Author Topic: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?  (Read 1894 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline FraserTopic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13868
  • Country: gb
The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« on: April 08, 2025, 01:10:17 pm »
We live in “interesting” times and it will be interesting to see how things pan out.

For most of my life I have envied Americans because they could buy sophisticated IT and equipment at prices far cheaper than in the U.K. The reason was usually OEM regional market pricing and the U.K. VAT that currently stands at 20%. VAT can really hurt when buying expensive items ! Now I see the imposition of import Tariffs on goods coming into the USA from China and I have sympathy for my American friends “across the pond”. This imposition of fees when buying consumer goods will come as quite a shock, especially when you look at the tariff percentages being applied ! At this rate, it might be cheaper for Americans to buy Chinese goods from the U.K. !
That said, I wonder if tariffs are applied to “country of manufacture” ?

I am interested on how this turn of events will affect the thermal imaging camera market, both in the USA and Worldwide. These cameras are not exactly inexpensive, especially when you get into the pro-Sumer market segment. The tariffs could add a sizeable chunk of money to the cost of imported thermal cameras :( The USA has FLIR and Seek Thermal as manufacturers of thermal imaging equipment, but many of the FLIR products are made in China and Estonia ! Then there is the issue of price point and capabilities. Chinese made thermal cameras have impressed me in recent years. The capability and performance of Chinese microbolometers and associated image processing has come on in leaps and bounds during the Pandemic when great resources were made available to mass produce thermal imaging systems for human temperature measurement. The Chinese thermal cameras regularly offer decent resolution combined with a 25fps frame rate. In the face of such Chinese imports, FLIR and Seek Thermal struggled to impress with their consumer grade products.

The introduction of tariffs to Chinese thermal camera imports may actually provide FLIR and Seek Thermal with a degree of “market protection” if they can produce their products in the USA. That said, this leaves Americans with a more limited choice of thermal imaging technology unless they are willing to pay higher prices for China made products after tariffs are applied. I would be sad to lose the opportunity to buy competitively priced thermal cameras that offer decent imaging and frame rates.

How will the tariffs impact Chinese thermal imaging camera manufacturers ? I honestly do not know, but some manufacturers are, in truth, “Government owned” so relatively protected. China will continue to produce affordable thermal imaging products and may even invest in making ever better systems at more affordable prices. If the USA market becomes difficult for them to sell into, they will either receive Government support to continue selling into that market, but at lower point of import prices, or they may focus their marketing on other parts of the World where their products are welcomed with open arms.

As I said at the beginning of this post, we live in “interesting” times and how the tariffs debacle ends we do not know. I still laugh when I see comments from some Americans saying that products in the USA will drop in price due to the import Tariffs ! It would appear that some people do not understand how tariffs actually work. One lady was very happy, saying that, at last, the prices of Apple and Samsung phones would drop from their “ridiculous” $1100+ price point. The replies to her post were withering ! Some forecasts say the price of an iPhone could increase to $2300  :scared:  If this is reflected in the thermal imaging market, it will stifle the choice that is currently available to USA consumers. As has been stated regarding Apple iPhone production in the USA, Chinas labour rates are significantly lower than those in the USA, so production costs will soar.

I just purchased an “as new” high measurement accuracy Hikvision DS-TP21B manual focus thermal camera for £100 on eBay U.K. It is from the series Hikvision offered for human temperature measurement but is an oddity in that it can measure from -20 Celsius up to +100 Celsius without being crippled to the 30C to 45C measurement range normally provided for such use cases. The DS-TP21B is in fact a modified HikMicro M10 camera. The camera uses a very nice (better than Lepton) 160x120 17um pixel microbolometer so it is in the FLIR Lepton 3 marketplace at that resolution, but it is a great little camera that I used to find a fault in a laptop without difficulty :) The prices of used thermal cameras appear to have dropped significantly since the pandemic with many being offered at or around the £100 mark and taking time to sell. Maybe it is an option in the USA for people to buy used cameras rather than new ones at inflated prices. There must be a lot hanging around since their use in the pandemic. I cannot afford to buy new cameras anymore but I have been pleasantly surprised at what I can buy used at great prices these days  :-+ A good quality used camera can often be a better buy than a new, similarly priced, budget model. I would certainly have to think long and hard before buying a consumer grade <9fps FLIR camera these days.

