eevBLAB #63: How Affordable Are Electric Cars?

[coppice]

Yes, exactly my point. I'll just wait until Toyota comes up with their PHEV lineup (or EV), probably when the solid-state lithium hits the market. It doesnt make sense to invest into it with the current battery technology. Their resale value will drop by a huge amount, because everyone will go for the new high capacity batteries, that dont turn into a fireball if damaged.

PHEVs are a bit of a dead-end- a major advantage of EVs is that they are mechanically simple, a PHEV is the opposite.

Also Toyota should be shot for their "self-charging hybrid" bullshit which has done a lot of damage to public perception and information - people think a HEV is better than a PHEV because they don't need to plug it in 

You referenced a plug life video. In one of his other videos he compares the environmental effects of various cars, including non-plug in and plug in hybrids. He shows that the non-plug in kind can be better for the environment. The non-plug in hybrids typically have high efficiency Atkinson cycle engines, while the plug ins are mostly a conventional car with a motor added. I expect the plug in Prius is an exception here, as they added more battery capacity to a car with the Atkinson high efficiency framework from other Prius models.

[EEVblog]

A Tesla is $675 every 12 months or 20,000k

Nope. That inspection is highly optionnal, and nobody does that every year.

So the Tesla warranty is not contingent upon regular servicing?

[f4eru]

So the Tesla warranty is not contingent upon regular servicing?

Bingo !

If I choose not to service my Tesla car, will this void my warranty?
Your New Vehicle Limited Warranty or Used Vehicle Limited Warranty will not be affected if recommended service is not performed.
However, coverage under your Extended Service Agreement may be affected if the recommended service is not performed. See the Tesla Extended Service Plan Terms and Conditions for further details.

I think the extended service agreement does not even exist for the model3, they did not even bother to try to rip you off.
At delivery, they just said : "call us if you have a problem, you don't need regular maintenance."

[tom66]

HEVs still have some benefits, but only a 10-20% improvement on regular petrol cars as the engine runs more efficiently, you have stop-start that reliably works (unlike the bloody awful stop-start system on most new cars that gives up after the 2nd set of lights, or if it is cold, or if it is hot, or if the battery is low, or if the headlights are on, or if...) and regen can recuperate a bit of energy here and there that would otherwise be wasted.  They still need to always be fueled by petrol though.

PHEVs have a significant benefit over this because not only do you have a hybrid drive train with proper stop-start and low speed maneuvering on the electric system (so no clutch losses), you can also run them on electricity only for short journeys. So my PHEV lets me drive mostly on electric. But as Mike mentions the disadvantage is that there is the mechanical complexity of an engine for 10% of use cases.  Hard to justify that.

I've said it before but I'd like to see an i3 REx again but with a ~36kWh battery and a 15~20kW on board generator.  I think that could be a decent compromise over putting 70kWh batteries in every car. We will probably see economy cars (the Corollas and the like) fitted with these systems that will allow the vehicle to go longer journeys. Perhaps the generator could be a readily-detachable unit that could be lifted from the boot floor to reduce weight and increase capacity, when not needed. Such a generator could also be independently serviced without taking the car out of action when not needed.

[sokoloff]

I think the advantages available of an integrated generator (more exhaust muffling, routing the exhaust reliably outside the trunk/cabin, better heat management, locating more fuel in a convenient location within the car) are likely to outweigh the benefit of easy end-user removability.

[f4eru]

Removable REx ? Seeing the powertrain complexity in an ICE, this will not happen.
Why not a removable battery half ? Would be much simpler, as a stop gap solution before good range gets really cheap, which is only a few years away anyway.

[coppice]

Removable REx ? Seeing the powertrain complexity in an ICE, this will not happen.
Why not a removable battery half ? Would be much simpler, as a stop gap solution before good range gets really cheap, which is only a few years away anyway.

As I understand it, the BMW type Rex is probably not that hard to disconnect from the rest of the car, as its a pure generator set. It just needs unplugging, and perhaps a fuel feed disconnected. However, even a small generator set is pretty heavy. That's the key reason its interesting to be able to take it out of the car (well, that and perhaps increasing storage space). Its not going to be a quick lift in - lift out operation for the consumer.

[EEVblog]

PHEVs have a significant benefit over this because not only do you have a hybrid drive train with proper stop-start and low speed maneuvering on the electric system (so no clutch losses), you can also run them on electricity only for short journeys. So my PHEV lets me drive mostly on electric. But as Mike mentions the disadvantage is that there is the mechanical complexity of an engine for 10% of use cases.  Hard to justify that.

No it's not when that 10% or even 1% can make or break your buying decision.
And like I said, modern ICE cars are ridiculously reliable considering their complexity, that's why they offer 5-7 year warranties with confidence.

[nctnico]

I think you are letting yourself get ripped off by a car dealer if you pay 1500 euro per year for maintenance of a car.

Nope, that's realistic.
Sure. I had approx 400€ maintenance costs/Y for my old Diesel (and that is a real average figure including everything), because I did most myself.

You clearly bought the wrong car then. My previous car was a diesel (from Mazda) as well and that just needed oil and a timing belt every 100k km. Made in Japan and Denso parts for the fuel system. But that was a car from 1999. More modern diesels are maintenance nightmares and are costly to keep running. That is why I bought a gas/petrol car instead.

Before I buy a car I don't go by brand but I make a list with cars which match the requirements and budget. Then I research every car for common problems and how much they cost to fix. Based on that I buy the car with the lowest TCO regardless the brand. That is how you get to figures like 100 to 150 euro per year. The biggest cost I have is the oil change at 20k km / 1 year intervals.

With my very first car I made the mistake to have it serviced at regular intervals. Looking back I wonder why I paid all that money; it didn't add anything to the reliability. Since then what is broken gets fixed and nothing else. You can't cuddle or polish reliability into a car.

[mikeselectricstuff]

A Tesla is $675 every 12 months or 20,000k
https://www.drivezero.com.au/cars/tesla/tesla-maintenance-australia-details-and-pricing/

Tesla is not representative of "normal" EVs

[nctnico]

A Tesla is $675 every 12 months or 20,000k
https://www.drivezero.com.au/cars/tesla/tesla-maintenance-australia-details-and-pricing/

Tesla is not representative of "normal" EVs

I agree with this. People will hate me for writing it but Tesla is the 'Apple of cars'.

[nctnico]

PHEVs have a significant benefit over this because not only do you have a hybrid drive train with proper stop-start and low speed maneuvering on the electric system (so no clutch losses), you can also run them on electricity only for short journeys. So my PHEV lets me drive mostly on electric. But as Mike mentions the disadvantage is that there is the mechanical complexity of an engine for 10% of use cases.  Hard to justify that.

No it's not when that 10% or even 1% can make or break your buying decision.

Correct. Often people buy cars for 1% of the use case. Think about towing a caravan or bringing lots of stuff. After owning a sedan I ran back to a station wagon because the sedan didn't have any space at all. But it is not like I drive around with the back of the station car filled to the brim. When it comes to a car you have to buy something which matches 99.9% of your use cases because buying a second or third one is just too expensive. That is why hybrids make so much sense; they keep fuel consumption low so their CO2 emissions are on par with CO2 output of an EV (from the average electricity mix you find in most parts of the world) but have none of the hassles of EVs when you want to make a long trip.

[coppice]

PHEVs have a significant benefit over this because not only do you have a hybrid drive train with proper stop-start and low speed maneuvering on the electric system (so no clutch losses), you can also run them on electricity only for short journeys. So my PHEV lets me drive mostly on electric. But as Mike mentions the disadvantage is that there is the mechanical complexity of an engine for 10% of use cases.  Hard to justify that.

No it's not when that 10% or even 1% can make or break your buying decision.

Correct. Often people buy cars for 1% of the use case. Think about towing a caravan or bringing lots of stuff. After owning a sedan I ran back to a station wagon because the sedan didn't have any space at all. But it is not like I drive around with the back of the station car filled to the brim. When it comes to a car you have to buy something which matches 99.9% of your use cases because buying a second or third one is just too expensive. That is why hybrids make so much sense; they keep fuel consumption low so their CO2 emissions are on par with CO2 output of an EV (from the average electricity mix you find in most parts of the world) but have none of the hassles of EVs when you want to make a long trip.

Outside the US consumers don't own trucks, because in the few cases where they need to move a lot of stuff they can easily rent a truck. However, people don't take the same attitude to the few cases where they need to make a special trip with people, whether its a long range issue or carrying 7 people. They want their car to do everything they ever do that doesn't involve cargo. The psychology of this is interesting.

[tom66]

Correct. Often people buy cars for 1% of the use case. Think about towing a caravan or bringing lots of stuff. After owning a sedan I ran back to a station wagon because the sedan didn't have any space at all. But it is not like I drive around with the back of the station car filled to the brim. When it comes to a car you have to buy something which matches 99.9% of your use cases because buying a second or third one is just too expensive. That is why hybrids make so much sense; they keep fuel consumption low so their CO2 emissions are on par with CO2 output of an EV (from the average electricity mix you find in most parts of the world) but have none of the hassles of EVs when you want to make a long trip.

