Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 168714 times)

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Offline f4eru

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1625 on: August 08, 2018, 09:24:59 am »
Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

Nope, and Nope.

1) Tesla makes an average of 24% on each and every vehicle sold. The losses come from investing more than that profit into growth.

2) GM/Opel make huge losses on the Bolt/Opel Ampera-e because they produce it in homeopathic quantities. If the volume would go up to 1e6/Y,  many things would happen to reduce the costs, and make that a profitable business:
- High dilution of fixed costs
- Better sourcing agreements, especially for batteries -> much cheaper battery
- redesign of the car to produce it at a lesser cost
- every year, the cost of batteries drom 25-30% anyway.
etcetcetc...

This will all happen next year as EVs are now seriously taking off due to financial, market pressure, and regulations on emissions.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2018, 09:26:52 am by f4eru »
 

Offline Marco

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1626 on: August 08, 2018, 09:45:18 am »
I wonder if you could use existing residential mains wiring to go to a slightly higher voltage DC distribution, no digging, just need to install inverters in every home. Could be combined with HVDC upgrades to the grid for magnetic storm immunity. Regardless of EVs we really need to get working on that.

In principle making AC distribution magnetic storm immune isn't that hard either, "just" need to have a system which can impress a DC voltage on the distribution line to push back against the induced DC voltage on the lines. The magnetic storm puts a fair amount of power in that push, but nothing compared to our grid power and nothing compared to our grid voltage. No one is making the investments though, HVDC would force the issue and is inherently immune (magnetic storm just raises or lower the voltage a bit, the inverters don't really care).
 

Online Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1627 on: August 08, 2018, 12:21:46 pm »
Nope, and Nope.
Yes and Yes.

Quote
1) Tesla makes an average of 24% on each and every vehicle sold. The losses come from investing more than that profit into growth.
There is a reason they are now only selling the most expensive Model3's first and have not shipped any of the start models. Even experts question at the moment they can make a profit on the starter models of the Model 3. We'll see.

Quote
2) GM/Opel make huge losses on the Bolt/Opel Ampera-e because they produce it in homeopathic quantities. If the volume would go up to 1e6/Y
Yes there will be quantity related discounts but some things just don't add up.

Quote
- Better sourcing agreements, especially for batteries -> much cheaper battery
- every year, the cost of batteries drom 25-30% anyway.
This is and will remain the biggest problem to face, see the picture of the best guestimates made last year by Bloomberg.

Quote
This will all happen next year as EVs are now seriously taking off due to financial, market pressure, and regulations on emissions.
Serious ? We'll see, I don't think it will exponentially grow next year.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1628 on: August 08, 2018, 03:24:45 pm »
Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

As if that’s a first for them....  American tax payers and tax payer money bail them out not to long ago.  If we saved GM from bankruptcy womder if we will save Tesla motors as welll.  Me thinks nor.

Got to hand it to Elon.  He”s taken on one of the most political influencail industries in the United States and has been able to produce a decent product people want.  We can talk smack all about Tesla and EV cars all we want but give credit to Elon were credit is due.  That guy is making a quality product people are buying.  And he’s doing it as the car companies like GM are politically trying to put him out of business.

The comments in this forum about EVs have been interesting.  I think what we have found is EV cars is they are not for everybody and some places might not have the infrastructure to deal with EVs.

We know car exhaust is a major contributor to man caused climate change so we bertter get off our rears and do something before our planet’s atomhere resembles Venus.  With companies and political leaders not wanting to make changes as quickly as what’s needed, it’s up to the people to make it happen.

Yesin many places the grid can’t handle folks plugin cars, but you know similar thing happened here in California with water.  People purchased homes and expected to have water.  When there wasn’t enough.....  We found a way to get it.  (Let’s just leave out the part we stole if from other states.)  My point, if more people buy plugin EVs and there’s not enough electricity or infrastructure to support it you had better believe politicians will see to the infrastructure will be upgraded and charging stations will be installed.  And if we don’t have the power plants to generate the power I’m sure people’e opinion on nuclear power will quickly change as they won’t want to sit in the dark for long,

As I have stated several times, I own an EV and the next car I purchase will also be an EV.  I will never buy an ICE  vehicle unless I have to.  ICE vehicles suck, but that dosn’t mean I won’t drive one when I have to.  But if I have a choice, I would prefer to drive an EV.

