Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 33681 times)

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Online wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1325 on: July 14, 2018, 02:13:31 am »
 
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Online mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1326 on: July 14, 2018, 02:35:55 am »
A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.

« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 03:07:11 am by mtdoc »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1327 on: July 14, 2018, 03:00:46 am »
Boiling water FTW  :-DD

Got a better solution?  Any reason you are not sharing it with the world?

Steam power has served us well since 1712.  What’s your solution?
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1328 on: July 14, 2018, 03:57:28 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1329 on: July 14, 2018, 04:02:57 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
You should know that that doesn't work. Our government has been increasing the fuel prices for decades but the number of cars has kept increasing just like the wages. People have to go to their work.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1330 on: July 14, 2018, 04:21:47 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy.

Right after the global communist take over, otherwise no one will take point.

Releasing an engineered virus to make most of the global population infertile is more realistic.
 

Online wraper

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1331 on: July 14, 2018, 04:24:40 am »
2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.
you forget that it assumes 1000 W/m² for only 2000h annually.
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1332 on: July 14, 2018, 04:27:00 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
You should know that that doesn't work. Our government has been increasing the fuel prices for decades but the number of cars has kept increasing just like the wages. People have to go to their work.
Not to that pricepoint, it worked pretty well with tobacco and that is an extemely addictive substance.
I can bike to work, no excuse not to move or find a job closeby or work from home. If the oil is gone this has to happen anyway.
 
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Online mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1333 on: July 14, 2018, 04:29:09 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.

Very true. But unfortunately our economy is predicated on endless growth. It is only through continual growth and inflation that debt can be paid.  When growth slows, politicians and bankers panic and do anything possible to prevent further slowdown or GASP! contraction/deflation- even if it means borrowing from the future.

As soon as the next economic contraction/deflation gets going (and it will) the desperation will be palpable - because many in positions of power understand that it is the resource limits that we are approaching that is behind it and we have no long term solution for that.  More borrowing from the future is all that they can do and even that has it's limits. Eventually the piper must be paid.

If you look behind the current headlines and don't let your self be distracted by the mainstream media's tactics, you'll find that it is looming resource shortages that are behind all of the Middle East turmoil, the China trade war, and especially the Russia hysteria.

Unfortunately history shows that most Wars have been initiated and fought due to competition for limited resources.  Hopefully we can avoid that fate this time.
 

Offline ahbushnell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1334 on: July 14, 2018, 07:08:16 am »
A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.

That assumes you have energy storage.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1335 on: July 14, 2018, 07:11:12 am »
A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
That assumes you have energy storage.
An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1336 on: July 14, 2018, 07:33:26 am »
No-one here mentions to slow down on consumption and the economy. While it is the simplest of options but the most impopular.
If we make petrol $25/gallon consumption will slow down and we can longer enjoy the reserves, ofcourse industries and ships and planes have to join as well.
You should know that that doesn't work. Our government has been increasing the fuel prices for decades but the number of cars has kept increasing just like the wages. People have to go to their work.

Not to that pricepoint, it worked pretty well with tobacco and that is an extemely addictive substance.
I can bike to work, no excuse not to move or find a job closeby or work from home. If the oil is gone this has to happen anyway.

You are assuming the cost of hosing to be uniform.  I live in the San Francisco Bay Area and few can afford to live here.  Similar story in London, Los Angeles and many other cities.  In American the rich are getting richer and the middle class is getting poorer.

You really think raising price of gas is going to solve anything?  In the US we had gas rationing int he 1970s and just look what it did to the economy around the world.







 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1337 on: July 14, 2018, 07:45:50 am »
Very true. But unfortunately our economy is predicated on endless growth. It is only through continual growth and inflation that debt can be paid. 
I am currently reading the book "Sapiens" kind of interesting statements that only human beings are real, organisations, countries, the concepts of money and debt are all virtual creations that only exist because we believe in them and act to them.
If tomorrow nobody would pay their bills anymore what would happen? Everyones house is sold? To whom?
Your country has such an enormous debt that if the virtual institutions that hold those loans would collect it all tomorrow the usa would be bankrupt or would it?
So no continual growth and profit are mind creations that as is proven over and over can not be sustained for longer periods of time, so why keep following this spiral?
 

