Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 159217 times)

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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3350 on: February 19, 2019, 02:32:52 am »
Interestingly you never provide any scientifically sound sources (IOW reports with factual numbers) which support your opinion. Some guy ranting on Youtube doesn't count.
Dude the videos are just not “some guys”.  These are well educated experts with scientifc backgrounds who are well respected.  They use critical thinking skills and science to support their positions.  There’s not marketing hype or belelifs, just the language we all understand science. 
You mean the Australian car sales guy? Like he has the qualifications to proof several independant projects, in which at least a billion dollars of private money has been invested, wrong... You have to come up with a much better argument than that. And please quit about critical thinking. That is just blowing dust in the wind to create a smoke screen.

There you go again making shit up.  John Cadogan is just one of the many people I have referenced.  They are sure as shit better than that one marketing web page from several years ago about biofuels.  Well several years have past and biofuels have failed miserably to meet the numbers in the documents you keep referring to.

Are you saying you are not a critical thinker?  If so explains why many of your posts are so silly.  Stop inhaling the biofuel fumes and get a whiff of science.  If it were not for critical thinking skills and science were would we be? 
 

Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3351 on: February 19, 2019, 02:50:17 am »

You have to come up with a much better argument than that. And please quit about critical thinking. That is just blowing dust in the wind to create a smoke screen.

No. Critical thinking is what exposes scams and bullshit from the very star and avoids a lot of people getting suckered into things that are garbage.
They are anything BUT a smoke screen, they are a smoke screen destroyer.  Asking questions to see if hype lives up to fact is something people with something to hide hate and something that people whom have come up with something good love because it proves their legitimacy.

There are a lot of sheeple that just go with whatever they are told and never question or examine it. These are the people scammers and Polititians as well as big business love because they can sell them shit sandwiches without the bread and they just buy them and never complain because they are too damn stupid to think for themselves.

You are very pro Bio fuels but I'd like to know exactly to what extent you use them yourself.  Do you run your Vehicle on E-85 or pure ethanol? How long have you been doing it? Does your Mrs also run her car on Bio Fuels ( if you have one)  and what sort of cars do you have?

I have been running my vehicles and others in the family on and off on veg oil for 16 years.  I run generators and burners on it for heating water, metal casting and other things. I have helped people around the world build veg burners for Drying grain, heating greenhouses to replace LPG and run farming and industrial equipment on it.

If anyone knows about Biofuels including alchol in a practical sense, blowing my own trumpt or not, You are going to have to go a ways to find someone that has had more free time on their hads to look into it and more importantly, get their hands dirty doing all kinds of testing and practical use than me.

All that said, and with all the benefits Bio fuel has given me over the years, my belief it will contribute anything remotely significant to the worlds energy consumption is zero. has been for the last 16 years and in all that time, when they have been talking about breakthrough just around the corner the whole time, My opinion has only changed from highly unlikely to no way in hell.

Maybe in time some token percentage of fuel we use might be from bio sources, 3-5% but I think that's overly optimistic anyway. In real terms though it will be nothing because Bio fuels CANNOT exist without oil energy input AND, the yield from bio fuels has never been greater than a breakeven for the liquid and electrical energy input.

Again I ask you to put your money where your beliefs are.  Give us some numbers that we can use to see if Biofuels will be a hit or a miss in a certain number of years. How long will it be do you think with all these marvelous technology's will it take before Bio fuels are 1% of the worlds total liquid fuel supply?  give us some other numbers to go by as to what the contribution of bio fuels is going to be over a certain time line.
Not looking for or remotely interested in any scientific fact, Just what YOU believe the Bio fuels contribution will be within a certain time frame based on your reading and opinion.

Interested to hear how you use biofuels and for how long you have done so. Do you have any investments in bio fuel interests?





 
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Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3352 on: February 19, 2019, 03:11:45 am »

You might want to try some dope or LSD it might mellow you out and clear your mind of all of the hostility you have.

No thanks.
I don't need anymore problems in my life and I prefer to keep what wits I have intact at all times.
[/quote]

There are a lot of less than Ideal things said here and on every other fourm but I think encouraging people to become drug addicts crosses a line on EVERY public forum and website.

