Author Topic: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic  (Read 4430 times)

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Offline NiHaoMikeTopic starter

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H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« on: April 29, 2024, 01:38:45 pm »
https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/comments/1cfdykj/opinion_this_may_be_our_last_chance_to_halt_bird/
Quote
Spillovers from animals to humans are common, yet pandemics are rare because they require a chain of unlucky events to happen one after the other. But pandemics are a numbers game, and a widespread animal outbreak like this raises the risks. When dangerous novel pathogens emerge among humans, there is only a small window of time in which to stop them before they spiral out of control. Neither our animal farming practices nor our public health tools seem up to the task.
It's inevitable that factory farming is going to cause another pandemic. If not H5N1, it will be something else later. It adds to the many other health problems related to factory farming as justification to phase it out and replace it with sustainable farming.
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Online Zero999

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2024, 01:59:35 pm »
It's true there will be another pandemic and nothing has been learned from the one just gone, but isn't this a bit too off-topic?
 

Offline magic

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2024, 02:03:01 pm »
Nice reddit drama thread.

You forgot to add that you don't intend to bash the US because China uses industrial farming too and mention something about chipageddon to make it electronics-related ;)
 
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Offline ConKbot

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2024, 02:12:34 pm »
Oh no, even chickens bad now, the only solution to save humanity is to switch to industrially produced protein supplement brick meals! Totally not because it's very very profitable for us to turn any garbage protein, fat, and carb source into kibble for humans.
 

Offline themadhippy

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2024, 02:16:20 pm »
Quote
it will be something else later. It adds to the many other health problems related to factory farming as justification to phase it out and replace it with sustainable farming.
And then mother nature will find another novel way of trying to keep the population of the most destructive  species on the planet under control
 
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Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2024, 03:04:58 pm »
Sustainable farming will only support a sustainable human population.  Which may take a pandemic to achieve.
 

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2024, 04:01:37 pm »
There's no need for a pandemic. Current farming practices are sustainable, because population grow will come to a halt and reverse, within the next few decades. The fact our current economic system relies on population growth is a problem and will eventually collapse, due to a lack of new workers and too many pensioners.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2024, 04:37:37 pm »
https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/comments/1cfdykj/opinion_this_may_be_our_last_chance_to_halt_bird/
Quote
Spillovers from animals to humans are common, yet pandemics are rare because they require a chain of unlucky events to happen one after the other. But pandemics are a numbers game, and a widespread animal outbreak like this raises the risks. When dangerous novel pathogens emerge among humans, there is only a small window of time in which to stop them before they spiral out of control. Neither our animal farming practices nor our public health tools seem up to the task.
It's inevitable that factory farming is going to cause another pandemic. If not H5N1, it will be something else later. It adds to the many other health problems related to factory farming as justification to phase it out and replace it with sustainable farming.
It doesn't work that way. You have to keep in mind that humanity is factory farming humans. The only advantage of factory farming humans is that humans can be vaccinated to higher levels as humans don't need to be consumed. Farm animals bread for consumption are a little more sensitive as their meat ends up in our food chain. Either way, infectious disseases will spread and the only way out is through keeping vaccination levels up to high percentages. Over here in the NL people (mostly young kids) die again of disseases which have not been problematic for decades due to stupid people not trusting vaccines due to spread of false information. Herd immunity is key.

History has shown world-wide pandemics occur about once every 100 years so you are safe.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2024, 04:55:36 pm by nctnico »
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Offline AVGresponding

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2024, 05:21:38 pm »
History has shown world-wide pandemics occur about once every 100 years so you are safe.

That's a risky assumption; because A, always A. Living in the universe is inherently unsafe, probably best not to dwell on it too much, but take sensible precautions (wash your hands before eating, after using public transport etc)
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Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2024, 06:17:50 pm »
History has shown world-wide pandemics occur about once every 100 years so you are safe.

That's a risky assumption; because A, always A. Living in the universe is inherently unsafe, probably best not to dwell on it too much, but take sensible precautions (wash your hands before eating, after using public transport etc)
That is just basic hygiene your parents should have taught you  ;)
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Online coppercone2

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2024, 06:20:39 pm »
too much fried chicken. eat some fucking vegetables people.

another 50 trillion dollars down the drain because you need chicken and bacon three meals a day every day
 
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Offline strawberry

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2024, 06:38:54 pm »
I think, next thing will be communism or human exhaled carbon emissions tax
too much fried chicken. eat some fucking vegetables people.

another 50 trillion dollars down the drain because you need chicken and bacon three meals a day every day
chicken and bacon are fed vegan food so it is vegan food
 
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Online Zero999

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2024, 06:46:58 pm »
It doesn't work that way. You have to keep in mind that humanity is factory farming humans. The only advantage of factory farming humans is that humans can be vaccinated to higher levels as humans don't need to be consumed. Farm animals bread for consumption are a little more sensitive as their meat ends up in our food chain.
Lack of genetic diversity is a problem in animal farming, just as much as overcrowded, unhygienic conditions an poor welfare standards, which reduces the efficacy of the immune system.

Quote
Either way, infectious disseases will spread and the only way out is through keeping vaccination levels up to high percentages. Over here in the NL people (mostly young kids) die again of disseases which have not been problematic for decades due to stupid people not trusting vaccines due to spread of false information. Herd immunity is key.
Herd immunity can only be achieved with viruses which can be controlled with vaccines such as polio myelitis. Good levels of hygiene are also required.

Vaccines are great for preventing the transmission of some pathogens, but poor at controlling respiratory viruses such as influenza and SARS-Cov-2. This is because these viruses mutate rapidly, are highly contagious and the vaccines don't induce mucosal immunity, which is required to prevent transmission and is short-lived anyway. The only thing these vaccines might do is reduce the risk of getting severely ill, although that's not even certain, given the lack of randomised data.

The authorities spreading misinformation, exaggerating the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines and downplaying the risks, as well as trying to force people to have them, have heavily contributed to an increased lack of trust in vaccines. If they were honest about their limitations and didn't push people so hard into taking them, we wouldn't be in this position.

 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2024, 06:56:45 pm »
This has beend debated before. You are right about respiratory viruses mutating a lot (hence the big outbreak every 100 or so years and 'flu' vaccines needing adjustment for every flu season) but you are wrong about good respiratory vaccinations not being effective at all. The main problem is that the general public doesn't understand what kind of level of protection to expect from getting vaccinated due to all the mis-information being spread. The truth is that getting vaccinated for any dissease doesn't mean you won't get sick; just not seriously ill to a near 100% number of cases. The cancer called social media however zooms in on the 0.00000001% getting seriously ill (usually combined with other medical issues which are left out) and claiming the vaccines are not effective at all in order to generate more views and money. Add in some government conspiracies paid for by dubious sources and the chaos is complete.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2024, 06:58:30 pm by nctnico »
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Online Zero999

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #14 on: April 29, 2024, 07:20:01 pm »
This has beend debated before. You are right about respiratory viruses mutating a lot (hence the big outbreak every 100 or so years and 'flu' vaccines needing adjustment for every flu season) but you are wrong about good respiratory vaccinations not being effective at all. The main problem is that the general public doesn't understand what kind of level of protection to expect from getting vaccinated due to all the mis-information being spread. The truth is that getting vaccinated for any dissease doesn't mean you won't get sick; just not seriously ill to a near 100% number of cases. The cancer called social media however zooms in on the 0.00000001% getting seriously ill (usually combined with other medical issues which are left out) and claiming the vaccines are not effective at all in order to generate more views and money. Add in some government conspiracies paid for by dubious sources and the chaos is complete.
Okay, where's the randomised data for seasonal influenza vaccines? I've not seen any. All we have is population wide data which appears to show a reduction in severe disease in vaccinated cohorts, but it could easily by attributed to something else. Correlation doesn't mean causation. There is plenty of evidence of a healthy vaccine bias skewing the data.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26474974/
https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-015-1154-y

The fact that those who have taken vaccines are at lower risk of road fatalities, shows the two groups are not the same, which might explain the disparities in severe disease and death, rather than the vaccines.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9716428/

Until I see randomised data, I will be sceptical, which is the only logical position to take, given throughout the history of medicine, a good number of interventions have been ineffective.

EDIT:
You also failed to address my point that the authorities gave people unrealistic expectations by claiming it protected those around you and pushing it too hard.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2024, 07:38:00 pm by Zero999 »
 
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Offline strawberry

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #15 on: April 29, 2024, 07:52:21 pm »
~10k possible combinations ~50..100 can react with human cell protein
one of them is seasonal flu and mortality rate is low
one in africa everyone forgot and mortality rate was ~80% (they locked down that country immediately and cached that one person in USA)
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Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #16 on: April 29, 2024, 08:18:34 pm »


Until I see randomised data, I will be sceptical, which is the only logical position to take, given throughout the history of medicine, a good number of interventions have been ineffective.


You got it right.  There are all sorts of "studies" but I have not seen any good stuff about truly unbiased studies with proper control groups.   There have been "vaccines" that have made the outcome of the disease worse.   

Herd Immunity has been touted.   It is not as simple as vaccinating.  The premise of Herd Immunity is that almost all of the Herd is immune to the point that they do not even "catch" or carry the pathogen.  So they cannot transmit it to anyone else in the Herd.  Many Vaccines do not offer this level of Immunity.   
The comments about Herd Immunity in the press are badly informed. Or "MisInformation"
I will be quite skeptical also until I see believable data in proper studies.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #17 on: April 29, 2024, 08:27:18 pm »
You also failed to address my point that the authorities gave people unrealistic expectations by claiming it protected those around you and pushing it too hard.
I didn't. It is just governments pushing back against mis-information in order to make people do the smart thing after all. You can try to find all kinds of government conspiracy theories behind it but in the end the general public is not informed enough to make the right decission so tell them something that makes them do the right thing anyway.

It is like telling a random person about a great electronics shop you have found and start verbally listing all the interesting items you've seen. 999 out of 1000 persons will tune out after 2 lines; all that is interesting to most is that you found it a great place to be so stick to that part of the story if you want to keep the other party interested in anything you have to say. Sometimes you have to dumb things down to get a message across to most people while some will claim the information is incomplete. You can't have it both ways.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2024, 08:38:46 pm by nctnico »
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Online jonpaul

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #18 on: April 29, 2024, 08:44:20 pm »
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« Last Edit: April 30, 2024, 06:00:51 pm by Simon »
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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #19 on: April 29, 2024, 08:51:34 pm »
You also failed to address my point that the authorities gave people unrealistic expectations by claiming it protected those around you and pushing it too hard.
I didn't. It is just governments pushing back against mis-information in order to make people do the smart thing after all. You can try to find all kinds of government conspiracy theories behind it but in the end the general public is not informed enough to make the right decission so tell them something that makes them do the right thing anyway.
Rubbish. We were told to get vaccinated to protect others which was a lie. Our government even mandated it for care home workers and they were going to also mandate it for all frontline NHS staff. Fortunately they realised it didn't prevent transmission and cancelled mandates. The authorities have pushed far more misinformation, than crackpots on the internet.

I prefer to stick to the hard evidence. I'll believe it when I see proper, randomised data to show it works.