To my friends in the USA…. You are in my thoughts

Fraser
« Last Edit: April 08, 2025, 11:44:47 pm by Fraser »
If I have helped you please consider a donation : https://gofund.me/c86b0a2c
 

Offline Bill W

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 1157
  • Country: gb
    • Fire TICS
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2025, 07:22:02 pm »
This would seem a more reasoned analysis of the outcome on iPhone costs, and similar high end consumer kit won't be much different

https://9to5mac.com/2025/04/07/iphone-price-trump-tariffs/

The 54% (or now 102%, who knows what tomorrow) goes onto the factory build cost - estimated around $500 (if the Chinese are using the right parts)
The step to $1100 retail is markup and Apple profits & development recovery, all inside the US.

IMO around $1299 is probably the highest retail outcome as Apple will absorb some of the tariffs if only to keep selling them.
Beyond that the $300 extra for US build starts to look attractive, giving $800 finished in the US.

As for FLIR, I'd expect a tariff offset deal as the sensors come from the US to Estonia, or change to plugging in the sensors and calibrating in the US for US sale.
 
The following users thanked this post: Fraser

Offline Stray Electron

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2357
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2025, 08:04:53 pm »
  Frankly, I'm already astonished the Americans are willing to spent $1100 to $1200 for a cell phone!  My wife's niece has a nice one and I asked what it costs and my wife told me that it was over $1600! 

   In the near term, things are going to expensive for those folks that can't control their impulses and have to have the newest gadget right now! I am more concerned about the many everyday items such as shoes and clothing that simply are not made in the US any longer.  I also expect that the wiley Chinese will very quickly move production of a lot of items to a very cheap labor country, probably in Africa or South America, that has a low tariff rate in the US.  They (the Chinese) have been in the process of doing that for some years now.

  A couple of months ago Apple announced that they were building a plant (I think in Texas or Arizona) and that they were going to build their new phones there. I'm betting that they're going to put a Rush! on that now so we'll see how long that takes. If Trump and the new administration waves some of the normal environmental studies and the other BS that usually takes years, if not decades, then Apple could have their new factory operating within a year or two. The REAL question for businesses is will the rules all change with the next administration or any of the ones that follow shortly. Businesses simply can't afford to make huge investments that will take many years to recover the costs unless they can be certain that the situation (regulations, tariffs, taxes, labor laws, etc) won't suddenly change.
 
The following users thanked this post: Fraser

Offline Stray Electron

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2357
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2025, 08:11:31 pm »
 Fraser,

   It seems to me that if Trump can come to an agreement with the British and the Europeans to reduce their tariff to zero then this could be a great benefit to you and the other consumers in those countries since their govenments would be forced to remove the VAT tax on American made products. Trump does consider VAT to be a form of a tariff and the VAT is going to have to go as far as he's concerned. 
 
The following users thanked this post: Fraser

Offline Hazel

  • Contributor
  • Posts: 12
  • Country: au
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2025, 01:30:08 am »
As a thermal camera brand from China, we have not felt the impact of the increased tariffs from the USA for the time being, perhaps because our main customers are not there. But anyway, it's not a very good thing for us.
 
