Back in the 70s there was a phase where scientists were greatly concerned human industrial activity might kick the Earth into a permanently locked-in state they named 'snowball Earth'. At the time I believed it, and was dutifully worried. That scare faded away when it became clear the Earth (at that time) was actually warming.
Then much later the 'Anthropogenic Global Warming' (AGW, meaning 'humans making the planet hotter') concerns become widely discussed. I believed that too, accepted the reasoning, and was dutifully worried.
Then around 2008 I came across this chart.
Source:
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.htmlhttp://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/PageMill_Images/image277.gifClimate and the Carboniferous Period
CO2 is responsible for climate change? Really?
"There has historically been much more CO2 in our atmosphere than exists today. For example, during the Jurassic Period (200 mya), average CO2 concentrations were about 1800 ppm or about 4.7 times higher than today. The highest concentrations of CO2 during all of the Paleozoic Era occurred during the Cambrian Period, nearly 7000 ppm -- about 18 times higher than today."
Links in the chart:
Temperature after C.R. Scotese
http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm CO2 after R.A. Berner, 2001 (GEOCARB III)
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Geocarb_III-Berner.pdfI posted the chart image not because I care if you believe it. In fact you shouldn't. I didn't initially. But it should make you go looking for information, and asking some questions about what you think you know.
That's what happened to me. It was obvious the details in that chart were logically incompatible with the entire thesis of AGW. Either the chart was wrong (mistaken or lies), or AGW was mistaken. Or lies. In fact, if there was any factual basis in that chart at all, then the entire AGW wagon had to be a load of concocted lies. That's an inescapable conclusion. Any so-called scientist making claims that current temperature and CO2 variations are dangerous, should have checked the background of Earth's past temp and CO2 levels. This is just not optional.
So who was lying? It was necessary to find out. I don't like being lied to.
I started digging. A while later I'd come to the conclusion 'AGW' was in fact a deliberately concocted fabrication, being pushed for a rather nasty ideological agenda by the originators, and picked up for research money and conformism by the rest of a large crowd. Then the CRU emails leak broke. Revealing the core originators of the AGW thesis at the Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, in their actual, blatent conspiracy to corrupt science by falsifying data and repress dissenting researchers. With their motives quite clearly revealed too.
Finding them discussing how they were going to 'hide the medieval warm period' (a very minor, recent blip that doesn't even show up on that chart of long term much wilder swings) was an eye opener.
Anyway, the history is too convoluted to discuss meaningfully here. I posted links earlier in this thread, including a time-ordered series of news and science papers links going back years. And then a few posts later on the same page (2) someone asked "Where can I find information?" Sigh.
In the meantime, for those of you on either side of this issue, here are some questions you should be able to answer, if you actually know this topic. As opposed to just taking a side due of bandwaggon effect, selection bias, system justification, or whatever. It's interesting there doesn't seem to be a 'refusal to accept that large scale conspiracies actually do occur, especially when there's both ideology and billions of dollars involved' in the Wiki list of cognitive biases:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases- What is the present day amount of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere, in Parts Per Million (ppm)?
- What is that in percent?
- What was the CO2 proportion in ppm in the year 1800 and 1900, ie around the beginning of the Industrial Revolution?
Wow, it's rising fast eh? "Like it never did before, unprecedented disaster", right? Keep going... - What was the AVERAGE level of CO2 in the atmosphere, over Earth's geological history?
- What was the highest and lowest level, during the eras since life appeared on Earth?
- How do the CO2 levels at 1900 and 2015 compare to geological minimim, maximum and average?
In doing this research you'll probably have found an 'Earth's CO2 history' graph. You may have some questions arising from that graph, in the context of the theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming. Patience... - What is the minimum atmospheric CO2 level at which plants can survive? (Along with Sunlight CO2 is their essential food; you knew that right?)
- How do plants respond to variations of CO2 levels above their survival mimimum? Why? (Hint: Stomata)
- What is the range of atmospheric CO2 over which air-breathing animals (including humans) are comfortable? You'll see values in percent; convert the maximim figure to ppm for comparison with the values of previous questions.
- Does the relative closeness of current CO2 levels to the plant minimum survival level, and that it's only ever been that close once before and for brief periods in Earth's history, say anything to you?
- What were the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Ages, and Maunder Minimums?
- How stable is our Sun's activity? How do we know?
- Are there any long term cyclic variations in the Sun's output? (Hint: the Sun has other outputs than just light and heat.)
- To what extent are causes of the Sun's output level changes and their influences on Earth understood?
Oh boy, that's a deep hole isn't it? I hope you met the gas giant twins in there, negotiated the Heliosphere and cosmic rays maze, and survived your hair-raising chat with Mr Electric Universe. - In the Earth's history of Ice Ages and warmings between them, at what stage are we now?
(And so what would you expect the global average temperature to be doing?) - CO2, water vapor, and various other gasses all have spectrums of absorbtion of light (including in the UV and IR bands.) It's a complex technical topic, but we can simplify: from your own personal daily life experience, can you think of one thing that plays a major role in changing the inflow/outflow of heat from the Earth via the atmosphere?
Hint: what most affects how quickly things cool down at night?
Key question: What are the relative magnitudes of that thermal regulation effect, vs the effect from CO2?
I could keep going, into what global intergovernmental group decided mankind needed a damned scary story to get them to agree to all sorts of things, what year they decided this, and some typical quotes. How that cascaded into the situation we have today.
Or how the actual temp rise observed during the early part of the 20th century was 'amplified' by deliberately false manipulation of both old and recent data records. One instance being the infamous 'hockey stick' graph (from CRU btw.) And then the real rise began to taper off and went flat, for so long (18 years now) that the data distortions required to hide the 'pause' became so extreme they get caught out by anyone actually checking the data. And how this situation became such a problem for the warmists that they had to change the scare story name to 'man-made climate change', since the 'warming' part of AGW probably couldn't be pretended much longer.