Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 162105 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17859
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1550 on: August 02, 2018, 01:14:44 pm »
@Coppice: In the end the economics matter and not the efficiency. If efficiency mattered then all our computers would have 99.5% efficient power supplies.

@Kjelt: the Hindenberg didn't catch fire due to H2 but due to the extremely flammable material they used for the outer layer. A similar goof-up like the Grenfell tower and the accident with the Apollo capsule catching fire (the latter due to the pure O2 atmosphere).
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 4690
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1551 on: August 02, 2018, 01:43:01 pm »
@Coppice: In the end the economics matter and not the efficiency. If efficiency mattered then all our computers would have 99.5% efficient power supplies.
If you want to duck the issues, and not address them, why not keep your own counsel, rather than offer a meaningless response?

If you want a rational discussion why not take a page like https://phys.org/news/2006-12-hydrogen-economy-doesnt.html and critique it? Its from 2006, so some things may have changed, and it may contain some inaccurate figures. It does, however, look at the whole supply chain, which most articles avoid.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 02:50:50 pm by coppice »
 

Online Kjelt

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5685
  • Country: nl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1552 on: August 02, 2018, 02:10:05 pm »
@Kjelt: the Hindenberg didn't catch fire due to H2 but due to the extremely flammable material they used for the outer layer. A similar goof-up like the Grenfell tower and the accident with the Apollo capsule catching fire (the latter due to the pure O2 atmosphere).
No that is just a hypothesis, the hydrogen-spark hypothesis is still the most widely official accepted theory.
Quote
The theory that hydrogen was ignited by a static spark is the most widely accepted theory as determined by the official crash investigations.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_disaster#Fire's_initial_fuel

But in cars it could be relatively safe I haven't seen the analysis, or accident reports statistics so can't judge, the liquid gas tanks where also pretty safe.
 

Offline Marco

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 4403
  • Country: nl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1553 on: August 02, 2018, 02:34:23 pm »
Could it possibly have some issues beneath the attractive looking headline?

It couldn't ride the coat tails of battery development for mass market consumer devices (for which they aren't suited, except for a high energy density low power density non rechargeable niche) and setting up a distribution network for physical recharging them takes a lot of investment. In the bootstrapping phase lithium ion makes a lot more sense, if you can't physically recharge it all you're left with is the higher cost of electrical recharging.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 02:37:41 pm by Marco »
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17859
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1554 on: August 02, 2018, 06:25:23 pm »
@Coppice: In the end the economics matter and not the efficiency. If efficiency mattered then all our computers would have 99.5% efficient power supplies.
If you want to duck the issues, and not address them, why not keep your own counsel, rather than offer a meaningless response?

If you want a rational discussion why not take a page like https://phys.org/news/2006-12-hydrogen-economy-doesnt.html and critique it? Its from 2006, so some things may have changed, and it may contain some inaccurate figures. It does, however, look at the whole supply chain, which most articles avoid.
I don't need to duck anything. The article only looks at efficiency and totally ignores the economics. In the real world the choosen solution will be driven by economics and not efficiency. The biggest challenge for electricity from solar and wind is storage and a significant part of the price per kWh will probably be driven by the storage costs.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 06:31:20 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 4690
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1555 on: August 02, 2018, 09:29:47 pm »
@Coppice: In the end the economics matter and not the efficiency. If efficiency mattered then all our computers would have 99.5% efficient power supplies.
If you want to duck the issues, and not address them, why not keep your own counsel, rather than offer a meaningless response?

