Elon Musk is a nice chap

[EEVblog]

Edit3: The "40 acres" also seems to refer to the total grounds area of the facility, not the area enclosed in the biodomes which totals 3.14 acres! Did you actually read this or are you sharing a point you heard from somewhere else?  If so can you give the source you got this info from?
Edit 4: The agricultural part of the experiment was apparently only 0.6 acres! (2500 m^2) according to the Wikipedia article you linked.

Yes I know. I just didn't bother detailing that.
The TLDR is that they had a 40 acre total biosphere and they:
a) Went crazy
b) Could barely feed themslves

Any self sustaining mars base is going to go the same way, much quicker.
And 2500sqm for agriculture is still freaking huge.

[sandalcandal]

Edit3: The "40 acres" also seems to refer to the total grounds area of the facility, not the area enclosed in the biodomes which totals 3.14 acres! Did you actually read this or are you sharing a point you heard from somewhere else?  If so can you give the source you got this info from?
Edit 4: The agricultural part of the experiment was apparently only 0.6 acres! (2500 m^2) according to the Wikipedia article you linked.

Yes I know. I just didn't bother detailing that.
The TLDR is that they had a 40 acre total biosphere and they:
a) Went crazy
b) Could barely feed themslves

Any self sustaining mars base is going to go the same way, much quicker.
And 2500sqm for agriculture is still freaking huge.

Are you sure it's "40 acre total biosphere"? The Wikipedia made it look like only 3.14 acres. Still a lot though. The "craziness" was apparently due to low oxygen cause by curing concrete and soil microbes. Important lessons and things that can be avoided in future attempts.

2500sqm is a 50m*50m square, that's two Olympic swimming pools side by side which seems entirely reasonable to support a hand full of people considering they were just growing on the ground using soil and direct sunlight.


Bruno D.V. Marino et al. "The agricultural biome of Biosphere 2:: Structure, composition and function" 1999 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925857498001001 (image source)
Another earlier paper: Mark Nelson "Biosphere 2 Agriculture: Test Bed for Intensive, Sustainable, Non-Polluting Farming Systems" 1993 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/003072709302200307?journalCode=oaga

I posit it would be much better in terms of a utilitarian system for survival to use hydroponic vertical farming. In my previous research on this forum I found vertical farming has over 12x the yield per m^2 compared to a greenhouse (88x open field).

https://wdrg.aalto.fi/vertical-farming-the-myth-of-resource-efficiency/

I would question the wisdom of the "ecological systems" based approaches used in Biosphere 2 as a whole with regard to an extra terrestrial mission. In my opinion, a more "Factory Farm" approach would be better for survival on ANOTHER FREAKING PLANET.

Edit: There is something to be said however for the freedom from semiconductor devices used in modern high yield vertical farming offered by more "low tech" farming methods.

[EEVblog]

I posit it would be much better in terms of a utilitarian system for survival to use hydroponic vertical farming. In my previous research on this forum I found vertical farming has over 12x the yield per m^2 compared to a greenhouse (88x open field).

That's a given.
Given that the habitat has to be at least taller than human to walk around in, of course you'd go vertical to make use of the volume.

[sandalcandal]

I posit it would be much better in terms of a utilitarian system for survival to use hydroponic vertical farming. In my previous research on this forum I found vertical farming has over 12x the yield per m^2 compared to a greenhouse (88x open field).

That's a given.
Given that the habitat has to be at least taller than human to walk around in, of course you'd go vertical to make use of the volume.

I think it's fair to say that energy and steel alone is NOT enough to make a long term settlement. Definitely water (which could be closed loop cycled) is a necessity too. Though I suspect that original quip was made without the deepest thought.

But really "The worlds largest biodome experiment could barely even feed a handful of people using 40 acres."? The actual space for feeding people was 1.5% of that and it used highly unproductive methods as you've agreed is obvious. Do you not think that's a statement worth retracting?

[Bud]

Psychological problems will be the worst ones to deal with for people leaving in confined space. The referenced biodome experiment is merely about producing calories for consumption and workers still go outside and go home at the end of a day. There is a movie "The Experiment" where ordinary people were put in a prison like environment with some rules they had to follow and it did not take long for big problems to start.

[sandalcandal]

Psychological problems will be the worst ones to deal with for people leaving in confined space. The referenced biodome experiment is merely about producing calories for consumption and workers still go outside and go home at the end of a day. There is a movie "The Experiment" where ordinary people were put in a prison like environment with some rules they had to follow and it did not take long for big problems to start.

I'm sure there has been plenty of collective knowledge and experience gained in dealing with that in the past year by people across society and the world.

Also not sure where you're reading but they did lock people up in Biosphere 2 as part of experiments.

The first closed mission lasted from September 26, 1991 to September 26, 1993. The crew were: medical doctor and researcher Roy Walford, Jane Poynter, Taber MacCallum, Mark Nelson, Sally Silverstone, Abigail Alling, Mark Van Thillo, and Linda Leigh.[16]

The agricultural system produced 83% of the total diet, which included crops of bananas, papayas, sweet potatoes, beets, peanuts, lablab and cowpea beans, rice, and wheat.[17][18] Especially during the first year, the eight inhabitants reported continual hunger. Calculations indicated that Biosphere 2's farm was amongst the highest producing in the world "exceeding by more than five times that of the most efficient agrarian communities of Indonesia, southern China, and Bangladesh."[19]
[...]
The second mission began on March 6, 1994, with an announced run of ten months. The crew was Norberto Alvarez-Romo (Capt.), John Druitt, Matt Finn, Pascale Maslin, Charlotte Godfrey, Rodrigo Romo and Tilak Mahato. The second crew achieved complete sufficiency in food production.[7]

Really do have a bit of questions on the veracity of the research however.

[EEVblog]

Psychological problems will be the worst ones to deal with for people leaving in confined space.

Yet Musk wants to send just anyone 
Although to be fair, he does admit that they may not survive.
Wouldn't surprise me if psychological issues become the biggest problem.

As for the food, I don't know the numbers, but it wouldn't surprise me if they send enough food from earth as the main plan until such time as growing stuff on mars is proven.
And if you implemented cycler ships then that could make food transportation more viable.

Ok, some numbers from here:
https://science.howstuffworks.com/mars-for-a-year.htm?utm_source=howstuffworks&utm_medium=recirc
Average male would need around 200kg of food per year. That's not a lot in the scheme of things. Starship can supposedly transport 100 tons to mars?
So maybe the best and lowest risk approach is to send the food first and have it there waiting. IIRC this was part the Mars Direct plan, you take enough stuff to survivie the journey, and then everything else is already there waiting for you. Expensive Mars bar though.

[SiliconWizard]

Psychological problems will be the worst ones to deal with for people leaving in confined space.

Yet Musk wants to send just anyone 
Although to be fair, he does admit that they may not survive.

As I and others have said earlier, Musk is just very good at marketing communication. All he wants is to get on with his projects. He probably only means one tenth of what he says.

When it comes to space travels, and particularly sending people to Mars, to get the most people on board with this, communication IS key. Anyone with half a brain can figure out that this will cost so much money per capita, and will require heavy training and rigorous selection no matter how sophisticated technology we eventually use, that only an extremely small fraction of the population will be able to be part of it, if it ever happens. But this makes it an essentially elitist project, which can only encounter a lot of resistance if you want to present all this as democratizing space travel. So to make it look more "inclusive", you'll just pretend that anyone will be able to go. That's really basic marketing.

Just my 2 cents. I know some people prefer thinking that Musk is just a delusional nutcase. It's probably more comfortable to think he lies to himself, rather than to the whole world.
Do I fully blame him? What he does is not my thing, but I admit he has achieved a whole lot, even if he hasn't achieved everything that he has ever claimed he would.

Wouldn't surprise me if psychological issues become the biggest problem.

One of the numerous problems probably. The other problem is, no human has ever been subjected to life in non-earth-like conditions for more than a few months (in the ISS), so I'm sure we can also expect a lot of health issues, unless we can reproduce a very earth-like environment elsewhere, which is sort of doubtful. It's likely that if anything, we will barely manage to build environments that are good enough for survival and what would happen after a few years, I guess nobody knows.

[sandalcandal]

Ok, some numbers from here:
https://science.howstuffworks.com/mars-for-a-year.htm?utm_source=howstuffworks&utm_medium=recirc
Average male would need around 200kg of food per year. That's not a lot in the scheme of things. Starship can supposedly transport 100 tons to mars?
So maybe the best and lowest risk approach is to send the food first and have it there waiting. IIRC this was part the Mars Direct plan, you take enough stuff to survivie the journey, and then everything else is already there waiting for you. Expensive Mars bar though.

