Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 64822 times)

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Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1325 on: July 14, 2018, 03:57:28 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1326 on: July 14, 2018, 04:02:57 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
You should know that that doesn't work. Our government has been increasing the fuel prices for decades but the number of cars has kept increasing just like the wages. People have to go to their work.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1327 on: July 14, 2018, 04:21:47 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy.

Right after the global communist take over, otherwise no one will take point.

Releasing an engineered virus to make most of the global population infertile is more realistic.
 

Offline wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1328 on: July 14, 2018, 04:24:40 am »
2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.
you forget that it assumes 1000 W/m² for only 2000h annually.
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1329 on: July 14, 2018, 04:27:00 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
You should know that that doesn't work. Our government has been increasing the fuel prices for decades but the number of cars has kept increasing just like the wages. People have to go to their work.
Not to that pricepoint, it worked pretty well with tobacco and that is an extemely addictive substance.
I can bike to work, no excuse not to move or find a job closeby or work from home. If the oil is gone this has to happen anyway.
 
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1330 on: July 14, 2018, 04:29:09 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.

Very true. But unfortunately our economy is predicated on endless growth. It is only through continual growth and inflation that debt can be paid.  When growth slows, politicians and bankers panic and do anything possible to prevent further slowdown or GASP! contraction/deflation- even if it means borrowing from the future.

As soon as the next economic contraction/deflation gets going (and it will) the desperation will be palpable - because many in positions of power understand that it is the resource limits that we are approaching that is behind it and we have no long term solution for that.  More borrowing from the future is all that they can do and even that has it's limits. Eventually the piper must be paid.

If you look behind the current headlines and don't let your self be distracted by the mainstream media's tactics, you'll find that it is looming resource shortages that are behind all of the Middle East turmoil, the China trade war, and especially the Russia hysteria.

Unfortunately history shows that most Wars have been initiated and fought due to competition for limited resources.  Hopefully we can avoid that fate this time.
 

Offline ahbushnell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1331 on: July 14, 2018, 07:08:16 am »
A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.

That assumes you have energy storage.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1332 on: July 14, 2018, 07:11:12 am »
A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
That assumes you have energy storage.
An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1333 on: July 14, 2018, 07:33:26 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
You should know that that doesn't work. Our government has been increasing the fuel prices for decades but the number of cars has kept increasing just like the wages. People have to go to their work.

Not to that pricepoint, it worked pretty well with tobacco and that is an extemely addictive substance.
I can bike to work, no excuse not to move or find a job closeby or work from home. If the oil is gone this has to happen anyway.

You are assuming the cost of hosing to be uniform.  I live in the San Francisco Bay Area and few can afford to live here.  Similar story in London, Los Angeles and many other cities.  In American the rich are getting richer and the middle class is getting poorer.

You really think raising price of gas is going to solve anything?  In the US we had gas rationing int he 1970s and just look what it did to the economy around the world.







 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1334 on: July 14, 2018, 07:45:50 am »
Very true. But unfortunately our economy is predicated on endless growth. It is only through continual growth and inflation that debt can be paid. 
I am currently reading the book "Sapiens" kind of interesting statements that only human beings are real, organisations, countries, the concepts of money and debt are all virtual creations that only exist because we believe in them and act to them.
If tomorrow nobody would pay their bills anymore what would happen? Everyones house is sold? To whom?
Your country has such an enormous debt that if the virtual institutions that hold those loans would collect it all tomorrow the usa would be bankrupt or would it?
So no continual growth and profit are mind creations that as is proven over and over can not be sustained for longer periods of time, so why keep following this spiral?
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1335 on: July 14, 2018, 07:55:00 am »
so why keep following this spiral?

Because those with the power benefit from it and have the power and resources to keep the masses unaware of their debt enslavement.

"None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free - Goethe
 

Online DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1336 on: July 14, 2018, 08:06:01 am »
A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
That assumes you have energy storage.
An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.

An around the globe grid of solar pannels is silly.  Anyone who knows anything about electricty knows this is impractical for reasons of physics.

Soviet Union were the masters of distributed nuclear.  To power remote light houses and airplane navigations aids they used distributed nuclear.  No one knows how many of these small nuclear power sources are still out there.  People are finding them not knowing of the radiation dangers and becoming ill.