The following users thanked this post: Fraser

Offline FraserTopic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13868
  • Country: gb
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2025, 01:45:44 pm »
With the import tariff on goods from China now at 104% I can see USA based stocks of Chinese manufactured thermal cameras selling quite quickly. I understand that the US personal importation duty and tax free allowance is also to be scrapped, as has already occurred in the U.K. Some USA based retailers are pausing new stock due from China as the World watches the trade war escalate. The problem for companies thinking of relocating to the USA for production is the unpredictability of the current situation, with no firm indications of how long this economic battle will last. There is no point in investing Millions of Dollars in US production facilities if the tariffs are reduced in the near future. This really is a bit of a mess and sadly I can see the innocent American public taking a hammering financially :( This will surely stifle affordable thermal imaging equipment ownership in the USA. The alternative is to buy Seek Thermal and FLIR products if they can manufacture in the USA and sell at sensible prices that the public can afford. It might be a golden opportunity for Seek Thermal who always wanted to provide thermal imaging for the masses at affordable prices. If they can just get the noise levels in their microbolometers a bit lower, they would be onto a winner.
 
Against a background of increased prices, at least for the moment, in the USA, consumers concern may lead to a downturn in the purchases of “luxury” items such as thermal imaging kit. This is likely irrelevant in the “bigger picture” but, for me, it is an indicator of what may be to come for the American public in many areas of the consumer market. This is not even considering the effect on US manufacturers who rely upon components and technology from China for the production of products and systems sold in the USA and abroad. Those companies may find it hard to source affordable alternatives within the USA so just have to accept the 104% cost hike in their BoM parts from a China.

Whilst I have met Americans who dislike buying equipment from China, and that is their right, we cannot avoid the fact that China is a superpower in the world of electronics and electronic product production. This situation has been driven by the desire of Western manufacturers to lower production costs and take advantage of Chinese high tech production capabilities with low labour costs. In truth, we (the West) cannot suddenly cry “foul” and stop using China as our source of affordable products. This is a symbiotic relationship between the West and China. With China being a willing partner as it provided them with the drive to expand their various industries. We saw during the pandemic how reliant the West is on China for all manner of products. At a Government level, this situation is strategically bad with the classic saying “all your eggs in one basket” being applicable. It is understandable that moves may be made to remove a single point of failure in a product supply chain but such needs to be done carefully over a period of time for all involved to respond and adjust. My comments are limited to just thermal imaging product availability to citizens in the USA, but the bigger picture is becoming scary for all of us as escalation between governments can get very ugly and there will always be collateral damage. Just think about how much essential medical equipment comes from China. Cost increases in the medical sector are a nightmare for everyone :( How long will it be before China decides to openly supply advanced thermal imaging and other Dual Use technology to Mr Putin ? They have products to sell and when one marketplace is closed to them, they will find others to buy their inventory. China has delivered affordable and capable thermal imaging equipment to much of the world when USA based companies such as FLIR maintained high prices and, in some cases, inferior products. It is China who has driven the consumer thermal imaging market to what we enjoy today. We may not like that situation but China have done us a favour in this respect whilst providing their own country with technology advancements and employment in new factories.

I will get off my soap box now but I truly hope that sense prevails and the trade wars subside quickly. We can but hope.

Fraser
« Last Edit: April 09, 2025, 08:04:07 pm by Fraser »
If I have helped you please consider a donation : https://gofund.me/c86b0a2c
 
The following users thanked this post: Stray Electron

Offline nikitasius

  • Regular Contributor
  • *
  • Posts: 188
  • Country: fr
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2025, 01:50:14 pm »
My 2 cents will go to UK & China because i'm European, haha  :-DD
There are idlers that want to have money without working and fools that are ready to work without becoming rich.
 
