When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[f4eru]

Take a look at Bill Gates and family trip to Africa.  They lived with the locals.

I wouldn't count on Bill gates to tell how people live down the societal ladder....

[DougSpindler]

Take a look at Bill Gates and family trip to Africa.  They lived with the locals.

I wouldn't count on Bill gates to tell how people live down the societal ladder....

And why is that?

[NiHaoMike]

That is the wrong article. The formula is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Conversion_to_MPGe which boils down to using the average fuel consumption for all cars which in the US is particulary bad. MPGe has been invented to make EVs look better but it still is a fantasy unit.

Please explain where the average fuel economy comes to play in the calculation?

[DougSpindler]

I wouldn't count on Bill gates to tell how people live down the societal ladder....

And why is that?

[boffin]

So while everyone is arguing over the next great thing, I'll drive my electric car, powered by a utility that is 90% hydro-electric. Not everyone has that option, but given I do, it seems like a good plan.

You are one person....  What about the rest of the almost 8 billion people in the world?    And where does the other 10% come from?  Would you be okay with driving your car 90% of the time you need it and walking the rest?  Probably not.

There are better transistors than the 2N3904 and better regulators than the 7805 these days as well.

I really don't understand why you appear to be against ANY progress. Has the world left you that jaded? 

[DougSpindler]

My ICE can get 100 MPG every day of the week.  And not only that I can get my ICE car to move without using any gas.  It's got to be true because I'm saying so and it's on the Internet, right?  And I can make the same modification to your car.  Just meet me at the top of a mountain and I will prove to you it's possible.

Preposterous! 

We can even do it with your car.  Just meet me at the top of one of the mountains where I live and I will show you.  THe entire way dawn your car will get over 100 mpg.

Chieldish argumentation behavior! How old are you? 

Just responding with a silly answer to the person who responded with a silly solution.

[nctnico]

That is the wrong article. The formula is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_per_gallon_gasoline_equivalent#Conversion_to_MPGe which boils down to using the average fuel consumption for all cars which in the US is particulary bad. MPGe has been invented to make EVs look better but it still is a fantasy unit.

Please explain where the average fuel economy comes to play in the calculation?

Read the fomula: All miles travelled divided by all fuel used. That is the average fuel economy.

[f4eru]

And why is that?

Because he has no clue. It's like asking an Eskimo how to survive in the Sahara. He may have visited the place, but can't integrate the culture.
Today, the majority of people on the African continent live in huge cities. They don't live like you think any more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_Africa
They have water in pipes, electrons in wires, cars as everyday shared taxis and as status symbols once they become wealthier, food brought by trucks.
The problems have moved, and are moving very very fast. Infrastructure grows with cities, mostly.
What's lacking is not water, food, or cars. They have plenty of that usually. What's lacking is jobs. Send them some!
Go and look for yourself instead of relying on tales from rich people.

[Fungus]

Around here those new electric scooters are taking over the world

Where is that?

Valencia, Spain.

It's very flat, we have quite a good metro system to get you close to where you're going, parking in the city is a nightmare. These are a good idea.

[Kjelt]

Yes good idea, here in Holland you see more people that have to travel >10km for work buying electric bikes.
Below <10km normal bikes remain very popular.
The biggest nightmare however is very old people on fast electric bikes 

[NiHaoMike]

Read the fomula: All miles travelled divided by all fuel used. That is the average fuel economy.

I interpret that as the total energy used to drive that distance. Which makes sense, although a car that has the option of exclusively using one of several energy sources should have a separate rating for each one.

[nctnico]

Read the fomula: All miles travelled divided by all fuel used. That is the average fuel economy.

I interpret that as the total energy used to drive that distance. Which makes sense, although a car that has the option of exclusively using one of several energy sources should have a separate rating for each one.

The problem with MPGe is that it is an half arsed attempt to create some kind of number for comparison. The problem however is that electricity isn't fuel so the MPGe number is bogus when it comes to what really counts: CO2 emissions. Perhaps the number is also influenced by politics trying to hide the fact that electricity in the US doesn't have to be clean at all and in reality EVs may even cause more polution compared to efficient ICE base cars.

Look at the SO2 (Sulfur dioxide) emissions in the west part of the USA:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=-84.95,25.16,408

And how it gets there:
https://www.epa.gov/so2-pollution/sulfur-dioxide-basics#what%20is%20so2

The only place worse on earth seems to be China.

[DougSpindler]

And why is that?

Because he has no clue. It's like asking an Eskimo how to survive in the Sahara. He may have visited the place, but can't integrate the culture.
Today, the majority of people on the African continent live in huge cities. They don't live like you think any more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_Africa
They have water in pipes, electrons in wires, cars as everyday shared taxis and as status symbols once they become wealthier, food brought by trucks.
The problems have moved, and are moving very very fast. Infrastructure grows with cities, mostly.
What's lacking is not water, food, or cars. They have plenty of that usually. What's lacking is jobs. Send them some!
Go and look for yourself instead of relying on tales from rich people.

Just because one lives in a city doesn't mean they have water or electricity.  Do a bit of research instead offering your beliefs.


Tales from this rich turn out to be far more accurate then what you beleive. 
You ask about jobs, why not chickens?  And after these folks get enough chickens they might have your job.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

The day the oil ends, we are going to have a very bad time. We are living very very well much better than ever before thanks to the fossil fuels.

Now I'm going to drive 15km to my favourite cafetería to have a coffee, and after that when I come back will order some things  from China just because I can, it's cheap, it's easy, and don't want to walk to the shop around the corner. Huh. Unbelievable.

Our sons may not be so lucky...

[f4eru]

There's no "day oil ends"
it's just going to fade away very very slowly by becoming less and less useful, less economically interesting to use vs alternatives.
For plastics, it will always be used, but as a transport and heating fuel, where the majority ends up today, it'll go down, and the price is gonna be very volatile when demand and supply adjusts each other.

The big question is: how will the governments compensate the loss of transportation fuel taxes ?
http://industry.eiu.com/asset_images/1622440146.gif
Many countries have over 50% tax on fuel, and that can represent a very significant part of a country's GDP...

That fuel tax is currently not applied on airplane fuel, heating fuel, offroad and agricultural fuel, plastics,...
It'll probably have to partially shift to those other uses of oil.

[mtdoc]

Here's todays doom and gloom report.  You're welcome.

Jack Albert, a systems engineer,  and his colleagues think that the best case scenario is that the earth could "sustain" 50 million humans living in a civilization comparable to our current one for several hundred more years.  It would need to be centered around 3 population centers, each centered in an area with good hydro electric resources, specifcially, the Pacific NW US, China, Paraguay/Uraguay region.  Once the hydro reservoirs silt up, well then....

He gets a bit hypomanic in the podcast interview linked above, but it's well worth listening to IMO. The video below provides a visual demonstration of the crux of his argument.

It's not an idea many are able or willing to entertain...

[DougSpindler]

Here's todays doom and gloom report.  You're welcome.

Jack Albert, a systems engineer,  and his colleagues think that the best case scenario is that the earth could "sustain" 50 million humans living in a civilization comparable to our current one for several hundred more years.  It would need to be centered around 3 population centers, each centered in an area with good hydro electric resources, specifcially, the Pacific NW US, China, Paraguay/Uraguay region.  Once the hydro reservoirs silt up, well then....

He gets a bit hypomanic in the podcast interview linked above, but it's well worth listening to IMO. The video below provides a visual demonstration of the crux of his argument.

It's not an idea many are able or willing to entertain...

The guy in the video has left out quite a few variables which would dramatically alter the outcome.  The guy isn't even using any historical researched data.

Take a look at some real world data and projections.  Quite a different story.


https://youtu.be/usdJgEwMinM

[coppice]

The Pacific Northwest is just a very small portion of the world we live in.

