### Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 248930 times)

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#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3725 on: March 09, 2019, 05:01:38 pm »
my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
It is just a crude estimation to see if the numbers aren't way off (like 5 times or more). Doing these estimations is good to do a sanity check on calculations. BTW you might just as well reason the 200Wh/km is too low but any discussion on that is moot; it is not the goal of a sanity check.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2019, 05:03:12 pm by nctnico »
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#### Simon

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3726 on: March 09, 2019, 05:02:02 pm »
And i already said that I could afford a cheap second hand EV, but not the latest and greatest no more than i can afford an ICE car, they are the same price you know. While our electricity may be cheap in the UK so are wages, but thank you for putting me in my place. Of course i don't have the £100K to hand to buy a house like mine but with a drive!

#### Simon

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3727 on: March 09, 2019, 05:03:39 pm »
my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
It is just a crude estimation to see if the numbers aren't way off (like 5 times or more). You might just as well reason the 200Wh/km is too low.

So now you say your figure is wrong, make up your mind! we use your figures and when they don't work out you act as though we all made a mistake, we sure did using your numbers. We can't win, when your are proven wrong you decide it's because YOU are using dodgy numbers.

#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3728 on: March 09, 2019, 05:15:05 pm »
my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
It is just a crude estimation to see if the numbers aren't way off (like 5 times or more). You might just as well reason the 200Wh/km is too low.
So now you say your figure is wrong, make up your mind! we use your figures and when they don't work out you act as though we all made a mistake, we sure did using your numbers. We can't win, when your are proven wrong you decide it's because YOU are using dodgy numbers.
Sorry, but you are really missing the point here. I just wanted to show George80 that 200Wh/km is a sensible number to propel an EV. Now you want to drill down and get a result with 3 significant digits behind the dot. That serves no purpose in this case. The result of my calculation has an error margin of like +/-50% and that doesn't matter. What part of 'crude estimation' is unclear?
« Last Edit: March 09, 2019, 05:16:52 pm by nctnico »
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#### boffin

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3729 on: March 09, 2019, 05:32:44 pm »

A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

No wonder you guys don't get it.  You don't understand basic math.  Perhaps you can find a 4th grader and have them help you with your multiplication.
Sorry you are right. Well spotted. In my defense: It was late. With the right numbers it looks at lot more doable:

A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=2kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*2kWh=460kWh just for one person to go to work. It still is a big chunk of the electricity usage of one person and as Goerge80 mentioned this number is on the low side.

40km * 200Wh/km = 8kWh  (not 20, not 2)
Around here that's $0.80 worth of electricity. same car in ICE is 7l/100km car is 2.8 l @ 1.429/l =$4.00, five times the cost to make the same commute on gasoline.

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#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3730 on: March 09, 2019, 05:35:53 pm »
Aaarggghhh I'm going to ask my money back from school  Where is my friggin' calculator....
« Last Edit: March 09, 2019, 05:38:35 pm by nctnico »
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#### boffin

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3731 on: March 09, 2019, 05:43:11 pm »
Another thing I didn't consider  with these figures is the use of a heater, AC, stereo, wipers and lights at night.  They would have to add significantly in real world conditions as the reports I mentioned outlined.  AC seems to give a big hit as do heaters which would be expected.

How is running the AC, wipers, lights, heated seats etc any different on an ICE?

For all of the accessory items above, you require an ICE engine to burn additional fuel to generate electricity (or mechanical) to power these devices.  In fact the AC, wipers, lights, heated seats are all MORE efficient on an EV as you're not tossing away heat as you try and convert fuel to electricity or mechanical motion.

Cabin heat is the only outlier here, where it's a waste byproduct on an ICE car that can be harvested; but my cabin heater draws around 2kW absolute maximum, and after a couple of minutes and the cabin is warmed up, drops down to perhaps 600W.

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#### Simon

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3732 on: March 09, 2019, 05:46:33 pm »
Any new EV can be preheated when on charge but yes it is the only downside although some seat heating has been done with engine coolant.

#### mtdoc

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3733 on: March 09, 2019, 06:02:23 pm »
40km * 200Wh/km = 8kWh  (not 20, not 2)
Around here that's $0.80 worth of electricity. same car in ICE is 7l/100km car is 2.8 l @ 1.429/l =$4.00, five times the cost to make the same commute on gasoline.

There you go posting actual facts again.

