Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 460171 times)

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Offline apis

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3750 on: March 09, 2019, 11:57:08 pm »
Nuclear is not a good idea, our current new station is being built by a conglomerate of private companies including the chinese and why the British need a french company to build them a nuclear power station using a Chinese contractor baffles and scars me. These companies are in it for one reason only - money. And once built, if they do not build more of something this too will over run on it's intended life and become a danger.
Both the French and Chinese have a lot of experience with nuclear power. I can't argue against your prophecy but at least the historic track record shows that nuclear is the safest and arguably the most environmentally friendly type of power there is. Maybe that will change in the future, but to me it would seem more logical that the risk of accidents decrease as we learn from previous mistakes and improve the designs and technology.
 
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Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3751 on: March 10, 2019, 12:04:17 am »
No - There you are wrong again.  As California has shown we can control and influence the cars the car companies produce.  It was.  You have California to thank for forcing car manufactures to produce cars produce less pollution.
You mean like the billions the germans put in their turbo diesel engine development since 2000 which all was just a big lie?

One state can't change global car development, if Ford still produces and sells F150 which is one if  the most selling cars in the US, proves they can't even influence their country.
 
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3752 on: March 10, 2019, 12:10:51 am »
The tobacco industry created a new "denial" industry when they hired an advertising firm to cause doubt and confusion about cigarettes causing lung cancer.  They were highly successful. 

The same scientists who were hired to say cigarette smoking doesn't cause cancer were hired to say there is no such thing as acid rain, that STAR WARS defense system would work, DDT, asbestos, and most recently there is no such thing as man caused climate change or global warming.

This is all very well documented by Naomi Oreskes in "Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming".

There's a book and a video.  Oreskes does an excellent job exposing the doubt and confusion industry where well known scientists from Universities such as Harvard and MIT are paid to promote doubt and confusion in the eyes of the public and law makers.   

https://www.amazon.com/Merchants-Doubt-Handful-Scientists-Obscured/dp/1608193942

Video was on YouTube.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3753 on: March 10, 2019, 12:18:35 am »
No - There you are wrong again.  As California has shown we can control and influence the cars the car companies produce.  It was.  You have California to thank for forcing car manufactures to produce cars produce less pollution.
You mean like the billions the germans put in their turbo diesel engine development since 2000 which all was just a big lie?

One state can't change global car development, if Ford still produces and sells F150 which is one if  the most selling cars in the US, proves they can't even influence their country.

You had better believe one state can and has.  California had some of the worst air pollution in the world and UC Berkeley scientists demonstrated it was caused by car exhaust.  If your car has anti-pollution controls on it you have the politicians from the State of California to thank.     

https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/about/history
https://earth.stanford.edu/news/californias-vehicle-emissions-fight-continues-50-year-struggle#gs.081sd7
 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3754 on: March 10, 2019, 12:31:27 am »
Yes they did great things in the past, but what are they doing now that has a global effect as you suggest?
 

Offline Someone

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3755 on: March 10, 2019, 12:44:30 am »
No, the power grid doesn't exist. That is the problem. When switching over to 100% EVs you'll need roughly 25% extra generating capacity. According to statistics of the Netherlands, currently 16% of the electricity is used for domestic use. If you want to charge EVs at home (or in the street) you'll likely need to double the capacity going towards the homes. Do not underestimate the amount of power an EV needs.

A quick sum: if you drive 20km to work every day in a small EV which needs 200Wh/km. That means 40*0.2=20kWh per day. With 46 work weeks in a year that adds up to 46*5*20kWh=4600kWh just for one person to go to work.

I also disagree about low maintenance costs. A lot of the charging points will be public and subject to weather and abuse.
You can find other references about energy consumption:
https://www.iea.org/Sankey/#?c=Netherlands&s=Balance
That would put transport in NL moving to electricity doubling the electricity production, perhaps some of that can be smoothed by storage but its a huge step change in energy production for the sector. You could try and separate out private transport trips from industry and aviation, but thats already been looked at. The book Sustainable Energy - without the hot air, tallied up an average personal energy consumption picture for the UK:
http://www.withouthotair.com/c18/page_103.shtml
Transport is around 1/3 of a persons energy use, give or take. You can look through the IEA stats linked above which break this out country by country. Its not impossible to transition the majority of transportation to electricity, but it will be a slow process and requires significant increases in grid capacity and energy generation.
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3756 on: March 10, 2019, 12:44:59 am »
Yes they did great things in the past, but what are they doing now that has a global effect as you suggest?

Errrr what do you mean in the past?  The legacy of what was done 50 years ago still lives on.  We now have a president which is trying to undo or loosen some of these anti-pollution requirements.  And yes we are "fighting" him on it.

We are spending $200 M on hydrogen fueling stations. - Okay, as we know that's really stupid.  But hey let's waste some tax payer money.

China and California are the two most important geographic markets in the world when it comes to the adoption of electric vehicles.
https://evadoption.com/california-evs-by-the-numbers-20-statistics-that-might-surprise-you/

 
California is investing with both public and private funds in an effort to meet the state’s goal to reach 5 million zero emission vehicles on the road by 2030, and is on pace to reach the target of 1.5 million zero emission vehicles on the road by 2025.

The state has numerous available rebates and incentives – including those from utilities. And the 3 major utilities are investing heavily in EV charging infrastructure programs. California is not only setting the pace but is showing other states how EV adoption will eventually roll out.

https://www.slideshare.net/LorenEVEvangelist/california-evs-by-the-numbers-99084782
https://evadoption.com/california-evs-by-the-numbers-20-statistics-that-might-surprise-you/

California reaffirms state emission, electric-car rules for 2025
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1109565_carb-reaffirms-state-emission-electric-car-rules-for-2025

California will spend $2.5 billion between now and 2025 to install more charging stations and hydrogen fueling stations throughout the state. It will also beef up its incentives and rebate programs for people who buy zero emissions cars. Right now, there are about 350,000 zero-emissions vehicles on the road in California.
https://gas2.org/2018/03/06/california-executive-order-doubles-down-on-ev-mandate/

Here's the best part we are getting Volkswagen to pay of some of this.

“The plan calls for expanding the number of EV charging stations in the state from 14,000 today to 250,000. Fast charging stations will increase from 1,500 to 10,000 and hydrogen refueling stations will jump from 31 today to 200. Some of the cost of expanding the charging infrastructure will be paid for money Volkswagen has agreed to pay to settle claims connected to its diesel cheating scandal.


Need more?



 

Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3757 on: March 10, 2019, 12:50:04 am »
I have to go to bed now but why would global car makers adjust their global plans?
If ice cars sell globally they ate going to produce them, o matter what happens in California.
In Europe we always had smaller more fuel efficient cars then in the US simply because the price of fuel plus taxes was many times higher than in the us.
So maybe that is a better way forward for your country, but only California, I am not convinced this would turn the tide.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3758 on: March 10, 2019, 12:53:42 am »
250000 charging points sounds like a lot but the Netherlands currently has 122000 charging points and will need over 20 times more to get to 3 million charging points (yes, I have used my calculator this time) if nearly all cars are electric. The Netherlands is 10 times smaller than California and has less than half the number of people. Who is going to pay for all those charging points?
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 

Offline Someone

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3759 on: March 10, 2019, 12:59:17 am »
If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
There is a room, its the road, there is an elephant in it, 4 seat vehicles with single occupants.
http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml
You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3760 on: March 10, 2019, 01:00:16 am »
I have to go to bed now but why would global car makers adjust their global plans?
If ice cars sell globally they ate going to produce them, o matter what happens in California.
In Europe we always had smaller more fuel efficient cars then in the US simply because the price of fuel plus taxes was many times higher than in the us.
So maybe that is a better way forward for your country, but only California, I am not convinced this would turn the tide.

You need to understand the history of the anti-pollution laws.  The Supreme court has allowed every state to make there own anti-pollution laws.  Car manufactures were looking at this and realized they might have 50 different requirements to meet, one for every state.  At the time California set the toughest standards, with New York, New Jersey, Connecticut following with slightly relaxed laws.  For the car makers they saw this as impossible.  With California having the toughest requirements they could have said screw you and not sell any cars in California, but then again we buy a lot of cars.  I think more than any other state and something like over 10% of new car sales are in California.  So the car companies said screw it.  We will make one car for the California market if all of the other states agree to abide by California's standards.

I can't say for sure, but I'm sure other countries have adopted some of our anti-pollution laws.  So instead of developing engines and antipollution devices for each country they use what they already have for California.







 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3761 on: March 10, 2019, 01:04:58 am »
250000 charging points sounds like a lot but the Netherlands currently has 122000 charging points and will need over 20 times more to get to 3 million charging points (yes, I have used my calculator this time) if nearly all cars are electric. The Netherlands is 10 times smaller than California and has less than half the number of people. Who is going to pay for all those charging points?

Not sure if you know how to use a calculator.  Why aren't your politicians doing what we are doing in California.  Get VW to pay for some of it.  VW is paying billions in fines.  What will you folks do with the money?  Something stupid like biofuels or hydrogen?
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3762 on: March 10, 2019, 01:05:38 am »
If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
There is a room, its the road, there is an elephant in it, 4 seat vehicles with single occupants.
http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml
You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!
That is also an option and over here I see more and more electric micro cars. The problem however is that these don't mix very well with regular traffic. In the Netherlands these are about to be banned from the bike lanes so the micro cars will have to mix with regular traffic which make the micro cars less attractive to people due to traffic jams and safety.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3763 on: March 10, 2019, 01:10:06 am »
If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
There is a room, its the road, there is an elephant in it, 4 seat vehicles with single occupants.
http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml
You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!

Not in California or Texas my friend.  Our highly skilled drivers get into too many accidents.  Next to suicide death by car accident is the number 2 killer.  Don't see anyone in California giving up their 4 seater tank to travel around in a small lightweight car that can will disappear when two semitrucks collide.  Or be blown off the road in a wind storm.

Nice idea, but not practical for us. 
 

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3764 on: March 10, 2019, 01:32:21 am »
If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
There is a room, its the road, there is an elephant in it, 4 seat vehicles with single occupants.
http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml
You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!

Not in California or Texas my friend.  Our highly skilled drivers get into too many accidents.  Next to suicide death by car accident is the number 2 killer.  Don't see anyone in California giving up their 4 seater tank to travel around in a small lightweight car that can will disappear when two semitrucks collide.  Or be blown off the road in a wind storm.

Nice idea, but not practical for us.
Tragedy of the common, take away those tanks and everyone is better off, but individually you are incentivised to have your personal tank.
https://www.darkerside.org/2013/04/strict-liability-an-idiots-guide/
If your road safety is a problem, continuing to ignore the cause of it won't make it better. The elephant is clear.
 

Offline Someone

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3765 on: March 10, 2019, 01:42:39 am »
If you keep focussing on efficiency your view is much too narrow. You have to look at the bigger picture to see where you can reduce the amount of CO2 output. ICE cars can run on bio-fuel for example. And because the existing ICEs are suitable to run on bio-fuel it is a very cost effective solution too. Also there is a lot of room for optimising ICEs using hybrids & downsized engines.
There is a room, its the road, there is an elephant in it, 4 seat vehicles with single occupants.
http://www.withouthotair.com/cA/page_257.shtml
You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!
That is also an option and over here I see more and more electric micro cars. The problem however is that these don't mix very well with regular traffic. In the Netherlands these are about to be banned from the bike lanes so the micro cars will have to mix with regular traffic which make the micro cars less attractive to people due to traffic jams and safety.
This is a problem of registration and compliance, the microcars you think of are the quadricycles:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadricycle_(EU_vehicle_classification)
Around the world are similar power, weight, or speed limits for small vehicles. There is nothing stopping them being built with higher power engines and highways speeds, except for the laws which prevent them being registered/used. Here in Australia such vehciles would need to be registered as a full car:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/300727/renault-twizy-lands-in-australia/
But due to anticipated low demand the companies arent investing the big sums of money to get homologation (so you can't even register it if import one privately).

