Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.
Worldwide, hydo accounts for about 20% of electricity production currently.

I would argue that, while it may not be possible to dramatically increase hydro capacity, if there is ever to be a world were fossil fuels while play little or no role in societal energy use, hydro will have to be the dominant source of power. Therefore total worldwide power consumption will need to be much less (as will world population!) This is barring some as of yet discovered energy source of course.

You can argue with the facts all you like, but that won't change the facts. 
Huh?? I'm not arguing with facts.  I have been presenting facts. (and providing references to support them).

Quote
Not sure why you are so fixated with the hydro power in the PNW.
   I'm not fixated on anything. I was simply presenting facts about PNW hydro that contradicted yours and other unsupported unfactual statements.

Oh, it appeared like you were saying because you get about 50% of your electricity from hydro (and we get some of that too) that's what the rest of the world should do.  So help me out here, what's your point?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 12, 2018, 05:09:18 pm

Oh, it appeared like you were saying because you get about 50% of your electricity from hydro (and we get some of that too) that's what the rest of the world should do.  So help me out here, what's your point?

No, my point was the opposite. Read my response again.  I'll repeat what I added to my post above:

Your style seems to be this: make a whole bunch of broad statements - many unsupported by facts - and see what sticks. When someone presents facts that contradict some of your statements - then either misrepresent their views or move on to another broad set of statements - which may or may not be true - then again see what sticks and see what gets a response from someone....  It's becoming borderline trollish.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 12, 2018, 05:15:02 pm
Or does anyone have a better idea?  If so, it's not been presented.

There is no perfect solution.

Nuclear is about as good as it gets but most people are against it because they think "nuclear power" means those old 1960's nuclear weapon production plants. Good luck changing that mindset.

Wind/solar is good but it needs to be paired with a good storage system which we currently don't have. It could also go very wrong if we have the wrong sort of weather for a few weeks and no backup plan.

Tidal power is very reliable but not realistic on a large scale.

Geothermal is good if you're lucky enough to have lots of volcanoes around, but that's not everywhere.

Coal gas works but it's slowly wrecking the planet, we need to move away from that.

Anything I missed?

Best answer: As much solar/wind power as we can practically install and nuclear as backup.

(maybe coal/gas as backup in the short term and nuclear plans for the future).

No private comapny's going to build the nuclear stations under those conditions though so unless we get governments to do it we have to go back down the big snake all the way to square one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 12, 2018, 05:16:00 pm

There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.

Friend you said, "I did the math."  But in reality you really didn't do the math calculation you said you did because you are pawing it off to some other web site.  If you didn't do the math, how do you know they are correct?
I did the math long ago and remembered the result. I showed you the sources I used so you can verify by yourself.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 05:17:05 pm

Oh, it appeared like you were saying because you get about 50% of your electricity from hydro (and we get some of that too) that's what the rest of the world should do.  So help me out here, what's your point?

No, my point was the opposite. Read my response again.  I'll repeat what I added to my post above:

Your style seems to be this: make a whole bunch of broad statements - many unsupported by facts - and see what sticks. When someone presents facts that contradict some of your statements - then either misrepresent their views or move on to another broad set of statements - which may or may not be true - then again see what sticks and see what gets a response from someone....  It's becoming borderline trollish.

Fair enough.  I'm just asking people to provide some credible evidence to support their claims.
For example the last poster stated he did the math and found ag biomass in the US could provide 100% of the US's fule needs.
When I asked him to share his cacalutations he then refers to a web stie with has no such calculations.
www.-dsm.com (http://www.-dsm.com)  Instead this is marketing matererial so farmers might be able to make a few extra bucks.

Feel free to chalage me on any claim I have made.    I might be wrong and well admit it.  But only if crediable evidence can be presented.  (And please don't waste anyone's time with "Free Energy" or anyouther BS that viloates the law of physics.)






Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 05:21:56 pm

There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.

Friend you said, "I did the math."  But in reality you really didn't do the math calculation you said you did because you are pawing it off to some other web site.  If you didn't do the math, how do you know they are correct?
I did the math long ago and remembered the result. I showed you the sources I used so you can verify by yourself.

Intersting that UC Berkeley scientests calcaulation are off by a magnitude that's over a million orders from your calculations.  Any possibility you made a mistake?  UC Berkeley scientests calculations have been peer reviewed and found to be accuarate.  Have your calcuations been peer reviewed?  Or have the calcaulation on the web site you provided been peer reviewed?  Or could it just be marketing BS?


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 12, 2018, 05:54:55 pm
So what's the answer?  Solar, wind and hydro in 30 years will at best exstimates only provide 30% of the electricty we need.
That will probably be around two orders of magnitude more than next gen nuclear.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 06:00:21 pm
So what's the answer?  Solar, wind and hydro in 30 years will at best exstimates only provide 30% of the electricty we need.
That will probably be around two orders of magnitude more than next gen nuclear.

Do you know how much of Europe is expected to be powered by the one Next Gen Nuclear power plant being built in France?  And were you live aren't you getting about 30% of your electricity from nuclear power plants in France?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on May 12, 2018, 07:13:58 pm
Then there's Next Gen Nuclear - No long lived radioactive waste.  It's renewable, green, non-polluting and we have oceans filled with fuel.  Seems like the way to go to me.
Is there a fusion reactor (besides the sun) that's actually commercially viable for power generation?
Just how much more fuel efficient can the car manufactures make the cars?  Have you done the math calculations?  Modern cars aren't poluting like in they use to and the onboard computers enerure the fuel is being burned with 99.9999% efficinecy.  So where's this extra energy going to come from to move the car?
Most car engines are only about 25% efficient, with the best commercial designs topping out at around 40%. The real gains are from making the car itself more aerodynamic, of which if we exclude plug ins, the best one on the US market - Prius Eco - does 58 MPG highway. GM made a few EV1 hybrid prototypes 20 years ago that have outdone that at 80 MPG. They had a winning design, but let their biggest competitor take the market...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 12, 2018, 07:25:46 pm
There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.

Friend you said, "I did the math."  But in reality you really didn't do the math calculation you said you did because you are pawing it off to some other web site.  If you didn't do the math, how do you know they are correct?
I did the math long ago and remembered the result. I showed you the sources I used so you can verify by yourself.
Intersting that UC Berkeley scientests calcaulation are off by a magnitude that's over a million orders from your calculations.  Any possibility you made a mistake?  UC Berkeley scientests calculations have been peer reviewed and found to be accuarate.  Have your calcuations been peer reviewed?  Or have the calcaulation on the web site you provided been peer reviewed?  Or could it just be marketing BS?
That depends on who has been paying the UC Berkely scientists and what the exact question was they where seeking an answer for. On the other hand there is not much reason to doubt the numbers Poet-DSM has put on their website. Poet-DSM has invested several tens of millions of dollars and DSM is a major player in high-tech chemicals (a multi billions dollar annual revenue). All in all I think they know a little bit more about their bio-fuel than some desk jockeys in a dusty office. Also keep in mind that shareholders and the authorities won't like it when the numbers turn out to be way off so there is also a legal reason not to fudge too much with the numbers.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 12, 2018, 08:06:08 pm
Do you know how much of Europe is expected to be powered by the one Next Gen Nuclear power plant being built in France?
I also know what liquid sodium does better and more often than help maintain good uptime in a nuclear plant ...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 09:06:53 pm
Then there's Next Gen Nuclear - No long lived radioactive waste.  It's renewable, green, non-polluting and we have oceans filled with fuel.  Seems like the way to go to me.
Is there a fusion reactor (besides the sun) that's actually commercially viable for power generation?
Just how much more fuel efficient can the car manufactures make the cars?  Have you done the math calculations?  Modern cars aren't poluting like in they use to and the onboard computers enerure the fuel is being burned with 99.9999% efficinecy.  So where's this extra energy going to come from to move the car?
Most car engines are only about 25% efficient, with the best commercial designs topping out at around 40%. The real gains are from making the car itself more aerodynamic, of which if we exclude plug ins, the best one on the US market - Prius Eco - does 58 MPG highway. GM made a few EV1 hybrid prototypes 20 years ago that have outdone that at 80 MPG. They had a winning design, but let their biggest competitor take the market...

Cars are already aerodynamic, car companies did that about 15 years ago by lowering the roof line.  What do you expect them to do, drop the roofline again to make it more aerodynamic?  Many Americans can't fit into most of the current cars or trucks.  Take a look at the short list on cars for tall people .com.  It's a very short list.   Not very practical if one is tall or has a family.

Got anyother ideas? 






Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 09:14:31 pm
Do you know how much of Europe is expected to be powered by the one Next Gen Nuclear power plant being built in France?
I also know what liquid sodium does better and more often than help maintain good uptime in a nuclear plant ...

If sodium does better why hasn't Sorensen received any funding?  Why did the Chinese after funding sodium reactor development and announcing they would have a reactor on line by 2020 stop?  And if sodium is much better why are the billionaires offering any funding or for that matter any country?  Could it be because sodium is not better based on current technology?  As I'm sure you are aware there are many technical issues which in 50 years have never been solved.

Sodium reacotrs are like cassette tapes and CRT, a thing of the past.  All fudning an efforts are on Next Gen Nuclear.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 12, 2018, 09:18:49 pm
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient on average so with more efficient cars it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
So you take the bio waste and turn it into bio fuel and burn it in a combustion engine.  Then it get's turned into carbon.  ummm
So that "waste" does it get plowed under and put back in the ground. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 09:26:42 pm
There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.

Friend you said, "I did the math."  But in reality you really didn't do the math calculation you said you did because you are pawing it off to some other web site.  If you didn't do the math, how do you know they are correct?
I did the math long ago and remembered the result. I showed you the sources I used so you can verify by yourself.
Intersting that UC Berkeley scientests calcaulation are off by a magnitude that's over a million orders from your calculations.  Any possibility you made a mistake?  UC Berkeley scientests calculations have been peer reviewed and found to be accuarate.  Have your calcuations been peer reviewed?  Or have the calcaulation on the web site you provided been peer reviewed?  Or could it just be marketing BS?
That depends on who has been paying the UC Berkely scientists and what the exact question was they where seeking an answer for. On the other hand there is not much reason to doubt the numbers Poet-DSM has put on their website. Poet-DSM has invested several tens of millions of dollars and DSM is a major player in high-tech chemicals (a multi billions dollar annual revenue). All in all I think they know a little bit more about their bio-fuel than some desk jockeys in a dusty office. Also keep in mind that shareholders and the authorities won't like it when the numbers turn out to be way off so there is also a legal reason not to fudge too much with the numbers.

Tax payers are the one who pay UC Berkeley scientists.   As I sure you are aware UC Berkeley is, and has been the world's No. 1 public university and fourth-best university overall in U.S.  Berkeley has a long a reputation unlike other universities for conducting outstanding peer reviewed research.  If you need a reminder just Periodic Table of the Elements.
Poet-DSM is a for profit company.  (Do you work or market for them?)  UC Berkeley professors do not profit from the research nor are they trying to sell a product or a technology like Poet-DSM is.

Dude you do realize Poet-DSM would not be in business if it were nor for the research at UC Berkeley. 

UC Berkeley’s calculations have been peer reviewed, have Poet-DSM?  If they have, I can’t find them.
Why share the math calculations you performed and lets compare them with the UC Berkeley researchers peer reviewed calculations?


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 12, 2018, 09:30:10 pm
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient on average so with more efficient cars it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
So you take the bio waste and turn it into bio fuel and burn it in a combustion engine.  Then it get's turned into carbon.  ummm
So that "waste" does it get plowed under and put back in the ground.

WAIT a second you are violating the laws of physics and chemistry.   Biomass is made up of carbon.  You aren't turning it into carbon, what's going on is an oxidative reaction whihc involves carbon.  The carbon was alwasy there.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 12, 2018, 09:31:42 pm
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient on average so with more efficient cars it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
So you take the bio waste and turn it into bio fuel and burn it in a combustion engine.  Then it get's turned into carbon.  ummm
So that "waste" does it get plowed under and put back in the ground.

WAIT a second you are violating the laws of physics and chemistry.   Biomass is made up of carbon.  You aren't turning it into carbon, what's going on is an oxidative reaction whihc involves carbon.  The carbon was alwasy there.
I know it was there.  But its tirned into CO2.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 12, 2018, 09:34:21 pm
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient on average so with more efficient cars it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
So you take the bio waste and turn it into bio fuel and burn it in a combustion engine.  Then it get's turned into carbon.  ummm
Plants build themselves from CO2 and H2O (water) forming Cellulose which is a hydrogen-carbon chain. When fermented into ethanol you can use it as fuel for an ICE. If you leave the agricultural leftovers to rot on the field then insects and bacteria will convert it into methane and CO2 anyway.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on May 12, 2018, 09:37:18 pm
Have not read this topic so might be double post but this is the prediction:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 12, 2018, 09:45:26 pm
If sodium does better why hasn't Sorensen received any funding?

I think you misunderstand me, we both seem to not think highly about Sodium cooled reactors. France's Astrid demonstrator and pie in the sky 30 year commercial build out is based on Sodium cooled fast reactor technology though. Sodium is the idea which just won't die, it always gets the most funding ... it never stops burning.

Personally I'm partial to lead cooled fast reactors, more realistic than MSR, less flammable than sodium.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 12, 2018, 10:16:59 pm
So while everyone is arguing over the next great thing, I'll drive my electric car, powered by a utility that is 90% hydro-electric. Not everyone has that option, but given I do, it seems like a good plan.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on May 13, 2018, 12:43:46 am
Cars are already aerodynamic, car companies did that about 15 years ago by lowering the roof line.  What do you expect them to do, drop the roofline again to make it more aerodynamic?  Many Americans can't fit into most of the current cars or trucks.  Take a look at the short list on cars for tall people .com.  It's a very short list.   Not very practical if one is tall or has a family.
As counterintuitive as it may sound, it's possible to make a car more aerodynamic by making it bigger, without reducing the height.
https://www.wired.com/2008/01/more-details-ab/ (https://www.wired.com/2008/01/more-details-ab/)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 13, 2018, 09:33:55 am
Quote
Cars are already aerodynamic, car companies did that about 15 years ago by lowering the roof line
Not really.
Cars may be more aerodynamic, but cars grew higher larger and longer over the years. Each generation of a given car grows a few centimeters in each direction, as well as many kilos. That compensates the efficiency gains of engines, so that gas mileage is maily stagnant since 15 years.

Quote
Most car engines are only about 25% efficient, with the best commercial designs topping out at around 40%.
Nope.
A car engine is 25%(gas) to 40%(diesel) efficient. But only at one specific load point (rpm, torque). That load point is typically when applying full throttle. At any other load points, it's 5-10% only.
In a real wolrd use, on the road, the efficiency of the engine in a car is 13% for gas, 18% for diesel.
The nice thing is there's a lot of saving potential: As a start, take the gas and diesel, burn it in an electrical plant, (Gas turbine engine), charge your BEV with that.
With the same amount of diesel or gas, you will get 2.5 times the mileage, and a much cleaner combustion !!!
Real world numbers. No contest. And that's with 100% fossil electricity, which never happens in practice, so it will be even much better as you add more renewables.
The fossil power plant gets over 45% efficiency(at all times), the BEV+charger + grid is 80%(at all times).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 10:10:48 am
A car engine is 25%(gas) to 40%(diesel) efficient. But only at one specific load point (rpm, torque). That load point is typically when applying full throttle. At any other load points, it's 5-10% only.
This may be true for an atmospheric V8 but a modern downsized engine with a turbo has a much wider RPM range where it reaches peak efficiency. The much lower fuel consumption those cars have proven that. All in all your claim is outdated. You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 13, 2018, 11:00:15 am
A car engine is 25%(gas) to 40%(diesel) efficient. But only at one specific load point (rpm, torque). That load point is typically when applying full throttle. At any other load points, it's 5-10% only.
This may be true for an atmospheric V8 but a modern downsized engine with a turbo has a much wider RPM range where it reaches peak efficiency. The much lower fuel consumption those cars have proven that. All in all your claim is outdated. You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
An ICE drijven by your average dumb human probably does no go above 20% efficiency.
A hybride probably reaches 35. An electric charged from a twin cycle gas plant (60% u)
probably does not reach 45.
People have no idea what a big deal 50% efficiency is in IC, the only engines I have seen documented above 45 are massive two strokes.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 12:14:19 pm
The CO2 emissions say otherwise and are a much simpler way to compare what is what. If your electricity takes 500gr/kWh to make then your EV is at 125gr/km. An efficient downsized ICE based car beats that (the efficient ones are currently around 105 to 120 gr/km in real driving circumstances).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 13, 2018, 01:22:32 pm
You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
Compare modern to modern, with a modern coal plant this simply isn't true.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 02:24:30 pm
You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
Compare modern to modern, with a modern coal plant this simply isn't true.
Numbers? And please no efficiency numbers which came out of a dark hole. Only the CO2 emissions count. Google (results) tells me that electricity made by burning coal produces between 900 to 1200 grams of CO2 per kWh which puts an EV between 225 to 300 gr of CO2 per km.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 13, 2018, 03:39:42 pm
You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
Compare modern to modern, with a modern coal plant this simply isn't true.
Numbers? And please no efficiency numbers which came out of a dark hole. Only the CO2 emissions count. Google (results) tells me that electricity made by burning coal produces between 900 to 1200 grams of CO2 per kWh which puts an EV between 225 to 300 gr of CO2 per km.
In turn I simplify the argument for the other side;
To get 1kilo of Fuel to a petrol station, it takes anything from 2kg (North Sea Brent) to over 5kg (tar sands) of fuel to get it there: Extraction, transport, burnt off unrifinables, waste, boil off, refining, warming or cooling for pumping, loading, transport, boil off during sea passage, unloading, pumping, truck transport, pumping to final storage, evaporation in tank (petrol in hot weather) etc. All energy intensive processes. A few criminally dirty.
And yeah, good luck on finding accurate figures as these are considered precious insider information, that can give critical bargaining situational awareness.
Comparing apples to apples IC to electric is basically impossible beyond general figures.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 13, 2018, 03:46:44 pm
Numbers? And please no efficiency numbers which came out of a dark hole. Only the CO2 emissions count.

You mean only your dark hole numbers count? No one is condensing the CO2 and weighing it and Siemens is a bit coy about the exact CO2 numbers for their coal plants (only say substantially less than 800g). So doing a bit of math to come close to the truth is far from unreasonable.

As I said before :
Quote
Lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2 WLTP. Latest leaf does 40/270 kwh/km WLTP, latest coal plants have 46+% efficiency, lets do 10% transmission/conversion losses, 340 grams of CO2 per kwh total energy for coal. So 40/270*340*1/(0.46*0.9) is 121+. Pretty much the same ignoring CO2 expenditure for mining/refining.

Can't find WLTP numbers for a Ford Fiesta Ecoboost, but another index promising realistic tests http://equaindex.com (http://equaindex.com) gives numbers in the same ballpark.

Efficiency numbers are for modern Siemens plants (https://www.energy.siemens.com/mx/pool/hq/power-generation/steam-turbines/downloads/new/siemens-steam-turbines-product-overview-EN-updated.pdf). Don't remember exactly where I got the CO2 per total energy for coal, but here's (https://www.volker-quaschning.de/datserv/CO2-spez/index_e.php) one from a quick google. Biofuel can bring down CO2/km for ICE, renewables can bring it down for coal plants ... and modern gas plants produces far less CO2 per kWh than coal (let alone nuclear).

tldr. even modern coal "fueled" EV can compete with ICE for CO2/km (I still don't think they are practical except as a second/third car for the upper middle class, but that's a different issue).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 04:25:06 pm
The maximum efficiency Siemens claims in that document is 61.5% for a gas powered power plant. This means coal must be substantially less efficient.
BTW the numbers from Volker-quaschning must be wrong! Even with the use of wind and solar the CO2 output per kWh in the NL is on par per kWh compared to what volker-quaschning says for just coal. All other sources I have found qoute numbers between 900 and 1200 gr of CO2/kWh when using coal as fuel.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 13, 2018, 04:41:28 pm
There's a huge spread in efficiencies, for the existing generators.

I'm not going to stop comparing a modern ICE to a modern EV fueled by a modern generating plant though.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 13, 2018, 05:04:12 pm
To get 1kilo of Fuel to a petrol station, it takes anything from 2kg (North Sea Brent) to over 5kg (tar sands) of fuel to get it there: Extraction, transport, burnt off unrifinables, waste, boil off, refining, warming or cooling for pumping, loading, transport, boil off during sea passage, unloading, pumping, truck transport, pumping to final storage, evaporation in tank (petrol in hot weather) etc. All energy intensive processes. A few criminally dirty.

This is an important point and one that those who go on about how large "proven reserves" mean we are in no danger of running out of oil anytime soon.  Yes, there are still large amounts of oil in the ground.  But as extraction, transport and refining becomes more and more energy intensive you eventually get to the point that there is no net energy returned.  This is already likely true in some instances of shale oil, tar sand and deep water oil.  It becomes a question of how much and how long we can borrow (money/energy) from the future to support our grossly greedy current developed nation lifestyles.  Eventually the jig will be up and the downslope will not be as gradual as the up slope (aka The Seneca Cliff (http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.it/2011/08/seneca-effect-origins-of-collapse.html)).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 13, 2018, 05:04:44 pm
Quote
lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2
That's not true. That is where the auto industry is lying about CO2 with their biased test cycles and legal loopholes permitting all kinds of cheating on "official fuel consumption"

Let's take some real world numbers from real world people who drive on really drive on the streets and record their mileage:
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=2&fuelsort=6&constyear_s=2017&powerunit=2 (https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=2&fuelsort=6&constyear_s=2017&powerunit=2)
You can see that the latest golf in gasoline version consumes in average 7.06 l/100km. Facts.

Incidentally, you also can see that a 2004 golf has  7,55 l/100km
a 1984 golf is at 8,21 l/100km in real world use
So the efficiency of engines are better, but the cars are heavier, wider, taller and longer, so the fuel consumption is not much better than 20-30 years ago, despite the lies of the auto industry.

Now    7,06 l/100km gives off  16,58 kg of CO2 / 100km   -> 165g/km for the Wv Golf


Now for the powerplant, taking the same gasoline as a fuel:
1 liter of gasoline gives about 9.5 kWh of thermal energy. The powerplant is 46% efficient, worst case, the grid losses are 10% -> 1liter of gas -> 3.93 kwh at the consumer.
A typical BEV, the nissan leaf consumes about 163Wh/km
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/33-Nissan/1296-Leaf.html?powerunit=2 (https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/33-Nissan/1296-Leaf.html?powerunit=2)

So that would be 16.3 kWh/100km -> 4.14 l/100km   -> 96 g/km for the Leaf with 100% fossil electricity !

So when you take 100% fossil electricity, and a bad efficiency power plant, the leaf is only 1.7x better than the VW golf gasoline in real world
When factoring in renewable electricity, depending on the country's electricity mix, you can come to much much higher factors.


Funny fact : the e-golf consumes 16.01 kWh/100km, practically the same than the leaf, and allows a direct comparison with the gasoline golf !!!
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=5&powerunit=2 (https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=5&powerunit=2)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 13, 2018, 05:17:42 pm
So while everyone is arguing over the next great thing, I'll drive my electric car, powered by a utility that is 90% hydro-electric. Not everyone has that option, but given I do, it seems like a good plan.

You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?    And where does the other 10% come from?  Would you be okay with driving your car 90% of the time you need it and walking the rest?  Probably not.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 13, 2018, 05:29:22 pm
Cars are already aerodynamic, car companies did that about 15 years ago by lowering the roof line.  What do you expect them to do, drop the roofline again to make it more aerodynamic?  Many Americans can't fit into most of the current cars or trucks.  Take a look at the short list on cars for tall people .com.  It's a very short list.   Not very practical if one is tall or has a family.
As counterintuitive as it may sound, it's possible to make a car more aerodynamic by making it bigger, without reducing the height.
https://www.wired.com/2008/01/more-details-ab/ (https://www.wired.com/2008/01/more-details-ab/)

Over the years there have been many claims by car owner/non-engineer inventors and swindlers of getting over 100 mpg.  But when someone does the actual measurement the numbers are much different.  Has anyone verified the guy's claims?  If so, I'm not seeing it.

My ICE can get 100 MPG every day of the week.  And not only that I can get my ICE car to move without using any gas.  It's got to be true because I'm saying so and it's on the Internet, right?  And I can make the same modification to your car.  Just meet me at the top of a mountain and I will prove to you it's possible.


 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 13, 2018, 05:36:09 pm
Quote
Cars are already aerodynamic, car companies did that about 15 years ago by lowering the roof line
Not really.
Cars may be more aerodynamic, but cars grew higher larger and longer over the years. Each generation of a given car grows a few centimeters in each direction, as well as many kilos. That compensates the efficiency gains of engines, so that gas mileage is maily stagnant since 15 years.

Quote
Most car engines are only about 25% efficient, with the best commercial designs topping out at around 40%.
Nope.
A car engine is 25%(gas) to 40%(diesel) efficient. But only at one specific load point (rpm, torque). That load point is typically when applying full throttle. At any other load points, it's 5-10% only.
In a real wolrd use, on the road, the efficiency of the engine in a car is 13% for gas, 18% for diesel.
The nice thing is there's a lot of saving potential: As a start, take the gas and diesel, burn it in an electrical plant, (Gas turbine engine), charge your BEV with that.
With the same amount of diesel or gas, you will get 2.5 times the mileage, and a much cleaner combustion !!!
Real world numbers. No contest. And that's with 100% fossil electricity, which never happens in practice, so it will be even much better as you add more renewables.
The fossil power plant gets over 45% efficiency(at all times), the BEV+charger + grid is 80%(at all times).

Can your provide some credible documentation to support your claims.  Are you sure that's not for carbonator cars?   It's my understanding with modern engines which are computer controlled are always burning the fuel with nearly 100% efficiency. 

Also the faster a car travels the more air resistance there is.  In theory everyone who lives at sea level should be getting worse mileage.  And everyone living at the tops of mountains should be getting better mpg because the air is thinner.

 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 13, 2018, 05:41:04 pm
You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
Compare modern to modern, with a modern coal plant this simply isn't true.
Numbers? And please no efficiency numbers which came out of a dark hole. Only the CO2 emissions count. Google (results) tells me that electricity made by burning coal produces between 900 to 1200 grams of CO2 per kWh which puts an EV between 225 to 300 gr of CO2 per km.
In turn I simplify the argument for the other side;
To get 1kilo of Fuel to a petrol station, it takes anything from 2kg (North Sea Brent) to over 5kg (tar sands) of fuel to get it there: Extraction, transport, burnt off unrifinables, waste, boil off, refining, warming or cooling for pumping, loading, transport, boil off during sea passage, unloading, pumping, truck transport, pumping to final storage, evaporation in tank (petrol in hot weather) etc. All energy intensive processes. A few criminally dirty.
And yeah, good luck on finding accurate figures as these are considered precious insider information, that can give critical bargaining situational awareness.
Comparing apples to apples IC to electric is basically impossible beyond general figures.

One can not get accurate numbers as each oil filed produces varying amounts of hydrocarbon chains.  Gas is just one the many products for crude.  Over 100 years ago gas was a waste products and was dumped into streams to get rid of it.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 13, 2018, 05:59:12 pm
You can also prove this by looking at CO2 emissions and then you'll see a downsized ICE will have lower CO2 emissions compared to power plant + EV.
Compare modern to modern, with a modern coal plant this simply isn't true.
Numbers? And please no efficiency numbers which came out of a dark hole. Only the CO2 emissions count. Google (results) tells me that electricity made by burning coal produces between 900 to 1200 grams of CO2 per kWh which puts an EV between 225 to 300 gr of CO2 per km.
In turn I simplify the argument for the other side;
To get 1kilo of Fuel to a petrol station, it takes anything from 2kg (North Sea Brent) to over 5kg (tar sands) of fuel to get it there: Extraction, transport, burnt off unrifinables, waste, boil off, refining, warming or cooling for pumping, loading, transport, boil off during sea passage, unloading, pumping, truck transport, pumping to final storage, evaporation in tank (petrol in hot weather) etc. All energy intensive processes. A few criminally dirty.
And yeah, good luck on finding accurate figures as these are considered precious insider information, that can give critical bargaining situational awareness.
Comparing apples to apples IC to electric is basically impossible beyond general figures.

One can not get accurate numbers as each oil filed produces varying amounts of hydrocarbon chains.  Gas is just one the many products for crude.  Over 100 years ago gas was a waste products and was dumped into streams to get rid of it.
That’s why we must focus on the last link, the actual vehicle.
You have no idea if electricity is from offshore wind or a lignite plant, much the same way your petrol could be from light crude or tar sands.
I humbly suggest we focus this discussion from distribution down (HGV tankers for fuel, high tension cables for electric), otherwise this will go nowhere.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 06:10:54 pm
That’s why we must focus on the last link, the actual vehicle.
You have no idea if electricity is from offshore wind or a lignite plant, much the same way your petrol could be from light crude or tar sands.
I humbly suggest we focus this discussion from distribution down (HGV tankers for fuel, high tension cables for electric), otherwise this will go nowhere.
Agreed otherwise you can have endless discussions on mining materials for batteries as well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 13, 2018, 06:15:25 pm
Quote
lets do it again, latest Golf GTI has 125+ g/km CO2
That's not true. That is where the auto industry is lying about CO2 with their biased test cycles and legal loopholes permitting all kinds of cheating on "official fuel consumption"

Let's take some real world numbers from real world people who drive on really drive on the streets and record their mileage:
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=2&fuelsort=6&constyear_s=2017&powerunit=2 (https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=2&fuelsort=6&constyear_s=2017&powerunit=2)
You can see that the latest golf in gasoline version consumes in average 7.06 l/100km. Facts.

Incidentally, you also can see that a 2004 golf has  7,55 l/100km
a 1984 golf is at 8,21 l/100km in real world use
So the efficiency of engines are better, but the cars are heavier, wider, taller and longer, so the fuel consumption is not much better than 20-30 years ago, despite the lies of the auto industry.

Now    7,06 l/100km gives off  16,58 kg of CO2 / 100km   -> 165g/km for the Wv Golf


Now for the powerplant, taking the same gasoline as a fuel:
1 liter of gasoline gives about 9.5 kWh of thermal energy. The powerplant is 46% efficient, worst case, the grid losses are 10% -> 1liter of gas -> 3.93 kwh at the consumer.
A typical BEV, the nissan leaf consumes about 163Wh/km
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/33-Nissan/1296-Leaf.html?powerunit=2 (https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/33-Nissan/1296-Leaf.html?powerunit=2)

So that would be 16.3 kWh/100km -> 4.14 l/100km   -> 96 g/km for the Leaf with 100% fossil electricity !

So when you take 100% fossil electricity, and a bad efficiency power plant, the leaf is only 1.7x better than the VW golf gasoline in real world
When factoring in renewable electricity, depending on the country's electricity mix, you can come to much much higher factors.


Funny fact : the e-golf consumes 16.01 kWh/100km, practically the same than the leaf, and allows a direct comparison with the gasoline golf !!!
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=5&powerunit=2 (https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=5&powerunit=2)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 13, 2018, 06:23:41 pm
Quote
Can your provide some credible documentation to support your claims.  Are you sure that's not for carbonator cars?   It's my understanding with modern engines which are computer controlled are always burning the fuel with nearly 100% efficiency. 
Burning fuel happens with nearly 100% efficiency.
But extracting the mechanical energy from the thermal energy you get from burning is where the bad 10-40% efficiency lies.

In my example of the golf vs leaf, if you take a 85% efficiency for the BEV, you can retro-calculate the ICE efficiency, and it's in the region of 20%,  which is very very good for an ICE:
You need 16.3 kWh*0.85 = 13.855 kw/h of mechanical energy
For that, in the ICE, you burn 7.05 l of gas : 7.05*9.5 = 66.975 kWh of thermal energy from the fuel burned
13.855/66.975 ->  approx 20,7% average efficiency of the Golf powertrain
Now that's best case. I doubt modern BEVs do only 85%
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 06:25:20 pm
Funny fact : the e-golf consumes 16.01 kWh/100km, practically the same than the leaf, and allows a direct comparison with the gasoline golf !!!
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=5&powerunit=2 (https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/overview/50-Volkswagen/452-Golf.html?fueltype=5&powerunit=2)
The problem is that you can't use that website to compare cars because the circumstances are different. 16kWh/100km is less than the official EPA rating which means people are using these cars as electric shopping carts while other people use their gasoline powered cars to drive 160km/h on the highway.

If you want to make a true comparison between cars then the only right way is to use the EPA ratings because these where obtained from real driving circumstances applied equally to each car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 13, 2018, 06:28:00 pm
EPA ratings are very very very biased. The're wrong because of the loopholes build in the tests.
And BEVs are used as normal cars here in Europe.
An example of one user :
https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/detail/848140.html (https://www.spritmonitor.de/en/detail/848140.html)
He does 1/3 motorway with the leaf, yet achieves the same mileage.
Electric cars just work better and cheaper than ICEs today. it ain't no shopping cart any more.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 13, 2018, 06:36:54 pm
You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?

2/3 of the world population do not live in an industrial nation. They are facing other problems. They don't think about cars, they think about food and a better life.

You need to watch the videos world health physician Hans Rosling and Bill Gates created about the 2/3’s of the world you think do not care about cars.  Cars would bring them clean drinking water, food, and the opportunity for a better life.  I would encourage you to lean about those people as you drive around in your electric car.  Why can’t those people have cars too?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 13, 2018, 06:41:13 pm
Quote
Cars would bring them clean drinking water, food, and the opportunity for a better life.
Drinking water is usually carried in pipes.
Food is carried on trucks.
The opportunity for a better life starts with a bicycle for them usually.
Ain't no cars in that model.
The first use of cars happens usually with shared taxis replacing missing busses in a big part of the world.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 06:46:42 pm
EPA ratings are very very very biased. The're wrong because of the loopholes build in the tests.
The (US based) EPA is not using NEDC tests!
The EPA ratings are based on several real human drivers going through several real life driving scenarios. This is completely different compared to the lab tests the NEDC is using (which can be tricked and are completely bogus). For example: the Tesla model S achieves a much higher range according to the NEDC driving cycle than Tesla specifies (and even that number is optimistic).

Again: you can't compare cars by cherry picking numbers. The EPA test for cars has been designed to give people solid numbers to compare the fuel consumption.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 13, 2018, 07:03:59 pm
it's not cherrypicking. it's real life average use over hundreds of normal people. Very different. Hard facts.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 13, 2018, 07:10:16 pm
The EPA ratings are based on several real human drivers going through several real life driving scenarios. This is completely different compared to the lab tests the NEDC is using
https://greentransportation.info/ev-charging/range-confidence/chap5-ev-range/epa-estimates.html
Quote
What’s shown here is the City cycle. The total test time is 1874 seconds (31 minutes), covering a distance of 11 miles at an average speed of 21 miles per hour, and a maximum 56 miles/hr speed. The test is not performed on a road, but in a lab with the car strapped to a dynamometer.
Yeah 30 minutes on a dynamometer. No Braking, no heater, A/C, radio, lights, no power steering needed, idealized Cv.....
So much for real driving.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 07:20:00 pm
The EPA ratings are based on several real human drivers going through several real life driving scenarios. This is completely different compared to the lab tests the NEDC is using
https://greentransportation.info/ev-charging/range-confidence/chap5-ev-range/epa-estimates.html
Quote
What’s shown here is the City cycle. The total test time is 1874 seconds (31 minutes), covering a distance of 11 miles at an average speed of 21 miles per hour, and a maximum 56 miles/hr speed. The test is not performed on a road, but in a lab with the car strapped to a dynamometer.
Yeah 30 minutes on a dynamometer. No Braking, no heater, A/C, radio, lights, no power steering needed, idealized Cv.....
So much for real driving.
I was under the impression that the EPA used real drivers. I clearly recall having read that somewhere on their website. Maybe they have used real drivers to validate the test cycle. Have to look that up...
Still my point remains: you can only do a meaningfull comparison using similar scenarios.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 13, 2018, 07:41:58 pm
So while everyone is arguing over the next great thing, I'll drive my electric car, powered by a utility that is 90% hydro-electric. Not everyone has that option, but given I do, it seems like a good plan.

You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?

Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world. People can get take them on the underground so it doesn't matter if they have a mile of travel at each end, they just scoot. It also helps that in the last two years they've added a cycle lane to most of the roads around town.

I'll be getting one soon (hopefully!). I'm just selling some stuff on eBay to pay for one. :-)

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 07:47:28 pm
Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world. People can get take them on the underground so it doesn't matter if they have a mile of travel at each end, they just scoot. It also helps that in the last two years they've added a cycle lane to most of the roads around town.
That is no surprise because electric scooters make sense. But maybe you are referring to foldable electrical bycicles because a scooter is large and heavy (>100kg) which would make it hard to bring into an underground station.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 13, 2018, 08:01:10 pm
Yep, it's probably more realistic than NEDC or EU cycles, but it's nearly impossible to get reproducible results on a real road.
Anyway, let's take the comparison LEAF/Golf based on EPA:

According to EPA, the leaf gets 112 MPGe. An electric gallon, what a strage unit this is :)
let's see what that is :
Quote
A gallon of gas is considered equal to about 33.7 kWh of battery power
That matches closely the 9.5 kWh/l thermal energy of burning gas it seems

That converts to 112 miles/33.7 kWh -> 180.2km/33.7kWh -> 187 wh/km or 18.7 kWh/100km  EPA,      we had in real driving average 16.3 kWh/100km ->  EPA is +14%

Let's take the same for the golf :

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-volkswagen-golf-in-depth-model-review-2018-volkswagen-golf-fuel-economy-review-car-and-driver-page-3 (https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-volkswagen-golf-in-depth-model-review-2018-volkswagen-golf-fuel-economy-review-car-and-driver-page-3)

28 mpg combined -> 8.4 l/100km EPA   we had in real driving average 7.06 l/100km -> EPA is +19%

So the EPA mileage is quite realistic compared to real life, even 14-19% worse :)
But still, the BEV is at least factor 2x better than the ICE, on both scales.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 13, 2018, 08:01:42 pm
Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world. People can get take them on the underground so it doesn't matter if they have a mile of travel at each end, they just scoot. It also helps that in the last two years they've added a cycle lane to most of the roads around town.
That is no surprise because electric scooters make sense. But maybe you are referring to foldable electrical bycicles because a scooter is large and heavy (>100kg) which would make it hard to bring into an underground station.

I'm talking about these things:

(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=432071;image)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 08:27:37 pm
Yep, it's probably more realistic than NEDC or EU cycles, but it's nearly impossible to get reproducible results on a real road.
Anyway, let's take the comparison LEAF/Golf based on EPA:

According to EPA, the leaf gets 112 MPGe. An electric gallon, what a strage unit this is :)
let's see what that is :
The MPGe is some kind of fantasy unit based on the average US car fuel consumption (which is high). Needless to say it has no meaning at all from a scientific point of view.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 13, 2018, 09:38:29 pm
My ICE can get 100 MPG every day of the week.  And not only that I can get my ICE car to move without using any gas.  It's got to be true because I'm saying so and it's on the Internet, right?  And I can make the same modification to your car.  Just meet me at the top of a mountain and I will prove to you it's possible.

Preposterous!  :palm: :palm: :palm:

We can even do it with your car.  Just meet me at the top of one of the mountains where I live and I will show you.  THe entire way dawn your car will get over 100 mpg.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on May 13, 2018, 09:40:32 pm
Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the
Where is that?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on May 13, 2018, 10:15:03 pm
The MPGe is some kind of fantasy unit based on the average US car fuel consumption (which is high). Needless to say it has no meaning at all from a scientific point of view.
A gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 33.41kWh purely based on the energy contained in it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_gallon_equivalent
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 13, 2018, 10:29:50 pm
The MPGe is some kind of fantasy unit based on the average US car fuel consumption (which is high). Needless to say it has no meaning at all from a scientific point of view.
A gallon of gasoline is equivalent to 33.41kWh purely based on the energy contained in it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_gallon_equivalent
That is the wrong article. The formula is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Conversion_to_MPGe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Conversion_to_MPGe) which boils down to using the average fuel consumption for all cars which in the US is particulary bad. MPGe has been invented to make EVs look better but it still is a fantasy unit.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 13, 2018, 11:09:07 pm
Quote
Cars would bring them clean drinking water, food, and the opportunity for a better life.
Drinking water is usually carried in pipes.
Food is carried on trucks.
The opportunity for a better life starts with a bicycle for them usually.
Ain't no cars in that model.
The first use of cars happens usually with shared taxis replacing missing busses in a big part of the world.

Dude you've got a lot of learning to do.  I live here in California and you know what's coming out of some people's water pipes, nothing.  We are in a drought.  And in Flint MI, what's coming out of their pipes has elevated lead levels.  These people do no own tanker trucks they use their car to get water.

Outside the US there are many places were people liver where their are no pipes, they use buckets and if they have a car they use that.
Food might be carried in trucks were you live....  But that's not the case elsewhere.  In Africa food is carried on people's heads, on bicycles, scooters and if they have on a car.

Not everyone is as lucky or as privileged as you are. 

There is a car in the bicycle model.  The progression is foot, bicycle, scooter, car. 

Man open your eyes and expand your brain beyond the small area where you live.

Take a look at Bill Gates and family trip to Africa.  They lived with the locals.
Then take a look at Hans Rosling's GAP minder videos to learn about the rest of the world.




 


 

 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 13, 2018, 11:14:49 pm
So while everyone is arguing over the next great thing, I'll drive my electric car, powered by a utility that is 90% hydro-electric. Not everyone has that option, but given I do, it seems like a good plan.

You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?

Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world. People can get take them on the underground so it doesn't matter if they have a mile of travel at each end, they just scoot. It also helps that in the last two years they've added a cycle lane to most of the roads around town.

I'll be getting one soon (hopefully!). I'm just selling some stuff on eBay to pay for one. :-)

How well does the electric scooter work if you don't have electricity?
Or when it is snowing?
How do you take someone out on a date with an electric scotter?
And what if you have a kids and a spouse.

I think if I pucahsed an electric scooter for my family to use as transporation my spouse would give me an pair of running shoes and tell me to try and keep up.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 13, 2018, 11:27:42 pm
Take a look at Bill Gates and family trip to Africa.  They lived with the locals.
I wouldn't count on Bill gates to tell how people live down the societal ladder....
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 13, 2018, 11:28:17 pm
Take a look at Bill Gates and family trip to Africa.  They lived with the locals.
I wouldn't count on Bill gates to tell how people live down the societal ladder....

And why is that?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on May 14, 2018, 12:22:14 am
That is the wrong article. The formula is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Conversion_to_MPGe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Conversion_to_MPGe) which boils down to using the average fuel consumption for all cars which in the US is particulary bad. MPGe has been invented to make EVs look better but it still is a fantasy unit.
Please explain where the average fuel economy comes to play in the calculation?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 12:23:50 am

I wouldn't count on Bill gates to tell how people live down the societal ladder....

And why is that?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 14, 2018, 03:30:18 am
So while everyone is arguing over the next great thing, I'll drive my electric car, powered by a utility that is 90% hydro-electric. Not everyone has that option, but given I do, it seems like a good plan.

You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?    And where does the other 10% come from?  Would you be okay with driving your car 90% of the time you need it and walking the rest?  Probably not.

There are better transistors than the 2N3904 and better regulators than the 7805 these days as well.

I really don't understand why you appear to be against ANY progress. Has the world left you that jaded? 


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 08:13:44 am
My ICE can get 100 MPG every day of the week.  And not only that I can get my ICE car to move without using any gas.  It's got to be true because I'm saying so and it's on the Internet, right?  And I can make the same modification to your car.  Just meet me at the top of a mountain and I will prove to you it's possible.

Preposterous!  :palm: :palm: :palm:

We can even do it with your car.  Just meet me at the top of one of the mountains where I live and I will show you.  THe entire way dawn your car will get over 100 mpg.

Chieldish argumentation behavior! How old are you?  :palm:

Just responding with a silly answer to the person who responded with a silly solution.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 14, 2018, 08:42:30 am
That is the wrong article. The formula is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Conversion_to_MPGe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Conversion_to_MPGe) which boils down to using the average fuel consumption for all cars which in the US is particulary bad. MPGe has been invented to make EVs look better but it still is a fantasy unit.
Please explain where the average fuel economy comes to play in the calculation?
Read the fomula: All miles travelled divided by all fuel used. That is the average fuel economy.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 14, 2018, 08:47:00 am
And why is that?
Because he has no clue. It's like asking an Eskimo how to survive in the Sahara. He may have visited the place, but can't integrate the culture.
Today, the majority of people on the African continent live in huge cities. They don't live like you think any more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_Africa
They have water in pipes, electrons in wires, cars as everyday shared taxis and as status symbols once they become wealthier, food brought by trucks.
The problems have moved, and are moving very very fast. Infrastructure grows with cities, mostly.
What's lacking is not water, food, or cars. They have plenty of that usually. What's lacking is jobs. Send them some!
Go and look for yourself instead of relying on tales from rich people.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 14, 2018, 01:56:06 pm
Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world
Where is that?

Valencia, Spain.

It's very flat, we have quite a good metro system to get you close to where you're going, parking in the city is a nightmare. These are a good idea.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on May 14, 2018, 02:04:54 pm
Yes good idea, here in Holland you see more people that have to travel >10km for work buying electric bikes.
Below <10km normal bikes remain very popular.
The biggest nightmare however is very old people on fast electric bikes  :scared:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on May 14, 2018, 03:24:22 pm
Read the fomula: All miles travelled divided by all fuel used. That is the average fuel economy.
I interpret that as the total energy used to drive that distance. Which makes sense, although a car that has the option of exclusively using one of several energy sources should have a separate rating for each one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 14, 2018, 04:12:34 pm
Read the fomula: All miles travelled divided by all fuel used. That is the average fuel economy.
I interpret that as the total energy used to drive that distance. Which makes sense, although a car that has the option of exclusively using one of several energy sources should have a separate rating for each one.
The problem with MPGe is that it is an half arsed attempt to create some kind of number for comparison. The problem however is that electricity isn't fuel so the MPGe number is bogus when it comes to what really counts: CO2 emissions. Perhaps the number is also influenced by politics trying to hide the fact that electricity in the US doesn't have to be clean at all and in reality EVs may even cause more polution compared to efficient ICE base cars.

Look at the SO2 (Sulfur dioxide) emissions in the west part of the USA:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=-84.95,25.16,408 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=-84.95,25.16,408)

And how it gets there:
https://www.epa.gov/so2-pollution/sulfur-dioxide-basics#what%20is%20so2 (https://www.epa.gov/so2-pollution/sulfur-dioxide-basics#what%20is%20so2)

The only place worse on earth seems to be China.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 04:34:26 pm
And why is that?
Because he has no clue. It's like asking an Eskimo how to survive in the Sahara. He may have visited the place, but can't integrate the culture.
Today, the majority of people on the African continent live in huge cities. They don't live like you think any more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_Africa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_Africa)
They have water in pipes, electrons in wires, cars as everyday shared taxis and as status symbols once they become wealthier, food brought by trucks.
The problems have moved, and are moving very very fast. Infrastructure grows with cities, mostly.
What's lacking is not water, food, or cars. They have plenty of that usually. What's lacking is jobs. Send them some!
Go and look for yourself instead of relying on tales from rich people.

Just because one lives in a city doesn't mean they have water or electricity.  Do a bit of research instead offering your beliefs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEjdzKNiWos (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEjdzKNiWos)

Tales from this rich turn out to be far more accurate then what you beleive. 
You ask about jobs, why not chickens?  And after these folks get enough chickens they might have your job.





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on May 14, 2018, 04:39:44 pm
The day the oil ends, we are going to have a very bad time. We are living very very well much better than ever before thanks to the fossil fuels.

Now I'm going to drive 15km to my favourite cafetería to have a coffee, and after that when I come back will order some things  from China just because I can, it's cheap, it's easy, and don't want to walk to the shop around the corner. Huh. Unbelievable.

Our sons may not be so lucky...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 14, 2018, 05:53:03 pm
There's no "day oil ends"
it's just going to fade away very very slowly by becoming less and less useful, less economically interesting to use vs alternatives.
For plastics, it will always be used, but as a transport and heating fuel, where the majority ends up today, it'll go down, and the price is gonna be very volatile when demand and supply adjusts each other.

The big question is: how will the governments compensate the loss of transportation fuel taxes ?
http://industry.eiu.com/asset_images/1622440146.gif (http://industry.eiu.com/asset_images/1622440146.gif)
Many countries have over 50% tax on fuel, and that can represent a very significant part of a country's GDP...

That fuel tax is currently not applied on airplane fuel, heating fuel, offroad and agricultural fuel, plastics,...
It'll probably have to partially shift to those other uses of oil.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 14, 2018, 06:08:33 pm
Here's todays doom and gloom report.  You're welcome. ;)

Jack Albert, a systems engineer,  and his colleagues think (http://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-303-jack-albert-unwinding-human-predicament/) that the best case scenario is that the earth could "sustain" 50 million humans living in a civilization comparable to our current one for several hundred more years.  It would need to be centered around 3 population centers, each centered in an area with good hydro electric resources, specifcially, the Pacific NW US, China, Paraguay/Uraguay region.  Once the hydro reservoirs silt up, well then....

He gets a bit hypomanic in the podcast interview linked above, but it's well worth listening to IMO. The video below provides a visual demonstration of the crux of his argument.

It's not an idea many are able or willing to entertain...

Sustainable civilization project (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEqCabuiHJM)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 06:21:36 pm
Here's todays doom and gloom report.  You're welcome. ;)

Jack Albert, a systems engineer,  and his colleagues think (http://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-303-jack-albert-unwinding-human-predicament/) that the best case scenario is that the earth could "sustain" 50 million humans living in a civilization comparable to our current one for several hundred more years.  It would need to be centered around 3 population centers, each centered in an area with good hydro electric resources, specifcially, the Pacific NW US, China, Paraguay/Uraguay region.  Once the hydro reservoirs silt up, well then....

He gets a bit hypomanic in the podcast interview linked above, but it's well worth listening to IMO. The video below provides a visual demonstration of the crux of his argument.

It's not an idea many are able or willing to entertain...



The guy in the video has left out quite a few variables which would dramatically alter the outcome.  The guy isn't even using any historical researched data.

Take a look at some real world data and projections.  Quite a different story.


https://youtu.be/usdJgEwMinM




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 14, 2018, 06:22:57 pm
The Pacific Northwest is just a very small portion of the world we live in.
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy. People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses. Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.

So what's the answer?  Solar, wind and hydro in 30 years will at best exstimates only provide 30% of the electricty we need.  Where's the ohter 70% going to come from?  And was we know solar and wind aren't that greate either as England, United States and Germany all had to burn more fossil fuel due to a period of no wind and clouds.

That just leave fossil fuels and nuclear.  Wiht Next Gen nuclear being the ultimate solution.

Or does anyone have a better idea?  If so, it's not been presented.
A Western European uses about 125kWh per day, when you take into account all their energy requirements - electricity, heating, transport, food production, and the manufacture of all the goods they buy and use. An American uses rather more, and some equally developed places, like HK and Singapore, use about half that. Its a lot of energy to obtain from renewable resources, if the 7+ billion people currently alive are going to aspire to a decent way of life.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 14, 2018, 06:27:57 pm
A decent way of life, or a decadent way of life ?
Europe, US, are in the second part, today.
Those civilisations will fall and fail over time.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 14, 2018, 06:28:36 pm
if the 7+ billion people currently alive are going to aspire to a decent way of life.

If by 'decent' you mean leaving every light and TV set in the house permanently on and the air-con set to "arctic" in summer and "Sahara" in winter.

Most people could use a lot less energy if they gave the slightest damn about it.

(and insulated their homes properly).

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 06:40:41 pm
if the 7+ billion people currently alive are going to aspire to a decent way of life.

If by 'decent' you mean leaving every light and TV set in the house permanently on and the air-con set to "arctic" in summer and "Sahara" in winter.

Most people could use a lot less energy if they gave the slightest damn about it.

(and insulated their homes properly).

For some people, the cost of insulating a home is far more expensive than the cost of the electricity.  That's the case for me here in California.

I think you need to look at some world statistics on electricity usage, conserving will do very little.

I would suggest you watch this video to understand energy usage in the world, past, present and future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sqnptxlCcw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sqnptxlCcw)



   
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 14, 2018, 06:49:29 pm
A Western European uses about 125kWh per day, when you take into account all their energy requirements
True but the sun blasts a multiple of the amount of energy we use every day onto the earth's surface. On (global) average about 160W per square meter each day. What is keeping us from using that is political instability. Not technical inability. And yes, nuclear is also an option which should receive way more funding.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 07:03:56 pm
A Western European uses about 125kWh per day, when you take into account all their energy requirements
True but the sun blasts a multiple of the amount of energy we use every day onto the earth's surface. On (global) average about 160W per square meter each day. What is keeping us from using that is political instability. Not technical inability. And yes, nuclear is also an option which should receive way more funding.

Yes on average about 160W per square meter each day.  But you do realize that if you want food, plants consume quite a bit of that energy.  And if you don't want to live day time in the dark we need some of that energy as visible light.  And let's not forget some of that energy provides us with heat.

So here's the real question.....  How much of that 160W per square meter can we actullay convert to electricty and still have enough to grow food and for warmth?

+1 for Next Gen Nuclear





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 14, 2018, 07:09:00 pm
The guy isn't even using any historical researched data.
Take a look at some real world data and projections.  Quite a different story.

Historical trends hold, until they don't, which inevitably happens. Physics are relatively constant by comparison ... so I'd prefer a counter-argument based on the latter.

I'm not opposed to the "technology will solve it" argument, but in that case we could really do with less climate change alarmism. We're already putting all our hopes on future tech any way, just throw something more it will have to fix on the heap.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 14, 2018, 07:39:54 pm
So here's the real question.....  How much of that 160W per square meter can we actullay convert to electricty and still have enough to grow food and for warmth?
I did the math on that a long time ago and the amount of energy we need world wide is like 1 millionth or even 10 times less than what the sun provides. Another way to prove this in a less scientific way is that if our energy usage was significant compared to what the sun provides we would be heating up the atmosphere ourselves but that isn't happening.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 07:50:34 pm
The guy isn't even using any historical researched data.
Take a look at some real world data and projections.  Quite a different story.

Historical trends hold, until they don't, which inevitably happens. Physics are relatively constant by comparison ... so I'd prefer a counter-argument based on the latter.

I'm not opposed to the "technology will solve it" argument, but in that case we could really do with less climate change alarmism. We're already putting all our hopes on future tech any way, just throw something more it will have to fix on the heap.

So you do realize because of man caused climate change, (and there is no doubt there is climate change and that being caused by man ) glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising, food crops are failing, pests and insects which are normally killed by cold winters are surviving killing source of food.  In the US people in Massachusetts people who have had family houses for hundreds of years are having to move because the sea level has risen and now flooding roads and their homes.  In Florida neighborhoods are regularly flooded. 

But let's just say we take your attitude and do nothing.  Maybe you are right this is a big hoax.  But what if you are wrong and in 20 years we have massive crop failure due to man caused climate change.  Will you be one of the first people to starve to death?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 14, 2018, 08:15:15 pm
and there is no doubt there is climate change and that being caused by man

Factually wrong ;)

Quote
In the US people in Massachusetts people who have had family houses for hundreds of years are having to move because the sea level has risen and now flooding roads and their homes.

They could have seen that coming, sea level rise has as of yet not had much correlation with CO2 emissions. It's rising and it has been rising at a relatively steady pace for over a century regardless of emissions.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on May 14, 2018, 08:53:48 pm
Factually wrong ;)
Wot ?
Yeah. Right.
https://xkcd.com/1732/
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 14, 2018, 09:05:55 pm
Factually wrong ;)
Wot ?
Yeah. Right.
https://xkcd.com/1732/
That is a nice drawing but not definitive proof. According to data from ice drillings we know that high CO2 (and methane) levels occur in short and sharp peaks. However from those ice drillings we also know that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is currently higher than is has been for the past couple of 100,000 years or so. From the earth's perspective global warming isn't a problem. It is just inconvenient for people because some of the land will be flooded and climate changes may require adaption of lifestyle.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 14, 2018, 09:41:58 pm
Wot ?

My response relied on English reading comprehension and common sense, what he said truly is factually wrong.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 09:45:17 pm
and there is no doubt there is climate change and that being caused by man

Factually wrong ;)

Quote
In the US people in Massachusetts people who have had family houses for hundreds of years are having to move because the sea level has risen and now flooding roads and their homes.

They could have seen that coming, sea level rise has as of yet not had much correlation with CO2 emissions. It's rising and it has been rising at a relatively steady pace for over a century regardless of emissions.

Convince me you are correct.  Please provide credible peer reviewed studies to support your claim.

How can one see sea rise change when the house was built several 100 years ago?

Possibly you have not seen the credible peer reviewed study which found a direct correlation with climate change and man's activity.  The research was funded by the Koch Brothers.  This study has been peer reviewed by thousands of scientists who doubted climate change much like you.  Upon reviewing the data, the research methodology, they could they could not find any issues.  In fact, the research was so well done they were convinced that not only climate change is occurring, but there is a direct relationship between man’s activities and climate change. 

The Koch Brothers found it hard to believe, but even they are no convinced that climate change is occurring, and that man’s activities are the cause.  But that’s still not stopping them for being in the petroleum business or creating propaganda for people to read so they can continue in making a profit.  Appears they propaganda is still working.

Please don’t share any non-peer reviewed article as we know they propaganda from the Koch Brothers and have been intentionally made to deceive people and confuse people about climate change.  (Something I’m sure you would not fall for.) 


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 14, 2018, 10:05:15 pm
Convince me you are correct.  Please provide credible peer reviewed studies to support your claim.

Boston tidal gauge (http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/235.php).

Quote
How can one see sea rise change when the house was built several 100 years ago?

At some point some grand pa should observe the fact that the beach is getting closer each year, because it's been happening for a long long time.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on May 14, 2018, 10:50:39 pm
+1 Marco. And science is not about consensus, in other words: 1000 scientists may agree and that proves... nothing, nada, niente, cero. It only takes one other lonely scientist to prove them all wrong. It has happened before... and more than once.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 14, 2018, 11:01:24 pm
Guys, you realize that Doug is just trolling you all?   Every factual statement that's been said (with backup info) he just chants "Fake News" or "Go Nuclear".

In the meantime I'll drive my electric car, which is charged with (almost entirely) hydroelectric power.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 11:03:11 pm
Convince me you are correct.  Please provide credible peer reviewed studies to support your claim.

Boston tidal gauge (http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/235.php).

Quote
How can one see sea rise change when the house was built several 100 years ago?

At some point some grand pa should observe the fact that the beach is getting closer each year, because it's been happening for a long long time.


The data you posted is what convinced some many climate change deniers that climate change is occurring, but you left out the other one which so clearly shows the correlation between man’s activities and climate change.  I thought you were going provide evidence of man not causing climate change. 

Where's the data to show man caused climate change isn't occuring?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 14, 2018, 11:04:15 pm
Guys, you realize that Doug is just trolling you all?   Every factual statement that's been said (with backup info) he just chants "Fake News" or "Go Nuclear".

In the meantime I'll drive my electric car, which is charged with (almost entirely) hydroelectric power.
Are you trolling with hydro and he with nuclear?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 11:06:06 pm
Guys, you realize that Doug is just trolling you all?   Every factual statement that's been said (with backup info) he just chants "Fake News" or "Go Nuclear".

In the meantime I'll drive my electric car, which is charged with (almost entirely) hydroelectric power.
Are you trolling with hydro and he with nuclear?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I think he is.
But the guy is mixing up nuclear with Nex Gen Nuclear.  Too entirely different things.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 14, 2018, 11:12:20 pm
Are you trolling with hydro

No, stating facts. 

(https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/lctrct/rprt/2016cndrnwblpwr/mg/fg06-eng.jpg)
ref: https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/lctrct/rprt/2016cndrnwblpwr/prvnc/bc-eng.html (https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/lctrct/rprt/2016cndrnwblpwr/prvnc/bc-eng.html)

And remember, just because you may not like a fact, it doesn't make it 'fake news'.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 14, 2018, 11:14:23 pm
Are you trolling with hydro

No, stating facts. 

(https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/lctrct/rprt/2016cndrnwblpwr/mg/fg06-eng.jpg)
ref: https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/lctrct/rprt/2016cndrnwblpwr/prvnc/bc-eng.html (https://www.neb-one.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/lctrct/rprt/2016cndrnwblpwr/prvnc/bc-eng.html)

And remember, just because you may not like a fact, it doesn't make it 'fake news'.

Is that for the world?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 15, 2018, 05:45:36 am
and there is no doubt there is climate change and that being caused by man
Factually wrong ;)
Wot ?
Yeah. Right.
https://xkcd.com/1732/

I think he means it's 'wrong' in the most mathematical sense, ie. even if there's only 0.0000000001 of a doubt then that's technically not "no doubt".

At least I hope that's what he means.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 15, 2018, 05:50:38 am
For some people, the cost of insulating a home is far more expensive than the cost of the electricity.  That's the case for me here in California.

But what price Planet Earth?  :popcorn:

Just because something is cheap, available and you can do it, doesn't make it OK.

eg. Plastic containers for single-use items.

I would suggest you watch this video to understand energy usage in the world, past, present and future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sqnptxlCcw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sqnptxlCcw)

I agree with it 100%. This is why I'm in the "tech will save the world" camp.

My argument would include things like "If only the USA would invest in energy instead of military for a couple of years..."

(usually followed by something like "...Americans wouldn't need their military if the controlled the energy production of the world." - see Asimov's "Foundation" books for details. No politician would risk turning off the washing machines of the world.)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 15, 2018, 06:04:00 am
For some people, the cost of insulating a home is far more expensive than the cost of the electricity.  That's the case for me here in California.

But what price Planet Earth?  :popcorn:

Just because something is cheap, available and you can do it, doesn't make it OK.

eg. Plastic containers for single-use items.

Or the bunring of Coal...  The burning of coal has released so much mercury into our enviroment and ocens we can't eat the fish.  And the burning of colar releases tons of radioactive isotopes into our atmosphere every year. 

And now becase of man caused climate chnage the permafrost is melting which is releasing a large amount of mercury. 



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 15, 2018, 06:09:20 am
and there is no doubt there is climate change and that being caused by man
Factually wrong ;)
Wot ?
Yeah. Right.
https://xkcd.com/1732/

I think he means it's 'wrong' in the most mathematical sense, ie. even if there's only 0.0000000001 of a doubt then that's technically not "no doubt".

At least I hope that's what he means.

But there is no doubt about man cuased climate change unless you beleive the propoganda being created by the Koch Brothers.  As was previoulsy posted the graph matches shows the climate chnages is releated to man's activities.



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 15, 2018, 06:14:48 am
Or the bunring of Coal...  The burning of coal has released so much mercury into our enviroment and ocens we can't eat the fish.  And the burning of colar releases tons of radioactive isotopes into our atmosphere every year. 

Yep. This alone should be enough reason to stop using coal.

Unfortunately the climate denial movement has found what to focus on and that never gets mentioned in mainstream thinking.

But there is no doubt about man cuased climate change unless you beleive the propoganda being created by the Koch Brothers.  As was previoulsy posted the graph matches shows the climate chnages is releated to man's activities.

Also this:  https://www.google.com/search?q=climate+change+denial+funding (https://www.google.com/search?q=climate+change+denial+funding)

Bottom line: Anybody who uses the "it hasn't been proved!" argument is falling for the exact same system as the "smoking hasn't been proved to cause cancer" system. There's a whole bunch of people out there working to seed that argument, put articles on the Internet, etc.

To any intelligent person they sound like the "evolution is only a theory" crowd, ie. like idiots.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on May 15, 2018, 06:45:37 am
The question remains what can we do about it?
Are you willing to no longer use any form of fossil fuel?
Are you willing to stop using half of your electric equipment?
Are you willing to stop eating more than 25g of meat a day?

The only hope we have is to soon find a clean form of energy that can be used everywhere on the planet.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 15, 2018, 07:03:24 am
The question remains what can we do about it?

Realistically? As a man in the street? Not much. 

You can try to use less at a personal level but at best it will only make the planet last 5-10% longer - that's not a win. :(

Any change has to come from above (laws). Good luck with that, the people have spoken and they want Trump to lead them and put creationists in charge of education.

The planet's only real chance is technology. Underfunded, undervalued, lobbied against, technology.

My prediction: The exact same nerdy scientists who are currently "wrong" about climate change will be the ones called to fix the planet (via. geoengineering) when warming gets too bad to be denied by the politicians.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on May 15, 2018, 07:09:41 am
Cutting down on direct use of fossil fuels is easy at an individual level. All of the electricity I use is generated by some renewable source, most of it off site wind but I also have solar power right at home. I drive a hybrid so I'm already doing better than average, planning to upgrade to a plug in hybrid or even all electric. (They really should require all new cars to get at least 35 MPG highway, which is easily achieved without even resorting to hybrid technology.)

Cut down on meat and/or pick a more sustainable diet? That's an easy first step which also brings health benefits. Basically no up front investment and with smart choices, actually cheaper than the typical American diet.

We should be planting more trees to offset CO2 emissions because it's easy, but that does nothing for all the other downsides of fossil fuels.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 15, 2018, 07:13:54 am
Cutting down on direct use of fossil fuels is easy at an individual level.

True, but it's just a drop in the ocean as a percentage of world usage.

(and at least half the population will just say, "that leaves more for me!!")
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on May 15, 2018, 08:51:29 am
That is the biggest problem, getting used to more/plenty is easy.
Cutting back and getting used to less/shortage is hard.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on May 15, 2018, 09:41:31 am
Just enjoy all the goodness of fossil fuels while they last.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 15, 2018, 01:16:46 pm
The only solution to resource depletion (ignoring for a moment whether low CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is a valuable resource) is WW3 or a global pandemic.

A pandemic resulting in mass infertility being the best case scenario.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 15, 2018, 03:01:57 pm
A pandemic resulting in mass infertility being the best case scenario.
That pandemic is already on it's way. As others wrote before the increase in living standards automatically means people have way less children. It is already predicted that there will be a decline in population at some point. In some countries this is already happening.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 15, 2018, 03:46:39 pm
That is the biggest problem, getting used to more/plenty is easy.
Cutting back and getting used to less/shortage is hard.

Any solution that relies on 'educating' people is doomed to failure.

It is already predicted that there will be a decline in population at some point. In some countries this is already happening.

That probably won't reduce the number of plastic containers being discarded though.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 15, 2018, 04:38:27 pm
It is already predicted that there will be a decline in population at some point. In some countries this is already happening.
That probably won't reduce the number of plastic containers being discarded though.
No, but it seems there are plans to ban plastic packaging in the EU though. I wonder how that works out because without plastic many types of food cannot be preserved that well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 15, 2018, 05:31:47 pm
That pandemic is already on it's way.

Way too slow. By the time Africa empties through replacement migration to Europe we'll have mined everything to exhaustion absent global consumption collapse.

Demographers were wildly wrong about African population growth before (http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/trends/WorldPop2300final.pdf). They are much like climate scientists in that regard, the acceleration/deceleration is always a couple years in the future.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 15, 2018, 07:03:24 pm
Or the bunring of Coal...  The burning of coal has released so much mercury into our enviroment and ocens we can't eat the fish.  And the burning of colar releases tons of radioactive isotopes into our atmosphere every year. 

Yep. This alone should be enough reason to stop using coal.

Unfortunately the climate denial movement has found what to focus on and that never gets mentioned in mainstream thinking.

But there is no doubt about man cuased climate change unless you beleive the propoganda being created by the Koch Brothers.  As was previoulsy posted the graph matches shows the climate chnages is releated to man's activities.

Also this:  https://www.google.com/search?q=climate+change+denial+funding (https://www.google.com/search?q=climate+change+denial+funding)

Bottom line: Anybody who uses the "it hasn't been proved!" argument is falling for the exact same system as the "smoking hasn't been proved to cause cancer" system. There's a whole bunch of people out there working to seed that argument, put articles on the Internet, etc.

To any intelligent person they sound like the "evolution is only a theory" crowd, ie. like idiots.

What's going is a gross misuse of the definition of words.  Anyone who has taken a science class knows in science you don't prove anything and should have learned something called "Scientific Method".  Most people, press, politicians and those who did not pass a science class are using the legal definition of words and incorrectly using them in a scientific context. 
Gravity has never been proven either, it's still a theory.  That's why today it's still called the "Theory of Gravity".

Sad that people don't seem to learn this in school and that advertisers use prey upon the ignorance of people to trick them.

It's much more than people being seeded to spread fake and false information.  There is an entire industry that’s doing this.  The tobacco companies were famously told, everyday we can cause confusion about our product is one more day we can make another million in profits.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 15, 2018, 07:20:05 pm
The question remains what can we do about it?
Are you willing to no longer use any form of fossil fuel?
Are you willing to stop using half of your electric equipment?
Are you willing to stop eating more than 25g of meat a day?

The only hope we have is to soon find a clean form of energy that can be used everywhere on the planet.

And you forgot to ask if people would be willing to stop releasing CO2 when they breath. 

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 15, 2018, 07:56:50 pm
And you forgot to ask if people would be willing to stop releasing CO2 when they breath.
People don't run on oil!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 15, 2018, 08:11:59 pm
And you forgot to ask if people would be willing to stop releasing CO2 when they breath.
People don't run on oil!
[/quote

There are so many ways to interpet your statement.
They my not run on oil, but I think they can walk with it.  Don't you consume oil as part of your diet?

CO2 is the end prodcut of combustion and resperation.  Don't mater if it's produced as a result of burning fossil fules or respiaration it's still CO2 and both are man made.



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on May 16, 2018, 12:41:15 am
The point is that the CO2 came from the air to begin with, so there's no net increase. That also applies to biofuels, which can replace fossil fuels where electric power is not a viable option.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 16, 2018, 01:05:14 am
The point is that the CO2 came from the air to begin with, so there's no net increase. That also applies to biofuels, which can replace fossil fuels where electric power is not a viable option.

Depends on what you mean "to begin with"?  It took quite a while for this planet to be able to support human life.  Last time CO2 levels where this high on Earth humans weren’t around.

Looking at the evidence and data that's been collected the only scenario that explains the levels of CO2 in our atmosphere is man's burning of burnable materials....  specialty trees and fossil fuel.  If one looks at the ice core data and the data Mauna Loa one can see when man changes fuel sources.  From trees, to oil, to coal and other fossil fuels.

It takes millions of years for the excess to sequester the carbon as hydrocarbons to make this planet habitable for humans.  We are releasing those hydrocarbons so quickly our planet doesn’t have enough time to sequester it.  I guess we could wait another millions years but I only expect to live another 50 years or so. 








Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 16, 2018, 08:35:58 am
In the news: Tesla is working on grid balancing systems. They've just installed an 18.2MW electricity storage plant in Belgium and it really doesn't take up an awful lot of space for what it does, IMHO.

(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=433940;image)

Tesla blurb video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVHQFrGzThg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVHQFrGzThg)

There's no figures on battery life expectancy or maintenance costs, obviously.

Smoothing out the peaks in demand will be a big part of making renewable energy practical.

I think this can make a big difference even without renewables, the Australians are reporting theirs as a huge success (https://www.ecowatch.com/tesla-australia-battery-2568719032.html). Expect to see a lot more of them when utility companies start to measure how much difference it can really make to the grids.

(Jeez, I sound like a Tesla salesman)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 16, 2018, 01:44:39 pm
Was to be expected, the low/negative electricity prizes present an arbitrage opportunity and the pumped hydro is no longer sufficient to gobble up most of the profits.

Shame these market forces don't really incentivize the development of long term storage.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 16, 2018, 03:17:30 pm
Nice experiment, let's hope it's going to work.  We should be trying more of these things to see what's going to work and what's not.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on May 20, 2018, 07:09:14 am
Shame these market forces don't really incentivize the development of long term storage.

This is also why when you attempt to get a solar system installed at home they push you to grid tie setups.  So while it's sunny and you are out at work all day you sell electricity back to the grid for less than 1/10th of what it's worth.  Then when you come home in the evening you buy electricity at full rate.  Makes perfect business sense although next to useless for the consumer generating the power (even though that's contradiction).  They get the side effect of "being green" and can feel all warm and fuzzy while being milked by the energy companies.

A bit of decent investment and some decent sized batteries and you can capture that energy while you are out at work and run off the stored power through the night.  Of course that makes no money for "the man" and thus it won't be aggressively marketed and I wouldn't be surprised if we found it becoming more difficult to do, through legislation and taxation.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 20, 2018, 08:09:54 am
A bit of decent investment and some decent sized batteries and you can capture that energy while you are out at work and run off the stored power through the night.  Of course that makes no money for "the man" and thus it won't be aggressively marketed and I wouldn't be surprised if we found it becoming more difficult to do, through legislation and taxation.

They already did it here in Spain: http://www.arbo-es.com/2018/05/08/spains-sun-tax/ (http://www.arbo-es.com/2018/05/08/spains-sun-tax/)

In Spain the power companies are mostly owned by politicians (so they can hike the prices whenever they need a new palace). They put a law in place that makes it very difficult to install domestic solar (in the sense of recovering the cost of the panels) and actually making some types of installation illegal.

Looks like Europe is finally forcing them to kill it though.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 20, 2018, 09:52:00 am
The situation in Spain is absurd...
They have a virtual dessert at about 800m altitude in the middle of the country where they could do giant solar and undercut anything in the rest of Europe, but no, they actually out laws in place making this impossible!
I love Spain, but the political/ business alliance at the top (PP, Endesa, Repsol etc) a ruining the future of the country.

Meanwhile Morocco is filling the void and putting infrastructure online... Interconnect cables are being prepared as I type this...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 20, 2018, 11:01:23 am
The situation in Spain is absurd...
They have a virtual dessert at about 800m altitude in the middle of the country where they could do giant solar and undercut anything in the rest of Europe, but no, they actually out laws in place making this impossible!
I love Spain, but the political/ business alliance at the top (PP, Endesa, Repsol etc) a ruining the future of the country.

Meanwhile Morocco is filling the void and putting infrastructure online... Interconnect cables are being prepared as I type this...
Do they give reasons for outlawing solar in the desert?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 20, 2018, 12:45:01 pm

This is also why when you attempt to get a solar system installed at home they push you to grid tie setups.  So while it's sunny and you are out at work all day you sell electricity back to the grid for less than 1/10th of what it's worth.  Then when you come home in the evening you buy electricity at full rate.

Not true in California.  Here in California the power company PG&E pays market rate for solar/wind produced electricity form residential customers.  So when rates are high during the day For every one kWhr sold to the power compact during the day the customer can get back 3.5 kWhrs.

It is the solar companies who are ripping off the public.

When they sell solar systems to residential customers they don’t factor in this buy sell factor or the customer’s usage patterns and wind up selling a system where customers are giving hundreds if not thousands of dollars of electricty to the power company for free every year.  (At the end of the year, any excess electricity credit dollars are given to the power company for free.)

   
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: SiliconWizard on May 20, 2018, 07:15:35 pm
This is also why when you attempt to get a solar system installed at home they push you to grid tie setups.  So while it's sunny and you are out at work all day you sell electricity back to the grid for less than 1/10th of what it's worth.  Then when you come home in the evening you buy electricity at full rate.  Makes perfect business sense although next to useless for the consumer generating the power (even though that's contradiction).  They get the side effect of "being green" and can feel all warm and fuzzy while being milked by the energy companies.

Yes. This is called being ripped off. It actually gives energy providers free access to the roof of your own property, while giving you back mere crumbles.

A bit of decent investment and some decent sized batteries and you can capture that energy while you are out at work and run off the stored power through the night.  Of course that makes no money for "the man" and thus it won't be aggressively marketed and I wouldn't be surprised if we found it becoming more difficult to do, through legislation and taxation.

Absolutely. It's most likely going to be legally banned in most developed countries in a matter of maybe 10 years or less.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 20, 2018, 08:10:09 pm
The situation in Spain is absurd...
They have a virtual dessert at about 800m altitude in the middle of the country where they could do giant solar and undercut anything in the rest of Europe, but no, they actually out laws in place making this impossible!
I love Spain, but the political/ business alliance at the top (PP, Endesa, Repsol etc) a ruining the future of the country.

Meanwhile Morocco is filling the void and putting infrastructure online... Interconnect cables are being prepared as I type this...
Do they give reasons for outlawing solar in the desert?
Not really, apart from stuffing their pockets.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 20, 2018, 08:47:27 pm
Do they give reasons for outlawing solar in the desert?

The Spanish government? They don't need no steeenkin' reasons.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 20, 2018, 10:21:21 pm
The situation in Spain is absurd...
They have a virtual dessert at about 800m altitude in the middle of the country where they could do giant solar and undercut anything in the rest of Europe, but no, they actually out laws in place making this impossible!
I'm not quite sure if there really is space in Spain for large scale solar. Areas which look like a desert at first glance often have an agricultural purpose or are populated by people. Just zoom in on Spain using Google maps and you'll see that there is farming going on everywhere. You can do the same for north Africa. You have to travel 1000 km or more from the coast before the patches of farm land end.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 20, 2018, 10:38:06 pm
The situation in Spain is absurd...
They have a virtual dessert at about 800m altitude in the middle of the country where they could do giant solar and undercut anything in the rest of Europe, but no, they actually out laws in place making this impossible!
I'm not quite sure if there really is space in Spain for large scale solar. Areas which look like a desert at first glance often have an agricultural purpose or are populated by people. Just zoom in on Spain using Google maps and you'll see that there is farming going on everywhere. You can do the same for north Africa. You have to travel 1000 km or more from the coast before the patches of farm land end.

I'm pretty sure they could find a place in Almeria province.

(it's where they filmed a Fistful of Dollars, etc. - very dry there, not much grows)

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on May 21, 2018, 07:06:49 am
It is the solar companies who are ripping off the public.

When they sell solar systems to residential customers they don’t factor in this buy sell factor or the customer’s usage patterns and wind up selling a system where customers are giving hundreds if not thousands of dollars of electricty to the power company for free every year.  (At the end of the year, any excess electricity credit dollars are given to the power company for free.)

Yes, I side stepped this aspect.  Although I believe it is in decline as 3k+ home systems are becoming affordable for personal investment now.

The market here was flooded with companies whose model went like this:

You present a small deposit, a thousand pounds or so.
They install several thousand pounds worth of panels and GTI in your home.
You can use what you like.
The excess electricity when you are out all day is sold back to the grid at wholesale price.
The money for the electricity sold goes to the investment company/bank bank rolling the solar installer.

The trouble is the contracts involve horrid clauses meaning you never own the panels, the investment company has a long term 10-20 year lease on your roof.  You can't sell your house without lengthy proceedings to transfer the lease or terminating the lease early with fines AND pay to have the panels removed and returned ... or more fines.

The government was actively supporting these companies and helping to fund them.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 21, 2018, 04:59:18 pm

The government was actively supporting these companies and helping to fund them.

Is Solar City/Tesla not in the UK? 


Here in the US if one places solar on their home, the tax p[ayers pay 30% of the cost.  Solar City, I guess they are now Tesla charge $1,000 to $1,300 per 300 watt panel installed.  Their sales people are on paid on commission, so the more panels they "think" you need, the more panels the more they will sell you.

From what I understnad our power comany PG&E is the first in the US to offer Time Of Use billing meaning you pay anywehre from $0.10 kWhr to $0.85 kWhr depending on what time you purchase the kWhr.  Coca-Cola tried selling bottles of Coke based on temerature.  On hot days the prices would increase.  That's didn't work for them.

The slimy trick Tesal and the ohter solar panel installers are doing is keeping customers in the dark about solar so they can make more money.  It's discrasefull what these solar comanies are doing to make money which at the same time is giving solar a bad reputation.  Residential customers where I have can be on one of nine rate plans.

When the solar sales folks "sell" solar to folks they compare the worst price folks have to pay for electricty (before solar) and compare ot it the best rate they can get making solar appear to be a much better value than it actually is.

I have a rate plan comparer app.  Is shows me how much I would pay each month for the different rate plans.  For a $200 a month bill, I'm saving $60 per month just be selecting a different rate plan without even installing solar.  The solar rip-off companies then use theis $65 savings and add it to the $5 or $10 people might be saving by installing solar and then show them what a wonderful deal it is to install solar.  What BS.

Not saying sdar is not good.....  But just look at what the solar companies are doing to make a profit to destory the "good" solar is for us.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on May 22, 2018, 05:43:03 am
The overpricing is the main reason I DIY my solar setup and I suggest others do the same. (The other big reasons are to make it economical to start small and to have a setup I can easily take with me when I move.) I had the vision to do it when I was in college (sadly, batteries and LED bulbs were just too expensive back then - the ripoff $40/month service charge would easily buy a minimalist setup nowadays!) and I made it reality last year. I also got the chance to use my setup to spread the word about DIY solar and show my friends how I use technology to make the world a better place.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: fourtytwo42 on May 22, 2018, 07:09:17 am
The overpricing is the main reason I DIY my solar setup and I suggest others do the same. (The other big reasons are to make it economical to start small and to have a setup I can easily take with me when I move.) I had the vision to do it when I was in college (sadly, batteries and LED bulbs were just too expensive back then - the ripoff $40/month service charge would easily buy a minimalist setup nowadays!) and I made it reality last year. I also got the chance to use my setup to spread the word about DIY solar and show my friends how I use technology to make the world a better place.
Me too, my DIY solar does all my hot water and a little power for the house, although its grid tied I measure and limit what I export to the minimium to avoid wear and tear on my system as I don't get paid for export (consiquence of DIY). This thread seems to have drifted somewhat from cars  :-//
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on May 22, 2018, 11:54:18 am
The overpricing is the main reason I DIY my solar setup and I suggest others do the same. (The other big reasons are to make it economical to start small and to have a setup I can easily take with me when I move.) I had the vision to do it when I was in college (sadly, batteries and LED bulbs were just too expensive back then - the ripoff $40/month service charge would easily buy a minimalist setup nowadays!) and I made it reality last year. I also got the chance to use my setup to spread the word about DIY solar and show my friends how I use technology to make the world a better place.
Me too, my DIY solar does all my hot water and a little power for the house, although its grid tied I measure and limit what I export to the minimium to avoid wear and tear on my system as I don't get paid for export (consiquence of DIY). This thread seems to have drifted somewhat from cars  :-//
Yup, you are right, let’s push them back in line.

“Morris Minor”

That should do it.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 22, 2018, 02:41:57 pm

Yup, you are right, let’s push them back in line.

“Morris Minor”

That should do it.

How? 

I’ve talked to former sales solar sales people and Solar City/Tesla is all about hitting sales numbers.  People are calling solar sales the new “used car” industry.

On the consumer side solar has been made so complex all people are saying is how much money will I save per month if I install solar?   If they here $10 per month on. $200 bill they think it’s a great deal feel they are doing something “good”.

And what Solar City is doing to minorities and people of color is disgusting.  They “sell” them on the idea they will be getting all of their electricty for free from solar while sticking them into a PACE HERO high interest government backed loan.  I’ve talked to some solar companies who only do these PACE HERO sales because they can make more money and the people are easier to dupe.  One of the solar companies has a promo video showing an 85 year old women of color talking about the “free” electricty she is receiving by installing solar.  “Free” is not correct.  She is paying a premium for her electricity because they arranged for her to get a PACE HERO loan.

It’s discraseful what the solar industry is doing to poor people.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Seph.b on May 22, 2018, 04:39:36 pm

Yup, you are right, let’s push them back in line.

“Morris Minor”

That should do it.

How? 

I’ve talked to former sales solar sales people and Solar City/Tesla is all about hitting sales numbers.  People are calling solar sales the new “used car” industry.

On the consumer side solar has been made so complex all people are saying is how much money will I save per month if I install solar?   If they here $10 per month on. $200 bill they think it’s a great deal feel they are doing something “good”.

And what Solar City is doing to minorities and people of color is disgusting.  They “sell” them on the idea they will be getting all of their electricty for free from solar while sticking them into a PACE HERO high interest government backed loan.  I’ve talked to some solar companies who only do these PACE HERO sales because they can make more money and the people are easier to dupe.  One of the solar companies has a promo video showing an 85 year old women of color talking about the “free” electricty she is receiving by installing solar.  “Free” is not correct.  She is paying a premium for her electricity because they arranged for her to get a PACE HERO loan.

It’s discraseful what the solar industry is doing to poor people.

Or magazine subscription salesmen.  I have seen people at a booth in front of the super market trying to sell solar. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 22, 2018, 04:51:16 pm
Sad isn't it.  Who is going to buy a $40,000 solar system from a "guy" standing in front of a supermarket.  I've been told average cost for marketing material is $5,000 per home.  Or out of that $40,000 solar system being installed on someone's home, $5,000 of the $40,000 was spent on marketing.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Seph.b on May 22, 2018, 05:08:08 pm
Sad isn't it.  Who is going to buy a $40,000 solar system from a "guy" standing in front of a supermarket.  I've been told average cost for marketing material is $5,000 per home.  Or out of that $40,000 solar system being installed on someone's home, $5,000 of the $40,000 was spent on marketing.

There are always people talking to them, no idea what their conversion rate is though.

Even if you had a $200 a month power bill that went to zero, it would take 17 years to pay them off with no financing charges. I think they are selling an antidote to liberal guilt, not solar. I have gotten door to door solar salesmen too, and my house is surrounded by very large trees. I get like an hour of sun on my roof a day. I'm all for solar, but it is getting ridiculous.

At the same supermarket I see people offering to raise your electric rate to help spur renewable energy in the region.  This is in the Pacific NW, which already has one of the highest renewable energy share of the market in the world. See other users discussions earlier in this thread for details.   
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on May 22, 2018, 05:23:12 pm
But... knowing the Tories in Britain they will regulate it into building code in such a way that you have little or no option but to pay their (Tory MPs) friends' corporations loads of money to install and maintain it if you want to GTI the over gen, apply for home insurance or to sell your house.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 22, 2018, 05:37:32 pm
Sad isn't it.  Who is going to buy a $40,000 solar system from a "guy" standing in front of a supermarket.  I've been told average cost for marketing material is $5,000 per home.  Or out of that $40,000 solar system being installed on someone's home, $5,000 of the $40,000 was spent on marketing.

There are always people talking to them, no idea what their conversion rate is though.

Even if you had a $200 a month power bill that went to zero, it would take 17 years to pay them off with no financing charges. I think they are selling an antidote to liberal guilt, not solar. I have gotten door to door solar salesmen too, and my house is surrounded by very large trees. I get like an hour of sun on my roof a day. I'm all for solar, but it is getting ridiculous.

At the same supermarket I see people offering to raise your electric rate to help spur renewable energy in the region.  This is in the Pacific NW, which already has one of the highest renewable energy share of the market in the world. See other users discussions earlier in this thread for details.


There was a time when GE was selling refrigators with ice makers to Eskimos in your part of the country.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: fourtytwo42 on May 22, 2018, 06:11:48 pm
But... knowing the Tories in Britain they will regulate it into building code in such a way that you have little or no option but to pay their (Tory MPs) friends' corporations loads of money to install and maintain it if you want to GTI the over gen, apply for home insurance or to sell your house.
Politics and engineering dont mix! We can all try to backstab whatever party we don't like on here but it serves no usefull purpose :)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 22, 2018, 06:41:44 pm
But... knowing the Tories in Britain they will regulate it into building code in such a way that you have little or no option but to pay their (Tory MPs) friends' corporations loads of money to install and maintain it if you want to GTI the over gen, apply for home insurance or to sell your house.
Politics and engineering dont mix! We can all try to backstab whatever party we don't like on here but it serves no usefull purpose :)


No useful purpose?  Sure it does....  When one complains they feel better after they complain.   


Isn't FaceBook a billion dollar company because people are complaining?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 22, 2018, 07:34:39 pm
PACE HERO

Why the fuck is government getting into providing loans with payment being done through property taxes? How does that make any sense at all other than obfuscation of costs and scamming people?

PS. the ONLY way I could ever see this making sense is if you want to do some renovation which can be funded by this, but you're planning to walk away from your mortgage in a couple of years. In literally every other situation it can not possibly make any sense whatsoever. What the hell was Obama thinking supporting this outright evil shit?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on May 22, 2018, 11:09:13 pm
Back to the original topic:

My car getting a charge using our inexpensive and 90% Hydro produced electricity.. It was just under 1/2 'tank', and ended up taking 18kWh @ C$0.0858/kWh, or C$1.54

(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=439162;image)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 22, 2018, 11:28:55 pm
PACE HERO

Why the fuck is government getting into providing loans with payment being done through property taxes? How does that make any sense at all other than obfuscation of costs and scamming people?

PS. the ONLY way I could ever see this making sense is if you want to do some renovation which can be funded by this, but you're planning to walk away from your mortgage in a couple of years. In literally every other situation it can not possibly make any sense whatsoever. What the hell was Obama thinking supporting this outright evil shit?

There's a very simple answer.  You've got a guy who needs money to build rockets and electric cars.  As he flies over the US he's lookng down and seeing rooftops which can be turned into dollars if only he could convince everyone to put solar panels on every rooftop.  How do you do that?  Hire green lobbiests and convince the President to have the governement pay 30%.

But what about all of those poor people who got screwed and went bankrupt with those ridiciouls real estate loans.  Elon knows.....  Have the goverment loan all of these poor uninfomred people money and hide the loan in their proerpty taxes.  This way Elon can look like a hero to the poor.  He's giving them free electrity with solar, right?  What they are hiding is how mich these peopels property taxes increased.



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ez24 on May 22, 2018, 11:45:34 pm
Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world.

Lasts Sunday  I drove down a busy business street and there were at least 3 groups ( 5 to 8 ) of teenagers riding the rental scooters.

It was on the news recently that soon Volvo will stop making gas cars.

California dictators want to outlaw gas cars.

Today there was a commercial on a luxury car (forgot name) and they said their electric (hybrid?) was comparably priced with their other models.


So electric cars will become mainstream faster than we think.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 23, 2018, 12:11:38 am
Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world.

Lasts Sunday  I drove down a busy business street and there were at least 3 groups ( 5 to 8 ) of teenagers riding the rental scooters.

It was on the news recently that soon Volvo will stop making gas cars.

California dictators want to outlaw gas cars.

Today there was a commercial on a luxury car (forgot name) and they said their electric (hybrid?) was comparably priced with their other models.


So electric cars will become mainstream faster than we think.

Keep saying it over and over and it will come true, right?  Or look at the figures.  First what's your defination of mainstream?  If it is less than 1% then we are there.  Of the 17.5 million cars on the road just over half a million are electric.

While you saw an add for one new electric car model, remember VW just pulled the plug on one of their electtic cars.
No net gain here.

Yes Volvo is going for broke.  Could it be they are going broke and this is somehting they are trying to do save face?  If no one buys their electric cars then they can say see, no one want's electric cars.  But if people start buying them other companies might take notice.  Quesiton is will they be a Saab?  Or the next VW in the 60s with their bug?


Stay tueend the furture is always almost here.



Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on May 23, 2018, 12:40:17 am
Hire green lobbiests and convince the President to have the governement pay 30%.

The government isn't paying 30%, the government is helping to hide the trust cost of the loan and is offering its services to scammers to break your legs if you don't pay up. If I just thought it was every day corruption I wouldn't have called it evil.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 23, 2018, 01:00:54 am
Hire green lobbiests and convince the President to have the governement pay 30%.

The government isn't paying 30%, the government is helping to hide the trust cost of the loan and is offering its services to scammers to break your legs if you don't pay up. If I just thought it was every day corruption I wouldn't have called it evil.

Okay on a technicality you are correct.  The government’s money is really the money f the people.  So when government is giving a 30% tax credit it’s really the people' money.   So when the elected officials who give the 30% tax credit to the person of company like Solar City (in the case of a loan or a PACE HERO loans) it is the rich (who can pay for the solar panels) and companies like Solar City who get the thousands of dollars in tax credits.
In the US electric car buyers also get $10,000 in tax credits and cash for buying an electric car.  If $10,000 is not an insensitive to purchase an electric car, how much more money does the public need?


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 23, 2018, 02:50:20 am
In the US electric car buyers also get $10,000 in tax credits and cash for buying an electric car.

No. The tax credit is max $7500 (less if battery is below the minimum size). And no, they do not get any “ cash”.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ez24 on May 23, 2018, 03:50:23 am
The tax credit is max $7500 (less if battery is below the minimum size). And no, they do not get any “ cash”.

If you are in a 15% fed tax bracket (lowest), what is the savings in your pocket?   I think it is 7500 x .15 = $1,125    Still not enough to help the masses, just enough to help the power brokers.   So if I bought one, I would pay $1,125 less in taxes and get audited on why someone in my 15% tax bracket could afford a EC.   :-DD

A 7500 tax credit is not $7500 !

This is NOT a reason to hit the "mainstream".  The matching of price of gas and electric in cars that the masses can buy will then it become mainstream  (not in my lifetime).  I will pay attention next time to the luxury car ad that said it matches their gas cars.  Now I would like to know the prices.





 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 23, 2018, 04:16:22 am
The tax credit is max $7500 (less if battery is below the minimum size). And no, they do not get any “ cash”.

If you are in a 15% fed tax bracket (lowest), what is the savings in your pocket?   I think it is 7500 x .15 = $1,125    Still not enough to help the masses, just enough to help the power brokers.   So if I bought one, I would pay $1,125 less in taxes and get audited on why someone in my 15% tax bracket could afford a EC.   :-DD

A 7500 tax credit is not $7500 !

This is NOT a reason to hit the "mainstream".  The matching of price of gas and electric in cars that the masses can buy will then it become mainstream  (not in my lifetime).  I will pay attention next time to the luxury car ad that said it matches their gas cars.  Now I would like to know the prices.

If you are in a low tax bracket you can still take advantage of the 30% tax credit.  Solar City will lease the PV system and since they are the ones who have now purchased the system they receive the 30% tax credit.  They will then pass along the tax credit in reduced lease payments.  But then with a lease payments tend to be a considerably higher.  Solar City tells everyone they will get the 30% tax credit even with a lease.  What they don't tell you is the leasing payments are at a premium.

With Solar City and others the 7500 tax credit is close to $7500 evern for thouse who have no income.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on May 23, 2018, 04:19:09 am
The tax credit is max $7500 (less if battery is below the minimum size). And no, they do not get any “ cash”.

If you are in a 15% fed tax bracket (lowest), what is the savings in your pocket?   I think it is 7500 x .15 = $1,125    Still not enough to help the masses, just enough to help the power brokers.   So if I bought one, I would pay $1,125 less in taxes and get audited on why someone in my 15% tax bracket could afford a EC.   :-DD

A 7500 tax credit is not $7500 !

This is NOT a reason to hit the "mainstream".  The matching of price of gas and electric in cars that the masses can buy will then it become mainstream  (not in my lifetime).  I will pay attention next time to the luxury car ad that said it matches their gas cars.  Now I would like to know the prices.
A Tax credit means if you owe the government 10,000 in taxes and you get a credit for $7500 then you will owe the government $2500. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 23, 2018, 04:28:48 am
The tax credit is max $7500 (less if battery is below the minimum size). And no, they do not get any “ cash”.

If you are in a 15% fed tax bracket (lowest), what is the savings in your pocket?   I think it is 7500 x .15 = $1,125    Still not enough to help the masses, just enough to help the power brokers.   So if I bought one, I would pay $1,125 less in taxes and get audited on why someone in my 15% tax bracket could afford a EC.   :-DD

A 7500 tax credit is not $7500 !

This is NOT a reason to hit the "mainstream".  The matching of price of gas and electric in cars that the masses can buy will then it become mainstream  (not in my lifetime).  I will pay attention next time to the luxury car ad that said it matches their gas cars.  Now I would like to know the prices.
A Tax credit means if you owe the government 10,000 in taxes and you get a credit for $7500 then you will owe the government $2500.

One only gets the tax crdit if they puchaased a solar system.  If one leases it, there is no tax credit.  If Solar City leases a solar PV system to you, then they not you get the tax credit.  It is Solar City who purcahsed the solar system.

Bue there's no law that prevents Solar City from passing along that "tax credit" to you in the form of a credit on your lease payment.  So even soneone who owes no taxes can receive the tax credit if they lease.  Now in reality Solar City jacks-up the lease payments so it's a terrible deal for the homeowner.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 06:32:54 am
If you are in a 15% fed tax bracket (lowest), what is the savings in your pocket?   I think it is 7500 x .15 = $1,125    Still not enough to help the masses, just enough to help the power brokers.   

That doesn't matter. The point is that electric car makers get to sell some cars and survive to the next generation.

Tesla started by selling overpriced toy cars to very rich people. No ordinary person would ever have owned a roadster.

Here we are a few years later and Tesla is now making $35000 family cars. Still not cheap enough, but we're getting there. Slowly.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 23, 2018, 06:41:40 am
If you are in a 15% fed tax bracket (lowest), what is the savings in your pocket?   I think it is 7500 x .15 = $1,125    Still not enough to help the masses, just enough to help the power brokers.   

That doesn't matter. The point is that electric car makers get to sell some cars and survive to the next generation.

Tesla started by selling overpriced toy cars to very rich people. No ordinary person would ever have owned a roadster.

Here we are a few years later and Tesla is now making $35000 family cars. Still not cheap enough, but we're getting there. Slowly.


Has Tesla made any $35,000 cars yet?  He’s trying, but I don’t think one has beem selicered yet.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 23, 2018, 07:24:53 am
Here we are a few years later and Tesla is now making $35000 family cars. Still not cheap enough, but we're getting there. Slowly.
Has Tesla made any $35,000 cars yet?  He’s trying, but I don’t think one has beem selicered yet.
Tesla is currently avoiding making a $35k car. Elon Musk pretty much said that making the $35k version would bankrupt them, due to the high loss per vehicle, and their already high rate of bleeding cash. Presumably in the next few months they will have to ship a few basic cars, and sell them for $35k, just for publicity purposes. It looks like it will be quite a while before that version ships in volume.

The same thing happened with the Model S. I think they talked of a $55k model at the beginning, with a small battery and minimal features, but only ever shipped a handful of cars in that spec.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: jh15 on May 23, 2018, 07:50:19 am
I like not having to change oil, tweak stuff brake pads, etc. approaching 70, it hurts to do this stuff. My Honda Element is nice, but painful to service. I do it for the quality of work, not cost. in the last decades a just ex-girlfriend, after me keeping her car in excellent shape for users after her friends cars conked out. bought a new toyota.

At her 1000 mile (paid) service, going home the oil light came on. Not being a car girl, she drove it back.  I think they gave her a stupid warranty.

Before that, an audiophile (not audiophool) friend bought a VW rabbit in for first service. The car fell off the lift upside down onto another car. some kind of left/right liting mechanism. crushed roof.

He agreed to let them repair it.... geeeze.

I'm bringing in my Tesla s 2017 into its first checkup next week. $500.00 As far as I know, they check brakes, change the reduction gear fluid, check antifreeze and brake fluid, suspension looseness (probably the same as a Maine inspection), 12 volt battery.

But, we get new cr3020 batteries for our keyfobs and new wipers.

I'm all for  hybrids for econoboxes, but for a luxury car company, you get the same extreme service costs on top of electronics add-ons.

My car is was $69,000 and hope it will last twice as long as an ice car. Aluminium body and stuff, performance brakes, shocks available anywhere.

Any steel underneath like on my Element, I'll spray Fluidfim on it (it's an excrement from sheep).

The performance will stay as new, no wearing gaskets and rings, not dragging around transmission, emission controls, exhaust (I dread the day doing exhaust on my Element. At least only one muffler.

Wait and buy a full electric.
Electric cost is not determinable on our bill lost in dithering if we use clothes dryer, clean electric oven, how long our hot plasma tv is on, dehumidifier in basement, a/c.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 08:36:10 am
Has Tesla made any $35,000 cars yet?  He’s trying, but I don’t think one has beem selicered yet.

I'm not sure.

The way I heard it not many people are ordering the base model anyway. The public is demanding a more expensive version with extra motors and Ludicrous Mode.


Tesla is currently avoiding making a $35k car. Elon Musk pretty much said that making the $35k version would bankrupt them, due to the high loss per vehicle, and their already high rate of bleeding cash.

To be clear: He actually said that making the $35k version would bankrupt them at this stage in production. They need to get the production processes sorted out and make the top-end models for a few months before making any base models.

And, before we go down that road: None of this is a secret. They're completely open about it and anybody who's been paying attention already knows this when they sign up for a car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on May 23, 2018, 09:26:08 am
Tesla has a lot of stuff to sort out on the model 3, it brakes worse than a Ford F150  :)
https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/tesla-model-3-review-falls-short-of-consumer-reports-recommendation/ (https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/tesla-model-3-review-falls-short-of-consumer-reports-recommendation/)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 10:19:02 am
Tesla has a lot of stuff to sort out on the model 3, it brakes worse than a Ford F150  :)
https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/tesla-model-3-review-falls-short-of-consumer-reports-recommendation/ (https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/tesla-model-3-review-falls-short-of-consumer-reports-recommendation/)

I'm sure that's just a software update.

The car has to choose whether to brake regeneratively using the motors or with the conventional brake pads. There's a few menu settings to control the balance.

A serious "test facility" would have mentioned that and tested all different settings. For all we know that test was done deliberately using the worst possible combination of parameters just to make a juicy headline.

I don't see many complaints overall, and some people have been hitting the brakes pretty hard:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMl41JzQLWE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMl41JzQLWE)

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on May 23, 2018, 10:32:51 am
For all we know that test was done deliberately using the worst possible combination of parameters just to make a juicy headline.

It SHOULD be tested in the worst possible setting.  You won't have time to tweak the menus when a pedestrian walks out in front of you.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on May 23, 2018, 10:35:04 am
The car has to choose whether to brake regeneratively using the motors or with the conventional brake pads. There's a few menu settings to control the balance.

A serious "test facility" would have mentioned that and tested all different settings. For all we know that test was done deliberately using the worst possible combination of parameters just to make a juicy headline.
:palm: Ofcourse they'll use the worst parameters! You need to know the worst case distance until the car stops. Either way I don't get why there should be parameters for braking. If I press the brakes hard I want the car to stop asap.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 10:43:11 am
For all we know that test was done deliberately using the worst possible combination of parameters just to make a juicy headline.

It SHOULD be tested in the worst possible setting.

Yes, but you should also mention that information in the test and measure the difference the various settings make instead of writing articles like that one.

Me? I'd say it was more important than letting the brakes "cool overnight" (as if that could make any difference).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on May 23, 2018, 10:50:48 am
The car has to choose whether to brake regeneratively using the motors or with the conventional brake pads. There's a few menu settings to control the balance.
This is ludicrous, braking is braking period. If a company allows drivers to tweak those parameters and a single person is injured because the car did not stop in time due to a software setting they are toast. So I can not imagine that the car works that way.
The death lately of the self driving car because some parameter was not set correctly states it all: unacceptable.
There should be no parameters that can influence any persons safety.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 10:52:23 am
:palm: Ofcourse they'll use the worst parameters! You need to know the worst case distance until the car stops.

If it's not the default settings then it's a bit dishonest not to mention that, n'est pas?

If I press the brakes hard I want the car to stop asap.

If the car knows you're in the middle of a runway with nothing in a 100 meter radius then it just wears out the brake pads.

Maybe the car is deliberately saving the brakes for a real emergency, that all those "idiot journalist" software updates actually decrease overall safety.  :popcorn:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 10:54:51 am
braking is braking period.

Not if the car can see it's on a flat surface and there's nothing around it for 100m.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on May 23, 2018, 11:03:20 am
braking is braking period.

Not if the car can see it's on a flat surface and there's nothing around it for 100m.
You mean like the woman that was killed lately because the car did not spot her? Great thinking!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 11:22:10 am
You mean like the woman that was killed lately because the car did not spot her? Great thinking!

No, nothing (https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/03/27/uber_crash_safety_systems_disabled_aptiv/) like that.  :-//
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: orion242 on May 23, 2018, 11:25:30 am
A serious "test facility" would have mentioned that and tested all different settings. For all we know that test was done deliberately using the worst possible combination of parameters just to make a juicy headline.

Seems like they did...

"The test is based on an industry-standard procedure designed by SAE International, a global engineering association. Our testers get a car up to 60 mph, then slam on the brakes until the car comes to a stop. They repeat this multiple times to ensure consistent results"
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 11:40:10 am
I don't get why there should be parameters for braking.

It's not difficult:
a) Increased range via. energy recovery.
b) Less wear on brake pads.


And apparently: Consumer Reports "has an early production car. Model 3 now has improved ride comfort, lower wind noise & many other small improvements. Will request that they test current production."

Also: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-admits-tesla-model-3-has-braking-problems/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-admits-tesla-model-3-has-braking-problems/)

So the problem is fixed.

(...while the lucky-to-be-alive Tesla Model 3 owners are sleeping in their beds).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 11:46:54 am
A serious "test facility" would have mentioned that and tested all different settings. For all we know that test was done deliberately using the worst possible combination of parameters just to make a juicy headline.

Seems like they did...

"The test is based on an industry-standard procedure designed by SAE International, a global engineering association. Our testers get a car up to 60 mph, then slam on the brakes until the car comes to a stop. They repeat this multiple times to ensure consistent results"

Absolutely!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 23, 2018, 12:31:23 pm
I'm sure that's just a software update.

The car has to choose whether to brake regeneratively using the motors or with the conventional brake pads. There's a few menu settings to control the balance.
When gently braking the car has to choose between braking schemes, and the user has some control over how that works. When the pedal is pressed really firmly for an emergency stop the car should be dragging all four wheels to the edge of lockup, by any mechanisms it has available. It should also be ensuring that is doesn't go beyond the point of lockup. There should be no user selection for this. If the software hasn't got this issue sorted out properly, its unfit for use on public roads.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 12:43:29 pm
If the software hasn't got this issue sorted out properly, its unfit for use on public roads.

Weird that nobody else has noticed.

When the pedal is pressed really firmly for an emergency stop the car should be dragging all four wheels to the edge of lockup, by any mechanisms it has available.

And that's exactly what it did in the first test and in Tesla's own tests. It only took longer to stop in their second and subsequent tests. What changed?

The good news is that Elon is all over this and In Elon We Trust, right?

Let's see what happens in the next few days.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 23, 2018, 01:01:17 pm
When the pedal is pressed really firmly for an emergency stop the car should be dragging all four wheels to the edge of lockup, by any mechanisms it has available.

And that's exactly what it did in the first test and in Tesla's own tests. It only took longer to stop in their second and subsequent tests. What changed?

The good news is that Elon is all over this and In Elon We Trust, right?

Let's see what happens in the next few days.
They say that between tests the car was driven for at least a mile, to ensure things have had time to cool. The second test should give a very similar result to the first test.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on May 23, 2018, 01:27:58 pm
Weird that nobody else has noticed.
Because in all probablity those parameters are ignored on an emergency stop (hard brake) as they should.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 23, 2018, 01:32:07 pm
Weird that nobody else has noticed.
Because in all probablity those parameters are ignored on an emergency stop (hard brake) as they should.

It seems like the sort of thing any half-competent engineer would think of during the design phase, yes.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: jh15 on May 24, 2018, 03:26:49 am
quote: One only gets the tax crdit if they puchaased a solar system.

??? Just got our tax return, 7500 dollar credit. Never even looked into solar, too many trees.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ez24 on May 24, 2018, 04:12:25 am
??? Just got our tax return, 7500 dollar credit. Never even looked into solar, too many trees.

Was that from your car?  Does this mean you saved 7500 (ie 7500 less tax).  I have a hard time with "tax credit"

Do you use Autopilot ?  Must be weird the first time.

If you are stopped at an intersection and someone steps off the curb on the other side into your path about two seconds before you hit the gas, what would happen?  It just happened to me and I would have gotten a ticket if caught.  This really troubled me.  I would say they were about 8 feet from me when I saw them (I was already moving).

Do you think your car has saved you from an accident or ticket?

Next year I hope to get a Toyota Corolla Hatchback because of its safety features (good but not as good as your Tesla).


thanks
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on May 24, 2018, 06:47:27 pm
The tax credit is max $7500 (less if battery is below the minimum size). And no, they do not get any “ cash”.

If you are in a 15% fed tax bracket (lowest), what is the savings in your pocket?   I think it is 7500 x .15 = $1,125    Still not enough to help the masses, just enough to help the power brokers.   So if I bought one, I would pay $1,125 less in taxes and get audited on why someone in my 15% tax bracket could afford a EC.   :-DD

A 7500 tax credit is not $7500 !

This is NOT a reason to hit the "mainstream".  The matching of price of gas and electric in cars that the masses can buy will then it become mainstream  (not in my lifetime).  I will pay attention next time to the luxury car ad that said it matches their gas cars.  Now I would like to know the prices.

Uh, the $7500 credit is against taxes, not a deduction.  If your federal income tax bill was $7500, you would owe $0. Though, if you  owed less FIT, say $5000, you would lose the overage - $2500 in that case. The overage doesn't roll over, either.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 30, 2018, 07:51:25 pm
Quote
Braking issue
In Elon We Trust... let's see what happens in the next few days.

Guess what? All the Tesla Model 3s now stop 20 feet shorter than before.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model-3/consumer-reports-recommends-teslas-model-3-after-braking-fix-idUSKCN1IV29D (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model-3/consumer-reports-recommends-teslas-model-3-after-braking-fix-idUSKCN1IV29D)

"Jake Fisher, director of automotive testing at Consumer Reports, said he had never seen a car that could improve its track performance with an over-the-air update in his 19-year career at the magazine. "


Welcome to the 21st century, Jack.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 30, 2018, 08:13:13 pm
Quote
Braking issue
In Elon We Trust... let's see what happens in the next few days.

Guess what? All the Tesla Model 3s now stop 20 feet shorter than before.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model-3/consumer-reports-recommends-teslas-model-3-after-braking-fix-idUSKCN1IV29D (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model-3/consumer-reports-recommends-teslas-model-3-after-braking-fix-idUSKCN1IV29D)

"Jake Fisher, director of automotive testing at Consumer Reports, said he had never seen a car that could improve its track performance with an over-the-air update in his 19-year career at the magazine. "


Welcome to the 21st century, Jack.


So.....

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on May 30, 2018, 08:31:58 pm
The Tesla fanboys... uffff
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 30, 2018, 08:52:47 pm
The Tesla fanboys... uffff

 :-DD
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on May 30, 2018, 09:06:50 pm
Quote
Braking issue
In Elon We Trust... let's see what happens in the next few days.

Guess what? All the Tesla Model 3s now stop 20 feet shorter than before.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model-3/consumer-reports-recommends-teslas-model-3-after-braking-fix-idUSKCN1IV29D (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model-3/consumer-reports-recommends-teslas-model-3-after-braking-fix-idUSKCN1IV29D)

"Jake Fisher, director of automotive testing at Consumer Reports, said he had never seen a car that could improve its track performance with an over-the-air update in his 19-year career at the magazine. "


Welcome to the 21st century, Jack.
If it stops 20 feet shorter than before its still far from best in class. Why are you impressed?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on May 31, 2018, 08:56:17 am
If it stops 20 feet shorter than before its still far from best in class. Why are you impressed?

Why aren't you happier now that all your concerns have been addressed?  :-//

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on May 31, 2018, 11:27:28 am
Stopping 20 feet less didn’t help here.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-rear-ended-by-street-racing-camaro-driver/

But what a case of great PR about the safety of the Tesla.  No fire, explosion, and no one in the vehicle was hurt.  Got to give a plus 1 to Tesla on this one.

Electric car sales are still only a nano-drop in the bucket, but just look at the growth in sales.  Wonder if the $10,000 in tax credits and rebates have anything to do with it?
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Just look at the explosive growth in sales of the Porsche Panamera.  Crud a 336% increase in just four months.  Incredible isn’t it?  Projected out to a year Porsche Panamera EV sales will have increased over 1,300%.  ICE or EV those are impressive sales figures.

Thing is, once you drive, own and have to maintain an EV 99.99% will never buy or own an ICE ever again.
The cost to own and maintain and power an EV the pure economics will drive the sales of EV.  It’s in-America to pay more for something when you know someone else is paying less.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on May 31, 2018, 04:25:20 pm
  Wonder if the $10,000 in tax credits and rebates have anything to do with it?

It a $7500 federal tax credit. And yes, I'm sure it helps. After all, that is the whole point of the tax credit - to encourage adoption of EVs.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 01, 2018, 05:23:59 am
Tesla looking bad again.  Here’s the report from the insurance claim.  Tesla car was minding it’s own business safely driving down the street.  When all of a sudden a parked police car ran into it.  Tesla is saying this is just another case of police using excessive force against minority cars. 

See attachment
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on June 01, 2018, 10:43:01 am
I find it always funny how these messages are getting blown up.
To put things in perspective, also look at similar accidents with human drivers and you will be amazed. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 01, 2018, 01:15:25 pm
I find it always funny how these messages are getting blown up.
To put things in perspective, also look at similar accidents with human drivers and you will be amazed.

Remember: There's absolutely no limit to how bad human drivers can be.

Ref: https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid (https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid)

At least robots don't get angry/drunk/bored/fall asleep.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 01, 2018, 02:58:18 pm
I find it always funny how these messages are getting blown up.
To put things in perspective, also look at similar accidents with human drivers and you will be amazed.

Remember: There's absolutely no limit to how bad human drivers can be.

Ref: https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid (https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid)

At least robots don't get angry/drunk/bored/fall asleep.

Or the stories people make up to blame someone else.

I wonder how self driving cars do in snow, heavy rains, when the streets need to be plowed or are all slushy with a mixture of partially melted snow/ice, mud and gravel.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 01, 2018, 03:09:42 pm
I wonder how self driving cars do in snow, heavy rains, when the streets need to be plowed or are all slushy with a mixture of partially melted snow/ice, mud and gravel.

The computers will have a massive advantage because they'll know what to do, unlike most humans who just assume they can drive normally in their magic driving box.

PS: The humans are already dependent on computer help. ABS, traction control, etc.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on June 01, 2018, 03:14:11 pm
In a sea of white snow will they be able to navigate.  No white lines to track.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 01, 2018, 04:00:30 pm
I wonder how self driving cars do in snow, heavy rains, when the streets need to be plowed or are all slushy with a mixture of partially melted snow/ice, mud and gravel.

The computers will have a massive advantage because they'll know what to do, unlike most humans who just assume they can drive normally in their magic driving box.

PS: The humans are already dependent on computer help. ABS, traction control, etc.

“they'll know what to do”, meaning computers?  Not quite.  I’t humans who program the computers so they “know” what to do in a specific set of circumstances. It is man’s reasoning the computers are following.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 01, 2018, 04:59:36 pm
The computers will have a massive advantage because they'll know what to do
“they'll know what to do”, meaning computers?  Not quite.  I’t humans who program the computers so they “know” what to do in a specific set of circumstances. It is man’s reasoning the computers are following.

ie. The computers will know what to do.  :-//

The "specific set of circumstances" is driving on a slippery surface. There's not many variants on that and computers already do it better than humans. The computers are so good that we've already passed laws mandating their installation to help humans drive better.

(ie. it already happened, it's not just an imaginary future that I'm inventing in my head).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 02, 2018, 11:40:35 pm

Why did you not mention Next Gen Nuclear?
Not only do we have an endless supply of fuel, (water) we will be able to produce as much electricity as the world can consume.  And not only that it's clean, green, renewable, cheap, non-polluting, environmentally friendly, no radioactive byproducts or waste, endless supply of fuel with no mining or processing, and should there be a massive nuclear accident in 15-20 years the nuclear fuel will have completely decayed away and the area would be completely safe to inhabit.


This smells of the bullshit put out in the early days of conventional nuclear fission reactors such as "it will be soooo cheap that you won't be able to meter it" and it is infallibly safe etc etc.


Thorium-based nuclear power uses thorium to create an isotope of uranium and through a few steps of radioactive decay yields 233 29 U as the fuel. It has a half-life of more than 160,000 years. That's a long time to wait to go back home after an accident.

It's not environmentally friendly (what is?) Thorium is mined as monazite (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monazite). It has to be processed into the pure element. Open cast mining is one of the most environmentally destructive activities our species has managed to inflict on this planet.

It won't be of commercial relevance for at least another 20 to 25 years.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 03, 2018, 12:24:43 am

Why did you not mention Next Gen Nuclear?
Not only do we have an endless supply of fuel, (water) we will be able to produce as much electricity as the world can consume.  And not only that it's clean, green, renewable, cheap, non-polluting, environmentally friendly, no radioactive byproducts or waste, endless supply of fuel with no mining or processing, and should there be a massive nuclear accident in 15-20 years the nuclear fuel will have completely decayed away and the area would be completely safe to inhabit.


This smells of the bullshit put out in the early days of conventional nuclear fission reactors such as "it will be soooo cheap that you won't be able to meter it" and it is infallibly safe etc etc.


Thorium-based nuclear power uses thorium to create an isotope of uranium and through a few steps of radioactive decay yields 233 29 U as the fuel. It has a half-life of more than 160,000 years. That's a long time to wait to go back home after an accident.

It's not environmentally friendly (what is?) Thorium is mining as an ore. It has to be converted to the pure element. Open cast mining is one of the most environmentally destructive activities our species has managed to inflict on this planet.

It won't be of commercial relevance for at least another 20 to 25 years.

 
Thorium reactors are a thing of the past.  Lots of promises, too many technical problems which could not be solved. China was working on one and just gave up this year.  They spent years trying to come up with solutions for all of the technical challenges and finally realized there were no solutions.

China like many other coutnries have realized the best solution with providing the wold with electricity is Next Gen Nuclear. It's renewable, green, has no long lived radioactive waste, and we have an abundance of nucear materail.

 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 03, 2018, 12:34:15 am
Do you mean fusion?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 03, 2018, 12:41:08 am
Yup - There are six completely different approaches being taken and so far we have not run into any obstacles we haven't been able to solve so far.  I don't think anyone is conducting research on MSRs at this time.  China was the holdout, but they just gave up.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 03, 2018, 12:55:29 am
I see the industry's PR spin hard at work :) NextGen? It's been around for decades.

Though it may be fair to say that there's no radioactive waste, the reactors themselves will be as radioactive as fission reactors and will have to be dealt with accordingly at the point of decommissioning.

The technological advances are extraordinary and the idea of recreating the conditions of the sun in a building is very cool (or hot) but there's that issue of getting out more energy than you put in.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 03, 2018, 01:05:26 am
I see the industry's PR spin hard at work :) NextGen? It's been around for decades.

Though it may be fair to say that there's no radioactive waste, the reactors themselves will be as radioactive as fission reactors and will have to be dealt with accordingly at the point of decommissioning.

The technological advances are extraordinary and the idea of recreating the conditions of the sun in a building is very cool (or hot) but there's that issue of getting out more energy than you put in.

There is radioactive waste, but it's not long lived, very short half-life.  In just 25 years ALL of the radiaion will have decayed away. 

We have already recerated and ecceeded the fusion conditions and temperaute on Earth in four of the designs.  (The other two orginizations are not saying.  But it's thought they must have done the same becases the billionares are still funding them.)

The issue of getting more energy out than one puts in has been solved also.  We have already done it.  The next challenge is how to sustain that release of energy.  THere's no indication we won't be able to do that either  We are working on it.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on June 03, 2018, 01:23:24 am
I find it always funny how these messages are getting blown up.
To put things in perspective, also look at similar accidents with human drivers and you will be amazed.

Remember: There's absolutely no limit to how bad human drivers can be.

Ref: https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid (https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid)

At least robots don't get angry/drunk/bored/fall asleep.
Well I have seen enough official research, basically >96% of ALL accidents is because of human error.

So in all these news items about self driving cars I would really like to see a very decent analyses how humans would perform in the same conditions.
I highly doubt if that would be any better.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 03, 2018, 01:31:56 am
I find it always funny how these messages are getting blown up.
To put things in perspective, also look at similar accidents with human drivers and you will be amazed.

Remember: There's absolutely no limit to how bad human drivers can be.

Ref: https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid (https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid)

At least robots don't get angry/drunk/bored/fall asleep.
Well I have seen enough official research, basically >96% of ALL accidents is because of human error.

So in all these news items about self driving cars I would really like to see a very decent analyses how humans would perform in the same conditions.
I highly doubt if that would be any better.

Humans would be perfored 99.99999% better.  And in the accidents where there as a fatality, the human drivers under the same cirucmstances would not have caused a fatality or even an injury.

Humans are good at somethings, machines are better at others.




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 03, 2018, 01:39:06 am
At least robots don't get angry/drunk/bored/fall asleep.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttVhzzaPd_k (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttVhzzaPd_k)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 03, 2018, 04:42:46 am
Maybe Tesla could add drunk and impaired to their list of driving options.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on June 03, 2018, 12:09:42 pm
I find it always funny how these messages are getting blown up.
To put things in perspective, also look at similar accidents with human drivers and you will be amazed.

Remember: There's absolutely no limit to how bad human drivers can be.

Ref: https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid (https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid)

At least robots don't get angry/drunk/bored/fall asleep.
Well I have seen enough official research, basically >96% of ALL accidents is because of human error.

So in all these news items about self driving cars I would really like to see a very decent analyses how humans would perform in the same conditions.
I highly doubt if that would be any better.

Humans would be perfored 99.99999% better.  And in the accidents where there as a fatality, the human drivers under the same cirucmstances would not have caused a fatality or even an injury.

Humans are good at somethings, machines are better at others.
And that is based on what research?
Like I said before, more than 96% of all accidents is because of human error.
Following that logic I find it VERY unlikely a human being would perform better.
Let alone so much better as you would suggest.

Unless laws of physics and statistics are biased somehow.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 03, 2018, 03:34:01 pm
I find it always funny how these messages are getting blown up.
To put things in perspective, also look at similar accidents with human drivers and you will be amazed.

Remember: There's absolutely no limit to how bad human drivers can be.

Ref: https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid (https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid)

At least robots don't get angry/drunk/bored/fall asleep.
Well I have seen enough official research, basically >96% of ALL accidents is because of human error.

So in all these news items about self driving cars I would really like to see a very decent analyses how humans would perform in the same conditions.
I highly doubt if that would be any better.

Humans would be perfored 99.99999% better.  And in the accidents where there as a fatality, the human drivers under the same cirucmstances would not have caused a fatality or even an injury.

Humans are good at somethings, machines are better at others.
And that is based on what research?
Like I said before, more than 96% of all accidents is because of human error.
Following that logic I find it VERY unlikely a human being would perform better.
Let alone so much better as you would suggest.

Unless laws of physics and statistics are biased somehow.

Have you read any of the accident reports where a self-driving car resulted in a fatality?  In every case so far the human would have avidoed the accident.  The best documented accident of where the machine failed and the human driver was much better is the single car accident where the self-driving car ran into a tree killing the driver in California.  The driver had documented and reported the problem on a stretch of road where the car set-driving controlled car continually fails to stay on the road.

If you look at all of the other deaths involving a self-driving car you will find a human would have avoided them.  As for the non-fatal crashes, humans would have avoided over 99.9999% of those accidents too.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: b_force on June 03, 2018, 04:16:11 pm
I find it always funny how these messages are getting blown up.
To put things in perspective, also look at similar accidents with human drivers and you will be amazed.

Remember: There's absolutely no limit to how bad human drivers can be.

Ref: https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid (https://www.google.com/search?q=bad+drivers&tbm=vid)

At least robots don't get angry/drunk/bored/fall asleep.
Well I have seen enough official research, basically >96% of ALL accidents is because of human error.

So in all these news items about self driving cars I would really like to see a very decent analyses how humans would perform in the same conditions.
I highly doubt if that would be any better.

Humans would be perfored 99.99999% better.  And in the accidents where there as a fatality, the human drivers under the same cirucmstances would not have caused a fatality or even an injury.

Humans are good at somethings, machines are better at others.
And that is based on what research?
Like I said before, more than 96% of all accidents is because of human error.
Following that logic I find it VERY unlikely a human being would perform better.
Let alone so much better as you would suggest.

Unless laws of physics and statistics are biased somehow.

Have you read any of the accident reports where a self-driving car resulted in a fatality?  In every case so far the human would have avidoed the accident.  The best documented accident of where the machine failed and the human driver was much better is the single car accident where the self-driving car ran into a tree killing the driver in California.  The driver had documented and reported the problem on a stretch of road where the car set-driving controlled car continually fails to stay on the road.

If you look at all of the other deaths involving a self-driving car you will find a human would have avoided them.  As for the non-fatal crashes, humans would have avoided over 99.9999% of those accidents too.
You're using a loop argument, and yes there has been billions of similar accidents with humans.
The whole idea of the 96% number is that humans DO NOT always avoid accidents.
If you want to compare numbers you need to it fair and take a look at the whole picture.
Not just a few accidents that hit the news and think that's a representative number to prove that self-driving cars are bad or something.
That is at least not how thought me to do proper science and statistics.

Also it's not helping to bring that 96% number down.
So they have to look for alternatives right?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 03, 2018, 04:24:04 pm
Have you read any of the accident reports where a self-driving car resulted in a fatality?  In every case so far the human would have avidoed the accident.  The best documented accident of where the machine failed and the human driver was much better is the single car accident where the self-driving car ran into a tree killing the driver in California.  The driver had documented and reported the problem on a stretch of road where the car set-driving controlled car continually fails to stay on the road.

If you look at all of the other deaths involving a self-driving car you will find a human would have avoided them.  As for the non-fatal crashes, humans would have avoided over 99.9999% of those accidents too.
In the early days of automating aircraft with software based flight control systems there were some horrendous screwups, which resulted in the total loss of aircraft. These were mostly fighter aircraft, so they incurred one death at a time. By the time large passenger aircraft were being automated the lessons from early mistakes in military aircraft had been learned, and things went pretty smoothly. Until recently the production and testing of the software for cars was also learning from these early mistakes. It feels like people have given up on this now. The recent issue with Tesla 3 braking distance is a good example. The public seems impressed that an OTA update released just a few days after the report of a serious safety issue has significantly improved performance. I'm not sure many people with a history in safety critical systems are so impressed. How well was this update tested for unintended consequences in such a short time?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 03, 2018, 04:26:47 pm
You're using a loop argument, and yes there has been billions of similar accidents with humans.
The whole idea of the 96% number is that humans DO NOT always avoid accidents.
If you want to compare numbers you need to it fair and take a look at the whole picture.
Not just a few accidents that hit the news and think that's a representative number to prove that self-driving cars are bad or something.
That is at least not how thought me to do proper science and statistics.

Also it's not helping to bring that 96% number down.
So they have to look for alternatives right?
I'm not sure if you are missing the point, or trying to avoid it. Several recent incidents have shown serious holes in the systems in these autonomous cars. They aren't failing to avoid an accident, as a distracted human might. They are so poorly designed they aren't even TRYING to avoid some reasonably common crash scenarios.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 03, 2018, 07:04:24 pm
You're using a loop argument, and yes there has been billions of similar accidents with humans.
The whole idea of the 96% number is that humans DO NOT always avoid accidents.
If you want to compare numbers you need to it fair and take a look at the whole picture.
Not just a few accidents that hit the news and think that's a representative number to prove that self-driving cars are bad or something.
That is at least not how thought me to do proper science and statistics.

Also it's not helping to bring that 96% number down.
So they have to look for alternatives right?
I'm not sure if you are missing the point, or trying to avoid it. Several recent incidents have shown serious holes in the systems in these autonomous cars. They aren't failing to avoid an accident, as a distracted human might. They are so poorly designed they aren't even TRYING to avoid some reasonably common crash scenarios.


I agree he is missing the point.  How many years have we been working on automated-driving software?  Hasn't it been well over 50 years?  One would think after 50 years of develpement we are getting close to perfection.  Appears not...   As sophisticated as the software is I hope he can explain how the software mistook a tree for the road killing the driver.  And this wasn't the first time either.  There are at leat two accidents where the software drove the car right into a tree killing the driver.

And what about the times the software mistook a pakred police car and a parked truck for the road.

It appearss or poster hasn't learned from history, specificly the Therac-25 what can go wrong with computer programs. 
https://hackaday.com/2015/10/26/killed-by-a-machine-the-therac-25/













Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 04, 2018, 06:02:47 am
Have you read any of the accident reports where a self-driving car resulted in a fatality?  In every case so far the human would have avidoed the accident.

You seem to be under the illusion that a zero-accident rate should be attained before deploying these.

That's never happened before with any new tech, why should it happen now? SO far they seem to be doing quite well.

  The best documented accident of where the machine failed and the human driver was much better is the single car accident where the self-driving car ran into a tree killing the driver in California.  The driver had documented and reported the problem on a stretch of road where the car set-driving controlled car continually fails to stay on the road.

I'm sure the software has been updated.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 04, 2018, 06:46:13 am
I'm sure the software has been updated.
Why? Whatever would lead you to that conclusion? People who take no great care with the first pass of a product don't suddenly wake up and become fantastic engineers.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 04, 2018, 07:22:00 am
Why? Whatever would lead you to that conclusion? People who take no great care with the first pass of a product don't suddenly wake up and become fantastic engineers.
As we have seen with the Toyota embedded software inquiry and investigation, it was a mess!
It is very hard and costly to maintain large software stacks and keep them decent over the years, from the 8 large companies I have worked for it is more an exception than a standard. It starts all nice and neat and architecture is ok and documentation ok, then 5 years later none are up to date, too many temp sw engineers have done their "job" and things start to fall apart.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 04, 2018, 03:42:21 pm
Have you read any of the accident reports where a self-driving car resulted in a fatality?  In every case so far the human would have avidoed the accident.

You seem to be under the illusion that a zero-accident rate should be attained before deploying these.

That's never happened before with any new tech, why should it happen now? SO far they seem to be doing quite well.

  The best documented accident of where the machine failed and the human driver was much better is the single car accident where the self-driving car ran into a tree killing the driver in California.  The driver had documented and reported the problem on a stretch of road where the car set-driving controlled car continually fails to stay on the road.

I'm sure the software has been updated.

There are so many simalarities between the Therac 25 and waht's going on with selfdriving cars. 
Did you not read what happened?

With the Therac when the humans were in conrtrol of the machine there were no deaths.
But with the Therac 25 the machine was automated and humans no longer had control, and deaths occured.  Society and the courts found the people the machine was supposed to be "saving their lives" wound up killing was not acceptable.


Or pehaps you want something a bit more modern and car related.  Toyota had multiple bugs in their softwsare. 


And you do know of the five times computer systems reported to the humans nuclear missles had been launced by either the US against Soviet Union/Russia?  Or that US was being attacked by the Soviet Union.

In one case it turned out to be the failure of a $0.49 chip.  In another it was the sun hitting some clouds.

And I hope you know about the bug in the Boeing 787.  Thankfully this was detected before one loaded with passengers fell out of the sky and crash landed on a city.  It was just a minor bug,,,,,  Every 248 days or 2^16 (as I recall) all of the computers would reboot.  During the boot process all displays and flioght controlls would be inopperative.  Doesn't matter if the plane was parked, in-flight, taking off or landing.

Amd yes like the Therac, defence computers, Toyota and Tesla's software, the Boeing software was in services indangering the public.

Question still remains with autodriving software.  Why is it the the programmers still mistake a tree and parked cars for the road?  This hasn't happend once, but multiple times.  Even someone dunk or high on drugs wouldn't make that mistake as often as the selfdriving car software.

I think the latest statistics say a selfdriving car would get into an acccident every 21 days if there were not a human in the car.  Imagine if all 16 miollion cars in the US were selfdriving.  Every 21 days there would be 16 million acciudents.  Car repair compnaies would love it.   




 

 














 




Did you not learn the story of the Therac 25 in school?

 

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on June 05, 2018, 08:52:59 am
The "specific set of circumstances" is driving on a slippery surface. There's not many variants on that and computers already do it better than humans. The computers are so good that we've already passed laws mandating their installation to help humans drive better.

Funny you say that, but the manual of the last two cars I have owned have stated the traction control should be disabled in snow and ice as it get's confused and may prevent the vehicle from moving.

More worrying it also points out that the anti-lock brakes may cause poor braking performance on snow and ice, but they cannot be disabled.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 05, 2018, 09:12:40 am
More worrying it also points out that the anti-lock brakes may cause poor braking performance on snow and ice, but they cannot be disabled.

 :o

Who wrote that? The Stig?

I'm sure a normal human would be worse.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on June 05, 2018, 10:58:45 am
The "specific set of circumstances" is driving on a slippery surface. There's not many variants on that and computers already do it better than humans. The computers are so good that we've already passed laws mandating their installation to help humans drive better.

Funny you say that, but the manual of the last two cars I have owned have stated the traction control should be disabled in snow and ice as it get's confused and may prevent the vehicle from moving.

More worrying it also points out that the anti-lock brakes may cause poor braking performance on snow and ice, but they cannot be disabled.
What car are those? Audi 80’s?

The traction control and ABS on my Citroen C4 worked quite brilliantly last winter.
It does nothing at standstill (apart from locking the diff apparently) and engages more and more as the speed rises.
I tried slow speed sliding on ice in an empty car park (to learn the limits) and it did not do anything more than understeer a bit... take the safeties off, no problem, it slides.

A professional driver might beat this, but i’m not one.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 05, 2018, 03:06:00 pm
More worrying it also points out that the anti-lock brakes may cause poor braking performance on snow and ice, but they cannot be disabled.

 :o

Who wrote that? The Stig?

I'm sure a normal human would be worse.

Do you have any data points to support your beliefs?

We have provided many data points which have shown software is making mistakes that humans, even impaired humans would not make.

 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 05, 2018, 03:56:10 pm
Do you have any data points to support your beliefs?

We have provided many data points which have shown software is making mistakes that humans, even impaired humans would not make.

Yep. In your worldview the world is full of runaway cars that fail to brake and go out of control at the drop of a hat when anybody who's been outside lately knows this isn't so.

We've also shown that there's mistake so stupid (https://www.google.com/search?tbm=vid&q=worst+driver+ever) that a human can't make it.

The point is this: Software con only get better as more self driving cars are put on the roads. It's like aviation, every crash leads to an investigation and usually new procedures/practices.

It's unlike aviation in that an update can be transmitted all over the world while people are sleeping.

In a few years from now cars will be far safer than humans. We just need to get over the initial hurdles.

Yes, some people will be killed by self-driving cars today but the future savings will be worth it. That's where your blind spot appears to be.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 05, 2018, 05:19:59 pm
[It's unlike aviation in that an update can be transmitted all over the world while people are sleeping.

Well, we all know what forced pushed updates can do. I'm not just talking laptops and phones.

My wife was driving her 3 month old MINI on the highway at 65mph when the engine cut out. She managed to get to the shoulder. She called me to get our AAA info. I said half-jokingly that BMW must have pushed a firmware update. Well, she called the dealership while waiting for the tow truck. Yup, that's exactly what happened. They bricked her car at 65mph.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on June 05, 2018, 06:02:56 pm
Modern cars are getting a little scary, EDRs, multiple always on cellular modems, a million buffer overflows which the NSA either knows about from reverse engineering or which their undercover moles put in themselves. Any advanced actor can trivially crash a modern car at will at this point with nothing more than some cellular messages, also track you and rip all the EDR data. If they don't already have a database of exploits (like the NSA) they'll just have to spend some money and time. The only certain things in life are death, taxes and exploitable buffer overflows in any non trivial C code.

I wonder if Musk rips out the antennas of cellular modems in his car, just like Zuckerberg tapes over the camera of his laptop.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 05, 2018, 06:08:21 pm
Do you have any data points to support your beliefs?

We have provided many data points which have shown software is making mistakes that humans, even impaired humans would not make.

Yep. In your worldview the world is full of runaway cars that fail to brake and go out of control at the drop of a hat when anybody who's been outside lately knows this isn't so.

We've also shown that there's mistake so stupid (https://www.google.com/search?tbm=vid&q=worst+driver+ever) that a human can't make it.

The point is this: Software con only get better as more self driving cars are put on the roads. It's like aviation, every crash leads to an investigation and usually new procedures/practices.

It's unlike aviation in that an update can be transmitted all over the world while people are sleeping.

In a few years from now cars will be far safer than humans. We just need to get over the initial hurdles.

Yes, some people will be killed by self-driving cars today but the future savings will be worth it. That's where your blind spot appears to be.


Did you not read about the Therac 25 or the Dreamliner 787? 

At this statge in development of selfdriving car software can you explain why trees and parked cars are still be mistaken for roads and killing people?


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 06, 2018, 08:40:36 am
The math of why EV cars can never be mainstem.

https://youtu.be/lSb5xas_xp0
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 06, 2018, 09:38:39 am
LOL, for Tesla all hype is good, the fanboys might even say that this is the thing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bXjn3wwM8o (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bXjn3wwM8o)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 06, 2018, 09:39:22 am
[It's unlike aviation in that an update can be transmitted all over the world while people are sleeping.

Well, we all know what forced pushed updates can do. I'm not just talking laptops and phones.

My wife was driving her 3 month old MINI on the highway at 65mph when the engine cut out. She managed to get to the shoulder. She called me to get our AAA info. I said half-jokingly that BMW must have pushed a firmware update. Well, she called the dealership while waiting for the tow truck. Yup, that's exactly what happened. They bricked her car at 65mph.

If that's true then this will have lead to a new procedure/practice at BMW.

nb. I'm not sure that is the reason. It could just as easily be a loose wire or something, car dealers aren't famous for rigor.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 06, 2018, 09:51:29 am
OTA updates means we'll all become beta testers then?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 06, 2018, 10:08:50 am
Did you not read about the Therac 25 or the Dreamliner 787? 

At this statge in development of selfdriving car software can you explain why trees and parked cars are still be mistaken for roads and killing people?
Can you explain why human drivers still hit trees, parked cars and kill pedestrians at this point of time?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 06, 2018, 10:12:28 am
At least we always see the trailers.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 06, 2018, 10:20:02 am
OTA updates means we'll all become beta testers then?

Oh, FFS...   :palm:

"YES!"
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 06, 2018, 10:25:53 am
OTA updates means we'll all become beta testers then?

Oh, FFS...   :palm:

"YES!"

And that's another + for Tesla in your opinion?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 06, 2018, 10:36:21 am
And that's another + for Tesla in your opinion?

Nope. It's a benefit for society as a whole.

If you think it isn't then please turn off all your computing devices, they have bugs/exploits in them, guaranteed!   :scared: :scared: :scared:

What's it to be?
a) Continue posting in this forum and take the risk that one day your computer might crash and lose data?
or
b) Switch everything off, just in case.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 06, 2018, 10:37:07 am
At least we always see the trailers.
Really?   :palm:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 06, 2018, 10:49:49 am
And bricking a truck/bus/car/train/plane is about as bad as bricking a fucking tablet. Ooopsie!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 06, 2018, 11:11:19 am
At least we always see the trailers.
Really?   :palm:

Really, yes. And we can even drive perfectly on roads with no or blurry lines.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 06, 2018, 11:17:07 am
At least we always see the trailers.
Really?   :palm:

Really, yes. And we can even drive perfectly on roads with no or blurry lines.
For some reason road accidents contradict the statement of human drivers always seeing the trailers.


(http://1juvqc3mh3vz399t0e473dn7.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Houston-truck-accident-texting-and-driving.jpg)

Or this: http://livetrucking.com/california-man-killed-after-crashing-into-parked-semi/ (http://livetrucking.com/california-man-killed-after-crashing-into-parked-semi/)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 06, 2018, 11:46:45 am
(snip)

If you're continuing to post here then you're continuing to use computers, ie. You know what a cost/benefit analysis is.

Now you just need to realize that three innocent people were killed by drunk drivers while you were typing that reply and a hundred others did something incredibly stupid while driving.

Feel free to come back when you've grokked that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 06, 2018, 11:50:04 am
Really, yes. And we can even drive perfectly on roads with no or blurry lines.
For some reason road accidents contradict the statement of human drivers always seeing the trailers.

The idea that they can drive perfectly on roads with neatly painted/visible lines is also not supported by the evidence.
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=449203;image)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 06, 2018, 02:17:46 pm
[It's unlike aviation in that an update can be transmitted all over the world while people are sleeping.

Well, we all know what forced pushed updates can do. I'm not just talking laptops and phones.

My wife was driving her 3 month old MINI on the highway at 65mph when the engine cut out. She managed to get to the shoulder. She called me to get our AAA info. I said half-jokingly that BMW must have pushed a firmware update. Well, she called the dealership while waiting for the tow truck. Yup, that's exactly what happened. They bricked her car at 65mph.

If that's true then this will have lead to a new procedure/practice at BMW.

nb. I'm not sure that is the reason. It could just as easily be a loose wire or something, car dealers aren't famous for rigor.


They confirmed it had just been updated at that point.


There's not much that the dealership does with the car arrives from the UK. It's been thoroughly tested at the plant and is road ready. I've been around MINI's plant in Oxford. It is amazing. One car a minute and each one is custom. They've never made two cars the same.

The car has the OnStar-type radio communication system that you can subscribe to. When my wife ordered the car (built to her specificiations), she declined it but clearly the system is always active and BMW are in constant communication with the car. Who knows what information is sent back and forth. There's nothing to indicate the system is active and nothing in the paperwork to say that it is either. Yet, small updates occur in stealth-like Microsoft fashion. Weird shit has happened such as the wipers stopped working. She called the dealership, waited a couple of minutes and then they worked again. Similar thing with the interior mood lighting. The former is potentially dangerous, the latter is annoying.

If a firmware update can brick the car, disable the wipers or mess up the interior lighting (and who knows what else), I sure as hell wouldn't trust an autonomous system to understand the difference between a tree and a truck.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 06, 2018, 03:52:03 pm
Really, yes. And we can even drive perfectly on roads with no or blurry lines.
For some reason road accidents contradict the statement of human drivers always seeing the trailers.

The idea that they can drive perfectly on roads with neatly painted/visible lines is also not supported by the evidence.
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=449203;image)

No one said humans wee perfect.  But do the math....  Per driven mile, autodrivng cars get in far more accidents than humans do.  And we are not talking about a factor of 2 or 3.  Not even 10 or 100.  The math telescope us humans are far better drivers by a factor of well over 100 million.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 06, 2018, 04:06:41 pm
No one said humans wee perfect.  But do the math....  Per driven mile, autodrivng cars get in far more accidents than humans do.  And we are not talking about a factor of 2 or 3.  Not even 10 or 100.  The math telescope us humans are far better drivers by a factor of well over 100 million.
What math? You just pulled this BS out of a thin air  :palm:.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 06, 2018, 04:32:56 pm
No one said humans wee perfect.  But do the math....  Per driven mile, autodrivng cars get in far more accidents than humans do.

...and you're incapable of seeing past today. We get it.

You're incapable of seeing that future savings could massively outweigh short term losses if they're given a chance (by a factor of well over 100 million!)

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 06, 2018, 05:08:25 pm
No one said humans wee perfect.  But do the math....  Per driven mile, autodrivng cars get in far more accidents than humans do.  And we are not talking about a factor of 2 or 3.  Not even 10 or 100.  The math telescope us humans are far better drivers by a factor of well over 100 million.
What math? You just pulled this BS out of a thin air  :palm:.


Just using the published data from the selfdriving car companies have published. Interesting you call the actual data the self-driving car software companies have collected as BS.

Have you even loooked at the data?  Or do you just call everything you don't agree with as BS?






 


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 06, 2018, 05:18:41 pm
No one said humans wee perfect.  But do the math....  Per driven mile, autodrivng cars get in far more accidents than humans do.  And we are not talking about a factor of 2 or 3.  Not even 10 or 100.  The math telescope us humans are far better drivers by a factor of well over 100 million.
What math? You just pulled this BS out of a thin air  :palm:.


Just using the published data from the selfdriving car companies have published. Interesting you call the actual data the self-driving car software companies have collected as BS.

Have you even loooked at the data? 
What published data? For example, Tesla reports reduced crash rate with autopilot. https://www.theverge.com/2017/1/19/14326258/teslas-crash-rate-dropped-40-percent-after-autopilot-was-installed-feds-say (https://www.theverge.com/2017/1/19/14326258/teslas-crash-rate-dropped-40-percent-after-autopilot-was-installed-feds-say)
Quote
Or do you just call everything you don't agree with as BS?
No, only when I see a bold claim based on nothing.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 06, 2018, 05:31:08 pm
No one said humans wee perfect.  But do the math....  Per driven mile, autodrivng cars get in far more accidents than humans do.  And we are not talking about a factor of 2 or 3.  Not even 10 or 100.  The math telescope us humans are far better drivers by a factor of well over 100 million.
What math? You just pulled this BS out of a thin air  :palm:.


Just using the published data from the selfdriving car companies have published. Interesting you call the actual data the self-driving car software companies have collected as BS.

Have you even loooked at the data? 
What published data? For example, Tesla reports reduced crash rate with autopilot. https://www.theverge.com/2017/1/19/14326258/teslas-crash-rate-dropped-40-percent-after-autopilot-was-installed-feds-say (https://www.theverge.com/2017/1/19/14326258/teslas-crash-rate-dropped-40-percent-after-autopilot-was-installed-feds-say)
Quote
Or do you just call everything you don't agree with as BS?
No, only when I see a bold claim based on nothing.


Dude you are mixed up.  We have been talking about self-driving car software and offer a link to semi-autonomous Autopilot software.

Now that's BS.   
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 06, 2018, 06:57:18 pm
Dude you are mixed up.  We have been talking about self-driving car software and offer a link to semi-autonomous Autopilot software.

Now that's BS.   
Then please provide a link to your true "self driving" statistics with extraordinary number of accidents reported.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 06, 2018, 07:15:43 pm
Dude you are mixed up.  We have been talking about self-driving car software and offer a link to semi-autonomous Autopilot software.

Now that's BS.   
Then please provide a link to your true "self driving" statistics with extraordinary number of accidents reported.

Dude stop with the BS already.  Never said there were an extraordinary number of accidetns.

What I did say a human driver would not mistake trees or a parked car as being a road.  At least the humans try and avoid hitting the tree where as the selfdriving cars are driving right into them.  Per mile driven the autodriving car software is doing a much worse job.

You could start here for Waymo.  https://waymo.com/safety/

And since you asked for a link why not give me a link to data you used to call the data the selfdriving car softare companies as BS.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 06, 2018, 07:46:53 pm
You could start here for Waymo.  https://waymo.com/safety/
Where is the report on huge number of self driving car accidents, FFS? There is none in that document.
Quote
And since you asked for a link why not give me a link to data you used to call the data the selfdriving car softare companies as BS.
Because burden of proof is on person who made the claim. And where is the freaking data you are talking about? You made an extraordinary claim about self driving cars being involved in a lot of accidents, being orders of magnitude worse than real people. Therefore it's you who need to back that claim with evidence. Where FFS are all of those accidents? You provided zero evidence so far. I did not even need to provide a link about Tesla autopilot, which is the closest as it gets to see how technology works in real life with regular people using it. And I don't call the data being BS (there is no such data to begin with) as you are implying. I call BS your claim which is not backed by any data.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 06, 2018, 08:03:24 pm
You could start here for Waymo.  https://waymo.com/safety/
Where is the report on huge number of self driving car accidents, FFS? There is none in that document.
Quote
And since you asked for a link why not give me a link to data you used to call the data the selfdriving car softare companies as BS.
Because burden of proof is on person who made the claim. And where is the freaking data you are talking about? You made an extraordinary claim about self driving cars being involved in a lot of accidents, being orders of magnitude worse than real people. Therefore it's you who need to back that claim with evidence. Where FFS are all of those accidents? You provided zero evidence so far. I did not even need to provide a link about Tesla autopilot, which is the closest as it gets to see how technology works in real life with regular people using it. And I don't call the data being BS (there is no such data to begin with) as you are implying. I call BS your claim which is not backed by any data.


Dude read my post.  I said this is where you can start.  THere's data there all you need to do is a couple of simple math calculations.

Seems you have a chip on your shoulder and have preconsciend beleifs which are based on ficticious facts.  Appears You Can't Handle the Truth!


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 06, 2018, 08:07:38 pm
Dude read my post.  I said this is where you can start.  THere's data there all you need to do is a couple of simple math calculations.
Nice, now you are saying it's up to me to research and prove your BS claim. Well done, it just proves yet again that you have nothing to back your claim.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitchens%27s_razor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitchens%27s_razor)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 06, 2018, 08:13:20 pm
Dude read my post.  I said this is where you can start.  THere's data there all you need to do is a couple of simple math calculations.
Nice, now you are saying it's up to me to research and prove your BS claim. Well done, it just proves yet again that you have nothing to back your claim.


Nope what I've alway been saying is tell me why you think the data the software comapnes has collected and pubished, some of which I have shared with you is BS.

You are one saying the data is BS.  Yet you can't provide any data.  You obviouly have an agenda and are quick any data whihc you don't agree with as BS.

Sorry mate, but you need to learn critical thinking skills.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 06, 2018, 08:19:55 pm
Nope what I've alway been saying is tell me why you think the data the software comapnes has collected and pubished, some of which I have shared with you is BS.
You have shared nothing on autonomous car crash statistics so far. Open that document yourself and show us the place where it is written. Yet again, I have nothing against data, the issue is there was no data provided so far. Is it that difficult to post a quote from the document where such statistics are given? So far you made nothing but tried to twist what I'm saying. Straw man at it's best. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man)
Quote
You are one saying the data is BS.  Yet you can't provide any data.

Though I didn't need to, I provided statistics on Tesla autopilot which shows that autopilot reduces the number of accidents. Yet for you Tesla autopilot is not kosher enough to show that self driving cars reduce accidents not increase them. As for "true" self driving cars (which you cannot buy BTW as they are in testing stage), I cannot provide statistics which are not available to general public (yet somehow are available to your imagination). It's that simple.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 06, 2018, 08:26:36 pm
Sorry mate, but you need to learn critical thinking skills.
No I don't need to. Critical thinking is exactly the reason why I'm asking to provide evidence for your extraordinary claims. It's people who don't have critical thinking accept arguments without asking for any proof.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 06, 2018, 10:11:41 pm
For some people critical thinking equals to 'everything must be wrong'.  :horse:

By the way the ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association) has released an interesting statement about the adoption (or lack thereof) of EVs:
http://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/post-2020-co2-targets-cars-must-be-affordable-and-rechargeable-auto-industr (http://www.acea.be/press-releases/article/post-2020-co2-targets-cars-must-be-affordable-and-rechargeable-auto-industr)
What they are saying is that the EU should be more realistic about their goal which says that 30% of the cars sold should be electric by 2030 (12 years from now) because it would mean that the sales of EVs has to go from less than 1% to 30% in 12 years. The biggest problem the ACEA sees is that people simply can't afford EVs and charging infrastructure is lacking in many parts of europe.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 07, 2018, 06:41:54 am
A start is leasing EV's this is in our country already stimulated by the low 4% tax you have to add to your income instead of 21%.
The weird thing is that this stimulates the lease of the cool but expensive EVs the Tesla's and now Jaguars not really the mainstream EV's
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 07, 2018, 08:15:41 am
A start is leasing EV's this is in our country already stimulated by the low 4% tax you have to add to your income instead of 21%.
The weird thing is that this stimulates the lease of the cool but expensive EVs the Tesla's and now Jaguars not really the mainstream EV's
That may be but leasing a Tesla starts at around 1000 euro. For 3 times less you can lease a decent sized car (Ford Focus wagon) with an efficient engine. Also a Tesla Model S costs around 100k euro compared to around 26k euro for the Ford. 4% of 100K euro is 4000 euro and 21% of 30k is 5460. All in all the price difference is not that big. Especially if you take the different tax brackets into account the Ford Focus may even be cheaper for some people than the Tesla.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on June 07, 2018, 08:33:24 am
A start is leasing EV's this is in our country already stimulated by the low 4% tax you have to add to your income instead of 21%.
The weird thing is that this stimulates the lease of the cool but expensive EVs the Tesla's and now Jaguars not really the mainstream EV's
That may be but leasing a Tesla starts at around 1000 euro. For 3 times less you can lease a decent sized car (Ford Focus wagon) with an efficient engine. Also a Tesla Model S costs around 100k euro compared to around 26k euro for the Ford. 4% of 100K euro is 4000 euro and 21% of 30k is 5460. All in all the price difference is not that big. Especially if you take the different tax brackets into account the Ford Focus may even be cheaper for some people than the Tesla.
There quite a few Tesla S around here. They seem to be replacing Mercedes S class, BMW 5 series or Porches Panameras... Not Ford Focuses!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 07, 2018, 08:59:50 am
leasing a Tesla starts at around 1000 euro. For 3 times less you can lease a decent sized car (Ford Focus wagon) with an efficient engine.

Yes, but...

http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s (http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s)

There quite a few Tesla S around here. They seem to be replacing Mercedes S class, BMW 5 series or Porches Panameras... Not Ford Focuses!

See above.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 07, 2018, 10:35:55 am
That may be but leasing a Tesla starts at around 1000 euro. For 3 times less you can lease a decent sized car (Ford Focus wagon) with an efficient engine. Also a Tesla Model S costs around 100k euro compared to around 26k euro for the Ford.
I'm sure Elon Musk sleeps better now that Ford is killing all its low end sedans and wagons in the US. I imagine they were high of his list of products competing with the Model S. Now he has to hope they kill the Focus in Europe and Asia, and the Model S will be a slam dunk.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 07, 2018, 04:02:28 pm
We still have the issue of where we are going to get the electricity to power the cars.  We know solar and batteries can't do it.  Next gen nuclear the only soution, but that's still in development.  One has to hand it to the EU/France as they are building next generation nuclear.  We know sun and wind aren't the answer.

Just do this math.  This guy can.

https://youtu.be/lSb5xas_xp0
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 07, 2018, 04:40:05 pm
A start is leasing EV's this is in our country already stimulated by the low 4% tax you have to add to your income instead of 21%.
The weird thing is that this stimulates the lease of the cool but expensive EVs the Tesla's and now Jaguars not really the mainstream EV's
That may be but leasing a Tesla starts at around 1000 euro. For 3 times less you can lease a decent sized car (Ford Focus wagon) with an efficient engine. Also a Tesla Model S costs around 100k euro compared to around 26k euro for the Ford. 4% of 100K euro is 4000 euro and 21% of 30k is 5460. All in all the price difference is not that big. Especially if you take the different tax brackets into account the Ford Focus may even be cheaper for some people than the Tesla.
There quite a few Tesla S around here. They seem to be replacing Mercedes S class, BMW 5 series or Porches Panameras... Not Ford Focuses!
The point is that weak tax incentives don't make EVs affordable to the masses.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on June 07, 2018, 08:01:52 pm
Nope. But falling battery prices, diesel and gas exhaust particles in cities, and ramping up mass production is doing it right now.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: paulca on June 08, 2018, 07:07:53 am
More worrying it also points out that the anti-lock brakes may cause poor braking performance on snow and ice, but they cannot be disabled.

 :o

Who wrote that? The Stig?

I'm sure a normal human would be worse.

Have you ever tried it?  I have.  The anti-lock brakes in my Clio just prevented any braking at all.  No slowing down, just buzz, buzz, buzz.

As to whether I would have done better, I dunno.  In the end I had to rub the car wheels down the kerb to get the car slowed.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on June 08, 2018, 11:44:22 am
More worrying it also points out that the anti-lock brakes may cause poor braking performance on snow and ice, but they cannot be disabled.

 :o

Who wrote that? The Stig?
E
I'm sure a normal human would be worse.

Have you ever tried it?  I have.  The anti-lock brakes in my Clio just prevented any braking at all.  No slowing down, just buzz, buzz, buzz.

As to whether I would have done better, I dunno.  In the end I had to rub the car wheels down the kerb to get the car slowed.
Sounds like the front wheel sensors are very dead or the pads are worn down to the manufacturers label on the back.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 08, 2018, 01:03:21 pm
The Stig?

Have you ever tried it?  I have.  The anti-lock brakes in my Clio just prevented any braking at all.  No slowing down, just buzz, buzz, buzz.

If your Clio brakes well in normal conditions then maybe there really was zero grip today.

(imagine that, in 2018!)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 08, 2018, 01:10:18 pm
So while it's sunny and you are out at work all day you sell electricity back to the grid for less than 1/10th of what it's worth.  Then when you come home in the evening you buy electricity at full rate.

In Spain you sell back to the grid at 4 times the price, so when you come home in the evening, for every kWh you've put into the grid you can take 4kWh "for free". More than 4kWh in fact because the kWh at night is cheaper. That's what the last imbecile socialist president we had did, among many other things that ended all in disasters.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 08, 2018, 02:53:14 pm
Nope. But falling battery prices, diesel and gas exhaust particles in cities, and ramping up mass production is doing it right now.

Where is it doing it?  It's not happening in the US?  Nor in Australia as the guy in the video points out.


And where exactly are we going to get the electricity to power the electric vehicles.  It's certainaly not sun, or wind.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 08, 2018, 03:10:02 pm
So while it's sunny and you are out at work all day you sell electricity back to the grid for less than 1/10th of what it's worth.  Then when you come home in the evening you buy electricity at full rate.

In Spain you sell back to the grid at 4 times the price, so when you come home in the evening, for every kWh you've put into the grid you can take 4kWh "for free". That's what the last imbecile socialist president we had did, among many other things that ended all in disasters.

In the US if you are a PG&E customer they have a rate plan where for every kWhr you sell to the grid during the day you can buy 8 back in the evening, 7 of which are free.  And we are a democratic republic of capitalists. 

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on June 09, 2018, 05:09:15 am
Why does everyone say "Tesla Tesla Tesla".  For every Tesla there's a dozen of Nissan Leafs, Chevy Bolt, VW eGolf and BMW i3s on the road here.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 09, 2018, 03:58:25 pm
Why does everyone say "Tesla Tesla Tesla".  For every Tesla there's a dozen of Nissan Leafs, Chevy Bolt, VW eGolf and BMW i3s on the road here.

Depends on where you live.  Where I live in California there are 20-30 Tesla’s and 2 or 3 i3 for every Leaf, Bolt, Volt, and eGolf on the road. 

 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Neilm on June 09, 2018, 05:26:22 pm
Why does everyone say "Tesla Tesla Tesla".  For every Tesla there's a dozen of Nissan Leafs, Chevy Bolt, VW eGolf and BMW i3s on the road here.

Chevy Bolt is not available in UK - they announced some time ago they were not going to sell it here. Now they have pulled out of Europe the last I heard they were only selling a few there.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 09, 2018, 08:26:20 pm
Why does everyone say "Tesla Tesla Tesla".  For every Tesla there's a dozen of Nissan Leafs, Chevy Bolt, VW eGolf and BMW i3s on the road here.

Chevy Bolt is not available in UK - they announced some time ago they were not going to sell it here. Now they have pulled out of Europe the last I heard they were only selling a few there.

With GM it’s all about the making as much money as possible.  Has GM ever done something that good for the planet?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 09, 2018, 09:02:45 pm
Why does everyone say "Tesla Tesla Tesla".  For every Tesla there's a dozen of Nissan Leafs, Chevy Bolt, VW eGolf and BMW i3s on the road here.
Because only Tesla makes decent EVs which can somewhat replace a car. The rest of the EVs are just glorified golf carts with limited range.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on June 09, 2018, 09:43:19 pm
BMW i3 is available as a plug in hybrid. Albeit overpriced as BMWs tend to be.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 09, 2018, 10:40:03 pm
BMW i3 is available as a plug in hybrid. Albeit overpriced as BMWs tend to be.

Have you looked at the Bavarian Money Waister car to see a stupid design it?  When the battery is depleted it has a small gas engine so the car can limp along with the speed greatly reduced.

I think of all of the EV cars Chevy is the only one that got it right and makes sense.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 10, 2018, 07:59:33 am
Chevy Bolt is not available in UK - they announced some time ago they were not going to sell it here. Now they have pulled out of Europe the last I heard they were only selling a few there.
In mainland Europe it is sold as Opel Ampera-E , i believe Opel is called Vauxhall in the UK.
Its range is better than the Tesla btw.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 10, 2018, 12:42:49 pm
Chevy Bolt is not available in UK - they announced some time ago they were not going to sell it here. Now they have pulled out of Europe the last I heard they were only selling a few there.
In mainland Europe it is sold as Opel Ampera-E , i believe Opel is called Vauxhall in the UK.
Its range is better than the Tesla btw.
Is the Ampera-E still available, now that GM Europe has been sold off? I thought it was dead.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Neilm on June 10, 2018, 06:48:14 pm
Chevy Bolt is not available in UK - they announced some time ago they were not going to sell it here. Now they have pulled out of Europe the last I heard they were only selling a few there.
In mainland Europe it is sold as Opel Ampera-E , i believe Opel is called Vauxhall in the UK.
Its range is better than the Tesla btw.
Is the Ampera-E still available, now that GM Europe has been sold off? I thought it was dead.
Last I heard, it was technically still available, but GM are restricting the supply so the dealers are trying to cross sell to ICE cars. I recall reading it was over 18 months in some places.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 11, 2018, 03:43:30 am
Because only Tesla makes decent EVs which can somewhat replace a car. The rest of the EVs are just glorified golf carts with limited range.

(https://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/final-2.jpg)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 11, 2018, 05:01:43 am
What kind of metric is Price per kWh??????????????????????????????
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 11, 2018, 06:46:49 am
What kind of metric is Price per kWh??????????????????????????????

kWh tells you something about the car, no?

(size of the battery)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 11, 2018, 07:01:53 am
That table mixes hybrids with EV's, if you talk EV and range you should limit to pure EV cars otherwise there is not much to compare or talk about, everybody knows that hybrids and ICE's have a much longer range.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: richard.cs on June 11, 2018, 07:57:17 am
That table mixes hybrids with EV's, if you talk EV and range you should limit to pure EV cars otherwise there is not much to compare or talk about, everybody knows that hybrids and ICE's have a much longer range.
There is a column for EV range to the left of the total range.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on June 11, 2018, 11:56:00 am
Why does everyone say "Tesla Tesla Tesla".
Because Tesla is providing the long range system where you can fast charge during long trips, making it as practical as an ICE. Others simply don't.

For every Tesla there's a dozen of Nissan Leafs, Chevy Bolt, VW eGolf and BMW i3s on the road here.
Nope.
Tesla already overtook GM and Nissan combined in EV sales, yearly and monthly.
In cumulative "on the road" vehicles in U.S., Tesla already surpassed Nissan, and will soon also overtake GM :
(https://cdn.blog.ucsusa.org/wp-content/uploads/Federal-incentive-tracking.png)
Others like BMW, VW are really anectdotal, they sell in homeopathic quantities.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 11, 2018, 12:03:10 pm
That table mixes hybrids with EV's

PHEVs are EVs. They are serial hybrids which have the ability to run 100% electric.

I thimk it’s very appropriate to have a table that includes both since many EV buyers will be considering  both types of EV.  The table delineates EV versus total range after all...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on June 11, 2018, 12:06:15 pm
PHEVs are crap that OEMs push out to paint themselves and their old ICE tech green.
But yes, they are kind of "useable" "EVs", but I wouldn't call a vehicle with 20 miles range in electric mode or less an "EV".
For me it's simply not an option, especially at the actual markup prices, it makes no sense to charge that battery with an ICE.
The model 3 is the clear winner today on the price/range category. No contest.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 11, 2018, 12:23:33 pm
PHEVs are crap that OEMs push out to paint themselves green.

That sounds like a politically motivated and emotional view, not one based on the facts

The fact is, that I and thousands of others are driving our PHEVs daily and averaging over 200mpg in them, yet are able drive anywhere, any distance, anytime, if desired, without any concern about where to charge or any type of “range anxiety”. And I’ve already saved thousands in fuel costs.

While some of the early  PHEVs had laughingly small all electric ranges, most now have ranges in the 20-50 mile sweet spot that encompasses the vast majority of most peoples daily driving.

I dive my Volt daily, yet only burn gas in it perhaps one a month on a longer trip.

With the current gasoline centered refueling infrastructure, PHEVs make perfect sense for most people and are a good stepping stone on the way to an eventual all electric EV world.

Don’t get me wrong, i think EVs (or possibly horses ;) ) will be the primary mode of personal transportation eventually, it’s just that for now, PHEVs make a lot if sense for many people.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 11, 2018, 12:31:29 pm
The model 3 is the clear winner today on the price/range category. No contest.

I’d say that the Chevy Bolt, with it’s significantly lower price, yet respectable 238 mile range, is the winner on that metric for now.

It’s true that the original “base” model 3 is slated to be slightly cheaper (and lower range) than the Bolt, but are they even producing the low end Model 3 in any quantity yet? (Not yet apparently. (http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-hints-at-when-base-model-3-will-arrive-2018-5))
 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 11, 2018, 12:53:40 pm
PHEVs are crap that OEMs push out to paint themselves and their old ICE tech green.

EVs are the crap Tesla pushes out to paint themselves as greener than green. Who cares, you can't depend on an EV that you know for sure that sooner or later is going to let you stranded somewhere with a flat battery and no plug to recharge in miles around, unlike ICEs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 11, 2018, 12:57:22 pm
PHEVs are EVs. They are serial hybrids which have the ability to run 100% electric.
I thimk it’s very appropriate to have a table that includes both since many EV buyers will be considering  both types of EV.  The table delineates EV versus total range after all... 
They are per definition not EV's since they stil burn fossil fuel, a very very big difference.
The problem in our country is that almost 90% of the lease drivers with a hybrid never ever charge their battery thus it becomes a 100% fossil fuel powered vehicle, although with better efficiency.
I don't think any EV with a maximum range of 20-30 miles would ever been sold with the exception of those elderly/disabled transportation vehicles.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 11, 2018, 01:02:13 pm
I’d say that the Chevy Bolt, with it’s significantly lower price, yet respectable 238 mile range, is the winner on that metric for now.
:-// depends what you are comparing since GM looses 7,4-9k$ per sold car 1+2.
Tesla also looses money no idea how much per car, difficult to compare but for sure no company can sustain this with massproduction numbers.


1http://gmauthority.com/blog/2017/06/ubs-gm-probably-loses-about-7400-per-chevrolet-bolt-ev/ (http://gmauthority.com/blog/2017/06/ubs-gm-probably-loses-about-7400-per-chevrolet-bolt-ev/)
2https://electrek.co/2016/11/30/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-loss-before-zev-credit/ (https://electrek.co/2016/11/30/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-loss-before-zev-credit/)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 11, 2018, 01:06:40 pm
PHEVs are EVs. They are serial hybrids which have the ability to run 100% electric.
I thimk it’s very appropriate to have a table that includes both since many EV buyers will be considering  both types of EV.  The table delineates EV versus total range after all... 
They are per definition not EV's since they stil burn fossil fuel, a very very big difference.
The problem in our country is that almost 90% of the lease drivers with a hybrid never ever charge their battery thus it becomes a 100% fossil fuel powered vehicle, although with better efficiency.
I don't think any EV with a maximum range of 20-30 miles would ever been sold with the exception of those elderly/disabled transportation vehicles.

Serial hybrids are EVs per definition. EVs with a backup fossil-fuel generator. The best of both worlds.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 11, 2018, 01:11:30 pm
They are per definition not EV's since they stil burn fossil fuel,

I don’t think you understand how most PHEVs work. I can and have driven my Volt for weeks without any gasoline in the tank. The ICE is there only to produce electricity if needed.

By your definition almost all battery only EVs would not qualify since almost all of them will be having their batteries charged by fossil fuel derived grid power. IOW they burn fossil fuel now as well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 11, 2018, 01:29:25 pm
It is purely a question of definition but since they use different terms for the beasts namely PHEV vs EV says it all IMO.
They are not the same.
The end goal is to create an EV which does not consume fossil fuels with a range that is sufficient to replace ICE's.
That technology is not far enough (esp battery tech) to reach those goals and that we go for hybrid solutions in the meanwhile is a seperate issue.
But for the same definition you could call a hybrid an ICE since it has an internal combustion engine, take it out and you have an EV with a range of 20 miles  ;)

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 11, 2018, 01:34:58 pm
Put in the trunk of a Model S a generator and it becomes a Plug-able Hybrid Electric Vehicle.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 11, 2018, 01:36:01 pm
I don’t think you understand how most PHEVs work. I can and have driven my Volt for weeks without any gasoline in the tank. The ICE is there only to produce electricity if needed.
Then you indeed use it as an EV.

Quote
By your definition almost all battery only EVs would not qualify since almost all of them will be having their batteries charged by fossil fuel derived grid power. IOW they burn fossil fuel now as well.
Question of time since the energy is more and more generated from cleaner sources and sources with other (storage) problems (nuclear pp's).

But hey I am still driving an ICE, last week for 0km since I bike 10kms to and from work  ;)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 11, 2018, 01:53:03 pm
What kind of metric is Price per kWh??????????????????????????????

kWh tells you something about the car, no?

(size of the battery)


But it's referring to the price of the car, not the running cost per kWh. Look at the values! The price of the car is more than just the cost of the battery. You could - at a stretch - estimate total cost of ownership but it would be meaningless. I can have a Pinto and a Bentley with the same size battery and range. Obviously the price per kWh for the Pinto would be a lot, lot less. It's a silly metric. It would be like comparing gas tank sizes.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on June 11, 2018, 05:57:16 pm
Put in the trunk of a Model S a generator and it becomes a Plug-able Hybrid Electric Vehicle.
I wonder if Musk would ever cooperate with a third party to make that possible without some fragile hacks.

Ariel is getting close to launching their P40 with a 35 kW microturbine, you wouldn't even need the entire trunk ... and 35 kW is enough to charge the battery at highway speeds.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 11, 2018, 06:03:52 pm
Put in the trunk of a Model S a generator and it becomes a Plug-able Hybrid Electric Vehicle.
I wonder if Musk would ever cooperate with a third party to make that possible without some fragile hacks.
Of course not because it's a step backwards. Not to say, I doubt there is a market for this.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 11, 2018, 06:07:04 pm
Of course not because it's a step backwards.

Why is it a step backwards?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on June 11, 2018, 08:02:46 pm
Why is it a step backwards?
True, it's not just a step backwards. it's running in the wrong direction for an hour at least.
Because you would need to stop and fire the strange engine to charge veeery slooowly with that damn loud ICE, need to stop taking stinking gas, and have no real trunk left.
There's really no point in putting a range extender on a car that has excellent range and the best fast charging network.
If you want that, buy an ICE, not an EV.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on June 13, 2018, 11:53:38 pm
PHEVs are crap that OEMs push out to paint themselves and their old ICE tech green.

EVs are the crap Tesla pushes out to paint themselves as greener than green. Who cares, you can't depend on an EV that you know for sure that sooner or later is going to let you stranded somewhere with a flat battery and no plug to recharge in miles around, unlike ICEs.

Meh, put it back in your pants. 5 year Model S driver here.  Never been stranded, not even close. And, I've never heard of anyone being stranded other than that NYT writer that deliberately bricked a loaner model S by ignoring the car saying "plug me in soon" in multiple ways.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 14, 2018, 06:31:06 am
PHEVs are crap that OEMs push out to paint themselves and their old ICE tech green.

EVs are the crap Tesla pushes out to paint themselves as greener than green. Who cares, you can't depend on an EV that you know for sure that sooner or later is going to let you stranded somewhere with a flat battery and no plug to recharge in miles around, unlike ICEs.

Meh, put it back in your pants. 5 year Model S driver here.  Never been stranded, not even close. And, I've never heard of anyone being stranded other than that NYT writer that deliberately bricked a loaner model S by ignoring the car saying "plug me in soon" in multiple ways.

There are many stores of Tesla car owners in California getting stranded or days at Lake Tahoe after a storm knocked out the power.  And at Christmas time Tesla owners drove to an outlet mall that only had two charge kept Tesla car owners waiting for hours to get a charge so they could make the trip back home.

And let’s not forget it takes Tesla drivers many hours longer to make the trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco because they keep having to stop to get recharged.  And if power is knocked out they are stranded.  Or if others are charging when they arrive they will have to wait even logger to get a charge.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 14, 2018, 08:40:07 am
Meh, put it back in your pants. 5 year Model S driver here.  Never been stranded, not even close.

That's because most EV owners have a good old ICE too and choose wisely before going out on long trips.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 14, 2018, 09:15:07 am
And let’s not forget it takes Tesla drivers many hours longer to make the trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco because they keep having to stop to get recharged. 

"Hours"? Citation needed.

And ... you're conveniently ignoring all the trips made to gas stations by everybody while Tesla owners are filling up at home.

You don't want a Tesla? Don't buy one!

But wahat's your motivation for going around telling Tesla owners they've made an imaginary mistake? Sounds to me like you be hatin'.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 14, 2018, 09:34:38 am
And let’s not forget it takes Tesla drivers many hours longer to make the trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco because they keep having to stop to get recharged.
Hours? One 30 minute stop at supercharger is enough to get from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Don't say that you won't make any stops with ICE car to fill the gas tank and to dump waste at gas station.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 14, 2018, 10:43:16 am
Lol, yeah, it's hate speech...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VC74t7fubk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VC74t7fubk)

Meanwhile for long trips "away from civilization" better drop a generator in the trunk, just in case.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 14, 2018, 11:53:23 am
And let’s not forget it takes Tesla drivers many hours longer to make the trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco because they keep having to stop to get recharged.
Hours? One 30 minute stop at supercharger is enough to get from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Don't say that you won't make any stops with ICE car to fill the gas tank and to dump waste at gas station.
But that takes a few minutes at maximum. Even less when only changing driver.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 14, 2018, 12:36:40 pm
And let’s not forget it takes Tesla drivers many hours longer to make the trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco because they keep having to stop to get recharged.
Hours? One 30 minute stop at supercharger is enough to get from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Don't say that you won't make any stops with ICE car to fill the gas tank and to dump waste at gas station.
But that takes a few minutes at maximum. Even less when only changing driver.
First of all, not a few minutes. Filling gas and dumping shit will take a bit more. Secondly, good luck driving 600 km with only a few minutes stop. Sure you can do that, the question is if you want to do so. Not to say, you likely will want to eat something as well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 14, 2018, 12:39:47 pm
Dear Tesla fanboys, for your info:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCA5pInfPpM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCA5pInfPpM)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 14, 2018, 12:47:29 pm
Dear Tesla fanboys, for your info:
Please stop polluting this thread with off-topic and off-topic+political videos.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 14, 2018, 12:48:31 pm
And let’s not forget it takes Tesla drivers many hours longer to make the trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco because they keep having to stop to get recharged.
Hours? One 30 minute stop at supercharger is enough to get from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Don't say that you won't make any stops with ICE car to fill the gas tank and to dump waste at gas station.
But that takes a few minutes at maximum. Even less when only changing driver.
First of all, not a few minutes. Filling gas and dumping shit will take a bit more. Secondly, good luck driving 600 km with only a few minutes stop. Sure you can do that, the question is if you want to do so. Not to say, you likely will want to eat something as well.
I don't need to shit & eat all day (I'm not a cow). A breakfast and dinner is enough. Travelling 600km takes about 5 to 6 hours so there is more than enough time to do the driving between shitting & eating. Experience has taught me to stay clear from restaurants along the road anyway so we plan dinners around that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 14, 2018, 01:03:45 pm
I don't need to shit & eat all day (I'm not a cow). A breakfast and dinner is enough. Travelling 600km takes about 5 to 6 hours so there is more than enough time to do the driving. Experience has taught me to stay clear from restaurants along the road anyway so we plan dinners around that.
Talk for yourself. Average people won't miss their lunch just to arrive to destination 10 minutes earlier. Even if you take food with yourself, you are not supposed to eat while driving but if you do, hello Tesla autopilot. Also as you are living in Netherlands, I have my doubts you have to drive anywhere further than 200-300 km.
BTW check some EU laws https://www.gov.uk/drivers-hours/eu-rules (https://www.gov.uk/drivers-hours/eu-rules). Sure this is not applicable to personal car, but says something.
Quote
a break or breaks totalling at least 45 minutes after no more than 4 hours 30 minutes driving
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 14, 2018, 01:11:51 pm
Dear Tesla fanboys, for your info:
Just don't forget that trains and ships have electric motors. Diesel is for generating electricity only. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel%E2%80%93electric_transmission (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel%E2%80%93electric_transmission)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 14, 2018, 01:51:23 pm
And that, in spite of 300+ years of industrial development, 90% of the world's electricity is still generated by boiling water :)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 14, 2018, 01:54:14 pm
I don't need to shit & eat all day (I'm not a cow). A breakfast and dinner is enough. Travelling 600km takes about 5 to 6 hours so there is more than enough time to do the driving. Experience has taught me to stay clear from restaurants along the road anyway so we plan dinners around that.
Talk for yourself. Average people won't miss their lunch just to arrive to destination 10 minutes earlier. Even if you take food with yourself, you are not supposed to eat while driving but if you do, hello Tesla autopilot. Also as you are living in Netherlands, I have my doubts you have to drive anywhere further than 200-300 km.
BTW check some EU laws https://www.gov.uk/drivers-hours/eu-rules (https://www.gov.uk/drivers-hours/eu-rules). Sure this is not applicable to personal car, but says something.
We drive 600 to 800 km per day regulary on trips across Europe and with two drivers each can have more than enough rest before driving again (I usually take a nap). You can theorize any way you want but in reality waiting / pausing for 40 to 60 minutes along the road just takes time away for doing something useful, dinner and/or sleep. If you want to go from A to B quickly make sure to start with a full stomage, eat a candy bar (like a Snickers) in the afternoon and have dinner at the destination. Been there, done that many times.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 14, 2018, 02:29:49 pm
We drive 600 to 800 km per day regulary on trips across Europe and with two drivers each can have more than enough rest before driving again (I usually take a nap).
Then please say how typical is having 2 drivers to avoid having a rest in the middle of the trip?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 14, 2018, 02:33:51 pm
2 drivers is typical on holidays but not resting at all is a bit strange. Everyone gets tired and wants to stretch their legs or go to the toilet, I wonder how the drivers change seats when not stopping  :)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 14, 2018, 03:33:39 pm
Everyone gets tired and wants to stretch their legs or go to the toilet, I wonder how the drivers change seats when not stopping  :)
I never wrote that. However going to the toilet or just swapping drivers only takes a very short stop. And how can you get tired from sitting/sleeping in a comfortable car?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on June 14, 2018, 04:37:20 pm
Meh, put it back in your pants. 5 year Model S driver here.  Never been stranded, not even close.

That's because most EV owners have a good old ICE too and choose wisely before going out on long trips.
facts or speculation.  I don't have an ICE to "back me up".  Still never been stranded. Quit making up shit. And those "power out events" also affect ICEs since gas stations need electricity for their pumps.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 14, 2018, 05:06:28 pm
Meh, put it back in your pants. 5 year Model S driver here.  Never been stranded, not even close.

That's because most EV owners have a good old ICE too and choose wisely before going out on long trips.
facts or speculation.  I don't have an ICE to "back me up".  Still never been stranded. Quit making up shit. And those "power out events" also affect ICEs since gas stations need electricity for their pumps.
Most EV owners don't have a car with the range of a Tesla. They have something like a Leaf. The Leaf does seem popular as a second car for a family, and its range is a good match for that application. I doubt its very common for both cars in a 2 car family to be making a long trip on the same day.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: gildasd on June 14, 2018, 05:18:13 pm
We drive 600 to 800 km per day regulary on trips across Europe and with two drivers each can have more than enough rest before driving again (I usually take a nap).
Then please say how typical is having 2 drivers to avoid having a rest in the middle of the trip?
With two kids, 400km, then an hour stop then 300km is the absolute max we can do.
I drive relaxed, so i actually reach constructors ranges in ICE cars, so an 85 or 90kwh Tesla S would actually cover my needs.
I had a coworker with a 75 S who would get way over 400kmh on a charge, but that’s Antwerp traffic for you, 60kmh average on the motorway...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 14, 2018, 05:19:19 pm
Meh, put it back in your pants. 5 year Model S driver here.  Never been stranded, not even close.

That's because most EV owners have a good old ICE too and choose wisely before going out on long trips.
facts or speculation.  I don't have an ICE to "back me up".  Still never been stranded. Quit making up shit. And those "power out events" also affect ICEs since gas stations need electricity for their pumps.
Most EV owners don't have a car with the range of a Tesla. They have something like a Leaf. The Leaf does seem popular as a second car for a family, and its range is a good match for that application. I doubt its very common for both cars in a 2 car family to be making a long trip on the same day.
The claim confronted was particularly about Tesla drivers being stranded and spending multiple hours in charging to drive 600km. As of Nissan Leaf, there are more Tesla cars sold than those. Production of Tesla is also ramping up hugely right now.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 14, 2018, 05:27:42 pm
But that takes a few minutes at maximum. Even less when only changing driver.

"Only changing driver"?  :-DD   :-DD  :-DD

Sounds like somebody needs an autopilot.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 15, 2018, 12:35:24 am
And let’s not forget it takes Tesla drivers many hours longer to make the trip from Los Angeles to San Francisco because they keep having to stop to get recharged.
Hours? One 30 minute stop at supercharger is enough to get from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Don't say that you won't make any stops with ICE car to fill the gas tank and to dump waste at gas station.

Not according to Tesla owners.  They have to make multiple stops for that trips and they can be screwed if there’s an accident or road work with a detour.   
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 15, 2018, 12:42:07 am
I'm curious and couldn't find any useful information online - what's the hit on range for an EV if you take a 3-hour trip in the southern US in the middle of the summer while running the A/C (typically 100% of the time)? Or heating the car in the depths of winter in the mid-West?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 15, 2018, 08:56:08 am
Not according to Tesla owners.  They have to make multiple stops for that trips and they can be screwed if there’s an accident or road work with a detour.

Evidence? Doug doesn't need no pesky evidence.  :-DD
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 15, 2018, 10:00:33 am
I'm curious and couldn't find any useful information online - what's the hit on range for an EV if you take a 3-hour trip in the southern US in the middle of the summer while running the A/C (typically 100% of the time)? Or heating the car in the depths of winter in the mid-West?

An A/C eats a few kW times 3h say 9kWh at least which is about 50km of range at hypermiling speeds.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on June 15, 2018, 06:53:47 pm
I'm curious and couldn't find any useful information online - what's the hit on range for an EV if you take a 3-hour trip in the southern US in the middle of the summer while running the A/C (typically 100% of the time)? Or heating the car in the depths of winter in the mid-West?

Cooling is a very small hit on range, maybe a percent or two. Winter heating is much worse - I think heap pumps are being phased in so that may change. Also, the battery when cold delivers less power. Figure a 10-20% hit in cold weather. The way EV owners think about it is Watt Hours per mile.  In summer I get 305-315 Wh/mile, in winter, 340-350 though winters here are reasonably mild.  By the way, ICEs also see winter efficiency loss but people don't seem to care (or simply ignore because it doesn't support their arguments).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 15, 2018, 07:38:08 pm
In summer I get 305-315 Wh/mile, in winter, 340-350 though winters here are reasonably mild.  By the way, ICEs also see winter efficiency loss but people don't seem to care
People don't have to care because it doesn't affect the range so much and filling up only takes a few minutes anyway. The latter is very nice during the winter. Imagine standing here for 20 minutes or more while waiting for your car to charge when it is freezing with a strong wind:
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=457000;image)
For the owner I hope the heating also works during charging on an EV.
By the way: I've never seen these charging stations in use so the car in the picture is probably lost or photoshopped into the picture.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 15, 2018, 08:07:13 pm
Cooling is a very small hit on range, maybe a percent or two.

Lol, no way! Who are you trying to fool? 1..2% of 15..20 kWh/100km is 150..400 watts ! What A/C is that? To the Tesla fanboys: take it easy. Your cars are cool. No need to lie.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 15, 2018, 09:08:11 pm
Well...an average summer high temp of 73F in Seattle and a low of 36F in January is wee bit different to an average summer high of 90F and January low of 30F in central North Carolina. I'm surprised the A/C is even on :)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 15, 2018, 09:15:06 pm
Not in Texas or Miami that's for sure :-)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 15, 2018, 10:22:52 pm
In the summer the AC will be a factor.
In the winter the electrical heater will be a factor, no combustion no hot motor coolingwater to heat the interior  ;)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 16, 2018, 01:40:33 am
I'm curious and couldn't find any useful information online - what's the hit on range for an EV if you take a 3-hour trip in the southern US in the middle of the summer while running the A/C (typically 100% of the time)? Or heating the car in the depths of winter in the mid-West?


I saw a post from someone.  In the cold there's a 10 to 15% decrease in range due to batteries being cold.  With the heater running subtract another 5 to 12%.  No sure about air-conditioning.  I suspect it would be about the same or a little more.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 16, 2018, 02:17:55 am
Not according to Tesla owners.  They have to make multiple stops for that trips and they can be screwed if there’s an accident or road work with a detour.

Evidence? Doug doesn't need no pesky evidence.  :-DD


There is ample evidence, if you would just read it.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on June 16, 2018, 03:23:28 am
Well...an average summer high temp of 73F in Seattle and a low of 36F in January is wee bit different to an average summer high of 90F and January low of 30F in central North Carolina. I'm surprised the A/C is even on :)

There is still solar gain and cars get plenty hot inside. Today the high was 68F, my car hit 95F inside while parked for an hour in the sun. AC is always on when it's above about 60F outside.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: phil from seattle on June 16, 2018, 03:24:24 am
I'm curious and couldn't find any useful information online - what's the hit on range for an EV if you take a 3-hour trip in the southern US in the middle of the summer while running the A/C (typically 100% of the time)? Or heating the car in the depths of winter in the mid-West?

An A/C eats a few kW times 3h say 9kWh at least which is about 50km of range at hypermiling speeds.

You keep making stuff up.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 16, 2018, 03:33:23 am
Well...an average summer high temp of 73F in Seattle and a low of 36F in January is wee bit different to an average summer high of 90F and January low of 30F in central North Carolina. I'm surprised the A/C is even on :)

There is still solar gain and cars get plenty hot inside. Today the high was 68F, my car hit 95F inside while parked for an hour in the sun. AC is always on when it's above about 60F outside.

I must say that's a hard pill to swallow. I lived half my life in a climate every bit as miserable as the northwestern US (yes, England) and I never once came across a car with AC. On those rare balmy days in August every other 5th year, you might wind (with a handle) your windows down but that's about it. Did you emigrate from the North Pole and drive a double-glazed greenhouse on wheels? :)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on June 16, 2018, 04:19:40 am
My experience so far (I've only had the eGolf  6 weeks now).

AC and heating appear to eat about 2kw, which means given I have about 220km range normally, or about 2 hrs at highway speeds on a 35kWh battery, It would mean with the heater or AC on, I'd drop to a 31kWh battery, and lose about 12% range.  I can live with that.

Having the car automatically set the temperature before you go to work and come home is pretty damn awesome.  This time of year theres not much to do in the morning, but in the evening having the AC auto come on before you get to is pretty cool.




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 16, 2018, 04:41:44 am
My experience so far (I've only had the eGolf  6 weeks now).

AC and heating appear to eat about 2kw, which means given I have about 220km range normally, or about 2 hrs at highway speeds on a 35kWh battery, It would mean with the heater or AC on, I'd drop to a 31kWh battery, and lose about 12% range.  I can live with that.

Having the car automatically set the temperature before you go to work and come home is pretty damn awesome.  This time of year theres not much to do in the morning, but in the evening having the AC auto come on before you get to is pretty cool.

It will be interesting to see in the winter when the batteries are colder how much your mileage will decrease. 

Your numbers are pretty much match what others are reporting. 

Now that you have a EV, will you ever buy a ICE ever again?




Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 16, 2018, 07:38:23 am
AC and heating appear to eat about 2kw, which means given I have about 220km range normally, or about 2 hrs at highway speeds on a 35kWh battery, It would mean with the heater or AC on, I'd drop to a 31kWh battery, and lose about 12% range.  I can live with that.

In a hot and humid place like say, Miami, it would be quite a bit more than 2kW, I would say al least 2x that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 16, 2018, 08:53:29 am
Imagine standing here for 20 minutes or more while waiting for your car to charge when it is freezing with a strong wind:
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=457000;image)

Yep. There's no way you could sit in the heated car watching Youtube while it's charging.

There's also no way they could build a charging station with walls in cold places - electron fumes are very dangerous if they build up in enclosed spaces.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 16, 2018, 08:55:03 am
Evidence? Doug doesn't need no pesky evidence.  :-DD
There is ample evidence, if you would just read it.

It just can't be linked to for copyright reasons, right?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 16, 2018, 08:57:06 am
I must say that's a hard pill to swallow. I lived half my life in a climate every bit as miserable as the northwestern US (yes, England) and I never once came across a car with AC.

Yep. That's the Brits for you.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 16, 2018, 08:58:26 am
In a hot and humid place like say, Miami, it would be quite a bit more than 2kW, I would say al least 2x that.

Surely it depends on how well insulated the car is. Have you got any actual measurements?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on June 16, 2018, 08:43:37 pm
In a hot and humid place like say, Miami, it would be quite a bit more than 2kW, I would say al least 2x that.

Surely it depends on how well insulated the car is. Have you got any actual measurements?
Not just insulation. If you are using fresh air and that has to be cooled and it takes more energy for moist air. 

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on June 17, 2018, 06:52:51 am
AC and heating appear to eat about 2kw, which means given I have about 220km range normally, or about 2 hrs at highway speeds on a 35kWh battery, It would mean with the heater or AC on, I'd drop to a 31kWh battery, and lose about 12% range.  I can live with that.

In a hot and humid place like say, Miami, it would be quite a bit more than 2kW, I would say al least 2x that.

A window shaker AC that plugs into a regular outlet, that can cool a 10x10' room only uses 1200W, I'm pretty sure a 5x6' car interior will be fine using 2kW
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 17, 2018, 07:31:30 am
A window shaker AC that plugs into a regular outlet, that can cool a 10x10' room only uses 1200W, I'm pretty sure a 5x6' car interior will be fine using 2kW

You say that because you're up there in the north in Canada. Also a car's cabin isn't like a room it's much more like a greenhouse. And cars' A/Cs have to be plenty powerful because one wants it to cool quick when the car has been parked in the sun in Texas and the cabin is at more than 55 degrees C. Then there's also hot humid places where the energy required to cool one more degree increases because turning the air's water vapour into liquid water is exothermic and robs quite a bunch of energy and leaves the evaporator wet which makes it less efficient.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 17, 2018, 01:07:23 pm
AC and heating appear to eat about 2kw, which means given I have about 220km range normally, or about 2 hrs at highway speeds on a 35kWh battery, It would mean with the heater or AC on, I'd drop to a 31kWh battery, and lose about 12% range.  I can live with that.

In a hot and humid place like say, Miami, it would be quite a bit more than 2kW, I would say al least 2x that.

A window shaker AC that plugs into a regular outlet, that can cool a 10x10' room only uses 1200W, I'm pretty sure a 5x6' car interior will be fine using 2kW
Wikipedia says 3kW https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile_air_conditioning (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile_air_conditioning) with a reference to a scientific report.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 17, 2018, 02:59:13 pm
Evidence? Doug doesn't need no pesky evidence.  :-DD
There is ample evidence, if you would just read it.

It just can't be linked to for copyright reasons, right?

Or you could open a browser and type “Tesla LA to SF”.  But then agin maybe you can’t.  Give it a try and try something new.  You might learn something. 

Try adding hwy 5  and hwy 101.   But don’t try Hg 1 because only way a Tesla could get from LA to SF is with a tow truck.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 17, 2018, 03:23:25 pm
Wikipedia says 3kW https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile_air_conditioning (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile_air_conditioning) with a reference to a scientific report.

Ah come on now. I know you’re an engineer. That link is talking about the power required by an ICE to produce AC. An ICE is what, 20% efficient.?   
Here’s the quote: “In a modern automobile, the A/C system will use around 4 horsepower (3 kW) of the engine's power, thus increasing fuel consumption of the vehicle.”

Which just proves the point, AC will reduce an ICEs autos range as well, but in a much less efficient manner.

BTW , both my Volt and my wife’s Chrysler Pacifica PHEV, use less than 2kW to run the AC. I’ll take a screenshot next time I get a chance.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 17, 2018, 03:33:39 pm
Aircons take energy at a rate determined by the climate and not your driving. So, a high speed motorway journey between cities doesn't use a huge amount of energy for the aircon, as the journey doesn't last long. Get stuck in traffic, and its a different story.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 17, 2018, 03:36:09 pm
Wikipedia says 3kW https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile_air_conditioning (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile_air_conditioning) with a reference to a scientific report.

Ah come on now. I know you’re an engineer. That link is talking about the power required by an ICE to produce AC. An ICE is what, 20% efficient.?   
Here’s the quote: “In a modern automobile, the A/C system will use around 4 horsepower (3 kW) of the engine's power, thus increasing fuel consumption of the vehicle.”

Which just proves the point, AC will reduce an ICEs autos range as well, but in a much less efficient manner.

BTW , both my Volt and my wife’s Chrysler Pacifica PHEV, use less than 2kW to run the AC. I’ll take a screenshot next time I get a chance.

Quoting a single average power consumption for 'a modern automobile' is iffy because it probably includes large pick-ups, SUVs, vans etc.

Shouldn't comparison also include these?

1. Cabin volume
2. AC efficiency (like SEER - don't know if that's used for automotive ACs)
3. Duty cycle. i.e., for a like-to-like journey under hot conditions does an EV AC stay on longer than for a comparable ICE AC (or vice versa) to maintain the same cabin temperature
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 17, 2018, 04:23:25 pm
Ah come on now. I know you’re an engineer. That link is talking about the power required by an ICE to produce AC. An ICE is what, 20% efficient.?   
[...]
BTW , both my Volt and my wife’s Chrysler Pacifica PHEV, use less than 2kW to run the AC. I’ll take a screenshot next time I get a chance.

I turn it on in my ICE and it uses ZERO watts when it's colder outside than the cabin set temp. Your EV's A/C, in the same situation, would be sucking kWs like crazy.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 17, 2018, 04:29:36 pm
Wikipedia says 3kW https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile_air_conditioning (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobile_air_conditioning) with a reference to a scientific report.
Ah come on now. I know you’re an engineer. That link is talking about the power required by an ICE to produce AC. An ICE is what, 20% efficient.?   
Here’s the quote: “In a modern automobile, the A/C system will use around 4 horsepower (3 kW) of the engine's power, thus increasing fuel consumption of the vehicle.”

Which just proves the point, AC will reduce an ICEs autos range as well, but in a much less efficient manner.

BTW , both my Volt and my wife’s Chrysler Pacifica PHEV, use less than 2kW to run the AC. I’ll take a screenshot next time I get a chance.
You are rambling. The link says an AC on a car needs  typically 3kW (mechanical or electrical) to operate based on a scientific report. Why the hell go raving on about efficiencies? That it not the subject at all. And I really don't care about your car and your special case. It is besides the point. However it is logical that due to circumstances and type of AC some ACs in cars will need more power and some will need less. I shouldn't need to have to explain that. The report probably has some numbers on what kind of spread there is in AC power usage.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 17, 2018, 04:40:22 pm
So your contention is that the energy efficiency of AC production from gasoline burned in an ICE is the same or better than the efficiency of AC production from a Lithium battery pack? THAT is the issue my ”raving” addressed.  Nothing more.

My “special case” was just a BTW - adding a data point to the discussion - that’s all. Obviously many factors affect this.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 17, 2018, 04:50:34 pm
So your contention is that the energy efficiency of AC production from gasoline burned in an ICE is the same or better than the efficiency of AC production from a Lithium battery pack? THAT is the issue my ”raving” addressed.  Nothing more.
That wasn't the topic of the discussion. What people where wondering about is how the AC will reduce the range of an EV. Given the fact that an EV carries much less energy with it the answer is 'a significant amount because an AC typically uses 3kW'. Others already provided examples with numbers. And because an ICE based car carries way more energy and is quicker to fill up people really don't have to care about efficiency.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 17, 2018, 05:22:53 pm
So your contention is that the energy efficiency of AC production from gasoline burned in an ICE is the same or better than the efficiency of AC production from a Lithium battery pack? THAT is the issue my ”raving” addressed.  Nothing more.
That wasn't the topic of the discussion.
But  I was responding to your Wikipedia sourced figure.

Quote
because an AC typically uses 3kW'.
But we don’t know how much energy a modern EV  “typically” uses for AC. You have NOT provided a source documenting that. I and others first hand experience says it is much lower.

Quote
And because an ICE based car carries way more energy and is quicker to fill up people really don't have to care about efficiency.

Well yes, of course. They should care about efficiency, but most don’t. No one disputes that, do they?  Thermodynamics dictates that there is no free lunch. Nothing available to power a vehicle is going to have the energy density of gasoline. Not even close.

There will be a price to pay in terms of convenience for the inevitable transition from dirty, inefficient (yet convenient) ICE powered vehicles.  But it is happening anyways. It must.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on June 17, 2018, 06:25:18 pm
Well yes, of course. They should care about efficiency, but most don’t. No one disputes that, do they?  Thermodynamics dictates that there is no free lunch. Nothing available to power a vehicle is going to have the energy density of gasoline. Not even close.
Biodiesel actually has slightly more energy per gallon than gasoline does. Thus plug in hybrids can still have a place in a 100% fossil fuel free world. (I doubt it will ever get to 100% due to niche uses.)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 17, 2018, 07:03:58 pm
Well yes, of course. They should care about efficiency, but most don’t. No one disputes that, do they?  Thermodynamics dictates that there is no free lunch. Nothing available to power a vehicle is going to have the energy density of gasoline. Not even close.
Biodiesel actually has slightly more energy per gallon than gasoline does. Thus plug in hybrids can still have a place in a 100% fossil fuel free world. (I doubt it will ever get to 100% due to niche uses.)
It wouldn't surprise me that by the time EVs have decent range and are affordable (IOW: 20 to 30 years from now) all ICE cars run on (mostly) bio-fuel and EVs are a solution to a problem which no longer exists. Worse, electricity is likely to become scarse once we turn all the fossil and nuclear power plants off. Bio-fuel OTOH can replace fossil car fuels gradually and it doesn't take any investment from the car owner. A couple of days ago I linked to an article which clearly stated a lot of people will not be able to afford an EV even though governments have set goals that say a large amount of new cars sold should be EVs. At some point reality has to kick in.
OTOH production of bio-fuel has been increasing every year and is currently responsible for a major reduction in CO2 emissions (also due to governments requiring to add bio-fuel to fossil car fuels). On a global scale EVs don't even register for CO2 savings due to their small numbers.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 17, 2018, 09:07:10 pm
Biodiesel actually has slightly more energy per gallon than gasoline does.

I didn’t know that. Source?  In any case biodiesel requires large fossil fuel inputs to produce, so it is unlikely to be a long term solution.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 17, 2018, 09:25:09 pm
  In any case biodiesel requires large fossil fuel inputs to produce, so it is unlikely to be a long term solution.
You can say the same about solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 17, 2018, 09:56:30 pm
  In any case biodiesel requires large fossil fuel inputs to produce, so it is unlikely to be a long term solution.
You can say the same about solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc.
Solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc currently use quite a lot of fossil fuel in their construction. They don't require fossil fuels on an ongoing basis throughout their life. Every litre of biodiesel consumes a lot of fossil fuel in its production. So much that feeding some of the biodiesel back around the production loop, to be used instead of fossil fuels, doesn't currently work out well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 17, 2018, 10:06:10 pm
  In any case biodiesel requires large fossil fuel inputs to produce, so it is unlikely to be a long term solution.
You can say the same about solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc.
Solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc currently use quite a lot of fossil fuel in their construction. They don't require fossil fuels on an ongoing basis throughout their life. Every litre of biodiesel consumes a lot of fossil fuel in its production. So much that feeding some of the biodiesel back around the production loop, to be used instead of fossil fuels, doesn't currently work out well.
Currently... but there are more ways of making bio-fuel and it doesn't need to be diesel. Just as with solar and wind bio-fuel also needs kick starting to become profitable.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 17, 2018, 10:21:04 pm
  In any case biodiesel requires large fossil fuel inputs to produce, so it is unlikely to be a long term solution.
You can say the same about solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc.
Solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc currently use quite a lot of fossil fuel in their construction. They don't require fossil fuels on an ongoing basis throughout their life. Every litre of biodiesel consumes a lot of fossil fuel in its production. So much that feeding some of the biodiesel back around the production loop, to be used instead of fossil fuels, doesn't currently work out well.
Currently... but there are more ways of making bio-fuel and it doesn't need to be diesel. Just as with solar and wind bio-fuel also needs kick starting to become profitable.
What is needed to change bio-fuels to something more sustainable is some major technical breakthroughs. None of the current approaches are going to get us very far. If some of the current experimental work can be made efficient and scalable we might have direct sunlight to liquid fuel schemes in the future, which would solve the storage issues we see with most renewables today. However, this is mostly speculation right now.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 17, 2018, 10:34:24 pm
What is needed to change bio-fuels to something more sustainable is some major technical breakthroughs. None of the current approaches are going to get us very far. If some of the current experimental work can be made efficient and scalable we might have direct sunlight to liquid fuel schemes in the future, which would solve the storage issues we see with most renewables today. However, this is mostly speculation right now.
I beg to differ. There is a lot more going on than just lab experiments. I've already pointed towards Poet-DSM a couple of times who are making ethanol from plants (turning cellulose into ethanol) on an industrial scale. In Brazil about 50% of the fuel used is bio-fuel but they can use less efficient methods because they have large amounts of land and not so many people. IMHO Brazil is an interesting example of using bio-fuel because they use a gradual changeover approach which is affordable for the people and still results in a massive reduction of CO2 emissions.

Also the EU plans to ban crop based bio-fuels in 2021 but will continue to require fuel to have a minimum amount of bio-fuel mixed in. That further stimulates companies to come up with viable alternatives. The market for bio-fuel is already there waiting to be fulfilled.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on June 17, 2018, 10:37:14 pm
Aircons take energy at a rate determined by the climate and not your driving. So, a high speed motorway journey between cities doesn't use a huge amount of energy for the aircon, as the journey doesn't last long. Get stuck in traffic, and its a different story.
I just finished a trip in the western US that was 3700 miles.  It was high speed for the most part.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 17, 2018, 11:34:37 pm
  In any case biodiesel requires large fossil fuel inputs to produce, so it is unlikely to be a long term solution.
You can say the same about solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc.
Solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc currently use quite a lot of fossil fuel in their construction. They don't require fossil fuels on an ongoing basis throughout their life. Every litre of biodiesel consumes a lot of fossil fuel in its production. So much that feeding some of the biodiesel back around the production loop, to be used instead of fossil fuels, doesn't currently work out well.

Yes, true. Another difference is that the fossil fuel input to solar panels, batteries and windmill production could be eliminated eventually. Biofuel production in any meaningful quantity on the other hand, requires petrochemical inputs by its very nature.

Experimental biofuels, like improved batteries, thorium reactors, etc., are a dime a dozen and at this time are essentially vaporware on any useful scale.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ludzinc on June 17, 2018, 11:59:01 pm
  In any case biodiesel requires large fossil fuel inputs to produce, so it is unlikely to be a long term solution.
You can say the same about solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc.
Solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc currently use quite a lot of fossil fuel in their construction. They don't require fossil fuels on an ongoing basis throughout their life. Every litre of biodiesel consumes a lot of fossil fuel in its production. So much that feeding some of the biodiesel back around the production loop, to be used instead of fossil fuels, doesn't currently work out well.

Yes, true. Another difference is that the fossil fuel input to solar panels, batteries and windmill production could be eliminated eventually. Biofuel production in any meaningful quantity on the other hand, requires petrochemical inputs by its very nature.

Experimental biofuels, like improved batteries, thorium reactors, etc., are a dime a dozen and at this time are essentially vaporware on any useful scale.

Thorium reactors aren't biofuel.

As for vapourware?  Thorium reactors were a proven tech, a solved problem, in the 1960's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium-based_nuclear_power#United_States

Choice to use Uranium was based around plutonium production.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 18, 2018, 12:20:10 am
  In any case biodiesel requires large fossil fuel inputs to produce, so it is unlikely to be a long term solution.
You can say the same about solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc.
Solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc currently use quite a lot of fossil fuel in their construction. They don't require fossil fuels on an ongoing basis throughout their life. Every litre of biodiesel consumes a lot of fossil fuel in its production. So much that feeding some of the biodiesel back around the production loop, to be used instead of fossil fuels, doesn't currently work out well.

Yes, true. Another difference is that the fossil fuel input to solar panels, batteries and windmill production could be eliminated eventually. Biofuel production in any meaningful quantity on the other hand, requires petrochemical inputs by its very nature.
I'd like to see a source for that bold statement. I really don't see why you would need fossil fuels to create bio-fuels in the future. It simply doesn't make sense. After all fossil fuels are not a component of the end product. All what is needed is energy to run a process which converts plants (or whatever) into ethanol. Solar panels, wind turbines, etc also need energy to be manufactured.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 18, 2018, 01:12:14 am
Toyota is building the factory, Tesla semi is supposed to come with that battery technology.
These are not the new article, when Won Heng at the technical university of new bullshit has combined batteries and supercapacitors with lazers. It is the real deal.
My numbers are in the tesla semi thread. I'm not gonna repeat myself.
Toyota recently said they don't expect to have solid state batteries in the market until 2030.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 18, 2018, 04:47:04 am
  In any case biodiesel requires large fossil fuel inputs to produce, so it is unlikely to be a long term solution.
You can say the same about solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc.
Solar panels, EV batteries, wind turbines, etc currently use quite a lot of fossil fuel in their construction. They don't require fossil fuels on an ongoing basis throughout their life. Every litre of biodiesel consumes a lot of fossil fuel in its production. So much that feeding some of the biodiesel back around the production loop, to be used instead of fossil fuels, doesn't currently work out well.

Yes, true. Another difference is that the fossil fuel input to solar panels, batteries and windmill production could be eliminated eventually. Biofuel production in any meaningful quantity on the other hand, requires petrochemical inputs by its very nature.
I'd like to see a source for that bold statement. I really don't see why you would need fossil fuels to create bio-fuels in the future. It simply doesn't make sense. After all fossil fuels are not a component of the end product.

I didn’t say fossil fuels, I said petrochemicals- noy exactly the same. Chemical fertilzers and pesticides are petrochemicals required to produce the needed biomass yield for large quantities of biofuels. Just one example is the use of nat gas in the Haber-Bosch process used to produce nitrogen fertilizer. There are countless examples of pesticides in use that are derived from petrochemicals. And petrochemicals are used in the actual chemical production of the biofuel itself - for example, biodiesel production involves trans-esterification of vegetable oils and fats through the addition of methanol and a catalyst.

You could surely produce some types of biofuels in small amounts without petrochemicals, but never on the scale needed for widespread use.

Quote
Solar panels, wind turbines, etc also need energy to be manufactured.
Yes of course they do and I said so above.  The difference is that you could produce those with an entirely fossil fuel and petrochemical free process, IF that infrastructure was built. Initially, building that infrastructure would require large fossil fuel inputs, but once built it could in theory be maintained without fossil fuel or petrochemical input.  Unfortunately we have not developed that infrastructure and it’s likely too late now.  As I’ve said before on this forum, we’ve waited too long and as much as I’d love to see a day when our current standard of high energy living is maintained for the masses with an all electric, fossil fuel free technology, it ain’t gonna happen IMHO.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 18, 2018, 06:38:21 am
Evidence? Doug doesn't need no pesky evidence.  :-DD
There is ample evidence, if you would just read it.
It just can't be linked to for copyright reasons, right?
Or you could open a browser and type “Tesla LA to SF”.  But then agin maybe you can’t.  Give it a try and try something new.  You might learn something. 
Try adding hwy 5  and hwy 101.   But don’t try Hg 1 because only way a Tesla could get from LA to SF is with a tow truck.
and
b) I don't care because it's a strawman argument, like arguing that Ferraris are pointless because you can't get a sofa in the back.

If I spent my life transporting sofas I'd buy something suitable. If not, I'll enjoy my daily-drive Ferrari and rent a truck once in a while.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 18, 2018, 08:35:43 am
I didn’t say fossil fuels, I said petrochemicals- noy exactly the same. Chemical fertilzers and pesticides are petrochemicals required to produce the needed biomass yield for large quantities of biofuels. Just one example is the use of nat gas in the Haber-Bosch process used to produce nitrogen fertilizer. There are countless examples of pesticides in use that are derived from petrochemicals. And petrochemicals are used in the actual chemical production of the biofuel itself - for example, biodiesel production involves trans-esterification of vegetable oils and fats through the addition of methanol and a catalyst.

You could surely produce some types of biofuels in small amounts without petrochemicals, but never on the scale needed for widespread use.
Since when can't we use petrochemicals? I also doubt this becomes a problem because all these things are required to grow food (and leftovers to make bio-fuel from). Growing crops just for bio-fuel is heading towards the exit.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 18, 2018, 08:42:03 am
Since when can't we use petrochemicals? I also doubt this becomes a problem because all these things are required to grow food (and leftovers to make bio-fuel from). Growing crops just for bio-fuel is heading towards the exit.
Did you miss the "petro" part of petrochemicals? If we run out of coal and oil our entire process for feeding the 7 to 8 billion people now alive will be severely compromised.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 18, 2018, 10:16:45 am
Since when can't we use petrochemicals? I also doubt this becomes a problem because all these things are required to grow food (and leftovers to make bio-fuel from). Growing crops just for bio-fuel is heading towards the exit.
Did you miss the "petro" part of petrochemicals? If we run out of coal and oil our entire process for feeding the 7 to 8 billion people now alive will be severely compromised.
First of all there still is a huge amount of oil and even more coal sitting in the ground so I wouldn't worry about running out especially if we stop burning those. Secondly CO2 emissions don't have to go to zero to stop/reverse climate change. Thirdly I'm very sure someone will find a new process to make fertilizer. That process probably already exists but is not economically viable yet. Many processes which are in place today are the most economical ones given the sources. Change the sources and a different process will become more economical. If more parts of plants are used by turning them into bio-fuel then food prices won't even rise that much.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: NiHaoMike on June 18, 2018, 01:33:31 pm
Did you miss the "petro" part of petrochemicals? If we run out of coal and oil our entire process for feeding the 7 to 8 billion people now alive will be severely compromised.
And that's a good argument to replace fossil fuels with renewables where practical. As well as accelerate the development of sustainable agriculture.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 18, 2018, 01:46:01 pm
Or we all should start to shift our daily meals from plants that grow on the surface and needs sun and unsalted water which will also become scarce towards stuff that grows in the dark like mushrooms and other fungus. Mmmmmmm.  :(
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 18, 2018, 03:52:23 pm
California still has an enormous quantity of untapped fossil fuel.  While wind, solar and bio might provide some relief, there is so much oil still in the ground which can be extracted inexpensively.  Now sure if people are aware but in LA/So Cal there are oil derricks downtown which are discussed as building.   


The SF Bay Area has a rich supply of untapped oil.  When the price of oil drops, the smaller oil companies go out of business and the wells sit idle.


Hydrocarbon fuel is so energy dense the only fuel which can and has repalced it has been nuclear.  The two modes of transportation which nuclear, solar, wind, and bio can not replace hydrocarbon fules are rocekts and airplanes.  We had nuclear powered aircraft, but we found hydrocarbon fuel was far safer for the crew and passenegers.

Bottom line, solar, wind, batteries  and bio just don't have the energy density of hydrocarbons and nuclear.  Only way to chage that is to change the laws of physics.





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 18, 2018, 04:09:52 pm
The two modes of transportation which nuclear, solar, wind, and bio can not replace hydrocarbon fules are rocekts and airplanes.
Wrong when it comes to airplanes. There have been many test flights already with large airplanes which run on bio fuel (oddly enough each test claims to be the first  :palm: ).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 18, 2018, 04:20:34 pm
Gentlemen, we have been the privileged. The fossil fuels era is going to end soon, and it will have been a blip in the history of mankind. Enjoy while it lasts.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 18, 2018, 05:02:13 pm
California still has an enormous quantity of untapped fossil fuel. While wind, solar and bio might provide some relief, there is so much oil still in the ground which can be extracted inexpensively.
Nonsense. Relative to consumption, California's oil reserves are trivial and rapidly declining (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_pres_dcu_SCA_a.htm). If it was fully tapped (unlkely), enough for only about 100 days of US consumption and only 20 days of Worldwide consumption.

Quote
Now sure if people are aware but in LA/So Cal there are oil derricks downtown which are discussed as building.   
Sure there's hundreds of ancient wells in So. Cal, some still trickling out wiffs of oil. Those wells were already mostly tapped out 50 years ago when I was a child growing up near them.   

Quote
The SF Bay Area has a rich supply of untapped oil.
  More nonsense.


Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 18, 2018, 05:22:56 pm
Biodiesel actually has slightly more energy per gallon than gasoline does.
I didn’t know that. Source?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_content_of_biofuel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 18, 2018, 05:35:27 pm
Gentlemen, we have been the privileged. The fossil fuels era is going to end soon, and it will have been a blip in the history of mankind. Enjoy while it lasts.

Yes. 

(https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/peak-ff-oil.png)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 18, 2018, 05:41:30 pm
Biodiesel actually has slightly more energy per gallon than gasoline does.
I didn’t know that. Source?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_content_of_biofuel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

Thanks for the link though according to that gasoline and biodiesel are more or less equivalent.  I wonder what the difference is in net energy, after one accounts for all the energy inputs required for production?   I now that the net energy in gasoline has been falling as the energy needed for oil extraction and refining has been rising.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 18, 2018, 05:52:57 pm
Gentlemen, we have been the privileged. The fossil fuels era is going to end soon, and it will have been a blip in the history of mankind. Enjoy while it lasts.

Yes. 

(https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/peak-ff-oil.png)
That drawing isn't to scale. The modern homo sapiens has been around for 200000 to 300000 years. It is reasonable to assume the question mark will be filled with nuclear power. Book printing and internet make it possible to work together and share technology as never before.

Besides that many societies have been using wind and water mills. For example the Romans used water mills to cut marble into wall tiles.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 18, 2018, 06:05:31 pm
Bottom line, solar, wind, batteries  and bio just don't have the energy density of hydrocarbons and nuclear.

So? Your point is...?


My point is that all the numbers we have at the moment indicate that the future cost of not replacing fossil fuels wherever possible could be immense.

Yes, there's a few places where it will be impossible to replace them (or at least very uneconomical). That doesn't mean there aren't a whole lot of areas where it's relatively cheap/easy to do. For most people, daily commuting is one of those areas.

Electric cars are coming, whether you like it or not. Even if battery tech doesn't improve quickly, renting something a couple of times a year when you plan to drive thousands of miles isn't anywhere near as horrible as you seem to think. It can actually be fun to have a different car for a while.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 18, 2018, 06:14:51 pm
All the fanboys sound like broken records. No need to shove the EVs down our throats just yet.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 18, 2018, 06:24:15 pm
[
That drawing isn't to scale.
  Well, yes. I think it is meant to be conceptual, not quantitative.

Quote
It is reasonable to assume the question mark will be filled with nuclear power.
Reasonable to you perhaps but not by most knowledgeable scientists and engineers I've read. For example (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/01/nuclear-options/).

Even if one accepts the premise that nuclear power could fully replace fossil fuels, it won't because of economic and political realities.  And there is an enormous amount of embedded fossil fuel energy in every nuclear power plant due to the sheer amount of concrete and other materials needed to build a safe plant.   This is why despite the recognized need and efforts to replace fossil fuels, nuclear power production peaked in 2006. We're in an Energy Trap (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/the-energy-trap/).

Quote
Book printing and internet make it possible to work together and share technology as never before.
  Yes, possible - If only it were so...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 18, 2018, 06:27:56 pm
Even if battery tech doesn't improve quickly, renting something a couple of times a year when you plan to drive thousands of miles isn't anywhere near as horrible as you seem to think.
Did you actually check the prices? I just did (similar to the car I own) and it would cost me 1400 euro to rent a car for 2 weeks to go on a holiday. For me it is cheaper to own an ICE based car. The annual depreciation on my car is less.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 18, 2018, 06:35:51 pm
Quote
It is reasonable to assume the question mark will be filled with nuclear power.
Reasonable to you perhaps but not by most knowledgeable scientists and engineers I've read. For example (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/01/nuclear-options/).
The error in the article is that it assumes nuclear energy is always based on Uranium. That is old technology. New technology is Thorium and later on nuclear fusion. For starters Thorium is as abundant as lead so it doesn't need as much mining effort compared to Uranium.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 18, 2018, 06:45:52 pm
All the fanboys sound like a broken record. No need to shove the EVs down our throats just yet.

Somebody's forcing you to read this? Holding a gun to your head to make you buy one...?

There's also no need to be, "Fossils or death!", or, "Nobody should have one!"

Accept that fossil fuels are a generally bad idea. Help to change things where you can. Drive the old gas guzzler as long as your conscience permits.

Also: Accept that some people are genuinely happy with their electric cars. A lot of them have more than one car and still choose the electric one for the daily commute. By choice! Go figure!!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 18, 2018, 06:46:58 pm
Quote
It is reasonable to assume the question mark will be filled with nuclear power.
Reasonable to you perhaps but not by most knowledgeable scientists and engineers I've read. For example (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/01/nuclear-options/).
The error in the article is that it assumes nuclear energy is always based on Uranium. That is old technology. New technology is Thorium and later on nuclear fusion. For starters Thorium is as abundant as lead so it doesn't need as much mining effort compared to Uranium.

Clearly you did not read the article. He talks about Thorium  See under "Fuel Options"
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 18, 2018, 06:57:30 pm
Quote
It is reasonable to assume the question mark will be filled with nuclear power.
Reasonable to you perhaps but not by most knowledgeable scientists and engineers I've read. For example (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/01/nuclear-options/).
The error in the article is that it assumes nuclear energy is always based on Uranium. That is old technology. New technology is Thorium and later on nuclear fusion. For starters Thorium is as abundant as lead so it doesn't need as much mining effort compared to Uranium.

Clearly you did not read the article. He talks about Thorium  See under "Fuel Options"
But still in the context of making and using Uranium so thinking old-tech. If you read about Thorium reactors then you'll learn that using Thorium makes more sense than Uranium because the waste doesn't stay radio active very long and the reactors are inherently safer.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 18, 2018, 07:04:37 pm
Quote
It is reasonable to assume the question mark will be filled with nuclear power.
Reasonable to you perhaps but not by most knowledgeable scientists and engineers I've read. For example (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/01/nuclear-options/).
The error in the article is that it assumes nuclear energy is always based on Uranium. That is old technology. New technology is Thorium and later on nuclear fusion. For starters Thorium is as abundant as lead so it doesn't need as much mining effort compared to Uranium.

Clearly you did not read the article. He talks about Thorium  See under "Fuel Options"
But still in the context of making and using Uranium so thinking old-tech. If you read about Thorium reactors then you'll learn that using Thorium makes more sense than Uranium because the waste doesn't stay radio active very long and the reactors are inherently safer.

No he has fully considered Thorium

Thorium has been touted as the future of nuclear power since the 1960s.   Decades later it is still in the R and D phase.  Why is that?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 18, 2018, 07:38:57 pm
Yes read about that they can't get the Thorium process under control, but they stopped R&D in favour for Uranium because of the sideproducts needed for nuclear weapons.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 18, 2018, 07:46:47 pm
In short, Thorium is a molten salt process that has yet never been run on a real scale, only small prototype labexperiments.
To exploit it on a nuclear power station level they need at least 40 years (estimation from nuclear power scientists).
Just a few problems:
- The salt is such a corrosive process that corrodes all materials, they need to find a suitable container that can also be easily and fast cleaned.
- To start the proces Uranium is needed but it needs to be evenly distributed in the molten salt something no-one knows how to do (yet).
- Due to the uranium the molten salt will be highly radioactive which complicates cleaning and removing more and still needs to be kept away from human beings for 240000 years, so the statement that Thorium is harmless after 300 years is true but they can't run the station without the Uranium starter so this makes it pointless yet again. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 18, 2018, 08:29:11 pm
Thorium has been touted as the future of nuclear power since the 1960s.   Decades later it is still in the R and D phase.  Why is that?
No research on thorium reactors has been done since the 1960, when politics caused the research to be cancelled. That's the complete explanation for why nothing has moved forward. The engineers who worked on Thorium reactor research have now all retired, so if the work is restarted there will surely be a lot of repeated work as a new generation of engineers relearn what has been forgotten. There appears to have been no technical reason for the work being cancelled. Like most things about energy from nuclear sources, if it didn't make plutonium for weapons it was hard to get research funding.

They had a nice tame research reactor with a few remaining issues at the time work was suspended. The reactor was so tame it was shut down every Friday evening and restarted the following Monday morning. From what is documented the key remaining issue seemed to be corrosion. There were proposals to fix that, which were not tested because of the cancellation.

A thorium reactor produces a lot less radioactive waste than a uranium reactor, as most of the thorium is used up. In a uranium reactor only 3% of the material gets used up. Thorium reactors would solve the perceived problem of China being a single source of rare earth metals. Rare earths stopped being mined in most places for an environmental reason - the large amount of thorium waste they would need to deal with. Turning thorium into a valuable resource would make several sources of rare earths because viable.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 18, 2018, 08:32:29 pm
In short, Thorium is a molten salt process that has yet never been run on a real scale, only small prototype labexperiments.
To exploit it on a nuclear power station level they need at least 40 years (estimation from nuclear power scientists).

40 years ... at current R&D budget levels.

What we really need is for governments to get involved. I'm sure that the USA could reduce that number a lot if they diverted (eg.) 10% of their military budget into energy research.

The military advantage of owning/running the worlds power generators has been thoroughly explored since at least the 1960s (eg. Asimov's "Foundation" books). That 10% diversion will be money well spent.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 18, 2018, 08:42:28 pm
Thorium has been touted as the future of nuclear power since the 1960s.   Decades later it is still in the R and D phase.  Why is that?
No research on thorium reactors has been done since the 1960, when politics caused the research to be cancelled. That's the complete explanation for why nothing has moved forward.

That's not true at all. Sure there was a period when research was not as extensive as it has been in the last 20 years,  but there has always been ongoing efforts.  See this for a list of the current multiple ongoing Thorium research projects ongoing in multiple countries. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium-based_nuclear_power)  And see here (http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/thorium.aspx) for a more complete history of past research projects.

I've been hearing these same kind of "Hopium" arguments about Thorium for years now.  I'm surprised to see it here.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 18, 2018, 08:54:25 pm
Thorium power is actually uranium power.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium)

Quote
Thorium cannot in itself power a reactor; unlike natural uranium, it does not contain enough fissile material to initiate a nuclear chain reaction. As a result it must first be bombarded with neutrons to produce the highly radioactive isotope uranium-233 – 'so these are really U-233 reactors,' says Karamoskos.

This isotope is more hazardous than the U-235 used in conventional reactors, he adds, because it produces U-232 as a side effect (half life: 160,000 years), on top of familiar fission by-products such as technetium-99 (half life: up to 300,000 years) and iodine-129 (half life: 15.7 million years).Add in actinides such as protactinium-231 (half life: 33,000 years) and it soon becomes apparent that thorium's superficial cleanliness will still depend on digging some pretty deep holes to bury the highly radioactive waste.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 18, 2018, 09:00:01 pm
Thorium has been touted as the future of nuclear power since the 1960s.   Decades later it is still in the R and D phase.  Why is that?
No research on thorium reactors has been done since the 1960, when politics caused the research to be cancelled. That's the complete explanation for why nothing has moved forward.

That's not true at all. Sure there was a period when research was not as extensive as it has been in the last 20 years,  but there has always been ongoing efforts.  See this for a list of the current multiple ongoing Thorium research projects ongoing in multiple countries. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium-based_nuclear_power) 

I've been hearing these same kind of "Hopium" arguments about Thorium for years now.  I'm surprised to see it here.
From the late 60s until the mid 2000s there was basically nothing going on. The wikipedia page shows various "activities" since the mid 2000s, but they are mostly tinkering. Some, like the "Canada could put thorium in a CANDU reactor" effort seem to miss the point - its the liquid fluoride salt design which brings most of the attractions in the 1960s thorium research work. Who has had research reactors up and running, really pushing forward with the idea, since the 60s? Who, even now that a lot of fresh interest has been garnered, is seriously on the way to having a reactor up and running?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 18, 2018, 09:09:58 pm
40 years ... at current R&D budget levels.

What we really need is for governments to get involved. I'm sure that the USA could reduce that number a lot if they diverted (eg.) 10% of their military budget into energy research.
You don't know that more money will get quicker or better results just as 9 women can't produce a baby in 1 month.
If you look at technical evolutions real steps are made on lucky discoveries and a sudden invention or insight.
Look at battery research and the capacity increase in Ah per volume over the last fourty years. Lead acid for 100 years then NiCd/NiMH and esp. LiIon were big big steps but after that.... Nothing just a very slow increase over years while very very large sums are invested in R&D. They do make interesting discoveries but before they are ripe for massproduction many years of experiments and failures are needed to sort it out.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 18, 2018, 09:14:59 pm
Thorium has been touted as the future of nuclear power since the 1960s.   Decades later it is still in the R and D phase.  Why is that?
Like others already noted: Thorium reactors don't produce materials for nuclear weapons so Nixon shut the Thorium projects down.

It seems India is leading in Thorium reactor research and it seems there are a couple of dozen Thorium reactors running across the globe.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 18, 2018, 09:16:32 pm

From the late 60s until the mid 2000s there was basically nothing going on. The wikipedia page shows various "activities" since the mid 2000s, but they are mostly tinkering. Some, like the "Canada could put thorium in a CANDU reactor" effort seem to miss the point - its the liquid fluoride salt design which brings most of the attractions in the 1960s thorium research work. Who has had research reactors up and running, really pushing forward with the idea, since the 60s?

I added  this link (http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/thorium.aspx) which gives more detail on the multple research projects involving multiple countries throughout the 70s, 80s and 90s.

Quote
Who, even now that a lot of fresh interest has been garnered, is seriously on the way to having a reactor up and running?
Well what do you mean by seriously?  The Wikipedia article details multiple projects costing hundreds of millions of dollars.  But perhaps it's because widespread use Thorium reactors remains one of those "always in the future" technologies that will save us, like fusion reactors, better battery technology, etc, etc.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 18, 2018, 09:19:06 pm
What we really need is objective researchers because all the glory stories about Thorium are either from misinformed green environmental persons or companies/universities that just want money.
Since with the current tech there are no gains compared to nuclear technology IMO it would be better to research other  cleaner alternatives like fusion, hoping to get a break through. Probably not this century  :(
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 18, 2018, 09:28:26 pm
Thorium has been touted as the future of nuclear power since the 1960s.   Decades later it is still in the R and D phase.  Why is that?
Like others already noted: Thorium reactors don't produce materials for nuclear weapons so Nixon shut the Thorium projects down.

Not accurate.  See the second link I posted (http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/thorium.aspx)  It details 2 large US research reactors active in the 70s and 80s.  There were also several projects ongoing in other countries during that time.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 19, 2018, 05:32:31 am
Thorium reactor have some very serious technical issues.  Conspiracy theorists like to say it was Nixon who wanteed neucelar weapons.  While it is true the US did have over 80,000 nuclear weapons at one time we also know Thorium has many technical issues which we still have not figured out.  China was suppose to have a working Thorium reactor in a few years.  But like everyone else they encountered the same technical libations which they were unable to solve.   Just last year they abandoned the project and like everyone else, came to the conclusion it’s not feasible.

Width the progress being made with next gen nuclear, there is no reason for a Thorium reactor.  Sorensen has been trying to get funding for a Thorium reactor for years.  To date no one has provided him with any funding this includes the billionaires.  The billionaires have all invested money in Next Gen Nuclear not Thorium.  There’s a reason they are not funding Thorium as in it’s just not feasible.  Where as Next Gen Nuclear is far more promising.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Marco on June 19, 2018, 05:53:41 am
People have been pumping billions into sodium cooled reactors for decades, they burn well.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 19, 2018, 10:05:44 am
Accept that fossil fuels are a generally bad idea. Help to change things where you can. Drive the old gas guzzler as long as your conscience permits.

Fossil fuels are the dog's bollocks, the only pity is that, they won't last forever.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 10:15:27 am
Fossil fuels are the dog's bollocks, the only pity is that, won't last forever.
Then visit some city in China like Harbin and realize that very often you don't want to go outside without a gas mask. 

(http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20131021/001aa018f80213cf085d01.jpg)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 19, 2018, 10:24:49 am
Also: Accept that some people are genuinely happy with their electric cars. A lot of them have more than one car and still choose the electric one for the daily commute. By choice! Go figure!!

I know, I have one, but ICEs are still better and proven and cost less to buy and to repair and have longer range and you can fix them yourself and there's abundance of third party repair parts and don't come loaded with silly gadgets that no one wants nor asked for nor faulty half cooked fake "autopilots" that want to kill you nor have custom ultra heavy hyper expensive batteries -that can catch fire spontaneously- with a date of expiry hidden somewhere and that only work ~ well in cool-ish climates.

Other than that, yes, I like torque more than power. In that EVs get an A+. Only in that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 19, 2018, 10:30:33 am
Fossil fuels are the dog's bollocks, the only pity is that, won't last forever.
Then visit some city in China like Harbin and realize that very often you don't want to go outside without a gas mask. 
But that is not due to fossil fuels. That is due to not reducing / filtering NOx and SOx emissions.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 19, 2018, 10:32:45 am
Then visit some city in China like Harbin and realize that very often you don't want to go outside without a gas mask. 

No way we would be almost 8 billion now if it were not for the fossil fuels. How about that?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 19, 2018, 10:42:35 am
Human lives have blossomed all over the earth thanks to fossil fuels, or, put it another way, fossil fuels have saved thousands of millions of starvation. Like it or not, that's the facts, put it in your head fanboys.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 10:47:32 am
Fossil fuels are the dog's bollocks, the only pity is that, won't last forever.
Then visit some city in China like Harbin and realize that very often you don't want to go outside without a gas mask. 
But that is not due to fossil fuels. That is due to not reducing / filtering NOx and SOx emissions.
As if those come from nowhere  :palm:, not to say that smog is not limited to China. Say USA is affected as well. Also you cannot filter all emissions at reasonable expense.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 19, 2018, 10:49:24 am
Human lives have blossomed all over the earth thanks to fossil fuels, or, put it another way, fossil fuels have saved thousands of millions of starvation. Like it or not, that's the facts, put it in your head fanboys.

Historically speaking, most of that was due to horses. How many horses do you keep?

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 19, 2018, 10:59:31 am
Human lives have blossomed all over the earth thanks to fossil fuels, or, put it another way, fossil fuels have saved thousands of millions of starvation. Like it or not, that's the facts, put it in your head fanboys.
Historically speaking, most of that was due to horses. How many horses do you keep?
Try looking at a graph of the world's population over time. It grew slowly but steadily from the earliest time for which they can get a reasonable estimate until 1770. After 1770 the world's population started to explode, starting in the UK, then Europe, and slowly the rest of the world. In 1769 James Watt patented the first efficient steam engine. There is a connexion. The UK population is about 12 times what it was in 1769.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 19, 2018, 10:59:44 am
Then visit some city in China like Harbin and realize that very often you don't want to go outside without a gas mask. 

No way we would be almost 8 billion now if it were not for the fossil fuels. How about that?

Everything you say here my first thought is, "Is that supposed to be a good thing?"
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 19, 2018, 12:26:12 pm
Fossil fuels are the dog's bollocks, the only pity is that, won't last forever.
Then visit some city in China like Harbin and realize that very often you don't want to go outside without a gas mask. 
But that is not due to fossil fuels. That is due to not reducing / filtering NOx and SOx emissions.
As if those come from nowhere  :palm:, not to say that smog is not limited to China. Say USA is affected as well. Also you cannot filter all emissions at reasonable expense.
You can. In West Europe we have been doing that for decades and the lower SOx levels compared to the US and China show the result. Over 25 years ago I visited a coal power plant which used filters to get rid of NOx and SOx. A by-product was plaster which got used by the building materials industry.
It is not a new phenomenon either https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Smog_of_London) All in all it is just a matter of how important your health is to your government.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 19, 2018, 12:35:57 pm
London in Victorian era was even worse.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 12:44:14 pm
You can. In West Europe we have been doing that for decades and the lower SOx levels compared to the US and China show the result. Over 25 years ago I visited a coal power plant which used filters to get rid of NOx and SOx. A by-product was plaster which got used by the building materials industry.
But can you filter CO2 without spending so much energy that it's basically pointless? Particularly here, I notice climate change quiet a lot during last decades. Weather, especially during winter is nothing like it was 20-25 years ago. In China population is much denser, therefore effects are more noticeable. Also they are not nearly the worst ecology offenders. If China created as much pollution per person as US, it would be much worse than it is.

(https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/list-countries-co2-per-capita.png)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 19, 2018, 01:21:38 pm
You can. In West Europe we have been doing that for decades and the lower SOx levels compared to the US and China show the result. Over 25 years ago I visited a coal power plant which used filters to get rid of NOx and SOx. A by-product was plaster which got used by the building materials industry.
But can you filter CO2 without spending so much energy that it's basically pointless? Particularly here, I notice climate change quiet a lot during last decades. Weather, especially during winter is nothing like it was 20-25 years ago. In China population is much denser, therefore effects are more noticeable. Also they are not nearly the worst ecology offenders. If China created as much pollution per person as US, it would be much worse than it is.
Hold your horses! CO2 is not causing smog!!! It is the by products (like NOx and SOx) from burning fossil fuels which cause smog.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 19, 2018, 01:29:27 pm
You can. In West Europe we have been doing that for decades[..]
But can you filter CO2[..]

CO2 is colourless, it's not the fog in that picture.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 19, 2018, 02:03:15 pm
You can. In West Europe we have been doing that for decades and the lower SOx levels compared to the US and China show the result. Over 25 years ago I visited a coal power plant which used filters to get rid of NOx and SOx. A by-product was plaster which got used by the building materials industry.
But can you filter CO2 without spending so much energy that it's basically pointless? Particularly here, I notice climate change quiet a lot during last decades. Weather, especially during winter is nothing like it was 20-25 years ago. In China population is much denser, therefore effects are more noticeable. Also they are not nearly the worst ecology offenders. If China created as much pollution per person as US, it would be much worse than it is.
You are confusing two completely separate issues:
Sulphur and nitrous oxides from industrial systems are only present in fairly small amounts, and in many cases there are simple ways to catch them in liquid or solid form. CO2 and water and the dominant results of most combustion. There is a lot of CO2, and its basically carbon ash. So, its not the most reactive of materials to be able to chemically catch it, and it doesn't dissolve in huge quantities. Most proposed carbon dioxide grabbing schemes have centred on catching and storing the CO2, but that's tough. Nobody has successfully demonstrated a practical way to do that on a large scale. There have been various attempts (try Googling for carbon dioxide sequestration), but they've pretty much all shut down in failure.

By the way, some of the worst pictures you see of terrible city air in China are due to fine dust blown hundreds of kilometres from arid dusty countryside. Other cities were plagued by rapid construction, without dust catchers covering the towers during construction. They use nets to catch most of that now. Other cities are plagued mostly by combustion related pollution.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 19, 2018, 02:18:16 pm
EV news: Another Tesla catches fire spontaneously "out of the blue" in LA:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdaFk3w6rUY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdaFk3w6rUY)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 02:52:32 pm
EV news: Another Tesla catches fire spontaneously "out of the blue" in LA:
Quote
"Our initial investigation shows that the cabin of the vehicle was totally unaffected by the fire due to our battery architecture, which is designed to protect the cabin in the very rare event that a battery fire occurs," the company noted in a statement.

Probably battery was pierced from the bottom as in a few previous cases. AFAIK they increased mechanical protection on the bottom at some point of time.
FWIW Ford Kuga owners in SA were/are driving with a brick on a nearby seat to smash window and get out of a car if fire happens. More than 50 of those catched fire in SA alone, including man trapped inside and burned alive. Kuga/Escape fires occurred elsewhere too. If you think than other ICE cars don't catch fire, you are wrong as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isV5seTpS5I (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isV5seTpS5I)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEm_IDoC_kw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEm_IDoC_kw)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 03:02:35 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeTLlut0Ur8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeTLlut0Ur8)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 03:06:39 pm
Hmm, I now recalled a memory from my childhood. Sometime in late 90s I've seen a car burning nearby a place where I lived. No crash happened, it just started burning while driving.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 19, 2018, 03:17:02 pm
That's a bit off topic in an EVs' thread, wraper :-)

But if you insist, you'd have to keep posting many more vidjeos because for every Tesla there are what, one thousand ICEs? Ten thousand? 1e5? Don't you think?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 19, 2018, 03:21:18 pm
Hmm, I now recalled a memory from my childhood. Sometime in late 90s I've seen a car burning nearby a place where I lived. No crash happened, it just started burning while driving.
A few decades ago years ago seeing a burned out car, that showed no signs of being in a crash, was not that rare an event. Perhaps designers are getting better at keeping fuel where it belongs.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 19, 2018, 03:25:53 pm
Hmm, I now recalled a memory from my childhood. Sometime in late 90s I've seen a car burning nearby a place where I lived. No crash happened, it just started burning while driving.
A few decades ago years ago seeing a burned out car, that showed no signs of being in a crash, was not that rare an event. Perhaps designers are getting better and keeping fuel where it belongs.
In car fires fuel doesn't play a major role. The fuel is kept safely below the rear passengers' seat. The most probable cause is a short circuit causing wires, grease and plastic (the interior) to catch fire.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 03:28:41 pm
That's a bit off topic in an EVs' thread, wraper :-)

But if you insist, you'd have to keep posting many more vidjeos because for every Tesla there are what, one thousand ICEs? Ten thousand? 1e5? Don't you think?
Because you imply as if electric cars are more prone to fires while they are not.

https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Fire-statistics/Vehicle-fires/Highway-vehicle-fires (https://www.nfpa.org/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Fire-statistics/Vehicle-fires/Highway-vehicle-fires)
Some nice car fire statistics. 174 000 car fires in US in 2015 alone. I don't think there are 100 000 ICE cars per every Tesla for ICE cars be at least on par regarding fire safety.


(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Top_countries_plug-in_concentration_per_1000_people_2016.png)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 03:41:24 pm
That's a bit off topic in an EVs' thread, wraper :-)
BTW, could you please elaborate how much on topic by your standard is posting videos about diesel engines or progressive utopia?   :popcorn:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 19, 2018, 03:53:48 pm
Quote
Our initial investigation shows that the cabin of the vehicle was totally unaffected by the fire due to our battery architecture, which is designed to protect the cabin in the very rare event that a battery fire occurs," the company noted in a statement.
What? Look at the video. They designed it so that the fire is blasting under the car doors so that the passengers can not leave the vehicle, insane!  :palm:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 04:00:07 pm
They designed it so that the fire is blasting under the car doors so that the passengers can not leave the vehicle, insane!  :palm:
I guess blasting fire in the ass or in your face as with ICE cars would be better. There is not so much fire that you couldn't get out of a car without receiving burns. Also this video was taken some time after there was no people inside.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 19, 2018, 04:07:40 pm
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Top_countries_plug-in_concentration_per_1000_people_2016.png)
Note that these numbers are completely wrong for the Netherlands. The actual number of cars with a plug is around 130000 (1.4% of all vehicles) and there are around 22000 electric only vehicles registed according to the government statistics: https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2018/21/number-of-all-electric-cars-increasing-rapidly (https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2018/21/number-of-all-electric-cars-increasing-rapidly)
Most plug-in hybrids aren't even used as an EV due to the non-existent range of 30km or so. These are only electric on paper and hence the Dutch government has stopped giving tax incentives on plug-in hybrids.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 19, 2018, 04:10:01 pm
EV news: Another Tesla catches fire spontaneously "out of the blue" in LA:

 :palm:

You know that in 17 gasoline cars go up in flames in the USA every hour, right? That's nearly one every three minutes. There was another one while you were reading this.

Pesky facts here: https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/By-topic/Property-type-and-vehicles/Vehicles (https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/By-topic/Property-type-and-vehicles/Vehicles)

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Fungus on June 19, 2018, 04:20:10 pm
This thread is now on my "ignore thread" list. George is either trolling or beyond help. I don't really care which.

For those of you who don't know how to do it, you can enable ignoring in your profile settings:

(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=459589;image)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on June 19, 2018, 04:21:08 pm
Quote
based on U.S. automobile miles-per-fire statistics from the National Fire Protection Association, a driver is "5 times more likely to experience a fire in a conventional gasoline car than a Tesla."

Yeah. It's simply safer for fire also. Check.

Quote
In car fires fuel doesn't play a major role.  The most probable cause is a short circuit causing wires,
Nope. Wrong.
1) Fuel leaks
2) Electrical System Failures
3) Spilled Fluids
4) Overheating Engines
5) Overheating Catalytic Converters
6) Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Batteries
7) Arson
8) Car Crashes
9) Poor Maintenance
10) Design Flaws

https://auto.howstuffworks.com/car-driving-safety/accidents-hazardous-conditions/10-causes-of-car-fires10.htm
Those are insurer's statistics. Pretty real-life reliable

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 19, 2018, 04:59:35 pm
1.- If the proportion of EVs/ICEs were -say- 1:1000, obviously, whenever a car catched fire the probability of it being an ICE would be almost 1. (if both were as likely to burn in flames (who knows?))
2.- Note that "Electrical system failures" is #2 in that list.
3.- There are no old EVs on the streets, but there are millions of old ICEs. That isn't accounted for in the statistics. (apples vs oranges)
4.- An ICE, when in your garage, is turned off, ~ totally, but an EV very likely isn't, and has its power electronics running and a powerful, potentially dangerous, very big li-ion battery that's being recharged while you sleep.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 05:14:16 pm
If the proportion of EVs/ICEs were -say- 1:1000, obviously, when a car catches fire the probability of it being an ICE is almost 1. (if both were as likely to burn in flames (who knows?))
You have some weird understanding of statistics.
Quote
2.- Note that "Electrical system failures" is #2 in that list.
Electrical failures in ICE cars.
Quote
4.- An ICE, when in your garage, is turned off, totally, but an EV very likely isn't, and has its power electronics running and a powerful, potentially dangerous, very big li-ion battery that's being recharged while you sleep.
They are not not, and a plenty of fires happened with "turned off" ICE cars. You could see that in a video I already posted.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 19, 2018, 05:24:31 pm
So what's more likely to catch fire, a 12 volts tiny battery car that's totally off or a car with a hundreds of volts, kilowatts inverter/power supply that's plugged in pushing charge into a massive li-ion battery?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 05:40:47 pm
To this day only 15 Tesla fires are known (2013-2018). Except a few, they happened after very severe crashes. As on Feb 2018 total of 300,000 Tesla cars were produced. That means around 1 in 20 000 of them caught fire.
In 2015 there were 263 million cars in US. With 174k car fires the same year, it's 1 fire per 1500 cars annually. Please note that Tesla number is during all years they were produced, not annually.
So now lets think again about:
So what's more likely to catch fire, a 12 volts car that's totally off or a car with a hundreds of volts, kilowatts inverter/power supply pushing charge into a massive li-ion battery?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 19, 2018, 05:47:52 pm
and has its power electronics running and a powerful, potentially dangerous, very big li-ion battery that's being recharged while you sleep.


And that's the EV (not hybrid) Achilles' heel. You should read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicle_fire_incidents

You have pulled out of the air that the ratio of EV to ICE cars is 1:1000. As a proponent of EVs you surely realize this ratio will change and, therefore, so will the relative incidence of Li-ion battery fires.

The number of ICE fires in the US in 2ppm. There are about 500,000 EVs in the US (less if that number includes hybrids). At the same probability you would expect only 1 EV vehicle of all the ones on the road in the US to have caught fire. The true number is obviously higher. Therefore from a probabilistic approach, EVs catch fire more than ICEs. Part of my point is that quoting statistics is prone to being bullshit.

(My beef with some EV proponents is that they clearly have no idea how much energy - usually of fossil fuel origin - goes into making a car from its raw materials. You'd need to drive a new EV for more than 250,000 miles to fully offset it. How many EV owners keep their cars that long?)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 05:56:33 pm
The number of ICE fires in the US in 2ppm.
The correct number is 667ppm of cars in US caught fire annually.
Quote
As a proponent of EVs you surely realize this ratio will change and, therefore, so will the relative incidence of Li-ion battery fires.
LOL  :-DD
You took the post of ICE advocate with some sort of BS statistics pulled out from thin air and made even more BS conclusions out of that.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: coppice on June 19, 2018, 07:24:46 pm
Hmm, I now recalled a memory from my childhood. Sometime in late 90s I've seen a car burning nearby a place where I lived. No crash happened, it just started burning while driving.
A few decades ago years ago seeing a burned out car, that showed no signs of being in a crash, was not that rare an event. Perhaps designers are getting better and keeping fuel where it belongs.
In car fires fuel doesn't play a major role. The fuel is kept safely below the rear passengers' seat. The most probable cause is a short circuit causing wires, grease and plastic (the interior) to catch fire.
The main fuel tank is kept in a relatively secure position, but pipes and pumps and other plumbing do fail, leaking fuel onto hot components. I know of fires which started this way long ago.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: JohnnyMalaria on June 19, 2018, 07:43:30 pm
The number of ICE fires in the US in 2ppm.
The correct number is 667ppm of cars in US caught fire annually.
Quote
As a proponent of EVs you surely realize this ratio will change and, therefore, so will the relative incidence of Li-ion battery fires.
LOL  :-DD
You took the post of ICE advocate with some sort of BS statistics pulled out from thin air and made even more BS conclusions out of that.

Um, hence what I said about stats.

I notice no comment about the energy it takes to make an EV. The pious Prius population don't seem to care about that. They care about shaming others and spout hand-wavy bullshit about how electricity is cleaner. Laugh at yourself, friend.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 19, 2018, 07:51:34 pm
Hmm, I now recalled a memory from my childhood. Sometime in late 90s I've seen a car burning nearby a place where I lived. No crash happened, it just started burning while driving.
A few decades ago years ago seeing a burned out car, that showed no signs of being in a crash, was not that rare an event. Perhaps designers are getting better and keeping fuel where it belongs.
In car fires fuel doesn't play a major role. The fuel is kept safely below the rear passengers' seat. The most probable cause is a short circuit causing wires, grease and plastic (the interior) to catch fire.
The main fuel tank is kept in a relatively secure position, but pipes and pumps and other plumbing do fail, leaking fuel onto hot components. I know of fires which started this way long ago.
That may be but that is only a problem when driving. When the car is parked the fuel system isn't pressurised. The battery however stays live and powers various electronics.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 08:03:34 pm
Um, hence what I said about stats.
Had you read actual stats I posted, it's obvious it's not in favor of ICE cars. Also had you read wiki page you linked to, you'd realize the same thing. And yeah, feelings are so much more important than real numbers  :clap:. Conclusion based on pulled out of ass calculations  :horse:.
Quote
I notice no comment about the energy it takes to make an EV. The pious Prius population don't seem to care about that. They care about shaming others and spout hand-wavy bullshit about how electricity is cleaner. Laugh at yourself, friend.
I didn't feel need to comment more about already so flawed post, but OK. https://www.quora.com/How-much-energy-is-required-to-build-an-electric-car (https://www.quora.com/How-much-energy-is-required-to-build-an-electric-car)
Quote
Table 8 concludes an EV requires 50 GJ and 3,250 CO2 to manufacture while a normal ICV requires 34 GJ and 2,000 kg of CO2.

Quote
You will spend 13.5 GJ per year if you commute using an EV and will produce 2,750 kg of CO2.
You will spend 21.3 GJ per year if you commute using an ICV and will produce 5,300 kg of CO2.

After 10 years (190,000 km):

EV:
50 GJ + (13.5 GJ x 10) = 185 GJ
3.25 + (2.75 x 10) = 30.75 tons of CO2

ICV:
34 GJ + (21.3 GJ x 10) = 247GJ
2 + (5.3 x 10) = 55 tons of CO2

Conclusion: manufacturing a car takes only a small portion of energy compared to what it will consume during its lifetime.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 19, 2018, 09:20:02 pm
The error in that article is that is assumes the ICE consumes 10l/100km. That is not realistic. Even worse: the numbers in the article don't add up at all!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 09:41:17 pm
The error in that article is that is assumes the ICE consumes 10l/100km. That is not realistic. If you want to compare apples with apples then you have to compare with a new, efficient ICE which does better than 5l/100km and reaches a 30% efficiency.
I don't see your 10l/100km figure anywhere. Also ICE car won't consume this low during city traffic while EVs are the most efficient at that. Not to say Americans usually don't buy small fuel efficient cars.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 19, 2018, 09:52:35 pm
Most modern petrol cars do less than 6l/100km average split city/motorway.
Diesel even lower.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 19, 2018, 09:59:13 pm
Anyway, point me to those 10l/100km which you see somewhere https://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.php (https://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.php)

EDIT: I found mpg figure in assumptions. In any case, this is not some random figure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_economy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_economy)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 06:03:38 am
I didn't feel need to comment more about already so flawed post, but OK. https://www.quora.com/How-much-energy-is-required-to-build-an-electric-car (https://www.quora.com/How-much-energy-is-required-to-build-an-electric-car)

You don't believe everything your read on the internets, do you?

On that page, in the very first paragraph:

Quote
The Energy Density of gasoline is 44.4 MJ per kg, so it is useful to think that the energy in 1,125 liters of fuel (roughly 22 full tanks of gasoline) is what is needed to make a new EV! "

WRONG because 1 litre of gasoline isn't 1 kg of mass, more like 0.7[kg/l] => you'd need 1462 litres. (search energy density in the wikipedia).

2nd paragraph:
Quote
The battery capacity on Tesla’s Model S is 85kWh or 306MJ. You will need to fully charge your Model S 164 times to have spent 50GJ of energy or the equivalent of making another EV"

WRONG, because the best case round trip efficiency of li-ion batts is 90..95%, and still have to add to that charger losses. Hint: Teslas have calefaction for the batteries (for charging in cold places) and cooling (to dissipate batt's heat during recharge).

Quote
this will give you approximately 70,000 km (range for the 85 kWh battery is 426 km)

I'm glad to see he estimates 19.9 kWh per 100 km. That's not the real thing either (under normal driving habits), but at least isn't the much lower silly figures most EV fanboys try to make us believe.

Then this:
Quote
On an ICV, which will take 60 full tanks (50L tank) to compare with its 34 GJ at 25% eff

WRONG, look, 60[tanks]*50[litre]*34.2[MJ/l] -> 102.6 GJ, but 34GJ*4 is 136 GJ.

I stopped there. You get the idea, don't you?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 06:23:28 am
To this day only 15 Tesla fires are known (2013-2018). Except a few, they happened after very severe crashes. As on Feb 2018 total of 300,000 Tesla cars were produced. That means around 1 in 20 000 of them caught fire.
In 2015 there were 263 million cars in US. With 174k car fires the same year, it's 1 fire per 1500 cars annually. Please note that Tesla number is during all years they were produced, not annually.
So now lets think again about:
So what's more likely to catch fire, a 12 volts car that's totally off or a car with a hundreds of volts, kilowatts inverter/power supply pushing charge into a massive li-ion battery?

Yes, let's think again but about the meaning of the saying "apples to oranges": you can't compare brand new EVs with +20 year old ICEs. (BTW we'll see how well EVs batteries, electrolytics and power electronics behave after 20 years)

And, also, Teslas aren't the only EVs there are. BMW's i3 also catch fire every now and then, and Leafs I guess, etc...

http://bmwi3.blogspot.com/2015/12/bmw-i3-melts-away-in-house-fire.html (http://bmwi3.blogspot.com/2015/12/bmw-i3-melts-away-in-house-fire.html)
(https://s1.cdn.autoevolution.com/images/news/gallery/poof-a-bmw-i3-is-gone-missing_3.jpg)

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/bmw-i3-police-car-catches-fire-in-rome-bad-news-for-the-lapd-109367.html# (https://www.autoevolution.com/news/bmw-i3-police-car-catches-fire-in-rome-bad-news-for-the-lapd-109367.html#)
(https://s1.cdn.autoevolution.com/images/news/gallery/bmw-i3-police-car-catches-fire-in-rome-bad-news-for-the-lapd_4.jpg)

In any case, I was asking that question as a nerd: what do you as a nerd/engineer think is more likely to catch fire?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 09:13:36 am
In any case, I was asking that question as a nerd: what do you as a nerd/engineer think is more likely to catch fire?
You may think what you want but real statistics are not in your favor. I don't want to buy anything designed by engineers for whom feels and superstitions matter more than real numbers. Old ICEs? Those Ford Kuga were 2013+. Also do you really think US uses mostly old cars? Even if only 1 in 20 of those 174k cars burned in 2015 were relatively new and we forget about the rest, statistics are still not in favor of them.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 09:19:22 am
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/bmw-i3-police-car-catches-fire-in-rome-bad-news-for-the-lapd-109367.html# (https://www.autoevolution.com/news/bmw-i3-police-car-catches-fire-in-rome-bad-news-for-the-lapd-109367.html#)
Quote
but it's worth pointing out at this moment that the i3 was equipped with a range extender, which means it came with a small gasoline engine that would act as a power generator charging the batteries on the go.
And then https://cleantechnica.com/2017/02/23/bmw-recalling-19000-i3-rex-units-fuel-vapor-fire-danger/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2017/02/23/bmw-recalling-19000-i3-rex-units-fuel-vapor-fire-danger/)
Quote
BMW will be issuing a recall for over 19,000 i3 REx (range-extended) cars towards the beginning of April due to concerns about fuel vapors potentially starting fires, according to recent reports.
Yep, good old ICE  :palm:
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 09:24:35 am
http://bmwi3.blogspot.com/2015/12/bmw-i3-melts-away-in-house-fire.html (http://bmwi3.blogspot.com/2015/12/bmw-i3-melts-away-in-house-fire.html)
Nice fact checking George  :horse: You didn't even read what was written there.
Quote
Also, neither the car, nor the home charging equipment, had anything to do with the fire. It was an unfortunate accident resulting from a fireworks event for a New Year's Eve celebration last year. Hours after cleaning up the debris from a neighborhood event, a trash can that had ashes from the fireworks ignited. Neighbors had gotten together for the fireworks display and the clean up. There must have been something placed in the trash that wasn't completely extinguished, and after a few hours of smoldering, it unfortunately caught on fire.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 10:09:17 am
But my point still stands: Teslas aren't the only EVs there are. Other EVs also catch fire every now and then. Add them up.

And you keep comparing apples to oranges (unknowingly it seems) because a new Tata Tiago or a Dacia Sandero (sold by the millions) is in no way comparable to a new Tesla Model S or an i3 not even to a Leaf that costs 4..8 times as much. When and if there are cheap EVs then we'll find out where do they cut corners/$.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 10:12:17 am
You may think what you want but real statistics are not in your favor. I don't want to buy anything designed by engineers for whom feels and superstitions matter more than real numbers.

Superstitions? What might be the MTBF of something that's turned off?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 10:30:34 am
But my point still stands: Teslas aren't the only EVs there are. Other EVs also catch fire every now and then. Add them up.
All you gathered to show other EV fires was false. With tesla, it was easy to gather number made and number of fires as every fire is all over the news.
Superstitions? What might be the MTBF of something that's turned off?
Did you read what I and others said. ICE cars are not fully turned off. Not to say that even if they sort of would, energized wiring still would be there.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 11:48:00 am
Then this:
Quote
On an ICV, which will take 60 full tanks (50L tank) to compare with its 34 GJ at 25% eff

WRONG, look, 60[tanks]*50[litre]*34.2[MJ/l] -> 102.6 GJ, but 34GJ*4 is 136 GJ.

I stopped there. You get the idea, don't you?
I didn't quote or check his calculations about fuel amount vs count of charge times as this was pretty much irrelevant for the question of how much energy it takes to make EV vs ICV (~1.5 times more). The parts I quoted come here (energy spent on manufacturing/CO2 emissions): https://greet.es.anl.gov/files/vehicle_and_components_manufacturing (https://greet.es.anl.gov/files/vehicle_and_components_manufacturing)
Quote
EV requires 50 GJ and 3,250 CO2 to manufacture while a normal ICV requires 34 GJ and 2,000 kg of CO2.
And CO2 emissions during usage: https://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.php (https://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.php)
After a first year of use ICV already will create more CO2 emissions (manufacturing + usage).
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 11:51:58 am
Yeah, ...hypermiling downhill with the A/C off :-)

Look, Hyundai says of the Ionic: 28 kWh battery, 280 km range => 10 kWh/100km and you say 14 kWh/100km, which is 40% more, right?

Teslas have wider tyres and a larger frontal cross section area and more power and weight and Tesla says 19.9 kWh/100km, now you do the math.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 12:02:48 pm
Ok, so the Teslas are the only EVs that catch fire spontaneously or in an accident... right?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 12:09:15 pm
And when we say an ICE runs 10 mpg is because we've put 1 gallon into the tank and it's gone 10 miles with it. But you, to begin with, to draw 10kWh off your batt have to take (about) 10/0.85 -> almost 12 kWh off the wall plug, something that very conveniently always forget to mention in the figures you give.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 12:10:38 pm
Ok, so the Teslas are the only EVs that catch fire spontaneously or in an accident... right?
Maybe, would not check for that. Does not matter if they are still tens of times less prone to that compared to ICV.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 12:12:00 pm
And when we say an ICE runs 10 mpg is because we've put 1 gallon into the tank and it's gone 10 miles with it. But you, to begin with, to draw 10kWh off your batt have to take (about) 10/0.85 -> almost 12 kWh off the wall plug, something that very conveniently always forget to mention in the figures you give.
LOL what? What this is supposed to imply?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 12:15:05 pm
Ok, so the Teslas are the only EVs that catch fire spontaneously or in an accident... right?
Maybe, would not check for that. Does not matter if they are still tens of times less prone to that compared to ICV.

Which is something that you just don't know and keep comparing apples to oranges.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 12:16:48 pm
Ok, so the Teslas are the only EVs that catch fire spontaneously or in an accident... right?
Maybe, would not check for that. Does not matter if they are still tens of times less prone to that compared to ICV.

Which is something that you just don't know and keep comparing apples to oranges.
If you imply that Tesla is the least safe EV, then be it. Then I could say that the least safe EV is still tens of times safer than average ICV. Widespread EV fires are somewhat unheard of.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 12:35:39 pm
And when we say an ICE runs 10 mpg is because we've put 1 gallon into the tank and it's gone 10 miles with it. But you, to begin with, to draw 10kWh off your batt have to take (about) 10/0.85 -> almost 12 kWh off the wall plug, something that very conveniently always forget to mention in the figures you give.
LOL what? What this is supposed to imply?

What part, exactly, you don't understand?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 12:42:05 pm
And when we say an ICE runs 10 mpg is because we've put 1 gallon into the tank and it's gone 10 miles with it. But you, to begin with, to draw 10kWh off your batt have to take (about) 10/0.85 -> almost 12 kWh off the wall plug, something that very conveniently always forget to mention in the figures you give.
LOL what? What this is supposed to imply?

What part, exactly, you don't understand?
You mention mpg and kWh, what conclusion I should make out of that oranges vs apples mentioning, not even comparison? That you cannot rate EV with mpg? Or cannot charge ICV?  :-//. Or it's a news for you that EV don't generate free energy?
As of CO2 emissions resulting from using EV, particular number was given, not nearly 0.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 12:47:21 pm
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=460111;image)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 12:53:41 pm
You mention mpg and kWh, what conclusion I should make out of that oranges vs apples mentioning, not even comparison? That you cannot rate EV with mpg? Or cannot charge ICV?  :-//. Or it's a news for you that EV don't generate free energy?
As of CO2 emissions resulting from using EV, particular number was given, not nearly 0.

If you say an EV consumes 10 kWh/100km in reality it has consumed 12 kWh off the wall plug => 12 kWh/100km not 10.
If you say an ICE consumes 10 litres/100km in reality is has consumed 10 litres off the gas pump. No tricks here, unlike above.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 01:11:40 pm
If you say an ICE consumes 10 litres/100km in reality is has consumed 10 litres off the gas pump. No tricks here, unlike above.
Where is the trick? In your imagination?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 01:15:13 pm
All the kWh/km figures the EV users give are wrong, to begin with.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 01:19:26 pm
All the kWh/km figures the EV users give are wrong, to begin with.
Those figures were not from EV users but from a government website.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 01:31:52 pm
Not those.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 02:04:45 pm
And conflating the EVs with the green/AGW hysteria is a terrible idea.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 20, 2018, 02:11:58 pm
Elon Musk emailed Tesla staff about 'damaging sabotage' by employee.

Any one know what the story is?





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 03:56:01 pm
Elon Musk emailed Tesla staff about 'damaging sabotage' by employee.

Any one know what the story is?
Besides following from Musk's email it seems no more information is available.

Quote
I was dismayed to learn this weekend about a Tesla employee who had conducted quite extensive and damaging sabotage to our operations. This included making direct code changes to the Tesla Manufacturing Operating System under false usernames and exporting large amounts of highly sensitive Tesla data to unknown third parties.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 04:01:58 pm
There was a case of him finding out a traitor in the early days of Tesla.

Quote
In October 2008, the news outlet Valleywag published a letter from an employee at Tesla. The company, just five years old then, had called employees into a meeting and revealed some troubling news, the writer said. Tesla had only $9 million in the bank. Meanwhile, the letter writer claimed, the company had taken more than 1,200 preorders for its electric cars—thousands of dollars in deposits—but delivered fewer than 50 to customers.

“I cannot conscientiously be a bystander anymore and allow my company to deceive the public and defraud our dear customers,” the employee wrote. “Our customers and the general public are the reason Tesla is so loved. The fact that they are being lied to is just wrong.”

The employee’s name was not revealed. But Elon Musk found this person anyway.

The way he did it is the stuff of Hardy Boys novels. According to the Ashlee Vance’s 2015 biography of the tech entrepreneur, Musk copied the text of the letter and pasted into a Word document, and checked the size of the file. He pored over the office’s printer activity logs, looking for a document that matched the one he had created. It’s not clear why this employee would print out the letter that appeared on Valleywag, but Musk’s hunch proved correct. He got a hit on the logs, and used that information to track down the person who carried out the printing job. The employee wrote a letter of apology and resigned.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 20, 2018, 04:57:46 pm
It’s so errire how Elon is so much like Nikola Tesla.  Mysterious fires, his showmanship, outrageous claims etc.  The list of similarities continues to increase over time. 
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: Kjelt on June 20, 2018, 05:37:43 pm
Elon Musk emailed Tesla staff about 'damaging sabotage' by employee.
Any one know what the story is?
Skapegoat?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 20, 2018, 06:53:26 pm
And when we say an ICE runs 10 mpg is because we've put 1 gallon into the tank and it's gone 10 miles with it. But you, to begin with, to draw 10kWh off your batt have to take (about) 10/0.85 -> almost 12 kWh off the wall plug, something that very conveniently always forget to mention in the figures you give.
Not true. The EPA numbers are measured from the wall socket so all of the car's inefficiencies are included. From power plant to wheels an EV has an efficiency somewhere around 70% because the chain of 'devices' in between is quite long.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 20, 2018, 06:58:44 pm
I'm glad to see he estimates 19.9 kWh per 100 km. That's not the real thing either (under normal driving habits), but at least isn't the much lower silly figures most EV fanboys try to make us believe.
Roundabout 14 kWh/100km with our Ioniq driving at 100-110km/h on a highway.
You can calculate the range of your EV - and compare it to others - with this website: https://ecalc.ch/
The problem with numbers from users is that they are utterly meaningless. Without nowing the actual usage scenario you can't say something in general. Tests like the EPA is conducting and the new WLTP car test are the only proper numbers to use in a discussion. These tests are designed to compare cars under real driving scenarios so if you want to make a meaningfull comparison you have to go by the EPA and/or WLTP test results. The test results are also divided in city and highway driving so you can make an estimate on what kind of mileage you can expect yourself.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 07:16:21 pm
And when we say an ICE runs 10 mpg is because we've put 1 gallon into the tank and it's gone 10 miles with it. But you, to begin with, to draw 10kWh off your batt have to take (about) 10/0.85 -> almost 12 kWh off the wall plug, something that very conveniently always forget to mention in the figures you give.
Not true. The EPA numbers are measured from the wall socket so all of the car's inefficiencies are included.

The numbers the car (EV) shows on the dashboard include that? I don't think so. WRT the numbers on the stickers:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Electric_and_plug-in_hybrid_electric_vehicles

"The formula employed by the EPA for calculating their rated MPGe does not account for any fuel or energy consumed upstream such as the generation and transmission of electrical power, or well-to-wheel life cycle, as EPA's comparison with internal combustion vehicles is made on a tank-to-wheel versus battery-to wheel basis"

Accent on "battery-to wheel" and "tank-to-wheel".
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 20, 2018, 07:24:15 pm
The numbers the car (EV) shows on the dashboard include that? I don't think so.
Do you measure mpg of ICE car by what fuel level dashboard shows or by actual distance?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 09:01:07 pm
The numbers the car (EV) shows on the dashboard include that? I don't think so.
Do you measure mpg of ICE car by what fuel level dashboard shows or by actual distance?

litres pumped in/distance traveled. The litres/100km figures of the dashboard are always too optimistic :-)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 20, 2018, 10:19:45 pm
And when we say an ICE runs 10 mpg is because we've put 1 gallon into the tank and it's gone 10 miles with it. But you, to begin with, to draw 10kWh off your batt have to take (about) 10/0.85 -> almost 12 kWh off the wall plug, something that very conveniently always forget to mention in the figures you give.
Not true. The EPA numbers are measured from the wall socket so all of the car's inefficiencies are included.

The numbers the car (EV) shows on the dashboard include that? I don't think so. WRT the numbers on the stickers:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Electric_and_plug-in_hybrid_electric_vehicles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Electric_and_plug-in_hybrid_electric_vehicles)

"The formula employed by the EPA for calculating their rated MPGe does not account for any fuel or energy consumed upstream such as the generation and transmission of electrical power, or well-to-wheel life cycle, as EPA's comparison with internal combustion vehicles is made on a tank-to-wheel versus battery-to wheel basis"

Accent on "battery-to wheel" and "tank-to-wheel".
The Wikipedia article is obviously wrong. How can the EPA measure between the batteries and the motor? They measure what goes into the car using a kWh meter between the mains socket and the car and then determine how far the car can go. This PDF describes the exact procedure followed during the EPA test: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/pdfs/EPA%20test%20procedure%20for%20EVs-PHEVs-11-14-2017.pdf (https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/pdfs/EPA%20test%20procedure%20for%20EVs-PHEVs-11-14-2017.pdf)

Quote:
After running the successive city cycles, the battery is recharged from a
normal AC source and the energy consumption of the vehicle is determined (in kW-hr/mile or kW-hr/100 miles) by
dividing the kilowatt-hours of energy to recharge the battery by the miles traveled by the vehicle. The recharge
energy includes any losses due to inefficiencies of the manufacturer’s charger.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 20, 2018, 11:36:49 pm
Well done, EPA. But as I said the batt charge gauge numbers on the dashboard show battery kWh not kWh out of the wall plug => the dashboard MPGe figures are off (higher). I guess it makes sense, because most ICEs dashboards display quite optimistic MPG values too.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: jh15 on June 21, 2018, 04:32:41 am
How many here own a Tesla that can do some experiments and gather data?.

Years ago on a show called Car Talk, a public broadcasting radio show in America, a call-in:

I have a Toyota Prius, it seems I get much less gas mileage with a bike rack and bikes on. The hosts said to try it with the bikes inside. Was it the weight or the aerodynamics? Never heard the result.

My old 2017 60kwh model s power from the house was lost in our dithering of other things as  cleaning oven that month, a/c basement dehumidifier, how many large tektronix scopes I was playing with.

no charger either, just branched it across our split-phase for 13 amps at 240v.  Been a year I've had the 50 amp cable and stuff for licensed sparky to come in. Working on upgrading all the house old wiring before the town inspection.

The epa on my car is 101 highway, 99 city. So coal burner wise, equal to 5 mustang muscle cars less and better performance and longevity.
And no noise drama. Have the cheapest stereo too, no noise to drown out while dragging Maserite, etc.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 21, 2018, 08:11:04 pm
I have a Toyota Prius, it seems I get much less gas mileage with a bike rack and bikes on. The hosts said to try it with the bikes inside. Was it the weight or the aerodynamics? Never heard the result.
aerodynamics ofcourse  :palm: The weight of a few bikes is insignificant compared to the weight of the car. Judging from the looks the Prius has been optimised using a wind tunnel while trying to make a car which looks like a car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on June 21, 2018, 10:38:55 pm
When you live in a locale with an abundance of Hydro power, the numbers are quite impressive.  These numbers would be even better if they had our province at 90% Hydro, but it's a US site, and the world stops at the 49th
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=460762;image)
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 21, 2018, 11:10:39 pm
When you live in a locale with an abundance of Hydro power, the numbers are quite impressive.  These numbers would be even better if they had our province at 90% Hydro, but it's a US site, and the world stops at the 49th
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=460762;image)

Ad then there is the rest of the world.  We don’t have anymore sources for hydro.  So as the years progress hydro will continue to decrease over the years.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: f4eru on June 22, 2018, 02:23:46 pm
Quote
So as the years progress hydro will continue to decrease over the years.
In percentage, yes.
But If you don't have hydro, you have solar :)
Big scale solar is on a steep rise...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 22, 2018, 05:18:40 pm
Quote
So as the years progress hydro will continue to decrease over the years.
In percentage, yes.
But If you don't have hydro, you have solar :)
Big scale solar is on a steep rise...
From a little bit to a little bit more. In absolute numbers solar doesn't contribute much to renewable energy. In many countries bio-mass and wind take care of the largest amount of renewable energy.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ez24 on June 22, 2018, 06:05:02 pm
FYI   In today's paper they said Uber is going to pay drivers $1 extra per trip if the driver uses an EV.  Up to $20 a week.  Their app will help with planning the trip.

Uber is also building a EV charge station in my city.  This is to help Calif get to the goal of 5 million EV by 2030.  My answer to the question is 2030.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on June 22, 2018, 10:16:45 pm
All the kWh/km figures the EV users give are wrong, to begin with.

What's wrong with the figures?  Here's what I'm getting (2018 eGolf, mostly city driving, live at the top of a hill)


(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=461251;image)


13.9 kWh/100km
@ $0.085/kWh = C$1.18/100km
Petrol is $1.459/l here today, so that's the equiv of 1.18/1.459
.. 0.8l / 100km,
.. 353 ImpMPG
.. 294 USMPG

In an area where your electricity is more expensive (everywhere else but here), or petrol cheaper, it won't be as pronounced, but around here that's a pretty solid reason to want an electric car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 22, 2018, 10:34:52 pm
I don't think so. The price difference between a cheap electric car and an ICE car is about 15k euro (say Nissan Leaf versus Ford Fiesta). The price difference buys me over 9000 liters of fuel. With the Ford Fiesta doing 20km on one liter that will get me 180000km of driving range. Given the fact that the electricity isn't free the financial break even point will be closer to 200000km.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on June 22, 2018, 10:52:09 pm
I don't think so. The price difference between a cheap electric car and an ICE car is about 15k euro (say Nissan Leaf versus Ford Fiesta). The price difference buys me over 9000 liters of fuel. With the Ford Fiesta doing 20km on one liter that will get me 180000km of driving range. Given the fact that the electricity isn't free the financial break even point will be closer to 200000km.

Canadian Prices:
2018 eGolf: $36,355 (not including $5,000 govt grant)
2018 Golf GTI $31,995 (auto)
2018 Golf Comfortline (auto, equipped similarly to base eGolf): $25,890

For me, the eGolf is actually cheaper than a GTI w/ auto transmission (however I'd personally have a standard), and only $5k more than a comfortline

Also, for trading in for a new electric car, you get $6k from the province no matter what you trade in. As my tradein was probably only worth $4k, that was another $2k of free money.

Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 22, 2018, 10:55:38 pm
Also, for trading in for a new electric car, you get $6k from the province no matter what you trade in. As my tradein was probably only worth $4k, that was another $2k of free money.
Why not buy some cheap junk which is barely alive, trade in that and sell your car for $4k?
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on June 22, 2018, 11:08:53 pm
Also, for trading in for a new electric car, you get $6k from the province no matter what you trade in. As my tradein was probably only worth $4k, that was another $2k of free money.
Why not buy some cheap junk which is barely alive, trade in that and sell your car for $4k?

You had to show continuous ownership/insurance for the past 6 or 9 months, that's why.  I could have, and probably saved another $1k maybe, but the biggest issue was we weren't really sure when the car would arrive (they now have a 12-18 month backlog), and I didn't want to get into a potential moneypit of trying to keep a beater alive.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: splin on June 23, 2018, 03:53:51 am
When you live in a locale with an abundance of Hydro power, the numbers are quite impressive.  These numbers would be even better if they had our province at 90% Hydro, but it's a US site, and the world stops at the 49th
(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=460762;image)

When you plug your EV in to recharge it, you increase the load on the grid, by say, 3kW. That means another 3kW has to be supplied to the grid. Do you suppose they increase the hydro, nuclear, wind, biomass, PV, coal and gas generators proportionally? Of course not - everything except coal and gas (and possibly biomass) is almost certainly already maxed out. So your EV, pretty much wherever you live in the world, is powered by gas or coal fired electricity.

If it's gas your CO2 emissions are likely to be a bit less than those from an efficient ICE, but if it's coal then they could well be worse.

There will of course be occasions, in some places, where there are renewable sources that are being curtailed because supply exceeds demand, or grid capacity is insufficient, but that will very much be the exception.

And please don't try to claim that because you have solar panels on your house that your EV is powered solely by renewables - unless you are off grid - because your PV electricity would have been used regardless of whether your EV was plugged in or not.

The key words here are 'marginal generation' ie. the generators that are turned on to supply additional demand and it will vary over the course of a day and over the year as well as your location. Of course when your grid supply is 100% low carbon (nuclear or renewable) then your EV also becomes low carbon. But for most places in the world that won't be for another 20 years or more.

This 'average mix of electricity generation sources' nonsense is found everywhere on the web including in many scientific and goverment papers. The Union of Concerned Scientists has knowingly and shamelessly pushed this rubbish for some time (undoubtably for the best of reasons) but the fact that the EPA also promolgate this non-science is disappointing; they know that it is meaningless but publish these worthless 'calculators' anyway. They know it because they provide a tool, AVERT 'A tool that estimates the emissions benefits of energy efficiency and renewable energy policies and programs' which analyses marginal emissions factors.

https://www.epa.gov/statelocalenergy/avoided-emissions-and-generation-tool-avert (https://www.epa.gov/statelocalenergy/avoided-emissions-and-generation-tool-avert)

I guess the reason that so many use an average mix of electricity generation is because it is easy to get the numbers whereas it is generally very hard or impossible to find the marginal generation numbers.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: jh15 on June 23, 2018, 04:15:19 am
but my car fuel millage could power 5 mustangs.

Not talking about econoboxes.

100 mpg equivalent what does a mustang get, and is stinky and noisy.

tried to tell wife at red light to get attention of Maserati at red light a couple weeks ago. what do you do? can't rev engine.  she sort of floored it sort of, but it was in rearview.
.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: DougSpindler on June 23, 2018, 06:21:19 am
Since we are doing energy comparisons.....  1 barrel of gas is the equivalent to the work 10 slave produce in a year.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 23, 2018, 03:44:57 pm
Since we are doing energy comparisons.....  1 barrel of gas is the equivalent to the work 10 slave produce in a year.
That is just as informative and correct as the MPGe number indeed. The biggest problem with the MPGe number is that is uses average fuel consumption. This makes EV look much better than they are. In my earlier post I already showed that you if you care about fuel consumption the financial break even point between an economic ICE car versus an EV is about half the distance between the earth and the moon. And that economic ICE car doesn't need to be a clunker. Nowadays they get 85kW from a 1 litre engine over a very wide RPM range.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 25, 2018, 09:32:07 am
What's wrong with the figures?  Here's what I'm getting (2018 eGolf, mostly city driving, live at the top of a hill)

13.9 kWh/100km

That figure only means that your car on average consumes 13.9 kWh off the battery every 100 km.

But, to take 1 kWh off the battery, you first have had to take about 1/0.85 kWh off the wall plug, so, in reality, your car uses 13.9/0.85 = 16.4 kWh/100km not 13.9.

That's what's wrong with the figures: 1) there are losses in the charging circuit, 2) the round trip efficiency of a battery isn't 100%, and 3) if it's a Tesla even more because charging a cold battery turns on a battery heater, and a hot one a battery cooler (and when charging at a supercharger).

ICEs aren't like that because to get one litre into the tank you take one litre off the gas pump, there are no losses.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: ahbushnell on June 25, 2018, 12:43:09 pm
What's wrong with the figures?  Here's what I'm getting (2018 eGolf, mostly city driving, live at the top of a hill)

13.9 kWh/100km

That figure only means that your car on average consumes 13.9 kWh off the battery every 100 km.

But, to take 1 kWh off the battery, you first have had to take about 1/0.85 kWh off the wall plug, so, in reality, your car uses 13.9/0.85 = 16.4 kWh/100km not 13.9.

That's what's wrong with the figures: 1) there are losses in the charging circuit, 2) the round trip efficiency of a battery isn't 100%, and 3) if it's a Tesla even more because charging a cold battery turns on a battery heater, and a hot one a battery cooler (and when charging in a supercharger).

ICEs aren't like that because to get one litre into the tank you take one litre off the gas pump, there are no losses.
ICE has costs for transport of the fuel, electrical power to gas stations ...
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on June 25, 2018, 04:52:09 pm
What's wrong with the figures?  Here's what I'm getting (2018 eGolf, mostly city driving, live at the top of a hill)

13.9 kWh/100km

That figure only means that your car on average consumes 13.9 kWh off the battery every 100 km.

But, to take 1 kWh off the battery, you first have had to take about 1/0.85 kWh off the wall plug, so, in reality, your car uses 13.9/0.85 = 16.4 kWh/100km not 13.9.

That's what's wrong with the figures: 1) there are losses in the charging circuit, 2) the round trip efficiency of a battery isn't 100%, and 3) if it's a Tesla even more because charging a cold battery turns on a battery heater, and a hot one a battery cooler (and when charging in a supercharger).

ICEs aren't like that because to get one litre into the tank you take one litre off the gas pump, there are no losses.

I doubt the losses are 15% in the charging circuit.  I tend to find if the charge indicator shows 1/2, it takes about 19kWh to full (35kWh battery), probably closer to 10%

It's still, given the cheap Hydro based electricity in these parts so much cheaper than an ICE car.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 25, 2018, 04:57:49 pm
Keep telling yourself it is cheaper. You could have bought a decent but efficient ICE based car for about US $11K less (including your tax break). That buys you a whole lot of fuel and gets much less depreciation. I already did the math on how far you have to drive to reach the financial break even point. Please tell us how much you drive on average annually.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 25, 2018, 05:05:03 pm
0.95 (95% charger efficiency) * 0.9 (90% li-ion round trip efficiency) = 0.85. Still have to add to that the Teslas' battery heater/cooler losses.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on June 25, 2018, 05:18:52 pm
Keep telling yourself it is cheaper. You could have bought a decent but efficient ICE based car for about US $11K less (including your tax break). That buys you a whole lot of fuel and gets much less depreciation. I already did the math on how far you have to drive to reach the financial break even point. Please tell us how much you drive on average annually.

[li]A slightly less well equipped Golf (comparing apples to apple), would come in at C$5k/less.  I'm saving about C$150/month ($10 electricity vs $160 petrol costs per month) right now vs my old car (2007 MB B200), so the difference should pay for itself in just under 3 years.  If I were compare it to a more modern better fuel consumption vehicle, that probably goes up to 5yr, but no more.
[/li][/list]
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: mtdoc on June 25, 2018, 05:50:33 pm
I've owned my Chevy Volt for 4 years now. In that time I have saved an average of about $100 per month in gasoline (net - after accounting for charging costs) .  That means I've saved approximately $4800 so far in gasoline costs.  I've also only needed one oil change so far since I rarely use the ICE.  So say another $200 in savings there.  Also, my brakes are good as new still thanks to regenerative braking.

My Volt cost me about $25k after my $7500 tax credit (which I make enough income to have fully realized).

Minus $5k in gas and oil savings so far means a net cost of about $20k  at this point.    Any  car which is even close to it in terms of performance, safety and quality of the ride, etc. would have cost me significantly more.  Even without the tax credit - I'd be at parity now.  Yes, eventually in another 10 years or so, I may want to replace the battery pack. That will be a significant cost. But in the meantime, the savings in gas, oil, brake servicing, transmission and engine servicing will more than have paid for that cost.

We recently bought a Chrysler Pacifica PHEV for my wife. The savings are already accumulating for it as well.

The cost of ownership of EVs and PHEVs (if driven mostly in electric mode) is so much lower compared to ICEs that even without federal tax credits, etc, there are several models which now are low enough cost to mean that over their lifespan they are likely to save the owners money.

BUT  - in the end - it's not only about money.  If the were the case, we'd all be driving the cheapest tin can on wheels. We all choose to strike a balance between cost and features when choosing a vehicle.  Even ignoring the environmental benefits - the amazing torque, quiet ride and wonderful convenience of not having to fill up my gas tank once or twice a week, are features I'd be willing to pay extra for. It's just a bonus that it turns out I don't have to.

I will never purchase a gas only vehicle again.  I do own an 2001 Toyota Tundra pick up truck I use for hauling, towing, etc.  Once there's a suitable EV or PHEV replacement available, I will be replacing it as well.





Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: nctnico on June 25, 2018, 08:55:05 pm
Keep telling yourself it is cheaper. You could have bought a decent but efficient ICE based car for about US $11K less (including your tax break). That buys you a whole lot of fuel and gets much less depreciation. I already did the math on how far you have to drive to reach the financial break even point. Please tell us how much you drive on average annually.

  • I don't purchase vehicles in US$ in much the same way you don't buy them in UK Pounds or Danish Kroner. If you pay attention to who you're talking to, it will help your argument.
  • I could not have bought an equivalent vehicle for C$14k (your claimed US$11k) less. I paid C$31K (after govt rebate - not a tax deduction). According to your math an equivalent car is C$17K, which barely exists for the cheapest of econoboxes.
  • I live in a jurisdiction with the highest gasoline prices, and some of the lowest electricity rates in all of North America, which makes the purchase particularly effective.
[li]A slightly less well equipped Golf (comparing apples to apple), would come in at C$5k/less.  I'm saving about C$150/month ($10 electricity vs $160 petrol costs per month) right now vs my old car (2007 MB B200), so the difference should pay for itself in just under 3 years.  If I were compare it to a more modern better fuel consumption vehicle, that probably goes up to 5yr, but no more.
[/li][/list]
But who says you need to buy a Golf? Take a Ford Focus 1.0 for example. Pretty similar to a Golf when it comes to size and comfort but without the VW price tag. The Ford Focus 1.0 costs C$22k according to an online price list. That is C$9K less for a car which actually does 5l/100km. Comparing to your old Mercedes (apparantly 8l/100km) is just nonsense because you are going to buy a new car anyway. You'll save 35% just on fuel so your fuels costs with the Ford Focus would be C$94 a month. C$9k/94=95.7  months=8 years. That is way more than 5 years!
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: wraper on June 25, 2018, 09:08:04 pm
But who says you need to buy a Golf? Take a Ford Focus 1.0 for example.
Yeah, those with dying engine.
Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
Post by: boffin on June 26, 2018, 02:04:07 am
    Keep telling yourself it is cheaper. You could have bought a decent but efficient ICE based car for about US $11K less (including your tax break). That buys you a whole lot of fuel and gets much less depreciation. I already did the math on how far you have to drive to reach the financial break even point. Please tell us how much you drive on average annually.

    • I don't purchase vehicles in US$ in much the same way you don't buy them in UK Pounds or Danish Kroner. If you pay attention to who you're talking to, it will help your argument.
    • I could not have bought an equivalent vehicle for C$14k (your claimed US$11k) less. I paid C$31K (after govt rebate - not a tax deduction). According to your math an equivalent car is C$17K, which barely exists for the cheapest of econoboxes.
    • I live in a jurisdiction with the highest gasoline prices, and some of the lowest electricity rates in all of North America, which makes the purchase particularly effective.
    A slightly less well equipped Golf (comparing apples to apple), would come in at C$5k/less.  I'm saving about C$150/month ($10 electricity vs $160 petrol costs per month) right now vs my old car (2007 MB B200), so the difference should pay for itself in just under 3 years.  If I were compare it to a more modern better fuel consumption vehicle, that probably goes up to 5yr, but no more.
    But who says you need to buy a Golf? Take a Ford Focus 1.0 for example. Pretty similar to a Golf when it comes to size and comfort but without the VW price tag. The Ford Focus 1.0 costs C$22k according to an online price list. That is C$9K less for a car which actually does 5l/100km. Comparing to your old Mercedes (apparantly 8l/100km) is just nonsense because you are going to buy a new car anyway. You'll save 35% just on fuel so your fuels costs with the Ford Focus would be C$94 a month. C$9k/94=95.7  months=8 years. That is way more than 5 years!

    By your logic, everyone should buy the cheapest car available.  I bought a Golf, because I wanted something a little nicer/quieter/more comfortable.  Doing the comparison of a nice electric car with the cheapest ICE car available is an irrelevant comparison.[/list]
    Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
    Post by: f4eru on June 26, 2018, 05:01:15 am
    Quote
    Since we are doing energy comparisons.....  1 barrel of gas is the equivalent to the work 10 slave produce in a year.
    Speaking of which:
    Slave labor has been abolished.
    As will be burning of fossil fuels very soon.
    Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
    Post by: nctnico on June 26, 2018, 07:58:55 am
      Keep telling yourself it is cheaper. You could have bought a decent but efficient ICE based car for about US $11K less (including your tax break). That buys you a whole lot of fuel and gets much less depreciation. I already did the math on how far you have to drive to reach the financial break even point. Please tell us how much you drive on average annually.

      • I don't purchase vehicles in US$ in much the same way you don't buy them in UK Pounds or Danish Kroner. If you pay attention to who you're talking to, it will help your argument.
      • I could not have bought an equivalent vehicle for C$14k (your claimed US$11k) less. I paid C$31K (after govt rebate - not a tax deduction). According to your math an equivalent car is C$17K, which barely exists for the cheapest of econoboxes.
      • I live in a jurisdiction with the highest gasoline prices, and some of the lowest electricity rates in all of North America, which makes the purchase particularly effective.
      A slightly less well equipped Golf (comparing apples to apple), would come in at C$5k/less.  I'm saving about C$150/month ($10 electricity vs $160 petrol costs per month) right now vs my old car (2007 MB B200), so the difference should pay for itself in just under 3 years.  If I were compare it to a more modern better fuel consumption vehicle, that probably goes up to 5yr, but no more.
      But who says you need to buy a Golf? Take a Ford Focus 1.0 for example. Pretty similar to a Golf when it comes to size and comfort but without the VW price tag. The Ford Focus 1.0 costs C$22k according to an online price list. That is C$9K less for a car which actually does 5l/100km. Comparing to your old Mercedes (apparantly 8l/100km) is just nonsense because you are going to buy a new car anyway. You'll save 35% just on fuel so your fuels costs with the Ford Focus would be C$94 a month. C$9k/94=95.7  months=8 years. That is way more than 5 years!

      By your logic, everyone should buy the cheapest car available.  I bought a Golf, because I wanted something a little nicer/quieter/more comfortable.  Doing the comparison of a nice electric car with the cheapest ICE car available is an irrelevant comparison.[/list]
      I know from my own experience that the Ford Focus is comparable to a Golf. They live in the same segment and the ICE based versions of the Golf cost about the same compared to the Ford Focus in Canada according to the same website. I'm not stupid! BTW I choose the Ford Focus as an example because I know it is available with an extremely efficient 1 litre engine.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on June 26, 2018, 08:07:24 am
      VWs are way overpriced compared to Opel, Ford etc.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on June 26, 2018, 08:11:13 am
      I'm not stupid! BTW I choose the Ford Focus as an example because I know it is available with an extremely efficient 1 litre engine.
      The issue is that you likely will need to replace the engine faster than a battery in EV. Many people got screwed after just a few years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on June 26, 2018, 08:22:02 am
      Same with the first VW 1.4TSI engines lots lotsof problems and in Holland the importer did nothing, also with the engine belts they were made cheaper till some cars engine were a totall loss after 60000km because the belt broke on the freeway. So yes you can better choose a prooven engine technology.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on June 26, 2018, 11:51:01 am
      I'm not stupid! BTW I choose the Ford Focus as an example because I know it is available with an extremely efficient 1 litre engine.
      The issue is that you likely will need to replace the engine faster than a battery in EV. Many people got screwed after just a few years.
      There is an issue indeed with the very first batch of these models which is related to the cooling system. But there has been a recall (to replace a hose and reservoir) and engines are replaced under warranty.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on June 26, 2018, 01:07:59 pm
      I'm not stupid! BTW I choose the Ford Focus as an example because I know it is available with an extremely efficient 1 litre engine.
      The issue is that you likely will need to replace the engine faster than a battery in EV. Many people got screwed after just a few years.
      There is an issue indeed with the very first batch of these models which is related to the cooling system. But there has been a recall (to replace a hose and reservoir) and engines are replaced under warranty.
      As of what people write on forums, engines still leak and seize after recall repair. And even the latest ones still do fail, not only early ones which were recalled. And guess what, if engine already failed (seized), they only offer partial discount, not free engine replacement. So you are still out of several $K in the best case if they offered partial discount.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 26, 2018, 01:33:11 pm
      One of my cars is a Ford, it's the seventh Ford I own, it's a pretty good car just like the previous six. I've also had two VWs I bought new, never again. But lemons happen.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 26, 2018, 01:42:10 pm
      BTW when people say "in the long term with an EV you'd save $", the problem with that is that nobody wants to have to drive the same car for 20 years in order to amortize it. I also don't believe it's ok for you to pay my new EV, as it happens with tax deductions etc.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jonovid on June 26, 2018, 02:05:53 pm
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr0YSZZ-FYg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr0YSZZ-FYg)
      1970 Lancia Stratos Zero: A crazy concept from the Wedge Era - Sound & Driving on the Streets!
      a car in need of electrification, the internal combustion engine is not happy with the slow
      street diving.  in this vehicle a hybrid electric powertrain would make the car smoother
      and more futuristic.

      internal combustion engine  = poor efficiency
      liquid fuel energy density  = excellent

      electric motors        = excellent efficiency
      electric battery energy density = poor

      update-
      what electric vehicles need to become mainstream is the electrolyte liquid fuel battery.
      or fuel cell that uses liquid fuel at room temperature.
      so the depleted electrolyte fuel is replaced or recycled at the gas pump.
      having the same energy density & weight as petroleum fuels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on June 26, 2018, 02:42:15 pm
      Quote
      nobody wants to have to drive the same car for 20 years in order to amortize it.
      You don't need to. The falling price means that today it's amortized in a few years.
      And in a few years, ICE won't even be an option any more.

      And there will be economic models to cope with that new longevity of cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on June 26, 2018, 03:03:47 pm
      Quote
      nobody wants to have to drive the same car for 20 years in order to amortize it.
      You don't need to. The falling price means that today it's amortized in a few years.

      I don't follow your logic here. The fact that the prices on electric cars have started to fall, and will most likely continue to fall, rather deters me from buying one right now. If you buy an electric car now, you will probably never be able to sell it a price that makes economic sense.

      And by the time the battery is worn out, the car companies will probably have adjusted their pricing to make it more economic to buy an entirely new car, than to replace the battery...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on June 26, 2018, 05:04:32 pm
      If you buy an electric car now, you will probably never be able to sell it a price that makes economic sense.

      That is true for any new car you buy.  It is no different for EVs or PHEVs - which is easily confirmed by checking used prices.

      It's a ridiculous standard that some seem to want to hold EVs to - that they need to make some sort of "economic sense" that is not true for other new auto purchases, computer purchases, test equipment purchases, etc, etc....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on June 26, 2018, 05:18:31 pm
      Quote
      nobody wants to have to drive the same car for 20 years in order to amortize it.
      You don't need to. The falling price means that today it's amortized in a few years.
      Keep on dreaming. With mass produced products the price is mainly driven by the cost of materials and their processing. Ergo the heavier something is, the more it will cost to make and the more it will cost to buy. EVs with their batteries will be heavier compared to ICE cars for at least another 20 years (due to needing more capacity to get reasonable range) so they will also stay more expensive during that time.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on June 26, 2018, 05:41:31 pm
      If you buy an electric car now, you will probably never be able to sell it a price that makes economic sense.

      That is true for any new car you buy.  It is no different for EVs or PHEVs - which is easily confirmed by checking used prices.

      It's a ridiculous standard that some seem to want to hold EVs to - that they need to make some sort of "economic sense" that is not true for other new auto purchases, computer purchases, test equipment purchases, etc, etc....

      Of course all cars begin to losing value quickly as soon as you start to drive them. You pay a surcharge for getting to chose and configure your new car, which you will not recover when selling it.

      But you did get the bit about the falling prices for new electrical vehicles, did you? That will exacerbate the situation when you try to sell a used EV in a few years. I am not aware of a similar trend for gasoline-powered cars. Buying an electrical car now still makes you an early adopter, with the financial implications that usually has.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 26, 2018, 05:42:27 pm
      mtdoc: it's the fanboys that keep harping on the many savings of buying an EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on June 26, 2018, 05:54:40 pm

      But you did get the bit about the falling prices for new electrical vehicles, did you? That will exacerbate the situation when you try to sell a used EV in a few years. I am not aware of a similar trend for gasoline-powered cars. Buying an electrical car now still makes you an early adopter, with the financial implications that usually has.

      Not really true. Perhaps it was 5 years ago. Many of the EVs and PHEVs currently for sale in the US are not overpriced relative to similarly equipped and performing ICE cars.

      What is happening is that cheaper EVs are becoming available as EVs are starting to be built or are planned to be built to compete with the bare bones equipped, poor performing but inexpensive ICEs.

      Currently in the US, if you make enough money to claim the $7500 tax credit, you may actually pay less for an EV or PHEV than for a similarly equipped and performing ICE auto.

      And that is not accounting for the large savings in operating costs that you will begin to accrue once you take ownership.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on June 26, 2018, 05:57:05 pm
      Define similar performing... range? refill time? life span of key components?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on June 26, 2018, 05:58:32 pm
      Define similar performing...

      Acceleration, handling, comfort, ride, etc.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 26, 2018, 06:01:18 pm
      Yeah, poor performing: every time an EV does the Pikes Peak, receives a sophisticated "pre-cooling treatment":

      (http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=569166)

      ...and then overheats  :-DD
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on June 26, 2018, 06:15:31 pm
      BTW, a quick search shows that since 1998, in real terms,  the overall price trend for all new cars is down. (http://aceee.org/blog/2017/11/fuel-economy-going-vehicle-prices-are)

      (http://aceee.org/sites/default/files/chart2.png)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on June 26, 2018, 06:28:47 pm
      BTW, a quick search shows that since 1998, in real terms,  the overall price trend for all new cars is down. (http://aceee.org/blog/2017/11/fuel-economy-going-vehicle-prices-are)

      17% down in the course of 27 years. That's a 0.6% reduction per year, on average. I wonder what that number looks like for electric cars?  ::)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on June 26, 2018, 07:02:07 pm
      Yeah, poor performing: every time an EV does the Pikes Peak, receives a sophisticated "pre-cooling treatment":
      So poor that EV left all ICV eating dirt at Pikes Peak.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on June 26, 2018, 07:54:52 pm
      Define similar performing...
      Acceleration, handling, comfort, ride, etc.
      It is not like you need an EV for comfort and ride quality. Accelleration may be fun for a while but with my current car I already get comments I pull up to quick and there really is nothing special about the engine. Getting from A to B for lowest cost and least hassle is most important to me.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on June 26, 2018, 08:15:58 pm
      BTW, a quick search shows that since 1998, in real terms,  the overall price trend for all new cars is down. (http://aceee.org/blog/2017/11/fuel-economy-going-vehicle-prices-are)

      17% down in the course of 27 years. That's a 0.6% reduction per year, on average. I wonder what that number looks like for electric cars?  ::)

      Hey, and look at the small print in the text that accompanies your chart. (See your link.) Those data on "car" prices exclude "trucks", which are considered a separate category. And it seems that many customers who would have bought bought a high-end car in the 1990's will now buy a high-end truck. So the apparent reduction of car prices is actually down to a change of model mix. Truck prices have gone up, by 7%, in that same timeframe.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on June 26, 2018, 09:51:12 pm
      Hey, and look at the small print in the text that accompanies your chart. (See your link.) Those data on "car" prices exclude "trucks", which are considered a separate category. And it seems that many customers who would have bought bought a high-end car in the 1990's will now buy a high-end truck. So the apparent reduction of car prices is actually down to a change of model mix. Truck prices have gone up, by 7%, in that same timeframe.
      Nope. Read the accompanying article:
      Quote
      The figure below shows that, in real dollars, the average price for a car “out the door” (what people actually pay, including rebates and fees) is 16% lower today than in the early 1990s.
      The fact that it excludes trucks is irrelevant. We're talking about cars not trucks.  There are not any EV or PHEV trucks to compare to.


      2 first hand, specific, concrete examples of what I am talking about:

      4 years ago I paid (after tax rebate) $25K for my 2014 Volt. I would have at the time paid at least that amount for any car with equivalent performance, comfort, ride, etc.

      Last November, we bought a Chrysler Pacifica PHEV for my wife.  Cost after rebate $40K.  Plus we did not pay sales tax on the first $32K thanks to a recently passed law.  The equivalently equipped ICE only Pacifica would have cost about $44K
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on June 26, 2018, 09:54:43 pm
      BTW, a quick search shows that since 1998, in real terms,  the overall price trend for all new cars is down. (http://aceee.org/blog/2017/11/fuel-economy-going-vehicle-prices-are)

      (http://aceee.org/sites/default/files/chart2.png)
      To anyone outside the US those figures probably look bogus, and I recently found why. US figures for "cars" are basically only for sedans, hatchbacks and estate cars, Since 1998 the market for large "cars" has moved massively to SUVs, and these are counted in a separate category. The average price a US family is paying for its vehicles has not declined. The average price for cars has declined because far more large expensive sedan sales have migrated to the SUV category than small cheap sedans. Sedan sales are in such a poor state in the US that Ford recently decided to kill all sedan product lines in North America.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on June 26, 2018, 10:05:37 pm
      To anyone outside the US those figures probably look bogus, and I recently found why. US figures for "cars" are basically only for sedans, hatchbacks and estate cars, Since 1998 the market for large "cars" has moved massively to SUVs, and these are counted in a separate category. The average price a US family is paying for its vehicles has not declined. The average price for cars has declined because far more large expensive sedan sales have migrated to the SUV category than small cheap sedans. Sedan sales are in such a poor state in the US that Ford recently decided to kill all sedan product lines in North America.

      Thank you, coppice. That's exactly what I tried to explain above. But as you can see, mtdoc has elected to deny/misunderstand/ignore this.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on June 26, 2018, 10:07:07 pm
      The average price for cars has declined because far more large expensive sedan sales have migrated to the SUV category than small cheap sedans.

      Again, that is not what the linked article says. They break out truck and fleet sales in a different graph  The graph I posted is only reflecting what people have been paying for cars in that time frame.
      Here is the full quote:

      Quote
      For cars alone, prices have been on a downward trajectory since 1998, well before the recession or the increase in fuel economy requirements. The claim by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers that car prices have increased by 60% since the 1990s just doesn’t hold up — unless you ignore inflation and prevalent consumer incentives offered by automakers. The figure below shows that, in real dollars, the average price for a car “out the door” (what people actually pay, including rebates and fees) is 16% lower today than in the early 1990s.