If you want a rational discussion why not take a page like https://phys.org/news/2006-12-hydrogen-economy-doesnt.html and critique it? Its from 2006, so some things may have changed, and it may contain some inaccurate figures. It does, however, look at the whole supply chain, which most articles avoid.
I don't need to duck anything. The article only looks at efficiency and totally ignores the economics. In the real world the choosen solution will be driven by economics and not efficiency. The biggest challenge for electricity from solar and wind is storage and a significant part of the price per kWh will probably be driven by the storage costs.
Only a fool would disagree that effective storage is the key to the viability of most kinds of renewable energy, and that economics is always the bottom line when choosing solutions. Doubling the size of the renewable energy systems needed, plus the high maintenance costs of electrolysis systems, and all the other complexities of handling and storing hydrogen, are serious economic barriers for hydrogen to overcome, though. A hydrogen powered car might have a longer range than an electric one, with current technology. However a hydrogen car has the opposite problem. Its really awful for the short daily journeys where something like a Nissan Leaf does a fine job, because of venting loses, unless you keep the tank nearly empty, and refill often. A cost effect way to turn renewably sourced electricity into an easy to store fuel, like ethanol, would be a game changer. Hydrogen just seems to swap one set of problems for another.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17859
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1556 on: August 02, 2018, 09:50:21 pm »
Still you provide no actual numbers on whether it is feasible or not. Meanwhile more Hydrogen fueling stations are being installed so at least for some people the numbers add up to a good solution. I just :popcorn: and see where it goes.

But yes, ethanol (as in third generation bio-fuel) is most probably the way forward.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline ahbushnell

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 456
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1557 on: August 03, 2018, 12:03:29 am »
What you are saying today about battery technology toady is exactly what was being said 100 years ago.  In 100 years of battery powered vehicles not much has changed.  Maybe it's time to look at steam power and ECE.  Just over 100 years ago the leading and proven technology was stem power for well over 100 years.  Maybe it's time to bring steam power back.  How about a solar steam powered ECE using steam?

Seriously at this time our only chicices are human, fossil fuel or nucelar power for vehicles.  Yes EVs are nice, but if in 100 years we haven't made major improvements on the batterey technoilgy don't expect somehting soon.

What's intereting is the range of EV cars today is not that much different than those of 100 years ago is not that much different.  (Some exceptioons.)

That's interesting.  Do you have some data on 100 year old electric cars in terms of range and speed?

Thanks!
 

Offline DougSpindler

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1157
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1558 on: August 03, 2018, 12:15:28 am »
Take a look at Jay Leno's garage.  He has a Baker EV car.  These are his words, not mine.

You can also read about the Baker EV cars.
 

Offline ahbushnell

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 456
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1559 on: August 03, 2018, 03:27:36 am »
Take a look at Jay Leno's garage.  He has a Baker EV car.  These are his words, not mine.

You can also read about the Baker EV cars.

Quote
Overview
        The Baker years of 1900 to 1915 spanned the range when individual electric cars were popular. Because 1,000 lbs of batteries could only deliver 2-3 kw for 2-3 hours, the hp rating of these cars was low (2-4 hp) and their range was limited. Prior to 1900 was the era of commercial electric vehicles: taxis and trucks, many made by Electric Vehicle Company of Hartford Conn, which sold cars under the brand name Columbia. After 1915 there was a short lived period of a few high power, high performance electric drive cars where the battery was replaced by a combustion engine coupled to a dynamo. While this increased the available power by x10 or so, and solved the range problem too, it produced an expensive and heavy car. The most notable of these high power, electric drive cars was the Owen Magnetic, which had a unique
electromagnetic transmission designed by Justus Entz. Walter Baker acquired the patent rights to Entz drive train in 1912 and guided the Owen Magnetic into production in 1915 where it survived until 1922.

http://www.twinkletoesengineering.info/wells_auto_museum/baker_electric_technology.htm#Overview

One ton of batteries which produce 2-3 kW for 2-3 hours.  So 4 to 9 kW-hr in 1 ton. 

Further down in the article it says Jay Leno's 1909 baker electric would go 110 miles in 4-5 hours with modern lead-acid batteries.   

Down further there is a comparison of modern battery to the Baker.  It has about 1/10 the energy of a modern battery.

