How long before there is no alternative to electronics made in China?
If I recall, in 1993 a Sumitomo plant caught fire, creating a world wide shortage of IC packaging resins. The plant made half of the entire world's IC package material. Memory chip supply was hit hard and memory prices skyrocketted for about a year as speculators bought up remaining stocks of memory. It should have been a warning to the world not to have all your eggs in one supply chain basket.
If the single source supplier, the so-called People's Republic of China closes down in a few years, the Sumitomo effect will be much worse. When the disenchanted Chinese workers start to organise using technology, it will be the end of the corrupt communist regime but the country will likely collapse back into civil war as power struggles ensue. Capital will flood out of the country. The electronics industry will collapse as the supply chain is destroyed. As their economy falters, unemployment will add fuel to the fire. In fact, the ruling class families (Politburo and Central Committee) are already preparing by smuggling billions of dollars out of China into offshore accounts and buying trophy homes in the West.
The West have put all their red eggs in the Chinese basket. Manufacturing is almost gone from our shores. When turmoil comes, prices will sky-rocket and manufactured goods will be in extremely short supply creating high inflation and economic turmoil. But it will be short lived. The Japanese economy will do well as demand for quality Japanese SMT machines, Japanese manufacturing skills, infrastructure and quality components shifts into overdrive. South Korea and Taiwan will do exceptionally well too as they pull their manufacturing out of China and have a new big demand by new customers for their goods. But countries like Australia might struggle to restore manufacturing because the infrastructure, capital equipment and highly skilled workers are long gone, discarded by politicians who lost the vision of the knowledge nation years ago.
The West might finally learn... don't put all your eggs in the one basket, and you don't get into bed with an enemy you pretend is a friend.
Fortunately, many smart countries will once again proudly reclaim their electronics industry. Prices will be higher, but so will quality. Free countries like Taiwan, Japan and South Korea stand to do exceptionally well long term. Higher prices for electronics is a good thing in many aspects.
I give the Chinese Communist Party to 5 to 10 years life expectancy. If this sounds ridiculous, who'd have thought in 1989 the evil East German communist regime would be crushed by "we the people" in 1990.