      In any case that is a peripheral issue and not at all central to the argument that EV prices in the US are now comparable to pure ICE cars.

      Quote
      Sedan sales are in such a poor state in the US that Ford recently decided to kill all sedan product lines in North America.
      That is true for Ford only- whose US sedans are crap. No one wants them.   They do make the No 1 selling pickup truck which accounts for almost all of their sales.  Americans and our pick up trucks.. ::) 

      If you want to compare prices paid for trucks in the US to EVs on a what makes "economic sense" basis,  then EVs win hands down.  Lots of people driving around in $50-70K  pick up trucks who have no need for the truck functions.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on June 27, 2018, 02:06:19 am
      I know from my own experience that the Ford Focus is comparable to a Golf. They live in the same segment and the ICE based versions of the Golf cost about the same compared to the Ford Focus in Canada according to the same website. I'm not stupid! BTW I choose the Ford Focus as an example because I know it is available with an extremely efficient 1 litre engine.

      I'm not sure where you get your facts from, but pretty much everything you said above is incorrect.

      A well equipped [Titanium] Focus hatch is about C$27500 here; very comparable to a new [Trendline] Golf, and the focus is not as well built as a Golf; and certainly don't hold their value as well. 

      Lastly the 1.0l engine is not available in North America. So you're "knowing" that an engine is available, when it isn't certainly casts doubt on any other claims you're making.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on June 27, 2018, 05:51:44 am
      The 1.0l engine was listed in the price list for Canada I found. Built quality is arguable and also depends on where that cars are built. In the EU the Ford Focus is built in Germany and some in the UK. The 'made in Germany' ones are definitely better.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on June 28, 2018, 03:16:02 pm
      The manufacturing cost of EVs will likely decrease if they are mass-produced, although maybe not that drastically - the cost of producing conventional cars has indeed decreased, but not by that much, in decades.

      The sale price is yet another matter. Currently, EVs benefit from government financial incentives in a lot of countries. Remove those incentives and you'll look at the prices a bit differently, even if the manufacturing cost decreases.

      And there's still the issue of the batteries, currently being 30% percent of the overall cost or over, and having only a few years lifespan. Not sure their cost will really plummet, unless of course we find a technological breakthrough. So they are a problem for the intrinsic value of the car and tie you to the manufacturer, at least until batteries become standard, which is going to be pretty hard to achieve for years to come, since currently batteries are a significant factor of competition between the manufacturers of EVs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on June 28, 2018, 03:23:08 pm
      And there's still the issue of the batteries, currently being 30% percent of the overall cost or over, and having only a few years lifespan.
      https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/ (https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/)

      Quote
      The trend line currently suggests that the average battery pack could cycle through over 300,000 km (186,000) before coming close to 90% capacity.

      (https://electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2018/04/screen-shot-2018-04-14-at-2-56-15-pm.jpg?quality=82&strip=all)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on June 28, 2018, 04:41:37 pm
      And there's still the issue of the batteries, ...... Not sure their cost will really plummet, unless of course we find a technological breakthrough.
      Nope.
      (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jRpoKrkv_rM/VF5K7UKVMEI/AAAAAAAAATI/MU0vHdnwgwI/s1600/Costcurve.png)
      (https://www.adambank.com/content/dam/rbs-coutts/adam-bank/images/Insights/Outlook/2017/lithium-ion-battery-cost-curve-and-production.jpg)
      (https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2016/6/14/37628986-14658972245098996_origin.jpg)

      And that is without factoring in possible big technological breakthroughs
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on June 28, 2018, 05:37:31 pm
      Those assumptions are wildly optimistic. 6% increase in battery capacity per year is a commonly used rule of thumb. Not 16! Even a small EV needs way over 200Wh/km and 320km of range isn't enough for EVs to become mainstream at all. The charge time improvement and cost of the charging infrastructure are also missing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on June 28, 2018, 05:38:20 pm
      Battery over provisioning FTW... (or how to make a li-ion batt last "forever")
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on June 28, 2018, 05:42:06 pm
      Nice forecasts but still just forecasts - I'm not sure the price drop is sustainable with the current constraints. There are still many unknowns such as the ability to meet a much increased demand and the supply of lithium under this increased demand.

      As some analysts have pointed out, the demand is still rather low on batteries for EVs, actually helping to keep prices down. An increased demand would lead to cost cuts due to the scale effect, but also would lead to higher prices due to the increased demand, especially if we have a hard time meeting this demand, which is a likely scenario. So the overall outcome is hard to predict IMO. I'm not saying those pretty graphs will not turn into reality, I'm just saying that I'm still a bit cautious about the mid- and long-term outcome because of the unknowns.

      As for the performance of Tesla's batteries, it's impressive. Some quick figures: let's take a (realistic?) average of 400 km on a full charge, 300 000 km equates to 750 full charge cycles. 90% remaining capacity at 750 cycles, that's in the ballpark of *very* good Li-ion batteries, but under the constraints of an EV (temperature and high currents), that's even exceptional.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on June 28, 2018, 05:45:32 pm
      We can all talk about this and debate it forever and then there is the truth.  This is an experiment in which we are the lab rats.  The car manufactures, and the government are the scientists making little tweaks here and there to see what happens.  Just as rats have certain personalities so do people.  Some will never try and EV and make fun of everyone who drives one and point out all of the flaws.

      And then there are some of us who have purchased EV who are very pleased and will never purchase an ICE ever again.

      But those are the rats who are in the minority.  Most of the lab rats are like me.  I had my doubts on buying an EV.  But we needed a new car.  The female lab rat in my colony convinced this rat to buy one.  After one night of extreme pleasure I was weak, and the female of my species used this moment weakness to seduce me into signing a contract for an EV. 

      It took me about a month the admit an EV is a much better car than an ICE.  We are now looking for another new car for the member of our colony with XY chromosomes and I’ve got to tell you I’m not even considering buying an ICE.

      I have considered purchasing a Tesla, but I’m just too tall at 6’ 3” (1.91m) and just don’t’ fit in the car.  So, no Tesla for me.  Looked at the Bavarian Money Wasters cars….  What a joke.  Especially the i3.  I fit in the car, but come on a 2 cyl moped engine?  What was BMW thinking.  And the i8 which only has an electric range of 15-24 miles.  And I thought the Germans cared about the environment.   Isn’t that why they closed the clean nuclear power plants in favor of burning dirty polluting coal and buying nuclear energy from France?
      I do not fit in the VW eGolf.  But do fit in the Jetta.   But VW just discontinued it. 

      Since the 1970s I have not been a fan of American cars or American car companies.  If only you knew how much I hate to admit an American car company, and specifically Chey is making the what I consider the “best” EV (for American driving habits) I will probably be leasing (not purchasing) a Chevrolet Volt.  The female in my colonly is right.  EV’s are wonderful.  And unlike a Tesla we have drive to Lake Tahoe, Palm Springs, Oregon, Santa Barbra without the need to make 30-minute re-charging pit stops.
      Why are we leasing and not purchasing?  Cars today are like cell phones.  The technology (software in the car) is change so fast and the car companies are not updating the older models.  And as with cell phones as the batteries age, there capacity decreases.  I don’t want to be stuck with a car in 5 years where the batteries life has degraded.  And I certainly don’t want to be in a position where I must pay for battery replacement.  I think you will find most people are leasing electric cars and not purchasing them.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on June 28, 2018, 06:37:06 pm
      But leasing a car is whoefully expensive. You'll pay for the new battery one way or another and the leasing company makes money from you while doing it. Buying a low maintenance cost used car is the most cost effective way to drive & own a car (*). Another major disadvantage of leasing a car is that if something happens to your income, the you are also without transport while you may need it the most. I had one company car in my life. When the company when belly up I had to bring the car back. Even though I could really use it to go to job interview.

      * For example: my current Ford costs less than 17 euro-cents/km all in (fuel, taxes, maintenance, annual mandatory check) with the purchase price written off fully. And this is one of our more expensive cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on June 28, 2018, 08:00:45 pm
      But leasing a car is whoefully expensive. You'll pay for the new battery one way or another and the leasing company makes money from you while doing it. Buying a low maintenance cost used car is the most cost effective way to drive & own a car (*). Another major disadvantage of leasing a car is that if something happens to your income, the you are also without transport while you may need it the most. I had one company car in my life. When the company when belly up I had to bring the car back. Even though I could really use it to go to job interview.

      * For example: my current Ford costs less than 17 euro-cents/km all in (fuel, taxes, maintenance, annual mandatory check) with the purchase price written off fully. And this is one of our more expensive cars.

      Not in the US.  The way EV car leases are structured at this time and for the past 6 years the EV car is valued $5,000 higher than the coast of an EV car of the same make/model/year with similar mileage.

      Leasing or financed if something happens to your income you are screwed either way.  A Ford is considered an expensive car?  Not here in the US.  A Ford in the US is just an average car.



       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Nauris on June 28, 2018, 08:08:28 pm
      Those assumptions are wildly optimistic. 6% increase in battery capacity per year is a commonly used rule of thumb. Not 16! Even a small EV needs way over 200Wh/km and 320km of range isn't enough for EVs to become mainstream at all. The charge time improvement and cost of the charging infrastructure are also missing.
      Why on earth can't they just put some simple and humble Briggs & Stratton in there for the rare occasions you need more range? 6.5 hp B&S costs next to nothing and would propel small car just fine if you start it before battery goes totally flat. You would never have to worry about battery going empty and could charge anywhere in a emergency.

      Car makers just have too much engineers designing utterly complex and expensive solutions for simple problems. Then they wonder their products costs so much people don't buy :-//
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on June 28, 2018, 08:18:13 pm
      Leasing or financed if something happens to your income you are screwed either way.  A Ford is considered an expensive car?  Not here in the US.  A Ford in the US is just an average car.
      My cars aren't financed. Ford is not considered an expensive car brand here either. When I need a 'new' car I go look around for models which have low maintenance costs and this time a Ford came out on top. We actually bought two in a short time frame because my wife needed a 'new' car as well. The advantage of buying used is that the model is out for a few years so the issues have revealed themselves.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on June 28, 2018, 08:22:13 pm
      Those assumptions are wildly optimistic. 6% increase in battery capacity per year is a commonly used rule of thumb. Not 16! Even a small EV needs way over 200Wh/km and 320km of range isn't enough for EVs to become mainstream at all. The charge time improvement and cost of the charging infrastructure are also missing.
      Why on earth can't they just put some simple and humble Briggs & Stratton in there for the rare occasions you need more range? 6.5 hp B&S costs next to nothing and would propel small car just fine if you start it before battery goes totally flat. You would never have to worry about battery going empty and could charge anywhere in a emergency.

      Car makers just have too much engineers designing utterly complex and expensive solutions for simple problems. Then they wonder their products costs so much people don't buy :-//
      Must be smarter than Tesla. Yeah, engine, generator, fuel tank come for free, I guess. Also they don't consume any space and don't add any weight. They supposedly don't need any servicing as well. And guess are not useless dead weight most of the time  :palm:. Not to say that if you start 6.5 hp engine while battery is still full (which would make no sense), it would give like 50% range increase in the best case. If started when say 30% of the charge is left, no significant range extension would be achieved at all. And then you'll be stuck while it charges the battery in a slow pace. If you want to buy PHEV where battery capacity is compromised with a presence of ICE, you have a choice.
      Say in BMW i3 REx ICE develops 34 hp. And still on electric charge + full gasoline tank it has lower range than any Tesla.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on June 29, 2018, 06:45:32 am
      6% increase in battery capacity per year is a commonly used rule of thumb. Not 16!
      Wrong. It's about cost reduction from rising production, not capacity increase.
      And 16% per year cost reduction is pessimistic, it has been higher than that in each of the  last years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on June 29, 2018, 06:48:27 am
      Say in BMW i3 REx ICE develops 34 hp. And still on electric charge + full gasoline tank it has lower range than any Tesla.
      Yep.
      That's why nobody buys the Rex on the i3.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on June 29, 2018, 02:54:32 pm
      Those assumptions are wildly optimistic. 6% increase in battery capacity per year is a commonly used rule of thumb. Not 16! Even a small EV needs way over 200Wh/km and 320km of range isn't enough for EVs to become mainstream at all. The charge time improvement and cost of the charging infrastructure are also missing.
      Why on earth can't they just put some simple and humble Briggs & Stratton in there for the rare occasions you need more range? 6.5 hp B&S costs next to nothing and would propel small car just fine if you start it before battery goes totally flat. You would never have to worry about battery going empty and could charge anywhere in a emergency.

      Car makers just have too much engineers designing utterly complex and expensive solutions for simple problems. Then they wonder their products costs so much people don't buy :-//

      The reason is simple.  A B&S motor would pollutes more than a car’s ICE.  These motors are being phased out just love the old VW bug engines because becasue modern pollution controls can not be installed.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Nauris on June 29, 2018, 08:14:27 pm

      Must be smarter than Tesla. Yeah, engine, generator, fuel tank come for free, I guess. Also they don't consume any space and don't add any weight. They supposedly don't need any servicing as well. And guess are not useless dead weight most of the time  :palm:.
      Not free but like $300 and includes fuel tank. Servicing? Just change the oil sometime. Toss in new one if it blews.
      Quote
      Not to say that if you start 6.5 hp engine while battery is still full (which would make no sense), it would give like 50% range increase in the best case. If started when say 30% of the charge is left, no significant range extension would be achieved at all. And then you'll be stuck while it charges the battery in a slow pace.
      Quite a big difference if battery is empty but charging vs battery is empty have to call the tow vehicle! Just have a pause and you are good to go.
      Quote
      If you want to buy PHEV where battery capacity is compromised with a presence of ICE, you have a choice.
      Say in BMW i3 REx ICE develops 34 hp. And still on electric charge + full gasoline tank it has lower range than any Tesla.
      Right concept but that is a BMW and I'm not made of money!
      I would buy a Dacia with the Briggs & Stratton, if such were made.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 03, 2018, 11:09:27 am
      The quickest an EV can refill is at 2 kWh/minute (*) (a tesla @ a supercharger @ 120kW), but any ICE can do it at ~ 400 kWh/minute (40 litres/minute), that's ~= 200x times faster: 400[kWh/min]*60[min/h]= 24 MW.

      (*) Accounting for losses the real figure is ~ 0.85 times that = 1.7 kWh/minute, or 235x slower than an ICE.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 03, 2018, 12:03:00 pm
      The quickest an EV can refill is at 2 kWh/minute (*) (a tesla @ a supercharger @ 120kW), but any ICE can do it at ~ 400 kWh/minute (40 litres/minute), that's 200x times faster.

      (*) Accounting for losses the real figure is ~ 0.85 times that = 1.7 kWh/minute, or 235x slower than any ICE.

      If you you’re going to make that comparison, sure gasoline will win, but at least do it correctly.

      1). ICE engines are MUCH less efficient. Ballpark 20% versus 80 - 90%.
      2)  Your figure for gasoline energy density is high. 8.7 - 9.7 kWh/l are the numbers I’ve seen.

      But, yeah, gasoline wins - just not as dramatically as you state.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 03, 2018, 12:07:00 pm
      20% is for the good old gas guzzler. Modern efficient ICEs are doing 35% comfortably over a wide load range.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 03, 2018, 12:24:33 pm
      2)  Your figure for gasoline energy density is high. 8.7 - 9.7 kWh/l are the numbers I’ve seen.

      The figures are for diesel/gasoil: 35.8e6[joules/litre]*40[litre]/3600[seconds]/1e3 = 397.7 kWh

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 03, 2018, 12:27:06 pm
      40l/minute is way higher than my average experience which is more like 3 to 4 minutes for 60 litres. Perhaps with the highvolume truck gauges.

      The more important question IMO is how long will an average user find acceptable to wait till the car is 80% recharged ?
      That will probably lie somewhere around 5 to 10 minutes, 20 minutes is a long time to wait.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 03, 2018, 12:27:31 pm
      20% is for the good old gas guzzler. Modern efficient ICEs are doing 35% comfortably over a wide load range.

      OK good to know - but of course still much less efficient than an electric motor..

      In any case, the underlying comparison is not really valid since electricity can be delivered directly at home  and gasoline cannot.

      It only becomes relevant for car trips > 200 miles or so, which represent a very tiny fraction of car trips -probably <  0.5% or lower.  ( In the US trips > 100 miles are < 1% (https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/pubs/pl08021/fig4_5.cfm) )
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 03, 2018, 12:30:26 pm
      The figures are for diesel/gasoil: 35.8e6[joules/litre]*40[litre]/3600[seconds]/1e3 = 397.7 kWh

      But you said *any* ICE.  Diesel cars are a tiny percentage of US autos.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 03, 2018, 12:31:00 pm
      40l/minute is way higher than my average experience which is more like 3 to 4 minutes for 60 litres. Perhaps with the highvolume truck gauges.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_dispenser
      Quote
      Light passenger vehicle pump flow rate ranges up to about 50 litres (13 US gallons) per minute[3] (the United States limits this to 10 US gallons (38 litres) per minute[4]); pumps serving trucks and other large vehicles have a higher flow rate, up to 130 litres (34 US gallons) per minute in the UK
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 03, 2018, 12:49:56 pm
      The figures are for diesel/gasoil: 35.8e6[joules/litre]*40[litre]/3600[seconds]/1e3 = 397.7 kWh
      But you said *any* ICE.  Diesel cars are a tiny percentage of US autos.

      Yeah, s/35.8/34.2/g -> 382 kWh/minute. But Diesel engines are what moves the world!

      (and I also said "at about":  "any ICE can do it at ~ 400 kWh/minute")
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 03, 2018, 01:02:06 pm
      But Diesel engines are what moves the world!

      True, but the thread is about electric cars.

      Diesel-Electric trains will not be all electric anytime soon. In theory, large freight trucks could be. Ship freight transport will likely remain diesel until it reverts back to wind power....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 03, 2018, 03:22:07 pm
      20% is for the good old gas guzzler. Modern efficient ICEs are doing 35% comfortably over a wide load range.

      OK good to know - but of course still much less efficient than an electric motor..
      From the generator to the wheel of an EV about 30% of the energy is lost as well. People often make that mistake by just looking at the engine/motor but electricity isn't fuel.
      Quote
      In any case, the underlying comparison is not really valid since electricity can be delivered directly at home  and gasoline cannot.
      Why not? You can have all the fuel delivered to your home if you want. Just order it.
      Quote
      It only becomes relevant for car trips > 200 miles or so, which represent a very tiny fraction of car trips -probably <  0.5% or lower.  ( In the US trips > 100 miles are < 1% (https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/pubs/pl08021/fig4_5.cfm) )
      But then you'll need to own multiple cars, pay taxes for both, maintain both and last but not least have space for them. The calculation I made earlier on shows that the financial break even point between an EV and an efficient ICE car (similar sized cars!) is between 150000 and 200000km. The thing is: people buy cars based on that <0.5% of their use cases because those are usually leisure/holiday related besides space and financial constraints. This has been explained in great detail before.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 03, 2018, 05:13:04 pm
      From the generator to the wheel of an EV about 30% of the energy is lost as well.
        Not sure we’re you get that figure,  it even if it’s accurate, it’s far worse for ICE vehicles.

      Quote

       You can have all the fuel delivered to your home if you want. Just order it.
      Really? That’s your argument? If so it’s ridiculous because:

      1) Most people could never install the required large fuel storage tank and even fewer live somewhere that it would be permitted.
      2) You’d still need to attend your vehicle while refueling- which you don’t need to do with an EV. You can sleep while it recharges.
      3) Large amounts of energy would be required just for delivery of fuel to millions of residences.

      Quote
      But then you'll need to own multiple cars

      Why?  Many people never drive that far or if they occasionally do, could rent a car. But more importantly, many people are not that bothered by the idea of stopping for a meal or a walk while their car recharges on a long trip. That is a minor inconvenience in exchange for lower long term cost of ownership, and much less time spent standing next to the car refueling.

      The problem I see over and over is that too many are stuck in the ICE mindset of stopping at the gas station frequently for a quick fill up.

      As most EV owners have found, the shear convenience of not having to stop at the gas station every few days far outweighs the occasional inconvenience of a longer stop during the rare long car ride.

      EVs will never fully replace ICE vehicles IMO, but not for the reasons put forth by most here.  In the end, there will just be much less personal motoring, yet what there is (if any) will likely be done in EVs.

      In the meantime the faster we make the transition, the longer the oil will last for use in areas it is not so easily replaced: Ship, plane and train transport, petrochemicals, etc.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 03, 2018, 05:33:55 pm
      All this has been discussed so I refer back to my previous posts here.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 03, 2018, 10:59:46 pm
      Quote

       You can have all the fuel delivered to your home if you want. Just order it.
      Really? That’s your argument? If so it’s ridiculous because:

      1) Most people could never install the required large fuel storage tank and even fewer live somewhere that it would be permitted.

      In Latvia, if you transport more than 40 liters or store more than 80 liters of gasoline/diesel, you must keep purchase documents readily available. Otherwise if police or customs find out and you don't have proof of purchase, you'll be severely punished for smuggling goods subject to excise tax. They may even confiscate your car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 04, 2018, 07:11:45 am
      In our country it is not even allowed to store large quantities of petrol in house due to safety and fire regulations.
      I am not sure where the boundary is but if you store for instance a 1000 litres petrol in your garage and fire breaks out I am pretty sure you only get a middlefinger from your insurance company.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 04, 2018, 07:59:36 am
      Of course not in a flat, but many/most detached houses have a rather big one for heating (fuel/gasoil).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 04, 2018, 12:05:36 pm
      Of course not in a flat, but many/most detached houses have a rather big one for heating (fuel/gasoil).
      Heating oil is much less problematic than gasoline. Its far harder to get it burning aggressively. Even so, In most places I have seen oil heated houses, the oil tank is well separated from the buidlings.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 04, 2018, 01:53:00 pm
      In our country it is not even allowed to store large quantities of petrol in house due to safety and fire regulations.
      I am not sure where the boundary is but if you store for instance a 1000 litres petrol in your garage and fire breaks out I am pretty sure you only get a middlefinger from your insurance company.
      When I was a kid we had heaters which burned oil (in a city!) and every now and then the oil man came to refill the tanks in the back of the garden.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 04, 2018, 01:57:25 pm
      In the US, heating oil tanks are only common in a few locales.  Most homes are heated with electricity, nat gas, or propane..

      As stated, heating oil is much easier to store safely. In the US, home gasoline storage is usually limited to 25 gallons. (https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/health-and-safety/product-safety-at-home/safe-storage-and-disposal-of-gasoline)

      In addition, there are air pollution regulations on gasoline vapor control and recovery for farmers and others who are allowed to store and dispense large quantities of gasoline or diesel.

      In order for home refuelling of an ICE to be as convenient as home refuelling of an EV, owners would have to be able to store many hundreds of gallons of liquid fuel and have a system for unattended refuelling of their vehicle as well as automatic refilling of their large home storage tank. Even if such a sytem was feasible (its not) it would be very expensive.

      It’s amazing ICE vehicle owners are willing to tolerate the inconveniences they must endure to refuel their vehicle.   :D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on July 04, 2018, 02:54:14 pm
      When I was a kid we had heaters which burned oil (in a city!) and every now and then the oil man came to refill the tanks in the back of the garden.

      That does not sound too exotic to me. In Germany, oil heating still has slightly above 25% market share. Natural gas has 50%, electricity incl. heat pumps below 5%: https://de.statista.com/infografik/11385/art-der-heizung-und-zum-heizen-genutzte-energietraeger/

      At my place, we just decomissioned our oil heating a couple of years ago and switched to gas. The 5000 litre oil tank used to be in the basement, by the way; a common arrangement here. Originally welded together in situ from steel plates when the tank was installed.  8)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 04, 2018, 03:35:47 pm
      Out here in California we sore galloline in glass jars and sore them on top of our natural gas powered water heaters.  Out here in California we have earthquakes, really big earthquakes.  Due to the high costs for earthquake insurance we have found storing a gallon or two of gasoline in a glass jars on top of the water water just at the edge is best.  We alway check to make sure the pilot light and our fire insurance policies are large and paid.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 04, 2018, 03:40:05 pm
       Well done!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on July 04, 2018, 04:44:01 pm
      Most homes are heated with electricity, not gas, or propane..
      Not true.  I'm sure that may be true where you live.  In Southern California there are many home heated with gas.  And in the country with propane. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 04, 2018, 05:18:30 pm
      Most homes are heated with electricity, not gas, or propane..
      Not true.  I'm sure that may be true where you live.  In Southern California there are many home heated with gas.  And in the country with propane.

      OOPS typo! I meant Nat gas, not not gas (fixed now).  So I meant electricity, Nat Gas or propane - all 3 are common.

      I lived in California the fisrt 34 years of my life.  I’ve lived in Vermont, Maine and Montana and currently live in Washington. In all those places, the only place, I’ve seen heating oils is in older homes in Vermont and Maine.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 04, 2018, 06:36:36 pm
      I live in California, SF Bay Area.  My home was built in the early 1950s and was heated with heating oil.  We still have a 150 - 250 gallon tank in our front yard.  Not sure when but as the city grew natural gas lines were installed to all the Homes.   And I know in San Francisco homes still have light fixtures which have natural gas lines running to them.

      There was a time when light from the burning of natural gas was thought to be best for reading and light from electricity would damage our eyes and was only used to light the room.

      Was that before science or great marketing?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Miyuki on July 06, 2018, 05:58:07 pm
      Here is cheapest way to heat coal as big part of country lay on coal deposits
      And state even support it for home heating in automatic boilers (yes and if you get boiler with state support they can acces you house  >:D )
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 10, 2018, 07:44:09 am
      Hey, EV fanboys, look, it occurs to me that the day you can shove Joules in at 30 kWh/minute into your batteries, will be the day the EVs became definitely better than ICEs. That's just 1800 kW, or 1.8 MW (compare that to the ICE's current ~ 24MW). Just Do It (TM) and people will begin to want to buy EVs in flocks.

      And, BTW, there was an easy way to achieve that right now, only that manufacturers have refused to implement it... (battery swaps)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 10, 2018, 08:28:39 am
      Hey, EV fanboys, look, it occurs to me that the day you can shove Joules in at 30 kWh/minute into your batteries, will be the day the EVs became definitely better than ICEs. That's just 1800 kW, or 1.8 MW (compare that to the ICE's current ~ 24MW). Just Do It (TM) and people will begin to want to buy EVs in flocks.

      And, BTW, there was an easy way to achieve that right now, only that manufacturers have refused to implement it...

      Hey Lover of fossil fuels.....   For many people, not everyone an EV would be fine and an excellent replacement for an ICE.  For others they wi never be able to enjoy the benefits of and EV and are stuck with an ICE.

      There once was aa concept car which would allow for 5,000 miles before refueling.  By your definition “better” I guest that would be even a better car.  And it did not produce any greenhouse gasses.  But power a can like powering an aircraft with nuclear fuel turned out to be not so popular.

      Can I ask why you are such a fan boy of ICEs?  The pollute, are noisy, have stinky exhaust with cause health problems for many people.  What’s your objectiion of some people liking EVs?    Have you even drive an EV?  Certainly is a lot more fun to drive than an ICE. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 10, 2018, 08:52:32 am
      Have you even drive an EV?  Certainly is a lot more fun to drive than an ICE.
      I think you just realised what many already knew: EVs are toys.  :box:

      Seriously: after looking at the economics and technology required to have EVs driving around on a large scale I'm quite sure EVs will never become mainstream. The cost of manufacturing alone will make them unaffordable for the masses. And EVs will always be more expensive compared to ICE based cars because EVs will always be more heavier than a comparable car with an ICE. More material = more mining/recycling + more energy + more processing = more expensive. In short EVs are not the solution for reducing CO2 output.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on July 10, 2018, 09:11:05 am
      For many people, not everyone an EV would be fine and an excellent replacement for an ICE.  For others they will never be able to enjoy the benefits of and EV and are stuck with an ICE.

      At the moment, EVs seem to be gaining some traction with people who
      Is that the group you had in mind?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 10, 2018, 09:34:42 am
      Can I ask why you are such a fan boy of ICEs?  The pollute, are noisy, have stinky exhaust with cause health problems for many people.  What’s your objectiion of some people liking EVs?    Have you even drive an EV?  Certainly is a lot more fun to drive than an ICE.

      I have an EV and I like it, it's a nice machine, I know its virtues and limitations, but I'm not a green/EV religious fanboy/zealot.

      And above all, I am very aware of the immense benefits that fossil fuels have brought us, something that EV fanboys seem to deny or simply ignore.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 10, 2018, 09:52:42 am
      And above all, I am very aware of the immense benefits that fossil fuels have brought us, something that EV fanboys seem to deny or simply ignore.
      I am very aware of the immense benefits electron tubes have brought us. So why we don't still use them except small number of fanboys?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 10, 2018, 09:52:58 am
      Because they've been obsoleted by something that's better in every sense?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 10, 2018, 09:53:52 am
      Seriously: after looking at the economics and technology required to have EVs driving around on a large scale I'm quite sure EVs will never become mainstream.
      For the coming decade(s) I agree but "never" is so absolute, perhaps in a few hundred years they have a Futureobtanium battery weighing 50kgs with an energy of 1MWh.
      You never know what will pop up out of the R&D labs, but for now the future of EV is dim and for hybrids is bright.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 10, 2018, 09:56:41 am
      That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 10, 2018, 09:57:56 am
      Because they've been obsoleted by something that's better in every sense?
      Exactly, that's why your previous argument does not have practical meaning. What becomes obsolete gets phased out, regardless of the benefits it brought in the past.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 10, 2018, 10:02:32 am
      Only that EVs aren't better in every sense, if they were nobody would be arguing here now.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 10, 2018, 10:05:15 am
      That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!
      Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 10, 2018, 10:13:47 am
      That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!
      Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.
      I'm a bit skeptic, and I'm not sure I'd like to see the earth covered in "fuel weeds". Jeez, fossil fuels are such a heavens gift, it's going to be hard to find a proper substitute, one that's as good.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 10, 2018, 10:17:33 am
      That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!
      Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.
      Full replacement won't happen because: https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/sep/20/demand-for-biofuels-is-increasing-global-food-prices-says-study (https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/sep/20/demand-for-biofuels-is-increasing-global-food-prices-says-study)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ljwinkler on July 10, 2018, 10:18:47 am
      I think the problem is that people are used to filling a tank in just few minutes. Modern diesel engine (let's say, BMW 520d) can do 1000km on a single tank that is filled in 3 minutes. If my math serves me correctly, to charge a Nissan Leaf (30kWh battery) in 10 minutes you'd need to charge the battery from a 180kW charger (not including losses, etc) (over 700A from your standard 240V socket, or 1500A for colleagues in US).

      The other problem is the electrical grid capacity.
      A standard leaf charger is 6kW so charging your car is equal to having 3 kettles (2kW) running all night. No one makes such amounts of tea :)
      A housing estate having only 100 electric cars may be very difficult to supply not even talking about cities or 'everyone gets an electric car'.

      What about all the goods vehicles or heavy machinery? This is a simple physics: you need X amount of energy to move Y mass by Z distance. If you can't make your trucks/buses/excavators any lighter then you need to have bigger battery banks to extend their work time. Trucks/diggers/etc. work 24/7 (they don't earn money while in standstill) - how companies are going to justify that their fleets need to be useless for greater part of a day?

      I agree that electric cars are great in some niche applications, for people that use cars only for city use/small distances, etc.

      And there is of course the price.
      You can buy a crappy little car for almost no money and make hundreds of kilometres on a single tank.
      Buying old and used electric car and spending a lot of money on a new (or even slightly better) battery may be a stopping point for most of people.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 10, 2018, 10:19:40 am
      That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!
      Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.

      I'm a bit skeptic, and I'm not sure I'd like to see the earth covered in "fuel weeds". Jeez, fossil fuels are such a heavens gift, it's going to be hard to find a proper substitute, one that's as good.
      The good thing is that the earth is already covered in fuel weeds today. It is just a matter of converting leftovers into fuel instead of letting them rot away.

      @wraper: that is old news. Third generation bio-fuels will have the opposite effect. The EU has announced a ban on bio-fuels which use too much farm land.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 10, 2018, 10:23:57 am
      @wraper: that is old news. Third generation bio-fuels will have the opposite effect. The EU has announced a ban on bio-fuels which use too much farm land.
      I know about them. But full replacement? IMO they can be nothing more than supplement.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 10, 2018, 10:26:12 am
      I'm a bit skeptic, and I'm not sure I'd like to see the earth covered in "fuel weeds". Jeez, fossil fuels are such a heavens gift, it's going to be hard to find a proper substitute, one that's as good.
      The good thing is that the earth is already covered in fuel weeds today. It is just a matter of converting leftovers into fuel instead of letting them rot away.
      That certainly sounds good!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 10, 2018, 10:52:32 am
      Who said EVs were silent?  >:D

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwZbvPY_4aE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwZbvPY_4aE)

      Sorry but that noise is a royal PITA.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 10, 2018, 11:01:11 am
      We should use our seas more in growing biofuels, there must be some algae that can be used.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 10, 2018, 11:04:56 am
      @wraper: that is old news. Third generation bio-fuels will have the opposite effect. The EU has announced a ban on bio-fuels which use too much farm land.
      I know about them. But full replacement? IMO they can be nothing more than supplement.
      With less fuel consumption there should be enough leftover plant material to get to a full replacement. The currently available efficient cars are near the mark where fuel efficiency needs to be. The good thing is that the changeover to bio-fuel can happen in a slower pace without throwing existing technology and infrastructure away. From an economic point of view it makes a lot more sense.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 10, 2018, 12:49:57 pm
      It doesn't matter what the context, whenever I hear someone say algae from the sea is the answer I think, "Tuesday is Soylent Green day".
      That movie was made nearly 50 years ago.
      Yup that is another possibility , fat burns well  :o
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 10, 2018, 01:23:49 pm
      It’s interesting to see this discussion play out on an engineering forum the same way I’ve seen it play out over the years in other forums.

      Surely there must be an answer, right? There must be some way we can continue our profligate energy consumption endlessly into the future?   There isn’t.

      3rd gen biofuels?  That belongs with “next gen nuclear”; “next gen batteries”, and cold fusion as vaporware at this point.  I remember 30 years ago when people were saying biofuels were the answer, then it was “next gen biofuels”, now it’s “3rd gen biofuels” ::)

       The numbers don’t lie, biofuels will never fully replace fossil fuels. (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/11/the-biofuel-grind/)  Not even close.

      In the end, the best we can hope for is a mixture of alternative electricity production (some mix of PV, hydro and wind) supplemented by biofuels in some niche areas, like jet fuel, where there is no other option.  If we’re lucky, all that combined will allow continuation of a reasonably technologicallly advanced society. BUT even so, it will only be possible with a drastically smaller population.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 10, 2018, 01:46:14 pm
      BUT even so, it will only be possible with a drastically smaller population.
      That's a taboo, nobody wants to talk about that out loud. Albert Bartlett did, but he's no longer with us. Godwin's law in 3, 2, 1...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 10, 2018, 01:53:43 pm
      The numbers don’t lie, biofuels will never fully replace fossil fuels. (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/11/the-biofuel-grind/)  Not even close.
      According to the numbers provided by Poet-DSM (who actually make bio-fuels so they don't have to hyperbole numbers) it is very possible to replace fossil fuels for transportation using bio-fuels. Not saying electricity isn't any good but electricity is not a good energy carrier for transportation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 10, 2018, 01:57:58 pm
      Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.
      Plentiful water for growing  the raw materials is going to be the problem.
      As mentioned earlier, biofuel from saltwater algae would probably be the answer. There's about 3 times as much ocean area as there is land area.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 10, 2018, 02:02:43 pm
      BUT even so, it will only be possible with a drastically smaller population.
      That's a taboo, nobody wants to talk about that out loud. Albert Bartlett did, but he's no longer with us. Godwin's law in 3, 2, 1...

      Perhaps. But it does not have to be sudden and drastic. It will likely occur, at least initially, with increased mortality and declining life expectancy as occured in Russia following the collapse of the USSR. There are already signs of a similar phenomenon beginning  in the US with recent increased mortality of middle aged males. (http://www.pnas.org/content/112/49/15078.full?sid=b368ca76-5863-417d-84f1-1cb5e1194a23)

      Of course if history is a guide, war, famine, and disease will play a role.

      Regardless of how, it will happen. We’ve far exceeded the long term carrying capacity of the planet.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 10, 2018, 02:28:19 pm
      The numbers don’t lie, biofuels will never fully replace fossil fuels. (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/11/the-biofuel-grind/)  Not even close.
      According to the numbers provided by Poet-DSM (who actually make bio-fuels so they don't have to hyperbole numbers) it is very possible to replace fossil fuels for transportation using bio-fuels.

      Actually Poet-DSM (http://poet-dsm.com/about) has every reason to inflate nunbers and exaggerate the potential of biofuels. POET is a large ethanol producer and Royal DSM is a tech company selling their methods to produce biofuels. Of course they’re going to exaggerate - they want to attract investor capital and research funding. They are not a credible source of numbers. They are selling Hopium.

      More reality check. (http://www.scienceforpeace.ca/files/july07-burkhardt-proof1.pdf)

      Try as we might, we cannot overcome the Earth’s physical limits.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 10, 2018, 02:30:06 pm
      According to the numbers provided by Poet-DSM (who actually make bio-fuels so they don't have to hyperbole numbers)
      I've read that line a few times, and it makes me chuckle every time.  :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 10, 2018, 04:18:16 pm
      The numbers don’t lie, biofuels will never fully replace fossil fuels. (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/11/the-biofuel-grind/)  Not even close.
      According to the numbers provided by Poet-DSM (who actually make bio-fuels so they don't have to hyperbole numbers) it is very possible to replace fossil fuels for transportation using bio-fuels.
      Actually Poet-DSM (http://poet-dsm.com/about) has every reason to inflate nunbers and exaggerate the potential of biofuels. POET is a large ethanol producer and Royal DSM is a tech company selling their methods to produce biofuels. Of course they’re going to exaggerate - they want to attract investor capital and research funding. They are not a credible source of numbers.
      They can't make up numbers at random. In the US there is something called the SEC
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 10, 2018, 04:32:15 pm
      They can't make up numbers at random. In the US there is something called the SEC
      You mean the SEC who oversaw Enron? If a group is making or consuming large amounts of energy, the money involved is huge and nobody can be trusted until the bases of their statements are broken down to see what really lies behind them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 10, 2018, 04:44:29 pm
      The numbers don’t lie, biofuels will never fully replace fossil fuels. (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/11/the-biofuel-grind/)  Not even close.
      According to the numbers provided by Poet-DSM (who actually make bio-fuels so they don't have to hyperbole numbers) it is very possible to replace fossil fuels for transportation using bio-fuels.
      Actually Poet-DSM (http://poet-dsm.com/about) has every reason to inflate nunbers and exaggerate the potential of biofuels. POET is a large ethanol producer and Royal DSM is a tech company selling their methods to produce biofuels. Of course they’re going to exaggerate - they want to attract investor capital and research funding. They are not a credible source of numbers.
      They can't make up numbers at random. In the US there is something called the SEC

      The SEC has no role in regulating claims about the viability or feasibility of a company's product claims. They hardly have the expertise to evaluate physics or engineering claims.

      Their role is enforcing federal securities law (i.e. a company's financial statements, stock and bond issuance and trading) - which they do poorly as coppice points out.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 10, 2018, 05:02:35 pm
      They can't make up numbers at random. In the US there is something called the SEC
      You mean the SEC who oversaw Enron? If a group is making or consuming large amounts of energy, the money involved is huge and nobody can be trusted until the bases of their statements are broken down to see what really lies behind them.
      But they can't operate a boiler room either.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 10, 2018, 05:53:06 pm
      That, and also that fossil fuels won't last forever!
      Fossil fuels are slowly being replaced by bio-fuels already so I'm not worrying about the fossil fuels running out.

      Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 10, 2018, 06:17:48 pm
        And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
      No apart from the million years waiting time we don't have the primeval forests anymore.
      They are dissapearing to be transferred in agricultural sites.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 10, 2018, 07:10:16 pm
      Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
      Can you list some of these amazing recent finds? Everything I have seen shows that people get really excited about a find that might power the world for just a day or two, because those are the only ones being found. They also call into question how realistic the figures for remaining reserves in currently worked fields might be.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 10, 2018, 08:00:08 pm
      Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
      Can you list some of these amazing recent finds? Everything I have seen shows that people get really excited about a find that might power the world for just a day or two, because those are the only ones being found. They also call into question how realistic the figures for remaining reserves in currently worked fields might be.

      This has been explained here before but ignored.

      Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!). (https://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-115/issue-12/special-report-worldwide-report/worldwide-oil-natural-gas-reserves-inch-higher-in-2017.html)

      In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 10, 2018, 09:52:37 pm
      Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
      Can you list some of these amazing recent finds? Everything I have seen shows that people get really excited about a find that might power the world for just a day or two, because those are the only ones being found. They also call into question how realistic the figures for remaining reserves in currently worked fields might be.

      There are untapped oil reserves in and around the San Francisco Bay Area.  Plenty of oil still left in Southern California and in the mid-East of the United States.  There’s a lot left in Canada and doen’t Africa have quite a bit.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 10, 2018, 10:40:03 pm
      Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
      Can you list some of these amazing recent finds? Everything I have seen shows that people get really excited about a find that might power the world for just a day or two, because those are the only ones being found. They also call into question how realistic the figures for remaining reserves in currently worked fields might be.

      There are untapped oil reserves in and around the San Francisco Bay Area.  Plenty of oil still left in Southern California and in the mid-East of the United States.  There’s a lot left in Canada and doen’t Africa have quite a bit.

      Are you just trolling now? I've addressed this claim by you in the past. There is no significant amount of oil left in California. Once again see here (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_pres_dcu_SCA_a.htm). You can see California or any other states reserves.

      For worldwide figures, see the link in my post above or for the latest and greatest full blown report by BP here (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf). The proven reserves have not increased significantly in recent years despite ever increasing world oil consumption.
      Of the proven reserves that do exist - much of them will never be economically or energetically viable to extract.

      Please don't just keep repeating the same nonsense unless you have some data to back it up.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 11, 2018, 05:44:01 am
      Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!). (https://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-115/issue-12/special-report-worldwide-report/worldwide-oil-natural-gas-reserves-inch-higher-in-2017.html)

      In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
      And there is enough oil left for another 40 years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 11, 2018, 06:06:43 am
      Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!). (https://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-115/issue-12/special-report-worldwide-report/worldwide-oil-natural-gas-reserves-inch-higher-in-2017.html)

      In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
      And there is enough oil left for another 40 years.

      That assumes:

      1) Oil consumption does not continue to grow. This will only be true if there is viable, growing alternatives OR if their is a global economic depression.

      2) All proven reserves are economically and energetically viable for extraction - which is extremely unlikely. Much of current oil extraction is already occurring at a financial loss (made possible only by cheap credit) and for many unconventional oil and deep water extraction operations the energy returned on energy invested equation is close to break even. These problems will only escalate as the easy oil fields continue their rapid depletion.

      Even if 1 and 2 occur, what then? What happens if/when we are suddenly out of oil and we have not prepared for that transition?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 11, 2018, 06:07:51 am
      Can we get this topic back on Electric Cars ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 11, 2018, 08:45:15 am
      Can we get this topic back on Electric Cars ?
      On the topic of (the future of) EVs, fossil fuels are very much on topic. Hey, even Musk burns kerosene in his rockets! Irritates the fanboys much? >:D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 11, 2018, 08:53:12 am
      Hey, even Musk burns kerosene in his rockets! Irritates the fanboys much? >:D
      Electric motors don't fly in vacuum. Does not have anything to do with cars on the roads.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 11, 2018, 09:05:01 am
      What happens if/when we are suddenly out of oil and we have not prepared for that transition?
      I hope it won't be sudden, oil prices may rise steady but slowly, hopefully, and we'll have ~ time to adapt to the new circumstances more or less well. I believe that would be happening already, right now, if it were not for the fracking. And I'd very much like that to happen after I'm gone because I like the way I'm living now: in a few minutes I'm going to go to my favourite cafetería which is a 16 km drive, in my SUV with the A/C on.

      Our sons surely are not going to be so lucky in an overpopulated world and without the abundance of cheap energy we have.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 11, 2018, 09:11:06 am
      Fossil fuels running out anytime soon?  Don’t think so.  We keep finding more and more deposits.  And aren’t fossil fuels renewable if one waits long enough?
      Can you list some of these amazing recent finds? Everything I have seen shows that people get really excited about a find that might power the world for just a day or two, because those are the only ones being found. They also call into question how realistic the figures for remaining reserves in currently worked fields might be.

      There are untapped oil reserves in and around the San Francisco Bay Area.  Plenty of oil still left in Southern California and in the mid-East of the United States.  There’s a lot left in Canada and doen’t Africa have quite a bit.

      Are you just trolling now? I've addressed this claim by you in the past. There is no significant amount of oil left in California. Once again see here (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_pres_dcu_SCA_a.htm). You can see California or any other states reserves.

      For worldwide figures, see the link in my post above or for the latest and greatest full blown report by BP here (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf). The proven reserves have not increased significantly in recent years despite ever increasing world oil consumption.
      Of the proven reserves that do exist - much of them will never be economically or energetically viable to extract.

      Please don't just keep repeating the same nonsense unless you have some data to back it up.

      No nonsense here.  It appears you are preprogrammed to not look at the fact, figures and others evidence other have to offer it they don’t agree with your beliefs.  For decades we have been told were are running out of oil reserves.  And for decades that’s proven to be false as we continue to find new oils deposits.

      Please explain to me why you believe Southern California is running out of oil and why you think there is no untapped oil in the San Francisco Bay Area?

      The reality is the world will never run out of oil.  Anyone who says the world is running out of oil is propagating false environmental propaganda with an agenda.  If someone like you would visit California you could see this for yourself.  There are many oil wells which have been shut down not because they were pumped dry.  But because they were not profitabe.  There’s still oil there.  And when oil prices increase they will once again start pumping. 

      Do you have any idea how much oil is in Southern California?  And how that compares to the other states?  Or how much oil lies under the San Francisco Bay Area?

      Rest assured we have so much oil a non EV powered hearse will be able to drive your casket to your grave site.  As well as you children and great grand children.

      https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873 (https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 11, 2018, 09:23:28 am
      Doug, what do you think of this:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi_8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi_8)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 11, 2018, 09:39:36 am
      No nonsense here.  It appears you are preprogrammed to not look at the fact, figures and others evidence other have to offer it they don’t agree with your beliefs.  For decades we have been told were are running out of oil reserves.  And for decades that’s proven to be false as we continue to find new oils deposits.

      Please explain to me why you believe Southern California is running out of oil and why you think there is no untapped oil in the San Francisco Bay Area?

      The reality is the world will never run out of oil.  Anyone who says the world is running out of oil is propagating false environmental propaganda with an agenda.  If someone like you would visit California you could see this for yourself.  There are many oil wells which have been shut down not because they were pumped dry.  But because they were not profitabe.  There’s still oil there.  And when oil prices increase they will once again start pumping. 

      Do you have any idea how much oil is in Southern California?  And how that compares to the other states?  Or how much oil lies under the San Francisco Bay Area?

      Rest assured we have so much oil a non EV powered hearse will be able to drive your casket to your grave site.  As well as you children and great grand children.

      https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873 (https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873)
      Did you post the wrong link, because that one doesn't seem to support your claims?

      Do you think oil is being continuously and rapidly generated within the Earth, because that would seem to be the only way running out is not possible?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 11, 2018, 10:38:16 am
      No nonsense here.  It appears you are preprogrammed to not look at the fact, figures and others evidence other have to offer it they don’t agree with your beliefs.  For decades we have been told were are running out of oil reserves.  And for decades that’s proven to be false as we continue to find new oils deposits.

      Please explain to me why you believe Southern California is running out of oil and why you think there is no untapped oil in the San Francisco Bay Area?

      The reality is the world will never run out of oil.  Anyone who says the world is running out of oil is propagating false environmental propaganda with an agenda.  If someone like you would visit California you could see this for yourself.  There are many oil wells which have been shut down not because they were pumped dry.  But because they were not profitabe.  There’s still oil there.  And when oil prices increase they will once again start pumping. 

      Do you have any idea how much oil is in Southern California?  And how that compares to the other states?  Or how much oil lies under the San Francisco Bay Area?

      Rest assured we have so much oil a non EV powered hearse will be able to drive your casket to your grave site.  As well as you children and great grand children.

      https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873 (https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873)
      Did you post the wrong link, because that one doesn't seem to support your claims?

      Do you think oil is being continuously and rapidly generated within the Earth, because that would seem to be the only way running out is not possible?

      Not sure where our communications break down is.  I never used the word rapidly.  Fossil fuels are and will continually producde until one of the reactants is no longer available.....  It’s just chemistry.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 11, 2018, 11:39:47 am
      Did you post the wrong link, because that one doesn't seem to support your claims?

      Do you think oil is being continuously and rapidly generated within the Earth, because that would seem to be the only way running out is not possible?

      Not sure where our communications break down is.  I never used the word rapidly.  Fossil fuels are and will continually producde until one of the reactants is no longer available.....  It’s just chemistry.
      Since Watt patented the first efficient steam engine in 1769 we've burned through a substantial percentage of the oil, coal and gas that took millions of years to accumulate. Sure the processes that created them are still in place and working, but that isn't going to have any useful impact on our civilisation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 11, 2018, 12:59:03 pm
      Please explain to me why you believe Southern California is running out of oil and why you think there is no untapped oil in the San Francisco Bay Area?

      I'm confused.  Are you unable to read the numbers in the link (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_pres_dcu_SCA_a.htm) I've provided to you several times now?  It shows quite clearly that California's oil reserves are relatively small and falling fast. No, I never said there was *no* untapped oil in SF - I said there were not amounts justifying your claim that there is "plenty of oil" in California.

      Quote
      If someone like you would visit California you could see this for yourself.
      As I've stated before, I lived the first 34 years of my life in CA, both my parents were born their and all my family still lives there. I visit there yearly.
      Quote
        There are many oil wells which have been shut down not because they were pumped dry.
      Yeah, I literally grew up next to them. They produce trivial amounts of oil.  Many of them are still pumping though because of sunk costs.

      Quote
      Do you have any idea how much oil is in Southern California?  And how that compares to the other states?

      Again, are you just trolling or somehow unable to read the link, I've posted several times now?

      Once again - from the link - as of the end of 2016 California has 1,933 million barrels reserve.  At current rates of consumption that would provide the world with less than 20 days of oil (if we are able to suck every last drop of it out which is unlikely).

      From the link above, here is a graph of California's historical decline in it's oil reserves.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=473741;image)

      Did you post the wrong link, because that one doesn't seem to support your claims?

      Yeah - the same info has been presented to him several times in several forms and he seems unable to process it.  Also that link underestimates world oil consumption. It is currently  almost 100 million bbl/day. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_consumption)

      Of course there will always be oil left in the ground. In fact much of the current "proven reserves" will never be extracted since much of if is energetically and economically not viable to extract.

      There is a long history of what happens when a resource a population depends on to maintain its numbers is depleted - whether it's a human population or some other animal.  Whether it's 20 years from now or 40 years - the information is freely available to give a pretty good idea of what's coming.  I think it is cognitive dissonance which just prevents some from acknowledging these facts.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 11, 2018, 04:45:40 pm
      Did you post the wrong link, because that one doesn't seem to support your claims?

      Do you think oil is being continuously and rapidly generated within the Earth, because that would seem to be the only way running out is not possible?

      Not sure where our communications break down is.  I never used the word rapidly.  Fossil fuels are and will continually producde until one of the reactants is no longer available.....  It’s just chemistry.
      Since Watt patented the first efficient steam engine in 1769 we've burned through a substantial percentage of the oil, coal and gas that took millions of years to accumulate. Sure the processes that created them are still in place and working, but that isn't going to have any useful impact on our civilisation.

      You also forgot we burned trees and whale oil.  We still have trees and whales so this is a resource we consumed but was not depleted. 

      We still have plenty of coal and oil, but with with the technology we have to say it would be silly to continue burning it.

      As we have learned there is no perfect source of energy.  Best solution we have to supply the world with the electricity we need is nuclear.  We have a 750 year supply of fuel with the tecnogy we have and an endless supply with next generation nuclear.  We will probably never find a replacement for gas and ICE’s.  The energy density in liquid fossil fuels is just to great.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on July 11, 2018, 04:57:03 pm
      Best solution we have to supply the world with the electricity we need is nuclear.
      Nope. But it's the best way to poison the surface of the earth for the next 100 million years at least.
      That should solve the energy problem due to death of humans.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 11, 2018, 05:13:52 pm
      Since Watt patented the first efficient steam engine in 1769 we've burned through a substantial percentage of the oil, coal and gas that took millions of years to accumulate. Sure the processes that created them are still in place and working, but that isn't going to have any useful impact on our civilisation.

      You also forgot we burned trees and whale oil.  We still have trees and whales so this is a resource we consumed but was not depleted. 

      We still have plenty of coal and oil, but with with the technology we have to say it would be silly to continue burning it.

      As we have learned there is no perfect source of energy.  Best solution we have to supply the world with the electricity we need is nuclear.  We have a 750 year supply of fuel with the tecnogy we have and an endless supply with next generation nuclear.  We will probably never find a replacement for gas and ICE’s.  The energy density in liquid fossil fuels is just to great.
      When the Romans invaded Britain they described it as an oak forest with clearings where settlements sprang up. By the time of Britain's early global exploits oak trees were being felled by the thousand to build ships. By Watt's time Britain was an importer of wood. Watt's original goal for his steam engines was to enable deep coal mining, to deal with Britain's lack of fuel for cooking and staying warm in winter. Humans are voracious.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 11, 2018, 06:14:03 pm
      Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!). (https://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-115/issue-12/special-report-worldwide-report/worldwide-oil-natural-gas-reserves-inch-higher-in-2017.html)
      In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
      And there is enough oil left for another 40 years.

      That assumes:

      1) Oil consumption does not continue to grow. This will only be true if there is viable, growing alternatives OR if their is a global economic depression.

      2) All proven reserves are economically and energetically viable for extraction - which is extremely unlikely. Much of current oil extraction is already occurring at a financial loss (made possible only by cheap credit) and for many unconventional oil and deep water extraction operations the energy returned on energy invested equation is close to break even. These problems will only escalate as the easy oil fields continue their rapid depletion.

      Even if 1 and 2 occur, what then? What happens if/when we are suddenly out of oil and we have not prepared for that transition?
      There is one extremely big flaw in your assumptions: if oil could suddenly run out then oil companies would suddenly be without profit. They are not going to let that happen. So watch carefully in what direction the oil companies are shifting their business.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 11, 2018, 06:58:51 pm
      Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!). (https://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-115/issue-12/special-report-worldwide-report/worldwide-oil-natural-gas-reserves-inch-higher-in-2017.html)
      In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
      And there is enough oil left for another 40 years.

      That assumes:

      1) Oil consumption does not continue to grow. This will only be true if there is viable, growing alternatives OR if their is a global economic depression.

      2) All proven reserves are economically and energetically viable for extraction - which is extremely unlikely. Much of current oil extraction is already occurring at a financial loss (made possible only by cheap credit) and for many unconventional oil and deep water extraction operations the energy returned on energy invested equation is close to break even. These problems will only escalate as the easy oil fields continue their rapid depletion.

      Even if 1 and 2 occur, what then? What happens if/when we are suddenly out of oil and we have not prepared for that transition?
      There is one extremely big flaw in your assumptions: if oil could suddenly run out then oil companies would suddenly be without profit. They are not going to let that happen.

      I see you've changed the subject but ok.  No - that point has nothing to do with my argument - my posit about "suddenly running out of oil" was simply making a point about the flaw in any argument that we should not be focused on renewables or EVs because "we still have plenty of oil".

      Of course oil companies are going to do everything they can to prevent profits from falling. They have been doing that.

      Quote
      So watch carefully in what direction the oil companies are shifting their business.

      Oh, I and many others have been. It's well known that Oil companies have severely cut back on spending for new discoveries (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-exploration/quest-for-new-oil-discoveries-still-on-back-burner-idUSKBN1ET0LX) and that they are increasingly focusing on stock buybacks and increasing shareholder dividends (https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/02/03/flush-with-cash-oil-companies-are-about-to-go-on-a.aspx). They know quite well that their days of making money from selling oil are numbered. In the meantime they are doing what they can to prop up their stock prices (and hence executive compensation) and keep investors happy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 11, 2018, 09:20:10 pm
      Last year reserve estimates grew by about 6 billion bbl. (And the year before reserve estimates decreased by 11 billion bbl!). (https://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-115/issue-12/special-report-worldwide-report/worldwide-oil-natural-gas-reserves-inch-higher-in-2017.html)
      In contrast, the world currently consumes about 35 billion bbl of oil per year.
      And there is enough oil left for another 40 years.
      That assumes:

      1) Oil consumption does not continue to grow. This will only be true if there is viable, growing alternatives OR if their is a global economic depression.

      2) All proven reserves are economically and energetically viable for extraction - which is extremely unlikely. Much of current oil extraction is already occurring at a financial loss (made possible only by cheap credit) and for many unconventional oil and deep water extraction operations the energy returned on energy invested equation is close to break even. These problems will only escalate as the easy oil fields continue their rapid depletion.

      Even if 1 and 2 occur, what then? What happens if/when we are suddenly out of oil and we have not prepared for that transition?
      There is one extremely big flaw in your assumptions: if oil could suddenly run out then oil companies would suddenly be without profit. They are not going to let that happen.
      I see you've changed the subject but ok.  No - that point has nothing to do with my argument - my posit about "suddenly running out of oil" was simply making a point about the flaw in any argument that we should not be focused on renewables or EVs because "we still have plenty of oil".
      I'm not changing the subject. I'm just not accepting we should change into a completely different direction today because of a problem which is decades ahead.

      The way I see it there are several huge problems which need to be overcome to make EVs mainstream: electricity distribution infrastructure, better batteries to give 800km range, way faster charging, same price as an ICE based car (without subsidies). Solving these problems will take decades IF they can all be solved. There are good reasons why ICE based cars are the way they are: people demand features like range and fast filling. Now ofcourse some will chime in and say I'm too rooted into the ICE car. Well: I didn't invent the ICE car! It was there long before I was born and it is a product of over 100 years of development & input from customers. Dismissing features like range and fast filling is like saying a square wheel works just as well as a round one if you push harder :palm: .

      Even bio-fuel (ethanol) looks better. The factories to process plant waste are up & running and by the time oil prices rise due to shortage this technology is ready to be  phased in as a gradual replacement. No need to buy new cars and install a new distribution infrastructure. All the necessary plant waste is available.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 11, 2018, 11:31:34 pm
      I'm not changing the subject. I'm just not accepting we should change into a completely different direction today because of a problem which is decades ahead.

      So when would you suggest the transition to non-fossil fuel modes of transportation begin?  The most optimistic estimates put severe oil shortages 40 years from now at current rates of consumption. For reasons I presented a few posts ago, that is way too optimistic but even if true that leaves little time for the transition.

      When would you put it off to? 20 years? 10 years? before the oil becomes too scarce?

      IMO we have already waited far too long. The 1970s, when the problem first became widely recognized was the time to begin serious changes. It's already too late. We're now in an energy trap (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/the-energy-trap/).


      Quote
      Dismissing features like range and fast filling is like saying a square wheel works just as well as a round one if you push harder

      Dismissing the problems with ICE vehicles like the inability to easily refuel at home, the dirty emmisions, and reliance on fossil fuels and continuing their promotion is like continuing the cutting down of trees on Easter Island so that just one more statue can be erected. :palm:

      Quote
      Even bio-fuel (ethanol) looks better.
      As previously explained, biofuel production on any useful scale requires huge fossil fuel inputs. It is no solution.  At least with EVs - there is the possibility of the electricity being generated without fossil fuels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 11, 2018, 11:40:45 pm
      Best solution we have to supply the world with the electricity we need is nuclear.
      Nope. But it's the best way to poison the surface of the earth for the next 100 million years at least.
      That should solve the energy problem due to death of humans.

      That’s impossible with NextGen Nuclear.  The half life of the fuel on the order 2-3 years.  Should there ever be a Chernobyl or Fukushima scale accident in 20 - 25 years the fuel will have decayed away.

      Not sure where you ace comming up with your 100 million year number.  It violates the laws of physics.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 12, 2018, 05:48:54 am
      I'm not changing the subject. I'm just not accepting we should change into a completely different direction today because of a problem which is decades ahead.

      So when would you suggest the transition to non-fossil fuel modes of transportation begin?
      It has already begun decades ago. The fuel I'm putting in my car today consists of 5% to 10% of bio fuel.
      Quote
      Quote
      Even bio-fuel (ethanol) looks better.
      As previously explained, biofuel production on any useful scale requires huge fossil fuel inputs. It is no solution.  At least with EVs - there is the possibility of the electricity being generated without fossil fuels.
      Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 12, 2018, 05:59:33 am
      Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?

      Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 12, 2018, 07:15:00 am
      Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
      Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
      You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway. Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel. You are grasping straws here  ;) Anyway, this has been discussed before.

      The way I see it bio-fuel currently has the least technical obstacles to greatly reduce and eventually replace the use of fossil fuels for cars, trucks and airplanes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 12, 2018, 09:15:32 am
      Why nor hear from an expert?

      https://youtu.be/VQlbiQj_49o
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 12, 2018, 09:18:12 am
      How much oil is left in the world?  Let’s hear from an expert who has no agenda otther than sharing the facts.

      https://youtu.be/jntsT0BdxDw
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 12, 2018, 09:45:20 am
      Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
      Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
      You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway. Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel. You are grasping straws here  ;) Anyway, this has been discussed before.

      The way I see it bio-fuel currently has the least technical obstacles to greatly reduce and eventually replace the use of fossil fuels for cars, trucks and airplanes.
      If you want to see the obstacles, perhaps you could look into why the earlier generations of bio-fuels didn't use plant residue. I mean, it the obvious thing, isn't it? Get fuel from these mountains of waste, rather than starve people in poor countries by driving the price of grain through the roof. Surely that would be the first step? It wasn't, and not without cause.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 12, 2018, 09:56:24 am
      Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
      Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
      You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway. Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel. You are grasping straws here  ;) Anyway, this has been discussed before.

      The way I see it bio-fuel currently has the least technical obstacles to greatly reduce and eventually replace the use of fossil fuels for cars, trucks and airplanes.
      If you want to see the obstacles, perhaps you could look into why the earlier generations of bio-fuels didn't use plant residue. I mean, it the obvious thing, isn't it? Get fuel from these mountains of waste, rather than starve people in poor countries by driving the price of grain through the roof. Surely that would be the first step? It wasn't, and not without cause.

      Yes it would be nice, but only if weren’t for the law as of chemistry and physics it would be a fantastic solution as would word peace, feeding the hungry and ending homeless.  Only problem with bio is why one does the energy calculations it just dosn’t scale.  And then there’s the issue of cost.  How much are the bio-fuel producers paying the farmers per gallon of fuel being produced from what they have grown?   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 12, 2018, 10:08:23 am
      Why nor hear from an expert?
      Expert in what? Speaking narrative on youtube? Not to say he said a lot of false information, at least in second video which I partially watched.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 12, 2018, 10:15:36 am
      Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
      Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
      You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway. Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel. You are grasping straws here  ;) Anyway, this has been discussed before.

      The way I see it bio-fuel currently has the least technical obstacles to greatly reduce and eventually replace the use of fossil fuels for cars, trucks and airplanes.
      If you want to see the obstacles, perhaps you could look into why the earlier generations of bio-fuels didn't use plant residue. I mean, it the obvious thing, isn't it? Get fuel from these mountains of waste, rather than starve people in poor countries by driving the price of grain through the roof. Surely that would be the first step? It wasn't, and not without cause.
      It isn't easy to convert cellulose into ethanol so that is why the earlier methods are based on how beer & whine have been made for centuries. Nowadays over a dozen of companies are working on this and several have the first large scale factories which can convert cellulose into ethanol up & running. Basically the technology for third generation bio-fuels based on plant waste is out of the laboratory stage.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 12, 2018, 10:41:30 am
      It isn't easy to convert cellulose into ethanol so that is why the earlier methods are based on how beer & whine have been made for centuries. Nowadays over a dozen of companies are working on this and several have the first large scale factories which can convert cellulose into ethanol up & running. Basically the technology for third generation bio-fuels based on plant waste is out of the laboratory stage.
      Its actually really easy to convert cellulose to ethanol. That isn't the problem. The problem is the energy calculations. They need to put vast amounts of energy into the conversion. This is not an industry process efficiency issue. Its the basic chemistry, which won't change. So, you now have something that might make sense as a an energy storage mechanism for non-persistent renewable energy, like solar or wind, but you don't have a primary fuel.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 12, 2018, 10:50:58 am
      It isn't easy to convert cellulose into ethanol so that is why the earlier methods are based on how beer & whine have been made for centuries. Nowadays over a dozen of companies are working on this and several have the first large scale factories which can convert cellulose into ethanol up & running. Basically the technology for third generation bio-fuels based on plant waste is out of the laboratory stage.
      Its actually really easy to convert cellulose to ethanol. That isn't the problem. The problem is the energy calculations. They need to put vast amounts of energy into the conversion. This is not an industry process efficiency issue.
      There are several methods and I strongly doubt the modern plants will use an energy inefficient one. The DSM part of Poet-DSM has developed a special enzym to break down cellulose.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 12, 2018, 11:16:56 am
      Its actually really easy to convert cellulose to ethanol. That isn't the problem. The problem is the energy calculations. They need to put vast amounts of energy into the conversion. This is not an industry process efficiency issue.
      There are several methods and I strongly doubt the modern plants will use an energy inefficient one. The DSM part of Poet-DSM has developed a special enzym to break down cellulose.
      You do understand enough chemistry to realise that you only get from ash to fuel by pumping in a lot of energy, don't you?

      Various groups have developed enzymes and bacteria to make the conversion of plant waste to fuel more of a high throughput industrial process, but you can't beat the basic physics of chemical bond energies.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 12, 2018, 12:48:15 pm
      I think the misunderstanding is at your side. Cellulose is a hydrogen / carbon chain just like Ethanol. You don't need to go from ash to fuel you just need to re-arrange a few atoms in a molecule. The energy present in the cellulose doesn't dissapear.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 12, 2018, 01:40:23 pm
      I think the misunderstanding is at your side. Cellulose is a hydrogen / carbon chain just like Ethanol. You don't need to go from ash to fuel you just need to re-arrange a few atoms in a molecule. The energy present in the cellulose doesn't dissapear.
      From what I have read, energy spent to produce needed enzymes is so high, whole process becomes energy negative.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 12, 2018, 02:47:34 pm
      I think the misunderstanding is at your side. Cellulose is a hydrogen / carbon chain just like Ethanol. You don't need to go from ash to fuel you just need to re-arrange a few atoms in a molecule. The energy present in the cellulose doesn't dissapear.
      From what I have read, energy spent to produce needed enzymes is so high, whole process becomes energy negative.
      But then it wouldn't make sense to build mass production factories. But the factories are there so I guess some have solved that problem.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 12, 2018, 03:58:52 pm
      Why nor hear from an expert?

      Expert in what? Making slick youtube videos to attract viewers?

      He's certainly not an expert in world oil reserves.

      The IEA and BP oil on the other hand  ARE and I've repeatedly posted links with their numbers which are in agreement with others which can be found many places on the net. You continue to ignore those links. Are you saying the IEA and BP are wrong?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 12, 2018, 04:21:39 pm
      Why nor hear from an expert?

      Expert in what? Making slick youtube videos to attract viewers?

      He's certainly not an expert in world oil reserves.

      The IEA and BP oil on the other hand  ARE and I've repeatedly posted links with their numbers which are in agreement with others which can be found many places on the net. You continue to ignore those links. Are you saying the IEA and BP are wrong?
      In second video at 4:45 he said that global renewable energy share is 2.8% which total BS and is order of magnitude off the real number.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: richard.cs on July 12, 2018, 04:32:22 pm
      In second video at 4:45 he said that global renewable energy share is 2.8% which total BS and is order of magnitude off the real number.

      I've not watched the video, was he talking about electrical generation mix (which is clearly >>2.8%) or total world energy use? The latter includes transportation (dominated by oil), steelmaking (dominated by coal) and cement manufacture (gas/oil/coal depending on kiln design) amongst others and 2.8% is rather more believable.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 12, 2018, 04:38:49 pm
      Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
      Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
      You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway.

      No I'm not. You asked why fossil fuels would be needed for biofuels and I answered. Of course,  fossil fuels are also required to produce the current large food crop yields.

      Quote
      Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel.
        It's not? Please provide information on another way to produce large amounts of Nitrogen containing fertilizers or some other substitute.

      Biofuels will likely play a small role in the future - they will have to if we want planes to fly. The military will and is seeing to that. This is despite the fact that at best the current large scale biofuel production has at best a net energy balance of 1.25 and requires large fossil fuel inputs.

      Look, it's really not that complicated. The ONLY reason world population has been able to grow exponentially over the past 100 years is due to the discovery and utilization of millions of years of stored solar energy in the form of fossil fuels. We've almost exhausted the easily extracted portion of that resource and even much of the difficult to extract portion. It's a basic ecological principle that population is directly proportional to energy utilization.

      (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jeOo1oL9HVA/U-CLMnU1JuI/AAAAAAAAHlw/1ie06iuq8mE/s1600/world-energy-consumption-by-source.png)

      (http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-DnNxJJ7gLmY/U96ETPuJXpI/AAAAAAAAHk4/PLLxCJscIYI/s1600/Pop_Energy_1820.png)

      The bottom line is we've far exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet and the only reason the overshoot has been able to proceed so far is due to the discovery and utilization of a FINITE high density energy store.

      Thought the exact timing is unknowable, the likely outcome is clear:

      (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-uDkdJeGNKtg/U96EBWGylgI/AAAAAAAAHkw/Kxl-9jl_0iM/s1600/Pop_with_overshoot.png)

      Source of figures (http://energyhole.blogspot.com/) which is him. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Meadows)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 12, 2018, 04:51:03 pm
      Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
      Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
      You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway.

      No I'm not. You asked why fossil fuels would be needed for biofuels and I answered. Of course,  fossil fuels are also required to produce the current large food crop yields.

      Quote
      Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel.
        It's not? Please provide information on another way to produce large amounts of Nitrogen containing fertilizers or some other substitute.
      Fertilizer is currently made from mostly natural gas but it can also be made from coal. But those are not the key ingredient. What is needed is Ammonia which can also be gotton from other places besides fossil fuels. First hit from Google:
      http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2005/08/28-isnt-fertilizer-made-from-crude-oil.html (http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2005/08/28-isnt-fertilizer-made-from-crude-oil.html)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 12, 2018, 05:08:04 pm
      What is needed is Ammonia which can also be gotton from other places besides fossil fuels.

      Duh. Of course. There are many sources of nitrogen. Of course plant growth does not require fossil fuel inputs. Duh.

      The point is that large scale production of nitrogen fertilizer cannot be accomplished without large inputs of natural gas as well as petrochemical based insecticides, herbicides and fungacides.  And large scale mechanized farming and crop transport requires large oil (gasoline/diesel) inputs.

      The "green revolution" that began in the 1940s and has allowed large increase in crop yields was only possible because of the utilization of large fossil fuel inputs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 12, 2018, 05:16:32 pm
      In second video at 4:45 he said that global renewable energy share is 2.8% which total BS and is order of magnitude off the real number.

      I've not watched the video, was he talking about electrical generation mix (which is clearly >>2.8%) or total world energy use? The latter includes transportation (dominated by oil), steelmaking (dominated by coal) and cement manufacture (gas/oil/coal depending on kiln design) amongst others and 2.8% is rather more believable.
      Renewable energy is around 10% of primary energy consumption and around 20% of final energy consumption. All energy, not just electrical.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 12, 2018, 05:30:54 pm
      What is needed is Ammonia which can also be gotton from other places besides fossil fuels.

      Duh. Of course. There are many sources of nitrogen. Of course plant growth does not require fossil fuel inputs. Duh.

      The point is that large scale production of nitrogen fertilizer cannot be accomplished without large inputs of natural gas.  And large scale mechanized farming and crop transport requires large oil (gasoline/diesel) inputs.
      But that still doesn't say it cannot be done without use of fossil fuels. Currently using natural gas is the most economic way to make fertilizer. But again: not the only way! The same goes for farming & transportation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 12, 2018, 05:40:10 pm
      But that still doesn't say it cannot be done without use of fossil fuels. Currently using natural gas is the most economic way to make fertilizer. But again: not the only way! The same goes for farming & transportation.

      Of course. No one said it could not. You seem to be missing the point which is that producing biofuels on a scale large enough to replace gasoline and diesel at anywhere close to current use levels is impossible without large fossil fuel inputs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 12, 2018, 05:59:40 pm
      But that still doesn't say it cannot be done without use of fossil fuels. Currently using natural gas is the most economic way to make fertilizer. But again: not the only way! The same goes for farming & transportation.
      Of course. No one said it could not. You seem to be missing the point which is that producing biofuels on a scale large enough to replace gasoline and diesel at anywhere close to current use levels is impossible without large fossil fuel inputs.
      That is your opinion based on processes which are economic in the current situation. There is a difference between more expensive and impossible. What you are saying is that fertilizer made from something else than natural gas (which is only used to produce the ingredient Ammonia) is more expensive given the current prices of natural gas. Well, that is only logical. Basically you are making my point when I say 3rd generation bio-fuels are the way to go. When fertilizer becomes more expensive more parts of the plant will need to be used which is where 3rd generation bio-fuels will help to keep food prices low. After all 'we' will need to continue to grow food one way or another.

      BTW: one part you have missed in my previous posts is that fuel consumption also needs to go down. The US could easely reduce it's fuel consumption by half by switching to more efficient cars. In Europe probably around 30% of fuel can be saved. This is something people can do today.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 12, 2018, 07:06:08 pm
      That is your opinion based on processes which are economic in the current situation.

      No, it is not an opinion. It is a well established fact that current agriculture is highly dependent on fossil fuel inputs. It's not just a matter of economics.

      This is easy to verify by a quick internet search but for the lazy, this is a good start (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2935130/)

      There are simply no methods currently to produce biofuels on a large scale without large fossil fuel inputs. Period. Full stop.

      It is your wishful thinking that mythical "3rd gen" biofuels will allow that but you've offered no evidence of that.

      There are lots of what ifs and maybes and other manifestations of hope that somehow, someday, technology will rescue us from this predicament. There has been intensive research for at least 40 years to find a biofuel substitute for fossil fuels. So far there has been nothing scaleable. Could it happen, sure it's possible. So is a breakthrough in nuclear fusion, battery technology, etc, etc.  If wishes were horses...

      Quote
      fuel consumption also needs to go down.

      Yes. Absolutely it does. And it will go down, way down by necessity -  and with lots of kicking and screaming along the way....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 12, 2018, 07:33:53 pm
      BTW: one part you have missed in my previous posts is that fuel consumption also needs to go down. The US could easely reduce it's fuel consumption by half by switching to more efficient cars. In Europe probably around 30% of fuel can be saved. This is something people can do today.
      They should require all new cars to get at least 30 MPG highway. That is already achievable without any exotic technology. Then gradually increase the requirement over time so it doesn't stagnate.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 12, 2018, 07:46:39 pm
      That is your opinion based on processes which are economic in the current situation.
      No, it is not an opinion. It is a well established fact that current agriculture is highly dependent on fossil fuel inputs. It's not just a matter of economics.

      This is easy to verify by a quick internet search but for the lazy, this is a good start (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2935130/)

      There are simply no methods currently to produce biofuels on a large scale without large fossil fuel inputs. Period. Full stop.
      You are still ignoring that 3rd generation bio-fuels don't need any fertilizer because it piggy-bags along with food production (which does need fertilizer). The raw material comes for free along with the food! I'm staggered how deeply embedded the thought is that we need to grow crops specifically for bio-fuels. WE DON'T! That is the whole beauty of 3rd generation bio-fuels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 12, 2018, 08:32:04 pm
      You are still ignoring that 3rd generation bio-fuels don't need any fertilizer because it piggy-bags along with food production (which does need fertilizer).
      That is non-sensical. If it piggy backs on food production (and what exactly does that mean) - then it DOES require large fossil fuel inputs.  The biomass simply would not be available on any meaningful scale without fossil fuel inputs. 

      You are essentially trying to make a "free energy" argument. :palm:

      It's like mounting a windmill on the roof of my car and claiming the electricity produced does not require any fossil fuels - after all it's just piggy backing on the car... ::)

      Once again - large fossil fuel inputs are an absolute requirement for any large scale crop yields - whether for food or fuel.

      If you disagree then please provide a documented example of large scale biofuel production done without fossil fuel inputs.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 12, 2018, 10:04:08 pm
      Why nor hear from an expert?
      Expert in what? Speaking narrative on youtube? Not to say he said a lot of false information, at least in second video which I partially watched.

      What information in the second video is false?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 12, 2018, 10:06:17 pm
      It isn't easy to convert cellulose into ethanol so that is why the earlier methods are based on how beer & whine have been made for centuries. Nowadays over a dozen of companies are working on this and several have the first large scale factories which can convert cellulose into ethanol up & running. Basically the technology for third generation bio-fuels based on plant waste is out of the laboratory stage.
      Its actually really easy to convert cellulose to ethanol. That isn't the problem. The problem is the energy calculations. They need to put vast amounts of energy into the conversion. This is not an industry process efficiency issue. Its the basic chemistry, which won't change. So, you now have something that might make sense as a an energy storage mechanism for non-persistent renewable energy, like solar or wind, but you don't have a primary fuel.

      Exactly.....  Unles somehow these companies have found a way to violate the laws of chemistry and physics
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 12, 2018, 10:11:38 pm
      Why nor hear from an expert?
      Expert in what? Speaking narrative on youtube? Not to say he said a lot of false information, at least in second video which I partially watched.

      What information in the second video is false?
      Say BS number on renewable energy share as I already said.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 13, 2018, 05:56:00 am
      Mtdoc, quoting that pile of trash would be an insult to the intelligence of this thread's participants. Yes, humanity is probably screwed long-term if we don't reallocate resources and reduce our usage of cheap energy, but it's not going to happen on the scale that Dennis Meadows thinks. He predicted that world energy consumption would peak around last year, and then somehow dive down to pre-industrial levels, but has no explanation for how that would happen. Is he hoping for a nuclear war?

      AFAIK, he has never claimed to know the exact timing of anything (and if he did and was wrong, why does that make him “a pile of trash”?).  Nevertheless the Meadows et. al. 1972 Limits to Growth  (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth) model forecast has been remarkably prescient. 

      (And BTW I didn’t quote him, I just borrowed some factual pics from a blog post)

      Based on your language, you seem to have an overly emotional attachment to the idea that there can be uninterrupted infinite growth on a finite planet. It’s ok, it’s a common ailment.

      (https://us.resiliencesystem.org/sites/default/files/u257/Limits%20of%20Growth-graph.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 13, 2018, 07:52:59 am
      The earth's land surface area is ~ 150e6 km² (**), total world energy consumption is about 140 TWh per year (*), assuming that at any time only 1/3 of 1/3 (***) of that surface is being fully irradiated by the sun, if we put on average 1m² of PV per km², that would be 150e6[km²]*0.1[kW/km²]/3/3 = 1.66 GW => 14.6 TWh/year. It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

      (*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
      (**) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
      (***) I pulled that figure out of thin air: only half the earth sees the sun, and only a fraction of that half is irradiated ~ perpendicularly.



      Edit 6/3/2019: There's a mistake here: total world energy consumption is NOT 140 TWh/year, but 140e3 TWh/year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 13, 2018, 08:07:32 am
      Mtdoc, quoting that pile of trash would be an insult to the intelligence of this thread's participants. Yes, humanity is probably screwed long-term if we don't reallocate resources and reduce our usage of cheap energy, but it's not going to happen on the scale that Dennis Meadows thinks. He predicted that world energy consumption would peak around last year, and then somehow dive down to pre-industrial levels, but has no explanation for how that would happen. Is he hoping for a nuclear war?

      AFAIK, he has never claimed to know the exact timing of anything (and if he did and was wrong, why does that make him “a pile of trash”?).  Nevertheless the Meadows et. al. 1972 Limits to Growth  (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth) model forecast has been remarkably prescient. 

      (And BTW I didn’t quote him, I just borrowed some factual pics from a blog post)

      Based on your language, you seem to have an overly emotional attachment to the idea that there can be uninterrupted infinite growth on a finite planet. It’s ok, it’s a common ailment.

      (https://us.resiliencesystem.org/sites/default/files/u257/Limits%20of%20Growth-graph.jpg)

      mtdoc

      The graph you presented appears to be based on 40 year old data.  Any reason you are not presenting something with more recent data?  We certainly have it.

      Using World Heath Data from the past 250 years indicates the graphs you have are wrong.  World population will continue to increst to 10 billion and remain steady.  What will continue to grow will be the consumption of energy, specificity electrica energy.   Less than 2 billion people today live in electrical luxury.  the other six billion are trying to achieve it and they are getting there.

      It’s easy for one who lives in electrical luxury to tell others they should not.  But who are they to say who should have an who should have not.

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 13, 2018, 08:11:55 am
      You are still ignoring that 3rd generation bio-fuels don't need any fertilizer because it piggy-bags along with food production (which does need fertilizer).
      That is non-sensical. If it piggy backs on food production (and what exactly does that mean) - then it DOES require large fossil fuel inputs.  The biomass simply would not be available on any meaningful scale without fossil fuel inputs. 

      You are essentially trying to make a "free energy" argument. :palm:

      It's like mounting a windmill on the roof of my car and claiming the electricity produced does not require any fossil fuels - after all it's just piggy backing on the car... ::)

      Once again - large fossil fuel inputs are an absolute requirement for any large scale crop yields - whether for food or fuel.

      If you disagree then please provide a documented example of large scale biofuel production done without fossil fuel inputs.
      You keep turning the argument around. Keeping food production up is a problem that needs to be solved (period) but there are still several decades to solve that problem. I can't foresee how food is grown over 30 years from now. But I do know that using more from the plants is key to keep prices down. It is not a 'free energy' argument because I'm not trying to make energy appear out of thin air. I can go to a farm and point my finger at the waste which is available to make bio-fuel from.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 13, 2018, 08:15:32 am
      The earth's land surface area is ~ 150e6 km² (**), total world energy consumption is about 140 TWh per year (*), assuming that at any time only 1/3 of 1/3 (***) of that surface is being fully irradiated by the sun, if we put on average 1m² of PV per km², that would be 150e6[km²]*0.1[kW/km²]/3/3 = 1.66 GW => 14.6 TWh/year. It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

      (*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
      (**) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
      (***) I pulled that figure out of thin air: only half the earth sees the sun, and only a fraction of that half is irradiated ~ perpendicularly.

      ANd to do what you are proposing would take all of the copper, silicon iron, aluminum and concrete that’s ever been mined or poured int he history of the world.

      And then you have another problem.....  Since you would be captureing so much of the suns energy to produce electrity will three be enough of he sun’s energy available for plants and for the growing of food.

      Remember your physics......  Conservation of energy.  Or do you want to live in a world with enough electricity and not enough food?

       

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 13, 2018, 08:19:37 am
      The graph you presented appears to be based on 40 year old data.  Any reason you are not presenting something with more recent data?  We certainly have it.
      I agree. Using data from a dooms-day preacher isn't accurate.
      Quote
      World population will continue to increst to 10 billion and remain steady. 
      More likely to decline. Some countries will see a severely shrinking population in the next few decades. In Europe a lot of children where born after WW2 and this generation is about to die. For example: In the Netherlands the increase in population is already driven by people migrating to the country and not due to birth of children. People with luxury and jobs don't seem to have much interest in making babies.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 13, 2018, 08:32:13 am
      The graph you presented appears to be based on 40 year old data.  Any reason you are not presenting something with more recent data?  We certainly have it.
      I agree. Using data from a dooms-day preacher isn't accurate.
      Quote
      World population will continue to increst to 10 billion and remain steady. 
      More likely to decline. Some countries will see a severely shrinking population in the next few decades. In Europe a lot of children where born after WW2 and this generation is about to die. For example: In the Netherlands the increase in population is already driven by people migrating to the country and not due to birth of children. People with luxury and jobs don't seem to have much interest in making babies.

      World heath physician Hans Rosling’s Gap Minder allows anyone in the world to access 250 years of world heath data.  It’s the best data we have.  Birth rates are already on the decline.  Wht’s not is electricty usage.

      With the rate we are consuming electricty nuclear is the best solution we have.
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 13, 2018, 09:46:43 am
      With the rate we are consuming electricty nuclear is the best solution we have.
      You are probably right about that. Unfortunately politics will be too slow to see that with the end result being a solution which is not as good as it could be. We really need to get into new and safe nuclear power plants at least as a plan-B.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 13, 2018, 09:50:30 am
      Boiling water FTW  :-DD
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 13, 2018, 10:05:09 am
      The earth's land surface area is ~ 150e6 km² (**), total world energy consumption is about 140 TWh per year (*), assuming that at any time only 1/3 of 1/3 (***) of that surface is being fully irradiated by the sun, if we put on average 1m² of PV per km², that would be 150e6[km²]*0.1[kW/km²]/3/3 = 1.66 GW => 14.6 TWh/year. It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

      ANd to do what you are proposing would take all of the copper, silicon iron, aluminum and concrete that’s ever been mined or poured int he history of the world.

      And then you have another problem.....  Since you would be captureing so much of the suns energy to produce electrity will three be enough of he sun’s energy available for plants and for the growing of food.

      Remember your physics......  Conservation of energy.  Or do you want to live in a world with enough electricity and not enough food?

      IDK... but 10 sq metres out of every 1 million sq metres (1 km²) is a very tiny % me thinks.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on July 13, 2018, 11:18:29 am
      ANd to do what you are proposing would take all of the copper, silicon iron, aluminum and concrete that’s ever been mined or poured int he history of the world.
      I'd suggest using polymer barrier thin film solar cells. Either just roll them out flat on the ground and steak them, or put a one time inflatable wedge under them which fills with a foaming polymer during installation to get a gradient. Use robots to clean them. Very little concrete, stainless steel or aluminium needed. As for copper, use medium voltage DC inside the PV fields.
      Quote
      And then you have another problem.....  Since you would be captureing so much of the suns energy to produce electrity will three be enough of he sun’s energy available for plants and for the growing of food.
      We've fucked up so much of the earth surface it doesn't really matter, de-desertification happens on geological time scales. In the mean time, we can use the deserts for solar. Just need to bury a few hippies first.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 13, 2018, 11:37:12 am
      The earth's land surface area is ~ 150e6 km² (**), total world energy consumption is about 140 TWh per year (*), assuming that at any time only 1/3 of 1/3 (***) of that surface is being fully irradiated by the sun, if we put on average 1m² of PV per km², that would be 150e6[km²]*0.1[kW/km²]/3/3 = 1.66 GW => 14.6 TWh/year. It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

      (*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
      (**) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
      (***) I pulled that figure out of thin air: only half the earth sees the sun, and only a fraction of that half is irradiated ~ perpendicularly.

      ANd to do what you are proposing would take all of the copper, silicon iron, aluminum and concrete that’s ever been mined or poured int he history of the world.

      And then you have another problem.....  Since you would be captureing so much of the suns energy to produce electrity will three be enough of he sun’s energy available for plants and for the growing of food.

      Remember your physics......  Conservation of energy.  Or do you want to live in a world with enough electricity and not enough food?

      I have no words  :palm: EDIT: actually I have some. If you think that we won't have enough sun energy left for plants after covering 10ppm of the land (let's even make it tenfold of that), I have doubts about your sanity.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 13, 2018, 02:04:19 pm
      I have no words  :palm: EDIT: actually I have some. If you think that we won't have enough sun energy left for plants after covering 10ppm of the land (let's even make it tenfold of that), I have doubts about your sanity.
      Right. The amount of energy in the Atlantic Gulf stream is comparable to the entire energy usage of our current civilisation, and that's just a tiny part of the energy circulating in natural processes on the Earth. There is plenty of energy available to tap from nature. We are just really really bad at being able to tap into it efficiently, in the required places, at the required times.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 13, 2018, 03:18:22 pm
      The graph you presented appears to be based on 40 year old data.

      No, that is incorrect. Please have a look at the link I provided and look again at the graphThe original computer models and the various possible future scenarios presented in the 1972 Limits to growth are not data but models developed by a team of scientists.  The graph presented shows actual data up through 2000 (18 years ago). For the 28 years of overlap (the thicker lines) the agreement between the model and the actual data is very, very good. I do not have  a similar graph with more recent data overlayed on the original model but anyone can look at that graph and compare it to current data and see that the fit continues to be very good.

      One thing to understand - just like modelling a complex circuit in LT Spice is never meant to be an exact replication of the real world circuit behavior, the Limits to Growth models were never claimed to be able to predict exactly the timing or magnitude of future changes. Nevertheless, to date, they have been remarkably close.

      If you (or anyone else)are actually interested in learning the truth about the Limits to Growth modeling method and about more recent developments related to that there are several good resources:

      The Limits to Growth (https://collections.dartmouth.edu/published-derivatives/meadows/pdf/meadows_ltg-001.pdf) Free online PDF
      The Limits to Growth 30-Year update (http://peakoilindia.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Limits-to-Growth-updated.pdf) Free online PDF
      The Limits to Growth Revisited (https://www.amazon.com/Limits-Growth-Revisited-SpringerBriefs-Energy/dp/1441994157) 2011 Review of the issues by University of Florence chemistry professor Ugo Bardi

      Quote
      Using World Heath Data from the past 250 years indicates the graphs you have are wrong.
      It's useless to make such claims without a link. ::) 
      And which part of which graph exactly?

       
      Quote
      World population will continue to increst to 10 billion and remain steady.  What will continue to grow will be the consumption of energy, specificity electrica energy.   

      So, it appears that you are one of those that believes infinite growth on a finite planet is possible. Please explain how that will work?

      Specifically:

      Why will human population get to 10 billion and stop and remain steady? 
      (There is no example from nature of such a thing occurring for any population of living organisms. Ever.)

      Do you believe the resources that humans utilize for food production and technology are inexhaustible?  If so, please explain the mechanism of that?

      Do you believe that pollutants created by human activity will not continue to rise?  If so, please explain why and how?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 13, 2018, 03:33:07 pm
      You keep turning the argument around.
      No, you made the claim that biofuels could be produced without fossil fuel inputs and I showed why that is factually incorrect. Instead of acknowledging that it's you who have changed the argument.

      Quote
      I can go to a farm and point my finger at the waste which is available to make bio-fuel from.
      Please provide and example of large scale biofuel production solely from farm waste.If you can do that, then please do some basic math and tell us how that will scale enough to replace gasoline and diesel.  Unless you can do that, your argument is baseless.

      I agree. Using data from a dooms-day preacher isn't accurate.
      First of all the data isn't from Meadows, he just posted it. The original sources are available. And which data are you referring to anyways? World population? Historical energy use?  This data is well known and easily found. If you have a source of data that refutes it, please provide.  Ad hominem attacks are the sign of a losing argument and I expected better from you. :--
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 13, 2018, 03:50:52 pm
      It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption[/b]. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

      According to physicist Tom MurphyIt would only take PV panels covering approximately 0.5% of the Earth's land to provide all of society's electricity needs.  (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/12/wind-fights-solar/) Even if electricity demand increased by 10X with wider EV adoption, it would still mean just 5%.  No one has ever proposed that all human energy needs should be met with PV.

      The black spots on the map below represent how much land would need to be covered with PV to cover current electricity demand. (FWIW - I do not think this will ever happen for many reason's but not because it's not theoretically possible)

      (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Solar_land_area.png)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 13, 2018, 04:01:50 pm
      It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption[/b]. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

      Your assumptions and calculations are wildly incorrect.

      It would only take PV panels covering approximately 0.5% of the Earth's land to provide all of society's electricity needs.  (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/12/wind-fights-solar/) Even if electricity demand increased by 10X with wider EV adoption, it would still mean just 5%.  No one has ever proposed that all human energy needs should be met with PV.

      The black spots on the map below represent how much land would need to be covered with PV to cover current electricity demand. (FWIW - I do not think this will ever happen for many reason's but not because it's not theoretically possible)
      ...
      It sounds as if you didn't notice notice that his number is much lower than yours. 10m²/km² is 10 ppm or 0.001%. covering 0.5% sounds like insanely high number. Global land area is 1.483e+14 m2
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 13, 2018, 04:09:25 pm
      It follows that we'd need ~ 10x as much PVs (10m²/km²) of land surface to cover total world energy consumption[/b]. Some more PVs could go on the sea.

      Your assumptions and calculations are wildly incorrect.

      It would only take PV panels covering approximately 0.5% of the Earth's land to provide all of society's electricity needs.  (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/12/wind-fights-solar/) Even if electricity demand increased by 10X with wider EV adoption, it would still mean just 5%.  No one has ever proposed that all human energy needs should be met with PV.

      The black spots on the map below represent how much land would need to be covered with PV to cover current electricity demand. (FWIW - I do not think this will ever happen for many reason's but not because it's not theoretically possible)
      ...
      It sounds as if you didn't notice notice that his number is much lower than yours. 10m²/km² is 10 ppm or 0.001%. covering 0.5% sounds like insanely high number. Global land area is 1.483e+14 m2

      Ah, yes. Sorry. I misunderstood his post and did not look at that number. I thought he was saying we would need 10x the available land covered with PV.  :palm:  I'll correct my post. Thanks for the correction.

      0.5% to meet total world electricity demand does not seem high to me. I trust Tom Murphy's numbers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 13, 2018, 04:13:31 pm
      (http://landartgenerator.org/blagi/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/AreaRequired1000.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 13, 2018, 04:35:55 pm
      A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

      1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

      Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

      2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

      I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

      It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 13, 2018, 05:00:46 pm
      Boiling water FTW  :-DD

      Got a better solution?  Any reason you are not sharing it with the world?

      Steam power has served us well since 1712.  What’s your solution?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 13, 2018, 05:57:28 pm
      No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
      If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 13, 2018, 06:02:57 pm
      No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
      If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
      You should know that that doesn't work. Our government has been increasing the fuel prices for decades but the number of cars has kept increasing just like the wages. People have to go to their work.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on July 13, 2018, 06:21:47 pm
      No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy.

      Right after the global communist take over, otherwise no one will take point.

      Releasing an engineered virus to make most of the global population infertile is more realistic.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on July 13, 2018, 06:24:40 pm
      2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.
      you forget that it assumes 1000 W/m² for only 2000h annually.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 13, 2018, 06:27:00 pm
      No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
      If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
      You should know that that doesn't work. Our government has been increasing the fuel prices for decades but the number of cars has kept increasing just like the wages. People have to go to their work.
      Not to that pricepoint, it worked pretty well with tobacco and that is an extemely addictive substance.
      I can bike to work, no excuse not to move or find a job closeby or work from home. If the oil is gone this has to happen anyway.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 13, 2018, 06:29:09 pm
      No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.

      Very true. But unfortunately our economy is predicated on endless growth. It is only through continual growth and inflation that debt can be paid.  When growth slows, politicians and bankers panic and do anything possible to prevent further slowdown or GASP! contraction/deflation- even if it means borrowing from the future.

      As soon as the next economic contraction/deflation gets going (and it will) the desperation will be palpable - because many in positions of power understand that it is the resource limits that we are approaching that is behind it and we have no long term solution for that.  More borrowing from the future is all that they can do and even that has it's limits. Eventually the piper must be paid.

      If you look behind the current headlines and don't let your self be distracted by the mainstream media's tactics, you'll find that it is looming resource shortages that are behind all of the Middle East turmoil, the China trade war, and especially the Russia hysteria.

      Unfortunately history shows that most Wars have been initiated and fought due to competition for limited resources.  Hopefully we can avoid that fate this time.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on July 13, 2018, 09:08:16 pm
      A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

      1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

      Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

      2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

      I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

      It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.

      That assumes you have energy storage.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 13, 2018, 09:11:12 pm
      A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

      1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

      Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

      2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

      I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

      It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
      That assumes you have energy storage.
      An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 13, 2018, 09:33:26 pm
      No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
      If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
      You should know that that doesn't work. Our government has been increasing the fuel prices for decades but the number of cars has kept increasing just like the wages. People have to go to their work.

      Not to that pricepoint, it worked pretty well with tobacco and that is an extemely addictive substance.
      I can bike to work, no excuse not to move or find a job closeby or work from home. If the oil is gone this has to happen anyway.

      You are assuming the cost of hosing to be uniform.  I live in the San Francisco Bay Area and few can afford to live here.  Similar story in London, Los Angeles and many other cities.  In American the rich are getting richer and the middle class is getting poorer.

      You really think raising price of gas is going to solve anything?  In the US we had gas rationing int he 1970s and just look what it did to the economy around the world.







      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 13, 2018, 09:45:50 pm
      Very true. But unfortunately our economy is predicated on endless growth. It is only through continual growth and inflation that debt can be paid. 
      I am currently reading the book "Sapiens" kind of interesting statements that only human beings are real, organisations, countries, the concepts of money and debt are all virtual creations that only exist because we believe in them and act to them.
      If tomorrow nobody would pay their bills anymore what would happen? Everyones house is sold? To whom?
      Your country has such an enormous debt that if the virtual institutions that hold those loans would collect it all tomorrow the usa would be bankrupt or would it?
      So no continual growth and profit are mind creations that as is proven over and over can not be sustained for longer periods of time, so why keep following this spiral?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 13, 2018, 09:55:00 pm
      so why keep following this spiral?

      Because those with the power benefit from it and have the power and resources to keep the masses unaware of their debt enslavement.

      "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free - Goethe
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 13, 2018, 10:06:01 pm
      A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

      1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

      Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

      2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

      I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

      It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
      That assumes you have energy storage.
      An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.

      An around the globe grid of solar pannels is silly.  Anyone who knows anything about electricty knows this is impractical for reasons of physics.

      Soviet Union were the masters of distributed nuclear.  To power remote light houses and airplane navigations aids they used distributed nuclear.  No one knows how many of these small nuclear power sources are still out there.  People are finding them not knowing of the radiation dangers and becoming ill.

           
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 13, 2018, 10:18:00 pm
      An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.
      An around the globe grid of solar pannels is silly.  Anyone who knows anything about electricty knows this is impractical for reasons of physics.
      I guess it is time for you to brush-up then. Large electricity grids spanning a significant portion of the globe already exist (the one in Russia for example):
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe)
      And there are plans for more:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SuperSmart_Grid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SuperSmart_Grid)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 13, 2018, 10:27:26 pm
      Very true. But unfortunately our economy is predicated on endless growth. It is only through continual growth and inflation that debt can be paid. 
      I am currently reading the book "Sapiens" kind of interesting statements that only human beings are real, organisations, countries, the concepts of money and debt are all virtual creations that only exist because we believe in them and act to them.
      If tomorrow nobody would pay their bills anymore what would happen? Everyones house is sold? To whom?
      Your country has such an enormous debt that if the virtual institutions that hold those loans would collect it all tomorrow the usa would be bankrupt or would it?
      So no continual growth and profit are mind creations that as is proven over and over can not be sustained for longer periods of time, so why keep following this spiral?

      What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   It is what ever you value it to be.  If you want to see currency becomes worthless just look at Zimbabwe dollars.  Zimbabwean dollars were not to long agon the most stable currency in the world.  Right now one trillions Zimbabwe dollars is worth about $3.75 USD.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 13, 2018, 10:43:55 pm
      An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.
      An around the globe grid of solar pannels is silly.  Anyone who knows anything about electricty knows this is impractical for reasons of physics.
      I guess it is time for you to brush-up then. Large electricity grids spanning a significant portion of the globe already exist (the one in Russia for example):
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe)
      And there are plans for more:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SuperSmart_Grid (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SuperSmart_Grid)

      Dude did you even read what’s it says in the links you posted?  “ could be in service as early as 2015”.

      it’s now 2018 how much of what you think will be the “perfect” solution has actually been built?


       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 14, 2018, 07:12:24 am
      What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   
      I don't hope so:
       for me personally money equals energy. Having money I can buy things so I don't have to make it my self or let other people do something so I don't have to do it my self.
      In return I perform work that cost me little energy since I am good at it, although it does cost me a lot of time.
      It would be stupid to have a virtual placeholder representing that energy that each and every hour costs a lot of energy while nothing happens. So this "money" would in my terms deflate itself.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 14, 2018, 07:53:49 am
      What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   
      I don't hope so:
       for me personally money equals energy. Having money I can buy things so I don't have to make it my self or let other people do something so I don't have to do it my self.
      In return I perform work that cost me little energy since I am good at it, although it does cost me a lot of time.
      I agree. Money represents an amount of work. It has evolved from bartering goods. It be interesting to read about the Roman currency and economic system.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 14, 2018, 08:29:59 am
      What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   
      I don't hope so:
       for me personally money equals energy. Having money I can buy things so I don't have to make it my self or let other people do something so I don't have to do it my self.
      In return I perform work that cost me little energy since I am good at it, although it does cost me a lot of time.

      I agree. Money represents an amount of work. It has evolved from bartering goods. It be interesting to read about the Roman currency and economic system.

      As George Washington was crossing the Delaware (famous picture) he wrote in is diary he was carrying something like 15 different kinds of currency.  He did not know who he would need to buy supplies from and wanted to be prepared with a currency they would consider had some value.

      Value of currency is an instersting one......  I think there is a South Pacific island where the people use large rocks as currency.  One or more of the large stones is in the sea and has been there for over 100 years.   Everyone values the rock, and this is there bases for currency.

      The one I like is diamonds.  Diamonds are plentiful and to the people of South Africa just a worthless stone.  Thanks to the company De Beers starting in 1888 they have managed to convince everyone around the world, especially women, they need one of these worthless rocks.  De Beers has done an excellent job controlling and manipulating the worlds supply of diamaonds.  Diamonds essentially a world currency with some similarity to Bitcoin.  And just like Bitcoin an individual or organization can control and manipulate thw value of it.

      By the way in case you don’’t know by now, Bitcoin is a complete scam as are related crypto-currencies.  Right now the Chinese have accumulated enough Bitcoins they have complete control over Bitcoin.  Similar to how De Beers has compete control over the world’s diamonds. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on July 14, 2018, 12:55:53 pm
      Just for your info, this a map of offshore windfarms from planning to currently exploited:

      https://www.4coffshore.com/offshorewind/ (https://www.4coffshore.com/offshorewind/)

      As I work in the sector, it seems i'll be busy for a few years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 14, 2018, 01:14:23 pm
      Mtdoc, "pile of trash" was in regards to the blog post, not the person. I simply cannot take a guy who has been out of practice for 20 years (and who uses Excel graphs) at face value.

      And no, I don't think the planet can support an infinite number of people. But I think the planet's carrying capacity, assuming we can make dense enough cities, is closer to 20 billion.

      World health physician Hans Rosling is staying population won’t peak over 11 billion.

      https://youtu.be/2LyzBoHo5EI
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 14, 2018, 02:11:39 pm
      Mtdoc, "pile of trash" was in regards to the blog post, not the person. I simply cannot take a guy who has been out of practice for 20 years (and who uses Excel graphs) at face value.

      And no, I don't think the planet can support an infinite number of people. But I think the planet's carrying capacity, assuming we can make dense enough cities, is closer to 20 billion.

      World heath physician Hans Rosling is staying population won’t peak over 11 billion.

      https://youtu.be/2LyzBoHo5EI
      Rosling was a great guy, but his figures are already looking dated. He talked about the social difficulties of driving Sweden's birth rate down from 2 to 1.5, but some developed countries have already fallen below 1.5 and continue to drop. It remains to be seen if that pattern replicates itself across the rest of the world, but it seems likely. As China relaxes its one child policy I know some people there who want a second child, but lots who are happy with just one or none. This suggests a future peak well below 11 billion, but with a truly awful mix of ages. The employment problems faced by today's youth seem likely to go away, even if further automation and AI are very successful.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on July 14, 2018, 07:59:35 pm
      Trends hold as long as trends hold.

      I have no blind faith in progress. I could easily see mass migration from Africa throwing Europe into an economic slide, while raising European birthrates and steering us into a Malthusian collapse.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 14, 2018, 08:50:09 pm
      World heath physician Hans Rosling is staying population won’t peak over 11 billion.

      He oversimplifies the factors involved in determining population growth but his 11 billion number is in general agreement with the Limits to Growth model predictions.

      The big question though is what happens then?  How far and how fast will it decline and by what means?. One thing is certain: It will not simply stay at 11 billion (or whatever the number turns out to be).

      The best we can hope for is that with the exhaustion of easy to extract fossil fuels and other resources, the ensuing economic decline will lead to a slow but steady population decline as has  been happening in Russia since the dissolution of the USSR  (https://www.thoughtco.com/population-decline-in-russia-1435266).

      There are signs that similar factors are already starting to appear here in the US where Life expectancy has fallen in each of the last 2 years. (https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/americas-heroin-epidemic/u-s-life-expectancy-falls-second-straight-year-drug-overdoses-n831676)

      This is what happens when complex societies begin to collapse. Historically this has always happened eventually - with exhaustion of important resources usually a major causative factor. 

      A good book on the subject is  Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477.The_Collapse_of_Complex_Societies)

      The difference now is that human society is now global. Regional collapses may predate the global wide collapse (and has already begun in some regions) but eventually, because of our interconnectedness, all societies will join in. My sense from the small contacts I have with some of the global elites, is that most of them recognize this but are doing everything possible to keep the house of cards up at all costs and keep the general populace from recognizing what's coming.

      People tend to get all emotional and suffer from severe cognitive dissonance when faced with this issue.  They accuse those who point out resources limits and the inevitable decline in human population of wanting it to happen.  No, it's just that some people are able to face and discuss the issue rationally while others prefer to do the equivalent of holding their hands over their ears and singing "La La La La". 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 14, 2018, 09:15:43 pm
      This is what happens when complex societies begin to collapse. Historically this has always happened eventually - with exhaustion of important resources usually a major causative factor. 

      A good book on the subject is  Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477.The_Collapse_of_Complex_Societies)
      That is an interesting subject but I don't think that history will repeat itself this time around. Book printing and more recently internet have created a critical mass in the availability of information and knowledge level of the people in general. Back in the old days people where kept dumb as a means of control.

      Also the way the modern world is financially intertwined also creates some stability. Resources may become a problem but nowadays it is much easier for people to move to where the resources are.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 14, 2018, 09:19:41 pm
      But the internet can be easily turned off by the masters of the universe... imagine that!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 14, 2018, 09:37:27 pm
      But the internet can be easily turned off by the masters of the universe... imagine that!
      Remember internet was designed for military use with redundancy and decentralised control in mind. I think I still have a modem somewhere...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 14, 2018, 09:42:43 pm
      Trends hold as long as trends hold.

      I have no blind faith in progress. I could easily see mass migration from Africa throwing Europe into an economic slide, while raising European birthrates and steering us into a Malthusian collapse.

      Rosling has already shown Malthusian is wrong.  It’s education of women, family planning and improved Heath care which results in lower birth rates, and increased average life expectancy.  This has been show over and over to be true over the past 100 or more years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 14, 2018, 09:42:57 pm
      But the internet can be easily turned off by the masters of the universe... imagine that!
      Remember internet was designed for military use with redundancy and decentralised control in mind. I think I still have a modem somewhere...
      But the powers that rule can shut it down at their whim in a sec. Good luck with your modem  :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 14, 2018, 09:44:07 pm
      This is what happens when complex societies begin to collapse. Historically this has always happened eventually - with exhaustion of important resources usually a major causative factor. 

      A good book on the subject is  Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477.The_Collapse_of_Complex_Societies)
      That is an interesting subject but I don't think that history will repeat itself this time around.

      So "this time it's different" huh?.

      Quote
      Book printing and more recently internet have created a critical mass in the availability of information and knowledge level of the people in general. Back in the old days people where kept dumb as a means of control.

      Yes, I agree somewhat but that does not solve the problem of resource scarcity.

      And while the internet is helpful to keep people informed, on the otherhand it, along with the mass media makes it easier in many ways to keep people in the dark by distracting them with easily digestable and addictive memes. The majority of people, *think* they understand what's going on but they really are kept blind to the underlying forces at work.  Propaganda is now more sophisticated and easier to distribute.  Goebbels could only dream of having the reach of today's mass media.

      Quote
      Resources may become a problem but nowadays it is much easier for people to move to where the resources are.
      That was true in the past: Collapse of civilizations remained somewhat localized (eg Mayan, Anastazi, etc).  People then moved on to where resources were more readily available. As civilization and technology advanced, larger, more far reaching and widespread civilzations became possible (eg Roman, etc) - but even after their collapse there were always other, relatively untouched lands with abundant resources.

      But that is no longer true. There are now new lands to exploit. Resources to feed the global machine are extracted worldwide. Fossil fuels are the prime - keystone - resource that has allowed population to grow this far. There is no place for people to move where those will be more abundant. (And no, traveling to Mars will not help in that regard).  Other resources, water, topsoil, etc, are also a factor.

      In addition, Tainter's distinguishing point is that as societies become increasingly complex, more and more resources are required just to maintain their complexity.  That and increasing specialization among societies inhabitants make them less resilient.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 14, 2018, 10:26:39 pm
      This is what happens when complex societies begin to collapse. Historically this has always happened eventually - with exhaustion of important resources usually a major causative factor. 

      A good book on the subject is  Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies (https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477.The_Collapse_of_Complex_Societies)
      That is an interesting subject but I don't think that history will repeat itself this time around.

      So "this time it's different" huh?.

      Quote
      Book printing and more recently internet have created a critical mass in the availability of information and knowledge level of the people in general. Back in the old days people where kept dumb as a means of control.

      Yes, I agree somewhat but that does not solve the problem of resource scarcity.

      And while the internet is helpful to keep people informed, on the otherhand it, along with the mass media makes it easier in many ways to keep people in the dark by distracting them with easily digestable and addictive memes. The majority of people, *think* they understand what's going on but they really are kept blind to the underlying forces at work.  Propaganda is now more sophisticated and easier to distribute.  Goebbels could only dream of having the reach of today's mass media.

      Quote
      Resources may become a problem but nowadays it is much easier for people to move to where the resources are.
      That was true in the past: Collapse of civilizations remained somewhat localized (eg Mayan, Anastazi, etc).  People then moved on to where resources were more readily available. As civilization and technology advanced, larger, more far reaching and widespread civilzations became possible (eg Roman, etc) - but even after their collapse there were always other, relatively untouched lands with abundant resources.

      But that is no longer true. There are now new lands to exploit. Resources to feed the global machine are extracted worldwide. Fossil fuels are the prime - keystone - resource that has allowed population to grow this far. There is no place for people to move where those will be more abundant. (And no, traveling to Mars will not help in that regard).  Other resources, water, topsoil, etc, are also a factor.

      In addition, Tainter's distinguishing point is that as societies become increasingly complex, more and more resources are required just to maintain their complexity.  That and increasing specialization among societies inhabitants make them less resilient.

      What do you mean there re no more resources to exploit?  Emigrants are resource which have been, and continue to be exploited. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 14, 2018, 10:32:20 pm
      What do you mean there re no more resources to exploit?  Emigrants are resource which have been, and continue to be exploited.

      You know darn well that we’ve been talking about physical resources, particularly fossil fuels.

      Don’t be a troll.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on July 14, 2018, 10:39:29 pm
      Rosling has already shown Malthusian is wrong.
      Temporarily.
      Quote
      It’s education of women, family planning and improved Heath care which results in lower birth rates, and increased average life expectancy.  This has been show over and over to be true over the past 100 or more years.
      This is what I mean with blind faith in progress. Even when the correlation holds the education of women, family planning and Heath care can of course still regress. Especially in western nations, which are at a very high level.

      PS. non western migrants are hardly a resource for European welfare societies (more so for ME defacto slave holder nations). They could be, if we abandoned welfare.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 14, 2018, 10:45:10 pm
      Resources to feed the global machine are extracted worldwide. Fossil fuels are the prime - keystone - resource that has allowed population to grow this far. There is no place for people to move where those will be more abundant. (And no, traveling to Mars will not help in that regard).  Other resources, water, topsoil, etc, are also a factor.
      In my opinion the most important resource by far is energy. Almost everything is derived from energy one way or another. If push comes to shove then there is always nuclear as a relatively quick way out. All in all I'm not that worried about the future of mankind or any limits on the amount of people. IMHO the most important thing is working together on a global scale.
      Quote
      In addition, Tainter's distinguishing point is that as societies become increasingly complex, more and more resources are required just to maintain their complexity.  That and increasing specialization among societies inhabitants make them less resilient.
      I'm not too worried about that. What you see is that (from West to East) North America, Europe, Russia and China have enough people with brains to keep technology going on their own. A mass extinction event which wipes out any of these big 'clusters' won't affect the ability to keep up and develop new technology. That is a big difference compared to earlier advanced societies.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on July 14, 2018, 10:51:05 pm
      In my opinion the most important resource by far is energy.
      Maybe if we get molecular manipulators which can recycle materials indefinitely with enough energy, but as it stands huge amounts of materials become unrecoverable in our waste stream. Peak everything will hit us hard.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 14, 2018, 10:54:59 pm
      It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
      You mean all of society's energy needs, right?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 14, 2018, 11:08:55 pm
      It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
      You mean all of society's energy needs, right?

      I meant electricity, but either is true. It would obviously be a bigger percentage if you were trying to meet all energy demands with PV. That would be silly though since wind, hydro, passive solar and biomass (primarily wood) will always have a significant role.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 14, 2018, 11:10:27 pm
      All in all I'm not that worried about the future of mankind or any limits on the amount of people.
      I'm glad I sure won't be here by then, but if the earth ever becomes one big continuous city it will be a shit to live in. And the way things go, all points in that direction.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 14, 2018, 11:18:49 pm
      It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
      You mean all of society's energy needs, right?

      I meant electricity, but either is true. It would obviously be a bigger percentage if you were trying to meet all energy demands with PV. That would be silly though since wind, hydro, passive solar and biomass (primarily wood) will always have a significant role.

      That pretty much sums it up, yes. Also, given a source of plenty renewable energy, we could synthesize fuel to keep the planes flying if needed, for example, why not?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 14, 2018, 11:31:49 pm
      Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle
      I'm glad I sure won't be here by then, but if the earth ever becomes one big continuous city it will be a shit to live in. And the way things go, all points in that direction.
      You don't know that. Modern city planners and future planners have real innovative ideas.
      No cars, trucks etc in the city. Electric rolling paths for persons, an Underground transportation net for goods. Skyscrapers where the outsides are covered by plants for shade and moisture balance, etc etc.
      Perhaps it will become a real pleasure to live in a future modern city, it is as unpredictable as saying in the 19th century that humans will fly in the sky.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on July 15, 2018, 12:48:57 pm
      Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle
      I'm glad I sure won't be here by then, but if the earth ever becomes one big continuous city it will be a shit to live in. And the way things go, all points in that direction.
      You don't know that. Modern city planners and future planners have real innovative ideas.
      No cars, trucks etc in the city. Electric rolling paths for persons, an Underground transportation net for goods. Skyscrapers where the outsides are covered by plants for shade and moisture balance, etc etc.
      Perhaps it will become a real pleasure to live in a future modern city, it is as unpredictable as saying in the 19th century that humans will fly in the sky.

      Well, actually, in the 19th century, lighter than air craft already were flying, & there was a lot of work going on around the world, aimed at powered, heavier than air flight.

      Otto Lilienthal had made quite a number of flights with his glider, & Lawrence Hargraves in Australia had made rubber band powered  models which flew .

      Ultimately, though, humans still don't fly----we ride in machines that do so.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 15, 2018, 01:16:48 pm
      Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle
      I'm glad I sure won't be here by then, but if the earth ever becomes one big continuous city it will be a shit to live in. And the way things go, all points in that direction.
      You don't know that. Modern city planners and future planners have real innovative ideas.
      No cars, trucks etc in the city. Electric rolling paths for persons, an Underground transportation net for goods. Skyscrapers where the outsides are covered by plants for shade and moisture balance, etc etc.
      Perhaps it will become a real pleasure to live in a future modern city, it is as unpredictable as saying in the 19th century that humans will fly in the sky.
      I like the good old definition;

      City planner: Someone who designs towns, or parts of towns, in order to get enough money not to have to live in one.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 15, 2018, 08:17:03 pm
      Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?   I thought England was big on solar like Germany.  As I travel around in the city and country side I only see  rooftop solar installed on maybe 1 out of 100,000 homes or even less.  And so far I have not seen any solar powered signs.

      I thought folks posted here saying England was big on solar.  Intertingly i’ve Seen several electric charging stations for cars on public streets.   Seems to me England could really benefit from electric cars.

      A bit surprised they don’t have many more.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 15, 2018, 09:10:31 pm
      Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?
      Have you been long enough to see the weather  :-DD
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 15, 2018, 09:28:17 pm
      Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?   I thought England was big on solar like Germany.  As I travel around in the city and country side I only see  rooftop solar installed on maybe 1 out of 100,000 homes or even less.  And so far I have not seen any solar powered signs.

      I thought folks posted here saying England was big on solar.  Intertingly i’ve Seen several electric charging stations for cars on public streets.   Seems to me England could really benefit from electric cars.

      A bit surprised they don’t have many more.
      The Brittish are clever and go for nuclear: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 15, 2018, 09:42:48 pm
      Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?
      Have you been long enough to see the weather  :-DD

      Yes.  Are you saying there is nowhere in England is there enough sun for solar panels to be effective yet in  Germany where it snows panels are effective?   That don’t make no sense.

      Got a better more educated answer?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 15, 2018, 10:02:07 pm
      What do you think yourself? Solar panels by themselves are not financially viable so it all depends on government grants. On top of that the UK has strict planning rules concerning the exterior of homes which may not allow adding solar panels.

      True story: the king of the Netherlands is not allowed to put solar panels on his palace because of similar rules. Go figure.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 15, 2018, 10:20:20 pm
      Solar panels by themselves are not financially viable so it all depends on government grants

      Nonsense.  PV is so cheap now, in many locations it provides electricity at a less expensive rate than any other available power.  Panels are on the order of $0.50 per watt and total installation costs should be no more than a few dollars/watt - though that doesn't keep many commercial home installers from ripping customers off with higher pricing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 16, 2018, 07:16:33 am
      Well if your roof is at the south you have no trees, 60% good weather and clean the panels each month you can get a real good return on investment over 15 years.
      Most roofs are not to the south, there are lots of trees, there are lots of clouds, rain even in summer. Two years ago we had a hail storm causing 500M€ damage to roofs, glass, solar panels and cars. Lot of people were not insured, they had a storm clause but that excludes hail.

      The sun shines in daytime while everyone is out working so the energy needs storage which is still very expensive.
      So you need a converter per panel (lifetime 10 years) so if some shades comes on one panel not the entire array suffers, you need batterystorage (lifetime <10 years) or payback from the energy company for return of energy which in our country is being nihilated over the coming years.  Yes that is right, you get €0 for the energy you give back because it is to popular and the energy companies can not handle the overload of generated energy, so they actually see it as a burden and want you to buy and expensive battery where they want to be able to drain energy from if needed, but you have to pay for it.

      So hmmmmmm it is not that interesting IMO.
      What is interesting though but restricted and also expensive is to warm water in the summer pump it 200m down in the ground and pump it up in the winter.
      However you can not reserve your own tank at 200m down so how that works ???????

      So since my roof is to the west , I have trees and live in one of the cloudiest countries I will never go into solar my self.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 16, 2018, 07:57:06 am
      Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?
      Have you been long enough to see the weather  :-DD

      Yes.  Are you saying there is nowhere in England is there enough sun for solar panels to be effective yet in  Germany where it snows panels are effective?   That don’t make no sense.

      Got a better more educated answer?

      Are you sure?  I’ve seen dome homes with solar, jut not many.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 16, 2018, 08:03:14 am
      Solar panels by themselves are not financially viable so it all depends on government grants
      Nonsense.  PV is so cheap now, in many locations it provides electricity at a less expensive rate than any other available power.  Panels are on the order of $0.50 per watt and total installation costs should be no more than a few dollars/watt - though that doesn't keep many commercial home installers from ripping customers off with higher pricing.
      We are talking about the UK. Even in the NL which is slightly to the south of the UK solar panels are not a good investment without subsidies.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 16, 2018, 08:37:12 am
      Exactly in fact it is very simple it will only be interesting if you are fully self sustaining, eg cut off from the net.
      That would economically be interesting since in my country 80% of the bill is the net connection and the taxes.
      This would mean that the house in my case would need about 50kWh or LiIon batteries that due to its cost should last 30 years or should be 3 times  cheaper then they are now (rough estimates). Still in the late fall till late spring I still would need an alternative energy source, about 100000 hamsters running in a wheel that drives a dynamo would suffice.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: richard.cs on July 16, 2018, 08:48:30 am
      Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?   I thought England was big on solar like Germany.  As I travel around in the city and country side I only see  rooftop solar installed on maybe 1 out of 100,000 homes or even less.  And so far I have not seen any solar powered signs.

      I certainly don't think it's as rare as 1 in 100,000, certainly not in the south anyway. For quite a few years the subsidies were overly generous and they were going up everywhere, even on north-facing roofs and other places that didn't make a lot of sense. Around Southampton I would put the numbers at more like 1 in 100.

      This article: https://www.solar-trade.org.uk/uk-reaches-1-million-solar-homes-milestone/ (https://www.solar-trade.org.uk/uk-reaches-1-million-solar-homes-milestone/) suggests 800,000 PV + 250,000 solar-thermal across the UK but I am not sure of the date, this government publication https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/solar-photovoltaics-deployment (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/solar-photovoltaics-deployment) says 872,520 sub-4 kW installs as of last month, and another 25,050 4-10 kW, the vast majority of these will be domestic rooftop solar.

      I see a few solar roadsigns around here. They're basically only installed where it would be expensive to get a cable to, existing signs with mains powered lights are not upgraded to solar ones but new signs in more remote locations are often solar.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on July 16, 2018, 03:14:49 pm
      The Brittish are clever and go for nuclear
      Nope.
      They progressively and consistently are replacing fossil by renewables. Renewables overtook Nukes since 2014:
      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/87/UK_electricity_production_by_source_1980-2015.png/1024px-UK_electricity_production_by_source_1980-2015.png)
      And that's not even counting hydro.
      Nuke electricity has peaked and will only go down.
      Fossil electricity has peaked and will only go down.
      At least for UK.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 16, 2018, 03:40:29 pm
      If you had read the article I linked to you would have read that the UK has commissioned 6 new nuclear power plants. The first one is to go live around 2024. Sure nuclear went down a little bit. Probably due to phasing out old nuclear power plants.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 16, 2018, 06:10:55 pm
      I don’t know about the UK alone, but for Europe as a whole, and the US, total nuclear power generation is set to  continue to decline over the next few decades. This is based on current aging reactors scheduled retiring versus new reactors currently being built or in the planning stages.

      Worldwide, some developing countries have plans to increase their nuclear generating capability, yet overall, even with that increase, the percentage of their of electricity generated by nuclear will decline. China is the prime example of this. See pages 100-101 of  this report for details (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018.pdf).

      The problem with nuclear is not just the safety and long term storage of waste. The problem is the enormous cost of building the power plants (requiring huge public subsidies) and even more problematic long term, the enormous fossil fuel inputs required to build a nuclear power plant.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 16, 2018, 07:00:38 pm
      Why do you keep harping on about fossil fuel input while the world is transitioning to renewables and nuclear? Solar panels also require massive fossil fuel inputs but nobody seems to care because at some point the factories which make solar panels won't need fossil fuel. That is what we call a 'transition period'.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 16, 2018, 07:28:19 pm
      Why do you keep harping on about fossil fuel input while the world is transitioning to renewables and nuclear?
      because we will not be able to build any more nuclear plants in 40 years.  And no, the world is not transitioning to nuclear - nuclear peaked in 2007 and is declining. That is just a fact.

      Quote
      Solar panels also require massive fossil fuel inputs but nobody seems to care
      I care and that’s one reason PV will never fully replace FFs. The difference is that the FF inputs to PV production are much smaller and potentially replacable (but we’ve waited too long). And PV is on a rapid growth curve. Nuclear is on the decline - and for good reasons.

      You continue to twist and turn trying to find a way out of the energy trap we’re in. There isn’t . It’s ok, I  know what that’s like, I used to be there too.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 16, 2018, 07:52:07 pm
      because we will not be able to build any more nuclear plants in 40 years.  And no, the world is not transitioning to nuclear - nuclear peaked in 2007 and is declining. That is just a fact.

      You continue to twist and turn trying to find a way out of the energy trap we’re in. There isn’t . It’s ok, I  know what that’s like, I used to be there too.
      Perhaps you should visit some of the old Roman buildings in Italy and the pyramids in Egypt. Perhaps that will change your lack of confidence in human ingenuity. Even without fossil fuel people have managed to build huge structures.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 16, 2018, 09:14:34 pm
      You’re right. Slave labor may make a comeback!  :o
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 16, 2018, 09:32:30 pm
      Why do you keep harping on about fossil fuel input while the world is transitioning to renewables and nuclear?

      because we will not be able to build any more nuclear plants in 40 years.  And no, the world is not transitioning to nuclear - nuclear peaked in 2007 and is declining. That is just a fact.

      Do you have some reliable sources for those "facts" because last year the iaea published estimations to the contrary, they are from double the capacity to equal the current capacity in 2050. Wild figures that depend if the retiring plants will be renewed or not. That depends except for $ also on, if there are other alternatives available.

      https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-releases-projections-on-global-nuclear-power-capacity-through-2050 (https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-releases-projections-on-global-nuclear-power-capacity-through-2050)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 16, 2018, 09:33:14 pm
      You’re right. Slave labor may make a comeback!  :o
      One problem: the pyramids wheren't built by slaves.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 16, 2018, 09:58:42 pm
      Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?
      Have you been long enough to see the weather  :-DD

      I hate to make someone look stupid.  But isn’t the weather less favorable for rooftop solar in Scotland due to the weather?  In traveling trough Scotland I have seen more rooftop solar than in England.  And doesn’t Scottland have far more rain and fog than England?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 16, 2018, 10:00:35 pm
      Sure do you know what an  :-DD means ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 16, 2018, 10:09:59 pm
      [
      Do you have some reliable sources for those "facts" because last year the iaea published estimations to the contrary, they are from double the capacity to equal the current capacity in 2050.

      Yes, the source (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018.pdf) is in my post. Did you miss that? The full Statistical Review of World Energy (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf) is a highly respected and anticipated annual report that is used by energy analysts worldwide, including he nuclear industry.

      As I posted, it's regional. Nuclear generating capability in the US an Europe is declining and will continue to decline. It is increasing in absolute terms in some developing countries (most notably China) but that increase is much smaller than the current and projected increase in PV.  The net result is that while there is some possible projected overall worldwide growth in nuclear power generating capability,  all projections show that its overall percent contribution to world energy supplies will continue to markedly decrease, as it has been doing since 2006.

      If you look closely at the IAEA report you sited it essentially says the same thing. And note the IAEAs  mission is to promote use of atomic energy!  Also of note they give TWO possible scenarios. You only sited the high scenario. Their low scenario shows even the absolute amount of nuclear generating capability decreasing over the next 30 years.   And that is from the foremost lobbying group for nuclear energy!

      (https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/nuclear-electric-production-by-region-to-2017.png)
      Nuclear electric power production by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. FSU is “Former Soviet Union” countries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 16, 2018, 11:06:24 pm
      Why do so few homes in England have rooftop solar?   I thought England was big on solar like Germany.  As I travel around in the city and country side I only see  rooftop solar installed on maybe 1 out of 100,000 homes or even less.  And so far I have not seen any solar powered signs.
      So you inspected the roofs of at least 100k UK homes, and only found zero or one with solar panels? Must have been quite a search.

      Roof solar panels are pretty common in the UK, although their density is very erratic. It seems when one house in a street gets them, many other houses in the same street soon follow suit. This means you may not find a panel for a few streets, and then suddenly find a long row of terraced houses with almost continuous solar panels down the entire block.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 16, 2018, 11:55:45 pm
      [
      Do you have some reliable sources for those "facts" because last year the iaea published estimations to the contrary, they are from double the capacity to equal the current capacity in 2050.

      Yes, the source (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018.pdf) is in my post. Did you miss that? The full Statistical Review of World Energy (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf) is a highly respected and anticipated annual report that is used by energy analysts worldwide, including he nuclear industry.

      As I posted, it's regional. Nuclear generating capability in the US an Europe is declining and will continue to decline. It is increasing in absolute terms in some developing countries (most notably China) but that increase is much smaller than the current and projected increase in PV.  The net result is that while there is some possible projected overall worldwide growth in nuclear power generating capability,  all projections show that its overall percent contribution to world energy supplies will continue to markedly decrease, as it has been doing since 2006.

      If you look closely at the IAEA report you sited it essentially says the same thing. And note the IAEAs  mission is to promote use of atomic energy!  Also of note they give TWO possible scenarios. You only sited the high scenario. Their low scenario shows even the absolute amount of nuclear generating capability decreasing over the next 30 years.   And that is from the foremost lobbying group for nuclear energy!

      (https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/nuclear-electric-production-by-region-to-2017.png)
      Nuclear electric power production by part of the world, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. FSU is “Former Soviet Union” countries.

      China ihas an agreement with TerraPower to have have a Next Itteration nuclear plant online in the next year or two.  Any idea s to the status?

      France is building ITER.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 17, 2018, 12:18:25 am
      Page 47 of the most recent annual Statistical Review of World Energy  (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf) has a nice graph showing the percentage of electricity generation by fuel type from 1985 through the end of 2017.  As you can see, coal remains dominant.

      Also note: Nuclear continues to decline while "Other Renewables" (primarily wind and solar -excludes hydro) continues to rise dramatically and is set to surpass nuclear this year.  You can see the breakdown by country for the past 2 years on page 48. Note UK and other parts of Europe are following the same trend - less nuclear while RE growths dramatically.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=477920;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 17, 2018, 07:59:07 am
      All the information you are linking to is about the past. Kjelt posted a forecast for the future. You can't ignore the fact that a lot of new nuclear power plants are being built. It is not like nuclear power is going to be abandoned (far from it).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 17, 2018, 08:57:15 am
      Yes, the source (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018.pdf) is in my post. Did you miss that?
      Yes I missed some pages.

      Quote
      As I posted, it's regional. Nuclear generating capability in the US an Europe is declining and will continue to decline.
      On the short term coming 10 years yes, longer term it is unknown.

      Quote
      If you look closely at the IAEA report you sited it essentially says the same thing. And note the IAEAs  mission is to promote use of atomic energy!  Also of note they give TWO possible scenarios. You only sited the high scenario. Their low scenario shows even the absolute amount of nuclear generating capability decreasing over the next 30 years.   And that is from the foremost lobbying group for nuclear energy!
      Perhaps you should reread that article because I have quoted the high AND low scenario:

      Quote from: iaea
      The high projections indicate an increase from 2016 levels by 42% in 2030, by 83% in 2040 and by 123% in 2050.
      The low projections, on the other hand, indicate a decline in capacity by 12% in 2030 and 15% in 2040, before rebounding to present levels by 2050.
      So they say by 2050 there will be equal or more nuclear energy used in the world.
      As already stated this depends on so many parameters that it is hard to predict accurately.
      The biggest unknown is will there be a viable alternative that can be used in the coming decades, if not I personally think nuclear power will boost because there are little alternatives that can generate the same amount of clean power.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 17, 2018, 11:00:44 am
      When I was young I read in a popular science, or perhaps in an american scientific, I'm not sure, an article about how nuclear power would bring electricity costs close to near nothing. No wonder the powers that rule didn't like that even the slightest and soon after a (very successful) FUD campaign against it began: there's no shortage of useful idiots (*).

      (*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 17, 2018, 01:04:53 pm
      When I was young I read in a popular science, or perhaps in an american scientific, I'm not sure, an article about how nuclear power would bring electricity costs close to near nothing. No wonder the powers that rule didn't like that even the slightest and soon after a (very successful) FUD campaign against it began: there's no shortage of useful idiots (*).

      (*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot
      That idea of nuclear based electricity being super cheap was spread by idiots. With zero generation costs, the cost just to build and support the grid alone would keep electricity costs reasonably high.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 17, 2018, 03:16:30 pm
      Why do you keep harping on about fossil fuel input while the world is transitioning to renewables and nuclear?
      because we will not be able to build any more nuclear plants in 40 years.  And no, the world is not transitioning to nuclear - nuclear peaked in 2007 and is declining. That is just a fact.

      Quote
      Solar panels also require massive fossil fuel inputs but nobody seems to care
      I care and that’s one reason PV will never fully replace FFs. The difference is that the FF inputs to PV production are much smaller and potentially replacable (but we’ve waited too long). And PV is on a rapid growth curve. Nuclear is on the decline - and for good reasons.

      You continue to twist and turn trying to find a way out of the energy trap we’re in. There isn’t . It’s ok, I  know what that’s like, I used to be there too.

      Nuclear on the decline?  Don’t think so.  There are currently 75 companies working on NextGen Nuclear.  This includes companies beinging funding by 2 billionaires as well as many nations. 

      China is is working with billionaire Bill Gates on building next itteration nuclear power plants in China.  And France is building a NextGen nuclear plant in France. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 17, 2018, 05:17:31 pm
      All the information you are linking to is about the past.
      :palm:  Like most of what you've posted in this thread. That is demonstrably false.

      I've posted THIS LINK (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2018.pdf) several times now, which is an outlook on the future of various energy sources including nuclear. It is entirely about the future -with OVER 100 PAGES OF FORECASTS about the future of various energy sources. As I've already posted - pages 100 and 101 specifically focus on nuclear. Below, in bold are the main points from the summary on page 101. My comments below each point are in italics

      "•Nuclear and hydro power output continue to grow over the Outlook, although less rapidly than overall power generation, such that their shares within power decline."

      This is what I've repeatedly stated - over the next few decades the forecasts all show that even if total nuclear generating capacity increases,  nuclear power as a percentage of total power production will continue to decline .

      "• In the ET scenario, growth in nuclear energy (1.8% p.a., 59 TWhp.a.) is driven by China (51 TWhp.a.), which accounts for almost 90% of the total growth in nuclear energy. The share of nuclear energy within China’s energy demand increases from 2% today to 8% by 2040."

      Note that even with such large projected growth in China - even there, while total share of it's energy demand increased - it increases at a much slower rate than the share of Renewables (see page 94 of the report).

      "•The overall growth in nuclear energy is dampened by declines in both the EU (11 TWhp.a.) and US (10 TWhp.a.) as aging nuclear plants are retired and not
      replaced"


      The forecasts consistently show that despite some building of new plants their will continue to be a net loss of nuclear energy production in the EU and US.

      Quote
      You can't ignore the fact that a lot of new nuclear power plants are being built.
      :palm:  again!  I've not ignored that at all. See above and my prior posts.

      Quote
      It is not like nuclear power is going to be abandoned (far from it).
      In the near term - no, of course not - and I've never claimed that. Eventually, yes I believe it will be, unless as you propose,  the massive amount of concrete and steel needed to build a safe plant is accomplished Roman or Egyptian style - using thousands of humans working by hand to mine and move materials. Of course it took them hundreds of years to accomplish their large scale building projects using these methods - so ....

      So the bottom line is that your dreams of a nuclear energy future are not reflected in the facts of what has happened over the past 12 years or the forecasts for the future - and yes that includes the forecast from the IEAE (a nuclear lobbying group) posted by kjelt.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 17, 2018, 05:44:20 pm

      Quote
      If you look closely at the IAEA report you sited it essentially says the same thing. And note the IAEAs  mission is to promote use of atomic energy!  Also of note they give TWO possible scenarios. You only sited the high scenario. Their low scenario shows even the absolute amount of nuclear generating capability decreasing over the next 30 years.   And that is from the foremost lobbying group for nuclear energy!
      Perhaps you should reread that article because I have quoted the high AND low scenario:

      Quote from: iaea
      The high projections indicate an increase from 2016 levels by 42% in 2030, by 83% in 2040 and by 123% in 2050.
      The low projections, on the other hand, indicate a decline in capacity by 12% in 2030 and 15% in 2040, before rebounding to present levels by 2050.

      No, not exactly. In their low scenarios it rebounds almost,  but not completely back to present levels (despite the spin they put on it). 

      Quote
      So they say by 2050 there will be equal or more nuclear energy used in the world.

      Yes but even in their high scenario - the percentage of nuclear power contribution to overall energy mix will have declined.

      If you haven't done so already, I'd recommend reading  the actual report (https://www.iaea.org/About/Policy/GC/GC61/GC61InfDocuments/English/gc61inf-8_en.pdf) not just the press release you linked.  If you do you'll note that one of  their primary sources of data is from the annual Statistical Review of World Energy which I've been citing - but they have not incorporated its most recent data.

      Also - as I said - keep in mind that the IAEA is a nuclear power industry lobbying group so they are going to put a particular spin on the data and their forecasts.

      Looking at the assumptions of their Low and High scenarios (page 9 of their full report) - you tell me which one seems more plausible:
      Quote
      The  low  projection  assumes  that  current trends will continue with few changes in policies affecting nuclear power. It does not assume that all national targets for nuclear power will be achieved. It is a ‘conservative but plausible’ projection.

      The  high  case  assumes  that  current  rates  of  economic  and  electricity demand growth will continue, with particularly high growth in the Far East. Nuclear power would also be accepted in many countries as a cost-effective climate change mitigation option.

      Uninterupted growth for the next 32 years?  That has never happened.  Even China's growth has slowed dramatically since this was published - so the high case has already proved to be wrong. A least they don't claim the high case is plausible ::)

      Quote
      As already stated this depends on so many parameters that it is hard to predict accurately.

      Yes, it's hard to make predictions. Especially about the future. ;D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 17, 2018, 06:25:50 pm
      In the near term - no, of course not - and I've never claimed that. Eventually, yes I believe it will be, unless as you propose,  the massive amount of concrete and steel needed to build a safe plant is accomplished Roman or Egyptian style - using thousands of humans working by hand to mine and move materials. Of course it took them hundreds of years to accomplish their large scale building projects using these methods - so ....
      The pyramid of Cheops took 20 years to built. Not hundreds of years. The Collosseum in Rome took 8 years to built before opening and another 16 years to complete. I haven't been to the pyramid of Cheops but I did visit the Collosseum and it is freakishly huge even though half of the outer ring has dissapeared in the past few millennia.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 17, 2018, 07:12:50 pm
      In the near term - no, of course not - and I've never claimed that. Eventually, yes I believe it will be, unless as you propose,  the massive amount of concrete and steel needed to build a safe plant is accomplished Roman or Egyptian style - using thousands of humans working by hand to mine and move materials. Of course it took them hundreds of years to accomplish their large scale building projects using these methods - so ....
      The pyramid of Cheops took 20 years to built. Not hundreds of years. The Collosseum in Rome took 8 years to built before opening and another 16 years to complete. I haven't been to the pyramid of Cheops but I did visit the Collosseum and it is freakishly huge even though half of the outer ring has dissapeared in the past few millennia.

      I wasn't referring to those specific structures in isolation- either of which is no where near as complex as a nuclear power plant.  In any case, I was at the Colosseum in October 2016.  Yes in it's original form you are correct. Its present form took longer.

      Both structures required the hard manual labor of tens of thousands of men.  Sure one theory says that in the case of the pyramids - they may not have technically been "slaves" - yet surely you don't believe the workers were working in conditions anything like even the most taxing manual labor jobs today.

      Are you seriously suggesting that large, safe nuclear power plants could be built on a large scale in the future solely using human and animal powered labor?
      The volume of concrete and steel alone (http://fhr.nuc.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/05-001-A_Material_input.pdf) in a nuclear power plant greatly exceeds the total volume of simple limestone blocks in the pyramid at Cheops.  Never mind the energy required to produce steel, concrete, piping, etc, etc.

      As a reference point - one gallon of oil has the energy equivalent of approximately 23,000 hours of human work equivalent. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 17, 2018, 07:34:20 pm
      One variable the report can not address are technological discoveries and failures.  If more resources and funds were put to the task it is thought we could have NextGen nuclear very soon.  This is something the report does not and can not address.  So far every experiment that has been done with NextGen nuclear has been promising.   And not only is there not one way to do it, there are several. 

      Everyone who has seriously looked at all the electricity producing option we have realizes NextGen nuclear is the best solution we have at this time.  And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 17, 2018, 08:33:07 pm
      Can I suggest that if you want to argue Nuclear/Non-Nuclear and other energy (not car related) that you start a new thread in the "Renewable Energy" forum.

      Please can we return this to the discussion of electric vehicles.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 17, 2018, 08:54:16 pm
      And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away.
      You keep making references to reactors which don't leave long lasting troublesome isotopes behind. What exactly are you referring to?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SeanB on July 17, 2018, 09:33:15 pm
      Look at Fullychargedshow on Youtube, where Robert Llewellyn has his series on electric cars, electric houses and such. While he may be an actor, he does have a reasonable idea about things, and more importantly, data to back a lot of it up.  He does have solar power in his UK house as well, and has the power figures up as well.  As well you do get the odd reference to Red Dwarf as well, though he does not wear the costume on the channel much, but you do meet the cast, plus he has done some really good carpool episodes.

      Yes I bought the series.........
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 17, 2018, 09:37:02 pm
      Please can we return this to the discussion of electric vehicles
      Sure what do you want to contribute?
      On another forum where electric cars have been discussed over 300 pages the consensus is that current generation electric cars are interesting for home-work home-city shopping travel for those lucky enough to have their own driveway with charging pole and completely useless for everything and everybody else  ;D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 17, 2018, 09:38:12 pm
      Look at Fullychargedshow on Youtube, where Robert Llewellyn has his series on electric cars, electric houses and such. While he may be an actor, he does have a reasonable idea about things, and more importantly, data to back a lot of it up.  He does have solar power in his UK house as well, and has the power figures up as well.  As well you do get the odd reference to Red Dwarf as well, though he does not wear the costume on the channel much, but you do meet the cast, plus he has done some really good carpool episodes.

      Yes I bought the series.........

      Yes, I'm also a big fan of Jonny Smith too. He's always been a good auto journalist.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 17, 2018, 09:42:11 pm
      Please can we return this to the discussion of electric vehicles
      Sure what do you want to contribute?
      On another forum where electric cars have been discussed over 300 pages the consensus is that current generation electric cars are interesting for home-work home-city shopping travel for those lucky enough to have their own driveway with charging pole and completely useless for everything and everybody else  ;D

      Well, given I own an electric car, I'm more than happy to offer up advice, information, and actual results. The current generation tend to be good for approx 200-250km range, which fits 95% of most people's journeys. Are they perfect? Far from it.  Are they ideal for most people, yes.

      Up until a couple of years ago, you either had to be wealthy (Tesla) or willing to drive something that said "I'm electric!!!!!!!" (Leaf, i3, etc). Now with more mainstream cars coming onto the market, I think you'd be surprised how prevalent they are.

      Certainly for my case with low electricity prices (although a lot of jurisdictions have low overnight prices), and relatively high petroleum prices, electric works out very very well.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 17, 2018, 09:54:57 pm
      I see plug in hybrids as a good bridge technology to cover the 5% that doesn't work well with current EV technology.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 17, 2018, 10:03:53 pm
      Are they perfect? Far from it.  Are they ideal for most people, yes.
      In other words: Far from perfect cars are ideal for most people, right?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 17, 2018, 10:12:51 pm
      I see plug in hybrids as a good bridge technology to cover the 5% that doesn't work well with current EV technology.
      No. Too expensive AND no range. Just stay clear from EVs and buy an efficient ICE car. As I calculated earlier the financial break even point between a size wise comparable EV and ICE based car is between 150000 and 200000km based on the high price we have to pay for fuel here in the NL. Furthermore the net effect on CO2 emissions from an EV is debatable due to the energy needed for manufacturing the batteries and various electricity production methods. All in all EVs are nice toys just like sports cars. If you can afford one and have a private parking spot to charge it: fine but don't try to sell it as a sensible choice. It just isn't.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 17, 2018, 10:46:03 pm
      The whole point of a plug in hybrid is to get more range than is practical with an EV. As in they're a great fit for those who commute on the order of 10-20 miles daily, but have to make long trips every once in a while.

      It's also worth noting that while very few have the means to make biofuel at home, generating your own electricity at home is surprisingly easy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 17, 2018, 11:10:26 pm
      And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away.
      You keep making references to reactors which don't leave long lasting troublesome isotopes behind. What exactly are you referring to?

      The NextGen reactors which are being developed at NIF, ITER and at 75 other companies.  Paul Allen of Microsoft wealth and Bill Gates have each backing NextGen nuclear companies.  NextGen reactors use low MW/hydrogen atoms as fuel.  Half-life for the radioactive residue is 12.3 years with biological half-life being 10 days.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 17, 2018, 11:27:04 pm
      Are they perfect? Far from it.  Are they ideal for most people, yes.
      In other words: Far from perfect cars are ideal for most people, right?

      Is there such a thing as “the perfect car?”  Don’t think so.  Al depending on where you are going, wheat you are doing, how far you are going and how many people need to travel with you. 

      I have an EV and there ICE.  If’ I’m driving kids to school, EV is perfect.  If I going to HomeCheapo to buy lumbar my truck is perfect.  Long trips with family, my sedan is perfect.  For the commute to work depends which office I will be working at.  The perfect car for one office is the EV because I can use the HOV lanes and the charging station,  But if I’m traveling to the other office, there are no HOV lanes I can use, no charging station and the mileage is a bit beyond the distance the EV can travel on battereies so the perfect car for this trip is my fuel efficient ICE. 

      You will find everyone’s definition of is a bit different.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 17, 2018, 11:39:16 pm
      And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away.
      You keep making references to reactors which don't leave long lasting troublesome isotopes behind. What exactly are you referring to?

      The NextGen reactors which are being developed at NIF, ITER and at 75 other companies.  Paul Allen of Microsoft wealth and Bill Gates have each backing NextGen nuclear companies.  NextGen reactors use low MW/hydrogen atoms as fuel.  Half-life for the radioactive residue is 12.3 years with biological half-life being 10 days.
      This seems about as well researched as your claims about UK roof solar panel.

      NIF and ITER are researching fusion reactions. These use hydrogen, and produce low levels of long half life waste. However, they are just research projects, far from practical application. Both hope to get to the point where they produce significantly more energy than they consume, but they have no expectations of producing so much net energy that anyone would consider them viable for production use. They are certainly important research projects for the longer term, but calling them "Next-Gen" is a heck of a stretch. Its not even clear the techniques they are experimenting with will ever be viable.

      Paul Allen, Bill Gates and others are funding work on things which are genuinely next-gen, but they are using the same old fission processes as current reactors. They expect to make their reactors cheaper, more efficient, and practical to construct in a wider range of sizes than anything in use right now. They should also be far safer than anything in use now, as most failure modes are relatively benign. Because the waste from these new reactors is basically the same as the waste produced right now, it will have just as long a half-life as any other uranium fission based solution.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 18, 2018, 08:13:43 am
      The whole point of a plug in hybrid is to get more range than is practical with an EV. As in they're a great fit for those who commute on the order of 10-20 miles daily, but have to make long trips every once in a while.
      But you still need a place to charge and they are still more expensive while the manufacturing of batteries and electricity production make the amount of CO2 emission savings debatable at least.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 18, 2018, 01:08:17 pm
      You can guarantee that your electricity is zero carbon by installing your own solar. Although if CO2 is your only concern, planting trees would be cheaper.

      And then there are the regular hybrids that work well for those who can't charge an EV. Although that problem is solving itself as EVs become more common.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 18, 2018, 01:26:20 pm
      The bar is set too high for EVs. Perhaps in a decade or two, maybe.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 18, 2018, 04:44:00 pm
      You can guarantee that your electricity is zero carbon by installing your own solar.
      Do the math on how many square meters you need and you'll see an EV needs a huge amount of solar panels. A simple few kW roof mounted system ain't gonna do it. IF you already have that much roof space.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 18, 2018, 04:46:37 pm
      You can guarantee that your electricity is zero carbon by installing your own solar.
      Do the math on how many square meters you need and you'll see an EV needs a huge amount of solar panels. A simple few kW roof mounted system ain't gonna do it. IF you already have that much roof space.
      And good luck charging overnight.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 18, 2018, 04:56:36 pm
      Something like a Nissan Leaf uses 30kWh/100 miles, so for someone who commutes 10 miles daily, that would only be 3kWh daily, easily achieved by a 1kW solar setup. Putting solar on the car itself doesn't work out very well, except for RVs but that's more for use when parked than for driving. Of which, it makes a lot of sense to make plug in hybrid RVs when there's already a great reason to have a big battery bank on those.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 18, 2018, 04:56:56 pm
      I see plug in hybrids as a good bridge technology to cover the 5% that doesn't work well with current EV technology.


      This is exactly right and why we now own 2 PHEVs.  They have most of the advantages of a pure EV and none of the disadvantages.

      In the US approximately 78% of drivers drive less than 40 miles per day. (see below). I don't know the data for Europe but based on my time there I'll bet the number is less.

      I've owned my Volt for 4 years now and my lifetime average is 208 miles per gallon. 
      I've yet to meet anyone who has bought an PHEV who regrets the decision.

      Ignore any naysayers who have not actually owned a PHEV.

      (https://gm-volt.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/omnibus.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 18, 2018, 05:07:11 pm
      You can guarantee that your electricity is zero carbon by installing your own solar.
      Do the math on how many square meters you need and you'll see an EV needs a huge amount of solar panels. A simple few kW roof mounted system ain't gonna do it. IF you already have that much roof space.
      And good luck charging overnight.

      Hmm,  If only there was a  way to store the excess electricity you produce during the day??? ::) ::)

      I live in the Pacific NW - western Washington state - one of the least sunny areas of the country.  Even here, for  the summer months my 4500 watts of PV produces oabout 15 - 20kWh per day.   That is enough to cover my wife an my daily driving.

      In other months - we are dependent (for now) on some grid electricity but  our utility  electricity is 87% hydro and 11% nuclear.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 18, 2018, 05:19:20 pm
      Do the math on how many square meters you need and you'll see an EV needs a huge amount of solar panels. A simple few kW roof mounted system ain't gonna do it. IF you already have that much roof space.
      And good luck charging overnight.
      Hmm,  If only there was a  way to store the excess electricity you produce during the day??? ::) ::)
      ::) ::)
      One that's good and affordable, that doesn't incur in 15% losses everytime you use it, and also preferably with a lifetime of more than a few years too. Does it exist?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 18, 2018, 05:23:47 pm
      Do the math on how many square meters you need and you'll see an EV needs a huge amount of solar panels. A simple few kW roof mounted system ain't gonna do it. IF you already have that much roof space.
      And good luck charging overnight.
      Hmm,  If only there was a  way to store the excess electricity you produce during the day??? ::) ::)
      ::) ::)
      One that's good and affordable, that doesn't incur in 15% losses everytime you use it, and also preferably with a lifetime of more than a few years too. Does it exist?

      Charge discharge efficiency for many types of battery banks is >90%

      Charge/discharge efficiency is a fact of life. Does this keep you from using a cell phone or laptop?   ::)

      Depending on type and use, deep discharge battery banks have an expected lifespan between 15 and 30 years.

      In any case, most grid tie PV setups use the grid for storage of extra daytime energy production so batteries don't come into it.

      Stop trolling.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 18, 2018, 05:48:08 pm
      Charge discharge efficiency for many types of battery banks is >90%
      Charge/discharge efficiency is a fact of life. Does this keep you from using a cell phone or laptop?   ::)

      0.85*0.85->0.72 => to fully charge a 40 kWh EV battery, you'd waste 15.5 kWh.

      Quote
      Depending on type and use, deep discharge battery banks have an expected lifespan between 15 and 30 years.

      You said it, depending on use: light use=>longer life, but charging an EV ~ daily isn't "light use" (for, say, a powerwall), is it?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 18, 2018, 06:01:13 pm
      Charge discharge efficiency for many types of battery banks is >90%
      Charge/discharge efficiency is a fact of life. Does this keep you from using a cell phone or laptop?   ::)

      0.85*0.85->0.72 => to fully charge a 40 kWh EV battery, you'd waste 15.5 kWh.[

      AGM and lithium batteries have better charge efficiencies than that.

      What's your point anyways? PV  panels or so cheap now it is very inexpensive easy to increase a PV array to add an extra 15% if you needed it.

      In any case,  EV energy efficiency is far superior to an ICEs 20% efficiency!

      Quote
      You said it, depending on use: light use=>longer life, but charging an EV ~ daily isn't "light use" (for, say, a powerwall), is it?

      Nonsense. I did not say light use. Deep discharge is deep discharge.  Depending on the battery type, 50 - 90% daily depth of discharge for thousands of cycles is possible and still have 15 - 30 year battery life.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 18, 2018, 06:33:03 pm
      What's your point anyways?
      That on top of a rather big powerwall, you'd need at least (40[kWh]/0.85/0.85)/6[h]/0.1[kW/m²] ~= 93 m² of PVs on a sunny day. That's down right out of the reach for most people that live in cities, and not exactly cheap.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 18, 2018, 06:43:49 pm
      Few drive enough to use 40kWh per day every day. As mentioned before, a Nissan Leaf uses on the order of 30kWh per 100 miles.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 18, 2018, 06:47:39 pm
      What's your point anyways?
      That on top of a rather big powerwall, you'd need at least (40[kWh]/0.85/0.85)/6[h]/0.1[kW/m²] ~= 93 m² of PVs on a sunny day. That's down right out of the reach for most people that live in cities, and not exactly cheap.

      You really have no clue. As I said - I can charge both of our PHEVs with 1 days PV production of 20 kWh from a 4500 watt array enough for each car to drive 20 miles which covers both of our typical daily driving.

      PV installed costs are now a few dollars/watt.  With the money saved on fuel and maintenance - it is quite easy to payback the cost of PV installation.

      True, many will not be able to afford the upfront cost or live somewhere that installation of a PV array is not possible. But many can. 

      And that is an entirely different issue than your trollish comments about not being able to use PV to charge at night or battery efficiency nonsense. :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 18, 2018, 06:55:27 pm
      Something like a Nissan Leaf uses 30kWh/100 miles, so for someone who commutes 10 miles daily,
      If you commute 10 miles daily then you should use an (electric) bicycle.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 18, 2018, 07:00:15 pm
      Something like a Nissan Leaf uses 30kWh/100 miles, so for someone who commutes 10 miles daily,
      If you commute 10 miles daily then you should use an (electric) bicycle.
      Don't you find it rather troublesome to be soaking wet at work?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 18, 2018, 07:04:31 pm
      Something like a Nissan Leaf uses 30kWh/100 miles, so for someone who commutes 10 miles daily,
      If you commute 10 miles daily then you should use an (electric) bicycle.
      Don't you find it rather troublesome to be soaking wet at work?

      Also doesn't work well in the snow or when needing to transport kids. 
      And in my case it means a 5 mile, 2000 foot climb to get home as well - it works but it's slow.
      I do have an electric bicycle as well - but for all those reasons, it sadly gets very little use these days. :(
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 18, 2018, 07:07:19 pm
      And that is an entirely different issue than your trollish comments about not being able to use PV to charge at night or battery efficiency nonsense. :palm:
      If ~ 30% energy loss is ok for you, that's fine. 95% power electronics efficiency + 90% round trip li-ion efficiency times two (once in the powerwall + again in the EV) isn't "nonsense". That's the price to recharge overnight with PVs, and it's only for those that can afford 1)An EV, 2)100m2 of PVs and 3)A rather big powerwall. Which is a tiny minority.

      And, BTW, many families have two cars...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 18, 2018, 07:13:43 pm
      And, BTW, many families have two cars...
      :palm:

      Did you read my post?  We have 2 PHEVs and in summer months, cover our daily commute with a 4.5kW array.   And we live in the least sunny area of the US.  We happen to have a battery back up system (to cover power outages) but most don't because it is entirely unnecessary since daytime production can be fed back into the grid.

      Get over yourself with the less than 100% efficiency bullshit.  Does that keep your from using a phone or laptop? Does it keep you from using any battery powered tools or other devices? Does an ICE's 20% efficiency keep you from driving one?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 18, 2018, 07:18:20 pm
      Something like a Nissan Leaf uses 30kWh/100 miles, so for someone who commutes 10 miles daily,
      If you commute 10 miles daily then you should use an (electric) bicycle.
      Don't you find it rather troublesome to be soaking wet at work?
      Shower or wash. You wouldn't be the only one. If the weather permits I go to a customer on my bike (but that is 35km one way) and take a shower over there.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 18, 2018, 07:22:50 pm
      Hey, mtdoc, I'm glad it works for you.

      But why did you buy hybrids and not BEVs?
      What if you and your wife had to leave home to work from 9 to 5?
      What if your daily commutes were more miles/kWh each?
      What if you lived in a flat?
      Etc.

      It just ~ works, and only for a very tiny few.

      My phone eats just a few Wh not in the tens of thousands Wh daily.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 18, 2018, 07:38:25 pm
      But why did you buy hybrids and not BEVs?
      Because availalble PHEVs are a better solution right now. I tried to talk my wife into a Tesla model X but she felt it would be too pretentious.  ::)

      Quote
      What if you and your wife had to leave home to work from 9 to 5?
      Huh?  Sometimes we do go back and forth to home.  We can charge while we're home and in any case can get 2-3 roundtrips from home to work without needing to charge.

      Quote
      What if your daily commutes were more miles/kWh each?
      What if you lived in a flat?
      Etc.

      In all those cases, driving a PHEV would still mean much better gas mileage and would mean less maintenance costs.

      Quote
      My phone eats just a few Wh not in the tens of kWh daily.
      Completely irrelevant to the point.

      No one said that PHEVs are the answer for everyone - just that with current available vehicles and charging infrastructure they are a very good option for most people.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 18, 2018, 11:43:31 pm
      And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away.
      You keep making references to reactors which don't leave long lasting troublesome isotopes behind. What exactly are you referring to?

      The NextGen reactors which are being developed at NIF, ITER and at 75 other companies.  Paul Allen of Microsoft wealth and Bill Gates have each backing NextGen nuclear companies.  NextGen reactors use low MW/hydrogen atoms as fuel.  Half-life for the radioactive residue is 12.3 years with biological half-life being 10 days.
      This seems about as well researched as your claims about UK roof solar panel.

      NIF and ITER are researching fusion reactions. These use hydrogen, and produce low levels of long half life waste. However, they are just research projects, far from practical application. Both hope to get to the point where they produce significantly more energy than they consume, but they have no expectations of producing so much net energy that anyone would consider them viable for production use. They are certainly important research projects for the longer term, but calling them "Next-Gen" is a heck of a stretch. Its not even clear the techniques they are experimenting with will ever be viable.

      Paul Allen, Bill Gates and others are funding work on things which are genuinely next-gen, but they are using the same old fission processes as current reactors. They expect to make their reactors cheaper, more efficient, and practical to construct in a wider range of sizes than anything in use right now. They should also be far safer than anything in use now, as most failure modes are relatively benign. Because the waste from these new reactors is basically the same as the waste produced right now, it will have just as long a half-life as any other uranium fission based solution.

      My research on roof top solar an just my observations.  Interestingly in Northern Ireland where as I understand it the weather is much worse for solar is where I have seen the most roof-top solar.  Not sure who thought the weather in the UK was terrible for roof-top solar when there appears to be more where the weather is the worst.

      There are currently 75 companies and organizations working on NextGen nuclear. You are mistaken about Bill Gates’s compnay.  His company is not ittereation nuclear, and will use the urgent supply of nuclear “wate” material.   Paul Allen’s company is working on NextGen or fusion.  NIF, ITER are research projects which will hopefully lead to the design of NextGen nuclear.  But what about the other 70 companies which are more than just research projects?

      The 100 page research paper from what I understiand is not including the work these 70 companies are doing.     





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 19, 2018, 05:11:46 am
      Have you ever noticed that the people nay-saying BEV or even PHEV don't have one?

      My BEV gets about 14kWh/100km, which is about $1.20 worth of electricity, and when I do need to travel more than 200km, I plan accordingly.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 19, 2018, 07:42:22 am
      Have you ever noticed that the people nay-saying BEV or even PHEV don't have one?
      That is a strawman argument. You just wanted a nice toy to show off and are now seeking justification.
      Quote
      My BEV gets about 14kWh/100km, which is about $1.20 worth of electricity, and when I do need to travel more than 200km, I plan accordingly.
      Indeed and besides the financial part (much higher purchase price) which doesn't make sense the when I do need to travel more than 200km, I plan accordingly seals the NO-deal. Why pay more for something which does less?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 19, 2018, 08:24:30 am
      My BEV gets about 14kWh/100km, which is about $1.20 worth of electricity
      Yeah, but make that 16.4 kWh/100km... (divide by 0.85) >:D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 19, 2018, 02:06:52 pm
      I see plug in hybrids as a good bridge technology to cover the 5% that doesn't work well with current EV technology.


      This is exactly right and why we now own 2 PHEVs.  They have most of the advantages of a pure EV and none of the disadvantages.

      In the US approximately 78% of drivers drive less than 40 miles per day. (see below). I don't know the data for Europe but based on my time there I'll bet the number is less.

      I've owned my Volt for 4 years now and my lifetime average is 208 miles per gallon. 
      I've yet to meet anyone who has bought an PHEV who regrets the decision.

      Ignore any naysayers who have not actually owned a PHEV.

      (https://gm-volt.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/omnibus.jpg)

      Those figures in the graph would not apply to folks in California....  Not even the retired ones.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 19, 2018, 02:40:40 pm
      Quote
      My BEV gets about 14kWh/100km, which is about $1.20 worth of electricity, and when I do need to travel more than 200km, I plan accordingly.
      Indeed and besides the financial part (much higher purchase price) which doesn't make sense the when I do need to travel more than 200km, I plan accordingly seals the NO-deal. Why pay more for something which does less?
      Plug in hybrids are not subject to that limitation. Also, has anyone noticed that if you want a CVT that lasts, pretty much your only affordable option is a Toyota hybrid or plug in hybrid? (And assuming you don't want a manual transmission, the only other option seems to be unreliable DCTs.)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 19, 2018, 03:46:24 pm
      Also, has anyone noticed that if you want a CVT that lasts, pretty much your only affordable option is a Toyota hybrid or plug in hybrid?
      What's wrong with Toyota's CVT that are not in hybrid cars? Other people, like Honda, make satisfactory CVTs. It seems to be mostly the JATCO (subsidiary of Nissan) CVTs that have got them a bad name for reliability.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: MasterBuilder on July 19, 2018, 03:51:52 pm
      And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away.
      You keep making references to reactors which don't leave long lasting troublesome isotopes behind. What exactly are you referring to?

      The NextGen reactors which are being developed at NIF, ITER and at 75 other companies.  Paul Allen of Microsoft wealth and Bill Gates have each backing NextGen nuclear companies.  NextGen reactors use low MW/hydrogen atoms as fuel.  Half-life for the radioactive residue is 12.3 years with biological half-life being 10 days.
      This seems about as well researched as your claims about UK roof solar panel.

      NIF and ITER are researching fusion reactions. These use hydrogen, and produce low levels of long half life waste. However, they are just research projects, far from practical application. Both hope to get to the point where they produce significantly more energy than they consume, but they have no expectations of producing so much net energy that anyone would consider them viable for production use. They are certainly important research projects for the longer term, but calling them "Next-Gen" is a heck of a stretch. Its not even clear the techniques they are experimenting with will ever be viable.

      Paul Allen, Bill Gates and others are funding work on things which are genuinely next-gen, but they are using the same old fission processes as current reactors. They expect to make their reactors cheaper, more efficient, and practical to construct in a wider range of sizes than anything in use right now. They should also be far safer than anything in use now, as most failure modes are relatively benign. Because the waste from these new reactors is basically the same as the waste produced right now, it will have just as long a half-life as any other uranium fission based solution.

      My research on roof top solar an just my observations.  Interestingly in Northern Ireland where as I understand it the weather is much worse for solar is where I have seen the most roof-top solar.  Not sure who thought the weather in the UK was terrible for roof-top solar when there appears to be more where the weather is the worst.

      There are currently 75 companies and organizations working on NextGen nuclear. You are mistaken about Bill Gates’s compnay.  His company is not ittereation nuclear, and will use the urgent supply of nuclear “wate” material.   Paul Allen’s company is working on NextGen or fusion.  NIF, ITER are research projects which will hopefully lead to the design of NextGen nuclear.  But what about the other 70 companies which are more than just research projects?

      The 100 page research paper from what I understiand is not including the work these 70 companies are doing.     

      This would be why you saw lots of solar panels in Northern Ireland:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_Heat_Incentive_scandal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_Heat_Incentive_scandal)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 19, 2018, 04:03:17 pm
      This would be why you saw lots of solar panels in Northern Ireland:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_Heat_Incentive_scandal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_Heat_Incentive_scandal)
      I thought that scandal was about useless space heating, not solar roof panels. The wikipedia page also seems to indicate that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 19, 2018, 04:31:06 pm
      What's wrong with Toyota's CVT that are not in hybrid cars? Other people, like Honda, make satisfactory CVTs. It seems to be mostly the JATCO (subsidiary of Nissan) CVTs that have got them a bad name for reliability.
      Toyota hybrids use a clutchless CVT design. It differs significantly from most CVT designs in that it does not use a belt that's a common failure point.
      http://techno-fandom.org/~hobbit/cars/THS_ii_part_2.pdf (http://techno-fandom.org/~hobbit/cars/THS_ii_part_2.pdf)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 19, 2018, 04:43:48 pm
      Those figures in the graph would not apply to folks in California....  Not even the retired ones.

      Actually they do.  In fact, Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area are right in the middle of the large US cities on miles driven per day (http://www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/daily-miles-traveled).  This matches well with my experience, living my first 29 years in the Los Angeles area and 7 years in the SF Bay area. 

      Most people I know in California do not commute long distances, though the do spend a long time in their car due to traffic. This makes the argument for usung an EV in those places even stonger.
      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=479495;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 19, 2018, 05:02:41 pm
      Why pay more for something which does less?

      Lower cost of ownership therefore lower overall cost.

      More convenient for everyday use - no time and miles wasted driving to and waiting at a gas/petrol station.

      Greater energy efficiency.

      In most cases better performance.

      If you care about it - lower CO2 and lower pollutant emissions (potentially much lower depending on how your electricity is generated).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 19, 2018, 05:11:15 pm
      Those figures in the graph would not apply to folks in California....  Not even the retired ones.

      Actually they do.  In fact, Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area are right in the middle of the large US cities on miles driven per day (http://www.vitalsigns.mtc.ca.gov/daily-miles-traveled).  This matches well with my experience, living my first 29 years in the Los Angeles area and 7 years in the SF Bay area. 

      Most people I know in California do not commute long distances, though the do spend a long time in their car due to traffic. This makes the argument for usung an EV in those places even stonger.
      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=479495;image)

      Based on the number of Tesla’s and other EV’s I see on the roads in the Bay Area you are correct.  EV charginging rations are fairly easy to find.  The one limitation EVs have is their range.  There just don’t have the range needed for a trip to Lake Tahoe or a trip to the wine country. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 19, 2018, 05:32:40 pm
      The scandals over the renewable energy is not just a US thing is it.  And some dummy posted it had something to do with with weather.   :-DD


       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 19, 2018, 05:39:22 pm
      Why pay more for something which does less?

      Lower cost of ownership therefore lower overall cost.

      More convenient for everyday use - no time and miles wasted driving to and waiting at a gas/petrol station.

      Greater energy efficiency.

      In most cases better performance.

      If you care about it - lower CO2 and lower pollutant emissions (potentially much lower depending on how your electricity is generated).

      Why pay more for something that does less?  That’s called capatistitic marketing.   That’s why people pay for bottled water instead of getting a drink for free from a drinking fountain.  It’s also why some people buy a Bentley instead of a Skoda. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 19, 2018, 05:40:18 pm
      There just don’t have the range needed for a trip to Lake Tahoe or a trip to the wine country.

       :palm:

       What are you taking about?  The wine country is less than 100 miles from the Bay Area. 

      Lake Tahoe is about 200 miles which would be a stretch for a Chevy Bolt - though chargng while stopping for a meal would solve that issue.

       Neither is an issue for Teslas give their range and the availability of their super chargers on these routes.

      And of course PHEVs have no range issues at all.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 19, 2018, 05:52:45 pm
      There just don’t have the range needed for a trip to Lake Tahoe or a trip to the wine country.

       :palm:

       What are you taking about?  The wine country is less than 100 miles from the Bay Area. 

      Lake Tahoe is about 200 miles which would be a stretch for a Chevy Bolt - though chargng while stopping for a meal would solve that issue.

       Neither is an issue for Teslas give their range and the availability of their super chargers on these routes.

      And of course PHEVs have range issues at all.

      You must be ill informed.  Tesla engineers who like skiing and wine buy Volts as they don’t trust there Tesla’s to be able to make the trip reliably. 

      A shot meal while the Tesla gets recharged?  Clueless.....  Tesla drivers who do try to make the trip in their Tesla they find there are many others doing The same thing.  I’ve counted 14 Tesla’s all waiting in line to get quick charge to finish the trip.  With 14 Tesla’s all waiting to get charged it would be more than a quick bite.  It would be more like a 7 course meal before they could get a charge.  And you know the part that really sucks.......  Someone has to be in the car to move it along in the queue.

      In theory you are correct......  But then there is reality.
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 19, 2018, 06:07:25 pm
      Tesla engineers who like skiing and wine buy Volts as they don’t trust there Tesla’s to be able to make the trip reliably. 
      Source??

      If one is trying to drive to Tahoe and back the same day, then yes, lines at Teslas charging stations would mean a wait.  But it’s a non-issue if spending the night (as many do) as long as you stay someplace where you can charge. I know someone who lives in SF with a model S that does just that.

      As far as your nonsense claim about the Wine Country - there is zero issues with range getting there and back the same day without a recharge for many BEVs.

      There’s no question that range can be an issue for BEVs depending on destination but the SF to wine country trip is not one of them. Tahoe could be if one wants to go there and back in one day. (I’ve done that in an ICE and it sucks spending 5-6 hours in the car just for one day of skiing).

      PHEVs have no range issues of course. I think the optimal solution for the typical 2 car American family would be one BEV and one PHEV for long trips.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 19, 2018, 06:33:40 pm
      Tesla engineers who like skiing and wine buy Volts as they don’t trust there Tesla’s to be able to make the trip reliably. 
      Source??

      If one is trying to drive to Tahoe and back the same day, then yes, lines at Teslas charging stations would mean a wait.  But it’s a non-issue if spending the night (as many do) as long as you stay someplace where you can charge. I know someone who lives in SF with a model S that does just that.

      As far as your nonsense claim about the Wine Country - there is zero issues with range getting there and back the same day without a recharge for many BEVs.

      There’s no question that range can be an issue for BEVs depending on destination but the SF to wine country trip is not one of them. Tahoe could be if one wants to go there and back in one day. (I’ve done that in an ICE and it sucks spending 5-6 hours in the car just for one day of skiing).

      PHEVs have no range issues of course. I think the optimal solution for the typical 2 car American family would be one BEV and one PHEV for long trips.

      You're arguing with the same guy that said very little of my energy comes from Hydroelectric (90% of it does here).  He's here to talk about nuclear, not Electric Cars.  He's also very confused about the availability of charging stations between the HQ of Tesla, and the Battery Provider of Tesla (outside Reno). There are a *lot*

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 19, 2018, 07:18:03 pm

      You're arguing with the same guy that said very little of my energy comes from Hydroelectric (90% of it does here).  He's here to talk about nuclear, not Electric Cars.  He's also very confused about the availability of charging stations between the HQ of Tesla, and the Battery Provider of Tesla (outside Reno). There are a *lot*

      Yeah, you’re right. In his short time here he has a history of repeatedly making unsubstantiated claims.

      I suspect he saw a line at a Tesla charging station and generalized.  Hell, when I used to live in the Bay area and drive to Tahoe for a ski weekend, it was not uncommon to see long lines at gas stations in Tahoe on Sunday night due to poor planning by ICE drivers. Ther are surely Tesla drivers who do the same.

      Wow, that is a lot of charging stations! I had no idea there were so many.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 19, 2018, 08:05:27 pm
      Hell, when I used to live in the Bay area and drive to Tahoe for a ski weekend, it was not uncommon to see long lines at gas stations in Tahoe on Sunday night due to poor planning by ICE drivers.

      But as it only takes minutes not hours to refill an ICE those queues are quick.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 19, 2018, 08:34:29 pm
      Go to Brodaway Cheverlot on any day and you can find Tesla engineers either buying a Volt or getting it serviced and talk to them.  Or rather talk to their wives as they complain about the distance limatiotions of Teslas.  Or got to Tahoe during ski season and talk to them.
      Or better yet go to Vacaville on a weekend and look at all of the Tesla’s waiting to get a charge so they can make it home.

      As for a trip to the wine country.  Can you tell me where all of the charging stations are in Sonoma?   Yes there are some, but have you ever been to the wine country on a weekend?   Where exactly are the Tesla folks going to get a charge to make it home?

      Again yes there are some charging stations but not enough for the number of people who need charges when they need them.

      Need more proof?  Use your head and do a bit of math.  If 500 Teslas all drive to Tahoe or Sanoma for the weekend. Now lets’s be extremely generous and say there are 75 or even 100 charging stations.  Now most people ski or wine taste all day which means they more or less al leave when the lifts/tasting rooms close.  So now you have 500 Teslas all looking for a charge more or less at the same time.   What evidence do you have that Tesla’s won’t be lined up waiting for a charge.

      Just do the math.  Of course there are going to be Teslas lined up to be charged.  It’s a simple calculation.

      I can’t imagine Tesla is going to install more charging stations on either weekend rate for increased capacity which would only be used a few weekends per year.

      With a Volt all of this is a non-issue as long as there are petrol stations. 

      Volt is the perfect transition car.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 19, 2018, 08:45:04 pm
      Hell, when I used to live in the Bay area and drive to Tahoe for a ski weekend, it was not uncommon to see long lines at gas stations in Tahoe on Sunday night due to poor planning by ICE drivers.

      But as it only takes minutes not hours to refill an ICE those queues are quick.

      The point is that seeing a line at a Tesla charging station is not indicative of the usual wait for charging and given the numerous charging stations available, points more to poor planning by some Tesla drivers just like there is poor planning by some ICE drivers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 19, 2018, 09:06:43 pm

      As for a trip to the wine country.  Can you tell me where all of the charging stations are in Sonoma?
      Now I know you're trolling. Boffin just posted a map.

      Quote
      Yes there are some, but have you ever been to the wine country on a weekend?
      Yes

      Quote
         Where exactly are the Tesla folks going to get a charge to make it home?
        :palm:  Why would they need to charge?. It's less than 100 miles round trip from SF to Napa.   It's less than 200 miles round trip between most of the wineries in the wine country and most of the Bay area and less than 250 miles from the southern tip of the SF Bay Area to the northern reach of the Sonoma/Napa wine country. 

      I'm beginning to think you've never been there.

      But of course if they wanted to charge there are multiple options as the map Boffin posted shows.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 19, 2018, 09:52:00 pm

      As for a trip to the wine country.  Can you tell me where all of the charging stations are in Sonoma?
      Now I know you're trolling. Boffin just posted a map.

      Quote
      Yes there are some, but have you ever been to the wine country on a weekend?
      Yes

      Quote
         Where exactly are the Tesla folks going to get a charge to make it home?
        :palm:  Why would they need to charge?. It's less than 100 miles round trip from SF to Napa.   It's less than 200 miles round trip between most of the wineries in the wine country and most of the Bay area and less than 250 miles from the southern tip of the SF Bay Area to the northern reach of the Sonoma/Napa wine country. 

      I'm beginning to think you've never been there.

      But of course if they wanted to charge there are multiple options as the map Boffin posted shows.

      I think he must be trolling, especially the unwillingness to discuss EV cars, and not nuclear in this thread.

      As for my map, it is a little misleading, it doesn't show all charging stations, only those compatible with my car; so there's actually more.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on July 19, 2018, 09:58:13 pm
      Also, has anyone noticed that if you want a CVT that lasts, pretty much your only affordable option is a Toyota hybrid or plug in hybrid?
      What's wrong with Toyota's CVT that are not in hybrid cars? Other people, like Honda, make satisfactory CVTs. It seems to be mostly the JATCO (subsidiary of Nissan) CVTs that have got them a bad name for reliability.
      Yup, we have two Honda Civic hybrids.  One is at 150+K miles, the other is over 170K, no problem with the all-mechanical CVT.  Honda does do a bit of periodic service on them, however.  Mostly, just fluid changes.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 19, 2018, 10:45:57 pm

      As for a trip to the wine country.  Can you tell me where all of the charging stations are in Sonoma?
      Now I know you're trolling. Boffin just posted a map.

      Quote
      Yes there are some, but have you ever been to the wine country on a weekend?
      Yes

      Quote
         Where exactly are the Tesla folks going to get a charge to make it home?
        :palm:  Why would they need to charge?. It's less than 100 miles round trip from SF to Napa.   It's less than 200 miles round trip between most of the wineries in the wine country and most of the Bay area and less than 250 miles from the southern tip of the SF Bay Area to the northern reach of the Sonoma/Napa wine country. 

      I'm beginning to think you've never been there.

      But of course if they wanted to charge there are multiple options as the map Boffin posted shows.

      I think he must be trolling, especially the unwillingness to discuss EV cars, and not nuclear in this thread.

      As for my map, it is a little misleading, it doesn't show all charging stations, only those compatible with my car; so there's actually more.

      Why do you all anyone who has an opinion a troll?  Have you ever been to the wine country?  Don’t this so because if you had making all of the side trips one could easily need a charge before returning.

      Why do you say I’m unwilling to discuss EVs.  Silly, I own one and will be buying another.  So please don’t say things which are not true.

      My post had to do with folks who own Tesla’s having to wait in line to get a charge.  I hope you aren’t as obtuse is the other guy.  Point being made is Teals engineers are buying Volts so they can take trips to the wine country and to Tahoe without having to wait in line to get a charge.  The other guy thinks a handful of charging stations on the way to/from Tahoe are enough to handle all of the Teslas targeting to Tahoe and back for a weekend.

      What the other guy hasn’t figured out is the place where Tesla drivers like to get a charge only has two chargaing stationss.  So lets say if there are just 200 Tesla’s who need a change those two charging stations I have seen have had a line of 14 Teslas waiting a charge.  The other guy was saying people could get a quick bite to eat while waiting for a charge.  Again he is wrong as one has to sit in the car an move it along in the queue as each car finishes.  It’s not going to be a quick bite and it’s not going to be quick either with 14 cars in line. 

      The solution the Tesla engineers have found is they buy a Volt.

      So dude stop show your fellow man a bit of common curtesy and read their posts before proclaiming they are a troll. 


       




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 19, 2018, 11:09:34 pm
      Why pay more for something which does less?
      Lower cost of ownership therefore lower overall cost.
      Not true. I've shown the math. Just to offset the purchase price you have to drive 150000km or more assuming the electricity is free and the batteries last forever. And then there is also the unknown value when you want to trade it in. The next owner is likely to need a new battery at some point.
      Quote
      More convenient for everyday use - no time and miles wasted driving to and waiting at a gas/petrol station.
      Not true. Waiting 60 minutes at a charging station or 5 minutes at a petrol station (which is along the way anyway) for the same range is not more convenient. I for sure don't go driving around for miles to a gas station. I don't have to.
      Quote
      Greater energy efficiency.
      That is highly debatable and greatly dependant on how the electricity is generated.
      Quote
      In most cases better performance.
      But for a much shorter period of time and the batteries don't like the abuse either. In the end you want a functional car to go from A to B and not a fun toy. If you want a fun toy then a Ford Mustang is cheaper at US $27k compared to the average EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 20, 2018, 01:11:22 am
      Why pay more for something which does less?
      Lower cost of ownership therefore lower overall cost.
      Not true. I've shown the math.

      Bullshit. What math have you shown? I own an EV. In 4 years I've already saved about $4k in fuel cost and $500 in oil and brake service not needed.

      And BTW - as has previously been shown here, you can get an EV for the same price or not much more than a comparable ICE.  I paid $32K for my Volt before any rebates. 
      Quote
      Quote
      More convenient for everyday use - no time and miles wasted driving to and waiting at a gas/petrol station.
      Not true. Waiting 60 minutes at a charging station or 5 minutes at a petrol station (which is along the way anyway) for the same range is not more convenient.

      Bullshit #2.  I've never waited at a charging station and neither do most EV owners.  They mostly charge at home but may also charge work, while shopping or while at a restaurant.

      Quote
      Quote
      Greater energy efficiency.
      That is highly debatable and greatly dependant on how the electricity is generated.

      It is not debatable. An EV is far more efficient at converting energy to motion than an ICE. Period.

      Quote
      Quote
      In most cases better performance.
      But for a much shorter period of time and the batteries don't like the abuse either.
      More bullshit. What do you mean "don't like abuse" ?  ICE don't like abuse either. There is no need to "abuse" and EVs batteries to get better performance than most equivalently priced ICE vehicles.

      Quote
      In the end you want a functional car to go from A to B and not a fun toy.
        Right, so why doesn't everyone just drive a 10 year old tin can costing $2k?

      Quote
      If you want a fun toy then a Ford Mustang is cheaper at US $27k compared to the average EV.
      Of course there are so many more ICE models available that there are some bargain performance cars, but you pay a big price for those in other ways - passenger comfort and gas mileage - for example
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 20, 2018, 01:18:08 am
      Why pay more for something which does less?
      Lower cost of ownership therefore lower overall cost.
      Not true. I've shown the math. Just to offset the purchase price you have to drive 150000km or more assuming the electricity is free and the batteries last forever. And then there is also the unknown value when you want to trade it in. The next owner is likely to need a new battery at some point.

      No, you haven't shown the math.  Your argument was "Your EV" vs "Extremely inexpensive gasoline vehicle".

      I've shown the math, here, in my jurisdiction, and the EV will pay for itself in about 4 yrs (about 60,000km)
      In this particular case we can compare apples to apples as the Golf is one of the few cars offered in both gasoline & electric.

      https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1624360/#msg1624360 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1624360/#msg1624360)
      https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1624282/#msg1624282 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1624282/#msg1624282)

      For 100km it costs me $1.18 (electricity) vs $10.23 (same car, but on gasoline @ 1.459/l, @ 7l/100km), a savings of $9.05/100 km, or 0.0905/km

      So for the roughly C$5500 difference, I need to go approx 60,000km, about 4 yrs

      That doesn't take into account

      The math might not work for you, but it does for me, quite demonstratively.


      EDIT: I quoted the gasoline consumption too low (it's actually 8l/100km), so the payoff is even faster
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 20, 2018, 01:20:18 am
      Why do you all anyone who has an opinion a troll? 

      It has nothing to do with opinion. You have repeatedly in this thread and multiple other threads, stated something as a fact without any reference or source and which are demonstrably false. When called out and shown evidence of the mistruth of your statement, you either ignore the facts and keep repeating the same statement or move onto another subject again stating things as factual (not opinion) that are not accurate and the pattern repeats over and over in multiple threads.

      If you are not purposely trolling then please either back up your statements with reputable sources or make it clear that you are just offering a guess or opinion.  Once someone shows a source refuting your statement, don't just keep repeating the same statement unless you can offer an alternative reputable source backing up your statement
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 20, 2018, 07:49:25 am
      Well if I look at the new car models that the big manufacturers like VW are now giving details about we see not much EV, a little bit Hybrid but mostly what they wrongly call mild-hybrid because it has not much to do with the existing hybrids:

      48V power besides the 12V power
      48V LiIon pack possibly Solid State/supercap in coming years
      Starter motor at 48V with sidefunction of torque increase
      ICE motor

      So it is just about saving fuel not about abandoning ICE.
      These models last at least 6 to 8 years so it will not go as quick as some of you think.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 20, 2018, 03:49:28 pm
      No, you haven't shown the math.  Your argument was "Your EV" vs "Extremely inexpensive gasoline vehicle".
      No, I compared an equivalent gasoline vehicle to compare apples with apples. The Ford Focus is targeted at the same audience as the VW Golf and thus lives in the same price range and has similar abilities. You are just proving my point that you seek justification for your purchase and therefore choose to ignore/warp the numbers. That is a natural reaction (kinda like Fungus pushing the Rigol DS1054Z to everyone).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 20, 2018, 05:09:54 pm
      No, you haven't shown the math.  Your argument was "Your EV" vs "Extremely inexpensive gasoline vehicle".
      No, I compared an equivalent gasoline vehicle to compare apples with apples. The Ford Focus is targeted at the same audience as the VW Golf and thus lives in the same price range and has similar abilities. You are just proving my point that you seek justification for your purchase and therefore choose to ignore/warp the numbers.

      Let me just summarize what you're saying:

      "A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples, but a Ford Focus*1 vs VW eGolf is apples to apples".

      Sorry, but you're so wrong here.


      *1: with an engine not available in my market

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 20, 2018, 05:40:58 pm
      Tesla engineers who like skiing and wine buy Volts as they don’t trust there Tesla’s to be able to make the trip reliably. 
      Source??

      If one is trying to drive to Tahoe and back the same day, then yes, lines at Teslas charging stations would mean a wait.  But it’s a non-issue if spending the night (as many do) as long as you stay someplace where you can charge. I know someone who lives in SF with a model S that does just that.

      As far as your nonsense claim about the Wine Country - there is zero issues with range getting there and back the same day without a recharge for many BEVs.

      There’s no question that range can be an issue for BEVs depending on destination but the SF to wine country trip is not one of them. Tahoe could be if one wants to go there and back in one day. (I’ve done that in an ICE and it sucks spending 5-6 hours in the car just for one day of skiing).

      PHEVs have no range issues of course. I think the optimal solution for the typical 2 car American family would be one BEV and one PHEV for long trips.

      You're arguing with the same guy that said very little of my energy comes from Hydroelectric (90% of it does here).  He's here to talk about nuclear, not Electric Cars.  He's also very confused about the availability of charging stations between the HQ of Tesla, and the Battery Provider of Tesla (outside Reno). There are a *lot*

      Your map is proving my point.....  Just look at how few charging stations there are on Hwy 50 and 80 for the number of cars that travel to Tahoe for a ski weekend.   Sure there are charginign stations which miles from the freeway but just consider how silly these options are for EV car owners.  They either have to wait in line to get a charge at a charging stations close tot he freeway and possibly wait in line for hours.  Or they can Or they can drive miles out of there way searching for a charging station and possibly wait in line there too.

      And holy crap if EV drivers aren’t really screwed if they are going to Kirkwood.  How they hack can they avoid not being in a line. 

      Have you ever been to Tahoe on a ski weekend with an EV?  Or are you just trolling.  Not sure how any EV driver could do any planning for it.  Is it possible to reserve a charging time days in advance?  And what happens if you are a late because of traffic.     

      And just look how much worse it is for people traveling to the wine country.  They are really screwed as there are places that don’t even have chargaing stations.  Just look on the map.  Sure they are along 101 but why would someone want to drive for miles out of their way to get a charge.

      Have you ever driven to the wine country with an EV on a busy weekend recently?  Or is this you attempt at just being a super asshole troll?

      For some guy who is quick to call people who own and EV and make these getaways often I’m giving you an eyewitness report of what I have seen.  Can you say the same?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 20, 2018, 05:58:43 pm
      You have repeatedly in this thread and multiple other threads, stated something as a fact without any reference or source and which are demonstrably false. When called out and shown evidence of the mistruth of your statement, you either ignore the facts and keep repeating the same statement or move onto another subject again stating things as factual (not opinion) that are not accurate and the pattern repeats over and over in multiple threads.

      Yep. And the pattern repeats. ::)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 20, 2018, 06:05:00 pm
      Let me just summarize what you're saying:

      "A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples, but a Ford Focus*1 vs VW eGolf is apples to apples".

      No no, he didn't say "A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples", the rest is correct, and true.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 20, 2018, 06:19:19 pm
      Let me just summarize what you're saying:

      "A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples, but a Ford Focus*1 vs VW eGolf is apples to apples".

      No no, he didn't say "A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples", the rest is correct, and true.

      If your argument is that there will always be some cheap, crappy, poorly performing ICE vehicle way cheaper than some particular EV - then you've lost.

      And even the cheap tin can cars will probably cost you more in the long run.

      Why do any of us buy quality tools?  Why don't we all just buy $10 multimeters, $200 DSOs, and cheap crappy hand tools?...

      And if the true cost of ownership is the most important factor, in what alternate universe is saving $50-100 (or more!) in fuel costs per month not financially sound?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 20, 2018, 06:42:07 pm
      [..]some cheap, crappy, poorly performing[..]

      Ha, I've had two golf gti 8v/16v mk2 and two focus tddi/tdci mk1, VW never again!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 20, 2018, 06:49:21 pm
      Let me just summarize what you're saying:

      "A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples, but a Ford Focus*1 vs VW eGolf is apples to apples".

      No no, he didn't say "A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples", the rest is correct, and true.

      If your argument is that there will always be some cheap, crappy, poorly performing ICE vehicle way cheaper than some particular EV - then you've lost.

      And even the cheap tin can cars will probably cost you more in the long run.

      Why do any of us buy quality tools?  Why don't we all just buy $10 multimeters, $200 DSOs, and cheap crappy hand tools?...

      And if the true cost of ownership is the most important factor, in what alternate universe is saving $50-100 (or more!) in fuel costs per month not financially sound?
      Spending $8k more buys 8 years of fuel (note that Boffin is talking Canadian dollars) and you don't know for how long you are spending that amount on fuel each month. A job change may reduce the amount of fuel or alternatively need more range from the EV than it has.

      And as I wrote before: the Ford Focus is in the same segment as the VW Golf. These cars are made to compete directly so they both have to deal with cost savings in order to be profitable. The difference is in how they appeal to people (looks, ride, comfort) but quality wise they are equal. Maybe in your mind VW is better than Ford or vice versa but in the end the TCO is what counts.

      Which gets me to this: There is a funny story about the Ford Focus and how I got one. My uncle hates Ford. Litterally for decades I have been hearing Ford sucks. Ford is unreliable. Ford is cheap sh*t, stories about how company cars fell apart (I'm talking about torn in half!), etc, etc. The last time I needed a 'new' car I just kept coming back to the Ford Focus. I looked at all the cars in that segment from all major manufacturers for reliability, durability (rust is an issue around here) and cost of maintenance/repairs (common issues). The Ford Focus just came out on top but would I dare to defy my uncle? I ended up buying one and it is cheap to run indeed. Including everything about 16 or 17 eurocents per km. It is about time for a next car because it is near 320k km. I have not decided what to buy yet and maybe I'll just give the Ford Focus a major overhaul for kicks and see if I can get another 160k km out of it (I may get the labour for free). OTOH the 1.0 Ecoboost engines look mighty interesting and the reliability seems to be OK (except for some teething problems but these have been addressed).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 20, 2018, 06:53:38 pm
      In what alternate universe is saving $50-100 (or more!) in fuel costs per month not financially sound?

      That's not so because you've got to pony up front many more $ for the EV... and then (unless it's a hybrid) you also need to have another (ICE) car for long trips. Where's the savings then?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 20, 2018, 07:10:36 pm
      In what alternate universe is saving $50-100 (or more!) in fuel costs per month not financially sound?

      That's not so because you've got to pony up front many more $ for the EV... and then (unless it's an hybrid) you also need to have another (ICE) car for long trips. Where's the savings then?

       :palm:  If I pay $5-$10K more for an equivalent EV but save $1 - 2K a year in fuel and maintenance then, well you do the math...

      BTW, my Volt only cost me $32K ($24.5K) after tax credit - so it actually cost less than a similarly equipped and performing ICE vehicle. (Same is true for my wife's Pacifica PHEV we bought last year).

      By the time I pass it to my son when he turns 16 in 4 more years . It will have already saved me aproximately $10K in fuel and maintenance savings.   ;D

      Even better, my son will have a car with very low cost of ownership! 


      Edit ( fixed brain fart on the math - sorry!)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 20, 2018, 07:20:44 pm
      In what alternate universe is saving $50-100 (or more!) in fuel costs per month not financially sound?

      That's not so because you've got to pony up front many more $ for the EV... and then (unless it's an hybrid) you also need to have another (ICE) car for long trips. Where's the savings then?

       :palm:  If I pay $5-$10K more for an equivalent EV but save $4K a year in fuel and maintenance then, well you do the math...

      BTW, my Volt only cost me $32K ($24.5K) after tax credit - so it actually cost less than a similarly equipped and performing ICE vehicle. (Same is true for my wife's Pacifica PHEV we bought last year).

      By the time I pass it to my son when he turns 16 in 4 more years. It will have already saved me the entire cost in fuel savings.  It will have virtually been free!!  ;D

      Even better, my son will have a car with very low cost of ownership!
      Until you have to change the battery. That is an unknown cost and there is not much data available to predict why and when this will need to happen.

      By the way. According to this website (first hit I got from Google) the Volt is more expensive to run compared to the Ford Focus:
      https://repairpal.com/cars/chevrolet/volt/2017 (https://repairpal.com/cars/chevrolet/volt/2017)
      https://repairpal.com/cars/ford/focus/2016 (https://repairpal.com/cars/ford/focus/2016)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 20, 2018, 07:23:39 pm

      By the way. According to this website the Volt is more expensive to run compared to the Ford Focus:
      https://repairpal.com/cars/chevrolet/volt/2017 (https://repairpal.com/cars/chevrolet/volt/2017)
      https://repairpal.com/cars/ford/focus/2016 (https://repairpal.com/cars/ford/focus/2016)

      A Ford Focus??  :-DD  I wouldn't be caught dead driving such a POS car. 

      And I call BS on those numbers.  They are based on assuming the need to repair several of a Volts ICE components and assume someone is driving in ICE mode the same amount of miles as the Focus.  Their website algorithm is obviously not designed for PHEVs and assumes heavy ICE use.

      In 4 years I've only put about 3k miles on my Volts ICE and I've paid a total ZERO dollars in maintenance or repair. The only maintenance it has needed to date is one oil change and one tire rotation (both free under warranty).  Now due for second oil change and tire rotation - so that will cost like what $100. In that time period, any ICE would have required several oil changes, likely one brake pad replacement, and one tune up.

      A Volt's battery is warranteed for 8 years and 100 K miles. So far there has been few battery replacements done.  At least one person has put 400k miles on his Volt's battery without noticeable degredation  (https://insideevs.com/chevy-volt-400000-miles-odometer-no-noticeable-battery-degradation/).  Best estimates right now are that without warranty coverage full battery replacement would cost $4-5K. That price will likely come down once warranties expire and there is a competitive market for replacements.  A typical modern car transmission or engine rebuild or replacement would cost a similar amount BTW.

      Look at the recommended maintenance schedule on a Volt vs any ICE vehicle. Unless your are driving your VOLT ICE mode only  - you only need an oil change every 3 years, you will not need a brake service or ICE tune up  for a long time.   A pure EV of course would never need a oil change or a tune up.

      BTW - see my edit above. I f'd up my first pass. (I've saved $4k in fuel on my volt in 4 years not 1 year.  :palm:)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 20, 2018, 07:39:39 pm
      No, you haven't shown the math.  Your argument was "Your EV" vs "Extremely inexpensive gasoline vehicle".
      No, I compared an equivalent gasoline vehicle to compare apples with apples. The Ford Focus is targeted at the same audience as the VW Golf and thus lives in the same price range and has similar abilities. You are just proving my point that you seek justification for your purchase and therefore choose to ignore/warp the numbers.

      Let me just summarize what you're saying:

      "A VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't apples to apples, but a Ford Focus*1 vs VW eGolf is apples to apples".

      Sorry, but you're so wrong here.


      *1: with an engine not available in my market

      Let's do the math with a Ford Focus vs Ford Focus electric, because you appear to be obsessed with the Ford.

      Ford Focus Electric C$27,103 (after $5k grant in my jurisdiction) - we'll assume it gets the same real-world efficiency as my VW, 13.9kWh/100km = C$1.18/100km
      Ford Focus SEL C$21,342 - quoted fuel economy 7.7l/100km @ 1.459 = C$11.23/100km

      $0.1050/km cheaper for the electric
      $5,761 price difference
      ... 54,866km until payback

      That's 3-4 years for most people.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: IanMacdonald on July 21, 2018, 08:08:30 am
      A very good point is that even if an EV meets your present range needs, that could change, leaving you with a vehicle that will probably not achieve at resale anything like the price you paid for it. Need not even be a job change, you could be told to add servicing an item 100 miles away once a week to your schedule. Employer won't understand why you can't do that, after all you agreed to use your car for business.  :-//
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 21, 2018, 08:38:52 am
      A very good point is that even if an EV meets your present range needs, that could change, leaving you with a vehicle that will probably not achieve at resale anything like the price you paid for it. Need not even be a job change, you could be told to add servicing an item 100 miles away once a week to your schedule. Employer won't understand why you can't do that, after all you agreed to use your car for business.  :-//

      Let's point out what an edge case yours is;

      By the  same logic you should buy the largest vehicle on the road, because at some point you might be expected to carry a lot of cargo.

      However, back in the  world of reality, the gal suddenly getting a 200mi run weekly, would be jumping for joy. In your jurisdiction (UK) the general rate for expensing your own vehicle per mile (per the tax dept https://www.gov.uk/expenses-and-benefits-business-travel-mileage/rules-for-tax (https://www.gov.uk/expenses-and-benefits-business-travel-mileage/rules-for-tax)) is 45p/mile.  So for that 200 mile (322km) return trip you'd pocket 90 quid, for a car that would consume only  £6.45 in electricity (13.9kwH/100km * 3.22 * 14.4p/kWh); whereas your gasoline or oil burning pals would probably use 20-30l of a petroleum based fuel, or a best-case £25 worth of diesel (20l @ 1.25)

      Of course that 6.45 of electricity is based on home average usage, and most people would have overnight chargers, lowering the cost by 1/2 to 4/5 (see https://www.telegraph.co.uk/bills-and-utilities/gas-electric/new-electricity-tariff-offers-80pc-discount-night-time-usage/ (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/bills-and-utilities/gas-electric/new-electricity-tariff-offers-80pc-discount-night-time-usage/))

      The 30-60 mins in additional charging you'd need to get at your destination would be relatively easy to obtain.  I've posted a map of fast chargers in the UK, along a 100mi journey (I used for an example High Wycombe -> Bournemouth, which is right around 100mi depending on the route you pick).

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 21, 2018, 09:16:12 am
      Only that:

      1) It's not 13.9 kWh/100km but 13.9/0.85= 16.4 kWh/100km (And I doubt even that figure unless you always drive like a grandma)
      2) To recharge 3.22*16.4= 53kWh overnight @ 2..3 kW (usual max power at a normal schuko unless you turn off everything else in your house, i.e. sleep w/o A/C, dish washer off, etc.) it takes... between 18 and 26.5 hours.
      3) The cheapest Model S with that range is +63k $ after rebates, tax deductions, etc. A Skoda Superb starts at 22k €.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 21, 2018, 09:46:29 am

      By the way. According to this website the Volt is more expensive to run compared to the Ford Focus:
      https://repairpal.com/cars/chevrolet/volt/2017 (https://repairpal.com/cars/chevrolet/volt/2017)
      https://repairpal.com/cars/ford/focus/2016 (https://repairpal.com/cars/ford/focus/2016)

      A Ford Focus??  :-DD  I wouldn't be caught dead driving such a POS car. 

      And I call BS on those numbers.  They are based on assuming the need to repair several of a Volts ICE components and assume someone is driving in ICE mode the same amount of miles as the Focus.  Their website algorithm is obviously not designed for PHEVs and assumes heavy ICE use.

      In 4 years I've only put about 3k miles on my Volts ICE and I've paid a total ZERO dollars in maintenance or repair. The only maintenance it has needed to date is one oil change and one tire rotation (both free under warranty).  Now due for second oil change and tire rotation - so that will cost like what $100. In that time period, any ICE would have required several oil changes, likely one brake pad replacement, and one tune up.

      A Volt's battery is warranteed for 8 years and 100 K miles. So far there has been few battery replacements done.  At least one person has put 400k miles on his Volt's battery without noticeable degredation  (https://insideevs.com/chevy-volt-400000-miles-odometer-no-noticeable-battery-degradation/).  Best estimates right now are that without warranty coverage full battery replacement would cost $4-5K. That price will likely come down once warranties expire and there is a competitive market for replacements.  A typical modern car transmission or engine rebuild or replacement would cost a similar amount BTW.

      Look at the recommended maintenance schedule on a Volt vs any ICE vehicle. Unless your are driving your VOLT ICE mode only  - you only need an oil change every 3 years, you will not need a brake service or ICE tune up  for a long time.   A pure EV of course would never need a oil change or a tune up.

      BTW - see my edit above. I f'd up my first pass. (I've saved $4k in fuel on my volt in 4 years not 1 year.  :palm:)

      With 400K miles one has to wonder how many of those miles were on battery and how much were on the ICE?   It is quite possible the reason there is no battery wear is because most of the miles were on ICE and batteries were hardly uses.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 21, 2018, 03:17:39 pm
      It shows in the link that 141.8 K miles were battery only (full EV mode) miles. Though it’s important to note that the other miles would have also involved the battery due to the serial hybrid nature of the cars design. But fair point, i should have worded my post better.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 21, 2018, 05:43:39 pm
      Only that:

      1) It's not 13.9 kWh/100km but 13.9/0.85= 16.4 kWh/100km (And I doubt even that figure unless you always drive like a grandma)
      2) To recharge 3.22*16.4= 53kWh overnight @ 2..3 kW (usual max power at a normal schuko unless you turn off everything else in your house, i.e. sleep w/o A/C, dish washer off, etc.) it takes... between 18 and 26.5 hours.
      3) The cheapest Model S with that range is +63k $ after rebates, tax deductions, etc. A Skoda Superb starts at 22k €.

      1) I've been getting 13.9 over the lifetime of the car (admittedly it only has a few thousand km on it now).  Charging losses are nowhere near 15%, perhaps 5-6%; but then I quoted EPA/DOT quoted fuel economy for the ICE car as well, which is rarely anything like reality.
      2) I don't know anyone who has a schuko outlet, I live in North America.  I have a 240V/30A outlet I charge from (@22-24A)
      3) Are you seriously saying that a Model S and Sokda Superb are equivilent vehicles? Please compare apples to apples (like VW to VW or Ford to Ford)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 21, 2018, 06:28:22 pm
      1) I've been getting 13.9 over the lifetime of the car (admittedly it only has a few thousand km on it now).  Charging losses are nowhere near 15%, perhaps 5-6%;

      You need a wall outlet energy meter, it seems to me, or you're never going to get it.

      2) I don't know anyone who has a schuko outlet, I live in North America.  I have a 240V/30A outlet I charge from (@22-24A)

      Then for every hour of recharge @ 240*22= 5.28 kW, you will be able to get 240*22*0.85= 4.48 kWh out of the battery.

      3) Are you seriously saying that a Model S and Sokda Superb are equivilent vehicles?

      Equivalent, no. The Skoda is surely better. Have been making fine cars in the Czech Republic since 1895.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%A0koda_Auto
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 21, 2018, 07:11:51 pm
      1) I've been getting 13.9 over the lifetime of the car (admittedly it only has a few thousand km on it now).  Charging losses are nowhere near 15%, perhaps 5-6%;

      You need a wall outlet energy meter, it seems to me, or you're never going to get it.

      You need to actually own an EV or you'll never get it. ::)

      I have measured my Volt and I see about 92% efficiency (8% loss). This is by direct measurement of watts in (using a kill-a-watt meter with the 120V charger) versus watts out (reported by the Volt).  240 V charging would likely be slightly more efficient.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 21, 2018, 09:46:11 pm
      1) I've been getting 13.9 over the lifetime of the car (admittedly it only has a few thousand km on it now).  Charging losses are nowhere near 15%, perhaps 5-6%;

      You need a wall outlet energy meter, it seems to me, or you're never going to get it.

      You need to actually own an EV or you'll never get it. ::)

      I have measured my Volt and I see about 92% efficiency (8% loss). This is by direct measurement of watts in (using a kill-a-watt meter with the 120V charger) versus watts out (reported by the Volt).  240 V charging would likely be slightly more efficient.

      I was told 120v charger was slightly more efficient than the 220 volt.  Reason why, (I was told), is charging at 220 v generates more heat while charging if compared to 120v.

      Not sure if that’s true or how much less heat is created.

      The volt does have a charging cooling fan that turns on at times (roars) when charging on warm days at 220. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 21, 2018, 09:49:59 pm
      I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters. In any consumer power supply they make 300V from either 120V AC (full bridge rectified) or 220V AC (half bridge rectified). The next stage is a PFC ofcourse.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 21, 2018, 10:02:53 pm

      I was told 120v charger was slightly more efficient than the 220 volt.  Reason why, (I was told), is charging at 220 v generates more heat while charging if compared to 120v.

      The opposite is true. Higher voltage means lower amperage - means less voltage drop/ less wire losses/less heat.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 21, 2018, 10:17:59 pm
      I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters.

      Doubt all you want but Kill-a-Watt meters are pretty accurate (less so for purely inductive loads).  Specs say power accuracy is 0.5% - I've checked mine against in line and clamp meters and it's always pretty close - within 1% - 2% at worst.  This is not true for small loads of course (below 5 watts or so) - which it is not designed to measure.

      But whatever.. continue to twist and turn if you must - but the math doesn't lie. Whether EV charge efficiency is 85%, 90%, or 95%, the outcome is the same. WORST case is that after 5 - 10  years of ownership, any EV price premium you might pay (and in some cases there really isn't any) will be recouped in fuel savings. In most cases it will be much sooner.

      EDIT:  ignore reference to nctnico's post since i misread ''matters" as "meters"   :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 21, 2018, 10:36:09 pm
      I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters.
      Doubt all you want but Kill-a-Watt meters are pretty accurate (less so for purely inductive loads).  Specs say power accuracy is 0.5% - I've checked mine against in line and clamp meters and it's always pretty close - within 1% - 2% at worst.  This is not true for small loads of course (below 5 watts or so) - which it is not designed to measure.
      I don't know what you are raving on about. You didn't test 120V versus 240V charging so you don't know. I doubt it makes much difference because it makes sense to keep the DC rails after the PFC at around 450VDC.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 21, 2018, 10:38:48 pm
      I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters.
      Doubt all you want but Kill-a-Watt meters are pretty accurate (less so for purely inductive loads).  Specs say power accuracy is 0.5% - I've checked mine against in line and clamp meters and it's always pretty close - within 1% - 2% at worst.  This is not true for small loads of course (below 5 watts or so) - which it is not designed to measure.
      I don't know what you are raving on about. You didn't test 120V versus 240V charging so you don't know. I doubt it makes much difference because it makes sense to keep the DC rails after the PFC at around 450VDC.

       :palm:
      Raving?  You made a claim about the accuracy of a kill-a -watt meter and I refuted it with facts. It has nothing to do with 120 vs 240V. And nothing to do with PFC. Like all of your other fact-free assertions in this thread, it did not hold up to scrutiny. 

      EDIT: see correction below. I misread "matters" as "meters"
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 21, 2018, 10:43:29 pm
      I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters.
      Doubt all you want but Kill-a-Watt meters are pretty accurate (less so for purely inductive loads).  Specs say power accuracy is 0.5% - I've checked mine against in line and clamp meters and it's always pretty close - within 1% - 2% at worst.  This is not true for small loads of course (below 5 watts or so) - which it is not designed to measure.
      I don't know what you are raving on about. You didn't test 120V versus 240V charging so you don't know. I doubt it makes much difference because it makes sense to keep the DC rails after the PFC at around 450VDC.

       :palm:
      Raving?  You made a claim about the accuracy of a kill-a -watt meter and I refuted it with facts. It has nothing to do with 120 vs 240V. And nothing to do with PFC. Like all of your other fact-free assertions in this thread, it did not hold up to scrutiny.
      Stop posting until you are sober again. I never made any claims about the Kill-a-watt meter being inaccurate. You are mixing people up now.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 21, 2018, 10:51:05 pm
      Stop posting until you are sober again. I never made any claims about the Kill-a-watt meter being inaccurate. You are mixing people up now.

      OK - calm down.  :o  I read your post where you  said " I highly doubt the mains voltage matters"  as " I highly doubt the mains voltage meters"  If you read my response it should be clear that is  what I was responding to.  (I've added a note to bottom of posts with my error)

      Now, for the issue of 120 versus 240V charging.  I responded to Dougs post stating that 220 V would be less efficient than 120V due to more heat being generated.

      I'm not an engineer by trade but even I know that assertion is nonsense. Do you agree with his assertion that increasing the voltage will mean more heat (for a given power)?

      PFC or not, increased voltage/decreased amps generally improves power electronics efficiency. Are you disagreeing with that?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on July 22, 2018, 01:46:53 am
      1) I've been getting 13.9 over the lifetime of the car (admittedly it only has a few thousand km on it now).  Charging losses are nowhere near 15%, perhaps 5-6%;

      You need a wall outlet energy meter, it seems to me, or you're never going to get it.

      I do get it.  I post facts, you read what you want.

      And, I've many many times said I realize there are charging losses, however, those are probably similar (or less than) the difference between the EPA/DOT figures for fuel economy for ICE cars I've been quoting here, and their real world numbers.

      Oh, and I do have a wall outlet energy meter, my charger tells me exactly how much. 
      I've "filled" my car up today, I'll run the next 150km or so, and then fill again and compare the in-car usage with the distance/kWh required to top it back up.  I'm guessing well under 10% difference.

      You need to stop jumping to conclusions, and instead look at the real world numbers that the owners of BEV / PHEV vehicles are posting here
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 22, 2018, 07:52:20 am
      I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters. In any consumer power supply they make 300V from either 120V AC (full bridge rectified) or 220V AC (half bridge rectified). The next stage is a PFC ofcourse.

      Not so sure I would agree as you are not factoring in the current.  There is twice as much current at 220.  Would it not make sense more heat would be generated due to higher current and voltage?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 22, 2018, 08:09:47 am
      Stop posting until you are sober again. I never made any claims about the Kill-a-watt meter being inaccurate. You are mixing people up now.

      OK - calm down.  :o  I read your post where you  said " I highly doubt the mains voltage matters"  as " I highly doubt the mains voltage meters"  If you read my response it should be clear that is  what I was responding to.  (I've added a note to bottom of posts with my error)

      Now, for the issue of 120 versus 240V charging.  I responded to Dougs post stating that 220 V would be less efficient than 120V due to more heat being generated.

      I'm not an engineer by trade but even I know that assertion is nonsense. Do you agree with his assertion that increasing the voltage will mean more heat (for a given power)?

      PFC or not, increased voltage/decreased amps generally improves power electronics efficiency. Are you disagreeing with that?
      In theory yes but in practical electronic circuits the efficiency depends on many things. First a 120V mains supply is probably wired using thicker wires compared to a 230V/240V mains system given the same power output requirements. So I expect little difference in there.
      The same goes for the charger. Due to higher currents the designer probably used thicker wires in there as well. Another factor is that power supplies (a charger is a power supply) are usually designed towards an efficiency target. They are not made as good as possible but as economic as possible. All in all I expect very little difference between a 120V and a 230/240V charger for a Volt when it comes to efficiency.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on July 22, 2018, 08:17:21 am
      I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters. In any consumer power supply they make 300V from either 120V AC (full bridge rectified) or 220V AC (half bridge rectified). The next stage is a PFC ofcourse.

      Not so sure I would agree as you are not factoring in the current.  There is twice as much current at 220.  Would it not make sense more heat would be generated due to higher current and voltage?

      Yes more heat, but less than twice as much, so more efficient (in simple terms).

      On this ship, we have some UPSs on 240V, but the big ones are on the 440V, as charging them on 240 would be quite absurd, 120 would need a silly jumbo sized charger.
      Hell, we even have a 24V system, but them, we would need a bigger ship

      It would be even better on the 690V rail, but we can't do that as it is reserved for propulsion.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 22, 2018, 08:38:15 am
      I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters. In any consumer power supply they make 300V from either 120V AC (full bridge rectified) or 220V AC (half bridge rectified). The next stage is a PFC ofcourse.
      Not so sure I would agree as you are not factoring in the current.  There is twice as much current at 220.  Would it not make sense more heat would be generated due to higher current and voltage?

      Sorry, I'm lost. P=I*V, what am I missing?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 22, 2018, 10:35:51 am
      You need to stop jumping to conclusions, and instead look at the real world numbers that the owners of BEV / PHEV vehicles are posting here

      Real world numbers, for you, seems to be whatever the car tells you.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 22, 2018, 06:08:00 pm
      Sorry, I'm lost. P=I*V, what am I missing?

      Nothing. Doug is.

      All this is OT though really. I’m sure that EV charging efficiency has some range, depending on the supply charger, the EV’s on board charger, charge cord gauge and length, etc, etc.  A range of 85 - 95% is probably reasonable.  That’s really pretty good.

      In the end it makes little difference to the bottom line - which is that “payback” on any price premium (if there even is one) for any BEV or PHEV is going to at worst take 5-10 years depending on miles driven, gasoline/diesel vs electricity prices, etc.  And in many cases payback will be nil or occur in just a couple of years.

      And of course cost is just one of many considerations. Some may try to deny it but we ALL make choices in our purchases based on factors other tham cost alone, which is why very few cars on the road are the cheapest most basic needed just to move people from A to B.

      The transition to EVs is occurring whether some like it or not. When they will compromise a majority of cars on the road is anyone’s guess.  I’d guess it will happen 15-20 years from now IF society as  a whole can continue to hold together (a big if IMO).

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 22, 2018, 06:36:27 pm
      The transition to EVs is occurring whether some like it or not. When they will compromise a majority of cars on the road is anyone’s guess.  I’d guess it will happen 15-20 years from now IF society as  a whole can continue to hold together (a big if IMO).
      We'll probably see a transition into electric vehicles which have a predictable usage so their batteries can be sized accordingly. Vehicles like city busses, airport shuttles, small delivery trucks can be made electric because it is easy to predict their daily mileage and size the charging infrastructure accordingly. But for general purpose cars I don't see it happen within 20 years and I wouldn't bet any money on EVs becoming the majority of the cars after that.

      The smaller vehicles like bicycles, mopeds and small trolleys are much easier to electrify and people have room to charge them at home. This will probably eat into using cars. When I built a new shed I deliberately added extra outlets for charging a moped or an electric bike.

      You are right about people buying cars for different reasons than price. The commercials of car manufacturers always seem to appeal to non-techincal feel-good stuff. And there are lots and lots of rebrands so the same car from different brands can be targeted at different people. For example: The Ford Focus I own  >:D has also been sold as a Volvo. And it is the second car we have owned that was also sold as a Volvo. Volkswagen has several brands like Audi, Seat and Skoda which have pretty much identical cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 22, 2018, 07:50:36 pm
      I strongly doubt the mains voltages matters. In any consumer power supply they make 300V from either 120V AC (full bridge rectified) or 220V AC (half bridge rectified). The next stage is a PFC ofcourse.
      Not so sure I would agree as you are not factoring in the current.  There is twice as much current at 220.  Would it not make sense more heat would be generated due to higher current and voltage?

      Sorry, I'm lost. P=I*V, what am I missing?


      You are not missing anything, you would just need to expand what you have and apply Kirchhoff law.  What’s not included in your thinking is efficiency.  Heat loss can be measured in watts.  Your P = I*V is for the entire circuit.

      I was told charging at higher voltage which reduces the charging time generates more heat and is less efficient.  When charging at a lower voltage I was is more efficient because less heat is wasted in charging.

      The way I look at it is the difference between walking and running.  Walking or running you can cover the same distance.  But with running one is trading speed for inefficiency or the production heat.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 22, 2018, 08:06:01 pm
      You know all of this talk about EV and ICE being more efficient or less efficient is really a joke when one looks at how electricty is being wasted around the world.

      Anyone looked at how much of an electrical energy waster crypto-currencies are?  They were specificly designed to due usesless computer calculations as in 3.3 × 10^21  or 3.3 sextillion every ten minutes.  Any idea how much electricty that is?  It’s just a wee bit more than all of the electricty the entire island of Ireland uses every second.  In California there is a company mining for Bitcioins....  There electricty bill is over $12,000 per month.

      Now this is just for one crypto-currency.  How many other ones are there?

      Just think about how much coal and fossil fuels are being burned just to do useless Bitcoin calculations every second.

      Crypto currencies are turning out to be an ecological nightmare for our planet.

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 22, 2018, 09:01:38 pm
      Just think about how much coal and fossil fuels are being burned just to do useless Bitcoin calculations every second.

      Crypto currencies are turning out to be an ecological nightmare for our planet.
      Off-topic but it is sad but true. However people could choose to boycot crypto-currencies so it is no longer profitable to mine them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 22, 2018, 09:38:19 pm
      There are a few cryptocurrencies that are quite energy efficient, including some that I'm still mining. My cluster uses about 20W and generates about $45/month at current difficulty. Last year, it peaked at $150/month, at which point the money obtained per energy used was about the same as driving to work in a hybrid car, even with the very unrealistic assumption that the workplace uses no energy. Thus, I hope the ones criticizing my mining cluster for its energy use are the ones who walk or bicycle (or telecommute) to work! (And my cluster is solar powered, so it's carbon neutral.)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 23, 2018, 05:05:43 am
      There are a few cryptocurrencies that are quite energy efficient, including some that I'm still mining. My cluster uses about 20W and generates about $45/month at current difficulty. Last year, it peaked at $150/month, at which point the money obtained per energy used was about the same as driving to work in a hybrid car, even with the very unrealistic assumption that the workplace uses no energy. Thus, I hope the ones criticizing my mining cluster for its energy use are the ones who walk or bicycle (or telecommute) to work! (And my cluster is solar powered, so it's carbon neutral.)

      Which ones are energy efficient?  Can’t be one’s with decentralized DBs.

      How is it solar is one can claim solar powered devices are carbon neutral?  What about the energy to make mine the silicon, aluminum as well as the energy to produce the panel and then transport it to your location?  Don’t see how that’s carbon neutral.

      And for now let’s leave out how carbon un-neutral recycling solar panels are.

       

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 23, 2018, 05:16:11 am
      A bit off topic, but this is the BS marketing companies have come up up with.

      I was looking in a department store for tea kettle.  On the box3s for several of the tea kettles it states save up to 66% in energy.  Okay so how is it one tea kettle can save up to 66% when boilining water?

      The magic of the 66&% energy saving is.....  here’s the very fine print.  One saves 66% in energy if one boils one cup of water instead of a liter.  Well duh, that would apply to any tea kettle.  Go to love the people who come up with this BS.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 23, 2018, 09:12:27 am
      Tesla desperately needs money.
      The last 5 years they never ever made any profit, till now investors have had high hopes it all would go well.

      Today an article in the WSJ1 states that Tesla asked their suppliers to give back a substantial part of their profits of the last two years to Tesla,
      as an investment for future business  :wtf:
      Tesla responded it was asking for discounts for future products but that was not what was in the memo apparently.

      I guess they need to start making profit fast, eg the investment sources are drying up ?

      1 https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-asks-suppliers-for-cash-back-to-help-turn-a-profit-1532301091 (https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-asks-suppliers-for-cash-back-to-help-turn-a-profit-1532301091)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 23, 2018, 12:50:58 pm
      Which ones are energy efficient?  Can’t be one’s with decentralized DBs.
      Mostly the obscure ones. One example that used to be that way was earnhoney, but then it became somewhat less obscure and the difficulty went up dramatically. Also Perk, until it crashed.
      A bit off topic, but this is the BS marketing companies have come up up with.

      I was looking in a department store for tea kettle.  On the box3s for several of the tea kettles it states save up to 66% in energy.  Okay so how is it one tea kettle can save up to 66% when boilining water?

      The magic of the 66&% energy saving is.....  here’s the very fine print.  One saves 66% in energy if one boils one cup of water instead of a liter.  Well duh, that would apply to any tea kettle.  Go to love the people who come up with this BS.
      Some legitimate ways to make it more efficient would be to insulate the container better and use a Peltier heat pump for the first stage of heating.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on July 23, 2018, 01:08:15 pm
      I was told charging at higher voltage which reduces the charging time generates more heat and is less efficient.  When charging at a lower voltage I was is more efficient because less heat is wasted in charging.

      And that's right. Recharging at 1/2C the losses are much less than at say 2C (and also, the battery will last longer), I²R losses are 16 times less, for example.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on July 23, 2018, 03:10:32 pm
      You can always use 240V and select a slower charge rate. But I expect the losses to be minimal until you get well into really fast charging. (Someone in the Nissan Leaf community probably already tried it and documented what charge rates are the most efficient.)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 23, 2018, 03:56:01 pm
      I was told charging at higher voltage which reduces the charging time generates more heat and is less efficient.  When charging at a lower voltage I was is more efficient because less heat is wasted in charging.

      And that's right. Recharging at 1/2C the losses are much less than at say 2C (and also, the battery will last longer), I²R losses are 16 times less, for example.

      But you’re talking about power. Doug was only referring to voltage which is just plain wrong. For a given power, increased voltage = decreased amps (P=I*V). And all else being equal, increased amps=increased losses.

      Of course in the real world, it depends on whether you’re comparing different chargers,  wire gauges, etc.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on July 23, 2018, 04:09:34 pm
      Tesla desperately needs money.
      The last 5 years they never ever made any profit, till now investors have had high hopes it all would go well.

      Tesla’s ability to thrive as a large independent auto maker has always depended on the Model 3.  They’re learning that production of autos on a massively large scale is not so easy. 

      They’ve achieved some remarkable things with the Model S and X - designing, building, marketing and selling a completely new kind of car in the USA - threatening the “big 3” US automakers- something that has never been done here before.

      If the Model 3 fails, Tesla will not go away - but Musk will likely loose control as they are either acquired by another company or are forced to file Chapter 11.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on July 23, 2018, 05:35:36 pm
      The magic of the 66&% energy saving is.....  here’s the very fine print.  One saves 66% in energy if one boils one cup of water instead of a liter.  Well duh, that would apply to any tea kettle.  Go to love the people who come up with this BS.
      On the other hand, I think people who have single cup boiling water dispensers will on average save some power (ie. press a button, butter some toast and it will fill one mug with boiling water, at least that's about the speed at 3kW). Not that it's significant, but they are very convenient.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 23, 2018, 05:40:01 pm
      Tesla desperately needs money.
      The last 5 years they never ever made any profit, till now investors have had high hopes it all would go well.

      Tesla’s ability to thrive as a large independent auto maker has always depended on the Model 3.  They’re learning that production of autos on a massively large scale is not so easy. 

      They’ve achieved some remarkable things with the Model S and X - designing, building, marketing and selling a completely new kind of car in the USA - threatening the “big 3” US automakers- something that has never been done here before.

      If the Model 3 fails, Tesla will not go away - but Musk will likely loose control as they are either acquired by another company or are forced to file Chapter 11.
      True, I am also quite sure that if Tesla did not start the EV hype other conventional carmanufacturers were not in a hurry to develop their own cars. They were quite comfortable selling their poluting diesel cars and had just invested billions in its development. In that sense Tesla is already a succes in bringing EV manufacturing forward 5 to 10 years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on July 23, 2018, 06:51:02 pm
      They might have delayed the development of new battery chemistries though.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 23, 2018, 08:48:33 pm
      They might have delayed the development of new battery chemistries though.
      Interesting, how so?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 23, 2018, 09:12:15 pm
      They might have delayed the development of new battery chemistries though.
      Interesting, how so?
      By creating a market for the current generation of Li-ion batteries. This made it unnecessary to invest in battery technology which is truly useful for electric vehicles on a large scale AND did cause more investments in Li-ion batteries which need to pay for themselves first.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on July 23, 2018, 09:27:09 pm
      But AFAIK there is no viable alternative to invest in and have a product within two years, or is there?
      All the interesting new Research is in the laboratory phase it can take years even a decade before mass production, or what am I missing?
      Most promising what I heard is the solid state battery but still very expensive and not mass producable.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 23, 2018, 09:55:00 pm
      But AFAIK there is no viable alternative to invest in and have a product within two years, or is there?
      All the interesting new Research is in the laboratory phase it can take years even a decade before mass production, or what am I missing?
      Most promising what I heard is the solid state battery but still very expensive and not mass producable.
      Not long ago there was a burst of press reports about Toyota being very close to mass production with solid state batteries. Toyota quickly corrected this, and said 2030 looks like a reasonable date. It took years to polish lithium batteries to be as safe and consistent as they are today (apart from the odd screw up, like the Samsung Note 7). Solid state batteries haven't even started down that polishing path yet.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 23, 2018, 10:11:47 pm
      Hope all of you realize Elon the loan of over a billion dollars Elon got for free for years.  (Wish I could do the same.)  Remember he required everyone who wanted to order an M3 give him a cash deposit. - That was Brilliant!  And now he's asking for a cash back from suppliers.

      Reports are saying 24% of the Model 3s orders  have been canceled by customers.

      End of Tesla motors?  Similar thing happend with Nikola Tesla towards the end of his life...  Nikola was big on talk and was fialing to deliver.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on July 23, 2018, 10:16:40 pm
      But AFAIK there is no viable alternative to invest in and have a product within two years, or is there?
      I like electrically+mechanically rechargeable zinc air batteries. They have a couple problems such as low round trip efficiency due to large voltage drop of the air cathode (they're working on it), dendrites with electrical charging (a solved problem, simply use mechanical wipers), etc. I have hope that with sufficient investment those could be solved.

      With mechanical recharging it could give a drop in replacement for fossil fuels (including for the many who can't effectively recharge EVs).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 23, 2018, 11:07:04 pm
      But AFAIK there is no viable alternative to invest in and have a product within two years, or is there?
      All the interesting new Research is in the laboratory phase it can take years even a decade before mass production, or what am I missing?
      Most promising what I heard is the solid state battery but still very expensive and not mass producable.
      Not long ago there was a burst of press reports about Toyota being very close to mass production with solid state batteries. Toyota quickly corrected this, and said 2030 looks like a reasonable date. It took years to polish lithium batteries to be as safe and consistent as they are today (apart from the odd screw up, like the Samsung Note 7). Solid state batteries haven't even started down that polishing path yet.
      The inventor is less pessimistic but he doesn't have that long:
      https://about.bnef.com/blog/goodenough-making-progress-solid-state-batteries-qa/ (https://about.bnef.com/blog/goodenough-making-progress-solid-state-batteries-qa/)

      There is also an interesting remark from him in this interview:
      Elon Musk got to get beyond the liquid electrolyte. He can’t do it with a lithium-ion battery. He can make hybrid cars at high cost but, he can’t get to what will compete with the internal combustion engine.

      The 'hybrid cars' part is obviously wrong (should read 'electric cars') but other than that it is also what the other car manufacturers are saying.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on July 23, 2018, 11:24:40 pm
      Quote
      Quote
      Not long ago there was a burst of press reports about Toyota being very close to mass production with solid state batteries. Toyota quickly corrected this, and said 2030 looks like a reasonable date. It took years to polish lithium batteries to be as safe and consistent as they are today (apart from the odd screw up, like the Samsung Note 7). Solid state batteries haven't even started down that polishing path yet.
      The inventor is less pessimistic but he doesn't have that long:
      https://about.bnef.com/blog/goodenough-making-progress-solid-state-batteries-qa/ (https://about.bnef.com/blog/goodenough-making-progress-solid-state-batteries-qa/)
      I don't see any conflict between what he says and what Toyota say. He suggests someone could have a good product on the market in 3 to 5 years. Getting modest volumes of a not-especially cheap product out the door, serving markets that value the qualities of a solid state battery fulfill his claim, and get a market kickstarted. That's far from Toyota's need for high volume production plants up and running, and the product being highly cost optimised. It takes several years to find a sight, get planning approval, and actually get a large new production facility up and running, and a developer isn't going to start that process until the product is looking pretty solid.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 24, 2018, 12:46:42 am
      What ever happened cars running on fuel cells or cars powered by hydrogen?  They were all the rage 10 years ago.  A small part of Apple's new campus was suppose to be powered by fuel cells.  Anyone know what happened?

      Seems to me fuel cells would be perfect for hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars.  So why aren't we seeing them?


      I'm thinking these new batteries that are trying to be developed are like fuel cells.  Lots of hype, but the pesky laws of physics just keep getting in the way. 

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on July 24, 2018, 02:10:21 am
      Every chemical storage medium used with fuel cells has large round trip losses if you start from electricity, hydrogen is also awkward to store. To get something easy to store you're looking at ammonia or propane. Ammonia is the simplest to generate, but the more tanker trucks you put on the road, the more accidents you will have and large ammonia spills are deadly.

      PS. data centres are starting to use natural gas based fuel cells though, simply because the price and reliability is right ... not renewable, but can be economical.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on July 24, 2018, 02:57:47 am
      Anyone know what they are doing in Germany with a combined heat, hot water and power generator?

      https://youtu.be/wtDbfV5dsNs?t=6m14s


      Are these in common use and they "Americans' say in the video?  Or is this a high end more one of a kind installation?



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on July 24, 2018, 08:23:19 am
      Anyone know what they are doing in Germany with a combined heat, hot water and power generator?

      https://youtu.be/wtDbfV5dsNs?t=6m14s
      It can be economical but you have to do this on a larger scale. Over here these systems can be found in large buildings and some cities have a hot water-grid for heating and hot water. The source of the hot water is a power plant.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 01, 2018, 03:09:08 am
      At this point, this thread is just a dumpster into which DougSpindler throws his baseless claims and ridiculously ignorant beliefs after doing a grand total of zero research on the relevant subjects. I am formally abandoning it. Sorry, Doug!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 01, 2018, 04:13:06 am
      At this point, this thread is just a dumpster into which DougSpindler throws his baseless claims and ridiculously ignorant beliefs after doing a grand total of zero research on the relevant subjects. I am formally abandoning it. Sorry, Doug!

      Don't be sorry support your claim with facts.  What are my ignorant beliefs?
      Have I not provided links to reputable sources.  I believe I have made it clear when I am using my own empirical evidence or if I am not sure of something.

      What evidence can you present to support your claim I have done a grand total of zero research on the relevant subjects?
        I will disagree until you provide creidtble evidnece to the contrary.

      Looking forward to your post.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 01, 2018, 07:16:52 am
      creidtble evidnece
      Say what ?  :)

      This topic is the same on the other forum, some EV owners are very enthousiastic about their car even when they have to charge every 150 miles or have to walk, had to pay double the price of an ICE that has twice the room and four times the range and I can go on.
      Hybrids are a different story.
      But pure EV owners: fine for them but they are a minority of carowners trying to convince others to also buy one in a manner that resembles preachers trying to gain souls but forgetting that EVs are ludicrous expensive have very low range, can't pull a caravan or trailer and in Europe at least most countries have a terrible infrastructure where again you have to own local accounts to be able to use the charging poles.
      It will change some time yes, but unless there are major breakthroughs in battery tech and this tech is product ready (mostly a 10 year period) for most people an EV is not a viable option for the coming 5 years even a decade. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 01, 2018, 04:55:38 pm
      What you are saying today about battery technology toady is exactly what was being said 100 years ago.  In 100 years of battery powered vehicles not much has changed.  Maybe it's time to look at steam power and ECE.  Just over 100 years ago the leading and proven technology was stem power for well over 100 years.  Maybe it's time to bring steam power back.  How about a solar steam powered ECE using steam?

      Seriously at this time our only chicices are human, fossil fuel or nucelar power for vehicles.  Yes EVs are nice, but if in 100 years we haven't made major improvements on the batterey technoilgy don't expect somehting soon.

      What's intereting is the range of EV cars today is not that much different than those of 100 years ago is not that much different.  (Some exceptioons.)


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on August 01, 2018, 05:10:36 pm
      creidtble evidnece
      Say what ?  :)

      This topic is the same on the other forum, some EV owners are very enthousiastic about their car even when they have to charge every 150 miles or have to walk, had to pay double the price of an ICE that has twice the room and four times the range and I can go on.
      Hybrids are a different story.
      But pure EV owners: fine for them but they are a minority of carowners trying to convince others to also buy one in a manner that resembles preachers trying to gain souls but forgetting that EVs are ludicrous expensive have very low range, can't pull a caravan or trailer and in Europe at least most countries have a terrible infrastructure where again you have to own local accounts to be able to use the charging poles.
      It will change some time yes, but unless there are major breakthroughs in battery tech and this tech is product ready (mostly a 10 year period) for most people an EV is not a viable option for the coming 5 years even a decade.

      Wow, do you work for Royal Dutch Shell ?  Despite my math showing you the numbers to be very effective, you keep up these wild claims that EV is not a viable option.

      Let's look at some of your claims

      It goes on and on.  Between you and DougSpindler, you simply refuse to acknowledge the direction the world is going, and appear to have your own agenda.

      On behalf of the people who want to discuss electric cars, I'm going to suggest that you and Doug go and start your own "Why Electric Cars Suck" thread, and leave this thread for serious, fact-based, discussion for the owners, and potential owners of electric cars.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 01, 2018, 06:02:21 pm
      creidtble evidnece
      Say what ?  :)

      This topic is the same on the other forum, some EV owners are very enthousiastic about their car even when they have to charge every 150 miles or have to walk, had to pay double the price of an ICE that has twice the room and four times the range and I can go on.
      Hybrids are a different story.
      But pure EV owners: fine for them but they are a minority of carowners trying to convince others to also buy one in a manner that resembles preachers trying to gain souls but forgetting that EVs are ludicrous expensive have very low range, can't pull a caravan or trailer and in Europe at least most countries have a terrible infrastructure where again you have to own local accounts to be able to use the charging poles.
      It will change some time yes, but unless there are major breakthroughs in battery tech and this tech is product ready (mostly a 10 year period) for most people an EV is not a viable option for the coming 5 years even a decade.

      Wow, do you work for Royal Dutch Shell ?  Despite my math showing you the numbers to be very effective, you keep up these wild claims that EV is not a viable option.

      Let's look at some of your claims
      • Comparing a VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't a valid comparison - you should compare an eGolf with the cheapest car on the market (this was my favourite)
      • EV cars are double the price of an ICE.  Perhaps when you're comparing a Tesla with a Yugo, but comparing like-sized/quality/trim levels, it simply isn't true. There's a small premium, paid off in 40-60,000km - again we demonstrated the math on both a VW and a Ford
      • EV cars are somehow space compromised. - My eGolf is the same size inside as any other VW Golf, which I believe is in the top selling cars of all time.

      It goes on and on.  Between you and DougSpindler, you simply refuse to acknowledge the direction the world is going, and appear to have your own agenda.

      On behalf of the people who want to discuss electric cars, I'm going to suggest that you and Doug go and start your own "Why Electric Cars Suck" thread, and leave this thread for serious, fact-based, discussion for the owners, and potential owners of electric cars.

      Dude stop making things up.  Where have I ever said electric cars suck.  Nornmally I would say you idiot I own one.  And if you read my posts you will see that I plan on buying another one.  But I won't.  Instead I will say if you read my posts you will see I own and electric car, and plan on purchaing another one.  If would continuing readinig my posts you will see I have said over and over EV cars are great.

      But then they are not for everyone and horrible for many applications.

      If you are going to bash people at least get your facts stright.

      Let me say it again.  EVs are wondering for a few applications.  For other applicatons they suck.

      Dude do you even own an EV?  Do you have a life?  Do you have a wife and kids?  Go on vacations with your car?  Or are you a hermit.  And just drive to work and home every day and not enjoy life?

      This is a fourm where people are to exchage ideas and learn from one another.   Stop bashing people and discuss what they have to say.  You might learn somehting.








      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 01, 2018, 08:58:09 pm
      Wow, do you work for Royal Dutch Shell ?  Despite my math showing you the numbers to be very effective, you keep up these wild claims that EV is not a viable option.

      Let's look at some of your claims
      • Comparing a VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't a valid comparison - you should compare an eGolf with the cheapest car on the market (this was my favourite)
      • EV cars are double the price of an ICE.  Perhaps when you're comparing a Tesla with a Yugo, but comparing like-sized/quality/trim levels, it simply isn't true. There's a small premium, paid off in 40-60,000km - again we demonstrated the math on both a VW and a Ford
      • EV cars are somehow space compromised. - My eGolf is the same size inside as any other VW Golf, which I believe is in the top selling cars of all time.

      It goes on and on.  Between you and DougSpindler, you simply refuse to acknowledge the direction the world is going, and appear to have your own agenda.

      On behalf of the people who want to discuss electric cars, I'm going to suggest that you and Doug go and start your own "Why Electric Cars Suck" thread, and leave this thread for serious, fact-based, discussion for the owners, and potential owners of electric cars.
      I think you mess me up with someone else but the points for our country seem right.
      A Tesla S costs over €100k three times a very decent ice stationwagon like a VW Golf.
      I am talking about EVs not hybrids something you seem to mess up all the times.
      Tesla never made a $ profit, today they anounced a $5 billion investment in a China factory but they don't have the money so they want to raise capital in China.
      Other car manufacturers like VW newest Golf8 coming out next year will have a small perhaps solid state battery to support the start stop system only, thats it no electric plan for this generation that lasts 6-8 years but they do shut down two of the four cylinders while driving, and I can go on.
      Perhaps your government in Canada gives you half the money an EV costs to make it at least affordable but here it is only for business owners they can deduct the tax.
      In Norway it seems to become a success but ask why, because the government throws huge amounts of money at it and due to their natural water reservoirs in the mountains they have almost free electricity. Good for them and I wish it was viable in other countries but I don't see it.
      Here in Holland you goto the city park your car for two hours while charging and you get 20-30% load resulting in a 35 mile radius, two hours! That is if it was an ice the fuelpump would do one litre of fuel per hour. So wake up from your future utopia and get real talk to the middle class families that are the majority of car owners that want to go 1000km drive to go to holiday and drive 75km each day for work and none of them owns an EV or is going to buy an EV that is your reality.
      Perhaps in 5-10 years it will be different but lots has to change.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 01, 2018, 10:04:34 pm
      Wow, do you work for Royal Dutch Shell ?  Despite my math showing you the numbers to be very effective, you keep up these wild claims that EV is not a viable option.

      Let's look at some of your claims
      • Comparing a VW Golf vs VW eGolf isn't a valid comparison - you should compare an eGolf with the cheapest car on the market (this was my favourite)
      • EV cars are double the price of an ICE.  Perhaps when you're comparing a Tesla with a Yugo, but comparing like-sized/quality/trim levels, it simply isn't true. There's a small premium, paid off in 40-60,000km - again we demonstrated the math on both a VW and a Ford
      • EV cars are somehow space compromised. - My eGolf is the same size inside as any other VW Golf, which I believe is in the top selling cars of all time.

      It goes on and on.  Between you and DougSpindler, you simply refuse to acknowledge the direction the world is going, and appear to have your own agenda.

      On behalf of the people who want to discuss electric cars, I'm going to suggest that you and Doug go and start your own "Why Electric Cars Suck" thread, and leave this thread for serious, fact-based, discussion for the owners, and potential owners of electric cars.
      I think you mess me up with someone else but the points for our country seem right.
      A Tesla S costs over €100k three times a very decent ice stationwagon like a VW Golf.
      I am talking about EVs not hybrids something you seem to mess up all the times.
      Tesla never made a $ profit, today they anounced a $5 billion investment in a China factory but they don't have the money so they want to raise capital in China.
      Other car manufacturers like VW newest Golf8 coming out next year will have a small perhaps solid state battery to support the start stop system only, thats it no electric plan for this generation that lasts 6-8 years but they do shut down two of the four cylinders while driving, and I can go on.
      Perhaps your government in Canada gives you half the money an EV costs to make it at least affordable but here it is only for business owners they can deduct the tax.
      In Norway it seems to become a success but ask why, because the government throws huge amounts of money at it and due to their natural water reservoirs in the mountains they have almost free electricity. Good for them and I wish it was viable in other countries but I don't see it.
      Here in Holland you goto the city park your car for two hours while charging and you get 20-30% load resulting in a 35 mile radius, two hours! That is if it was an ice the fuelpump would do one litre of fuel per hour. So wake up from your future utopia and get real talk to the middle class families that are the majority of car owners that want to go 1000km drive to go to holiday and drive 75km each day for work and none of them owns an EV or is going to buy an EV that is your reality.
      Perhaps in 5-10 years it will be different but lots has to change.

      Well stated. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on August 01, 2018, 11:01:24 pm
      The sign is clear: plug in hybrids would be the stopgap solution with most of the advantages of an EV but without the limited range problem that seems to be a showstopper for some.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 02, 2018, 05:25:16 am
      The sign is clear: plug in hybrids would be the stopgap solution with most of the advantages of an EV but without the limited range problem that seems to be a showstopper for some.
      It seems Hydrogen is not out of the race yet. Mercedes is about to release a new model:
      https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-benz-glc-f-cell-2018-first-ride (https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-benz-glc-f-cell-2018-first-ride)
      And in the Netherlands they are going to add 11 more hydrogen fuel stations in the next year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 02, 2018, 06:58:26 am
      The sign is clear: plug in hybrids would be the stopgap solution with most of the advantages of an EV but without the limited range problem that seems to be a showstopper for some.
      Not some , most people I talked to even EV owners complain about it.
      The usuable range is on average 250km with most models that averages a gastank of 15 litres.
      After which with a supercharger it will take you 20 minutes to get 80% back.

      For city trips and work (if you live within range) that is a good solution IF you can charge at home. In cities this is still an issue unless you want to spent 20 minutes before or after work recharging each day.
      For all the other trafic it is a big hassle.
      Experiences I heard were a family with 1 kid going to Italy in a Tesla S, having to drive 75km/hour (where the other cars are doing 140) to save batterylife, that is not only dangerous for upcoming trafic just as with trucks (where you expect it) it also ruined their holiday. Next time they are renting an ICE, so what safes that ?
      Most people having to cross borders in Europe don't want to use an EV since the chargers are not universal and the paying system isn't either.

      These are things that have to be ironed out, a range of 400-500km would make it practical, a lot of chargers with universal plugs and charging systems and payment systems are also a big hurdle. I think this will take longer than a few years but lets see. At this moment the Ford F150 gass gobbler is the most sold car globally, could not believe it but it is true. There is a big gap there.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on August 02, 2018, 09:39:05 am
      It seems Hydrogen is not out of the race yet. Mercedes is about to release a new model:
      https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-benz-glc-f-cell-2018-first-ride (https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-benz-glc-f-cell-2018-first-ride)
      And in the Netherlands they are going to add 11 more hydrogen fuel stations in the next year.
      Electricity to hydrogen is wildly inefficient.

      For the same efficiency you could just use zinc air batteries with existing technology, but the zinc air batteries can be both electrically and mechanically recharged.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 02, 2018, 12:15:34 pm
      It seems Hydrogen is not out of the race yet. Mercedes is about to release a new model:
      https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-benz-glc-f-cell-2018-first-ride (https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-benz-glc-f-cell-2018-first-ride)
      And in the Netherlands they are going to add 11 more hydrogen fuel stations in the next year.
      Electricity to hydrogen is wildly inefficient.

      For the same efficiency you could just use zinc air batteries with existing technology, but the zinc air batteries can be both electrically and mechanically recharged.
      Zinc air is old technology, but it still has only a small market niche. I wonder why? Could it possibly have some issues beneath the attractive looking headline?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 02, 2018, 12:16:33 pm
      It seems Hydrogen is not out of the race yet. Mercedes is about to release a new model:
      https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-benz-glc-f-cell-2018-first-ride (https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-benz-glc-f-cell-2018-first-ride)
      And in the Netherlands they are going to add 11 more hydrogen fuel stations in the next year.
      Electricity to hydrogen is wildly inefficient.
      The Wikipedia article claims that efficiencies around 90% can be achieved. Even at 70 or 80 percent it isn't inefficient and probably more economically viable compared to storing electricity in batteries. For starters a Hydrogen tank doesn't wear so much as a battery.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 02, 2018, 12:25:40 pm
      It seems Hydrogen is not out of the race yet. Mercedes is about to release a new model:
      https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-benz-glc-f-cell-2018-first-ride (https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/mercedes-benz-glc-f-cell-2018-first-ride)
      And in the Netherlands they are going to add 11 more hydrogen fuel stations in the next year.
      Electricity to hydrogen is wildly inefficient.
      The Wikipedia article claims that efficiencies around 90% can be achieved. Even at 70 or 80 percent it isn't inefficient and probably more economically viable compared to storing electricity in batteries. For starters a Hydrogen tank doesn't wear so much as a battery.
      Most articles on hydrogen from electricity talk of 70% to 80% efficiency. Which Wikipedia page quotes 90%, and for what technology?

      70% to 80% for half the cycle, and a similar efficiency for the other half of the cycle, seems worse than current battery technology. Storage isn't that great, either. Hydrogen has a nasty habit of leaking away, unless some very effective sealing is used. Something like ethanol with similar poor efficiencies might be attractive, as its so easy to store and transfer it quickly.

      I am unclear why you think a hydrogen tank will wear less than a battery. The tank itself might last, but the seals and venting system require regular maintenance. Safe venting can be a big issue with hydrogen, and not venting doesn't appear to be an option for consumer storage. You will lose half your hydrogen to venting every week, so there is a lot of it.

      Most hydrogen cars released to date seem not to have been serious attempts to create a market. Look at where they have been shipped to, and you see some kind of compliance requirements driving their existence.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 02, 2018, 01:09:59 pm
      The Wikipedia article claims that efficiencies around 90% can be achieved. Even at 70 or 80 percent it isn't inefficient and probably more economically viable compared to storing electricity in batteries. For starters a Hydrogen tank doesn't wear so much as a battery.
      I hope this will never be done in households, there are two products that get generated from H2O 1/2-O2 and H2 the combination of both is extremely explosive, remember the Graf Zeppelin ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 02, 2018, 01:14:44 pm
      @Coppice: In the end the economics matter and not the efficiency. If efficiency mattered then all our computers would have 99.5% efficient power supplies.

      @Kjelt: the Hindenberg didn't catch fire due to H2 but due to the extremely flammable material they used for the outer layer. A similar goof-up like the Grenfell tower and the accident with the Apollo capsule catching fire (the latter due to the pure O2 atmosphere).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 02, 2018, 01:43:01 pm
      @Coppice: In the end the economics matter and not the efficiency. If efficiency mattered then all our computers would have 99.5% efficient power supplies.
      If you want to duck the issues, and not address them, why not keep your own counsel, rather than offer a meaningless response?

      If you want a rational discussion why not take a page like https://phys.org/news/2006-12-hydrogen-economy-doesnt.html and critique it? Its from 2006, so some things may have changed, and it may contain some inaccurate figures. It does, however, look at the whole supply chain, which most articles avoid.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 02, 2018, 02:10:05 pm
      @Kjelt: the Hindenberg didn't catch fire due to H2 but due to the extremely flammable material they used for the outer layer. A similar goof-up like the Grenfell tower and the accident with the Apollo capsule catching fire (the latter due to the pure O2 atmosphere).
      No that is just a hypothesis, the hydrogen-spark hypothesis is still the most widely official accepted theory.
      Quote
      The theory that hydrogen was ignited by a static spark is the most widely accepted theory as determined by the official crash investigations.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_disaster#Fire's_initial_fuel

      But in cars it could be relatively safe I haven't seen the analysis, or accident reports statistics so can't judge, the liquid gas tanks where also pretty safe.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on August 02, 2018, 02:34:23 pm
      Could it possibly have some issues beneath the attractive looking headline?

      It couldn't ride the coat tails of battery development for mass market consumer devices (for which they aren't suited, except for a high energy density low power density non rechargeable niche) and setting up a distribution network for physical recharging them takes a lot of investment. In the bootstrapping phase lithium ion makes a lot more sense, if you can't physically recharge it all you're left with is the higher cost of electrical recharging.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 02, 2018, 06:25:23 pm
      @Coppice: In the end the economics matter and not the efficiency. If efficiency mattered then all our computers would have 99.5% efficient power supplies.
      If you want to duck the issues, and not address them, why not keep your own counsel, rather than offer a meaningless response?

      If you want a rational discussion why not take a page like https://phys.org/news/2006-12-hydrogen-economy-doesnt.html and critique it? Its from 2006, so some things may have changed, and it may contain some inaccurate figures. It does, however, look at the whole supply chain, which most articles avoid.
      I don't need to duck anything. The article only looks at efficiency and totally ignores the economics. In the real world the choosen solution will be driven by economics and not efficiency. The biggest challenge for electricity from solar and wind is storage and a significant part of the price per kWh will probably be driven by the storage costs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 02, 2018, 09:29:47 pm
      @Coppice: In the end the economics matter and not the efficiency. If efficiency mattered then all our computers would have 99.5% efficient power supplies.
      If you want to duck the issues, and not address them, why not keep your own counsel, rather than offer a meaningless response?

      If you want a rational discussion why not take a page like https://phys.org/news/2006-12-hydrogen-economy-doesnt.html and critique it? Its from 2006, so some things may have changed, and it may contain some inaccurate figures. It does, however, look at the whole supply chain, which most articles avoid.
      I don't need to duck anything. The article only looks at efficiency and totally ignores the economics. In the real world the choosen solution will be driven by economics and not efficiency. The biggest challenge for electricity from solar and wind is storage and a significant part of the price per kWh will probably be driven by the storage costs.
      Only a fool would disagree that effective storage is the key to the viability of most kinds of renewable energy, and that economics is always the bottom line when choosing solutions. Doubling the size of the renewable energy systems needed, plus the high maintenance costs of electrolysis systems, and all the other complexities of handling and storing hydrogen, are serious economic barriers for hydrogen to overcome, though. A hydrogen powered car might have a longer range than an electric one, with current technology. However a hydrogen car has the opposite problem. Its really awful for the short daily journeys where something like a Nissan Leaf does a fine job, because of venting loses, unless you keep the tank nearly empty, and refill often. A cost effect way to turn renewably sourced electricity into an easy to store fuel, like ethanol, would be a game changer. Hydrogen just seems to swap one set of problems for another.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 02, 2018, 09:50:21 pm
      Still you provide no actual numbers on whether it is feasible or not. Meanwhile more Hydrogen fueling stations are being installed so at least for some people the numbers add up to a good solution. I just :popcorn: and see where it goes.

      But yes, ethanol (as in third generation bio-fuel) is most probably the way forward.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on August 03, 2018, 12:03:29 am
      What you are saying today about battery technology toady is exactly what was being said 100 years ago.  In 100 years of battery powered vehicles not much has changed.  Maybe it's time to look at steam power and ECE.  Just over 100 years ago the leading and proven technology was stem power for well over 100 years.  Maybe it's time to bring steam power back.  How about a solar steam powered ECE using steam?

      Seriously at this time our only chicices are human, fossil fuel or nucelar power for vehicles.  Yes EVs are nice, but if in 100 years we haven't made major improvements on the batterey technoilgy don't expect somehting soon.

      What's intereting is the range of EV cars today is not that much different than those of 100 years ago is not that much different.  (Some exceptioons.)

      That's interesting.  Do you have some data on 100 year old electric cars in terms of range and speed?

      Thanks!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 03, 2018, 12:15:28 am
      Take a look at Jay Leno's garage.  He has a Baker EV car.  These are his words, not mine.

      You can also read about the Baker EV cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on August 03, 2018, 03:27:36 am
      Take a look at Jay Leno's garage.  He has a Baker EV car.  These are his words, not mine.

      You can also read about the Baker EV cars.

      Quote
      Overview
              The Baker years of 1900 to 1915 spanned the range when individual electric cars were popular. Because 1,000 lbs of batteries could only deliver 2-3 kw for 2-3 hours, the hp rating of these cars was low (2-4 hp) and their range was limited. Prior to 1900 was the era of commercial electric vehicles: taxis and trucks, many made by Electric Vehicle Company of Hartford Conn, which sold cars under the brand name Columbia. After 1915 there was a short lived period of a few high power, high performance electric drive cars where the battery was replaced by a combustion engine coupled to a dynamo. While this increased the available power by x10 or so, and solved the range problem too, it produced an expensive and heavy car. The most notable of these high power, electric drive cars was the Owen Magnetic, which had a unique
      electromagnetic transmission designed by Justus Entz. Walter Baker acquired the patent rights to Entz drive train in 1912 and guided the Owen Magnetic into production in 1915 where it survived until 1922.

      http://www.twinkletoesengineering.info/wells_auto_museum/baker_electric_technology.htm#Overview (http://www.twinkletoesengineering.info/wells_auto_museum/baker_electric_technology.htm#Overview)

      One ton of batteries which produce 2-3 kW for 2-3 hours.  So 4 to 9 kW-hr in 1 ton. 

      Further down in the article it says Jay Leno's 1909 baker electric would go 110 miles in 4-5 hours with modern lead-acid batteries.   

      Down further there is a comparison of modern battery to the Baker.  It has about 1/10 the energy of a modern battery.

      Quote
      Battery kwh comparison to modern electric cars
             It's interesting to compare the kwh rating of this Baker battery with a modern electric car battert. The baker kwh rating (ideally) is 7.56 kwh = (21A x 6hr x 60V). The electric car with the largest capacity battery (as I write) is the Tesla model S, which has an 85 kwh battery. A more modest extended ranage electric car like the GM Volt has a 16 kwh battery. So the Baker's 1,000 lb (roughly) lead acid batteries had about 1/10th the kwh rating of the lithium ion battery which fills the floor of the Tesla Model S, or about half the kwh capacity of the more modest Volt battery.

      Interesting comparison.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 03, 2018, 07:28:08 am
      Quote
      Battery kwh comparison to modern electric cars
             It's interesting to compare the kwh rating of this Baker battery with a modern electric car battert. The baker kwh rating (ideally) is 7.56 kwh = (21A x 6hr x 60V). The electric car with the largest capacity battery (as I write) is the Tesla model S, which has an 85 kwh battery. A more modest extended ranage electric car like the GM Volt has a 16 kwh battery. So the Baker's 1,000 lb (roughly) lead acid batteries had about 1/10th the kwh rating of the lithium ion battery which fills the floor of the Tesla Model S, or about half the kwh capacity of the more modest Volt battery.
      Interesting comparison. 
      And that is what we have achieved on battery technology in 100 years  :(
      That is also why I try to temper expectations on some people that really think that in a few years we will have affordable EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
      The only EV with that mileage at this moment is the Tesla S which in the Netherlands costs between €87000 and €150000 1 depending on the model  :o

      1https://www.autowereld.com/nieuwe-autos/prijzen-specificaties/tesla/model-s-119381 (https://www.autowereld.com/nieuwe-autos/prijzen-specificaties/tesla/model-s-119381)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on August 03, 2018, 11:06:11 am
      EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
      Nope.
      That assumption is wrong.
      EVs for the masses don't need 650km range when the daily trip is <60km.
      Mass market needs proper fast charger networks, not range.
      Long trips are rare, and the fast 25min charging stops add up to much less time than the weekly time at gas stations.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 03, 2018, 11:14:00 am
      Long trips are rare, and the fast 25min charging stops add up to much less time than the weekly time at gas stations.
      Long trips are rare for some people, but a daily event for others. No one electric car is going to suit everyone's needs in an economical manner, just as no one ICE car suits everyone's needs in an economical manner.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 03, 2018, 12:40:34 pm
      EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
      Nope.
      That assumption is wrong.
      EVs for the masses don't need 650km range when the daily trip is <60km.
      Mass market needs proper fast charger networks, not range.
      Long trips are rare, and the fast 25min charging stops add up to much less time than the weekly time at gas stations.
      I can't see which country your from but in our country we do and will not have the infrastructure to support even every commuter to fast charge between 7-8am and 1700-1800 nor charge them at home, so if the charging frequency increases the adoptability of EVs will decrease. The minimum range necessary will probably be around 350-400km. Looking at a state as California that at least a few years back was unable to sustain normal mains netpower in the summer this will be an equally big challenge.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 03, 2018, 01:15:01 pm
      EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
      Nope.
      That assumption is wrong.
      No it is not and it is very easy to understand. Ask yourself why an ICE based car has a fuel tank which takes it around 800km? Why would that be? Is that some kind of arbitrary number? No, it is not. It is what the customers find acceptable. Plain and simple and there is no argueing around it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: richard.cs on August 03, 2018, 01:46:05 pm
      No it is not and it is very easy to understand. Ask yourself why an ICE based car has a fuel tank which takes it around 800km? Why would that be? Is that some kind of arbitrary number? No, it is not. It is what the customers find acceptable. Plain and simple and there is no argueing around it.

      I don't disagree that range is an issue for many (but not all) people, but there are several logical errors in directly translating ICE range to EV range:

      1)  If you take 800 km as the range that people demand in an ICE car, it does not necessarily follow that they would demand the same range in an EV. Going to a petrol station every day would be much more inconvenient than plugging in a car every night, so (for those EV users who are able to charge at home) their maximum daily range would be a more reasonable number to use. Additionally many ICEs do not get 800 km to a tank, mine gets around 230 miles / 370 km and many modern small cars are more like 500-550 km real-world miles per tank.

      2) The marginal cost of increasing the size of an ICE tank is small, manufacturer's therefore have an incentive to make it large enough to appeal to customers who want long range even if they are a small fraction of total customers. e.g. it may be the case that a majority of ICE customers would be happy with half the tank size, but the manufacturer makes it bigger at low cost to sell a few % more cars.

      3) Huge numbers of people do not fill their petrol tanks to the top, I see these people at petrol stations putting in £5 here and £10 there when they get to nearly-empty (before smart pumps there was considerable skill in making it a round-number cost), my brother's car for example is rarely over 1/4 tank. The people who do this must therefore be happy with this greatly reduced range and presumably would be perfectly fine with an EV of equivalent range.

      There are people for whom EVs are not currently and may never be a good choice. The existence of those people has no impact on the separate question of if there is a significant number of people for whom they are a practical vehicle. If you need to drive thousands of miles a day don't buy an EV, get a diesel, if you need to transport your 7 children don't buy a motorcycle, if you need to cart lumber around perhaps you shouldn't buy a Ferrari, if you want to plough a field perhaps a VW golf isn't the right tool for the job. And yet no-one argues that motorcycles or Ferraris or VW Golfs are useless vehicles suitable for no-one. I don't get the hate for EVs on this thread, if it's not the right vehicle for you don't buy one, but why argue that they are therefore unsuitable for anyone?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on August 03, 2018, 02:01:18 pm
      EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
      Nope.
      That assumption is wrong.
      No it is not and it is very easy to understand. Ask yourself why an ICE based car has a fuel tank which takes it around 800km? Why would that be? Is that some kind of arbitrary number? No, it is not. It is what the customers find acceptable. Plain and simple and there is no argueing around it.

      Average car 800 km?  That's 500 miles.  I think it's more like 300 miles or 500 km. 

      Recharging is a big problem.  How are people in apartments going to charge there car?

      Also cross country is a problem.  I drive from California to Texas from time to time.  I used the Tesla map web page to see how a trip in a model 3 would work.  Normally I stop in New Mexico for the night.  There is about 2.5 hours of charging time during the trip to New Mexico.  People say you have to stop and eat anyway.  I would get fat doing that.  One stop is Gila Bend AZ.  Not much there except wind and a hamburger.     

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on August 03, 2018, 03:20:53 pm
      The combination of short daily trips and occasional long distance driving is more or less exactly what plug in hybrids are designed for.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 03, 2018, 03:38:47 pm
      People say you have to stop and eat anyway.
      There is another problem with that: try and find a decent restaurant next to a road. I know only one in thousands of kilometers of highway across Europe.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 03, 2018, 03:47:43 pm
      I don't disagree that range is an issue for many (but not all) people, but there are several logical errors in directly translating ICE range to EV range:

      1)  If you take 800 km as the range that people demand in an ICE car, it does not necessarily follow that they would demand the same range in an EV.
      Going to a petrol station every day would be much more inconvenient than plugging in a car every night, so (for those EV users who are able to charge at home)
      their maximum daily range would be a more reasonable number to use.
      Is that why we had this wireless charging topic , because it was so easy to plug in your car every day? Not too mention those who have to find a charging spot coming home in the parkinglot,
      there is a trend of people moving to live in cities, which means apartment buildings.

      Quote
      Additionally many ICEs do not get 800 km to a tank, mine gets around 230 miles / 370 km and many modern small cars are more like 500-550 km real-world miles per tank.
      My last three cars from 1999 up to today were Opel stationwagons, with engines with the most hp so not the smallest and they did 600km , 760km and my current one does 800-1000km on a 60 litre tank.
      Perhaps a difference between the US and Europe, but indeed smaller cars have smaller tanks but I pray I never have to travel to south of France in a small car like that.

      Quote
      2) The marginal cost of increasing the size of an ICE tank is small, manufacturer's therefore have an incentive to make it large enough to appeal to customers who want long range
      even if they are a small fraction of total customers. e.g. it may be the case that a majority of ICE customers would be happy with half the tank size,
      but the manufacturer makes it bigger at low cost to sell a few % more cars.
      Agreed with the first part, not the second. Holiday travel on a black saturday as we call it here in Europe you want to drive the 1000kms and only have to wait in line at the gaspump once.
      Last year I spent 4 hours waiting in line in Luxembourg to fill up my tank, I wish I just drove further but going off the highway you are trapped.

      Quote
      3) Huge numbers of people do not fill their petrol tanks to the top, I see these people at petrol stations putting in £5 here and £10 there when they get to nearly-empty
      True but those people can't afford an EV, not even a second hand EV ;) I might be discriminating here but the last time I did that I was out of a job.
      I see some kids that have to pay themselves do this, students generally speaking the people that look at the gas pump and put in €25 instead of filling her up have money-issues.
      And then we are in Europe where you have to pay $7,50 a gallon today.

      Quote
      There are people for whom EVs are not currently and may never be a good choice.
      For some people it is a good choice I don't argue. But that is not the topic now is it?
      The topic is when does it become mainstream. Mainstream is the average of carowners.
      Look what the average car sold today is and ask why that is, you get your answer right then and there.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on August 03, 2018, 06:27:19 pm
      The combination of short daily trips and occasional long distance driving is more or less exactly what plug in hybrids are designed for.

      I agree with that.  I just bought my son a used volt.  His drive to work is short so it works great for now.  He lives at home now and can charge it at night.  But he plans to move into an apartment so I'm not sure he will be able to charge the car. 


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 03, 2018, 06:40:34 pm
      I don't disagree that range is an issue for many (but not all) people, but there are several logical errors in directly translating ICE range to EV range:

      1)  If you take 800 km as the range that people demand in an ICE car, it does not necessarily follow that they would demand the same range in an EV.
      Going to a petrol station every day would be much more inconvenient than plugging in a car every night, so (for those EV users who are able to charge at home)
      their maximum daily range would be a more reasonable number to use.
      Is that why we had this wireless charging topic , because it was so easy to plug in your car every day?

      Nonsense.  Of course there will always be people trying to introduce new technology that we will discuss here, but that's a red herring. There's wireless charging for phones too but how many people use them?. 

      Any actual EV owner (as opposed to many of those pontificating here)  will tell you that one of the best things about owning an BEV or PHEV is the convenience of "filling up" at home while you sleep.  Just as easy and convenient as plugging in your phone.

      Quote
      Not too mention those who have to find a charging spot coming home in the parkinglot,
      there is a trend of people moving to live in cities, which means apartment buildings.

      In the US, most apartment buildings have dedicated parking. Once EVs become the norm, these will have charging stations. It's really that simple.  Before autos, there were facilities for horses. Once autos became the norm, there were facilities for them.

      When will this happen?  It will be a continual process over the next 20-30 years. EV adoption rates are rising rapidly but have far to go. Public charging station installations are also rapidly rising (see figure below) I think it is likely PHEVs will become increasingly popular as a bridge until wider BEV adoption.

      The only thing that may prevent this is that if the adoption is too slow, and as the remaining oil becomes too expensive to extract - economic and social turmoil may prevent society from holding it together enough to put the necessary infrastructure in place and to provide the economic potential for wide EV adoption.  It that happens we're back to horses... :scared:

      For those  interested in actual facts  this IEA report has a lot of excellent information (https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf). First 2 figures below are from that report.  Of course based on most of the responses in this thread, facts will be ignored.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=489761;image)
      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=489767;image)

      As far as relative ranges. Here's some facts as of 2016 (source (https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-939-august-22-2016-all-electric-vehicle-ranges-can-exceed-those-some-gasoline)). Since then EV and PHEV ranges have only increased.

      (https://cleantechnica.com/files/2016/08/EV-Range.png)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 03, 2018, 07:22:28 pm
      I am on an ipad so editing is a disaster
      When will this happen?  It will be a continual process over the next 20-30 years.
      So we agree , EVs will not become mainstream anytime soon, thank you.
      Quote
      For those  interested in actual facts  this IEA report has a lot of excellent information (https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GlobalEVOutlook2017.pdf). First 2 figures below are from that report.  Of course based on most of the responses in this thread, facts will be ignored.
      That graph is total stock, which is not much compared to the global ice stock.
      Sales on evs are up so lets look at this Q1 2018 to get the best figures for ev sales since economy is hot and new evs were introduced.
      https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/)
      Look at VW thats a laughable amount, one dealer sells more VWs than that. It gets better but as you said it takes a long time to become mainstream.
      but other brands are doing well, lets total it and we get 0,5% of all car sales are EVs, not bad.
      So they sell about 500000 EVs per year of a total carsales nearing the 100 million cars

      Quote
      far as relative ranges. Here's some facts as of 2016
      Average 90mph that is even worse than what I said with 250km, still not enough for mainstream usage.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 03, 2018, 07:33:21 pm
      When will this happen?  It will be a continual process over the next 20-30 years.
      So we agree , EVs will not become mainstream anytime soon, thank you.

      I consider 20-30 years to be VERY soon. Nothing happens overnight.

      Quote
      Average 90mph that is even worse than what I said with 250km, still not enough for mainstream usage.

      True, but if you read the article, you'll see that that is based on all the BEV models available (as of 2016) which means all the tiny little 2 passenger EVs that have limited range and have been available for a while are impacting those statistics. Current trend is for bigger BEVs with greater range. For example the Nissan Leaf has a range of 151 miles and the Chevy Bolt has a range of 238 miles. And of course now the Tesla model 3 with range of 220 -310 miles.

      The trend is clear - BEV ranges are increasing while prices are decreasing.

      And of course there is zero range issues with PHEVs
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 03, 2018, 11:22:08 pm
      I consider 20-30 years to be VERY soon. Nothing happens overnight.
      ah well that definition is subjective/personal then  :)
      On the other forum there are these people without tech knowledge that read the marketing propaganda of battery startup companies claiming amazing breakthroughs if they get funding. They keep thinking and posting that battery energy density will double each two years or so, as if it is silicons Moores law.
      I can't convince them that unfortunately this is not the case. Normal people don't get this they see their device batterylifetime go up in a next generation device and dont understand it has a more energy saving processor etc etc in it. And if you tell them then they think it is the same for an EV while you can't save a lot of energy in EVs unless you dramatically decrease its mass and/or speed.
      I am glad you are more realistic and do have tech knowledge.
      And yeah secretly I do hope they invent a new safe clean portable powersource soon, the world needs it not only for EVs ;)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 04, 2018, 07:32:48 am
      EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
      Nope.
      That assumption is wrong.
      No it is not and it is very easy to understand. Ask yourself why an ICE based car has a fuel tank which takes it around 800km? Why would that be? Is that some kind of arbitrary number? No, it is not. It is what the customers find acceptable. Plain and simple and there is no argueing around it.

      Mr. Market would like a word with you, if you don't mind. Teslas with 300 mile range are flying off the shelves all around the globe.
      Tesla sales are zero compared to the total number of cars sold world wide so statistically irrelevant.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 04, 2018, 07:59:41 am
      Mr. Market would like a word with you, if you don't mind. Teslas with 300 mile range are flying off the shelves all around the globe.
      You mean the Tesla S with the 100kWH option, that is indeed a nice range for an EV which only is feasible when driving below 100km/h without airco or heating but still very nice car.
      One problem the €140000 pricetage is almost five times as high as a meanstream EV.
      If you had read the topic it is not only range but also the price which is a factor for a breakthrough.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Nauris on August 04, 2018, 04:14:27 pm
      The combination of short daily trips and occasional long distance driving is more or less exactly what plug in hybrids are designed for.

      I agree with that.  I just bought my son a used volt.  His drive to work is short so it works great for now.  He lives at home now and can charge it at night.  But he plans to move into an apartment so I'm not sure he will be able to charge the car.
      But then you can put solar panel on the roof of the car! If there are sunny days and he has short commute, it could even provide most of the power or at least it gives nice boost to battery and saves on gasoline. It would be easy to attach few panels to the roof rails and if you have time there are also these bare solar cell wafers available on Ebay and elsewhere, you could go and laminate whole engine bay door and back door with them for extra power.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on August 04, 2018, 06:43:20 pm
      The combination of short daily trips and occasional long distance driving is more or less exactly what plug in hybrids are designed for.

      I agree with that.  I just bought my son a used volt.  His drive to work is short so it works great for now.  He lives at home now and can charge it at night.  But he plans to move into an apartment so I'm not sure he will be able to charge the car.

      But then you can put solar panel on the roof of the car! If there are sunny days and he has short commute, it could even provide most of the power or at least it gives nice boost to battery and saves on gasoline. It would be easy to attach few panels to the roof rails and if you have time there are also these bare solar cell wafers available on Ebay and elsewhere, you could go and laminate whole engine bay door and back door with them for extra power.

      That won't fly.  The sun puts out on a sunny day 1 kW/m^2.  If the panel is 15% efficient that's 150 watt/m^2.  Let's say you could get 2 m^2 on a car.  That's 600 watts.  Not all of that will go in the battery.  Note the panel angle won't be optimum assuming you can stay out from under a tree our clouds.  So if your lucky you could get 7 hours per day.  1.2 kW-hr.  You won't go far on that and if the panels are set up for good solar collection they probably won't be very aerodynamic. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 04, 2018, 08:52:00 pm
      Seems like most of the people wo are promoting solar and EVs don’t understand the most basic laws of physics.  Many of the things they are proposing violate the laws of physics.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 04, 2018, 08:56:34 pm
      Seems like most of the people wo are promoting solar and EVs don’t understand the most basic laws of physics.

      Gee, generalize much... :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 04, 2018, 09:00:54 pm
      The combination of short daily trips and occasional long distance driving is more or less exactly what plug in hybrids are designed for.

      I agree with that.  I just bought my son a used volt.  His drive to work is short so it works great for now.  He lives at home now and can charge it at night.  But he plans to move into an apartment so I'm not sure he will be able to charge the car.

      But then you can put solar panel on the roof of the car! If there are sunny days and he has short commute, it could even provide most of the power or at least it gives nice boost to battery and saves on gasoline. It would be easy to attach few panels to the roof rails and if you have time there are also these bare solar cell wafers available on Ebay and elsewhere, you could go and laminate whole engine bay door and back door with them for extra power.

      That won't fly.  The sun puts out on a sunny day 1 kW/m^2.  If the panel is 15% efficient that's 150 watt/m^2.  Let's say you could get 2 m^2 on a car.  That's 600 watts.  Not all of that will go in the battery.  Note the panel angle won't be optimum assuming you can stay out from under a tree our clouds.  So if your lucky you could get 7 hours per day.  1.2 kW-hr.  You won't go far on that and if the panels are set up for good solar collection they probably won't be very aerodynamic.

      Spot on.  Solar panels mounted on a car are a non starter - only half a step more practical than solar roadways. ::)

      On the other hand, a properly designed home solar PV system can, in many cases, provide a
      large chunk (or all) of an EVs power needs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 04, 2018, 10:48:32 pm
      On the other hand, a properly designed home solar PV system can, in many cases, provide a
      large chunk (or all) of an EVs power needs.
      Yes but you still need a home battery for intermediate storage of substantial size and price,
      Or leave the car charging during the daytime.
      Handy for those who work at night but a bit impractical for most working people  ;)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 04, 2018, 11:56:26 pm
      On the other hand, a properly designed home solar PV system can, in many cases, provide a
      large chunk (or all) of an EVs power needs.
      Yes but you still need a home battery for intermediate storage of substantial size and price,
      Or leave the car charging during the daytime.

      Or just do what most people do - use the grid as the “battery”.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 04, 2018, 11:58:40 pm
      On the other hand, a properly designed home solar PV system can, in many cases, provide a
      large chunk (or all) of an EVs power needs.
      Yes but you still need a home battery for intermediate storage of substantial size and price,
      Or leave the car charging during the daytime.

      Or just do what most people do - use the grid as the “battery”.
      That works great for some people, and badly for others. It depends on your local energy export and import charges.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 05, 2018, 03:27:24 am
      In Nevada there is no export agreement any more.  That is why all of the big solar companies are no longer there.  In California it’s a different story.  One can use the grid for storage and sell high $0.45 and buy back low, $0.12.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 05, 2018, 09:29:43 am
      Currently in our country you get the raw kWh price back (ex taxes which are 70% or so) when you take back you pay the taxes.
      This is going to change to 0 payback because the energy companies can not deal with the abundance of energy on sunny days.
      The reason is apparently that they have fixed contracts with other suppliers and it takes a relative long time to reduce the intake rrom those companies so they have huge problems controlling the grid.
      They really need large batterry buffers fast, still it is kind of ironic that green energy that is not constant produces so many problems.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SparkyFX on August 05, 2018, 11:59:54 am
      They really need large batterry buffers fast, still it is kind of ironic that green energy that is not constant produces so many problems.
      As long as the production and the load can not be controlled it makes a lot of sense for it to be buffered - given the primary source of energy is free.
      There are solutions to actually store high amounts of energy apart from batteries... like pumping water uphill into artificial reservoirs (requires a suitable topology).

      Another way around the problem would be to synchronize loads (that allow it, maybe already containing buffers) with production. The prices however might be less predictable, such models therefore frowned upon by both utility and customer.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on August 05, 2018, 02:16:38 pm
      Another way around the problem would be to synchronize loads (that allow it, maybe already containing buffers) with production. The prices however might be less predictable, such models therefore frowned upon by both utility and customer.
      A system focused around turning *on* loads would be more accepted than one that turns off loads, if the load is of the type where more use at a given time reduces use at another time. Two examples that work really well for that are dedicated freezers and water heaters.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 06, 2018, 02:30:13 am
      Currently in our country you get the raw kWh price back (ex taxes which are 70% or so) when you take back you pay the taxes.
      This is going to change to 0 payback because the energy companies can not deal with the abundance of energy on sunny days.
      The reason is apparently that they have fixed contracts with other suppliers and it takes a relative long time to reduce the intake rrom those companies so they have huge problems controlling the grid.
      They really need large batterry buffers fast, still it is kind of ironic that green energy that is not constant produces so many problems.

      Batteries, don’t think so.  Have you looked at or done the math?   All of the batteries in the world won’t provide more than 15 minutes of electricity.   

      Try again.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 06, 2018, 05:37:28 am
      Currently in our country you get the raw kWh price back (ex taxes which are 70% or so) when you take back you pay the taxes.
      This is going to change to 0 payback because the energy companies can not deal with the abundance of energy on sunny days.
      The reason is apparently that they have fixed contracts with other suppliers and it takes a relative long time to reduce the intake rrom those companies so they have huge problems controlling the grid.
      They really need large batterry buffers fast, still it is kind of ironic that green energy that is not constant produces so many problems.

      Batteries, don’t think so.  Have you looked at or done the math?   All of the batteries in the world won’t provide more than 15 minutes of electricity.   

      Try again.

      Yawn. Another fact-free assertion from Fact-Free Doug. 

      On an engineering oriented forum, it’s best to actually do the math before making such statements. I’m not gonna do your homework for you but the Netherlands electricity usage is easily available online, as is the size of the larger battery banks already installed around the globe.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 06, 2018, 05:47:01 am
      Currently in our country you get the raw kWh price back (ex taxes which are 70% or so) when you take back you pay the taxes.
      This is going to change to 0 payback because the energy companies can not deal with the abundance of energy on sunny days.
      The reason is apparently that they have fixed contracts with other suppliers and it takes a relative long time to reduce the intake rrom those companies so they have huge problems controlling the grid.
      They really need large batterry buffers fast, still it is kind of ironic that green energy that is not constant produces so many problems.

      Batteries, don’t think so.  Have you looked at or done the math?   All of the batteries in the world won’t provide more than 15 minutes of electricity.   

      Try again.

      Yawn. Another fact-free assertion from Fact-Free Doug. 

      On an engineering oriented forum, it’s best to actually do the math before making such statements. I’m not gonna do your homework for you but the Netherlands electricity usage is easily available online, as is the size of the larger battery banks already installed around the globe.

      Netherlands.....   Isn’t that a tiny spec if compared to the rest of the world?  Most American’s would not be able to find it on a map.  If all the batteries in your country were to supply your country with electricity you would get what 5 minutes of electricity?

      Dude be realistic and do the math before you makes such silly claims.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 06, 2018, 06:19:42 am
      Yep, FFD is at it again.

      You have repeatedly in this thread and multiple other threads, stated something as a fact without any reference or source and which are demonstrably false. When called out and shown evidence of the mistruth of your statement, you either ignore the facts and keep repeating the same statement or move onto another subject again stating things as factual (not opinion) that are not accurate and the pattern repeats over and over in multiple threads.

      If you are not purposely trolling then please either back up your statements with reputable sources or make it clear that you are just offering a guess or opinion.  Once someone shows a source refuting your statement, don't just keep repeating the same statement unless you can offer an alternative reputable source backing up your statement

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 06, 2018, 06:59:01 am
      Batteries, don’t think so.  Have you looked at or done the math?   All of the batteries in the world won’t provide more than 15 minutes of electricity.   

      Netherlands.....   Isn’t that a tiny spec if compared to the rest of the world?  Most American’s would not be able to find it on a map.  If all the batteries in your country were to supply your country with electricity you would get what 5 minutes of electricity?

      Dude be realistic and do the math before you makes such silly claims.
      That is why it is called a buffer duh. Look at it as the elco bank in your power amplifier, the elco's don't need to power the entire amplifier they have to buffer the peak power and smooth the rimples in the main supply. Now see all the private owned PV installations as rimple and you get the point ;)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 06, 2018, 07:09:22 am
      Batteries, don’t think so.  Have you looked at or done the math?   All of the batteries in the world won’t provide more than 15 minutes of electricity.   

      Netherlands.....   Isn’t that a tiny spec if compared to the rest of the world?  Most American’s would not be able to find it on a map.  If all the batteries in your country were to supply your country with electricity you would get what 5 minutes of electricity?

      Dude be realistic and do the math before you makes such silly claims.
      That is why it is called a buffer duh. Look at it as the elco bank in your power amplifier, the elco's don't need to power the entire amplifier they have to buffer the peak power and smooth the rimples in the main supply. Now see all the private owned PV installations as rimple and you get the point ;)

      Also, such buffering is only necessary for relatively small geographic areas. Over larger areas/countries, variations in solar insolation or wind power as well as changes in load patterns ensure that these kind of buffering needs are both geographically and temporally localized. But don’t expect FFD to get any of this.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 06, 2018, 08:02:31 am
      Batteries, don’t think so.  Have you looked at or done the math?   All of the batteries in the world won’t provide more than 15 minutes of electricity.   

      Netherlands.....   Isn’t that a tiny spec if compared to the rest of the world?  Most American’s would not be able to find it on a map.  If all the batteries in your country were to supply your country with electricity you would get what 5 minutes of electricity?

      Dude be realistic and do the math before you makes such silly claims.
      That is why it is called a buffer duh. Look at it as the elco bank in your power amplifier, the elco's don't need to power the entire amplifier they have to buffer the peak power and smooth the rimples in the main supply. Now see all the private owned PV installations as rimple and you get the point ;)

      Also, such buffering is only necessary for relatively small geographic areas. Over larger areas/countries, variations in solar insolation or wind power as well as changes in load patterns ensure that these kind of buffering needs are both geographically and temporally localized. But don’t expect FFD to get any of this.
      Unfortunately that means that the distribution network needs to be much beefier than it is now. That also requires a hefty investment. The way I see it is that solar and wind are nice supplements but they can never become the primary energy source. When you add everything up then nuclear will be cheaper.

      Edit: I just read a news article  which says the companies which maintain the Dutch grid need 5 billion Euro to upgrade the grid in the next 12 years (and need to increase consumer prices to pay for it). Extrapolate that number to the size of the US.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 06, 2018, 08:29:15 am
      Edit: I just read a news article  which says the companies which maintain the Dutch grid need 5 billion Euro to upgrade the grid in the next 12 years (and need to increase consumer prices to pay for it). Extrapolate that number to the size of the US. 
      The US is notorious for not investing in infrastructure.
      They first have to spent what is it around 4,5 trillion $ to get everything at normal level,

      http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/asce-gives-us-infrastructure-a-d-2017-3 (http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/asce-gives-us-infrastructure-a-d-2017-3)

      On the other side we have done the same with our army which is desperately sinking to 3rd world country levels and invested way too much in public health IMO, ten times more than 20 years ago, rediculous.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 06, 2018, 01:50:46 pm
      Yep, FFD is at it again.

      You have repeatedly in this thread and multiple other threads, stated something as a fact without any reference or source and which are demonstrably false. When called out and shown evidence of the mistruth of your statement, you either ignore the facts and keep repeating the same statement or move onto another subject again stating things as factual (not opinion) that are not accurate and the pattern repeats over and over in multiple threads.

      If you are not purposely trolling then please either back up your statements with reputable sources or make it clear that you are just offering a guess or opinion.  Once someone shows a source refuting your statement, don't just keep repeating the same statement unless you can offer an alternative reputable source backing up your statement

      I’m trying to understand of the laws of physics do not apply wher you live or if in your country you do not receive a good education in physics.  Where is all of the magical energy you keep talking about going to come from?  Troy watching Dav’s video on batteries and battery technology.  Now take a look at the energy consumption of say your tiny little country,factor in Dave’s value for energy loss when using battery technology and then give a generous approximation for all of the batteries that are in you country.  Be sure to include every battery in a car, laptop computer and torch.

      And you think all of this battery power will power your county for how long?  Days weeks?  Dude not sure what kind of math youo’ve been smoking or physics you’ve been drinking but all of the batteries in your country coun not provide enough electricty to your country for even an hour.  We are talking minutes if even that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 06, 2018, 05:50:47 pm
      Yep, FFD is at it again.

      You have repeatedly in this thread and multiple other threads, stated something as a fact without any reference or source and which are demonstrably false. When called out and shown evidence of the mistruth of your statement, you either ignore the facts and keep repeating the same statement or move onto another subject again stating things as factual (not opinion) that are not accurate and the pattern repeats over and over in multiple threads.

      If you are not purposely trolling then please either back up your statements with reputable sources or make it clear that you are just offering a guess or opinion.  Once someone shows a source refuting your statement, don't just keep repeating the same statement unless you can offer an alternative reputable source backing up your statement

      I’m trying to understand of the laws of physics do not apply wher you live .......
      :palm:

      And the pattern repeats.  Analysis: Troll.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 06, 2018, 05:51:34 pm
      And the pattern repeats.  Analysis: Troll.

      Intersting how the uneducated who lack critical thinking skills immediatly copout an call people trolls just becuase they don't udnerstand and can not do simple math calculations.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 06, 2018, 05:52:38 pm
      Yep, FFD is at it again.

      You have repeatedly in this thread and multiple other threads, stated something as a fact without any reference or source and which are demonstrably false. When called out and shown evidence of the mistruth of your statement, you either ignore the facts and keep repeating the same statement or move onto another subject again stating things as factual (not opinion) that are not accurate and the pattern repeats over and over in multiple threads.

      If you are not purposely trolling then please either back up your statements with reputable sources or make it clear that you are just offering a guess or opinion.  Once someone shows a source refuting your statement, don't just keep repeating the same statement unless you can offer an alternative reputable source backing up your statement

      I’m trying to understand of the laws of physics do not apply wher you live .......
      :palm:

      And the pattern repeats.  Analysis: Troll.

      Dude take off the tinfoil hat and join the real world.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 06, 2018, 05:57:08 pm
      Quote
      Unfortunately that means that the distribution network needs to be much beefier than it is now. That also requires a hefty investment.
      Yes, I agree.

      Quote
      The way I see it is that solar and wind are nice supplements but they can never become the primary energy source.
      It’s true they can never fully replace fossil fuels. Nothing can. But they (along with hydro) are our best bet in easing the transition off of FF.

      Quote
      When you add everything up then nuclear will be cheaper.
      No, nuclear is more expensive now and will remain so. That is why it is slowly but surely dying out (see references I’ve previously posted in this thread). But we’ve covered this ground before  :horse:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 06, 2018, 06:00:06 pm
      The US is notorious for not investing in infrastructure.

      Yes, sadly true. Signs of an empire in decline.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SeanB on August 06, 2018, 06:05:45 pm
      The US is notorious for not investing in infrastructure.

      Yes, sadly true. Signs of an empire in decline.

      Not the only place.......
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 06, 2018, 06:07:40 pm
      The US is notorious for not investing in infrastructure.

      Yes, sadly true. Signs of an empire in decline.

      That's right.  US citizens are known for not paying taxes and protesting when we do.  Instead of spending money on infrastructrure we have lots more spending money than you.

      You folks could do the same.  But then again folks in Europe don't seem to spend money of infrastructre either.  Have you seen how many castels they have which are lying in ruin?   And many have been waiting to be fixed up are older then are country.  What's with that my European friends? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 06, 2018, 06:15:28 pm
      The US is notorious for not investing in infrastructure.

      Yes, sadly true. Signs of an empire in decline.


      You'r bashing us for empires in decline....  What about Portugal, Spain, French, Brittish, German and Nazi, Ottmam, Japanses, Hapsburg (okay, they was reaaly a House) Holy Roman and I'm sure I've missed many others empires.  We aren't even an empaire.  We are a demcratic republic.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 06, 2018, 06:20:57 pm
      The US is notorious for not investing in infrastructure.

      Yes, sadly true. Signs of an empire in decline.

      That's right.  US citizens are known for not paying taxes and protesting when we do.  Instead of spending money on infrastructrure we have lots more spending money than you.
      True but it doesn't help long term planning. One of the potential problems I foresee in the US is that there is a very large group of people who are poor and remain poor. Their violence and disrespect of the law will grow.
      Quote
      You folks could do the same.  But then again folks in Europe don't seem to spend money of infrastructre either.  Have you seen how many castels they have which are lying in ruin?   And many have been waiting to be fixed up are older then are country.  What's with that my European friends?
      Castles are not critical infrastructure. BTW there are also modern castle ruins:
      (https://www.drones.nl/media/wysiwyg/images/1463521652-kasteel-almere-ruine-flevoland.jpg)

      More serious: in most parts of Europe a lot of money is spend on keeping infrastructure in top notch condition. Reading this thread it occured to me that many people take infrastructure for granted without realising there are limits to it and it has been designed for a certain amount of traffic/load. Charging an EV from a single home in a street works without a problem. Charging an EV at every home suddenly shows the limitations to the infrastructure. Judging from recent news articles it seems that some people finally start to see how much money will need to be spend on the infrastructure alone to use EVs and switch to wind & solar for electricity. It is not just the solar panels and wind turbines but the whole chain in between needs to be altered radically which adds a huge amount of costs.

      @mtdoc: if you factor in storage and rebuilding the distribution grid into the costs I'm not sure nuclear will be more expensive compared to wind & solar.

      edit: typo
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 06, 2018, 06:23:46 pm
      You want to compare privately owned out of use castles to day to day necessary infrastructures as bridges and roads, really?  :palm:
      Have you ever been to Europe? The most historically important castles are open to the public as sorts of museums and they are financially doing fine and are being taken care of.
      But many not so important castles and houses esp privately owned are deteriorating, but then we have so many.....
      Other historically important sites can not be kept since nature is cruel, so for instance pompei and heracleon they stopped escavating since they are impossible to maintain. Perhaps in the future there are new conservation techniques.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on August 07, 2018, 08:43:19 pm
      Charging an EV at every home suddenly shows the limitations to the infrastructure. Judging from recent news articles it seems that some people finally start to see how much money will need to be spend on the infrastructure alone to use EVs

      Nope.
      Charging EVs at home happens mostly at night, when the grid load is very low.
      Quote
      IPL found that approximately 76% of the electricity used for charging occurred during
      off-peak period
      Quote
      The vast majority of in-home charging participants charged their vehicles overnight during off-peak periods.
      Where offered, time-based rates were successful in encouraging greater off-peak charging.
      https://www.smartgrid.gov/files/B3_revised_master-12-17-2014_report.pdf (https://www.smartgrid.gov/files/B3_revised_master-12-17-2014_report.pdf)
      Quote
      Scheduling electric cars recharging for the period of non-peak demand, a principle called valley filling, can save utilities millions of dollars by reducing their dependence on costly peaking plants, which are left standby and only run when the demand is high.

      In fact, after coordinating home charging,the only thing that needs a big update is the generation capacity. it's about +15% if all the cars convert to pure EV (calculated for germany as an exemple). And the power grid companies are eager to get parts of this new market :)
      switch to wind & solar for electricity
      Yep, that's necessary. Very necessary.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 07, 2018, 08:48:27 pm
      Charging an EV at every home suddenly shows the limitations to the infrastructure. Judging from recent news articles it seems that some people finally start to see how much money will need to be spend on the infrastructure alone to use EVs
      Nope.
      Charging EVs at home happens mostly at night, when the grid load is very low.
      In your dreams. Just do the math. Charging EVs is like everyone turning on their washer, dryer and electric cooker at the same time. The grid towards the residential areas has not been designed for this kind of load. It litterally takes changing the wiring to the doorstep of each home. Who is going to pay for that?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 07, 2018, 09:13:10 pm
      Charging an EV at every home suddenly shows the limitations to the infrastructure. Judging from recent news articles it seems that some people finally start to see how much money will need to be spend on the infrastructure alone to use EVs
      Nope.
      Charging EVs at home happens mostly at night, when the grid load is very low.
      In your dreams. Just do the math. Charging EVs is like everyone turning on their washer, dryer and electric cooker at the same time. The grid towards the residential areas has not been designed for this kind of load. It litterally takes changing the wiring to the doorstep of each home. Who is going to pay for that?

      You are absolutely correct on this one.  I have a Volt and can program charging start/stop times.  And I'm sure everyone else who has an plug-in EV will set their charging start time to be the exact same time as mine, when the electricity rates are lowest or at 2300.  Max power draw for a volt is 3,520 watts.  Now if there were 1,000 Volts which all began charging at the same moment the wattage draw would be 3.5 GW.  Now my car finishing charging around 0200  0300 hrs.  I would assume all other Volts would finish charging at about the same time.  Wonder what that would do to the grid.






       

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 07, 2018, 09:23:06 pm
      Now someone will likely chime in and propose some kind of charging scheduling solution but trust me: everyone wants to have a car fully charged in the morning and use the low electricity rate.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on August 07, 2018, 09:54:58 pm
      Quote
      Max power draw for a volt is 3,520 watts.  Now if there were 1,000 Volts which all began charging at the same moment the wattage draw would be 3.5 GW.
      Your math is really broken.
      Quote
      Now my car finishing charging around 0200  0300 hrs
      . Yep. And by shifting or spreading it, so it finishes at 6:00 before you leave the grid companies will be able to manage their grid, and avoid a harsh peak.

      And as I said, and as the electricity grids are anticipating: the future is on managing the EVs as a load, shifting them appropriately. That will smooth out the grid.

      Grids work by balancing two factors : loads and genration. Since over 100 years.
      They today have influence on a small amount of big loads. That influence will grow with EV adoption.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: The Soulman on August 07, 2018, 09:56:03 pm
      Now someone will likely chime in and propose some kind of charging scheduling solution but trust me: everyone wants to have a car fully charged in the morning and use the low electricity rate.

      Without having read this entire page nor the 64 previous ones, imho it is the task of (larger) employers to let the employee's charge their ev's at a slow rate during the day time, perhaps aided with some pv on the company's roof (when the sun shines...).
      Who would use a ev for something other than driving to work?  :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 07, 2018, 09:57:44 pm
      Now someone will likely chime in and propose some kind of charging scheduling solution but trust me: everyone wants to have a car fully charged in the morning and use the low electricity rate.

      Agreed.  But here's my thought....  How much electricity does a powerplant produce?  And what if the people charging cars do it during the day?  Then you have the regular load, plus the EV load all at the same time - solar generation.


      Not saying this won't work..... But with existing infrastructure, don't think so.

      I know here in Forest Fire teritory/California the power comapany would to upgarde the grid to a smart grid would be a 150% replacement cost.  Not only do you have to factor in 100% replacement of existing equipment, but the pruchase of spares.  (Adds another 50%.)  And then they would have to throw away all of the existing brand new unsuded spares.

      Want to pay?


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on August 07, 2018, 10:08:54 pm
      Quote
      And what if the people charging cars do it during the day?
      That's good. Approx 10% of EV charging happens during the day. that represents 2% of the total grid load for 100% BEV adoption.
      Basically it's the "long trip fast charging" issue. Which is not an issue for the grids but a sane growth opportunity which uses the ever more available solar power.
      Quote
      I know here in Forest Fire teritory/California the power comapany would to upgarde the grid to a smart grid would be a 150% replacement cost.
      That's marketing BS for saying that a TOU "smart" meter costs more than an old style meter. Doesn't really affect load balancing yet, only the pricing.

      Quote
      How much electricity does a powerplant produce?
      Depends. small residential PV plants produces typically a few kW. Large steam plants are at multi-GW scales.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 07, 2018, 10:50:07 pm
      Quote
      And what if the people charging cars do it during the day?
      That's good. Approx 10% of EV charging happens during the day. that represents 2% of the total grid load for 100% BEV adoption.
      Basically it's the "long trip fast charging" issue. Which is not an issue for the grids but a sane growth opportunity which uses the ever more available solar power.
      Quote
      I know here in Forest Fire teritory/California the power comapany would to upgarde the grid to a smart grid would be a 150% replacement cost.
      That's marketing BS for saying that a TOU "smart" meter costs more than an old style meter. Doesn't really affect load balancing yet, only the pricing.

      Quote
      How much electricity does a powerplant produce?
      Depends. small residential PV plants produces typically a few kW. Large steam plants are at multi-GW scales.

      No it's not marketing BS.  Just think about it.  All of the meters are now smart-meters.    Why means they can bill and plan for electricity usage in 15 minute increments.  Now as for the distribution equipment they are using some old stuff.  As in 300 baud Hayes modems still today.  (Yes they are cheap.)  And some of their equipment goes back to the 1970s if not earlier.  For power compnay to have a smart distribution system they would need to moderinze and standardize.  Thus the 150% price tag.  I think that's a low but fair estimate.  To really understand why the girid in Californona is the way it is would be to understand the history of power companies.  When cities were electricfying there cities 100+ year ago there was not grid.  Each city was there own power company and had a couple of street lights to power at night.  Next city might be 100 miles away.  No need to inconncet.  So each compnay did their own thing. 

      Just before World War II the electricfation of America was underway.  (Bad for the Japaneese and Germans.)  But this is when the grids were starting to appear.  So now you had one city which might have DC and the next city over using AC.  Each city/power company wnated politicaly to remain independent but they also needed to be connectoed to each other or the grid.  Fast forward to 2015 and California still has nearly 80 different power companies all connected via the grid, but all using unique ways of doing things and unique equipment and protocols.  We didn't have a war that wipped out our grid so it didn't need to be rebuilt.

      Now we are stuck with a mix of 1950s - 2018 technologies. 

      I took a college class in understanding the power grid.  It was actually very intersting.
      Cisco, Microsoft and Apple all thought they would make a fortune with the smargrid once smart meters were installed.  What they didn't do is talk to the power compnaies.  Cisco had designed and built custom powergrid equipment and protocols thinking the entire power indsutry would standardize on Cisco.  Then the saw the pricetag...... 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 07, 2018, 11:36:06 pm
      Interesting historical perspective, Doug. I don't think this necessarily means that widespread adoption of EVs is infeasible over the next decade, though.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on August 07, 2018, 11:43:00 pm

      Quote
      You are absolutely correct on this one.  I have a Volt and can program charging start/stop times.  And I'm sure everyone else who has an plug-in EV will set their charging start time to be the exact same time as mine, when the electricity rates are lowest or at 2300.  Max power draw for a volt is 3,520 watts.  Now if there were 1,000 Volts which all began charging at the same moment the wattage draw would be 3.5 GW.  Now my car finishing charging around 0200  0300 hrs.  I would assume all other Volts would finish charging at about the same time.  Wonder what that would do to the grid.
      I think you got your decimal point off by three orders of magnitude.  That's 3.5 MW.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 08, 2018, 12:06:32 am

      Quote
      You are absolutely correct on this one.  I have a Volt and can program charging start/stop times.  And I'm sure everyone else who has an plug-in EV will set their charging start time to be the exact same time as mine, when the electricity rates are lowest or at 2300.  Max power draw for a volt is 3,520 watts.  Now if there were 1,000 Volts which all began charging at the same moment the wattage draw would be 3.5 GW.  Now my car finishing charging around 0200  0300 hrs.  I would assume all other Volts would finish charging at about the same time.  Wonder what that would do to the grid.
      I think you got your decimal point off by three orders of magnitude.  That's 3.5 MW.


      Duh...….  Thanks, my bad.  I didn't mean 1,000 cars....  I meant 1,000,000 cars.  (Is that a nice save?)

      Took me years to switch computer hard drives from MB to GB.  And RAM from KB to MB to GB.  Now I'm thinking in G's all of the time.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on August 08, 2018, 12:12:16 am

      Quote
      You are absolutely correct on this one.  I have a Volt and can program charging start/stop times.  And I'm sure everyone else who has an plug-in EV will set their charging start time to be the exact same time as mine, when the electricity rates are lowest or at 2300.  Max power draw for a volt is 3,520 watts.  Now if there were 1,000 Volts which all began charging at the same moment the wattage draw would be 3.5 GW.  Now my car finishing charging around 0200  0300 hrs.  I would assume all other Volts would finish charging at about the same time.  Wonder what that would do to the grid.
      I think you got your decimal point off by three orders of magnitude.  That's 3.5 MW.


      Duh...….  Thanks, my bad.  I didn't mean 1,000 cars....  I meant 1,000,000 cars.  (Is that a nice save?)

      Took me years to switch computer hard drives from MB to GB.  And RAM from KB to MB to GB.  Now I'm thinking in G's all of the time.
      GM will love that.  1E6 volts in one city. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 08, 2018, 12:26:47 am

      Quote
      You are absolutely correct on this one.  I have a Volt and can program charging start/stop times.  And I'm sure everyone else who has an plug-in EV will set their charging start time to be the exact same time as mine, when the electricity rates are lowest or at 2300.  Max power draw for a volt is 3,520 watts.  Now if there were 1,000 Volts which all began charging at the same moment the wattage draw would be 3.5 GW.  Now my car finishing charging around 0200  0300 hrs.  I would assume all other Volts would finish charging at about the same time.  Wonder what that would do to the grid.
      I think you got your decimal point off by three orders of magnitude.  That's 3.5 MW.


      Duh...….  Thanks, my bad.  I didn't mean 1,000 cars....  I meant 1,000,000 cars.  (Is that a nice save?)

      Took me years to switch computer hard drives from MB to GB.  And RAM from KB to MB to GB.  Now I'm thinking in G's all of the time.
      GM will love that.  1E6 volts in one city.