It's nothing to to with being anti-vaccine. The eradication of smallpox proves vaccines do work and I would like to see polio eradicated too. The problem is, the authorities are seriously damaging their credibility by pushing vaccines with weak evidence and making false claims.

Quote
It is like telling a random person about a great electronics shop you have found and start verbally listing all the interesting items you've seen. 999 out of 1000 persons will tune out after 2 lines; all that is interesting to most is that you found it a great place to be so stick to that part of the story if you want to keep the other party interested in anything you have to say
What a silly analogy. Most people can understand the difference between getting a cold and pneumonia. :palm:
 
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Offline RJSV

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #20 on: April 29, 2024, 09:04:38 pm »
   I see and read the facts debated immediately, here.   Similar to other venues or blogs.
About every time, there can be a quick SKIP;...mention of a 'MISINFORMATION' dynamic 'OUT THERE', very brief and then on with the, uh, FACTS, as you see them.
   No disrespect intended, to those making points here, but this is equivalent of, borrowing a legal phrase;  factual and intellectual equivalent to a 'Court Mistrial, declared by a judge'...that is, the verbal or written exchanges are so riddled with stubborn and partisan phrases and cliches as render the whole pile as 'unresolvable'!   (Sorry)

   Sorry, no definitive 'facts' stated.
   Sorry, 'Fake News' is not a definitive declaration...just the opposite.

And in the U.S. now, we don't even enjoy the luxury of an 'honest' departure from an airplane or helicopter...all staged complete with 'fake' luggage hauled around, supposedly to block views of stumbles......
 

Online SiliconWizard

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #21 on: April 29, 2024, 09:11:14 pm »
There's no need for a pandemic. Current farming practices are sustainable, because population grow will come to a halt and reverse, within the next few decades. The fact our current economic system relies on population growth is a problem and will eventually collapse, due to a lack of new workers and too many pensioners.

Yes, it will just adjust itself whether we like it or not.
 

Offline TimFox

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #22 on: April 29, 2024, 10:44:22 pm »
Meanwhile, dengue fever is getting out of hand in South America and the range of the Aedes mosquito is extending in North America due to climate change.
There’s lots of stuff to worry about.
 

Offline NiHaoMikeTopic starter

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #23 on: April 29, 2024, 11:03:07 pm »
Nice reddit drama thread.

You forgot to add that you don't intend to bash the US because China uses industrial farming too and mention something about chipageddon to make it electronics-related ;)
I'm against factory farming worldwide.
Oh no, even chickens bad now, the only solution to save humanity is to switch to industrially produced protein supplement brick meals! Totally not because it's very very profitable for us to turn any garbage protein, fat, and carb source into kibble for humans.
There's already lots of that readily available at pretty much every grocery store (except perhaps a few "truly healthy" ones) as well as lots of shops specializing in it, with a mix of all sorts of chemicals to get the average consumer to buy it. It is, however, a separate although very closely related problem.

The solution to both is a sustainable diet.
Sustainable farming will only support a sustainable human population.  Which may take a pandemic to achieve.
Factory farming uses so much land (if everything is properly counted) that even "conventional" farming would be much more sustainable.
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Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #24 on: April 30, 2024, 02:49:50 am »

Sustainable farming will only support a sustainable human population.  Which may take a pandemic to achieve.
Factory farming uses so much land (if everything is properly counted) that even "conventional" farming would be much more sustainable.

Traditional farming is sustainable.  But look at food yield per acre on various types of land using this type of agriculture (there is only a little of the very good stuff, lots of OK stuff and huge amounts of very marginal land.  Be sure to make sure that water sources are sustainable.  Then see what population it will support.  Even if we go all vegetarian.  Be sure to use solid sources for the calculations.  The posts of meat eaters and vegetarians both wildly miscount the real needs to support their preferred diet. 
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #25 on: April 30, 2024, 06:00:09 am »
You also failed to address my point that the authorities gave people unrealistic expectations by claiming it protected those around you and pushing it too hard.
I didn't. It is just governments pushing back against mis-information in order to make people do the smart thing after all. You can try to find all kinds of government conspiracy theories behind it but in the end the general public is not informed enough to make the right decission so tell them something that makes them do the right thing anyway.
Rubbish. We were told to get vaccinated to protect others which was a lie. Our government even mandated it for care home workers and they were going to also mandate it for all frontline NHS staff. Fortunately they realised it didn't prevent transmission and cancelled mandates. The authorities have pushed far more misinformation, than crackpots on the internet.

I prefer to stick to the hard evidence. I'll believe it when I see proper, randomised data to show it works.

It's nothing to to with being anti-vaccine. The eradication of smallpox proves vaccines do work and I would like to see polio eradicated too. The problem is, the authorities are seriously damaging their credibility by pushing vaccines with weak evidence and making false claims.
Sorry, but you are having exactly the unrealistic expectations I was writing about. As you wrote before respiratory virusses mutate quickly. Therefore these virusses can not be erradicated like measles, polio, smallpox, etc. So expecting vaccines to erradicate respiratory virusses is not going to happen and nobody ever promised that (if you listen/read carefully). However, vaccines against respiratory virusses do help to prevent people from getting very ill, which in turn reduces the amount of virus particles infected people spread which then leads to slowing down the spread of respiratory virusses (with a better chance of keeping the reproduction rate below 1). So in short: vaccines which target respiratory virusses do help to slow down spreading and are preventing people from becoming seriously ill. In what way is that bad or even a lie?
« Last Edit: April 30, 2024, 06:19:07 am by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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Online Zero999

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #26 on: April 30, 2024, 07:35:10 am »
   I see and read the facts debated immediately, here.   Similar to other venues or blogs.
About every time, there can be a quick SKIP;...mention of a 'MISINFORMATION' dynamic 'OUT THERE', very brief and then on with the, uh, FACTS, as you see them.
   No disrespect intended, to those making points here, but this is equivalent of, borrowing a legal phrase;  factual and intellectual equivalent to a 'Court Mistrial, declared by a judge'...that is, the verbal or written exchanges are so riddled with stubborn and partisan phrases and cliches as render the whole pile as 'unresolvable'!   (Sorry)

   Sorry, no definitive 'facts' stated.
   Sorry, 'Fake News' is not a definitive declaration...just the opposite.

And in the U.S. now, we don't even enjoy the luxury of an 'honest' departure from an airplane or helicopter...all staged complete with 'fake' luggage hauled around, supposedly to block views of stumbles......
I'm not sure what you mean.

I'll clarify my position. There isn't hard data so suggest that they're completely ineffective against preventing severe disease. The problem is there isn't strong evidence of efficacy either.

Public health measures need to have strong evidence behind them otherwise, at best the resources can be better spent elsewhere, at worst they're harmful.

You also failed to address my point that the authorities gave people unrealistic expectations by claiming it protected those around you and pushing it too hard.
I didn't. It is just governments pushing back against mis-information in order to make people do the smart thing after all. You can try to find all kinds of government conspiracy theories behind it but in the end the general public is not informed enough to make the right decission so tell them something that makes them do the right thing anyway.
Rubbish. We were told to get vaccinated to protect others which was a lie. Our government even mandated it for care home workers and they were going to also mandate it for all frontline NHS staff. Fortunately they realised it didn't prevent transmission and cancelled mandates. The authorities have pushed far more misinformation, than crackpots on the internet.

I prefer to stick to the hard evidence. I'll believe it when I see proper, randomised data to show it works.

It's nothing to to with being anti-vaccine. The eradication of smallpox proves vaccines do work and I would like to see polio eradicated too. The problem is, the authorities are seriously damaging their credibility by pushing vaccines with weak evidence and making false claims.
Sorry, but you are having exactly the unrealistic expectations I was writing about. As you wrote before respiratory virusses mutate quickly. Therefore these virusses can not be erradicated like measles, polio, smallpox, etc. So expecting vaccines to erradicate respiratory virusses is not going to happen and nobody ever promised that (if you listen/read carefully).
Lots of people had unrealistic expectations, including doctors. The fact we were told that we had to get it to protect others, implies it stops the spread. If they just said, get it to save yourself getting very sick, but we don't believe it stops you getting a cold-like illness, which can be spread to to others, then people would have understood.

Then there's all the other misinformation exaggerating the efficacy of masks, keeping 2m apart etc. which lacked rigorous evidence to support and the authoritarian policies copied from Communist China. It appears as though the public health authorities did their level best to destroy their reputation.

Quote
However, vaccines against respiratory virusses do help to prevent people from getting very ill, which in turn reduces the amount of virus particles infected people spread which then leads to slowing down the spread of respiratory virusses (with a better chance of keeping the reproduction rate below 1). So in short: vaccines which target respiratory virusses do help to slow down spreading and are preventing people from becoming seriously ill. In what way is that bad or even a lie?
But there simply isn't hard evidence to support that.  The influenza vaccines based are a prediction on what might be circulating the coming season and the SAR-Cov-2 boosters are always for a variant which was circulating six or so months ago and is given to people who have already been exposed to a very similar virus, numerous times.

In addition to the above, there's data to suggest, the risk of myocarditis from some doses of the vaccines in certain demographics, males under 40, than SAR-Cov-2 infection. No wonder most countries have stopped giving it to younger people.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1.full.pdf

There's even some data from the CDC which suggests it doesn't protect against hospitalisation, in those who've been previously diagnosed with SARS-Cov-2. Yes, it's not randomised data, so the same arguments can be made against it, as those which show the opposite, from population wide data.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#F1_down
 

Offline Simon

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #27 on: April 30, 2024, 06:16:38 pm »

Then there's all the other misinformation exaggerating the efficacy of masks, keeping 2m apart etc. which lacked rigorous evidence to support and the authoritarian policies copied from Communist China. It appears as though the public health authorities did their level best to destroy their reputation.

And what proof is there that distancing does not work? We all got covid in the office one after the other until we were all working from home as best we could. The we returned. But one colleague was clearly not well. I don't know if it was covid or something else. We sat on the same stretch of desk but with another smaller desk in the middle that we used for electronics prototyping we were at least 3m apart. And for a couple of weeks I was fine while he coughed and spluttered. Until that once that I went over to his desk to help him and he was coughing all over the place. Then I too was unwell in a similar way. Hey it's not a scientific study but I'll pitch it against anyone just saying that distancing does not work. I mean it was a 2-3 week study....

As for masks as I have tried to explain over and over they will catch and slow down stuff being ejected from your mouth so that is does not travel as far. It's called physics, take a pipe with fluid flowing through it, now put an obstruction over it, does the fluid slow down? Last time I checked physics, it does.
 
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Offline Simon

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #28 on: April 30, 2024, 06:25:05 pm »
Quote

What a silly analogy. Most people can understand the difference between getting a cold and pneumonia. :palm:

really? like everyone that called covid just another flu even after it had killed many? Like everyone messed up, top to bottom. People just did not want to accept the massive change that was coming. Remember I said in January that we should stop inter country travel? nope, people were still going on holiday in April after the UK had it's first cases due a person who only fell mildly ill after infecting others that fared worse. And still we travelled abroad. I am afraid that human stupidity is unlimited, and that is what truly scare the fucking shit out of me.
 