For all of you folks who think EV suck, try taking one for a test drive.  And even if you don’t like EVs be thankful for everyone who has purchased one.  We still might be contributing to global warming in that coal might be the energy source for the electricty, but at least it’s not in my state.  All of that pollution and radioactive waste is in another state so it’s there problem.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1629 on: August 08, 2018, 04:50:57 pm »
Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

Nope, and Nope.

1) Tesla makes an average of 24% on each and every vehicle sold. The losses come from investing more than that profit into growth.

2) GM/Opel make huge losses on the Bolt/Opel Ampera-e because they produce it in homeopathic quantities. If the volume would go up to 1e6/Y,  many things would happen to reduce the costs, and make that a profitable business:
- High dilution of fixed costs
- Better sourcing agreements, especially for batteries -> much cheaper battery
- redesign of the car to produce it at a lesser cost
- every year, the cost of batteries drom 25-30% anyway.
etcetcetc...

This will all happen next year as EVs are now seriously taking off due to financial, market pressure, and regulations on emissions.


What a bunch of marketing spin.


Got to love this one.....

- Better sourcing agreements, especially for batteries -> much cheaper battery  -  We've only been trying to do that for over 100 years.  Dude take a physics and chemsitry class or even watch one of Dave's videos.  THere is energy looss in the chemical reactions to chnarge and discharge batteries.  Acording to Dave there's a 20% loss in charning and 20% loss when discharging.  Just how exactly can they be made cheaper?  We've been making batteries for well over 100 years.  One would think in 100 years we are making them as inexpensivly as possible by now.

- redesign of the car to produce it at a lesser cost  - Dude you don't think cars are made cheaply now?  In over 100 years of car desinging you don't think the thousands of car designers aren't pressured into saving every penny they can in designing cars?  Curd man, the metal fasteners which were once used are now plastic.  What exactly do you think can be done to make produce the cars at a lower cost?  Slave labor?

- every year, the cost of batteries drom 25-30% anyway. - Hahaha.....  I've been hearing that over the past 10 years.  By now the battereis should be free.

Now this one is the best.....
This will all happen next year as EVs are now seriously taking off due to financial, market pressure, and regulations on emissions.

This line has been on and off for 40 - 50 years.  Ever since the gas lines since the 1970s.  And every year since the Prius, Leaf, Volt and other EV vehicles hit the market.  Dude look at the sales figures over the past 10 years.  It's like comparing the amount of water in spit as what's in a swimming pool.  In 10 - 15 years of EV sales is it even 1%?  Don't think so.

If you really want EV car sales to take off the car companies will need to give cash incentives to the sales people.  As soon as those commissioned sales people start making make EVs is when sales will take off.  Until then, don't expect much.  Right now selling an ICE is much easier than selling an EV.

Insteand of just repeating the BS marketing hype try using some critical thinking skills you hopefully have learned.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1630 on: August 08, 2018, 06:58:39 pm »
News about Tesla.....  Elon has plans to take it private. Ans the stock soars.

What a brilliant way to get people to invest in your company without selling share of stock or taking out any loans.


Just as brilliant as getting a half-billion dollar loan tax free by having people put a cash deposit on a car 2-3 years before it becomes available.


The man is just as clever and being a BS marketer as Nikola Tesla was.
 

