Author Topic: Computer/Software Predicts Big Issues On Earth >=50 Years Time, But ...  (Read 962 times)

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Offline MK14

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Check the date on the video.   :scared:

It is amazing, how much that video, has many rings of truth, now.  I'm rather surprised, how much they knew then, about now.  Pity it wasn't listened to, more constructively.

Videos like that, seem to have a special sort of quality, that seems to be missing, these days.

 

Offline SiliconWizard

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1973? What about Malthus 2 centuries earlier?
 
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Offline voltsandjolts

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Here's my list of things that will be much much better in 50 years:

 
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Offline MK14

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1973? What about Malthus 2 centuries earlier?

That was clever of him.  Interesting idea(s), and rather/very observant/perceptive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Robert_Malthus

Unless I've forgotten, I don't think I've heard of him.
 
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Offline MK14

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Here's my list of things that will be much much better in 50 years:

Here's my predicted list of things that will be worse, in 50 years time:
<*** ERROR: Catastrophic Forum Size Error - Rest of post Cancelled - TOO BIG TO DISPLAY ***>
 

Offline ebastler

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Check the date on the video.   :scared:

Sure. The "Limits to Growth" report to the Club of Rome dates from 1972. It was rather widely publicised back then. And while the resulting actions may not have been resolute enough, there certainly were actions which still resonate and have an impact today.
 
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Offline MK14

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Check the date on the video.   :scared:

Sure. The "Limits to Growth" report to the Club of Rome dates from 1972. It was rather widely publicised back then. And while the resulting actions may not have been resolute enough, there certainly were actions which still resonate and have an impact today.

I see, that is interesting.  My understanding is, that around that time, people were most worried and concerned about the fact that by the year 2000, it was predicted that we (the world), would almost completely run out of oil, and hence be without fuel for cars.

I'm glad at least some action, on that report was taken.
 

Online imo

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Those computer simulations at that time were based on rather simple models with a couple of parameters inside. Something like "Foxes and Rabbits Simulation".. I would expect 100-200 lines in Basic for that simulation in the video, imho..
 

Offline ebastler

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The models were indeed simple. But I think they still triggered important discussions and thought processes, and helped people to realize that growth could not be sustained forever. Humans are exceedingly bad at visualizing exponential growth, let alone a system of a few coupled differential equations...

The limitations of the "Limits to Growth" model, and the question whether or not they led to totally wrong conclusions, were discussed right after its publication. For example it was criticized that the model, and the report, neglected the potential positive effects of technical progress on resource consumption and availability.

Wikipedia has a decent article on the model, the report, and its reception:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
 
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Offline pcprogrammer

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and helped people to realize that growth could not be sustained forever.

And yet mankind still adheres to an ever growing economy :palm:

Only when the whole planet is stripped from its natural resources it will stop. And I'm not talking about just fossil fuels.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2022, 07:52:17 pm by pcprogrammer »
 
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Offline free_electron

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my prediction or 50 years from now:

- i'll most likely be dead (would be 102 then ...)
- we might have a code that can do proper rotary encoders with velocity adjust
- will be a big milestone for linux on the desktop ... promised for over half a century now.

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Any comments, or points of view expressed, are my own and not endorsed , induced or compensated by my employer(s).
 
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Offline free_electron

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and helped people to realize that growth could not be sustained forever.

And yet mankind still adheres to an ever growing economy :palm:

Only when the whole planet is stripped from its natural resources it will stop. And I'm not talking about just fossil fuels.
we'll be mining asteroids by then.  they found one that is 100% gold. it's worth billions ! But only when we leave it there. If we bring it to earth, gold would be so abundant its price would collapse and it would be worthless. actually there is so much gold on our planet that it is worthless. it's just because we can't get to it that it has a high value.  same with other trinkets like diamonds. same molecules as in a no2 pencil... just a bit different shape.
Professional Electron Wrangler.
Any comments, or points of view expressed, are my own and not endorsed , induced or compensated by my employer(s).
 
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Online Benta

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And yet mankind still adheres to an ever growing economy :palm:

Only when the whole planet is stripped from its natural resources it will stop. And I'm not talking about just fossil fuels.

Because everyone. And I really mean everyone (politicians, religious zealots, UN, NGOs, antiabortionists, aid organizations, I could go on forever)
all refuse to do a "root cause analysis".
The result of such an analysis would be: "There are too many humans on this planet!"

All focus is on short-term solutions (avoid hunger, stop burning fossile fuels etc.). But the long term solution is family planning. I'm no fan of China, but they seem to be the only nation realizing this (the one-child-policy).

 
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Offline AndyBeez

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2072? Queue playback... 8)

Code: [Select]
onGroupHysteria { alert("My Echo Dot just said.
That's great, it starts with an earthquake
Birds and snakes, and aeroplanes and Lenny Bruce is not afraid
Eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn
World serves its own needs
Don't mis-serve your own needs
Speed it up a notch, speed, grunt, no, strength
The ladder starts to clatter
With a fear of height, down, height
Wire in a fire, represent the seven games
And a government for hire and a combat site
Left her, wasn't coming in a hurry
With the Furies breathing down your neck
Team by team, reporters baffled, Trump, tethered, cropped
Look at that low plane, fine, then
Uh oh, overflow, population, common group
But it'll do, save yourself, serve yourself
World serves its own needs, listen to your heart bleed
Tell me with the Rapture and the reverent in the right, right
You vitriolic, patriotic, slam fight, bright light
Feeling pretty psyched
It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine
Six o'clock, T.V. hour, don't get caught in foreign tower
Slash and burn, return, listen to yourself churn
Lock him in uniform, book burning, bloodletting
Every motive escalate, automotive incinerate
Light a candle, light a motive, step down, step down
Watch your heel crush, crush, uh oh
This means no fear, cavalier, renegade and steering clear
A tournament, a tournament, a tournament of lies
Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives and I decline
It's the end of the world as we know it (I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine (time I had some time alone)
I feel fine (I feel fine)
It's the end of the world as we know it (time I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine (time I had some time alone)
The other night I drifted nice continental drift divide
Mountains sit in a line, Leonard Bernstein
Putin, Capitol Hill, Trump Junior
Birthday party, cheesecake, jellybean component, boom
You symbiotic, patriotic, slam but neck, right, right
It's the end of the world as we know it (time I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine (time I had some time alone)
")}

