Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 270920 times)

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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #600 on: May 12, 2018, 03:12:50 pm »
The Pacific Northwest is just a very small portion of the world we live in.
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy. People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses. Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.

So what's the answer?  Solar, wind and hydro in 30 years will at best exstimates only provide 30% of the electricty we need.  Where's the ohter 70% going to come from?  And was we know solar and wind aren't that greate either as England, United States and Germany all had to burn more fossil fuel due to a period of no wind and clouds.

That just leave fossil fuels and nuclear.  Wiht Next Gen nuclear being the ultimate solution.

Or does anyone have a better idea?  If so, it's not been presented.




 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #601 on: May 12, 2018, 03:21:49 pm »
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy.
For the 4 states that make up the PNW, over 50% of electricity production is from hydro as of 2010 it was 58% So more than only “a good chunk”.   

Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.

Quote
Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.
Worldwide, hydo accounts for about 20% of electricity production currently.

I would argue that, while it may not be possible to dramatically increase hydro capacity, if there is ever to be a world were fossil fuels  play little or no role in societal energy use, hydro will have to be the dominant source of power. Therefore total worldwide power consumption will need to be much less (as will world population!) This is barring some as of yet discovered energy source of course.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 03:24:04 pm by mtdoc »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #602 on: May 12, 2018, 03:28:21 pm »
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #603 on: May 12, 2018, 03:37:21 pm »
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year
Yes, under development - as they have been for decades... EVs are here now - and adoption is growing exponentially.

Quote
At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
it will be at future moments as wel...  :P
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #604 on: May 12, 2018, 03:43:10 pm »
So what's the answer?

There isn’t one.

It’s a predicament. The world has physical limits. Who’da thunk?
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #605 on: May 12, 2018, 03:46:05 pm »
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy.
For the 4 states that make up the PNW, over 50% of electricity production is from hydro as of 2010 it was 58% So more than only “a good chunk”.   

Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.

Quote
Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.
Worldwide, hydo accounts for about 20% of electricity production currently.

I would argue that, while it may not be possible to dramatically increase hydro capacity, if there is ever to be a world were fossil fuels while play little or no role in societal energy use, hydro will have to be the dominant source of power. Therefore total worldwide power consumption will need to be much less (as will world population!) This is barring some as of yet discovered energy source of course.

You can argue with the facts all you like, but that won't change the facts.  Not sure why you are so fixated with the hydro power in the PNW.  I live in California and you are connected to our grid.  Just as some of your electrons make there way to us, some of our electrons generated by fossil fuels, wind, geo-thermal, solar and nuclear are making their way back to you.

The question your not answering is what will the rest of the world do?  We don't have anymore lakes or rivers to generate hydro power from, so where is the rest going to come from?

How do you propose we use less electricity?  Are you willing to ride a bike instead of driving an electric car?  And would you be willing to wash your clothes by hand instead of using an electric powered washing machine?

How do you propose to limit or reduce world population?  Would you volunteer to be the first to go?  China tried something like this not to long ago.  You might want to take a look to see how it worked out.  Or are you proposing another WWI or WWII type event or a flu pandemic to decrease the world's population?

Any idea what electricity has done for people?  It weren't for electricity this man would never have learned English and become a doctor. 

https://youtu.be/6sqnptxlCcw








 
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 03:58:03 pm by DougSpindler »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #606 on: May 12, 2018, 03:56:27 pm »
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.

Have you done the math on bio-fuels?  If all of land in California, Texas, Iowa and Kansas were used to produce biofuel for one year any idea what we could power with that?  We could power all of the cars in California for just about one month.

Or another way to look at biofuels is like this.  For every mile a car is powered with biofuels a plot of land one mile long and six miles wide would be needed.

Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.

 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #607 on: May 12, 2018, 04:13:18 pm »
So what's the answer?

There isn’t one.

It’s a predicament. The world has physical limits. Who’da thunk?
\

See that answer is a no answer.  It's kind of like a sinking ship and filling up a lifeboat.  If we continue what we are doing it's not going to end well.  There are are a limited number of people who can fit in a lifeboat before it is overloaded and would sink too.  What we need to do is something a bit different such as use the resources we have, (the sinking ship) to build additional before it sinks.