Offline DavidAlfa

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #29 on: April 30, 2024, 06:40:20 pm »
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Online soldar

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #30 on: April 30, 2024, 07:10:14 pm »
This has beend debated before. You are right about respiratory viruses mutating a lot (hence the big outbreak every 100 or so years and 'flu' vaccines needing adjustment for every flu season) but you are wrong about good respiratory vaccinations not being effective at all. The main problem is that the general public doesn't understand what kind of level of protection to expect from getting vaccinated due to all the mis-information being spread. The truth is that getting vaccinated for any dissease doesn't mean you won't get sick; just not seriously ill to a near 100% number of cases. The cancer called social media however zooms in on the 0.00000001% getting seriously ill (usually combined with other medical issues which are left out) and claiming the vaccines are not effective at all in order to generate more views and money. Add in some government conspiracies paid for by dubious sources and the chaos is complete.
I have to agree with this.

I am not going to intervene because there are certain topics I avoid because they are like religion. You cannot reason.

But I have my own data to contribute. I was recently traveling in France and took a flight back from Paris to Madrid with a low cost airline I had never heard of before, Transavia, motto: we unite French rudeness with Spanish inefficiency!

There was a woman a couple seats over coughing a lot. I joked with my wife that she was going to give us all the Covid.  Well, I do not know if it was her but a few days later, bam!, I get a terrible flu and I am bed-ridden with high fever for three days and the test confirms it is Covid. Today is the second day I am up and about the house. Still coughing and runny nose but the terrible pain all over the body is mostly gone. And I can't smell the coffee!

It is ironic that I did not get it until now. I have taken all the vaccines and I suppose that might have helped with the fight. I am still weak and I expect to be locked up at home for the rest of the week.

Maybe I should have complained to the airline about the coughing woman.   Too late though.
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Offline RJSV

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #31 on: April 30, 2024, 07:19:35 pm »
   Part of my point, last time, was that declarations of this person or that, is issuing fake misinformation is, in itself, a FAULTY COMMUNICATION...A simplified off-hand dismissal, that many people have been trained to nod the head, in agreement, that a person, or organization is 'issuung fake unfo', and
"Trust ME, not that liar that just spoke.".

   That's a FAULTY and trendy way to argue.

   At any rate, that's one of the two dynamics here.   The other thing didn't get picked up, and that is that this discussion must, of sorts, include the fact that this is a highly volatile US Election year, and here we go, ANOTHER useful screen, to hide all kinds of sneaks.
Oh, and now I'll indulge in my own faulty argument:
   Please PROVE that the 2020 pandemic wasn't 'useful', during the 2020 election cycle.
   That was faulty, asking to prove a negative.
(Sorry folks, if my writing style isn't easy to read, I've found that clear writing is a needed skill).
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #32 on: April 30, 2024, 07:24:17 pm »
This has beend debated before. You are right about respiratory viruses mutating a lot (hence the big outbreak every 100 or so years and 'flu' vaccines needing adjustment for every flu season) but you are wrong about good respiratory vaccinations not being effective at all. The main problem is that the general public doesn't understand what kind of level of protection to expect from getting vaccinated due to all the mis-information being spread. The truth is that getting vaccinated for any dissease doesn't mean you won't get sick; just not seriously ill to a near 100% number of cases. The cancer called social media however zooms in on the 0.00000001% getting seriously ill (usually combined with other medical issues which are left out) and claiming the vaccines are not effective at all in order to generate more views and money. Add in some government conspiracies paid for by dubious sources and the chaos is complete.
I have to agree with this.

I am not going to intervene because there are certain topics I avoid because they are like religion. You cannot reason.

But I have my own data to contribute. I was recently traveling in France and took a flight back from Paris to Madrid with a low cost airline I had never heard of before, Transavia, motto: we unite French rudeness with Spanish inefficiency!

There was a woman a couple seats over coughing a lot. I joked with my wife that she was going to give us all the Covid.  Well, I do not know if it was her but a few days later, bam!, I get a terrible flu and I am bed-ridden with high fever for three days and the test confirms it is Covid. Today is the second day I am up and about the house. Still coughing and runny nose but the terrible pain all over the body is mostly gone. And I can't smell the coffee!

It is ironic that I did not get it until now. I have taken all the vaccines and I suppose that might have helped with the fight. I am still weak and I expect to be locked up at home for the rest of the week.

Maybe I should have complained to the airline about the coughing woman.   Too late though.
The vaccines don't stop you from getting Covid entirely. Just prepare your immune system so you get less sick. Last time I had Covid was about 2 years ago but I only got mildly ill. I've read quite a lot about the flu-like virusses and how the immune system deals with these kind of virusses. It turns out that because they mutate so rapidly, the human immune system doesn't bother to remember all of them. So the protection wears off over the years. You'd need to get a repeat vaccination which targets the currently know variants to increase your protection. This is also the reason that 'flu shots' are changed each year based on the variants going around. If they get the mix wrong (different variants), then the shots are less effective. Where it comes to the group of virusses commonly addressed as flu, the immune system needs constant training and isolating yourself is actually a bad thing unless there is a variant out there (like Covid) which is more harmfull than normal.

BTW: Transavia is owned by Air France - KLM. I typically avoid the low budget airlines. Add Etihad to the list as well; you can end up on a long flight in a Spanish airplane which is made for short trips in Europe at the other end of the world.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2024, 07:29:10 pm by nctnico »
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Online soldar

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #33 on: April 30, 2024, 08:05:25 pm »
The vaccines don't stop you from getting Covid entirely. Just prepare your immune system so you get less sick.
Yes, I am aware of the mechanism of vaccines.

I was vaccinated last time a bit less than three months ago, in January. If Covid hit me so hard in spite of the vaccine I suppose it could have killed me if I had not been vaccinated. Although you never really know. Everybody is different.
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Offline Gyro

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #34 on: April 30, 2024, 08:13:17 pm »
My wife and I had really bad bouts of Covid back in February. We weren't well enough the to leave the house for over two weeks and still suffer some fatigue. This was the first time we could conclusively say that we'd had proper Covid, previous infections must have been very mild. I'm grateful that we were both fully up to date with our vaccinations, I hate to think what could have happened otherwise. It's not just that everybody is different, multiple infections in the same person can be very different too.
Best Regards, Chris
 

Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #35 on: April 30, 2024, 09:11:00 pm »
Nothing has changed since the thread on masks was terminated by moderators.   
Even the moderators have little idea of what they are discussing.   
The Public Health statements and commentary I have heard in the last few years have not made authorities more believable.   
They even referred to Modified RNA as mRNA (mRNA was previously known as messenger RNA for over 50 years) Which added to the confusion,   

As someone who has supervised the Respiratory Protection Programs for probably thousands of workers. I am baffled at the paths the so called Experts took us on.   

I do not know who to believe at this point and people should not assume they "know"   

As for "Bird Flu", human influenza starts with poultry as far as we know and every year there is a new Flu. Some worse than others.   
It is a guessing game which type will circulate.  History shows us there will be a Flu every year.   
They try to guess what Flu will affect the human population by monitoring poultry. Then make up the appropriate "vaccine".     
Please note that the H and N typing is only partial identification of the virus and has been used for a very long time. It does not totally identify the virus, nor quantify its severity entirely.
COVID is a bit different and the origins of this particular virus are quite the debate, we may never know it's origin.  This does little to make me confident in the "Experts".
 
Again "Who To Believe???"
 
« Last Edit: April 30, 2024, 09:12:59 pm by Wallace Gasiewicz »
 
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Offline RJSV

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #36 on: April 30, 2024, 10:36:27 pm »
   Wallace, you are right;  the whole pile of stuff under discussion is off the rails, to the point that we might as well start shouting the statements.
    'Subtle' shifts, like;   "...We almost died, this time.."..(Paraphrasing):  " think how bad, WITHOUT vaccination, it would have been."
   Shiiit, what do I do with that?   At least I can remember; That's not anything Fauchi said, early on.   He was pretty clear.
Fauchi, by the way, went on to Write Two Books about himself, then complained he was too exposed by the press following him around.

   The whole thing (here) similar to religion debates, as noted.
Bankrupt, or mortally permiated with rumours and accusations of lying, i.e. 'pushing MISINFORMATION'.
   Interesting employment of language though.  The whole usage of accusations of mis-information and 'fake News' substituting for just saying 'they pushing lies' is curious.  Ditto for the use of the phrase 'personal attacks' as new term for 'asking unfair questions' or issuing ANY criticism, really.

Try say this three times:
   "Vaccine saved me from getting COVID, all three times I caught it"

And, 'Proper covid'....what the hell is that ?  Not just casual COVID ?   What, no test done, there ?
Interacting with coughing stranger, but no mention of wearing mask ?  Sloppy work debating.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #37 on: May 01, 2024, 06:22:33 am »
Nothing has changed since the thread on masks was terminated by moderators.   
Even the moderators have little idea of what they are discussing.   
The Public Health statements and commentary I have heard in the last few years have not made authorities more believable.   
They even referred to Modified RNA as mRNA (mRNA was previously known as messenger RNA for over 50 years) Which added to the confusion,   

As someone who has supervised the Respiratory Protection Programs for probably thousands of workers. I am baffled at the paths the so called Experts took us on.   
If you are saying using face masks makes very little sense, then I'd agree with you where it comes to the advice of wearing masks during Covid. Like any personal protection measure, using face masks properly takes care and some training on how to use it effectively. The general public doesn't have that knowledge & training though. So technically having to wear masks is not so effective to reduce spread of a virus.

However, you can't just look at the technical aspects where it comes to a pandemic. You have to look at the sociological side as well. The general public wants an answer and wants to take some action to protect themselves. This is where the surgical face masks come in. Even though these are intended to limit outgoing particles and do little against incoming, having people wear them makes them feel safe. You should not underestimate the effect of that from a social perspective. It is better than suggesting people to inject themselves with toilet cleaner like Trump did.

Using the surgical fase masks is also amplified by some Asian countries where they had the SARS outbreak many years ago. I just got back from Taiwan and there is a significant number of people (mostly elderly) wearing surgical face masks in public. Is it useful? Not so much. Does it make them feel better? Yes.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2024, 06:29:52 am by nctnico »
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Online SiliconWizard

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #38 on: May 01, 2024, 08:11:53 am »
The near future of this thread looks pretty obvious. :horse:
 
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Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #39 on: May 01, 2024, 11:01:13 am »
So the sociological implications are more important than the reality?   Someone has to look at the technical aspects, if we don't do that we are functioning as an Unscientific,"Magically" based society.

Did anyone consider the "sociological" aspect of wearing masks as far as communication?     

Did anyone consider the sociological implications of cancelling school and making children go on line for classes even though they were not at risk???
Did anyone consider the sociological repercussions of criminals hiding their identity????   (They still are)

 Did anyone consider the sociological repercussions of needless beratement and physical assault on people who did not "Believe" in the effectiveness of masks?

Did anyone consider the sociological result of lying to the public???  (maybe)
Did Trump actually say to inject yourself with Bleach or Toilet Cleaner???   He did not.  Your comment here is politically based. 

I regret that you have been successfully indoctrinated to believe things that are not truthful at all.   

By the way, I have a Talisman made from Ancient Artifacts from Warehouse 13  that will protect you.  Maybe not, but it will make you fell better.   