Quote
Battery kwh comparison to modern electric cars
       It's interesting to compare the kwh rating of this Baker battery with a modern electric car battert. The baker kwh rating (ideally) is 7.56 kwh = (21A x 6hr x 60V). The electric car with the largest capacity battery (as I write) is the Tesla model S, which has an 85 kwh battery. A more modest extended ranage electric car like the GM Volt has a 16 kwh battery. So the Baker's 1,000 lb (roughly) lead acid batteries had about 1/10th the kwh rating of the lithium ion battery which fills the floor of the Tesla Model S, or about half the kwh capacity of the more modest Volt battery.

Interesting comparison.

 

Online Kjelt

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5685
  • Country: nl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1560 on: August 03, 2018, 07:28:08 am »
Quote
Battery kwh comparison to modern electric cars
       It's interesting to compare the kwh rating of this Baker battery with a modern electric car battert. The baker kwh rating (ideally) is 7.56 kwh = (21A x 6hr x 60V). The electric car with the largest capacity battery (as I write) is the Tesla model S, which has an 85 kwh battery. A more modest extended ranage electric car like the GM Volt has a 16 kwh battery. So the Baker's 1,000 lb (roughly) lead acid batteries had about 1/10th the kwh rating of the lithium ion battery which fills the floor of the Tesla Model S, or about half the kwh capacity of the more modest Volt battery.
Interesting comparison. 
And that is what we have achieved on battery technology in 100 years  :(
That is also why I try to temper expectations on some people that really think that in a few years we will have affordable EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
The only EV with that mileage at this moment is the Tesla S which in the Netherlands costs between €87000 and €150000 1 depending on the model  :o

1https://www.autowereld.com/nieuwe-autos/prijzen-specificaties/tesla/model-s-119381
 

Offline f4eru

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 552
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1561 on: August 03, 2018, 11:06:11 am »
EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
Nope.
That assumption is wrong.
EVs for the masses don't need 650km range when the daily trip is <60km.
Mass market needs proper fast charger networks, not range.
Long trips are rare, and the fast 25min charging stops add up to much less time than the weekly time at gas stations.
 

Online coppice

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 4690
  • Country: gb
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1562 on: August 03, 2018, 11:14:00 am »
Long trips are rare, and the fast 25min charging stops add up to much less time than the weekly time at gas stations.
Long trips are rare for some people, but a daily event for others. No one electric car is going to suit everyone's needs in an economical manner, just as no one ICE car suits everyone's needs in an economical manner.
 

Online Kjelt

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5685
  • Country: nl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1563 on: August 03, 2018, 12:40:34 pm »
EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
Nope.
That assumption is wrong.
EVs for the masses don't need 650km range when the daily trip is <60km.
Mass market needs proper fast charger networks, not range.
Long trips are rare, and the fast 25min charging stops add up to much less time than the weekly time at gas stations.
I can't see which country your from but in our country we do and will not have the infrastructure to support even every commuter to fast charge between 7-8am and 1700-1800 nor charge them at home, so if the charging frequency increases the adoptability of EVs will decrease. The minimum range necessary will probably be around 350-400km. Looking at a state as California that at least a few years back was unable to sustain normal mains netpower in the summer this will be an equally big challenge.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17859
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1564 on: August 03, 2018, 01:15:01 pm »
EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
Nope.
That assumption is wrong.
No it is not and it is very easy to understand. Ask yourself why an ICE based car has a fuel tank which takes it around 800km? Why would that be? Is that some kind of arbitrary number? No, it is not. It is what the customers find acceptable. Plain and simple and there is no argueing around it.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline richard.cs

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 679
  • Country: gb
  • Electronics engineer from Southampton, UK.
    • Random stuff I've built (mostly non-electronic and fairly dated).
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1565 on: August 03, 2018, 01:46:05 pm »
No it is not and it is very easy to understand. Ask yourself why an ICE based car has a fuel tank which takes it around 800km? Why would that be? Is that some kind of arbitrary number? No, it is not. It is what the customers find acceptable. Plain and simple and there is no argueing around it.