The following users thanked this post: Fraser

Offline FraserTopic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13868
  • Country: gb
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2025, 02:40:23 pm »
China may start expanding their target market …….
If I have helped you please consider a donation : https://gofund.me/c86b0a2c
 
The following users thanked this post: svgurus

Offline FraserTopic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13868
  • Country: gb
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2025, 07:35:16 pm »
Just saw that the Tariff for Chinese goods entering the USA is now 125% !  :palm:
If I have helped you please consider a donation : https://gofund.me/c86b0a2c
 

Offline wraper

  • Supporter
  • ****
  • Posts: 18296
  • Country: lv
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2025, 07:57:02 pm »
Fraser,

   It seems to me that if Trump can come to an agreement with the British and the Europeans to reduce their tariff to zero then this could be a great benefit to you and the other consumers in those countries since their govenments would be forced to remove the VAT tax on American made products. Trump does consider VAT to be a form of a tariff and the VAT is going to have to go as far as he's concerned.
Will never happen. VAT has nothing to do with import tariffs and is a sales tax in a nutshell. It's applied to all goods regardless if they're local or imported. Now imagine situation when every local European producer is charged with VAT, yet US goods are sold at stores tax free.
 

Offline Stray Electron

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2357
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2025, 11:28:11 pm »
Now imagine situation when every local European producer is charged with VAT, yet US goods are sold at stores tax free.


  Got it.  But I think that it (zero-zero tariffs) is still one of Trump's goals.  If so then the European countries may be FORCED to reduce their VAT taxes or see their industries forced out of business economically. That or those industries will be forced to produce their products more economically so that even with VAT added they can compete with American made products.

   Not matter which way it goes, I think that the governments of many high-tariff nations are going soon face a considerable loss of revenue from the tariffs on American made goods, and sooner or later probably from the VAT on their own citizens as well, and they are going to have to drastically reduce their expenses and their operating budgets.
 

Offline Stray Electron

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 2357
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2025, 11:31:23 pm »
Just saw that the Tariff for Chinese goods entering the USA is now 125% !  :palm:

   China escalated to 84% last night and Trump retaliated with 125% today, effective immediately!

  The Great Tariff War has begun! Hold onto your seats!
 

Offline dalittle

  • Contributor
  • Posts: 23
  • Country: us
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2025, 05:31:22 am »
So, this is not thermal imaging speak, but I am an old veteran of thermal imaging industry.

Are these tariffs all about China?

From personal experience, I remember doing business in China when Hu Jintao was the President of the PRC.  I also remember how the environment changed when Xi Jinping took over.  I also remember when President Xi launched an anti-corruption effort to knock out corruption (as stated), and instead, pretty much kicked-out a lot of the Hu loyalists and replaced with his own people. I remember when Xi was “elected” to an unprecedented third term in office. I also remember when the attitudes of US government people whom we worked very closely with changed toward China. That happened approx. 1 to 2 years into the Xi presidency. The stealing of international IP, the hidden agendas of the belt and road initiatives, surveilling of foreign nationals, bribery, the building of AI models specifically targeting primarily US, British and European nationals using training data taken from the likes of TikTok and others. All that is under President Xi. I won’t get into the background and upbringing of President Xi here because that’s another whole conversation, but I believe it contributes to the way he thinks and builds his perspectives. China has acted with questionable motives, no doubt about it. But it wasn’t always that way. Under Hu, it seems like it was a completely different country.

Most of all, I was completely shocked to see on the internet video of how President Xi had Hu Jintao escorted out of a party meeting in a most undignified manner.  “面子” or lose face (mianzi). I can’t do the Chinese characters, I think this is correct but not sure.  In China, symbolism is powerful. This event had so many meanings to the Chinese. Xi was the only power, Hu is out, you will be out too unless you conform (Chinese are heavy on conforming). And this was not just a message for the “pinks” in China, it was for everyone to see!

When doing business in Asia, anywhere in Asia, westerners must know what they are doing. It’s very different. What is normal in one culture is abnormal in another. There are all kinds of things that may be seen as abnormal, maybe even unethical to the west, yet normal to Asians. These practices are not what we’re discussing, the Chinese are beyond and have largely been, shall we say, a little OTT.

