So just to follow up, I ended up reverse engineering most of the circuit and did not really find anything surprising. I also removed each of the capacitors and most of them showed something reasonable although one read only about 6pF. Just for grins I tried a 0.1uF cap I had laying around and that made absolutely no discernible difference so who knows. As it turns out though the electronics were working fine and the problem turned out to be alignment of the gears. There are two parts to controlling the chime. First there is a printed encoder wheel driven by the hour hand shaft, that controls the number of chimes by connecting various combinations of 4 pins to Vcc. Then to trigger the chime exactly at the top and bottom of the hour there is a cam on the minute shaft with a little lever that moves a separate set of contacts, this allows it to trigger the chime at precisely the right moment as the lever drops off the edge of each cam face. What was happening is the encoder was not quite aligned, so sometimes the chime would trigger when it was in a valid position, but other times it would trigger while there was an illegal configuration on the control pins and that would cause weird numbers of chimes. Now I have it working *almost* perfectly, I just need to take it apart again and move it one tooth because every now and then it chimes too many times but it's pretty close.