I don't disagree that range is an issue for many (but not all) people, but there are several logical errors in directly translating ICE range to EV range:

1)  If you take 800 km as the range that people demand in an ICE car, it does not necessarily follow that they would demand the same range in an EV. Going to a petrol station every day would be much more inconvenient than plugging in a car every night, so (for those EV users who are able to charge at home) their maximum daily range would be a more reasonable number to use. Additionally many ICEs do not get 800 km to a tank, mine gets around 230 miles / 370 km and many modern small cars are more like 500-550 km real-world miles per tank.

2) The marginal cost of increasing the size of an ICE tank is small, manufacturer's therefore have an incentive to make it large enough to appeal to customers who want long range even if they are a small fraction of total customers. e.g. it may be the case that a majority of ICE customers would be happy with half the tank size, but the manufacturer makes it bigger at low cost to sell a few % more cars.

3) Huge numbers of people do not fill their petrol tanks to the top, I see these people at petrol stations putting in £5 here and £10 there when they get to nearly-empty (before smart pumps there was considerable skill in making it a round-number cost), my brother's car for example is rarely over 1/4 tank. The people who do this must therefore be happy with this greatly reduced range and presumably would be perfectly fine with an EV of equivalent range.

There are people for whom EVs are not currently and may never be a good choice. The existence of those people has no impact on the separate question of if there is a significant number of people for whom they are a practical vehicle. If you need to drive thousands of miles a day don't buy an EV, get a diesel, if you need to transport your 7 children don't buy a motorcycle, if you need to cart lumber around perhaps you shouldn't buy a Ferrari, if you want to plough a field perhaps a VW golf isn't the right tool for the job. And yet no-one argues that motorcycles or Ferraris or VW Golfs are useless vehicles suitable for no-one. I don't get the hate for EVs on this thread, if it's not the right vehicle for you don't buy one, but why argue that they are therefore unsuitable for anyone?
 

Offline ahbushnell

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 456
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1566 on: August 03, 2018, 02:01:18 pm »
EV's with 400 mile range which is generally accepted as needed for a breakthrough in consumer acceptance.
Nope.
That assumption is wrong.
No it is not and it is very easy to understand. Ask yourself why an ICE based car has a fuel tank which takes it around 800km? Why would that be? Is that some kind of arbitrary number? No, it is not. It is what the customers find acceptable. Plain and simple and there is no argueing around it.

Average car 800 km?  That's 500 miles.  I think it's more like 300 miles or 500 km. 

Recharging is a big problem.  How are people in apartments going to charge there car?

Also cross country is a problem.  I drive from California to Texas from time to time.  I used the Tesla map web page to see how a trip in a model 3 would work.  Normally I stop in New Mexico for the night.  There is about 2.5 hours of charging time during the trip to New Mexico.  People say you have to stop and eat anyway.  I would get fat doing that.  One stop is Gila Bend AZ.  Not much there except wind and a hamburger.     

 

Offline NiHaoMike

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5594
  • Country: us
  • "Don't turn it on - Take it apart!"
    • Facebook Page
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1567 on: August 03, 2018, 03:20:53 pm »
The combination of short daily trips and occasional long distance driving is more or less exactly what plug in hybrids are designed for.
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 

Offline nctnico

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 17859
  • Country: nl
    • NCT Developments
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1568 on: August 03, 2018, 03:38:47 pm »
People say you have to stop and eat anyway.
There is another problem with that: try and find a decent restaurant next to a road. I know only one in thousands of kilometers of highway across Europe.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online Kjelt

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5685
  • Country: nl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1569 on: August 03, 2018, 03:47:43 pm »
I don't disagree that range is an issue for many (but not all) people, but there are several logical errors in directly translating ICE range to EV range:

1)  If you take 800 km as the range that people demand in an ICE car, it does not necessarily follow that they would demand the same range in an EV.
Going to a petrol station every day would be much more inconvenient than plugging in a car every night, so (for those EV users who are able to charge at home)
their maximum daily range would be a more reasonable number to use.
Is that why we had this wireless charging topic , because it was so easy to plug in your car every day? Not too mention those who have to find a charging spot coming home in the parkinglot,
there is a trend of people moving to live in cities, which means apartment buildings.