So, fast forward to today – the Chinese economy is in very poor shape. They had a real estate crash. Remember that normal Chinese people (as opposed to CCP members) do not invest savings in the stock market, they invest in real estate. Their savings, and the life savings of their parents were largely wiped out. It is a major embarrassment to lose your parents’ money. Jobs are scarce, currency is being devalued (inflationary), Beijing is using up their surplus to support the economy to maintain harmony. Very important in Chinese culture – stability and harmony. Today, the Chinese banking system is very stressed, people are out of work, people are not spending, not returning to cities after lunar new year break, Beijing’s stimulus programs have not worked, people have no confidence, on and on. It’s a precarious time for President Xi. And there are internal forces at play as well. He has had to replace many of his supposed loyalists in the government and military. The military has major problems, he fired the head of the rocket force, on and on. Xi is losing his grip and there is a movement by a faction within some powerful families in the party to get rid of him. And now, huge tariffs from the Americans.  If you combine the percentage of Chinese goods exported from China direct to US, plus all those that are exported to Vietnam, Singapore, etc. for reexport to America (many in violation of export rules), some estimate that to be in the high thirties to forty percent of their exports. And exports are literally the only thing left moving the economy along in China.

Despite these issues, Xi has to appear strong and powerful. Hence the retaliatory measures. They try to control the narrative domestically. And Trump is forcing a “lose face” situation – dire situation for Xi. 

Today, it was said that China was selling US Treasuries creating an imbalance causing rates to rise at a time the US was issuing new bonds. That has far reaching implications globally. (i.e. everyone in England who has a mortgage.) In effect, they tried to cause a bid deficiency in the treasury market. As a result, Trump cancelled (postponed) tariffs on the rest of the world (effectively) but doubled down on China. That reset the financial markets and all is good in the west at least for now.   Some say the worldwide tariffs were created to condition the market and Trump was never serious about the absurd levels of tariffs the US implemented.  It seems to me, it is quite possible that much of this is carefully thought through and it isn’t as haphazard as it may appear.

Do you remember the white paper protests in China? There were literally millions of people in cities all over China participating in symbolic white paper protests. They were protesting covid lockdowns. China (under Xi’s personal direction) maintained covid lockdowns at a time when the rest of the world was moving on from covid. There was a fire in an apartment causing many deaths because the firefighters couldn’t get water to the building. The building was locked by government operatives for covid lockdown reasons. Recall that the police literally padlocked people into their apartments during covid. In any event, This was a major miscalculation by the CCP and they panicked. Literally overnight, they went from lockdowns to lifting ALL covid restrictions.  CCP feared being overthrown by the Chinese people. What the CCP fears most is being overthrown by the people. Hence maintaining harmony and stability is a priority.

The west is already at war with China. For several years there has been a war between China and the west (particularly but not solely just the US.) Western leaders have refused to admit it or deal with it. EU totally refused to see it. The British hoping it would be OK, kick the can down the road, as did the Americans. This goes back to the times of David Cameron and Obama. It was during Obama that the Chinese built military bases on the Spratly islands in the West Philippine Sea (or South China Sea). The war has intensified since then. Order of magnitude the last week or so. I don’t know if Trump is genius or crazy. History will have to decide.

But something has got to give. I don’t think China can survive these conditions long term. They will get crushed economically. Today, Amazon OEM cancelled almost all orders from Chinese vendors leaving them holding the bag. Can you imagine?  These are small businesses in China making cheap flashlights, plastic crap and other garbage we all buy. What are the businesses going to do? They can't eat flashlights.

Now, businesses, who over the past few years have already been decentralizing their supply chains away from China, will kick this effort into warp speed. 

This may be the end of Xi. I don’t think the Chinese people will tolerate this. How bad will it get?

We shall see. 
 
