Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 190707 times)

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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1400 on: July 17, 2018, 07:12:50 pm »
In the near term - no, of course not - and I've never claimed that. Eventually, yes I believe it will be, unless as you propose,  the massive amount of concrete and steel needed to build a safe plant is accomplished Roman or Egyptian style - using thousands of humans working by hand to mine and move materials. Of course it took them hundreds of years to accomplish their large scale building projects using these methods - so ....
The pyramid of Cheops took 20 years to built. Not hundreds of years. The Collosseum in Rome took 8 years to built before opening and another 16 years to complete. I haven't been to the pyramid of Cheops but I did visit the Collosseum and it is freakishly huge even though half of the outer ring has dissapeared in the past few millennia.

I wasn't referring to those specific structures in isolation- either of which is no where near as complex as a nuclear power plant.  In any case, I was at the Colosseum in October 2016.  Yes in it's original form you are correct. Its present form took longer.

Both structures required the hard manual labor of tens of thousands of men.  Sure one theory says that in the case of the pyramids - they may not have technically been "slaves" - yet surely you don't believe the workers were working in conditions anything like even the most taxing manual labor jobs today.

Are you seriously suggesting that large, safe nuclear power plants could be built on a large scale in the future solely using human and animal powered labor?
The volume of concrete and steel alone in a nuclear power plant greatly exceeds the total volume of simple limestone blocks in the pyramid at Cheops.  Never mind the energy required to produce steel, concrete, piping, etc, etc.

As a reference point - one gallon of oil has the energy equivalent of approximately 23,000 hours of human work equivalent. 
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 07:29:50 pm by mtdoc »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1401 on: July 17, 2018, 07:34:20 pm »
One variable the report can not address are technological discoveries and failures.  If more resources and funds were put to the task it is thought we could have NextGen nuclear very soon.  This is something the report does not and can not address.  So far every experiment that has been done with NextGen nuclear has been promising.   And not only is there not one way to do it, there are several. 

Everyone who has seriously looked at all the electricity producing option we have realizes NextGen nuclear is the best solution we have at this time.  And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away. 
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1402 on: July 17, 2018, 08:33:07 pm »
Can I suggest that if you want to argue Nuclear/Non-Nuclear and other energy (not car related) that you start a new thread in the "Renewable Energy" forum.

Please can we return this to the discussion of electric vehicles.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1403 on: July 17, 2018, 08:54:16 pm »
And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away.
You keep making references to reactors which don't leave long lasting troublesome isotopes behind. What exactly are you referring to?
 

Offline SeanB

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1404 on: July 17, 2018, 09:33:15 pm »
Look at Fullychargedshow on Youtube, where Robert Llewellyn has his series on electric cars, electric houses and such. While he may be an actor, he does have a reasonable idea about things, and more importantly, data to back a lot of it up.  He does have solar power in his UK house as well, and has the power figures up as well.  As well you do get the odd reference to Red Dwarf as well, though he does not wear the costume on the channel much, but you do meet the cast, plus he has done some really good carpool episodes.

Yes I bought the series.........
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1405 on: July 17, 2018, 09:37:02 pm »
Please can we return this to the discussion of electric vehicles
Sure what do you want to contribute?
On another forum where electric cars have been discussed over 300 pages the consensus is that current generation electric cars are interesting for home-work home-city shopping travel for those lucky enough to have their own driveway with charging pole and completely useless for everything and everybody else  ;D
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1406 on: July 17, 2018, 09:38:12 pm »
Look at Fullychargedshow on Youtube, where Robert Llewellyn has his series on electric cars, electric houses and such. While he may be an actor, he does have a reasonable idea about things, and more importantly, data to back a lot of it up.  He does have solar power in his UK house as well, and has the power figures up as well.  As well you do get the odd reference to Red Dwarf as well, though he does not wear the costume on the channel much, but you do meet the cast, plus he has done some really good carpool episodes.

Yes I bought the series.........

Yes, I'm also a big fan of Jonny Smith too. He's always been a good auto journalist.
 

Offline boffin

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1407 on: July 17, 2018, 09:42:11 pm »
Please can we return this to the discussion of electric vehicles
Sure what do you want to contribute?
On another forum where electric cars have been discussed over 300 pages the consensus is that current generation electric cars are interesting for home-work home-city shopping travel for those lucky enough to have their own driveway with charging pole and completely useless for everything and everybody else  ;D

Well, given I own an electric car, I'm more than happy to offer up advice, information, and actual results. The current generation tend to be good for approx 200-250km range, which fits 95% of most people's journeys. Are they perfect? Far from it.  Are they ideal for most people, yes.