Really?

Average hybrid - say Toyota Prius.  About 50 miles per gallon or 4.7L/100km on motorway cruise.
Burning 1L petrol produces 2.31kg of CO2.  So, 100km = 10.8kg CO2. (108gCO2/km)  Plus other CO2-equivalents in small volumes like NOx and particulate matter which are mostly negligible.

You have to account for the CO2 required to produce refined petrol from crude oil as well as the extraction, I would be interested in sources on this though. My back of the napkin maths based on [1], [2] indicate about 10% more emissions but this includes other petroleum products and doesn't include transportation or evaporative losses.

Average efficient EV - say VW e-Golf. Around 15kWh/100km. 
1kWh on UK electrical grid = ~240gCO2e.  So, 100km = 3.6kg CO2e.  (36gCO2e/km)

Now imagine you are sensible and charge at night, dominated by wind and nuclear in the UK.  CO2 emissions at night are around 40% lower than those figures above.

We didn't account for the additional petrol refinery costs and the EV still comes out about 3x better.

Worst case. 100% coal grid.  Emissions of ~750gCO2e/kWh.  This puts the EV at about 113gCO2e/km.  About 5% worse than the Prius in the worst case assumption.  (But, with no accounting for distribution or refining costs!)

[1] https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-11/documents/refineries_2013_112516.pdf
[2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32532

[tszaboo]

Yes, exactly my point. I'll just wait until Toyota comes up with their PHEV lineup (or EV), probably when the solid-state lithium hits the market. It doesnt make sense to invest into it with the current battery technology. Their resale value will drop by a huge amount, because everyone will go for the new high capacity batteries, that dont turn into a fireball if damaged.

PHEVs are a bit of a dead-end- a major advantage of EVs is that they are mechanically simple, a PHEV is the opposite.

Also Toyota should be shot for their "self-charging hybrid" bullshit which has done a lot of damage to public perception and information - people think a HEV is better than a PHEV because they don't need to plug it in 

Toyota and Lexus is making that ad campaign because they dont have good PHEV cars. The Prius Prime is not a good PHEV. The range is very small, and they just hacked the HEV prius engine to have a little bit more power. The ICE starts with the slightest of acceleration or They have the technology, but they are not going to invest into the regular liquid Li-Ion manufacturing. Solid Li-Ion, changes everything.

I think a PHEV is a good compromise between range and cost. It is an acceptable technology for the upcoming few years. I commute about 15 km per day, and occasionally go a few hundred km.  I would have a charger at work, at home, plug it in every few days.

The regular HEV is a huge improvement over ICE. I have a 3rd gen Prius, it is an ugly car which is extremely reliable, and relaxing to drive. Fuel efficiency is great. And the Atkinson cycle engine is much more efficient than the Otto cycle. So far, that a Prius in Germany makes less pollution than a Tesla (coal power plants). On the other hand I am seriously considering replacing it to a:
BMW 330e
Hyundai Ioniq PHEV
Kia Optima PHEV
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (very very cheap here on the secondhand market)
Probably not the BMW i3, because the REX concept is stupid.

Notice something, there is no Toyota or Lexus on this list. With the plug-in, you can start the air conditioning 20 minutes before leaving, reduce fuel cost to fraction of it, and all you have to do is spend 30 seconds a day plugging in the car. If the Lexus IS or ES would have a plug in version, or even a Toyota Camry or a Corolla, I would go for one in a heartbeat. So yes, in 2019 it is difficult to some parts of the world to justify buying electric car, PHEV is a good compromise, and EVs will take over everything in the recent years.

[boffin]

For me the cost of running an ICE car isn't that much for the amount of use it gets. Assuming recharging is free from my solar (or office building), I'd save maybe $850 a year in petrol costs.
The insurance, registration and servicing costs more, all of which will be the same for an EV. To keep your new car warranty you still need the typical 6 month, 10k or 15k service.

Actually the service intervals are quite a bit longer for an EV, with basically zero replacement parts.  30,000km service interval is common, and the 1st and only replacement part for me is the cabin pollen air filter

[boffin]

Hey EEVBLOGgers, I think we need to get Dave into a Nissan Leaf (or equiv) for at least a longish term testdrive.  Would make some great videos.