My daughters last relationship came to a very abrupt end when I found the deadshit she had been going with offered and encouraged her to take Drugs. This guy thought he was hard and tough till i got hold of him. I'm a fat old overweight unfit diabetic but there is nothing like a the rage of a father with someone that tried to put his little girl in danger. 

I even rang my solicitor mate after I sorted him and said what do I do when they come to arrest me? Frankly, I didn't give a rats arse about the consequences, I have the money to buy my way out of anything like that and there is no price too high for me to protect my little girl from pieces of garbage like him.  NOTHING.
As my solicitor mate suggested, I wouldn't hear from anyone and if I did, he'd have no problem getting me off anyway given I had proof of what he had done.

Least we did something right in the way we raised our girl and she was not persuaded and pretty much decided he wasn't worth carrying on with on her own. 

Do you have kids? Do you encourage them to become drug addicts? If not, why do it with others?

I have had a life beyond what most people can Imagine but the day I have to go down the road of becoming a drug addict is the day I'll fire up my 600V generator, wire myself to it and flick the switch.


Quote
This stuff helps a lot of people think more clearly.  Looking at your posts, just thought it might help.

No, it fks people up and ruins lives. It helps nothing at all.
Sad and predictable you as a drug user think otherwise.  Save your breath with any further encouragement, it's never going to work and is highly inappropriate.

If you don't like what I post, please feel free to use the ignore function built into the forums features if it bothers you so much.
 
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 04:53:47 am by george80 »
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3353 on: February 19, 2019, 03:45:13 am »

You have to come up with a much better argument than that. And please quit about critical thinking. That is just blowing dust in the wind to create a smoke screen.

No. Critical thinking is what exposes scams and bullshit from the very star and avoids a lot of people getting suckered into things that are garbage.
They are anything BUT a smoke screen, they are a smoke screen destroyer.  Asking questions to see if hype lives up to fact is something people with something to hide hate and something that people whom have come up with something good love because it proves their legitimacy.

There are a lot of sheeple that just go with whatever they are told and never question or examine it. These are the people scammers and Polititians as well as big business love because they can sell them shit sandwiches without the bread and they just buy them and never complain because they are too damn stupid to think for themselves.

You are very pro Bio fuels but I'd like to know exactly to what extent you use them yourself.  Do you run your Vehicle on E-85 or pure ethanol? How long have you been doing it? Does your Mrs also run her car on Bio Fuels ( if you have one)  and what sort of cars do you have?

I have been running my vehicles and others in the family on and off on veg oil for 16 years.  I run generators and burners on it for heating water, metal casting and other things. I have helped people around the world build veg burners for Drying grain, heating greenhouses to replace LPG and run farming and industrial equipment on it.

If anyone knows about Biofuels including alchol in a practical sense, blowing my own trumpt or not, You are going to have to go a ways to find someone that has had more free time on their hads to look into it and more importantly, get their hands dirty doing all kinds of testing and practical use than me.

All that said, and with all the benefits Bio fuel has given me over the years, my belief it will contribute anything remotely significant to the worlds energy consumption is zero. has been for the last 16 years and in all that time, when they have been talking about breakthrough just around the corner the whole time, My opinion has only changed from highly unlikely to no way in hell.

Maybe in time some token percentage of fuel we use might be from bio sources, 3-5% but I think that's overly optimistic anyway. In real terms though it will be nothing because Bio fuels CANNOT exist without oil energy input AND, the yield from bio fuels has never been greater than a breakeven for the liquid and electrical energy input.

Again I ask you to put your money where your beliefs are.  Give us some numbers that we can use to see if Biofuels will be a hit or a miss in a certain number of years. How long will it be do you think with all these marvelous technology's will it take before Bio fuels are 1% of the worlds total liquid fuel supply?  give us some other numbers to go by as to what the contribution of bio fuels is going to be over a certain time line.
Not looking for or remotely interested in any scientific fact, Just what YOU believe the Bio fuels contribution will be within a certain time frame based on your reading and opinion.

Interested to hear how you use biofuels and for how long you have done so. Do you have any investments in bio fuel interests?

Excellent reply.  I suspect you will not receive a reply or a bunch of nonsense from him.  I would be surprised if he answers your questions.