The following users thanked this post: Fraser, Stray Electron, nikitasius

Offline FraserTopic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13868
  • Country: gb
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2025, 09:11:17 am »
dalittle,

Thank you for this fascinating read. It has provided an excellent insight into China that I was not aware of. So, in effect, we are witnessing an “arm wrestle” between the USA and China with the Chinese leadership at stake. My concern with such a situation is that desperate people do desperate things and President Xi will not want to lose face as you say. Do we really want to poke this Dragon right now with all the other issues in the World ? I honestly do not know, but I hope that those doing the poking are prepared for escalation. In the USA many of the military and intelligence top brass have gone so I am left wondering what quality is left in those positions of great responsibility. I make no political comment here on the current US President but I surely hope that he knows what he is doing or we are all in trouble.

Thanks again for the valuable insight into the complexities of China  :-+

Fraser
« Last Edit: April 10, 2025, 09:13:00 am by Fraser »
If I have helped you please consider a donation : https://gofund.me/c86b0a2c
 
The following users thanked this post: Stray Electron

Offline coppercone2

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 12236
  • Country: us
  • $
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2025, 09:36:08 am »
I think its important to think about what china was like before the Deng reforms and interest from Nixon and others

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_and_opening_up

The political reforms lead to economic reforms and there seems to be a general feeling that the political reforms started to be undone under Xi in the late 2010's (theoretically leading to a increased 'command economy')

more political control of economic sectors means like poorer 'end line' decision making and possibly things taking a 'wrong turn' because the people at the end of the line can't decide how to 'crash' safely or react quickly because they need approval or have no say (driving a car 1 mile away by looking at it through binoculars while holding a walkie talkie talking to the driver while sitting on a chair in your balcony, with threat of arrest if he does anything but what you say)

I wonder if the CCP will 'grab the wheel' and implement strict 'master plan' that is supposed to fix everything that goes completely haywire... which seems to be kind of a hallmark of these systems of government. Their support base is likely to DEMAND their leader does some wise strict thing to 'fix' things, and that will be the popular demand... and say he is 'weak' if he tries to get others to figure out how to mitigate things individually. I think the way those guys operate they basically guarantee that their own supporters will depose them if they don't take this sort of action.. its really how they think. If you really believe in a strong leader, you will just get rid of the guy that went wimp and install some one that makes you feel safe. I hope their low level supporters are no longer as vehment as they used to be, because a few hours of reading history will tell you what will happen to the people that likely can make effective problem solvers (i.e. business owners) if someone comes along and starts making them feeling excessively patriotic with some ideas like "the business owners sold us out to the west and set up this whole problem".... it might be a bit more red then 'tax the rich'. At least right now it seems like they are trying to increase trade with other countries rather then isolate.. thankfully (many people suggest that a isolated china is actually more dangerous, not to mention you know whats going to start happening in there if it does isolate).

While you can't eat flash lights, you can put the factory workers, owners and government officials that endorsed it (which are now considered to have have been voluntarily selling out China) in a collective farm and use the lathe parts as a plow .... then you get some small amount of food under some patriotic worker and equipment remobilization program :-\


As for rare earth metals and stuff, I don't think that optical semiconductors use a significant amount of them, because of how small they are? I thought it would effect heavy things like magnets more. Because as expenisve as it is, the die of a optoelectronic component is really small.


I wonder how many pounds of rare earth elements are actually inside of say.... all the optoelectronic components (that you solder on) and how many pounds in pure optics elements? (like fiber lines, lens, filter window, etc...) world wide. Anyone wanna do a fermi estimate? (I don't know enough about the sector to try)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problem

While chips dies (emitter) are light, I wonder how it ends up looking for thousands of miles of doped fiberglass and all the couplers etc
« Last Edit: April 10, 2025, 10:09:34 am by coppercone2 »
 

Offline dalittle

  • Contributor
  • Posts: 23
  • Country: us
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2025, 03:38:18 am »
Fraser, I want to just comment on one thing you said:

“My concern with such a situation is that desperate people do desperate things and President Xi will not want to lose face as you say. Do we really want to poke this Dragon right now with all the other issues in the World ?”