You can go find the video (if you're over 40)
« Last Edit: June 13, 2022, 08:49:21 pm by AndyBeez »
 

Offline TimFox

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Flat-screen televisions were the wave of the future for more than half my life.
 

Offline Bud

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Here's my list of things that will be much much better in 50 years:
Elon Musk will finally send tourists to the Moon.
Facebook-free life and Rigol-free shack.
 
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Offline MK14

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The result of such an analysis would be: "There are too many humans on this planet!"

It might just go in cycles, a bit like sometimes there are too many DRAM chips in the world, so the price collapses, and they sell like crazy.

Then there is a big factory fire, in the only place that makes the packaging, a major DRAM manufacturer in Asia, gets badly flooded out and major new computer and OS releases, means everyone needs to desperately upgrade their DRAMS. The price goes through the roof.

Some animals, some of the time, populations, show explosive and wildly excessive growth.  Causing over-population of that animal type.  Then real-life balances occur, such as shortages of the food types they need, big increases in their predators and so on, which sooner or later, re-balances out the populations.

I suspect, there are many other factors, affecting the planet, not just population size.

We seem to be in a time of relative disharmony, world-wide.  Which doesn't bode well, for agreeing action(s) on how to tackle climate change.

That video, sort of reminds me of the possibly golden past, which is no longer directly (unless a time-machine is invented), available.

I wonder if the internet, has contributed, to any modern life issues we may have, such as climate change.

I suppose we sort of need everyone, to agree and accept, less of things, in life.  Less people (or rather less new people, i.e. smaller families), less things, less travelling, less miscellaneous things, less new stuff, smaller cars and other downsizing, less energy consumption, etc.  That is a tricky thing to get sorted out.
Because things tend to be orientated, to what new things can we next buy, where can we travel to next, lets have a bigger family, and so on.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2022, 09:53:47 pm by MK14 »
 

Offline SiliconWizard

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And yet mankind still adheres to an ever growing economy :palm:

Only when the whole planet is stripped from its natural resources it will stop. And I'm not talking about just fossil fuels.

Because everyone. And I really mean everyone (politicians, religious zealots, UN, NGOs, antiabortionists, aid organizations, I could go on forever)
all refuse to do a "root cause analysis".
The result of such an analysis would be: "There are too many humans on this planet!"

All focus is on short-term solutions (avoid hunger, stop burning fossile fuels etc.). But the long term solution is family planning. I'm no fan of China, but they seem to be the only nation realizing this (the one-child-policy).

Just to bring this up a second time, but Malthus exactly made that analysis in the 18th century. Note that this is still controversial, and in a number of ways, this is a chicken-and-egg problem.

As to China, they stopped the one-child policy in 2015. Because the population was aging dangerously and would be on the verge of declining in a matter of one generation. So this does not apply anymore.

Population stability is a tricky business that cannot be handled long-term with simplistic measures.

The largest contributor of population growth is the availability of "cheap" energy. This is the main cause explaining the high growth rate of the world population over the last 2 centuries.
Cut the energy supply and you'll see a sharp decline.
Something that may very well happen over the next decades.
 

Offline pcprogrammer

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All very true.

What does not help is that the politicians are afraid of taking measures in the family planning and end of life department. 25 years ago world (over) population was part of the agenda, but nowadays it is seen as your basic right and pleasure and lets not toy with peoples rights and pleasures. This can be seen in Dutch politics about for instance fireworks. The are talking about reduction of nitrogen and pollution, but ban fireworks, no that we can't. Then people will get angry and not vote for us anymore.

Even though the Netherlands has a very liberal take on euthanasia it is still to restricted. There is only one person who can decide if you want to live or die and that is you. Not the government, not the church, not your family, just you. So let people who want to end their lives do so in a humain manner. I'm sure a lot of elderly people want this. And probably also younger people.

Talking about nature, it knows how to balance and control it self. Mankind seem to have lost that ability long time ago when they became "almighty". We think of our self's as the intelligent race, but in fact we are very stupid. Poisoning our living environment for profit, etc.

A nice statement I found a while back about the film Idiocracy, which plays in the future some 400 years from now, is "Mike Judge critiques the nonsense of the modern world in this dystopian 2006 comedy – which, in 2021, feels more like a documentary" https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2021/jul/19/idiocracy-a-disturbingly-prophetic-look-at-the-future-of-america-and-our-era-of-stupidity

The way out of it, I'm not sure if we can turn it around, but consume less and slow down and manage population growth will certainly help. I did my part, not for the environment, because back then it was not such an issue, but just because I did not want children and the wife had no problem with that. In fact it was the first question I asked on our second date. Not very romantic, but realistic. There is no compromising on basic instinct.


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