I recently had measured a voltage on a piece of test equipment, it was way out of spec, so I adjusted my volt meter to make it appear in spec,  made me feel a lot better.


However, you can't just look at the technical aspects where it comes to a pandemic. You have to look at the sociological side as well. The general public wants an answer and wants to take some action to protect themselves. This is where the surgical face masks come in. Even though these are intended to limit outgoing particles and do little against incoming, having people wear them makes them feel safe. You should not underestimate the effect of that from a social perspective. It is better than suggesting people to inject themselves with toilet cleaner like Trump did.

Using the surgical fase masks is also amplified by some Asian countries where they had the SARS outbreak many years ago. I just got back from Taiwan and there is a significant number of people (mostly elderly) wearing surgical face masks in public. Is it useful? Not so much. Does it make them feel better? Yes.



 

Offline NiHaoMikeTopic starter

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #40 on: May 01, 2024, 01:38:17 pm »
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/bird-flu-spreading-milk-cows-rcna148803
Quote
Dr. Barb Petersen, a dairy veterinarian in Amarillo who’d been caring for cows sick with the H5N1 strain of the bird flu in March, told NBC News that at the same time, multiple dairy workers, and not just those who’d come in contact with sick cows, got sick.

Peterson said, “People had some classic flu-like symptoms, including high fever, sweating at night, chills, lower back pain.” In addition to symptoms such as vomiting and diarrhea, Petersen said, “they also tended to have pretty severe conjunctivitis and swelling of their eyelids.” Despite these symptoms, those workers weren’t tested for H5N1.

Those reported ailments, a worker’s testing positive for bird flu infection and the more recent discovery of virus fragments in pasteurized milk being sold to consumers should together serve as our wake-up call that bird flu is evolving. Consumers and government agencies should be just as concerned as virologists are.
The 2009 H1N1 swine flu should have been a call to phase out factory farming. Now we're potentially dealing with a much worse virus and not enough time to smoothly transition to sustainable farming.
Quote
In the absence of fundamental changes to agriculture, if we continue to subsidize factory farms that raise billions of animals in disease-ridden conditions and animals and workers alike get sick, we could be sowing the seeds of calamity.
Indeed, factory farms are pretty much the ideal way to spread disease.
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Offline Gyro

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #41 on: May 01, 2024, 05:24:17 pm »
...
Did anyone consider the sociological result of lying to the public???  (maybe)
Did Trump actually say to inject yourself with Bleach or Toilet Cleaner???   He did not.  Your comment here is politically based. 

I regret that you have been successfully indoctrinated to believe things that are not truthful at all.
...


However, you can't just look at the technical aspects where it comes to a pandemic. You have to look at the sociological side as well. The general public wants an answer and wants to take some action to protect themselves. This is where the surgical face masks come in. Even though these are intended to limit outgoing particles and do little against incoming, having people wear them makes them feel safe. You should not underestimate the effect of that from a social perspective. It is better than suggesting people to inject themselves with toilet cleaner like Trump did.
...

Just for clarification, the video record of what he actually said... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177
Best Regards, Chris
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #42 on: May 01, 2024, 05:40:11 pm »
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/bird-flu-spreading-milk-cows-rcna148803
Quote
Dr. Barb Petersen, a dairy veterinarian in Amarillo who’d been caring for cows sick with the H5N1 strain of the bird flu in March, told NBC News that at the same time, multiple dairy workers, and not just those who’d come in contact with sick cows, got sick.

Peterson said, “People had some classic flu-like symptoms, including high fever, sweating at night, chills, lower back pain.” In addition to symptoms such as vomiting and diarrhea, Petersen said, “they also tended to have pretty severe conjunctivitis and swelling of their eyelids.” Despite these symptoms, those workers weren’t tested for H5N1.

Those reported ailments, a worker’s testing positive for bird flu infection and the more recent discovery of virus fragments in pasteurized milk being sold to consumers should together serve as our wake-up call that bird flu is evolving. Consumers and government agencies should be just as concerned as virologists are.
The 2009 H1N1 swine flu should have been a call to phase out factory farming. Now we're potentially dealing with a much worse virus and not enough time to smoothly transition to sustainable farming.
Quote
In the absence of fundamental changes to agriculture, if we continue to subsidize factory farms that raise billions of animals in disease-ridden conditions and animals and workers alike get sick, we could be sowing the seeds of calamity.
Indeed, factory farms are pretty much the ideal way to spread disease.
You keep repeating this but again fail to see that people are living in similar crowded conditions. Think about schools, public transport, offices, sport clubs, shopping malls, airports, airplanes, etc, etc. At least factory farmed animals stay mostly in one place.

Also take note that the article you linked to is an opinion piece. Opinion pieces are best to be ignored because they are written by people pushing a one-sided agenda and are likely paid to spread a certain message which has no scientific and/or factual merit. In other words: Do not expect to receive any scientifically valid and / or factually correct information from opinion pieces.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2024, 05:41:49 pm by nctnico »
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Offline RJSV

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #43 on: May 01, 2024, 06:29:56 pm »
   ACTUALLY;  No, that wasn't a 'BBC VIDEO' that was a written summary by editorial board.
   So, to 'clarify' that clarification; NO, that's not correct, although the words of Former President Trump were to the effect of a casual questioning suggestion, that being an idea tossed out there, to doctor:
   "Please check if something SIMILAR to direct injection might work, as direct injection knocks down things effectively". (Paraphrased by myself here).
    More election season 2024 crapola.
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #44 on: May 01, 2024, 06:33:37 pm »
Someone has to look at the technical aspects, if we don't do that we are functioning as an Unscientific,"Magically" based society.
Do I need to point out the majority of the people on this planet are religious and are believing in some kind of magical higher power?
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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #45 on: May 01, 2024, 07:17:31 pm »
   ACTUALLY;  No, that wasn't a 'BBC VIDEO' that was a written summary by editorial board.
   So, to 'clarify' that clarification; NO, that's not correct, although the words of Former President Trump were to the effect of a casual questioning suggestion, that being an idea tossed out there, to doctor:
   "Please check if something SIMILAR to direct injection might work, as direct injection knocks down things effectively". (Paraphrased by myself here).
    More election season 2024 crapola.

He might as well have said "Please check if something SIMILAR to shooting the people might work, as shooting people kills living things, even small microscopic things effectively"
(paraphrasing here similarly)

Keeping aside the semantics of the idea, the language and all.. which sane person who has ever used bleach would ever think it is a good suggestion to inject it directly into people?
Let alone the head of state of one of the powerful countries in the world.. especially when his words would carry a lot of weight among people... more so among zealots ?
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and we are this stupid
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Offline RJSV

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #46 on: May 01, 2024, 07:36:33 pm »
   'Zealots'...I'll accept a traditionally used term like that.  At least it's not the language butchered and tortuous twist of words usually seen lately, (like the 'misinformation' smears  employed lately).
   How about, instead further twisting the non-video words, of Former President Trump, (i.e. now he seems to have spoken about GUNS), maybe someone can, in actuality, produce that supposed video.   Next thing you will be concluding the talk was about 'shooting missles' into the body.

   One thing about this election year season;  the propaganda slingers have managed to teach the general public, to do their work, smears and mis-statements.   Old school propaganda was usually a special niche, media experts and all.
 

Online krish2487

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #47 on: May 01, 2024, 07:43:52 pm »
   'Zealots'...I'll accept a traditionally used term like that.  At least it's not the language butchered and tortuous twist of words usually seen lately, (like the 'misinformation' smears  employed lately).
   How about, instead further twisting the non-video words, of Former President Trump, (i.e. now he seems to have spoken about GUNS), maybe someone can, in actuality, produce that supposed video.   Next thing you will be concluding the talk was about 'shooting missles' into the body.

   One thing about this election year season;  the propaganda slingers have managed to teach the general public, to do their work, smears and mis-statements.   Old school propaganda was usually a special niche, media experts and all.

I have no skin in the game, so to speak.. and I do admit I find it amusing to watch american politics and how much of a big deal it is..

However, my point was to shine light on the fact that while he might not have explicitly ordered injecting bleach.. they were explictly implying it.. that is a dangerous situation for a head of state to be caught in..
Again, I was not implying that he suggested shooting... merely pointing out that for all intents and purposes, he might have made the statement to ellicit the same outrage..
If god made us in his image,
and we are this stupid
then....
 

Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #48 on: May 01, 2024, 08:01:25 pm »
OK, back to the original point, which I think indicates that large clusters of animals are a health risk.   

I think so.   Here is one example.

The current hypothesis of the likely origin of the 1918 really bad influenza is this:   

The flu started because stockyards in Kansas were in the flight path of Geese. Lots of pigs. The goose droppings contained the virus and the virus was passed to the animals and then to humans.    As we have said, Flu mutates rapidly and the hypothesis is that it mutated in this process of going from geese to farm animals to humans,   
As close as they can find, the first outbreak was at an nearby Army Camp. I like this article:   
 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC340389/

Now this is not really absolutely provable, but a lot of folks believe it is the best rational explanation of all sorts of incomplete data that we can hobble together.  I think this hypothesis is rational.
Notice I said "Hypothesis" not even "Theory".     

(There are a lot of other ideas about where the virus started.)     

Currently we believe the Flu virus strain starts in poultry.  We believe that the Flu that passes through swine is most dangerous.    So, I do believe that large concentration of animals are a health risk.

Now. I do not know what exactly should be done about it. Some poultry farming is done in isolated buildings with pretty strict hygiene. I think this is a good idea.
 
 
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Offline RJSV

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #49 on: May 01, 2024, 08:20:14 pm »
   Geese !   That reminded me of an old flock of water birds that, sadly, isn't seen lately (they crossed directly over the house, at sun down every evening).
   Now, that flying V shaped 'flock' has exactly FOUR birds left (they might actually be Grebes, technically).   Ouestion is, though, I wonder about the large flock effect, in the wild vs. factory farms
I guess there might be some increased danger of the various mutations spread, but certainly it's the density that's going to impact disease transmission.  Plus, in the wild, supposedly, there are various 'darwin induced' mechanisms to rapidly reduce a (wild) population.
 

Offline NiHaoMikeTopic starter

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #50 on: May 01, 2024, 10:18:13 pm »
You keep repeating this but again fail to see that people are living in similar crowded conditions. Think about schools, public transport, offices, sport clubs, shopping malls, airports, airplanes, etc, etc. At least factory farmed animals stay mostly in one place.
Nowhere as crowded and dirty as the factory farms. And a large number who show symptoms isolate themselves, something that simply doesn't happen in factory farms. Not to mention a substantial number who take measures to avoid catching the disease or spreading it. (Indeed, the most problematic during the COVID pandemic were the ones who refused to take measures.)
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Offline watchmaker

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #51 on: May 02, 2024, 10:24:11 am »
In the fall of 2019, when Covid was starting to appear, my wife and I read Pale Rider.  This was published  BEFORE the outbreak and was an analysis of the 1918 pandemic which was incorrectly termed "Spanish Flu" because the warring powers kept it secret and only Spain acknowledged it.

Anyway, it recorded almost everything we saw and continue to see.  Long Covid, impacts on the young that impacted the draft in WWII, social reactions, etc.  It was all there and.

