When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

Elon is a loudmouth and youtube is also full of vidjeos of tesla owners that have been pissed off in one way or another by Tesla.

[DougSpindler]

Elon is a loudmouth and youtube is also full of vidjeos of tesla owners that have been pissed off in one way or another by Tesla.

Be fair...  Elon is a drug smoking loaf mouth.  There are just as many pissed off people posting on YouTube as their are people who love their Tesla.   But that true for any make of car.

[apis]

The Fukashima incident is a very telling illustrator of the irrational fear of nuclear.  Fifteen thousand people are killed and no one goes around saying you can never build or live near a coastline again.  But a few people may die a few years earlier because of the radiation from the nuclear element of the disaster and there are people all over saying nuclear power should be eliminated.

Indeed, the 2004 tsunami in the indian ocean: 227,898 dead. Clearly insanity to stay more than 1 km from the ocean. And how can anyone choose to live in places where hurricanes strike every other year?

People happily light coal fires in their backyard every summer, drive around in lethal gas powered juggernauts while at the same time demanding nuclear power plants be shut down and replaced with coal power plants. It's madness. 

[apis]

Soon-ish self driving taxis (robotaxis) will begin taking over and in a not too distant future most people won't own their own car but just use an app on their phone to call for a cab which then will take them anywhere. That means it will be the fleet operators that decide which type of fuel they will use and for the most part it makes more economic sense for them to have electric vehicles. Range is less of a problem then, you might have to switch car once or twice if you are making a long journey, but that is not so bad.

[DougSpindler]

Soon-ish self driving taxis (robotaxis) will begin taking over and in a not too distant future most people won't own their own car but just use an app on their phone to call for a cab which then will take them anywhere. That means it will be the fleet operators that decide which type of fuel they will use and for the most part it makes more economic sense for them to have electric vehicles. Range is less of a problem then, you might have to switch car once or twice if you are making a long journey, but that is not so bad.

With driverless being in our soon-ish future for the last 50 years I am sure you are correct.  But what are we going to put in our garages if we have two and three car garage homes?  Ahh, the flying cars which for the past 70 years everybody be flying soon to avoid all of the traffic on the roads.

The Luddites in Arizona are doing all they can to turn soonish to never sh by throwing rocks and bottles at the test cars.  And slashing tires when they can.  They found when they do this they don’t get yelled at or shot by the autonomous driver.

I would sure like to hear how these self driving cars do with real driving conditions and just not clear days in Arizona.  How do they do in the snow when the rods are covered in slush, mud, snow or one of those Arizona sandstorms?

[coppice]

The Luddites in Arizona are doing all they can to turn soonish to never sh by throwing rocks and bottles at the test cars.  And slashing tires when they can.  They found when they do this they don’t get yelled at or shot by the autonomous driver.

Are they Luddites? They say they do these things because they get so pissed off by the erratic behaviour the automated cars frequently display.

I would sure like to hear how these self driving cars do with real driving conditions and just not clear days in Arizona.  How do they do in the snow when the rods are covered in slush, mud, snow or one of those Arizona sandstorms?

Current automated cars are heavily geofenced. They won't go where their extremely detailed maps can't currently take them, and they are only being operated in places which never experience snow. They have issues with rain, fog, and presumably sandstorms. I assume a migration from LIDAR to (LWIR)DAR would help with the fog and rain, but I doubt it would fix sandstorm or snow issues.

[apis]

With driverless being in our soon-ish future for the last 50 years I am sure you are correct.  But what are we going to put in our garages if we have two and three car garage homes?

Ahh, the flying cars which for the past 70 years everybody be flying soon to avoid all of the traffic on the roads.

Really, I never heard anyone talk seriously about driverless until after Stanley won the DARPA grand challenge in 2006 (driving on dirt roads in the desert btw).

If by flying cars one means self flying aircraft, the technology already exist. It's simpler to program than a car since you don't have to deal with pedestrians and contradictory traffic rules. If one can make a business out of it is another question.

The Luddites in Arizona are doing all they can to turn soonish to never sh by throwing rocks and bottles at the test cars.  And slashing tires when they can.  They found when they do this they don’t get yelled at or shot by the autonomous driver.

They might get yelled at by the passengers, and ehm, since it's in the US they might even get shot I suppose.

I would sure like to hear how these self driving cars do with real driving conditions and just not clear days in Arizona.  How do they do in the snow when the rods are covered in slush, mud, snow or one of those Arizona sandstorms?

I don't think they can do snow yet but rain is not a problem anymore. It's not that it is impossible to drive without super detailed maps, it's just that it's safer and possible so that's what they do. Of course they are introduced where it's easiest first.

[CatalinaWOW]

I have never understood why driving in snow is a requirement for a self driving car.  It is clear that a huge percentage of human drivers can't.  And a huge percentage of those don't realize their incompetence, and go ahead and drive anyway.

[DougSpindler]

Really, I never heard anyone talk seriously about driverless until after Stanley won the DARPA grand challenge in 2006 (driving on dirt roads in the desert btw).

Where haver you been for the past 70 years?

https://youtu.be/F2iRDYnzwtk 

If by flying cars one means self flying aircraft, the technology already exist. It's simpler to program than a car since you don't have to deal with pedestrians and contradictory traffic rules. If one can make a business out of it is another question.

No, no no  There were many flying cars.   Cars that would actually fly. 

[apis]

The gas turbine and juice dispenser was a bit silly but didn't I spot a gps navigator, two way radio and on-demand tv? 

Their auto pilot seemed to be more like Tesla cruise control though, more primitive than that since it required a separate specialised road. Same with the second video, it relied on special markings in the road, so more like line following robots. If there were special roads and special rules for self driving cars it would be much easier to implement.

I suppose people have been dreaming about self driving cars for a long time, but there haven't really been anyone investing a lot of money into building something that's commercially available.

[DougSpindler]

The gas turbine and juice dispenser was a bit silly but didn't I spot a gps navigator, two way radio and on-demand tv? 

Their auto pilot seemed to be more like Tesla cruise control though, more primitive than that since it required a separate specialised road. Same with the second video, it relied on special markings in the road, so more like line following robots. If there were special roads and special rules for self driving cars it would be much easier to implement.

I suppose people have been dreaming about self driving cars for a long time, but there haven't really been anyone investing a lot of money into building something that's commercially available.

In 1971 we had turn by turn voice navigation.   Don't you remember?

https://youtu.be/KliWHCzE16c


https://youtu.be/KliWHCzE16c

[nctnico]

I have never understood why driving in snow is a requirement for a self driving car.  It is clear that a huge percentage of human drivers can't.  And a huge percentage of those don't realize their incompetence, and go ahead and drive anyway.

You clearly have not visited places like Finland in the winter.

[CatalinaWOW]

I have never understood why driving in snow is a requirement for a self driving car.  It is clear that a huge percentage of human drivers can't.  And a huge percentage of those don't realize their incompetence, and go ahead and drive anyway.

You clearly have not visited places like Finland in the winter.

I was born in snow country and have driven in snow a lot.  My point wasn't that it is never necessary to drive in snow, only to question why self driving cars have to be better than human drivers.  Here in the US every time it snows the news channels are filled with pictures of people driving into ditches, spinning around corners, driving into the backs of strings of stopped traffic and the like.  That happens in the heart of snow country and is perhaps worse in regions that only intermittently or rarely get snow.
Maybe that doesn't happen in Finland, and if not it might make sense to ban self driving cars at their current state of development from Finland.

By my understanding self driving cars are far better at skid control and braking than humans already, but readily agree that there are real issues with road location, obstacle location and avoidance and even the judgement of when it is just not safe to go out in current generation autopilots. Whether they are better than humans in general is debatable.  Certainly a good human driver is better, but in spite of polls that indicate that three quarters or more of human drivers consider themselves to be better than average, the truth is that a great many of them aren't just below average, but way below average.

[DougSpindler]

What’s the indifference between and above average driver, average driver, below average driver and a way below average driver?

[CatalinaWOW]

What’s the indifference between and above average driver, average driver, below average driver and a way below average driver?

Insurance rates might be the best metric.  Driving tests are another.  You don't have to get a perfect score to get a driver's licence, at least here in the US.  Nor do you have to demonstrate that you can still pass after a few years have gone by.

In any case we allow those below average drivers on the road.  Why shouldn't we allow an autopilot with the same below average skills?

[DougSpindler]

What’s the indifference between and above average driver, average driver, below average driver and a way below average driver?

Insurance rates might be the best metric.  Driving tests are another.  You don't have to get a perfect score to get a driver's licence, at least here in the US.  Nor do you have to demonstrate that you can still pass after a few years have gone by.

In any case we allow those below average drivers on the road.  Why shouldn't we allow an autopilot with the same below average skills?

Makes sense.  In the US drivers test is binary, you either pass or fail.  By law unlicensed drives are not given the privilege to drive. 

But your right the above, below and average is an insurance thing based on number of ticket and accidents.  My insurance company based on my driving record places me in the kamikaze category.
 

[Neilm]

I have never understood why driving in snow is a requirement for a self driving car.  It is clear that a huge percentage of human drivers can't.  And a huge percentage of those don't realize their incompetence, and go ahead and drive anyway.

There was a video posted the other day of a Tesla in autopilot that hit a patch of ice. It controlled and recoved the subsiquent skid apparently all by itself.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLpxYuchB8&feature=youtu.be

[nctnico]

I have never understood why driving in snow is a requirement for a self driving car.  It is clear that a huge percentage of human drivers can't.  And a huge percentage of those don't realize their incompetence, and go ahead and drive anyway.

You clearly have not visited places like Finland in the winter.

I was born in snow country and have driven in snow a lot.  My point wasn't that it is never necessary to drive in snow, only to question why self driving cars have to be better than human drivers.  Here in the US every time it snows the news channels are filled with pictures of people driving into ditches, spinning around corners, driving into the backs of strings of stopped traffic and the like.

That is more likely due to lack of training. Teach people how to drive properly and you'll have less accidents. Driving on a slippery course is mandatory to pass the driver's exam in Finland. I've been in a taxi in Helsinki a couple of times during the winter. 9 out of 10 taxi drivers skid sideways through a turn with 2 or more lanes of traffic on a road covered with a layer of ice. Talking about vehicle control!

[jmelson]

There was a video posted the other day of a Tesla in autopilot that hit a patch of ice. It controlled and recoved the subsiquent skid apparently all by itself.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLpxYuchB8&feature=youtu.be

I DO NOT believe it!  That was somebody swinging the dashcam around.  The car did not swerve.

Jon

[nctnico]

There was a video posted the other day of a Tesla in autopilot that hit a patch of ice. It controlled and recoved the subsiquent skid apparently all by itself.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLpxYuchB8&feature=youtu.be

I DO NOT believe it!  That was somebody swinging the dashcam around.  The car did not swerve.

Agreed. Given the maximum angle the car would have to spun around. Also look at the wipers. These are not in the same position during filming so there is the proof the camera was moved and not the car. FAKE!

[apis]

You guys are in denial

Googles prototype cars had better control than most human drivers already a decade ago. Waymo are polishing the user experience right now before they launch for the public in Phoenix, and after that it's just a matter of time before they launch in other places. They don't have any competition so they are taking their time making sure everything goes smoothly and safely. As for driving in snow, I don't see why they can not make that work eventually, it's just that the cars were developed in California and not in Sweden/Finland, we will have to wait a bit longer over here.

There exist much better videos showing the car doing trick driving, but for some reason this was the best I could find now:
https://youtu.be/bp9KBrH8H04?t=142
And that was eight years ago.

(Tesla isn't autonomous, it's fancy cruise control, much simpler in comparison. Waymo are the only ones with a working system.)

[coppice]

I don't see why they can not make that work eventually, it's just that the cars were developed in California and not in Sweden/Finland, we will have to wait a bit longer over here.

Google cars only drive where their high resolution maps exist, and can be correlated with the world around the car in real time. When it snows, and the world around changes, they can't function. This is a problem they will probably deal with eventually, but right now its something that haven't even tried to address. They are trying to address the low hanging fruit first, which makes an enormous amount of sense.

There exist much better videos showing the car doing trick driving, but for some reason this was the best I could find now:
https://youtu.be/bp9KBrH8H04?t=142
And that was eight years ago.

Are you really going to use stunts performed on a highly controlled circuit as an example of their prowess in automated driving? Its really not that hard to do. 99% of the automated driving problem is achieving safe free range driving.

[apis]

I don't see why they can not make that work eventually, it's just that the cars were developed in California and not in Sweden/Finland, we will have to wait a bit longer over here.

Google cars only drive where their high resolution maps exist, and can be correlated with the world around the car in real time. When it snows, and the world around changes, they can't function. This is a problem they will probably deal with eventually, but right now its something that haven't even tried to address. They are trying to address the low hanging fruit first, which makes an enormous amount of sense.

Yes, I know how they work. They can obviously handle a fairly large amount of change or else they wouldn't be able to drive anywhere. The environment changes constantly. They have driven autonomously on public roads for over 10 million miles now. Since they developed the cars in California they just haven't had to deal with snow during r&d before. Since it never snows in large parts of the world they don't have to wait and fix that before they can launch either. But I don't see why snow should be too hard for them, and certainly not a showstopper. (At least under conditions that human drivers can also handle safely).

I assure you it's something they have tried to adress by now and are working on as we speak. How far they have gotten is anyone's guess, since they have long since clammed up about details.

Actually I see now that they are officially testing in Michigan since over a year back and "Waymo has been doing cold-weather tests since 2012": https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/waymo-starts-testing-in-michigan-to-master-snow-and-ice/ so it's clearly something they are working on.

https://twitter.com/waymo/status/994091703379415042?lang=en

Are you really going to use stunts performed on a highly controlled circuit as an example of their prowess in automated driving? Its really not that hard to do. 99% of the automated driving problem is achieving safe free range driving.

That was the point I was trying to make if it wasn't clear: the software has better control over the car than >99% of human drivers. They have the potential to handle an ice patch (for example) much better than a human driver. Tesla's auto-pilot is nice but they don't have the same capability for free range driving as you put it. But they no doubt have very good control of the cars.

---------
I don't want to talk about self driving cars in this thread though, since it's even more off topic than nuclear power and there are already treads about self driving cars elsewhere.

I do believe they will have an impact on how many EVs there are on the roads though, since it makes a sense for Waymo to choose electric, and I expect they will expand quickly. They will definitely be operating in several cities in ten years from now. That seems relevant to the question of when electric cars will become mainstream.

[CatalinaWOW]

If autonomous, on call cars do take over our two and three car garages will be used as the already often are - to store the stuff that SWMBO doesn't want in the house.

On a more optimistic note they will also be the place to setup and use our more important toys like mills, thermal chambers, water jet tables and the like.

[gildasd]

If autonomous, on call cars do take over our two and three car garages will be used as the already often are - to store the stuff that SWMBO doesn't want in the house.

On a more optimistic note they will also be the place to setup and use our more important toys like mills, thermal chambers, water jet tables and the like.

I welcome our self driving overlords if it means a CNC lathe in the garage newly extended man cave.