      Yup - But fat chance of that happening in 2E1 or 3E1 years.  Maybe 1E10 years. 
      Chevy has only sold just over 1E5.  I think there are more ICE cars sold every month in the San Francsico Bay Area than all of the Votls and Bolts every sold.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on August 08, 2018, 07:58:39 am
      I love volts.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 08, 2018, 08:18:11 am
      Without having read this entire page nor the 64 previous ones, imho it is the task of (larger) employers to let the employee's charge their ev's at a slow rate during the day time, perhaps aided with some pv on the company's roof (when the sun shines...).
      Who would use a ev for something other than driving to work?  :) 
      This is not a core business for employers, some don't even provide parking spots for their employees, others like those of my partner charge a monthly fee for the possibility to park the car. Times are changing....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 08, 2018, 08:22:04 am
      Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
      I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on August 08, 2018, 09:24:59 am
      Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
      I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

      Nope, and Nope.

      1) Tesla makes an average of 24% on each and every vehicle sold. The losses come from investing more than that profit into growth.

      2) GM/Opel make huge losses on the Bolt/Opel Ampera-e because they produce it in homeopathic quantities. If the volume would go up to 1e6/Y,  many things would happen to reduce the costs, and make that a profitable business:
      - High dilution of fixed costs
      - Better sourcing agreements, especially for batteries -> much cheaper battery
      - redesign of the car to produce it at a lesser cost
      - every year, the cost of batteries drom 25-30% anyway.
      etcetcetc...

      This will all happen next year as EVs are now seriously taking off due to financial, market pressure, and regulations on emissions.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on August 08, 2018, 09:45:18 am
      I wonder if you could use existing residential mains wiring to go to a slightly higher voltage DC distribution, no digging, just need to install inverters in every home. Could be combined with HVDC upgrades to the grid for magnetic storm immunity. Regardless of EVs we really need to get working on that.

      In principle making AC distribution magnetic storm immune isn't that hard either, "just" need to have a system which can impress a DC voltage on the distribution line to push back against the induced DC voltage on the lines. The magnetic storm puts a fair amount of power in that push, but nothing compared to our grid power and nothing compared to our grid voltage. No one is making the investments though, HVDC would force the issue and is inherently immune (magnetic storm just raises or lower the voltage a bit, the inverters don't really care).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 08, 2018, 12:21:46 pm
      Nope, and Nope.
      Yes and Yes.

      Quote
      1) Tesla makes an average of 24% on each and every vehicle sold. The losses come from investing more than that profit into growth.
      There is a reason they are now only selling the most expensive Model3's first and have not shipped any of the start models. Even experts question at the moment they can make a profit on the starter models of the Model 3. We'll see.

      Quote
      2) GM/Opel make huge losses on the Bolt/Opel Ampera-e because they produce it in homeopathic quantities. If the volume would go up to 1e6/Y
      Yes there will be quantity related discounts but some things just don't add up.

      Quote
      - Better sourcing agreements, especially for batteries -> much cheaper battery
      - every year, the cost of batteries drom 25-30% anyway.
      This is and will remain the biggest problem to face, see the picture of the best guestimates made last year by Bloomberg.

      Quote
      This will all happen next year as EVs are now seriously taking off due to financial, market pressure, and regulations on emissions.
      Serious ? We'll see, I don't think it will exponentially grow next year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 08, 2018, 03:24:45 pm
      Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
      I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

      As if that’s a first for them....  American tax payers and tax payer money bail them out not to long ago.  If we saved GM from bankruptcy womder if we will save Tesla motors as welll.  Me thinks nor.

      Got to hand it to Elon.  He”s taken on one of the most political influencail industries in the United States and has been able to produce a decent product people want.  We can talk smack all about Tesla and EV cars all we want but give credit to Elon were credit is due.  That guy is making a quality product people are buying.  And he’s doing it as the car companies like GM are politically trying to put him out of business.

      The comments in this forum about EVs have been interesting.  I think what we have found is EV cars is they are not for everybody and some places might not have the infrastructure to deal with EVs.

      We know car exhaust is a major contributor to man caused climate change so we bertter get off our rears and do something before our planet’s atomhere resembles Venus.  With companies and political leaders not wanting to make changes as quickly as what’s needed, it’s up to the people to make it happen.

      Yesin many places the grid can’t handle folks plugin cars, but you know similar thing happened here in California with water.  People purchased homes and expected to have water.  When there wasn’t enough.....  We found a way to get it.  (Let’s just leave out the part we stole if from other states.)  My point, if more people buy plugin EVs and there’s not enough electricity or infrastructure to support it you had better believe politicians will see to the infrastructure will be upgraded and charging stations will be installed.  And if we don’t have the power plants to generate the power I’m sure people’e opinion on nuclear power will quickly change as they won’t want to sit in the dark for long,

      As I have stated several times, I own an EV and the next car I purchase will also be an EV.  I will never buy an ICE  vehicle unless I have to.  ICE vehicles suck, but that dosn’t mean I won’t drive one when I have to.  But if I have a choice, I would prefer to drive an EV.

      For all of you folks who think EV suck, try taking one for a test drive.  And even if you don’t like EVs be thankful for everyone who has purchased one.  We still might be contributing to global warming in that coal might be the energy source for the electricty, but at least it’s not in my state.  All of that pollution and radioactive waste is in another state so it’s there problem.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 08, 2018, 04:50:57 pm
      Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
      I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

      Nope, and Nope.

      1) Tesla makes an average of 24% on each and every vehicle sold. The losses come from investing more than that profit into growth.

      2) GM/Opel make huge losses on the Bolt/Opel Ampera-e because they produce it in homeopathic quantities. If the volume would go up to 1e6/Y,  many things would happen to reduce the costs, and make that a profitable business:
      - High dilution of fixed costs
      - Better sourcing agreements, especially for batteries -> much cheaper battery
      - redesign of the car to produce it at a lesser cost
      - every year, the cost of batteries drom 25-30% anyway.
      etcetcetc...

      This will all happen next year as EVs are now seriously taking off due to financial, market pressure, and regulations on emissions.


      What a bunch of marketing spin.


      Got to love this one.....

      - Better sourcing agreements, especially for batteries -> much cheaper battery  -  We've only been trying to do that for over 100 years.  Dude take a physics and chemsitry class or even watch one of Dave's videos.  THere is energy looss in the chemical reactions to chnarge and discharge batteries.  Acording to Dave there's a 20% loss in charning and 20% loss when discharging.  Just how exactly can they be made cheaper?  We've been making batteries for well over 100 years.  One would think in 100 years we are making them as inexpensivly as possible by now.

      - redesign of the car to produce it at a lesser cost  - Dude you don't think cars are made cheaply now?  In over 100 years of car desinging you don't think the thousands of car designers aren't pressured into saving every penny they can in designing cars?  Curd man, the metal fasteners which were once used are now plastic.  What exactly do you think can be done to make produce the cars at a lower cost?  Slave labor?

      - every year, the cost of batteries drom 25-30% anyway. - Hahaha.....  I've been hearing that over the past 10 years.  By now the battereis should be free.

      Now this one is the best.....
      This will all happen next year as EVs are now seriously taking off due to financial, market pressure, and regulations on emissions.

      This line has been on and off for 40 - 50 years.  Ever since the gas lines since the 1970s.  And every year since the Prius, Leaf, Volt and other EV vehicles hit the market.  Dude look at the sales figures over the past 10 years.  It's like comparing the amount of water in spit as what's in a swimming pool.  In 10 - 15 years of EV sales is it even 1%?  Don't think so.

      If you really want EV car sales to take off the car companies will need to give cash incentives to the sales people.  As soon as those commissioned sales people start making make EVs is when sales will take off.  Until then, don't expect much.  Right now selling an ICE is much easier than selling an EV.

      Insteand of just repeating the BS marketing hype try using some critical thinking skills you hopefully have learned.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 08, 2018, 06:58:39 pm
      News about Tesla.....  Elon has plans to take it private. Ans the stock soars.

      What a brilliant way to get people to invest in your company without selling share of stock or taking out any loans.


      Just as brilliant as getting a half-billion dollar loan tax free by having people put a cash deposit on a car 2-3 years before it becomes available.


      The man is just as clever and being a BS marketer as Nikola Tesla was.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 08, 2018, 08:51:57 pm
      This will probably not go unpunished.
      Communication from mgt of a stockmarket company is bound by strict rules as to not influence the market.
      Tweeting like Donald on the middle of the day when the markets are open that you going to buy your own stock at $420 while it is tradi g at 375 something can be considered stock market manipulation.
      Inteesting to see what reprimands will follow.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 08, 2018, 10:06:54 pm
      I know dictators and kings can get away with stuff like that.  But the President of the United States?  Oh wait, that's happened before,... And not just once.  We just like to say an make it appear that a capitalistic democratic republic is better than all other forms of government and less corrupt. But in the end are we really any better?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 09, 2018, 01:28:09 am
      Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
      I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

      Oh please!  ::) The initial FUD about Volts being sold at a loss, spread by the anti-EV crowd in 2012 after the Volts introduction, was based on the erroneous idea that if you divide the initial development costs of a new product with new technology by the first few years sales you are “selling them at a loss”. 

      Of course this ignores the fact that if the priduct is a success - as the Volt clearly has been- then after a few years those development costs will have been recouped. And of course that new technology will now also be available to employ in other products.

      How many electronics products could be said to be “sold at a loss” using the same simple minded logic.?

      On an engineering forum of all places the reality of development costs versus lifetime sales and profits should be understood. It’s shocking that some here might not get it.

      GM sells over 20k Volts a year. I can assure you they are not being sold at a loss.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 09, 2018, 04:33:01 am
      Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
      I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

      Oh please!  ::) The initial FUD about Volts being sold at a loss, spread by the anti-EV crowd in 2012 after the Volts introduction, was based on the erroneous idea that if you divide the initial development costs of a new product with new technology by the first few years sales you are “selling them at a loss”. 

      Of course this ignores the fact that if the priduct is a success - as the Volt clearly has been- then after a few years those development costs will have been recouped. And of course that new technology will now also be available to employ in other products.

      How many electronics products could be said to be “sold at a loss” using the same simple minded logic.?

      On an engineering forum of all places the reality of development costs versus lifetime sales and profits should be understood. It’s shocking that some here might not get it.

      GM sells over 20k Volts a year. I can assure you they are not being sold at a loss.

      While I completely agree with everything you say....  Your last sentence has me wondering if GM is not receiving a tax credit, carbon credit or some other subsidy.  I am sure a company like GM would not sell a product as complex as a car which comes with liabilities and warranty repairs  at a loss.  But I am wondering if there's not some under the table dealing that's going on.


      Most companies will destroy product rather than sell at a loss.  Selling a brand name item at a discount only cheapens the brand. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 09, 2018, 05:54:48 am
      StarTalk pod cast on Formula E or EV racing cars.  Formula E.
      Formula E is an auto racing series that strictly uses electric-powered cars.

      Of particular interest is the discussion about the batteries.
      Paul McNamara, Technical Director at Williams Advanced Engineering, the company that makes all the batteries for every team.  Unlike an ICE Formula One race car which is heavier and only around 30% efficient.  Formula E EV race cars are about 80% efficient and the power or HP delivered to the wheel in instantaneous.  EV race cars are adding a new dimension to automobile racing.
      What’s really interesting is technology and software used in Formula E race cars makes its way into consumer production vehicles in only a year or two.

      This podcast is well worth listening too.  Something else that's interesting is well known Formula One racing teams are defecting over to Formula E racing.

      Formula E racing is really going to "push" the development and adoption of EV cars.  Funny no one has thought about or even mentioned this before.

      https://www.startalkradio.net/show/the-electrifying-world-of-formula-e/ (https://www.startalkradio.net/show/the-electrifying-world-of-formula-e/)


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 09, 2018, 08:59:45 am
      I doubt Formula 1 cars are only 30% efficient. They use very new ICE principles and have a limited amount of fuel. Besides that formula 1 cars have hybrid (electric + ICE) drive systems.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 09, 2018, 09:00:28 am
      Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
      I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

      Oh please!  ::) The initial FUD about Volts being sold at a loss, spread by the anti-EV crowd in 2012 after the Volts introduction, was based on the erroneous idea that if you divide the initial development costs of a new product with new technology by the first few years sales you are “selling them at a loss”. 

      Of course this ignores the fact that if the priduct is a success - as the Volt clearly has been- then after a few years those development costs will have been recouped. And of course that new technology will now also be available to employ in other products.

      How many electronics products could be said to be “sold at a loss” using the same simple minded logic.?

      On an engineering forum of all places the reality of development costs versus lifetime sales and profits should be understood. It’s shocking that some here might not get it.

      GM sells over 20k Volts a year. I can assure you they are not being sold at a loss.
      Your assurance is worth nil nada zilch because yes they are loosing money on each and every ev car, most recent articles still say so.
      I heard about this LAST year when the PSA group bought the Opel/Vauxhall from GM which sells the Volt as the Opel Ampera at a loss of €10k per €45k car which is huge!
      PSA stopped sales immediately.

      Better Google and you see that GM hopes to make a profit on EVs in 2021 when battery prices keep on going down. i get it that an initial investment takes time to make a profit but we are talking about ten years. Some companies do not last ten years.
      https://insideevs.com/gm-reportedly-suffered-12000-loss-per-ampera-e-bolt-sold-opel/ (https://insideevs.com/gm-reportedly-suffered-12000-loss-per-ampera-e-bolt-sold-opel/)
      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-electric-insight/gm-races-to-build-a-formula-for-profitable-electric-cars-idUSKBN1EY0GG (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-electric-insight/gm-races-to-build-a-formula-for-profitable-electric-cars-idUSKBN1EY0GG)
      https://insideevs.com/moodys-says-automakers-lose-7000-to-10000-per-electric-car-sold/ (https://insideevs.com/moodys-says-automakers-lose-7000-to-10000-per-electric-car-sold/)



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 09, 2018, 11:01:20 am
      Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
      I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

      Oh please!  ::) The initial FUD about Volts being sold at a loss, spread by the anti-EV crowd in 2012 after the Volts introduction, was based on the erroneous idea that if you divide the initial development costs of a new product with new technology by the first few years sales you are “selling them at a loss”. 

      Of course this ignores the fact that if the priduct is a success - as the Volt clearly has been- then after a few years those development costs will have been recouped. And of course that new technology will now also be available to employ in other products.

      How many electronics products could be said to be “sold at a loss” using the same simple minded logic.?

      On an engineering forum of all places the reality of development costs versus lifetime sales and profits should be understood. It’s shocking that some here might not get it.

      GM sells over 20k Volts a year. I can assure you they are not being sold at a loss.
      Your assurance is worth nil nada zilch because yes they are loosing money on each and every ev car, most recent articles still say so.
      I heard about this LAST year when the PSA group bought the Opel/Vauxhall from GM which sells the Volt as the Opel Ampera at a loss of €10k per €45k car which is huge!
      PSA stopped sales immediately.

      Better Google and you see that GM hopes to make a profit on EVs in 2021 when battery prices keep on going down. i get it that an initial investment takes time to make a profit but we are talking about ten years. Some companies do not last ten years.
      https://insideevs.com/gm-reportedly-suffered-12000-loss-per-ampera-e-bolt-sold-opel/ (https://insideevs.com/gm-reportedly-suffered-12000-loss-per-ampera-e-bolt-sold-opel/)
      https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-electric-insight/gm-races-to-build-a-formula-for-profitable-electric-cars-idUSKBN1EY0GG (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-electric-insight/gm-races-to-build-a-formula-for-profitable-electric-cars-idUSKBN1EY0GG)
      https://insideevs.com/moodys-says-automakers-lose-7000-to-10000-per-electric-car-sold/ (https://insideevs.com/moodys-says-automakers-lose-7000-to-10000-per-electric-car-sold/)

      Ah I see the reason for your confusion and error. 

      Those articles are about the GM Bolt not the GM Volt.  The Bolt is a BEV that was just released in 2017, so it’s not surprising.

       The Volt on the other hand was released 8 years ago and is a PHEV with a much smaller battery.

      BTW, what idiot at GM decided to have 2 cars whose name only differs by one letter? :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 09, 2018, 11:25:00 am
      BTW, what idiot at GM decided to have 2 cars whose name only differs by one letter? :palm:
      Perhaps when they named the Bolt they knew how badly they intended to screw up its marketing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 09, 2018, 12:39:43 pm
      Ah ok my mistake then, no I am only talking 100% EVs here, in Europe there are reserved parking spots for EVs to charge and hybrids are not allowed even (€250 fine)
      Hybrids I already see as ntegrated and accepted, it is the full EV solution that is still problematic IMO and will take quite some time, i provements and cost reductionsto be as usable as ices and hybrids.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 09, 2018, 12:46:16 pm
      Ah ok my mistake then, no I am only talking 100% EVs here, in Europe there are reserved parking spots for EVs to charge and hybrids are not allowed even (€250 fine)
      Hybrids I already see as ntegrated and accepted, it is the full EV solution that is still problematic IMO and will take quite some time, i provements and cost reductionsto be as usable as ices and hybrids.
      The Volt is a PHEV. In the UK PHEVs plug in and charge up at reserved parking spots. I see lots of Mitsubishi Outlander PHEVs at those charging stations.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 09, 2018, 02:55:59 pm
      Ah ok my mistake then, no I am only talking 100% EVs here, in Europe there are reserved parking spots for EVs to charge and hybrids are not allowed even (€250 fine)
      Hybrids I already see as ntegrated and accepted, it is the full EV solution that is still problematic IMO and will take quite some time, i provements and cost reductionsto be as usable as ices and hybrids.

      You need to distinguish between parallel hybrids and plug in hybrids (serial hybrids) whuch truly are EVs just with shorter all electric range than BEVs and with a “range extender” ICE. Many people like me, drive them almost entirely in all electric mode.

      I’ve never seen a public charging station that does not allow PHEVs. As mentioned, the Outlander PHEV is popular in the  UK. It was just released in the US a few months ago.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 09, 2018, 04:06:21 pm
      It is not as much a public charging station as a parking spot which are reserved for EVs to charge.
      An EV sometimes need hours of charging to get 20-40% while a hybrid often is charged within an hour and even with a flat battery it will run on its ice engine.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 09, 2018, 04:15:40 pm
      It is not as much a public charging station as a parking spot which are reserved for EVs to charge.
      An EV sometimes need hours of charging to get 20-40% while a hybrid often is charged within an hour and even with a flat battery it will run on its ice engine.
      Most public charging bays are in places like shopping mall car parks. People are typically only there for the sort of time it takes a PHEV to charge for the trip home. Without that, the PHEV will probably need to use some gas on the way home. These points seem far more valuable for PHEVs than for EVs, which can usually do the round trip to the shops with ease.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on August 09, 2018, 08:46:58 pm
      EV race cars are adding a new dimension to automobile racing.

      But F1 cars are much faster, about 100 mph more than any FE, more powerful, weight much less and generate tons of downforce, and FE EVs run out of juice pretty fast, so there's no way an FE can do, say, 67 laps at Hockenheim, or a 1 1/2 hour race. In other words, there's no comparison.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: labjr on August 09, 2018, 09:28:27 pm
      I would never get an electric car until the total cost of ownership, per mile, for the life of the car, is less than a gas powered model. And is just as convenient to refuel. I don't care about the environment any more than Al Gore does. Which is zero! I need to get from point A to point B as inexpensively as possible.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 09, 2018, 09:39:49 pm
      I would never get an electric car until the total cost of ownership, per mile, for the life of the car, is less than a gas powered model. And is just as convenient to refuel. I don't care about the environment any more than Al Gore does. Which is zero! I need to get from point A to point B as inexpensively as possible.

      Then you should get one now since there are several available for which lifetime cost of ownership is less than equivalent ICE and even more convenient to refuel.  But I suspect you are really more just out to make a political statement.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 09, 2018, 10:40:16 pm
      You skipped over the 'equally convenient to refuel'. If labjr has no private parking space and/or needs to drive long distances than the current crop of EVs is utterly useless to him.

      And we even didn't get to the costs part. The price difference of the EV compared to ICE gets you about 150k to 200k km further before break even at very high fuel prices using an efficient car. Factor in electricity at 20 cents per kWh then that distance will cost you at least around $6750 for the electricity (no, electricity from solar panels isn't free either). That buys you enough fuel for another 84000km. So the actual financial break even point is way beyond 250k km. By that time the battery of the EV is likely to have issues.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 09, 2018, 10:45:00 pm
        :horse: :horse: :horse:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: labjr on August 09, 2018, 11:09:28 pm

      Then you should get one now since there are several available for which lifetime cost of ownership is less than equivalent ICE and even more convenient to refuel.  But I suspect you are really more just out to make a political statement.

      So everyone must be uninformed?  BS!

      If electric cars were more economical and more convenient, everyone would be driving them already.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 10, 2018, 12:05:49 am

      Then you should get one now since there are several available for which lifetime cost of ownership is less than equivalent ICE and even more convenient to refuel.  But I suspect you are really more just out to make a political statement.

      So everyone must be uninformed?  BS!

      If electric cars were more economical and more convenient, everyone would be driving them already.

      Have you read the rest of this thread?
      Lots of data has been presented. Transitions take time.

      Nevertheless, EV adoption rate is rising exponentially. But we’ve had 100 years of ICE motoring and the infrastructure comes with it. It should be obvious to anyone that such a transition will take time. 20-30 years is my guess and that would be a remarkable feat given the entrenched ICE businesses and infrastructure. 

      As far as why EV sales growth is not even more rapid than its already very rapid pace. There are several reasons that should be obvious to anyone who gives it a few moments thought.

      1.Most people are unaware that there are, depending on their circumstances*, BEVs or PHEVs available right now that will save them money and make their life more convenient.  (* yes this does not apply to everyone)

      2. People are creatures of habit, and generally just go with what they already know.

      3. Despite what you and others may claim, most people do not base their decisions on lifetime cost of ownership or refuelling convenience.

      4. Many, many people cannot afford ANY new car and there is not yet a well established used EV market - they have not been aroind long enough.

      5. There is a strong and vocal anti-EV political contingent who refuse to consider anything they associate with a certain part of the political spectrum,  justified ot not.

      6.There are powerful corporate interests who are motivated to slow the EV growth rate as much as possible (and spend large amounts of cash to work towards that end).

      No,  EVs aren’t the answer for everyone - but in the US especially where very few don’t have the ability to charge at home, they are a good, financially viable option now.

      The reality is that NOTHING  will ever be able to fully replace the ICE.  The era of “Happy Motoring” where anyone and everyone could afford a vehicle powered by liquid fossillized sunshine and travel everywhere anytime is coming to a lose. Most people are either unaware or just unable or unwilling to accept it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: labjr on August 10, 2018, 12:22:20 am
      People aren't stupid. Most go for least expensive option.

      If you don't believe me, stand outside where there's a Target next to Walmart and you will see.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 10, 2018, 12:38:49 am
      People aren't stupid. Most go for least expensive option.

      If you don't believe me, stand outside where there's a Target next to Walmart and you will see.

       :palm:

      Yeah that’s why the only vehicles sold are $4000 used cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 10, 2018, 05:29:11 am
      I doubt Formula 1 cars are only 30% efficient. They use very new ICE principles and have a limited amount of fuel. Besides that formula 1 cars have hybrid (electric + ICE) drive systems.

      So what is the efficiency of a Foumula One car?

      Did you listen to the podcast?  The engineers who work on Formula One cars are the ones giving the efficiency figures. :-DMM
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on August 10, 2018, 07:58:47 am
      So what is the efficiency of a Foumula One car?

      30% was the efficiency peak for old normally-aspirated V8 engines, current f1 cars have turbos and are hybrid, so must be more than that, closer to 50%.

      The reality is that NOTHING  will ever be able to fully replace the ICE.  The era of “Happy Motoring” where anyone and everyone could afford a vehicle powered by liquid fossillized sunshine and travel everywhere anytime is coming to a lose. Most people are either unaware or just unable or unwilling to accept it.

      That, sadly, may be true.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 10, 2018, 08:42:20 am
      The reality is that NOTHING  will ever be able to fully replace the ICE.  The era of “Happy Motoring” where anyone and everyone could afford a vehicle powered by liquid fossillized sunshine and travel everywhere anytime is coming to a lose. Most people are either unaware or just unable or unwilling to accept it.
      For the short term yes, the long term I don't know.
      The big question is if everyone should own/have one or multiple transportaion vehicles or that in the era of self driving vehicles you can just ask for one if you need to go somewhere.
      The world is and has to change in order to be more sustainable for the longer future.
      Having 1600kg of metal standing still for 93% of the time on the parkway for 7 billion people might not be the best way to solve the human transportation challenge esp when as the trend seems to go that 75% of humans will live in cities in the 22nd century.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 10, 2018, 02:49:32 pm
      And we even didn't get to the costs part. The price difference of the EV compared to ICE gets you about 150k to 200k km further before break even at very high fuel prices using an efficient car. Factor in electricity at 20 cents per kWh then that distance will cost you at least around $6750 for the electricity (no, electricity from solar panels isn't free either). That buys you enough fuel for another 84000km. So the actual financial break even point is way beyond 250k km. By that time the battery of the EV is likely to have issues.

      Show your work. Qualitative math is not useful here.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 10, 2018, 03:22:02 pm
      EV race cars are adding a new dimension to automobile racing.

      But F1 cars are much faster, about 100 mph more than any FE, more powerful, weight much less and generate tons of downforce, and FE EVs run out of juice pretty fast, so there's no way an FE can do, say, 67 laps at Hockenheim, or a 1 1/2 hour race. In other words, there's no comparison.

      Dude how can you say there is no comparison?  Did you listen to the Allstars podcast?  F1 cars are heavier and far less efficient?  To make the race fair for EV they limit the battery power output.  While the speed are not quite F1 ICE speeds the acelleration kicks F1 ICE ass. 

      I eencouage you to listen to the podcast because it all a loud comparing F1 with FE. 

      What’s really exciting about FE is the technology used in FE makes it’s way into production cars in a year or two.  As compared to F1 technology which doesn't.  Oh crud, there I am making a comparison.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 10, 2018, 03:22:56 pm
      And we even didn't get to the costs part. The price difference of the EV compared to ICE gets you about 150k to 200k km further before break even at very high fuel prices using an efficient car. Factor in electricity at 20 cents per kWh then that distance will cost you at least around $6750 for the electricity (no, electricity from solar panels isn't free either). That buys you enough fuel for another 84000km. So the actual financial break even point is way beyond 250k km. By that time the battery of the EV is likely to have issues.
      Show your work. Qualitative math is not useful here.
      The price difference between a comparable EV and efficient ICE car is around $9000. Say fuel costs $1.00 per liter then that difference buys you 9000 liters of fuel. At 20 km/liter (which a modern fuel efficient ICE can do easely) that amount of fuel will get you 180 000km. Ofcourse this equation will be different based on local fuel prices.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 10, 2018, 03:34:16 pm
      Going the same distance (180k km) in an electric car would cost you 32% as much, about $2900, if 75 kWh gets you 340 miles of range and electricity is 12.5¢/kWh. Many EV owners pay even less, 4-10¢/kWh. I don't see why you think it would take so long to break even.

      Also, 20km/l is not "easy" for most ICE cars that aren't Priuses. That converts to about 47 mpg. Average mileage in the US is still less than 25 mpg, or about 11 km/l. Even a VW Golf will struggle to get over 35 mpg. There are very few people who would be worse off on the five-ten year timespan by buying an EV.

      Gas in the EU is also much more expensive than $1/l... in Amsterdam it has been over $1.6/l for the past four months! That means your 180,000 km in a 47 mpg Prius will actually cost $15000, more than 5x as much as the electric car. If you drive a more realistic EU car like a Honda manual, efficiency is close to 15 km/l, meaning 180,000km of gas costs $19,000.

      tl;dr Gas in the EU is 60% more expensive than nctnico says, EU cars seem to get 75% of the fuel efficiency that nctnico says. Gas in the US is about the price claimed, $3.50/gallon, but average US fuel efficiency is barely 55% of what nctnico says.

      These small exaggerations add up: he says it would cost $9000 to go 180,000 km, but in the EU that number is closer to $19000 when you factor in real-world efficiency and gas prices.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on August 10, 2018, 03:48:08 pm
      I'd rather they threw some money at Phinergy to get aluminium air batteries for racing, assuming the Phinergy car wasn't a complete scam they already have the technology for useful power density and much higher energy density than lithium ion. Not a good battery tech for general purpose use, but ideal for racing.

      Lithium Ion is a dead end.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 10, 2018, 03:56:24 pm
      Going the same distance (180k km) in an electric car would cost you 32% as much, about $2900, if 75 kWh gets you 340 miles of range and electricity is 12.5¢/kWh. Many EV owners pay even less, 4-10¢/kWh. I don't see why you think it would take so long to break even.

      Also, 20km/l is not "easy" for most ICE cars that aren't Priuses. That converts to about 47 mpg. Average mileage in the US is still less than 25 mpg, or about 11 km/l. There are very few people who would be worse off on the five-ten year timespan by buying an EV.

      Gas in the EU is also much more expensive than $1/l... in Amsterdam it has been over $1.6/l for the past four months! That means your 180,000 km in a 47 mpg Prius will actually cost $15000, almost 5x as much as the electric car.
      But you forget the EV costs much more to begin with and for that amount of money you can drive a very long way whether it is 100k km or 200k km (and that is assuming the electricity is for free for the EV). In the NL 1kWh costs around 0.21 euro cents. Driving 180k km would cost around 8505 euro for the electricity. For that you can buy enough fuel to drive over 100k km with an efficient ICE car. All in all driving the EV is cheaper but around 44% and not 70%.

      Also don't make the mistake by looking at average consumption. You are buying a new EV or new ICE car so you can choose the most efficient one. For example the Ford cars with the 1.0 ecoboost engine are very efficient.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: labjr on August 10, 2018, 03:58:13 pm
      Is excise tax added to electric cars?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 10, 2018, 04:02:30 pm
      Ecoboost is basically marketing. Ford doesn't even manufacture cars/sedans for the US anymore, but if you can buy the 2018 Ecoboost Focus you are told 30/40 mpg, but real-world is probably closer to 35, or about 16 km/l.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 10, 2018, 04:07:02 pm
      For that you can buy enough fuel to drive over 100k km with an efficient ICE car. All in all driving the EV is cheaper but around 44% and not 70%.

      Yes, and this is why we do not exaggerate by saying cars easily get 20 km/l and gas is $1/l. Electric cars have lower operating costs, lower sensitivity to global oil prices, and a multitude of other benefits at the expense of 10-20% higher initial costs.

      In the long run, the grid and market will adapt and people will buy them just as they bought $400-700 iPhones and Androids over $50-200 flip phones and Blackberries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 10, 2018, 04:11:21 pm
      Is excise tax added to electric cars?

      Only in some US states, where it averages $23 (I think per year). https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 10, 2018, 04:17:44 pm
      So what is the efficiency of a Foumula One car?

      30% was the efficiency peak for old normally-aspirated V8 engines, current f1 cars have turbos and are hybrid, so must be more than that, closer to 50%.

      The reality is that NOTHING  will ever be able to fully replace the ICE.  The era of “Happy Motoring” where anyone and everyone could afford a vehicle powered by liquid fossillized sunshine and travel everywhere anytime is coming to a lose. Most people are either unaware or just unable or unwilling to accept it.

      That, sadly, may be true.

      What is it you know, that the F1 designeres, engineers and drivers in the podcast don't know?  If you can get close to 50% they would hire you immediatly.  They don't know how to do it.  And they have all of the equipmnet to measure it.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 10, 2018, 04:20:47 pm
      Doug is spot on: https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/131772/mercedes-engine-hits-remarkable-dyno-target (https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/131772/mercedes-engine-hits-remarkable-dyno-target)

      Quote
      It has used a version of its F1 engine in its new Project ONE road car, which has a thermal efficiency of 40%.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 10, 2018, 04:28:15 pm
      For that you can buy enough fuel to drive over 100k km with an efficient ICE car. All in all driving the EV is cheaper but around 44% and not 70%.
      Yes, and this is why we do not exaggerate by saying cars easily get 20 km/l and gas is $1/l. Electric cars have lower operating costs, lower sensitivity to global oil prices, and a multitude of other benefits at the expense of 10-20% higher initial costs.
      Now you are assuming electricity will be available in large quantities. I'm quite sure it won't so instead of relying on oil prices you'll be relying on other factors.

      I'm also not sure about lower operating costs. This year I visited some schools where teenagers learn to be a car mechanic. None of them where teaching about electric cars. Only one had a Prius but they didn't use it because of safety reasons. This means you'll need to rely on a specialist for servicing your EV for the upcoming decade while you can take your ICE car to the garage around the corner. I posted it earlier in this thread: the maintenance costs for an EV are higher than that of an ICE based car.

      I don't get where people get the idea that an EV has lower maintenance costs. It also has a gearbox, drive shaft, brakes, motor drive electronics and (usually) a cooling/heating system for the battery. It is not like an EV is less complex if you look at the entire car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: labjr on August 10, 2018, 04:34:34 pm


      Only in some US states, where it averages $23 (I think per year). https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair)


      Well that doesn't seem like much compared to approximately fifty cents per gallon tax on gasoline.  That would have to go up considerably.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 10, 2018, 04:52:47 pm


      Only in some US states, where it averages $23 (I think per year). https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair)


      Well that doesn't seem like much compared to approximately fifty cents per gallon tax on gasoline.  That would have to go up considerably.

      You bring up an excellent point about taxes.  EV vehicles are getting a free ride so to speak when it comes to taxes.  As of July 1, 2019 Californians will be paying  $.767 per gallon of gas in taxes.  What do these taxes pay for?  The maintenance of our roads and highways.  If one owns an EV and does not buy any gas where's the money going to come form.  If I recall correctly there is a tax on tires, (not much) which pays for road maintenance.

      Is this the same in other countries?


      At the moment, EV drivers aren't paying their fair share to maintain the roads they depend on.





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on August 10, 2018, 05:18:47 pm
      Also, 20km/l is not "easy" for most ICE cars that aren't Priuses. That converts to about 47 mpg. Average mileage in the US is still less than 25 mpg, or about 11 km/l.
      Most new cars do better than 25 MPG highway. The 2018 non hybrid Camry does 41 MPG highway and the hybrid version 53 MPG. It's obvious EVs are pushing for regular cars to increase MPG to try to stay competitive. And thereby I argue that EVs are of benefit even to those who don't drive one. (Something like how Linux pushed Microsoft to make a consumer version of Windows that's actually reliable.)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: labjr on August 10, 2018, 05:40:24 pm

      You bring up an excellent point about taxes.  EV vehicles are getting a free ride so to speak when it comes to taxes.  As of July 1, 2019 Californians will be paying  $.767 per gallon of gas in taxes.  What do these taxes pay for?  The maintenance of our roads and highways.  If one owns an EV and does not buy any gas where's the money going to come form.  If I recall correctly there is a tax on tires, (not much) which pays for road maintenance.

      Is this the same in other countries?


      At the moment, EV drivers aren't paying their fair share to maintain the roads they depend on.

      Exactly. EV's aren't exactly the perpetual motion machines many proponents claim they are. They're getting a free ride on excise tax because right now there is such small numbers compared to gasoline powered cars. But that will change. I imagine you will eventually be assessed excise by your mileage or a similar method. So that should be added to the cost of ownership.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 10, 2018, 06:08:51 pm
      I'd rather they threw some money at Phinergy to get aluminium air batteries for racing, assuming the Phinergy car wasn't a complete scam they already have the technology for useful power density and much higher energy density than lithium ion. Not a good battery tech for general purpose use, but ideal for racing.

      Lithium Ion is a dead end.

      Phinergy battereis (from the marketing materail) sound incredible.  Elon Musk/Teala, Cheverlot, BMW, Mercedes and Volvo all must be using these incredble battereis in their cars.  Oh, wait a minute they aren't.  Surely if they are this good they must be used in Formula E reace cars.

      Oh wait a minute they don't.  In looking on their web stie it appears they don't have any custoemrs or case studies.  I can't even find a description of the prdouct you are describing.  There web site if filled with marketing BS.  The company is making a lot of cliams, but so far the only vehicle it's been tested in has been a boat.  And that was three years ago.

      I don't get it.  What's wrong with the products that they don't have any partners or customers?



       


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on August 10, 2018, 06:26:10 pm
      It's not rechargeable at all except mechanically, the round trip efficiency is pretty bad and the water in it continually evaporates. It's piss poor for general purpose use ... but Phinergy has supposedly shown they can make a system with sufficient power density to drive a car and a large energy density.

      So it would be nice for an EV race car.

      PS. military has used aluminium air and zinc air batteries, as well as fuel cells for that matter.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 10, 2018, 06:28:14 pm
      Now you are assuming electricity will be available in large quantities.

      Of course I am. The number one way that America and the developed world consume energy in it's final form is through electricity. Hell, oil refineries are using an absurd amount of electricity as we speak. Do you think we're going to shut down the power plants and wind farms? In this post-apocalyptic, mains-starved world, where are you going to get gasoline?

      Quote
      I'm also not sure about lower operating costs. This year I visited some schools where teenagers learn to be a car mechanic. None of them where teaching about electric cars. Only one had a Prius but they didn't use it because of safety reasons. This means you'll need to rely on a specialist for servicing your EV for the upcoming decade while you can take your ICE car to the garage around the corner. I posted it earlier in this thread: the maintenance costs for an EV are higher than that of an ICE based car.

      Not to be combative, but saying something doesn't make it true. Those schools ought to adapt, and soon, because nobody's going to need their graduates in 50 years when all vehicles on the road are electric.

      Quote
      I don't get where people get the idea that an EV has lower maintenance costs. It also has a gearbox, drive shaft, brakes, motor drive electronics and (usually) a cooling/heating system for the battery. It is not like an EV is less complex if you look at the entire car.

      It's because EVs are less complex in terms of moving parts. Is an iPhone more complicated than a rotary phone? Yes, but its input electronics will probably last longer with no maintenance.

      Do electric cars have any moving lubricated seals? Not outside of the transmission, if at all. Do EVs need catalytic converters, or emissions checks, or repairs on rusty gas tanks? Nope, because they don't have any of those. Do EVs need oil changes? Nope. Do EVs need replacements on anything in their engines, like gap seals, spark plugs, fuel injectors, fuel filters, or cylinder seals? Absolutely not. Do the brakes wear out rapidly due to acceleration and deceleration? No, because you simply use the motor to recapture kinetic energy and recharge the battery. I haven't met a single person with a modern EV who has had to replace their brakes at all, even in the mountains.

      The mean lifetime of electronic circuits is tens if not hundreds of times longer than the mean lifetimes of mechanical combustion engine parts. The lifetime of brushless electric motors is hundreds of times longer than internal combustion engines for similar reasons; the maximum temperature anywhere is always <200C, there aren't any hot gases running anywhere, and there's little to no vibration or knocking of heavy metal objects moving linearly back and forth. There's simply less that can be damaged.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: labjr on August 10, 2018, 06:37:42 pm
      The reality is the cost of owning a vehicle will probably not go down. The more efficient they make things the cost seems to increase regardless. I remember when the price of real estate doubled during the 80's because more women were going to work.  Now everyone has to work 100 hours a week to own a home. Nothing was really gained by having two incomes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 10, 2018, 06:38:36 pm


      Only in some US states, where it averages $23 (I think per year). https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1116289_17-states-have-passed-extra-fees-on-evs-is-that-fair)


      Well that doesn't seem like much compared to approximately fifty cents per gallon tax on gasoline.  That would have to go up considerably.

      One might expect the government could curb their spending on pollution remediation and air quality controls once there are fewer polluting vehicles on the road  :-//
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 10, 2018, 06:41:59 pm
      The reality is the cost of owning a vehicle will probably not go down. The more efficient they make things the cost seems to increase regardless. I remember when the price of real estate doubled during the 80's because more women were going to work.  Now everyone has to work 100 hours a week to own a home. Nothing was really gained by having two incomes.

      In terms of inflation, we'd expect cars next year to cost $1000 or so more than last year, independent of technological improvement or whatever.  It isn't really that outlandish to pay a few thousand more for a vehicle that'll pay that cost back in a few years.

      The huge jump in home prices in the 80s might have been related to the 15% rate of inflation at the time, and not "all the women going to work stealing our jobs". If you're working 100 hours a week you're doing it wrong, and if you're buying a house for the hell of it you're probably wasting your money.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 10, 2018, 07:28:28 pm
      I don't get where people get the idea that an EV has lower maintenance costs. It also has a gearbox, drive shaft, brakes, motor drive electronics and (usually) a cooling/heating system for the battery. It is not like an EV is less complex if you look at the entire car.
      It's because EVs are less complex in terms of moving parts. Is an iPhone more complicated than a rotary phone? Yes, but its input electronics will probably last longer with no maintenance.
       There's simply less that can be damaged.
      Please read more about how an EV is actually constructed. Starting by the thousands of welds in the battery. Overall an EV just trades in one problem for another.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 10, 2018, 08:09:35 pm
      I'm very familiar with those welds and EV manufacture in general and I have no idea what you're implying here. Do you think spot welds are particularly vulnerable to some kind of thermal failure? They're the last thing that fails in a battery pack IME - there is literally no structural load on them. I'd take spot welds over a fuel pump any day of the week.

      If you merely don't want to discuss the topic anymore, disable notifications.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 10, 2018, 08:27:16 pm
      I'm very familiar with those welds and EV manufacture in general and I have no idea what you're implying here. Do you think spot welds are particularly vulnerable to some kind of thermal failure? They're the last thing that fails in a battery pack IME - there is literally no structural load on them. I'd take spot welds over a fuel pump any day of the week.

      If you merely don't want to discuss the topic anymore, disable notifications.
      One of my customers produces batteries for small electric vehicles so I know quite well where battery packs go wrong. One of their key selling points is their welding system and the quality control around it. Spot welds may seem so easy but there is quite a bit of science to it to get it really reliable. If a weld isn't up to the standards they scrap the entire pack. And if a weld fails in a pack they can recall the data for that weld and see if they need to tighten the tolerances. The reason they are succesful is because the Chinese manufacturers don't do this and hence deliver less reliable battery packs. After all a battery pack in a vehicle is subjected to a lot of vibrations and the cells are no exception. So yes, the spot welds do see quite a bit of abuse and have to be perfect.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 10, 2018, 08:30:59 pm
      You know something no one has mentioned is what's in crude oil and refining.  In every barrel of crude oil is gasoline, as well as jet fuel, white gas, diesel, and long hydrocarbon chains/grease. 

      It is very costly to break or elongate the hydrocarbon chains.  In the past before there was a use for gasoline the gasoline was a waste product and dumped into rivers to get rid of it.  So let's just say all ICE gas powered cars were eliminated.  Our society still needs diesel and jet fuel to function.  Bring up the questions....  what do we do with the gasoline?  Pour it into rivers again?


      Someone research this...  But in every barrel of crude, 8-10% is jet fuel, 40% is gasoline, the other 50% is heating oil, diesel etc.

      Interesting crude oil can be easily and very economically turned into alcohol for human consumption.  In the US we have a law which states all alcohol for human consumption must be radioactive.  Why?  If it is radioactive it means the alcohol was made for something which was recently living.  If it were made from crude oil the radioactivity would have all decayed away by now.  US Customs regularly finds non-radioactive alcohol being shipped to the US which is not radioactive.  And of course they seize it.  Last shipment I know of that was seized was not to long ago from Italy.  It was wine - It was not radioactive, so it was made from crude oil.
       






         
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on August 10, 2018, 08:49:02 pm
      You know something no one has mentioned is what's in crude oil and refining.  In every barrel of crude oil is gasoline, as well as jet fuel, white gas, diesel, and long hydrocarbon chains/grease. 

      It is very costly to break or elongate the hydrocarbon chains.  In the past before there was a use for gasoline the gasoline was a waste product and dumped into rivers to get rid of it.  So let's just say all ICE gas powered cars were eliminated.  Our society still needs diesel and jet fuel to function.  Bring up the questions....  what do we do with the gasoline?  Pour it into rivers again?
      Gasoline engines will not disappear overnight so it would be a gradual change that will be adapted to. Such as by the price of gasoline decreasing to slow further adoption of EVs. But it's clear that for the foreseeable future, plug in hybrids would be the solution to the range problem.
      Quote
      Interesting crude oil can be easily and very economically turned into alcohol for human consumption.  In the US we have a law which states all alcohol for human consumption must be radioactive.  Why?  If it is radioactive it means the alcohol was made for something which was recently living.  If it were made from crude oil the radioactivity would have all decayed away by now.  US Customs regularly finds non-radioactive alcohol being shipped to the US which is not radioactive.  And of course they seize it.  Last shipment I know of that was seized was not to long ago from Italy.  It was wine - It was not radioactive, so it was made from crude oil.
      Wouldn't that make it easy to cheat by adding a trace of radioactive waste?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ez24 on August 10, 2018, 09:46:04 pm
      Interesting crude oil can be easily and very economically turned into alcohol for human consumption.  In the US we have a law which states all alcohol for human consumption must be radioactive.  Why?  If it is radioactive it means the alcohol was made for something which was recently living.  If it were made from crude oil the radioactivity would have all decayed away by now.  US Customs regularly finds non-radioactive alcohol being shipped to the US which is not radioactive.  And of course they seize it.  Last shipment I know of that was seized was not to long ago from Italy.  It was wine - It was not radioactive, so it was made from crude oil.
       

      For every fact there is a counter-fact

      https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/)



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 11, 2018, 04:09:12 pm

      Quote
      Interesting crude oil can be easily and very economically turned into alcohol for human consumption.  In the US we have a law which states all alcohol for human consumption must be radioactive.  Why?  If it is radioactive it means the alcohol was made for something which was recently living.  If it were made from crude oil the radioactivity would have all decayed away by now.  US Customs regularly finds non-radioactive alcohol being shipped to the US which is not radioactive.  And of course they seize it.  Last shipment I know of that was seized was not to long ago from Italy.  It was wine - It was not radioactive, so it was made from crude oil.
      Wouldn't that make it easy to cheat by adding a trace of radioactive waste?

      Yes, but nearly impossible and it would be too costly.
      The equipment used is a mass spectrometer.  It ionizes the sample under test and plots the mass-to-charge ratio.  Mass spectrometers are can detect the minute changes in chemical composition.  As an example, after the Fukushima accident radioactive isotopes have made it across the Pacific Ocean and are detectible in California wines.  So yes, it could be done but one would have to add the correct radioactive isotopes in the correct proportions with such precession a chemist with this knowledge would be able to make far more money making synthetic cocaine or enriching Uranium to make an atomic bomb. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 11, 2018, 04:53:50 pm
      Interesting crude oil can be easily and very economically turned into alcohol for human consumption.  In the US we have a law which states all alcohol for human consumption must be radioactive.  Why?  If it is radioactive it means the alcohol was made for something which was recently living.  If it were made from crude oil the radioactivity would have all decayed away by now.  US Customs regularly finds non-radioactive alcohol being shipped to the US which is not radioactive.  And of course they seize it.  Last shipment I know of that was seized was not to long ago from Italy.  It was wine - It was not radioactive, so it was made from crude oil.
       

      For every fact there is a counter-fact

      https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/)


      Thank you for posting - Not sure what to say/think at this time.  While I respect the work and answer provided by Snopes....  Professor Muller is an incredible physicist, researcher and physics instructor with an impeccable reputation.  I have spent some time researching because I’m not sure who to believe. 
      In my mind Snopes did an excellent job in researching this question.  But then Professor Muller is known for his honestly in impeccable research.  For example, Professor Muller investigated Saddam Hussein’s ability to produce nuclear weapons after we attached.  What Muller and other physicists found was the lies and faulty intelligence the United States government told citizens.  Yes, Saddam was having Uranium enriched to create a bomb, but what Muller and the other Physicists found was the method being used was the least efficient of the three methods.  Yes, he had some weapons grade Uranium but not enough.  It was going to take him another 25-30 years before there would be enough for just one bomb.  By that time Saddam would be dead.
      Professor Mullers’ research climate change is the best we have.  Muller was funded by the Koch Brothers to research global warming/climate change.  Muller admits he was a skeptic on climate change and did not think it was occurring.  But then he said he hadn’t really looked at the evidence.

      It’s hard for me to believe Muller would make something like this up.

      I do have both of his books and unfortunately, he doesn’t give any references or sources for his claim.  One question I have is why didn’t Snopes ask Muller?  (Seems odd to me.)  Muller’s UC Berkeley and Lawrence Berkeley National Lab email addresses are easily found on the web.
      I’m so wanting to know what the answer guess I’m going to send an email to Professor Muller and ask him.  I will let you know what I find.
      Again, thanks for posting the Snopes reference.


      http://physics.berkeley.edu/people/faculty/richard-muller (http://physics.berkeley.edu/people/faculty/richard-muller)
      http://muller.lbl.gov/ (http://muller.lbl.gov/)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 11, 2018, 06:28:15 pm
      https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/)
      Reading the article you have to conclude that alcoholic beverages should be radio-active unless the label says it contains synthetic alcohol. But it is only an indirect requirement from the law because at this moment the radio-activity is the only way to determine whether the alcohol is synthetic or not. This definitely is a grey area.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on August 11, 2018, 07:05:04 pm
      If it is commercially viable to synthesize ethanol, I wonder how much of the ethanol used for fuel is actually made from oil and not from plants as they want us to believe.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 11, 2018, 07:15:35 pm
      https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/ (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/alcohol-radioactive/)
      Reading the article you have to conclude that alcoholic beverages should be radio-active unless the label says it contains synthetic alcohol. But it is only an indirect requirement from the law because at this moment the radio-activity is the only way to determine whether the alcohol is synthetic or not. This definitely is a grey area.

      Agreed.  I just sent an email to Professor Muller requesting clarification.  I will post his reply. 

      I'm guessing here.  But I suspect this migtht have been a law between the 50s - 90s Professor Muller is talking about.  And Snopes did their research in 2000 later.  So things may have changed.  Don't know.  We will just have to see what the Professor has to say.

      By the way his Physics for Future Presidents lectures are all on YouTube.  Here's a link to his Nukes lecture for 2006.  He is an incredible lecturer.  He was voted by the studnts at being the best lecturer at Cal.  If you wnat to know how easy it is to make a WWII eara nuclear bomb he explains it in full detail. 

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJbyvCmybuk&index=7&list=PLDGjfpzzwYX4NwbQThgezgAM76JrLU5wK (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJbyvCmybuk&index=7&list=PLDGjfpzzwYX4NwbQThgezgAM76JrLU5wK)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 11, 2018, 07:25:46 pm
      If it is commercially viable to synthesize ethanol, I wonder how much of the ethanol used for fuel is actually made from oil and not from plants as they want us to believe.


      Interesting question.....  I don't think much and hers's why.  It's cheap and fairly easy to ferment large quantities of corm and turn it into ethanol.  But I think it has a lot of impurities which would have to be filtered out making it to costly.


      Alcohol made from crude oil is effectively a waste product and is essentially pure.  (Since all of the other hydrocarbons chains have been removed.)  It's a relatively easy/inexpensive reaction to convert to alcohol or vinegar.  Interestingly in researching this I learned hospital grade alcohol is made from crude oil and not "natural"/recently living sources.

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 12, 2018, 12:55:38 am
      Looks like Elon and Tesla has a competitor...…   Anyone know anything about the Karma Revero? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 22, 2018, 10:22:09 pm
      Today I've seen they are actually building this near Frankfurt to power electric trucks:
      (https://www.autozeitung.de/assets/styles/article_image/public/field/image/elektro-lkw-3.jpg)
      It seems this 10km long test track is planned to be operational at the end of 2018. If they extend the system to the other lanes then cars can also use it. It would solve issues / lower costs when it comes to charging infrastructure, range and batteries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 22, 2018, 10:57:04 pm
      Looks like Elon and Tesla has a competitor...…   Anyone know anything about the Karma Revero?
      Each year there are new "Tesla killers" named by news outlets. Yet nobody is able to sell even remotely close numbers of electric cars except BYD in China. After all if you don't have the batteries needed, you cannot make a lot of electric cars with decent battery capacity. Not to say getting any profit.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 22, 2018, 11:18:42 pm
      Looks like Elon and Tesla has a competitor...…   Anyone know anything about the Karma Revero?
      Each year there are new "Tesla killers" named by news outlets. Yet nobody is able to sell even remotely close numbers of electric cars except BYD in China. After all if you don't have the batteries needed, you cannot make a lot of electric cars with decent battery capacity. Not to say getting any profit.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why)
      This review isn't very objective. The author just doesn't like the looks just like Dave doesn't like the look of GW Instek scopes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 22, 2018, 11:22:05 pm
      Looks like Elon and Tesla has a competitor...…   Anyone know anything about the Karma Revero?
      Each year there are new "Tesla killers" named by news outlets. Yet nobody is able to sell even remotely close numbers of electric cars except BYD in China. After all if you don't have the batteries needed, you cannot make a lot of electric cars with decent battery capacity. Not to say getting any profit.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why)
      This review isn't very objective. The author just doesn't like the looks just like Dave doesn't like the look of GW Instek scopes.
      Did you actually read it? It's not only looks but also performance. Small battery, high weight, slower compared even with any base model Tesla, no space on back seats, much higher price than Tesla. There is basically no reason to buy it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 22, 2018, 11:25:24 pm
      The people at which this car is targeted at don't care. They simply want to have something different then anyone else AND not get stuck when the battery is empty (which is a big plus compared to Tesla).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 22, 2018, 11:26:29 pm
      Today I've seen they are actually building this near Frankfurt to power electric trucks:
      (https://www.autozeitung.de/assets/styles/article_image/public/field/image/elektro-lkw-3.jpg)
      It seems this 10km long test track is planned to be operational at the end of 2018. If they extend the system to the other lanes then cars can also use it. It would solve issues / lower costs when it comes to charging infrastructure, range and batteries.
      Over head power for buses has a long history, but its hard to find really solid information about why these systems are eventually ripped out of most cities. The "trolley bus" system in London was still functioning when I was a kid, and seemed to work pretty well. They ripped it out in the 1960s. Right now some cities in China, like Hangzhou, have extensive overhead power for buses that seems to work pretty well. Now they are going for battery powered buses in a number of Chinese cities. I get the feeling many of these decisions have more to do with fashion than engineering.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 22, 2018, 11:27:21 pm
      The people at which this car is targeted at don't care. They simply want to have something different then anyone else.
      If only some nutjobs will buy it for looks, no way it will be competitor for Tesla.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 22, 2018, 11:45:55 pm
      https://insideevs.com/official-epa-figures-reveal-karma-revero-not-efficient-electric-range-way-advertised/ (https://insideevs.com/official-epa-figures-reveal-karma-revero-not-efficient-electric-range-way-advertised/) Also it's not efficient even compared to usual ICE, not to say hybrid.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 23, 2018, 08:17:15 am
      By the way: when I drove through Germany I spotted quite a few Hydrogen filling stations at gas stations. It seems they are rolling out a nation wide network of these. It seems Germany is not putting all their eggs in one basket.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on August 23, 2018, 09:19:47 pm
      Hydrogen as an energy storage and transport medium is dead in the water.
      Germany often invests in dead technology.
      'There's a link.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 23, 2018, 09:31:53 pm
      Elon musk rightfully called them "fool cells".
      Quote
      Former European Parliament President Pat Cox estimated that Toyota would initially lose between €50,000 to €100,000 (US$60,000 to US$133,000 at 2014 exchange rates) on each Mirai sold in 2015.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Mirai#cite_note-71 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Mirai#cite_note-71)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 23, 2018, 09:46:06 pm
      Well, there are quite a few EVs which are currently being sold at a loss as well. The Chevy Bolt for example. It just makes sense not to put all the eggs into one basket until the dust has settled. This will incur spending money to acquire market share and experience.

      Besides that it is rather foolish to try and write off all the R&D costs onto the first couple of products sold. For example: Ford spend $150 million or so on developing their Ecoboost engines. Is the first car they produced sold at a $149960000 dollar loss?  :palm:

      Hydrogen makes a lot of sense if you look at storage costs and storage efficiency for electricity in a battery. And I don't mean in a car but as part of the grid.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 23, 2018, 10:01:05 pm
      Hydrogen makes a lot of sense if you look at storage costs and storage efficiency for electricity in a battery. And I don't mean in a car but as part of the grid.
      No it does not at all. Producing, storing hydrogen from electricity and reverting it back results in about 80% energy loss. Fuel cells are very expensive, fuel production is highly inefficient, why the hell would you use hydrogen? Not to say range is not better than Tesla has, so without building a broad network of fuel stations they are pretty much useless for trips. You cannot even charge them at your home like EV. Unless you live nearby to one of a few fuel stations, hydrogen car becomes completely useless piece of paperweight.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 23, 2018, 10:03:25 pm
      Hydrogen makes a lot of sense if you look at storage costs and storage efficiency for electricity in a battery. And I don't mean in a car but as part of the grid.
      No it does not at all. Producing and storing hydrogen from electricity results in about 80% energy loss. Fuel cells are very expensive, fuel production is highly inefficient, why the hell would you use hydrogen? Not to say range is not better than Tesla has, so without building a broad network of fuel stations they are pretty much useless for trips. You cannot even charge them at your home like EV. Unless you live nearby to one of a few fuel stations, hydrogen car becomes completely useless piece of paperweight.
      Hydrogen from electricity can be done at efficiencies better than 80% so I don't know where you get the 80% loss from. Storing electricity in a battery gives you a 10% to 15% loss as well so all things considered the losses are in the same ball park.

      And regarding charging at home: not an option for me so by your definition an EV is a completely useless paperweight.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 23, 2018, 10:05:30 pm
      Hydrogen from electricity can be done at efficiencies better than 80% so I don't know where you get the 80% loss from.
      I already edited a comment to make it more clear. I meant full cycle.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 23, 2018, 10:19:39 pm
      Hydrogen from electricity can be done at efficiencies better than 80% so I don't know where you get the 80% loss from.
      I already edited a comment to make it more clear. I meant full cycle.
      The same is true for any way of transportation. Potato  Potaato
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 23, 2018, 10:28:18 pm
      The same is true for any way of transportation. Potato  Potaato
      What true? You called it efficient way of energy storage but it's not. Why would you bother to use inefficient and expensive proxy for delivering electricity for electric powertrain when you can use electricity directly with much higher efficiency? And the worst part is you don't even save on fuel compared to ICE and apparently fuel cells have lower longevity than Tesla battery.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 23, 2018, 10:37:15 pm
      Besides that it is rather foolish to try and write off all the R&D costs onto the first couple of products sold. For example: Ford spend $150 million or so on developing their Ecoboost engines. Is the first car they produced sold at a $149960000 dollar loss?  :palm:
      :palm: That is without recovering R&D. They are simply twice more expensive to make that they are sold for.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 24, 2018, 01:23:12 am

      Over head power for buses has a long history, but its hard to find really solid information about why these systems are eventually ripped out of most cities. The "trolley bus" system in London was still functioning when I was a kid, and seemed to work pretty well. They ripped it out in the 1960s. Right now some cities in China, like Hangzhou, have extensive overhead power for buses that seems to work pretty well. Now they are going for battery powered buses in a number of Chinese cities. I get the feeling many of these decisions have more to do with fashion than engineering.

      I think you will find it wasn't profitable.  In the US look up General Motors streetcar conspiracy.


      As a Yank, if I remember my Bristish histroy....  Wasn't it around 1960s that Brittan was almost on it's feet after the war.  Didn't you still have rationing inn the 1950s>

      I think you will find it wasn't profitable.  In the US look up General Motors streetcar conspiracy.

      As a Yank, if I remember my British history....  Wasn't it around 1960s that Brittan was almost on its feet after the war.  Didn't you still have rationing years after the war ended.  By the 1960s gas rationing was over, the economy was doing well and that’s when you entered a period of consumer spending on luxury items such as cars.  Ridership would have plummeted as people were now driving cars.  Similar story in the US.










      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on August 24, 2018, 04:27:39 am
      Over head power for buses has a long history, but its hard to find really solid information about why these systems are eventually ripped out of most cities. The "trolley bus" system in London was still functioning when I was a kid, and seemed to work pretty well. They ripped it out in the 1960s. Right now some cities in China, like Hangzhou, have extensive overhead power for buses that seems to work pretty well. Now they are going for battery powered buses in a number of Chinese cities. I get the feeling many of these decisions have more to do with fashion than engineering.

      They still exist here in Vancouver Canada, and there's quite an extensive system

      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ac/Vancouver_E60LFR_trolleybus_2563.jpg/800px-Vancouver_E60LFR_trolleybus_2563.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on August 24, 2018, 05:00:56 am
      Looks like Elon and Tesla has a competitor...…   Anyone know anything about the Karma Revero?
      Each year there are new "Tesla killers" named by news outlets. Yet nobody is able to sell even remotely close numbers of electric cars except BYD in China. After all if you don't have the batteries needed, you cannot make a lot of electric cars with decent battery capacity. Not to say getting any profit.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-04/karma-revero-review-this-is-a-very-bad-car-and-here-is-why)

      "But, at the very least, the Karma Revero definitely looks like you spent a lot money on it."

      Do these 'journalists' even use Word?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 24, 2018, 08:36:22 am
      Over head power for buses has a long history, but its hard to find really solid information about why these systems are eventually ripped out of most cities. The "trolley bus" system in London was still functioning when I was a kid, and seemed to work pretty well. They ripped it out in the 1960s. Right now some cities in China, like Hangzhou, have extensive overhead power for buses that seems to work pretty well. Now they are going for battery powered buses in a number of Chinese cities. I get the feeling many of these decisions have more to do with fashion than engineering.

      They still exist here in Vancouver Canada, and there's quite an extensive system
      We have plenty of trolley buses here in Riga. New units are still bought. Their number is about 75% of usual buses.


      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/Trolleybus_Solaris_on_Kalpaka_Bulvaris_IMG_2160_C.JPG)

      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/da/25._trolejbuss_Kri%C5%A1j%C4%81%C5%86a_Valdem%C4%81ra_ielas_un_Kalpaka_bulv%C4%81ra_krustojum%C4%81.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 24, 2018, 04:51:52 pm
      As a Yank, if I remember my British history....  Wasn't it around 1960s that Brittan was almost on its feet after the war.  Didn't you still have rationing years after the war ended.  By the 1960s gas rationing was over, the economy was doing well and that’s when you entered a period of consumer spending on luxury items such as cars.  Ridership would have plummeted as people were now driving cars.  Similar story in the US.
      I think you mean "as someone who never bothers to look anything up".
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: woodchips on August 24, 2018, 06:39:02 pm
      I remember reading about hydrogen power in vehicles. What seemed to be the biggest problem was actually storing the stuff. The molecule size is so small, and storage pressure so high, than no metal to metal seal would hold it, and any elastomer seal simply leaked. If used on a daily basis then the leak rate wasn't a problem, just don't expect your car to work after being in the airport carpark for 3 weeks.

      This was many years ago, is this still true, has it been sorted?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 24, 2018, 06:45:02 pm
      I remember reading about hydrogen power in vehicles. What seemed to be the biggest problem was actually storing the stuff. The molecule size is so small, and storage pressure so high, than no metal to metal seal would hold it, and any elastomer seal simply leaked. If used on a daily basis then the leak rate wasn't a problem, just don't expect your car to work after being in the airport carpark for 3 weeks.

      This was many years ago, is this still true, has it been sorted?
      The situation seems to be the same today. I am unclear what happens if you put one of these constantly venting cars in a garage, and leave it. There would appear to be a serious risk of explosion if you confine the vehicle for any length of time. I find it interesting how easy it is to hold air in simple containers like car tyres, yet the somewhat smaller molecules of hydrogen completely change the picture.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 24, 2018, 09:29:46 pm
      I remember reading about hydrogen power in vehicles. What seemed to be the biggest problem was actually storing the stuff. The molecule size is so small, and storage pressure so high, than no metal to metal seal would hold it, and any elastomer seal simply leaked. If used on a daily basis then the leak rate wasn't a problem, just don't expect your car to work after being in the airport carpark for 3 weeks.

      This was many years ago, is this still true, has it been sorted?
      The situation seems to be the same today. I am unclear what happens if you put one of these constantly venting cars in a garage, and leave it. There would appear to be a serious risk of explosion if you confine the vehicle for any length of time. I find it interesting how easy it is to hold air in simple containers like car tyres, yet the somewhat smaller molecules of hydrogen completely change the picture.
      Aren't car batteries leaking Hydrogen as well? If leaking hydrogen was such a big problem then cars wouldn't be allowed to be parked inside at all. In reality Hydrogen is a very light gas and it will float up quickly. Besides that there are ways to bind Hydrogen into a solid form and turn it back into gas quickly.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SeanB on August 24, 2018, 09:57:54 pm
      Big issue with hydrogen fuel cells is you need large amounts of platinum group metals per vehicle, and not just in a flash coat a few atoms thick like in catalytic converters, but in measurable thicknesses. As well they are exposed to atmosphere deliberately and thus are susceptible to poisoning by contaminants, like lead ( lead free fuel is not totally lead free, simply because of all the older equipment that had decades of TEL in them leaving a coat, plus the base oil is not exactly lead and heavy metal free anyway) and just degrades with time anyway. 1Troy ounce of platinum and Rhodium per vehicle does add up rather fast, and it is a cost.

      Hydrogen generation in lead acid batteries is mostly in charging, and most modern batteries have added things like antimony in the plates to recombine this to not lose water, and for larger flooded batteries there are also catalytic recombiners that reduce the venting of Hydrogen and also reduce water loss in the cells. just sitting idle they do not generate gas, while stored high pressure hydrogen, or a metal hydride, does always have gas diifusing out through the grain boundaries of the material, nothing is going to stop hydrogen, just slow it down, other than cryogenic freezing it to a slush and keeping that in a really good Dewar flask tank. 2Kelvin is not exactly something easy to achieve, despite the best attempts by space companies, as this gives a 10% improvement in fuel density over the regular liquid as it is denser.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 24, 2018, 10:09:32 pm
      1Troy ounce of platinum and Rhodium per vehicle does add up rather fast, and it is a cost.
      Still way cheaper compared to a battery.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 24, 2018, 10:18:09 pm
      [The situation seems to be the same today. I am unclear what happens if you put one of these constantly venting cars in a garage, and leave it. There would appear to be a serious risk of explosion if you confine the vehicle for any length of time. I find it interesting how easy it is to hold air in simple containers like car tyres, yet the somewhat smaller molecules of hydrogen completely change the picture.
      Aren't car batteries leaking Hydrogen as well? If leaking hydrogen was such a big problem then cars wouldn't be allowed to be parked inside at all. In reality Hydrogen is a very light gas and it will float up quickly. Besides that there are ways to bind Hydrogen into a solid form and turn it back into gas quickly.
      Most lead acid batteries in cars are sealed these days, but even unsealed ones aren't venting much hydrogen when the car is in storage, and the battery is being drained by little more than the clock and burglar alarm.

      Although hydrogen can be bound in metal hydrides and various organic matrices, all the hydrogen powered cars I have looked at use pressurised hydrogen tanks, which vent most of their contents over a week or so, as the hydrogen warms up. That's a lot of hydrogen. Of course, hydrogen rises rapidly in air. That's what these cars rely on to vent the hydrogen safely when they are in the open or in a well ventilated car park. However, that doesn't work well in a garage, where the space above the top of the door could be quite well sealed. Articles about hydrogen cars talk a lot about the venting issues, and the work in progress which might improve on this (such as entrapment in organic matrices). I haven't seen one that talks about the garage issue.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on August 24, 2018, 10:18:32 pm
      I remember reading about hydrogen power in vehicles. What seemed to be the biggest problem was actually storing the stuff. The molecule size is so small, and storage pressure so high, than no metal to metal seal would hold it, and any elastomer seal simply leaked. If used on a daily basis then the leak rate wasn't a problem, just don't expect your car to work after being in the airport carpark for 3 weeks.

      This was many years ago, is this still true, has it been sorted?
      We used to use instruments that ran off hydrogen.  We even used it in aircraft.  So, we got a tank that stored Hydrogen on Titanium powder in a lower-pressure cylinder.  I think this is what is being used in smaller vehicle Hydrogen storage tanks.
      We never had any problem with leaking, except at various fittings.  You just had to use "trouble-bubble" on all fittings whenever they were disconnected and reconnected, to spot any leakage.  The high pressure bottles were filled to 1500 PSI, I think.  The powder-storage tank ran about 300 PSI, and there was a limit on how fast you could extract the Hydrogen from it.  No problem for our little instrument, but could be an issue for a car.  The 300 PSI powder-filled tank held as much gas as the 1500 PSI high pressure bottle.

      I imagine there was SOME diffusion through the thin-walled powder-filled tank, but we sure never were aware of it, I would take a wild guess and say it would take many months to empty out.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 24, 2018, 10:19:52 pm
      I remember reading about hydrogen power in vehicles. What seemed to be the biggest problem was actually storing the stuff. The molecule size is so small, and storage pressure so high, than no metal to metal seal would hold it, and any elastomer seal simply leaked. If used on a daily basis then the leak rate wasn't a problem, just don't expect your car to work after being in the airport carpark for 3 weeks.

      This was many years ago, is this still true, has it been sorted?

      Problem with Hydrogen is it is 4 times less energy dense than gasoline.  One would need a hydrogen tank 4 times the size of a gas tank to travel the same amount of miles.

      When it comes to energy density one just can't beat gasoline except with nucelar.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 24, 2018, 10:36:35 pm
      I remember reading about hydrogen power in vehicles. What seemed to be the biggest problem was actually storing the stuff. The molecule size is so small, and storage pressure so high, than no metal to metal seal would hold it, and any elastomer seal simply leaked. If used on a daily basis then the leak rate wasn't a problem, just don't expect your car to work after being in the airport carpark for 3 weeks.

      This was many years ago, is this still true, has it been sorted?

      Problem with Hydrogen is it is 4 times less energy dense than gasoline.  One would need a hydrogen tank 4 times the size of a gas tank to travel the same amount of miles.

      When it comes to energy density one just can't beat gasoline except with nuclear.
      Hydrogen is less energy dense by volume, but more energy dense by mass. The snag right now with hydrogen's density is the substantial mass of the storage system, so the system level mass is rather high, even though they are using a storage system specifically designed to keep the mass down - e.g. they don't use the kind of enormously thick and heavy tank which could hold the hydrogen if it fully warmed to the environmental temperature. There is ongoing work which might substantially change that picture, but there is no certainty. Most entrapment schemes either cost a fortune, are heavy, need unreasonable temperatures to release the hydrogen, or combine all three problems.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 24, 2018, 10:37:09 pm
      Any one hearing of deaths from PHEV exhaust?  This almost happened to us.  Wife came home parked the PHEV in the garage.  She was monetarily distracted by our kids and the dog.  She exited the car, and plugged in the cable to charge the car. 

      I walked by the garage and what I thought was the fan for the charger, but it sounded funny.  I then noticed the car was still in "running" mode and the fan sound was actually the engine running.  I thought if the charger cable were plugged PHEVs would detect the connection and power off the car.  But they don't.

      According  to my wife there have been half a dozzen or so deaths from CO posioning for PHEV cars accidently left running in peopls garages.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 24, 2018, 10:40:50 pm
      Any one hearing of deaths from PHEV exhaust?  This almost happened to us.  Wife came home parked the PHEV in the garage.  She was monetarily distracted by our kids and the dog.  She exited the car, and plugged in the cable to charge the car. 

      I walked by the garage and what I thought was the fan for the charger, but it sounded funny.  I then noticed the car was still in "running" mode and the fan sound was actually the engine running.  I thought if the charger cable were plugged PHEVs would detect the connection and power off the car.  But they don't.

      According  to my wife there have been half a dozzen or so deaths from CO posioning for PHEV cars accidently left running in peopls garages.

      How is this any different from a careless person walking away from any other kind of car without putting it in a safe state -  i.e. in park (or handbrake on for a manual car) and with the engine shut off?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on August 24, 2018, 11:50:38 pm
      Any one hearing of deaths from PHEV exhaust?  This almost happened to us.  Wife came home parked the PHEV in the garage.  She was monetarily distracted by our kids and the dog.  She exited the car, and plugged in the cable to charge the car. 

      I walked by the garage and what I thought was the fan for the charger, but it sounded funny.  I then noticed the car was still in "running" mode and the fan sound was actually the engine running.  I thought if the charger cable were plugged PHEVs would detect the connection and power off the car.  But they don't.

      According  to my wife there have been half a dozzen or so deaths from CO posioning for PHEV cars accidently left running in peopls garages.

      How is this any different from a careless person walking away from any other kind of car without putting it in a safe state -  i.e. in park (or handbrake on for a manual car) and with the engine shut off?
      The difference is it's a crappy design. No PHEV should run ICE while charging.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: chris_leyson on August 25, 2018, 12:08:42 am
      Kalasnikov just debuted the CV-1, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45292028 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45292028) I think the retro look is cool. It will be interesting to see what battery technology they are using. Will it do 450 BHP like the Tesla model S, maybe not but who cares as long as it gets you from A to B.

      Anybody been watching Formula E ? I haven't, it's not broadcast in the UK. These are the guys developing state of the art electric drive trains and battery technology, but who gives a damn ? The general public couldn't care less about motor racing and petrol heads haven't got a clue about direct drive. It might take a while longer for electric cars to become mainstream because of ignorence and a lack of interest.

      When electric cars become cheaper to run than internal combustion engines then it will become mainstream but you have to carry a gallon of fuel and a generator to top up the batteries just in case.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on August 25, 2018, 02:03:38 am

      Aren't car batteries leaking Hydrogen as well? If leaking hydrogen was such a big problem then cars wouldn't be allowed to be parked inside at all. In reality Hydrogen is a very light gas and it will float up quickly. Besides that there are ways to bind Hydrogen into a solid form and turn it back into gas quickly.

      Batteries generate hydrogen when they are overcharged and that's lead batteries.  Normally wouldn't be a problem unless there is a malfunction and you left the car running. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: JuliaAaron on August 26, 2018, 03:44:27 pm
      Hehe wow you know while reading your topic I remembered an article about self-driving cars, unusual :-+ Look, so many benefits described (https://tranio.com/articles/self-driving-mobile-homes-how-driverless-cars-will-change-the-property-market_5354/ (https://tranio.com/articles/self-driving-mobile-homes-how-driverless-cars-will-change-the-property-market_5354/)), but I've never met a person who owns it really and what's more, finds useful  :-// Interesting to see this all in practice...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 26, 2018, 04:30:53 pm
      Hehe wow you know while reading your topic I remembered an article about self-driving cars, unusual :-+ Look, so many benefits described (https://tranio.com/articles/self-driving-mobile-homes-how-driverless-cars-will-change-the-property-market_5354/ (https://tranio.com/articles/self-driving-mobile-homes-how-driverless-cars-will-change-the-property-market_5354/)), but I've never met a person who owns it really and what's more, finds useful  :-// Interesting to see this all in practice...
      Written in July 2017, that article says Singapore has driverless taxis. The reality is they were, and are still, in the phase of having experimental autonomous vehicles operating in Singapore, with a driver to intervene if needed. They hope to start charging for rides in these vehicles later this year, still with a driver to intervene if needed. Its not clear if this represents them being pretty happy with the system, or being desperate for some revenue. This article is far from being alone in making grandiose claims for systems still in an experimental state. This seems to be what passes for journalism these day.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 26, 2018, 06:24:22 pm
      Driverless cars are going through the same hype as Bitcoin.  Notice how driverless cars aren't in the news anymore?

      Driverless cars like Bitcoin is capitalism at its finest.  Find some product/technology which sounds like it will change the world.
      Convince people this is the investment opportunity of their lifetime.
      Microprint and lie to people about the investment opportunity.  Con them into believing they will become unbelievable rich by investing.
      Take their money before they realize it’s a scam.
      Then when the product fails and everyone has lot their money, rinse and repeat.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: glarsson on August 26, 2018, 07:30:44 pm
      You don't have to invest. The alternative is socialism where the state takes your money and invest in stupid projects like solar roadways.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 26, 2018, 07:48:47 pm
      Hehe wow you know while reading your topic I remembered an article about self-driving cars, unusual :-+ Look, so many benefits described (https://tranio.com/articles/self-driving-mobile-homes-how-driverless-cars-will-change-the-property-market_5354/ (https://tranio.com/articles/self-driving-mobile-homes-how-driverless-cars-will-change-the-property-market_5354/)), but I've never met a person who owns it really and what's more, finds useful  :-// Interesting to see this all in practice...
      I think you are in the wrong thread here. Anyway I'm pretty sure I'll own a self driving car before an electric one.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 26, 2018, 09:35:11 pm
      Hehe wow you know while reading your topic I remembered an article about self-driving cars, unusual :-+ Look, so many benefits described (https://tranio.com/articles/self-driving-mobile-homes-how-driverless-cars-will-change-the-property-market_5354/ (https://tranio.com/articles/self-driving-mobile-homes-how-driverless-cars-will-change-the-property-market_5354/)), but I've never met a person who owns it really and what's more, finds useful  :-// Interesting to see this all in practice...
      I think you are in the wrong thread here. Anyway I'm pretty sure I'll own a self driving car before an electric one.

      And you will probably be dead before I will.  I already own an electric vehicle and thought I would be in a self-driving car before an electric car also.  But then look at the driving record of self-driving cars.  Based on the driving record of self-driving cars in the state where I live for insurance purposes they would be in the kamikaze rate category.  And if they were in on more accident lose their license for reckless driving.

         
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 27, 2018, 06:28:50 am
      The other reason that self-driving cars are involved in accidents is because the other cars are not self-driving and unpredictable in their behavior.
      The only thing more unpredictable than a human driver is a drunk human driver ;)
      Proof: humans do not always obey the road laws, can you imagine that ? There are laws and they don't obey them, tsssss how can you write an algorithm to handle that except never start the car in the first place.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 27, 2018, 10:47:18 am
      The other reason that self-driving cars are involved in accidents is because the other cars are not self-driving and unpredictable in their behavior.
      The only thing more unpredictable than a human driver is a drunk human driver ;)
      Proof: humans do not always obey the road laws, can you imagine that ? There are laws and they don't obey them, tsssss how can you write an algorithm to handle that except never start the car in the first place.
      If we didn't skirt around the road laws every minor traffic works would cause congestion. I'm interested in how these autonomous cars manage to consistently complete journeys through cities where minor blockages are occurring all the time.

      Human qualities are a mixed bag. Humans are easily distracted, but they are also capable of moderately complex decision making, even when they need to decide very quickly. I wonder how often a dumb autonomous car has encountered a human driver, and an accident was avoided by the actions of the human driver?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on August 27, 2018, 09:20:27 pm
      The other reason that self-driving cars are involved in accidents is because the other cars are not self-driving and unpredictable in their behavior.
      The only thing more unpredictable than a human driver is a drunk human driver ;)
      Proof: humans do not always obey the road laws, can you imagine that ? There are laws and they don't obey them, tsssss how can you write an algorithm to handle that except never start the car in the first place.


      Self drving cars do not drive in a vaccum of self-drioving cars.  They have to be aware of kids, small animals, fall rocks, fallen trees, washed out roads, bridges, flooded road, pot-holes not to mention what happens with when selfdriving cars are in mud, slush and snow?  In otherwords real world conditions.

      Don't you think self-drviing cars should be able to tell the difference between the road and a tree?  If you are so confidnet they work well would you like to get in a car and drive the same road where the computer drove head-on towards a tree?  So far only one person was killed.  You could give it a try and see if you are number 2.  Yet again maybe not.  Questions is would you like to test it?



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 28, 2018, 08:19:39 am
      Oh I am not saying that they are there yet.
      They have a long way to go and AFAIK there are no autonomous driving cars yet, the human driver should still be alert and have control.
      So when you say drive into a tree, where was the human driver ? Darwin award ?

      In the long run I am convinced that autonomous cars will be much safer than human driven cars and able to respond much faster to sudden events as kids crossing the street.
      IMO one of the worst possible conditions to test autonomous cars is with a lot of human drivers around, I really don't understand that they allowed this , esp. when you read the other topic how for instance Tesla develops its software, ouch.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 28, 2018, 09:03:36 am
      Oh I am not saying that they are there yet.
      They have a long way to go and AFAIK there are no autonomous driving cars yet, the human driver should still be alert and have control.
      So when you say drive into a tree, where was the human driver ? Darwin award ?

      In the long run I am convinced that autonomous cars will be much safer than human driven cars and able to respond much faster to sudden events as kids crossing the street.
      IMO one of the worst possible conditions to test autonomous cars is with a lot of human drivers around, I really don't understand that they allowed this , esp. when you read the other topic how for instance Tesla develops its software, ouch.
      I don't think many well informed smart people would deny that eventually it is highly likely that autonomous systems will do anything better than a human. What is relevant right now is what the crude automated driving systems being built today, for deployment in the near term, might achieve.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on August 29, 2018, 02:45:58 pm
      Europe has sold over 1 million EVs now and sales growth rate continues to accelerate. 37% of light vehicle sales in Norway.  (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-euefta-plug-in-vehicle-volumes-2/)

      Impressive.

      Looks like they have already reached “mainstream” status in several countries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on August 29, 2018, 03:28:55 pm
      Europe has sold over 1 million EVs now and sales growth rate continues to accelerate. 37% of light vehicle sales in Norway.  (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-euefta-plug-in-vehicle-volumes-2/)

      Impressive.

      Looks like they have already reached “mainstream” status in several countries.
      They seem to be mainstream in just 2 countries - Norway and Iceland, neither of which are very big markets. In every other European country sales are still a very small percentage.

      I find it interesting how diverse the sales of electric vehicles in Europe actually is. We keep hearing about the same few models over and over - mostly the Teslas, the Leaf and the Zoe - but a considerable percentage of electric cars are the less prominent models.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on August 29, 2018, 03:34:15 pm
      What is relevant right now is what the crude automated driving systems being built today, for deployment in the near term, might achieve.
      Not too much, the Google car would fail a driversexam on more than four critical points.

      Impressive.
      Looks like they have already reached “mainstream” status in several countries.
      No I don't agree since these salesfigures are artificially reached by billions of Norwegian crowns subsidized government money.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on August 29, 2018, 04:11:36 pm
      Europe has sold over 1 million EVs now and sales growth rate continues to accelerate. 37% of light vehicle sales in Norway.  (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-euefta-plug-in-vehicle-volumes-2/)
      Impressive.
      It is not. That is less than 0.5%. And as Kjelt noted there are only two countries with only a few people in them (not even half the number of people in the Netherlands!) where government subsidies artificially increase EV sales.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on August 29, 2018, 04:25:35 pm
      The Norwegian state owns 1.4 % of Tesla Motors, IIANM.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 11, 2018, 09:21:14 am
      This guy has a Model 3 and says that the charge efficiency isn't 85%, but ~ 80%:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0MjZOR89Fk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0MjZOR89Fk)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on September 11, 2018, 02:32:27 pm
      He doesn't look like he's complaining about paying $0.02/mile.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 11, 2018, 02:51:35 pm
      OTOH he's paid in advance for several hundred thousand miles of "fuel"...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 11, 2018, 03:37:53 pm
      Only $20 in Supercharging stations?  Appears the guy doesn't get out much.  Only uses hist car to drive to and from work?

      Wonder where he lives.  Electricity and gas prices are really low.  Where I in California we are on TOU billing for electricity.  So, we could be paying as little as double as what he's paying for electricity to almost 10 times as much.  As for gasoline we are paying about $1.00 more per gallon.

      For people in California he's making a good argument that ICE is far less expensive than an EV. For Californians using his actual data we would spend $1,800 for gasoline and I'm not using Costco gas prices here. 

      As for the electricity it depends on charging times.  But let's just say he changes only during Peak hours - The electricity would cost $1,866.50.  If charging during partial-peak about $,1000 and off-peak, $505.


      The car he was comparing it with only gets 21 MPG means he was driving a gas guzzler.  The car I drive averages 30 MPG which is sure making the Tesla EV a complete was.  Now electricity prices are to continue to rise in California whereas gas prices have pretty much remained the same for many years.

      He’s sure making the argument for California’s EVs aren’t worth it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 11, 2018, 05:44:52 pm
      The car he was comparing it with only gets 21 MPG means he was driving a gas guzzler. 

      Any car with equivalent performance to his Tesla would be lucky to get 21 MPG

      Quote
      Now electricity prices are to continue to rise in California whereas gas prices have pretty much remained the same for many years.

      Here's the actual data:

      California historical electricity prices:  Source (http://oneenergywind.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/california-electricity-rate-historical-analysis-1990-2014.pdf)

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=520805;image)

      California historical gasoline prices: Source (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0R_PTE_SCA_DPG&f=W)

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=520811;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 11, 2018, 05:57:46 pm
      The car he was comparing it with only gets 21 MPG means he was driving a gas guzzler. 

      Any car with equivalent performance to his Tesla would be lucky to get 21 MPG

      Quote
      Now electricity prices are to continue to rise in California whereas gas prices have pretty much remained the same for many years.

      Here's the actual data:

      California historical electricity prices:  Source (http://oneenergywind.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/california-electricity-rate-historical-analysis-1990-2014.pdf)

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=520805;image)

      California historical gasoline prices: Source (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0R_PTE_SCA_DPG&f=W)

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=520811;image)

      Bot sure where you are getting your California electricity prices, they are way off.  I wish we had rates as low as you claim.  Those rates need to be increased by 50% or more to be accurate for California.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 11, 2018, 06:19:27 pm
      Bot sure where you are getting your California electricity prices, they are way off. 

       ::) I clearly linked my source in the post.

      Digging further - that link gets it's data from the EIA which is THE source for reliable statistics on all things energy related.

      This EIA web page  (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/) has links to all types of detailed state data. There you will find this Excel file  (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/avgprice_annual.xlsx) which will give you all the gory details of historical electricity prices by state.

      You may pay higher prices but what you pay may not be representative of other parts of California.  I know for a fact that electricity prices vary greatly across the state. So do gasoline prices.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ez24 on September 11, 2018, 07:01:16 pm
      Bot sure where you are getting your California electricity prices, they are way off.  I wish we had rates as low as you claim.  Those rates need to be increased by 50% or more to be accurate for California.

      In San Diego Calif for the last two months my cost has been $0.32 per KW  (I thought it was 0.45 because I saw that on their web page -so I am happy  :palm: ).  My guess if I had an EV I would be paying $0.45.  I used about 450 KW a month and ran the AC for about 10 hours.

      A lot of times the quoted electric price does not include other electric charges like transmission charges ( the last time I looked it was half the total).  I use my total cost.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 11, 2018, 07:05:33 pm
      Bot sure where you are getting your California electricity prices, they are way off. 

       ::) I clearly linked my source in the post.

      Digging further - that link gets it's data from the EIA which is THE source for reliable statistics on all things energy related.

      This EIA web page  (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/) has links to all types of detailed state data. There you will find this Excel file  (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/avgprice_annual.xlsx) which will give you all the gory details of historical electricity prices by state.

      You may pay higher prices but what you pay may not be representative of other parts of California.  I know for a fact that electricity prices vary greatly across the state. So do gasoline prices.

      Sorry not trying to ding you at all.  And YES, electricity prices greatly vary in California as do the rate plans.  I am a PG&E customer, and depending on the rate plan, one pays either as little as $0.11 kwhr or as much as $0.85 kwhr.  I'm on a rate plan where today, the rate will change 5 times today.


      Sure we can average all of the rates, but what useful informaiton does that provide?






      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: bicycleguy on September 11, 2018, 10:37:01 pm
      IMHO one of the errors with electric cars is that they emphasize on range left instead of charge left. It is simply impossible to calculate the remaining range accurate enough to be meaningful in practical circumstances. Just like ICE cars electric cars should show remaining charge as the primary indicator and range is just some kind of gross guesstimate.
      HO ? really.

      My 2014 Chevy Spark is spot on on range estimating.  Being a nurd, I always reset the trip odometer after a charge and while driving compare the current range estimate plus odometer with the original estimate.  As long as I drive in a consistent manner they are equal.  If I encounter some ICE vehicles that need a lesson in acceleration the range estimator immediately punishes my transgressions.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 11, 2018, 11:45:49 pm
      IMHO one of the errors with electric cars is that they emphasize on range left instead of charge left. It is simply impossible to calculate the remaining range accurate enough to be meaningful in practical circumstances. Just like ICE cars electric cars should show remaining charge as the primary indicator and range is just some kind of gross guesstimate.
      HO ? really.

      My 2014 Chevy Spark is spot on on range estimating.  Being a nurd, I always reset the trip odometer after a charge and while driving compare the current range estimate plus odometer with the original estimate.  As long as I drive in a consistent manner they are equal.  If I encounter some ICE vehicles that need a lesson in acceleration the range estimator immediately punishes my transgressions.

      Sounds like you don't have very much fun when you drive.  Try flooring it once in a while and have some fun while driving.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Neilm on September 12, 2018, 07:17:32 pm
      Wonder where he lives.  Electricity and gas prices are really low.  Where I in California we are on TOU billing for electricity.  So, we could be paying as little as double as what he's paying for electricity to almost 10 times as much.  As for gasoline we are paying about $1.00 more per gallon.

      Lucky you - I filled up my car at £1.32 / liter. Which (if I remember the conversion correctly) is about $5 per US gallon.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 12, 2018, 07:46:29 pm
      Wonder where he lives.  Electricity and gas prices are really low.  Where I in California we are on TOU billing for electricity.  So, we could be paying as little as double as what he's paying for electricity to almost 10 times as much.  As for gasoline we are paying about $1.00 more per gallon.

      Lucky you - I filled up my car at £1.32 / liter. Which (if I remember the conversion correctly) is about $5 per US gallon.


      Sounds about right.  But to us Americans when we see 1.32 we think you are getting a much better deal.  By any chance next time I'm in your country could you make change for me?  Would you have two £20.00 for my $10.00?

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 12, 2018, 08:31:07 pm
      Shell V-Power is at 1.35 €/litre here.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: The Soulman on September 12, 2018, 09:33:06 pm
      Shell V-Power is at 1.35 €/litre here.

      €1,75 here.  :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on September 13, 2018, 06:25:50 am
      The California gas taxes are going up.  One of these days EV's will have to start paying gas taxes to pay for the roads and all the boondoggles. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on September 13, 2018, 06:59:48 am
      I don't drop in here much, can't keep up with 70+ threads.
      Find a supercharger near you, and ask (if they are not eating nearby) to talk, or even test drive the car. I always ask to show license and insurance cards.

      I NEVER thought my wife would go for one. She went with relatives to Boston for a show, and noticed a Tesla showroom. Their are no dealerships to hassle with.

      No test drive, but got in one, and loved it. Ordered a test drive for months later. Bought the cheapest one with a couple extras, glass roof, no air suspension, 2wd, etc.
      sticker on window says 69,000 doll hairs. 99 or 100 MPG equivalent epa, forgot which was which.

      Tesla came from boston area to fix license plate bracket in my driveway, in Maine. no charge. Cool service truck, racks of tool drawers, air. Too bad was a Ford. (I think they are now just one tick above being a junk bond for investment now.) Probably use the Tesla pickup when it comes out. Maybe the Semi?

      Funny thing is Honda mechanic that pounced me leaving my driveway a few weeks ago in my Element had a Ford, but only because he was recently hired was eyeing a red cop magnet honda to buy, then I showed him my S.

      Replaced my killer windbags in 90 degree humid weather. Major job. I didn't notice till later a half dozen screws left on the floor, but was very competent and careful to be good to the car, saying some of the plastic parts had to be banged in with plastic and rubber mallets, etc.

      These are called "barrel bolts" big barrel to throw stuff in after a repair in the middle of the garage.

      Not bragging, we are retired, will die with our last car in the driveway.

      My excuse? An original star trek with spock's father saying why he married an earth woman: It was the logical thing to do.

      No oil changes, radiator fluids, conventional brake pads, high performance stuff like on Maserati and stuff but lasting 100 - to 200k because the regeneration does most of the braking.

      Al U min ium body and suspension. rust killed all my cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 13, 2018, 08:11:36 am
      No oil changes, radiator fluids, conventional brake pads, high performance stuff like on Maserati and stuff but lasting 100 - to 200k because the regeneration does most of the braking.

      Sorry but Tesla's got oil and radiator fluids to change too just like any other car, and (hygroscopic) brake fluid and A/C gas and windshield washer and air filter and etc, and in Europe most cars are manual and most of the braking we do with the engine (like your Tesla) and our cars weight much less than +2 tons (your +7 thousand cells 500kg battery is like carrying 5 people always) so our brake pads last ~ as much as on the Tesla, and our tyres last longer for the same reason.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 13, 2018, 10:43:34 am
      and in Europe most cars are manual and most of the braking we do with the engine (like your Tesla)
      In Europe most small cars are manual, but anything as big as a Tesla is usually automatic.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 13, 2018, 12:18:10 pm
      and in Europe most cars are manual and most of the braking we do with the engine (like your Tesla)
      In Europe most small cars are manual, but anything as big as a Tesla is usually automatic.

      But most european automatic gearboxes can and do engine brake when lifting the accelerator unlike the most common american ones with fluid coupled torque converters.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 13, 2018, 12:35:11 pm
      and in Europe most cars are manual and most of the braking we do with the engine (like your Tesla)
      In Europe most small cars are manual, but anything as big as a Tesla is usually automatic.

      But most european automatic gearboxes can and do engine brake when lifting the accelerator unlike the most common american ones with fluid coupled torque converters.
      Most European automatics still have torque converters. Dual clutch gearboxes certainly don't dominate. Cars with torque converters give engine braking. That's why you have the ability to force an automatic into a lower gear with the gearstick - its how you control the car well on steep downhill runs. Of course, most automatics also have the ability to force the car into a lower gear with kickdown, to improve overtaking performance. That braking effect is one of the things which makes a torque converter different from a fluid flywheel.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 13, 2018, 01:18:20 pm
      AFAIK, since the 70s, most (like, ~ all) of the american cars mount turbo-hydramatic (and derivative) transmissions with fluid coupled torque converters which do not engine brake when you lift off the accelerator while in D.

      OTOH, in Europe only a tiny % of the cars are automatics, and currently only a tiny % of that tiny % are hydramatics => most (as in ~all) european cars (automatic or not) can and do engine brake when you lift off the accelerator.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 13, 2018, 01:37:59 pm
      AFAIK, since the 70s, most (like, ~ all) of the american cars mount turbo-hydramatic (and derivative) transmissions with fluid coupled torque converters which do not engine brake when you lift off the accelerator while in D.

      OTOH, in Europe only a tiny % of the cars are automatics, and currently only a tiny % of that tiny % are hydramatics => most (as in ~all) european cars (automatic or not) can and do engine brake when you lift off the accelerator.
      I've driven quite a few rental cars in the US, both American and Asian cars. I've never had one what didn't engine brake when I lifted the gas pedal. Turbo-Hydramatic is a GM commercial name for their gearboxes with a torque converter and a planetary geartrain. If it uses a torque converter it engine brakes. The only thing being in D affects is it allows all gears to be used automatically, while the other settings limit the range of gears. If you want heavy engine braking on a steep slope you need to prevent the automatic selection of the highest one or two gears.

      You seem to greatly underestimate the number of automatic cars in Europe. Sure, most small cars are manual, but larger cars are mostly automatics. Quite a few big cars are not even offered with a manual gearbox.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on September 13, 2018, 02:03:11 pm
      The California gas taxes are going up.  One of these days EV's will have to start paying gas taxes to pay for the roads and all the boondoggles.

      For sure. They won't be called gas taxes of course.
      We already have something prepared for this in France. The tax that used to apply to petrol-based energy products only has changed to a tax on any energy product a few years ago. I believe the same happened in some other european countries. For now, most developed countries use various incentives to get people to switch to electric vehicles, so that still looks like a "bargain" in energy costs, but once the user base is significant enough, the incentives will go away. Obviously.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 13, 2018, 02:18:05 pm
      If it uses a torque converter it engine brakes.

      Nope, not in D, or perhaps ever so slightly but... there's a reason why you can't push-start a turbo hydramatic: the pump is driven by the engine not by the output shaft, when you lift rpms go down and the coupling decouples.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 13, 2018, 02:55:34 pm
      AFAIK, since the 70s, most (like, ~ all) of the american cars mount turbo-hydramatic (and derivative) transmissions with fluid coupled torque converters which do not engine brake when you lift off the accelerator while in D.

      OTOH, in Europe only a tiny % of the cars are automatics, and currently only a tiny % of that tiny % are hydramatics => most (as in ~all) european cars (automatic or not) can and do engine brake when you lift off the accelerator.
      You seem to greatly underestimate the number of automatic cars in Europe. Sure, most small cars are manual, but larger cars are mostly automatics. Quite a few big cars are not even offered with a manual gearbox.
      Which ones? Even the vans I have driven where all manual.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 13, 2018, 04:11:10 pm
      AFAIK, since the 70s, most (like, ~ all) of the american cars mount turbo-hydramatic (and derivative) transmissions with fluid coupled torque converters which do not engine brake when you lift off the accelerator while in D.

      OTOH, in Europe only a tiny % of the cars are automatics, and currently only a tiny % of that tiny % are hydramatics => most (as in ~all) european cars (automatic or not) can and do engine brake when you lift off the accelerator.
      You seem to greatly underestimate the number of automatic cars in Europe. Sure, most small cars are manual, but larger cars are mostly automatics. Quite a few big cars are not even offered with a manual gearbox.
      Which ones? Even the vans I have driven where all manual.
      Automatic vans seem pretty rare all over the world, although many buses are automatic. I said large cars. Look at the bigger cars from Volvo, BMW, Audi, etc. The sportier ones are generally available as a manual. The more sedate versions tend to be automatic only, or manual is a factory order only that you have a considerable wait for.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 13, 2018, 04:13:07 pm
      If it uses a torque converter it engine brakes.

      Nope, not in D, or perhaps ever so slightly but... there's a reason why you can't push-start a turbo hydramatic: the pump is driven by the engine not by the output shaft, when you lift rpms go down and the coupling decouples.
      The push start issue is because you need the engine running to wind up the torque converter. That is completely different from the situation where the engine is running, but running slower than the wheels. Have you ever driven an automatic car down a steep hill? They engine brake.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 13, 2018, 04:19:25 pm
      If it uses a torque converter it engine brakes.

      Nope, not in D, or perhaps ever so slightly but... there's a reason why you can't push-start a turbo hydramatic: the pump is driven by the engine not by the output shaft, when you lift rpms go down and the coupling decouples.
      The push start issue is because you need the engine running to wind up the torque converter. That is completely different from the situation where the engine is running, but running slower than the wheels. Have you ever driven an automatic car down a steep hill? They engine brake.

      Some cars with automatic transmissions can be push started.  I had a Ford with a dead battery and was able to push start.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 13, 2018, 04:21:36 pm
      Have you ever driven an automatic car down a steep hill? They engine brake.

      Yes I have, and a Buick (hydramatic) doesn't, not at all in D, yes in L2 and L3, but a Mercedes Benz GLC does, even in D (but brakes harder upon lift in the "sport" setting).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 13, 2018, 04:26:38 pm
      Some cars with automatic transmissions can be push started.  I had a Ford with a dead battery and was able to push start.

      Yep, most modern ones can because they're a sort of robotic manual gearbox with clutches, and hydramatics before the 70s could be push started too because were specially designed to be so, but the many many millions in between the 70s and the most modern ones can not.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CCitizenTO on September 13, 2018, 07:41:32 pm
      Today, as the range is a 95% solved issue, the cost advantage is on a factor 3 on the side of the electric, so it will take 5-10 years for electrics to mainly replace gas.
      That is a nice dream but it ain't gonna happen that quick and it might not even happen at all.

      1) For many people a car is a big ticket item so they buy one which fits all their needs. This means that the car they buy also needs to be fit for usage on 0.1% of the trips they make. Range is what kills an electric car here. Local constraints like taxation on ownership and limited parking space drive the need to buy a car which fits all usages.

      Electrics will be fairly niche for the foreseeable future barring some drastic price drop (don't see that happening bar a new battery innovation), massive government subsidies, or a huge oil shock.
      Convenience is everything to most people. You simply can't beat topping up a tank with 500km+ range in a couple of minutes at a petrol station every couple of square km.
      Imagine what would be needed if say 80% of the population switched to electric cars overnight, you wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere.
      And even if they replaced every current petrol pump with an electric charger (ignoring grid infrastructure issues etc), you still wouldn't be able to find a spare charging port anywhere because people would need to leave their cars there for much longer than currently available.
      I imagine that once people with an electric car have to experience having to wait 15-20 min at a charging station for a "quick top up", they will likely regret buying one.

      I work in a warehouse environment where electric vehicles are used (Ride-On Pallet Jacks, Forklifts and Personnel Transporters). The amount of time it takes to swap a battery could be drastically reduced and would allow a swap of a dead to a 100% fully charged battery in minutes with the right infrastructure in place. When the battery dies on my machine (basically drops below 15-20%) the forks wont raise anymore so you drive to the battery room and get a battery change. Takes them less than 5 minutes to pull the old battery and shove a new one in and I'm pretty much good for the rest of the day.

      Think of it like the Propane Cylinder swap setups that are commonplace now. Do that and the electric car becomes a must have overnight.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on September 14, 2018, 05:53:32 pm
      Quote
      Takes them less than 5 minutes to pull the old battery and shove a new one in and I'm pretty much good for the rest of the day.
      it'S a nice idea, and useful for some markets like motorcycles.
      Better Place and Tesla pioneered that idea a few years ago, but both found out that it's not really economically practical for normal passenger cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 14, 2018, 07:44:43 pm
      Quote
      Takes them less than 5 minutes to pull the old battery and shove a new one in and I'm pretty much good for the rest of the day.
      it'S a nice idea, and useful for some markets like motorcycles.
      This is already done for small electric motorbikes you can rent in a city. They keep track of the charge remotely and when motorcycle's battery is almost empty they exhange it for a full battery.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on September 15, 2018, 02:50:30 am
      My s has close 250 or close to 300 miles range each morning. fully charged from 2 15 amp 120 volt receptacles in my garage. for a year and a half, have the 50 amp 240 volt wire and receptacles awaiting install.

      Since not needing it yet, am reworking all the poor electric wiring that happened to pass inspection when buying our 1985 house in 2003.

      Line and grounded wires reversed on receptacles, kitchen remodeling put way too many circuits on a breaker, found overheating wires on a breaker rated for one wire, but had 2, etc.

      As of 2017 NEC, need GFCI on 220 now, although the Tesla has it in it's cord.

      So no rush for inspection, and no worries selling the house down the road.

      First couple weeks ran it on 120 volt garage outlet.

      S Has more range than my Honda Element on a tank, and The S is full every morning. My E have to waste gas going to a gas station often at 22 MPG. S is equivalent to 100 MPG.

      The S hasn't made a dent in our electric bill, and we use oil for heat and a small propane cooktop. Think the electric oven and air conditioners get lost in the dithering.

      Brake fluid is scheduled every 3 years.

      Differential every year maybe a quart or so.

      Coolant for battery and a/c is low pressure and tiny water pumps, like those you might put on end of electric drill.

      Try watching "now you know" on youtube.







      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on September 15, 2018, 07:42:35 am
      The S is a nice car with good range, treally what an EV should be like.

      One problem it costs over €100000 here, more then €70000 more then my current car that can drive 960km on one tank, and for €70000 I can buy 43.750 litres of petrol where I can drive 729.000 kms with or buy three cars.
      Let me think about it, but I guess I can't afford to be an environmentally friendly driver at the moment. ;)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 15, 2018, 08:40:38 am
      Try watching "now you know" on youtube.

      Wow, THANKS! That channel's a gold mine! We shall review the (80%) charging losses / kWh/km / kWh/mile figures now. LOL.

      https://youtu.be/JpS1XoPYqO4?t=0m1s (https://youtu.be/JpS1XoPYqO4?t=0m1s)

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=523727;image)

      (12[A]*107[V]*1[h])/2[miles] => 642 Wh/mile = 39.8 kWh/100 km

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=523733;image)

      (15[A]*120[V]*1[h])/3[miles] => 600 Wh/mile = 37.2 kWh/100 km
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 17, 2018, 08:56:49 am
      (12[A]*107[V]*1[h])/2[miles] => 642 Wh/mile = 39.8 kWh/100 km

      Shell V-Power is at 1.35 €/litre here.

      39.8[kWh]*0.2[€/kWh] = 7.96€, that buys me 7.96[€]/1.35[€/litre]= 5.9 litres (*) of gasoil with which I can drive the same 100 km in any modern diesel.

      You've got nothing to say my dear fanboys?

      (*) Shell V-Power is the most expensive fuel there is.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 17, 2018, 02:50:34 pm
       :popcorn:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 17, 2018, 03:56:20 pm
      (12[A]*107[V]*1[h])/2[miles] => 642 Wh/mile = 39.8 kWh/100 km

      Shell V-Power is at 1.35 €/litre here.

      39.8[kWh]*0.2[€/kWh] = 7.96€, that buys me 7.96[€]/1.35[€/litre]= 5.9 litres (*) of gasoil with which I can drive the same 100 km in any modern diesel.

      You've got nothing to say my dear fanboys?

      (*) Shell V-Power is the most expensive fuel there is.

      If you watch the video, he clearly states that "it takes a while for that number to come up", plus it's to the resolution of 1. I would expect, and I'm sure the Model 3 owners here will tell you, it's probably closer to 4 miles/hr on a 1300W charge rate.  Certainly the math would imply

      50kWh battery
      220 Mile (352km) Range
      14.2 kWh/100km
      call it 17 kWh after charging loss

      So let's sum up:

      1. You're not really that truthful with regards to your electricity pricing, as the average price of electricity even in your country isn't 0.20, it's closer to €0.15 according to everything I can find, plus it's likely closer to 0.05 overnight as most of Europe has overnight tariffs.

      2. The actual consumption of a model 3 is less than 1/2 of your 'calculated' rate (see numbers above)

      So even using European (daytime) prices for electricity, it's still less than 1/2 the cost of operating a diesel


      Here in Western Canada the observed cost of operating an EV is 1/10th of that of operating the ICE equivalent vehicle, which I have shown over and over and over.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 17, 2018, 04:53:33 pm
      (12[A]*107[V]*1[h])/2[miles] => 642 Wh/mile = 39.8 kWh/100 km

      Shell V-Power is at 1.35 €/litre here.

      39.8[kWh]*0.2[€/kWh] = 7.96€, that buys me 7.96[€]/1.35[€/litre]= 5.9 litres (*) of gasoil with which I can drive the same 100 km in any modern diesel.

      You've got nothing to say my dear fanboys?

      (*) Shell V-Power is the most expensive fuel there is.

      If you watch the video, he clearly states that "it takes a while for that number to come up", plus it's to the resolution of 1. I would expect, and I'm sure the Model 3 owners here will tell you, it's probably closer to 4 miles/hr on a 1300W charge rate.  Certainly the math would imply

      50kWh battery
      220 Mile (352km) Range
      14.2 kWh/100km
      call it 17 kWh after charging loss

      So let's sum up:

      1. You're not really that truthful with regards to your electricity pricing, as the average price of electricity even in your country isn't 0.20, it's closer to €0.15 according to everything I can find, plus it's likely closer to 0.05 overnight as most of Europe has overnight tariffs.

      2. The actual consumption of a model 3 is less than 1/2 of your 'calculated' rate (see numbers above)

      So even using European (daytime) prices for electricity, it's still less than 1/2 the cost of operating a diesel


      Here in Western Canada the observed cost of operating an EV is 1/10th of that of operating the ICE equivalent vehicle, which I have shown over and over and over.


      Try the same calculations for the California/San Francisco Bay Area where I like.  We pay $0.45 during the day, and $0.12 in the evening for electricity and gas prices ranger from $3.25 to $3.95 per gallon.  (Depending on the station and city.)  Using that guys numbers at best case right now electric cars offer a savings of $800 per 10,000 miles.  At worst case break even.  But next year when PG&E raises are electric rates once again the energy costs for an ICE will be cost less than an EV.


      The guy's math pin the video poves it.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: richard.cs on September 17, 2018, 05:25:32 pm
      Naturally you get different answers depending on what two vehicles you choose to compare and your local electricity and petrol prices. Here's another, based on real-world numbers in the UK.

      My girlfriend recently bought a Renault Zoe, we consistently get around 4.7 miles per kWh according to the on-board display. I haven't seen hard numbers for the charging efficiency of a Zoe but 80% feels fairly pessimistic, let's use that. 4.7 mpkWh is 213 Wh per mile, scaled for input power is 265 Wh per mile. We currently pay £0.148 per kWh single-rate, it might be worth switching to an overnight tariff as we do the vast majority of the charging at night, but we haven't yet so let's use the £0.148. That gives me £0.039 per mile. We can argue endlessly as to whether we should include the battery lease as a per mile charge (as Renault bill it) or add it to the purchase price, but if we do add it in then we get to £0.119 per mile.

      The car it replaced was a 2010 Chevrolet Spark. Real-world we got around 320 miles to a tank with perhaps 5 L left in the 35 L tank, I pretty much always put 30 L in anyway. My local petrol stations are currently around £1.35 /L for unleaded so those 30 L would cost £40.50, so £0.127 per mile. The Zoe just about breaks even if you include the battery lease, but it is also a nicer car to drive and doesn't add to the already serious air quality problem in my city. Yes she probably could have picked an ICE car that worked out slightly cheaper on per mile costs (including the battery) but the two are pretty comparable, and night time electricity rates are about £0.07 here if we choose to switch over.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 17, 2018, 05:30:18 pm
      Still I'm not sure the numbers quoted for the Tesla are right. AFAIK the Tesla needs about 250Wh per km from the 'socket on the wall'. With $0.45 per kWh that brings the cost to $0,11 per km. With $3.95 per gallon and an mileage of (let's stay conservative) 35MPG = 56kmPG you get a cost of $0.07 per km. With an efficient ICE car in the 45MPG range the fuel costs go down to little over $0.05 per km.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 05:46:19 pm
      With $0.45 per kWh

      This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.

      Based on the most recently published EIA data, in the USA - the most expensive state Hawaii is almost half that. Most states average electricity prices are less than $0.10 per kWh. (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/) As of the end of 2016, the USA average was $0.10/kWh.  Where I live (WA state) with electricity prices in the $0.07-0.08/kWh. 


      (Edit- Here's a website with June 2018 data. (https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/) Prices have gone up some - USA ave is now $0.13/lkWh.  The point remains the same.)

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=525200;image)





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 17, 2018, 05:53:14 pm
      Still I'm not sure the numbers quoted for the Tesla are right. AFAIK the Tesla needs about 250Wh per km from the 'socket on the wall'. With $0.45 per kWh that brings the cost to $0,11 per km. With $3.95 per gallon and an mileage of (let's stay conservative) 35MPG = 56kmPG you get a cost of $0.07 per km. With an efficient ICE car in the 45MPG range the fuel costs go down to little over $0.05 per km.

      There sure is a large variation in the cost electricity and gas around the world.  Even if the guy’s math is +/- 10% or even 20% he’s showing the energy cost for an EV and ICE are comparable.  And if electricity coasts continue to rise faster than gas, electric cars will be more expensive to power.  Now to be fair he’s not factoring on oil changes.  But then again for the past 20 years I change the oil in my cars about once every 2 years or every 20,000 miles.  So, for my figures add in another $20 per year on the ICE for oil changes. 


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 17, 2018, 06:00:52 pm
      With $0.45 per kWh

      This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.

      Based on the most recently published EIA data, in the USA - the most expensive state Hawaii is almost half that. Most states average electricity prices are less than $0.10 per kWh. (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/) As of the end of 2016, the USA average was $0.10/kWh.  Where I live (WA state) with electricity prices in the $0.07-0.08/kWh. 


      (Edit- Here's a website with June 2018 data. (https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/) Prices have gone up some - USA ave is now $0.13/lkWh.  The point remains the same.)
      But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes. With the distribution costs and taxes added I pay around 22 eurocents per kWh.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 17, 2018, 06:02:05 pm
      With $0.45 per kWh

      This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.

      Based on the most recently published EIA data, in the USA - the most expensive state Hawaii is almost half that. Most states average electricity prices are less than $0.10 per kWh. (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/) As of the end of 2016, the USA average was $0.10/kWh.  Where I live (WA state) with electricity prices in the $0.07-0.08/kWh. 

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=525200;image)


      These are average rates.  Please tell me how I can pay the Californa average rate you posted.  Today I'm paying more three times the rate you posted.

      This miight be the average rate but how was it being calculated?  If you just average the six prices the electric comppany chanrges me over 365 days that is the average number.  But don't you think we should be using a weighted average and factor in the amout of time the power compnay chanrges for each of the rates?






      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 17, 2018, 06:06:57 pm
      With $0.45 per kWh

      This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.

      Based on the most recently published EIA data, in the USA - the most expensive state Hawaii is almost half that. Most states average electricity prices are less than $0.10 per kWh. (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/) As of the end of 2016, the USA average was $0.10/kWh.  Where I live (WA state) with electricity prices in the $0.07-0.08/kWh. 


      (Edit- Here's a website with June 2018 data. (https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/) Prices have gone up some - USA ave is now $0.13/lkWh.  The point remains the same.)
      But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes.

      The rates published rates do not.  They also do not include the connect fees, and various other charges one has to pay.  That table just lists the average cost across each state.  So for example in California there are power companies charging $0.05 and $0.85 per kHr.  If we take the average that would be $.68 kWhr.  While the calculation is accurate, the calculated number is meaningless.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 06:07:19 pm
      But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes.

      Of course there will be some taxes - but they are trivially low compared to the kWh price in all cases I'm aware of.  For my current utility - they are $0.0058/kWh.

      There will always be a usage independent basic service charge as well. (for me it's $29/month) - but of course that charge is irrelevant since it will be there even if I use no electricity.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 17, 2018, 06:10:53 pm
      But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes.

      Of course there will be some taxes - but they are trivially low compared to the kWh price in all cases I'm aware of.  For my current utility - they are $0.0058/kWh.

      There will always be a usage independent basic service charge as well. (for me it's $29/month) - but of course that charge is irrelevant since it will be there even if I use no electricity.

      In California we have a connect fee/meter charge of $10.00 plus taxes per month.  For people who are connected to the grid but do not sell or buy any electricity with the power company they still have to pay $120 per year + taxes to be connected.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 06:16:13 pm
      So for example in California there are power companies charging $0.05 and $0.85 per kHr.  If we take the average that would be $.68 kWhr.  While the calculation is accurate, the calculated number is meaningless.
      Nonsense. Your are just providing more fact free FUD.  Please tell me where in California electricity is $0.85/kWh.  And which city do you live in that charges $0.45/KWh.?

      The eletricity rates in the large population areas of California (Los Angles and San Francisco) are much much lower than that.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 17, 2018, 06:30:46 pm
      So for example in California there are power companies charging $0.05 and $0.85 per kHr.  If we take the average that would be $.68 kWhr.  While the calculation is accurate, the calculated number is meaningless.
      Nonsense. Your are just providing more fact free FUD.  Please tell me where in California electricity is $0.85/kWh.  And which city do you live in that charges $0.45/KWh.?

      The eletricity rates in the large population areas of California (Los Angles and San Francisco) are much much lower than that.


      Do you pay a PG&E bill in San Francisco?  I don't think so.  Just look at PG&E's electrial rates.
      https://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml (https://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml)  Specialy take a look a the TOU EV-A and EV-B rates and tell me how I'm not paying $0.45 kWhr?  Holly shit you are right, I was wrong.  PG&E raised rates.  It's not longer $0.85 kWhr it's on $0.862 kWhr. 

      Dude take a look for your self and then sheepishly tell me you are wrong.


      https://www.pge.com/en_US/business/rate-plans/rate-plans/peak-day-pricing/peak-day-pricing.page (https://www.pge.com/en_US/business/rate-plans/rate-plans/peak-day-pricing/peak-day-pricing.page)




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 06:42:20 pm

      Do you pay a PG&E bill in San Francisco?  I don't think so.  Just look at PG&E's electrial rates.
      https://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml (https://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml)  Specialy take a look a the TOU EV-A and EV-B rates and tell me how I'm not paying $0.45 kWhr?  Holly shit you are right, I was wrong.  PG&E raised rates.  It's not longer $0.85 kWhr it's on $0.862 kWhr. 

      What the hell are you smoking? Picture below is directly from the spreadsheet in your link and shows the most current average rates to be either $0.13 or $0.23 per kWh.

      And according to  this database (https://www.electricitylocal.com/states/california/san-francisco/) the average residential electricity price in San Francisco is $0.15/kWh.
      And that same website shows that in the largest population center of California, Los Angeles, the average rate is only $0.13/kWh.

      And BTW -any price sensitive EV owner would be charging their EV primarily during the lowest (off peak) rate hours.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=525248;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ez24 on September 17, 2018, 06:53:54 pm

      (Edit- Here's a website with June 2018 data. (https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/) Prices have gone up some - USA ave is now $0.13/lkWh.  The point remains the same.)

      FYI

      In San Diego Calif during Mar 2018 (stayed under baseline - used 332 KW)  the electricity rate was $0.15406  which is near the chart BUT I paid $0.24446 KW after a half dozen add on charges.

      But last month when I used the AC for 10 hours and went over baseline my total charge was $045 KW

      So my rate is .24 to .45 


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 07:03:03 pm

      (Edit- Here's a website with June 2018 data. (https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/) Prices have gone up some - USA ave is now $0.13/lkWh.  The point remains the same.)

      FYI

      In San Diego Calif during Mar 2018 (stayed under baseline - used 332 KW)  the electricity rate was $0.15406  which is near the chart BUT I paid $0.24446 KW after a half dozen add on charges.

      But last month when I used the AC for 10 hours and went over baseline my total charge was $045 KW

      So my rate is .24 to .45

      Thanks for the data point.   Were the add on charges use dependent?

      Base service charges are not relevant since they will be there regardless of whether you have an EV or not.

      TOU charges of course are designed to charge more at times of heavy use - typically AC use hours. As I stated, any EV owner will avoid charging during those hours unless they don't care about price.
      I know a couple of California EV owners who purposely set up their charging to only occur during the lowest rate hours.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 17, 2018, 07:05:14 pm

      Do you pay a PG&E bill in San Francisco?  I don't think so.  Just look at PG&E's electrial rates.
      https://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml (https://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml)  Specialy take a look a the TOU EV-A and EV-B rates and tell me how I'm not paying $0.45 kWhr?  Holly shit you are right, I was wrong.  PG&E raised rates.  It's not longer $0.85 kWhr it's on $0.862 kWhr. 

      What the hell are you smoking? Picture below is directly from the spreadsheet in your link and shows the most current average rates to be either $0.13 or $0.23 per kWh.

      And according to  this database (https://www.electricitylocal.com/states/california/san-francisco/) the average residential electricity price in San Francisco is $0.15/kWh.
      And that same website shows that in the largest population center of California, Los Angeles, the average rate is only $0.13/kWh.

      And BTW -any price sensitive EV owner would be charging their EV primarily during the lowest (off peak) rate hours.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=525248;image)

      Dude What the hell am smoking, why the hell don't you read and comprehend what it is you are posting?

      Dude the rates you are averaging are for people who receive special pricing to power life saving medial equipment or because they are dirt poor and can't afford to the rates everyone else pays.

      Not trying to be disreceptful, but jeeze dude get your facts stright.  We arn't talking about the small number of custoemrs who receive special rates, we have been disucssing the vast majority of cutomers who don't receive any discounts and pay the full rates.

      Come on, get with it.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 07:08:06 pm
      \We arn't talking about the small number of custoemrs who receive special rates, we have been disucssing the vast majority of cutomers who don't receive any discounts and pay the full rates.

      I posted the spreadsheet you provided. It clearly shows the average rates for normal PGE customers (as well as the CARE rate) which is nothing close to what you have claimed. That is not only showing special rates and you are wrong to imply it does..

      I've looked through multiple spreadsheets on the PGE site you posted now. Nowhere does it show anything close the the rates you claimed.

      Are you purposely being deceitful?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 17, 2018, 07:15:00 pm

      (Edit- Here's a website with June 2018 data. (https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/) Prices have gone up some - USA ave is now $0.13/lkWh.  The point remains the same.)

      FYI

      In San Diego Calif during Mar 2018 (stayed under baseline - used 332 KW)  the electricity rate was $0.15406  which is near the chart BUT I paid $0.24446 KW after a half dozen add on charges.

      But last month when I used the AC for 10 hours and went over baseline my total charge was $045 KW

      So my rate is .24 to .45

      Thanks for the data point.   Were the add on charges use dependent?

      Base service charges are not relevant since they will be there regardless of whether you have an EV or not.

      TOU charges of course are designed to charge more at times of heavy use - typically AC use hours. As I stated, any EV owner will avoid charging during those hours unless they don't care about price.
      I know a couple of California EV owners who purposely set up their charging to only occur during the lowest rate hours.

      Again you are so misinfored about Californa.  PG&E has 11 different residental rates.  One is tiered, and the others are TOU tiering or stright TOU without tiering.  Then there are rate plans which have Peak Days.  It is up to the custoemr to figure out which rate plan is the most cost effective.  There's a professor at Stanford who created a rate plan comparison tool.  It's wondeful.  It links to your PG&E account and calculates the amount you would pay for all of the PG&E rate plans and even includes calcuatations for folks who have PowerWalls/battery units.

      Using the tool, we  compared our actual useage against the different rate plans.  Just by comparing rate plans and selecting the lowest cost one we save between $40 to $75 per month.  That's a 20 to 43% percent saving every month just be choosing the rate plan that's best for us.

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 17, 2018, 07:20:16 pm
      I posted the spreadsheet you provided. It clearly shows the average rates for PGE which is nothing close to what you have claimed. That is not only showing special rates.
      Nowhere does it show anything close the the rates you claimed.

      Are you purposely being deceitful?

      No, you are.  Look at cells A4 and B4.  Any dummy can see these are the special rate plans that someone who is dying is on.  Yes the rest of us are dying to get on those rate plans but we aren't dying so we can't get on them.

      Can we focus our discussin on the rate plans the vast majority of us pay, and not the special medial rate plans for customers who are dying? 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 07:34:04 pm
      I posted the spreadsheet you provided. It clearly shows the average rates for PGE which is nothing close to what you have claimed. That is not only showing special rates.
      Nowhere does it show anything close the the rates you claimed.

      Are you purposely being deceitful?

      No, you are.  Look at cells A4 and B4.  Any dummy can see these are the special rate plans that someone who is dying is on.  Yes the rest of us are dying to get on those rate plans but we aren't dying so we can't get on them.

      Can we focus our discussin on the rate plans the vast majority of us pay, and not the special medial rate plans for customers who are dying?

      Alright Doug.  Now I can not conclude anything other than your are a straight up dishonest troll.

      That spreadsheet clearly shows that the average normal rate (row A) is $0.23/kWh not the $0.45 or $0.86/kWh you claimed.  Anyone can look for themselves.

      You claimed you pay $0.45/kWh
      You claimed somewhere in CA the rate is $0.86/hr

      Both claims could be true but we simply don't know since you have provided no evidence of that.

      It would not surprise me if some utility somewhere charges that much for high demand TOU hours.  It really is irrelevant though since anyone living in such an area would be silly to charge their EV during those hours.

      What you have done is provide a link to the PGE website with their current average rates of either $0.13 (CARE qualifying customers)  or $0.23 per kWh (normal customers).

      (BTW - the CARE program is not for people "who are dying" - it is for general low income households)

      This is the same old pattern with you across multiple threads since you joined this forum.  Make claims without any evidence to support them, then change the subject  when presented with actual facts.

      I've got to go clean my roof gutters now.  Feel free to post some actual verifiable data to support your claims. I'll have a look later.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 17, 2018, 08:09:47 pm
      [...] it's probably closer to 4 miles/hr on a 1300W charge rate. Certainly the math would imply [...] 14.2 kWh/100km, call it 17 kWh after charging loss [...]

      Nope, ^^^^ that's wrong, let's do the math:

      1300[W]*1[h]/4[mile]/1.609344[km/mile] = 201.9 Wh/km = 20.2 kWh/100 km

      You don't believe me (that's fair), you don't believe what Tesla says (in the second picture of my post), you don't believe what the car says (the picture of the dashboard), so please buy a "kill-a-watt" and see by yourself because "seeing is believing".
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 17, 2018, 08:20:09 pm
      I've found this googling:

      (http://cdn.teslarati.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Tesla-Battery-Range-Zero-0.jpg)

      227[V]*13[A]*1[h]/12[km] = 245.9 Wh/km = 24.6 kWh/100 km.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 17, 2018, 09:09:03 pm
      But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes.
      Of course there will be some taxes - but they are trivially low compared to the kWh price in all cases I'm aware of.  For my current utility - they are $0.0058/kWh.

      There will always be a usage independent basic service charge as well. (for me it's $29/month) - but of course that charge is irrelevant since it will be there even if I use no electricity.
      I wouldn't call it irrelevant because it does add to the price per kWh number. No creative book keeping  >:D . I'm still interested in what people actually pay per kWh. Electricity prices without taking all the costs (fixed and variable) into account are not usefull to make a good comparison between the actual costs. For my personal situation EV versus ICE is equal when it comes to costs per km if I had to choose between buying an EV or and efficient ICE car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 17, 2018, 09:10:13 pm
      Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.

      It's not a made up number, I know what I pay. And to present a worst case comparison I would have chosen the carrefour gazole not the Shell V-Power.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 09:28:58 pm
      Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.

      It's not a made up number, I know what I pay. And to present a worst case comparison I would have chosen the carrefour gazole not the V-Power.

      OK - then cherry picked.  As pointed out by Boffin, average electricity rates in Poland are closer to 0.15 Euro/kWh, not 0.20. (for example see here (https://www.statista.com/statistics/418110/electricity-prices-for-households-in-poland/)) and overnight rates, when EVs would mostly be charged, are likely much less.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 09:32:11 pm
      But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes.
      Of course there will be some taxes - but they are trivially low compared to the kWh price in all cases I'm aware of.  For my current utility - they are $0.0058/kWh.

      There will always be a usage independent basic service charge as well. (for me it's $29/month) - but of course that charge is irrelevant since it will be there even if I use no electricity.
      I wouldn't call it irrelevant because it does add to the price per kWh number. No creative book keeping  >:D . I'm still interested in what people actually pay per kWh. Electricity prices without taking all the costs (fixed and variable) into account are not usefull to make a good comparison between the actual costs. For my personal situation EV versus ICE is equal when it comes to costs per km if I had to choose between buying an EV or and efficient ICE car.

      Please explain how a fixed electricity connection cost is relevant to evaluating the price to fuel an EV.  That charge would be there regardless of whether one owns an EV or not.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 17, 2018, 09:41:19 pm
      I posted the spreadsheet you provided. It clearly shows the average rates for PGE which is nothing close to what you have claimed. That is not only showing special rates.
      Nowhere does it show anything close the the rates you claimed.

      Are you purposely being deceitful?

      No, you are.  Look at cells A4 and B4.  Any dummy can see these are the special rate plans that someone who is dying is on.  Yes the rest of us are dying to get on those rate plans but we aren't dying so we can't get on them.

      Can we focus our discussin on the rate plans the vast majority of us pay, and not the special medial rate plans for customers who are dying?

      Alright Doug.  Now I can not conclude anything other than your are a straight up dishonest troll.

      That spreadsheet clearly shows that the average normal rate (row A) is $0.23/kWh not the $0.45 or $0.86/kWh you claimed.  Anyone can look for themselves.

      You claimed you pay $0.45/kWh
      You claimed somewhere in CA the rate is $0.86/hr

      Both claims could be true but we simply don't know since you have provided no evidence of that.

      It would not surprise me if some utility somewhere charges that much for high demand TOU hours.  It really is irrelevant though since anyone living in such an area would be silly to charge their EV during those hours.

      What you have done is provide a link to the PGE website with their current average rates of either $0.13 (CARE qualifying customers)  or $0.23 per kWh (normal customers).

      (BTW - the CARE program is not for people "who are dying" - it is for general low income households)

      This is the same old pattern with you across multiple threads since you joined this forum.  Make claims without any evidence to support them, then change the subject  when presented with actual facts.

      I've got to go clean my roof gutters now.  Feel free to post some actual verifiable data to support your claims. I'll have a look later.

      Never said $0.45 is the average.  Read what I wrote, $0.45 is what I pay.  Big difference from the average.   So what do you do if you need say drive to school to pick-up the kids but need to charge the battery when rates are at $0.45?  Leave the kids at school? 

      Be real.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 17, 2018, 09:43:06 pm
      OK - then cherry picked.  As pointed out by Boffin, average electricity rates in Poland are closer to 0.15 Euro/kWh, not 0.20. (for example see here (https://www.statista.com/statistics/418110/electricity-prices-for-households-in-poland/)) and overnight rates, when EVs would mostly be charged, are likely much less.

      Yes, I cherry pick the price I pay, and you and boffin know my electricity bills better than I, lol. The fanboys broken logic FTW.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 17, 2018, 09:44:32 pm
      But do these prices include transportation / distribution costs and taxes? 7ct per kWh seems awfully low for an all inclusive price. Over here I pay around 7 eurocents per kWh but that excludes distribution costs and taxes.
      Of course there will be some taxes - but they are trivially low compared to the kWh price in all cases I'm aware of.  For my current utility - they are $0.0058/kWh.

      There will always be a usage independent basic service charge as well. (for me it's $29/month) - but of course that charge is irrelevant since it will be there even if I use no electricity.
      I wouldn't call it irrelevant because it does add to the price per kWh number. No creative book keeping  >:D . I'm still interested in what people actually pay per kWh. Electricity prices without taking all the costs (fixed and variable) into account are not usefull to make a good comparison between the actual costs. For my personal situation EV versus ICE is equal when it comes to costs per km if I had to choose between buying an EV or and efficient ICE car.

      Please explain how a fixed electricity connection cost is relevant to evaluating the price to fuel an EV.  That charge would be there regardless of whether one owns an EV or not.
      That is the definition of creative book keeping. Some people would even argue electricity from their solar panels is free.  :palm:
      Anyway, earlier you quoted using about 900kWh per month (10800kWh per year). If you drive an EV for 20k km per year that would add 5kWh per year. Total usage: 15800kWh / year. $29/month is $348 per year. So the fixed costs are 2.2 cents per kWh and thus add about half a cent per km of cost to driving the EV. With the numbers being really close that half cent can make the difference between an EV being cheaper or more expensive compared to an ICE based car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 17, 2018, 09:53:11 pm
      Please explain how a fixed electricity connection cost is relevant to evaluating the price to fuel an EV.  That charge would be there regardless of whether one owns an EV or not.

      The bill has the form (a+b+c*kWh+d*kWh)*vat

      a and b depend on your maximum allowed power. And c and d on the energy consumed, the more the bigger they become. I think it's the same in doug's spreadsheet: see the different energy charge baseline % columns.

      If you own an EV (or two!), it's very likely that a and b will become more expensive because you'll need more power, and the kWh/month figures will also grow => bigger c and d too.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 17, 2018, 09:55:30 pm
      Still I'm not sure the numbers quoted for the Tesla are right. AFAIK the Tesla needs about 250Wh per km from the 'socket on the wall'. With $0.45 per kWh that brings the cost to $0,11 per km. With $3.95 per gallon and an mileage of (let's stay conservative) 35MPG = 56kmPG you get a cost of $0.07 per km. With an efficient ICE car in the 45MPG range the fuel costs go down to little over $0.05 per km.

      There sure is a large variation in the cost electricity and gas around the world.  Even if the guy’s math is +/- 10% or even 20% he’s showing the energy cost for an EV and ICE are comparable.  And if electricity coasts continue to rise faster than gas, electric cars will be more expensive to power.  Now to be fair he’s not factoring on oil changes.  But then again for the past 20 years I change the oil in my cars about once every 2 years or every 20,000 miles.  So, for my figures add in another $20 per year on the ICE for oil changes.

      Yet more cherry-picked numbers?  You find me a car with a 20,000 mile oil change interval (most are 10,000 mile, maybe 15,000), and I'll show you a car which takes full synthentic oil.  $20 wouldn't even buy the oil for an oil-change, which typically runs around $30+/5 qt.




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 17, 2018, 10:00:28 pm

      ...This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.


      They love cherry-picking numbers. 

      They'll try and compare a Tesla Model 3 with a Fiat Panda, and claim they're equivalent.  I've had one of them in this thread say that comparing a VW Electric Golf to a VW Gasoline Golf isn't a reasonable comparison.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 10:06:10 pm

      Never said $0.45 is the average.   
        I never said you did. You're being dishonest again.  You've yet to tell us which city you live in to check your rates and you did post a link to PGEs website that directly contradicts what you claimed it said.

      Quote
      So what do you do if you need say drive to school to pick-up the kids but need to charge the battery when rates are at $0.45?  Leave the kids at school? 
      Be smart and charge overnight when rates are low. Most EVs and most peoples driving habits will mean that is what usually would happen. There will always be edge cases but it is disingenuous to cite those in this context. Just as it would be disingenuous to use the biggest gas guzzling SUVs as a point of comparison.

      Since you brought up driving kids to school here's a real world Apples to Apples comparison:  My wife drives a Chrysler Pacifica PHEV with an approximately 33 mile all electric range. She can go to work (or drop kids at school) and back twice without any charging.  (and where we live our grid electricity costs $0.073/kWh regardless of time of day).  The exact same ICE only minivan gets EPA estimated 19 MPG for city driving. The cost of 2 round trips (approx 30 miles) would be about $4.50 using the cheapest gas available here.  For that amount we could fully charge the 16 kWh battery 3.85 times giving a range of 127 miles.

      Quote
      Be real
        Be honest.

      BTW - Here's a link to my utilties rates (https://www.clallampud.net/electric-rate-information-2/) for verification.  Still waiting for verification of yours....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 17, 2018, 10:26:38 pm
      [...] Just as it would be disingenuous to use the biggest gas guzzling SUVs as a point of comparison. [...] The exact same ICE only minivan gets EPA estimated 19 MPG for city driving. [...]

      19 MPG isn't a gas guzzler? GOD BLESS THE USA LOL
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 10:32:35 pm
      [...] Just as it would be disingenuous to use the biggest gas guzzling SUVs as a point of comparison. [...] The exact same ICE only minivan gets EPA estimated 19 MPG for city driving. [...]

      19 MPG isn't a gas guzzler? GOD BLESS THE USA LOL

      Why dishonestly truncate your quote?    I gave an Apples to Apples comparison - the exact same car -  ICE only vs PHEV.  (A minivan used to shuttle kids to school as per Doug's example). I was not comparing a gas guzzler to a small EV - which would have better miles/kWh.

      BTW gas guzzling SUVs get < 15 MPG !
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 17, 2018, 10:38:56 pm

      ...This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.


      They love cherry-picking numbers. 

      They'll try and compare a Tesla Model 3 with a Fiat Panda, and claim they're equivalent.  I've had one of them in this thread say that comparing a VW Electric Golf to a VW Gasoline Golf isn't a reasonable comparison.

      Yes. It's remarkable that they think others can't see their transparent bullshit.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 17, 2018, 10:46:34 pm

      ...This is a cherry picked number. Just as George has cherry picked (or made up) a number. This seems to be a common theme with the anti-EV ers.  Cherry pick (or make up) a number to present a worse case comparison, meanwhile ignoring factual and more widely applicable data presented by others.


      They love cherry-picking numbers. 

      They'll try and compare a Tesla Model 3 with a Fiat Panda, and claim they're equivalent.  I've had one of them in this thread say that comparing a VW Electric Golf to a VW Gasoline Golf isn't a reasonable comparison.
      Yes. It's remarkable that they think others can't see their transparent bullshit.
      I'm seeing some great imagination here. I don't recall anyone comparing a Tesla model 3 with a Fiat Panda  :palm: .
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: splin on September 17, 2018, 11:04:44 pm
      4.7 mpkWh is 213 Wh per mile, scaled for input power is 265 Wh per mile.

      Sounds reasonable - I've seen figures of 250 to 300Wh/mile, but don't forget that winter heating and hot summer A/C (ie. this year in the UK!) will increase these so average annual comnsumption may be a bit higher (quite a bit higher in colder climes than the UK). Of course ICE are slightly less efficient when it's cold but there is no need for any extra cabin heating power. A/C obviously requires more fuel.

      Quote
      That gives me £0.039 per mile. We can argue endlessly as to whether we should include the battery lease as a per mile charge (as Renault bill it) or add it to the purchase price, but if we do add it in then we get to £0.119 per mile.

      The battery clearly has to be paid for, either directly in the battery lease cost or indirectly by paying into a fund for its eventual replacement or through the vehicle depreciation which is high for EVs for that reason (amongst others including significantly improved models being, or likely to be, released).

      The Renault £.08/mile cost may be reasonable but as far as I know no replacement batteries are available for sale from the manufacturers (in the UK) so we have to guess at the eventual costbut I'd guess that anywhere between £.05 and £.08/mile are realistic costs. This is more than the electricity cost yet rarely gets mentioned when comparing running costs with ICEs.

      Quote
      The car it replaced was a 2010 Chevrolet Spark. Real-world we got around 320 miles to a tank with perhaps 5 L left in the 35 L tank, I pretty much always put 30 L in anyway. My local petrol stations are currently around £1.35 /L for unleaded so those 30 L would cost £40.50, so £0.127 per mile. The Zoe just about breaks even if you include the battery lease.

      Again I'd agree that this is a reasonable conclusion - similar costs for EVs and ICEs. I understand that insurance for EVs used to be higher but this may no longer be the case and the high depreciation (above battery cost) may make an EV more costly to run if you change your car every few years.

      But the big factor that gets barely mentioned is that EVs are heavily subsidised - not only because of government subsidy for the purchase price but also the lack of duty on the fuel. In the UK 61% of the retail price of petrol and diesel is tax compared to 5% for electricity. That can't remain the case when EVs get more popular (as the government can't afford the loss of so much revenue) so road pricing or similar will have to introduced at some point to ensure EV owners pay their fair share of maintaining the road network, emergency services etc.

      That may change the balance somewhat but it could (very likely) be offset by higher charges on ICE vehicles to encourage switching to EVs. I'm not convinced they can go very on this route as doing so may be politically difficult because many people, especially the poorer, won't have the choice to switch to an EV for various reasons including lack of home recharging facilities. The UK government has been forced to cancel the fuel duty rises it had planned for many years now because they were profoundly unpopular and may have lost office for the government of the day at the next election.

      I think the mass adoption of EVs will take a lot longer than may expect or wish for - unless there is more radical changes in the battery technology and/or cost than currently predicted.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 17, 2018, 11:20:06 pm
      But the big factor that gets barely mentioned is that EVs are heavily subsidised - not only because of government subsidy for the purchase price but also the lack of duty on the fuel. In the UK 61% of the retail price of petrol and diesel is tax compared to 5% for electricity. That can't remain the case when EVs get more popular (as the government can't afford the loss of so much revenue) so road pricing or similar will have to introduced at some point to ensure EV owners pay their fair share of maintaining the road network, emergency services etc.

      That may change the balance somewhat but it could (very likely) be offset by higher charges on ICE vehicles to encourage switching to EVs. I'm not convinced they can go very on this route as doing so may be politically difficult because many people, especially the poorer, won't have the choice to switch to an EV for various reasons including lack of home recharging facilities.
      In the NL they have tried to raise the prices for owning and using cars for decades in order to get more people to use the public transport. It hasn't worked at all and the only thing it achieved is increase the cost of labour. After all people have to go to work and if the car costs more then the people need to earn more (inflation). You also make a very good point about taxes on fuel. If the majority of the cars are electric then the income from those taxes need to be obtained somehow.

      In the last few messages we have concentrated on comparing prices but if the fuel taxes are factored into the usage costs of an EV then the EV will be even more expensive for me to run (besides the higher cost of purchase and larger write off).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on September 18, 2018, 04:08:50 am
      I should start a thread "when will luxury/performance ev cars become mainstream?"

      As an owner of a cheap Tesla S. never noticed a dent in our bill. The car has almost 300 miles range each morning off 120v x 2 outlets. about 10 mph charge rate. No tiers or timing in Maine yet. The new smart meter on outside wall behind my couch is ready I'm sure. (Ouch!! getting headaches from it. My milk is souring, and my cat is pregnant, even though HE has been fixed.

      Took a long time to immunize against the digital cell towers. My 1500 watt ham transmitter or tinfoil hat must have done that).

      Anyway built in America, someone has to oil the robots, and  something like 90% of parts sourced here. Elon tried China, but was not cost worthy. Even though people buy $1100 crapapple chinesium phones.

      My car cost 69000 on the window sticker, and we got a $7500 tax rebate, which we applied for upgrades last spring.

      Big bummer is yesterday the drivers window rubber started screeching yesterday. Thought I was done needing to work on cars. Guess need to get out the 303 treatment. Or maybe wash the windows.

      I'll post actual data but I think our average kwh/mile is about 225. And we kind of leadfoot it, so much safer than expecting a transmission to downshift or be distracted by manual shifting.

      I hate not having a spare tire. guess luxury car owners want to have AAA or a butler do it. Could throw one in the Frunk.

      Having a cheap one we did not get the air suspension. they give you a little settee stand then you just lift and separate.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 18, 2018, 07:19:18 am
      I hate not having a spare tire. guess luxury car owners want to have AAA or a butler do it. Could throw one in the Frunk.

      One that's short.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 18, 2018, 10:50:16 am
      I hate not having a spare tire. guess luxury car owners want to have AAA or a butler do it. Could throw one in the Frunk.
      I've been stranded by a couple of car issues, but I have never used a spare tyre. I wonder what percentage of all "car won't go" incidents are actually helped by the presence of a spare tyre?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on September 18, 2018, 12:36:54 pm
      I might have underestimated how fast this goes.
      Audi released their new E-SUV the e-tron today, costing a stunning startprice of €84000 in our country and $75000 in the US.
      Still there are already 10000 pre-orders in Belgium  :o
      Can't believe this but if true it will go much faster than I anticipated.
      They call it the e-car for the masses but at €84000 I know no-one that can afford it  :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 18, 2018, 02:47:15 pm
      I might have underestimated how fast this goes.
      Audi released their new E-SUV the e-tron today, costing a stunning startprice of €84000 in our country and $75000 in the US.
      Still there are already 10000 pre-orders in Belgium  :o
      Can't believe this but if true it will go much faster than I anticipated.
      They call it the e-car for the masses but at €84000 I know no-one that can afford it  :)
      The e-car for the enormous masses of the bloated plutocrats.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 18, 2018, 03:16:29 pm
      Still I'm not sure the numbers quoted for the Tesla are right. AFAIK the Tesla needs about 250Wh per km from the 'socket on the wall'. With $0.45 per kWh that brings the cost to $0,11 per km. With $3.95 per gallon and an mileage of (let's stay conservative) 35MPG = 56kmPG you get a cost of $0.07 per km. With an efficient ICE car in the 45MPG range the fuel costs go down to little over $0.05 per km.

      There sure is a large variation in the cost electricity and gas around the world.  Even if the guy’s math is +/- 10% or even 20% he’s showing the energy cost for an EV and ICE are comparable.  And if electricity coasts continue to rise faster than gas, electric cars will be more expensive to power.  Now to be fair he’s not factoring on oil changes.  But then again for the past 20 years I change the oil in my cars about once every 2 years or every 20,000 miles.  So, for my figures add in another $20 per year on the ICE for oil changes.

      Yet more cherry-picked numbers?  You find me a car with a 20,000 mile oil change interval (most are 10,000 mile, maybe 15,000), and I'll show you a car which takes full synthentic oil.  $20 wouldn't even buy the oil for an oil-change, which typically runs around $30+/5 qt.

      There you go again not comprehending what was written in my post.  Take a deep beath and go back and read what I wrote about oil changes and how I arrived at $20 per year.  No I do not and the car does not need synthetic oil.  If you are an honorable person you will apologize for not understanding what I wrote.  If you are a jerk, you won’t and deomostrane you have an agenda which is not to get at the truth.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 18, 2018, 04:18:40 pm
      I might have underestimated how fast this goes.
      Audi released their new E-SUV the e-tron today, costing a stunning startprice of €84000 in our country and $75000 in the US.
      Still there are already 10000 pre-orders in Belgium  :o
      Can't believe this but if true it will go much faster than I anticipated.
      They call it the e-car for the masses but at €84000 I know no-one that can afford it  :)
      All for business. So no VAT, deductable from tax and environmental subsidies on top. A couple of years ago this would knock off about 75% of the retail price. I don't know the exact numbers right now but as a business you can still get an EV with hefty discounts.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 18, 2018, 04:27:32 pm
      I hate not having a spare tire. guess luxury car owners want to have AAA or a butler do it. Could throw one in the Frunk.
      I've been stranded by a couple of car issues, but I have never used a spare tyre. I wonder what percentage of all "car won't go" incidents are actually helped by the presence of a spare tyre?
      Well, the ones that have to do with a leaky tyre. Having a real spare tyre has helped me to keep going several times already. But then again we used to do a lot of long (cross Europe) trips with the car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on September 18, 2018, 07:29:47 pm
      All for business. So no VAT, deductable from tax and environmental subsidies on top. A couple of years ago this would knock off about 75% of the retail price. I don't know the exact numbers right now but as a business you can still get an EV with hefty discounts.
      Ends as of end of this year at least what I heard. Then the unsold EV's will stay in the showroom
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 18, 2018, 09:01:42 pm
      I think the mass adoption of EVs will take a lot longer than may expect or wish for - unless there is more radical changes in the battery technology and/or cost than currently predicted.

      I think that depends a lot of your jurisdiction.  Here in Western Canada, the combination of cheap electricity (about £0.06/kWh) from hydro electric, and relatively (for north america) expensive gasoline (£0.88/l), it means that my EV energy consumption costs are about 1/8th of the same car with an internal combustion engine. FWIW I drive a VW eGolf. In jurisdictions with more expensive electricity, and cheaper gasoline, perhaps the numbers aren't quite so beneficial, but you'd be hard pressed to find any jurisdiction where they don't hold out.

      I see about 17kWh/100km (consumption from the socket) on my VW eGolf @ C$0.093/kWh*1 (my EVSE measures, so I know the real numbers)
      The same car (VW Golf) in ICE consumes about 8.5l / 100k*2 with typical gasoline prices @ C$1.49

      Vancouver Canada
      EV: C$1.58
      ICE: C$12.67

      In reality about 20-30% of my charging is done at free charging stations around town, so my direct costs are a little lower than that; but's lets assume worse case where I pay for every electron. The additional purchase price (about C$6k more vs the ICE version) will be paid off long before I get rid of the car, and the lower maintenance costs are just an added bonus that I haven't factored in.



      If you ran the numbers in Southern California at 0.48/kWh and 3.95/gal (1.04/l) for fuel, the numbers are still better for an EV, although that advantage is marginal if you only charge using peak electricity rates. Luckily PG&E have specific tiered rate plans for EV owners to help them minimize costs.

      Southern California
      EV: $8.16 (day charging @ 0.48*3)
      EV: $2.21 (overnight charging @ 0.13/kWh*3)
      ICE: $8.84 (@3.95)
      ICE: $7.27 (@3.25)



      Even in Europe, the numbers are such that an EV is well worth it, and assuming a smaller displacement VW Golf (@ 5.2l/100km or 54 ImpMPG) in the Netherlands @ 1.35/l , and electricity @ 0.22/kWh *4

      Netherlands
      EV: €3.74 (overnight rates would drop this slightly)
      ICE: €7.02

      references:
      *1 https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html)
      *2 https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/oee/pdf/transportation/tools/fuelratings/2018%20Fuel%20Consumption%20Guide.pdf (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/oee/pdf/transportation/tools/fuelratings/2018%20Fuel%20Consumption%20Guide.pdf)
      *3 https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV%20(Sch).pdf (https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV%20(Sch).pdf)
      *4 numbers as provided by nctnico in eevblog forum

      (edited to add lower end of California fuel prices)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 19, 2018, 12:29:32 am
      I think the mass adoption of EVs will take a lot longer than may expect or wish for - unless there is more radical changes in the battery technology and/or cost than currently predicted.

      I think that depends a lot of your jurisdiction.  Here in Western Canada, the combination of cheap electricity (about £0.06/kWh) from hydro electric, and relatively (for north america) expensive gasoline (£0.88/l), it means that my EV energy consumption costs are about 1/8th of the same car with an internal combustion engine. FWIW I drive a VW eGolf. In jurisdictions with more expensive electricity, and cheaper gasoline, perhaps the numbers aren't quite so beneficial, but you'd be hard pressed to find any jurisdiction where they don't hold out.

      I see about 17kWh/100km (consumption from the socket) on my VW eGolf @ C$0.093/kWh*1 (my EVSE measures, so I know the real numbers)
      The same car (VW Golf) in ICE consumes about 8.5l / 100k*2 with typical gasoline prices @ C$1.49

      Vancouver Canada
      EV: C$1.58
      ICE: C$12.67

      In reality about 20-30% of my charging is done at free charging stations around town, so my direct costs are a little lower than that; but's lets assume worse case where I pay for every electron. The additional purchase price (about C$6k more vs the ICE version) will be paid off long before I get rid of the car, and the lower maintenance costs are just an added bonus that I haven't factored in.



      If you ran the numbers in Southern California at 0.48/kWh and 3.95/gal (1.04/l) for fuel, the numbers are still better for an EV, although that advantage is marginal if you only charge using peak electricity rates. Luckily PG&E have specific tiered rate plans for EV owners to help them minimize costs.

      Southern California
      EV: $8.16 (day charging @ 0.48*3)
      EV: $2.21 (overnight charging @ 0.13/kWh*3)
      ICE: $8.84


      Even in Europe, the numbers are such that an EV is well worth it, and assuming a smaller displacement VW Golf (@ 5.2l/100km or 54 ImpMPG) in the Netherlands @ 1.35/l , and electricity @ 0.22/kWh and fuel @ 1.35/l *4

      Netherlands
      EV: €3.74 (overnight rates would drop this slightly)
      ICE: €7.02

      references:
      *1 https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html)
      *2 https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/oee/pdf/transportation/tools/fuelratings/2018%20Fuel%20Consumption%20Guide.pdf (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/oee/pdf/transportation/tools/fuelratings/2018%20Fuel%20Consumption%20Guide.pdf)
      *3 https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV%20(Sch).pdf (https://www.pge.com/tariffs/assets/pdf/tariffbook/ELEC_SCHEDS_EV%20(Sch).pdf)
      *4 numbers as provided by nctnico in eevblog forum

      Get ready to be called a troll by mtdoc.  I posted the same rates for electricity in the San Francisco Bay Area by mtdoc and he called me a liar and a troll.  I even provided the links the PG&E rates web page and mtdoc still called me a troll.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 19, 2018, 01:20:54 am

      Get ready to be called a troll by mtdoc.  I posted the same rates for electricity in the San Francisco Bay Area by mtdoc and he called me a liar and a troll.  I even provided the links the PG&E rates web page and mtdoc still called me a troll.

      What are you 13 years old?    :palm:

      You did nothing of the sort. You claimed that your electricity cost you 0.48 per kWh (and costs 0.86/kWh other places) and provided absolutely no proof of that. In fact what you did provide refuted that. Despite repeated requests to provide your location or document your rate you have not.  The PGE website clearly refuted your claims. 

      As Boffin posted - even someplace where high TOU rates may be in force (as I said earlier do exist)- low rates are available for EV charging at other times and EV costs are lower then ICE.

      You have over and over again since you joined this forum, made claims of facts which when asked,  failed to provide any documentation or proof and when examined have proven to be false.  You come in and out of these threads with nothing but bullshit and trolling nonsense.

      Boffin has done what you and the anti EVers  here have never done: Provided direct comparisons with references.  What they clearly show is that  EV fueling costs are lower than ICE across multiple locations.   :clap:


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 20, 2018, 05:01:53 pm

      Get ready to be called a troll by mtdoc.  I posted the same rates for electricity in the San Francisco Bay Area by mtdoc and he called me a liar and a troll.  I even provided the links the PG&E rates web page and mtdoc still called me a troll.

      What are you 13 years old?    :palm:

      You did nothing of the sort. You claimed that your electricity cost you 0.48 per kWh (and costs 0.86/kWh other places) and provided absolutely no proof of that. In fact what you did provide refuted that. Despite repeated requests to provide your location or document your rate you have not.  The PGE website clearly refuted your claims. 

      As Boffin posted - even someplace where high TOU rates may be in force (as I said earlier do exist)- low rates are available for EV charging at other times and EV costs are lower then ICE.

      You have over and over again since you joined this forum, made claims of facts which when asked,  failed to provide any documentation or proof and when examined have proven to be false.  You come in and out of these threads with nothing but bullshit and trolling nonsense.

      Boffin has done what you and the anti EVers  here have never done: Provided direct comparisons with references.  What they clearly show is that  EV fueling costs are lower than ICE across multiple locations.   :clap:

      If I am 13 you must be 3.  Look I mean no disrepect and you are not going to win an argument by insuting people.  You have called me a troll and a liar.  You say I don't provide any documentaion or proof.

      Not exactly sure what your agenda is or what is is your goal is but is most certainly is not the truth.

      I porived a link to the power compnay's web site where I purchase my power from.  I stated they have rates as high as $0.862 per kWhr for some rates plans.  My firend I just clicked on the link I provided to you previously.  Here's a screenshot which proves PG&E does in fact charge between 2 and 6 pm as mush as $0.862 per hWhr.  Dude click on the link and see for yourself PG&E charges upto $0.862 per kWhr.

      I stated for the rate plan I am on, I'm paying as much as $0.45 kWhr with PG&E.  There was another individual who lives in Southern California who stated he was paying a bit more than the $0.45 kWhr PG&E charges and it appears you did not beleive that person either.


      So dude, stop with the insults and name calling and let's have a discussion like grown-ups.

      Let's review.  In California there are over 70 different power companies.  In the San Francisco Bay Area the biggest is PG&E, but there are others.  PG&E offers residentail customers a choice of 9 different rate plans.  (Tiered, Time of Use, Tired Time of Use, Stright Time of Use no tiering.)  I am on the straight Time of Use rate plan with no tiering which means the amount I pay per kWhr chages upto 5 times in a 24 hr period.  The most I currently pay for a kWhr is $0.45, but other PG&E customers can pay over $0.85.

      If one uses the numbers the in the Tesla guy's video and applies PG&Es rates and California gas prices one finds the cost difference to power an ICE and an EV is about the same.  (Slight edge it EV, but not much.)  But when PG&E raises electricty rates ICEs will cost less to power than EVs.
       





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 20, 2018, 05:48:02 pm
      The question has never been are there some places, somewhere,  that at some heavy use times, charge ridiculously high electricity rates.  Of course, we all know that is true.  The issue is what will the cost of ownership be for a typical EV driver versus a typical ICE driver. Obviously, cost of fueling is the largest cost of ownership.

      Anyone who picks $0.45/kWh as the point of comparison is being dishonest.   Even in one of he most expensive electricity markets in the world (California) that price is rare and only applicable during high TOU hours which as any EV owner will tell you, is not what they will be paying.

      Suggesting that $0.45/kWh is the price someone with an EV will commonly pay for electricity is just as dishonest as it would be claiming that typical ICE refuelling costs would be $8/gallon because there are places that charge that much.

      I porived a link to the power compnay's web site where I purchase my power from.  I stated they have rates as high as $0.862 per kWhr for some rates plans.  My firend I just clicked on the link I provided to you previously.  Here's a screenshot which proves PG&E does in fact charge between 2 and 6 pm as mush as $0.862 per hWhr.  Dude click on the link and see for yourself PG&E charges upto $0.862 per kWhr.

       This is the link you provided (https://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml). That page (as all can see) is a list of links to numerous spreadsheets with rates. Nowhere on that page can I find what you posted or a link to that graph (and the pic and your post give no info about where it comes from) Of course PGE has a large website with no doubt multple sublinks, etc - so it could be there somewhere. As I said it would not surprise me that someone at some location - in some exremely hight TOU scenario would pay that much. That is irrelevant to the discussion at hand.  What is relevant is what most people pay most of the time and what an EV owner would pay when charging at low TOU hours.

      What the link you provided does show directly contradicts your claims (and it is dishonest of you to imply otherwise).  In multiple spreadsheets - it shows that in one of the most expensive electricity markets in the USA, electricity rates are no where near what you have claimed.  Again here is a screen shot from the most recent, TOP,  FRONT AND CENTER spreadsheet linked on that page. Other spreadsheets on that page that I've looked at show similar or lower rates (there are hundreds and I did not look at all of them).

      [(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=525248;image)

      If you want to engage in constructive debate on this topic, back up all statements of fact with a linked reference and don't lie about what the links show (as any review of this thread will confirm you've repeatedly done).



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 20, 2018, 06:32:20 pm
      The question has never been are there some places, somewhere,  that at some heavy use times, charge ridiculously high electricity rates.  Of course, we all know that is true.  The issue is what will the cost of ownership be for a typical EV driver versus a typical ICE driver. Obviously, cost of fueling is the largest cost of ownership.

      Anyone who picks $0.45/kWh as the point of comparison is being dishonest.   Even in one of he most expensive electricity markets in the world (California) that price is rare and only applicable during high TOU hours which as any EV owner will tell you, is not what they will be paying.

      Suggesting that $0.45/kWh is the price someone with an EV will commonly pay for electricity is just as dishonest as it would be claiming that typical ICE refuelling costs would be $8/gallon because there are places that charge that much.

      I porived a link to the power compnay's web site where I purchase my power from.  I stated they have rates as high as $0.862 per kWhr for some rates plans.  My firend I just clicked on the link I provided to you previously.  Here's a screenshot which proves PG&E does in fact charge between 2 and 6 pm as mush as $0.862 per hWhr.  Dude click on the link and see for yourself PG&E charges upto $0.862 per kWhr.

       This is the link you provided (https://www.pge.com/tariffs/electric.shtml). That page (as all can see) is a list of links to numerous spreadsheets with rates. Nowhere on that page can I find what you posted or a link to that graph (and the pic and your post give no info about where it comes from) Of course PGE has a large website with no doubt multple sublinks, etc - so it could be there somewhere. As I said it would not surprise me that someone at some location - in some exremely hight TOU scenario would pay that much. That is irrelevant to the discussion at hand.  What is relevant is what most people pay most of the time and what an EV owner would pay when charging at low TOU hours.

      What the link you provided does show directly contradicts your claims (and it is dishonest of you to imply otherwise).  In multiple spreadsheets - it shows that in one of the most expensive electricity markets in the USA, electricity rates are no where near what you have claimed.  Again here is a screen shot from the most recent, TOP,  FRONT AND CENTER spreadsheet linked on that page. Other spreadsheets on that page that I've looked at show similar or lower rates (there are hundreds and I did not look at all of them).

      [(https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=525248;image)

      If you want to engage in constructive debate on this topic, back up all statements of fact with a linked reference and don't lie about what the links show (as any review of this thread will confirm you've repeatedly done).


      Thank you for being respectful.  I will do the same.
      If the issue is the cost of ownership can we go with the figures from the guy in the Tesla video? 

      I am an EV onwer and I am on a rate plan where the rates today vary from $0.12 to $0.45  I will tell you there are times when I have to charge when the rate is $0.45.  Not a fair compariesion to say gas prices are $8.00 /gal.  Gas here ranges from $3.25 to $4.00 for regular.  I don't think one could buy gas for  $8.00 gallon anywhere in California.


      But I will tell you when I have to use a public pay to charge charing station there are times when I have to pay the $0.45 or more to get a charge.   

      I do charge my car at the lowest rate most of the time.  So my average rate is probably $0.14 which is about a dime leass than what you keep saying.


      As I keep telling  you PG&E had 9 different rate plans for residental customers. E-1, E-6, E-7, E-9A, E-9B, EV-1, EV-B, ETOU-A and ETOU-B.  I beleive the figure you are looking at is the average of all of the different rates PG&E changes for ALL of the different rate plans.  This is NOT what a customers plays.  It's a clever math trick which provides a misleading answer.  We consume 75% of our electricty at off peak hours, and 15-20% at on-Peak.  Dollar wise what we pay for off-peak is the same as on-peak even though we use over 50% more during off-peak.

      But let's get back to the cost of powering an ICE vs. EV.  Can we used the Tesla's guys numbers?  If so I would be more than willing to go through those numbers with you.  Yes I am one data point.  But out of the 70+ power companies in California the vast majority of residents are getting their power from one of 4 power compnaies and they all have rates which are about the same.  So while I might be one data point, I would be a fair represnetaiton of anyone who buys power from the four big ones.


       

       

















      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 20, 2018, 06:36:46 pm
      The price at the superchargers is $0.26 per kWh. Plus taxes? IDK.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 21, 2018, 12:55:47 am
      The price at the superchargers is $0.26 per kWh. Plus taxes? IDK.

      And at non-superchargers?  In California there some charging stations also make you pay for parking while you charge.  So not only do you pay for the electricity to charge your car, one also has to pay for the space to park the car in so it can be charged.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 21, 2018, 12:59:43 am
      The price at the superchargers is $0.26 per kWh. Plus taxes? IDK.

      And at non-superchargers?  In California there some charging stations also make you pay for parking while you charge.  So not only do you pay for the electricity to charge your car, one also has to pay for the space to park the car in so it can be charged.
      There seems to be a lot of that globally, because the places are primarily commercial car parks. The chargers is supposed to enhance the value of the parking. The parking is not intended to devalue the charging.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 21, 2018, 03:44:44 am
      Per Tesla's website (https://www.tesla.com/supercharger), Model S and Model X drivers get 400 kWh of supercharging per year for free.  Since superchargers are meant for long road trips that probably covers most drivers usage.  Model 3 drivers are out of luck.

      But even at $0.26/kWh, the Tesla's fueling cost via Supercharger is much less than an equivalent performing ICE vehicle. (Tesla assumes a vehicle getting 21mpg which is pretty reasonable assumption given that only ICE muscle cars come close to matching a Teslas performance.  And $2.85/gallon is a generous assumption - gasoline is more expensive than that most places now).  OF course since most charging is done at home for much less ($0.07 - $0.15/kWh depending on location an TOU) the savings will be much greater.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=527648;image)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 21, 2018, 04:41:45 am
      Tesla”s web page pretty much agrees with what the guy in the video posted about energy costs between his Tesla EV and his ICE.  Cost to power either is pretty much the same.  Less than than what most people spend at a Starbucks in less than a month.

      These posts really have me wondering.....  What exactly are the advantages are of an EV.....  And I own one.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 21, 2018, 04:51:14 am
      Tesla”s web page pretty much agrees with what the guy in the video posted about energy costs between his Tesla EV and his ICE.  Cost to power either is pretty much the same.

       :palm:

      Per 1,500 miles:

      ICE - (21mpg, $2.85/gallon)  = $204

      Tesla charged via supercharger  ($0.26/kWh)   =   $106
      Tesla charged at Doug's house ($0.14/kWh -per his recent admission in reply #1839)  =  $57
      Telsa charged at my house ($0.07/kWh)  =  $29

      Yeah, "pretty much the same"  ::)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on September 21, 2018, 07:18:28 am
      This thread continues to be my one of my reliable daily sources of entertainment; I wonder how long it'll take before we're arguing over fractions of a cent in price.

      Please be reasonable to each other.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 08:19:11 am
      I'm sorry Mr. USA, but in Europe 21 MPG is a gas guzzler. This Skoda compares much better to a Model 3:

      ICE - (21mpg, $2.85/gallon)  = $204
      Tesla charged via supercharger  ($0.26/kWh)   =   $106

      Skoda Octavia TDI RS ICE (53 MPG, $2.85/gallon) = $80.6

      64 mpg(UK) = 53 mpg(US) = 4.4 litres/100 km
      https://www.parkers.co.uk/skoda/octavia/vrs-2013/20-tdi-cr-vrs-hatchback-5d/specs/ (https://www.parkers.co.uk/skoda/octavia/vrs-2013/20-tdi-cr-vrs-hatchback-5d/specs/)
      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=527789;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 08:38:55 am
      Tesla charged via supercharger  ($0.26/kWh)   =   $106

      That ^^^ would be 106/0.26= 407.7 kWh / 1500 miles => 272 Wh/mile = 16.9 kWh/100 km, which is simply not true, neither for a Model 3, nor much less for a Model S.

      Even the unbelievably good hyper optimistic figures of Mr. Boffin for a much smaller e-golf, are more than that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 08:48:06 am
      There's an impedance mismatch in this thread between the USA and Europe posters' views, due to the fact that our and their MPGs and fuel costs are completely different.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on September 21, 2018, 08:49:47 am
      Even in Europe, the numbers are such that an EV is well worth it, and assuming a smaller displacement VW Golf (@ 5.2l/100km or 54 ImpMPG) in the Netherlands @ 1.35/l , and electricity @ 0.22/kWh *4
      If I buy a year old car to knock a bit off the price (or in the case of ICE a lot) and because there was not much improvement from 2017 e-golf to 2018 it would take me around 10 years to pay off the difference compared to ICE.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: richard.cs on September 21, 2018, 09:35:32 am
      That ^^^ would be 106/0.26= 407.7 kWh / 1500 miles => 272 Wh/mile = 16.9 kWh/100 km, which is simply not true, neither for a Model 3, nor much less for a Model S.

      Even the unbelievably good hyper optimistic figures of Mr. Boffin for a much smaller e-golf, are more than that.

      Small cars can manage that. I get around 213 Wh/mile in a Zoe (measured from the battery), at 80% charging efficiency that would be 266 Wh/mile from the wall. Daily commute over mixed roads and weekly motorway trips. A model 3 is 26% heavier but that makes little difference to the power used, at speed it's all about the aerodynamic effects. It is 12% wider but 8% lower, with slightly more frontal cross-section I might expect it to use more power though the shape looks a bit more aerodynamic. Overall I could believe such numbers for a model 3 depending how it is driven.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 11:23:54 am
      Small cars can manage that. I get around 213 Wh/mile in a Zoe (measured from the battery), at 80% charging efficiency that would be 266 Wh/mile from the wall. Daily commute over mixed roads and weekly motorway trips. A model 3 is 26% heavier but that makes little difference to the power used, at speed it's all about the aerodynamic effects. It is 12% wider but 8% lower, with slightly more frontal cross-section I might expect it to use more power though the shape looks a bit more aerodynamic. Overall I could believe such numbers for a model 3 depending how it is driven.

      Seems to be the official EPA figures:

      https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-mpge-improves-2018/ (https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-mpge-improves-2018/)

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=527870;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 21, 2018, 11:47:22 am
      I'm sorry Mr. USA, but in Europe 21 MPG is a gas guzzler.
      I was responding to Doug saying that Tesla’s fueling price comparison was ”pretty much the same”.  21mpg was Teslas comparison number which is reasonable for a car with similar performance. Any car which can match a Tesla’s acceleration specs will be close to that {or worse).

      Quote
      This Skoda compares much better to a Model 3:

      ICE - (21mpg, $2.85/gallon)  = $204
      Tesla charged via supercharger  ($0.26/kWh)   =   $106

      Skoda Octavia TDI RS ICE (53 MPG, $2.85/gallon) = $80.6

      Really? Another dishonest comparisons  :palm:
      That car is a tin can, with a 0- 60mph time >8 sec.!
      The model 3 has a 0-60 time between  3.1 and 5.6 seconds (depending on options).  (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3). The torque comparison is even more dramatcally different.  They are not even in the same league!

      And even more dishonestly, you use Tesla’s very conservative USA gas price of $2.85/gal for a car that is not even sold in the USA.  We all know that gasoline or diesel is much, much more expensive in Europe.

      Why would you think such a dishonest comparison is relevant?

      That ^^^ would be 106/0.26= 407.7 kWh / 1500 miles => 272 Wh/mile = 16.9 kWh/100 km, which is simply not true, neither for a Model 3, nor much less for a Model S.

      Again, I was responding to Doug’s comment on Tesla’s comparison.  The published specs on the Model 3  (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3)say 16kWh/100 km). Accurate or not, those are the number’s hat Doug was responding to.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 01:39:18 pm
      They are very close in torques: Tesla 3 std: 416 Nm vs Skoda: 380 Nm, and in 1st gear the torque is times the demultiplication ratio: 2..3 times 380 Nm = 760..1140 Nm. Not available in Teslas.

      But who cares? Once you've got torque enough, and 180bhp/380Nm are more than plenty enough horses and torques for a family sedan, who cares? In $ per km they're pretty close too, almost a tie, to the dismay of EV fanboys like you. Not close at all in range though, where one's got only 220 miles and the other +700, nor in day to day practicality, because with one you've got to plan your trips around supercharger to supercharger and spend ~ one hour to refill, with the other you can go and refill anywhere in the world in just a couple of minutes.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=527954;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 01:48:39 pm
      [...] for a car with similar performance. [...]

      Similar performance in what? In range? In practicality? In price? In fit/finish/paint quality? Or just in the one figure you want to focus on?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 21, 2018, 02:35:46 pm
      [...] for a car with similar performance. [...]
      Similar performance in what? In range? In practicality? In price? In fit/finish/paint quality? Or just in the one figure you want to focus on?
      The car manufacturers already figured that out: target audience and size which equals segment / price bracket.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 21, 2018, 04:23:46 pm
      [...] for a car with similar performance. [...]

      Similar performance in what? In range? In practicality? In price? In fit/finish/paint quality? Or just in the one figure you want to focus on?

      OK I guess you’re  not a car person.  See Performance car (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performance_car).  It’s all about acceleration and speed and the Skoda is in a completely different league from the Tesla.

      What is the source of you Skoda torque number? The best torque for that car I can find is 320 Nm (https://www.zigwheels.com/newcars/Skoda/Octavia/specifications) - and that is for the model with a bigger engine NOT the one that gets 53mpg. And you chose the lowest manufacurer quoted Model 3 torque spec (range is 416-639 N-m).  It appears as if even within your already dishonest comparison, you are cherry picking.

      If it’s max torque you’re quoting then the base model Model 3 pulls 550 ft-lb or 746 N-m !!! (https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-model-3-hits-the-dyno-has-all-the-torque-123826.html)

      You really need to compare torque curves and anyone who know cars can tell you a 4 banger diesel is not gonna be in the same league as a Tesla Model 3.

      And what about price of fuel? What does diesel (or gasoline) cost in Europe, where the Skoda is sold?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 21, 2018, 05:00:11 pm
      [...] for a car with similar performance. [...]
      Similar performance in what? In range? In practicality? In price? In fit/finish/paint quality? Or just in the one figure you want to focus on?
      OK I guess you’re  not a car person.  See Performance car (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performance_car).  It’s all about acceleration and speed and the Skoda is in a completely different league from the Tesla.

      What is the source of you Skoda torque number? The best torque for that car I can find is 320 Nm (https://www.zigwheels.com/newcars/Skoda/Octavia/specifications) - and that is for the model with a bigger engine NOT the one that gets 53mpg. And you chose the lowest manufacurer quoted Model 3 torque spec (range is 416-639 N-m).  It appears as
      If you start talking about torque and cars you should ask your money back from your physics teacher. Torque is marketing BS when it comes to cars. Do the math... hint: a transmission works like an impedance matching transformer... Which is also why EVs have relatively low top speeds compared to ICE based cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 21, 2018, 05:08:41 pm
      As there seems to be continuous argument over consumption numbers, here is a link to the Canadian official EV mileage numbers: https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363)

      Chevrolet Bolt: 16.4 / 19.0 / 17.6
      Ford Focus EV:  17.7 / 21.8 / 19.6
      Nissan Leaf:    16.9 / 21.1 / 18.8
      Tesla 3LR:      15.3 / 17.0 / 16.1
      Tesla S:        21.5 / 21.0 / 21.3
      VW eGolf:       16.8 / 18.6 / 17.4

      (city / hwy / combined)

      Comparing a European spec Skoda Diesel (not available in North America due to stricter diesel emission standards) @ 4.4l/100km, to a Tesla 3 LR @ 16.1 kWh/100km

      Vancouver Canada (1.49/l, 0.093kWh):
      Tesla: C$1.50
      Skoda: C$6.56

      California (3.49/USgal = 0.92/l, 0.48/kWh day, 0.13/kWh night)
      Tesla: $7.73 (day)
      Tesla: $2.09 (night)
      Tesla: $4.19 (Tesla Supercharger 0.26/kWh)

      Skoda: $4.05

      Netherlands (1.35/l, 0.22/kWh)
      Tesla: €3.54
      Skoda: €5.94

      Of course I'm not factoring in things like EVs being exempt from road taxes in some countries (like NL) which would also sway the numbers further to an EV.

      Given the Tesla 3 competes against the BMW 3 series, Mercedes C, comparing it to the smaller Skoda is silly, but you wanted to compare those two.

      Again, if you're going to attempt to post numbers here, please use consistency in your sources.

      (modified to use consistent California electricity prices)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 21, 2018, 05:21:49 pm
      [...] for a car with similar performance. [...]
      Similar performance in what? In range? In practicality? In price? In fit/finish/paint quality? Or just in the one figure you want to focus on?
      OK I guess you’re  not a car person.  See Performance car (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performance_car).  It’s all about acceleration and speed and the Skoda is in a completely different league from the Tesla.

      What is the source of you Skoda torque number? The best torque for that car I can find is 320 Nm (https://www.zigwheels.com/newcars/Skoda/Octavia/specifications) - and that is for the model with a bigger engine NOT the one that gets 53mpg. And you chose the lowest manufacurer quoted Model 3 torque spec (range is 416-639 N-m).  It appears as
      If you start talking about torque and cars you should ask your money back from your physics teacher. Torque is marketing BS when it comes to cars. Do the math... hint: a transmission works like an impedance matching transformer... Which is also why EVs have relatively low top speeds compared to ICE based cars.

      What makes you think that a Tesla doesn't have a final drive reduction as well?  Given the Tesla motors can spin at something silly like 15,000 rpm, the final reduction in the top gear would be probably triple what a diesel Skoda would be in top gear.

      Also, the torque curve for an electric motor is basically flat with virtually 100% of its torque available from zero to maximum rpm
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 21, 2018, 05:32:54 pm
      Torque is marketing BS when it comes to cars.

      Uh, clearly you know nothing about the performance car world. Torque curves are everything. It is directly proportional to horsepower and directly proprotional to acceleration.

      There is no machine that measures a cars horsepower. Instead torque is measured on a Dyno.  Horsepower = (Torque x RPMs) / 5252

      Transferring engine torque to torque at the wheels depends on the drivetrain which in an ICE involves a traditional transmission.  That is just one reason why EVs have inherent advantage in torque/acceleration.    Why do you think a Tesla Model S P100D has the fastest 0-60mph time of any production car ever (https://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-s/2017/2017-tesla-model-s-p100d-first-test-review/).

      Quote
      Which is also why EVs have relatively low top speeds compared to ICE based cars
         :palm:   You're wrong (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-140-mph-top-speed-salt-flats/). And that's the Model 3.  The Model S has an ever higher top speed. (https://electrek.co/2016/03/23/tesla-model-s-p90d-ludicrous-top-speed-acceleration/) Both Teslas I believe have their top speed limited by software (140mph for the Model 3,  155 mph for the Model S) because you know, no one should be driving faster than that on public roads...

      You really should stick to electronics and your Ford Focus.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: drussell on September 21, 2018, 06:04:30 pm
      Uh, clearly you know nothing about the performance car world. Torque curves are everything. It is directly proportional to horsepower and directly proprotional to acceleration.

      Indeed.   :palm:

      Quote
      There is no machine that measures a cars horsepower. Instead torque is measured on a Dyno.  Horsepower = (Torque x RPMs) / 5252

      Yeah, and when you know the math behind the relationship, it is always interestingly laughable when you see some published torque & horsepower graph where the two lines do not intersect at 5252 RPM.  :bullshit:  Gee, how can I tell that your graph is bogus?? 

      Quote
      Transferring engine torque to torque at the wheels depends on the drivetrain which in an ICE involves a traditional transmission.

      Exactly.  You start with X amount of torque at the crankshaft but the tire size, gearing, any torque multiplication in a torque converter, etc. all determine how that power is put to the ground.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 06:15:28 pm
      OK I guess you’re  not a car person.  See Performance car (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performance_car).  It’s all about acceleration and speed and the Skoda is in a completely different league from the Tesla.

      If torque were the only thing that matters a 900 Nm Ford Pinto would be even better. And Teslas leave much to be desired in other chapters compared to European cars. E.g. the cheap, awful interior and poor build quality and horrible fit and finish.

      Quote
      What is the source of your Skoda torque number? The best torque for that car I can find is 320 Nm (https://www.zigwheels.com/newcars/Skoda/Octavia/specifications) - and that is for the model with a bigger engine NOT the one that gets 53mpg. And you chose the lowest manufacurer quoted Model 3 torque spec (range is 416-639 N-m).  It appears as if even within your already dishonest comparison, you are cherry picking.

      It's in a previous message, with a picture and url.

      Quote
      If it’s max torque you’re quoting then the base model Model 3 pulls 550 ft-lb or 746 N-m !!! (https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-model-3-hits-the-dyno-has-all-the-torque-123826.html)

      Now you're lying, that's not the torque of the base Model 3, and for the price of the better one with the most torques (the AWD Performance) you can buy two Octavias.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Specifications (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3#Specifications)

      Quote
      And what about price of fuel? What does diesel (or gasoline) cost in Europe, where the Skoda is sold?

      But our ICE cars aren't gas guzzlers, that's why the cost per km is pretty similar / much closer here whether you like it or not.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 06:22:40 pm
      Torque is marketing BS when it comes to cars.
      Uh, clearly you know nothing about the performance car world.

      Speaking of performance cars, f1 engines do not have much torque, just so you know...

      That said, torque makes driving a car easier and more pleasant. But as the wheels can only transfer so much force to the road, any excess of torque above the limit only serves to make the wheels spin, to do burnouts and doughnuts.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 21, 2018, 06:29:39 pm
      OK I guess you’re  not a car person.  See Performance car (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Performance_car).  It’s all about acceleration and speed and the Skoda is in a completely different league from the Tesla.

      If torque were the only thing that maters a 900 Nm Ford Pinto would be even better. And Teslas leave much to be desired in other chapters compared to European cars. E.g. the cheap, awful interior and poor build quality and horrible fit and finish.

      Quote
      What is the source of your Skoda torque number? The best torque for that car I can find is 320 Nm (https://www.zigwheels.com/newcars/Skoda/Octavia/specifications) - and that is for the model with a bigger engine NOT the one that gets 53mpg. And you chose the lowest manufacurer quoted Model 3 torque spec (range is 416-639 N-m).  It appears as if even within your already dishonest comparison, you are cherry picking.

      It's in a previous message, with a picture and url.
      Where?  Is see the pic. There is no URL. Why not post it here?


      Quote
      Quote
      If it’s max torque you’re quoting then the base model Model 3 pulls 550 ft-lb or 746 N-m !!! (https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-model-3-hits-the-dyno-has-all-the-torque-123826.html)

      Now you're lying, that's not the torque of the base Model 3

      I guess you have a reading comprehension problem (or are just being dishonest again). It's the base model. Watch the video. And here is a direct quote from that link (emphasis mine):

      Quote
      it was only a matter of time until the entry-level model landed on the dyno.
      Well, the dyno videos are now in and, as expected, the EV makes loads of torque. So far, we've come across two rolling road adventures, one delivered by Drag Times and the other by the Tesla Repair Channel.

      You'll find both YouTube videos at the bottom of the page, along with the two results - the two stunts delivered quite different hp numbers, with the first YT label showing 281/336 hp and the second 393 ponies.

      As for the twist, around 550 lb-ft is a safe answer - keep in mind that all the numbers discussed here are at the wheels.
      Perhaps you don't understand the difference between manufacturer listed Torque specs and real world, at the wheels max torque numbers. I was very specific in my post.

      Quote
      Quote
      And what about price of fuel? What does diesel (or gasoline) cost in Europe, where the Skoda is sold?

      But our ICE cars aren't gas guzzlers, and that's why the cost per km is pretty similar / much closer here whether you like it or not.

      You are dodging the question. You dishonestly used the $2.85/gallon US gasoline cost (optimistic) for a diesel car sold only in  Europe.
      BTW - there are plenty of fuel efficient ICE cars in the US.

       AND, NO, the cost per km is not similar at all. This thread has mulitple referenced links of honest comparisons showing that the EV cost is much lower. All you have is blatantly dishonest comparisons - yet as Boffin showed even your cherry picked econ-car Skoda is much more expensive to drive.

      Why do you continue to ignore the facts?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 06:35:50 pm
      Why not post it here?

      Message #1847
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 06:41:10 pm
      Perhaps you don't understand the difference between manufacturer listed Torque specs and real world, at the wheels max torque numbers. I was very specific in my post.

      Were you? Show me where, please:

      Quote
      If it’s max torque you’re quoting then the base model Model 3 pulls 550 ft-lb or 746 N-m !!!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 21, 2018, 06:45:41 pm
      The title of this thread is "When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?"

      So far the Anti-EVers have tried to argue based on cost of fuel and maintenance.  Despite cherry picked comparisons, they have soundly lost that debate (yet they continue to ignore the posted, referenced facts).

      But - the real question is when will EVs become mainstream and it should be obvious to anyone that cost of ownership is not the primary factor people use in choosing a vehicle.  Though EVswin on that front, they will not become mainstream only because of that. There are lots of psychological, subjective factors that go into a car purchase decision.

      For example, here in the USA the top selling vehicle for many years running has been the Ford F-series pickup - not an inexpensive or fuel efficient car. Far from it.

      European consumers may, in general be more efficiency conscious but even there, the top selling cars are not the least expensive or most fuel efficient cars.

      IMO, EVs will become mainstream over the next 10-20 years (or perhaps sooner if current exponential growth rates continue) because of several factors:

      1.) Ongoing improvements in EV vehicles pricing and more widespread availability and model options.
      2.) Social stigma associated with driving ICE vehicles as the effects of global warming become increasingly apparent
      3.) Increasingly cheaper cost of ownership due to the continuing long term trends in energy prices.

      That said, IMO, it's a race to the bottom, since eventually energy scarcity and affordability will make driving any car more and more of a luxury for the lucky few.  In 30 years, there may be more EVs on the road than ICE vehicles, but overall the total number of cars will be fewer.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 06:55:10 pm
      Both Teslas I believe have their top speed limited by software (140mph for the Model 3,  155 mph for the Model S) because you know, no one should be driving faster than that on public roads...

      140 mph is not a safe speed for a Model 3 because it can't brake properly (have you not seen the news?), anyway, it's less than the top speed of a Skoda that's about half the price... lol.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on September 21, 2018, 06:59:56 pm
      ICE trolls are very active here.
      Guys, The ICE age ends now. Get over it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 21, 2018, 07:00:23 pm
      Perhaps you don't understand the difference between manufacturer listed Torque specs and real world, at the wheels max torque numbers. I was very specific in my post.

      Were you? Show me where, please:

      OK, so it's a reading comprehension problem. From your very own post quoting me:

      Quote from: GeorgeOfTheJungle
      Quote from: mtdoc
      If it’s max torque you’re quoting then the base model Model 3 pulls 550 ft-lb or 746 N-m !!!

      140 mph is not a safe speed for a Model 3 because it can't brake properly (have you not seen the news?), anyway, it's less than the top speed of a Skoda that's about half the price... lol.
      :palm:   Yeah, sure.  So you're basing performance on top speed now?  :-DD 

      And with your torque numbers, you've chosen to cherry pick the top of the line Skoda which from what I can find costs about the same as the much higher performance base model Tesla Model 3
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 07:03:36 pm
      The title of this thread is "When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?"

      So far the Anti-EVers have tried to argue based on cost of fuel and maintenance.  Despite cherry picked comparisons, they have soundly lost that debate (yet they continue to ignore the posted, referenced facts).

      But - the real question is when will EVs become mainstream and it should be obvious to anyone that cost of ownership is not the primary factor people use in choosing a vehicle.  Though EVswin on that front, they will not become mainstream only because of that. There are lots of psychological, subjective factors that go into a car purchase decision.

      For example, here in the USA the top selling vehicle for many years running has been the Ford F-series pickup - not an inexpensive or fuel efficient car. Far from it.

      European consumers may, in general be more efficiency conscious but even there, the top selling cars are not the least expensive or most fuel efficient cars.

      IMO, EVs will become mainstream over the next 10-20 years (or perhaps sooner if current exponential growth rates continue) because of several factors:

      1.) Ongoing improvements in EV vehicles pricing and more widespread availability and model options.
      2.) Social stigma associated with driving ICE vehicles as the effects of global warming become increasingly apparent
      3.) Increasingly cheaper cost of ownership due to the continuing long term trends in energy prices.

      That said, IMO, it's a race to the bottom, since eventually energy scarcity and affordability will make driving any car more and more of a luxury for the lucky few.  In 30 years, there may be more EVs on the road than ICE vehicles, but overall the total number of cars will be fewer.

      I mostly agree, modulo the AGW/Climate change hysteria and your erroneous real world EV cost calculations. But yeah, EVs are the future, a future that's worse than the present.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on September 21, 2018, 07:15:15 pm
      Quote
      But yeah, EVs are the future.
      Yes.
      Quote
      it's a future that's worse than the present.
      Nope.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 21, 2018, 07:31:42 pm
      Torque is marketing BS when it comes to cars.
      Uh, clearly you know nothing about the performance car world. Torque curves are everything. It is directly proportional to horsepower and directly proprotional to acceleration.
      Again: look in any book on physics and accelleration. None of the formulas will show torque! Torque is a number introduced to hide the fact that ICE engines only reach there specified power output at a specific RPM (or some have maximum power at a specific RPM range). Having a flat torque line makes a car feel fast but that is more to satisfy consumers. Research into how people experience cars has proven that the fastest accelleration doesn't feel like the fastest accelleration (*). If you look at the physics formulas you'll see that the only thing that makes a car go faster is to put energy into it. For that you need power and not torque. An engine with has 100 torques and 1000 power will accellerate faster than en engine with 1000 torques and 100 power. Math just doesn't lie and you cannot change the laws of physics.

      * For kicks try a car which has a constant maximum power area in the power/RPM curve. Instinctively you'll change gears up when you get to the constant power area because it seems like the engine stops doing it's work (the torque will get lower). But you shouldn't because you'll get out of the maximum power area and accellerate slower. Again: laws of physics.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 21, 2018, 07:33:22 pm
      Quote
      it's a future that's worse than the present.
      Nope.

      Yes, because the batteries we have are a very poor substitute for the liquid hydrocarbon fuels we're using today.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 21, 2018, 08:05:03 pm
      All this crap about torque, 0-60 acceleration times and high-end speeds is all BS when it comes down to figuring out transportation costs.  The comparison we are attempting to compare is the ACTUAL energy cost for transporting an individual or family in a passenger vehicle in an ICE vs EV.

      Don't matter if you want to compare a Tesla with a Skoda or a Bolt with a VW.  In the end they both require energy to propel the car and the people in it from one location to another.  We are of course talking safely and at a reasonable speed.  Just as MPG vary between makes and models of cars and how one drives them, energy prices also vary.


      To do this we have to use actual data points and not the BS MPGs the car companies scam and submit to the government.  If you want to know how the car companies scam the government MPG tests take a look at the video posted below.  So please not government, Tesla or any other car manufactures spin numbers.  Same for using average electricity prices.  No one person pays the average price for electricity.  We all pay a bit more or less, that's why it's called the average price.

      So folks can we use actual numbers for whatever car you drive and the way you drive it? 

      I will ask everyone to look at my actual numbers for gas and electricity I subsided in for the guy who did the 10,000 miles calculation for his Tesla and Pontiac.  Substituting the cost California PG&E customers pay for electricity and gasoline in place of his there is very little monetary difference between paying for electricity or gasoline.  Now to be fair PG&E has 9 different rate plans.  I am on one of the two EV TOU rate plans our power company offers.  So, for an EV car owner in theory this is the most cost-effective rate plan for EV owners.

      With PG&E about to increase our electrical rates next year this is going to change the energy costs.  While ICE are a bit more expensive to purchase energy right now, next year when electrical rates increase EV vehicles will defiantly cost more power.  No question about it for Californians.



      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k159M8QhCIE&t=22s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k159M8QhCIE&t=22s)


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 21, 2018, 08:53:27 pm
      Quote
      it's a future that's worse than the present.
      Nope.

      Yes, because the batteries we have are a very poor substitute for hydrocarbon fuels.

      A statement like that, without anything to back it up

      In my (real world, I own one) case:
      The Upsides

      The downsides

      I would argue that for city dwellers, the upsides far outweigh the downsides. If you have long-haul distances involved, it's probably not for you.  As long as you're driving less than 200km/day 95% of the time (which is almost everyone), EV is the way to go.

      As for the "When will they become mainstream", the answer is approx 3 more years. 
      3 yrs: probably 20% market share, and 20% certainly counts as 'mainstream'
      6 yrs: 50% market share

      I think the next big leap in EV adoption is going to be delivery vans. I already see UPS trucks that are CNG, and I expect pretty much every new city-based UPS/FedEx/Postal truck will be electric within 5 years. All of those Mercedes Sprinter/Nissan NV/Ford Econoline/Ford Transit Connect you see in the city, they're all next.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 21, 2018, 09:06:53 pm
      Quote
      it's a future that's worse than the present.
      Nope.

      Yes, because the batteries we have are a very poor substitute for hydrocarbon fuels.

      A statement like that, without anything to back it up

      In my (real world, I own one) case:
      The Upsides
      • 1/8th the Fuel Cost
      • Lower Scheduled Maintenance Costs
      • Lower emmissions
      • Quietest car I've ever owned

      The downsides
      • higher acquisition cost (will be paid in 50-60,000km)
      • lower range (approx 220km)
      • 1hr to recharge (on a fast charger)

      I would argue that for city dwellers, the upsides far outweigh the downsides. If you have long-haul distances involved, it's probably not for you.  As long as you're driving less than 200km/day 95% of the time (which is almost everyone), EV is the way to go.

      As for the "When will they become mainstream", the answer is approx 3 more years. 
      3 yrs: probably 20% market share, and 20% certainly counts as 'mainstream'
      6 yrs: 50% market share

      I think the next big leap in EV adoption is going to be delivery vans. I already see UPS trucks that are CNG, and I expect pretty much every new city-based UPS/FedEx/Postal truck will be electric within 5 years. All of those Mercedes Sprinter/Nissan NV/Ford Econoline/Ford Transit Connect you see in the city, they're all next.

      You are offering subjective data when the guy in the Tesal video offered objective data.  To do a fair compaision of energy costs to power both vehicals for about a year or 10,000 miles let's use the formulas the guy in the Tesla video provided.

      What is the cost for electricy where you live?
      How much is regular gas where you live?

      We aren't factoring in the cost of the car, maitannce or anything else.  What ware are trying to compare is the cost for the energy to provide power to the vehicle for 10,000 miles.


       






      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 21, 2018, 10:17:34 pm
      As for the "When will they become mainstream", the answer is approx 3 more years. 
      3 yrs: probably 20% market share, and 20% certainly counts as 'mainstream'
      6 yrs: 50% market share
      Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure. I see mtdoc throwing numbers around like using 900kWh per month. In the EU 350kWh per month for a 4 person household is already a lot because a lot of homes are heated using gas. I used over 450kWh last month and I got a letter from the power company! I hope this makes clear that EVs will add a substantial extra load on the distribution grid in residantial areas. And then there is still the problem that a typical EV can't pull a caravan and the charge times are long.  Public charging infrastructure is still in the infancy stage. Try to find a hotel where you can fully recharge an EV over night. For example: On Booking.com you can find 1560 hotels in Paris. Charging an EV is possible at 59 of them. It isn't much better in other cities. Due to lack of parking space and ownership taxes people in Europe typically don't have a whole fleet of cars. Instead a car is bought based on 0.01% of the trips so the argument that an EV is good for 95% of the trips isn't going to cut it. It must be good for 100% of the trips or the majority of the people aren't going to buy an EV. Last but not least there is the resale value driven by the cost of replacing the battery which may increases the TCO a lot. Also let's not forget how the electricity prices are likely going to increase when fossil fuel power plants are being shut down. Besides that Hydrogen and bio-fuels are still in the race so the EV may even die a slow dead (again). All in all I don't see EVs becoming mainstream for consumers in the Europe for at least another 20 years IF it even happens.

      Currently electric vehicles are only good for well defined use cases like busses, taxis, trucks and delivery vehicles where the charging infrastructure can be concentrated in one place.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 21, 2018, 10:41:08 pm
      ICE trolls are very active here.

      Indeed. They all 3 continue to ignore all the objective, referenced data presented. And I see Fact Free Doug is back to his old ways relying on that obnoxious Aussie dude's videos.  :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 22, 2018, 05:52:40 am
      You are offering subjective data when the guy in the Tesal video offered objective data.  To do a fair compaision of energy costs to power both vehicals for about a year or 10,000 miles let's use the formulas the guy in the Tesla video provided.

      What is the cost for electricy where you live?
      How much is regular gas where you live?

      We aren't factoring in the cost of the car, maitannce or anything else.  What ware are trying to compare is the cost for the energy to provide power to the vehicle for 10,000 miles.

      Please see: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1833074/#msg1833074 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1833074/#msg1833074)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 22, 2018, 06:08:27 am
      ...
      Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
      ...

      Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

      Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

      Lastly, You are kidding, right?
      From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?

      I know a number of North Americans who drive electric cars, charge them solely at home, using just 1kW chargers plugged into a NEMA 5-15.  The charge available in 14-16 hrs that a vehicle is typically parked overnight is much greater than the average commute of a European. This website *1 implies the average Dutch person commutes on 22.6km each way.  Assuming a 20kWh/100km vehicle, that's less than 10kWh, or just a few hrs to charge on a normal household 230V outlet.


      *1 https://www.iamexpat.nl/career/employment-news/more-half-employees-netherlands-commute-work (https://www.iamexpat.nl/career/employment-news/more-half-employees-netherlands-commute-work)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 22, 2018, 08:00:45 am
      [...]
      California (3.49/USgal = 0.92/l, 0.48/kWh day, 0.13/kWh night)
      Tesla: $7.73 (day)
      Tesla: $2.09 (night)
      Tesla: $4.19 (Tesla Supercharger 0.26/kWh)

      Skoda: $4.05
      [...]
      Given the Tesla 3 competes against the BMW 3 series, Mercedes C, comparing it to the smaller Skoda is silly
      [...]

      Sorry, watt?

      Tesla Model 3 4.69 m
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3)
      BMW 3 series 4.63 m
      https://www.parkers.co.uk/bmw/3-series/saloon-2012/specs/ (https://www.parkers.co.uk/bmw/3-series/saloon-2012/specs/)
      Mercedes-Benz C-Class 4.68 m
      https://www.parkers.co.uk/mercedes-benz/c-class/saloon-2014/specs/ (https://www.parkers.co.uk/mercedes-benz/c-class/saloon-2014/specs/)
      Skoda Octavia 4.68 m
      https://www.parkers.co.uk/skoda/octavia/vrs-2013/specs/ (https://www.parkers.co.uk/skoda/octavia/vrs-2013/specs/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 22, 2018, 08:09:20 am
      Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?

      Many live in flats in big-ish cities and park on the street so yeah, no access to any schuko that's next to the car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 22, 2018, 08:13:30 am
      [...]
      California (3.49/USgal = 0.92/l, 0.48/kWh day, 0.13/kWh night)
      Tesla: $7.73 (day)
      Tesla: $2.09 (night)
      Tesla: $4.19 (Tesla Supercharger 0.26/kWh)

      Skoda: $4.05
      [...]
      Given the Tesla 3 competes against the BMW 3 series, Mercedes C, comparing it to the smaller Skoda is silly
      [...]

      Sorry, watt?

      Tesla Model 3 4.69 m
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3)
      BMW 3 series 4.63 m
      https://www.parkers.co.uk/bmw/3-series/saloon-2012/specs/ (https://www.parkers.co.uk/bmw/3-series/saloon-2012/specs/)
      Mercedes-Benz C-Class 4.68 m
      https://www.parkers.co.uk/mercedes-benz/c-class/saloon-2014/specs/ (https://www.parkers.co.uk/mercedes-benz/c-class/saloon-2014/specs/)
      Skoda Octavia 4.68 m
      https://www.parkers.co.uk/skoda/octavia/vrs-2013/specs/ (https://www.parkers.co.uk/skoda/octavia/vrs-2013/specs/)

      And don’t forget the Jaguar E type. It was 4.7m long. Just as big as a Tesla!  :o

      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/73/SeriesoneJag.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 22, 2018, 08:18:20 am
      LOL, I don't get it, @mtdoc ? This is a skoda octavia:

      (https://a.ccdn.es/cnet/contents/media/skoda/octavia/1208412.jpg//937x624cut/)
      (https://ipravda.sk/res/2018/05/29/thumbs/skoda-octavia-2020-testovacia-mula_01-clanokW.jpg)
      (https://s1.cdn.autoevolution.com/images/news/gallery/skoda-octavia-goes-from-london-to-the-nurburgring-and-back-on-one-tank-of-diesel_2.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 22, 2018, 08:21:22 am
      LOL, I don't get it, @mtdoc ?

      Smaller != shorter.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 22, 2018, 08:22:49 am
      LOL, I don't get it, @mtdoc ?
      Smaller != shorter.

      Since when?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 22, 2018, 08:30:22 am
      LOL, I don't get it, @mtdoc ?
      Smaller != shorter.

      Since when?

      Since the Big Bang.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=528350;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 22, 2018, 08:37:26 am
      As there seems to be continuous argument over consumption numbers, here is a link to the Canadian official EV mileage numbers: https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363)

      Stupid bureaucrats copy-pasting numbers: without knowing how do they arrive at the figures, it's ~ useless...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 22, 2018, 08:38:33 am
      @mtdoc today's in troll mood  :-DD
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 22, 2018, 08:46:20 am
      that obnoxious Aussie dude's videos.  :palm:

      Somewhat obnoxious maybe, but everything he says in that video is correct.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on September 22, 2018, 09:34:02 am
      ...
      Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
      ...

      Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

      Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

      Lastly, You are kidding, right?
      From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?

      I know a number of North Americans who drive electric cars, charge them solely at home, using just 1kW chargers plugged into a NEMA 5-15.  The charge available in 14-16 hrs that a vehicle is typically parked overnight is much greater than the average commute of a European. This website *1 implies the average Dutch person commutes on 22.6km each way.  Assuming a 20kWh/100km vehicle, that's less than 10kWh, or just a few hrs to charge on a normal household 230V outlet.


      *1 https://www.iamexpat.nl/career/employment-news/more-half-employees-netherlands-commute-work (https://www.iamexpat.nl/career/employment-news/more-half-employees-netherlands-commute-work)

      One of the previous owners of my house must have been a visionary ;D
      I have a stonking great 3 phase power outlet in the car port, which I never use.

      As 3 phase is quite commonly connected to Australian homes, (but not normally made available at outlets) higher performance chargers could take advantage of the better efficiency & power output available if such outlets were retro fitted.

      I don't know if this is at all common in other 230/240 volt countries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 22, 2018, 09:40:12 am
      ...
      Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
      ...

      Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

      Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

      Lastly, You are kidding, right?
      From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?
      You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV. And even if people have their own driveway it will only fit 1 car so how about charging the second car at the same time? All in all charging at home is a big no-go in Europe. The Dutch Automobile Association (RAI) has estimated that the NL needs 3 million public charging spots for EVs to be viable. That is more than 1 charging spot per 3 cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream
      Post by: gildasd on September 22, 2018, 01:40:40 pm
      ...
      Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
      ...
      Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

      Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

      Lastly, You are kidding, right?
      From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?
      You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV. And even if people have their own driveway it will only fit 1 car so how about charging the second car at the same time? All in all charging at home is a big no-go in Europe. The Dutch Automobile Association (RAI) has estimated that the NL needs 3 million public charging spots for EVs to be viable. That is more than 1 charging spot per 3 cars.
      I have family in France, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland and England.
      Only my mother who has a flat on the edge of the Old Nice would struggle to home charge.
      These are people living in the countryside, suburbia and inner cities.

      Of all the places I have lived (28 moves in 40 years), I can only recall two flats in Paris where home chargingwould have been impossible  - but getting petrol was also hard, the only close fuel station that did not grossly overcharge was on the périphérique, and that seemed to have a queue night & day...
      Getting petrol before between 7am and 20pm was at least a one hour job.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 22, 2018, 05:22:52 pm
      ICE trolls are very active here.

      Indeed. They all 3 continue to ignore all the objective, referenced data presented. And I see Fact Free Doug is back to his old ways relying on that obnoxious Aussie dude's videos.  :palm:

      And what's wrong with the information presented in his videos?   You have failed to rebut anything he has stated with any credible evidence. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 22, 2018, 06:28:56 pm
      You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV.

      We've covered this ground before. There are densely populated cities in the US and Canada as well. It's also a fact that cities here and in Europe are surrounded by suburbs and countryside.  That is where the use of automobiles is highest.  Those living in densely populated city centers without a parking spot either do not own automobiles or if they do, they drive them infrequently (for obvious reasons!).  For many that is a good thing and is one reason why they choose to live in a city center.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 22, 2018, 07:58:26 pm
      You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV.

      We've covered this ground before. There are densely populated cities in the US and Canada as well. It's also a fact that cities here and in Europe are surrounded by suburbs and countryside.  That is where the use of automobiles is highest.  Those living in densely populated city centers without a parking spot either do not own automobiles or if they do, they drive them infrequently (for obvious reasons!).  For many that is a good thing and is one reason why they choose to live in a city center.

      That's not correct in the for most of the largest populated cites in the US.  Might be true for New York which is the largest populated city in the US, but it certainly isn't true for #2, #4, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10 most populated cities in the US.  Not sure about #3 and #5.  Just try an live in any West Coast large city without a car.  Appears you've never been to LA, San Jose/Silicon Valley, San Francisco Bay Area.  Just try and get around or hold onto a job without a car.  Typical travel time to see a doctor in the San Francisco using public transpiration is 3-4 hours.  With a car 40-60 minutes.

      Cities like San Francisco and San Francisco Bay Area, San Jose/Silicon Valley, Portland, Los Angeles/Southern California and many other cities on the west coast are water and land locked which making it impossible to build any new public transpiration systems or freeways.  Just as 150 years ago one needed a horse for transpiration on the West Coast, one still needs a horseless carriage to live. 

       

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 22, 2018, 08:35:58 pm
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s92G6s3pyGg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s92G6s3pyGg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream
      Post by: nctnico on September 22, 2018, 09:11:02 pm
      ...
      Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
      ...
      Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

      Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

      Lastly, You are kidding, right?
      From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?
      You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV. And even if people have their own driveway it will only fit 1 car so how about charging the second car at the same time? All in all charging at home is a big no-go in Europe. The Dutch Automobile Association (RAI) has estimated that the NL needs 3 million public charging spots for EVs to be viable. That is more than 1 charging spot per 3 cars.
      I have family in France, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland and England.
      Only my mother who has a flat on the edge of the Old Nice would struggle to home charge.
      These are people living in the countryside, suburbia and inner cities.

      Of all the places I have lived (28 moves in 40 years),
      But this is just a single data point. I travel a lot all across Europe and the common feature of most homes is that they are on a small piece of land. And I'm not talking about city centres but the suburbs. In general land is expensive in Europe so people are not going to waste that on parking space if they can park for free on the street. But even if charging at home isn't a problem there are still plenty of other reasons an EV isn't suitable. EVs just aren't drop-in replacements for ICE cars. It is simple as that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream
      Post by: boffin on September 22, 2018, 09:28:57 pm
      EVs just aren't drop-in replacements for ICE cars. It is simple as that.

      100 years ago I'm sure you were saying that ICE cars aren't a drop-in replacement for horses as well.

      Is there a change required in behaviours?  Sure
      Is it worth it in the long term? Yes
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream
      Post by: nctnico on September 22, 2018, 10:28:47 pm
      EVs just aren't drop-in replacements for ICE cars. It is simple as that.

      100 years ago I'm sure you were saying that ICE cars aren't a drop-in replacement for horses as well.
      Comparing ICE cars to horses  :palm: But if you want to go that route I'd say an EV is more like a horse. It can only run for short periods and then needs a long rest.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 22, 2018, 11:33:52 pm
      Nice video, thanks for posting.  One point the "expert" made which I don't agree with.   How is it an ICE car uses more gas in the winter to warm the engine then when it's warmer.  Seems to me it would be the same or even less.  An ICE is trying to dissipate heat.  If it's colder outside then it doesn't have to work as hard to dissipate the heat. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream
      Post by: mtdoc on September 23, 2018, 02:42:43 am
      But this is just a single data point. I travel a lot all across Europe and the common feature of most homes is that they are on a small piece of land. And I'm not talking about city centres but the suburbs. In general land is expensive in Europe so people are not going to waste that on parking space if they can park for free on the street.
      You keep repeating this nonsense about people in Europe not having a place to charge an EV but it is still not true. I've travelled extensively in Europe for as long as 8 months at a time and there are very large suburbs surrounding every large city center and there are many suburban type areas scattered across the countryside.  It may be true that the average lot size of a European suburban home is smaller than those in the US but this nonsense you keep repeating about people in Europe not being able charge an EV is just not true no matter how many times you say it.  Suburban and countryside homes in Europe have driveways and often garages just like the homes in North America do.  If anything, the lack of wide open uninhabited spaces and close proximity of most people to a town or city center means that EV are even more sensible in Europe than they are in many parts of North America.   Anyone can pull up Google maps and confirm this for themselves. 

      Another advantage of Europe for EV adoption is that European countries generally have better social systems and attitudes regarding community infrastructure development. This means that build out of community charging stations will be easier to achieve.   

      EVs are well suited to Europe and the rapid rise of EV adoption in Europe confirms this. See pic below. 

      Quote
      EVs just aren't drop-in replacements for ICE cars. It is simple as that.
      Straw Man. No one is saying that.



      From Europe EV Sales: (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-euefta-plug-in-vehicle-volumes-2/)
      (http://www.ev-volumes.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/EUR-A-6-2018.png)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream
      Post by: gildasd on September 23, 2018, 06:20:43 am
      ...
      Maybe for some areas but I doubt that will be true for large countries / areas. An EV will be more expensive to buy for the foreseable future. Especially in Europe few people have a way to charge an EV on their own drive ways at home so most need to rely on public charging stations which aren't cheap. Then there will be the cost to upgrade the electricity distribution infrastructure.
      ...
      Firstly, you realize that next to Russia, I live the largest (physical) country in the world, right ?

      Secondly, I've already shown that in my jurisdiction, an EV while more expensive, will easily pay for itself

      Lastly, You are kidding, right?
      From a European Shuko socket, you can obtain 230 @ 16A, or nearly 3kW (assuming continuous 80% load).  That will easily change an EV overnight.  Are you claiming that most Europeans don't have access to a normal outlet?
      You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV. And even if people have their own driveway it will only fit 1 car so how about charging the second car at the same time? All in all charging at home is a big no-go in Europe. The Dutch Automobile Association (RAI) has estimated that the NL needs 3 million public charging spots for EVs to be viable. That is more than 1 charging spot per 3 cars.
      I have family in France, Belgium, Spain, Switzerland and England.
      Only my mother who has a flat on the edge of the Old Nice would struggle to home charge.
      These are people living in the countryside, suburbia and inner cities.

      Of all the places I have lived (28 moves in 40 years),
      But this is just a single data point. I travel a lot all across Europe and the common feature of most homes is that they are on a small piece of land. And I'm not talking about city centres but the suburbs. In general land is expensive in Europe so people are not going to waste that on parking space if they can park for free on the street. But even if charging at home isn't a problem there are still plenty of other reasons an EV isn't suitable. EVs just aren't drop-in replacements for ICE cars. It is simple as that.
      Yeah, duh, nobody with half a working brain cell is saying that EV are a drop in for all ICE.
      I know I am a single data point, but I also travel a lot ( it’s sorta kinda my job) and my eyes are open.
      We may disagree, but try to refrain from considering us (and me) as total dumboes.

      looking at my extended family data point, at the state of EV’s (Bolt & Leaf) today, about 70% could replace their IC’s in the short term with no lifestyle change, for the rest, the tech is not there / not affordable yet.

      And this comes from somebody who loves IC, I work on engines EVERY DAY, and when I finish my house I am definitely putting a turbo on a CB250 (don’t question the sanity of that) and getting a project car, mostprobably a CX.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 23, 2018, 11:07:14 am
      You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV.

      We've covered this ground before. There are densely populated cities in the US and Canada as well. It's also a fact that cities here and in Europe are surrounded by suburbs and countryside.  That is where the use of automobiles is highest.  Those living in densely populated city centers without a parking spot either do not own automobiles or if they do, they drive them infrequently (for obvious reasons!).  For many that is a good thing and is one reason why they choose to live in a city center.
      It is a fact that European cities are mostly surrounded by suburbs where most people do not have a driveway, do have a lot of cars, and park them in the street. There are endless miles of bumper to bumper cars parked around Europe's suburban streets at night, when most people are at home. Charging many of them is fixable, but requires regulation changes to allow a little kerb space to be used for a charging station outside each house. Without that, people can only get power to within a metre or two of the car which needs it. Telecoms has the last mile problem. Car charging has the last metre problem.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on September 23, 2018, 11:54:41 am
      You have to understand that cities in Europe are densily populated so most people don't have their own drive way. It is nothing like the US and Canada. Without your own driveway you can't charge an EV.

      We've covered this ground before. There are densely populated cities in the US and Canada as well. It's also a fact that cities here and in Europe are surrounded by suburbs and countryside.  That is where the use of automobiles is highest.  Those living in densely populated city centers without a parking spot either do not own automobiles or if they do, they drive them infrequently (for obvious reasons!).  For many that is a good thing and is one reason why they choose to live in a city center.
      It is a fact that European cities are mostly surrounded by suburbs where most people do not have a driveway, do have a lot of cars, and park them in the street. There are endless miles of bumper to bumper cars parked around Europe's suburban streets at night, when most people are at home. Charging many of them is fixable, but requires regulation changes to allow a little kerb space to be used for a charging station outside each house. Without that, people can only get power to within a metre or two of the car which needs it. Telecoms has the last mile problem. Car charging has the last metre problem.
      One of my co-workers is in that predicament.
      The town where he lives in the Netherlands installs a personal charging spot in front of his house if buys an EV (not sure how this is set up).
      He was seriously thinking about it, but having to rent a car every-time he goes to Italy was too inconvenient...
      So he got a second hand Hybrid that has nearly the same tax advantages, long range but no private night parking in front of his house.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 23, 2018, 01:40:48 pm
      Cars in the streets:
      http://google.com/search?q=cars+parked+in+the+street+in+europe&tbm=isch (http://google.com/search?q=cars+parked+in+the+street+in+europe&tbm=isch)

      European cities:
      http://google.com/search?q=european+city&tbm=isch (http://google.com/search?q=european+city&tbm=isch)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on September 23, 2018, 06:56:06 pm
      Cars in the streets:
      http://google.com/search?q=cars+parked+in+the+street+in+europe&tbm=isch (http://google.com/search?q=cars+parked+in+the+street+in+europe&tbm=isch)

      European cities:
      http://www.google.com/search?q=european+city&tbm=isch (http://www.google.com/search?q=european+city&tbm=isch)
      When I lived in Paris, owning car was not possible.
      At most I got driven by a friend in a car or rented the Club's van for a day or two.
      And then it was a last option because getting fuel, parking and general waste of time.
      Even a folding cargo bike would not fit in most lifts...

      Paris is great city, but some of the details are a real pain.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 23, 2018, 07:18:39 pm
      When I lived in Paris, owning car was not possible.
      At most I got driven by a friend in a car or rented the Club's van for a day or two.
      And then it was a last option because getting fuel, parking and general waste of time.
      Even a folding cargo bike would not fit in most lifts...

      Paris is great city, but some of the details are a real pain.

      And that was the point I was trying to make. Sure, Europe has a much lower rate of car ownership than the US and Canada because yes, there are more places were any car ownership ICE or EV is more difficult (though plenty of those kind of places also exist in US city centers). Those places also have walkable neighborhoods and good public transport by necessity.   But there also are plenty of suburban and countryside homes in Europe where automobile ownership is easy and common and with off street parking. (As is your experience). Anyone can pull up Google map images of places in Europe that show either situation. It’s exactly because rates of car ownership correlate with ease of parking that the rate of ICE to EV conversion will correlate with rates of car ownership - and NOT with percentage of homes with parking.

      There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 23, 2018, 07:39:36 pm
      But everybody wants a car, and every family has at least one, regardless of whether they use it everyday in the city or not.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 23, 2018, 07:47:43 pm
      There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.
      You don't seem to grasp that these are not the minority of cases over much of Europe. Having your own driveway is by far the minority case. Street parking dominates.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 23, 2018, 07:51:12 pm
      every family has at least one

      I don’t think so.  Last year I spent 3 weeks in Italy and spent spent time in several locations where almost no one had a car.  And for single people who live in large city centers in both the US and Europe, I’ll bet many don’t own a car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on September 23, 2018, 07:54:15 pm
      every family has at least one

      I don’t think so.  Last year I spent 3 weeks in Italy and spent spent time in several locations where almost no one had a car.  And for single people who live in large city centers in both the US and Europe, I’ll bet many don’t own a car.
      There aren't many suburban homes in Western European countries which don't have a car. Central city locations often have very low car ownership, but most people are in the suburbs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 23, 2018, 08:07:53 pm
      There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.
      You don't seem to grasp that these are not the minority of cases over much of Europe. Having your own driveway is by far the minority case. Street parking dominates.

      It’s a matter of degree isn’t it? What does “minority of cases mean”?  in all the major European cities i’ve been in (which is most of them) the farther you get out from the city center the more prevelant private parking is.  And in the smaller cities is not even that far. I lived for 3 month in England in 1989 near Bath and IIRC this was true in most af that area - even around Bristol.

       My point is that there are many, many places in Europe where private parking is common, just as there are many places in the US where private parking is not. And in the US it is not only city centers. Where I grew up in California private parking anywhere near the beach is also rare in several beach city neighborhoods with high density housing.  Those are not places where the “2 cars per household” norm is prevelent. IOW rates of car ownership are directly proportional to ease of parking.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 23, 2018, 08:09:18 pm
      every family has at least one

      I don’t think so.  Last year I spent 3 weeks in Italy and spent spent time in several locations where almost no one had a car.  And for single people who live in large city centers in both the US and Europe, I’ll bet many don’t own a car.

      I am so confident you are wrong I will take your bet.  If as you say almost no one had a car why are most of the major cities in Europe having traffic congesting problems?  Why in Germarny and other countries installing parking racks and car elevators to park cars in no one has a car?


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 23, 2018, 08:16:17 pm
      every family has at least one

      I don’t think so.  Last year I spent 3 weeks in Italy and spent spent time in several locations where almost no one had a car.  And for single people who live in large city centers in both the US and Europe, I’ll bet many don’t own a car.
      There aren't many suburban homes in Western European countries which don't have a car. Central city locations often have very low car ownership, but most people are in the suburbs.

      Agreed. Though in southern Europe, I’ve been in several small villages (not cities) where car ownership seemed to be very low.

      The question is do rates of car onwership correlate with ease of parking?  It seems to me an obvious point that it does and the lower rates of car ownership in Europe compared to the USA would suggest it does.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 23, 2018, 08:23:54 pm
      every family has at least one

      I don’t think so.  Last year I spent 3 weeks in Italy and spent spent time in several locations where almost no one had a car.  And for single people who live in large city centers in both the US and Europe, I’ll bet many don’t own a car.

      I am so confident you are wrong I will take your bet.  If as you say almost no one had a car why are most of the major cities in Europe having traffic congesting problems?  Why in Germarny and other countries installing parking racks and car elevators to park cars in no one has a car?

      As is your norm. You've either completely missed the point or are just trolling.

      1)  I never said "almost no one had a car".  I did say the rate of car ownership is lower.  Big difference.
      2)  It's obvious to anyone with even rudimentary reasoning skills that in a large densely populated city, even relatively low rates of car ownership will result in huge parking problems and traffic problems (much of which is due from cars coming and going from outside the city BTW).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 23, 2018, 08:25:07 pm
      There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.
      You don't seem to grasp that these are not the minority of cases over much of Europe. Having your own driveway is by far the minority case. Street parking dominates.

      It’s a matter of degree isn’t it? What does “minority of cases mean”?  in all the major European cities i’ve been in (which is most of them) the farther you get out from the city center the more prevelant private parking is.  And in the smaller cities is not even that far. I lived for 3 month in England in 1989 near Bath and IIRC this was true in most af that area - even around Bristol.

       My point is that there are many, many places in Europe where private parking is common, just as there are many places in the US where private parking is not. And in the US it is not only city centers. Where I grew up in California private parking anywhere near the beach is also rare in several beach city neighborhoods with high density housing.  Those are not places where the “2 cars per household” norm is prevelent. IOW rates of car ownership are directly proportional to ease of parking.

      Dude you are taking almost 30 years or almost 2 generations ago.  You are talking cold war era, there was a Berlin wall and Europe was divided.  In 1989 the world population was just over 5 billion, right now we have almost 8 billion.  You statements make me wonder if you think none of those 3 billion new people would be own a car.  Or if any of the people already living in Eastern Europe purchased a car.  In just 10 years between 1908-1927 Ford alone sole 15 million cars.  And between 1945 and 2003 VW sold 21.5 million VW Beetles.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 23, 2018, 08:44:44 pm
      There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.
      You don't seem to grasp that these are not the minority of cases over much of Europe. Having your own driveway is by far the minority case. Street parking dominates.

      It’s a matter of degree isn’t it? What does “minority of cases mean”?  in all the major European cities i’ve been in (which is most of them) the farther you get out from the city center the more prevelant private parking is.  And in the smaller cities is not even that far. I lived for 3 month in England in 1989 near Bath and IIRC this was true in most af that area - even around Bristol.

       My point is that there are many, many places in Europe where private parking is common, just as there are many places in the US where private parking is not. And in the US it is not only city centers. Where I grew up in California private parking anywhere near the beach is also rare in several beach city neighborhoods with high density housing.  Those are not places where the “2 cars per household” norm is prevelent. IOW rates of car ownership are directly proportional to ease of parking.

      Dude you are taking almost 30 years or almost 2 generations ago.

      Yet easily confirmed to still be true with a quick perusal of Google maps.  Pic below is from Bishopston, just 2.6 miles from Bristol city center. This is not an anomaly - there are many square kilometers of similar neighborhoods surrounding Bristol  (and most other European cities) - see second picture. Are there other neighborhoods without off street parking? yes of course - especially closer to city centers - I've never disputed that.

      Quote
        In 1989 the world population was just over 5 billion, right now we have almost 8 billion. 
      :palm:   How many of those 3 billion where added to the already built out suburbs around European cities? Answer - very few. (BTW Englands population has increased by only by about 10 Million in the last 30 years). 

      The large increases in world population over the past 30 years have almost exclusively occurred in the developing world.  You likely already know that and are again just trolling.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=529928;image)

      The entire area surrounding the center of Bristol is suburbs mostly with homes having off street parking. Even with this distant view - those areas are pretty well dilineated.
      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=529940;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 23, 2018, 09:46:12 pm
      There’s no doubt that EV ownership for current ICE owners (anywhere in the world] who struggle without easy parking would be difficult. I’ve lived in places like that myself and would never own an EV if I lived there unless public charging or charging at work was an option.  But to extrapolate those minority of car owners challenges to imply that EVs will never become mainstream is fallacious and not borne out by the facts.
      You don't seem to grasp that these are not the minority of cases over much of Europe. Having your own driveway is by far the minority case. Street parking dominates.

      It’s a matter of degree isn’t it? What does “minority of cases mean”?  in all the major European cities i’ve been in (which is most of them) the farther you get out from the city center the more prevelant private parking is.  And in the smaller cities is not even that far. I lived for 3 month in England in 1989 near Bath and IIRC this was true in most af that area - even around Bristol.

       My point is that there are many, many places in Europe where private parking is common, just as there are many places in the US where private parking is not. And in the US it is not only city centers. Where I grew up in California private parking anywhere near the beach is also rare in several beach city neighborhoods with high density housing.  Those are not places where the “2 cars per household” norm is prevelent. IOW rates of car ownership are directly proportional to ease of parking.

      Dude you are taking almost 30 years or almost 2 generations ago.

      Yet easily confirmed to still be true with a quick perusal of Google maps.  Pic below is from Bishopston, just 2.6 miles from Bristol city center. This is not an anomoly - there are many square kilometers of similar neighborhoods surrounding Bristol (and most other European cities). Are there other neiborhoods without off street parking? yes of course - especially closer to city centers - I've never disputed that.

      Quote
        In 1989 the world population was just over 5 billion, right now we have almost 8 billion. 
      :palm:   How many of those 3 billion where added to the already built out suburbs around European cities? Answer - very few. (BTW Englands population has increased by only by about 10 Million in the last 30 years). 

      The large increases in world population over the past 30 years have almost exclusively occurred in the developing world.  You either already know that or are again just trolling.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=529928;image)

      Dude why are so quick to call me a toll again?  I though you and I agreed to have a civil discussion without name calling to share each others point of view.  You will never convince me or anyone else of what you are saying by using using insults.  Hope you don't treat your wife, kids or co-workers this way.

      If you have a counter argument please present it without insusts like everyone else is doing in the forum.




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 23, 2018, 10:03:02 pm
      Dude why are so quick to call me a toll again?
      I believe in calling out trolls. If you don't want to be called one, don't be trollish. It took me seeing your same behavior repeated over and over in this thread and others before I used that word.  I use it sparingly. In my 5+ years on this forum I have only called 2-3 people trolls. You are one of them.

      Quote
      If you have a counter argument please present it without insusts like everyone else is doing in the forum.
      The difference is that others - even though I may strongly disagree with them - are not acting trollish.  Even George and nctnico who I have strong disagreements with in this thread, make their arguments in a relevant fashion and provide room for rational discussion. You, not so much.  Also, they both offer lots of positive contributions to this forum in other areas where their knowledge vastly exceeds mine. You, not so much.

      This conversation is more appropriate for PMs if that is something you wish to pursue.
      I'll do my best to ignore your trolling,  but I will not refrain from continuing to  point out factual errors (or fact free assertions) - and sometimes call out trolling when I see it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 23, 2018, 10:07:40 pm
      Dude why are so quick to call me a toll again?
      I believe in calling out trolls. If you don't want to be called one, don't be trollish. It took me seeing your same behavior repeated over and over in this thread and others before I used that word.  I use it sparingly. In my 5+ years on this forum I have only called 2-3 people trolls. You are one of them.

      Quote
      If you have a counter argument please present it without insusts like everyone else is doing in the forum.
      The difference is that others - even though I may strongly disagree with them - are not acting trollish.  Even George and nctnico who I have strong disagreements with in this thread, make their arguments in a relevant fashion and provide room for rational discussion. You, not so much.  Also, they both offer lots of positive contributions to this forum in other areas where their knowledge vastly exceeds mine. You, not so much.

      This conversation is more appropriate for PMs if that is something you wish to pursue.
      I'll do my best to ignore your trolling,  but I will not refrain from continuing to  point out factual errors (or fact free assertions).

      Thank you - Feel free to point out any factual errors I post.  I know I certianly ponited them out in your posts.

      Now what were we discussing.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 24, 2018, 12:29:19 am
      Interesting comparison between EVs/Tesla's and EVs with fuel cells powered by Hydrogen. 

      Hydrogen wins when it comes to refueling times.  About the same as ICE. +1
      Range of a Hyrogen is about the same as
      Hydrogen doesn't produce greenhouse gasses just like EVs.  +1

      When it comes to cost EV fuel cell cars are muche more expensive than EV or ICE.  And if elctricty prices continuing to rise cost to power either an ICE or EV isn't that much different.  As much as I like my EV, it's looking like energy cost per mile for gasoline or EV is about the same.  If people are going to use the line EV's are chearper, energy cost per mile to power the vehicle looks like that's not true.  Especially when temperatures drop below freezing.   


      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 24, 2018, 01:29:49 am
      If people are going to use the line EV's are chearper, energy cost per mile to power the vehicle looks like that's not true. 

      How many times are you going to spout this lie?

      I've shown, on multiple occasions the per-mile fuel cost of EVs are less than 1/2 (and 1/8 in my locale) versus that of ICE vehicles, in various jurisdictions.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 24, 2018, 02:59:06 am
      If people are going to use the line EV's are chearper, energy cost per mile to power the vehicle looks like that's not true. 

      How many times are you going to spout this lie?

      I've shown, on multiple occasions the per-mile fuel cost of EVs are less than 1/2 (and 1/8 in my locale) versus that of ICE vehicles, in various jurisdictions.

      Why do you call it a lie witout providing any calculations to prove I am incorrect.  Using the Tesla 10,000 miles vidoe data I clearly demonstrated if one were living in California and am paying PG&E electricity prices and CostCo, Safeway, Shell gasoline pricies the cost of energy per mile is about the same for EV or ICE.  Next year when PG&E increases electircy costs EV's will cost more per mile in electricity costs than the cost for gasoline to move an ICE a mile.

      Let's do the same calcuation where you are.  What are you actually paying per gallon of gasoline?  And what are you actually paying per kWhr for electricty?

      Let's see if what you are saying is true or not.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 24, 2018, 03:14:17 am
       :palm:  and once again the pattern repeats...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on September 24, 2018, 04:48:07 am
      If people are going to use the line EV's are chearper, energy cost per mile to power the vehicle looks like that's not true. 

      How many times are you going to spout this lie?

      I've shown, on multiple occasions the per-mile fuel cost of EVs are less than 1/2 (and 1/8 in my locale) versus that of ICE vehicles, in various jurisdictions.

      Why do you call it a lie witout providing any calculations to prove I am incorrect.  Using the Tesla 10,000 miles vidoe data I clearly demonstrated if one were living in California and am paying PG&E electricity prices and CostCo, Safeway, Shell gasoline pricies the cost of energy per mile is about the same for EV or ICE.  Next year when PG&E increases electircy costs EV's will cost more per mile in electricity costs than the cost for gasoline to move an ICE a mile.

      Let's do the same calcuation where you are.  What are you actually paying per gallon of gasoline?  And what are you actually paying per kWhr for electricty?

      Let's see if what you are saying is true or not.

      I have, multiple times. 

      Perhaps you should go re-read post #1834.  https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1833074/#msg1833074 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1833074/#msg1833074)
      where I lay out all of the math, along with sources of the data. 

      The definitive proof that you're a troll, and not here to add any useful information to this thread, is that the very next message, quoting mine, #1835 was written by you.
      :palm:

      This is the last time I pay any attention to any of your posts, or quote your dribble.  I'm hoping the other users here follow my lead, and simply stop responding to you.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 24, 2018, 07:18:22 am
      If people are going to use the line EV's are chearper, energy cost per mile to power the vehicle looks like that's not true. 

      How many times are you going to spout this lie?

      I've shown, on multiple occasions the per-mile fuel cost of EVs are less than 1/2 (and 1/8 in my locale) versus that of ICE vehicles, in various jurisdictions.

      Why do you call it a lie witout providing any calculations to prove I am incorrect.  Using the Tesla 10,000 miles vidoe data I clearly demonstrated if one were living in California and am paying PG&E electricity prices and CostCo, Safeway, Shell gasoline pricies the cost of energy per mile is about the same for EV or ICE.  Next year when PG&E increases electircy costs EV's will cost more per mile in electricity costs than the cost for gasoline to move an ICE a mile.

      Let's do the same calcuation where you are.  What are you actually paying per gallon of gasoline?  And what are you actually paying per kWhr for electricty?

      Let's see if what you are saying is true or not.

      I have, multiple times. 

      Perhaps you should go re-read post #1834.  https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1833074/#msg1833074 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1833074/#msg1833074)
      where I lay out all of the math, along with sources of the data. 

      The definitive proof that you're a troll, and not here to add any useful information to this thread, is that the very next message, quoting mine, #1835 was written by you.
      :palm:

      This is the last time I pay any attention to any of your posts, or quote your dribble.  I'm hoping the other users here follow my lead, and simply stop responding to you.

      You live in Vancouver Canada, Southern California and in the Netherlands all at the same time?  Don't think so.  You list PG&E as your electricity supplier in Southern California?  Bull shit.  Impossible as PG&E doesn't serve Southern California.  Or do you have a 150 mile extension cord?   

      But I'll play along with you.  Did you even read the references you listed?  Specifically the PG&E rate schedule your referenced.  Did you see PG&E has a cap of 60,000 for Rates A and B combined.  PG&E has 5.4 million electric customers.  Not everyone who has an EV can get on this rate plan.  What is you are customers 60.001 or higher.  Duhhhh.... You have to select a different rate plan.  So this means not everyone who has an EV is on this rate plan.  And there are other EV rate plans one can be on.  PG&E has 9 different rate plans for residential customers.   


      Your references say electricity in Australia is $0.414 kWhr? 
      Is that correct our Australian friends?  Do you folks really pay $0.414 for a kWhr?.

      Where are you getting your numbers from?  Are you factoring in the heat loss in charging and discharing the batteries?  What about the heat loss in coverting the AC do DC by the charger when charging the batteries? 

      Sorry my friend your research is flawed and in some cases just complete bull shit.

      Try using real numbers like the guy in the Tesla video used.  If you do I think you will find what your actually getting is not what you think.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 24, 2018, 02:19:40 pm
      https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/wrap-up.html (https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/wrap-up.html)

      "[...]
      Observed Fuel Economy:
      EPA estimates for electricity consumption in the Model S were 38 kWh/100 miles, with a range of 265 miles on a full charge. Our best observed range was 230.4 miles and the best projected range was 264.2 miles. The best average energy for a single charge was 238 watt-hours per mile (23.8 kWh/100 miles) and the worst 344 watt-hours per mile (34.0 kWh/100 miles). The energy usage calculations do not include charge losses, which are 25-35 percent based on our experience with the high-powered wall connector (HPWC)."
      [...]
      Cons: Extensive list of repairs necessary, interior amenities don't match other luxury sedans in its price range, latest active safety systems not available, needs at least a Level 2 charger to make it useful as a daily driver.

      Bottom Line: The Model S is a fast, comfortable and technologically brilliant luxury sedan, but numerous problems with its touchscreen, tires and drivetrain make it hard to recommend.[...]"

      List of repairs in 30,251 miles:

      "Problem   Repair   Cost
      Suspicious noise   Replace first drive unit   Warranty
      Car died roadside   Replace second drive unit   Warranty
      Suspicious noise   Replace third drive unit and ride height sensor   Warranty
      Car died roadside   Replace main battery   Warranty
      Touchscreen froze   Replace main display screen   Warranty
      Optional 21-inch rear tires worn to cords prematurely   Replace rear tires and fix alignment   Warranty
      Car died roadside   Replace 12-volt battery and cables   Warranty
      Steering wheel creak   Shim and torque sub-frame bolts   Warranty
      Odd noise from undercarriage   Rerouted logic harnesses per TSB   Warranty
      Sunroof will not work   Replace broken sunroof deflector   Warranty
      Driver door opens automatically   Replace driver door handle mechanism   Warranty
      Recall issued   Battery shield kit installed   Warranty
      TSB issued   Inspect joints for all lower control arm washers   Warranty
      TSB issued   Update firmware to version 5.8.4   Warranty
      TSB issued   Update firmware to version 5.11   Warranty
      TSB issued   Replace front bumper carrier bolts   Warranty
      TSB issued   Install rear upper camber bolts   Warranty
      TSB issued   Replace side motor mount   Warranty
      TSB issued   Replace front floor mats, install rear floor mats   Warranty
      Left radiator shutter faulty   Replace center louvers   Warranty
      Lug nuts beginning to swell   Replace all 20 lug nuts   Warranty
      Cracked vanity mirror hinge   Replace cracked vanity mirror hinge   Goodwill
      Humming noise at start-up   Install AC compressor NVH cover   Goodwill
      Vanity mirror hinge cracked   Replace missing charge cord trim piece   Goodwill
      Touchscreen froze   Manual reset (required 9 times during test)   None
      Windows lowered automatically   Unresolved, happened twice   None
      TPMS confused   Unresolved, happened once   None
      Condensation in taillight   Unresolved prior to sale   None
      "

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq5c4jGR2gM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq5c4jGR2gM)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: theoldwizard1 on September 24, 2018, 03:22:41 pm
      I really should NOT jump in at the end of this discussion ...

      First, I am a retireed automotive engineer.  The only big changes in EV that have happened (or are still happening) in the past 2-30 years are cheaper/more energy dense batteries and cheaper electronics for 3 phase or BLDC motors.  Still this is not enough.  At least in the US, I can not foresee a time in my life, when EV will make up much more than 30% of the total light vehicle market.

      1) They do not have the range most US residents want/need
      2) We do not have adequate infrastructure (power generation and distribution) to charge the huge number of these vehicles

      What is likely in the next 10-20 years is that maybe the top 10 cities of the world with the worst air pollution will either ban single user ICE or ICE entirely or tax the heck out of the vehicle/fuel.  At most 2 or 3 of those cities might be in the US.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: RoGeorge on September 24, 2018, 03:33:48 pm
      https://phys.org/news/2018-09-late-party-german-carmakers-tesla.html
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 24, 2018, 04:08:19 pm
      I really should NOT jump in at the end of this discussion ...

      First, I am a retireed automotive engineer.  The only big changes in EV that have happened (or are still happening) in the past 2-30 years are cheaper/more energy dense batteries and cheaper electronics for 3 phase or BLDC motors.  Still this is not enough.  At least in the US, I can not foresee a time in my life, when EV will make up much more than 30% of the total light vehicle market.

      1) They do not have the range most US residents want/need
      2) We do not have adequate infrastructure (power generation and distribution) to charge the huge number of these vehicles

      What is likely in the next 10-20 years is that maybe the top 10 cities of the world with the worst air pollution will either ban single user ICE or ICE entirely or tax the heck out of the vehicle/fuel.  At most 2 or 3 of those cities might be in the US.

      This is an ongoing discussion you are welcome to join I in.  We need more points of view.  I live in California which is Tesla Country and where electricity prices are the highest in the country.  While I don’t have a Tesla, I do own a Volt.  We looked at all electric and as you said there are just way too many issues that need to be resolved.

      What’s interesting is Jay Leno has a Baker electric car that’s about 100 years ago.  According to Jay, the range of the Baker is about the same as modern EVs.  The only difference is the speed.  Baker’s top speed was around 35.


       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 24, 2018, 05:12:38 pm
      https://phys.org/news/2018-09-late-party-german-carmakers-tesla.html
      \
      Interesting article, thanks for posting.  One has to ask how Germany plans to "fuel" all of those electric cars.  As Germany is phasing out nuclear power they will be using more.  Yes they have solar and wind but that's not enough, so they continue to burn more coal.  As nuclear gets phased out they continue to burn more coal.  When Germany has a shortage they purchase electricity from France's nuclear power plants.


      Seems to me to me if we are going to feed the energy demands of all of these electric cars the only solution we will eihter have to burn more coal or build new nuclear power plants.  Please don't say solar and wind will provide all of that power as we know it can't.  The solar and wind power association is saying using their best estimates in 30 years solar and wind might be able to supply the world with 15 to 18% of what's being consumed.  The indsutry just doesn't have the raw materails and factories to produce more.

      I live in Caliorna where we have hydro.  We've already dammed all of the rivers so we can't produce any more hydro.  And it looks like we will have to supplment hydro by bunring coal soon.  The water level in Lake Mead has dropped by over 150 feet over the last 20 years.  Due to the decrease in water pressure at the turbines it takes more water to generate the same amount of electricty as when the water level was higher.  And then there's the issue of not having enough water for everyone.  Californa has lost so much ground water the gound is sinking.  If I remember correctly the ground has dropped 100 feet and mroe in some parts of the state.

      So one has to ask if even 5% of the cars on the roard are EV where's the electricty going to come from?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: theoldwizard1 on September 24, 2018, 05:25:10 pm

      Interesting article, thanks for posting.  One has to ask how Germany plans to "fuel" all of those electric cars.  As Germany is phasing out nuclear power they will be using more.  Yes they have solar and wind but that's not enough, so they continue to burn more coal.  As nuclear gets phased out they continue to burn more coal. 
      All of the "green energy"/anti-nuke people seem to be missing this.

      Even though Germany is trying to setup a pipe line from Russia to purchase natural gas, that still add CO and CO2 to the air.

      The world need MORE and BETTER nuclear power plants.  Ones that are truly "fail safe".
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 24, 2018, 05:35:16 pm

      Interesting article, thanks for posting.  One has to ask how Germany plans to "fuel" all of those electric cars.  As Germany is phasing out nuclear power they will be using more.  Yes they have solar and wind but that's not enough, so they continue to burn more coal.  As nuclear gets phased out they continue to burn more coal. 
      All of the "green energy"/anti-nuke people seem to be missing this.

      Even though Germany is trying to setup a pipe line from Russia to purchase natural gas, that still add CO and CO2 to the air.

      The world need MORE and BETTER nuclear power plants.  Ones that are truly "fail safe".

      I would agree.  US has NIF, France is building ITER and there are about 100 other private companies working on next gen nuclear.

      What's crazy about burning natural gas and coal is that the burning releases millions of tones of radioactive nuclear isotopes into the atmosphere. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 24, 2018, 05:53:34 pm
      If in the end part of the solution were synthetic fuel it wouldn't surprise me. H2 from water electrolysis, C from biomass, and the required energy coming from PVs/other renewables, because li-ion batteries fall short for planes and ships: these need the good old high energy density liquid (hydrocarbon) fuels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on September 24, 2018, 07:54:56 pm

      Interesting article, thanks for posting.  One has to ask how Germany plans to "fuel" all of those electric cars.  As Germany is phasing out nuclear power they will be using more.  Yes they have solar and wind but that's not enough, so they continue to burn more coal.  As nuclear gets phased out they continue to burn more coal. 
      All of the "green energy"/anti-nuke people seem to be missing this.

      Even though Germany is trying to setup a pipe line from Russia to purchase natural gas, that still add CO and CO2 to the air.

      The world need MORE and BETTER nuclear power plants.  Ones that are truly "fail safe".
      I think nuclear is the way to go medium term. But not the arse over heels way the UK is doing it...
      burning black coal for energy is silly. How are we going to make steel without it? Polluting and a waste of a precious resource.
      Burning brown coal is simply nonsense, should have never been done.

      About wind, right now, there are huge tenders for private, no public money, insanely extensive wind farms in the North Sea. The scale is just mind boggling. And a few are German.
      The whole sale price of electricity they can turn a profit on is nuts, like a 0 too low - tech is moving on fast in this sector!
      I could go on and on about this, but this is my work and in my enthusiasm I might step over an NDA... Or two.
      Lets just say, there is a reason all the big players have built or are building specialised vessels that are totally overkill for the current demand. These vessels cost something like 30 000€ a day to wait and up and over 250 000€ per day to work (I cannot be more precise, sorry).

      And the same thing is starting to happen in places in Asia where I'll be sailing to next spring (say no more).

      Big money is going into wind, as if it is done right the ROI can be as low as 4 years for a minimum lifespan of 25 (can't be more accurate, sorry).
      So, green is going into green to make green, not to save polar bears, but that might be a consequence.

      Also, I sometimes am in the offshore oil and gas, and to put it in a way that wont get me fired: I have seen things right out of Mordor, yup, that bad. It is pushing me to go electric (house, PV and car) despite my love for IC engines.
      the amount spilled, burnt for giggles or wasted is beyond stupid (but it is much cleaner than before my older colleagues say - i can't even imagine).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 24, 2018, 08:02:13 pm
      If in the end part of the solution were synthetic fuel it wouldn't surprise me. H2 from water electrolysis, C from biomass, and the required energy coming from PVs/other renewables, because li-ion batteries fall short for planes and ships: these need the good old high density liquid (hydrocarbon) fuels.

      Guess you didn't watch the videos on just how which shows just how inefficient H2 from water electrolysis is  not to mention the storage and issues.  Or the issues in producing energy from biomass.  It's not that it can't be done. but the energy required to produce the energy just makes both unrealistic and we don't even have a clue to improve efficiency which would make either a viable alternative.


      So lets review We need to find a replacement for fossil fuels/coal/natural gas etc. for our transporation and electricty needs. 
      Wind/solar is promising but can't scale.  Bast case in 30 years we might be able to get 18%.  It's a start, but not a full solution.


      Hydrogen/biomass - We know that's not going to work.  Hydrogen is so inefficient proven not to be worth it.  Biomass - Looked promising...  But as people don't like GMOs.  And for the orginisms we've modified there oil production dramaticly decreases. 

      What's left?  - Hydro?  We've run out of rivers to dam.

      Geothermal - Like solar will give us some energy, but not much.  Maybe 5%?


      So were are we going to get the other 77%?  Just leaves nucelar.....








      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 24, 2018, 08:08:37 pm

      Interesting article, thanks for posting.  One has to ask how Germany plans to "fuel" all of those electric cars.  As Germany is phasing out nuclear power they will be using more.  Yes they have solar and wind but that's not enough, so they continue to burn more coal.  As nuclear gets phased out they continue to burn more coal. 
      All of the "green energy"/anti-nuke people seem to be missing this.

      Even though Germany is trying to setup a pipe line from Russia to purchase natural gas, that still add CO and CO2 to the air.

      The world need MORE and BETTER nuclear power plants.  Ones that are truly "fail safe".
      I think nuclear is the way to go medium term. But not the arse over heels way the UK is doing it...
      burning black coal for energy is silly. How are we going to make steel without it? Polluting and a waste of a precious resource.
      Burning brown coal is simply nonsense, should have never been done.

      About wind, right now, there are huge tenders for private, no public money, insanely extensive wind farms in the North Sea. The scale is just mind boggling. And a few are German.
      The whole sale price of electricity they can turn a profit on is nuts, like a 0 too low - tech is moving on fast in this sector!
      I could go on and on about this, but this is my work and in my enthusiasm I might step over an NDA... Or two.
      Lets just say, there is a reason all the big players have built or are building specialised vessels that are totally overkill for the current demand. These vessels cost something like 30 000€ a day to wait and up and over 250 000€ per day to work (I cannot be more precise, sorry).

      And the same thing is starting to happen in places in Asia where I'll be sailing to next spring (say no more).

      Big money is going into wind, as if it is done right the ROI can be as low as 4 years for a minimum lifespan of 25 (can't be more accurate, sorry).
      So, green is going into green to make green, not to save polar bears, but that might be a consequence.

      Also, I sometimes am in the offshore oil and gas, and to put it in a way that wont get me fired: I have seen things right out of Mordor, yup, that bad. It is pushing me to go electric (house, PV and car) despite my love for IC engines.
      the amount spilled, burnt for giggles or wasted is beyond stupid (but it is much cleaner than before my older colleagues say - i can't even imagine).

      Can you explain the difference between brown and back coal?

      Thanks

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on September 24, 2018, 08:30:08 pm

      Interesting article, thanks for posting.  One has to ask how Germany plans to "fuel" all of those electric cars.  As Germany is phasing out nuclear power they will be using more.  Yes they have solar and wind but that's not enough, so they continue to burn more coal.  As nuclear gets phased out they continue to burn more coal. 
      All of the "green energy"/anti-nuke people seem to be missing this.

      Even though Germany is trying to setup a pipe line from Russia to purchase natural gas, that still add CO and CO2 to the air.

      The world need MORE and BETTER nuclear power plants.  Ones that are truly "fail safe".
      I think nuclear is the way to go medium term. But not the arse over heels way the UK is doing it...
      burning black coal for energy is silly. How are we going to make steel without it? Polluting and a waste of a precious resource.
      Burning brown coal is simply nonsense, should have never been done.

      About wind, right now, there are huge tenders for private, no public money, insanely extensive wind farms in the North Sea. The scale is just mind boggling. And a few are German.
      The whole sale price of electricity they can turn a profit on is nuts, like a 0 too low - tech is moving on fast in this sector!
      I could go on and on about this, but this is my work and in my enthusiasm I might step over an NDA... Or two.
      Lets just say, there is a reason all the big players have built or are building specialised vessels that are totally overkill for the current demand. These vessels cost something like 30 000€ a day to wait and up and over 250 000€ per day to work (I cannot be more precise, sorry).

      And the same thing is starting to happen in places in Asia where I'll be sailing to next spring (say no more).

      Big money is going into wind, as if it is done right the ROI can be as low as 4 years for a minimum lifespan of 25 (can't be more accurate, sorry).
      So, green is going into green to make green, not to save polar bears, but that might be a consequence.

      Also, I sometimes am in the offshore oil and gas, and to put it in a way that wont get me fired: I have seen things right out of Mordor, yup, that bad. It is pushing me to go electric (house, PV and car) despite my love for IC engines.
      the amount spilled, burnt for giggles or wasted is beyond stupid (but it is much cleaner than before my older colleagues say - i can't even imagine).

      Can you explain the difference between brown and back coal?

      Thanks
      For my interests (steel ships), it very hard to make coke from lignite, and to have affordable steel, coke is a necessity.
      For more info, use Google: https://www.gktoday.in/gk/difference-between-peat-lignite-bituminous-and-anthracite/ (https://www.gktoday.in/gk/difference-between-peat-lignite-bituminous-and-anthracite/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on September 24, 2018, 08:51:48 pm
      Btw, there is a wealth of info on offshore firms web pages, even if some of best stuff is in the native tongue of the company  ;).

      For example:
      https://www.facebook.com/search/str/deme+group/links-keyword/articles-links (https://www.facebook.com/search/str/deme+group/links-keyword/articles-links)
      Even the "press" pages are full of goodies.
      https://www.jandenul.com/en/press/press-releases (https://www.jandenul.com/en/press/press-releases)
      The Fleet pages is often full of gems... If you search a bit, you can even find vessels whose keel is yet to be laid - and their price!
      https://www.vanoord.com/activities/offshore-wind-equipment (https://www.vanoord.com/activities/offshore-wind-equipment)

      Just to say, the investment in wind installation capacity is big, VERY BIG, right now and it is done for a reason. Just put the bread crumbs in a line.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 24, 2018, 09:09:43 pm

      Interesting article, thanks for posting.  One has to ask how Germany plans to "fuel" all of those electric cars.  As Germany is phasing out nuclear power they will be using more.  Yes they have solar and wind but that's not enough, so they continue to burn more coal.  As nuclear gets phased out they continue to burn more coal. 
      All of the "green energy"/anti-nuke people seem to be missing this.

      Even though Germany is trying to setup a pipe line from Russia to purchase natural gas, that still add CO and CO2 to the air.

      The world need MORE and BETTER nuclear power plants.  Ones that are truly "fail safe".
      I think nuclear is the way to go medium term. But not the arse over heels way the UK is doing it...
      burning black coal for energy is silly. How are we going to make steel without it? Polluting and a waste of a precious resource.
      Burning brown coal is simply nonsense, should have never been done.

      About wind, right now, there are huge tenders for private, no public money, insanely extensive wind farms in the North Sea. The scale is just mind boggling. And a few are German.
      The whole sale price of electricity they can turn a profit on is nuts, like a 0 too low - tech is moving on fast in this sector!
      I could go on and on about this, but this is my work and in my enthusiasm I might step over an NDA... Or two.
      Lets just say, there is a reason all the big players have built or are building specialised vessels that are totally overkill for the current demand. These vessels cost something like 30 000€ a day to wait and up and over 250 000€ per day to work (I cannot be more precise, sorry).

      And the same thing is starting to happen in places in Asia where I'll be sailing to next spring (say no more).

      Big money is going into wind, as if it is done right the ROI can be as low as 4 years for a minimum lifespan of 25 (can't be more accurate, sorry).
      So, green is going into green to make green, not to save polar bears, but that might be a consequence.

      Also, I sometimes am in the offshore oil and gas, and to put it in a way that wont get me fired: I have seen things right out of Mordor, yup, that bad. It is pushing me to go electric (house, PV and car) despite my love for IC engines.
      the amount spilled, burnt for giggles or wasted is beyond stupid (but it is much cleaner than before my older colleagues say - i can't even imagine).

      Can you explain the difference between brown and back coal?

      Thanks
      For my interests (steel ships), it very hard to make coke from lignite, and to have affordable steel, coke is a necessity.
      For more info, use Google: https://www.gktoday.in/gk/difference-between-peat-lignite-bituminous-and-anthracite/ (https://www.gktoday.in/gk/difference-between-peat-lignite-bituminous-and-anthracite/)

      Thanks, this is interesting.  I live in California and we have almost not coal here so don't know much about it.  What I can tell you is in the early half of the last century people were moving to California of the clear non-polluted air.  By around 1940 Southern California people were noticing the air was becoming more and more polluted.  No-one had a clue where the pollution was coming from.  It was at UC Berkeley the source of the pollution was realized.....  It was the automobile exhaust.  Over the next 20-30 years California's air was so polluted from automobile exhaust the sky was that greenish, yellow-brown and people were having berating problems.

      In California politicians worked to clean our air.  They regulated and created the toughest anti-pollution laws in the world.  I like most other California’s cursed our government for passing all of those strict anti-pollution laws.  Now 30 years later I must thank all of those politicians   Our air is clean.  I can’t even remember when the last smog day was.   Thank you government!,  for cleaning up our air.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on September 25, 2018, 09:59:53 am
      Can you explain the difference between brown and back coal? 
      Black coal is mined underground and brown coal leaves giant "sahara" lookalike disasters that can even be seen from the space station  :--
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nfmax on September 25, 2018, 10:34:46 am
      ... people were having berating problems.

      Just what this thread needs - a Freudian autocorrection! ;)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 25, 2018, 12:12:01 pm
      If in the end part of the solution were synthetic fuel it wouldn't surprise me. H2 from water electrolysis, C from biomass, and the required energy coming from PVs/other renewables, because li-ion batteries fall short for planes and ships: these need the good old high density liquid (hydrocarbon) fuels.
      [...]
      Just leaves nucelar.....

      But when the oil runs out Fischer–Tropsch synthetic fuels might be the solution, because we need planes and ships and planes can't fly with nuclear.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on September 25, 2018, 05:11:49 pm
      If in the end part of the solution were synthetic fuel it wouldn't surprise me. H2 from water electrolysis, C from biomass, and the required energy coming from PVs/other renewables, because li-ion batteries fall short for planes and ships: these need the good old high density liquid (hydrocarbon) fuels.
      [...]
      Just leaves nucelar.....

      But when the oil runs out Fischer–Tropsch synthetic fuels might be the solution, because we need planes and ships and planes can't fly with nuclear.

      The big idea is to have way too much capacity so that even at minimum production "no wind or sun over the whole of western Europe mythical day", the reliance on co generation or batteries is kept to a minimum.
      All the other days, 364 of them, the wind would produce hydrogen with the excess (otherwise lost - aka nearly free) energy and convert that to methane. Once we have methane, longer hydrocarbons are possible. But methane, of itself, is already a easy to manage fuel.

      The same method could be used to keep Nuclear plants running at optimal power levels, as they don't like low loads...

      But the problem is getting to methane, as the Sabatier method is a bit iffy, but serious efforts are going into this:
      https://www.technologyreview.com/s/510066/audi-to-make-fuel-using-solar-power/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/510066/audi-to-make-fuel-using-solar-power/) for example.
      But, to be honest, I can't even pretend to have dug into it.
      Could be the next big thing or "Solar Roadways II, the CH4 connection" for all I know...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 25, 2018, 05:43:16 pm
      If in the end part of the solution were synthetic fuel it wouldn't surprise me. H2 from water electrolysis, C from biomass, and the required energy coming from PVs/other renewables, because li-ion batteries fall short for planes and ships: these need the good old high density liquid (hydrocarbon) fuels.
      [...]
      Just leaves nucelar.....

      But when the oil runs out Fischer–Tropsch synthetic fuels might be the solution, because we need planes and ships and planes can't fly with nuclear.

      The Russians have nuclear powered aircraft.  It flies.  I think the pilots and crew have a 20 year or less life span.  US had plans for  nuclear powereed planes but I don't think one was ever built.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 25, 2018, 05:55:51 pm
      If in the end part of the solution were synthetic fuel it wouldn't surprise me. H2 from water electrolysis, C from biomass, and the required energy coming from PVs/other renewables, because li-ion batteries fall short for planes and ships: these need the good old high density liquid (hydrocarbon) fuels.
      [...]
      Just leaves nucelar.....

      But when the oil runs out Fischer–Tropsch synthetic fuels might be the solution, because we need planes and ships and planes can't fly with nuclear.

      The big idea is to have way too much capacity so that even at minimum production "no wind or sun over the whole of western Europe mythical day", the reliance on co generation or batteries is kept to a minimum.
      All the other days, 364 of them, the wind would produce hydrogen with the excess (otherwise lost - aka nearly free) energy and convert that to methane. Once we have methane, longer hydrocarbons are possible. But methane, of itself, is already a easy to manage fuel.

      The same method could be used to keep Nuclear plants running at optimal power levels, as they don't like low loads...

      But the problem is getting to methane, as the Sabatier method is a bit iffy, but serious efforts are going into this:
      https://www.technologyreview.com/s/510066/audi-to-make-fuel-using-solar-power/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/510066/audi-to-make-fuel-using-solar-power/) for example.
      But, to be honest, I can't even pretend to have dug into it.
      Could be the next big thing or "Solar Roadways II, the CH4 connection" for all I know...

      That mythical day where there was no sun for solar and no wind to spin wind-turbines was 2 weeks.  Both Great Brittan and Germany were affected.  Both burned more coal and purchased nuclear produced electricity from France.  If you look you will see a spike in Germany's burning of coal last year as a result of the renewables not producing.

      As for Audi - They need to look at the Hydrogen fuel video to see why this isn't going to work.  The amount of electricity involved in electrolysis of water into H-H O and storage is enormous. But they are adding a twist by using methane.  So maybe........  But highly unlikely this would work.  Watch the following vidoe.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY)


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 25, 2018, 06:26:12 pm
      As for Audi - They need to look at the Hydrogen fuel video to see why this isn't going to work.  The amount of electricity involved in electrolysis of water into H-H O and storage is enormous. But they are adding a twist by using methane.  So maybe........  But highly unlikely this would work.  Watch the following vidoe.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY)
      The error in this video is that efficiency doesn't matter to the consumer. Costs and comfort are what make or break a solution.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on September 25, 2018, 06:29:56 pm
      Another error in this video is that it says that the round-trip efficiency of a li-ion battery is 99%, which it isn't.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 25, 2018, 06:55:25 pm
      Another error in this video is that it says that the round-trip efficiency of a li-ion battery is 99%, which it isn't.

      Just goes to show how difficult it is to get all of the fact's correct.  This is a complex topic.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 25, 2018, 07:40:53 pm
      Another error in this video is that it says that the round-trip efficiency of a li-ion battery is 99%, which it isn't.
      Just goes to show how difficult it is to get all of the fact's correct.  This is a complex topic.
      I'm going to sit on my ass and wait & see what turns out to be the next thing to propel a car. Batteries, synthetic fuel, bio-fuel or Hydrogen.  :popcorn:
      BTW I read an interesting article about synthetic blue diesel made from leftovers from the food industry. I doubt they keep that name for long because it also seems to be some kind of Marihuana.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on September 25, 2018, 08:13:42 pm
      If in the end part of the solution were synthetic fuel it wouldn't surprise me. H2 from water electrolysis, C from biomass, and the required energy coming from PVs/other renewables, because li-ion batteries fall short for planes and ships: these need the good old high density liquid (hydrocarbon) fuels.
      [...]
      Just leaves nucelar.....

      But when the oil runs out Fischer–Tropsch synthetic fuels might be the solution, because we need planes and ships and planes can't fly with nuclear.

      The big idea is to have way too much capacity so that even at minimum production "no wind or sun over the whole of western Europe mythical day", the reliance on co generation or batteries is kept to a minimum.
      All the other days, 364 of them, the wind would produce hydrogen with the excess (otherwise lost - aka nearly free) energy and convert that to methane. Once we have methane, longer hydrocarbons are possible. But methane, of itself, is already a easy to manage fuel.

      The same method could be used to keep Nuclear plants running at optimal power levels, as they don't like low loads...

      But the problem is getting to methane, as the Sabatier method is a bit iffy, but serious efforts are going into this:
      https://www.technologyreview.com/s/510066/audi-to-make-fuel-using-solar-power/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/510066/audi-to-make-fuel-using-solar-power/) for example.
      But, to be honest, I can't even pretend to have dug into it.
      Could be the next big thing or "Solar Roadways II, the CH4 connection" for all I know...

      That mythical day where there was no sun for solar and no wind to spin wind-turbines was 2 weeks.  Both Great Brittan and Germany were affected.  Both burned more coal and purchased nuclear produced electricity from France.  If you look you will see a spike in Germany's burning of coal last year as a result of the renewables not producing.

      As for Audi - They need to look at the Hydrogen fuel video to see why this isn't going to work.  The amount of electricity involved in electrolysis of water into H-H O and storage is enormous. But they are adding a twist by using methane.  So maybe........  But highly unlikely this would work.  Watch the following vidoe.

      The new fields solve that by going further north, further out, covering a wider area in more locations and using higher turbines.
      Right now, the present capacity can be caught out, but that will be more and more unlikely.
      Flat days happen, we had one going round the Cape Fisterra two days back, and that is extremely rare!
      (But it was sunny and I had an after work tea just below the bridge with only the vastness of a flat Atlantic, lovely).

      As a side note, from a tech perspective, I am far more a fan boy of PV in vast open spaces (Central Spain, Morroco, Algerian Sahara) and modern nuclear than offshore wind on the long term.

      (PS, sorry, cannot watch Youtube, satellite internet... Doh!)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 25, 2018, 09:17:30 pm
      If in the end part of the solution were synthetic fuel it wouldn't surprise me. H2 from water electrolysis, C from biomass, and the required energy coming from PVs/other renewables, because li-ion batteries fall short for planes and ships: these need the good old high density liquid (hydrocarbon) fuels.
      [...]
      Just leaves nucelar.....

      But when the oil runs out Fischer–Tropsch synthetic fuels might be the solution, because we need planes and ships and planes can't fly with nuclear.

      The big idea is to have way too much capacity so that even at minimum production "no wind or sun over the whole of western Europe mythical day", the reliance on co generation or batteries is kept to a minimum.
      All the other days, 364 of them, the wind would produce hydrogen with the excess (otherwise lost - aka nearly free) energy and convert that to methane. Once we have methane, longer hydrocarbons are possible. But methane, of itself, is already a easy to manage fuel.

      The same method could be used to keep Nuclear plants running at optimal power levels, as they don't like low loads...

      But the problem is getting to methane, as the Sabatier method is a bit iffy, but serious efforts are going into this:
      https://www.technologyreview.com/s/510066/audi-to-make-fuel-using-solar-power/ (https://www.technologyreview.com/s/510066/audi-to-make-fuel-using-solar-power/) for example.
      But, to be honest, I can't even pretend to have dug into it.
      Could be the next big thing or "Solar Roadways II, the CH4 connection" for all I know...

      That mythical day where there was no sun for solar and no wind to spin wind-turbines was 2 weeks.  Both Great Brittan and Germany were affected.  Both burned more coal and purchased nuclear produced electricity from France.  If you look you will see a spike in Germany's burning of coal last year as a result of the renewables not producing.

      As for Audi - They need to look at the Hydrogen fuel video to see why this isn't going to work.  The amount of electricity involved in electrolysis of water into H-H O and storage is enormous. But they are adding a twist by using methane.  So maybe........  But highly unlikely this would work.  Watch the following vidoe.

      The new fields solve that by going further north, further out, covering a wider area in more locations and using higher turbines.
      Right now, the present capacity can be caught out, but that will be more and more unlikely.
      Flat days happen, we had one going round the Cape Fisterra two days back, and that is extremely rare!
      (But it was sunny and I had an after work tea just below the bridge with only the vastness of a flat Atlantic, lovely).

      As a side note, from a tech perspective, I am far more a fan boy of PV in vast open spaces (Central Spain, Morroco, Algerian Sahara) and modern nuclear than offshore wind on the long term.

      (PS, sorry, cannot watch Youtube, satellite internet... Doh!)

      Can’t you download and watch off-line?  Or would that coast a fortune.  I’m in agreement with you.  Nuclear in the populated areas and solar/wind in remote locations.  I know the USSR powered light houses and remote aircraft navigation radios with small nuclear power sources which were powered by radioactive Cesium. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 25, 2018, 09:24:46 pm
      Another error in this video is that it says that the round-trip efficiency of a li-ion battery is 99%, which it isn't.
      Just goes to show how difficult it is to get all of the fact's correct.  This is a complex topic.
      I'm going to sit on my ass and wait & see what turns out to be the next thing to propel a car. Batteries, synthetic fuel, bio-fuel or Hydrogen.  :popcorn:
      BTW I read an interesting article about synthetic blue diesel made from leftovers from the food industry. I doubt they keep that name for long because it also seems to be some kind of Marihuana.

      What about nuclear?   With the technology we have right now we know hydrogen, bio-mass, synthetic diesel, French Fry frying oil all will not work. Popcorn before it’s poped is something we are already using.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on September 30, 2018, 07:39:22 pm
      Interesting article about EVs in China:   The World’s Leading Electric-Car Visionary Isn’t Elon Musk (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-09-26/world-s-electric-car-visionary-isn-t-musk-it-s-china-s-wan-gang)

      I had no idea China was producing so many EVs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on September 30, 2018, 07:50:51 pm
      Is Tesla screwed after Elon's Tweet?  The SEC is investigating and could put an end to Tesla for Elon trying to manipulation of Tesla's stock price.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on September 30, 2018, 10:45:54 pm
      Dude, get with the program - he's been fined for $20 million (4 20) and has to find a new chairman for Tesla's board, but he's staying on as CEO.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on September 30, 2018, 11:57:25 pm
      Dude, get with the program - he's been fined for $20 million (4 20) and has to find a new chairman for Tesla's board, but he's staying on as CEO.
      AFAIK Musk has turned the deal down and is now being sued by the SEC. Ofcourse it will take years before there will be a trial and the whole point will be moot by then.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: a59d1 on October 01, 2018, 12:09:58 am
      Dude, get with the program - he's been fined for $20 million (4 20) and has to find a new chairman for Tesla's board, but he's staying on as CEO.
      AFAIK Musk has turned the deal down and is now being sued by the SEC. Ofcourse it will take years before there will be a trial and the whole point will be moot by then.

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-very-close-to-profitability-elon-musk-tells-employees-2018-09-30 (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-very-close-to-profitability-elon-musk-tells-employees-2018-09-30)

      He agreed to a new settlement yesterday.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 01, 2018, 02:10:24 am
      Like Elon or hate him he's more like Nikola Tesla than Elizabeth Holmes.  Tesla and Musk have both changed the world.  Yes both may have scammed people along the way and made exaggerated many claims but in the end they both produced a products which have changed and will continue to change our world.

      Holmes also made outrageous claims and scammed people as well.  The big difference here is Holmes and her partner were scamming the investors, killing people and did it all intentionally to make money.

      Got to hand it to Elon, Tesla. Gates, Jobs and Musk they are all people who have made our world better.  SEC should be going after Holmes and stripping her of all of her money, oh wait, they have.  Let's hope she gets free room and board at a club fed facilty for many years.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on October 01, 2018, 07:09:26 am
      The guy is an accident waiting to happen, oh wait they already happened.
      He should take some vacation, get its overworked system back in normal mode.
      You can't expect a burned out person to take rational decisions which is what is exactly needed in a big business environment IMO.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 01, 2018, 09:24:25 am
      Musk seems a lot more rational when he talks as the head of SpaceX, than when he talks as the head of Tesla. Perhaps there are people at SpaceX who keep him reined in.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: glarsson on October 01, 2018, 10:53:26 am
      Musk seems a lot more rational when he talks as the head of SpaceX, than when he talks as the head of Tesla. Perhaps there are people at SpaceX who keep him reigned in.
      SpaceX is not a public company, so they can work in their own pace without disturbance from quarterly reports, SEC and short sellers.
      Tesla is a public company...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 01, 2018, 03:35:19 pm
      What CEO smokes dope during a live broacasted interview?  Musk
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 02, 2018, 02:11:33 pm
      Appears Elon will pay a few hundred million in fines to the SEC for his tweet.  Wonder if that’s enough to break Tesla?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: drussell on October 02, 2018, 04:11:26 pm
      Appears Elon will pay a few hundred million in fines to the SEC for his tweet.

      What alternate universe did you get "a few hundred million" from?

      The settlement was $20M from Musk and $20M from Tesla.

      I fail to see how that adds up to "a few hundred million."  :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 02, 2018, 09:27:04 pm
      Rupees
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on October 03, 2018, 12:48:46 am
      Appears Elon will pay a few hundred million in fines to the SEC for his tweet.

      What alternate universe did you get "a few hundred million" from?

      The settlement was $20M from Musk and $20M from Tesla.

      I fail to see how that adds up to "a few hundred million."  :)
      That was in Octal.  40M=230455000 in octal. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: MT on October 14, 2018, 01:08:13 pm
      Another error in this video is that it says that the round-trip efficiency of a li-ion battery is 99%, which it isn't.
      Just goes to show how difficult it is to get all of the fact's correct.  This is a complex topic.
      I'm going to sit on my ass and wait & see what turns out to be the next thing to propel a car. Batteries, synthetic fuel, bio-fuel or Hydrogen.  :popcorn:
      BTW I read an interesting article about synthetic blue diesel made from leftovers from the food industry. I doubt they keep that name for long because it also seems to be some kind of Marihuana.

      What about nuclear?

      Ford nucleon 1957
      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e8/Ford_Nucleon.jpg
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on October 14, 2018, 11:15:20 pm
      Musk seems a lot more rational when he talks as the head of SpaceX, than when he talks as the head of Tesla. Perhaps there are people at SpaceX who keep him reigned in.

      He's probably not addressing the same public, which would explain this.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on October 15, 2018, 02:21:55 am
      Musk seems a lot more rational when he talks as the head of SpaceX, than when he talks as the head of Tesla. Perhaps there are people at SpaceX who keep him reigned in.

      It's "reined"-----he isn't a king!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: cdev on October 22, 2018, 07:55:27 pm
      People in the US should be aware the price of electricity may jump up by several hundred percent in the next few years and keep going up as we export our natural gas - (that will go up too) "until its gone".

      That may change the economics of things energy (and heating) related.

      Energy use at today's levels may become too expensive for many people.

      They want to burn more coal but that may present a mercury hazard. Mercury uses up glutathione which will cause all sorts of problems- for example, disrupting "a novel regulatory pathway of oxidant-mediated Fyn/c-Cbl activation as a shared mechanism of action of chemically diverse toxicants at environmentally relevant levels, and as a means by which increased oxidative status may disrupt mitogenic signaling. These results provide one of a small number of general mechanistic principles in toxicology, and the only such principle integrating toxicology, precursor cell biology, redox biology, and signaling pathway analysis in a predictive framework of broad potential relevance to the understanding of pro-oxidant–mediated disruption of normal development".  Source: Chemically Diverse Toxicants Converge on Fyn and c-Cbl to Disrupt Precursor Cell Function

      We should not allow MNCs to use up the natural gas we may need in the future, and shift production to coal.

      Putting lots of mercury into the environment will also cause increases in conditions like autism.
      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1790953/pdf/pbio.0050035.pdf (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1790953/pdf/pbio.0050035.pdf)

      and

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1790949/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1790949/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on October 23, 2018, 12:03:04 am
      People in the US should be aware the price of electricity may jump up by several hundred percent in the next few years and keep going up as we export our natural gas - (that will go up too) "until its gone".
      Solar adoption will increase by a very large amount as it's already profitable to install.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 23, 2018, 05:58:05 am
      People in the US should be aware the price of electricity may jump up by several hundred percent in the next few years and keep going up as we export our natural gas - (that will go up too) "until its gone".

      That may change the economics of things energy (and heating) related.

      Energy use at today's levels may become too expensive for many people.

      They want to burn more coal but that may present a mercury hazard. Mercury uses up glutathione which will cause all sorts of problems- for example, disrupting "a novel regulatory pathway of oxidant-mediated Fyn/c-Cbl activation as a shared mechanism of action of chemically diverse toxicants at environmentally relevant levels, and as a means by which increased oxidative status may disrupt mitogenic signaling. These results provide one of a small number of general mechanistic principles in toxicology, and the only such principle integrating toxicology, precursor cell biology, redox biology, and signaling pathway analysis in a predictive framework of broad potential relevance to the understanding of pro-oxidant–mediated disruption of normal development".  Source: Chemically Diverse Toxicants Converge on Fyn and c-Cbl to Disrupt Precursor Cell Function

      We should not allow MNCs to use up the natural gas we may need in the future, and shift production to coal.

      Putting lots of mercury into the environment will also cause increases in conditions like autism.
      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1790953/pdf/pbio.0050035.pdf (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1790953/pdf/pbio.0050035.pdf)

      and

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1790949/ (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1790949/)

      Not only does the burning of cal release mercury into our environment, it also releases radioactive isotopes.  Our oceans have so much mercury in them we have been advised to limit our intake of fish which have high levels of mercury.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 23, 2018, 08:13:12 am
      I wouldn't worry about mercury or radioactive isotopes. SO2 from burning coal will kill you much sooner. If you look at the SO2 output in the west part of the US you'll see it is shockingly bad. Especially for a 'developed' country.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on October 23, 2018, 10:02:05 am
      There'an app for that: Electricity Map.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: cdev on October 23, 2018, 11:53:58 pm
      They really do need to stop using the sludge from fracking operations as they would salt on roads in winter, because oftentimes that is also radioactive (https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/122-a50)!

      I wouldn't worry about mercury or radioactive isotopes. SO2 from burning coal will kill you much sooner. If you look at the SO2 output in the west part of the US you'll see it is shockingly bad. Especially for a 'developed' country.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on October 24, 2018, 03:36:31 am
      My Tesla S is equal to 1/4 energy usage compared to a Mustang muscle car. Plus, it s a luxury car, dead cow seats, and should happen to outlast a mustang.

      Aluminium body, suspension and made in USA workers mostly 90% parts. A few crappy parts in mine are a Mercedes steering stalk that Consumer reports said sucked in the Mercedes.


      the model 3 controls look much better.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 24, 2018, 04:49:26 am
      It appears that despite all of Musks shenanigans and all the Musk hater, TSLA short seller gyrations, the model 3 is a hit and production has ramped up impressively. Tesla is smoking the competition and even some of the large short sellers are changing their position (https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Citron-reverses-opinion-on-Tesla-story-too-compelling-to-ignore.pdf).

      It remains to be seen if this will be too late in coming to save Tesla as an independent company but it is an impressive feat IMO given the forces aligned against them. I suspect a bigger problem is about to emerge for not only Tesla but all auto makers. Auto sales are collapsing in mass and the global economic Ponzi scheme is on the cusp of implosion.  Interesting times.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=554804;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on October 24, 2018, 08:56:17 pm
      Yep, even better, the model 3 was in september the 13. model most sold in the US.
      Should be in the top 10 soon !

      The model 3 now is to be compared to generic ICE cars from now on.
      Other EVs are so far behind in comparison.

      (https://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/a.png)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 24, 2018, 09:01:38 pm
      Yep, even better, the model 3 was in september the 13. model most sold in the US.
      Should be in the top 10 soon !

      The model 3 now is to be compared to generic ICE cars from now on.
      Other EVs are so far behind in comparison.

      (https://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/a.png)
      With their huge backlog, Tesla's current sales per month don't represent demand. They represent how many cars Tesla can actually assemble and ship. We will need to wait until supply catches up with demand to see how monthly shipments settle for the longer term.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 24, 2018, 09:26:07 pm
      Looks like Citron was right. Tesla just reported blow out earnings.

      Revenue, EPS, Revenue, Net Income, and Gross margin were all way beyond any analysts forecasts. Glad I'm not short TSLA. Stock is up 14+% after hours:

      (https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-10-24%20%282%29.jpg?itok=zn-Be01_)

      (https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/tesla%20deliv.jpg?itok=wPy5BZjj)

      With their huge backlog, Tesla's current sales per month don't represent demand. They represent how many cars Tesla can actually assemble and ship. We will need to wait until supply catches up with demand to see how monthly shipments settle for the longer term.

      If your read the Citron report I linked in my prior post, you'll see that they account for that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 24, 2018, 10:06:10 pm
      With their huge backlog, Tesla's current sales per month don't represent demand. They represent how many cars Tesla can actually assemble and ship. We will need to wait until supply catches up with demand to see how monthly shipments settle for the longer term.

      If your read the Citron report I linked in my prior post, you'll see that they account for that.
      I read that, but it just says Tesla sales appear to be at the expense of other car makers, rather than an expansion of the market. We could have guessed that. It indicates the possibility that cars at a surprising wide range of prices are loosing out to Tesla, which is somewhat surprising. However, they fail to point out that those makers who have seen drops in sales of sedans potentially competing with the Tesla Model 3 have seem healthy rises in their sales of SUVs, so a shift in consumer preference might be what they are seeing, rather than a shift to Tesla purchases.

      It doesn't seem to say anything about the point at which supply is no longer constrained.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 24, 2018, 10:13:17 pm
      With their huge backlog, Tesla's current sales per month don't represent demand. They represent how many cars Tesla can actually assemble and ship. We will need to wait until supply catches up with demand to see how monthly shipments settle for the longer term.

      If your read the Citron report I linked in my prior post, you'll see that they account for that.
      I read that, but it just says Tesla sales appear to be at the expense of other car makers, rather than an expansion of the market. We could have guessed that. It indicates the possibility that cars at a surprising wide range of prices are loosing out to Tesla, which is somewhat surprising. However, they fail to point out that those makers who have seen drops in sales of sedans potentially competing with the Tesla Model 3 have seem healthy rises in their sales of SUVs, so a shift in consumer preference might be what they are seeing, rather than a shift to Tesla purchases.

      It doesn't seem to say anything about the point at which supply is no longer constrained.

      I agree that they are just speculating.

      Overall car sales have dropped off precipitously in recent months so that may account for those drops, not Tesla stealing market share.  Still given the drop off in auto sales, Tesla's Q3 performance is impressive.

      However, I suspect that no matter what, they will suffer, as will all automakers in the months ahead.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 25, 2018, 01:17:14 am
      Something else no one has pointed out....  Are the top three selling cars trucks?  Eliminate the trucks and Tesla is bumped up to #10.  Love Elon or hate him with all odds against him that guy is sure kicking some ass and has changed the world. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 25, 2018, 01:27:07 am
      Anyone know how popular Tesla’s are in Germany?  To my surprise at one of the fueling stops on the autobahn I noticed four (empty) Tesla fast charging stations near Frankfurt.  Would Germans’s even buy a an American Tesla when they could by a German made BMW or Mercedes?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on October 25, 2018, 06:31:16 am
      When the Tesla pickup truck comes out, and Ford no longer making cars....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 25, 2018, 07:40:34 am
      Anyone know how popular Tesla’s are in Germany?  To my surprise at one of the fueling stops on the autobahn I noticed four (empty) Tesla fast charging stations near Frankfurt.  Would Germans’s even buy a an American Tesla when they could by a German made BMW or Mercedes?
      On my travels in Germany I have seen maybe one or two Teslas. In the Netherlands they are common but in surrounding countries I don't see them at all. The distances are probably to big for an EV to be practical.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on October 25, 2018, 06:35:02 pm
      Germany loves cars, and teslas are quite popular, compared to rest of Europe.
      On the Autobahn, at high speeds, batteries drain fast, and the extremely good aerodynamics are a huge advantage, makin a Tesla the only long distance EV available.
      And Germans travel a lot.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on October 25, 2018, 07:17:13 pm
      The distances are probably to big for an EV to be practical.
      Just did SFO to san diego and back. not a problem at all. Drive three hours, plug in a supercharger while going pipi and starbucks and off we go gain... topped of for the cost of a cup of coffee ( supercharingg is free )
      Range is NOT a problem if you have a 80KW or more pack.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 25, 2018, 07:18:52 pm
      Germany loves cars, and teslas are quite popular, compared to rest of Europe.
      On the Autobahn, at high speeds, batteries drain fast, and the extremely good aerodynamics are a huge advantage, makin a Tesla the only long distance EV available.
      And Germans travel a lot.
      Why do I never see a Tesla in Germany then? In the Netherlands I can easely count two Tesla's when driving 20 minutes. I can drive from the middle to the south of Germany for hours without seeing one Tesla. Explain to me how Teslas are popular in Germany? According to the numbers they aren't popular in Germany http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/ (http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/). Including 2017 more Teslas have been sold in the Netherlands than Germany. Plot that against 8 million cars in the Netherlands versus 46 million cars in Germany and you see where the reality is at.

      @free_electron: that would add one hour each day to a typical trip we make :palm: With a car which costs 20 times more  :palm: :palm: I rather spend that time in bed or looking at something interesting instead of a gas station.

      edit: BTW it seems Germany is gearing towards Hydrogen. I've noticed quite a few Hydrogen filling stations along the highways.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 25, 2018, 08:40:51 pm
      Could it be Teslas’s are popular regionally in Germany?  I was just outside Frankfurt to the North which is above the Weißwurstäquator.  Could it be Tesla’s are popular once one is above the white weenie line?

      I was a bit surprised to see 4 of 5 spaces for fast chargers where in California around San Francisco most I have seen is 2 spaces.  Future growth in Germany?   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 25, 2018, 09:17:27 pm
      Why do I never see a Tesla in Germany then? In the Netherlands I can easely count two Tesla's when driving 20 minutes. I can drive from the middle to the south of Germany for hours without seeing one Tesla. Explain to me how Teslas are popular in Germany? According to the numbers they aren't popular in Germany http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/ (http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/). Including 2017 more Teslas have been sold in the Netherlands than Germany. Plot that against 8 million cars in the Netherlands versus 46 million cars in Germany and you see where the reality is at.
      In the Netherlands the likelihood of spotting a Tesla seems to depend a lot on your exact location. Its a couple of years since I was last in Amsterdam, but while there were huge numbers of Tesla S taxis around Schiphol Airport, just a few km away it was rare to see one.
      edit: BTW it seems Germany is gearing towards Hydrogen. I've noticed quite a few Hydrogen filling stations along the highways.
      Is that new, or a left over from a few years ago? There was a period when BMW had a quantity of experimental hydrogen powered cars on German roads, but I think they have mostly gone.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 25, 2018, 09:24:05 pm
      Why do I never see a Tesla in Germany then? In the Netherlands I can easely count two Tesla's when driving 20 minutes. I can drive from the middle to the south of Germany for hours without seeing one Tesla. Explain to me how Teslas are popular in Germany? According to the numbers they aren't popular in Germany http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/ (http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/). Including 2017 more Teslas have been sold in the Netherlands than Germany. Plot that against 8 million cars in the Netherlands versus 46 million cars in Germany and you see where the reality is at.
      In the Netherlands the likelihood of spotting a Tesla seems to depend a lot on your exact location. Its a couple of years since I was last in Amsterdam, but while there were huge numbers of Tesla S taxis around Schiphol Airport, just a few km away it was rare to see one.
      No I'm not counting Tesla taxis...
      Quote
      edit: BTW it seems Germany is gearing towards Hydrogen. I've noticed quite a few Hydrogen filling stations along the highways.
      Is that new, or a left over from a few years ago? There was a period when BMW had a quantity of experimental hydrogen powered cars on German roads, but I think they have mostly gone.
      These are new and they are installing many more in 2019. In the Netherlands they are also installing more (new) Hydrogen filling stations.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 25, 2018, 09:29:03 pm
      edit: BTW it seems Germany is gearing towards Hydrogen. I've noticed quite a few Hydrogen filling stations along the highways.
      Is that new, or a left over from a few years ago? There was a period when BMW had a quantity of experimental hydrogen powered cars on German roads, but I think they have mostly gone.
      These are new and they are installing many more in 2019. In the Netherlands they are also installing more (new) Hydrogen filling stations.
      Who makes the cars? If you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_vehicle they say only 3 hydrogen powered cars were being made in 2016, and things have not been updated since then. Those 3 cars are not serious volume production cars, and they are very expensive. They are part experimental and part compliance cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 25, 2018, 09:52:30 pm
      edit: BTW it seems Germany is gearing towards Hydrogen. I've noticed quite a few Hydrogen filling stations along the highways.
      Is that new, or a left over from a few years ago? There was a period when BMW had a quantity of experimental hydrogen powered cars on German roads, but I think they have mostly gone.
      These are new and they are installing many more in 2019. In the Netherlands they are also installing more (new) Hydrogen filling stations.
      Who makes the cars? If you look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_vehicle they say only 3 hydrogen powered cars were being made in 2016, and things have not been updated since then. Those 3 cars are not serious volume production cars, and they are very expensive. They are part experimental and part compliance cars.
      At least Audio, Honda, Hyundai, Mercedes and Toyota have cars on Hydrogen and several of these cars are for currently for sale. Sure they are expensive but the price is on par with a mass produced high-end EV. However the Hydrogen filling stations aren't installed to cater a hand full of cars and I expect the prices of the cars will gradually become lower when the production volumes increase. Having the Hydrogen filling stations offer the infrastructure to use Hydrogen cars and solve the chicken & egg problem.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 25, 2018, 10:15:15 pm
      In the US I think ir’s Toyota that is selling a H2 powered. Car and offering 3 yers of free fuel.  With the technology we have we know Hydrogen powered cars can’t compete with ICE or EVs.  And that’s before we start talking about re-fueling infrastructure.  I posted a link to a well researched YouTube video on Hydrogen cars.  Look back in previous posts.  As I recall the bottom line with Hydrogen cars is they require way too much energy to produce, compress, store and transport the fuel then is availed to power the car.  The other issue is fuel tank size.  If an ICE car can get 350 miles from a petro fuel tank, a Hydrogen powered car would need a tank 4-5 times the size to travel same miles. 

      Until we find a way to break the laws of Physics and Thermodynamics Hydrogen cars will never be viable solution.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 25, 2018, 10:27:12 pm
      In the US I think ir’s Toyota that is selling a H2 powered. Car and offering 3 yers of free fuel.
      I think the Toyota Mirai, Honda Clarity and Hyundai ix35 are all available in the US. However, they are only available in a few places, like California, and only in small numbers. because they are loss makers which exist only as compliance cars. Mercedes have demoed the GLC F-Cell and Audi have demoed the H-Tron Quattro. I've never seen a clear indication whether either of these will ever come to market. Although BMW had demo cars quite a long time ago, which ran an ICE engine from hydrogen, I haven't seen any recent activity from them.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 25, 2018, 11:01:47 pm
      In the US I think ir’s Toyota that is selling a H2 powered. Car and offering 3 yers of free fuel.  With the technology we have we know Hydrogen powered cars can’t compete with ICE or EVs.  And that’s before we start talking about re-fueling infrastructure.  I posted a link to a well researched YouTube video on Hydrogen cars.  Look back in previous posts.  As I recall the bottom line with Hydrogen cars is they require way too much energy to produce, compress, store and transport the fuel then is availed to power the car.  The other issue is fuel tank size.  If an ICE car can get 350 miles from a petro fuel tank, a Hydrogen powered car would need a tank 4-5 times the size to travel same miles. 

      Until we find a way to break the laws of Physics and Thermodynamics Hydrogen cars will never be viable solution.
      You mean that video riddled with errors? I'm pretty sure the reality is different. A Hydrogen filling station costs around 1.5 million euro's each to build. In Germany alone they are going to install 1000 of these stations. The UK and France are following the same path. That means the total investment for Hydrogen stations is going to be several billions of euros spread over only three countries alone. These kind of investments are not put into a technology which has no future at all. For my usage a Hydrogen car would make much more sense compared to an EV (which I can't charge at home and which takes too long to charge at a charging station).

      You are also mistaken about the Hydrogen tank size. In the Toyota Mirai it has the same volume as a regular fuel tank. Don't forget the energy density of Hydrogen is several times higher compared to gasoline.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 25, 2018, 11:21:20 pm
      You mean that video riddled with errors? I'm pretty sure the reality is different. A Hydrogen filling station costs around 1.5 million euro's each to build. In Germany alone they are going to install 1000 of these stations. The UK and France are following the same path.
      There are a few hydrogen filling points in the UK. You can find videos on YouTube about some of them, mostly showing them to be out of commission. There are some maps on the web showing plans to add a few points, but not enough to make it viable for most people to operate a hydrogen car. It looks like a number of early stations have now been abandoned. I'm not clear of they were ever intended to be more than experiments. Most people are 100km or more from the nearest filling point. This might be a chicken and egg problem - no filling stations means no cars. no cars means no filling stations - but efficiency and cost seem to be big hurdles. Electric cars have a comparatively easy time achieving significant penetration, because home charging is possible.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 25, 2018, 11:32:16 pm
      Electric cars have a comparatively easy time achieving significant penetration, because home charging is possible.
      But that will stagnate once the market with people who can charge at home AND are willing to pay extra for an EV is saturated.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 25, 2018, 11:47:31 pm
      You mean that video riddled with errors? I'm pretty sure the reality is different.


      First you clamin the video is riddleed with errors.  THen you say you pretty sure reality is different.  WHat kind of BS is this.  Where's your science to show the vide has errors.  Or are you one of those people whod doeswn't use scince and will say God told you?

      Will my God told me your God is wrong. 

      Evidnce please.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on October 26, 2018, 01:27:34 am

      @free_electron: that would add one hour each day to a typical trip we make :palm: With a car which costs 20 times more  :palm: :palm: I rather spend that time in bed or looking at something interesting instead of a gas station.
      you mean each-way or each day ?

      Keep in mind that, in roughly 30 minutes you get 70 to 80% of the pack. Chargers are spaced conveniently roughly 50 to 100km apart on a mesh grid. you never really need to wait the full time. Charge it the night before a long trip ( while you are sleeping) then just do short push charging in the 15 to 20 minute range. After 2 to three hours of driving i like to get out of the car and get a cup of coffee , go for a snack or visit the restroom. I've done many big trips ( 7 to 8 hour drives ) without charge anxiety or time loss. You set the destination and the car tells you where to pull off to charge and how long.

      you are right that it may not work for people living in apartments/ without garage/driveway due to the inability to find a charge plug. But the world is larger than people in that situation. Here ( in California) many counties have enacted laws that make it mandatory for any new construction or renovation to implement a 240 volt 40 amp circuit specifically for EV's in the garage. Similar laws force builders to pre-install the pipes and wiring for a solar array and inverter. The fuseboxes need the room for the breakers, switchover relays. and many local town now also make solar arrays mandatory for any new residential and commercial construction.

      Combine a solar array with a powerpack and you can got totally off-grid.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 26, 2018, 01:59:20 am
      Combine a solar array with a powerpack and you can got totally off-grid.

      Great in theory, until you put it into practice.  In California 99.99% of the people who install solar do so without battery packs.  According to Dave battery packs between loses 40% of there energy to heat.  So for evert 100 kWhr that are used to charge the batteries, you only get 60 back plus a fair amount of heat.

      If one is a PG&E customer one would be a fool to have batteries.  PG&E customers can sell excess electricity to PG&E for $0.50 kWhr and then buy that KWhr back for $0.12 later that same day. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on October 26, 2018, 01:03:41 pm
      If one is a PG&E customer one would be a fool to have batteries.  PG&E customers can sell excess electricity to PG&E for $0.50 kWhr and then buy that KWhr back for $0.12 later that same day.

      And that's a scam. At least in Spain. Everybody else paying for your solar power. A scam, yes, a big one.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on October 26, 2018, 02:59:13 pm
      Great in theory, until you put it into practice.  In California 99.99% of the people who install solar do so without battery packs.  According to Dave battery packs between loses 40% of there energy to heat.  So for every 100 kWhr that are used to charge the batteries, you only get 60 back plus a fair amount of heat.
      The people in Puerto Rico , florida and other hurricane ravaged places beg to differ ... the packs is what keeps them running .... Even the Aussies have a 100 megawatt (128MWh, 100Mw inverter) battery . Kauai , and Samoa run off a gigantic battery pack at night. They have shut down all their diesel generators and the whole island is a solar / wind / battery system.

      Oh, and by-the-way. PG&E commisioned a 1.1GWh pack. It needs to sustain 180MW for 6 hours...
      As for the 40% heatloss. Check your numbers ...

      https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/07/california-utility-looks-to-add-gigawatt-hours-of-battery-storage-before-2020/ (https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/07/california-utility-looks-to-add-gigawatt-hours-of-battery-storage-before-2020/)
      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/31/the-tesla-grid-controller-debuts-helping-samoa-toward-100-renewable-electricity-goal/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/31/the-tesla-grid-controller-debuts-helping-samoa-toward-100-renewable-electricity-goal/)
      https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-is-turning-kauai-into-a-renewable-energy-paradise/ (https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-is-turning-kauai-into-a-renewable-energy-paradise/)
      https://www.inverse.com/article/45511-tesla-solar-elon-musk-reveals-the-staggering-scale-of-puerto-rico-projects (https://www.inverse.com/article/45511-tesla-solar-elon-musk-reveals-the-staggering-scale-of-puerto-rico-projects)
      https://electrek.co/2018/06/03/tesla-energy-storage-projects-puerto-rico-elon-musk/ (https://electrek.co/2018/06/03/tesla-energy-storage-projects-puerto-rico-elon-musk/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on October 26, 2018, 03:20:45 pm
      As for the 40% heatloss. Check your numbers ...

      What's a better, closer to reality losses % figure, in your opinion?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on October 26, 2018, 04:10:27 pm
      As for the 40% heatloss. Check your numbers ...

      What's a better, closer to reality losses % figure, in your opinion?
      i don't have any hard numbers , i've never looked into it but :

      the packs are passively cooled. So a 40% heat loss is unlikely. They would heat up so much that they would blow up .
      You figure out how much you can dissipate in a battery that is mounted on an island where it is 30 degree air temperature, exposed to the sun. how much can you burn off in the cells before they become damaged. it is not going to be anywhere near 40%.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 26, 2018, 05:16:07 pm
      1) The 40% number is bullshit and just one of Fact-Free Doug's trolls.
      2) It's been refuted in this thread before with both first hand observations and published data.
      3) 80-95% charge/discharge efficiency is the reality.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 26, 2018, 05:41:49 pm

      @free_electron: that would add one hour each day to a typical trip we make :palm: With a car which costs 20 times more  :palm: :palm: I rather spend that time in bed or looking at something interesting instead of a gas station.
      you mean each-way or each day ?
      Each day on a typical trip.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 26, 2018, 06:47:56 pm
      According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 26, 2018, 06:57:34 pm
      According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging.
      Those numbers seem reasonable, if they include the thermal losses in the electronics, as well as the batteries themselves.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 26, 2018, 07:06:14 pm
      According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging.
      Those numbers seem reasonable, if they include the thermal losses in the electronics, as well as the batteries themselves.
      I strongly doubt these numbers. Maybe worst case at maximum charge & discharge currents with the batteries in a very hot environment. A battery pack isn't worth it anyway (*) and with 40% loss it just doesn't make sense.

      * Unless you can charge at a low rate and sell high but that situation isn't going to last forever and even then you'd need to take wear of the batteries into account.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on October 26, 2018, 08:20:59 pm
      In Germany alone they are going to install 1000 of these stations.
      Ja nee klar. Was für n'en schmarrn!
      As soon as France has finished installing 1000 km of solarized roadways, germany will have installed 1000 H2 filling stations.
       :-DD :-DD :-DD :-DD :-DD :-DD

      On another note, in 2017, german people bought 3332 Tesla vehicles.
      That sould only double in 2019 because the model 3 arrives late.

      FCEV vehicles, all brands together have just scored a few tens in all of 2017. And that is heavily subsidized in Germany. Just hopeless.
      It's so damn low that the KBA does not even bother to list Hydrogen as a fual source, even if FCEVs are THE most subsidized vehicle now in germany.
      https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Umwelt/2017_n_umwelt_dusl.html?nn=652326 (https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Umwelt/2017_n_umwelt_dusl.html?nn=652326)
      it's that bad, really.
       :-DD :-DD :-DD :-DD :-DD :-DD
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 26, 2018, 08:29:36 pm
      In Germany alone they are going to install 1000 of these stations.
      Ja nee klar. Was für n'en schmarrn!
      As soon as France has finished installing 1000 km of solarized croadways, germany will have installed 1000 H2 filling stations.
       :-DD :-DD :-DD :-DD :-DD :-DD

      On another note, in 2017, german people bought 3332 Tesla vehicles.
      That sould only double in 2019 because the model 3 arrives late.
      And the Dutch people also bought a similar amount of Teslas. Again: Teslas are over 6 times less popular in Germany compared to the Netherlands. These are the numbers. And you may laugh about the Hydrogen filling stations but they seem to pop-up everywhere in Germany since recently so there is some serious money and push behind Hyrdogen. Sure it will take some time to get a dense network but due to better range and faster filling of Hydrogen cars nowhere near the number of electric charging stations are needed to get good coverage.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 26, 2018, 08:32:34 pm
      And you may laugh about the Hydrogen filling stations but they seem to pop-up everywhere in Germany since recently so there is some serious money and push behind Hyrdrogen.
      Who is paying for these stations? Is it a government scheme, or private industry?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 26, 2018, 08:36:09 pm
      And you may laugh about the Hydrogen filling stations but they seem to pop-up everywhere in Germany since recently so there is some serious money and push behind Hyrdrogen.
      Who is paying for these stations? Is it a government scheme, or private industry?
      AFAIK private industry (Shell, Total and Mercedes are names I see popping up) with a minimal amount of government funding (2 million euros per project in the Netherlands).
      (https://opwegmetwaterstof.nl/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Hyundai_ix35_Fuel_Cell_electric_vehicle_at_Hydrogen_Gas_Station_1-1024x768.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on October 26, 2018, 08:39:42 pm
      Who is paying for these stations? Is it a government scheme, or private industry?
      In Germany, the state subsidizes those station with 60-70%.
      So everyone pays, and only a few journalists and specialized firms, or OEM prototypes get to use it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 26, 2018, 08:45:25 pm
      Who is paying for these stations? Is it a government scheme, or private industry?
      In Germany, the state subsidizes those station with 70%.
      So everyone pays, and only a few journalists and specialized firms get to use it.
      Maybe but it shows that the people doing the actual math aren't sure at all about EVs being a good alternative for ICE based cars. The Netherlands for example has the most dense EV charging infrastructure in Europe (and maybe the world) but the adoption rate of EVs is still next to nothing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on October 26, 2018, 08:56:24 pm
      the adoption rate of EVs is still next to nothing.
      Don't worry. The Model 3 arrives soon. It will double fast, then double again, then double again, then double again, then double again, then double again, then double again soon.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on October 26, 2018, 09:00:29 pm
      In Germany, the state subsidizes those station with 70%.
      Maybe but it shows that the people doing the actual math aren't sure at all about EVs being a good alternative for ICE based cars.
      Not really.
      The people in the german government giving free money to OEMs and oil companies to build useless H2 stations don't do the math.
      They want to feed their corporate sponsors with the greenwashed money from taxpayers
      The companies building the H2 stations only want the free money raining down, so they build the damned things.
      The people doing the math are the one buying cars, and they buy litterally 50 000% more Teslas than hydrogen cars in germany today.
      Add another zero for BEVs in general vs FCEVs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 26, 2018, 09:56:06 pm
      According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging.
      Those numbers seem reasonable, if they include the thermal losses in the electronics, as well as the batteries themselves.


      So why does the mtdoc dude keep saying 40% number is bullshit and just one of Fact-Free Doug's trolls? 

      Dave has a video blog on the efficiency of charging/discharging batteries and that's his number from his video. 


      mtdoc the  80-95% charge/discharge efficiency is the reality you are claiming is what's bullshit.  Try holding a phone while it's being changed and tell me if you can feel it getting warm.  That ain't no 10% heat loss.  Then talking on the phone for 30 mionutes and tell if your phone isn't getting hot.  That ain't no 10% either.

      If you are going to challenge Dave's 20% loss due to charging and 20% loss due to discharging tell him he's full of shit and propvide you own imperical evidence.  I trust Dave's testing methodology and numbers than you just saying they are bullshit.  And it appears at least one person thinks Dave's numbers sound about right. 


      mtdoc, instead of calling my posts fact-free and Dave's numbers bullshit, why not post the resuts of your tests.  Or is it you are the troll? 


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on October 27, 2018, 02:21:36 am
      Just the charging of a Li-ion type battery can't be 95% efficient. The typical charging efficiency of Li-ion batteries is about 90% on average (for good batteries in decent shape, that is, and can be as low as 80%) and if you add the charger's efficiency itself, which will probably be in the order of 90% at best, you're already down to 81%. Those figures sound like reasonable estimates.

      As for discharge, I'm sure it depends a lot on the battery itself and use conditions, but an average of 90% looks like a reasonsable (if even optimistic) estimate.
      All combined, you're already down to 73%.

      Then you will have losses in the power electronics circuitry and  electric motor(s).

      It wouldn't seem like an unreasonable estimate to end up at 50% to 60%, at the very best, of overall efficiency for an electric car, taken from charging power to the power delivered at the wheels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on October 27, 2018, 09:41:02 am
      According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging.

      I can't find that video, which one is it, please?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on October 27, 2018, 04:35:30 pm

      mtdoc the  80-95% charge/discharge efficiency is the reality you are claiming is what's bullshit.  Try holding a phone while it's being changed and tell me if you can feel it getting warm.  That ain't no 10% heat loss.  Then talking on the phone for 30 mionutes and tell if your phone isn't getting hot.  That ain't no 10% either.

      If you are going to challenge Dave's 20% loss due to charging and 20% loss due to discharging tell him he's full of shit and propvide you own imperical evidence.  I trust Dave's testing methodology and numbers than you just saying they are bullshit.  And it appears at least one person thinks Dave's numbers sound about right. 


      mtdoc, instead of calling my posts fact-free and Dave's numbers bullshit, why not post the resuts of your tests.  Or is it you are the troll?

      OK, I'll call your posts fact-free then.

      I see (real world)
      15-16 kWh consumption (as reported by car)
      18 kWh from the socket on the wall (as reported by my charger)

      for 20% worse case charging loss.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 27, 2018, 04:54:14 pm
      I see (real world)
      15-16 kWh consumption (as reported by car)
      18 kWh from the socket on the wall (as reported by my charger)

      for 20% worse case charging loss.
      18kWh from the socket sounds like pretty solid information. 15-16kWh consumption reported by the car is more vague. Is that 15-16kWh at the wheels? Somewhere in the electronics? Out of the battery?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 27, 2018, 07:41:39 pm
      According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging.

      I can't find that video, which one is it, please?

      Not sure how Dave organizes his videos.  But it was around the eara where he was talking about the solar panels he had installed on his house.  It was not the solar pannel video, but a related one about batteries and the efficiency of batteries.  Can’t say for sure but he may have used the video to justify why he did not install banks of batteries.  Takeaway message when dealing with batteries expect to loose 20% when charging batteries and another 20% when discharging.  Total loss to heat when working with recharagable batteries Can be 40%.

      Interestingly in the video “Truth about Hydrogen” cars they also independently come up with the 40 heat loss in charging and discharging batteries.

       https://youtu.be/f7MzFfuNOtY
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 27, 2018, 07:43:11 pm
      According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging.

      I can't find that video, which one is it, please?

      Yes, please tell us.

      I see (real world)
      15-16 kWh consumption (as reported by car)
      18 kWh from the socket on the wall (as reported by my charger)

      for 20% worse case charging loss.


      With my Chevy Volt, I've measured efficiencies between 85-92% based on displayed kWh used versus kWh delivered by the EVSE.     Depending on how much of capacity I use and on ambient temperatures. Even when "fully discharged", the Volt's system is designed to only use the middle 80% or so of the total battery capacity - so it is mostly in the most efficient part of the charging curve.

      Independent testing by the DOE's Idaho National Laboratory (https://avt.inl.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/phev/EfficiencyResultsChevroletVoltOnBoardCharger.pdf) found the  overall efficiency to be 88.8% for a Level 1 EVSE and 90.8% for a level 2.

      Quote
      The Chevrolet Volt OBCM was benchmark tested for AC to DC efficiency. Charging with Level 2 EVSE at 208 VAC input (60 Hz), the Volt onboard charger was calculated to be 91.7% efficient, operating near 3.3 kW with a power factor of 0.997. Charging with Level 1 EVSE at 120 VAC input (60 Hz) the Volt onboard charger was calculated to be90.6% efficient, operating near 1.3 AC kW. Given that most Level 2 EVSE are greater than 99% efficient when operating above 3.0 kW (208 to 240 VAC) and Level 1 EVSE are 98% efficient when operating above 1.25 AC kW (120 VAC), the overall AC to DC charging efficiency for the Chevrolet Volt is 90.8% for Level 2 and 88.8% for Level 1
      .

      These facts have been presented on this forum before  ::)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 27, 2018, 07:47:07 pm
      Not sure how Dave organizes his videos.  But it was around the eara where he was talking about the solar panels he had installed on his house.  It was not the solar pannel video, but a related one about batteries and the efficiency of batteries.  Can’t say for sure but he may have used the video to justify why he did not install banks of batteries.  Takeaway message when dealing with batteries expect to loose 20% when charging batteries and another 20% when discharging.  Total loss to heat when working with recharagable batteries Can be 40%.

      Ok, so nothing to back up your claim then?  Why am I not surprised....  Also - charge efficiency for the FLA batteries typically used for home RE applications is much different (lower) than for the Lithium batteries used in EVs. And BTW - Dave is sometimes wrong - so your appeal to authority argument holds no weight - even if he did say that (which you have yet to show).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 27, 2018, 08:16:27 pm

      The Chevrolet Volt OBCM was benchmark tested for AC to DC efficiency.
       
      These facts have been presented on this forum before  ::)

      Yes these facts have been presented before but dude are you that draft?  The research article is in reference to has to Do with the efficiency of a Chevy Volt OBCM charger?  Ummmm. You do realize we are a talking about batteries   Do know the difference between an battery and a battery charger?

      And you call people trolls.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 27, 2018, 08:32:25 pm
      And the FFD pattern repeats. :palm:

      If you don't understand the relationship between a charger's efficiency and battery charging efficiency perhaps you're on the wrong forum. Or at least stick to the beginner's section.

      Still waiting for you to provide proof that Dave said charging has 40% losses....

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 27, 2018, 09:06:53 pm
      And the FFD pattern repeats. :palm:

      If you don't understand the relationship between a charger's efficiency and battery charging efficiency perhaps you're on the wrong forum. Or at least stick to the beginner's section.

      Still waiting for you to provide proof that Dave said charging has 40% losses....

      It’s in the video, 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 27, 2018, 09:10:08 pm
      And the FFD pattern repeats. :palm:

      If you don't understand the relationship between a charger's efficiency and battery charging efficiency perhaps you're on the wrong forum. Or at least stick to the beginner's section.

      Still waiting for you to provide proof that Dave said charging has 40% losses....

      It’s in the video,

      Which video? Dave has hundreds. Please post the link.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 27, 2018, 09:30:27 pm
      And the FFD pattern repeats. :palm:

      If you don't understand the relationship between a charger's efficiency and battery charging efficiency perhaps you're on the wrong forum. Or at least stick to the beginner's section.

      Still waiting for you to provide proof that Dave said charging has 40% losses....

      It’s in the video,

      Which video? Dave has hundreds. Please post the link.

      You”ll have to keep waiting as I never posted in any of my posts Dave said that.  But then aren’t”t you the guy who said Dave is wrong?  And don’t know the difference between a battery charger and a battery?  In looking at the posts, yup that”’s you.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 27, 2018, 09:57:27 pm
      And the FFD pattern repeats. :palm:

      If you don't understand the relationship between a charger's efficiency and battery charging efficiency perhaps you're on the wrong forum. Or at least stick to the beginner's section.

      Still waiting for you to provide proof that Dave said charging has 40% losses....

      It’s in the video,

      Which video? Dave has hundreds. Please post the link.

      You”ll have to keep waiting as I never posted in any of my posts Dave said that.

        According to Dave battery packs between loses 40% of there energy to heat.  So for evert 100 kWhr that are used to charge the batteries, you only get 60 back plus a fair amount of heat.

      According to A video blog post Dave made, there is a 20% loss to heat while charging, and 20% loss while discharging.

      Now blatant lying to go along with the trolling.  ::)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on October 27, 2018, 10:02:04 pm
      I see (real world)
      15-16 kWh consumption (as reported by car)
      18 kWh from the socket on the wall (as reported by my charger)

      for 20% worse case charging loss.
      18kWh from the socket sounds like pretty solid information. 15-16kWh consumption reported by the car is more vague. Is that 15-16kWh at the wheels? Somewhere in the electronics? Out of the battery?

      Who cares?  Do you break down your ICE car consumption into how much was burned to turn the wheels vs how much was used to spin the power steering pump?

      All you care about is consumption, and mine is around 18kWh/100km, or in this part of the world, about C$1.68/100km or just over the price of 1l of gasoline.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 27, 2018, 10:43:58 pm
      All you care about is consumption, and mine is around 18kWh/100km, or in this part of the world, about C$1.68/100km or just over the price of 1l of gasoline.

      Exactly.  FWIW, I use about 10kWh/35 miles on average with my Volt.  That 10 kWh only costs me about $0.71 USD for the grid power at my locale.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 27, 2018, 10:58:56 pm
      Just the charging of a Li-ion type battery can't be 95% efficient. The typical charging efficiency of Li-ion batteries is about 90% on average (for good batteries in decent shape, that is, and can be as low as 80%) and if you add the charger's efficiency itself, which will probably be in the order of 90% at best, you're already down to 81%. Those figures sound like reasonable estimates.

      As for discharge, I'm sure it depends a lot on the battery itself and use conditions, but an average of 90% looks like a reasonsable (if even optimistic) estimate.
      All combined, you're already down to 73%.

      Then you will have losses in the power electronics circuitry and  electric motor(s).

      It wouldn't seem like an unreasonable estimate to end up at 50% to 60%, at the very best, of overall efficiency for an electric car, taken from charging power to the power delivered at the wheels.
      Charging efficiency of the batteries will greatly depend on how fast they are charged. A 3kW home EV charger charges with 0.05C at most so it should reach very high charging efficiencies. Also the electronics which drive the motor should be able to reach over 95% efficiency. The biggest question is how efficient the wall charger is. This can be anything between 75% to over 90%.

      Then again the whole charge efficiency wasn't about charging batteries in a car but a battery pack mounted on the wall which can be charged from a local source (solar panels) or mains. Once it is charged the power can be supplied back into the mains. The biggest losses I see are when mains are involved. Even very good power supplies top out at little over 90% and the rest is stuck at 85% or even less. Inverters (DC to mains) probably show similar losses. If you set the charge/discharge efficiency at 90% then the total mains - battery - mains chain efficiency sits somewhere around 65% (85% efficient AC/DC DC/AC conversion) to 76% (92% efficient AC/DC DC/AC conversion). A cleverly designed system should use the DC bus voltage from the solar panels to charge the batteries. DC-DC conversion at 98% efficiency is not overly expensive to design & built.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on October 27, 2018, 11:25:34 pm
      Just the charging of a Li-ion type battery can't be 95% efficient. The typical charging efficiency of Li-ion batteries is about 90% on average (for good batteries in decent shape, that is, and can be as low as 80%) and if you add the charger's efficiency itself, which will probably be in the order of 90% at best, you're already down to 81%. Those figures sound like reasonable estimates.

      As for discharge, I'm sure it depends a lot on the battery itself and use conditions, but an average of 90% looks like a reasonsable (if even optimistic) estimate.
      All combined, you're already down to 73%.

      Then you will have losses in the power electronics circuitry and  electric motor(s).

      It wouldn't seem like an unreasonable estimate to end up at 50% to 60%, at the very best, of overall efficiency for an electric car, taken from charging power to the power delivered at the wheels.

      This is from battery university.
      https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/bu_808c_coulombic_and_energy_efficiency_with_the_battery

      "Energy Efficiency
      While the coulombic efficiency of lithium-ion is normally better than 99 percent, the energy efficiency of the same battery has a lower number and relates to the charge and discharge C-rate. With a 20-hour charge rate of 0.05C, the energy efficiency is a high 99 percent. This drops to about 97 percent at 0.5C and decreases further at 1C. In the real world, the Tesla Roadster is said to have an energy efficiency of 86 percent. Ultra-fast charging on newer EVs will have a negative effect on energy efficiency, as well as the battery life."

      These numbers on the Tesla seem reasonable.  I design power electronic equipment and 95% for a power electronics stage is about right.  There are two stages in a EV.  If the battery is 95% for combined charge discharge that gives a total loss of .95*.95*.95=85.7% which matches the Tesla number.  This does depend on the charge rate. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 27, 2018, 11:53:24 pm
      The thing with battery efficiency has more to do its the old companies tempting to ell you battery storage units and not cr car/EV batteries.

      Interesting how everyone thinks Hydrogen powered cars will get their fuel from water.  WRONG!  Hydrogen used to power cars comes from fossil fuel, not water.

      https://youtu.be/tp4OUf1bEwM



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 28, 2018, 12:06:47 am
      The thing with battery efficiency has more to do its the old companies tempting to ell you battery storage units and not cr car/EV batteries.

      Interesting how everyone thinks Hydrogen powered cars will get their fuel from water.  WRONG!  Hydrogen used to power cars comes from fossil fuel, not water.
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now). In the end what counts is the TCO including cost & profit of the required infrastructure changes. From that perspective bio-fuels are a step ahead because these need no changes to existing infrastructure. What I see happening in the Netherlands is that reality starts to sink in: EVs won't be cheaper for the next decades and about 1 charger per every 2 cars is needed for EVs to actually work as a replacement for ICE based cars. Suddenly EVs don't look that hot anymore.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 28, 2018, 12:50:02 am
      Interesting how everyone thinks Hydrogen powered cars will get their fuel from water.  WRONG!  Hydrogen used to power cars comes from fossil fuel, not water.
      The low volumes of hydrogen fuel being created for the handful of hydrogen cars around today is being generated from methane, just as most hydrogen for industrial use has been generated for decades. For high volumes of hydrogen cars it doesn't work from the cost point of view, the energy efficiency point of view, the carbon emissions point of view, or the use of a finite resource point of view. However, nobody ever claims this is a practical long term solution. Clearly a more sustainable scheme would be needed, and they do exist. The snag nobody has overcome so far is they are all energy inefficient. However, there are multiple schemes which avoid carbon emissions and allow fully renewable energy to be used. With sufficiently low renewable energy costs the inefficiency might not be a killer.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on October 28, 2018, 09:29:04 am
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now).
      The question is what is the efficiency difference for both?
      If a fossil fuel powered electricity plant generated energy driven car is still 5 times more efficient than an ICE it still is beneficial. I would like to see those calculations.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 28, 2018, 10:19:44 am
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now).
      The question is what is the efficiency difference for both?
      If a fossil fuel powered electricity plant generated energy driven car is still 5 times more efficient than an ICE it still is beneficial. I would like to see those calculations.
      Well such energy efficiency differences are not going to happen. In the current situation the difference isn't that big already when comparing efficient ICE cars to EV / Hydrogen. And the ICE cars will be getting some serious improvements in milage given the fact that the EU laws will become more strict on how much CO2 an ICE car may emit per km. Hydrogen powered cars are in fact EVs but they use a different carrier for the energy. Basically just forget about efficiencies in these kind of discussions. In the end it is going to come down to costs for the user and ease of operation. A well known example is how the inferior VHS system won from technically better video recording systems. The cheapest & easiest to use solution likely isn't going to be the most efficient one.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on October 28, 2018, 04:58:19 pm
      The thing with battery efficiency has more to do its the old companies tempting to ell you battery storage units and not cr car/EV batteries.

      Interesting how everyone thinks Hydrogen powered cars will get their fuel from water.  WRONG!  Hydrogen used to power cars comes from fossil fuel, not water.
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now). In the end what counts is the TCO including cost & profit of the required infrastructure changes. From that perspective bio-fuels are a step ahead because these need no changes to existing infrastructure. What I see happening in the Netherlands is that reality starts to sink in: EVs won't be cheaper for the next decades and about 1 charger per every 2 cars is needed for EVs to actually work as a replacement for ICE based cars. Suddenly EVs don't look that hot anymore.

      Wow, you're such a nay-sayer. 
      1) There is probably 1 public charger per 100 EVs here in a very dense EV population.  The weird thing that makes that possible?  Most people have electricity at home.
      2) Electricity (>90%) comes from hydro electric here
      3) EV cars already pay for themselves after 50,000k in this jurisdiction (see previous calculations)


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 28, 2018, 05:24:08 pm
      The thing with battery efficiency has more to do its the old companies tempting to ell you battery storage units and not cr car/EV batteries.

      Interesting how everyone thinks Hydrogen powered cars will get their fuel from water.  WRONG!  Hydrogen used to power cars comes from fossil fuel, not water.
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now). In the end what counts is the TCO including cost & profit of the required infrastructure changes. From that perspective bio-fuels are a step ahead because these need no changes to existing infrastructure. What I see happening in the Netherlands is that reality starts to sink in: EVs won't be cheaper for the next decades and about 1 charger per every 2 cars is needed for EVs to actually work as a replacement for ICE based cars. Suddenly EVs don't look that hot anymore.

      Wow, you're such a nay-sayer. 
      1) There is probably 1 public charger per 100 EVs here in a very dense EV population.  The weird thing that makes that possible?  Most people have electricity at home.
      2) Electricity (>90%) comes from hydro electric here
      3) EV cars already pay for themselves after 50,000k in this jurisdiction (see previous calculations)
      No. Just managing expectations. You are just projecting your very special situation (where electricity is so cheap an EV is extremely cheap to run) to the rest of the world. It just doesn't work that way. For starters most people are not going to buy an expensive car hoping they will break even at some point. Changing energy prices and taxating make that a gamble.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Nauris on October 28, 2018, 05:29:22 pm
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now).
      The question is what is the efficiency difference for both?
      If a fossil fuel powered electricity plant generated energy driven car is still 5 times more efficient than an ICE it still is beneficial. I would like to see those calculations.
      Well that one is easy calculation.
      EV typical consumption is 18 kWh/100 km, coal plant typical CO2 emission is 950 g/kWh so that makes 171 g/km if you charge your EV from coal plant. Equivalent to approx 7 l/100km gasoline consumption.

      Avarage CO2 emission in Germany is 600 g/kWh so that means 110 g/km emission.
      Here it is 90 g/kWh so only 16 g/km emission, way better than gasoline car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 28, 2018, 05:43:49 pm
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now).

      Not an accurate statement - a half truth at best.  Only a portion of  it does - and worldwide that portion is shrinking. In Europe, Central and South America less than half comes from fossil fuels and in some locales (eg PNW USA) it is very little (or none).

      From 2018 BP statistical report (https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf)

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=557818;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 28, 2018, 05:57:08 pm
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now).
      Not an accurate statement - a half truth at best.  Only a portion of  it does - and worldwide that portion is shrinking. In Europe, Central and South America less than half comes from fossil fuels and in some locales (eg PNW USA) it is very little (or none).
      Nobody cares. Ask some people in your local mall how much CO2 per kWh gets emitted for their electricity. Don't be surprised if less than 1 out of 1000 actually knows it. If you are lucky some know that an EV doesn't have a tail pipe and someone on TV or internet said it is better. That is also the public which goes for the cheapest and easiest solution for transportation. Technicallities are completely uninteresting. A few may find it fascinating to plugging their cars in every day when they come home from work but mark my words: most people really don't want to deal with that kind of crap. The can charge their mobile phones in the car if they forgot to plug it in but that isn't that simple for an EV. Forgetting to plug an EV in means being to late at work next day. That can have serious financial consequences.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 28, 2018, 06:03:46 pm
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now).
      Not an accurate statement - a half truth at best.  Only a portion of  it does - and worldwide that portion is shrinking. In Europe, Central and South America less than half comes from fossil fuels and in some locales (eg PNW USA) it is very little (or none).
      Nobody cares. Ask some people in your local mall how much CO2 per kWh gets emitted for their electricity. Don't be surprised if less than 1 out of 1000 actually knows it. If you are lucky some know that an EV doesn't have a tail pipe and someone on TV or internet said it is better. That is also the public which goes for the cheapest and easiest solution for transportation. Technicallities are completely uninteresting. A few may find it fascinating to plugging their cars in every day when they come home from work but mark my words: most people really don't want to deal with that kind of crap. The can charge their mobile phones in the car if they forgot to plug it in but that isn't that simple for an EV. Forgetting to plug an EV in means being to late at work next day. That can have serious financial consequences.

      What does any of that have to do with what portion of electricity production comes from fossil fuels?  :-// -
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on October 28, 2018, 06:08:07 pm
      Renewables 25%, fossil fuels 65%, and the other 10% is nuclear. So how is that "half truth at best"?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 28, 2018, 06:10:30 pm
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now).
      Not an accurate statement - a half truth at best.  Only a portion of  it does - and worldwide that portion is shrinking. In Europe, Central and South America less than half comes from fossil fuels and in some locales (eg PNW USA) it is very little (or none).
      Nobody cares. Ask some people in your local mall how much CO2 per kWh gets emitted for their electricity. Don't be surprised if less than 1 out of 1000 actually knows it. If you are lucky some know that an EV doesn't have a tail pipe and someone on TV or internet said it is better. That is also the public which goes for the cheapest and easiest solution for transportation. Technicallities are completely uninteresting. A few may find it fascinating to plugging their cars in every day when they come home from work but mark my words: most people really don't want to deal with that kind of crap. The can charge their mobile phones in the car if they forgot to plug it in but that isn't that simple for an EV. Forgetting to plug an EV in means being to late at work next day. That can have serious financial consequences.
      What does any of that have to do with what portion of electricity production comes from fossil fuels?  :-// -
      That is my point: nobody cares!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 28, 2018, 06:15:09 pm
      Well... nobody seems to care that the electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels as well (for now).
      Not an accurate statement - a half truth at best.  Only a portion of  it does - and worldwide that portion is shrinking. In Europe, Central and South America less than half comes from fossil fuels and in some locales (eg PNW USA) it is very little (or none).
      Nobody cares. Ask some people in your local mall how much CO2 per kWh gets emitted for their electricity. Don't be surprised if less than 1 out of 1000 actually knows it. If you are lucky some know that an EV doesn't have a tail pipe and someone on TV or internet said it is better. That is also the public which goes for the cheapest and easiest solution for transportation. Technicallities are completely uninteresting. A few may find it fascinating to plugging their cars in every day when they come home from work but mark my words: most people really don't want to deal with that kind of crap. The can charge their mobile phones in the car if they forgot to plug it in but that isn't that simple for an EV. Forgetting to plug an EV in means being to late at work next day. That can have serious financial consequences.
      What does any of that have to do with what portion of electricity production comes from fossil fuels?  :-// -
      That is my point: nobody cares!

      But you're the one who brought it up!!!

      You: Electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels.

      Me: That's an innaccurate statement. Here are the facts.

      You: Nobody cares!  Ooh - look butterflies..

       :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on October 28, 2018, 07:48:15 pm
      One big difference is that individuals can easily increase their % of electricity from renewable sources by installing their own wind and solar, up to 100% if they want to. Making your own biofuel at home is a bit more involved!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 28, 2018, 09:50:19 pm
      One big difference is that individuals can easily increase their % of electricity from renewable sources by installing their own wind and solar, up to 100% if they want to.
      That is a totally false assumption. You need space to install solar panels or a wind turbine.

      @mtdoc: just look at what people do if they have a choice: they vote for someone who doesn't give a sh*t about the environment. As long as their cars run cheap today everything is well.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on October 29, 2018, 01:59:11 am
      That is a totally false assumption. You need space to install solar panels or a wind turbine.
      You'll be surprised how many do have the space.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on October 29, 2018, 07:05:35 am
      You'll be surprised how many do have the space.

      Many do, many many more, don't. And in any case, when the sun shines is when you aren't at home, and when you need the power more, the sun isn't shining. More or less.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on October 29, 2018, 11:07:25 am
      That is a totally false assumption. You need space to install solar panels or a wind turbine.
      You'll be surprised how many do have the space.
      Looks like you two have a culture clash:
      The rural states in the US people have probably all the space.
      The Netherlands is one of the most populated countries in persons/m2 so people have about the same space as americans living in the heart of NYC?
      In an appartment complex of 20 stories with 200 families you only have one roof to put some solarpanels on  ;)  ;D

      Since the trend is that people are going to live in cities, I agree with nctnico that this can become an issue. In future cities probably people have to share personal transportation devices or "rent" them on demand.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on October 29, 2018, 12:56:51 pm
      In really dense cities like NYC, a car isn't even a good way of transportation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on October 29, 2018, 01:02:53 pm
      In future cities probably people have to share personal transportation devices or "rent" them on demand.
      In future cities peons might have to decide to start building guillotines then. Because fuck that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on October 29, 2018, 06:15:37 pm
      That is a totally false assumption. You need space to install solar panels or a wind turbine.
      You'll be surprised how many do have the space.

      Apparently a lot of the Dutch do have the space to install some sort of electric charging infrastructure, as the percentage of PHEV vehicles sold in the  NL (vs the total market) is one of the highest in the world.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on October 29, 2018, 08:15:30 pm
      That is a totally false assumption. You need space to install solar panels or a wind turbine.
      You'll be surprised how many do have the space.

      Apparently a lot of the Dutch do have the space to install some sort of electric charging infrastructure, as the percentage of PHEV vehicles sold in the  NL (vs the total market) is one of the highest in the world.
      I've seen a lot of kerbside charging points in Amsterdam. I understand most people charge with these, rather than a charger they own.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 29, 2018, 09:05:20 pm
      That is a totally false assumption. You need space to install solar panels or a wind turbine.
      You'll be surprised how many do have the space.
      Apparently a lot of the Dutch do have the space to install some sort of electric charging infrastructure, as the percentage of PHEV vehicles sold in the  NL (vs the total market) is one of the highest in the world.
      That is only due to a tax loop hole which has been closed. Many of the PHEV cars which where sold where the Mitsubishi Outlander (a big SUV) which has an electric range of around 25km (less than an electric motor cycle!). These tax reductions for PHEVs have been terminated since 2016 so sales have plummeted by 90%. People wheren't buying these cars to drive electric but just to get a cheap company car. In the Netherlands there is a system where part of a company car's price is added to your income before taxes. The amount is a percentage of the purchase price of the car and the percentage depends on how environmentally friendly the car is. Once the government figured out nobody is charging their PHEVs they put the PHEVs in the normal bracket. Currently there are 2 brackets. One with 4% for zero emission cars (like pure EV and Hydrogen) and 22% for the rest. The 22% basically means you pay 10% of the new price of the car each year from your own pocket.

      The most recent modification of this system is that the 4% bracket only applies to the first 50k euro of the price of an EV. So if your EV costs 80k euro you'll get (80k-50k) * 0.22=30k*0.22=6.6k added to your income and pay about 3k euro in taxes each year. This new rule doesn't apply to cars running on Hydrogen.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 29, 2018, 09:10:00 pm
      That is a totally false assumption. You need space to install solar panels or a wind turbine.
      You'll be surprised how many do have the space.
      Looks like you two have a culture clash:
      The rural states in the US people have probably all the space.
      And not just that. Putting solar panels on your roof means you are left with a dark attic. Putting windows in the roof (especially facing south) turns a dark attic in an extra room with lots of light. That is a very good investment or a cheap way to get extra space in your home!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on October 29, 2018, 10:57:40 pm
      Totally offtopic trolling.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on October 29, 2018, 11:46:10 pm
      That is a totally false assumption. You need space to install solar panels or a wind turbine.
      You'll be surprised how many do have the space.
      Looks like you two have a culture clash:
      The rural states in the US people have probably all the space.
      And not just that. Putting solar panels on your roof means you are left with a dark attic. Putting windows in the roof (especially facing south) turns a dark attic in an extra room with lots of light. That is a very good investment or a cheap way to get extra space in your home!

      In Oz, attics (like cellars) are "as rare as hen's teeth".
      Most houses are mostly single storey, with wide expanses of roof area.
      That, plus ample sunlight means solar arrays on roofs are a common feature of suburban homes in this country.

      On a different tack, in remote areas, locally sourced renewables are often a better bet than running many kilometres of grid network to service mainly kangaroos & wombats. ;D

      All good, but it means that high current recharging stations will be hard to provide at wayside "roadhouses".
      These often have their own set of solar arrays (normally on the ground), backed up with a diesel generator.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on October 30, 2018, 01:35:11 am
      And not just that. Putting solar panels on your roof means you are left with a dark attic. Putting windows in the roof (especially facing south) turns a dark attic in an extra room with lots of light. That is a very good investment or a cheap way to get extra space in your home!
      Not sure where you are but attics tend to get hot enough without windows. With windows, you'll basically be building a greenhouse that would be too hot to be of much use for a good part of a year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on October 30, 2018, 03:23:12 am
      And not just that. Putting solar panels on your roof means you are left with a dark attic. Putting windows in the roof (especially facing south) turns a dark attic in an extra room with lots of light. That is a very good investment or a cheap way to get extra space in your home!
      Not sure where you are but attics tend to get hot enough without windows. With windows, you'll basically be building a greenhouse that would be too hot to be of much use for a good part of a year.

      I second that. Or maybe extra space for growing some... plants? ;D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on October 30, 2018, 03:37:31 am
      And not just that. Putting solar panels on your roof means you are left with a dark attic. Putting windows in the roof (especially facing south) turns a dark attic in an extra room with lots of light. That is a very good investment or a cheap way to get extra space in your home!
      Not sure where you are but attics tend to get hot enough without windows. With windows, you'll basically be building a greenhouse that would be too hot to be of much use for a good part of a year.

      Yeah, it's a ridiculous and illogical assertion.   Only a fool would put roof windows (we call them skylights in the US) on an attic roof. Any inhabitable attic will have vertical walls for windows. The roof is perfect for PV.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 30, 2018, 09:59:57 am
      And not just that. Putting solar panels on your roof means you are left with a dark attic. Putting windows in the roof (especially facing south) turns a dark attic in an extra room with lots of light. That is a very good investment or a cheap way to get extra space in your home!
      Not sure where you are but attics tend to get hot enough without windows. With windows, you'll basically be building a greenhouse that would be too hot to be of much use for a good part of a year.
      Insulation and aircondition do wonders. Besides that you can open the windows and let the wind do the job of cooling the attic down. You can try and argue otherwise but my office is an excellent example of turning an attic (from a typical home you see a lot in the Netherlands) into a big extra room. Putting solar panels on the roof would take that away again. Besides the extra space the extra room easely adds 20k euro to the value of the home.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on October 30, 2018, 01:17:36 pm
      Sunlight is up to 1kW per square meter or so and I'd imagine an attic space worth using would have several square meters of roof area. The idea of letting in several kW of heat and light into a relatively small space is ridiculous, so realistically you would use only part of the area for a window and the rest can be used for solar panels. The solar panels would help cool the attic by shielding the roof from the sun.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 30, 2018, 01:55:37 pm
      Sunlight is up to 1kW per square meter or so and I'd imagine an attic space worth using would have several square meters of roof area. The idea of letting in several kW of heat and light into a relatively small space is ridiculous, so realistically you would use only part of the area for a window and the rest can be used for solar panels. The solar panels would help cool the attic by shielding the roof from the sun.
      So your home doesn't have windows at all then? The same goes for any room with windows. On a sunny day you put a sun screen on the outside. Is that so hard to come up with?  :palm:

      Anyway a roof with windows is less ideal to put solar panels on. The size of the panels will have to match with the available space like large tiles. I already went through all these scenarios and it becomes a complicated jig-saw puzzle quickly.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 30, 2018, 03:31:38 pm
      And not just that. Putting solar panels on your roof means you are left with a dark attic. Putting windows in the roof (especially facing south) turns a dark attic in an extra room with lots of light. That is a very good investment or a cheap way to get extra space in your home!

      You are selfishingly thinking local, and not global.  Turning an attic space in New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, California and many other states into an living space would cost a fortune in electricty to keep cool enough for a human during the summer.  Temperatures can get in the 130-150 degree  (55-60j in the summer.  Probably use all of the electricity the solar panels produce in a year to keep the thing cool in the summer.

      And the what about folks who have houses in the northern states where their freezers are far warmer than their attica are in the winter.  Look not saying you have a bad idea, it’s just what works where you are may not work for others.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 30, 2018, 04:39:55 pm
      The drawback of installing solar panels at schools.    Many schools in California have installed solar panels in the parking lots of schools.  Sounds great doesn’t.  Millions were spent to install the panels. 

      First thing I noticed is how hot it gets when one is standing under the panels.  I suspect the panels trap the radiant heat and prevent convection currents from carrying the heat energy away.  It’s surprising how hot it is under the panels.

      The the other thing is the kids have done to the panels.  After six month after being installed there the kids have thrown all kids of stuff onto them.  Tennis shoes, books, lunches, shoes, books and more shoes.  It’s almost like it has turned into a game to see how far towards the center of the panels the kids can throw books and shoes.

      Zsad how we as tax payers spend millions to install solar panels at our schools and the kids decrease the output by throwing stuff on them. 

         
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on October 30, 2018, 04:55:59 pm
      The drawback of installing solar panels at schools.    Many schools in California have installed solar panels in the parking lots of schools.  Sounds great doesn’t.  Millions were spent to install the panels. 

      First thing I noticed is how hot it gets when one is standing under the panels.  I suspect the panels trap the radiant heat and prevent convection currents from carrying the heat energy away.  It’s surprising how hot it is under the panels.

      The the other thing is the kids have done to the panels.  After six month after being installed there the kids have thrown all kids of stuff onto them.  Tennis shoes, books, lunches, shoes, books and more shoes.  It’s almost like it has turned into a game to see how far towards the center of the panels the kids can throw books and shoes.

      Zsad how we as tax payers spend millions to install solar panels at our schools and the kids decrease the output by throwing stuff on them. 

       

      Looks like this is another example of how everything in solar is site specific.  My grandkids are in Arizona and the solar panels are in two places, over a portion of the playground and over the visitors parking lot.  In both places the shade is welcome and makes things much cooler.  The school is at the crest of a ridge so a breeze may clear out the heat trapping effects you mention.  I have seen no evidence of the "stuff" on the panels.  Either kids behavior is different (not better, just different venues for their kid stuff), or the maintenance staff is more pro-active.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: glarsson on October 30, 2018, 06:00:06 pm
      Anyway a roof with windows is less ideal to put solar panels on. The size of the panels will have to match with the available space like large tiles. I already went through all these scenarios and it becomes a complicated jig-saw puzzle quickly.
      Compared to solar panels on the road surface the roof mounted solar panels are a match made in heaven.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on October 30, 2018, 06:10:11 pm
      Quote from: nctnico
      Anyway a roof with windows is less ideal to put solar panels on. The size of the panels will have to match with the available space like large tiles. I already went through all these scenarios and it becomes a complicated jig-saw puzzle quickly.
      Compared to solar panels on the road surface the roof mounted solar panels are a match made in heaven.
      Fixed the quotes for you. But no, the financials may not work out so well after all. Blindly putting solar panels on your roof without thinking about a future utilisation of the space under the roof may be a mistake. It seems some never even considered this. I like to watch home improvement programmes to get new ideas for my own home improvement projects. In one from the US they re-did various attics to create more living space but they never seemed to have the idea of putting windows in the roofs and thus making the room much more useful beyond a dark man-cave.

      Another thought: if you have a large roof you are likely to have a large piece of land as well. It might be more benificial to install the solar panels on the ground so they can be setup at the perfect angle to maximise efficiency. Or create a shaded area to sit under (but that might require building permits).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on October 30, 2018, 06:57:41 pm
      Quote from: nctnico
      Anyway a roof with windows is less ideal to put solar panels on. The size of the panels will have to match with the available space like large tiles. I already went through all these scenarios and it becomes a complicated jig-saw puzzle quickly.
      Compared to solar panels on the road surface the roof mounted solar panels are a match made in heaven.
      Fixed the quotes for you. But no, the financials may not work out so well after all. Blindly putting solar panels on your roof without thinking about a future utilisation of the space under the roof may be a mistake. It seems some never even considered this. I like to watch home improvement programmes to get new ideas for my own home improvement projects. In one from the US they re-did various attics to create more living space but they never seemed to have the idea of putting windows in the roofs and thus making the room much more useful beyond a dark man-cave.

      Another thought: if you have a large roof you are likely to have a large piece of land as well. It might be more benificial to install the solar panels on the ground so they can be setup at the perfect angle to maximise efficiency. Or create a shaded area to sit under (but that might require building permits).

      With most of our worlds population living in cities people just don’t have the land for ground mounted systems.  Not sure how it is in other parts of the world, but here in California seems like everyone is selling solar in order to get rich quick. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: glarsson on October 30, 2018, 07:40:22 pm
      Another thought: if you have a large roof you are likely to have a large piece of land as well.
      Not here. Too close to the city. For us it's the roof or nothing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: tszaboo on October 31, 2018, 03:09:10 pm
      With most of our worlds population living in cities people just don’t have the land for ground mounted systems.  Not sure how it is in other parts of the world, but here in California seems like everyone is selling solar in order to get rich quick.
      Not even close.
      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Fullneed.jpg/340px-Fullneed.jpg)

      "The red squares represent the area that would be enough for solar power plants to produce a quantity of electricity consumed (as or 2005) by the world, the European Union (EU-25) and Germany (De). (Data provided by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), 2005). To replace all energy consumption (not just electricity), areas about 5 times as large would suffice."
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 01, 2018, 02:50:46 am
      With most of our worlds population living in cities people just don’t have the land for ground mounted systems.  Not sure how it is in other parts of the world, but here in California seems like everyone is selling solar in order to get rich quick.
      Not even close.
      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Fullneed.jpg/340px-Fullneed.jpg)

      "The red squares represent the area that would be enough for solar power plants to produce a quantity of electricity consumed (as or 2005) by the world, the European Union (EU-25) and Germany (De). (Data provided by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), 2005). To replace all energy consumption (not just electricity), areas about 5 times as large would suffice."

      Get real.  You do understand of all o the energy from those areas would be used to power the world those areas would be in total darkness, nothing could live there and temperature would have to be at absolute zero.  Is that someplace you would want to live?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on November 01, 2018, 03:10:42 am
      "The red squares represent the area that would be enough for solar power plants to produce a quantity of electricity consumed (as or 2005) by the world, the European Union (EU-25) and Germany (De). (Data provided by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), 2005). To replace all energy consumption (not just electricity), areas about 5 times as large would suffice."

      Maybe if we had made Morocco part of the EU from the start that would have been somewhat of an option (with gas plants as backup, maybe with some coal gasification plants as a partial backup for the backup). As it stands though Africa is not something Europe can reasonably depend upon.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 01, 2018, 05:53:05 am
      Since at least one person here seems unable to grasp the concept that utilizing only a small portion of the solar insolation falling in the Earth’s surface could produce all the worlds electricity needs (even assuming only 8% efficient PV!) here’s a physicist doing a good job explaining the math in a way that even the technically challenged should be able to understand (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/12/wind-fights-solar/).

      The map below gives another graphic presentation. The black dots represent the surface area needed. An no, FFD, it does not mean darkness or cold temperatures at those locales  :palm:

      (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Solar_land_area.png)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 01, 2018, 06:44:01 am
      "The red squares represent the area that would be enough for solar power plants to produce a quantity of electricity consumed (as or 2005) by the world, the European Union (EU-25) and Germany (De). (Data provided by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), 2005). To replace all energy consumption (not just electricity), areas about 5 times as large would suffice."

      Maybe if we had made Morocco part of the EU from the start that would have been somewhat of an option (with gas plants as backup, maybe with some coal gasification plants as a partial backup for the backup). As it stands though Africa is not something Europe can reasonably depend upon.
      Exactly. The political implications alone would be very problematic. See what happens with the regions where they produce most of the oil. And then there are also the challenges of building the installation, protecting and maintaining it. A desert isn't very hospitable and the Sahara isn't a flat piece of sand. There are also people living there which may not like having to give up 'their' land. And I didn't mention the batteries yet to power the world when it is dark and the wiring needed to distribute the electricity. It might be an option if you want to pay like $5 per kWh.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 01, 2018, 07:16:41 am
      Since at least one person here seems unable to grasp the concept that utilizing only a small portion of the solar insolation falling in the Earth’s surface could produce all the worlds electricity needs (even assuming only 8% efficient PV!) here’s a physicist doing a good job explaining the math in a way that even the technically challenged should be able to understand (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/12/wind-fights-solar/).

      The map below gives another graphic presentation. The black dots represent the surface area needed. An no, FFD, it does not mean darkness or cold temperatures at those locales  :palm:

      (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Solar_land_area.png)

      Please expain why there would not be total darkness/. Doesn’t the legions for the graph indicates all of the sums enegy at the black dots is being converted to electrical enegy?  Sure looks that way to me.

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: tszaboo on November 01, 2018, 08:59:01 am
      Get real.  You do understand of all o the energy from those areas would be used to power the world those areas would be in total darkness, nothing could live there and temperature would have to be at absolute zero.  Is that someplace you would want to live?
      Sure, because solar panels suck out the light from the air, just like in Ghostbusters. Where did you get your physics education?

      Imagine your country spending money on solar installations, instead of the millitary, to invade for oil.
      With the yearly budget of US millitary (590Billion USD) you could install about 590GW capacity, enough to power for about a 100 million people. In 4 years you would have went to renewable energy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on November 01, 2018, 01:18:33 pm
      While playing large regions with solar cells does not reduce them to frigid temperatures, taking roughly ten percent of the thermal energy arriving in one zone and transporting it elsewhere could very well have undesirable consequences.  Just about everything else we have done when scaled up to industrial level has proved to have unpredicted gothchas.  Is probably better than petroleum but it is naive to believe that it is perfect.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 01, 2018, 01:20:19 pm
      Get real.  You do understand of all o the energy from those areas would be used to power the world those areas would be in total darkness, nothing could live there and temperature would have to be at absolute zero.  Is that someplace you would want to live?
      Sure, because solar panels suck out the light from the air, just like in Ghostbusters. Where did you get your physics education?

      Imagine your country spending money on solar installations, instead of the millitary, to invade for oil.
      With the yearly budget of US millitary (590Billion USD) you could install about 590GW capacity, enough to power for about a 100 million people. In 4 years you would have went to renewable energy.

      Isn’t that how solar panels work?  Have you take a basic high school physics class?  Where do you think the energy to produce electricity from the solar panels is comming from.  What about suggesting putting wind turbines on every car to produce electricity.  When the car drives down the road the wind turbine will spin to provide power to the car.  Or even better would be gravitty powered cars.  Build every car on top of a hill so the power of gravity will power the car.  All are good suggestions, until put into practice.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 01, 2018, 01:21:51 pm
      Remember the future when self-driving cars would be common?

      https://youtu.be/j5RYRwHKqRs

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 01, 2018, 01:50:08 pm
      Remember the future when self-driving cars would be common?
      Volkswagen aims at starting the sell self-driving cars in 2022 according to an article I read last week.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 01, 2018, 02:09:54 pm
      Remember the future when self-driving cars would be common?
      Volkswagen aims at starting the sell self-driving cars in 2022 according to an article I read last week.

      That’s only 40 years after Britain said they would have selfdriving cars. 
      And would anytone trust what VW has to say?  Have they ever lied about anything in the past?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: tszaboo on November 01, 2018, 02:12:17 pm
      Isn’t that how solar panels work?  Have you take a basic high school physics class?  Where do you think the energy to produce electricity from the solar panels is comming from.  What about suggesting putting wind turbines on every car to produce electricity.  When the car drives down the road the wind turbine will spin to provide power to the car.  Or even better would be gravitty powered cars.  Build every car on top of a hill so the power of gravity will power the car.  All are good suggestions, until put into practice.
      OK, discussion closed, welcome to my ignore list.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 01, 2018, 02:43:33 pm
      While playing large regions with solar cells does not reduce them to frigid temperatures, taking roughly ten percent of the thermal energy arriving in one zone and transporting it elsewhere could very well have undesirable consequences.  Just about everything else we have done when scaled up to industrial level has proved to have unpredicted gothchas.  Is probably better than petroleum but it is naive to believe that it is perfect.
      I don't think it matters. The amount of energy the sun blasts onto the earth and the energy that is radiated into space is huge compared to the amount of energy being used. The image with the red rectangle does make that very clear.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on November 01, 2018, 04:29:22 pm
      While playing large regions with solar cells does not reduce them to frigid temperatures, taking roughly ten percent of the thermal energy arriving in one zone and transporting it elsewhere could very well have undesirable consequences.  Just about everything else we have done when scaled up to industrial level has proved to have unpredicted gothchas.  Is probably better than petroleum but it is naive to believe that it is perfect.
      I don't think it matters. The amount of energy the sun blasts onto the earth and the energy that is radiated into space is huge compared to the amount of energy being used. The image with the red rectangle does make that very clear.

      Tiny differences do matter.  Just for fun, look at the total transmission of heat to space with 270 parts per million CO2 and compare it to the total transmission with 400 ppm.  Spoiler alert, it is not any where close to the ratio of 270 to 400.  Bring your decimal points, you will need a lot of them.  But that is what global warming is about.  The fact that there are so many decimals involved is why there is so much argument about it, and why it took so long and so much effort to figure it out.  Whether moving a few hundred gigawatts from Africa to Europe matters isn't completely clear one way or the other. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on November 01, 2018, 05:42:59 pm
      Just a quick thought. Solar panels are NOT the only way of extracting energy from the sun's radiated energy, and not even the most effective one, at least for now. It's a shame we focus almost exclusively on that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on November 01, 2018, 05:46:33 pm
      While playing large regions with solar cells does not reduce them to frigid temperatures, taking roughly ten percent of the thermal energy arriving in one zone and transporting it elsewhere could very well have undesirable consequences.  Just about everything else we have done when scaled up to industrial level has proved to have unpredicted gothchas.  Is probably better than petroleum but it is naive to believe that it is perfect.
      I don't think it matters. The amount of energy the sun blasts onto the earth and the energy that is radiated into space is huge compared to the amount of energy being used. The image with the red rectangle does make that very clear.
      So, you're OK with tornadoes? I wonder what other violent weather you'd get taking 10% of all the incident energy on a fairly large area, causing huge temperature differentials around its borders?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 01, 2018, 05:57:45 pm
      While playing large regions with solar cells does not reduce them to frigid temperatures, taking roughly ten percent of the thermal energy arriving in one zone and transporting it elsewhere could very well have undesirable consequences.  Just about everything else we have done when scaled up to industrial level has proved to have unpredicted gothchas.  Is probably better than petroleum but it is naive to believe that it is perfect.
      I don't think it matters. The amount of energy the sun blasts onto the earth and the energy that is radiated into space is huge compared to the amount of energy being used. The image with the red rectangle does make that very clear.
      So, you're OK with tornadoes? I wonder what other violent weather you'd get taking 10% of all the incident energy on a fairly large area, causing huge temperature differentials around its borders?
      The amount of land in the biggest red rectangle in Nandblog's image is about 50,000 quare kilometers. The desert the square is in is 9,200,000 sq km so compared to the desert alone the size of the biggest red square is less than 0.5%. And you don't have to concentrate the entire installation in one place.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on November 01, 2018, 06:57:50 pm
      The density of power removal can be made low as you point out.  The density at the receiving end is also low.  But the fact remains, you are moving hundreds of gigawatts from one continent to another.  We have always discovered the impact of large scale engineering efforts after the fact because they are not obvious.  Who knew that trading horse for something else could be hard on the earth, or that killing the pests in our houses with DDT would kill birds that didn't even eat bugs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 01, 2018, 07:10:22 pm
      1) I'm shocked that some here actually think the graphic posted my Nandblog or the one I posted are actually meant to suggest that such single (or multiple in the graphic I posted) very large PV arrays would need to be built.  They are graphic representations meant to demonstrate the very small amount of surface area needed to generate enough electricity with PV to satisfy society's need.

      2) The reality is that multiple smaller PV plants would be built that in sum would equal the necessary surface area.

      3) Contrary to what FFD and others here suggest,  research shows that large PV installations cause localized warming, not cooling. (https://www.nature.com/articles/srep35070)  AKA the "heat island effect".   

      4) There is no free lunch. There of course will be some localized negative effects of large solar PV installations.  But any intelligent, mature human being will realize that as with all things you must evaluate benefits versus risks.

      Does anyone here seriously think that the potential adverse effects from the heat island effect of solar PV installations could be worse than the downsides of other options for electricity generation?  Where is this magic source of electricity generation that has no downsides?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on November 01, 2018, 07:21:25 pm
      1) I'm shocked that some here actually think the graphic posted my Nandblog or the one I posted are actually meant to suggest that such single (or multiple in the graphic I posted) very large PV arrays would need to be built.  They are graphic representations meant to demonstrate the very small amount of surface area needed to generate enough electricity with PV to satisfy society's need.
      Why are you shocked? Concentrating a massive amount of generation in a relatively small area of the Sahara Desert has been proposed multiple times since the solar panel industry first got into gear. Some people have been very serious about it. Others have been highly sceptical about the politics, the transmission losses, and the potential changes to the local environment.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 01, 2018, 07:38:46 pm
      The density of power removal can be made low as you point out.  The density at the receiving end is also low.  But the fact remains, you are moving hundreds of gigawatts from one continent to another.  We have always discovered the impact of large scale engineering efforts after the fact because they are not obvious.  Who knew that trading horse for something else could be hard on the earth, or that killing the pests in our houses with DDT would kill birds that didn't even eat bugs.
      Well doing nothing is usually worse. In the end humanity is always chasing its own tail (cause and effect) but if the end result is better than it was it is a win. DDT for example did improve the quality of life for many.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 02, 2018, 12:20:44 am
      Since at least one person here seems unable to grasp the concept that utilizing only a small portion of the solar insolation falling in the Earth’s surface could produce all the worlds electricity needs (even assuming only 8% efficient PV!) here’s a physicist doing a good job explaining the math in a way that even the technically challenged should be able to understand (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/12/wind-fights-solar/).

      The map below gives another graphic presentation. The black dots represent the surface area needed. An no, FFD, it does not mean darkness or cold temperatures at those locales  :palm:

      (https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Solar_land_area.png)

      The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 02, 2018, 12:38:07 am
      The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem.

      Yep.  Very true.  That's why I think small distributed systems, PV or otherwise is the way to go. And I mean very small and very distributed - town/village level. Sure in areas where there is less solar insolation - more PV would be needed (or other, complimentary means of generation hydro, wind, etc).  Since relatively little land area is needed for PV and PV is cheap -it's not difficult to do. It just takes political will.  Of course in the end we will have to use less energy per capita overall - no doubt about that.

      Smaller ,distributed power generation and lower energy consumption will also provide more resilience. Unlike our current fragile electricity grid, it would be Antifragile (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antifragile).

      Unfortunately, I doubt there will ever be the political will to do these things - more likely we'll continue on the road to catabolic collapse...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on November 02, 2018, 12:55:32 am
      The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem.
      If you can deal with the getting it where you want it issue, the battery problem mostly evaporates. Generation plant spread around the world's deserts would certainly defeat the darkness issue, and it seems like it ought to be possible to beat bad weather issues, too. Then you are left with issues of redundancy. They might be tough to deal with.  :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 02, 2018, 02:09:24 am
      The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem.
      If you can deal with the getting it where you want it issue, the battery problem mostly evaporates. Generation plant spread around the world's deserts would certainly defeat the darkness issue, and it seems like it ought to be possible to beat bad weather issues, too. Then you are left with issues of redundancy. They might be tough to deal with.  :)
      So you plan to run power lines across oceans and power North America?

      Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on November 02, 2018, 03:05:50 am
      The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem.
      If you can deal with the getting it where you want it issue, the battery problem mostly evaporates. Generation plant spread around the world's deserts would certainly defeat the darkness issue, and it seems like it ought to be possible to beat bad weather issues, too. Then you are left with issues of redundancy. They might be tough to deal with.  :)
      So you plan to run power lines across oceans and power North America?
      I just plan to sit back and pontificate.  ;)

      If you can transmit power from the black dots on the map to every centre of population in the world, the additional problems of transmitting power around the world, so the lit side is always supplying our needs, should be trivial. The question is whether you can build a practical transmission scheme for the scale and distances required. Seems like quite a challenge.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 02, 2018, 09:29:29 am
      The density of power removal can be made low as you point out.  The density at the receiving end is also low.  But the fact remains, you are moving hundreds of gigawatts from one continent to another.  We have always discovered the impact of large scale engineering efforts after the fact because they are not obvious.  Who knew that trading horse for something else could be hard on the earth, or that killing the pests in our houses with DDT would kill birds that didn't even eat bugs.
      Well doing nothing is usually worse. In the end humanity is always chasing its own tail (cause and effect) but if the end result is better than it was it is a win. DDT for example did improve the quality of life for many.

      Story of DDT is an interesting one.   Malaria is estimated to have killed half of the worlds’s population.  Thanks to DDT is was eliminated ob all continents with the exception of Africa/. Why was DDT not used to eliminate Milaria in Africa?  It wold have been but politics and environmentalism got in the way.  I suspect you have DDT to thank for being alive today.

      Appears the debate of a large solar farm in Africa is just a modern day discussion of DDT, politics vs. environmentalism.

      An issue no one has mentioned so for is how much aluminum, steel and concrete it would take to build such an array.  Estimates I have seen are on the order of it would take all of the aluminum and steel ever mined and all of the concreate ever poured since Roman times.  Forget the thechnology for a moment,we just don’t have the building materials for such a project/. And add to that for the amount of concreate needed for such a project would release billions of tons of CO2 into our atmosphere as the concreate cures.  Are we installing solar to slow climate change?  What you folks are talking about will accelerate it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 02, 2018, 10:39:02 am
      The problem is getting it to where it's needed and when it's needed.  There is a big battery problem.
      If you can deal with the getting it where you want it issue, the battery problem mostly evaporates. Generation plant spread around the world's deserts would certainly defeat the darkness issue, and it seems like it ought to be possible to beat bad weather issues, too. Then you are left with issues of redundancy. They might be tough to deal with.  :)
      I think you are seriously under estimating the costs and losses of such an electricity grid. Current electricity grid are mostly designed for load sharing between nearby power plants. A good hint to you should be the fact that most power plants are spread across countries and near the largest portion of the load.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 03, 2018, 09:06:24 pm
      More on topic of EVs. The accident from this thread https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/) with an electric motor cycle -ish vehicle got me thinking about a serious failure mode of EVs which (AFAIK) is not being addressed by current regulations. The problem is that there is no way to disconnect the motor from the wheels in an EV. So when you get into a engine runaway situation (as might have happened in the accident I described in the thread I linked to) there is no way to stop the car. Engine runaway situations can happen to ICE cars (google diesel runaway for example) but in an ICE based car you can simply disengage the engine by pressing the clutch or by putting the gearbox in neutral. Sure the ICE engine will be toast after such an event but you are not driving down the road at insane speeds while being unable to stop the car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 03, 2018, 10:15:09 pm
      More on topic of EVs. The accident from this thread https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/) with an electric motor cycle -ish vehicle got me thinking about a serious failure mode of EVs which (AFAIK) is not being addressed by current regulations. The problem is that there is no way to disconnect the motor from the wheels in an EV. So when you get into a engine runaway situation (as might have happened in the accident I described in the thread I linked to) there is no way to stop the car. Engine runaway situations can happen to ICE cars (google diesel runaway for example) but in an ICE based car you can simply disengage the engine by pressing the clutch or by putting the gearbox in neutral. Sure the ICE engine will be toast after such an event but you are not driving down the road at insane speeds while being unable to stop the car.
      Disengage a contactor?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 03, 2018, 10:32:18 pm
      More on topic of EVs. The accident from this thread https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/) with an electric motor cycle -ish vehicle got me thinking about a serious failure mode of EVs which (AFAIK) is not being addressed by current regulations. The problem is that there is no way to disconnect the motor from the wheels in an EV. So when you get into a engine runaway situation (as might have happened in the accident I described in the thread I linked to) there is no way to stop the car. Engine runaway situations can happen to ICE cars (google diesel runaway for example) but in an ICE based car you can simply disengage the engine by pressing the clutch or by putting the gearbox in neutral. Sure the ICE engine will be toast after such an event but you are not driving down the road at insane speeds while being unable to stop the car.
      Disengage a contactor?
      Which one and according to which regulations will this be installed and tested for functioning properly / safely? High voltage DC contactors are expensive and bulky so car manufacturers are not going to install these if they don't have to.

      The thing is that any ICE based vehicle has some way to disengage/shut down the engine even though there is no regulation to have it installed. It is inherent to the design. With EVs this seems not to be the case due to absence of any regulations on this matter.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 03, 2018, 10:34:35 pm
      More on topic of EVs. The accident from this thread https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/ (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/how-an-emc-problem-can-kill-people-and-a-company/) with an electric motor cycle -ish vehicle got me thinking about a serious failure mode of EVs which (AFAIK) is not being addressed by current regulations. The problem is that there is no way to disconnect the motor from the wheels in an EV. So when you get into a engine runaway situation (as might have happened in the accident I described in the thread I linked to) there is no way to stop the car. Engine runaway situations can happen to ICE cars (google diesel runaway for example) but in an ICE based car you can simply disengage the engine by pressing the clutch or by putting the gearbox in neutral. Sure the ICE engine will be toast after such an event but you are not driving down the road at insane speeds while being unable to stop the car.
      Disengage a contactor?

      Police would like a disengage contactor.  Would put an end to police chases.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on November 03, 2018, 10:43:09 pm
      Quote
      Disengage a contactor?
      Which one and according to which regulations will this be installed and tested for functioning properly / safely? High voltage DC contactors are expensive and bulky so car manufacturors are not going to install these if they don't have to.

      The thing is that any ICE based vehicle has some way to disengage/shut down the engine even though there is no regulation to have it installed. It is inherent to the design. With EVs this seems not to be the case due to absence of any regulations on this matter.
      Accidents are far more common than runaway engines, and EV makers aren't taking accident related power disconnect issues very seriously. Teslas seem to have a couple of "hack through the cables here" points for firemen to disconnect the power in an emergency, but they don't seem to have taken them very seriously. The labelling isn't good, and there is weak information on the car about what the emergency services need to do with those disconnect points. The Prius has been around a long time, and I think is the most mature family of cars with high voltage high current systems on board. How well do they handle high voltage isolation in an emergency.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 03, 2018, 10:49:07 pm
      Run away car syndrome applies to both ICEs and EVs

      The accident you are describing is a repeat of the one that happened with Toyota.  Can’t remember if it was the driver or passenger but one was a California Highway patrol officer.  He was on the phone with Highway Patrol dispatch saying the car he was in was out of control.  The accelerator was stuck and there was nothing they could do.  They could not turn the car off as it was a push button car.  They gear shift leaver was locked in drive and could not be disengaged.  The brakes could not slow the car down.  The Highway patrol officer was telling the dispatcher everting they were tying to do to stop the car as the car just kept in accelerating.  I think the car finally got up to around 120 mph when they lost control of the car and the Highway patrol officer and the companion in the car drove off the road and were killed.

      This incident lead to the Toyota recall about 10 year ago.  Remember Toyota said it was loose the floor mat that caused the accelerator pedal to get stuck.  But in reality wasn’t it faulty software?

      Please correct any inaccuracies in my story.







      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 03, 2018, 11:06:30 pm
      It seems odd to me the transmission could not be put into neutral but then again it may depend on how it is implemented. It would be interesting to know what Toyota fixed to avoid the situation where such an event leads the vehicle to become totally uncontrollable.

      BTW an incident like this would be an excellent moment for an American to pull out the good old gun and shoot the engine. With some luck you puncture the oil pan or coolant system and get the engine to seize up due to lack of cooling. Bonus points for hitting the timing belt.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 03, 2018, 11:44:08 pm
      It seems odd to me the transmission could not be put into neutral but then again it may depend on how it is implemented. It would be interesting to know what Toyota fixed to avoid the situation where such an event leads the vehicle to become totally uncontrollable.

      BTW an incident like this would be an excellent moment for an American to pull out the good old gun and shoot the engine. With some luck you puncture the oil pan or coolant system and get the engine to seize up due to lack of cooling. Bonus points for hitting the timing belt.
      Shoot the battery.  :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 04, 2018, 12:41:43 am
      It seems odd to me the transmission could not be put into neutral but then again it may depend on how it is implemented. It would be interesting to know what Toyota fixed to avoid the situation where such an event leads the vehicle to become totally uncontrollable.

      BTW an incident like this would be an excellent moment for an American to pull out the good old gun and shoot the engine. With some luck you puncture the oil pan or coolant system and get the engine to seize up due to lack of cooling. Bonus points for hitting the timing belt.

      Toyota’s initial safety recall was to tell customers to remove the floor mats.  I think they latter had a software update.

      I thought is ‘was strange too they shifter could not by moved to neutral.  But the Highway Patroll officers in the car on the phone said it could not be done before he died.  I really hope someone can provide more info.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 04, 2018, 12:49:12 am
      Found this.  Not the full story....  but it’s something.
      https://youtu.be/u53oRzkRIbY
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Bud on November 04, 2018, 02:52:51 am
      It seems odd to me the transmission could not be put into neutral but then again it may depend on how it is implemented.

      It is odd... I do not know about new cars but on earlier cars there was a opening in the gear stick compartment where you can insert a screwdriver and push to unlock the stuck gear stick. What else may make sense is shift  to the lowest gear and switch off the Overdrive button to reduce the car speed , and turn the air conditioner on to put additional load on the engine which also may help drop speed a bit more.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on November 04, 2018, 05:26:34 am
      What you could do, and what you will do in a panic situation are very different things.  And even the same person can react very differently in different exposures.  It is very hard to tell what might have been a real mechanical failure and what was some driver interaction.

      As a young man, driving the old beater car that a young man can afford, I had the accelerator pedal come off while in freeway traffic.  I calmly reached down and put it together by feel while steering with the other hand and peering over the dashboard as well as I could.  Much later in life a toy got stuck under the accelerator and I couldn't force myself to take the risk of reaching down there with the attendant loss of awareness and control. 

      People do silly things under panic.  My wife rescued a woman in a parking lot who became trapped in her car when the batteries on the remote on her keyring failed just after locking the doors on herself.  She was so panicky she didn't even think of the electric switches on the inside of the door or the mechanical switches in the same location.  She wasn't really that stupid, but the brain does funny things when it heads down a wrong initial logic path.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 04, 2018, 02:13:48 pm
      What you could do, and what you will do in a panic situation are very different things.  And even the same person can react very differently in different exposures.  It is very hard to tell what might have been a real mechanical failure and what was some driver interaction.

      As a young man, driving the old beater car that a young man can afford, I had the accelerator pedal come off while in freeway traffic.  I calmly reached down and put it together by feel while steering with the other hand and peering over the dashboard as well as I could.  Much later in life a toy got stuck under the accelerator and I couldn't force myself to take the risk of reaching down there with the attendant loss of awareness and control. 

      People do silly things under panic.  My wife rescued a woman in a parking lot who became trapped in her car when the batteries on the remote on her keyring failed just after locking the doors on herself.  She was so panicky she didn't even think of the electric switches on the inside of the door or the mechanical switches in the same location.  She wasn't really that stupid, but the brain does funny things when it heads down a wrong initial logic path.

      Exactly - Now imagine a stuck accelerator and the trying to do some of those maneuvers at 100 mph?

      And how many time had people mixed up the accelerator pedal with the brake?  Or an older driver is backing out of a parking space and mows down a bunch of people after mistaking D for the letter R.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 05, 2018, 09:11:16 pm
      Which one and according to which regulations will this be installed and tested for functioning properly / safely? High voltage DC contactors are expensive and bulky so car manufacturers are not going to install these if they don't have to.
      You really need to look at some teardown video's and talk to people designing such cars ... instead of spouting FUD ...

      There IS a HV contactor in the batteyr pack. It will be shot open under certain conditions. It is an explosive charge to guarantee the thing opening and potential arcs/sticky contacts being extinguished and remediated. It has its own redundant backup , even if the local 12 volt system fails and there is a catastrophic short on the high voltage bus and the pack is somehow damaged : the contactors chemical charge WILL still fire fromt he embedded supercap in the contactor.

      Just like you have a mechanical clutch in a mechanical engine you have an 'enable' pin to the inverter driving the propulsion motor. set the enable to low ( by clicking the stalk on the steering wheel in neutral ) and the motor goes in coast. This is a hard-wired , not software controlled gating on the power mosfets. Even in case of a cut control wire the system ios designed to fail-safe. ( meaning motor switched to coast ).

      I have the impression that you think that these newfangled electric cars are designed by a bunch of muppets ...

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 05, 2018, 09:19:15 pm
      Which one and according to which regulations will this be installed and tested for functioning properly / safely? High voltage DC contactors are expensive and bulky so car manufacturers are not going to install these if they don't have to.
      This is a hard-wired , not software controlled gating on the power mosfets. Even in case of a cut control wire the system ios designed to fail-safe. ( meaning motor switched to coast ).

      I have the impression that you think that these newfangled electric cars are designed by a bunch of muppets ...
      Some appearantly are so I'm wondering which safety regulations apply to disengaging the motor in an EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 05, 2018, 10:41:35 pm
      Which one and according to which regulations will this be installed and tested for functioning properly / safely? High voltage DC contactors are expensive and bulky so car manufacturers are not going to install these if they don't have to.
      You really need to look at some teardown video's and talk to people designing such cars ... instead of spouting FUD ...

      There IS a HV contactor in the batteyr pack. It will be shot open under certain conditions. It is an explosive charge to guarantee the thing opening and potential arcs/sticky contacts being extinguished and remediated. It has its own redundant backup , even if the local 12 volt system fails and there is a catastrophic short on the high voltage bus and the pack is somehow damaged : the contactors chemical charge WILL still fire fromt he embedded supercap in the contactor.

      Just like you have a mechanical clutch in a mechanical engine you have an 'enable' pin to the inverter driving the propulsion motor. set the enable to low ( by clicking the stalk on the steering wheel in neutral ) and the motor goes in coast. This is a hard-wired , not software controlled gating on the power mosfets. Even in case of a cut control wire the system ios designed to fail-safe. ( meaning motor switched to coast ).

      I have the impression that you think that these newfangled electric cars are designed by a bunch of muppets ...
      This probably could have been said without the attack mode.  But I think it sounds correct to me. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nfmax on November 06, 2018, 02:10:09 pm
      And how many time had people mixed up the accelerator pedal with the brake?  Or an older driver is backing out of a parking space and mows down a bunch of people after mistaking D for the letter R.

      ...which is why you should always reverse into a parking bay, and move out of it forwards.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on November 06, 2018, 03:04:24 pm
      A recent software update to my model S added a feature to help prevent that.
           If the car senses objects in front and someone mashes the gas instead of the brake, the acceleration is greatly limited. Prevent the crashing through a store window effect.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 06, 2018, 03:22:21 pm
      Teslas seem to have a couple of "hack through the cables here" points for firemen to disconnect the power in an emergency, but they don't seem to have taken them very seriously. The labelling isn't good, and there is weak information on the car about what the emergency services need to do with those disconnect points. The Prius has been around a long time, and I think is the most mature family of cars with high voltage high current systems on board. How well do they handle high voltage isolation in an emergency.
      Ever seen the firemen training video and documentation ? afaik Tesla is the only company to have such video and docs...
      Loops are clearly labeled with bright orange labels. Pop a piece of plastic , snip-snip and you are safe. The contactors are open.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntK3rvVl2Qw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntK3rvVl2Qw)
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFWCM6iJR_w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFWCM6iJR_w)
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAiGyOTNzFE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAiGyOTNzFE)
      https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/first_responders/2016_Models_S_Emergency_Responders_Guide_en.pdf (https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/first_responders/2016_Models_S_Emergency_Responders_Guide_en.pdf)

      first two videos were shot in the factory .
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 06, 2018, 04:15:53 pm
      Free electrobn nice explanation.  Le me share with you the disadvantage of the design.  Mt wife was involved in a minor accident on the freeway in a Chevy Volt in late afternoon.  Airbags deployed and if what you are saying is correct the explosive charge disconnected the high voltage/drive train batteries.  No one was hurt.  The ICE car involved in the accident was damaged, but could be restarted and driven to the side of the freeway.  Her car could “start”, could be shifted into gear and wound not move.  There was no indication the drive train batteries were not disengaged.  Traffic on the freeway retuned to normal freeway speed with her disabled car in one of the middle lanes.  Batteries were fully charged so it could be moved.  All she could do is abandon the car and leave the emergency flashers on.  Highway patrol and towruck were on the way.  Just before it was completely dark, the 12v battery died which now left a dark disabled car in a lane of traffic.  This was an accident waiting to happen.  Luckily it’s didn’t.

      While I understand the need to  disconnect the HV batteries in probably most accidents, there are times when this might not be the ideal solution. 

      Do you know about the design of the Toyota where the California Highway Patrol Officer was killed with the stuck accelerator pedaL. Any idea why he could not shift the car into neutral or power the car off?  As a recall he was on the phone with the emergency operator saying he could not do either.  Seems crazy, but sounds like that was Toyta’s design.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on November 06, 2018, 04:36:57 pm
      Teslas seem to have a couple of "hack through the cables here" points for firemen to disconnect the power in an emergency, but they don't seem to have taken them very seriously. The labelling isn't good, and there is weak information on the car about what the emergency services need to do with those disconnect points. The Prius has been around a long time, and I think is the most mature family of cars with high voltage high current systems on board. How well do they handle high voltage isolation in an emergency.
      Ever seen the firemen training video and documentation ? afaik Tesla is the only company to have such video and docs...
      Loops are clearly labeled with bright orange labels. Pop a piece of plastic , snip-snip and you are safe. The contactors are open.
      The existence of those videos shows there is a problem. As electric cars progress in the market do you really expect every emergency services worker in the world to have studied and remembered every car maker's video about how to make their cars safe, and be conversant with the procedure when the time comes, even for a model they rarely encounter?

      If you look at review videos of Tesla cars, when they look at these accident related issues, the reviewers never seem too clear what the services people are supposed to do. It doesn't seem like these things are labelled all that well in practice.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on November 07, 2018, 04:52:02 am
      When the Prius came out years ago, like windbag cables, important wires were colored, and way back then EMTs were at least meducated about high voltages.

      I had my Tesla S a year when they came to fix a body shop repair in my driveway. I had always noticed right off when new, opening the froot (frunk in USA), a bright orange tag, like tags on airplanes to be paid attention to before takeoff.

      While the car was torn apart, it looked like the relatively small gauge wires were to be cut there.

      Internal to the battery is a major contractor I can here click, but also a pyrotechnic fuse.

      I don't have the ludicrous mode, but I understand it lets you abuse  the battery for a short time where it would normally blow. I think a disclaimer to battery life involved. So a computerized fuse.
          A normal fuse has lots of problems in fast blow, overload time, and especially aging to engineer into a product.

      So you have a muscle car, how much can you run it to its limit? Hopefully for enough chicks before you marry and need more seats.
      Near Maine? I'll give you a ride and dare you not to buy a real EV soon.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on November 07, 2018, 01:57:06 pm
      And how many time had people mixed up the accelerator pedal with the brake?  Or an older driver is backing out of a parking space and mows down a bunch of people after mistaking D for the letter R.

      ...which is why you should always reverse into a parking bay, and move out of it forwards.

      Sorry, but that is one of my pet hates!

      It wastes time, irritates everybody else who is trying to use the carpark, & is likely to cause "young drivers" to do antisocial things.
      Us "older drivers" just sit there & grind our teeth! ;D

      But then, UK drivers always do strange things, like parking on the "wrong side " of the road (facing oncoming traffic).
      They come to Australia, forget where they are, do that, & get a ticket!

      As far as mixing up things, I must admit I once did that with a Renault R25 "T bar" automatic which I had only owned for a day.
      The scale under the "T bar" was different to all the others I had driven, in that all the positions were squashed up at one end.
      The R25 tried to go forward, but I always apply the brake before I select reverse "just in case".
      Idling engine versus four wheel disc brakes?-----no contest!

      But mixing the brake & accelerator pedals? That is something only a very inexperienced driver would do.
      Even if we lost half our marbles, us "old farts" have "body memory" -- the pedals are like a body extension.

      What did happen quite a bit was with people changing from a manual to an auto car, back in the days when manufacturers liked to put a huge brake pedal on their automatics, to allow drivers to use "left foot braking".

      You would see someone indicate a turn then come to a screeching halt.

      Normal procedure with a "stick shift" when I learnt, was to change down a gear before turning, so the driver would press what felt like the clutch, while putting their hand down to where the gear stick
      should be.----SCREEECH!!!!

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 07, 2018, 02:08:46 pm
      Chevy Volt ...
      Toyota ...
      no comment. i don't know how those things are built . they may use different or similar. i don't know.
      All i know is that my cars ( mine (x) and my wife's (s) ) have a HV contactor and pyrotechnic fuse. Something goes wrong : clip the cable.
      In extreme situations it deactivates itself ( pyrotechnics)

      Firemen go through regular training and EV's is one of them. As more and more of these cars hit the road they need to keep up too. Times change... Actually they don;t ... the first cars were always electrics ... until some guy figured out how to get repeat sales of some sticky goo he found in his backyard ...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: drussell on November 07, 2018, 02:36:11 pm
      ...which is why you should always reverse into a parking bay, and move out of it forwards.

      Sorry, but that is one of my pet hates!

      It wastes time, irritates everybody else who is trying to use the carpark, & is likely to cause "young drivers" to do antisocial things.
      Us "older drivers" just sit there & grind our teeth! ;D

      You have to either back into a parking stall or you have to back out.

      Please explain how other drivers backing into a stall is more problematic for you than them backing out...   :-//
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on November 07, 2018, 11:30:00 pm
      ...which is why you should always reverse into a parking bay, and move out of it forwards.

      Sorry, but that is one of my pet hates!

      It wastes time, irritates everybody else who is trying to use the carpark, & is likely to cause "young drivers" to do antisocial things.
      Us "older drivers" just sit there & grind our teeth! ;D

      You have to either back into a parking stall or you have to back out.

      Please explain how other drivers backing into a stall is more problematic for you than them backing out...   :-//

      Simple, several cars are driving around in a parking area looking for a stall.
      Normally, the front one sees a spot, & drives into it, whilst the others drive on to the next spot, where the process is repeated.

      Now the other scenario, several cars are driving around in a parking area looking for a stall.
      The first driver sees a spot, then drives past, & reverses into it.

      The drivers following cannot see the stall, so assume the car will continue.
      Suddenly, they are confronted by (almost always) a ginormous SUV or "people mover" reversing at them.

      The driver usually stuffs it up on the first attempt, & takes several "goes" at it, before getting into the stall.

      Reversing out?
      The driver checks before reversing, & doesn't back up when there are cars approaching.(often, if there is one, it will stop & allow the reversing car out, in the hope of taking the stall just vacated.
      The main lane around the car park is wider than a car space, so the manoeuvre is easier than backing into a narrow stall.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 08, 2018, 08:40:32 pm
      Chevy Volt ...
      Toyota ...
      no comment. i don't know how those things are built . they may use different or similar. i don't know.
      And that is where the problem is: are these systems mandatory or not? How about regulations where the driver has to be able to shut the engine down?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ez24 on November 08, 2018, 09:17:28 pm
      Run away car syndrome applies to both ICEs and EVs

      The accident you are describing is a repeat of the one that happened with Toyota.  Can’t remember if it was the driver or passenger but one was a California Highway patrol officer.  He was on the phone with Highway Patrol dispatch saying the car he was in was out of control.  The accelerator was stuck and there was nothing they could do.  They could not turn the car off as it was a push button car.  They gear shift leaver was locked in drive and could not be disengaged.  The brakes could not slow the car down.  The Highway patrol officer was telling the dispatcher everting they were tying to do to stop the car as the car just kept in accelerating.  I think the car finally got up to around 120 mph when they lost control of the car and the Highway patrol officer and the companion in the car drove off the road and were killed.

      This incident lead to the Toyota recall about 10 year ago.  Remember Toyota said it was loose the floor mat that caused the accelerator pedal to get stuck.  But in reality wasn’t it faulty software?

      Please correct any inaccuracies in my story.

      I live near the place of the accident.  The freeway the HP driver dead-ended at the bottom of a hill and he drove straight into a river bed (trees).  I believe three or four were killed.  Before this happened the same thing happened to me in my Tacoma.  Without thinking I reached down and pulled up the floor mat. I felt the accelerator pedal sticking down.  I removed the mat and never gave it another thought.  If the driver had pushed the button for several seconds (3 ?), the motor would have turned off, or pull up the accelerator, or taken another freeway (Hwy 8 )   FYI he was driving a loaner car while his was being serviced.  I think it was a Lexus.

      I see the biggest failure is not telling drivers how to turn off the engine in an emergency.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nfmax on November 08, 2018, 09:26:31 pm
      ...which is why you should always reverse into a parking bay, and move out of it forwards.

      Sorry, but that is one of my pet hates!

      It wastes time, irritates everybody else who is trying to use the carpark, & is likely to cause "young drivers" to do antisocial things.
      Us "older drivers" just sit there & grind our teeth! ;D

      You have to either back into a parking stall or you have to back out.

      Please explain how other drivers backing into a stall is more problematic for you than them backing out...   :-//

      Simple, several cars are driving around in a parking area looking for a stall.
      Normally, the front one sees a spot, & drives into it, whilst the others drive on to the next spot, where the process is repeated.

      Now the other scenario, several cars are driving around in a parking area looking for a stall.
      The first driver sees a spot, then drives past, & reverses into it.

      The drivers following cannot see the stall, so assume the car will continue.
      Suddenly, they are confronted by (almost always) a ginormous SUV or "people mover" reversing at them.

      The driver usually stuffs it up on the first attempt, & takes several "goes" at it, before getting into the stall.

      Reversing out?
      The driver checks before reversing, & doesn't back up when there are cars approaching.(often, if there is one, it will stop & allow the reversing car out, in the hope of taking the stall just vacated.
      The main lane around the car park is wider than a car space, so the manoeuvre is easier than backing into a narrow stall.
      Car parks are inevitably a mix of people driving cars and people walking to & from them. It is much more dangerous to hit a pedestrian than to hit another car. The problem with the backing out is that the first move a car makes is in reverse, and rear visibility is worse than forward. Not only is there a risk of the driver not seeing the pedestrian, the pedestrian is less likely to see the driver and realise the car is about to move.

      This is one of the (very few) cases where 24-hour running lights actually improve safety, as they give a hint the car may be about to move. Using indicators (turn or hazard) also helps.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Red Squirrel on November 08, 2018, 09:31:47 pm
      I always back into a space.  I hate backing OUT of a space.  Too hard to see if cars are coming and if the car has been parked for a while the windows will be full of snow/frost etc.  Yeah you should take it off but impossible to get it super clear so visibility is always going to be poor.   When backing in, any residual snow/frost etc will hopefully have melted by the time you get there from wherever you drove from.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on November 08, 2018, 09:41:52 pm
      A problem with backing into spaces is the back of the car is then against a wall or another car, and you can't get the stuff you are carrying in and out of the back of the car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 09, 2018, 03:12:24 pm
      Chevy Volt ...
      Toyota ...
      no comment. i don't know how those things are built . they may use different or similar. i don't know.
      And that is where the problem is: are these systems mandatory or not? How about regulations where the driver has to be able to shut the engine down?
      I don't think the clutch in a ICE is regulated as a safety feature.. what with automatic cars ? Most shifters these days are electric. ( paddle flaps)
      What about cars that use electric-start-stop. ( they even stop the motor at red lights and restart when you go ... )  ?

      Are those systems regulated ?
      i don't know , maybe they are ... Maybe it's up to the car manufacturer ?

      There will be interlocks int he system to prevent stuff from happening.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 09, 2018, 03:19:13 pm
      ...which is why you should always reverse into a parking bay, and move out of it forwards.

      in ,many places that is illegal ! you need to park nose-in.

      two reasons :
      - scanning of license plates. Only the REAR license plate is the true plate holding the expiration sticker and / or certificate tag. The front one doesn't. Many places don't require a front one.
      - emergency towing. Handbrakes work only on rear wheels. if a car needs to be moved : lift its rear wheels of the ground and roll it out. If a car is parked in reverse this becomes a problem.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 09, 2018, 05:17:42 pm
      Well, in the case of EV parking spots, I always back in, because my charging port is at the rear.

      Wait a minute, I pretty much always back in anyway.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: IanMacdonald on November 09, 2018, 10:40:15 pm
      Please explain how other drivers backing into a stall is more problematic for you than them backing out...   :-//

      Because if it's a van or hatchback you can't unload it. 

      Of course an 'executive' would never think of that. They assume the only things you need to take out of a vehicle are your Rolex and your Armani briefcase. :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 10, 2018, 01:04:13 am
      In some cities such as Washington DC one must back into a space, it's the law.  Other states you pull straight in.  If I'm not mistaken bank robbers always back into parking spaces.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 10, 2018, 04:23:02 pm
      ...which is why you should always reverse into a parking bay, and move out of it forwards.

      in ,many places that is illegal ! you need to park nose-in.

      two reasons :
      - scanning of license plates. Only the REAR license plate is the true plate holding the expiration sticker and / or certificate tag. The front one doesn't. Many places don't require a front one.
      - emergency towing. Handbrakes work only on rear wheels. if a car needs to be moved : lift its rear wheels of the ground and roll it out. If a car is parked in reverse this becomes a problem.
      In the mountains of southern California they like people to back in.  That's because if there is a wild fire and a bunch of people leave at the same time it's easier to pull forward then to back into a stream of cars. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 10, 2018, 07:28:41 pm
      Could somebody please elaborate on the matter of backing into a parking space vs. pulling in straight ahead? Eight consecutive posts about this existential question are really only scratching the surface... Any anecdotes, case studies, personal experience please?

       :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on November 10, 2018, 08:18:22 pm
      Could somebody please elaborate on the matter of backing into a parking space vs. pulling in straight ahead? Eight consecutive posts about this existential question are really only scratching the surface... Any anecdotes, case studies, personal experience please?

       :palm:
      Sounds like someone backed out of the bed the wrong way this morning.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 10, 2018, 08:32:07 pm
      Could somebody please elaborate on the matter of backing into a parking space vs. pulling in straight ahead? Eight consecutive posts about this existential question are really only scratching the surface... Any anecdotes, case studies, personal experience please?

       :palm:
      Why do some people drive on the left side of the road and others drive on the right.  Isn't in the politicians who decide?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 10, 2018, 08:35:18 pm
      Sounds like someone backed out of the bed the wrong way this morning.

      Which, I'm told, is illegal in California and several other jurisdictions.  :P
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on November 11, 2018, 05:46:28 am
      I'd like a thread about Tesla cars, good and bad, I have a Tesla S with questions like putting in a ham radio at 1500 watts, and servicing the shocks, brakes, preventing rust etc. I use Fluid Film to prevent rust on my Honda Element
      It will park itself backwards, much quickly than a bluehair (Teslas, not Elements).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on November 11, 2018, 06:34:23 am
      Sounds like someone backed out of the bed the wrong way this morning.

      Which, I'm told, is illegal in California and several other jurisdictions.  :P

      No! It's known to cause cancer. ;D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 11, 2018, 04:05:28 pm
      Sounds like someone backed out of the bed the wrong way this morning.

      Which, I'm told, is illegal in California and several other jurisdictions.  :P

      No! It's known to cause cancer. ;D

      Note true in California, we do tt forwards and backwards and sometimes we even do it sideways.  In San Francisco however, sometimes we do it with motorcycles, bikes, and hoverboards.  But never with horses.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 11, 2018, 06:27:32 pm
      I'd like a thread about Tesla cars, good and bad, I have a Tesla S with questions like putting in a ham radio at 1500 watts, and servicing the shocks, brakes, preventing rust etc. I use    to prevent rust on my Honda Element
      It will park itself backwards, much quickly than a bluehair.

      There's an 'electric car experiences' which hopefully gets away from the silly stuff in this thread.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on November 12, 2018, 01:05:25 am
      Could somebody please elaborate on the matter of backing into a parking space vs. pulling in straight ahead? Eight consecutive posts about this existential question are really only scratching the surface... Any anecdotes, case studies, personal experience please?

       :palm:
      I've worked with a couple volunteer fireman.  They always back in and also out of habit put it in park, shutoff the ignition, unbuckle, tilt the wheel up and open the door all at the same time faster than I can even reach for the seatbelt buckle.  Its part of their training, if they get paged they need to go fast and pulling out is faster than backing out.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 12, 2018, 03:32:49 am
      Problem with backing in is the exhaust, carbon monoxide fumes are right at someone’s door or windows.  It’s like driving on the left or right, it’s more of a custom or law than engineering thing.

      I will say I think pilling head in and backing out is far safer than backing in and pulling out.  If you were to back in you have less visibility and more of a chance to hitting someone or something.  When you back out you have the other drivers facing forward with a clear view that can either avoid you or see what it is you are about to run over.  I feel very uncomfortable when I have to back into a space.  You just cah’t see very well especially on the passenger side of the car.  Always worried I might hit a little kid or the car next to me when backing in.

      I drove emergenccey vechicles too.  And yes we always backed in, but or partner had to get out of the vehicles and make sure we weren’t about to hit something. 

      Hope this helps. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 12, 2018, 04:05:33 am
      Problem with backing in is the exhaust, carbon monoxide fumes are right at someone’s door or windows.  It’s like driving on the left or right, it’s more of a custom or law than engineering thing.

      I will say I think pilling head in and backing out is far safer than backing in and pulling out.  If you were to back in you have less visibility and more of a chance to hitting someone or something.  When you back out you have the other drivers facing forward with a clear view that can either avoid you or see what it is you are about to run over.  I feel very uncomfortable when I have to back into a space.  You just cah’t see very well especially on the passenger side of the car.  Always worried I might hit a little kid or the car next to me when backing in.

      I drove emergenccey vechicles too.  And yes we always backed in, but or partner had to get out of the vehicles and make sure we weren’t about to hit something. 

      Hope this helps.
      I would agree except if you have a back up camera.  Then it's much easier.  I love my backup camera.  (It's an electric camera so it's relevant to this thread.  :)  )
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 12, 2018, 04:17:05 am
      True, but a back-up camera only offers limited visibility.  Not the same as someone actually being there.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 12, 2018, 09:41:22 pm
      True, but a back-up camera only offers limited visibility.  Not the same as someone actually being there.
      You get to turn your head also.  Works fine for me.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 13, 2018, 03:57:25 am
      True, but a back-up camera only offers limited visibility.  Not the same as someone actually being there.
      You get to turn your head also.  Works fine for me.
      I

      Head turning might work if your a driving a car....  Buy not when you are driving a big honking emergaency vehcicale.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on November 13, 2018, 04:06:22 am
      True, but a back-up camera only offers limited visibility.  Not the same as someone actually being there.
      You get to turn your head also.  Works fine for me.
      I

      Head turning might work if your a driving a car....  Buy not when you are driving a big honking emergency vehicle.

      Which just emphasizes the point that there isn't one correct answer for this.  Those who need to make a quick exit (bank robbers, first responders, people in danger from fire, tidal waves and so on) will definitely want to back in.  In spite of the hazard that many cars have more overhang in back and any curb or bumpstop may not prevent damage, and in spite of presenting fumes to those behind and in spite of the extra hazard of backing in.  People with other priority requirements will make the other choice.  Both will be right for their situation.

      Those driving a big unwieldy vehicle will back differently than those driving a motorcycle  (who'd of thunk it?).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on November 13, 2018, 04:53:23 am
      True, but a back-up camera only offers limited visibility.  Not the same as someone actually being there.
      You get to turn your head also.  Works fine for me.
      I

      Head turning might work if your a driving a car....  Buy not when you are driving a big honking emergency vehicle.

      Which just emphasizes the point that there isn't one correct answer for this.  Those who need to make a quick exit (bank robbers, first responders, people in danger from fire, tidal waves and so on) will definitely want to back in.  In spite of the hazard that many cars have more overhang in back and any curb or bumpstop may not prevent damage, and in spite of presenting fumes to those behind and in spite of the extra hazard of backing in.  People with other priority requirements will make the other choice.  Both will be right for their situation.

      Those driving a big unwieldy vehicle will back differently than those driving a motorcycle  (who'd of thunk it?).

      Yes, some old Harley Davidsons intended for use with a sidecar do have reverse gears.
      The first time I saw one reverse, I thought I was seeing things.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: tszaboo on November 13, 2018, 10:57:44 am
      https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/ (https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/)

      "VW understands that, and aims to take the wind out of Tesla’s sails (and sales) by offering its entry-level EV for less than €20,000 ($23,000)"

      "The company has already broken ground on an electric-car factory in China and secured a battery source for 50 million cars, Diess told Automotive News in an interview published Nov. 12. “I think we have the best setup strategy for the electric vehicles to come,” Diess said."

      20K EUR is the price of a golf, about half the price of an e-golf. So expect price to drop significantly. As I predicted.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 13, 2018, 11:23:52 am
      https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/ (https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/)

      "VW understands that, and aims to take the wind out of Tesla’s sails (and sales) by offering its entry-level EV for less than €20,000 ($23,000)"

      "The company has already broken ground on an electric-car factory in China and secured a battery source for 50 million cars, Diess told Automotive News in an interview published Nov. 12. “I think we have the best setup strategy for the electric vehicles to come,” Diess said."

      20K EUR is the price of a golf, about half the price of an e-golf. So expect price to drop significantly. As I predicted.
      For as long as the price doesn't actually drop your prediction is just a prediction. Note that VWs current EV the e-Golf has a very small battery pack. Since the biggest cost of an EV is the battery pack it is only logical that it is cheaper. But a small battery pack also seriously limits the range. Especially when driving on the highway.

      All VW is doing is window dressing because of Dieselgate. Ask yourself: Why is that factory in China and not in Europe? I think I know the answer: China is banking heavily on electric cars even though a large portion of the electricity comes from fossil fuels(*). The Chinese seems to be wanting to master electric car technology for export. Then ask yourself why is VW willing to give that technology to the Chinese? Everyone knows that the Chinese will undercut western companies as soon as the can (see Rigol and Keysight as an example). Perhaps VW sees a different future in which electric cars aren't important for the world market at all but at the moment some money can be made and their image can be repaired. VW spends less money on the factories in China than Dieselgate has cost them so far.

      * With an average CO2 emission of over 600grams per kWh (in China) even an efficient short range EV like the e-Golf produces over 100 grams of CO2 per km.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on November 13, 2018, 12:57:38 pm
      https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/ (https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/)

      "VW understands that, and aims to take the wind out of Tesla’s sails (and sales) by offering its entry-level EV for less than €20,000 ($23,000)"

      "The company has already broken ground on an electric-car factory in China and secured a battery source for 50 million cars, Diess told Automotive News in an interview published Nov. 12. “I think we have the best setup strategy for the electric vehicles to come,” Diess said."

      20K EUR is the price of a golf, about half the price of an e-golf. So expect price to drop significantly. As I predicted.

      We do not need more VW's on the roads, please just go bankrupt already
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 13, 2018, 03:24:05 pm
      At the time of Dieselgate it was revealed the president of VW said he wated VW to dominate the world.  (I think he meant in car sales).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: tszaboo on November 13, 2018, 04:42:19 pm
      https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/ (https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/)

      "VW understands that, and aims to take the wind out of Tesla’s sails (and sales) by offering its entry-level EV for less than €20,000 ($23,000)"

      "The company has already broken ground on an electric-car factory in China and secured a battery source for 50 million cars, Diess told Automotive News in an interview published Nov. 12. “I think we have the best setup strategy for the electric vehicles to come,” Diess said."

      20K EUR is the price of a golf, about half the price of an e-golf. So expect price to drop significantly. As I predicted.
      For as long as the price doesn't actually drop your prediction is just a prediction. Note that VWs current EV the e-Golf has a very small battery pack. Since the biggest cost of an EV is the battery pack it is only logical that it is cheaper. But a small battery pack also seriously limits the range. Especially when driving on the highway.

      All VW is doing is window dressing because of Dieselgate. Ask yourself: Why is that factory in China and not in Europe? I think I know the answer: China is banking heavily on electric cars even though a large portion of the electricity comes from fossil fuels(*). The Chinese seems to be wanting to master electric car technology for export. Then ask yourself why is VW willing to give that technology to the Chinese? Everyone knows that the Chinese will undercut western companies as soon as the can (see Rigol and Keysight as an example). Perhaps VW sees a different future in which electric cars aren't important for the world market at all but at the moment some money can be made and their image can be repaired. VW spends less money on the factories in China than Dieselgate has cost them so far.

      * With an average CO2 emission of over 600grams per kWh (in China) even an efficient short range EV like the e-Golf produces over 100 grams of CO2 per km.
      Actually, the cars are going to be assembled in Germany, and the battery plant is in Hungary.
      https://insideevs.com/sk-innovation-began-construction-of-7-5-gwh-battery-plant-in-hungary/ (https://insideevs.com/sk-innovation-began-construction-of-7-5-gwh-battery-plant-in-hungary/)
      BYD is now the second largest electric car manufacturer after Tesla and 10% of all sales must be electric in china. So they are a large market now, but that is going to change very soon.
      But it doesnt really matter if the Chinese get very good at making electric cars. They will still be 20 years behind in safety, just like the american cars will lack good taste and refinement. Look at export statistics. Slovakia exported twice as many cars as china. Nobody is interested in them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 13, 2018, 05:07:22 pm
      Times, technology and people's minds change over time.  Past performance is no indication of the future.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 13, 2018, 05:23:39 pm
      So after watching this why would one not want to buy a Tesla?

      https://youtu.be/gM_x5DKAfzk

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 13, 2018, 05:40:26 pm
      So after watching this why would one not want to buy a Tesla?

      Because the guy is not entirely impartial, but tries to make money from the referral link right below the video?
      (If you view the video via his Youtube page.)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 13, 2018, 05:54:22 pm
      So after watching this why would one not want to buy a Tesla?

      Because the guy is not entirely impartial, but tries to make money from the referral link right below the video?
      (If you view the video via his Youtube page.)
      //
      And just how much money, if any, do you think this guy is making from his referral link? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 13, 2018, 06:10:42 pm
      And just how much money, if any, do you think this guy is making from his referral link?

      Apparently he hopes that it will be enough to justify being viewed as an "influencer", rather than an impartial producer of videos.

      Obviously I don't know how many referrals he actually gets; and Tesla apparently has changed the rules of the referral program occasionally. Until a few weeks ago, five referrals apparently got you a $5900 PowerWall. Or you can opt for $250 cash for each referral.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/06/massive-expansion-of-tesla-referral-program-offers-100-supercharging-to-all-tesla-buyers-innovative-prizes/
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 13, 2018, 06:29:00 pm
      And just how much money, if any, do you think this guy is making from his referral link?

      Apparently he hopes that it will be enough to justify being viewed as an "influencer", rather than an impartial producer of videos.

      Obviously I don't know how many referrals he actually gets; and Tesla apparently has changed the rules of the referral program occasionally. Until a few weeks ago, five referrals apparently got you a $5900 PowerWall. Or you can opt for $250 cash for each referral.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/06/massive-expansion-of-tesla-referral-program-offers-100-supercharging-to-all-tesla-buyers-innovative-prizes/

      Look at the post date, few days ago,  and the date he has to get five people to signup.  (Less than a month.). So the guy MAYBE gets $250 what’s your problem with that?

      More imprortantly is there anything he stated in the video that’s false, misleading or incorrect?     
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 13, 2018, 07:01:18 pm
      Leaving things out is also misleading. Not telling something important is just as bad as lying.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 13, 2018, 07:09:43 pm
      Look at the post date, few days ago,  and the date he has to get five people to signup.  (Less than a month.). So the guy MAYBE gets $250 what’s your problem with that?

      It's really not so difficult to understand. He has created and posted that video as a vehicle to generate referrals. It does not matter how much he actually makes, and I don't care at all. I just point out that his stated views are probably not entirely impartial.

      Feel free to order a Tesla, by the way, if it meets your needs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Neilm on November 13, 2018, 08:48:16 pm
      https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/ (https://qz.com/1460673/volkswagen-will-make-50-million-electric-cars/)

      "VW understands that, and aims to take the wind out of Tesla’s sails (and sales) by offering its entry-level EV for less than €20,000 ($23,000)"


      At the moment, an EV battery pack costs a lot of money. None are at the $100 / kWh that is predicted to be required to make cars cheap. Tesla are thought to be at that level for the cells, but not the whole assembled pack. I have seen guesstamates that put other manufacturers at nearer $170  to $200 / kWh on the assembled pack.

      If VW are going to produce a reasonable range electric car it will need a reasonable sized pack - lets guess 65 kWh (similar to the Nero, Kona, Tesla Model 3 and new Leaf). If they somehow manage to jump straight in and get $100 / kWh that would be $6k for the battery, leaving $16.5k for the rest of the car. That is easily doable. However, if the battery costs are $170 / kWh that would put the pack at over $11k - almost half the cost of the car.

      I do hope that VW do what they say - really I do. The thing to note was the announcement had no timescales - and the only number I have seen quoted from it was the car price. Add to that in the last 6 months there have been several announcements of new EV cars equally short of detail and at least one major executive stating that they are putting full resourcing to new, cleaner Diesel technology and I'm afraid I can't take them very seriously on EVs. (Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 14, 2018, 04:08:03 am
      Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait
      Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: TheSteve on November 14, 2018, 04:57:31 am
      Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait
      Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

      I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 14, 2018, 09:14:44 am
      Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait
      Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

      I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.
      I've read a review on the e-Golf from someone who has driven it for about 20000km (in Dutch https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/ (https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/) ). In the winter the range drops to around 120km with the heating on and driving on the highway at 120 to 130km/h. In the summer the range increases to 270km when driving mostly 60 to 80km/h. Making longer trips requires planning to make it to charging points. Also the range indicator is way off. The author of the review wanted to go to Italy but decided to borrow someone else's car due to lack of charging stations. The author also had problems with occupied and out-of-service charging stations which nearly made him miss a boat (across the sea to the UK) and caused him to drive around with only 3% charge left when he got off the boat again.

      Besides that there are also the teething problems any new car model has. At some point the author of the review had his e-Golf under repair for 3.5 weeks because the dealer couldn't find the problem. This problem occured just before he wanted to go to the UK again. As a precaution he already asked if he could borrow someone's car just in case the e-Golf would break down so he already had an alternative car lined up for the trip to the UK.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 14, 2018, 10:19:25 am
      At the moment, an EV battery pack costs a lot of money. None are at the $100 / kWh that is predicted to be required to make cars cheap. Tesla are thought to be at that level for the cells, but not the whole assembled pack. I have seen guesstamates that put other manufacturers at nearer $170  to $200 / kWh on the assembled pack.

      Aren't the target costs of $100/kWh referring to manufacturing costs (rather than sales price to the end customer)? Assuming that a car manufacturer targets 30% prime margin, that would translate into more than $140/kWh sales price. I believe the estimated Tesla actuals also refer to their manufacturing cost. So the gap VW has to close to get to 20k€ sales price is even wider.

      Quote
      If VW are going to produce a reasonable range electric car it will need a reasonable sized pack - lets guess 65 kWh (similar to the Nero, Kona, Tesla Model 3 and new Leaf).

      That's the optimistic view... When stating a bottom-of-the-barrel price tag, I am sure they have bottom-of-the-barrel battery capacity in mind. (And will happily sell you a larger battery at extra cost.)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 14, 2018, 05:56:21 pm
      Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait
      Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

      I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.
      I've read a review on the e-Golf from someone who has driven it for about 20000km (in Dutch https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/ (https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/) ). In the winter the range drops to around 120km with the heating on and driving on the highway at 120 to 130km/h. In the summer the range increases to 270km when driving mostly 60 to 80km/h. Making longer trips requires planning to make it to charging points. Also the range indicator is way off. The author of the review wanted to go to Italy but decided to borrow someone else's car due to lack of charging stations. The author also had problems with occupied and out-of-service charging stations which nearly made him miss a boat (across the sea to the UK) and caused him to drive around with only 3% charge left when he got off the boat again.

      I like the way you selectively grabbed information to claim the 120km range.  The author states that @ 130kmh into a headwind the range drops to 120km; and of course it does. The air resistance at 160kmph (130 + 30) air speed is 4x what it is at 80, and about double what it is at 115.  I think you'd find your petrol/diesel consumption would go up similar amounts at high speeds into a significant headwind too. 

      Again, from personal experience I consistently get 220+km range out of mine.

      As for the heater, I've been doing some testing, and the most consumption I see is 1.2kW for the heater on high, and the seat warmer on medium.   That will increase consumption/reduce mileage by less than 10% at highway speeds.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 14, 2018, 05:58:15 pm
      Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait
      Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

      I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.

      I will probably poke my head in at the swap this weekend around noon; so if you see a grey hair wearing a negative feedback shirt....   Or a dark red eGolf.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 14, 2018, 06:13:24 pm
      Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait
      Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

      I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.
      I've read a review on the e-Golf from someone who has driven it for about 20000km (in Dutch https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/ (https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/) ). In the winter the range drops to around 120km with the heating on and driving on the highway at 120 to 130km/h. In the summer the range increases to 270km when driving mostly 60 to 80km/h. Making longer trips requires planning to make it to charging points. Also the range indicator is way off. The author of the review wanted to go to Italy but decided to borrow someone else's car due to lack of charging stations. The author also had problems with occupied and out-of-service charging stations which nearly made him miss a boat (across the sea to the UK) and caused him to drive around with only 3% charge left when he got off the boat again.
      I like the way you selectively grabbed information to claim the 120km range.  The author states that @ 130kmh into a headwind the range drops to 120km; and of course it does. The air resistance at 160kmph (130 + 30) air speed is 4x what it is at 80, and about double what it is at 115.  I think you'd find your petrol/diesel consumption would go up similar amounts at high speeds into a significant headwind too. 
      On a petrol/diesel car the range doesn't get halved by driving against the wind AND having the heater or airconditioning on. I'm just stating that the e-Golf has a very small battery pack so having some range anxiety is a good mindset especially if you want to make long trips with it in the winter.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 14, 2018, 06:22:25 pm
      On a petrol/diesel car the range doesn't get halved by driving against the wind AND having the heater or airconditioning on. I'm just stating that the e-Golf has a very small battery pack so having some range anxiety is a good mindset especially if you want to make long trips with it in the winter.

      Which is just another way of saying that the petrol engine is far less efficient than an electrical engine, right?  ;)

      The absolute power required for air conditioning and for compensating headwinds is the same on both cars. But its relative impact on an electric car's range is larger, since the engine consumes relatively less.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 14, 2018, 06:26:48 pm
      On a petrol/diesel car the range doesn't get halved by driving against the wind AND having the heater or airconditioning on. I'm just stating that the e-Golf has a very small battery pack so having some range anxiety is a good mindset especially if you want to make long trips with it in the winter.
      Which is just another way of saying that the petrol engine is far less efficient than an electrical engine, right?  ;)

      The absolute power required for air conditioning and for compensating headwinds is the same on both cars. But its relative impact on an electric car's range is larger, since the engine consumes relatively less.
      OMG  :palm: No because an airconditioning sits at the output of the engine in a regular car just like the wheels. The heat is free. The problem is in the small size of the battery in the e-Golf which makes that the airconditioning or heating eat a significant amount of the energy and leaving less for the motor. This has nothing to do with efficiency. It is all about the amount of energy which the car can bring along.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 14, 2018, 07:29:28 pm
      OMG  :palm: No because an airconditioning sits at the output of the engine in a regular car just like the wheels. The heat is free. The problem is in the small size of the battery in the e-Golf which makes that the airconditioning or heating eat a significant amount of the energy and leaving less for the motor. This has nothing to do with efficiency. It is all about the amount of energy which the car can bring along.

      Air conditioning is when you cool, not heat the air, and it does take extra energy in a petrol engine.
      In general, please rethink your "small battery, nothing to do with efficiency" statement. It's wrong.
      And please don't face-palm users you are responding to; it's offensive.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 14, 2018, 07:35:49 pm
      OMG  :palm: No because an airconditioning sits at the output of the engine in a regular car just like the wheels. The heat is free. The problem is in the small size of the battery in the e-Golf which makes that the airconditioning or heating eat a significant amount of the energy and leaving less for the motor. This has nothing to do with efficiency. It is all about the amount of energy which the car can bring along.
      Air conditioning is when you cool, not heat the air, and it does take extra energy in a petrol engine.
      In general, please rethink your "small battery, nothing to do with efficiency" statement. It's wrong.
      And please don't face-palm users you are responding to; it's offensive.
      Show some numbers. Just saying it is wrong gets you another  :palm:
      To run an airconditioning for X time you need Y energy. If you have a car with a capacity of 10 energy units and one with 100 energy units then the car with 10 energy units will stop before the car with 100 energy units does. Where does efficiency come into play here?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 14, 2018, 07:46:01 pm
      Show some numbers. Just saying it is wrong gets you another  :palm:
      To run an airconditioning for X time you need Y energy. If you have a car with a capacity of 10 energy units and one with 100 energy units then the car with 10 energy units will stop before the car with 100 energy units does. Where does efficiency come into play here?

      Sheesh, man.
      Made-up numbers below, but maybe you can get the concept:
      Alternatively, feel free to look up the efficiencies of typical petrol vs. electrical engines. 40% vs. 90% or such.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 14, 2018, 07:57:18 pm
      Show some numbers. Just saying it is wrong gets you another  :palm:
      To run an airconditioning for X time you need Y energy. If you have a car with a capacity of 10 energy units and one with 100 energy units then the car with 10 energy units will stop before the car with 100 energy units does. Where does efficiency come into play here?
      Sheesh, man.
      Made-up numbers below, but maybe you can get the concept:
      • If you drive a petrol car and turn on the air conditioning, the range drops by 10%. So the air conditioning consumes 10% of the power of the engine, right?
      • If you drive an electric car and turn on the air conditioning, the range drops by 30%. So the air conditioning consumes 30% of the power the electric engine needs.
      • Both cars have similar air conditioning systems, which hence consume about the same power in absolute numbers.
      • So tell me, which engine consumes more power?
      Alternatively, feel free to look up the efficiencies of typical petrol vs. electrical engines. 40% vs. 90% or such.
      The efficiency doesn't matter in this discussion. It is all about convenience of use. A small range on an e-Golf (or any other EV with a small battery) means stopping more often and needing to do more planning to find charging points. With a petrol or diesel powered car I just fill it up in the morning which takes less than 5 minutes and drive all day without needing to worry about range, speed or having the airco on or not. Again: efficiency isn't the issue here because it doesn't get the EV any further and doesn't fix any problem.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 14, 2018, 08:00:55 pm
      The efficiency doesn't matter in this discussion.

      That's a weak way of saying that you finally understood, but OK, apology accepted.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 14, 2018, 08:04:10 pm
      It is all about convenience of use.

      Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.  The proof is in the pudding. Once you go EV - you don't go back.  ICE auto sales are declining. Meanwhile the exponential growth of EV adoption continues....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 14, 2018, 08:33:57 pm
      It is all about convenience of use.
      Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.
      :palm: Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on November 14, 2018, 08:40:47 pm
      It is all about convenience of use.
      Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.  The proof is in the pudding. Once you go EV - you don't go back.  ICE auto sales are declining. Meanwhile the exponential growth of EV adoption continues....
      Filling up my gasoline car is a 5 minute activity once a week or two, when I go to the local supermarket, which is next to the local gas station. Plugging an EV in each night may be little bother for day to day commuting, shopping, etc., but the "burden" for filling a gas or diesel car is also close to zero.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 14, 2018, 08:51:41 pm
      It is all about convenience of use.
      Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.
      :palm: Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.

      Studies have consistently shown that > 98% of car trips are well within the range of most EVs (50 miles or less) and >99% within the range of the newest high range EVs.  Just one example of such a study can be found here (http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/HowFarWeDrive_v1.3.pdf)
      (http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/Pictures/commute%20distance.jpg)
      (http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/Pictures/Car%20trip%20distances.jpg)

      Given the proliferation of charging options - the rare long trip can be done with minimal advanced planning or a rental.

      For almost all car owners, it is absolutely much more convenient to own an EV and not needing to go to a gas station for 99% of miles traveled and the facts on the ground - EV owner satisfaction and EV adoption rates support this.  Your ongoing "opinions" otherwise based on zero EV ownership experience and contradicted by the actual facts are worth very little.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 14, 2018, 09:09:30 pm

      Filling up my gasoline car is a 5 minute activity once a week or two, when I go to the local supermarket, which is next to the local gas station. Plugging an EV in each night may be little bother for day to day commuting, shopping, etc., but the "burden" for filling a gas or diesel car is also close to zero.

      Before I owned an EV I would have said the same thing.  Having owned ICE vehicles for 36 years before owning my first EV I really just took going to the gas station to fill up once a week for granted and wasn't bothered by it.  I did not buy an EV thinking it would be more convenient.  But soon after owning one I found that that was actually the best thing about EV ownership!   Before, with ICE vehicles I was always having to keep track of how much gas was in the tank and think about when I would make a detour to fill up. Usually it was at an inconvenient time.  Often I had to wait in line at the gas station.     Now, I don't even think about refueling except for the rare long trip. I just plug in at night and have no concerns about fuel for my day to day driving.  Again - most EV owners will tell you the same thing.

      If you are one of the rare people who have a job that requires you to drive long distances regularly then sure - an EV probably isn't for you (unless you can afford a Tesla and have superchargers on your usual routes).  But those are edge cases.  Most people will find EV ownership much more convenient than ICE ownership.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 14, 2018, 09:12:02 pm
      It is all about convenience of use.

      Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.  The proof is in the pudding. Once you go EV - you don't go back.  ICE auto sales are declining. Meanwhile the exponential growth of EV adoption continues....

      Not quite.  In the Pacific Northwest they have storms which knock out the power for a week.  No electricity can't drive the car.

      Or what about in California where we are having wildfires.  Drive home and hope to charge the batteries at night but a wild fire knocks out the power to a neighborhood.  Car's not getting charged.  Then the police tell everyone to evacuate and you jump in you car to find the batteries haven't been charged.  Now you are toast.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 14, 2018, 09:14:56 pm
      (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sAmrBnXpzHc/TaUYLLqMQOI/AAAAAAAAACY/oCaP6B7ZoJY/s1600/troll_detected.png)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 14, 2018, 11:17:59 pm
      It is all about convenience of use.
      Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.
      :palm: Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.
      Studies have consistently shown that > 98% of car trips are well within the range of most EVs (50 miles or less) and >99% within the range of the newest high range
      That old crap again  :palm: People don't want a car which can do 98% because that would make it a waste of money. Real example: a while ago my wife and I travelled about 2800km along various destinations in Europe in a couple of days. With our car that took 26 hours of driving in total. If we would use an e-Golf with a range of 200km while driving 130km/h (real 130km/h) then we would have needed to charge 14 times which takes at least 30 minutes each time. That would have added at least 7 hours extra to the travelling time, make the trip take one day longer and make the time needed to travel over 25% longer. If you still insist that an EV is better then you are completely mad.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 14, 2018, 11:54:27 pm
      It is all about convenience of use.
      Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.
      :palm: Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.
      Studies have consistently shown that > 98% of car trips are well within the range of most EVs (50 miles or less) and >99% within the range of the newest high range
      That old crap again

      Facts are a bitch, aren't they?  Especially when all you have is opinion.

      Here (http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/HowFarWeDrive_v1.3.pdf) they are again since you continue to ignore them.
      (http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/Pictures/commute%20distance.jpg)
      (http://www.solarjourneyusa.com/Pictures/Car%20trip%20distances.jpg)

      And the beat goes on....

      (http://www.ev-volumes.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/WW-M-6-2018.png)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on November 15, 2018, 02:24:46 am
      Same old story.  People telling other people why they are wrong.  Which boils down to people telling other people that the way they have chosen to live is the best way of living.  Which is always subjective regardless of the facts marshalled to support them.

      Fact is EVs can satisfy the bulk of actual trips.  As can high fuel economy conventional vehicles.  But there are other reasons why people drive cars than just being the most efficient for most trips.  Bicycles are actually most efficient for most trips, but they don't satisfy some of those other reasons.

      One more use case why it will be a while before I buy an EV.  I keep my vehicle costs low by buying used vehicles and driving them a long time.  My vehicles tend to have several hundred thousand miles before I let them go.  So license fees, insurance costs and depreciation are all near zero.  Economy is not as good as I could get in a newer vehicle, but that doesn't overwhelm the other savings.

      So I am not going to be getting into the EV business before they start hitting the used market in meaningful numbers.  If the durability that is touted for EVs is correct, that may be a long time.  A Tesla Model X actually works pretty well for me but I just can't  bring myself to part with well over 80K for a vehicle.  That number would pay purchase and all expenses, gas and everything else for decades of the types of vehicles I drive.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on November 15, 2018, 03:26:51 am
      Not quite.  In the Pacific Northwest they have storms which knock out the power for a week.  No electricity can't drive the car.

      Or what about in California where we are having wildfires.  Drive home and hope to charge the batteries at night but a wild fire knocks out the power to a neighborhood.  Car's not getting charged.  Then the police tell everyone to evacuate and you jump in you car to find the batteries haven't been charged.  Now you are toast.
      Ask residents of hurricane prone areas how well they fared with gas stations running out of gas. :) A plug in hybrid would be the best solution for that sort of emergency - being able to use either gas or electricity gives a lot of flexibility.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: tszaboo on November 15, 2018, 10:17:57 am
      That old crap again  :palm: People don't want a car which can do 98% because that would make it a waste of money. Real example: a while ago my wife and I travelled about 2800km along various destinations in Europe in a couple of days. With our car that took 26 hours of driving in total. If we would use an e-Golf with a range of 200km while driving 130km/h (real 130km/h) then we would have needed to charge 14 times which takes at least 30 minutes each time. That would have added at least 7 hours extra to the travelling time, make the trip take one day longer and make the time needed to travel over 25% longer. If you still insist that an EV is better then you are completely mad.
      I really hope you use a RV for the daily commute, because "Once a year we go to France" and you prefer sleeping in an uncomfortable bed instead of a Hotel.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: richard.cs on November 15, 2018, 01:51:01 pm
      That old crap again  :palm: People don't want a car which can do 98% because that would make it a waste of money. Real example: a while ago my wife and I travelled about 2800km along various destinations in Europe in a couple of days. With our car that took 26 hours of driving in total. If we would use an e-Golf with a range of 200km while driving 130km/h (real 130km/h) then we would have needed to charge 14 times which takes at least 30 minutes each time. That would have added at least 7 hours extra to the travelling time, make the trip take one day longer and make the time needed to travel over 25% longer. If you still insist that an EV is better then you are completely mad.

      If that is the kind of journeys you do by car then don't buy an EV, but don't assume that your usage is representative off all other drivers. For example at age 31 the longest single-day journey I have driven or been a car passenger in is 532 miles (Fort William to Southampton, in current traffic about 9 hours 40 minutes), and I have no intention of repeating it. Subsequent trips have had, and likely always will have, an overnight stop. I know some people (especially Americans) consider this short distance, but for me, and a good fraction of other British people this is generally considered to be the sensible upper limit for a single day's driving.

      In that trip (with a diesel car) we had two stops, in one of those the driver had an hour's nap, and in the other we stopped for perhaps 45 minutes for a meal. I would have preferred more stops in any case, but that's what we did. Total ICE journey time around 9h40m +1h0m + 0h45m = 11h25m. Taking your e-Golf numbers that ~850 km would require 4 stops of 30 minutes. Total journey time would be 9h40m + 4*0h30m =  11h40m. I don't consider an extra 15 minutes on an 11+ hour journey to be significant. That 15 minutes ignored that the final charge could be shorter, and I also ignored that we also stopped once to buy diesel.

      Sure, you might drive further or care about that 15 minutes, but huge numbers of people don't, huge numbers of people already like to stop for more than 30 minutes every 2 hours. Those people form a market for whom the current generation of EVs are entirely suitable. If you're not one of them don't buy an EV, buy a diesel BMW.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 15, 2018, 04:52:39 pm
      It is all about convenience of use.
      Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.
      :palm: Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.
      Studies have consistently shown that > 98% of car trips are well within the range of most EVs (50 miles or less) and >99% within the range of the newest high range
      That old crap again  :palm: People don't want a car which can do 98% because that would make it a waste of money. Real example: a while ago my wife and I travelled about 2800km along various destinations in Europe in a couple of days. With our car that took 26 hours of driving in total. If we would use an e-Golf with a range of 200km while driving 130km/h (real 130km/h) then we would have needed to charge 14 times which takes at least 30 minutes each time. That would have added at least 7 hours extra to the travelling time, make the trip take one day longer and make the time needed to travel over 25% longer. If you still insist that an EV is better then you are completely mad.

      Simple - Just rent an EV with longer range.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 15, 2018, 04:59:44 pm
      That old crap again  :palm: People don't want a car which can do 98% because that would make it a waste of money. Real example: a while ago my wife and I travelled about 2800km along various destinations in Europe in a couple of days. With our car that took 26 hours of driving in total. If we would use an e-Golf with a range of 200km while driving 130km/h (real 130km/h) then we would have needed to charge 14 times which takes at least 30 minutes each time. That would have added at least 7 hours extra to the travelling time, make the trip take one day longer and make the time needed to travel over 25% longer. If you still insist that an EV is better then you are completely mad.
      If that is the kind of journeys you do by car then don't buy an EV, but don't assume that your usage is representative off all other drivers. For example at age 31 the longest single-day journey I have driven or been a car passenger in is 532 miles (Fort William to Southampton, in current traffic about 9 hours 40 minutes),
      Try to follow the news. During the summer holidays the highways of mainland Europe are constipated due to the millions of people using their car to go to their holiday destination abroad. Tell all of them to use an EV and watch their reaction.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 15, 2018, 05:04:08 pm
      So manybe Germans’s can’t get the range on VWs......  But American’s sure can with VWs.
      Just look at what “we” can do to a “Thing”.  In the US VW sold these WW II reproductions as a VW Thing.


      https://youtu.be/2Xo-bECQGqE


      And here’s an old look at a Tesla

      https://youtu.be/cMlfBKd_hz8



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: richard.cs on November 15, 2018, 05:15:52 pm
      Try to follow the news. During the summer holidays the highways of mainland Europe are constipated due to the millions of people using their car to go to their holiday destination abroad. Tell all of them to use an EV and watch their reaction.

      The population of mainland Europe is ~700 million, if there are millions of people who want to drive thousands of miles a few times a year so what? It might mean EVs are (currently) unsuitable for 10 million or even 100 million people. Does that somehow mean that there are zero people who just don't have that as a requirement when selecting a car? Zero people who already take longer breaks when driving, zero people who prefer to fly or take the train when going thousands of miles, zero people who just don't do more than 500 miles in a day in their ICE cars? Heavy traffic in summer tells you nothing about whether or not there is a meaningfully-sized market of people for whom EV range is adequate.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 15, 2018, 09:09:54 pm
      Yes, I do know they do an electric Golf, I also know that when I went in the dealership to ask about it no one there knew much about it and the only statement I got was that there was about an 18 month wait
      Ordered Jan 2018, Delivered May 2018.  it really wasn't that long a wait, but it's a popular car (36kWh pack) at a fair price.

      I'll certainly consider an E-Golf when I eventually need a new car if the price gets better and hopefully they have a little more power. I do like my Golf's but it would be tough to give up the power and sound I currently have. Maybe I'll see your car at a swap one of these days.
      I've read a review on the e-Golf from someone who has driven it for about 20000km (in Dutch https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/ (https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/) ). In the winter the range drops to around 120km with the heating on and driving on the highway at 120 to 130km/h. In the summer the range increases to 270km when driving mostly 60 to 80km/h. Making longer trips requires planning to make it to charging points. Also the range indicator is way off. The author of the review wanted to go to Italy but decided to borrow someone else's car due to lack of charging stations. The author also had problems with occupied and out-of-service charging stations which nearly made him miss a boat (across the sea to the UK) and caused him to drive around with only 3% charge left when he got off the boat again.
      I like the way you selectively grabbed information to claim the 120km range.  The author states that @ 130kmh into a headwind the range drops to 120km; and of course it does. The air resistance at 160kmph (130 + 30) air speed is 4x what it is at 80, and about double what it is at 115.  I think you'd find your petrol/diesel consumption would go up similar amounts at high speeds into a significant headwind too. 
      On a petrol/diesel car the range doesn't get halved by driving against the wind AND having the heater or airconditioning on. I'm just stating that the e-Golf has a very small battery pack so having some range anxiety is a good mindset especially if you want to make long trips with it in the winter.

      :palm:  The mileage does drop, in exactly the same way, in an ICE car at high speed, just like it does with an EV.  And, a headwind adds even more effective speed you're pushing against.

      It's pretty easy to understand why....  The laws of Newtonian Physics apply themselves agnostically, not caring if the vehicle is ICE or EV.  Friction is Friction, and it requires energy to overcome, and not surprisingly the amount required to overcome increases by exactly the same amount EV or ICE.

      As for the use of Air Con and/or heating in an EV, they consume just over 1kW (fixed) when turned up to max (I think I've seen 1.3) my real world results, which is well under 10% of normal driving consumption (around 15-16kW ) being used to heat/cool a car.  Yes, it will affect your range by perhaps 10%; similar to what it can in an ICE car.

      An eGolf does have only a moderately sized battery (35kWh), vs some of the (Tesla 75-100kWh) competition. It is however, perfect for the vast majority of vehicle trips by the vast majority of the population as other people in here keep showing using hard facts.

      Owning an automobile which fulfils the vast majority of my needs is much cheaper than trying to purchase and own something that fulfils every possible need every time. By your logic, everyone would own oversized minivans that seat 12 and carry 2 tonnes, because occasionally they may need to haul move house, or carry 12 people.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 15, 2018, 09:26:34 pm
      Owning an automobile which fulfils the vast majority of my needs is much cheaper than trying to purchase and own something that fulfils every possible need every time. By your logic, everyone would own oversized minivans that seat 12 and carry 2 tonnes, because occasionally they may need to haul move house, or carry 12 people.

      Exactly.  It's like the people who buy large SUVs because twice a year they go to the mountains go skiing....

      Those who make this argument against EVs remind me of people 20 years ago saying that DSOs would never be mainstream because an analog scope will always be better for <insert niche application here> ::)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 15, 2018, 10:58:05 pm
      Not quite.  In the Pacific Northwest they have storms which knock out the power for a week.  No electricity can't drive the car.

      Or what about in California where we are having wildfires.  Drive home and hope to charge the batteries at night but a wild fire knocks out the power to a neighborhood.  Car's not getting charged.  Then the police tell everyone to evacuate and you jump in you car to find the batteries haven't been charged.  Now you are toast.
      Ask residents of hurricane prone areas how well they fared with gas stations running out of gas. :) A plug in hybrid would be the best solution for that sort of emergency - being able to use either gas or electricity gives a lot of flexibility.

      It also takes electricity to pump gas; and most gasoline providers have no way to pump it if there's no electricity.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on November 15, 2018, 11:29:04 pm
      Owning an automobile which fulfils the vast majority of my needs is much cheaper than trying to purchase and own something that fulfils every possible need every time. By your logic, everyone would own oversized minivans that seat 12 and carry 2 tonnes, because occasionally they may need to haul move house, or carry 12 people.

      Exactly.  It's like the people who buy large SUVs because twice a year they go to the mountains go skiing....

      Those who make this argument against EVs remind me of people 20 years ago saying that DSOs would never be mainstream because an analog scope will always be better for <insert niche application here> ::)

      EVs are more advanced now than 20year old DSOs were.

      What are now "niche applications" were mainstream then, & the applications that suited DSOs well were
      pretty much "niche" ones.
      Interestingly, DSOs have, over the years, become more "analog like" in their UIs, forsaking the old
      "We are digital, we are wonderful, live with it" shtick.

      EVs, to their credit, do try to make the user changeover fairly seamless.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 18, 2018, 03:50:43 am
      Interesting interview with Ford’s new CEO.  http://freakonomics.com/podcast/ford/#disqus_thread (http://freakonomics.com/podcast/ford/#disqus_thread)
      Ford’s new CEO is saying car sales are down word wiide.  They will be discontinuing all sedans and focus on F-150 trucks and muscle cars like the Mustang.  Ford is also looking at merging with VW or maybe it was the otherway around.  Ford is saying companies like Tesla have really disrupted the ICE car industry. 

      Other thing he said was Ford 100 years ago was building electric cars in partnership with Thomas Edison.  Would have liked to hear more about that partnership.

      Hard to beleive a car company such as Ford is imploding and is trying to reinvent itself as a tech company.....  Fat chance.  If they dummies were smar they would buy Tesla.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 18, 2018, 10:44:16 am
      It is all about convenience of use.
      Yes, yes it is.  EVs are much more convenient as anyone who actually owns one will tell you (and have told you but you like to pretend otherwise). Fill it up every night at home. No more need to waste time at gas stations.
      :palm: Until you want to travel far.... Read the review I linked to.
      Studies have consistently shown that > 98% of car trips are well within the range of most EVs (50 miles or less) and >99% within the range of the newest high range
      By your reasoning you'd be perfectly happy with a roof over your home which leaks when it is raining very hard. After all it only rains very hard a few times per year. Or a phone which drops 2 out of 100 calls. Or a tyre you need to inflate every week due to a small leak. Need I go on or do you finally get it?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 18, 2018, 05:41:22 pm
        :palm:

      Right, because people will chose to buy leaky roofs 2.1 million times in 2018.
      Both EVs and ICE cars have shortcomings but EVs are the future.

      Your analogies don’t hold water. You lost this argument a long time ago. You must just be too soggy to realize it.  ;D

      (http://www.ev-volumes.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/WW-M-6-2018.png)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 18, 2018, 06:07:26 pm
      By your reasoning you'd be perfectly happy with a roof over your home which leaks when it is raining very hard. After all it only rains very hard a few times per year. Or a phone which drops 2 out of 100 calls. Or a tyre you need to inflate every week due to a small leak. Need I go on or do you finally get it?

      Your analogies are slightly besides the point, and you are probably aware of it. In contrast to a home confronted with a sudden heavy rainfall, or a phone call with random connection drops, I can plan ahead for a long car trip and rent a suitable vehicle for longer distances or larger transports.

      Believe it or not, people are actually doing that routinely: They choose not to drive a truck for everyday use, but a small city car. And when they need to transport large items once in a while, they rent a larger car or truck. Or, if you prefer you phone example: I don't use a satellite phone for daily use, since GSM covers my daily needs. If I should ever have the desire for a trip across a desert, I will probably rent a satellite phone.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 18, 2018, 06:22:06 pm
      According to Ford’s new CEO Tesla, millennials, EVsn ad self driving cars have disrupted the ICE car companies.  Surprised no one has posted this yet.

      Globally car sales are down....  way down.   Ford plans on discontinuing sales of all cars with the exception of F-150 trucks and Mustangs. 

      Ford want’s to become a Tech company like Facebook and Tesla.  Why the heck doen’t Ford buy Tesla?  (The merger of course would never work.  Ford management will never get it.)
      And Ford and VW are talking about a merger.  In the past it was GM with the Japanese and now it’s Ford with the Germans.

      Andre here’s an interesting tidbit......   Thomas Edison was working with Henry Ford 100 years ago on Eletric cars.  Wonder what happened.

      When will Electric Cars become mainstream. A lot faster than what the big car companies were hoping.  If one of the world’s big three automakers is scared and changing direction you had better beleive change in happing much faster that we could ever imagine. .   

      http://freakonomics.com/podcast/ford/ (http://freakonomics.com/podcast/ford/)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 18, 2018, 06:34:32 pm
      Globally car sales are down....  way down.   

      Really?
      https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/)

      Or do you mean Ford's car sales?
      https://www.statista.com/statistics/380104/global-vehicle-sales-of-ford/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/380104/global-vehicle-sales-of-ford/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on November 18, 2018, 06:57:15 pm
      Globally car sales are down....  way down.   Ford plans on discontinuing sales of all cars with the exception of F-150 trucks and Mustangs. 
      In the US car sales are way down, because in the US so many consumer vehicles (e,g, SUVs) are classified as light trucks instead of cars. To Ford, the F150 is not considered a car, and neither are all the SUVs they make for the US market. The migration from sedans to SUVs has hurt US car figures and boosted the light truck figures. In most of the world SUVs are considered cars, and the car sales numbers look pretty good. As far as I know Ford is only discontinuing "car" sales in the US. There seems no sign of them ending the sale of sedans, wagons and hatchbacks elsewhere. Although car sales in most countries are migrating to SUVs, it is not happening so fast that killing all sedans, wagons and hatchbacks makes sense for a large car maker.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 18, 2018, 07:07:01 pm
      Globally car sales are down....  way down.   

      Really?
      https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/)

      Or do you mean Ford's car sales?
      https://www.statista.com/statistics/380104/global-vehicle-sales-of-ford/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/380104/global-vehicle-sales-of-ford/)

      Did you listen to the podcast?  http://freakonomics.com/podcast/ford/ (http://freakonomics.com/podcast/ford/)
      I’m just saying what Ford’s CEO is saying.

      Curd hard to believe Tesla market cap is worth more than Ford.
       

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on November 18, 2018, 07:10:09 pm
      Year over year ICE auto sales turned down in September (https://ycharts.com/indicators/auto_sales) (usually the strongest month). Historically, this has been a harbinger of coming recession.  Meanwhile EV sales have continued to grow at a rapid rate.

      Overall, 1st world ICE auto sales have been relatively flat for the past 20 years (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA).  However when you add in the developing world (esp China) there has been modest growth.

      In all cases - over the past few years, EV sales growth has far,far surpassed ICE sales growth (if any).

      My prediction is that ICE auto sales will continue to stagnate while EV sales growth continues its exponential growth pattern. Eventually, in 20 years or so we'll be in a place where the large majority of auto sales will be EVs though overall total auto sales will never again reach current levels. Globally, the economy is peaking.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 18, 2018, 07:19:01 pm
      Globally car sales are down....  way down.   Ford plans on discontinuing sales of all cars with the exception of F-150 trucks and Mustangs. 
      In the US car sales are way down, because in the US so many consumer vehicles (e,g, SUVs) are classified as light trucks instead of cars. To Ford, the F150 is not considered a car, and neither are all the SUVs they make for the US market. The migration from sedans to SUVs has hurt US car figures and boosted the light truck figures. In most of the world SUVs are considered cars, and the car sales numbers look pretty good. As far as I know Ford is only discontinuing "car" sales in the US. There seems no sign of them ending the sale of sedans, wagons and hatchbacks elsewhere. Although car sales in most countries are migrating to SUVs, it is not happening so fast that killing all sedans, wagons and hatchbacks makes sense for a large car maker.

      Guess what you are saying is it is all in the definition.  The CEO did say they will be discontinuing all car production with the exception of the Mustang and focus on the product that’s making them the most money the F-150 truck.  I thought he said Ford would discontinue production of sedans as well as those were the least profitable.  But would have to listen again to be sure.

      This is worth saying agin....  Hard to beleive Ford one of the top three automobile/sedan/truck manfactures market cap is less than Tesla.  Just means Tesla is perceived value is much greater than that of a one of the largest companies in the world. 



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: glarsson on November 18, 2018, 07:44:36 pm
      This is worth saying agin....  Hard to beleive Ford one of the top three automobile/sedan/truck manfactures market cap is less than Tesla.  Just means Tesla is perceived value is much greater than that of a one of the largest companies in the world.
      Not the current value. The market cap reflects the markets belief of future profits and value.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 18, 2018, 07:59:53 pm
      This is worth saying agin....  Hard to beleive Ford one of the top three automobile/sedan/truck manfactures market cap is less than Tesla.  Just means Tesla is perceived value is much greater than that of a one of the largest companies in the world.
      Not the current value. The market cap reflects the markets belief of future profits and value.

      Correct.  Market cap i the perceived value....  Those were my words.   
      Tesla’s perceived value is much greater than that of the well established car company, Ford.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 18, 2018, 08:01:56 pm
      By your reasoning you'd be perfectly happy with a roof over your home which leaks when it is raining very hard. After all it only rains very hard a few times per year. Or a phone which drops 2 out of 100 calls. Or a tyre you need to inflate every week due to a small leak. Need I go on or do you finally get it?
      Your analogies are slightly besides the point, and you are probably aware of it. In contrast to a home confronted with a sudden heavy rainfall, or a phone call with random connection drops, I can plan ahead for a long car trip and rent a suitable vehicle for longer distances or larger transports.

      Believe it or not, people are actually doing that routinely: They choose not to drive a truck for everyday use, but a small city car.
      It is not about the size of the vehicle but the useability of a similar sized vehicle. The leaking roof analogy is therefore very accurate. Choose between a house with an automatic door + leaky roof or a house with a manual door which has a good roof.

      Read every EV owner's story about their electric car and they all write the same: long trips require planning to find charging points, long breaks (great if you like to eat bad food at restaurants along a highway) but they all like to pull away faster from the traffic light. Most don't even mention the nuisance of needing to plug it in every time they get back at home. Is that progress? I think not. New technology should be better in every way and not a step back.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ebastler on November 18, 2018, 08:16:42 pm
      It is not about the size of the vehicle but the useability of a similar sized vehicle. The leaking roof analogy is therefore very accurate.

      Argghh... No, the EV debate (and your prior arguments) are, of course, not about the size. They are about the range. And the distance of the trip to be made, as well as the limited range of an EV, are rather predictable parameters. So they are very different from "leaks", or unexpected heavy rainfall. If you want to take a long-distance trip, you may want to rent a long-distance vehicle.

      I am not sure whether you are playing dumb in order to troll, or are just too emotionally invested in this topic (why would you?) to read and write with a clear mind. In either case, I'm out of here; this is too frustrating.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on November 18, 2018, 11:21:10 pm
      Most don't even mention the nuisance of needing to plug it in every time they get back at home.
      I don't know about you, but I would much prefer plugging in at home every day than having to stop by the gas station every other week or so. And as mentioned many times before, plug in hybrids give the best of both worlds.

      Now I wonder how come there's not more investment in EVs that convert to plug in hybrids by adding a generator trailer?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 18, 2018, 11:23:43 pm
      It is not about the size of the vehicle but the useability of a similar sized vehicle. The leaking roof analogy is therefore very accurate.

      Argghh... No, the EV debate (and your prior arguments) are, of course, not about the size. They are about the range. And the distance of the trip to be made, as well as the limited range of an EV, are rather predictable parameters. So they are very different from "leaks", or unexpected heavy rainfall. If you want to take a long-distance trip, you may want to rent a long-distance vehicle.

      I am not sure whether you are playing dumb in order to troll, or are just too emotionally invested in this topic (why would you?) to read and write with a clear mind. In either case, I'm out of here; this is too frustrating.

      Remember, this is the same guy that thought the physics of drag affected EVs differently than ICE vehicles.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 18, 2018, 11:27:23 pm
      Most don't even mention the nuisance of needing to plug it in every time they get back at home.
      I don't know about you, but I would much prefer plugging in at home every day than having to stop by the gas station every other week or so. And as mentioned many times before, plug in hybrids give the best of both worlds.

      Now I wonder how come there's not more investment in EVs that convert to plug in hybrids by adding a generator trailer?

      May I ask you where you learned physics?   You have some interesting concepts that all break the law of physics.  Just wondering who is teaching this stuff?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on November 18, 2018, 11:50:48 pm
      May I ask you where you learned physics?   You have some interesting concepts that all break the law of physics.  Just wondering who is teaching this stuff?
      Please explain why the idea of adding a generator trailer breaks the law of physics. It has actually been done by DIYers. What's missing is commercial investment into that technology.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 19, 2018, 03:39:19 am
      May I ask you where you learned physics?   You have some interesting concepts that all break the law of physics.  Just wondering who is teaching this stuff?
      Please explain why the idea of adding a generator trailer breaks the law of physics. It has actually been done by DIYers. What's missing is commercial investment into that technology.

      Help me understand what it is you are trying to do by adding a generator trailor?  Are you thinking as the car travels down the road the generator will produce electricity to power the car as in a perpetual motion machine?  Yup, that violate the laws of physics.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on November 19, 2018, 04:27:05 am
      The way I understand the concept the trailer has an ICE, a generator, a gas tank and a power outlet.  It ends up working like a less integrated version of the Volt.  For the 98% of trips around town you leave the trailer in the garage and don't pay the Volt penalty of dragging the motor generator set around.  On the highway the ICE is set to run at it's optimum efficiency point and supplements the battery.  Could also be used for overnight charges in places that have limited power.  The idea isn't brain dead, and if well implemented might be a potential solution to the range problem.  All of you laws of physics guys can now do a face palm and ask yourself why you didn't think of that
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on November 19, 2018, 04:30:31 am
      Help me understand what it is you are trying to do by adding a generator trailor?  Are you thinking as the car travels down the road the generator will produce electricity to power the car as in a perpetual motion machine?  Yup, that violate the laws of physics.
      The whole point of the generator trailer is to turn the EV into a hybrid. It can even still be running on renewable energy if biofuels are used. The advantage over a hybrid to begin with is no extra weight for daily driving.
      Here's an example:
      https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/the-acp-long-ranger.802/
      Note that it has been tried over 10 years ago but didn't really catch on. The generator could be replaced with fuel cells or batteries in the future as technology improves.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on November 19, 2018, 05:21:17 am
      The biggest problem with the trailer concepts is that electric vehicles are really optimized.  Introducing something else into the equation is tough, and making one size fit all is really tough.  As is generating customized solutions for each of the vehicles out there.

      To do it right it should be integrated into the vehicle battery management.  The dynamic braking system should be adjusted to reflect the presence of the trailer.  Which brings up the idea of putting a trailer hitch on these super lightweight and optimized vehicles.  The list goes on and on. 

      It is probably more a matter of economics than engineering that has kept these things off of the market.  No one has been able to project sales sufficient to cover the R&D.  This might change as the EV market gets bigger.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on November 19, 2018, 12:05:49 pm
      May I ask you where you learned physics?   You have some interesting concepts that all break the law of physics.  Just wondering who is teaching this stuff?
      Please explain why the idea of adding a generator trailer breaks the law of physics. It has actually been done by DIYers. What's missing is commercial investment into that technology.

      Help me understand what it is you are trying to do by adding a generator trailor?  Are you thinking as the car travels down the road the generator will produce electricity to power the car as in a perpetual motion machine?  Yup, that violate the laws of physics.
      Don't be silly!

      There is no such thing as a "generator trailer" which gets its power from the wheel's rotation.
      Generator trailer means a generator driven by a ICE .
      This would provide electric power to either supply the actual motor requirements, or to recharge the EV batteries, or both.

      There would be an obvious increase in the amount of mechanical power needed to move the thing along the road, just like any trailer, but any reduction in range from that would be a small downside compared to the convenience of increasing the vehicle range.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 19, 2018, 04:10:19 pm
      May I ask you where you learned physics?   You have some interesting concepts that all break the law of physics.  Just wondering who is teaching this stuff?
      Please explain why the idea of adding a generator trailer breaks the law of physics. It has actually been done by DIYers. What's missing is commercial investment into that technology.


      Help me understand what it is you are trying to do by adding a generator trailor?  Are you thinking as the car travels down the road the generator will produce electricity to power the car as in a perpetual motion machine?  Yup, that violate the laws of physics.
      Don't be silly!

      There is no such thing as a "generator trailer" which gets its power from the wheel's rotation.
      Generator trailer means a generator driven by a ICE .
      This would provide electric power to either supply the actual motor requirements, or to recharge the EV batteries, or both.

      There would be an obvious increase in the amount of mechanical power needed to move the thing along the road, just like any trailer, but any reduction in range from that would be a small downside compared to the convenience of increasing the vehicle range.

      Ummm up until the mid 1950s all cars had generators.  Must not have been then sillily.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on November 19, 2018, 05:03:50 pm
      Year over year ICE auto sales turned down in September (https://ycharts.com/indicators/auto_sales) (usually the strongest month). Historically, this has been a harbinger of coming recession.  Meanwhile EV sales have continued to grow at a rapid rate.

      Overall, 1st world ICE auto sales have been relatively flat for the past 20 years (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA).  However when you add in the developing world (esp China) there has been modest growth.

      In all cases - over the past few years, EV sales growth has far,far surpassed ICE sales growth (if any).

      My prediction is that ICE auto sales will continue to stagnate while EV sales growth continues its exponential growth pattern. Eventually, in 20 years or so we'll be in a place where the large majority of auto sales will be EVs though overall total auto sales will never again reach current levels. Globally, the economy is peaking.

      It's easier to go from selling, say, 10 thousand cars a year to 40 thousand cars a year, wow, 400% growth! But that's just 30 thousand more cars. OTOH "stagnated" at 3.1% year to year growth when you're selling 79 million cars a year, that's 2.5 million more on top of that 79 millions:

      https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/)

      PEVs are (5.4e6) still less than 0.4% of the total (1.3e9), and most of that 0.4% are hybrids, thus ICEs anyway, not BEVs.

      Hybrids are the only way they're managing to shove EVs down our throats, other than forbidding ICEs which seems to be on the agenda of the dummies that rule us, or so it seems.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 19, 2018, 05:36:19 pm
      - long trips require planning to find charging points,
      - long breaks (great if you like to eat bad food at restaurants along a highway) but they all like to pull away faster from the traffic light.
      - Most don't even mention the nuisance of needing to plug it in every time they get back at home.
      No it doesn't require planning. The car plans it all by itself. There are so many chargers that almost at any given point one is in reach. Many shopping centers have em now.
      Not long breaks. Drive 3 hours , go for pipi and a cup of coffee and move on. 20 to 30 minutes tops you off. You may want ot drive for more than 3 hours non stop but i like to stretch my legs. it actually makes road trips enjoyable.
      What nuisance ? put it in the garage and plug it in. What is the problem ? and it's not like you have to. I plug them in maybe one every two to 3 weeks at home. Otherwise i plug at shopping centers. Whenever we go for groceries , or we go for dinner somewhere :plug em there. When you come back the batteries are full.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 19, 2018, 06:05:29 pm
      Visited the Tesla showroom last night.  Trying to decide between a Tesla and Volt.  (Not sure what else to consider).  The Bavarian Money Wasters is out, as the BMW once the battery is depleted only runs on a gas engine at 40 MPH and has a couple gallons of fuel.  (How stupid is that.)

      Anyway Tesla had a big screen to show you how much the electricty would cost to charge the car.  (Very nice).  Bleeping A.  Using California/PG&E’s EV rate during peak hours it costs nearly $50 dollars to charge the car.  I just filled my truck/ICE and it was $50. 

      Now I realize that’s during peak hours, so during partial peak it’s $25 and off-peak it’s $12.  Imagine if a tank of gas cost $12 or $50 depending on when you purchase it. 

      So for Tesla and other EV owners when you take a long trip and have to charge how much are you charged?  (I have a Volt, so long trips just use gas.). But if i were to get an EV only car I’m wondering what the EV rates are.  I’ve never seen them posted at ChargePoint or other places.  I’m wondering if they Charging Stations charge as much or more than the equilivnet for gasoline?




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 19, 2018, 06:31:04 pm
      - long trips require planning to find charging points,
      - long breaks (great if you like to eat bad food at restaurants along a highway) but they all like to pull away faster from the traffic light.
      - Most don't even mention the nuisance of needing to plug it in every time they get back at home.
      No it doesn't require planning. The car plans it all by itself. There are so many chargers that almost at any given point one is in reach. Many shopping centers have em now.
      Not long breaks. Drive 3 hours , go for pipi and a cup of coffee and move on. 20 to 30 minutes tops you off. You may want ot drive for more than 3 hours non stop but i like to stretch my legs. it actually makes road trips enjoyable.
      What nuisance ? put it in the garage and plug it in. What is the problem ? and it's not like you have to. I plug them in maybe one every two to 3 weeks at home. Otherwise i plug at shopping centers. Whenever we go for groceries , or we go for dinner somewhere :plug em there. When you come back the batteries are full.
      Read what you are writing: plug-in here, plug-in there, plug-in here, plug-in there, plug-in here, plug-in there. Always baby sitting the car! That just utterly sucks. Also there may be chargers where you are going but read this review: https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/ (https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/) This guy had to borrow a car to go to Italy because there aren't enough chargers there. The UK and Belgium started to get challenging already for him and in eastern Europe it is even worse. Sure this isn't a problem in California but what if you'd want to go to Mexico for example? And how about making sure the hotel you are staying at has a charger which works?

      It is all way too much hassle.  Why the hell would I put up with that if I can buy a car on petrol which needs a fill in the morning and goes the entire day? My wife can drive too so our road trips usually look like this: I drive 2 hours, she drives 2 hours (nap time for me), I drive 1,5 hours and she drives 1,5 hours and we are where we want to be. Just pee and go again when changing drivers. Even including the pee breaks we often arrive ahead of the travel time the navigation system estimated. Sometimes we drive in the evening as well and if there is one thing you shouldn't do it is hanging around at a gas station when it is dark and quiet.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on November 19, 2018, 07:07:06 pm
      Agree mostly with the too high maintenance point. Not only is this a hassle, but it creates a dependency that may end up putting you at risk. And yes, for most people living in urban areas, having their own individual charging spot is out of the question, and it's only going to get worse as urban areas get denser, which is the current trend that I don't see reversing in any foreseeable future. Unfortunately, urban areas are the ones where EVs would make the most sense, due to the relatively shorter trips and the density which makes local pollution much more of a problem. Damn.

      Very few people are also talking about the real environmental impact of EVs overall. They'd be in for a bad surprise.

      But the main issue I see as of now is that EVs are not a scalable solution. We just don't have the ability to generate that much electricity to replace petrol-based vehicles, and most plans of getting there are against current trends of progressively getting rid of both fossile-based electricity generation and nuclear energy (even though we know this is just wishful thinking, but we fail to see the consistency of it all). Current battery technologies also make use of materials that are not renewable. Current users and proponents of EVs just don't want to see that they are taking advantage of a very temporary situation that is only going to work for a very few, priviledged people.

      Of course not saying that we should just accept the status quo, but I think there are more urgent fields in which to invest to get there. Designing an EV with current technology is not hard anymore, at least if we accept their current limitations. Designing sustainable energy generation and storage solutions is. Basic project management principles teach you should address the hardest issues first. ;)
      Just my humble opinion of course. Expecting to read flaming comments. ;D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 19, 2018, 07:36:17 pm
      Agree mostly with the too high maintenance point. Not only is this a hassle, but it creates a dependency that may end up putting you at risk.
      That is true as well. If you can't charge at home from your own outlet and thus need to use a public charger in front of your house then you are basically screwed because you have to pay whatever the company which exploits it charges. I estimate a public charger costs around 10000 euro to install including all the overhead. Assuming it will be there for 10 years (*) you end up paying 1000 euros per year. To put that in perspective: in the Netherlands that almost buys you a year of health insurance. With a car on fuel (including Hydrogen) you can at least shop around and have some healthy competition between fuel providers.

      Free charging ain't going to be around forever. At some point companies need to recoup the money invested in the chargers.

      * By that time batteries which can be charged within 5 minutes may exist or EVs went away but either way the charging point may no longer be necessary and must have paid for itself.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on November 19, 2018, 09:38:12 pm
      May I ask you where you learned physics?   You have some interesting concepts that all break the law of physics.  Just wondering who is teaching this stuff?
      Please explain why the idea of adding a generator trailer breaks the law of physics. It has actually been done by DIYers. What's missing is commercial investment into that technology.


      Help me understand what it is you are trying to do by adding a generator trailor?  Are you thinking as the car travels down the road the generator will produce electricity to power the car as in a perpetual motion machine?  Yup, that violate the laws of physics.
      Don't be silly!

      There is no such thing as a "generator trailer" which gets its power from the wheel's rotation.
      Generator trailer means a generator driven by a ICE .
      This would provide electric power to either supply the actual motor requirements, or to recharge the EV batteries, or both.

      There would be an obvious increase in the amount of mechanical power needed to move the thing along the road, just like any trailer, but any reduction in range from that would be a small downside compared to the convenience of increasing the vehicle range.

      Ummm up until the mid 1950s all cars had generators.  Must not have been then sillily.

      Sorry, but all the generator in the car did, was to use a bit of the power available from the engine to charge the battery, which in turn was needed to run the electrical system.
      OK, in practice, the generator produced enough power to operate all that stuff, whilst the battery, once recharged ater starting the engine, was pretty much on a "float" charge.
      This is exactly what the alternator still does.

      What was "silly" was your "perpetual motion" comment----nobody expected the generator to use power from the EV, & then re-use the same power to drive it.
      In any normal use, a "Generator Trailer" is a "standalone" device which uses an internal combustion engine to drive a generator ( usually in real life, an alternator, but common usage still says "generator").

      TV stations use such things for OBs in places where Mains power is either not available or erratic.
      Campers use very small hand carried versions of the same thing.

      The idea being floated was to use a mid sized version, wired to the EV, to create a poor copy of a Hybrid.
      I don't think it is workable, either, but that has more to do with pure usability, rather than physical laws.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: glarsson on November 19, 2018, 09:44:21 pm
      The concept has been tested. During WW2 many cars were converted from petrol to wood gas. The gas generator was either mounted on the car or on a small generator trailer.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on November 19, 2018, 10:36:17 pm
      Really strange idea to put a stinking ICE behind an EV.
      It's much more practical to simply improve the range of most (non tesla)BEVs of today witn undersized battery and bad cooling and to get real fast charging near highways.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: glarsson on November 19, 2018, 10:46:56 pm
      Some manufacturers put a heavy stinking ICE INSIDE an EV!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on November 19, 2018, 10:59:56 pm
      Nice to see that emotion has no part in this discussion  ;).  Also good to know that eliminating range issues is just a matter of wanting it.  Wave your magic wand and get 3X battery capacity and/or ubiquitous high rate low cost charging stations. 

      Many engineers have bent their pick on this.  After over 100 years Tesla has finally gotten it good enough for some, but not all users by standing on the shoulders of giants and taking big risks.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on November 19, 2018, 11:18:25 pm
      Clearly the only fix is to install wireless charging coils underneath of solar roadways.

      Large trains use an ICE to drive a generator which then drives the electric motors.  The idea here is the ICE can stay within its most efficient operating range.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 19, 2018, 11:26:20 pm
      Clearly the only fix is to install wireless charging coils underneath of solar roadways.

      Large trains use an ICE to drive a generator which then drives the electric motors.  The idea here is the ICE can stay within its most efficient operating range.
      AFAIK that is not the reason. Electric motors allow better control over traction. Because the wheels on a train have much less friction towards the rails compared to tyres on a car pulling a train away is a much more delicate procedure. Also the amount of power involved would probably make a clutch or torque converter bulky and unreliable.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 20, 2018, 12:39:35 am
      - long trips require planning to find charging points,
      - long breaks (great if you like to eat bad food at restaurants along a highway) but they all like to pull away faster from the traffic light.
      - Most don't even mention the nuisance of needing to plug it in every time they get back at home.
      No it doesn't require planning. The car plans it all by itself. There are so many chargers that almost at any given point one is in reach. Many shopping centers have em now.
      Not long breaks. Drive 3 hours , go for pipi and a cup of coffee and move on. 20 to 30 minutes tops you off. You may want ot drive for more than 3 hours non stop but i like to stretch my legs. it actually makes road trips enjoyable.
      What nuisance ? put it in the garage and plug it in. What is the problem ? and it's not like you have to. I plug them in maybe one every two to 3 weeks at home. Otherwise i plug at shopping centers. Whenever we go for groceries , or we go for dinner somewhere :plug em there. When you come back the batteries are full.
      Read what you are writing: plug-in here, plug-in there, plug-in here, plug-in there, plug-in here, plug-in there. Always baby sitting the car! That just utterly sucks. Also there may be chargers where you are going but read this review: https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/ (https://www.autoweek.nl/reviews/artikel/volkswagen-e-golf-2018-4/) This guy had to borrow a car to go to Italy because there aren't enough chargers there. The UK and Belgium started to get challenging already for him and in eastern Europe it is even worse. Sure this isn't a problem in California but what if you'd want to go to Mexico for example? And how about making sure the hotel you are staying at has a charger which works?

      It is all way too much hassle.  Why the hell would I put up with that if I can buy a car on petrol which needs a fill in the morning and goes the entire day? My wife can drive too so our road trips usually look like this: I drive 2 hours, she drives 2 hours (nap time for me), I drive 1,5 hours and she drives 1,5 hours and we are where we want to be. Just pee and go again when changing drivers. Even including the pee breaks we often arrive ahead of the travel time the navigation system estimated. Sometimes we drive in the evening as well and if there is one thing you shouldn't do it is hanging around at a gas station when it is dark and quiet.

      Friend some people care about thei planet (air, food supply) and further generations.  Sure you might be incovineced on one of your trips if you have an electric car and need a charge, but in exchange you willl have clean air to breath, food to eat.  Maybe those things are not important to you, but for many people they are.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 20, 2018, 12:42:14 am
      Visited the Tesla showroom last night.  Trying to decide between a Tesla and Volt.  (Not sure what else to consider).  The Bavarian Money Wasters is out, as the BMW once the battery is depleted only runs on a gas engine at 40 MPH and has a couple gallons of fuel.  (How stupid is that.)

      Anyway Tesla had a big screen to show you how much the electricty would cost to charge the car.  (Very nice).  Bleeping A.  Using California/PG&E’s EV rate during peak hours it costs nearly $50 dollars to charge the car.  I just filled my truck/ICE and it was $50. 

      Now I realize that’s during peak hours, so during partial peak it’s $25 and off-peak it’s $12.  Imagine if a tank of gas cost $12 or $50 depending on when you purchase it. 

      So for Tesla and other EV owners when you take a long trip and have to charge how much are you charged?  (I have a Volt, so long trips just use gas.). But if i were to get an EV only car I’m wondering what the EV rates are.  I’ve never seen them posted at ChargePoint or other places.  I’m wondering if they Charging Stations charge as much or more than the equilivnet for gasoline?
      At San Diego State University they charge the students .70$/kW-hr. Here the on peak rate is .45. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 20, 2018, 01:01:41 am
      I just got on the Tesla travel planning site and on Google maps.  The trip is from Cisco TX to Albuquerque NM.  There is a fast charger at Cisco.  If I drive by Google it's 8 hours.  I would stop once for gas and have lunch. 

      The Tesla route goes up almost into Oklahoma and is an extra 60 miles.  Tesla says the trip is 11 hours.  Charging stops are 30+45+30 minutes per Tesla.  I assume this would be warm weather traveling.    Google thinks the drive on the Tesla route is 8:54.  Which gives a number almost the same as Tesla when you add the charging time. 

      This is a trip I make from time to time.  So by gas ~9 hours and ~11 hours bye EV.   

      For me driving around town would work I think with an EV.  But I would need a second car.  But for people who don't own a house and have to find a cheap apartment I would be concerned being able to charge at night.  I talked my son into a Volt because of that. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on November 20, 2018, 01:07:40 am
      here's a challenge.  The trip I make is from Columbus OH to Terra Alta WV.  Can I find chargers there?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 20, 2018, 01:35:47 am
      here's a challenge.  The trip I make is from Columbus OH to Terra Alta WV.  Can I find chargers there?
      The Tesla Ap says there is one 16.3km away at Haley Farm Inn and Retreat Center.  The trip is 4:13 and one charging stop of 10 minutes at Triadelphia, WV.  Not too bad. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 20, 2018, 01:39:02 am
      Read what you are writing: plug-in here, plug-in there, plug-in here, plug-in there, plug-in here, plug-in there. Always baby sitting the car!
      So what ? the car is parked anyway while i am shopping / restaurant . IT just sits there in the parking lot. All i have to do is plug in a cable when i get out. done.Not har dot do nor remember. And charging is free.( at least with my cars).

      Quote
      And how about making sure the hotel you are staying at has a charger which works?
      Many hotels have chargers. and again, if you have a tesla , even a 110 volt socket will do. You don't need special chargers, the car comes with a universal mobile charger. You can tap into anything. 110 volt 15 amp , 110 volt 20 amp , 240 volt 30 ,40 and 50 amp. or a J1772 plug. It eats anything and everything.

      I spent a long weekend at a cabin in the woods with only a 110v volt outlet. Overnight ( plug in at 8pm and charge until 8 am ) that gives me 50 miles of range. More than enough.
      it really is a non-issue.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 20, 2018, 01:50:19 am
      For most people living in urban areas, having their own individual charging spot is out of the question, and it's only going to get worse as urban areas get denser, which is the current trend that I don't see reversing in any foreseeable future.
      Most homes have a garage. most condominium / apartment complexes have assigned parking places. In your garage you have a power outlet.
      Apartment complexes can install chargers.

      It is up to legislature to mandate power outlets. In many area's of california it is now mandatory for new buildings (single family and multifamily dwellings to have
      - charger connection point ( pre-wiring : fiue and loadbox. you install the charger itself as that depends on the car. If you have a tesla you are set. no charge required just plug in to the nema 14-50
      - conduit running from loadpanel to the roof , sometimes pre-wired for future solar installation
      - certain areas make solar mandatory

      for remodeling that involves changing loadpanel : see above. you need to install an extra breaker pair and the outlet.
      The cost is minimal and it drives up the value of the house.

      Quote
      We just don't have the ability to generate that much electricity

      I see that. In Belgium they now have an 'afschakelplan'. Their power-plants are so aging that they can't supply enough power and they selectively will switch off power to certain municipalities and cities when needed. Welcome to almost 2019. Where the country that hosts the capital of the European union can't even guarantee enough power for its citizens... It's a disgrace ! they should fire ALL the European ministers responsible for that fiasco. Donating millions to provide help in africa so they can have power over there... and there's not enough in their own country. IDIOTS.

      Quote
      Current battery technologies also make use of materials that are not renewable
      Lithium cobalt cells are for almost 95% recyclable into new cells. There is very little filler in the packs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 20, 2018, 02:11:17 am
      Apartment complexes can install chargers.
      I'll have my son tell the land lord he has to install a charger.  Great idea. I'm sure it will work.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 20, 2018, 09:45:11 am
      Friend some people care about thei planet (air, food supply) and further generations.  Sure you might be incovineced on one of your trips if you have an electric car and need a charge, but in exchange you willl have clean air to breath, food to eat.  Maybe those things are not important to you, but for many people they are.
      Nobody cares. Really. The current numbers show that oil consumption will increase until 2040 and so will CO2 emissions.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on November 20, 2018, 10:31:28 am
      So for Tesla and other EV owners when you take a long trip and have to charge how much are you charged?  (I have a Volt, so long trips just use gas.). But if i were to get an EV only car I’m wondering what the EV rates are.  I’ve never seen them posted at ChargePoint or other places.  I’m wondering if they Charging Stations charge as much or more than the equilivnet for gasoline?
      At San Diego State University they charge the students .70$/kW-hr. Here the on peak rate is .45.

      Then an EV cost is 0.7[$/kWh]*20[kWh/100km] -> 14 $/100km, versus 1.35[$/litre]*7[litres/100km] -> 9 $/100km for a diesel ICE.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on November 20, 2018, 01:19:35 pm
      here's a challenge.  The trip I make is from Columbus OH to Terra Alta WV.  Can I find chargers there?
      The Tesla Ap says there is one 16.3km away at Haley Farm Inn and Retreat Center.  The trip is 4:13 and one charging stop of 10 minutes at Triadelphia, WV.  Not too bad.

      Ok, Triadelphia makes sense, near wheeling and along i70 so a lot of travelers.  Our farm is 1/2 way between Terra Alta and Rowlesburg, so the one in MD near Deep Creek is ~45 minutes away.  Maybe someday they will get one in the county.  We got our 5th stop light a few years ago when Walmart moved in and my parents recently got touch tone dialing on their phone.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 20, 2018, 01:41:00 pm
      Apartment complexes can install chargers.
      I'll have my son tell the land lord he has to install a charger.  Great idea. I'm sure it will work.
      Absolutely. Many states have legislation that forbids HOA's from blocking that. If it is an assigned space (common but exclusive use) they can tie it in to your meter. Problem solved. In other instances they make it a metered system where you pay directly at the charger . There is no cost to HOA then. But they can't block it.
      I happen to be a board member of an HOA. Submit architectural request, get city permit and licensed electrician and move on. took me 2 weeks. They installed a dedicated breaker and NEMA 14-40 outlet wired to my subpanel so it runs off my meter (i have exclusive use of my garage) . Done.

      California:
      " (a) Any covenant, restriction, or condition contained in any deed, contract, security instrument, or other instrument affecting the transfer or sale of any interest in a common interest development, and any provision of a governing document, as defined in subdivision (j) of Section 1351, that either effectively prohibits or unreasonably restricts the installation or use of an electric vehicle charging station in an owner’s designated parking space, including, but not limited to, a deeded parking space, a parking space in an owner’s exclusive use common area, or a parking space that is specifically designated for use by a particular owner, or is in conflict with the provisions of this section is void and unenforceable. "
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: IanMacdonald on November 20, 2018, 07:39:27 pm
      Friend some people care about thei planet (air, food supply) and further generations.  Sure you might be incovineced on one of your trips if you have an electric car and need a charge, but in exchange you willl have clean air to breath, food to eat.  Maybe those things are not important to you, but for many people they are.

      Vehicular pollution is a largely solved problem. The modern IC engine is vastly cleaner than that of half a century ago. The reason to keep the campaign going regardless is obvious, it keeps the funds flowing in to certain NGOs.

      Nevertheless, if there is a perceived need to reduce exhaust emissions below their already low levels, then the sensible approach would be a change of fuel to hydrogen, methane or maybe alcohols, all of which burn more cleanly than heavier hydrocarbons. The reason for the massive push toward battery cars with their impractically short range and problematic refuelling has more to do with vested interests within the 'green' NGOs promoting this policy to governments.  The vested interests likely include financial backing, however they also serve to promote the pipedream that one day, all energy will be supplied by wind turbines. Along with car owners being coerced providing a free Grid backup system by way of draining their batteries when the wind doesn't blow. Which, you can't do to hydrogen car owners.

      THAT is why the battery vehicles, and no other, more practical, type. The wind turbine pipedream MUST be made reality.  :horse:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 20, 2018, 07:55:07 pm
      Friend some people care about thei planet (air, food supply) and further generations.  Sure you might be incovineced on one of your trips if you have an electric car and need a charge, but in exchange you willl have clean air to breath, food to eat.  Maybe those things are not important to you, but for many people they are.

      Vehicular pollution is a largely solved problem. The modern IC engine is vastly cleaner than that of half a century ago. The reason to keep the campaign going regardless is obvious, it keeps the funds flowing in to certain NGOs.

      Nevertheless, if there is a perceived need to reduce exhaust emissions below their already low levels, then the sensible approach would be a change of fuel to hydrogen, methane or maybe alcohols, all of which burn more cleanly than heavier hydrocarbons. The reason for the massive push toward battery cars with their impractically short range and problematic refuelling has more to do with vested interests within the 'green' NGOs promoting this policy to governments.  The vested interests likely include financial backing, however they also serve to promote the pipedream that one day, all energy will be supplied by wind turbines. Along with car owners being coerced providing a free Grid backup system by way of draining their batteries when the wind doesn't blow. Which, you can't do to hydrogen car owners.

      THAT is why the battery vehicles, and no other, more practical, type. The wind turbine pipedream MUST be made reality.  :horse:

      Have you been sucking on an exhaust pipe?  Dude don't you know why Hydrogen comes from?  It's fossil fuels.  Try researncng your "soultions" before posting.  I posted a vidoe on the fesibility of Hyderogen carrs.  We just don't have the technology and theromodynamicly it's just net feasable.

      Exahst polution has no means a solved.  Compared to 50-50 years yss things are better.  but by no means have we solved them.  This is why it's called man caused climate chnage.

      Again do you want to be a good steward of our enviroment and leave it in "good" condition now and for futre generations?  Or are you just living for the moment and have no problem screwing your fellow man?





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 20, 2018, 08:18:39 pm
      At San Diego State University they charge the students .70$/kW-hr. Here the on peak rate is .45.

      Nice scare tactic; here are the real prices.  But the question really is, why charge at work, when you can do so at home for 0.12/kWh off-peak.


      San Diego State University - Parking Lot M
      Blink Members: $.49/KwHr - Guests: $.59/KwHr

      San Diego State University - P7
      $0.49/kWh Blink Member, $0.59/kWh Guest.

      San Diego State University - P2A
      DCFC: $0.59/kWh Blink Member, $0.69/kWh Guest.
      Level 2: $0.49/kWh Blink Member, $0.59/kWh Guest.

      San Diego State University - P3
      ChargePoint station is Free. Blink is $0.49/kWh for members, and $0.59/kWh for guests.

      San Diego State University - Children's Center
      $0.49/kWh Blink Member, $0.59/kWh Guest.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 20, 2018, 08:27:27 pm
      At San Diego State University they charge the students .70$/kW-hr. Here the on peak rate is .45.

      Nice scare tactic; here are the real prices.  But the question really is, why charge at work, when you can do so at home for 0.12/kWh off-peak.
      If you can't charge at home for example.  :palm: The world is bigger than your front lawn.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 20, 2018, 10:00:51 pm
      At San Diego State University they charge the students .70$/kW-hr. Here the on peak rate is .45.

      Nice scare tactic; here are the real prices.  But the question really is, why charge at work, when you can do so at home for 0.12/kWh off-peak.


      San Diego State University - Parking Lot M
      Blink Members: $.49/KwHr - Guests: $.59/KwHr

      San Diego State University - P7
      $0.49/kWh Blink Member, $0.59/kWh Guest.

      San Diego State University - P2A
      DCFC: $0.59/kWh Blink Member, $0.69/kWh Guest.
      Level 2: $0.49/kWh Blink Member, $0.59/kWh Guest.

      San Diego State University - P3
      ChargePoint station is Free. Blink is $0.49/kWh for members, and $0.59/kWh for guests.

      San Diego State University - Children's Center
      $0.49/kWh Blink Member, $0.59/kWh Guest.

      Wow.....  To charge a Tesla it would be over $50.  And I supect one has to pay for the parking as well.  I know at UC Davis one has to pay for parking, but charing is free.





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 20, 2018, 11:29:28 pm
      At San Diego State University they charge the students .70$/kW-hr. Here the on peak rate is .45.

      Nice scare tactic; here are the real prices.  But the question really is, why charge at work, when you can do so at home for 0.12/kWh off-peak.
      If you can't charge at home for example.  :palm: The world is bigger than your front lawn.

      :palm: exactly, the world is bigger than just the SD State Univ parking garages. There are plenty of other lower-cost alternatives in San Diego, OR you could charge at home. I would guess that  almost everyone living in the United States has access to some parking, somewhere near a regular wall outlet, which will allow you to put 60-80km (less than most people drive/day) into your car overnight.

      I have friends that own EVs and only use their 120V @ 10A regular outlet to charge it; I'm a little luckier as it was relatively easy to add a 240V / 30A in my garage.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: glue_ru on November 20, 2018, 11:45:13 pm
      unfortunely, producing electricity is not free nor entirely "green".  We have coal burning plants here to produce electric.
      Wind and solar have to be subsidized to break even.  Elon Musk stole our tax dollars and claims he is a billionaire, (with public funds).
      Many others could easily can run Telsa, Elon is just a stoned schmuck and I can't stand him.
      Electric is ok for city commuting and that, and it will get better. Fast swap batteries is the key for long trips.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: dr.diesel on November 21, 2018, 01:00:36 am
      Saw a Fisker Karma today, first EV I've seen in town to date.  (not including hybrids)

      We also got a Meijer recently, only charging station available, but I think it's Tesla only.

      Won't be the only one soon, my 1948 Crosley conversion is progressing well.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 21, 2018, 01:34:53 am
      Apartment complexes can install chargers.
      I'll have my son tell the land lord he has to install a charger.  Great idea. I'm sure it will work.
      So if your an owner you can install a charger.  Doesn't help my son who is a renter. 
      Absolutely. Many states have legislation that forbids HOA's from blocking that. If it is an assigned space (common but exclusive use) they can tie it in to your meter. Problem solved. In other instances they make it a metered system where you pay directly at the charger . There is no cost to HOA then. But they can't block it.
      I happen to be a board member of an HOA. Submit architectural request, get city permit and licensed electrician and move on. took me 2 weeks. They installed a dedicated breaker and NEMA 14-40 outlet wired to my subpanel so it runs off my meter (i have exclusive use of my garage) . Done.

      California:
      " (a) Any covenant, restriction, or condition contained in any deed, contract, security instrument, or other instrument affecting the transfer or sale of any interest in a common interest development, and any provision of a governing document, as defined in subdivision (j) of Section 1351, that either effectively prohibits or unreasonably restricts the installation or use of an electric vehicle charging station in an owner’s designated parking space, including, but not limited to, a deeded parking space, a parking space in an owner’s exclusive use common area, or a parking space that is specifically designated for use by a particular owner, or is in conflict with the provisions of this section is void and unenforceable. "
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 21, 2018, 12:57:48 pm
      At San Diego State University they charge the students .70$/kW-hr. Here the on peak rate is .45.

      Nice scare tactic; here are the real prices.  But the question really is, why charge at work, when you can do so at home for 0.12/kWh off-peak.
      If you can't charge at home for example.  :palm: The world is bigger than your front lawn.
      so because you can't charge at home ,  EV are inconvenient ..  :palm: The world is bigger than your home ...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 21, 2018, 01:02:08 pm

      So if your an owner you can install a charger.  Doesn't help my son who is a renter. 

      ah, yes. that may be a problem...

      Although, again in california, it is possible :

      https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1094117_in-ca-renters-can-now-install-electric-car-charging-stations (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1094117_in-ca-renters-can-now-install-electric-car-charging-stations)
      https://www.chargepoint.com/drivers/apartments-and-condos/ (https://www.chargepoint.com/drivers/apartments-and-condos/)
      https://www.kts-law.com/electric-vehicle-charging-stations-for-california-landlords/ (https://www.kts-law.com/electric-vehicle-charging-stations-for-california-landlords/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 21, 2018, 01:05:01 pm
      At San Diego State University they charge the students .70$/kW-hr. Here the on peak rate is .45.


      Nice scare tactic; here are the real prices.  But the question really is, why charge at work, when you can do so at home for 0.12/kWh off-peak.
      If you can't charge at home for example.  :palm: The world is bigger than your front lawn.
      so because you can't charge at home ,  EV are inconvenient ..  :palm: The world is bigger than your home ...
      What does a bigger world have to do with an impractical situation?  Maybe in 10 years that will change and charging in apartments may be better that's good.  But some people don't have time to sit in a parking lot and charge a car.  Work school life. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppercone2 on November 21, 2018, 01:58:03 pm
      i wonder how much power theft will result from electric vehicle propagation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on November 21, 2018, 02:23:09 pm
      This is the way it is now, a taxi in Barcelona searching for a free spot to recharge his EV:

      "The odissey to recharge my EV"
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oowhae2jO2E (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oowhae2jO2E)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 21, 2018, 06:41:42 pm
      At San Diego State University they charge the students .70$/kW-hr. Here the on peak rate is .45.

      Nice scare tactic; here are the real prices.  But the question really is, why charge at work, when you can do so at home for 0.12/kWh off-peak.
      If you can't charge at home for example.  :palm: The world is bigger than your front lawn.

      :palm: exactly, the world is bigger than just the SD State Univ parking garages. There are plenty of other lower-cost alternatives in San Diego, OR you could charge at home. I would guess that  everyone living in the United States has access to some parking, somewhere near a regular wall outlet, which will allow you to put 60-80km (less than most people drive/day) into your car overnight.

      I have friends that own EVs and only use their 120V @ 10A regular outlet to charge it; I'm a little luckier as it was relatively easy to add a 240V / 30A in my garage.

      If one drives an EV to school or work and can’t chage the batteries then doesn’t it defeat the purpose of purchasing an electric car? 

      I live in the US/California and have an EV.  I can’t always find a pace to charge.  Or I’ve seen long lines at charging stations.  So while you are are paining a rosey picture picture there are still many thorns.  So while things are slowly improving for greatly improving for EV owners let’s be honest.

      Place where I work just installed several hundred solar panels ay two separate sites.  Guess how many EV charging spaces they installed.  Zero. If I need to charge my car I have park and then walk 3 males to get to work,

      Just as the building of gas stations took 100 years, let’s hope with the helpf of governemental laws EV charginging stations will take substationaly less.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on November 21, 2018, 08:41:49 pm
      And when you leave your car at the charging spot, you've got to come back 1/2 an hour later to remove it. At least in Barcelona, that's what the taxi driver says.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on November 24, 2018, 01:39:08 pm
      Is the taxi driver in an ICE car? What's he pay for gas and maintenance?
      When I hear of Tesla battery life being in the 300,000 miles of life, it is taxi companies.

      Unless you are going on a long trip, your Tesla is charged overnight at home. If a long trip superchargers are within range now anywhere in the USA, plus destination chargers everywhere.

      Tesla built out the charging network (gas stations) early on.

      I use 2 outlets to get 13 amps at 220 volts in my garage. I never had the 50 amp 240 outlet put in, have the wire and stuff for 2 years, waiting to have other house upgrades.

      The first few months we had the car I just plugged it into a 120v outlet.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 24, 2018, 04:10:44 pm
      Still charging adds hours to a long trip  :palm: Tesla didn't solve the long charging times.

      BTW it seems the production of Cobalt needs to be increased a lot otherwise production of batteries can't be expanded (even if new batteries are invented which need much less Cobalt). The effects may show as early as 2020 and could bring the EV adoption (if there is even going to be one) to a grinding halt.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 24, 2018, 05:21:41 pm
      BTW it seems the production of Cobalt needs to be increased a lot otherwise production of batteries can't be expanded (even if new batteries are invented which need much less Cobalt). The effects may show as early as 2020 and could bring the EV adoption (if there is even going to be one) to a grinding halt.

      Or might not and greatly increase the adoption of EV cars. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 24, 2018, 05:26:15 pm
      BTW it seems the production of Cobalt needs to be increased a lot otherwise production of batteries can't be expanded (even if new batteries are invented which need much less Cobalt). The effects may show as early as 2020 and could bring the EV adoption (if there is even going to be one) to a grinding halt.
      Or might not and greatly increase the adoption of EV cars.
      No, Cobalt shortage is a real thing. The price went up by several hundred percent over the past couple of years. Currently over 60% of the world's production comes from Congo. Google it. Sure most car manufacturers will say they secured a supply but if some Congelese war lord is deciding to sell to the highest bidder then they are screwed. And good luck trying to sue a Congelese war lord.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on November 24, 2018, 07:09:16 pm
      Not all EV batteries use cobalt - in fact regular lithium cobalt is not a very good choice for an EV due to its flammability. (Tesla somehow tweaked the chemistry to be less flammable.) For example, the Nissan Leaf uses lithium manganese.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 24, 2018, 09:15:54 pm
      Not all EV batteries use cobalt - in fact regular lithium cobalt is not a very good choice for an EV due to its flammability. (Tesla somehow tweaked the chemistry to be less flammable.) For example, the Nissan Leaf uses lithium manganese.
      It seems the truth is in the middle. Lithium manganese seem the have 33% less capacity compared to Cobalt based batteries. According to this article most Li-ion batteries use Cobalt in combination with Nickel and Manganese to get optimal performance:
      https://batteryuniversity.com/index.php/learn/article/types_of_lithium_ion (https://batteryuniversity.com/index.php/learn/article/types_of_lithium_ion)

      From an interview with Tesla it seems it will be difficult to get rid of Cobalt at all:
      https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/21/17488626/elon-musk-cobalt-electric-vehicle-battery-science (https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/21/17488626/elon-musk-cobalt-electric-vehicle-battery-science)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on November 24, 2018, 11:26:09 pm
      Sure most car manufacturers will say they secured a supply but if some Congelese war lord is deciding to sell to the highest bidder then they are screwed. And good luck trying to sue a Congelese war lord.

      That depends what you mean with secure. Western companies secure with contracts, China secures with a private military force.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 24, 2018, 11:35:59 pm
      Sure most car manufacturers will say they secured a supply but if some Congelese war lord is deciding to sell to the highest bidder then they are screwed. And good luck trying to sue a Congelese war lord.
      That depends what you mean with secure. Western companies secure with contracts, China secures with a private military force.
      Well then explain what a contract is worth to a Congolese war lord. If a supplier has no supply then they can't deliver. Even with hefty fines for breach of contract the car manufacturer may still be left with no batteries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on November 25, 2018, 02:15:46 am
      China simply hires one of the warlords to shoot at all the others, still might go wrong ... but you're not relying on a non existent rule of law at least.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on November 25, 2018, 02:46:21 am
      Uh huh. It takes some pragmatism and a pinch of wisdom to both act responsibly and have a strategic vision.

      No amount of "securing" will help long-term supply when you're dealing with countries that are potentially uncontrollable and highly unpredictable. Local governments accepting bribery - do you really think they can be trusted to begin with? Conversely, they may themselves have many reasons not to trust us either. Having to eventually resort to military force to get the raw materials we need isn't necessarily very pretty either, nor a stable supply model.

      Claming that the supply is secured may work for short-minded investors, but I think it's very far from being secured for the time being.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on November 25, 2018, 05:15:19 am
      Well if you're really pragmatic you can do it old school ... fly in some mercenaries and install a new government every time the old one gets out of line. It doesn't take a whole lot of disciplined well trained troops to topple an African government.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 25, 2018, 08:20:34 am
      Well if you're really pragmatic you can do it old school ... fly in some mercenaries and install a new government every time the old one gets out of line. It doesn't take a whole lot of disciplined well trained troops to topple an African government.
      As if that strategy worked in the middle east  :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: MadScientist on November 25, 2018, 09:28:23 am
      Year over year ICE auto sales turned down in September (https://ycharts.com/indicators/auto_sales) (usually the strongest month). Historically, this has been a harbinger of coming recession.  Meanwhile EV sales have continued to grow at a rapid rate.

      Overall, 1st world ICE auto sales have been relatively flat for the past 20 years (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA).  However when you add in the developing world (esp China) there has been modest growth.

      In all cases - over the past few years, EV sales growth has far,far surpassed ICE sales growth (if any).

      My prediction is that ICE auto sales will continue to stagnate while EV sales growth continues its exponential growth pattern. Eventually, in 20 years or so we'll be in a place where the large majority of auto sales will be EVs though overall total auto sales will never again reach current levels. Globally, the economy is peaking.

      It's easier to go from selling, say, 10 thousand cars a year to 40 thousand cars a year, wow, 400% growth! But that's just 30 thousand more cars. OTOH "stagnated" at 3.1% year to year growth when you're selling 79 million cars a year, that's 2.5 million more on top of that 79 millions:

      https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/)

      PEVs are (5.4e6) still less than 0.4% of the total (1.3e9), and most of that 0.4% are hybrids, thus ICEs anyway, not BEVs.

      Hybrids are the only way they're managing to push EVs down our throats, other than forbidding ICEs which seems to be on the agenda of the dummies that rule us, or so it seems.

      In Ireland , where diesel reigns supreme , we have a small but increasing EV population largely incentivized by some purchase tax breaks .  The percentage of BEVs is twice that of plug in hybrids , which are largely a waste of money ( the punters never return the extra cost of purchase n fuel savings )

      I drive a 30 kWh Leaf and will most likely upgrade to the 60 kWh 200bhp version next year , living on an island where nearly all single journeys are under 200km and many are well under 100km, EVs will in the next few years largely suffice    for all journeys and will not require any public charging , my own view is that public charging will be confined to major transport routes will large capacity multi station charging facilities , that will be quite expensive to access

      There s no doubt that once you drive an EV , you never want to go back to the 19th century bag of boots that is an ICE car.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on November 25, 2018, 09:44:40 am
      There s no doubt that once you drive an EV , you never want to go back to the 19th century bag of boots that is an ICE car.

      YMMV, I have a BEV too but most often choose to drive my diesel ICE.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: IanMacdonald on November 25, 2018, 03:07:20 pm
      This is the way it is now, a taxi in Barcelona searching for a free spot to recharge his EV:

      I could see this being like flying in IMC You'd need to allow maybe double the range you actually want to travel, because you may not be able to 'land' when you get there!  |O
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 25, 2018, 04:18:16 pm
      There s no doubt that once you drive an EV , you never want to go back to the 19th century bag of boots that is an ICE car.

      YMMV, I have a BEV too but most often choose to drive my diesel ICE.

      Why do you drive you prefer to drive your diesel over BEV?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 27, 2018, 06:22:02 am
      Tesla car charging woes.   
      In Silicon Valley are Tesla car sales have done well, but there’s a problem.  Tesla has not installed enough fast charging stations to meet current demand.  It’s not uncommon for folks to have to wait 4 hours for a charge.

      And in Marin County, one of the wealthiest counties in the country there is a Tesla showroom.  But here’s the catch if you buy a Tesla.....  There are no fast charging stations in all of Marin county.

      People are questioning if they should by a Tesla if they can’t get it charged.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 27, 2018, 06:38:42 am
      This is the way it is now, a taxi in Barcelona searching for a free spot to recharge his EV:

      I could see this being like flying in IMC You'd need to allow maybe double the range you actually want to travel, because you may not be able to 'land' when you get there!  |O

      The really stupid argument here is that an electric car stops in exactly the same way when it runs out of charge, that an ICE car does when it runs out of fuel. Just that right now there are a few more public places to get fuel.

      As for aircraft, you rarely would be carrying "twice the fuel" you needed, unless it was a very very short flight.
      Fuel Required (general aviation):  (Origin -> Destination -> missed approach, divert to alternate + 45 mins)

      Unlike aviation though, cars don't create life threatening situations when they run out of fuel.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 27, 2018, 06:50:54 am
      The median commute distance in Canada is 7.7km ea way, or let's call that 16km/day.  An EV typically will get better than 20kWh/100km, or perhaps 3.2kWh of energy.

      As most cars are parked overnight in a garage/carport/alongside house/apartment, I'd like to introduce my complete solution for at least 50% of the population when it comes to charging, to provide
      a minimum of 1kW of charge, or the median commute in just 3.2 hours.  Just imagine with a typical overnight parking of 12-16 hours you too could have FOUR times what you need in terms of EV charging, without lining up at public facilities.

      I call it "The Regular Wall Outlet" (may vary by jurisdiction - EU and AU versions are even faster than NA versions)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 27, 2018, 06:58:04 am
      And what if live in an apparent building where there is no wall outlet where the car is parked?  A land lord is not inclined to install outlet in every parking space for renters.  Only place renters can charge is at work or a public charging station..... but the wait can take up to 4 hours.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on November 27, 2018, 09:38:36 am
      The really stupid argument here is that an electric car stops in exactly the same way when it runs out of charge, that an ICE car does when it runs out of fuel. Just that right now there are a few more public places to get fuel.

      There are less, and on top of that it takes a lot longer to refill. And the more EVs there are, it will only get worse. And you keep saying it's cheap thanks to night tariffs, but you won't have those at the charging spots.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 27, 2018, 12:01:27 pm
      This is the way it is now, a taxi in Barcelona searching for a free spot to recharge his EV:
      I could see this being like flying in IMC You'd need to allow maybe double the range you actually want to travel, because you may not be able to 'land' when you get there!  |O
      The really stupid argument here is that an electric car stops in exactly the same way when it runs out of charge, that an ICE car does when it runs out of fuel. Just that right now there are a few more public places to get fuel.
      That is not a stupid argument. With an ICE car you'd also be wise to not drive around with a nearly empty fuel tank. Even in Germany there can be over 100km between gas stations and there may be a traffic jam, the gas station may be closed, a detour, etc. Still with an ICE car you are back on the road again with a full tank in 5 minutes ready to drive another 700km.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ljwinkler on November 27, 2018, 12:12:09 pm
      This is the way it is now, a taxi in Barcelona searching for a free spot to recharge his EV:
      I could see this being like flying in IMC You'd need to allow maybe double the range you actually want to travel, because you may not be able to 'land' when you get there!  |O
      The really stupid argument here is that an electric car stops in exactly the same way when it runs out of charge, that an ICE car does when it runs out of fuel. Just that right now there are a few more public places to get fuel.
      That is not a stupid argument. With an ICE car you'd also be wise to not drive around with a nearly empty fuel tank. Even in Germany there can be over 100km between gas stations and there may be a traffic jam, the gas station may be closed, a detour, etc. Still with an ICE car you are back on the road again with a full tank in 5 minutes ready to drive another 700km.

      And you can ask a colleague to bring you 5l of fuel in a can... or you can have a spare 20l canister in your car. At the minute you can't do this with batteries, not even having a full boot of 2AAs :)

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLC3lryWrjQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLC3lryWrjQ)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on November 27, 2018, 12:38:27 pm
      I don't need a supercharger here, although there are a few in range of my small "tank".  Anyone buying a full EV will charge it at home overnight.

      My S has more range every morning than my Honda Element of surprise with a full tank.

      Real women don't pump gas, wife loves not having to 'go' to a gas station all the time.
           If you are a taxi company, I would get the longest range battery car to start with, and enjoy the lack of maintenance.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: richard.cs on November 27, 2018, 12:55:09 pm
      And you can ask a colleague to bring you 5l of fuel in a can... or you can have a spare 20l canister in your car. At the minute you can't do this with batteries, not even having a full boot of 2AAs :)
      That depends rather on the car and how empty you ran it. Many diesels and modern (i.e. newer than about 1990) petrol cars need air bleeding from the fuel system before they'll restart if they were run to stopping. That's not an especially easy roadside task, and not one I'd expect the average driver to perform. Cranking it until the battery is dead then phoning the AA seems to be the more common response.  :P
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on November 27, 2018, 01:35:43 pm
      The median commute distance in Canada is 7.7km ea way, or let's call that 16km/day.  An EV typically will get better than 20kWh/100km, or perhaps 3.2kWh of energy.

      As most cars are parked overnight in a garage/carport/alongside house/apartment, I'd like to introduce my complete solution for at least 50% of the population when it comes to charging, to provide
      a minimum of 1kW of charge, or the median commute in just 3.2 hours.  Just imagine with a typical overnight parking of 12-16 hours you too could have FOUR times what you need in terms of EV charging, without lining up at public facilities.

      I call it "The Regular Wall Outlet" (may vary by jurisdiction - EU and AU versions are even faster than NA versions)
      what happens when someone in your apartment complex unplugs your car so they can charge their iphone and then you wake up the next morning to a low battery?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on November 28, 2018, 08:08:39 am
      The median commute distance in Canada is 7.7km ea way, or let's call that 16km/day.  An EV typically will get better than 20kWh/100km, or perhaps 3.2kWh of energy.

      As most cars are parked overnight in a garage/carport/alongside house/apartment, I'd like to introduce my complete solution for at least 50% of the population when it comes to charging, to provide
      a minimum of 1kW of charge, or the median commute in just 3.2 hours.  Just imagine with a typical overnight parking of 12-16 hours you too could have FOUR times what you need in terms of EV charging, without lining up at public facilities.

      I call it "The Regular Wall Outlet" (may vary by jurisdiction - EU and AU versions are even faster than NA versions)
      what happens when someone in your apartment complex unplugs your car so they can charge their iphone and then you wake up the next morning to a low battery?
      Violence?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 28, 2018, 09:01:42 am
      Or not but either way the EV owner will be very late at work because it will take way too long to charge. A similar scenario is not plugging the EV in properly or the charging isn't started for some reason so the EV isn't charged in the morning.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Red Squirrel on November 28, 2018, 12:48:57 pm
      The median commute distance in Canada is 7.7km ea way, or let's call that 16km/day.  An EV typically will get better than 20kWh/100km, or perhaps 3.2kWh of energy.

      As most cars are parked overnight in a garage/carport/alongside house/apartment, I'd like to introduce my complete solution for at least 50% of the population when it comes to charging, to provide
      a minimum of 1kW of charge, or the median commute in just 3.2 hours.  Just imagine with a typical overnight parking of 12-16 hours you too could have FOUR times what you need in terms of EV charging, without lining up at public facilities.

      I call it "The Regular Wall Outlet" (may vary by jurisdiction - EU and AU versions are even faster than NA versions)
      what happens when someone in your apartment complex unplugs your car so they can charge their iphone and then you wake up the next morning to a low battery?

      The car will still have charge left and you just make sure to charge it the next day or at work that day.  People always talk as if you're going to run the battery down to zero every day.   With a typical EV having a 100km+ range a single charge should last several days to a good week for general commuting.  Of course it's still good to try to keep it topped up most of the time as you need extra power to run the heater and de-icer etc.   But if the charge is running low you'd probably just sacrifice that and get in and go.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 28, 2018, 03:35:39 pm
      The median commute distance in Canada is 7.7km ea way, or let's call that 16km/day.  An EV typically will get better than 20kWh/100km, or perhaps 3.2kWh of energy.

      As most cars are parked overnight in a garage/carport/alongside house/apartment, I'd like to introduce my complete solution for at least 50% of the population when it comes to charging, to provide
      a minimum of 1kW of charge, or the median commute in just 3.2 hours.  Just imagine with a typical overnight parking of 12-16 hours you too could have FOUR times what you need in terms of EV charging, without lining up at public facilities.

      I call it "The Regular Wall Outlet" (may vary by jurisdiction - EU and AU versions are even faster than NA versions)
      what happens when someone in your apartment complex unplugs your car so they can charge their iphone and then you wake up the next morning to a low battery?



      it's Canada . eh ?  who would sit outside charging their phone in the snow ?
      Civilized snowy countries like Canada and Finland and Norway have block-heater outlets in every parking stall of every parking lot. Simply plug in there.
      a 220volt 10 amp circuit gives you 2.2kw per hour. plug in from 8 in the evening till 8 in the morning. that gives you 24 kw.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: cdev on November 28, 2018, 04:27:38 pm
      Increased reliance on electricity for heating and cooking would be a predictable outcome if the end user price of natural gas doubles or more.

      That could cause a shift to electricity which would require more electric power generation capacity in the winters, especially, than current power systems may be able to deliver. However, if (EV charging) fits within the power budget already allocated for block heaters as detailed in the previous post, (if such a budget already exists) the problem is already solved. If not people should figure in the extra power needs, which could be substantial.

      In places where block heaters are not in common use, there may be a rise in electric power demand in the winter- which by default would be most in demand in the evenings, after people get home from work or play and turn up the heat and lighting for dinner, etc. (right after plugging their EVs into the wall outlet or gas using or hybrid cars into the block heater.)

      If people are relying more on electricity for heat (because of pricing increases of LNG) at the same times as they are depending on charging EVs for transport, we may need to install timers that default to staggering EV charging later into the evenings after people have gone to sleep- when they need less electricity for other uses like heating and cooking and video streaming, etc.

      That is probably a good idea regardless. Those timers should have an override available, as well as some kind of quick charge mode, too.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on November 28, 2018, 04:29:54 pm
      The median commute distance in Canada is 7.7km ea way, or let's call that 16km/day.  An EV typically will get better than 20kWh/100km, or perhaps 3.2kWh of energy.

      As most cars are parked overnight in a garage/carport/alongside house/apartment, I'd like to introduce my complete solution for at least 50% of the population when it comes to charging, to provide
      a minimum of 1kW of charge, or the median commute in just 3.2 hours.  Just imagine with a typical overnight parking of 12-16 hours you too could have FOUR times what you need in terms of EV charging, without lining up at public facilities.

      I call it "The Regular Wall Outlet" (may vary by jurisdiction - EU and AU versions are even faster than NA versions)
      what happens when someone in your apartment complex unplugs your car so they can charge their iphone and then you wake up the next morning to a low battery?



      it's Canada . eh ?  who would sit outside charging their phone in the snow ?
      Civilized snowy countries like Canada and Finland and Norway have block-heater outlets in every parking stall of every parking lot. Simply plug in there.
      a 220volt 10 amp circuit gives you 2.2kw per hour. plug in from 8 in the evening till 8 in the morning. that gives you 24 kw.

      Letting your wishes overcome reality isn't the engineering way.  I googled pictures of Canadian, Finnish and Norwegian parking lots with the following results.  I didn't see block heater outlets in the vast majority of the Canadian images.  They did exist in many, but appear to be less than half of the Finnish and Norwegian images.

      I then looked at the Canadian Parking Lot Associations standards.  Saw no mention of electric power.  Lots of things like safety, customer service and the like.

      The fact is that while electric cars are practical (and indeed the best choice) for a great many people, there are also a great many people with real barriers to their use.  Add those real barriers to the various psychological barriers and electric cars will not instantly take over the market.  This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.  Practical gasoline cars were available before the turn of the twentieth century, but they didn't dominate transportation everywhere for a couple of decades, and even today you find places and people who use horses.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 28, 2018, 07:17:09 pm
      The median commute distance in Canada is 7.7km ea way, or let's call that 16km/day.  An EV typically will get better than 20kWh/100km, or perhaps 3.2kWh of energy.

      As most cars are parked overnight in a garage/carport/alongside house/apartment, I'd like to introduce my complete solution for at least 50% of the population when it comes to charging, to provide
      a minimum of 1kW of charge, or the median commute in just 3.2 hours.  Just imagine with a typical overnight parking of 12-16 hours you too could have FOUR times what you need in terms of EV charging, without lining up at public facilities.

      I call it "The Regular Wall Outlet" (may vary by jurisdiction - EU and AU versions are even faster than NA versions)
      what happens when someone in your apartment complex unplugs your car so they can charge their iphone and then you wake up the next morning to a low battery?

      Given I have never ever heard of someone's block heater being unplugged, I would expect the occurrence of that to be similar to "someone siphoned off all of my fuel from my tank" (which I have heard of, but for arguments sake we'll say the two are similar). Also, who goes outside to charge their iphone

      I am stunned at the depths people will go to, to try and invent scenarios as to why electric car = bad.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on November 28, 2018, 07:25:10 pm
      Well that is the reaction you get when you try to sell lemons like they are strawberries. You seem to be relentlessly looking for justification for your purchase and are completely blind for the fact you bought a lemon. But don't worry, after being fed up with your e-Golf you can trade it in for an ICE based car and never have to bother with finding chargers and plugging it in everywhere you go. And no more fights over chargers with other people who think they got there first, have more urgent matters or you have been charging long enough already. The financial loss will hopefully be worth not having the hassle any more.

      One of the first hits on Google about 'charge rage' which is about people unplugging other people's EV to have theirs charged first:
      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10592660/Charge-Rage-electric-car-owners-get-angry-after-having-vehicles-unplugged.html (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10592660/Charge-Rage-electric-car-owners-get-angry-after-having-vehicles-unplugged.html)
      https://www.carkeys.co.uk/news/increasing-number-of-electric-car-drivers-falling-victim-to-charge-rage (https://www.carkeys.co.uk/news/increasing-number-of-electric-car-drivers-falling-victim-to-charge-rage)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Red Squirrel on November 28, 2018, 07:37:27 pm
      Increased reliance on electricity for heating and cooking would be a predictable outcome if the end user price of natural gas doubles or more.

      That could cause a shift to electricity which would require more electric power generation capacity in the winters, especially, than current power systems may be able to deliver. However, if (EV charging) fits within the power budget already allocated for block heaters as detailed in the previous post, (if such a budget already exists) the problem is already solved. If not people should figure in the extra power needs, which could be substantial.

      In places where block heaters are not in common use, there may be a rise in electric power demand in the winter- which by default would be most in demand in the evenings, after people get home from work or play and turn up the heat and lighting for dinner, etc. (right after plugging their EVs into the wall outlet or gas using or hybrid cars into the block heater.)

      If people are relying more on electricity for heat (because of pricing increases of LNG) at the same times as they are depending on charging EVs for transport, we may need to install timers that default to staggering EV charging later into the evenings after people have gone to sleep- when they need less electricity for other uses like heating and cooking and video streaming, etc.

      That is probably a good idea regardless. Those timers should have an override available, as well as some kind of quick charge mode, too.

      With the cost of hydro they have no excuse to not be able to keep up with demands.  The infrastructure is essentially free to them as no matter how little you use you're still paying around $100 per month in fixed fees such as delivery charge. It would be like paying your local pizza stores a delivery fee every day even if you don't order pizza.  When you do order pizza it better be damn good!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 28, 2018, 07:41:13 pm
      Increased reliance on electricity for heating and cooking would be a predictable outcome if the end user price of natural gas doubles or more.

      That could cause a shift to electricity which would require more electric power generation capacity in the winters, especially, than current power systems may be able to deliver. However, if (EV charging) fits within the power budget already allocated for block heaters as detailed in the previous post, (if such a budget already exists) the problem is already solved. If not people should figure in the extra power needs, which could be substantial.

      In places where block heaters are not in common use, there may be a rise in electric power demand in the winter- which by default would be most in demand in the evenings, after people get home from work or play and turn up the heat and lighting for dinner, etc. (right after plugging their EVs into the wall outlet or gas using or hybrid cars into the block heater.)

      If people are relying more on electricity for heat (because of pricing increases of LNG) at the same times as they are depending on charging EVs for transport, we may need to install timers that default to staggering EV charging later into the evenings after people have gone to sleep- when they need less electricity for other uses like heating and cooking and video streaming, etc.

      That is probably a good idea regardless. Those timers should have an override available, as well as some kind of quick charge mode, too.

      I would guess a block heater would pull alot less power then an EV charging. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on November 28, 2018, 09:08:22 pm
      Well that is the reaction you get when you try to sell lemons like they are strawberries. You seem to be relentlessly looking for justification for your purchase and are completely blind for the fact you bought a lemon. But don't worry, after being fed up with your e-Golf you can trade it in for an ICE based car and never have to bother with finding chargers and plugging it in everywhere you go. And no more fights over chargers with other people who think they got there first, have more urgent matters or you have been charging long enough already. The financial loss will hopefully be worth not having the hassle any more.

      One of the first hits on Google about 'charge rage' which is about people unplugging other people's EV to have theirs charged first:
      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10592660/Charge-Rage-electric-car-owners-get-angry-after-having-vehicles-unplugged.html (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10592660/Charge-Rage-electric-car-owners-get-angry-after-having-vehicles-unplugged.html)
      https://www.carkeys.co.uk/news/increasing-number-of-electric-car-drivers-falling-victim-to-charge-rage (https://www.carkeys.co.uk/news/increasing-number-of-electric-car-drivers-falling-victim-to-charge-rage)

      Weirdly, no one has ever broken into my garage an unplugged anything, let alone the locked charging cable (yes it locks in when the car is locked). 

      As I have explained many many times, shown numbers etc etc, it is 1/8th the cost to operate my electric car, vs the same thing in ICE. The price premium of the vehicle will be paid for in approx 50,000km at current petroleum/electricity rates (and I've never owned a vehicle for less than 130,000km). The payback will be much much faster if/when the electricity utility starts with overnight pricing too (we pay fixed rates).

      Perhaps it doesn't work in your jurisdiction, or your personal situation, but you seem to have a "if it doesn't work for me, it can't possibly work for anyone" attitude, which is not really in line with this being an engineering fact-based forum.

      Can you offer anything other than #alternativefacts to suggest why you think we purchasing an EV is a lemon for everyone in the world?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on November 29, 2018, 12:48:12 pm
      Tesla recently reduced their parts cost an released exploded view parts list.
      "Someone" deleted the right side passenger mirror on the garage rail. I think she ignores the red flashes and alarms of close objects. Glad occupation is not airline pilot :)

      In horror, I was thinking arggh, another 750 dollar mirror incident is what the Nissan Altima repair cost a few years ago. This time I didn't have to repair that again.

      Downloaded the BOM, and picked just the heated and LCD dimming part. Cracked part I can order if I botch patching it.

      Took a couple days from factory to showroom in Mass. Then another day to here in Maine.

      Cost 125.00 from factory, and never got a bill and if not for a cracked "skull cap" fixed in minutes.
      Waiting for some UV curing glue (going to research other's experience with it on EEV). to patch it up, otherwise plenty on Ebay for $70.00 or so.

      Car goes together like Lego's so things just snapped back in place, like dislocated shoulder.

      Interesting: I wasn't sure if we had the auto dim on the outside mirrors, then saw tiny bubbles around the cracks. LCD is almost turpentine, isn't it?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on November 29, 2018, 04:51:14 pm
      Practical gasoline cars were available before the turn of the twentieth century, but they didn't dominate transportation everywhere for a couple of decades, and even today you find places and people who use horses.

      funny... the first cars were electric...  and then some clever guy found black stuff bubbling from the earth that happened to be flammable and thought : i can make money off that...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 29, 2018, 06:39:09 pm

      funny... the first cars were electric...  and then some clever guy found black stuff bubbling from the earth that happened to be flammable and thought : i can make money off that...

      Friend you are making up history. 
      THe first "car" was an ECE/External Compustion Engine or steam powered, 1769.
      It was 50-60 years later for an electric vehicle and production wasn't until around 1880s.

      The black stuff bubbling from the ground had been used for thousnads of years and was used by the Native Americans.


      Not sure if you know but when crude oil was originally refined gasoline in the late 1800s it was considered a wate product and just dumped into streams to get rid of it.

      Ford and Edison were working on electic cars.  In the late 1800s/early 1900s it was a three way reace between ICE, EXE and EV.  Consumers are the ones who decided EXE's wern't the answer eventhough steam had powered the industrial revolution for over 100 years.  Took 25-30 years for consumers to pull the plug on EVs.






      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 29, 2018, 07:00:02 pm
      Anyone know about the FIRST Tesla electric car, a 1931 Pierce-Arrow Nikola converted to be all eclectic.  And the best part....  It don't have any batteries so no need for charging stations.  Acording to Tesla if ran on the energy from the universe.  That same energy he claimed could power the world.

      If only Elon had Tesla's orgininal car we would all be driving aound in electrica cars powered by the universe.








      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 29, 2018, 11:03:27 pm
      Anyone know about the FIRST Tesla electric car, a 1931 Pierce-Arrow Nikola converted to be all eclectic.  And the best part....  It don't have any batteries so no need for charging stations.  Acording to Tesla if ran on the energy from the universe.  That same energy he claimed could power the world.

      If only Elon had Tesla's orgininal car we would all be driving aound in electrica cars powered by the universe.
      Reference?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on November 30, 2018, 03:28:44 am
      Anyone know about the FIRST Tesla electric car, a 1931 Pierce-Arrow Nikola converted to be all eclectic.  And the best part....  It don't have any batteries so no need for charging stations.  Acording to Tesla if ran on the energy from the universe.  That same energy he claimed could power the world.

      If only Elon had Tesla's orgininal car we would all be driving aound in electrica cars powered by the universe.

      Nikola Tesla was pretty much "round the bend" by that time, claiming all sorts of nonsense.
      Shame, as it detracts from his real achievements in the perfecting & application of polyphase AC.
       (He didn't invent it, neither did he make a radio system which was useable in any practical sense)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 30, 2018, 03:39:35 am
      Anyone know about the FIRST Tesla electric car, a 1931 Pierce-Arrow Nikola converted to be all eclectic.  And the best part....  It don't have any batteries so no need for charging stations.  Acording to Tesla if ran on the energy from the universe.  That same energy he claimed could power the world.

      If only Elon had Tesla's orgininal car we would all be driving aound in electrica cars powered by the universe.
      Reference?

      In 1931, so the story goes, Tesla took his nephew to a garage in Buffalo, New York, and showed him a modified Pierce-Arrow automobile. The car’s ‘cosmic energy power receiver’ – a black box with 12 vacuum tubes – was connected to a long antenna.

      The car was said to have been driven for about 80 km at speeds of up to 140 km/h during an eight-day road test. Tesla allegedly said the device would power the car forever, and also supply the needs of a household “with power to spare”.

      It is a fact that in 1898 Tesla filed a patent for a “method of and apparatus for controlling mechanism of moving vessels or vehicles”.

      https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/did-nikola-tesla-build-a-revolutionary-electric-car


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 30, 2018, 03:51:12 am
      Anyone know about the FIRST Tesla electric car, a 1931 Pierce-Arrow Nikola converted to be all eclectic.  And the best part....  It don't have any batteries so no need for charging stations.  Acording to Tesla if ran on the energy from the universe.  That same energy he claimed could power the world.

      If only Elon had Tesla's orgininal car we would all be driving aound in electrica cars powered by the universe.

      Nikola Tesla was pretty much "round the bend" by that time, claiming all sorts of nonsense.
      Shame, as it detracts from his real achievements in the perfecting & application of polyphase AC.
       (He didn't invent it, neither did he make a radio system which was useable in any practical sense)

      Extrodanary claims, need extrodanary proof. 

      Around this time in Tesla’s life he claimed he was telepathically communication with people on Mars.  (Around this time the canals on Mars were reported discovered.).  Tesla was broke at this time and was trying to get investors to Give home money for his research projects.  The thing is, Tesla wasn’t really doing any research at this time.  Tesla was loved throwing lavish swag parties with lot women and drink.

      Tesla (late in his life)  like ELon Musk made a lot of claims which defy the laws of physics.  Elon’s electric semi-trucks and trains come to mind.  This is not to say Elon like Tesla has not been brilliant so far.

      What I would like to learn more about is the Edison/Ford partnership for building an electric car.  What happened?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on November 30, 2018, 02:19:56 pm
      What I would like to learn more about is the Edison/Ford partnership for building an electric car.  What happened?

      In a nutshell, what happened is that gasoline cars were better. And still are, today. Jay Leno has a vidjeo of an electric car of that time in youtube.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on November 30, 2018, 02:20:27 pm
      Anyone know about the FIRST Tesla electric car, a 1931 Pierce-Arrow Nikola converted to be all eclectic.  And the best part....  It don't have any batteries so no need for charging stations.  Acording to Tesla if ran on the energy from the universe.  That same energy he claimed could power the world.

      If only Elon had Tesla's orgininal car we would all be driving aound in electrica cars powered by the universe.
      Reference?

      In 1931, so the story goes, Tesla took his nephew to a garage in Buffalo, New York, and showed him a modified Pierce-Arrow automobile. The car’s ‘cosmic energy power receiver’ – a black box with 12 vacuum tubes – was connected to a long antenna.

      The car was said to have been driven for about 80 km at speeds of up to 140 km/h during an eight-day road test. Tesla allegedly said the device would power the car forever, and also supply the needs of a household “with power to spare”.

      It is a fact that in 1898 Tesla filed a patent for a “method of and apparatus for controlling mechanism of moving vessels or vehicles”.

      https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/did-nikola-tesla-build-a-revolutionary-electric-car

      Your reference concludes it didn't happen.  That patent was for remote control not magic power. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on November 30, 2018, 04:43:03 pm
      Anyone know about the FIRST Tesla electric car, a 1931 Pierce-Arrow Nikola converted to be all eclectic.  And the best part....  It don't have any batteries so no need for charging stations.  Acording to Tesla if ran on the energy from the universe.  That same energy he claimed could power the world.

      If only Elon had Tesla's orgininal car we would all be driving aound in electrica cars powered by the universe.
      Reference?

      In 1931, so the story goes, Tesla took his nephew to a garage in Buffalo, New York, and showed him a modified Pierce-Arrow automobile. The car’s ‘cosmic energy power receiver’ – a black box with 12 vacuum tubes – was connected to a long antenna.

      The car was said to have been driven for about 80 km at speeds of up to 140 km/h during an eight-day road test. Tesla allegedly said the device would power the car forever, and also supply the needs of a household “with power to spare”.

      It is a fact that in 1898 Tesla filed a patent for a “method of and apparatus for controlling mechanism of moving vessels or vehicles”.

      https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/did-nikola-tesla-build-a-revolutionary-electric-car

      Your reference concludes it didn't happen.  That patent was for remote control not magic power.


      Depends on how you define didn’t happen.  Just like Elon’s EV semi-trucks he’s making claims.  As for seeing one on the road, I haven’t yet and the physics/math sure make it appear to be impossible.  Same for Teslas car which ran on vacuum tubes.  But it appears he did make the claim.  Just as 80 years from now people will look back and see Elon made the claim about having a EV semi and ask where is it?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on December 01, 2018, 01:47:21 am
      In a nutshell, what happened is that gasoline cars were better. And still are, today. Jay Leno has a vidjeo of an electric car of that time in youtube.
      It's worth noting that EVs have been pushing gasoline engines to be more efficient in order to stay relevant. In particular, the use of the Atkinson cycle has increased dramatically.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atkinson_cycle#Vehicles_using_Atkinson-cycle_engines
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 01, 2018, 01:51:55 am
      In a nutshell, what happened is that gasoline cars were better. And still are, today. Jay Leno has a vidjeo of an electric car of that time in youtube.
      It's worth noting that EVs have been pushing gasoline engines to be more efficient in order to stay relevant. In particular, the use of the Atkinson cycle has increased dramatically.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atkinson_cycle#Vehicles_using_Atkinson-cycle_engines
      The Atkinson cycle has only become popular with partial electrification - i.e. hybrids. Its things like SkyactiveX which have moved the efficiency of general purpose combustion engines forwards.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 01, 2018, 06:41:53 am
      In a nutshell, what happened is that gasoline cars were better. And still are, today. Jay Leno has a vidjeo of an electric car of that time in youtube.
      It's worth noting that EVs have been pushing gasoline engines to be more efficient in order to stay relevant. In particular, the use of the Atkinson cycle has increased dramatically.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atkinson_cycle#Vehicles_using_Atkinson-cycle_engines
      The Atkinson cycle has only become popular with partial electrification - i.e. hybrids. Its things like SkyactiveX which have moved the efficiency of general purpose combustion engines forwards.

      I think you are missin the bigger picture.....  Goal is to eliminate combustion engines which produce CO2 and green house gasses caused by man which is causing climate change.  Greater efficiency is nice, but what we need to do is try and eliminate it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 01, 2018, 09:50:51 am
      I think you are missin the bigger picture.....  Goal is to eliminate combustion engines which produce CO2 and green house gasses caused by man which is causing climate change.  Greater efficiency is nice, but what we need to do is try and eliminate it.
      No, not at all. Better efficiency combined with third generation bio-fuels are the way forward. If we really want to move forward right now then there should be a ban on ICE cars which emit more than 100 grams of CO2 per km. That will be way more effective compared toying around with EVs and hope these will work somewhere within the next 20 years. Also the changeover to 100% bio-fuels will be much easier with more efficient ICE cars. The solution to getting to zero CO2 emissions from cars is that simple.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 01, 2018, 04:18:34 pm
      I think you are missin the bigger picture.....  Goal is to eliminate combustion engines which produce CO2 and green house gasses caused by man which is causing climate change.  Greater efficiency is nice, but what we need to do is try and eliminate it.
      No, not at all. Better efficiency combined with third generation bio-fuels are the way forward. If we really want to move forward right now then there should be a ban on ICE cars which emit more than 100 grams of CO2 per km. That will be way more effective compared toying around with EVs and hope these will work somewhere within the next 20 years. Also the changeover to 100% bio-fuels will be much easier with more efficient ICE cars. The solution to getting to zero CO2 emissions from cars is that simple.

      Latest news on hird gen bio fuels is we have run into a severe technological stumbling block we don’t know how to solve.  Maybe one day we might be able to figure it out, but right now it doens’t look promising.  As a result I thought research money looking into third gen bio fuels was scaled way back making it less likely we will find a solution any time soon.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 01, 2018, 04:29:23 pm
      In a nutshell, what happened is that gasoline cars were better. And still are, today. Jay Leno has a vidjeo of an electric car of that time in youtube.
      It's worth noting that EVs have been pushing gasoline engines to be more efficient in order to stay relevant. In particular, the use of the Atkinson cycle has increased dramatically.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atkinson_cycle#Vehicles_using_Atkinson-cycle_engines
      The Atkinson cycle has only become popular with partial electrification - i.e. hybrids. Its things like SkyactiveX which have moved the efficiency of general purpose combustion engines forwards.

      I think you are missin the bigger picture.....  Goal is to eliminate combustion engines which produce CO2 and green house gasses caused by man which is causing climate change.  Greater efficiency is nice, but what we need to do is try and eliminate it.
      I think you are missing the bigger picture. We aren't going to be able to eliminate ICE cars very quickly. Forms of ICE which are a lot more efficient are an important way to minimise the effects of ICE cars during the transition.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 01, 2018, 04:37:26 pm
      I think you are missin the bigger picture.....  Goal is to eliminate combustion engines which produce CO2 and green house gasses caused by man which is causing climate change.  Greater efficiency is nice, but what we need to do is try and eliminate it.
      No, not at all. Better efficiency combined with third generation bio-fuels are the way forward. If we really want to move forward right now then there should be a ban on ICE cars which emit more than 100 grams of CO2 per km. That will be way more effective compared toying around with EVs and hope these will work somewhere within the next 20 years. Also the changeover to 100% bio-fuels will be much easier with more efficient ICE cars. The solution to getting to zero CO2 emissions from cars is that simple.

      Latest news on hird gen bio fuels is we have run into a severe technological stumbling block we don’t know how to solve.  Maybe one day we might be able to figure it out, but right now it doens’t look promising.  As a result I thought research money looking into third gen bio fuels was scaled way back making it less likely we will find a solution any time soon.
      DSM is moving ahead and no mentioning of any cut backs in financing:
      https://annualreport.dsm.com/ar2017/en_US/7-3-innovation-center.html#H4794108691
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 01, 2018, 05:10:31 pm
      In a nutshell, what happened is that gasoline cars were better. And still are, today. Jay Leno has a vidjeo of an electric car of that time in youtube.
      It's worth noting that EVs have been pushing gasoline engines to be more efficient in order to stay relevant. In particular, the use of the Atkinson cycle has increased dramatically.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atkinson_cycle#Vehicles_using_Atkinson-cycle_engines
      The Atkinson cycle has only become popular with partial electrification - i.e. hybrids. Its things like SkyactiveX which have moved the efficiency of general purpose combustion engines forwards.

      I think you are missin the bigger picture.....  Goal is to eliminate combustion engines which produce CO2 and green house gasses caused by man which is causing climate change.  Greater efficiency is nice, but what we need to do is try and eliminate it.
      I think you are missing the bigger picture. We aren't going to be able to eliminate ICE cars very quickly. Forms of ICE which are a lot more efficient are an important way to minimise the effects of ICE cars during the transition.

      Agreeded.  In addition, hen refining crude oil there is always going to be some gasoline. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 01, 2018, 05:23:15 pm
      I think you are missin the bigger picture.....  Goal is to eliminate combustion engines which produce CO2 and green house gasses caused by man which is causing climate change.  Greater efficiency is nice, but what we need to do is try and eliminate it.
      No, not at all. Better efficiency combined with third generation bio-fuels are the way forward. If we really want to move forward right now then there should be a ban on ICE cars which emit more than 100 grams of CO2 per km. That will be way more effective compared toying around with EVs and hope these will work somewhere within the next 20 years. Also the changeover to 100% bio-fuels will be much easier with more efficient ICE cars. The solution to getting to zero CO2 emissions from cars is that simple.

      Latest news on hird gen bio fuels is we have run into a severe technological stumbling block we don’t know how to solve.  Maybe one day we might be able to figure it out, but right now it doens’t look promising.  As a result I thought research money looking into third gen bio fuels was scaled way back making it less likely we will find a solution any time soon.
      DSM is moving ahead and no mentioning of any cut backs in financing:
      https://annualreport.dsm.com/ar2017/en_US/7-3-innovation-center.html#H4794108691

      That’s just one data point.
      Not seeing any specutacular growth in that area with this company either.
      Appears what they are doing is developing yeats and enzymes to sell to biomass production companies to increase yields.  Not on next gen bio mass production.  (But then this is all marketing fluff anyway, so hard to tell).  This company is into solar and a bunch of other technologies and just not focused on Net Gen Bio. 

      DSM Bio-based Products & Services

      As the world increasingly seeks alternatives to fossil resources and progresses toward a more sustainable, bio-renewable economy, significant commercial opportunities are presenting themselves in advanced biofuels and renewable chemical building blocks such as bio-based succinic acid.

      DSM Bio-based Products & Services pioneers advances in biomass conversion and seeks to demonstrate the commercial viability of sustainable, renewable technologies in collaboration with strategic partners in the value chain. In particular, DSM has developed patented bioconversion technologies (yeast and enzymes) for various feedstocks and processes (including starch-based and cellulosic) in the biofuels industry. DSM's strategy is to deliver unique and differentiating technologies that enable biofuel plant operators to optimize their processes and maximize their yield and co-product creation. This helps make the production of biofuels even more sustainable.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 01, 2018, 05:35:45 pm
      I think you are missin the bigger picture.....  Goal is to eliminate combustion engines which produce CO2 and green house gasses caused by man which is causing climate change.  Greater efficiency is nice, but what we need to do is try and eliminate it.
      No, not at all. Better efficiency combined with third generation bio-fuels are the way forward. If we really want to move forward right now then there should be a ban on ICE cars which emit more than 100 grams of CO2 per km. That will be way more effective compared toying around with EVs and hope these will work somewhere within the next 20 years. Also the changeover to 100% bio-fuels will be much easier with more efficient ICE cars. The solution to getting to zero CO2 emissions from cars is that simple.

      Latest news on hird gen bio fuels is we have run into a severe technological stumbling block we don’t know how to solve.  Maybe one day we might be able to figure it out, but right now it doens’t look promising.  As a result I thought research money looking into third gen bio fuels was scaled way back making it less likely we will find a solution any time soon.
      DSM is moving ahead and no mentioning of any cut backs in financing:
      https://annualreport.dsm.com/ar2017/en_US/7-3-innovation-center.html#H4794108691
      That’s just one data point.
      So if one fails then all should fail?  :palm:
      Quote
      Not seeing any specutacular growth in that area with this company either.
      But they are definitely not pulling the plug like you suggested. Quite the opposite: they have invested more. And sure DSM is involved in more industries. It is a multi-billion euro company. Not the kind of guys that hold out their hands for some money and go of chasing after a pipe dream.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 01, 2018, 10:52:59 pm
      This is just one of their many business.  What about Shell, BP, Cheveron and the others.  are they investing?  Or defunding?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 01, 2018, 11:18:44 pm
      This is just one of their many business.  What about Shell, BP, Cheveron and the others.  are they investing?  Or defunding?
      Shell has started a factory in 2017 to turn waste into fuel so it seems they are also investing:
      https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/future-transport/biofuels.html (https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/future-transport/biofuels.html)
      But you could have found this through Google yourself. The fact is bio-fuel production and use are showing a steady increase for over 10 years. During that period I've noticed more and more gas stations offer the E10 blend for example (besides the standard E5 blend which has been available for IIRC over a decade). However unlike Musk bio-fuel isn't sexy enough to hit the news every day. Kind of a silent revolution but it is happening.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 02, 2018, 07:02:22 am
       And the EV beat goes on (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/01/what-changed-in-the-ev-industry-in-november/).

      I was surprised to see that EV sales reached 10% of all auto sales in California in August. And that was before the Tesla Model 3 ramp up!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 02, 2018, 11:09:15 am
      And the EV beat goes on (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/01/what-changed-in-the-ev-industry-in-november/).

      I was surprised to see that EV sales reached 10% of all auto sales in California in August. And that was before the Tesla Model 3 ramp up!
      Does that include or exclude plug-in hybrids? Those don't count as an EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 02, 2018, 04:23:41 pm
      You may opt may not like Elon or Tesla, but give credit where credit is due.  Elon is changing, no HAS CHANGED our world.    Talk about disruption.... 

      With Ford in talks with merging with Volks Wagon and GM closing manufacturing facilities and cutting jobs
       
      Model 3 - World Record: 1643 miles in 24 hours (including recharge)

      Yet we're led to believe electric cars can't cover long distances in a short amount of time -
      @Tesla
       #Model3 - World Record: 1,643 miles in 24 hours (including recharge) ->(link: https://www.insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?threads/model-3-world-record-1643-miles-in-24-hours-including-recharge.3866/ (https://www.insideevsforum.com/community/index.php?threads/model-3-world-record-1643-miles-in-24-hours-including-recharge.3866/)) insideevsforum.com/community/inde…


      Today, my husband and I are thankful for
      @elonmusk
      . We were saved by our Tesla from a driver going over 60mph. Thank you
      @elonmusk
       for making a vehicle safe for our family including our puppy dog Mr.Riley. We’re here with non life threatening injuries. #ElonMusk #teslax #tesla


      Tesla just acquired trucking capacity to ensure Model 3 can be delivered in US by Dec 31 if ordered by Nov 30
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 02, 2018, 04:39:05 pm
      But wait, there’s more.....
      “What Tesla did is truly astonishin, seats Porche.”
      https://electrek.co/2018/12/01/tesla-astonishing-porsche/ (https://electrek.co/2018/12/01/tesla-astonishing-porsche/)

      And Holden motors in Australia is going change the world by supporting a university class to teach studnets how to write software for self driving cars.

      http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/10/holden-supports-self-driving-car-university-course/ (http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/10/holden-supports-self-driving-car-university-course/)

      Do Australians even buy Holden cars?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 02, 2018, 04:58:57 pm
      And Holden motors in Australia is going change the world by supporting a university class to teach studnets how to write software for self driving cars.

      http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/10/holden-supports-self-driving-car-university-course/ (http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/10/holden-supports-self-driving-car-university-course/)

      Do Australians even buy Holden cars?
      Australians still buy a steadily falling number of Holden cars, but none are made in Australia these days. The self driving car course seems to be a marketing stunt.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 02, 2018, 05:05:24 pm
      And Holden motors in Australia is going change the world by supporting a university class to teach studnets how to write software for self driving cars.

      http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/10/holden-supports-self-driving-car-university-course/ (http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/10/holden-supports-self-driving-car-university-course/)

      Do Australians even buy Holden cars?
      Australians still buy a steadily falling number of Holden cars, but none are made in Australia these days. The self driving car course seems to be a marketing stunt.

      Where are they made now?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 02, 2018, 05:09:48 pm
      And Holden motors in Australia is going change the world by supporting a university class to teach studnets how to write software for self driving cars.

      http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/10/holden-supports-self-driving-car-university-course/ (http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/10/holden-supports-self-driving-car-university-course/)

      Do Australians even buy Holden cars?
      Australians still buy a steadily falling number of Holden cars, but none are made in Australia these days. The self driving car course seems to be a marketing stunt.

      Where are they made now?
      They seem to be a bunch of GM cars made in various parts of Asia, badged up as Holdens.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 02, 2018, 05:21:07 pm
      You may opt may not like Elon or Tesla, but give credit where credit is due.  Elon is changing, no HAS CHANGED our world.    Talk about disruption.... 

      With Ford in talks with merging with Volks Wagon and GM closing manufacturing facilities and cutting jobs
       
      Model 3 - World Record: 1643 miles in 24 hours (including recharge)

      Yet we're led to believe electric cars can't cover long distances in a short amount of time -
      They can't. That is an average speed of 109km/h in a country where there is no speed limit.  :palm: FFS! My wife & I cruise at 150km/h through Germany and at 130km/h through other countries. My wife and I would need less than 18 hours to cover the same distance @ 150km/h through Germany.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 02, 2018, 05:25:32 pm
      And Holden motors in Australia is going change the world by supporting a university class to teach studnets how to write software for self driving cars.

      http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/10/holden-supports-self-driving-car-university-course/ (http://gmauthority.com/blog/2018/10/holden-supports-self-driving-car-university-course/)

      Do Australians even buy Holden cars?
      Australians still buy a steadily falling number of Holden cars, but none are made in Australia these days. The self driving car course seems to be a marketing stunt.

      Where are they made now?
      They seem to be a bunch of GM cars made in various parts of Asia, badged up as Holdens.

      Sounds like what the Chinese do.  They sell a product with the name of a well known defunct or bankrupt American company when really it’s a Chinese product.   Polaroid, Westinghouse, Kodak are just a few that come to mind.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 02, 2018, 05:28:43 pm
      You may opt may not like Elon or Tesla, but give credit where credit is due.  Elon is changing, no HAS CHANGED our world.    Talk about disruption.... 

      With Ford in talks with merging with Volks Wagon and GM closing manufacturing facilities and cutting jobs
       
      Model 3 - World Record: 1643 miles in 24 hours (including recharge)

      Yet we're led to believe electric cars can't cover long distances in a short amount of time -
      They can't. That is an average speed of 109km/h in a country where there is no speed limit.  :palm: FFS! My wife & I cruise at 150km/h through Germany and at 130km/h through other countries. My wife and I would need less than 18 hours to cover the same distance @ 150km/h through Germany.

      Guess I’m not understanding you.  They claim to have done it, yet you say they can’t?  Can you explain?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 02, 2018, 05:34:46 pm
      Sounds like what the Chinese do.  They sell a product with the name of a well known defunct or bankrupt American company when really it’s a Chinese product.   Polaroid, Westinghouse, Kodak are just a few that come to mind.
      Its not just the Chinese. Defunct names have been bought up in bulk by various growing economies, and often used in odd ways. For example Grundig never made kitchen appliances, but Grundig is now a name on fridges and washing machines made in Turkey. You also see names which are still being used for their original purpose by the original company, but licenced out for adjunct products. e.g. Kenwood is still a food mixer maker, now owned by DeLonghi, but they have licenced out the name Kenwood for the UK retailer Currys to put on the front of some Asian fridges.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 02, 2018, 05:48:15 pm
      You may opt may not like Elon or Tesla, but give credit where credit is due.  Elon is changing, no HAS CHANGED our world.    Talk about disruption.... 

      With Ford in talks with merging with Volks Wagon and GM closing manufacturing facilities and cutting jobs
       
      Model 3 - World Record: 1643 miles in 24 hours (including recharge)

      Yet we're led to believe electric cars can't cover long distances in a short amount of time -
      They can't. That is an average speed of 109km/h in a country where there is no speed limit.  :palm: FFS! My wife & I cruise at 150km/h through Germany and at 130km/h through other countries. My wife and I would need less than 18 hours to cover the same distance @ 150km/h through Germany.
      Guess I’m not understanding you.  They claim to have done it, yet you say they can’t?  Can you explain?
      Emphasis added. Either way your post about the 'world record' clearly underlines why EVs don't work well for long distances because the time needed for charging makes the effective speed go down a lot. There is also a world record for the fastest snail: http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/70393-fastest-snail-racing (http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/70393-fastest-snail-racing) An equally useful record.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Red Squirrel on December 02, 2018, 06:11:36 pm
      In a real world scenario nobody is going to drive that much in a 24 hour period though.  If you need to go that far it makes much more sense to take an airplane.  Of course that's not very green, but perhaps once electric cars are mainstream the next step is to look into electric planes.  The biggest challenge is always going to be electricity storage so it's something we need to figure out. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 02, 2018, 06:22:34 pm
      In a real world scenario nobody is going to drive that much in a 24 hour period though.  If you need to go that far it makes much more sense to take an airplane.  Of course that's not very green, but perhaps once electric cars are mainstream the next step is to look into electric planes.  The biggest challenge is always going to be electricity storage so it's something we need to figure out.
      A lot of people drive 7 to 10 hours a day for 2 or even 3 days when going on a holiday. Using an EV would add several hours to the travel time. The problem with an airplane is that you can't bring so much stuff like a tent, bicycles, clothes, etc.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 02, 2018, 06:27:28 pm
      You may opt may not like Elon or Tesla, but give credit where credit is due.  Elon is changing, no HAS CHANGED our world.    Talk about disruption.... 

      With Ford in talks with merging with Volks Wagon and GM closing manufacturing facilities and cutting jobs
       
      Model 3 - World Record: 1643 miles in 24 hours (including recharge)

      Yet we're led to believe electric cars can't cover long distances in a short amount of time -
      They can't. That is an average speed of 109km/h in a country where there is no speed limit.  :palm: FFS! My wife & I cruise at 150km/h through Germany and at 130km/h through other countries. My wife and I would need less than 18 hours to cover the same distance @ 150km/h through Germany.
      Guess I’m not understanding you.  They claim to have done it, yet you say they can’t?  Can you explain?
      Emphasis added. Either way your post about the 'world record' clearly underlines why EVs don't work well for long distances because the time needed for charging makes the effective speed go down a lot. There is also a world record for the fastest snail: http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/70393-fastest-snail-racing (http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/70393-fastest-snail-racing) An equally useful record.

      And Eskimos have freezers and people living in the Sarahra desert have heaters......  What’s your point? 

      Modern EV’s are 10  or so years old and still evolving.  ICE’s have been evolving for 0ver 100 years.  Just as there were milestones with ICE, modern EVs are creating milestones as well.  Just give them 90 years to catch-up.  But at the rate EVs are evolving probably won’t even take 25 years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 02, 2018, 06:38:08 pm
      Making up history again. EVs have already died off once and the way things are (not) going with suitable batteries EVs will likely die off again. And again due to the batteries. Maybe in another 50 years after really good batteries have been invented EVs stand a chance.

      But the point is that the record you are referring to is a record for doing something in a really obfustigated way.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 02, 2018, 07:18:18 pm
      Making up history again. EVs have already died off once and the way things are (not) going with suitable batteries EVs will likely die off again. And again due to the batteries. Maybe in another 50 years after really good batteries have been invented EVs stand a chance.

      But the point is that the record you are referring to is a record for doing something in a really obfustigated way.

      You might be right or you might be wrong.  One thing I hope we can agee is Elon and Tesla motors has really disrupted the auto industry.  The world was a different place 100 years ago.  While history sometimes repeats itself there are times when it doesn’t.   This is an experiment in progress. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 02, 2018, 11:17:00 pm
      The last few posts make the the joke about statisticians being the expert you bring in when the figures can't lie for themselves quite clear.  Folks on both sides of the argument have presented correct facts and math, with neither side telling the whole story or believing that the other side has a point.

      Another example of how figures can be used in opposite directions comes from my own case.  While I don't have exact statistics, I am confident that I well over 95% of my trips are of lengths that a wide variety of electric vehicles will support.  On the other hand, since the few trips that don't fit that profile are literally 100s of times longer than the short trips a significant majority of my travel miles are on trips that an EV is challenged to support.  How that plays into the overall decision depends on other specific use factors.  For example the distance to the closest rental agency and parking fees in or around that rental agency.

      Clearly electric vehicles can go long distances.  Equally clearly, ICE vehicles can go further in the same time period for time periods over a few hours.  Which one is adequate and which one is better depends on specifics of use cases and preferences.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 02, 2018, 11:30:25 pm
      The last few posts make the the joke about statisticians being the expert you bring in when the figures can't lie for themselves quite clear.  Folks on both sides of the argument have presented correct facts and math, with neither side telling the whole story or believing that the other side has a point.

      Another example of how figures can be used in opposite directions comes from my own case.  While I don't have exact statistics, I am confident that I well over 95% of my trips are of lengths that a wide variety of electric vehicles will support.  On the other hand, since the few trips that don't fit that profile are literally 100s of times longer than the short trips a significant majority of my travel miles are on trips that an EV is challenged to support.  How that plays into the overall decision depends on other specific use factors.  For example the distance to the closest rental agency and parking fees in or around that rental agency.

      Clearly electric vehicles can go long distances.  Equally clearly, ICE vehicles can go further in the same time period for time periods over a few hours.  Which one is adequate and which one is better depends on specifics of use cases and preferences.

      I leaned in college 78.9% of the statistics are made up. Glad to see your data is in 100% support my professor’s statement.

      It also depends where you live and what you do in life.  To put what you are saying another way would be to. act locally and think globaly.



       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 03, 2018, 07:43:41 am
      In a real world scenario nobody is going to drive that much in a 24 hour period though.  If you need to go that far it makes much more sense to take an airplane.  Of course that's not very green, but perhaps once electric cars are mainstream the next step is to look into electric planes.  The biggest challenge is always going to be electricity storage so it's something we need to figure out.
      A lot of people drive 7 to 10 hours a day for 2 or even 3 days when going on a holiday. Using an EV would add several hours to the travel time. The problem with an airplane is that you can't bring so much stuff like a tent, bicycles, clothes, etc.

      A lot of people move house once a year as well, by your logic their daily driver should be a moving truck.

      For occasional use, it makes more sense to rent the capacity you need, rather than own it year-round.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 03, 2018, 07:46:09 am
      Making up history again. EVs have already died off once and the way things are (not) going with suitable batteries EVs will likely die off again. And again due to the batteries. Maybe in another 50 years after really good batteries have been invented EVs stand a chance.

      dying off?  Are you looking at all of the data nmop episdn ?

      1 in 12 new cars sold in Canada is an EV.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=586685;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 03, 2018, 07:53:07 am
      At some point that number will flatten off due to market saturation (*). In the end it comes down to the willingness of people to buy electric cars. A study made by the Dutch government (https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2016-stimuleren-van-elektrisch-rijden-1924.pdf (https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2016-stimuleren-van-elektrisch-rijden-1924.pdf) ) from 2016 shows that people a more willing to buy Hydrogen powered cars than EVs due to the long time it takes to charge an EV. Buying an ICE car is still the most likely scenario.

      Do these numbers include plug-in hybrids? If they do then they are massively skewed. People don't really charge plug-in hybrid but do like to collect the tax incentives. In the Netherlands the tax incentives for plug-in hybrid have stopped and the sales of plug-on hybrids is now close to zero.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 03, 2018, 03:38:04 pm
      At some point that number will flatten off due to market saturation. In the end it comes down to the willingness of people to buy electric cars. A study made by the Dutch government (https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2016-stimuleren-van-elektrisch-rijden-1924.pdf (https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/pbl-2016-stimuleren-van-elektrisch-rijden-1924.pdf) ) from 2016 shows that people a more willing to buy Hydrogen powered cars than EVs due to the long time it takes to charge an EV. Buying an ICE car is still the most likely scenario.

      Report is an excellent example of car manufactures not listening to their customers.  Don’t know of one car manufacture that’s producing hydrogen powered cars in any quantity. As for the Dutch people.....  Don’t they care about man caused climate change?  Do they not know the hydrogen which would be used to power their cars comes from the fossil fuels/crude oil? 

      If they are so concerned with fueling times, I would think they would favor a nuclear power carr.  Only needs to be fueled once a year.

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 03, 2018, 04:59:02 pm
      Don’t know of one car manufacture that’s producing hydrogen powered cars in any quantity.
      As far as I understand the hydrogen powered cars produced to date have been sold at a lot, and only made to meet compliance conditions. Until there are more cost effective nobody is going to make them in greater volumes than they need to. A few people, like Mercdes, say they have greatly reduced the use of expensive materials in prototype fuel cells. We will have to see how that works out in production. They still have things like the heavy and expensive fuel tank, and its associated plumbing, to work on.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 03, 2018, 06:02:16 pm
      Don’t know of one car manufacture that’s producing hydrogen powered cars in any quantity.
      As far as I understand the hydrogen powered cars produced to date have been sold at a lot, and only made to meet compliance conditions. Until there are more cost effective nobody is going to make them in greater volumes than they need to. A few people, like Mercdes, say they have greatly reduced the use of expensive materials in prototype fuel cells. We will have to see how that works out in production. They still have things like the heavy and expensive fuel tank, and its associated plumbing, to work on.

      I would not say a lot of hydrogen fuel cell cars have been sold.  But Japan is saying they will be Hydrogen powered by 2022.  That's only 3 years.....  We will see.  Where I live there is only one fuleing station that's 20 miels away.  But as we know with the technology we have hydrogen powered cars require more enegy to produces, compress, transoprt and store the fuel than would be used to power the car.


      https://youtu.be/f7MzFfuNOtY






      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 03, 2018, 06:07:27 pm
      EVs are the future of personal and commercial ground transportation. Period. Full stop. 

      All of  the large, legacy auto manufacturers are now admitting this and all have EVs for sale and/or in development.

      No, they will not be an easy plug and play replacement for ICE vehicles with their large supportive infrastructure developed over the past 100 years with $trillions$ of government subsidies.  But they will replace them nevertheless.

      The process is already well underway evidenced by the sales numbers and development plans for new EVs and discontinuation of ICE vehicles by the large automakers. The only ones who don't seem to accept this are the uninformed or those whose political biases or cognitive dissoance prevent them from acknowledging it.

      Their will never be anything to fully replace the amazing combination of energy density and easy transportability of oil derived liquid fuels.  Hydrogen was an idea explored as a possibility but the last few decades have proven that the expense and difficulty of transporting and transferring it safely and efficiently along with other short comings mean that it will never become a primary means of fueling vehicles. The few legacy token research and prototype vehicles are all that remains of that pipe dream. 

      Biofuels are also a dead end for mass adoption which is clear to anyone who understands their energetics and fossil fuel dependence for mass production.

      EVs are the best we can do and all we can hope for is that the political will materializes to allow a fast enough transition away from fossil fuel dependent electricity production so that future generations will have some availability of mechanized transportation as the oil age comes to a close.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 03, 2018, 06:17:32 pm
      I would not say a lot of hydrogen fuel cell cars have been sold.  But Japan is saying they will be Hydrogen powered by 2022.  That's only 3 years.....  We will see.  Where I live there is only one fuleing station that's 20 miles away.  But as we know with the technology we have hydrogen powered cars require more enegy to produces, compress, transoprt and store the fuel than would be used to power the car.
      Japan being Hydrogen powered by 2022 is just marketing BS. They just aim to have 10s of thousands of hydrogen powered cars, and a rather limited numbers of fueling stations. I haven't seen anything about them planning to use low carbon footprint approaches to producing the hydrogen, so it will probably be quite a high pollution scheme.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 03, 2018, 06:24:13 pm
      Don’t know of one car manufacture that’s producing hydrogen powered cars in any quantity.
      As far as I understand the hydrogen powered cars produced to date have been sold at a lot, and only made to meet compliance conditions. Until there are more cost effective nobody is going to make them in greater volumes than they need to. A few people, like Mercdes, say they have greatly reduced the use of expensive materials in prototype fuel cells. We will have to see how that works out in production. They still have things like the heavy and expensive fuel tank, and its associated plumbing, to work on.
      I would not say a lot of hydrogen fuel cell cars have been sold.  But Japan is saying they will be Hydrogen powered by 2022.  That's only 3 years.....  We will see.  Where I live there is only one fuleing station that's 20 miels away.  But as we know with the technology we have hydrogen powered cars require more enegy to produces, compress, transoprt and store the fuel than would be used to power the car.
      People don't care about that. Fuel for ICE cars and making batteries for an EV takes a lot of energy too. What counts is not going back to a horse you need to give water at every stop and let it rest for a long time after doing longer stretches.

      @mtdoc: as long as EVs don't offer a 1 on 1 replacement when it comes to ease of use and costs versus a different kind of car then your beloved EV revolution isn't going to happen. The ICE + bio-fuel and Hydrogen hold much better cards for short term broad adoption by the people. See the study I linked to earlier. Most people simply don't want EVs due to long charging times. If that isn't fixed then EV adoption will remain marginal and sales number will flatten or even drop due to market saturation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on December 03, 2018, 06:50:04 pm
      Also we lack enough Lithium to electrify transport, but there's no lack of water.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 03, 2018, 07:26:49 pm
      EVs are the future of personal and commercial ground transportation. Period. Full stop. 

      All of  the large, legacy auto manufacturers are now admitting this and all have EVs for sale and/or in development.

      No, they will not be an easy plug and play replacement for ICE vehicles with their large supportive infrastructure developed over the past 100 years with $trillions$ of government subsidies.  But they will replace them nevertheless.

      The process is already well underway evidenced by the sales numbers and development plans for new EVs and discontinuation of ICE vehicles by the large automakers. The only ones who don't seem to accept this are the uninformed or those whose political biases or cognitive dissoance prevent them from acknowledging it.

      Their will never be anything to fully replace the amazing combination of energy density and easy transportability of oil derived liquid fuels.  Hydrogen was an idea explored as a possibility but the last few decades have proven that the expense and difficulty of transporting and transferring it safely and efficiently along with other short comings mean that it will never become a primary means of fueling vehicles. The few legacy token research and prototype vehicles are all that remains of that pipe dream. 

      Biofuels are also a dead end for mass adoption which is clear to anyone who understands their energetics and fossil fuel dependence for mass production.

      EVs are the best we can do and all we can hope for is that the political will materializes to allow a fast enough transition away from fossil fuel dependent electricity production so that future generations will have some availability of mechanized transportation as the oil age comes to a close.

      Well said. 

      In reading this you made me think of pollution control devices on cars.  It was over 100 years ago California had the cleanest air.  People moved here because of the clean air.  Then in the late 1940s the air was mysteriously becoming polluted.  It took a UC Berkeley scientist to figure out the reason the air was becoming polluted was car exhaust.

      By the 1960s the air was so polutted your eyes would water and your throat would burn from all of the air pollution.  Had our governement not steped in and ordered car manufactures to install polution controll devices our air would be unbreathable.  But besace they did, and the car manufractures and consumers tried to prevent it our air is clean and breathable once again.  (Except when we have forest fires.)

      What I am getting at is EVs might be more expelsinve today, and might not be exactly what consumers want today.  But in the long there is no doubt they are better for all of society.

      Just as consumers 100 years ago favored ICE cars over ECE and EVs.  We are slowly seeing consuers starting to favor EVs.  And with companies like Volvo discontinuing ICE cars.  Then you have GM announcing they will be closing 15 ICE car manufactoring plants one can see something's going on.  And then we have Ford announing they will discontinue manufacturing ICE cars and want's to become a Tech company like Tesla.

      With all of these chages occuring it will force consumers to pruchae EVs.  And at that happens we will see more charging stations and improvements to the electrial distrubution system.  Will "we" be inconvienced as this change occurs?  Probably, put just like the gas shortage and linse to get gas in the 1970s will we figure this it out.

      Let me leave you with one last thought.   If you wanted to start a new business manufacturing cars what energy source would you use to power the car?  Steam, gasoline/ICE or fuel cell, Hydrogen, nuclear, compressed air or electrical?  Of maybe you might want to make buggies becuea you think horses will make a comeback.

      I think there's are reason Volvo and Tesala are in the EV camp.....  It is our future.  If you dsagree start making cars and see if anyone will buy them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 04, 2018, 04:32:18 pm
      Looks like EVs won’t be selling well in Austraila.

      https://youtu.be/euGIg7lp3XY

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 04, 2018, 04:53:58 pm
      I think there's are reason Volvo and Tesala are in the EV camp.....  It is our future.  If you dsagree start making cars and see if anyone will buy them.
      Volvo is Chinese nowadays so no surprise there. The only reason it makes sense to make EVs is because it is a niche market with growth. The ICE car market is extremely competitive so if you can't play along with the big boys you try to find a niche.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on December 04, 2018, 05:46:22 pm
      The fact that most car makers are currently trying to jump on the EV bandwagon is no particular sign of it being "our future" or even being a wise move. They are just simply doing that for very basic competition reasons. In other words, they basically have no choice. This is exactly what happens with any trend no matter how relevant or bullshitty it is.

      The more interesting factors to look at are not their current EV projects, but how much they invest in those and the other projects they are leading IMO.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on December 04, 2018, 07:07:14 pm
      Hello to the EV troll community :popcorn:
      The november figures are there, and as usual, they look excellent  :-+
      https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 04, 2018, 07:22:00 pm
      Hello to the EV troll community :popcorn:
      The november figures are there, and as usual, they look excellent  :-+
      https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)

      Impressive. They more than doubled year over year. Especially impressive considering that during the same yoy period, total vehicle sales declined.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 04, 2018, 08:00:06 pm
      Are you reading the same charts?

      2016 Sales (US)  158,614
      2017 Sales (US)  199,818
      2018 Sales (US)  308,003

      I guess if you round up to the nearest integer it counts as doubling of sales between 2017 and 2018.  Barely.  The totals are impressive and a good trend, but let's be honest.  Even if December sales are off the chart it will be less than double.  A believer sees the world in their own way, just as non-believers do.

      The trend is clear and unless something changes (major recession, a kink in the supply chain, sudden drop in oil prices) it is clear that sales will be into a double digit percentage of total sales in the next few years.  Which would be one metric for the title of the thread- electric becoming mainstream.

      One thing I found interesting was the percentage of worldwide sales in the US.  That is the climate change denying, car bedazzled, some of the lowest gas prices in the world, relatively long driving distances US.  Electrics are sold at about the same percentage of total sales here as in the rest of the world, even though many of the factors involved in their selection seem to work against US sales.  What is going on in the rest of the world?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 04, 2018, 08:11:26 pm
      I'm talking year over year comparison for November (i.e. monthly) sales.

      November 2017:  17,178
      November 2018:  39,274
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 04, 2018, 08:20:52 pm
      I'm talking year over year comparison for November (i.e. monthly) sales.

      November 2017:  17,178
      November 2018:  39,274
      I'm not sure monthly sales are a good comparison if you look at how the sales of some key models bounce around. For example, why did sales of the Volt double from October to November? Year over year probably averages too much in this rapidly rising market, but month by month looks really noisy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 04, 2018, 08:24:11 pm
      Yeah, monthly data is too noisy.  I mean gee, electric sales dropped by a quarter from October to November.  Electric cars must be going the way of Bitcoin.  :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 04, 2018, 08:29:05 pm
      Are you reading the same charts?

      2016 Sales (US)  158,614
      2017 Sales (US)  199,818
      2018 Sales (US)  308,003

      I guess if you round up to the nearest integer it counts as doubling of sales between 2017 and 2018.  Barely.  The totals are impressive and a good trend, but let's be honest.  Even if December sales are off the chart it will be less than double.  A believer sees the world in their own way, just as non-believers do.

      The trend is clear and unless something changes (major recession, a kink in the supply chain, sudden drop in oil prices) it is clear that sales will be into a double digit percentage of total sales in the next few years.  Which would be one metric for the title of the thread- electric becoming mainstream.
      Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.
      Quote
      One thing I found interesting was the percentage of worldwide sales in the US.  That is the climate change denying, car bedazzled, some of the lowest gas prices in the world, relatively long driving distances US.  Electrics are sold at about the same percentage of total sales here as in the rest of the world, even though many of the factors involved in their selection seem to work against US sales.  What is going on in the rest of the world?

      In Europe the distances between cities are smaller so it is cheaper and more convenient (no time table to adhere to) to drive than to use the airplane. I also have a feeling cars are way more expensive in Europe due to taxes, higher safety and higher quality demands. Together with higher income taxes people just don't have the money to buy multiple cars in Europe. So one car should be able to do it all (including the long journey every now and then).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 04, 2018, 08:33:09 pm
      I'm talking year over year comparison for November (i.e. monthly) sales.

      November 2017:  17,178
      November 2018:  39,274

      And I bet you you prick the right daily totals you will be able to find even better or worse statistics.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 04, 2018, 08:33:47 pm
      Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.
      The people I know with a PHEV got them because they do a lot of short journeys. They get a lot of their mileage from their mains charges.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 04, 2018, 08:38:06 pm
      Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.
      The people I know with a PHEV got them because they do a lot of short journeys. They get a lot of their mileage from their mains charges.
      That is only people you know. In the Netherlands all tax incentives on PHEVs got cancelled because the cars where running on fuel and not electricity.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 04, 2018, 09:15:12 pm
      Yeah, monthly data is too noisy.  I mean gee, electric sales dropped by a quarter from October to November.  Electric cars must be going the way of Bitcoin.  :palm:

      Year over year, monthly data is THE STANDARD way that auto sales are evaluated. There is strong seasonality and so it is the year over year monthly data that is considered the best measure of sales growth or decline. This is how all auto industry economic/financial analysis is done. 

      Yearly totals are obviously important as well. 2018 is not over yet but based on the numbers to date - the yearly sales growth of EVs is continuing its phenomenal pace.   This despite a slowdown in overall auto sales.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 04, 2018, 09:19:36 pm
      Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.

      Absolute bullshit. On several levels.

      PHEVs are EVs. Most have ranges which allow >90% of driving to be all electric.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 04, 2018, 09:23:29 pm
      Mind you that a significant amount (30% or more) of those sales figures include plug-in hybrids which usually have a tiny battery and thus no pure electric range to speak off. These shouldn't count as electric cars at all because in reality they aren't used that way.

      Absolute bullshit. On several levels.

      PHEVs are EVs. Most have ranges which allow >90% of driving to be all electric.
      Well then explain why the Dutch government doesn't consider PHEVs as EVs? It seems to me a bunch of people capable of running a country disagree with you.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 04, 2018, 09:27:31 pm
      Summary of this thread:

      Question:  Are EVs on track to become mainstream?

      One side:


      Factual data on rapid EV sales growth and adoption rates.
      Factual data on expansion of EV models being sold by multiple manufacturers.
      Factual data regarding automaker plans to continue to expand EV offerings.
      Factual data regarding automaker investment in developing new EVs.
      Factual data regarding driving habits and feasibility of widespread adoption.
      Reality of necessary phase out of fossil fuel vehicles.
      First hand reports from several EV owners.


      The other side:

      Opinions, speculation and misinformation.

       ::)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 04, 2018, 10:15:18 pm
      You forgot to add 'It is true. Really'.  :-DD
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: IanB on December 05, 2018, 02:52:16 am
      In the Netherlands all tax incentives on PHEVs got cancelled because the cars where running on fuel and not electricity.

      Tax incentives get cancelled in order to raise tax revenues. No government ever turned down an extra opportunity to tax things.

      In the UK petrol is so expensive that people with electric cars make sure to do as much driving as possible under electric power. From personal knowledge that includes driving in and around London as well as journeys around the suburbs. I am sure fuel is just as expensive in the Netherlands. If people with PHEVs use gasoline instead of electricity it just means they are wealthy and they treat their cars as toys. Which explains why the government might choose to tax them more.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 05, 2018, 03:40:01 am
      Summary of this thread:

      Question:  Are EVs on track to become mainstream?

      One side:


      Factual data on rapid EV sales growth and adoption rates.
      Factual data on expansion of EV models being sold by multiple manufacturers.
      Factual data regarding automaker plans to continue to expand EV offerings.
      Factual data regarding automaker investment in developing new EVs.
      Factual data regarding driving habits and feasibility of widespread adoption.
      Reality of necessary phase out of fossil fuel vehicles.
      First hand reports from several EV owners.


      The other side:

      Opinions, speculation and misinformation.

       ::)

      Well that is one way to see it.  Of course first hand reports from EV owners is good data.  First hand reports of ICE owners is opinion.  Data selected from a set is not misinformation.  And the need to phase out fossil fuel vehicles is not a commandment to electric vehicles.  Electric vehicles are one solution.  An arguably better solution is to go to high density housing and electric mass transit.  But then the opinion is raised that that is too hard, or too much impact on lifestyle.  After discounting opinions on lifestyle impact of eliminating ICE cars.

      There are facts and data available.  Why not apply them and stop selling.  The question of the thread is when EV will become mainstream.  Using the sales data from the recent post you can provide one answer to the question.  The data fit an exponential growth pattern reasonably well.  You can extrapolate that into the future and get an answer, depending on your definition of mainstream.  In my mind the lowest penetration that would qualify is 10% while 50% penetration would be pretty undeniable.  With exponential growth the difference between the answers is not really significant.  10% comes in 2027 and 50% comes in 2029.

      The argument now becomes whether that growth rate can be maintained.  The chart does make clear the scale of the change that will have to occur to make it true.

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 05, 2018, 05:17:03 am
      Of course first hand reports from EV owners is good data.  First hand reports of ICE owners is opinion.

      Nonsense.  ICE vehicle owners reporting info about ICE vehicle ownership is data. ICE only owners speculating about EV ownership experience is speculation not data.  And BTW I don't think there are any EV owners here (and very few anywhere) who have not also owned an ICE vehicle.

      Quote
      And the need to phase out fossil fuel vehicles is not a commandment to electric vehicles.  Electric vehicles are one solution.
        Sure, but when it comes to personal transportation - all other alternatives explored to date (e.g. hydrogen, biofuels ) have fallen far short of the success of EVs. The market has spoken.

      Quote
      An arguably better solution is to go to high density housing and electric mass transit.
        Good options and viable adjunct modes of transportation. It's not either/or.  Are you arguing that a complete loss of personal transporation is a solution?  I have long held that in the end there will by necessity be far fewer personal vehicles on the road but not none.  High density housing, walkable and bike-able communities along with electric mass transport all make good sense.

      Quote
      There are facts and data available.  Why not apply them and stop selling
        I'm not selling anything. Throughout this thread, I and others have presented referenced facts as well as personal experiences on EV use.  The data speaks for itself. EV sales, the number of EV models available, and the number of upcoming releases from all the major auto manufacturers are all exploding upward. Those are just the facts. Presenting them and pointing out the obvious conclusion, that EVs are very quickly becoming mainstream is not selling anything - it's acknowledging reality.


      Quote
      Using the sales data from the recent post you can provide one answer to the question.  The data fit an exponential growth pattern reasonably well.  You can extrapolate that into the future and get an answer, depending on your definition of mainstream.  In my mind the lowest penetration that would qualify is 10% while 50% penetration would be pretty undeniable.  With exponential growth the difference between the answers is not really significant.  10% comes in 2027 and 50% comes in 2029.

      The argument now becomes whether that growth rate can be maintained.  The chart does make clear the scale of the change that will have to occur to make it true.

      Nice effort. Though if you are plotting US auto sales, your end point for sales is extremely unrealistic.  US monthly auto sales are on the order of 1.5 million per month. (http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/10/usa-auto-industry-total-sales-figures/)  Even if your are plotting global sales, it is way off. Global car sales average about 6.5 million per month. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/) Your graph shows 50 million!! :wtf:

      If you're trying to plot global sales, your EV volumes are way off. Global monthly EV sales are approximately 150k currently. (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)  Far greater than the 40k in your graph.   

      I assume these were honest mistakes and you weren't intentionally trying to mislead...

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 05, 2018, 06:08:16 am
      There were errors in my plot.  It was based on numbers I remembered for world auto sales and the percentage of those sales in the US.  Your comment caused me to look up the numbers.  According to https://www.statista.com/statistics/199983/us-vehicle-sales-since-1951/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/199983/us-vehicle-sales-since-1951/) US auto sales have been about 17 million annually for the last few years.  I can't predict future trends here so I have assumed constant sales for the future.  This could easily be wrong, in either direction.  Population growth would say it should go up.  Some demographic trends say that the younger generations aren't into cars as much as their predecessors.  I also didn't factor in seasonal sales rate variations, just divided the total sales by 12.  This is also sales of light vehicles.  Some will argue that you shouldn't compare EV to light vehicles which includes pickup trucks and the like, but the US buying public largely treats pickups as interchangeable with other personal vehicles.  This is also relevant to the point that the plant closings at GM and others was announced as allowing investment in EV AND trucks, SUVs and crossovers which is what is selling in the current market.

      Percentage also missed the factor of 100 required to convert from a fraction.  Both mistakes stupidity rather than intent.

      The revised graph is attached.   Crossover points move to 2021 for 10% and 2023 for 50%

      Obviously the exponential growth curve will be violated as EV approaches total sales.  Corporate executives will be canned by the dozens as they try to transition from an explosive growth model to a market saturation condition.  If EV are as reliable as expected this could hit even earlier.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 05, 2018, 06:29:01 am
      Of course first hand reports from EV owners is good data.  First hand reports of ICE owners is opinion.

      Nonsense.  ICE vehicle owners reporting info about ICE vehicle ownership is data. ICE only owners speculating about EV ownership experience is speculation not data.  And BTW I don't think there are any EV owners here (and very few anywhere) who have not also owned an ICE vehicle.


      I agree that most EV owners are previous ICE owners.  I presume they checked their use case before buying EV so it is not surprising that they are happy with their purchase. 

      I guess using published data on charging times and charge station location against your personal case is not data, but it is analysis.  Something that is done all the time in engineering.  It is usually not called speculation.

      EV owners speculating about the use cases of other drivers is speculation not data.  It is a fact that the vast majority of trips are within EV capabilities.  It is also a fact that the other trips are made and make a difference.  Whether those trips can be skipped (is this trip really necessary), solved with a rental, route planning or whatever depends highly on the individual situation.  A person not in that situation is speculating. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 05, 2018, 06:48:19 am
      The revised graph is attached.   Crossover points move to 2021 for 10% and 2023 for 50%

      Canada is over 8% for EV sales for cars right now (just cars, not trucks or vans or...).  I would guess the 10% will easily be exceeded next year.

      Interestingly Canada has two distinct demographics, with some living in VERY sparse localities where a 450km drive to reach the nearest traffic light is not uncommon; but half of the population live in the top 8 densely populated metropolitan areas.
       
      Canada 37.1m

      Toronto 5.9m
      Montreal 4.1m
      Vancouver 2.5m
      Calgary 1.4m
      Ottawa 1.3m
      Edmonton 1.3m
      Quebec 0.8m
      Hamilton 0.7m
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 05, 2018, 06:58:48 am
      You guys are still beating this dead horse?

      EV's are going to continue to gain popularity for quite some time, ICE vehicles are not going to vanish any time soon but larger and larger percentages of cars on the road are going to be EVs, the fact that they work for a great many people is just that, a fact.

      That's not going to convince anyone who has a religious belief that they don't work though, you will never convince those people with data because their argument is not based on data, it's based on emotion. Trying to use logic in an emotional debate is futile, the other side will dig in their heals, engage in mental gymnastics, move the goalpost, dodge, deflect and distract, come up with every imaginable edge case and project that on everyone, you can't win, no point in trying.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 05, 2018, 07:35:18 am
      (https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png)

      EV's are going to continue to gain popularity for quite some time, ICE vehicles are not going to vanish any time soon but larger and larger percentages of cars on the road are going to be EVs, the fact that they work for a great many people is just that, a fact.
      The study I linked to earlier clearly showed the majority of the people doesn't want to have an EV due to limitations in their current state of technology. That is a fact which shows EVs won't become mainstream in the next 5 to 20 years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on December 05, 2018, 08:04:31 am
      Quote
      clearly showed the majority of the people doesn't want to have an EV due to limitations in their current state of technology.
      Well, your study is clearly BS, because it has been proven wrong since.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 05, 2018, 09:46:50 am
      Quote
      clearly showed the majority of the people doesn't want to have an EV due to limitations in their current state of technology.
      Well, your study is clearly BS, because it has been proven wrong since.
      Tell that to the people running the Netherlands. Use Google translate because the study is well worth the read. Before doing any wild extrapolations you have to research where the market saturation point for EVs is at. The market saturation will be determined whether people are willing to buy EVs or not. For example: In 2017 Ford sold 896764 F series pick-up trucks in the US alone and by the looks of it they are going to sell a similar number of these vehicles in 2018. It would be interesting to find out how why the buyers of these cars didn't buy an EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 05, 2018, 03:56:03 pm
      I would like to point out that every new ICE car sold very often means two ICE car sales, one new and one second hand. In the (new) car sales graphs we only see one of them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 05, 2018, 06:02:16 pm
      I would like to point out that every new ICE car sold very often means two ICE car sales, one new and one second hand. In the (new) car sales graphs we only see one of them.
      That is another good point. How many EVs get sold which don't replace an ICE car? In the USA the number of registered passenger cars grew by 5 million between 2015 and 2016.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 05, 2018, 07:50:58 pm
      There is some silliness involved here.  It's like asking when evolution will be done.  This is an experiment that's underway and you are trying to predict the outcome years before the experiment is over.

      As people have pointed out, we don't have a clear definition of what an EV is.  And when it comes to car sales what is a car?  Are trucks, sedans, and SUV's considered "cars"?  In some figures and charts they are and in others they are not.

      Then we have to factor in government subsidies and cash rebates.   If I were to buy an EV this month I would receive over $10,000 in tax credits and cash rebates.  If I wait a month that amount will decrease by one third.  As a result, I would expect December to exceptionally strong EV car sales with a huge drop off in January.  This will produce more skewed figures. 
      Try some imperial data.  EV adoption is going to depend on supply and demand.  Can we agree pretty much all car manufactures are ramping up EV car production?  There’s your supply.  Then ask consumers of ICE if the next new car (not truck, SUV, sedan) if it would be an EV?  I think you might find 10%-15% would consider it with maybe 1% to 3% actually making the purchase.

      Then ask same question to an EV owner.  I think you will find 99.7 of EV owners buy an EV again with less than 1% buying a ICE.
      It’s a slow creep but as more car manufactures produce EVs more consumers will buy them.
      Now as for refueling issues we are getting there.  I have two 50a EV plugs in my garage even though I only have one EV.  Yes, my next car will be a EV. (PEV)

      As for EV fueling stations all I’m hearing is more are being created.  Compare that to gas/petro stations in the US and you’ll see a lot have closed over the years.  I don’t know of anyone who would say today I’m going to open a gas station.
      So, we can agree and disagree over all of the data points we have so far.  But the real test will be to see what’s going to happen to the car companies.  With Volvo going all EV, and Ford wanting to become a “tech company” like Tesla, and GM closing 15 assembly plants could be in a few years consumers will have a very large selection of EV cars to choose from.  Then let’s not forget there are several companies working on EV light trucks.

      The experiment is not over.  Just give it a bit more time.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Neilm on December 05, 2018, 08:05:23 pm
      There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond). It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 05, 2018, 08:36:31 pm
      There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond). It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.

      I fall into that category.  I have two ICE which will be replaced by one EV.  The one I'd really like to replace is my truck.  Been looking at a conversation for my Toyota truck to EV with Stealth EV or placing a deposit on an W-15 EV truck.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 05, 2018, 08:55:17 pm
      There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond). It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.

      Interesting article. Thanks for posting.  It is a lot of speculation (as the author admits) but he makes well reasoned arguments. I think the coming slow and steady global economic decline will be a complicating factor in the conversion to EVs   IMHO of course.

      "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future"   ;D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 05, 2018, 08:57:19 pm
      The difference is that a mobile phone was better than a POT, and everybody wants something that's better. The same with the iPhone/smarphones: everybody wanted that. But EVs aren't better, they're worse in every sense except the Nm/torque figure, and notably more expensive than the equivalent ICE: hardly an attractive proposition. If it weren't so, people would already be buying them in flocks.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 05, 2018, 08:58:30 pm
      There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond). It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.
      That article is filled with 'I find', 'I expect', 'If', 'When' but no references to scientific fact based sources from which he got all these ideas. At the end it says 'I am not an analyst, these are my opinions'. So there you have. It is just pipe-dreaming wank and no factual information.

      For starters his idea why passenger cars are selling less is plain wrong. People want bigger cars like SUVs. This trend has been going on for at least a decade. He is also basically predicting all new cars sold in 2025 (6 years from now!) are EVs. My first question is: where do the batteries come from? Where is the charging infrastructure to support all those cars? And who is going to fix the EVs? For example: my youngest son is currently learning for a car mechanic but (much to my surprise) EVs are not covered in the teaching materials at all. That is going to be a major problem as well. In the Dutch e-Golf review I linked to the owner needed to leave his car at the dealership for over 3 weeks before they managed to fix it. An EV owner I spoke to last week brought his EV in for repair because it didn't charge. The dealer wanted to send him away 'because the car drove so what is the problem?'. It took some insisting to make the dealer look into the problem. Educating enough car mechanics to maintain a large fleet of EVs is not going to happen overnight.

      All in all there are some serious hurdles to be overcome which the author seems to casually forget about. There is an interesting graph in his article which also lists the adoption of tablets. The author forgets to mention that tablet sales have been declining for a couple of years already:
      (https://amp.businessinsider.com/images/57aa08f7db5ce94e008b58f3-1136-568.png)
      A quick adoption is not a guarantee for long term growth/success. Not all new technology is here to stay. Remember Bluray? Also on the decline.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 05, 2018, 09:16:36 pm
      There was a very interesting article I read that compared the take up of EVs to the take up of other hi tech devices (phones, home electricity, TVs, PCs smart phones and the like). It concluded that at some point there would be a dip in ICE car sales as people decide not to buy a new ICE car and wait for an EV. Then EV car sales pick up until they hit a tipping point at which point the EV sales really go. Full article is at https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225153-evs-oil-ice-impact-2023-beyond). It then goes on to extrapolate what would happen to the oil market at that point.
      That article is filled with 'I find', 'I expect', 'If', 'When' but no references to scientific fact based sources from which he got all these ideas.

      Yes it is.  Just like your posts in this thread!  ;D :box:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 05, 2018, 09:23:06 pm
      The difference is that a mobile phone was better than a POT, and everybody wants something that's better. The same with the iPhone/smarphones: everybody wanted that. But EVs aren't better, they're worse in every sense except the Nm/torque figure, and notably more expensive than the equivalent ICE: hardly an attractive proposition. If it weren't so, people would already be buying them in flocks.

      Yes, and look at iPhone/Apple sales now.  After many years of increased growth, Apple sales for the new iPhone aren't doing so well.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 06, 2018, 03:03:51 am
      The difference is that a mobile phone was better than a POT, and everybody wants something that's better. The same with the iPhone/smarphones: everybody wanted that. But EVs aren't better, they're worse in every sense except the Nm/torque figure, and notably more expensive than the equivalent ICE: hardly an attractive proposition. If it weren't so, people would already be buying them in flocks.

      Mobile phone sales plateau'd.  it's just that people moved from old dumb phones to smart phones. Now that they have them, growth has slowed, but it doesn't remove the fact that 80-90% of all new phones are smartphones.

      Let's visit your claim that EVs are worse in every sense (except torque)

      The only advantages of an ICE are

      As for EV advantages you've missed


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 06, 2018, 04:04:33 am
      The difference is that a mobile phone was better than a POT, and everybody wants something that's better. The same with the iPhone/smarphones: everybody wanted that. But EVs aren't better, they're worse in every sense except the Nm/torque figure, and notably more expensive than the equivalent ICE: hardly an attractive proposition. If it weren't so, people would already be buying them in flocks.

      Mobile phone sales plateau'd.  it's just that people moved from old dumb phones to smart phones. Now that they have them, growth has slowed, but it doesn't remove the fact that 80-90% of all new phones are smartphones.

      Let's visit your claim that EVs are worse in every sense (except torque)

      The only advantages of an ICE are
      • range
      • speed of refuelling

      As for EV advantages you've missed
      • cheaper to operate (1/8th the price for fuel in my jurisdiction)
      • lower emissions
      • quieter - a much improved environment inside
      • lower scheduled maintenance costs
      • resulting in a lower total cost of ownership over a 100,000km period

      I would add to that they are much more fun to drive as well.
      The lower cost for maitance is going to really financially hurt the atuo dealers.

      Interesting you find fuel costs are 1/8th the cost.  Where I am gas is $3.75/gallon.  Electricity is $0.12 to $0.48 per kWhr.  Time of Use raftes.  Cost for a fill up of electrity here is either one quarter the cost or if at peak rate is the same as gasoline.



       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 06, 2018, 06:55:31 am
      Interesting you find fuel costs are 1/8th the cost.  Where I am gas is $3.75/gallon.  Electricity is $0.12 to $0.48 per kWhr.  Time of Use raftes.  Cost for a fill up of electrity here is either one quarter the cost or if at peak rate is the same as gasoline.

      Sounds about right, you're paying a similar price for gasoline, and about double (at your cheapest tariff) what I pay for electricity (mine is that rate 24/7).

      My costs in CAD (USD)
      electricity C$0.091/kWh (US$0.068)
      gasoline C$1.319/litre (US$3.74/USGal)

      my car's usage (vs its ICE twin)
      17.4kWh/100km @ 0.091/kWh = C$1.58/100km
      8.5l/100km @ 1.319/l = C$11.21/100km

      Gasoline has dipped a little recently from 1.499 to 1.319/l around here recently, so my original 8x number I calculated a couple of months ago has drifted down to 7x.

      My actual fuel costs are a little lower, as the business park I'm in has 14 EVSE spread around (which are always busy), and allow 2hrs of employee charging/day; so for example I managed to grab about 8kWh this afternoon.  The free ride on this kind of charging probably isn't that long for the world, but doing it at home is easy enough, and my 40km/day could easily be replenished using just a regular 120V outlet.

      *Consumption figures, combined cycle, 2018 VW eGolf vs 2018 VW Golf from Transport Canada https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 06, 2018, 11:36:11 am
      It’s incredible how inexpensive your electricity prices are.  It’s going to be interesting to see what happens to our power company and our prices as our power company is responsible for that gas pipeline that exploded killing a dozen people not to long ago.  And they are responsible for starting several of the wild fires in our state including the most deadly wildfire that’s still burning.

      https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Hook-on-PGE-Tower-Eyed-as-Cause-of-Deadly-Camp-Fire-502035081.html (https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Hook-on-PGE-Tower-Eyed-as-Cause-of-Deadly-Camp-Fire-502035081.html)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on December 06, 2018, 04:28:22 pm


      Interesting you find fuel costs are 1/8th the cost.  Where I am gas is $3.75/gallon.  Electricity is $0.12 to $0.48 per kWhr.  Time of Use raftes.  Cost for a fill up of electrity here is either one quarter the cost or if at peak rate is the same as gasoline.
      At present there are no gas taxes (i.e. for roads) on electricity.  At some point that will have to change if the number of EVs increase.  Your rates are close to mine except if you use a bunch of electricty it goes to 55cents/kW-hr.  Also There are comercial charging stations here that chrage 70cents/kW-hr. 

      So charge at night. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 06, 2018, 04:47:43 pm


      Interesting you find fuel costs are 1/8th the cost.  Where I am gas is $3.75/gallon.  Electricity is $0.12 to $0.48 per kWhr.  Time of Use raftes.  Cost for a fill up of electrity here is either one quarter the cost or if at peak rate is the same as gasoline.
      At present there are no gas taxes (i.e. for roads) on electricity.  At some point that will have to change if the number of EVs increase.  Your rates are close to mine except if you use a bunch of electricty it goes to 55cents/kW-hr.  Also There are comercial charging stations here that chrage 70cents/kW-hr. 

      So charge at night.

      Wonder how they would impose the road tax.  Would have to be for miile driven.  I know for diesel fuel used in farming (no road tax) they dye the diesel pink.  Maybe they will do something similar for EV like up spinning the electrons used for charging EVs.

      Only way I think this could be done is mileage reporting to the government.  And since we all lie on our taxes (may not be Christian, but is’t suare as heck the American thing to do) it means the ca4r companies would have to report the odometer reading to the government.  Americans have tried to keep the government out of our bedrooms, but now they wast to get into our cars. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: dr.diesel on December 06, 2018, 04:56:08 pm
      Wonder how they would impose the road tax.

      That could make for an interesting future incentive!  Deferred or no road tax.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 06, 2018, 05:14:16 pm
      Wonder how they would impose the road tax.

      That could make for an interesting future incentive!  Deferred or no road tax.

      Look at what happens when France tried to raise gasoline taxes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 06, 2018, 05:42:38 pm
      Wonder how they would impose the road tax.
      That could make for an interesting future incentive!  Deferred or no road tax.
      In many European countries there is already some form of road tax. Whether you drive or not. The tariff depends on the weight and type of fuel.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 06, 2018, 06:00:31 pm
      It’s incredible how inexpensive your electricity prices are.  It’s going to be interesting to see what happens to our power company and our prices as our power company is responsible for that gas pipeline that exploded killing a dozen people not to long ago.  And they are responsible for starting several of the wild fires in our state including the most deadly wildfire that’s still burning.

      https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Hook-on-PGE-Tower-Eyed-as-Cause-of-Deadly-Camp-Fire-502035081.html (https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Hook-on-PGE-Tower-Eyed-as-Cause-of-Deadly-Camp-Fire-502035081.html)

      We have lots of rivers and mountains, that makes for readily available Hydro Electricity, and hence the low cost for electricity. Right now we don't have a tiered pricing system, but I would expect that we'll go from 8.5c (+tax) flat-rate to something more like 12c/6c (day/night) over the next 10 yrs, or that it will be an option (which I'll jump all over). I have a friend in the US who's overnight rate (while he's charging) was something silly cheap like 3c/kWh

      As for pipelines exploding, the main natural gas pipeline into the SW of our province exploded last month (no injuries), but they're saying there may be natural gas shortages this winter while they bring it back up to 100% capacity.

      As for discussions about road tax, the change from fuel-based is coming, or is it. There are a couple of possibilities, flat rating EVs, or just mileage reporting for everyone. From an environmental point of view, the tax per litre is good as it encourages lower consumption vehicles, which I think we can all agree are better for everyone involved.  The other option is go to a tiered system based on mileage (and consumption), which isn't going to be too hard to implement.  You'd be surprised how much info there is already out there.  Try pumping your VIN into mycarfax.com (free), and you'll probably see that your dealer/maintenance provider has already given out your mileage on multiple occasions.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 06, 2018, 06:56:57 pm
      It is likely to be a mileage self reporting thing, done at annual registration time.  Cheating will be controlled by access to maintenance records and stiff fines when under reporting is found.  Or by checking the license plates that pass red light cameras or speed check cameras.  Or just require a bit of a modification on RFID which reports VIN number and current mileage.  Would add virtually nothing to the cost of the vehicle.  And there are some pretty simple ways to catch and punish those who use one of the simple methods of disabling the system.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 06, 2018, 06:57:21 pm
      I pay $0.073/kWh -anytime of day. Most of the northwest and central south US pay less than $0.09/ Kwh on average. California is at the other extreme averaging over $0.15/kWh.  Yet even in California, charging off peak hours results in significant fuel savings compared to ICE fueling.

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=589831;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 06, 2018, 07:30:42 pm
      All data can be misleading.  I live in Oregon and my cost of electricity over the last two years has varied from 11.2 cents per kwH to 11.7 cents per kwH, not the 7-9 cents on mtdoc's chart.  There is no explicit off peak rate in my area, but there is a penalty rate for excessive consumption (and a poverty rate for those with very low consumption).  The actual rates are well hidden, not published on the web.  A regression analysis on my bills has not resulted in a coherent answer.  My consumption typically falls under the penalty rate, but not dramatically so, so I would expect that rate to increase if I was charging a vehicle on top of other consumption.  Still very competitive with gas prices.

      I suspect that the state average shown on mtdoc's chart includes some large industrial customers who get a sweat heart rate, dragging the overall average down.  Again the devil is in the details.  Your power company at your location with your contract and your consumption patterns.  My rates are likely to change soon as the local power company has just finished installing electronic meters with wireless reporting.  They explicitly stated that one of the reasons for the installation was to enable differential rates.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 06, 2018, 07:36:21 pm
      Not only that but it seems to me those rates don't include transport costs, taxes and subscription costs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 06, 2018, 07:52:03 pm
      All data can be misleading.  I live in Oregon and my cost of electricity over the last two years has varied from 11.2 cents per kwH to 11.7 cents per kwH, not the 7-9 cents

      It's a state average - which of course does not mean it represents what every person pays..

      Quote
      I suspect that the state average shown on mtdoc's chart includes some large industrial customers who get a sweat heart rate, dragging the overall average down.

      Well, the graphic is labelled "retail" - but I'm not sure exactly what that means. It's just a nice graphic that represents regional differences.

      A more current listing or state by state average of residential customer rates can be found here (https://www.electricchoice.com/electricity-prices-by-state/).   It shows that as of June 2018, Oregon's average rate is closer to (but still less) that what you pay.

      It lists Washington's average at $0.0979/kWh which is quite a bit more than what I pay. 

      In any case the point is the same.  In most parts of the US, residential customers pay low enough electricity rates that EVs are very cheap to fuel.   And even in the most expensive states (which also tend to have the highest gasoline prices) EVs are less expensive to fuel.  That's just the facts.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 06, 2018, 08:01:27 pm
      Those are the incomplete facts and thus useless. You should add more 'It's true. Really' to your statements.

      BTW if the battery costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km) to the running costs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 06, 2018, 08:02:25 pm
      Not only that but it seems to me those rates don't include transport costs, taxes and subscription costs.

      That's a red herring and you know it. It's been addressed before in this thread. Stop spreading FUD.

      Taxes are a very small fraction of electricity rates. Subscription costs are as well in most cases and subscription costs would be paid whether an EV was being charged or not.

      For example - the total of all my electricity taxes is equal to $0.005/kWh. 
      My monthly subscription cost is $29.69 no matter how much electricity I use. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 06, 2018, 08:03:32 pm
      And now add the transport costs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 06, 2018, 08:07:12 pm
      If you don't count the wear of the battery. If the battery costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km).

      More bullshit. Cost of EV replacement batteries vary and are rapidly decreasing and at 3000 km an ICE would require at least as much or more to maintain.

      Are you going to count the cost of engine and transmission rebuild, frequent oil changes, brake jobs, etc that an ICE requires but an EV doesn't? 

      You'e become a troll nctnico - you never supply any facts, just repeat the same old ICE centric talking points which have been refuted with actual facts numerous times in this thread.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 06, 2018, 09:13:02 pm
      Those are the incomplete facts and thus useless. You should add more 'It's true. Really' to your statements.

      BTW if the battery costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km) to the running costs.

      Let me re-write your sentence, to show you how out of touch your statement is:

      BTW if the battery ICE and transmission costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km) to the running costs.

      Why do anti-EVers think that ICE engines somehow last forever, but batteries and electric motors don't.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 06, 2018, 09:30:29 pm
      Why do anti-EVers think that ICE engines somehow last forever, but batteries and electric motors don't.

      They don't. They don't have the facts on their side so they argue dishonestly.  You did a nice job in your recent post acknowledging the area where ICE vehicles have an advantage (range/speed of refueling).  I have yet to see any of the anti-EV ers here acknowledge any of the several advantages EVs have. Instead the continue to make claims that have been proven wrong with actual referenced facts.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 06, 2018, 10:25:21 pm
      As I said earlier, it's a religious debate, you can't win. You'd have as much luck walking into a church and trying to use facts and data to convince people there that your god is better than theirs, it won't work, their belief is not based on facts to begin with so it cannot be swayed with facts, no matter how compelling they are.

      I was sold on the EV idea when the most conservative, anti-government, "everything is a conspiracy" right wing guy I know bought an EV because he ran the numbers and realized it would cover the vast majority of his driving, save time (no more gas stations) and ultimately save a considerable amount of money. We have people here acting as though EVs are some kind of speculation that some people think could maybe work some day while here in reality we have people who have actually been living with them for years and mysteriously not having all these problems that are sure to doom EVs in that alternate universe where they have not already caught on. Now that same guy, having had one for several years now his wife wants to replace her car with one too. He's going to keep his Subaru STi because it's fun but all the regular commuting will be handled by the EVs.

      Now IMO there are still some compelling advantages to ICE cars, I think they're a lot more fun to drive, I love the sound of an engine, I like shifting gears, I like tinkering with engines and I'm extremely fond of my own (nearly 30 year old) ICE powered car and will keep driving it until something happens to it but I recognize that I'm the exception to the norm. If I were forced to buy a <10 year old car I would absolutely get an EV, no question there, the ability to just plug it in when I get home and never having to stop and fill up again is a compelling enough advantage to me, not having to do oil changes would be icing on the cake. It would meet at least 95% of my driving needs and for anything else I can drive my partner's extremely boring but functional Prius if I need range, I can borrow a truck from one of several friends if I need to haul something, I can rent a car if I need something special, these are all trivial options that cover the edge cases.

      So we're back to the fact that it's a religious debate, people who *believe* EVs won't work are going to remain oblivious to the fact that they already do work and have been working for some time now. They will invent reasons an EV won't work for them and project those problems onto everyone else, pretending that the whole world has the same limitations they themselves have or pretend to have. Everything is an insurmountable problem to them, despite the fact that somehow other people have managed to come up with solutions. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 06, 2018, 11:11:22 pm
      As I said earlier, it's a religious debate, you can't win. You'd have as much luck walking into a church and trying to use facts and data to convince people there that your god is better than theirs, it won't work, their belief is not based on facts to begin with so it cannot be swayed with facts, no matter how compelling they are.

      You're right of course (and very well stated post overall).   I for one have no illusion of changing the mind of the couple of ICE only zealots here but seeing as this forum, of all places, should be a place were factual data is presented, I think it's important to not let the fact free assertions go unchallenged.  It's the same for climate change deniers or free energy proponents - you won't change their minds but responding to their assertions with the actual facts and data is important IMO (and entertaining).  Otherwise this forum will be no different than the plethora of fact free places on the interwebs..
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 07, 2018, 12:16:40 am
      So we're back to the fact that it's a religious debate, people who *believe* EVs won't work are going to remain oblivious to the fact that they already do work and have been working for some time now. They will invent reasons an EV won't work for them and project those problems onto everyone else, pretending that the whole world has the same limitations they themselves have or pretend to have. Everything is an insurmountable problem to them, despite the fact that somehow other people have managed to come up with solutions.

      You're right in that it's not a logic based argument
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 07, 2018, 12:26:07 am
      You're right of course (and very well stated post overall).   I for one have no illusion of changing the mind of the couple of ICE only zealots here but seeing as this forum, of all places, should be a place were factual data is presented

      Presented, yes, but as the old saying goes, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. Look around in the dodgy technologies areas, things like solar roadways and other sketchy things and you'll find some of the same people ranting against EVs defending various silly/demonstrably non-viable technologies. I have no good explanation for that except that some people's bullshit detector seems to be wired backwards. I've known a few folks like that, they'll believe in every bizarre conspiracy theory that comes down the pipe, but disbelieve all sorts of things that can be easily proven and accepted.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 07, 2018, 12:47:53 am
      Surprised no one has mentioned Chevrolet will STOP making Volts next year. 

      With GM closing several closing many car production facilities the one making Volts is on the list to be closed. 
      https://www.npr.org/2018/11/27/671090445/gm-will-end-production-of-its-car-of-the-future-chevy-volt (https://www.npr.org/2018/11/27/671090445/gm-will-end-production-of-its-car-of-the-future-chevy-volt)

      First GM accepts a tax payer bailout, then they screw the people who are buying their cars buying their cars.

      Chevy Volt Quarterly And Monthly Sales Way Up, Chevy Bolt Rising

      If you have been following our sales articles for the past few months, you know that Bolt inventories in the U.S. were weak throughout the entire 2018 model year. GM has been prioritizing exports of the popular electric hatchback, particularly to South Korea. So much so that 2018 international GM plug-in sales have eclipsed domestic for the first time ever.

      As a result, between March and July, the Chevy Volt has significantly edged out the Bolt EV in sales.
      https://insideevs.com/chevy-volt-bolt-sales/ (https://insideevs.com/chevy-volt-bolt-sales/)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 07, 2018, 12:48:42 am
      I agree, it is a religious argument.  On both sides.   And both sides are putting thumbs on the scale.  Presenting data which doesn't reflect the warts.  Pointing out that many, many people have purchased EVs and are quite happy with them is somewhat like pointing out that their are literally millions of people in this country that don't own a car, and are happy with the choice.  It works for them.  But it doesn't mean it is a solution for everyone.

      Borrow a friends pickup.  Yeah, you just need a friend on the other side of the argument so that he has one to borrow.  Not a problem at the moment, but it will become one.  Use the wife's car for range.  Again, works for the moment, but what happens when she doesn't want to stop at gas stations any more and buys her own EV.

      EVs are perfectly practical for most uses now.  And they will grow dramatically in the market.  Though the projection I posted earlier is unlikely to happen, there are a number of factors that are likely to add a couple of years (or maybe more) to the equation.  And solutions for the edge cases will come along, but the ones suggested are temporary and local.  The other thing that will happen is that as EV's take over the infrastructure the infrastructure to support ICE will wither away, making them impractical.  Which will mean that folks will just have to give up those activities that don't work for EV's.  It won't be the end of the world, but some things will be lost. That process is probably a decade or slightly more behind the EV takeover.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on December 07, 2018, 12:55:08 am
      Those are the incomplete facts and thus useless. You should add more 'It's true. Really' to your statements.

      BTW if the battery costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km) to the running costs.

      Let me re-write your sentence, to show you how out of touch your statement is:

      BTW if the battery ICE and transmission costs US $8k to replace and lasts for 300k km then you'd have to add $ 2.7 cents per km (=$2.7 per 100km) to the running costs.

      Why do anti-EVers think that ICE engines somehow last forever, but batteries and electric motors don't.

      Actually, electric motors do last nearly forever, batteries are another question altogether.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 07, 2018, 12:59:22 am
      I agree, it is a religious argument.  On both sides.   And both sides are putting thumbs on the scale.  Presenting data which doesn't reflect the warts.  Pointing out that many, many people have purchased EVs and are quite happy with them is somewhat like pointing out that their are literally millions of people in this country that don't own a car, and are happy with the choice.  It works for them.  But it doesn't mean it is a solution for everyone.

      Borrow a friends pickup.  Yeah, you just need a friend on the other side of the argument so that he has one to borrow.  Not a problem at the moment, but it will become one.  Use the wife's car for range.  Again, works for the moment, but what happens when she doesn't want to stop at gas stations any more and buys her own EV.

      EVs are perfectly practical for most uses now.  And they will grow dramatically in the market.  Though the projection I posted earlier is unlikely to happen, there are a number of factors that are likely to add a couple of years (or maybe more) to the equation.  And solutions for the edge cases will come along, but the ones suggested are temporary and local.  The other thing that will happen is that as EV's take over the infrastructure the infrastructure to support ICE will wither away, making them impractical.  Which will mean that folks will just have to give up those activities that don't work for EV's.  It won't be the end of the world, but some things will be lost. That process is probably a decade or slightly more behind the EV takeover.

      We are tyring to perdict the outcome of an ongoing experimet while we are part of the experiment.

      This is a clasic example of Evolution.  Instead of spices, it's makes and models of cars.  It's survival of the fittest.  There were a couple of times where we thought Tesla would be extinct.  Instead it's Volvo ICE cars and Chevrolet Volts.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 07, 2018, 01:48:14 am
      I agree, it is a religious argument.  On both sides.   And both sides are putting thumbs on the scale.  Presenting data which doesn't reflect the warts.

      Not quite.  There has been lots of data provided by one side showing rapid growth of EV sales and the lower cost of fueling EVs and none by the other that refutes this.  Of course all people have biases and will put forth their argument in the best light possible but when one side has no data and only opinion and continues to ignore the evidence presented without presenting any of their own it's rather silly. Presenting both sides as factually equivalent is akin to presenting both sides of the climate change debate as factually equivalent.

      Quote
        Pointing out that many, many people have purchased EVs and are quite happy with them is somewhat like pointing out that their are literally millions of people in this country that don't own a car, and are happy with the choice.  It works for them.  But it doesn't mean it is a solution for everyone.
      Of course.  I've seen no one here dispute that EVs are not the best solution for everyone. No one!.  That's not the question.

      The question is "when will EVs become mainstream?"  As boffin points out, the answer to that is they already have.  No they have not become the majority of autos - far from it, but look around, all manufacturers have introduced, are introducing or plan to introduce multiple EV models.  The media is ripe with EV articles. As available EV options increase (trucks, SUVs, etc) growth rates will only increase.

      It has been almost 1 year since this thread was started and in that time EV sale volumes have risen dramatically and the doubling time has shortened substantially. Numerous new EVs are on the market.  There is almost zero sales or new releases of other alternative fuel vehicles. Again, these are just raw facts.

      Everyone acknowledges that EVs have some disadvantages compared to ICE vehicles and that they will not work as well for some people. That's not the question and never has been.
      It's a strawman argument to present it as the issue.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 07, 2018, 03:02:11 am
      Actually, electric motors do last nearly forever, batteries are another question altogether.
      Do you have information supporting that claim? Electric motors can have an extremely long life, but motors like that are quite big. Motors with a high power density often have quite poor lifetimes, due to bearing wear, thermal stress and other factors. The motors in electric cars are very compact for their power output. Its not obvious that they will have terrific lifetimes. I'm quite interested in what current designs are actually achieving.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 07, 2018, 05:12:36 am
      Well the Leaf has sold large numbers and has been on the market for 8 years, I couldn't find any data regarding significant motor failures so at this point in time I'd say it's a non issue. I think it's reasonable to assume that like most ICE powered cars, the motor will last the life of the car. Induction and BLDC motors have essentially one moving part, the rotor and a pair of bearings. So long as the windings are sufficiently insulated I would expect them to far outlast the rest of the car in most cases.

      According to stats I have found, the average life of a car is around 8-10 years, so using the Leaf as an example, the early models are getting up there now. I personally keep cars much longer than that but it's too soon to say how they'll do in the very long term. I suspect the batteries will be the main limiting factor, followed by the body and interior, the latter being an issue with most cars. I'm on my second set of seats in my daily driver.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on December 07, 2018, 07:32:37 am
      Actually, electric motors do last nearly forever, batteries are another question altogether.
      Do you have information supporting that claim? Electric motors can have an extremely long life, but motors like that are quite big. Motors with a high power density often have quite poor lifetimes, due to bearing wear, thermal stress and other factors. The motors in electric cars are very compact for their power output. Its not obvious that they will have terrific lifetimes. I'm quite interested in what current designs are actually achieving.
      In my experience, on ships with hundreds of electric motors of all types and sizes, the most unreliable are the 0,5 to 3KW brushed AC with no electronic “soft start”. They are considered disposable.
      Other motors have been running 24/7/365 for 5 years or have to suffer brutal load changes (pumps, propulsion or water cooling compressor) and have needed 0 maintenance aside from insulation testing.

      Just say that putting all electric motors in the same bag is as silly as lumping Fiat FIRE and LS3’s together.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: MasterBuilder on December 07, 2018, 07:57:15 am
      I would concur on the motor life issue. The main motors on container cranes which I worked on would usually outlast the crane. These motors would still be going strong while the crane would have rusted away and become structurally unsound. This would be with 20 or 30 years of regular use in a harsh environment. These were heavily engineered with power outputs about 500kW for hoist and gantry.

      The electric motor is basically a solved problem and a well known quantity. Not to say there isn't miniaturisation and efficiency advances to be made, but I wouldn't be worried about service life. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on December 07, 2018, 10:34:05 am
      Progress is slowly made :)

      VW, the biggest car maker worldwide, acknowledged the death of the ICE, and even predicts a timeline.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-04/vw-says-the-next-generation-of-combustion-cars-will-be-its-last (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-04/vw-says-the-next-generation-of-combustion-cars-will-be-its-last)

      Now that's a hell of a shift.
      A few months ago, Audi was still touting the natural gas ICE as THE future. Now it's gone.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 07, 2018, 11:54:54 am
      You did a nice job in your recent post acknowledging the area where ICE vehicles have an advantage (range/speed of refueling).  I have yet to see any of the anti-EV ers here acknowledge any of the several advantages EVs have.

      Because I'm busy now, but I'll do it soon.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 07, 2018, 03:45:33 pm
      Progress is slowly made :)

      VW, the biggest car maker worldwide, acknowledged the death of the ICE, and even predicts a timeline.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-04/vw-says-the-next-generation-of-combustion-cars-will-be-its-last (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-04/vw-says-the-next-generation-of-combustion-cars-will-be-its-last)

      Now that's a hell of a shift.
      A few months ago, Audi was still touting the natural gas ICE as THE future. Now it's gone.
      However the car industry as a whole says that at most 25% of the new cars sold will be EVs in 2030 (*). Perhaps Volkswagen wants to move away from a competitive market OR they have to sell more EVs to compensate CO2 emissions from the high performance cars under their higher end brands like Porsche, Bugatti and Audi. In 2021 the average car sold by a manufacturer must emit less than 95grams of CO2 per km according to EU regulations. That is going to be a tough challenge because people are liking the bigger cars better nowadays.

      * Dutch article from today: https://www.ad.nl/auto/grotere-en-zwaardere-auto-s-weer-in-trek~aa8fa9f6/ (https://www.ad.nl/auto/grotere-en-zwaardere-auto-s-weer-in-trek~aa8fa9f6/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 07, 2018, 04:08:42 pm
      Well the Leaf has sold large numbers and has been on the market for 8 years, I couldn't find any data regarding significant motor failures so at this point in time I'd say it's a non issue. I think it's reasonable to assume that like most ICE powered cars, the motor will last the life of the car. Induction and BLDC motors have essentially one moving part, the rotor and a pair of bearings. So long as the windings are sufficiently insulated I would expect them to far outlast the rest of the car in most cases.
      Don't forget the drive electronics in an EV. Sure an AC induction motor (with proper cooling) can run on 3 phase power until the bearings wear out but there is much more to an EV than just an AC induction motor. Also car parts are engineered for a certain lifetime so expect the manufacturers to design the motors to have a limit on their useful life as well to keep costs low and stay competitive. All in all comparing a motor from a commercial EV to an industrial motor is not a good indication of expected lifetime.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 07, 2018, 04:43:49 pm
      netInfo is correct.  Automaker are in a price competitive industry where the elimination of on screw increases profits.  And yes automakers design with statistical failure in mind.

      Question I have is why are companies like VW and Chevy discounting PHEVs?  For many Americans this is style perfect compromise between EV and ICE until more EV changers become available.  California like Texas and many other west coast states are quit large with many miles between cities and charging stations.  PHEVs are perfect compromise. EV for driving around town, and EV/ICE for longer distances.  From the SF Bay Area we visit family in Souther Oregon which is around 400 miles.  With our PHEV we can make the trip in six seven.  Once past Sacramento, which we do not go through changing stations likes cities are few.  And for long stretches there are no cities, just gas satiations.  Not so sure I would make this trip in an BEV.

      There are rumors it costs Chevy $70-$80,000 to produce a Volt (PHEV) and the govnernt is paying GM a subsidy of $40,000 per car.  (Not sure if this is true or GM propaganda.). I suspect that was true maybe for the first production year, but car has been out for 8-9 years?   

      Or is this the “goverenet’s” way of forcing all of us to buy/drive BEVs?   



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 07, 2018, 05:50:25 pm
      I would concur on the motor life issue. The main motors on container cranes which I worked on would usually outlast the crane. These motors would still be going strong while the crane would have rusted away and become structurally unsound. This would be with 20 or 30 years of regular use in a harsh environment. These were heavily engineered with power outputs about 500kW for hoist and gantry.


      That's an area I know rather little about. What sort of motors do big cranes use and how are they controlled? I always liked big machinery like that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on December 07, 2018, 06:17:39 pm
      I would concur on the motor life issue. The main motors on container cranes which I worked on would usually outlast the crane. These motors would still be going strong while the crane would have rusted away and become structurally unsound. This would be with 20 or 30 years of regular use in a harsh environment. These were heavily engineered with power outputs about 500kW for hoist and gantry.


      That's an area I know rather little about. What sort of motors do big cranes use and how are they controlled? I always liked big machinery like that.
      On the ships I have worked on, the electric motors are not in the crane.
      Under the crane pedestal, under deck, on the tank top, electric motors drive hydraulic accumulators that provide the motive force for the crane.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 07, 2018, 08:16:17 pm
      I would concur on the motor life issue. The main motors on container cranes which I worked on would usually outlast the crane. These motors would still be going strong while the crane would have rusted away and become structurally unsound. This would be with 20 or 30 years of regular use in a harsh environment. These were heavily engineered with power outputs about 500kW for hoist and gantry.


      That's an area I know rather little about. What sort of motors do big cranes use and how are they controlled? I always liked big machinery like that.
      On the ships I have worked on, the electric motors are not in the crane.
      Under the crane pedestal, under deck, on the tank top, electric motors drive hydraulic accumulators that provide the motive force for the crane.

      After Word War II America took "stole" two German cranes used in shipping.  One was used in Long Beach, not sure about the other one.

      Google "Herman the German" crane.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on December 07, 2018, 10:25:09 pm

      Don't forget the drive electronics in an EV.
      Well, I have not heard of many breakdown in this area, especially in hybrids like the Prius and Honda Civic hybrid, like we have in our family.  There were some issues with the battery controls on the Honda, and they had a LOT of trouble with the 2011 and earlier batteries (NiMH).  But, I have not heard of any failures of the motor drive electronics on either of those cars.  (I researched this a lot before buying.)

      You can check online for trouble reports for these various cars.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 07, 2018, 10:32:27 pm

      After Word War II America took "stole" two German cranes used in shipping.  One was used in Long Beach, not sure about the other one.

      Google "Herman the German" crane.

      Amazingly it's still around, however Herman the German, is actually Finnish.

      And Liebherr (the big crane people) are Swiss aren't they ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 07, 2018, 11:24:08 pm
      Well, I have not heard of many breakdown in this area, especially in hybrids like the Prius and Honda Civic hybrid, like we have in our family.  There were some issues with the battery controls on the Honda, and they had a LOT of trouble with the 2011 and earlier batteries (NiMH).  But, I have not heard of any failures of the motor drive electronics on either of those cars.  (I researched this a lot before buying.)

      You can check online for trouble reports for these various cars.

      Jon


      Reliability of the electronics another made up non-issue.

      When hybrids first came out, I predicted they would be dropping like flies when they hit about 10 years old as all the batteries started to fail, with replacement costs being higher than the value of the car. Turns out I was wrong, love them or hate them, hybrid cars have proven to be exceptionally reliable. My partner has a 2002 Prius that is still going strong on the original battery. It is arguably the most boring car I have ever driven, but lack of reliability is not one of its faults. They have been very popular as taxis so there has been a very large sample of hybrids with more than 300,000 miles on them. Pure EVs are turning out to be similar, they've been on the road for around a decade now, where are these huge failure rates and how long must we wait to see them?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 07, 2018, 11:42:58 pm
      Well, I have not heard of many breakdown in this area, especially in hybrids like the Prius and Honda Civic hybrid, like we have in our family.  There were some issues with the battery controls on the Honda, and they had a LOT of trouble with the 2011 and earlier batteries (NiMH).  But, I have not heard of any failures of the motor drive electronics on either of those cars.  (I researched this a lot before buying.)

      You can check online for trouble reports for these various cars.

      Jon
      Reliability of the electronics another made up non-issue.
      No it isn't. The current crop of EVs is not designed to be made for the lowest cost. Wait until the manufacturers start to cut corners because manufacturing  volume will make it worth while to save a few cents. There are many cars out there with problems in the electronics due to poor design choices. Think about mounting a circuit board with through-hole components directly on a diesel engine. You'd say it is stupid but Opel/GM did it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 08, 2018, 02:10:54 am
      The bottom line is the EVs should be intrinsically more reliable.  At least pure EV.  Far fewer moving parts, less vibration, less waste heat.  As we have all experienced, enough cost cutting drive can make anything unreliable.  How this plays out in the EV world is not predictable at the moment.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 08, 2018, 05:21:55 am

      After Word War II America took "stole" two German cranes used in shipping.  One was used in Long Beach, not sure about the other one.

      Google "Herman the German" crane.

      Amazingly it's still around, however Herman the German, is actually Finnish.

      And Liebherr (the big crane people) are Swiss aren't they ?

      Are you sure about it being Finish?  Found a source here saying it was built by a German company whih sill appears to be making carnes today.
      http://www.tideworks.com/2017/11/15/herman-the-german/ (http://www.tideworks.com/2017/11/15/herman-the-german/)

      Not so sure the Nazi’s would have ordered something of this size and cost from a non-German company at the time. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 08, 2018, 07:20:00 am

      After Word War II America took "stole" two German cranes used in shipping.  One was used in Long Beach, not sure about the other one.

      Google "Herman the German" crane.

      Amazingly it's still around, however Herman the German, is actually Finnish.

      And Liebherr (the big crane people) are Swiss aren't they ?

      Are you sure about it being Finish?  Found a source here saying it was built by a German company whih sill appears to be making carnes today.
      http://www.tideworks.com/2017/11/15/herman-the-german/ (http://www.tideworks.com/2017/11/15/herman-the-german/)

      Not so sure the Nazi’s would have ordered something of this size and cost from a non-German company at the time.

      You're right, built by the Germans, by what is now a Finnish company.  But it's a very cool story
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 08, 2018, 07:22:20 am
      Think about mounting a circuit board with through-hole components directly on a diesel engine. You'd say it is stupid but Opel/GM did it.

      So what you're saying is that an ICE car won't even last 300,000km ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 08, 2018, 10:26:37 am
      Think about mounting a circuit board with through-hole components directly on a diesel engine. You'd say it is stupid but Opel/GM did it.
      So what you're saying is that an ICE car won't even last 300,000km ?
      No, I'm saying that cost cutting leads to premature failures due to design errors.

      Fortunately a lot can be fixed in software nowadays:
      https://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/03/volkswagen-recalling-5600-electric-cars-due-to-a-stalling-problem/ (https://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/03/volkswagen-recalling-5600-electric-cars-due-to-a-stalling-problem/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 08, 2018, 10:29:15 am
      The bottom line is the EVs should be intrinsically more reliable.  At least pure EV.  Far fewer moving parts, less vibration, less waste heat.
      As I wrote before that is not true. For starters there are thousands of welds in the battery pack and most EVs have a more complicated cooling/heating system for the batteries & electronics compared to an ICE. There are just as many places where things can go wrong. You have to look at the entire system that makes a car move forward.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on December 08, 2018, 01:01:48 pm
      The bottom line is the EVs should be intrinsically more reliable.  At least pure EV.  Far fewer moving parts, less vibration, less waste heat.
      As I wrote before that is not true. For starters there are thousands of welds in the battery pack and most EVs have a more complicated cooling/heating system for the batteries & electronics compared to an ICE. There are just as many places where things can go wrong. You have to look at the entire system that makes a car move forward.
      Have ever taken apart an ICE motor? There are thousands of places the slightest casting or machining defect could damage an engine after it ran trouble free for 100 000km.
      And contrary to a dodgy weld on a nice flat grid pattern, finding where the cooling is sucking in air at only certain RPM, it is rather hard to zero on.
      In rising frustration, one tends to dismantle the whole bloody engine  and change all the darn gaskets.
      Only to find, while putting it back together, that’s is the iffing flexible to the expansion tank.
      ITS ALWAYS THE BLOODY FLEXIBLES, WHY DOES THE MANUAL NEVER ASK TO CHECK THEM?!
      “Pants”, erm, or so I have heard.
      From a friend.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 08, 2018, 02:38:05 pm
       :palm: Your own story already says it: in 99.9% of the cases is it something simple like a hose or a lose/bad electrical connection. Not doing fault finding in a structured manner is just poor judgement from the person trying to find the problem.

      And no, you can't visually inspect welds because the part of the weld which matters the most is invisible.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on December 08, 2018, 03:44:26 pm
      I was exaggerating a bit, but I do work on large HFO/MDO engines.
      We have to do constant monitoring and repairs. Please don’t say my colleagues are incompetent, but we often struggle to find the source of certain problems (even when the man from MAN is here):
      - Injector heads dying too fast.
      - Injector springs breaking - and yes, it is always the impossible to inspect inner one.
      - cooling issues despite having brand new box coolers that are better in every way than the bad but faultless predecessors.
      - preheating pump motors dying after 4 years when they should last 20.
      - Cracked crankcase mist vent pipe that manufacturer cannot manage to remanufacture...
      - Exhaust heat sensors that just die in random conditions.
      - Turbo oil seals that fail slowly.
      And it goes on, but this is considered normal ops, even better than average and we have a 100% reliability record. These are marine engines built to far higher standards than car engines.
      These engine supply 5 propulsion motors (3 pods, 2 thrusters) an during the last five years we have just added grease to the bearings. That’s it, a few CCs grease.
      We also have large battery packs (small rooms), and nothing to report on those - even welds.
      The only main drive electrical nuisance to report are two large capacitors that failed in a cloud of smoke, the sparkies can fix that in minutes, even an injector is a least an hour job.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 08, 2018, 06:17:10 pm
      The bottom line is the EVs should be intrinsically more reliable.  At least pure EV.  Far fewer moving parts, less vibration, less waste heat.

      Exactly right. Anyone who has rebuilt ICEs or transmission can attest to the ill effects of heat and metal on metal friction that is inherent in ICE and ICE vehicle transmission operation.   Electron flow does not cause such wear.  Sure EVs have some moving parts that will be subject to wear but far fewer and the ones they have are not subject to the kind of heat, friction and mechanical forces that and ICE and transmission are.

      Anyone claiming that EVs are equally susceptible to this kind wear and tear is either uniformed or being purposely deceitful. This is an engineering forum so thankfully most here will understand these issues.

      Quote
        As we have all experienced, enough cost cutting drive can make anything unreliable.  How this plays out in the EV world is not predictable at the moment.