I think you are spot on. Desperate people do desperate things. I’ve heard some expert Chinese people (living in the west), who analyze this stuff, addressing exactly the issue you raise. They are concerned that Xi will take desperate measures as he is on the back foot. Potentially, that would be an attempt to take over Taiwan. And the experts believe that if this occurs, the Americans (Trump) will surely respond in spades.  As for the British, when the Americans are in conflict, the British are there too – always. And visa versa. So, UK likely will get dragged in.

As an aside, the Europeans already have made anticipations and stated today that they will have zero tolerance for Chinese goods being dumped into Europe as a result of US tariffs. Same for the Aussies. 

And, as far as poking the bear (dragon), the dragon has officially been poked!

Personally, in the end, I believe that there will be a deal between the US and China. And China (Xi) will save face somehow.

I remember years ago, negotiating a deal with a well-known thermal imaging provider in China, and we just couldn’t get the specifics we needed to proceed. We had to break it off. So, we decided to manufacture a situation that we knew the Chinese couldn’t proceed with. This gave them the opportunity to be the ones that killed the deal.  They did, and that saved them face. And, as Americans, we couldn’t care less if we lost face or not. That’s not an American thing. Today, the CEO of the Chinese company and I are still good friends. I'm certain it would be different if I caused embarrassment.

Cheers.

 
The following users thanked this post: Fraser, zrq

Offline FraserTopic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13868
  • Country: gb
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2025, 10:24:41 am »
Dalittle,

Again, a very interesting insight from you  :-+ Thank you.

As you have detailed, China needs a way out of this mess that will not make them appear weak or the “loser”. I see that the tariff has risen to 145% now. Brinkmanship can be a very dangerous game unless you are VERY smart and know your opponent well.

Interesting to hear that Europe is already preparing itself for a potential mass influx of Chinese goods.

Regarding the U.K. and it’s “Special Relationship” with the USA in times of international conflict. The U.K. has no appetite for getting involved in a war beyond offering aid and diplomatic support. We have a Navy that is a mere shadow of its former self and our military has suffered from cuts for many years. It is said by some commentators that we could not recreate the task force that went to the Falklands in 1982 if such was needed in 2025. We sold/gave all our VTOL Harriers to the USA so effectively lost our reliable VTOL/STOL capability. ! Sad times.

So we will all have to brace ourselves for our unwilling participation in a political Roller Coaster ride and hope that the wheels do not come off !

Thanks again for the comments on China.

Fraser
« Last Edit: April 11, 2025, 10:26:40 am by Fraser »
If I have helped you please consider a donation : https://gofund.me/c86b0a2c
 

Offline coppercone2

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 12236
  • Country: us
  • $
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #17 on: April 11, 2025, 10:28:45 am »
I think that certain people in the UK are not happy with China after what happened in HK (national security laws) and it might be a weak factor that effects any decisions the UK might take regarding China conflict. There was a strong bond there for 100 years and 1997-2018 was like 'acceptable' for the old friends they had there but it went down hill. A big reason why countries get involved with conflicts is because there are like 'friends' in the area

I think it might be able to skew a equally divided decision a little, not as a economic factor but a kind of sympathy related one

I think the UK has a unique history with china because of hong kong. No one held like a city for 100 years right near the middle of the busy part of china other then the UK. It might mean UK has better intelligence and understanding of China in some respects because of that, since that is turned into political and cultural intrigue rather then just the kind of relationships developed through business transactions.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2025, 10:38:42 am by coppercone2 »
 

Offline tooki

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13606
  • Country: ch
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #18 on: April 11, 2025, 11:03:14 am »
  Frankly, I'm already astonished the Americans are willing to spent $1100 to $1200 for a cell phone!  My wife's niece has a nice one and I asked what it costs and my wife told me that it was over $1600! 
This isn’t an “Americans” thing, it’s a “people in developed nations” thing. And given that a mobile phone is, for a great many people, their primary or sole personal computing device, their primary or sole portable music player, their primary or sole gaming console, and their primary or sole camera, it suddenly doesn’t look so bad.