Just downsizing the vehicle rapidly improves economy which is perfectly suited to city cars that don't travel big distances:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_electric_drive
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3766 on: March 10, 2019, 02:35:11 am »
Looking for cars which get 100 miles to the gallon? The Peel P50 does.  Parking's not an issue either, just park it in your office.


https://youtu.be/dJfSS0ZXYdo
 

Offline NiHaoMike

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3767 on: March 10, 2019, 02:35:42 am »
You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!
Don't even need to downsize by much - a Prius gets 50 MPG.
Around the world are similar power, weight, or speed limits for small vehicles. There is nothing stopping them being built with higher power engines and highways speeds, except for the laws which prevent them being registered/used. Here in Australia such vehciles would need to be registered as a full car:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/300727/renault-twizy-lands-in-australia/
But due to anticipated low demand the companies arent investing the big sums of money to get homologation (so you can't even register it if import one privately).
If those tiny cars are not allowed on the roads for being "unsafe", what about motorcycles that are even more unsafe?
Cryptocurrency has taught me to love math and at the same time be baffled by it.

Cryptocurrency lesson 0: Altcoins and Bitcoin are not the same thing.
 
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Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3768 on: March 10, 2019, 02:42:16 am »
You want to talk about efficiency? Small cheap vehicles that can be used for the majority of single occupant trips. Be that microcars or whatever. You could halve overall transportation energy use with that measure alone!
Don't even need to downsize by much - a Prius gets 50 MPG.
Around the world are similar power, weight, or speed limits for small vehicles. There is nothing stopping them being built with higher power engines and highways speeds, except for the laws which prevent them being registered/used. Here in Australia such vehciles would need to be registered as a full car:
https://www.caradvice.com.au/300727/renault-twizy-lands-in-australia/
But due to anticipated low demand the companies arent investing the big sums of money to get homologation (so you can't even register it if import one privately).
If those tiny cars are not allowed on the roads for being "unsafe", what about motorcycles that are even more unsafe?

In California we call them donor cycles.  Riders of motor cycles here have donated countless organs.  I live in the San Francisco Bay Area and it seems like there's a donor or two every week.
 
 

Offline Someone

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3769 on: March 10, 2019, 04:22:26 am »
If those tiny cars are not allowed on the roads for being "unsafe", what about motorcycles that are even more unsafe?
Imagine a population/world in the present day that didn't have private motor vehicles but everything else was the same. Trucks deliver goods and professional drivers move vehicles around in a much safer manner. Now you stand up in public and propose that:

Everyone should be allowed to operate a 2 tonne armoured metal box, that has nothing keeping it from colliding with other objects beyond the skill and attention of the driver. We need to reduce the licensing barrier to entry for vehicle use because.... [insert argument here]

You'd be laughed out of town in the current safety environment in most countries, private cars only continue to exist because they have been grandfathered into "safety" considerations. If we moved to smaller and lighter vehicles it would be a net positive improvement in safety. As for motor cycles, they can be driven safely but the self selecting group of people who use them are more likely to be high risk takers and drive them in very unsafe manners, this inflates the average rate of deaths and injuries. Even so the majority of accidents are found to be not the motor cyclists fault but with external sources. More reading is available here:
http://www.maids-study.eu/pdf/MAIDS2.pdf
 

Offline DougSpindler

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3770 on: March 10, 2019, 04:59:00 am »
If those tiny cars are not allowed on the roads for being "unsafe", what about motorcycles that are even more unsafe?
Imagine a population/world in the present day that didn't have private motor vehicles but everything else was the same. Trucks deliver goods and professional drivers move vehicles around in a much safer manner. Now you stand up in public and propose that:

Everyone should be allowed to operate a 2 tonne armoured metal box, that has nothing keeping it from colliding with other objects beyond the skill and attention of the driver. We need to reduce the licensing barrier to entry for vehicle use because.... [insert argument here]

