Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 183926 times)

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Offline fsr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3025 on: January 25, 2019, 10:46:13 pm »
Those liquid metal batteries do sound crazy, but it seems like they have very interesting characteristics.

The technology isn't new, it seems. They improved them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium%E2%80%93sulfur_battery

I wonder if they can be expected to be used in cars. I suppose that molten metal batteries wouldn't like to be shaken, and just how much heat do the batteries radiate? I suppose that they need to be very well thermally isolated, or you would be losing energy like crazy. Also, i don't want to be anywhere near a molten sodium battery, if the case gets broken.

For stationary storage, they look very good, however.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3026 on: January 25, 2019, 11:11:23 pm »
Those liquid metal batteries do sound crazy, but it seems like they have very interesting characteristics.

The technology isn't new, it seems. They improved them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium%E2%80%93sulfur_battery

I wonder if they can be expected to be used in cars. I suppose that molten metal batteries wouldn't like to be shaken, and just how much heat do the batteries radiate? I suppose that they need to be very well thermally isolated, or you would be losing energy like crazy. Also, i don't want to be anywhere near a molten sodium battery, if the case gets broken.

For stationary storage, they look very good, however.
Ambri is at least a year away from doing field testing: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/ambri-is-still-alive-and-chasing-its-liquid-metal-battery-dreams#gs.9mvoD7XQ The main advantage I see is the life expectancy. If they can get reliable performance for say 20000 cycles or more then the initial costs don't matter that much. It will win from any lithium based battery solution for stationary storage for having a lower TCO in the long term. Still the efficiency is quite low at 70%. Converting electricity to hydrogen may make more sense.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2019, 11:17:19 pm by nctnico »
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3027 on: January 25, 2019, 11:52:18 pm »
Those liquid metal batteries do sound crazy, but it seems like they have very interesting characteristics.

The technology isn't new, it seems. They improved them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium%E2%80%93sulfur_battery

I wonder if they can be expected to be used in cars. I suppose that molten metal batteries wouldn't like to be shaken, and just how much heat do the batteries radiate? I suppose that they need to be very well thermally isolated, or you would be losing energy like crazy. Also, i don't want to be anywhere near a molten sodium battery, if the case gets broken.

For stationary storage, they look very good, however.

At the end someone asked him about the heat, and he said something like the case is warm, but not HOT.  I think he mentioned it the heat generated in charging and discharging could be used to heat a home.


He's not using sodium, that would be explosivly crazy.  He said the TSA will allow his batteries to be taken on a plane.

« Last Edit: January 25, 2019, 11:55:31 pm by DougSpindler »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3028 on: January 26, 2019, 12:22:51 am »
He's not using sodium, that would be explosivly crazy.  He said the TSA will allow his batteries to be taken on a plane.
If you would have listened more carefully: when the battery is fully cooled down and the metals inside solid. I don't know what this would mean for the state of charge.

Come to think of it: the thermal management of these batteries will be a real nightmare. It seems the charge / discharge efficiency is around 70%. Say this is equally divided between charging & discharging. If you are storing 1MW of electricity in the battery you'll end up with 150kW of heat that will need to be taken away from the battery and dumped into the air. However when the battery is stationary this heat production stops and heat needs to be added to keep the battery at the operational temperature. Something tells me that this will require an intricate heating/cooling system. Just using thermal insulation for the cells won't be enough because this will greatly reduce that charge & discharge rates. All in all this technology is years away from being ready for actual deployment.
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3029 on: January 26, 2019, 01:03:00 am »
He's not using sodium, that would be explosivly crazy.  He said the TSA will allow his batteries to be taken on a plane.
If you would have listened more carefully: when the battery is fully cooled down and the metals inside solid. I don't know what this would mean for the state of charge.

Come to think of it: the thermal management of these batteries will be a real nightmare. It seems the charge / discharge efficiency is around 70%. Say this is equally divided between charging & discharging. If you are storing 1MW of electricity in the battery you'll end up with 150kW of heat that will need to be taken away from the battery and dumped into the air. However when the battery is stationary this heat production stops and heat needs to be added to keep the battery at the operational temperature. Something tells me that this will require an intricate heating/cooling system. Just using thermal insulation for the cells won't be enough because this will greatly reduce that charge & discharge rates. All in all this technology is years away from being ready for actual deployment.

He talked about the heat in the video.  As I recall he said it was warm, but not HOT!  Once cool it is a solid and there is no danger.  There was some joke about what if it get's shot and he said it will leak out and become a solid. 


Someone a few posts back said this was bullshit.  And something about all our cars having platinum and our phones having gold.  Guess he missed the part at (5:01) where he show the abundance of atoms on our planet.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth's_crust#/media/File:Elemental_abundances.svg

All the gold tha's ever been mined is a 62 foot or 18 m cube or two olympic size pools.  When it comes to platinum is about 5 times less or about the size of a living room.


 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3030 on: January 26, 2019, 01:21:42 am »
He's not using sodium, that would be explosivly crazy.  He said the TSA will allow his batteries to be taken on a plane.
If you would have listened more carefully: when the battery is fully cooled down and the metals inside solid. I don't know what this would mean for the state of charge.

Come to think of it: the thermal management of these batteries will be a real nightmare. It seems the charge / discharge efficiency is around 70%. Say this is equally divided between charging & discharging. If you are storing 1MW of electricity in the battery you'll end up with 150kW of heat that will need to be taken away from the battery and dumped into the air. However when the battery is stationary this heat production stops and heat needs to be added to keep the battery at the operational temperature. Something tells me that this will require an intricate heating/cooling system. Just using thermal insulation for the cells won't be enough because this will greatly reduce that charge & discharge rates. All in all this technology is years away from being ready for actual deployment.
He talked about the heat in the video.  As I recall he said it was warm, but not HOT!  Once cool it is a solid and there is no danger.  There was some joke about what if it get's shot and he said it will leak out and become a solid. 
Why do I even bother. You are not reading anything I write -again-  :palm:

Quote
Someone a few posts back said this was bullshit.  And something about all our cars having platinum and our phones having gold.  Guess he missed the part at (5:01) where he show the abundance of atoms on our planet.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth's_crust#/media/File:Elemental_abundances.svg

All the gold tha's ever been mined is a 62 foot or 18 m cube or two olympic size pools.  When it comes to platinum is about 5 times less or about the size of a living room.
And still that doesn't prevent platinum to be used for something else then jewelry so the statement of the 'professor' is completely false. I'd call it a lie. And you are not even reading the graph you linked to. It shows platinum and gold are about as equally abundant. If less platinum was mined until now it means there is more left to mine.

Just understand this: the guy in the video is trying to sell his idea and he isn't afraid of telling lies.

Read the article I linked to about how his company is about to go under.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 01:26:06 am by nctnico »
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3031 on: January 26, 2019, 01:42:09 am »
He's not using sodium, that would be explosivly crazy.  He said the TSA will allow his batteries to be taken on a plane.
If you would have listened more carefully: when the battery is fully cooled down and the metals inside solid. I don't know what this would mean for the state of charge.

Come to think of it: the thermal management of these batteries will be a real nightmare. It seems the charge / discharge efficiency is around 70%. Say this is equally divided between charging & discharging. If you are storing 1MW of electricity in the battery you'll end up with 150kW of heat that will need to be taken away from the battery and dumped into the air. However when the battery is stationary this heat production stops and heat needs to be added to keep the battery at the operational temperature. Something tells me that this will require an intricate heating/cooling system. Just using thermal insulation for the cells won't be enough because this will greatly reduce that charge & discharge rates. All in all this technology is years away from being ready for actual deployment.
He talked about the heat in the video.  As I recall he said it was warm, but not HOT!  Once cool it is a solid and there is no danger.  There was some joke about what if it get's shot and he said it will leak out and become a solid. 
Why do I even bother. You are not reading anything I write -again-  :palm:

Quote
Someone a few posts back said this was bullshit.  And something about all our cars having platinum and our phones having gold.  Guess he missed the part at (5:01) where he show the abundance of atoms on our planet.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth's_crust#/media/File:Elemental_abundances.svg

All the gold that's ever been mined is a 62 foot or 18 m cube or two Olympic size pools.  When it comes to platinum is about 5 times less or about the size of a living room.
And still that doesn't prevent platinum to be used for something else then jewelry so the statement of the 'professor' is completely false. I'd call it a lie. And you are not even reading the graph you linked to. It shows platinum and gold are about as equally abundant. If less platinum was mined until now it means there is more left to mine.

Just understand this: the guy in the video is trying to sell his idea and he isn't afraid of telling lies.

Read the article I linked to about how his company is about to go under.



You are right I do not understand you.  Why would converting electricity to hydrogen may make more sense? 
Don't we get too much hydrogen from curde oil?

Yes the guy is trying to sell us on the technology, but isn't MIT the one that's going to profit?  He's tenure faculty.

If you know anything about chemistry and half-cells you have to admit this is a very clever.


 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3032 on: January 26, 2019, 10:31:37 am »
You are right I do not understand you.  Why would converting electricity to hydrogen may make more sense? 
Costs and time needed to implement. A hydrogen tank is something you can order off-the-shelve. The molten salt batteries are years away from being deployable.  I see several potential issues that need to be solved AFTER they have a working cell. Read my text about the thermal management.
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Offline fsr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3033 on: January 26, 2019, 04:43:05 pm »
Sodium-sulfur batteries do exist, and are currently used. Did anyone read the wiki article i linked?
NGK even sells this things: https://www.ngk.co.jp/nas/specs/ Those are probably the ones with the "brittle ceramic separator" mentioned in the video.

As i understand, the battery insides would be solid when discharged and molten when charged. I suppose that they have a hell of a thermal insulation, or the charge wouldn't last.

Ambri seems to have removed the ceramic separator in favor for another layer of molten material which keeps the anode and cathodes apart.

I suppose that if the case breaches, it's fireworks time with the molten sodium. In fact, you can read about a fire incident with NGK batteries here: https://www.ngk-insulators.com/en/news/20120425_9322.html

So, while i'm no expert in this, the claims that nothing will happen if the case is shot at, do sound like bullshit. Take a look at the hazards of sodium-sulfur batteries here, page 3: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/old/4678.pdf

That's unless i got the video wrong, and they're actually using something else. I think he said that they mixed the sodium with another metal, or something like that? Maybe that makes it less explosive, or something.

70% efficiency is quite reasonable (but not the best in battery technologies). Hydrogen cell fuels have typically lower efficiency than that, unless you use the waste heat for something useful, which won't be the case in a car. And the hydrogen needs to be produced by electrolysis, if you want it clean, and right now the efficiency of around 70 to 80%, i think. Then you need to compress the hydrogen, which again requires energy, Here seems to be a good explanation: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/



Hydrogen does have a big advantage, and it's that is fast to charge, and with excellent range.

And this video is great also, down from the same webpage:



Something interesting to note, however, is that it should be quite easy to make a pluggable hydrogen / battery hybrid vehicle. If you have enough battery range for normal everyday use, and you just have to use hydrogen occasionally for long trips, or emergencies, then that looks quite interesting to me. But would that kind of use be enough for the hydrogen stations to make a profit?
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 05:20:31 pm by fsr »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3034 on: January 26, 2019, 08:25:40 pm »
You are right I do not understand you.  Why would converting electricity to hydrogen may make more sense? 
Costs and time needed to implement. A hydrogen tank is something you can order off-the-shelve. The  batteries are years away from being deployable.  I see several potential issues that need to be solved AFTER they have a working cell. Read my text about the thermal management.

I continue not to understand you.  Yes one can buy a hydrogen tank, but what are you going to put in it?

What do you mean molten salt batteries are years away, your information is abut 80 years out of date.  They were originally developed for V-1 and V-2 rockets Germany was sending over to the England and in nuclear weapons.

I read your text about thermal management.  Did you listen and understand what the professor said about the thermal characteristics of his design?

We don't know if what the professor is proposing is going to be a commercial success or not.  But you do have to admit it looks feasible and promising.  This guy is an MIT professor so can we agree he's not stupid?  Bill Gates is no dummy either.  Gates like this guy are trying to solve some of the worlds issues before they are no longer with us.

Instead of bashing the professor saying he's trying to "sell" us on the technology why don't you discuss the issues with the physics and chemistry of what he's proposing.  As Carl Segan said, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."  The professor is making extraordinary claims, and he's sure as shit backing them up with extraordinary evidence.

Why not complement the guy for brilliant way he's looking at the problem and trying to solve it.  You do have to admit it is brilliant. 
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 08:45:56 pm by DougSpindler »
 

Offline GeorgeOfTheJungle

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3035 on: January 26, 2019, 09:17:22 pm »
#include <unistd.h>
int main (void) { while (!NULL) fork(); }
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3036 on: January 26, 2019, 09:21:47 pm »
You are right I do not understand you.  Why would converting electricity to hydrogen may make more sense? 
Costs and time needed to implement. A hydrogen tank is something you can order off-the-shelve. The  batteries are years away from being deployable.  I see several potential issues that need to be solved AFTER they have a working cell. Read my text about the thermal management.

I continue not to understand you.  Yes one can buy a hydrogen tank, but what are you going to put in it?
Hydrogen ofcourse. Made from (excess) electricity.
Quote
What do you mean molten salt batteries are years away, your information is abut 80 years out of date.  They were originally developed for V-1 and V-2 rockets Germany was sending over to the England and in nuclear weapons.

I read your text about thermal management.  Did you listen and understand what the professor said about the thermal characteristics of his design?

We don't know if what the professor is proposing is going to be a commercial success or not.  But you do have to admit it looks feasible and promising.  This guy is an MIT professor so can we agree he's not stupid?  Bill Gates is no dummy either.  Gates like this guy are trying to solve some of the worlds issues before they are no longer with us.
For starters Gates didn't see internet coming until it was too late. Don't confuse people which had one bright idea (in case of Bill Gates: buy software, mash it together and turn it into a profitable product while cornering the market) with people who really changed the world. People like Maxwell, Einstein, etc.

With that cleared out of the way... selling an idea which is good in itself doesn't require bashing other technologies. A good idea sells itself. If bashing of other ideas is required then that is a huge red herring.

What is unclear is what the costs are of the solution. I wrote it before and I'll write it again: efficiency doesn't matter so much. It all comes down to TCO for the end user. Calculating the TCO is not only about the initial costs but also the time between needing a replacement.

According to a quick Google a NAS battery seems to have a cycle life of around 5000 (charged / discharged to 70%). Costs seem to be at $400 per kWh. That means that storing 1kWh costs $400/5000cycles=8 cents per kWh (=TCO). That is a pretty high cost per kWh. Electricity from wind turbines for example costs 2 cents per kWh.

Converting it into hydrogen with a 60% loss through the entire chain is cheaper. A hydrogen tank easely lasts decades and because if the extremely high energy density of hydrogen a small tank can contain a lot of energy. Say you have a 5 litre tank which costs $1000 and it gets filled / emptied every day. In 30 years you'll have 10950 cycles. A 5 liter tank holds the equivalent of 100kWh of electricity (when used in an EV for example). 10950 cycles * 100kWh= 1095000 kWh. The cost per kWh= $1000/1095000 = almost 0. Heck you can make the hydrogen tank many times more expensive and it still amounts to less than a cent per kWh.

In a hydrogen chain you'll need to input 5 cents worth of electricity and spend near to zero on storage in to get 1kWh out. In a NAS battery chain you'll need to put 2.8 cents worth of electricity + 8 cents of costs = 10.8 cents per kWh. I hope this -back of the envelope calculation- demonstrates (again) how uneconomic battery storage is.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 09:33:50 pm by nctnico »
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Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3037 on: January 26, 2019, 09:31:21 pm »
For hydrogen storage you need a lot more than just the tank, you need to generate hydrogen somehow, you need to compress it and cool it (might be possible to use this heat), you then need to convert it back to electricity when you need it. When you calculate TCO you need to take into consideration the cost and lifetime of all those components as well. The tank is going to be the cheapest part.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3038 on: January 26, 2019, 09:34:57 pm »
For hydrogen storage you need a lot more than just the tank, you need to generate hydrogen somehow, you need to compress it and cool it (might be possible to use this heat), you then need to convert it back to electricity when you need it. When you calculate TCO you need to take into consideration the cost and lifetime of all those components as well. The tank is going to be the cheapest part.
A battery will also need auxilary equipment (heating/cooling, conversion, etc).
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3039 on: January 26, 2019, 10:07:53 pm »
Yes, inverters and maybe some heaters/fans*, but that isn't difficult or particularly expensive compared to the complex mechanical systems you'd need for hydrogen. It's really unfair to only make a comparison between batteries and a hydrogen tank. The expensive parts will be converting electricity into hydrogen and vice versa and the compressors, not the tank.

*Looking at a picture of a NGK NAS battery installation from before it looks like thermal regulation is integrated in the battery assemblies.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 10:13:00 pm by apis »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3040 on: January 26, 2019, 10:29:38 pm »
Yes, inverters and maybe some heaters/fans*, but that isn't difficult or particularly expensive compared to the complex mechanical systems you'd need for hydrogen. It's really unfair to only make a comparison between batteries and a hydrogen tank. The expensive parts will be converting electricity into hydrogen and vice versa and the compressors, not the tank.

*Looking at a picture of a NGK NAS battery installation from before it looks like thermal regulation is integrated in the battery assemblies.
Still the costs of the materials for the batteries alone will be huge. Look at the weight of the NAS batteries from the NGK website. I see numbers like 32 tonnes, 82 tonnes.. The materials may be cheap but if you need a lot of it, it still becomes expensive. Not just the materials but also the processing to turn them into batteries. Batteries just don't scale.

But for kicks say we put the price for the entire electric to liquid hydrogen gas system with a 5kg tank at $10000 (mass produced) for a 15 year life span. The storage cost per kWh is 2 cents. Still 4 times cheaper than the battery solution.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 10:31:28 pm by nctnico »
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3041 on: January 26, 2019, 11:49:05 pm »
Yes, inverters and maybe some heaters/fans*, but that isn't difficult or particularly expensive compared to the complex mechanical systems you'd need for hydrogen. It's really unfair to only make a comparison between batteries and a hydrogen tank. The expensive parts will be converting electricity into hydrogen and vice versa and the compressors, not the tank.

*Looking at a picture of a NGK NAS battery installation from before it looks like thermal regulation is integrated in the battery assemblies.
Still the costs of the materials for the batteries alone will be huge. Look at the weight of the NAS batteries from the NGK website. I see numbers like 32 tonnes, 82 tonnes.. The materials may be cheap but if you need a lot of it, it still becomes expensive. Not just the materials but also the processing to turn them into batteries. Batteries just don't scale.

But for kicks say we put the price for the entire electric to liquid hydrogen gas system with a 5kg tank at $10000 (mass produced) for a 15 year life span. The storage cost per kWh is 2 cents. Still 4 times cheaper than the battery solution.

You are correct but when you factor in the inefficiency of hydrogen its far more than the four times you are saving.  No consumer would ever go for it.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3042 on: January 26, 2019, 11:50:21 pm »


Thanks for posting.  Imagine if that were a gas powered car?  Like a Pinto or a Ford Exploder?  The driver and passengers would have been killed and burned alive.

Just goes to show how much safer an EV/Tesla is over gas powered cars.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3043 on: January 26, 2019, 11:55:45 pm »
Yes, inverters and maybe some heaters/fans*, but that isn't difficult or particularly expensive compared to the complex mechanical systems you'd need for hydrogen. It's really unfair to only make a comparison between batteries and a hydrogen tank. The expensive parts will be converting electricity into hydrogen and vice versa and the compressors, not the tank.

*Looking at a picture of a NGK NAS battery installation from before it looks like thermal regulation is integrated in the battery assemblies.
Still the costs of the materials for the batteries alone will be huge. Look at the weight of the NAS batteries from the NGK website. I see numbers like 32 tonnes, 82 tonnes.. The materials may be cheap but if you need a lot of it, it still becomes expensive. Not just the materials but also the processing to turn them into batteries. Batteries just don't scale.

But for kicks say we put the price for the entire electric to liquid hydrogen gas system with a 5kg tank at $10000 (mass produced) for a 15 year life span. The storage cost per kWh is 2 cents. Still 4 times cheaper than the battery solution.

You are correct but when you factor in the inefficiency of hydrogen its far more than the four times you are saving.  No consumer would ever go for it.
I have already factored in the efficiency of hydrogen in my calculations. What kills batteries (in an economic sense) is the massive amount of materials needed and their short lifespan.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3044 on: January 27, 2019, 12:26:33 am »
Care to tell us why your calculations do not agree with the ones in the video?

https://youtu.be/f7MzFfuNOtY

Yes, inverters and maybe some heaters/fans*, but that isn't difficult or particularly expensive compared to the complex mechanical systems you'd need for hydrogen. It's really unfair to only make a comparison between batteries and a hydrogen tank. The expensive parts will be converting electricity into hydrogen and vice versa and the compressors, not the tank.

*Looking at a picture of a NGK NAS battery installation from before it looks like thermal regulation is integrated in the battery assemblies.
Still the costs of the materials for the batteries alone will be huge. Look at the weight of the NAS batteries from the NGK website. I see numbers like 32 tonnes, 82 tonnes.. The materials may be cheap but if you need a lot of it, it still becomes expensive. Not just the materials but also the processing to turn them into batteries. Batteries just don't scale.

But for kicks say we put the price for the entire electric to liquid hydrogen gas system with a 5kg tank at $10000 (mass produced) for a 15 year life span. The storage cost per kWh is 2 cents. Still 4 times cheaper than the battery solution.

You are correct but when you factor in the inefficiency of hydrogen its far more than the four times you are saving.  No consumer would ever go for it.
I have already factored in the efficiency of hydrogen in my calculations. What kills batteries (in an economic sense) is the massive amount of materials needed and their short lifespan.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3045 on: January 27, 2019, 12:35:26 am »
Care to tell us why your calculations do not agree with the ones in the video?
The video is completely wrong because it only looks at efficiency and not at TCO. My calculations determine the total cost of the solution which in the end determines whether a solution is good or not. Efficiency is just a small part of the calculation. Again: what kills battery storage is the cost of making the batteries (even with cheap materials) and their relative short live span.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3046 on: January 27, 2019, 12:58:55 am »
I'm sorry if I missed something, and I'm not saying you are wrong, but your calculations seems to have been numbers pulled out of thin air:
But for kicks say we put the price for the entire electric to liquid hydrogen gas system with a 5kg tank at $10000 (mass produced) for a 15 year life span. The storage cost per kWh is 2 cents. Still 4 times cheaper than the battery solution.
It would be more interesting if we could se something fact based imho.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3047 on: January 27, 2019, 01:19:31 am »
Feel free to find a source with some actual numbers on a hydrogen based system. So far my calculations have shown that a hydrogen storage system has to be extremely expensive per stored kWh (which is not capacity!) to be less economical compared to batteries. All in all it is far more likely hydrogen turns out to be cheaper. How much cheaper is just a matter of finding  out what an installation to convert hydrogen into electricity and storage would cost.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2019, 01:56:51 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline ahbushnell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3048 on: January 27, 2019, 01:31:52 am »
Up until 100 years ago, electric cars were more popular than internal-combustion engine powered cars and were poised to become the standard method of transportation.  Most used NiFe or NiCd batteries.
And how did they control the power output smooth enough without losing too much power in the switch while driving (therefore potentially heating it up and burning, next to the loss of energy)? Not to mention charging those batteries.

The switches needed for that got available with the semiconductors used and available as they are today, the whole system relying on an electrical grid that simply did not exist back then. Those are very technical reasons. The first gas suppliers were indeed pharmacies, as they sold the benzine in bottles and had the necessary logistics infrastructure. That gave the whole idea of a gasoline car the necessary initial push - in Germany back in the days. Where is that chummy-chum?

I mean, there have been quite counter-intuitive decisions, like removing trolley busses from cities and now selling them as solution again or lamenting about the pollution caused by exhaust gasses inside cities. Yet personal transport and public transport is a different thing.
old DC motors had field coils not PM magnets.  They controlled the current in the field coils which was much less then the main armature current. 

http://www.electronics-tutorial.net/electronic-systems/separately-excited-dc-motor/index.html

« Last Edit: January 27, 2019, 01:34:39 am by ahbushnell »
 
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Offline fsr

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3049 on: January 27, 2019, 03:17:27 pm »
According to the video i posted, the electricity cost per km for a tesla model 3 is 2 to 2.4 cents, while they hydrogen cost per km for the toyota mirai is 17.7 cents. The tesla model 3 long-range comes with a battery warranty of 8 years or 120000 miles (193000 km), so, for that many miles, the electricity cost is $4632 (at 2.4 cents/km), while the hydrogen cost would be $34161. A difference of $29529.

And according with the first two results i found, the mirai costs more than the tesla:

https://www.toyotasantamonica.com/toyota-mirai/

https://www.tesla.com/model3

So, about cost, that doesn't looks good for the mirai. But the mirai has the convenience of a fast fillup. If there where enough stations for the trip, of course.

By the way, i didn't noticed before that the model 3 long-range has 500 km range. That's not bad at all.

Still all of them very expensive, however. I hope that the price eventually gets lower as the number of cars sold rises.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2019, 03:20:36 pm by fsr »
 


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