Up until a couple of years ago, you either had to be wealthy (Tesla) or willing to drive something that said "I'm electric!!!!!!!" (Leaf, i3, etc). Now with more mainstream cars coming onto the market, I think you'd be surprised how prevalent they are.

Certainly for my case with low electricity prices (although a lot of jurisdictions have low overnight prices), and relatively high petroleum prices, electric works out very very well.
 
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Online NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1408 on: July 17, 2018, 09:54:57 pm »
I see plug in hybrids as a good bridge technology to cover the 5% that doesn't work well with current EV technology.
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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1409 on: July 17, 2018, 10:03:53 pm »
Are they perfect? Far from it.  Are they ideal for most people, yes.
In other words: Far from perfect cars are ideal for most people, right?
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Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1410 on: July 17, 2018, 10:12:51 pm »
I see plug in hybrids as a good bridge technology to cover the 5% that doesn't work well with current EV technology.
No. Too expensive AND no range. Just stay clear from EVs and buy an efficient ICE car. As I calculated earlier the financial break even point between a size wise comparable EV and ICE based car is between 150000 and 200000km based on the high price we have to pay for fuel here in the NL. Furthermore the net effect on CO2 emissions from an EV is debatable due to the energy needed for manufacturing the batteries and various electricity production methods. All in all EVs are nice toys just like sports cars. If you can afford one and have a private parking spot to charge it: fine but don't try to sell it as a sensible choice. It just isn't.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 10:44:59 pm by nctnico »
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Online NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1411 on: July 17, 2018, 10:46:03 pm »
The whole point of a plug in hybrid is to get more range than is practical with an EV. As in they're a great fit for those who commute on the order of 10-20 miles daily, but have to make long trips every once in a while.

It's also worth noting that while very few have the means to make biofuel at home, generating your own electricity at home is surprisingly easy.
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1412 on: July 17, 2018, 11:10:26 pm »
And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away.
You keep making references to reactors which don't leave long lasting troublesome isotopes behind. What exactly are you referring to?

The NextGen reactors which are being developed at NIF, ITER and at 75 other companies.  Paul Allen of Microsoft wealth and Bill Gates have each backing NextGen nuclear companies.  NextGen reactors use low MW/hydrogen atoms as fuel.  Half-life for the radioactive residue is 12.3 years with biological half-life being 10 days.

 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1413 on: July 17, 2018, 11:27:04 pm »
Are they perfect? Far from it.  Are they ideal for most people, yes.
In other words: Far from perfect cars are ideal for most people, right?

Is there such a thing as “the perfect car?”  Don’t think so.  Al depending on where you are going, wheat you are doing, how far you are going and how many people need to travel with you. 

I have an EV and there ICE.  If’ I’m driving kids to school, EV is perfect.  If I going to HomeCheapo to buy lumbar my truck is perfect.  Long trips with family, my sedan is perfect.  For the commute to work depends which office I will be working at.  The perfect car for one office is the EV because I can use the HOV lanes and the charging station,  But if I’m traveling to the other office, there are no HOV lanes I can use, no charging station and the mileage is a bit beyond the distance the EV can travel on battereies so the perfect car for this trip is my fuel efficient ICE. 

You will find everyone’s definition of is a bit different.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1414 on: July 17, 2018, 11:39:16 pm »
And unlike current nuclear technology if we screw up and have a massive Chenobly disaster in just 20 years all of the radioactive isotopes will have completely decayed away.
You keep making references to reactors which don't leave long lasting troublesome isotopes behind. What exactly are you referring to?

The NextGen reactors which are being developed at NIF, ITER and at 75 other companies.  Paul Allen of Microsoft wealth and Bill Gates have each backing NextGen nuclear companies.  NextGen reactors use low MW/hydrogen atoms as fuel.  Half-life for the radioactive residue is 12.3 years with biological half-life being 10 days.
This seems about as well researched as your claims about UK roof solar panel.

NIF and ITER are researching fusion reactions. These use hydrogen, and produce low levels of long half life waste. However, they are just research projects, far from practical application. Both hope to get to the point where they produce significantly more energy than they consume, but they have no expectations of producing so much net energy that anyone would consider them viable for production use. They are certainly important research projects for the longer term, but calling them "Next-Gen" is a heck of a stretch. Its not even clear the techniques they are experimenting with will ever be viable.