      Yes.  As EVs become more widely adopted, more models, including economy models built at the lowest possible cost will surely have their own unique reliability issues. The future is always uncertain but the track record of EV reliability to date is extremely good and there is no question that the routine maintenance costs are much lower than an ICE vehicle.  As you say, from a purely engineering perspective, there is no reason not to think that EVs will in general be more reliable and require less maintenance than ICE vehicles.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 08, 2018, 07:57:14 pm

      Quote
        As we have all experienced, enough cost cutting drive can make anything unreliable.  How this plays out in the EV world is not predictable at the moment.

      Yes.  As EVs become more widely adopted, more models, including economy models built at the lowest possible cost will surely have their own unique reliability issues. The future is always uncertain but the track record of EV reliability to date is extremely good and there is no question that the routine maintenance costs are much lower than an ICE vehicle.  As you say, from a purely engineering perspective, there is no reason not to think that EVs will in general be more reliable and require less maintenance than ICE vehicles.

      The CFL story is a testimony to what can happen.  CFLs were predicted to have excellent life.  Many had good experiences with early CFLs.  But as the costs were forced down and they flooded the market there were many that ended up with worse life than the incandescents they replaced.   Some of that was from unexpected (at least by those predicting long life) gotchas.  Who knew that people put light bulbs top down in unvented enclosures?  Or that a retractable shop light gets dropped regularly and put in close proximity to exhaust manifolds and other hot objects.

      I would be cautious about saying from a "purely engineering perspective" since that implies that cost is not an engineering function.  It also implies that reliability is a purely quantitative and well understood function.  Many, many engineers from those involved in CFL manufacturing on up those who did the space shuttle reliability predictions have found that the latter is not true.  The only really solid reliability information comes from lots of real world experience with fleets of comparable products.  The first generation of EVs are not representative and future results will both benefit from the learning experiences on the early ones, and suffer from the need to build in high volumes and low cost.

      One obvious thing that will happen with EVs is that people will run out of charge.  No reason to think people driving EVs will be smarter or more diligent than those driving ICEVs.  Currently there is no simple fix like the tow service with a gas can.  The most obvious solution, a tow vehicle with a high capacity generator may not work out economically (assuming half hour to hour charge time plus transit time it can only get used a few times a day.)  Towing back to a charge point works from the tow companies economic standpoint, but will not fly well with the public, which wishes fixes for its stupidity to be painless, or nearly so.  And there is no way to implement the poor mans solution, hoofing it with a gas can.  It may be possible to call a friend and get some kind of a charge from his EV, though that requires something not built into current EVs AFAIK.  And of course they may get lucky and roll to a halt within an extension cord of an outlet. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Jester on December 08, 2018, 07:58:09 pm
      Think about some of the most common repairs required on a typical car:


      None of these exist on a EV!

      Looks like we will be dealing with tires and brakes and the odd other issue 90% of the stuff that breaks will no longer be part of the car.

      We have 5 Tesla's and 1 Bolt or Volt or whatever they call it within 1 block of home, I think EV's will come faster than some think.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 08, 2018, 08:15:13 pm
      But then you have car companies like Ford, Chevy and VW discontinuing EVs of the hybrid flavor.  This is making harder for consumers to transition to EV of the BEV flavor.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 08, 2018, 09:06:33 pm
      The CFL story is a testimony to what can happen.  CFLs were predicted to have excellent life.  Many had good experiences with early CFLs.  But as the costs were forced down and they flooded the market there were many that ended up with worse life than the incandescents they replaced.   Some of that was from unexpected (at least by those predicting long life) gotchas.  Who knew that people put light bulbs top down in unvented enclosures?  Or that a retractable shop light gets dropped regularly and put in close proximity to exhaust manifolds and other hot objects.

      I would be cautious about saying from a "purely engineering perspective" since that implies that cost is not an engineering function.  It also implies that reliability is a purely quantitative and well understood function.  Many, many engineers from those involved in CFL manufacturing on up those who did the space shuttle reliability predictions have found that the latter is not true.  The only really solid reliability information comes from lots of real world experience with fleets of comparable products.  The first generation of EVs are not representative and future results will both benefit from the learning experiences on the early ones, and suffer from the need to build in high volumes and low cost.

      One obvious thing that will happen with EVs is that people will run out of charge.  No reason to think people driving EVs will be smarter or more diligent than those driving ICEVs.  Currently there is no simple fix like the tow service with a gas can.  The most obvious solution, a tow vehicle with a high capacity generator may not work out economically (assuming half hour to hour charge time plus transit time it can only get used a few times a day.)  Towing back to a charge point works from the tow companies economic standpoint, but will not fly well with the public, which wishes fixes for its stupidity to be painless, or nearly so.  And there is no way to implement the poor mans solution, hoofing it with a gas can.  It may be possible to call a friend and get some kind of a charge from his EV, though that requires something not built into current EVs AFAIK.  And of course they may get lucky and roll to a halt within an extension cord of an outlet.


      The race to the bottom is a problem with ALL goods, not just CFLs or cars. People tend to be short sighted and/or uninformed and shop almost purely by price and cosmetic style, so the best selling goods are usually the absolute cheapest. For various reasons that seems to be less true with cars, after 100+ years of development and orders of magnitude greater complexity, modern cars are more reliable and longer lived than ever.

      Yes, running out of charge is going to happen to some people just as they now run out of gas, and the can of gas solution won't work here, but simply towing the whole car is not really that big of a deal. Cars break down all the time and have to be towed, that infrastructure is already in place and widely used, and given the cost savings vs gasoline and the time savings vs having to stop and fill up every couple weeks or so even if one is a forgetful clod and runs out of juice now and then the total hassle and cost spread out over time is likely to be less. Have the car towed either home or to the nearest charging station and get an Uber/Lyft/whatever ride to your destination just as you'd do if you have a breakdown that can't be easily fixed on the side of the road.

      It's not that hard to avoid running out of power though, none of the EV owners I know have ever run out. You just have to get past the gasoline mentality of running the car until empty and then filling up. You plug in each night and the car is full every morning, it's fantastic, it's the one thing every EV owner I've met raves about the most. Planning around range is easy because you start out full every day and people who buy EVs are people who commute well within the range of the vehicle they buy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 08, 2018, 10:40:33 pm
      The CFL story is a testimony to what can happen.  CFLs were predicted to have excellent life.  Many had good experiences with early CFLs.  But as the costs were forced down and they flooded the market there were many that ended up with worse life than the incandescents they replaced.   Some of that was from unexpected (at least by those predicting long life) gotchas.  Who knew that people put light bulbs top down in unvented enclosures?  Or that a retractable shop light gets dropped regularly and put in close proximity to exhaust manifolds and other hot objects.

      I would be cautious about saying from a "purely engineering perspective" since that implies that cost is not an engineering function.  It also implies that reliability is a purely quantitative and well understood function.  Many, many engineers from those involved in CFL manufacturing on up those who did the space shuttle reliability predictions have found that the latter is not true.  The only really solid reliability information comes from lots of real world experience with fleets of comparable products.  The first generation of EVs are not representative and future results will both benefit from the learning experiences on the early ones, and suffer from the need to build in high volumes and low cost.

      One obvious thing that will happen with EVs is that people will run out of charge.  No reason to think people driving EVs will be smarter or more diligent than those driving ICEVs. Currently there is no simple fix like the tow service with a gas can.  The most obvious solution, a tow vehicle with a high capacity generator may not work out economically (assuming half hour to hour charge time plus transit time it can only get used a few times a day.)  Towing back to a charge point works from the tow companies economic standpoint, but will not fly well with the public, which wishes fixes for its stupidity to be painless, or nearly so.  And there is no way to implement the poor mans solution, hoofing it with a gas can.  It may be possible to call a friend and get some kind of a charge from his EV, though that requires something not built into current EVs AFAIK.  And of course they may get lucky and roll to a halt within an extension cord of an outlet.


      The race to the bottom is a problem with ALL goods, not just CFLs or cars. People tend to be short sighted and/or uninformed and shop almost purely by price and cosmetic style, so the best selling goods are usually the absolute cheapest. For various reasons that seems to be less true with cars, after 100+ years of development and orders of magnitude greater complexity, modern cars are more reliable and longer lived than ever.

      Yes, running out of charge is going to happen to some people just as they now run out of gas, and the can of gas solution won't work here, but simply towing the whole car is not really that big of a deal. Cars break down all the time and have to be towed, that infrastructure is already in place and widely used, and given the cost savings vs gasoline and the time savings vs having to stop and fill up every couple weeks or so even if one is a forgetful clod and runs out of juice now and then the total hassle and cost spread out over time is likely to be less. Have the car towed either home or to the nearest charging station and get an Uber/Lyft/whatever ride to your destination just as you'd do if you have a breakdown that can't be easily fixed on the side of the road.

      It's not that hard to avoid running out of power though, none of the EV owners I know have ever run out. You just have to get past the gasoline mentality of running the car until empty and then filling up. You plug in each night and the car is full every morning, it's fantastic, it's the one thing every EV owner I've met raves about the most. Planning around range is easy because you start out full every day and people who buy EVs are people who commute well within the range of the vehicle they buy.

      I am going to start by saying I am really not for or against electric cars.  As I said earlier, if the Tesla X came at a substantially lower price point there would be one in my driveway.  But this whole thread on both sides seems to confuse fact and opinion.  To illustrate I coded the above quote into blue for fact and red for opinion.  With purple for a couple of sentences that are sort of on the line.

      I doubt that EV owners rave about the plugging in process.  About not going to the gas station, sure.  About being full everyday, sure.  That plugging in is a minor inconvenience, sure.  But, saying WOW, maybe I'll go out and run around the block just so I can plug in again seems really unlikely to me. 

      Range planning is easy - for your daily commute.  Not so much in other cases.  I have a friend who owns, and loves a Leaf.  He has on rare occasions had range problems.  Caused by things like an unexpected trip to an offsite meeting or the like.  I have run out of gas in an ICE on a couple of occasions, and come very close on a couple others.  All cases were on cross country trips where a planned gas stop didn't exist for one reason or another.  Bad atlas/gps information.  A recently closed station.  Or one with very limited hours.  EVs will run into similar problems.  And will fare either better or worse depending on the situation.  In a couple of my outage cases an EV could have relatively easily begged a 110V connection and merely had to cool their heels while they got enough charge.  In a couple of other cases the whole business situation had dried up and blown away, so no easy electric solution.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 08, 2018, 10:49:34 pm
      Yes, running out of charge is going to happen to some people just as they now run out of gas, and the can of gas solution won't work here, but simply towing the whole car is not really that big of a deal.
      Until you get the bill. A few liters / gallon of gas costs you a few dollars / euros. Towing a car can get 10 times more expensive and take way more time. Although with some EVs you get a free tow service in case you run out of charge.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 08, 2018, 11:24:13 pm
      Here’s a good piece of American trivia.  The wife of President Woodrow  Wilson, Edith owned one of the first electric cars.  This was before she became the unofficial President of the United States after Wilson had a stroke.

      Reference source  More Perfect Episode 7.  Or the 25th Amendment.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 08, 2018, 11:53:42 pm
      Yes, running out of charge is going to happen to some people just as they now run out of gas, and the can of gas solution won't work here, but simply towing the whole car is not really that big of a deal.
      Until you get the bill. A few liters / gallon of gas costs you a few dollars / euros. Towing a car can get 10 times more expensive and take way more time. Although with some EVs you get a free tow service in case you run out of charge.

      I pay about $20 a year extra on my auto insurance for free roadside assistance and towing. I've never needed to use it to be towed. I have used when I've run out of gas...

      I suspect tow trucks in the near future will have the ability to do a small rapid charge - enough to get an EV to the nearest charging station.

      FWIW - my Volt has a feature where if it is out of gas and out of charge it goes into a "limp home" mode which allows it to drive a reduced speed for some miles by using the lower 20% of battery capacity that is normally never used.  I believe some other EVs have this as well.  So in that regard EV owners may be less likely to run out of fuel and find themselves stuck on the road than ICE drivers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 09, 2018, 12:29:20 am
      I doubt that EV owners rave about the plugging in process.  About not going to the gas station, sure.  About being full everyday, sure.  That plugging in is a minor inconvenience, sure.  But, saying WOW, maybe I'll go out and run around the block just so I can plug in again seems really unlikely to me. 


      You are missing the point. They rave about being able to just plug in each night and have a "full tank" every morning and thus never having to go to a gas station. Nobody drives around just so they can plug in, that's ridiculous, the process of plugging in the car isn't exciting in itself, it's just awesome being able to plug in the car like we plug in our mobile phones each night vs the alternative of watching the gas gauge and driving to a filling station. You don't have to take my word for it though, I can put you in touch with several EV owners if you'd like to ask them what they like best, most of the guys I know are car enthusiasts and more than willing to chat about their vehicles.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 09, 2018, 12:36:53 am
      Until you get the bill. A few liters / gallon of gas costs you a few dollars / euros. Towing a car can get 10 times more expensive and take way more time. Although with some EVs you get a free tow service in case you run out of charge.


      Yes, I know how much a tow costs, I've had my car towed once when the fuel pump failed. That has happened once, which is one more time than I've run out of gas. How often do you run your car out of gas that the cost of an emergency refuel is something you take into consideration when you buy a car? Are you unable to keep an eye on the gauge? Can you not remember not to try driving 100 miles in a day on a car that has a range of 80 miles? Do you need to write yourself a note so that you don't forget and try driving 500 miles in a gas car that has a range of 400? I'm frankly a bit baffled that some people have difficulty recognizing the limits of whatever machine and operating within those limits. For the rest of us it's not a problem. None of the EV owners I've known have ever run out of juice, they start out every day with a full charge, their commute is well within the range of the car, why would they ever run out?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on December 09, 2018, 01:22:24 am

      Have ever taken apart an ICE motor? There are thousands of places the slightest casting or machining defect could damage an engine after it ran trouble free for 100 000km.


      Yes, there are less than 1000 parts.  I could take a few minutes and name them all even, they are not complicated.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: IanB on December 09, 2018, 01:59:47 am
      ...like we plug in our mobile phones each night...

      Not everyone. I, for one, don't plug my phone in each night. I tend to wait until it complains about low charge and then recharge it. Usually it is several days between charges, which is why I don't charge it every day.

      Mind you, I probably would plug in an EV every night, since the pain of running out of charge would be far worse than with a phone.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 09, 2018, 02:10:49 am
      None of the EV owners I've known have ever run out of juice, they start out every day with a full charge, their commute is well within the range of the car, why would they ever run out?
      You are (falsely) assuming that all people can actually plug an EV in at home for charging. So your whole argument goes straight out of the window. Also being able to plug in at home doesn't solve the long waiting time at a charge station when you want to make a long trip. You can't ignore the fact that there might not even be a (working) charging station where you are going but it is more likely you'll find a gas station. Most EV owners in this thread seem to shrink their world to places where there are chargers. What happened to cars bringing freedom to go wherever - whenever you want? When my wife and I go on a trip we fill the car up in the morning (takes 5 minutes and there is always a gas station along the road) and we drive all day without any care about range / running out of fuel.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 09, 2018, 05:06:50 am
      I doubt that EV owners rave about the plugging in process.  About not going to the gas station, sure.  About being full everyday, sure.  That plugging in is a minor inconvenience, sure.  But, saying WOW, maybe I'll go out and run around the block just so I can plug in again seems really unlikely to me. 


      You are missing the point. They rave about being able to just plug in each night and have a "full tank" every morning and thus never having to go to a gas station. Nobody drives around just so they can plug in, that's ridiculous, the process of plugging in the car isn't exciting in itself, it's just awesome being able to plug in the car like we plug in our mobile phones each night vs the alternative of watching the gas gauge and driving to a filling station. You don't have to take my word for it though, I can put you in touch with several EV owners if you'd like to ask them what they like best, most of the guys I know are car enthusiasts and more than willing to chat about their vehicles.

      It might help if you read what I said.  Three of the five sentences there were to emphasize what your point was.  But it wasn't what you said.  You said they rave about being able to plug in every night.  This is in a comment about separating fact from opinion.

      The plugging in every night is a minor inconvenience, both for EVs and for cell phones.  We put up with that minor inconvenience for the many benefits, and most of us believe that the inconvenience is heavily overwhelmed by the benefits.    The EV fan boys here won't admit that it is even a minor inconvenience.  The same ones magnify the horror of stopping at a gas station periodically.  It is a minor inconvenience that goes with ICE vehicles.  Different people might differ about the magnitude of that minor inconvenience on either side of the divide, but I am sure that it isn't a big deal for most people on either side of the debate.  I will also agree that there are edge cases on both sides which have real differences of opinion.  Someone who does almost all short trips in a bedroom community without a gas station might find the trip to the next community over for gas a big deal.  And some folks might live in areas where the owners and all the other patrons of the gas station are creepy low lives, making the minor inconvenience frightening.  But that is something like the edge cases of people who have very difficult access to a charging port.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 09, 2018, 05:11:16 am

      I pay about $20 a year extra on my auto insurance for free roadside assistance and towing. I've never needed to use it to be towed. I have used when I've run out of gas...


      I do also.  And have had to use it on a couple of occasions.  Where I discovered that the free roadside assistance and towing is actually free roadside assistance and three miles of free towing.  Murphy being ever present, three miles was not close to enough in either case.  You might want to check the fine print in your policy to see if you have a similar situation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 09, 2018, 07:34:52 am
      It might help if you read what I said.  Three of the five sentences there were to emphasize what your point was.  But it wasn't what you said.  You said they rave about being able to plug in every night.  This is in a comment about separating fact from opinion.



      But they do rave about being able to plug it in at night, because it's a convenient alternative to going to a gas station and stopping to fill up as they had to do previously. Do I really need to explicitly explain that it is not the actual act of plugging it in that they enjoy doing but the fact that they effortlessly have a fully fueled car each day? Can you not figure that out from what I said? Are you just trolling me or are you actually serious? Jeez some of you guys take pedantry to a whole new level.

      If I could easily convert my car so I could just plug it in after pulling into my garage and let it charge (or fill the gas tank) while I sleep I would jump on that in a heartbeat, it would be a fantastic convenience, I hate having to drive out of my way to go to a gas station when I'd rather just get home. That won't work for everybody, so what? Nobody here has ever claimed that it will. The people it won't work with should stick with ICE powered cars, liquid fuel is a superior option for people who can't plug in and charge at home, but why do people pretend there aren't tens of millions of people who can? I'm not sure what causes the "it won't work for me therefor it won't work for anyone" attitude, mental illness? It's quite frankly bizarre. I see EV's driving around every day, I know people who had had them for years now, several of my neighbors have them charging in their garages and driveways right now. To the point of this thread, they *already are* mainstream, hundreds of thousands of them are on the road, it's a bit silly to argue otherwise.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 09, 2018, 08:34:13 am
      But they do rave about being able to plug it in at night, because it's a convenient alternative to going to a gas station and stopping to fill up as they had to do previously. Do I really need to explicitly explain that it is not the actual act of plugging it in that they enjoy doing but the fact that they effortlessly have a fully fueled car each day?
      ..........If I could easily convert my car so I could just plug it in after pulling into my garage and let it charge (or fill the gas tank) while I sleep I would jump on that in a heartbeat, it would be a fantastic convenience, I hate having to drive out of my way to go to a gas station when I'd rather just get home
      Exactly. I did not buy an EV for that reason. In fact, It never occurred to me before owning one. But it turns out that is my favorite part of EV ownership. Someone dismissing that feature who does not drive an EV daily is talking out of their arse.

      Quote
      That won't work for everybody, so what? Nobody here has ever claimed that it will. The people it won't work with should stick with ICE powered cars, liquid fuel is a superior option for people who can't plug in and charge at home, but why do people pretend there aren't tens of millions of people who can? I'm not sure what causes the "it won't work for me therefor it won't work for anyone" attitude, mental illness? It's quite frankly bizarre.
      . Yep. Is it fear of change? Missing out? Tribalism?  It reminds me of the “DSOs are crap” crowd years ago.   Personally, I love ICEs . If only oil was a limitless, low pollution resourse.....

      Quote
      I see EV's driving around every day, I know people who had had them for years now, several of my neighbors have them charging in their garages and driveways right now. To the point of this thread, they *already are* mainstream, hundreds of thousands of them are on the road, it's a bit silly to argue otherwise.
      Yes they are. That question has been answered in the year since this thread began. Now there’s just a few vocal ICE only holdouts who want to make it about EVs not being a perfect drop in ICE replacement for everyone - with no disadvantages, ever.  The problem is, no one here has ever claimed that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 09, 2018, 08:43:19 am
      It might help if you read what I said.  Three of the five sentences there were to emphasize what your point was.  But it wasn't what you said.  You said they rave about being able to plug in every night.  This is in a comment about separating fact from opinion.
      But they do rave about being able to plug it in at night, because it's a convenient alternative to going to a gas station and stopping to fill up as they had to do previously. Do I really need to explicitly explain that it is not the actual act of plugging it in that they enjoy doing but the fact that they effortlessly have a fully fueled car each day?
      I'd say keeping a car plugged in always is a nuisance because it is something I'd typically forget. So I either find myself with an empty car or driving away with it still plugged in (been there, done that) OR if the car has a warning system I'd have to get out again and unplug it. With an ICE I fill it up once in a while and be done with it. The car is ready to go when I want to leave and I can dump it wherever there is a spot when I get back. The car is there for me and not vice versa. I'm not sure I always lock it but that is something it seems to do by itself after a while.

      I really don't see how plugging a car in wherever you park it is in any way better than filling it up every once in a while. That is changing one action for a lot of actions (=doing more and not less). That just can't be better by any definition. Perhaps plugging their cars in makes EV owners feel good for some reason but it doesn't make any sense from a practical & functional perspective.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Jester on December 09, 2018, 01:14:45 pm
      I just started reading this thread and I did not go back and read all 99 pages, so if someone already mentioned this so be it.

      Some of the new EV’s charge via what sounds like an induction pad that sits on the floor of your garage, so you don’t even need to plug it in, just park.

      Personally I love the sound and feel of a big solid roller cam V8 (I have one in my vintage Mustang), but the writing is clearly on the wall, these monsters are dinosaurs living on borrowed time. My next car will likely be a Tesla.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 09, 2018, 05:03:14 pm
      Maybe I have to make really simple.  Always leaving the house with a full tank is what people are raving about.  Not having to make an extra stop away from home is what the benefit is.  Having to plug it in at night isn't what makes it great, it is the small price you pay for those other desirable things. 

      This is the kind of crap that happens when people are so invested in winning that they are no longer really paying attention to the other half.  I'll own up to my half of this, I shouldn't be writing this post.  Do you see yours?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 09, 2018, 05:10:09 pm
      Also not factoring in sometimes people forget to plug-in thye chargeing cable when they get home.  Like leaving a kid in a car sometimes it happens.  Happened to me...  Forgetting to plug-in charging cable.  Happened to my neighbor.  She left her infant in the car and buybthe time she remembered the kid was dead.  It was only abou 75/24 degrees that day.

      Then in California there’s another issues with BEVs.  With the wild fires here in California people are  talking about not having a charged vehicle to escape a wild fire.  In the four devastating wild fires here people were woken-up in the middle of the night and told to evacuate immediately.  If the batteries aren’t charged or power was cut they might not have an escape vehicle.  Or leave them in the path of the on coming fire.

      People with ICE cars typically don’t drive home if the car is almost out of gas.

      And then what about people who face other natural disaster wher they need to be evacuated?  Hurricanes, toranados, flooding or days without power.

      I live in the wild fire zone and have a PHEV.  I feel I have the best of both world.  Not sure I wold feel the same if. I had a BEV.  When I was buying my PHEV There was a guy who drove into the dealership with a BEV begging to use there charger.  He din’t have enough charge left to get home.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 09, 2018, 05:50:42 pm
      Maybe I have to make really simple.  Always leaving the house with a full tank is what people are raving about.
      But why is that necessary at all...? IMHO lack of range! If you do the math it is likely that an EV owner spends more time plugging/unplugging and searching for a parking spot with a charger than it would take to fill up an ICE based car every once in a while. A typical ICE has enough fuel left to travel 80km in any condition when the 'now I need a drink' light goes on. In cold winter conditions the range of some EVs drops to less than 150km (unless the driver likes to freeze to death). Range anxiety still is a real thing. OTOH I'm not going to fill up my car to the brim if there is enough fuel in the tank to cover the distance. And if there isn't enough I'll just stop somewhere for a quick refill. The whole 'plugging in everywhere is better than filling up once in a while' idea is utterly moronic if you really think about it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 09, 2018, 06:54:01 pm
      Maybe I have to make really simple.  Always leaving the house with a full tank is what people are raving about.
      But why is that necessary at all...? IMHO lack of range! If you do the math it is likely that an EV owner spends more time plugging/unplugging and searching for a parking spot with a charger than it would take to fill up an ICE based car every once in a while. A typical ICE has enough fuel left to travel 80km in any condition when the 'now I need a drink' light goes on. In cold winter conditions the range of some EVs drops to less than 150km (unless the driver likes to freeze to death). Range anxiety still is a real thing. OTOH I'm not going to fill up my car to the brim if there is enough fuel in the tank to cover the distance. And if there isn't enough I'll just stop somewhere for a quick refill. The whole 'plugging in everywhere is better than filling up once in a while' idea is utterly moronic if you really think about it.

      As someone who owns a PHEV I have to search or both.  And with electricity cost to recharge either free or about one quarter of gas I always try to fill-up with the free electrons.

      I would not say I spend more time looking for a electron re-fueling station than I would for a petro re-fueling station.  In fact I would say I spend less far less time re-fueling with electrons as it is far more convenient and takes less of my time.  In fueling with petro I have to wait and waste my time as the car gets filled up.  With electron fuel I plug in and do what it is I have to do.  No need for me to watch the numbers increasing and that feeling of spending all of that money while waiting at the pump. 

      Just my data point.  I find electron re-fueling far easier and less time consuming than having to go to a gas station.  And there is one more Hugh plus in NOT having to buy gas....  My hands and car do not smell of gasoline after electron re-fueling.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 09, 2018, 06:59:35 pm
      For the smell they have free gloves over here. But let's run some numbers here. Say you have a 60km (back & forth) daily commute and you plug in at work as well. Say that plugging / unplugging takes 15 seconds each time so 60 seconds (=1 minute) a day. A reasonably ICE has a range ot about 700km. That means you can drive 11 days straight with one fuel stop. Over here (in Europe I mean) they have many gas station with pumps where you can pay directly so no need to wait before paying. Refuelling at such a gas station takes 5 minutes at most. So in those 11 days you'll spend 11 minutes on the EV versus 5 minutes with the ICE. If fueling time is so important then who is the crazy person here?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on December 09, 2018, 07:17:05 pm
      Maybe I have to make really simple.  Always leaving the house with a full tank is what people are raving about.
      But why is that necessary at all...? IMHO lack of range! If you do the math it is likely that an EV owner spends more time plugging/unplugging and searching for a parking spot with a charger than it would take to fill up an ICE based car every once in a while. A typical ICE has enough fuel left to travel 80km in any condition when the 'now I need a drink' light goes on. In cold winter conditions the range of some EVs drops to less than 150km (unless the driver likes to freeze to death). Range anxiety still is a real thing. OTOH I'm not going to fill up my car to the brim if there is enough fuel in the tank to cover the distance. And if there isn't enough I'll just stop somewhere for a quick refill. The whole 'plugging in everywhere is better than filling up once in a while' idea is utterly moronic if you really think about it.

      More talking out the arse by someone who doen't own an EV and has zero personal experience with them.

      Most BEVs now have range close or equal to ICE vehicles - so "filling up" daily is not necessary.  But why not fill up daily when it is cheap and painless?. Why do I plug my phone in every night even though in reality a charge can last several days? 

      I have a friend who recently bought a Tesla Model 3. She does not have a high level charger installed yet at home and originally thought she would use the free public charger a block from her office to fill up once a week.  But it turns out she says it's just easier to top off the batteries every night at home with the 120V charger that came with the car.  And over the recent Thanksgiving holiday, her and her family drove it 350 miles each way to visit family. No problem.

      Again - your constant nonsense is just like all the ranting a few years ago about all the short comings of DSOs by people who had never actually used one.  In the end it turns out there are only a few niche areas where analog scopes have an advantage over DSOs. 

      EVs are now mainstream. As time goes on the edge cases where an ICE vehicle is the better solution will become a smaller and small subset of all vehicle use.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 09, 2018, 07:37:16 pm
      Maybe I have to make really simple.  Always leaving the house with a full tank is what people are raving about.
      But why is that necessary at all...? IMHO lack of range! If you do the math it is likely that an EV owner spends more time plugging/unplugging and searching for a parking spot with a charger than it would take to fill up an ICE based car every once in a while. A typical ICE has enough fuel left to travel 80km in any condition when the 'now I need a drink' light goes on. In cold winter conditions the range of some EVs drops to less than 150km (unless the driver likes to freeze to death). Range anxiety still is a real thing. OTOH I'm not going to fill up my car to the brim if there is enough fuel in the tank to cover the distance. And if there isn't enough I'll just stop somewhere for a quick refill. The whole 'plugging in everywhere is better than filling up once in a while' idea is utterly moronic if you really think about it.
      Most BEVs now have range close or equal to ICE vehicles - so "filling up" daily is not necessary.
      Which BEVs are you talking about? AFAIK none of the commercially available -let alone affordable- EVs have >700km range. And things get much worse when taking battery wear and cold/hot wheather into account.

      And now suddenly daily charging isn't necessary? Make up your mind folks. One says EV owners want a topped-up car every day and the other says they don't? What is it???  :-//

      And EVs are mainstream? With (pure EV) sales figures of only a few percent?  :-DD
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 09, 2018, 09:47:32 pm
      For the smell they have free gloves over here. But let's run some numbers here. Say you have a 60km (back & forth) daily commute and you plug in at work as well. Say that plugging / unplugging takes 15 seconds each time so 60 seconds (=1 minute) a day. A reasonably ICE has a range ot about 700km. That means you can drive 11 days straight with one fuel stop. Over here (in Europe I mean) they have many gas station with pumps where you can pay directly so no need to wait before paying. Refuelling at such a gas station takes 5 minutes at most. So in those 11 days you'll spend 11 minutes on the EV versus 5 minutes with the ICE. If fueling time is so important then who is the crazy person here?

      Try fueling in the United States?  Gas prices in the same town on the same street can vary as much as $0.80 per gallon if you include membership gas stations such as Costco.  Right now, midday if one were to buy gasoline at Costco which has  18 pumps there is a 10 to 15 minute wait.  Then add to the the 10 to 20  minutes it takes to fuel the car and pay for the gas.

      Takes me less than 5 seconds to plug the charger into my car when I get home and another 5 seconds to unplug in the morning.  And since I have  PHEV I still have to go to a gas station once a month or so.  Going to the gas station is a real pain in the ass/waste of time.  I for one like the time saving comviemce of charging.

      Again I am just one data point.  But unlike many here who don’t have an EV and are speculating, I am providing empirical data.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on December 10, 2018, 01:43:35 am

      Again - your constant nonsense is just like all the ranting a few years ago about all the short comings of DSOs by people who had never actually used one.  In the end it turns out there are only a few niche areas where analog scopes have an advantage over DSOs. 
      Many of us, in the early days, approached DSOs with great enthusiasm, only to be disappointed by their lack of utility in many (then) mainstream activities.

      They just couldn't do the job!
      This wasn't anything to do with the fact they were DSOs, it was things like tiny memory, necessitating reduction of the sample rate to very low values if long time/div settings were used.

      To many mainstream folk, looking at signals with high frequency components, whilst using time/div settings round 5ms/div were everyday activities.
      The classic case, is, of course, analog video----- early DSOs were battling to display video signals at line rate accurately, let alone field rate.

      Before you say "Pshaw! niche area", remember, the Television industry, & it's associated transmission links were among the largest customers of Tektronix & HP for decades.

      What was particularly aggravating was the, even then, dismissal of our objections as us being "technological Dinosaurs ", "Luddites", etc.
      It wasn't even a generational thing, the same problems were recognised by Techs & EEs from their 20's to their '50s.

      To those who never had to use Oscilloscopes in the way we, & millions of others did, our objections were dismissed as "nit picking".

      Today's DSOs have become a mature technology, & can now do those tests, ironically, when they have become "niche" areas.
      Their UIs have also become more "analog like" as they matured.
      Quote

      EVs are now mainstream. As time goes on the edge cases where an ICE vehicle is the better solution will become a smaller and small subset of all vehicle use.

      But that hasn't happened yet, as with DSOs, pushing the early models as the  total answer just raises the cases (& there are many), where they are not yet appropriate.
      If I was gifted an EV, I would happily work around any limitations, but if I had to buy one, I would look long & hard at those "edge cases".

      Most of us are too poor to have a spare ICE vehicle sitting around doing nothing in case of long trips, so we have to "make do" with one "general purpose" car.
      Jumping into my old Toyota Camry & doing a 1500km trip is something that doesn't need a lot of preparation, costs a lot less than hiring a car for the same trip, catching a long distance bus, or flying.

      In the real world, (which in my case is Australia), I would have a lot more chance of picking up a tankful of fuel at a "Roadhouse" on the side of the road, a couple of hundred km from anywhere else, than recharging an EV.
      OK, I don't take as many road trips as I used to, so an EV would be OK for round the City.

      When I was still working, I took the train, then the bus, to work, so being even more environmentally friendly than if I drove an EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 10, 2018, 02:38:26 am
      Maybe I have to make really simple.  Always leaving the house with a full tank is what people are raving about.  Not having to make an extra stop away from home is what the benefit is.  Having to plug it in at night isn't what makes it great, it is the small price you pay for those other desirable things. 

      This is the kind of crap that happens when people are so invested in winning that they are no longer really paying attention to the other half.  I'll own up to my half of this, I shouldn't be writing this post.  Do you see yours?

      Yes exactly, and could you not extrapolate that from what I said? Is English not your native language? A few weeks after my friend Mike got his EV he quite literally said to me how great it was that he could just plug in the car in his driveway and it was fully charged in the morning. To me it was obvious that it was the fully charged in the morning thing that was great, the plugging in was the part that enabled this. I didn't stand there debating this with him and make him lay it out for me as I'm having to do here because I'm not ridiculously pedantic and I found the message was obvious.

      At any rate he's been driving the thing daily for about 2 years now. This past summer I installed a pair of 30A 240V circuits in his garage because after a few months of having his, his wife decided she wants her own EV because she hates to deal with getting gas. The ability to just plug in like a phone instead of having to drive to a gas station, wait in line and deal with stinky liquid is literally the reason she decided to trade in her VW sedan and replace it with an EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on December 10, 2018, 08:23:10 pm
      Most BEVs now have range close or equal to ICE vehicles - so "filling up" daily is not necessary.  But why not fill up daily when it is cheap and painless?. Why do I plug my phone in every night even though in reality a charge can last several days? 
      My 2009 Honda Civic hybrid has a 500 mile range, even with its small gas tank.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 10, 2018, 08:34:42 pm
      Most BEVs now have range close or equal to ICE vehicles - so "filling up" daily is not necessary.  But why not fill up daily when it is cheap and painless?. Why do I plug my phone in every night even though in reality a charge can last several days? 
      My 2009 Honda Civic hybrid has a 500 mile range, even with its small gas tank.

      Jon

      How is it you get so much more than the other hybrid cars? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 10, 2018, 08:51:40 pm
      I think my partner's Prius will go at least 400 miles, 500 may be possible. To be honest I've never tried to see how far it will go, we typically top up the tank when it is convenient to do so rather than waiting until it's almost dry and needing to fill up. This habit may be why in nearly 25 years of driving I've never run a car out of gas.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on December 11, 2018, 07:54:34 pm
      My 2009 Honda Civic hybrid has a 500 mile range, even with its small gas tank.
      How is it you get so much more than the other hybrid cars?
      Well, at least when I bought it, it was the MOST efficient hybrid available.  I have always been an efficient driver, and got significantly more mileage than other people.
      Just drive at a constant speed, anticipate traffic lights, things like that.  When my Civic hybrid was relatively new, it was pretty easy to get about 56 MPG in mixed driving when it wasn't too hot or cold.  With a 10 Gallon tank, that makes it pretty easy to get 500 miles on a tank.  When the hybrid battery deteriorates, or it is very hot or cold, then mileage drops to about 46 MPG or so, and you can't quite make 500 miles.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on December 11, 2018, 11:58:49 pm
      I'm surprised no one yet has rigged up a raspberry Pi with openCV and some servos to see your EV pull in the garage and plug it in automatically.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 12, 2018, 12:36:18 am
      I'm sure somebody has, but to most of us that sounds like more trouble than it's worth. Plugging in the car when you get home is a lot like pulling out your key and unlocking the front door or walking over to the mailbox and grabbing the mail. It's just one of those things you quickly get in the habit of doing and don't really think about because it takes an insignificant amount of effort. Would it be nice to have a pneumatic tube between my mailbox and my kitchen table? Sure, but is it worth the effort of putting one in? No way.

      I do like that I can walk over to my mailbox and grab the mail though instead of taking a trip to the post office. I guess I better explain that not having to drive to the post office is the part I like, before someone says it sounds like I have so much fun grabbing the mail that I'd just keep walking to the mailbox over and over to get my day's worth of pleasure.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 12, 2018, 11:04:50 am
      It’s been proposed but no need for a Pi and circuitry it’t Tesla’s wireless charging.  Same technology that sort of works for your phone and cordless tooth brush, has been proposed for cars.

      But why?  Takes more time to find the key for my house in my pocket and unlock my front door than it takes to plug-in the cable to charge my car.   And it sure beats haveing to find a gas station an waste tine wining for the car to be filled with gas.  I will say that is a huge plus with an EV,

      I'm surprised no one yet has rigged up a raspberry Pi with openCV and some servos to see your EV pull in the garage and plug it in automatically.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on December 12, 2018, 01:44:16 pm
      It’s been proposed but no need for a Pi and circuitry it’t Tesla’s wireless charging.  Same technology that sort of works for your phone and cordless tooth brush, has been proposed for cars.

      But why?  Takes more time to find the key for my house in my pocket and unlock my front door than it takes to plug-in the cable to charge my car.   And it sure beats haveing to find a gas station an waste tine wining for the car to be filled with gas.  I will say that is a huge plus with an EV,


      Because people forget or have their hands full of groceries or use that as an excuse as to why EV's won't work.

      And, BTW I don't brush my cordless tooth, I use a cordless toothbrush, spaces matter in compound words :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on December 12, 2018, 02:45:10 pm
      It’s been proposed but no need for a Pi and circuitry it’t Tesla’s wireless charging.  Same technology that sort of works for your phone and cordless tooth brush, has been proposed for cars.

      But why?  Takes more time to find the key for my house in my pocket and unlock my front door than it takes to plug-in the cable to charge my car.   And it sure beats haveing to find a gas station an waste tine wining for the car to be filled with gas.  I will say that is a huge plus with an EV,


      Because people forget or have their hands full of groceries or use that as an excuse as to why EV's won't work.

      And, BTW I don't brush my cordless tooth, I use a cordless toothbrush, spaces matter in compound words :)

      Safari doesn't know from compound words. ;D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 12, 2018, 04:18:45 pm
      It’s been proposed but no need for a Pi and circuitry it’t Tesla’s wireless charging.  Same technology that sort of works for your phone and cordless tooth brush, has been proposed for cars.

      But why?  Takes more time to find the key for my house in my pocket and unlock my front door than it takes to plug-in the cable to charge my car.   And it sure beats haveing to find a gas station an waste tine wining for the car to be filled with gas.  I will say that is a huge plus with an EV,


      Because people forget or have their hands full of groceries or use that as an excuse as to why EV's won't work.

      And, BTW I don't brush my cordless tooth, I use a cordless toothbrush, spaces matter in compound words :)

      Safari doesn't know from compound words. ;D

      Exactly   I’vre Also found Safari autocorrects prosecution to prostitution somtoimes.  But then again maybe the folks at Apple think the two words have the same meaning.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on December 13, 2018, 08:44:47 am
      It’s been proposed but no need for a Pi and circuitry it’t Tesla’s wireless charging.  Same technology that sort of works for your phone and cordless tooth brush, has been proposed for cars.

      But why?  Takes more time to find the key for my house in my pocket and unlock my front door than it takes to plug-in the cable to charge my car.   And it sure beats haveing to find a gas station an waste tine wining for the car to be filled with gas.  I will say that is a huge plus with an EV,


      Because people forget or have their hands full of groceries or use that as an excuse as to why EV's won't work.

      And, BTW I don't brush my cordless tooth, I use a cordless toothbrush, spaces matter in compound words :)

      Safari doesn't know from compound words. ;D

      Exactly   I’vre Also found Safari autocorrects prosecution to prostitution somtoimes.  But then again maybe the folks at Apple think the two words have the same meaning.

      I'm getting a bit sick of the iPad, with all of that nonsense, & the fact that it's so easy to lose a whole posting by the unwary brush of a "pinkie" finger.
      I think I will have to fix one of the dead Windows laptops, or do everything on the desktop.

      Of course, if the laptops weren't so bloody fragile, I wouldn't have started using iPad.
      One thing in its favour,though----- it is quite a bit more solid than the two crappy laptops.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 13, 2018, 04:44:16 pm
      I haven't really found laptops to be all that fragile. I've never actually had one break, I've only replaced them because of technological obsolescence. My partner is still using the Lenovo I bought in 2011.

      I have an old iPad somebody gave me and the only thing I've ever really found it useful for is viewing PDF manuals. Typing on a touchscreen is hopeless.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 13, 2018, 05:33:50 pm
      I haven't really found laptops to be all that fragile. I've never actually had one break, I've only replaced them because of technological obsolescence. My partner is still using the Lenovo I bought in 2011.

      I have an old iPad somebody gave me and the only thing I've ever really found it useful for is viewing PDF manuals. Typing on a touchscreen is hopeless.

      iPad is only usefull if you buy a "real" keyboard.  I have two iPads and the screens are both cracked.  My laptop on the otherhand is just fine. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 13, 2018, 06:33:02 pm
      The walled garden software ecosystem is another insurmountable obstacle to me. I tolerate it on my phone because I use very few apps on my phone. It's useless for anything I want to do any real work on though. The internet is unusable without an adblocker so the older iPads that lack that are useless for browsing too.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on December 13, 2018, 11:51:43 pm
      I think my partner's Prius will go at least 400 miles, 500 may be possible. To be honest I've never tried to see how far it will go, we typically top up the tank when it is convenient to do so rather than waiting until it's almost dry and needing to fill up. This habit may be why in nearly 25 years of driving I've never run a car out of gas.
      Some years ago, the hypermiling nut-jobs were going for a 1000 mile tank on a Prius.  I remember they got REAL close, at least 970 miles.  There's a guy who
      flew in for a competition and did 180 MPG in somebody else's random Prius.  From what people described, doing this day in and day out would be likely to get you arrested (or killed).

      A while ago, somebody was selling their original Honda Insight hybrid, and they showed the dashboard display, where they'd gotten a lifetime of 87 MPG over something like 85 -95K miles running total.  I was REALLY impressed.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 14, 2018, 03:28:24 am
      I think my partner's Prius will go at least 400 miles, 500 may be possible. To be honest I've never tried to see how far it will go, we typically top up the tank when it is convenient to do so rather than waiting until it's almost dry and needing to fill up. This habit may be why in nearly 25 years of driving I've never run a car out of gas.
      Some years ago, the hypermiling nut-jobs were going for a 1000 mile tank on a Prius.  I remember they got REAL close, at least 970 miles.  There's a guy who
      flew in for a competition and did 180 MPG in somebody else's random Prius.  From what people described, doing this day in and day out would be likely to get you arrested (or killed).

      A while ago, somebody was selling their original Honda Insight hybrid, and they showed the dashboard display, where they'd gotten a lifetime of 87 MPG over something like 85 -95K miles running total.  I was REALLY impressed.

      Jon

      You are looking at just a couple of data points.  There are web sites where people compete to get the most MPGs they can.  In my ICE I can get well over 100 MPG when the force is with me.  Gravity threat is.  And just because someone flew around the world in a ballon and in a solar powered airplane doen’t mean it’s for everyone.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 14, 2018, 06:20:31 am
      You are looking at just a couple of data points.  There are web sites where people compete to get the most MPGs they can.  In my ICE I can get well over 100 MPG when the force is with me.  Gravity threat is.  And just because someone flew around the world in a ballon and in a solar powered airplane doen’t mean it’s for everyone.

      What are you driving that you're getting 100MPG? I think I got 56 once in the Prius driving very carefully, but not so crazy as to hold up traffic.

      In my own car I'm doing well to get 25MPG but I don't care, I love the car and I don't drive that much anyway. I work from home 3 days a week and when I do commute to the office I take the bus.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on December 14, 2018, 09:46:49 pm
      You are looking at just a couple of data points.  There are web sites where people compete to get the most MPGs they can.  In my ICE I can get well over 100 MPG when the force is with me.  Gravity threat is.  And just because someone flew around the world in a ballon and in a solar powered airplane doen’t mean it’s for everyone.

      What are you driving that you're getting 100MPG? I think I got 56 once in the Prius driving very carefully, but not so crazy as to hold up traffic.

      In my own car I'm doing well to get 25MPG but I don't care, I love the car and I don't drive that much anyway. I work from home 3 days a week and when I do commute to the office I take the bus.
      Well, if you drive up Pike's Peak and then reset your mileage meter, you can get infinity MPG pretty easily on the way down.  Your average up AND down won't be that good!

      One of my kids drove from St. Louis to Bloomingtom IN for a basketball conference and did 57 MPG for the whole trip.  He was not an expert hypermiler, either, just a conservative driver.  That run is pretty much dead flat once you get out of the Mississippi valley, which really helps.  We had 4 people in the car plus luggage for an overnight stay.

      The hypermiling competition I mentioned before was a 20 mile pre-arranged course.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 15, 2018, 12:50:26 am
      That could be what's going on, I forget sometimes how flat some regions are. There are hills everywhere here, some big ones, others gentle enough that it looks flat, but you're still gaining and losing significant elevation over several dozen miles of highway. IIRC the (first gen) Prius does best going about 45mph on flat ground.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 15, 2018, 07:51:15 am
      If we all drove EV’s tomorrow, can the grid provide?  Here’s the answer we all want to know.

      https://youtu.be/w_OYbZzWk5E
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 15, 2018, 01:48:03 pm
      VW’s is going to clobber Tesla.  Might you soon be able to buy a VW made in Tesla’s Gigafactory?  Are EVs really better than ICE?  Why yes, but no.

      https://youtu.be/STWlx_k-YvQ
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 15, 2018, 06:16:54 pm
      If we all drove EV’s tomorrow, can the grid provide?  Here’s the answer we all want to know.


      Why do we all want to know that? We're not all going to be driving EV's tomorrow, or next year, or 20 years from now. This is not an all or nothing thing, not everybody will be well served by EVs so they will exist in conjunction with vehicles powered by other fuel sources. Silly people seem to think it has to be 100% one thing or another. If 100% of cars were electric we'd be in the same mess as having 100% of cars ICE powered, all our eggs in one basket, too much dependance a single limited resource.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 15, 2018, 06:30:59 pm
      If we all drove EV’s tomorrow, can the grid provide?  Here’s the answer we all want to know.


      Why do we all want to know that? We're not all going to be driving EV's tomorrow, or next year, or 20 years from now. This is not an all or nothing thing, not everybody will be well served by EVs so they will exist in conjunction with vehicles powered by other fuel sources. Silly people seem to think it has to be 100% one thing or another. If 100% of cars were electric we'd be in the same mess as having 100% of cars ICE powered, all our eggs in one basket, too much dependance a single limited resource.

      It's a claim anti-EV conspiracist and the oil companies are using.  The tobacco companies used the same tactic when the evidence was overwhelming linking cigarette smoking to lung cancer.  The tobacco companies hired a PR firm to cause confusion with the public with the motto everyday we cause doubt and controversy with the public is another day of profits.

      Just as petrol and Hydrogen fueling stations did not appear overnight it's going to take a bit of time for EV chanrging stations and the grid to catch-up.  And with VW's announcement about investing billions in EV it might take much less that 20 years.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 15, 2018, 06:59:40 pm
      If we all drove EV’s tomorrow, can the grid provide?  Here’s the answer we all want to know.
      Why do we all want to know that? We're not all going to be driving EV's tomorrow, or next year, or 20 years from now. This is not an all or nothing thing, not everybody will be well served by EVs so they will exist in conjunction with vehicles powered by other fuel sources.
      Either way the grid updates will be needed and paid for by someone if there are more EVs than the grid can handle. That moment will occur long before EV penetration is 100%.
      Basically the whole 'at home charging' idea is flawed from the start. The grid hasn't been designed to deal with that many large loads.

      Recently Porsche & BMW have demonstrated a 450kW fast charger station which is a much better solution IMHO. The more people you can share a piece of infrastructure with, the cheaper it gets. https://newatlas.com/porsche-450-kw-fastcharge-prototype/57659/ (https://newatlas.com/porsche-450-kw-fastcharge-prototype/57659/) The charge time is still too long though. Putting 400km of range in a typical EV (250Wh/km) still takes 15 minutes. Things will get interesting when chargers get a power output of around 1.5MW . In that case battery capacity will be much less of an issue.


      Quote
      Silly people seem to think it has to be 100% one thing or another. If 100% of cars were electric we'd be in the same mess as having 100% of cars ICE powered, all our eggs in one basket, too much dependance a single limited resource.
      Well that is what the governments in Europe try to sell to the public. We should all drive EVs! That would magically make the whole CO2 problem go away. I wonder how because over here cars account for 12% of the CO2 emissions.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 15, 2018, 08:22:22 pm
      Well, hybrids can be a first step, because the main issue with EVs is the range, but it's NOT an issue most of the time, when the car is used inside the city. I wonder if manufacturers will start to use supercaps to enhance the regenerative braking, as they seem to have excellent characteristicts for that kind of use. Probably too expensive right now, however.
      A pluggable hybrid with enough range to cover normal city use would be driving 100% electric most of the time, and if you need to travel longer distances, it has an ICE for that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 15, 2018, 08:26:15 pm
      But don't expect to be allowed to charge a hybrid anywhere else than at home in the near future: https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/105449/ban-plug-in-hybrids-from-ev-charging-bays-say-experts (https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/105449/ban-plug-in-hybrids-from-ev-charging-bays-say-experts)
      In the Netherlands PHEVs sales are dead anyway. Nobody buys them. In the end a hybrid is the worst of both worlds due to the extra weight and extra complexity.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 15, 2018, 08:33:18 pm
      If we all drove EV’s tomorrow, can the grid provide?  Here’s the answer we all want to know.
      Why do we all want to know that? We're not all going to be driving EV's tomorrow, or next year, or 20 years from now. This is not an all or nothing thing, not everybody will be well served by EVs so they will exist in conjunction with vehicles powered by other fuel sources.
      Either way the grid updates will be needed and paid for by someone if there are more EVs than the grid can handle. That moment will occur long before EV penetration is 100%.
      Basically the whole 'at home charging' idea is flawed from the start. The grid hasn't been designed to deal with that many large loads.

      Recently Porsche & BMW have demonstrated a 450kW fast charger station which is a much better solution IMHO. The more people you can share a piece of infrastructure with, the cheaper it gets. https://newatlas.com/porsche-450-kw-fastcharge-prototype/57659/ (https://newatlas.com/porsche-450-kw-fastcharge-prototype/57659/) The charge time is still too long though. Putting 400km of range in a typical EV (250Wh/km) still takes 15 minutes. Things will get interesting when chargers get a power output of around 1.5MW . In that case battery capacity will be much less of an issue.


      Quote
      Silly people seem to think it has to be 100% one thing or another. If 100% of cars were electric we'd be in the same mess as having 100% of cars ICE powered, all our eggs in one basket, too much dependance a single limited resource.
      Well that is what the governments in Europe try to sell to the public. We should all drive EVs! That would magically make the whole CO2 problem go away. I wonder how because over here cars account for 12% of the CO2 emissions.


      Seems like if Europeans, especially the Germans, would drink less beer, and eat less bread it would greatly cut down on CO2 levels.  I suspect just having Germans stop drinking beer would reduce CO2 levels more so then having everyone drive EVs.  I think I need funding for a research project.  I'd like to know how much CO2 is released in Munich durning Octoberfest.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 15, 2018, 08:51:59 pm
       :palm: There is no need for that. If you use Google you'll find that information which shows industry is the largest contributor to CO2 emissions by far. But since industry is driving the economy of many countries not much is going to happen to that sector.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 15, 2018, 09:53:21 pm
      But don't expect to be allowed to charge a hybrid anywhere else than at home in the near future: https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/105449/ban-plug-in-hybrids-from-ev-charging-bays-say-experts (https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-news/105449/ban-plug-in-hybrids-from-ev-charging-bays-say-experts)
      Well, that seems reasonable. Easy to implement, also: just refuse to charge at slower rates. What's the point of a fast charge station, if you are charging slowly?

      In the Netherlands PHEVs sales are dead anyway. Nobody buys them. In the end a hybrid is the worst of both worlds due to the extra weight and extra complexity.
      In some aspects, yes, but you could still get to drive in 0 emissions mode in the city and have a long range on the same car, and neither an ICE vehicle nor a pure EV will allow that right now. But of course, they're more expensive, so that doesn't help. At some point the government must be involved, with tax reductions, or some incentives like that, as it's clearly desirable to have 0 emission vehicles on the cities.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 15, 2018, 10:05:10 pm
      In the Netherlands PHEVs sales are dead anyway. Nobody buys them. In the end a hybrid is the worst of both worlds due to the extra weight and extra complexity.
      In some aspects, yes, but you could still get to drive in 0 emissions mode in the city and have a long range on the same car, and neither an ICE vehicle nor a pure EV will allow that right now. But of course, they're more expensive, so that doesn't help. At some point the government must be involved, with tax reductions, or some incentives like that, as it's clearly desirable to have 0 emission vehicles on the cities.
      But the problem with that is that you can't make new technology cheaper for the masses. Incentives can only help to bring technology to pre-mass production. Otherwise the people with less money are paying taxes to allow the happy few to buy more expensive products. If EVs need to catch on then they need to be intrinsically cheaper to buy, own & run compared to ICE vehicles. Increasing taxes on fuel or ICE cars isn't the solution to make that happen because increasing those taxes will just increase inflation and have no effect (*). The Dutch government has been trying increasing taxes for several decades and it doesn't work to get people out of their cars. That is only logical because for many a car is the best (fastest) form of transportation despite traffic jams. Oddly enough public transport often doesn't get to places where many people work.

      * Or mass riots may happen as you can see in France currently.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 15, 2018, 10:14:21 pm
      A PHEV is just another option, with advantages and disadvantages. It will fill the needs of some very well, for others the disadvantages outweigh the advantages. If you have space for only one car, do mostly short trips but need to go further more often than is practical to rent a car, it could be the way to go.

      Personally if I were going to buy a new car I'd just get a pure EV since we already have multiple cars but that also has advantages and disadvantages. Once again it seems some people are incapable of comprehending a reality where their own needs and situation differ from those of someone else.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 16, 2018, 02:53:33 am
      This is crazy.  For around $10,000 and an hour or two any car can be converted to EV.  Or a two wheel drive EV can be made 4WD EV with 1n extra 200 HP.  Very clever design.

      https://youtu.be/iQ4lTPVR3qc
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on December 17, 2018, 02:29:40 pm
      Way back in the 80's when i was a kid and JC Whitney still send out a big thick catalog I would page through them dreaming of buying a fiberglass jeep body and then make an aluminum frame and 4 motors for the wheels to make a nice 4x4 EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 17, 2018, 03:09:26 pm
      Putting motors in the wheels is a really bad idea. The wheels and the parts attached to them should be as light as possible for optimal performance of the suspension system.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 17, 2018, 04:02:40 pm
      Putting motors in the wheels is a really bad idea. The wheels and the parts attached to them should be as light as possible for optimal performance of the suspension system.

      Did you watch the video?  Far less weight than the original wheels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on December 17, 2018, 05:37:53 pm

      Seems like if Europeans, especially the Germans, would drink less beer, and eat less bread it would greatly cut down on CO2 levels.  I suspect just having Germans stop drinking beer would reduce CO2 levels more so then having everyone drive EVs.  I think I need funding for a research project.  I'd like to know how much CO2 is released in Munich durning Octoberfest.

      It's been proven that the bulk of the greengas comes from cows. They fart and burp too much methane.
      Solution : eat more cows !
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 17, 2018, 06:00:30 pm

      Seems like if Europeans, especially the Germans, would drink less beer, and eat less bread it would greatly cut down on CO2 levels.  I suspect just having Germans stop drinking beer would reduce CO2 levels more so then having everyone drive EVs.  I think I need funding for a research project.  I'd like to know how much CO2 is released in Munich durning Octoberfest.

      It's been proven that the bulk of the greengas comes from cows. They fart and burp too much methane.
      Solution : eat more cows !

      Cows are a made made animal/machine.  Grass goes in, gas comes out with mike, meat and profits as a byproduct.  Is there a part of a cow that’s not eatten or used?  Don’t think so.  A cow 100% recyclable.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 17, 2018, 06:26:31 pm
      EV car conversions appear to be a booming business here in California.  I was a bit surprised to see there are two companies just in Southern California doing conversions.  And one company is saying they have a 3 years waiting list.

      Any companies in Europe, Australia or somewhere else doing the same?  Have to admit it’s “sounds” good especially if you like older carss.

      And unlike Tesla’s 1931 Pierce Arrow which he claimed ran on energy from the universe.  One of these EV conversations companies is demonstrating it is possible to power cars from Energy from the universe.

      Seems to me the car industry has been dead for decades.  EV’s are generating a lot of excitement.  In racing, and EV car conversions.  Wonder how EVs are changing NASCAR.  Elon and EVs are causing disruption.  Here in the US one can buy a Korean made EV around $25,000.  After cash rebates and tax credits in California purchase price less than $15,000.  And if one saves say $1,000 a year in petro cost of the new car is $5,000.  And I’m not including inflation or cost for oil changes and other maitance. 

      I have to ask would you not buy one?  Lease or finance the thing and you pay what something like $125 per moth for a new car?  With technology in EV cars changing faster than cell phones or computers who would want to keep a car longer than the life of EV batteries.

      Just as cell phones were a slow adpotioon, so are EVs.  But there’s no doubt people are interesting and consumers are buying them at an accelerated growth rate.  Just have to see how steep that cure is over the next 5 years as more EVs come to market.     

      https://youtu.be/q4CPBHj0UQk

      https://youtu.be/-WvBT9wfx_M





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on December 17, 2018, 08:42:46 pm
      A couple of years back, a guy in Oz modified an old 1950s Renault 750 into an EV.
      He did a really neat job, too.

      There was a write up in the local magazine "Restored Cars".
      Unfortunately, RC don't seem to have an Internet presence to link to.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 17, 2018, 09:15:22 pm
      In the 1980s there was guy in my neighborhood who converted a station wagon into an EV.  I remember under the hood where the should have been were lead acid batteries.  About all I remember.  I'm sure he's past and the car has been crushed.  I wonder what he would have used for a motor back then.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on December 17, 2018, 11:22:29 pm

      Seems like if Europeans, especially the Germans, would drink less beer, and eat less bread it would greatly cut down on CO2 levels.  I suspect just having Germans stop drinking beer would reduce CO2 levels more so then having everyone drive EVs.  I think I need funding for a research project.  I'd like to know how much CO2 is released in Munich durning Octoberfest.

      It's been proven that the bulk of the greengas comes from cows. They fart and burp too much methane.
      Solution : eat more cows !
      We need electric cows.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 18, 2018, 12:33:28 am
      In the 1980s there was guy in my neighborhood who converted a station wagon into an EV.  I remember under the hood where the should have been were lead acid batteries.  About all I remember.  I'm sure he's past and the car has been crushed.  I wonder what he would have used for a motor back then.

      They typically used forklift motors and purpose built derivatives. These are large frame brushed dc motors with wound stators. Usually they could be switched between series and shunt winding.

      About 10 years ago I saw an electric converted Miata that used lead acid and a forklift motor. The range was only a bit over 20 miles but it occurred to me that it would be adequate for my daily commute even if I couldn't charge at the office. Like bicycle or mass transit committing it simply requires a change in habit and mindset, and like those other popular options, it won't work for everybody.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 18, 2018, 01:46:58 am
      Turn by turn voice navigation from the 1970s....  Brillaint|!

      https://youtu.be/KliWHCzE16c
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 18, 2018, 04:27:55 am
      In this form we talk about ICE vs. EV yet no mention of steam.  So when do you think steam cars were no longer being sold?  Less than 100 year ago one had a choice between a Ford (CE, Baker EV and a Doberman steam powered car.

      https://youtu.be/rUg_ukBwsyo
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Red Squirrel on December 18, 2018, 06:41:09 am
      I think there is a market for retrofit kits to turn an ICE into an EV.  I think this would be a great stepping stone for someone that wants to try EV but does not want to buy a new car.  There could be different ways of doing retro fit.  Either hub motors or simply switching out the whole drive train.

      I wish I had a big heated garage so I can play with stuff like this myself.  I know nothing about working on cars but it would be a fun hobby to learn if I had a good work area for it.  Next property I buy I want to make sure there's room for a big ass garage, and that it's in an unorganized township. (don't need permits and other BS like that)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 18, 2018, 07:10:14 am
      Retrofit is not the way to try out an EV, there's no way you could retrofit a car for any less than you can buy a ready to roll used EV for and retrofitting a car is a BIG job. It's not like you could do that with your daily driver, even for an experienced engineer or mechanic it would probably take several months and a lot of work to do the conversion during which time the car would be off the road. I've done several engine and transmission swaps and other major repairs and it always takes longer than it seems like it will and there's almost always some part you find you have to order after you've got it apart. It made sense to retrofit when you had the means and couldn't just buy a factory EV, or if you like car projects and want something unique but it's not gonna be a poor man's EV.

      My dad and another friend of mine both bought Nissan Leafs that had come off lease, both were less than $10k and were practically like new. I bet a kit to do a decent conversion would cost at least that much, and you'd end up with something that doesn't work as well.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 18, 2018, 10:44:27 am
      Retrofit is not the way to try out an EV, there's no way you could retrofit a car for any less than you can buy a ready to roll used EV for and retrofitting a car is a BIG job. It's not like you could do that with your daily driver, even for an experienced engineer or mechanic it would probably take several months and a lot of work to do the conversion during which time the car would be off the road. I've done several engine and transmission swaps and other major repairs and it always takes longer than it seems like it will and there's almost always some part you find you have to order after you've got it apart. It made sense to retrofit when you had the means and couldn't just buy a factory EV, or if you like car projects and want something unique but it's not gonna be a poor man's EV.

      My dad and another friend of mine both bought Nissan Leafs that had come off lease, both were less than $10k and were practically like new. I bet a kit to do a decent conversion would cost at least that much, and you'd end up with something that doesn't work as well.

      Did you watch any of the video on conversion?  For the wheel EV conversions they are saying it can be done in an afternoon.  And for endive replacement for 100% EV cost is under $10,000 and you wind up with the car you want instead of something like a Leaf.  Look at the cars they have converted.  Original VW Bugs, VW Things, Porche, Camero, Karmin Ghea, as well as old classic American cars from the 1950s. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 18, 2018, 11:15:08 am
      Retrofit is not the way to try out an EV, there's no way you could retrofit a car for any less than you can buy a ready to roll used EV for and retrofitting a car is a BIG job. It's not like you could do that with your daily driver, even for an experienced engineer or mechanic it would probably take several months and a lot of work to do the conversion during which time the car would be off the road. I've done several engine and transmission swaps and other major repairs and it always takes longer than it seems like it will and there's almost always some part you find you have to order after you've got it apart. It made sense to retrofit when you had the means and couldn't just buy a factory EV, or if you like car projects and want something unique but it's not gonna be a poor man's EV.

      My dad and another friend of mine both bought Nissan Leafs that had come off lease, both were less than $10k and were practically like new. I bet a kit to do a decent conversion would cost at least that much, and you'd end up with something that doesn't work as well.
      Did you watch any of the video on conversion?  For the wheel EV conversions they are saying it can be done in an afternoon.  And for endive replacement for 100% EV cost is under $10,000 and you wind up with the car you want instead of something like a Leaf.  Look at the cars they have converted.  Original VW Bugs, VW Things, Porche, Camero, Karmin Ghea, as well as old classic American cars from the 1950s.
      Range? Charge time? Who is doing the maintenance? Safety? Judging from TV shows on car modification, in the US safety seems to be one of the last concerns... Nice toy projects but not suitable as a real car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 18, 2018, 01:09:51 pm
      Retrofit is not the way to try out an EV, there's no way you could retrofit a car for any less than you can buy a ready to roll used EV for and retrofitting a car is a BIG job. It's not like you could do that with your daily driver, even for an experienced engineer or mechanic it would probably take several months and a lot of work to do the conversion during which time the car would be off the road. I've done several engine and transmission swaps and other major repairs and it always takes longer than it seems like it will and there's almost always some part you find you have to order after you've got it apart. It made sense to retrofit when you had the means and couldn't just buy a factory EV, or if you like car projects and want something unique but it's not gonna be a poor man's EV.

      My dad and another friend of mine both bought Nissan Leafs that had come off lease, both were less than $10k and were practically like new. I bet a kit to do a decent conversion would cost at least that much, and you'd end up with something that doesn't work as well.
      Did you watch any of the video on conversion?  For the wheel EV conversions they are saying it can be done in an afternoon.  And for endive replacement for 100% EV cost is under $10,000 and you wind up with the car you want instead of something like a Leaf.  Look at the cars they have converted.  Original VW Bugs, VW Things, Porche, Camero, Karmin Ghea, as well as old classic American cars from the 1950s.
      Range? Charge time? Who is doing the maintenance? Safety? Judging from TV shows on car modification, in the US safety seems to be one of the last concerns... Nice toy projects but not suitable as a real car.

      Did you watch the videos?  Range is determined by the customer and space for battery packs.  As for safety it depends on the make model of the car and safety features.  Yes these are projects but the point is people are doing it.  Ten years ago these conversions did not exist.  Imagine driving around in a 1965 Ford Mustang or a 1991 Porche that’s an EV.

      These conversion kits and conversion to EV companies are just another indication EVs are becoming mainstream.  They are showing any car can be an EV, no matter how old or classic.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on December 18, 2018, 01:47:09 pm

      I have to ask would you not buy one?  Lease or finance the thing and you pay what something like $125 per moth for a new car?  With technology in EV cars changing faster than cell phones or computers who would want to keep a car longer than the life of EV batteries.


      Because I already have a paid off vehicle so it costs me $0 per month.  Thats what will slow adoption.  Somewhere I saw a metric that shows people are keeping vehicles longer than they used to so it will take a long time for everyone to adopt ev's
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 18, 2018, 01:59:58 pm
      Range? Charge time? Who is doing the maintenance? Safety? Judging from TV shows on car modification, in the US safety seems to be one of the last concerns... Nice toy projects but not suitable as a real car.
      Did you watch the videos?  Range is determined by the customer and space for battery packs.  As for safety it depends on the make model of the car and safety features.  Yes these are projects but the point is people are doing it.  Ten years ago these conversions did not exist.  Imagine driving around in a 1965 Ford Mustang or a 1991 Porche that’s an EV.

      These conversion kits and conversion to EV companies are just another indication EVs are becoming mainstream.  They are showing any car can be an EV, no matter how old or classic.
      You are missing the point. These kits have a very limited market. You won't be able to take it to a regular garage or dealer for maintenance. Also in many countries changing the engine / power means having the car re-certified (for good reasons!). Even in the US the insurance rate may go up significantly if you modify your car: https://www.dmv.org/insurance/modified-car-insurance-coverage.php (https://www.dmv.org/insurance/modified-car-insurance-coverage.php)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 18, 2018, 04:54:48 pm
      I did watch the video.  The wheel conversion kit looks like a neat performance enhancement, and possibly a useful way to convert to all electric.

      But the guy in the video is a salesman, and stretched the truth in several places, as have some of those touting these conversions.

      In the video, the cost of a 2 wheel conversion is given as just under $10,000.  And estimated that a rebuilt Prius battery would cost $2000-$3000.  So even without costs for the little odds and ends of nuts and bolts required to tie cables down and bolt pieces to the structure this isn't an under $10,000 dollar conversion.  Not necessarily a deal breaker, but once you have stretched the truth once, everything else you say is suspect.

      Installing in an hour seems like a miracle to me.  That sounds like plenty for removing the old wheels and hubs and installing the new hubs, but getting the holes cut for wiring, bolting in the control boxes, connecting to the CAN bus and bolting in the battery just sounds like more than what is left of the hour, even for someone who has done several of these installations.  Someone doing it on their own for the first time will be much longer.  On the other hand, finishing in a weekend seems very feasible and makes this a really practical, just oversold conversion.

      Other issues.  This particular conversion doesn't seem compatible with driven wheels and so converting wheels that don't already have a stationary hub will be a bigger deal.  But maybe I am missing something obvious.  Also requires a newer vehicle that already has CAN bus along with compatible traffic on that bus.  And indirect reference that there will be customization fees for vehicles with wheel sizes different than the Honda shown.  And the larger diameter brake rotor that makes room for the electric motor seems to require the low profile tires shown.  Good for going around corners.  Not so good if you regularly encounter pot holes and other road irregularities or value a smooth ride.

      Finally.  That particular conversion has absolutely horrible gear noise.  It dominated the tire noise, wind noise and the noise from the ICE.  The salesman tried to convert the wart into a feature by touting the "wonderful turbine-like sound", but most will tire of this rapidly.  Also such noise can be associated with gear wear so life may be an issue.  The noise problem should be susceptible to more engineering, but the available product isn't there yet.

      All in all an intriguing product, but not a magic solution for everyone.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 18, 2018, 05:52:43 pm
      I did watch the video.  The wheel conversion kit looks like a neat performance enhancement, and possibly a useful way to convert to all electric.

      But the guy in the video is a salesman, and stretched the truth in several places, as have some of those touting these conversions.

      In the video, the cost of a 2 wheel conversion is given as just under $10,000.  And estimated that a rebuilt Prius battery would cost $2000-$3000.  So even without costs for the little odds and ends of nuts and bolts required to tie cables down and bolt pieces to the structure this isn't an under $10,000 dollar conversion.  Not necessarily a deal breaker, but once you have stretched the truth once, everything else you say is suspect.

      Installing in an hour seems like a miracle to me.  That sounds like plenty for removing the old wheels and hubs and installing the new hubs, but getting the holes cut for wiring, bolting in the control boxes, connecting to the CAN bus and bolting in the battery just sounds like more than what is left of the hour, even for someone who has done several of these installations.  Someone doing it on their own for the first time will be much longer.  On the other hand, finishing in a weekend seems very feasible and makes this a really practical, just oversold conversion.

      Other issues.  This particular conversion doesn't seem compatible with driven wheels and so converting wheels that don't already have a stationary hub will be a bigger deal.  But maybe I am missing something obvious.  Also requires a newer vehicle that already has CAN bus along with compatible traffic on that bus.  And indirect reference that there will be customization fees for vehicles with wheel sizes different than the Honda shown.  And the larger diameter brake rotor that makes room for the electric motor seems to require the low profile tires shown.  Good for going around corners.  Not so good if you regularly encounter pot holes and other road irregularities or value a smooth ride.

      Finally.  That particular conversion has absolutely horrible gear noise.  It dominated the tire noise, wind noise and the noise from the ICE.  The salesman tried to convert the wart into a feature by touting the "wonderful turbine-like sound", but most will tire of this rapidly.  Also such noise can be associated with gear wear so life may be an issue.  The noise problem should be susceptible to more engineering, but the available product isn't there yet.

      All in all an intriguing product, but not a magic solution for everyone.

      No disagreements with anything you said.  But the one guy claims to have a 2-3 year waiting list for the conversions.  It would be intersting to see what custoerms have to say about each of the conversions.   Not sure if this is his main business or a side business for both of them.

      I wonder how many companies are doing this.  There are entire trade shows devoted to EV conversions so there must be more than the 3 companies I know of in California. 

       





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 18, 2018, 06:01:12 pm
      Because I already have a paid off vehicle so it costs me $0 per month.  Thats what will slow adoption.  Somewhere I saw a metric that shows people are keeping vehicles longer than they used to so it will take a long time for everyone to adopt ev's


      The goal has never been for everyone to adopt EVs, they do not cover everyone's needs. 50+ years from now there will likely still be a lot of ICE powered cars on the road and that's fine, replacing all of them is not necessary. The vast majority of cars on the road are less than 15 years old though, they do wear out or get wrecked, new cars are sold every day. Variety is an advantage, not a problem. With a variety of power sources we are not dependent on any one particular one.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 18, 2018, 06:03:32 pm
      No disagreements with anything you said.  But the one guy claims to have a 2-3 year waiting list for the conversions.  It would be intersting to see what custoerms have to say about each of the conversions.   Not sure if this is his main business or a side business for both of them.

      I wonder how many companies are doing this.  There are entire trade shows devoted to EV conversions so there must be more than the 3 companies I know of in California. 


      "Full Charged" on YouTube (Robert Llewellyn, Johnnie Smith) reviewed a UK company that had done a Land Rover, and they also covered the (factory done) E-type that was used in the recent royal wedding (I so want that E-type); so it's a popular thing in the UK.  Even Wheeler Dealers did a Masarati Bi-Turbo (although that could have been better)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 18, 2018, 06:28:34 pm
      No disagreements with anything you said.  But the one guy claims to have a 2-3 year waiting list for the conversions.  It would be intersting to see what custoerms have to say about each of the conversions.   Not sure if this is his main business or a side business for both of them.

      I wonder how many companies are doing this.  There are entire trade shows devoted to EV conversions so there must be more than the 3 companies I know of in California. 
      "Full Charged" on YouTube (Robert Llewellyn, Johnnie Smith) reviewed a UK company that had done a Land Rover, and they also covered the (factory done) E-type that was used in the recent royal wedding (I so want that E-type); so it's a popular thing in the UK.  Even Wheeler Dealers did a Masarati Bi-Turbo (although that could have been better)
      Jaguar are supposed to be releasing a conversion kit to turn 1960s E-Type Jaguars into EVs, in a reversable manner. Presumably this is commercialising the conversion which was done for the wedding.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 18, 2018, 06:35:58 pm
      I have to think the result of a conversion is going to be far less than optimal, especially if it's done on the cheap. Personally I'd rather leave classic cars in original condition, I mean how many people are commuting to work in a 1960s Jaguar? There are some cars that would make far better conversions than others, but overall it's still going to be a niche no matter what. Very few people are interested in dumping ~$10k into a random old car, I've had people give me older cars just because they needed a few hundred bucks worth of work that was trivial to do myself. Converting a car is like upgrading a very old PC, it can be done and once in a while it might even be cost effective, but for the vast majority of people it makes more sense to replace the whole thing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 18, 2018, 06:42:30 pm
      I have to think the result of a conversion is going to be far less than optimal, especially if it's done on the cheap. Personally I'd rather leave classic cars in original condition, I mean how many people are commuting to work in a 1960s Jaguar? There are some cars that would make far better conversions than others, but overall it's still going to be a niche no matter what. Very few people are interested in dumping ~$10k into a random old car, I've had people give me older cars just because they needed a few hundred bucks worth of work that was trivial to do myself. Converting a car is like upgrading a very old PC, it can be done and once in a while it might even be cost effective, but for the vast majority of people it makes more sense to replace the whole thing.
      If find it odd that they are making conversion kits, rather than whole new E-Type cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 18, 2018, 06:51:28 pm
      You can probably blame government regulations for that. Overzealous safety regulations make it impossible to reproduce older car models. Personally I think it should be possible to newly manufacture cars of an older design so long as they are sold as such and not implied to meet current regulations. Or just have an exempt class, which is currently done by making something with 3 wheels and classifying it as a motorcycle. 4 wheels would be safer all else being equal, but wouldn't allow exploiting that loophole. If there was an exempt class that didn't depend on the number of wheels then it would make things much simpler. Sort of like aircraft, there are "experimental" classed airplanes that do not have to meet all the requirements of certified craft.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 19, 2018, 12:46:18 pm
      You can probably blame government regulations for that. Overzealous safety regulations make it impossible to reproduce older car models. Personally I think it should be possible to newly manufacture cars of an older design so long as they are sold as such and not implied to meet current regulations. Or just have an exempt class, which is currently done by making something with 3 wheels and classifying it as a motorcycle. 4 wheels would be safer all else being equal, but wouldn't allow exploiting that loophole. If there was an exempt class that didn't depend on the number of wheels then it would make things much simpler. Sort of like aircraft, there are "experimental" classed airplanes that do not have to meet all the requirements of certified craft.

      Become a politician and write the law.  Every car company would love to be free of governmental regulation.  The reason we have and need governmental regulation is to protect the drivers, passengers and the public from car companies who created death traps.  How many years did it take for car companies to install seat belts?  Wasn’t it close to 25 years?  And how many millions of people lost their lives or were seriously injured in cars without seatbelts?  There are time we need to say thank you for gobernment regulation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on December 19, 2018, 01:29:42 pm
      Or maybe its because no one buys new jaguars?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 19, 2018, 01:34:34 pm
      You can probably blame government regulations for that. Overzealous safety regulations make it impossible to reproduce older car models. Personally I think it should be possible to newly manufacture cars of an older design so long as they are sold as such and not implied to meet current regulations. Or just have an exempt class, which is currently done by making something with 3 wheels and classifying it as a motorcycle. 4 wheels would be safer all else being equal, but wouldn't allow exploiting that loophole. If there was an exempt class that didn't depend on the number of wheels then it would make things much simpler. Sort of like aircraft, there are "experimental" classed airplanes that do not have to meet all the requirements of certified craft.
      You are probably right. A lot of incremental changes to lighting and other requirements over the decades would need to be worked into the old design, which might be aesthetically difficult. A 1960s car, even an up market one like a Jaguar, would get a 0 star NCAP rating if tested today. That might be a bit of an issue when trying to market the car, and would probably need some serious structural changes to address.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 19, 2018, 05:17:16 pm
      How about a Ford Pinto with the exploding gas tank?  Or the Ford Explodedr. Errr  I mean Explorer.
      Would they be except? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 19, 2018, 05:51:39 pm
      You can probably blame government regulations for that. Overzealous safety regulations make it impossible to reproduce older car models. Personally I think it should be possible to newly manufacture cars of an older design so long as they are sold as such and not implied to meet current regulations. Or just have an exempt class, which is currently done by making something with 3 wheels and classifying it as a motorcycle. 4 wheels would be safer all else being equal, but wouldn't allow exploiting that loophole. If there was an exempt class that didn't depend on the number of wheels then it would make things much simpler. Sort of like aircraft, there are "experimental" classed airplanes that do not have to meet all the requirements of certified craft.

      'Overzealous' regulations have dropped the death rate (per billion vehicle miles) from 49.2 in 1961 when the E-type was 1st released, down to 11.6 (2017) today. 

      Perhaps they weren't 'overzealous' after all, but instead very effective.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 19, 2018, 06:09:08 pm
      You can probably blame government regulations for that. Overzealous safety regulations make it impossible to reproduce older car models. Personally I think it should be possible to newly manufacture cars of an older design so long as they are sold as such and not implied to meet current regulations. Or just have an exempt class, which is currently done by making something with 3 wheels and classifying it as a motorcycle. 4 wheels would be safer all else being equal, but wouldn't allow exploiting that loophole. If there was an exempt class that didn't depend on the number of wheels then it would make things much simpler. Sort of like aircraft, there are "experimental" classed airplanes that do not have to meet all the requirements of certified craft.

      'Overzealous' regulations have dropped the death rate (per billion vehicle miles) from 49.2 in 1961 when the E-type was 1st released, down to 11.6 (2017) today. 

      Perhaps they weren't 'overzealous' after all, but instead very effective.

      Have to say as a kid growing up in America I remember seeing and hearing about deaths from highway accidents.  But as the years have passed accident rates have gone up, and if you look at some of the mangled cars one has to wonder why the people in the car were not killed.  And shockingly these people get extricated from cars or climb out without a scratch.  I think the only think we can all say is Thank You Government regulators for REQUIRING cars to be made safer for all of us. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 19, 2018, 07:19:11 pm
      'Overzealous' regulations have dropped the death rate (per billion vehicle miles) from 49.2 in 1961 when the E-type was 1st released, down to 11.6 (2017) today. 

      Perhaps they weren't 'overzealous' after all, but instead very effective.

      But shouldn't I be able to make that choice myself? I can buy a motorcycle, they're more dangerous than pretty much any car made in the last 50 years. People know they're dangerous, they buy them anyway. Why can't I buy an exempt class 4 wheeled car knowing it is likely more dangerous than a fully regulated modern car? I can still drive my existing nearly 30 year old car, why can't I buy a new one just like it? I call it overzealous because it takes that choice away from me, I don't need government regulations to protect me from myself.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 19, 2018, 07:24:42 pm
      Have to say as a kid growing up in America I remember seeing and hearing about deaths from highway accidents.  But as the years have passed accident rates have gone up, and if you look at some of the mangled cars one has to wonder why the people in the car were not killed.  And shockingly these people get extricated from cars or climb out without a scratch.  I think the only think we can all say is Thank You Government regulators for REQUIRING cars to be made safer for all of us.

      I walked away from a serious highway accident in a 30 year old Volvo, got creamed by a semi tanker truck and got out without a scratch. Volvo took safety seriously, it didn't have to be required. I chose the car largely because of its reputation as a safe car, not because it was forced on me by regulations. I immediately went out and found a very similar car just a couple years newer to replace it, I would buy a brand new one today if I could. I'm not going to thank the government for being a nanny, screw the government, I'm a huge fan of personal choice, and if a person chooses to buy a car that is clearly not in compliance with the latest safety regulations that is their choice. I chose to buy a used car knowing full well that it would not meet modern safety regulations, why can't I buy a new old car with that same knowledge?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: cdev on December 19, 2018, 09:15:31 pm
      'Overzealous' regulations have dropped the death rate (per billion vehicle miles) from 49.2 in 1961 when the E-type was 1st released, down to 11.6 (2017) today. 

      Perhaps they weren't 'overzealous' after all, but instead very effective.

      But shouldn't I be able to make that choice myself? I can buy a motorcycle, they're more dangerous than pretty much any car made in the last 50 years. People know they're dangerous, they buy them anyway. Why can't I buy an exempt class 4 wheeled car knowing it is likely more dangerous than a fully regulated modern car? I can still drive my existing nearly 30 year old car, why can't I buy a new one just like it? I call it overzealous because it takes that choice away from me, I don't need government regulations to protect me from myself.

      Sounds to me people who exprress opinions like yours rarely know how skewed the situation is, they beleive the claptrap about 'tort reform' which is largely a complete fabrication, or aren't really taking into account HOW stupid or how greedy manufacturers can sometimes be. Or how devastating the effects of their bad decision making can be to large numbers of people who make purchase decisions that turn into nightmares for them and have no way to get justice.

      (Also, keep in mind the astronomical rate of unintentional man-caused injuries in hospitals- now the third highest cause of death in the US.)

      But first lets look at a hypothetical injury caused by a manufacturer defect and the ability of the family of somebody who was killed by it to get justice.

      The laws are changing in favor of manufacturers because of the insane "law and economics movement" . What that means is that the chance people have of getting justice is much lower now than it was not long ago simply because of arguments like the one that the cost of fixing any mistake has to be weighed against the cost of paying off anybody who successfully sues and wins. (or more often than not because of subrogation clauses, Imagine this, somebody is injured by a known defect and is in a hospital and the cost is hundreds of dollars a day, but their health insurance company, and are about to be discharged, their family having no idea how they are going to pay for their care for the rest of their lives, after they have gone through a suit and spent their own money bringing the case, suddenly a hand reaches in and takes the money.)

       Additionally, cases that in the past would bring a substantial settlement no longer do because of falling incomes for people in various demographic categories and new rules in how cases are disposed of. Lives are worth less and less. This is likely by design.

      Falling incomes make the chance of every having to pay significant damage awards smaller and smaller because frankly, they are based on lost incomes and if the statistics say that somebody living in the victim's zip code is unlikely to earn much more in their lives after say 55 - well, lets just put it this way, in the US no matter how clear and damning the facts are no lawyer would take their case and without a lawyer on contingency hiring one will cost their bereaved family $300 an hour minimum.

      Another common problem in seeking justice is subrogation clauses. What that means is the health insurance company that paid benefits out to treat their injury gets repaid out of any money won first.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 19, 2018, 09:17:16 pm
      Have to say as a kid growing up in America I remember seeing and hearing about deaths from highway accidents.  But as the years have passed accident rates have gone up, and if you look at some of the mangled cars one has to wonder why the people in the car were not killed.  And shockingly these people get extricated from cars or climb out without a scratch.  I think the only think we can all say is Thank You Government regulators for REQUIRING cars to be made safer for all of us.

      I walked away from a serious highway accident in a 30 year old Volvo, got creamed by a semi tanker truck and got out without a scratch. Volvo took safety seriously, it didn't have to be required. I chose the car largely because of its reputation as a safe car, not because it was forced on me by regulations. I immediately went out and found a very similar car just a couple years newer to replace it, I would buy a brand new one today if I could. I'm not going to thank the government for being a nanny, screw the government, I'm a huge fan of personal choice, and if a person chooses to buy a car that is clearly not in compliance with the latest safety regulations that is their choice. I chose to buy a used car knowing full well that it would not meet modern safety regulations, why can't I buy a new old car with that same knowledge?

      If you are a big fan of personal choice than you should appreciate what Ford did Volvo's safety record in an effort to reduce costs.  I have owned two Volvo's and will admit they one of the safest cars on the road.  But... they cost a fortune in repairs.  My neighbor in over 10 years spent $12,000 more than he paid for the cost of the car.  Interesting to see what the Chinese are gong to do with Volvo. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: james_s on December 20, 2018, 01:44:20 am
      Ford ruined Volvo, they viewed it as just another brand, and changed the focus away from safety and practicality instead trying to compete with Audi in the luxury market. By the mid 2000's they had become bloated beyond recognition, almost 1,000 lbs heavier and full of massive amounts of silly gadgets and expensive luxury junk. I want something simple, sporty, and tremendously practical which is what I have now. It's fun to drive, I can fold down the back seat and transport a sofa, a stack of lumber or enough gear for a week long camping trip. It's mechanically simple and robust, easy to work on, sturdy and dependable.

      I haven't personally found the older ones to cost appreciably more than most other cars to maintain. I bought the '87 740 Turbo for $500 and drove it as a daily driver for 17 years before it got totaled. I probably spent on average $200-$300 a year in maintenance and it had 330,000 miles on it by the time it met its demise. I'd buy a brand new 740 today if I could, in my view it's as safe as a car needs to be. I can't buy a new one though so I'll continue driving an old one as long as I can find them and keep them going. There is a point of diminishing returns when adding more safety features and I would gladly pass on that extra small percentage of safety vs having my car written off because half a dozen airbags deploy in a relatively minor collision.

      It still seems silly to me that a 3 wheeled car can be exempt from the safety requirements but a four wheeled car can't. Why is that the deciding factor? If we are going to mandate safety then why can one still buy a motorcycle? At what point can we say something is good enough and stop mandating more and more bloat that makes cars unaffordable to buy and repair?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 20, 2018, 04:02:20 am
      The reason isn't right, but it is fairly simple.  Motorcycles are such a small part of the market they don't contribute much to the total deaths.  Death rate is too mathematically sophisticated for the politickers and those who elect them.  And motorcyclists lobby effectively for what they care about.  Those who care about simpler, sportier cars don't care enough to lobby effectively.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 20, 2018, 07:49:06 am
      Get into a serious accident in a car and one is liable to walk away.  Serious accident on a motorcycle Avon’s you far likely to be six feet under.

      As for 3 wheeled vehicles take a look at the Dymixa.  It was an amazing 3 wheeled car.  On the Highway the driver was killed in an accident.  That was the the end of 3 wheeled vehicles.  It latter came out the accident was caused by someone who gawking at the Damixa and hit it killing the driver.  But the “truth” came out after the damage in ther public eye was already irreserable.  Well worth Googling Damixa.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on December 20, 2018, 10:03:00 pm
      Get into a serious accident in a car and one is liable to walk away.  Serious accident on a motorcycle Avon’s you far likely to be six feet under.

      As for 3 wheeled vehicles take a look at the Dymixa.  It was an amazing 3 wheeled car.  On the Highway the driver was killed in an accident.  That was the the end of 3 wheeled vehicles.  It latter came out the accident was caused by someone who gawking at the Damixa and hit it killing the driver.  But the “truth” came out after the damage in ther public eye was already irreserable.  Well worth Googling Damixa.
      That's Dymaxion, by Buckminster Fuller.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 20, 2018, 10:35:26 pm
      Thank you for the correction.  Damixia is the manufacture of my kitchen faucet.   I was close.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on December 21, 2018, 09:46:33 am
      But shouldn't I be able to make that choice myself?
      No, you shouldn't.
      Uninformed car buyers are not in a position to make a good choice about safety.
      Also, you don't make the choice anyway, because you don't choose the car that will crash into you.
      A car has not only to be safe for the people inside, but also, as much as possible, for the people and vehicles it will hit.

      But you still have the choice of buying an used older car, if you like to ride death traps.

      Meanwhile, the safest car on the road is now an EV:
      https://newatlas.com/tesla-model-3-safest-car/56687/
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on December 21, 2018, 01:03:39 pm
      I wish someone would sell something than just a car though.

      I should have kept my old s10 and done a conversion like https://www.qsl.net/k5lxp/ev/evtruck/evtruck.html (https://www.qsl.net/k5lxp/ev/evtruck/evtruck.html)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 21, 2018, 03:37:07 pm
      I wish someone would sell something than just a car though.

      I should have kept my old s10 and done a conversion like https://www.qsl.net/k5lxp/ev/evtruck/evtruck.html (https://www.qsl.net/k5lxp/ev/evtruck/evtruck.html)

      What do you want that’s more than a car?  For decades a guy in California has been working on the Moller flying car.  He’s built and flown many poptotypes. Then I remember the amphibious ducks, car/boats.  Only problem with them is they sank.  And let’s not forget the Delorean car/submarine that’s was James Bond used.  Or the fusion powered Delorean in “Back to the Future”.  EV Deloreans were suppose to be produced.  And I’m sure one could buy Delorean and convert it to an EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: eugenenine on December 21, 2018, 05:57:15 pm
      Suv, cuv truck, etc.  I learned early on that cars are too limited, I'm willing to pay a little more for something with more functionality than just carrying people and a little bit of groceries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 21, 2018, 06:11:02 pm
      ... And let’s not forget the Delorean car/submarine that’s was James Bond used.  ....

      it was a Lotus, not a Delorean.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 22, 2018, 03:08:17 pm
      Here’s why Ford and VW will get along so well with each other.   Ford Execs prisoner for torturing employees.
      EV test drive - The good and the bad of EVs.

      https://youtu.be/Rqi5dJSYc2c

      https://youtu.be/PRTfVTETD8I


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 22, 2018, 04:05:24 pm
      ... And let’s not forget the Delorean car/submarine that’s was James Bond used.  ....

      it was a Lotus, not a Delorean.
      I thought everyone knew that a Lotus dives and a DeLorean flies.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 22, 2018, 07:09:48 pm
      ... And let’s not forget the Delorean car/submarine that’s was James Bond used.  ....

      it was a Lotus, not a Delorean.
      I thought everyone knew that a Lotus dives and a DeLorean flies.

      I thought Lotus (flowers) float and DeLorean’s go to jail and become electric.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 22, 2018, 09:37:50 pm
      I thought Lotus (flowers) float and DeLorean’s go to jail and become electric.
      By your standard, lotus is for eating and making tea.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 22, 2018, 10:33:15 pm
      Any Volt owners?  Over the past couple of weeks I've noticed after a full night of charging the battery range as indicated on the dash has dropped by close to 30%.  I realize it's winter and temperature here in California have dropped in the really cold low 60s.  Is a 30% decrease or just over 40 miles sound about "right" for colder temperature?  Or is this premature battery failure?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 23, 2018, 12:46:15 pm
      Here’s why EV’s won’t become mainstream in Australia any time soon.

      https://youtu.be/euGIg7lp3XY
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 23, 2018, 12:53:10 pm
      We definitely need a yadda yadda yadda yadda emoticon on EEVblog. This guy talks a lot but says nothing. Check his website. He claims he has a degree in mechanical engineering and yet he is a car salesman.  :palm: Didn't it occur to you that everything he says is driven by how he can make the most money from car sales?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on December 23, 2018, 03:02:11 pm
      We definitely need a yadda yadda yadda yadda emoticon on EEVblog. This guy talks a lot but says nothing. Check his website. He claims he has a degree in mechanical engineering and yet he is a car salesman.  :palm: Didn't it occur to you that everything he says is driven by how he can make the most money from car sales?
      He makes good points, but in the context of an Oz living in the burbs of a major metro.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 23, 2018, 05:43:56 pm
      We definitely need a yadda yadda yadda yadda emoticon on EEVblog. This guy talks a lot but says nothing. Check his website. He claims he has a degree in mechanical engineering and yet he is a car salesman.  :palm: Didn't it occur to you that everything he says is driven by how he can make the most money from car sales?

      For a guy who “makes his money from car sales” he sure bashes the products he sells.  And he must be really stupid as the more expensive car brands are the ones he bashes the most.

      I live in American and am not an engineer, but I did graduate with a science degree from UC Berkeley.  I gotta say his down under engineering explanations agree with the laws of physics we abide by in the United States.  What do you think he’s getting wrong when it comes to engineering/physics ?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 23, 2018, 05:47:36 pm
      We definitely need a yadda yadda yadda yadda emoticon on EEVblog. This guy talks a lot but says nothing. Check his website. He claims he has a degree in mechanical engineering and yet he is a car salesman.  :palm: Didn't it occur to you that everything he says is driven by how he can make the most money from car sales?
      For a guy who “makes his money from car sales” he sure bashes the products he sells.  And he must be really stupid as the more expensive car brands are the ones he bashes the most.
      Expensive car doesn't equal highest profit margin. Or he may not even be able to dip in that pond at all. Did you think about that?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 23, 2018, 06:58:34 pm
      We definitely need a yadda yadda yadda yadda emoticon on EEVblog. This guy talks a lot but says nothing. Check his website. He claims he has a degree in mechanical engineering and yet he is a car salesman.  :palm: Didn't it occur to you that everything he says is driven by how he can make the most money from car sales?
      For a guy who “makes his money from car sales” he sure bashes the products he sells.  And he must be really stupid as the more expensive car brands are the ones he bashes the most.
      Expensive car doesn't equal highest profit margin. Or he may not even be able to dip in that pond at all. Did you think about that?


      Yes I have, and I do agree with you.  But I asked you where do you find a flaw in his engineering or physics?  You seem to have a problem with things he has said, but haven't said what.  So what are yout taking issue with?  You might be right, but then again he might be.  Need more information to decide.




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 23, 2018, 09:45:00 pm
      Well, i watched the video until he mentioned that you need clean energy sources for the EVs to really make sense, and i agree with that. With polluting energy generation, you only get to move the pollution from the cars exhausts to the electric plants. That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
      EVs have regen. That's a very interesting technology, and saves energy. I heared that F1 use flywheels and/or electric systems, but didn't heared of any ICE car on the market that uses that. Maybe too expensive. Still, it seems logical to think that an electric motor attached to an ICE and a supercap bank, and power electronic systems, would allow to get regen and start/stop. The electric motor could replace the alternator and the starter.
      Supercaps are still expensive, however, and i have no idea how many of them would be needed to get a reasonable amount of regeneration, probably a lot of them. I hope that in the future the cost goes down, and high % regen be available.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 23, 2018, 10:32:34 pm
      FYI: the Toyota Prius has been on the market for 10 to 15 years already and it has regenerative braking + batteries right from the start. It is the whole idea behind the car: put an efficient (Atkinson cycle) ICE engine in it and use an electric motor to fill in the gaps where the ICE doesn't have a lot of power. Nowadays you can buy pure ICE cars with better mileage compared to the original Prius though.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 23, 2018, 10:51:52 pm
      FYI: the Toyota Prius has been on the market for 10 to 15 years already and it has regenerative braking + batteries right from the start. It is the whole idea behind the car: put an efficient (Atkinson cycle) ICE engine in it and use an electric motor to fill in the gaps where the ICE doesn't have a lot of power. Nowadays you can buy pure ICE cars with better mileage compared to the original Prius though.

      Well, i didn't meant a full hybrid car, but i suppose that an ice with electric regen qualifies as such. There are flywheel systems like the KERS, also, but not in any production car that i know about.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on December 24, 2018, 02:09:14 am
      Well, i watched the video until he mentioned that you need clean energy sources for the EVs to really make sense, and i agree with that. With polluting energy generation, you only get to move the pollution from the cars exhausts to the electric plants. That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
      The nice part about EVs is that you can install your own solar to go green.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 24, 2018, 05:43:00 am
      Well, i watched the video until he mentioned that you need clean energy sources for the EVs to really make sense, and i agree with that. With polluting energy generation, you only get to move the pollution from the cars exhausts to the electric plants. That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
      The nice part about EVs is that you can install your own solar to go green.

      Not quite unless you can take the solar panels with you on trips.  The leaf is doing this.  Only problem is I thing the solar panel that’s on the car would take several months to recharge the batteries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 24, 2018, 05:48:21 am
      Well, i watched the video until he mentioned that you need clean energy sources for the EVs to really make sense, and i agree with that. With polluting energy generation, you only get to move the pollution from the cars exhausts to the electric plants. That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
      EVs have regen. That's a very interesting technology, and saves energy. I heared that F1 use flywheels and/or electric systems, but didn't heared of any ICE car on the market that uses that. Maybe too expensive. Still, it seems logical to think that an electric motor attached to an ICE and a supercap bank, and power electronic systems, would allow to get regen and start/stop. The electric motor could replace the alternator and the starter.
      Supercaps are still expensive, however, and i have no idea how many of them would be needed to get a reasonable amount of regeneration, probably a lot of them. I hope that in the future the cost goes down, and high % regen be available.

      I thought you were objecting to something the guy was saying in the video. 

      I don’t think you will ever find flywheels of any size or energy storage in a passenger car.  While they do store a lot of energy, any idea what would happen to the stored energy in the flywheel in an accident?  In the Industrial Age flywheels were quite common and the destrriction they caused when a bearing failed was surprisingly quite large.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on December 24, 2018, 09:29:04 am
      Quote
      That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
      No it's not.
      From the energy point of view, the gain is huge: you'll need approx 2.5x less CO2.
      Yes you need 2.5x less oil to run EVs from 100% fossil plants !
      So even that non optimal setup makes muuuch sense.
      From other contaminants, it's even better, the gain for SO2 and particulates is over 100x, because most plants use electrostatic and/or wet scrubbers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 24, 2018, 12:58:21 pm
      Quote
      That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
      No it's not.
      From the energy point of view, the gain is huge: you'll need approx 2.5x less CO2.
      Yes you need 2.5x less oil to run EVs from 100% fossil plants !
      So even that non optimal setup makes muuuch sense.
      From other contaminants, it's even better, the gain for SO2 and particulates is over 100x, because most plants use electrostatic and/or wet scrubbers.
      It has been proven over and over again that that number isn't true when comparing against efficient ICE cars. Not to mention the huge amount of extra energy needed to make the EV's battery. The latter is a big problem when it comes to EVs. Cars are responsible for about 12% to 15% of CO2 emissions. Industry sits at around 40%. Producing EVs shifts part of the CO2 and other emissions to industry.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 24, 2018, 03:03:12 pm
      Quote
      That would move the contaminants out of the cities, but it's pretty lame without green energy.
      No it's not.
      From the energy point of view, the gain is huge: you'll need approx 2.5x less CO2.
      Yes you need 2.5x less oil to run EVs from 100% fossil plants !
      So even that non optimal setup makes muuuch sense.
      From other contaminants, it's even better, the gain for SO2 and particulates is over 100x, because most plants use electrostatic and/or wet scrubbers.

      And you are ommiyying the fact not all fossil fuel power plant have scrubbers and the ones that have them don’t always use them.  It costs a lot of money to power and maintain the scrubbers, something the power companies do not like to do.  In some cases the fines and court cases are far less than the cost of the cost of powering and maintaining the scrubbers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 24, 2018, 05:33:59 pm
      Not just that but emission limits depend on the age of the power plant. I never dug really deep into the emission limits of the power plants but it wouldn't surprise me when these are less strict compared to the latest euro6 limits for cars. One thing is for sure: a power plant lasts whole lot longer than a car so new emission limits for power plants take a lot longer to have any effect.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 24, 2018, 05:54:16 pm
      Still, burning fossil fuels to generate electricity is a very bad idea. Hardly an argument against the electric car, and more about human stupidity.
      With any luck, things like the Paris Agreement can begin to make a change. Let's hope it's not too late. The US withdrawal didn't make any favors to it, but i hope that a future president reconsiders. Fortunately, the US cannot actually withdrawn until 2020.
      It seems like some people need to wait until seawater enters the White House before realizing how much we are in deep shit. I mean, how many hurricanes need to hit concurrently at the same area to realize how serious the situation is?
      Lots of space to install eolic and solar generators. What's keeping that from happening?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 24, 2018, 09:53:06 pm
      Not just that but emission limits depend on the age of the power plant. I never dug really deep into the emission limits of the power plants but it wouldn't surprise me when these are less strict compared to the latest euro6 limits for cars. One thing is for sure: a power plant lasts whole lot longer than a car so new emission limits for power plants take a lot longer to have any effect.

      The TVA in the US is notoruois for running their power plants with the scrubbers turned off or prolonged delays in install scrubbers.  Correct me if I am wrong but the scrubbers do not remove heavy elements such as mercury, lead and the radioactive elements.  When coal and natural gas is burned every year millions ot tons of radioactive isotopes are released into the atomosphere for us to breath in.  Then there's the mercury which is now in our oceans.  Man has burned so much fossil fuel the we are limited to how much fish we can eat.

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on December 24, 2018, 10:01:05 pm
      Not just that but emission limits depend on the age of the power plant. I never dug really deep into the emission limits of the power plants but it wouldn't surprise me when these are less strict compared to the latest euro6 limits for cars. One thing is for sure: a power plant lasts whole lot longer than a car so new emission limits for power plants take a lot longer to have any effect.

      The TVA in the US is notoruois for running their power plants with the scrubbers turned off or prolonged delays in install scrubbers.  Correct me if I am wrong but the scrubbers do not remove heavy elements such as mercury, lead and the radioactive elements.  When coal and natural gas is burned every year millions ot tons of radioactive isotopes are released into the atomosphere for us to breath in.  Then there's the mercury which is now in our oceans.  Man has burned so much fossil fuel the we are limited to how much fish we can eat.
      Scrubbers have nothing to do with CO2 emissions.  They remove particulates and also NOX and SOX. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 24, 2018, 10:52:14 pm
      Not just that but emission limits depend on the age of the power plant. I never dug really deep into the emission limits of the power plants but it wouldn't surprise me when these are less strict compared to the latest euro6 limits for cars. One thing is for sure: a power plant lasts whole lot longer than a car so new emission limits for power plants take a lot longer to have any effect.

      The TVA in the US is notoruois for running their power plants with the scrubbers turned off or prolonged delays in install scrubbers.  Correct me if I am wrong but the scrubbers do not remove heavy elements such as mercury, lead and the radioactive elements.  When coal and natural gas is burned every year millions ot tons of radioactive isotopes are released into the atomosphere for us to breath in.  Then there's the mercury which is now in our oceans.  Man has burned so much fossil fuel the we are limited to how much fish we can eat.
      Scrubbers have nothing to do with CO2 emissions.  They remove particulates and also NOX and SOX.

      And what about mercury and radioactive isotopes?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 24, 2018, 11:22:29 pm
      Radioactive isotopes also tend to end up in what the scrubbers remove from the exhaust gasses. One of the end products is plaster.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on December 24, 2018, 11:56:42 pm
      Not just that but emission limits depend on the age of the power plant. I never dug really deep into the emission limits of the power plants but it wouldn't surprise me when these are less strict compared to the latest euro6 limits for cars. One thing is for sure: a power plant lasts whole lot longer than a car so new emission limits for power plants take a lot longer to have any effect.

      The TVA in the US is notoruois for running their power plants with the scrubbers turned off or prolonged delays in install scrubbers.  Correct me if I am wrong but the scrubbers do not remove heavy elements such as mercury, lead and the radioactive elements.  When coal and natural gas is burned every year millions ot tons of radioactive isotopes are released into the atomosphere for us to breath in.  Then there's the mercury which is now in our oceans.  Man has burned so much fossil fuel the we are limited to how much fish we can eat.
      Scrubbers have nothing to do with CO2 emissions.  They remove particulates and also NOX and SOX.

      And what about mercury and radioactive isotopes?
      Got me.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 25, 2018, 12:45:57 am
      I just got back from a 2200 mi (3500 km Round trip) visit to relatives that provides some insight into the position of EVs in the market in the Western US.  The trip is one I make multiple times a year and as many have pointed out these long trips often have better alternatives than a car.  But it seldom works that way for me.  In this case, associated with Christmas, there would have been significant costs, concern about delivery schedule and concern about handling for the Christmas gifts involved.  One of the stops is an elderly relative where I do the maintenance that she no longer can do, nor can she properly vet local tradesmen.  So tool transport is also involved.  Multiple stops hints at why some of the other options are less appealing.  My use case isn't the issue here.

      The meat of the observations is as follows.  Of the hundreds of vehicles observed, I only recognized 5 full electric vehicles - all Teslas.  Four were on the interstate between cities.  Not surprisingly, all four were within 200 miles (320 miles) of the San Francisco Bay area.  Clearly they are practical for some long distance trips.  There may have been others, but I would have recognized the common ones like Bolt, Leaf and electric Prius.  But then those shorter range vehicles are much less practical on long trips so I wouldn't expect to have seen them out on the open road.  I also saw one Volt.

      Based on the license plates of cars surrounding me a significant percentage were making somewhat similar treks.  In the stretches between cities somewhere between 10 and 20 percent were from at least one state away.  While some of these may have been transplants who had not changed their plates yet, the fully loaded cars, some with roof top carriers and other clues indicate that most were in transit.  In California, where most of the mileage occurred, same state plates don't necessarily indicate a short trip.  The long leg of my trip described next is almost entirely within California.

      The longest leg of the trip is just over 600 miles (960 km).  With an ICE vehicle I do it in roughly 12 hours.  One fueling stop if trip is started with full tank, usually do two to get better fuel prices and more leg stretching.  Two meals.  Two or more comfort breaks.  Hypothetically may involve long stretches driving 20% or more faster than posted speed limits to save time for more of those stops.  Also to keep up with average traffic flow.  I'm not sure if the best EVs can come within half an hour of that time or not.  Depends if they can combine their best range with those hypothetical speeds.  Maybe so, maybe not.  But the real kicker at the moment is that this trip was holiday season.  A lot of people on the road.  Lines of varying length at everything.  SWMBO needed Starbucks at the first stop and it took over half an hour.  (Good news for electric if there wasn't a line at the charging station and if the Starbucks is within walking distance, it gives time to charge.).  But with all of that, the longest stop for fuel was under 15 minutes, including the wait in line, and what seemed to be a slow pump.  I timed the delivery rate at 6 gallons per minute, which according to Google is at the low end of what stations try to deliver since their business model demands high sales.  Legal limit in US is 10 gal per minute.  Right now, with so few EVs on the road there probably isn't too much waiting in line for a charger.  But as market penetration grows, you would expect the same market forces that drive gas stations to prevail.  The system will be sized for typical use or a little more, and during high demand periods will get saturated. 

      I draw two conclusions from this.  One, in spite of the rather impressive sales and sales growth of electric vehicles, they are still a just barely noticeable presence in the US market.  On par with the exotics, but still something that causes a double take when seen.  Second, while the best EVs will satisfy some of the long range demands of the US driver, they will be challenged to meet the holiday treks common to Americans in the western part of the country. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on December 25, 2018, 04:51:47 pm
      It has been proven over and over again that that number isn't true when comparing against efficient ICE cars.
      Nope. That's bullshit.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on December 25, 2018, 05:15:11 pm
      It has been proven over and over again that that number isn't true when comparing against efficient ICE cars.
      Nope. That's simply  bullshit.
      Just google "well to wheel EV"

      in the first results :
      https://insideevs.com/evs-are-61-cleaner-than-gas-in-minnesota-well-to-wheels-analysis/ (https://insideevs.com/evs-are-61-cleaner-than-gas-in-minnesota-well-to-wheels-analysis/)
      https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/ (https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/)

      If you need it in a real study look at slide 37:
      http://www.jari.or.jp/portals/0/jhfc/e/data/seminar/fy2005/pdf/06_h17seminar_e.pdf (http://www.jari.or.jp/portals/0/jhfc/e/data/seminar/fy2005/pdf/06_h17seminar_e.pdf)
      (http://f4eru.free.fr/well2wheel.png)
      BEV just bearts everything. Simply. Today.
      Can't change the laws of thermodynamic, eh :)

      But of course, that's getting much better than this 2.5x, which is calculated for 100% fossil electricity.
      This is not the case any more, except in some very few countries.
      For CO2 in today's world, as the PV and other renewables slowly ramp up, the CO2 emissions /km of EVs is getting much better every single day....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 25, 2018, 05:36:43 pm
      And you think a pro-EV website is going to provide accurate numbers?  :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on December 25, 2018, 08:46:03 pm
      And you think a pro-EV website is going to provide accurate numbers?  :palm:
      Nope. Wrong again.  :-DD
      Quote
      Japan Automobile Research Institute (JARI) is a general incorporated foundation dedicated to automotive testing and research activities.
      Petrolheads. They say the same exact thing.
      Using science.  :-+

      As I said, you can't defeat basic thermodynamics.
      Many have tried, none have ever succeeded.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 25, 2018, 09:03:10 pm
      I don't need a research instute which says what it is paid to say. I showed you the actual (very simple) math many times already.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on December 25, 2018, 09:06:05 pm
      Nope. You didn't show anything useful.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 25, 2018, 10:13:58 pm
      (http://f4eru.free.fr/well2wheel.png)

      That's, for BEVs, 0.9e6/3600= 250 Wh/km, or 25 kWh/100km, or 40.2 kWh/100 miles, 402 Wh/mile.

      Electric grid losses are about 6.5%
      Thermal power plant efficiency is between 33 and 48%
      Charger+Battery round trip efficiency is ~= 85%

      The figures in the chart would mean that a BEV can run a hundred kilometers with 25*0.4*0.935*0.85= 7.9 kWh, or a hundred miles with 12.7 kWh

      :bullshit:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 25, 2018, 10:26:19 pm
      Indeed it is an excellent example on how statistics can be made to lie and how research institutes just go for the money while throwing professional ethics out of the window.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on December 26, 2018, 06:45:41 am
      Indeed it is an excellent example on how statistics can be made to lie and how research institutes just go for the money while throwing professional ethics out of the window.
      So everyone is lying except your saintly self?
      That explains everything...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 26, 2018, 07:49:42 am
      Indeed it is an excellent example on how statistics can be made to lie and how research institutes just go for the money while throwing professional ethics out of the window.
      So everyone is lying except your saintly self?
      That explains everything...

      Remember, this is the same guy that claimed that the additional energy required to travel at 130km/h into a headwind vs 100km/h without a headwind was magically more for EVs than it was for ICE powered vehicles.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 26, 2018, 08:03:21 am
      Remember, this is the same guy that claimed that the additional energy required to travel at 130km/h into a headwind vs 100km/h without a headwind was magically more for EVs than it was for ICE powered vehicles.

       :bullshit:

      Who? When? Where?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on December 26, 2018, 09:23:48 am
      Indeed it is an excellent example on how statistics can be made to lie and how research institutes just go for the money while throwing professional ethics out of the window.
      So everyone is lying except your saintly self?
      That explains everything...

      Remember, this is the same guy that claimed that the additional energy required to travel at 130km/h into a headwind vs 100km/h without a headwind was magically more for EVs than it was for ICE powered vehicles.
      Is he an engineer or does he just play one on the internet?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 26, 2018, 11:51:06 am
      Indeed it is an excellent example on how statistics can be made to lie and how research institutes just go for the money while throwing professional ethics out of the window.
      So everyone is lying except your saintly self?
      That explains everything...

      Remember, this is the same guy that claimed that the additional energy required to travel at 130km/h into a headwind vs 100km/h without a headwind was magically more for EVs than it was for ICE powered vehicles.
      I never claimed that! Please show the quote! You most probably misread or misunderstood.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 26, 2018, 11:52:15 am
      Indeed it is an excellent example on how statistics can be made to lie and how research institutes just go for the money while throwing professional ethics out of the window.
      So everyone is lying except your saintly self?
      No, but as Doug already showed some critical thinking alone shows the errors in the graph. Hint: electricity isn't a primary energy source. I used to work at a research institute for a short while and one of the topics of discussion was to how ethical it was to try and proof things with questions steering towards a certain conclusing asked by the customer. If you read a scientific report you always need to figure out who is paying for it. For example a report paid for by the tabacco industry isn't going to claim smoking will kill you for sure. You can't trust scientific reports at face value.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 26, 2018, 02:07:20 pm
      If you read a scientific report you always need to figure out who is paying for it. For example a report paid for by the tabacco industry isn't going to claim smoking will kill you for sure. You can't trust scientific reports at face value.
      Yeah, reminds me of all the studies a few years ago saying it was healthy to eat more fat and protein, and that saturated fat wasn't bad at all... turns out all the research was paid for by the meat and dairy industry. ::)

      Besides, most published single studies are wrong, even if they do everything right, for purely statistical reasons. That dosen't mean science isn't worthwhile, it's still the best option we have, but in general you need to look at meta studies that evaluate the findings from many different studies.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 26, 2018, 11:41:42 pm
      Remember, this is the same guy that claimed that the additional energy required to travel at 130km/h into a headwind vs 100km/h without a headwind was magically more for EVs than it was for ICE powered vehicles.

       :bullshit:

      Who? When? Where?

      Here, where he claimed that additional forces of drag that cause an EV's range to drop, wouldn't have the same affect on a ICE car.

      https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1965452/#msg1965452 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1965452/#msg1965452)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 27, 2018, 12:19:06 am
      Remember, this is the same guy that claimed that the additional energy required to travel at 130km/h into a headwind vs 100km/h without a headwind was magically more for EVs than it was for ICE powered vehicles.

       :bullshit:

      Who? When? Where?

      Here, where he claimed that additional forces of drag that cause an EV's range to drop, wouldn't have the same affect on a ICE car.

      https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1965452/#msg1965452 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1965452/#msg1965452)
      Ah. You are forgetting about turning the heater on, having the airconditioning on and/or driving in very cold weather. So you are conveniently twisting things out of contex. Ofcourse I don't dignify such obvious trolling with a response.

      BTW I was just repeating what your fellow e-Golf owner has stated in his write up of his experiences with the car. He is the one pitching concerns about head wind. Did anyone ever consider the impact of head wind on the range of a normal car? Then why all the sudden does it matter for an EV?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 27, 2018, 12:29:37 am
      Remember, this is the same guy that claimed that the additional energy required to travel at 130km/h into a headwind vs 100km/h without a headwind was magically more for EVs than it was for ICE powered vehicles.

       :bullshit:

      Who? When? Where?

      Here, where he claimed that additional forces of drag that cause an EV's range to drop, wouldn't have the same affect on a ICE car.

      https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1965452/#msg1965452 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1965452/#msg1965452)
      Ah. You are forgetting about turning the heater on, having the airconditioning on and/or driving in very cold weather. So you are conveniently twisting things out of contex. Ofcourse I don't dignify such obvious trolling with a response.

      BTW I was just repeating what your fellow e-Golf owner has stated in his write up of his experiences with the car. He is the one pitching concerns about head wind. Did anyone ever consider the impact of head wind on the range of a normal car? Then why all the sudden does it matter for an EV?

      Again, are you claiming the energy required to drive the AC on an ICE car takes no energy?

      Taking 2hp off the motor, vs having a 2hp [electric] compressor draws 2 horsepower, no matter what fuel it's powered by.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 27, 2018, 01:01:43 am
      It has been proven over and over again that that number isn't true when comparing against efficient ICE cars.
      Nope. That's simply  bullshit.
      Just google "well to wheel EV"

      in the first results :
      https://insideevs.com/evs-are-61-cleaner-than-gas-in-minnesota-well-to-wheels-analysis/ (https://insideevs.com/evs-are-61-cleaner-than-gas-in-minnesota-well-to-wheels-analysis/)
      https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/ (https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/)

      If you need it in a real study look at slide 37:
      http://www.jari.or.jp/portals/0/jhfc/e/data/seminar/fy2005/pdf/06_h17seminar_e.pdf (http://www.jari.or.jp/portals/0/jhfc/e/data/seminar/fy2005/pdf/06_h17seminar_e.pdf)
      (http://f4eru.free.fr/well2wheel.png)
      BEV just bearts everything. Simply. Today.
      Can't change the laws of thermodynamic, eh :)

      But of course, that's getting much better than this 2.5x, which is calculated for 100% fossil electricity.
      This is not the case any more, except in some very few countries.
      For CO2 in today's world, as the PV and other renewables slowly ramp up, the CO2 emissions /km of EVs is getting much better every single day....

      The slide is from a seminar in 2005 (they talk about ongoing research, not the final report so not a "real study")

      See attached image for full slide.

      In the text that had been cropped it says they base the calculations on how Japan generated electricity (sometime before 2005) which implies a lot of nuclear and a little renewable energy in the mix.

      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3b/Electricity_Production_in_Japan.svg/640px-Electricity_Production_in_Japan.svg.png)
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Japan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Japan)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 27, 2018, 02:44:46 am
      Here is a 2014 report from the EC:
      https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/eur-scientific-and-technical-research-reports/well-wheels-report-version-4a-jec-well-wheels-analysis (https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/eur-scientific-and-technical-research-reports/well-wheels-report-version-4a-jec-well-wheels-analysis)

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=606052;image)
      GHG: Greenhouse gas
      DISI: An ICE using the Direct Injection Spark Ignition technology
      PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
      REEV: Range Extended Electric Vehicle
      BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle

      Some 2007 US emission rates (g CO2 / kWh) for comparison:
      ( source: http://www.miloslick.com/EnergyLogger_files/State_Electricity_and_Emissions_Rates.pdf (http://www.miloslick.com/EnergyLogger_files/State_Electricity_and_Emissions_Rates.pdf) )
      District of Columbia 1600
      North Dakota 1100
      California 300
      Idaho 70
      Vermont 3

      So, yes, it matters how the electricity is produced, but BEV looks like it's normally a good option.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jh15 on December 27, 2018, 11:34:32 am
      Just some FYI, I don't pay much attention to "gas mileage". Last week, going on a relatively long ride (to the HRO candy store in NH) in my wife's Tesla S I noticed the mielage was around 270 watthours/mile. Usually it is 300-350.  Just to be safe, stopped by a supercharger, and it said good for home in less than 10 minutes, but we were still waiting to be served at a carnivorerium. It was charging at 300 mi/hr vs our home 220 13 amp which is 10 mi/hour.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 27, 2018, 11:37:23 am
      Remember, this is the same guy that claimed that the additional energy required to travel at 130km/h into a headwind vs 100km/h without a headwind was magically more for EVs than it was for ICE powered vehicles.

       :bullshit:

      Who? When? Where?

      Here, where he claimed that additional forces of drag that cause an EV's range to drop, wouldn't have the same affect on a ICE car.

      https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1965452/#msg1965452 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1965452/#msg1965452)
      Ah. You are forgetting about turning the heater on, having the airconditioning on and/or driving in very cold weather. So you are conveniently twisting things out of contex. Ofcourse I don't dignify such obvious trolling with a response.

      BTW I was just repeating what your fellow e-Golf owner has stated in his write up of his experiences with the car. He is the one pitching concerns about head wind. Did anyone ever consider the impact of head wind on the range of a normal car? Then why all the sudden does it matter for an EV?

      Again, are you claiming the energy required to drive the AC on an ICE car takes no energy?

      Taking 2hp off the motor, vs having a 2hp [electric] compressor draws 2 horsepower, no matter what fuel it's powered by.
      Ofcourse not. Stop reading what isn't there! It is very simple: on an ICE car the impact on the range is much less because an ICE car brings way more energy along. Your 2kW AC motor (hp is not an SI unit) draws 5% of charge from a 40kWh battery in one hour while on an ICE (with a 50 litre tank) it draws around 1% in one hour.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 27, 2018, 04:48:46 pm
      Remember, this is the same guy that claimed that the additional energy required to travel at 130km/h into a headwind vs 100km/h without a headwind was magically more for EVs than it was for ICE powered vehicles.

       :bullshit:

      Who? When? Where?

      Here, where he claimed that additional forces of drag that cause an EV's range to drop, wouldn't have the same affect on a ICE car.

      https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1965452/#msg1965452 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg1965452/#msg1965452)
      Ah. You are forgetting about turning the heater on, having the airconditioning on and/or driving in very cold weather. So you are conveniently twisting things out of contex. Ofcourse I don't dignify such obvious trolling with a response.

      BTW I was just repeating what your fellow e-Golf owner has stated in his write up of his experiences with the car. He is the one pitching concerns about head wind. Did anyone ever consider the impact of head wind on the range of a normal car? Then why all the sudden does it matter for an EV?

      Again, are you claiming the energy required to drive the AC on an ICE car takes no energy?

      Taking 2hp off the motor, vs having a 2hp [electric] compressor draws 2 horsepower, no matter what fuel it's powered by.
      Ofcourse not. Stop reading what isn't there! It is very simple: on an ICE car the impact on the range is much less because an ICE car brings way more energy along. Your 2kW AC motor (hp is not an SI unit) draws 5% of charge from a 40kWh battery in one hour while on an ICE (with a 50 litre tank) it draws around 1% in one hour.

      No one has argued against the fact that ICE vehicles have longer ranges, because they carry more energy.

      And, running into a headwind at higher speed, with the AC on, will reduce your maximum range; no one argued that either.

      What you don't seem to grasp is that it reduces your maximum range by the same percentage no matter if your vehicle is EV or ICE.  If driving at 100km/h requires 25hp (18½kW) to overcome the frictional forces, and driving at 130km/h into a 30km/h headwind with the AC on requires 50hp (37kW), it's a 100% increase in energy consumption, ICE or EV. That could be electricity flowing from the battery, or liquid hydrocarbons flowing from a tank.  Fuel consumption (once into the power band) of most ICE engines is relative linear in terms of kg of fuel per hp per hour.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 27, 2018, 05:48:43 pm
      It's not the same for heating though, since with an ICE you can use waste heat from the engine to heat the passenger compartment. I think I read somewhere about a BEV which had an optional kerosene heter.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 27, 2018, 05:59:44 pm
      Agreed to all points in the previous post.  I have definitely observed the range differences in my ICE vehicles.  The range of what I typically drive on long trips can vary from just over 300 miles (480 km) under adverse conditions (high speed, headwind and rain) to over 450 miles (720km) under optimum conditions (speed just above the transition from the friction dominated regime to the drag dominated regime with a tailwind).

      What is different between ICE and EV is the range margin to other limits like time between comfort breaks etc.

      The best EV have little or no range margin to a wide variety of users in long range driving.  (Agree that EV have lots of range margin for the daily short range drives that constitute most trips.)

      The majority of ICE have significant range margin.

      There can be a lot of discussion as to what that long range definition is, and to how much range margin is required.  Most would agree that the desired range is somewhere in the 200 to 350 mile  (300 to 600 km) ballpark.  Many EV have negative margin to these distances.  The best electric car (a Tesla which claims 335 mi range) has somewhere between a small negative margin to 70% margin to the desired range, depending on your definition.  There are a very few ICE vehicles that do not have range margin to the shortest range figure, while some have 100% margin to the long end of the desirable range.  If you are operating with only a few percent margin you have to worry about wind and air conditioning.  ICE vehicles are less likely to be operating in that few percent margin case, no matter how you define range requirements.

      For me the desired long range segment is about 325 miles (520 km).  So under very adverse conditions I end up with very little or even negative range margin in the ICE vehicle mentioned above.  Which is why I have my gas gauge well calibrated and know all of the many options for refueling on that route segment.  I can tell from the gas gauge if driving conditions have negatively affected range, and can select an earlier stop if necessary.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 27, 2018, 06:01:14 pm
      It's not the same for heating though, since with an ICE you can use waste heat from the engine to heat the passenger compartment. I think I read somewhere about a BEV which had an optional kerosene heter.
      In fact, at the typical efficiency (or lack of it) of an ICE, it's more accurate to say that it's a heating device than an engine :D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: BrianHG on December 27, 2018, 06:16:12 pm
      It's not the same for heating though, since with an ICE you can use waste heat from the engine to heat the passenger compartment. I think I read somewhere about a BEV which had an optional kerosene heter.
      Not true.  You can use the waste heat from the battery's liquid cooling radiator to warm the interior in the exact same way you use the waste heat from an ICE's liquid cooling radiator.

      That battery pack's heat is generated and passed through it's radiator when driving the car whether you heat the interior, or not.  It is the choice of the car's designers whether they use or waste this heat in the winter.  Yes, the battery starts out much cooler and you will need a hybrid system to warm the cabin, but, the batteries do waste a ton of heat and once warmed up, their cooling radiator's output in the winter can mostly be directed to warming the cabin switching off the resistive element or heatpump heater.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 27, 2018, 07:46:20 pm
      It's not the same for heating though, since with an ICE you can use waste heat from the engine to heat the passenger compartment. I think I read somewhere about a BEV which had an optional kerosene heter.
      ICE cars sold in northern climates also have kerosene or gasoline burners on the options list. Its not for normal operation. Its for times when a breakdown or accident leaves you stranded without the engine able to stop you freezing to death.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 27, 2018, 08:13:56 pm
      It's not the same for heating though, since with an ICE you can use waste heat from the engine to heat the passenger compartment. I think I read somewhere about a BEV which had an optional kerosene heter.
      ICE cars sold in northern climates also have kerosene or gasoline burners on the options list. Its not for normal operation. Its for times when a breakdown or accident leaves you stranded without the engine able to stop you freezing to death.
      \
      So BEV cars do emit CO2 at times.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 27, 2018, 08:49:53 pm
      It's not the same for heating though, since with an ICE you can use waste heat from the engine to heat the passenger compartment. I think I read somewhere about a BEV which had an optional kerosene heter.
      Not true.  You can use the waste heat from the battery's liquid cooling radiator to warm the interior in the exact same way you use the waste heat from an ICE's liquid cooling radiator.

      They could, but they don't: https://insideevs.com/energy-consumption-of-various-tesla-heating-features/

      Quote
      One of the few disadvantages of EVs is that they don’t create the excess heat associated with ICE vehicles. Energy from the battery must be used to produce heat when the cold weather sets in. The Tesla Model S and Model X use resistance heating (think of a space heater) to heat the cabin. Other Tesla heating features include, heated seats, defrosters, heated wipers, and heated mirrors provide protection against the cold.

      tesla-heating-2
      KmanAuto Uses An App Called Remote S To Measure Power Consumption
      This is all part of the reason that EVs lose range in the winter, or in generally colder climates. How much power do heating features consume?

      The YouTube video by Model S owner, Kman Auto, spells it all out.

      Chris shows us Tesla’s SubZero Weather Package and its power impact. His breakdown is below, and thanks to Teslarati, we also have estimated range reduction by the amount of miles per hour.

      Baseline (vehicle at rest but powered up): 247 Wh = .74 mph
      Defroster (rear window & side mirror heaters): 285 Wh = .86 mph
      Steering Wheel Heater: 95 Wh = .29 mph
      Heated Wipers & Nozzles: 95Wh = .29 mph
      1 Seat Heater: 57 Wh = .17 mph
      2 Seat Heaters: 1cabin reached 108 F quickly33 Wh = .40 mph
      3 Seat Heaters: 171 Wh = .51 mph
      4 Seat Heaters: 209 Wh = .63 mph
      5 Seat Heaters: 247 Wh = .74 mph
      HVAC at ‘HI’ or 82F (28C): 6.4 kWh = ~18..20 mph
      HVAC at 74F (23C): 342 Wh = 1.03 mph


      Why? Because I2R losses in the battery aren't anywhere near 6 kW, I think. If they were the efficiency of EVs would be a disaster: between 25 and 33% I2R losses (?).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 27, 2018, 08:55:25 pm
      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3b/Electricity_Production_in_Japan.svg/640px-Electricity_Production_in_Japan.svg.png)
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Japan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Japan)

      In the text that had been cropped it says they base the calculations on how Japan generated electricity (sometime before 2005) which implies a lot of nuclear and a little renewable energy in the mix.

      A lot of fossil fuels, a little nuclear, and a tiny bit of renewables I would say. ¿No?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 27, 2018, 08:57:47 pm
      \
      So BEV cars do emit CO2 at times.

      At all times.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 27, 2018, 09:11:02 pm
      It's not the same for heating though, since with an ICE you can use waste heat from the engine to heat the passenger compartment. I think I read somewhere about a BEV which had an optional kerosene heter.
      Not true.  You can use the waste heat from the battery's liquid cooling radiator to warm the interior in the exact same way you use the waste heat from an ICE's liquid cooling radiator.

      They could, but they don't: https://insideevs.com/energy-consumption-of-various-tesla-heating-features/

      Quote
      One of the few disadvantages of EVs is that they don’t create the excess heat associated with ICE vehicles. Energy from the battery must be used to produce heat when the cold weather sets in. The Tesla Model S and Model X use resistance heating (think of a space heater) to heat the cabin. Other Tesla heating features include, heated seats, defrosters, heated wipers, and heated mirrors provide protection against the cold.

      tesla-heating-2
      KmanAuto Uses An App Called Remote S To Measure Power Consumption
      This is all part of the reason that EVs lose range in the winter, or in generally colder climates. How much power do heating features consume?

      The YouTube video by Model S owner, Kman Auto, spells it all out.

      Chris shows us Tesla’s SubZero Weather Package and its power impact. His breakdown is below, and thanks to Teslarati, we also have estimated range reduction by the amount of miles per hour.

      Baseline (vehicle at rest but powered up): 247 Wh = .74 mph
      Defroster (rear window & side mirror heaters): 285 Wh = .86 mph
      Steering Wheel Heater: 95 Wh = .29 mph
      Heated Wipers & Nozzles: 95Wh = .29 mph
      1 Seat Heater: 57 Wh = .17 mph
      2 Seat Heaters: 1cabin reached 108 F quickly33 Wh = .40 mph
      3 Seat Heaters: 171 Wh = .51 mph
      4 Seat Heaters: 209 Wh = .63 mph
      5 Seat Heaters: 247 Wh = .74 mph
      HVAC at ‘HI’ or 82F (28C): 6.4 kWh = ~18..20 mph
      HVAC at 74F (23C): 342 Wh = 1.03 mph


      Why? Because I2R losses in the battery aren't anywhere near 6 kW, I think. If they were the efficiency of EVs would be a disaster: between 25 and 33% I2R losses (?).

      I am not sure how to interpret range reduction with units of speed (mph=miles per hour).  There is something missing here - a duration in hours or a base range or something.   It is also interesting that one seat heater used 57 WH, while two used 108 (the second seat used only 51 WH, maybe manufacturing variability?).  Two seat heaters are more than twice the WH of one, but mph drops by more than two?
      Similar interesting effects when seats 3, 4 and 5 are added in.

      There is surely some basis to all of these numbers, but it is really hard to make sense of them.  Maybe the author has a second career writing data sheets.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 27, 2018, 10:37:41 pm
      A lot of fossil fuels, a little nuclear, and a tiny bit of renewables I would say. ¿No?
      At 2000 it looks like about 60% fossil fuels, about 30% nuclear, 9% hydro and 1% other renewable.
      Someone said the calculations was based on 100% coal, but in reality it was a lot of additional nuclear and some hydro in the mix. Besides, Japan's fossil fuel is not only coal.
      I found a better graph here:
      https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2015.02.11/main.png (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2015.02.11/main.png)

      As the other graph (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg2070448/#msg2070448) shows a BEV can be worse than PHEV and even ICE if you plan on charging it with electricity only from coal power plants. In some places where they have mostly coal power (North Dakota, Australia, South Africa, Poland, India) a PHEV might be the best option wrt GhG emissions.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on December 27, 2018, 11:21:27 pm
      Couldn't a heater be integrated into the glass by adding a conductive layer similar to what's used for LCDs? That combined with making the glass double pane should be able to greatly cut down on the power needed to prevent the glass from fogging up.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 27, 2018, 11:27:40 pm
      Couldn't a heater be integrated into the glass by adding a conductive layer similar to what's used for LCDs? That combined with making the glass double pane should be able to greatly cut down on the power needed to prevent the glass from fogging up.
      That already exists. It works well but the wires are somewhat visible. AFAIK this has been abandoned already by car manufacturers because it makes it very expensive to replace the glass. Also remember that the front window often is an integral part of the structural strength of the body of the car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 28, 2018, 12:06:27 am
      Couldn't a heater be integrated into the glass by adding a conductive layer similar to what's used for LCDs? That combined with making the glass double pane should be able to greatly cut down on the power needed to prevent the glass from fogging up.

      Yes, electrically heated windshields are standard equipment on my EV (and a lot of other higher-end EV and ICE vehciles), and it works very very quickly.  I'd guess that the additional cost of the small wires embedded, adds a small amount to the total cost of the windshield, but it's a smallish number when compared to the labour and shipping costs of a windshield replacement.

      Looking at the numbers that someone else posted, the ones in Green are EV only, the ones in red would equally apply to an EV or ICE vehicle as an ICE would have to generate the electricity.  This is the kind of annoying argument that pro-ICE people throw out, and never stop to think about; Electricity & Air Con are not free on an ICE vehicle, they cost hydrocarbons to generate/operate.  In fact I'd argue that the AC is likely more efficient on an EV because it's operating in a cooler environment and not surrounded by a very very hot engine mass.

      Baseline (vehicle at rest but powered up): 247 Wh = .74 mph
      Defroster (rear window & side mirror heaters): 285 Wh = .86 mph
      Steering Wheel Heater: 95 Wh = .29 mph
      Heated Wipers & Nozzles: 95Wh = .29 mph
      1 Seat Heater: 57 Wh = .17 mph
      2 Seat Heaters: 1cabin reached 108 F quickly33 Wh = .40 mph
      3 Seat Heaters: 171 Wh = .51 mph
      4 Seat Heaters: 209 Wh = .63 mph
      5 Seat Heaters: 247 Wh = .74 mph
      HVAC at ‘HI’ or 82F (28C): 6.4 kWh = ~18..20 mph
      HVAC at 74F (23C): 342 Wh = 1.03 mph


      As for total 'idle' power consumption, my car with the heater on medium, on a cool (2C) day, the front and rear defroster, headlights etc, I've never seen more than about 1.5kW (or that's what is being reported); although my heater is a heat pump, not just a coil of wire.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2018, 12:12:46 am
      Again, an EV is only as efficient as it's electricity source. It makes no sense to compare EV efficiency because electricity isn't a primary energy source. Electricity is just a way to transport energy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on December 28, 2018, 01:05:27 am
      Again, an EV is only as efficient as it's electricity source. It makes no sense to compare EV efficiency because electricity isn't a primary energy source. Electricity is just a way to transport energy.

      So if i charge my car from solar panels, which have about 30% efficiency converting light into charge,  my car is only 30% efficient ? 
      I can't put my finger on it but, that can't be right ...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: BrianHG on December 28, 2018, 01:07:36 am
      Baseline (vehicle at rest but powered up): 247 Wh = .74 mph
      Defroster (rear window & side mirror heaters): 285 Wh = .86 mph
      Steering Wheel Heater: 95 Wh = .29 mph
      Heated Wipers & Nozzles: 95Wh = .29 mph
      1 Seat Heater: 57 Wh = .17 mph
      2 Seat Heaters: 1cabin reached 108 F quickly33 Wh = .40 mph
      3 Seat Heaters: 171 Wh = .51 mph
      4 Seat Heaters: 209 Wh = .63 mph
      5 Seat Heaters: 247 Wh = .74 mph
      HVAC at ‘HI’ or 82F (28C): 6.4 kWh = ~18..20 mph
      HVAC at 74F (23C): 342 Wh = 1.03 mph


      As for total 'idle' power consumption, my car with the heater on medium, on a cool (2C) day, the front and rear defroster, headlights etc, I've never seen more than about 1.5kW (or that's what is being reported); although my heater is a heat pump, not just a coil of wire.

      Are these heater values continuous?
      My car is usually warm and windows defrosted after 5-10 minutes, then the output of these devices are usually off except for the cabin heater occasionally pulsing on and off at around 10-15% duty cycle...
      That is unless you drive with the windows open in the winter...

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2018, 01:11:49 am
      Again, an EV is only as efficient as it's electricity source. It makes no sense to compare EV efficiency because electricity isn't a primary energy source. Electricity is just a way to transport energy.
      So if i charge my car from solar panels, which have about 30% efficiency converting light into charge,  my car is only 30% efficient ? 
      I can't put my finger on it but, that can't be right ...
      It is right by definition because only 30% of the input power ends up going into your car (and then subtract battery and drive train losses to get to the wheels). Oh and also take into account that every kWh from your solar panels releases several tens of grams of CO2 into the atmosphere due to the manufacturing process.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 28, 2018, 01:37:02 am
      So if i charge my car from solar panels, which have about 30% efficiency converting light into charge,  my car is only 30% efficient ? 
      I can't put my finger on it but, that can't be right ...
      What matter isn't efficiency but pollution since that causes harm to humans and the environment, GhG emissions since it causes climate change, and also the cost of course. These factors are often correlated with efficiency, so better efficiency translates to better overall, but it might not be the most important parameter to look at.

      Oh and also take into account that every kWh from your solar panels releases several tens of grams of CO2 into the atmosphere due to the manufacturing process.
      It depends on how the PV cells are produced, if you used only renewable energy when producing them you could get that number down closer to zero. (And it's a lot better than the kg of CO2 per kWh you get from coal.)

      Interestingly, old nuclear reactors can have a fuel efficiency that is only a few percent, they are still economical and produce very little waste since the energy contents of an atom nucleus is so enormous. Their CO2 contribution comes mainly from from the concrete used in the reactor building.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 28, 2018, 02:05:43 am
      Again, an EV is only as efficient as it's electricity source. It makes no sense to compare EV efficiency because electricity isn't a primary energy source. Electricity is just a way to transport energy.
      So if i charge my car from solar panels, which have about 30% efficiency converting light into charge,  my car is only 30% efficient ? 
      I can't put my finger on it but, that can't be right ...
      It is right by definition because only 30% of the input power ends up going into your car (and then subtract battery and drive train losses to get to the wheels). Oh and also take into account that every kWh from your solar panels releases several tens of grams of CO2 into the atmosphere due to the manufacturing process.
      But you need to manufacture the panels only once. And solar panels aren't the only kind of solar plant. And there are other kind of clean power plants.
      But the important thing, is that producing electricity from solar energy, even if not by very efficient means won't get us killed. ICEs could be around 30% also (with some luck), and those things are driving climate change. When you fill your's car gas tank, roughly 1/3 of it will be used to move the car, and the other 2/3 will be used to heat the universe a little more (and 100% of it will release CO2 in the process which will heat our planet quite a lot). That's not very good.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 28, 2018, 02:14:42 am
      Again, an EV is only as efficient as it's electricity source. It makes no sense to compare EV efficiency because electricity isn't a primary energy source. Electricity is just a way to transport energy.

      So if i charge my car from solar panels, which have about 30% efficiency converting light into charge,  my car is only 30% efficient ? 
      I can't put my finger on it but, that can't be right ...

      And apparently gathering and distilling crude oil, along with distribution is completely energy free !
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 28, 2018, 10:18:22 am
      I am not sure how to interpret range reduction with units of speed (mph=miles per hour).

      No no, it's not a speed, it's miles of range per hour with the aircon on: one hour at HI => 20 miles less of range.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 28, 2018, 11:06:35 am
      HVAC at ‘HI’ or 82F (28C): 6.4 kWh = ~18..20 mph

      As for total 'idle' power consumption, my car with the heater on medium, on a cool (2C) day, the front and rear defroster, headlights etc, I've never seen more than about 1.5kW (or that's what is being reported); although my heater is a heat pump, not just a coil of wire.

      Yes Boffin, your figures to me always seem too good to be true :-) e.g. in this case, the tesla owner reports 6.4 kW and you only 1.5 kW. Hahaha.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on December 28, 2018, 11:55:49 am
      Couldn't a heater be integrated into the glass by adding a conductive layer similar to what's used for LCDs? That combined with making the glass double pane should be able to greatly cut down on the power needed to prevent the glass from fogging up.

      Yes, electrically heated windshields are standard equipment on my EV (and a lot of other higher-end EV and ICE vehciles), and it works very very quickly.  I'd guess that the additional cost of the small wires embedded, adds a small amount to the total cost of the windshield, but it's a smallish number when compared to the labour and shipping costs of a windshield replacement.

      Looking at the numbers that someone else posted, the ones in Green are EV only, the ones in red would equally apply to an EV or ICE vehicle as an ICE would have to generate the electricity.  This is the kind of annoying argument that pro-ICE people throw out, and never stop to think about; Electricity & Air Con are not free on an ICE vehicle, they cost hydrocarbons to generate/operate.  In fact I'd argue that the AC is likely more efficient on an EV because it's operating in a cooler environment and not surrounded by a very very hot engine mass.

      Baseline (vehicle at rest but powered up): 247 Wh = .74 mph
      Defroster (rear window & side mirror heaters): 285 Wh = .86 mph
      Steering Wheel Heater: 95 Wh = .29 mph
      Heated Wipers & Nozzles: 95Wh = .29 mph
      1 Seat Heater: 57 Wh = .17 mph
      2 Seat Heaters: 1cabin reached 108 F quickly33 Wh = .40 mph
      3 Seat Heaters: 171 Wh = .51 mph
      4 Seat Heaters: 209 Wh = .63 mph
      5 Seat Heaters: 247 Wh = .74 mph
      HVAC at ‘HI’ or 82F (28C): 6.4 kWh = ~18..20 mph
      HVAC at 74F (23C): 342 Wh = 1.03 mph


      As for total 'idle' power consumption, my car with the heater on medium, on a cool (2C) day, the front and rear defroster, headlights etc, I've never seen more than about 1.5kW (or that's what is being reported); although my heater is a heat pump, not just a coil of wire.

      The ordinary car heater that keeps the interior of an ICE car warm is just waste heat from the engine which would otherwise be radiated outside.
      OK, they do use a fan which needs a small amount of electricity.

      Interestingly, back in the day, many cars in Australia were not fitted with heaters, as our Winters were regarded as too "mild" to require them.
      My first car heater was an "after market" unit which did not use a fan, but thanks to the uncomplicated ventilation systems of the day was one of the most efficient ones I have encountered.

      Air conditioning does, of course, use power which needs to be supplied ultimately by the engine, as do rear window heaters
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 28, 2018, 04:13:36 pm
      HVAC at ‘HI’ or 82F (28C): 6.4 kWh = ~18..20 mph

      As for total 'idle' power consumption, my car with the heater on medium, on a cool (2C) day, the front and rear defroster, headlights etc, I've never seen more than about 1.5kW (or that's what is being reported); although my heater is a heat pump, not just a coil of wire.

      Yes Boffin, your figures to me always seem too good to be true :-) e.g. in this case, the tesla owner reports 6.4 kW and you only 1.5 kW. Hahaha.

      How are my numbers different from the Tesla ones.  I said "Heater on Medium", front and rear defroster.  Looking at the Tesla numbers
      Baseline (vehicle at rest but powered up): 247 Wh = .74 mph
      Defroster (rear window & side mirror heaters): 285 Wh = .86 mph
      1 Seat Heater: 57 Wh = .17 mph
      HVAC at 74F (23C): 342 Wh = 1.03 mph


      Add those numbers up and you're under 1kW, so how is my 1.5kW "too good to be true" ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 28, 2018, 05:46:44 pm
      Add those numbers up and you're under 1kW, so how is my 1.5kW "too good to be true" ?

      Because you said 2°C and when it's almost freezing outside nobody puts the heater in "medium".
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 28, 2018, 05:48:03 pm
      Thanks for the clarification on the meaning of mph.  Lovely language we have where words have different meanings and now abbreviations/acronyms do also.

      It is not surprising that running the air conditioner on a 72 degree F day has little effect on range.  In most cases I don't even turn it on under those conditions.  EVs will do fine in San Franscisco, Hawaii and other mild climates.  I'm sure that the numbers would be frightening in Phoenix or Aussie lands where temperatures of 105F (40C) are common for almost half the year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 28, 2018, 06:13:55 pm
      Thanks for the clarification on the meaning of mph.  Lovely language we have where words have different meanings and now abbreviations/acronyms do also.

      It is not surprising that running the air conditioner on a 72 degree F day has little effect on range.  In most cases I don't even turn it on under those conditions.  EVs will do fine in San Franscisco, Hawaii and other mild climates.  I'm sure that the numbers would be frightening in Phoenix or Aussie lands where temperatures of 105F (40C) are common for almost half the year.

      I don't think it's quite the doom and gloom that people say, but I don't live in a jurisdiction where it hits 40C to give a real-world answer.  At 30ish during the summer, the AC never drew more than a 1kW on my car.

      The AC to cool what is quite a small 'room' (3m x 2m - albeit with a lot of glass and badly insulated compared to a house) drawing 2kW (nearly 50% more than a wall plugin AC could draw at a home) is only a 11% penalty on a 18kWh/100km car.  Will it hurt, sure, will it destroy the range? no.  And that assumes the compressor is running 100% of the time and not cycling.  Also, the increase in energy consumption running the AC is identical EV or ICE, so in the context of the EV vs ICE argument, AC is a non-issue at all.

      In the real world the AC in an EV is likely slightly more efficient vs an ICE AC; as it's not placed right next to a giant lump of very hot steel/aluminium.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 28, 2018, 07:46:17 pm
      Also, the increase in energy consumption running the AC is identical EV or ICE, so in the context of the EV vs ICE argument, AC is a non-issue at all.

      6.4 kW is ~ 1/3 of the power needed to move the car, I wouldn't call it a non-issue, EVs (unlike ICEs) have an already poor range and this makes it even worse.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 28, 2018, 09:31:40 pm
      Also, the increase in energy consumption running the AC is identical EV or ICE, so in the context of the EV vs ICE argument, AC is a non-issue at all.


      6.4 kW is ~ 1/3 of the power needed to move the car, I wouldn't call it a non-issue, EVs (unlike ICEs) have an already poor range and this makes it even worse.

      As I keep pointing out, you are using absolutely worst case scenario numbers (again), and not real world number; nor are you considering the equivalent performance of an ICE car.

      Maybe 6.4kW for the 1st sixty seconds to initially defrost (which is fast as it's electric), but once you come off max/max/max it drops down.
      And remember, in an ICE car you'd be sitting waiting for the engine to warm so the defroster would work; wasting fuel.

      However, in the real "I'm in the car driving somewhere" world the number is 1.6kW, pretty insignificant compared to a 18kW/100km.  I just went out for lunch and when I reached my destination (only 2km away), with the outside temp of 3½°C, I stopped and looked at what the consumption with
      and the car was using 1.6kW

      With the benefit that the heater worked the whole way, not just for  the last 500m after it had warmed up.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 28, 2018, 09:45:11 pm
      See attached info-graphic about the impact of cold weather (from 2014-01-16).
      Source is this pro-EV site https://www.fleetcarma.com/cold-weather-fuel-efficiency/ (https://www.fleetcarma.com/cold-weather-fuel-efficiency/)
      I've also read that some BEVs keep the heater on in the battery compartment even when the car is parked (in cold weather), which means it will slowly drains the battery if you leave it unplugged. I think EVs are great in general but they do have a range problem and that gets worse in cold weather.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2018, 10:16:39 pm
      How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 28, 2018, 10:17:52 pm
      See attached info-graphic about the impact of cold weather (from 2014-01-16).
      Source is this pro-EV site https://www.fleetcarma.com/cold-weather-fuel-efficiency/ (https://www.fleetcarma.com/cold-weather-fuel-efficiency/)
      I've also read that some BEVs keep the heater on in the battery compartment even when the car is parked (in cold weather), which means it will slowly drains the battery if you leave it unplugged. I think EVs are great in general but they do have a range problem and that gets worse in cold weather.

      Thanks for the reference.  As shown, it demonstrates the less than 10% penalty (vs ICE).  I'm sure the ICE guys will take your graphic and say "see - 29% worse" not considering their ICE dropped 19% as well (and will likely complain they never saw that much drop off)

      I've seen my winter (and it has been only down to about 3-4C here of late, so not as cold as those numbers) range drop from 220k down to about 195k.

      As for the draining battery that some people report, could also be the fact that most EVs can be programmed to pre-condition the cabin prior to departure (so every morning my car is already warm when I get into it).  If I forget to turn that off, that's a couple of kWh/day that disappears.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: dr.diesel on December 28, 2018, 10:33:51 pm
      How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.

      I have always noticed a mileage difference in the winter, even for long trips.  A couple reasons come to mind:

       - Diesel gets mixed with kerosene to prevent gelling here in the US, making it less energy dense.  (perhaps not in the western/southern states, but all the cold areas this is done at all fill-up stations)
       - Much higher viscosity of the diesel oil, 15w-40 engine oil, 85w-90 gear old in front rear diff etc
       - Cold tires

      Cars probably don't notice quite as much, but trucks for-sure do, however, not 19% either.

      On a separate note, and subject to personal opinion, but Larry Ellison joining Tesla can't do anything but hurt progress of adoption.  (Having personal experience with Oracle for years)   :horse:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 28, 2018, 10:43:22 pm
      How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
      One factor is that cold air is denser so the air resistance increases, you might have worse road conditions (especially with snow) and lower tire pressure, and electric powered heaters like seat heaters and such also affect an ICE. They also mention some factors at the bottom of the graphic that indicate major factors are cold start and excessive idling/warmup. I'm not sure but got the impression they have data-loggers installed in several cars that they then use to make statistics from. They appear to be very pro-EV though, would be nice with a better source but this was all I could find that had more than anecdotes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on December 28, 2018, 11:12:59 pm
      How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
      Some years ago I used to measure my gas consumption every time I filled the tank, and never noticed any variation between summer and winter. I used to find this odd, actually. I didn't do many short journeys, but I still expected some hit from the longer warming up periods in winter. They were actually too small to show up in the measurements.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 28, 2018, 11:18:28 pm
      I found some data on Tesla model S heaters and HVAC power requirements: https://www.teslarati.com/energy-saving-tips-tesla-subzero-weather-using-seat-heaters/ (https://www.teslarati.com/energy-saving-tips-tesla-subzero-weather-using-seat-heaters/)

      Some interesting parts (the article is longer):

      At one point, Kman turns on the heater to ‘HI’ (82F) – commonly used by owners when first entering a frigid car – and measures a staggering 16.8A, 6.4kW of power consumed, or 18+ miles of range lost per hour. Though running the heater at HI for an hour is an unlikely scenario, especially considering the fact that the cabin temperature quickly reached 108 degrees Fahrenheit (42C) within a short amount of time, Kman brings to light that quickly warming up a vehicle using the heater could have significant and detrimental effects on range.


      Tesla Subzero Weather Package + HVAC Energy Consumption

      Energy consumption has been broken down by feature. Total energy consumption can be added together based on the number of features that are enabled.

      Assuming a consumption of 333Wh/mile, we can compute the approximate range loss at miles per hour (mph) as a result of having these heating features on.

          Baseline (vehicle at rest but powered up): 247 Wh = .74 mph
          Defroster (rear window & side mirror heaters): 285 Wh = .86 mph
          Steering Wheel Heater: 95 Wh = .29 mph
          Heated Wipers & Nozzles: 95Wh = .29 mph
          1 Seat Heater: 57 Wh = .17 mph
          2 Seat Heaters: 133 Wh = .40 mph
          3 Seat Heaters: 171 Wh = .51 mph
          4 Seat Heaters: 209 Wh = .63 mph
          5 Seat Heaters: 247 Wh = .74 mph
          HVAC at ‘HI’ or 82F (28C): 6.4 kWh = ~18-20 mph
          HVAC at 74F (23C): 342 Wh = 1.03 mph

      ---------------

      Does that mean that the HVAC system uses 6.4 kW to get a 28 degree C difference, but only 342 W to get a 23 degree C difference? Isn't that like too much of a difference?

      Also, 6.4 kW seems like a lot to me, considering that one room air conditioner here (with a quite decent size) has a maximum power requirement of 3.2 kW. But i don't know anything about car HVAC systems, maybe they need to be that large for some reason?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 28, 2018, 11:19:48 pm
      How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
      One factor is that cold air is denser so the air resistance increases, you might have worse road conditions (especially with snow) and lower tire pressure, and electric powered heaters like seat heaters and such also affect an ICE. They also mention some factors at the bottom of the graphic that indicate major factors are cold start and excessive idling/warmup.
      There is the red herring! It seems the testers let the cars run idle for a long time and then drove a very short distance. Stupid pro-EV websites  :palm: Do they really think we're all idiots?

      When I commuted a lot with my cars I never found a large variation due to season changes. The variation was around 2% when driving the same route and filling up at the same gas station for thousands of kilometers. What did impact fuel consumption measurably where switching to a higher quality fuel and having eco-tuning on the engine.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 28, 2018, 11:54:56 pm
      How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
      One factor is that cold air is denser so the air resistance increases, you might have worse road conditions (especially with snow) and lower tire pressure, and electric powered heaters like seat heaters and such also affect an ICE. They also mention some factors at the bottom of the graphic that indicate major factors are cold start and excessive idling/warmup.
      There is the red herring! It seems the testers let the cars run idle for a long time and then drove a very short distance. Stupid pro-EV websites  :palm: Do they really think we're all idiots?

      When I commuted a lot with my cars I never found a large variation. The variation was around 2% when driving the same route and filling up at the same gas station for thousands of kilometers. What did impact fuel consumption measurably where switching to a higher quality fuel and having eco-tuning on the engine.
      I don't think they have testers but rather install data loggers in a lot of cars which if done properly could give them decent 'in situ' data. If "real people" do not use engine heaters and let their cars idle to stay warm then it makes sense to include that in the statistics.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 29, 2018, 06:49:47 am
      How the hell do they get to a 19% reduction of range on an ICE car? Back when I was still measuring fuel consumption on my diesel cars I never noticed any measurable changes in fuel consumption between summer and winter. Perhaps the authors of the website let the ICE engine idle for 10 minutes and then drove 5km or so. There is no sensible way to explain it otherwise.
      One factor is that cold air is denser so the air resistance increases, you might have worse road conditions (especially with snow) and lower tire pressure, and electric powered heaters like seat heaters and such also affect an ICE. They also mention some factors at the bottom of the graphic that indicate major factors are cold start and excessive idling/warmup.
      There is the red herring! It seems the testers let the cars run idle for a long time and then drove a very short distance. Stupid pro-EV websites  :palm: Do they really think we're all idiots?

      When I commuted a lot with my cars I never found a large variation due to season changes. The variation was around 2% when driving the same route and filling up at the same gas station for thousands of kilometers. What did impact fuel consumption measurably where switching to a higher quality fuel and having eco-tuning on the engine.

      Cold weather means higher fuel consumption
      The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that a drop in temperature from 24°C to 7°C can increase fuel consumption in urban commutes by 12 to 28%.
      ref: https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21032 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21032)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 29, 2018, 10:48:55 am
      Twisting numbers again: it says 'urban commutes' which I translate into letting it idle for 10 minutes and drive a few km. The solution is simple: clear the windows of water or ice and start driving immediately. If I do that the heater of my car starts to get warm after 200 meters of driving.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 29, 2018, 11:33:50 am
      No one seems to be mentioning the formulation of gas or energy density of gas changes between summer and winter.  Gas prices are always lower in the winter when when gs contains less energy.   

      The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) says conventional summer-blend gasoline contains 1.7 percent more energy than winter-blend gas, which is one reason why gas mileage is slightly better in the summer. However, the summer-blend is also more expensive to produce, and that cost is passed on to the motorist.

      Same is true for electricity.  I am a PG&E customer and our winter electrity traates aare lower in the winter and higher in the summer.  If can mislead you in saying on average the electrity rates are $0.07 less expensive in the winter.  Reason I say this is misleading is because there are many different ways to calculate average prices for electricity.  In reality the cost of electrity when charging the car only changes for off peak hours is on the order of a hundredth of a cent.  It’s the peak and off peak hours whcih change the most causing this atinomy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 30, 2018, 09:27:43 am
      Also, the increase in energy consumption running the AC is identical EV or ICE, so in the context of the EV vs ICE argument, AC is a non-issue at all.
      6.4 kW is ~ 1/3 of the power needed to move the car, I wouldn't call it a non-issue, EVs (unlike ICEs) have an already poor range and this makes it even worse.
      As I keep pointing out, you are using absolutely worst case scenario numbers (again), and not real world number; nor are you considering the equivalent performance of an ICE car.

      Boffin, you know very well that the heat for the cabin heater of an ICE comes from the water of the radiator, it's heat that's dumped into the cabin that would otherwise be dumped outside, and therefore means exactly zero additional kilowatts, so why you keep trying to prove otherwise is beyond me. Please stop behaving like the typical EV fanboy, you can do better I'm sure.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 30, 2018, 09:44:50 am
      Let's do the math. If the efficiency of an ICE were ~ 45%, and to move a car on average you need say 18 kWh/100km, it means an ICE dumps as heat 0.55*18/0.45 = 22 kWh/100km, even 1/3 of that is plenty enough to heat the cabin.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 30, 2018, 01:44:02 pm
      Let's do the math. If the efficiency of an ICE were ~ 45%, and to move a car on average you need say 18 kWh/100km, it means an ICE dumps as heat 0.55*18/0.45 = 22 kWh/100km, even 1/3 of that is plenty enough to heat the cabin.
      That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
      More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
      Take a look at this. Quite an analysis they have done on the entire vehicle: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on December 30, 2018, 02:43:58 pm
      Let's do the math. If the efficiency of an ICE were ~ 45%, and to move a car on average you need say 18 kWh/100km, it means an ICE dumps as heat 0.55*18/0.45 = 22 kWh/100km, even 1/3 of that is plenty enough to heat the cabin
      That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
      More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
      Take a look at this. Quite an analysis they have done on the entire vehicle: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml)

      I think the point is that the very inefficiency of the ICE engine means that the wasted energy is available
      free, & using it to heat the car interior means that energy doesn't have to be found from the engine's mechanical output.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 30, 2018, 03:21:27 pm
      Let's do the math. If the efficiency of an ICE were ~ 45%, and to move a car on average you need say 18 kWh/100km, it means an ICE dumps as heat 0.55*18/0.45 = 22 kWh/100km, even 1/3 of that is plenty enough to heat the cabin
      That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
      More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
      Take a look at this. Quite an analysis they have done on the entire vehicle: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml)

      I think the point is that the very inefficiency of the ICE engine means that the wasted energy is available
      free, & using it to heat the car interior means that energy doesn't have to be found from the engine's mechanical output.

      Yes. Exactly. And diesels are notably more efficient than gasoline engines.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine)
      Quote
      Low-speed diesel engines (as used in ships and other applications where overall engine weight is relatively unimportant) can have a thermal efficiency that exceeds 50%
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on December 30, 2018, 05:18:16 pm
      But produce many more toxic side product and more finedust which kills people.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2018, 05:21:16 pm
      But produce many more toxic side product and more finedust which kills people.
      That is mainly due to the poor quality fuel being used and lack of emissions regulations.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on December 30, 2018, 05:34:37 pm
      Diesel iafaik per definition a lower quality fuel from the destillation process
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2018, 05:40:34 pm
      Diesel iafaik per definition a lower quality fuel from the destillation process
      That is nonsense. Diesel fuel is a different product from distillation because it has a different boiling point. But besides that ships don't run on diesel oil but much heavier oils. AFAIK these types of oil need to be heated before they can be used in a diesel engine. Remember you can make a diesel engine run on almost any kind of oil. So diesel engine doesn't equal diesel fuel.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on December 30, 2018, 06:28:20 pm
      So what causes the extra pollutants if diesel is equally clean as petrol?
      Combustion temperature?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2018, 06:34:12 pm
      So what causes the extra pollutants if diesel is equally clean as petrol?
      Combustion temperature?
      The biggest problem is that a diesel by definition has excess air in the cylinder which causes NOx to form more easely (combustion temperature also plays a role). A petrol engine has a controlled amount of air in the cylinder. By adjusting the amount of fuel based on the O2 sensor in the exhaust the burning of the fuel can be controlled better. Both diesel and petrol engines use exhaust gas recirculation to reduce the combustion temperature.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: glarsson on December 30, 2018, 06:35:01 pm
      So what causes the extra pollutants if diesel is equally clean as petrol?
      Combustion temperature?
      Higher combination temperature increases efficiency and production of NOx. You had to choose efficiency (lower CO2) or lower NOX until Volkswagen found the final solution.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on December 30, 2018, 07:08:05 pm
      That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
      More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
      That's still much too optimistic.
      An ICE has 30-40%, but not an ICE in an ICE car.

      The average efficiency of an ICE in a car is 14% (gas) to 19%(Diesel).
      So yes, there are more than 80% losses, except in the few seconds of optimum load of the engine (when accelerating)
      it's a rolling heater, so yes, it has an advantage in the winter.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2018, 07:19:22 pm
      Your numbers are way off -as usual- for an efficient ICE. These do reach 30% to 40% nowadays because they have small engines with a turbocharger to make sure there is a wide RPM and load range where the engine is efficient. Ofcourse you can find an old Ford model-T which is very inefficient but nobody drives these any more.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 30, 2018, 07:39:28 pm
      Do you understand chemistry and the chemical reactions involved in cracking crude oil to make diesel and gasoline?  If you know your crude oil history gasoline was considered a waste product.  No one knew what do to with it so it was dumped into rivers as a waste product. 

      What allows diesel engines to operate based on how much fuel is injected? One reason is the ability of diesels to operate within a very wide range of air/fuel ratios. Gasoline engines generally operate within a range of about 12 to 18 parts air to 1 part fuel (by mass). Usually, this ratio stays pretty close to 14.7:1, as at this ratio all of the fuel and oxygen is completely used up. A diesel engine, however, generally operates from 18:1 to as high as 70:1, and is capable of operating in super lean ratios. When you press the accelerator pedal in a diesel engine, this drops the air/fuel ratio. Significantly more fuel is injected relative to the air ingested, which increases horsepower. Soot is created when diesel engines operate in low air/fuel ratios, which is why you may see black smoke from diesel trucks when they floor the throttle pedal. Ultimately, while the four major strokes are the same for both diesel and gasoline engines, the finer details reveal the highly unique characteristics of each engine type.

      And then there is engine braking.

      https://youtu.be/rXVJG9n6BAs

      https://youtu.be/C1uM3GtzHTU


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on December 30, 2018, 08:05:20 pm
      That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
      More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
      That's still much too optimistic.
      An ICE has 30-40%, but not an ICE in an ICE car.

      The average efficiency of an ICE in a car is 14% (gas) to 19%(Diesel).
      So yes, there are more than 80% losses, except in the few seconds of optimum load of the engine (when accelerating)
      it's a rolling heater, so yes, it has an advantage in the winter.
      And there is volumetric efficiency, all things being  equal, a smaller engine has lower max possible efficiency:
      For example, more of the combustion is close enough to the cylinder wall to lose energy as heat, and as the piston goes down during the power stroke, the difference just lets bigger until it’s not even fun anymore.
      FYI, a 667kW per cylinder engine gets about 40% efficiency in ideal conditions, in its sweet spot and with good fuel (we adjust injection to density and other factors).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 30, 2018, 08:08:53 pm
      That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
      More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
      That's still much too optimistic.
      An ICE has 30-40%, but not an ICE in an ICE car.

      The average efficiency of an ICE in a car is 14% (gas) to 19%(Diesel).
      So yes, there are more than 80% losses, except in the few seconds of optimum load of the engine (when accelerating)
      it's a rolling heater, so yes, it has an advantage in the winter.
      And there is volumetric efficiency, all things being  equal, a smaller engine has lower max possible efficiency:
      For example, more of the combustion is close enough to the cylinder wall to lose energy as heat, and as the piston goes down during the power stroke, the difference just lets bigger until it’s not even fun anymore.
      FYI, a 667kW per cylinder engine gets about 40% efficiency in ideal conditions, in its sweet spot and with good fuel (we adjust injection to density and other factors).

      True, but when do ideal conditions exists when driving a motor vehicle.  NEVER.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on December 30, 2018, 08:18:25 pm
      That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
      More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
      That's still much too optimistic.
      An ICE has 30-40%, but not an ICE in an ICE car.

      The average efficiency of an ICE in a car is 14% (gas) to 19%(Diesel).
      So yes, there are more than 80% losses, except in the few seconds of optimum load of the engine (when accelerating)
      it's a rolling heater, so yes, it has an advantage in the winter.
      And there is volumetric efficiency, all things being  equal, a smaller engine has lower max possible efficiency:
      For example, more of the combustion is close enough to the cylinder wall to lose energy as heat, and as the piston goes down during the power stroke, the difference just lets bigger until it’s not even fun anymore.
      FYI, a 667kW per cylinder engine gets about 40% efficiency in ideal conditions, in its sweet spot and with good fuel (we adjust injection to density and other factors).

      True, but when do ideal conditions exists when driving a motor vehicle.  NEVER.
      That’s my point, getting a 6MW generator to 40% is allready pushing thermodynamics (and combustion chemistry, the only methods to higher efficiency on these engines entail more NOX than legal) so forget about it on a small ICE engine with variable rpm and constantly varying loads...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: TheNewLab on December 30, 2018, 08:42:24 pm
      ah, getting back to the main topic..
      BMW now has an all-electric released in the US.
      there's a cult following of people who have converted Prius's into pickup truck..they call them Pruck's or Trius's
      An outfit in Illinois has taken over an old Mitsubishi plant and are producing their own brand of all-electric pickups.
      All US sold Prius's are sold as hybrid, except there is a face-plate cover over the hole where the "electric first" switch is in japan. (lower left of steering wheel). by simply adding back a switch, a little CAN-bus re-programming, and it becomes the same Prius sold in Japan and elsewhere. (power of the OIL lobby)

      California keeps getting more and more charging stations.

      I am still searching for an old VW Rabbit pickup, that I can convert to all electric. Granted It will be no monster heavy hauler,only the work I do, the equipment is big and bulky, but lightweight.
      So in a way, they are almost mainstream 8)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 30, 2018, 08:42:47 pm
      Easy. One litre of gas oil/diesel has 9.9 kWh (*), and a modern diesel car can easily do 100 km with 4 litres, that's ~40 kWh of energy. So the efficiency isn't too far away from 50%.

      (*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 30, 2018, 08:48:13 pm
      Also, the increase in energy consumption running the AC is identical EV or ICE, so in the context of the EV vs ICE argument, AC is a non-issue at all.
      6.4 kW is ~ 1/3 of the power needed to move the car, I wouldn't call it a non-issue, EVs (unlike ICEs) have an already poor range and this makes it even worse.
      As I keep pointing out, you are using absolutely worst case scenario numbers (again), and not real world number; nor are you considering the equivalent performance of an ICE car.

      Boffin, you know very well that the heat for the cabin heater of an ICE comes from the water of the radiator, it's heat that's dumped into the cabin that would otherwise be dumped outside, and therefore means exactly zero additional kilowatts, so why you keep trying to prove otherwise is beyond me. Please stop behaving like the typical EV fanboy, you can do better I'm sure.

      I said "AC" in the above statement, AIR CONDITIONING; not heating.  An AC compressor in an ICE car uses engine horsepower, which consumes hydrocarbons from tank.




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2018, 09:29:17 pm
      That’s my point, getting a 6MW generator to 40% is allready pushing thermodynamics (and combustion chemistry, the only methods to higher efficiency on these engines entail more NOX than legal) so forget about it on a small ICE engine with variable rpm and constantly varying loads...
      That also depends on what kind of ignition / injection / turbo charging / internal friction reduction technologies are used in the engine. Read about Ford's Ecoboost engines for example. They used some very clever engineering in there to push the boundaries of a commercial ICE engine further. AFAIK Ford invested somewhere around US$150 million into the development. Engines for generators don't see that kind of technological push forward because the market for these is much smaller.

      And development doesn't stop. F1 engines use even more clever fuel injection / ignition systems to reduce the fuel consumption.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 30, 2018, 10:58:18 pm
      That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
      More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
      That's still much too optimistic.
      An ICE has 30-40%, but not an ICE in an ICE car.

      The average efficiency of an ICE in a car is 14% (gas) to 19%(Diesel).
      So yes, there are more than 80% losses, except in the few seconds of optimum load of the engine (when accelerating)
      it's a rolling heater, so yes, it has an advantage in the winter.

      This thread has an amazing amount of mixing non-comparable numbers - on both sides of the aisle.

      14% efficiency number for ICE is IMHO, the efficiency through the drive train, and includes parasitic loads like power steering and alternator in addition to friction losses in the transmission, drag from the brakes and also friction losses in the tires.  The numbers in the 30-50% range are measuring engine only efficiency.  The manufacturers who throw these numbers around are often carefully ambiguous about things like this because the only reason for publishing such figures is marketing and for much of the audience bigger is gooder is the level of comprehension.

      Some of these losses are common to EV, some are intrinsically different and some are different because of different markets. 

      Transmission losses are generally lower in EV due to the need for fewer gears, but there is a large variation due to layout.  There is no real need for an alternator, so no comparable parasitic load in EV. 

      Things like brake and tire friction are in principal the same, but often yield an advantage for EV since these vehicles are generally smaller and lighter than the average ICE and are more heavily optimized for efficiency. 

      It takes a lot of effort to make an apples to apples comparison, and that effort is often clearly missing.  The 14% efficiency number would be meaningful in a range discussion if a few other conditions were met.  1.  The starting point for using the number was the total number of Joules available in the gas tank (from full to effective empty, even if that left a few liters in the tank).  2.  The comparison EV was somewhat similar in market aim (small sedan vs small sedan, or ultra compact vs ultra compact).  3.  A number for to the wheels efficiency for the EV were available.  I don't have such a number, but assume that it is in the 60-90% range, probably on the lower half of that range.  4.  The number of usable Joules in the battery were known.

      Numbers on both sides of this fence could be checked by comparing the known ranges of the vehicles with the calculated values.  There shouldn't be any large discrepancies.

      Without such comparable numbers all these figures have as much meaning as the meaningful range extension claimed by an apparently defunct planned maker of electric vehicles through some solar panels embedded in the roof of the passenger compartment.  The kindest thing you can say about such a claim is that an ignorant marketeer didn't know any better.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 30, 2018, 11:18:28 pm
      Things like brake and tire friction are in principal the same, but often yield an advantage for EV since these vehicles are generally smaller and lighter than the average ICE and are more heavily optimized for efficiency. 
      NO! Definitely wrong. EVs are heavier than comparable ICE cars due to the batteries. Just look up the data! For example an EV with a very small battery like the e-Golf is 400kg heavier than it's ICE counterpart (and I didn't choose the model with the smallest ICE engine to compare against). A Tesla model S with the biggest batteries fitted has a weigth of around 2200kg. A BMW 3 series sits around 1600kg. The weight of an EV is a clear disadvantage!

      If you look closely at the energy usage of the various Tesla's you'll see that the lighter models with less batteries have a lower energy consumption. The e-Golf has a relatively low energy consumption for an EV but at the cost of relatively small (and thus light) batteries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 31, 2018, 12:09:49 am
      This thread has an amazing amount of mixing non-comparable numbers - on both sides of the aisle.

      14% efficiency number for ICE is IMHO, the efficiency through the drive train, and includes parasitic loads like power steering and alternator in addition to friction losses in the transmission, drag from the brakes and also friction losses in the tires.

      [...]

      If the efficiency of an ICE were 14%, you'd need about 18[kWh/100km]/0.14= 128.5 kWh to do 100km, and that's ~ 13 litres of gasoil. My own 2 litres 1.8 tons diesel SUV can do 100km with only 5 litres and it's not a hybrid and has no KERS.

      0.14*13/5= 0.36 => 36% efficiency.

      Why do I choose 18 kWh/100km as a ballpark number? Because it's what you can do on average with a two tons Model S, driving slowly. But... a Model S has KERS, and my SUV doesn't.

      And there are other diesels better than mine.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 31, 2018, 12:28:38 am
      The EPA already did all the calculations, and the conventional ICE engine cars always lose, which should be no surprise, as their efficiency is quite low.

      Let's do the math. If the efficiency of an ICE were ~ 45%, and to move a car on average you need say 18 kWh/100km, it means an ICE dumps as heat 0.55*18/0.45 = 22 kWh/100km, even 1/3 of that is plenty enough to heat the cabin
      That's a little bit optimistic, considering that the fact that Toyota announced 40% efficiency for a new gasoline engine was big news (and that's the manufacturer claimed efficiency).
      More like 30%, or so, with any luck.
      Take a look at this. Quite an analysis they have done on the entire vehicle: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml (https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml)

      I think the point is that the very inefficiency of the ICE engine means that the wasted energy is available
      free, & using it to heat the car interior means that energy doesn't have to be found from the engine's mechanical output.
      Curious way of seeing it, as the efficiency is the energy employed for useful work vs the losses. That energy was already been stolen from the mechanical output because of the inefficiency to begin with.
      I wouldn't call it "free" either, as you pay for the gas burned to produce it. However, when you use part of the otherwise useless heat to heat the cabin, you recover some of that heat for an useful purpose. You lose a little less.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2018, 12:38:46 am
      The EPA already did all the calculations, and the conventional ICE engine cars always lose, which should be no surprise, as their efficiency is quite low.
      The big error in those calculations is that they don't include generation of the electricity. Electricity is a form of energy but not a energy source in itself. Fuel OTOH is a source of energy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 31, 2018, 01:20:13 am
      The EPA already did all the calculations, and the conventional ICE engine cars always lose, which should be no surprise, as their efficiency is quite low.
      The big error in those calculations is that they don't include generation of the electricity. Electricity is a form of energy but not a energy source in itself. Fuel OTOH is a source of energy.

      Not sure I understand what your point is.

      A fuel is any material that can be made to react with other substances so that it releases energy as heat energy or to be used for work.  Electric energy can be used to do work.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on December 31, 2018, 01:37:55 am
      The EPA already did all the calculations, and the conventional ICE engine cars always lose, which should be no surprise, as their efficiency is quite low.
      The big error in those calculations is that they don't include generation of the electricity. Electricity is a form of energy but not a energy source in itself. Fuel OTOH is a source of energy.

      Not sure I understand what your point is.

      A fuel is any material that can be made to react with other substances so that it releases energy as heat energy or to be used for work.  Electric energy can be used to do work.
      But electricity has to be generated from something.  Either wind/solar/coal/natural gas/geothermal.....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 31, 2018, 03:32:47 am
      .../nuclear/hydro.

      Things like brake and tire friction are in principal the same, but often yield an advantage for EV since these vehicles are generally smaller and lighter than the average ICE and are more heavily optimized for efficiency. 
      NO! Definitely wrong. EVs are heavier than comparable ICE cars due to the batteries. Just look up the data! For example an EV with a very small battery like the e-Golf is 400kg heavier than it's ICE counterpart (and I didn't choose the model with the smallest ICE engine to compare against). A Tesla model S with the biggest batteries fitted has a weigth of around 2200kg. A BMW 3 series sits around 1600kg. The weight of an EV is a clear disadvantage!

      If you look closely at the energy usage of the various Tesla's you'll see that the lighter models with less batteries have a lower energy consumption. The e-Golf has a relatively low energy consumption for an EV but at the cost of relatively small (and thus light) batteries.
      EVs can use regenerative braking, so the weight matters less.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on December 31, 2018, 03:45:29 am
      Didn't everyone agree that efficiency doesn't matter yesterday? It's things like the amount of air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, convenience (range), cost, etc that matters. When it comes to air-pollution and GhG emissions EVs are better. When it comes to range ICEs are better.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 31, 2018, 03:54:16 am
      The EPA already did all the calculations, and the conventional ICE engine cars always lose, which should be no surprise, as their efficiency is quite low.
      The big error in those calculations is that they don't include generation of the electricity. Electricity is a form of energy but not a energy source in itself. Fuel OTOH is a source of energy.

      Not sure I understand what your point is.

      A fuel is any material that can be made to react with other substances so that it releases energy as heat energy or to be used for work.  Electric energy can be used to do work.
      But electricity has to be generated from something.  Either wind/solar/coal/natural gas/geothermal.....

      And where do the energy contained in fossil fuels come from?  Solar, or mere precisely nuclear?  And if we go aback far enough isn’t all our energy from nuclear and the “The Big Bang”?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on December 31, 2018, 05:35:54 am
      The EPA already did all the calculations, and the conventional ICE engine cars always lose, which should be no surprise, as their efficiency is quite low.
      The big error in those calculations is that they don't include generation of the electricity. Electricity is a form of energy but not a energy source in itself. Fuel OTOH is a source of energy.

      Nor do your numbers include the energy of extraction/refining/distribution of hydrocarbons; but then you have never been about comparing like for like.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on December 31, 2018, 06:26:41 am
      Things like brake and tire friction are in principal the same, but often yield an advantage for EV since these vehicles are generally smaller and lighter than the average ICE and are more heavily optimized for efficiency. 
      NO! Definitely wrong. EVs are heavier than comparable ICE cars due to the batteries. Just look up the data! For example an EV with a very small battery like the e-Golf is 400kg heavier than it's ICE counterpart (and I didn't choose the model with the smallest ICE engine to compare against). A Tesla model S with the biggest batteries fitted has a weigth of around 2200kg. A BMW 3 series sits around 1600kg. The weight of an EV is a clear disadvantage!

      If you look closely at the energy usage of the various Tesla's you'll see that the lighter models with less batteries have a lower energy consumption. The e-Golf has a relatively low energy consumption for an EV but at the cost of relatively small (and thus light) batteries.

      Another illustration of the difficulty of getting like for like comparisons.  I was basing my comment on the more extensive use of lightweight materials (and omitting frills) that seems to be prevalent in EV. 

      But as another post says, energy is an interesting theoretical property, but isn't what leads people to decide EV over ICE or visa versa.  Things like range, performance, comfort, price and ecological considerations are what make people decide.  None of those factors is directly related to efficiency, and the connection is loose and sometimes counterintuitive for the ones that have any connection at all.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2018, 09:09:08 am
      The EPA already did all the calculations, and the conventional ICE engine cars always lose, which should be no surprise, as their efficiency is quite low.
      The big error in those calculations is that they don't include generation of the electricity. Electricity is a form of energy but not a energy source in itself. Fuel OTOH is a source of energy.
      Nor do your numbers include the energy of extraction/refining/distribution of hydrocarbons; but then you have never been about comparing like for like.
      Because that comparison is impossible to make. For example: You'd also have to factor in the CO2 emissions created during the building of the dam required to generate the electricity for your EV. However for mass produced items the price without taxes is a good indication. For mass production the energy (and thus CO2 emissions) it takes to make something (from ore to end product) will dominate the price.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on December 31, 2018, 09:45:10 am
      I read somewhere on the interwebs that if tomorrow all the cars in the world were BEVs, global CO2 emissions would only drop by ~ 4%, so not a very big impact on GhG emissions.

      The reasoning goes like this: cars (just normal cars, not including big trucks, buses, agricultural machines nor trains nor airplanes nor ships) consume only about 8% of total fossil fuels production (carbon+gas+oil), and the electricity production mix generates 50% as much CO2 per kWh as a car. 50% of 8% is 4%, so there you have it.

      My google fu failed me, and I haven't been able to check the validity of the "cars consume only about 8% of total fossil fuels production (carbon+gas+oil)" claim.

      The CO2 of the electricity mix claim sounds about right to me, but I doubt the electric system could cope with such an additional load as is without modification.

      I say this because if you think we're going to save the planet with the Teslas, forget it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2018, 12:50:44 pm
      I read somewhere on the interwebs that if tomorrow all the cars in the world were BEVs, global CO2 emissions would only drop by ~ 4%, so not a very big impact on GhG emissions.

      The reasoning goes like this: cars (just normal cars, not including big trucks, buses, agricultural machines nor trains nor airplanes nor ships) consume only about 8% of total fossil fuels production (carbon+gas+oil), and the electricity production mix generates 50% as much CO2 per kWh as a car. 50% of 8% is 4%, so there you have it.

      I say this because if you think we're going to save the planet with the Teslas, forget it.
      That is true. In the Netherlands -for example- transport causes only 12% of the CO2 emissions. The article Kjelt posted earlier shows where the problem is with the current approach to CO2 emissions. Governments try to avoid having to chase industry and jobs away so 100% of the burden of reducing of CO2 emissions falls down on the people where only a small amount of CO2 reduction can be achieved.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 31, 2018, 02:21:42 pm
      The EPA already did all the calculations, and the conventional ICE engine cars always lose, which should be no surprise, as their efficiency is quite low.
      The big error in those calculations is that they don't include generation of the electricity. Electricity is a form of energy but not a energy source in itself. Fuel OTOH is a source of energy.
      As others have said, they don't include the extraction, refining and distribution of gasoline, either. The energy source for gasoline is pure petroleum, which isn't easily accesible, nor cannot be used directly to power a car.
      The total lifecycle emissions of an electric car depend on how was the electricity generated. Governments should have encouraged green energy sources a lot of time ago. It's ridiculous that they don't move faster to green energy, as petroleum isn't going to last forever, and even if it did, the CO2 emissions are a very big problem, anyways.
      An electric vehicle with clean energy sources will have very low lifecycle CO2 emissions. An ICE car can't do that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2018, 04:55:47 pm
      An electric vehicle with clean energy sources will have very low lifecycle CO2 emissions. An ICE car can't do that.
      Wrong again. ICE cars can run fine on bio-fuel. FYI: in many western countries there is 5% (or more) bio fuel added to the fuel which is used. Bio-fuel is way ahead of EVs when it comes to CO2 reduction for transportation. And 3rd generation bio-fuel uses that parts of the plants we don't eat so don't go saying bio-fuel takes away food.

      Brazil (where 50% of the fuel used is bio-fuel) is a good example why bio-fuel makes more sense than EVs. EVs are an expensive solution only few are willing to pay for -if they can-. Bio-fuel OTOH allows a gradual changeover and it doesn't cost extra. Any modern petrol engine can run on pure ethanol. Some of the flexi-fuel models can do this from the factory others will need a software update (or a device which alters the fuel injection timing).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 31, 2018, 05:31:34 pm
      An electric vehicle with clean energy sources will have very low lifecycle CO2 emissions. An ICE car can't do that.
      Wrong again. ICE cars can run fine on bio-fuel. FYI: in many western countries there is 5% (or more) bio fuel added to the fuel which is used. Bio-fuel is way ahead of EVs when it comes to CO2 reduction for transportation. And 3rd generation bio-fuel uses that parts of the plants we don't eat so don't go saying bio-fuel takes away food.

      Brazil (where 50% of the fuel used is bio-fuel) is a good example why bio-fuel makes more sense than EVs. EVs are an expensive solution only few are willing to pay for -if they can-. Bio-fuel OTOH allows a gradual changeover and it doesn't cost extra. Any modern petrol engine can run on pure ethanol. Some of the flexi-fuel models can do this from the factory others will need a software update (or a device which alters the fuel injection timing).

      You are right aboustly right Brazil is an excellent example of how bio-fuels make sense.  And you are wrong aboutt EVs not make a lot of sense.  If Brazil’s bib-fuel program which has been around for 40 years is so wonderful now would expect it to be replicated in Europe, Russia, China, India, Australia, United States or at least one other country somewhere in the world.

      Any idea why that has not been done?

      Well I think you will find the first reason it will never work in Europe, Russia and the US is the cane doesn’t grow well there.  The second reason is even if the cane or some other croup could be grown for bio-fuels there isn’t enough land to grow the amount of bio-mass needed for the number of cars.  Have you done or even looked at the calculations for tha amount of land per gallon of bio-fuel?  Isn’t is something like 2 acres of land of bio-mass is needed per mile driven?  All of the land in California, Oregon, Washington, Airizona, and Nevada would be needed just to grow the bio-mass needed to power the cars in California.  Now the question becomes where are the people going to live?  And you’ll have another problem, where is the food people eat going to come from.  California feeds a large portion of the US with the food we grow here.

      Maybe ther’s a ereason it works in Brazil and won’t work elsewhere.  Instead of thinking locally, think globally.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2018, 05:36:06 pm
      Your questions are valid and here is the answer: Brazil has enough land to grow sugar cane without affecting the food supply for the people. In more densily populated areas more clever techniques are required and that is where the third generation bio-fuels come into play. 3rd generation bio-fuels are made from the parts of the plants which aren't food but just waste. The big advantage of 3rd generation bio-fuels is that they make food cheaper and don't need land specifically for creating bio-fuel. Based on the data at Poet-DSM's website I ran some numbers and you can get to near 100% fuel replacement when using efficient cars (say 100grams/CO2 per km) and just the agricultural leftovers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on December 31, 2018, 06:14:27 pm
      And you are wrong about EVs not make a lot of sense. 
      ...........
      All of the land in California, Oregon, Washington, Airizona, and Nevada would be needed just to grow the bio-mass needed to power the cars in California.
      Just curious how many nuclear plants are the US now building so everyone can drive an EV in two decades?
      Last I heard your country already has a lack of electricity in the summer when everyone uses their AC?
      How can you advocate EVs when there is nothing done to support it ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 31, 2018, 06:18:13 pm
      Your questions are valid and here is the answer: Brazil has enough land to grow sugar cane without affecting the food supply for the people. In more densily populated areas more clever techniques are required and that is where the third generation bio-fuels come into play. 3rd generation bio-fuels are made from the parts of the plants which aren't food but just waste. The big advantage of 3rd generation bio-fuels is that they make food cheaper and don't need land specifically for creating bio-fuel. Based on the data at Poet-DSM's website I ran some numbers and you can get to near 100% fuel replacement when using efficient cars (say 100grams/CO2 per km) and just the agricultural leftovers.

      Okay, so what I am missing.  The US Produces the most bio-fuel in the world, followed by China and Brazil.  So if here in the US we produce the most what do we do with it?  (And we don’t use sugar cane either as there are only a few states which have the climate and sioil for it.)  So what do we use it for?  And with China iproducing the second most what are they doing with it?  Brazil is in third, place, we know what they are doing with it.

      One reason it’s not so popular is that it’s more costly than fossil fuels.  Another reason is the fule needs to be hydrogenated to remove the oxoygen.  Where do we get hydrogen?  Fossil fuels.

      The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.

      As I said previously it might work for Brazil, but its not a solution for the US, China, Europe, Russia and just about everywhere else in the world.  For other parts of the wold EVs are the most promising.

      But ultimately isn’t the best source of energy for us going to be Next Gen Nuclear?  It’s been powering the sun and out universe for billions of years.  It is a proven technology and it’s renewable.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 31, 2018, 06:41:52 pm
      And you are wrong about EVs not make a lot of sense. 
      ...........
      All of the land in California, Oregon, Washington, Airizona, and Nevada would be needed just to grow the bio-mass needed to power the cars in California.
      Just curious how many nuclear plants are the US now building so everyone can drive an EV in two decades?
      Last I heard your country already has a lack of electricity in the summer when everyone uses their AC?
      How can you advocate EVs when there is nothing done to support it ?

      You are correct we are having power outages in the summer.  But it’s not only when folks have there AC on, but when renewables aren’t producing.  As when there is no wind or a cloud is over a solar farm.  Same issue England and Germany have had.  The only time we have prolonged power outages is when we have wild fires.

      You are right we don’t have this figured out.  Just like everywhere else in the world this is an experiment that’s taking place as we speak.  In 5 or 10 years from now we will know what worked and what didn’t.

      I live in California and own and drive an EV.  Only time I’ve had an issue is when I forgot to plug it in at night.  We havre the highest electricity rates in the US if not most of the world.  We are on a Time of Use billing.  So to recharge the batteries in my car it costs at the highest electrial rate a bit more than I would pay for a tankfull of gas.  But if I charge at the off-rate it’s about one forth the cost of a tankfull.

      I’ve had an EV for almost two years and can’t complain.  Biggest plus is I don’t have to go to the dealership to get an oil change and try and be sold a bunch or just or services I don’t need.  Saves a lot of money.

      My next car will be an EV as well.

      This next year I plan on installing solar panels.  Not to charge my car during the day, that would be stupid.  Instead I can sell that electricity to the power company at $0.50 during the day, and then buy it back when the rates are low, $0.11 to charge my car.

      The solar rip-pff companies are all telling me I need 30 solar panels to produce the number of kWhrs I use per year.  But what these idiots are not factoring in is the exchange rate between peak and off-peak which is about 4 to 1.  So instead of needed 30 panels I could easily get by with 15 if not 8 or 9 panels.

      While I see the value of solar panels as a short term fix, in the US the solar panel design and installation industry is for the most part a compete scam.  They are grossly over selling the number of panels needed and this includes Elon Musk and Tesla. 

      What we really need is to get next gen nuclear figured out.     

       

       


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2018, 06:49:02 pm
      The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.
      :palm: :palm: :palm: Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on December 31, 2018, 06:58:44 pm
      Well, biofuels are way easy to adopt than BEVs as they're basically the same gasoline cars with a modified engine, and also can use the same network of filling stations. If 3rd+ generation biofuels were adopted worldwide, that looks like good news, but i don't see anyone rushing to it.
      Still, from a pollution and energy use standpoint, BEVs look like the perfect city vehicle to me. But not really for long distances, at least without a distributed network of charging stations.
      And to me, Green energy production is a must, either with BEVs or without them.
      About nuclear energy, fission has some serious issues. The Sun uses fusion, however. That would do it, but sadly, is only in research, and seems to be a long way from commercial use.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 31, 2018, 07:15:47 pm
      The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.
      :palm: :palm: :palm: Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!

      But we.’ve run into issues we haven’t been able to solve with 3rd gen bio fuels.  While at one time they looked promising they aren’t at this time.  You have not addressed the issue of the amount of land needed for biofuels.  Where are we to grow food and live if all of the land is used to propduce bio-fuels?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 31, 2018, 07:22:21 pm
      Well, biofuels are way easy to adopt than BEVs as they're basically the same gasoline cars with a modified engine, and also can use the same network of filling stations. If 3rd+ generation biofuels were adopted worldwide, that looks like good news, but i don't see anyone rushing to it.
      Still, from a pollution and energy use standpoint, BEVs look like the perfect city vehicle to me. But not really for long distances, at least without a distributed network of charging stations.
      And to me, Green energy production is a must, either with BEVs or without them.
      About nuclear energy, fission has some serious issues. The Sun uses fusion, however. That would do it, but sadly, is only in research, and seems to be a long way from commercial use.

      It is years if not decases off before fusion will be ready for commercial use.  But isn’t that really the solution we are after?  There are over 100 private and government funded researchers working on fusion.  Unlike Thorium, we have not run into any issues which would prevent us from being successful. 

      But in the mean time we need to find a temporary solution.  Wind, solar, biofuels, are all short term fixes but will not sustain us.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on December 31, 2018, 07:22:52 pm
      This next year I plan on installing solar panels.  Not to charge my car during the day, that would be stupid.  Instead I can sell that electricity to the power company at $0.50 during the day, and then buy it back when the rates are low, $0.11 to charge my car.
      Smart as long as it lasts. We had the same here but the end of payback is in sight. The problem is that the energy distributors can not handle the oscillations on their net, if the sun shines full they have an overload and have to switch off or power down the generators, but if their are clouds ten minutes later they have to switch on.
      What they need is large batteryfarms to buffer this which is incredible expensive.

      Then here in the winter the return of solar is only about ten % of the summer time, California is probably way better :)

      Quote
      While I see the value of solar panels as a short term fix, in the US the solar panel design and installation industry is for the most part a compete scam.  They are grossly over selling the number of panels needed and this includes Elon Musk and Tesla. 
      What we really need is to get next gen nuclear figured out.   
      Agree fully.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2018, 07:23:01 pm
      Well, biofuels are way easy to adopt than BEVs as they're basically the same gasoline cars with a modified engine, and also can use the same network of filling stations. If 3rd+ generation biofuels were adopted worldwide, that looks like good news, but i don't see anyone rushing to it.
      Bio-fuels just aren't sexy like an EV but the world's largest and leading chemical companies have large investments in 3rd generation bio-fuels. Actually 3rd generation bio-fuels aren't new and the first experiments date back to WW2. Getting the process to work efficiently on a large scale and getting the logistics in place to collect the material from the farmers are the main challenges. The first factories are already running. The EU is also starting to ban bio-fuels which need too much land to grow specific plants (like palm oil). Anyway, bio-fuel use is increasing every year without most people even knowing about it.

      Another advantage of ethanol (bio-fuel replacement for gas/petrol) is that it burns cleaner so if you are worried about emissions then bio-fuel is also the answer.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2018, 07:25:52 pm
      The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.
      :palm: :palm: :palm: Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!
      But we.’ve run into issues we haven’t been able to solve with 3rd gen bio fuels.  While at one time they looked promising they aren’t at this time.  You have not addressed the issue of the amount of land needed for biofuels.  Where are we to grow food and live if all of the land is used to propduce bio-fuels?
      The plants for 3rd generation bio-fuels are up & running. No more problems to be solved. Just fine tuning and getting the cash to build more plants. Again: no extra land needed to make 3rd generation bio-fuels. Erase the thought of bio-fuels needing extra land out of your head. That is history.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 31, 2018, 07:41:46 pm
      This next year I plan on installing solar panels.  Not to charge my car during the day, that would be stupid.  Instead I can sell that electricity to the power company at $0.50 during the day, and then buy it back when the rates are low, $0.11 to charge my car.
      Smart as long as it lasts. We had the same here but the end of payback is in sight. The problem is that the energy distributors can not handle the oscillations on their net, if the sun shines full they have an overload and have to switch off or power down the generators, but if their are clouds ten minutes later they have to switch on.
      What they need is large batteryfarms to buffer this which is incredible expensive.

      Then here in the winter the return of solar is only about ten % of the summer time, California is probably way better :)

      Quote
      While I see the value of solar panels as a short term fix, in the US the solar panel design and installation industry is for the most part a compete scam.  They are grossly over selling the number of panels needed and this includes Elon Musk and Tesla. 
      What we really need is to get next gen nuclear figured out.   
      Agree fully.


      How is Germany pulling off solar?

      What makes solar appealing for us is Time of Use exchange rate with the power company.  Everyday we can sell electricity to the power company at and make a 200% to 400% return.  This is expected to go up to 500% next year.  Don't you wish you could find other investments which pay 500% everyday?




       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on December 31, 2018, 07:53:43 pm
      The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.
      :palm: :palm: :palm: Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!
      But we.’ve run into issues we haven’t been able to solve with 3rd gen bio fuels.  While at one time they looked promising they aren’t at this time.  You have not addressed the issue of the amount of land needed for biofuels.  Where are we to grow food and live if all of the land is used to propduce bio-fuels?
      The plants for 3rd generation bio-fuels are up & running. No more problems to be solved. Just fine tuning and getting the cash to build more plants. Again: no extra land needed to make 3rd generation bio-fuels. Erase the thought of bio-fuels needing extra land out of your head. That is history.

      Guess what you are saying is the experiment with 3rd generation bio-fuels is only been a mediocre success.  Here in the US we are the number one producers and it's not at our pumps even though we have the vehicle which can use it.   From what I have read China being the number 2 producer and they have not had much success either.  Brazil which is the number 3 in production is the only country which has had success. 

      Where you live, can you buy biofuels?

      Where I live I only know of one biofuel station and I've never seen anyone filling up at it.


      So why is it Brazil is the only place 3rd generation biofuels are working? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on December 31, 2018, 07:57:43 pm
      You keep mixing things up! Perhaps we should continue tomorrow when everyone is sober again.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Vinyasi on January 01, 2019, 12:03:35 am

      snip...

      And unlike Tesla’s 1931 Pierce Arrow which he claimed ran on energy from the universe (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Levitation_and_Infinite_Gain_from_a_Motor_Transformer.ogv).  One of these EV conversations companies is demonstrating it is possible to power cars from Energy from the universe.

      snip...


      EV's will become mainstream at about the same time that levitating EV's will become commonplace since the technology of a pulsed, surge-oriented, shorted motor (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ed_Gray%27s_Pulsed_Motor-Transformer_is_Tesla%27s_1931_Pierce-Arrow.ogg) supplies the same quantity of energy as is required by a UFO, namely: any amount you like! Levitating needs excessive amounts of energy (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Under_the_right_conditions_of_overunity,_a_surge_can_develop_out-of-control.jpg) dumped into a paramagnetic hull (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UFO_Power_Supply,_v2_-_schematic.jpg) with absolutely no iron in it at all to neutralize the weaker paramagnetism of aluminum.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 01, 2019, 12:05:03 am
      The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.
      :palm: :palm: :palm: Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!
      But we.’ve run into issues we haven’t been able to solve with 3rd gen bio fuels.  While at one time they looked promising they aren’t at this time.  You have not addressed the issue of the amount of land needed for biofuels.  Where are we to grow food and live if all of the land is used to propduce bio-fuels?
      The plants for 3rd generation bio-fuels are up & running. No more problems to be solved. Just fine tuning and getting the cash to build more plants. Again: no extra land needed to make 3rd generation bio-fuels. Erase the thought of bio-fuels needing extra land out of your head. That is history.
      Not sure what you are referring to when you say 3rd gen bio fuels, but from what I know there are very serious downsides to some types of bio fuels (palm oil based for example), while others are better (like ethanol). Bio fuels have their place if the world is going to stop using fossil fuels, but there is a limit to how much of that we can produce as well.

      Of course BEVs shouldn't be charged by coal; coal, gas and oil is the root problem. BEVs powered by fission, solar, hydro and wind is the future. It's all things that exists and works right now. While cars might only be responsible for a smaller part of the emissions (8% GhG?) it's still not insignificant and the world need cars, so BEV technology is necessary. As a bonus, air pollution is a huge health problem that BEVs also helps to solve (bio-fuels doesn't help in that regard).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 01:29:20 am
      The other problem with biofuels is farmers will clear-cut forest land to grow biomass for biofuels.  Using land once used for forest land and growing biofuel on actually causes more pollution.  So in the end your are actually doing more harm using bio-fuel than good.
      :palm: :palm: :palm: Is reading so hard? Really?? Read carefully what I wrote about 3rd generation bio-fuels! Again: no extra farm land is needed to make bio-fuel!
      But we.’ve run into issues we haven’t been able to solve with 3rd gen bio fuels.  While at one time they looked promising they aren’t at this time.  You have not addressed the issue of the amount of land needed for biofuels.  Where are we to grow food and live if all of the land is used to propduce bio-fuels?
      The plants for 3rd generation bio-fuels are up & running. No more problems to be solved. Just fine tuning and getting the cash to build more plants. Again: no extra land needed to make 3rd generation bio-fuels. Erase the thought of bio-fuels needing extra land out of your head. That is history.
      Not sure what you are referring to when you say 3rd gen bio fuels, but from what I know there are very serious downsides to some types of bio fuels (palm oil based for example), while others are better (like ethanol). Bio fuels have their place if the world is going to stop using fossil fuels, but there is a limit to how much of that we can produce as well.
      3rd generation bio-fuels uses leftover plant material we would otherwise let rot on the field. The earlier generation bio-fuels (like ethanol from sugar cane and palm oil) need extra land to grow. The EU is about to ban palm-oil for use as a bio-fuel. This will give companies incentives to produce more 3rd generation bio-fuels. The big advantage of 3rd generation bio-fuels is that we end up using more of the plants we grow for food (and leftovers from plants in general. Think about how many plants we grow from which we only eat the seeds or fruits. This is a major opportunity for farmers to stabilise their income. Also there is a crapload of excess plant material available wherever people grow food.

      I have explained this many times before and it amazes me how indoctrinated people are with 'bio-fuels = need more land = bad'.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 01, 2019, 01:33:14 am
      3rd generation bio-fuels use plant material we would otherwise let rot on the field. The earlier generation bio-fuels (like ethanol from sugar cane and palm oil) need extra land to grow. The EU is about to ban palm-oil for use as a bio-fuel. This will give companies incentives to produce more 3rd generation bio-fuels. The big advantage of 3rd generation bio-fuels is that we end up using more of the plants we grow for food. Think about how many plants we grow from which we only eat the seeds or fruits. I have explained this many times before and it amazes me how indoctrinated people are with 'bio-fuels = need more land = bad'.
      So, you use more of the plant, and it isn't available to fertilise the land to contribute to next year's crop. Now you need to use more industrialised fertiliser. Where does that come from? Oil!

      It is estimated that about half the nitrogen atoms in your body have been through the Haber process.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 01:36:35 am
      No. You can't leave all the leftovers on the field. A certain amount has to be removed anyway. Fertiliser will be needed anyway so that doesn't change whether you use the leftovers to make fuel from or not. There are no downsides to 3rd generation bio-fuels. Read the information on poet-dsm.com first before making any assumptions.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 01, 2019, 01:52:03 am
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 02:11:42 am
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 03:20:43 am
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      .

      Friend we have loooked and yes they are doing it, but they are not saying how successful our profitable it is from them.  Yes other companies are doing the same thing, but they are struggling with it and having issues. 

      You also appear to be mixing-up what the Dutch are doing and somehow implying it’s the same thing as what they are doing in Brazil.  At first you were talking about usain sugar cane and now you are talking about the bio-mass leftovers.  You do realize there is an enormous energy difference between the two.  Then by using the bio-mass leftovers you are not creating new soil and disrupting the ecological balance of the microorganisms in the soil.  Something that’s really bad.

      Sorry just not seeing the same optimistic results you or any of the companies you are talking about are seeing.  You say you have done the calculations, let’s see your calculations.  I have seen the calculcations others have made and they are no where near as optimistic as yours are.

      As Calrl Segan once said, extrodanary claims need require extrodanary evidense.  I’m not saying I don’t beleive you, it’s just you have not provided the extrodanary evidence.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 03:27:56 am
      Terrible news from the United States this New Year’s Eve.  Our president is about to relaxe the amount of mercury and other pollutants power plants can release into our environment.  Our president believes it is just too costly for the power companies to implement these evnvironmental controls.  The power companies not the other hand who have implemented these controls plan on turning them off to maximize profits.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 01, 2019, 04:02:41 am
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      How many liters/m^2 of bio fuel do they produce in a year?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on January 01, 2019, 05:44:04 am
      ...  At first you were talking about usain sugar cane and now you are talking about the bio-mass leftovers.  You do realize there is an enormous energy difference between the two.  Then by using the bio-mass leftovers you are not creating new soil and disrupting the ecological balance of the microorganisms in the soil.  Something that’s really bad.
      ...
      As Calrl Segan once said, extrodanary claims need require extrodanary evidense.  I’m not saying I don’t beleive you, it’s just you have not provided the extrodanary evidence.

      Ahh yes, the Dutch sugar cane fields, I remember it well.  Where is it that they stand in global sugar cane production?  Just behind Brasil ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: TheNewLab on January 01, 2019, 05:53:58 am
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      Duck Duck, Brasil and bio fuel , or sugar.
      There are some YTs that show how Brasil converts their huge sugar crop to bio fuel.
      The US tried this with corn. only the corn growers go so into it, that it pushed food prices up. non growing corn farmers began to also grow corn as a bio fuel and it pushed price up more..then it all crashed.

      I don't think the US will do bio fuels, so much as electric and hydrogen, if the later catches on.
      Despite what our fearless stupid leader is doing, relaxing EPA rules. California and other major US cities have gone directly to leaders of other nations and reported that despite the US government, their states are still fully committed to renewable energy. Again, California has just passed laws to require all public transit buses to either run on LNG or electricity. All state, city and county vehicles will soon have to, also.
      A major concern is electric charging stations. however these are springing up all over, and so with Oregon.

      The Hurriyet, a liberal daily paper in Turkey has announced successful talks with several California state senators where their nation and CA will be sharing technology and compliment each other in new and existing renewable technology.  A you good-we good benefits that will help both parties GDP wise. Turkey also is working on partnering up with the EU and China, with the guidance of CA connections.

      A big issue of wind and solar energy, is not being consistent output. undependable. The challenge is storing it..however, a number of inventors, (one a chemical engineer), have developed huge batteries that will last 40 years keeping full capacity. To build a great battery when you are thinking of sizes of buildings or small ones like shipping containers..It is not so difficult...
      Scotland has had a tide electrical generator for years. Apparently the tide under the Golden Gate Bridge is the most powerful tide in the world (please catch me if I am incorrect), however it is, it is strong, and the City of San Francisco has finally taken over some of the power generation from PG&E the regional energy provider
      I admit, i am kind of schizophrenic about this. One day I think, "hey! it is happening!" other days i think "the ruling elite in the US, are going to destroy our beautiful planet"  It is a battle for me everyday.

      But hey! writing about this on this thread encourages me to focus again on the real progress...!!!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: TheNewLab on January 01, 2019, 06:02:12 am
      ...  At first you were talking about using sugar cane and now you are talking about the bio-mass leftovers.  You do realize there is an enormous energy difference between the two.  Then by using the bio-mass leftovers you are not creating new soil and disrupting the ecological balance of the microorganisms in the soil.  Something that’s really bad.
      ...
      As Carl Sagan once said, extraordinary claims need require extraordinary evidence.  I’m not saying I don’t believe you, it’s just you have not provided the extraordinary evidence.

      Ahh yes, the Dutch sugar cane fields, I remember it well.  Where is it that they stand in global sugar cane production?  Just behind Brazil ?

      I don't know about the Dutch sugar output, however, Brazil has required dual energy vehicles for over a decade.  And I just learned an old classmate of mine. really into expensive stuff bought a new  Mercedes sedan couple of years ago, and she converted it to run on vegetable oil :palm:

      This is sooo not like her. in HS, she sported out her car and set it up with a nitrous injection. could beat out a stop light a block away. From a stop as her light turned green and the next light turned yellow
      I learned about that last fall...and I have been teasing her about it everyday since.... It IS really cool, though 8)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 01, 2019, 06:37:33 am
      Duck Duck, Brasil and bio fuel , or sugar.
      That's the traditional way of doing it I believe: sugar and yeast. Nctnico was talking about some new way of converting plant waste (i.e. mostly cellulose) into alcohol. There have been several proposed processes for how to do that, but there wasn't any successful operational factories that I knew of. The question is how efficient that poet-dsm process is, if it can produce enough fuel to replace gas and at what price.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 11:42:46 am
      Duck Duck, Brasil and bio fuel , or sugar.
      That's the traditional way of doing it I believe: sugar and yeast. Nctnico was talking about some new way of converting plant waste (i.e. mostly cellulose) into alcohol. There have been several proposed processes for how to do that, but there wasn't any successful operational factories that I knew of. The question is how efficient that poet-dsm process is, if it can produce enough fuel to replace gas and at what price.

      The guy posted he did the calculations for the poet-dam process.  He’s been asked to post his calculations as all of the calculations U have seen from others show for the number of cars in Europe and US there’s not enough land to make this work.

      One of the technical problems is the fuel is oxyngenated.  To Ben used as a fuel that oxygen needs to be removed.  The way the oxygen is removed is by adding Hydrogen.  Where does the Hydrogen come from?  Fossil fuels, specifically crude oil.

      Not sure what the definition of 3rd generation bio-fuels, but I thought it included the use of microorganisms to be genetically modified in order to produce liquid hydrocarbon fuel.  I know the oil companies were working on it as well as private industry.  They were successful in the lab on a small scale, but once they tried to scale it up the microorganisms no longer wanted to cooperate.  Not sure if this is the process the Dutch company is using.  But if it is they can do ion a small scale, but that’s it.  They haven’t figured our how to scale it up.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 11:49:01 am
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      How many liters/m^2 of bio fuel do they produce in a year?
      From this link: https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty) 20 to 25 million gallons. And I assume this is the goal for 2018 so we'll probably know how much they produced soon.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 11:52:43 am
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      .
      Friend we have loooked and yes they are doing it, but they are not saying how successful our profitable it is from them.  Yes other companies are doing the same thing, but they are struggling with it and having issues. 

      You also appear to be mixing-up what the Dutch are doing and somehow implying it’s the same thing as what they are doing in Brazil.  At first you were talking about usain sugar cane and now you are talking about the bio-mass leftovers.  You do realize there is an enormous energy difference between the two.  Then by using the bio-mass leftovers you are not creating new soil and disrupting the ecological balance of the microorganisms in the soil.  Something that’s really bad.
      No, you didn't look into it. Or it didn't sink in. Your comment is allover the place. It is like I told you to go straight ahead and you went left-right-left-left-right-right.

      All the information and data is right here on these websites.
      poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com)
      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      Read first (that is your homework) and then comment in a sensible way.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 01, 2019, 03:03:05 pm
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      .

      Friend we have loooked and yes they are doing it, but they are not saying how successful our profitable it is from them.  Yes other companies are doing the same thing, but they are struggling with it and having issues. 

      You also appear to be mixing-up what the Dutch are doing and somehow implying it’s the same thing as what they are doing in Brazil.  At first you were talking about usain sugar cane and now you are talking about the bio-mass leftovers.  You do realize there is an enormous energy difference between the two.  Then by using the bio-mass leftovers you are not creating new soil and disrupting the ecological balance of the microorganisms in the soil.  Something that’s really bad.

      Sorry just not seeing the same optimistic results you or any of the companies you are talking about are seeing.  You say you have done the calculations, let’s see your calculations.  I have seen the calculcations others have made and they are no where near as optimistic as yours are.

      As Calrl Segan once said, extrodanary claims need require extrodanary evidense.  I’m not saying I don’t beleive you, it’s just you have not provided the extrodanary evidence.
      Their entire site is marketing fluff, mostly marketing how wonderful they will be for the local economy. They don't even give optimistic results, just a few vague statements about having "solved" various issues since the plant started in 2014. They are specific about the amount of plant waste feedstock they will consume, and the number of litres of fuel it will produce, but what is important is what else (e.g. energy) goes into the process. They say nothing about this.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 03:20:08 pm
      Sure there is a lot of marketing fluff but there are also reports on the website on what research they did (the amount which can be harvested to keep enough nutrients on the field for example) and with which companies they partnered to make this a success. It takes some sifting but there is a lot of factual information to be found. For example: for power they use biomass (using the parts which are useless to turn into fuel) to power the plant. Either way this is a 300 million dollar project of which 2 thirds where invested by POET and DSM. This is not a few people with a few pressure cookers in a garage living some kind of pipe dream funded by a government hand-out and/or money from kickstarter.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 01, 2019, 03:57:52 pm
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      How many liters/m^2 of bio fuel do they produce in a year?
      From this link: https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty) 20 to 25 million gallons. And I assume this is the goal for 2018 so we'll probably know how much they produced soon.
      That doesn't answer the question. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 01, 2019, 04:03:52 pm
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      How many liters/m^2 of bio fuel do they produce in a year?
      From this link: https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty) 20 to 25 million gallons. And I assume this is the goal for 2018 so we'll probably know how much they produced soon.
      They provide very little hard information, but they do clearly say that 20 to 25 million gallons per year is NOT what they are producing now. 20 million appears to be the design goal, and 25 million is a figure they hope to stretch this to.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 04:24:24 pm
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      .
      Friend we have loooked and yes they are doing it, but they are not saying how successful our profitable it is from them.  Yes other companies are doing the same thing, but they are struggling with it and having issues. 

      You also appear to be mixing-up what the Dutch are doing and somehow implying it’s the same thing as what they are doing in Brazil.  At first you were talking about usain sugar cane and now you are talking about the bio-mass leftovers.  You do realize there is an enormous energy difference between the two.  Then by using the bio-mass leftovers you are not creating new soil and disrupting the ecological balance of the microorganisms in the soil.  Something that’s really bad.
      No, you didn't look into it. Or it didn't sink in. Your comment is allover the place. It is like I told you to go straight ahead and you went left-right-left-left-right-right.

      All the information and data is right here on these websites.
      poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com)
      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      Read first (that is your homework) and then comment in a sensible way.

      My friend I am listening to you and you are telling me to go straight to you conclusion woithout reading the documents or looking at you calculations.  Did you neven READ the text in the link you provided?

      The Dutch company isn’t the one converting corn stover to Ethabol, it’s the Americans.  It’s the Americans who have 27 Ethanol facilities.

      Dude, do I feel you have mislead us.  This is NOTHING like what they are doing in Brazil.  In Brazil they use sugar cane, this is corn stover.  You do know the difference between cane sugar plants and corn, don’t you?
      This is s Dutch company, but the work they are doing is in Iowa which is still part of the United States.  But maybe you think Iowa is oart of the Netherlands?

      And why are you calling this third generation?  It’s not.  They clearly state a pilot, and they are even calling it Project Liberty.  This is just a scale-up feasabilkitly phase.  How can you call this 3rd generation.

      But read the document.  Maybe English is not your first language.  But the way I read this is the Dutch company IS NOT the one converting the corn stover to Ethanol, that’s the Americans.  What the Dutch are doing is creating an EZ Bale system.

      “POET-DSM developed its innovative EZ Bale system.”

      “To make it easier for farmers in the surrounding area to collect EZ Bales, POET-DSM has worked with more than a dozen manufacturers of harvest equipment...”
      “Local farmers are now under contract to deliver the EZ Bales, which also help them manage their crop residue and decrease tillage.”

      By any chance are you a politician?  If not, you should be.  You have a wonderful way of telling people something that’s far from the truth and expect them to beleive it.  On the other hand maybe you are a priest?



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 04:28:14 pm
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).
      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      How many liters/m^2 of bio fuel do they produce in a year?
      From this link: https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty) 20 to 25 million gallons. And I assume this is the goal for 2018 so we'll probably know how much they produced soon.
      That doesn't answer the question.
      Oh, I didn't see you wanted to know per surface area. This images says it all:
      (http://poet-dsm.com/resources/images/infographic-acre.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 04:46:38 pm
      nctnico in the United States we had a “salesmen” who came up with he following line for customers looking at his product...  “There’s a sucker born every minute.” 

      You are reading this marketing crud and not realizing The document is filled with marketing words, and not engineering/scientific terms.  When a document uses phrases such as, “can provide” or “may produce” they all sound positive. But at the same time the words “might not” could be substituted.

      This is like Elon Musk saying his EV semi-trucks can travel a distance of up to 800 miles before needing to be recharged.  Someone looked you would look at that and say that’s wonderful.  Let’s replace all of the semi-trucks with Elon’s BEV trucks it will save the world.  An engineer would look at Elon’s statement and realize how stupid it is.  Using the laws of physics (which do not ply when religion and marketing is involved) one quickly realizes the truck could travel that far but only if all of the cargo space is filled with batteries.  I don’t know of many trucking companies who would purchase one of Elon’s truck and ave a driver drive 800 miles to deliver a cargo of discharged batteres.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 05:00:56 pm
      Anyone else reading nctnico’s documents and realize the Dutch company is NOT the one converting cane sugar or corn into ethanol?  All they are doing is working on an EZ bale system for sorting and collecting collecting corn stover.

      In the document nctnico provided it’s clearly stated what the Dutch company is doing to maximizing bio-refinery production with EZ Bales. 

      Does anyone see anything that says the Dutch compouny is even in the business for converting bio-mass into bio-fuel?  If so, I can’t find it.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 05:03:23 pm
      nctnico in the United States we had a “salesmen” who came up with he following line for customers looking at his product...  “There’s a sucker born every minute.” 

      You are reading this marketing crud and not realizing The document is filled with marketing words, and not engineering/scientific terms.  When a document uses phrases such as, “can provide” or “may produce” they all sound positive. But at the same time the words “might not” could be substituted.
      That may be but POET's and DSM's shareholders will be utterly dissapointed if they don't pull it off after investing 200 million dollars. The losses should have been cut sooner. All in all it looks to me like the process is working. We'll just have to wait until there is some news about how much they managed to produce in 2018 and where they are going in 2019.

      My Google-fu is excellent. Just Google DSM and biofuels.
      https://www.dsm.com/corporate/about/business-entities/dsm-biobased-productsandservices.html (https://www.dsm.com/corporate/about/business-entities/dsm-biobased-productsandservices.html)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 05:21:55 pm
      nctnico in the United States we had a “salesmen” who came up with he following line for customers looking at his product...  “There’s a sucker born every minute.” 

      You are reading this marketing crud and not realizing The document is filled with marketing words, and not engineering/scientific terms.  When a document uses phrases such as, “can provide” or “may produce” they all sound positive. But at the same time the words “might not” could be substituted.
      That may be but POET's and DSM's shareholders will be utterly dissapointed if they don't pull it off after investing 200 million dollars. The losses should have been cut sooner. All in all it looks to me like the process is working. We'll just have to wait until there is some news about how much they managed to produce in 2018 and where they are going in 2019.

      My Google-fu is excellent. Just Google DSM and biofuels.
      https://www.dsm.com/corporate/about/business-entities/dsm-biobased-productsandservices.html (https://www.dsm.com/corporate/about/business-entities/dsm-biobased-productsandservices.html)

      My friend I have Googled and found what you are telling us in your posts does not match what experts are saying.  For some reason you are fixated on the marketing hype.

      You do realize this is an unproven technology,  Just read what’s being said in the document you posted.
      This is clearly an experiment and they are looking for “partnes” to try it out on.

      “DSM Bio-based Products & Services pioneers advances in biomass conversion and seeks to demonstrate the commercial viability of sustainable, renewable technologies in collaboration with strategic partners “

      And if you continue reading in the document what they clearly say is they want to LICENSE the technology.

      And again correct me if I’m wrong, but the Dutch company is NOT in the business of converting bio-mass to bio-fuels.  What they are “selling” is there EX Bale system for collecting and sorting core stover.

      This is NOT what you have been telling us.   Very disappointing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 01, 2019, 05:37:16 pm
      We'll just have to wait until there is some news about how much they managed to produce in 2018 and where they are going in 2019.
      The same could be said about several storage solutions, there is a lot of hype about flow batteries for example.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 05:38:56 pm
      People, I can't help it you can't read but POET-DSM has a factory up & running. Where is the misunderstanding?

      We'll just have to wait until there is some news about how much they managed to produce in 2018 and where they are going in 2019.
      The same could be said about several storage solutions, there is a lot of hype about flow batteries for example.
      Now you make it sound as if they are not producing anything. The factory is running but no news yet on how much they produced exactly in 2018. 2019 is just one day old so give them some time to put a press release together.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 01, 2019, 05:43:45 pm
      There are also commercially available flow batteries being tried now, we'll just have to wait until there is some news about their performance.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 05:47:10 pm
      There are also commercially available flow batteries being tried now, we'll just have to wait until there is some news about their performance.
      POET-DSM seems to be near the target performance almost two years ago:
      https://www.dsm.com/corporate/media/informationcenter-news/2017/02/2017-02-16-poet-dsm-plans-on-site-enzyme-manufacturing-facility-at-project-liberty.html (https://www.dsm.com/corporate/media/informationcenter-news/2017/02/2017-02-16-poet-dsm-plans-on-site-enzyme-manufacturing-facility-at-project-liberty.html)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 01, 2019, 06:08:24 pm
      Anyone else reading nctnico’s documents and realize the Dutch company is NOT the one converting cane sugar or corn into ethanol?  All they are doing is working on an EZ bale system for sorting and collecting collecting corn stover.

      In the document nctnico provided it’s clearly stated what the Dutch company is doing to maximizing bio-refinery production with EZ Bales. 

      Does anyone see anything that says the Dutch compouny is even in the business for converting bio-mass into bio-fuel?  If so, I can’t find it.
      This paragraph seems to indicate that they use distillation to produce ethanol from corn stover, but english isn't my main language either:

      Quote
      Once the collected corn stover arrives at Project LIBERTY, it is weighed, documented, and stored in the stack yard or brought directly to the Biomass Building for immediate processing. The corn stover begins processing by undergoing a series of physical and passive pretreatment processes that start to break down its rigid cell walls so that the basic sugar components can be extracted and fermented. The resulting product is then distilled into 200-proof ethanol, denatured, and shipped to refiners for blending with gasoline. The portion of the corn stover (primarily lignin) that cannot be converted to biofuel is used to generate the thermal power needed by Project LIBERTY—and much of that power required by the adjacent corn ethanol plant.

      Project LIBERTY was strategically situated right next to POET’s existing first-generation corn ethanol plant in Emmetsburg to share energy, land, rail spurs/roadways, storage, feedstock supply network, and personnel. Once this novel production technology is fine-tuned, POET intends to adopt it in at the other 27 corn ethanol plants it operates in North America. The integrated technology package is also being licensed for use around the globe.
      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)

      But yes, basically seems to be a prototype facility on US soil.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 06:08:33 pm
      There are also commercially available flow batteries being tried now, we'll just have to wait until there is some news about their performance.
      POET-DSM seems to be near the target performance almost two years ago:
      https://www.dsm.com/corporate/media/informationcenter-news/2017/02/2017-02-16-poet-dsm-plans-on-site-enzyme-manufacturing-facility-at-project-liberty.html (https://www.dsm.com/corporate/media/informationcenter-news/2017/02/2017-02-16-poet-dsm-plans-on-site-enzyme-manufacturing-facility-at-project-liberty.html)


      Yes but all they did was create something they call EZ Bale to increase production.  The are NOT the ones converting corn stover into bio-fuels.  You are citing production values of the American companies who are using the Dutch EZ Bale.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 06:24:23 pm
      Anyone else reading nctnico’s documents and realize the Dutch company is NOT the one converting cane sugar or corn into ethanol?  All they are doing is working on an EZ bale system for sorting and collecting collecting corn stover.

      In the document nctnico provided it’s clearly stated what the Dutch company is doing to maximizing bio-refinery production with EZ Bales. 

      Does anyone see anything that says the Dutch compouny is even in the business for converting bio-mass into bio-fuel?  If so, I can’t find it.
      This paragraph seems to indicate that they use distillation to produce ethanol from corn stover, but english isn't my main language either:

      Quote
      Once the collected corn stover arrives at Project LIBERTY, it is weighed, documented, and stored in the stack yard or brought directly to the Biomass Building for immediate processing. The corn stover begins processing by undergoing a series of physical and passive pretreatment processes that start to break down its rigid cell walls so that the basic sugar components can be extracted and fermented. The resulting product is then distilled into 200-proof ethanol, denatured, and shipped to refiners for blending with gasoline. The portion of the corn stover (primarily lignin) that cannot be converted to biofuel is used to generate the thermal power needed by Project LIBERTY—and much of that power required by the adjacent corn ethanol plant.

      Project LIBERTY was strategically situated right next to POET’s existing first-generation corn ethanol plant in Emmetsburg to share energy, land, rail spurs/roadways, storage, feedstock supply network, and personnel. Once this novel production technology is fine-tuned, POET intends to adopt it in at the other 27 corn ethanol plants it operates in North America. The integrated technology package is also being licensed for use around the globe.
      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)

      Isn’t POET American, not Dutch?  Read the part about EZ Bale and the licensing of EZ Bale.  That’s wer the Dutch company is involved.

      There’s a huge problem in what POET-DSM is doing whcih has not been discussed.  The corn stover which the original poster said could be covertned to bio-fule did say it already has a use, feeding cows.  What he convienetnly left out if his argument is in the stover is converted to bio-fuels what are the cows going to be fed?  What he called waste, is actually very economical cow and other livestock food.

      So with this fantastic technology we CN save the planet with bio-fuels while we starve ourselves to death.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 06:26:04 pm
      There are also commercially available flow batteries being tried now, we'll just have to wait until there is some news about their performance.
      POET-DSM seems to be near the target performance almost two years ago:
      https://www.dsm.com/corporate/media/informationcenter-news/2017/02/2017-02-16-poet-dsm-plans-on-site-enzyme-manufacturing-facility-at-project-liberty.html (https://www.dsm.com/corporate/media/informationcenter-news/2017/02/2017-02-16-poet-dsm-plans-on-site-enzyme-manufacturing-facility-at-project-liberty.html)
      Yes but all they did was create something they call EZ Bale to increase production.  The are NOT the ones converting corn stover into bio-fuels.  You are citing production values of the American companies who are using the Dutch EZ Bale.
      No. DSM is a world leading chemical company with a bio-chemistry department which has a department specialising in yeasts and enzymes. The latter are critical ingredients for making 3rd generation bio-fuel work. The EZ Bale is part of the logistics to get enough feedstock through the factory. In order to reach production volumes a lot of feedstock needs to be processed. Because the EZ Bale is likely a key component of keeping the manufacturing process up to speed it (ofcourse) has been patented so other manufacturers will need to pay royalties or at least the competition will need to come up with something different.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 06:53:25 pm
      There are also commercially available flow batteries being tried now, we'll just have to wait until there is some news about their performance.
      POET-DSM seems to be near the target performance almost two years ago:
      https://www.dsm.com/corporate/media/informationcenter-news/2017/02/2017-02-16-poet-dsm-plans-on-site-enzyme-manufacturing-facility-at-project-liberty.html (https://www.dsm.com/corporate/media/informationcenter-news/2017/02/2017-02-16-poet-dsm-plans-on-site-enzyme-manufacturing-facility-at-project-liberty.html)
      Yes but all they did was create something they call EZ Bale to increase production.  The are NOT the ones converting corn stover into bio-fuels.  You are citing production values of the American companies who are using the Dutch EZ Bale.
      No. DSM is a world leading chemical company with a bio-chemistry department which has a department specialising in yeasts and enzymes. The latter are critical ingredients for making 3rd generation bio-fuel work. The EZ Bale is part of the logistics to get enough feedstock through the factory. In order to reach production volumes a lot of feedstock needs to be processed. Because the EZ Bale is likely a key component of keeping the manufacturing process up to speed it (ofcourse) has been patented so other manufacturers will need to pay royalties or at least the competition will need to come up with something different.

      You think America doen’t have any chemical companies which specialize in yeast and enzymes?  Ever here of ADM or Monsanto?  Why did the Dutch come to America and not use the technology in their own country?

      You need to re-read the documents you’ve posted about EZ Bale.  It has NOTHING to do with the speed of manufacturing.  It’s all about sorting and the sorting of the corn stover to increase yields.  The have graphs and charts showing how EZ Bale can (might) increase yields.

      You need to read a bit more about Project Liberty.  What you are sharing with us is the positive marketing material on how bio-fules will save the world?  Appears you have a strong appetite for marketing silage.  Try looking at this with a clear head.

       
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 01, 2019, 07:07:39 pm
      Who cares if it is american or dutch? In sweden they have a pilot plant to convert cellulose from the forest industry, but there is no indication that it's working yet. Question is if they can make it work. It's the same with storage solutions, there are lots of hyped products that claim they can solve the worlds problems. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, as they say.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on January 01, 2019, 07:15:28 pm
      Oh and also take into account that every kWh from your solar panels releases several tens of grams of CO2 into the atmosphere due to the manufacturing process.

      but. to manufacture the panel they used a FIXED amount of Co2. So the longer i have the panel the smaller the amount of co2 per kw i pull out of it.

      same with the car. the longer i drive it the smaller that fraction becomes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on January 01, 2019, 07:22:33 pm
      The EPA already did all the calculations, and the conventional ICE engine cars always lose, which should be no surprise, as their efficiency is quite low.
      The big error in those calculations is that they don't include generation of the electricity. Electricity is a form of energy but not a energy source in itself. Fuel OTOH is a source of energy.
      Nor do your numbers include the energy of extraction/refining/distribution of hydrocarbons; but then you have never been about comparing like for like.
      Because that comparison is impossible to make. For example: You'd also have to factor in the CO2 emissions created during the building of the dam required to generate the electricity for your EV. However for mass produced items the price without taxes is a good indication. For mass production the energy (and thus CO2 emissions) it takes to make something (from ore to end product) will dominate the price.
      lets also add the cost of drilling for oil ,refining it , the energy used for that. and the cost to nature in form of oil spills.

      in other words : how many barrels of oil are needed to refine one barrel of oil ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 09:01:01 pm
      The EPA already did all the calculations, and the conventional ICE engine cars always lose, which should be no surprise, as their efficiency is quite low.
      The big error in those calculations is that they don't include generation of the electricity. Electricity is a form of energy but not a energy source in itself. Fuel OTOH is a source of energy.
      Nor do your numbers include the energy of extraction/refining/distribution of hydrocarbons; but then you have never been about comparing like for like.
      Because that comparison is impossible to make. For example: You'd also have to factor in the CO2 emissions created during the building of the dam required to generate the electricity for your EV. However for mass produced items the price without taxes is a good indication. For mass production the energy (and thus CO2 emissions) it takes to make something (from ore to end product) will dominate the price.
      lets also add the cost of drilling for oil ,refining it , the energy used for that. and the cost to nature in form of oil spills.

      in other words : how many barrels of oil are needed to refine one barrel of oil ?

      You are asking a trick question...  THe answer is 0.   If it took more energy to drill, transport and refine crude oil we would not be doing it. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 01, 2019, 09:14:33 pm
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).


      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      How many liters/m^2 of bio fuel do they produce in a year?
      From this link: https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty) 20 to 25 million gallons. And I assume this is the goal for 2018 so we'll probably know how much they produced soon.
      That doesn't answer the question.
      Oh, I didn't see you wanted to know per surface area. This images says it all:
      (http://poet-dsm.com/resources/images/infographic-acre.jpg)
      Very good.  Thanks
      Assume 80 gal/acre
      I drive 12,000 mi/year
      Assume 25 mi/gallon
      So that's 480 gal/year
      So I need 6 acres of corn land.

      I checked US Energy Information Admin for fuel consumption in the US
      https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10 (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10)
      Quote from the web site
      "How much gasoline does the United States consume?
      In 2017, about 142.98 billion gallons (or about 3.40 billion barrels1) of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, a daily average of about 391.71 million gallons (or about 9.33 million barrels per day)."

      So that is 1.8E9 acres of corn to produce this fuel based on 80 gal/acre. 

      Now Wikepedia tells me that there are 9.6E7 acres of corn in production in the USA. 

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_production_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_production_in_the_United_States)

      So the 96 million acres could produce 0.7% of the fuel for the us. 

      That does not include aircraft or ships. 









      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kilrah on January 01, 2019, 09:20:15 pm
      It certainly takes more than 0, but not enough to detract from doing it anyway.

      Refining seems to take about 2.5% of the inital crude oil's energy, numbers derived from what is referred to as a "large refinery" and are obviously better than a smaller one.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 09:25:04 pm
      Using corn residu is just the start. Look at how much land is used for agriculture in the US in total. Besides that the fuel consumption of cars in the US is quite high on average. A 50% reduction in fuel consumption is easely achievable if necessary. With reduction of fuel consumption and being able to use all agricultural leftovers you can get pretty close to covering all fuel requirements using bio-fuel. But even 50% would be a big win.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 09:44:55 pm
      Using corn residu is just the start. Look at how much land is used for agriculture in the US in total. Besides that the fuel consumption of cars in the US is quite high on average. A 50% reduction in fuel consumption is easely achievable if necessary. With reduction of fuel consumption and being able to use all agricultural leftovers you can get pretty close to covering all fuel requirements using bio-fuel. But even 50% would be a big win.

      Dude if think Americans will drive less and conserve even 10% you are nuts or crazy!
      If you read your EZ Bale document you will find they bales have to 45 miles away or less.  I take it up you have no clue how large the agricultural region is in the US. 

      And even if we did what you think is a good idea it will provide just over 1% of the fuel needed in the use and leave us with no food.

      You proposed solution, isn”t a solution at all.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 09:53:57 pm
      nctnico
      Biofuels are made from palm oil. Here’s what farmers are doing to produce the palm oil.   
      If anything I would think you would want to STOP the production of bio-fuels from palm oil.


      Take a look
      https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1080209635196452864?s=20

      And

      https://youtu.be/LSumTLrJzdU
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 01, 2019, 10:10:40 pm
      nctnico
      Biofuels are made from palm oil. Here’s what farmers are doing to produce the palm oil.   
      If anything I would think you would want to STOP the production of bio-fuels from palm oil.
      I agree and I never stated 1st and 2nd generation bio-fuels from palm oil are good! Actually the EU is about to ban palm-oil as a bio fuel which is a good thing. It will kick 3rd generation bio-fuels into gear.

      And once more: 3rd generation bio fuels co-exist with food production. It may even save you. When fertilizer made from oil becomes very expensive the 3rd generation bio-fuels help to pay for the fertilizer so your food prices don't go through the roof!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on January 01, 2019, 10:12:48 pm
      The palm oil ban is just symbolism, they'll just use some other crop.

      X-generation biofuel seem to me mostly propaganda, spend a couple million to do some research and 10x more on lobbyists to shovel that fact ... all just to pretend biofuels can some day be not a complete clusterfuck so the billions of subsidies keep rolling in. It plays to the neoliberal fallacy that only the market can do this. If we want X-generation biofuel, just spend public money directly on the research. No subsidies.

      Public private partnerships only work in extremely ethical extremely cohesive societies ... not the fucking EU.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 01, 2019, 10:18:12 pm
      The palm oil ban is just symbolism, they'll just use some other crop.

      X-generation biofuel seem to me mostly propaganda, spend a couple million to do some research and 10x more on lobbyists to shovel that fact ... all just to pretend biofuels can some day be not a complete clusterfuck so the billions of subsidies keep rolling in.

      It plays to the neoliberal fallacy that only the market can do this. If we want X-generation biofuel, just spend public money on the research. No subsidies.

      Exactly! 

      And we have seen a huge setback in biofuels made from microorganisms.  For reasons we don’t understand the microorganisms will produce small quantities of biofuel, but when we try and scale up they refuse.

      Much better to invest time, money and researchers on next gen nuclear,  with next gen nuclear biofuels will just be one of those things we tried and failed at.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on January 01, 2019, 11:31:57 pm
      Bio-fuel is a very hard problem regardless of what you grow ... because compared to soil and fresh water, any other medium to grow anything on is orders of magnitude worse.

      Bioreactors have massive material requirements. Open pools in the desert need to get lots of fresh water for it from somewhere (can't use salt water, because eventually you'd have a 100% saturated brine and even the hardiest organisms won't grow in that). Open pools on land where there is plenty of fresh water, might as well skip the pool and use the land. Ocean have lousy nutrient density and no way to contain any fertilizer.

      If you have a 250 micrometer flexible solar cell which costs next to nothing you can throw it in the desert and have some robot occasionally brush the sand off it ... with biofuel it doesn't work that way.

      PS. crop waste is nice and all, but it would provide only a tiny contribution ... let the market figure out if it can make that profitable, not worth spending public money on.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 02, 2019, 12:28:27 am
      Bio-fuel is a very hard problem regardless of what you grow ... because compared to soil and fresh water, any other medium to grow anything on is orders of magnitude worse.

      Bioreactors have massive material requirements. Open pools in the desert need to get lots of fresh water for it from somewhere (can't use salt water, because eventually you'd have a 100% saturated brine and even the hardiest organisms won't grow in that). Open pools on land where there is plenty of fresh water, might as well skip the pool and use the land. Ocean have lousy nutrient density and no way to contain any fertilizer.

      If you have a 250 micrometer flexible solar cell which costs next to nothing you can throw it in the desert and have some robot occasionally brush the sand off it ... with biofuel it doesn't work that way.

      PS. crop waste is nice and all, but it would provide only a tiny contribution ... let the market figure out if it can make that profitable, not worth spending public money on.

      Original poster was saying bio-fuels is working well in Brazil, which it is.  Then he went on to say a Dutch company is working on it as well.  Didn't sound like it would because sugar cane which is what's being used in Brazil would not grow in most of Europe.  Original poster kept insisting it's working.  Then when we looked at what the Dutch company is doing has to do with corn and not in Europe but in the United States.  Then the Dutch company isn't even doing bio-fuels. what they are doing is something called EZ Bail which sorts the corn stover to get higher yields as the American companies create bio-fuels from the stover.  The original poster stated he did the calculations and stated it could be used to fuel our cars.  But he never provided the calcualtions.  A responeder did offer the calcuations and bio-fuels might be able to supply Europe and the United States with just under 1% per year.  Then the original poster though we all conservered we would reduce usage by 50%.  To that the only responce would be fat chanace. 



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on January 02, 2019, 01:41:08 am
      It works in Brazil because they have a massive amount of rainforest to convert into farmland. Here in Europe we just use sunflower oil, the bio-diesel is obviously not competitive with fossil fuel. The point of not promoting more destruction of nature is to use some "dead" resource though, so deserts or oceans ... and that's just not going to work AFAICS. I think it's likely we'll be able to fill large parts of a desert with PV, but not with bioreactors. Growing stuff in the ocean has too little yield.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 02, 2019, 02:11:44 am
      Here in Europe we just use sunflower oil, the bio-diesel is obviously not competitive with fossil fuel.
      Sunflower oil is expensive, but the cheapest vegetable cooking oil costs less than diesel in most European countries. When oil prices peaked some time ago cooking oil cost less than heating oil, which usually carries less taxation than diesel. Cooking oil will burn just fine to heat homes. It will power most diesel cars without modification, although the engine needs some tweaking to optimise its performance with cooking oil.

      I am not suggesting we could power our economy with cooking oil. We couldn't scale up production to the point where that would work. However, I do find the low relative cost of something that takes considerable agriculture and processing to produce as a primary crop quite interesting.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 02, 2019, 07:44:04 am
      Bio-fuel is a very hard problem regardless of what you grow ... because compared to soil and fresh water, any other medium to grow anything on is orders of magnitude worse.

      Bioreactors have massive material requirements. Open pools in the desert need to get lots of fresh water for it from somewhere (can't use salt water, because eventually you'd have a 100% saturated brine and even the hardiest organisms won't grow in that). Open pools on land where there is plenty of fresh water, might as well skip the pool and use the land. Ocean have lousy nutrient density and no way to contain any fertilizer.

      If you have a 250 micrometer flexible solar cell which costs next to nothing you can throw it in the desert and have some robot occasionally brush the sand off it ... with biofuel it doesn't work that way.

      PS. crop waste is nice and all, but it would provide only a tiny contribution ... let the market figure out if it can make that profitable, not worth spending public money on.

      Original poster was saying bio-fuels is working well in Brazil, which it is.  Then he went on to say a Dutch company is working on it as well.  Didn't sound like it would because sugar cane which is what's being used in Brazil would not grow in most of Europe.  Original poster kept insisting it's working.  Then when we looked at what the Dutch company is doing has to do with corn and not in Europe but in the United States.  Then the Dutch company isn't even doing bio-fuels. what they are doing is something called EZ Bail which sorts the corn stover to get higher yields as the American companies create bio-fuels from the stover.  The original poster stated he did the calculations and stated it could be used to fuel our cars.  But he never provided the calcualtions.  A responeder did offer the calcuations and bio-fuels might be able to supply Europe and the United States with just under 1% per year.  Then the original poster though we all conservered we would reduce usage by 50%.  To that the only responce would be fat chanace. 
      You really don't understand what you read  :palm: The above is all wrong!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 02, 2019, 11:48:33 am
      Bio-fuel is a very hard problem regardless of what you grow ... because compared to soil and fresh water, any other medium to grow anything on is orders of magnitude worse.

      Bioreactors have massive material requirements. Open pools in the desert need to get lots of fresh water for it from somewhere (can't use salt water, because eventually you'd have a 100% saturated brine and even the hardiest organisms won't grow in that). Open pools on land where there is plenty of fresh water, might as well skip the pool and use the land. Ocean have lousy nutrient density and no way to contain any fertilizer.

      If you have a 250 micrometer flexible solar cell which costs next to nothing you can throw it in the desert and have some robot occasionally brush the sand off it ... with biofuel it doesn't work that way.

      PS. crop waste is nice and all, but it would provide only a tiny contribution ... let the market figure out if it can make that profitable, not worth spending public money on.

      Original poster was saying bio-fuels is working well in Brazil, which it is.  Then he went on to say a Dutch company is working on it as well.  Didn't sound like it would because sugar cane which is what's being used in Brazil would not grow in most of Europe.  Original poster kept insisting it's working.  Then when we looked at what the Dutch company is doing has to do with corn and not in Europe but in the United States.  Then the Dutch company isn't even doing bio-fuels. what they are doing is something called EZ Bail which sorts the corn stover to get higher yields as the American companies create bio-fuels from the stover.  The original poster stated he did the calculations and stated it could be used to fuel our cars.  But he never provided the calcualtions.  A responeder did offer the calcuations and bio-fuels might be able to supply Europe and the United States with just under 1% per year.  Then the original poster though we all conservered we would reduce usage by 50%.  To that the only responce would be fat chanace. 
      You really don't understand what you read  :palm: The above is all wrong!

      nctnico not sure why you say we are not understanding what we are reading.  English is my native language so not sure why you would say I and the others are not understanding what we are reading.  With all due respect because of your post I have done a fair amount of research into the current state of bio-fuels reading research papers fom Perdue and Iowa State University.  Al you seem to provide is marketing material.  There are a number of documents on Project Liberty and the Dutch company’s EZ Bale system.

      Have you read anything other than the marketing documents you have shared with us?

      I think everyone is this forum has an open mind and is willing to learn if you provide credible documentation.  Problem is you have not done so.  You are making some incredible claims when it comes to bio-fuels all we are asking for is some credible documents which support your claims.  Marketing material just doen’t cut it.

      Here is your open invitation to provide credible documentation to change our minds.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on January 03, 2019, 07:53:13 pm
      ntcnico is a troll.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 03, 2019, 08:07:00 pm
      Here is your open invitation to provide credible documentation to change our minds.
      I'm sorry but there is no way to have a decent discussion with you. I tried to explain a few things (with references) several times and every time you get it wrong and/or make it look like I wrote things I never wrote. Enough is enough.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 03, 2019, 10:17:55 pm
      Here is your open invitation to provide credible documentation to change our minds.
      I'm sorry but there is no way to have a decent discussion with you. I tried to explain a few things (with references) several times and every time you get it wrong and/or make it look like I wrote things I never wrote. Enough is enough.


      Why do you say I'me getting it wrong.  I'm just reading what what was in the links you posted and repeating what I read.  We've provided links for you and asked you questiosns which you have refused to answer.  In the links for the documents you've posted you appear to adding additional information that's not in the documents.  All we are doing is using Critial Thinking skills, you should do the same.

      I invite you to re-read the documents you provided links to and you will see all the Dutch comapny is offering is a licence for EX Bale.  There is NOTHING in the documentation saying they are the ones converting bio-mass to bio-fuel.  That is somehting the American companies are doing and have been doing.

      You seem to think cane sugar can grow in Europe as it does in Brazil.  If what you are saying is true there would have been no sugar/slave trade hundreds of years ago.










      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 04, 2019, 09:09:52 pm
      Now that we know bio-fuels aren’t the solution one poster claimed, let’s get back to discussing EVs.

      Here’s a really good comparison of BEV, Hybrid EV and Plug-in Hybrid EV. 
      Interesting that a BEV is NOT cost effective but is enviromentlety and geopolitically more effective.
      I think this is a very fair comparison of the EEVs and the considerations one needs to consider when buying one.

      https://youtu.be/5RDQj276EhI

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on January 04, 2019, 09:40:56 pm
      Waiting time for new ordered EVs have exceeded one year in our country.
      Reason: huge shortage of batteries with the manufacturers.

      I wonder what will happen if the battery has an issue and needs replacement.
      A waiting time of one year?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 04, 2019, 10:03:14 pm
      Here is your open invitation to provide credible documentation to change our minds.
      I'm sorry but there is no way to have a decent discussion with you. I tried to explain a few things (with references) several times and every time you get it wrong and/or make it look like I wrote things I never wrote. Enough is enough.


      Why do you say I'me getting it wrong.  I'm just reading what what was in the links you posted and repeating what I read.  We've provided links for you and asked you questiosns which you have refused to answer.  In the links for the documents you've posted you appear to adding additional information that's not in the documents.  All we are doing is using Critial Thinking skills, you should do the same.

      I invite you to re-read the documents you provided links to and you will see all the Dutch comapny is offering is a licence for EX Bale.  There is NOTHING in the documentation saying they are the ones converting bio-mass to bio-fuel.  That is somehting the American companies are doing and have been doing.

      You seem to think cane sugar can grow in Europe as it does in Brazil.  If what you are saying is true there would have been no sugar/slave trade hundreds of years ago.
      Please stop making a fool out of yourself for your own sake.  :popcorn: I never wrote anything remotely resembling your ramblings!  :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 04, 2019, 10:33:07 pm
      Here is your open invitation to provide credible documentation to change our minds.
      I'm sorry but there is no way to have a decent discussion with you. I tried to explain a few things (with references) several times and every time you get it wrong and/or make it look like I wrote things I never wrote. Enough is enough.


      Why do you say I'me getting it wrong.  I'm just reading what what was in the links you posted and repeating what I read.  We've provided links for you and asked you questiosns which you have refused to answer.  In the links for the documents you've posted you appear to adding additional information that's not in the documents.  All we are doing is using Critial Thinking skills, you should do the same.

      I invite you to re-read the documents you provided links to and you will see all the Dutch comapny is offering is a licence for EX Bale.  There is NOTHING in the documentation saying they are the ones converting bio-mass to bio-fuel.  That is somehting the American companies are doing and have been doing.

      You seem to think cane sugar can grow in Europe as it does in Brazil.  If what you are saying is true there would have been no sugar/slave trade hundreds of years ago.
      Please stop making a fool out of yourself for your own sake.  :popcorn: I never wrote anything remotely resembling your ramblings!  :palm:

      So follow the scientific method and present your scientific evidence.   Marketing materials like religious propaganda don’t count.  The opportunity is yours.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: free_electron on January 04, 2019, 10:52:52 pm
      sugar cane is a pest. talk to the people in Maui .... they are all too happy they finally stopped farming that stuff..
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 04, 2019, 11:13:32 pm
      sugar cane is a pest. talk to the people in Maui .... they are all too happy they finally stopped farming that stuff..

      Agreed.  But to be fair it's powering cars in Brazil and has been for 40 years.  The original poster on bio-fuels was trying to say this would work in Europe and the United States without realizing sugar cane wouldn't grow in Europe and most of the United States.  But he still insists it would work and that a Dutch compnay is doing it.  As as been pointed out by many posters he's wrong.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 05, 2019, 12:06:41 am
      So, for a BEV as a citycar, it's basically a matter of:

      For long-range travel, you need to add the issue of the charging stations, and the charging time. But in 30 minutes you can get substantial charge into a BEV, as the slow part of the charge is when the battery is over around 80%.

      Look at this, interesting for an hybrid with a turbine engine. Less weight and the same efficiency than the best ICEs: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/green-cars/deltas-micro-turbine-range-extender-will-make-production-2019-model (https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/green-cars/deltas-micro-turbine-range-extender-will-make-production-2019-model)

      Why Tesla receives such criticism in the videos?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 05, 2019, 01:13:55 am
      Here is your open invitation to provide credible documentation to change our minds.
      I'm sorry but there is no way to have a decent discussion with you. I tried to explain a few things (with references) several times and every time you get it wrong and/or make it look like I wrote things I never wrote. Enough is enough.


      Why do you say I'me getting it wrong.  I'm just reading what what was in the links you posted and repeating what I read.  We've provided links for you and asked you questiosns which you have refused to answer.  In the links for the documents you've posted you appear to adding additional information that's not in the documents.  All we are doing is using Critial Thinking skills, you should do the same.

      I invite you to re-read the documents you provided links to and you will see all the Dutch comapny is offering is a licence for EX Bale.  There is NOTHING in the documentation saying they are the ones converting bio-mass to bio-fuel.  That is somehting the American companies are doing and have been doing.

      You seem to think cane sugar can grow in Europe as it does in Brazil.  If what you are saying is true there would have been no sugar/slave trade hundreds of years ago.
      Please stop making a fool out of yourself for your own sake.  :popcorn: I never wrote anything remotely resembling your ramblings!  :palm:

      So follow the scientific method and present your scientific evidence.   Marketing materials like religious propaganda don’t count.  The opportunity is yours.
      I suggest both of you just stop. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 05, 2019, 01:14:20 am
      So, for a BEV as a citycar, it's basically a matter of:
      • Cost: but products usually get cheaper when manufactured in large amounts. Would the prices of BEVs get lower with larger production?
      • Green electricity generation: it's more like a general issue than an EV issue. We should be lowering our carbon footprint anyways. Still, big engines have better efficiency than small engines.
      • Grid capacity: for the demand of BEVs charging over-night in every house, plus daytime charging at the stations. This would need to be upgraded as more BEVs are sold, because of the increasing electricity demand.

      For long-range travel, you need to add the issue of the charging stations, and the charging time. But in 30 minutes you can get substantial charge into a BEV, as the slow part of the charge is when the battery is over around 80%.

      Look at this, interesting for an hybrid with a turbine engine. Less weight and the same efficiency than the best ICEs: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/green-cars/deltas-micro-turbine-range-extender-will-make-production-2019-model (https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/green-cars/deltas-micro-turbine-range-extender-will-make-production-2019-model)

      Why Tesla receives such criticism in the videos?

      Reason Tesla receives such criticism is because it's an experiment in progress.  The other is the crazy claims Elon makes.  A BEV semi-truck which can travel 800 miles between charges.  He is correct, but the truck couldn't haul anything as all of the cargo space would be filled with batteries.

      But when it comes to his cars, people are sure buying them.  And the market cap of his company is 10 times that of Ford.  Analysists keep insisting he's going bankrupt, yet every time Elon has proved them wrong.  Got to give credit where credit is due.

      As for EVs did you see the video comparing Hybrids, BEVs and PHEVs?  While BEVs may sound ideal, economically they are a terrible deal for the consumer.  I think the breakeven between and ICE and BEV is 200,000 km.  What’s interesting is the proven reliability and safety of the battery technology used in EVs. 


      https://youtu.be/5RDQj276EhI (https://youtu.be/5RDQj276EhI)



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on January 05, 2019, 06:40:46 am
      Why Tesla receives such criticism in the videos?

      Because Telsa concentrate on only one part of the business.  Their after-sale and parts available (and used Tesla purchase programs) are utter and complete crap.  You can find dozens and dozens of people waiting months for simple parts, or in this case, the purchase of a used certified pre-owned Tesla that has taken 2+ months and counting (and this to a guy who has a big Tesla following)

      The lack of dealing with the rest of the business will be Tesla's downfall.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ro6kpKlw0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ro6kpKlw0)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 05, 2019, 10:09:44 am
      Hey Boffin, in snafu.ca you have some typos:

      Quote
      [...]
      35kWh battery, approx 225km range.
      100kW (134hp) electric motor and 214 ft-lbs of torque
      14 kWh / 100km power consumption.
      That’s at C$0.085/kWh or $1.19 for 100km; or about 0.8 litre / 100km with local gas prices
      [...]

      1) 35[kWh]/225[km] is 15.5 kWh/100km not 14.
      2) kWh is a unit of energy not power.

      In this page:
      https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1103654_volkswagen-e-golf-real-world-range-vs-epa-estimates-over-six-month-test/page-2 (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1103654_volkswagen-e-golf-real-world-range-vs-epa-estimates-over-six-month-test/page-2)
      they say the trip computer shows (after six months) an average of 3.7 miles per kWh, that's 100/(3.7*1.60934)= 16.8 kWh/100km (20% more than your figures), that corrected for out-of-the-wall-plug-energy is around 16.8/0.85= 19.7 kWh/100km (41% more than your figures)

      It also says "At the approximately 14 cents per kilowatt hour that we pay in Portland, Oregon", but your figure for that is another unbelievably good C$0.085 = US$0.06 or less than half as much (does electricity in the USA really cost 233% more than yours?)

      Here: https://www.gasbuddy.com/CAN (https://www.gasbuddy.com/CAN)
      It says the price per litre of gasoline in Canada goes from C$0.91 to C$1.24, the average of which is 1.08 so $1.19/1.08= 1.1 litres (which is 37% more than what you say).

      If we put in all the other sites' numbers and do the math again:

      19.7[kWh/100km]*0.14[US$/kWh]= 2.75 [US$/100km] = 3.67 [C$/100km]
      3.67/1.08= 3.4 litres of gasoline/100 km

      The picture is a completely different one, isn't it?

      Your numbers always seem too good to be true.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 05, 2019, 10:41:07 am
      Why Tesla receives such criticism in the videos?

      Because Telsa concentrate on only one part of the business.  Their after-sale and parts available (and used Tesla purchase programs) are utter and complete crap.  You can find dozens and dozens of people waiting months for simple parts, or in this case, the purchase of a used certified pre-owned Tesla that has taken 2+ months and counting (and this to a guy who has a big Tesla following)

      The lack of dealing with the rest of the business will be Tesla's downfall.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ro6kpKlw0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ro6kpKlw0)

      Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t Tesla in the business of selling new cars?  From what I understand they are doing well.  Consumers are buying the cars and are very pleased.  Tesla’s market cap is o the order of 10 times greater of that than Ford Do apparently there are a lot of people who do not agree with you or the guy in the video.

      Tesla is an experiment unfolding.  DISRUPTON is what this generation is all about.  Elon did that with the banking industry and PayPal.  Let’s go I’ve credit where credit is due.  But look at how he has sucessfully disrupted the car industry.  Like the guy or his car company one thing is for sure he disrupted the car industry.  Give the guy credit for doiing so. 

      Will Tesla cars succeed?  Who knows.  But for the last 10 years or expert analysts have been saying Tesla Motors will fail and go bankrupt.  So far all of those “experts” have been wrong. 

      The thing Tesla has going for it is the economy is doing well and there are a lot of people with money who are willing on spending it on technology company that makes cars good which they beleive are good for the planet.  These people do not buy used cars, they sell them.

      Just look at the guy in the video.  He want’s a Tesla so bad he’s willing to put money down on a used Tesla without even seeing pictures of the car or even knowing when he can take delivery of the car.

      Tell me one other car company that can do the same?

      So far the Tesla Motors experiment is working, they are still in business.  They are also the model com[any Ford and other companies want to become.  So if Tesla Motors is the company Ford want’s to become isn’t Tesla a huge success so far?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 05, 2019, 04:13:52 pm
      So, for a BEV as a citycar, it's basically a matter of:
      • Cost: but products usually get cheaper when manufactured in large amounts. Would the prices of BEVs get lower with larger production?
      • Green electricity generation: it's more like a general issue than an EV issue. We should be lowering our carbon footprint anyways. Still, big engines have better efficiency than small engines.
      • Grid capacity: for the demand of BEVs charging over-night in every house, plus daytime charging at the stations. This would need to be upgraded as more BEVs are sold, because of the increasing electricity demand.

      For long-range travel, you need to add the issue of the charging stations, and the charging time. But in 30 minutes you can get substantial charge into a BEV, as the slow part of the charge is when the battery is over around 80%.

      Look at this, interesting for an hybrid with a turbine engine. Less weight and the same efficiency than the best ICEs: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/green-cars/deltas-micro-turbine-range-extender-will-make-production-2019-model (https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/green-cars/deltas-micro-turbine-range-extender-will-make-production-2019-model)

      Why Tesla receives such criticism in the videos?

      Reason Tesla receives such criticism is because it's an experiment in progress.  The other is the crazy claims Elon makes.  A BEV semi-truck which can travel 800 miles between charges.  He is correct, but the truck couldn't haul anything as all of the cargo space would be filled with batteries.

      But when it comes to his cars, people are sure buying them.  And the market cap of his company is 10 times that of Ford.  Analysists keep insisting he's going bankrupt, yet every time Elon has proved them wrong.  Got to give credit where credit is due.

      As for EVs did you see the video comparing Hybrids, BEVs and PHEVs?  While BEVs may sound ideal, economically they are a terrible deal for the consumer.  I think the breakeven between and ICE and BEV is 200,000 km.  What’s interesting is the proven reliability and safety of the battery technology used in EVs. 


      https://youtu.be/5RDQj276EhI (https://youtu.be/5RDQj276EhI)
      Yes, i have seen the video, but remember that at some point in the past, only the rich could buy a car with air conditioning, or if you go back enough, even a car.
      Now, imagine if cars with A/C had greatly reduced range, took more time to charge, and required different charging stations.
      This is not going to happen overnight, that's for sure. But maybe, we will get to the point where they're cost-effective for most of us.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on January 05, 2019, 05:32:58 pm
      Hey Boffin, in snafu.ca you have some typos:

      Quote
      [...]
      35kWh battery, approx 225km range.
      100kW (134hp) electric motor and 214 ft-lbs of torque
      14 kWh / 100km power consumption.
      That’s at C$0.085/kWh or $1.19 for 100km; or about 0.8 litre / 100km with local gas prices
      [...]

      1) 35[kWh]/225[km] is 15.5 kWh/100km not 14.
      2) kWh is a unit of energy not power.

      In this page:
      https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1103654_volkswagen-e-golf-real-world-range-vs-epa-estimates-over-six-month-test/page-2 (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1103654_volkswagen-e-golf-real-world-range-vs-epa-estimates-over-six-month-test/page-2)
      they say the trip computer shows (after six months) an average of 3.7 miles per kWh, that's 100/(3.7*1.60934)= 16.8 kWh/100km (20% more than your figures), that corrected for out-of-the-wall-plug-energy is around 16.8/0.85= 19.7 kWh/100km (41% more than your figures)

      It also says "At the approximately 14 cents per kilowatt hour that we pay in Portland, Oregon", but your figure for that is another unbelievably good C$0.085 = US$0.06 or less than half as much (does electricity in the USA really cost 233% more than yours?)

      Here: https://www.gasbuddy.com/CAN (https://www.gasbuddy.com/CAN)
      It says the price per litre of gasoline in Canada goes from C$0.91 to C$1.24, the average of which is 1.08 so $1.19/1.08= 1.1 litres (which is 37% more than what you say).

      If we put in all the other sites' numbers and do the math again:

      19.7[kWh/100km]*0.14[US$/kWh]= 2.75 [US$/100km] = 3.67 [C$/100km]
      3.67/1.08= 3.4 litres of gasoline/100 km

      The picture is a completely different one, isn't it?

      Your numbers always seem too good to be true.

      You're right in that my division number was incorrect, and I posted those numbers shortly after getting the car.  Fixed.

      As for actual consumption (from the wall), I see between 17-19kWh/100km depending on the weather. It was as low as 16 when we got the car in May as it required neither heating nor air conditioning.

      Yes, electricity is that cheap here.
      C$0.085/kWh.  This part of the country has a lot of (cheap/green) hydro electric power, and results in those rates. https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html)

      Yes, gasoline is that expensive here.
      Metro Vancouver has some of the highest gasoline prices in North America, and a quick look on gas buddy this morning shows C$1.349 as the most common price for the area.   ref: https://www.gasbuddy.com/home?search=vancouver&fuel=1 (https://www.gasbuddy.com/home?search=vancouver&fuel=1)  Back when that was originally published (June) the average price of gasoline was in the 1.499 -> 1.549 range.  As the price of oil has dropped over the last year, so has the retail price of gasoline.  Price of oil (WTI/bbl) has dropped from the mid US$60 range, down to US$45 today (called "we're slightly sorry for killing that journalist pricing, maybe this will make you forget about it" pricing)

      If you include sales tax,which I didn't in my original calculation, and wall consumption as opposed to vehicle reported consumption, which brings the numbers to 9.1c/kWh and 18kWh/100km, you end up with
      18 * 0.091 = $1.638/100km, or about 1.2l/100km.

      To sum up your post, if you take incorrect electricity pricing, and incorrect gasoline pricing and apply it to my vehicle, the numbers are wildly incorrect
      However it's interesting to note that even with your completely ridiculous numbers, it's swill half of the price of the 7litre/100km ICE version.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on January 05, 2019, 05:56:09 pm
      Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t Tesla in the business of selling new cars?  From what I understand they are doing well.  Consumers are buying the cars and are very pleased. 

      Not all customers.  When something goes wrong with a Tesla, it goes wrong in a big way, as their ability to provide parts/repair has been an issue all along.

      Quote
      Tesla is an experiment unfolding.  DISRUPTON is what this generation is all about.  Elon did that with the banking industry and PayPal.  Let’s go I’ve credit where credit is due.  But look at how he has sucessfully disrupted the car industry.  Like the guy or his car company one thing is for sure he disrupted the car industry.  Give the guy credit for doiing so. 
      Making money is what it's all about.  Tesla has done well on producing an amazing powertrain, and getting vast amounts of hype; which has propelled the company along.  Now that they have to survive more on making cars and less on hype, let's see how it goes.

      Quote
      Will Tesla cars succeed?  Who knows.  But for the last 10 years or expert analysts have been saying Tesla Motors will fail and go bankrupt.  So far all of those “experts” have been wrong. 
      I think they will partly succeed.  I would expect them to exit the car business and stick to the powertrain business. I'd expect "Powered by Tesla" in the same way that Chrysler use Cummins powertrains in some of their trucks.

      Quote
      Just look at the guy in the video.  He want’s a Tesla so bad he’s willing to put money down on a used Tesla without even seeing pictures of the car or even knowing when he can take delivery of the car.
      He needs a Tesla X (he already owns a bunch of others, that he's rebuilt, watch his videos), so he can test-fit aftermarket parts that he wants to make, because Tesla is so pitiful at the parts market.

      Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t Tesla in the business of selling new cars?  From what I understand they are doing well.  Consumers are buying the cars and are very pleased. 
      and circling back to your original question, the answer is essentially NO.  Tesla can't just be in the business of selling new, they also need to be in the business of building, selling used (trade ins) and selling parts/service; or they'll get crushed by the rest of the companies that provide full service.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 05, 2019, 06:15:31 pm
      You make several very good points.

      Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t Tesla in the business of selling new cars?  From what I understand they are doing well.  Consumers are buying the cars and are very pleased. 
      and circling back to your original question, the answer is essentially NO.  Tesla can't just be in the business of selling new, they also need to be in the business of building, selling used (trade ins) and selling parts/service; or they'll get crushed by the rest of the companies that provide full service.
      [/quote]

      Couldn’t Tesla just remain in and focus on the new car business and allow 3rd party companies to license the manufacture of repalcement and aftermarket parts?  To a certain degree isn’t this what the big car companies are doing But no licensing is involved.

      Out of curiosity any idea how many Tesla cars have been sold?  The Australian guy in the videos gives sales figures at the 1,000 cars for the well known ICE car company.  Sounds crazy low to me which is why I’m asking.  I suspect there are only a handful of Teslas in Australia.  But I don’t know which is why I am asking.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 05, 2019, 06:28:09 pm
      Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t Tesla in the business of selling new cars?  From what I understand they are doing well.  Consumers are buying the cars and are very pleased. 
      and circling back to your original question, the answer is essentially NO.  Tesla can't just be in the business of selling new, they also need to be in the business of building, selling used (trade ins) and selling parts/service; or they'll get crushed by the rest of the companies that provide full service.
      Tell me which car manufacturers are in the business of selling used cars? AFAIK none. Sure some dealerships sell used vehicles and they (usually) are happy to service any car from the brand they represent but dealers are independant companies.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on January 05, 2019, 06:51:57 pm
      Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t Tesla in the business of selling new cars?  From what I understand they are doing well.  Consumers are buying the cars and are very pleased. 
      and circling back to your original question, the answer is essentially NO.  Tesla can't just be in the business of selling new, they also need to be in the business of building, selling used (trade ins) and selling parts/service; or they'll get crushed by the rest of the companies that provide full service.
      Tell me which car manufacturers are in the business of selling used cars? AFAIK none. Sure some dealerships sell used vehicles and they (usually) are happy to service any car from the brand they represent but dealers are independant companies.

      All of them have 'Certified Pre-Owned' programs of some sort.  Here's your 'none' (aka what you'd like to believe) versus reality
      https://usedvehicles.vwmodels.ca/search/ (https://usedvehicles.vwmodels.ca/search/)
      https://www.mercedes-benz.ca/en/cpo (https://www.mercedes-benz.ca/en/cpo)
      https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/vehicles/certified-used (https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/vehicles/certified-used)
      https://www.hondacertified.com/ (https://www.hondacertified.com/)
      https://www.ford.ca/certified-used/ (https://www.ford.ca/certified-used/)
      https://www.usedcars.peugeot.co.uk/ (https://www.usedcars.peugeot.co.uk/)
      http://www.certifiedpreowned.chrysler.com/ (http://www.certifiedpreowned.chrysler.com/)

      even Tesla (except they're really really bad at it -- see linked video)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 05, 2019, 07:22:32 pm
      [...]
      Yes, electricity is that cheap here.
      C$0.085/kWh.  This part of the country has a lot of (cheap/green) hydro electric power, and results in those rates. https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html)
      [...]
      If you include sales tax,which I didn't in my original calculation, and wall consumption as opposed to vehicle reported consumption, which brings the numbers to 9.1c/kWh and 18kWh/100km, you end up with
      18 * 0.091 = $1.638/100km, or about 1.2l/100km.

      Boffin, in that link the absolute minimum price for the so called "step 1" is C$0.0884 per kWh + 5% + taxes which even before taxes is already more than your shiny new recalculated rate of C$0.091/kWh, look: 0.0884*1.05= C$0.09282 before taxes.

      Are these https://www.thoughtco.com/canadian-sales-tax-rates-510599 (https://www.thoughtco.com/canadian-sales-tax-rates-510599) the taxes?

      If so, then for BC C$0.09282+5%(GST/VAT)+7%(PST) is C$0.09282*1.12= C$0.104 and there you go, your numbers are way off again by 14.2%.

      And the step 2 prices are $0.1326+5% before taxes...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 05, 2019, 07:39:28 pm
      Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t Tesla in the business of selling new cars?  From what I understand they are doing well.  Consumers are buying the cars and are very pleased. 
      and circling back to your original question, the answer is essentially NO.  Tesla can't just be in the business of selling new, they also need to be in the business of building, selling used (trade ins) and selling parts/service; or they'll get crushed by the rest of the companies that provide full service.
      Tell me which car manufacturers are in the business of selling used cars? AFAIK none. Sure some dealerships sell used vehicles and they (usually) are happy to service any car from the brand they represent but dealers are independant companies.

      All of them have 'Certified Pre-Owned' programs of some sort.  Here's your 'none' (aka what you'd like to believe) versus reality
      https://usedvehicles.vwmodels.ca/search/ (https://usedvehicles.vwmodels.ca/search/)
      https://www.mercedes-benz.ca/en/cpo (https://www.mercedes-benz.ca/en/cpo)
      https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/vehicles/certified-used (https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/vehicles/certified-used)
      https://www.hondacertified.com/ (https://www.hondacertified.com/)
      https://www.ford.ca/certified-used/ (https://www.ford.ca/certified-used/)
      https://www.usedcars.peugeot.co.uk/ (https://www.usedcars.peugeot.co.uk/)
      http://www.certifiedpreowned.chrysler.com/ (http://www.certifiedpreowned.chrysler.com/)

      even Tesla (except they're really really bad at it -- see linked video)
      But these are all programs executed by the dealers. Not the manufacturers! After all they are not shipping cars back to the manufacturer to have a car checked and/or refurbished. The reasons Tesla doesn't do this because (AFAIK) Tesla mostly does direct sales without a dealer network.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on January 05, 2019, 09:01:34 pm
      [...]
      Yes, electricity is that cheap here.
      C$0.085/kWh.  This part of the country has a lot of (cheap/green) hydro electric power, and results in those rates. https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html)
      [...]
      If you include sales tax,which I didn't in my original calculation, and wall consumption as opposed to vehicle reported consumption, which brings the numbers to 9.1c/kWh and 18kWh/100km, you end up with
      18 * 0.091 = $1.638/100km, or about 1.2l/100km.

      Boffin, in that link the absolute minimum price for the so called "step 1" is C$0.0884 per kWh + 5% + taxes which even before taxes is already more than your shiny new recalculated rate of C$0.091/kWh, look: 0.0884*1.05= C$0.09282 before taxes.

      Are these https://www.thoughtco.com/canadian-sales-tax-rates-510599 (https://www.thoughtco.com/canadian-sales-tax-rates-510599) the taxes?

      If so, then for BC C$0.09282+5%(GST/VAT)+7%(PST) is C$0.09282*1.12= C$0.104 and there you go, your numbers are way off again by 14.2%.

      And the step 2 prices are $0.1326+5% before taxes...

      You're right, the rate did go up from 0.085 to 0.088 during the summer (after I wrote that article) which I hadn't taken into account, and I did fail to include the 5% rate rider, however, we don't pay PST on electricity, so in reality I'm paying ..
      0.0884 * 1.05 * 1.05 = about C$0.0975/kWh.   7% more than I had originally said; when you account for it all.

      However, that's still half the price that you invented for me, of US$0.14/kWh (C$0.1866).  and you're claiming my numbers are complete bunk... <sigh>  You guys will never learn.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on January 05, 2019, 09:03:09 pm
      Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t Tesla in the business of selling new cars?  From what I understand they are doing well.  Consumers are buying the cars and are very pleased. 
      and circling back to your original question, the answer is essentially NO.  Tesla can't just be in the business of selling new, they also need to be in the business of building, selling used (trade ins) and selling parts/service; or they'll get crushed by the rest of the companies that provide full service.
      Tell me which car manufacturers are in the business of selling used cars? AFAIK none. Sure some dealerships sell used vehicles and they (usually) are happy to service any car from the brand they represent but dealers are independant companies.

      All of them have 'Certified Pre-Owned' programs of some sort.  Here's your 'none' (aka what you'd like to believe) versus reality
      https://usedvehicles.vwmodels.ca/search/ (https://usedvehicles.vwmodels.ca/search/)
      https://www.mercedes-benz.ca/en/cpo (https://www.mercedes-benz.ca/en/cpo)
      https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/vehicles/certified-used (https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/vehicles/certified-used)
      https://www.hondacertified.com/ (https://www.hondacertified.com/)
      https://www.ford.ca/certified-used/ (https://www.ford.ca/certified-used/)
      https://www.usedcars.peugeot.co.uk/ (https://www.usedcars.peugeot.co.uk/)
      http://www.certifiedpreowned.chrysler.com/ (http://www.certifiedpreowned.chrysler.com/)

      even Tesla (except they're really really bad at it -- see linked video)
      But these are all programs executed by the dealers. Not the manufacturers! After all they are not shipping cars back to the manufacturer to have a car checked and/or refurbished. The reasons Tesla doesn't do this because (AFAIK) Tesla mostly does direct sales without a dealer network.

      These are all MANUFACTURER warranty programs, along with manufacturer based advertising, it's not the dealers doing this independently.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 05, 2019, 09:12:30 pm
      No, but it is like a franchise chain having an identical look and shared marketing department. For example: most McDonalds restaurants are not owned by McDonalds but are franchises. They use the marketing materials and offer the promotions put together by McDonalds.

      When it comes to warranty most manufacturers have some kind of extended warranty but depending on where you are the dealer is the (legal) party offering the warranty to the consumer.

      Again: the manufacturers are not doing anything with used cars. They just put the promotional material together so their dealers can appear as if they offer added value compared to the generic car shop around the corner. The manufacturers would rather have people buying new cars but it helps if people shop at their dealers so people don't look at other brands. It also has helped car dealers a bit to generate extra revenue during the last financial crisis.

      BTW: so called manufacturer warranty repairs & recalls are often paid partly by the dealer as well. All part of the business model but it is not like the dealer gets paid 100% by the manufacturer for time spend on fixing a design flaw.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 05, 2019, 10:01:02 pm
      Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t Tesla in the business of selling new cars?  From what I understand they are doing well.  Consumers are buying the cars and are very pleased. 
      and circling back to your original question, the answer is essentially NO.  Tesla can't just be in the business of selling new, they also need to be in the business of building, selling used (trade ins) and selling parts/service; or they'll get crushed by the rest of the companies that provide full service.
      Tell me which car manufacturers are in the business of selling used cars? AFAIK none. Sure some dealerships sell used vehicles and they (usually) are happy to service any car from the brand they represent but dealers are independant companies.

      All of them have 'Certified Pre-Owned' programs of some sort.  Here's your 'none' (aka what you'd like to believe) versus reality
      https://usedvehicles.vwmodels.ca/search/ (https://usedvehicles.vwmodels.ca/search/)
      https://www.mercedes-benz.ca/en/cpo (https://www.mercedes-benz.ca/en/cpo)
      https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/vehicles/certified-used (https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/vehicles/certified-used)
      https://www.hondacertified.com/ (https://www.hondacertified.com/)
      https://www.ford.ca/certified-used/ (https://www.ford.ca/certified-used/)
      https://www.usedcars.peugeot.co.uk/ (https://www.usedcars.peugeot.co.uk/)
      http://www.certifiedpreowned.chrysler.com/ (http://www.certifiedpreowned.chrysler.com/)

      even Tesla (except they're really really bad at it -- see linked video)
      But these are all programs executed by the dealers. Not the manufacturers! After all they are not shipping cars back to the manufacturer to have a car checked and/or refurbished. The reasons Tesla doesn't do this because (AFAIK) Tesla mostly does direct sales without a dealer network.

      These are all MANUFACTURER warranty programs, along with manufacturer based advertising, it's not the dealers doing this independently.

      I susspect this is something the manufacturer does to get people to buy née cars/. I highly doubt the car manufacturer pays for the repairs, they only coordinate the program for the dealers.  Repairs are probably handled through some third party repair insurance company. 

      Don’t y9u think a new car company would want to sell new cars where they make the most money?  I high;y doubt they would wan to mess around with used cars and all f the problems that go along with them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 05, 2019, 10:39:51 pm
      I suspect this is something the manufacturer does to get people to buy née cars/. I highly doubt the car manufacturer pays for the repairs, they only coordinate the program for the dealers.  Repairs are probably handled through some third party repair insurance company. 

      Don’t you think a new car company would want to sell new cars where they make the most money?  I high;y doubt they would wan to mess around with used cars and all f the problems that go along with them.
      To sell new cars manufacturers have to ensure a good market for the cars traded in. This means most car makers work to keep up the residual value of vehicles coming off lease and other finance schemes. They have schemes to ensure good warranty and finance arrangements are available for those traded in cars. Remember that a huge percentage of new cars and cars after their first trade in are financed by arms or associates of the manufacturer. This finance is often the most profitable part of the manufacturer's business. This is why many dealers aren't that keen on talking to cash customers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 05, 2019, 11:38:56 pm
      I suspect this is something the manufacturer does to get people to buy née cars/. I highly doubt the car manufacturer pays for the repairs, they only coordinate the program for the dealers.  Repairs are probably handled through some third party repair insurance company. 

      Don’t you think a new car company would want to sell new cars where they make the most money?  I high;y doubt they would wan to mess around with used cars and all f the problems that go along with them.
      To sell new cars manufacturers have to ensure a good market for the cars traded in. This means most car makers work to keep up the residual value of vehicles coming off lease and other finance schemes. They have schemes to ensure good warranty and finance arrangements are available for those traded in cars. Remember that a huge percentage of new cars and cars after their first trade in are financed by arms or associates of the manufacturer. This finance is often the most profitable part of the manufacturer's business. This is why many dealers aren't that keen on talking to cash customers.


      Yes, that is how all car companies have done it in the past.  But Tesla is all about DISRUPTION.  They have no existing customers.  People who are buying Tesla Motor cars are wealthy and doing what they think is good to disrupt the auto industry and for the planet and people's health.
      Tesla makes their money when someone buys a new car, not when someone buys are used one.  (Isn't that true for all car companies?)  And aren't cars the "new" computers and cell phones?  Every 3 or 4 years the vast majority of people get a new computer or cell phone.  Tesla is a Technology company, so they are expecting people to buy a new car every 3-10 years.  And if the battery life is 10 years isn't that what people are going to do?  Who will want a 10-year-old EV with batteries that have detreated to a range of say 10 miles?
      Just as cell phone and computer manufactures are making products where parts can’t easily be replaced isn’t Tesla and the other car companies doing the same thing?  They just don’t trust their mechanics even their factory trained ones to fix cars properly.   I have a Chevy Equinox I purchased new.  And twice within 60,000 miles Chevy replaced the entire engine because something like a $100 part needed to be replaced.  It’s more economical for the car companies to install a new engine and have a “happy customer” than have a tech at a dealership which can’t assemble the engine to factory specs.  Look isn’t this exactly what Apple is doing?  I’ve a problem with a MacBook pro.  Apple tried to fix it once maybe twice and then would up be giving me a brand-new computer.  And for that matter think about it, would you want to buy a used laptop or cellphone with a 3-year-old battery and an operating system which can not be upgraded?  Just means you are buying into old technology that’s worn out.  There’s a reason most people aren’t driving around in a 20-year-old or more car.  It pollutes more, is not as safe, and has outdated technology, (can’t pair with your cell phone, no lane change warning, no emergency breaking, no back-up camera, etc.) 

      Cars like TVs, computers, cell phones and most other technology is disposable and recycled.  Isn’t that the future for cars as well?  And what happens if we ever get driverless cars?
      Tesla is all about disruption in the car industry.  Give Elon credit as he has accomplished it.




       

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 06, 2019, 01:44:28 pm
      "In 2016, 91 per cent of the urban population worldwide were breathing air that did not meet the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines value for particulate matter (PM 2.5); more than half were exposed to air pollution levels at least 2.5 times higher than that safety standard. In 2016, an estimated 4.2 million people died as a result of high levels of ambient air pollution."

      Ouch

      source: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2018/overview/
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 06, 2019, 04:18:12 pm
      More people die prematurity air pollution/particulates in car and diesel exhaust than die in auto-accidents every year.  Interestly in the United States more people die from guns than in auto-accidents.

      Since the beginning of the industrial revolution on average over 1,000 coal miners would die from coal mine accidents.  Every year about 100 solar panel installers die every year, typically from falling off the roof.

      In 60 years of using nuclear power total number of deaths is less than 100.  Last major nuclear power disaster there were no deaths.

      Far more of our planet has been destroyed in mining for coal than humans have made radio active from nuclear power waste.  Every year the burning of coal and other fossil fuels releases millions of tons of radioactive isotopes and mercury into the air we breathe and our oceans.

      It’s all about risks and how we view them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on January 06, 2019, 04:48:38 pm

      I susspect this is something the manufacturer does to get people to buy née cars/. I highly doubt the car manufacturer pays for the repairs, they only coordinate the program for the dealers.  Repairs are probably handled through some third party repair insurance company. 

      Don’t y9u think a new car company would want to sell new cars where they make the most money?  I high;y doubt they would wan to mess around with used cars and all f the problems that go along with them.

      Of course it is a program to get people to trade in recent cars for new.  Just because it is, it doesn't mean it's not run by the manufacturer.  If you buy a 'certified pre-owned' car from any of the companies I listed, you have access to ANY dealer for repairs, and it's paid for by the manufacturer.  Heck, even Boeing and Airbus take in used aircraft and re-sell them.  My point is that Tesla is really really really really bad at the other aspects of being an auto manufacturer. (support, parts, used, etc).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 06, 2019, 04:55:53 pm
      In 60 years of using nuclear power total number of deaths is less than 100. Last major nuclear power disaster there were no deaths.
      That's not true, most estimates range from 3'000-30'000 premature deaths after Chernobyl from the radiation. Although it was less than 100 that died in direct relation to the accident. Still peanuts compared to air pollution and many other things.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 06, 2019, 05:30:34 pm
      In 60 years of using nuclear power total number of deaths is less than 100. Last major nuclear power disaster there were no deaths.
      That's not true, most estimates range from 3'000-30'000 premature deaths after Chernobyl from the radiation. Although it was less than 100 that died in direct relation to the accident. Still peanuts compared to air pollution and many other things.

      The 3,000 to 30,000 is disputed, but let’s go along with the high estimate of 30,000.  That’s still less than the number of people every year just in the United States who die is car crashes or are killed by guns.  30,000 is still less than all of the people killed as a result of coal mining and the burning of fossil fuels every couple of years.  And that doesn’t even take into account the millions of tons of nuclear ionizing radiation and mercury the burning of fossil fuels releases into our air and oceans every year.  Our oceans have so much mercury in them as the result of man burning fossil fuels we warn people not to eat a lot of fish.

      There’s a risk with everything we do.  Question is which one is better for us?  It’s a balance between our needs today vs. future generations.   Which one is more important? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 06, 2019, 05:43:05 pm
      Yup. We could have a Chernobyl accident every year and it would cause less harm to human health than air pollution does, and we haven't even considered climate change yet!

      People are very irrational when it comes to risk. People like what is familiar to them, like a cosy wood (or coal) fire, but in reality that is far more dangerous than nuclear power.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 06, 2019, 06:28:11 pm
      Yup. We could have a Chernobyl accident every year and it would cause less harm to human health than air pollution does, and we haven't even considered climate change yet!

      People are very irrational when it comes to risk. People like what is familiar to them, like a cosy wood (or coal) fire, but in reality that is far more dangerous than nuclear power.

      Right.  How many fossil fulel spill have we had compared to nuclear power plant accidents?  I can only think of two nuclear power accidents in the past 60 years.  Now compare that to oil/fossil fuel related spills/accidents I can think of over two dozen which have occurred in the same time frame.

      There one in Centrallia Pennsylvania whcih occured in the early 1960s which we haven’t been able put a stop to.

      Someone correct me if I am wrong.  Between China, the United States and Australia there are well over 1,000 out of control coal fires.  (One of the ones in the US has been burning since the early 1960s.)  If I recall heariunbg the number correctly these fires are emitting as much CO2 as something like all of the automobiles in the US and Europe every year.  (Or somethnbg to that magnitude.)


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 06, 2019, 07:31:11 pm
      Wow, hadn't heard about Centralia before. :o They've basically had to abandon the entire town. I know of a place in Sweden where they have a gigant pile of oil shale that have been burning since the 1940s.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 06, 2019, 09:04:10 pm
      I can only think of two nuclear power accidents in the past 60 years.  Now compare that to oil/fossil fuel related spills/accidents I can think of over two dozen which have occurred in the same time frame.
      While the number of nuclear accidents is low, if you can only think of two you aren't really trying.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 06, 2019, 09:44:49 pm
      There have only been two major accidents at civilian nuclear power stations that have caused harm to people or the environment. Chernobyl and Fukushima. There are a few other military related accidents though, not to mention all the nukes they blew up in the atmosphere. :(
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 06, 2019, 10:05:08 pm
      There have only been two major accidents at civilian nuclear power stations that have caused harm to people or the environment. Chernobyl and Fukushima. There are a few other military related accidents though, not to mention all the nukes they blew up in the atmosphere. :(
      Dounreay was probably as bad as Chernobyl, but the coverups mean we'll never really know. Three Mile Island let stuff out, but it remains unclear just how much. As I said, not many accidents, but its not as low as 2. You also have places like Sellafield with a long history of poor control, yet only one event that came close to a real disaster.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 06, 2019, 10:09:28 pm
      I can only think of two nuclear power accidents in the past 60 years.  Now compare that to oil/fossil fuel related spills/accidents I can think of over two dozen which have occurred in the same time frame.
      While the number of nuclear accidents is low, if you can only think of two you aren't really trying.

      Okay, if I give it some thought, I can think of two others.  Three mile island, no deaths, and SL-1, three deaths.  Wait one more, Santa Susana, no dead.  We still have less than 100 dead.

      Now to be fair, if I think about fossil fuel spills I can think of over a dozen more.

      Look none of these energy sources are without risk.  When it comes to loss of life and continued ongoing heath issues short term as well as long term coal/fossil fuels are the worst.  Hasn’t the burning of fossil fuels released far more radioactive isotopes into our environment than nuclear power? 




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 06, 2019, 10:19:42 pm
      There have only been two major accidents at civilian nuclear power stations that have caused harm to people or the environment. Chernobyl and Fukushima. There are a few other military related accidents though, not to mention all the nukes they blew up in the atmosphere. :(
      Dounreay was probably as bad as Chernobyl, but the coverups mean we'll never really know. Three Mile Island let stuff out, but it remains unclear just how much. As I said, not many accidents, but its not as low as 2. You also have places like Sellafield with a long history of poor control, yet only one event that came close to a real disaster.

      There is no mention of a nuclear power plant or nuclear power plant accident in or around Dounreay.  What’s the name of the nuclear power plant and what was the accident? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 06, 2019, 10:20:35 pm
      There have only been two major accidents at civilian nuclear power stations that have caused harm to people or the environment. Chernobyl and Fukushima. There are a few other military related accidents though, not to mention all the nukes they blew up in the atmosphere. :(
      Dounreay was probably as bad as Chernobyl, but the coverups mean we'll never really know. Three Mile Island let stuff out, but it remains unclear just how much. As I said, not many accidents, but its not as low as 2. You also have places like Sellafield with a long history of poor control, yet only one event that came close to a real disaster.
      There is no way to cover up a large accident. There is nothing that is so easy to measure as radioactive decay. Geiger counters can detect the decay from individual atoms. Many elements that are emitted from a nuclear accident are not naturally occurring so we can tell where they came from if they are found (like caesium-137)

      Independent measurements after the Three Mile Island accident didn't see any increase in background radiation or caesium-137 (there is already caesium in the US after the atmospheric nuke testing, but the levels didn't change near or far away from the reactor).

      EDIT: Lots of people have Geiger counters at home and measure background radiation continually. Some people on this forum have built their own even.

      Dave showed a really cool one that was made by Shodan here on the forum:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKjtOTeAevg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKjtOTeAevg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 06, 2019, 10:45:34 pm
      Meanwhile I've found an interesting article from June 2018 which sums up the status on 3rd generation bio-fuels:
      http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years (http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years)

      Appearantly it is commercially viable to make 3d generation bio-fuels:
      Yancey predicts corn fiber-to-ethanol will be the first cellulosic fuel to top 1 billion gallons, with multiple starch plants adopting one of the new technologies well before there will be multiple standalone, dedicated biomass plants. “It could be adopted as fast as corn oil was, because it is so profitable,” he says. The projected return on investment for D3Max is at one year with a 40 percent equity investment. 

      And the leftovers may even serve as food for animals:
      The distillers grains left after the fiber is converted to ethanol tests at 50 percent crude protein on a dry weight basis. Feed trials will be conducted this fall to establish its performance in poultry, swine and dairy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 06, 2019, 11:29:42 pm
      Meanwhile I've found an interesting article from June 2018 which sums up the status on 3rd generation bio-fuels:
      http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years (http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years)

      Appearantly it is commercially viable to make 3d generation bio-fuels:
      Yancey predicts corn fiber-to-ethanol will be the first cellulosic fuel to top 1 billion gallons, with multiple starch plants adopting one of the new technologies well before there will be multiple standalone, dedicated biomass plants. “It could be adopted as fast as corn oil was, because it is so profitable,” he says. The projected return on investment for D3Max is at one year with a 40 percent equity investment. 

      And the leftovers may even serve as food for animals:
      The distillers grains left after the fiber is converted to ethanol tests at 50 percent crude protein on a dry weight basis. Feed trials will be conducted this fall to establish its performance in poultry, swine and dairy.

      Again with the marking hype  - "Yancey predicts corn fiber-to-ethanol will be the first cellulosic fuel... " 
      My psychic is predicting they wont.

       “It could be adopted as fast"  But then it could be adopted much slower.

      "The projected return on investment for D3Max..."   What if the projections are wrong? 

       "Feed trials will be conducted this fall...."  So they are still experiment, which means we don't know.


      This is from June 2018, so they have had 6 months.  Let's see if what you posted turned out to be true?
      Was the prediction correct? NO!
      Was it adopted as fast as corn?  NO!
      Did they meet projected returns?  b]NO![/b]

      How did the trials go?  Not as well as perdicticted.

      Are you begining to see a pattern here?

      Thank you for playing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 07, 2019, 12:07:30 am
      The problem with fission reactors, is that the accidents can have terrible effects in any part of the world. An explosion causes heavily contaminated material to be released at high altitude, where the winds can transport them pretty much anywhere. The melt rods eat tru any material and reach and contaminate subterranean waters. That's why everyone was so scared about Chernobyl, and Fukushima (not so long ago).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 07, 2019, 12:13:30 am
      The problem with fission reactors, is that the accidents can have terrible effects in any part of the world. An explosion causes heavily contaminated material to be released at high altitude, where the winds can transport them pretty much anywhere. The melt rods eat tru any material and reach and contaminate subterranean waters. That's why everyone was so scared about Chernobyl, and Fukushima (not so long ago).
      Its the concentration that seriously matters, not what happens when the stuff is thinly spread far from the event. If that mattered we'd have to shut down all the coal power stations, as they put out an enormous amount of radioactive waste.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 07, 2019, 12:29:03 am
      The problem with fission reactors, is that the accidents can have terrible effects in any part of the world. An explosion causes heavily contaminated material to be released at high altitude, where the winds can transport them pretty much anywhere. The melt rods eat tru any material and reach and contaminate subterranean waters. That's why everyone was so scared about Chernobyl, and Fukushima (not so long ago).
      Its the concentration that seriously matters, not what happens when the stuff is thinly spread far from the event. If that mattered we'd have to shut down all the coal power stations, as they put out an enormous amount of radioactive waste.


      You are correct.  The dummies that all said California would become radioactive from all of the radioactive isotopes in the Pacific ocean didn't realize the United States government and UC Berkeley dumped all of their radioactive waste into the Pacific Ocean at the Farallon Islands between 1946 and 1970.  The Farallon Islands are now a National Marine Sanctuary that's radioactive.

      Then look at Chernobyl.  Every year thousands of tourists visit the disaster site every year and the area around the reactor is full of life.  And all of the anti-Nuke folks told us it would be a nuclear wasteland.  (They got that one wrong.) 

      How dangerone is ploutonium?  The anti-Nuke folks say it's the most dangerous substance man has ever created.  And then there's the truth.  In the 1940s people like Albert Stevens were unknowling injected with radioactive plutonium to see what would happen.  What happend is Mr. Stevens lived another 20+ years peeing and pooping radioactive plutonium until the day he died. 

      Someone correct me if I am wrong but the with all of the atomospheric nuclear plutonium bombs we dentonated the entire Earth is coverned in a blanket of plutonium.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 07, 2019, 01:31:22 am
      The problem with fission reactors, is that the accidents can have terrible effects in any part of the world. An explosion causes heavily contaminated material to be released at high altitude, where the winds can transport them pretty much anywhere. The melt rods eat tru any material and reach and contaminate subterranean waters. That's why everyone was so scared about Chernobyl, and Fukushima (not so long ago).
      The Chernobyl accident has been studied in detail for over 30 years now, and we have a lot of scientific data on what actually happened. Worst case estimates say that about a total of 30'000 might die prematurely in Europe because of radioactive particles from Chernobyl (many others like the IAEA and the WHO says it's 4'000). Thankfully such accidents happens very seldom; since the first nuclear reactors were built in the 1940s it has only happened twice (and Fukushima is believed to have less of an health impact than Chernobyl).

      That still sounds really bad! But what many forget is that the alternatives are not without risk either.

      For example, the worst hydro electric dam accident killed ~171000 people.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam)
      That did only affect the country that built the dam though, so you could say it was more local.

      But what about wood stoves? You posted a link before:
      https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2018/overview/ (https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2018/overview/)
      It says that: "In 2016, household and outdoor air pollution led to some 7 million deaths worldwide." (!)
      That air pollution comes from burning and it's killing millions every year. If you replaced that burning with electric power from nuclear we will literally save millions of lives every year all around the world.

      Wood stoves also spread their air-pollution around the world. So does any form of burning, it causes air-pollution which is spread with the wind around the world in the same way the Chernobyl accident spread radioactive particles with the wind.

      That UN page doesn't say how many of the 7 million deaths are cause by wood stoves, but I know a Swedish report that estimate that 900 died prematurely in Sweden because of wood burning. (We have a population of about 10 million). That means that only in Sweden wood burning causes more deaths in 4 - 35 years than the biggest nuclear disaster did worldwide over all time. The same report says that a total of 7600 die every year from air pollution here, and that 3600 of them are caused by air pollution that comes from outside of Sweden (e.g. coal power plants).
      http://naturvardsverket.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1242584/FULLTEXT01.pdf (http://naturvardsverket.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1242584/FULLTEXT01.pdf)

      And then we haven't even considered all the other toxins from coal power plants, like mercury and other heavy metals. Or the problem with ocean acidification (caused by SO2 as well as CO2 from coal power plants). Those effects are also global; it's the reason why ocean tuna contains so much mercury for example, or why the great barrier reef is dying. And then there is climate change, which also affects the entire planet...

      So yes, a nuclear accident can cause pollution in other countries but it is nothing compared to what air pollution from burning does.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 07, 2019, 01:36:58 am
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).


      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      How many liters/m^2 of bio fuel do they produce in a year?
      From this link: https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty) 20 to 25 million gallons. And I assume this is the goal for 2018 so we'll probably know how much they produced soon.
      That doesn't answer the question.
      Oh, I didn't see you wanted to know per surface area. This images says it all:
      (http://poet-dsm.com/resources/images/infographic-acre.jpg)
      Very good.  Thanks
      Assume 80 gal/acre
      I drive 12,000 mi/year
      Assume 25 mi/gallon
      So that's 480 gal/year
      So I need 6 acres of corn land.

      I checked US Energy Information Admin for fuel consumption in the US
      https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10 (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10)
      Quote from the web site
      "How much gasoline does the United States consume?
      In 2017, about 142.98 billion gallons (or about 3.40 billion barrels1) of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, a daily average of about 391.71 million gallons (or about 9.33 million barrels per day)."

      So that is 1.8E9 acres of corn to produce this fuel based on 80 gal/acre. 

      Now Wikepedia tells me that there are 9.6E7 acres of corn in production in the USA. 

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_production_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_production_in_the_United_States)

      So the 96 million acres could produce 0.7% of the fuel for the us. 

      That does not include aircraft or ships.
      Did you remember to compensate for the fact that one gallon of etanol only contains about 45% of the energy of one gallon of gasoline?

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 07, 2019, 02:00:13 am
      People visits chernobyl, but in organized tours. You cannot wander in any place you want, because radiation isn't absorbed the same in different materials. The roads don't have much radiation, and that explains how they can reach the place, but the forest is contaminated, and so are the animals living there. You can read about mutations in them in several websites, such as newspapers, and the like.

      The only thing good about fision, is that there is no direct CO2 emissions, but just what are we going to do with the nuclear waste? Just how much of this thing are we going to stockpile? This junk is so bad, that if some terrorist group get this hands on this, they could easily make a dirty bomb. With enough resources and the correct nuclear waste, even a nuclear bomb. So, the more we have, the more dangerous it is.

      The less nuclear reactors we need to build, the better, but for that we need to generate more from renewable sources.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 07, 2019, 03:17:15 am
      People visits chernobyl, but in organized tours. You cannot wander in any place you want, because radiation isn't absorbed the same in different materials. The roads don't have much radiation, and that explains how they can reach the place, but the forest is contaminated, and so are the animals living there. You can read about mutations in them in several websites, such as newspapers, and the like.
      You can't go into the reactor that exploded of course, but you can go mostly everywhere else. There are people that are living permanently in the exclusion zone, some never left. The wildlife in the exclusion zone is thriving anyone who says otherwise is dishonest at best. Those pictures of mutations are just scaremongering. Mutations occurs naturally everywhere, it is not any more common around Chernobyl than elsewhere today (there might have been a small increase shortly after the accident). Directly after the accident there was a part of a pine forest close to the reactor that were damaged (the needles turned red) but it has long since recovered. They kept operating the other three reactors at the Chernobyl power plant for over a decade after the accident. People went to work there every day (and still do). And yes it is now officially a tourist attraction in the Ukraine I believe.

      but just what are we going to do with the nuclear waste? Just how much of this thing are we going to stockpile?
      We will store it in deep geological deposits, they are building one in Finland now.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onkalo_spent_nuclear_fuel_repository
      There is so little nuclear waste produced that all of the nuclear waste that's been produced in the Netherlands can be stored in a single building:
      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a1/Covra_het_gebouw.JPG

      This junk is so bad, that if some terrorist group get this hands on this, they could easily make a dirty bomb. With enough resources and the correct nuclear waste, even a nuclear bomb.
      People deal with poisonous and dangerous substances at factories all the time.

      Terrorists have much better options than dirty bombs, like flying an airliner into a building.

      Dirty bombs are just more scaremongering. It would be a pain in the *** for the terrorists to get hold of and to deal with it without killing themselves before they even built the bomb. And if they manage to detonate a dirty bomb do you know what would happen? There would be a poof from the explosives, a dust cloud, then nothing. The small area where the dust lands would be evacuated and a people in radiation suits would come and vacuum up most of the dust. No one would die from the small dose you get from the spred out, low concentration dust, (except the terrorist who has been driving around with a truckload of it). Maybe the risk of cancer for a handfull of people increase the next 30 years, but that isn't the kind of damage terrorists want, they want massive instant damage. Like a building full of people collapsing.

      And no, they can't make a bomb. Ask Iran how they are doing with their nuclear weapons program.

      There is so much bullshit when it comes to nuclear power it's ridiculous.

      Nuclear is safer and cleaner than coal power, than wood stoves and water power. We can't replace everything with renewable, we need power also when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. We need either coal or nuclear, and nuclear is way better than coal in every aspect.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 07, 2019, 05:33:03 am
      How do you convert waste plant material to bio fuel?
      I know there are many ideas out there, but is there any factories doing this commercially? (please provide links if so).
      Otherwise I don't see how that is any different than solar storage solutions (better batteries, etc).


      See poet-dsm.com (http://poet-dsm.com) (the DSM part is Dutch) but there are other companies as well who have a working process.

      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      How many liters/m^2 of bio fuel do they produce in a year?
      From this link: https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty) 20 to 25 million gallons. And I assume this is the goal for 2018 so we'll probably know how much they produced soon.
      That doesn't answer the question.
      Oh, I didn't see you wanted to know per surface area. This images says it all:
      (http://poet-dsm.com/resources/images/infographic-acre.jpg)
      Very good.  Thanks
      Assume 80 gal/acre
      I drive 12,000 mi/year
      Assume 25 mi/gallon
      So that's 480 gal/year
      So I need 6 acres of corn land.

      I checked US Energy Information Admin for fuel consumption in the US
      https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10 (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=23&t=10)
      Quote from the web site
      "How much gasoline does the United States consume?
      In 2017, about 142.98 billion gallons (or about 3.40 billion barrels1) of finished motor gasoline were consumed in the United States, a daily average of about 391.71 million gallons (or about 9.33 million barrels per day)."

      So that is 1.8E9 acres of corn to produce this fuel based on 80 gal/acre. 

      Now Wikepedia tells me that there are 9.6E7 acres of corn in production in the USA. 

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_production_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corn_production_in_the_United_States)

      So the 96 million acres could produce 0.7% of the fuel for the us. 

      That does not include aircraft or ships.
      Did you remember to compensate for the fact that one gallon of etanol only contains about 45% of the energy of one gallon of gasoline?

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials)

      Nope. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 07, 2019, 05:36:51 am
      The problem with fission reactors, is that the accidents can have terrible effects in any part of the world. An explosion causes heavily contaminated material to be released at high altitude, where the winds can transport them pretty much anywhere. The melt rods eat tru any material and reach and contaminate subterranean waters. That's why everyone was so scared about Chernobyl, and Fukushima (not so long ago).
      The Chernobyl accident has been studied in detail for over 30 years now, and we have a lot of scientific data on what actually happened. Worst case estimates say that about a total of 30'000 might die prematurely in Europe because of radioactive particles from Chernobyl (many others like the IAEA and the WHO says it's 4'000). Thankfully such accidents happens very seldom; since the first nuclear reactors were built in the 1940s it has only happened twice (and Fukushima is believed to have less of an health impact than Chernobyl).

