When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[DougSpindler]

At San Diego State University they charge the students .70$/kW-hr. Here the on peak rate is .45.

Nice scare tactic; here are the real prices.  But the question really is, why charge at work, when you can do so at home for 0.12/kWh off-peak.

If you can't charge at home for example.  The world is bigger than your front lawn.

exactly, the world is bigger than just the SD State Univ parking garages. There are plenty of other lower-cost alternatives in San Diego, OR you could charge at home. I would guess that  everyone living in the United States has access to some parking, somewhere near a regular wall outlet, which will allow you to put 60-80km (less than most people drive/day) into your car overnight.

I have friends that own EVs and only use their 120V @ 10A regular outlet to charge it; I'm a little luckier as it was relatively easy to add a 240V / 30A in my garage.

If one drives an EV to school or work and can’t chage the batteries then doesn’t it defeat the purpose of purchasing an electric car? 

I live in the US/California and have an EV.  I can’t always find a pace to charge.  Or I’ve seen long lines at charging stations.  So while you are are paining a rosey picture picture there are still many thorns.  So while things are slowly improving for greatly improving for EV owners let’s be honest.

Place where I work just installed several hundred solar panels ay two separate sites.  Guess how many EV charging spaces they installed.  Zero. If I need to charge my car I have park and then walk 3 males to get to work,

Just as the building of gas stations took 100 years, let’s hope with the helpf of governemental laws EV charginging stations will take substationaly less.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

And when you leave your car at the charging spot, you've got to come back 1/2 an hour later to remove it. At least in Barcelona, that's what the taxi driver says.

[jh15]

Is the taxi driver in an ICE car? What's he pay for gas and maintenance?
When I hear of Tesla battery life being in the 300,000 miles of life, it is taxi companies.

Unless you are going on a long trip, your Tesla is charged overnight at home. If a long trip superchargers are within range now anywhere in the USA, plus destination chargers everywhere.

Tesla built out the charging network (gas stations) early on.

I use 2 outlets to get 13 amps at 220 volts in my garage. I never had the 50 amp 240 outlet put in, have the wire and stuff for 2 years, waiting to have other house upgrades.

The first few months we had the car I just plugged it into a 120v outlet.

[nctnico]

Still charging adds hours to a long trip  Tesla didn't solve the long charging times.

BTW it seems the production of Cobalt needs to be increased a lot otherwise production of batteries can't be expanded (even if new batteries are invented which need much less Cobalt). The effects may show as early as 2020 and could bring the EV adoption (if there is even going to be one) to a grinding halt.

[DougSpindler]

BTW it seems the production of Cobalt needs to be increased a lot otherwise production of batteries can't be expanded (even if new batteries are invented which need much less Cobalt). The effects may show as early as 2020 and could bring the EV adoption (if there is even going to be one) to a grinding halt.

Or might not and greatly increase the adoption of EV cars. 

[nctnico]

BTW it seems the production of Cobalt needs to be increased a lot otherwise production of batteries can't be expanded (even if new batteries are invented which need much less Cobalt). The effects may show as early as 2020 and could bring the EV adoption (if there is even going to be one) to a grinding halt.

Or might not and greatly increase the adoption of EV cars.

No, Cobalt shortage is a real thing. The price went up by several hundred percent over the past couple of years. Currently over 60% of the world's production comes from Congo. Google it. Sure most car manufacturers will say they secured a supply but if some Congelese war lord is deciding to sell to the highest bidder then they are screwed. And good luck trying to sue a Congelese war lord.

[NiHaoMike]

Not all EV batteries use cobalt - in fact regular lithium cobalt is not a very good choice for an EV due to its flammability. (Tesla somehow tweaked the chemistry to be less flammable.) For example, the Nissan Leaf uses lithium manganese.

[nctnico]

Not all EV batteries use cobalt - in fact regular lithium cobalt is not a very good choice for an EV due to its flammability. (Tesla somehow tweaked the chemistry to be less flammable.) For example, the Nissan Leaf uses lithium manganese.

It seems the truth is in the middle. Lithium manganese seem the have 33% less capacity compared to Cobalt based batteries. According to this article most Li-ion batteries use Cobalt in combination with Nickel and Manganese to get optimal performance:
https://batteryuniversity.com/index.php/learn/article/types_of_lithium_ion

From an interview with Tesla it seems it will be difficult to get rid of Cobalt at all:
https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/21/17488626/elon-musk-cobalt-electric-vehicle-battery-science

[Marco]

Sure most car manufacturers will say they secured a supply but if some Congelese war lord is deciding to sell to the highest bidder then they are screwed. And good luck trying to sue a Congelese war lord.