I was gonna say maybe that number could be reduced by dehydrating the food but they've already thought of that. A bigger problem could be "for a two-year mission, a person would need about 456 gallons (1,726 liters) of water." Water can probably be closed loop cycled but if they can't extract water locally then I wonder how much needs to be supplied on-going to make up for losses.

Also a bit of a gross thought but I wonder if there could be a closed loop system for the "solids". It happens on Earth already but obviously involving a fairly long cycle.

You might have mentioned it before but the likely first "settlements" will be just lots of autonomous robots building up the infrastructure and running experiments to ensure things are setup and safe.

[vk6zgo]

Ok, some numbers from here:
https://science.howstuffworks.com/mars-for-a-year.htm?utm_source=howstuffworks&utm_medium=recirc
Average male would need around 200kg of food per year. That's not a lot in the scheme of things. Starship can supposedly transport 100 tons to mars?
So maybe the best and lowest risk approach is to send the food first and have it there waiting. IIRC this was part the Mars Direct plan, you take enough stuff to survivie the journey, and then everything else is already there waiting for you. Expensive Mars bar though.

I was gonna say maybe that number could be reduced by dehydrating the food but they've already thought of that. A bigger problem could be "for a two-year mission, a person would need about 456 gallons (1,726 liters) of water." Water can probably be closed loop cycled but if they can't extract water locally then I wonder how much needs to be supplied on-going to make up for losses.

Also a bit of a gross thought but I wonder if there could be a closed loop system for the "solids". It happens on Earth already but obviously involving a fairly long cycle.

You might have mentioned it before but the likely first "settlements" will be just lots of autonomous robots building up the infrastructure and running experiments to ensure things are setup and safe.

My old, (biggish, but not enormous) swimming pool contained 67,500 litres of water, so that would do for 39 people for the 2 years.

I haven't worked out the mass of that amount of water, but certainly, the volume would be feasible in a large Interplanetary ship.

Just out of interest, as a kid in Mt Helena, we weren't on the water scheme, our well was brackish, so we relied upon water caught off the roof.
We had a 20,000 gallon tank, a 10,000 gallon one, & a little 500 gallon one.

Just the big one (& it wasn't that huge) would support 43 people for 2 years on your figures.

That said, the 456 gallons must be for a quite water conserving lifestyle.
We didn't throw it around, but just for a family of 6, we still found ourselves carting water by late Summer.

[EEVblog]

One of the numerous problems probably. The other problem is, no human has ever been subjected to life in non-earth-like conditions for more than a few months (in the ISS), so I'm sure we can also expect a lot of health issues, unless we can reproduce a very earth-like environment elsewhere, which is sort of doubtful. It's likely that if anything, we will barely manage to build environments that are good enough for survival and what would happen after a few years, I guess nobody knows.

We need a moon base first. Andy Weir's book Artemis is not fiction.
Joe Average could go on that trip, and moon tourism will be a very real thing. Retirees will spend their kids inheritence to go on the adventure of a lifetime.
We'll learn a ton of stuff that will help with a Mars trip.

[EEVblog]

You might have mentioned it before but the likely first "settlements" will be just lots of autonomous robots building up the infrastructure and running experiments to ensure things are setup and safe.

Yes, I suspect this in the bets way to do it, and it was the backbone of the Mars Direct concept.
You send various stuff first, one of which starts manufacturing water and fuel after it lands. And when you land you already have habitat, power, water, food etc ready.
I'm not sure how viable solar is going to be. Likely it's going to be a small nuclear reactor. At some point I think we have to say screw the dangers of sending nuclear material into space.

[EEVblog]

My old, (biggish, but not enormous) swimming pool contained 67,500 litres of water, so that would do for 39 people for the 2 years.

I'm running on the assumption that we'll be manufacturing water on either the moon or mars. So only water for the trip required.

[coppice]

Biosphere 2 is definitely not very big. I've walked around the outside, and it didn't take very long.

[EEVblog]

Biosphere 2 is definitely not very big. I've walked around the outside, and it didn't take very long.

It's way bigger than any Mars base will be!

[MadScientist]

It was pointed out to me that Musk is actually a Martian , and is simply trying to get home , all makes sense now

He even sent his car ahead of him , clever lad. ( mind you I think the couriers have managed to loose it )

[Jan Audio]

Very smart again, send his car in space.
If they are serious they know debris can block the path.
There is so many debri in space already, china even blown up a sattelite as test.
Thats why they need a moonbase, only i dont trust it,
will the moon stay in balance if we send alot of earth weight on one side of the moon.
I am sure 1 person can ruin the everything for everybody.
We need this guy on mars.