Online mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1338 on: July 14, 2018, 07:55:00 am »
so why keep following this spiral?

Because those with the power benefit from it and have the power and resources to keep the masses unaware of their debt enslavement.

"None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free - Goethe
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1339 on: July 14, 2018, 08:06:01 am »
A couple of discrepencies are immediately obvious in that graphic compared to Tom Murphy's numbers.

1). That map assumes 20% efficiency which is wildly unrealistic. Just the PV panels alone based on current technology are not that efficient (15-18% in standard test conditions is more realistic and even that is not reflective or real world conditions - heat reduces output significantly). You also have to assume other substantial efficiency losses - wiring, inverter losses, etc.

Tom Murphy assumes 8% efficiency for his map which is much more realistic.

2) That map assumes 1000 W/m² of solar energy which is also overly optimistic. Tom assumes 700 W/m² and he explains in the link I provided how he arrives at that number.

I have not looked at the other assumptions of that graphic but based on the above I'm guessing that they are equally overly optimistic.

It really doesn't matter though. The main point is the same. It would only take PV panels covering  a very small fraction of the Earth's land area to provide for all of society's electricity needs.
That assumes you have energy storage.
An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.

An around the globe grid of solar pannels is silly.  Anyone who knows anything about electricty knows this is impractical for reasons of physics.

Soviet Union were the masters of distributed nuclear.  To power remote light houses and airplane navigations aids they used distributed nuclear.  No one knows how many of these small nuclear power sources are still out there.  People are finding them not knowing of the radiation dangers and becoming ill.

     
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1340 on: July 14, 2018, 08:18:00 am »
An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.
An around the globe grid of solar pannels is silly.  Anyone who knows anything about electricty knows this is impractical for reasons of physics.
I guess it is time for you to brush-up then. Large electricity grids spanning a significant portion of the globe already exist (the one in Russia for example):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe
And there are plans for more:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SuperSmart_Grid
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1341 on: July 14, 2018, 08:27:26 am »
Very true. But unfortunately our economy is predicated on endless growth. It is only through continual growth and inflation that debt can be paid. 
I am currently reading the book "Sapiens" kind of interesting statements that only human beings are real, organisations, countries, the concepts of money and debt are all virtual creations that only exist because we believe in them and act to them.
If tomorrow nobody would pay their bills anymore what would happen? Everyones house is sold? To whom?
Your country has such an enormous debt that if the virtual institutions that hold those loans would collect it all tomorrow the usa would be bankrupt or would it?
So no continual growth and profit are mind creations that as is proven over and over can not be sustained for longer periods of time, so why keep following this spiral?

What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   It is what ever you value it to be.  If you want to see currency becomes worthless just look at Zimbabwe dollars.  Zimbabwean dollars were not to long agon the most stable currency in the world.  Right now one trillions Zimbabwe dollars is worth about $3.75 USD.

 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1342 on: July 14, 2018, 08:43:55 am »
An alternative would be an around-the-globe grid of solar panels. That would require much more solar panels but reduce the amount of storage. Ofcourse this will never be accomplished for political reasons. Nuclear is the only really viable option because it is decentralised.
An around the globe grid of solar pannels is silly.  Anyone who knows anything about electricty knows this is impractical for reasons of physics.
I guess it is time for you to brush-up then. Large electricity grids spanning a significant portion of the globe already exist (the one in Russia for example):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronous_grid_of_Continental_Europe
And there are plans for more:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SuperSmart_Grid

Dude did you even read what’s it says in the links you posted?  “ could be in service as early as 2015”.

it’s now 2018 how much of what you think will be the “perfect” solution has actually been built?