Online Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1631 on: August 08, 2018, 08:51:57 pm »
This will probably not go unpunished.
Communication from mgt of a stockmarket company is bound by strict rules as to not influence the market.
Tweeting like Donald on the middle of the day when the markets are open that you going to buy your own stock at $420 while it is tradi g at 375 something can be considered stock market manipulation.
Inteesting to see what reprimands will follow.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1632 on: August 08, 2018, 10:06:54 pm »
I know dictators and kings can get away with stuff like that.  But the President of the United States?  Oh wait, that's happened before,... And not just once.  We just like to say an make it appear that a capitalistic democratic republic is better than all other forms of government and less corrupt. But in the end are we really any better?
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1633 on: August 09, 2018, 01:28:09 am »
Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

Oh please!  ::) The initial FUD about Volts being sold at a loss, spread by the anti-EV crowd in 2012 after the Volts introduction, was based on the erroneous idea that if you divide the initial development costs of a new product with new technology by the first few years sales you are “selling them at a loss”. 

Of course this ignores the fact that if the priduct is a success - as the Volt clearly has been- then after a few years those development costs will have been recouped. And of course that new technology will now also be available to employ in other products.

How many electronics products could be said to be “sold at a loss” using the same simple minded logic.?

On an engineering forum of all places the reality of development costs versus lifetime sales and profits should be understood. It’s shocking that some here might not get it.

GM sells over 20k Volts a year. I can assure you they are not being sold at a loss.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2018, 01:31:51 am by mtdoc »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1634 on: August 09, 2018, 04:33:01 am »
Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

Oh please!  ::) The initial FUD about Volts being sold at a loss, spread by the anti-EV crowd in 2012 after the Volts introduction, was based on the erroneous idea that if you divide the initial development costs of a new product with new technology by the first few years sales you are “selling them at a loss”. 

Of course this ignores the fact that if the priduct is a success - as the Volt clearly has been- then after a few years those development costs will have been recouped. And of course that new technology will now also be available to employ in other products.

How many electronics products could be said to be “sold at a loss” using the same simple minded logic.?

On an engineering forum of all places the reality of development costs versus lifetime sales and profits should be understood. It’s shocking that some here might not get it.

GM sells over 20k Volts a year. I can assure you they are not being sold at a loss.

While I completely agree with everything you say....  Your last sentence has me wondering if GM is not receiving a tax credit, carbon credit or some other subsidy.  I am sure a company like GM would not sell a product as complex as a car which comes with liabilities and warranty repairs  at a loss.  But I am wondering if there's not some under the table dealing that's going on.


Most companies will destroy product rather than sell at a loss.  Selling a brand name item at a discount only cheapens the brand. 
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1635 on: August 09, 2018, 05:54:48 am »
StarTalk pod cast on Formula E or EV racing cars.  Formula E.
Formula E is an auto racing series that strictly uses electric-powered cars.

Of particular interest is the discussion about the batteries.
Paul McNamara, Technical Director at Williams Advanced Engineering, the company that makes all the batteries for every team.  Unlike an ICE Formula One race car which is heavier and only around 30% efficient.  Formula E EV race cars are about 80% efficient and the power or HP delivered to the wheel in instantaneous.  EV race cars are adding a new dimension to automobile racing.
What’s really interesting is technology and software used in Formula E race cars makes its way into consumer production vehicles in only a year or two.

This podcast is well worth listening too.  Something else that's interesting is well known Formula One racing teams are defecting over to Formula E racing.

Formula E racing is really going to "push" the development and adoption of EV cars.  Funny no one has thought about or even mentioned this before.

https://www.startalkradio.net/show/the-electrifying-world-of-formula-e/


 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1636 on: August 09, 2018, 08:59:45 am »
I doubt Formula 1 cars are only 30% efficient. They use very new ICE principles and have a limited amount of fuel. Besides that formula 1 cars have hybrid (electric + ICE) drive systems.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1637 on: August 09, 2018, 09:00:28 am »
Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

Oh please!  ::) The initial FUD about Volts being sold at a loss, spread by the anti-EV crowd in 2012 after the Volts introduction, was based on the erroneous idea that if you divide the initial development costs of a new product with new technology by the first few years sales you are “selling them at a loss”. 

Of course this ignores the fact that if the priduct is a success - as the Volt clearly has been- then after a few years those development costs will have been recouped. And of course that new technology will now also be available to employ in other products.

How many electronics products could be said to be “sold at a loss” using the same simple minded logic.?

On an engineering forum of all places the reality of development costs versus lifetime sales and profits should be understood. It’s shocking that some here might not get it.

GM sells over 20k Volts a year. I can assure you they are not being sold at a loss.
Your assurance is worth nil nada zilch because yes they are loosing money on each and every ev car, most recent articles still say so.
I heard about this LAST year when the PSA group bought the Opel/Vauxhall from GM which sells the Volt as the Opel Ampera at a loss of €10k per €45k car which is huge!
PSA stopped sales immediately.

Better Google and you see that GM hopes to make a profit on EVs in 2021 when battery prices keep on going down. i get it that an initial investment takes time to make a profit but we are talking about ten years. Some companies do not last ten years.
https://insideevs.com/gm-reportedly-suffered-12000-loss-per-ampera-e-bolt-sold-opel/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-electric-insight/gm-races-to-build-a-formula-for-profitable-electric-cars-idUSKBN1EY0GG
https://insideevs.com/moodys-says-automakers-lose-7000-to-10000-per-electric-car-sold/



« Last Edit: August 09, 2018, 09:03:53 am by Kjelt »
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1638 on: August 09, 2018, 11:01:20 am »
Volts just as Teslas are sold with huge losses.
I don't think GM likes 1e06 Volts sold, it would bankrupt them.

Oh please!  ::) The initial FUD about Volts being sold at a loss, spread by the anti-EV crowd in 2012 after the Volts introduction, was based on the erroneous idea that if you divide the initial development costs of a new product with new technology by the first few years sales you are “selling them at a loss”. 

Of course this ignores the fact that if the priduct is a success - as the Volt clearly has been- then after a few years those development costs will have been recouped. And of course that new technology will now also be available to employ in other products.

How many electronics products could be said to be “sold at a loss” using the same simple minded logic.?

On an engineering forum of all places the reality of development costs versus lifetime sales and profits should be understood. It’s shocking that some here might not get it.

GM sells over 20k Volts a year. I can assure you they are not being sold at a loss.
Your assurance is worth nil nada zilch because yes they are loosing money on each and every ev car, most recent articles still say so.
I heard about this LAST year when the PSA group bought the Opel/Vauxhall from GM which sells the Volt as the Opel Ampera at a loss of €10k per €45k car which is huge!
PSA stopped sales immediately.

Better Google and you see that GM hopes to make a profit on EVs in 2021 when battery prices keep on going down. i get it that an initial investment takes time to make a profit but we are talking about ten years. Some companies do not last ten years.
https://insideevs.com/gm-reportedly-suffered-12000-loss-per-ampera-e-bolt-sold-opel/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-electric-insight/gm-races-to-build-a-formula-for-profitable-electric-cars-idUSKBN1EY0GG
https://insideevs.com/moodys-says-automakers-lose-7000-to-10000-per-electric-car-sold/

Ah I see the reason for your confusion and error. 

Those articles are about the GM Bolt not the GM Volt.  The Bolt is a BEV that was just released in 2017, so it’s not surprising.

 The Volt on the other hand was released 8 years ago and is a PHEV with a much smaller battery.

BTW, what idiot at GM decided to have 2 cars whose name only differs by one letter? :palm:
« Last Edit: August 09, 2018, 11:08:09 am by mtdoc »
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1639 on: August 09, 2018, 11:25:00 am »
BTW, what idiot at GM decided to have 2 cars whose name only differs by one letter? :palm:
Perhaps when they named the Bolt they knew how badly they intended to screw up its marketing.
 