The author (UK Based science writer Laura Spiney) concluded we never really heard about the 1919 pandemic because people were too embarrassed by their own behavior.  That is how bad it was.  Today bad behavior is seen as a sign of personal courage.  That is basically the only difference.

Here is a construct that has proven useful.  When a person takes a hard position and is proven wrong by the outcomes, they tend to not admit their mistake.  Instead they double down.

Here is my "creation story".  When the world was created, (By whatever deity; but here I think of  Adam and Eve), everything that was to be was provided.  Including common sense.  That has been getting divided into smaller and smaller bits ever since.

The annoying part to me is that all this was known, but not one policy maker looked at the historical record as a guide to their response.  Instead, they acted like kids who think they discovered sex.

This is why old people get cranky, BTW. (that and the loss of libido).
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Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #52 on: May 02, 2024, 12:04:14 pm »
I have read about the 1918 Flu for many years. It is something that epidemiologists have focused on since then.  There have been countless papers written.   

Most of the response in 1918 was the same as the response in 2020.  It was just as ineffective.   
Only the death rates were far worse during the 1918 Flu.   
As I recall, there were a few isolated small communities in the US that did not become infected. They closed off all contact with the world early on.  Masks and "social distancing" did not work and were discarded by the populace. People ceased to listen to the authorities.  Also WW1 was raging and took all the media bandwidth (except in neutral Spain, where they reported on the Flu.)   
This Flu took many more lives than the war, however. There are all sorts of death data that can be inaccurate , but the death toll was horrendous. Probably 4% of the world died.

The COVID virus is a different virus than the H1N1 1918 virus.  Different Genome.   
1918 virus targeted healthy young people, unlike yearly flu. COVID targets older people, like yearly flu.       


There are all sorts of Hypotheses about why 1918 targeted young healthy adults. One Hypothesis is that the older population had some immunity due to previous Flu epidemics.   
 Another one states that the younger population had altered (bad) immunity due to previous infection but not good immunity because they were not old enough to have had an older previous Flu that offered at least some partial immunity.   

These are just rational "guesses" and please do not hold me to these Hypotheses. I do not believe anyone knows for sure.   
Also, I am purposefully not commenting on the various "vaccines".
 

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #53 on: May 02, 2024, 01:33:46 pm »
https://www.statnews.com/2024/05/02/bird-flu-in-cows-h5n1-virus-changes-missing-data/
USDA handling of data less than stellar.
https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2024/05/avian-flu-time-to-rethink-on-farm-surveillance/
Quote
Recent investigations in which the animal livestock industry refused to cooperate with federal requests for microbiological sampling include a Salmonella outbreak linked to pork, and an outbreak of E. coli O157:H7 infections linked to romaine lettuce suspected to be contaminated with manure from an adjacent feedlot that hosted over 100,000 cattle. Whole genome sequencing of samples from the hog and cattle operations implicated in these outbreaks, and countless others, may have yielded important clues about the outbreaks’ origins, and how to avoid similar food safety breakdowns. But under the current oversight regime, livestock producers simply do not have an incentive to submit to sampling requests.
Really need to tighten regulations on factory farming, with the goal of getting it replaced with sustainable farming.
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Offline watchmaker

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #54 on: May 02, 2024, 02:31:33 pm »
I have read about the 1918 Flu for many years. It is something that epidemiologists have focused on since then.  There have been countless papers written.   

Most of the response in 1918 was the same as the response in 2020.  It was just as ineffective.   
Only the death rates were far worse during the 1918 Flu.   
As I recall, there were a few isolated small communities in the US that did not become infected. They closed off all contact with the world early on.  Masks and "social distancing" did not work and were discarded by the populace. People ceased to listen to the authorities.  Also WW1 was raging and took all the media bandwidth (except in neutral Spain, where they reported on the Flu.)   
This Flu took many more lives than the war, however. There are all sorts of death data that can be inaccurate , but the death toll was horrendous. Probably 4% of the world died.

The COVID virus is a different virus than the H1N1 1918 virus.  Different Genome.   
1918 virus targeted healthy young people, unlike yearly flu. COVID targets older people, like yearly flu.       


There are all sorts of Hypotheses about why 1918 targeted young healthy adults. One Hypothesis is that the older population had some immunity due to previous Flu epidemics.   
 Another one states that the younger population had altered (bad) immunity due to previous infection but not good immunity because they were not old enough to have had an older previous Flu that offered at least some partial immunity.   

These are just rational "guesses" and please do not hold me to these Hypotheses. I do not believe anyone knows for sure.   
Also, I am purposefully not commenting on the various "vaccines".

I understand they were different viruses.  My point was pandemics.  And I agree, the response was ineffective; it was uninformed by any of the lessons learned from 1918.

But, my wife and I read and were prepared for the three year mess.  Not much we could do, but at least we were mentally prepared and could sort out the wheat from the chaff.  We were prepared for how people would behave.

Policy makers had the tools to do a better job.  But in 1918 quarantine was a social responsibility, not a political liability.  People understood their responsibility to others and were used to the idea due to tuberculosis and such.  And we should've been better prepared and concerned about the (potential, now established) long term impacts of infection.

The major aspect I excuse is that all of the USA's emergency response was based on a REGIONAL disaster.  It was expected that medical supplies and such would be available from unaffected areas to support the region that was impacted.  Hard to deal with that one.

Early travel restrictions WOULD have helped.  If we could stop airlines in 2001, we could have done it in 2019.  BUt, "My rights" have overtaken "my responsibility to others".

This was a total lack of leadership.  Instead we were stuck with follow-ship.

I used to follow the FEMA simulations that gamed out disaster responses.  Nuclear accidents, anthrax, etc.  It comes down to that whether you are a bus driver assigned to evacuation, or you are a community leader in an infected area (or in Congress, staff or spouse), you will take care of yourself at the expense of your assigned responsibility.  Citizens in the impacted area are low on the food chain (at least when I looked at the regs related to anthrax vaccine distribution back in 2002).

I am not a prepper, but I do not expect anyone to ever "save" me.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2024, 02:37:43 pm by watchmaker »
Regards,

Dewey
 

Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #55 on: May 02, 2024, 06:23:13 pm »
According to the WHO there is no direct threat from H5N1 to turn into a pandemic because there is no spread from human to human.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(avian-and-other-zoonotic)

It looks like H5N1 has been around since 1997. That is almost 30 years already. You can't rule out anything for 100% but it is more likely a different influenza strain which affects humans is going to cause the next pandemic.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2024, 06:25:26 pm by nctnico »
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Offline NiHaoMikeTopic starter

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #56 on: May 02, 2024, 10:51:16 pm »
According to the WHO there is no direct threat from H5N1 to turn into a pandemic because there is no spread from human to human.
Not yet, at least. But it spreading to factory farms is especially problematic as it gives the virus a nearly ideal place to grow and a lot more tries to spread to humans. And the fact that it made the (according to scientists) unlikely move to spread to cows indicates it already mutated in a way we don't really understand yet.
Quote
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(avian-and-other-zoonotic)

It looks like H5N1 has been around since 1997. That is almost 30 years already. You can't rule out anything for 100% but it is more likely a different influenza strain which affects humans is going to cause the next pandemic.
Evidence suggests it's already spreading to humans, just not very well at it yet. To assume it will stay like that forever is tempting fate.
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2024/05/02/1248538298/the-u-s-may-be-missing-human-cases-of-bird-flu-scientists-say
Quote
"We know that some of the workers sought medical care for influenza-like illness and conjunctivitis at the same time the H5N1 was ravaging the dairy farms," says Gray, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston.

"I don't have a way to measure that, but it seems biologically quite plausible that they too, are suffering from the virus," he says.

Gray has spent decades studying respiratory infections in people who work with animals, including dairy cattle. He points out that "clustering of flu-like illness and conjunctivitis" has been documented with previous outbreaks involving bird flu strains that are lethal for poultry like this current one.

...

What concerns him most is the possibility the outbreak could wind up at another kind of farm.

"We know when it hits the poultry farms because the birds die, but the pigs may or may not manifest severe illness," he says, "The virus can just churn, make many copies of itself and the probability of spilling over to those workers is much greater."
The lax regulation of factory farms is the biggest issue, that they could easily be already brewing disease with no obvious signs until it's too late.
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Offline Halcyon

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #57 on: May 03, 2024, 02:45:05 am »
We were told to get vaccinated to protect others which was a lie. Our government even mandated it for care home workers and they were going to also mandate it for all frontline NHS staff. Fortunately they realised it didn't prevent transmission and cancelled mandates. The authorities have pushed far more misinformation, than crackpots on the internet.

I prefer to stick to the hard evidence. I'll believe it when I see proper, randomised data to show it works.

What a load of crap. Whilst the vaccines might not have prevented all transmission, it certainly had a significant impact on transmission rates and for those that still ended up catching COVID, it significantly reduced the symptoms in most vaccinated people. There's plenty of evidence that supports this. The fact is, the vaccination programs saved a lot of lives and made the lives of millions of others far less miserable.

I continue to get vaccinated against COVID every 6-12 months based on Australian government and doctors advice, and I'm yet to catch it. I spend quite a lot time on public transport and around people as well.
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #58 on: May 03, 2024, 07:51:06 am »
According to the WHO there is no direct threat from H5N1 to turn into a pandemic because there is no spread from human to human.
Not yet, at least. But it spreading to factory farms is especially problematic as it gives the virus a nearly ideal place to grow and a lot more tries to spread to humans. And the fact that it made the (according to scientists) unlikely move to spread to cows indicates it already mutated in a way we don't really understand yet.
No, because factory farms don't have a wide variety of humans in them. So the virus has no information on how to mutate / adapt to spread amongst humans IF that is even possible. The fact that H5N1 has been around and spreading for almost 30 years without jumping from one human to the other shows that.

BTW: it is better to go with what organisations like WHO advise rather than following stories (anecdotal evidence). The information WHO provides has at least been screened / verified across a broader panel with scientists.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2024, 08:09:42 am by nctnico »
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Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #59 on: May 03, 2024, 11:16:38 am »
The problem is that we cannot prove the efficacy of any "immunization" program for COVID at this time.   

Someone could just as honestly say that they have had no shots and have taken no or minimal precautions and have not became ill at all.  There are lots of people who could say that.   

To evaluate the efficacy we need proper studies, not just personal observations of ONE subject.  At this point, it will be very difficult or impossible to get anything close to randomized studies.   
How do we know it reduced symptoms in "vaccinated" people? I have seen no believable proof of this. Maybe someone could post some studied proving this.
Zero has a point, People who have had the shots were deemed to be infected by the testing done (for what that is worth) and told to isolate.  Authorities thought that these people were prone to communicate the virus in spite of their "immunization" status.  And, Yes, we were told that getting the shots would protect others.   Which one is it?
This sort of "logic" is why many people have no confidence in the authorities as far as their handling of the COVID pandemic.   


Quote>Quote from: Halcyon on Today at 02:45:05 am>Quote from: Zero999 on April 29, 2024, 08:51:34 pm
We were told to get vaccinated to protect others which was a lie. Our government even mandated it for care home workers and they were going to also mandate it for all frontline NHS staff. Fortunately they realised it didn't prevent transmission and cancelled mandates. The authorities have pushed far more misinformation, than crackpots on the internet.