All we really need to do is tweet/instagram/facebook nudge Nissan Australia into the right direction

https://www.facebook.com/nissanaustralia
https://twitter.com/Nissan_Aus
https://www.instagram.com/nissanaustralia

[boffin]

Outside the US consumers don't own trucks, because in the few cases where they need to move a lot of stuff they can easily rent a truck. However, people don't take the same attitude to the few cases where they need to make a special trip with people, whether its a long range issue or carrying 7 people. They want their car to do everything they ever do that doesn't involve cargo. The psychology of this is interesting.

I'm outside the US, and the Ford F150 is the most popular (sold) vehicle in the country.  But yes, people are stupid for the most part, overbuying what they need in the delusion that it's worthwhile for "when they need it".  Weirdly even small pickup trucks have gone by the wayside (although I believe Ford are bringing back the Ranger), but no longer can you buy a small 4cyl pickup from any of the Japanese manufacturers.

[f4eru]

Tesla is not representative of "normal" EVs

With a market share of about 50% in the US and more in some EU countries, Tesla is representative of "normal EVs", because it redefines the new normal with the more affordable model 3.

[boffin]

Tesla is not representative of "normal" EVs

With a market share of about 50% in the US and more in some EU countries, Tesla is representative of "normal EVs", because it redefines the new normal with the more affordable model 3.

No no and no.  Tesla as a company have no idea how to do anything except sell a new car, and that will be their downfall as the existing fleet ages.  Tesla are the Apple of the car world; creating a cult-like following, and producing impossible to fix, overpriced vehicles; with almost zero support for anything except new sales.  Check out the Rich Rebuilds series on trying to buy a 'certified pre-owned Tesla" from Tesla; and then tell me you'd still buy a vehicle from them.

As for affordable, the least expensive Model 3 is still C$20k more than a Leaf, eGolf or Ioniq.  There's supposedly a model 3 where the battery is hobbled to 25kWh under software control, that will be a mere 10k more than the competition. <sigh>

[f4eru]

Yeah. A leaf costs less. For that price it cannot do any long range trips, because it's thermally limited to 1 fast charging per day. The M3 has no long term thermal limit, and is a much better vehicle on all accounts.

Check out the Rich Rebuilds series on trying to buy a 'certified pre-owned Tesla" from Tesla; and then tell me you'd still buy a vehicle from them.

Yep. I watched most of Rich's videos before buying my M3.
Sure, their service sucks. It was much better in the past, and it will probably and hopefully settle with time, once they are back to a more manageable growth rate.
It's seriously bad now.
The thing is: you'll nearly never need service, and that is going to be the new normal for other brands of EVs in 2 years.
Renault, Nissan, and other EV makers still charge for regular "inspections" which are not necessary, out of convenience of keeping alive their obsolete service business model. At your cost.

[linux-works]

I work at an electric car company (not tesla) in the bay area.  there are SO many teslas here, its incredible.  every 20th car seems to be a model S or 3.

for me, it might be worth it to buy or lease a tesla.  many companies are now giving free or cheap e-charging at work; that can offset a lot of your cost.

my commute costs are over $250/mo in gasoline.  if I get free charging at work, that's $250/mo that I can put toward something else (like the car lease).

a model 3 lease seems to be about $450/mo for reasonable options, 3 years duration.

$450-$250 = $200/mo

there's a lot I don't love about the model s, but if you've ever driven one, you know how much accel they have.  its a lot of fun!

free charging at work can be a deal-maker.  in the bay area, its a current trend to install fast chargers at workplaces.

[mikeselectricstuff]

Removable REx ? Seeing the powertrain complexity in an ICE, this will not happen.
Why not a removable battery half ? Would be much simpler, as a stop gap solution before good range gets really cheap, which is only a few years away anyway.

EV batteries are too heavy for this to be practical

[f4eru]

Sure, exchanging a heavy REx or exchanging a heavy battery is a bad concept.
However Chinese maker NIO has this exact concept in series production, and it seems useful with currently 130 swap stations, and probably still outsells Tesla in CN
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/08/13/nios-red-hot-es8-is-already-outselling-tesla-in-china/#399ddfb32b8e

Also, it plans to sell to EU soon. If old school EU and US brands don't want to sell good affordable long range EVs, Chinese companies and Tesla will do.

[maginnovision]

Tesla doesn't sell any affordable car for the masses, long range or short.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183713/value-of-us-passenger-cas-sales-and-leases-since-1990/

The average new car transaction price is something like 35K in the US but most people aren't buying new because they aren't affordable.