That depends what you mean with secure. Western companies secure with contracts, China secures with a private military force.

[nctnico]

Sure most car manufacturers will say they secured a supply but if some Congelese war lord is deciding to sell to the highest bidder then they are screwed. And good luck trying to sue a Congelese war lord.

That depends what you mean with secure. Western companies secure with contracts, China secures with a private military force.

Well then explain what a contract is worth to a Congolese war lord. If a supplier has no supply then they can't deliver. Even with hefty fines for breach of contract the car manufacturer may still be left with no batteries.

[Marco]

China simply hires one of the warlords to shoot at all the others, still might go wrong ... but you're not relying on a non existent rule of law at least.

[SiliconWizard]

Uh huh. It takes some pragmatism and a pinch of wisdom to both act responsibly and have a strategic vision.

No amount of "securing" will help long-term supply when you're dealing with countries that are potentially uncontrollable and highly unpredictable. Local governments accepting bribery - do you really think they can be trusted to begin with? Conversely, they may themselves have many reasons not to trust us either. Having to eventually resort to military force to get the raw materials we need isn't necessarily very pretty either, nor a stable supply model.

Claming that the supply is secured may work for short-minded investors, but I think it's very far from being secured for the time being.

[Marco]

Well if you're really pragmatic you can do it old school ... fly in some mercenaries and install a new government every time the old one gets out of line. It doesn't take a whole lot of disciplined well trained troops to topple an African government.

[nctnico]

Well if you're really pragmatic you can do it old school ... fly in some mercenaries and install a new government every time the old one gets out of line. It doesn't take a whole lot of disciplined well trained troops to topple an African government.

As if that strategy worked in the middle east 

[MadScientist]

Year over year ICE auto sales turned down in September (usually the strongest month). Historically, this has been a harbinger of coming recession.  Meanwhile EV sales have continued to grow at a rapid rate.

Overall, 1st world ICE auto sales have been relatively flat for the past 20 years.  However when you add in the developing world (esp China) there has been modest growth.

In all cases - over the past few years, EV sales growth has far,far surpassed ICE sales growth (if any).

My prediction is that ICE auto sales will continue to stagnate while EV sales growth continues its exponential growth pattern. Eventually, in 20 years or so we'll be in a place where the large majority of auto sales will be EVs though overall total auto sales will never again reach current levels. Globally, the economy is peaking.

It's easier to go from selling, say, 10 thousand cars a year to 40 thousand cars a year, wow, 400% growth! But that's just 30 thousand more cars. OTOH "stagnated" at 3.1% year to year growth when you're selling 79 million cars a year, that's 2.5 million more on top of that 79 millions:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/

PEVs are (5.4e6) still less than 0.4% of the total (1.3e9), and most of that 0.4% are hybrids, thus ICEs anyway, not BEVs.

Hybrids are the only way they're managing to push EVs down our throats, other than forbidding ICEs which seems to be on the agenda of the dummies that rule us, or so it seems.

In Ireland , where diesel reigns supreme , we have a small but increasing EV population largely incentivized by some purchase tax breaks .  The percentage of BEVs is twice that of plug in hybrids , which are largely a waste of money ( the punters never return the extra cost of purchase n fuel savings )

I drive a 30 kWh Leaf and will most likely upgrade to the 60 kWh 200bhp version next year , living on an island where nearly all single journeys are under 200km and many are well under 100km, EVs will in the next few years largely suffice    for all journeys and will not require any public charging , my own view is that public charging will be confined to major transport routes will large capacity multi station charging facilities , that will be quite expensive to access

There s no doubt that once you drive an EV , you never want to go back to the 19th century bag of boots that is an ICE car.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

There s no doubt that once you drive an EV , you never want to go back to the 19th century bag of boots that is an ICE car.

YMMV, I have a BEV too but most often choose to drive my diesel ICE.

[IanMacdonald]

This is the way it is now, a taxi in Barcelona searching for a free spot to recharge his EV:

I could see this being like flying in IMC You'd need to allow maybe double the range you actually want to travel, because you may not be able to 'land' when you get there! 