[coppice]

Biosphere 2 is definitely not very big. I've walked around the outside, and it didn't take very long.

It's way bigger than any Mars base will be!

Biosphere 2 functions in a very 3D permaculture kind of way. I think they assumed the occupants would have nothing to do but feed themselves, so they built something to get a lot of nutrition from a small area, at the expense of massive effort needed to manage and harvest from it. If he same thing were done on Mars, the colonists would have no time left for any development work.

[EEVblog]

Biosphere 2 is definitely not very big. I've walked around the outside, and it didn't take very long.

It's way bigger than any Mars base will be!

Biosphere 2 functions in a very 3D permaculture kind of way. I think they assumed the occupants would have nothing to do but feed themselves, so they built something to get a lot of nutrition from a small area, at the expense of massive effort needed to manage and harvest from it. If he same thing were done on Mars, the colonists would have no time left for any develop work.

Yeah, which is why I think early missions will focus on exploration and some basic experiments growing food, not having them try and be self sufficient for food.
Just send a couple of tons of food and vitamins and replenish every year.

[Kjelt]

Humans are just not up to living in space.
Develop and sent autonomous self repairing robots and in the same time develop new intereting technology we all can benefit from.

[BrianHG]

Humans are just not up to living in space.
Develop and sent autonomous self repairing robots and in the same time develop new intereting technology we all can benefit from.

True self repairing robots wont be a reality until they can regenerate their own silicon.
Once a few transistors bur out, what will they do?
Backups spares can only last so long and you are expecting these robots to be a lot more functional than the existing rovers and space craft.

[sandalcandal]

Humans are just not up to living in space.
Develop and sent autonomous self repairing robots and in the same time develop new intereting technology we all can benefit from.

True self repairing robots wont be a reality until they can regenerate their own silicon.
Once a few transistors bur out, what will they do?
Backups spares can only last so long and you are expecting these robots to be a lot more functional than the existing rovers and space craft.

Biggest milestone for "self-sufficiency" on Mars is going to be getting a semiconductor fab up and running using native materials. Once that's done then nearly any human-made thing imaginable with our current day technology on Earth (apart from stuff relying on the natural Earth environment) should be possible.

[BrianHG]

Humans are just not up to living in space.
Develop and sent autonomous self repairing robots and in the same time develop new intereting technology we all can benefit from.

True self repairing robots wont be a reality until they can regenerate their own silicon.
Once a few transistors bur out, what will they do?
Backups spares can only last so long and you are expecting these robots to be a lot more functional than the existing rovers and space craft.

Biggest milestone for "self-sufficiency" on Mars is going to be getting a semiconductor fab up and running using native materials. Once that's done then nearly any human-made thing imaginable with our current day technology on Earth (apart from stuff relying on the natural Earth environment) should be possible.

Don't forget capacitors, resistors and batteries.
Also don't forget the insane huge amount of pure water needed to manufacture ICs as well as metals and plastics.

[EEVblog]

Biggest milestone for "self-sufficiency" on Mars is going to be getting a semiconductor fab up and running using native materials. Once that's done then nearly any human-made thing imaginable with our current day technology on Earth (apart from stuff relying on the natural Earth environment) should be possible.

Fantasy land.

[EEVblog]

Humans are just not up to living in space.
Develop and sent autonomous self repairing robots and in the same time develop new intereting technology we all can benefit from.

True self repairing robots wont be a reality until they can regenerate their own silicon.
Once a few transistors bur out, what will they do?
Backups spares can only last so long and you are expecting these robots to be a lot more functional than the existing rovers and space craft.

Biggest milestone for "self-sufficiency" on Mars is going to be getting a semiconductor fab up and running using native materials. Once that's done then nearly any human-made thing imaginable with our current day technology on Earth (apart from stuff relying on the natural Earth environment) should be possible.

Don't forget capacitors, resistors and batteries.
Also don't forget the insane huge amount of pure water needed to manufacture ICs as well as metals and plastics.

Most people have absolutely no clue about the massive manufacturing and supply chain infrastructure required for even the most basic products we take for granted, let alone the more complicated ones.
Mars would have to be terraformed before we'd even come close to being truly self sufficient there.

Although, that being said, the Nazi's did it on the moon.