Online Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1640 on: August 09, 2018, 12:39:43 pm »
Ah ok my mistake then, no I am only talking 100% EVs here, in Europe there are reserved parking spots for EVs to charge and hybrids are not allowed even (€250 fine)
Hybrids I already see as ntegrated and accepted, it is the full EV solution that is still problematic IMO and will take quite some time, i provements and cost reductionsto be as usable as ices and hybrids.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1641 on: August 09, 2018, 12:46:16 pm »
Ah ok my mistake then, no I am only talking 100% EVs here, in Europe there are reserved parking spots for EVs to charge and hybrids are not allowed even (€250 fine)
Hybrids I already see as ntegrated and accepted, it is the full EV solution that is still problematic IMO and will take quite some time, i provements and cost reductionsto be as usable as ices and hybrids.
The Volt is a PHEV. In the UK PHEVs plug in and charge up at reserved parking spots. I see lots of Mitsubishi Outlander PHEVs at those charging stations.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1642 on: August 09, 2018, 02:55:59 pm »
Ah ok my mistake then, no I am only talking 100% EVs here, in Europe there are reserved parking spots for EVs to charge and hybrids are not allowed even (€250 fine)
Hybrids I already see as ntegrated and accepted, it is the full EV solution that is still problematic IMO and will take quite some time, i provements and cost reductionsto be as usable as ices and hybrids.

You need to distinguish between parallel hybrids and plug in hybrids (serial hybrids) whuch truly are EVs just with shorter all electric range than BEVs and with a “range extender” ICE. Many people like me, drive them almost entirely in all electric mode.

I’ve never seen a public charging station that does not allow PHEVs. As mentioned, the Outlander PHEV is popular in the  UK. It was just released in the US a few months ago.
 

Online Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1643 on: August 09, 2018, 04:06:21 pm »
It is not as much a public charging station as a parking spot which are reserved for EVs to charge.
An EV sometimes need hours of charging to get 20-40% while a hybrid often is charged within an hour and even with a flat battery it will run on its ice engine.
 

Offline coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1644 on: August 09, 2018, 04:15:40 pm »
It is not as much a public charging station as a parking spot which are reserved for EVs to charge.
An EV sometimes need hours of charging to get 20-40% while a hybrid often is charged within an hour and even with a flat battery it will run on its ice engine.
Most public charging bays are in places like shopping mall car parks. People are typically only there for the sort of time it takes a PHEV to charge for the trip home. Without that, the PHEV will probably need to use some gas on the way home. These points seem far more valuable for PHEVs than for EVs, which can usually do the round trip to the shops with ease.
 

Online GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1645 on: August 09, 2018, 08:46:58 pm »
EV race cars are adding a new dimension to automobile racing.

But F1 cars are much faster, about 100 mph more than any FE, more powerful, weight much less and generate tons of downforce, and FE EVs run out of juice pretty fast, so there's no way an FE can do, say, 67 laps at Hockenheim, or a 1 1/2 hour race. In other words, there's no comparison.
git diff *
 

Offline labjr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1646 on: August 09, 2018, 09:28:27 pm »
I would never get an electric car until the total cost of ownership, per mile, for the life of the car, is less than a gas powered model. And is just as convenient to refuel. I don't care about the environment any more than Al Gore does. Which is zero! I need to get from point A to point B as inexpensively as possible.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1647 on: August 09, 2018, 09:39:49 pm »
I would never get an electric car until the total cost of ownership, per mile, for the life of the car, is less than a gas powered model. And is just as convenient to refuel. I don't care about the environment any more than Al Gore does. Which is zero! I need to get from point A to point B as inexpensively as possible.

Then you should get one now since there are several available for which lifetime cost of ownership is less than equivalent ICE and even more convenient to refuel.  But I suspect you are really more just out to make a political statement.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1648 on: August 09, 2018, 10:40:16 pm »
You skipped over the 'equally convenient to refuel'. If labjr has no private parking space and/or needs to drive long distances than the current crop of EVs is utterly useless to him.

And we even didn't get to the costs part. The price difference of the EV compared to ICE gets you about 150k to 200k km further before break even at very high fuel prices using an efficient car. Factor in electricity at 20 cents per kWh then that distance will cost you at least around $6750 for the electricity (no, electricity from solar panels isn't free either). That buys you enough fuel for another 84000km. So the actual financial break even point is way beyond 250k km. By that time the battery of the EV is likely to have issues.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #1649 on: August 09, 2018, 10:45:00 pm »
  :horse: :horse: :horse:
 


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