[DougSpindler]

There s no doubt that once you drive an EV , you never want to go back to the 19th century bag of boots that is an ICE car.

YMMV, I have a BEV too but most often choose to drive my diesel ICE.

Why do you drive you prefer to drive your diesel over BEV?

[DougSpindler]

Tesla car charging woes.   
In Silicon Valley are Tesla car sales have done well, but there’s a problem.  Tesla has not installed enough fast charging stations to meet current demand.  It’s not uncommon for folks to have to wait 4 hours for a charge.

And in Marin County, one of the wealthiest counties in the country there is a Tesla showroom.  But here’s the catch if you buy a Tesla.....  There are no fast charging stations in all of Marin county.

People are questioning if they should by a Tesla if they can’t get it charged.

[boffin]

This is the way it is now, a taxi in Barcelona searching for a free spot to recharge his EV:

I could see this being like flying in IMC You'd need to allow maybe double the range you actually want to travel, because you may not be able to 'land' when you get there! 

The really stupid argument here is that an electric car stops in exactly the same way when it runs out of charge, that an ICE car does when it runs out of fuel. Just that right now there are a few more public places to get fuel.

As for aircraft, you rarely would be carrying "twice the fuel" you needed, unless it was a very very short flight.
Fuel Required (general aviation):  (Origin -> Destination -> missed approach, divert to alternate + 45 mins)

Unlike aviation though, cars don't create life threatening situations when they run out of fuel.

[boffin]

The median commute distance in Canada is 7.7km ea way, or let's call that 16km/day.  An EV typically will get better than 20kWh/100km, or perhaps 3.2kWh of energy.

As most cars are parked overnight in a garage/carport/alongside house/apartment, I'd like to introduce my complete solution for at least 50% of the population when it comes to charging, to provide
a minimum of 1kW of charge, or the median commute in just 3.2 hours.  Just imagine with a typical overnight parking of 12-16 hours you too could have FOUR times what you need in terms of EV charging, without lining up at public facilities.

I call it "The Regular Wall Outlet" (may vary by jurisdiction - EU and AU versions are even faster than NA versions)

[DougSpindler]

And what if live in an apparent building where there is no wall outlet where the car is parked?  A land lord is not inclined to install outlet in every parking space for renters.  Only place renters can charge is at work or a public charging station..... but the wait can take up to 4 hours.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

The really stupid argument here is that an electric car stops in exactly the same way when it runs out of charge, that an ICE car does when it runs out of fuel. Just that right now there are a few more public places to get fuel.

There are less, and on top of that it takes a lot longer to refill. And the more EVs there are, it will only get worse. And you keep saying it's cheap thanks to night tariffs, but you won't have those at the charging spots.

[nctnico]

This is the way it is now, a taxi in Barcelona searching for a free spot to recharge his EV:

I could see this being like flying in IMC You'd need to allow maybe double the range you actually want to travel, because you may not be able to 'land' when you get there! 

The really stupid argument here is that an electric car stops in exactly the same way when it runs out of charge, that an ICE car does when it runs out of fuel. Just that right now there are a few more public places to get fuel.

That is not a stupid argument. With an ICE car you'd also be wise to not drive around with a nearly empty fuel tank. Even in Germany there can be over 100km between gas stations and there may be a traffic jam, the gas station may be closed, a detour, etc. Still with an ICE car you are back on the road again with a full tank in 5 minutes ready to drive another 700km.

[ljwinkler]

This is the way it is now, a taxi in Barcelona searching for a free spot to recharge his EV:

I could see this being like flying in IMC You'd need to allow maybe double the range you actually want to travel, because you may not be able to 'land' when you get there! 

The really stupid argument here is that an electric car stops in exactly the same way when it runs out of charge, that an ICE car does when it runs out of fuel. Just that right now there are a few more public places to get fuel.

That is not a stupid argument. With an ICE car you'd also be wise to not drive around with a nearly empty fuel tank. Even in Germany there can be over 100km between gas stations and there may be a traffic jam, the gas station may be closed, a detour, etc. Still with an ICE car you are back on the road again with a full tank in 5 minutes ready to drive another 700km.

And you can ask a colleague to bring you 5l of fuel in a can... or you can have a spare 20l canister in your car. At the minute you can't do this with batteries, not even having a full boot of 2AAs