You'd be laughed out of town in the current safety environment in most countries, private cars only continue to exist because they have been grandfathered into "safety" considerations. If we moved to smaller and lighter vehicles it would be a net positive improvement in safety. As for motor cycles, they can be driven safely but the self selecting group of people who use them are more likely to be high risk takers and drive them in very unsafe manners, this inflates the average rate of deaths and injuries. Even so the majority of accidents are found to be not the motor cyclists fault but with external sources. More reading is available here:
http://www.maids-study.eu/pdf/MAIDS2.pdf

I have no disagreement with you.  In the Bay Area I think you would be surprised how many motorcycle accidents are the riders fault.  I was on the freeway doing 80 MPH and a guy on a motor cycle pulled up next to me, and he signaled me to watch.  He then dropped back about half a mile.  Next thing I new he as doing 100+ (MPH) on the back wheel.  We call them wheelies.  I nominated him for a Darwin award. 

The last accident I was in a motorcycle driver I was nearly stopped on the freeway.  The guy knew he could not stop and laid his bike down on the asphalt.  I still have the speedometer and tachometer impressions in my bumper.  If the guy had not dropped the bike I am sure he would have gone flying over the top of my car into the one in front of me.

One more story.  SF/Oakland Bay Bridge.  My buddy was on the upper deck which is few hundred feet about the water.  He's can't remember what happened but he was sent flying over the edge of the bridge.  Lucky for him he hit one of the supporting cables which hold the deck of the bridge to the suspension cable.  Those cables are only an 2" in diameter and spaced 20 feet or so apart.  It was his lucky day he hit that cable and didn't go for a swim.  Crud, can't even think what it would have been like if made the dive into the water with his helmet on. 


Ever think if cars hadn't been invented yet.  And Benz today was trying to describe to the government his new invention for the car? 
Benz - My invention called a car will have 15 gallons of highly combustible gasoline in a tank just a few feet from the driver.  The gasoline will be used to power an engine that's heated to 350 degrees just a few feet from the driver on the other side.  And lets not talk about the pollution or carbon monoxide and dioxide which will be emitted.  And these car things we hurl people down the road at 60 MPH.

Think the government today would approve of such an invention? 

Now compare that to a Baker electric car.  No chance of a gasoline explosion, no 1,000 pound mass of iron heated to 350 degrees.  Not exhaust fumes, no pollution and no noise.

Seems to me the EV would easily receive approval today and the ICE would fade into history as a crazy idea that's way too dangerous.  Kind of like the atomic powered planes the Soviets built and flew.  Seemed like a good idea at the time but way too dangerous.
 
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Offline Kjelt

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3771 on: March 10, 2019, 09:06:24 am »
Perhaps there is also a big difference in drivers quality.
It takes here average 20+ lessons of an hour, theoretical test and final 1 hour practical driving test  to get your driving license. Lot of people flunk the first time.

But perhaps better hear it from an american at 0:50

https://youtu.be/lNxe2aM7w0Y
 

Offline Simon

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3772 on: March 10, 2019, 09:07:43 am »
We went through a time when people made steam engine cars but they were too dangerous and the only steam road vehicles that ever got any.... erm.... traction were steam tractors and some trucks that did local deliveries. I'm pretty sure someone in the 50's decided they could have a nuclear powered car.

The thing we do with every new technology is over estimate it's immediate impact and underestimate it's long term impact. Old sci fi films show this over and over.
 

Offline Simon

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3773 on: March 10, 2019, 09:10:26 am »
Perhaps there is also a big difference in drivers quality.
It takes here average 20+ lessons of an hour, theoretical test and final 1 hour practical driving test  to get your driving license. Lot of people flunk the first time.

But perhaps better hear it from an american at 0:50

https://youtu.be/lNxe2aM7w0Y

It's not about how much practice you get and if you .pass first time. I think most issues are culture and personality related. I hate driving in italy. I recently went back there on holiday and friends were surprised at some of what they saw as they were from the UK and i was like, yea? I did warn you they drive like this. My Italian friend that is a nervous driver did not even want to drive.
 

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Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3774 on: March 10, 2019, 09:29:23 am »
And she speaks alot about the less wasteful way of life that america does not have. Because america is all about big consumption and big waste, - make america great again.
 


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