I prefer to stick to the hard evidence. I'll believe it when I see proper, randomised data to show it works.

What a load of crap. Whilst the vaccines might not have prevented all transmission, it certainly had a significant impact on transmission rates and for those that still ended up catching COVID, it significantly reduced the symptoms in most vaccinated people. There's plenty of evidence that supports this. The fact is, the vaccination programs saved a lot of lives and made the lives of millions of others far less miserable.

I continue to get vaccinated against COVID every 6-12 months based on Australian government and doctors advice, and I'm yet to catch it. I spend quite a lot time on public transport and around people as well.

« Last Edit: May 03, 2024, 11:18:23 am by Wallace Gasiewicz »
 

Offline Gyro

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #60 on: May 03, 2024, 01:35:33 pm »
Vaccines... and lock-downs, were put in place in attempt to prevent health systems, and more specifically hospital ICUs becoming totally overwhelmed by a massive peak of emergency cases and try to spread the load over a longer period. People dying in the streets, families going to desperate lengths to get oxygen cylinders etc. were a common sight in countries that didn't have the benefit (or buying power) of comprehensive vaccination programs for their huge populations. Even in affluent places like New York, they had corpses piling up in refrigerated truck containers behind hospitals.

There was zero time to fully quantify the efficacy of each vaccine, as long as they were better than nothing - in practice the developers managed much better than that in the time they had.

Sadly there were many, many, individuals in (the lucky parts of) this world who were simply unable to comprehend the need for restrictions of their own personal 'freedoms' and a few little needle jabs (which populations in poorer countries were literally crying out for). I feel deeply for their wounded sense of injustice.

I know there are many more nuanced arguments, but I think this was the fundamental situation.
Best Regards, Chris
 
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Offline NiHaoMikeTopic starter

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #61 on: May 03, 2024, 01:39:04 pm »
No, because factory farms don't have a wide variety of humans in them. So the virus has no information on how to mutate / adapt to spread amongst humans IF that is even possible. The fact that H5N1 has been around and spreading for almost 30 years without jumping from one human to the other shows that.

BTW: it is better to go with what organisations like WHO advise rather than following stories (anecdotal evidence). The information WHO provides has at least been screened / verified across a broader panel with scientists.
The 2009 swine flu pandemic started from factory farming. So there is precedent for a pandemic from factory farms. The saving grace was that one was a rather mild flu. The next time, we might not be so lucky.

It would be interesting to do a proper study on the health of individuals who do not consume products from factory farms as compared to the general population. There are many other health impacts of factory farming not related to infectious diseases, such as bioaccumulation of pesticides.
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Offline coppice

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #62 on: May 03, 2024, 02:16:01 pm »
We were told to get vaccinated to protect others which was a lie. Our government even mandated it for care home workers and they were going to also mandate it for all frontline NHS staff. Fortunately they realised it didn't prevent transmission and cancelled mandates. The authorities have pushed far more misinformation, than crackpots on the internet.

I prefer to stick to the hard evidence. I'll believe it when I see proper, randomised data to show it works.

What a load of crap. Whilst the vaccines might not have prevented all transmission, it certainly had a significant impact on transmission rates and for those that still ended up catching COVID, it significantly reduced the symptoms in most vaccinated people. There's plenty of evidence that supports this. The fact is, the vaccination programs saved a lot of lives and made the lives of millions of others far less miserable.

I continue to get vaccinated against COVID every 6-12 months based on Australian government and doctors advice, and I'm yet to catch it. I spend quite a lot time on public transport and around people as well.
What a load of crap. There was not even the slightest suspicion that the vaccines would reduce COVID transmission when they were introduced, and there is no evidence they did. What saved us was the amazing effectiveness of more transmissible, but less nasty, mutant strains to crowd out the prior ones. Infections like COVID spread from the nasal cavity, outside the bodies protection barriers. An active immune response within the body will not result in an immune response in the nasal cavity, where the spreading occurs. Natural immunity causes a separate immune system training outside the barrier, which an injected vaccine does not replicate. This is a key reason why all previous attempts to create a useful vaccine against corona viruses have been a failure. Nasal sprays have been tried, but I'm not sure an effective one has been produced.

In most pandemics a substantial portion of the population do not ever get the disease. A result which is well documented, but poorly understood. You may be one of the lucky ones. Do you realise that if you keep taking a vaccine you loose immunity to the disease it is for? This is one of the body's regulatory mechanisms, which limits auto-immune diseases from wiping us out. Look up IgG4. What are being called mRNA vaccines are not vaccines at all. They are a gene therapy that turns your own body into a vaccine factory, and a very uncontrolled one. Problems with that lack of control is one of the factors which kept mRNA approaches from hitting the market much earlier, and were still giving serious trouble in trials only a couple of years before COVID hit.
 
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Online Zero999

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #63 on: May 03, 2024, 05:20:10 pm »

Then there's all the other misinformation exaggerating the efficacy of masks, keeping 2m apart etc. which lacked rigorous evidence to support and the authoritarian policies copied from Communist China. It appears as though the public health authorities did their level best to destroy their reputation.

And what proof is there that distancing does not work?
It isn't. I didn't say that it's proof that masks and keeping 2m apart don't work, just that there's no strong evidence they do. The Cochrane review into masking found it to be inconclusive and as far as I'm aware no studies have been conducted into whether keeping 2m apart does anything to reduce the spread or not. And why 2m? Perhaps 1m would have done? Or maybe we needed to keep 3m or 5m apart? Where's the evidence?

It would be different if we were just advised to wear masks and keep 2m apart. That wouldn't have been ideal, given the lack of evidence, but the fact we were forced to, under pain of a fine, is disgusting. If the authorities are going to punish people for breaking rules, then there needs to be extremely strong evidence to support them in the first place.

Quote
We all got covid in the office one after the other until we were all working from home as best we could. The we returned. But one colleague was clearly not well. I don't know if it was covid or something else. We sat on the same stretch of desk but with another smaller desk in the middle that we used for electronics prototyping we were at least 3m apart. And for a couple of weeks I was fine while he coughed and spluttered. Until that once that I went over to his desk to help him and he was coughing all over the place. Then I too was unwell in a similar way. Hey it's not a scientific study but I'll pitch it against anyone just saying that distancing does not work. I mean it was a 2-3 week study....
Anecdotal.

Quote
As for masks as I have tried to explain over and over they will catch and slow down stuff being ejected from your mouth so that is does not travel as far. It's called physics, take a pipe with fluid flowing through it, now put an obstruction over it, does the fluid slow down? Last time I checked physics, it does.
That's good in theory but there's lack of conclusive data which shows it works in real life.

This is the difference between engineering and medicine. In engineering, we can normally predict whether something will work or not, yet in medicine most things which show promise, whether it be from what we think will happen or in the laboratory, turn out to be useless. 


Quote

What a silly analogy. Most people can understand the difference between getting a cold and pneumonia. :palm:

really? like everyone that called covid just another flu even after it had killed many? Like everyone messed up, top to bottom. People just did not want to accept the massive change that was coming. Remember I said in January that we should stop inter country travel? nope, people were still going on holiday in April after the UK had it's first cases due a person who only fell mildly ill after infecting others that fared worse. And still we travelled abroad. I am afraid that human stupidity is unlimited, and that is what truly scare the fucking shit out of me.
In way it was similar to influenza, just more deadly as it was a novel virus. As soon as it was detected outside of China, it was game over. We should have known that it's impossible to stop the spread of an easily transmissible respiratory virus, especially now we know it can be transmitted to animals, forming a reservoir for the disease, which can jump back to humans again.
According to the WHO there is no direct threat from H5N1 to turn into a pandemic because there is no spread from human to human.
Not yet, at least. But it spreading to factory farms is especially problematic as it gives the virus a nearly ideal place to grow and a lot more tries to spread to humans. And the fact that it made the (according to scientists) unlikely move to spread to cows indicates it already mutated in a way we don't really understand yet.
No, because factory farms don't have a wide variety of humans in them. So the virus has no information on how to mutate / adapt to spread amongst humans IF that is even possible. The fact that H5N1 has been around and spreading for almost 30 years without jumping from one human to the other shows that.

BTW: it is better to go with what organisations like WHO advise rather than following stories (anecdotal evidence). The information WHO provides has at least been screened / verified across a broader panel with scientists.
I don't trust the WHO. They took ages to declare a pandemic, then pushed lies about masks. They haven't properly held China to account. They're a joke.

 
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Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #64 on: May 03, 2024, 06:07:07 pm »
I am not disagreeing with Coppice.However IMHO his use of mRNA is not entirely correct.   
The mRNA in vaccines is not normal RNA but MODIFIED RNA.   This is made with a base m1Ψ, pseudouridine, methoxyurormal     
mRNA is made with bases     adenine (A), cytosine (C), guanine (G), or uracil (U) as bases, then these bases make nucleoside or nucleotide. In this case synthetic Modified RNA the nucleoside corresponding to "U" is substituted with m1Ψ.  This is not a natural mRNA.You can search for it and decide if this is good or bad.   

This Quote is from:   https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8299225/
Cytidines can also be replaced with numerous chemical modifications, including 5-methylcytidine (m5C); uridines can be converted into 5-methyluridine (m5U), 2-thiouridine (s2U), 5-methoxyuridine (5moU), pseudouridine (ψ) and N1-methylpseudouridine (m1ψ), while adenosines can be replaced by N1-methyladenosine (m1A) and N6-methyladenosine (m6A)
Some other really complicated articles:   
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10968337/   
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acscentsci.1c00197
Not too complicated:    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RNA
The comment about IgG4 (Blocking Antibody) is well taken, If we really knew how to make the body make the different IgGs, we could solve a lot of allergic and immune problems,  We do not have this capability yet. I do not know how much IgG4 is made in response to the COVID Vaccines, if anyone has a good source for this info, please let me know. Last century, I worked in an immunology research lab, just finding IgG4 was quite the big deal back then. It is in very low concentrations.
 

Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #65 on: May 03, 2024, 06:21:59 pm »
About the sick coughing guy at work....
Yea he probably did have something and transmitted it to everyone. I believe you.  Very Likely.
He should have stayed HOME.   
We don't know if it was COVID or something else like Flu.   Irrelevant.

However, even though we do  all these things to avoid transmission of a virus, while they might make sense and might work for a while   
do not ultimately prevent the spread of the virus.  I guess the virus is more dedicated or smarter than us.
 
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Offline Gyro

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #66 on: May 03, 2024, 06:31:53 pm »
 May the saints preserve us from armchair Virologists!  ::)
Best Regards, Chris
 
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Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #67 on: May 03, 2024, 08:53:24 pm »
Do you realise that if you keep taking a vaccine you loose immunity to the disease it is for?
:palm: FFS It is exactly the other way around! Vaccines train your immune system against virusses. For mutating virusses, you'll need regular updates to stay current. It is like airplane pilots taking courses in a simulator to learn what to do in an emergency situation for a different airplane.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2024, 08:55:18 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.
 