That's what we are doing.

Solar and Wind - Is going to help a little.

Hydro- We've built all we can.

Coal/fossil fuels - Word when there were a lot less people in the world and we didn't use very much.  But not working for us now.

Nuclear - We would be in much better shape, but people have made some very stupid mistakes.  But still, we have 500 years of
nuclear fuel we don't know what to do with.  And it's going to be with us for millions upon millions of years.  (But I won't.)

Then there's Next Gen Nuclear - No long lived radioactive waste.  It's renewable, green, non-polluting and we have oceans filled with fuel.  Seems like the way to go to me.

 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #608 on: May 12, 2018, 04:21:20 pm »
EVs are here now - and adoption is growing exponentially.
Yes, they are.  The dealership where I purchased my electric cars said sales of electric cars have been growing exponentially as well.
Of the 500 cars they sell per year EV's have had the fastest growth.
In 2015 they sold 1
2016 they sold 2
and in 2018 the exceeded this exponential growth rate and sold 5.

You are absolutely right, EV sales are experiencing exponential sales.  Don't you love those figures?

« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 04:23:29 pm by DougSpindler »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #609 on: May 12, 2018, 04:34:03 pm »
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient on average so with more efficient cars it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 04:35:44 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #610 on: May 12, 2018, 04:48:44 pm »
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient so with more efficient vehicles it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.

I would agree it would be possible if we could get the automobile manufactures to produce cars to get 10,000 miles per gallon.
But we know that's not possible.  Just how much more fuel efficient can the car manufactures make the cars?  Have you done the math calculations?  Modern cars aren't poluting like in they use to and the onboard computers enerure the fuel is being burned with 99.9999% efficinecy.  So where's this extra energy going to come from to move the car?

I would like to see your calcuations for  agricultural leftovers being able to supply neearly 100% of the US's fuel needs.  Please post.





 



 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #611 on: May 12, 2018, 04:52:49 pm »
Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.
I don't think so. Bio-fuels are also under heavy development and the production increases every year. And no, bio-fuels don't mean less area for growing food.

At this moment it is impossible to predict the future.
Have you done the math on bio-fuels?
Don’t believe me, do the math and see for yourself.
I did the math based on Poet-DSM's numbers. It turns out that the agricultural leftovers from the land currently in use for growing crops can be turned into enough bio-fuel to supply half the fuel used by the US. Also the current cars in the US aren't very efficient so with more efficient vehicles it would be very possible to supply nearly 100% of the fuel the US needs from bio-fuel using technology which exists today.
I would agree it would be possible if we could get the automobile manufactures to produce cars to get 10,000 miles per gallon.

I would like to see your calcuations for  agricultural leftovers being able to supply neearly 100% of the US's fuel needs.  Please post.
There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 04:54:23 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #612 on: May 12, 2018, 05:02:32 pm »
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy.
For the 4 states that make up the PNW, over 50% of electricity production is from hydro as of 2010 it was 58% So more than only “a good chunk”.   

Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.

Quote
Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.
Worldwide, hydo accounts for about 20% of electricity production currently.

I would argue that, while it may not be possible to dramatically increase hydro capacity, if there is ever to be a world were fossil fuels while play little or no role in societal energy use, hydro will have to be the dominant source of power. Therefore total worldwide power consumption will need to be much less (as will world population!) This is barring some as of yet discovered energy source of course.

You can argue with the facts all you like, but that won't change the facts. 
Huh?? I'm not arguing with facts.  I have been presenting facts. (and providing references to support them).

Quote
Not sure why you are so fixated with the hydro power in the PNW.
   I'm not fixated on anything. I was simply presenting facts about PNW hydro that contradicted yours and others unsupported unfactual statements.

Your style seems to be this: make a whole bunch of broad statements - many unsupported by facts - and see what sticks. When someone presents facts that contradict some of your statements - then either misrepresent their views or move on to another broad set of statements - which may or may not be true - then again see what sticks and see what gets a response from someone....  It's becoming borderline trollish.

« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 05:05:52 pm by mtdoc »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #613 on: May 12, 2018, 05:03:32 pm »

There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.

