Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 190358 times)

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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2925 on: January 18, 2019, 05:09:15 am »
From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.

I think I'm going to buy a  Outlander 2019 PHEV.  It will go places you can't get to because of charging infrastructure.  Plus I don't want to be standing around on a trip waiting for a charge when I can be driving.

I just looked at the IONIQ from Hyundai.  The have a PHEV, BEV,  Hybrid and gas.  I would buy one.  Stupid think is the BEV is only available in Southern California and the BEV, the one I would buy the only get about 8 per year.
 

Online coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2926 on: January 18, 2019, 09:41:28 am »
From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.
The battery in a Prius like hybrid and the one in a PHEV are very different in both size and operating characteristics. If you put a charging socket on a Prius it would only take you a kilometre or so. Its about energy recovery from braking, and operating the gasoline engine in the more effective parts of its envelope. Its not about electric drive. Its really the electrification of the mechanical braking energy recovery systems that Volvo and others put in many commuter buses well before the Prius was launched.

The BMW i3 is a good example of the problem with trying to make a PHEV effective. They tried to make that car light, for efficiency, using carbon fibre and novel construction. A big engine and tank would have wrecked that strategy. So, they used a small lightweight engine and a small tank, and produced a result few people liked. If they had made it more like other PHEVs it would have weighed so much that people would not have liked the poor efficiency. You can't win. The Prius approach focuses on keeping all the additional hardware compact and light weight.

Has any PHEV hit a sweet spot where it has sold a lot of units? I believe the Mitsubishi Outlander bas been the best selling PHEV in Europe, but it's quite a rare car on the roads. Most PHEVs have only sold in very small numbers that can't sustain the business, and not the focus is now shifting to pure electric, as many new models are being prepared for market.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2927 on: January 18, 2019, 10:15:09 am »
From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.
Probably because the tax incentives ended. AFAIK most of the Mitsubishi Outlanders got sold in the Netherlands. When the tax incentives stopped the sales also dropped to zero.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2928 on: January 18, 2019, 11:07:02 am »
From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.
Probably because the tax incentives ended. AFAIK most of the Mitsubishi Outlanders got sold in the Netherlands. When the tax incentives stopped the sales also dropped to zero.
A lot of PHEV Outlanders have been sold in the UK, due to favourable company car tax arrangements. However, fitting tax conditions is usually key to the commercial success of any car. That's why you'll never see a 2 litre car engine that's actually 2 litres. Its always 1995cc or 1998cc, to ensure it will not hit the many global tax penalties that start at 2 litres.
 

Offline Red Squirrel

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2929 on: January 18, 2019, 01:48:44 pm »
Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.

This goes for ANY construction project though and it's a 1 time thing for that particular plant.

Pro oil people use the same argument against electric cars and renewable projects "but they're not green since there's a carbon footprint to manufacture them!".  So do gas cars and oil projects...   

Hopefully eventually we can eliminate even the manufacturing carbon footprint of things, but baby steps. Let's concentrate on making things that don't pollute during their main usable life time first.   
 

Online coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2930 on: January 18, 2019, 02:44:58 pm »
Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.

This goes for ANY construction project though and it's a 1 time thing for that particular plant.

Pro oil people use the same argument against electric cars and renewable projects "but they're not green since there's a carbon footprint to manufacture them!".  So do gas cars and oil projects...   

Hopefully eventually we can eliminate even the manufacturing carbon footprint of things, but baby steps. Let's concentrate on making things that don't pollute during their main usable life time first.   
Its not a one off thing. These plants only last 30 years or so, so the thing gets repeated every 30 years. You need to factor this into any analysis, as some concepts have such massive once every 30 years things that they dominate over day to day things.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2931 on: January 18, 2019, 03:59:37 pm »
From what I understand just about all of the car companies are discontinuing PHEV.  VW discontinued a few years ago, and the Volt is EOL I think next year.  The BMW i3 is a joke as a PHEV.  The gas tank is less than 2 gallons/7.2L.

Not sure why, but GM/Chevy and several of the other car manufactures are all going with no-plugin hybrids.  Why?  If it's got a battery when not allow it to be charged by electricity inseads of just gasoline.
The battery in a Prius like hybrid and the one in a PHEV are very different in both size and operating characteristics. If you put a charging socket on a Prius it would only take you a kilometre or so. Its about energy recovery from braking, and operating the gasoline engine in the more effective parts of its envelope. Its not about electric drive. Its really the electrification of the mechanical braking energy recovery systems that Volvo and others put in many commuter buses well before the Prius was launched.

The BMW i3 is a good example of the problem with trying to make a PHEV effective. They tried to make that car light, for efficiency, using carbon fibre and novel construction. A big engine and tank would have wrecked that strategy. So, they used a small lightweight engine and a small tank, and produced a result few people liked. If they had made it more like other PHEVs it would have weighed so much that people would not have liked the poor efficiency. You can't win. The Prius approach focuses on keeping all the additional hardware compact and light weight.

Has any PHEV hit a sweet spot where it has sold a lot of units? I believe the Mitsubishi Outlander bas been the best selling PHEV in Europe, but it's quite a rare car on the roads. Most PHEVs have only sold in very small numbers that can't sustain the business, and not the focus is now shifting to pure electric, as many new models are being prepared for market.


Thank you.  Very good explanation.  You taught me something.
 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2932 on: January 18, 2019, 05:04:35 pm »
Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.

This goes for ANY construction project though and it's a 1 time thing for that particular plant.

Pro oil people use the same argument against electric cars and renewable projects "but they're not green since there's a carbon footprint to manufacture them!".  So do gas cars and oil projects...   

Hopefully eventually we can eliminate even the manufacturing carbon footprint of things, but baby steps. Let's concentrate on making things that don't pollute during their main usable life time first.   
Its not a one off thing. These plants only last 30 years or so, so the thing gets repeated every 30 years. You need to factor this into any analysis, as some concepts have such massive once every 30 years things that they dominate over day to day things.
It's a one off thing for each plant built and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cement depends on how it's being manufactured (same as with PV panels) so it will likely improve with time. As can be seen here solar produce more GHG emissions than nuclear (page 3, fig 2):
https://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn_383-carbon-footprint-electricity-generation.pdf
But if we compared to coal, gas and oil it's obviously silly to fuss about the tiny GHG emission levels that you get from solar and nuclear.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2933 on: January 18, 2019, 05:25:25 pm »
Question I have is how/why do nuclear power plants release CO2?
So much steel and concrete needed in construction and things like that.

This goes for ANY construction project though and it's a 1 time thing for that particular plant.

Pro oil people use the same argument against electric cars and renewable projects "but they're not green since there's a carbon footprint to manufacture them!".  So do gas cars and oil projects...   

Hopefully eventually we can eliminate even the manufacturing carbon footprint of things, but baby steps. Let's concentrate on making things that don't pollute during their main usable life time first.   
Its not a one off thing. These plants only last 30 years or so, so the thing gets repeated every 30 years. You need to factor this into any analysis, as some concepts have such massive once every 30 years things that they dominate over day to day things.
It's a one off thing for each plant built and the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cement depends on how it's being manufactured (same as with PV panels) so it will likely improve with time. As can be seen here solar produce more GHG emissions than nuclear (page 3, fig 2):
https://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/postpn_383-carbon-footprint-electricity-generation.pdf
But if we compared to coal, gas and oil it's obviously silly to fuss about the tiny GHG emission levels that you get from solar and nuclear.

Something I don’t get is why when folks talk about CO2 emissions from the burning of coal they don’t mention the burning of coal/fossil fuels also releases millions of tons every year of nuclear radioactive isotopes into our atmosphere.  And the waste, the slag heaps from the burning of coal are also radio-active and the radio-active waste is leaches out into the ground water.

 
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Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2934 on: January 18, 2019, 06:58:55 pm »
Quote
Something I don’t get is why when folks talk about CO2 emissions from the burning of coal they don’t mention the burning of coal/fossil fuels also releases millions of tons every year of nuclear radioactive isotopes into our atmosphere.  And the waste, the slag heaps from the burning of coal are also radio-active and the radio-active waste is leaches out into the ground water.
And the coal/gas/oil industry doesn't even have to take care of their own (radioactive) waste (like nuclear does). Often it's just dumped in a landfill somewhere.

People are irrational and afraid of things they don't understand. Burning of wood and coal at home in the cottage is cosy. Big power plants with educated (probably ateist) types in lab coats are scary and evil. (And since coal and gas is such a big industry they have much better lobbyists).
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2935 on: January 18, 2019, 08:36:01 pm »
Quote
Something I don’t get is why when folks talk about CO2 emissions from the burning of coal they don’t mention the burning of coal/fossil fuels also releases millions of tons every year of nuclear radioactive isotopes into our atmosphere.  And the waste, the slag heaps from the burning of coal are also radio-active and the radio-active waste is leaches out into the ground water.
And the coal/gas/oil industry doesn't even have to take care of their own (radioactive) waste (like nuclear does). Often it's just dumped in a landfill somewhere.

People are irrational and afraid of things they don't understand. Burning of wood and coal at home in the cottage is cosy. Big power plants with educated (probably ateist) types in lab coats are scary and evil. (And since coal and gas is such a big industry they have much better lobbyists).


Agreeded - If it weren't for science we would not have food to eat, heated homes, cars/tranportation and be subservient to relgions.  I for one am glad I am not living in an unheated cave and have plenty of food to eat.  And just think how lucky folks are in Alaska....  In the middle of winter they can get fresh tropical fruit.

Wonder what would happen if we had elected officals with a sicence education.  In the US I think we only have one representitive.  Maybe it would not make a difference as Germany's Chancellor is one and yet Germans are shunning nuclear power and burning more coal.



 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2936 on: January 18, 2019, 09:04:58 pm »
Maybe it would not make a difference as Germany's Chancellor is one and yet Germans are shunning nuclear power and burning more coal.
It is strange Merkel did that, and at the same time making Germany more dependent on Russian LNG.  :-//

Germany has a strong political movement (the green party) that were founded on anti-nuclear rhetoric. I suppose Germany also have lots of domestic coal and a powerful coal industry. The European union has its roots in the European Coal and Steel Community which gives a hint of how important the coal industry have been.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2937 on: January 19, 2019, 02:14:55 am »
Maybe it would not make a difference as Germany's Chancellor is one and yet Germans are shunning nuclear power and burning more coal.
It is strange Merkel did that, and at the same time making Germany more dependent on Russian LNG.  :-//

Germany has a strong political movement (the green party) that were founded on anti-nuclear rhetoric. I suppose Germany also have lots of domestic coal and a powerful coal industry. The European union has its roots in the European Coal and Steel Community which gives a hint of how important the coal industry have been.


Interesting the dynamics which are going on in Germany and Europe.  I'm hearing from my European friends Germany has a new or maybe old political party that's gaining in popularity that's telling using the power of God.  As in Fukushima was caused by God as a warning to not use nuclear power.

 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2938 on: January 19, 2019, 02:36:33 am »
I wouldn't know, the media here write more about US politics than EU and hardly anything about what's going on in other European countries. You're lucky if they cover an election in a neighbouring country. So you basically have to try and read their national news if you want to keep up with what's happening there. Getting waaay of topic again..  :-[

Here's what Finland is doing to store nuclear waste.
...
Actually, I think that video is just more scaremongering. All that talk about warning messages and thorny fields and what not. :scared:

If the nuclear accidents themselves doesn't turn out to be so bad, then you can always invent a new bogeyman by saying the waste is a problem.

Nuclear waste is not a big technical problem, it's mainly a political problem. People are more afraid of radiation than other kind of dangerous materials because it's something they have no intuition for. It would be better to deposit the material in an even less accessible area than they do in Finland, preferably a subduction zone, but due to the political opposition to all things nuclear that's not possible. But I'm confident that it's still more than good enough location.

The US have been talking about putting waste in Yucca Mountain. I don't know how geologically stable Yucca Mountain is so I can't say if it's a good location, but I'm sure there are other good spots in the US as well.

The "risk" that some hypothetical future post apocalyptic civilisation will have forgotten all about ionising radiation, while still managing to dig a km down through solid bedrock and get in contact with nuclear waste, seems sort of ridiculously unlikely. But even if they did it's an acceptable risk. In that unlikely scenario maybe a few people would get sick, maybe even die. But even if you factor that into the equation, overall, nuclear is still one of the safest and cleanest methods for generating electricity that exists today and it is madness to not use it to replace fossil fuels (and burning in general).
« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 03:30:04 am by apis »
 

Online coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2939 on: January 19, 2019, 03:06:43 pm »
The "risk" that some hypothetical future post apocalyptic civilisation will have forgotten all about ionising radiation, while still managing to dig a km down through solid bedrock and get in contact with nuclear waste, seems sort of ridiculously unlikely.
After the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe fell hard, and retreated into insular pockets of activity. When things started to improve again, those wealthy enough to travel and see the world were frequently shocked at finding massive structures from Greek and Roman times. They had no clue who had built them, as all connection with history had been lost. There is a reason why the Dark Ages have that tag name.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2940 on: January 19, 2019, 05:23:00 pm »
The "risk" that some hypothetical future post apocalyptic civilisation will have forgotten all about ionising radiation, while still managing to dig a km down through solid bedrock and get in contact with nuclear waste, seems sort of ridiculously unlikely.
After the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe fell hard, and retreated into insular pockets of activity. When things started to improve again, those wealthy enough to travel and see the world were frequently shocked at finding massive structures from Greek and Roman times. They had no clue who had built them, as all connection with history had been lost. There is a reason why the Dark Ages have that tag name.
A lot of stuff has been re-invented during the past 5000 years. But then again non of the old empires got to book printing. IMHO book printing has been the turning point because it allows sharing information on a global scale. And internet is taking sharing knowledge to the next level. All in all information is much more widely spread and less likely to be lost.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Online coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2941 on: January 19, 2019, 05:28:01 pm »
The "risk" that some hypothetical future post apocalyptic civilisation will have forgotten all about ionising radiation, while still managing to dig a km down through solid bedrock and get in contact with nuclear waste, seems sort of ridiculously unlikely.
After the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe fell hard, and retreated into insular pockets of activity. When things started to improve again, those wealthy enough to travel and see the world were frequently shocked at finding massive structures from Greek and Roman times. They had no clue who had built them, as all connection with history had been lost. There is a reason why the Dark Ages have that tag name.
A lot of stuff has been re-invented during the past 5000 years. But then again non of the old empires got to book printing. IMHO book printing has been the turning point because it allows sharing information on a global scale. And internet is taking sharing knowledge to the next level. All in all information is much more widely spread and less likely to be lost.
Books improve the durability of knowledge, assuming they aren't made of the kind of paperback material that crumbles in a few decades. Anything electronic degrades it. So many things have to be just right to be able to extract the contents of any electronics repository that people unlikely to figure out how to do it. Also, we have no really persistent storage mechanisms, so the data is unlikely to even be available for retrieval.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2942 on: January 19, 2019, 05:51:49 pm »
The "risk" that some hypothetical future post apocalyptic civilisation will have forgotten all about ionising radiation, while still managing to dig a km down through solid bedrock and get in contact with nuclear waste, seems sort of ridiculously unlikely.
After the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe fell hard, and retreated into insular pockets of activity. When things started to improve again, those wealthy enough to travel and see the world were frequently shocked at finding massive structures from Greek and Roman times. They had no clue who had built them, as all connection with history had been lost. There is a reason why the Dark Ages have that tag name.
A lot of stuff has been re-invented during the past 5000 years. But then again non of the old empires got to book printing. IMHO book printing has been the turning point because it allows sharing information on a global scale. And internet is taking sharing knowledge to the next level. All in all information is much more widely spread and less likely to be lost.

It was much more than book printing, only the Priests and the few wealthy could read.  It was Martin Luther who exposed the Pope and church for lying about what is written in the Bible to get money from the uneducated and illiterate peasants.  Once Martin Luther translated the Bible into German people cold see for themself the Pope and Priests were making making things up all in the name of money and power.

https://youtu.be/CXK9NNp1yk4
 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2943 on: January 19, 2019, 06:21:34 pm »
I don't exclude the possibility of something apocalyptic happening and people going medieval bible thumping again. There are signs things are moving in that direction (although I find it unlikely it will ever get as bad as witch burning, but who knows). However, during the dark ages, people didn't go around digging many hundreds of meters down into the granite bedrock. If people have that capability they probably haven't forgotten about ionising radiation either and they would detect the danger. But lets say they have forgotten about it and they like to dig deep holes, what are the odds that someone would dig into a waste storage location by chance? But lets say the worst thing happens and some tribe who knows nothing about radiation have the bad luck of digging into a waste storage location, what would the effect be? A few people might get sick, and some might die. Even if you factor all that into the dangers of nuclear power, it still appears to be one of the safest and cleanest ways to generate electricity we know of. So many more will get sick and die because of pollution from coal/gas/oil and climate change, that's not just a hypothetical risk, it's guaranteed.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2944 on: January 19, 2019, 07:28:38 pm »
Let's not forget the first nuclear fission reactor was all natural.  It ran for a few hundred thousand years and we were able to find it and I don't think anyone was killed or became ill due to radiation sickness.

We do know of one media that will survive and that's stone.  We have stone tablets and drawings on cave walls that go back 40,000 years.

My physics taught us just as a volcano is "hot", so is ionizing radiation.  Just as you would keep your distance from a pool of molten hot lava and not go swimming in it just keep your distance from "hot" or ionizing radiation.  We tend to fear what we don't know and understand.  Religion in the Dark Ages was really good at that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_nuclear_fission_reactor


 

Offline fsr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2945 on: January 19, 2019, 08:48:26 pm »
Let's not forget the first nuclear fission reactor was all natural.  It ran for a few hundred thousand years and we were able to find it and I don't think anyone was killed or became ill due to radiation sickness.
Yes, 1.7 billion years ago. At that time, the Earth was a very different place. Even oxygen in the atmosphere was a relatively new thing.
First vertebrate land animals are from 380 million years ago.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2946 on: January 19, 2019, 09:22:39 pm »
Let's not forget the first nuclear fission reactor was all natural.  It ran for a few hundred thousand years and we were able to find it and I don't think anyone was killed or became ill due to radiation sickness.
Yes, 1.7 billion years ago. At that time, the Earth was a very different place. Even oxygen in the atmosphere was a relatively new thing.
First vertebrate land animals are from 380 million years ago.

True and dispite that radioactive decay that's still going on to this very day land animals. vertebrates and man was able to evolve.
 

Offline fsr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2947 on: January 19, 2019, 11:39:20 pm »
Let's not forget the first nuclear fission reactor was all natural.  It ran for a few hundred thousand years and we were able to find it and I don't think anyone was killed or became ill due to radiation sickness.
Yes, 1.7 billion years ago. At that time, the Earth was a very different place. Even oxygen in the atmosphere was a relatively new thing.
First vertebrate land animals are from 380 million years ago.

True and dispite that radioactive decay that's still going on to this very day land animals. vertebrates and man was able to evolve.

That wasn't going to be a problem, considering that:

"Oklo is the only known location for this in the world and consists of 16 sites at which self-sustaining nuclear fission reactions are thought to have taken place approximately 1.7 billion years ago, and ran for a few hundred thousand years, averaging probably less than 100 kW of thermal power during that time"

"The fission reaction cycles continued for hundreds of thousands of years and ended when the ever-decreasing fissile materials no longer could sustain a chain reaction"

Too small to cause that much of an impact, in a limited zone, and the "waste" was depleted.

And at that time, at best, you could expect to find unicellular organisms, which are a lot more resistant to radiaton than us, anyways. Mammals in general are pretty bad at radiation resistance.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2019, 01:21:20 am by fsr »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2948 on: January 20, 2019, 02:34:10 am »
Ummm, the waste is not depleted.  If it was depleted we would know about it.
 

Offline cdev

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #2949 on: January 20, 2019, 05:17:54 am »
Electric trolley cars have been mainstream!

If we had kept the fun, fast, bouncy electric trolley cars we here in the USA wouldn't be in the mess we are in today.


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