      That still sounds really bad! But what many forget is that the alternatives are not without risk either.

      For example, the worst hydro electric dam accident killed ~171000 people.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam)
      That did only affect the country that built the dam though, so you could say it was more local.

      But what about wood stoves? You posted a link before:
      https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2018/overview/ (https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2018/overview/)
      It says that: "In 2016, household and outdoor air pollution led to some 7 million deaths worldwide." (!)
      That air pollution comes from burning and it's killing millions every year. If you replaced that burning with electric power from nuclear we will literally save millions of lives every year all around the world.

      Wood stoves also spread their air-pollution around the world. So does any form of burning, it causes air-pollution which is spread with the wind around the world in the same way the Chernobyl accident spread radioactive particles with the wind.

      That UN page doesn't say how many of the 7 million deaths are cause by wood stoves, but I know a Swedish report that estimate that 900 died prematurely in Sweden because of wood burning. (We have a population of about 10 million). That means that only in Sweden wood burning causes more deaths in 4 - 35 years than the biggest nuclear disaster did worldwide over all time. The same report says that a total of 7600 die every year from air pollution here, and that 3600 of them are caused by air pollution that comes from outside of Sweden (e.g. coal power plants).
      http://naturvardsverket.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1242584/FULLTEXT01.pdf (http://naturvardsverket.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1242584/FULLTEXT01.pdf)

      And then we haven't even considered all the other toxins from coal power plants, like mercury and other heavy metals. Or the problem with ocean acidification (caused by SO2 as well as CO2 from coal power plants). Those effects are also global; it's the reason why ocean tuna contains so much mercury for example, or why the great barrier reef is dying. And then there is climate change, which also affects the entire planet...

      So yes, a nuclear accident can cause pollution in other countries but it is nothing compared to what air pollution from burning does.

      Very well said.  And you forgot one other issue with the burning df coal/fossil fuels, every yer they release millions of tons on radioactive isoptopes into the air and our oceans.  The slag heaps from the burned coal are also contain radioactive isotopes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 07, 2019, 06:02:26 am
      People visits chernobyl, but in organized tours. You cannot wander in any place you want, because radiation isn't absorbed the same in different materials. The roads don't have much radiation, and that explains how they can reach the place, but the forest is contaminated, and so are the animals living there. You can read about mutations in them in several websites, such as newspapers, and the like.
      You can't go into the reactor that exploded of course, but you can go mostly everywhere else. There are people that are living permanently in the exclusion zone, some never left. The wildlife in the exclusion zone is thriving anyone who says otherwise is dishonest at best. Those pictures of mutations are just scaremongering. Mutations occurs naturally everywhere, it is not any more common around Chernobyl than elsewhere. Directly after the accident there was a part of a pine forest close to the reactor that were damaged (the needles turned red) but it has long since recovered. They kept operating the other three reactors at the Chernobyl power plant for over a decade after the accident. People went to work there every day (and still do). And yes it is now officially a tourist attraction in the Ukraine I believe.

      but just what are we going to do with the nuclear waste? Just how much of this thing are we going to stockpile?
      We will store it in deep geological deposits, they are building one in Finland now.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onkalo_spent_nuclear_fuel_repository
      There is so little nuclear waste produced that all of the nuclear waste that's been produced in the Netherlands can be stored in a single building:
      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a1/Covra_het_gebouw.JPG

      This junk is so bad, that if some terrorist group get this hands on this, they could easily make a dirty bomb. With enough resources and the correct nuclear waste, even a nuclear bomb.
      People deal with poisonous and dangerous substances at factories all the time.

      Terrorists have much better options than dirty bombs, like flying an airliner into a building.

      Dirty bombs are just more scaremongering. It would be a pain in the *** for the terrorists to get hold of and to deal with it without killing themselves before they even built the bomb. And if they manage to detonate a dirty bomb do you know what would happen? There would be a poof from the explosives, a dust cloud, then nothing. The small area where the dust lands would be evacuated and a people in radiation suits would come and vacuum up most of the dust. No one would die from the small dose you get from the spred out, low concentration dust, (except the terrorist who has been driving around with a truckload of it). Maybe the risk of cancer for a handfull of people increase the next 30 years, but that isn't the kind of damage terrorists want, they want massive instant damage. Like a building full of people collapsing.

      And no, they can't make a bomb. Ask Iran how they are doing with their nuclear weapons program.

      There is so much bullshit when it comes to nuclear power it's ridiculous.

      Nuclear is safer and cleaner than coal power, than wood stoves and water power. We can't replace everything with renewable, we need power also when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. We need either coal or nuclear, and nuclear is way better than coal in every aspect.

      Very well said.  Couple of additional points.  With all of the nuclear weapons which have been decommissioned we currently have a 600 year supply of nuclear fuel.  Since we are not going to use them for bombs nuclear power is really the only other thing we gave a use for the material.  If we don’t use it for nuclear power what are we going to do it he the nuclear material?

      It is amazing how much misinformation about Chernobyl is being spread by hoaxters.  You are right the other reactors continued to be n operation for decade or more with people going to work everyday.

      Interestingly any idea who is exposed to their most ionizing radiation?  It’s not the people living in or around Chernobyl or Fukushima, not riadation workers or astronauts....  It’s smokers.  People who smoke cigarettes are exposed to more ionizing radiation every year than anyone else.

      https://youtu.be/TRL7o2kPqw0
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 07, 2019, 09:32:40 am
      Did you remember to compensate for the fact that one gallon of etanol only contains about 45% of the energy of one gallon of gasoline?

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials)
      You probably looked at Methanol not Ethanol. Ethanol has an energy content of 30MJ versus 44MJ for gasoline. HOWEVER, Ethanol burns cleaner and it also allows for higher compression ratios. The latter make an engine run more efficient so all in all the difference isn't that big.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 07, 2019, 12:26:55 pm
      24 ethanol vs 35.8 MJ/litre for diesel/gasoil, so a tank after a fill up would have 33% less range, which is still much more range than any EV and it's easy peasy to make a tank a smidge bigger.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 07, 2019, 01:11:32 pm
      24 ethanol vs 35.8 MJ/litre for diesel/gasoil, so a tank after a fill up would have 33% less range, which is still much more range than any EV and it's easy peasy to make a tank a smidge bigger.
      Ethanol is much less prone to self detonation (knocking) which means you can get much more power from the same engine. Or alternatively run the engine at a better efficiency (and do further down sizing). All in all the difference is much smaller then you'd expect.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 07, 2019, 03:09:32 pm
      Interestingly any idea who is exposed to their most ionizing radiation?  It’s not the people living in or around Chernobyl or Fukushima, not riadation workers or astronauts....  It’s smokers.  People who smoke cigarettes are exposed to more ionizing radiation every year than anyone else.
      That's a nice video by veritasium but I'm afraid many won't even listen to what he says and think "uh uh that abandoned store/basement and particle filter looks really nasty, and the dosimeter beeped a lot, it must be super dangerous".
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 07, 2019, 03:22:35 pm
      In 60 years of using nuclear power total number of deaths is less than 100. Last major nuclear power disaster there were no deaths.
      That's not true, most estimates range from 3'000-30'000 premature deaths after Chernobyl from the radiation. Although it was less than 100 that died in direct relation to the accident. Still peanuts compared to air pollution and many other things.
      Interesting.   Do you have a reference?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 07, 2019, 03:51:21 pm
      Did you remember to compensate for the fact that one gallon of etanol only contains about 45% of the energy of one gallon of gasoline?

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials)
      You probably looked at Methanol not Ethanol. Ethanol has an energy content of 30MJ versus 44MJ for gasoline. HOWEVER, Ethanol burns cleaner and it also allows for higher compression ratios. The latter make an engine run more efficient so all in all the difference isn't that big.
      Yes, you are right, I must have been too tired when I wrote that.  :-[
      Etanol: 24 MJ/L
      Gasoline 34 MJ/L
      So when comparing volume it's 70% less for ethanol. (30/46 is per mass)
      Using this corn-waste-bio-fuel method you could replace about 0.5% of fuel used in cars today?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 07, 2019, 03:55:36 pm
      Of all those killed by ionizing radiation, most are victims of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Only that those deaths were duly hidden by the USA army.

      http://www.aasc.ucla.edu/cab/200708230009.html (http://www.aasc.ucla.edu/cab/200708230009.html)
      Quote
      At no time during the period between 1943 and 1946 were facilities allotted, or time provided, for the Medical Section of the Manhattan Engineer District to prepare a comprehensive history of its activities. Regulations forbade notetaking. Official records were scanty. There were few charts and photographs.

      [...]

      -Very large numbers of person were crushed in their homes and in the buildings in which they were working. Their skeletons could be seen in the debris and ashes for almost 1,500 meters from the center of the blast, particularly in the downwind directions.

      -Large numbers of the population walked for considerable distances after the detonation before they collapsed and died.

      -Large numbers developed vomiting and bloody and watery diarrhea (vomitus and bloody fecees were found on the floor in many of the aid stations), associated with extreme weakness. They died in the first and second weeks after the bombs were dropped.

      -During this same period deaths from internal injuries and from burns were common. Either the ehat from the fires or infrared radiation from the detonations caused many burns, particularly on bare skin or under dark clothing.

      -After a lull without peak mortality from any special causes, deaths began to occur from purpura, which was often associated with epilation, anemia, and a yellowish coloration of the skin. The so-called bone marrow syndrome, manifested by a low white blood cell count and almost complete absence of the platelets necessary to prevent bleeding,w as probably at its maximum beTween the fourth and sixth weeks after the bombs were dropped.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 07, 2019, 04:16:50 pm
      In 60 years of using nuclear power total number of deaths is less than 100. Last major nuclear power disaster there were no deaths.
      That's not true, most estimates range from 3'000-30'000 premature deaths after Chernobyl from the radiation. Although it was less than 100 that died in direct relation to the accident. Still peanuts compared to air pollution and many other things.
      Interesting.   Do you have a reference?
      Yes!
      For example, 171'000 died in the worst hydro power dam failure:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banqiao_Dam)
      The UN says that "In 2016, household and outdoor air pollution led to some 7 million deaths worldwide." (!) Please note that that is 7 million every year. Hydro dam and nuclear accidents are very rare one time events.
      https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2018/overview/ (https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2018/overview/)
      From Chernobyl:
      "The initial explosion resulted in the death of two workers. Twenty-eight of the firemen and emergency clean-up workers died in the first three months after the explosion from Acute Radiation Sickness and one of cardiac arrest."
      https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/chernobyl/faqs (https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/chernobyl/faqs)
      "A total of up to four thousand people could eventually die of radiation exposure from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant (NPP) accident nearly 20 years ago, an international team of more than 100 scientists has concluded.

      As of mid-2005, however, fewer than 50 deaths had been directly attributed to radiation from the disaster, almost all being highly exposed rescue workers, many who died within months of the accident but others who died as late as 2004."
      https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/chernobyl-true-scale-accident (https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/chernobyl-true-scale-accident)
      But some claim that is an underestimate and come up with numbers closer to 30'000:
      https://allthingsnuclear.org/lgronlund/how-many-cancers-did-chernobyl-really-cause-updated (https://allthingsnuclear.org/lgronlund/how-many-cancers-did-chernobyl-really-cause-updated)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 07, 2019, 04:20:41 pm
      In 60 years of using nuclear power total number of deaths is less than 100. Last major nuclear power disaster there were no deaths.
      That's not true, most estimates range from 3'000-30'000 premature deaths after Chernobyl from the radiation. Although it was less than 100 that died in direct relation to the accident. Still peanuts compared to air pollution and many other things.
      Interesting.   Do you have a reference?

      For number of deaths take a look at Wikipedia.  As for the number of premrute deaths there is no agreeded upon number which is why it’s a range.  There are Russian doctors/Russia government which places the number at .000000001%.  Now we all know we can trust the Russian government.  Ukraininan place the number at over 100,000.  They would not have an agenda, would they? 

      It takes a public heath physician who understands statistics to give us good number.  The 3,000-30,000 is the accepted and agreeded upon number by public health experts around the world.  You will find other estimates but yes are using best cases or worst case estimates plus a god dose of margin of error to make their point.

      No doubt, both accidents are causing premature deaths but then again so do guns and diesel exhaust fumes.  In the US one is far more likely to die prematurely from just a few grams of lead fired from a gun than ionizing radiation from nuclear power plant accident.  n the US one is 2 to 25 times more likely to die premature from lead poisoning than ionizing radiation.  And what’s crazy here n the US is that one or more people die from high speed lead poinsioning as the result of a young kid every week.  We just had another shooting where 3 were killed.  Serbia which has the second most number of guns per person the risk from premature death from high speed lead is nowhere close to the number in the US.

      What’s being calculated are premature deaths.  Ironically we have the tobacco companies to thank for the accuracercy of our calculations.  Had they not been using radioactive polonium as a cheap fertilizer for tobacco crops, millions would not have developed lung cancer and related diseases and died prematurely.

      As Derek demonstrated in the video in his trip to Fukushima and Chernobyl someone who smokes is exposed to far more nuclear ionizing radiation every year than at Fukushima ma or Chernobyl.

      We are all going to die, question is how and when.  Many people in the US as well as other countries already know the answer to tat question when they take their own life.  That number in the US every year is far greater than the number who will die as the result of all nuclear accidents.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 07, 2019, 04:23:55 pm
      Did you remember to compensate for the fact that one gallon of etanol only contains about 45% of the energy of one gallon of gasoline?

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials)
      You probably looked at Methanol not Ethanol. Ethanol has an energy content of 30MJ versus 44MJ for gasoline. HOWEVER, Ethanol burns cleaner and it also allows for higher compression ratios. The latter make an engine run more efficient so all in all the difference isn't that big.
      Yes, you are right, I must have been too tired when I wrote that.  :-[
      Etanol: 24 MJ/L
      Gasoline 34 MJ/L
      So when comparing volume it's 70% less for ethanol. (30/46 is per mass)
      Using this corn-waste-bio-fuel method you could replace about 0.5% of fuel used in cars today?
      Corn is just the start. Other plants like Wheat and Soy are next. The reason corn was choosen probably has to do with POET already using corn to produce Ethanol from so they already had a relationship with corn-farmers. That makes it easier to get the feedstock needed. With a running plant and a demonstrateable business model it will be easier to persuade other farmers to also harvest different parts of their crops for bio-fuel production.
      There are 922 million acres of land used for agriculture in the US. Using a number of 80 gallons per acre that amounts to a potential of 73 billion gallons of bio-fuel per year. This can easely cover the US fuel consumption for cars if the government bans vehicles with a very poor MPG rating. The current average fuel economy of the cars in the US is appallingly bad and can easely be cut by half.

      Bio-fuels are likely to put a nail in the EV's coffin.

      The 3rd generation bio-fuels have been kind of a holy grail for a long time but it seems the last hurdles have been overcome by at least two seperate companies. I like the elegance of the process. Take leftovers from the field which aren't useful for anything else (not even feeding cattle) and use a process very similar to brewing beer to make fuel.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 07, 2019, 04:47:06 pm
      [...]
      In 2016, an estimated 4.2 million people died as a result of high levels of ambient air pollution."

      Ouch

      I doubt that figure very much, but even if it were true, Do you realize how many billion humans aren't starving to death thanks to fossil fuels? Don't you realize that without fossil fuels it's impossible to feed 7 billion people? Can't you imagine what a shitty quality of life we'd have without fossil fuels? You better pray to the gods you do not get to see the end of the fossil fuels because it's not going to be anything nice.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 07, 2019, 04:49:09 pm
      Did you remember to compensate for the fact that one gallon of etanol only contains about 45% of the energy of one gallon of gasoline?

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#Energy_densities_of_common_energy_storage_materials)
      You probably looked at Methanol not Ethanol. Ethanol has an energy content of 30MJ versus 44MJ for gasoline. HOWEVER, Ethanol burns cleaner and it also allows for higher compression ratios. The latter make an engine run more efficient so all in all the difference isn't that big.
      Yes, you are right, I must have been too tired when I wrote that.  :-[
      Etanol: 24 MJ/L
      Gasoline 34 MJ/L
      So when comparing volume it's 70% less for ethanol. (30/46 is per mass)
      Using this corn-waste-bio-fuel method you could replace about 0.5% of fuel used in cars today?
      Corn is just the start. Other plants like Wheat and Soy are next. The reason corn was choosen probably has to do with POET already using corn to produce Ethanol from so they already had a relationship with corn-farmers. That makes it easier to get the feedstock needed. With a running plant and a demonstrateable business model it will be easier to persuade other farmers to also harvest different parts of their crops for bio-fuel production.
      There are 922 million acres of land used for agriculture in the US. Using a number of 80 gallons per acre that amounts to a potential of 73 billion gallons of bio-fuel per year. This can easely cover the US fuel consumption for cars if the government bans vehicles with a very poor MPG rating. The current average fuel economy of the cars in the US is appallingly bad and can easely be cut by half.

      Bio-fuels are likely to put a nail in the EV's coffin.

      The 3rd generation bio-fuels have been kind of a holy grail for a long time but it seems the last hurdles have been overcome by at least two seperate companies. I like the elegance of the process. Take leftovers from the field which aren't useful for anything else (not even feeding cattle) and use a process very similar to brewing beer to make fuel.

      Dude you need to do your research.  The reaso corn was selected is because it is energy dense compared to wheat and soy.  I’m surprised you didn’t mention switchgrass.  If this is the Holy Grail as you say why haven’t venture capitalists, governments and large corporations jumped in to make massive profits?

      Dude use your head.  In one of your last posts from June of 2018 it gave projected outcomes and if I recall a billion gallon goal for Fall.  Well it’s winter now and Fall has passed.  Did they meet projections and the goal of a billion?  NOPE!

      The Holy Grail for bio-fuels is neither holy nor grail.  In your next post please list the recent successes (f there are any) with bio-fuel.  Stop with the marketing projections and estimates.  Give us some real tangible data.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 07, 2019, 04:49:21 pm
      About nuclear waste:

      Quote
      The United States has over 90,000 metric tons of nuclear waste that requires disposal. The U.S. commercial power industry alone has generated more waste (nuclear fuel that is "spent" and is no longer efficient at generating power) than any other country—nearly 80,000 metric tons. This spent nuclear fuel, which can pose serious risks to humans and the environment, is enough to fill a football field about 20 meters deep. The U.S. government’s nuclear weapons program has generated spent nuclear fuel as well as high-level radioactive waste and accounts for most of the rest of the total at about 14,000 metric tons, according to the Department of Energy (DOE). For the most part, this waste is stored where it was generated—at 80 sites in 35 states. The amount of waste is expected to increase to about 140,000 metric tons over the next several decades. However, there is still no disposal site in the United States. After spending decades and billions of dollars to research potential sites for a permanent disposal site, including at the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada that has a license application pending to authorize construction of a nuclear waste repository, the future prospects for permanent disposal remain unclear.

      Current Storage Sites for High-Level Radioactive Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel and Repository with License under Review

      (https://www.gao.gov/assets/690/688135.jpg)

      source: https://www.gao.gov/key_issues/disposal_of_highlevel_nuclear_waste/issue_summary (https://www.gao.gov/key_issues/disposal_of_highlevel_nuclear_waste/issue_summary)

      That's quite a large amount of nuclear crap to me.


      [...]
      In 2016, an estimated 4.2 million people died as a result of high levels of ambient air pollution."

      Ouch

      I doubt that figure very much, but even if it were true, Do you realize how many billion humans aren't starving to death thanks to fossil fuels? Don't you realize that without fossil fuels it's impossible to feed 7 billion people? Can't you imagine what a shitty quality of life we'd have without fossil fuels? You better pray to the gods you do not get to see the end of the fossil fuels because it's not going to be anything nice.
      Look at the source. If you don't trust the UN for some reason, look at the data in another place, if available.
      We can do something about the amount of fossil fuels now, and preserve them for other uses instead of burning them. That requires political commitment, however.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 07, 2019, 04:58:52 pm
      Look at the source. If you don't trust the UN for some reason, look at the data in another place, if available.

      Great... but, many many many more people can live THANKS to the fossil fuels, so what? It's not perfect, but almost. Are you against vaccines too because a small % die when vaccinated?

      Get your priorities right, because fossil fuels do infinitely much more good than bad.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 07, 2019, 05:19:13 pm
      About nuclear waste:

      Quote
      The United States has over 90,000 metric tons of nuclear waste that requires disposal. The U.S. commercial power industry alone has generated more waste (nuclear fuel that is "spent" and is no longer efficient at generating power) than any other country—nearly 80,000 metric tons. This spent nuclear fuel, which can pose serious risks to humans and the environment, is enough to fill a football field about 20 meters deep. The U.S. government’s nuclear weapons program has generated spent nuclear fuel as well as high-level radioactive waste and accounts for most of the rest of the total at about 14,000 metric tons, according to the Department of Energy (DOE). For the most part, this waste is stored where it was generated—at 80 sites in 35 states. The amount of waste is expected to increase to about 140,000 metric tons over the next several decades. However, there is still no disposal site in the United States. After spending decades and billions of dollars to research potential sites for a permanent disposal site, including at the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada that has a license application pending to authorize construction of a nuclear waste repository, the future prospects for permanent disposal remain unclear.

      Current Storage Sites for High-Level Radioactive Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel and Repository with License under Review

      (https://www.gao.gov/assets/690/688135.jpg)

      That's quite a large amount of nuclear crap to me.


      [...]
      In 2016, an estimated 4.2 million people died as a result of high levels of ambient air pollution."

      Ouch

      I doubt that figure very much, but even if it were true, Do you realize how many billion humans aren't starving to death thanks to fossil fuels? Don't you realize that without fossil fuels it's impossible to feed 7 billion people? Can't you imagine what a shitty quality of life we'd have without fossil fuels? You better pray to the gods you do not get to see the end of the fossil fuels because it's not going to be anything nice.
      Look at the source. If you don't trust the UN for some reason, look at the data in another place, if available.
      We can do something about the amount of fossil fuels now, and preserve them for other uses instead of burning them. That requires political commitment, however.

      The map you showed is a compilation.  We’ve been talking about nuclear power.  The map you are showing isn’t that showing nuclear material not only from nuclear power plants, nuclear bombs, medical nuclear waste, and industrial nuclear waste.

      The map is an accurate.  It does not show San Francisco, (Hunters Point) or the Farallon Islands.

      So not exactly sure what the map is and is not indicating.

      In the US we could reprocess the spent nuclear fuel rods, but politically we don’t want to do it.  Same with storage.  We could store it safely, but again the politics gets in the way.

      But let’s be fair about this, we have the same issue with the residue from burned fossil fuels.  Coal slug heaps are radioactive, contain many cancerous compounds and the particulate which gets blown by the wind causing respiratory diseases especially in kids.

      Yes coal and fossil fuels provide has provided us with machines to grow, harvest and transport food.  It keeps us warm.  Allows to to cook food without building a fire and many other conviences including transportation.  I would gladly fly to Europe on a plane in half a day than spend 3 months on a ship powered by the wind.

      But at the same time that same fuel is killing us prematurely.  If you go back 200 years the averag life span was around 35 years.  Up until recently the average life span had doubled no doubt thanks to the use of fossil fuels.  But now our life span is being reduced.  Our children have a shorter life expectancy than we do.  The number one cause of this decline is the burning of fossil fuels.

      The world has changed.  Just as onne England’s energy came from the burning of trees they cut them down and had no more forests and an energy crises.  Fossil fuels to the rescue.

      But now we are realizing fossil fuels are killing us prematurly.  It’s time for a technology change.  Will we ever completely abandon fossil fuels not anytime soon.  But on the other had are you and your family willing to die 5 years prematurely? 




       

       







      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 07, 2019, 05:36:49 pm
      But at the same time that same fuel is killing us prematurely.

      Ok, 4.2 million (*) out of 7500, but, how many would starve to death if we stopped using fossil fuels?

      (*) I don't believe it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 07, 2019, 05:43:13 pm
      But at the same time that same fuel is killing us prematurely.

      Ok, 4.2 million (*) out of 7500, but, how many would starve to death if we stopped using fossil fuels?

      (*) I don't believe it.

      I suspect about the same number if we stopped using synthetic/artificial fertilizers and GMOs.  Thank you Fritz Haber and the Haber-Bosch process and creator of gas warefare in World War I.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 07, 2019, 06:04:08 pm
      But at the same time that same fuel is killing us prematurely.

      Ok, 4.2 million (*) out of 7500, but, how many would starve to death if we stopped using fossil fuels?

      (*) I don't believe it.

      I suspect about the same number if we stopped using synthetic/artificial fertilizers and GMOs.  Thank you Fritz Haber and the Haber-Bosch process and creator of gas warefare in World War I.

      Ok, look at the energy chart here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption

      And tell me where from are you going to obtain the energy you need to synthesize enough liquid fuel to replace oil+gas+carbon? Because to synthesize a litre of fuel that contains X amount of energy, you need to put in X + a bit more of energy. Do you see the renewables in the chart? Tell me, where from?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 07, 2019, 06:15:22 pm
      About nuclear waste:

      Quote
      The United States has over 90,000 metric tons of nuclear waste that requires disposal. The U.S. commercial power industry alone has generated more waste (nuclear fuel that is "spent" and is no longer efficient at generating power) than any other country—nearly 80,000 metric tons. This spent nuclear fuel, which can pose serious risks to humans and the environment, is enough to fill a football field about 20 meters deep. The U.S. government’s nuclear weapons program has generated spent nuclear fuel as well as high-level radioactive waste and accounts for most of the rest of the total

      {...}

      That's quite a large amount of nuclear crap to me.
      I don't think anyone should use nuclear for anything military (but good luck convincing the US, Russia or China of that.)

      The US waste from all their civilian power reactors is "enough to fill a football field about 20 meters deep." That is very little if you consider how much power those nuclear reactors have generated for the people since the 1950s. It is no problem to fit that in a single deep geological repository (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_geological_repository), like the one they are building in Finland (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onkalo_spent_nuclear_fuel_repository).

      The reason it has't been done yet is because anti-nuclear activist keep stalling the process of getting it safety certified. Besides that, the spent fuel can be re-processed for weapons (by large countries spending billions, not terrorists), and for production of radioactive isotopes that are used by doctors (there is apparently a shortage of those). Since the old reactor designs from the 60s are very fuel-inefficient (5%), there is also potential to burn the remaining 95% in more modern types of reactors. So permanently disposing of that "nuclear crap" might actually be considered a waste of valuable resources.

      And again, you forget about comparing it to the alternatives:

      Quote
      When coal is burned it leaves behind a grey powder-like substance known as coal ash. Although the exact chemical composition depends on the type of coal burned, all coal ash contains concentrated amounts of toxic elements, including arsenic, lead, and mercury.

      More than 100 million tons of coal ash and other waste products are produced by coal-fired power plants in the United States every year (see a map here). About a third of that waste is reused in some way (often in concrete); the rest is stored in landfills, abandoned mines, and hazardous, highly toxic ponds.
      https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-and-other-fossil-fuels/coal-water-pollution#bf-toc-1 (https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-and-other-fossil-fuels/coal-water-pollution#bf-toc-1)

      Worrying about nuclear waste is like straining a gnat while swallowing camels.

      Quote
      Recent estimates state that the amount of municipal waste disposed of in US landfills is about 265 million tonnes (261,000,000 long tons; 292,000,000 short tons) as of 2013.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landfills_in_the_United_States (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landfills_in_the_United_States)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 07, 2019, 06:20:31 pm
      But at the same time that same fuel is killing us prematurely.

      Ok, 4.2 million (*) out of 7500, but, how many would starve to death if we stopped using fossil fuels?

      (*) I don't believe it.
      A fine example of "fact resistance" or "denial of knowledge". It's a big problem these days.

      Quote
      • 4.2 million deaths every year as a result of exposure to ambient (outdoor) air pollution
      • 3.8 million deaths every year as a result of household exposure to smoke from dirty cookstoves and fuels
      https://www.who.int/airpollution/en/ (https://www.who.int/airpollution/en/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 07, 2019, 06:43:45 pm
      Premature deaths. But how do you tell apart a normal death from a premature death? I have friends at the WHO and they have told me not to believe everything the WHO says, they have political agendas: bird flu and Tamiflu being a fine example of what I mean. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bird+flu+vaccine+rumsfeld
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 07, 2019, 06:51:42 pm
      I'm not a MD and I can't explain it, but I trust the scientific process. The WHO isn't the only ones producing similar figures. Everyone has a political agenda. The WHO is a international organisation, part of UN and thus owned by all the words nations together. If they were spreading blatant lies then all of the worlds governments would have to be in on it. Not very likely in my opinion.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Red Squirrel on January 07, 2019, 06:57:09 pm
      Look at the source. If you don't trust the UN for some reason, look at the data in another place, if available.

      Great... but, many many many more people can live THANKS to the fossil fuels, so what? It's not perfect, but almost. Are you against vaccines too because a small % die when vaccinated?

      Get your priorities right, because fossil fuels do much more good than bad.

      By that logic we should never have stopped using asbestos in everything, because it was doing a lot of good too, it has lot of uses.

      We should be moving towards replacing fossil fuel with something that is cleaner and still serves the purpose of providing energy.   Ironicly we may need to use fossil fuel in that process (ex: heavy equipment to build solar farms), but eventually the new technology should be self sustainable.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 07, 2019, 07:05:07 pm
      I'm not a MD and I can't explain it, but I trust the scientific process. The WHO isn't the only ones producing similar figures. Everyone has a political agenda. The WHO is a international organisation, part of UN and thus owned by all the words nations together. If they were spreading blatant lies then all of the worlds governments would have to be in on it. Not very likely in my opinion.
      If you want to fully believe that, good for you. I don't.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 07, 2019, 07:16:17 pm
      We should be moving towards replacing fossil fuel with something that is cleaner and still serves the purpose of providing energy.   Ironicly we may need to use fossil fuel in that process (ex: heavy equipment to build solar farms), but eventually the new technology should be self sustainable.

      We should, yes, best is better than good. But don't demonize fossil fuel because 1) it's been and still is a very good thing and 2) we've got nothing better yet.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 07, 2019, 07:17:31 pm
      Premature deaths. But how do you tell apart a normal death from a premature death? I have friends at the WHO and they have told me not to believe everything the WHO says, they have political agendas: bird flu and Tamiflu being a fine example of what I mean. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bird+flu+vaccine+rumsfeld

      It’s statistics and a bit of detective work.   In the 1950s -1970s lung cancer, throat and stomach rates all of a sudden increased dramatically.  Doctors were puzzled.  Was it something in the food, air, exposure during Word War II?  They didn’t have a clue.  Some very smart doctors started comparing notes on patients to see if they could find anything in common.  They did.  All of their patients either smoked ciragetttes or lived in a home with a ciragette smoker.  Thanks to thieir work, we now know how deadly ciragettes are.  Statistically they compared the life expentency of non-smokers with smokers and found smokers on average died years sooner than non-smokers.  And people who smoked and then stopped smoking would live a bit longer than if they continued to smoke but not as long as a non-smoker.

      From 1945 though the 1970s we did experiment after experiment to find out the effects on ionizing radiation.  We have a very good understanding statistically of the dose, exposure and life expectancy.  This is not pseudoscience as the anti-nukes like everyone to beleive.  If it were we would not be able to sucessfully treat cancer patients with nuclear medicine.

      There are paradoxes with ionizing radiation.  One can be exposed to a dose of ionizing radiation of say 20 which would cause cancer in a patient.  But at a dose of 25 it kills the cancer and the patient doesn’t get cancer. 

      On YouTube Vertasium/Derek has a two one hour episodes on the discovery and history of ionizing radiation. Uranium: Twisting the Dragon’s Tale.  This was a PBS show int he US.  5 Stars.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 07, 2019, 07:33:19 pm
      We should be moving towards replacing fossil fuel with something that is cleaner and still serves the purpose of providing energy.   Ironicly we may need to use fossil fuel in that process (ex: heavy equipment to build solar farms), but eventually the new technology should be self sustainable.

      We should, yes, best is better than good. But don't demonize fossil fuel because 1) it's been and still is a very good thing and 2) we've got nothing better yet.

      While I mostly agree with you, for some applications we do have far better solutions than having to use fossil fuels.

      The amazing think about fossil fuels is the energy density.  I think only nuclear fuel is the only energy source which is something on the order of a billion billion more energy dense.  I’ll give you one example where fossil fuels are a poor choice, submariners.  Every heard of a bio-fuels submarine or solar powered submarine?  It’s possible, but would be silly.  Remember all of the submarines in World War II were battery powered.  But ultimately their energy came from fossil fuel.  They had to come to the surface to charge the batteries and for refueling.  Defeats the purpose of having a submarine.  Nuclear power is a much better energy source.  I think they can be operated for 5 to 10 years before needing to be refulled.  It’s the crew that’s the weakness now.  They need  to be refulled every 3 months or so.  Are we working on autonomous nuclear powered submarines? 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on January 07, 2019, 07:56:07 pm
      Premature deaths. But how do you tell apart a normal death from a premature death? I have friends at the WHO and they have told me not to believe everything the WHO says, they have political agendas: bird flu and Tamiflu being a fine example of what I mean. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=bird+flu+vaccine+rumsfeld

      It’s statistics and a bit of detective work.   In the 1950s -1970s lung cancer, throat and stomach rates all of a sudden increased dramatically.  Doctors were puzzled.  Was it something in the food, air, exposure during Word War II?  They didn’t have a clue.  Some very smart doctors started comparing notes on patients to see if they could find anything in common.  They did.  All of their patients either smoked ciragetttes or lived in a home with a ciragette smoker.  Thanks to thieir work, we now know how deadly ciragettes are.  Statistically they compared the life expentency of non-smokers with smokers and found smokers on average died years sooner than non-smokers.  And people who smoked and then stopped smoking would live a bit longer than if they continued to smoke but not as long as a non-smoker.

      From 1945 though the 1970s we did experiment after experiment to find out the effects on ionizing radiation.  We have a very good understanding statistically of the dose, exposure and life expectancy.  This is not pseudoscience as the anti-nukes like everyone to beleive.  If it were we would not be able to sucessfully treat cancer patients with nuclear medicine.

      There are paradoxes with ionizing radiation.  One can be exposed to a dose of ionizing radiation of say 20 which would cause cancer in a patient.  But at a dose of 25 it kills the cancer and the patient doesn’t get cancer. 

      On YouTube Vertasium/Derek has a two one hour episodes on the discovery and history of ionizing radiation. Uranium: Twisting the Dragon’s Tale.  This was a PBS show int he US.  5 Stars. 
       
       


      I don't think the paradoxes are that tough.  There are four things that can happen when a quanta of ionizing radiation passes through a cell.  In decreasing order of likelihood they are:  Nothing, cell death, a non-harmful mutation, and a harmful mutation (cancer).   Also those odds change with whether the cell is currently dividing or not.  So when a cancer patient is being treated with radiation there are several things going on.  The radiation is focused to the extent possible on the cancer, limiting other cells exposure.  The cancer is rapidly dividing so is more vulnerable to the radiation.  And the odds of creating a new cancer are relatively low.  As in almost all current cancer treatments it is a game of killing the cancer while not quite killing the patient.

      Having been through this with multiple family members this is very fresh.  And those treated with radiation were told that they had a higher risk of subsequent cancers due to the radiation treatment.  But they, like most people, choose not having cancer now over a lower risk of cancer later.  In one family members case it resulted in more than two decades of extra life before succumbing to another cancer that may have been related to the radiation treatment.  Or maybe not.  No one really knows the statistics on these things.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 07, 2019, 08:07:51 pm
      There are four things that can happen when a quanta of ionizing radiation passes through a cell.  In decreasing order of likelihood they are:  Nothing, cell death, a non-harmful mutation, and a harmful mutation (cancer).
      There is also a fifth: a beneficial mutation, without mutations there wouldn't be any evolution and life would not exist.

      In one family members case it resulted in more than two decades of extra life before succumbing to another cancer that may have been related to the radiation treatment.  Or maybe not.  No one really knows the statistics on these things.
      Sadly, one out of three people get cancer in their life time, for various reasons. I've already tried it once and it wasn't pleasant. At least medical science is improving and the chance of being cured is getting better.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 07, 2019, 09:30:02 pm
      Look at the source. If you don't trust the UN for some reason, look at the data in another place, if available.

      Great... but, many many many more people can live THANKS to the fossil fuels, so what? It's not perfect, but almost. Are you against vaccines too because a small % die when vaccinated?

      Get your priorities right, because fossil fuels do much more good than bad.

      We can do something about the amount of fossil fuels now, and preserve them for other uses instead of burning them. That requires political commitment, however.
      And seriously, you're jumping to conclusions, assuming things i never said. Fossil fuels helped us, but we reached a point where their effects are getting nasty. Seriously, how many hurricanes need to hit at the same time to get the idea?
      And we can do something about it now. Governments need to build more green power plants, and stop burning fossil fuels to generate electricity. We need them for a lot of other stuff.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 07, 2019, 10:37:31 pm
      About nuclear waste:

      Quote
      The United States has over 90,000 metric tons of nuclear waste that requires disposal. The U.S. commercial power industry alone has generated more waste (nuclear fuel that is "spent" and is no longer efficient at generating power) than any other country—nearly 80,000 metric tons. This spent nuclear fuel, which can pose serious risks to humans and the environment, is enough to fill a football field about 20 meters deep. The U.S. government’s nuclear weapons program has generated spent nuclear fuel as well as high-level radioactive waste and accounts for most of the rest of the total at about 14,000 metric tons, according to the Department of Energy (DOE). For the most part, this waste is stored where it was generated—at 80 sites in 35 states. The amount of waste is expected to increase to about 140,000 metric tons over the next several decades. However, there is still no disposal site in the United States. After spending decades and billions of dollars to research potential sites for a permanent disposal site, including at the Yucca Mountain site in Nevada that has a license application pending to authorize construction of a nuclear waste repository, the future prospects for permanent disposal remain unclear.

      Current Storage Sites for High-Level Radioactive Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel and Repository with License under Review

      [image removed. too big]

      That's quite a large amount of nuclear crap to me.


      [...]
      In 2016, an estimated 4.2 million people died as a result of high levels of ambient air pollution."

      Ouch

      I doubt that figure very much, but even if it were true, Do you realize how many billion humans aren't starving to death thanks to fossil fuels? Don't you realize that without fossil fuels it's impossible to feed 7 billion people? Can't you imagine what a shitty quality of life we'd have without fossil fuels? You better pray to the gods you do not get to see the end of the fossil fuels because it's not going to be anything nice.
      Look at the source. If you don't trust the UN for some reason, look at the data in another place, if available.
      We can do something about the amount of fossil fuels now, and preserve them for other uses instead of burning them. That requires political commitment, however.

      The map you showed is a compilation.  We’ve been talking about nuclear power.  The map you are showing isn’t that showing nuclear material not only from nuclear power plants, nuclear bombs, medical nuclear waste, and industrial nuclear waste.

      The map is an accurate.  It does not show San Francisco, (Hunters Point) or the Farallon Islands.

      So not exactly sure what the map is and is not indicating.

      In the US we could reprocess the spent nuclear fuel rods, but politically we don’t want to do it.  Same with storage.  We could store it safely, but again the politics gets in the way.

      But let’s be fair about this, we have the same issue with the residue from burned fossil fuels.  Coal slug heaps are radioactive, contain many cancerous compounds and the particulate which gets blown by the wind causing respiratory diseases especially in kids.

      Yes coal and fossil fuels provide has provided us with machines to grow, harvest and transport food.  It keeps us warm.  Allows to to cook food without building a fire and many other conviences including transportation.  I would gladly fly to Europe on a plane in half a day than spend 3 months on a ship powered by the wind.
      Well, the map was only there, because it was on the article, but the important stuff was in the article itself. I forgot to put the link to the source, it's from the U.S. Government Accountability Office https://www.gao.gov/key_issues/disposal_of_highlevel_nuclear_waste/issue_summary (https://www.gao.gov/key_issues/disposal_of_highlevel_nuclear_waste/issue_summary) . It says that the graphic shows "Current Storage Sites for High-Level Radioactive Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel and Repository with License under Review". If it's uncomplete, i cannot do much about it. The important part was that "U.S. commercial power industry alone has generated [...] nearly 80,000 metric tons [of nuclear waste]". Just to get an idea of the amount.

      Yes, coal is serious crap. I don't get why is the US still using such a daunting amount of it.
      Still, the level of radioactivity is a lot lower than any spent fuel rod from a nuclear plant (but the ashes from coal can be inhaled, which is as bad as mostly everything else about coal). Spent fuel rods have such a large amount of radioactivity, that they will melt by themselves if not under active cooling. Hell, they will go critical without active cooling. This lasts for at least 5 years, where the spent rod has cooled enough to be put inside a big container made of steel and concrete. Spent fuel rods were a major issue in Fukushima. I didn't knew that spent fuel rods required active cooling before that. It was quite shocking. Take a look at this: https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-power/nuclear-waste/safer-storage-of-spent-fuel#.XDPS_8avFcY (https://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-power/nuclear-waste/safer-storage-of-spent-fuel#.XDPS_8avFcY)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 08, 2019, 01:00:25 am
      80000 tonne isn't much if you consider that is all the waste that has been generated since the 1950s in the US. Compare that to "more than 100 million tons of coal ash and other waste products are produced by coal-fired power plants in the United States every year" Nuclear waste is neither particularly hazardous nor hard to manage relative to other toxic industrial waste.

      Most of that waste is not as dangerous, only 3% is so called high level waste (HLW). There is only about 22 000 m3 HLW in the world:
      Quote
      HLW accounts for just 3% of the volume, but 95% of the total radioactivity of produced waste.
      [...]
      The IAEA estimates that the disposal volume of the current solid HLW inventory is approximately 22,000m3.1 For context, this is a volume roughly equivalent to a three metre tall building covering an area the size of a soccer pitch.
      [...]
      In addition to producing very significant emissions of carbon, hydrocarbon industries also create significant amounts of radioactive waste. The radioactive material produced as a waste product from the oil and gas industry is referred to as 'technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials' (Tenorm). In oil and gas production, radium-226, radium-228, and lead-210 are deposited as scale in pipes and equipment in many parts of the world. Published data show radionuclide concentrations in scales up to 300,000 Bq/kg for Pb-210, 250,000 Bq/kg for Ra-226, and 100,000 Bq/kg for Ra-228. This level is 1000 times higher than the clearance level for recycled material (both steel and concrete) from the nuclear industry, where anything above 500 Bq/kg may not be cleared from regulatory control for recycling.8The largest Tenorm waste stream is coal ash, with around 280 million tonnes arising globally each year, carrying uranium-238 and all its non-gaseous decay products, as well as thorium-232 and its progeny. This ash is usually just buried, or may be used as a constituent in building materials. As such, the same radionuclide, at the same concentration, may be sent to deep disposal if from the nuclear industry, or released for use in building materials if in the form of fly ash from the coal industry.9
      http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/radioactive-waste-management.aspx (http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/radioactive-waste-management.aspx)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 08, 2019, 02:46:22 pm
      80000 tonne isn't much if you consider that is all the waste that has been generated since the 1950s in the US. Compare that to "more than 100 million tons of coal ash and other waste products are produced by coal-fired power plants in the United States every year" Nuclear waste is neither particularly hazardous nor hard to manage relative to other toxic industrial waste.

      Most of that waste is not as dangerous, only 3% is so called high level waste (HLW). There is only about 22 000 m3 HLW in the world:
      Quote
      HLW accounts for just 3% of the volume, but 95% of the total radioactivity of produced waste.
      [...]
      The IAEA estimates that the disposal volume of the current solid HLW inventory is approximately 22,000m3.1 For context, this is a volume roughly equivalent to a three metre tall building covering an area the size of a soccer pitch.
      [...]
      In addition to producing very significant emissions of carbon, hydrocarbon industries also create significant amounts of radioactive waste. The radioactive material produced as a waste product from the oil and gas industry is referred to as 'technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials' (Tenorm). In oil and gas production, radium-226, radium-228, and lead-210 are deposited as scale in pipes and equipment in many parts of the world. Published data show radionuclide concentrations in scales up to 300,000 Bq/kg for Pb-210, 250,000 Bq/kg for Ra-226, and 100,000 Bq/kg for Ra-228. This level is 1000 times higher than the clearance level for recycled material (both steel and concrete) from the nuclear industry, where anything above 500 Bq/kg may not be cleared from regulatory control for recycling.8The largest Tenorm waste stream is coal ash, with around 280 million tonnes arising globally each year, carrying uranium-238 and all its non-gaseous decay products, as well as thorium-232 and its progeny. This ash is usually just buried, or may be used as a constituent in building materials. As such, the same radionuclide, at the same concentration, may be sent to deep disposal if from the nuclear industry, or released for use in building materials if in the form of fly ash from the coal industry.9
      http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/radioactive-waste-management.aspx (http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/radioactive-waste-management.aspx)

      Well, of course that burning coal is crazy. I think that nobody is arguing about that. But that doesn't means that nuclear waste, or nuclear reactors in general are safe. They need a lot of security measures to prevent accidents, but accidents continue to happen. The loss of active cooling was the big problem with the Fukushima disaster in 2011. By resorting to desperate measures they were able to cool the cores and spent fuel pools again, after the series of explosions that damaged the reactors. Today the cleaning and dismantling continues, and estimates are about 40 years to complete. There are 1,130,000 m3 of tritium contaminated water on tanks around the plant. Tritium contamination cannot be removed, and there's still no plans of what to do with it, and this number continues to raise at about 150 m3 per day.

      Why compare against coal, instead of other kinds of power plants?
      And why does the US use so much coal, anyways? Shouldn't they be relying less on that and more on renewables?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 08, 2019, 02:55:35 pm
      The US doesn't seem to care. The west part of the US has quite large concentrations of SO2 in the air over larg areas.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 08, 2019, 02:58:47 pm
      Yes, coal is serious crap. I don't get why is the US still using such a daunting amount of it.
      They are using a lot of energy per person but the percentage of coal used in the US is better than the average in the world. The only reason for using coal is that it is cheap, since coal power don't have to carry all their own costs.

      The US use about 63% fossil fuels for electricity and about half of that is from coal.
      https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3)
      Globally 38% is from coal.
      https://www.iea.org/statistics/electricity/ (https://www.iea.org/statistics/electricity/)

      Why compare against coal, instead of other kinds of power plants?
      I compare against coal since that is the biggest source of electricity. It makes no sense to shut down nuclear power plants as long as there are still coal plants in operation.

      All kinds of burning (coal, gas, wood or other bio-fuels) causes more damage to human health (because of air pollution) than nuclear power, even if there was a major nuclear disaster every year (which there is not). Fukushima is a very serious accident, no doubt about that, but it's not believed to be worse than Chernobyl. We know today after more than 30 years of research what the consequences of Chernobyl is. If you compare that to the problem with air pollution, which according to the UN causes 7 million deaths every year it is clear nuclear is one of the safest methods of generating electricity. Air pollution comes mainly from burning. As I showed before, over a period of 30 years domestic wood stoves in Sweden kill more people than the Chearnobyl disaster did globally, and Sweden only has a population of 10 million. (Wood ash can also be pretty toxic by the way).

      Solar is slightly safer and cleaner than nuclear I believe [although there are those who claim more people die from falling down from roofs when maintaining solar panels than from nuclear (per generated watt)]. Unfortunately wind and solar can not be used to replace energy from burning completely, because solar and wind does not produce energy when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing. Therefore we still need an alternative and the safest and most environmentally friendly alternative is nuclear.

      Wind and solar also only produce electricity, while in many parts of the world we need a lot of heat during the winters, and nuclear can be used for district heating. Today, because people are so irrationally scared of radiation, the heat from nuclear power plants is often just dumped in the ocean.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 08, 2019, 04:47:01 pm
      There are 1,130,000 m3 of tritium contaminated water on tanks around the plant. Tritium contamination cannot be removed, and there's still no plans of what to do with it, and this number continues to raise at about 150 m3 per day.


      Tritium is easy to deal with, all we have to do is nothing and wait.  In two more years half of it will be gone.  And in another 12 years half of that will be gone.  Shortly after that there won’t be enougj left to worry about as it will have decayrd away.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 08, 2019, 05:11:09 pm
      You could do electrolysis of the water and release the hydrogen into the atmosphere, it will quickly rise to the top of the atmosphere and then leave earth. Probably a waste of energy though. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 08, 2019, 05:53:51 pm
      You could do electrolysis of the water and release the hydrogen into the atmosphere, it will quickly rise to the top of the atmosphere and then leave earth. Probably a waste of energy though.

      Only problem with that is the H3 would probably react with molecules in the atmosphere.  Instead of acid rain we could have tritium ran.  But you know than might not be a bad idea and could save electricty by glowing during the night.

      Wasn’t it the Soviet Union who used Trittium and Phospherous based paint in tunnels, pill boxes and gun implacments to provide a source of light at all times without the need for electricity? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 08, 2019, 07:44:52 pm
      There are 1,130,000 m3 of tritium contaminated water on tanks around the plant. Tritium contamination cannot be removed, and there's still no plans of what to do with it, and this number continues to raise at about 150 m3 per day.


      Tritium is easy to deal with, all we have to do is nothing and wait.  In two more years half of it will be gone.  And in another 12 years half of that will be gone.  Shortly after that there won’t be enougj left to worry about as it will have decayrd away.
      Well, it seems to be considered a problem to deal with, so i assume there are other issues.
      It takes 24 years to completely "die" on it's own right? At the current 150 m3 rate, that means that they need to almacenate 1,314,000 m3, plus whatever they have from the time it was leaking more water.
      They were considering dumping it to the sea (it seems that this stuff is considered acceptable in certain concentrations), but apparently the system that was supposed to clean everything but tritium is leaving some much more persistent radioactive stuff in the water, so i don't think that it will be going anywhere until they fix that: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/08/19/national/alps-system-fukushima-no-1-plant-failing-remove-tritium-toxic-cooling-water/#.XDTyvmnfeUk (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/08/19/national/alps-system-fukushima-no-1-plant-failing-remove-tritium-toxic-cooling-water/#.XDTyvmnfeUk)
      The lesson seems to be that natural disasters and nuclear reactors don't mix well. At least we got lucky, and no more tsunamis had hit the zone.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 08, 2019, 07:52:43 pm
      You could do electrolysis of the water and release the hydrogen into the atmosphere, it will quickly rise to the top of the atmosphere and then leave earth. Probably a waste of energy though.

      Only problem with that is the H3 would probably react with molecules in the atmosphere.  Instead of acid rain we could have tritium ran.  But you know than might not be a bad idea and could save electricty by glowing during the night.

      Wasn’t it the Soviet Union who used Trittium and Phospherous based paint in tunnels, pill boxes and gun implacments to provide a source of light at all times without the need for electricity? 

      That sounds like it would be bad, although, I wounder how much of the 3H2 would react before it reached beyond the troposphere. Probably not enough that it would matter. (EDIT, just to make sure no one misunderstands: it wasn't a serious suggestion in case someone thinks so, I'm sure they know what they are doing around there.)

      They still make radioluminescent paint and gadgets with tritium. Apparently tritium costs $30000 per kg (https://interestingengineering.com/the-10-most-expensive-materials-on-earth).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 08, 2019, 08:10:13 pm
      You could do electrolysis of the water and release the hydrogen into the atmosphere, it will quickly rise to the top of the atmosphere and then leave earth. Probably a waste of energy though.

      Only problem with that is the H3 would probably react with molecules in the atmosphere.  Instead of acid rain we could have tritium ran.  But you know than might not be a bad idea and could save electricty by glowing during the night.

      Wasn’t it the Soviet Union who used Trittium and Phospherous based paint in tunnels, pill boxes and gun implacments to provide a source of light at all times without the need for electricity? 

      That sounds like it would be bad, although, I wounder how much of the H32 would react before it reached beyond the troposphere. Probably not enough that it would matter.

      They still make radioluminescent paint and gadgets with tritium. Apparently tritium costs $30000 per kg (https://interestingengineering.com/the-10-most-expensive-materials-on-earth).

      Half life of Trittium is just over 12 years.  In a few years it will have been 12 years since the accident so if all of the Trittium was created the year of the accident only half would be left.  And in aother 12 years it will be one quarter.  I am making the assumption here no new Trittium is being created as a result of the decay of other isotopes.

      Interestingly plutonium bombs have to be serviced every so often because due to radioactive decay.  If not serviced the war head becomes contaminated with enough Helium (from the decay) to make the bomb a dud.

      Ideally would we all want to be driving around in nuclear powered cars?  I know the US and Russians both worked on nuclear powered planes and missies.  The Russians were successful but they had one problem the crews and passengers would get radiation sickeness and die.  Not exactly a very good business model.
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 08, 2019, 08:17:26 pm
      The lesson seems to be that natural disasters and nuclear reactors don't mix well. At least we got lucky, and no more tsunamis had hit the zone.
      Absolutely. The tsunami directly killed more than 15000 people and cost over $360 billions in damages. That tsunami was 40 meter high at some places. They have tsunami walls in Japan that protect cities, and they had that at Fukushima as well, but they were too low in this case. It is the same with hydro electric dams. If such a dam fails because of an earthquake or a meteorite several thousands living downstream will die.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 08, 2019, 08:25:50 pm
      The lesson seems to be that natural disasters and nuclear reactors don't mix well. At least we got lucky, and no more tsunamis had hit the zone.
      Absolutely. The tsunami directly killed more than 15000 people and cost over $360 billions in damages. That tsunami was 40 meter high at some places. They have tsunami walls in Japan that protect cities, and they had that at Fukushima as well, but they were too low in this case. It is the same with hydro electric dams. If such a dam fails because of an earthquake or a meteorite several thousands living downstream will die.


      Are you sure the tsunami was 40 meter high?  Seems much too high for a tsunami wave.
       Thought the power plant survived the tsunami with no problem.  Wasn’t the real cause of the meltdown no electricity to power the pumps?  The fuel tanks for the pumps were flooded and the fuel floated away.  If they only would have built the fuel tanks on the hill behind the power plant there would have been any disaster. This was not a fault with the design or operation of the reactor, but the back-up systems.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 08, 2019, 09:17:47 pm
      The nature of tsunamis is such that they are very low out at sea, hardly noticeable, but rise dramatically when they reach shallow waters.
      Quote
      This height is deemed the record in Japan historically, as of reporting date, that exceeds 38.2 metres (125 ft) from the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku earthquake.[166] It was also estimated that the tsunami reached heights of up to 40.5 metres (133 ft) in Miyako in Tōhoku's Iwate Prefecture. The inundated areas closely matched those of the 869 Sanriku tsunami.[167]
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami

      I don't know how high it was at Fukushima but their tsunami walls weren't enough and the entire plant was flooded. That flood (somehow, maybe because they lost the fuel?) knocked out all the backup generators for the cooling systems. I believe either the earthquake (which was the fourth most powerful earthquake ever recorded) or the tsunami or both also damaged containment. I haven't read that much about it yet because I think its still too early to evaluate, especially since the Japanese government kept underestimating the damages, at least in the beginning.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on January 08, 2019, 10:45:54 pm
      The Fukashima incident is a very telling illustrator of the irrational fear of nuclear.  Fifteen thousand people are killed and no one goes around saying you can never build or live near a coastline again.  But a few people may die a few years earlier because of the radiation from the nuclear element of the disaster and there are people all over saying nuclear power should be eliminated.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on January 08, 2019, 11:33:16 pm
      Are you sure the tsunami was 40 meter high?  Seems much too high for a tsunami wave.
       Thought the power plant survived the tsunami with no problem.  Wasn’t the real cause of the meltdown no electricity to power the pumps?  The fuel tanks for the pumps were flooded and the fuel floated away.  If they only would have built the fuel tanks on the hill behind the power plant there would have been any disaster. This was not a fault with the design or operation of the reactor, but the back-up systems.
      Tsunamis have a thing called "run up".  As the modest tsunami wave approaches shore, where the water depth decreases, the size of the wave increases.  This can be seen at any seashore, where the modest waves at a distance become big surfing waves near shore.  I'm not sure about the 40m, but they certainly got close to 30 m at the plant.

      The plant came through the earthquake with modest damage, they scram the reactor and start shutting down with any significant quake.  They did lose grid power, as some of the high tension pylons fell over near the plant.  They had everything heading toward a normal shutdown when the tsunami hit, and flooded the basement of the main building.  Where did they have all the critical electrical equipment and most of the Diesel generators?  In the basement!  The tsunami also flooded a massive seawater pump motor that was right on the sea dock of the plant, just a couple m above normal sea level.  This provided "ultimate sink" cooling water for the entire plant as well as practically all of the Diesel generators.  They DID have one air-cooled generator, but it also got flooded.  They had one Diesel above the flood, but it was cooled by seawater, which became unavailable when the pump flooded.

      Other than plant #1, the oldest, all these plants had "Tenney turbines" which could run off the residual heat of radioactive decay generating steam to condense the steam on a rooftop cooling tower, and pump it back into the reactor.  But, this RCIC (residual cooling isolation cooler) system required 120 V DC power to keep valves open, and was to be cycled on and off to provide a specific cool-down rate to not stress the reactor pressure vessel.  They actually stole batteries out of people's cars to try to keep the 120 V DC system up, but eventually ran out of charged batteries.  The amount of power needed for this was a couple hundred Watts, one tiny consumer-sized gas generator and suitable charger would have been enough to keep this system up for as long as needed to get to safe shutdown.  But, nobody thought of that!

      Plant #1 was a goner within an hour of the power outage, as it had no way to get rid of residual heat with the main cooling loop not working.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 09, 2019, 12:57:20 am
      Looks like I was wrong....

      The tsunami waves reached run-up heights (how far the wave surges inland above sea level) of up to 128 feet (39 meters) at Miyako city and traveled inland as far as 6 miles (10 km) in Sendai. The tsunami flooded an estimated area of approximately 217 square miles (561 square kilometers) in Japan. I know when the tsunami wave hit San Francisoc

      The largest tsunami wave was in 1958 in Alaska at a height of 524 m / 1,720 feet.  Never knew they could get that tall.  Care to guess how many people were killed?  5

      When the tsunami from Japan reached Californa the was was measured in inches in San Francisco Bay and at 20 feet in Santa Cruz some 75 miles to the south.   That Alaskan tsunami wave woudl have been nearly twice as high as the tallest point in San Francisco.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on January 09, 2019, 05:13:03 am
      Why Tesla receives such criticism in the videos?

      Because Telsa concentrate on only one part of the business.  Their after-sale and parts available (and used Tesla purchase programs) are utter and complete crap.  You can find dozens and dozens of people waiting months for simple parts, or in this case, the purchase of a used certified pre-owned Tesla that has taken 2+ months and counting (and this to a guy who has a big Tesla following)

      The lack of dealing with the rest of the business will be Tesla's downfall.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ro6kpKlw0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ro6kpKlw0)

      And here's his update
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgMTx_xFezM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgMTx_xFezM)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 09, 2019, 11:00:22 am
      boffin  Why do you think this is a Tesla thing?  We know Ford, VW, Mercedes, Cheverlot/GM, Volvo all treat customers like shit. Tesla is far from being Number 1 when it comes to treating customers like crap.  I think

      it’s a neck and neck race between VW, Ford, Mercedes, and GM/Cheverlot for being the worst.  Mercedes was in the lead, but VW came on strong when it dieselgate, making monkey inhale diesel exhaust, and selling pre-production test cars to customers as new.  But then Ford came along strong with their defective transmissions, exploding cars whch burned people to death, and then tried to lawsuits to blame the driver and lost.  But then agin it was GM/Cheverlot who after acccpeting US tax payer money to bail them out is now screwing every single tax paxer in the United States by “Right Sizing” or closing car assembly plants and unemploying thousands.

      At least this guy is alive.  Yes he’s out $2,500 and has been inconvenienced, but what car company hasn’t?

      I will say when I watch his videos I have to wonder if ther’s part of the story he’s not telling us which is making Tesla look worse then they actually are.  I wonder if he’s doing this to profit from YouTube likes?

      I know I watched another Tesla YouTube video where a guy said he purchased a used Tesla and was left stranded 200 mile from home after getting the car serviced by Tesla for free.  Turns out the guy purchased a salvaged car, (a car that was totaled by the insurance company and Tesla) and expected Tesla to fix it for free.  Not saying something similar is gong on with this guy, but one has to ask.   

      https://youtu.be/n6Sf92Ejy14

      https://youtu.be/RCyJchRXfF8

      https://youtu.be/8CTyRUZjF5Y


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 09, 2019, 12:01:53 pm
      boffin  I did some research on the guy making the videos.  You do realize he has an agenda.  He has a kickstarter fund and is trying to launch a business that’s in competition with Tesla.  The success of his business from what I can tell is to make Tesla look bad.

      I watched another one of his videos where he said he has to ewplace the 12v battery in his Tesla every year.  Something doesn’t sound right already.  Then he’s complaining because he purchased a Tesla which had been in sea water, (think massive corrosion) for $15,000.  The car was totaled by the insurance company and Tesla yesterday he Frankensteined from other totaled Tesla’s and got one running.  Then he complains that some of the electrical parts on the car do not work reliably.  Duh, the thing was in corroding in salt water.

      Look I’, not saying people aren’t having issues with Tesla but they are with Mercedes, VW, Ford, GM, Volvo and many other car companies.  This guy appears to be on a mission to make a profit from Tesla looking bad. If you look on YouTube you can find many people who have owned a driven a Tesla for years and are very satisfied.  Fact still remains people are still buying Teslas and some are buying their second, third or fourth Tesla.  So until people quit buying Teslas, Tesla will be around.

      One has to ask do you have an anti-Tesla agenda?  Sure seems like it.  Being on this forum I would think you are into innovation.  Elon could have retired with his billions years ago.  But instead he’s doing what many others have tried and failed, taking on the big car manufactuers.  Crud man, give the guy credit he’s done it and is still in business.  Like all startups he’s struggling.  But the fact remains he’s done it and has been successful.  Heck with the new CEO of Ford saying they want to be like Tesla in the cuter says it all.   Don’t know of any company that’s saying we want to be like VW, Ford or GM.  Give the guy credit he deserves for singlehanded taking on some of the largest and most powerful companies in the world.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 09, 2019, 12:12:24 pm
      Elon is a loudmouth and youtube is also full of vidjeos of tesla owners that have been pissed off in one way or another by Tesla.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 09, 2019, 01:07:57 pm
      Elon is a loudmouth and youtube is also full of vidjeos of tesla owners that have been pissed off in one way or another by Tesla.

      Be fair...  Elon is a drug smoking loaf mouth.  There are just as many pissed off people posting on YouTube as their are people who love their Tesla.   But that true for any make of car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 09, 2019, 02:07:38 pm
      The Fukashima incident is a very telling illustrator of the irrational fear of nuclear.  Fifteen thousand people are killed and no one goes around saying you can never build or live near a coastline again.  But a few people may die a few years earlier because of the radiation from the nuclear element of the disaster and there are people all over saying nuclear power should be eliminated.
      Indeed, the 2004 tsunami in the indian ocean: 227,898 dead. Clearly insanity to stay more than 1 km from the ocean. And how can anyone choose to live in places where hurricanes strike every other year?

      People happily light coal fires in their backyard every summer, drive around in lethal gas powered juggernauts while at the same time demanding nuclear power plants be shut down and replaced with coal power plants. It's madness.  :-//
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 09, 2019, 02:12:53 pm
      Soon-ish self driving taxis (robotaxis) will begin taking over and in a not too distant future most people won't own their own car but just use an app on their phone to call for a cab which then will take them anywhere. That means it will be the fleet operators that decide which type of fuel they will use and for the most part it makes more economic sense for them to have electric vehicles. Range is less of a problem then, you might have to switch car once or twice if you are making a long journey, but that is not so bad.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 09, 2019, 04:42:46 pm
      Soon-ish self driving taxis (robotaxis) will begin taking over and in a not too distant future most people won't own their own car but just use an app on their phone to call for a cab which then will take them anywhere. That means it will be the fleet operators that decide which type of fuel they will use and for the most part it makes more economic sense for them to have electric vehicles. Range is less of a problem then, you might have to switch car once or twice if you are making a long journey, but that is not so bad.

      With driverless being in our soon-ish future for the last 50 years I am sure you are correct.  But what are we going to put in our garages if we have two and three car garage homes?  Ahh, the flying cars which for the past 70 years everybody be flying soon to avoid all of the traffic on the roads.

      The Luddites in Arizona are doing all they can to turn soonish to never sh by throwing rocks and bottles at the test cars.  And slashing tires when they can.  They found when they do this they don’t get yelled at or shot by the autonomous driver.

      I would sure like to hear how these self driving cars do with real driving conditions and just not clear days in Arizona.  How do they do in the snow when the rods are covered in slush, mud, snow or one of those Arizona sandstorms?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 09, 2019, 04:49:59 pm
      The Luddites in Arizona are doing all they can to turn soonish to never sh by throwing rocks and bottles at the test cars.  And slashing tires when they can.  They found when they do this they don’t get yelled at or shot by the autonomous driver.
      Are they Luddites? They say they do these things because they get so pissed off by the erratic behaviour the automated cars frequently display.
      I would sure like to hear how these self driving cars do with real driving conditions and just not clear days in Arizona.  How do they do in the snow when the rods are covered in slush, mud, snow or one of those Arizona sandstorms?
      Current automated cars are heavily geofenced. They won't go where their extremely detailed maps can't currently take them, and they are only being operated in places which never experience snow. They have issues with rain, fog, and presumably sandstorms. I assume a migration from LIDAR to (LWIR)DAR would help with the fog and rain, but I doubt it would fix sandstorm or snow issues.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 09, 2019, 05:20:10 pm
      With driverless being in our soon-ish future for the last 50 years I am sure you are correct.  But what are we going to put in our garages if we have two and three car garage homes?

      Ahh, the flying cars which for the past 70 years everybody be flying soon to avoid all of the traffic on the roads.
      Really, I never heard anyone talk seriously about driverless until after Stanley won the DARPA grand challenge in 2006 (driving on dirt roads in the desert btw).

      If by flying cars one means self flying aircraft, the technology already exist. It's simpler to program than a car since you don't have to deal with pedestrians and contradictory traffic rules. If one can make a business out of it is another question.

      The Luddites in Arizona are doing all they can to turn soonish to never sh by throwing rocks and bottles at the test cars.  And slashing tires when they can.  They found when they do this they don’t get yelled at or shot by the autonomous driver.
      They might get yelled at by the passengers, and ehm, since it's in the US they might even get shot I suppose.

      I would sure like to hear how these self driving cars do with real driving conditions and just not clear days in Arizona.  How do they do in the snow when the rods are covered in slush, mud, snow or one of those Arizona sandstorms?
      I don't think they can do snow yet but rain is not a problem anymore. It's not that it is impossible to drive without super detailed maps, it's just that it's safer and possible so that's what they do. Of course they are introduced where it's easiest first.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on January 09, 2019, 11:27:38 pm
      I have never understood why driving in snow is a requirement for a self driving car.  It is clear that a huge percentage of human drivers can't.  And a huge percentage of those don't realize their incompetence, and go ahead and drive anyway.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 10, 2019, 12:46:56 am
      Really, I never heard anyone talk seriously about driverless until after Stanley won the DARPA grand challenge in 2006 (driving on dirt roads in the desert btw).

      Where haver you been for the past 70 years?

      https://youtu.be/F2iRDYnzwtk (https://youtu.be/F2iRDYnzwtk) 

      If by flying cars one means self flying aircraft, the technology already exist. It's simpler to program than a car since you don't have to deal with pedestrians and contradictory traffic rules. If one can make a business out of it is another question.

      No, no no  There were many flying cars.   Cars that would actually fly. 


      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ocvNxjN3dc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ocvNxjN3dc)


      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhTIHKMmNzk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhTIHKMmNzk)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 10, 2019, 03:27:29 am
      The gas turbine and juice dispenser was a bit silly but didn't I spot a gps navigator, two way radio and on-demand tv?  :)

      Their auto pilot seemed to be more like Tesla cruise control though, more primitive than that since it required a separate specialised road. Same with the second video, it relied on special markings in the road, so more like line following robots. If there were special roads and special rules for self driving cars it would be much easier to implement.

      I suppose people have been dreaming about self driving cars for a long time, but there haven't really been anyone investing a lot of money into building something that's commercially available.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 10, 2019, 03:59:17 am
      The gas turbine and juice dispenser was a bit silly but didn't I spot a gps navigator, two way radio and on-demand tv?  :)

      Their auto pilot seemed to be more like Tesla cruise control though, more primitive than that since it required a separate specialised road. Same with the second video, it relied on special markings in the road, so more like line following robots. If there were special roads and special rules for self driving cars it would be much easier to implement.

      I suppose people have been dreaming about self driving cars for a long time, but there haven't really been anyone investing a lot of money into building something that's commercially available.

      In 1971 we had turn by turn voice navigation.   Don't you remember?

      https://youtu.be/KliWHCzE16c


      https://youtu.be/KliWHCzE16c



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 10, 2019, 06:45:00 am
      I have never understood why driving in snow is a requirement for a self driving car.  It is clear that a huge percentage of human drivers can't.  And a huge percentage of those don't realize their incompetence, and go ahead and drive anyway.
      You clearly have not visited places like Finland in the winter.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on January 10, 2019, 06:56:24 am
      I have never understood why driving in snow is a requirement for a self driving car.  It is clear that a huge percentage of human drivers can't.  And a huge percentage of those don't realize their incompetence, and go ahead and drive anyway.
      You clearly have not visited places like Finland in the winter.

      I was born in snow country and have driven in snow a lot.  My point wasn't that it is never necessary to drive in snow, only to question why self driving cars have to be better than human drivers.  Here in the US every time it snows the news channels are filled with pictures of people driving into ditches, spinning around corners, driving into the backs of strings of stopped traffic and the like.  That happens in the heart of snow country and is perhaps worse in regions that only intermittently or rarely get snow.
      Maybe that doesn't happen in Finland, and if not it might make sense to ban self driving cars at their current state of development from Finland.

      By my understanding self driving cars are far better at skid control and braking than humans already, but readily agree that there are real issues with road location, obstacle location and avoidance and even the judgement of when it is just not safe to go out in current generation autopilots. Whether they are better than humans in general is debatable.  Certainly a good human driver is better, but in spite of polls that indicate that three quarters or more of human drivers consider themselves to be better than average, the truth is that a great many of them aren't just below average, but way below average.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 10, 2019, 07:04:24 am
      What’s the indifference between and above average driver, average driver, below average driver and a way below average driver?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on January 10, 2019, 12:22:12 pm
      What’s the indifference between and above average driver, average driver, below average driver and a way below average driver?

      Insurance rates might be the best metric.  Driving tests are another.  You don't have to get a perfect score to get a driver's licence, at least here in the US.  Nor do you have to demonstrate that you can still pass after a few years have gone by.

      In any case we allow those below average drivers on the road.  Why shouldn't we allow an autopilot with the same below average skills?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 10, 2019, 02:47:04 pm
      What’s the indifference between and above average driver, average driver, below average driver and a way below average driver?

      Insurance rates might be the best metric.  Driving tests are another.  You don't have to get a perfect score to get a driver's licence, at least here in the US.  Nor do you have to demonstrate that you can still pass after a few years have gone by.

      In any case we allow those below average drivers on the road.  Why shouldn't we allow an autopilot with the same below average skills?

      Makes sense.  In the US drivers test is binary, you either pass or fail.  By law unlicensed drives are not given the privilege to drive. 

      But your right the above, below and average is an insurance thing based on number of ticket and accidents.  My insurance company based on my driving record places me in the kamikaze category.
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Neilm on January 10, 2019, 07:48:29 pm
      I have never understood why driving in snow is a requirement for a self driving car.  It is clear that a huge percentage of human drivers can't.  And a huge percentage of those don't realize their incompetence, and go ahead and drive anyway.

      There was a video posted the other day of a Tesla in autopilot that hit a patch of ice. It controlled and recoved the subsiquent skid apparently all by itself.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLpxYuchB8&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLpxYuchB8&feature=youtu.be)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 10, 2019, 08:17:46 pm
      I have never understood why driving in snow is a requirement for a self driving car.  It is clear that a huge percentage of human drivers can't.  And a huge percentage of those don't realize their incompetence, and go ahead and drive anyway.
      You clearly have not visited places like Finland in the winter.
      I was born in snow country and have driven in snow a lot.  My point wasn't that it is never necessary to drive in snow, only to question why self driving cars have to be better than human drivers.  Here in the US every time it snows the news channels are filled with pictures of people driving into ditches, spinning around corners, driving into the backs of strings of stopped traffic and the like.
      That is more likely due to lack of training. Teach people how to drive properly and you'll have less accidents. Driving on a slippery course is mandatory to pass the driver's exam in Finland. I've been in a taxi in Helsinki a couple of times during the winter. 9 out of 10 taxi drivers skid sideways through a turn with 2 or more lanes of traffic on a road covered with a layer of ice. Talking about vehicle control!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on January 10, 2019, 09:46:30 pm

      There was a video posted the other day of a Tesla in autopilot that hit a patch of ice. It controlled and recoved the subsiquent skid apparently all by itself.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLpxYuchB8&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLpxYuchB8&feature=youtu.be)
      I DO NOT believe it!  That was somebody swinging the dashcam around.  The car did not swerve.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 10, 2019, 09:56:37 pm

      There was a video posted the other day of a Tesla in autopilot that hit a patch of ice. It controlled and recoved the subsiquent skid apparently all by itself.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLpxYuchB8&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLpxYuchB8&feature=youtu.be)
      I DO NOT believe it!  That was somebody swinging the dashcam around.  The car did not swerve.
      Agreed. Given the maximum angle the car would have to spun around. Also look at the wipers. These are not in the same position during filming so there is the proof the camera was moved and not the car. FAKE!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 10, 2019, 10:41:49 pm
      You guys are in denial ;D

      Googles prototype cars had better control than most human drivers already a decade ago. Waymo are polishing the user experience right now before they launch for the public in Phoenix, and after that it's just a matter of time before they launch in other places. They don't have any competition so they are taking their time making sure everything goes smoothly and safely. As for driving in snow, I don't see why they can not make that work eventually, it's just that the cars were developed in California and not in Sweden/Finland, we will have to wait a bit longer over here.

      There exist much better videos showing the car doing trick driving, but for some reason this was the best I could find now:
      https://youtu.be/bp9KBrH8H04?t=142
      And that was eight years ago.

      (Tesla isn't autonomous, it's fancy cruise control, much simpler in comparison. Waymo are the only ones with a working system.)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 11, 2019, 01:58:01 am
      I don't see why they can not make that work eventually, it's just that the cars were developed in California and not in Sweden/Finland, we will have to wait a bit longer over here.
      Google cars only drive where their high resolution maps exist, and can be correlated with the world around the car in real time. When it snows, and the world around changes, they can't function. This is a problem they will probably deal with eventually, but right now its something that haven't even tried to address. They are trying to address the low hanging fruit first, which makes an enormous amount of sense.
      There exist much better videos showing the car doing trick driving, but for some reason this was the best I could find now:
      https://youtu.be/bp9KBrH8H04?t=142
      And that was eight years ago.
      Are you really going to use stunts performed on a highly controlled circuit as an example of their prowess in automated driving? Its really not that hard to do. 99% of the automated driving problem is achieving safe free range driving.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 11, 2019, 03:08:44 am
      I don't see why they can not make that work eventually, it's just that the cars were developed in California and not in Sweden/Finland, we will have to wait a bit longer over here.
      Google cars only drive where their high resolution maps exist, and can be correlated with the world around the car in real time. When it snows, and the world around changes, they can't function. This is a problem they will probably deal with eventually, but right now its something that haven't even tried to address. They are trying to address the low hanging fruit first, which makes an enormous amount of sense.
      Yes, I know how they work. They can obviously handle a fairly large amount of change or else they wouldn't be able to drive anywhere. The environment changes constantly. They have driven autonomously on public roads for over 10 million miles (https://waymo.com/ontheroad/) now. Since they developed the cars in California they just haven't had to deal with snow during r&d before. Since it never snows in large parts of the world they don't have to wait and fix that before they can launch either. But I don't see why snow should be too hard for them, and certainly not a showstopper. (At least under conditions that human drivers can also handle safely).

      I assure you it's something they have tried to adress by now and are working on as we speak. How far they have gotten is anyone's guess, since they have long since clammed up about details.

      Actually I see now that they are officially testing in Michigan since over a year back and "Waymo has been doing cold-weather tests since 2012": https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/waymo-starts-testing-in-michigan-to-master-snow-and-ice/ so it's clearly something they are working on.

      https://twitter.com/waymo/status/994091703379415042?lang=en

      Are you really going to use stunts performed on a highly controlled circuit as an example of their prowess in automated driving? Its really not that hard to do. 99% of the automated driving problem is achieving safe free range driving.
      That was the point I was trying to make if it wasn't clear: the software has better control over the car than >99% of human drivers. They have the potential to handle an ice patch (for example) much better than a human driver. Tesla's auto-pilot is nice but they don't have the same capability for free range driving as you put it. But they no doubt have very good control of the cars.

      ---------
      I don't want to talk about self driving cars in this thread though, since it's even more off topic than nuclear power and there are already treads about self driving cars elsewhere.

      I do believe they will have an impact on how many EVs there are on the roads though, since it makes a sense for Waymo to choose electric, and I expect they will expand quickly. They will definitely be operating in several cities in ten years from now. That seems relevant to the question of when electric cars will become mainstream.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on January 11, 2019, 04:00:08 am
      If autonomous, on call cars do take over our two and three car garages will be used as the already often are - to store the stuff that SWMBO doesn't want in the house.

      On a more optimistic note they will also be the place to setup and use our more important toys like mills, thermal chambers, water jet tables and the like.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on January 11, 2019, 06:47:36 am
      If autonomous, on call cars do take over our two and three car garages will be used as the already often are - to store the stuff that SWMBO doesn't want in the house.

      On a more optimistic note they will also be the place to setup and use our more important toys like mills, thermal chambers, water jet tables and the like.
      I welcome our self driving overlords if it means a CNC lathe in the garage newly extended man cave.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 11, 2019, 02:26:02 pm
      If autonomous, on call cars do take over our two and three car garages will be used as the already often are - to store the stuff that SWMBO doesn't want in the house.

      On a more optimistic note they will also be the place to setup and use our more important toys like mills, thermal chambers, water jet tables and the like.

      You must be single.  In my household I would lose that battle and it would be turned into a spa.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on January 11, 2019, 06:08:33 pm
      If autonomous, on call cars do take over our two and three car garages will be used as the already often are - to store the stuff that SWMBO doesn't want in the house.

      On a more optimistic note they will also be the place to setup and use our more important toys like mills, thermal chambers, water jet tables and the like.

      You must be single.  In my household I would lose that battle and it would be turned into a spa.

      You just haven't learned the negotiating process.  "I would love to turn it into a spa, but there is no way to get those nasty oil smells from years of ICE vehicles into the space.  Besides you can be pampered so much better with the membership I got you at XXXX"

      It is going to cost you, but you can have your toys.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 11, 2019, 07:45:13 pm
      If autonomous, on call cars do take over our two and three car garages will be used as the already often are - to store the stuff that SWMBO doesn't want in the house.

      On a more optimistic note they will also be the place to setup and use our more important toys like mills, thermal chambers, water jet tables and the like.

      You must be single.  In my household I would loose that battle and it would be turned into a spa.

      You just haven't learned the negotiating process.  "I would love to turn it into a spa, but there is no way to get those nasty oil smells from years of ICE vehicles into the space.  Besides you can be pampered so much better with the membership I got you at XXXX"

      It is going to cost you, but you can have your toys.

      You know if I allow my wife to convert the garage into a spa it would keep her motor purring.  In return she would keep my motor reved more often.  I think I might like that better in the long run.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 13, 2019, 12:47:25 am
      Here's what Finland is doing to store nuclear waste.
      Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?

      https://youtu.be/uU3kLBo_ruo
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Nauris on January 13, 2019, 02:58:09 pm
      Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
      So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 13, 2019, 06:05:20 pm
      Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
      So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.
      I wonder how much concrete per kW for a wind turbine or solar or a nuclear.  I guess maybe per kW-hr over the life of the plants might be better.  I have read that concrete production produces a lot of CO2. 
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 13, 2019, 07:09:58 pm
      Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
      So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.
      I wonder how much concrete per kW for a wind turbine or solar or a nuclear.  I guess maybe per kW-hr over the life of the plants might be better.  I have read that concrete production produces a lot of CO2. 
       

      The making of cement and the curing of concrete releases a lot of CO2.  For people who are saying we need more wind and solar farms they are not factoring in how much concrete and thus CO2 would be produced.

      And then we have to factor in the CO2 producted for making and transporting the iron and aluminum.

      I’m not so sure anyone has accurate CO2 numbers for any of this.  There are so many ways to look at this.  CO2 is produced during the mining, the transport of the ore, the processing, transport of the processed material.  Then there is the construction of the buildings and the vehicles for the raw materials.  Then there’s the actual manufacturing of the solar panel, windo turbine, nuclear power plant etc.  The there’s the transport to the job site and the CO2 released during contraction.  Then do we include the CO2 produced by the workers when they drive to/from work?  Then there’s’ what’s produceded during the life of the power plant and the CO2 produced decommissioning and disassembling the faciility.

      Not so simple is it? 


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 13, 2019, 07:15:57 pm
      the curing of concrete releases a lot of CO2.
      Google says it is the other way around. Concrete can be used to trap CO2 and the curing can be improved by using CO2.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 13, 2019, 08:12:36 pm
      the curing of concrete releases a lot of CO2.
      Google says it is the other way around. Concrete can be used to trap CO2 and the curing can be improved by using CO2.

      Not sure what to beleive and that's my point.

      Concrete production produces eight percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions.  Folks in Oregon are using more treees instead of concrete.
      https://archpaper.com/2019/01/concrete-production-eight-percent-co2-emissions/



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 13, 2019, 08:40:48 pm
      Quote
      Cement manufacturing releases CO2 in the atmosphere both directly when calcium carbonate is heated, producing lime and carbon dioxide,[52] [53] and also indirectly through the use of energy if its production involves the emission of CO2. The cement industry produces about 10% of global man-made CO2 emissions, of which 60% is from the chemical process, and 40% from burning fuel.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cement#CO2_emissions
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 13, 2019, 08:53:17 pm
      the curing of concrete releases a lot of CO2.
      Google says it is the other way around. Concrete can be used to trap CO2 and the curing can be improved by using CO2.

      Not sure what to beleive and that's my point.

      Concrete production produces eight percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions.  Folks in Oregon are using more treees instead of concrete.
      https://archpaper.com/2019/01/concrete-production-eight-percent-co2-emissions/
      This articly only talks about production and says there are ways to drastically reduce CO2 emissions during production.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 13, 2019, 10:30:24 pm
      the curing of concrete releases a lot of CO2.
      Google says it is the other way around. Concrete can be used to trap CO2 and the curing can be improved by using CO2.

      This from Wikipedia:
      Quote
      Carbon dioxide emissions and climate change
      The cement industry is one of two largest producers of carbon dioxide (CO2), creating up to 5% of worldwide man-made emissions of this gas, of which 50% is from the chemical process and 40% from burning fuel.[1] The carbon dioxide CO2 produced for the manufacture of structural concrete (using ~14% cement) is estimated at 410 kg/m3 (~180 kg/tonne @ density of 2.3 g/cm3) (reduced to 290 kg/m3 with 30% fly ash replacement of cement).[3] The CO2 emission from the concrete production is directly proportional to the cement content used in the concrete mix; 900 kg of CO2 are emitted for the fabrication of every ton of cement, accounting for 88% of the emissions associated with the average concrete mix.[4][5] Cement manufacture contributes greenhouse gases both directly through the production of carbon dioxide when calcium carbonate is thermally decomposed, producing lime and carbon dioxide,[6] and also through the use of energy, particularly from the combustion of fossil fuels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 13, 2019, 11:00:43 pm
      As can be seen here, life-time CO2 emissions from nulear is comparable to wind and other renewables (page 3, fig 2):
      https://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn_383-carbon-footprint-electricity-generation.pdf (https://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn_383-carbon-footprint-electricity-generation.pdf)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 13, 2019, 11:07:30 pm
      the curing of concrete releases a lot of CO2.
      Google says it is the other way around. Concrete can be used to trap CO2 and the curing can be improved by using CO2.

      This from Wikipedia:
      Quote
      Carbon dioxide emissions and climate change
      The cement industry is one of two largest producers of carbon dioxide (CO2), creating up to 5% of worldwide man-made emissions of this gas, of which 50% is from the chemical process and 40% from burning fuel.[1] The carbon dioxide CO2 produced for the manufacture of structural concrete (using ~14% cement) is estimated at 410 kg/m3 (~180 kg/tonne @ density of 2.3 g/cm3) (reduced to 290 kg/m3 with 30% fly ash replacement of cement).[3] The CO2 emission from the concrete production is directly proportional to the cement content used in the concrete mix; 900 kg of CO2 are emitted for the fabrication of every ton of cement, accounting for 88% of the emissions associated with the average concrete mix.[4][5] Cement manufacture contributes greenhouse gases both directly through the production of carbon dioxide when calcium carbonate is thermally decomposed, producing lime and carbon dioxide,[6] and also through the use of energy, particularly from the combustion of fossil fuels.
      I already read that. I doesn't say anything about emitting CO2 while concrete is curing. This is all about the production process of Portland cement. This is a particular type of process which can be replaced with processes emitting less CO2. If you look up the chemical reactions involved when cement is curing you'll see there is no CO2 emitted.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 13, 2019, 11:50:54 pm
      the curing of concrete releases a lot of CO2.
      Google says it is the other way around. Concrete can be used to trap CO2 and the curing can be improved by using CO2.

      This from Wikipedia:
      Quote
      Carbon dioxide emissions and climate change
      The cement industry is one of two largest producers of carbon dioxide (CO2), creating up to 5% of worldwide man-made emissions of this gas, of which 50% is from the chemical process and 40% from burning fuel.[1] The carbon dioxide CO2 produced for the manufacture of structural concrete (using ~14% cement) is estimated at 410 kg/m3 (~180 kg/tonne @ density of 2.3 g/cm3) (reduced to 290 kg/m3 with 30% fly ash replacement of cement).[3] The CO2 emission from the concrete production is directly proportional to the cement content used in the concrete mix; 900 kg of CO2 are emitted for the fabrication of every ton of cement, accounting for 88% of the emissions associated with the average concrete mix.[4][5] Cement manufacture contributes greenhouse gases both directly through the production of carbon dioxide when calcium carbonate is thermally decomposed, producing lime and carbon dioxide,[6] and also through the use of energy, particularly from the combustion of fossil fuels.
      I already read that. I doesn't say anything about emitting CO2 while concrete is curing. This is all about the production process of Portland cement. This is a particular type of process which can be replaced with processes emitting less CO2. If you look up the chemical reactions involved when cement is curing you'll see there is no CO2 emitted.
      I didn't say it was emitted in curing. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 13, 2019, 11:59:05 pm
      But Doug did. You quoted that too.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 14, 2019, 05:57:39 am
      But Doug did. You quoted that too.

      Periodic videos has a video on concrete.  Appears I remembered it wrong.  Doesn’t CO2 react with concrete as it is curing (which goes on for many many years) and weakens the concrete?  From what I am reading it sounds like CO2 is what causes concrete to crumble and fall apart.

      Yes I am the one who WRONGLY said CO2 was emitted as concrete cured.  My error, thank you for calling me on it.

      https://youtu.be/b43Iz2OoUNk
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 14, 2019, 09:56:16 am
      I highly depends on the type of concrete. The concrete dome over the Pantheon in Rome has been there for about 2000 years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 14, 2019, 10:03:42 am
      I highly depends on the type of concrete. The concrete dome over the Pantheon in Rome has been there for about 2000 years.
      They say that after all that time the dome is still absorbing CO2, as the curing process is not complete.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 14, 2019, 11:34:26 am
      I highly depends on the type of concrete. The concrete dome over the Pantheon in Rome has been there for about 2000 years.
      They say that after all that time the dome is still absorbing CO2, as the curing process is not complete.

      Concrete poured 2,000 years ago is still curing and becoming harder is my understanding.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 18, 2019, 04:20:12 am

      This is why I'm looking at getting a PHEV.  For in town I can do EV.  And traveling in the western US I don't have to go through the complications of EV travel.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0i41s9NTgXw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0i41s9NTgXw)

      I think it will get better.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 18, 2019, 04:52:18 am
      From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

      Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 18, 2019, 05:04:42 am
      From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

      Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.

      I think I'm going to buy a  Outlander 2019 PHEV.  It will go places you can't get to because of charging infrastructure.  Plus I don't want to be standing around on a trip waiting for a charge when I can be driving. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on January 18, 2019, 05:07:26 am
      Before I offered an opinion on why the hybrids are being dropped I would want to understand how each vehicle type at the sales volumes predicted affects the CAFE ratings for the manufacturers.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 18, 2019, 05:09:15 am
      From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

      Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.

      I think I'm going to buy a  Outlander 2019 PHEV.  It will go places you can't get to because of charging infrastructure.  Plus I don't want to be standing around on a trip waiting for a charge when I can be driving.

      I just looked at the IONIQ from Hyundai.  The have a PHEV, BEV,  Hybrid and gas.  I would buy one.  Stupid think is the BEV is only available in Southern California and the BEV, the one I would buy the only get about 8 per year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 18, 2019, 09:41:28 am
      From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

      Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.
      The battery in a Prius like hybrid and the one in a PHEV are very different in both size and operating characteristics. If you put a charging socket on a Prius it would only take you a kilometre or so. Its about energy recovery from braking, and operating the gasoline engine in the more effective parts of its envelope. Its not about electric drive. Its really the electrification of the mechanical braking energy recovery systems that Volvo and others put in many commuter buses well before the Prius was launched.

      The BMW i3 is a good example of the problem with trying to make a PHEV effective. They tried to make that car light, for efficiency, using carbon fibre and novel construction. A big engine and tank would have wrecked that strategy. So, they used a small lightweight engine and a small tank, and produced a result few people liked. If they had made it more like other PHEVs it would have weighed so much that people would not have liked the poor efficiency. You can't win. The Prius approach focuses on keeping all the additional hardware compact and light weight.

      Has any PHEV hit a sweet spot where it has sold a lot of units? I believe the Mitsubishi Outlander bas been the best selling PHEV in Europe, but it's quite a rare car on the roads. Most PHEVs have only sold in very small numbers that can't sustain the business, and not the focus is now shifting to pure electric, as many new models are being prepared for market.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 18, 2019, 10:15:09 am
      From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

      Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.
      Probably because the tax incentives ended. AFAIK most of the Mitsubishi Outlanders got sold in the Netherlands. When the tax incentives stopped the sales also dropped to zero.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 18, 2019, 11:07:02 am
      From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

      Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.
      Probably because the tax incentives ended. AFAIK most of the Mitsubishi Outlanders got sold in the Netherlands. When the tax incentives stopped the sales also dropped to zero.
      A lot of PHEV Outlanders have been sold in the UK, due to favourable company car tax arrangements. However, fitting tax conditions is usually key to the commercial success of any car. That's why you'll never see a 2 litre car engine that's actually 2 litres. Its always 1995cc or 1998cc, to ensure it will not hit the many global tax penalties that start at 2 litres.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Red Squirrel on January 18, 2019, 01:48:44 pm
      Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
      So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.

      This goes for ANY construction project though and it's a 1 time thing for that particular plant.

      Pro oil people use the same argument against electric cars and renewable projects "but they're not green since there's a carbon footprint to manufacture them!".  So do gas cars and oil projects...   

      Hopefully eventually we can eliminate even the manufacturing carbon footprint of things, but baby steps. Let's concentrate on making things that don't pollute during their main usable life time first.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 18, 2019, 02:44:58 pm
      Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
      So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.

      This goes for ANY construction project though and it's a 1 time thing for that particular plant.

      Pro oil people use the same argument against electric cars and renewable projects "but they're not green since there's a carbon footprint to manufacture them!".  So do gas cars and oil projects...   

      Hopefully eventually we can eliminate even the manufacturing carbon footprint of things, but baby steps. Let's concentrate on making things that don't pollute during their main usable life time first.   
      Its not a one off thing. These plants only last 30 years or so, so the thing gets repeated every 30 years. You need to factor this into any analysis, as some concepts have such massive once every 30 years things that they dominate over day to day things.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 18, 2019, 03:59:37 pm
      From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

      Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.
      The battery in a Prius like hybrid and the one in a PHEV are very different in both size and operating characteristics. If you put a charging socket on a Prius it would only take you a kilometre or so. Its about energy recovery from braking, and operating the gasoline engine in the more effective parts of its envelope. Its not about electric drive. Its really the electrification of the mechanical braking energy recovery systems that Volvo and others put in many commuter buses well before the Prius was launched.

      The BMW i3 is a good example of the problem with trying to make a PHEV effective. They tried to make that car light, for efficiency, using carbon fibre and novel construction. A big engine and tank would have wrecked that strategy. So, they used a small lightweight engine and a small tank, and produced a result few people liked. If they had made it more like other PHEVs it would have weighed so much that people would not have liked the poor efficiency. You can't win. The Prius approach focuses on keeping all the additional hardware compact and light weight.

      Has any PHEV hit a sweet spot where it has sold a lot of units? I believe the Mitsubishi Outlander bas been the best selling PHEV in Europe, but it's quite a rare car on the roads. Most PHEVs have only sold in very small numbers that can't sustain the business, and not the focus is now shifting to pure electric, as many new models are being prepared for market.


      Thank you.  Very good explanation.  You taught me something.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 18, 2019, 05:04:35 pm
      Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
      So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.

      This goes for ANY construction project though and it's a 1 time thing for that particular plant.

      Pro oil people use the same argument against electric cars and renewable projects "but they're not green since there's a carbon footprint to manufacture them!".  So do gas cars and oil projects...   

      Hopefully eventually we can eliminate even the manufacturing carbon footprint of things, but baby steps. Let's concentrate on making things that don't pollute during their main usable life time first.   
      Its not a one off thing. These plants only last 30 years or so, so the thing gets repeated every 30 years. You need to factor this into any analysis, as some concepts have such massive once every 30 years things that they dominate over day to day things.
      It's a one off thing for each plant built and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cement depends on how it's being manufactured (same as with PV panels) so it will likely improve with time. As can be seen here solar produce more GHG emissions than nuclear (page 3, fig 2):
      https://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn_383-carbon-footprint-electricity-generation.pdf (https://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn_383-carbon-footprint-electricity-generation.pdf)
      But if we compared to coal, gas and oil it's obviously silly to fuss about the tiny GHG emission levels that you get from solar and nuclear.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 18, 2019, 05:25:25 pm
      Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
      So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.

      This goes for ANY construction project though and it's a 1 time thing for that particular plant.

      Pro oil people use the same argument against electric cars and renewable projects "but they're not green since there's a carbon footprint to manufacture them!".  So do gas cars and oil projects...   

      Hopefully eventually we can eliminate even the manufacturing carbon footprint of things, but baby steps. Let's concentrate on making things that don't pollute during their main usable life time first.   
      Its not a one off thing. These plants only last 30 years or so, so the thing gets repeated every 30 years. You need to factor this into any analysis, as some concepts have such massive once every 30 years things that they dominate over day to day things.
      It's a one off thing for each plant built and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cement depends on how it's being manufactured (same as with PV panels) so it will likely improve with time. As can be seen here solar produce more GHG emissions than nuclear (page 3, fig 2):
      https://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn_383-carbon-footprint-electricity-generation.pdf (https://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn_383-carbon-footprint-electricity-generation.pdf)
      But if we compared to coal, gas and oil it's obviously silly to fuss about the tiny GHG emission levels that you get from solar and nuclear.

      Something I don’t get is why when folks talk about CO2 emissions from the burning of coal they don’t mention the burning of coal/fossil fuels also releases millions of tons every year of nuclear radioactive isotopes into our atmosphere.  And the waste, the slag heaps from the burning of coal are also radio-active and the radio-active waste is leaches out into the ground water.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 18, 2019, 06:58:55 pm
      Quote
      Something I don’t get is why when folks talk about CO2 emissions from the burning of coal they don’t mention the burning of coal/fossil fuels also releases millions of tons every year of nuclear radioactive isotopes into our atmosphere.  And the waste, the slag heaps from the burning of coal are also radio-active and the radio-active waste is leaches out into the ground water.
      And the coal/gas/oil industry doesn't even have to take care of their own (radioactive) waste (like nuclear does). Often it's just dumped in a landfill somewhere.

      People are irrational and afraid of things they don't understand. Burning of wood and coal at home in the cottage is cosy. Big power plants with educated (probably ateist) types in lab coats are scary and evil. (And since coal and gas is such a big industry they have much better lobbyists).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 18, 2019, 08:36:01 pm
      Quote
      Something I don’t get is why when folks talk about CO2 emissions from the burning of coal they don’t mention the burning of coal/fossil fuels also releases millions of tons every year of nuclear radioactive isotopes into our atmosphere.  And the waste, the slag heaps from the burning of coal are also radio-active and the radio-active waste is leaches out into the ground water.
      And the coal/gas/oil industry doesn't even have to take care of their own (radioactive) waste (like nuclear does). Often it's just dumped in a landfill somewhere.

      People are irrational and afraid of things they don't understand. Burning of wood and coal at home in the cottage is cosy. Big power plants with educated (probably ateist) types in lab coats are scary and evil. (And since coal and gas is such a big industry they have much better lobbyists).


      Agreeded - If it weren't for science we would not have food to eat, heated homes, cars/tranportation and be subservient to relgions.  I for one am glad I am not living in an unheated cave and have plenty of food to eat.  And just think how lucky folks are in Alaska....  In the middle of winter they can get fresh tropical fruit.

      Wonder what would happen if we had elected officals with a sicence education.  In the US I think we only have one representitive.  Maybe it would not make a difference as Germany's Chancellor is one and yet Germans are shunning nuclear power and burning more coal.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 18, 2019, 09:04:58 pm
      Maybe it would not make a difference as Germany's Chancellor is one and yet Germans are shunning nuclear power and burning more coal.
      It is strange Merkel did that, and at the same time making Germany more dependent on Russian LNG.  :-//

      Germany has a strong political movement (the green party) that were founded on anti-nuclear rhetoric. I suppose Germany also have lots of domestic coal and a powerful coal industry. The European union has its roots in the European Coal and Steel Community which gives a hint of how important the coal industry have been.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 19, 2019, 02:14:55 am
      Maybe it would not make a difference as Germany's Chancellor is one and yet Germans are shunning nuclear power and burning more coal.
      It is strange Merkel did that, and at the same time making Germany more dependent on Russian LNG.  :-//

      Germany has a strong political movement (the green party) that were founded on anti-nuclear rhetoric. I suppose Germany also have lots of domestic coal and a powerful coal industry. The European union has its roots in the European Coal and Steel Community which gives a hint of how important the coal industry have been.


      Interesting the dynamics which are going on in Germany and Europe.  I'm hearing from my European friends Germany has a new or maybe old political party that's gaining in popularity that's telling using the power of God.  As in Fukushima was caused by God as a warning to not use nuclear power.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 19, 2019, 02:36:33 am
      I wouldn't know, the media here write more about US politics than EU and hardly anything about what's going on in other European countries. You're lucky if they cover an election in a neighbouring country. So you basically have to try and read their national news if you want to keep up with what's happening there. Getting waaay of topic again..  :-[

      Here's what Finland is doing to store nuclear waste.
      ...
      Actually, I think that video is just more scaremongering. All that talk about warning messages and thorny fields and what not. :scared:

      If the nuclear accidents themselves doesn't turn out to be so bad, then you can always invent a new bogeyman by saying the waste is a problem.

      Nuclear waste is not a big technical problem, it's mainly a political problem. People are more afraid of radiation than other kind of dangerous materials because it's something they have no intuition for. It would be better to deposit the material in an even less accessible area than they do in Finland, preferably a subduction zone, but due to the political opposition to all things nuclear that's not possible. But I'm confident that it's still more than good enough location.

      The US have been talking about putting waste in Yucca Mountain. I don't know how geologically stable Yucca Mountain is so I can't say if it's a good location, but I'm sure there are other good spots in the US as well.

      The "risk" that some hypothetical future post apocalyptic civilisation will have forgotten all about ionising radiation, while still managing to dig a km down through solid bedrock and get in contact with nuclear waste, seems sort of ridiculously unlikely. But even if they did it's an acceptable risk. In that unlikely scenario maybe a few people would get sick, maybe even die. But even if you factor that into the equation, overall, nuclear is still one of the safest and cleanest methods for generating electricity that exists today and it is madness to not use it to replace fossil fuels (and burning in general).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 19, 2019, 03:06:43 pm
      The "risk" that some hypothetical future post apocalyptic civilisation will have forgotten all about ionising radiation, while still managing to dig a km down through solid bedrock and get in contact with nuclear waste, seems sort of ridiculously unlikely.
      After the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe fell hard, and retreated into insular pockets of activity. When things started to improve again, those wealthy enough to travel and see the world were frequently shocked at finding massive structures from Greek and Roman times. They had no clue who had built them, as all connection with history had been lost. There is a reason why the Dark Ages have that tag name.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 19, 2019, 05:23:00 pm
      The "risk" that some hypothetical future post apocalyptic civilisation will have forgotten all about ionising radiation, while still managing to dig a km down through solid bedrock and get in contact with nuclear waste, seems sort of ridiculously unlikely.
      After the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe fell hard, and retreated into insular pockets of activity. When things started to improve again, those wealthy enough to travel and see the world were frequently shocked at finding massive structures from Greek and Roman times. They had no clue who had built them, as all connection with history had been lost. There is a reason why the Dark Ages have that tag name.
      A lot of stuff has been re-invented during the past 5000 years. But then again non of the old empires got to book printing. IMHO book printing has been the turning point because it allows sharing information on a global scale. And internet is taking sharing knowledge to the next level. All in all information is much more widely spread and less likely to be lost.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 19, 2019, 05:28:01 pm
      The "risk" that some hypothetical future post apocalyptic civilisation will have forgotten all about ionising radiation, while still managing to dig a km down through solid bedrock and get in contact with nuclear waste, seems sort of ridiculously unlikely.
      After the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe fell hard, and retreated into insular pockets of activity. When things started to improve again, those wealthy enough to travel and see the world were frequently shocked at finding massive structures from Greek and Roman times. They had no clue who had built them, as all connection with history had been lost. There is a reason why the Dark Ages have that tag name.
      A lot of stuff has been re-invented during the past 5000 years. But then again non of the old empires got to book printing. IMHO book printing has been the turning point because it allows sharing information on a global scale. And internet is taking sharing knowledge to the next level. All in all information is much more widely spread and less likely to be lost.
      Books improve the durability of knowledge, assuming they aren't made of the kind of paperback material that crumbles in a few decades. Anything electronic degrades it. So many things have to be just right to be able to extract the contents of any electronics repository that people unlikely to figure out how to do it. Also, we have no really persistent storage mechanisms, so the data is unlikely to even be available for retrieval.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 19, 2019, 05:51:49 pm
      The "risk" that some hypothetical future post apocalyptic civilisation will have forgotten all about ionising radiation, while still managing to dig a km down through solid bedrock and get in contact with nuclear waste, seems sort of ridiculously unlikely.
      After the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe fell hard, and retreated into insular pockets of activity. When things started to improve again, those wealthy enough to travel and see the world were frequently shocked at finding massive structures from Greek and Roman times. They had no clue who had built them, as all connection with history had been lost. There is a reason why the Dark Ages have that tag name.
      A lot of stuff has been re-invented during the past 5000 years. But then again non of the old empires got to book printing. IMHO book printing has been the turning point because it allows sharing information on a global scale. And internet is taking sharing knowledge to the next level. All in all information is much more widely spread and less likely to be lost.

      It was much more than book printing, only the Priests and the few wealthy could read.  It was Martin Luther who exposed the Pope and church for lying about what is written in the Bible to get money from the uneducated and illiterate peasants.  Once Martin Luther translated the Bible into German people cold see for themself the Pope and Priests were making making things up all in the name of money and power.

      https://youtu.be/CXK9NNp1yk4
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 19, 2019, 06:21:34 pm
      I don't exclude the possibility of something apocalyptic happening and people going medieval bible thumping again. There are signs things are moving in that direction (although I find it unlikely it will ever get as bad as witch burning, but who knows). However, during the dark ages, people didn't go around digging many hundreds of meters down into the granite bedrock. If people have that capability they probably haven't forgotten about ionising radiation either and they would detect the danger. But lets say they have forgotten about it and they like to dig deep holes, what are the odds that someone would dig into a waste storage location by chance? But lets say the worst thing happens and some tribe who knows nothing about radiation have the bad luck of digging into a waste storage location, what would the effect be? A few people might get sick, and some might die. Even if you factor all that into the dangers of nuclear power, it still appears to be one of the safest and cleanest ways to generate electricity we know of. So many more will get sick and die because of pollution from coal/gas/oil and climate change, that's not just a hypothetical risk, it's guaranteed.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 19, 2019, 07:28:38 pm
      Let's not forget the first nuclear fission reactor was all natural.  It ran for a few hundred thousand years and we were able to find it and I don't think anyone was killed or became ill due to radiation sickness.

      We do know of one media that will survive and that's stone.  We have stone tablets and drawings on cave walls that go back 40,000 years.

      My physics taught us just as a volcano is "hot", so is ionizing radiation.  Just as you would keep your distance from a pool of molten hot lava and not go swimming in it just keep your distance from "hot" or ionizing radiation.  We tend to fear what we don't know and understand.  Religion in the Dark Ages was really good at that.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_nuclear_fission_reactor


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 19, 2019, 08:48:26 pm
      Let's not forget the first nuclear fission reactor was all natural.  It ran for a few hundred thousand years and we were able to find it and I don't think anyone was killed or became ill due to radiation sickness.
      Yes, 1.7 billion years ago. At that time, the Earth was a very different place. Even oxygen in the atmosphere was a relatively new thing.
      First vertebrate land animals are from 380 million years ago.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 19, 2019, 09:22:39 pm
      Let's not forget the first nuclear fission reactor was all natural.  It ran for a few hundred thousand years and we were able to find it and I don't think anyone was killed or became ill due to radiation sickness.
      Yes, 1.7 billion years ago. At that time, the Earth was a very different place. Even oxygen in the atmosphere was a relatively new thing.
      First vertebrate land animals are from 380 million years ago.

      True and dispite that radioactive decay that's still going on to this very day land animals. vertebrates and man was able to evolve.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 19, 2019, 11:39:20 pm
      Let's not forget the first nuclear fission reactor was all natural.  It ran for a few hundred thousand years and we were able to find it and I don't think anyone was killed or became ill due to radiation sickness.
      Yes, 1.7 billion years ago. At that time, the Earth was a very different place. Even oxygen in the atmosphere was a relatively new thing.
      First vertebrate land animals are from 380 million years ago.

      True and dispite that radioactive decay that's still going on to this very day land animals. vertebrates and man was able to evolve.

      That wasn't going to be a problem, considering that:

      "Oklo is the only known location for this in the world and consists of 16 sites at which self-sustaining nuclear fission reactions are thought to have taken place approximately 1.7 billion years ago, and ran for a few hundred thousand years, averaging probably less than 100 kW of thermal power during that time"

      "The fission reaction cycles continued for hundreds of thousands of years and ended when the ever-decreasing fissile materials no longer could sustain a chain reaction"

      Too small to cause that much of an impact, in a limited zone, and the "waste" was depleted.

      And at that time, at best, you could expect to find unicellular organisms, which are a lot more resistant to radiaton than us, anyways. Mammals in general are pretty bad at radiation resistance.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 20, 2019, 02:34:10 am
      Ummm, the waste is not depleted.  If it was depleted we would know about it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: cdev on January 20, 2019, 05:17:54 am
      Electric trolley cars have been mainstream!

      If we had kept the fun, fast, bouncy electric trolley cars we here in the USA wouldn't be in the mess we are in today.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WORIrHpC8M (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WORIrHpC8M)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 20, 2019, 12:11:13 pm
      Nuclear power is not and never will be perfectly safe but what people fail to realise is that neither is any of the alternatives. Even such a common and familiar thing as a wood stove is far more dangerous: too much thermal radiation will kill you, fires regularly go out of control and burn down entire blocks (in the past entire cities would burn down regularly), the air pollution from wood stoves kills more people than pollution from nuclear accidents, the waste (wood ash) is often toxic (contains high concentrations of heavy metals like cadmium) and it's often just dumped in peoples back yard. It gets much worse with coal and other fossil fuels.

      What Oklo shows is that if you put nuclear waste in a suitable location in the bedrock it will stay there and not leak into the biosphere. A steady flow of water passed through the Oklo natural reactor and as far as we can tell the fuel and waste stayed put. There is no reason to believe that waste stored in a deep geological deposit could leak any radioactive material to the surface.

      And even if a little would leak that isn't so bad. If you do the math even if as much as 10% of the waste were to leak out after 100 years the total amount of radiation that leaked into the bedrock would be equal to the total amount of radiation that went into the fuel (i.e. radiation from uranium that was taken out of the bedrock during mining).

      Of course we shouldn't care about radiation in the bedrock, what we should care about is toxic materials in the biosphere that harm living things, and putting the waste deep underground effectively prevents it from reaching the biosphere.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on January 20, 2019, 12:30:02 pm
      Quote
      Nuclear power is not and never will be perfectly safe but what people fail to realise is that neither is any of the alternatives.
      That's perfectly true.
      The best, cheapest, and safest way to use nuclear power is to use the big fusion power installed over our heads and to install massive quantities of PV panels, and storage devices.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 20, 2019, 12:48:20 pm
      Nuclear power is not and never will be perfectly safe but what people fail to realise is that neither is any of the alternatives.
      Actually nuclear power is by far the safest way to generate electricity. It is even safer than wind and rooftop solar!

      https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/#5895a0c6709b (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/#5895a0c6709b)

      https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2013/09/29/forget-eagle-deaths-wind-turbines-kill-humans/#15749c6a5467 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2013/09/29/forget-eagle-deaths-wind-turbines-kill-humans/#15749c6a5467)

      I also did some calculations on battery storage. Forget about that. For example: take the Tesla powerwall. This is advertised by Tesla for 6400 euro (excluding VAT). Say you can get 1500 cycles from it (which is far more than the Li-ion cells you can buy today). The capacity is 13.5kWh so the total amound of energy you can store is 1500x13.5=20250kWh. The storage cost per kWh is 6400/20250=0,31 euro per kWh. I hope this shows how insane the 'battery storage' idea is. The storage costs alone dwarf the generation costs. It will make much more sense to use the electricity to generate Hydrogen and use that. Hydrogen can be stored in a tank which has a lifespan of many decades. Electricity from a wind turbine costs 2 dollarcents per kWh. If using Hydrogen has an efficiency of 7% (the actual number is more in the 50% ballpark) it is already cheaper compared to battery storage.

      With Hydrogen at 50% efficiency it still wins if the batteries last for 20,000 cycles or when the batteries become 8 times cheaper.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 20, 2019, 01:05:27 pm
      Quote
      Nuclear power is not and never will be perfectly safe but what people fail to realise is that neither is any of the alternatives.
      That's perfectly true.
      The best, cheapest, and safest way to use nuclear power is to use the big fusion power installed over our heads and to install massive quantities of PV panels, and storage devices.
      I have nothing against solar, but there are (at least) two problems:

      1. The sun doesn't always shine, especially here in the far north. It's a month since winter solstice and the days are getting longer but the sun's highest altitude was still only 14 degrees above the horizon today, and it only stays up for about 8 hours. And I live in southern Scandinavia. Even at the equator it's dark 50% of the day. And then there is things called clouds. Same problem with wind, there is no electricity when the wind isn't blowing. We also need a power source that works when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing.

      2. If we want to replace fossil fuels as quickly as possible in order to prevent severe climate change we need to use everything we got available right now. There is a limited production capacity of PV panels (just as there is a limited production capacity of new nuclear power plants). So there is a limit to how quickly we can replace fossil fuels. By using all available alternatives (e.g. both solar and nuclear) we can replace fossil fuels much faster. It's the same with EVs they won't replace ICEs over night, it's a gradual change, and if we use both EVs and biofuels we can replace fossil fuels quicker.

      (EDIT: and you wrote storage devices, what storage devices? there is nothing that could work as large scale storage today.)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 20, 2019, 01:26:49 pm
      Ummm, the waste is not depleted.  If it was depleted we would know about it.
      Maybe depleted is not the word to describe it. It had lower U235 content than normal. The article mentions it:

      Quote
      In May 1972 at the Pierrelatte uranium enrichment facility in France, routine mass spectrometry comparing UF6 samples from the Oklo Mine, located in Gabon, showed a discrepancy in the amount of the 235 U isotope. Normally the concentration is 0.72% while these samples had only 0.60%, a significant difference.[5] This discrepancy required explanation, as all civilian uranium handling facilities must meticulously account for all fissionable isotopes to ensure that none are diverted for weapons purposes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: cdev on January 20, 2019, 03:39:36 pm
      The risk of nuclear weapons proliferation makes me worry quite a bit. I think PV makes the most sense for a power strategy, with storage technology improvements especially.

      PV energy could be used to lift water and store it in a large reservoir for use in power generation as it flowed back down.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 20, 2019, 04:26:10 pm
      The risk of nuclear weapons proliferation makes me worry quite a bit. I think PV makes the most sense for a power strategy, with storage technology improvements especially.

      PV energy could be used to lift water and store it in a large reservoir for use in power generation as it flowed back down.
      Sure, someday in the future when there exist some new amazing storage technology, until then we need alternatives for when the sun doesn't shine.

      The reality today is that whenever a nuclear power plant is decommissioned it is replaced by a coal/gas power plant.

      Wishful thinking is not helpful, it just makes things worse.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on January 20, 2019, 05:01:10 pm
      The risk of nuclear weapons proliferation makes me worry quite a bit.

      I understand your concern in theory, although the real risk of ever using them (again) is pretty low for the time being IMO. I admit the storage of those weapons itself is a concern though. Even if we never use them purposefully, they are still there, requiring a constant surveillance.

      PV energy could be used to lift water and store it in a large reservoir for use in power generation as it flowed back down.

      Storing energy in this "mechanical" way is actually used worldwide, and there are a few recent ongoing projects to make them more efficient. One of them I've seen is about exactly that: pumping water to a large reservoir on a hilltop and storing it there. When it's needed, the water is released and flows down due to gravity alone, which can then power a generator. In another project of this kind, water is not directly used, but huge concrete blocks instead, underseas. Although this energy storage approach is still not very efficient, it doesn't matter much at this point since it's all about storing energy that would be lost if not stored anyway. In terms of cost, environmental friendliness and safety, it seems to compare favorably to battery-based systems.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on January 20, 2019, 05:07:04 pm
      More investment in matching demand to supply needs to be done. As well as thermal storage which is very well suited to HVAC and hot water.

      As for cars, just require all new cars to get at least 30 MPG(e) highway, gradually increasing that over time so progress does not stagnate.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 20, 2019, 05:29:55 pm
      As for cars, just require all new cars to get at least 30 MPG(e) highway, gradually increasing that over time so progress does not stagnate.
      Make that 45MPG and it starts to make sense. In a few years the EU wants new cars to do way better than 45MPG.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 20, 2019, 05:57:11 pm
      The risk of nuclear weapons proliferation makes me worry quite a bit. I think PV makes the most sense for a power strategy, with storage technology improvements especially.

      PV energy could be used to lift water and store it in a large reservoir for use in power generation as it flowed back down.

      No need to worry about nuclear weapons proliferation.  Nuclear fuel used in power plants is very difficult to enrich to make a nuclear bomb.  Then if it’s a plutonium bomb it’s very difficult to detonate.  A uranium bomb is much easier to detonate, but the problem getting enough bomb grande uranium.

      Yes PV energy could be and is used to lift and store water in large reservoirs for power generation.  But in reality it doesn’t work out so well.  Here in California as I recall we have 100 such reservoirs.  The reason it doesn’t work so well there are competing interests.  That water is needed as drinking water for people and for farmers to grow crops.  The downstream rivers and streams need that water so fish breed and survive.  And things get worse in the summer when there is no rain and we have water shortages.

      How bad is this for us?  Lake Powell in Nevada is one such man made reservoir.  Over the last 20 years the water level has dropped over 200 feet.  What happens to your storage idea when there’s no water?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 20, 2019, 05:57:59 pm
      San Francisco Bay Area had a similar rail system.  The lower deck off the Bay bridge was for rail traffic only.  LA in the 1910s was considered to have the cleanest air in the United States.  By the 1940s it was considered the worst.  It took a while, but scientists finely figured out it was car exhaust that was causing all of the pollution.  It took another 25 years for politicians to take action.

      And lets not forget we have GM to thank for adding lead to gasoline.  The engines they were producing in the 1920s would knock and it was found if lead was added to the gas it would prevent knocking.  After 50 years of cars spewing lead out of the exhaust tanks the lead level in the soil in the neighborhoods that boarder the busy freeways and streets are considered toxic.  The lead levels are 10 to 20 times whart’s allowable by law.  Tell me just how stupid this is....  Community activists are telling people to plant con unity gardens in this soil to grow food for low income residents.

      It was the car companies who were agaist California’s requirements to have lead removed from gasoline and produce less pollution.  If you appreciate the car you drive today pollutes less, get better gas mileage and isn’t spewing lead out of the tail pipes of cars you have California politicians to thank.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on January 20, 2019, 06:15:46 pm
      Make that 45MPG and it starts to make sense. In a few years the EU wants new cars to do way better than 45MPG.
      I'm going by US standards. Even then, there's a lot of cars that already do at least 30 MPG highway. There's no excuse to not do at least that well.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 20, 2019, 06:16:00 pm
      I think weapon proliferation is the biggest problem with nuclear power. But it's not like North Korea, Russia, China, USA, etc, etc are going to care one way or another if peaceful countries like Sweden or Finland shut down their nuclear power plants. Countries that want nuclear weapons don't care about Green Peace protesters. In fact you can use nuclear power plants to burn and get rid of weapons grade material. So I don't think it's a valid argument against civilian nuclear power.

      Pumped hydroelectric seems promising, but like hydro it requires suitable locations and lakes you can use which are in limited supply. Would be interesting to see a study on how much pumped hydro capacity that could realistically be constructed. If pumped hydro is enough to serve as storage for solar and wind so we don't need anything else, then that's great (although I'd be surprised if that is the case). But as long as coal, gas and oil power plants exist it's much better to use nuclear.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 20, 2019, 07:39:05 pm
      It’s no simple task to turn nuke power plat waste into nuke bombs.
      Here’s what happens when you mess with water.

      https://twitter.com/ScienceChannel/status/1087001805131661313?s=20
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 20, 2019, 07:57:07 pm
      The risk of nuclear weapons proliferation makes me worry quite a bit.

      I understand your concern in theory, although the real risk of ever using them (again) is pretty low for the time being IMO. I admit the storage of those weapons itself is a concern though. Even if we never use them purposefully, they are still there, requiring a constant surveillance.

      PV energy could be used to lift water and store it in a large reservoir for use in power generation as it flowed back down.

      Storing energy in this "mechanical" way is actually used worldwide, and there are a few recent ongoing projects to make them more efficient. One of them I've seen is about exactly that: pumping water to a large reservoir on a hilltop and storing it there. When it's needed, the water is released and flows down due to gravity alone, which can then power a generator. In another project of this kind, water is not directly used, but huge concrete blocks instead, underseas. Although this energy storage approach is still not very efficient, it doesn't matter much at this point since it's all about storing energy that would be lost if not stored anyway. In terms of cost, environmental friendliness and safety, it seems to compare favorably to battery-based systems.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity
      It is a great way to store energy.  The problem is there are a limited number of locations where this is feasible. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on January 21, 2019, 02:26:30 am
      Storing energy in this "mechanical" way is actually used worldwide, and there are a few recent ongoing projects to make them more efficient. One of them I've seen is about exactly that: pumping water to a large reservoir on a hilltop and storing it there. When it's needed, the water is released and flows down due to gravity alone, which can then power a generator.
      We have a system here in Missouri (US) that pumps water up an 800 foot hill at night, and then it runs down hill at the peak time of the day.  They recently had an accident and the wall of the upper reservoir collapsed, sending 1.5 billion gallons of water crashing into a state park.  They rebuilt the reservoir with better technology, so the electric utility must think it really helps.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 21, 2019, 02:54:43 am
      Storing energy in this "mechanical" way is actually used worldwide, and there are a few recent ongoing projects to make them more efficient. One of them I've seen is about exactly that: pumping water to a large reservoir on a hilltop and storing it there. When it's needed, the water is released and flows down due to gravity alone, which can then power a generator.
      We have a system here in Missouri (US) that pumps water up an 800 foot hill at night, and then it runs down hill at the peak time of the day.  They recently had an accident and the wall of the upper reservoir collapsed, sending 1.5 billion gallons of water crashing into a state park.  They rebuilt the reservoir with better technology, so the electric utility must think it really helps.

      Jon

      It helps a lot.  Years ago Los Angles had a similar accident.  The dam burst at midnight and killed over 400.  Bodies were found many days latter floating in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico.  Interestingly the water in the dam would have gone to Lake Owens.  Look back a few posts to see what happened to Lake Owens. 

      Posting links for before and after pictures.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Francis_Dam#/media/File:The_St._Francis_Dam.jpg
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Francis_Dam#/media/File:St._Francis_Dam_after_the_1928_failure.jpg
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on January 21, 2019, 08:29:35 am
      Quote
      The reality today is that whenever a nuclear power plant is decommissioned it is replaced by a coal/gas power plant.
      That's not true at all.
      And it makes no sense any more today.

      Wind and utility PV are now much cheaper than fossil, so why replace expensive nukes with expensive fossil ?
      Makes no economic sense at all, nuke replaced by coal is more of a legend.


      An exemple is germany:
      The decomissioning of nukes is ongoing, and they are replaced by renewables.
      (https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/gallery_image/public/power_generation_by_source_1990-2015_gross2.png?itok=8dmQDF7S)

      Of course that hindered their reduction in coal, but that's their next big target after all nukes are gone, which is scheduled in 2 Years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 21, 2019, 03:53:49 pm
      (http://The reality today is that whenever a nuclear power plant is decommissioned it is replaced by a coal/gas power plant.)
      That's not true at all.
      And it makes no sense.

      Wind and utility PV are now much cheaper than fossil, so why replace expensive nukes with expensive fossil ?
      Makes no economic sense at all, it's more of a legend.


      An exemple is germany:
      The decomissioning of nukes is ongoing, and they are replaced by renewables.
      (https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/gallery_image/public/power_generation_by_source_1990-2015_gross2.png?itok=8dmQDF7S)

      Of course that hindered their reduction in coal, but that's their next big target after all nukes are gone.

      And what your saying is not correct either.  Germany is decommissioning nuclear power plants, installing more solar and wind and is burning more coal.  They Still rely on nuclear power, but that they are getting from France.

      “Germany’s carbon emissions are not declining much, despite renewables increasing to almost 30% of the country’s power mix this year (see figure below), and over 50% of its installed capacity. Unfortunately, coal has also increased to about 30% and, along with power purchases from France and other countries in Europe, is used to load-follow, or buffer, the intermittency of the renewables.”

      “Coal is the largest domestically-produced source of power in Germany, despite a tremendous surge in renewables over the last ten years. As a result, the country’s CO2 emissions have not declined much.   AGEB”

      “France has the lowest carbon emissions per person because it’s power is majority nuclear. The United States has the most emissions per person since we are still two-thirds fossil fuel. Germany is in-between with 50% fossil fuel.”

      Solar is provides 3% of Germany’s power ams wind 12%.

      Germany IS funding Next Gen nuclear power as is the EU, China, Russia, India, Japan and other countries. Just do the math to see how much or how little electricity we can get from solar and wind,  And with storage of that electricity more costly than producing it, its not a complete solution.

      Hydro is not the solution either as that’s only 3% in Germany.  And we don”t hear of new hydro projects being proposed.  As the world’s needs for electricity continues to increase next gen nuclear is really the only solution with the technology we have at this time.



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on January 21, 2019, 03:57:34 pm
      . Unfortunately, coal has also increased to about 30%
      You seem to be unable to read a graph.
      Coal has not increased, it stayed steady, while renewablers increased 10 fold, compensating nuke "only"

      Quote
      Solar is provides 3% of Germany’s power ams wind 12%.
      Trolling with old numbers from 20 Years ago.

      https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie_de.htm?year=2018 (https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie_de.htm?year=2018)
      Renewables is at 40.2%. Will soon break the 50% mark.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 21, 2019, 04:12:21 pm
      Numbers are from a recent report.  Why do you immediately call me and troll and not ask so we can have an intelligent discussion?  If we did maybe I or you would learn something.  Calling someone a troll is no way to educate someone or have a discussion with someone.  Have some respect for people with other points of view.

      Do you agree Germany and the EU is supporting next gen nuclear?  Germany recently purchased a super computer to aid in the calculations.

      Just out of curiosity what percentage of Germany’s electricity over the past two months was from solar?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 21, 2019, 04:13:17 pm
      As for cars, just require all new cars to get at least 30 MPG(e) highway, gradually increasing that over time so progress does not stagnate.
      Make that 45MPG and it starts to make sense. In a few years the EU wants new cars to do way better than 45MPG.

      Hey, beware: 30 MPG USA = 36 MPG UK
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 21, 2019, 04:16:53 pm
      As for cars, just require all new cars to get at least 30 MPG(e) highway, gradually increasing that over time so progress does not stagnate.
      Make that 45MPG and it starts to make sense. In a few years the EU wants new cars to do way better than 45MPG.

      Hey, beware: 30 MPG USA = 36 MPG UK

      Is that because a kg is no longer a kg anymore with the new IPK?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 21, 2019, 04:17:21 pm
      Just out of curiosity what percentage of Germany’s electricity over the past two months was from solar?

      https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&remote=true&wind=false&countryCode=DE (https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&remote=true&wind=false&countryCode=DE)

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=630058;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 21, 2019, 04:19:04 pm
      Hey, beware: 30 MPG USA = 36 MPG UK
      Is that because a kg is no longer a kg anymore with the new IPK?

      LOL, no!

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_economy_in_automobiles#Units_of_measure
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 21, 2019, 04:19:43 pm
      As for cars, just require all new cars to get at least 30 MPG(e) highway, gradually increasing that over time so progress does not stagnate.
      Make that 45MPG and it starts to make sense. In a few years the EU wants new cars to do way better than 45MPG.

      Hey, beware: 30 MPG USA = 36 MPG UK
      I know.  8) I calculated with US Gallons.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 21, 2019, 11:27:17 pm
      PV energy could be used to lift water and store it in a large reservoir for use in power generation as it flowed back down.
      We have one system of hydroelectric dams that pump water up again at night, when the electricity is cheap. Something like that could be used for times of surplus generation, like surplus solar or wind, etc.
      I think it is common technology. Even a single dam can have a lower, smaller reservoir, to be able to pump the water up again from there.

      One idea for hydrogen cars, is to use surplus generation to produce hydrogen via electrolysis. It could also be used as storage and turned back into electricity, but i think that the efficiency is not good. No emissions, however.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 22, 2019, 01:51:38 am
      Something's wrong here.....    I asked, "Just out of curiosity what percentage of Germany’s electricity over the past two months was from solar?"

      The link you provided show Germany over the past two months didn't have any solar production.  Yet your post shows around 10GW.  Makes no sense.




       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 22, 2019, 02:23:44 am
      PV energy could be used to lift water and store it in a large reservoir for use in power generation as it flowed back down.
      We have one system of hydroelectric dams that pump water up again at night, when the electricity is cheap. Something like that could be used for times of surplus generation, like surplus solar or wind, etc.
      I think it is common technology. Even a single dam can have a lower, smaller reservoir, to be able to pump the water up again from there.

      One idea for hydrogen cars, is to use surplus generation to produce hydrogen via electrolysis. It could also be used as storage and turned back into electricity, but i think that the efficiency is not good. No emissions, however.

      You need to do a bit of research.  Hydrogen for hydrogen powered cars comes from fossil fuels.  It's too expensive to produce with electricity.  While the resevior system works, just look at how little electricity it actually produces for Germany.  I think I saw less than 3%. 

      This is from eight years ago, "In the U.S., the existing 38 pumped hydroelectric facilities can store just over 2 percent of the country’s electrical generating capacity.  That share is small compared with Europe’s (nearly 5%) and Japan’s (about 10%). But the industry plans to build reservoirs close to existing power plants.  Enough projects are being considered to double capacity."

      Want to guess how many for these "planned to be built" are actually being considered?  In California the answer is 0.  There are issues with fish, water for farmers and people.  I think California has close to 200, and we stopped building them for environmental reasons.  One of the last ones they were building is about 2 hours from me.  It's one of the ones the environmentalists never allowed to be completed.

      While it might sound like it good idea, in practice it doesn't work out that way.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 22, 2019, 02:33:45 am
      Quote
      The reality today is that whenever a nuclear power plant is decommissioned it is replaced by a coal/gas power plant.
      That's not true at all.
      And it makes no sense any more today.

      Wind and utility PV are now much cheaper than fossil, so why replace expensive nukes with expensive fossil ?
      Makes no economic sense at all, nuke replaced by coal is more of a legend.

      An exemple is germany:
      The decomissioning of nukes is ongoing, and they are replaced by renewables.
      <snip>

      Of course that hindered their reduction in coal, but that's their next big target after all nukes are gone, which is scheduled in 2 Years.
      Exactly that hindered their reduction in coal. Every kW of renewables that could have been used to replace coal/gas was instead used to replace* nuclear.

      They choose coal over nuclear. It shows a blatant disregard for human health/life and the environment, only caring about the economical aspect. Apparently to the anti-nuclear crowd human life and the environment isn't worth much.

      Why are Russia building a new LNG pipeline to Germany do you think? Would they do that if they didn't expect to sell a lot more LNG to Germany in the future? It is pure madness to shut down nuclear power plants right now, as long as the alternatives are coal, gas or other forms of burning.

      *As we already know: without a new storage solution, solar and wind can never completely replace coal, gas and nuclear.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 22, 2019, 03:39:06 am
      Quote
      The reality today is that whenever a nuclear power plant is decommissioned it is replaced by a coal/gas power plant.
      That's not true at all.
      And it makes no sense any more today.

      Wind and utility PV are now much cheaper than fossil, so why replace expensive nukes with expensive fossil ?
      Makes no economic sense at all, nuke replaced by coal is more of a legend.

      An exemple is germany:
      The decomissioning of nukes is ongoing, and they are replaced by renewables.
      <snip>

      Of course that hindered their reduction in coal, but that's their next big target after all nukes are gone, which is scheduled in 2 Years.
      Exactly that hindered their reduction in coal. Every kW of renewables that could have been used to replace coal/gas was instead used to replace* nuclear.

      They choose coal over nuclear. It shows a blatant disregard for human health/life and the environment, only caring about the economical aspect. Apparently to the anti-nuclear crowd human life and the environment isn't worth much.

      Why are Russia building a new LNG pipeline to Germany do you think? Would they do that if they didn't expect to sell a lot more LNG to Germany in the future? It is pure madness to shut down nuclear power plants right now, as long as the alternatives are coal, gas or other forms of burning.

      *As we already know: without a new storage solution, solar and wind can never completely replace coal, gas and nuclear.

      Thank you.  I knew Germany was burning more coal and buying more electricity from France's nuclear power plants but didn't get the connection that this is to offset the decommissioning of nuclear power plants.  I've been reading that Germany in Cottbus stopped mining for coal last year unemploying over 5,000.  Something's not making sense.

      It's also hard to beleive in December Germany is getting 12% (?) of there electricity from solar.  Just doesn't seem right.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 22, 2019, 03:58:35 am
      Wikipedia says Germany produced about 7% of it's electricity from solar in 2017.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany#Generation

      If you shut down a power plant, the loss in generated power will have to be offset by an increase somewhere else. You can't say where the electrons in the socket comes from but it has to add up. Less nuclear means you need more of something else.

      Say you had 10 total units of power. If you remove 1 nuclear you have to add 1 of something else (or reduce consumption by 1 which haven't happened).
      Say you also add 1 unit from solar. Now you still have 10. But instead of removing 1 nuclear you could have removed 1 coal. So you have effectively chosen coal over nuclear. It gets worse though, because you can only have, say 7 units solar max, and that means the remaining 3 will have to be something else. If you have already removed all the nuclear, what remains is coal that you can not get rid of (unless you build new nuclear again, but that is not likely). As long as there is coal/gas in the mix it makes no sense to remove nuclear.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 22, 2019, 04:25:22 am
      I hear what you are saying, but here's something I'm not understanding.  If Germany has shut down there coal mines are they buying coal from China?  If the pull the plug on nuclear and no longer mine for coal they are down say by two.  An increase in solar and wind might add an additional .25, but they are still down by 1.75.  Where's they getting they getting the electrons to make-up the difference?  Are they comming from Fracnce's nuclear power plants?  Or are they still burning coal but buying it from say China instead of burning what they have?

      Germany Closes Its Last Active Coal Mine, Ending 200-year-old Industry
      http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/ (http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/)

      https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw (https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on January 22, 2019, 04:50:14 am
      I hear what you are saying, but here's something I'm not understanding.  If Germany has shut down there coal mines are they buying coal from China?  If the pull the plug on nuclear and no longer mine for coal they are down say by two.  An increase in solar and wind might add an additional .25, but they are still down by 1.75.  Where's they getting they getting the electrons to make-up the difference?  Are they comming from Fracnce's nuclear power plants?  Or are they still burning coal but buying it from say China instead of burning what they have?

      Germany Closes Its Last Active Coal Mine, Ending 200-year-old Industry
      http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/ (http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/)

      https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw (https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw)

      Why would China sell coal to Germany, whilst simultaneously buying coal from Australia?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 22, 2019, 04:51:16 am
      I hear what you are saying, but here's something I'm not understanding.  If Germany has shut down there coal mines are they buying coal from China?  If the pull the plug on nuclear and no longer mine for coal they are down say by two.  An increase in solar and wind might add an additional .25, but they are still down by 1.75.  Where's they getting they getting the electrons to make-up the difference?  Are they comming from Fracnce's nuclear power plants?  Or are they still burning coal but buying it from say China instead of burning what they have?

      Germany Closes Its Last Active Coal Mine, Ending 200-year-old Industry
      http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/ (http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/)

      https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw (https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw)

      Why would China sell coal to Germany, whilst simultaneously buying coal from Australia?

      You had better believe they would if they could make a profit.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 22, 2019, 04:55:14 am
      Quote
      The bitter reality for German coal country is supplies will come from Russia and the U.S. for decades to come.
      Quote
      Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government sealed Germany’s exit from coal production in 2007. The plan contrasts with Trump’s efforts to revive the fuel, and the U.S. indeed stands to benefit, exporting 9.1 million tons of coal to Germany last year, second only to Russia’s 19.7 million tons.
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-30/germany-closes-last-coal-mine-despite-decades-of-supplies-needed (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-30/germany-closes-last-coal-mine-despite-decades-of-supplies-needed)

      Says here Germany are net exporters of energy. They still get 148 TWh from brown coal, and 94 TWh from hard coal and LNG 86 TWh:

      (https://energytransition.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/cm1-1024x720.png)

      If they had kept their nuclear they could be down to almost 0% hard coal.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 22, 2019, 05:07:19 am
      Germany Closes Its Last Active Coal Mine, Ending 200-year-old Industry
      This seems to be a half truth, Germany still produce lignite, aka brown coal (the dirtiest form of coal). Or have they shut down these mines as well?

      For example:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Schleenhain_coal_mine

      In 2015 Germany was the worlds largest producer of lignite (178 million metric tons):
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lignite#Production

      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d8/Braunkohletagebau_Schleenhain.jpg/640px-Braunkohletagebau_Schleenhain.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: cdev on January 22, 2019, 06:09:07 am
      WHY do you think the risk of nuclear proliferation is "pretty low for the time being" - just curious?
      Because it worries me a lot and I think thats a legitimate concern, given the large number of potential problems.

      FYI nuclear power plants often produce other kinds of uranium that can be used in nuclear weapons.

      That is a major problem. 

      Solutions, 1. solve the world's problems so NO people end up so angry they become terrorists, or
      2. Wind down the potential risks, remove the nuclear materials from circulation.

      The risk of nuclear weapons proliferation makes me worry quite a bit.

      I understand your concern in theory, although the real risk of ever using them (again) is pretty low for the time being IMO. I admit the storage of those weapons itself is a concern though. Even if we never use them purposefully, they are still there, requiring a constant surveillance.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on January 22, 2019, 08:31:11 am
      I hear what you are saying, but here's something I'm not understanding.  If Germany has shut down there coal mines are they buying coal from China?  If the pull the plug on nuclear and no longer mine for coal they are down say by two.  An increase in solar and wind might add an additional .25, but they are still down by 1.75.  Where's they getting they getting the electrons to make-up the difference?  Are they comming from Fracnce's nuclear power plants?  Or are they still burning coal but buying it from say China instead of burning what they have?

      Germany Closes Its Last Active Coal Mine, Ending 200-year-old Industry
      http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/ (http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/)

      https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw (https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw)

      Why would China sell coal to Germany, whilst simultaneously buying coal from Australia?

      You had better believe they would if they could make a profit.

      I can't really see how they could,.
      The Germans aren't stupid, they would buy direct from Oz.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 22, 2019, 05:10:40 pm
      I hear what you are saying, but here's something I'm not understanding.  If Germany has shut down there coal mines are they buying coal from China?  If the pull the plug on nuclear and no longer mine for coal they are down say by two.  An increase in solar and wind might add an additional .25, but they are still down by 1.75.  Where's they getting they getting the electrons to make-up the difference?  Are they comming from Fracnce's nuclear power plants?  Or are they still burning coal but buying it from say China instead of burning what they have?

      Germany Closes Its Last Active Coal Mine, Ending 200-year-old Industry
      http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/ (http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/)

      https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw (https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw)

      Why would China sell coal to Germany, whilst simultaneously buying coal from Australia?

      You had better believe they would if they could make a profit.

      I can't really see how they could,.
      The Germans aren't stupid, they would buy direct from Oz.

      Don’t you think they would buy from China if it were cheaper?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 22, 2019, 07:00:46 pm

      FYI nuclear power plants often produce other kinds of uranium that can be used in nuclear weapons.

      I think you need to do a bit more research on what it takes to convert nuclear power grade uranium which is 3% into weapons grade uranium which is 97%.  It’s not that easy and takes a lot of energy and time.  We only know of three ways to do the separation and the one that’s the most efficient requires special steel and high speed centrifuges.  The difficulty with the uranium bombs is separatting out the weapons grade uranium.  Weapons grade plutonium is much easer to come by but the problem is getting the bomb to detonate.  There is a UC Berkeley Professor, Dr. Muller who explains all of this in great detail.  Muller was a student of many of the folks who worked on the World War II atomic bombs.  The US pub.lished all of the documents on exactly how to make atomic bombs, so it’s not a secret.  The difficult part is the separation of the isotopes or getting the thing to detonate.

      https://youtu.be/DJbyvCmybuk
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on January 22, 2019, 08:34:37 pm
      Quote
      Do you agree Germany and the EU is supporting next gen nuclear?
      Nope.
      Germany is in the legacy nuclear, with a roadmap to close every remaining plant in 2021, and never get into this risky buisness again.
      They don't fund this BS any more, but they still have to ensure the legacy atomic garbage is preserved properly, so they fund the research to find a long term storage possibility (hint: it's not going well for now, as in every country trying hard to get a working long term storage. All those "long term" leak after less than 20 Years.)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 22, 2019, 09:27:43 pm
      Quote
      Do you agree Germany and the EU is supporting next gen nuclear?
      Nope.
      Germany is in the legacy nuclear, with a roadmap to close every remaining plant in 2021, and never get into this risky buisness again.
      For now... within 15 years you'll see new nuclear power plants being built allover Europe. There simply isn't a cost effective alternative to meet the CO2 reduction requirements. Some politicians in the NL have already noticed that large scale renewables are just a costly pipe dream and are already advocating building new nuclear power plants. Perhaps the first few get build close to the border of Germany so there are technically no new nuclear power plants in Germany but that is just window dressing ofcourse.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 22, 2019, 09:33:58 pm
      (hint: it's not going well for now, as in every country trying hard to get a working long term storage. All those "long term" leak after less than 20 Years.)
      That's obviously not true, there doesn't even exist any long term storage anywhere in the world yet. The first one is being built in Finland, you can read about it here:
      https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/solving-the-back-end-finlands-key-to-the-final-disposal-of-spent-nuclear-fuel (https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/solving-the-back-end-finlands-key-to-the-final-disposal-of-spent-nuclear-fuel)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on January 22, 2019, 10:35:22 pm
      Germany built the world's first one. It was considered bullet proof by the nuke industry. Then it leaked.
      France built the world first one. It was considered bullet proof by the nuke industry. Then it leaked.
      US built their "world first" one. It was considered bullet proof by the nuke industry.  And then they abandoned it without even comissionning it, giving it no chance to leak. Pretty clever marketing here !
      ...
      Your country's next on the long list of failures, it seems.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on January 22, 2019, 10:42:13 pm
      Quote
      For now... within 15 years you'll see new nuclear power plants being built allover Europe.
      Not credible any more. Too expensive considering clean alternatives.
      You're simply living in the past.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 22, 2019, 10:58:20 pm
      Germany built the world's first one. It was considered bullet proof by the nuke industry. Then it leaked.
      France built the world first one. It was considered bullet proof by the nuke industry. Then it leaked.
      US built their "world first" one. It was considered bullet proof by the nuke industry.  And then they abandoned it without even comissionning it, giving it no chance to leak. Pretty clever marketing here !
      ...
      Your country's next on the long list of failures, it seems.
      It would be nice if you could provide some references to back up those claims. It sounds like you don't want it to work?

      Quote
      For now... within 15 years you'll see new nuclear power plants being built allover Europe.
      Not credible any more. Too expensive considering clean alternatives.
      You're simply living in the past.
      What clean alternatives? Do you mean brown coal? Where should electricity come from when the sun doesn't shine? Should we just shut down the food production, medicine production and hospitals, etc, whenever there is not enough sunlight and wind? Why do you not like nuclear when it has been shown to be one of the safest and cleanest forms of energy there is. Maybe not the cheapest (because coal doesn't pay for it's own externalises like nuclear does, nor is it subsidised like solar and wind), but it is certainly clean and safe, some say even cleaner and safer than solar (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/#bf4716c709b7).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 22, 2019, 11:47:58 pm
      Germany built the world's first one. It was considered bullet proof by the nuke industry. Then it leaked.
      France built the world first one. It was considered bullet proof by the nuke industry. Then it leaked.
      US built their "world first" one. It was considered bullet proof by the nuke industry.  And then they abandoned it without even comissionning it, giving it no chance to leak. Pretty clever marketing here !
      ...
      Your country's next on the long list of failures, it seems.
      Interesting.  Do you have references?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 23, 2019, 01:00:48 am
      PV energy could be used to lift water and store it in a large reservoir for use in power generation as it flowed back down.
      We have one system of hydroelectric dams that pump water up again at night, when the electricity is cheap. Something like that could be used for times of surplus generation, like surplus solar or wind, etc.
      I think it is common technology. Even a single dam can have a lower, smaller reservoir, to be able to pump the water up again from there.

      One idea for hydrogen cars, is to use surplus generation to produce hydrogen via electrolysis. It could also be used as storage and turned back into electricity, but i think that the efficiency is not good. No emissions, however.

      You need to do a bit of research.  Hydrogen for hydrogen powered cars comes from fossil fuels.  It's too expensive to produce with electricity.  While the resevior system works, just look at how little electricity it actually produces for Germany.  I think I saw less than 3%. 

      This is from eight years ago, "In the U.S., the existing 38 pumped hydroelectric facilities can store just over 2 percent of the country’s electrical generating capacity.  That share is small compared with Europe’s (nearly 5%) and Japan’s (about 10%). But the industry plans to build reservoirs close to existing power plants.  Enough projects are being considered to double capacity."

      Want to guess how many for these "planned to be built" are actually being considered?  In California the answer is 0.  There are issues with fish, water for farmers and people.  I think California has close to 200, and we stopped building them for environmental reasons.  One of the last ones they were building is about 2 hours from me.  It's one of the ones the environmentalists never allowed to be completed.

      While it might sound like it good idea, in practice it doesn't work out that way.
      It's not economical vs producing it from natural gas, when using power from the grid at the standard price, but if you're looking for something to do with surplus solar or wind generation, that's a special case. Of course, unless the issue of mass production of hydrogen from clean sources is solved, i don't see how the hydrogen car can have any future.

      Pumping water up the dam works here in the conditions it's done. YMMV.

      This is the wikipedia article for this kind of hydroelectric dams: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity)

      This one is also interesting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage)

      Also very interesting. A map with different energy storage plants and projects: http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects.html (http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects.html)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on January 23, 2019, 02:29:49 am
      I hear what you are saying, but here's something I'm not understanding.  If Germany has shut down there coal mines are they buying coal from China?  If the pull the plug on nuclear and no longer mine for coal they are down say by two.  An increase in solar and wind might add an additional .25, but they are still down by 1.75.  Where's they getting they getting the electrons to make-up the difference?  Are they comming from Fracnce's nuclear power plants?  Or are they still burning coal but buying it from say China instead of burning what they have?

      Germany Closes Its Last Active Coal Mine, Ending 200-year-old Industry
      http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/ (http://fortune.com/2018/12/21/germany-closes-last-coal-mine/)

      https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw (https://youtu.be/O2l36Bftruw)

      Why would China sell coal to Germany, whilst simultaneously buying coal from Australia?

      You had better believe they would if they could make a profit.

      I can't really see how they could,.
      The Germans aren't stupid, they would buy direct from Oz.

      Don’t you think they would buy from China if it were cheaper?

      Why would the Chinese make a loss on something where there is no "extra value added" while it is in their
      possession?
      They sell steel, made from Australian iron ore, but the the Chinese contribution is substantial in that case.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 23, 2019, 03:11:31 am
      PV energy could be used to lift water and store it in a large reservoir for use in power generation as it flowed back down.
      We have one system of hydroelectric dams that pump water up again at night, when the electricity is cheap. Something like that could be used for times of surplus generation, like surplus solar or wind, etc.
      I think it is common technology. Even a single dam can have a lower, smaller reservoir, to be able to pump the water up again from there.

      One idea for hydrogen cars, is to use surplus generation to produce hydrogen via electrolysis. It could also be used as storage and turned back into electricity, but i think that the efficiency is not good. No emissions, however.

      You need to do a bit of research.  Hydrogen for hydrogen powered cars comes from fossil fuels.  It's too expensive to produce with electricity.  While the resevior system works, just look at how little electricity it actually produces for Germany.  I think I saw less than 3%. 

      This is from eight years ago, "In the U.S., the existing 38 pumped hydroelectric facilities can store just over 2 percent of the country’s electrical generating capacity.  That share is small compared with Europe’s (nearly 5%) and Japan’s (about 10%). But the industry plans to build reservoirs close to existing power plants.  Enough projects are being considered to double capacity."

      Want to guess how many for these "planned to be built" are actually being considered?  In California the answer is 0.  There are issues with fish, water for farmers and people.  I think California has close to 200, and we stopped building them for environmental reasons.  One of the last ones they were building is about 2 hours from me.  It's one of the ones the environmentalists never allowed to be completed.

      While it might sound like it good idea, in practice it doesn't work out that way.
      It's not economical vs producing it from natural gas, when using power from the grid at the standard price, but if you're looking for something to do with surplus solar or wind generation, that's a special case. Of course, unless the issue of mass production of hydrogen from clean sources is solved, i don't see how the hydrogen car can have any future.

      Pumping water up the dam works here in the conditions it's done. YMMV.

      This is the wikipedia article for this kind of hydroelectric dams: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity)

      This one is also interesting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage)

      Also very interesting. A map with different energy storage plants and projects: http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects.html (http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects.html)

      No one is saying it doesn't work.  It's a 100+ year old technology which has been proven.  I live in California and we have around 200.  We've built all we can.  The terrain is such there are any other locations suitable for building any more.  Then we have water shortages and environmentalist who don't want to see them get built.


      The mass production of hydrogen comes from fossil fuels.

      While what you are saying is all good, the problem is we have built all we can, and there aren't any other sites suitable for building any more.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 23, 2019, 04:41:53 am
      Posting links to 4 videos which folks might be interested in if you would like to know how to make an atomic bomb. Or if you would like to understand how the Chernobyl meltdown occurred.  (It was a stupid design, no safety mechanisms.)

      Prof. Richard Muller explains nuclear meltdown and Chernobyl
      The Politics of Physics - Uranium, Bombs and Iran - Part 1
      The Politics of Physics - Uranium, Bombs and Iran - Part 2
      How to enrich Uranium - Periodic Table of Videos

      https://youtu.be/UeVIzHEh7a4

      https://youtu.be/eLrylcHtIS4

      https://youtu.be/4nIL0-vvxfg

      https://youtu.be/69UpMhUnEeY
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 23, 2019, 06:17:15 am
      Quote
      For now... within 15 years you'll see new nuclear power plants being built allover Europe.
      Not credible any more. Too expensive considering clean alternatives.
      Name the alternatives complete with a TCO analysis. Many people are talking about renewables but their numbers never add up to a solution which is financially and technically viable.  :bullshit:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 23, 2019, 06:28:02 pm
      PV energy could be used to lift water and store it in a large reservoir for use in power generation as it flowed back down.
      We have one system of hydroelectric dams that pump water up again at night, when the electricity is cheap. Something like that could be used for times of surplus generation, like surplus solar or wind, etc.
      I think it is common technology. Even a single dam can have a lower, smaller reservoir, to be able to pump the water up again from there.

      One idea for hydrogen cars, is to use surplus generation to produce hydrogen via electrolysis. It could also be used as storage and turned back into electricity, but i think that the efficiency is not good. No emissions, however.

      You need to do a bit of research.  Hydrogen for hydrogen powered cars comes from fossil fuels.  It's too expensive to produce with electricity.  While the resevior system works, just look at how little electricity it actually produces for Germany.  I think I saw less than 3%. 

      This is from eight years ago, "In the U.S., the existing 38 pumped hydroelectric facilities can store just over 2 percent of the country’s electrical generating capacity.  That share is small compared with Europe’s (nearly 5%) and Japan’s (about 10%). But the industry plans to build reservoirs close to existing power plants.  Enough projects are being considered to double capacity."

      Want to guess how many for these "planned to be built" are actually being considered?  In California the answer is 0.  There are issues with fish, water for farmers and people.  I think California has close to 200, and we stopped building them for environmental reasons.  One of the last ones they were building is about 2 hours from me.  It's one of the ones the environmentalists never allowed to be completed.

      While it might sound like it good idea, in practice it doesn't work out that way.
      It's not economical vs producing it from natural gas, when using power from the grid at the standard price, but if you're looking for something to do with surplus solar or wind generation, that's a special case. Of course, unless the issue of mass production of hydrogen from clean sources is solved, i don't see how the hydrogen car can have any future.

      Pumping water up the dam works here in the conditions it's done. YMMV.

      This is the wikipedia article for this kind of hydroelectric dams: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumped-storage_hydroelectricity)

      This one is also interesting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage)

      Also very interesting. A map with different energy storage plants and projects: http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects.html (http://www.energystorageexchange.org/projects.html)

      No one is saying it doesn't work.  It's a 100+ year old technology which has been proven.  I live in California and we have around 200.  We've built all we can.  The terrain is such there are any other locations suitable for building any more.  Then we have water shortages and environmentalist who don't want to see them get built.


      The mass production of hydrogen comes from fossil fuels.

      While what you are saying is all good, the problem is we have built all we can, and there aren't any other sites suitable for building any more.
      Well, yes, you cannot build a dam in any place you want, but it's not the only option for energy storage. Take a look at the link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage) . Some interesting technologies there.
      Maybe you don't need to store that much, if the grid is large enough to transport the energy where the demand is.
      With solar, half of the earth is lit and half is dark at any time. Not so easy to transport such large amounts of energy, of course, or to make a grid so large, but maybe that's what will be needed at some point. HVDC power transmission is an interesting technology for this.
      Anyways, at some point, when fossil fuels get more and more scarce, changes will be unavoidable. A pity that most of the time, decisions are made with just money in consideration, and at short-term (because most politics don't give a damn about stuff that isn't immediately allowing them to be re-elected). Considering all the problems with coal, the fact that so much of it is used to produce electricity is a sad reminder of how slow are the world leaders reacting to the warnings that scientists are giving us from decades.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 23, 2019, 07:32:10 pm
      Well, yes, you cannot build a dam in any place you want, but it's not the only option for energy storage. Take a look at the link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage) . Some interesting technologies there.
      Note that most of the things listed on the page are just ideas that may or may not play out and have a bright future. The only thing with a proven track record seems to be pumped storage,
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 23, 2019, 10:20:10 pm
      It is great that there are more investments in renewable, and hopefully someone can create enough storage for it to take over completely (although I doubt it will be anytime soon).

      Until they have replaced all the fossil fuel for electricity and district heating we should keep nuclear and even expand it so that we can get rid of fossil fuels as fast as possible (because of air pollution, greenhouse gases, ocean acidification, mercury, etc, etc).

      Once we no longer produce any electricity by burning stuff, in particular fossil fuels, you can begin replacing the nuclear power plants.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 24, 2019, 05:32:19 am
      Well, yes, you cannot build a dam in any place you want, but it's not the only option for energy storage. Take a look at the link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage) . Some interesting technologies there.
      Maybe you don't need to store that much, if the grid is large enough to transport the energy where the demand is.
      With solar, half of the earth is lit and half is dark at any time. Not so easy to transport such large amounts of energy, of course, or to make a grid so large, but maybe that's what will be needed at some point. HVDC power transmission is an interesting technology for this.
      Anyways, at some point, when fossil fuels get more and more scarce, changes will be unavoidable.


      The picture in the link you provided are very interesting.  Did you look at it?
      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/37/Energy-Units-01.png
      A sense of units and scale for electrical energy production and consumption.

      Take a look at how little solar and wind produces compared to just one nuclear power plant.

      I have been to Hover dam.  Hard to belevive something that huge produces so little electrictiy.  With that said, I wonder just how large Itaipu dam is.
      This might not be as great as a solution as it sounds.  Over the past 20 years the water level in Hover dam had dropped 200 feet.  What happens when we run out of water?

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 24, 2019, 03:24:30 pm
      Well, yes, you cannot build a dam in any place you want, but it's not the only option for energy storage. Take a look at the link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage) . Some interesting technologies there.
      Maybe you don't need to store that much, if the grid is large enough to transport the energy where the demand is.
      With solar, half of the earth is lit and half is dark at any time. Not so easy to transport such large amounts of energy, of course, or to make a grid so large, but maybe that's what will be needed at some point. HVDC power transmission is an interesting technology for this.
      Anyways, at some point, when fossil fuels get more and more scarce, changes will be unavoidable.


      The picture in the link you provided are very interesting.  Did you look at it?
      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/37/Energy-Units-01.png
      A sense of units and scale for electrical energy production and consumption.

      Take a look at how little solar and wind produces compared to just one nuclear power plant.

      I have been to Hover dam.  Hard to belevive something that huge produces so little electrictiy.  With that said, I wonder just how large Itaipu dam is.
      This might not be as great as a solution as it sounds.  Over the past 20 years the water level in Hover dam had dropped 200 feet.  What happens when we run out of water?
      Yes, it seems like there aren't a lot of solar and wind turbines out there, isn't it? Only China has a 24000 MWh/day wind farm. The graph is a little bit outdated, as it lists Fukushima, and it didn't go very well back in 2011.
      The graph doesn't really tells you much about the pros and cons of running different power plants, it's just a snapshot in time of the energy production, from at least 8 years ago, i presume.
      Wind and solar are relatively new, evolving technologies. The Sun shines 1000 MW per square kilometer on the earth's surface. That's not too shabby. I'm fairly sure that as time goes on, we are going to see more and more of them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 24, 2019, 04:12:57 pm
      Well, yes, you cannot build a dam in any place you want, but it's not the only option for energy storage. Take a look at the link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage) . Some interesting technologies there.
      Maybe you don't need to store that much, if the grid is large enough to transport the energy where the demand is.
      With solar, half of the earth is lit and half is dark at any time. Not so easy to transport such large amounts of energy, of course, or to make a grid so large, but maybe that's what will be needed at some point. HVDC power transmission is an interesting technology for this.
      Anyways, at some point, when fossil fuels get more and more scarce, changes will be unavoidable.


      The picture in the link you provided are very interesting.  Did you look at it?
      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/37/Energy-Units-01.png
      A sense of units and scale for electrical energy production and consumption.

      Take a look at how little solar and wind produces compared to just one nuclear power plant.

      I have been to Hover dam.  Hard to belevive something that huge produces so little electrictiy.  With that said, I wonder just how large Itaipu dam is.
      This might not be as great as a solution as it sounds.  Over the past 20 years the water level in Hover dam had dropped 200 feet.  What happens when we run out of water?
      Yes, it seems like there aren't a lot of solar and wind turbines out there, isn't it? Only China has a 24000 MWh/day wind farm. The graph is a little bit outdated, as it lists Fukushima, and it didn't go very well back in 2011.
      The graph doesn't really tells you much about the pros and cons of running different power plants, it's just a snapshot in time of the energy production, from at least 8 years ago, i presume.
      Wind and solar are relatively new, evolving technologies. The Sun shines 1000 MW per square kilometer on the earth's surface. That's not too shabby. I'm fairly sure that as time goes on, we are going to see more and more of them.

      Doesn’t matter that it’s from 8 years ago, the relative numbers have not changed.
      You make a very good point about the sun’s energy hitting the Earth.  Just think if we could convert all of that 1000 to electricity we would be incomplete darkness and nothing would grow.  We would have to use the electricity we produce for lighting and to grow crops.  Better to let the sun do it.

      Do you have any idea how much aluminum, steel and concrete is would be needed to provide one quarter of the world with electricity from solar with the current technology?  It would take all of the aluminum and steal that’s ever been mined and all of the concrete that’s ever been poured.

      While what you are saying sounds good in theory, it’s the practicality that gets in the way.  Much like people who invent perpetual motion machines.  There’s that one issues that can’t seem to figure out....It takes energy to power the machine.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 24, 2019, 06:11:08 pm
      Well, yes, you cannot build a dam in any place you want, but it's not the only option for energy storage. Take a look at the link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage) . Some interesting technologies there.
      Maybe you don't need to store that much, if the grid is large enough to transport the energy where the demand is.
      With solar, half of the earth is lit and half is dark at any time. Not so easy to transport such large amounts of energy, of course, or to make a grid so large, but maybe that's what will be needed at some point. HVDC power transmission is an interesting technology for this.
      Anyways, at some point, when fossil fuels get more and more scarce, changes will be unavoidable.


      The picture in the link you provided are very interesting.  Did you look at it?
      https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/37/Energy-Units-01.png (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/37/Energy-Units-01.png)
      A sense of units and scale for electrical energy production and consumption.

      Take a look at how little solar and wind produces compared to just one nuclear power plant.

      I have been to Hover dam.  Hard to belevive something that huge produces so little electrictiy.  With that said, I wonder just how large Itaipu dam is.
      This might not be as great as a solution as it sounds.  Over the past 20 years the water level in Hover dam had dropped 200 feet.  What happens when we run out of water?
      Yes, it seems like there aren't a lot of solar and wind turbines out there, isn't it? Only China has a 24000 MWh/day wind farm. The graph is a little bit outdated, as it lists Fukushima, and it didn't go very well back in 2011.
      The graph doesn't really tells you much about the pros and cons of running different power plants, it's just a snapshot in time of the energy production, from at least 8 years ago, i presume.
      Wind and solar are relatively new, evolving technologies. The Sun shines 1000 MW per square kilometer on the earth's surface. That's not too shabby. I'm fairly sure that as time goes on, we are going to see more and more of them.

      Doesn’t matter that it’s from 8 years ago, the relative numbers have not changed.
      You make a very good point about the sun’s energy hitting the Earth.  Just think if we could convert all of that 1000 to electricity we would be incomplete darkness and nothing would grow.  We would have to use the electricity we produce for lighting and to grow crops.  Better to let the sun do it.

      Do you have any idea how much aluminum, steel and concrete is would be needed to provide one quarter of the world with electricity from solar with the current technology?  It would take all of the aluminum and steal that’s ever been mined and all of the concrete that’s ever been poured.

      While what you are saying sounds good in theory, it’s the practicality that gets in the way.  Much like people who invent perpetual motion machines.  There’s that one issues that can’t seem to figure out....It takes energy to power the machine.
      Do you have any source that support that information? It looks a little bit excessive.
      The total amount of electricity consumed worldwide was 19,504 TWh in 2013. So, that's about 2.23 TW of average power. If we said that you have 1 GW of power from the Sun in 1 Km2 on the surface of the Earth, that means that the power is available in 2226 Km2, or a square of 47 by 47 Km. Double that, because half the earth is dark at any time. And there's the issue with the effciency also. But you clearly don't need to cover the whole world with solar panels and/or concentration solar plants, or anything like that.
      Even when calculating from the total energy use (not only electricity), the result seems to be a smaller surface than one could think at first: https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2016/09/22/we-could-power-the-entire-world-by-harnessing-solar-energy-from-1-of-the-sahara/#7e7964a9d440 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2016/09/22/we-could-power-the-entire-world-by-harnessing-solar-energy-from-1-of-the-sahara/#7e7964a9d440)
      Of course, you won't rely completely in solar, you will also have wind, hydro, and nuclear. But let's try to build all the renewables we can, and supplement with nuclear. Not the other way around.

      PD: Interesting table i found in one of the wikipedia pages. It lists electricity consumption per country divided as Fossil, Nuclear, and Renewables: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_energy_consumption#World_electricity_consumption_(2012) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_energy_consumption#World_electricity_consumption_(2012))
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 24, 2019, 08:04:31 pm
      Do you have any idea how much aluminum, steel and concrete is would be needed to provide one quarter of the world with electricity from solar with the current technology?  It would take all of the aluminum and steal that’s ever been mined and all of the concrete that’s ever been poured.
      Solar panels are made of mostly silicon, and there is an abundance of silicon on earth (sand is mainly silicon dioxide for example). As fsr said you only need to cover a few percent of a suitable desert to cover the entire worlds electricity demand. But we also need energy for heating and solar isn't well suited to that. In theory you could use electric heating I suppose, but we would need much more electricity then (~7x). Coincidentally nuclear produce a lot of heat that is often wasted because people have made it illegal to use it for district heating due to the irrational fear of all things nuclear.

      The only problem with solar for electricity production (that I'm aware of) is storage, but that is a big problem that prevents it from being the final solution. Until that problem is solved we need alternatives that produce electricity when it's dark. Nuclear + solar would probably be enough to replace fossil fuels, but the problem is it takes a lot of time to build new nuclear and solar power plants. (As we have seen, people are doing the opposite shutting down nuclear power plants and building new fossil fuel plants so it's hard to be optimistic about the future.)

      (https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/image/7448160-3x2-700x467.jpg)
      Quote
      IMAGE: MAP SHOWING SOLAR RADIATION ACROSS AUSTRALIA.  THE SMALL RED DOT IN THE CENTRE SHOWS THE AREA OF AUSTRALIA THAT WOULD BE REQUIRED TO PRODUCE ALL OF AUSTRALIA’S ELECTRICITY USING SOLAR ENERGY.   THE LARGE GREEN DOT SHOWS THE AREA REQUIRED TO PRODUCE THE ENTIRE WORLD’S ELECTRICITY
      https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/big-solar-%E2%80%93-australian-sunlight-could-power-the-planet/7451890 (https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/big-solar-%E2%80%93-australian-sunlight-could-power-the-planet/7451890)

      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/db/Solar_land_area.png)
      Quote
      Solar areas defined by the dark disks could provide more than the world's total primary energy demand (assuming a conversion efficiency of 8%). That is, all energy currently consumed, including heat, electricity, fossil fuels, etc., would be produced in the form of electricity by solar cells. The colors in the map show the local solar irradiance averaged over three years from 1991 to 1993 (24 hours a day) taking into account the cloud coverage available from weather satellites.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy#/media/File:Solar_land_area.png (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy#/media/File:Solar_land_area.png)

      The Sun shines 1000 MW per square kilometer on the earth's surface.
      Not quite. A clear day you can get about 1kW/m2 on a surface perpendicular to the direction towards the sun, but not the surface of the earth (which often isn't perpendicular to the sun).

      Outside the atmosphere sunlight have a fairly constant power of ~1.362 kW/m². About 26% of that is lost because of the atmosphere which leaves ~1 kW/m2 on a clear day. Clouds reflect on average ~20%. The area of a sphere is 4πr2 and the earths cross section towards the sun is a disk with area πr2, so on average you get 1/4 the power per surface area. In total the average is about 1.362*0.54*0.25 = 184 W/m2. However it depends a lot on the location, as can be seen in the plots above. Near the equator you get much higher average insolation, closer to 300 W/m2. In northern Europe you unfortunately only get about 100 w/m2. Still a respectable amount, but one has to remember that it is the yearly average, it will vary a lot with time of year and weather conditions. During winter (when energy demand is highest) production from solar drops to almost nothing this far to the north. Conversely, if you live in a warm climate near the equator, you might have higher energy demand during peak insolation because people use airconditioning to cool their buildings.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 25, 2019, 01:10:51 am
      The Sun shines 1000 MW per square kilometer on the earth's surface.
      Not quite. A clear day you can get about 1kW/m2 on a surface perpendicular to the direction towards the sun, but not the surface of the earth (which often isn't perpendicular to the sun).

      Outside the atmosphere sunlight have a fairly constant power of ~1.362 kW/m². About 26% of that is lost because of the atmosphere which leaves ~1 kW/m2 on a clear day. Clouds reflect on average ~20%. The area of a sphere is 4πr2 and the earths cross section towards the sun is a disk with area πr2, so on average you get 1/4 the power per surface area. In total the average is about 1.362*0.54*0.25 = 184 W/m2. However it depends a lot on the location, as can be seen in the plots above. Near the equator you get much higher average insolation, closer to 300 W/m2. In northern Europe you unfortunately only get about 100 w/m2. Still a respectable amount, but one has to remember that it is the yearly average, it will vary a lot with time of year and weather conditions. During winter (when energy demand is highest) production from solar drops to almost nothing this far to the north. Conversely, if you live in a warm climate near the equator, you might have higher energy demand during peak insolation because people use airconditioning to cool their buildings.
      [/quote]
      Agreed. Sun power varies with location, time of the year, time of day, and weather conditions.
      The 1 kW/m2 is often cited. Is it incorrect, or it's reasonable in certain conditions, like when panels are installed at an angle, so that they're perpendicular to the rays of the Sun?
      As you said, there are deserts out there that are ideal for solar power, but to make the best use of them to power all latitudes would require an international grid, which would have it's technical challenges, and sadly, still bigger political challenges. In fact, if the grid is large enough, then storage would be less of an issue, because the sun is always shining somewhere, and there is always peak demand somewhere and valley demand elsewhere. But yeah, not the easiest thing to do.
      But, if you have hydro and solar/wind, you don't need to use as much water when solar/wind is supplying the demand, at least partially. That could be considered some kind of energy storage, specially if the hydro can supply the demand when solar/wind is low, thanks to the fact that now you don't use as much water when the sun is shining and/or the wind is blowing.

      Why do you say that solar isn't good for heating? There are some solar water heaters, and they say that they reduce a lot of the gas needed to heat the water:

      (http://solarproargentina.com/wp-content/uploads/P1010779-energia-solar-pro-cordoba-300x225.jpg)

      When i traveled to some provinces in the north of my country, you see them everywhere. And i've seen some of them even here in Buenos Aires.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 25, 2019, 01:16:58 am
      What percentage of a solar panel is silicon vs aluminum?  Every solar panel I have seen has an aluminum frame.  When it comes to a large ground mounted then use steel and concreate.  The amount of steel aluminum and concrete is far greater than the amount of silicon.  It is the solar and wind turbine industry association and  which is saying we would have to use all of the steel and aluminum ever mined and all of the concrete ever poured. 

      There’s a fault in the logic of these maps.  We don’t have the technology to covert all of the sun’s energy into electricity.  What the maps are showing is what is theoretically possible the only problem is we don’t have the technology to do it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on January 25, 2019, 02:16:28 am
      What percentage of a solar panel is silicon vs aluminum?  Every solar panel I have seen has an aluminum frame.  When it comes to a large ground mounted then use steel and concreate.  The amount of steel aluminum and concrete is far greater than the amount of silicon.  It is the solar and wind turbine industry association and  which is saying we would have to use all of the steel and aluminum ever mined and all of the concrete ever poured. 

      There’s a fault in the logic of these maps.  We don’t have the technology to covert all of the sun’s energy into electricity.  What the maps are showing is what is theoretically possible the only problem is we don’t have the technology to do it.

      They don't expect that.
      They quote 8% conversion efficiency.
      What is the real killer is getting the Electricity from where it is made, to where it is used.

      There are some things which ameliorate this problem, but which are (obviously) not the "magic bullet" to cure all ills.

      What is done in Western Australia is that many remote (& we have some really remote ones), small towns produce their own power, either from solar, (with diesel for when the Sun isn't shining), or wind, or a combination of all three.
      Even "Roadhouses" in "the middle of nowhere" have their own small "Solar farms".(They sell fuel, so they want to be able to keep the lion's share of their diesel fuel to sell, not burn it for no profit).

      This saves the tonnes of steel & concrete which would otherwise be used to build thousands of kilometres of  electricity transmission towers to bring power from the larger population centres.

      This way of doing things would work well in many African countries, & maybe already does.
      OK, it isn't powering the World, but it is an effective way to supply power in very large, sparsely populated countries.

      In cities, rooftop solar generation on individual homes is common.
      Solar hot water systems are ubiquitous in Australia, & have been for years.
      Both save a considerable amount of otherwise needed fossil fuel, over time.

      OK, they aren't as effective in Northern Europe, or the Northern States of the USA, but many people live in countries with good levels of sunlight year round.

      That said, the "powers that be" seem to have managed to stuff up electricity supply royally in the Eastern States of this country.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 25, 2019, 02:33:21 am
      What percentage of a solar panel is silicon vs aluminum?  Every solar panel I have seen has an aluminum frame.  When it comes to a large ground mounted then use steel and concreate.  The amount of steel aluminum and concrete is far greater than the amount of silicon.  It is the solar and wind turbine industry association and  which is saying we would have to use all of the steel and aluminum ever mined and all of the concrete ever poured. 

      There’s a fault in the logic of these maps.  We don’t have the technology to covert all of the sun’s energy into electricity.  What the maps are showing is what is theoretically possible the only problem is we don’t have the technology to do it.

      They don't expect that.
      They quote 8% conversion efficiency.
      What is the real killer is getting the Electricity from where it is made, to where it is used.

      There are some things which ameliorate this problem, but which are (obviously) not the "magic bullet" to cure all ills.

      What is done in Western Australia is that many remote (& we have some really remote ones), small towns produce their own power, either from solar, (with diesel for when the Sun isn't shining), or wind, or a combination of all three.
      Even "Roadhouses" in "the middle of nowhere" have their own small "Solar farms".(They sell fuel, so they want to be able to keep the lion's share of their diesel fuel to sell, not burn it for no profit).

      This saves the tonnes of steel & concrete which would otherwise be used to build thousands of kilometres of  electricity transmission towers to bring power from the larger population centres.

      This way of doing things would work well in many African countries, & maybe already does.
      OK, it isn't powering the World, but it is an effective way to supply power in very large, sparsely populated countries.

      In cities, rooftop solar generation on individual homes is common.
      Solar hot water systems are ubiquitous in Australia, & have been for years.
      Both save a considerable amount of otherwise needed fossil fuel, over time.

      OK, they aren't as effective in Northern Europe, or the Northern States of the USA, but many people live in countries with good levels of sunlight year round.

      That said, the "powers that be" seem to have managed to stuff up electricity supply royally in the Eastern States of this country.

      Interesting, thanks for sharing.  I know Russia's solution to providing power at remote locations was nuclear.  They powered (and maybe still do) power light houses, aircraft navigational aids with nuclear.  Liquid hydrocarbon fuels would be way too expensive.  And solar and wind would not be practical.  They found nuclear to be "best" solution.


      In the United States it is very rare to see any houses or buildings with solar hot water heaters except for pools.  I recently priced one for my house and it was crazy expensive.  Fuel costs, natural gas prices are so low here it I would be paying an ernormous premium to use the sun to make hot water.  I don't live where it freezes.  But if I didn't the cost goes up even more.  A lot more.

      Solar will never work in large cities with tall buidling for obvious reasons.  While they might work for remote road houses where you are, we aren't as sparsely populated.  I suspect where thouse road houses are hydroelectric is out of the question.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on January 25, 2019, 02:36:16 am
      [quote author=fsr link=topic=101254.msg2145658#
      Why do you say that solar isn't good for heating? There are some solar water heaters, and they say that they reduce a lot of the gas needed to heat the water:

      (http://solarproargentina.com/wp-content/uploads/P1010779-energia-solar-pro-cordoba-300x225.jpg)

      When i traveled to some provinces in the north of my country, you see them everywhere. And i've seen some of them even here in Buenos Aires.

      They are very common in Australia.
      Mine has an "electric booster", but it doesn't come on often.
      One year, as an experiment, I left the booster turned off all year, & we got through with no problems.

      Strangely, the only place I've seen them not perform well, is in the far North Kimberley region of Western Australia.

      My old work decided the price of electricity was too high, so left the booster out of circuit.
      In the "Dry" season, with 40C heat & cloudless days, it worked a treat, but then, the cold water was pretty hot too! ( pipes run on the surface of the ground).

      In the "Wet" season, it rained heavily, & the sky was full of clouds.
      We would come in after being drenched in a Tropical downpour, then have no warm shower.
      OK, people will say "But it's the Tropics---it's warm rain".
      Nope! It still makes you feel cold & miserable.

      That said, there were reasonably sunny days from time to time, so you could occasionally get a nice warm shower.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 25, 2019, 03:07:12 am
      The 1 kW/m2 is often cited. Is it incorrect, or it's reasonable in certain conditions, like when panels are installed at an angle, so that they're perpendicular to the rays of the Sun?
      The number is correct it's just used in the wrong way here. 1 kW/m2 is the maximum possible insolation under ideal conditions (if you have a clear day and the solar panel is directed perpendicular to the sun). So at the equator you could get 1 TW sunlight from a km2 on a clear day, but only for a short time during noon when the sun is at zenit. During the morning and evening as the sun rises and sets the output drops and during night it will be zero of course. The solar panels only have an efficiency of about 20% at best so a 1 km2 PV panel installation at the equator could have a peak output of about 200 MW, but the yearly average output would be at most about 55 MW (assuming 275 W/m2).

      The 1 kW/m2 is the global yearly average maximum value. I suppose that If the sun at a low altitude the light has to pass through a longer column of air and that value might be a bit lower, and conversely if the sun is right above you it passes through a shorter column of air and the value would be a bit higher.

      When you calculate how much land area you need, it doesn't help to angle the solar panel since it will cast a long shadow on the ground. You can get more power out of the solar panels by angling them, so you should do that, but in that case you will have to spread them out more so they don't shadow each other, so you will still have to use a larger land area.

      When calculating how much energy can be produced it's also wrong to use the 1 kW/m2 figure, since that is just the maximum solar power you get under ideal conditions. You need to use the average insolation over the day (and year) and also take into account the average cloud cover. So calculating how much output you will get from a solar panel installation is actually rather tricky, but the second picture should give a rough idea of what amount of sunlight to expect at different locations. Then you also have to take into account that a solar panel is at most about 22% efficient, and you get additional losses in inverters and battery storage and so on.

      As you said, there are deserts out there that are ideal for solar power, but to make the best use of them to power all latitudes would require an international grid, which would have it's technical challenges, and sadly, still bigger political challenges. In fact, if the grid is large enough, then storage would be less of an issue, because the sun is always shining somewhere, and there is always peak demand somewhere and valley demand elsewhere. But yeah, not the easiest thing to do.
      Yes, absolutely. It also helps if you have a wind power farms at different locations, since it's less likely there are no wind everywhere. So that helps balance things a bit as well.

      But, if you have hydro and solar/wind, you don't need to use as much water when solar/wind is supplying the demand, at least partially. That could be considered some kind of energy storage, specially if the hydro can supply the demand when solar/wind is low, thanks to the fact that now you don't use as much water when the sun is shining and/or the wind is blowing.
      Sweden and Norway has a lot of hydro and it is being used that way. Denmark uses a lot of wind power and is basically relying on our hydro to act as storage for them. But hydro still has a limited capacity and the amount of of water that is available in the dams is weather dependent. I suppose they could add reverse pumps to the power dams as well, I don't think they have that at the moment, but I do not believe it would be near enough to work as storage for all of Europe. Sweden use nuclear power despite all the hydro and wind power, and we also have coal/gas for backup heating during winters.

      Why do you say that solar isn't good for heating? There are some solar water heaters, and they say that they reduce a lot of the gas needed to heat the water:

      (http://solarproargentina.com/wp-content/uploads/P1010779-energia-solar-pro-cordoba-300x225.jpg)
      That is great, but I was thinking of heating buildings here in Scandinavia during winter for example, and solar heaters wouldn't be enough (especially since there is very little sunlight in the winter). Old houses are often poorly insulated, so they need a lot of energy to heat up, and it is very hard to add insulation today since it causes moisture and mould problems. Newer houses could be built with better insulation but even so called passive houses have backup wood stoves for heating here.

      There are also industrial processes that require a lot of heat (like cement making) and they typically generate heat by burning coal/gas today. It's hard to see how that could be done effectively using solar. You could use electricity to generate heat of course, but that would require a lot more electricity being produced.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on January 25, 2019, 03:13:46 am
      What percentage of a solar panel is silicon vs aluminum?  Every solar panel I have seen has an aluminum frame.  When it comes to a large ground mounted then use steel and concreate.  The amount of steel aluminum and concrete is far greater than the amount of silicon.  It is the solar and wind turbine industry association and  which is saying we would have to use all of the steel and aluminum ever mined and all of the concrete ever poured. 

      There’s a fault in the logic of these maps.  We don’t have the technology to covert all of the sun’s energy into electricity.  What the maps are showing is what is theoretically possible the only problem is we don’t have the technology to do it.

      They don't expect that.
      They quote 8% conversion efficiency.
      What is the real killer is getting the Electricity from where it is made, to where it is used.

      There are some things which ameliorate this problem, but which are (obviously) not the "magic bullet" to cure all ills.

      What is done in Western Australia is that many remote (& we have some really remote ones), small towns produce their own power, either from solar, (with diesel for when the Sun isn't shining), or wind, or a combination of all three.
      Even "Roadhouses" in "the middle of nowhere" have their own small "Solar farms".(They sell fuel, so they want to be able to keep the lion's share of their diesel fuel to sell, not burn it for no profit).

      This saves the tonnes of steel & concrete which would otherwise be used to build thousands of kilometres of  electricity transmission towers to bring power from the larger population centres.

      This way of doing things would work well in many African countries, & maybe already does.
      OK, it isn't powering the World, but it is an effective way to supply power in very large, sparsely populated countries.

      In cities, rooftop solar generation on individual homes is common.
      Solar hot water systems are ubiquitous in Australia, & have been for years.
      Both save a considerable amount of otherwise needed fossil fuel, over time.

      OK, they aren't as effective in Northern Europe, or the Northern States of the USA, but many people live in countries with good levels of sunlight year round.

      That said, the "powers that be" seem to have managed to stuff up electricity supply royally in the Eastern States of this country.

      Interesting, thanks for sharing.  I know Russia's solution to providing power at remote locations was nuclear.  They powered (and maybe still do) power light houses, aircraft navigational aids with nuclear.  Liquid hydrocarbon fuels would be way too expensive.  And solar and wind would not be practical.  They found nuclear to be "best" solution.


      In the United States it is very rare to see any houses or buildings with solar hot water heaters except for pools.  I recently priced one for my house and it was crazy expensive.  Fuel costs, natural gas prices are so low here it I would be paying an ernormous premium to use the sun to make hot water.  I don't live where it freezes.  But if I didn't the cost goes up even more.  A lot more.

      Solar will never work in large cities with tall buidling for obvious reasons.  While they might work for remote road houses where you are, we aren't as sparsely populated.  I suspect where thouse road houses are hydroelectric is out of the question.

       I can't see why solar HWS are so expensive in the USA, except, obviously, those areas where it freezes.
      If you don't have to account for that, there should be no difference to Oz.
      Maybe regulatory problems over multiple States?

      Here, solar HWS are a little more costly than other types, but the quite small "premium" is soon paid for in savings in  gas or electricity use.

      Very few city dwellers in Australia live in tall apartment buildings.
      The normal type of house is a single or two storey detached house or group of attached houses.

      All of these have plenty of roof area to place solar devices, either panels, or hot water systems.
      Many people criticise this "urban sprawl" but it has advantages.
      Even if you sprinkle a reasonable  number of high rise buildings amongst this sprawl, the likelihood of being shadowed is small.

      In the Central Business District of each city, there are tall buildings aplenty, but the minority of people who live there don't burn as much fossil fuel travelling, so we can pretty much balance that against the fact they can't put stuff on the roof!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 25, 2019, 04:00:16 am
      It almost sounds like Australia uses lots of solar so I took a look at what Australia use to generate electricity:

      (https://www.energycouncil.com.au/media/6433/2016-11-17-fig-1-senate.jpg)

      ouch.

      If you look at total energy use it gets worse:
      Oil37.7%
      Coal31.5%
      Gas24.7%
      Renewables6.2%
      page 7: https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/australian_energy_update_2018.pdf (https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/australian_energy_update_2018.pdf)

      Something very strange is going on there, considering Australia are about as ideal for solar power as it gets.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 25, 2019, 04:01:44 am
      Here's what's we are being told in the States.

      The Cost of a Solar Water Heater. A solar water heater is around $8,000 to $10,000 including installation, though the price tag could go well up from there depending on the size, quality, and complexity of the system. Figure it'll take two to four days to install.

      The average homeowner spends $3,502 to install a solar water heater. There are installation and equipment considerations which put costs between $1,868 and $5,368. Higher-end models and components could cost up to $13,000.
      The overall price is greatly influenced by the type of collector chosen. Bulk collectors are $500 while evacuated tubes and flat plates can be up to $2,500. The tank and parts will add between $500 and $1,500 to the equipment total, for a combined $1,000-$4,000 before labor and permits. Labor for this kind of work tends to run $70 per hour. Add up to and over $1,000 if a backup heater is necessary.

      Now compare that to a natural gas water heater tank or tankless.  They run around $1,000.  Houses are already plumbed for tank and easily modifed for tankless.  A solar hot water heater quipment is $2,500 on Amazon.  Forget installation costs, just to break even on the equipmnet it would have to save me $1,500 or so in natural gas.  I think we spend around $25 for natural gas to heat the water.  That's about 5 years just to break even on the fuel.  Then you have to factor in the installation costs and the posibility of a premature failure or leak.  Now we are uptpo say 10 to 15 years to be cost effective. 

      I've talked to a couple of installers and they just tell me it's not worth it/cost effective to do it.  (There are a few very rare excpetions.)  They also say I would need an insulated tank for night time and morning.  So why do all of the extra plumbing if you are going to have a tank?

      I also looked into electric tankless.  Crud the the think need 4, yes FOUR 20a 220v breakers.  As I recal it needs 120amps.  And here's the crazy thing, with an incomming water temperature of 40 degrees F, the output is 85 F.  The water isn't even hot.  So much for that.

      Wonder why it works so well for you?  Are your temps higher than ours?  In the winter outside air temp is maybe gets as low as 35F and as high as 100 in the summer.  Most of the year we are between 50 and 85. 








      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 25, 2019, 04:09:53 am
      It almost sounds like Australia uses lots of solar so I took a look at what Australia use to generate electricity:

      (https://www.energycouncil.com.au/media/6433/2016-11-17-fig-1-senate.jpg)

      ouch.

      If you look at total energy use it gets worse:
      Oil37.7%
      Coal31.5%
      Gas24.7%
      Renewables6.2%
      page 7: https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/australian_energy_update_2018.pdf (https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/australian_energy_update_2018.pdf)

      Something very strange is going on there, considering Australia are about as ideal for solar power as it gets.


      Makes sense Australia is using so much coal, 75%.  There was a coal field 30 miles from my house which use to provide coal to San Francisco.  A 50 mile trip by ship.  That was over 100 years ago.  It closed in 1903 becuase coal from Australia was cheaper and of better quality.  Hard to beleive it was far cheaper to ship the coal 12,000 km/7,500 miles than the 50 miles.....  but it was.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 25, 2019, 04:39:45 am
      Well, Germany also has a shitload of domestic coal, yet they have a substantial amount of solar despite being located far north and has no deserts.
      https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg2139046/#msg2139046 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/msg2139046/#msg2139046)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 25, 2019, 07:18:18 pm
      For those of you who think solar can power the world, here's what it would look like if we could convert all of the solar energy to electricity.

      Want to know the future of battery technology in cars?  Ask a Materials Chemist.  This prof gave a talk at Standford on the Innovation in Stationary Electricity Storage: The Liquid Metal Battery.  Out of all of the posts on this forum about batteries, hydro, solar, fly-wheels, molton salt storage, etc. this guy does an excellent job of presenting what's possible and what's not.

      Think Hydrogen fuelcell cars are the answer?  NOPE!  He explains why at (5:23) 

      https://youtu.be/pDxegcZqx_8
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 25, 2019, 09:32:32 pm
      How old is this video? Platinum is already widely used in mass produced cars parts: the catalytic converter. And ofcourse he didn't mention that other people know this too and have developed work arounds to create hydrogen fuel cells with no or a minimal amount of Platinum.
      https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-platinum-fuelcells/platinums-days-as-fuel-cell-car-component-may-be-numbered-idUKKBN1GZ2KO

      Again: be very carefull about taking bold statements at face value. This guy is trying to sell his invention and spreads FUD about the alternatives. IMHO a poor way of selling your invention because it takes a slightly intelligent person a minute to cut through the BS and wonder what else is this guy exaggerating? His results? If it is so great then why can't you buy these batteries yet?

      Just to highlight one of the non-logical reasonings in the video: Restricting possible solutions to abundant materials may seem logical at first but you have to figure out how much you need first. Gold is also widely used in the electronics industry. So for some reason your phone is possible because chips are made from widely availabe silicon but how about gold then? According to the guy in the video platinum is as 'rare' as gold. Following his logic the phone in his pocket shouldn't be possible. Not to mention all the other rare elements used in the parts used in his telephone. My BS detector just triggered on this big time.  :bullshit:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 25, 2019, 10:46:13 pm
      Those liquid metal batteries do sound crazy, but it seems like they have very interesting characteristics.

      The technology isn't new, it seems. They improved them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium%E2%80%93sulfur_battery

      I wonder if they can be expected to be used in cars. I suppose that molten metal batteries wouldn't like to be shaken, and just how much heat do the batteries radiate? I suppose that they need to be very well thermally isolated, or you would be losing energy like crazy. Also, i don't want to be anywhere near a molten sodium battery, if the case gets broken.

      For stationary storage, they look very good, however.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 25, 2019, 11:11:23 pm
      Those liquid metal batteries do sound crazy, but it seems like they have very interesting characteristics.

      The technology isn't new, it seems. They improved them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium%E2%80%93sulfur_battery (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium%E2%80%93sulfur_battery)

      I wonder if they can be expected to be used in cars. I suppose that molten metal batteries wouldn't like to be shaken, and just how much heat do the batteries radiate? I suppose that they need to be very well thermally isolated, or you would be losing energy like crazy. Also, i don't want to be anywhere near a molten sodium battery, if the case gets broken.

      For stationary storage, they look very good, however.
      Ambri is at least a year away from doing field testing: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/ambri-is-still-alive-and-chasing-its-liquid-metal-battery-dreams#gs.9mvoD7XQ (https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/ambri-is-still-alive-and-chasing-its-liquid-metal-battery-dreams#gs.9mvoD7XQ) The main advantage I see is the life expectancy. If they can get reliable performance for say 20000 cycles or more then the initial costs don't matter that much. It will win from any lithium based battery solution for stationary storage for having a lower TCO in the long term. Still the efficiency is quite low at 70%. Converting electricity to hydrogen may make more sense.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 25, 2019, 11:52:18 pm
      Those liquid metal batteries do sound crazy, but it seems like they have very interesting characteristics.

      The technology isn't new, it seems. They improved them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium%E2%80%93sulfur_battery

      I wonder if they can be expected to be used in cars. I suppose that molten metal batteries wouldn't like to be shaken, and just how much heat do the batteries radiate? I suppose that they need to be very well thermally isolated, or you would be losing energy like crazy. Also, i don't want to be anywhere near a molten sodium battery, if the case gets broken.

      For stationary storage, they look very good, however.

      At the end someone asked him about the heat, and he said something like the case is warm, but not HOT.  I think he mentioned it the heat generated in charging and discharging could be used to heat a home.


      He's not using sodium, that would be explosivly crazy.  He said the TSA will allow his batteries to be taken on a plane.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 26, 2019, 12:22:51 am
      He's not using sodium, that would be explosivly crazy.  He said the TSA will allow his batteries to be taken on a plane.
      If you would have listened more carefully: when the battery is fully cooled down and the metals inside solid. I don't know what this would mean for the state of charge.

      Come to think of it: the thermal management of these batteries will be a real nightmare. It seems the charge / discharge efficiency is around 70%. Say this is equally divided between charging & discharging. If you are storing 1MW of electricity in the battery you'll end up with 150kW of heat that will need to be taken away from the battery and dumped into the air. However when the battery is stationary this heat production stops and heat needs to be added to keep the battery at the operational temperature. Something tells me that this will require an intricate heating/cooling system. Just using thermal insulation for the cells won't be enough because this will greatly reduce that charge & discharge rates. All in all this technology is years away from being ready for actual deployment.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 26, 2019, 01:03:00 am
      He's not using sodium, that would be explosivly crazy.  He said the TSA will allow his batteries to be taken on a plane.
      If you would have listened more carefully: when the battery is fully cooled down and the metals inside solid. I don't know what this would mean for the state of charge.

      Come to think of it: the thermal management of these batteries will be a real nightmare. It seems the charge / discharge efficiency is around 70%. Say this is equally divided between charging & discharging. If you are storing 1MW of electricity in the battery you'll end up with 150kW of heat that will need to be taken away from the battery and dumped into the air. However when the battery is stationary this heat production stops and heat needs to be added to keep the battery at the operational temperature. Something tells me that this will require an intricate heating/cooling system. Just using thermal insulation for the cells won't be enough because this will greatly reduce that charge & discharge rates. All in all this technology is years away from being ready for actual deployment.

      He talked about the heat in the video.  As I recall he said it was warm, but not HOT!  Once cool it is a solid and there is no danger.  There was some joke about what if it get's shot and he said it will leak out and become a solid. 


      Someone a few posts back said this was bullshit.  And something about all our cars having platinum and our phones having gold.  Guess he missed the part at (5:01) where he show the abundance of atoms on our planet.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth's_crust#/media/File:Elemental_abundances.svg

      All the gold tha's ever been mined is a 62 foot or 18 m cube or two olympic size pools.  When it comes to platinum is about 5 times less or about the size of a living room.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 26, 2019, 01:21:42 am
      He's not using sodium, that would be explosivly crazy.  He said the TSA will allow his batteries to be taken on a plane.
      If you would have listened more carefully: when the battery is fully cooled down and the metals inside solid. I don't know what this would mean for the state of charge.

      Come to think of it: the thermal management of these batteries will be a real nightmare. It seems the charge / discharge efficiency is around 70%. Say this is equally divided between charging & discharging. If you are storing 1MW of electricity in the battery you'll end up with 150kW of heat that will need to be taken away from the battery and dumped into the air. However when the battery is stationary this heat production stops and heat needs to be added to keep the battery at the operational temperature. Something tells me that this will require an intricate heating/cooling system. Just using thermal insulation for the cells won't be enough because this will greatly reduce that charge & discharge rates. All in all this technology is years away from being ready for actual deployment.
      He talked about the heat in the video.  As I recall he said it was warm, but not HOT!  Once cool it is a solid and there is no danger.  There was some joke about what if it get's shot and he said it will leak out and become a solid. 
      Why do I even bother. You are not reading anything I write -again-  :palm:

      Quote
      Someone a few posts back said this was bullshit.  And something about all our cars having platinum and our phones having gold.  Guess he missed the part at (5:01) where he show the abundance of atoms on our planet.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth's_crust#/media/File:Elemental_abundances.svg

      All the gold tha's ever been mined is a 62 foot or 18 m cube or two olympic size pools.  When it comes to platinum is about 5 times less or about the size of a living room.
      And still that doesn't prevent platinum to be used for something else then jewelry so the statement of the 'professor' is completely false. I'd call it a lie. And you are not even reading the graph you linked to. It shows platinum and gold are about as equally abundant. If less platinum was mined until now it means there is more left to mine.

      Just understand this: the guy in the video is trying to sell his idea and he isn't afraid of telling lies.

      Read the article I linked to about how his company is about to go under.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 26, 2019, 01:42:09 am
      He's not using sodium, that would be explosivly crazy.  He said the TSA will allow his batteries to be taken on a plane.
      If you would have listened more carefully: when the battery is fully cooled down and the metals inside solid. I don't know what this would mean for the state of charge.

      Come to think of it: the thermal management of these batteries will be a real nightmare. It seems the charge / discharge efficiency is around 70%. Say this is equally divided between charging & discharging. If you are storing 1MW of electricity in the battery you'll end up with 150kW of heat that will need to be taken away from the battery and dumped into the air. However when the battery is stationary this heat production stops and heat needs to be added to keep the battery at the operational temperature. Something tells me that this will require an intricate heating/cooling system. Just using thermal insulation for the cells won't be enough because this will greatly reduce that charge & discharge rates. All in all this technology is years away from being ready for actual deployment.
      He talked about the heat in the video.  As I recall he said it was warm, but not HOT!  Once cool it is a solid and there is no danger.  There was some joke about what if it get's shot and he said it will leak out and become a solid. 
      Why do I even bother. You are not reading anything I write -again-  :palm:

      Quote
      Someone a few posts back said this was bullshit.  And something about all our cars having platinum and our phones having gold.  Guess he missed the part at (5:01) where he show the abundance of atoms on our planet.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth's_crust#/media/File:Elemental_abundances.svg

      All the gold that's ever been mined is a 62 foot or 18 m cube or two Olympic size pools.  When it comes to platinum is about 5 times less or about the size of a living room.
      And still that doesn't prevent platinum to be used for something else then jewelry so the statement of the 'professor' is completely false. I'd call it a lie. And you are not even reading the graph you linked to. It shows platinum and gold are about as equally abundant. If less platinum was mined until now it means there is more left to mine.

      Just understand this: the guy in the video is trying to sell his idea and he isn't afraid of telling lies.

      Read the article I linked to about how his company is about to go under.



      You are right I do not understand you.  Why would converting electricity to hydrogen may make more sense? 
      Don't we get too much hydrogen from curde oil?

      Yes the guy is trying to sell us on the technology, but isn't MIT the one that's going to profit?  He's tenure faculty.

      If you know anything about chemistry and half-cells you have to admit this is a very clever.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 26, 2019, 10:31:37 am
      You are right I do not understand you.  Why would converting electricity to hydrogen may make more sense? 
      Costs and time needed to implement. A hydrogen tank is something you can order off-the-shelve. The molten salt batteries are years away from being deployable.  I see several potential issues that need to be solved AFTER they have a working cell. Read my text about the thermal management.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 26, 2019, 04:43:05 pm
      Sodium-sulfur batteries do exist, and are currently used. Did anyone read the wiki article i linked?
      NGK even sells this things: https://www.ngk.co.jp/nas/specs/ (https://www.ngk.co.jp/nas/specs/) Those are probably the ones with the "brittle ceramic separator" mentioned in the video.

      As i understand, the battery insides would be solid when discharged and molten when charged. I suppose that they have a hell of a thermal insulation, or the charge wouldn't last.

      Ambri seems to have removed the ceramic separator in favor for another layer of molten material which keeps the anode and cathodes apart.

      I suppose that if the case breaches, it's fireworks time with the molten sodium. In fact, you can read about a fire incident with NGK batteries here: https://www.ngk-insulators.com/en/news/20120425_9322.html (https://www.ngk-insulators.com/en/news/20120425_9322.html)

      So, while i'm no expert in this, the claims that nothing will happen if the case is shot at, do sound like bullshit. Take a look at the hazards of sodium-sulfur batteries here, page 3: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/old/4678.pdf (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/old/4678.pdf)

      That's unless i got the video wrong, and they're actually using something else. I think he said that they mixed the sodium with another metal, or something like that? Maybe that makes it less explosive, or something.

      70% efficiency is quite reasonable (but not the best in battery technologies). Hydrogen cell fuels have typically lower efficiency than that, unless you use the waste heat for something useful, which won't be the case in a car. And the hydrogen needs to be produced by electrolysis, if you want it clean, and right now the efficiency of around 70 to 80%, i think. Then you need to compress the hydrogen, which again requires energy, Here seems to be a good explanation: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/)

      (https://c1cleantechnicacom-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/files/2018/07/fcv-vs-battery-efficiency-hydrogen-570x287.png)

      Hydrogen does have a big advantage, and it's that is fast to charge, and with excellent range.

      And this video is great also, down from the same webpage:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY)

      Something interesting to note, however, is that it should be quite easy to make a pluggable hydrogen / battery hybrid vehicle. If you have enough battery range for normal everyday use, and you just have to use hydrogen occasionally for long trips, or emergencies, then that looks quite interesting to me. But would that kind of use be enough for the hydrogen stations to make a profit?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 26, 2019, 08:25:40 pm
      You are right I do not understand you.  Why would converting electricity to hydrogen may make more sense? 
      Costs and time needed to implement. A hydrogen tank is something you can order off-the-shelve. The  batteries are years away from being deployable.  I see several potential issues that need to be solved AFTER they have a working cell. Read my text about the thermal management.

      I continue not to understand you.  Yes one can buy a hydrogen tank, but what are you going to put in it?

      What do you mean molten salt batteries are years away, your information is abut 80 years out of date.  They were originally developed for V-1 and V-2 rockets Germany was sending over to the England and in nuclear weapons.

      I read your text about thermal management.  Did you listen and understand what the professor said about the thermal characteristics of his design?

      We don't know if what the professor is proposing is going to be a commercial success or not.  But you do have to admit it looks feasible and promising.  This guy is an MIT professor so can we agree he's not stupid?  Bill Gates is no dummy either.  Gates like this guy are trying to solve some of the worlds issues before they are no longer with us.

      Instead of bashing the professor saying he's trying to "sell" us on the technology why don't you discuss the issues with the physics and chemistry of what he's proposing.  As Carl Segan said, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."  The professor is making extraordinary claims, and he's sure as shit backing them up with extraordinary evidence.

      Why not complement the guy for brilliant way he's looking at the problem and trying to solve it.  You do have to admit it is brilliant. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on January 26, 2019, 09:17:22 pm
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eFM9JJMH_0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eFM9JJMH_0)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 26, 2019, 09:21:47 pm
      You are right I do not understand you.  Why would converting electricity to hydrogen may make more sense? 
      Costs and time needed to implement. A hydrogen tank is something you can order off-the-shelve. The  batteries are years away from being deployable.  I see several potential issues that need to be solved AFTER they have a working cell. Read my text about the thermal management.

      I continue not to understand you.  Yes one can buy a hydrogen tank, but what are you going to put in it?
      Hydrogen ofcourse. Made from (excess) electricity.
      Quote
      What do you mean molten salt batteries are years away, your information is abut 80 years out of date.  They were originally developed for V-1 and V-2 rockets Germany was sending over to the England and in nuclear weapons.

      I read your text about thermal management.  Did you listen and understand what the professor said about the thermal characteristics of his design?

      We don't know if what the professor is proposing is going to be a commercial success or not.  But you do have to admit it looks feasible and promising.  This guy is an MIT professor so can we agree he's not stupid?  Bill Gates is no dummy either.  Gates like this guy are trying to solve some of the worlds issues before they are no longer with us.
      For starters Gates didn't see internet coming until it was too late. Don't confuse people which had one bright idea (in case of Bill Gates: buy software, mash it together and turn it into a profitable product while cornering the market) with people who really changed the world. People like Maxwell, Einstein, etc.

      With that cleared out of the way... selling an idea which is good in itself doesn't require bashing other technologies. A good idea sells itself. If bashing of other ideas is required then that is a huge red herring.

      What is unclear is what the costs are of the solution. I wrote it before and I'll write it again: efficiency doesn't matter so much. It all comes down to TCO for the end user. Calculating the TCO is not only about the initial costs but also the time between needing a replacement.

      According to a quick Google a NAS battery seems to have a cycle life of around 5000 (charged / discharged to 70%). Costs seem to be at $400 per kWh. That means that storing 1kWh costs $400/5000cycles=8 cents per kWh (=TCO). That is a pretty high cost per kWh. Electricity from wind turbines for example costs 2 cents per kWh.

      Converting it into hydrogen with a 60% loss through the entire chain is cheaper. A hydrogen tank easely lasts decades and because if the extremely high energy density of hydrogen a small tank can contain a lot of energy. Say you have a 5 litre tank which costs $1000 and it gets filled / emptied every day. In 30 years you'll have 10950 cycles. A 5 liter tank holds the equivalent of 100kWh of electricity (when used in an EV for example). 10950 cycles * 100kWh= 1095000 kWh. The cost per kWh= $1000/1095000 = almost 0. Heck you can make the hydrogen tank many times more expensive and it still amounts to less than a cent per kWh.

      In a hydrogen chain you'll need to input 5 cents worth of electricity and spend near to zero on storage in to get 1kWh out. In a NAS battery chain you'll need to put 2.8 cents worth of electricity + 8 cents of costs = 10.8 cents per kWh. I hope this -back of the envelope calculation- demonstrates (again) how uneconomic battery storage is.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 26, 2019, 09:31:21 pm
      For hydrogen storage you need a lot more than just the tank, you need to generate hydrogen somehow, you need to compress it and cool it (might be possible to use this heat), you then need to convert it back to electricity when you need it. When you calculate TCO you need to take into consideration the cost and lifetime of all those components as well. The tank is going to be the cheapest part.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 26, 2019, 09:34:57 pm
      For hydrogen storage you need a lot more than just the tank, you need to generate hydrogen somehow, you need to compress it and cool it (might be possible to use this heat), you then need to convert it back to electricity when you need it. When you calculate TCO you need to take into consideration the cost and lifetime of all those components as well. The tank is going to be the cheapest part.
      A battery will also need auxilary equipment (heating/cooling, conversion, etc).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 26, 2019, 10:07:53 pm
      Yes, inverters and maybe some heaters/fans*, but that isn't difficult or particularly expensive compared to the complex mechanical systems you'd need for hydrogen. It's really unfair to only make a comparison between batteries and a hydrogen tank. The expensive parts will be converting electricity into hydrogen and vice versa and the compressors, not the tank.

      *Looking at a picture of a NGK NAS battery installation from before it looks like thermal regulation is integrated in the battery assemblies.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 26, 2019, 10:29:38 pm
      Yes, inverters and maybe some heaters/fans*, but that isn't difficult or particularly expensive compared to the complex mechanical systems you'd need for hydrogen. It's really unfair to only make a comparison between batteries and a hydrogen tank. The expensive parts will be converting electricity into hydrogen and vice versa and the compressors, not the tank.

      *Looking at a picture of a NGK NAS battery installation from before it looks like thermal regulation is integrated in the battery assemblies.
      Still the costs of the materials for the batteries alone will be huge. Look at the weight of the NAS batteries from the NGK website. I see numbers like 32 tonnes, 82 tonnes.. The materials may be cheap but if you need a lot of it, it still becomes expensive. Not just the materials but also the processing to turn them into batteries. Batteries just don't scale.

      But for kicks say we put the price for the entire electric to liquid hydrogen gas system with a 5kg tank at $10000 (mass produced) for a 15 year life span. The storage cost per kWh is 2 cents. Still 4 times cheaper than the battery solution.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 26, 2019, 11:49:05 pm
      Yes, inverters and maybe some heaters/fans*, but that isn't difficult or particularly expensive compared to the complex mechanical systems you'd need for hydrogen. It's really unfair to only make a comparison between batteries and a hydrogen tank. The expensive parts will be converting electricity into hydrogen and vice versa and the compressors, not the tank.

      *Looking at a picture of a NGK NAS battery installation from before it looks like thermal regulation is integrated in the battery assemblies.
      Still the costs of the materials for the batteries alone will be huge. Look at the weight of the NAS batteries from the NGK website. I see numbers like 32 tonnes, 82 tonnes.. The materials may be cheap but if you need a lot of it, it still becomes expensive. Not just the materials but also the processing to turn them into batteries. Batteries just don't scale.

      But for kicks say we put the price for the entire electric to liquid hydrogen gas system with a 5kg tank at $10000 (mass produced) for a 15 year life span. The storage cost per kWh is 2 cents. Still 4 times cheaper than the battery solution.

      You are correct but when you factor in the inefficiency of hydrogen its far more than the four times you are saving.  No consumer would ever go for it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 26, 2019, 11:50:21 pm
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eFM9JJMH_0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3eFM9JJMH_0)

      Thanks for posting.  Imagine if that were a gas powered car?  Like a Pinto or a Ford Exploder?  The driver and passengers would have been killed and burned alive.

      Just goes to show how much safer an EV/Tesla is over gas powered cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 26, 2019, 11:55:45 pm
      Yes, inverters and maybe some heaters/fans*, but that isn't difficult or particularly expensive compared to the complex mechanical systems you'd need for hydrogen. It's really unfair to only make a comparison between batteries and a hydrogen tank. The expensive parts will be converting electricity into hydrogen and vice versa and the compressors, not the tank.

      *Looking at a picture of a NGK NAS battery installation from before it looks like thermal regulation is integrated in the battery assemblies.
      Still the costs of the materials for the batteries alone will be huge. Look at the weight of the NAS batteries from the NGK website. I see numbers like 32 tonnes, 82 tonnes.. The materials may be cheap but if you need a lot of it, it still becomes expensive. Not just the materials but also the processing to turn them into batteries. Batteries just don't scale.

      But for kicks say we put the price for the entire electric to liquid hydrogen gas system with a 5kg tank at $10000 (mass produced) for a 15 year life span. The storage cost per kWh is 2 cents. Still 4 times cheaper than the battery solution.

      You are correct but when you factor in the inefficiency of hydrogen its far more than the four times you are saving.  No consumer would ever go for it.
      I have already factored in the efficiency of hydrogen in my calculations. What kills batteries (in an economic sense) is the massive amount of materials needed and their short lifespan.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 27, 2019, 12:26:33 am
      Care to tell us why your calculations do not agree with the ones in the video?

      https://youtu.be/f7MzFfuNOtY

      Yes, inverters and maybe some heaters/fans*, but that isn't difficult or particularly expensive compared to the complex mechanical systems you'd need for hydrogen. It's really unfair to only make a comparison between batteries and a hydrogen tank. The expensive parts will be converting electricity into hydrogen and vice versa and the compressors, not the tank.

      *Looking at a picture of a NGK NAS battery installation from before it looks like thermal regulation is integrated in the battery assemblies.
      Still the costs of the materials for the batteries alone will be huge. Look at the weight of the NAS batteries from the NGK website. I see numbers like 32 tonnes, 82 tonnes.. The materials may be cheap but if you need a lot of it, it still becomes expensive. Not just the materials but also the processing to turn them into batteries. Batteries just don't scale.

      But for kicks say we put the price for the entire electric to liquid hydrogen gas system with a 5kg tank at $10000 (mass produced) for a 15 year life span. The storage cost per kWh is 2 cents. Still 4 times cheaper than the battery solution.

      You are correct but when you factor in the inefficiency of hydrogen its far more than the four times you are saving.  No consumer would ever go for it.
      I have already factored in the efficiency of hydrogen in my calculations. What kills batteries (in an economic sense) is the massive amount of materials needed and their short lifespan.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 27, 2019, 12:35:26 am
      Care to tell us why your calculations do not agree with the ones in the video?
      The video is completely wrong because it only looks at efficiency and not at TCO. My calculations determine the total cost of the solution which in the end determines whether a solution is good or not. Efficiency is just a small part of the calculation. Again: what kills battery storage is the cost of making the batteries (even with cheap materials) and their relative short live span.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 27, 2019, 12:58:55 am
      I'm sorry if I missed something, and I'm not saying you are wrong, but your calculations seems to have been numbers pulled out of thin air:
      But for kicks say we put the price for the entire electric to liquid hydrogen gas system with a 5kg tank at $10000 (mass produced) for a 15 year life span. The storage cost per kWh is 2 cents. Still 4 times cheaper than the battery solution.
      It would be more interesting if we could se something fact based imho.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 27, 2019, 01:19:31 am
      Feel free to find a source with some actual numbers on a hydrogen based system. So far my calculations have shown that a hydrogen storage system has to be extremely expensive per stored kWh (which is not capacity!) to be less economical compared to batteries. All in all it is far more likely hydrogen turns out to be cheaper. How much cheaper is just a matter of finding  out what an installation to convert hydrogen into electricity and storage would cost.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 27, 2019, 01:31:52 am
      Up until 100 years ago, electric cars were more popular than internal-combustion engine powered cars and were poised to become the standard method of transportation.  Most used NiFe or NiCd batteries.
      And how did they control the power output smooth enough without losing too much power in the switch while driving (therefore potentially heating it up and burning, next to the loss of energy)? Not to mention charging those batteries.

      The switches needed for that got available with the semiconductors used and available as they are today, the whole system relying on an electrical grid that simply did not exist back then. Those are very technical reasons. The first gas suppliers were indeed pharmacies, as they sold the benzine in bottles and had the necessary logistics infrastructure. That gave the whole idea of a gasoline car the necessary initial push - in Germany back in the days. Where is that chummy-chum?

      I mean, there have been quite counter-intuitive decisions, like removing trolley busses (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus) from cities and now selling them as solution again or lamenting about the pollution caused by exhaust gasses inside cities. Yet personal transport and public transport is a different thing.
      old DC motors had field coils not PM magnets.  They controlled the current in the field coils which was much less then the main armature current. 

      http://www.electronics-tutorial.net/electronic-systems/separately-excited-dc-motor/index.html (http://www.electronics-tutorial.net/electronic-systems/separately-excited-dc-motor/index.html)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 27, 2019, 03:17:27 pm
      According to the video i posted, the electricity cost per km for a tesla model 3 is 2 to 2.4 cents, while they hydrogen cost per km for the toyota mirai is 17.7 cents. The tesla model 3 long-range comes with a battery warranty of 8 years or 120000 miles (193000 km), so, for that many miles, the electricity cost is $4632 (at 2.4 cents/km), while the hydrogen cost would be $34161. A difference of $29529.

      And according with the first two results i found, the mirai costs more than the tesla:

      https://www.toyotasantamonica.com/toyota-mirai/ (https://www.toyotasantamonica.com/toyota-mirai/)

      https://www.tesla.com/model3 (https://www.tesla.com/model3)

      So, about cost, that doesn't looks good for the mirai. But the mirai has the convenience of a fast fillup. If there where enough stations for the trip, of course.

      By the way, i didn't noticed before that the model 3 long-range has 500 km range. That's not bad at all.

      Still all of them very expensive, however. I hope that the price eventually gets lower as the number of cars sold rises.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 27, 2019, 03:29:10 pm
      According to the video i posted, the electricity cost per km for a tesla model 3 is 2 to 2.4 cents, while they hydrogen cost per km for the toyota mirai is 17.7 cents. The tesla model 3 long-range comes with a battery warranty of 8 years or 120000 miles (193000 km), so, for that many miles, the electricity cost is $4632 (at 2.4 cents/km), while the hydrogen cost would be $34161. A difference of $29529.

      So, about cost, that doesn't looks good for the mirai. But the mirai has the convenience of a fast fillup. If there where enough stations for the trip, of course.
      You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure. Sure the Mirai is more expensive right now. It isn't a production car like the Tesla. The same goes for hydrogen. The development of hydrogen is behind compared to pure EVs so right now everything is more expensive. Currently it is very hard to make an accurate estimation on what will be cheaper in a few years taking all costs into account. I've read an old report from 2014 which claims that the infrastructure for hydrogen will be 4 times cheaper than the infrastructure needed to charge EVs. But it is hard to tell how valid that number is in today's situation.

      Also the electricity costs for the Tesla depend largely on where you are using it. In Europe the cost per km for the Tesla would be around to 7 dollar cents per km when charging at home. If you use a generic super charger along the road you might pay over 16 dollar cents per km. The recent raise of the price for charging at Tesla's super chargers shows that the EV charging infrastructure isn't going to be free and will need to be paid by the consumers. Prices at public EV charging points will rise further and if you make a long trip or have no charging point at home you can't avoid paying more.

      I'm quite sure the cost of the charging infrastructure is what will kill the EV in Europe in a few years. It will be too expensive compared to the alternatives like hydrogen and bio-fuels. In the Netherlands we have the highest fuel costs in the world. Currently the fuel of my car costs me 11 eurocents per km. If I buy a more efficient car I can drop that to 8 eurocents per km.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 27, 2019, 05:12:59 pm
      You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure.
      Are you factoring in the cost of the wear of hydrogen fuel cells and the large scale hydrogen production and charging infrastructure?
      It's not like hydrogen is free from problems (https://ssj3gohan.tweakblogs.net/blog/11470/why-fuel-cell-cars-dont-work-part-1).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 27, 2019, 05:23:48 pm
      You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure.
      Are you factoring in the cost of the wear of hydrogen fuel cells and the large scale hydrogen production and charging infrastructure?
      It's not like hydrogen is free from problems (https://ssj3gohan.tweakblogs.net/blog/11470/why-fuel-cell-cars-dont-work-part-1).
      That is a rather old article from 2015. Things are changing fast and many of the issues listed in the article are no longer true. Given the current rapid expansion of hydrogen infrastructure it seems many of the obstacles have been overcome. Sure the fuel cells don't have an infinite life span and the hydrogen tanks will need inspections at certain intervals (for the Mirai once every 15 years).

      I have been trying to find numbers on the cost for a hydrogen installation but I'm afraid it is to soon to say. Whatever is out there now isn't really mass produced so prices are very high.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 27, 2019, 05:27:17 pm
      You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure.
      Are you factoring in the cost of the wear of hydrogen fuel cells and the large scale hydrogen production and charging infrastructure?
      It's not like hydrogen is free from problems (https://ssj3gohan.tweakblogs.net/blog/11470/why-fuel-cell-cars-dont-work-part-1).
      How much maintenance does a fuel cell vehicle require? I see various things vaguely claiming its now, but I remember fuel cells from the past having serious wear and tear issues.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 27, 2019, 05:40:51 pm
      You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure.
      Are you factoring in the cost of the wear of hydrogen fuel cells and the large scale hydrogen production and charging infrastructure?
      It's not like hydrogen is free from problems (https://ssj3gohan.tweakblogs.net/blog/11470/why-fuel-cell-cars-dont-work-part-1).
      How much maintenance does a fuel cell vehicle require? I see various things vaguely claiming its now, but I remember fuel cells from the past having serious wear and tear issues.
      The Toyota Mirai has an 8 year or 160k km warranty on the fuel cell.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 27, 2019, 06:12:04 pm
      You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure.
      Are you factoring in the cost of the wear of hydrogen fuel cells and the large scale hydrogen production and charging infrastructure?
      It's not like hydrogen is free from problems (https://ssj3gohan.tweakblogs.net/blog/11470/why-fuel-cell-cars-dont-work-part-1).
      How much maintenance does a fuel cell vehicle require? I see various things vaguely claiming its now, but I remember fuel cells from the past having serious wear and tear issues.
      The Toyota Mirai has an 8 year or 160k km warranty on the fuel cell.
      That tells me nothing about the maintenance requirements.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 27, 2019, 06:34:48 pm
      I don't have any experience with fuel cell vehicles so don't know much.
      This report suggest that the latest generation fuel cell cars have an average lifetime of 2442 operating hours (about 118000 km or 73000 mi), so about half of the life expectancy of a gasoline car.
      https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review17/tv001_kurtz_2017_o.pdf (https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review17/tv001_kurtz_2017_o.pdf)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 27, 2019, 06:40:32 pm
      The Toyota Mirai has an 8 year or 160k km warranty on the fuel cell.
      That tells me nothing about the maintenance requirements.
      The 8 year warranty implies it should be maintenance free. And if it is not during that period then Toyota pays the bill. But knowing Toyota's quality level the fuel cell will last for much longer. When they introduced the Prius everyone said the batteries would fail within 3 years. Nothing could be further from the truth. It doesn't make sense to release a crappy car for a brand like Toyota. Besides that the Mirai isn't a new car. It was introduced in December 2014 in Japan.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 27, 2019, 06:50:11 pm
      The Toyota Mirai has an 8 year or 160k km warranty on the fuel cell.
      That tells me nothing about the maintenance requirements.
      The 8 year warranty implies it should be maintenance free. And if it is not during that period then Toyota pays the bill. But knowing Toyota's quality level the fuel cell will last for much longer. When they introduced the Prius everyone said the batteries would fail within 3 years. Nothing could be further from the truth. It doesn't make sense to release a crappy car for a brand like Toyota.
      Since when has any warranty on a car implied no maintenance? Most warranty claims are only accepted if the car can be shown to have been maintained according to the maker's schedule.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 27, 2019, 06:55:19 pm
      (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b9/Toyota_Mirai_fuel_cell_stack_and_hydrogen_tank_SAO_2016_9028.jpg/640px-Toyota_Mirai_fuel_cell_stack_and_hydrogen_tank_SAO_2016_9028.jpg)

      Nice to know that the Toyota Mirai doesn't have the high pressure hydrogen tank (orange) directly under the driver seats.

      Apparently the 2016 Mirai cars comes with a warning not to refuel after 2029:
      https://insideevs.com/2016-toyota-mirai-refuel-2029/
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 27, 2019, 07:43:42 pm
      Since when has any warranty on a car implied no maintenance? Most warranty claims are only accepted if the car can be shown to have been maintained according to the maker's schedule.
      You could have found the maintenance manual yourself:
      https://www.toyota.com/t3Portal/document/omms-s/T-MMS-17Mirai/pdf/T-MMS-17Mirai.pdf (https://www.toyota.com/t3Portal/document/omms-s/T-MMS-17Mirai/pdf/T-MMS-17Mirai.pdf)
      Nothing out of the ordinary except that the fuel tank needs to be swapped every 15 years or 180 months (whichever comes first). It is common that gas tanks need periodic re-testing so I'd assume the tank will be swapped with a refurbished one if yours still passes testing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 27, 2019, 08:12:18 pm
      If the fuel cell system is expected to last for a little more than 8 years/160 km then the 15 year life of the gas tank shouldn't matter.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 27, 2019, 08:46:07 pm
      If the fuel cell system is expected to last for a little more than 8 years/160 km then the 15 year life of the gas tank shouldn't matter.
      Having a warranty of 8 years is not the same as having a predicted life of 8 years. Warranties are normally much shorter than the expected lifetime.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 27, 2019, 08:48:41 pm
      If the fuel cell system is expected to last for a little more than 8 years/160 km then the 15 year life of the gas tank shouldn't matter.
      The warranty is 8 years / 160k km. So it is guaranteed to last at least that long. Given Toyota's proven track record when it comes to reliability (and dealing with manufacturing defects after the warranty period) I'd be way more worried about swapping the tank.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 27, 2019, 09:01:33 pm
      Sure, but given this:
      Quote
      This report suggest that the latest generation fuel cell cars have an average lifetime of 2442 operating hours (about 118000 km or 73000 mi), so about half of the life expectancy of a gasoline car.
      https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review17/tv001_kurtz_2017_o.pdf (https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review17/tv001_kurtz_2017_o.pdf)
      How much better will their system be? If you drive about 15000 km per year you will have driven 120000 km after 8 years, so apparently they seem confident they can do better, or they have factored in the cost of replacing the fuel cells into the price of the car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 28, 2019, 12:53:16 am
      Something else which was not mentioned about hydrogen powered cars is the time to fill them.  If you read in the comments an owner of a Mirai says it takes him 20 minutes to fuel his car.  Isn't that about the same amount of time for a Super Charger to get a Tesla to 80% charge?

      And no mention that hydrogen fuel is NOT coming from electrolysis, (too expensive).  No it comes from fossil fuel.

      So in the end, hydrogen cars are really fossil fuel powered.  What's the advantage?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 28, 2019, 01:08:55 am
      Currently most EVs are powered from fossil fuel as well so that doesn't make any difference. It should be possible to fuel the Mirai in a couple of minutes though but this seems to depend on the kind of hydrogen fueling station. Definitely something to take into account when considering a hydrogen car. Toyota says that refueling the Mirai takes 5 minutes but this depends on the kind of fueling station and ambient temperature if you read the fine print: https://www.longotoyota.com/mirai.htm (https://www.longotoyota.com/mirai.htm) .
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 28, 2019, 01:21:52 am
      Currently most EVs are powered from fossil fuel as well so that doesn't make any difference. It should be possible to fuel the Mirai in a couple of minutes though but this seems to depend on the kind of hydrogen fueling station. Definitely something to take into account when considering a hydrogen car. Toyota says that refueling the Mirai takes 5 minutes but this depends on the kind of fueling station and ambient temperature if you read the fine print: https://www.longotoyota.com/mirai.htm (https://www.longotoyota.com/mirai.htm) .

      Now, we all know that's NOT exactly true.  You have even posted graphs showing what you are saying is NOT true.  EV cars can get their power from fossil fuel, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, wave and biomass.  Hydrogen cars today only get their fuel for fossil fuel.  Yes they could get it from electrolysis, but as has been discussed it is much more expensive.  So I think it's accurate to say hydrogen powered cars are reality fossil fuel powered cars.

      Is there a reason you can't be a bit more honest?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 28, 2019, 01:29:55 am
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 28, 2019, 01:39:04 am
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

      I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

      You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.   
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 28, 2019, 09:50:04 am
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

      I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

      You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.
      (https://h2stationmaps.com/sites/default/files/AC-Transit-Emeryville-hyrogen-station.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 28, 2019, 10:14:33 am
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.
      If you use electricity to generate hydrogen it's always going to be much less efficient than a BEV by orders of magnitude. So if you use the same electricity to charge batteries and generate hydrogen BEVs are going to be a much cleaner option.

      If you use fossil fuels (like LNG) to produce the hydrogen you might as well use gasoline directly. It's always going to be more efficient to burn the fuel directly in an ice than first converting fossil fuels to hydrogen and then use the hydrogen as fuel in a car.

      For hydrogen to be clean it has to be produced by only using something non-polluting, like wind, solar or nuclear energy. There are some work in China on pebble bed reactors for hydrogen production but I don't know how far they have come. You could also potentially use solar and wind when there is excess production capacity. So it has potential to be cleaner than fossil fuels but currently isn't.

      To tell if a battery EV or hydrogen hybrid EV are better we would need a proper well to wheels life time analysis. I suspect the added complexity and extra conversion steps to produce hydrogen is always going mean it will be less efficient than simply charging batteries directly though.

      (That picture doesn't tell us anything about how the hydrogen is produced, only that someone have put some solar panels on a roof that couldn't produce anywhere near enough energy to fule those busses.)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 28, 2019, 10:43:16 am
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.
      If you use electricity to generate hydrogen it's always going to be much less efficient than a BEV by orders of magnitude. So if you use the same electricity to charge batteries and generate hydrogen BEVs are going to be a much cleaner option.
      Efficiency is just a small part of the equation so don't get too focussed on that alone because you'll lose sight on the big picture. In the end it is all about cost and convenience.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 28, 2019, 10:45:57 am
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.
      If you use electricity to generate hydrogen it's always going to be much less efficient than a BEV by orders of magnitude. So if you use the same electricity to charge batteries and generate hydrogen BEVs are going to be a much cleaner option.
      Efficiency is just a small part of the equation so don't get too focussed on that alone because you'll lose sight on the big picture. In the end it is all about cost and convenience.
      If the goal is to reduce GHG emissions and other pollution then the car that uses less electricity (assuming it is generated in the same way) is going to the best option.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on January 28, 2019, 11:04:40 am
      It seems that large amounts exist as biproduct or waste of other processes,
      I am no expert in this field, but it seems it value is too low for capture.
      https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f12/waste_cox.pdf (https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f12/waste_cox.pdf)
      At work I have also overheard at work that hydrogen mixed with volatile organic generated
      during crude oil extraction is simply burnt off.

      Seems a bit like when gasoline was dumped as worthless.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 28, 2019, 11:17:42 am
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.
      If you use electricity to generate hydrogen it's always going to be much less efficient than a BEV by orders of magnitude. So if you use the same electricity to charge batteries and generate hydrogen BEVs are going to be a much cleaner option.
      Efficiency is just a small part of the equation so don't get too focussed on that alone because you'll lose sight on the big picture. In the end it is all about cost and convenience.
      If the goal is to reduce GHG emissions and other pollution then the car that uses less electricity (assuming it is generated in the same way) is going to the best option.
      Not if the costs are too high. It is clear that hydrogen will need a much less fine grained 'energy distribition infrastructure' compared to EVs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 28, 2019, 12:08:38 pm
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

      I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

      You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.
      (https://h2stationmaps.com/sites/default/files/AC-Transit-Emeryville-hyrogen-station.jpg)

      Dude that’s a hydrogen fueling satiation with solar panels on the roof.  An6 dope can see that.  The solar panels produce electricity which is sent to the grid and cars and buses can get hydrogen for hydrogen powered vehicles. 

      Help us out here...... where does it say in the picture, on the web site or in the blog where the hydrogen comes from?  IT DOESN’T.  You have NOT proved anything.  You do realize that less than 10 miles away is a Cheveron refinery where they have lots of hydrogen gas from the refining of crude oil.

      You know if you would do you homework a much better you would find the company that built and operates that Hydrogen fueling station states the hydrogen fuel comes from fossil fuels.

      Yes my friend the web site clearly states the hydrogen used to fuel hydrogen vehicles is coming from FOSSIL FUELS and specifically NATURAL GAS.

      “Today, hydrogen is mainly produced by steam reforming fossil fuels such as natural gas. Excess hydrogen is also recovered as a by-product from various industrial processes. Even though hydrogen generated from fossil feedstocks has the advantage of zero-tailpipe emissions, the production chain still leaves a carbon footprint. Well-to-wheel emissions of a hydrogen fuel-cell car are nonetheless approximately 30% lower than those of a conventional diesel-powered car.

      Building on these conventional hydrogen production techniques and Linde’s experience of more than 100 years of H2 production, we are actively developing technologies to ultimately increase the share of renewably produced hydrogen.”

      JEEZE MAN DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE POSTING SO YOU CAN BE TRUSTED.  You are like that dude posting a bunch of marketing hype BS on biofuels.

       Now to be fair to you, there is only one experimental hydrogen electrolysis refueling station and that is is in Germany.  But you didn’t mention that one, so I will for you.  But it is experimental so don’t expect to get your hydrogen powered car filled there. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 28, 2019, 12:13:20 pm
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

      I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

      You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.
      There are only a couple of functioning hydrogen filling points in the UK, but those do claim to produce the hydrogen on site by electrolysis. They seem to produce it ahead of time, and have it stored ready when a car draws up. They couldn't cope with rapid flow of cars - not that they would need to in the near future. The mainland filling points I have found information on all appear to produce the hydrogen off site, and store it at the filling station. So, they could be producing it by any means.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 28, 2019, 12:22:03 pm
      JEEZE MAN DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE POSTING SO YOU CAN BE TRUSTED.  You are like that dude posting a bunch of marketing hype BS on biofuels.
      No, do your own homework!  And I'm the one who is very optimistic about bio-fuels as well so have your memory checked or make notes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on January 28, 2019, 12:35:57 pm
      Yes my friend the web site clearly states the hydrogen used to fuel hydrogen vehicles is coming from FOSSIL FUELS and specifically NATURAL GAS.
      Actually, h2stationmaps.com does talk about solar panels and electrolysers being used to supplement the delivered hydrogen from fossil fuels. However, it seems to just be window dressing - they have an obstacle right in front of their solar panels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 28, 2019, 12:42:17 pm
      JEEZE MAN DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE POSTING SO YOU CAN BE TRUSTED.  You are like that dude posting a bunch of marketing hype BS on biofuels.
      No, do your own homework!  And I'm the one who is very optimistic about bio-fuels as well so have your memory checked or make notes.

      I was trying to be nice and polite.  But since you brought it up one has to ask, why do you make posts which turn out to be misleading, false and are just plane old bullshit?  Not trying to be mean here but didn’t you learn critical thinking skills in school?  I sure as shit did and while I am not perfect it sure helps in detecting when things just don’t sound right as in all of those posts about fuel from biogasses.  Or in this case why a gas company would produce hydrogen from electrolysis which is vey expensive when from over 100 years they been buying it from the refineries.  Didn’t you watch thre video on the “Truth About Hydrogen Cars”?  Watch the video and lean something.  You might want to re-read that marketing hype on biogases before making another post.  As we discovered the company you said was making biofuels really only made a more efficient silage collection system.  Let’s not get duped again which false and inaccurate information.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 28, 2019, 12:44:25 pm
      Sorry Doug but your memory is so bad that it makes it impossible to have a normal discussion with you. You keep misreading and misunderstanding.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on January 28, 2019, 03:34:31 pm
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

      I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

      You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.
      (https://h2stationmaps.com/sites/default/files/AC-Transit-Emeryville-hyrogen-station.jpg)
      Nice model.  Look at the depth of focus. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 28, 2019, 03:51:01 pm
      The depth of the focus is just a matter of using the right lense. Many photographers do that so have a sharp image of the object of interest and keep the rest blurry.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 28, 2019, 04:58:17 pm
      Sorry Doug but your memory is so bad that it makes it impossible to have a normal discussion with you. You keep misreading and misunderstanding.

      You are right if you choose to lie and deceive we can't have an intelligent conversation.  It is you that chooses to lie and deceive with biofuels and now with hydrogen fuel.  The following is from the hydrogen fueling companies web site.  Where does the company say hydrogen gas is mainly coming from?  Hmmm, that's just what I said and what was in the video.  It's right on the company's we site where you got the picture from.  Try reading it and then call me a liar.

      “Today, hydrogen is mainly produced by steam reforming fossil fuels such as natural gas. Excess hydrogen is also recovered as a by-product from various industrial processes. Even though hydrogen generated from fossil feedstocks has the advantage of zero-tailpipe emissions, the production chain still leaves a carbon footprint. Well-to-wheel emissions of a hydrogen fuel-cell car are nonetheless approximately 30% lower than those of a conventional diesel-powered car.

      Building on these conventional hydrogen production techniques and Linde’s experience of more than 100 years of H2 production, we are actively developing technologies to ultimately increase the share of renewably produced hydrogen.”


      You know there's what you believe to be true and can't communicate. And then there is science and language which is the truth everyone can share in and communicate with.  You might want to work on improving both your language and science skills.  Folks here in the form have been trying to help you with both, but for some reason you just haven't improved.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 28, 2019, 05:00:36 pm
      According to the video i posted, the electricity cost per km for a tesla model 3 is 2 to 2.4 cents, while they hydrogen cost per km for the toyota mirai is 17.7 cents. The tesla model 3 long-range comes with a battery warranty of 8 years or 120000 miles (193000 km), so, for that many miles, the electricity cost is $4632 (at 2.4 cents/km), while the hydrogen cost would be $34161. A difference of $29529.

      So, about cost, that doesn't looks good for the mirai. But the mirai has the convenience of a fast fillup. If there where enough stations for the trip, of course.
      You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure. Sure the Mirai is more expensive right now. It isn't a production car like the Tesla. The same goes for hydrogen. The development of hydrogen is behind compared to pure EVs so right now everything is more expensive. Currently it is very hard to make an accurate estimation on what will be cheaper in a few years taking all costs into account. I've read an old report from 2014 which claims that the infrastructure for hydrogen will be 4 times cheaper than the infrastructure needed to charge EVs. But it is hard to tell how valid that number is in today's situation.
      At 8 years of battery warranty, and 10 years of expected use until you really need to change them, i assume that most people will change cars by that time. Either battery, or hydrogen based.

      I don't see how the hydrogen infrastructure could be cheaper, considering that you need additional steps over the process to charge an BEV, and the steps have lower efficiency, so they need to use more energy to give you a determined amount of kWh:

      Battery vehicle: mains voltage -> rectifier/charger -> car
      Hydrogen vehicle: mains voltage -> rectifier/electrolyzer -> compressor -> car

      And that's with a station that does the electrolysis on-site, so that there is no hydrogen transport involved. I don't know how many of them are out there, but at least the YT video seems to have used one of those to do the maths.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 28, 2019, 05:10:29 pm
      If you want to use EVs on a mass scale without batteries which can be fully charged with 500km of range within 5 minutes you'll need lots of charging points. In the Netherlands it is estimated that there has to be 1 charging point for every 2.5 cars for EVs to be useful. That means that the entire electricity distribution system will need to be replaced (upgraded) BESIDES paying for all the chargers. With hydrogen the current distribution grid of gas stations will suffice and many more people can share the infrastructure so the cost per person will be lower.

      At some point there is an optimum for cost and efficiency. That point won't be at the maximum efficiency so don't look primarily at the efficiency.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 28, 2019, 05:15:32 pm
      Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

      I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

      You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.
      (https://h2stationmaps.com/sites/default/files/AC-Transit-Emeryville-hyrogen-station.jpg)
      Nice model.  Look at the depth of focus.

      Little does our friend nctnico know but I live not more than 15 minutes from where this picture was taken.  It is the bus yard for the city buses in Emeryville which is right by Pixar.  There are actually two banks of solar panels.  It's funny that they did not include the other bank of solar panels it's just off to the left unless they were trying to not show something.  Just a slightly wider camera angle would have showed the other fueling station.  But maybe they didn't show it because it's just for busses and they are focusing on car refueling.

      What I don't get is why nctnico keep posting lies and misleading information.  Just looked on a map and the Chevron refinery where the hydrogen gas is produced is just 9 miles away. 

      Here we provide nctnico with the evidence that he's mistaken and he doesn't accept it.  I just don't get people like that.

       

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 28, 2019, 05:25:36 pm
      According to the video i posted, the electricity cost per km for a tesla model 3 is 2 to 2.4 cents, while they hydrogen cost per km for the toyota mirai is 17.7 cents. The tesla model 3 long-range comes with a battery warranty of 8 years or 120000 miles (193000 km), so, for that many miles, the electricity cost is $4632 (at 2.4 cents/km), while the hydrogen cost would be $34161. A difference of $29529.

      So, about cost, that doesn't looks good for the mirai. But the mirai has the convenience of a fast fillup. If there where enough stations for the trip, of course.
      You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure. Sure the Mirai is more expensive right now. It isn't a production car like the Tesla. The same goes for hydrogen. The development of hydrogen is behind compared to pure EVs so right now everything is more expensive. Currently it is very hard to make an accurate estimation on what will be cheaper in a few years taking all costs into account. I've read an old report from 2014 which claims that the infrastructure for hydrogen will be 4 times cheaper than the infrastructure needed to charge EVs. But it is hard to tell how valid that number is in today's situation.
      At 8 years of battery warranty, and 10 years of expected use until you really need to change them, i assume that most people will change cars by that time. Either battery, or hydrogen based.

      I don't see how the hydrogen infrastructure could be cheaper, considering that you need additional steps over the process to charge an BEV, and the steps have lower efficiency, so they need to use more energy to give you a determined amount of kWh:

      Battery vehicle: mains voltage -> rectifier/charger -> car
      Hydrogen vehicle: mains voltage -> rectifier/electrolyzer -> compressor -> car

      And that's with a station that does the electrolysis on-site, so that there is no hydrogen transport involved. I don't know how many of them are out there, but at least the YT video seems to have used one of those to do the maths.

      There is only one experimental station using electrolysis to produce hydrogen which is located in Germany.  As is stated in the video it's impossible for it to be cheaper with the technology we have.  Hydrogen from fossil fuels is just too costly.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fsr on January 28, 2019, 08:59:07 pm
      If you want to use EVs on a mass scale without batteries which can be fully charged with 500km of range within 5 minutes you'll need lots of charging points. In the Netherlands it is estimated that there has to be 1 charging point for every 2.5 cars for EVs to be useful. That means that the entire electricity distribution system will need to be replaced (upgraded) BESIDES paying for all the chargers. With hydrogen the current distribution grid of gas stations will suffice and many more people can share the infrastructure so the cost per person will be lower.

      At some point there is an optimum for cost and efficiency. That point won't be at the maximum efficiency so don't look primarily at the efficiency.
      But hydrogen stations need more electricity per kWh-equivalent on the cars, so the grid will need to be upgraded anyways. I suppose that you could use huge tanks on the stations and constantly produce hydrogen, for it to act as a buffer, so that during peak demand you don't need a ridiculous amount of energy. On average, the power needed will be higher, however.
      That is, when hydrogen stations are made that use 100% electrolysis-produced hydrogen. Otherwise, they're not zero-emissions.
      Both the hydrogen and battery cars do require green energy production to be zero-emissions, but the hydrogen also needs to be 100% made from electrolysis.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 28, 2019, 09:11:48 pm
      It's not like the infrastructure for hydrogen is going to be cheap either. I can't imagine it will be anything but orders of magnitude more expensive with hydrogen generators, compressors, cooling, hydrogen pipelines, high pressure tanks, refueling stations, hydrogen shipping with trucks/trains/boats, specialist workers, etc. Compare all that with chargers for BEVs. On top of that you have to drive extra just to refuel a hydrogen car, while a BEV can be recharged while it's parked.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 28, 2019, 09:37:08 pm
      If you want to use EVs on a mass scale without batteries which can be fully charged with 500km of range within 5 minutes you'll need lots of charging points. In the Netherlands it is estimated that there has to be 1 charging point for every 2.5 cars for EVs to be useful. That means that the entire electricity distribution system will need to be replaced (upgraded) BESIDES paying for all the chargers. With hydrogen the current distribution grid of gas stations will suffice and many more people can share the infrastructure so the cost per person will be lower.

      At some point there is an optimum for cost and efficiency. That point won't be at the maximum efficiency so don't look primarily at the efficiency.
      But hydrogen stations need more electricity per kWh-equivalent on the cars, so the grid will need to be upgraded anyways. I suppose that you could use huge tanks on the stations and constantly produce hydrogen, for it to act as a buffer, so that during peak demand you don't need a ridiculous amount of energy. On average, the power needed will be higher, however.
      That is, when hydrogen stations are made that use 100% electrolysis-produced hydrogen. Otherwise, they're not zero-emissions.
      Both the hydrogen and battery cars do require green energy production to be zero-emissions, but the hydrogen also needs to be 100% made from electrolysis.
      The way I see it hydrogen makes most sense when it is made at a source like wind or solar (think wind turbines far off-shore and solar in countries with a lot of sun). Converting the electricity to hydrogen will be cheaper because you can use ships to transport the hydrogen. Compare it with oil. A lot of oil is transported using ships because pipelines are too expensive to cover the distance. I'm still sure all this will be cheaper compared to implementing a large electricity grid and storage in batteries (let alone the distribution grid to all the chargers and the chargers themselves). Think about Australia for example. They have a massive amount of space for solar but no way to transport large quantities of electricity outside the country. When converted to hydrogen they can export the energy world wide. The same goes for many countries in the middle east.

      Until then some kind of transition needs to be made because the renewable sources are not going to be installed over night. Ultimately some business model needs to emerge for a company to invest in a large scale solar or wind power hydrogen generation plant. That will only happen if there is a large enough demand. Right now hydrogen might be less efficient than using electricity to power an EV directly but to me the economic advantages of hydrogen in the long run are clearly there. EVs and grid storage batteries are a dead end IMHO. It just doesn't scale.

      And even then it is not a given hydrogen will ever be used to power cars on a large scale. In my opinion bio-fuels hold the best cards at the moment because the process in itself is very low-tech. Even for the third generation bio-fuels (which comes down to brewing beer from plant leftovers and distilling it). Bio-fuels also don't require the consumers to invest in new technology (=buy a new car) so the threshold for adoption is extremely low. Currently the Duth government is pushing gas stations to make blends with higher amounts of ethanol available at every gas station. Once implemented it will push the CO2 emissions down immediately. No tax incentive for EVs or hydrogen will be as effective to reduce CO2 emissions quickly.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on January 28, 2019, 10:21:04 pm
      If you want to use EVs on a mass scale without batteries which can be fully charged with 500km of range within 5 minutes you'll need lots of charging points. In the Netherlands it is estimated that there has to be 1 charging point for every 2.5 cars for EVs to be useful. That means that the entire electricity distribution system will need to be replaced (upgraded) BESIDES paying for all the chargers. With hydrogen the current distribution grid of gas stations will suffice and many more people can share the infrastructure so the cost per person will be lower.

      At some point there is an optimum for cost and efficiency. That point won't be at the maximum efficiency so don't look primarily at the efficiency.
      But hydrogen stations need more electricity per kWh-equivalent on the cars, so the grid will need to be upgraded anyways. I suppose that you could use huge tanks on the stations and constantly produce hydrogen, for it to act as a buffer, so that during peak demand you don't need a ridiculous amount of energy. On average, the power needed will be higher, however.
      That is, when hydrogen stations are made that use 100% electrolysis-produced hydrogen. Otherwise, they're not zero-emissions.
      Both the hydrogen and battery cars do require green energy production to be zero-emissions, but the hydrogen also needs to be 100% made from electrolysis.
      The way I see it hydrogen makes most sense when it is made at a source like wind or solar (think wind turbines far off-shore and solar in countries with a lot of sun). Converting the electricity to hydrogen will be cheaper because you can use ships to transport the hydrogen. Compare it with oil. A lot of oil is transported using ships because pipelines are too expensive to cover the distance. I'm still sure all this will be cheaper compared to implementing a large electricity grid and storage in batteries (let alone the distribution grid to all the chargers and the chargers themselves). Think about Australia for example. They have a massive amount of space for solar but no way to transport large quantities of electricity outside the country. When converted to hydrogen they can export the energy world wide. The same goes for many countries in the middle east.

      Until then some kind of transition needs to be made because the renewable sources are not going to be installed over night. Ultimately some business model needs to emerge for a company to invest in a large scale solar or wind power hydrogen generation plant. That will only happen if there is a large enough demand. Right now hydrogen might be less efficient than using electricity to power an EV directly but to me the economic advantages of hydrogen in the long run are clearly there. EVs and grid storage batteries are a dead end IMHO. It just doesn't scale.

      And even then it is not a given hydrogen will ever be used to power cars on a large scale. In my opinion bio-fuels hold the best cards at the moment because the process in itself is very low-tech. Even for the third generation bio-fuels (which comes down to brewing beer from plant leftovers and distilling it). Bio-fuels also don't require the consumers to invest in new technology (=buy a new car) so the threshold for adoption is extremely low. Currently the Duth government is pushing gas stations to make blends with higher amounts of ethanol available at every gas station. Once implemented it will push the CO2 emissions down immediately. No tax incentive for EVs or hydrogen will be as effective to reduce CO2 emissions quickly.

      Yes that is what you believe....  And then there is science and the laws of physics.  Just as there are people who believe in free energy and perpetual motion machines that doesn't mean they will work or that someone can ever get them to work.  That's why we have science to get the truth of all of these beliefs.  In theory we could cover all of Australia with solar panels and have the solar panels produce hydrogen through electrolysis.  But you do realize you would be creating another ecological disaster with all of that oxygen that's going to be produced.  Australia and California are both having problems with massive wild fires, and you want to increase the oxygen level of our atmosphere?  Not really a well thought out plan.  If  you watched and more importantly understood what was said in the video about producing oxygen through electrolysis you would need to consume more hydrogen than is produced to compress, chill and transport the hydrogen from Australia than the amount of hydrogen that would be produced.

      And you really think the middle east which is "rich" in oil and already has hydrogen from fossil fuels would buy the more expensive hydrogen from Australia?

      Not saying you don't have interesting ideas, they are.  But if you had taken and passed a high school chemistry and physics class you understand why what you are proposing just isn't practical and is a silly as perpetual motion machines and free energy.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 29, 2019, 10:47:36 pm
      I found this interesting bit of information published last year by the international energy agency: Strong policy and falling battery costs drive another record year for electric cars (https://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2018/may/strong-policy-and-falling-battery-costs-drive-another-record-year-for-electric-ca.html). Unfortunately the actual report requires signup.

      "Looking forward, supportive policies and cost reductions are likely to lead to continued significant growth in the EV market. In the IEA’s New Policies Scenario, which takes into account current and planned policies, the number of electric cars is projected to reach 125 million units by 2030. Should policy ambitions rise even further to meet climate goals and other sustainability targets, as in the EV30@30 Scenario, the number of electric cars on the road could be as high as 220 million in 2030."

      Couldn't find any exact numbers of the total number of cars, but google indicates a bit over 1 billion, so 125 million would be about 10% of all cars (and I assume a much higher percentage of new cars).

      If one compare that to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles they have a lot of catching up to do. Currently there are only 3 hydrogen refueling stations here in Sweden.

      Also couldn't help but notice that the IAE writes that the world needs more nuclear energy if we are going to meet the "Sustainable Development Scenario, a pathway to reach the Paris Agreement well below 2°C climate goal, deliver universal energy access and significantly lower air pollution."
      https://www.iea.org/tcep/power/nuclear/ (https://www.iea.org/tcep/power/nuclear/)

      While EV adaptation are going great the big picture isn't quite as bright:
      https://www.iea.org/tcep/ (https://www.iea.org/tcep/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on January 30, 2019, 09:07:59 am
      "Looking forward, supportive policies and cost reductions are likely to lead to continued significant growth in the EV market. In the IEA’s New Policies Scenario, which takes into account current and planned policies, the number of electric cars is projected to reach 125 million units by 2030. Should policy ambitions rise even further to meet climate goals and other sustainability targets, as in the EV30@30 Scenario, the number of electric cars on the road could be as high as 220 million in 2030."
      That seems too little too late to me. The CO2 reduction required by the Paris agreement calls for a much bigger reduction in CO2 emissions. Replacing 10% of the cars isn't going to make much of a difference.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on January 30, 2019, 03:57:27 pm
      EVs is only one of many ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The iea tracks several different sectors:

      https://www.iea.org/tcep/ (https://www.iea.org/tcep/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 01, 2019, 05:37:55 am
      Here's a twist on autonomous self-driving cars no one has discussed so far.  I was at a cybersecurity conference today in San Francisco toady.  One of the presenters was speaking on data privacy and personal data privacy.  One of the questions he asked the audience what is the "push" to get autonomous self-driving cars to market.  (Never saw this one coming.)  The reason Google, Waymo, Apple and the venture capitalists want to see autonomous self-driving cars on the road is to collect personal data on the passengers and be able to market to them while in the car.  Just think of the gold mine of data the companies can collect on the passengers. 

      Just think of the profits companies like Google and Facebook selling your personal data and your meta data.  It only takes a few hundred of your "Like" clicks to have a Big Data profile on you.  Advertisers are willing to pay a premium for that information.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 01, 2019, 09:32:29 am
      Here's a twist on autonomous self-driving cars no one has discussed so far.  I was at a cybersecurity conference today in San Francisco toady.  One of the presenters was speaking on data privacy and personal data privacy.  One of the questions he asked the audience what is the "push" to get autonomous self-driving cars to market.  (Never saw this one coming.)  The reason Google, Waymo, Apple and the venture capitalists want to see autonomous self-driving cars on the road is to collect personal data on the passengers and be able to market to them while in the car.  Just think of the gold mine of data the companies can collect on the passengers. 

      Just think of the profits companies like Google and Facebook selling your personal data and your meta data.  It only takes a few hundred of your "Like" clicks to have a Big Data profile on you.  Advertisers are willing to pay a premium for that information.
      This was said from the very beginning of autonomous car development. Something like "why waste hours driving, when you could spend that time using the internet and looking at our sites".
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 01, 2019, 09:40:38 am
      People are already wary of this and I highly doubt this idea is going to 'fly'.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 03, 2019, 11:23:04 am
      Interesting video of journalists observing WayMo cars in Chandler, Arizona
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spw176TZ7-8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spw176TZ7-8)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 03, 2019, 03:36:22 pm
      Waymo automous cars have driven over 1 million miles and Tesla over 1 billion miles and it still looks like they drive like my 15 year old kid,  but let’s not let that get in the way of making money by collecting big data on the peole who would ride in automous vehicles.  Being able to market products to passengers in automous vehicles is where the big money is at.

      This video bring up an interesting question about automous cars.  What happens when they come upon an accident scene where a police officer is directing traffic with hand signals?  Can the AI in the cars detect hand signals and follow them?  What if the direction is to drive out of the lane of traffic and onto the shoulder of the road?

      Talk given at MIT in 2019 about the state of autonomous cars.
      https://youtu.be/sRxaMDDMWQQ
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 03, 2019, 06:40:05 pm
      Waymo automous cars have driven over 1 million miles and Tesla over 1 billion miles and it still looks like they drive like my 15 year old kid,  but let’s not let that get in the way of making money by collecting big data on the peole who would ride in automous vehicles.  Being able to market products to passengers in automous vehicles is where the big money is at.

      This video bring up an interesting question about autonomous cars.  What happens when they come upon an accident scene where a police officer is directing traffic with hand signals?  Can the AI in the cars detect hand signals and follow them?  What if the direction is to drive out of the lane of traffic and onto the shoulder of the road?
      In the video I posted there seems to be a broken car which the human drivers were negotiating quite reasonably, while the WayMo car just seems to keep moving forwards until it reaches the broken car, where the safety driver has to take action. I was amused when the journalist said that they never saw a WayMo car automatically take the left turn that leads to the WayMo depot.

      Talk given at MIT in 2019 about the state of autonomous cars.
      https://youtu.be/sRxaMDDMWQQ
      I watched the first 5 minutes of that video, but its more like a sales pitch than a serious university talk.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 03, 2019, 07:12:23 pm
      Waymo automous cars have driven over 1 million miles and Tesla over 1 billion miles and it still looks like they drive like my 15 year old kid,  but let’s not let that get in the way of making money by collecting big data on the peole who would ride in automous vehicles.  Being able to market products to passengers in automous vehicles is where the big money is at.

      This video bring up an interesting question about autonomous cars.  What happens when they come upon an accident scene where a police officer is directing traffic with hand signals?  Can the AI in the cars detect hand signals and follow them?  What if the direction is to drive out of the lane of traffic and onto the shoulder of the road?
      In the video I posted there seems to be a broken car which the human drivers were negotiating quite reasonably, while the WayMo car just seems to keep moving forwards until it reaches the broken car, where the safety driver has to take action. I was amused when the journalist said that they never saw a WayMo car automatically take the left turn that leads to the WayMo depot.

      Talk given at MIT in 2019 about the state of autonomous cars.
      https://youtu.be/sRxaMDDMWQQ
      I watched the first 5 minutes of that video, but its more like a sales pitch than a serious university talk.

      My felling too, but continue watching.  At first I thought this might be a presentation at a symposium MIT was sponsoring.  But then the guy keep saying there will be guest speakers in the class which makes me think this is an MIT university semester long class.  But then why is he wearing a suit?  None of my professors ever wore suits.  But maybe professors wearing suits are an East Coast or MIT thing.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on February 03, 2019, 07:19:16 pm
      Well, the MIT will someday need more salesmen than professors to be able to keep running. So this is not surprising.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 03, 2019, 07:25:53 pm
      Well, the MIT will someday need more salesmen than professors to be able to keep running. So this is not surprising.

      That is the case with every university.  Sadly UC Berkley known for physics and creating several of the elements has sold out to football.  The university spends $16 million every year on the football program to bring in $9 million in revenues.  The football coach is paid something like 4 million while the physics professors are making a fraction of that.

      Just goes to show what are priorities are?  Football or reducing CO2 emissions?





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on February 03, 2019, 07:39:51 pm
      Unfortunately, the priority is to keep money flowing IMO. If your figures are right, it shows that the financial outcome is not even positive in some cases. Up to a point (which is obviously bankruptcy), it doesn't seem to matter. The whole point is to generate money flow. (Incidentally this is not restricted to universities, this is also true for some private companies, especially the bigger ones.)

      Science fucked by fucked economy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on February 04, 2019, 07:27:45 pm
      Waymo automous cars have driven over 1 million miles and Tesla over 1 billion miles and it still looks like they drive like my 15 year old kid,  but let’s not let that get in the way of making money by collecting big data on the peole who would ride in automous vehicles.  Being able to market products to passengers in automous vehicles is where the big money is at.
      Ads cost about $0.6/hour while driving cost about $20/hour. Ads cant pay for a ride, i.e. they are not doing it for the ads.

      Tesla cars are not fully autonomous, their cruise control can not be compared to a fully autonomous system like what Waymo have.

      I'm certain Waymo's robocars drive better (safer) than either you or your 15 year old kid (or me, i.e. better than most humans) except in some edge cases. Why it looks a little bit hesitant in the previous video is because they are programmed to be as safe as possible, they rather err on the side of caution. That video was just made to find faults, and they followed Waymo cars around for hours (days?) and yet that was all they came up with? Looks like they are doing just fine.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 04, 2019, 07:55:21 pm
      Waymo automous cars have driven over 1 million miles and Tesla over 1 billion miles and it still looks like they drive like my 15 year old kid,  but let’s not let that get in the way of making money by collecting big data on the peole who would ride in automous vehicles.  Being able to market products to passengers in automous vehicles is where the big money is at.
      Ads cost about $0.6/hour while driving cost about $20/hour. Ads cant pay for a ride, i.e. they are not doing it for the ads.


      Why do you think ads can't pay for a ride?  Don't you have Megabus?  I know they are in the United States and in the England and probably in other countries.  I can travel from San Francisco to Los Angles for $1.  How?  Ads.  It is ads that allow me to travel for just $1.00.

      Expect it to be worse with self driving cars.  Not only will passengers pay for the ride while the self driving companies collect for free the meta data about the passenger.  Using the app they know exactly who you are.  (Cookie.)  Then as you use your smartphone or computer in the car they will collect you meta data.  Your meta data is worth more than gold or platinum to advertisers.

      The venture capitalists are the driving force behind self driving cars.  Don't you get it?  The are the ones who will determine your route and can intentionally route you buy stores and restaurants who are paying them.  During your entire trip they can alert you to specials.

      I was just at a seminar in San Francisco on privacy last week.  The venture capitalists and advertising companies are fighting California's pending privacy laws.  Similar to GDRP in Europe.  With GDRP I would expect Europe to be one of the last places to get self driving cars.

      Self driving cars is expected to be a multibillion if not trillion dollar business just from collecting the meta data and ad revenue.  This is the direction Ford is headed.  Have you listened to interviews with Ford's new CEO?  They are getting out of the car business and want to be in the technology and data business.

       

       


       


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 04, 2019, 07:58:46 pm
      My felling too, but continue watching.  At first I thought this might be a presentation at a symposium MIT was sponsoring.  But then the guy keep saying there will be guest speakers in the class which makes me think this is an MIT university semester long class.  But then why is he wearing a suit?  None of my professors ever wore suits.  But maybe professors wearing suits are an East Coast or MIT thing.
      I continued through that video and a couple of his other ones. Once he gets past the sales pitch he gets very realistic. This seems to be an annual course, where some lectures are from MIT staff, and some from senior people in the leading autonomous car companies. So far you can see some lectures from this year, and some from last year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on February 04, 2019, 09:12:56 pm
      Ads cost about $0.6/hour while driving cost about $20/hour. Ads cant pay for a ride, i.e. they are not doing it for the ads.
      Why do you think ads can't pay for a ride?  Don't you have Megabus?  I know they are in the United States and in the England and probably in other countries.  I can travel from San Francisco to Los Angles for $1.  How?  Ads.  It is ads that allow me to travel for just $1.00.
      No we don't have Megabus, and from what I can tell it doesn't cost $1 for most passengers:
      Quote
      Megabus follows the yield management model, typically used by airlines, where the lowest fares are offered to those who book early (normally, only one or two seats are sold for 1.00 per schedule), so the less popular schedules tend to be less expensive.
      source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megabus_(North_America)
      The wikipedia article says nothing about the rides being ad-financed?

      Expect it to be worse with self driving cars.
      Maybe they will have advertising in the cars, but that's not why they are doing it. Transportation is a much bigger business than advertising.

      The venture capitalists are the driving force behind self driving cars.
      I wouldn't say that. Google is the driving force behind self driving cars. I think I know the reason and it has less to do with profit than one might think. But it will be very profitable for them, no doubt, and others have realised that and have jumped on the bandwagon hoping they can compete with Google (which they can't because Google has a very long head start, have hired all the best experts in the field and have a huge amount of capital they can invest if/when needed).

      I was just at a seminar in San Francisco on privacy last week.  The venture capitalists and advertising companies are fighting California's pending privacy laws.  Similar to GDRP in Europe.  With GDRP I would expect Europe to be one of the last places to get self driving cars.
      Collecting and selling data about people is a problem, but it has little to do with robocars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 04, 2019, 09:29:50 pm
      Expect it to be worse with self driving cars.
      Maybe they will have advertising in the cars, but that's not why they are doing it. Transportation is a much bigger business than advertising.
      I agree. Besides that lots of people pay extra to get rid of ads nowadays. It is why Netflix and other online streaming platforms are doing so well and continue to grow . Any business relying on income from advertisements is going to fade away. It is old style thinking.
      The use of ad-blockers shows a steady growth:
      (https://static.businessinsider.com/image/5890c508713ba11c008b5b52-750.jpg)
      Using influencers like b/vloggers is the new way of doing targeted marketing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 04, 2019, 10:28:03 pm
      This is not about ads in the cars.  People would hate that.  It's all about collecting the meta data about you.  Do you not understand how valuable that information is?  Using YOUR meta data advertisers can have you travel down street businesses you are most likely to go spend money at.  You do realize with the self driving car app they know exactly who you are.  And with your meta data, your age, sex, race, religion, yearly income, where you live, what you like to do, political affiliation, where you like to shop and if this were Facebook over 600 pieces of profile about you.

      Are you familiar with what the census data IBM was tracking for the Nazi's during World War II?  If not read the book "IBM and the Holocaust".  Spoiler alert IBM's "computers" could produce census reports to the Nazi's so they could identify and target groups of people based on race, religion, profession and what ever else would fit on an 80 column punch card.  IBM provided names and addresses as well at the rate of 25,000 people per hour per machine. 

      Read the book  or the short read here
      https://allthatsinteresting.com/ibm-nazis-ww2

      Do you have any idea how easy it would be for an advertisers or government to target a specific group of people with meta data.  With just 200 "Like" clicks on Facebook they know with a 99% degree of accuracy who you are and have an extensive profile about you.

      GDPR is something advertisers hate.  In the US we are still struggling with privacy and meta data.  Have you seen the size of the "secret" government data center in Utah the US has to collect the meta data?

      To my European and especially German friends don't think you are alone with mass genocide.  Here in the United States we still haven't come to grips with slavery.  And why the Germans are teaching kids about the Holocaust, here in the United States we go out of our way not to teach or even mention the genocide we committed.  We've killed over 100 million Native American (Indianans) over the past 500 years and the sad part is we are still doing it.  We still have Native Americans living on reservations which is the American version of a concentration camp.

      Sorry to go off on this privacy thing, but this is a huge issue for us here in America.   Facebooks meta data was used to influence our elections.  (Like we haven't done the same in other countries.)  But it's also been used to target African-Americans/Blacks in our country.

      Do you have any idea how valuable your meta data is?  Think privacy doesn't matter?  Then give you your bank account and credit card numbers and passwords.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on February 04, 2019, 10:44:51 pm
      Sure, but I don't see what it has to do specifically with self driving cars. Your travel data is already being registered if you hadn't realised. Whenever you buy a ticket for an air plane, a boat, a train, a bus or pay for a taxi they register your data if they can (they want you to use special registered cards, or apps, credit cards, etc). If that was made illegal Google would still continue pushing their robocars because having a monopoly on transportation will be more than profitable enough without selling peoples travel data. Big data and privacy is a separate problem.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: SiliconWizard on February 04, 2019, 11:39:13 pm
      Any business relying on income from advertisements is going to fade away. It is old style thinking.
      The use of ad-blockers shows a steady growth:
      (...)

      Certainly, but I'm not sure this business model is going away anytime soon though.

      That said, when it's gone, it will probably not be good news. As DougSpindler pointed out, this will all be about your own data being sold to whoever is willing to pay for it. It has tremendous value. It's already the case, but when the advertisement business model is gone (if it ever does), that will mean that it's been replaced by something much worse and that we won't be able to escape from.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on February 04, 2019, 11:44:01 pm
      What prevents them from lobbying until ad-blockers become illegal? Looking at how things are going with copyright issues that seems to be the more likely scenario.

      Quote
      The original length of copyright in the United States was 14 years, and it had to be explicitly applied for. If the author wished, they could apply for a second 14‑year monopoly grant, but after that the work entered the public domain, so it could be used and built upon by others.

      Today it's:

      Quote
      In most of the world, the default length of copyright is the life of the author plus either 50 or 70 years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 05, 2019, 12:16:58 am
      What prevents them from lobbying until ad-blockers become illegal? Looking at how things are going with copyright issues that seems to be the more likely scenario.

      "The original length of copyright in the United States was 14 years, and it had to be explicitly applied for. If the author wished, they could apply for a second 14‑year monopoly grant, but after that the work entered the public domain, so it could be used and built upon by others."

      Today it's:

      "In most of the world, the default length of copyright is the life of the author plus either 50 or 70 years."

      You are mistaken about copyright laws in the United States.  Take a look at "It's a Wonderful Life".  Can't remember but I think it's the death of the creator plus 100 years.  You'll need to verify.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on February 05, 2019, 12:39:02 am
      Quote
      The 1998 Act extended these terms to life of the author plus 70 years and for works of corporate authorship to 120 years after creation or 95 years after publication, whichever end is earlier. Copyright protection for works published before January 1, 1978, was increased by 20 years to a total of 95 years from their publication date.
      Source: Wikipedia 1 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_copyright_law_of_the_United_States#Major_amendments_to_federal_copyright_law) 2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_Term_Extension_Act)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 05, 2019, 01:12:39 am
      Sure, but I don't see what it has to do specifically with self driving cars. Your travel data is already being registered if you hadn't realised. Whenever you buy a ticket for an air plane, a boat, a train, a bus or pay for a taxi they register your data if they can (they want you to use special registered cards, or apps, credit cards, etc). If that was made illegal Google would still continue pushing their robocars because having a monopoly on transportation will be more than profitable enough without selling peoples travel data. Big data and privacy is a separate problem.

      Guess I'm not doing a good job of explaining. Can I try again? When you buy a plane, bus or train ticket you are traveling with a heard of people on a fixed route.  Traveling in an self driving car the advertiser gets to select your route.  So let's say it's a Friday night and AI route engine looks at your profile and knows you like to drink, visit strip clubs and walk around in high heals.  Just like Google does for search ads, bars, strip clubs and women's show stores could all bid to have the car you are driving in drive slowly by their place of business.  They could pay a premium and to have the car slow and even text or Bluetooth you with an offer.  While none of these business were your destination driving by and enticing you with a promotion could change your mind.  Now if you have the car stop and make a purchase a pair of 6" stiletto heels it's a huge score for the business and the advertiser.  Using the discount code gives the advertiser more meta data specifically about you.  Just think what this one trip reveals about you.  You are a sucker for discount codes, you are persuadable and like tall heals.  See where this is going?

      Now it's Sunday morning.  Do you go to church, your meta data knows.  Which church do you go to?  What do you go after church?  All of this is innocent enough, right?  If you think so, you do not understand the power of meta data and big data.  The AI meta data engine knows now if you are religious or not and what you do on Sundays.  See where this can lead?  Just think how valuable your meta data with just a couple of trips to advertisers.  Don't you think those people in the religious advising business would love to know if you go to church, how often, to which church and if you wear those pink 6" stiletto heels to church or not.

      None of this would be possible if you were on a plane, train or if you used any other mass transit.  When you travel alone in a vehicle you are the target of an advertising campaign.

      See were this is going?  Then lets say some dictator or religious leader comes to power and is access your meta data.  They know where you and your stiletto heels live..... But maybe not for long if the dictator prefers black stiletto heels.

      You probably don't know about the story of the father who found out his teenage daughter was pregnant by Target (stores) meta data AI engine.  The daughter's meta data purchase history exposed there was no immaculate conception taking place in her bedroom.
      https://www.businessinsider.com/the-incredible-story-of-how-target-exposed-a-teen-girls-pregnancy-2012-2 (https://www.businessinsider.com/the-incredible-story-of-how-target-exposed-a-teen-girls-pregnancy-2012-2)

      Your meta data profiles with an AI engine know more about you, than you know about yourself.

      What meta data can and AI can tell the world about you is some scary stuff.  Good thing we don't use this in America to see who might commit a crime and arrest them before the crime is committed.  Oops, that's not true anymore...  This is something law enforcement is doing.  Questions is a society do we care if law AI gets it wrong?




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 05, 2019, 02:01:38 am
      This is not about ads in the cars.  People would hate that.  It's all about collecting the meta data about you.  Do you not understand how valuable that information is?  Using YOUR meta data advertisers can have you travel down street businesses you are most likely to go spend money at.
      In that case the car would always be driving me home. I rarely go to shops. Except for food I buy 99% online and for food I always go to the same store. Also: wouldn't people get pissed off if their car takes a detour? Taxi drivers sometimes do that. Happened to me in Copenhagen (Denmark): this is the red-light district sir. In a completely unimpressed tone I told the driver I'm from Amsterdam after which the drive said sorry and turned the meter off for the rest of the trip.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 05, 2019, 02:23:05 am
      This is not about ads in the cars.  People would hate that.  It's all about collecting the meta data about you.  Do you not understand how valuable that information is?  Using YOUR meta data advertisers can have you travel down street businesses you are most likely to go spend money at.
      In that case the car would always be driving me home. I rarely go to shops. Except for food I buy 99% online and for food I always go to the same store. Also: wouldn't people get pissed off if their car takes a detour? Taxi drivers sometimes do that. Happened to me in Copenhagen (Denmark): this is the red-light district sir. In a completely unimpressed tone I told the driver I'm from Amsterdam after which the drive said sorry and turned the meter off for the rest of the trip.

      Who said anything about a detour, I never did.  The AI engine along with meta data and advertisers dollars would determine the 'best" route for you.  And it's not like you going to be able to grab the wheel or yell at the driver to take a different way.  You are the perfect target for advertisers.  Just look at what you revealed to everyone in your post.  Food stores would pay to have your car drive past their stores and entice you to come in.  And since most of what you buy is online, what if you could get the same item from a store that's right outside your door for the same price?  Would you have the car stop and buy it?

      It's the advertisers job to get you to spend money and buy something you may or may not have intended to buy.  Unlike at train, plane or bus which has lots of people and a predetermined route in a self driving car the route can change and with you being the only passenger in the car you are the direct target of the advertising.  Could be through texts, Bluetooth, email, app, website or a screen in the car.  But more important is the advertisers every time you take a trip collect more meta data about you.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on February 05, 2019, 03:11:02 am
      I still don't think robocars will make much of a difference when it comes to collecting data about people. Either way, it's not specific to self driving cars so why single them out?. Here in Sweden they made it legal for the US military to collect raw internet traffic data a few years ago. That worries me a whole lot more than directed advertising. It means the US military have access to much more data already than what a robotaxi operator could dream about collecting from their passengers. So robotaxis won't make much of a difference, and the way to fix that problem is by making spying illegal, not hold back self driving car technology.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 05, 2019, 03:20:59 am
      I still don't think robocars will make much of a difference when it comes to collecting data about people. Either way, it's not specific to self driving cars so why single them out?. Here in Sweden they made it legal for the US military to collect raw internet traffic data a few years ago. That worries me a whole lot more than directed advertising. It means the US military have access to much more data already than what a robotaxi operator could dream about collecting from their passengers. So robotaxis won't make much of a difference, and the way to fix that problem is by making spying illegal, not hold back self driving car technology.

      Guess that's a difference between Sweden and the United States.  Let me say it again.  Venture capitalists are pushing to get robocars on the road not to make money from the trips or car sales.  What they are after is the meta data and the advertising revenue.  They can already see the huge profits which can be made from meta data of passengers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 05, 2019, 09:22:16 am
      What prevents them from lobbying until ad-blockers become illegal? Looking at how things are going with copyright issues that seems to be the more likely scenario.

      "The original length of copyright in the United States was 14 years, and it had to be explicitly applied for. If the author wished, they could apply for a second 14‑year monopoly grant, but after that the work entered the public domain, so it could be used and built upon by others."

      Today it's:

      "In most of the world, the default length of copyright is the life of the author plus either 50 or 70 years."

      You are mistaken about copyright laws in the United States.  Take a look at "It's a Wonderful Life".  Can't remember but I think it's the death of the creator plus 100 years.  You'll need to verify.
      They call the US copyright act the Disney act for a reason. It extended Disney's copyright on early movies just enough to keep them in copyright, without being so long that it would bring things like Tchaikovsky's ballet scores into copyright.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 05, 2019, 10:22:18 am
      What prevents them from lobbying until ad-blockers become illegal? Looking at how things are going with copyright issues that seems to be the more likely scenario.

      "The original length of copyright in the United States was 14 years, and it had to be explicitly applied for. If the author wished, they could apply for a second 14‑year monopoly grant, but after that the work entered the public domain, so it could be used and built upon by others."

      Today it's:

      "In most of the world, the default length of copyright is the life of the author plus either 50 or 70 years."

      You are mistaken about copyright laws in the United States.  Take a look at "It's a Wonderful Life".  Can't remember but I think it's the death of the creator plus 100 years.  You'll need to verify.
      They call the US copyright act the Disney act for a reason. It extended Disney's copyright on early movies just enough to keep them in copyright, without being so long that it would bring things like Tchaikovsky's ballet scores into copyright.

      From:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_law_of_the_United_States

      The copyright law of the United States is intended to encourage the creation of art and culture by rewarding authors and artists with a set of exclusive rights. Copyright law grants authors and artists the exclusive right to make and sell copies of their works, the right to create derivative works, and the right to perform or display their works publicly. These exclusive rights are subject to a time limit, and generally expire 70 years after the author's death. In the United States, any music composed before January 1, 1923, is generally considered public domain.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 05, 2019, 12:17:25 pm
      This is not about ads in the cars.  People would hate that.  It's all about collecting the meta data about you.  Do you not understand how valuable that information is?  Using YOUR meta data advertisers can have you travel down street businesses you are most likely to go spend money at.
      In that case the car would always be driving me home. I rarely go to shops. Except for food I buy 99% online and for food I always go to the same store. Also: wouldn't people get pissed off if their car takes a detour? Taxi drivers sometimes do that. Happened to me in Copenhagen (Denmark): this is the red-light district sir. In a completely unimpressed tone I told the driver I'm from Amsterdam after which the drive said sorry and turned the meter off for the rest of the trip.
      Who said anything about a detour, I never did.  The AI engine along with meta data and advertisers dollars would determine the 'best" route for you.  And it's not like you going to be able to grab the wheel or yell at the driver to take a different way. 
      A detour is a detour. I wouldn't buy a self driving car if I can't influence the route it will take.
      Quote
      You are the perfect target for advertisers.  Just look at what you revealed to everyone in your post.  Food stores would pay to have your car drive past their stores and entice you to come in.  And since most of what you buy is online, what if you could get the same item from a store that's right outside your door for the same price?  Would you have the car stop and buy it?
      No because it is not the designated food store which has everything I need in one go. Visiting multiple stores is a waste of money. I needed some time to teach my wife that visiting 4 different stores to safe 50 cents on 'bargains' costed way more in gas, parking fees and -most importantly- my wasted time.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on February 05, 2019, 02:40:59 pm
      What prevents them from lobbying until ad-blockers become illegal? Looking at how things are going with copyright issues that seems to be the more likely scenario.

      "The original length of copyright in the United States was 14 years, and it had to be explicitly applied for. If the author wished, they could apply for a second 14‑year monopoly grant, but after that the work entered the public domain, so it could be used and built upon by others."

      Today it's:

      "In most of the world, the default length of copyright is the life of the author plus either 50 or 70 years."

      You are mistaken about copyright laws in the United States.  Take a look at "It's a Wonderful Life".  Can't remember but I think it's the death of the creator plus 100 years.  You'll need to verify.
      They call the US copyright act the Disney act for a reason. It extended Disney's copyright on early movies just enough to keep them in copyright, without being so long that it would bring things like Tchaikovsky's ballet scores into copyright.
      Here in Sweden the copyright lobby have managed to get their own private tax on storage media, so whenever you buy a hard drive, an USB flash drive, a smart phone or any other kind storage media, a percentage goes to a private organisation owned by the music industry that then distribute that money to their members in some way out of government control. Completely insane.
       
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_copying_levy#Sweden
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on February 05, 2019, 04:55:05 pm
       :--
      Here in Sweden the copyright lobby have managed to get their own private tax on storage media, so whenever you buy a hard drive, an USB flash drive, a smart phone or any other kind storage media, a percentage goes to a private organisation owned by the music industry that then distribute that money to their members in some way out of government control. Completely insane.
       
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_copying_levy#Sweden
      Same in the Netherlands but it is indeed strange because it would ligitimize illegal copying media since you already paid for it  :)
      Rational Logic and Law are incompatible.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 05, 2019, 05:11:51 pm
      Unless you live in a one street country I'm sure there are multiple paths to take you from your location to your destination.  What's the difference between a route and a detour?  I use Google maps when traveling from one destination to another and am typically given multiple routes based on time, mileage or traffic conditions.  Each of these routes takes me past different stores and businesses. Why do you call that a detour?  It's just one of many routes.

      From what you have described you AND your wife would be prime candidates to be advertised to when traveling is robo-cars.  The meta data your are providing just in these posts tells a lot about you, your family and shopping habits.  That's exactly what the advertisers AI engine is looking for.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 05, 2019, 05:25:50 pm
      Unless you live in a one street country I'm sure there are multiple paths to take you from your location to your destination.  What's the difference between a route and a detour?  I use Google maps when traveling from one destination to another and am typically given multiple routes based on time, mileage or traffic conditions.  Each of these routes takes me past different stores and businesses. Why do you call that a detour?  It's just one of many routes.
      Cities in Europe are layed out different compared the US in general. In the US you often have a grid of roads so there are many different routes possible to a destination. In Europe you often see that cities have circular road systems (often the result from old fortifications) which have one or two optimal routes. Everything else is a long detour.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 05, 2019, 06:11:45 pm
      Unless you live in a one street country I'm sure there are multiple paths to take you from your location to your destination.  What's the difference between a route and a detour?  I use Google maps when traveling from one destination to another and am typically given multiple routes based on time, mileage or traffic conditions.  Each of these routes takes me past different stores and businesses. Why do you call that a detour?  It's just one of many routes.
      Cities in Europe are layed out different compared the US in general. In the US you often have a grid of roads so there are many different routes possible to a destination. In Europe you often see that cities have circular road systems (often the result from old fortifications) which have one or two optimal routes. Everything else is a long detour.

      Was not my experience in London. Oxford, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Belfast, Dublin, Wales and Frankfurt a few months ago.  In Iceland there was only one road from the Airport to our Hotel, so I will agree with you there.  But once in Reykjavik there were multiple routes to get from one destination to another.  I guess if you lived in the Alps or a the top of the Zugspitze there might only be one route, but even then I'm not so sure.  Even traveling in Switzerland through the Gotthard Road Tunnel there were multiple paths from origin to destination.   I would not consider any of these alternate routes a detour.

      Heck even when we were the small city of Kuchen there were multiple routes to get from one destination to another.

      Even on the small Caribbean island of Montserrat there are multiple routes to get from one location to another.

      What you are describing just has not been my experience in my travels and extended stays in Europe.  So maybe where you live is the exception.






      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 05, 2019, 06:56:59 pm
      Rubbish. If there was an alternative for the Gotthard Road tunnel then why did they bother to dig a 17km long tunnel through one of the thougest mountains to dig a tunnel through? Why do people wait for hours to get through the Gotthard Road tunnel. I hope you are not suggesting to take the Mont-blanc tunnel or drive over the Gotthard mountain. Both are seriously long detours. The latter is a nice scenic route on a sunny day though if you can stomage driving your car over some seriously windy, narrow and steep roads.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 05, 2019, 08:03:29 pm
      Unless you live in a one street country I'm sure there are multiple paths to take you from your location to your destination.  What's the difference between a route and a detour?  I use Google maps when traveling from one destination to another and am typically given multiple routes based on time, mileage or traffic conditions.  Each of these routes takes me past different stores and businesses. Why do you call that a detour?  It's just one of many routes.
      Cities in Europe are layed out different compared the US in general. In the US you often have a grid of roads so there are many different routes possible to a destination. In Europe you often see that cities have circular road systems (often the result from old fortifications) which have one or two optimal routes. Everything else is a long detour.
      In the UK Google maps will usually offer 2 or 3 routes which are pretty similar in length and predicted journey time, and another route or 2 which might be 20% to 50% longer in distance or predicted time. The latter may be good choices if the primary choices are unexpectedly congested. Having only one sensible route is a rarity.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 05, 2019, 11:39:20 pm
      But out of those 3 options 1 usually makes no sense at all and the other is less efficient. So that leaves one or two direct routes. It seems to me Google maps is programmed to show at least 2 or 3 options where one will take the inner city roads and the other one the highway. Some people don't like the inner city roads and some people don't like highways so providing these options makes sense.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 05, 2019, 11:43:02 pm
      But out of those 3 options 1 usually makes no sense at all and the other is less efficient. So that leaves one or two direct routes. It seems to me Google maps is programmed to show at least 2 or 3 options where one will take the inner city roads and the other one the highway. Some people don't like the inner city roads and some people don't like highways so providing these options makes sense.

      Exactly - In a self driving car you won't be given any options and the businesses who pay the advertisers fees will have you driving right by their business a little more slowly.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 05, 2019, 11:50:08 pm
      But out of those 3 options 1 usually makes no sense at all and the other is less efficient. So that leaves one or two direct routes. It seems to me Google maps is programmed to show at least 2 or 3 options where one will take the inner city roads and the other one the highway. Some people don't like the inner city roads and some people don't like highways so providing these options makes sense.

      Exactly - In a self driving car you won't be given any options and the businesses who pay the advertisers fees will have you driving right by their business a little more slowly.
      In most parts of Europe any other route than the most optimal one will be a detour so don't keep insisting self driving cars will show this kind of idiotic behaviour. They won't do that because people will bring them back to the dealership to have the navigation system fixed.

      I just checked some random routes and every time Google maps shows the alternatives like I wrote above.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 05, 2019, 11:53:21 pm
      But out of those 3 options 1 usually makes no sense at all and the other is less efficient. So that leaves one or two direct routes. It seems to me Google maps is programmed to show at least 2 or 3 options where one will take the inner city roads and the other one the highway. Some people don't like the inner city roads and some people don't like highways so providing these options makes sense.

      Exactly - In a self driving car you won't be given any options and the businesses who pay the advertisers fees will have you driving right by their business a little more slowly.
      In most parts of Europe any other route then the most optimal one will be a detour so don't keep insisting self driving cars will show this kind of idiotic behaviour. They won't do that because people will bring them back to the dealership to have the navigation system fixed.

      I just checked some random routes and every time Google maps shows the alternatives like I wrote above.

      Funny your the only one that thinks that.  As others and I have posted that's not been our experience.  Try updating your map app.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 06, 2019, 12:05:46 am
      Yeah sure. I'll give Google a call tomorrow that their maps.google.com website is broken.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 06, 2019, 12:09:33 am
      Yeah sure. I'll give Google a call tomorrow that their maps.google.com website is broken.

      Just trying to understand why you only get one route and why you say everything is a detour?  You are the only one saying this is unique to Europe.  Not been my experience and so far no one else agrees with you.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 06, 2019, 12:21:47 am
      The others probably never really cared to analyse the options Google maps provides.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 06, 2019, 12:23:28 am
      The others probably never really cared to analyse the options Google maps provides.

      Or no one else shares in your reality.  Try dumping your and join the reality everyone else is in.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 06, 2019, 12:30:03 am
      Try it yourself and show the results here. You'll see Google maps will show routes exactly as I described a few posts earlier.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on February 06, 2019, 01:49:37 am
      :--
      Here in Sweden the copyright lobby have managed to get their own private tax on storage media, so whenever you buy a hard drive, an USB flash drive, a smart phone or any other kind storage media, a percentage goes to a private organisation owned by the music industry that then distribute that money to their members in some way out of government control. Completely insane.
       
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_copying_levy#Sweden
      Same in the Netherlands but it is indeed strange because it would ligitimize illegal copying media since you already paid for it  :)
      Rational Logic and Law are incompatible.
      Yes, they introduced it to compensate for losses due to people making private copies and sharing them with their family and friends. That is not ok anymore apparently, but at the same time they insist on their private tax on digital storage. >:(
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: IanMacdonald on February 07, 2019, 06:40:14 pm
      On EVs, thing is, a car is a car and why should anyone be subsidized or given tax breaks to buy a car?

      I was amazed when some Greens started supporting nuclear power after decades of campaigning against it. At least there is some justification there, in that the Greens (rightly or wrongly) think that CO2 from fossil fuels will destroy the planet.

      In the case of EVs though, Greens promoting car sales would seem to go against all of their basic principles. Whatever happened to their protests about cars clogging-up cities and being a danger to pedestrians and cyclists? Self-evidently an EV is no different from a gas guzzler in any of those respects.

      -So, why?  :-//  I can only assume money is changing hands under the table, so to speak.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Neilm on February 07, 2019, 07:31:41 pm
      On EVs, thing is, a car is a car and why should anyone be subsidized or given tax breaks to buy a car?

      I was amazed when some Greens started supporting nuclear power after decades of campaigning against it. At least there is some justification there, in that the Greens (rightly or wrongly) think that CO2 from fossil fuels will destroy the planet.

      In the case of EVs though, Greens promoting car sales would seem to go against all of their basic principles. Whatever happened to their protests about cars clogging-up cities and being a danger to pedestrians and cyclists? Self-evidently an EV is no different from a gas guzzler in any of those respects.

      -So, why?  :-//  I can only assume money is changing hands under the table, so to speak.
      It will reduce the pollution in the city center - better for everyones health.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 07, 2019, 07:43:49 pm
      Just found this comparison on biofuel vs gasoline.  It appears biofuels are over priced and contain less energy meaning you have to buy more to travel the same distance.

      https://youtu.be/CfEcZWwdjoo
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 07, 2019, 07:47:55 pm
      Synthetic fuels are the future. Bio, chemi, or whatever. So we can keep the cars we already have, and the Jumbos that can't fly with batteries.

      Something that has occurred to me today (*): an EV can't stall, that's a plus.
      (*) Guess why.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 07, 2019, 07:55:02 pm
      What are syn fuels?  They have to be far more expensive than the stuff we find for free in the ground.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 07, 2019, 08:04:04 pm
      Maybe. Or maybe not. IDK. Water plus some PVs make a H2 generator. Sounds expensive?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 07, 2019, 08:14:44 pm
      Maybe. Or maybe not. IDK. Water plus some PVs make a H2 generator. Sounds expensive?

      Previous posts we went over all of that.  Electrolysis of water and the use of hydrogen of as a fuel is very expensive and with the technology we have there is no possible way to reduce the cost.  And there was a post from a guy who owns a Toyota hydrogen powered car.  He said it takes him as much time to fuel his car as a Tesla with a supercharger.  He can't wait for the lease to be up so he can buy an EV.

      Not sure is you are aware but the hydrogen for hydrogen powered cars is coming from fossil fuels.  It's far less costly to get hydrogen from fossil fuels than from electrolysis with or without solar panels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Vtile on February 07, 2019, 08:29:50 pm
      https://youtu.be/OhnjMdzGusc?t=177 (https://youtu.be/OhnjMdzGusc?t=177)

      Generally using switched rheostat sections and/or multiple motor windings or voltage stages.  Using multiple tapped parts rather than one big rheostat limits wasted power in the rheostat.

      Some of the stuff from that era was actually rather ingenious.  You should read up on it more.  :)
      It means the excess power is converted to heat in the resistor. That way you can only control motors up to a certain size using such a technology before that resistor burns - not to mention the significant loss of the stored energy in the control alone and the influence of overload on the vehicle leading to direct damage in motor or control (basically no motor protection existed back then). Does an internal combustion engine shred if you try to start with overload?
      I mean Ferdinand Porsche came up with a internal cumbustion engine -> generator -> electrical motor as a way to propell tanks (VK 45.01 P) to circumvent such issues. Submarines and trains used to be driven that way too, until it was more practical to directly control power (SMPS style) or frequency (VFD style). In parallel there used to be diesel-hydraulic of course, all that just to be able to control the huge amount of output power as efficient as possible and keep the overall efficiency of the system high. Nuclear reactors in personal transportation left aside, which used to be the hype of the 60´s science fiction.

      A system consisting of a internal combustion engine, mechanical transmission and clutch in that time was IMHO better scalable and provided more torque to replace horse carriages.

      Without being a historian or trying to start a discussion about it, i guess WWII-logistics and availability to store and deliver energy played a huge role in what was the preferred type of propulsion later on, i guess that shaped the most part of what came to be. A technology adopted by a military also means that there is suddenly
      a) an infrastructure
      b) a huge amount of people trained to be e.g. a mechanic, i.e. experienced with it, able to repair and maintain that technology.
      c) a form of propulsion that does not require a working electrical grid (at least for europe there was a lot bombed away and needed to be rebuilt)
      So such decisions always have ripple effects which enable things to work that wouldn´t if thing had come different.

      Not to mention that internal combustion engines can run on a wide variety of fuels, e.g. gasoline, diesel, alcohol (ethanol), wood gas, coal gas, natural gas, liquid pressurized gas (propane/butane), heavy oil, just to name a few. Don´t understand me wrong, the environmental impact of these varies, an ICE simply doesn´t run the majority of operating time in an ideal operation point, so even "clean" fuels might generate issues when burned under less than ideal conditions (the problem here lies in the system´s control of output power and the user as well), that´s where an electrical propulsion system has huge advantages.

      Sure, but still a HUGE number of people will get caught out.
      And IME huger numbers of people park on the street outside their house so that's not possible.
      Just for info: there are quite some startups (http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/london-street-lamps-electric-car-charging-points-ubitricity-tech-firm-hounslow-council-richmond-a7809126.html) coming up with equipment converting street lamps to charging outlets. So that might change the picture a bit.

      Quote
      And FYI, I"m hugely pro electric cars, and want to get one myself, by the practical engineer in me knows it's not going to go mainstream any time soon, it's not even close.
      It´s sad that the range extender (aka plug-in hybrid) doesn´t find as much traction as it should. It does combine the best of both and can even solve some issues by having the ICE run in practical ideal conditions all the time.

      Just forget the street lamps! Lets play a bit with numbers. This is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3) AC charging: 30 miles (48 km) range per hour (240 V outlet, 32 A).

      Assuming linear dependency, 48_km/h / 32_A =1.5_km/Ah.

      If we assume that the street light is lets say: VIALOX NAV-E SUPER 4Y 400W/240V | High-pressure sodium vapor lamp as the nominal designed bulb in the street lamp we get (assuming power factor 0.9): 400_W / 240_V * 0.9 = 1.85A

      So assuming 10h loading time and street lamp for every two car we would get range of:

      1.5_km/Ah *1.85_A * 10_h * 1/2 = 13.9_km

      ...And this with all the power for loading the car so the street would be dark. (Getting LED bulb can leave maybe 100W for loading a car. Assuming 150W led with 20000lm vs. HP sodium vapor with 55000lm).

      Doesn't seem too good solution in my eyes.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 07, 2019, 09:10:48 pm
      How are EV vehicles doing the United States with the record cold spell?  Wonder how they compare to ICE and hydrogen cars?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 08, 2019, 08:02:58 am
      (synthetic fuels) somebody would already be doing it (instead of digging for oil)... if it were cheaper.
      Not an easy problem because all the energy that has to be put into the fuel ought to come from renewable sources... And the gap to be filled is huge: just look at oil+coal+gas in the graph here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 08, 2019, 09:00:24 am
      Synthetic fuels are the future. Bio, chemi, or whatever. So we can keep the cars we already have, and the Jumbos that can't fly with batteries.

      The biofuels idea is a complete and utter fallacy and that is fact that was worked out 20 years or so ago. There have been ZERO developments in that time to change that.  I would put money if I could there never will be either.

      I have been running my vehicle on Used veg oil for 16 years and made tens of thousands of Litres of Biodiesel.  As an individual effort, collecting USED oil locally and using Oil or sticks as a heat source for processing it works and works well efficiency wise Not taking into account the energy invested in methanol of Koh productions. That I do not know about but the fact USED oil is what the backyarders are using as against new oil for commercial production makes a BIG difference.

      Commercial operations do not want to cook used oil because of the high and variable Tritation which means more Catalyst has to be used which increases costs , lowers production and increases waste by products in the form of glycerin. There is also the water factor. Oil needs to be dry otherwise the reaction produces soap not Biodiesel.  Drying the oil is an extra and costly step for the commercial processor, not so big a deal for the individual Maker.

      The back yarder can test the individual oil resources they have and mix the good with the not so good to get a reasonable tritation number and go from there.
      There are other techniques  such as prewashing the oil with the glyc from the previous batch which allows the left over catalysts still present in the Glyc to react with the next batch of oil but this is again a commercial negative as it requires more time, resources in the form of tanks and Mixers and of course more energy input which can cancel out any cost and efficiency benefit.
      As a result at very best only a small, <10% of used oil was utilised generally in commercial production although I do know of one former producer in Cali that was all used oil.  They like every other producer went broke when subsidies were withdrawn and closed up shop probably 10 + years ago.

      When you clear vast tracts of rain forest to plant oil producing crops which are fertilised with fossil  fuel derivatives and the whole production process is FF powered on an industrial scale, it's a green feel good hypocrisy.
      At very BEST, the energy return is 1:1 which is in fact a negative. If you burn a litre of fossil fuel to produce a litre of bio fuel, you have in fact burned 2L of fuel and produced emissions which would have been the same if you just burnt the one litre of FF in the first place.

      The problem is you are also using resources such as steel to build processing plants and vast tracts of forest particularly in asia HAVE been wiped out to grow these crops destroying natural habitats.

      What was known at LEAST 20 years ago was in order to replace the oil we are getting out the ground now, You'd have to plant an area the size of the oceans which as anyone that went to school that day would know is a lot larger area than the land mass we have.

      Yeah, there has been talk of algae and hybrid crops for 20 years since I got into the whole veg fuels thing and there is still talk and  that's all there is. Nothing even close to anything that would produce a workable amount of fuel oil.

      There is also Ethanol made from corn but again, the amount of ethanol you get if you planted all the ariable land for fuel alone does not meet demand and that means there is nothing left for food. Small problem there.  ::)

      Biofuels is just another of those green ideals that gets gushed out  by the preachers of the faith and parroted by the disciples who never have the smarts to think and question anything of the gospel they are read.

      Seems the biofuels thing is old enough to do another go around as a new and Innovative idea.
      It's a very dead horse that's never going to get up again no matter how hard it's beaten and hyped up.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: TerraHertz on February 08, 2019, 10:18:30 am
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K43XC9J82Q (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K43XC9J82Q)
      Why Tesla batteries SUCK!!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 08, 2019, 10:46:28 am
      Synthetic fuels are the future. Bio, chemi, or whatever. So we can keep the cars we already have, and the Jumbos that can't fly with batteries.

      The biofuels idea is a complete and utter fallacy and that is fact that was worked out 20 years or so ago. There have been ZERO developments in that time to change that.  I would put money if I could there never will be either.

      There is also Ethanol made from corn but again, the amount of ethanol you get if you planted all the ariable land for fuel alone does not meet demand and that means there is nothing left for food. Small problem there.  ::)
      Your information is way out of date. Nowadays they can make ethanol from agricultural waste so no extra land is necessary. The so called 3rd generation bio-fuels. There are several factories in the US doing that on an industrial scale. And yes, there is enough agricultural wast to make a significant amount of bio-fuel. The beauty of it is that by using plant leftovers food gets cheaper because more parts of the plants are used. One of the companies is POET-DSM: poet-dsm.com A few pages back I posted a link to an article from around half 2018 with the industry wide status of these 3rd generation bio-fuels. I expect a larger scale roll-out of these factories in the next few years because it turns out to be a very profitable business with a quick return on investment. POET-DSM alone invested around 300 million dollars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 08, 2019, 11:11:45 am

      Your information is way out of date.

      It's not as out of date as that website. Last entry in their news page was 2017.
      Nothing I can see where they are actually PRODUCING anything either.  Untill they are, I'll take it as just and other R&D Fundraiser to get Hopeful but gullible investors in... Like a million of these other breakthrough potentially world changing ideas that come along every year... and fall flat or their arses.

      There is always enough of this or that to power the world.... Wind, Solar etc.... Right up to the time to implement it and then it's a very different story.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 08, 2019, 12:23:15 pm
      There is always enough of this or that to power the world.... Wind, Solar etc.... Right up to the time to implement it and then it's a very different story.

      Yep. I like to do the maths to try to figure it out. For example: We consume 170e3 TWh/year (*) and we'd want (and we'll need when we run out of FF) it to be 100% renewable.

      Let's imagine we could, with some chemistry magic, manufacture a synthetic fuel with (for simplicity) close to 100% efficiency: for every kWh of electricity we put in we get some amount of fuel that contains 1 kWh of energy. How many PVs we'd need to obtain that much energy?

      If 10 square meters of fully irradiated PVs can generate 1 kWh/h (10% PV efficiency), then:

      170000 TWh/year= 170e12 kWh/year= 170e12/365/24= 19.4e9 kWh/h => we'd need 10*19.4e9 square meters of fully irradiated 24h a day PVs. How much is that?

      sqrt(19.4e10)= 440454 => a square of PVs whose side is 440 km, 24h under the sun (***).

      How much do that many PVs cost? (**) 19.4e9*1000*0.3($/W)= $5.8 million millions. Or 1/3 the debt of the USA (18 trillion $).

      (*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption
      (**) https://duckduckgo.com/?q=solar+panel+price+per+kw+evolution+chart&iax=images&ia=images
      (***) I know, I know, that's not possible. The panels would have to be more than that, and scattered all over the earth.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 08, 2019, 12:39:24 pm
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K43XC9J82Q (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K43XC9J82Q)
      Why Tesla batteries SUCK!!

      That Vid was so spot on!
      Anything Said about The Tesla cult brings out the screaming fan bois that will make any excuse to defend the Religion of Musk.
      I have several times put it to the Tesla cult members, Give me FINANCIAL  reasons why Tesla will be around in 5 years Time"
      I got all sorts of BS like they are innovators and invented the electric car and other non financial crap and the only remotely financially based excuse I have got so far was " they were a new company ( 10 years+ is new??) and all new Companies HAD to loose money for Financial reasons.  "

      YA! The people that defend the company clearly do not have the first basic clue of how a business runs and is structured but make out like they have been trading on the stock market for 20 years.

      But, That is irrelevant. Tesla is perfect, can do no wrong and there is always a defensible excuse for every wrong doing that makes it right according to the fan Bois.
      Tesla is by definition an actual Cult in every way.

      The Hydrogen thing is interesting.
      Company's like Honda are going down this road but I have yet to find how they can make it economically Viable and green at the same time.

      I have tens of KW of electrical power to spare every day in summer and was looking for something to do with it.  I built a fairly large scale Hydrogen generator.  Despite being a Home made Job, the outputs I got were in line with the calculations for an industrial scale energy input/ gas output.  They were basicaly, piss poor.  Add to that the energy input required to compress the gas, the strength and cost of The Cylinders to store it and everything else and it's hard to understand how they can make this add up not only from electrolysis but other ways that use FF as the base input. 

      Having it as a by product is all well and good, scaling things up to meet global consumption or even a significant part of that is something VERY different.

      The guys Comment in the Vid was spot on about flammability.
      I'm not scared of gas like a lot of people are. Played with it a lot.  The Hydrogen scared the shit out of me though.
      I had a well Bled floating storage tank I was putting the gas I produced into.  I was going to light some off straight out the tank and I thought no, better be careful and got a small Lunch bag And Filled that. Took it away, set a light to it and the resulting explosion from about 150Ml of the stuff had my ears ringing for hours and neighbors coming out to see what blew up. Literally.

      In a Stroke of genius I THEN came in and looked up the flammability ratio and kicked myself for being Complacent.
      the slightest bit of oxygen makes the stuff go bang and it is extremely energetic.
      The only thing I have seen like it is Acetylene and oxygen in perfect mix. Put that in a sandwich bag and be a good distance away if you want to keep your head on your shoulders!

      I bled off the hydrogen, put that exercise down as a learning experience and converted the setup to Methane and used the extra solar power to heat the slurry and produce loads more gas than I had done with the Hydrogen.
      The beauty of the methane is it has a very narrow range of flammability in air and a MUCH lower risk of Deflagration.

      For mine, the margin in methane burning and going bang is way too narrow.  You want something to go bang easily in an IC engine but the production and storage factors are not a straightforward issue with methane.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 08, 2019, 02:35:11 pm

      Your information is way out of date.

      It's not as out of date as that website. Last entry in their news page was 2017.
      Nothing I can see where they are actually PRODUCING anything either.  Untill they are, I'll take it as just and other R&D Fundraiser to get Hopeful but gullible investors in... Like a million of these other breakthrough potentially world changing ideas that come along every year... and fall flat or their arses.
      No, 3rd generation bio-fuels are for real. This is the 3rd party article I mentioned:
      http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years (http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years)

      Obviously there is a strong competition in this area because it is a highly lucrative business. This means that you won't find much detailed information on manufacturer's websites. The article from the link states this as well and has based much of it's information about volume on what has been reported to the EPA. The article also states that major problems have been overcome and several industrial scale factories are up&running.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 08, 2019, 03:23:51 pm
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K43XC9J82Q (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K43XC9J82Q)
      Why Tesla batteries SUCK!!

      That Vid was so spot on!
      Anything Said about The Tesla cult brings out the screaming fan bois that will make any excuse to defend the Religion of Musk.
      I have several times put it to the Tesla cult members, Give me FINANCIAL  reasons why Tesla will be around in 5 years Time"
      I got all sorts of BS like they are innovators and invented the electric car and other non financial crap and the only remotely financially based excuse I have got so far was " they were a new company ( 10 years+ is new??) and all new Companies HAD to loose money for Financial reasons.  "

      YA! The people that defend the company clearly do not have the first basic clue of how a business runs and is structured but make out like they have been trading on the stock market for 20 years.

      But, That is irrelevant. Tesla is perfect, can do no wrong and there is always a defensible excuse for every wrong doing that makes it right according to the fan Bois.
      Tesla is by definition an actual Cult in every way.

      The Hydrogen thing is interesting.
      Company's like Honda are going down this road but I have yet to find how they can make it economically Viable and green at the same time.

      I have tens of KW of electrical power to spare every day in summer and was looking for something to do with it.  I built a fairly large scale Hydrogen generator.  Despite being a Home made Job, the outputs I got were in line with the calculations for an industrial scale energy input/ gas output.  They were basicaly, piss poor.  Add to that the energy input required to compress the gas, the strength and cost of The Cylinders to store it and everything else and it's hard to understand how they can make this add up not only from electrolysis but other ways that use FF as the base input. 