Friend you said, "I did the math."  But in reality you really didn't do the math calculation you said you did because you are pawing it off to some other web site.  If you didn't do the math, how do you know they are correct? 
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #614 on: May 12, 2018, 05:05:44 pm »
Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy.
For the 4 states that make up the PNW, over 50% of electricity production is from hydro as of 2010 it was 58% So more than only “a good chunk”.   

Quote
People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses.
I agree, but a big part of doing that would be substituting “clean” electricity for fossil fuel use - the biggest case being vehicles - the topic of this thread.

Quote
Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.
Worldwide, hydo accounts for about 20% of electricity production currently.

I would argue that, while it may not be possible to dramatically increase hydro capacity, if there is ever to be a world were fossil fuels while play little or no role in societal energy use, hydro will have to be the dominant source of power. Therefore total worldwide power consumption will need to be much less (as will world population!) This is barring some as of yet discovered energy source of course.

You can argue with the facts all you like, but that won't change the facts. 
Huh?? I'm not arguing with facts.  I have been presenting facts. (and providing references to support them).

Quote
Not sure why you are so fixated with the hydro power in the PNW.
   I'm not fixated on anything. I was simply presenting facts about PNW hydro that contradicted yours and other unsupported unfactual statements.

Oh, it appeared like you were saying because you get about 50% of your electricity from hydro (and we get some of that too) that's what the rest of the world should do.  So help me out here, what's your point?
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #615 on: May 12, 2018, 05:09:18 pm »

Oh, it appeared like you were saying because you get about 50% of your electricity from hydro (and we get some of that too) that's what the rest of the world should do.  So help me out here, what's your point?

No, my point was the opposite. Read my response again.  I'll repeat what I added to my post above:

Your style seems to be this: make a whole bunch of broad statements - many unsupported by facts - and see what sticks. When someone presents facts that contradict some of your statements - then either misrepresent their views or move on to another broad set of statements - which may or may not be true - then again see what sticks and see what gets a response from someone....  It's becoming borderline trollish.
 

Offline Fungus

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #616 on: May 12, 2018, 05:15:02 pm »
Or does anyone have a better idea?  If so, it's not been presented.

There is no perfect solution.

Nuclear is about as good as it gets but most people are against it because they think "nuclear power" means those old 1960's nuclear weapon production plants. Good luck changing that mindset.

Wind/solar is good but it needs to be paired with a good storage system which we currently don't have. It could also go very wrong if we have the wrong sort of weather for a few weeks and no backup plan.

Tidal power is very reliable but not realistic on a large scale.

Geothermal is good if you're lucky enough to have lots of volcanoes around, but that's not everywhere.

Coal gas works but it's slowly wrecking the planet, we need to move away from that.

Anything I missed?

Best answer: As much solar/wind power as we can practically install and nuclear as backup.

(maybe coal/gas as backup in the short term and nuclear plans for the future).

No private comapny's going to build the nuclear stations under those conditions though so unless we get governments to do it we have to go back down the big snake all the way to square one.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 05:23:14 pm by Fungus »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #617 on: May 12, 2018, 05:16:00 pm »

There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.

Friend you said, "I did the math."  But in reality you really didn't do the math calculation you said you did because you are pawing it off to some other web site.  If you didn't do the math, how do you know they are correct?
I did the math long ago and remembered the result. I showed you the sources I used so you can verify by yourself.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #618 on: May 12, 2018, 05:17:05 pm »

Oh, it appeared like you were saying because you get about 50% of your electricity from hydro (and we get some of that too) that's what the rest of the world should do.  So help me out here, what's your point?

No, my point was the opposite. Read my response again.  I'll repeat what I added to my post above:

Your style seems to be this: make a whole bunch of broad statements - many unsupported by facts - and see what sticks. When someone presents facts that contradict some of your statements - then either misrepresent their views or move on to another broad set of statements - which may or may not be true - then again see what sticks and see what gets a response from someone....  It's becoming borderline trollish.

Fair enough.  I'm just asking people to provide some credible evidence to support their claims.
For example the last poster stated he did the math and found ag biomass in the US could provide 100% of the US's fule needs.
When I asked him to share his cacalutations he then refers to a web stie with has no such calculations.
www.-dsm.com  Instead this is marketing matererial so farmers might be able to make a few extra bucks.