 
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1343 on: July 14, 2018, 05:12:24 pm »
What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   
I don't hope so:
 for me personally money equals energy. Having money I can buy things so I don't have to make it my self or let other people do something so I don't have to do it my self.
In return I perform work that cost me little energy since I am good at it, although it does cost me a lot of time.
It would be stupid to have a virtual placeholder representing that energy that each and every hour costs a lot of energy while nothing happens. So this "money" would in my terms deflate itself.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1344 on: July 14, 2018, 05:53:49 pm »
What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   
I don't hope so:
 for me personally money equals energy. Having money I can buy things so I don't have to make it my self or let other people do something so I don't have to do it my self.
In return I perform work that cost me little energy since I am good at it, although it does cost me a lot of time.
I agree. Money represents an amount of work. It has evolved from bartering goods. It be interesting to read about the Roman currency and economic system.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1345 on: July 14, 2018, 06:29:59 pm »
What you are describing is Bitcoin.  What is the value of a Bitcoin or any currency?   
I don't hope so:
 for me personally money equals energy. Having money I can buy things so I don't have to make it my self or let other people do something so I don't have to do it my self.
In return I perform work that cost me little energy since I am good at it, although it does cost me a lot of time.

I agree. Money represents an amount of work. It has evolved from bartering goods. It be interesting to read about the Roman currency and economic system.

As George Washington was crossing the Delaware (famous picture) he wrote in is diary he was carrying something like 15 different kinds of currency.  He did not know who he would need to buy supplies from and wanted to be prepared with a currency they would consider had some value.

Value of currency is an instersting one......  I think there is a South Pacific island where the people use large rocks as currency.  One or more of the large stones is in the sea and has been there for over 100 years.   Everyone values the rock, and this is there bases for currency.

The one I like is diamonds.  Diamonds are plentiful and to the people of South Africa just a worthless stone.  Thanks to the company De Beers starting in 1888 they have managed to convince everyone around the world, especially women, they need one of these worthless rocks.  De Beers has done an excellent job controlling and manipulating the worlds supply of diamaonds.  Diamonds essentially a world currency with some similarity to Bitcoin.  And just like Bitcoin an individual or organization can control and manipulate thw value of it.

By the way in case you don’’t know by now, Bitcoin is a complete scam as are related crypto-currencies.  Right now the Chinese have accumulated enough Bitcoins they have complete control over Bitcoin.  Similar to how De Beers has compete control over the world’s diamonds. 
 
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Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1346 on: July 14, 2018, 10:46:00 pm »
Mtdoc, "pile of trash" was in regards to the blog post, not the person. I simply cannot take a guy who has been out of practice for 20 years (and who uses Excel graphs) at face value.

And no, I don't think the planet can support an infinite number of people. But I think the planet's carrying capacity, assuming we can make dense enough cities, is closer to 20 billion.
 

Offline a59d1

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1347 on: July 14, 2018, 10:46:33 pm »
Mtdoc, "pile of trash" was in regards to the blog post, not the person. I simply cannot take a guy who has been out of practice for 20 years (and who uses Excel graphs without data cited) at face value.

And no, I don't think the planet can support an infinite number of people. But I think the planet's carrying capacity, assuming we can make dense enough cities, is closer to 20 billion.
 

Offline gildasd

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1348 on: July 14, 2018, 10:55:53 pm »
Just for your info, this a map of offshore windfarms from planning to currently exploited:

https://www.4coffshore.com/offshorewind/

As I work in the sector, it seems i'll be busy for a few years.
I'm electronically illiterate
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1349 on: July 14, 2018, 11:14:23 pm »
Mtdoc, "pile of trash" was in regards to the blog post, not the person. I simply cannot take a guy who has been out of practice for 20 years (and who uses Excel graphs) at face value.

And no, I don't think the planet can support an infinite number of people. But I think the planet's carrying capacity, assuming we can make dense enough cities, is closer to 20 billion.

World health physician Hans Rosling is staying population won’t peak over 11 billion.


« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 07:38:35 am by DougSpindler »
 


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