Quote
Additionally many ICEs do not get 800 km to a tank, mine gets around 230 miles / 370 km and many modern small cars are more like 500-550 km real-world miles per tank.
My last three cars from 1999 up to today were Opel stationwagons, with engines with the most hp so not the smallest and they did 600km , 760km and my current one does 800-1000km on a 60 litre tank.
Perhaps a difference between the US and Europe, but indeed smaller cars have smaller tanks but I pray I never have to travel to south of France in a small car like that.

Quote
2) The marginal cost of increasing the size of an ICE tank is small, manufacturer's therefore have an incentive to make it large enough to appeal to customers who want long range
even if they are a small fraction of total customers. e.g. it may be the case that a majority of ICE customers would be happy with half the tank size,
but the manufacturer makes it bigger at low cost to sell a few % more cars.
Agreed with the first part, not the second. Holiday travel on a black saturday as we call it here in Europe you want to drive the 1000kms and only have to wait in line at the gaspump once.
Last year I spent 4 hours waiting in line in Luxembourg to fill up my tank, I wish I just drove further but going off the highway you are trapped.

Quote
3) Huge numbers of people do not fill their petrol tanks to the top, I see these people at petrol stations putting in £5 here and £10 there when they get to nearly-empty
True but those people can't afford an EV, not even a second hand EV ;) I might be discriminating here but the last time I did that I was out of a job.
I see some kids that have to pay themselves do this, students generally speaking the people that look at the gas pump and put in €25 instead of filling her up have money-issues.
And then we are in Europe where you have to pay $7,50 a gallon today.

Quote
There are people for whom EVs are not currently and may never be a good choice.
For some people it is a good choice I don't argue. But that is not the topic now is it?
The topic is when does it become mainstream. Mainstream is the average of carowners.
Look what the average car sold today is and ask why that is, you get your answer right then and there.
 

Offline ahbushnell

  • Frequent Contributor
  • **
  • Posts: 456
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1570 on: August 03, 2018, 06:27:19 pm »
The combination of short daily trips and occasional long distance driving is more or less exactly what plug in hybrids are designed for.

I agree with that.  I just bought my son a used volt.  His drive to work is short so it works great for now.  He lives at home now and can charge it at night.  But he plans to move into an apartment so I'm not sure he will be able to charge the car. 


 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1571 on: August 03, 2018, 06:40:34 pm »
I don't disagree that range is an issue for many (but not all) people, but there are several logical errors in directly translating ICE range to EV range:

1)  If you take 800 km as the range that people demand in an ICE car, it does not necessarily follow that they would demand the same range in an EV.
Going to a petrol station every day would be much more inconvenient than plugging in a car every night, so (for those EV users who are able to charge at home)
their maximum daily range would be a more reasonable number to use.
Is that why we had this wireless charging topic , because it was so easy to plug in your car every day?

Nonsense.  Of course there will always be people trying to introduce new technology that we will discuss here, but that's a red herring. There's wireless charging for phones too but how many people use them?. 

Any actual EV owner (as opposed to many of those pontificating here)  will tell you that one of the best things about owning an BEV or PHEV is the convenience of "filling up" at home while you sleep.  Just as easy and convenient as plugging in your phone.

Quote
Not too mention those who have to find a charging spot coming home in the parkinglot,
there is a trend of people moving to live in cities, which means apartment buildings.

In the US, most apartment buildings have dedicated parking. Once EVs become the norm, these will have charging stations. It's really that simple.  Before autos, there were facilities for horses. Once autos became the norm, there were facilities for them.