     
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1337 on: July 14, 2018, 08:18:00 am »
An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.
An around the globe grid of solar pannels is silly.  Anyone who knows anything about electricty knows this is impractical for reasons of physics.
I guess it is time for you to brush-up then. Large electricity grids spanning a significant portion of the globe already exist (the one in Russia for example):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe
And there are plans for more:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SuperSmart_Grid
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1338 on: July 14, 2018, 08:27:26 am »
Very true. But unfortunately our economy is predicated on endless growth. It is only through continual growth and inflation that debt can be paid. 
I am currently reading the book "Sapiens" kind of interesting statements that only human beings are real, organisations, countries, the concepts of money and debt are all virtual creations that only exist because we believe in them and act to them.
If tomorrow nobody would pay their bills anymore what would happen? Everyones house is sold? To whom?
Your country has such an enormous debt that if the virtual institutions that hold those loans would collect it all tomorrow the usa would be bankrupt or would it?
So no continual growth and profit are mind creations that as is proven over and over can not be sustained for longer periods of time, so why keep following this spiral?

What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   It is what ever you value it to be.  If you want to see currency becomes worthless just look at Zimbabwe dollars.  Zimbabwean dollars were not to long agon the most stable currency in the world.  Right now one trillions Zimbabwe dollars is worth about $3.75 USD.

 

Online DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1339 on: July 14, 2018, 08:43:55 am »
An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.
An around the globe grid of solar pannels is silly.  Anyone who knows anything about electricty knows this is impractical for reasons of physics.
I guess it is time for you to brush-up then. Large electricity grids spanning a significant portion of the globe already exist (the one in Russia for example):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe
And there are plans for more:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SuperSmart_Grid

Dude did you even read what’s it says in the links you posted?  “ could be in service as early as 2015”.

it’s now 2018 how much of what you think will be the “perfect” solution has actually been built?


 
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1340 on: July 14, 2018, 05:12:24 pm »
What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   
I don't hope so:
 for me personally money equals energy. Having money I can buy things so I don't have to make it my self or let other people do something so I don't have to do it my self.
In return I perform work that cost me little energy since I am good at it, although it does cost me a lot of time.
It would be stupid to have a virtual placeholder representing that energy that each and every hour costs a lot of energy while nothing happens. So this "money" would in my terms deflate itself.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1341 on: July 14, 2018, 05:53:49 pm »
What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   
I don't hope so:
 for me personally money equals energy. Having money I can buy things so I don't have to make it my self or let other people do something so I don't have to do it my self.
In return I perform work that cost me little energy since I am good at it, although it does cost me a lot of time.
I agree. Money represents an amount of work. It has evolved from bartering goods. It be interesting to read about the Roman currency and economic system.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1342 on: July 14, 2018, 06:29:59 pm »
What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   
I don't hope so:
 for me personally money equals energy. Having money I can buy things so I don't have to make it my self or let other people do something so I don't have to do it my self.
In return I perform work that cost me little energy since I am good at it, although it does cost me a lot of time.

I agree. Money represents an amount of work. It has evolved from bartering goods. It be interesting to read about the Roman currency and economic system.

As George Washington was crossing the Delaware (famous picture) he wrote in is diary he was carrying something like 15 different kinds of currency.  He did not know who he would need to buy supplies from and wanted to be prepared with a currency they would consider had some value.

Value of currency is an instersting one......  I think there is a South Pacific island where the people use large rocks as currency.  One or more of the large stones is in the sea and has been there for over 100 years.   Everyone values the rock, and this is there bases for currency.

The one I like is diamonds.  Diamonds are plentiful and to the people of South Africa just a worthless stone.  Thanks to the company De Beers starting in 1888 they have managed to convince everyone around the world, especially women, they need one of these worthless rocks.  De Beers has done an excellent job controlling and manipulating the worlds supply of diamaonds.  Diamonds essentially a world currency with some similarity to Bitcoin.  And just like Bitcoin an individual or organization can control and manipulate thw value of it.

By the way in case you don’’t know by now, Bitcoin is a complete scam as are related crypto-currencies.  Right now the Chinese have accumulated enough Bitcoins they have complete control over Bitcoin.  Similar to how De Beers has compete control over the world’s diamonds. 
 