      Having it as a by product is all well and good, scaling things up to meet global consumption or even a significant part of that is something VERY different.

      The guys Comment in the Vid was spot on about flammability.
      I'm not scared of gas like a lot of people are. Played with it a lot.  The Hydrogen scared the shit out of me though.
      I had a well Bled floating storage tank I was putting the gas I produced into.  I was going to light some off straight out the tank and I thought no, better be careful and got a small Lunch bag And Filled that. Took it away, set a light to it and the resulting explosion from about 150Ml of the stuff had my ears ringing for hours and neighbors coming out to see what blew up. Literally.

      In a Stroke of genius I THEN came in and looked up the flammability ratio and kicked myself for being Complacent.
      the slightest bit of oxygen makes the stuff go bang and it is extremely energetic.
      The only thing I have seen like it is Acetylene and oxygen in perfect mix. Put that in a sandwich bag and be a good distance away if you want to keep your head on your shoulders!

      I bled off the hydrogen, put that exercise down as a learning experience and converted the setup to Methane and used the extra solar power to heat the slurry and produce loads more gas than I had done with the Hydrogen.
      The beauty of the methane is it has a very narrow range of flammability in air and a MUCH lower risk of Deflagration.

      For mine, the margin in methane burning and going bang is way too narrow.  You want something to go bang easily in an IC engine but the production and storage factors are not a straightforward issue with methane.

      I don't know if they will survive but they have made a profit two quarters in a row now.  Time will tell.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 08, 2019, 03:45:25 pm
      With all the lay-offs and restructuring it seems likely that Tesla is being made ready to be sold. That is more likely to happen with a company which looks good on paper.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 08, 2019, 05:12:40 pm
      With all the lay-offs and restructuring it seems likely that Tesla is being made ready to be sold. That is more likely to happen with a company which looks good on paper.

      Volkswagen! 

      Anyone know much about the life and claims of Nikola Tesla?  The claims Nikola made are not unlike (modern) claims of Elon Musk.
      Tesla claimed he had a Pierce Arrow car fitted with an electric motor and vacuum tubes which tuned into the power of the universe for power.  If history is to repeat itself there should be a fire sometime soon at Tesla Motors research facility which will destroy all Elon's "magical" research.  And one has to wonder if one day Elon just like Nikola will say he's communicating with aliens.  (Nikola was reveled he was communicating with Martians.)

      One has to ask what is Elon Good at?  Disruption.  He did it to the banking/credit card industry with PayPal.  He's disrupted the power industry with solar.  He's tried to a John F. Kennedy with the space program or a President Busch with his trip to Mars.  And he's disrupted the car industry with electric vehicles.  How many car companies will be producing EV cars?  And some have gone so far to say they won't be producing any ICE cars anymore.

      Can we STOP with the silliness of biofuels.  They has some patented method for collecting silage for farmers they are trying to license.  I live in California one of the largest agriculture producers in the world any from what I can tell not one biofuel producer, and we have 30 of them), is using this "great , new, wonderful" biofuel technology which will power the word with biomass.  If it increased biofuel yields as you say why is it not one company is using it?  One has to conclude it does not work as well as you think it does.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 08, 2019, 05:27:48 pm
      With all the lay-offs and restructuring it seems likely that Tesla is being made ready to be sold. That is more likely to happen with a company which looks good on paper.
      Volkswagen! 
      No. Some Chinese company. European and Japanese car manufacturers are banking on bio-fuels and/or hydrogen.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 08, 2019, 05:44:56 pm
      With all the lay-offs and restructuring it seems likely that Tesla is being made ready to be sold. That is more likely to happen with a company which looks good on paper.
      Volkswagen! 
      No. Some Chinese company. European and Japanese car manufacturers are banking on bio-fuels and/or hydrogen.

      Really?  Please provide the names of the Chinese. European and Japanese car manufacturers are who are specifically making cars which run on bio-fuels?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on February 08, 2019, 05:45:26 pm
      Quote
      Give me FINANCIAL  reasons why Tesla will be around in 5 years Time"
      Easy.
      - Near Monopoly in the BEVs markets where the model 3 is sold, in a booming market.
      - 20-30% profitability
      - Over half a million customers waiting in the line.
      - production figures of approx half a million units/Year
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 08, 2019, 05:49:12 pm
      One has to ask what is Elon Good at?  Disruption.  He did it to the banking/credit card industry with PayPal.  He's disrupted the power industry with solar.  He's tried to a John F. Kennedy with the space program or a President Busch with his trip to Mars.  And he's disrupted the car industry with electric vehicles.  How many car companies will be producing EV cars?  And some have gone so far to say they won't be producing any ICE cars anymore.

      1) For umpteenth time, PAYPAL is NOT Elon's child: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal#History and TESLA is NOT Elon's child: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.#History
      2) In what way has he disrupted the power industry with solar? Because Solarcity is totally irrelevant in its market.
      3) Electric cars are a pain in the ass and expensive. Nobody wants them except rich weirdos as a second car, if at all...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 08, 2019, 05:59:27 pm
      With all the lay-offs and restructuring it seems likely that Tesla is being made ready to be sold. That is more likely to happen with a company which looks good on paper.
      Volkswagen! 
      No. Some Chinese company. European and Japanese car manufacturers are banking on bio-fuels and/or hydrogen.

      Really?  Please provide the names of the Chinese. European and Japanese car manufacturers are who are specifically making cars which run on bio-fuels?
      There are several Chinese companies who are potential buyers. The comments about European and Japanese car makers make no sense at all., though. Bio-fuels don't require special cars, and hydrogen cars are still more of a compliance project than a serious market development project.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 08, 2019, 06:03:27 pm
      With all the lay-offs and restructuring it seems likely that Tesla is being made ready to be sold. That is more likely to happen with a company which looks good on paper.
      Volkswagen! 
      No. Some Chinese company. European and Japanese car manufacturers are banking on bio-fuels and/or hydrogen.
      Really?  Please provide the names of the Chinese. European and Japanese car manufacturers are who are specifically making cars which run on bio-fuels?
      BYD comes to mind. The Chinese EV market is huge: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2018/03/30/chinas-electric-vehicle-leaders-who-are-they/#70652e2730b6 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2018/03/30/chinas-electric-vehicle-leaders-who-are-they/#70652e2730b6)
      European and Japanese car manufacturers who's cars can run on bio-fuel?: Simple: all of them. They have been making them that way for decades already. It is so common that it doesn't even get mentioned.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 08, 2019, 06:14:16 pm
      BYD comes to mind.
      There are several Chinese car makers who might reasonably buy Tesla, and probably would if the finances and regulatory conditions are right, but why BYD? Its such a poor fit.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 08, 2019, 06:58:49 pm
      One has to ask what is Elon Good at?  Disruption.  He did it to the banking/credit card industry with PayPal.  He's disrupted the power industry with solar.  He's tried to a John F. Kennedy with the space program or a President Busch with his trip to Mars.  And he's disrupted the car industry with electric vehicles.  How many car companies will be producing EV cars?  And some have gone so far to say they won't be producing any ICE cars anymore.

      1) For umpteenth time, PAYPAL is NOT Elon's child: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal#History and TESLA is NOT Elon's child: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.#History
      2) In what way has he disrupted the power industry with solar? Because Solarcity is totally irrelevant in its market.
      3) Electric cars are a pain in the ass and expensive. Nobody wants them except rich weirdos as a second car, if at all...

      1)  Never said PayPal was Elonn’s child.  I sad he disrupted the banking industry.  Take a look at the Wiki entry about Elon and what it has to say about PayPal.

      2. Solar industry has been around for 60 years or so or about the time Elon was born. It ws at his suggestion that his relatives create Solar City with his help.    Not sure where you are but Solar City marketed solar panels and the financing of solar panels like crazy in parts of the US.  There are so many people where I live who have with solar it has really disrupted the power company’s business model. N They now have too much power at peak solar hours and not enough power during peak usage times.  Look at what Solar City and the other solar companies did to disrupt the power industry in Nevada.

      3) Why do you say electric cars are a pain in the ass and expensive.  Teslas are on the expensive side but there are mid-priced affordable EVs.   You have to admit Elon and Tesla Motors has lead to the disruption of the automobile industry.  Fifteen years ago were any of the big auto manufactures talking about EV?  The apparent success of Tesla has disrupted the automobile and automobile racing industry.  EV cars are i

       
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 08, 2019, 08:58:06 pm
      Lack of range, charge times, variable range depending on weather and fine me an electric car which has a tow-bar so you can haul a trailer or caravan. Hauling a trailer or caraven probably requires a different gear ratio to have enough torque at low speed. Since electric cars have a fixed gear box this won't be easy to fix.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 08, 2019, 09:02:13 pm
      Lack of range, charge times, variable range depending on wheater and name an electric car which has a tow-bar so you can haul a trailer or caravan.
      The Tesla X is rated for towing 2250 kg, which is not surprising when you consider the torque electric motors offer. The Tesla S seems to be rated a bit lower, but I'm not sure which version of the model S the figures I have seen apply to.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 08, 2019, 09:15:18 pm
      Lack of range, charge times, variable range depending on wheater and name an electric car which has a tow-bar so you can haul a trailer or caravan.
      The Tesla X is rated for towing 2250 kg, which is not surprising when you consider the torque electric motors offer. The Tesla S seems to be rated a bit lower, but I'm not sure which version of the model S the figures I have seen apply to.
      The Tesla X is a rare exception (and you have to run it in 'trailer mode'). And 2250kg is with the small rim. With large 22" rims you may pull much less weight.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 08, 2019, 09:24:20 pm
      Why do you say electric cars are a pain in the ass and expensive.

      Because I suffer the one I've got :-)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 08, 2019, 10:03:10 pm
      Lack of range, charge times, variable range depending on wheater and name an electric car which has a tow-bar so you can haul a trailer or caravan.
      The Tesla X is rated for towing 2250 kg, which is not surprising when you consider the torque electric motors offer. The Tesla S seems to be rated a bit lower, but I'm not sure which version of the model S the figures I have seen apply to.
      The Tesla X is a rare exception (and you have to run it in 'trailer mode'). And 2250kg is with the small rim. With large 22" rims you may pull much less weight.
      All cars have conditions attached to their towing capacity. The Tesla X is no different. The Tesla models 3, S, and X all have tow ratings. The model 3 is only rated to tow 418kg, so its more for small trailers than for caravans. The model S and X are rated to tow serious caravans. Considering their enormous torque and high power output I wonder why their tow ratings are so low? The Nissan Leaf is smaller and less powerful, but its rated to tow 1500kg. The Audi E-Tron is rated to tow 1800kg. The Korean electric cars and the Jaguar i-Pace don't have tow ratings. Most of the other electric cars, like the Zoe, are pretty small, and you probably wouldn't want to try towing with them,.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 09, 2019, 01:37:28 am

      These statements are so incorrect I'm not sure if you were serious or trying to be funny and have a lend.



      Quote
      Give me FINANCIAL  reasons why Tesla will be around in 5 years Time"
      Easy.
      - Near Monopoly in the BEVs markets where the model 3 is sold, in a booming market.

      Have you ANY idea how many new EV's are about to rain down on the market in the next 12 Months let alone 3 years?
      Tesla Couldn't make a profit ( except for 3 quarters in 10 years which no where near covers total losses and expenditure) when they had the market to themselves. You really think they are going to be OK when they are going up against the automotive power houses and the likes of the Koreans and Europeans?
      If you do, I'd like to ask how many Tesla shares you own.


      Quote
      - 20-30% profitability
      Supposedly on the Model 3 but over all operating costs apart from the last 2 quarters have put them well in the red.  The last quarter was a scrape though, the quarter before that was a lot of Book Cooking, let see how they go over the next 12 Months. If they can be posting profits I might change my mind But I trust NOTHING Tesla or Elon say without evidence of it being sustainable and not a one off.

      Quote
      - Over half a million customers waiting in the line.

      NEVER had half a million customers waiting.  All the backorders for the cars they are producing, IE, NOT the model 3 $35K model which they have touted but NEVER have made and I suspect never WILL make  ( that mean the thing was yet another LIE and bit of Marketing BS)  Have been filled.  Further more Tesla has been having sales and lowering the prices of their Vehicles.  This is not the behaviour of a car co with more orders than it can supply.

      There are also many pictures and evidence of thousands of cars sitting in holding yards and evidence these holding yards are getting much larger rather than the cars being there for the short term between delivery and customer pick up.

      The only orders they have are for the Model 3 $35K Vaporware Version and the normal lead time productions for custom orders.
      No one ATM thinks they have ANY significant back orders.

      Quote
      - production figures of approx half a million units/Year

      The latest production figures and estimates I can find done last month show production at a bit over 320K units per year. That's a big difference from 500K.
      Those numbers are an absolute drop in the ocean in vehicle manufacturing terms.

      GM sold nearly 300K cars in December 2018 Alone.  Toyota did 220K and Ford did 219 K, also JUST in December.  Tesla did 20K.
      Honda, Nissan Subaru, Kia, Hyuandi and a whole bunch of the Europeans wiped the floor with them. Bear in Mind, this is US ONLY so the numbers world wide would multiply that.  Tesla is selling token numbers outside the US ATM.

       Given the new EV offerings By Hyundai, Kia, Merc, Jag and others that are all poised to release EV's this year or have already, You would be a brave man to bet on tesla at this stage although I tend to believe you are probably a lot more misinformed  than anything else.

      Add to that Tesla has only 3 Models and 2 of them are close to 10 years old,  their offerings are limited, expensive and plagued with problems like Build quality and servicing and repair is an absolute joke thats even being lambasted hourly on the fan Boi Tesla sties.
      The hero worshipping only has so much reach and when the non fairydust believers and and the Fleet market go to buy vehicles,  Tesla is not even going to make the list for these buyers.

      For a company that doesn't even advertise, had scarce showrooms, scarcer servicing and repair centres and a CEO/ Leader taken to be a crackpot at best and an outright liar by most  to go up against the manufacturers that are producing well built Vehicles at half the price or less, have a dealership in every populated area with servicing, advertising and brand loyalty and recognition, makes NO financial sense to back in anyone with a realistic Views eyes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 09, 2019, 02:13:25 am
      European and Japanese car manufacturers who's cars can run on bio-fuel?: Simple: all of them. They have been making them that way for decades already. It is so common that it doesn't even get mentioned.

      Errr, NO!
      Completely false and untrue.

      Very Few Diesels will Run on Biodiesel and nearly all have labels on the fuel filler saying no more than 5-10% Blends.
      Bio plays havoc with the DPF  Regeneration (Diesel version of Cat Converter)  and VOIDS warranty if used.

      Likewise very few Petrol vehicles will run on straight ethanol or even e 85 mixes but to issues with the computers being programmed to allow for it and other concerns with the fuel system itself being rated to supply the increased fuel flow and having components that are Alcohol resistant.  Again, warnings right on the fuel filler cap NOT to use more than 10% blends.

      I know of some flex Fuel ( ethanol) tolerant Vehicles but I know of No Biodiesel fuel compatible although I suspect VW  or merc may have some. 

      There is no way anyone could say all euro and jap cars will run on bio and to say they have been making them that way for decades is just blatantly wrong. The reason it does not get mentioned is because it is simply not true and the statement couldn't even be defensibly spin doctored under scrutiny.

      The City built on the moon doesn't get mentioned for the same reason, it's not true.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 09, 2019, 02:44:48 am


      Fifteen years ago were any of the big auto manufactures talking about EV?  The apparent success of Tesla has disrupted the automobile and automobile racing industry.   
       

      I have seen this argument many times before and I do not understand it ot think it is in any way logical.

      Gm in fact had an electric they were testing and produced limited numbers of before tesla came along. They did not continue it because it was not practical at the time and there was no demand.  WTF would you produce a product that is overly expensive, under performing, impractical, has no worthwhile advantage or improvement over the existing tech and at the end of the day you couldn't sell?

      The fact Tesla produced a sort of mainstream EV before anyone else is not a sign of inspiration or great innovation or anything else and is an extreme gamble that in fact is almost impossible to see paying off from a financial standpoint.
      The other thing is if tesla wanted to build cars, there is no way in hell they could have entered the market without a very special  USP ( Unique Selling Proposition) and electrics are what they Chose.

      Yes, they DID upset the market but so what?  Why would the other makers do a Kodak suicide and bring out a product that would cost billions to develop, potentially distract more profitable sales in established markets and take a decade at least to recoup their investment when there was no actual market for it at the time?
      To do so in corporate Governance and law could in fact have board and CEO held liable and said to not be acting in the interest of the company.

      To imply the auto industry was some how wrong because they didn't bring EV's to the market 15years ago is just greenwashing fanboi
      Flag flying.

      Sure, Tesla has created an interest and market for EV's but it's not to say they will survive the market they created.
      I stand by my prediction they will be gone in 5 years or less.
      Without doubt, the deciples of the Tesla cult will blame Big oil and Gubbermints and the man on the moon and the price of Haddock in bolivia and everything else except the real cause.  They won't mention the Botched Millions of automated production lines, the won't mention the endless broken promises and failures to deliver on time. They won't mention the criminal manipulation of the stock market, the lying, pot smoking, hero name calling, The piss poor build quality, the Months wait for simple parts and repairs and ALL the other things that have already happened which will lead to the companies downfall.

      Saying no one else was doing electric 15 years ago is like trying to infer tesla is doing something wrong now by not bringing a flying car to the market.  the tech and demand simple isn't there so to try and offer one now would be corporate irresponsibility in the extreme and not innovative or wold changing or anything else. Iwould just be plain stupid to do so untill it became a viable proposition.

      We still have some years to wait to see if EV's in fact will be viable for the makers and customers alike.
      I predict a big bun rush of people wanting to get in on the new tech and keep up with the Jones's followed by a period of realization the things aren't all they are cracked up to be and their limitations.

      People will discover roads are still rough, the traffic jams are still there and Holiday driving and long trips are not near as quick and easy as they used to be.  For those wanting to tow a decent boat or Caravan, going to be a LOOOONG time before any EV can do that better than the current crop of vehicles especially the much maligned Diesels.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 09, 2019, 02:49:30 am
      European and Japanese car manufacturers who's cars can run on bio-fuel?: Simple: all of them. They have been making them that way for decades already. It is so common that it doesn't even get mentioned.
      Errr, NO!
      Completely false and untrue.

      Very Few Diesels will Run on Biodiesel and nearly all have labels on the fuel filler saying no more than 5-10% Blends.
      Bio plays havoc with the DPF  Regeneration (Diesel version of Cat Converter)  and VOIDS warranty if used.

      Likewise very few Petrol vehicles will run on straight ethanol or even e 85 mixes but to issues with the computers being programmed to allow for it and other concerns with the fuel system itself being rated to supply the increased fuel flow and having components that are Alcohol resistant.  Again, warnings right on the fuel filler cap NOT to use more than 10% blends.

      I know of some flex Fuel ( ethanol) tolerant Vehicles but I know of No Biodiesel fuel compatible although I suspect VW  or merc may have some. 

      There is no way anyone could say all euro and jap cars will run on bio and to say they have been making them that way for decades is just blatantly wrong. The reason it does not get mentioned is because it is simply not true and the statement couldn't even be defensibly spin doctored under scrutiny.
      Perhaps this is different then where you are but over here you can buy conversion kits to convert & run about any car on 85% ethanol blends. These kits connect between the ECU and the injectors to alter the injection timing.

      Diesel will likely be killed anyway in the near future. There just isn't a way to reduce NOx emissions without making the engine extremely expensive. I used to drive diesels but last time I needed a car I bought one on gas. Diesel engines have become way too fragile and expensive to repair.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 09, 2019, 06:26:56 am
      Perhaps this is different then where you are but over here you can buy conversion kits to convert & run about any car on 85% ethanol blends. These kits connect between the ECU and the injectors to alter the injection timing.

      So in fact the cars can't be run on biofuels without MODIFICATION Which is not how the manufacturers made them at all.
      Additionally, it is only the petrol NOT the diesels that can be run on bio fuels.  Being in Europe you should know how many  uropean Vehicles are Diesels let alone the large range of Japanese offerings.

      Quote
      Diesel will likely be killed anyway in the near future. There just isn't a way to reduce NOx emissions without making the engine extremely expensive. I used to drive diesels but last time I needed a car I bought one on gas. Diesel engines have become way too fragile and expensive to repair.

      That's a cop out and butt covering to what you said which was false and still is within the context you said both from a modified and  diesel engine POV.

      You seem very keen to push the green POV but your information is typically inaccurate and far fetched. You need to clarify statements if you want to be seen as creditable.  Saying all Jap and eurocars can run biofuels and have had the ability for decades and then coming back and admitting that is only with modification ( no doubt voiding warranties) and the significant number of vehicles that can't run biofuels as you indicated don't matter, is not going to do your credibility any good nor make your agenda any more popular with those to whom you are wishing to push it.

      Out of interest, can you tell me your age?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: drussell on February 09, 2019, 11:25:15 am
      Perhaps this is different then where you are but over here you can buy conversion kits to convert & run about any car on 85% ethanol blends. These kits connect between the ECU and the injectors to alter the injection timing.

      So in fact the cars can't be run on biofuels without MODIFICATION Which is not how the manufacturers made them at all.

      So, you're just conveniently ignoring things like those 60+ million Flex-Fuel vehicles that have come from the factory equipped for E85, etc?

      Ok.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 09, 2019, 11:30:14 am
      Perhaps this is different then where you are but over here you can buy conversion kits to convert & run about any car on 85% ethanol blends. These kits connect between the ECU and the injectors to alter the injection timing.
      So in fact the cars can't be run on biofuels without MODIFICATION Which is not how the manufacturers made them at all.
      These kits costs around 120 euro and are installed in 5 minutes. That is hardly a modification. But lets not get into a semantic discussion.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 10, 2019, 06:18:14 am

      So, you're just conveniently ignoring things like those 60+ million Flex-Fuel vehicles that have come from the factory equipped for E85, etc?

      No, I'm addressing the claim made that ALL the vehicles made for decades could run biofuels.

      What is the total amount of cars on the road that can run biofuels?  It's nothing like what was made out and while 60M may sound impressive, we both know reality is nothing like that at all.

      In any case, what is the point of running a fuel that takes MORE energy, resources and in the grand scheme of things creates MORE emissions?

      People seem to treat the world like their home.
      Put out the rubbish and it's gone.  It's not. We live on a big blue marbles. The rubbish never goes away and there is only so many resources we can squander. The solution is to use as little as possible, even if that is fossil fuel that in the grand scheme of things as much as the green washed don't like it, THE most efficient, clean way of doing things right now and will be for  some time despite the green whining.

      EVERY single other thing you do to get away from FF, especially Oil NEEDS oil.
      When someone can grow an alternative crop where no FF or even oil was used, I'll support it whole heatedly but to say growing a biofuel crop is renewable and cleaner and all that crap when it is 100% reliant on oil during it's entire production process is Bullchit and lies spread by the green goobers as usual desperate to push their cult through false pretenses.

      You don't get to window dress something by putting down the product it need to exist and then saying this product is better than the one it relies on.
      That's where the green goobers become a lot of hypocrites and con men.... although thankfully pretty easy to see right through and shoot down in flames.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 10, 2019, 11:01:20 am

      So, you're just conveniently ignoring things like those 60+ million Flex-Fuel vehicles that have come from the factory equipped for E85, etc?

      No, I'm addressing the claim made that ALL the vehicles made for decades could run biofuels.

      What is the total amount of cars on the road that can run biofuels?  It's nothing like what was made out and while 60M may sound impressive, we both know reality is nothing like that at all.
      All common cars running on gas/petrol can can run on ethanol (except for some more obscure / high performance models but you can find that online). The only thing is that you won't have full power and that is where a conversion kit (or a software update) comes in to change (extend) the injection timing. Also the oil change intervals are shorter when you run on blends with large amounts of ethanol. This is why cars are marked as 'flexifuel' so they can have a different manual printed with different maintenance intervals.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fourtytwo42 on February 10, 2019, 11:12:38 am
      In answer to the OP's question....here at least in the UK never!

      This is due to politicians constantly loading the electricity price with IMOP all sorts of stupid subsidies such as sweeteners for Chines companies to build nuclear power plants, huge subsidies for companies building wind turbines, solar farms or biogas plants that ensure that even with disastrous mismanagement they are guaranteed to make a high ROI.

      Meanwhile individuals are heavily subsidized to put solar panels on there roofs with the income inflation proofed for 25 years and now just to add insult to injury we are all to receive smart meters that will do nothing for the consumer except further inflate there bills and you guessed it they are subsidized from the electricity cost! Of course they will further increase the utilities profits as they will not have to read meters anymore.

      Whilst the economics of our electricity supply remains weighed down by subsidies created by idiotic politicians there is no chance of it ever becoming competitive (and therefore mainstream) with fossil fuels for vehicles so they will remain a toy for the idle rich to whom the cost of fuel is invisible.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 10, 2019, 11:13:11 am

      So, you're just conveniently ignoring things like those 60+ million Flex-Fuel vehicles that have come from the factory equipped for E85, etc?

      No, I'm addressing the claim made that ALL the vehicles made for decades could run biofuels.

      What is the total amount of cars on the road that can run biofuels?  It's nothing like what was made out and while 60M may sound impressive, we both know reality is nothing like that at all.
      All common cars running on gas/petrol can can run on ethanol (except for some more obscure / high performance models but you can find that online). The only thing is that you won't have full power and that is where a conversion kit (or a software update) comes in to change (extend) the injection timing. Also the oil change intervals are shorter when you run on blends with large amounts of ethanol. This is why cars are marked as 'flexifuel' so they can have a different manual printed with different maintenance intervals.

      e10 Fuel Problems (It's not clean or green - or a good deal for you.) | Auto Expert John Cadogan


      https://youtu.be/d3o_R1ASCA8

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fourtytwo42 on February 10, 2019, 11:21:04 am

      So, you're just conveniently ignoring things like those 60+ million Flex-Fuel vehicles that have come from the factory equipped for E85, etc?

      No, I'm addressing the claim made that ALL the vehicles made for decades could run biofuels.

      What is the total amount of cars on the road that can run biofuels?  It's nothing like what was made out and while 60M may sound impressive, we both know reality is nothing like that at all.
      All common cars running on gas/petrol can can run on ethanol (except for some more obscure / high performance models but you can find that online). The only thing is that you won't have full power and that is where a conversion kit (or a software update) comes in to change (extend) the injection timing. Also the oil change intervals are shorter when you run on blends with large amounts of ethanol. This is why cars are marked as 'flexifuel' so they can have a different manual printed with different maintenance intervals.

      This stuff is a menace, in my own direct experience it has caused me to have to replace fuel lines and carburetor diaphragms in all my garden tools and that is just using the small percentage presently allowed in normal UK petrol. I run a 14 year old car, not that uncommon and it concerns me greatly. Even for newer vehicles it shortens range as more is used producing more combustion products, and where does it come from ? FARMLAND that should be growing food. Another case of a load of cranks bending the ear of ignorant politicians.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 10, 2019, 11:45:46 am

      Meanwhile individuals are heavily subsidized to put solar panels on there roofs with the income inflation proofed for 25 years and now just to add insult to injury we are all to receive smart meters that will do nothing for the consumer except further inflate there bills and you guessed it they are subsidized from the electricity cost! Of course they will further increase the utilities profits as they will not have to read meters anymore.

      In the United States/California we had smart meters installed 10 years ago.  And aside from the folks wearing tin foil hats saying the radiation from the smart meters were going to kill all of and control our minds and give us cancer, (which hasn't happened so far), smart meters have turned out to be great for consumers.

      First off a non-smartmeter consumers 3 watts of electricity.  Do the math on that one and figure out how much electricity collectively we are saving with mullions of customers.

      Second - Smartmeters allow us to monitor or electricity usage in 15 increments.  We have time of use billing and electricity costs for the rate plan I am on rages from $0.12 to $0.49 kWhr.  That smartmeter along with Time of Use Billing has allowed me to save between $50 and $75 per month on my electricity bill.  Thank you power companies installing smartmeters.

      Third - Smartmeter apps - There are a number of Smartmeter apps which allow me to monitor and control my electricity usage.  This month these apps are allowing me to save another $12-$20 per month and we are still in the winter months.

      Fourth - Smartmeters and solar are a good thing here.  With out smartmeters we could only trade kWhrs with the power company.  Meaning when solar/wind/biofuels produced 1 extra kWhr we would loan it to the power company.  When we needed a kWhr the power company would give us that kWhr back.  BUT NOT ANY MORE. - Thank you smartsmart meters.  Now when I have one extra kWhr I can get to sell it to the power company at fair market value which can be as high as $0.87 kWhr for some rate plans.  (The one I am on I can only sell at $0.48.)  Now here's the great part.....  When I need that kWhr back I have to "BUY" it back at fair market rate.  Meaning I can buy that KwHr back from the power company at $0.12.  That's a 400% return.  YIPPIEEE! I get to screw the power company.

      Fifth - Smartmeters allow me install less solar panels on my home.  Let's say I use 10,000 kWhr per year.  Without a smart meter I would need a solar system which would produce 10,000 kWhrs to offset 100% of my electricity usage.  Let's say 40 panels would produce that 10,000 kWhrs per year.  With a smartmeter, Time of Use Billing I can get 100% of my electricity from solar with only 20 panels or possibly with only 15 panels.  Remember with a smartmeter I can get to "sell" power to the power company at $0.48 and buy it back later in the day/month/year at $0.12.  So for every kWhr I sell to the power company for $0.48 I can buy 4 back at $0.12.  Can you name any other investment where I can get a 400% return on my investment every day of the year? 

      Only possible with smartmeters.

      Politics in your country with electricity may vary.  But all I have to say is thank you politicians for allowing this to happen here in California. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 10, 2019, 12:10:46 pm

      So, you're just conveniently ignoring things like those 60+ million Flex-Fuel vehicles that have come from the factory equipped for E85, etc?

      No, I'm addressing the claim made that ALL the vehicles made for decades could run biofuels.

      What is the total amount of cars on the road that can run biofuels?  It's nothing like what was made out and while 60M may sound impressive, we both know reality is nothing like that at all.
      All common cars running on gas/petrol can can run on ethanol (except for some more obscure / high performance models but you can find that online). The only thing is that you won't have full power and that is where a conversion kit (or a software update) comes in to change (extend) the injection timing. Also the oil change intervals are shorter when you run on blends with large amounts of ethanol. This is why cars are marked as 'flexifuel' so they can have a different manual printed with different maintenance intervals.

      This stuff is a menace, in my own direct experience it has caused me to have to replace fuel lines and carburetor diaphragms in all my garden tools and that is just using the small percentage presently allowed in normal UK petrol. I run a 14 year old car, not that uncommon and it concerns me greatly. Even for newer vehicles it shortens range as more is used producing more combustion products, and where does it come from ? FARMLAND that should be growing food. Another case of a load of cranks bending the ear of ignorant politicians.

      All of this stuff comes down to mater of physics and chemistry.  Using bio-fuels and hydrogen are like modern day perpetual motion machines.  Yes they might appear to "work" but there's a energy and pollution costs which ultimately makes them even worse than fossil fuels.

      The folks who think Ethanol is the answer should watch this video.  Ford cars in 1908 could run on Ethanol.
      Who want's to buy biofuel when you get a 25% reduction in mileage per tankful?

      https://youtu.be/vcNFOcD4r2I

      https://youtu.be/ATGSBi1kBl0



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 10, 2019, 12:19:59 pm
      This stuff is a menace, in my own direct experience it has caused me to have to replace fuel lines and carburetor diaphragms in all my garden tools and that is just using the small percentage presently allowed in normal UK petrol. I run a 14 year old car, not that uncommon and it concerns me greatly.
      Your car is fine. In France E10 has been available for decades so cars need to be able to deal with ethanol in the fuel. There are several websites where you can check compatibility. Actually ethanol helps to keep the inside of your engine clean. I've got over 100.000 km of running on E10 and never noticed any degradation on any car. Again: E10 has been on the market for decades in some countries.

      For garden tools (and generators) you need to buy an additive which keeps the fuel from aging. This is pretty common knowledge.
       
      @Doug: no, you won't get a 25% reduction in milage. More like 10% to 15%. The nice thing about ethanol is that it is a high octane fuel so your engine will run more efficient. This higher efficiency counteracts the lower energy content of ethanol.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 10, 2019, 12:22:06 pm
      This stuff is a menace, in my own direct experience it has caused me to have to replace fuel lines and carburetor diaphragms in all my garden tools and that is just using the small percentage presently allowed in normal UK petrol. I run a 14 year old car, not that uncommon and it concerns me greatly.
      Your car is fine. In France E10 has been available for decades so cars need to be able to deal with ethanol in the fuel. There are several websites where you can check compatibility. Actually ethanol helps to keep the inside of your engine clean. I've got over 100.000 km of running on E10 and never noticed any degradation on any car. Again: E10 has been on the market for decades in some countries.

      For garden tools (and generators) you need to buy an additive which keeps the fuel from aging. This is pretty common knowledge.

      Why would you buy a fuel that gives you a 25% reduction in mileage?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 10, 2019, 12:28:32 pm
      This stuff is a menace, in my own direct experience it has caused me to have to replace fuel lines and carburetor diaphragms in all my garden tools and that is just using the small percentage presently allowed in normal UK petrol. I run a 14 year old car, not that uncommon and it concerns me greatly.
      Your car is fine. In France E10 has been available for decades so cars need to be able to deal with ethanol in the fuel. There are several websites where you can check compatibility. Actually ethanol helps to keep the inside of your engine clean. I've got over 100.000 km of running on E10 and never noticed any degradation on any car. Again: E10 has been on the market for decades in some countries.

      For garden tools (and generators) you need to buy an additive which keeps the fuel from aging. This is pretty common knowledge.

      Why would you buy a fuel that gives you a 25% reduction in mileage?
      For a 30% lower price?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 10, 2019, 12:37:29 pm
      This stuff is a menace, in my own direct experience it has caused me to have to replace fuel lines and carburetor diaphragms in all my garden tools and that is just using the small percentage presently allowed in normal UK petrol. I run a 14 year old car, not that uncommon and it concerns me greatly.
      Your car is fine. In France E10 has been available for decades so cars need to be able to deal with ethanol in the fuel. There are several websites where you can check compatibility. Actually ethanol helps to keep the inside of your engine clean. I've got over 100.000 km of running on E10 and never noticed any degradation on any car. Again: E10 has been on the market for decades in some countries.

      For garden tools (and generators) you need to buy an additive which keeps the fuel from aging. This is pretty common knowledge.

      Why would you buy a fuel that gives you a 25% reduction in mileage?
      For a 30% lower price?

      So for you it's all about money and not the environment.  Fair enough.

      But auto experts who have independently tested E10 have all found E10 fuel isn't cheaper or greener.  (Except for the ones who have been paid to say otherwise.)





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 10, 2019, 12:43:51 pm
      There is more FUD about E10 and ethanol on internet than on any other subject. For many people a car is their most expensive and holy possession. In Dutch a car is often referred to as a 'holy cow'. Seperating fact from fiction is hard when it comes to spiritual things.  :popcorn:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 10, 2019, 12:52:18 pm
      There is more FUD about E10 and ethanol on internet than on any other subject. For many people a car is their most expensive and holy possession. In Dutch a car is often referred to as a 'holy cow'. Seperation fact from fiction is hard when it comes to spiritual stuff.  :popcorn:

      Cars cost more than houses?  Incredible.

      I think there's more FUD on the Internet about perpetual motion machines.  Yes, there is a lot of FUD about E10 which is why one needs to look for independent research.  The reason there's so much FUD is to get cause FUD and cause confusion and sucker people into buying it.

      Have you found any independent research which has found E10 to be better?  I sure haven't.  Trusted sources say it's bad for the pocket book, bad for older cars, bad for the environment and good for politicians.

       

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 10, 2019, 12:54:32 pm
      This stuff is a menace, in my own direct experience it has caused me to have to replace fuel lines and carburetor diaphragms in all my garden tools and that is just using the small percentage presently allowed in normal UK petrol. I run a 14 year old car, not that uncommon and it concerns me greatly.
      Your car is fine. In France E10 has been available for decades so cars need to be able to deal with ethanol in the fuel. There are several websites where you can check compatibility. Actually ethanol helps to keep the inside of your engine clean. I've got over 100.000 km of running on E10 and never noticed any degradation on any car. Again: E10 has been on the market for decades in some countries.

      For garden tools (and generators) you need to buy an additive which keeps the fuel from aging. This is pretty common knowledge.

      Why would you buy a fuel that gives you a 25% reduction in mileage?
      For a 30% lower price?

      So for you it's all about money and not the environment.  Fair enough.

      But auto experts who have independently tested E10 have all found E10 fuel isn't cheaper or greener.  (Except for the ones who have been paid to say otherwise.)
      Why do you equate a comment with a viewpoint? Have you no grasp of how discussion works? You asked why a low performing fuel would be attractive, and I responded with the obvious point that its overall cost effectiveness that counts for most purposes.

      E10 is currently a feel good fuel. Its important that a more realistic view prevails, but its hard to see how that can be achieved.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 10, 2019, 12:59:13 pm
      This stuff is a menace, in my own direct experience it has caused me to have to replace fuel lines and carburetor diaphragms in all my garden tools and that is just using the small percentage presently allowed in normal UK petrol. I run a 14 year old car, not that uncommon and it concerns me greatly.
      Your car is fine. In France E10 has been available for decades so cars need to be able to deal with ethanol in the fuel. There are several websites where you can check compatibility. Actually ethanol helps to keep the inside of your engine clean. I've got over 100.000 km of running on E10 and never noticed any degradation on any car. Again: E10 has been on the market for decades in some countries.

      For garden tools (and generators) you need to buy an additive which keeps the fuel from aging. This is pretty common knowledge.

      Why would you buy a fuel that gives you a 25% reduction in mileage?
      For a 30% lower price?

      So for you it's all about money and not the environment.  Fair enough.

      But auto experts who have independently tested E10 have all found E10 fuel isn't cheaper or greener.  (Except for the ones who have been paid to say otherwise.)
      Why do you equate a comment with a viewpoint? Have you no grasp of how discussion works? You asked why a low performing fuel would be attractive, and I responded with the obvious point that its overall cost effectiveness that counts for most purposes.

      E10 is currently a feel good fuel. Its important that a more realistic view prevails, but its hard to see how that can be achieved.

      How is E10 a "feel good" fuel?  It's bad for the environment, good for politicians and results in a 25% reduction in mileage.  Means you are waiting time and gas looking for a fueling station a lot more often.  You might as well buy an EV car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 10, 2019, 01:21:02 pm
      E10 is currently a feel good fuel. Its important that a more realistic view prevails, but its hard to see how that can be achieved.
      How is E10 a "feel good" fuel?  It's bad for the environment, good for politicians and results in a 25% reduction in mileage.  Means you are waiting time and gas looking for a fueling station a lot more often.  You might as well buy an EV car.
      It feels good to a poorly informed public. Its branded as a green product, and that's all you need to make lots of people feel good about using it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 10, 2019, 01:28:14 pm
      E10 is currently a feel good fuel. Its important that a more realistic view prevails, but its hard to see how that can be achieved.
      How is E10 a "feel good" fuel?  It's bad for the environment, good for politicians and results in a 25% reduction in mileage.  Means you are waiting time and gas looking for a fueling station a lot more often.  You might as well buy an EV car.
      It feels good to a poorly informed public. Its branded as a green product, and that's all you need to make lots of people feel good about using it.

      Got it.  Kind of like religion?  Don't pay any attention to the evil science which get at the truth and blindly believe the companies propaganda and the politicians on the pulpits.  And while we are at it let's call anyone who is not a true believer a heretic and burn them publicly on the Internet.   



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 10, 2019, 02:40:20 pm

      I know I asked before but exactly how old are you?
      My reason for asking is that I have wasted time arguing with 15 yo's before that thought they knew everything  when the complete an opposite was true and spouted endless garbage that just wasn't correct in any way.   Not wishing to go down that road again but anyway....


      Your car is fine. In France E10 has been available for decades so cars need to be able to deal with ethanol in the fuel.

      E10 has been available in Oz for decades as well and precisely as said it IS a menace and that's a far more polite word than I'd use for the crap.

      I work part time in a Car wrecking yard.  We can look at a number of things on an engine and walk off shaking our heads saying " yeah, it's been run on that cheap shit all right. "  It screws with Cat convertors, it kills O2 sensors.  Car comes in with either of those problems and you know the owner has been running E10 and the question always confirms it.  Not all bad, Bought my daughter a 3 Yo car with 40K Km on it a few years ago for next to nothing.  Check engine light was on.
      mechanics had changed plugs and frigged around with the 02 sensors which meant the cat convertor was shot.  OVER $5000 here for a new one. Conveniently had 3 cars in the yard  same model with good cats so put one on and runs like a watch.  Of course she knows not to put Ecrap near it and hasn't had a problem in the 3 years she has had it.

      Even on 5 yo cars, there are problems with sensors and fuel pumps and other things but of course you deal with this hands on but the green washed deny it and claim it must be a local problem or something.  IT's Not! know the world over.

      I wouldn't have E10 in anything I own.
      Years ago Figured out how much less mileage a vehicle got  using it. Yes, it's a few cents cheaper here, only a few not 10 or 20c per litre but on a good day maybe 5C/L cheaper but if you work out the reduction in range, it is in fact a heap more EXPENSIVE. In actual fact the cheapest fuel is the most expensive 98 or what ever because you go further and although you pay more, you pay more less often and over all long term pay less. been heaps of tests done on this and they all come to the same conclusion.

      The other thing as mentioned is it affect fuel lines, diaphragms, carbs etc. even still on new gear supposedly rated for it.
      Go to a small engine/ garden equipment shop and ask them about Ecrap and see what they say.

      The other thing with this garbage is the fact it is extremely hygroscopic. 
      It sucks water out the air better than a dehumidifier. Unfortunately all that water ends up in your tank or carb and plays havoc from there.  On the newer gear with the greenwashed idea of non adjustable carbs, it also leans the mixture making for hard starting and poor running especially when the engine gets a bit worn.

      It's not like I am unfamiliar with alcohol based fuels. I ran a race bike on Methanol so I know what it is like. You would always drain the tank and carb and replaced fuel line and carb parts often. You changed the oil every run because even if the thing is running lean, it still get in the oil and pulls water in too.
      You can run much higher compression, you can run real rich mixtures to keep detonation down and pistons from melting and get great power out of a race engine,  BUT..... those are all things that you do not need or want in a road car.  You don't want to drain the tank and change the oil every time the thing is going to be parked for more than a few days. 

      The only reason E10 is not a bigger problem with condensation in cars is they have sealed fuel systems so the air can get in but not out so therefor the amount of air is limited.

      Quote
      Actually ethanol helps to keep the inside of your engine clean.

      You read this right, straight off the flag waving websites. Must have because once again, completely wrong.
       Tell me though, how many engines have you personally, yourself torn down that have been running E10 and seen the combustion chambers or any other part of the engine internals and what did they look like?

      The ones I have torn down have carbon in them like any other but still have the tell tale white exhaust valves from the Ecrap meaning they were running too hot even though it may be a car less than 10 Yo and supposedly able to run the ethacrap. Other sensors can be affected as well because the E rubbish gets into the oil and through the breathers and deterioates sensor performance and function.

      Not saying every car that runs a tank full of the stuff will fall over but there is NO denying those vehicles run long term on the stuff DO have more predictable problems than those run on the non contaminated fuels.


       
      Quote
      I've got over 100.000 km of running on E10 and never noticed any degradation on any car.

      Ahh huh.  But you wouldn't notice any degradation in that time especially if parts and components were logically replaced so that is a meaningless and diversionary statement. I notice you say "any car" so the 100K km has not been on one car so we don't know if you got one and it already had problems which you wouldn't be aware of or if you got rid of the thing before  problems became apparent.
      With respect, it is very clear to me that vehicle mechanics is not something you are particularly familiar with to know what would cause a problem and in honesty, I would suggest that even if you were told of a problem caused by ethanol contaminated fuel, you wouldn't admit it here and probably not even to yourself if it went against your green proclivities.


      Quote
      Again: E10 has been on the market for decades in some countries.

      Yes. And it's been known to cause problems Right off the bat as long as it has been available those decades. MOST equipment you buy here now specifically has labels and stickers on it NOT to run it on  ethanol laced fuels including several bits of garden gear I bought new recently. I have also seen new mowers, generators and small engines on industrial equipment with the same warnings.  Vehicles have warnings NOT to use Biodiesel as well.

      E10- E whatever is a very poor fuel. No ifs or butts or spin doctoring about it.  It's not about the vehicles, it's about the inherent properties of the fuel itself.

      I don't spose you know ethanol was extensively used as fuel during WWII.  It was made especially for aircraft fuel amoung other things. There were problems with it then but in wartime they put up with a lot.  Why do you suppose when they were geard up to make the suff in such Qty they didn't keep going with it if it was cheaper, better fuel that burnt cleaner and had better performance?

      Clearly, because it was not a superior fuel and was problematic and Petro fuel was in fact a far better alternative.  Simple as that.

      Quote
      For garden tools (and generators) you need to buy an additive which keeps the fuel from aging. This is pretty common knowledge.

      I "Need to buy an additive"? Why?Isn't it a btter fuel a you told us?  Or maybe I need additives because the stuff is shit that will cause problems without it?  Well that is in fact the case isn't it.
      I'm curious though, if it's common knowledge you need additives, why aren't they put in at the refinery?

      Instead of Buying additives ( which are universally Naptha BTW)  I just buy quality, no hassel fuels that DO NOT  have ethanol in them.  Additives are expensive and require more stuffing round to make the fuel decent. I have no interests in paying more after I bought supposedly cheaper fuel which makes it way more expensive.

      Like anything else, I avoid known junk and rubbish and pay a little more for what I know is quality and less trouble and am happy.
       
      Quote
      @Doug: no, you won't get a 25% reduction in milage. More like 10% to 15%.

      No, I worked out years ago the Wifes car got about 21% poorer economy using Ecrap than using the regular non contaminated fuel.  But she had already worked out she was getting about  80 odd Km less per tank on the Ecrap.

      Quote
      The nice thing about ethanol is that it is a high octane fuel so your engine will run more efficient.

      Errr, no it won't.  Wrong again.
      Modern engines are all relatively low compression so unless you have a sports model which inevitably FORBID you to run Ecrap, the higher octane is wasted.
      Do you even fully understand what octane actually is? Clearly not.

       It is resistance to compression ignition basically, How hard you can squeeze it and how hot you can make a mixture of it before it goes bang on it's own.
      It is NOT  a measure of energy content.  You do not need much octane in an engine that's running  8-10:1 Compression with knock sensors that feed a signal back to the computer than can retard timing anyway.

      Octane and efficiency is like trying to relate  Engine temperature and windscreen wiper speed.  They are not related in any way shape or form.


      Quote
      This higher efficiency counteracts the lower energy content of ethanol.

      Mate, do you make this stuff up as you go or do you just parrot garbage you read on some forums or websites?

      There is no higher efficiency to start with and if there was, it would be in the engine design NOT the fuel.
      The deciding factor you are oblivious to in the fuel is not octane, it is calorific value.
      That is the amount of energy in a given amount of a fuel either by weight as is the proper measurement or by volume.

      While ethanol does have a higher octane, it has a LOWER calorific value . This in a normal every day vehicle equates to a given amount of fuel having less total energy and therefore less ability to do work.  That is why you get less mileage.... as you admitted to then contradicted yourself.
      It is exactly the difference between a chord of hardwood and a chord of softwood.  Same volume, one burns a lot longer and hotter than the other and there for you can heat, cook and boil more with the hard wood than the same volume of softwood. 

       If the fuel was more "efficient" as you put it, you would get BETTER not worse economy.  You admit that economy is poorer than  with straight fuel and this might be the most accurate and truthful  thing I have seen you suggest so far.
      This is why the non contaminated fuels, some of which have LOWER octane ratings than Ethacrap get better mileage and when the most expensive fuels which have the most energy have the best economy.

      Biodiesel is Exactly the same compared to Diesel. Less energy, about 10-12% depending on the actual feedstock of the oil the Bio was transesterfied  from and a bit to do with the actual process used.  This on a diesel., particularly a non turbo engine that can frequently be driven flat out, can be very noticeable.
      That in addition to a much slower speed of combustion which equates to earlier timing needed, can make bio and veg give a Diesel noticeably less Pep and economy.

      On My truck I have the Pump wound up and If I need to go hard as in towing or want passing power on the highway, I add 5% real Petrol which compensates for the slower combustion speed of the oil and brings the timing back in line with that needed for regular Diesel.

      You really ought to fact check things before posting as deliberate or not, your many flawed statements are not winning anyone over to your side of the discussion or greening them over.

      Again, what is your age please?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 10, 2019, 02:49:07 pm

      I know I asked before but exactly how old are you?
      My reason for asking is that I have wasted time arguing with 15 yo's before that thought they knew everything  when the complete an opposite was true and spouted endless garbage that just wasn't correct in any way.   Not wishing to go down that road again but anyway....
      By your reasoning you must be 14. Check your facts because a lot of what you write is pretty much outdated. If E10 was that bad it would have been banned. You are just judging by a few data points which probably hint towards poor fuel quality from no-brand gas stations. Yes, that is crap which I don't put in my car with or without ethanol. I always fill up with A-brand fuel (which usually can be found for the same price as the no-name brands).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fourtytwo42 on February 10, 2019, 02:54:04 pm

      Meanwhile individuals are heavily subsidized to put solar panels on there roofs with the income inflation proofed for 25 years and now just to add insult to injury we are all to receive smart meters that will do nothing for the consumer except further inflate there bills and you guessed it they are subsidized from the electricity cost! Of course they will further increase the utilities profits as they will not have to read meters anymore.

      In the United States/California we had smart meters installed 10 years ago.  And aside from the folks wearing tin foil hats saying the radiation from the smart meters were going to kill all of and control our minds and give us cancer, (which hasn't happened so far), smart meters have turned out to be great for consumers.

      First off a non-smartmeter consumers 3 watts of electricity.  Do the math on that one and figure out how much electricity collectively we are saving with mullions of customers.

      Second - Smartmeters allow us to monitor or electricity usage in 15 increments.  We have time of use billing and electricity costs for the rate plan I am on rages from $0.12 to $0.49 kWhr.  That smartmeter along with Time of Use Billing has allowed me to save between $50 and $75 per month on my electricity bill.  Thank you power companies installing smartmeters.

      Third - Smartmeter apps - There are a number of Smartmeter apps which allow me to monitor and control my electricity usage.  This month these apps are allowing me to save another $12-$20 per month and we are still in the winter months.

      Fourth - Smartmeters and solar are a good thing here.  With out smartmeters we could only trade kWhrs with the power company.  Meaning when solar/wind/biofuels produced 1 extra kWhr we would loan it to the power company.  When we needed a kWhr the power company would give us that kWhr back.  BUT NOT ANY MORE. - Thank you smartsmart meters.  Now when I have one extra kWhr I can get to sell it to the power company at fair market value which can be as high as $0.87 kWhr for some rate plans.  (The one I am on I can only sell at $0.48.)  Now here's the great part.....  When I need that kWhr back I have to "BUY" it back at fair market rate.  Meaning I can buy that KwHr back from the power company at $0.12.  That's a 400% return.  YIPPIEEE! I get to screw the power company.

      Fifth - Smartmeters allow me install less solar panels on my home.  Let's say I use 10,000 kWhr per year.  Without a smart meter I would need a solar system which would produce 10,000 kWhrs to offset 100% of my electricity usage.  Let's say 40 panels would produce that 10,000 kWhrs per year.  With a smartmeter, Time of Use Billing I can get 100% of my electricity from solar with only 20 panels or possibly with only 15 panels.  Remember with a smartmeter I can get to "sell" power to the power company at $0.48 and buy it back later in the day/month/year at $0.12.  So for every kWhr I sell to the power company for $0.48 I can buy 4 back at $0.12.  Can you name any other investment where I can get a 400% return on my investment every day of the year? 

      Only possible with smartmeters.

      Politics in your country with electricity may vary.  But all I have to say is thank you politicians for allowing this to happen here in California.

      I have no objection to people installing gadgets in there house to further amuse themselves with while waiting for the supermarket checkout or indeed as a talking point at dinner parties BUT I do object to such gadgets being state sponsored meaning the rest of us have to pay for your pleasure! Increased energy costs reduces competitiveness and quality of life but subsidies in this country at least are still being thrown around like confetti
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 10, 2019, 02:58:36 pm
      It feels good to a poorly informed public. Its branded as a green product, and that's all you need to make lots of people feel good about using it.

      Like most things that appeal to the greenwashed.

      Call it green or environmentally friendly and they will buy it thinking they are saving the world and doing their Bit.
      Like recycling paper to save trees.  Forget the trees are plantation grown

      Like the people that buy hybrids that use more resources and energy in their production and have higher emissions from the materials that go into them than a regular vehicle and thin think they are doing something better than the guy who drives a regular IC vehicle

      Another popular one right now is home storage batteries.  I put one on the house and am a hero saving the world. forget the fact they have materials that are highly toxic in their mining and refinement, forget they are completely un economical and forget most of they can't be recycled.

      It's the flavour of the month at trendy cocktail parties and save the world protest so that's all that matters.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 10, 2019, 03:37:40 pm
      By your reasoning you must be 14.

      Yeah, If you are not a kid you have the mentality of one with a rebuttal like that.

       
      Quote
      Check your facts because a lot of what you write is pretty much outdated.

      You claimed that before and then i showed that in fact YOUR information was demonstrably wrong. As well as completely green-washed.

      Quote
      If E10 was that bad it would have been banned.

      What, by the same people who brought it in in the first place despite being shown it was a failure on other places and warned of the problems before it was FORCED on the public?
      The same green washed appeasers whom have caused power shortages here by bllowing up coal power stations without having the green RE replacement generation in place and had to go out and buy up $60M worth of DIESEL fire generators?

      These are the people that would ban it?
      Yeah right!

       
      Quote
      You are just judging by a few data points which probably hint towards poor fuel quality from no-brand gas stations.


      There we go! The predictable green denial. Never torn an engine down in your life have you but you claim to know better than those that have done dozens of them and seen them first hand and confirmed their findings with the owners of the vehicles.
      I handed you that one on a plate. I purposefully made an incorrect point in what I said that anyone with some mechanical knowledge would pick up easily and you missed it completely. You are trying to debate something of which you have zero knowledge but just an agenda you want to push.

      Of course. The predictable green washed excuses and denial. As reliable as sunrise.  Funny you claim my " data points" are in effect biased but refute none of them specifically.  Why not? Do the websites you parrot not give you real and actual knowledge and understanding of what you are talking about to actually discuss the things I said with any technical knowledge what so ever?
      That would be about it wouldn't it?

      No name gas stations?
      We don't have those here and ALL the fuel sold is either Mobil, Caltex, shell or BP. Hardly no name brands and it is not altered from their refineries. It is sold by a handful of independent stations whom are all known brands in themselves but primarily Caltex and Mobil supply fuel to these stations. Very frequently can be sen delivering it in their trucks and the pumps all have writing specifying the source of the fuel as required by law here.
      Again your claim is ignorant and completely flawed. Your excuse of poor fuel is basically impossible here.  Sorry bout that.

      Quote
      Yes, that is crap which I don't put in my car with or without ethanol. I always fill up with A-brand fuel (which usually can be found for the same price as the no-name brands).

      A brand fuel ( whatever that is) is hardly the same as A quality fuel.... which ethanol is not and never will be.

      If ethanol was top quality fuel, it would not need additives and it would be recommended for high performance vehicles instead of warned against and Voiding warranties.
      That is fact and logic you can't rationally argue with no matter how inconvenient and undermining to the position you want to champion and shows your position to  yet again, for the umpteenth time, be flawed and without real world factual basis in logic or practice.

      If you want to keep playing this game, could you at least try to lift it a bit?
      The ease with which your baseless claims can be proven just wrong is getting boring. 
      I like to have to think and learn something as I go in these discussions but what you say is so pathetic in it's inaccuracy it's a waste of time even trying to point out how flawed it is.

      Please do some research on your future claims and rebuttals and try to incorporate SOME facts.  As a starting point. If you think my information is out of date, try providing links that prove that and can enlighten myself and others in the process so we can learn.

      Until you can do that you are wasting your time and undermining your credibility trying to get anyone to see things your way.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 10, 2019, 05:43:09 pm
      george80 and others nice job of using science, logic and critical thinking skills to put on the flaws in that guy’s beliefs and reality. He’s been asked many time to Ofer credaible evidencee and fails to do so.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 10, 2019, 07:59:57 pm
      Not true, 99% of nctnico's posts are spot on. He believes in (some sort of "recycled biomass") biofuels, so what?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 10, 2019, 09:06:43 pm
      Not true, 99% of nctnico's posts are spot on. He believes in (some sort of "recycled biomass") biofuels, so what?

      Are there 2 posters here with the same name?
      Are you reading what the guy I have been addressing has been saying? You believe and agree with it?
      The posts I am reading are clearly from someone whom has no clue about what they are saying but saying it anyway to push the cult religion they are indoctrinated to. And they say flawed and untrue things repeatedly.

      The so what is why try to convince people of a load of bullchit?  Recycled biomass is NOT a viable solution to energy problems. Trying to convince people of a lie is both pointless and counter productive.  Unless the man has some vested financial interest like trying to peddle some  product or service, telling people the world is going to be saved by biofuel makes no rational or logical sense.

      Would you say "So what" if I came on here trying to convince people I could get 500 Mpg out of a fully laden semi that went 100MPH up a mountain side because it's just as big a lie and pointless as trying to convince people all the transport energy needs can be solved with biofuels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on February 10, 2019, 09:22:25 pm
      Like recycling paper to save trees.  Forget the trees are plantation grown
      If it takes less resources to recycle paper than to make new paper, that's a win.
      Quote
      Like the people that buy hybrids that use more resources and energy in their production and have higher emissions from the materials that go into them than a regular vehicle and thin think they are doing something better than the guy who drives a regular IC vehicle
      That has been disproven, as in the extra energy used at manufacture breaks even fairly early on. That said, there are conventional technology cars that can do 35MPG highway or better.
      Quote
      Another popular one right now is home storage batteries.  I put one on the house and am a hero saving the world. forget the fact they have materials that are highly toxic in their mining and refinement, forget they are completely un economical and forget most of they can't be recycled.
      Not everyone lives where the grid is cheap and reliable. For some, it's prohibitively expensive. That said, I do want to see more thermal storage as a cheaper and longer lasting alternative to batteries for HVAC and hot water. I would also like to see home power batteries implemented as 250Wh or so modules that can be taken out to power portable electronics and tools.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on February 10, 2019, 09:45:49 pm
      How on earth has a discussion on electric cars being mainstream (which they are) fall into a thread where the idiot Scotty Kilmer's videos are posted.

      Myth, an electric car is harsher on the environment (build + operation) than an ICE vehicle.  Initially yes, long term, not even close.





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 10, 2019, 10:42:43 pm
      Not true, 99% of nctnico's posts are spot on. He believes in (some sort of "recycled biomass") biofuels, so what?
      Are there 2 posters here with the same name?
      Are you reading what the guy I have been addressing has been saying? You believe and agree with it?
      The posts I am reading are clearly from someone whom has no clue about what they are saying but saying it anyway to push the cult religion they are indoctrinated to. And they say flawed and untrue things repeatedly.

      The so what is why try to convince people of a load of bullchit?  Recycled biomass is NOT a viable solution to energy problems. Trying to convince people of a lie is both pointless and counter productive.  Unless the man has some vested financial interest like trying to peddle some  product or service, telling people the world is going to be saved by biofuel makes no rational or logical sense.
      You are clearly stuck in your own imagination. Let's look at what I posted earlier on:

      Quote
      Nowadays they can make ethanol from agricultural waste so no extra land is necessary. The so called 3rd generation bio-fuels. There are several factories in the US doing that on an industrial scale. And yes, there is enough agricultural wast to make a significant amount of bio-fuel. The beauty of it is that by using plant leftovers food gets cheaper because more parts of the plants are used. One of the companies is POET-DSM: poet-dsm.com A few pages back I posted a link to an article from around half 2018 with the industry wide status of these 3rd generation bio-fuels. I expect a larger scale roll-out of these factories in the next few years because it turns out to be a very profitable business with a quick return on investment. POET-DSM alone invested around 300 million dollars.

      http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years (http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years)
      And here is another interesting page from the US government about the start of POET-DSM's Liberty project: https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty) But there are other similar projects as well. The reason I primarily follow POET-DSM is because the DSM part is a multi-billion euro chemical company from the Netherlands which in the past dealt with exploitation of the coal mines. They have a heritage in supplying energy as well and they are not some kind of garden shed operation.

      First of all I backed my claims up with third party information. Secondly I never claimed that all fuel can be replaced by bio-fuel. I wrote 'a significant amount'. For sure that amount can increase when people start to drive more efficient cars (well in the >20km/liter ball park). You can buy cars with these efficiencies today and they aren't the tiny low fuel consumption clunkers from the 80's but you'd probably disagree with that as well.

      So far you came up with taking a few random engines apart and decided ethanol is crap (probably over a beer). A scientific report would make your claims way more credible. You seem like a typical ranter. Everything new is bad and everything in the old days was so good. Well, when I was young we had a black & white TV with 2 channels and no phone. I happen to like new technology and the future of cars is what interests me so I follow a lot of the developments in that area. Diesel looked very good for a while because of the better efficiency. Nowadays it turns out you can't really get a diesel engine to work cheap, clean and reliable. Also diesels are being banned from many of my destinations. Fortunately I already saw the signs on the wall and bought a car on gas after driving around in diesels for 20 years or so.

      You are free to disagree on bio-fuels but you have the facts stacked against you. It is true that the production of bio-fuels which use plants grown specifically for fuel production cannot be extended any further due to shortage of land and preservation of the rain forrest. So a new method had to be devised. Making 3rd generation bio-fuels has been kind of a holy-grail for about a century. However it turns out the problems have been solved by several companies based on the article I linked to above. If you do some conservative extrapolation on the yield per acre provided by POET-DSM it seems you can replace half the fuel consumption of the US with bio-fuel. Yes, POET-DSM's website isn't the easiests one to navigate but there actually is quite a lot of factual information hidden on it.

      And now you might ask: why is bio-fuel so interesting? The thing is that in the end it is a low cost technology which doesn't require massive (costly!) changes to the infrastructure. In Brazil for example they already use 50% bio-fuel. Brazil is a poor country but they are way ahead of reducing the CO2 footprint for transport compared to the rest of the world. But the key thing to pick up here is cost of infrastructure. I think that will stop the adoption of EVs in a couple of years in Europe. The eastern and southern parts are relatively poor and have no EV infrastructure at all because the people can't afford EVs. This is a major concern of the car manufacturers. OTOH people in the richer countries will want a car they can drive across the border. Currently you can forget about taking an EV into Italy for example while it is a very popular holiday destination. In contrast: in the Netherlands they are talking about installing a total of 5 million to 8 million charging points while the Netherlands already has the best EV charging infrastructure compared to Europe. That is close to 1 charging point for each car in the country. Someone will want to milk these and once people figure out how much it is going to cost, most will not want to be the cow. At least I don't want to be the cow being milked for driving an EV. Back to the poorer countries: they don't need any investment to use bio-fuels so it is by far the cheapest way to reduce CO2 emissions from cars.

      Are there other alternatives: yes. Much to my surprise it seems hydrogen has made some kind of a come-back. Last summer I noticed that a lot of German gas station suddenly had hydrogen filling stations. So I looked into it and it turns out the idea isn't so bad after all. Just like the electricity for EVs the hydrogen is mostly made from fossil fuels but at least it also allows to transition to non-fossil sources like wind, sun and nuclear in the long run. Also the adoption of hydrogen cars wil be much easier because filling can be quick (it should be) and the range is acceptable. Every article I've read which mentioned the opinion of consumers underlines that quick filling and range would make them consider a hydrogen car over an electric car. Installing a few hydrogen filling stations along the highways in the poorer countries will be a lot cheaper compared to installing fast chargers in every hotel. In the Netherlands where adoption isn't fast the 3rd hydrogen fuelling station will open in a couple of months. This time it is at a privately owned gas station. The reasoning of the owner is interesting: if I'm the first then the investment will be less worthwhile for my competitors. Also if EVs and/or hydrogen cars start driving around in significant numbers I will sell less fuel so I have to transition onto a new market if I want to keep the business going. The price also seem reasonable: 10 euro per kg which should give 100km of range. Given the fuel prices in the Netherlands that price is on par with driving an ICE car. At least it wouldn't deter me from buying a hydrogen car.

      But this is what my analysis is pointing towards currently. It may change depending on how technology progresses.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 11, 2019, 12:37:47 am

       The so called 3rd generation bio-fuels. There are several factories in the US doing that on an industrial scale. And yes, there is enough agricultural wast to make a significant amount of bio-fuel. The beauty of it is that by using plant leftovers food gets cheaper because more parts of the plants are used.

      Simple question that requires only a simple ( numeric) answer.

      For every litre of Ethanol produced and delivered to end user, How many liters of petro fuels are needed from beginning to end including all oil by products such as fertiliser etc ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 11, 2019, 01:38:46 am
      Not true, 99% of nctnico's posts are spot on. He believes in (some sort of "recycled biomass") biofuels, so what?

      Spot on what?  Yes he's made it clear he believes in biomass and biofuels.  But like religion when he tries to prove what he believes his proof is marketing hype.  When he's presented with the science (physics and chemistry) demonstrating what he believes is incorrect he says the science and experts are all wrong and what he believes is correct.

      Can you provide any credible scientific evidence to show bio-fuels and hydrogen would be a better solution for society?  It's been clearly demonstrated over and over bio-fuels and hydrogen (with the technology we have today and in the future) have been proven to be abysmal failure for society.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on February 11, 2019, 03:19:08 am
      Not true, 99% of nctnico's posts are spot on. He believes in (some sort of "recycled biomass") biofuels, so what?

      Spot on what? 

      Well, spot on if you're a flat-earther. 

      This is the same guy that tried to convince us that the additional energy required to push an ICE car into a headwind was different than the energy to push an EV into headwind.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 11, 2019, 04:30:33 am
      When he's presented with the science (physics and chemistry) demonstrating what he believes is incorrect he says the science and experts are all wrong and what he believes is correct.

      Teenagers 'eh?
      Always know better than anyone else.

      Unfortunately it is a trait of those trying to push green ideals on the rest of the heathen to exeggarate, twist and manipulate the truth and only tell half of the story, the half that suits them of course.

      The problem is it turns people off as soon as they hear the mention of green and it detracts from finding real world solutions where green initiatives might be helpful... If the green motivated didn't want 100% solution's where there are none.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 11, 2019, 05:11:42 am
      I hope your education system in not as bad as ours is in the US. Not too long ago our politicians tired to get a law past which would prevent K-12 teachers form teaching students critical thinking skills.  And then on YouTune there’’s an award winning high school physic teaching who has a video on “free energy”.  He’s teaching studnets there is such s thing as “free energy” if it comes from the sun.  Remember he’s a physics instructor teaching students pyhsics concepts.  If the guy was teaching finance or business “free” would be acceptable.  But he’s not.  He’s teaching physics. 

      Don’t you love this “anything is possible” generation? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 11, 2019, 09:04:55 am

       The so called 3rd generation bio-fuels. There are several factories in the US doing that on an industrial scale. And yes, there is enough agricultural wast to make a significant amount of bio-fuel. The beauty of it is that by using plant leftovers food gets cheaper because more parts of the plants are used.

      Simple question that requires only a simple ( numeric) answer.

      For every litre of Ethanol produced and delivered to end user, How many liters of petro fuels are needed from beginning to end including all oil by products such as fertiliser etc ?

      Zero fertilisers IIUC, because the input is leftovers:

      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=649227;image)

      1) 285e6(kg)/25e6(gallons)= 11.4 kg of corn waste-leftovers / gallon of ethanol, that's not too shabby!
      2) What other chemicals/materials inputs are needed?
      3) How much energy (input) per gallon? <- this data is vital.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 11, 2019, 09:09:10 am
      This is the same guy that tried to convince us that the additional energy required to push an ICE car into a headwind was different than the energy to push an EV into headwind.

      Where? When? I don't believe he said that. You must have misunderstood.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 11, 2019, 09:27:37 am

       And then on YouTune there’’s an award winning high school physic teaching who has a video on “free energy”.  He’s teaching studnets there is such s thing as “free energy” if it comes from the sun.

      Fortunately for you, in my book, you also have one of the greatest teachers and most admirable men I have ever heard of.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcSL2yN39JM&t=10s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcSL2yN39JM&t=10s)

      This guy ought to be a role model and his achievements made known to every teacher in the world far as I'm concerned.  If just 2% of teachers had the passion this guy has, not only would schools be a better place, but truly the world would be.

      Don't know if this guy should be a teacher or a world leader.
      Guess he's both already.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 11, 2019, 09:37:36 am
      pointless as trying to convince people all the transport energy needs can be solved with biofuels.

      I don't think he believes that "all the transport energy needs can be solved with biofuels". He's got a sort of faith or fixation with that poet-dsm thing, so what? Do you know for sure that transformation of agricultural leftovers into fuel can't ever work? Why?

      I've never said a word about this because I just don't know.

      But I do know that if a synthetic liquid fuel could be made without much energy loss (efficiently) from renewables, it would be a very good thing because li-ion batteries aren't good enough to replace liquid fuels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 11, 2019, 09:57:26 am
      3) How much energy (input) per gallon? <- this data is vital.

      Exactly!

      So many of these green ideas heralded to be saving the planet are in fact adding to it's demise through using more energy and creating more emissions than they save over just using fossil fuel.
      None of these schemes can or should be given any credit without through examination to determine they do in fact live up to their near never ending exaggeration of what they achieve. Their numbers also need to be looked at in context of the overall  situation as to what current methods achieve and their contribution to the scale of the problem .

      In this case, my gut feeling based on the immense amount of land  that would be needed to grow replacement for fossil fuel , is this idea even if it does do what it says is going to make a small dent in the over all amount of liquid fuels needed.
      That said, if it is energy efficent and returns more energy than is consumed in it's production looking at the whole picture, then it may well be worth while  to put a waste product to use. 

      From past experience looking at these ideas of which there have been hundreds that turn out to be nothing more than methods to attract research and grant  investment and never have a hope in hell of a positive contribution, the energy inputs and total emissions add up real fast and the idea is not an easy nut to crack.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 11, 2019, 11:18:17 am

      Do you know for sure that transformation of agricultural leftovers into fuel can't ever work? Why?

      The question is work to what end?

      I see from their literature that the goal of this project is not to in fact create an energy positive product ( more energy out than in) but in fact to displace some oil imports. that's a BIG difference.
      In effect they are trying to produce liquid fuels from solid mass but the actually energy input is not a consideration.  That's not at all save the world by running it on bio fuels solution as has been made out here.  It's a turn this into that with a heap of energy thrown in which ultimately means you would be better off using that energy more directly..... like in batteries. Not one bit different to cooking up hydrogen which is also incredibly energy negative when done by electrolysis.

      Heres is an extract from their presentation:

      Goal Statement
      • Project Objectives
      – Process 700 metric tonnes of biomass for the purpose of
      manufacturing cellulosic ethanol in a co-located IBR model
      – Implement a sustainable stover collection, storage and delivery system
      – Demonstrate shared DOE/POET-DSM foresight for biomass investments
      and technology for rapid deployment of commercial scale biorefineries
      – Maximize alternative energy production and minimize traditional
      energy usage (MYPP goal)
      • As with BETO, POET-DSM goal is to develop commercially viable bioenergy
      – To enable sustainable, nationwide production of biofuels
      – Displace a share of petroleum-derived fuels to reduce U.S.
      dependence on foreign oil
      – Encourage the creation of a new domestic bioenergy and bioproduct
      industry. (MYPP goal)
      • Project LIBERTY is one of the first commercial scale cellulosic
      biorefineries operating in the U.S
      – DOE grant accelerated DMT construction and operations
      – Successful DMT will help launch replication

      In short, the project is aimed at making money not at making an energy efficent fuel source.  Just because something is sustainable does not mean it's energy efficient.

      In any case, as usual, the term sustainable in this context is complete and utter bullshit. Take away the oil energy input factor and it hasn't got a hope in hell of sustaining itself.
      From what I can see, there "Breakthrough" in the process is not in making the ethanol at all, it's standardizing a system to collect the corn waste for delivery to the  refinery whom use a very ordinary processing technique. It looks like the feed the bagese once it has been fermented and processed back into the boilers as fuel but our sugar mills have been doing that a decade here so nothing real breakthrough about that.

      Further investigation into the project ( which seems to have all but stalled since 2017)  Shows the raw waste product has to be collected and transported from the refinery. This needs a fossil fuel input in the trucks and machinery.  It needs to be Crushed/ Pulverised and I'll bet washed.  Electrical energy input, water resource input.  It is then fermented, Energy input from yeast and it's production and then cooked.  going by the available info, there is still an electrical energy input there,  not the least of this would be feeding the mash into the fermentation tower, blowers for incinerator/ Furnace, ash filtration etc. 

      The wort is then distilled, and then condensed.  Electrical input there.  It's pumped into storage tanks, more electrical input.

      While some of this may seem small and insignifican't, all these inputs add up and they add up FAST.
      In any case, I don't now see this even being a project that is trying to create energy as such, just change it's form with the addition of a lot of other energy in the conversion process. BFD! Nothing special or trick about that and the same thing has been  touted for other fuel sources and the problems in energy inefficency are exactly the same as with idea.

      It's NOT sustainable, it's NOT an answer to providing energy to the vehicle fleet to get off oil.

      Liquid fuels are a damn site easier to run a vehicle on that a lot vegetation material However, if you are looking for an alternate form of energy to make a significant contribution to the vehicle fleet consumption of the world,  a process that is absolutely, inextricably dependent on Fossil fuels for it's production and has a significant net energy deficit is NOT anywhere near a solution no matter how desperate and hopeful those looking for a miracle to look forward to clearly are.

      At best it's a potential cash cow.

      By their own figures, $175M had been sunk into this by early 2017.
      I can't find anything to say what they HAVE produced as against what they PLAN to produce.  2 Very different things.

      Looking at their completely barf worthy and over hyped facewank page, they are still to produce a drop of ethanol .
      Also very clear this is first and foremost an investment initiative and the Environmental angle is merely the use of a nobel cause to get the bucks they want.

      $1000 says this thing is moth balled inside of 2 years, $5000 says it's gone in 5 or less.
      Dedicated advocates and no doubt outraged deciples of the scam....err, scheme can contact me so we can arrange deposit of funds in an escrow account.   ;D

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 11, 2019, 12:01:12 pm

       The so called 3rd generation bio-fuels. There are several factories in the US doing that on an industrial scale. And yes, there is enough agricultural wast to make a significant amount of bio-fuel. The beauty of it is that by using plant leftovers food gets cheaper because more parts of the plants are used.

      Simple question that requires only a simple ( numeric) answer.

      For every litre of Ethanol produced and delivered to end user, How many liters of petro fuels are needed from beginning to end including all oil by products such as fertiliser etc ?
      The answer is in this article:
      https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty (https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/poet-dsm-project-liberty)
      The portion of the corn stover (primarily lignin) that cannot be converted to biofuel is used to generate the thermal power needed by Project LIBERTY—and much of that power required by the adjacent corn ethanol plant.

      But like any other non-fossil source (wind, solar, etc) fossil fuel input is unavoidable at this point. There has to be some kind of transition phase. Then again heat is likely the most energy intensive part of the plant and that seems to come from bio-mass.

      Fertiliser is also a good point to bring up. At some point we'll also need to switch to non-fossil fuel fertiliser which are likely more expensive so this will make food more expensive. If we can use more of a plant (to make fuel) then the costs of the more expensive fertiliser are spread between food production and fuel production.

      I don't quite understand how you get to the conclusion that nothing is being produced. It simply isn't true that no 3rd generation bio-fuel is being produced.
      http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years (http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years)

      With the medium lift from Edeniq’s Intellulose technology of 1.5 percent, multiplied by the total capacity of the six plants registered as of April, the monthly average production would be 550,000 gallons. Add to that QCCP’s monthly average of 250,000 gallons, based on EPA’s maximum production figure, and the estimated total for the corn kernel fiber-to-ethanol producers comes to a monthly average of 800,000 gallons. Subtracting that from the total of any given month gives a rough indication of how Poet DSM’s Project Liberty is progressing.

      The production of POET-DSM is a bit of a riddle the author of the article has left to the reader.

      Production numbers for 3rd generation bio-fuel from the EPA:
      (http://www.ethanolproducer.com/uploads/posts/magazine/2018/05/RINsGenerated_15277979916295.jpg)

      Also how do you get to POET-DSM only invented a new harvesting / baler system? Are you and DougSpindler the same person with two different accounts?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on February 11, 2019, 02:03:52 pm
      Fertiliser is also a good point to bring up. At some point we'll also need to switch to non-fossil fuel fertiliser which are likely more expensive so this will make food more expensive. If we can use more of a plant (to make fuel) then the costs of the more expensive fertiliser are spread between food production and fuel production.
      What about use treated sewage if it's only for fuel?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 11, 2019, 04:17:17 pm
      Fertiliser is also a good point to bring up. At some point we'll also need to switch to non-fossil fuel fertiliser which are likely more expensive so this will make food more expensive. If we can use more of a plant (to make fuel) then the costs of the more expensive fertiliser are spread between food production and fuel production.
      What about use treated sewage if it's only for fuel?
      A lot of the treated sewage from areas with low levels of heavy metals is already used to treat the land. The treated sewage with a high heavy metals content is really hard to decontaminate, so that is typically incinerated, often to provide power for the treatment works.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 11, 2019, 05:15:45 pm

       And then on YouTune there’’s an award winning high school physic teaching who has a video on “free energy”.  He’s teaching studnets there is such s thing as “free energy” if it comes from the sun.

      Fortunately for you, in my book, you also have one of the greatest teachers and most admirable men I have ever heard of.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcSL2yN39JM&t=10s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcSL2yN39JM&t=10s)

      This guy ought to be a role model and his achievements made known to every teacher in the world far as I'm concerned.  If just 2% of teachers had the passion this guy has, not only would schools be a better place, but truly the world would be.

      Don't know if this guy should be a teacher or a world leader.
      Guess he's both already.

      @george80  Isn’t this guy a modern day Eva Peron or Robin Hood?  It’s so easy to feed people when other people are forced to give you free money (taxes), free land and free/volunteer labor isn’t it? 
      What kind of role model is that?  In the history of the United States we tried something similar which resulted in the killing of over 100 million Native Americans as we stole their land. Then we “tricked” them into working for free for “us” for food other we just inslaved.

      There is no mention at all of the people this guy is making homeless by taking their land.  Or the “honest” hard working farmers who make a living by selling the food they grow.  With this guy giving food away just think of all of the farmers he’s impacting. 

      I notice this guy or any company isn’t converting any of the bio-waste he’s creating into biofuels.  With all of the free money and resources this guy is getting one would think if turning bio-waste into biofuels was worth it he would be doing it.  But he’s not.

      In the United States we call what this guy is doing Communism.  This is something Americas faught against for decadess.  If you think communism is so great why aren’t you living in a communist country?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 11, 2019, 05:28:23 pm
      In the history of the United States we tried something similar which resulted in the killing of over 100 million Native Americans as we stole their land.

      Oh dear, oh dear, that BS again... :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 11, 2019, 05:51:05 pm
      In the history of the United States we tried something similar which resulted in the killing of over 100 million Native Americans as we stole their land.

      Oh dear, oh dear... :palm:

      Yes it was our European relatives who came to this content and killed 100 million for the free land and free food.  Yes we are capitalist.  Would you rather be a communist?  I think that is what is our country protected your country from becoming.  Had the US not entered World War II and won World War II you would be living in a different world.  And had the US not “faught” the spread of communism throughout Western Europe after World War II you might be working for free.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 11, 2019, 06:07:23 pm
      Would you rather be a communist?  I think that is what is our country protected your country from becoming.

      LOL :palm: Obviously you do not know anything about Poland either, right? And this is waay off topic BTW. Better let's stop.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 11, 2019, 07:02:13 pm
      Would you rather be a communist?  I think that is what is our country protected your country from becoming.

      LOL :palm: Obviously you do not know anything about Poland either, right? And this is waay off topic BTW. Better let's stop.

      Well I know Poland is NOT in Western Europe.

      Biofuels are a bunch of FUD yet a couple of posters seem to beleive otherwise.  And when presented with the evidence and the science proving otherwise.

      It would be nice if you and that other guy would stop posting all of that false and incorrect information.  It’s one thing to have an intelligent discussion so all can learn and benefit.  But when you using marking hype and try and pass it off as science that is where it has to STOP.

       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 11, 2019, 07:54:00 pm
      Well I know Poland is NOT in Western Europe.
      Really? Try looking at a map. It was referred to as Eastern Europe in the Iron Curtain days, but it isn't really to the east of Europe.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 11, 2019, 08:05:32 pm
      Well I know Poland is NOT in Western Europe.
      Really? Try looking at a map. It was referred to as Eastern Europe in the Iron Curtain days, but it isn't really to the east of Europe.

      Has Poland moved?  There are your beliefs, and then there is what everyone else agrees.


      Poland, officially the Republic of Poland, is a country located in Central Europe. It is divided into 16 administrative subdivisions, covering an area of 312,696 square kilometres, and has a largely temperate seasonal climate






      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 11, 2019, 08:20:37 pm
      Well I know Poland is NOT in Western Europe.
      Really? Try looking at a map. It was referred to as Eastern Europe in the Iron Curtain days, but it isn't really to the east of Europe.

      Has Poland moved?  There are your beliefs, and then there is what everyone else agrees.


      Poland, officially the Republic of Poland, is a country located in Central Europe. It is divided into 16 administrative subdivisions, covering an area of 312,696 square kilometres, and has a largely temperate seasonal climate
      You just agreed with me. Its right in the middle of Europe. It only appeared to be in the East when the Iron Curtain set a false threshold far to the west.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: IanMacdonald on February 11, 2019, 09:10:19 pm
      Actually if you are in Japan, China is west. America is east. It's all relative.  :-//
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 11, 2019, 09:26:46 pm
      Actually if you are in Japan, China is west. America is east. It's all relative.  :-//

      Yes and what if we were on the moon or Sun?  We can play this what if game all you want.  Question is do you want to share realities or not?  I know you guys are not that stupid and we use  language to share and describe our realities with others.  You’re all of you so you know what I’m saying so I’m not sure what your point is.  It is you who is questioning the location of Poland yet you know exactly what I mean.  You’re making a frivolous argument
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 11, 2019, 09:41:22 pm

        It’s so easy to feed people when other people are forced to give you free money (taxes), free land and free/volunteer labor isn’t it? 

      There is no mention at all of the people this guy is making homeless by taking their land.  Or the “honest” hard working farmers who make a living by selling the food they grow.  With this guy giving food away just think of all of the farmers he’s impacting. 

      In the United States we call what this guy is doing Communism.

      WTF??

      Are you taking the piss or are you actually serious?  Did you watch and understand what the guy is doing?

      Hes educating kids from the poorest backgrounds,  giving them an interest that gets them to uni and well paid jobs, gives whole communities hope and feeds a bunch of people.  Feeding poor People in the us Is Communism??  What is your way< Let them go hungry?

      He's not taking anyone's land or displacing people, he's using deserted land  in a lot of shithole areas of cities that no one is using and the only people he's probably displacing are Drug dealers and crack heads.

      As for the farmers whom he is supposedly impacting, do you not get that these people are not and never will be their customers in the first place and in fact what he is doing is more likely to help their sales by getting them used to fresh produce than what they were before?

      Don't know how you can relate this guy to be anything like using slave labour or Killing natives but if what he is doing is Communism, Sign me up!
      I would be damn proud to achieve what this guy has and all the good he has done.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 11, 2019, 09:46:14 pm
      Fertiliser is also a good point to bring up. At some point we'll also need to switch to non-fossil fuel fertiliser which are likely more expensive so this will make food more expensive. If we can use more of a plant (to make fuel) then the costs of the more expensive fertiliser are spread between food production and fuel production.
      What about use treated sewage if it's only for fuel?
      I'm not a farmer but I think farming as a business is all about return on investment. It may not make sense to use a lesser fertiliser if that results in a lower yield. Harvesting the crops will cost the same whether there is a lot or just a little on the field. Besides that I think land shouldn't be wasted on growing feedstock for fuel only.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 11, 2019, 10:29:33 pm

      I'm not a farmer but I think farming as a business is all about return on investment.

      Wow! Genius! You sure are switched on for a 15 yo lad.
      Sometimes!

      Quote
      Besides that I think land shouldn't be wasted on growing feedstock for fuel only.

      Which makes the whole biofuels thing really Hard. To the point of impossible from an efficiency POV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 11, 2019, 10:35:02 pm
      Besides that I think land shouldn't be wasted on growing feedstock for fuel only.
      Which makes the whole biofuels thing really Hard. To the point of impossible from an efficiency POV.
      Without any numbers to back that up that is just your opinion. So please enlighten us with some calculations to back your claim.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 11, 2019, 11:22:39 pm
      Without any numbers to back that up that is just your opinion. So please enlighten us with some calculations to back your claim.

      Bwhahahaha!

      Talk about Hypocritical!

      YOU of all people want numbers to back up a comment?
      The guy who provides nothing but endless and flawed waffle and promotional material from the vested interests you promote as fact to back up your religious like beliefs???   That's not even counting the ridiclious and illogical other rubbish you spout. Hahahaha!

      Wouldn't matter what anyone showed as fact, you'd dispute and dismiss it with some rubbish excuse and maintain you were right no matter how clearly it were proven the complete opposite... as I have already done with your claims several times over already.

      When you say something (everything) without proof it's fact but when someone else does, it's just their Opinion. Yeah right.
      It will always just be opinion to you because you are completely brainwashed and close minded in what you believe and there is no room for fact or contradiction of anything in your ingrained beliefs. You are so desperate for something to believe in and give you hope where you have none other in your life, you cling to this one belief you have latched onto like a life rope to give you the motivation to face tomorrow.

      I'll bet my backside I could say I got a hand full of corn I put in a bucket, sprinkled a chemical Mix I came up with over it and got 100L of Biofuel out of it  10 Min later and  you'd not ask for  numbers or call it just an opinion then would you? You wouldn"t be able to tell everyone fast enough how you were right and biofuels will save the world.

      Sorry mate, You don't have the credibility with me to ask for proof of anything.  Until YOU provide some evidence to back up your fantasies, I have already put in more time than you are worth to show the flaws in your pipe dreams.
      YOU want to be believed, YOU prove your own points first. Don't expect me to do the home work you wont or in fact cant.
       
      Go back to school young man. You still have SO much to learn and you need to learn it very badly.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 11, 2019, 11:34:43 pm
      So you basically have nothing to add? Why write such a long post then? Just state you don't know any numbers. I posted links to several seperate sources of information which all point in the same direction. You OTOH have brought up nothing factual to contradict anything.

      If there is anyone which seems to have an agenda it is you. Either you are trolling or are being paid to make bio-fuel look bad. Your lack of factual information is pretty transparent though.

      I like the young man comment though. It has been a long time since someone called me that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 12, 2019, 01:59:31 am

        It’s so easy to feed people when other people are forced to give you free money (taxes), free land and free/volunteer labor isn’t it? 

      There is no mention at all of the people this guy is making homeless by taking their land.  Or the “honest” hard working farmers who make a living by selling the food they grow.  With this guy giving food away just think of all of the farmers he’s impacting. 

      In the United States we call what this guy is doing Communism.

      WTF??

      Are you taking the piss or are you actually serious?  Did you watch and understand what the guy is doing?

      Hes educating kids from the poorest backgrounds,  giving them an interest that gets them to uni and well paid jobs, gives whole communities hope and feeds a bunch of people.  Feeding poor People in the us Is Communism??  What is your way< Let them go hungry?

      He's not taking anyone's land or displacing people, he's using deserted land  in a lot of shithole areas of cities that no one is using and the only people he's probably displacing are Drug dealers and crack heads.

      As for the farmers whom he is supposedly impacting, do you not get that these people are not and never will be their customers in the first place and in fact what he is doing is more likely to help their sales by getting them used to fresh produce than what they were before?

      Don't know how you can relate this guy to be anything like using slave labour or Killing natives but if what he is doing is Communism, Sign me up!
      I would be damn proud to achieve what this guy has and all the good he has done.

      I fully understand what the guy is doing, but do you? 

      Yes he is educating students.  In the United States we offer a free education to all of our citizens including illegal immigrants.

      What is your definition of a uni and well paid jobs?  You are jumping to conclusions.  Just exactly how much are they making once they graduate from high school?  I suspect IF they can get a job it's minimum wage.  Only way these kids could get a well paid job is if they were growing marijuana.

      Yes it's the shithole part of the city but homeless were living there.  This guy is now making the homeless, homeless.  Where are the homeless to live?  The land his students are farming on they are not paying for.  Yet somebody owns it.  In the US we don't have any land anymore that is not owned by someone.  So he's getting a hand out there.  Contrast that to a farmer who has to pay for the land used to farm.  There's no free handout to farmers.

      The United States was founded on stealing land from native Americans and slaves.  The students in the video are effectually free labor.  (I am by no means saying they are slaves.)  But are they getting paid?  I don't think we pay students to go to school.

      Look I am by now means saying what this guy is doing is not a good thing.  It appears he's having a positive impact on some peoples lives.  But at the same time what he's doing has a negative impact on other people's lives.  Looking at the organization's web site there are a lot of corporate sponsors.  I believe he said he's giving the food away.  The US did this in Haiti after the earthquake.  What we did was ruin the lives of all of the small shops everyone depends on for other food and other items.  These small local stores could not survive and closed.  Locals who needed other items such as milk and other food stuffs not being given away by the US caused another wave of starvation.  New York is the same with lots of small local stores.  If these small stores go out of business where are folks going to get basic necessities?

      Do you know the story of Play Pumps and clean drinking water?
      If you liked what this guy did, you will be ecstatic about the Play Pumps.  Take note of how much money was raised for Play Pumps and clean drinking water.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrmQ9s2t1Jw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrmQ9s2t1Jw)

      And then there's the rest of the story?  How much money was raised for Play Pumps?

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTJgAK7e9ro (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTJgAK7e9ro)

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYRFuDYNykY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYRFuDYNykY)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 12, 2019, 02:56:06 am

      Long way off topic here but I'll say I think talking about making homeless people homeless and having an issue with disused land being used to produce food is a real long stretch.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 12, 2019, 03:02:27 am
      You OTOH have brought up nothing factual to contradict anything.

      If there is anyone which seems to have an agenda it is you. Either you are trolling or are being paid to make bio-fuel look bad. Your lack of factual information is pretty transparent though.

      I like the young man comment though. It has been a long time since someone called me that.

      Mate, unfortunately you completely lack any credibility or respect I would require for you biased Viewpoint to argue with you any further.
      You clearly haven't clue what you  are talking about, certainly haven't got a clue what the difference between fact and promotional material is so carry on as you wish.

      No one is taking you the least bit seriously anymore other than the fact you are becoming a pest.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 12, 2019, 03:16:14 am

      Long way off topic here but I'll say I think talking about making homeless people homeless and having an issue with disused land being used to produce food is a real long stretch.

      No argument there.  Any idea how many homeless people there are?  There are literally 100s of mini cities with 100s of homeless people living in tents with solar panels, and generators.  There are so many people that the city is paying for hundreds of Porta-Potties and hand washing stations.  Is the land really disused?

      Just saying the are additional aspects to the story we heard in the Ted talk which were not discussed.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 12, 2019, 03:27:38 am
      You OTOH have brought up nothing factual to contradict anything.

      If there is anyone which seems to have an agenda it is you. Either you are trolling or are being paid to make bio-fuel look bad. Your lack of factual information is pretty transparent though.

      I like the young man comment though. It has been a long time since someone called me that.

      Mate, unfortunately you completely lack any credibility or respect I would require for you biased Viewpoint to argue with you any further.
      You clearly haven't clue what you  are talking about, certainly haven't got a clue what the difference between fact and promotional material is so carry on as you wish.

      No one is taking you the least bit seriously anymore other than the fact you are becoming a pest.

      Oh no here he goes again.  As soon he feels he's lost an argument he immediately calls the person a troll.  Every time he's been asked to provide any credible evidence he fails.  And I think he believes the laws of physics don't apply to anything he believes in.

      I will say I have to thank him for many of his posts.  I'm question and fact check many of the claims he has made.  And in fact checking I learned a lot about biofuels and hydrogen powered cars.  Unfortunately most of what he's posted are marking hype type claims from a few years ago.  If you look at how well those claims did you find they were met with failure or had mediocre performance.  He's helped me learn a lot with his misleading posts.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on February 12, 2019, 06:11:24 am
      It feels good to a poorly informed public. Its branded as a green product, and that's all you need to make lots of people feel good about using it.

      Like most things that appeal to the greenwashed.
      Calling people names doesn't help you get your point over.

      Neither do factual errors.
      Quote
      Like recycling paper to save trees.  Forget the trees are plantation grown

      In Australia, particularly WA, the trees used for woodchipping are part of natural forests.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodchipping_in_Australia

      Quote
      Like the people that buy hybrids that use more resources and energy in their production and have higher emissions from the materials that go into them than a regular vehicle and thin think they are doing something better than the guy who drives a regular IC vehicle

      Another popular one right now is home storage batteries.  I put one on the house and am a hero saving the world. forget the fact they have materials that are highly toxic in their mining and refinement, forget they are completely un economical and forget most of they can't be recycled.

      It's the flavour of the month at trendy cocktail parties and save the world protest so that's all that matters.

      Yes, some "green stuff" is bullshit, but so is a lot of the "anti-green" rhetoric.
      By the way, before you ask, I'm 75, & I've never been to a "trendy cocktail party " in my life!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on February 12, 2019, 07:10:05 am

       And then on YouTune there’’s an award winning high school physic teaching who has a video on “free energy”.  He’s teaching studnets there is such s thing as “free energy” if it comes from the sun.

      Fortunately for you, in my book, you also have one of the greatest teachers and most admirable men I have ever heard of.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcSL2yN39JM&t=10s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcSL2yN39JM&t=10s)

      This guy ought to be a role model and his achievements made known to every teacher in the world far as I'm concerned.  If just 2% of teachers had the passion this guy has, not only would schools be a better place, but truly the world would be.

      Don't know if this guy should be a teacher or a world leader.
      Guess he's both already.

      @george80  Isn’t this guy a modern day Eva Peron or Robin Hood?  It’s so easy to feed people when other people are forced to give you free money (taxes), free land and free/volunteer labor isn’t it? 
      What kind of role model is that?  In the history of the United States we tried something similar which resulted in the killing of over 100 million Native Americans as we stole their land. Then we “tricked” them into working for free for “us” for food other we just inslaved.

      There is no mention at all of the people this guy is making homeless by taking their land.  Or the “honest” hard working farmers who make a living by selling the food they grow.  With this guy giving food away just think of all of the farmers he’s impacting.

      Well, if you are talking about the homeless people who "sleep rough" on these bits of vacant land, they don't really own the land, & could be turfed out on their ear by developers at any time.
      But that would be all right,----- because of market forces, etc.

      The gardens are pretty small stuff in the scheme 'of things, & wouldn't have a major impact upon farmer's incomes.
      Hell!, they've got something similar in my home town, but they don't have a "show pony " running it!
      Quote

      I notice this guy or any company isn’t converting any of the bio-waste he’s creating into biofuels.  With all of the free money and resources this guy is getting one would think if turning bio-waste into biofuels was worth it he would be doing it.  But he’s not.
      Again, despite the hype, it's pretty small stuff in the scheme of things, & like anything else, there is a critical mass beyond which it is worth doing.
      Quote
      In the United States we call what this guy is doing Communism.  This is something Americas faught against for decadess.  If you think communism is so great why aren’t you living in a communist country?

      That's Communism?
      I don't remember dear old Nikita Kruschev, or Leonid Brezhnev giving anybody anything free!

      That old Commie Jesus Christ gave away "loaves & fishes", though, so we mustn't follow his example!
      He drank, too--remember when he turned water into wine!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 12, 2019, 07:51:34 am
      A neighbor just got a Nissan e-NV200.
      It is pretty nearly perfect for what I do... Range, size, price etc.
      Except the interior partition has to be removed to load standard size 250x60cm OSB or plaster boards... On their edge etc...
      There should be a slot for about 10 18mm boards under the seats (if more than ten are needed, usually getting delivered makes more sense) loaded flat.
      This would make the van much more valuable for small contractors...


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 12, 2019, 09:37:26 am

       And then on YouTune there’’s an award winning high school physic teaching who has a video on “free energy”.  He’s teaching studnets there is such s thing as “free energy” if it comes from the sun.

      Fortunately for you, in my book, you also have one of the greatest teachers and most admirable men I have ever heard of.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcSL2yN39JM&t=10s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcSL2yN39JM&t=10s)

      This guy ought to be a role model and his achievements made known to every teacher in the world far as I'm concerned.  If just 2% of teachers had the passion this guy has, not only would schools be a better place, but truly the world would be.

      Don't know if this guy should be a teacher or a world leader.
      Guess he's both already.

      @george80  Isn’t this guy a modern day Eva Peron or Robin Hood?  It’s so easy to feed people when other people are forced to give you free money (taxes), free land and free/volunteer labor isn’t it? 
      What kind of role model is that?  In the history of the United States we tried something similar which resulted in the killing of over 100 million Native Americans as we stole their land. Then we “tricked” them into working for free for “us” for food other we just inslaved.

      There is no mention at all of the people this guy is making homeless by taking their land.  Or the “honest” hard working farmers who make a living by selling the food they grow.  With this guy giving food away just think of all of the farmers he’s impacting.

      Well, if you are talking about the homeless people who "sleep rough" on these bits of vacant land, they don't really own the land, & could be turfed out on their ear by developers at any time.
      But that would be all right,----- because of market forces, etc.

      The gardens are pretty small stuff in the scheme 'of things, & wouldn't have a major impact upon farmer's incomes.
      Hell!, they've got something similar in my home town, but they don't have a "show pony " running it!
      Quote

      I notice this guy or any company isn’t converting any of the bio-waste he’s creating into biofuels.  With all of the free money and resources this guy is getting one would think if turning bio-waste into biofuels was worth it he would be doing it.  But he’s not.
      Again, despite the hype, it's pretty small stuff in the scheme of things, & like anything else, there is a critical mass beyond which it is worth doing.
      Quote
      In the United States we call what this guy is doing Communism.  This is something Americas faught against for decadess.  If you think communism is so great why aren’t you living in a communist country?

      That's Communism?
      I don't remember dear old Nikita Kruschev, or Leonid Brezhnev giving anybody anything free!

      That old Commie Jesus Christ gave away "loaves & fishes", though, so we mustn't follow his example!
      He drank, too--remember when he turned water into wine!

      Hold on a second my friend lets see if the Green Bronx program fits the detonation of communism?

      Communism is a classless social system with one form of public ownership of the means of production and with full social equality of all members of society. Under communism, the all-round development of people will be accompanied by the growth of the productive forces on the basis of continuous progress in science and technology, all the springs of social wealth will flow abundantly, and the great principle "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" will be implemented. Communism is a highly organised society of free, socially conscious working people a society in which public self-government will be established, a society in which labour for the good of society will become the prime vital requirement of everyone, a clearly recognised necessity, and the ability of each person will be employed to the greatest benefit of the people.

      And yes the teaching of Jesus Christ are comunistic far more so than capitalistic.

      I want to thank you for challenging me on this and I have spent time researching what this teacher is doing.  The TED video is 5 or 6 years old and it appears the teachers program has changed over time.  In newer materail they claim they are giving 5,000 prounds of food away for free every year.  This is not given to the kids families but to cancer patients who can afford food.

      What he’s doing is certainly not capitalism or socialism.

      The guy in the video is an elementary school teacher.  His garden is in his classroom which is on the fourth floor of a public school.  Not sure how an elementary school teacher is getting these students high paying jobs.  It’s also unclear if he’s now an elementary school science teacher?  Or if he teaches a grade of studnets.  If he’s a science teacher he spends maybe 30-45 minutes per week with studnets from all grades throughout the school year.  Vs, teaching one grade level of 25 students for a year.  I suspect he’s a science teacher.

      I think you are correct this program is very small and there is a lot more hype to it.  For a public school he has a lot of very expensive equipment and supplies, but I suspect this is due to the corporate sponsorship as there is no way a public school would have funds for the equipment and supplies the guy has.

      It looks like the garden in the street is a separate but related program.  I don’t think he runs the street garden program.  It looks like that is really run by four volunteers.  Based on the amount of high quality PR there is about this progam I suspect the seed money for the program is the result of several well written grants and a lot of politicking.

      I’ve got to hand it to the guy he’s doing a wonderful job.  It would be interesting to see of the guy is really making an impact on these kids lives.  He’s been doing it long eneough that many of his stundent would have entered the workforce by now.  And he said in the video he’s in an area with 40% unemployment and where 99% of the students qualify for the free food programs.  (Meaning tax payers pay for the food and the preparation of the food these kids eat.).  Not sure if this would be communism or socialism but its sure not capitalism.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 12, 2019, 10:03:30 am
      Just having a look at some news articles on EV's here.  Seems the PC greenwashed media has taken to guilt  tripping everyone for not rushing out to buy a new EV.

      'What about the plug?' Australia's electric car infrastructure stalled by policy paralysis

      Report urges Government to support electric vehicles

      Electric car policy ‘weak and shallow'

      Yep, seems once again the little guy is supposed to help big business line their pockets and so is the gubermint and we'll all be guilt tripped until we do.

      I did see a gubbermint report done last year that makes 2 out of 17 reccomendations in preparing for EV's that the power authourity take into consideration the additional loads EV's will cause and plan for it. Pretty laughable. They can't even provide enough power for people to run their AC on a hot day now. Wait till a few  more power stations close down and a few thousand EV's hit the grid.

      Did a bit of research into my mobile charge truck for people whom run out of power along the road idea today. Can set that up cheaper than I planned.
      Was looking at a 50 Kw genny but on further thought I reckon a 25 will do.  The bigger the genny the bigger the vehicle I'll need to carry them and that may restrict access into various places.  If I can keep it to a 1 ton ute, that would be better than having a 2 ton truck that wouldn't fit in car parks. Then again, there may be a need for faster, fuller charge so a 50 Kw thumper on the back of a 2 tonner might be a premium service.

       The way to go I think would be charge a call out fee with 10Kwh of charge included and then an additional charge per 10Kw unit after that. The longer it takes to charge you up and the more fuel I burn the more they pay.
      One thing I was wondering about is if it would be possible to charge in the rain in the open? may have to put up some sort of shelter and dry around the vehicle before connecting.

      Probably only need 2-3 cables if that.  Have to look into it a bit more, I think Tesla has one to themselves and the majority of the rest will all get by with another type. Might just need to have a fairly long cable to get the juice into vehicles that may not be in the easiest  place's to access.
       
      I also saw on the gubbermint Recommendations that all new homes be made EV charger ready.  Obviously put in a heavy duty Circuit but I wonder if homes will be required to have a charge point?  Would be interesting. You go visit grandpa in the country for a family get together and all the atendees want to charge their vehicle for the trip home. Grandpa's charge is going flat out all day and into the evening and grandpa's electric bill just went up $50.
      Will the etiquette be there to slip grandpa some cash or will people just take it as their right and leave grandpa to pay their fuel bill.

      Pretty sure there is at least 1 in every family that would do that so it will be another social consequence  of the EV age.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 12, 2019, 10:46:45 am
      Just having a look at some news articles on EV's here.  Seems the PC greenwashed media has taken to guilt  tripping everyone for not rushing out to buy a new EV.

      'What about the plug?' Australia's electric car infrastructure stalled by policy paralysis

      Report urges Government to support electric vehicles

      Electric car policy ‘weak and shallow'

      Yep, seems once again the little guy is supposed to help big business line their pockets and so is the gubermint and we'll all be guilt tripped until we do.

      I did see a gubbermint report done last year that makes 2 out of 17 reccomendations in preparing for EV's that the power authourity take into consideration the additional loads EV's will cause and plan for it. Pretty laughable. They can't even provide enough power for people to run their AC on a hot day now. Wait till a few  more power stations close down and a few thousand EV's hit the grid.

      Did a bit of research into my mobile charge truck for people whom run out of power along the road idea today. Can set that up cheaper than I planned.
      Was looking at a 50 Kw genny but on further thought I reckon a 25 will do.  The bigger the genny the bigger the vehicle I'll need to carry them and that may restrict access into various places.  If I can keep it to a 1 ton ute, that would be better than having a 2 ton truck that wouldn't fit in car parks. Then again, there may be a need for faster, fuller charge so a 50 Kw thumper on the back of a 2 tonner might be a premium service.

       The way to go I think would be charge a call out fee with 10Kwh of charge included and then an additional charge per 10Kw unit after that. The longer it takes to charge you up and the more fuel I burn the more they pay.
      One thing I was wondering about is if it would be possible to charge in the rain in the open? may have to put up some sort of shelter and dry around the vehicle before connecting.

      Probably only need 2-3 cables if that.  Have to look into it a bit more, I think Tesla has one to themselves and the majority of the rest will all get by with another type. Might just need to have a fairly long cable to get the juice into vehicles that may not be in the easiest  place's to access.
       
      I also saw on the gubbermint Recommendations that all new homes be made EV charger ready.  Obviously put in a heavy duty Circuit but I wonder if homes will be required to have a charge point?  Would be interesting. You go visit grandpa in the country for a family get together and all the atendees want to charge their vehicle for the trip home. Grandpa's charge is going flat out all day and into the evening and grandpa's electric bill just went up $50.
      Will the etiquette be there to slip grandpa some cash or will people just take it as their right and leave grandpa to pay their fuel bill.

      Pretty sure there is at least 1 in every family that would do that so it will be another social consequence  of the EV age.

      In all of Australia only 215 EV cars are sold per year?

      Here’s info on why EVs ar eno better for the environment than ICE.  In fact in some cases they are worse.

      https://youtu.be/k6GeHnMwl1c
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 12, 2019, 11:19:38 am
      Would like to hear people’s comments on this video.  Not sure who the guy is or who funds the organization he works for.  He sure gives compelling facts as to why EVs pollute more than ICEs.  And why there will never be enough solar and wind power to charge EVs.  (His numbers by the way agree with the solar and wind power association predictions.)
       This video and the video in the last post sure make EVs out to be worse for the global environment while they might be good for the local environment.

      https://youtu.be/17xh_VRrnMU
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 12, 2019, 11:35:48 am
      Would like to hear people’s comments on this video.  Not sure who the guy is or who funds the organization he works for.  He sure gives compelling facts as to why EVs pollute more than ICEs.  And why there will never be enough solar and wind power to charge EVs.  (His numbers by the way agree with the solar and wind power association predictions.)
       This video and the video in the last post sure make EVs out to be worse for the global environment while they might be good for the local environment.

      https://youtu.be/17xh_VRrnMU
      Its from Prager University, which is about as much like a university as Trump University was. The comments under that video list multiple well thought out rebuttals.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 12, 2019, 01:16:37 pm

      I fully believe what is said in the vid.
      just because we are brainwashed that EVs are better and cleaner and cheaper to run and all the hype does not mean in any way it is true.


      I have to say I am sick to the back teeth of hearing about Co2 though. Bored shitless in fact.

      I did some number crunching using Teslas own figures on cost to run a while back and found the EV was more expensive to run than an IC. As usual, tesla slews the numbers their way by offering an amount of free charging which they take into their calculation to make the numbers look favourable. Of course when you have used up that free power (400? Kw) and are paying a middle road price for power in oz of .30C Kwh, the things are significantly more exy to run for the same miles traveled.

      There is one thing i don't often see factored into the EV equation and that's Vehicle Life.
      It's pretty clear to everyone that once the battery pack in an EV dies or looses significant capacity  in the estimated 7-10 years, the things will be worthless.
      Unlike the cost of maintence for an IC which can easily go 20 Year without  major over haul, a new/ refurb EV pack will be more than the car is worth.
      A lot of the diagnostics on EV's won't be happy with a calculted 50 Km range from say 250KM, They will just brick the things to make sure there are no safety issues for one thing.

      It won't be just a matter of go to a wrecker and get another pack. Already manufacturers are coding parts to the cars computer ( Tesla even does head and tail lights that won't work until coded and approved to work on another vehicle which they decide  and have to authorize) so if the manufacturer says something like "  we only allow refurb packs to be used bought through us so we can be assured they meet our quality and safety standards" or similar bullshit,  You can bet they are going to price the packs so as to make a replacement un economical and force you into a new vehicle.

      there goes giving the old car to the kids or selling it and putting the money towards the new one. The thing will be SCRAP.
      Plenty of 10 and 20 yo cars getting round here and doing fine.  I have a 13, a 17 and a 26 Yo now and they give no trouble at all.
      the 17 Yo just had a through going though and I replaced a driveshaft, front pads and the wiper blades as well as an oil and filter change.  Cam belt has another 40k km to go and I don't see anything more than that needing to be done other than regular Maintence.

       Seems unlikely they will be many/ any EV's past 10 Yo.  Faster turn over means more resources used, more emissions created and over all a detriment for the planet.

      The whole thing about EV's being enviro friendly is a crock. they are not created to save the planet, they are made to make the manufacturers money. More money than they have seen since they started.
      Simple as that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 12, 2019, 02:33:52 pm
      I think the gubbermints as you say want to try to force us to trash all our ICEs asap and buy again new cars everybody. That's lots in taxes and fees and macro economy figures which is good for them and bad for us and our pockets.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: orion242 on February 12, 2019, 03:20:20 pm
      It's pretty clear to everyone that once the battery pack in an EV dies or looses significant capacity  in the estimated 7-10 years, the things will be worthless.
      Unlike the cost of maintence for an IC which can easily go 20 Year without  major over haul, a new/ refurb EV pack will be more than the car is worth.

      Was thinking along the same lines after hearing these nuts talk about powering buildings with EVs

      https://youtu.be/ZocItmIPQEM?t=375

      So I drive to work, hopefully charge while there and ideally have a full charge when I leave.  How much power could really be sucked out of EVs and still leave me with enough to get home, never mind if I have errands to run after work?   Unless there are quick chargers at every parking spot, seems like there would be little to harvest.  Would be interesting to look at the avg number of cars parked at the typical commercial building and its power consumption and what installing charge ports in a whole parking structure costs.

      That aside.  I own said battery pack and its got a limited number of cycles and the most expensive component to replace.  What incentive is there for me to sign up for this nonsense and wear the piss out of my battery?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on February 12, 2019, 04:23:10 pm
      Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: orion242 on February 12, 2019, 04:29:16 pm
      Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study)

      Over four years...avoiding the whole battery replacement costs.

      One could easily do a write up with the opposite conclusion and look at the costs on day one, aka purchase price.

      Somewhat pointless in both cases.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 12, 2019, 04:41:51 pm
      Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study)
      Over four years...

      One could easily do a write up with the opposite conclusion and look at the costs on day one, aka purchase price.

      Somewhat pointless in both cases.
      Agreed and the comparison is likely not taking the massive costs of infrastructure upgrades into account and assumes people can charge at home.
      The dead giveaway the graph is wrong (lying) is because diesel cars are more expensive compared to petrol. Diesel cars are cheaper to run because the fuel is cheaper but the higher purchase price requires you to drive more.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on February 12, 2019, 04:42:59 pm
      Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study)

      Over four years...avoiding the whole battery replacement costs.

      One could easily do a write up with the opposite conclusion and look at the costs on day one, aka purchase price.

      Somewhat pointless in both cases.
      As for your suggested calculation, who buys a car and then instantly resells it (which is the only scenario that would apply).

      This just comes down to "haters gonna hate" , doesn't it?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: orion242 on February 12, 2019, 05:01:51 pm
      As for your suggested calculation, who buys a car and then instantly resells it (which is the only scenario that would apply).

      Said nothing about selling it.  For comparable car, roll it off the lot, which is cheaper today and without a ton of subsidies?

      This just comes down to "haters gonna hate" , doesn't it?

      And then there are the Musk fanboys that think they will sitting on mars with cold frosty drinks in a few years for little more than the cost of today's plane tickets.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 12, 2019, 06:11:42 pm
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT3Z9tRZFFo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT3Z9tRZFFo)

       >:D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 12, 2019, 06:43:02 pm
      Would like to hear people’s comments on this video.  Not sure who the guy is or who funds the organization he works for.  He sure gives compelling facts as to why EVs pollute more than ICEs.  And why there will never be enough solar and wind power to charge EVs.  (His numbers by the way agree with the solar and wind power association predictions.)
       This video and the video in the last post sure make EVs out to be worse for the global environment while they might be good for the local environment.

      https://youtu.be/17xh_VRrnMU
      Its from Prager University, which is about as much like a university as Trump University was. The comments under that video list multiple well thought out rebuttals.

      Can you highlight some of the well thought out rebuttals you seem to have found?  Most are opinions which say what's in the video is wrong.  Of that that Prager has a agenda and is biased.

      While all of that might be true no one has provided any credible evidence to the contrary.  In the limited fact checking I have done I can't find any fault in the science or the figures.

      A fact used in the video is the life of the car.  Looking at stats from around the world average age is around 9 years is fair based on the date the video was created.

      It is really a fair representation to have a sample size of 1 or 4 countries?  So while some of you might live in Australia where EVs are charged by coal. Or in Canada where they would be charged by hydro.  Or Sweden/France where they are charged by nuclear.  And it looks like if you live in the UK and own an EV the electricity is free.

      Why are you thinking locally when what's being discussed in the video is globally?  And the life of the average car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: orion242 on February 12, 2019, 07:34:05 pm
      Even that video seems to only compare the first 9yrs between ICE & EV.  Personally I have kept the last 3-4 cars till they got in the 150-200k mark.  Last one just got taken off the road by the inspection nazis, 2002 Chevy S10 with 167k miles.  Ran great yet, but was rusting so much it was BER.

      Just looking at some quick figures, its seems the DOT has the average lifespan of a US car at 11yrs these days.  Seems realistic, I certainly take them to the grave and normally get more than that.

      How long is the lifespan on a EV battery?  100K miles?  150k?  200k?

      https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost (https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost)
      https://www.autotrader.com/car-tips/long-term-electric-vehicle-ownership-pros-and-cons-220975 (https://www.autotrader.com/car-tips/long-term-electric-vehicle-ownership-pros-and-cons-220975)

      So what is the resale value of a 10yr old EV?  Guessing most of these end up at the scrapper since its probably not worth the battery replacement cost at that point.  If ICE can get another few years of useful life, that alot of additional manufacturing impact as well.  150-200K miles isn't a problem for a maintained ICE of the last few decades.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: dzseki on February 12, 2019, 07:59:14 pm
      Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 12, 2019, 08:03:36 pm
      Even that video seems to only compare the first 9yrs between ICE & EV.  Personally I have kept the last 3-4 cars till they got in the 150-200k mark.  Last one just got taken off the road by the inspection nazis, 2002 Chevy S10 with 167k miles.  Ran great yet, but was rusting so much it was BER.

      Just looking at some quick figures, its seems the DOT has the average lifespan of a US car at 11yrs these days.  Seems realistic, I certainly take them to the grave and normally get more than that.

      How long is the lifespan on a EV battery?  100K miles?  150k?  200k?

      https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost (https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost)
      https://www.autotrader.com/car-tips/long-term-electric-vehicle-ownership-pros-and-cons-220975 (https://www.autotrader.com/car-tips/long-term-electric-vehicle-ownership-pros-and-cons-220975)

      So what is the resale value of a 10yr old EV?  Guessing most of these end up at the scrapper since its probably not worth the battery replacement cost at that point.  If ICE can get another few years of useful life, that alot of additional manufacturing impact as well.  150-200K miles isn't a problem for a maintained ICE of the last few decades.

      We are in the middle of an experiment with EV batteries.  We have hypothetical figures, but the truth is we don't know for modern EVs.  I think we have very good data from the first EVs of 100 years ago.  And second generation EVs from the 1970s.

      Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

      As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
      The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

      Out of curiosity anyone know the life of EV batteries from 100 years ago?  Baker EVs could be driven four to five hours on a single charge.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 12, 2019, 08:17:50 pm
      Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...
      I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. I don't see any horror stories on the local Ford forum. Besides that many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 12, 2019, 08:19:19 pm
      Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...
      I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. Many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.

      It's an experiment in progress.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 12, 2019, 08:25:33 pm
      Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...
      I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. I don't see any horror stories on the local Ford forum. Besides that many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.
      I think you mean many people drive largely around town, and never get up to speed. This causes problems for the DPF in diesels, and car makers tell people clears that the car needs frequent highway runs to clear the filter. Ford just sold the Ecoboost engines as general purpose engines. Its turning into a financial disaster for Ford, with all the compensation for fires and the recalls. You have an interesting concept of reliable.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: dzseki on February 12, 2019, 08:43:57 pm
      One way or an other, car manufacturers let that be ICE or EV, want YOU to buy new car frequently, and they do more and more to force this.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: orion242 on February 12, 2019, 08:45:19 pm
      Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

      As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
      The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

      Just a quick check on kelly blue book for 2011 Nisson leaf and it appeared your correct.  Seem to go for $7-10K in the listings at the bottom of the page.

      https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150 (https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150)

      Looking a bit closer...these things have like 20-40K miles.  Highest millage was just over 50K.  Seven year old cars and most <40K miles?!?  That's 1/3 the national average of 15K/year.  That's just the 11 cars within 150mi of me.

      Too early to tell, but that 5 min look into KBB smells a bit off if that's the resale numbers being used.  These things have been parked for most their life.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 12, 2019, 08:54:09 pm
      Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

      As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
      The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

      Just a quick check on kelly blue book for 2011 Nisson leaf and it appeared your correct.  Seem to go for $7-10K in the listings at the bottom of the page.

      https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150 (https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150)

      Looking a bit closer...these things have like 20-40K miles.  Highest millage was just over 50K.  Seven year old cars and most <40K miles?!?  That's 1/3 the national average of 15K/year.  That's just the 11 cars within 150mi of me.

      Too early to tell, but that 5 min look into KBB smells a bit off if that's the resale numbers being used.  These things have been parked for most their life.
      Remember that the Leaf has limited range. A lot of buyers are probably people who mostly make short journeys, and are way below the national average for annual mileage.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 12, 2019, 08:59:34 pm
      Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...
      I don't see why not. The 1.0l Ecoboost from Ford seems to be pretty reliable. I don't see any horror stories on the local Ford forum. Besides that many people drive too slow which causes the engine to built up dirt inside. A small engine which has to work every now and then doesn't have that problem.
      I think you mean many people drive largely around town, and never get up to speed. This causes problems for the DPF in diesels, and car makers tell people clears that the car needs frequent highway runs to clear the filter. Ford just sold the Ecoboost engines as general purpose engines. Its turning into a financial disaster for Ford, with all the compensation for fires and the recalls. You have an interesting concept of reliable.
      I'm unaware of fires. There has been a recall for fixing the cooling system of the Ecoboost engines. AFAIK the resulting damages have been repaired for free. Every new car model has teething issues so nothing out of the ordinary there. Just be sure not to buy a new car model and you'll be fine. One of the advantages of buying used cars is that you can research common problems.

      BTW driving short distances is also not good for petrol cars. For example: the piston seals can seize up causing high oil consumption.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 12, 2019, 09:07:20 pm
      Current generation EVs are getting close to being 10 years old so we will have some data points soon.

      As for the value of a used EV that's 6-8 years old they appear to be on par with ICE.  (Granted this is a small sample size and in the US/California.)
      The real data is going to come in over the next two years.  Should be interesting.

      Just a quick check on kelly blue book for 2011 Nisson leaf and it appeared your correct.  Seem to go for $7-10K in the listings at the bottom of the page.

      https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150 (https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/cars/used-cars/nissan/leaf/?vehicleid=352716&year=2011-2013&distance=150)

      Looking a bit closer...these things have like 20-40K miles.  Highest millage was just over 50K.  Seven year old cars and most <40K miles?!?  That's 1/3 the national average of 15K/year.  That's just the 11 cars within 150mi of me.

      Too early to tell, but that 5 min look into KBB smells a bit off if that's the resale numbers being used.  These things have been parked for most their life.
      Depends where you live...
      With a co-worker we were looking for a decent 2013 Leaf in the Nederland, and they were all way too expensive...
      He needed a car for school runs, shopping, wife going to uni and going to the parents on Sundays, so the range is more than sufficient.
      From where he lives the closest cheap petrol station is very inconveniently situated, so he was hoping to avoid ever getting a tank.
      Anyhow, he got a small Honda Hybrid, still good on the tax front, but not what he wanted.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 12, 2019, 09:18:26 pm

      BTW driving short distances is also not good for petrol cars. For example: the piston seals can seize up causing high oil consumption.

      This is exactly why you don't want to driving around in an old car.  Modern cars do not have this issue.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 13, 2019, 12:37:10 am
      Look at that, electric cars are cheaper to buy/operate... including the Netherlands...
      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study)

      Yes, Look at that, Another media article held out as proof of something done by a biased organisation that do not show how their figures were derived.
      Worth less than the electrons used to publish it.
      Show me the numbers and calculations if these reports are to be believed.  They could say anything if you cherry pick the conclusions.
      Maybe EV's are cheaper to run in Europe but because they are not here and I have to the calcs, I'll need to see their numbers to be convinced of that.

      It's not automatically dismissing something I don't want to believe, it's a case of not providing enough info to prove I might be wrong.

      I have crunched the numbers before and just in running costs to travel  any distance over 1500 Km which is where the free charging amount ran out, the tesla WAS more expensive.  Maybe they saw where I had shown that on various forums. They seem to have taken their cost Milage comparison off the site now.
      Was pretty obvious. using their figures which were surprisingly accurate as to fuel and electricity costs here, once you took away the free charge factor or calculated on the 2nd 1500 KM, they came out more exy.

      Of course that dosent take into account the cost and repayments/ interest of a $120K car here as against a very comparable ICE you could get for half that or less.
      $60 K still buys a lot of fuel and servicing.

      I was reading yesterday where some in the industry are saying that EV's will achieve price parity with ICE's by 2025.
      We'll wait and see if that comes off, sounds like complete and utter BS to me but in any case, it just means the EV you buy today is going to loose a shipload of resale value in 5 years time which would be another factor to enter in to the equation and a damn good reason not to rush into an EV for a while yet.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 13, 2019, 12:52:44 am
      I think the gubbermints as you say want to try to force us to trash all our ICEs asap and buy again new cars everybody. That's lots in taxes and fees and macro economy figures which is good for them and bad for us and our pockets.

      That is it.

      Keep the money going round so you can siphon off as much as possible ever circuit and then pass the debt onto the next lot of snakes in Gubbermint for them to sort out and answer where do the money go.

      It's going to be a HUGE cash cow .... maybe.

      One other thing not often taken into account, the oil industry.
      I can't see these Sheiks and Billionaires letting their gravy train go dry and crusty, they WILL fight back.
      The way I see them doing it is LOWERING  the cost of fuel.  It's largely artificially inflated now.  They drop the cost and the price of fuel goes down and the EV's wont be as attractive as they are pushing.

      The flip side of that is Gubbermints will counter with higher taxes but maybe that won't be so easy in the case of france if not other places.  helping the oil industry will be the rising cost of power.  Despite the green do gooders endless claims of RE making power cheaper, that has been demonstrably  proven to be completely false and  LIE  around the world so far.  Now way it's going to get cheaper for a long time yet if ever with teh capital investment costs to be recovered for a start.

      If EV's loose their kingpin pspin doctored advantage of being cheaper to run, a lot of people are going to stick with what they know. They won't want to risk running out of power on longer journeys with no where to recharge, they won't want to have to sit round waiting every few hours, They won't even consider an EV if they want to tow anything.....

      There are a lot of factors in the success of this EV change over but I see the critical ones as being the cost of oil and power.
      One has the potential to go down very easily, the other can only go up for a while to come yet. That is surely going to happen as demand for power which is in short supply in a lot of places now becomes even greater through natural growth and the added loads of the EV fleet.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 13, 2019, 01:15:29 am
      Was thinking along the same lines after hearing these nuts talk about powering buildings with EVs

      That aside.  I own said battery pack and its got a limited number of cycles and the most expensive component to replace.  What incentive is there for me to sign up for this nonsense and wear the piss out of my battery?

      This is another example of the green washed going overboard with crap in their gut busting efforts to shove this down everyones throats.

      They say if you can't charge at home, there will be places to charge at work. OK.
      Then they say the power in the cars could power the building.  WTF?
      Again they are trying to defy physics in using the power twice.  You can't recharge AND use the power at the same time, not if you want anything left at the end that is!

      So you go home on a limited charge and have to charge up to get back to work.  You plug in and where will the power come from? No solar input at night so you are left with the pissy amount of wind in most places. OK if you are in Norway where they are 100% hydro but that's a one off pretty much. the rest of the wold is still 80% Coal so what have you achieved... other than to make the off peak periods now the Peak pricing if nothing else.  Still going to be big demand but a much less available supply from solar.

      These green religion preachers need to get their stories straight and put a bit of logic into them. They are laughably flawed and stupid.  Instead of convincing anyone with a brain to their side they just annoy them with the idiot suggestions and ideals they come out with.

      One thing on the battery packs I have had on my mind for some time and that's their longevity.
      Tesla for instance uses 18650 form factor and from what I can find, a VERY close chemistry to all other 18650s that are used  in laptops, power tools etc.
      What gets me is how in the hell they are getting decent life out the things? I never had a laptop or a power tool where the battery wasn't degraded after 3-4 years whether the thing was used daily or spend 99% of it's time on float charge because the machine was plugged into the mains.

      Much the same is true for Lipo's. They are light weight, have excellent power characteristics BUT, they are not particularly long lived.
      The aim/ expectation of most people I would believe would be a 10 year life so how in the hell are these batteries going to survive that long or at least, have anything like a respectable range left?

      The Early teslas are getting on in age now and it would be interesting to know, as Tesla surely do with their unbelievably invasive big brother connection to all their vehicles, how much deterioration has taken place in their battery packs. Knowing tesla and what is at stake for them atm. I can see them  contacting the owners and saying they are due for a service and changing the packs without saying a thing.  The cost would far outweight the detriment  of it getting out that the packs die in the arse in 6-7 years.  If I were CEO of a company like Tesla, that's what I'd be telling them to do.

      There will come a point however where the potential neg publicity no longer matters as everyone is the same or there is enough market share so it will be screw the customer and her's a $10 K bill.

      There are plenty of Priarses that have falling over battery packs now and the prices of them here are in the order of $1500 for a used 7 Kwh pack.  What's a new 60 or 80 Kw pack going to cost?

      Oh yeah, that's right, these battery packs are going to get cheap as chips arent they when everyone is using them.
      Huge demand for a limited supply product that manufacturing will struggle to keep up with for years despite new ( filthy pollouting ) mines and production lines.
      Yes, that is normally the way things fall drastically in price.
      If there is not enough demand and production of batteries already, there is never going to be enough to cause prices to fall.  In any case, look at the good old lead acid.  Millions upon millions of the things produced every year for vehicles alone not to mention industrial uses and they have been making them by the million if not billion for decades!
       Do  batteries for your vehicle get cheaper every time you go buy one or have they gone up in the 3/5/8 years since you bought the last one? Here they are pretty much double the price they were 10 years ago.

      If qty production made them cheaper, they would be paying you to take them away by now.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 13, 2019, 01:29:31 am
      Here in europe the trend with new ICE cars to have small turbo engines like 1.0 l putting out 100+ hp. Now tell me these engines will last long (10+years) without major overhaul...

      I don't believe they will in normal use but......
      While they may be a trend, they are not a majority.
      I think you will find a lot of these cars are aimed at a certain market that does generally not do a lot of miles.  That said, My father has 3 Subaru Sherpas with 1L engines that have all done WELL over 100,000km and are closer to 20 years old than 10.  Granted, they are small cars and do about 40 Hp and are NA but realistically, most vehicles use about 20-40 Hp most of the time. The full power is used a very small amount of the time the engine is operating.

      I personally have never believed in the small engine big car idea but metalurgy, design and engine oils have all improved.  At worst, these things have a lot better chance of surviving than they did before.

      Again though, these things are a PART of the market not the total market.  BMW for instance has increased the size of the engine in many of it's models over the years because with fuel injection they can be more economical at lower revs using higher torque than the economy a buzz box running it's arse off can.
      Slower revs, like aircraft , trucks and ships have always used means better longevity.

      My wifes car has over 250K on the little 2L engine in it. yes, I did swap the heads to put on some higher compression ones but the others were fine and this was a desired modification not a necessary requirement. It's well know that these engines will go 400k Km with nothing more than a set of head gaskets to replace the dodgy ones the factory installed . They tend to go about the 150K km mark and once replaced, never have to be touched again.

      I have also personal seen and worked on 2 of these 2L engines that had over 500 K Km and one of them was completely untouched save for the timing belt and pulley being replaced every 100K Km.  Wasn't even a country car, did time in the country and the city, about the same in both judging from the log books and receipts.

      I have doubts about engines that do massive power from small displacement but then again, Bikes have been doing well over 100 HP from 1 litre again for 20 years at least and no trouble getting them to 100K Km or 10 years.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 13, 2019, 01:46:18 am

      BTW driving short distances is also not good for petrol cars. For example: the piston seals can seize up causing high oil consumption.



      The piston Seals???   :-DD
      Really?

      Where, where, WHERE do you get this idiotic garbage from?   |O

      Do you make it up or are you just so clueless you don't even know what piston rings are? Please stop talking about things you have less than no idea about. it's embarrassing to read as well as frustrating. have you no self pride, no dignity? Do you enjoy people laughing at you and making such a fool of yourself.
      Please stop. Just STOP.  you bring down the credibility of this forum as well as having demolished and form of respect anyone could have for anything you dribble out.

      In any case, again that's pure and utter garbage but please provide factual evidence that what you say is Correct like you demand off everyone else.

      Unless you were driving your car round the block and never gave it an oil change, you would Never cause the rings to stick on any car made and running on any fuel produced in the last 20 years at least. Aside from that, everyone that knows about cars clearly knew that in the day it was not the rings that stuck or got carbon deposits it was  always the conrod valves due to the old type oils having a high ash content which never fully burned off due to the engine not reaching proper temp due to the short drives.

      At least do your homework and have SOME idea what you are talking about.
      That's the thing with these discussions, if you get over trying to push a point and always be right, you can be inspired to look things up and learn things.
      Try it some time, I guarantee it will help you with your 5th grade studies a lot.

      Do you have ANY clue how the internal combustion engine works and what the engine computer monitors  and the controls it has over the engine?
      Why am I even asking.  you wouldn't know how the engine in a lawn mower works much less have the ability to fix it but you still come up with all this moronic garbage as if it's a real thing.

      Please go away and stop embarrassing us all or YOU provide the "scientific" reports you want others to provide to back up your garbage assertions. 
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: orion242 on February 13, 2019, 02:31:03 am
      So you go home on a limited charge and have to charge up to get back to work. 

      And then piss your charge back into the building.  In a nutshell your exporting your energy to the building and wearing the shit out of your battery in the process.  I get pay for the power that my employer is using?!?

      They Must be in another dimension apparently because none of that's is flying in mine.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: orion242 on February 13, 2019, 02:45:29 am
      Remember that the Leaf has limited range. A lot of buyers are probably people who mostly make short journeys, and are way below the national average for annual mileage.

      Outside of the roadster which is silly expensive, it seems most EVs from early 2010 had squat for range.  As already pointed out...the experiment is still on.  I couldn't find anything that's even close to a 10yrs old for resale values that's been driven like a standard ICE.  15K/yr national average.  After looking at the Leaf, it seems to be a status symbol / feel good buy more than anything.  If your only driving 20K miles in 7 years, which most of them where... get a bike, walk to work, carpool, or scooter if you really want to save the world.  That was just the first EV I could think of that's been around for a while.  Looking at some of the other 2011 options, you cannot even get a KBB resale price on them.  Is that because they didn't sell well?  Is that because they all have been scrapped?  Who knows.

      There is simply little, if any, real data on 10yr old EVs driven like an average ICE.  Even then, typical life span of a ICE is 11yrs per DOT.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 13, 2019, 04:18:37 am

      And then piss your charge back into the building.  In a nutshell your exporting your energy to the building and wearing the shit out of your battery in the process.  I get pay for the power that my employer is using?!?

      In fairness, I think a lot of these ideas/ suggestions are dreampt up by muppets and numptys that are hell bent on pushing the cause and desperate to make things sound as wonderful as possible even if they loose touch and start saying ridiculous thing.  We have one such example right in our Midst here.

      the question is, how many out there are dumb enough to fall for it?
      Unfortunately I think the answer to that would be " A frightening amount".
      It's like the people that buy home batteries like power wallys. They make NO sense at all from an economic, practical , environmental  or another POV the world over.  Still, people buy them to be trendy or think they are doing some good mental masturbation of some sort that escapes me.
      They believe the hype and clearly have more dollars than sense and spend fortunes on the things.

      I think the same will happen with EV's. Big bunrush to get the latest and greatest and bow to peer pressure to a degree and then discover they aren't all they were cracked up to be and little has changed and none for the better.

      I wonder if this happened to an appreciable extent with the EV's you are looking at for resale values?  They were bought thinking they would be this or that or eliminate whatever problem that was on the mind of the purchaser and then reality of ownership came crashing down and they were dissapointed with the things so didn't drive them much. Maybe kept using an older or other car and let the battery powered toy sit in the shed?
      Maybe the range wasn't enough, maybe the constant need to charge was annoying, maybe they even ran out of power and got stranded some time and that put the wind up them?
      Maybe as you say they just didn't need a car in the first place.

      One thing is interesting though, a BIG thing amoung the EV lovers and Pushers is the average journey is only xx miles so the ev's have more than enough to drive you to work and back. If people DID use them for this, wouldn't they rack up some decent miles?
      30 Km day x 48 weeks is 7200 Km which isn't a lot but it's a lot more than the type of numbers these EV's typicaly have. Add in some running round on the weekends etc....   Should be pushing 9K km year easy. 9 yo vehicle, 81K km.

      The problem here is, If you you are only doing 30km to work and back every day, You could be driving a mack truck and the fuel expense is not going to be that large. Certainly not enough to make an EV worth 3/4/5x what a comparable ICE could be had for a worthwhile investment to say $20 a week, if that, on Petrol.
      I think most people would Buy a $5k car for the 15 Min to work and back and be happy with that. Buy the right $5k car and you could be spending $10 a week on juice with the mileage some of those little  diesels get.

      Getting people to change, especially from what they have always known is a big task. Getting them to change with something that is their 2nd biggest investment and is new and uncertain technology is an even bigger hurdle.
      I wonder if this basic  human behavior will limit the sales of EV's far more than they anticipate despite all the hype and razzamatazz.

      Got to say, the one I drove for a week wouldn't motivate me to change.  Still too much the same that the power plant of a vehicle makes no different to in every day real world conditions.
      Maybe this has been a factor in low ev mileage as well. Traffic jams were still there, parking was still difficult and expensive, roads still shithouse, bad drivers still out there.... 

      An Ev changes one thing only, how you fuel it. All the rest is the same, till you want to go for a decent trip that is.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on February 13, 2019, 06:14:06 am
      Plugging in at home is a lot more convenient than having to stop by a gas station. But plug in hybrids also give you that for the daily commute without giving up anything regarding long distance.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 13, 2019, 07:52:46 am

      BTW driving short distances is also not good for petrol cars. For example: the piston seals can seize up causing high oil consumption.



      The piston Seals???   :-DD
      Really?
      Yes. Seized piston seals seems to be a problem sometimes found on certain Ford models driving around in the NL. At least so I have been told by a mechanic who specialises in Ford cars. Remember the Netherlands is mostly flat so car engines don't have to do much work. This gives specific problems with engines building up dirt inside you don't see very often in countries where cars have to drive up a steep hill every now and then.

      And actually I know quite a bit about cars. The last two I bought had problems even the dealer couldn't fix. I got them both running right again.

      Your personal attacks don't serve any purpose at all. This is an engineering forum so numbers talk and the rest just walks.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 13, 2019, 09:25:53 am
      On an otherwise healthy engine, gummed up oil rings indicated high load with low rpm with short running time. In extreme cases, it is due to blow-by, but that needs high boost/compression and/or driving like a loon/racing driver - that should not be the case here..
      But (thinking aloud here), the lube oil would have be pretty worn out for the oil ring to foul before getting carbon buildup on the exhaust valve(s) (high load low rpm should be a rich situation on a gasoline engine).

      As an aside, if a car is run exclusively in town (short distances, stop and go etc) if the oil change is set at 10000km, it better to do it at around 7 to 8000km.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 13, 2019, 09:28:28 am

      Yes. Seized piston seals

      Well you got me and i learned something.

      I thought maybe piston seals were a nomenclature used for rings in other parts of the world. you prompted my to google the term to see if I could find if anyone called Rings , " Piston seal"s?

      NOPE! That's just another figment of your imagination. But you got me too look. Should have known.
       I can find no such reference in automotive terminology in any region so just more flawed waffle and ignorance on your part.

      Quote
      At least so I have been told by a mechanic who specialises in Ford cars.

      I very much doubt that's what he said. In fact i'd be sure he said no such thing.

      Quote
      Remember the Netherlands is mostly flat so car engines don't have to do much work. This gives specific problems with engines building up dirt inside you don't see very often in countries where cars have to drive up a steep hill every now and then.

      Nope, makes no difference. More invented excuses and attempts at face saving once again. All you would need to do now and then is put your foot down at the lights or accelerate when getting onto a highway or cruising along it.  Same thing as far as engine loading goes.  There is no physical or mechanical reason for engines to carbon up because they are running relatively low power, certainly not since the days of Fuel injection.
      I have NEVER heard of a petrol engine unless it was old and completely shot to foul Rings.  Diesels however can do it at low power but that's nothing like what you are talking about.

      I run veg oil in my 4Wd and I have the injector pump turned way up so the thing runs like a scalded cat.  Because I run veg oil which does not burn as clean as Diesel and in fact will leave carbon and ash deposits Diesel does not, Sticking the rings with Carbon that bakes rock hard is a potential issue.
      To combat that, I run a home grown water injection system.  The steam effect and the Phase change from a liquid to a gas creates cavitation which creates basically mini explosions that will displace carbon deposits but not affect the metal in the engine.  This keeps the engine clean and any deposits blown out the exhaust. I also run Methanol in the water at times for much more power and it seems to have the benifit of a better cleaning effect.  I don't believe it's in teh engine, I tend to think it may be in the exhaust and passages in the muffler.  the effect lasts a bit after all the Meth has gone but slowly comes back unless the WI is turned right up to the point there is more water being used that oil fuel.

      BTW, that is all fact, nothing to catch you out there, that's too easy anyway.

      Using veg oil is a big thing in Europe and there are conversion kits  to run a lot of cars on oil. Being such a big believer in biofuels, I an only onder why you are not doing this if you are truly as commited to them as you make out.  I can't see anyone  that was a real believer running a petrol car when there is so much info and help available where you are to run Veg oil and some of the most knowledgeable people in the world on the subject are on your door step.
      Curious. Very Curious.

      I believe the Netherlands is a fairly wet, cool country with high humidity so in effect, vehicles would get a decent water injection treatment anyway which would further make the idea of petrol engines gumming rings even more unlikely.  It could only happen in a very rich condition where the engine was burning the fuel poorly which the computer would sense and pull back on the injections rates for emission as well as best engine operation.

      Quote
      And actually I know quite a bit about cars. The last two I bought had problems even the dealer couldn't fix. I got them both running right again.

      No, mate, not even close. You clearly don't know the most basic things about cars or engines or a lot else. That is something you have well proven beyond all shadow of doubt. Had you any idea, you would have jumped on another one I gave you which I really thought was so obvious,
      Aside from that, everyone that knows about cars clearly knew that in the day it was not the rings that stuck or got carbon deposits it was  always the conrod valves due to the old type oils having a high ash content which never fully burned off due to the engine not reaching proper temp due to the short drives.
       
      no one with any mechanical knowledge could miss it.

      Conrod Valves!   :-DD

      You had no idea that was a made up nonsense but you want to tell me you know a lot about cars and fixed something trained mechanics at a dealership couldn't???
      I doubt you could change a spark plug or oil.  And that's OK, not everyone can know everything about everything but it becomes not ok when you try to pretend you do know things and make really basic mistakes that show you up to be full of it and when you just keep digging yourself in deeper.  Enough already.

      Please stop.  PLEASE!  Don't you have any shame or dignity?  You are making yourself look beyond ridiculous. Completely stupid in fact. It's just embarrassing for everyone.
      Just sit back, try to take things in and learn. If you have the overwhelming urge to say something, quadruple check anything and everything before you post it. You'll most likely learn a lot just from that as well. 
      Maybe if you took a step down off the high horse and ASKED some questions, people might even help you if you didn't come across as a know it all git and just alienated people.

      Forums are a wonderful thing and you can learn so much if only you know when to shut the hell up and ask about what you don't know or just read and clue yourself in.

      I really hope you'll give it a try and come at things from a different approach. It will benifit you and might benifit the rest of us as well.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 13, 2019, 09:46:03 am

      Yes. Seized piston seals

      Well you got me and i learned something.

      I thought maybe piston seals were a nomenclature used for rings in other parts of the world. you prompted my to google the term to see if I could find if anyone called Rings , " Piston seal"s?
      You got me. English is not my native language... but if the right term is 'piston rings' then I learned something. Still piston seals put you on the right track so my message did come across.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 13, 2019, 10:24:14 am
       George80, you do not have exclusive knowledge of all engines, in all situations, all over the world.
      I specialise in large marine engines, but I have show car dealers how to fix my own vehicles a couple of times too, as the mechanics where following the procedures a bit too much to the letter.
      (On company cars, as I’m not allowed to wrench on them, but I don’t want to leave the car for 3 days to fix bad contact in a connector, for example, so I take my Leatherman out, do the job and ask them to reset the engine light).

      A piston seal usually implies an O-ring on a hydraulic system but English also not being my momspeak, I understood what was meant.

      The sort of build up that was spoken of does exist, I was offered a side-gig by a local used car dealer to fix that sort of thing on older VW Golfs and Opels. But the methods used (minimal disassembly, splitting the case, disconnecting the belts, lifting the whole upper  to access the pistons and crank - on the car lot - seemed a bit cowboy to me) and the general lack of safe tools made me run away (I am not squeezing piston rings in by hand from bellow while someone is jiggling the block to make it go down).


      Edit: I am wrong.
      What I assumed I saw is not possible on that Golf engine. I assumed I saw something and I am mistaken.
      The space between the cylinders on that engine (and most engines) is smaller that the width of the plain bearing below it.
      So I probably witnessed a cock up of two idiots lifting the crankcase too high after fitting the cylinders and snapping a ring open below the cylinder.
      I was wrong, I should research stuff more and not trust my eyes as much and, being a mechanic, know better.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fourtytwo42 on February 13, 2019, 10:46:00 am
      The sort of build up that was spoken of does exist, I was offered a side-gig by a local used car dealer to fix that sort of thing on older VW Golfs and Opels. But the methods used (minimal disassembly, splitting the case, disconnecting the belts, lifting the whole upper  to access the pistons and crank - on the car lot - seemed a bit cowboy to me) and the general lack of safe tools made me run away (I am not squeezing piston rings in by hand from bellow while someone is jiggling the block to make it go down).

      This thread is full of horse manure but this one takes the biscuit  :-DD
      I challenge anyone on this earth to reach up inside an engine via the crankcase with the head in place and replace a piston ring (on a car engine)!

      This thread has actually made me dismiss this site as full of immature, idiotic armchair protagonists with mostly no idea of what they are talking about so little point in having or expecting to find any serious meaningful discussion here.

      Some other sites are a little better but I don't want to name them to avoid the children turning up there too |O
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 13, 2019, 11:38:47 am

       to fix that sort of thing on older VW Golfs and Opels.

      Be specific, How old? Round about date of manufacture?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 13, 2019, 12:17:10 pm
      Golf 3 and 4ish.
      What they were doing should not work, but apparently they do it all the time...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 13, 2019, 12:21:20 pm
      Golf 3 and 4ish.


      Yeah well, that does explain it but the problem was far more a case of a few than a majority.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 13, 2019, 12:34:17 pm
      Just use the proper oil one with enough detergent of the right kind.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 13, 2019, 12:37:28 pm
      The sort of build up that was spoken of does exist, I was offered a side-gig by a local used car dealer to fix that sort of thing on older VW Golfs and Opels. But the methods used (minimal disassembly, splitting the case, disconnecting the belts, lifting the whole upper  to access the pistons and crank - on the car lot - seemed a bit cowboy to me) and the general lack of safe tools made me run away (I am not squeezing piston rings in by hand from bellow while someone is jiggling the block to make it go down).

      This thread is full of horse manure but this one takes the biscuit  :-DD
      I challenge anyone on this earth to reach up inside an engine via the crankcase with the head in place and replace a piston ring (on a car engine)!

      This thread has actually made me dismiss this site as full of immature, idiotic armchair protagonists with mostly no idea of what they are talking about so little point in having or expecting to find any serious meaningful discussion here.

      Some other sites are a little better but I don't want to name them to avoid the children turning up there too |O
      This was obviously after having changed the rings with the upper half of the crankcase and the cylinders off, then they put it back together (sorry if that did not seem clear).
      I did not stay to see how the whole process worked (bit squeamish at seeing people lose fingers). But the crankcase was split wide open, the head minimally disassembled (to get to the studs I imagine) yet still on, and two guys “putting it back together”, one having two hands in between the crankcase halves (might have been holding  a small tool, but it did not look like it) and the other dude shaking it.
      The owner asked me if I could do that, I said “no”.

      Anyhow, this was done to clean the pistons and change the rings to compensate for wear.


      Edit: I am wrong.
      What I assumed I saw is not possible on that Golf engine. I assumed I saw something and I am mistaken.
      The space between the cylinders on that engine (and most engines) is smaller that the width of the plain bearing below it.
      So I probably witnessed a cock up of two idiots lifting the crankcase too high after fitting the cylinders and snapping a ring open below the cylinder.
      I was wrong, I should research stuff more and not trust my eyes as much and, being a mechanic, know better.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 13, 2019, 12:40:09 pm
      Can't change the piston rings without removing the head, it's impossible. Even if you could remove the piston from below, you would not be able to put them back in place from below because the ring compressor needs a flat surface to work.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 13, 2019, 01:23:02 pm
      Can't change the piston rings without removing the head, it's impossible. Even if you could remove the piston from below, you would not be able to put them back in place from below because the ring compressor needs a flat surface to work.
      Yeah I know, how the F they managed beats me.
      Maybe they were stuck?


      Edit: I am wrong.
      What I assumed I saw is not possible on that Golf engine. I assumed I saw something and I am mistaken.
      The space between the cylinders on that engine (and most engines) is smaller that the width of the plain bearing below it.
      So I probably witnessed a cock up of two idiots lifting the crankcase too high after fitting the cylinders and snapping a ring open below the cylinder.
      I was wrong, I should research stuff more and not trust my eyes as much and, being a mechanic, know better.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 13, 2019, 01:42:54 pm
      Can't change the piston rings without removing the head, it's impossible. Even if you could remove the piston from below, you would not be able to put them back in place from below because the ring compressor needs a flat surface to work.
      Whilst that is the usual practice, don't some racing engines have a single piece head and body? They must have a method for getting the pistons in from below.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 13, 2019, 03:22:28 pm
      The sort of build up that was spoken of does exist, I was offered a side-gig by a local used car dealer to fix that sort of thing on older VW Golfs and Opels. But the methods used (minimal disassembly, splitting the case, disconnecting the belts, lifting the whole upper  to access the pistons and crank - on the car lot - seemed a bit cowboy to me) and the general lack of safe tools made me run away (I am not squeezing piston rings in by hand from bellow while someone is jiggling the block to make it go down).

      This thread is full of horse manure but this one takes the biscuit  :-DD
      I challenge anyone on this earth to reach up inside an engine via the crankcase with the head in place and replace a piston ring (on a car engine)!

      This thread has actually made me dismiss this site as full of immature, idiotic armchair protagonists with mostly no idea of what they are talking about so little point in having or expecting to find any serious meaningful discussion here.

      Some other sites are a little better but I don't want to name them to avoid the children turning up there too |O

      I agree. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 13, 2019, 05:45:02 pm
      So is the consensus EV cars will continue to become popular with consumers while being no so good for the environment.

      Biofuels and hydrogen powered cars are economical and thermodynamicly never going to happen.

      Man caused climate change which is resulting in the melting of the polar ice caps will be good business for the oil companies.  With the ice sheet gone it will expose vast new oil reserves and price of fossil fuels will drop.

      There are a lot of greenies who beleive anything is possible and feel the laws of physiscs, thermodynamics and chemistry does not apply to them.  They will continue to beleive cars can be powered with the electrolysis of water and CO2 and water in the atmosphere can be converted into automobile fuel economicly.

      Electricty from solar and wind in 50 years will might be able to provide less than 20% of the world’s electricty needs.  We just do’t have the raw resources to produce more.

      Nuclear power while not without issues is far better than all of the other methods we know about and certainly causes far less heath problems for people compared to fossil fuels.  Fossil fuels are responsible for causing the premature death and heath issues for one billion people or about one eighth of the worlds population.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: orion242 on February 13, 2019, 06:45:10 pm
      Man caused climate change which is resulting in the melting of the polar ice caps will be good business for the oil companies.

      Don't forget construction and transportation industries to relocate everyone near a coast.

      Smelling investment opportunities.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 13, 2019, 06:48:01 pm
      But Elon Musk will save us.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on February 13, 2019, 06:54:47 pm
      So is the consensus EV cars will continue to become popular with consumers while being no so good for the environment.
      EVs (both BEV and PHEV) are much better for the environment and climate than ICEs. Of course, how the electricity is produced matters, if you live in a place with 100% coal (or thereabout), then PHEV might be better, but in most places BEVs are better.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 13, 2019, 07:03:13 pm
      So is the consensus EV cars will continue to become popular with consumers while being no so good for the environment.

      I think there will be an initial rush which will quickly taper off, 3-5 years and EV's will never make up more than about 25% of the total vehicle fleet.
      By the time they start getting a real hold, some other tech will come along and replace them.


      Quote
      Biofuels and hydrogen powered cars are economical and thermodynamicly never going to happen.

      Biofuels have been touted for getting on near 20 years and still nothing significant has happened.  Despite what some believe. The increase in production rate would have to be impossibly magnified for them  to become Viable.

      Hydrogen has some upsides but a LOT of downsides. It is not a fuel as such, it's an energy storage medium.  You need to change something to hydrogen, it's not something you can grab out the air or dig out the ground. It has to be converted FF, sunlight or something else to get any commercial qtys that would make a dent in the vehicle fleet.


      Quote
      Man caused climate change which is resulting in the melting of the polar ice caps will be good business for the oil companies.  With the ice sheet gone it will expose vast new oil reserves and price of fossil fuels will drop.

      Globull warming is also good for the planet.  Warmer climates makes tress grow better and increased CO2 is also a help for plant life.  Greenhouses are warmed and have elevated levels of Co2  to promote plant growth. Incredibly the doomsday greenwashed seem to overlook this obvious fact.
        Globull warming will help make the planet green and the melting ice caps will mean that there is plenty of water to ensure their growth.
      Yep, may loose a few meters of coastal building land but the benifits of having more water further inland and the resulting increase in crop production will be more than worth it and be better for mankind and much better for greening our planet and the Flora and Fauna.


      Quote
      There are a lot of greenies who beleive anything is possible and feel the laws of physiscs, thermodynamics and chemistry does not apply to them.  They will continue to beleive cars can be powered with the electrolysis of water and CO2 and water in the atmosphere can be converted into automobile fuel economicly.

      These people have empty lives and need hope and something to believe in for the future so they can believe there is something to look forward to in their lives and things will get better than the lot they have now.
      It would be interesting to see a comparison between those that are religious and believe in the green faith as well as compared to the population averages.

      Quote
      Electricty from solar and wind in 50 years will might be able to provide less than 20% of the world’s electricty needs.  We just do’t have the raw resources to produce more.

      Those members of the green church argue that only small tracts of land are needed to power the world.  Musk, the greatest Cult leader of all eternity, Said something to the effect of 400 Km sq of panels could power the world.  That's nice but if it's that simple, raises 2 questions for me:
      1. Why is the world not solar powered already then?
      2.  What happens when the sun goes down in the evening?

      Those that preach the green gospel have both a penchant for over exaggeration and over simplification. Whatever best suits the fairy tale they are trying to convince people of at the time.


      Quote
      Nuclear power while not without issues is far better than all of the other methods we know about and certainly causes far less heath problems for people compared to fossil fuels.  Fossil fuels are responsible for causing the premature death and heath issues for one billion people or about one eighth of the worlds population.

      can't say I am at all for nuke power. It is simply too powerful and dangerous to be entrusted to mankind.
      The accidents that have occoured have all been the fault of the clowns running the facilities rather than the tech itself... which isn't great but hasn't been the problem.

      The REAL problem is human nature, specifically greed. Corners are cut, procedures compromised and stupid things done just to save a buck.
      Japan case in point. What moron would locate backup generators in the first place that would be hit in a tidal wave prone area instead of putting them higher up and in a more fortified structure?

      As for the amount of people dying.... I think that's very had to clarify no matter what vested interest says it. Once could also say how many people live through the wide range of benifits oil provides?

      In any case, I think the idea of anything killing so many people a year is kind of a moot point.  If we stopped all these people dying from all the statistics attributed to different things, the world would go into melt down trying to support all these extra people and the explosive population growth in a couple of years.
      If we want to stop people dying, first we might have to slow down the rate at which they are born.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 13, 2019, 09:07:36 pm
      Edit on my Golf engine claims in the previous page:

      I am wrong.
      What I assumed I saw is not possible on that Golf engine. I assumed I saw something and I am mistaken.
      The space between the cylinders on that engine (and most engines) is smaller that the width of the plain bearing below it (and I know that).
      So I probably witnessed a cock up of two idiots lifting the crankcase too high after fitting the pistons and snapping a ring open below the cylinder and sweating big ones realising that they F'd up.
      I was wrong, I should research stuff more and not trust my eyes as much and, being a mechanic, know better.

      Sorry about that, I feel like a right fool.

      Back to our usual programming.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 13, 2019, 09:24:35 pm
      Edit on my Golf engine claims in the previous page:

      I am wrong.
      What I assumed I saw is not possible on that Golf engine. I assumed I saw something and I am mistaken.
      The space between the cylinders on that engine (and most engines) is smaller that the width of the plain bearing below it (and I know that).
      So I probably witnessed a cock up of two idiots lifting the crankcase too high after fitting the cylinders and snapping a ring open below the cylinder and sweating big ones realising that they F'd up.
      I was wrong, I should research stuff more and not trust my eyes as much and, being a mechanic, know better.

      Sorry about that, I feel like a right fool.

      Back to our usual programming.

      Don't feel like a fool, you are a true scientist.  The world needs more people like you.  You had a hypothesis, were challenged about it, tested it, realized you were wrong and publicly stated your findings.  Nothing wrong with that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 14, 2019, 01:56:49 am
      So is the consensus EV cars will continue to become popular with consumers while being no so good for the environment.

      Biofuels and hydrogen powered cars are economical and thermodynamicly never going to happen.

      Man caused climate change which is resulting in the melting of the polar ice caps will be good business for the oil companies.  With the ice sheet gone it will expose vast new oil reserves and price of fossil fuels will drop.

      There are a lot of greenies who beleive anything is possible and feel the laws of physiscs, thermodynamics and chemistry does not apply to them.  They will continue to beleive cars can be powered with the electrolysis of water and CO2 and water in the atmosphere can be converted into automobile fuel economicly.

      Electricty from solar and wind in 50 years will might be able to provide less than 20% of the world’s electricty needs.  We just do’t have the raw resources to produce more.

      Nuclear power while not without issues is far better than all of the other methods we know about and certainly causes far less heath problems for people compared to fossil fuels.  Fossil fuels are responsible for causing the premature death and heath issues for one billion people or about one eighth of the worlds population.
      Sure
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on February 14, 2019, 10:54:30 am

      BTW driving short distances is also not good for petrol cars. For example: the piston seals can seize up causing high oil consumption.



      The piston Seals???   :-DD
      Really?

      Where, where, WHERE do you get this idiotic garbage from?   |O

      Do you make it up or are you just so clueless you don't even know what piston rings are? Please stop talking about things you have less than no idea about. it's embarrassing to read as well as frustrating. have you no self pride, no dignity? Do you enjoy people laughing at you and making such a fool of yourself.
      Please stop. Just STOP.  you bring down the credibility of this forum as well as having demolished and form of respect anyone could have for anything you dribble out.

      In any case, again that's pure and utter garbage but please provide factual evidence that what you say is Correct like you demand off everyone else.

      Unless you were driving your car round the block and never gave it an oil change, you would Never cause the rings to stick on any car made and running on any fuel produced in the last 20 years at least. Aside from that, everyone that knows about cars clearly knew that in the day it was not the rings that stuck or got carbon deposits it was  always the conrod valves due to the old type oils having a high ash content which never fully burned off due to the engine not reaching proper temp due to the short drives.

      What the hell is a conrod valve?
      The "conrods" (connecting  rods) are the things that connect the pistons to the crankshaft--- there are no valves associated with them.

      The things that let the unburned mixture in and the exhaust out are sometimes known as "poppet" valves, although that is pretty archaic terminology.
      They are in turn usually operated by "rocker arms" operated either directly from a camshaft or via "pushrods" (Is that the word you were looking for?)
      Quote

      At least do your homework and have SOME idea what you are talking about.

      Oh my God!
      This gets better & better!  :palm:
      Quote
      That's the thing with these discussions, if you get over trying to push a point and always be right, you can be inspired to look things up and learn things.
      Try it some time, I guarantee it will help you with your 5th grade studies a lot.

      Do you have ANY clue how the internal combustion engine works
      And better!  :palm::palm: :palm:
      Quote
      and what the engine computer monitors  and the controls it has over the engine?
      Why am I even asking.  you wouldn't know how the engine in a lawn mower works much less have the ability to fix it but you still come up with all this moronic garbage as if it's a real thing.

      Please go away and stop embarrassing us all or YOU provide the "scientific" reports you want others to provide to back up your garbage assertions.

      A suggestion, Sonny!
      If you are going to act the Guru, check you are using the right terminology, otherwise those older & wiser may have to correct your ramblings.

      PS:- After digging through your voluminous verbiage, I discovered that your "conrod valves" remark was
      a "deliberate mistake", so I thought about  removing this posting, but, as your posting was to allow you to
      feel good by making someone else feel bad, I decided to leave it in its entirety.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 14, 2019, 11:58:49 am
      as your posting was to allow you to
      feel good by making someone else feel bad, I decided to leave it in its entirety.

      I posted it to show the hypocrisy of someones claims. It worked.
      Twice in fact and better than I expected!

      I'm glad you left it . Gave me a good laugh at the indignation of your reply and grandstanding.
      It certainly did get better and better and more laughable as you went on. 
      Please continue.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on February 14, 2019, 12:58:44 pm
      as your posting was to allow you to
      feel good by making someone else feel bad, I decided to leave it in its entirety.

      I posted it to show the hypocrisy of someones claims. It worked.
      Twice in fact and better than I expected!

      I'm glad you left it . Gave me a good laugh at the indignation of your reply and grandstanding.
      It certainly did get better and better and more laughable as you went on. 
      Please continue.

      This, from the grandstanding king!

      I took it, as anyone else would, at face value, which was that you were talking crap!
      You certainly do not inspire confidence in your competency, when you can't make a simple posting without calling people names, using stupid terms like "greenwashed" & "gubbermint".

      You could have expressed the sensible components (& indeed, there were some, amongst the dross) of all your long, drawn out posts in a couple of paragraphs, but that wouldn't allow you to show off your feelings of superiority!

      I & others have had "run ins" with nctnico on this thread, but no one showed the naked aggression you exhibit.

      Perhaps you should start to behave a bit less like a five year old!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 15, 2019, 02:58:14 am
      as your posting was to allow you to
      feel good by making someone else feel bad, I decided to leave it in its entirety.

      I posted it to show the hypocrisy of someones claims. It worked.
      Twice in fact and better than I expected!

      I'm glad you left it . Gave me a good laugh at the indignation of your reply and grandstanding.
      It certainly did get better and better and more laughable as you went on. 
      Please continue.

      This, from the grandstanding king!

      I took it, as anyone else would, at face value, which was that you were talking crap!
      You certainly do not inspire confidence in your competency, when you can't make a simple posting without calling people names, using stupid terms like "greenwashed" & "gubbermint".

      You could have expressed the sensible components (& indeed, there were some, amongst the dross) of all your long, drawn out posts in a couple of paragraphs, but that wouldn't allow you to show off your feelings of superiority!

      I & others have had "run ins" with nctnico on this thread, but no one showed the naked aggression you exhibit.

      Perhaps you should start to behave a bit less like a five year old!
      You guys should start your own thread. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 15, 2019, 05:25:01 am
      as your posting was to allow you to
      feel good by making someone else feel bad, I decided to leave it in its entirety.

      I posted it to show the hypocrisy of someones claims. It worked.
      Twice in fact and better than I expected!

      I'm glad you left it . Gave me a good laugh at the indignation of your reply and grandstanding.
      It certainly did get better and better and more laughable as you went on. 
      Please continue.

      This, from the grandstanding king!

      I took it, as anyone else would, at face value, which was that you were talking crap!
      You certainly do not inspire confidence in your competency, when you can't make a simple posting without calling people names, using stupid terms like "greenwashed" & "gubbermint".

      You could have expressed the sensible components (& indeed, there were some, amongst the dross) of all your long, drawn out posts in a couple of paragraphs, but that wouldn't allow you to show off your feelings of superiority!

      I & others have had "run ins" with nctnico on this thread, but no one showed the naked aggression you exhibit.

      Perhaps you should start to behave a bit less like a five year old!
      You guys should start your own thread.
      Yup, to quote the poet; “get a room”.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fourtytwo42 on February 15, 2019, 08:57:14 am
      as your posting was to allow you to
      feel good by making someone else feel bad, I decided to leave it in its entirety.

      I posted it to show the hypocrisy of someones claims. It worked.
      Twice in fact and better than I expected!

      I'm glad you left it . Gave me a good laugh at the indignation of your reply and grandstanding.
      It certainly did get better and better and more laughable as you went on. 
      Please continue.

      This, from the grandstanding king!

      I took it, as anyone else would, at face value, which was that you were talking crap!
      You certainly do not inspire confidence in your competency, when you can't make a simple posting without calling people names, using stupid terms like "greenwashed" & "gubbermint".

      You could have expressed the sensible components (& indeed, there were some, amongst the dross) of all your long, drawn out posts in a couple of paragraphs, but that wouldn't allow you to show off your feelings of superiority!

      I & others have had "run ins" with nctnico on this thread, but no one showed the naked aggression you exhibit.

      Perhaps you should start to behave a bit less like a five year old!
      You guys should start your own thread.
      Yup, to quote the poet; “get a room”.

      I do not agree, george8 has done a good job showing up some of the stupid idiotic posters in this thread who simply spread disinformation about things they know nothing about, valves on conrods and replace in situ piston rings being but two examples. I think the mods have done a particularly poor job in regulating this thread and allowing it to degenerate into a farce, they seem to have an attitude whereby renewables is an allowable home for cranks as long as they don't stray into other forums, this being a pity as the renewables forum has now become unusable for it's true purpose whilst this thread remains. Personally I think it should be deleted as a very bad example of what to post in forums.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: vk6zgo on February 15, 2019, 12:03:27 pm
      as your posting was to allow you to
      feel good by making someone else feel bad, I decided to leave it in its entirety.

      I posted it to show the hypocrisy of someones claims. It worked.
      Twice in fact and better than I expected!

      I'm glad you left it . Gave me a good laugh at the indignation of your reply and grandstanding.
      It certainly did get better and better and more laughable as you went on. 
      Please continue.

      This, from the grandstanding king!

      I took it, as anyone else would, at face value, which was that you were talking crap!
      You certainly do not inspire confidence in your competency, when you can't make a simple posting without calling people names, using stupid terms like "greenwashed" & "gubbermint".

      You could have expressed the sensible components (& indeed, there were some, amongst the dross) of all your long, drawn out posts in a couple of paragraphs, but that wouldn't allow you to show off your feelings of superiority!

      I & others have had "run ins" with nctnico on this thread, but no one showed the naked aggression you exhibit.

      Perhaps you should start to behave a bit less like a five year old!
      You guys should start your own thread.
      Yup, to quote the poet; “get a room”.

      I do not agree, george8 has done a good job showing up some of the stupid idiotic posters in this thread who simply spread disinformation about things they know nothing about, valves on conrods and replace in situ piston rings being but two examples. I think the mods have done a particularly poor job in regulating this thread and allowing it to degenerate into a farce, they seem to have an attitude whereby renewables is an allowable home for cranks as long as they don't stray into other forums, this being a pity as the renewables forum has now become unusable for it's true purpose whilst this thread remains. Personally I think it should be deleted as a very bad example of what to post in forums.

      My answer to george80 was because of his (on the face of it), lack of knowledge whilst bashing someone else for the same failing.

      It was only after re-reading several of his long &  voluminous tracts that I found the one where he reveals that his apparent ignorance was a "cunning ruse".

      By then I had posted my answer.
      I contemplated deleting it, but decided to leave it, because he, in common with some of the other posters on this thread, is intensely annoying.

      Instead of making his point in a sensible manner, he goes off into reams of barely relevant crud.(As do the others).

      I've had it!
      There are rational threads I can waste my time on, instead!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 17, 2019, 03:01:29 am
      Is this why farming releases so much CO2.  This is defiantly contributing to man caused climate change. 

      https://youtu.be/WHYN6fizQAI?t=390
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on February 17, 2019, 09:20:39 am
      Offtopic this thread has changed my mind on something.
      I always wanted engineers to play a large role in politics because decisions would IMO then result in a single scientific based result with the best outcome.
      But now I can clearly see that two opposing engineering sides will result in armageddon, I rather have a lot of unscientific people doing that job.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fourtytwo42 on February 17, 2019, 10:24:52 am
      I wouldn't worry on that point, given the rubbish in this thread the number of actual engineers who are contributors must be very small indeed! Unfortunately the thread brings the whole site into disrepute and that is why I suggested the mods delete it, however along with not moderating the junk within there has been no reaction from them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 17, 2019, 11:47:18 am
      Is this why farming releases so much CO2.

      So Much?? What would you propose, we stop agriculture? That will certainty reduce C02 emissions when most of the world population staves to death.


      Quote
      This is defiantly contributing to man caused climate change. 

      So are you in everything you do every day of your life. So what?  We could eliminate all the co2 production and the world would be all happy but unfortunately no one would be left. Kind of a moot point isn't it ?

      I'll guarantee one office block power consumption generates more co2 every single day than a farmer creates in a year.  You car probably generates more CO2in a year than a farmer using a flame weeder as well and remember, those crops absorb Co2 when the are growing so are carbon neutral.


      Not much point eliminating co2 or shutting down farming if we are all going to starve to death and they will be no one left on the planet.

      I'd suggest there are a whole lot more sensible things to target and raise awareness of than complain about c02 emissions from an absolutely essential industry that keeps us all alive.

      Wonder how much Co2 is generated by something Unnessacary like for instance, 4th of july Fireworks.  Around the US there must be hundreds of tons of fireworks releasing massive amounts of Co2.  Maybe questioning that and trying to have fireworks banned as the unnecessary and wasteful Co2 they generate would be a better place to start asking questions.  Then you can move on to other things that are a lot less essential than food production.

      Criticizing co2 from agriculture sounds like a poorly thought out complaint straight out of the Green rabble rousing play book to push the agenda without thinking  the Idea through logically and practically.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 17, 2019, 11:54:36 am
      But now I can clearly see that two opposing engineering sides will result in armageddon, I rather have a lot of unscientific people doing that job.

      I would suggest that if taken from a purely engineering POV there wouldn't be sides opposing each other too much and there would be co operation to do the right thing rather than the cheapest, most profitable or most popular as are the political agendas. When there was disagreement I would bet a lot the compromise would still come up with a far more effective solution that any political outcome.
      I can think of several MAJOR gubbermint initiatives that engineers opposed from the start with good reason that went ahead anyway for political reasons and the engineers proved to be spot on with predictions of problems.

      Politics is a con and a scam played on the worlds people. The ultimate slight of hand and hypocrisy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 17, 2019, 11:59:20 am
      @georgr80:
      My basic understanding of firework (and explosives in general) tells me that it is highly unlikely fireworks release CO2. Also growing crops needs fertilizer (made from fossil fuels nowadays) and animals tend to release methane. Add to that that most part of the crops aren't used and left to rot (and thus releasing CO2 and methane) the net result of farming is that it may release more greenhouse gasses than get absorbed. And lets not forget everything being grown gets eaten at some point.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 17, 2019, 12:59:20 pm
      @georgr80:
      My basic understanding of firework (and explosives in general) tells me that it is highly unlikely fireworks release CO2.

      I know beans about fireworks and a little about the composition of gunpowder but  There is combustion going on so I would bet there is Co2 being released in the process.

      Quote
      Also growing crops needs fertilizer (made from fossil fuels nowadays) and animals tend to release methane. Add to that that most part of the crops aren't used and left to rot (and thus releasing CO2 and methane) the net result of farming is that it may release more greenhouse gasses than get absorbed. And lets not forget everything being grown gets eaten at some point.

      So what's your solution?
      Stop agriculture so as to stop co2 and let the world stave to death?

      Farming HAS to release more Co2 than it takes but again so what?  There is an output to all human activity so one either wears it or exterminates the human race to achieve the Green goal of Zero co2 emission.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 17, 2019, 01:27:32 pm
      Farming HAS to release more Co2 than it takes but again so what?
      It is not a requirement that farming releases an excess of CO2, but it always has. That Middle Eastern fertile crescent we read so much about in school history books isn't there now. The deep loess plateau in China in dramatically lower than when farming began. We got through massive supplies of guwano in a few years. Now we rely on oil to fertilize the land, and sustain the green revolution that lets 8 billion people be fed. From its very earliest days farming has always operated in an unsustainable manner, because the population has always risen to consume whatever output agriculture could achieve. We seem to be rapidly approaching crunch time right now.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 17, 2019, 03:48:31 pm
      Dude take a chill pill and do some research before forming th thr month.  Why all of the hostility?  This forum is about learning and helping each other.  It appears all you want to do mouth offf your beliefs and provide no facts or science to support your opinion. 

      Why are you even posting to this forum?   

      Do you not simple chemistry?  The products of a fireworks shell are as follows K2S (potassium sulfide) + N2 (nitrogen gas) + 3CO2 (carbon dioxide).

      My friend turn down the hostility and fire up the willingness to want to learn.  I have yet to meet someone who knows it except for the crazy religious nuts in my town who scream bible versus on street cornors. 

      Try eating a Hubble pie or two.  Then smoke a couple of marijuana joints and mellow out before making you next post.  Keep you mind open so you can lean something nd think about it unless that’s illegal in the copuntry where you live.
       

      Is this why farming releases so much CO2.

      So Much?? What would you propose, we stop agriculture? That will certainty reduce C02 emissions when most of the world population staves to death.


      Quote
      This is defiantly contributing to man caused climate change. 

      So are you in everything you do every day of your life. So what?  We could eliminate all the co2 production and the world would be all happy but unfortunately no one would be left. Kind of a moot point isn't it ?

      I'll guarantee one office block power consumption generates more co2 every single day than a farmer creates in a year.  You car probably generates more CO2in a year than a farmer using a flame weeder as well and remember, those crops absorb Co2 when the are growing so are carbon neutral.


      Not much point eliminating co2 or shutting down farming if we are all going to starve to death and they will be no one left on the planet.

      I'd suggest there are a whole lot more sensible things to target and raise awareness of than complain about c02 emissions from an absolutely essential industry that keeps us all alive.

      Wonder how much Co2 is generated by something Unnessacary like for instance, 4th of july Fireworks.  Around the US there must be hundreds of tons of fireworks releasing massive amounts of Co2.  Maybe questioning that and trying to have fireworks banned as the unnecessary and wasteful Co2 they generate would be a better place to start asking questions.  Then you can move on to other things that are a lot less essential than food production.

      Criticizing co2 from agriculture sounds like a poorly thought out complaint straight out of the Green rabble rousing play book to push the agenda without thinking  the Idea through logically and practically.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 17, 2019, 04:34:30 pm
      [...] smoke a couple of marijuana joints and mellow out before making you next post.  Keep you mind open so you can lean something nd think about it [...]

      Now I know why you say the things you say.  >:D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 17, 2019, 05:04:49 pm
      [...] smoke a couple of marijuana joints and mellow out before making you next post.  Keep you mind open so you can lean something nd think about it [...]

      Now I know why you say the things you say.  >:D

      Dude your the one who needs it, not me.  Just look at the things people have posted about your posts.  You need a bit of chillin.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on February 17, 2019, 07:59:21 pm
      Also growing crops needs fertilizer (made from fossil fuels nowadays) and animals tend to release methane. Add to that that most part of the crops aren't used and left to rot (and thus releasing CO2 and methane) the net result of farming is that it may release more greenhouse gasses than get absorbed. And lets not forget everything being grown gets eaten at some point.
      A big part of sustainable farming is reducing use of animals. (Keep in mind it's not necessarily going 100% vegan - the keyword to search by is "plant based diet".) Other than that, there needs to be more investment in making biofuels and other products from food crop waste. As well as more effort put into minimizing food waste in general.

      The good news is that anyone can switch to a sustainable diet (or at least less unsustainable diet) at basically any time.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 17, 2019, 08:12:58 pm
      Well we can't catch all the farts (methane). Making fertiliser can be reduced to needing an X amount of energy to produce a Y amount of fertiliser for a Z amount of money. If the CO2 footprint of X decreases then growing crops will produce less CO2. Letting the machines run on renewable energy sources (bio fuel is the easiest switch to make) and another reduction is achieved.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 17, 2019, 08:18:33 pm
      A big part of sustainable farming is reducing use of animals.
      I think you are confusing sustainability with the ability to feed more people. They are very different issues, although the urge to feed more and more usually makes sustainability harder to achieve.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 17, 2019, 10:00:40 pm
      Well we can't catch all the farts (methane). Making fertiliser can be reduced to needing an X amount of energy to produce a Y amount of fertiliser for a Z amount of money. If the CO2 footprint of X decreases then growing crops will produce less CO2. Letting the machines run on renewable energy sources (bio fuel is the easiest switch to make) and another reduction is achieved.

      Exactly, which is why biofuels will never work? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 17, 2019, 10:23:41 pm
      Well we can't catch all the farts (methane). Making fertiliser can be reduced to needing an X amount of energy to produce a Y amount of fertiliser for a Z amount of money. If the CO2 footprint of X decreases then growing crops will produce less CO2. Letting the machines run on renewable energy sources (bio fuel is the easiest switch to make) and another reduction is achieved.
      Exactly p, which is why biofuels will ever work?
      The EPA expects to ramp up 3rd generation ethanol to 16 billion gallons a year in the next couple of years. That is more than double the amount of ethanol the entire USA has produced in 2017. Basically the US bio-fuel production is currently at it's maximum production capability and 3rd generation bio-fuels are the only way to achieve a significant growth. Unfortunately this takes longer than expected. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37712 (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37712)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 17, 2019, 10:42:20 pm
      Well we can't catch all the farts (methane). Making fertiliser can be reduced to needing an X amount of energy to produce a Y amount of fertiliser for a Z amount of money. If the CO2 footprint of X decreases then growing crops will produce less CO2. Letting the machines run on renewable energy sources (bio fuel is the easiest switch to make) and another reduction is achieved.
      Exactly p, which is why biofuels will ever work?
      The EPA expects to ramp up 3rd generation ethanol to 16 billion gallons a year in the next couple of years. That is more than double the amount of ethanol the entire USA has produced in 2017. Basically the US bio-fuel production is currently at it's maximum production capability and 3rd generation bio-fuels are the only way to achieve a significant growth. Unfortunately this takes longer than expected. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37712 (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37712)
      The page you referenced says "Cellulosic biofuels were intended to grow to 16 billion gallons by 2022, but the technology has not matured fast enough to meet the volume standards.", which conflicts with the figure you quoted. They show cellulosic (3rd generation) fuels struggling to achieve any significant volume at all.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 17, 2019, 10:58:47 pm
      Well we can't catch all the farts (methane). Making fertiliser can be reduced to needing an X amount of energy to produce a Y amount of fertiliser for a Z amount of money. If the CO2 footprint of X decreases then growing crops will produce less CO2. Letting the machines run on renewable energy sources (bio fuel is the easiest switch to make) and another reduction is achieved.
      Exactly p, which is why biofuels will ever work?
      The EPA expects to ramp up 3rd generation ethanol to 16 billion gallons a year in the next couple of years. That is more than double the amount of ethanol the entire USA has produced in 2017. Basically the US bio-fuel production is currently at it's maximum production capability and 3rd generation bio-fuels are the only way to achieve a significant growth. Unfortunately this takes longer than expected. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37712 (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37712)
      The page you referenced says "Cellulosic biofuels were intended to grow to 16 billion gallons by 2022, but the technology has not matured fast enough to meet the volume standards.", which conflicts with the figure you quoted. They show cellulosic (3rd generation) fuels struggling to achieve any significant volume at all.
      True but the most recent news seems to indicate that the biggest problems have been overcome. Just shift the expectations of the EPA forward by a few years. The graph shows a significant growth expected for 2019 when it comes to cellulosic biofuels. They wouldn't have printed it if the factories aren't running. And these are just the demonstrator plants.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 17, 2019, 11:02:12 pm
      True but the most recent news seems to indicate that the biggest problems have been overcome. Just shift the expectations of the EPA forward by a few years.
      The latest news ALWAYS says the problems have been solved.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 17, 2019, 11:03:06 pm
      True but the most recent news seems to indicate that the biggest problems have been overcome. Just shift the expectations of the EPA forward by a few years.
      The latest news ALWAYS says the problems have been solved.
      Just keep an eye on it (see my latest edit). BTW I'm not just basing this on what the manufacturers say but also from what has been extracted from actual production numbers for 2017 and  2018.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 17, 2019, 11:05:19 pm
      True but the most recent news seems to indicate that the biggest problems have been overcome. Just shift the expectations of the EPA forward by a few years. The graph shows a significant growth expected for 2019 when it comes to cellulosic biofuels. They wouldn't have printed it if the factories aren't running. And these are just the demonstrator plants.
      Which graph are you referring to?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Carrington on February 17, 2019, 11:29:37 pm
      Was the ediesel mentioned here before?
      E-diesel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-diesel

      Please note that this topic is over 100 pages long, and I don't have enough time to read it.
      Cheers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 18, 2019, 12:36:51 am
      True but the most recent news seems to indicate that the biggest problems have been overcome. Just shift the expectations of the EPA forward by a few years. The graph shows a significant growth expected for 2019 when it comes to cellulosic biofuels. They wouldn't have printed it if the factories aren't running. And these are just the demonstrator plants.
      Which graph are you referring to?
      The one on the right. The right most bar is for 2019.

      @Carrington: e-diesel hasn't been mentioned before AFAIK. I never heard of it before.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 18, 2019, 01:55:49 am
      True but the most recent news seems to indicate that the biggest problems have been overcome. Just shift the expectations of the EPA forward by a few years. The graph shows a significant growth expected for 2019 when it comes to cellulosic biofuels. They wouldn't have printed it if the factories aren't running. And these are just the demonstrator plants.
      Which graph are you referring to?
      The one on the right. The right most bar is for 2019.
      That graphs shows a little production in 2016 and 2017, a lot less in 2018, and an estimate that's a bit higher than 2016 and 2017 for 2019. Its doesn't show any substantial production.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 18, 2019, 01:59:27 am
      Well we can't catch all the farts (methane). Making fertiliser can be reduced to needing an X amount of energy to produce a Y amount of fertiliser for a Z amount of money. If the CO2 footprint of X decreases then growing crops will produce less CO2. Letting the machines run on renewable energy sources (bio fuel is the easiest switch to make) and another reduction is achieved.
      Exactly p, which is why biofuels will ever work?
      The EPA expects to ramp up 3rd generation ethanol to 16 billion gallons a year in the next couple of years. That is more than double the amount of ethanol the entire USA has produced in 2017. Basically the US bio-fuel production is currently at it's maximum production capability and 3rd generation bio-fuels are the only way to achieve a significant growth. Unfortunately this takes longer than expected. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37712 (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=37712)

      Is that the EPA Trump is dismantling?  And if you believe 3rd generation ethanol to reach 16 billion gallons a year in the next couple of years are you investing in it?  Probably not.  Which is a good indication of how much you believe what you are promoting.

       

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 18, 2019, 02:12:53 am
      True but the most recent news seems to indicate that the biggest problems have been overcome. Just shift the expectations of the EPA forward by a few years.
      The latest news ALWAYS says the problems have been solved.
      Just keep an eye on it (see my latest edit). BTW I'm not just basing this on what the manufacturers say but also from what has been extracted from actual production numbers for 2017 and  2018.

      nctnico is so high on promoting biofuels with bullshit web sites it's silly trying to have a sane discussion with him.  I think the stock material for the biofuels he's talking about is what he can't smoke.  Look at the his previous posts on biofuels which go back a couple of years.  Which is what nctnico is basing his facts on.  The think is and nctnico know this those couple of years have past and biofuels are worse off than the were with his posts from a few years ago.  What's he's failing to accept is that biofuels have been proven not to be a viable solution from nctnico own posts.

      nctnico like that guy Bernard Madoff.  The FBI is in his office about to arrest him for ripping good honest people off with investment fraud like biofuel companies.  And Madoff is on the phone telling customers what a great investment biofuel companies will be in just a few years.  nctnico is doing the same thing.  He's telling people how wonderful biofuel companies are and will be while all of the evidence says otherwise.




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 18, 2019, 05:09:49 am
      Dude take a chill pill and do some research before forming th thr month.  Why all of the hostility?  This forum is about learning and helping each other.  It appears all you want to do mouth offf your beliefs and provide no facts or science to support your opinion. 

      Why are you even posting to this forum?   

      Do you not simple chemistry?  The products of a fireworks shell are as follows K2S (potassium sulfide) + N2 (nitrogen gas) + 3CO2 (carbon dioxide).

      My friend turn down the hostility and fire up the willingness to want to learn.  I have yet to meet someone who knows it except for the crazy religious nuts in my town who scream bible versus on street cornors. 

      Try eating a Hubble pie or two.  Then smoke a couple of marijuana joints and mellow out before making you next post.  Keep you mind open so you can lean something nd think about it unless that’s illegal in the copuntry where you live.

      Given the hypocrisy of the hostility in this post and the incomprehensible sentences, I will continue to avoid taking recreational drugs of any form thanks. NEVER taken/ smoked ANYTHING in my life nor even been drunk and I intend to finish my days as I have in this regard so far. I deal with problems head on not try to run and escape from them with some sort of artificial remedy that just makes things worse.

      Stoners and I don't mix well and they ALWAYS come off very second best with me. Never met one yet that wasn't a deadbeat,  looking to rip you off at any opportunity, was a moron and a pain in the arse to boot. NEVER have 2 cents to their name, never achieved anything in life and typically live off welfare and complain about everyone else that has worked and achieved something for themselves.  I know of one looser that has Weed symbol stickers all over his moving Violation of a vehicle and personal items like wallet and phone, has been pulled over by the cops and searched about 50 times and they find shit on him most times. Complains endlessly about why they are always pulling him over and how unfair it is he has to keep going to court and paying fines.

      Yeah, real Einstein like the rest of them.

      I don't know what is to learn from reading the endless harping and whining about Co2 that some want to manufacture opportunities to go on about it every time they possibly can.

      I don't give a damn about Co2. I think the whole fearmongering of it is a crock of ship just like the whole Globull boring scam.
      Co2 makes plants grow. That has to be good god for the planet. Warmer temps make plants grow faster and I hate the cold so I hope the planet does warm up a degree or 2. Carrying on about it is going to make NO difference because Gubbermints and their Big biz puppet masters will continue to do exactly what they want to do and that's it. They don't give a damn about Co2 or the environment so may as well just alienating people with the endless carry on and brow beating.
      I have also found the ones that whinge the most about these things are also very frequently the biggest hypocrites and do the least of anyone to do anything about their contribution to co2 and other emissions and energy consumption.

      Now those statements have upset some people, they have my blessing to continue on to be outraged. Just stop bleating about Co2 and Globull boring all the time when it has NOTHING to do with the topic as it has nothing to do with this one despite the agendas people want to push.

      Keep it to the Globull warming threads where you can preach and get the collective approval of the rest of the like minded.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 18, 2019, 05:11:40 am
      nctnico is so high on promoting biofuels with bullshit web sites it's silly trying to have a sane discussion with him.  I think the stock material for the biofuels he's talking about is what he can't smoke.  Look at the his previous posts on biofuels which go back a couple of years.  Which is what nctnico is basing his facts on.  The think is and nctnico know this those couple of years have past and biofuels are worse off than the were with his posts from a few years ago.  What's he's failing to accept is that biofuels have been proven not to be a viable solution from nctnico own posts.

      nctnico like that guy Bernard Madoff.  The FBI is in his office about to arrest him for ripping good honest people off with investment fraud like biofuel companies.  And Madoff is on the phone telling customers what a great investment biofuel companies will be in just a few years.  nctnico is doing the same thing.  He's telling people how wonderful biofuel companies are and will be while all of the evidence says otherwise.

      Ever heard of practice what you preach in reference to chilling out, dude.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 18, 2019, 06:01:16 am
      Dude take a chill pill and do some research before forming th thr month.  Why all of the hostility?  This forum is about learning and helping each other.  It appears all you want to do mouth offf your beliefs and provide no facts or science to support your opinion. 

      Why are you even posting to this forum?   

      Do you not simple chemistry?  The products of a fireworks shell are as follows K2S (potassium sulfide) + N2 (nitrogen gas) + 3CO2 (carbon dioxide).

      My friend turn down the hostility and fire up the willingness to want to learn.  I have yet to meet someone who knows it except for the crazy religious nuts in my town who scream bible versus on street cornors. 

      Try eating a Hubble pie or two.  Then smoke a couple of marijuana joints and mellow out before making you next post.  Keep you mind open so you can lean something nd think about it unless that’s illegal in the copuntry where you live.

      Given the hypocrisy of the hostility in this post and the incomprehensible sentences, I will continue to avoid taking recreational drugs of any form thanks. NEVER taken/ smoked ANYTHING in my life nor even been drunk and I intend to finish my days as I have in this regard so far. I deal with problems head on not try to run and escape from them with some sort of artificial remedy that just makes things worse.

      Stoners and I don't mix well and they ALWAYS come off very second best with me. Never met one yet that wasn't a deadbeat,  looking to rip you off at any opportunity, was a moron and a pain in the arse to boot. NEVER have 2 cents to their name, never achieved anything in life and typically live off welfare and complain about everyone else that has worked and achieved something for themselves.  I know of one looser that has Weed symbol stickers all over his moving Violation of a vehicle and personal items like wallet and phone, has been pulled over by the cops and searched about 50 times and they find shit on him most times. Complains endlessly about why they are always pulling him over and how unfair it is he has to keep going to court and paying fines.

      Yeah, real Einstein like the rest of them.

      I don't know what is to learn from reading the endless harping and whining about Co2 that some want to manufacture opportunities to go on about it every time they possibly can.

      I don't give a damn about Co2. I think the whole fearmongering of it is a crock of ship just like the whole Globull boring scam.
      Co2 makes plants grow. That has to be good god for the planet. Warmer temps make plants grow faster and I hate the cold so I hope the planet does warm up a degree or 2. Carrying on about it is going to make NO difference because Gubbermints and their Big biz puppet masters will continue to do exactly what they want to do and that's it. They don't give a damn about Co2 or the environment so may as well just alienating people with the endless carry on and brow beating.
      I have also found the ones that whinge the most about these things are also very frequently the biggest hypocrites and do the least of anyone to do anything about their contribution to co2 and other emissions and energy consumption.

      Now those statements have upset some people, they have my blessing to continue on to be outraged. Just stop bleating about Co2 and Globull boring all the time when it has NOTHING to do with the topic as it has nothing to do with this one despite the agendas people want to push.

      Keep it to the Globull warming threads where you can preach and get the collective approval of the rest of the like minded.

      What planet have you been living on?  Some stoners and drunks have been very prosperous and have changed the world we live in?  Since you are an old fossil, names like Dean Martin, (when we he not drunk?) Beatles Rolling Stones, Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, and all of the programmers who worked at Atari were stoners.  Heck even Pope Leo XIII always loved cocaine and wine.  Had Vin Mariani with him all the time.

      And then there are the psychedelic drugs.  Any idea how much influence they have had on religion, music, art, books, and most importantly the computer industry.  And now we all know Elon Musk smokes weed.

      You might want to try some dope or LSD it might mellow you out and clear your mind of all of the hostility you have.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 18, 2019, 06:45:14 am
      True but the most recent news seems to indicate that the biggest problems have been overcome. Just shift the expectations of the EPA forward by a few years.
      The latest news ALWAYS says the problems have been solved.
      Just keep an eye on it (see my latest edit). BTW I'm not just basing this on what the manufacturers say but also from what has been extracted from actual production numbers for 2017 and  2018.

      nctnico is so high on promoting biofuels with bullshit web sites it's silly trying to have a sane discussion with him.  I think the stock material for the biofuels he's talking about is what he can't smoke.  Look at the his previous posts on biofuels which go back a couple of years.  Which is what nctnico is basing his facts on.  The think is and nctnico know this those couple of years have past and biofuels are worse off than the were with his posts from a few years ago.  What's he's failing to accept is that biofuels have been proven not to be a viable solution from nctnico own posts.

      nctnico like that guy Bernard Madoff.  The FBI is in his office about to arrest him for ripping good honest people off with investment fraud like biofuel companies.  And Madoff is on the phone telling customers what a great investment biofuel companies will be in just a few years.  nctnico is doing the same thing.  He's telling people how wonderful biofuel companies are and will be while all of the evidence says otherwise.
      Interestingly you never provide any scientifically sound sources (IOW reports with factual numbers) which support your opinion. Some guy ranting on Youtube doesn't count.

      And perhaps Trump is taking the EPA apart but bio-fuels mean jobs for the USA. The jobs Trump promised.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 18, 2019, 07:06:12 am
      True but the most recent news seems to indicate that the biggest problems have been overcome. Just shift the expectations of the EPA forward by a few years.
      The latest news ALWAYS says the problems have been solved.
      Just keep an eye on it (see my latest edit). BTW I'm not just basing this on what the manufacturers say but also from what has been extracted from actual production numbers for 2017 and  2018.

      nctnico is so high on promoting biofuels with bullshit web sites it's silly trying to have a sane discussion with him.  I think the stock material for the biofuels he's talking about is what he can't smoke.  Look at the his previous posts on biofuels which go back a couple of years.  Which is what nctnico is basing his facts on.  The think is and nctnico know this those couple of years have past and biofuels are worse off than the were with his posts from a few years ago.  What's he's failing to accept is that biofuels have been proven not to be a viable solution from nctnico own posts.

      nctnico like that guy Bernard Madoff.  The FBI is in his office about to arrest him for ripping good honest people off with investment fraud like biofuel companies.  And Madoff is on the phone telling customers what a great investment biofuel companies will be in just a few years.  nctnico is doing the same thing.  He's telling people how wonderful biofuel companies are and will be while all of the evidence says otherwise.
      Interestingly you never provide any scientifically sound sources (IOW reports with factual numbers) which support your opinion. Some guy ranting on Youtube doesn't count.

      And perhaps Trump is taking the EPA apart but bio-fuels mean jobs for the USA. The jobs Trump promised.

      Dude Trump never promised biofuel jobs in the US.  I’m sure he doesn’t know anything about biofuels.  When Trump promised jobs, he promised jobs mining coal, drilling for fossil fuels and bring back those steel mill jobs.  Biofuels would be green jobs and we all know he's not for green jobs and does’t beleive climate change is happening eventhough his military gas already implemented many new porgrams because of climate change.

      You should give some of that pope’s wine a try.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 18, 2019, 07:44:06 am

      You might want to try some dope or LSD it might mellow you out and clear your mind of all of the hostility you have.

      No thanks.
      I don't need anymore problems in my life and I prefer to keep what wits I have intact at all times.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 18, 2019, 07:54:42 am
      Interestingly you never provide any scientifically sound sources (IOW reports with factual numbers) which support your opinion. Some guy ranting on Youtube doesn't count.

      Mate, look in the mirror, neither do YOU.
      Marketing/ investment hype of projections and forecasts don't count either.  You call on others to back everything up with scientific proof but never do that yourself insisting that something on a website from a self vested interest is indisputable. It's not.



      Quote
      And perhaps Trump is taking the EPA apart but bio-fuels mean jobs for the USA. The jobs Trump promised.

      What would it take for you to accept biofuels will never be more than a drop in the ocean, if that?

      Maybe you can give us some numbers of production from the sites you subscribe to and maybe in time if any of us still give a Fk we can have something to go by  as a make or break which you will accept as bio either living up to the hype or not.  No excuses, no BS if they don't get there, yes or no numbers we can say win or fail .
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 18, 2019, 04:24:48 pm

      You might want to try some dope or LSD it might mellow you out and clear your mind of all of the hostility you have.

      No thanks.
      I don't need anymore problems in my life and I prefer to keep what wits I have intact at all times.

      This stuff helps a lot of people think more clearly.  Looking at your posts, just thought it might help.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 18, 2019, 05:14:44 pm
      Interestingly you never provide any scientifically sound sources (IOW reports with factual numbers) which support your opinion. Some guy ranting on Youtube doesn't count.

      Dude the videos are just not “some guys”.  These are well educated experts with scientifc backgrounds who are well respected.  They use critical thinking skills and science to support their positions.  There’s not marketing hype or belelifs, just the language we all understand science. 

      Quote
      Mate, look in the mirror, neither do YOU.
      Marketing/ investment hype of projections and forecasts don't count either.  You call on others to back everything up with scientific proof but never do that yourself insisting that something on a website from a self vested interest is indisputable. It's not.

      Mate the other dude keeps citing marketing hype from several years ago as proof biofuels will save us all.  The problem is several years have passed, and biofules have not saved us as he keeps saying.  Insteadin they have had abysmal results.  Or in other words they have failed to produce.  There’s a reason venture capitalists are not investing in biofules,  They do not work as well as had been hyped.  Venture capatailists don’t back looosers.


      Quote
      And perhaps Trump is taking the EPA apart but bio-fuels mean jobs for the USA. The jobs Trump promised.

      What would it take for you to accept biofuels will never be more than a drop in the ocean, if that?

      Maybe you can give us some numbers of production from the sites you subscribe to and maybe in time if any of us still give a Fk we can have something to go by  as a make or break which you will accept as bio either living up to the hype or not.  No excuses, no BS if they don't get there, yes or no numbers we can say win or fail .
      [/quote]

      Friend in all of the press coverage Tump gets on employment and jobs have you ever herd him say anything about biofules?  Or biofuel jobs?   

      Show us one press report where Trump has even mentioned biofuels.  Just one.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 18, 2019, 09:40:01 pm
      Interestingly you never provide any scientifically sound sources (IOW reports with factual numbers) which support your opinion. Some guy ranting on Youtube doesn't count.
      Dude the videos are just not “some guys”.  These are well educated experts with scientifc backgrounds who are well respected.  They use critical thinking skills and science to support their positions.  There’s not marketing hype or belelifs, just the language we all understand science. 
      You mean the Australian car sales guy? Like he has the qualifications to proof several independant projects, in which at least a billion dollars of private money has been invested, wrong... You have to come up with a much better argument than that. And please quit about critical thinking. That is just blowing dust in the wind to create a smoke screen.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 19, 2019, 02:32:52 am
      Interestingly you never provide any scientifically sound sources (IOW reports with factual numbers) which support your opinion. Some guy ranting on Youtube doesn't count.
      Dude the videos are just not “some guys”.  These are well educated experts with scientifc backgrounds who are well respected.  They use critical thinking skills and science to support their positions.  There’s not marketing hype or belelifs, just the language we all understand science. 
      You mean the Australian car sales guy? Like he has the qualifications to proof several independant projects, in which at least a billion dollars of private money has been invested, wrong... You have to come up with a much better argument than that. And please quit about critical thinking. That is just blowing dust in the wind to create a smoke screen.

      There you go again making shit up.  John Cadogan is just one of the many people I have referenced.  They are sure as shit better than that one marketing web page from several years ago about biofuels.  Well several years have past and biofuels have failed miserably to meet the numbers in the documents you keep referring to.

      Are you saying you are not a critical thinker?  If so explains why many of your posts are so silly.  Stop inhaling the biofuel fumes and get a whiff of science.  If it were not for critical thinking skills and science were would we be? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 19, 2019, 02:50:17 am

      You have to come up with a much better argument than that. And please quit about critical thinking. That is just blowing dust in the wind to create a smoke screen.

      No. Critical thinking is what exposes scams and bullshit from the very star and avoids a lot of people getting suckered into things that are garbage.
      They are anything BUT a smoke screen, they are a smoke screen destroyer.  Asking questions to see if hype lives up to fact is something people with something to hide hate and something that people whom have come up with something good love because it proves their legitimacy.

      There are a lot of sheeple that just go with whatever they are told and never question or examine it. These are the people scammers and Polititians as well as big business love because they can sell them shit sandwiches without the bread and they just buy them and never complain because they are too damn stupid to think for themselves.

      You are very pro Bio fuels but I'd like to know exactly to what extent you use them yourself.  Do you run your Vehicle on E-85 or pure ethanol? How long have you been doing it? Does your Mrs also run her car on Bio Fuels ( if you have one)  and what sort of cars do you have?

      I have been running my vehicles and others in the family on and off on veg oil for 16 years.  I run generators and burners on it for heating water, metal casting and other things. I have helped people around the world build veg burners for Drying grain, heating greenhouses to replace LPG and run farming and industrial equipment on it.

      If anyone knows about Biofuels including alchol in a practical sense, blowing my own trumpt or not, You are going to have to go a ways to find someone that has had more free time on their hads to look into it and more importantly, get their hands dirty doing all kinds of testing and practical use than me.

      All that said, and with all the benefits Bio fuel has given me over the years, my belief it will contribute anything remotely significant to the worlds energy consumption is zero. has been for the last 16 years and in all that time, when they have been talking about breakthrough just around the corner the whole time, My opinion has only changed from highly unlikely to no way in hell.

      Maybe in time some token percentage of fuel we use might be from bio sources, 3-5% but I think that's overly optimistic anyway. In real terms though it will be nothing because Bio fuels CANNOT exist without oil energy input AND, the yield from bio fuels has never been greater than a breakeven for the liquid and electrical energy input.

      Again I ask you to put your money where your beliefs are.  Give us some numbers that we can use to see if Biofuels will be a hit or a miss in a certain number of years. How long will it be do you think with all these marvelous technology's will it take before Bio fuels are 1% of the worlds total liquid fuel supply?  give us some other numbers to go by as to what the contribution of bio fuels is going to be over a certain time line.
      Not looking for or remotely interested in any scientific fact, Just what YOU believe the Bio fuels contribution will be within a certain time frame based on your reading and opinion.

      Interested to hear how you use biofuels and for how long you have done so. Do you have any investments in bio fuel interests?





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 19, 2019, 03:11:45 am

      You might want to try some dope or LSD it might mellow you out and clear your mind of all of the hostility you have.

      No thanks.
      I don't need anymore problems in my life and I prefer to keep what wits I have intact at all times.
      [/quote]

      There are a lot of less than Ideal things said here and on every other fourm but I think encouraging people to become drug addicts crosses a line on EVERY public forum and website.

      My daughters last relationship came to a very abrupt end when I found the deadshit she had been going with offered and encouraged her to take Drugs. This guy thought he was hard and tough till i got hold of him. I'm a fat old overweight unfit diabetic but there is nothing like a the rage of a father with someone that tried to put his little girl in danger. 

      I even rang my solicitor mate after I sorted him and said what do I do when they come to arrest me? Frankly, I didn't give a rats arse about the consequences, I have the money to buy my way out of anything like that and there is no price too high for me to protect my little girl from pieces of garbage like him.  NOTHING.
      As my solicitor mate suggested, I wouldn't hear from anyone and if I did, he'd have no problem getting me off anyway given I had proof of what he had done.

      Least we did something right in the way we raised our girl and she was not persuaded and pretty much decided he wasn't worth carrying on with on her own. 

      Do you have kids? Do you encourage them to become drug addicts? If not, why do it with others?

      I have had a life beyond what most people can Imagine but the day I have to go down the road of becoming a drug addict is the day I'll fire up my 600V generator, wire myself to it and flick the switch.


      Quote
      This stuff helps a lot of people think more clearly.  Looking at your posts, just thought it might help.

      No, it fks people up and ruins lives. It helps nothing at all.
      Sad and predictable you as a drug user think otherwise.  Save your breath with any further encouragement, it's never going to work and is highly inappropriate.

      If you don't like what I post, please feel free to use the ignore function built into the forums features if it bothers you so much.
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 19, 2019, 03:45:13 am

      You have to come up with a much better argument than that. And please quit about critical thinking. That is just blowing dust in the wind to create a smoke screen.

      No. Critical thinking is what exposes scams and bullshit from the very star and avoids a lot of people getting suckered into things that are garbage.
      They are anything BUT a smoke screen, they are a smoke screen destroyer.  Asking questions to see if hype lives up to fact is something people with something to hide hate and something that people whom have come up with something good love because it proves their legitimacy.

      There are a lot of sheeple that just go with whatever they are told and never question or examine it. These are the people scammers and Polititians as well as big business love because they can sell them shit sandwiches without the bread and they just buy them and never complain because they are too damn stupid to think for themselves.

      You are very pro Bio fuels but I'd like to know exactly to what extent you use them yourself.  Do you run your Vehicle on E-85 or pure ethanol? How long have you been doing it? Does your Mrs also run her car on Bio Fuels ( if you have one)  and what sort of cars do you have?

      I have been running my vehicles and others in the family on and off on veg oil for 16 years.  I run generators and burners on it for heating water, metal casting and other things. I have helped people around the world build veg burners for Drying grain, heating greenhouses to replace LPG and run farming and industrial equipment on it.

      If anyone knows about Biofuels including alchol in a practical sense, blowing my own trumpt or not, You are going to have to go a ways to find someone that has had more free time on their hads to look into it and more importantly, get their hands dirty doing all kinds of testing and practical use than me.

      All that said, and with all the benefits Bio fuel has given me over the years, my belief it will contribute anything remotely significant to the worlds energy consumption is zero. has been for the last 16 years and in all that time, when they have been talking about breakthrough just around the corner the whole time, My opinion has only changed from highly unlikely to no way in hell.

      Maybe in time some token percentage of fuel we use might be from bio sources, 3-5% but I think that's overly optimistic anyway. In real terms though it will be nothing because Bio fuels CANNOT exist without oil energy input AND, the yield from bio fuels has never been greater than a breakeven for the liquid and electrical energy input.

      Again I ask you to put your money where your beliefs are.  Give us some numbers that we can use to see if Biofuels will be a hit or a miss in a certain number of years. How long will it be do you think with all these marvelous technology's will it take before Bio fuels are 1% of the worlds total liquid fuel supply?  give us some other numbers to go by as to what the contribution of bio fuels is going to be over a certain time line.
      Not looking for or remotely interested in any scientific fact, Just what YOU believe the Bio fuels contribution will be within a certain time frame based on your reading and opinion.

      Interested to hear how you use biofuels and for how long you have done so. Do you have any investments in bio fuel interests?

      Excellent reply.  I suspect you will not receive a reply or a bunch of nonsense from him.  I would be surprised if he answers your questions.

      The car guy John Cadogan, do you know much about him?  I've watched many of his YouTube videos and have found his scientific explanations about cars and fuels to be spot on.  I'm wondering how he's received where you are.  His video on biofuels was very good.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 19, 2019, 09:14:56 pm

      The car guy John Cadogan, do you know much about him?  I've watched many of his YouTube videos and have found his scientific explanations about cars and fuels to be spot on.  I'm wondering how he's received where you are.  His video on biofuels was very good.

      I'm surprised you like Cadogan. I would have thought he was too direct and "Uptight" for you.

      Cadogan is not well liked in the industry here.  He makes predictions that seem far fetched and ridiculous at the time but have a nasty and unfortunate habit of proving to be spot on. HE also calls things as he seems them and does not pander to the industry interests.

      He has made several predictions about our car industry that the media went to pains to ridicule and quoted him with the hosts of several programs openly laughing at him and basicly calling him stupid and a nutter.
      They weren't laughing when he said something would happen within 10 years and it happened exactly as he said within 8.  He gets to put them ridiculing him  on his channel now and laugh at them for being such indignant and wrong buttwipes. 

      He's not too PC but he has a habit of being very spot on with what he says no matter how many vested interests don't like it.  There is another major prediction he made about 9-10 years ago about a local manufacturer about to come true any time now. He was laughed at when he said that too.
      Looks very much like he will have the last laugh yet again.

      My favorite vid of his is the Tesla Cult Vid.  If anything proved how right that was it's the load of comments on the vid proving EXACTLY what he said. Man must be laughing at the number of hits and comments that one has got from the sooking fanbois.
      Not that the point of that vid wasn't painfully obvious to all that have a brain to think for themselves and don't need some TV type preacher to think for them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 19, 2019, 09:39:53 pm
      Interestingly you never provide any scientifically sound sources (IOW reports with factual numbers) which support your opinion. Some guy ranting on Youtube doesn't count.
      Dude the videos are just not “some guys”.  These are well educated experts with scientifc backgrounds who are well respected.  They use critical thinking skills and science to support their positions.  There’s not marketing hype or belelifs, just the language we all understand science. 
      You mean the Australian car sales guy? Like he has the qualifications to proof several independant projects, in which at least a billion dollars of private money has been invested, wrong... You have to come up with a much better argument than that. And please quit about critical thinking. That is just blowing dust in the wind to create a smoke screen.

      There you go again making shit up.  John Cadogan is just one of the many people I have referenced.  They are sure as shit better than that one marketing web page from several years ago about biofuels.  Well several years have past and biofuels have failed miserably to meet the numbers in the documents you keep referring to.

      Are you saying you are not a critical thinker?  If so explains why many of your posts are so silly.  Stop inhaling the biofuel fumes and get a whiff of science.  If it were not for critical thinking skills and science were would we be?
      I just follow where the money goes. If it where just one company pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into an idea I'd might give your objections a thought but when multiple independant companies are investing at least one billion dollars (combined) into an idea and built industrial scale factories they must be on to something big. It also means that multiple independent companies have come to the conclusion that the idea of cellulosic bio-fuels is feasible. What are you bringing to the table to prove a whole bunch of companies which probably employ THE top notch scientists in the world when it comes to cellulosic bio-fuels are wrong? Please stop puffing smoke and come up with a recent report (from 2017 or later) that says cellulosic bio-fuels are a fallacy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 19, 2019, 10:58:14 pm

      Excellent reply.  I suspect you will not receive a reply or a bunch of nonsense from him.  I would be surprised if he answers your questions.


      You were spot on and 100% Correct.

      Replied to you and has posted 3 other reply's at this time but skipped the questions I asked.
      Proof beyond all doubt as if we didn't already know it is full of hot air and complete and utter bullshit.  How many of these Green goobers have I came across before that make all the noise and never stop preaching and handing out the Koolaide but of course will never take a sip themselves.
      You can set your watch by it. The more they sook and cry about green motivations and the more they brow beat others for not blindly following their religion, the bigger the hypocrites they are.

      As usual, there is so much laughable stupidity in the latest post, it or anything else is not worth responding to.  I think ignoring  it and more predictable rubbish is the sensible option as clearly he is only trolling and talking the constant garbage to get some reaction and acknowledgement that is lacking in his everyday life.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 19, 2019, 11:12:56 pm

      Excellent reply.  I suspect you will not receive a reply or a bunch of nonsense from him.  I would be surprised if he answers your questions.

      You were spot on and 100% Correct.

      Replied to you and has posted 3 other reply's at this time but skipped the questions I asked.
      Because there is no use answering your questions. What the hell does my use of bio-fuels have to do with what is being developed in that area? But to answer your questions anyway: if E10 is available I fuel my car with that. I have looked at using E85 but that is unavailable where I live. Otherwise I probably would have fitted an E85 conversion kit on my car. The conversion kits are pretty cheap and easy enough to install.

      Now please add something to the discussion which has some scientific grounds. Perhaps you care to provide some numbers and results from your experiments with bio-fuels.

      BTW if you think bio-fuels don't count then check this Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_energy_supply (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_energy_supply). In 2012 bio-fuel and waste already provided 10% of the world's energy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 20, 2019, 01:30:55 am

       What the hell does my use of bio-fuels have to do with what is being developed in that area?

      It goes to credibility of which with me at least, you have none.  I might have some respect if you were actually dedicated to the cause you preach so much about and have some real world experience with it but using E-10 occasionally is a complete cop out.

      Quote
      I have looked at using E85 but that is unavailable where I live. Otherwise I probably would have fitted an E85 conversion kit on my car. The conversion kits are pretty cheap and easy enough to install.

      Another cop out. I personally know guys that drive over 80KM each way to get E-85 in bulk to do them a couple of weeks because they have converted their vehicles and believe in it and just don't mouth off like some. .  I give them wiring harnesses out of wrecked Cars to make the setup easier for them.

      Quote
      Now please add something to the discussion which has some scientific grounds.
      You first! We have been asking you to do that for weeks but the best you can do is propaganda websites from vested interests and Wiki. Meanwhile you bleat and sook about everyone else having to provide scientific proof of anything you dispute.

      Quote
      Perhaps you care to provide some numbers and results from your experiments with bio-fuels.

      I have run used veh oil in vehicles, mainly 95-100% for 16 years. I have made tens of thousands of litres of Biodiesel.  I have run generators and all manner of diesel engines on it for longer than vehicles.  I have made over a dozen burners for metal casting, heating domestic hot water and heating swimming pools as well as a bunch of other uses.

      I have only made a couple of batches of Alcohol fuel because it is too much effort and energy investment for too little return.  Wether on an individual or industrial scale, you can't get past the fact that the microbes you need in the mash are only ever going to reach 20% before they basically wipe themselves out.  You have to heat 100% of the volume of the mash to get 20% ( at extreme best) worth of final product.
      then there is the energy i pulverising the waste product if that is what you are going to be using and all the other parts of the process.
      Had you EVER got your hands dirty YOU would know all this and see why all the hoopla you go on with is flawed from the start.
      What numbers do you want me to provide? There is nothing I can say that will back up your claims, Quite the opposite.

      With all that hands on experience I still say Biofuels are not going to provide any amount of LIQUID fuels worth a damn (firewood doesn't count!)  now or into the foreseeable future.

      I asked what your predictions were for Biofuel production based on all the sits you read but as usual and as predicted, you don't answer but give a lot of waffle to avoid backing up anything you say or being shown up for the baseless rants you go on with.

      Quote

      BTW if you think bio-fuels don't count then check this Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_energy_supply (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_energy_supply). In 2012 bio-fuel and waste already provided 10% of the world's energy.

      Bet you felt really smart when you dug that up didn't you?  :bullshit:

      Sorry, Firewood  does not count and that is EXACTLY what is counted in that figure.  You really want us to believe that liquid bio fuels as we are specifically talking about  provide more energy than Nuke, Hydro, solar and wind... Put together?  :-DD :-DD   |O
      You are that desperate to convince us of your religion you would try something as laughable as that on? 
      And what about your own stipulations of something scientific from 2017 or later?

      Sorry, You are a joke mate and no other way to put it because that is the plain truth.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 20, 2019, 03:09:03 am

      Excellent reply.  I suspect you will not receive a reply or a bunch of nonsense from him.  I would be surprised if he answers your questions.

      You were spot on and 100% Correct.

      Replied to you and has posted 3 other reply's at this time but skipped the questions I asked.
      Because there is no use answering your questions. What the hell does my use of bio-fuels have to do with what is being developed in that area? But to answer your questions anyway: if E10 is available I fuel my car with that. I have looked at using E85 but that is unavailable where I live. Otherwise I probably would have fitted an E85 conversion kit on my car. The conversion kits are pretty cheap and easy enough to install.

      Now please add something to the discussion which has some scientific grounds. Perhaps you care to provide some numbers and results from your experiments with bio-fuels.

      BTW if you think bio-fuels don't count then check this Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_energy_supply (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_energy_supply). In 2012 bio-fuel and waste already provided 10% of the world's energy.

      Dude once again you have failed and I mean FAILED to offer any evidence to support your claims.  Now you are a complete joke as you don't even use the biofuels you think can power the world.

      All of your posts are jokes.  You try and use fake news and bullshit marketing material to support you claims.  Any high school kid high on dope can see the bullshit you are spewing.  Heck you don't even read what's in the links you are sharing to see they completely discredit the point you are trying to make.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 20, 2019, 03:29:11 am

      The car guy John Cadogan, do you know much about him?  I've watched many of his YouTube videos and have found his scientific explanations about cars and fuels to be spot on.  I'm wondering how he's received where you are.  His video on biofuels was very good.

      I'm surprised you like Cadogan. I would have thought he was too direct and "Uptight" for you.

      Cadogan is not well liked in the industry here.  He makes predictions that seem far fetched and ridiculous at the time but have a nasty and unfortunate habit of proving to be spot on. HE also calls things as he seems them and does not pander to the industry interests.

      He has made several predictions about our car industry that the media went to pains to ridicule and quoted him with the hosts of several programs openly laughing at him and basicly calling him stupid and a nutter.
      They weren't laughing when he said something would happen within 10 years and it happened exactly as he said within 8.  He gets to put them ridiculing him  on his channel now and laugh at them for being such indignant and wrong buttwipes. 

      He's not too PC but he has a habit of being very spot on with what he says no matter how many vested interests don't like it.  There is another major prediction he made about 9-10 years ago about a local manufacturer about to come true any time now. He was laughed at when he said that too.
      Looks very much like he will have the last laugh yet again.

      My favorite vid of his is the Tesla Cult Vid.  If anything proved how right that was it's the load of comments on the vid proving EXACTLY what he said. Man must be laughing at the number of hits and comments that one has got from the sooking fanbois.
      Not that the point of that vid wasn't painfully obvious to all that have a brain to think for themselves and don't need some TV type preacher to think for them.

      America needs a Cadogan.  I think I found him after my friend spent something like $90 to have his tires filled with Nitrogen gas to get better fuel economy.  Or at least that's what they told him.  What a crock.  Cadogan's video was spot on when it came to the science and the critical thinking skills.  His Tesla Cult and Tesla Truck video are also spot on when it comes to the science/physics and the use of critical thinking.  He's also correct about what fossil fuels have done for mankind.

      While I don't live in Ausie land I find it interesting to see how American and European car companies screw you guys over too.  I see Carogan being to the car companies what Richard Dawkins is the religion.  We need more people like them to separate facts for beliefs.

      If you are into podcasts there's a NPR show in the US called This American Life.  They have done two shows about cars.  The first one is about NUMMI (GM and Toyota) in Fremont, CA.  After GM/Toyota venture fell apart it is where Tesla's are being assembled.
      https://www.thisamericanlife.org/561/nummi-2015 (https://www.thisamericanlife.org/561/nummi-2015)

      Other one is about how cars are sold in the US.  After listen to Cadogan and the stories he's told about the way cars are sold where you are, sounds like it's the same here.
      https://www.thisamericanlife.org/513/129-cars (https://www.thisamericanlife.org/513/129-cars)

      Hope you find the podcasts interesting.

      Keep up the posts, maybe one day nctnico will realize will learn the value of critical thinking skills.  (But I doubt it.) 





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on February 20, 2019, 10:40:56 pm
      Meanwhile, the beat goes on...

      EV sales continue to grow. (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)  Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.

      (https://d2t6ms4cjod3h9.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/11.png)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 20, 2019, 10:54:26 pm
      Meanwhile, the beat goes on...

      EV sales continue to grow. (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)  Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.

      (https://d2t6ms4cjod3h9.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/11.png)
      50k versus 1.6 million cars sold in total. That is a drop in the ocean. Talking about creating misleading graphs  :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 20, 2019, 11:29:32 pm

      Oh goody!
      Another promo piece for EV's from a vested interest group trying to push their cause and do anything they can to get media attention.

      EV sales continue to grow.

      And why wouldn't they given the hype and attention they are getting in every form of media every day?
      They are held out to be the cure all of the worlds problems and the trendy new form of a penile or breast enhancement for the wanna be green cocktail party crowd.


        Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.

      Why is it impressive?
      The whole thing behind EV's is it is the shiny new toy that promises to be the biggest cash cow the Auto industry has had since it was created.
      That said, I doubt the manufacturers are cheering just yet given how far they will have to go to recoup R&D costs on these things.

      Wonder how the sales of hybrids compared?

      The next year or 2 should be interesting though with every manufacturer known and quite a few startups that aren't, all busting a gut to get in on the EV fad.  Some of them might be quite good, the Rivian for one seems to hold promise and with the huge backing it just got from Amazon, promises to kick Teslas arse  to timbucktoo and back.
       I'd put money on Tesla not being around in 5 years but I can't because none of the screaming fan bois that have a conniption on any forum I say that will take me up on setting up a proper bet with the money put in escrow.

      Both China and India want to set themselves up as the EV Production Leaders which will make for an interesting contest  with both the westerners and the Koreans whom are also serious about getting a slice of the pie and seem to have some worthy offerings in the pipeline ready to ship.

      I think buying an EV now would be a very unwise decision for this reason.
      Given the amount  of EV's about to rain down into the market in the next 2 years alone, The 4-5 yr resale value of anything bought now i going to be horrendous.  I doubt the tech will ever move faster than what it is going to in the next 5 years nor the prices drop further and faster.

      You'd really have to be mad or have more dollars than sense to buy an EV now.
      Won't stop a lot of the sheeple  rushing into them and then regretting it later on.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on February 20, 2019, 11:43:26 pm
      EV sales have continued their rapid growth rate despite overall auto sales growth being flat.

      1.6 million auto sales in the US for December 2018 is accurate but includes light trucks (trucks, SUVs, vans).  Considering that at this time there are essentially no EV models available in those categories that is a poor comparison. (Though a large number of EV s in the light truck category are being released in the next 2 years).

      Light truck sales have recently made up about 2/3 of total US auto sales.  (Yes Americans like their big SUVs and trucks).

      So comparing apples to apples, 50K of EV sales in December is approximately 10% of the  US car (not light truck) market.

      Regardless - what's important is the growth rate. Considering that 10 years ago there were essentially no EVs - the continued its exponential growth rate in the setting of a flat US auto market is a sign that EVs continue their march to eventually becoming the majority of new car sales.  Yes, that is still several years away but it is coming.  The data makes that clear.

      This link (http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019/01/december-2018-ytd-u-s-passenger-car-sales-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/) shows December 2018 US car sales and changes in sales.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 21, 2019, 03:23:06 am

      Light truck sales have recently made up about 2/3 of total US auto sales.  (Yes Americans like their big SUVs and trucks).

      So comparing apples to apples, 50K of EV sales in December is approximately 10% of the  US car (not light truck) market.

      So Ev's were about 10% of 33%?  Sounds close.


      US EV Sales Surpass 2% In 2018
      https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/12/us-ev-sales-surpass-2-for-2018-8-more-sales-charts/

      Yep, 2% of sales is about right.


      Quote
      Regardless - what's important is the growth rate.


      Why? Important to whom? The car companies?  Not important to me or anyone else I know.
      Couldn't give a damn if they were 90% or .1%.

      Quote
      Considering that 10 years ago there were essentially no EVs - the continued its exponential growth rate in the setting of a flat US auto market is a sign that EVs continue their march to eventually becoming the majority of new car sales.

      That's a stretch. Hardly exponential growth. Sounds like hyping them up to me.  Why do you want to do that? Do you have some vested interest in promoting them?  are you on the industry payroll in some way or just a fan Boi that think they have to recruit everyone else into the EV religion and worship the things?

      I think the idea that there were none 10 years ago and now there are and the sales are growing is a very banal point.  I'm sure I could have said the same about a lot of things that weren't available 10 years previous and sales had grown but what would you expect of an over hyped Pet product of the PC and greenwashed?


       
      Quote
      Yes, that is still several years away but it is coming.  The data makes that clear.

      SEVERAL years away?  :-DD Try 20 because  THAT is what the data says it will take for EVS to reach 51% of new car sales.

      According to BloombergNEF in May, by 2030 EVs will make up 44% of all new vehicle sales in Europe, 41% in China, 34% in the United States and 17% in Japan. By 2040, it said, they will comprise a market share of over 55%.

      Why the need to hype Ev's all the time?  Why the Muskesq exaggeration and blowing things out of proportion?
      The more I have something rammed down my throat and see constant hype and BS that I can see is not true, the more turned off and critical I am of it.

      I guess if you have some vested interest in the auto industry you may have an understandable interest in hyping EV's but otherwise, WTF is the point of talking ship about their sales and constantly spin doctoring the things?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on February 21, 2019, 05:10:53 am
      Funny how some get all worked up by facts that disagree with their narrative.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 21, 2019, 06:41:14 am
      EV sales have continued their rapid growth rate despite overall auto sales growth being flat.

      1.6 million auto sales in the US for December 2018 is accurate but includes light trucks (trucks, SUVs, vans).  Considering that at this time there are essentially no EV models available in those categories that is a poor comparison. (Though a large number of EV s in the light truck category are being released in the next 2 years).
      You still need to include light trucks in your comparison because people are buying them instead of EVs. BTW SUVs aren't light trucks and there are EV SUVs on the market.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on February 21, 2019, 08:13:26 am
      SUVs aren't light trucks

      Incorrect.  In the US, SUVs, Vans and pickups are classified as “light trucks”  (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_truck) and broken out separately from “cars” in automobile sales figures.

      Quote
      there are EV SUVs on the market.
      No, not really - or just barely. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV just recently was released to the US market in very limited numbers. The Tesla model X is kind of marketed as an SUV but that’s kind of a joke to anyone but the upper class “soccer mom” SUV crowd. Audi is just now releasing one.

      There are at least 3 companies releasing EV pick up trucks in the next year or two that I am aware of. It will be interesting to see how that market shakes out in the next few years. The top 3 selling autos in the US are pickup trucks. Once EVs have made the same inroads into that market that they’re making into the passenger car market, then the writing will be on the wall for the end of the US auto ICE age. Yes, that is still several years away, but it’s coming.

      When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 21, 2019, 09:56:13 am
      Funny how some get all worked up by facts that disagree with their narrative.

      Especially when their bullshit hyperbole they are pushing on people is Proven wrong.    :-//
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 21, 2019, 02:18:28 pm
      When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
      Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 21, 2019, 03:05:57 pm
      Meanwhile, the beat goes on...

      EV sales continue to grow. (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)  Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.

      (https://d2t6ms4cjod3h9.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/11.png)
      50k versus 1.6 million cars sold in total. That is a drop in the ocean. Talking about creating misleading graphs  :palm:
      Impressive growth. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 21, 2019, 03:10:03 pm
      It is not. After a decade the market penetration is only a few percent. Compare that with smartphones:
      (https://kansascity-prsa.org/images/blog/graph_1.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 21, 2019, 04:12:57 pm
      When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
      Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.

      Volt is a discontinued car. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 21, 2019, 04:18:58 pm
      Meanwhile, the beat goes on...

      EV sales continue to grow. (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)  Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.

      (https://d2t6ms4cjod3h9.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/11.png)
      50k versus 1.6 million cars sold in total. That is a drop in the ocean. Talking about creating misleading graphs  :palm:
      Impressive growth.

      How does this compare to the adoption of BEVs in the 1970s and over 100 years ago when BEV cars were first introduced?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 21, 2019, 05:14:38 pm
      Meanwhile, the beat goes on...

      EV sales continue to grow. (https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)  Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.

      (https://d2t6ms4cjod3h9.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/11.png)
      Are those January 2019 sales for the whole of January? If so, is that the normal seasonal variation between December and January sales for other types of car?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on February 21, 2019, 05:25:00 pm
      EV sales have continued their rapid growth rate despite overall auto sales growth being flat.

      1.6 million auto sales in the US for December 2018 is accurate but includes light trucks (trucks, SUVs, vans).  Considering that at this time there are essentially no EV models available in those categories that is a poor comparison. (Though a large number of EV s in the light truck category are being released in the next 2 years).

      Light truck sales have recently made up about 2/3 of total US auto sales.  (Yes Americans like their big SUVs and trucks).

      The 10% number is similar to that of Canada where the last numbers I saw were that 8% of all new cars were BEV/PHEV in early 2018.  I'd be surprised if Canada doesn't beat the US in car sales percentages due to the double whammy of lower electricity and higher gasoline prices (compared to the USA). 

      Here in BC the fuel costs of a BEV are 1/7th that of the compatible ICE (given today's electricity/gasoline price), so the incentive is pretty high. 

      So to sum up once again
      Q: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      A: They have already
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 21, 2019, 09:34:23 pm

      Here in BC the fuel costs of a BEV are 1/7th that of the compatible ICE (given today's electricity/gasoline price), so the incentive is pretty high. 

      I'd like to see real world verifyable figures to support that.

      Seen so many claims of this when it does not add up. A favourite is to quote the cost of Filling an ICE and an EV and claiming one is cheaper than the other but not taking into account the ICE goes 4-6x further than the EV.

      Tesla had a page on it's site here showing it's car was cheaper to run over 1500KM. Typically with their endless bullshit and lies, the calculation took into account the 400KWH of free supercharging that came with every new Vehicle.  The first 1500Km may have been cheaper but the next and every subsequent 1500km was far from cheap at all.

      I don't trust any claims made by the greenwashed because they have proven to exaggerate and lie either by omission or otherwise on so many things in their desperation to push their cult and turn everyone to converts.

      In any case, I see any EV price advantage to be short lived.
      As more EV's put more pressure on grids around the world that will need to be upgraded and have billions spent on infrastructure the price of power WILL  go up as it continues to do here at an economic crippling rate.
      At the same time as fuel sales go down, the cartels will start leveling the playing field and reducing the now artificially inflated cost of fuel.
      Anyone that thinks the oil industry is just going to sit on it's arse and seen their profits go down the gurgler without fighting it is a moron.

      The scenarios are always painted as nice and straight forward but reality is anything but. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 21, 2019, 10:14:39 pm

      Here in BC the fuel costs of a BEV are 1/7th that of the compatible ICE (given today's electricity/gasoline price), so the incentive is pretty high. 

      I'd like to see real world verifyable figures to support that.

      Seen so many claims of this when it does not add up. A favourite is to quote the cost of Filling an ICE and an EV and claiming one is cheaper than the other but not taking into account the ICE goes 4-6x further than the EV.

      Tesla had a page on it's site here showing it's car was cheaper to run over 1500KM. Typically with their endless bullshit and lies, the calculation took into account the 400KWH of free supercharging that came with every new Vehicle.  The first 1500Km may have been cheaper but the next and every subsequent 1500km was far from cheap at all.

      I don't trust any claims made by the greenwashed because they have proven to exaggerate and lie either by omission or otherwise on so many things in their desperation to push their cult and turn everyone to converts.

      In any case, I see any EV price advantage to be short lived.
      As more EV's put more pressure on grids around the world that will need to be upgraded and have billions spent on infrastructure the price of power WILL  go up as it continues to do here at an economic crippling rate.
      At the same time as fuel sales go down, the cartels will start leveling the playing field and reducing the now artificially inflated cost of fuel.
      Anyone that thinks the oil industry is just going to sit on it's arse and seen their profits go down the gurgler without fighting it is a moron.

      The scenarios are always painted as nice and straight forward but reality is anything but.

      george80 you are absolutely correct.  I live in California and our power company by the end of this year will have everyone on a Time of Use Billing which will greatly complicate EV.  Depending on the rate plan a kWhr ranges from $0.12 to $0.87.  Will people have to "fill-up" when the power company is charging  $0.87 kWhr?  They sure would if they don't want to walk home.  For a Tesla this would be over twice if not close to three times what it would cost to fuel and ICE car with gasoline.

      Now if one has solar panels and can sell electricity to the power company this changes everything as you can sell kHrs to the power company at $0.87kWhr and then buy back those kWhrs for only $0.12.  But then one has to factor in the $35,000 Tesla/Solar City charges for the solar panels.

      As someone who owns an electric car in California the annual cost difference between "fueling" an EV and an ICE is a difference of a few hundred dollars.  And as electricity rates increase it's going to be even less.

      The big advantage with EVs other than BSing people into thinking they are doing something "good" for the planet is they cause the pollution in someone else's backyard.  There is no cost "real" cost savings.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Someone on February 21, 2019, 10:19:52 pm

      Here in BC the fuel costs of a BEV are 1/7th that of the compatible ICE (given today's electricity/gasoline price), so the incentive is pretty high. 

      I'd like to see real world verifyable figures to support that.
      Its all too easy to manipulate that sort of comparison in either direction, though a few years old now this post has the world comparison:
      https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/problems-if-we-all-had-tesla-cars/msg705793/#msg705793 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/problems-if-we-all-had-tesla-cars/msg705793/#msg705793)
      Picking less efficient vehicles to compare against the Tesla would just change the slope of the line showing parity. Equally picking a more efficient electric car could push it further.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 21, 2019, 10:26:02 pm
      nctnico  wanted to get back to you on biofuels.  You made it clear you do no believe in applying critical thinking skills or peer review.  Ever hear of a women by the name of Elizabeth Holmes?  She was the youngest female billionaire.  After taking two classes at Stanford University she dropped out and developed a machine which could perform over 250  blood tests with less than a drop of blood.  She refused to allow anyone to see the machine or show anyone how the machine worked but she hyped the heck out of her company to get investors.  Sounds exactly like what's going on with biofuels.  You keep telling us how great and wonderful they are....  Just too good to be true?  Kind of like Theranos.  How do we know you are not an "Elizabeth Homes" when it comes to biofuels?

      http://abcradio.com/podcasts/the-dropout/ (http://abcradio.com/podcasts/the-dropout/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 21, 2019, 10:28:18 pm

      Here in BC the fuel costs of a BEV are 1/7th that of the compatible ICE (given today's electricity/gasoline price), so the incentive is pretty high. 

      I'd like to see real world verifyable figures to support that.
      Its all too easy to manipulate that sort of comparison in either direction, though a few years old now this post has the world comparison:
      https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/problems-if-we-all-had-tesla-cars/msg705793/#msg705793 (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/problems-if-we-all-had-tesla-cars/msg705793/#msg705793)
      Picking less efficient vehicles to compare against the Tesla would just change the slope of the line showing parity. Equally picking a more efficient electric car could push it further.

      I think it is fair at this time to say it's a wash.  It's only perceived to be less costly and better for the planet in the minds of people who think it is.  Remember this is not our first or second round with electric cars.  This is the third attempt.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on February 21, 2019, 11:38:42 pm
      Now if one has solar panels and can sell electricity to the power company this changes everything as you can sell kHrs to the power company at $0.87kWhr and then buy back those kWhrs for only $0.12.  But then one has to factor in the $35,000 Tesla/Solar City charges for the solar panels.
      Why buy (overpriced) Tesla solar panels for a Tesla car when cheaper alternatives exist? That's even less valid than saying that you have to buy overpriced Apple headphones for an iPhone.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 22, 2019, 12:42:12 am
      nctnico  wanted to get back to you on biofuels.  You made it clear you do no believe in applying critical thinking skills or peer review.  Ever hear of a women by the name of Elizabeth Holmes?  She was the youngest female billionaire.  After taking two classes at Stanford University she dropped out and developed a machine which could perform over 250  blood tests with less than a drop of blood.  She refused to allow anyone to see the machine or show anyone how the machine worked but she hyped the heck out of her company to get investors.
      Nice try but no sigar. You are way off as usual. There are several independent companies working on 3rd generation bio-fuels. These are multi-billion dollar companies which have invested hundreds of millions of their own money into various factories which are up & running today. There is no hype, they don't need investors for money and there are no secrets. Production volumes for US based operations are reported to the EPA.

      Perhaps do your homework first before posting nonsense which is easely proven wrong (see the articles and US government websites I've linked to before).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 22, 2019, 01:28:19 am
      Now if one has solar panels and can sell electricity to the power company this changes everything as you can sell kHrs to the power company at $0.87kWhr and then buy back those kWhrs for only $0.12.  But then one has to factor in the $35,000 Tesla/Solar City charges for the solar panels.
      Why buy (overpriced) Tesla solar panels for a Tesla car when cheaper alternatives exist? That's even less valid than saying that you have to buy overpriced Apple headphones for an iPhone.

      Why do you say they are over priced?  Going price for solar systems from companies like Tesla, SunRun, SunPower, Vivint is $3.75 to $4.00 /watt.  The reason for buying overpriced Apple headphones is they are better quality.  I know.  I have six different headphones for my iPhone and the overpriced Apple ones are by far the best in terms of construction, sound quality and noise reduction.  I'm frugal with my money, and feel the over priced Apple headphones are worth it.  Your hearing my vary. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 22, 2019, 01:32:59 am
      nctnico  wanted to get back to you on biofuels.  You made it clear you do no believe in applying critical thinking skills or peer review.  Ever hear of a women by the name of Elizabeth Holmes?  She was the youngest female billionaire.  After taking two classes at Stanford University she dropped out and developed a machine which could perform over 250  blood tests with less than a drop of blood.  She refused to allow anyone to see the machine or show anyone how the machine worked but she hyped the heck out of her company to get investors.
      Nice try but no sigar. You are way off as usual. There are several independent companies working on 3rd generation bio-fuels. These are multi-billion dollar companies which have invested hundreds of millions of their own money into various factories which are up & running today. There is no hype, they don't need investors for money and there are no secrets. Production volumes for US based operations are reported to the EPA.

      Perhaps do your homework first before posting nonsense which is easely proven wrong (see the articles and US government websites I've linked to before).

      It sure as shit is all hype.  That's all you have posted.  No cigar needed when one looks at your posts from a few years ago and compares the projected sales goals with the actual sales figures.  Not quite as bad as Theranos fraud, but it's sure not the solution you keep saying it is.  Dude just look at the sales figures over the past several years they are abysmal compared to what was projected.

      Not quit as bad a Theranos, but the hype is just like that of biofuels.

      https://youtu.be/87SWZ0Pna8k
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on February 22, 2019, 03:29:46 am
      When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
      Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.

      Ha. When I was 16 I would have LOVED to have a car that I could refill for 'free" by just plugging it in at my parents house.  My main limitation driving at that age was not having money to buy gasoline.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 22, 2019, 03:56:19 am

      Depending on the rate plan a kWhr ranges from $0.12 to $0.87.  Will people have to "fill-up" when the power company is charging  $0.87 kWhr? 

      HOOLY DOOLEY!!!
      I thought some plans in Oz were ripoffs at .54 C Kwh but .87 is just eye watering.

      You are right, there will be those that have to charge because you can't always schedule your movements and situation especially around refueling a vehicle.  What really gets me though is the power companies will be talking endless green crap about scheduling your loads and " Modifying behaviour" when the highest prices will be right in the evenings when dad comes home from work and the meal is being prepared and Kids are doing whatever watching TV, on the computer etc and there is NO way to "Modify Behaviour".

      What are you going to say?  It's 5PM, go to bed  now kids and I'll wake you up at 10 PM for dinner and to do your homework. Yeah, that will fly!
      Kids go to school and tell other Kids they eat Dinner at 9PM and Child services will probably be knocking on the door to take the kids away from the " abusive" parents.  Geez this do good crap gives me the irrits.
      And you could not pay me enough to live in cali-fail-na. I have a couple of friends that live there and if 10% of what I hear about the place is true..... My god! One mate can't have a gas portable BBQ going to cook his evening meal without the neighbors bitch and the council/ cops/ Fire department come and threaten to fine him.


      Quote
      Now if one has solar panels and can sell electricity to the power company this changes everything as you can sell kHrs to the power company at $0.87kWhr and then buy back those kWhrs for only $0.12.  But then one has to factor in the $35,000 Tesla/Solar City charges for the solar panels.

      We have nothing  Like selling the power back to the grid for what it costs.  I do in my own underhanded way. Still have spinny meters which my solar winds back during the day and I use at night to make the grid act like my battery.
      Here the normal thing is you can get back about .8 to .20C per KWH you send back BUT, the higher the amount you get, the more you pay for what you use.  Nothing like a con job. They advertise and make a big deal of the High FIT rates but even when you are aware of the scam it often takes some Digging to find what the charges are.  The other thing they get you on is high " Supply" charges so they are making plenty even if you are using nothing.  Lot of other scams they have here as well advertising discounts but then cooking the books so you get a fraction of what they promote.

      Solar here is FAR cheaper than in the states.
      A 6.6KW system here can be had all day for $6000 with good quality components and that includes installation. There are cheaper systems available for closer to the $4k mark for that sort of output.
      I saw a Vid done about a week ago the other day where a guy in the US was quoting $30K  for a 4 or 5KW system. I had to go back and make sure I hadn't heard wrong but then he showed the figures..... scary!

      The thing about charging an EV from solar is largely a Crock as well.
      In order to do that and not cost oneself money anyway, one would have to be generating an EXCESS equivalent  to the amount the EV used every day. For many, that's not easy and for those that can, it's certainly not going to happen all the time.
      I don't know what US Consumption is on average, would obviously vary a lot as with anywhere depending on wether gas was used and time of year.
      I think it would be fair to say 20 Kwh as a conservative average.

      5 kw of panels in a sunny place in summer might generate 25Kwh.  In winter maybe 10. On an overcast day, maybe 5. Maybe. Of course if you have shading issues that's going to knock generation around as does weather.
      In any case, one would have to have 10Kw of panels on the roof to be in the hunt to be able to support the power the home uses AND the EV.
      If you can't do both, then you are robbing Peter to pay Paul which is exactly what so many of the green cult are preaching knowingly or by ignorance.

      In Sydney we have a 33% weather split. About 1/3rd of the days are bright sunny and clear, about 1/3rd have intermittent cloud and the other 3rd are overcast sometimes with rain.  In other words, your system really needs to be 3X bigger than what is needed to handle all the weather all the year.  30Kw of panels on the average domestic residence anywhere in the world? Not a hope in hell.
      Take into account the matchboxes they are building now and have done is some places for years with tiny foot prints and similarly tiny roof spaces, going to be lucky to get 3Kw literally!

      Of course if you live in a place with a lot of cloud/ snow/ rain etc..... forget it.
      I have over 20Kwh of solar now and that will be a stretch to get me through winter breaking even with power and I sure as heck don't have an EV to suck down the juice.  this whole " charge at home from your panels " BS is a bit like saying, " No need to buy fruit and veg at the shop, just grow your own in the back yard."
      Yeah a FEW can do it but the greater majority can't for one reason or another.

      I also don't see the TOU pricing model lasting too long. It's on it's way out here now. People DID change their behavior, Too much for the power/ energy companies liking.  Electric off peak hot water has made a come back. Appliances like dishwashers and washing machines/ Dryers have timers built in, people are buying storage batteries which charge at night during the off peak and feed back at peak times. Busineess that operated in normal hours are now going to night production and paying the penality rates in wages to say fortunes in power use.

      There is a link to our power grid generation and consumption I look and laugh at from time to time and the consumption is fast evening out.
      Day demand is getting lass as people are running of their own generated solar power and night consumption is going up as everyone wants to take advantage of cheaper rates.

      Quote
      As someone who owns an electric car in California the annual cost difference between "fueling" an EV and an ICE is a difference of a few hundred dollars.  And as electricity rates increase it's going to be even less.

      If one takes into account the higher cost of an EV than a similar ICE the savings would evaporate in most cases.
      Resale value is going to be a significan't issue with EV's as well.

      Quote
      The big advantage with EVs other than BSing people into thinking they are doing something "good" for the planet is they cause the pollution in someone else's backyard.  There is no cost "real" cost savings.

      No emissions, environmental or any other benefits either despite what the Cult leaders of the green church preach.

      I really wonder how far EV's will get?
      Despite the greenwashing, it IS going to take 20years before ev's reach 51% of new car sales.  20 years is a long time in tech. it's also going to be a LOT of money that has to be invested to accomodate them.
      I wonder if some new thing might come along in that time and cut the EV legs from under them.  If the Auto industry have success with flogging the new EV tech, first thing they are going to do is go into Apple mode and want to bring out a later product people will want to update that to.  Might be some new fuel all together, main roads and Highways might have cable system that pulls traffic along, maybe someone gets teleportation working?.... Far from a safe bet that nothing will happen in the next 20 year and everyone will be happy with EV's and no one is going to try and overcome their shortfalls and improving transportation.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 22, 2019, 04:08:24 am
      Nice try but no sigar. You are way off as usual. There are several independent companies working on 3rd generation bio-fuels. These are multi-billion dollar companies which have invested hundreds of millions of their own money into various factories which are up & running today. There is no hype, they don't need investors for money and there are no secrets. Production volumes for US based operations are reported to the EPA.

      Perhaps do your homework first before posting nonsense which is easely proven wrong (see the articles and US government websites I've linked to before).

      Yawn.  :blah:
      Same old Same old.

      Multi billion dollar companies are investing hundreds of Millions in Hydrogen and electric as well.
      Does that mean it's also going to be the fuel of the future? Can't have electric, Bio AND hydrogen all taking over although I bet each one would tell you the horse THEY are backing will definitely be the winner.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on February 22, 2019, 04:11:59 am
      Why do you say they are over priced?  Going price for solar systems from companies like Tesla, SunRun, SunPower, Vivint is $3.75 to $4.00 /watt.  The reason for buying overpriced Apple headphones is they are better quality.  I know.  I have six different headphones for my iPhone and the overpriced Apple ones are by far the best in terms of construction, sound quality and noise reduction.  I'm frugal with my money, and feel the over priced Apple headphones are worth it.  Your hearing my vary. 
      The going rate for a few panels is about $1/W, with half that not unusual for bulk orders. DIY really brings the price down.

      And real audiophiles agree that Apple is especially overpriced for headphones.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 22, 2019, 04:16:49 am

      Ha. When I was 16 I would have LOVED to have a car that I could refill for 'free" by just plugging it in at my parents house.  My main limitation driving at that age was not having money to buy gasoline.

      And this to me raises another quandry of the scenario of the EV Future.....

      Mum, Dad and the 2 Kids ALL want to charge their EV's at the same time because they all have somewhere to be tomorrow.
       Hows that going to work?  4 Charging stations at home?  What's the amp and KWH draw on that going to be?

      Oh yeah, you can charge them from your solar panels Right?
      Hope you own acreage and have your own solar farm... and it never gets cloudy..... and you can be home during the day.... and there is no winter where you live, just endless sunshine and playful unicorns.   ^-^
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 22, 2019, 09:54:58 am
      I've had an idea: do the water electrolysis deep down in the Mariana Trench and get the H2 compressed for free. How about that? And you get chlorine too, for free.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 22, 2019, 10:10:53 am
      Nice try but no sigar. You are way off as usual. There are several independent companies working on 3rd generation bio-fuels. These are multi-billion dollar companies which have invested hundreds of millions of their own money into various factories which are up & running today. There is no hype, they don't need investors for money and there are no secrets. Production volumes for US based operations are reported to the EPA.

      Perhaps do your homework first before posting nonsense which is easely proven wrong (see the articles and US government websites I've linked to before).
      Multi billion dollar companies are investing hundreds of Millions in Hydrogen and electric as well.
      Does that mean it's also going to be the fuel of the future? Can't have electric, Bio AND hydrogen all taking over although I bet each one would tell you the horse THEY are backing will definitely be the winner.
      It is not that black and white. There will be a market for electric cars, there will be a market for hydrogen cars and bio-fuel (ethanol) allows to keep using existing cars and infrastructure so there is a market for that as well. Depending on where you are you'll see a different mix of these in the future. This means that it is worthwile to invest in these technologies because nowadays companies aren't stuck to selling in a particular part of the world. For example: most of the ethanol the US produces is being exported.

      And look at mobile phones. You can't call Apple mainstream but they do manage to offer a premium product and make a good profit. The same goes for Tesla. They are a well-known premium brand but not the market leader (when looking at global EV sales).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 22, 2019, 10:13:50 am
      When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
      Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.
      Ha. When I was 16 I would have LOVED to have a car that I could refill for 'free" by just plugging it in at my parents house.  My main limitation driving at that age was not having money to buy gasoline.
      I'm quite sure you'll put a lock on the outlet if your kid starts to run the electricity bill up to hundreds of dollars extra per month. Electricity isn't exactly free. Perhaps that is a valuable lessing you should learn your kids.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on February 22, 2019, 05:17:18 pm
      Third generation biofuel will suffer from the same cost problems which generally face greenhouse crops ... it's very hard to compete with something grown on arable land, they can just do it so much cheaper. Prices will likely be far far higher than the current benchmark, palm oil.

      The greenhouse comparison is apt because you need bioreactors.  To contain the nutrients, to keep out natural algae species (which are much more efficient, because they don't waste so much energy on oil) and to prevent evaporation and steadily rising salinity. But now you need cooling ... and the only low cost cooling near non precious land is the sea/ocean, so if you want to do it on land your locations are limited. Doing it in the sea/ocean presents a whole new set of problems and likely impossible to avoid costs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 22, 2019, 05:25:15 pm
      Why do you say they are over priced?  Going price for solar systems from companies like Tesla, SunRun, SunPower, Vivint is $3.75 to $4.00 /watt.  The reason for buying overpriced Apple headphones is they are better quality.  I know.  I have six different headphones for my iPhone and the overpriced Apple ones are by far the best in terms of construction, sound quality and noise reduction.  I'm frugal with my money, and feel the over priced Apple headphones are worth it.  Your hearing my vary. 
      The going rate for a few panels is about $1/W, with half that not unusual for bulk orders. DIY really brings the price down.

      And real audiophiles agree that Apple is especially overpriced for headphones.

      If you are willing the sell, and design, permit, install, monitor and maintain a solar panel installation for $1/W I will hire you.  Not only that I have six other family members who would gladly hire you as well.

      And because you are such a nice guy in doing all of this for $1/W we will pay you double just to make it worth your while.  When do you want to get started?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 22, 2019, 05:31:04 pm
      When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
      Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.
      Ha. When I was 16 I would have LOVED to have a car that I could refill for 'free" by just plugging it in at my parents house.  My main limitation driving at that age was not having money to buy gasoline.
      I'm quite sure you'll put a lock on the outlet if your kid starts to run the electricity bill up to hundreds of dollars extra per month. Electricity isn't exactly free. Perhaps that is a valuable lessing you should learn your kids.

      Ha, kids today are being told electricty is free from the sun with solar.  They just don’t mention one has to buy the solar panels.  But energy is “free” from the sun, right?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 22, 2019, 05:53:44 pm
      Nice try but no sigar. You are way off as usual. There are several independent companies working on 3rd generation bio-fuels. These are multi-billion dollar companies which have invested hundreds of millions of their own money into various factories which are up & running today. There is no hype, they don't need investors for money and there are no secrets. Production volumes for US based operations are reported to the EPA.

      Perhaps do your homework first before posting nonsense which is easely proven wrong (see the articles and US government websites I've linked to before).
      Multi billion dollar companies are investing hundreds of Millions in Hydrogen and electric as well.
      Does that mean it's also going to be the fuel of the future? Can't have electric, Bio AND hydrogen all taking over although I bet each one would tell you the horse THEY are backing will definitely be the winner.
      It is not that black and white. There will be a market for electric cars, there will be a market for hydrogen cars and bio-fuel (ethanol) allows to keep using existing cars and infrastructure so there is a market for that as well. Depending on where you are you'll see a different mix of these in the future. This means that it is worthwile to invest in these technologies because nowadays companies aren't stuck to selling in a particular part of the world. For example: most of the ethanol the US produces is being exported.

      And look at mobile phones. You can't call Apple mainstream but they do manage to offer a premium product and make a good profit. The same goes for Tesla. They are a well-known premium brand but not the market leader (when looking at global EV sales).

      I thought you were a old fossil.  Ann old guy like you should know all Ford cars ran on biofuels way back when.

      Dude you got me on this one.  What exactly is the market for hydrogen powered cars?  AND what is the benefit of hydrogen fuel when it comes form fossil fuels?  What company or individual is going to want to pay four or five times as much for hydrogen fuel and have to wait 29 minutes to fuel the car?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 22, 2019, 06:07:06 pm
      The general claim for using Hydrogen is that you can fill it just as fast as an ICE car. For some reason not all hydrogen fueling stations can supply hydrogen fast so fueling takes longer (still the time is much shorter than charging an EV for the same range). I don't know how and why some hydrogen fueling stations are slow and others are fast and how to recognise them. As more hydrogen fueling stations will be built this should become more clear over time.

      Whether hydrogen is more expensive or not depends on the fuel prices. In the Netherlands the price of hydrogen is on par with normal fuel prices. My current car is more expensive to run on fuel compared to hydrogen. A more efficient car will be cheaper to run.

      And sure hydrogen comes from fossil fuels just like electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels. Hydrogen and batteries are energy carriers. It is as green as the source of the energy. But that is not a good reason to disqualify either. You have to start somewhere and EVs and hydrogen will probably emit lots of CO2 until nuclear power takes over from coal & gas.

      BTW next year Electriq~Fuel will start a pilot project in the Netherlands. Again a website with lots of marketing to emphasize on safety: https://www.electriq.com/technology/ (https://www.electriq.com/technology/) I don't quite trust the '60% water' claim but I have read about other systems which bind hydrogen to form a chemical compound. The hydrogen is released when needed. The advantage is that this system doesn't need high pressure vessels to store the hydrogen. I've come across similar systems so the idea isn't novel. It is like fueling a car with liquid (charged) electrolyte. Once the hydrogen is released the remaining chemical compound is to be recycled. Don't ask me about efficiency numbers. I have none and it seems to me this technology is too new to dig into deeply.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on February 22, 2019, 06:54:11 pm
      When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
      Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.
      Ha. When I was 16 I would have LOVED to have a car that I could refill for 'free" by just plugging it in at my parents house.  My main limitation driving at that age was not having money to buy gasoline.
      I'm quite sure you'll put a lock on the outlet if your kid starts to run the electricity bill up to hundreds of dollars extra per month.

      Not a chance. At $0.075/kWh and at most 12 kWh to fill up a completely empty Volt battery overnight, it will not be an issue. You continue to show that you really don’t have a clue about the cost of driving an EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 22, 2019, 07:29:46 pm
      When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
      Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.
      Ha. When I was 16 I would have LOVED to have a car that I could refill for 'free" by just plugging it in at my parents house.  My main limitation driving at that age was not having money to buy gasoline.
      I'm quite sure you'll put a lock on the outlet if your kid starts to run the electricity bill up to hundreds of dollars extra per month.
      Not a chance. At $0.075/kWh and at most 12 kWh to fill up a completely empty Volt battery overnight, it will not be an issue. You continue to show that you really don’t have a clue about the cost of driving an EV.
      Well, you don't seem to have a clue that your electricity is extremely (unlikely) cheap. I'm paying $0.30 per kWh against the current dollar/euro exchange rate if I could charge at home and that price is similar across Europe on average. When charging at a public charging points prices easely rise up to $0.70 per kWh over here. At these prices an EV makes no sense compared to an efficient ICE car.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: jmelson on February 22, 2019, 08:29:42 pm
      I've had an idea: do the water electrolysis deep down in the Mariana Trench and get the H2 compressed for free. How about that? And you get chlorine too, for free.
      I worked on a project 40 years ago that was going to use a solar-heated high pressure cell for electrolysis.  The idea was that by doing the electrolysis at near the dissociation point for water, it took VERY little energy to separate the H from the O.  Then, you got the H already at high pressure, for easy storage in a cylinder.  Or, you got it already hot, for conversion into Ammonia.  The original design had been done for NASA by ThermoElectron, and it was all inch-thick quartz windows, sapphire insulators and platinum electrodes, but the PE was quire sure that all that expensive stuff could be replaced with more affordable materials.

      Oh, and pumping the liquid water into the cell under pressure is no different than the feedwater pump on a boiler.  It doesn't take THAT much energy.

      Jon
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 22, 2019, 08:32:32 pm
      Not a chance. At $0.075/kWh and at most 12 kWh to fill up a completely empty Volt battery overnight, it will not be an issue. You continue to show that you really don’t have a clue about the cost of driving an EV.
      Well, you don't seem to have a clue that your electricity is extremely (unlikely) cheap. I'm paying $0.30 per kWh against the current dollar/euro exchange rate if I could charge at home and that price is similar across Europe on average. When charging at a public charging points prices easely rise up to $0.70 per kWh over here. At these prices an EV makes no sense compared to an efficient ICE car.

      ...and with 12 kWh (12*0.85=10.2) an EV can do 60 km at best.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 22, 2019, 10:27:44 pm
      The general claim for using Hydrogen is that you can fill it just as fast as an ICE car. For some reason not all hydrogen fueling stations can supply hydrogen fast so fueling takes longer (still the time is much shorter than charging an EV for the same range). I don't know how and why some hydrogen fueling stations are slow and others are fast and how to recognise them. As more hydrogen fueling stations will be built this should become more clear over time.

      Whether hydrogen is more expensive or not depends on the fuel prices. In the Netherlands the price of hydrogen is on par with normal fuel prices. My current car is more expensive to run on fuel compared to hydrogen. A more efficient car will be cheaper to run.

      And sure hydrogen comes from fossil fuels just like electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels. Hydrogen and batteries are energy carriers. It is as green as the source of the energy. But that is not a good reason to disqualify either. You have to start somewhere and EVs and hydrogen will probably emit lots of CO2 until nuclear power takes over from coal & gas.

      BTW next year Electriq~Fuel will start a pilot project in the Netherlands. Again a website with lots of marketing to emphasize on safety: https://www.electriq.com/technology/ (https://www.electriq.com/technology/) I don't quite trust the '60% water' claim but I have read about other systems which bind hydrogen to form a chemical compound. The hydrogen is released when needed. The advantage is that this system doesn't need high pressure vessels to store the hydrogen. I've come across similar systems so the idea isn't novel. It is like fueling a car with liquid (charged) electrolyte. Once the hydrogen is released the remaining chemical compound is to be recycled. Don't ask me about efficiency numbers. I have none and it seems to me this technology is too new to dig into deeply.

      Another Theranos?  Sure sounds like it.  This is laughable.  You do realize that an internal combustion engine extracts hydrogen from the fuel to power the vehicle and create electricity for the car.  The CEO says no studies are needed because we say we have actual performance showing it works.  In other words "Trust Us". 

      nctninco I know you say you don't drink, smoke dope, use drugs are believe in applying critical thinking skills.  So how can your mind be so distorted to believe in the claims this company is making without providing any proof except for their web site and press releases. 

      Dude you have to be so high on drugs to believe this could even possibly work.  The laws of physics and chemistry all state this would be impossible.  Care to explain why you think it might work?


      The startup says it's developed a safe, cheap and clean fuel. It's 60% water, and works with technology that extracts hydrogen from the fuel, then harnesses it to create electricity to power a vehicle.

      To which some people may say, is this too good to be true? Are there endorsements or studies to back that up?

      Guy Michrowski, CEO of the Australian-Israeli startup responds: "The claims are based on experimental results and prototype testing that are shared with customers on a confidential basis. Those back the claims by actual performance rather than studies."

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on February 22, 2019, 10:46:16 pm
      https://www.electriq.com/technology/ (https://www.electriq.com/technology/) I don't quite trust the '60% water' claim but I have read about other systems which bind hydrogen to form a chemical compound.

      No energy efficient Sodium Metaborate -> Sodium Borohydride conversion has ever been shown. It's perfectly possible they have the technology and developed it without publishing scientific papers, just highly fucking unlikely. Any public money betting on it without them actually having peer review on the recycling component is throwing away public money at what are most certainly scammers. Who will never be caught or prosecuted for it.

      So business as usual.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 22, 2019, 10:46:57 pm
      The general claim for using Hydrogen is that you can fill it just as fast as an ICE car. For some reason not all hydrogen fueling stations can supply hydrogen fast so fueling takes longer (still the time is much shorter than charging an EV for the same range). I don't know how and why some hydrogen fueling stations are slow and others are fast and how to recognise them. As more hydrogen fueling stations will be built this should become more clear over time.

      Whether hydrogen is more expensive or not depends on the fuel prices. In the Netherlands the price of hydrogen is on par with normal fuel prices. My current car is more expensive to run on fuel compared to hydrogen. A more efficient car will be cheaper to run.

      And sure hydrogen comes from fossil fuels just like electricity for EVs comes from fossil fuels. Hydrogen and batteries are energy carriers. It is as green as the source of the energy. But that is not a good reason to disqualify either. You have to start somewhere and EVs and hydrogen will probably emit lots of CO2 until nuclear power takes over from coal & gas.

      BTW next year Electriq~Fuel will start a pilot project in the Netherlands. Again a website with lots of marketing to emphasize on safety: https://www.electriq.com/technology/ (https://www.electriq.com/technology/) I don't quite trust the '60% water' claim but I have read about other systems which bind hydrogen to form a chemical compound. The hydrogen is released when needed. The advantage is that this system doesn't need high pressure vessels to store the hydrogen. I've come across similar systems so the idea isn't novel. It is like fueling a car with liquid (charged) electrolyte. Once the hydrogen is released the remaining chemical compound is to be recycled. Don't ask me about efficiency numbers. I have none and it seems to me this technology is too new to dig into deeply.

      Another Theranos?  Sure sounds like it.  This is laughable.  You do realize that an internal combustion engine extracts hydrogen from the fuel to power the vehicle and create electricity for the car.  The CEO says no studies are needed because we say we have actual performance showing it works.  In other words "Trust Us". 

      nctninco I know you say you don't drink, smoke dope, use drugs are believe in applying critical thinking skills.  So how can your mind be so distorted to believe in the claims this company is making without providing any proof except for their web site and press releases. 
      I explicitely wrote that I have no opinion on whether this is feasable or not. I don't have the information. I just know that they are not the only ones doing research in this direction and the idea isn't new. You on the other hand seem to dismiss it based on no facts and poor understanding of the concept (as usual). Please share you back-of-the-envelope calculations. However as expected you judged without fully understanding the concept. There isn't a combustion engine in the 'liquid hydrogen carrier' concept:

      (https://www.electriq.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Electriq_Car-v4.jpg)

      In step 2 the hydrogen is seperated from the liquid, step 3 is a regular fuel cell to convert hydrogen into electricity and part 4 is an electric motor.

      Again, I have no opinion on feasability or efficiency. I just wanted to share what was in the local news today because it is an interesting development to follow since it seems they are going to do a real test outside a laboratory. Doing a field test at least shows they are willing to put their money where their mouth is.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on February 22, 2019, 10:51:08 pm
      The hydrogen generation isn't the big problem, it's recycling the sodium metaborate without wasting a metric fuckton of energy.

      A similar problem to Zinc/Aluminium/Iron Air batteries, energetically the processes could be reversible without wasting a lot of energy ... chemically we have no idea how to do it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 22, 2019, 10:56:21 pm
      The hydrogen generation isn't the big problem, it's recycling the sodium metaborate without wasting a metric fuckton of energy.
      That is my understanding too from what I have read so far. I'm just wondering if people from Electriq~Fuel have found a different method but I'm not a chemist and have no idea what is possible or not. But lets not forget the financial side of things. Storing 1kWh in a battery of a battery-EV costs several tens of cents due to the cost of manufacturing the battery. That financial inefficiency leaves a lot of room for a less energy efficient system to have a lower operating cost after all.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on February 22, 2019, 11:00:50 pm
      I doubt it will be able to compete with even Zinc air batteries ... the Sodium Metaborate recycling will almost certainly require hydrogen, so you will compound the losses from hydrogen generation and the metaborate to borohydride conversion. Suddenly the 50% round trip losses of a Zinc Air battery start looking less troublesome, and a Zinc air battery could be both mechanically and electrically recharged.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 22, 2019, 11:54:56 pm
      The problem with zinc-air is that the energy content seems to be around 100W per kg. Currently Li-ion sits somewhere around 300Wh per kg and even Li-ion batteries are considered heavy. The Electriq~Fuel system seems to offer a much higher power density. Currently they are at 40gram hydrogen per liter (with future improvements yadda yadda yadda). To take a car 100km you'll need 1kg of hydrogen. That translates to 25 liters of liquid per 100km. 500km of range would translate to 125 liters. Say that is 150kg to round it up. An EV would need 125kWh to cover 500km which translates to a battery with a mass of over 400kg.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on February 23, 2019, 01:59:32 am
      Zinc air is being designed for grid storage, the energy density for a portable optimized design wouldn't really be comparable. Theoretical energy density leaves plenty of room for improvement.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: drussell on February 23, 2019, 02:41:32 am
      To take a car 100km you'll need 1kg of hydrogen. That translates to 25 liters of liquid per 100km. 500km of range would translate to 125 liters. Say that is 150kg to round it up. An EV would need 125kWh to cover 500km which translates to a battery with a mass of over 400kg.

      Ahhh, except you neglected to factor in the containment vessel required to actually hold said hydrogen in the vehicle...

      This is where it becomes increasingly impractical.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on February 23, 2019, 03:08:29 am
      The liquid in question is probably sodium borohydride in very pure water, which will release hydrogen when flowing across a suitable catalyst.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 23, 2019, 04:13:26 am
      When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
      Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.

      Volt is a discontinued car.
      I recently bought my son a used one and it works great. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 23, 2019, 04:16:37 am

      Here in BC the fuel costs of a BEV are 1/7th that of the compatible ICE (given today's electricity/gasoline price), so the incentive is pretty high. 

      I'd like to see real world verifyable figures to support that.

      Seen so many claims of this when it does not add up. A favourite is to quote the cost of Filling an ICE and an EV and claiming one is cheaper than the other but not taking into account the ICE goes 4-6x further than the EV.

      Tesla had a page on it's site here showing it's car was cheaper to run over 1500KM. Typically with their endless bullshit and lies, the calculation took into account the 400KWH of free supercharging that came with every new Vehicle.  The first 1500Km may have been cheaper but the next and every subsequent 1500km was far from cheap at all.

      I don't trust any claims made by the greenwashed because they have proven to exaggerate and lie either by omission or otherwise on so many things in their desperation to push their cult and turn everyone to converts.

      In any case, I see any EV price advantage to be short lived.
      As more EV's put more pressure on grids around the world that will need to be upgraded and have billions spent on infrastructure the price of power WILL  go up as it continues to do here at an economic crippling rate.
      At the same time as fuel sales go down, the cartels will start leveling the playing field and reducing the now artificially inflated cost of fuel.
      Anyone that thinks the oil industry is just going to sit on it's arse and seen their profits go down the gurgler without fighting it is a moron.

      The scenarios are always painted as nice and straight forward but reality is anything but.

      george80 you are absolutely correct.  I live in California and our power company by the end of this year will have everyone on a Time of Use Billing which will greatly complicate EV.  Depending on the rate plan a kWhr ranges from $0.12 to $0.87.  Will people have to "fill-up" when the power company is charging  $0.87 kWhr?  They sure would if they don't want to walk home.  For a Tesla this would be over twice if not close to three times what it would cost to fuel and ICE car with gasoline.

      Now if one has solar panels and can sell electricity to the power company this changes everything as you can sell kHrs to the power company at $0.87kWhr and then buy back those kWhrs for only $0.12.  But then one has to factor in the $35,000 Tesla/Solar City charges for the solar panels.

      As someone who owns an electric car in California the annual cost difference between "fueling" an EV and an ICE is a difference of a few hundred dollars.  And as electricity rates increase it's going to be even less.

      The big advantage with EVs other than BSing people into thinking they are doing something "good" for the planet is they cause the pollution in someone else's backyard.  There is no cost "real" cost savings.
      The reason we have TOD billing is solar.  The low rates happen during the day and after 9 pm at night.  The high rates are from 6 to 9 pm. 

      The solution is to have batteries with you solar system. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 23, 2019, 04:24:47 am
      When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
      Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.
      Ha. When I was 16 I would have LOVED to have a car that I could refill for 'free" by just plugging it in at my parents house.  My main limitation driving at that age was not having money to buy gasoline.
      I'm quite sure you'll put a lock on the outlet if your kid starts to run the electricity bill up to hundreds of dollars extra per month.

      Not a chance. At $0.075/kWh and at most 12 kWh to fill up a completely empty Volt battery overnight, it will not be an issue. You continue to show that you really don’t have a clue about the cost of driving an EV.
      I think you made an error with the decimal place.  It's 0.75 $/kWh. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 23, 2019, 05:01:29 am

      The solution is to have batteries with you solar system.

      The soloution to what exactly?
      Please make the answer a realistic one and not some green washed flawed rubbish theory.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 23, 2019, 05:06:38 am

      Here in BC the fuel costs of a BEV are 1/7th that of the compatible ICE (given today's electricity/gasoline price), so the incentive is pretty high. 

      I'd like to see real world verifyable figures to support that.

      Seen so many claims of this when it does not add up. A favourite is to quote the cost of Filling an ICE and an EV and claiming one is cheaper than the other but not taking into account the ICE goes 4-6x further than the EV.

      Tesla had a page on it's site here showing it's car was cheaper to run over 1500KM. Typically with their endless bullshit and lies, the calculation took into account the 400KWH of free supercharging that came with every new Vehicle.  The first 1500Km may have been cheaper but the next and every subsequent 1500km was far from cheap at all.

      I don't trust any claims made by the greenwashed because they have proven to exaggerate and lie either by omission or otherwise on so many things in their desperation to push their cult and turn everyone to converts.

      In any case, I see any EV price advantage to be short lived.
      As more EV's put more pressure on grids around the world that will need to be upgraded and have billions spent on infrastructure the price of power WILL  go up as it continues to do here at an economic crippling rate.
      At the same time as fuel sales go down, the cartels will start leveling the playing field and reducing the now artificially inflated cost of fuel.
      Anyone that thinks the oil industry is just going to sit on it's arse and seen their profits go down the gurgler without fighting it is a moron.

      The scenarios are always painted as nice and straight forward but reality is anything but.

      george80 you are absolutely correct.  I live in California and our power company by the end of this year will have everyone on a Time of Use Billing which will greatly complicate EV.  Depending on the rate plan a kWhr ranges from $0.12 to $0.87.  Will people have to "fill-up" when the power company is charging  $0.87 kWhr?  They sure would if they don't want to walk home.  For a Tesla this would be over twice if not close to three times what it would cost to fuel and ICE car with gasoline.

      Now if one has solar panels and can sell electricity to the power company this changes everything as you can sell kHrs to the power company at $0.87kWhr and then buy back those kWhrs for only $0.12.  But then one has to factor in the $35,000 Tesla/Solar City charges for the solar panels.

      As someone who owns an electric car in California the annual cost difference between "fueling" an EV and an ICE is a difference of a few hundred dollars.  And as electricity rates increase it's going to be even less.

      The big advantage with EVs other than BSing people into thinking they are doing something "good" for the planet is they cause the pollution in someone else's backyard.  There is no cost "real" cost savings.
      The reason we have TOD billing is solar.  The low rates happen during the day and after 9 pm at night.  The high rates are from 6 to 9 pm. 

      The solution is to have batteries with you solar system.

      In California where we have Time of Use billing the WORST thing one could do is get batteries.  Why pay for batteries when the power company will buy your excess electricity during the day for $.50 kWhr and later that same day you can buy it back for only $0.12 kWhr.  One would be a fool to buy batteries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 23, 2019, 06:00:03 am

      One would be a fool to buy batteries.

      THAT is the correct/ logical/ realistic/ truthful answer.
      And the only one.

      We don't have such a beneficial power pricing scheme in Oz but no matter where you are in the world from what I have seen, there is NO where in the world batteries make any sense right now nor will do for the forseeable future.
      The price would have to be about 1/3rd of what they are now to get in the ball park no matter what you pay for power.
       Some places have batterys than others but where the batterys are cheaper the power is too canceling out any ROI advantage.

      I have seen all sorts of convoluted, complicated and green washed calculations to try and prove otherwise but the equations is very simple.
      At 100% utilization 100% of the time, they simply cannot save enough power for it's value to repay it's cost in a valid time frame being the lifetime of the battery. The exception maybe a DIY system using forklift packs or the like but certainly no Powerbore  or similar plug and play type battery has any valid Financial benefit.

      Oh yeah, we can spin doctor the argument as well and say I bought one for blackout power which,
      1. is still not saving power and is a totaly different scenario, and,
      2, You are a fool for paying far too much for an overpriced solution when there are far better and cheaper alternatives.

      If you buy a battery to "save the environment",  Well I won't nominate fitting and applicable names but lets just say you are either a product or sucker of the PC greenwashed.

      I bought 3 Diesel engines this week and 2 Generator heads.  All working or brand new.  $300 all up.  One needs a new belt, the other would need the head and the engine mounted and hooked up.  Lets play devils advocate and call it $200 to make a nice Figure of $500.  Where a battery lasts hours, I can run everything and lot more than a battery can till the cows come home..... in 6 months time. And I still have a spare engine.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 23, 2019, 06:42:22 am

      One would be a fool to buy batteries.

      THAT is the correct/ logical/ realistic/ truthful answer.
      And the only one.

      We don't have such a beneficial power pricing scheme in Oz but no matter where you are in the world from what I have seen, there is NO where in the world batteries make any sense right now nor will do for the forseeable future.
      The price would have to be about 1/3rd of what they are now to get in the ball park no matter what you pay for power.
       Some places have batterys than others but where the batterys are cheaper the power is too canceling out any ROI advantage.

      I have seen all sorts of convoluted, complicated and green washed calculations to try and prove otherwise but the equations is very simple.
      At 100% utilization 100% of the time, they simply cannot save enough power for it's value to repay it's cost in a valid time frame being the lifetime of the battery. The exception maybe a DIY system using forklift packs or the like but certainly no Powerbore  or similar plug and play type battery has any valid Financial benefit.

      Oh yeah, we can spin doctor the argument as well and say I bought one for blackout power which,
      1. is still not saving power and is a totaly different scenario, and,
      2, You are a fool for paying far too much for an overpriced solution when there are far better and cheaper alternatives.

      If you buy a battery to "save the environment",  Well I won't nominate fitting and applicable names but lets just say you are either a product or sucker of the PC greenwashed.

      I bought 3 Diesel engines this week and 2 Generator heads.  All working or brand new.  $300 all up.  One needs a new belt, the other would need the head and the engine mounted and hooked up.  Lets play devils advocate and call it $200 to make a nice Figure of $500.  Where a battery lasts hours, I can run everything and lot more than a battery can till the cows come home..... in 6 months time. And I still have a spare engine.

      Another reason not to use batteries is the heat loss.  Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries.   During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat.  When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat.  So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat.  That's like going to the bank and opening a savings account.  For every dollar you put in the bank, the bank gives you $0.60 back.  (The other $0.40 is used to heat the bank.) 
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 23, 2019, 09:47:37 am
      To take a car 100km you'll need 1kg of hydrogen. That translates to 25 liters of liquid per 100km. 500km of range would translate to 125 liters. Say that is 150kg to round it up. An EV would need 125kWh to cover 500km which translates to a battery with a mass of over 400kg.

      Ahhh, except you neglected to factor in the containment vessel required to actually hold said hydrogen in the vehicle...

      This is where it becomes increasingly impractical.
      No, the idea behind keeping hydrogen in a liquid is that you can keep it in a regular thin walled fuel tank. OTOH Toyota already has figured out how to build a safe high pressure hydrogen tank for their Mirai (IMHO they went a little bit overboard by making it -litterally- bullet proof) so either way storing the hydrogen is solved. It all comes down to operational costs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 23, 2019, 09:51:05 am
      Zinc air is being designed for grid storage, the energy density for a portable optimized design wouldn't really be comparable. Theoretical energy density leaves plenty of room for improvement.
      For grid storage it would be interesting but the batteries will need to be really really cheap and be able to endure 50k cycles or more to become cost effective. Something Lithium battery technology is unlikely to achieve.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 23, 2019, 10:12:30 am
      [...] Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries.   During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat.  When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat.  So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat. [...]

      For the third time Doug, please, where is that video? Have you got the url?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 23, 2019, 10:28:33 am
      [...] Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries.   During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat.  When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat.  So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat. [...]

      For the third time Doug, please, where is that video? Have you got the url?
      Same here. AFAIK someone already debunked Doug's numbers earlier on in this thread.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 23, 2019, 02:21:03 pm

      The solution is to have batteries with you solar system.

      The soloution to what exactly?
      Please make the answer a realistic one and not some green washed flawed rubbish theory.
      Store solar energy in the day and then when you need it on peak demand use the batteries.  People do this all the time. 

      Why are you insulting me? 
       
      This stuff is commercially available. 

      https://solartechonline.com/home-energy-storage/?gclid=Cj0KCQiA-8PjBRCWARIsADc18TI1WHTceCCSdr0U6Jt1fFtotZRiXxGmFRnT2b39E3_6pyret-VBwHMaAgvtEALw_wcB


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 23, 2019, 02:25:14 pm

      The solution is to have batteries with you solar system.

      The soloution to what exactly?
      Please make the answer a realistic one and not some green washed flawed rubbish theory.
      Store solar energy in the day and then when you need it on peak demand use the batteries.  People do this all the time. 

      Why are you insulting me? 
       
      This stuff is commercially available. 

      https://solartechonline.com/home-energy-storage/?gclid=Cj0KCQiA-8PjBRCWARIsADc18TI1WHTceCCSdr0U6Jt1fFtotZRiXxGmFRnT2b39E3_6pyret-VBwHMaAgvtEALw_wcB
      I think george80 was looking for a more general solution than one that only works in one of the small number of places where a high level of insolation is guaranteed every day of the entire year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 23, 2019, 02:36:44 pm
      [...] Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries.   During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat.  When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat.  So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat. [...]

      For the third time Doug, please, where is that video? Have you got the url?
      Same here. AFAIK someone already debunked Doug's numbers earlier on in this thread.

      Does ave have an ubdex of his videos?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 23, 2019, 02:39:44 pm
      To take a car 100km you'll need 1kg of hydrogen. That translates to 25 liters of liquid per 100km. 500km of range would translate to 125 liters. Say that is 150kg to round it up. An EV would need 125kWh to cover 500km which translates to a battery with a mass of over 400kg.

      Ahhh, except you neglected to factor in the containment vessel required to actually hold said hydrogen in the vehicle...

      This is where it becomes increasingly impractical.
      No, the idea behind keeping hydrogen in a liquid is that you can keep it in a regular thin walled fuel tank. OTOH Toyota already has figured out how to build a safe high pressure hydrogen tank for their Mirai (IMHO they went a little bit overboard by making it -litterally- bullet proof) so either way storing the hydrogen is solved. It all comes down to operational costs.

      Problem with Ftdrogen if there’s a leak it odorless and colorless and really likes to explode.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 23, 2019, 02:42:31 pm

      One would be a fool to buy batteries.

      THAT is the correct/ logical/ realistic/ truthful answer.
      And the only one.

      We don't have such a beneficial power pricing scheme in Oz but no matter where you are in the world from what I have seen, there is NO where in the world batteries make any sense right now nor will do for the forseeable future.
      The price would have to be about 1/3rd of what they are now to get in the ball park no matter what you pay for power.
       Some places have batterys than others but where the batterys are cheaper the power is too canceling out any ROI advantage.

      I have seen all sorts of convoluted, complicated and green washed calculations to try and prove otherwise but the equations is very simple.
      At 100% utilization 100% of the time, they simply cannot save enough power for it's value to repay it's cost in a valid time frame being the lifetime of the battery. The exception maybe a DIY system using forklift packs or the like but certainly no Powerbore  or similar plug and play type battery has any valid Financial benefit.

      Oh yeah, we can spin doctor the argument as well and say I bought one for blackout power which,
      1. is still not saving power and is a totaly different scenario, and,
      2, You are a fool for paying far too much for an overpriced solution when there are far better and cheaper alternatives.

      If you buy a battery to "save the environment",  Well I won't nominate fitting and applicable names but lets just say you are either a product or sucker of the PC greenwashed.

      I bought 3 Diesel engines this week and 2 Generator heads.  All working or brand new.  $300 all up.  One needs a new belt, the other would need the head and the engine mounted and hooked up.  Lets play devils advocate and call it $200 to make a nice Figure of $500.  Where a battery lasts hours, I can run everything and lot more than a battery can till the cows come home..... in 6 months time. And I still have a spare engine.

      Another reason not to use batteries is the heat loss.  Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries.   During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat.  When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat.  So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat.  That's like going to the bank and opening a savings account.  For every dollar you put in the bank, the bank gives you $0.60 back.  (The other $0.40 is used to heat the bank.)

      Lithium batteries are better than 20%.  But they are not 100% efficient. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 23, 2019, 03:12:53 pm
      The wholesale rate for electricity credits in San Diego, CA is .04162 $/kW-hr in Feb of 2019.  Last summer it was .034.  The peak demand rate in the summer is .6 $/kW-hr.  That's between 6 and 9 pm. 

      I don't know how the economics works on this but it is not net metering.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 23, 2019, 03:15:30 pm
      No, the idea behind keeping hydrogen in a liquid is that you can keep it in a regular thin walled fuel tank. OTOH Toyota already has figured out how to build a safe high pressure hydrogen tank for their Mirai (IMHO they went a little bit overboard by making it -litterally- bullet proof) so either way storing the hydrogen is solved. It all comes down to operational costs.
      Toyota, Honda, Hyundai and others have all figured out how to make a hydrogen tank for a car, but I don't think any of them consider it a solved problem. The costs are horrendous, and the performance of valves, and other fittings, with the small size of hydrogen molecules, is problematic. The size and weight of the current tanks are also an issue.

      I find your point about bullet proofing the tank rather odd. Do you want to approve a design that would form a rather effective bomb in an accident? These things are an enormous risk compare to a gasoline, diesel, LPG or CNG tank.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 23, 2019, 03:25:30 pm
      The wholesale rate for electricity credits in San Diego, CA is .04162 $/kW-hr in Feb of 2019.  Last summer it was .034.  The peak demand rate in the summer is .6 $/kW-hr.  That's between 6 and 9 pm. 

      I don't know how the economics works on this but it is not net metering.

      San Diego has net metering and your rates from what I understand is close to PG&E.  You are able to sell electricity to the power company when rates are high and buy the electricty back the same day when rates are lower.  Get on the “right” rate plan and there is a 400% spread between what you sell and buy electricity at. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 23, 2019, 03:31:47 pm
      [...] Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries.   During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat.  When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat.  So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat. [...]

      For the third time Doug, please, where is that video? Have you got the url?

      Turns out it is even worse than what Dave state’s in his videos.  Lead Acid batteries can loose up to 50% in heat loss due to Peukert”s law.

      https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lead-acid-battery-downsides/ (https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lead-acid-battery-downsides/)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on February 23, 2019, 03:49:57 pm
      The wholesale rate for electricity credits in San Diego, CA is .04162 $/kW-hr in Feb of 2019.  Last summer it was .034.  The peak demand rate in the summer is .6 $/kW-hr.  That's between 6 and 9 pm. 

      I don't know how the economics works on this but it is not net metering.

      San Diego has net metering and your rates from what I understand is close to PG&E.  You are able to sell electricity to the power company when rates are high and buy the electricty back the same day when rates are lower.  Get on the “right” rate plan and there is a 400% spread between what you sell and buy electricity at.

      That's not true.  For some reason the links I posted did not show up?  This link is from SDGE with a list of the credit you get for excess energy production.  This varies with time so this is historical but includes this month. 

      https://www.sdge.com/residential/savings-center/solar-power-renewable-energy/net-energy-metering/billing-information/excess-generation (https://www.sdge.com/residential/savings-center/solar-power-renewable-energy/net-energy-metering/billing-information/excess-generation)

      Andy




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 23, 2019, 04:30:49 pm
      Lithium batteries are better than 20%.  But they are not 100% efficient.

      And if you use them, for example with a powerwall, to charge your EV then you end up with 0.8*0.8= 64% efficiency.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 23, 2019, 05:42:19 pm
      [...] Dave a few years ago made a video on the heat loss with lead acid batteries.   During charging 20% of the electricity used to charge the battery is lost as heat.  When discharging there's a 20% loss to heat.  So between charging and discharging one loses 40% to heat. [...]

      For the third time Doug, please, where is that video? Have you got the url?

      Turns out it is even worse than what Dave state’s in his videos.  Lead Acid batteries can loose up to 50% in heat loss due to Peukert”s law.

      https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lead-acid-battery-downsides/ (https://www.powertechsystems.eu/home/tech-corner/lead-acid-battery-downsides/)
      But only if you use them at sub-optimal charging / discharging conditions. Say you have a 150V lead acid bank with 200Ah capacity. At C/20 you can draw 10A (1500W) from it without degrading the rated capacity.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on February 23, 2019, 06:41:36 pm

      Here in BC the fuel costs of a BEV are 1/7th that of the compatible ICE (given today's electricity/gasoline price), so the incentive is pretty high. 

      I'd like to see real world verifyable figures to support that.

      I've posted it here on a couple of occasions, but here we go again; VW eGolf vs VW Golf (Canadian spec).

      eGolf: 17.4kWh/100km (this matches up pretty well with my real-world from the socket numbers https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363))
      Golf: 8.5l/100km (automatic combined city/highway per NRC CAN reports https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002))

      Price of electricity: $0.0884/kWh + 5% rate rider + 5%GST = $0.0975/kWh (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html))
      Price of gasoline: $1.379/l (https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPrices/British%20Columbia/New%20Westminster (https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPrices/British%20Columbia/New%20Westminster))

      100km on electricity: 17.4 * 0.0975 = $1.70
      100km on gasoline: 8.5 * 1.379 = $11.72
      6.9x times more expensive on gasoline

      So, I'll stick to my 1/7th number (as gasoline has ranged from 1.269 to 1.559 in the last 6 months)

      and I'm ready for the stupid responses
      1) Those numbers aren't real. -- Yes, they are. Not only do they match what I see, they match the government numbers pretty closely see above references)
      2) You picked the automatic -- Yes, it's the most closely comparible
      3) Your electricity prices aren't that low.  -- see above reference
      4) Your gasoline prices aren't that high -- see above reference
      5) You picked a gas guzziling version of the car. -- I picked the equivalent.  Diesel versions are not available in North America
      6) You're not comparing apples to apples -- Don't know how much closer you can get comparing a gasoline vs the electric version of basically the same car.
      7) You're not including charging losses -- yes I am, this are real world from the socket numbers off my EVSE



      and back to the original question:
      Q: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      A: They already have
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 23, 2019, 06:51:57 pm
      Still your situation is very special compared to the rest of the world when it comes to electricity prices. Also, free charging isn't going to be around forever where you live so if you want to drive for low cost your EV is going to be confined to half it's range from your home. Otherwise expect paying $0.50 per kWh for public charging. Companies will want to recoup the costs of the charging infrastructure. See the increased prices Tesla is charging their customer for charging their cars.

      If you add everything up then you have to see electric cars will never be mainstream. Batteries are not financially viable for long range transportation and infrastructure costs are way too high compared to the alternatives.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: drussell on February 23, 2019, 09:38:16 pm
      I've posted it here on a couple of occasions, but here we go again; VW eGolf vs VW Golf (Canadian spec).

      eGolf: 17.4kWh/100km (this matches up pretty well with my real-world from the socket numbers https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363))
      Golf: 8.5l/100km (automatic combined city/highway per NRC CAN reports https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002))

      Price of electricity: $0.0884/kWh + 5% rate rider + 5%GST = $0.0975/kWh (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html))
      Price of gasoline: $1.379/l (https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPrices/British%20Columbia/New%20Westminster (https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPrices/British%20Columbia/New%20Westminster))

      100km on electricity: 17.4 * 0.0975 = $1.70
      100km on gasoline: 8.5 * 1.379 = $11.72
      6.9x times more expensive on gasoline

      What are the numbers once you just look at the energy cost and remove all the road taxes that are currently only applied to gasoline vehicles and are not yet charged on electric vehicles?

      Wow, $1.379 in B.C. right now.  Oof...  It's $0.879 here in Calgary.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: hammy on February 23, 2019, 10:02:29 pm
      100km on electricity: 17.4 * 0.0975 = $1.70
      100km on gasoline: 8.5 * 1.379 = $11.72
      6.9x times more expensive on gasoline
      So, I'll stick to my 1/7th number (as gasoline has ranged from 1.269 to 1.559 in the last 6 months)

      I can provide a comparison from germany. I drive my EV now since more than a year, my daily commute is 140km (87miles). The sum over the year is 30.000km (18.600 miles).
      Hyundai Ioniq: 14kWh/100 * 0,25€ * 30.000km = 1050€
      Mercedes C-Class (diesel): 7L/100 * 1,35€ * 30.000km = 2835€
      Diesel fuel is 2,7x times more expensive.
      Other costs also count: No tax for the electric car (240€ a year). Maintenance and service costs is 600€ less for the EV.

      Over the year the EV is 2625€ cheaper (2977 USD or 3910 CAD).
      That is a difference of 218€ a month (247 USD or 325 CAD)  :-+
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on February 23, 2019, 10:02:39 pm
      I've posted it here on a couple of occasions, but here we go again; VW eGolf vs VW Golf (Canadian spec).

      eGolf: 17.4kWh/100km (this matches up pretty well with my real-world from the socket numbers https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363))
      Golf: 8.5l/100km (automatic combined city/highway per NRC CAN reports https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002))

      Price of electricity: $0.0884/kWh + 5% rate rider + 5%GST = $0.0975/kWh (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html (https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/residential-rates.html))
      Price of gasoline: $1.379/l (https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPrices/British%20Columbia/New%20Westminster (https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPrices/British%20Columbia/New%20Westminster))

      100km on electricity: 17.4 * 0.0975 = $1.70
      100km on gasoline: 8.5 * 1.379 = $11.72
      6.9x times more expensive on gasoline

      What are the numbers once you just look at the energy cost and remove all the road taxes that are currently only applied to gasoline vehicles and are not yet charged on electric vehicles?

      Wow, $1.379 in B.C. right now.  Oof...  It's $0.879 here in Calgary.

      While Alberta has [much] lower gasoline prices, it actually has lower electric rates (slightly) as well.  You'd probably still see 4-5x more expensive on gasoline.

      BC has high fuel costs due to lack of refining capacity in the North West, which is due to lack of supply, which is due to the lack of pipeline capacity.  For some reason people think it's better to have barrels of refined fuel coming in by tanker, than some excess going out. (yes, I drive an EV and think the anti-pipeline people are idiots)  The metro Vancouver taxes are (0.067/l) BC fuel (road) tax, and public transit tax (0.12/l).  Even dropping those from the prices still make it well worthwhile.  Also, I fully expect electricity rates to go to day/night rates, in the next few years, and that will lower my electricity charging costs.

      Even if you do the math plugging in someone else in the world electricity/fuel costs (for example Netherlands at €0.22/kwH and €1.70/l), the numbers are still compelling for an EV
      €3.83 (electric 100km) vs €14.45 (gasoline 100km)

      The 200ish km range really hasn't effected me too much, as the car is used 99% of the time for a 20km commute (ea way), and that's pretty much the perfect use case.  The quiet and smoothness were just added benefits I hadn't considered when I bought it, but wow, it would be hard to go back now.  Oh, and the office has charging :-)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on February 23, 2019, 10:05:58 pm
      100km on electricity: 17.4 * 0.0975 = $1.70
      100km on gasoline: 8.5 * 1.379 = $11.72
      6.9x times more expensive on gasoline
      So, I'll stick to my 1/7th number (as gasoline has ranged from 1.269 to 1.559 in the last 6 months)

      I can provide a comparison from germany. I drive my EV now since more than a year, my daily commute is 140km (87miles). The sum over the year is 30.000km (18.600 miles).
      Hyundai Ioniq: 14kWh/100 * 0,25€ * 30.000km = 1050€
      Mercedes C-Class (diesel): 7L/100 * 1,35€ * 30.000km = 2835€
      Diesel fuel is 2,7x times more expensive.
      Other costs also count: No tax for the electric car (240€ a year). Maintenance and service costs is 600€ less for the EV.

      Over the year the EV is 2625€ cheaper (2977 USD or 3910 CAD).
      That is a difference of 218€ a month (247 USD or 325 CAD)  :-+

      I suspect the Ioniq number is a bit low (if that's what the car reports, there's probably another 2kWh/100km lost in charging), but still it shows that it can work in a large European country. 
      Thanks for the numbers Hammy.

      and again it answers the question:
      Q: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      A: They already have
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: hammy on February 23, 2019, 10:12:22 pm
      I suspect the Ioniq number is a bit low (if that's what the car reports, there's probably another 2kWh/100km lost in charging), but still it shows that it can work in a large European country. 

      It is the number from my trip meter. Add 10% for charging loss and count in a flat topography. Numbers like this are quite normal for long range trips: https://www.goingelectric.de/forum/download/file.php?id=66946&t=1 (https://www.goingelectric.de/forum/download/file.php?id=66946&t=1)

      Anyway, every EV with an consumption less than 20kW/100 is cheaper to drive than a ICE-car.  :box:

       :D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 23, 2019, 10:27:12 pm
      100km on electricity: 17.4 * 0.0975 = $1.70
      100km on gasoline: 8.5 * 1.379 = $11.72
      6.9x times more expensive on gasoline
      So, I'll stick to my 1/7th number (as gasoline has ranged from 1.269 to 1.559 in the last 6 months)
      I can provide a comparison from germany. I drive my EV now since more than a year, my daily commute is 140km (87miles). The sum over the year is 30.000km (18.600 miles).
      Hyundai Ioniq: 14kWh/100 * 0,25€ * 30.000km = 1050€
      Mercedes C-Class (diesel): 7L/100 * 1,35€ * 30.000km = 2835€
      Diesel fuel is 2,7x times more expensive.
      Other costs also count: No tax for the electric car (240€ a year). Maintenance and service costs is 600€ less for the EV.

      Over the year the EV is 2625€ cheaper (2977 USD or 3910 CAD).
      That is a difference of 218€ a month (247 USD or 325 CAD)  :-+
      Note that you are comparing a very inefficient diesel car here. Also you are not factoring in the higher purchase price of the EV (and if you borrowed money the extra interest). So it isn't a real apples to apples comparison. I'm not quite sure you are actually saving money compared to buying an efficient ICE car if you look at the full picture.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: hammy on February 23, 2019, 10:37:19 pm
      I'm not quite sure you are actually saving money compared to buying an efficient ICE car if you look at the full picture.

       :-DD :-DD :-DD

      You are an Engineer? Do an Excel calculation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 23, 2019, 11:18:13 pm
      Well... you can buy much more efficient ICE cars, your electricity price for Germany seems to be low (according to my sources it is more like 30 to 35 cents per kWh) and you can already save at least 10k euro on the purchase price of the car. Not to mention that a second hand car is even cheaper to run. My car (station wagon; not a small clunker) costs around 17 euro cents per km all-in. Who is laughing now?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 24, 2019, 12:38:08 am
      The wholesale rate for electricity credits in San Diego, CA is .04162 $/kW-hr in Feb of 2019.  Last summer it was .034.  The peak demand rate in the summer is .6 $/kW-hr.  That's between 6 and 9 pm. 

      I don't know how the economics works on this but it is not net metering.

      San Diego has net metering and your rates from what I understand is close to PG&E.  You are able to sell electricity to the power company when rates are high and buy the electricty back the same day when rates are lower.  Get on the “right” rate plan and there is a 400% spread between what you sell and buy electricity at.

      That's not true.  For some reason the links I posted did not show up?  This link is from SDGE with a list of the credit you get for excess energy production.  This varies with time so this is historical but includes this month. 

      https://www.sdge.com/residential/savings-center/solar-power-renewable-energy/net-energy-metering/billing-information/excess-generation (https://www.sdge.com/residential/savings-center/solar-power-renewable-energy/net-energy-metering/billing-information/excess-generation)

      Andy


      Andy out of curiosity I looked at SDGE.  Like PG&E as a residential customer it appears you have 7 to 10 different rate plans to choose from.  Your rates are defiantly a bit lower than ours.  (From what I have seen.)

      Some of the links to the NEM agreement are broken so it's hard to tell what's going on.  But from what I have pieced together it looks like you have a monthly and an annual true-up.  PG&E only has a yearly.  It looks like your NEM agreement is based on KwHrs exported to SDGE and not the value of the kWhr at the time you sell is to SDGE.  It also looks like in your monthly true-up you only get wholesale rate for the electricity.  PG&E does not do that.  With PG&E we get to "sell" our excess kWhrs to PG&E at market rate.  And buy back at market rate.  With SDGE you just trade kWhrs with SDGE and not the value of the kWhr at the time you sell/our buy the kWhr.  But then you are paying a much lower rate for your kWhrs.
      https://www.sdge.com/residential/savings-center/solar-power-renewable-energy/net-energy-metering/billing-information/excess-generation (https://www.sdge.com/residential/savings-center/solar-power-renewable-energy/net-energy-metering/billing-information/excess-generation)   


      I know the power companies are trying to screw the customers over this entire solar thing.  This is a classic case of "disruption" to the power industry.  I know the first NEM agreement had with customers with PG&E was for trading kWhrs.  In other words if you have 1 extra kWhr you can lend it to the power company until you need it.  When you need it you can get that kWhr back regardless of the value of the kWhr when you loaned the kWhr to the power company or asked for it back.

      PG&E is only NEM 2.0 where the value of the kWhr is now factored in.  So during the day if I have an extra kWhr during Peak rate, I can "sell" that kWhr to the power company.  When I need kWatts back at say off-peak hrs I can get 4 for every kWhr I "sold" during peak.  That's a 400% return.  Looks like SDGE's not doing this.  Or at least not yet.

       https://www.sdge.com/residential/savings-center/solar-power-renewable-energy/net-energy-metering/billing-information/excess-generation (https://www.sdge.com/residential/savings-center/solar-power-renewable-energy/net-energy-metering/billing-information/excess-generation)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 01:00:20 am
      Store solar energy in the day and then when you need it on peak demand use the batteries.  People do this all the time. 

      Which costs far more than it saves, is detrimental in the big picture of resources and emissions in manufacturing and recycling as well as being a poor method of blackout backup. 

      As far as people doing it all the time, Yes, and people fall for scams and waste their money on useless and detrimental products like home batteries every day thinking they are achieving something when they are in fact going backwards.

      Quote
      Why are you insulting me? 

      I am not insulting you, I was insulting the parroted green theroys which are rubbish and I did not want to be bored with again.
      I see and hear the same old idiotic excuses repeated over and over again by people that never take the time to think about what they are saying and whether it is garbage or stands up to any logic. The green mentality is full to bursting with these concepts that are so flawed it's incredible but the sheeple just repeat them over and over as if saying something enough makes it fact even when it's laughable garbage.

      I wasn't trying to insult you but I will do my best to insult and belittle these garbage theroys people go on with  so they think what they are saying through and when they realise they are repeating flawed rubbish, perhaps they will turn their mind to things that ARE actually a worth while and provide a creditable and workable solution to the problems that exist.
       
      Quote
      This stuff is commercially available. 

      Yeah, Lots of scam/ useless/ waste of money products are. The TV has whole channels full of such rubbish. Seen batteries advertised there too... 1.2KW batteries that are supposed to save you fortunes on your power bill and " only " cost $3000!

      Ya!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 01:29:24 am

      Turns out it is even worse than what Dave state’s in his videos.  Lead Acid batteries can loose up to 50% in heat loss due to Peukert”s law.

      I don't know about heat loss and haven't watched the vids but I have understood for a long time that you had to put 50% more power into a battery ( LA) than what you got out.  My understanding was the loss is due to the chemical processes/ reactions.  Than may generate heat but either way, a 50% loss is how I have understood batteries to work for several decades.

      I have played with a lot of generators and it's pretty easy to see that when an alternator is putting out an amount of current and you are charging batteries that weren't' flat and had to put in more power than what you measured with a Kwh meter that there is a loss. Sure there is a curve as the charge falls off but the little meters I have measure total power and when you can put 100 Ah into a 100 AH battery that was far from flat, it illustrated the story very clearly.  Never been any surprise to me except on good battery's where the efficiency is better which does happen.

      That said, I have only found any noticeable battery heating at the last 20%  of final charge why you are running max charge rate to get them up as quick as possible.  When charging at lower rates the batteries remain at ambient.  Could be due to heat dissipation but I doubt it.

      For whatever Phenomenon is taking place, 50% greater input than what you get out is very old news in my understanding of things. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 02:02:24 am

      I've posted it here on a couple of occasions, but here we go again; VW eGolf vs VW Golf (Canadian spec).

      eGolf: 17.4kWh/100km (this matches up pretty well with my real-world from the socket numbers https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363))
      Golf: 8.5l/100km (automatic combined city/highway per NRC CAN reports https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002))
      5) You picked a gas guzziling version of the car. -- I picked the equivalent.  Diesel versions are not available in North America

      6) You're not comparing apples to apples -- Don't know how much closer you can get comparing a gasoline vs the electric version of basically the same car.

      Yeah well sorry but  while this may be a one off instance, I would say it's not applicable to a lot of people around the world for a number of reasons.

      1. You picked a car which is unusually economical on power and rather thirsty for it's size in the petrol Version.
      If I look at the list of cars on the ling you provided, 25-30 Kwh / 100 Km would be far more indicative of the great majority of vehicles on that list.

      Secondly, the petrol version is thirsty. We have full size 6 Cyl family cars that get better mileage than that. Look at the jap offerings like camrys that are sold the world over and are a much bigger car and they leave that consumption behind.

      2.  You use the gas version because the diesel that does 5L/ 100 is not available where you are.  No one gets power for .8c kwh here.
      Try running the comparison in a far wider world scenario of a diesel getting 5L 100 and power costing .30c kwh for a car that uses lets say 27Kwh 100 and I think the numbers will be different.

      3. What does an e golf and a gas golf cost where you are? From what I can see, the petrol golf is $21 K and the E golf is 31K.
      based on your numbers, that means the first 7400L of fuel are relatively free in the petrol version over the savings over the electric. Multiply that by the said 8.5L 100 and that translates to 63,000 KM paid for.

      Of course then you have to take into account interest paid or lost on the $10K difference and what I would guarantee will be a Huge hit on resale value of the electric once all these newer, cheaper electrics come out over the next 4-5 Years when one might be looking to replace the EV.  Come the 7-10 Yr mark and you will have to as battery capacity on the EV will be round the block if there is not some " Protection" built into the thing that will let it run at all. 10 years out of a modern Ice car is nothing.


      To get economic vlayue out of a vehicle that costs more to buy you have to drive it long distances . The thing with ev's is many people talk about them being good for short daily commoute.  that's the complete opposite of hat you want to get more value out of them. It is exactly the same as people spending 10K more to buy an economical Diesel when the car they are trading has done 50K km in the 5 years they have owned it.
      It' does NOT add up.

      This might for you in your circumstances but those circumstances are not general or indicative of the circumstances most people are in and the vehicles while maybe the same are also not representative of the majority in their respective classes either.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 03:18:51 am

      If one really wants to get into a pissing contest with the most economic vehicle to run, I win. Every damn time.

      My 2.6 ton full size Nissan patrol 4wd cost me $4000 to buy used. Km driven, about 15,000 Km on average.
       Annual fuel costs, ANY fuel/ electric costs would be well under $200 per year.

      Oh yeah, I change the oil and filters 4 times a year at about another $200. Just wanted to put that in before some  EV excuse making parishioner of the green cult brought up the " no oil changes " crap to make their EV's sound better.
      Oh, and it can tow My trailer, Boat, horse floats and anything else up to 3 ton.  Try that in all but 1 EV.  With a 2 ton boat and trailer, will still go a tad over 400Km before a refill is needed..... that takes about 4 Min for another 400Km.

      Now how much were those expensive EV's to run a year?
      OMG! That much for a pissy little match box.  NO thanks!
      I'll have something I can do an interstate trip in for about  $5-30 in depending on the time of year.



      Quote
      The quiet and smoothness were just added benefits I hadn't considered when I bought it,

      Piffle! Complete and utter piffle!

      I HAVE driven electrics and this " Smoothness" thing is a load of crap.
      Either people were driving some old tank like My Diesel 4WD which IS rough and noisy ( and 25Yo and I love it) or they are just drinking too much of the green EV flavored Cool aide.

      Get IN a modern IC and you can't feel OR hear the engine. Yes the EV -may- be quieter on the outside but there is no difference on the inside. The EV evangelists would have you believe IC's are like driving down the road in a tracked Dozer.  Modern IC engines are smooth, balanced and have had  tens of Millions spent on them to reduce NVH to levels only machines can measure.

      The FAR greatest NVH now does not come from the engine at all, it comes from the ROAD. And electrics are no more smoother than any other car when driving on the same road and anyone that says different is full of ship!
      The power train is NOT the cause of noise and vibration in a modern car and hasn't been for years. Most new cars you can only tell are running by looking at the tacho.  Put an EV and a Modern ICE on a dirt road or a sheet of glass and the only difference will be measurable by instruments.

      I have found that modern ICE"s are so quiet even on the outside they can be dangerous. Several times now I have been trundling along in carparks and other places where pedestrians have been wandering around and they don't hear you and walk out in front. One has to be on their toes and aware of this and the same happened in the EV. Never happens in the Truck and that is a good thing from a safety  and relaxation POV when I'm driving the thing.

      The EV bandwagon riders would have people believe that electrics levitate over potholes, seams and joints in the road, driveways and all other road imperfections so as to be like riding on a cloud.  Newsflash, THEY DON'T.
      Nor do the engines in a modern ICE car sound and shake like a screaming 471 jimmy hard mounted to the chassis rails in a beam axle mack truck.
      The suspension and damping design as well as sound proofing and NVH technology that goes into an Ice and an EV is the same and an ice engine is is smooth and balanced to the point of being imperceptible .
      If people are such delicate little snowflakes the Noise and vibration of a modern ICE vehicle is too much for their  sensitive disposition to handle, They should get the fk off the road and let their boyfriend do the driving or stay at home and play with their glitter collection. 

      Perhaps the EV flag wavers all came from 20 yo clapped out shit boxes and their PERCEPTIONS of EV's being so smooth are because the suspension and bushes on the old chitbox were shot and the thing had dropped at least one Cylinder. Now they have moved into a new car with the improvements in suspension design and condition, they THINK the EV is so much better and they haven't driven new IC cars?
      More likley by far, it's just the typical overhyping to push any green related agenda as usual.

      Don't know but as someone whom has driven both, I say it's not the car that determines noise and comfort, it's the  condition of the road you are driving on.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on February 24, 2019, 06:09:56 am

      I've posted it here on a couple of occasions, but here we go again; VW eGolf vs VW Golf (Canadian spec).

      eGolf: 17.4kWh/100km (this matches up pretty well with my real-world from the socket numbers https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21363))
      Golf: 8.5l/100km (automatic combined city/highway per NRC CAN reports https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002 (https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/transportation/21002))
      5) You picked a gas guzziling version of the car. -- I picked the equivalent.  Diesel versions are not available in North America

      6) You're not comparing apples to apples -- Don't know how much closer you can get comparing a gasoline vs the electric version of basically the same car.

      Yeah well sorry but  while this may be a one off instance, I would say it's not applicable to a lot of people around the world for a number of reasons.

      1. You picked a car which is unusually economical on power and rather thirsty for it's size in the petrol Version.
      If I look at the list of cars on the ling you provided, 25-30 Kwh / 100 Km would be far more indicative of the great majority of vehicles on that list.

      See, I predicted this, you just don't believe published facts, do you.
      Perhaps you have amazing mileage figures that you're pulling out of midair, but I'm using the government published combined city/highway numbers.
      As for my claim I cherry picked, let's have a look at the other two cars that have directly available gasoline v electric that are available here in Canada (2018 models) using my 0.0975kWh & 1.379/l for 2018 models we get...

      Ford Focus Electric 19.6kWh/100km vs Ford Focus
      Cost of Electricity: $1.91
      Cost of Gasoline:  $9.65 (best I3 1.0 M6 - 7.0l/100)
      Cost of Gasoline: $11.72 (worst I4 2.0 A6 - 8.5l/100)
      5-6x cheaper on electricity

      Kia Soul Electric 19.3kWh vs Kia Soul 8.5l/100km
      Cost of Electricity: $1.88
      Cost of Gasoline: $11.72 (1.6 I4)
      6.2x cheaper on electricity

      Apples to Apples

      Quote
      Secondly, the petrol version is thirsty. We have full size 6 Cyl family cars that get better mileage than that. Look at the jap offerings like camrys that are sold the world over and are a much bigger car and they leave that consumption behind.

      Different measuring system.  The European NEDC consumption numbers are typically 20-30% lower than the North American measuring system.   If you're so insistent of using the NEDC petrol (or diesel) consumption numbers, we'll just re-run the numbers using NEDC for everything.  The eGolf's NEDC number is 12.7kWh/100km.  Note NEDC is so far off the mark that they've discontinued it as of late last year.

      NEDC numbers:
      eGolf: $1.24/100km
      Golf: $6.90/100km (your 5.0l/100km number, which you've provided no reference for)
      5½-6x cheaper on electricity (using your/EU numbers)

      Apples to Apples.


      Quote
      3. What does an e golf and a gas golf cost where you are? From what I can see, the petrol golf is $21 K and the E golf is 31K.
      based on your numbers, that means the first 7400L of fuel are relatively free in the petrol version over the savings over the electric. Multiply that by the said 8.5L 100 and that translates to 63,000 KM paid for.

      Of course then you have to take into account interest paid or lost on the $10K difference and what I would guarantee will be a Huge hit on resale value of the electric once all these newer, cheaper electrics come out over the next 4-5 Years when one might be looking to replace the EV.  Come the 7-10 Yr mark and you will have to as battery capacity on the EV will be round the block if there is not some " Protection" built into the thing that will let it run at all. 10 years out of a modern Ice car is nothing.
      eGolf is about C$36k, Petrol version similarly equipped about $25k
      You get $5k from the government for buying electric which makes the difference about $6k, which as you've already pointed out, means that I've have paid the difference off quite quickly (4-5 yrs)

      You also don't take into account that a 100k/10yr old petrol engine isn't as efficient as a new one, but then you were never about comparing the same things, were you.

      Oh and that interest (@3%) on the 6000 difference?  That's more than paid for by two oil changes (which I'm skipping as an electric owner)




      Q: When will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      A: They already have
      (much to the annoyance of some people)

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 07:14:02 am
      See, I predicted this, you just don't believe published facts, do you.


      NO, try reading again, slowly and spell the words out carefully so you understand and Comprehend what they mean.

      No one said they didn't believe the numbers, they just said they wouldn't apply to very many people around the world. 
      See the difference between what was said and what you tried to spin doctor it to then argue with yourself about?

      Q: When will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

      Whenever the Unicorn and fairy dust believers imagine they have.  :-DD
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 24, 2019, 10:01:00 am
      Get IN a modern IC and you can't feel OR hear the engine. Yes the EV -may- be quieter on the outside but there is no difference on the inside. The EV evangelists would have you believe IC's are like driving down the road in a tracked Dozer.  Modern IC engines are smooth, balanced and have had  tens of Millions spent on them to reduce NVH to levels only machines can measure.

      The FAR greatest NVH now does not come from the engine at all, it comes from the ROAD. And electrics are no more smoother than any other car when driving on the same road and anyone that says different is full of ship!
      I have to agree with this. Over a decade ago I drove a Renault Megane diesel a few times and I couldn't hear the engine at all. I had to look at the RPM gauge to see if the engine was running. If you want a quiet car you can also spend the extra money on a more luxureous and thus quieter one.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: hammy on February 24, 2019, 10:08:20 am
      Electric cars are already cheaper to own and run than petrol or diesel alternatives in five European countries analysed in new research.
      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 10:35:47 am
      If you want a quiet car you can also spend the extra money on a more luxureous and thus quieter one.

      Exactly.

      Other car I occasionally Pilot when I have to is a '17 Mercedes GLA 250.
      Would challenge anyone to get in that and the EV of their choice blindfolded, go for a drive down the same roads and then tell me which one they were in.
      I'd also like to see the readouts of a NVH meter in both cars recording the same journey and compare results.  I'll bet my backside the merc would give a better, quieter and more comfortable ride, especially over poorer roads , than any EV of the same value which will all be entry level things like leafs and the like.

      The engineering and ride quality in something all the money went into batteries in is not ( and does not)  give the same ride quality as something that did have the money focused in the areas as ride comfort. 
      The merc sticks to the road like shit to a blanket, accelerates like no tomorrow and again would leave any comparable priced EV behind and has brakes and  features in the safety and comfort department a glorified mobility scooter couldn't come near. I'd like to see any EV of comparable value keep up with me in the merc round a tight set of corners, Pull up faster or over take as quickly.  Not even sure they will be a match in 5 years time because even then, at a similar price the majority of the $$ will be going into the batteries and everything else will be a compromise to fit into the price point they want to sell the things at.

      And this is a lower end merc. I can only imagine what a mid let alone high end one does or any other comparable models. I think the Merc is overly complicated for a vehicle but it's not my car and I only  drive it on occasion.  Wife loves it though.

      I can only imagine the complication and pain in the arse something like a big brother supervised Tesla would be like Navigating through the controls and and features of that thing.
      The Merc  can change the colour of the Interior lighting. I thought that was an over the top useless feature.
      The Tesla can pulse the lights and flap the doors to the beat of the music it is playing.  :o

      YA!

      :palm: :palm: :palm:

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 24, 2019, 10:37:32 am
      Electric cars are already cheaper to own and run than petrol or diesel alternatives in five European countries analysed in new research.
      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study)
      But the article doesn't show the actual numbers and 4 years is a very short period to own a car. This graph is based on cherry picked numbers. The fact that a diesel car is shown as most expensive is a dead giveaway. Diesel cars are generally bought by people who drive long distances and get a lower TCO due to cheaper fuel. A car with a diesel engine usually costs more to buy and the owner must pay more for road taxes. If you only drive short distances then a diesel car will be more expensive to own versus gas/petrol.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 10:54:11 am
      Electric cars are already cheaper to own and run than petrol or diesel alternatives in five European countries analysed in new research.

      Well, guess we know what all the tight arse scrooges in those countries will be driving now.   ::)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 24, 2019, 12:46:55 pm
      Electric cars are already cheaper to own and run than petrol or diesel alternatives in five European countries analysed in new research.
      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study)
      Their numbers say that the most expensive option to own in all five countries is the diesel version of the car. I'd really like to see how they derive numbers that put diesel costs above petrol. I assume they are using a usage model that consists entirely of short journeys, with a low total annual mileage. The reality is that the relative costs of cars with different drive trains varies considerably with usage patterns, so showing just one set of costs is not analysis. Its pushing an agenda.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 24, 2019, 03:38:18 pm
      BTW has anyone noticed Toyota has been awfully quiet about electric cars? After some Googling it seems Toyota wants better batteries before they are going to produce any serious amount of electrics cars and China will be their primary market for electric cars. Toyota seems to be fully focussed on hybrid and hydrogen for the rest of the world.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 24, 2019, 04:32:43 pm
      BTW has anyone noticed Toyota has been awfully quiet about electric cars? After some Googling it seems Toyota wants better batteries before they are going to produce any serious amount of electrics cars and China will be their primary market for electric cars. Toyota seems to be fully focussed on hybrid and hydrogen for the rest of the world.
      You need to follow the news more. In the last year or so there were big, but inaccurate, news reports about solid state batteries coming from Toyota real soon now. There were less reported corrections that Toyota is talking about 10 years to have these batteries in volume production, and their announcement was only about interesting research results. There were announcements about Toyota taking EVs with current generation batteries much more seriously for near term EV releases, especially since the China market is demanding EVs. The other Japanese car makers are also getting serious about EVs for the same China market requirements. Toyota also made some announcements backing off from hydrogen powered cars being viable as a mass market product.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on February 24, 2019, 05:19:39 pm
      If you want a quiet car you can also spend the extra money on a more luxureous and thus quieter one.

      Exactly.

      Other car I occasionally Pilot when I have to is a '17 Mercedes GLA 250.
      Would challenge anyone to get in that and the EV of their choice blindfolded, go for a drive down the same roads and then tell me which one they were in.
      I'd also like to see the readouts of a NVH meter in both cars recording the same journey and compare results.  I'll bet my backside the merc would give a better, quieter and more comfortable ride, especially over poorer roads , than any EV of the same value which will all be entry level things like leafs and the like.

      Funny you should say that.  I traded in my Merc for my eGolf.  No contest on how much smoother the eGolf is.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 24, 2019, 06:42:35 pm
      VW Golfs are known for their stiff ride (I've driven a few models) so I can't imagine how the ride can be better compared to a Mercedes (unless you had a sporty or very cheap Mercedes with a stiff suspension).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 24, 2019, 06:51:40 pm
      Interesting videos on the Tesloop video channel.
      They run Teslas's from California to Las Vegas non stop, up to 17 000 miles a month.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hGVljyQQJY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hGVljyQQJY)

      It is short, but it shows that a bit of battery management goes a long way, that there are some rare dud batteries, etc.
      Tesloop has 8 of the 10 highest mileage Teslas, supercharge up to 4 times a day and run them as fast as possible... So they can be considered the unofficial accelerated ageing testing program of Tesla.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 24, 2019, 06:54:38 pm
      Interesting videos on the Tesloop video channel.
      They run Teslas's from California to Las Vegas non stop, up to 17 000 miles a month.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hGVljyQQJY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hGVljyQQJY)

      It is short, but it shows that a bit of battery management goes a long way, that there are some rare dud batteries, etc.
      Tesloop has 8 of the 10 highest mileage Teslas, supercharge up to 4 times a day and run them as fast as possible... So they can be considered the unofficial accelerated ageing testing program of Tesla.
      Those guys seem to have gone through a large number of replacement motors, due to bearing failure.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GopherT on February 24, 2019, 07:06:49 pm
      VW Golfs are known for their stiff ride (I've driven a few models) so I can't imagine how the ride can be better compared to a Mercedes (unless you had a sporty or very cheap Mercedes with a stiff suspension).

      Noise from the engine at highway speeds is quite high in the cabin of IC vehicles.  Also, wind turbulence below the hood adds additional noise on the other side of the firewall. No grille for cooling air on most EVs. 

      Manufacturers of electric cars know that tire noise is the loudest contributor to NVH in their vehicles. Therefore tires are carefully selected and certain compromises are made in performance, durability and price to meet noise targets that OEMs are setting for EVs. For example, the Tesla's were shipping with Goodyear Eagle Touring, 245/45R19, all-season Grand Touring category, with sound reduction foam.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 24, 2019, 07:20:26 pm
      Interesting videos on the Tesloop video channel.
      They run Teslas's from California to Las Vegas non stop, up to 17 000 miles a month.

      It is short, but it shows that a bit of battery management goes a long way, that there are some rare dud batteries, etc.
      Tesloop has 8 of the 10 highest mileage Teslas, supercharge up to 4 times a day and run them as fast as possible... So they can be considered the unofficial accelerated ageing testing program of Tesla.
      Those guys seem to have gone through a large number of replacement motors, due to bearing failure.
      Wasn't that a recall item on early model S's?
      Here is an «easy» thread about the issue. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/99ojac/rich_rebuilds_first_generation_tesla_motor/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/99ojac/rich_rebuilds_first_generation_tesla_motor/)
      And a white paper for deeper info (not specific to Tesla, but I had the same issue with a transformer on board, so a good read): https://www.est-aegis.com/TechPaper.pdf (https://www.est-aegis.com/TechPaper.pdf)

      Here is a Tesloop 350 000 miles Model X with 13% battery degradation. It had 18 000$ of repairs after 215 000 miles (so no electric magic here).
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nfgb8TPcHk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nfgb8TPcHk)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 24, 2019, 07:26:05 pm
      VW Golfs are known for their stiff ride (I've driven a few models) so I can't imagine how the ride can be better compared to a Mercedes (unless you had a sporty or very cheap Mercedes with a stiff suspension).
      Noise from the engine at highway speeds is quite high in the cabin of IC vehicles.  Also, wind turbulence below the hood adds additional noise on the other side of the firewall. No grille for cooling air on most EVs. 
      Sorry but you can't make such brush statements. It depends entirely on the ICE vehicle. The more luxureous ones have extra dampening between the drive train mounts / axles mounts and a double wall between the engine compartment and the interiour of the car. The problem I see is that most people who seem to think an EV is quieter compared to an ICE car have never driven a luxureous ICE car.

      Tyre noise shouldn't be underestimated. I have had a car with a loud diesel engine on which the tyre noise (Michelin tyres BTW) suppressed the engine noise at speeds over 70km/h. When I got more quieter tyres I could hear the engine again. But then again this is a bout a car from the early 90's.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 24, 2019, 07:29:52 pm
      Interesting videos on the Tesloop video channel.
      They run Teslas's from California to Las Vegas non stop, up to 17 000 miles a month.

      It is short, but it shows that a bit of battery management goes a long way, that there are some rare dud batteries, etc.
      Tesloop has 8 of the 10 highest mileage Teslas, supercharge up to 4 times a day and run them as fast as possible... So they can be considered the unofficial accelerated ageing testing program of Tesla.
      Those guys seem to have gone through a large number of replacement motors, due to bearing failure.
      Wasn't that a recall item on early model S's?
      There was a recall on early model S cars, where the motors failed at 40k miles or so, due to eddy currents in the bearings. If you look through the videos from Tesloop it seems they continue to get failures with the revised motors.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 24, 2019, 07:36:32 pm
      Interesting videos on the Tesloop video channel.
      They run Teslas's from California to Las Vegas non stop, up to 17 000 miles a month.

      It is short, but it shows that a bit of battery management goes a long way, that there are some rare dud batteries, etc.
      Tesloop has 8 of the 10 highest mileage Teslas, supercharge up to 4 times a day and run them as fast as possible... So they can be considered the unofficial accelerated ageing testing program of Tesla.
      Those guys seem to have gone through a large number of replacement motors, due to bearing failure.
      Wasn't that a recall item on early model S's?
      There was a recall on early model S cars, where the motors failed at 40k miles or so, due to eddy currents in the bearings. If you look through the videos from Tesloop it seems they continue to get failures with the revised motors.
      Thanks, will do. I want to see their failure mode.

      Edit: can you point me to that video, I've been going through their vids for 30min and have found nothing...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 08:28:14 pm

      Funny you should say that.  I traded in my Merc for my eGolf.  No contest on how much smoother the eGolf is.

      Really?
      Did the E golf come with new, smoother roads for you to drive on too?   ::)

      Funny you purposefully omitted telling us which Model and year Merc you traded.
      If it was a w123, i'd believe you but anything  5 or less years old.... lets just say i'd put that down to typical green agenda pushing.

      Unless you are driving on new roads, the smoothness thing is illogical and does not make any sense from a Physics POV unless you one is again spin doctoring the meaning or application of the term smoothness.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 09:19:49 pm

      Noise from the engine at highway speeds is quite high in the cabin of IC vehicles.

      Again, I don't know what you are driving or what Vintage but even cars going back 10 years I have driven have not been able to hear the engine at highway speeds. Only way you can tell the engine is running is the things are moving forward and the tacho sitting at 2500 RPM tells you so.
      I can't even hear the engine in my 15 Yo ute at 110 nor can I feel it's running due to the vibrations from the road at that speed.


       
      Quote
      Also, wind turbulence below the hood adds additional noise on the other side of the firewall.
      That may be true but I can't hear what is 6 ft in front of me in any relatively modern car through the sound deadening.  Where my father lives, if the wind is blowing right you can hear the cars on the distant highway. You never hear engines or wind noise, it's always the sound of the tyres on the road.  If it's raining, you can always hear the sound of the tyres on the wet road much louder.

       
      Quote
      No grille for cooling air on most EVs. 

      Have you seen how small  the grilles are on modern cars and how the main ducting is down low close to the road?
      When they build cars, any cars, they put them in wind tunnels and test for this kind of thing. You don't really believe they are going to let cars into production with howling grilles do you?

      Ev's in fact have a look of cooling going on for batteries and other things. They may not have a grille at the front but they defiantly have Heat exchangers and fans for cooling.

      It's like IC's are made out that these things are not a consideration and they are all made rough as guts where suddenly when the manufacturers build an EV, they suddenly became concerned about NVH.  They put what they had learned about NVH into electrics, they didn't just discover it and how to suppress it over night!

      Quote
      Manufacturers of electric cars know that tire noise is the loudest contributor to NVH in their vehicles. Therefore tires are carefully selected and certain compromises are made in performance, durability and price to meet noise targets that OEMs are setting for EVs. For example, the Tesla's were shipping with Goodyear Eagle Touring, 245/45R19, all-season Grand Touring category, with sound reduction foam.

      So one could extrapolate from this that if the same Tyres were used, an IC would get quieter or an EV would get louder because it's  more to do with the tyres than the Vehicle?  THIS sounds logical.

      Tyres make such a huge difference to a vehicle. I have 2 sets for my ute, a set of low profile, wide as can fit low profile's with soft rubber and a set of conventional width/ Height for load carrying and towing.  The difference in the way the car handles and performs with nothing else changed bar the tyres is astonishing.  I have noticed the skinny( er) tyers are more noisy which was unexpected  over the low profiles but it is what it is.
      The wide tyres are also much better in the wet which is not the way it is supposed to be but again is the reality.
      Be understandable if the regular tyres were Cheap rubbish but they were the most expensive and best rated for that size.

      I remember the Tyres my wifes new ford came with many years ago, Goodyears.  In my younger days I had put retreads on cars and they were better than these things! Drove the car a few times in the wet and the goodyears were shocking and not so flash in the dry either.  After she spun it a couple of times carefully going round roundabout fully aware of how bad the things were, we took it to a tyre shop and had them replaced with under 10K km on the car.  I said to the guy, bet you don't get many people changing tyres this new.  He said normally not unless people want mags and Bigger tyres but when it comes to these things, we get them all the time! I was surprised and asked why, he looked at me and said the same reason you want to get rid of them, they are complete shit that should never be put on any car! He told me he had bought his wife a new car which had these thing on it and she complained and refused to drive it after a month when she figured out it wasn't the car but the tyres it was sitting on.

      I heard many accounts of these same tires later on that were fitted to many new cars and all the stories were the same of how they scared the shit out of people in the wet and dry. Put Yokohama's on to replace these round bits of garbage and it was a different car and could be driven the same in the wet or dry with no concerns at all. I don't say all Goodyears are bad but these things were just dangerous.

      I have never heard of foam Filled Tyres. Is this a type of tyre or something that can be pumped into any tyre?

      Perhaps what the EV crowd are seeing is not the cars are more smooth and quiet then the IC's at all, They just got a set of better tyres with THE ev than what they had put on the IC?

      Can't say I noticed ANY difference in the electric I drove with noise and Vibration either in the city or the country highways I drove it on but I'd guarantee it had the tyres replaced and highly likely if they came with anything special from the factory, they weren't even available to be replaced with the same.... Or would have been paid for by the owner either.

      Brings up another aspect of EV ownership though... How much are these special tires over decent conventional rubber?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 09:57:53 pm

      BWAHAHAHA!!

      Oh dear, the EV evangelists have been shown up again for their endless agenda pushing with the " Smooth and quiet" bullshit.

      While looking for more info on the Foam filled tyres, I came across something about sound proffing a Tesla. Went to a tesla fan bio site and with  minimal looking I found a whole heap of posts about people complaining about the noise in their tesla's and pulling the interiors out to sound proof them!   :-DD

      Couldn't be more ironic and show up the " Quiet" BS any more convincingly.

      Heres just one thread but there are loads more if one does a serch of that site.

      https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/soundproofing-the-p85.23471/#post-485746

      If EV's are so bloody quiet, why are all these guys going to so much trouble to put sound proofing in the most hero worshipped EV of all time?   :wtf:

      Sorry EV fan bois but your argument of EV's being so much quieter just got shot down in flames by your very own disciples of the religion.
      There are clear and repeated statements of people complaining about the noise in the vehicles, particularly road noise so that part of the argument for EV's becomes a truly laughable load of complete and utter crap.   :palm:

      I have NEVER heard of anyone ripping out the interior of a $100K IC car to put in more sound deadening! The fact there is a clear interest in doing it to an EV after all the hype and crap I have read about them being quiet as such a huge advantage over IC's shows what bunk it was as I knew soon as I drove one and have said since. 

      Too funny, just too funny. You couldn't make that up or shoot the " Quieter" load of bollocks down any better if you tried.

      Just goes to show how over hyped and Full of BS the EV evangelists really are. Wouldn't trust a damn thing they or the greenwashed ever said without first hand proof.  :bullshit:

      Spose next thing the EV koolaide drinkers will be trying to tell us is they are cheaper to run!
      Oh, wait,  hmm, never mind.  |O
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 24, 2019, 10:18:57 pm
      Yeah. Sound proofing is something you typically find on the higher end cars. On a BMW I've worked on there was (IIRC) at least 5cm of sound proofing materials under the floor mats. That gave me the idea to sound proof my own car (fun project taking all of the interior out including the door lining and adding thick sound proofing rubber wherever I could).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 10:44:40 pm

      Yes, I have put it in my own vehicles many years ago as well.

      The idea of putting it into a car worth $100K and a hell of a lot more here that the fan bois tell you is so much quieter than an IC, is laughable beyond imagination.  I'd not expect to want to put it in ANY new vehicle and the new $25K Kia I went for a trip in the other week certainly didn't have the thought of extra sound proofing ever enter my mind.

      By the same token, the desire to add soundproofing is entirely UNsurprising and probably predictable given the endless BS that comes out of the EV and particularly, the Tesla fanbois  whom seriously must be THE most Gullible and brainwashed group of consumers on the whole damn planet.

      Seriously, You couldn't give me a Tesla unless I was allowed to drive it for a day then sell it and use the money to buy something else.... and it wouldn't be electric, that I can say for certain!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on February 24, 2019, 11:07:48 pm
      Engine noise is audible on many ICE cars.  In fact a lot of effort is spent to get that noise right for the market they are attacking.  I agree that engine noise is not a big deal on many cars and on some it may be truly inaudible.  On my particular older SUVs the engine noise does not stand out when cruising at constant highway speed, but is very noticeable when accelerating to pass or climbing hills.  With the tires I drive tire noise is definitely there, but about the same as other noise components (wind and engine).  I pass and am passed by some for whom tire noise is clearly many dB above other sounds, even the noise of the diesel engine which on large vehicles here in the US is quite loud.

      All of this is very subjective and usually well filtered by the brain in both ICE and EV cases.  I am sure owners are not fibbing when they report that their vehicles are relatively quiet.  A more objective metric is how much the radio has to be turned up to listen while on the road.  On my ancient (mid 70s) pickup which never had very good sound control and has had all mostly fail over the years the radio must be operated at ear damage levels.  With more modern cars little additional volume is required.  Of course some vehicles cheat by controlling volume from the speedometer.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 24, 2019, 11:53:25 pm

      I rarely drive with the radio/ sound system playing.
      I prefer to just think and relax.

      Auto volume control is common in cars now. maybe smart designers could incorporate noise cancelling technology like headphones? The sound system  plays " Anti Noise" sounds that compensate which is occurring?

      Clearly it's something that would be of use to Tesla Drivers save them having to pull their vehicles apart to install conventional sound deadening.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 25, 2019, 12:34:08 am
      Electric cars are already cheaper to own and run than petrol or diesel alternatives in five European countries analysed in new research.
      https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study)

      Did you notice the mention of subsidies for electric cars?
      I wonder if the subsidies were eliminated and the comparison was made just an operating the vehicles if the outcome would be the same? 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 25, 2019, 01:25:46 am


      Did you notice the mention of subsidies for electric cars?
      I wonder if the subsidies were eliminated and the comparison was made just an operating the vehicles if the outcome would be the same?

      Yeah, I noticed it and though that won't last too long.  When everyone else isn't paying for these flavour of the month antidotes for a midlife Crisis and power has gone up due to increasing demand, then lets see how cheap they are.

       The other thing will be the free charging. If these EV's get past the novelty stage and achieve any worthwhile mass, Like everything else people will start cashing in on it. So many places now won't even let you park for free and that costs nothing. They won't give you a bottle of water for nothing they could buy for .50C if they bought in bulk so why are they going to give you $10 worth of power?

      The EV crowd don't really think places are going to add thousands to their power bills giving away '000's of Kw of electricity forever do they when they can make a buck out of it?
      It's OK now as a PR exercise to bring in a few cars a day but if there are loads of them, the costs will soon add up and the recharging will be paid for as so many stations already are.

      Even tesla has already pulled back on the free charging gimmick.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 25, 2019, 01:44:01 am
      In the US/California we are getting $10,000 USD in cash rebates and tax credits for having an electric car.  Having an EV also allows us to be on a EV rate plan with our power company.  This allows us to buy electricity at a cheaper rate not only for our car but our entire house.  If we did not have an EV car our electric bill would be $35 to $75 more per month.

      Posters were mentioning loud tire noise.  But what everyone failed to mention is tire noise is wasted energy resulting in less miles per gallon or kHr.  The louder the tire noise the more energy is wasted.



       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 25, 2019, 02:52:33 am

        This allows us to buy electricity at a cheaper rate not only for our car but our entire house.  If we did not have an EV car our electric bill would be $35 to $75 more per month.

      Far out!
      California really is greenwashed fairy LA LA land.  I can see why my mate is desperate to get out the place!
      Not only do people have to subsidize someone elses car, they have to subsidize their living expenses as well!

      What sort of fked up thinking is that??

      Just goes to show the inconsistency of the green mentality that dosen't know what they want.  I was just reading a discussion where the local green zealots were whining that people with solar panels should pay more for the power they do use or a monthly additional charge because it's not fair to the people that don't have them to have to pay more for the upkeep of the poles and wires.

      Imagine if they had to pay more towards other people power bills when they were already paying towards the cars they Drove.
      There would be a riot and for once, Rightfully so. 

      I thought our Pollies and policy makers had some stupid ideas but that takes the cake!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 25, 2019, 05:41:35 am
      Another Tesla crashes into a tree and catches fire.  This time the driver was a Tesla employee and lived.  Remember the Apple employee that drove into a tree with autopilot on was killed.  This guy walked away.  The fire department had to spray water on the batteries for 3 hrs to keep them cool.

      https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2019/02/18/tesla-model-x-crashes-burns-fremont/
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 25, 2019, 05:48:07 am

        This allows us to buy electricity at a cheaper rate not only for our car but our entire house.  If we did not have an EV car our electric bill would be $35 to $75 more per month.

      Far out!
      California really is greenwashed fairy LA LA land.  I can see why my mate is desperate to get out the place!
      Not only do people have to subsidize someone elses car, they have to subsidize their living expenses as well!

      What sort of fked up thinking is that??

      Just goes to show the inconsistency of the green mentality that dosen't know what they want.  I was just reading a discussion where the local green zealots were whining that people with solar panels should pay more for the power they do use or a monthly additional charge because it's not fair to the people that don't have them to have to pay more for the upkeep of the poles and wires.

      Imagine if they had to pay more towards other people power bills when they were already paying towards the cars they Drove.
      There would be a riot and for once, Rightfully so. 

      I thought our Pollies and policy makers had some stupid ideas but that takes the cake!

      Well wait a minute, it even gets better.  If you install solar panel on your roof our government gives us a 30% tax credit.  Get why Tesla/Solar City and all of the other companies want to sell solar in California?  Tesla solar gave me a quote of $35,000 for solar on my home.  And my fellow tax payers get the privilege of paying the $10,500 of that bill. 

      Did I buy?  Of course not.  That $35,000 would cost me around $9,000 if I purchased the panels and hired a contractor to install.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on February 25, 2019, 07:57:02 am
      Most noise from ICEs these days are from the tires icw the road quality.
      How I know? I live in the south of the Netherlands and I occasionally travel to the south into Belgium.
      The roads there date from WW2, concrete platters with a tiny amount of asphalt on it.

      If I drive 130km/h (80 mph) in the Netherlands I can listen to the radio at volume setting 12 without issue.
      When I cross the border I have to slow down to 120km/h (75mph) I have to put the radio to setting 22 and still have issues listening.
      Now I did not compare both settings with a dB meter but my guess is that it is easy twice the volume.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 25, 2019, 04:33:17 pm
      Most noise from ICEs these days are from the tires icw the road quality.
      How I know? I live in the south of the Netherlands and I occasionally travel to the south into Belgium.
      The roads there date from WW2, concrete platters with a tiny amount of asphalt on it.

      If I drive 130km/h (80 mph) in the Netherlands I can listen to the radio at volume setting 12 without issue.
      When I cross the border I have to slow down to 120km/h (75mph) I have to put the radio to setting 22 and still have issues listening.
      Now I did not compare both settings with a dB meter but my guess is that it is easy twice the volume.

      It would be interesting to see how much your mileage drops when you are on the Belgium roads due to louder tire noise.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 25, 2019, 04:42:42 pm
      It is more complicated than that. First you need to figure out what causes more losses: friction or noise and whether a low friction tyre makes more or less noise.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on February 25, 2019, 04:51:03 pm
      It would be interesting to see how much your mileage drops when you are on the Belgium roads due to louder tire noise.
      Probably evens out due to the speed drop.
      Anyway the petrol is 25 cents cheaper per liter in Belgium almost pays off the trip.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 25, 2019, 05:43:10 pm
      It is more complicated than that. First you need to figure out what causes more losses: friction or noise and whether a low friction tyre makes more or less noise.

      What you are saying makes no sense.  The friction is what is causing the the road noise.  Use some critical thinking skills.  If there weren’t any friction there would be no road noise but then again the car would not move either.  Road noise like the heat an ICE engine or EV motor generates is wasted energy.  If the road noise from the tires and road is louder it means more energy is being wasted to make the noise.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on February 25, 2019, 09:30:21 pm
      It is more complicated than that. First you need to figure out what causes more losses: friction or noise and whether a low friction tyre makes more or less noise.
      What you are saying makes no sense.  The friction is what is causing the the road noise.  Use some critical thinking skills.  If there weren’t any friction there would be no road noise but then again the car would not move either.  Road noise like the heat an ICE engine or EV motor generates is wasted energy.  If the road noise from the tires and road is louder it means more energy is being wasted to make the noise.
      Sorry but your underbelly doesn't do critical thinking very well. My brain however works perfectly fine when it comes to critical thinking and knows that you can't make such bold statements without looking up the numbers first. For example compare the Michelin Energy saver 175/65 R15 84 H and 175/65 R15 88 H. Same size, same noise level but a different fuel consumption.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on February 25, 2019, 09:36:26 pm
      It is more complicated than that. First you need to figure out what causes more losses: friction or noise and whether a low friction tyre makes more or less noise.

      What you are saying makes no sense.  The friction is what is causing the the road noise.  Use some critical thinking skills.  If there weren’t any friction there would be no road noise but then again the car would not move either.  Road noise like the heat an ICE engine or EV motor generates is wasted energy.  If the road noise from the tires and road is louder it means more energy is being wasted to make the noise.
      Vehicle efficiency has almost nothing to do with noise. People get confused by the hundred of watts coming out of a hi-fi amp, ignoring that speakers are extremely inefficient,. A 100W audio amp probably only results in a watt or two of acoustic output from the speaker. It only takes a few watts of acoustic output from a car to make it quite loud, but those few watts are a drop in the ocean of the car's energy consumption. Tyres come with both acoustic and efficiency ratings these days, and the ones I've looked at do not have a close correlation between quietness and efficiency.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: gildasd on February 26, 2019, 07:11:25 pm
      It is more complicated than that. First you need to figure out what causes more losses: friction or noise and whether a low friction tyre makes more or less noise.

      What you are saying makes no sense.  The friction is what is causing the the road noise.  Use some critical thinking skills.  If there weren’t any friction there would be no road noise but then again the car would not move either.  Road noise like the heat an ICE engine or EV motor generates is wasted energy.  If the road noise from the tires and road is louder it means more energy is being wasted to make the noise.
      Softer tyres make less noise and have more rolling resistance than harder and noisier ones.
      On my Citroën C4, with my usage and driving style, soft and quiet winter tyres use about 0.25 to 0.5 L diesel more per 100km than hard summer ones.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 26, 2019, 07:20:48 pm


      What you are saying makes no sense.  The friction is what is causing the the road noise.  Use some critical thinking skills.  If there weren’t any friction there would be no road noise but then again the car would not move either.  Road noise like the heat an ICE engine or EV motor generates is wasted energy.  If the road noise from the tires and road is louder it means more energy is being wasted to make the noise.
      Softer tyres make less noise and have more rolling resistance than harder and noisier ones.
      On my Citroën C4, with my usage and driving style, soft and quiet winter tyres use about 0.25 to 0.5 L diesel more per 100km than hard summer ones.
      [/quote]

      Interesting thank for sharing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 26, 2019, 11:42:02 pm

      I think we have debunked the quieter and smoother EV fantasy Bullshit at least.

      I saw an interesting article as to the cost of charging Tesla's going up here and apparently in the states.

      https://www.motoring.com.au/tesla-increases-australian-charging-prices-by-one-third-116594/ (https://www.motoring.com.au/tesla-increases-australian-charging-prices-by-one-third-116594/)

      I found this excerpt particularly interesting and telling:

      In a leaked email to Tesla employees, founder Elon Musk explained the car-maker was struggling to develop its pure-electric cars as cheaply as a conventional car – and that resulted in a vehicle “too expensive for most people”.

      Well hardly any news flash there BUT, The Model 3 was supposed to be exactly that, The firt EV to be able to come near regular car pricing. That has proven  to be more pure and utter Tesla/ Musk lies.

      To help lower overheads and reduce the cost of its new core car, the Model 3, Musk said 3000 of its workers must go.


      Well I'm not an economist but reducing overheads does not in fact allow the cost price of a vehicle to become cheaper. Even if it did, the place would have to be stupidly excessive in it's overheads to have any effect on the price of the vehicles in the volume they are producing and it would not have any bearing what so ever on the cost of components.

      To me this sounds more like a Muskesq admission they haven't got a hope in hell of making the $30KI model 3 and if they do it will be back to loosing money which he has well painted himself into a corner on and can't afford to do..... but I predict they WILL go back to negative numbers anyway.

      It might explain the whole Model 3 Bullshit of being a $30K car as it's been so heavily promoted.  In fact if I remember correctly, There has never been one sold yet under $47K out the door and the $30K price tag is again just pure Musk/ Tesla lies. There hasn't even been a $30K model on the price list for over 6 Months now showing even that was a fantasy Tesla couldn't spin doctor. 

      If they are laying off the workforce, again, who the hell is going to build the things?  They are already well known amoungst the realists and owners for having totally crap fit and finish among other problems and I can't see where having less workers is going to make for a better product given they  are already struggling to make production targets anyway.  Although that might be soon slowing as stockpiles of the things keep mounting up.

      Musk is also in trouble again with the SEC over more fraudulent Tweets and breaching his previous settlement conditions over the $420  private share Lie.

      Said it before and I'll say it again, Tesla will be gone in 5 ( now 4) years tops.  Ihave also asked for the screaming fanbois who go into melt down over that statement to explain to me why in FINANCIAL reasons why that won't ( in their cult following opinion) why that won't happen and what are the FINANCIAL reasons tesla will still be around.

      So far the only financial based answer I have got about 6 Months ago was " every new company has to loose money".
      Yeah, right.  You mean a 10 Yo company.....  :palm:

      Can't wait to see how they finish up this year. if it's a full year of profits, spin doctored or otherwise, I'll be amazed but even if there is, with 3 years to go and an avalanche of new EV's to come, it will be a miracle if they are still around at the end of my prediction.
      Be a bigger miracle if Musk is still with the company and not sacked, barred from holding a board position on any company or not locked up.
      Think If I were him I'd also be looking at having some bodyguards if he doesn't already.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on February 27, 2019, 12:32:25 am

      Looking at the article I linked to above, the true fallacy of EV's being cheaper to run comes out:

      From this week, the pioneering electric car-maker from California will increase the average price of charging at any of its Australian and New Zealand supercharger stations from $0.35 per kWh to $0.42 per kWh, or 20 per cent.

      In reality, the price hikes mean it will cost an additional $5.25 to fully replenish a Tesla Model S with a 75kWh battery (claimed 490km range), or $31.50.

      Now here is where the truth comes out and the fantasy ends by their own admission.

      Tesla currently offers some owners 400kWh of annual credits, depending on when their cars were purchased. That equates to roughly 1600km worth of range.

      So we have gone from 75 Kwh of power equaling 490 KM of range to 100 Kwh  giving 400 KM of range. That a big difference and a far more real world number going by what is reported on the tesla Fan boi sites.  For those that believe or more over, want to believe the tesla hyped figures over real world numbers posted by users, Go argue with the people driving them that their numbers are wrong because they don't match Teslas.
      In this case though, the lower numbers ARE teslas.

      Now with super charging 100KW that will take you 400Kw when you are away from home will cost you $42.

      Average fuel price here atm is $1.30L and it's been well below that for the last month or so but well use current price to compare current supercharging price.
      For $42 you could buy 32L of fuel.  For that to take you 400 Km you would have to be getting..... 8 L per 100Km.

      So what other economy cars could you get to match the same running costs?

      Well with a bit of careful driving, you could run one of these for the same cost:

      (https://res.cloudinary.com/carsguide/image/upload/f_auto,fl_lossy,q_auto,t_cg_hero_large/v1/editorial/2018-ford-ranger-raptor-marcus-craft-%283%29.jpg)


      The Raptor has a claimed 8.2L/100km fuel-consumption figure (combined cycle). It has an 80-litre fuel tank.   :-DD

      Of course if that wasn't your style, Then there is a plethora of other vehicles available as well like:

      Subaru Forrester, 7.4 L/100
      Audi A3,    4.9
      Toyota Prado,   8.0
      Hyuandi Elantra  7.0
      Ford Focus  6.4
      Toyota camry  7.8
      Holden Commodore  7.6

      And so the Looong list of Ic vehicles goes on and as can be seen, the cherry picking I have done is for the not so economical and larger vehicles rather than the plentiful range available that are in the 4  L / 100 range.

      But Wait!
      I can hear the greenwashed all screaming " But charging at home is only .30C kwh.
      So the numbers on that would mean you have to get about 6 L / 100 to match the at home charging cost.
      Not a problem. PLENTY of cars can do that so again, the EV's are still NOT cheaper than IC's in a lot of cases.

      There is a great irony to me though in worrying about the economy of a $130K+ car.  If you can afford the car and the insurance, are you really such a miser you'd give a flying wether the thing cost $2 or 25 to run the thing 100km?  I sure wouldn't be then again, I'm not desperate to prove how wonderful ev's are or high on the green koolaide like so many are these days because they are so desperate for a cause to believe in and champion.

      Yes, EVs -MAY- be cheaper to run is SOME places but certainly not all and the blanket statement they are is just another crock of greenwasing and exaggeration designed as usual to push the cause of the green cult with as little attention to truth and fact as can be gotten away with... Or not.


      Cue fanbois and green evangilists......  ::)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on February 27, 2019, 11:20:31 am
      Softer tyres make less noise and have more rolling resistance than harder and noisier ones.

      Exactly.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on February 27, 2019, 11:41:06 am
      Another artificial cost savings for EV owners in California/PG&E customers is the special EV electrical rate we can request.  Just did a comparison of last year’s electrical usage and cost.  In my case by owning an EV my electricity bill is 26% less.  This includes car charging and usage in the rest of the house.

      When one buys an EV in California not only do we get over $10,000 in. Cas rebates and tax credits, we also save 26% on electricity costs and we get (in some places) free charging. 

      Isn’t America wonderful?  Drive an EV and your fellow tax payeres subsidize the purchase and operational costs of my EV.  And they pay for just ov r a quarter of my electricty bill. This is capatalism at it’s best.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on March 04, 2019, 05:24:31 pm
      Yep. Mainstream.

      European Car of the Year 2019: Jaguar I-Pace  (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/news/european-car-year-2019-jaguar-i-pace-wins-coty-nose/)

      Quote
      This is the first Jaguar to win the award in the Coty's 55 years and a visibly delighted Ian Callum, Jaguar's director of design, received the award from jury president Frank Janssen.

      "Wow, was that close or what," said Callum, "thank you very much. I don't understand why people make such a fuss over battery electric cars winning this award though; this is the future. It's a whole new Jaguar on a whole new platform and it's the most exciting car I've ever worked on."
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 05, 2019, 12:04:48 am
      Yep. Mainstream.

      That's great to hear!

      Now electrics are run of the mill and nothing special, the green zealots can shut the hell up about them and trying to ram them down everyones throats.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 05, 2019, 01:52:06 am

      Tesla has been going into PR overdrive this last week or so.

      Model Y is supposed to be unveiled next week.  Production is SUPPOSED to be in full swing next year. 
      Heard that before!

      On late promises, The $35K model 3 has been announced it will go into production after being hyped up 3 years ago.
      Like the model T, is available  for the price in any colour you want as long as it's black and is a very stripped down version beyond even what a lot of economy run around cars feature.

      Clear indication here is Tesla has well cleared their backlog orders for the optioned up, longer range cars and all they are left with is those holding out for the cheap, advertised version. The other thing is they can probably see the storm on the horizon with the new models other makers are about to rain down on the EV market and have to have something that will compete in some way with the likes of Hyundai, kia and a swag of others. Even so, For the money the features on the $35K ( -IF- you can actually get one for that) version are pretty basic and they are obviously depending heavily on people optioning the things up which will be software at low/ no cost to make any decent bucks out the things.

      They have also announced the SUV is to be unveiled this year. Given that, should be available for Purchase in about 3 years time. Maybe.  Maybe if they are still around that is.
      This, if it actually makes it to production will be a VERY interesting exercise in marketing.
      Looking like something of a Modern version of what you would expect to see " The A team" Commandos jump out of lead by Mr. T brandishing a .50 cal BMG, it will be a real test of Tesla Loyalty.

      Will people with the money and the brains ( in most cases to aquire it) want to roll up to places looking like they are ready to go fight or just come back from Fighting a war and put up with the inevitable " Wanker" association of driving such a thing?
      Will people whom seem to be significantly green motivated go for something that in effect goes against what a lot of them complain about in IC's being overly large, heavy, using too much energy and resources etc?  It really does go against the small, light , economical mindset of a lot of the EV proponents and greenwashed so it's a risk in the marketing Dept.

      There is also the competition with Rivian and the best selling forever F-150 Electric. That alone will be a tough competitor no matter what it's actually like The brand loyalty will be far greater than even Tesla's.

      That said, If anyone can pull this off it will be the cult of Tesla and it's loyal ( and blind) deciples.

      In another what I feel VERY bold move and perhaps also telling of the companies Financial concerns is the closing of many of it's showrooms and making the vehicles an online order only.
      While people buy everything online these days I'm pretty confident the amount of onlie purchases for a Min of $35K would be a small percentage point of all online sales.  Again if anyone can pull this off it will be tesla but I think it will put an amount of people off none the less. I bet tesla think it will too but the question is how much will lost sales cost as against keeping the showroom doors open and the stores staffed? They would have the numbers to see what the showrooms generate but how many look at a car first and then order online is a different thing.

      There are ways around this though. I have seen Tesla's shown in shopping centres 3 times now and although the cost of doing these display  is not cheap, I'll bet it's cheaper than the costs involved in having a showroom. There is also the advantage of putting the things in front of people who would have never  gone out their way or think of visiting a showroom..... There only being a few in Oz anyway.
      Might be a clever stragegy IF diverting the marketing funds in this way IS what they have in mind.  It's what I'd do so that probably means Tesla won't.


      They have also announced BIG price drops on their other models. Clearly a marketing strategy a company with sufficent orders for their product does not do. In marketing terms this is also a risky move because if you cut your Profit 50% , your sales have to double to keep the same profit as you had before and not go backwards. I don't know what the price drops are as a percentage of their margins but it would seem they WILL bite into them pretty substantially. Again this is an interesting and in reality , worrying strategy. A FAR more economical bait For tesla particularly to throw out there would have been Free up grades and going for increasing the $$ value rather than decreasing the price.  Value added is minimal cost and profit loss. Direct  price discounts are expensive in Comparison.

      Clearly tesla is worried about sticker cost when competing with other brands and have probably figured features alone aren't going to get the deal over the line.

      Another announcement designed to fly the company flag and keep the fanbois placated superchargers going to 350Kw. Obviously to keep up with the Euros on paper as no tesla can charge at this rate and it seems likely given battery chemistry and vehicle weight considerations there won't be  one that can past the current slated projects.

      All these price reductions and annoncements that are a typical plot of " Forget how we failed, look at what we are going to do next" all point to a company that is finding it tougher to shift it's products.  The idea of Nominating the model Y so close on the back of the 3 when it's just said it will finally be available in the 35K version and -saying-  it will not be a lot more expensive is questionable as well. IMHO it would have been much better to put out something closer to the X and S which are aging vehicles that something that has a lot of potential to take sales away from the one you just got sorted production wise.
      Going to be hard for them to compete on anything price wise so working on the niche offerings would have I think been a better strategy. There are a lot of S/X competitors coming onto the market so going into sales battle with products a lot closer to 10 years old than 3 is not going to be an easy sell at all.

      I have been of the position for a while TEsla will be gone in now 4 years. I stand by that with the clarification that it will be gone as it is now being a seperate company. On further thought I still believe they WILL go tits up but there is also the possibility they may be bought out by another manufacturer. They may continue the brand name as that too would be wise given the brand loyalty so unless they screw up big time and the new owner wants to distance themselves, they may still be called Tesla but it won't be the Elon wet dream it is now.

      Even Mr. smoke, mirrors and Bullshit Musk is saying a 1st quarter profit is questionable which unsurprisingly flies well in the face of what he has been adamant about before in that Tesla would be profitable from here on in. Clearly they are pushing REAL hard to make that happen.  The model Y announcement will be strategically times to pull in some deposits which will bolster the bottom line as Tesla is so well know for using money that does not belong to them to fudge the books.

      Of course these major announcements are one shot and while you can keep the fanboi sites happy with crap PR stunt announcements like " Dog mode" has been released for it's cars ( how entirely appropriate although a critical look would tell you  they all leave that with the factory in many parts of the vehicle)  They soon fall back into the ho hum for the mainstream media who are going to go back asking those inconvenient questions that never have answers that provide reassurance to the non Muskaide drinkers.

      Of course this is all on the sales side. There are also other potential problems with musk poking the Tiger with a stick in the SEC and the upcoming bond and loan repayments. They have just ponyied up nearly a Billion, not out of the woods yet by a very long shot. If revenu doesn't come in as they hope, it will be back to the market to get more capitol and given this is something musk has repeatedly said they won't have to do, getting the funds will not be easy or cheap and will cause the share price to tank further.

      4 years and counting down.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: barbeque on March 05, 2019, 03:59:56 am
      Petro-Canada, one of our national gas chains, is putting 50+ level-3 fast chargers "across the country."

      They already have a test one set up. No word on price or placement yet, but I'd bet it will be on stations along the Trans-Canada highway.

      https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/petro-canada-to-add-more-than-50-fast-charging-ev-stations-from-coast-to-coast

      Even with the range reduction when it gets cold in Canada, most of the cars on offer let you turn on the cabin heater remotely so it's toasty warm when you get in, which is really nice! It's probably no worse on economy than when my neighbour remote-starts and leaves their SUV idling in the driveway for an hour every morning to warm it up.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 05, 2019, 04:54:48 pm
      When it comes fue efficiency in cars, regardless of the fuel, gas, diesel, battery or hydrogen about one quarter is lost as heat and sound to overcome rolling resistance and the friction between the road and the tires.

      https://youtu.be/88KuNmjL_LE

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 05, 2019, 05:14:50 pm
      Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: CatalinaWOW on March 05, 2019, 06:23:05 pm
      Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).

      A Microsoft answer.  100% correct, and totally useless.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 05, 2019, 06:27:56 pm
      Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).
      A Microsoft answer.  100% correct, and totally useless.
      To you (and -hopefully- most people who paid attention in physics class) but Doug seems to imply the energy goes somewhere else as well.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: f4eru on March 05, 2019, 07:08:40 pm
      Quote
      Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).
      Yes, that's nearly 100% true.
      But a gas car needs to convert 8x more energy to heat to be able to travel the same distance as a BEV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 05, 2019, 07:44:05 pm
      Quote
      Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).
      Yes, that's nearly 100% true.
      But a gas car needs to convert 8x more energy to heat to be able to travel the same distance as a BEV.
      That depends entirely on where the electricity is coming from and I already showed the math many times that it is unlikely an EV being powered of the grid needs less energy compared to an efficient ICE. 8x is stupidly wrong in any case BTW. I can't see why you keep telling these kind of fairy tales. Also nobody cares about efficiency anyway. TCO is what counts and that is where EVs completely suck in the long term (when free charging goes away and the costs of upgrading the infrastructure become clear).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 05, 2019, 09:32:10 pm
      But a gas car needs to convert 8x more energy to heat to be able to travel the same distance as a BEV.

      Yeah, dunno what spin doctored green koolaide drinking site you got that from but without even looking it up that's clearly a load of crap.
      While the ice is only about 30% efficient, the inefficiency in the battery charging and discharge alone would prevent EV's from being 800% more efficient which is what that 8x number indicates.  Don't even have to look that up to call bullshit.

      Numbers can be cherry picked and spun to suit any agenda but clearly this figure is not a real world number and is taken from some particular set of parameters to sound as impressive as possible.  Unfortunately when something sounds too good to be true, it usually turns out to be a pile of steaming manure. Which this is.

      Quote
      I can't see why you keep telling these kind of fairy tales.

      Well there is irony if there ever was.


      Quote
      TCO is what counts and that is where EVs completely suck in the long term (when free charging goes away and the costs of upgrading the infrastructure become clear).

      Something else I read the other day was Tesla is no longer providing home chargers with the vehicles.
      The cost of a charger in the US and having it wired in on a HD circuit is said to be 2 grand. I would imagine in the US thats a significant part of the fuel cost for an average vehicle for a year straight off.

      If you are if the position you want to charge from home from your panels, Then you would need a minimum of $50K worth of panels to have a hope of realizing that dream in the US and $100K to make sure you could do it all year round.

      A person would have to be confident they could make significant real world savings with an EV before purchisning one over the next few years because with the amount of new models about to come out the wood work from every established manufacturer and a stack of startups,  The EV you buy today will be worth NOTHING in 3-5 years time much like solar panels here.
      That 1.5 KW set you bought 7 years ago many have cost you 8-10 K but a new 6.6 setup is now $4K so you are wasting you time asking for $500 for the old set.

      Going to be a real crapshoot with EV's and their battery life on the used market.  Will it have a few years left on the battery or will it have a few months before the thing falls over and the car is virtually worthless. I can see loads of people whom only want to use the things short distances ripping out the OEM batteries and filling the boot with conventional Deep cycle batteries so the thng can be used just to run around.

      Then again, with all the monitoring and sensors EV's are going to have as well as Big brother looking over your shoulder,  Probably going to be impossible and the only thing they will be good for is scrap.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 06, 2019, 12:27:04 am
      Actually all of the energy you put in a car is converted to heat (assuming your start and end point are at the same height).
      A Microsoft answer.  100% correct, and totally useless.
      To you (and -hopefully- most people who paid attention in physics class) but Doug seems to imply the energy goes somewhere else as well.

      There you go again making things up again.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 12:30:20 am
      Something else I read the other day was Tesla is no longer providing home chargers with the vehicles.
      The cost of a charger in the US and having it wired in on a HD circuit is said to be 2 grand. I would imagine in the US thats a significant part of the fuel cost for an average vehicle for a year straight off.
      And not just that... there is a whole flurry of electric cars about to hit the market. Who guarantees me that (if I buy one) I can still charge it from a public charging spot 10 years from now? And how about 20 years from now? Will there even be a public charging infrastructure in 10 years or are the EVs which are still around only usefull to those who have a charging space at home and like to have a short distance roundabout? Yes, there is a lot of public charging infrastructure right now but it will need maintenance. If there is no money to be made, it is easy to foresee what will happen when maintenance is required. I already spotted some 'out of order' signs in public parking garages which seem to have been hanging there for a while.

      Back in the 70's and 80's there where several competing video cassette standards. In the end VHS 'won' but that system wasn't the first to hit the market or have the best image quality. In 1975 Betamax had a 100% market share in the US but VHS turned out to be cheaper in the end. (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Videotape_format_war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Videotape_format_war) )

      Any car you'll buy needs a supporting infrastructure if you want to use it for long distances.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 06, 2019, 06:27:59 am
      And not just that... there is a whole flurry of electric cars about to hit the market. Who guarantees me that (if I buy one) I can still charge it from a public charging spot 10 years from now? And how about 20 years from now?

      My wife works for a local Council. They have recently taken up a mandate or what ever you call them to start installing EV charge points. ( don't know if free or paid) and council Vehicles are now going to be at least in part, Electric.
      As she is in the running for a wage and advancement review, It may turn out that we have an EV in the driveway being her company car which would be a total hoot given my misgivings about the things. I would love the opportunity to have one though to really get an idea of the reality of living with one.

      Given our distance from her work, it WOULD need to be charged during the day and in any event, unless they are going to pay her charging subsidy, I don't want it adding to our power Bill. An ICE would come with a fuel card so I don't want to be adding to my power bill.
      In reality, given the amount of solar I have and the ability to add plenty more, could make us money so that could be a bonus.



      Quote
      Will there even be a public charging infrastructure in 10 years or are the EVs which are still around only usefull to those who have a charging space at home and like to have a short distance roundabout? It will all depend on demand and popularity.
      My prediction is like most technology's, there will certainly be an early bun rush particularly due to the over hyping and green washing.  Wether they live up to peoples expectations and they take to them after there are enough out there that everyone knows someone that has one, will remain to be seen.  There ill be a myriad of problems with the things due to nothing more than human nature and resistance to change to be fair but then the real dislikes and limitations will show up and it will depend on how people take those.

      It'd be pretty certain though that if the things do not turn out to be cheaper to run, they will not be looked on favorably.
      There is also the thing of cultural preferences. I predict EV's will do far better in some places than others.  Power pricing, range and load carrying will be big factors.  F-150s if they have these things which will probably have to be the equal if the IC's at least in carrying and towing should be OK if all rural US is now electrified.

      Quote
      Any car you'll buy needs a supporting infrastructure if you want to use it for long distances.

      And this is a big sticking point I see as a problem.  Charging up hundreds/ thousands of cars at holiday time is going to be a big hurdle.
      As our main holidays are in summer time when power is already short, loads of cars all wanting to charge up at once is going to require massive additional power.  We are expecting blackouts due to power shortages over the next few summers at least and the worry is there is no planning for an increase in infrastructure to address this.  These things take a Minimum of 5 years from planing to first siod being turned so maybe 10 years before anything is in place.

      I have been  putting in generators and more solar panels but I think I'll start stockpiling them while the things can be had at a reasonable price.
      Could be a real good investment for the future to have them in reserve and sell them off as well.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: EEVblog on March 06, 2019, 06:50:20 am
      NOTE: I cleaned up this thread to remove the off-topic posts. Please try to stick to the topic.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 07:26:00 am
      electric apparently uses around 250Wh per mile, the drive train is around 90% efficient. Internal combustion engines as the name suggests make more heat and are more wasteful at 30-40% efficiency. After that you can argue about your tyres or whatever but the differences between an electric drive train and ICE es massive.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on March 06, 2019, 07:48:52 am

      Looking at the article I linked to above, the true fallacy of EV's being cheaper to run comes out:

      From this week, the pioneering electric car-maker from California will increase the average price of charging at any of its Australian and New Zealand supercharger stations from $0.35 per kWh to $0.42 per kWh, or 20 per cent.

      In reality, the price hikes mean it will cost an additional $5.25 to fully replenish a Tesla Model S with a 75kWh battery (claimed 490km range), or $31.50.
      ....blahblahblah
      To sum up.


      to try to convince us that at an ICE vehicle getting 7l/100km (7@1.30/l = $9.10) is somehow more efficient than an electric (20@0.30= $6.00)

      Your misrepresentation of reality is right up there with most politicians.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 07:53:09 am
      If my car was electric and I charged at home on the nightly rate it would cost £0.03/m, I am currently paying £0.15/m in petrol, fact and end of!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fourtytwo42 on March 06, 2019, 08:22:10 am
      If my car was electric and I charged at home on the nightly rate it would cost £0.03/m, I am currently paying £0.15/m in petrol, fact and end of!
      Using my rates (20p/Kwh) the charge would be £0.10/m vs my diesel at £0.12/m however the capital amortization makes an electric unthinkable for me in addition to the range restriction making it impracticable as an only car.....fact and end of :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 06, 2019, 10:11:37 am
      electric apparently uses around 250Wh per mile, the drive train is around 90% efficient. Internal combustion engines as the name suggests make more heat and are more wasteful at 30-40% efficiency. After that you can argue about your tyres or whatever but the differences between an electric drive train and ICE es massive.

      Where do you come up with the drive train 90% efficient.  Rolling resistance of 25% efficient.  Doesn’t matter if it is ICE, EV, Hydrogen or diesel. 

      Rolling resistance discussed at 9:51
      https://youtu.be/88KuNmjL_LE

      https://youtu.be/c170ZimUybQ
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 10:19:25 am
      Maybe drive train is the wrong word. OK the motor/engine. Off the bat ICI turns 60+% of what you put in into heat. So the which one is most efficient is easy to answer unless your tring to make stuff up!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 10:21:41 am
      electric apparently uses around 250Wh per mile, the drive train is around 90% efficient. Internal combustion engines as the name suggests make more heat and are more wasteful at 30-40% efficiency. After that you can argue about your tyres or whatever but the differences between an electric drive train and ICE es massive.
      If you'd read the rest of the thread you'd know efficiency isn't important at all. Costs are. But if you insist on comparing efficiencies you must factor in the source of the electricity. And then things turn really ugly.

      Also your electicity price seems way to low. I think you forgot to add taxes and distribution costs. According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:
      (http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/35-domestic-electricity-2.png)

      From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/ (http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/)
      If you do the math with these prices you'll see an EV is on par with the average ICE car when it comes to cost per km IF you charge at home. An efficient ICE will be cheaper to run! If you have to rely on public charging infrastructure then the price per km for the EV will at least double.

      In the end it is all about costs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 10:23:52 am
      Overnight we can pay 8-9p/KWh. yes the cost of the fuel is important.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 10:30:56 am
      Overnight we can pay 8-9p/KWh. yes the cost of the fuel is important.
      But that is likely without taxes and distribution costs. These usually are hidden in the fine print. All in all the difference is too small to make an EV cheaper to run compared to an efficient ICE based car.

      I see now I posted a graph without the distribution costs included. Hold on a minute.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 10:34:27 am
      Overnight we can pay 8-9p/KWh. yes the cost of the fuel is important.
      But that is likely without taxes and distribution costs. These usually are hidden in the fine print. All in all the difference is minimal.

      Are you being stupid or what? I am telling YOEU that I in the UK will pay 8-9p/KWh overnight - ALL IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! just go on a UK supplier website and check, then call me a liar. This is for Economy 7 where you will pay more by day. On a regular tariff you pay 12p/KWh. Now are you going to continue to call me a liar or accept the FACT?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 10:41:23 am
      Just check your bill. I'm paying around 23 eurocents (17p) per kWh (which is about average for the NL) and all lists I can find show electricity is more expensive in the UK. Something isn't right.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 06, 2019, 10:43:01 am
      electric apparently uses around 250Wh per mile, the drive train is around 90% efficient. Internal combustion engines as the name suggests make more heat and are more wasteful at 30-40% efficiency. After that you can argue about your tyres or whatever but the differences between an electric drive train and ICE es massive.
      If you'd read the rest of the thread you'd know efficiency isn't important at all. Costs are. But if you insist on comparing efficiencies you must factor in the source of the electricity. And then things turn really ugly.

      Also your electicity price seems way to low. I think you forgot to add taxes and distribution costs. According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:
      (http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/35-domestic-electricity-2.png)

      From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/ (http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/)
      If you do the math with these prices you'll see an EV is on par with the average ICE car when it comes to cost per km IF you charge at home. An efficient ICE will be cheaper to run! If you have to rely on public charging infrastructure then the price per km for the EV will at least double.

      In the end it is all about costs.

      There you go again posting misleading information.  What you have posted i the average price not th actual price.  In the US there can be a 260% difference between the actual price someone typically pays to charge a car and the average price.  In the US where I live average cost per kWhr is $0.31.  it. Can’t buy electricity at the average price.  I have to pay either $0.12 or $0.50 kWhr.

      I suspect it is the same for my European relatives.  And I suspect my European relatives are not as daft
      As you are and would pay a much lower rate when charging their EV.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 10:48:23 am
      You can't compare US prices to European prices because the population density, infrastructure costs and taxes are way different.

      I just checked for myself. The cheapest I can get is 0.214 eurocent/kWh and the most expensive one costs 0.247/0.227 (night) eurocents per kWh.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 10:51:57 am
      Just check your bill. I'm paying around 23 eurocents (17p) per kWh (which is about average for the NL) and all lists I can find show electricity is more expensive in the UK. Something isn't right.

      I pay 18p/KWh because I use a more expensive supplier (my choice), i know what i pay. You are just peddaling BS to make a non argument. Infact i pay way less than that because I generate my own anyway and once the cost went over 12p/KWh the battery systems become viable. Daily connection charges which you will pay anyway because your house needs power anyway are under 20p/day.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 10:56:11 am
      Just check your bill. I'm paying around 23 eurocents (17p) per kWh (which is about average for the NL) and all lists I can find show electricity is more expensive in the UK. Something isn't right.

      I pay 18p/KWh because I use a more expensive supplier (my choice), i know what i pay. You are just peddaling BS to make a non argument. Infact i pay way less than that because I generate my own anyway and once the cost went over 12p/KWh the battery systems become viable. Daily connection charges which you will pay anyway because your house needs power anyway are under 20p/day.
      So you are not paying 8p per kWh then and get electricity for free out of thin air? Who is peddaling BS here?

      Show use how your battery system can be cost effective at that price point. I ran some numbers on Tesla's powerwall and came to the conclusion that it costs around 30 eurocents to store 1kWh in it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 06, 2019, 10:59:59 am
      You are correct about nctnico.  He has a long history of posting false and misleading information.  The sad part is he doen’t learn.  When people point out what’s wrong with his post he just continues to insist he’s correct without proving any proof.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on March 06, 2019, 11:04:50 am
      According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:
      <snip>
      From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/ (http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/)
      That website looks like a pro-oil blog, or at least not particularly reliable, so I wouldn't trust that graph.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 11:17:50 am
      According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:
      <snip>
      From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/ (http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/)
      That website looks like a pro-oil blog, or at least not particularly reliable, so I wouldn't trust that graph.
      It is a random pick from Google which at least had some recent data. There are probably other (even more recent) graphs out there but I doubt they will show something different.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 11:21:04 am
      Just check your bill. I'm paying around 23 eurocents (17p) per kWh (which is about average for the NL) and all lists I can find show electricity is more expensive in the UK. Something isn't right.

      I pay 18p/KWh because I use a more expensive supplier (my choice), i know what i pay. You are just peddaling BS to make a non argument. Infact i pay way less than that because I generate my own anyway and once the cost went over 12p/KWh the battery systems become viable. Daily connection charges which you will pay anyway because your house needs power anyway are under 20p/day.
      So you are not paying 8p per kWh then and get electricity for free out of thin air? Who is peddaling BS here?

      Show use how your battery system can be cost effective at that price point. I ran some numbers on Tesla's powerwall and came to the conclusion that it costs around 30 eurocents to store 1kWh in it.

      I TOLD YOU THE PRICES! there are different tariffs. If you want to charge a car you go on economy 7 and pay 8-9p/KWh. You are the one telling lies.

      just go here and try it: https://www.moneysupermarket.com/gas-and-electricity/gas-and-electricity/?p=0&cicp1=&source=GOO-00003A73&mckv=sBILE2p3G (https://www.moneysupermarket.com/gas-and-electricity/gas-and-electricity/?p=0&cicp1=&source=GOO-00003A73&mckv=sBILE2p3G)|dc_pcrid_219283378075_mtype_e_kword_electricity%20costs_2764ri918980_slid__pgrid_3412251394_ptaid_aud-457883188026:kwd-41251250&uuid=11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111&Device=c&engine=google&ptaid=aud-457883188026%3Akwd-41251250&gclid=CjwKCAiA_P3jBRAqEiwAZyWWaFJXWHjlmaK8snUcto-D8c_obzdQIwhMJdIaTD9DZR5RADRaABYk3RoC8JYQAvD_BwE&adloc=1007208&pgrid=3412251394
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 11:22:34 am
      According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:
      <snip>
      From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/ (http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/)
      That website looks like a pro-oil blog, or at least not particularly reliable, so I wouldn't trust that graph.
      It is a random pick from Google which at least had some recent data. There are probably other (even more recent) graphs out there but I doubt they will show something different.

      So now you arguments are based on some random information on the internet? Do you know who the last person was that said: "All i know is what i read on the internet" as though it was an excuse for telling lies? yes Donald Trump!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 11:28:20 am
      No, I'm offering a reference to back my story. Feel free to come up with another source. These kind of graphs aren't hard to find and they are based on numbers provided by statistics bureaus. There isn't anything un-scientific about them.\

      By the way I tried the energy comparison website with a random address in London. This is the cheapest I can get:
      (https://www.eevblog.com/forum/renewable-energy/when-will-electric-cars-become-mainstream/?action=dlattach;attach=669426;image)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 11:32:40 am
      You are telling me that I am lying about the price of electricity in the UK. I told you that you can use the internet properly and go and look at the prices of a UK energy supplier! but ypou are too lazy and "what you found on the internet" conveniently suits your narrative. Same old tactics used by certain politicians!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 11:36:59 am
      You are telling me that I am lying about the price of electricity in the UK. I told you that you can use the internet properly and go and look at the prices of a UK energy supplier! but ypou are too lazy and "what you found on the internet" conveniently suits your narrative. Same old tactics used by certain politicians!
      Putting up a smoke screen by name calling isn't a very good tactic to make a good argument for your case. Not saying you are lying. I'm just saying that I'm missing the numbers which back your claim.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fourtytwo42 on March 06, 2019, 11:50:13 am
      Just check your bill. I'm paying around 23 eurocents (17p) per kWh (which is about average for the NL) and all lists I can find show electricity is more expensive in the UK. Something isn't right.
      I pay 18p/KWh because I use a more expensive supplier (my choice), i know what i pay. You are just peddaling BS to make a non argument. Infact i pay way less than that because I generate my own anyway and once the cost went over 12p/KWh the battery systems become viable. Daily connection charges which you will pay anyway because your house needs power anyway are under 20p/day.
      I don't know where you are buying your electricity from Simon, I am also in the UK (Norfolk) and use Ebico one of the cheapest available and its 20p/Kwh FACT! If I chose a dual tariff for cheaper overnight charging my daytime costs rise in proportion so I save nothing. Alternatively I could go for a standing charge free tariff that gives me a lower cost per Kwh but then I would have to use an awful lot of Kwh to get back to square one.

      There is no point in quoting unrealistically low electricity prices the same as there is no point in quoting manufacturers consumption/efficiency figures as most of us have long learnt to ignore them!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 12:04:47 pm
      I'm paying 18p with ecotricity. I just left a supplier that was messing me about that just put their prices up to 14p, you can always check the ecotricity website.......
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 06, 2019, 12:08:01 pm
      Just check your bill. I'm paying around 23 eurocents (17p) per kWh (which is about average for the NL) and all lists I can find show electricity is more expensive in the UK. Something isn't right.
      I pay 18p/KWh because I use a more expensive supplier (my choice), i know what i pay. You are just peddaling BS to make a non argument. Infact i pay way less than that because I generate my own anyway and once the cost went over 12p/KWh the battery systems become viable. Daily connection charges which you will pay anyway because your house needs power anyway are under 20p/day.
      I don't know where you are buying your electricity from Simon, I am also in the UK (Norfolk) and use Ebico one of the cheapest available and its 20p/Kwh FACT! If I chose a dual tariff for cheaper overnight charging my daytime costs rise in proportion so I save nothing. Alternatively I could go for a standing charge free tariff that gives me a lower cost per Kwh but then I would have to use an awful lot of Kwh to get back to square one.

      There is no point in quoting unrealistically low electricity prices the same as there is no point in quoting manufacturers consumption/efficiency figures as most of us have long learnt to ignore them!

      Yes day rates do increase but whe do you use.your electricity?  If you would save $50-$75 per month on electricty would you change when you use electricty?  That’s what we did, and I know many others who have done the same.

      We now buy 75%-80% of our electricty at the low rate.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 06, 2019, 12:09:55 pm
      You are telling me that I am lying about the price of electricity in the UK. I told you that you can use the internet properly and go and look at the prices of a UK energy supplier! but ypou are too lazy and "what you found on the internet" conveniently suits your narrative. Same old tactics used by certain politicians!
      Perhaps you could post your evidence including taxes to get a step further instead of rejecting the other parties quotes ?
      BTW, I find your use of language in the last couple of posts not suiting your status of a moderator Simon, I will R2M to Dave because this is really setting the wrong tone IMO.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 12:13:15 pm
      You are telling me that I am lying about the price of electricity in the UK. I told you that you can use the internet properly and go and look at the prices of a UK energy supplier! but ypou are too lazy and "what you found on the internet" conveniently suits your narrative. Same old tactics used by certain politicians!
      Perhaps you could post your evidence including taxes to get a step further instead of rejecting the other parties quotes ?
      BTW, I find your use of language in the last couple of posts not suiting your status of a moderator Simon, I will R2M to Dave because this is really setting the wrong tone IMO.

      I was not the one making repeated false statements. So now I have to prove myself? like i said just look at any UK supplier website and you will find out the truth! if I had the time to waste I'd blank out my address on my bill and post a copy because apparently I can't read my own bills now!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 06, 2019, 12:16:11 pm
      That was not my real point, it was that you are shouting and ranting and that sets a bad example for other users since you are a moderator of this forum.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 12:21:45 pm
      No, I am calling a liar a liar! nctnico is a liar! fact. He has repeatedly stated that what he says is correct despite me explaining that his prices are wrong ond i know they are because I pay for electricity in the UK! He has refused to say he is wrong and took a long time to drop the matter after many challenges and his excuse is that he found this data on the internet. We know what misinformation breeds and it will not be tolerated here!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 12:33:31 pm
      Part of my bill, and as I said I am using an expensive supplier.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 06, 2019, 12:39:56 pm
      How do I read this then ? For electricity it says 44kWh 17 pounds that would be 38p / kWh. ?
      It says 17p per kWh and a standing charge of 27p
      Aren't you looking at the gas price instead of electricity?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 12:44:16 pm
      I said my electricity is 18p, add 5% tax to that 17p and you get the 18p. Standing charges are irrilevant here. We are talking about the price of electricity to charge a car. You already have your house connected to the grid and have to pay the standing charge before you worry about an electric car. Again I am using an expensive supplier, others charge way less like 18p.

      My bill looks expensive because I have used nearly nothing and there is more in standing charges, this is because I have just got solar and now the sun is out. I will use 2MWh per year but I will generate 5.3MWh per year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on March 06, 2019, 12:44:55 pm
      How do I read this then ? For electricity it says 44kWh 17 pounds that would be 38p / kWh. ?
      It says 17p per kWh and a standing charge of 27p
      Aren't you looking at the gas price instead of electricity?
      His statement shows you the price per kWh - 17.42 pence + 5% VAT. His final bill looks high because he uses very little electricity, so his daily 27.75p + 5% VAT standing charge really biases the final bill up. For people who use a more typical amount of electricity, the daily standing charge wouldn't distort things so much
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 06, 2019, 01:06:44 pm
      No, I am calling a liar a liar! nctnico is a liar! fact. He has repeatedly stated that what he says is correct despite me explaining that his prices are wrong ond i know they are because I pay for electricity in the UK! He has refused to say he is wrong and took a long time to drop the matter after many challenges and his excuse is that he found this data on the internet. We know what misinformation breeds and it will not be tolerated here!

      Thank you for for your post.  I have given nctnico the benefit of the doubt for being uneducated, but you are right he’s nothing more than a liar.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 01:12:29 pm
      Part of my bill, and as I said I am using an expensive supplier.
      Sorry but I'm still waiting to see the 8p/kWh number... and while you are at it: how & where that applies. Perhaps only for people (like Boffin) living near a hydro plant so transportation costs and CO2 taxes are near zero.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 01:26:42 pm
      Part of my bill, and as I said I am using an expensive supplier.
      Sorry but I'm still waiting to see the 8p/kWh number... and while you are at it: how & where that applies. Perhaps only for people (like Boffin) living near a hydro plant so transportation costs and CO2 taxes are near zero.

      I said 8-9p and i said that is on economy 7, which is a tariff I am not on. And you con still go look up the tariffs if you want but you refuse. If i was on economy 7 I would pay more by day. People on economy 7 usually have something big to power at night like a car or heating. I am on solar so i just take the standard tariff. If I wanted I could charge my house battery at night if the difference was big enough.

      If I had an electric car which I would struggle to charge on solar I would got economy 7 and I would pay 8-9p which if the claims for EV are true of 250Wh/mile is 2-3p/mile.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: fourtytwo42 on March 06, 2019, 01:34:12 pm
      Standing charges are irrilevant here. We are talking about the price of electricity to charge a car. You already have your house connected to the grid and have to pay the standing charge before you worry about an electric car.
      Sorry I disagree, the standing charge is part of the cost of energy and if you are paying it separately should be accounted for by adding it to the cost per Kwh. If you choose a tariff like me without standing charge then it is not true to say it was present before I started charging a car.  The choice of tariff style (with/without standing charge) comes down to how much energy you use, my style is energy saving hence it is cheaper for me to do without the standing charge.

      As for overnight use I had to smile at the suggestion I should use most of my energy at night, I can only assume the poster is nocturnal, as for me I prefer to sleep at night and work and cook during the day :)

      I don't know if the figure quoted for energy consumption includes battery and charger efficiency, in any case the idea of adding 60Kw/h to my present 3Kw/h per day is eye watering! BUT I am happy to admit each for his own and it may work for some people :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 01:40:14 pm
      most people have a fixed standing charge and they are using electricity anfway. This means that if you choose to also put electricity in a car that is just more use. Rarely is it that a tariff has no charge.

      For me a car and economy 7 would be perfect because in the day I do not need grid power with my batteries and a car could be charged overnight. Ultimately my car which is a little 1.25L fiesta costs me 15p per mile in petrol so there is ample difference to pay for the battery lease and I once did some rough calculations that put my break even annual mileage at 7000 miles and I would start to save 10+p/mile. The othor thing to consider in running costs is servicing and in principle an electric car is simpler.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 06, 2019, 03:29:24 pm
      Rarely is it that a tariff has no charge.

      This is a good point I hadn't thought of or factored in to my calculations.

      Here virtually everyone that has put on solar in the last few years ( and converted beyond that as I have) heats their hot water with it through the day instead of feeding back to the grid and getting less as a FIT than they would pay for Off peak hot water.

      To be able to charge a car at night, You would have to put the off peak back on which depending in the retailer is ballpark $200 and then you have to pay the Offpeak  supply charge as well. You would have to pay for a charging point to be installed which would require a special high amp circuit to be run from the meter box.  Depending on what you already have hooked up to the home, You would then either have to go to 3 phase which is thousands to have connected as they have to run new wires from the pole OR you would have to have a high amp single phase supply connected and the Meter box and meters ( which the home owner in most cases now pays for ) upgraded as well as the cost of the connection being run to the garage.

      Either way you cut it, it's several thousand  bux PLUS the charging unit itself.  there is also the additional off peak supply charge to be added in.

      It IS more exy to run an EV here but all this is even more added expense I hadn't thought of.
      Come to think of it, pretty sure offpeak is current limited and the high current supply is different and more exy again.  I also have an inkling that there are KWH limitations and as you use more ( in large blocks) the price goes UP rather than down. Might seem odd to some but our water here works the same way.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 03:34:34 pm
      Why would off peak be current limited? In the UK we have 63A single phase supply. I don't know what the connection fees are for what we call an economy 7 tariff. At the end of the day spreading demand over the 24 hours is good for the industry because you con't just turn off many power plants and you can't control the wind so they sell night time electricity cheaply to encourage it as they have to an extent generate it anyway.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on March 06, 2019, 07:22:44 pm
      According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:
      <snip>
      From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/ (http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/)
      That website looks like a pro-oil blog, or at least not particularly reliable, so I wouldn't trust that graph.
      It is a random pick from Google which at least had some recent data. There are probably other (even more recent) graphs out there but I doubt they will show something different.
      If your standard is a random pick from the internet you can find a graph that proves anything you want. Even if something is technically correct it can still be just as misleading as a lie. (It might be the truth, noting but the truth, but not quite the whole truth).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 06, 2019, 07:34:23 pm
      We call that a sophism.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 07:35:53 pm
      According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:
      <snip>
      From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/ (http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/)
      That website looks like a pro-oil blog, or at least not particularly reliable, so I wouldn't trust that graph.
      It is a random pick from Google which at least had some recent data. There are probably other (even more recent) graphs out there but I doubt they will show something different.
      If your standard is a random pick from the internet you can find a graph that proves anything you want. Even if something is technically correct it can still be just as misleading as a lie. (It might be the truth, noting but the truth, but not quite the whole truth).
      Ofcourse I check if there is a valid source, the data is consistent with other sources and the data is recent. The graph I linked to earlier met all those criteria. That should go without saying. There is no use to show & link to numbers which cannot be backed up with solid statistics. Again, feel free to contest the validity of the data with another source. I'm very confident it will say the same because the graph is consistent with other data (in this case electricity prices across Europe) I have seen elsewhere. It is a random pick in a sense that it depends on what Google decides to put in the first 100 results when looking for a graph.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on March 06, 2019, 07:38:03 pm
      Loving the insanity here.   For those that think Simon is lying, here's a UK power quote for not far from where I previously lived.
      just under 18p day rate and just over 8p night rate.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 06, 2019, 07:41:11 pm
      I thought it was nctnico who was being called a liar by forum members.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 07:42:24 pm
      Loving the insanity here.   For those that think Simon is lying, here's a UK power quote for not far from where I previously lived.
      just under 18p day rate and just over 8p night rate.
      Thanks for clarifying without drama. But where is that? Can everyone in the UK get this tarif? What are the conditions?

      Edit: It seems SSE (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Hydro_Electric (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Hydro_Electric)) has a lot of genering capacity from hydro power. So my assumption that this rate is for hydro power which makes the electricity cheap turns out to be correct.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on March 06, 2019, 08:35:56 pm
      Loving the insanity here.   For those that think Simon is lying, here's a UK power quote for not far from where I previously lived.
      just under 18p day rate and just over 8p night rate.
      Thanks for clarifying without drama. But where is that? Can everyone in the UK get this tarif? What are the conditions?

      Edit: It seems SSE (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Hydro_Electric (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Hydro_Electric)) has a lot of genering capacity from hydro power. So my assumption that this rate is for hydro power which makes the electricity cheap turns out to be correct.

      it wouldn't be possible for you to quote something without actually reading and understanding it, would it.
      1) SSE get 29% of their energy from sun, wind, water (so much for your assumption) -see your linked article
      2) It's not just Scotland, it's all of the UK that they serve - see your linked article

      Other providers for electricity in the UK all have similar (+/- 20%) rates of around 20p/day, 10p/night, and the postal code I quoted this for was actually the south coast of the UK, just about as far from Scotland as you can get

      I'm in Canada, yet I can do the research as to what UK customers pay.  It appears all you do is find the highest (or lowest) number that suits your narrative, and quote it without reference.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 06, 2019, 09:02:53 pm
      No, I looked at an address in London. It would have been easy for Simon to just show the numbers like you did. Yet I don't quite get why I can't get the low rates you write about in London. As I wrote before: there is no use to cherry pick the highest numbers in a discussion and neither is cherry picking the lowest numbers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 06, 2019, 09:06:41 pm
      Why would off peak be current limited?

      Because its a domestic supply for domestic purposes such as water heating, Running Pool pumps , bore pumps and a couple of other prescribed relatively low wattage ( as in NOT 20Kw industrial ) type household type loads.

      There are other controlled load rates for higher output as would be connected to a vehicle which are cheaper than standard rate but more expensive than domestic off peak.  There is also in some areas a controlled load rate that is available through the day  but is switched on by the power cos at no set time but rather has a minimum of 4 hours availability... at whatever times they choose.

      63A x 240V is only 15Kw.  Not exactly massive power input for charging and electric.  If you wanted to hook up any circuit over 32A ( 7.3 Kw) here atm you would HAVE to go 3 phase because of line balancing issues which they are big on now. Most new homes are also only being wired for 42A supply and the loads are being calculated based on the circuits on the board as to whether  3 Phase must be connected which isn't cheap.

      If you have Ducted AC, Electric appliances and a pool, You'll definitely be up for another few grand.  If the place is existing and you want to go from  single to 3 Phase, best you have $5K  under the pillow...... IF they deem the transformer servicing your street has sufficient capacity.
      If not, you will be required to pay for the upgrade even though it will service multiple people in the street.

      Exactly what happened to a mate when wanting to upgrade his supply.  No capacity left in the street but we can install a new transformer for you for a bit over $70 Grand. It is far from an uncommon occurrence even with homes being the last ones in the street to be built.

      What EV do you have?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 06, 2019, 09:38:32 pm

      One thing I noticed when researching plans here ( Effing " Plans", who came up with that BS??)  is that nearly every billing scam with a solar feed in is single rate. IE, NO Off peak. You are screwed over for the same rate anytime you use power.

      They giveth with one hand and tear back with the other.  The ones that do have off peak, if you dig hard enough to find them, have a much lower  feed in rate for solar.  They make effort to Fk you over either way.

      A hidden cost of EV charging. By being able to charge at a lower rate at night, your solar generated power going back to the grid when the car is at work or out with you during the day would loose money over what it would with a single rate when you could heat the hot water and run the pool pump during the day using your own power.
      It's a hidden cost that won't show up on any bill ( how convenient for the power cos) but you will be paying none the less.

      The story is never as simple and straight forward as it appears. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 06, 2019, 10:25:19 pm

      One thing I noticed when researching plans here ( Effing " Plans", who came up with that BS??)  is that nearly every billing scam with a solar feed in is single rate. IE, NO Off peak. You are screwed over for the same rate anytime you use power.

      They giveth with one hand and tear back with the other.  The ones that do have off peak, if you dig hard enough to find them, have a much lower  feed in rate for solar.  They make effort to Fk you over either way.

      A hidden cost of EV charging. By being able to charge at a lower rate at night, your solar generated power going back to the grid when the car is at work or out with you during the day would loose money over what it would with a single rate when you could heat the hot water and run the pool pump during the day using your own power.
      It's a hidden cost that won't show up on any bill ( how convenient for the power cos) but you will be paying none the less.

      The story is never as simple and straight forward as it appears.

      Not so in the US.  We get to "sell" power to the power at peak times and buy the electricity back the same day for 400% less.  But there is a catch....  If at the end of the year we have any energy credit dollars, we have to give those kWhrs/energy credit dollars to the power company for free. 

      The advantage for a consumer who consumes most of their electricity at night is they need far fewer panels.  But for those who have a air conditioner and pool pump they run during the day they are screwed.  They would need maybe three to four times the number of solar panels to maybe cover the amount of electricity they use per year.

      I've received quotes were the solar designer has me at the end of 25 years giving $125,000 of free electricity to the power company for free.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 06, 2019, 10:44:43 pm
      No, I looked at an address in London. It would have been easy for Simon to just show the numbers like you did. Yet I don't quite get why I can't get the low rates you write about in London. As I wrote before: there is no use to cherry pick the highest numbers in a discussion and neither is cherry picking the lowest numbers.

      I did! I showed you my actual bill!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on March 06, 2019, 11:28:22 pm
      No, I looked at an address in London. It would have been easy for Simon to just show the numbers like you did. Yet I don't quite get why I can't get the low rates you write about in London. As I wrote before: there is no use to cherry pick the highest numbers in a discussion and neither is cherry picking the lowest numbers.

      Go to http://uswitch.com/gas-electricity/ (http://uswitch.com/gas-electricity/)
      and you always end up with approx (+/-20%) 0.20/day, 0.10/night; just like Simon told you, over and over.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 07, 2019, 12:21:14 am

      Not so in the US.

      This seems to be a sticking point some refuse to accept especially when it does not favor the POV they want to push.  Things are different all over and what works ( or does not work) in one place does not mean it's the same all over.

      The  scam's I was looking at this morning are either 8 or 12C  solar feed in and 23 to 33 c when you buy from the scammers.
      The deals you have are way beyond anything available here, not even in the same ball park.
      What you have is a dream compared to anything we can get and while it might seem unfair to you to have to give the power cos the credits, to me the deal still sounds fantastic!

      Because my systems is bootleg, the power is wasted all together when I make more than I use. I have to shut the inverters off so I don't go into credit or I will get a please explain and a smartarse meter.  I know you love them and I can see why but they are merely a tool for fking us over every which way here.

      I would be happy to give any excess back and I could then point out something else I do for the environment that 99% of the green whingers can't match but they are to greedy so in the one case which would be way beyond insignificance, they screw themselves over.
      Then again, I have been talking to a few people from different forums that are in teh same boat here and want to do their own systems the same way. 

      I'm sure a LOT of people wouldn't care what they gave back if they could get a nil or good as bill.

      Given our impending dire power crisis looming over the next few years and maybe 5-10, I predict a drastic turn around in policy from the power co's . The whole solar thing was started in the first place here because the grid was a shambles and the advent of Cheap AC and the uptake thereof had put huge pressure on the grid it couldn't meet. Solar was the stopgap measure to reduce the burden.  Unfortunately they let the cat out the bag which will never go back in although they are trying to tie it's feet together best they can.

      Now we are heading back to the same, or actually far worse shortages, taking the hobbles off rooftop solar may be something they look at so the grid doesn't melt in a steaming pile and it would also be a way of being able to meet the green targets both sides are riding on for our up coming election.

      Will all depend on how bad things get and how much pressure is bought on the pollies and their power co masters to keep the lights on.


       We get to "sell" power to the power at peak times and buy the electricity back the same day for 400% less.  But there is a catch....  If at the end of the year we have any energy credit dollars, we have to give those kWhrs/energy credit dollars to the power company for free. 

      The advantage for a consumer who consumes most of their electricity at night is they need far fewer panels.  But for those who have a air conditioner and pool pump they run during the day they are screwed.  They would need maybe three to four times the number of solar panels to maybe cover the amount of electricity they use per year.

      I've received quotes were the solar designer has me at the end of 25 years giving $125,000 of free electricity to the power company for free.
      [/quote]
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on March 07, 2019, 12:53:27 am
      No, I am calling a liar a liar! nctnico is a liar! fact. He has repeatedly stated that what he says is correct despite me explaining that his prices are wrong ond i know they are because I pay for electricity in the UK! He has refused to say he is wrong and took a long time to drop the matter after many challenges and his excuse is that he found this data on the internet. We know what misinformation breeds and it will not be tolerated here!
      Sounds rantish to me. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on March 07, 2019, 12:58:49 am

      One thing I noticed when researching plans here ( Effing " Plans", who came up with that BS??)  is that nearly every billing scam with a solar feed in is single rate. IE, NO Off peak. You are screwed over for the same rate anytime you use power.

      They giveth with one hand and tear back with the other.  The ones that do have off peak, if you dig hard enough to find them, have a much lower  feed in rate for solar.  They make effort to Fk you over either way.

      A hidden cost of EV charging. By being able to charge at a lower rate at night, your solar generated power going back to the grid when the car is at work or out with you during the day would loose money over what it would with a single rate when you could heat the hot water and run the pool pump during the day using your own power.
      It's a hidden cost that won't show up on any bill ( how convenient for the power cos) but you will be paying none the less.

      The story is never as simple and straight forward as it appears.

      Not so in the US.  We get to "sell" power to the power at peak times and buy the electricity back the same day for 400% less.  But there is a catch....  If at the end of the year we have any energy credit dollars, we have to give those kWhrs/energy credit dollars to the power company for free. 


      That's not correct in San Diego.  They will buy it back at wholesale rates. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 07, 2019, 01:35:54 am

      One thing I noticed when researching plans here ( Effing " Plans", who came up with that BS??)  is that nearly every billing scam with a solar feed in is single rate. IE, NO Off peak. You are screwed over for the same rate anytime you use power.

      They giveth with one hand and tear back with the other.  The ones that do have off peak, if you dig hard enough to find them, have a much lower  feed in rate for solar.  They make effort to Fk you over either way.

      A hidden cost of EV charging. By being able to charge at a lower rate at night, your solar generated power going back to the grid when the car is at work or out with you during the day would loose money over what it would with a single rate when you could heat the hot water and run the pool pump during the day using your own power.
      It's a hidden cost that won't show up on any bill ( how convenient for the power cos) but you will be paying none the less.

      The story is never as simple and straight forward as it appears.

      Not so in the US.  We get to "sell" power to the power at peak times and buy the electricity back the same day for 400% less.  But there is a catch....  If at the end of the year we have any energy credit dollars, we have to give those kWhrs/energy credit dollars to the power company for free. 


      That's not correct in San Diego.  They will buy it back at wholesale rates.

      So can you even trade kWhrs?  If you have an extra one can you "loan" it to the San Diego power company until you need it say at night?  Some of PG&E rate plans are like that.  (PG&E has 9 different residential rate plans.)  The newest rate plans have PG&E buying extra electricity from residential customers at the current (meaning time of day) retail rate.  Meaning during mid-day if I have one extra kWhr I can sell it to PG&E for $0.50.  Later the same day I can buy that kWhr back for just  $0.12.  The $0.38 difference is goes into my energy credit "bank" so I can buy kWhrs at a later time when I need them.  But I have to pay current price.  Not sure about San Diego, but here in PG&E territory our rate changes 5 times every weekday and 3 times on weekends.  In the summer prices for peak times increase by 40% or $0.12 per kWhr.



       

       


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on March 07, 2019, 05:34:51 am

      One thing I noticed when researching plans here ( Effing " Plans", who came up with that BS??)  is that nearly every billing scam with a solar feed in is single rate. IE, NO Off peak. You are screwed over for the same rate anytime you use power.

      They giveth with one hand and tear back with the other.  The ones that do have off peak, if you dig hard enough to find them, have a much lower  feed in rate for solar.  They make effort to Fk you over either way.

      A hidden cost of EV charging. By being able to charge at a lower rate at night, your solar generated power going back to the grid when the car is at work or out with you during the day would loose money over what it would with a single rate when you could heat the hot water and run the pool pump during the day using your own power.
      It's a hidden cost that won't show up on any bill ( how convenient for the power cos) but you will be paying none the less.

      The story is never as simple and straight forward as it appears.

      Not so in the US.  We get to "sell" power to the power at peak times and buy the electricity back the same day for 400% less.  But there is a catch....  If at the end of the year we have any energy credit dollars, we have to give those kWhrs/energy credit dollars to the power company for free. 


      That's not correct in San Diego.  They will buy it back at wholesale rates.

      So can you even trade kWhrs?  If you have an extra one can you "loan" it to the San Diego power company until you need it say at night?  Some of PG&E rate plans are like that.  (PG&E has 9 different residential rate plans.)  The newest rate plans have PG&E buying extra electricity from residential customers at the current (meaning time of day) retail rate.  Meaning during mid-day if I have one extra kWhr I can sell it to PG&E for $0.50.  Later the same day I can buy that kWhr back for just  $0.12.  The $0.38 difference is goes into my energy credit "bank" so I can buy kWhrs at a later time when I need them.  But I have to pay current price.  Not sure about San Diego, but here in PG&E territory our rate changes 5 times every weekday and 3 times on weekends.  In the summer prices for peak times increase by 40% or $0.12 per kWhr.
      That's not available in San Diego.  There are some people with Solar that are grandfathered in for that for 5 years.  A friend of mine has that. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 07, 2019, 06:39:47 am
      No, I looked at an address in London. It would have been easy for Simon to just show the numbers like you did. Yet I don't quite get why I can't get the low rates you write about in London. As I wrote before: there is no use to cherry pick the highest numbers in a discussion and neither is cherry picking the lowest numbers.

      Go to http://uswitch.com/gas-electricity/ (http://uswitch.com/gas-electricity/)
      • Postal Code: E17 7TA (North London), or SW11 6BZ (Clapham, SW London), or basically anywhere in London or outside of London (B10 9BT for a random B'ham postal code)
      • Electricity only - no gas
      • Pick any supplier
      • Economy 7 meter (this is the day night meter)  - YES
      • Pick the standard plan (there will be cheaper ones too)
      and you always end up with approx (+/-20%) 0.20/day, 0.10/night; just like Simon told you, over and over.
      I'll give it another try later. I've learned not to take what people say for granted without being able to verify for myself.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 07:26:56 am
      No, I looked at an address in London. It would have been easy for Simon to just show the numbers like you did. Yet I don't quite get why I can't get the low rates you write about in London. As I wrote before: there is no use to cherry pick the highest numbers in a discussion and neither is cherry picking the lowest numbers.

      Go to http://uswitch.com/gas-electricity/ (http://uswitch.com/gas-electricity/)
      • Postal Code: E17 7TA (North London), or SW11 6BZ (Clapham, SW London), or basically anywhere in London or outside of London (B10 9BT for a random B'ham postal code)
      • Electricity only - no gas
      • Pick any supplier
      • Economy 7 meter (this is the day night meter)  - YES
      • Pick the standard plan (there will be cheaper ones too)
      and you always end up with approx (+/-20%) 0.20/day, 0.10/night; just like Simon told you, over and over.
      I'll give it another try later. I've learned not to take what people say for granted without being able to verify for myself.

      No you are just stiring shit up. Several of us in the UK now have told you the facts and proven them to you and still you refuse! why would we lie? oh yea, it takes one to know one. You have constantly lied in this thread to support your views and you think every one else does the same. Electricity prices across the UK are broadly all the same. If you go to a large supplier they will keep it the same throughout generally as they are big enough to average it out. The smaller suppliers will likely bias their prices by region based on what the local power station and distribution company charge but the differences are usually just a couple of pence. We have been open and honest that YOU can independently verify these figures.

      Maybe you should concentrate on explaining to us how ICE is more efficient than electric, I'm sure you have some dodgy website you can use as proof!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 07, 2019, 08:13:00 am

      So can you even trade kWhrs?  If you have an extra one can you "loan" it to the San Diego power company until you need it say at night?  Some of PG&E rate plans are like that.  (PG&E has 9 different residential rate plans.)  The newest rate plans have PG&E buying extra electricity from residential customers at the current (meaning time of day) retail rate.  Meaning during mid-day if I have one extra kWhr I can sell it to PG&E for $0.50.  Later the same day I can buy that kWhr back for just  $0.12.  The $0.38 difference is goes into my energy credit "bank" so I can buy kWhrs at a later time when I need them.  But I have to pay current price.  Not sure about San Diego, but here in PG&E territory our rate changes 5 times every weekday and 3 times on weekends.  In the summer prices for peak times increase by 40% or $0.12 per kWhr.


      /quote]

      Your power deals sound so good it makes me wonder how the power cos stay in business!

      Then again, solar setups you pay $25K for we pay a fifth of that.
      You can get 6.6Kw worth of panels with a 5 Kw inverter for $4-6K here all day long.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 07, 2019, 08:35:11 am

      Maybe you should concentrate on explaining to us how ICE is more efficient than electric, I'm sure you have some dodgy website you can use as proof!

      As many times as I too have butted heads with Nico, I have to agree with him, efficiency means nothing and cost of fueling the thing is not the be all and end all either.   It's the overall cost of ownership that counts. Here the car magazines  do that comparison all the time and from the many I have read, it's very often NOT the most fuel efficent that are the cheapest to won and run.

      I could probably make an ICE that is more efficient than an EV by double but if it costs a Million dollars a unit to produce, what's the point?
      Could probably Double the efficiency of EVs too but again, if they are uneconomic to produce, it's  a waste of time.

      There is a LOT more to EV ownership costs than just the price you pay to recharge the things  and while they may be cheaper to run in some places, they are not cheaper to run in ALL places.

      Cost is something blown out of proportion by the EV crowd.
       I could have bought a MUCH cheaper house and paid half of what I did just under 2 years ago or less but I have no desire to live in a $900K shitbox on a pocket handkerchief of land.  I could buy a car much cheaper to run than what my wife drives now but running cost is not an issue for us.  She wants something comfortable, something that suits her to fetch shopping etc, she can get in and drive up the country with plenty of power to pass anything she wants and she likes driving.
      Being happy with what she has is the main factor.

      She doesn't want some matchbox on wheels even though there are plenty that would use half the fuel of the vehicle she has.

      Running cost may be the biggest factor to some people but it's not a big deal to others.  Like my father, always eats when he goes out at the most exy restaurant in town. As he says, I couldn't give shit what it costs, I can afford any meal I want and what I want is one I can enjoy not one I wish I had enjoyed.

      In any case, NO EV will ever be cheaper to run than my big old diesel 2.5 ton 4WD that on a real good run gets 10 L/ 100 km. 14-18 /100 when I'm punting the thing around like a sports car.
      Efficiency is irrelevant, it's still going to be cheaper to run than any EV out there ever will be anywhere in the world. 
        :D

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 08:44:26 am
      Well from what I see most EV's are quoted as 200-300Wh per mile. On that count they are cheap given the actual factual costs of electricity that now you can generate yourself if you want. Of course you have the battery cost and like I said based on my calculations I break even at 7000 mile per year if i pay £70/month on the battery. EV's are more expensive to buy yes, you can also get some real cheap ones second hand here. I bought a 4 year old petrol for £8000, I could have bought a 2 year old EV for £4000. Granted not the latest and with only a 60 mile range but plenty to get me to work now an I see my fuel costs double because of the increasing congestion around here now.

      Oh and since my last check petrol has gone up. Diesels are no longer cheap if you want a clean one. All of the advantages have been wiped out by the added fuel needed to run the cleanup systems and hence the recent scandal.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 07, 2019, 09:02:14 am

      Sorry to be another one to doubt you but I would be amazed if in fact a battery can save and not cost you especially given your power prices.
      Maybe in the UK batteries are subsidized to half the cost of what the rest of the world pays but if you are talking a commercial battery pack not a DIY one, they would have to be exceptionaly cheap to have any worthwhile payback time if at all.

      What sort of EV do you have?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 09:10:05 am

      Sorry to be another one to doubt you but I would be amazed if in fact a battery can save and not cost you especially given your power prices.
      Maybe in the UK batteries are subsidized to half the cost of what the rest of the world pays but if you are talking a commercial battery pack not a DIY one, they would have to be exceptionaly cheap to have any worthwhile payback time if at all.

      What sort of EV do you have?

      I don't have an EV but typically you can lease the battery for around £70 a month. So providing you do the miles it can work out.

      I don't know what you mean by given my power prices. i have already explained (call me a liar if you like) that over night charging can be done for £0.09/KWh. If the average claim of 250Wh/mile is true that makes the mileage energy cost around 2-3p/m. MY CAR costs me 15p/mile in petrol and it's a small car. So clearly if you drive enough the battery price soon does not matter. Call me a liar if you like I am simply doing basic arithmetic on real numbers. An EV does not have a combustion engine full of moving parts rubbing and banging into each other as part of their normal operation and the maitenance on an electric motor will be far lower than a combustion engine. No clutch, no cam belt - I am due a cam belt change, that will cost £500 and i get nothing from that other than i can keep driving. with an EV £500 buys me 7 months of battery lease.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on March 07, 2019, 09:12:58 am
      Maybe you should concentrate on explaining to us how ICE is more efficient than electric

      Easy: Power plants are a smidge more efficient than ICEs, say 50% efficiency, but power grid transmission and distribution losses are about 9% (91% efficiency), and the EVs charge/discharge losses are at least 15% (85% efficiency). That's 0.5*0.91*0.85= 38% efficiency, which is ~= most ICEs nowadays.

      https://duckduckgo.com/?q=power+grid+distribution+losses
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 09:21:13 am
      Maybe you should concentrate on explaining to us how ICE is more efficient than electric

      Easy: Power plants are a smidge more efficient than ICEs, say 50% efficiency, but power grid transmission and distribution losses are about 9% (91% efficiency), and the EVs charge/discharge losses are at least 15% (85% efficiency). That's 0.5*0.91*0.85= 38% efficiency, which is ~= most ICEs nowadays.

      False, power plants are not that inneficient. They convert power 24 hours a day and a 0.1% increase in efficiency will mean thousands more money earnt every hour. My house boiler is 96% efficient and you are telling me that a larger energy conversion system run as a money making process on an industrial scale is halve the efficiency of my little house boiler ? words fail me. If that is the basis of your argument you are greatly mistaken.

      Look if you like you gas guzzling poluter you have my personal permission to keep driving it if that makes you happy in your personal version of the world.

      If you want more information about energy sources in the uk (WARNING FACTS ARE ABOUT TO BE PRESENTED PREPARE YOURSELF) go to gridwatch.co.uk. As you can see a lot of our energy is not made with fossil fuels anymore anyway. I have seen up to 35% solar + wind output. Most times our coal plants do not get used. that site is simply taking the data being pumped out by the UK grid and graphing it for easy reading plus adds some info about the sources.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on March 07, 2019, 09:27:43 am
      Yes some forms of generation are more efficient than others, but not all countries are the same, look:

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_production_from_renewable_sources

      E.g. in the UK renewables are 27.9, but in Saudi Arabia 0%...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 09:30:42 am
      and you 50% efficiency claim on fossil fuel conversion? that was your claim. I said i have seen up to 35% renewable generation that is peak. Yes 27.9% on average for a year sounds right.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 07, 2019, 11:24:25 am


      First of all calm down and stop being overly defensive. I didn't call or imply you were a liar and I will explain what I said in a very logical, straightforward way that shows exactly what I was thinking.... which had nothing to do with you lying.


      I don't have an EV but typically you can lease the battery for around £70 a month.

      How big is the battery?  Thats an important detail.
      Let me work backwards on that a bit and prempt my answer to your lying concern.

      based on teh info you have given I'll take it that your battery is 100%  charged at night. yeah, I realise it may not be fully charged every night but I'll base the answer on the fact it is given an EV could easily consume the storage capacity of any battery bank.

      If you are paying .09 per KWh at night and .18 per day, your saving having the battery is .09 per kwh.
      At 70 quid a month rent, you would have to be storing 777 Kwh a month or 26 Kwh a day at the .09 saving to BREAK EVEN on the cost of the battery. It would in reality be more because there is no way you are putting the same into the battery as it is storing and you are getting out. I don't need to factor that in because the margin is too wide on the negative side to have to worry. I'll keep that up my sleeve to give a " worse than" number.

      Now as I'm assuming this is not a DIY setup, I will say right here and now, your battery is NOT storing 26KWH and therefore its not coming close to repaying it's cost, it's costing you a lot to have it.
      How do I know it's not storing 26KWH a day? Easy. There isn't a commercial battery that does these days. Again unless you have some modulated pack with that sort of capacity which would be highly unlikely, the biggest battery out there atm is a power wally. 13 Kwh usable.


      Quote
      I don't know what you mean by given my power prices.

      Heres what I mean.
      By my and i think most world standards, your power is cheap.  The cheaper your power the less you save on having a battery.  If  you were paying $1 Kwh then it would be easy to recoup your investment.  The less you pay the less you save the less returns you get.

      And that is the sum total of my comment on given your power prices. They are cheap and they make getting a return on a battery investment more difficult.

      / end of implications , thought behind comment.

      Now, as you don't have an EV and may not be using all the capacity you have now, sure as hell you aren't using 25KWh Day unless you are heating electricaly in winter, which your  battery is Highly UNlikley to be storing anyway, you cannot save enough on costs of the power you store to justify the expense of the battery.

      This is pretty much a universal case.
      I have spoken to people all over the world about this.  Power is cheaper in some parts than others but battery prices follow that very closely as well.
      Cheap power, cheaper batteries. More exy power, more exy batteries.  because the MARGIN is very consistent, there are VERY few places and applications where a battery will justify itself. Maybe.

      All the calcs I have run so far are on solar, IE free power. You are the first I have spoken to and looked at with paying for power to recharge the battery.  really irrelevant because the power has a price either way. Either what you save buying or what you loose in FIT's . In this case its the margin between what you pay peak and off peak.  If you were just paying the .9 straight out, in this case the number is conveniently the same so don't matter which way you slice it. If your battery is as I'm guessing, something in the 6-8 Kw range, the thing is COSTING you heaps.

      Would not matter if you had an EV to charge or a steelworks to run, the battery only holds so much and that how much is not enough to repay the cost of having the thing.  That's it.  There are no other calcs or factors other than the inefficiency of charging 2 batteries, the home and the EV one which as I said at the outset, makes the situation WORSE.


      There is lots of complicated maths people bandy about but it's this simple.  battery cost Vs. offset cost of power stored.
      The only additional thing is that you will never use 100% of battery capacity every day due to not being home, on holidays, cloudy weather not allowing full charge ( in other cases) and so on. You can calculate the BEst case scenario which is always detrimental enough and from there the reality you can't calculate is worse.



      Quote
      i have already explained (call me a liar if you like) that over night charging can be done for £0.09/KWh. If the average claim of 250Wh/mile is true that makes the mileage energy cost around 2-3p/m.

      Unfortunately what you are missing is the less power you use in this case the worse the rental detriment on the battery becomes.
      70 quid would buy you 777 Kwh. untill you use 800+ kwh, you'd be better without the thing.
      I would assume there was setup and installation costs with that as well which would go to buying more power depending on how you want to amortize the cost time wise.

      Buying a battery outright is bad enough. Renting is going to be far worse because you will over time be paying even more than the battery could be bought for.


       
      Quote
      MY CAR costs me 15p/mile in petrol and it's a small car.

      If we look at the cost of the battery rental, and cost of fuel, your car could take you 466 Miles a month/ 116 Miles wk  before you were any worse off.
      This is exactly where the price you pay for power is not the be all and end all of it. There are a LOT more costs than just power and I'm sorry to set you off in what will most likely be another indignant outcry but your investment in a battery , especially with the low power prices you enjoy, is a pathetically poor one.

      I don't know where you get the 7000 mile break even number from because there is no possible way to do that going on the numbers you are quoting.  But again, on your own figures, 466 miles a month is 5600 a year which is what your battery RENTAL would have taken you in the IC PLUS, you then have to pay for the power you would use in your EV and offset the cost of petrol in your IC against that. I reckon you'd get at least 8000 miles in the IC for the same cost NOT counting installation of the battery and the extra power you are buying to take into account inefficiency. If your battery is 5 Kwh, you are buying bare minimum 7 to get 5 into your EV.... when you get your EV.

      Quote
      So clearly if you drive enough the battery price soon does not matter.

      No, sorry again, it ALWAYS matter especially when it's a huge step backwards as yours is.
      You can't pretend costs aren't there and dont count them. It all has to be factored in. by the sounds of it, I'sd say the battery matters hugely in your case because  firstly, even if you do fully utilize it it's costing you far more than it saves you, secondly you are highly likley not to be using it to capacity now anyway increasing the cost of having it and 3rdly, when you get an EV you are still likley to be buying extra power anyway and if you are not it just means the low level of usage again makes the ROI worse.

      There is NO upside here, no way this thing is saving you money or worth having.... as much as I'm sure you are going to refute that with complicated and flawed calculations.



      Quote
      An EV does not have a combustion engine full of moving parts rubbing and banging into each other as part of their normal operation and the maintenance on an electric motor will be far lower than a combustion engine.

      The only thing different to an EV and an IC is the power train. Ev's still have shock absorbers, suspension bushing,  tyres and brake pads, wiper blades, Cabin filters, Lubrication of door latches, cables and hinges, need wheel alignments,  OIL changed ( despite the wide spread greenwashed denial of this) and a whole load of other things that are the normal service and maintence items on an IC.
      This idea an IC don't have an engine and gearbox and nothing ever wears out on them is greenwashing at it's finest.  Yes, they need an oil change more often BUT, look at the service list and what you pay for when you do get your car serviced, all the same things I mentioned no matter if it's an EV or IC.


       
      Quote
      No clutch, no cam belt - I am due a cam belt change, that will cost £500 and i get nothing from that other than i can keep driving. with an EV £500 buys me 7 months of battery lease.

      Clutch if you know how to drive will last over 100K Miles.  Cam belt change is 60K + Miles.  500 quid over 60K miles is less than .8 p per mile.
      If you are going to split hairs down to that level and try to tell me they count, sorry, you and I are on differnt levels financially and are talking an accuracy of budgeting I couldn't come near and sure as hell don't want to be worrying about.  You go into costs so much with running an EV but do you budget as tightly for the beers you drink in a year or the times you have take away or what you spend taking the family out for a day or....??
      I sure as hell don't, I have far bettter things to worry about in my life than the the .08P cam belt wear costs me every mile.
      How much do tyres and brake pads cost you per mile.  WHAT is the cost of the things an EV needs?
      I'll bet my backside a set of pads on an EV costs double if not more what they do in your car you have now. I'll also bet that the servicing costs of an EV  will be a lot higher if less frequent than an ev narrowing the gap far closer to what is always made out.

      And just occurred to me being we have different currency's, how the hell is a cam belt change costing you 500 quid? Your money is double mine and if you are paying my equivalent of $1000 for a cam belt change, you are either Driving a Ferrari or you are getting bent over and torn a new one big time.  If you are driving a small car I doubt the engine is anything exotic so I will have to assume you are either getting ripped well and truly on the price or Guilding the lilly.

      Yeah, I do know a little about cars, family business is in the auto game so I am involved and have a good idea of things in the real world.

      Whats the insurance comparison between an EV and a comparable IC? How about parts prices if you break a tail light or need a new wheel strut, door lock motor, windscreen,  wiper motor or any of those other common high demand parts that all cars have?
      Being you are talking about getting a used IC, it's a certainty not a possibility the thing is going to need parts.

      And lets not forget the biggie here, while you are counting cam belt costs that here would be a once in 5 years thing for half the cost you are quoting,  what about the BATTERY replacement cost on an EV?
      Those things don't last forever and they are going to make engine replacement on an IC look cheap.
      ANY IC these days that doesent go 250Km / 15 years on the original engine has been flogged or was a lemon. How long will an EV go? From everything I read you can count on a new battery pack in 7-10 years.  what does that particular 12 gauge shot to the pocket cost as a standalone and per mile basis?  I'm bettering it's going to make your cam belt look like a bargain particularly as the intervals could be pretty close.

      From what I read, EV's are not worth replacing battery packs because by the time they need one they have depriciated so much that it's simply not worth it. I expect that situation will only become stronger as more cars are available on teh market with better range and more features. Who's going to want to replace the pack in a 60 mile range car when maybe a few grand will buy them something 5+ years newer with 3xplus the range and all the advantages every later model has.

      I would suggest when buying a used EV, do your homework thoroughly and tread VERY carefully.

      There is a LOT more to this picture than the cost of fueling and in this case it's not nearly what you make out anyway.

      And just to clarify, i'm not calling you a liar, just mistaken and over looking a lot of things that make your position inaccurate and not what you think it is.


      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 11:38:30 am
      What difference does having a house battery make? that is for the house not a car, if i was generating enough to also fill a car fine but as i said previously for me if i was doing it economy 7 alongside my solar system would be perfect. By day I use my solar and battery, by night I charge the car off the grid at 8-9p/KWh

      other people would have to look at their circumstances as on economy 7 you pay more by day.

      So power cost for a car:

      Petrol 15p/mile
      EV 2.5p/mile.

      I do 8000 miles a year or 670 miles a month, so 670*0.15 = £100 on petrol

      100-70 (battery)= £20
      20/0.025 = 800 miles a month on electric!

      The EV breaks even and i do a low mileage.

      Does the EV need a cam belt change every 60'000 miles? no so 500/60'000 = 0.8p/mile spend it how you will but it is about 1/3 the cost of electric for a mile.

      People doing 10'000+ miles will see the benefits.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 07, 2019, 12:16:22 pm
      Maybe you should concentrate on explaining to us how ICE is more efficient than electric

      Easy: Power plants are a smidge more efficient than ICEs, say 50% efficiency, but power grid transmission and distribution losses are about 9% (91% efficiency), and the EVs charge/discharge losses are at least 15% (85% efficiency). That's 0.5*0.91*0.85= 38% efficiency, which is ~= most ICEs nowadays.

      False, power plants are not that inneficient.

      OH yes they are!!!


      The energy efficiency of a conventional thermal power station, considered salable energy produced as a percent of the heating value of the fuel consumed, is typically 33% to 48%. As with all heat engines, their efficiency is limited, and governed by the laws of thermodynamics.
      Thermal power station - Wikipedia
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_power_station


      And given the inevitable refuting of the source, I also fact checked with several other sites including gubbermint ones which agreed on the lower side of those numbers.
      If you want to disprove that, please feel free to post creditable links that say otherwise.


      Quote
      My house boiler is 96% efficient and you are telling me that a larger energy conversion system run as a money making process on an industrial scale is halve the efficiency of my little house boiler ?

      YEP!  Thats not taking into account the generation and transmission of the power in the first place.
      The scenario of heating a tank and energy transformation of solid matter or other energy conversion into electrical current is a totally different thing. May as well say your domestic water heater gets 32 Mpg


      Quote
      words fail me.
      So do your incorrect beliefs and understandings of a number of things which give you an unrealistic position on different issues.


      Quote
      If that is the basis of your argument you are greatly mistaken.

      No, YOU are the one mistaken as the link I provided and all others clearly show.

      Quote
      Look if you like you gas guzzling poluter you have my personal permission to keep driving it if that makes you happy in your personal version of the world.

      C'mon. We are having a largely rational and so far more or less factual discussion here. Don't throw a childish hissy fit because you don't like what's being said and it does not tie in factually with what you want to believe.

      In any case MY diesel guzzling 2.5 ton behemoth ( oooh, there's that foul " D " word!!) will wipe the floor in the emissions contest with any EV out there as well as being cheaper to run. The fact you are still driving an IC makes your retort even more hypocritical.

      Quote
      If you want more information about energy sources in the uk (WARNING FACTS ARE ABOUT TO BE PRESENTED PREPARE YOURSELF) go to gridwatch.co.uk. As you can see a lot of our energy is not made with fossil fuels anymore anyway. I have seen up to 35% solar + wind output.

      All along YOU have been talking about charging at night for .09p Kwh.  Now I realise you are on the other side of the pond and the planet to me, but I would go out on a limb and hazard a guess that You don't have squat near 35% Solar or wind at night when YOU are proposing doing your charging. Looking at the site you linked, it's fair to say that at night, at least 80% of your power is going to be from FF or nuke power.
      That is a FACT from your own sources  wether you like it or not.


      Quote
      Most times our coal plants do not get used. that site is simply taking the data being pumped out by the UK grid and graphing it for easy reading plus adds some info about the sources.

      Maybe but they are operating now as I see 6% of generation is coming from Biomass... Burning.  Oh the Co2, Oh the humanity!!
      If your wind generation there is as flakey as ours, which I'm sure it is, then there will be plenty of times when the RE input is basicaly zero and you'll be running that EV entirely off Fossil or nuke energy.  Geez, that  reality has to hurt!

      I also see that the solar input is not measured and is a guesimate from a university.  If there is any place you can trust to be greenwashed and hyping up the green figures you can bet your arse it will be a university.

      In any case, the charging  YOU have been proposing would take place at night when unreliables would be at their lowest input of all.
      If you really want to get some green credibility, put 10Kw of solar panels on your roof so you can power your entire needs renewably and feed some  power back to the grid to boot. 

      I have 25Kw and counting on my roof and I am as anti green washed and commercial unreliables  as they come. Makes me laugh how all the save the world types RARELY if ever can even come close to the amount of RE power I have or drive cleaner vehicles that have less impact they go on about.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 12:24:05 pm
      so obviously petrol does not have any "transmission" costs, it magically arrives in your petrol tank. No extraction process, no shipping or piping it ashore, no refinery processes, not transportation across the world, give me a break!

      a sweeping statement from wikepedia to cover many different ways of generating power. Most of our power is CCGT which granted is 60% and over only so you are mostly correct.

      So as we have now switched to efficiency talk how efficient is EV versus ICE ? ICE does not do regenerative breaking for a start!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 07, 2019, 12:47:25 pm
      What difference does having a house battery make? that is for the house not a car, if i was generating enough to also fill a car fine but as i said previously for me if i was doing it economy 7 alongside my solar system would be perfect. By day I use my solar and battery, by night I charge the car off the grid at 8-9p/KWh

      The difference it makes is you are paying for something to save money that's costing you far more than it could ever save!  :-DD

      If you don't intend using it for the car, presumably because it's smaller than i suggested, then your battery is even more of a joke as to you saving money. It's a complete and utter waste of money and the planets resources.

      Again you fail to mention what size it is but as you didn't even attempt to refute one thing I said about it's capacity and inability to off set it's cost, I was obviously spot on with everything I said because you sure as heck wouldn't have missed an opportunity to rub it in my face.
      I been down this road before. It's extremely rare if not impossible for battery's to be a viable investment  anywhere in the world at this time Unless there is some massive subsidy that brings them down to at very least half price.


      Quote

      Does the EV need a cam belt change every 60'000 miles? no so 500/60'000 = 0.8p/mile spend it how you will but it is about 1/3 the cost of electric for a mile.

      Does teh IC need a 2500 quid battery every 10 years if you are lucky?
      Lets just ignore that battery replacement cost in the EV won't we and stick to comparing apples to lettuce.
      Makes the numbers we want to present in the argument look so much better than if we added the EV costs in and did it fairly and came up with an answer we didn't want.  That would be completely unacceptable wouldn't it so best we do all we can to avoid that embarrassment. 

      Quote
      People doing 10'000+ miles will see the benefits.

      Which you don't.  Neither do most people in the UK by the looks of it through a quick google check and by a fair margin.

      The latest reports from the Department of Transport indicate that cars in England drove an average of 7,900 miles per year in 2015, down 15% from 9,200 miles per year in 2002.

      Oh dear, this cheaper to run thing isn't looking good at all for most people where you are after all is it?  Pretty safe to say the trend is continuing so the ROI is getting even worse for the EV's. Bugger!
      That cheaper refueling cost wasn't all it was cracked up to be after all was it?
      Who would have seen that coming??   :-DD

      I can see that you made a better decision with the EV not to get one so far than you did with the battery but how much would you pay for the sort of EV you have in mind? What would it be, how old and how many miles would you expect the sort of thing you are looking for to have traveled when you got it for the price point you are aiming at?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on March 07, 2019, 01:02:38 pm
      Maybe you should concentrate on explaining to us how ICE is more efficient than electric

      Easy: Power plants are a smidge more efficient than ICEs, say 50% efficiency, but power grid transmission and distribution losses are about 9% (91% efficiency), and the EVs charge/discharge losses are at least 15% (85% efficiency). That's 0.5*0.91*0.85= 38% efficiency, which is ~= most ICEs nowadays.

      False, power plants are not that inneficient. They convert power 24 hours a day and a 0.1% increase in efficiency will mean thousands more money earnt every hour. My house boiler is 96% efficient and you are telling me that a larger energy conversion system run as a money making process on an industrial scale is halve the efficiency of my little house boiler ? words fail me. If that is the basis of your argument you are greatly mistaken.


      A boiler in a house is heating water.  Generating electricity is different.  It uses a heat engine.  It's around 45% efficient converting to electricity. 
       
      https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=107&t=3 (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=107&t=3)

      Heat engines are limited by Carnot law.  This applies to ICE and power plants.

      https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee102/node/1942 (https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee102/node/1942)




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 01:03:24 pm
      Well clearly you will just jumble facts together to suit your needs so pointless trying to explain it to you again. I give up. My battery is 10KW, it runs my house and it will pay for itself, rest assured i did my sums. 5000 cycles of 8KWh (80% DOD) = 40'000KWh * 0.18 = £7200, the batteries cost £4000! and electricity will continue to rise. If you want to include the infamous connection fee i pay it gets even better!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 07, 2019, 01:19:15 pm
      so obviously petrol does not have any "transmission" costs, it magically arrives in your petrol tank. No extraction process, no shipping or piping it ashore, no refinery processes, not transportation across the world, give me a break!

      Again you are trying to talk about the MPG your tea kettle gets.
      No one said anything about costs, the discussion point YOU raised was EFFICENCY.
      I don't know what the efficiency of petrol is but  it's irrelevant. It's a fuel in it's own right, it's not a solid material transformed into an electrical form.

      Quote
      a sweeping statement from wikepedia to cover many different ways of generating power. Most of our power is CCGT which granted is 60% and over only so you are mostly correct.

      Yeah, I knew you'd refute that as it is highly inconvinent to the fanatasy you want to push.
      In any case, what do you think natural gas is? Renewable?
      Guess what, it's a fossil fuel too so is no different in the grand scheme of things to oil or coal.  Still releases the dreaded Co2 into the atmosphere.

      Yes, I know, these inconvenient truths are the most upsetting thing a person can be confronted with but try to be brave and admit when you are wrong and not discredit yourself with trying to make any more far fetched excuses or unfortunate retorts.
      It's not so much the right or wrong that affects a persons credibility and standing in the community, it's whether or not they have the round hairy ones to admit they were on the wrong track and to learn something from it to better their knowledge in the future and be more informed.
      Sticking to an incorrect position and trying to defend it when one is clearly in the KA KA up to their eyeballs is not a good look for anyone.
      The problem is once you get in the quicksand the desperate struggle to dig yourself out only leads to rash, poorly thought out statements that make you sink quicker.

      Quote
      So as we have now switched to efficiency talk how efficient is EV versus ICE ? ICE does not do regenerative breaking for a start!

      Switched????

      You were arguing efficiency with others long before I got into pointing out your flawed position and and completely erroneous statements.
      You either need to catch up or go back to where I said efficency was irrelevant because it was running and cost of ownership that mattered.

      If you want to try saving face and going back to that, i'll let someone else take over. you are acting the same as others you berate for their behavior and frankly, you are too easy for me to be bothered playing against. I'm not learning anything, your statements are way too easy to shoot down in flames and clearly as Yoda would say, " The green washing is strong in this one".

      You have said nothing of any credibility, nothing that makes me re evaluate my position or brings up any other perspectives ( other than the exaggeration of you claims so i'm bored now.

      You carry on because I concede, your ability to do that far outweighs my level of interest in further proving your complete and utter lack of knowledge on the subject and Hypocrisy.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 07, 2019, 01:21:56 pm
      When it comes to efficiency you can do a very simple comparison: just compare the CO2 emissions per distance driven. That is a very simple sum to do.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 01:29:47 pm
      When it comes to efficiency you can do a very simple comparison: just compare the CO2 emissions per distance driven. That is a very simple sum to do.

      That is you definition of efficiency? I take it you don't call yourself an engineer? :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 07, 2019, 01:34:13 pm
      When it comes to efficiency you can do a very simple comparison: just compare the CO2 emissions per distance driven. That is a very simple sum to do.

      That is you definition of efficiency? I take it you don't call yourself an engineer? :palm:
      Efficiency is input versus output. CO2 is a direct measure of the amount of energy you have to put in. Distance driven is the output. It cannot get more basic than that and there is no debate possible on what numbers are cherry picked or not.

      What makes an EV inefficient is the long chain between energy source and the wheels. There is a lot more to it to get an EV moving than just an electric motor. Even while each link in the chain is efficient in itself, together you still get a 30% to 40% loss between the generator and the wheels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 01:39:00 pm
      can you really measure all the inputs? don't be silly. I am clearly wasting my time. This is something that with the most scientific study would struggle to come the an answer and your argument is about power station efficiency and yet you ignore the ongoing move to renewables and other methods like nuclear. Keep up or the world will leave you behind. At this stage I think it fair to assume that they are the same particularly if you want to ignore the elephant in the room of ICE petrol in to wiles out. how much power is in 1L of petrol?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 01:42:35 pm
      Oh look, 1L of petrol has 13.3KWh, my car does 10m/L that is 1.3KW per mile, 1300/250 = 5.3 oh dear oh dear.........
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 07, 2019, 02:27:34 pm
      Maybe you should concentrate on explaining to us how ICE is more efficient than electric

      Easy: Power plants are a smidge more efficient than ICEs, say 50% efficiency, but power grid transmission and distribution losses are about 9% (91% efficiency), and the EVs charge/discharge losses are at least 15% (85% efficiency). That's 0.5*0.91*0.85= 38% efficiency, which is ~= most ICEs nowadays.

      https://duckduckgo.com/?q=power+grid+distribution+losses

      That is only when they are running and there is demand.  What happens when demand changes and they are they are using fuel to produce energy and there is no demand?  Messes with their efficiency.  Or what happens when demand exceeds production capabilities?  We have no means of storing electricty and providing immediate electricity to the grid.  This is why in the US we have peaker power generating facilities.  Efficiency blows when you provide real life situations.

      Here in California we have power outages on nice clear sunny days because of solar.  When an unannounced cloud passes over a solar.farm the output decreases enough we can lose power.

      Factor that into your efficiency calculations.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 02:39:05 pm
      We use pumped storage in the UK for peaks. At night I expect the load is pretty stable and that is when you would charge an EV.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 07, 2019, 03:12:08 pm
      Simon thank you for your posts and responses.   You clearly know what you are talking about and have mentioned issues others seems to just ignore.  Some folks in this thread like nctnico think they art engineers by dodging Google searches.  The sad part is people in this thread like nctnico have said their beliefs are more powerful than critical thinking skills.  When one places his beliefs as being far more credible than science and critical thinking skills you don’t have a chance of having an intelligent conversation with them.

      While others may disagree with you, I appreciate your posts and have learned a few thinkgs from them.  Thank you.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on March 07, 2019, 03:19:39 pm
      We use pumped storage in the UK for peaks. At night I expect the load is pretty stable and that is when you would charge an EV.
      Actually, the pumped storage in the UK was built to ride over a sudden failure of a major generating site. That's why it was built with the added cost and complexity to have a very fast turn around from pumping to generating. Storage in other parts of the world has been built primarily for peak mitigation. For example, CLP, one of the power utilities in Hong Kong, has insufficient generating capacity, on purpose. They use their nuclear capacity (actually located in southern China) to pump up a reservoir every night (also located in southern China), and generate from that reservoir during the peak demand each day.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on March 07, 2019, 03:41:59 pm
      and you 50% efficiency claim on fossil fuel conversion? that was your claim. I said i have seen up to 35% renewable generation that is peak. Yes 27.9% on average for a year sounds right.

      That's only about 1/4 of the total that has better generation efficiency, the grid and other losses are the same and still there.

      If the average claim of 250Wh/mile is true

      250Wh/mile = 15.53 kWh/100km which is clearly wrong because:

      1) Tesla says the range of a 75 kWh Model S (*) is 400km, that's 18.75 kWh/100km not 15.53.
      2) You've got to add the charge/discharge losses because to get 18.75 kWh of energy out of the battery you've got to draw off the wall plug at least 18.75/0.85= 22 kWh.

      There's a huge difference between 15 and 22 kWh: 22 is 1.5x as much.

      You can buy a twizy as I've done and halve that figure to slightly below 100 Wh/km, but it's not a real car and won't take you very far away on a charge (75km). Or a tin can like the Leaf or a Zoe but that won't save you too many Wh over the Model S.

      (*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S

      An EV does not have a combustion engine full of moving parts rubbing and banging into each other as part of their normal operation and the maitenance on an electric motor will be far lower than a combustion engine. No clutch, no cam belt - I am due a cam belt change, that will cost £500 and i get nothing from that other than i can keep driving. with an EV £500 buys me 7 months of battery lease.

      All cars have this maintenance:

      Tires
      brake pads
      windshield wipers and fluid
      Cabin air filter
      shock absorbers
      brake fluid every 4..5 years
      Radiator fluid every 4..5 years
      A/C gas leakages
      Gearbox oil every 10 years
      Wheel hubs ball bearings, engine mounts, bushings and driveshafts as needed

      ICE
      clutch 100..200k km
      cam belt 100..200k km
      oil 10..20k km ($50)
      Air and oil filter 10..20k km ($50)

      EV
      Battery every ? km (very expensive)

      ICE does not do regenerative breaking for a start!

      All the hybrids have KERS.

      Most of our power is CCGT which granted is 60% and over only so you are mostly correct.

      In cold weather when you turn on the cabin heater (which is a load of several kW) the efficiency of an ICE increases, but the efficiency of an EV decreases and by very much because the heat has been dumped as losses at the power plant but in the ICE it's dumped inside the cabin where it's needed so not a waste.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on March 07, 2019, 03:54:36 pm
      Oh look, 1L of petrol has 13.3KWh, my car does 10m/L that is 1.3KW per mile, 1300/250 = 5.3 oh dear oh dear.........

      One litre of petrol has 9.5 kWh of energy not 13.3 (*). In another post above I say why I think the 250 Wh/mile figure is wrong, 22kWh/100km is closer to the real thing I believe, and that's 350 Wh/mile. Add the generation and grid losses to the equation and do the math again... and don't turn on the cabin heater of your EV.

      (*) 34.2MJ/litre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 07, 2019, 04:04:41 pm
      We use pumped storage in the UK for peaks. At night I expect the load is pretty stable and that is when you would charge an EV.
      Actually, the pumped storage in the UK was built to ride over a sudden failure of a major generating site. That's why it was built with the added cost and complexity to have a very fast turn around from pumping to generating. Storage in other parts of the world has been built primarily for peak mitigation. For example, CLP, one of the power utilities in Hong Kong, has insufficient generating capacity, on purpose. They use their nuclear capacity (actually located in southern China) to pump up a reservoir every night (also located in southern China), and generate from that reservoir during the peak demand each day.

      NO!  This is NOT the same thing.  Peaker vs. peak rimes are completely different.  Stored hydro is a way of conserving water and supplying electricity when demands are typically high which is typically during the day and on work days.  It takes time to open the values to let more water flow through the gernerators and get that electricty on the grid.  Likewise if demand unexpectedly decreases during the day it takes time for the valves controlling the amount of water flowing through the generators to be closed.

      This can take hours.

      Peaker powerplants are completely different.  They are typically natural gas and use jet engines.  If unexpectedly the demand for electricity is greater at a given moment peaker engines are fired up to cover that unexpected demand.  Takes far less time to fire up a jet engine than open a valve at a dam or generate more steam burning coal.

      As the demand for electricty decreases the peaker engines are shut off.

      If it were not for peaker power generation capabilities power companies would have to always be running there generators at full capacity to cover those unexpected demand.

      And to make this more complicated I live in California which is connected to a power grid that covers many states.  There are several hundred power companies which all get there electricty from the same power generating facilities.  Orders for how much much each power company is going to buy at every minute of every day is placed a day in advance so all of the power generating plant know how much to produce. 

      Solar and wind are unreliable it makes it hard to know just how much power each power plant and there are hundreds of those as well needs to produce to meet the needs of each power company and the millions of customers.

      All it takes to have a large power outage is a large cloud over a large PV solar farm.  Or no wind on a day wind was predicted.  Or an unusually hot day and everyone turning on an air conditioner.

      Batteries would be the solution, but as has been pointed out their cost is prohibitive and there capacity is very small.  The figure is something like all of the batteries in the world would supply the world with enough electricity for 10 minutes.

      This is why we use fossil fuels.  They are abundant, produce a lot of energy for their size and are inexpensive.  Only energy form that’s more energy rich for its size is nuclear. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 05:12:39 pm
      So you think they are the same and EV's are terrible because they are not way better? assume we use your figures.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on March 07, 2019, 05:36:17 pm
      In any case, NO EV will ever be cheaper to run than my big old diesel 2.5 ton 4WD that on a real good run gets 10 L/ 100 km. 14-18 /100 when I'm punting the thing around like a sports car.
      Efficiency is irrelevant, it's still going to be cheaper to run than any EV out there ever will be anywhere in the world. 

      That's like saying my 20 yr old JetA powered 747 is still cheaper to run than an EV; but only because there's isn't such a thing as a 20 yr old electric 747 equivalent.

      When you compare a 10yr old small hatchback (ICE) with a 10yr old small hatchback (EV), the EV is cheaper to run.
      When you compare a new care (ICE) with a similar new car (EV), the EV is cheaper to run.

      Apples to Apples comparisons. (something you and nico seem to avoid at all costs).




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 05:46:48 pm
      They also ignore the 27% of renewable power and the nuclear that are not 48% efficient. Nuclear is out of the equation. Renewables have a very low impact. by the time you are left with the 30% odd of CCGT at 60% not 48% the numbers used are buncum, again!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 07, 2019, 05:54:24 pm
      In any case, NO EV will ever be cheaper to run than my big old diesel 2.5 ton 4WD that on a real good run gets 10 L/ 100 km. 14-18 /100 when I'm punting the thing around like a sports car.
      Efficiency is irrelevant, it's still going to be cheaper to run than any EV out there ever will be anywhere in the world. 

      When you compare a new care (ICE) with a similar new car (EV), the EV is cheaper to run.
      That is only true as long as you can charge at home at a very low electricity rate.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on March 07, 2019, 06:18:01 pm
      So you think they are the same and EV's are terrible because they are not way better? assume we use your figures.

      No.

      I think all the EV fanbois always ignore vital things, I suspect on purpose, but perhaps it's due to some sort of reality distortion field.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 06:21:04 pm
      So you think they are the same and EV's are terrible because they are not way better? assume we use your figures.

      No.

      I think all the EV fanbois always ignore vital things, I suspect on purpose, but perhaps it's due to some sort of reality distortion field.

      the same can be said about you. You have consistently distorted facts or just ignored them. What will you do when we run out of fossil fuel?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on March 07, 2019, 06:42:45 pm
      What will you do when we run out of fossil fuel?

      It's going to be a huge disaster IMO, as in billions of deaths and hunger because we've got no substitute. Look at the chart here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption and tell me how on earth can we replace all that energy (oil+gas+coal) with... what the hell? Lucky me, I won't be here anymore by then. Fossil fuels are the dog's bollocks. Pure concentrated sun juice.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 07, 2019, 06:46:51 pm
      What will you do when we run out of fossil fuel?

      It's going to be a huge disaster IMO, as in billions of deaths and hunger because we've got no substitute. Look at the chart here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption and tell me how on earth can we replace all that energy (oil+gas+coal) with... what the hell? Lucky me, I won't be here anymore by then. Fossil fuels are the dog's bollocks. Pure concentrated sun juice.

      So you admit that we will need an alternative but you oppose the alternatives? The world won't wake up the day after we run out and switch to something else like you admit. As great as fossil fuels are we will have to do without them someday but I don't think you care about that.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on March 07, 2019, 09:05:09 pm
      Look at the chart here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption and tell me how on earth can we replace all that energy (oil+gas+coal) with... what the hell?

      The natural resource consumption numbers are just as amazing ... filling a couple of sections of the deserts the US has with solar panels to satisfy the US power consumption is a mega project, but it's hardly impossible. Storage is the bigger problem, we need a good power to X process.

      If we get it, nuclear will in my opinion not be able to compete. Though filling the country with nuclear plants is also hardly impossible.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 07, 2019, 10:08:23 pm
      In any case, NO EV will ever be cheaper to run than my big old diesel 2.5 ton 4WD that on a real good run gets 10 L/ 100 km. 14-18 /100 when I'm punting the thing around like a sports car.
      Efficiency is irrelevant, it's still going to be cheaper to run than any EV out there ever will be anywhere in the world. 

      That's like saying my 20 yr old JetA powered 747 is still cheaper to run than an EV; but only because there's isn't such a thing as a 20 yr old electric 747 equivalent.

      When you compare a 10yr old small hatchback (ICE) with a 10yr old small hatchback (EV), the EV is cheaper to run.
      When you compare a new care (ICE) with a similar new car (EV), the EV is cheaper to run.

      Apples to Apples comparisons. (something you and nico seem to avoid at all costs).


      HAHAHAHA!

      Your Ignorance and desire to always be right makes a mockery of you yet again.  I Drive an ICE. 24 years old now.
      It has lower emissions and is cheaper to run than any EV you want to compare it to.
      Inescapable Fact.  Live with it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 07, 2019, 10:33:14 pm

      No.

      I think all the EV fanbois always ignore vital things, I suspect on purpose, but perhaps it's due to some sort of reality distortion field.

      When ever you get into a discussion/ argument with the green washed, the one thing you can GAURANTEE is they will Lie, blow things out of proportion, Ignore relevant facts not condusive to supporting their cult Beliefs and twise and distort every fact to make it look like their religion is the holy one.
      Every single time without fail.

      Their desperation to push their cult as perfect and beyond reproach is unfailing and the hypocrisy of accusing others of doing what they do better than anyone else would be laughable were it not so pathetic. Argue with them long enough and you'll be able to use their own figures to illustrate the hypocrisy and flaws in their arguments because rarely can they get their own story straight.

      The inherent need some have to believe in a miracle and have something to place hope in when there is little to be found anywhere else in their lives is a psychological driving factor and along with fear mongering is what the whole green scam is based on.  Pretty much the weak minded who are followers not people whom question and verify thing and think for themselves.

      No matter how many time you show with proof their arguments are flawed and false, they will never accept it and make every excuse to justify their position no matter how ridiculous that is in the face of the fact and evidence presented.

      Thankfully the green washing is starting to turn down and loosing intensity.  I'm sure it will be kept going as long as possible given the money made from it but sloooowly people are starting to wake up. The costs are being realized, the benefits are being seen for how questionable and far fetched they are and the rhetoric of the green cult is being questions and coming up short. Way short.
      People are realising that the green goals are completely unobtainable in a fashion that does not negatively impede the way of life for most people in the 1st world and are in fact a giant step backwards in living standards and our economies.

      I predict there will be a rush to  EV's over the coming few years but once the limitations, real costs and drawbacks become known in the real world, they will taper off in sales severly and run with ICE's and not come near taking over as they are constantly Hyped.

      The green cult do not realise they are their own worst enemies atm.  When people buy EV's and are dissapointed because they were over sold and people realise they are not at all what they were hyped up to be, then the negative accounts will start working against them.
      And they will be working Hard, real hard.

      Change is difficult enough for most people, being disappointed and costing money in the process sets opponents and vocal ones for life who will be only too keen to stop others falling for the same con job and that will go on for 30 years as that's the time it takes for  rumor mills to change.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on March 07, 2019, 11:40:03 pm
      This whole thing is a broken record.  Same insults over and over.  A bunch of children. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on March 08, 2019, 12:36:04 am
      Or an unusually hot day and everyone turning on an air conditioner.
      Or not since hotter days have more sunlight, thereby increasing solar production.
      It's going to be a huge disaster IMO, as in billions of deaths and hunger because we've got no substitute. Look at the chart here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption and tell me how on earth can we replace all that energy (oil+gas+coal) with... what the hell? Lucky me, I won't be here anymore by then. Fossil fuels are the dog's bollocks. Pure concentrated sun juice.
      That's a great argument to reduce or eliminate the use of fossil fuels where practical, to conserve them for use where alternatives are not yet practical. For example, they should have required every new car to get at least 30 MPG highway like a decade ago.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 08, 2019, 01:00:51 am

      No.

      I think all the EV fanbois always ignore vital things, I suspect on purpose, but perhaps it's due to some sort of reality distortion field.

      When ever you get into a discussion/ argument with the green washed, the one thing you can GAURANTEE is they will Lie, blow things out of proportion, Ignore relevant facts not condusive to supporting their cult Beliefs and twise and distort every fact to make it look like their religion is the holy one.
      Every single time without fail.

      Their desperation to push their cult as perfect and beyond reproach is unfailing and the hypocrisy of accusing others of doing what they do better than anyone else would be laughable were it not so pathetic. Argue with them long enough and you'll be able to use their own figures to illustrate the hypocrisy and flaws in their arguments because rarely can they get their own story straight.

      The inherent need some have to believe in a miracle and have something to place hope in when there is little to be found anywhere else in their lives is a psychological driving factor and along with fear mongering is what the whole green scam is based on.  Pretty much the weak minded who are followers not people whom question and verify thing and think for themselves.

      No matter how many time you show with proof their arguments are flawed and false, they will never accept it and make every excuse to justify their position no matter how ridiculous that is in the face of the fact and evidence presented.

      Thankfully the green washing is starting to turn down and loosing intensity.  I'm sure it will be kept going as long as possible given the money made from it but sloooowly people are starting to wake up. The costs are being realized, the benefits are being seen for how questionable and far fetched they are and the rhetoric of the green cult is being questions and coming up short. Way short.
      People are realising that the green goals are completely unobtainable in a fashion that does not negatively impede the way of life for most people in the 1st world and are in fact a giant step backwards in living standards and our economies.

      I predict there will be a rush to  EV's over the coming few years but once the limitations, real costs and drawbacks become known in the real world, they will taper off in sales severly and run with ICE's and not come near taking over as they are constantly Hyped.

      The green cult do not realise they are their own worst enemies atm.  When people buy EV's and are dissapointed because they were over sold and people realise they are not at all what they were hyped up to be, then the negative accounts will start working against them.
      And they will be working Hard, real hard.

      Change is difficult enough for most people, being disappointed and costing money in the process sets opponents and vocal ones for life who will be only too keen to stop others falling for the same con job and that will go on for 30 years as that's the time it takes for  rumor mills to change.

      geroge80  I have a lot of respect for you and think you have made many excellent points in your posts.  I'm going to disagree with you on people being disappointed by EVs.  Have you or do you own one?  I was against EVs as you are until we got one.  As much as I wanted to dislike it, I have to admit it's nice.  EVs are nice to drive as well.  I don't think I will ever buy an ICE car ever again.  Am I buying an EV because it's good for the environment?  Heck no.  I think an EV is no better or worse for the environment than an ICE or diesel.  It's not a mater of economics either.  In fuel/energy the EV might save me maybe $750 per year, but I think it's more like $500.  But I do get a $30-$50 saving on my electricity dues to the lower EV rate.  But that's NOT why I would by an EV.  Reason for liking an EV is because I like that it's quite and most important it's convenient.

      No more having to look for and waste time at gas stations.  With an ICE that's a once a week waste of time.  With an EV I pull into the garage and plug in.  In the morning my car is fully charged and ready to go.

      As for maintenance I guess I'm saving a little.  For my ICE car I only change the only once every other year and that's it.  Oil change is $50, so with an EV I save $25 per year.

      In the states where I live EVs very common.  And the city where I have seems like every fourth of fifth car is an EV.  EVs aren't for everyone, but ask someone who has an EV if they like it.  You'll find 9 out of 10 people who own EVs say they will NEVER buy another ICE. 

      This isn't a green thing or save the Earth thing either.  It's a personal choice like deciding to buy a car with automatic transmission or manual.  ICE or EV it's just a personal preference.

      The other thing no one seems to mention is that cars today are disposable like cell phones and computers.  I think the folks who are driving around in 20+ year old cars are idiots.  Modern cars have many new safety and comfort features one has to ask why someone would something so unsafe.  My second car is a 13 year old car and it has a CD player.  My reason for getting a new car is to get updated technology.  Every time I get in the car I use Google Maps to see what the traffic is like.  Waze to let me know where the police are.  And for entertainment I listen to podcasts.  Cars are all a commodity now and what sets them apart is the technology and the apps.  It's all about the apps.  Apps and convince is why my next car will be an EV.  And like a cell phone or computer in 10 years or so when the batteries aren't doing so just dump the car and get a new one with a "fresh" set of batteries.

      So stop with the greens and save the Earthers are the only ones buying cars.  They are not.  Many people buying EVs are doing it because of they are convenient and the technology in them is better. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on March 08, 2019, 01:08:11 am
      We use pumped storage in the UK for peaks. At night I expect the load is pretty stable and that is when you would charge an EV.
      Actually, the pumped storage in the UK was built to ride over a sudden failure of a major generating site. That's why it was built with the added cost and complexity to have a very fast turn around from pumping to generating. Storage in other parts of the world has been built primarily for peak mitigation. For example, CLP, one of the power utilities in Hong Kong, has insufficient generating capacity, on purpose. They use their nuclear capacity (actually located in southern China) to pump up a reservoir every night (also located in southern China), and generate from that reservoir during the peak demand each day.

      NO!  This is NOT the same thing.  Peaker vs. peak rimes are completely different.  Stored hydro is a way of conserving water and supplying electricity when demands are typically high which is typically during the day and on work days.  It takes time to open the values to let more water flow through the gernerators and get that electricty on the grid.  Likewise if demand unexpectedly decreases during the day it takes time for the valves controlling the amount of water flowing through the generators to be closed.

      This can take hours.

      Peaker powerplants are completely different.  They are typically natural gas and use jet engines.  If unexpectedly the demand for electricity is greater at a given moment peaker engines are fired up to cover that unexpected demand.  Takes far less time to fire up a jet engine than open a valve at a dam or generate more steam burning coal.

      As the demand for electricty decreases the peaker engines are shut off.

      If it were not for peaker power generation capabilities power companies would have to always be running there generators at full capacity to cover those unexpected demand.

      And to make this more complicated I live in California which is connected to a power grid that covers many states.  There are several hundred power companies which all get there electricty from the same power generating facilities.  Orders for how much much each power company is going to buy at every minute of every day is placed a day in advance so all of the power generating plant know how much to produce. 

      Solar and wind are unreliable it makes it hard to know just how much power each power plant and there are hundreds of those as well needs to produce to meet the needs of each power company and the millions of customers.

      All it takes to have a large power outage is a large cloud over a large PV solar farm.  Or no wind on a day wind was predicted.  Or an unusually hot day and everyone turning on an air conditioner.

      Batteries would be the solution, but as has been pointed out their cost is prohibitive and there capacity is very small.  The figure is something like all of the batteries in the world would supply the world with enough electricity for 10 minutes.

      This is why we use fossil fuels.  They are abundant, produce a lot of energy for their size and are inexpensive.  Only energy form that’s more energy rich for its size is nuclear.
      Was this intended as I response to what I said? Its seems completely off topic.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on March 08, 2019, 03:22:27 am
      Or an unusually hot day and everyone turning on an air conditioner.
      Or not since hotter days have more sunlight, thereby increasing solar production.
      It's going to be a huge disaster IMO, as in billions of deaths and hunger because we've got no substitute. Look at the chart here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) and tell me how on earth can we replace all that energy (oil+gas+coal) with... what the hell? Lucky me, I won't be here anymore by then. Fossil fuels are the dog's bollocks. Pure concentrated sun juice.
      That's a great argument to reduce or eliminate the use of fossil fuels where practical, to conserve them for use where alternatives are not yet practical. For example, they should have required every new car to get at least 30 MPG highway like a decade ago.
      The problem is people come home from work near the time the solar production is droping off and turn on the air conditioners and stove etc. 

      This link is an example of power demand in california. 

      http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx (http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx)

      Notice the dip during the day.  And this is in the winter. 

      This is Aug 24, 2018.  Notice the shift to the left.  Day light savings time. 

      http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx (http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx)




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on March 08, 2019, 05:26:31 am
      The problem is people come home from work near the time the solar production is droping off and turn on the air conditioners and stove etc. 
      Dirt cheap thermal storage solves that problem once there's enough solar to cover all demand. All we need is incentive to invest in it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 08, 2019, 05:31:06 am
      The problem is people come home from work near the time the solar production is droping off and turn on the air conditioners and stove etc. 
      Dirt cheap thermal storage solves that problem once there's enough solar to cover all demand. All we need is incentive to invest in it.

      Should we invest before knowing if it will even work?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 07:26:58 am


      geroge80  I have a lot of respect for you and think you have made many excellent points in your posts.  I'm going to disagree with you on people being disappointed by EVs.  Have you or do you own one?  I was against EVs as you are until we got one.  As much as I wanted to dislike it, I have to admit it's nice.  EVs are nice to drive as well.  I don't think I will ever buy an ICE car ever again.  Am I buying an EV because it's good for the environment?  Heck no.  I think an EV is no better or worse for the environment than an ICE or diesel.  It's not a mater of economics either.  In fuel/energy the EV might save me maybe $750 per year, but I think it's more like $500.  But I do get a $30-$50 saving on my electricity dues to the lower EV rate.  But that's NOT why I would by an EV.  Reason for liking an EV is because I like that it's quite and most important it's convenient.

      No more having to look for and waste time at gas stations.  With an ICE that's a once a week waste of time.  With an EV I pull into the garage and plug in.  In the morning my car is fully charged and ready to go.

      As for maintenance I guess I'm saving a little.  For my ICE car I only change the only once every other year and that's it.  Oil change is $50, so with an EV I save $25 per year.

      In the states where I live EVs very common.  And the city where I have seems like every fourth of fifth car is an EV.  EVs aren't for everyone, but ask someone who has an EV if they like it.  You'll find 9 out of 10 people who own EVs say they will NEVER buy another ICE. 

      This isn't a green thing or save the Earth thing either.  It's a personal choice like deciding to buy a car with automatic transmission or manual.  ICE or EV it's just a personal preference.

      The other thing no one seems to mention is that cars today are disposable like cell phones and computers.  I think the folks who are driving around in 20+ year old cars are idiots.  Modern cars have many new safety and comfort features one has to ask why someone would something so unsafe.  My second car is a 13 year old car and it has a CD player.  My reason for getting a new car is to get updated technology.  Every time I get in the car I use Google Maps to see what the traffic is like.  Waze to let me know where the police are.  And for entertainment I listen to podcasts.  Cars are all a commodity now and what sets them apart is the technology and the apps.  It's all about the apps.  Apps and convince is why my next car will be an EV.  And like a cell phone or computer in 10 years or so when the batteries aren't doing so just dump the car and get a new one with a "fresh" set of batteries.

      So stop with the greens and save the Earthers are the only ones buying cars.  They are not.  Many people buying EVs are doing it because of they are convenient and the technology in them is better. 



      Thank you! indeed my point also. Even if EV's are same as ICE I would get an EV. And all these stupid petrol heads that mod their cars to get extra torque bla bla bla have to ignore the fact that an EV is a dream in that it has maximum torque from standstill and you average EV is equivalent to a high end ICE - poor suckers. Sadly I do not have a drive so can't charge one or I'd buy a dirt cheap second hand one just to run around in and go to work.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 08, 2019, 08:30:36 am
      In the San Francisco Bay Area there are a lot of Used EVs on the market.  A fist generation Volt can be purchased for around $10,000.  I know of some early EV car buyers who are their third EV.

      Not sure if you have looked at a Tesla, but they are defiantly the leaders in Technology.  With all cars looking alike nowadays the thing that sets cars apart is the tech and the apps.  The fact that it is a car is secondary.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on March 08, 2019, 08:57:49 am
      In the San Francisco Bay Area there are a lot of Used EVs on the market.  A fist generation Volt can be purchased for around $10,000.  I know of some early EV car buyers who are their third EV.

      As in Europe too:
      https://www.autoscout24.de/lst/opel/ampera?sort=price&desc=0 (https://www.autoscout24.de/lst/opel/ampera?sort=price&desc=0)

      Nobody wants them because parts and repair are expensive and difficult.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 09:06:55 am
      no people are moving to the newer cars with more features and range and the old EV depreciate fast. If i could afford it I would buy the latest EV as it would be a good investment and replace my ICE car but I do not have the money, I can't even afford a new ICE car. But as going to work is such a pain because of the traffic jams I would happily drop £4K on a used EV with 60 miles range as i would use it non stop and only need my ICE car for long journeys like holidays.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 08, 2019, 09:45:19 am
      Let me respond to the last comment first to put the others in perspective:




      So stop with the greens and save the Earthers are the only ones buying cars.  They are not.

      I agree.
      They are the only ones trying to shove them down everyones throats and exaggerate and plain lie about the thing to make them sound better than they actually are.  That's what I get annoyed about, the constant and deceitful peddling of the green bias.

      Look at the last few pages of this thread, the EV/ green washed have to convince everyone they are cheaper to run, more efficient... Who give a shit? Not me or you, only the green washed.  We have shown multiple  untruths the EVangalists have pushed but still they insist they have to be superior.
      They parrot green mantra and don't know qa thing about cars to know what they are saying is BS.

      Not a lot of people care about efficiency and cost to run down to a few cents per mile here or there especially. More people buy cars on the way they look, how many cup holders, the quality of the sound system and the colour than anything else.   

      Quote
      I'm going to disagree with you on people being disappointed by EVs.

      That's fair. It was an opinion not a fact

      Quote
      Have you or do you own one?  I was against EVs as you are until we got one.

      No, I don't own one and until they become more ICE like they would not suit my preferences and what I look for in a vehicle. I have driven 2, one for over a week.  I did not dislike it but as I have already said, I found it no smoother than an ice due to the road surfaces although for a little car it did go better than I expected.

      Quote
        It's not a mater of economics either.  In fuel/energy the EV might save me maybe $750 per year, but I think it's more like $500.  But I do get a $30-$50 saving on my electricity dues to the lower EV rate.  But that's NOT why I would by an EV.  Reason for liking an EV is because I like that it's quite and most important it's convenient.

      Now this I can respect and admire.
      Not trying to shove it down anyones throats they are so superior or something they are not.  Honest opinion and assessment that would endear me tot eh things a lot more than someone constantly trying to talk them up with rubbish I can prove is wrong or exceptionally unlikely.

      Quote
      No more having to look for and waste time at gas stations.  With an ICE that's a once a week waste of time.  With an EV I pull into the garage and plug in.  In the morning my car is fully charged and ready to go.

      Fair enough but you are talking to someone that's made their own fuel for 16 years so while I only visit servos for mower and garden equipment fuel, Fueling is not an issue to me.
      It brings something to mind again I have considered with EV's though, and that is how women will take them. 
      Most women I know HATE putting fuel in a car and will run them on vapor and know exactly how far they can go with the fuel light glaring at them before the things stop.  I wonder if they will be more comfortable plugging the things in or this too will be something to be avoided at all costs?
      Plugging in SHOULD be quicker and easier but if it will be more accepted is something to wait and see.

      I think most other aspects of EV's women will love.  If I was marketing one, I'd be going back to the classic Ogilvy ad format and headlining a picture of the car with the headline, " You Never have to lift the bonnet OR go to a servo ever again".  I reckon that one header would have them walking out the door.

      [/quote] EVs aren't for everyone, [/quote]

      Said no greenwashed cult pushing deciple ever....  but it's nice to hear someone state the Obvious when it is rarely otherwise admitted.

      Quote
      The other thing no one seems to mention is that cars today are disposable like cell phones and computers. 

      True and that is a valid point but I was still suggest the mentality when buying a major investment like a vehicle IS to think of the thing in either long term ownership like 10 years and / or resale value particularly those that like to turn their vehicles over ever 4-5 years.
      I Fully believe the NEW EV you buy today and the next 5 years or so will Plummet in resale value as the avalanche of now models come out over that time and manufacturers will bust a gut like no other time to establish market share and brand leadership.

      It gives for the opportunity for the  underdogs and new players to achieve sales and revenues they have never been able to obtain before. I have seen it in other industries.  One brand dominated, the digital age came along, the underdog went all out, established leadership and they will have that forever untill some other tech breakthrough comes along which won't be for decades most likley.

      The new models will make massive advances and what seems great today will be looked at with disdain in a few short years.


       [/uote] I think the folks who are driving around in 20+ year old cars are idiots.[/quote]

      Well seeing my car is 24 years old, meet an idiot. Several people at least here will Vouch for me in that respect I'm sure.  ;D

      [/quote]  It's all about the apps.[/quote]

      Ohh boy. You REALLY lost me on that one.  I do things in my game with technology people tell me all the time can't be done even when I show it to them.  As for apps......  >:D

      On the technology,  I drive a 2017 Merc GLA250 regularly. More tech than should be in a car IMHO.
      I am very UNcomfortable in the thing, i am very comfortable in my 24 yo truck. Wife loves the merc which is great and she can drive it all she wants.
       I haven't got a clue what it costs per mile in fuel, couldn't care any less if I tried. I know it's real good on fuel but servicing costs.... look out!
      Truck Drinks like a fish, costs nothing to run and precious little to maintain. I change the oil 4 times a year, bout a $60 exercise as it takes a LOT of oil and 2 filters aand is a relaxing 15 Min job. I spend another relaxing 2-3 hours on it every year between Xmas and new year  doing the other things like diff oils, changing fuel lines and other yearly things.

      I'm not saying this makes it better than an EV, just saying that a lot of the EV hype is not relative to me because I enjoy doing it.
        The Merc would have to be a better car in every way than the truck, but not for me and not for everyone else either. it simply does not suit my personal preferences any more than an EV would. YET. In  10 years time, I might love the things but I need a practical car. Not many people do i'll admit bet that is what -I- want.

      I think technology has gone too far in cars. it's main purpose is to make the things dealer dependent so your choice of repairers is non existant. Only the stealership has the magic box to diagnose whats wrong and the only ones to have the parts to fix it.
      What the monopoly and price gouging will be in a few years with teh tech built into EV's I can only imagine.

      And to spell it out again to those who will spin doctor what I have said ( and anything I say)  I'm not against EV's I'm getting to the point of being Violently against the constant Bullshit and insult to me intelligence the Green cult pushers never let up with.

      I think there are going to be HUGE problems with electric transport, none of which I do not believe can be over come but I certainly believe will make any vehicle ownership MUCH more expensive for everyone and have serious social and environmental implications.
      I don't believe for a second it will be the happy rainbows and unicon farts transition that they are endlessly prescribed to have.

      There will be a LOT of hiccups along the way and I believe in the big picture they  will be no better and the planet will be no better off for having them.

      There are a whole lot of issues out there I don't care for and don't care about what people do, as long as they don't try to rub my face in it all the damn time and convert me to their religion using endless Bullshit, they can do what they want and I'll do the same. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 09:55:41 am
      I'm not going to read yet another rant full of exaggeration and lies. Fact is we do need to reduce our emmissions and EV's done right will be more efficient. i too was against them at the start because we did not have efficient power generation but that is changing. You cannot deny that an EV is more efficient. The only downside is where does the power come from. Well that is changing.

      To address another lie about average mileage in the UK, sure on average people do not do many miles but plenty do over 100 miles a day. I am sitting opposite one now, he has a 150m round trip to work.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 10:20:43 am
      I'm not going to read yet another rant full of exaggeration and lies. Fact is we do need to reduce our emmissions and EV's done right will be more efficient.
      Replace efficient with effective and you are demonstratebly wrong in many parts of the world because the electricity generation produces a lot of CO2. Just compare carbon emissions and you'll have your answer. EVs don't save as much CO2 as they would like us to believe. In China for example the net effect of an EV is negative compared to about any ICE. In Europe an efficient hybrid ICE (Toyota Prius for example which does better than 20km/l in real driving conditions) can beat an EV in most countries. In many countries an EV can be beaten by a reasonably efficient ICE.

      (https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S1361920916307933-fx1_lrg.jpg)
      From: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920916307933 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920916307933) (writtin in October 2018 so fairly recent)

      The Dutch government is spending over 700 million euros on tax incentives for EVs. That comes down to 1700 euro per metric ton of CO2. This while the emission rights for one ton of CO2 cost somewhere in the ballpark of 20 euro. What also shouldn't be ignored is that in denser populated areas (no, not city centers but suburbs) people can't charge their EVs at home because they don't have a driveway and even if people have a drive way it will only fit one car. However public charging is going to be expensive which makes EVs unaffordable for most people. So the working man is paying to get technology mainstream which they never will be able to afford. The Dutch politicians are starting to see the light and already put a cap on tax incentives for EVs. The Netherlands is a relatively wealthy country. How are they going to switch to EVs in lesser developed countries? They won't. Even Italy which is the third economy of the EU has no chargin infrastructure to speak of. EVs are hyped to be the solution to CO2 emissions but in reality they won't have much effect at all.

      There are other solutions in the making like 3rd generation bio-fuels and hydrogen which don't have the issues EVs have because the cost of the infrastructure is much lower and the cars work like we are used to. No long waits for charging, no messing with cables, no range issues and no looking for charging stations. You even admit this yourself: an EV isn't a replacement for the car you have because you won't use it to go on a holiday.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 10:39:12 am
      Sorry i make a statement and you tell me that if i change it i would be wrong. Err yea? is this all you have to be right now by putting words in peoples mouths? but then previously you have told me that statements I made agreeing with you were disagreeing with you because you don't care about any truth you just lie.

      I already told you, based on YOUR figure of over 27% renewable generation and the fact that nuclear is also supposed to be low emmissions what is left at 60% not your 48% is a small portion of the total generation. So you still need to get your head around that before you tell me about any more graphs you found online
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 10:50:12 am
      Efficiency is meaningless when it comes to CO2 reduction. What counts is input versus output. Electricity from fossil fuels isn't going away in the next decade so the effectiveness of EVs is next to nothing while ICEs keep getting more efficient due to better hybrid systems and more fossil fuel get replaced with bio-fuel. In a sense EVs will continue to lag behind.

      Soon new cars sold in the EU may not produce more than 90 grams/CO2 per km on average. The car manufacturers have three options: make EVs, make hydrogen cars or make their ICE cars more efficient. What do you think will happen? I'm quite sure they won't be able to sell enough EVs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 10:55:36 am
      Oh so the world will be saved by bio fuels? are you the one who gets to decide who lives and who we shoot because we need the land that makes their food for bio fuels? We don't have the land for bio fuels and when they did start to do it food prices rose over competition about who got tho crop, mouths or engines.

      The UK is already supplied by less that 50% fossil fuel electricity generation so I don't know why you think it's here to stay. We are building another nuclear plant (god help us) and coal is no longer used. We only use coal when renewables drop off. Again this government data is on gridwatch.co.uk. As always you pedal false facts and exagerate.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 11:10:05 am
      Oh so the world will be saved by bio fuels? are you the one who gets to decide who lives and who we shoot because we need the land that makes their food for bio fuels?
      Read about 3rd generation bio-fuels first before making outdated comments. These are close to going full production. Instead of growing crops specific for fuel production the 3rd generation bio-fuels are made from the parts of the plants that are not edible. This means that fuel and food production go hand in hand. The EU is also looking at this; there are bans in the making on bio-fuels made from palm oil. These bans will come in effect in the next 2 years IIRC.

      So far bio-fuels have been saving a lot more CO2 than EVs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on March 08, 2019, 11:20:22 am
      The bans are palm oil specific, they'll just switch to some other oil crop.

      Nothing scalable we have now or in the near future will approach arable land yields or economic efficiency for biofuel, not by an order of magnitude. Yes, farm waste can supply a tiny percentage of what is now supplied by palm oil relatively cheaply, but for the rest we have no alternative but growing crops on arable lands in competition with food crops and forests.

      Unless there is some huge technological advance the world will just have to keep pretending and lying that biofuels aren't destroying nature far faster than fossil fuel.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 11:33:03 am
      The bans are palm oil specific, they'll just switch to some other oil crop.

      Nothing scalable we have now or in the near future will approach arable land yields or economic efficiency for biofuel, not by an order of magnitude.
      That is not true. Our 'own' DSM is one of the companies involved in getting the 3rd generation bio-fuels going and have industrial scale factories up&running. They are at or very near building more factories. Read this article to get up-to-date with the actual state of next generation bio-fuels: http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years (http://www.ethanolproducer.com/articles/15344/zero-to-10-million-in-5-years). The huge technological advance you write about has been made.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on March 08, 2019, 12:18:00 pm
      Yes, farm waste can supply a tiny percentage of what is now supplied by palm oil relatively cheaply, but for the rest we have no alternative but growing crops on arable lands in competition with food crops and forests.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 12:43:26 pm
      Yes, farm waste can supply a tiny percentage of what is now supplied by palm oil relatively cheaply, but for the rest we have no alternative but growing crops on arable lands in competition with food crops and forests.
      You are misunderstanding. I'm not talking about cow & pig sh*t. From many crops we grow (for example: weat, soy, corn, rice, potatoes, etc) we only eat a small part. This isn't very efficient because you have to grow a relatively large plant of which you only use a small part. Making fuel from the part that doesn't get eaten is just a bonus. Everyone has got to eat so food needs to be grown one way or another. And the potential is huge. I did some crude back-of-the-envelope calculations on POET-DSM's conversion rate numbers and you can almost replace fossil fuels entirely with 3rd generation bio-fuels without needing extra land to grow crops. The EPA estimates the US ethanol production can be doubled just because of the 3rd generation bio-fuels (this is billions of US gallons) without needing extra land. An added bonus is that farmers will have more income from growing the same amount of plants. This is good because agriculture will need to switch to (likely) more expensive fertilizer which isn't made from fossil fuels. Please read more about it because these 3rd generation bio-fuels hold the key to solving multiple problems in one go. In my opinion it is a very elegant and ultimately low-tech solution (brew beer from plants and distill it).
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on March 08, 2019, 02:08:44 pm
      Should we invest before knowing if it will even work?
      Why wouldn't it work? It's extremely simple technology with little to go wrong.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFnSFWx13mo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFnSFWx13mo)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on March 08, 2019, 02:29:20 pm
      According to this graph electricity is even more expensive in the UK compared to the Netherlands:
      <snip>
      From: http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/ (http://euanmearns.com/energy-prices-in-europe/)
      That website looks like a pro-oil blog, or at least not particularly reliable, so I wouldn't trust that graph.
      It is a random pick from Google which at least had some recent data. There are probably other (even more recent) graphs out there but I doubt they will show something different.
      If your standard is a random pick from the internet you can find a graph that proves anything you want. Even if something is technically correct it can still be just as misleading as a lie. (It might be the truth, noting but the truth, but not quite the whole truth).
      Ofcourse I check if there is a valid source, the data is consistent with other sources and the data is recent. The graph I linked to earlier met all those criteria. That should go without saying. There is no use to show & link to numbers which cannot be backed up with solid statistics. Again, feel free to contest the validity of the data with another source. I'm very confident it will say the same because the graph is consistent with other data (in this case electricity prices across Europe) I have seen elsewhere. It is a random pick in a sense that it depends on what Google decides to put in the first 100 results when looking for a graph.
      Yes, that should go without saying. But when I check where the graph comes from to see if I can trust it all I see is that it is from some blog. You might know it is correct (and it very well might be), but others likely do not know that, and have to rely on the authority of the source to judge the correctness.

      Why not link directly to the actual source, makes it much easier to tell if it is legit or not:
      https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/... (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/580186/QEP_Q316.pdf)
      Not that we should blindly trust anything that the governments are putting out, but it is far more reliable than some random blog post which might just be plain advertising.

      Anyway, couldn't help to notice that (as they note in the blog post):
      "High nuclear countries France, Sweden and Finland have among the lowest industrial and domestic electricity prices."
      So much for nuclear power being too expensive...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Marco on March 08, 2019, 02:46:39 pm
      I did some crude back-of-the-envelope calculations on POET-DSM's conversion rate numbers and you can almost replace fossil fuels entirely with 3rd generation bio-fuels without needing extra land to grow crops.

      That's 70 gallons per ton (presumably of dry weight). Here's a paper (http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.475.1500&rep=rep1&type=pdf) which did the numbers on the potential for bioethanol with a yield in the range of 288–447l per ton, which is in the same range. Their envelope showed a total of 64 GL, which is an order of magnitude less than even plain gasoline usage in the US ... let alone the rest of fossil fuel consumption.

      On a dry weight and energy basis we actually consume a pretty substantial part of the plant. Starch, protein and oil are a lot more energy dense than water.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 03:20:12 pm
      This paper (from 2003) claims a percentage of 32%. With the efficient ICE hybrids available nowadays this number can be much higher. It has to come from both sides: reducing fuel consumption on one hand and switching to renewables on the other.
      For stationary electricity generation nuclear is a much better option.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on March 08, 2019, 03:43:51 pm
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE_PZQ13YTY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE_PZQ13YTY)

      All the mAh/g and Wh/kg figures in the video are wrong...
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 06:28:49 pm

      Anyway, couldn't help to notice that (as they note in the blog post):
      "High nuclear countries France, Sweden and Finland have among the lowest industrial and domestic electricity prices."
      So much for nuclear power being too expensive...

      The new plant they are building here is promised a higher wholesale price than what is paid now. The project is late, will be late and the price is constantly increasing. Apparently renewables would be half the price so money left for storage, that was before they anounced the price was going up.

      In principle nuclear looks good, the problem i have with nuclear is people. People in power are usually ignorant of scientific and engineering matters and they always want to make more money. That is a recipe for disaster. The disposal of the waste is also a problem as the government has to get involved with planning permissions and no government wants to upset voters so the can is kicked down the road.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 06:30:08 pm
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE_PZQ13YTY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DE_PZQ13YTY)

      All the mAh/g and Wh/kg figures in the video are wrong...

      prove it! you are not a reliable source, back you statements up or don't post!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 08, 2019, 06:32:04 pm
      I'm not going to read yet another rant full of exaggeration and lies.

      It's not the exaggeration and lies you are worried about, I have demonstrated you have told more than enough of those yourself.

      What worries and upsets you and the rest of the Green Koolaide Drinking cult is Facts and the truth.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 06:41:38 pm

      Anyway, couldn't help to notice that (as they note in the blog post):
      "High nuclear countries France, Sweden and Finland have among the lowest industrial and domestic electricity prices."
      So much for nuclear power being too expensive...
      The new plant they are building here is promised a higher wholesale price than what is paid now. The project is late, will be late and the price is constantly increasing. Apparently renewables would be half the price so money left for storage, that was before they anounced the price was going up.
      The increased price of the Hinkley plant is due to pure stupidity of the civil servants in the UK dealing with EDF. Half of the price is interest at an insane rate. And renewables like sun & wind aren't very cheap if you include storage. Electricity from a wind turbine costs around 4 eurocents to generate. Storing the electricity in a battery increases the price per kWh at least 5 to 20 times.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 06:42:49 pm
      i don't have a problem with the truth, and i don't right extensive posts that are full of lies and twist what people say neither will I read such ramblings, I have better things to do. I am happy to be corrected. Even when i have said that i accept what one of your crowd say the post is quoted saying "see told you you would not beleive me" when i say no such thing.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 06:46:35 pm

       Electricity from a wind turbine costs around 4 eurocents to generate. Storing the electricity in a battery increases the price per kWh at least 5 to 20 times.

      Bullshit!

      i already gave you my battery costs and told you that at 14p/KWh my battery breaks even. 14/4 = 3.5, no 20 times, you are a proven liar, and i am talking about a home installed system, not an industrial scale system. How much was the one tesla installed in Australia?

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 08, 2019, 06:56:16 pm
      How representative in statistics is n=1 ?
      IMO you really need to lookup the average numbers to be able to have a decent discussion.
      Also the figures could vary wildly between countries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 07:00:40 pm

       Electricity from a wind turbine costs around 4 eurocents to generate. Storing the electricity in a battery increases the price per kWh at least 5 to 20 times.

      i already gave you my battery costs and told you that at 14p/KWh my battery breaks even. 14/4 = 3.5, no 20 times, you are a proven liar, and i am talking about a home installed system, not an industrial scale system. How much was the one tesla installed in Australia?
      I saw the numbers you quoted earlier but I'm finding your 5000 cycle lifetime very optimistic especially given the price. I'm wondering what cells your battery is using and what kind of BMS. BTW one of my customers is a high-end Li-ion battery pack manufacturer so I'm not oblivious to what is available and what is not. The Tesla powerwall sits at 30 eurocent per kWh when calculating for 2000 cycles.

      But perhaps you should refrain from the name calling. It must be a real joy working with you at work if every question they ask you results in a Gille de la tourette attaque from your side...  :palm:
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 07:00:56 pm
      i can't see it being 20 times, he made the statement with a sample on n=0! i at least have some experience. and actually it was 12p/KWh that made my system break even, when it went to 14p i made £500! My system was at the time 7.2KWh, that is a tiny capacity for a 3.7KW inverter, no matter how many batteries I have the battery management system and the inverter are a constant so the more batteries there are the less it is so the figure for me is 3 or less, I can't beleive 20 times, 5 maybe for an incompetent beurocrat but 20 times is a pure lie. He made the statement, he can back it up!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 07:01:56 pm

       Electricity from a wind turbine costs around 4 eurocents to generate. Storing the electricity in a battery increases the price per kWh at least 5 to 20 times.

      Bullshit!

      i already gave you my battery costs and told you that at 14p/KWh my battery breaks even. 14/4 = 3.5, no 20 times, you are a proven liar, and i am talking about a home installed system, not an industrial scale system. How much was the one tesla installed in Australia?
      I saw the numbers you quoted earlier but I'm finding your 5000 cycle lifetime very optimistic especially given the price. I'm wondering what cells your battery is using and what kind of BMS. BTW one of my customers is a high-end Li-ion battery pack manufacturer so I'm not oblivious to what is available and what is not. The Tesla powerwall sits at 30 eurocent per kWh when calculating for 2000 cycles.

      But perhaps you should refrain from the name calling. It must be a real joy working with you at work...  :palm:

      And the capacity of the power wall is?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 08, 2019, 07:03:08 pm

      In principle nuclear looks good, the problem i have with nuclear is people. People in power are usually ignorant of scientific and engineering matters and they always want to make more money. That is a recipe for disaster. The disposal of the waste is also a problem as the government has to get involved with planning permissions and no government wants to upset voters so the can is kicked down the road.

      On this We FULLY agree.

      Nuke should be banned the world over.  May as well give kids a can of petrol and a box of matches to go play with in their bedrooms.

      The minute you bring up accidents with the pro nuke crowd the first defense is " Oh but with the new reactors they can't have the problems the old ones did".
      Great, but did you shut down all the old reactors that you know DO have a design Flaw?  No. What happens is they do a few bandaid patchups that still leave the throbbing wound underneath and license the things for another 20 years beyond their  design life.

      People go on about the emissions of coal and oil yet these things generate the most powerful, lethal, long lasting poisons known to man and everything on the planet  that there is NO solution for Disposal and they have the Audacity to call the things clean!

      Even the flawed Tech in the things is not the greatest worry. The biggest danger is in the morons operating the things, Humans.
      All the accidents so far both known and not so well known were caused by Human error.  Cost and corner cutting, failure to adhere to maintence schedules and procedures, wanting to make thing look better than they really were or impress higher ups or just plain ignorance in people thinking they knew better than what they did.  OF course so many of the things are known and recognised just to have been constructed in completely unsuitable locations that might make them cheaper to operate but are Highly Vulnerable to seismic activity, Flooding and other acts of nature that cannot be defended against.

      And then after all this " Clean" power you have unimaginably dangerous Shit going out the back door or worst still. be stockpiled and no one knows WTF they are going to do to get rid of it.   OH yeah, the other great  nuke Story, In future these other Reactors that have been talked about for 30 years but still haven't been built will only produce rainbows and sunshine out the back end and all the unimaginably dangerous crap thats in leaking drums now and was dropped in the ocean will also be processed into more fresh air and clean water.

      Yeah, my arse.

      Coal, unreliables, oil or Burning puppies is better than the moronic risk of any type of Nuke generation.
      NOTHING has the potential to wipe out and change life on earth as we know it than each and every Reactor out there.
      That alone makes them the most idiotic choice for power generation that could ever be conceived.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 07:04:16 pm
      IIRC 13kWh but you can look that up on Tesla's website. Don't forget to add the extra costs for the connection box.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 07:08:58 pm
      and how much do they cost, cmon stop short changing us, you want to make a point make it. i know batteries are borderline with break even but at the end of the day stuff costs what it will cost and in this country we have absolute certainty that our electricity will go up because it just does. Our national regulator just lifted the cap on prices and they go up every year, my battery system just gets more and more valuable.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 07:11:45 pm
      Actually I've posted all the calculations and sources a few pages back already.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 07:14:02 pm
      Actually I've posted all the calculations and sources a few pages back already.

      Yea where you said that the batteries loose 15% in charge discharge, the website say's >90% which is about what mine do. i got a quote and it was £10'000 but this is tesla. I bout a solax system for £4000 and it now stands a 9.6KW
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 07:18:29 pm
      Actually I've posted all the calculations and sources a few pages back already.

      they state 10 year warranty, if it is only 2000 cycles (nothing on their website) it will hardly last 10 years, I know they are often optimistic but they are no fools, 10 years is more like 5000. at 5000 cycles and 13.5KW (not 13!) and a price of £10'000 that is unher 20p/KWh, 20/4 = 5. Where do you get battery storage on an industrial scale costing 4x20 = 80p/KWh? i am still waiting for you to back that up.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 07:25:38 pm
      Actually I've posted all the calculations and sources a few pages back already.

      they state 10 year warranty, if it is only 2000 cycles (nothing on their website) it will hardly last 10 years, I know they are often optimistic but they are no fools, 10 years is more like 5000. at 5000 cycles and 13.5KW (not 13!) and a price of £10'000 that is unher 20p/KWh, 20/4 = 5. Where do you get battery storage on an industrial scale costing 4x20 = 80p/KWh? i am still waiting for you to back that up.
      The report I linked to earlier has a clear overview of electricity storage costs of what is actually installed in the US:
      https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/batterystorage/pdf/battery_storage.pdf (https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/electricity/batterystorage/pdf/battery_storage.pdf)
      As you can see the costs vary wildly.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 08, 2019, 07:29:01 pm

      i already gave you my battery costs and told you that at 14p/KWh my battery breaks even.

      And I showed with Figures you could and did not even attempt to challenge with your exaggeration and lies that your battery COST  you money but you stick your fingers in your ears and start yelling Na na na like a spoilt kid and try to convince us of more fantasy and make believe.

      You want to piss money up the wall deluding yourself you are saving money or the environment, Go right ahead. Probably the reason you can't afford to buy a decent second hand EV you defend with your Cult like zealotness.
      Do what you want but don't try and convince me of YOUR bullshit, Lies and exaggeration because I have done more homework and research on this than would allow you to ever get away with such Rubbish and Pipe dreams. 

      I calculated your battery would have to store 26KWH a day to break even and said there is no way you have a battery that big even before you admitted it was only 10 Kwh nameplate with 8 useable. Even by your own fantasy, your 5000 Cycles is over 13 years payback time AT Full capacity which will never happen. You'd need 15 years bare minimum and by that time the degradation in your pack will mean the actualy useable capacity is down to 6 Kwh or less meaning just the PAYBACK, not the profit time is probably blowing out closer to 18 years or worse.  Same as every other battery out there and yours is not different except in some deluded imagination.

      I could do the maths again but you would only deny the numbers because they would show you are the one bullshiting yourself.
      Carry on saving all this money that exists only in your head but dont try and convince others not high on the green Koolaide you are doing anything but undermining the financial  position of yourself and that of your family.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 08, 2019, 07:33:42 pm
      This paper (from 2003) claims a percentage of 32%. With the efficient ICE hybrids available nowadays this number can be much higher. It has to come from both sides: reducing fuel consumption on one hand and switching to renewables on the other.
      For stationary electricity generation nuclear is a much better option.

      nctnico would you stop with the lies and incorrect information about 3rd generation bio-fuels.  How many times and how many posters have to point out all of the flaws in your posts.  All of your posts are marketing materials and are projected goals.  Then when we show you those goals were not meet you still post the same marketing material as fact.

      Why do you keep reposting the same lies over?  Are you thinking if you keep saying the same lie over and over it will change the science?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 07:35:18 pm

      i already gave you my battery costs and told you that at 14p/KWh my battery breaks even.

      And I showed with Figures you could and did not even attempt to challenge with your exaggeration and lies that your battery COST  you money but you stick your fingers in your ears and start yelling Na na na like a spoilt kid and try to convince us of more fantasy and make believe.

      You want to piss money up the wall deluding yourself you are saving money or the environment, Go right ahead. Probably the reason you can't afford to buy a decent second hand EV you defend with your Cult like zealotness.
      Do what you want but don't try and convince me of YOUR bullshit, Lies and exaggeration because I have done more homework and research on this than would allow you to ever get away with such Rubbish and Pipe dreams. 

      I calculated your battery would have to store 26KWH a day to break even and said there is no way you have a battery that big even before you admitted it was only 10 Kwh nameplate with 8 useable. Even by your own fantasy, your 5000 Cycles is over 13 years payback time AT Full capacity which will never happen. You'd need 15 years bare minimum and by that time the degradation in your pack will mean the actualy useable capacity is down to 6 Kwh or less meaning just the PAYBACK, not the profit time is probably blowing out closer to 18 years or worse.  Same as every other battery out there and yours is not different except in some deluded imagination.

      I could do the maths again but you would only deny the numbers because they would show you are the one bullshiting yourself.
      Carry on saving all this money that exists only in your head but dont try and convince others not high on the green Koolaide you are doing anything but undermining the financial  position of yourself and that of your family.

      And the cost of electricity continues to rise, just a few pages aco your mate was telling me my electricity was so expensive that my batteries were obviously viable. yes we go round in circles. Instead of admitting that there are 2 ways of doing things you have to prove that yours are overwhelminly right and other are stupid and expensive. i am sure that when the first cars came out every household immediately dashed out and bought one? no?, but they do now? I wonder how it is that i can afford a car at all. Maybe because I am not an early adopter and generations before me paid for the development.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 07:36:08 pm
      This paper (from 2003) claims a percentage of 32%. With the efficient ICE hybrids available nowadays this number can be much higher. It has to come from both sides: reducing fuel consumption on one hand and switching to renewables on the other.
      For stationary electricity generation nuclear is a much better option.

      nctnico would you stop with the lies and incorrect information about 3rd generation bio-fuels.  How many times and how many posters have to point out all of the flaws in your posts.  All of your posts are marketing materials and are projected goals.  Then when we show you those goals were not meet you still post the same marketing material as fact.

      Why do you keep reposting the same lies over?  Are you thinking if you keep saying the same lie over and over it will change the science?

      Don't forget he has to change the subject too, that is why we go round in circles.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 07:40:30 pm
      This paper (from 2003) claims a percentage of 32%. With the efficient ICE hybrids available nowadays this number can be much higher. It has to come from both sides: reducing fuel consumption on one hand and switching to renewables on the other.
      For stationary electricity generation nuclear is a much better option.
      nctnico would you stop with the lies and incorrect information about 3rd generation bio-fuels.  How many times and how many posters have to point out all of the flaws in your posts.  All of your posts are marketing materials and are projected goals.
      The fact you keep ignoring is that there are several factories up & running which are producing 3rd generation bio-fuels right now. The article I've linked to shows the production volumes as reported to the EPA. 3rd generation bio-fuels have left the laboratory a long time ago. It is just a matter of time. There is no IF but only WHEN. Again 3rd generation bio-fuels are a highly lucrative business to be in so companies (combined) have invested billions of dollars into getting the factories going. And the companies involved aren't garage start-ups but huge conglomerates. These people don't mess around with unicorn doo-doo.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 07:43:41 pm
      This paper (from 2003) claims a percentage of 32%. With the efficient ICE hybrids available nowadays this number can be much higher. It has to come from both sides: reducing fuel consumption on one hand and switching to renewables on the other.
      For stationary electricity generation nuclear is a much better option.
      nctnico would you stop with the lies and incorrect information about 3rd generation bio-fuels.  How many times and how many posters have to point out all of the flaws in your posts.  All of your posts are marketing materials and are projected goals.
      I know that and I have acknowldged that. But the fact you keep ignoring is that there are several factories up & running which are producing 3rd generation bio-fuels right now. 3rd generation bio-fuels have left the laboratory a long time ago. It is just a matter of time. There is no IF but only WHEN. Again 3rd generation bio-fuels are a highly lucrative business to be in so companies (combined) have invested billions of dollars into getting the factories going. And the companies involved aren't garage start-ups but huge conglomerates. These people don't mess around with unicorn doo-doo.

      So bio fuels can become viable but nothing else can through several generations of development. Thank god for bio fuels you were not sceptical when at gen 1 they were useless, but you won't give any other technology the benefit of the doubt.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 07:47:23 pm
      I never said that. If you read a few pages back then you'll see I also see a good chance for hydrogen. For starters storing hydrogen is likely cheaper compared to batteries, the range of the car is better, the refueling time shorter (depending on the type of filling station) and (according to an old report) the costs for the infrastructure will be 4 times cheaper compared to EVs.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 07:58:25 pm
      Hydrogen, you like hydrogen? i can't possibly think why you like hydrogen, oh let me guess it's because you can still run a ICE car on it. Frow what i read and according to wikipedia hydrogen production is 50% efficient just like our electricity generation that is already there as an infrastructure. where will you get the hydrogen from? surely not from a 25% efficient process to then burn in a 30% ICE?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 08, 2019, 07:59:47 pm
      I never said that. If you read a few pages back then you'll see I also see a good chance for hydrogen. For starters storing hydrogen is likely cheaper compared to batteries, the range of the car is better, the refueling time shorter (depending on the type of filling station) and (according to an old report) the costs for the infrastructure will be 4 times cheaper compared to EVs.

      nctnico PLEASE  STOP WITH THE LIES.

      How many times do you need to be shown Hydrogen come from fossil fuel, electrolysis is wayyyyy to expensive.
      You been shown how dangerous Hydrogen is to store.  It's colorless and odorless and when it meets up with an ignition source everyone will know it.  LZ 129 Hindenburg is just one example.

      nctnico you really need to take a science class to realize just how silly some of your proposed ideas are.  For some reason you think the laws of physics and science can be broken. 

      Dude, get educated in the subject matter before you talk about it.




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 08:01:28 pm
      OK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrolysis_of_water now they reckon 70-80%, still not great. You still need to distribute it. So a new pumped gas infrastructure and if you use tankers you need to compress it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 08:06:52 pm
      Hydrogen, you like hydrogen? i can't possibly think why you like hydrogen, oh let me guess it's because you can still run a ICE car on it. Frow what i read and according to wikipedia hydrogen production is 50% efficient just like our electricity generation that is already there as an infrastructure. where will you get the hydrogen from? surely not from a 25% efficient process to then burn in a 30% ICE?
      No, hydrogen goes into a fuel cell which converts it into electricity. Look at the Toyota Mirai. Look at a hydrogen car as being an EV but you can fill the battery within 5 minutes and drive 400km.

      And even if hydrogen production is 50% effective (and as you noticed this can be greatly improved), storing it requires a (compared to a battery) simple tank which doesn't deteriorate like batteries. All in all this leads to a lower cost.

      Another advantage of hydrogen is that you can ship it. Think about having a large aray of solar panels and/or wind turbines. If you convert the electricity to hydrogen you can ship it around the world. This is not possible with electricity because the grid will be too expensive. This can be extremely interesting for countries with large deserts. Get the electricity to water and transport it as hydrogen from there.

      BTW the reason I looked into hydrogen is because last summer I noticed that a lot of hydrogen pump had appeared along the highways in Germany. I don't think hydrogen will become a big thing quickly but it sure has good cards when looking at the cost and ease of use.

      OK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrolysis_of_water now they reckon 70-80%, still not great. You still need to distribute it. So a new pumped gas infrastructure and if you use tankers you need to compress it.
      In the Netherlands they are investigating to use the existing gas distribution infrastructure to distrubute hydrogen.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 08:12:12 pm
      It would need a very strong tank and still need distributing, like you just said, pumps. I'm not sure overall how efficient and effective it would be but it is one of those technologies that was always about to take over but strangely EV's with batteries are now becoming popular yet when i was a kid a battery EV was a pipe dream, we did not have LI-ION batteries and fuel cell vehicles were already being trialled so i don't know why it has taken so long that another so called useless technology has overtaken it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 08:13:18 pm


      OK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrolysis_of_water now they reckon 70-80%, still not great. You still need to distribute it. So a new pumped gas infrastructure and if you use tankers you need to compress it.
      In the Netherlands they are investigating to use the existing gas distribution infrastructure to distrubute hydrogen.

      If you mix it all you can do is burn it. methane is a bit useless in a fuel cell. It will need an independent network.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: wraper on March 08, 2019, 08:14:12 pm
      Hydrogen, you like hydrogen? i can't possibly think why you like hydrogen, oh let me guess it's because you can still run a ICE car on it. Frow what i read and according to wikipedia hydrogen production is 50% efficient just like our electricity generation that is already there as an infrastructure. where will you get the hydrogen from? surely not from a 25% efficient process to then burn in a 30% ICE?
      No, hydrogen goes into a fuel cell which converts it into electricity. Look at the Toyota Mirai. Look at a hydrogen car as being an EV but you can fill the battery within 5 minutes and drive 400km.

      And even if hydrogen production is 50% effective (and as you noticed this can be greatly improved), storing it requires a (compared to a battery) simple tank which doesn't deteriorate like batteries. All in all this leads to a lower cost.

      BTW the reason I looked into hydrogen is because last summer I noticed that a lot of hydrogen pump had appeared along the highways in Germany. I don't think hydrogen will become a big thing quickly but it sure has good cards when looking at the cost and ease of use.
      You loose a lot of energy in hydrogen production and loose a lot of it again when converting it into electricity within fuel cells. Not to say fuel cells are very expensive, a lot due to containing precious metals. And they wear out way faster than lithium batteries.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 08:14:37 pm


      OK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrolysis_of_water now they reckon 70-80%, still not great. You still need to distribute it. So a new pumped gas infrastructure and if you use tankers you need to compress it.
      In the Netherlands they are investigating to use the existing gas distribution infrastructure to distrubute hydrogen.
      If you mix it all you can do is burn it. methane is a bit useless in a fuel cell. It will need an independent network.
      To clarify: the Dutch government has decided that we are not going to use natural gas in the future so the gas pipes will become defunct. Just like the natural gas I assume the hydrogen won't be under high pressure when entering the home.

      @wraper: I'm not saying hydrogen is ready for prime time now. I do know that Toyota has made big advancements with their fuel cells when it comes to costs and durability.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 08:18:34 pm
      well if they really con switch nationally to hydrogen then fine, you may as well fuel up at home  but you will need a home compressor to get it into your tank.

      but i still do not see it as a serious competitor to electricity if we are switching to renewables. It could be a good way of storing power from renewables for heating when we have excess generation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 08, 2019, 08:47:35 pm
      well if they really con switch nationally to hydrogen then fine, you may as well fuel up at home  but you will need a home compressor to get it into your tank.

      but i still do not see it as a serious competitor to electricity if we are switching to renewables. It could be a good way of storing power from renewables for heating when we have excess generation.

      Simon nctnico is playing you.  He doesn't know what he's talking about.  Just research what he's saying the Dutch Government is doing and you find he's misrepresenting what they are doing.  The Dutch company that's working on 3rd generation bio-fuels isn't really working on biofuels as nctnico claims.  What they are offering is more efficient bailing system which farmers have to pay a licensing fee to use.  The bailing system is suppose to be more efficient.  In collecting more silage from the farmers it creates more biofuel.  But at the same time in collecting more silage means farmers have to apply more fertilizer since there is less biomass in the soil.
       
      A previous poster who owns a e Toyota Mirai said it takes 20 minutes to fuel his hydrogen powered car.

      But let's look at the truth about hydrogen cars.  Not mentioned in the video is the safety of hydrogen powered cars.  Hydrogen gas leaks can not be detected.  Or I should say they are detected after the fact with the fact being an enormous explosion or fire.

      nctnico just seems to ignore the facts and still promotes hydrogen which in reality is a fossil fuel.

      https://youtu.be/f7MzFfuNOtY



       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 08, 2019, 08:52:27 pm
      The truth about biofuels nctnico ignores.

      https://youtu.be/d3o_R1ASCA8
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 08, 2019, 08:57:49 pm
      I'm happy to hear any argument, in the end we need the facts but I'm sure the subject will change right at the point we get to numbers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 09:01:23 pm
      The Dutch company that's working on 3rd generation bio-fuels isn't really working on biofuels as nctnico claims.  What they are offering is more efficient bailing system which farmers have to pay a licensing fee to use.
      This just proves you can't read or don't understand what you read. Why would a chemical company (DSM) which specialises in enzymes and yeast invent a new baler? It doesn't make any sense so you should be able to figure out that your claim must be wrong. And while I'm at it: you never ever came up with any sources which have a grounding in actual science and/or statistics.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 08, 2019, 09:24:28 pm
      I'm happy to hear any argument, in the end we need the facts but I'm sure the subject will change right at the point we get to numbers.

      I'm like you.  When nctnico posted about biofuels I looked at the links he provided.  Many were from years ago.  They were making projections about the future of biofuels.  Well here we are in the future and they failed to meet or even come close to what was claimed.

      Since nctnico only provides marketing hype and no facts I will do that for you to show you he's just been misleading everyone.     

      DSM is the Dutch biofuel company he keep talking about.  They developed something called the EZ Bale system. 
      These are quotes from the links he provided.


      "POET-DSM developed its innovative EZ Bale system."

      "To make it easier for farmers in the surrounding area to collect EZ Bales, POET-DSM has worked with more than a dozen manufacturers of harvest equipment, which include AGCO, Case IH, Claas, Demco, Fantini, John Deere, Ken's Truck & Trailer, Milstak, Redekop, Stinger, SmithCo, Unverferth, Vermeer, and Wildcat. Local farmers are now under contract to deliver the EZ Bales, which also help them manage their crop residue and decrease tillage." 

      This is not about biofuels as nctnico says.  It's about a system called EZ Bale and the licensing of EX Bale technology.

      I will let the facts speak for themselves instead of the false information nctnico keeps posting.



      http://poet-dsm.com/resources/docs/Stover-Bale-vs-EZ-Bale.pdf (http://poet-dsm.com/resources/docs/Stover-Bale-vs-EZ-Bale.pdf)



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 09:32:48 pm
      See, you can't read. It says POET-DSM invented the easy baler. Not DSM! POET-DSM is a joint venture where DSM brings in the expertise on yeast & enzymes (being a chemical company) and POET has expertise in producing ethanol and dealing with farmers to get the feedstock.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 08, 2019, 09:59:18 pm
      See, you can't read. It says POET-DSM invented the easy baler. Not DSM! POET-DSM is a joint venture where DSM brings in the expertise on yeast & enzymes (being a chemical company) and POET has expertise in producing ethanol and dealing with farmers to get the feedstock.

      That is what you believe.  What everyone is looking for from you is proof. 

      What you saying makes no sense.

      "POET, LLC based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, is one of the world's largest ethanol producers, with a 25-year history as an American renewable fuel pioneer."  Why would a Dutch company come to the United States not use their own product in their own country? 

      Where does it say DSM is in the biofuels business? 

      Royal DSM, a global science-based company active in health, nutrition and materials, has a decades-long legacy of driving environmental progress and technological advancement.

      I know you say you don't use critical thinking skills, but try when you read the following from DSM.  Do you see the world license?  If POET is an ethanol producers and DSM is in the material business doesn't it make sense POET technology is in ethanol production?  And DSM is in materials? 

      POET-DSM Advanced Biofuels intends to globally license an integrated technology package that converts corn crop residue to cellulosic bio-ethanol. 

      All you have to do is provide some evidence to support your claim.  So far you have not.   This is why no one trusts anything you have to say.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 10:21:18 pm
      You are just repeating what I wrote. POET does ethanol, DSM does science. Combined they are POET-DSM and do 3rd generation bio-fuels.
      What is your question? What don't you understand from all the materials I posted?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 08, 2019, 10:59:12 pm
      Hydrogen has too many disadvantages. They are now in our country looking at formic acid, it has many advantages. A few buses are currently running on it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 08, 2019, 11:27:53 pm
      Hydrogen has too many disadvantages. They are now in our country looking at formic acid, it has many advantages. A few buses are currently running on it.
      Interesting. It seems like one of many ways to bind hydrogen into a liquid which is then easy to store and transport. However, it still is hydrogen  ;)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 08, 2019, 11:42:43 pm
      Correct although they are looking for alternatives to produce it.
      Electrolysis for hydrogen is not only dangerous but also costs too much energy so not viable IMO for the coming years.
      The other way to produce hydrogen is dirty with steaming natural gas (dont know the english term) which is so cheap that no capatilistic company is looking further. So that remains a big problem

      Another reason I am afaid ice's will remain is that petrol is only a small byproduct for the usage of crude oil. In the begin years of oil they even threw it away because they had no use for it. So not only do we as humankind need to abandon petrol and diesel cars, no also all the other products which are too many to just find an alternative.
      Almost all organic compounds are derived from crude oil, at least half of our medicins are currently made from a product of crude oil.
      So no more lubrication products, no more air planes, no more plastick, no more asphalt for roads no more makeup, no more fuel for ships and you can continue.

      So the real question we have to solve is, how can we as mankind continue without crude oil ?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 08, 2019, 11:47:09 pm

      And the cost of electricity continues to rise,

      It would have to more than quadrupole to make your battery even in the ballpark of breaking even.
      While electricity prices rise, your battery is wearing out and holding less power, lets not forget that detail.


      Quote
      i am sure that when the first cars came out every household immediately dashed out and bought one? no?, but they do now? I wonder how it is that i can afford a car at all. Maybe because I am not an early adopter and generations before me paid for the development.

          :blah: :blah:   WTF has this got to do with the fact your battery is costing you a lot of money rather than saving you a thing??   

      Quote
      Don't forget he has to change the subject too, that is why we go round in circles.

       :palm:  The hypocrisy is incredible, just incredible.

      Quote
      I am happy to be corrected.
       

      ???  BWAHAHAHAHA!   Funniest thing in this whole thread by a mile!!   :-DD
      Now that is QUALITY comedy right there!!  :-+


      Quote
      I'm happy to hear any argument, in the end we need the facts but I'm sure the subject will change right at the point we get to numbers.

      Wow!, You are spot on there, you changed the subject straight away twice now when I brought up numbers.  Nothing like being able to tell other people things based on personal experience and putting things into practice I always say!

      Talk about Zero credibility factor!
      I'd make sure I had some credibility and was not making  a hypocrite of myself in doing the things I accuse others of before directing any complaints at other people.... But then again being a hypocrite doesn't matter to some as clearly evidenced here.  |O

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 09, 2019, 12:07:47 am
      Another reason I am afaid ice's will remain is that petrol is only a small byproduct for the usage of crude oil. In the begin years of oil they even threw it away because they had no use for it. So not only do we as humankind need to abandon petrol and diesel cars, no also all the other products which are too many to just find an alternative.
      Almost all organic compounds are derived from crude oil, at least half of our medicins are currently made from a product of crude oil.
      So no more lubrication products, no more air planes, no more plastick, no more asphalt for roads no more makeup, no more fuel for ships and you can continue.

      So the real question we have to solve is, how can we as mankind continue without crude oil ?

      Another good point.

      There are so many things that are derived from oil that people don't recognise. Fertiliser being a big one, plastics being another and there are a myriad more . Tyres are made from oil.
      Another inconvenient truth is if you take oil out the picture, you can't build EV's either. They are just as dependent on oil as ICE's in their production.

       There is no way they are going to suddenly find replacements for all of these things so while they are pulling  oil out the ground for all these other essential uses, there is no way they are not going to maximize the returns on their investment by selling off every bit of it they can.

      It's also another reason why  if and when EV's start Cutting into the sales of Petrol and Diesel, they will just lower the price to make it more competitive and push the advantages of IC vehicles over EV's.
      The other thing is they will still be needing to crack fuel for Planes, lube oil and other uses like diesel that even if there are electric trucks, things like farm machinery, earth moving plant and other things are oing to be 50 years away if ever converted to electric.
      How are you going to charge up a Bulldozer that would need 1000's of KWH of battery when you are cutting a new highway through the back of buggery and the nearest power is 20+ Miles away in a small town with a small feeder anyway? Hook them up to a big Diesel generator to recharge?   :-DD

      Oil is Going NOWHERE despite all the green hype.

      Might be less cars on the road using it but over all..... Drop in the bucket.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on March 09, 2019, 12:08:43 am
      Hydrogen has too many disadvantages. They are now in our country looking at formic acid, it has many advantages. A few buses are currently running on it.
      I'm surprised they've only just tried methanoic/formic acid fuel cells for transport. Small fuel cells of this type have existed for quite a while. Are there technical problems with scaling them?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on March 09, 2019, 12:19:30 am
      Anyway, couldn't help to notice that (as they note in the blog post):
      "High nuclear countries France, Sweden and Finland have among the lowest industrial and domestic electricity prices."
      So much for nuclear power being too expensive...
      The new plant they are building here is promised a higher wholesale price than what is paid now. The project is late, will be late and the price is constantly increasing. Apparently renewables would be half the price so money left for storage, that was before they anounced the price was going up.

      In principle nuclear looks good, the problem i have with nuclear is people. People in power are usually ignorant of scientific and engineering matters and they always want to make more money. That is a recipe for disaster. The disposal of the waste is also a problem as the government has to get involved with planning permissions and no government wants to upset voters so the can is kicked down the road.
      While I'm inclined to agree with that in theory, so far there has actually only been one civilian accident where people were hurt that was caused by ignorance/incompetence (Chernobyl). You could argue Tepco should have planed for the possibility of an enormous tsunami at Fukushima but hindsight is 20/20. Even so, if you divide all the damage by the amount of electricity produced by nuclear, nuclear actually comes out on top. It's one of the safest and cleanest forms of energy there is, on the same level as solar and wind power. Not in theory, in practice, if you look at all the accumulated data from the over 70 years that the world has been using nuclear power (including Fukushima and Chernobyl). It used to be cheap, but new plants get more and more expensive, since politicians keep demanding more and more safety features, regulation, and advance payment for waste handling, etc, etc. That would be great as long as they apply the same logic to other forms of electricity production (especially fossil fuels) but they generally do not. I'm fine with going primarily for solar (or wind, although big wind farms are ugly), but solar can't replace nuclear and coal/gas completely, since solar only produce electricity when then sun shine. Large scale grid storage might become a reality in a few years (or it might not) but until it's available it's not an option. So when governments have to choose between coal/gas or nuclear right now they should definitely go for nuclear. Even people who doesn't believe in global warming should agree since coal produce air-pollution which is literally killing millions every year. If one look at the health and environmental damages from coal plants it makes accidents like Chernobyl look trivial, then add to that climate change. The anti-nuclear crowd are in reality lobbying for coal and gas whether they realise it or not, and any rational person should realise that is by far the worst option today.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on March 09, 2019, 12:39:35 am
      You could argue Tepco should have planed for the possibility of an enormous tsunami at Fukushima but hindsight is 20/20.
      The thing that causes me the most concern about nuclear safety is having worked with people who's main activity was conducting FMEA (failure mode and effect analysis) studies for the nuclear industry. The were really happy to gloss over all sorts of potential problems in the studies they did for us, and I had to flesh out the list of identified failure modes when they had finished. I have no doubt they were just as cavalier in their nuclear work. Every time there has been a nuclear accident (there have been a lot more than just the Chernobyl, Fukushima and Dounreay incidents, which were perhaps the only ones to result in a serious toxic release to the environment), any information that reaches the public shows the problem resulted from the most elementary dumb mistakes in the design or operating practices for the system. Fukushima is far from alone in having vital pumping equipment at a low point in the system where water damage is an accident just waiting to happen.

      Nuclear systems can easily be made a lot safer than they are today, if somebody actually cares enough. Its seldom a cost issue. Its mostly about being bothered to do a good job.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on March 09, 2019, 12:48:04 am
      (according to an old report) the costs for the infrastructure will be 4 times cheaper compared to EVs.
      That is nonsense. The infrastructure required for hydrogen would be absolutely enormous. You need to not only produce the hydrogen, cool it and compress it, you also need to ship it around the world using trucks and boats. In the future there might be pipelines that can handle hydrogen but they don't exist today because hydrogen is such a technically difficult gas to deal with. You get efficiency losses during production and it takes energy to cool, compress and transport, and then finally you need to convert it back into electricity by the end user (further losses). Well-to-wheels efficiency will be abysmal.  No matter how expensive you think the electric grid is, it's still just cables that once built requires little maintenance. A hydrogen infrastructure would require thousands of people doing nothing but maintaining it just to keep the hydrogen flowing (workers at production/compression facilities, specially educated drivers and technicians at refueling stations, etc). An electric cable will always be less expensive in the long run than taking a detour via hydrogen and shipping it around with trucks (or pipelines).

      Maybe hydrogen might be a better alternative than bio-fuels for certain industries where battery electric isn't a viable alternative yet (like aircraft), but I haven't hear anyone talk about that. It will probably be a lot easier to adopt existing engines to work with biodiesel than hydrogen.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 12:51:03 am
      (according to an old report) the costs for the infrastructure will be 4 times cheaper compared to EVs.
      That is nonsense. The infrastructure required for hydrogen would be absolutely enormous.
      Well, this was in a report from 2005 or so. It makes a lot of sense to me because you don't need to have an infrastructure which reaches to each and every car. In the Netherlands it is estimated that it will take 3 to 4 million charging points for EVs to be usefull. That is a charging point for every two cars. With hydrogen you can keep the existing fueling stations.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on March 09, 2019, 12:58:44 am
      With hydrogen you can keep the existing fueling stations.
      Each car would be at the filling station for a lot longer than they currently are, as fueling with hydrogen is fairly slow. The equipment to store and process hydrogen requires a lot more space than storing gasoline, so existing gas station space would be able to support far fewer filling points. So, the existing gas station sites would need to be supplemented by a considerable amount of additional filling station space to service a similar sized fleet of cars.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 01:09:19 am
      With hydrogen you can keep the existing fueling stations.
      Each car would be at the filling station for a lot longer than they currently are, as fueling with hydrogen is fairly slow. The equipment to store and process hydrogen requires a lot more space than storing gasoline, so existing gas station space would be able to support far fewer filling points. So, the existing gas station sites would need to be supplemented by a considerable amount of additional filling station space to service a similar sized fleet of cars.
      That does not match with what I've seen in Germany. The hydrogen filling stations are the same size as a normal fuel pump. I'm also surprised that filling hydrogen is slow according to some people while others are claiming filling with hydrogen can be done in 5 minutes. I suspect it depends on what kind of filling station is used. Maybe the early ones are slow. If space is an issue it would be foolish to install a slow filling station.

      Edit: it seems there are different kinds of hydrogen filling stations. The 'standard fill' seem to be the slow ones.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on March 09, 2019, 01:22:38 am
      With hydrogen you can keep the existing fueling stations.
      Each car would be at the filling station for a lot longer than they currently are, as fueling with hydrogen is fairly slow. The equipment to store and process hydrogen requires a lot more space than storing gasoline, so existing gas station space would be able to support far fewer filling points. So, the existing gas station sites would need to be supplemented by a considerable amount of additional filling station space to service a similar sized fleet of cars.
      That does not match with what I've seen in Germany. The hydrogen filling stations are the same size as a normal fuel pump. I'm also surprised that filling hydrogen is slow according to some people while others are claiming filling with hydrogen can be done in 5 minutes. I suspect it depends on what kind of filling station is used. Maybe the early ones are slow. If space is an issue it would be foolish to install a slow filling station.

      Edit: it seems there are different kinds of hydrogen filling stations. The 'standard fill' seem to be the slow ones.
      Is it possible for you to cut the trolling for just one reply, and try to impress us?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 01:25:28 am
      Well, that is what I've seen while passing by. Just a box with a hose.

      (https://opwegmetwaterstof.nl/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Hyundai_ix35_Fuel_Cell_electric_vehicle_at_Hydrogen_Gas_Station_1-1024x768.jpg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on March 09, 2019, 01:28:26 am
      (according to an old report) the costs for the infrastructure will be 4 times cheaper compared to EVs.
      That is nonsense. The infrastructure required for hydrogen would be absolutely enormous.
      Well, this was in a report from 2005 or so. It makes a lot of sense to me because you don't need to have an infrastructure which reaches to each and every car. In the Netherlands it is estimated that it will take 3 to 4 million charging points for EVs to be usefull. That is a charging point for every two cars. With hydrogen you can keep the existing fueling stations.
      Right, so additionally all the hydrogen cars need to take a detour to a special refueling station taking time for the driver and spending even more fuel on non-productive maintenance. In comparison BEVs will primarily be recharged at their normal parking spot. Once you have installed an EV charging point it doesn't require people maintaining it and refilling it 24/7. The power grid already exists, so you only need to install new endpoints. I can't imagine it would be more expensive, even initially. For hydrogen you need to build factories and trucks, employ and educate a new hydrogen workforce as well as modify the existing refuelling stations with expensive specialised machinery and tanks. EV infrastructure should be mostly maintenance free standard power electronics and repairs/installation can be handled by a normal electrician.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 09, 2019, 01:30:41 am

       Even people who doesn't believe in global warming should agree since coal produce air-pollution which is literally killing millions every year.

      I have heard this parroted many times but I am yet to see the actual evidence they base it on.
      The story usually goes that some organization estimates xxx deaths per year but they never say what the deaths are caused by specifically or how they can directly relate that to coal and not anything or many other things combined.
      Do they do autopsy's and find coal ash in people lungs or do they just come up with a number that suits the agenda of the people paying them to do the supposed study?

      What are the deaths caused by ( cancer, heart problems etc) and how can they specifically relate these deaths to coal and not anything else?

      Another way of looking at it is, if we miracle all the coal plants away, will we see a drop in the attrition rates of the same number of people attributed to coal caused deaths and will the population grow by a similar number seeing all these people are not being killed by coal now?

      Sounds highly doubtful to me so it it does not add up on the cross check then the the sums have to be wrong to start with.
      I'm not trying to do a green cult like defense and say coal is perfect because only an idiot would believe that BUT, what I am saying is if you are going to charge the guy for bank robbery you better have more than he was seen running down the road away from the bank when the cops arrived.
      If you are going to put a blame number on it, I want to know what counting was done and how it was done to come up with figure.
      If it's just a gut feeling by a bunch of people with a vested interest, declared or hidden, then it's just oing to be taken as more green washing to me.

      If I said XXX people were killed by unreliable every year, the outcry would be to prove it and show how I arrived at my numbers.
      Works both ways but I have heard the theroy but never seen the facts or calculations.

      There are so many things that kill  and make us sick  now from preservatives in food, artificial sweeteners, magnetic field exposure, fumes given off by building materials and carpet,  medicine side effects and so the list goes on endlessly.
      I find it difficult to believe that anyone can say when I turn up my toes how much of it was caused by coal power plants, exposure to fuels and oils while playing with engines, radiation I have got standing in front of the microwave and the millions of different particles in the air besides or not coal ash.

      While they Make a song and dance of coal emissions, the ramifications of Fukishima for one and the contamination of the environment and the deaths that will cause is  supposed to be nothing at all.   :bullshit:

      Yeah right!  |O
      I'll take my chances with coal thanks.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 01:39:30 am
      (according to an old report) the costs for the infrastructure will be 4 times cheaper compared to EVs.
      That is nonsense. The infrastructure required for hydrogen would be absolutely enormous.
      Well, this was in a report from 2005 or so. It makes a lot of sense to me because you don't need to have an infrastructure which reaches to each and every car. In the Netherlands it is estimated that it will take 3 to 4 million charging points for EVs to be usefull. That is a charging point for every two cars. With hydrogen you can keep the existing fueling stations.
      Right, so additionally all the hydrogen cars need to take a detour to a special refueling station taking time for the driver and spending even more fuel on non-productive maintenance. In comparison BEVs will primarily be recharged at their normal parking spot. Once you have installed an EV charging point it doesn't require people maintaining it and refilling it 24/7. The power grid already exists,
      No, the power grid doesn't exist. That is the problem. When switching over to 100% EVs you'll need roughly 25% extra generating capacity. According to statistics of the Netherlands, currently 16% of the electricity is used for domestic use. If you want to charge EVs at home (or in the street) you'll likely need to double the capacity going towards the homes. Do not underestimate the amount of power an EV needs.

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

      I also disagree about low maintenance costs. A lot of the charging points will be public and subject to weather and abuse.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 02:13:25 am
      Found a video about filling/ putting 1kg of hydrogen in a car in around one minute.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt02JOax0Xg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt02JOax0Xg)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on March 09, 2019, 02:23:15 am
      Even people who doesn't believe in global warming should agree since coal produce air-pollution which is literally killing millions every year.
      I have heard this parroted many times but I am yet to see the actual evidence they base it on.
      The story usually goes that some organization estimates xxx deaths per year but they never say what the deaths are caused by specifically or how they can directly relate that to coal and not anything or many other things combined.
      Do they do autopsy's and find coal ash in people lungs or do they just come up with a number that suits the agenda of the people paying them to do the supposed study?

      What are the deaths caused by ( cancer, heart problems etc) and how can they specifically relate these deaths to coal and not anything else?
      There is a ton of scientific studies out there. The world health organisation has a page about air-pollution you can take a look at to begin with: https://www.who.int/news-room/air-pollution (https://www.who.int/news-room/air-pollution)

      I assume part of the numbers are based on statistical analysis, but it's on much more solid scientific ground than calculated deaths from nuclear accidents which are controversial and based on worst case assumptions. For example, Iaea estimated less than 4000 premature deaths from Chernobyl, while a more commonly cited figure is 30000. In either case it's peanuts compared to premature deaths caused by air-pollution from coal power _every year_. If you look at the civilian nuclear energy industry as a whole, and calculate the average deaths per kWh produced, nuclear is even safer than solar power according to some:
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/ (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/)

      And yes, we find soot in dead peoples lungs. It's harder to say exactly to what extent that shortened a persons life (or reduced life quality), for that you have to use statistical methods and calculate averages but there is no doubt it is a serious health problem.
      (http://uphe.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Lung-Autopsy-PDF.png)

      While they Make a song and dance of coal emissions, the ramifications of Fukishima for one and the contamination of the environment and the deaths that will cause is  supposed to be nothing at all.   :bullshit:

      Yeah right!  |O
      I'll take my chances with coal thanks.
      I'll much rather take my chances with nuclear since coal power has a more than 1000 times higher mortality rate than nuclear power.

      Coal causes environmental damage like acidification and mercury poisoning of the oceans (heard of mercury in tuna? now you know where it comes from). (And if you're worried about nuclear waste, maybe you should read up about what happens with the waste from coal power stations.)

      ...On top of all that we have climate change. But even without climate change, it should be clear that coal is far worse.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on March 09, 2019, 02:36:44 am
      (according to an old report) the costs for the infrastructure will be 4 times cheaper compared to EVs.
      That is nonsense. The infrastructure required for hydrogen would be absolutely enormous.
      Well, this was in a report from 2005 or so. It makes a lot of sense to me because you don't need to have an infrastructure which reaches to each and every car. In the Netherlands it is estimated that it will take 3 to 4 million charging points for EVs to be usefull. That is a charging point for every two cars. With hydrogen you can keep the existing fueling stations.
      Right, so additionally all the hydrogen cars need to take a detour to a special refueling station taking time for the driver and spending even more fuel on non-productive maintenance. In comparison BEVs will primarily be recharged at their normal parking spot. Once you have installed an EV charging point it doesn't require people maintaining it and refilling it 24/7. The power grid already exists,
      No, the power grid doesn't exist. That is the problem. When switching over to 100% EVs you'll need roughly 25% extra generating capacity. According to statistics of the Netherlands, currently 16% of the electricity is used for domestic use. If you want to charge EVs at home (or in the street) you'll likely need to double the capacity going towards the homes. Do not underestimate the amount of power an EV needs.

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

      I also disagree about low maintenance costs. A lot of the charging points will be public and subject to weather and abuse.
      You would have to increase capacity in some locations perhaps, but you don't have to build a whole new grid from scratch. I meant low maintenance compared to what is required for hydrogen. You don't need a continuous supply of trucks to the EV charging stations which you do to the hydrogen stations (even when everything is working perfectly). For hydrogen you need additional factories, a fleet of trucks, boats, trains, etc, and personell operating all that. For EVs it will be enough with additional charging points and power cables.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 09, 2019, 02:39:35 am


      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

      According to the energy use comparison chart from my power company which services about 5 million people, The average power consumption for a 2 person home is about 16 KWH a day and a 4 person is about 22 KWH/ day.

      Statistics also show like the US and Canada, average home ownership is about 2.4 cars per household.

      But lets  take 20 Km as a number. Someone in the UK will say they travel a 10/th of that and someone in the US will say it's 10 times that but I think 10 KM each way is on the short side here but we'll go with it. In the US the figure is 16 miles which is 20 KM and that adds up with what I can find for oz as a minimum.

      IF the average house is using 20KWh a day and the average EV is going to use 20KWh day, you just doubled the domestic power consumption levels. For one car.  No one I know has just one car or resident going to work each day.  Mimimum is 2, average would be 4 Max whom I visited yesterday is 7.

      The average says 2 so we just tripled the house hold consumption and that is if people are only going 20 KM.  Thinking of my friends and associates, no one lives that close to work. Even before we moved here and my wife worked in the same council area as which we lived, her commute was 12 Km each way and everyone would say wasn't it good she lives so close? When my kids were at school the trip was 14 Km each way for primary and 11 when they went to high school.

      The amount of power EV's are going to require is constantly downplayed but here were we can't even turn on the AC on hot days when the solar generation is at it's highest without blackouts, being able to support triple at least the donmestic power consumption is going to be a miracle.  Yes, it will come in gradualy but I was reading a report by an industry body the other night that said there is no planned significan't increase in power generation planned atm and even if there was, from concept through approval to construction to completeion is 5 years minimum.

      Yeah, there are a bunch of unreliables planned and in the process but as Impressive as they sound on their own, are another half drop of water in the swimming pool let alone the bucket.

      I have been telling a few people about my Home generators I have been working on of late and much to my great surprise, even those whom I was sure would ridicule it as another of my hair brained ideas and muching around have had nothing but compliments and sad agreement that it's more than a worthwhile thing and a good idea.  Main comment has been can you came and put one in at my house when you have finished yours?
      I'm very surprised at how many people are aware of the problems here with power and are due far more credit than I gave them.

      Most also see that we are heading in opposing directions. Taking dependable  thermal power generation out of the equation to replace it with more unreliables at the same time we are planning to go down a road which will require massively more power.
      There is going to be a BIG shortfall and it's coming quick.  We are already starting behind the 8 ball and playing catch up but then again I don't know a lot of places other than a couple that have power to spare before we start down the EV road.


      Quote
      I also disagree about low maintenance costs. A lot of the charging points will be public and subject to weather and abuse.

      While I am not against Hydrogen I don't see it as a competitor on a mainstream scale.
      That said, reading through several comments here going on about the amount and cost of infrastructure to get it to common use is funny as Fk in it's hypocrisy. 

      I can't tell if people are really that stupid, ignorant or just kidding themselves and trying it on with others that the transition to EVs is going to be simple and such a walk up start. Pretty much for every objection they level at hydrogen the same could be leveled at electric. Just because we have power generators or whatever type and poles and wires coming to our homes does not mean they are OK or will automaticaly support EV's.

      Clearly as usualy, people are completely ignorant to electrical principals and whats involved.
      I spose if you don't know how to Run a new power circuit for an outlet in your own home and thing that's a job only a professional should handle, then it is easy to see how people can be ignorant and not have a clue of what is involved with changing over the domestic fleet or any significan't part of it to EV's.

      But Ill just wait for the retorts about how cheap, easy straight forward is all going to be and sit back and have a laugh.

      It will be really amusing to come back to these threads in 5 years time and read all about how cheap batteries are going to become and how ev's will be cheaper to drive and there will be plenty of power for them and recharging will never be a problem and all these things people are so adamant about. Maybe by then we will have all been educated in practical knowledge to a lot of things none of us have thought of.  I'm sure some of my thoughts will be proven wrong but I'm damned sure a lot of the EV evangelists are going to have egg laid by elephants on their faces with the things they are trying to push which will be shown up as fallacy.   :-DD
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 09, 2019, 04:19:30 am
      Found a video about filling/ putting 1kg of hydrogen in a car in around one minute.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt02JOax0Xg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt02JOax0Xg)

      And then there's the truth about Hydrogen cars nctinco intentionally doesn't mention.


      https://youtu.be/f7MzFfuNOtY (https://youtu.be/f7MzFfuNOtY)

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z_19bRFblw (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z_19bRFblw)

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBHc9u89-nc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBHc9u89-nc)


       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 09, 2019, 04:38:33 am
      There is a ton of scientific studies out there. The world health organisation has a page about air-pollution you can take a look at to begin with: https://www.who.int/news-room/air-pollution (https://www.who.int/news-room/air-pollution)

      Thank you for the links.
      They prove exactly what I said perfectly.

      When I look at the first link the sub headlines on the first page are:

       Air pollution levels remain dangerously high in many parts of the world. New data from WHO shows that 9 out of 10 people breathe air containing high levels of pollutants.
       WHO estimates that around 7 million people die every year from exposure to polluted air.
       Ambient air pollution alone caused some 4.2 million deaths in 2016, while household air pollution from cooking with polluting fuels and technologies caused an estimated 3.8 million deaths in the same period.


      They Bundle coal in with industry ( which by extrapolation including the building of EV's and filthy proces for components like battery chemistry) and they make mention of Cooking with biomass in the 3rd world but I could NOT find anything that specifically and uniquely pointed to coal even after doing a site search. The closest match was again using it as a fuel source in the 3rd world which closing power plants in the first wold is not going to affect in any way.

      I can only assume if coal were such a terrible killer it would be a headline with the numbers for the 3rd world cooking.
      As there was nothing I could find unique to Coal, at very least I have to call into question the measuring process and the parroted mantras it is so bad. If they had specific and verifiable numbers, I have no doubt they would be right there.

      If you know of parts of that site that specifically address coal from power station generation, I'd be interested to read it.


      The second link again proves my point.
      All ESTIMATES from various ( green biased) organisations that state something as irrefutable gospel but no explanation of how these ESTIMATES were calculated nor the source .
      Tobacco industry once said smoking was not harmful as well so forgive me if I just take things which logic and experience tell me is questionable with blind and unquestionable faith.

      Sorry, ZERO credibility in my book. Like I said, If I put up a link that said unreliables killed so many people per year, the first thing would be what's the source, how did they calculate it?  where were the surveys done, what safety procedures were in place and so it would go so it cuts both ways.



       
      Quote
      For example, Iaea estimated less than 4000 premature deaths from Chernobyl, while a more commonly cited figure is 30000. In either case it's peanuts compared to premature deaths caused by air-pollution from coal power _every year_.

      My points proven again!
      1, figures from biased sources cannot be trusted without verification,
      2. You are saying one number is  insignificant to the other when the number you favour is also an estimate from a biased source with no explanation of how it was calculated !

      Why are nuke deaths peanuts compared to coal power when we haven't even established a credible figure, just "estimates".

      Quote
      If you look at the civilian nuclear energy industry as a whole, and calculate the average deaths per kWh produced, nuclear is even safer than solar power according to some:

      Yep, there is always a way to spin numbers and statistics to say what you want.
      How about we crunch the numbers for the cost of cleanup and the lives lost in doing so for coal plant accidents and Nuke accidents.
      Lets give the Nuke side a head start and we'll just include Chernobyl, Fukishima and 3 Mile island.  You can heap together all the accidents on record for coal.

      Lets look at all the radiation released into the oceans  directly attributable to coal through unique isotopes  that could have come from no where else as against those that are only found in nuke reactors and are not naturally occurring.
      Lets have a look at the amount of people evacuated and displaced by nuke accidents  as against those evacuated, displaces and never allowed to return to their homes from coal  accidents .  How about how many towns and citys are permanently off limits due  to the accidents and emissions from coal plants compared to nuke plants.

      The old "air travel is the safest form of transport" crap won't wash with me.  You can shoot that down just by changing the parameters from miles traveled to number of journeys taken and then planes don't looks so hot.  Clearly the same with the nuke debate.

      Maybe we could look at how many tons of coal ash lies in unuseable stockpiles of containers and is buried in mountains  for eternity because a drum of the stuff could potentialy wipe out thousands of acres of land, poison water tables and lay waste to everything it contaminated.  Coal is used in concrete, roads and other building materials and can easily not only be disposed of but put to practical use.

      Yes, coal ash IS radio active but so are bananas and just like bananas, coal ash does not contain hot particles that if ingested have a 99% of causing a cancer that will kill you in a painful and indignant  death.

      I really don't know why people try to defend something like nuke. The green washed are always going on about " The children and future generations" Crap yet  no regard is paid to this in the nuke support.

      I'd rather only have power during the day when the sun was shining than have a Nuke plant anywhere in the country giving free power 24/7.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 09, 2019, 04:56:58 am
      Something else nctnico isn't saying about hydrogen cars.... The money.

      The State of California is spending $200 million to get the development of Hydrogen cars moving along.  Want some free government funding?  Just hold out your hand, smile and say the magic word, "Hydrogen powered car" and money will shower upon you.  But only if you ignore the science.

      Really wish nctnico would do a bit of research and thinking before posting.

      https://youtu.be/r5b6SthDbsE




      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 09, 2019, 04:58:24 am

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBHc9u89-nc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBHc9u89-nc)

      A video by a tesla owner bagging out Hydrogen.
      YA!

      That would be  fair and unbiased with a very balanced assessment of the pros and cons of the technology wouldn't it.?    :palm:

      Again, I don't have anything for or against hydrogen but the biggest bullshit there is the video itself and the obvious bias of the person producing it.  Not really relevant to the producer, more contrevery it creates the more views he gets the more revenue he makes. Good luck to him.  He''s certainly smart enough to appeal to a huge and supportive audience.  I should do some similar clickbait vids and watch people hold them out as creditable.
       
      Let me find a vid of a guy with a souped up F-350 Diesel that's done a vid on why EV's are bullshit and watch the fireworks and screaming protests from the EV crowd.

      -IF- hydrogen ever gets any legs, and it's far from a better or worse than EV contest,  we could very well have another Beta VHS quandry.

      Difference this time will the there will be some VERY big fingers in the pie making  it more of a corporate global war than anything else.
      Wont matter which one is better or worse, the winner will be the one whom makes the advertising agency's the richest.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 09, 2019, 05:15:14 am
      The State of California is spending $200 million to get the development of Hydrogen cars moving along.

      How much have they spent on EV subsidies and infrastructure?


      Wasn't  there a federal subsidy @ $7500 per car till dec 18 then another at $3750 till July then 1850 till dec '19.
      What is the all up cost of that going to be?
      I don't know but given the amount of vehicles coming out and what Tesla alone has already sold, i'd say it kinda makes $200M look like a bargain in comparison doesn't it?   ::)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on March 09, 2019, 05:36:33 am

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

      No wonder you guys don't get it.  You don't understand basic math.  Perhaps you can find a 4th grader and have them help you with your multiplication.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on March 09, 2019, 10:09:14 am
      Boffin many of your posts and your own website is (was?) full of silly mistakes like that, last time I checked.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 09, 2019, 10:42:31 am
      The State of California is spending $200 million to get the development of Hydrogen cars moving along.

      How much have they spent on EV subsidies and infrastructure?


      Wasn't  there a federal subsidy @ $7500 per car till dec 18 then another at $3750 till July then 1850 till dec '19.
      What is the all up cost of that going to be?
      I don't know but given the amount of vehicles coming out and what Tesla alone has already sold, i'd say it kinda makes $200M look like a bargain in comparison doesn't it?   ::)

      You are right about the fed, but it was not a subsidy it was/is a tax credit.
      The state did have a $2,500 cash rebate on EVs plus another $500 from the power company.

      The state, not the feds are in vesting the $200 million to build 100 hydrogen refueling stations.  I guess the thought is with one state having 100 hydrogen fueling stations all of the car manufacturers will start producing hydrogen cars.  Silly politicians they think spending money to build refueling stations can change the laws of physics.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 11:08:48 am

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

      No wonder you guys don't get it.  You don't understand basic math.  Perhaps you can find a 4th grader and have them help you with your multiplication.
      Sorry you are right. Well spotted. In my defense: It was late. With the right numbers it looks at lot more doable:

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=2kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*2kWh=460kWh just for one person to go to work. It still is a big chunk of the electricity usage of one person and as Goerge80 mentioned this number is on the low side.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 11:18:41 am

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

      No wonder you guys don't get it.  You don't understand basic math.  Perhaps you can find a 4th grader and have them help you with your multiplication.
      Sorry you are right. Well spotted. In my defense: It was late. With the right numbers it looks at lot more doable:

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=2kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*2kWh=460kWh just for one person to go to work. It still is a big chunk of the electricity usage of one person and as Goerge80 mentioned this number is on the low side.


      My annual usage is 2MW, about 4 times that, my annul self generation is estimated at 5.3MW, since the beginning of the year I have already generated 600KW. As we already know ICE vehicles will use more power per mile/Km. If cost was not an object i could be self sufficient. My 13 mile round trip to work each day would use 5.2KWh, anually (assuming i drive the same every day I don't go to work too) I would use sub 2MWh.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 11:54:07 am
      There is a ton of scientific studies out there. The world health organisation has a page about air-pollution you can take a look at to begin with: https://www.who.int/news-room/air-pollution (https://www.who.int/news-room/air-pollution)

      Thank you for the links.
      They prove exactly what I said perfectly.

      When I look at the first link the sub headlines on the first page are:

       Air pollution levels remain dangerously high in many parts of the world. New data from WHO shows that 9 out of 10 people breathe air containing high levels of pollutants.
       WHO estimates that around 7 million people die every year from exposure to polluted air.
       Ambient air pollution alone caused some 4.2 million deaths in 2016, while household air pollution from cooking with polluting fuels and technologies caused an estimated 3.8 million deaths in the same period.


      They Bundle coal in with industry ( which by extrapolation including the building of EV's and filthy proces for components like battery chemistry) and they make mention of Cooking with biomass in the 3rd world but I could NOT find anything that specifically and uniquely pointed to coal even after doing a site search. The closest match was again using it as a fuel source in the 3rd world which closing power plants in the first wold is not going to affect in any way.
      Apis linked to a more scientific report earlier. Also other sources underwrite these conclusions. I guess it is like smoking: it has been accepted for such a long time that it is hard to convince people it is very bad for your health.

      The Dutch government doesn't deny coal causes premature deaths but basically says it is an acceptable risk (in Dutch):
      https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/binaries/rijksoverheid/documenten/kamerstukken/2019/02/21/beantwoording-kamervragen-over-het-rapport-%E2%80%98last-gasp-the-coal-companies-making-europe-sick%E2%80%99/beantwoording-kamervragen-over-het-rapport-%E2%80%98last-gasp-the-coal-companies-making-europe-sick%E2%80%99.pdf (https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/binaries/rijksoverheid/documenten/kamerstukken/2019/02/21/beantwoording-kamervragen-over-het-rapport-%E2%80%98last-gasp-the-coal-companies-making-europe-sick%E2%80%99/beantwoording-kamervragen-over-het-rapport-%E2%80%98last-gasp-the-coal-companies-making-europe-sick%E2%80%99.pdf)

      I find it interesting Greenpeace et al don't focus on this more. But that would probably force them to say nuclear is the best option after all  >:D
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 12:08:27 pm
      I find it interesting that all politicians including local one that make stupid infrastructure decisions that cause traffic jams don't thing of mugs like me sitting in traffic breathing in fumes! and yes i know i am i can smell it when it's a calm day and half the town is grid loked. i usually drive around with the air on re-circ but have to tun the air con on to stop the car misting up so i make even more fumes.....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 09, 2019, 01:57:44 pm
      As for the accidental death and heath risks anyone done a comparison for the different energy sources?

      Coal is at the top of the list for accidental death.  Mining accidents have killed tens of thousand.  Mining companies that do not maintain there slag heaps have caused numerous floods killing thousands and wiping out towns.  Then there's black lung disease and heath issues from the particulate in diesel fumes.  Estimated 3 million deaths per year.  There are many accidents which claimed the life of over 1,000 people.

      Solar and Wind kills  Around 75 - 85 deaths per year.  Solar kills more people every year than all nuclear accidents over the past 60 years.  Most of the deaths are people fall off of roofs.  Wind kills 10 to 20 people per year.  They either fall off the turbine or clothing gets tangled in the spinning blades.

      Hydro kills 2 to 5 people per year.

      Not sure about geothermal.

      Nuclear - All of the nuclear power accidents combined over the last 60 years have killed just under 75 people.  The long term heath risk from the Chernobyl accident is 3,000 to 5,000 unexpected cancers.  Compare that to coal and it's trivial.

      Fossil liquid mining and processing - Can't find any numbers but suspect it's around 50 per year.





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on March 09, 2019, 02:24:55 pm

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

      No wonder you guys don't get it.  You don't understand basic math.  Perhaps you can find a 4th grader and have them help you with your multiplication.
      Sorry you are right. Well spotted. In my defense: It was late. With the right numbers it looks at lot more doable:

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=2kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*2kWh=460kWh just for one person to go to work. It still is a big chunk of the electricity usage of one person and as Goerge80 mentioned this number is on the low side.


      My annual usage is 2MW, about 4 times that, my annul self generation is estimated at 5.3MW, since the beginning of the year I have already generated 600KW. As we already know ICE vehicles will use more power per mile/Km. If cost was not an object i could be self sufficient. My 13 mile round trip to work each day would use 5.2KWh, anually (assuming i drive the same every day I don't go to work too) I would use sub 2MWh.

      Do you mean 2 MW-hr?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 09, 2019, 02:37:28 pm
      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=2kWh per day.

      I took the figures at face value, should have paid more attention.  None the less, the 200 figure at the risk, no certainty, of being labeled a denier or what ever, is unrealistically low.  I looked on a bunch of sites and while the smallest cars can get this, the reports I read for things bigger than a sardine car all said in real world driving their usage was a fair bit higher over all depending on the vehicle.  200 Wh is less than double the power in my electric Drill battery. The battery in my camera flash is 120 Wh. No one is going to tell me there is enough power in 200wh to propel a ton and a half of mid size EV 1KM down the road unless it's all down hill. 

      Another thing I didn't consider  with these figures is the use of a heater, AC, stereo, wipers and lights at night.  They would have to add significantly in real world conditions as the reports I mentioned outlined.  AC seems to give a big hit as do heaters which would be expected. 

       
      Quote
      With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*2kWh=460kWh just for one person to go to work. It still is a big chunk of the electricity usage of one person and as Goerge80 mentioned this number is on the low side.

      Yes but I concede that is still a lot less than I figured although I didn't pick up on it because that was the number I came up with before in another discussion but I can't remember the calc now of the distances and consumption. Pretty sure it was for a tesla though.
      The main error I see is that realisticaly you might be doing closer to 4 Kwh for real world year round driving and have 2 cars in the house.  At that figure the number is higher but  not 3 times average household use.

      You would be looking at 50% added consumption which is significant but not crushing -if- you only travel and use that much power per day.  Yeah, I do think it is well on the low side for here but that's the numbers we went with and the correct assumption for them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 03:13:15 pm
      The numbers are conservative but what needs to be factored in is when the EVs will charge. Most of them when people get home and if there is an off-peak tariff when that tariff starts. BTW I would assume the off-peak tariff will cease to exist if the demand during that time is getting huge. Either way the load from the EVs is likely to be concentrated over a short period of the day so the grid will need upgrades to deal with it.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 03:55:48 pm
      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=2kWh per day.

      I took the figures at face value, should have paid more attention.  None the less, the 200 figure at the risk, no certainty, of being labeled a denier or what ever, is unrealistically low.  I looked on a bunch of sites and while the smallest cars can get this, the reports I read for things bigger than a sardine car all said in real world driving their usage was a fair bit higher over all depending on the vehicle.  200 Wh is less than double the power in my electric Drill battery. The battery in my camera flash is 120 Wh. No one is going to tell me there is enough power in 200wh to propel a ton and a half of mid size EV 1KM down the road unless it's all down hill.

      So i use the same figures as those arguing against and now I'm wrong. You really can't win can you? I am comparing to a small car yes, like the one i own, a "cheap" runaround. I don't care how much power your drill battery has the comparison is irrelevant. How long does the drill last? more than a minute or two and does it do regenerative breaking?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 03:56:37 pm
      when an EV goes down hill it does not use 200Wh/m, more like -200Wh/m that is what you fail to grasp. the power used is that used to get the vehicle to speed and to overcome frictions, breaking/slowing down is done by recovering the kinetic energy back into the battery. This is the bit i missed when I originally opposed EV's
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 04:03:52 pm
      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=2kWh per day.
      I took the figures at face value, should have paid more attention.  None the less, the 200 figure at the risk, no certainty, of being labeled a denier or what ever, is unrealistically low.  I looked on a bunch of sites and while the smallest cars can get this, the reports I read for things bigger than a sardine car all said in real world driving their usage was a fair bit higher over all depending on the vehicle.  200 Wh is less than double the power in my electric Drill battery. The battery in my camera flash is 120 Wh. No one is going to tell me there is enough power in 200wh to propel a ton and a half of mid size EV 1KM down the road unless it's all down hill. 
      You can do a crude estimation. An efficient ICE needs about 50ml of gas/petrol to drive one km (20km/litre). That 50ml has 2.2MJ of energy. Say 40% of that energy gets converted you end up with needing 880kJ. 200Wh is 720kJ (=200*3600). All in all these numbers seem to be in the same order of magnitude.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 04:13:45 pm
      my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 04:15:55 pm
      And my journey to work is up a hill and then down again so i use all that fuel to climb up and then have to burn off the kinetic energy going down.....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 09, 2019, 04:16:24 pm

      Nuclear - All of the nuclear power accidents combined over the last 60 years have killed just under 75 people.

      I'm sorry but if you believe that you are an absolute fool and a pathetic human being.
       
      You also insult and disparage the memory of the THOUSANDS whom have lost their lives in nuclear accidents by repeating such unforgivable lies.

      Google the Chernobyl  accident clean up and the liquidators and see how many of the 3828 died horrific death's soon after going up on that roof to throw the graphite and fuel rods back into the reactor void before it was sealed up. They were but a small fraction of the people that have as a direct result died since and tens of thousands more that have become sick, ill and painfully incapacitated from it.

      It's one thing for us to sit here in our comfy chairs on our fat arses filling in the too much time some of us clearly have over shit that does not matter and is out of our control,  but to pretend the loss, suffering and deaths of so many didn't actually happen just to try and win an argument, Crosses a line that I won't let go uncrossed without calling those who knowingly cross it pieces of garbage.

      The lie of what happened at Chernobyl and is still happening and Fukushima and other places that have had accidents and kept covered up is exactly why all Nukes should be shut down soon as possible before there is another accident that wipes out half the planet like Chernobyl and Fukushima both came so close to doing.

      Saying only 75 people have died as a result of nuke accidents is the most disgusting thing I have seen written in any online argument in as long as I can remember.  May not be your figure but you aren't that moronically stupid to believe it,  so to even repeat it just to win points in an online pissing contest is just stooping to a new level of low which is offensive as it is repulsive.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 04:25:43 pm
      I thought the numbers a bit low but calm down.

      Nuclear is not a good idea, our current new station is being built by a conglomerate of private companies including the chinese and why the British need a french company to build them a nuclear power station using a Chinese contractor baffles and scars me. These companies are in it for one reason only - money. And once built, if they do not build more of something this too will over run on it's intended life and become a danger.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 09, 2019, 04:34:21 pm

      So i use the same figures as those arguing against and now I'm wrong. You really can't win can you? I am comparing to a small car yes, like the one i own, a "cheap" runaround. I don't care how much power your drill battery has the comparison is irrelevant. How long does the drill last? more than a minute or two and does it do regenerative breaking?

      Maybe you should think about going and getting a second job so you can afford a cheap POS EV that you drool over so much instead of spending so much time here trying to tell us all how great they are when you can't even afford  the few grand one would cost.
      I'm guessing by the tone of your posts you are not in a professional  or esteemed occupation so a 2nd job would no doubt return a lot of benefits for you and your family. 

      If you are so hell bent on saving the world and Ev's WTF aren't you at least driving a Hybrid?  You drive a fiesta, what's the other car in the household?

      Beggars belief that someone could go out and spend money on a Home battery that they will never see a return on no matter how badly they kid themselves, then sit round arguing how cheap an ev is to run when they don't even have the means to buy a cheap used one!!

      Greenwashing has a LOT to answer for but is sure attracts some interesting disciples into their cult.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 04:49:40 pm
      I already told you: I don't have a drive, so i can't charge one. If you want an argument against EV's it is that most of our housing is unsuitable for charging them. My house is valued at around £150K, i paid £86K for it so i can't even afford my own house anymore. A house just around the corner recently sold for £250K and it has a drive and small garage. Forget the price of an EV. i already said I would have already bought one.

      I have a second job thanks.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 05:01:38 pm
      my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
      It is just a crude estimation to see if the numbers aren't way off (like 5 times or more). Doing these estimations is good to do a sanity check on calculations. BTW you might just as well reason the 200Wh/km is too low but any discussion on that is moot; it is not the goal of a sanity check.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 05:02:02 pm
      And i already said that I could afford a cheap second hand EV, but not the latest and greatest no more than i can afford an ICE car, they are the same price you know. While our electricity may be cheap in the UK so are wages, but thank you for putting me in my place. Of course i don't have the £100K to hand to buy a house like mine but with a drive!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 05:03:39 pm
      my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
      It is just a crude estimation to see if the numbers aren't way off (like 5 times or more). You might just as well reason the 200Wh/km is too low.

      So now you say your figure is wrong, make up your mind! we use your figures and when they don't work out you act as though we all made a mistake, we sure did using your numbers. We can't win, when your are proven wrong you decide it's because YOU are using dodgy numbers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 05:15:05 pm
      my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
      It is just a crude estimation to see if the numbers aren't way off (like 5 times or more). You might just as well reason the 200Wh/km is too low.
      So now you say your figure is wrong, make up your mind! we use your figures and when they don't work out you act as though we all made a mistake, we sure did using your numbers. We can't win, when your are proven wrong you decide it's because YOU are using dodgy numbers.
      Sorry, but you are really missing the point here. I just wanted to show George80 that 200Wh/km is a sensible number to propel an EV. Now you want to drill down and get a result with 3 significant digits behind the dot. That serves no purpose in this case. The result of my calculation has an error margin of like +/-50% and that doesn't matter. What part of 'crude estimation' is unclear?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on March 09, 2019, 05:32:44 pm

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

      No wonder you guys don't get it.  You don't understand basic math.  Perhaps you can find a 4th grader and have them help you with your multiplication.
      Sorry you are right. Well spotted. In my defense: It was late. With the right numbers it looks at lot more doable:

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=2kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*2kWh=460kWh just for one person to go to work. It still is a big chunk of the electricity usage of one person and as Goerge80 mentioned this number is on the low side.

      40km * 200Wh/km = 8kWh  (not 20, not 2)
      Around here that's $0.80 worth of electricity.

      same car in ICE is 7l/100km car is 2.8 l @ 1.429/l = $4.00, five times the cost to make the same commute on gasoline.





      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 05:35:53 pm
      Aaarggghhh I'm going to ask my money back from school  |O Where is my friggin' calculator....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: boffin on March 09, 2019, 05:43:11 pm
      Another thing I didn't consider  with these figures is the use of a heater, AC, stereo, wipers and lights at night.  They would have to add significantly in real world conditions as the reports I mentioned outlined.  AC seems to give a big hit as do heaters which would be expected. 

      How is running the AC, wipers, lights, heated seats etc any different on an ICE?

      For all of the accessory items above, you require an ICE engine to burn additional fuel to generate electricity (or mechanical) to power these devices.  In fact the AC, wipers, lights, heated seats are all MORE efficient on an EV as you're not tossing away heat as you try and convert fuel to electricity or mechanical motion. 

      Cabin heat is the only outlier here, where it's a waste byproduct on an ICE car that can be harvested; but my cabin heater draws around 2kW absolute maximum, and after a couple of minutes and the cabin is warmed up, drops down to perhaps 600W.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 05:46:33 pm
      Any new EV can be preheated when on charge but yes it is the only downside although some seat heating has been done with engine coolant.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: mtdoc on March 09, 2019, 06:02:23 pm
      40km * 200Wh/km = 8kWh  (not 20, not 2)
      Around here that's $0.80 worth of electricity.

      same car in ICE is 7l/100km car is 2.8 l @ 1.429/l = $4.00, five times the cost to make the same commute on gasoline.

      There you go posting actual facts again. ::)

      EVs are a technology advancement which are simply the rational, necessary  and inevitable next step in the evolution of personal mechanized transportation. They have their shortcomings and societies transition to them will not be pain free, nor will it be able to completely fill the void left by the ending of the oil age. But it’s happening. They have become mainstream and in perhaps 20 years will be the dominant form of personal transportation.  The few here who seem so emotionally attached to the ICE age that they repeatedly resort to ignoring or distorting the facts in repetative, rambling posts are a testament to how ingrained the “happy motoring” ICE age has become in society.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 07:02:50 pm
      I agree that the days of driving around in gas guzzling ICE cars are numbered but for reasons I outlined earlier I'm sure EVs are not the solution. EVs add up to too much costs.

      See how the French almost went for another revolution due to rising fuel prices because the government wanted to tax ICE cars away. The main problem is that people who don't have a lot of money, spend a large portion of their income on getting to and from their work. Usually they can't afford to move closer to work either. Increasing their transportation costs by a few euro per week takes their holiday away. It is simple as that. So any transition towards reducing CO2 output for transportion has to be cost neutral for the working people.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 07:29:46 pm
      I agree that the days of driving around in gas guzzling ICE cars are numbered but for reasons I outlined earlier I'm sure EVs are not the solution. EVs add up to too much costs.

      See how the French almost went for another revolution due to rising fuel prices because the government wanted to tax ICE cars away. The main problem is that people who don't have a lot of money, spend a large portion of their income on getting to and from their work. Usually they can't afford to move closer to work either. Increasing their transportation costs by a few euro per week takes their holiday away. It is simple as that. So any transition towards reducing CO2 output for transportion has to be cost neutral for the working people.

      Unfortunately someone has to pay, the rich are better at avoiding paying for stuff and governments just want to get elected next time around so they try to avoid taxing both but the poor are generally targetted first and yea when they have nothing left to loose shit happens.

      In the early days to own a car you had to be well off. Then the rich did pave the way for the development and as the costs came down well off people could afford a car. My grandparents were one family in two in a street a mile long that had a car in the 1950's. Wages rose a tiny bit and cars got a lot cheaper due to the economy of scale that slowly crept in.

      So now 70 years after mass production started we have people travelling many miles to work, sometimes over 50 miles. And now we realise that we need a totally new technology. So we have a problem, because no one wants to pay and it's a bit difficult trying to explain to the average Joe that stuff just costs money, more than he was led to believe if he wants to not wreck his environment. But the average Joe only sees as far into the future as tomorrow and when his house does not burn down the day after he is told he thinks he was lied to.

      Once people trusted governments and once governments could be trusted. But in this day and age no one can trust no one and governments are run by people that don't give a shit about anyone.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on March 09, 2019, 08:04:12 pm
      See how the French almost went for another revolution due to rising fuel prices because the government wanted to tax ICE cars away. The main problem is that people who don't have a lot of money, spend a large portion of their income on getting to and from their work. Usually they can't afford to move closer to work either. Increasing their transportation costs by a few euro per week takes their holiday away. It is simple as that. So any transition towards reducing CO2 output for transportion has to be cost neutral for the working people.
      Hence why I like the idea of requiring all new cars to get a higher minimum MPG. It would get the automakers to actually be serious about optimizing for efficiency.

      At the same time, perhaps a way to increase fuel taxes that would have minimal effect on the poor would be to only increase it on the higher grades of fuel?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 08:26:53 pm
      I don't think they can get much more efficient. The clue is in the name "combustion" If you use an ICE to generate electricity you would be recovering the heat for heating and they do do that on gen sets but in cars you are up shits creak.

      Adding things like catalytic converters to try and deal with the emissions just made them less efficient. my 1.25L fiesta gets the same mileage as my old 1.8L mondeo.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 08:54:54 pm
      If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on March 09, 2019, 08:59:53 pm
      I would expect more in the way of hybrids and engine optimizations like Atkinson cycle, as well as aerodynamics tweaks. 30 MPG highway is by no means a hard target and many existing cars already do that or better. What gets trickier is raising the requirement over time to prevent stagnation, since there will be some point where it would no longer be economical to continue.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 09:02:32 pm
      My little 1.25L ICE car has about as small an engine as it can have..... and it is still no better than an old 1.8L engine.

      Where are these biofuels?

      Hybrids? they are a bit of a joke unless done really well. You would have to do regenerative breaking to charge a battery to use the power again later but you end up carrying around more weight and you still won't get away from the fact that 60+% of the energy entering the ICE comes out as heat. About the only thing you can do to make and ICE more efficient is to recover the heat to drive a compressor to help pump the gasses through the cataliytic converter and make the vehicle even heavier!

      Fact is that the only power type we can efficiently handle and convert is electricity.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 09, 2019, 09:04:19 pm
      I would expect more in the way of hybrids and engine optimizations like Atkinson cycle, as well as aerodynamics tweaks. 30 MPG highway is by no means a hard target and many existing cars already do that or better. What gets trickier is raising the requirement over time to prevent stagnation, since there will be some point where it would no longer be economical to continue.

      You cannet break .physics, my car currently is doing 43MPG (UK gallon 4.54L), it can do 50 on a long trip. Most of the inefficiency of ICE is getting them up to being efficient as fast as possible.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on March 09, 2019, 10:18:33 pm
      when an EV goes down hill it does not use 200Wh/m, more like -200Wh/m that is what you fail to grasp. the power used is that used to get the vehicle to speed and to overcome frictions, breaking/slowing down is done by recovering the kinetic energy back into the battery. This is the bit i missed when I originally opposed EV's

      I assume that's per mile?

      If with a 5% grade the potential energy is 219 W-hr/mile  with a car that is 1000 kg.

      To accelerate the car to 60 mi/hr (96 km/hr) the kinetic energy is 99.9 W-hr. 

      Of course this is ignoring conversion efficiency. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: ahbushnell on March 09, 2019, 10:21:01 pm
      my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
      I think he used the 40% to try to find out how much shaft power was required by the car. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 10:26:29 pm
      my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
      I think he used the 40% to try to find out how much shaft power was required by the car.
      Exactly!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 09, 2019, 11:26:47 pm
      I would expect more in the way of hybrids and engine optimizations like Atkinson cycle, as well as aerodynamics tweaks. 30 MPG highway is by no means a hard target and many existing cars already do that or better. What gets trickier is raising the requirement over time to prevent stagnation, since there will be some point where it would no longer be economical to continue.

      Hybrids are what are being discontinued.  VW stopped making there's a couple of years ago.  And Chevy announced end of production for their car.  It appears the car manufactures are giving up on hybrids.  Didn't Volvo say they are only going to make BEV and NOT hybrids? 



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 09, 2019, 11:30:47 pm
      To me it seems every car manufacturer has a different idea on what the future of cars is. Therefore it is no surprise they go in different directions, usually based on their strong and weak points.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on March 09, 2019, 11:34:50 pm
      I would expect more in the way of hybrids and engine optimizations like Atkinson cycle, as well as aerodynamics tweaks. 30 MPG highway is by no means a hard target and many existing cars already do that or better. What gets trickier is raising the requirement over time to prevent stagnation, since there will be some point where it would no longer be economical to continue.

      Hybrids are what are being discontinued.  VW stopped making there's a couple of years ago.  And Chevy announced end of production for their car.  It appears the car manufactures are giving up on hybrids.  Didn't Volvo say they are only going to make BEV and NOT hybrids?
      Mild hybrids, which focus on brake energy recovery, and need only a small battery, seem to be a hot topic right now.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on March 09, 2019, 11:44:35 pm
      There is a ton of scientific studies out there. The world health organisation has a page about air-pollution you can take a look at to begin with: https://www.who.int/news-room/air-pollution (https://www.who.int/news-room/air-pollution)
      Thank you for the links.
      They prove exactly what I said perfectly.
      The first link shows that the world health organisation thinks air pollution is one of the biggest health problems today. It's not a controversial fact so they probably don't feel they need to link everything. But it was not a particularly good website now that I look at it more carefully. It's not so hard to google and find better sources though, if you are really interested. Some quick googling right now led me to these:
      https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-other-reason-to-shift-away-from-coal-air-pollution-that-kills-thousands-every-year/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-other-reason-to-shift-away-from-coal-air-pollution-that-kills-thousands-every-year/)
      https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-and-other-fossil-fuels/coal-air-pollution (https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-and-other-fossil-fuels/coal-air-pollution)
      https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-impacts (https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-impacts)
      https://www.psr.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/coals-assault-on-human-health.pdf (https://www.psr.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/coals-assault-on-human-health.pdf)

      I can only assume if coal were such a terrible killer it would be a headline with the numbers for the 3rd world cooking.
      If you cook with coal briquettes indoors at home it's obviously going to be worse than burning coal in a large coal power plant which can be more efficient and have proper chimneys and hopefully some filtering.

      The second link again proves my point.
      All ESTIMATES from various ( green biased) organisations that state something as irrefutable gospel but no explanation of how these ESTIMATES were calculated nor the source .
      ??? Did you read the right article? Let me link it again:
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/ (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/)
      He even provides a list of references for you. (for example: European Union Report EUR 21951; Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health; Nat. Res. Council, Wash., D.C.; Journal of the AMA; Environmental Defense Fund; WHO; Chittaranjan National Cancer Institute) Except for one none of those are from anything that can reasonably called "green biased". Do you think Forbes is "green biased" as well?

      Energy SourceMortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr)
      Coal – global average100,000 (41% global electricity)
      Coal – China170,000 (75% China’s electricity)
      Coal – U.S.10,000 (32% U.S. electricity)
      Oil36,000 (33% of energy, 8% of electricity)
      Natural Gas4,000 (22% global electricity)
      Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy)
      Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity)
      Wind150 (2% global electricity)
      Hydro – global average1,400    (16% global electricity)
      Hydro – U.S.5 (6% U.S. electricity)
      Nuclear – global average90 (11%  global electricity w/Chern&Fukush)
      Nuclear – U.S.0.1 (19% U.S. electricity)

      Why are nuke deaths peanuts compared to coal power when we haven't even established a credible figure, just "estimates".
      Chernobyl is the worst civilian nuclear accident. Now, after 30 years of scientific studies we have decent worst case estimates of the health impact. Lets take the higher figure of 30000 premature deaths. Lets say Fukushima is just as bad (by all accounts I've read so far Fukushima is much less severe though). That means a total of 60000. That is the total worst case number of deaths from civilian nuclear power since nuclear power was invented. Global electricity production from coal was about 10000 TWh in 2016 according to Iea (https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2291?fileName=Key_World_2018.pdf), so coal power kills roughly 1000000 people every year! :(
       
      Because the level of radioactivity from, for example, Chernobyl is so low that it is basically impossible to measure any negative health effect at all on an individual level, except for a few people who lived closest to the power plant and the first responders. At Chernobyl, which is by far the worst civilian nuclear accident, only about 50 deaths can be linked directly to the accident. The rest is worst case estimated effects from the very low level radioactive pollution that was spread over a large area (and thus affect a lot of people).

      It's similar with coal power plants, you can't tell if an individual died from air pollution from a certain coal power plant, but you can do epidemiological studies that show how air pollution affects human health and then look at the amount and type of air pollution from coal power plants and make estimates based on what we know.


      Quote
      If you look at the civilian nuclear energy industry as a whole, and calculate the average deaths per kWh produced, nuclear is even safer than solar power according to some:

      Yep, there is always a way to spin numbers and statistics to say what you want.
      How about we crunch the numbers for the cost of cleanup and the lives lost in doing so for coal plant accidents and Nuke accidents.
      Lets give the Nuke side a head start and we'll just include Chernobyl, Fukishima and 3 Mile island.  You can heap together all the accidents on record for coal.
      This is a very interesting article comparing impacts and damage costs for coal and nuclear:
      https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/magazines/bulletin/bull41-1/41104991518.pdf (https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/magazines/bulletin/bull41-1/41104991518.pdf)

      When nuclear operates normally it does not generate any pollution at all, so zero deaths. Meanwhile, every year, coal power stations kill a million people at a steady pace.

      If you want to include work related deaths from coal mining it will only look worse for coal.

      Tobacco industry once said smoking was not harmful as well so forgive me if I just take things which logic and experience tell me is questionable with blind and unquestionable faith.
      Indeed they did. Same way the fossil fuel industry now says global warming isn't real and that air pollution from coal power stations is not harmfull.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 09, 2019, 11:45:08 pm
      To me it seems every car manufacturer has a different idea on what the future of cars is. Therefore it is no surprise they go in different directions, usually based on their strong and weak points.

      No - There you are wrong again.  As California has shown we can control and influence the cars the car companies produce.  It was.  You have California to thank for forcing car manufactures to produce cars produce less pollution.

      California is at once again with the hundreds of millions being spent to encourage the development of hydrogen powered cars.  As we have learned this appears to be a stupid idea, but that's government for you.

      When it comes to cars California has always been a leader.

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: apis on March 09, 2019, 11:57:08 pm
      Nuclear is not a good idea, our current new station is being built by a conglomerate of private companies including the chinese and why the British need a french company to build them a nuclear power station using a Chinese contractor baffles and scars me. These companies are in it for one reason only - money. And once built, if they do not build more of something this too will over run on it's intended life and become a danger.
      Both the French and Chinese have a lot of experience with nuclear power. I can't argue against your prophecy but at least the historic track record shows that nuclear is the safest and arguably the most environmentally friendly type of power there is. Maybe that will change in the future, but to me it would seem more logical that the risk of accidents decrease as we learn from previous mistakes and improve the designs and technology.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 10, 2019, 12:04:17 am
      No - There you are wrong again.  As California has shown we can control and influence the cars the car companies produce.  It was.  You have California to thank for forcing car manufactures to produce cars produce less pollution.
      You mean like the billions the germans put in their turbo diesel engine development since 2000 which all was just a big lie?

      One state can't change global car development, if Ford still produces and sells F150 which is one if  the most selling cars in the US, proves they can't even influence their country.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 12:10:51 am
      The tobacco industry created a new "denial" industry when they hired an advertising firm to cause doubt and confusion about cigarettes causing lung cancer.  They were highly successful. 

      The same scientists who were hired to say cigarette smoking doesn't cause cancer were hired to say there is no such thing as acid rain, that STAR WARS defense system would work, DDT, asbestos, and most recently there is no such thing as man caused climate change or global warming.

      This is all very well documented by Naomi Oreskes in "Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming".

      There's a book and a video.  Oreskes does an excellent job exposing the doubt and confusion industry where well known scientists from Universities such as Harvard and MIT are paid to promote doubt and confusion in the eyes of the public and law makers.   

      https://www.amazon.com/Merchants-Doubt-Handful-Scientists-Obscured/dp/1608193942 (https://www.amazon.com/Merchants-Doubt-Handful-Scientists-Obscured/dp/1608193942)

      Video was on YouTube.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 12:18:35 am
      No - There you are wrong again.  As California has shown we can control and influence the cars the car companies produce.  It was.  You have California to thank for forcing car manufactures to produce cars produce less pollution.
      You mean like the billions the germans put in their turbo diesel engine development since 2000 which all was just a big lie?

      One state can't change global car development, if Ford still produces and sells F150 which is one if  the most selling cars in the US, proves they can't even influence their country.

      You had better believe one state can and has.  California had some of the worst air pollution in the world and UC Berkeley scientists demonstrated it was caused by car exhaust.  If your car has anti-pollution controls on it you have the politicians from the State of California to thank.     

      https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/about/history
      https://earth.stanford.edu/news/californias-vehicle-emissions-fight-continues-50-year-struggle#gs.081sd7
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 10, 2019, 12:31:27 am
      Yes they did great things in the past, but what are they doing now that has a global effect as you suggest?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Someone on March 10, 2019, 12:44:30 am
      No, the power grid doesn't exist. That is the problem. When switching over to 100% EVs you'll need roughly 25% extra generating capacity. According to statistics of the Netherlands, currently 16% of the electricity is used for domestic use. If you want to charge EVs at home (or in the street) you'll likely need to double the capacity going towards the homes. Do not underestimate the amount of power an EV needs.

      A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

      I also disagree about low maintenance costs. A lot of the charging points will be public and subject to weather and abuse.
      You can find other references about energy consumption:
      https://www.iea.org/Sankey/#?c=Netherlands&s=Balance (https://www.iea.org/Sankey/#?c=Netherlands&s=Balance)
      That would put transport in NL moving to electricity doubling the electricity production, perhaps some of that can be smoothed by storage but its a huge step change in energy production for the sector. You could try and separate out private transport trips from industry and aviation, but thats already been looked at. The book Sustainable Energy - without the hot air, tallied up an average personal energy consumption picture for the UK:
      http://www.withouthotair.com/c18/page_103.shtml (http://www.withouthotair.com/c18/page_103.shtml)
      Transport is around 1/3 of a persons energy use, give or take. You can look through the IEA stats linked above which break this out country by country. Its not impossible to transition the majority of transportation to electricity, but it will be a slow process and requires significant increases in grid capacity and energy generation.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 12:44:59 am
      Yes they did great things in the past, but what are they doing now that has a global effect as you suggest?

      Errrr what do you mean in the past?  The legacy of what was done 50 years ago still lives on.  We now have a president which is trying to undo or loosen some of these anti-pollution requirements.  And yes we are "fighting" him on it.

      We are spending $200 M on hydrogen fueling stations. - Okay, as we know that's really stupid.  But hey let's waste some tax payer money.

      China and California are the two most important geographic markets in the world when it comes to the adoption of electric vehicles.
      https://evadoption.com/california-evs-by-the-numbers-20-statistics-that-might-surprise-you/ (https://evadoption.com/california-evs-by-the-numbers-20-statistics-that-might-surprise-you/)

       
      California is investing with both public and private funds in an effort to meet the state’s goal to reach 5 million zero emission vehicles on the road by 2030, and is on pace to reach the target of 1.5 million zero emission vehicles on the road by 2025.

      The state has numerous available rebates and incentives – including those from utilities. And the 3 major utilities are investing heavily in EV charging infrastructure programs. California is not only setting the pace but is showing other states how EV adoption will eventually roll out.

      https://www.slideshare.net/LorenEVEvangelist/california-evs-by-the-numbers-99084782 (https://www.slideshare.net/LorenEVEvangelist/california-evs-by-the-numbers-99084782)
      https://evadoption.com/california-evs-by-the-numbers-20-statistics-that-might-surprise-you/ (https://evadoption.com/california-evs-by-the-numbers-20-statistics-that-might-surprise-you/)

      California reaffirms state emission, electric-car rules for 2025
      https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1109565_carb-reaffirms-state-emission-electric-car-rules-for-2025 (https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1109565_carb-reaffirms-state-emission-electric-car-rules-for-2025)

      California will spend $2.5 billion between now and 2025 to install more charging stations and hydrogen fueling stations throughout the state. It will also beef up its incentives and rebate programs for people who buy zero emissions cars. Right now, there are about 350,000 zero-emissions vehicles on the road in California.
      https://gas2.org/2018/03/06/california-executive-order-doubles-down-on-ev-mandate/ (https://gas2.org/2018/03/06/california-executive-order-doubles-down-on-ev-mandate/)

      Here's the best part we are getting Volkswagen to pay of some of this.

      “The plan calls for expanding the number of EV charging stations in the state from 14,000 today to 250,000. Fast charging stations will increase from 1,500 to 10,000 and hydrogen refueling stations will jump from 31 today to 200. Some of the cost of expanding the charging infrastructure will be paid for money Volkswagen has agreed to pay to settle claims connected to its diesel cheating scandal.


      Need more?



      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 10, 2019, 12:50:04 am
      I have to go to bed now but why would global car makers adjust their global plans?
      If ice cars sell globally they ate going to produce them, o matter what happens in California.
      In Europe we always had smaller more fuel efficient cars then in the US simply because the price of fuel plus taxes was many times higher than in the us.
      So maybe that is a better way forward for your country, but only California, I am not convinced this would turn the tide.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 10, 2019, 12:53:42 am
      250000 charging points sounds like a lot but the Netherlands currently has 122000 charging points and will need over 20 times more to get to 3 million charging points (yes, I have used my calculator this time) if nearly all cars are electric. The Netherlands is 10 times smaller than California and has less than half the number of people. Who is going to pay for all those charging points?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Someone on March 10, 2019, 12:59:17 am
      If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
      There is a room, its the road, there is an elephant in it, 4 seat vehicles with single occupants.
      http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml (http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml)
      You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 01:00:16 am
      I have to go to bed now but why would global car makers adjust their global plans?
      If ice cars sell globally they ate going to produce them, o matter what happens in California.
      In Europe we always had smaller more fuel efficient cars then in the US simply because the price of fuel plus taxes was many times higher than in the us.
      So maybe that is a better way forward for your country, but only California, I am not convinced this would turn the tide.

      You need to understand the history of the anti-pollution laws.  The Supreme court has allowed every state to make there own anti-pollution laws.  Car manufactures were looking at this and realized they might have 50 different requirements to meet, one for every state.  At the time California set the toughest standards, with New York, New Jersey, Connecticut following with slightly relaxed laws.  For the car makers they saw this as impossible.  With California having the toughest requirements they could have said screw you and not sell any cars in California, but then again we buy a lot of cars.  I think more than any other state and something like over 10% of new car sales are in California.  So the car companies said screw it.  We will make one car for the California market if all of the other states agree to abide by California's standards.

      I can't say for sure, but I'm sure other countries have adopted some of our anti-pollution laws.  So instead of developing engines and antipollution devices for each country they use what they already have for California.







      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 01:04:58 am
      250000 charging points sounds like a lot but the Netherlands currently has 122000 charging points and will need over 20 times more to get to 3 million charging points (yes, I have used my calculator this time) if nearly all cars are electric. The Netherlands is 10 times smaller than California and has less than half the number of people. Who is going to pay for all those charging points?

      Not sure if you know how to use a calculator.  Why aren't your politicians doing what we are doing in California.  Get VW to pay for some of it.  VW is paying billions in fines.  What will you folks do with the money?  Something stupid like biofuels or hydrogen?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 10, 2019, 01:05:38 am
      If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
      There is a room, its the road, there is an elephant in it, 4 seat vehicles with single occupants.
      http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml (http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml)
      You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!
      That is also an option and over here I see more and more electric micro cars. The problem however is that these don't mix very well with regular traffic. In the Netherlands these are about to be banned from the bike lanes so the micro cars will have to mix with regular traffic which make the micro cars less attractive to people due to traffic jams and safety.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 01:10:06 am
      If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
      There is a room, its the road, there is an elephant in it, 4 seat vehicles with single occupants.
      http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml (http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml)
      You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!

      Not in California or Texas my friend.  Our highly skilled drivers get into too many accidents.  Next to suicide death by car accident is the number 2 killer.  Don't see anyone in California giving up their 4 seater tank to travel around in a small lightweight car that can will disappear when two semitrucks collide.  Or be blown off the road in a wind storm.

      Nice idea, but not practical for us. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Someone on March 10, 2019, 01:32:21 am
      If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
      There is a room, its the road, there is an elephant in it, 4 seat vehicles with single occupants.
      http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml (http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml)
      You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!

      Not in California or Texas my friend.  Our highly skilled drivers get into too many accidents.  Next to suicide death by car accident is the number 2 killer.  Don't see anyone in California giving up their 4 seater tank to travel around in a small lightweight car that can will disappear when two semitrucks collide.  Or be blown off the road in a wind storm.

      Nice idea, but not practical for us.
      Tragedy of the common, take away those tanks and everyone is better off, but individually you are incentivised to have your personal tank.
      https://www.darkerside.org/2013/04/strict-liability-an-idiots-guide/ (https://www.darkerside.org/2013/04/strict-liability-an-idiots-guide/)
      If your road safety is a problem, continuing to ignore the cause of it won't make it better. The elephant is clear.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Someone on March 10, 2019, 01:42:39 am
      If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
      There is a room, its the road, there is an elephant in it, 4 seat vehicles with single occupants.
      http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml (http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml)
      You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!
      That is also an option and over here I see more and more electric micro cars. The problem however is that these don't mix very well with regular traffic. In the Netherlands these are about to be banned from the bike lanes so the micro cars will have to mix with regular traffic which make the micro cars less attractive to people due to traffic jams and safety.
      This is a problem of registration and compliance, the microcars you think of are the quadricycles:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadricycle_(EU_vehicle_classification) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadricycle_(EU_vehicle_classification))
      Around the world are similar power, weight, or speed limits for small vehicles. There is nothing stopping them being built with higher power engines and highways speeds, except for the laws which prevent them being registered/used. Here in Australia such vehciles would need to be registered as a full car:
      https://www.caradvice.com.au/300727/renault-twizy-lands-in-australia/ (https://www.caradvice.com.au/300727/renault-twizy-lands-in-australia/)
      But due to anticipated low demand the companies arent investing the big sums of money to get homologation (so you can't even register it if import one privately).

      Just downsizing the vehicle rapidly improves economy which is perfectly suited to city cars that don't travel big distances:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_electric_drive (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_electric_drive)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 02:35:11 am
      Looking for cars which get 100 miles to the gallon? The Peel P50 does.  Parking's not an issue either, just park it in your office.


      https://youtu.be/dJfSS0ZXYdo
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: NiHaoMike on March 10, 2019, 02:35:42 am
      You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!
      Don't even need to downsize by much - a Prius gets 50 MPG.
      Around the world are similar power, weight, or speed limits for small vehicles. There is nothing stopping them being built with higher power engines and highways speeds, except for the laws which prevent them being registered/used. Here in Australia such vehciles would need to be registered as a full car:
      https://www.caradvice.com.au/300727/renault-twizy-lands-in-australia/ (https://www.caradvice.com.au/300727/renault-twizy-lands-in-australia/)
      But due to anticipated low demand the companies arent investing the big sums of money to get homologation (so you can't even register it if import one privately).
      If those tiny cars are not allowed on the roads for being "unsafe", what about motorcycles that are even more unsafe?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 02:42:16 am
      You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!
      Don't even need to downsize by much - a Prius gets 50 MPG.
      Around the world are similar power, weight, or speed limits for small vehicles. There is nothing stopping them being built with higher power engines and highways speeds, except for the laws which prevent them being registered/used. Here in Australia such vehciles would need to be registered as a full car:
      https://www.caradvice.com.au/300727/renault-twizy-lands-in-australia/ (https://www.caradvice.com.au/300727/renault-twizy-lands-in-australia/)
      But due to anticipated low demand the companies arent investing the big sums of money to get homologation (so you can't even register it if import one privately).
      If those tiny cars are not allowed on the roads for being "unsafe", what about motorcycles that are even more unsafe?

      In California we call them donor cycles.  Riders of motor cycles here have donated countless organs.  I live in the San Francisco Bay Area and it seems like there's a donor or two every week.
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Someone on March 10, 2019, 04:22:26 am
      If those tiny cars are not allowed on the roads for being "unsafe", what about motorcycles that are even more unsafe?
      Imagine a population/world in the present day that didn't have private motor vehicles but everything else was the same. Trucks deliver goods and professional drivers move vehicles around in a much safer manner. Now you stand up in public and propose that:

      Everyone should be allowed to operate a 2 tonne armoured metal box, that has nothing keeping it from colliding with other objects beyond the skill and attention of the driver. We need to reduce the licensing barrier to entry for vehicle use because.... [insert argument here]

      You'd be laughed out of town in the current safety environment in most countries, private cars only continue to exist because they have been grandfathered into "safety" considerations. If we moved to smaller and lighter vehicles it would be a net positive improvement in safety. As for motor cycles, they can be driven safely but the self selecting group of people who use them are more likely to be high risk takers and drive them in very unsafe manners, this inflates the average rate of deaths and injuries. Even so the majority of accidents are found to be not the motor cyclists fault but with external sources. More reading is available here:
      http://www.maids-study.eu/pdf/MAIDS2.pdf (http://www.maids-study.eu/pdf/MAIDS2.pdf)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 04:59:00 am
      If those tiny cars are not allowed on the roads for being "unsafe", what about motorcycles that are even more unsafe?
      Imagine a population/world in the present day that didn't have private motor vehicles but everything else was the same. Trucks deliver goods and professional drivers move vehicles around in a much safer manner. Now you stand up in public and propose that:

      Everyone should be allowed to operate a 2 tonne armoured metal box, that has nothing keeping it from colliding with other objects beyond the skill and attention of the driver. We need to reduce the licensing barrier to entry for vehicle use because.... [insert argument here]

      You'd be laughed out of town in the current safety environment in most countries, private cars only continue to exist because they have been grandfathered into "safety" considerations. If we moved to smaller and lighter vehicles it would be a net positive improvement in safety. As for motor cycles, they can be driven safely but the self selecting group of people who use them are more likely to be high risk takers and drive them in very unsafe manners, this inflates the average rate of deaths and injuries. Even so the majority of accidents are found to be not the motor cyclists fault but with external sources. More reading is available here:
      http://www.maids-study.eu/pdf/MAIDS2.pdf (http://www.maids-study.eu/pdf/MAIDS2.pdf)

      I have no disagreement with you.  In the Bay Area I think you would be surprised how many motorcycle accidents are the riders fault.  I was on the freeway doing 80 MPH and a guy on a motor cycle pulled up next to me, and he signaled me to watch.  He then dropped back about half a mile.  Next thing I new he as doing 100+ (MPH) on the back wheel.  We call them wheelies.  I nominated him for a Darwin award. 

      The last accident I was in a motorcycle driver I was nearly stopped on the freeway.  The guy knew he could not stop and laid his bike down on the asphalt.  I still have the speedometer and tachometer impressions in my bumper.  If the guy had not dropped the bike I am sure he would have gone flying over the top of my car into the one in front of me.

      One more story.  SF/Oakland Bay Bridge.  My buddy was on the upper deck which is few hundred feet about the water.  He's can't remember what happened but he was sent flying over the edge of the bridge.  Lucky for him he hit one of the supporting cables which hold the deck of the bridge to the suspension cable.  Those cables are only an 2" in diameter and spaced 20 feet or so apart.  It was his lucky day he hit that cable and didn't go for a swim.  Crud, can't even think what it would have been like if made the dive into the water with his helmet on. 


      Ever think if cars hadn't been invented yet.  And Benz today was trying to describe to the government his new invention for the car? 
      Benz - My invention called a car will have 15 gallons of highly combustible gasoline in a tank just a few feet from the driver.  The gasoline will be used to power an engine that's heated to 350 degrees just a few feet from the driver on the other side.  And lets not talk about the pollution or carbon monoxide and dioxide which will be emitted.  And these car things we hurl people down the road at 60 MPH.

      Think the government today would approve of such an invention? 

      Now compare that to a Baker electric car.  No chance of a gasoline explosion, no 1,000 pound mass of iron heated to 350 degrees.  Not exhaust fumes, no pollution and no noise.

      Seems to me the EV would easily receive approval today and the ICE would fade into history as a crazy idea that's way too dangerous.  Kind of like the atomic powered planes the Soviets built and flew.  Seemed like a good idea at the time but way too dangerous.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 10, 2019, 09:06:24 am
      Perhaps there is also a big difference in drivers quality.
      It takes here average 20+ lessons of an hour, theoretical test and final 1 hour practical driving test  to get your driving license. Lot of people flunk the first time.

      But perhaps better hear it from an american at 0:50

      https://youtu.be/lNxe2aM7w0Y
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 10, 2019, 09:07:43 am
      We went through a time when people made steam engine cars but they were too dangerous and the only steam road vehicles that ever got any.... erm.... traction were steam tractors and some trucks that did local deliveries. I'm pretty sure someone in the 50's decided they could have a nuclear powered car.

      The thing we do with every new technology is over estimate it's immediate impact and underestimate it's long term impact. Old sci fi films show this over and over.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 10, 2019, 09:10:26 am
      Perhaps there is also a big difference in drivers quality.
      It takes here average 20+ lessons of an hour, theoretical test and final 1 hour practical driving test  to get your driving license. Lot of people flunk the first time.

      But perhaps better hear it from an american at 0:50

      https://youtu.be/lNxe2aM7w0Y

      It's not about how much practice you get and if you .pass first time. I think most issues are culture and personality related. I hate driving in italy. I recently went back there on holiday and friends were surprised at some of what they saw as they were from the UK and i was like, yea? I did warn you they drive like this. My Italian friend that is a nervous driver did not even want to drive.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 10, 2019, 09:29:23 am
      And she speaks alot about the less wasteful way of life that america does not have. Because america is all about big consumption and big waste, - make america great again.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Kjelt on March 10, 2019, 10:15:02 am
      It's not about how much practice you get and if you .pass first time. I think most issues are culture and personality related. I hate driving in italy. I recently went back there on holiday and friends were surprised at some of what they saw as they were from the UK and i was like, yea? I did warn you they drive like this. My Italian friend that is a nervous driver did not even want to drive.
      Fair point. I must say that In those practice hours you do get driving ethics, the correct way how to drive. Most important you get to get a feel about traffic.
      Even in my country if I would drive 100% within the law at max allowed speed at the semi highways I would be overtaken by trucks that are not even allowed so fast. So yeah there is some fuzzy logic that needs to be mixed into the 100% correct driving in order to drive with the crowd.

      Italy I had no problems after the first day. It gets used to egocentric drivers that brake for you at the very last second, perhaps because the foreign number plate. No big issues though.
      Paris city centre, Naples centre, good luck keeping your car scratch free  :)
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 10, 2019, 10:25:29 am
      the problem with italy is that every maneuver is done bumper to bumper with no margin for error because they are arrogant cocks that take pleasure in thoir self created near misses.

      All I learnt in driving lessons was to manipulate a car to a fashion. I learnt to drive after the test. It's common sense really, be safe and respectful. As pointed out a car is 1-+2 tonnes of metal that if not controlled properly will cause harm and suffering. The UK is getting worse though and i get very fearful of driving without my dash cam.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 10, 2019, 10:33:24 am
      the problem with italy is that every maneuver is done bumper to bumper with no margin for error because they are arrogant cocks that take pleasure in thoir self created near misses.

      All I learnt in driving lessons was to manipulate a car to a fashion.
      Rule number one of driving a car: don't hit any other car. Nobody wants a dent. Keep that in mind and driving in cities like Rome, Paris and Jakarta becomes much easier.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 10, 2019, 12:46:46 pm
      Yes the problem is many don't know that rule. When i went to Italy because i took out fully comprehensive insurance they gave me the car with all the dents because they assumed i would treat it badly being fully comprehensive and therefore would not have to pay for any damage.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on March 10, 2019, 01:15:01 pm
      I would expect more in the way of hybrids and engine optimizations like Atkinson cycle, as well as aerodynamics tweaks. 30 MPG highway is by no means a hard target and many existing cars already do that or better. What gets trickier is raising the requirement over time to prevent stagnation, since there will be some point where it would no longer be economical to continue.

      Hybrids are what are being discontinued.  VW stopped making there's a couple of years ago.  And Chevy announced end of production for their car.  It appears the car manufactures are giving up on hybrids.  Didn't Volvo say they are only going to make BEV and NOT hybrids?
      I just watched someone's walkaround at the Geneva Motor Show. There are a lot of fresh new plug in hybrids there. BMW is showing pretty much every car in their range in plug in hybrid form. The existence of most of these vehicles has little to do with their practical effectiveness, though. Its all about taxation rules.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 10, 2019, 01:32:14 pm
      This is my problem. Much of the emergence of new technology is governed by government policy and silly tax breaks. The government pushed deisel, now they have changed their minds. Years ago they gave away 50p/KWh feed in tariff for solar systems. So the rich that could afford them went oooh that's a good investment - get my money back in 5 years. Well now that the rich have all had their go and are rolling in it they have reduced the feed in price and muggins may just see the system pay for itself. I put solar up because i wanted to, not because i was going to make a load of money out of it. And now that the "money has run out" because they gave it all away to the rich no one will put up solar panels anymore because end of this month the feed in tariff goes to almost 0. Now the energy companies could pay a fair price if they wanted to but in law they don't have to.....
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 06:14:24 pm
      As an American I have to say the worst drivers in all of Europe have to be the Brits.  They honk there horns at me yelling you silly bloke.  They put the road signs on the wrong side of the street making thenm nearly impossible to read.  And then they drive on the wrong side of the road.  Only way I can avoid getting into an accident is if I drive on the wrong side of the road. 

      A lot of the consumer buying and conservation habits stems from World War II.  Germany had latterly nothing so conserving was the only way to survive.  UK was in better shape but not by much.  Rationing continued until the late 1950s if I am not mistaken.  In the UK the 1960s was celebrated as being able to spend lavishly on things free of rationing and the economy and business had recovered from WWII.

      Now compare that to the US.  We only lost about a half million Americans to the war and compared to other countries a large ready to work work force.  We had manufacturing facilities for the war that are now idle, a raw material pipeline ready for consumer products, and Most important the technology improvements which were developed as a result of the war.  And let’s not forget we took the advanced technology the Germans.  The technology the Germans had was so advanced it resulted in the creation of many multi-billion dollar American companies. 

      Unlike our counterparts in Europe and Japan WWII which were decimated by the war America and Americans were ready to build, work, buy and have a wonderful life and forget the memories of the battles and horrors of war.  While folks in Europe were searching for food to eat we were living in a country where bigger and more was better.  And this gave America a way to show the world a democracy is better than communion a dictator.  We had the freedom to buy in excess after winning a war to free oppressed people.  We just left out the part that we fought a war so people could have freedom and liberties while not mentioning we were oppressing Americans who were not of European ancestory.  (Blacks and Native Americans.)

      Just as Germany had lured the top scientists of the world to come to Germany in the late 1800s, it was America’s turn.  This was our chance to show our highly refined European neighbors we could be as cultural as they were. 

      All of this went will until 1957 when the Soviets launched Sputnik.  Followed by fist animal in space.  First man in space, first probe to back side of the moon, and fist probe to Venus. 

      That generation is dying off and we are now living in a global economy.  Young folk like that women in the video are releasing what our European neighbors knew for a long time bigger and waste is not better.  Just look at the amount of money and labor it takes to keep a castle or British manor house in good shape. 

      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: coppice on March 10, 2019, 06:25:28 pm
      As an American I have to say the worst drivers in all of Europe have to be the Brits.  They honk there horns at me yelling you silly bloke.
      A typical 10 year old car in the UK will have had its horn honked 8 times - once in every annual MoT test, that is required by law after a car passes its third year.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 06:40:11 pm
      As an American I have to say the worst drivers in all of Europe have to be the Brits.  They honk there horns at me yelling you silly bloke.
      A typical 10 year old car in the UK will have had its horn honked 8 times - once in every annual MoT test, that is required by law after a car passes its third year.

      They exceed there yearly quoted when I visit.

      I will say the Brits are very polite and quit civil when as they drive chaotically.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 10, 2019, 06:53:27 pm
      Driving here is not what it used to be, lots of drivers are ok but the usual now correct stereotype here is that all BMW and Audi drivers are selfish assholes.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 10, 2019, 09:10:25 pm
      Ahhhh Just like in America.  But add to the list Mercedes, young boys with VWs or rice rockets with no or modified mufflers.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: MadScientist on March 14, 2019, 10:51:06 pm
      To me it seems every car manufacturer has a different idea on what the future of cars is. Therefore it is no surprise they go in different directions, usually based on their strong and weak points.

      Any examination of current car makers pronouncements will lead you to the conclusion they see the future as all electric , even if some of them are reluctant to go there
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 14, 2019, 11:04:37 pm
      You know that is a contradiction in itself. Sure there is a market for electric cars but it isn't infinite hence the reluctance. The Dutch government just released calculations on which future government decissions to reduce CO2 emissions are going to be based. Two important conclusions about electric cars: the necessary production volumes cannot be achieved due to material shortages and people can't pay for electric cars. Ergo: the majority of the cars sold in the Netherlands will not be electric for at least the next decade. The same will apply for every European country so rest assured that the majority of the cars being produced for sale in Europe will be ICEs. So any significant reduction in CO2 emission from cars will not be from using electric cars but have to be achieved through optimising ICEs and switching to renewable fuels.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 15, 2019, 01:53:25 am
      You know that is a contradiction in itself. Sure there is a market for electric cars but it isn't infinite hence the reluctance. The Dutch government just released calculations on which future government decissions to reduce CO2 emissions are going to be based. Two important conclusions about electric cars: the necessary production volumes cannot be achieved due to material shortages and people can't pay for electric cars. Ergo: the majority of the cars sold in the Netherlands will not be electric for at least the next decade. The same will apply for every European country so rest assured that the majority of the cars being produced for sale in Europe will be ICEs. So any significant reduction in CO2 emission from cars will not be from using electric cars but have to be achieved through optimising ICEs and switching to renewable fuels.

      In many of your posts you have misunderstood what governments and companies are doing.  Your references are marketing hype which has been proven to be wrong.  Is this time any different?  You don't believe in using science and critical thinking skills, so not sure why what you say should be trusted. 
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 15, 2019, 10:37:49 am
      Ergo: the majority of the cars sold in the Netherlands will not be electric for at least the next decade.

      Only thing I don't trust with that statement is I think it's overly optomistic.
      Predictions I have seen say the majority of vehicles won't be electric for 20 years at least.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: GeorgeOfTheJungle on March 15, 2019, 11:04:59 am
      https://youtu.be/lZWIXwSY_Yk

      MotoE: Fire destroys entire fleet of electric bikes - CNN
      https://duckduckgo.com/?q=jerez+electric+bikes+fire&t=hp&ia=web

      LOL EVs are safer LOL
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 15, 2019, 11:06:25 am
      You know that is a contradiction in itself. Sure there is a market for electric cars but it isn't infinite hence the reluctance. The Dutch government just released calculations on which future government decissions to reduce CO2 emissions are going to be based. Two important conclusions about electric cars: the necessary production volumes cannot be achieved due to material shortages and people can't pay for electric cars. Ergo: the majority of the cars sold in the Netherlands will not be electric for at least the next decade. The same will apply for every European country so rest assured that the majority of the cars being produced for sale in Europe will be ICEs. So any significant reduction in CO2 emission from cars will not be from using electric cars but have to be achieved through optimising ICEs and switching to renewable fuels.

      Why do you keep banging on about ICE's becoming more efficient like they are new developing technology? they will never be efficient, the clue is in the name. The motive power is a byproduct of combustion. If you want o reduce CO2 emissions you have to add filtering which restricts the engine and reduces efficiency. You live in cloud cookoo land I am afraid.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 15, 2019, 11:12:42 am
      You know that is a contradiction in itself. Sure there is a market for electric cars but it isn't infinite hence the reluctance. The Dutch government just released calculations on which future government decissions to reduce CO2 emissions are going to be based. Two important conclusions about electric cars: the necessary production volumes cannot be achieved due to material shortages and people can't pay for electric cars. Ergo: the majority of the cars sold in the Netherlands will not be electric for at least the next decade. The same will apply for every European country so rest assured that the majority of the cars being produced for sale in Europe will be ICEs. So any significant reduction in CO2 emission from cars will not be from using electric cars but have to be achieved through optimising ICEs and switching to renewable fuels.
      Why do you keep banging on about ICE's becoming more efficient like they are new developing technology? they will never be efficient, the clue is in the name. The motive power is a byproduct of combustion. If you want o reduce CO2 emissions you have to add filtering which restricts the engine and reduces efficiency. You live in cloud cookoo land I am afraid.
      Looking at efficiency is the wrong way of looking at CO2 reduction. Bio-fuels and synthetic fuels can replace a significant part of the fossil fuels. ICE cars don't need to become radically more efficient for that to work. Also filtering CO2 won't do you any good. Where do you store it? I guess you mean NOx and HCs but these are already dealt with using EGR and catalytic converters for decades.

      Besides that: which part of 'material shortage' and 'too expensive' didn't you understand? It all comes down to costs for the owner. Say your government taxes you out of your car. How do you get to your job? Or are you even going to work if that means having less money to spend compared to living of a social security check? That is the reality. The numbers of the Dutch government report clearly indicate that the people with the least income are getting hit the hardest when taxes on CO2 emitting activities are raised.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 15, 2019, 11:16:44 am
      Ergo: the majority of the cars sold in the Netherlands will not be electric for at least the next decade.

      Only thing I don't trust with that statement is I think it's overly optomistic.
      Predictions I have seen say the majority of vehicles won't be electric for 20 years at least.

      It's going to vary by country. You need the infrastructure for starters and that is a long term government plan. In the UK at least we are terrible at infrastructure because every government kicks the can down the road for the next administration or they privatise it at which point the multitude of private providers argue about who should pay and nothing gets done. In the UK we are still arguing about who pays for smart meters. 20 years ago Italy's nationalised electric company just installed them.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 15, 2019, 11:18:17 am
      You know that is a contradiction in itself. Sure there is a market for electric cars but it isn't infinite hence the reluctance. The Dutch government just released calculations on which future government decissions to reduce CO2 emissions are going to be based. Two important conclusions about electric cars: the necessary production volumes cannot be achieved due to material shortages and people can't pay for electric cars. Ergo: the majority of the cars sold in the Netherlands will not be electric for at least the next decade. The same will apply for every European country so rest assured that the majority of the cars being produced for sale in Europe will be ICEs. So any significant reduction in CO2 emission from cars will not be from using electric cars but have to be achieved through optimising ICEs and switching to renewable fuels.
      Why do you keep banging on about ICE's becoming more efficient like they are new developing technology? they will never be efficient, the clue is in the name. The motive power is a byproduct of combustion. If you want o reduce CO2 emissions you have to add filtering which restricts the engine and reduces efficiency. You live in cloud cookoo land I am afraid.
      Looking at efficiency is the wrong way of looking at CO2 reduction. Bio-fuels and synthetic fuels can replace a significant part of the fossil fuels. ICE cars don't need to become radically more efficient for that to work. Also filtering CO2 won't do you any good. Where do you store it? I guess you mean NOx and HCs but these are already dealt with using EGR and catalytic converters for decades.

      Besides that: which part of 'material shortage' and 'too expensive' didn't you understand? It all comes down to costs for the owner. Say your government taxes you out of your car. How do you get to your job? Or are you even going to work if that means having less money to spend compared to living of a social security check? That is the reality. The numbers of the Dutch government report clearly indicate that the people with the least income are getting hit the hardest when taxes on CO2 emitting activities are raised.

      ICE's burn fuel, burning fuel makes CO2. How are you planning to spirit it away?
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 15, 2019, 11:22:23 am
      Plants turn CO2 into hydrocarbons. Use these to make fuel from and the circle is closed. Bio-fuels are already a very large contributor to renewables. BTW the Dutch government just announced not to make using an ICE vehicle more expensive.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 15, 2019, 11:39:40 am

      Why do you keep banging on about ICE's becoming more efficient like they are new developing technology? they will never be efficient, the clue is in the name.

      By the same token i'd ask why you endlessly prattle on about efficency.
      Efficiency isn't going to sell shit in the show room. It's not about the best or most efficent or the cleanest, it's about what people like.
      Make the most efficent car ever built but if people don't like it..... they will still be driving their old ICE's and sending the green/ EV zealots into a conniption.


      Quote
      If you want o reduce CO2 emissions

      Nope, couldn't give a flying damn about it or the whole Globull warming scam and all the C02 bullshit.
      The reality is, neither do Big biz and gubbermints other than where they can make a buck out of it.
       C02 reduction is a fantasy and while there will be lots of guilt tripping and lip service paid to it, the reality is it will increase not decrease no matter how much sooking and crying is done over it. 

      If we are on the road to damnation, may as well make the most of the ride before we go over the cliff! 

      I'm living up to that. Putting in a nice new fire pit in the back yard. Got started on it today and should have it finished in a few weeks.
      Don't want to frig around with wood, this one will be oil burning so it can run all night and I never have to stoke it up or anything else.
      Got onto a supply of engine oil which I don't like burning in the vehicle or engines but will save the veg oil for that and just burn the WMO in the fire pit.  Should be a nice warm winter outside entertaining and I predict my FF fueled fire will make not one scrap of difference to the air quality.

      Probably get a load of the typical whingers on my YT channel sooking about it though. Not to worry, any view and any comment is a good one.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: DougSpindler on March 15, 2019, 02:15:51 pm
      Plants turn CO2 into hydrocarbons.

      Is this what you were taught in school?  Or were you smoking pot in your chemistry and biology classes?  Do you live in a country where you only taught bull shit?

      Do you even know what a hydrocarbon is?  Were you not taught about the Calvin Cycle in school?  Silly boy, plants use light energy, water and C02 to produce sugar and oxygen and energy.  If it were not for plants producing O2 you would be dead.

      Crud man, when will you stop posting FALSE and incorrect information.

      Stop with the biofuel misinformation.  Over 100 of your country's scientists say it's a FALSE solution.
      Why do you keep believing and posting marketing hype BS and ignore the science? 


      Dutch scientists call crop-based biofuels a ‘false solution’

      The use of crop-based biofuels is a ‘false solution’ to climate problems, the scientists say, adding that: ‘we urgently implore you to acknowledge that blending food crops into fuel causes severe damage to climate, nature and communities.’ They point out that research carried out for the European Commission shows the mixture leads to increased greenhouse gas emissions and that biodiesel from food crops emits on average 1.8 times as much carbon dioxide as fossil fuels. This increases to three times more in the case of biodiesel made from palm oil.

      https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2017/12/dutch-scientists-call-crop-based-biofuels-a-false-solution/ (https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2017/12/dutch-scientists-call-crop-based-biofuels-a-false-solution/)
       
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: nctnico on March 15, 2019, 02:42:55 pm
      Plants turn CO2 into hydrocarbons.

      Is this what you were taught in school?  Or were you smoking pot in your chemistry and biology classes?  Do you live in a country where you only taught bull shit?

      Do you even know what a hydrocarbon is?  Were you not taught about the Calvin Cycle in school?  Silly boy, plants use light energy, water and C02 to produce sugar and oxygen and energy.  If it were not for plants producing O2 you would be dead.

      Crud man, when will you stop posting FALSE and incorrect information.

      Stop with the biofuel misinformation.  Over 100 of your country's scientists say it's a FALSE solution.
      Why do you keep believing and posting marketing hype BS and ignore the science? 


      Dutch scientists call crop-based biofuels a ‘false solution’

      The use of crop-based biofuels is a ‘false solution’ to climate problems, the scientists say, adding that: ‘we urgently implore you to acknowledge that blending food crops into fuel causes severe damage to climate, nature and communities.’ They point out that research carried out for the European Commission shows the mixture leads to increased greenhouse gas emissions and that biodiesel from food crops emits on average 1.8 times as much carbon dioxide as fossil fuels. This increases to three times more in the case of biodiesel made from palm oil.

      https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2017/12/dutch-scientists-call-crop-based-biofuels-a-false-solution/ (https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2017/12/dutch-scientists-call-crop-based-biofuels-a-false-solution/)
      If you would have read and understood my earlier posts then you'd know I fully agree with that when it comes to using palm oil which the article is about. The article isn't about bio-fuels in general. You should have noted that instead of making such a broad statement that it is false.
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: george80 on March 15, 2019, 02:45:04 pm
      Stop with the biofuel misinformation.  Over 100 of your country's scientists say it's a FALSE solution.

      Better stop with the unreliables to save the world BS then too.
      Been worked out they are never going to be able to generate the amount of power needed and building more is just sending the world down the shitter.

      https://youtu.be/N-yALPEpV4w
      Title: Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
      Post by: Simon on March 15, 2019, 02:47:16 pm
      this thread has become a waste of server resources!