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Offline coppice

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #68 on: May 03, 2024, 09:00:16 pm »
Do you realise that if you keep taking a vaccine you loose immunity to the disease it is for?
:palm: FFS It is exactly the other way around! Vaccines train your immune system against virusses. For mutating virusses, you'll need regular updates to stay current. It is like airplane pilots taking courses in a simulator to learn what to do in an emergency situation for a different airplane.
You might want to look this up before making a random post. Try to find something about how the body mitigates its tendency towards auto-immune problems. Its fascinating.
 

Online SiliconWizard

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #69 on: May 03, 2024, 09:29:38 pm »
It's funny to notice that AI bots are carefully avoiding this thread while polluting others. Come here bots, let's have some fun at least. ;D
 

Offline Halcyon

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #70 on: May 04, 2024, 01:21:11 am »
Do you realise that if you keep taking a vaccine you loose immunity to the disease it is for? This is one of the body's regulatory mechanisms, which limits auto-immune diseases from wiping us out.

Coppice, come on! I expected better from you. This isn't the case at all.

The entire purpose of on-going vaccination (particularly in people with auto-immune disorders) is for continued protection against serious illness. Firstly, immunity to COVID wanes fairly quickly over several months. Secondly, each subsequent vaccination I'm receiving protects against newer strains of the virus. The latest available vaccine which I'm about to get this month is for XBB.1.5 variant (something my immune system probably hasn't seen before).

In any case, I'd rather receive a free jab once every 6-12 months to provide some protection, over no protection at all. All it costs me is 20 minutes of my time. If that means that one day I do catch COVID, it's likely to be mild and short-lived, which means I'm less likely to pass it onto others. 20 minutes well spent in my opinion.
 

Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #71 on: May 04, 2024, 01:34:53 am »
There arge instances of immunization not working as intended and causing untoward reactions when the patient gets infected.  Past RSV immunizations are an example. 
 

Offline RJSV

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #72 on: May 04, 2024, 02:08:51 am »
   Yeah, uh, NO.   The (non-doctors) here with self declared correctness, dismissing some other non-doctors here.
   Wallace G. just made important point.   I had just been thinking;   If we assume, as an exercise, that there IS a complicating or side-effect factor, let's say at really low trouble level.
Now, if we figured out a low rate, such as 0.002 percent of those vaccinated get side-effects, on a SINGLE DOSE event, and somebody is comfortable obtaining re-updated versions, like say 6 times, in three years, then that 'small' risk has potentially grown by 6X, right ?
   At what point does the harmful side effect get acknowledged, (vs dismissal as some bogus paranoid 'rumor')?
 

Offline CatalinaWOW

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #73 on: May 04, 2024, 02:27:59 am »
   Yeah, uh, NO.   The (non-doctors) here with self declared correctness, dismissing some other non-doctors here.
   Wallace G. just made important point.   I had just been thinking;   If we assume, as an exercise, that there IS a complicating or side-effect factor, let's say at really low trouble level.
Now, if we figured out a low rate, such as 0.002 percent of those vaccinated get side-effects, on a SINGLE DOSE event, and somebody is comfortable obtaining re-updated versions, like say 6 times, in three years, then that 'small' risk has potentially grown by 6X, right ?
   At what point does the harmful side effect get acknowledged, (vs dismissal as some bogus paranoid 'rumor')?

It doesn't necessarily work that way either.  Some will get side effects with every exposure, some never will and just about every other possibility.

This whole thing is an argument about a very complex subject on which no one has all of the facts, or even knows what all the unknowns are.  Made more complex by a wide range of opinions about the relative merit of public vs individual safety.

I have elsewhere pointed out a simple, very well defined thought experiment which will result in wide disagreement..

Imagine that a pill is developed that with the property that a single dose will provide perfect lifelong immunity to all communicable diseases.  But has the rare side effect that(say one in a thousand)  people will die instantly and painlessly.

Would you take such a pill?  Would you make it mandatory to take it?  Would those answers change if the side effect was more or less rare?  If so, what is the inflection point?  Would the answers change if the death was weeks long and very painful?

Answers to these questions will vary both from culture to culture and individual to individual
« Last Edit: May 04, 2024, 02:32:18 am by CatalinaWOW »
 
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Offline Halcyon

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #74 on: May 04, 2024, 02:57:16 am »
There arge instances of immunization not working as intended and causing untoward reactions when the patient gets infected.  Past RSV immunizations are an example.

No one is disputing that a small number of people will have adverse reactions. It does happen. But rather, for the vast majority of the population (i.e.: almost everyone), it has a positive impact overall.
 

Offline AVGresponding

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #75 on: May 04, 2024, 07:15:26 am »
There arge instances of immunization not working as intended and causing untoward reactions when the patient gets infected.  Past RSV immunizations are an example.

No one is disputing that a small number of people will have adverse reactions. It does happen. But rather, for the vast majority of the population (i.e.: almost everyone), it has a positive impact overall.

You're wasting your time; in the words of Simon and Garfunkel, "The man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest".

This is why I don't participate in these types of thread, they just attract the conspiracy nuts, and others, all of whom have apparently zero understanding of epidemiology, or statisitics and how to interpret them.
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Offline Halcyon

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #76 on: May 04, 2024, 08:08:14 am »
There arge instances of immunization not working as intended and causing untoward reactions when the patient gets infected.  Past RSV immunizations are an example.

No one is disputing that a small number of people will have adverse reactions. It does happen. But rather, for the vast majority of the population (i.e.: almost everyone), it has a positive impact overall.

You're wasting your time; in the words of Simon and Garfunkel, "The man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest".

This is why I don't participate in these types of thread, they just attract the conspiracy nuts, and others, all of whom have apparently zero understanding of epidemiology, or statisitics and how to interpret them.


Sure, but my aim isn't to change the minds of those who are set in their ways, rather try to educate those who are willing to listen and consider facts from different sources. If we let the conspiracies run wild, there would be nothing other than "vaccines are poison" and "5G activates the nano-robots".

But yes you're right, these types of threads generally have a finite life, after which it just becomes utter chaos.
« Last Edit: May 04, 2024, 08:13:20 am by Halcyon »
 

Offline Wallace Gasiewicz

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #77 on: May 04, 2024, 10:59:57 am »
You are not doing your homework. The past RSV immunization was a disaster.
When the immunized children got RSV after getting the immunization they became more ill than they would have had been otherwise.   
It was not just a very few who had an untoward reaction.  It is probably an example of "blocking antibody"   which is why I mentioned it.     
This was an old vaccine from the 1960s.  There are now newer, different RSV vaccines.         

From The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal   

https://journals.lww.com/pidj/fulltext/2019/10000/respiratory_syncytial_virus_vaccines__are_we.23.aspx

QUOTE:   
RSV vaccine development has been hindered after the safety concerns of the first RSV vaccine that was developed in the 1960s. The formalin-inactivated-whole virus alum-precipitated vaccine, which recent evidence indicating that it was directed against post-F, was associated in naive infants, but not older children, with enhanced RSV disease (ERD) and 2 deaths upon subsequent exposure to natural RSV. The mechanisms of ERD are not well understood, but it appears that an excess of non-neutralizing antibodies coupled with a skewed T-helper 2 (Th2) immune response, and complement deposition in the lungs contributed to its development. This is a critical aspect that is being considered for the development of inactivated vaccines, and strategies to assess safety risks according to the different vaccine platforms in the infant population are required.     
I suppose I should inform the Journal that they are Conspiracy Nuts who have no understanding of epidemiology or statistics   
Since we are quoting present day pop philosophy , how about: It Can't Happen Here by Zappa

« Last Edit: May 04, 2024, 11:10:55 am by Wallace Gasiewicz »
 

Offline coppice

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #78 on: May 04, 2024, 11:04:57 am »
Do you realise that if you keep taking a vaccine you loose immunity to the disease it is for? This is one of the body's regulatory mechanisms, which limits auto-immune diseases from wiping us out.
Coppice, come on! I expected better from you. This isn't the case at all.
So, you think more and more is better and better? That's unlikely to be true. Everything in a biological system is about balance. Not to little of something and not too much. Why would you expect the immune system to be any different? Try reading on the topic, and you'll find exposure to pathogens, whether natural or mutated ones in vaccines, is the same kind of balancing act as most other things you may put in your body. There are reasons why vaccines have a dosage program, and its more than just too much is wasteful. Try reading on the topic. COVID got me interested in the immune system, so I read. There is plenty of easily accessible material out there. The interplay of the immune response to infections, and how well the body cleans up its own mutations, and avoids them developing into tumours is really interesting. The thymus is a pretty interesting organ, that's only really active in early childhood, and whose purpose is to help train the body's immune system to distinguish self from non-self. Without that functioning a baby descends into an auto-immune death spiral. The thymus is a fascinating natural solution to bootstrapping a functional system.

Most of what people colloquially refer to as vaccine booster programs aren't. A lot of people say they take a flu shot each year, like its the same shot over and over. It isn't. Its a new cocktail every year, based on the flu variants that seem to be around.
 

Offline m k

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #79 on: May 04, 2024, 11:19:29 am »
Around here original flu shot gave some narcolepsy symptoms, mostly permanent I guess.
Then the vast majority of vocal minority were crying major error in vaccine.
Adjuvant was the supposed cause back then, also a must for enough shots in time, of unknown H1N1 spreading.
Spanish flu was the obvious scare, and dropping out from the vaccine queue.

Same time China was giving that same vaccine and quite a bit more than here.
Final outcome, that had only very little news coverage, was that vaccine wasn't the thing, it was genetical.
So the live virus, that was not present in vaccine, was the reason, combined with a genetical exposure.
Good thing was that all compensations were left in place, without any hassle.

One other thing, live viruses and their doings.
My guess is that many don't understand what it means for everyday life and exposure.
Especially when very viral bug is in question, like norovirus.

One thought for young vs. old.
If virus goes to lungs it's, up to the point, good the have worse than better immunity.
Very good immunity can hit back so hard the you'll finally suffocate.

Then there is this society vs. individual.
Maybe a poll of how high hit rate one would still try to miss.
I've heard that some have tried 1/6.
Advance-Aneng-Appa-AVO-Beckman-Data Tech-Fluke-General Radio-H. W. Sullivan-Heathkit-HP-Kaise-Kyoritsu-Leeds & Northrup-Mastech-REO-Simpson-Sinclair-Tektronix-Tokyo Rikosha-Triplett-YFE
(plus lesser brands from the work shop of the world)
 

Offline coppice

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #80 on: May 04, 2024, 11:30:37 am »
One thought for young vs. old.
If virus goes to lungs it's, up to the point, good the have worse than better immunity.
Very good immunity can hit back so hard the you'll finally suffocate.
That was what made SARS in 2003 so nasty. Quite a number of young fit people's immune systems went into overdrive and killed them. There never seemed to be much publicity about that, but I know people in the HK medical system who told me some harrowing stories.
 

Offline NiHaoMikeTopic starter

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #81 on: May 04, 2024, 10:31:42 pm »
https://twitter.com/danibeckman/status/1786650661603446976?t=Ox8-l5JlhQi3QBapsjTsVg
Not a good development. More spreading, more chances for mutations.