When will this happen?  It will be a continual process over the next 20-30 years. EV adoption rates are rising rapidly but have far to go. Public charging station installations are also rapidly rising (see figure below) I think it is likely PHEVs will become increasingly popular as a bridge until wider BEV adoption.

The only thing that may prevent this is that if the adoption is too slow, and as the remaining oil becomes too expensive to extract - economic and social turmoil may prevent society from holding it together enough to put the necessary infrastructure in place and to provide the economic potential for wide EV adoption.  It that happens we're back to horses... :scared:

For those  interested in actual facts this IEA report has a lot of excellent information. First 2 figures below are from that report.  Of course based on most of the responses in this thread, facts will be ignored.




As far as relative ranges. Here's some facts as of 2016 (source). Since then EV and PHEV ranges have only increased.



« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 06:51:38 pm by mtdoc »
 

Online Kjelt

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5685
  • Country: nl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1572 on: August 03, 2018, 07:22:28 pm »
I am on an ipad so editing is a disaster
When will this happen?  It will be a continual process over the next 20-30 years.
So we agree , EVs will not become mainstream anytime soon, thank you.
Quote
For those  interested in actual facts this IEA report has a lot of excellent information. First 2 figures below are from that report.  Of course based on most of the responses in this thread, facts will be ignored.
That graph is total stock, which is not much compared to the global ice stock.
Sales on evs are up so lets look at this Q1 2018 to get the best figures for ev sales since economy is hot and new evs were introduced.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/666130/global-sales-of-electric-vehicles-ytd-by-brand/
Look at VW thats a laughable amount, one dealer sells more VWs than that. It gets better but as you said it takes a long time to become mainstream.
but other brands are doing well, lets total it and we get 0,5% of all car sales are EVs, not bad.
So they sell about 500000 EVs per year of a total carsales nearing the 100 million cars

Quote
far as relative ranges. Here's some facts as of 2016
Average 90mph that is even worse than what I said with 250km, still not enough for mainstream usage.
 

Offline mtdoc

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 3581
  • Country: us
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1573 on: August 03, 2018, 07:33:21 pm »
When will this happen?  It will be a continual process over the next 20-30 years.
So we agree , EVs will not become mainstream anytime soon, thank you.

I consider 20-30 years to be VERY soon. Nothing happens overnight.

Quote
Average 90mph that is even worse than what I said with 250km, still not enough for mainstream usage.

True, but if you read the article, you'll see that that is based on all the BEV models available (as of 2016) which means all the tiny little 2 passenger EVs that have limited range and have been available for a while are impacting those statistics. Current trend is for bigger BEVs with greater range. For example the Nissan Leaf has a range of 151 miles and the Chevy Bolt has a range of 238 miles. And of course now the Tesla model 3 with range of 220 -310 miles.

The trend is clear - BEV ranges are increasing while prices are decreasing.

And of course there is zero range issues with PHEVs
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 07:40:33 pm by mtdoc »
 

Online Kjelt

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 5685
  • Country: nl
Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1574 on: August 03, 2018, 11:22:08 pm »
I consider 20-30 years to be VERY soon. Nothing happens overnight.
ah well that definition is subjective/personal then  :)
On the other forum there are these people without tech knowledge that read the marketing propaganda of battery startup companies claiming amazing breakthroughs if they get funding. They keep thinking and posting that battery energy density will double each two years or so, as if it is silicons Moores law.
I can't convince them that unfortunately this is not the case. Normal people don't get this they see their device batterylifetime go up in a next generation device and dont understand it has a more energy saving processor etc etc in it. And if you tell them then they think it is the same for an EV while you can't save a lot of energy in EVs unless you dramatically decrease its mass and/or speed.
I am glad you are more realistic and do have tech knowledge.
And yeah secretly I do hope they invent a new safe clean portable powersource soon, the world needs it not only for EVs ;)
 


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf