Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 33776 times)

ez24 and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3290
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1275 on: July 12, 2018, 03:59:33 pm »
Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?

Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 14450
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1276 on: July 12, 2018, 05:15:00 pm »
Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway. Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel. You are grasping straws here  ;) Anyway, this has been discussed before.

The way I see it bio-fuel currently has the least technical obstacles to greatly reduce and eventually replace the use of fossil fuels for cars, trucks and airplanes.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 05:16:58 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 489
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1277 on: July 12, 2018, 07:15:32 pm »
Why nor hear from an expert?


 

Offline DougSpindler

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 489
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1278 on: July 12, 2018, 07:18:12 pm »
How much oil is left in the world?  Let’s hear from an expert who has no agenda otther than sharing the facts.


 

Offline coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3409
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1279 on: July 12, 2018, 07:45:20 pm »
Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway. Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel. You are grasping straws here  ;) Anyway, this has been discussed before.

The way I see it bio-fuel currently has the least technical obstacles to greatly reduce and eventually replace the use of fossil fuels for cars, trucks and airplanes.
If you want to see the obstacles, perhaps you could look into why the earlier generations of bio-fuels didn't use plant residue. I mean, it the obvious thing, isn't it? Get fuel from these mountains of waste, rather than starve people in poor countries by driving the price of grain through the roof. Surely that would be the first step? It wasn't, and not without cause.
 

Offline DougSpindler

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 489
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1280 on: July 12, 2018, 07:56:24 pm »
Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway. Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel. You are grasping straws here  ;) Anyway, this has been discussed before.

The way I see it bio-fuel currently has the least technical obstacles to greatly reduce and eventually replace the use of fossil fuels for cars, trucks and airplanes.
If you want to see the obstacles, perhaps you could look into why the earlier generations of bio-fuels didn't use plant residue. I mean, it the obvious thing, isn't it? Get fuel from these mountains of waste, rather than starve people in poor countries by driving the price of grain through the roof. Surely that would be the first step? It wasn't, and not without cause.

Yes it would be nice, but only if weren’t for the law as of chemistry and physics it would be a fantastic solution as would word peace, feeding the hungry and ending homeless.  Only problem with bio is why one does the energy calculations it just dosn’t scale.  And then there’s the issue of cost.  How much are the bio-fuel producers paying the farmers per gallon of fuel being produced from what they have grown?   
 

Offline wraper

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 7826
  • Country: lv
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1281 on: July 12, 2018, 08:08:23 pm »
Why nor hear from an expert?
Expert in what? Speaking narrative on youtube? Not to say he said a lot of false information, at least in second video which I partially watched.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 14450
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1282 on: July 12, 2018, 08:15:36 pm »
Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway. Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel. You are grasping straws here  ;) Anyway, this has been discussed before.

The way I see it bio-fuel currently has the least technical obstacles to greatly reduce and eventually replace the use of fossil fuels for cars, trucks and airplanes.
If you want to see the obstacles, perhaps you could look into why the earlier generations of bio-fuels didn't use plant residue. I mean, it the obvious thing, isn't it? Get fuel from these mountains of waste, rather than starve people in poor countries by driving the price of grain through the roof. Surely that would be the first step? It wasn't, and not without cause.
It isn't easy to convert cellulose into ethanol so that is why the earlier methods are based on how beer & whine have been made for centuries. Nowadays over a dozen of companies are working on this and several have the first large scale factories which can convert cellulose into ethanol up & running. Basically the technology for third generation bio-fuels based on plant waste is out of the laboratory stage.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3409
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1283 on: July 12, 2018, 08:41:30 pm »
It isn't easy to convert cellulose into ethanol so that is why the earlier methods are based on how beer & whine have been made for centuries. Nowadays over a dozen of companies are working on this and several have the first large scale factories which can convert cellulose into ethanol up & running. Basically the technology for third generation bio-fuels based on plant waste is out of the laboratory stage.
Its actually really easy to convert cellulose to ethanol. That isn't the problem. The problem is the energy calculations. They need to put vast amounts of energy into the conversion. This is not an industry process efficiency issue. Its the basic chemistry, which won't change. So, you now have something that might make sense as a an energy storage mechanism for non-persistent renewable energy, like solar or wind, but you don't have a primary fuel.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 14450
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1284 on: July 12, 2018, 08:50:58 pm »
It isn't easy to convert cellulose into ethanol so that is why the earlier methods are based on how beer & whine have been made for centuries. Nowadays over a dozen of companies are working on this and several have the first large scale factories which can convert cellulose into ethanol up & running. Basically the technology for third generation bio-fuels based on plant waste is out of the laboratory stage.
Its actually really easy to convert cellulose to ethanol. That isn't the problem. The problem is the energy calculations. They need to put vast amounts of energy into the conversion. This is not an industry process efficiency issue.
There are several methods and I strongly doubt the modern plants will use an energy inefficient one. The DSM part of Poet-DSM has developed a special enzym to break down cellulose.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3409
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1285 on: July 12, 2018, 09:16:56 pm »
Its actually really easy to convert cellulose to ethanol. That isn't the problem. The problem is the energy calculations. They need to put vast amounts of energy into the conversion. This is not an industry process efficiency issue.
There are several methods and I strongly doubt the modern plants will use an energy inefficient one. The DSM part of Poet-DSM has developed a special enzym to break down cellulose.
You do understand enough chemistry to realise that you only get from ash to fuel by pumping in a lot of energy, don't you?

Various groups have developed enzymes and bacteria to make the conversion of plant waste to fuel more of a high throughput industrial process, but you can't beat the basic physics of chemical bond energies.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 14450
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1286 on: July 12, 2018, 10:48:15 pm »
I think the misunderstanding is at your side. Cellulose is a hydrogen / carbon chain just like Ethanol. You don't need to go from ash to fuel you just need to re-arrange a few atoms in a molecule. The energy present in the cellulose doesn't dissapear.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline wraper

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 7826
  • Country: lv
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1287 on: July 12, 2018, 11:40:23 pm »
I think the misunderstanding is at your side. Cellulose is a hydrogen / carbon chain just like Ethanol. You don't need to go from ash to fuel you just need to re-arrange a few atoms in a molecule. The energy present in the cellulose doesn't dissapear.
From what I have read, energy spent to produce needed enzymes is so high, whole process becomes energy negative.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 14450
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1288 on: July 13, 2018, 12:47:34 am »
I think the misunderstanding is at your side. Cellulose is a hydrogen / carbon chain just like Ethanol. You don't need to go from ash to fuel you just need to re-arrange a few atoms in a molecule. The energy present in the cellulose doesn't dissapear.
From what I have read, energy spent to produce needed enzymes is so high, whole process becomes energy negative.
But then it wouldn't make sense to build mass production factories. But the factories are there so I guess some have solved that problem.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3290
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1289 on: July 13, 2018, 01:58:52 am »
Why nor hear from an expert?

Expert in what? Making slick youtube videos to attract viewers?

He's certainly not an expert in world oil reserves.

The IEA and BP oil on the other hand  ARE and I've repeatedly posted links with their numbers which are in agreement with others which can be found many places on the net. You continue to ignore those links. Are you saying the IEA and BP are wrong?
 

Offline wraper

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 7826
  • Country: lv
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1290 on: July 13, 2018, 02:21:39 am »
Why nor hear from an expert?

Expert in what? Making slick youtube videos to attract viewers?

He's certainly not an expert in world oil reserves.

The IEA and BP oil on the other hand  ARE and I've repeatedly posted links with their numbers which are in agreement with others which can be found many places on the net. You continue to ignore those links. Are you saying the IEA and BP are wrong?
In second video at 4:45 he said that global renewable energy share is 2.8% which total BS and is order of magnitude off the real number.
 

Offline richard.cs

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 545
  • Country: gb
  • Electronics engineer from Southampton, UK.
    • Random stuff I've built (mostly non-electronic and fairly dated).
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1291 on: July 13, 2018, 02:32:22 am »
In second video at 4:45 he said that global renewable energy share is 2.8% which total BS and is order of magnitude off the real number.

I've not watched the video, was he talking about electrical generation mix (which is clearly >>2.8%) or total world energy use? The latter includes transportation (dominated by oil), steelmaking (dominated by coal) and cement manufacture (gas/oil/coal depending on kiln design) amongst others and 2.8% is rather more believable.
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3290
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1292 on: July 13, 2018, 02:38:49 am »
Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway.

No I'm not. You asked why fossil fuels would be needed for biofuels and I answered. Of course,  fossil fuels are also required to produce the current large food crop yields.

Quote
Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel.
  It's not? Please provide information on another way to produce large amounts of Nitrogen containing fertilizers or some other substitute.

Biofuels will likely play a small role in the future - they will have to if we want planes to fly. The military will and is seeing to that. This is despite the fact that at best the current large scale biofuel production has at best a net energy balance of 1.25 and requires large fossil fuel inputs.

Look, it's really not that complicated. The ONLY reason world population has been able to grow exponentially over the past 100 years is due to the discovery and utilization of millions of years of stored solar energy in the form of fossil fuels. We've almost exhausted the easily extracted portion of that resource and even much of the difficult to extract portion. It's a basic ecological principle that population is directly proportional to energy utilization.





The bottom line is we've far exceeded the carrying capacity of the planet and the only reason the overshoot has been able to proceed so far is due to the discovery and utilization of a FINITE high density energy store.

Thought the exact timing is unknowable, the likely outcome is clear:



Source of figures which is him.

« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 02:43:54 am by mtdoc »
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 14450
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1293 on: July 13, 2018, 02:51:03 am »
Why would you need fossil fuel to generate bio-fuel? Why can't a factory be powered from solar panels, wind turbines, hydro or nuclear?
Any crop yields large enough to come anywhere close to replacing gasoline and diesel requires large amounts of nitrogen based fertilizers produced using natural gas via the Haber-Bosch process. Large amounts of petrochemical based pesticides are also required. That 5-10% ethanol in your gasoline is largely just a farm subsidy - the fossil fuel inputs required to produce it are enormous.
You are ignoring the fact that the third generation bio-fuels will piggy back onto food production (and use other plant residu) so those fertilizers will be needed anyway.

No I'm not. You asked why fossil fuels would be needed for biofuels and I answered. Of course,  fossil fuels are also required to produce the current large food crop yields.

Quote
Besides that it isn't a given that fertilizers (which will be needed for food production) have to be made from fossil fuel.
  It's not? Please provide information on another way to produce large amounts of Nitrogen containing fertilizers or some other substitute.
Fertilizer is currently made from mostly natural gas but it can also be made from coal. But those are not the key ingredient. What is needed is Ammonia which can also be gotton from other places besides fossil fuels. First hit from Google:
http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2005/08/28-isnt-fertilizer-made-from-crude-oil.html
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3290
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1294 on: July 13, 2018, 03:08:04 am »
What is needed is Ammonia which can also be gotton from other places besides fossil fuels.

Duh. Of course. There are many sources of nitrogen. Of course plant growth does not require fossil fuel inputs. Duh.

The point is that large scale production of nitrogen fertilizer cannot be accomplished without large inputs of natural gas as well as petrochemical based insecticides, herbicides and fungacides.  And large scale mechanized farming and crop transport requires large oil (gasoline/diesel) inputs.

The "green revolution" that began in the 1940s and has allowed large increase in crop yields was only possible because of the utilization of large fossil fuel inputs.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 03:29:45 am by mtdoc »
 

Offline wraper

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 7826
  • Country: lv
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1295 on: July 13, 2018, 03:16:32 am »
In second video at 4:45 he said that global renewable energy share is 2.8% which total BS and is order of magnitude off the real number.

I've not watched the video, was he talking about electrical generation mix (which is clearly >>2.8%) or total world energy use? The latter includes transportation (dominated by oil), steelmaking (dominated by coal) and cement manufacture (gas/oil/coal depending on kiln design) amongst others and 2.8% is rather more believable.
Renewable energy is around 10% of primary energy consumption and around 20% of final energy consumption. All energy, not just electrical.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 14450
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1296 on: July 13, 2018, 03:30:54 am »
What is needed is Ammonia which can also be gotton from other places besides fossil fuels.

Duh. Of course. There are many sources of nitrogen. Of course plant growth does not require fossil fuel inputs. Duh.

The point is that large scale production of nitrogen fertilizer cannot be accomplished without large inputs of natural gas.  And large scale mechanized farming and crop transport requires large oil (gasoline/diesel) inputs.
But that still doesn't say it cannot be done without use of fossil fuels. Currently using natural gas is the most economic way to make fertilizer. But again: not the only way! The same goes for farming & transportation.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3290
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1297 on: July 13, 2018, 03:40:10 am »
But that still doesn't say it cannot be done without use of fossil fuels. Currently using natural gas is the most economic way to make fertilizer. But again: not the only way! The same goes for farming & transportation.

Of course. No one said it could not. You seem to be missing the point which is that producing biofuels on a scale large enough to replace gasoline and diesel at anywhere close to current use levels is impossible without large fossil fuel inputs.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 14450
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1298 on: July 13, 2018, 03:59:40 am »
But that still doesn't say it cannot be done without use of fossil fuels. Currently using natural gas is the most economic way to make fertilizer. But again: not the only way! The same goes for farming & transportation.
Of course. No one said it could not. You seem to be missing the point which is that producing biofuels on a scale large enough to replace gasoline and diesel at anywhere close to current use levels is impossible without large fossil fuel inputs.
That is your opinion based on processes which are economic in the current situation. There is a difference between more expensive and impossible. What you are saying is that fertilizer made from something else than natural gas (which is only used to produce the ingredient Ammonia) is more expensive given the current prices of natural gas. Well, that is only logical. Basically you are making my point when I say 3rd generation bio-fuels are the way to go. When fertilizer becomes more expensive more parts of the plant will need to be used which is where 3rd generation bio-fuels will help to keep food prices low. After all 'we' will need to continue to grow food one way or another.

BTW: one part you have missed in my previous posts is that fuel consumption also needs to go down. The US could easely reduce it's fuel consumption by half by switching to more efficient cars. In Europe probably around 30% of fuel can be saved. This is something people can do today.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2018, 04:04:19 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3290
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1299 on: July 13, 2018, 05:06:08 am »
That is your opinion based on processes which are economic in the current situation.

No, it is not an opinion. It is a well established fact that current agriculture is highly dependent on fossil fuel inputs. It's not just a matter of economics.

This is easy to verify by a quick internet search but for the lazy, this is a good start

There are simply no methods currently to produce biofuels on a large scale without large fossil fuel inputs. Period. Full stop.

It is your wishful thinking that mythical "3rd gen" biofuels will allow that but you've offered no evidence of that.

There are lots of what ifs and maybes and other manifestations of hope that somehow, someday, technology will rescue us from this predicament. There has been intensive research for at least 40 years to find a biofuel substitute for fossil fuels. So far there has been nothing scaleable. Could it happen, sure it's possible. So is a breakthrough in nuclear fusion, battery technology, etc, etc.  If wishes were horses...

Quote
fuel consumption also needs to go down.

Yes. Absolutely it does. And it will go down, way down by necessity -  and with lots of kicking and screaming along the way....
 


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf