Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 180380 times)

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Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3050 on: January 27, 2019, 03:29:10 pm »
According to the video i posted, the electricity cost per km for a tesla model 3 is 2 to 2.4 cents, while they hydrogen cost per km for the toyota mirai is 17.7 cents. The tesla model 3 long-range comes with a battery warranty of 8 years or 120000 miles (193000 km), so, for that many miles, the electricity cost is $4632 (at 2.4 cents/km), while the hydrogen cost would be $34161. A difference of $29529.

So, about cost, that doesn't looks good for the mirai. But the mirai has the convenience of a fast fillup. If there where enough stations for the trip, of course.
You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure. Sure the Mirai is more expensive right now. It isn't a production car like the Tesla. The same goes for hydrogen. The development of hydrogen is behind compared to pure EVs so right now everything is more expensive. Currently it is very hard to make an accurate estimation on what will be cheaper in a few years taking all costs into account. I've read an old report from 2014 which claims that the infrastructure for hydrogen will be 4 times cheaper than the infrastructure needed to charge EVs. But it is hard to tell how valid that number is in today's situation.

Also the electricity costs for the Tesla depend largely on where you are using it. In Europe the cost per km for the Tesla would be around to 7 dollar cents per km when charging at home. If you use a generic super charger along the road you might pay over 16 dollar cents per km. The recent raise of the price for charging at Tesla's super chargers shows that the EV charging infrastructure isn't going to be free and will need to be paid by the consumers. Prices at public EV charging points will rise further and if you make a long trip or have no charging point at home you can't avoid paying more.

I'm quite sure the cost of the charging infrastructure is what will kill the EV in Europe in a few years. It will be too expensive compared to the alternatives like hydrogen and bio-fuels. In the Netherlands we have the highest fuel costs in the world. Currently the fuel of my car costs me 11 eurocents per km. If I buy a more efficient car I can drop that to 8 eurocents per km.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2019, 03:34:35 pm by nctnico »
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Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3051 on: January 27, 2019, 05:12:59 pm »
You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure.
Are you factoring in the cost of the wear of hydrogen fuel cells and the large scale hydrogen production and charging infrastructure?
It's not like hydrogen is free from problems.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3052 on: January 27, 2019, 05:23:48 pm »
You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure.
Are you factoring in the cost of the wear of hydrogen fuel cells and the large scale hydrogen production and charging infrastructure?
It's not like hydrogen is free from problems.
That is a rather old article from 2015. Things are changing fast and many of the issues listed in the article are no longer true. Given the current rapid expansion of hydrogen infrastructure it seems many of the obstacles have been overcome. Sure the fuel cells don't have an infinite life span and the hydrogen tanks will need inspections at certain intervals (for the Mirai once every 15 years).

I have been trying to find numbers on the cost for a hydrogen installation but I'm afraid it is to soon to say. Whatever is out there now isn't really mass produced so prices are very high.
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Online coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3053 on: January 27, 2019, 05:27:17 pm »
You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure.
Are you factoring in the cost of the wear of hydrogen fuel cells and the large scale hydrogen production and charging infrastructure?
It's not like hydrogen is free from problems.
How much maintenance does a fuel cell vehicle require? I see various things vaguely claiming its now, but I remember fuel cells from the past having serious wear and tear issues.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3054 on: January 27, 2019, 05:40:51 pm »
You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure.
Are you factoring in the cost of the wear of hydrogen fuel cells and the large scale hydrogen production and charging infrastructure?
It's not like hydrogen is free from problems.
How much maintenance does a fuel cell vehicle require? I see various things vaguely claiming its now, but I remember fuel cells from the past having serious wear and tear issues.
The Toyota Mirai has an 8 year or 160k km warranty on the fuel cell.
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Online coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3055 on: January 27, 2019, 06:12:04 pm »
You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure.
Are you factoring in the cost of the wear of hydrogen fuel cells and the large scale hydrogen production and charging infrastructure?
It's not like hydrogen is free from problems.
How much maintenance does a fuel cell vehicle require? I see various things vaguely claiming its now, but I remember fuel cells from the past having serious wear and tear issues.
The Toyota Mirai has an 8 year or 160k km warranty on the fuel cell.
That tells me nothing about the maintenance requirements.
 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3056 on: January 27, 2019, 06:34:48 pm »
I don't have any experience with fuel cell vehicles so don't know much.
This report suggest that the latest generation fuel cell cars have an average lifetime of 2442 operating hours (about 118000 km or 73000 mi), so about half of the life expectancy of a gasoline car.
https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review17/tv001_kurtz_2017_o.pdf
« Last Edit: January 27, 2019, 06:46:34 pm by apis »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3057 on: January 27, 2019, 06:40:32 pm »
The Toyota Mirai has an 8 year or 160k km warranty on the fuel cell.
That tells me nothing about the maintenance requirements.
The 8 year warranty implies it should be maintenance free. And if it is not during that period then Toyota pays the bill. But knowing Toyota's quality level the fuel cell will last for much longer. When they introduced the Prius everyone said the batteries would fail within 3 years. Nothing could be further from the truth. It doesn't make sense to release a crappy car for a brand like Toyota. Besides that the Mirai isn't a new car. It was introduced in December 2014 in Japan.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2019, 06:49:28 pm by nctnico »
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Online coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3058 on: January 27, 2019, 06:50:11 pm »
The Toyota Mirai has an 8 year or 160k km warranty on the fuel cell.
That tells me nothing about the maintenance requirements.
The 8 year warranty implies it should be maintenance free. And if it is not during that period then Toyota pays the bill. But knowing Toyota's quality level the fuel cell will last for much longer. When they introduced the Prius everyone said the batteries would fail within 3 years. Nothing could be further from the truth. It doesn't make sense to release a crappy car for a brand like Toyota.
Since when has any warranty on a car implied no maintenance? Most warranty claims are only accepted if the car can be shown to have been maintained according to the maker's schedule.
 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3059 on: January 27, 2019, 06:55:19 pm »


Nice to know that the Toyota Mirai doesn't have the high pressure hydrogen tank (orange) directly under the driver seats.

Apparently the 2016 Mirai cars comes with a warning not to refuel after 2029:
https://insideevs.com/2016-toyota-mirai-refuel-2029/
« Last Edit: January 27, 2019, 07:04:14 pm by apis »
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3060 on: January 27, 2019, 07:43:42 pm »
Since when has any warranty on a car implied no maintenance? Most warranty claims are only accepted if the car can be shown to have been maintained according to the maker's schedule.
You could have found the maintenance manual yourself:
https://www.toyota.com/t3Portal/document/omms-s/T-MMS-17Mirai/pdf/T-MMS-17Mirai.pdf
Nothing out of the ordinary except that the fuel tank needs to be swapped every 15 years or 180 months (whichever comes first). It is common that gas tanks need periodic re-testing so I'd assume the tank will be swapped with a refurbished one if yours still passes testing.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3061 on: January 27, 2019, 08:12:18 pm »
If the fuel cell system is expected to last for a little more than 8 years/160 km then the 15 year life of the gas tank shouldn't matter.
 

Online coppice

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3062 on: January 27, 2019, 08:46:07 pm »
If the fuel cell system is expected to last for a little more than 8 years/160 km then the 15 year life of the gas tank shouldn't matter.
Having a warranty of 8 years is not the same as having a predicted life of 8 years. Warranties are normally much shorter than the expected lifetime.
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3063 on: January 27, 2019, 08:48:41 pm »
If the fuel cell system is expected to last for a little more than 8 years/160 km then the 15 year life of the gas tank shouldn't matter.
The warranty is 8 years / 160k km. So it is guaranteed to last at least that long. Given Toyota's proven track record when it comes to reliability (and dealing with manufacturing defects after the warranty period) I'd be way more worried about swapping the tank.
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Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3064 on: January 27, 2019, 09:01:33 pm »
Sure, but given this:
Quote
This report suggest that the latest generation fuel cell cars have an average lifetime of 2442 operating hours (about 118000 km or 73000 mi), so about half of the life expectancy of a gasoline car.
https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review17/tv001_kurtz_2017_o.pdf
How much better will their system be? If you drive about 15000 km per year you will have driven 120000 km after 8 years, so apparently they seem confident they can do better, or they have factored in the cost of replacing the fuel cells into the price of the car.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3065 on: January 28, 2019, 12:53:16 am »
Something else which was not mentioned about hydrogen powered cars is the time to fill them.  If you read in the comments an owner of a Mirai says it takes him 20 minutes to fuel his car.  Isn't that about the same amount of time for a Super Charger to get a Tesla to 80% charge?

And no mention that hydrogen fuel is NOT coming from electrolysis, (too expensive).  No it comes from fossil fuel.

So in the end, hydrogen cars are really fossil fuel powered.  What's the advantage?

 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3066 on: January 28, 2019, 01:08:55 am »
Currently most EVs are powered from fossil fuel as well so that doesn't make any difference. It should be possible to fuel the Mirai in a couple of minutes though but this seems to depend on the kind of hydrogen fueling station. Definitely something to take into account when considering a hydrogen car. Toyota says that refueling the Mirai takes 5 minutes but this depends on the kind of fueling station and ambient temperature if you read the fine print: https://www.longotoyota.com/mirai.htm .
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3067 on: January 28, 2019, 01:21:52 am »
Currently most EVs are powered from fossil fuel as well so that doesn't make any difference. It should be possible to fuel the Mirai in a couple of minutes though but this seems to depend on the kind of hydrogen fueling station. Definitely something to take into account when considering a hydrogen car. Toyota says that refueling the Mirai takes 5 minutes but this depends on the kind of fueling station and ambient temperature if you read the fine print: https://www.longotoyota.com/mirai.htm .

Now, we all know that's NOT exactly true.  You have even posted graphs showing what you are saying is NOT true.  EV cars can get their power from fossil fuel, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, wave and biomass.  Hydrogen cars today only get their fuel for fossil fuel.  Yes they could get it from electrolysis, but as has been discussed it is much more expensive.  So I think it's accurate to say hydrogen powered cars are reality fossil fuel powered cars.

Is there a reason you can't be a bit more honest?
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3068 on: January 28, 2019, 01:29:55 am »
Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2019, 01:32:41 am by nctnico »
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3069 on: January 28, 2019, 01:39:04 am »
Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.   
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3070 on: January 28, 2019, 09:50:04 am »
Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3071 on: January 28, 2019, 10:14:33 am »
Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.
If you use electricity to generate hydrogen it's always going to be much less efficient than a BEV by orders of magnitude. So if you use the same electricity to charge batteries and generate hydrogen BEVs are going to be a much cleaner option.

If you use fossil fuels (like LNG) to produce the hydrogen you might as well use gasoline directly. It's always going to be more efficient to burn the fuel directly in an ice than first converting fossil fuels to hydrogen and then use the hydrogen as fuel in a car.

For hydrogen to be clean it has to be produced by only using something non-polluting, like wind, solar or nuclear energy. There are some work in China on pebble bed reactors for hydrogen production but I don't know how far they have come. You could also potentially use solar and wind when there is excess production capacity. So it has potential to be cleaner than fossil fuels but currently isn't.

To tell if a battery EV or hydrogen hybrid EV are better we would need a proper well to wheels life time analysis. I suspect the added complexity and extra conversion steps to produce hydrogen is always going mean it will be less efficient than simply charging batteries directly though.

(That picture doesn't tell us anything about how the hydrogen is produced, only that someone have put some solar panels on a roof that couldn't produce anywhere near enough energy to fule those busses.)
 

Online nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3072 on: January 28, 2019, 10:43:16 am »
Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.
If you use electricity to generate hydrogen it's always going to be much less efficient than a BEV by orders of magnitude. So if you use the same electricity to charge batteries and generate hydrogen BEVs are going to be a much cleaner option.
Efficiency is just a small part of the equation so don't get too focussed on that alone because you'll lose sight on the big picture. In the end it is all about cost and convenience.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3073 on: January 28, 2019, 10:45:57 am »
Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.
If you use electricity to generate hydrogen it's always going to be much less efficient than a BEV by orders of magnitude. So if you use the same electricity to charge batteries and generate hydrogen BEVs are going to be a much cleaner option.
Efficiency is just a small part of the equation so don't get too focussed on that alone because you'll lose sight on the big picture. In the end it is all about cost and convenience.
If the goal is to reduce GHG emissions and other pollution then the car that uses less electricity (assuming it is generated in the same way) is going to the best option.
 

Offline gildasd

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3074 on: January 28, 2019, 11:04:40 am »
It seems that large amounts exist as biproduct or waste of other processes,
I am no expert in this field, but it seems it value is too low for capture.
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f12/waste_cox.pdf
At work I have also overheard at work that hydrogen mixed with volatile organic generated
during crude oil extraction is simply burnt off.

Seems a bit like when gasoline was dumped as worthless.
I'm electronically illiterate
 


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