Let’s also not forget that years of inflation means $1600 isn’t as crazy as it might appear. Cellphones in the late 90s easily cost $600 and they could only make calls and send text messages. That $600 in 1998 is equivalent to $1200 now. (Don’t forget that in the past, the $600 cost of a phone was often hidden by it being subsidized down to zero or close to it, with you then paying it off as part of your monthly phone bill. But you were paying it!!) The original Motorola Razr V3 — which went on to be the most popular phone in the world for 3 years — initially cost $500 with subsidy under a 2-year contract back in 2004-05. That’s like paying over $800 today for a subsidized phone. When the first iPhone launched in 2007, it was also $500 subsidized with 2-year contract. ($100 more for the far more popular 8GB version.) The actual full cost was much higher, around double. (So around $1500 in 2025 money.) So after inflation, the true entry cost of iPhones has gone down significantly over the years.

And finally, let’s not forget that the entry price for iPhone is not $1100 as you suggest, it’s $600. Specifically, it’s $600 in 2025 dollars ;) with no subsidy. With subsidy you can get them for much less.



A couple of months ago Apple announced that they were building a plant (I think in Texas or Arizona) and that they were going to build their new phones there. I'm betting that they're going to put a Rush! on that now so we'll see how long that takes. …
Apple said nothing of the sort. The plant in Houston that they announced will make custom servers to power their server farms.

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2025/02/apple-will-spend-more-than-500-billion-usd-in-the-us-over-the-next-four-years/
« Last Edit: April 11, 2025, 11:08:11 am by tooki »
 

Offline FraserTopic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13868
  • Country: gb
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #19 on: April 11, 2025, 04:37:30 pm »
Back to the effect of the tariffs on thermal camera availability in the USA….

China have raised their Tariff to 125% but, more importantly, have stated that they will not raise it again, as such is pointless. They state that trade between the USA and China has effectively stopped due to the Tariffs and increasing them further makes no difference.
If this statement is correct, Americans will find it a lot harder to buy a budget priced and capable thermal camera until such time as this Tariff war subsides :( Let us hope that it is short lived and further escalation does not occur. Thankfully a thermal imaging camera is not exactly an “essential” in daily life but I have to wonder what a cessation of goods coming from China will do to the US consumer market, let alone the US manufacturing industry that needs China sourced components. It is like the Pandemic all over again, but limited to goods availability to the USA from China :(

Fraser
If I have helped you please consider a donation : https://gofund.me/c86b0a2c
 

Offline FraserTopic starter

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 13868
  • Country: gb
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #20 on: April 12, 2025, 04:31:37 pm »
An interesting turn of events. POTUS has provided a Tariff exemption on mobile phones and computers ! Not even the 10% baseline will apply.

I understand that electronic components and things like solar cells will also be covered by this exemption. I wonder if thermal imaging cameras will also benefit from this change of stance ?

The roller coaster ride continues !  :palm:

Fraser
If I have helped you please consider a donation : https://gofund.me/c86b0a2c
 
The following users thanked this post: tooki

Offline coppercone2

  • Super Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 12236
  • Country: us
  • $
Re: The effect of Tariffs on USA thermal camera sales ?
« Reply #21 on: April 12, 2025, 06:50:23 pm »
haha, I wonder how many scalpers got screwed when they thought their gonna be making a killing selling phones and video cards. the scalper issue with the 5000 series nvidea release makes my blood boil, just like the people that list a 65 year old HP power supply on ebay for $800 (and not restored ones mind you)

I wonder if some 'enteprenuer' is sitting on a mountain of thermal imagers now.

I am almost sure some mfer has a pallet of chinese flir's in his garage right now.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2025, 06:54:31 pm by coppercone2 »
 


Share me

Digg  Facebook  SlashDot  Delicious  Technorati  Twitter  Google  Yahoo
Smf