When you have the new transistor and solder it in, leave the collector open or interrupt the B+ somewhere else.
Then scope the base signal, compare it to waveform 10 in the service manual.
I got a couple of new S2055N transistors. I took the precaution of measuring the new ones too - when measuring B-E/E-B on diode test the meter would still beep for continuity, but measuring resistance they were 40 ohms, which is close to what the built-in B-E resistor is supposed to be (50 ohms), and everything else checks out, so they seem to be good.
Bent the collector pin up and out of the way and soldered one in. Probed the base pin with my scope, as well as measuring the B+. The B+ was a solid 135V, and I got a regular-looking waveform of approx. 15.67kHz on the 'scope (see attached image). Voltage seems a bit low compared to what the service manual says, though. I got 4.7V p-p, and it says 12V.
No magic smoke released or anything, so it seems to be happy so far. Interestingly, about 10 seconds after power-on, it started flashing another, different error code on the LED. This time it was 4 flashes, which apparently means "no vertical sync" according to the service manual.
I gave the board a good look over for bad solder joints. Looking very closely at the horizontal drive transformer (T531), it seemed like there
might be a very small hairline crack around one of the pins, but it was very hard to tell. I re-soldered all the joints on it anyway as a precaution.
Anyway, that's all I had time for this evening. Tomorrow I'll solder the transistor back in fully and see how it goes.