The car guy John Cadogan, do you know much about him?  I've watched many of his YouTube videos and have found his scientific explanations about cars and fuels to be spot on.  I'm wondering how he's received where you are.  His video on biofuels was very good.
 

Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3354 on: February 19, 2019, 09:14:56 pm »

The car guy John Cadogan, do you know much about him?  I've watched many of his YouTube videos and have found his scientific explanations about cars and fuels to be spot on.  I'm wondering how he's received where you are.  His video on biofuels was very good.

I'm surprised you like Cadogan. I would have thought he was too direct and "Uptight" for you.

Cadogan is not well liked in the industry here.  He makes predictions that seem far fetched and ridiculous at the time but have a nasty and unfortunate habit of proving to be spot on. HE also calls things as he seems them and does not pander to the industry interests.

He has made several predictions about our car industry that the media went to pains to ridicule and quoted him with the hosts of several programs openly laughing at him and basicly calling him stupid and a nutter.
They weren't laughing when he said something would happen within 10 years and it happened exactly as he said within 8.  He gets to put them ridiculing him  on his channel now and laugh at them for being such indignant and wrong buttwipes. 

He's not too PC but he has a habit of being very spot on with what he says no matter how many vested interests don't like it.  There is another major prediction he made about 9-10 years ago about a local manufacturer about to come true any time now. He was laughed at when he said that too.
Looks very much like he will have the last laugh yet again.

My favorite vid of his is the Tesla Cult Vid.  If anything proved how right that was it's the load of comments on the vid proving EXACTLY what he said. Man must be laughing at the number of hits and comments that one has got from the sooking fanbois.
Not that the point of that vid wasn't painfully obvious to all that have a brain to think for themselves and don't need some TV type preacher to think for them.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3355 on: February 19, 2019, 09:39:53 pm »
Interestingly you never provide any scientifically sound sources (IOW reports with factual numbers) which support your opinion. Some guy ranting on Youtube doesn't count.
Dude the videos are just not “some guys”.  These are well educated experts with scientifc backgrounds who are well respected.  They use critical thinking skills and science to support their positions.  There’s not marketing hype or belelifs, just the language we all understand science. 
You mean the Australian car sales guy? Like he has the qualifications to proof several independant projects, in which at least a billion dollars of private money has been invested, wrong... You have to come up with a much better argument than that. And please quit about critical thinking. That is just blowing dust in the wind to create a smoke screen.

There you go again making shit up.  John Cadogan is just one of the many people I have referenced.  They are sure as shit better than that one marketing web page from several years ago about biofuels.  Well several years have past and biofuels have failed miserably to meet the numbers in the documents you keep referring to.

Are you saying you are not a critical thinker?  If so explains why many of your posts are so silly.  Stop inhaling the biofuel fumes and get a whiff of science.  If it were not for critical thinking skills and science were would we be?
I just follow where the money goes. If it where just one company pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into an idea I'd might give your objections a thought but when multiple independant companies are investing at least one billion dollars (combined) into an idea and built industrial scale factories they must be on to something big. It also means that multiple independent companies have come to the conclusion that the idea of cellulosic bio-fuels is feasible. What are you bringing to the table to prove a whole bunch of companies which probably employ THE top notch scientists in the world when it comes to cellulosic bio-fuels are wrong? Please stop puffing smoke and come up with a recent report (from 2017 or later) that says cellulosic bio-fuels are a fallacy.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3356 on: February 19, 2019, 10:58:14 pm »

Excellent reply.  I suspect you will not receive a reply or a bunch of nonsense from him.  I would be surprised if he answers your questions.


You were spot on and 100% Correct.

Replied to you and has posted 3 other reply's at this time but skipped the questions I asked.
Proof beyond all doubt as if we didn't already know it is full of hot air and complete and utter bullshit.  How many of these Green goobers have I came across before that make all the noise and never stop preaching and handing out the Koolaide but of course will never take a sip themselves.
You can set your watch by it. The more they sook and cry about green motivations and the more they brow beat others for not blindly following their religion, the bigger the hypocrites they are.