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Offline gildasd

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1343 on: July 14, 2018, 10:55:53 pm »
Just for your info, this a map of offshore windfarms from planning to currently exploited:

https://www.4coffshore.com/offshorewind/

As I work in the sector, it seems i'll be busy for a few years.
I'm electronically illiterate
 

Online DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1344 on: July 14, 2018, 11:14:23 pm »
Mtdoc, "pile of trash" was in regards to the blog post, not the person. I simply cannot take a guy who has been out of practice for 20 years (and who uses Excel graphs) at face value.

And no, I don't think the planet can support an infinite number of people. But I think the planet's carrying capacity, assuming we can make dense enough cities, is closer to 20 billion.

World health physician Hans Rosling is staying population won’t peak over 11 billion.


« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 07:38:35 am by DougSpindler »
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1345 on: July 15, 2018, 12:11:39 am »
Mtdoc, "pile of trash" was in regards to the blog post, not the person. I simply cannot take a guy who has been out of practice for 20 years (and who uses Excel graphs) at face value.

And no, I don't think the planet can support an infinite number of people. But I think the planet's carrying capacity, assuming we can make dense enough cities, is closer to 20 billion.

World heath physician Hans Rosling is staying population won’t peak over 11 billion.


Rosling was a great guy, but his figures are already looking dated. He talked about the social difficulties of driving Sweden's birth rate down from 2 to 1.5, but some developed countries have already fallen below 1.5 and continue to drop. It remains to be seen if that pattern replicates itself across the rest of the world, but it seems likely. As China relaxes its one child policy I know some people there who want a second child, but lots who are happy with just one or none. This suggests a future peak well below 11 billion, but with a truly awful mix of ages. The employment problems faced by today's youth seem likely to go away, even if further automation and AI are very successful.
 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1346 on: July 15, 2018, 05:59:35 am »
Trends hold as long as trends hold.

I have no blind faith in progress. I could easily see mass migration from Africa throwing Europe into an economic slide, while raising European birthrates and steering us into a Malthusian collapse.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1347 on: July 15, 2018, 06:50:09 am »
World heath physician Hans Rosling is staying population won’t peak over 11 billion.

He oversimplifies the factors involved in determining population growth but his 11 billion number is in general agreement with the Limits to Growth model predictions.

The big question though is what happens then?  How far and how fast will it decline and by what means?. One thing is certain: It will not simply stay at 11 billion (or whatever the number turns out to be).

The best we can hope for is that with the exhaustion of easy to extract fossil fuels and other resources, the ensuing economic decline will lead to a slow but steady population decline as has been happening in Russia since the dissolution of the USSR .

There are signs that similar factors are already starting to appear here in the US where Life expectancy has fallen in each of the last 2 years.

This is what happens when complex societies begin to collapse. Historically this has always happened eventually - with exhaustion of important resources usually a major causative factor. 

A good book on the subject is Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies

The difference now is that human society is now global. Regional collapses may predate the global wide collapse (and has already begun in some regions) but eventually, because of our interconnectedness, all societies will join in. My sense from the small contacts I have with some of the global elites, is that most of them recognize this but are doing everything possible to keep the house of cards up at all costs and keep the general populace from recognizing what's coming.

People tend to get all emotional and suffer from severe cognitive dissonance when faced with this issue.  They accuse those who point out resources limits and the inevitable decline in human population of wanting it to happen.  No, it's just that some people are able to face and discuss the issue rationally while others prefer to do the equivalent of holding their hands over their ears and singing "La La La La". 
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1348 on: July 15, 2018, 07:15:43 am »
This is what happens when complex societies begin to collapse. Historically this has always happened eventually - with exhaustion of important resources usually a major causative factor. 

A good book on the subject is Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies
That is an interesting subject but I don't think that history will repeat itself this time around. Book printing and more recently internet have created a critical mass in the availability of information and knowledge level of the people in general. Back in the old days people where kept dumb as a means of control.

Also the way the modern world is financially intertwined also creates some stability. Resources may become a problem but nowadays it is much easier for people to move to where the resources are.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1349 on: July 15, 2018, 07:19:41 am »
But the internet can be easily turned off by the masters of the universe... imagine that!
 


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