EVs are a technology advancement which are simply the rational, necessary  and inevitable next step in the evolution of personal mechanized transportation. They have their shortcomings and societies transition to them will not be pain free, nor will it be able to completely fill the void left by the ending of the oil age. But it’s happening. They have become mainstream and in perhaps 20 years will be the dominant form of personal transportation.  The few here who seem so emotionally attached to the ICE age that they repeatedly resort to ignoring or distorting the facts in repetative, rambling posts are a testament to how ingrained the “happy motoring” ICE age has become in society.

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#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3734 on: March 09, 2019, 07:02:50 pm »
I agree that the days of driving around in gas guzzling ICE cars are numbered but for reasons I outlined earlier I'm sure EVs are not the solution. EVs add up to too much costs.

See how the French almost went for another revolution due to rising fuel prices because the government wanted to tax ICE cars away. The main problem is that people who don't have a lot of money, spend a large portion of their income on getting to and from their work. Usually they can't afford to move closer to work either. Increasing their transportation costs by a few euro per week takes their holiday away. It is simple as that. So any transition towards reducing CO2 output for transportion has to be cost neutral for the working people.
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#### Simon

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3735 on: March 09, 2019, 07:29:46 pm »
I agree that the days of driving around in gas guzzling ICE cars are numbered but for reasons I outlined earlier I'm sure EVs are not the solution. EVs add up to too much costs.

See how the French almost went for another revolution due to rising fuel prices because the government wanted to tax ICE cars away. The main problem is that people who don't have a lot of money, spend a large portion of their income on getting to and from their work. Usually they can't afford to move closer to work either. Increasing their transportation costs by a few euro per week takes their holiday away. It is simple as that. So any transition towards reducing CO2 output for transportion has to be cost neutral for the working people.

Unfortunately someone has to pay, the rich are better at avoiding paying for stuff and governments just want to get elected next time around so they try to avoid taxing both but the poor are generally targetted first and yea when they have nothing left to loose shit happens.

In the early days to own a car you had to be well off. Then the rich did pave the way for the development and as the costs came down well off people could afford a car. My grandparents were one family in two in a street a mile long that had a car in the 1950's. Wages rose a tiny bit and cars got a lot cheaper due to the economy of scale that slowly crept in.

So now 70 years after mass production started we have people travelling many miles to work, sometimes over 50 miles. And now we realise that we need a totally new technology. So we have a problem, because no one wants to pay and it's a bit difficult trying to explain to the average Joe that stuff just costs money, more than he was led to believe if he wants to not wreck his environment. But the average Joe only sees as far into the future as tomorrow and when his house does not burn down the day after he is told he thinks he was lied to.

Once people trusted governments and once governments could be trusted. But in this day and age no one can trust no one and governments are run by people that don't give a shit about anyone.

#### NiHaoMike

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3736 on: March 09, 2019, 08:04:12 pm »
See how the French almost went for another revolution due to rising fuel prices because the government wanted to tax ICE cars away. The main problem is that people who don't have a lot of money, spend a large portion of their income on getting to and from their work. Usually they can't afford to move closer to work either. Increasing their transportation costs by a few euro per week takes their holiday away. It is simple as that. So any transition towards reducing CO2 output for transportion has to be cost neutral for the working people.
Hence why I like the idea of requiring all new cars to get a higher minimum MPG. It would get the automakers to actually be serious about optimizing for efficiency.

At the same time, perhaps a way to increase fuel taxes that would have minimal effect on the poor would be to only increase it on the higher grades of fuel?
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#### Simon

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3737 on: March 09, 2019, 08:26:53 pm »
I don't think they can get much more efficient. The clue is in the name "combustion" If you use an ICE to generate electricity you would be recovering the heat for heating and they do do that on gen sets but in cars you are up shits creak.

Adding things like catalytic converters to try and deal with the emissions just made them less efficient. my 1.25L fiesta gets the same mileage as my old 1.8L mondeo.

#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3738 on: March 09, 2019, 08:54:54 pm »
If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
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#### NiHaoMike

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3739 on: March 09, 2019, 08:59:53 pm »
I would expect more in the way of hybrids and engine optimizations like Atkinson cycle, as well as aerodynamics tweaks. 30 MPG highway is by no means a hard target and many existing cars already do that or better. What gets trickier is raising the requirement over time to prevent stagnation, since there will be some point where it would no longer be economical to continue.
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#### Simon

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3740 on: March 09, 2019, 09:02:32 pm »
My little 1.25L ICE car has about as small an engine as it can have..... and it is still no better than an old 1.8L engine.

Where are these biofuels?

Hybrids? they are a bit of a joke unless done really well. You would have to do regenerative breaking to charge a battery to use the power again later but you end up carrying around more weight and you still won't get away from the fact that 60+% of the energy entering the ICE comes out as heat. About the only thing you can do to make and ICE more efficient is to recover the heat to drive a compressor to help pump the gasses through the cataliytic converter and make the vehicle even heavier!

Fact is that the only power type we can efficiently handle and convert is electricity.

#### Simon

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3741 on: March 09, 2019, 09:04:19 pm »
I would expect more in the way of hybrids and engine optimizations like Atkinson cycle, as well as aerodynamics tweaks. 30 MPG highway is by no means a hard target and many existing cars already do that or better. What gets trickier is raising the requirement over time to prevent stagnation, since there will be some point where it would no longer be economical to continue.

You cannet break .physics, my car currently is doing 43MPG (UK gallon 4.54L), it can do 50 on a long trip. Most of the inefficiency of ICE is getting them up to being efficient as fast as possible.

#### ahbushnell

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3742 on: March 09, 2019, 10:18:33 pm »
when an EV goes down hill it does not use 200Wh/m, more like -200Wh/m that is what you fail to grasp. the power used is that used to get the vehicle to speed and to overcome frictions, breaking/slowing down is done by recovering the kinetic energy back into the battery. This is the bit i missed when I originally opposed EV's

I assume that's per mile?

If with a 5% grade the potential energy is 219 W-hr/mile  with a car that is 1000 kg.

To accelerate the car to 60 mi/hr (96 km/hr) the kinetic energy is 99.9 W-hr.

Of course this is ignoring conversion efficiency.

#### ahbushnell

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3743 on: March 09, 2019, 10:21:01 pm »
my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
I think he used the 40% to try to find out how much shaft power was required by the car.

#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3744 on: March 09, 2019, 10:26:29 pm »
my car does 9.5m/L that is 15Km/L, that is a little fiesta. why do you throw the 40% efficiency in, don't you want to count the fuel you throw away as part of the input, with 36MJ/L that is 10KWh/L that is 666Wh/Km, you were the one that says that electric does 200Wh/Km, your mate was doubting the 200Wh/Km and 666*0.4 = 266Wh/m but that 40% is err, very optimistic..... my car does not do that because every day I drive 6.5 (10.5) miles (Km) and in winter just as i approach the end of the journey my engine has warmed up and might be becoming efficient. i have been down at 6.6m/L in winter. I forget to mention that I leave home 1 hour before i start work to miss the traffic so don't side around with an idling engine.
I think he used the 40% to try to find out how much shaft power was required by the car.
Exactly!
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.

#### DougSpindler

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3745 on: March 09, 2019, 11:26:47 pm »
I would expect more in the way of hybrids and engine optimizations like Atkinson cycle, as well as aerodynamics tweaks. 30 MPG highway is by no means a hard target and many existing cars already do that or better. What gets trickier is raising the requirement over time to prevent stagnation, since there will be some point where it would no longer be economical to continue.

Hybrids are what are being discontinued.  VW stopped making there's a couple of years ago.  And Chevy announced end of production for their car.  It appears the car manufactures are giving up on hybrids.  Didn't Volvo say they are only going to make BEV and NOT hybrids?

#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3746 on: March 09, 2019, 11:30:47 pm »
To me it seems every car manufacturer has a different idea on what the future of cars is. Therefore it is no surprise they go in different directions, usually based on their strong and weak points.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.

#### coppice

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3747 on: March 09, 2019, 11:34:50 pm »
I would expect more in the way of hybrids and engine optimizations like Atkinson cycle, as well as aerodynamics tweaks. 30 MPG highway is by no means a hard target and many existing cars already do that or better. What gets trickier is raising the requirement over time to prevent stagnation, since there will be some point where it would no longer be economical to continue.

Hybrids are what are being discontinued.  VW stopped making there's a couple of years ago.  And Chevy announced end of production for their car.  It appears the car manufactures are giving up on hybrids.  Didn't Volvo say they are only going to make BEV and NOT hybrids?
Mild hybrids, which focus on brake energy recovery, and need only a small battery, seem to be a hot topic right now.

#### apis

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3748 on: March 09, 2019, 11:44:35 pm »
There is a ton of scientific studies out there. The world health organisation has a page about air-pollution you can take a look at to begin with: https://www.who.int/news-room/air-pollution
They prove exactly what I said perfectly.
The first link shows that the world health organisation thinks air pollution is one of the biggest health problems today. It's not a controversial fact so they probably don't feel they need to link everything. But it was not a particularly good website now that I look at it more carefully. It's not so hard to google and find better sources though, if you are really interested. Some quick googling right now led me to these:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-other-reason-to-shift-away-from-coal-air-pollution-that-kills-thousands-every-year/
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-and-other-fossil-fuels/coal-air-pollution
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/coal-impacts

I can only assume if coal were such a terrible killer it would be a headline with the numbers for the 3rd world cooking.
If you cook with coal briquettes indoors at home it's obviously going to be worse than burning coal in a large coal power plant which can be more efficient and have proper chimneys and hopefully some filtering.

The second link again proves my point.
All ESTIMATES from various ( green biased) organisations that state something as irrefutable gospel but no explanation of how these ESTIMATES were calculated nor the source .
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/
He even provides a list of references for you. (for example: European Union Report EUR 21951; Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health; Nat. Res. Council, Wash., D.C.; Journal of the AMA; Environmental Defense Fund; WHO; Chittaranjan National Cancer Institute) Except for one none of those are from anything that can reasonably called "green biased". Do you think Forbes is "green biased" as well?

 Energy Source Mortality Rate (deaths/trillionkWhr) Coal – global average 100,000 (41% global electricity) Coal – China 170,000 (75% China’s electricity) Coal – U.S. 10,000 (32% U.S. electricity) Oil 36,000 (33% of energy, 8% of electricity) Natural Gas 4,000 (22% global electricity) Biofuel/Biomass 24,000 (21% global energy) Solar (rooftop) 440 (< 1% global electricity) Wind 150 (2% global electricity) Hydro – global average 1,400    (16% global electricity) Hydro – U.S. 5 (6% U.S. electricity) Nuclear – global average 90 (11%  global electricity w/Chern&Fukush) Nuclear – U.S. 0.1 (19% U.S. electricity)

Why are nuke deaths peanuts compared to coal power when we haven't even established a credible figure, just "estimates".
Chernobyl is the worst civilian nuclear accident. Now, after 30 years of scientific studies we have decent worst case estimates of the health impact. Lets take the higher figure of 30000 premature deaths. Lets say Fukushima is just as bad (by all accounts I've read so far Fukushima is much less severe though). That means a total of 60000. That is the total worst case number of deaths from civilian nuclear power since nuclear power was invented. Global electricity production from coal was about 10000 TWh in 2016 according to Iea, so coal power kills roughly 1000000 people every year!

Because the level of radioactivity from, for example, Chernobyl is so low that it is basically impossible to measure any negative health effect at all on an individual level, except for a few people who lived closest to the power plant and the first responders. At Chernobyl, which is by far the worst civilian nuclear accident, only about 50 deaths can be linked directly to the accident. The rest is worst case estimated effects from the very low level radioactive pollution that was spread over a large area (and thus affect a lot of people).

It's similar with coal power plants, you can't tell if an individual died from air pollution from a certain coal power plant, but you can do epidemiological studies that show how air pollution affects human health and then look at the amount and type of air pollution from coal power plants and make estimates based on what we know.

Quote
If you look at the civilian nuclear energy industry as a whole, and calculate the average deaths per kWh produced, nuclear is even safer than solar power according to some:

Yep, there is always a way to spin numbers and statistics to say what you want.
How about we crunch the numbers for the cost of cleanup and the lives lost in doing so for coal plant accidents and Nuke accidents.
Lets give the Nuke side a head start and we'll just include Chernobyl, Fukishima and 3 Mile island.  You can heap together all the accidents on record for coal.
This is a very interesting article comparing impacts and damage costs for coal and nuclear:
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/magazines/bulletin/bull41-1/41104991518.pdf

When nuclear operates normally it does not generate any pollution at all, so zero deaths. Meanwhile, every year, coal power stations kill a million people at a steady pace.

If you want to include work related deaths from coal mining it will only look worse for coal.

Tobacco industry once said smoking was not harmful as well so forgive me if I just take things which logic and experience tell me is questionable with blind and unquestionable faith.
Indeed they did. Same way the fossil fuel industry now says global warming isn't real and that air pollution from coal power stations is not harmfull.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2019, 12:01:21 am by apis »

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#### DougSpindler

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3749 on: March 09, 2019, 11:45:08 pm »
To me it seems every car manufacturer has a different idea on what the future of cars is. Therefore it is no surprise they go in different directions, usually based on their strong and weak points.

No - There you are wrong again.  As California has shown we can control and influence the cars the car companies produce.  It was.  You have California to thank for forcing car manufactures to produce cars produce less pollution.

California is at once again with the hundreds of millions being spent to encourage the development of hydrogen powered cars.  As we have learned this appears to be a stupid idea, but that's government for you.

When it comes to cars California has always been a leader.

Smf