As usual, there is so much laughable stupidity in the latest post, it or anything else is not worth responding to.  I think ignoring  it and more predictable rubbish is the sensible option as clearly he is only trolling and talking the constant garbage to get some reaction and acknowledgement that is lacking in his everyday life.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3357 on: February 19, 2019, 11:12:56 pm »

Excellent reply.  I suspect you will not receive a reply or a bunch of nonsense from him.  I would be surprised if he answers your questions.

You were spot on and 100% Correct.

Replied to you and has posted 3 other reply's at this time but skipped the questions I asked.
Because there is no use answering your questions. What the hell does my use of bio-fuels have to do with what is being developed in that area? But to answer your questions anyway: if E10 is available I fuel my car with that. I have looked at using E85 but that is unavailable where I live. Otherwise I probably would have fitted an E85 conversion kit on my car. The conversion kits are pretty cheap and easy enough to install.

Now please add something to the discussion which has some scientific grounds. Perhaps you care to provide some numbers and results from your experiments with bio-fuels.

BTW if you think bio-fuels don't count then check this Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_energy_supply. In 2012 bio-fuel and waste already provided 10% of the world's energy.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 11:34:57 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3358 on: February 20, 2019, 01:30:55 am »

 What the hell does my use of bio-fuels have to do with what is being developed in that area?

It goes to credibility of which with me at least, you have none.  I might have some respect if you were actually dedicated to the cause you preach so much about and have some real world experience with it but using E-10 occasionally is a complete cop out.

Quote
I have looked at using E85 but that is unavailable where I live. Otherwise I probably would have fitted an E85 conversion kit on my car. The conversion kits are pretty cheap and easy enough to install.

Another cop out. I personally know guys that drive over 80KM each way to get E-85 in bulk to do them a couple of weeks because they have converted their vehicles and believe in it and just don't mouth off like some. .  I give them wiring harnesses out of wrecked Cars to make the setup easier for them.

Quote
Now please add something to the discussion which has some scientific grounds.
You first! We have been asking you to do that for weeks but the best you can do is propaganda websites from vested interests and Wiki. Meanwhile you bleat and sook about everyone else having to provide scientific proof of anything you dispute.

Quote
Perhaps you care to provide some numbers and results from your experiments with bio-fuels.

I have run used veh oil in vehicles, mainly 95-100% for 16 years. I have made tens of thousands of litres of Biodiesel.  I have run generators and all manner of diesel engines on it for longer than vehicles.  I have made over a dozen burners for metal casting, heating domestic hot water and heating swimming pools as well as a bunch of other uses.

I have only made a couple of batches of Alcohol fuel because it is too much effort and energy investment for too little return.  Wether on an individual or industrial scale, you can't get past the fact that the microbes you need in the mash are only ever going to reach 20% before they basically wipe themselves out.  You have to heat 100% of the volume of the mash to get 20% ( at extreme best) worth of final product.
then there is the energy i pulverising the waste product if that is what you are going to be using and all the other parts of the process.
Had you EVER got your hands dirty YOU would know all this and see why all the hoopla you go on with is flawed from the start.
What numbers do you want me to provide? There is nothing I can say that will back up your claims, Quite the opposite.

With all that hands on experience I still say Biofuels are not going to provide any amount of LIQUID fuels worth a damn (firewood doesn't count!)  now or into the foreseeable future.

I asked what your predictions were for Biofuel production based on all the sits you read but as usual and as predicted, you don't answer but give a lot of waffle to avoid backing up anything you say or being shown up for the baseless rants you go on with.

Quote

BTW if you think bio-fuels don't count then check this Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_energy_supply. In 2012 bio-fuel and waste already provided 10% of the world's energy.

Bet you felt really smart when you dug that up didn't you?  :bullshit:

Sorry, Firewood  does not count and that is EXACTLY what is counted in that figure.  You really want us to believe that liquid bio fuels as we are specifically talking about  provide more energy than Nuke, Hydro, solar and wind... Put together?  :-DD :-DD   |O
You are that desperate to convince us of your religion you would try something as laughable as that on? 
And what about your own stipulations of something scientific from 2017 or later?

Sorry, You are a joke mate and no other way to put it because that is the plain truth.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3359 on: February 20, 2019, 03:09:03 am »

Excellent reply.  I suspect you will not receive a reply or a bunch of nonsense from him.  I would be surprised if he answers your questions.

You were spot on and 100% Correct.

Replied to you and has posted 3 other reply's at this time but skipped the questions I asked.
Because there is no use answering your questions. What the hell does my use of bio-fuels have to do with what is being developed in that area? But to answer your questions anyway: if E10 is available I fuel my car with that. I have looked at using E85 but that is unavailable where I live. Otherwise I probably would have fitted an E85 conversion kit on my car. The conversion kits are pretty cheap and easy enough to install.

Now please add something to the discussion which has some scientific grounds. Perhaps you care to provide some numbers and results from your experiments with bio-fuels.

BTW if you think bio-fuels don't count then check this Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_energy_supply. In 2012 bio-fuel and waste already provided 10% of the world's energy.

Dude once again you have failed and I mean FAILED to offer any evidence to support your claims.  Now you are a complete joke as you don't even use the biofuels you think can power the world.

All of your posts are jokes.  You try and use fake news and bullshit marketing material to support you claims.  Any high school kid high on dope can see the bullshit you are spewing.  Heck you don't even read what's in the links you are sharing to see they completely discredit the point you are trying to make.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3360 on: February 20, 2019, 03:29:11 am »

The car guy John Cadogan, do you know much about him?  I've watched many of his YouTube videos and have found his scientific explanations about cars and fuels to be spot on.  I'm wondering how he's received where you are.  His video on biofuels was very good.

I'm surprised you like Cadogan. I would have thought he was too direct and "Uptight" for you.

Cadogan is not well liked in the industry here.  He makes predictions that seem far fetched and ridiculous at the time but have a nasty and unfortunate habit of proving to be spot on. HE also calls things as he seems them and does not pander to the industry interests.

He has made several predictions about our car industry that the media went to pains to ridicule and quoted him with the hosts of several programs openly laughing at him and basicly calling him stupid and a nutter.
They weren't laughing when he said something would happen within 10 years and it happened exactly as he said within 8.  He gets to put them ridiculing him  on his channel now and laugh at them for being such indignant and wrong buttwipes. 

He's not too PC but he has a habit of being very spot on with what he says no matter how many vested interests don't like it.  There is another major prediction he made about 9-10 years ago about a local manufacturer about to come true any time now. He was laughed at when he said that too.
Looks very much like he will have the last laugh yet again.

My favorite vid of his is the Tesla Cult Vid.  If anything proved how right that was it's the load of comments on the vid proving EXACTLY what he said. Man must be laughing at the number of hits and comments that one has got from the sooking fanbois.
Not that the point of that vid wasn't painfully obvious to all that have a brain to think for themselves and don't need some TV type preacher to think for them.

America needs a Cadogan.  I think I found him after my friend spent something like $90 to have his tires filled with Nitrogen gas to get better fuel economy.  Or at least that's what they told him.  What a crock.  Cadogan's video was spot on when it came to the science and the critical thinking skills.  His Tesla Cult and Tesla Truck video are also spot on when it comes to the science/physics and the use of critical thinking.  He's also correct about what fossil fuels have done for mankind.

While I don't live in Ausie land I find it interesting to see how American and European car companies screw you guys over too.  I see Carogan being to the car companies what Richard Dawkins is the religion.  We need more people like them to separate facts for beliefs.

If you are into podcasts there's a NPR show in the US called This American Life.  They have done two shows about cars.  The first one is about NUMMI (GM and Toyota) in Fremont, CA.  After GM/Toyota venture fell apart it is where Tesla's are being assembled.
https://www.thisamericanlife.org/561/nummi-2015

Other one is about how cars are sold in the US.  After listen to Cadogan and the stories he's told about the way cars are sold where you are, sounds like it's the same here.
https://www.thisamericanlife.org/513/129-cars

Hope you find the podcasts interesting.

Keep up the posts, maybe one day nctnico will realize will learn the value of critical thinking skills.  (But I doubt it.) 





 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3361 on: February 20, 2019, 10:40:56 pm »
Meanwhile, the beat goes on...

EV sales continue to grow.  Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.

 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3362 on: February 20, 2019, 10:54:26 pm »
Meanwhile, the beat goes on...

EV sales continue to grow.  Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.


50k versus 1.6 million cars sold in total. That is a drop in the ocean. Talking about creating misleading graphs  :palm:
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3363 on: February 20, 2019, 11:29:32 pm »

Oh goody!
Another promo piece for EV's from a vested interest group trying to push their cause and do anything they can to get media attention.

EV sales continue to grow.

And why wouldn't they given the hype and attention they are getting in every form of media every day?
They are held out to be the cure all of the worlds problems and the trendy new form of a penile or breast enhancement for the wanna be green cocktail party crowd.


  Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.

Why is it impressive?
The whole thing behind EV's is it is the shiny new toy that promises to be the biggest cash cow the Auto industry has had since it was created.
That said, I doubt the manufacturers are cheering just yet given how far they will have to go to recoup R&D costs on these things.

Wonder how the sales of hybrids compared?

The next year or 2 should be interesting though with every manufacturer known and quite a few startups that aren't, all busting a gut to get in on the EV fad.  Some of them might be quite good, the Rivian for one seems to hold promise and with the huge backing it just got from Amazon, promises to kick Teslas arse  to timbucktoo and back.
 I'd put money on Tesla not being around in 5 years but I can't because none of the screaming fan bois that have a conniption on any forum I say that will take me up on setting up a proper bet with the money put in escrow.

Both China and India want to set themselves up as the EV Production Leaders which will make for an interesting contest  with both the westerners and the Koreans whom are also serious about getting a slice of the pie and seem to have some worthy offerings in the pipeline ready to ship.

I think buying an EV now would be a very unwise decision for this reason.
Given the amount  of EV's about to rain down into the market in the next 2 years alone, The 4-5 yr resale value of anything bought now i going to be horrendous.  I doubt the tech will ever move faster than what it is going to in the next 5 years nor the prices drop further and faster.

You'd really have to be mad or have more dollars than sense to buy an EV now.
Won't stop a lot of the sheeple  rushing into them and then regretting it later on.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3364 on: February 20, 2019, 11:43:26 pm »
EV sales have continued their rapid growth rate despite overall auto sales growth being flat.

1.6 million auto sales in the US for December 2018 is accurate but includes light trucks (trucks, SUVs, vans).  Considering that at this time there are essentially no EV models available in those categories that is a poor comparison. (Though a large number of EV s in the light truck category are being released in the next 2 years).

Light truck sales have recently made up about 2/3 of total US auto sales.  (Yes Americans like their big SUVs and trucks).

So comparing apples to apples, 50K of EV sales in December is approximately 10% of the  US car (not light truck) market.

Regardless - what's important is the growth rate. Considering that 10 years ago there were essentially no EVs - the continued its exponential growth rate in the setting of a flat US auto market is a sign that EVs continue their march to eventually becoming the majority of new car sales.  Yes, that is still several years away but it is coming.  The data makes that clear.

This link shows December 2018 US car sales and changes in sales.
 

Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3365 on: February 21, 2019, 03:23:06 am »

Light truck sales have recently made up about 2/3 of total US auto sales.  (Yes Americans like their big SUVs and trucks).

So comparing apples to apples, 50K of EV sales in December is approximately 10% of the  US car (not light truck) market.

So Ev's were about 10% of 33%?  Sounds close.


US EV Sales Surpass 2% In 2018
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/12/us-ev-sales-surpass-2-for-2018-8-more-sales-charts/

Yep, 2% of sales is about right.


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Regardless - what's important is the growth rate.


Why? Important to whom? The car companies?  Not important to me or anyone else I know.
Couldn't give a damn if they were 90% or .1%.

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Considering that 10 years ago there were essentially no EVs - the continued its exponential growth rate in the setting of a flat US auto market is a sign that EVs continue their march to eventually becoming the majority of new car sales.

That's a stretch. Hardly exponential growth. Sounds like hyping them up to me.  Why do you want to do that? Do you have some vested interest in promoting them?  are you on the industry payroll in some way or just a fan Boi that think they have to recruit everyone else into the EV religion and worship the things?

I think the idea that there were none 10 years ago and now there are and the sales are growing is a very banal point.  I'm sure I could have said the same about a lot of things that weren't available 10 years previous and sales had grown but what would you expect of an over hyped Pet product of the PC and greenwashed?


 
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Yes, that is still several years away but it is coming.  The data makes that clear.

SEVERAL years away?  :-DD Try 20 because  THAT is what the data says it will take for EVS to reach 51% of new car sales.

According to BloombergNEF in May, by 2030 EVs will make up 44% of all new vehicle sales in Europe, 41% in China, 34% in the United States and 17% in Japan. By 2040, it said, they will comprise a market share of over 55%.

Why the need to hype Ev's all the time?  Why the Muskesq exaggeration and blowing things out of proportion?
The more I have something rammed down my throat and see constant hype and BS that I can see is not true, the more turned off and critical I am of it.

I guess if you have some vested interest in the auto industry you may have an understandable interest in hyping EV's but otherwise, WTF is the point of talking ship about their sales and constantly spin doctoring the things?
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3366 on: February 21, 2019, 05:10:53 am »
Funny how some get all worked up by facts that disagree with their narrative.
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3367 on: February 21, 2019, 06:41:14 am »
EV sales have continued their rapid growth rate despite overall auto sales growth being flat.

1.6 million auto sales in the US for December 2018 is accurate but includes light trucks (trucks, SUVs, vans).  Considering that at this time there are essentially no EV models available in those categories that is a poor comparison. (Though a large number of EV s in the light truck category are being released in the next 2 years).
You still need to include light trucks in your comparison because people are buying them instead of EVs. BTW SUVs aren't light trucks and there are EV SUVs on the market.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline mtdoc

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3368 on: February 21, 2019, 08:13:26 am »
SUVs aren't light trucks

Incorrect. In the US, SUVs, Vans and pickups are classified as “light trucks” and broken out separately from “cars” in automobile sales figures.

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there are EV SUVs on the market.
No, not really - or just barely. The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV just recently was released to the US market in very limited numbers. The Tesla model X is kind of marketed as an SUV but that’s kind of a joke to anyone but the upper class “soccer mom” SUV crowd. Audi is just now releasing one.

There are at least 3 companies releasing EV pick up trucks in the next year or two that I am aware of. It will be interesting to see how that market shakes out in the next few years. The top 3 selling autos in the US are pickup trucks. Once EVs have made the same inroads into that market that they’re making into the passenger car market, then the writing will be on the wall for the end of the US auto ICE age. Yes, that is still several years away, but it’s coming.

When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
 

Offline george80

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3369 on: February 21, 2019, 09:56:13 am »
Funny how some get all worked up by facts that disagree with their narrative.

Especially when their bullshit hyperbole they are pushing on people is Proven wrong.    :-//
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3370 on: February 21, 2019, 02:18:28 pm »
When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline ahbushnell

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3371 on: February 21, 2019, 03:05:57 pm »
Meanwhile, the beat goes on...

EV sales continue to grow.  Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.


50k versus 1.6 million cars sold in total. That is a drop in the ocean. Talking about creating misleading graphs  :palm:
Impressive growth. 
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3372 on: February 21, 2019, 03:10:03 pm »
It is not. After a decade the market penetration is only a few percent. Compare that with smartphones:
« Last Edit: February 21, 2019, 03:12:01 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3373 on: February 21, 2019, 04:12:57 pm »
When my oldest turns 16 in a little over 3 years, I plan to give him my Volt and get an EV pick up. Then I can sell my Toyota Tundra, the last pure ICE vehicle I’ll likely ever own.
Just be prepared that your kid's usage scenarios and willingness to put up the limitations of an EV may not match yours... You might end up selling the  Volt and keeping the Tundra.

Volt is a discontinued car. 
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3374 on: February 21, 2019, 04:18:58 pm »
Meanwhile, the beat goes on...

EV sales continue to grow.  Especially impressive in light of the fact that total auto sales have been flat or down for several months now.


50k versus 1.6 million cars sold in total. That is a drop in the ocean. Talking about creating misleading graphs  :palm:
Impressive growth.

How does this compare to the adoption of BEVs in the 1970s and over 100 years ago when BEV cars were first introduced?
 


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