Feel free to chalage me on any claim I have made.    I might be wrong and well admit it.  But only if crediable evidence can be presented.  (And please don't waste anyone's time with "Free Energy" or anyouther BS that viloates the law of physics.)






 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #619 on: May 12, 2018, 05:21:56 pm »

There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.

Friend you said, "I did the math."  But in reality you really didn't do the math calculation you said you did because you are pawing it off to some other web site.  If you didn't do the math, how do you know they are correct?
I did the math long ago and remembered the result. I showed you the sources I used so you can verify by yourself.

Intersting that UC Berkeley scientests calcaulation are off by a magnitude that's over a million orders from your calculations.  Any possibility you made a mistake?  UC Berkeley scientests calculations have been peer reviewed and found to be accuarate.  Have your calcuations been peer reviewed?  Or have the calcaulation on the web site you provided been peer reviewed?  Or could it just be marketing BS?


 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #620 on: May 12, 2018, 05:54:55 pm »
So what's the answer?  Solar, wind and hydro in 30 years will at best exstimates only provide 30% of the electricty we need.
That will probably be around two orders of magnitude more than next gen nuclear.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #621 on: May 12, 2018, 06:00:21 pm »
So what's the answer?  Solar, wind and hydro in 30 years will at best exstimates only provide 30% of the electricty we need.
That will probably be around two orders of magnitude more than next gen nuclear.

Do you know how much of Europe is expected to be powered by the one Next Gen Nuclear power plant being built in France?  And were you live aren't you getting about 30% of your electricity from nuclear power plants in France?
 

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #622 on: May 12, 2018, 07:13:58 pm »
Then there's Next Gen Nuclear - No long lived radioactive waste.  It's renewable, green, non-polluting and we have oceans filled with fuel.  Seems like the way to go to me.
Is there a fusion reactor (besides the sun) that's actually commercially viable for power generation?
Just how much more fuel efficient can the car manufactures make the cars?  Have you done the math calculations?  Modern cars aren't poluting like in they use to and the onboard computers enerure the fuel is being burned with 99.9999% efficinecy.  So where's this extra energy going to come from to move the car?
Most car engines are only about 25% efficient, with the best commercial designs topping out at around 40%. The real gains are from making the car itself more aerodynamic, of which if we exclude plug ins, the best one on the US market - Prius Eco - does 58 MPG highway. GM made a few EV1 hybrid prototypes 20 years ago that have outdone that at 80 MPG. They had a winning design, but let their biggest competitor take the market...
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #623 on: May 12, 2018, 07:25:46 pm »
There is no need for 10,000 miles to the gallon (don't be silly). Just cars which run in the ballpark of 25km on one liter. You can find the numbers (conversion rate and amount of material per surface area) on poet-dsm.com and according to Google there is over 1 Billion acres of land used for agriculture in the US.

Friend you said, "I did the math."  But in reality you really didn't do the math calculation you said you did because you are pawing it off to some other web site.  If you didn't do the math, how do you know they are correct?
I did the math long ago and remembered the result. I showed you the sources I used so you can verify by yourself.
Intersting that UC Berkeley scientests calcaulation are off by a magnitude that's over a million orders from your calculations.  Any possibility you made a mistake?  UC Berkeley scientests calculations have been peer reviewed and found to be accuarate.  Have your calcuations been peer reviewed?  Or have the calcaulation on the web site you provided been peer reviewed?  Or could it just be marketing BS?
That depends on who has been paying the UC Berkely scientists and what the exact question was they where seeking an answer for. On the other hand there is not much reason to doubt the numbers Poet-DSM has put on their website. Poet-DSM has invested several tens of millions of dollars and DSM is a major player in high-tech chemicals (a multi billions dollar annual revenue). All in all I think they know a little bit more about their bio-fuel than some desk jockeys in a dusty office. Also keep in mind that shareholders and the authorities won't like it when the numbers turn out to be way off so there is also a legal reason not to fudge too much with the numbers.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 07:28:15 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #624 on: May 12, 2018, 08:06:08 pm »
Do you know how much of Europe is expected to be powered by the one Next Gen Nuclear power plant being built in France?
I also know what liquid sodium does better and more often than help maintain good uptime in a nuclear plant ...
 


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