All the talk about vaccines misses the point that if there weren't factory farms to multiply the virus so efficiently, there would be less chance of an outbreak happening in the first place and therefore the vaccines to keep it under control would be less important.
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Offline Bud

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #82 on: May 04, 2024, 11:00:27 pm »
Dude, you should not miss appointments with your psychiatrist.
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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #83 on: May 05, 2024, 01:14:20 am »
Factory farming causing pandemics is not a conspiracy theory. It has happened before.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/20/factory-farms-pandemic-risk-covid-animal-human-health
Quote
But with recent pandemic virus threats from influenza viruses such as H1N1 (swine flu) or H5N1 (bird flu) there is no ambiguity: those viruses evolved on chicken and pig factory farms. Genetic analyses have shown that crucial components of H1N1 emerged from a virus circulating in North American pigs. But it is commercial poultry operations that appear to be the Silicon Valley of viral development.

It is on chicken factory farms that we have most frequently found viruses that have mutated from a form found only in animals into a form that harms humans (what scientists call “antigenic shift”). It is these “novel” viruses that our immune systems are unfamiliar with and that can prove most deadly.

Of 16 strains of novel influenza viruses currently identified by the CDC as “of special concern,” including H5N1, 11 come from viruses of the H5 or H7 type. In 2018 a group of scientists analysed the 39 antigenic shifts, also called “conversion events,” that we know played a key role in the emergence of these particularly dangerous strains. Their results prove that “all but two of these events were reported in commercial poultry production systems”.

Imagine if our military leaders told us that almost every terrorist in recent memory had spent time in the same training camp, but no politician would call for an investigation of the training camp. Imagine if we knew that those terrorists were developing weapons more destructive than any that has been used, or tested, in human history. This is our situation when it comes to pandemics and farming.
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Offline themadhippy

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #84 on: May 05, 2024, 01:22:43 am »
why worry about it, about the only thing guaranteed with life,apart from tax ,is death.
 

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #85 on: May 05, 2024, 02:00:03 am »
Raising awareness of the problem and pushing for solutions as it could have worldwide impact.
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Online fred001

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #86 on: May 05, 2024, 04:59:53 am »
Free range farming allows viruses to move back and forth easily between factory farms and wild birds

Too bad this topic has nothing to do with electronics



 
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Offline Simon

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #87 on: May 05, 2024, 06:59:52 am »

Then there's all the other misinformation exaggerating the efficacy of masks, keeping 2m apart etc. which lacked rigorous evidence to support and the authoritarian policies copied from Communist China. It appears as though the public health authorities did their level best to destroy their reputation.

And what proof is there that distancing does not work?
It isn't. I didn't say that it's proof that masks and keeping 2m apart don't work, just that there's no strong evidence they do. The Cochrane review into masking found it to be inconclusive and as far as I'm aware no studies have been conducted into whether keeping 2m apart does anything to reduce the spread or not. And why 2m? Perhaps 1m would have done? Or maybe we needed to keep 3m or 5m apart? Where's the evidence?

It would be different if we were just advised to wear masks and keep 2m apart. That wouldn't have been ideal, given the lack of evidence, but the fact we were forced to, under pain of a fine, is disgusting. If the authorities are going to punish people for breaking rules, then there needs to be extremely strong evidence to support them in the first place.

Both distancing and masks rely on basic physics! You want a study? go an throw some tennis balls and notice that the further they go the closer to the ground they get. And that if you through them as several layers of nets they will no go nearly as far. What you are asking for in the equivalent to arguing about the distance to the moon because a tape measure was not used.
 
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Offline NiHaoMikeTopic starter

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #88 on: May 05, 2024, 12:09:59 pm »
Free range farming allows viruses to move back and forth easily between factory farms and wild birds
Viruses spread a lot easier if the animals are kept unnaturally close together. And that the poor health of the animals makes them more vulnerable to disease in the first place.
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Offline nctnico

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #90 on: May 05, 2024, 03:23:53 pm »
Free range farming allows viruses to move back and forth easily between factory farms and wild birds
Viruses spread a lot easier if the animals are kept unnaturally close together. And that the poor health of the animals makes them more vulnerable to disease in the first place.
Poor health is not the case. The idea that factory farmed animals are mostly sick isn't true. If they where all sick, the farmer wouldn't make a profit as only healthy animals are allowed into the human food chain. I have a bit of background knowledge where it comes to chicken farming and slaughtering chickens.

There is just no way around keeping animals close together in order to farm these in a commercially viable way to meet demand. And for a lot of animals it is not unnatural to be close together. Cows, sheep, gees, chickens, horses, etc are all animals who naturally live in herds. Herds provide protection against predators.
« Last Edit: May 05, 2024, 04:13:15 pm by nctnico »
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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #91 on: May 05, 2024, 05:22:12 pm »
Poor health is not the case. The idea that factory farmed animals are mostly sick isn't true. If they where all sick, the farmer wouldn't make a profit as only healthy animals are allowed into the human food chain. I have a bit of background knowledge where it comes to chicken farming and slaughtering chickens.
All the pictures of factory farms being as dirty as a sewer says otherwise. Maybe it's better in some countries than others, the US is one where regulations are too lax.
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Online Zero999

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #92 on: May 05, 2024, 07:26:23 pm »

Then there's all the other misinformation exaggerating the efficacy of masks, keeping 2m apart etc. which lacked rigorous evidence to support and the authoritarian policies copied from Communist China. It appears as though the public health authorities did their level best to destroy their reputation.

And what proof is there that distancing does not work?
It isn't. I didn't say that it's proof that masks and keeping 2m apart don't work, just that there's no strong evidence they do. The Cochrane review into masking found it to be inconclusive and as far as I'm aware no studies have been conducted into whether keeping 2m apart does anything to reduce the spread or not. And why 2m? Perhaps 1m would have done? Or maybe we needed to keep 3m or 5m apart? Where's the evidence?

It would be different if we were just advised to wear masks and keep 2m apart. That wouldn't have been ideal, given the lack of evidence, but the fact we were forced to, under pain of a fine, is disgusting. If the authorities are going to punish people for breaking rules, then there needs to be extremely strong evidence to support them in the first place.

Both distancing and masks rely on basic physics! You want a study? go an throw some tennis balls and notice that the further they go the closer to the ground they get. And that if you through them as several layers of nets they will no go nearly as far. What you are asking for in the equivalent to arguing about the distance to the moon because a tape measure was not used.
But actual field studies, conducted in real life have failed to show masking actually works in practice. Fair enough, it doesn't prove a negative, but it certainly doesn't prove positive either.

The Cochrane review even looked at N95/P2 respirators.
https://www.cochrane.org/CD006207/ARI_do-physical-measures-such-hand-washing-or-wearing-masks-stop-or-slow-down-spread-respiratory-viruses

Perhaps mask work, when worn properly? It doesn't matter, the fact not enough people wear them properly in real life to be effective, shows that the mandates lacked evidence.

Many failed medications and interventions have good science behind them.

Given most proposed medical interventions, even those with sound theory, don't work, it's reasonable to believe something doesn't work, until there's solid proof it does.


Do you realise that if you keep taking a vaccine you loose immunity to the disease it is for?
:palm: FFS It is exactly the other way around! Vaccines train your immune system against virusses. For mutating virusses, you'll need regular updates to stay current. It is like airplane pilots taking courses in a simulator to learn what to do in an emergency situation for a different airplane.
Repeat infections will do the same.

As I stated in another post, the risk of some adverse events due to the vaccine might higher than the virus for some people, so it makes no sense for them to get vaccinated.

If you've had COVID once and survived, you're much less likely to get really sick if you catch it again. This is also because the virus is mutating to become less deadly, as well as memory T-cells.


There arge instances of immunization not working as intended and causing untoward reactions when the patient gets infected.  Past RSV immunizations are an example.

No one is disputing that a small number of people will have adverse reactions. It does happen. But rather, for the vast majority of the population (i.e.: almost everyone), it has a positive impact overall.

You're wasting your time; in the words of Simon and Garfunkel, "The man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest".

This is why I don't participate in these types of thread, they just attract the conspiracy nuts, and others, all of whom have apparently zero understanding of epidemiology, or statisitics and how to interpret them.


Sure, but my aim isn't to change the minds of those who are set in their ways, rather try to educate those who are willing to listen and consider facts from different sources. If we let the conspiracies run wild, there would be nothing other than "vaccines are poison" and "5G activates the nano-robots".

But yes you're right, these types of threads generally have a finite life, after which it just becomes utter chaos.
Except being sceptical of COVID and seasonal influenza boosters is not a fringe position, based on conspiracy theories. I don't appeal to authority so won't post any names, but there are plenty of highly esteemed medical experts who are respiratory virus/mRNA vaccine septics.

The fact I've changed my position on this, shows I'm open to accepting new ideas and evidence.

I supported the first two doses of the vaccine, especially for older, more vulnerable people, when the virus was more deadly and fewer people had natural immunity.

I became sceptical when the boosters started. There simply isn't randomised data to support it.

Not taking natural immunity into account was also a big mistake. When the vaccine was initially rolled-out, no attention to natural immunity was paid. A 60 year old who had had a positive test result a month ago, was still vaccinated before a 50 year old who had not had a known infection.

A lot of misinformation was pushed about antibodies, i.e. that someone who had been infected while ago and their antibodies had dropped below a detectable level, was just as vulnerable to getting really sick, as the first time, if they caught it again, but this is not the case. Memory T-cells are the key to lasting protection against severe disease. They persist in the bone marrow for decades and enable the body to rapidly generate antibodies, when it encounters a similar virus. This will provide some protection against severe disease and death, even if the virus has mutated a bit and isn't exactly the same, due to cross-immunity.

People who were infected with the original SARS still had memory T-cells over a decade later. Although it's not proven, they would be much less likely become just as sick, if they were exposed to the virus again.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7115611/
« Last Edit: May 05, 2024, 07:45:02 pm by Zero999 »
 

Offline coppice

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #93 on: May 05, 2024, 08:06:57 pm »
It would be different if we were just advised to wear masks and keep 2m apart. That wouldn't have been ideal, given the lack of evidence, but the fact we were forced to, under pain of a fine, is disgusting. If the authorities are going to punish people for breaking rules, then there needs to be extremely strong evidence to support them in the first place.
Both distancing and masks rely on basic physics! You want a study? go an throw some tennis balls and notice that the further they go the closer to the ground they get. And that if you through them as several layers of nets they will no go nearly as far. What you are asking for in the equivalent to arguing about the distance to the moon because a tape measure was not used.
This is a ludicrous argument. Certainly sufficient distance will isolated you. Certainly a sufficiently effective mask will protect you. The few long term studies that existed at the outset of COVID said 2m separation for respiratory viruses was far too small to have a meaningful effect, and public policy had always followed that. Long term studies also indicated that simple cloth masks were never seen to be beneficial, and buildups on them seemed to often have a negative effect with respiratory viruses. I do agree that for the next epidemic of tennis balls, their flight path will be a lot more predictable than a COVID virus, as tennis balls aren't affected much by air currents.

 

Offline EEVblog

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Re: H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic
« Reply #94 on: May 05, 2024, 10:52:14 pm »
What does this even remotely have to do with electronics at all?
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