Even in the Paciific NorthWest hydro is only producing a good chunk of the electrical energy. People keep focussing on electricity, when the need is to displace fossil fuels from all their uses. Hydro has a very small part to play in that big picture.

So what's the answer?  Solar, wind and hydro in 30 years will at best exstimates only provide 30% of the electricty we need.  Where's the ohter 70% going to come from?  And was we know solar and wind aren't that greate either as England, United States and Germany all had to burn more fossil fuel due to a period of no wind and clouds.

That just leave fossil fuels and nuclear.  Wiht Next Gen nuclear being the ultimate solution.

Or does anyone have a better idea?  If so, it's not been presented.

A Western European uses about 125kWh per day, when you take into account all their energy requirements - electricity, heating, transport, food production, and the manufacture of all the goods they buy and use. An American uses rather more, and some equally developed places, like HK and Singapore, use about half that. Its a lot of energy to obtain from renewable resources, if the 7+ billion people currently alive are going to aspire to a decent way of life.

[f4eru]

A decent way of life, or a decadent way of life ?
Europe, US, are in the second part, today.
Those civilisations will fall and fail over time.

[Fungus]

if the 7+ billion people currently alive are going to aspire to a decent way of life.

If by 'decent' you mean leaving every light and TV set in the house permanently on and the air-con set to "arctic" in summer and "Sahara" in winter.

Most people could use a lot less energy if they gave the slightest damn about it.

(and insulated their homes properly).

[DougSpindler]

if the 7+ billion people currently alive are going to aspire to a decent way of life.

If by 'decent' you mean leaving every light and TV set in the house permanently on and the air-con set to "arctic" in summer and "Sahara" in winter.

Most people could use a lot less energy if they gave the slightest damn about it.

(and insulated their homes properly).

For some people, the cost of insulating a home is far more expensive than the cost of the electricity.  That's the case for me here in California.

I think you need to look at some world statistics on electricity usage, conserving will do very little.

I would suggest you watch this video to understand energy usage in the world, past, present and future.





   

[nctnico]

A Western European uses about 125kWh per day, when you take into account all their energy requirements

True but the sun blasts a multiple of the amount of energy we use every day onto the earth's surface. On (global) average about 160W per square meter each day. What is keeping us from using that is political instability. Not technical inability. And yes, nuclear is also an option which should receive way more funding.

[DougSpindler]

A Western European uses about 125kWh per day, when you take into account all their energy requirements

True but the sun blasts a multiple of the amount of energy we use every day onto the earth's surface. On (global) average about 160W per square meter each day. What is keeping us from using that is political instability. Not technical inability. And yes, nuclear is also an option which should receive way more funding.

Yes on average about 160W per square meter each day.  But you do realize that if you want food, plants consume quite a bit of that energy.  And if you don't want to live day time in the dark we need some of that energy as visible light.  And let's not forget some of that energy provides us with heat.

So here's the real question.....  How much of that 160W per square meter can we actullay convert to electricty and still have enough to grow food and for warmth?

+1 for Next Gen Nuclear

[Marco]

The guy isn't even using any historical researched data.
Take a look at some real world data and projections.  Quite a different story.

Historical trends hold, until they don't, which inevitably happens. Physics are relatively constant by comparison ... so I'd prefer a counter-argument based on the latter.

I'm not opposed to the "technology will solve it" argument, but in that case we could really do with less climate change alarmism. We're already putting all our hopes on future tech any way, just throw something more it will have to fix on the heap.

[nctnico]

So here's the real question.....  How much of that 160W per square meter can we actullay convert to electricty and still have enough to grow food and for warmth?

I did the math on that a long time ago and the amount of energy we need world wide is like 1 millionth or even 10 times less than what the sun provides. Another way to prove this in a less scientific way is that if our energy usage was significant compared to what the sun provides we would be heating up the atmosphere ourselves but that isn't happening.