Paul Allen, Bill Gates and others are funding work on things which are genuinely next-gen, but they are using the same old fission processes as current reactors. They expect to make their reactors cheaper, more efficient, and practical to construct in a wider range of sizes than anything in use right now. They should also be far safer than anything in use now, as most failure modes are relatively benign. Because the waste from these new reactors is basically the same as the waste produced right now, it will have just as long a half-life as any other uranium fission based solution.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1415 on: July 18, 2018, 08:13:43 am »
The whole point of a plug in hybrid is to get more range than is practical with an EV. As in they're a great fit for those who commute on the order of 10-20 miles daily, but have to make long trips every once in a while.
But you still need a place to charge and they are still more expensive while the manufacturing of batteries and electricity production make the amount of CO2 emission savings debatable at least.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1416 on: July 18, 2018, 01:08:17 pm »
You can guarantee that your electricity is zero carbon by installing your own solar. Although if CO2 is your only concern, planting trees would be cheaper.

And then there are the regular hybrids that work well for those who can't charge an EV. Although that problem is solving itself as EVs become more common.
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Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1417 on: July 18, 2018, 01:26:20 pm »
The bar is set too high for EVs. Perhaps in a decade or two, maybe.
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Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1418 on: July 18, 2018, 04:44:00 pm »
You can guarantee that your electricity is zero carbon by installing your own solar.
Do the math on how many square meters you need and you'll see an EV needs a huge amount of solar panels. A simple few kW roof mounted system ain't gonna do it. IF you already have that much roof space.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1419 on: July 18, 2018, 04:46:37 pm »
You can guarantee that your electricity is zero carbon by installing your own solar.
Do the math on how many square meters you need and you'll see an EV needs a huge amount of solar panels. A simple few kW roof mounted system ain't gonna do it. IF you already have that much roof space.
And good luck charging overnight.
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Online NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1420 on: July 18, 2018, 04:56:36 pm »
Something like a Nissan Leaf uses 30kWh/100 miles, so for someone who commutes 10 miles daily, that would only be 3kWh daily, easily achieved by a 1kW solar setup. Putting solar on the car itself doesn't work out very well, except for RVs but that's more for use when parked than for driving. Of which, it makes a lot of sense to make plug in hybrid RVs when there's already a great reason to have a big battery bank on those.
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1421 on: July 18, 2018, 04:56:56 pm »
I see plug in hybrids as a good bridge technology to cover the 5% that doesn't work well with current EV technology.


This is exactly right and why we now own 2 PHEVs.  They have most of the advantages of a pure EV and none of the disadvantages.

In the US approximately 78% of drivers drive less than 40 miles per day. (see below). I don't know the data for Europe but based on my time there I'll bet the number is less.

I've owned my Volt for 4 years now and my lifetime average is 208 miles per gallon. 
I've yet to meet anyone who has bought an PHEV who regrets the decision.

Ignore any naysayers who have not actually owned a PHEV.


 
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1422 on: July 18, 2018, 05:07:11 pm »
You can guarantee that your electricity is zero carbon by installing your own solar.
Do the math on how many square meters you need and you'll see an EV needs a huge amount of solar panels. A simple few kW roof mounted system ain't gonna do it. IF you already have that much roof space.
And good luck charging overnight.

Hmm,  If only there was a  way to store the excess electricity you produce during the day??? ::) ::)

I live in the Pacific NW - western Washington state - one of the least sunny areas of the country.  Even here, for  the summer months my 4500 watts of PV produces oabout 15 - 20kWh per day.   That is enough to cover my wife an my daily driving.

In other months - we are dependent (for now) on some grid electricity but  our utility  electricity is 87% hydro and 11% nuclear.
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1423 on: July 18, 2018, 05:19:20 pm »
Do the math on how many square meters you need and you'll see an EV needs a huge amount of solar panels. A simple few kW roof mounted system ain't gonna do it. IF you already have that much roof space.
And good luck charging overnight.
Hmm,  If only there was a  way to store the excess electricity you produce during the day??? ::) ::)
::) ::)
One that's good and affordable, that doesn't incur in 15% losses everytime you use it, and also preferably with a lifetime of more than a few years too. Does it exist?
« Last Edit: July 18, 2018, 06:36:28 pm by GeorgeOfTheJungle »
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Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1424 on: July 18, 2018, 05:23:47 pm »
Do the math on how many square meters you need and you'll see an EV needs a huge amount of solar panels. A simple few kW roof mounted system ain't gonna do it. IF you already have that much roof space.
And good luck charging overnight.
Hmm,  If only there was a  way to store the excess electricity you produce during the day??? ::) ::)
::) ::)
One that's good and affordable, that doesn't incur in 15% losses everytime you use it, and also preferably with a lifetime of more than a few years too. Does it exist?

Charge discharge efficiency for many types of battery banks is >90%

Charge/discharge efficiency is a fact of life. Does this keep you from using a cell phone or laptop?   ::)

Depending on type and use, deep discharge battery banks have an expected lifespan between 15 and 30 years.

In any case, most grid tie PV setups use the grid for storage of extra daytime energy production so batteries don't come into it.

Stop trolling.
 
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