Problems if we all had Tesla cars

[VK3DRB]

Yesterday we travelled in a high-end Telsa up to an Olinda restaurant in the picturesque Dandenong mountains. Fantastic trip, except for the attention it was attracting.

The electronics (and the software) in this car is mind blowing. No need to use pedals to accelerate of brake. This car does most of the driving by itself. It warns you if you drift over painted lines. Choose your own instrument cluster. Connected to the internet. Listen to your own music via the web and drive. Software updates from the Internet. Fabulous user interface. Dead quiet when not moving or moving... no engine noise. No Windows "Where Do You Want To Go To Today" bloatware or iTunes crapware. No engine under the bonnet. No engine in the boot. Regenerative power control... recharges going downhill or braking. It goes about 500km between recharges. Fabulous acceleration. Awesome handling on the road. Loved the car.

I see a two main issues with this car and electric cars in general...

1. The more powerful model we were in costs $160K here. They won't sell well at this price. The rich here are not interested in saving a few grand on petrol each year. And those whose culture is to save face would buy a BMW or Merc for this price; a Tesla buys them no face. Petrol heads and cashed up bogans won't go for a Tesla. To sell well, the price has to drop significantly.

2. Assuming electric cars do become the norm, our electricity grid would not support supplying massive amounts of current when people would tend to recharge (probably in the evening when they come home) unless there is a load sharing arrangement with the electricity suppliers. The grid can barely cope on extremely hot days when all the air-conditioners are running. Add electric cars to that load and we are stuffed.

So how do you fix the load problem on the grid? Supplying a premium cost to electric car recharging at peak periods may work only when the car becomes affordable for the average motorist. Because the car is internet connected, maybe a solution is to ration the electricity for these cars. Hence the load is shared over time, either by current limiting or multiplexed charging, or by charging a premium for peak periods. Is this becoming a problem in the USA where electric cars are more popular? Anyone else got a solution to this problem?

Other predictions according to Garp:

1. In 20 years, people in cities won't need cars. Cars will become "pods" and work like taxis except there is no driver. Just enter a destination on your handheld data processor (they are called mobile phones and cell phones these days) and a pod arrives in under a minute to take you there. Meet George Jetson. Cops will have a device to move traffic on if directed.

2. Drivers licenses will become a thing of the past. Not driving test needed. But governments will find other schemes to take your money.

3. Passing cars will exchange data in GPS systems so traffic jams are avoided.

4. New battery technology will drive the cost lower and have better capacity.

[Psi]

If graphene or carbon nanotubes or similar allows for cheap solar panel sheeting on everyone's roof combined with some energy storage device at every house it will take a huge load off the grid.

[Ice-Tea]

For fun and giggles, I once did a quick-and-dirty on how much more large nuclear power plants if we all drove electric cars.

It was monstrous.

[B.B.Bubby]

Also - Car registration will cost $5,000 to $10,000 per year.

The tax man is not going to cop the petrol tax loss.

Feel sorry for Grandma who only uses the car to go to church on Sundays and the odd random visit to the doctor.


The only way to win (financially speaking) with electric cars is to get in early - BEFORE the masses.

[AG6QR]

The problem of charge time has various possible solutions, but a simple one is just to use a timer, and start charging in the wee hours of the morning, after most people have gone to bed, turned off their TVs and lights, and cut their power consumption.  The grid generally has excess capacity from midnight to dawn.  Just because people get home at 6:30pm and maybe even plug their car in at that time, it doesn't mean the charging has to start right then.  There's more than enough compute power in that car to support a timer.  There's enough computer power to support a fairly sophisticated algorithm that takes into account the amount of charge required, as well as the time the driver normally starts the morning commute, and alters the charge rate and time to make sure the car is ready to go in the morning, while being as gentle as possible to the grid and the batteries, using off-peak electricity.

Yes, the Teslas are fancy cars that are expensive.  That was intentional.  The early market research said that they wouldn't be able to compete at the low-end econobox market, so they adopted a strategy of starting with the high-margin performance car market, and working their way down to the economy car market as they built up experience and scale.  Will they ever compete with something like the Honda Fit?  We'll see.

[IanB]

The more powerful model we were in costs $160K here. They won't sell well at this price.

True enough, but that seems to be an "Australia tax". I don't think they cost quite that much in America.

The rich here are not interested in saving a few grand on petrol each year. And those whose culture is to save face would buy a BMW or Merc for this price; a Tesla buys them no face. Petrol heads and cashed up bogans won't go for a Tesla. To sell well, the price has to drop significantly.

I'm not sure about that. Since the car is an outstanding vehicle on its own terms it makes an attractive purchase on its own merit. Here in California Teslas are seen so often they have become like BMWs: so common they are no longer special. I think the company has no problem selling every car they can make.

[Psi]

Also - Car registration will cost $5,000 to $10,000 per year.

The tax man is not going to cop the petrol tax loss.

Feel sorry for Grandma who only uses the car to go to church on Sundays and the odd random visit to the doctor.

The only way to win (financially speaking) with electric cars is to get in early - BEFORE the masses.

I cant see them ever doing that, it will have to be a distance thing.
Based on your odometer reading between each vehicle inspection they will work out a monthly charge that you have to pay.
Some/most countries already do distance based tax for diesel cars/trucks.

[Tandy]

I cant see them ever doing that, it will have to be a distance thing.
Based on your odometer reading between each vehicle inspection they will work out a monthly charge that you have to pay.

Or they could go for the easy option of taxing electricity, that way they get to tax not motoring use of electricity as well, bonus for them.

[ovnr]

For fun and giggles, I once did a quick-and-dirty on how much more large nuclear power plants if we all drove electric cars.

It was monstrous.

You misspelled "glorious". You are aware that nuclear is safe, clean power, as opposed to middling ICEs burning fossil fuel? Every EV on the road means one less ICE, which is a good thing. Especially in polluted cities.

[B.B.Bubby]

re - overloading the grid problem..

I can see swap in battery packs as a way to fix this. You could have multiple packs on a "connected" smart charger. tied in with the household smart meter  maybe even installed and subsidized by wind farms as they could use your packs as storage. But you'd need a min of three packs for this to work.

Car design will suffer, no fully integrated chassis level battery packs.

Meh, trade offs  .

[nctnico]

So how do you fix the load problem on the grid? Supplying a premium cost to electric car recharging at peak periods may work only when the car becomes affordable for the average motorist. Because the car is internet connected, maybe a solution is to ration the electricity for these cars. Hence the load is shared over time, either by current limiting or multiplexed charging, or by charging a premium for peak periods. Is this becoming a problem in the USA where electric cars are more popular? Anyone else got a solution to this problem?

1. In 20 years, people in cities won't need cars. Cars will become "pods" and work like taxis except there is no driver. Just enter a destination on your handheld data processor (they are called mobile phones and cell phones these days) and a pod arrives in under a minute to take you there. Meet George Jetson. Cops will have a device to move traffic on if directed.

Here you answer the question to your problem. If you don't have a car you don't have to charge it so you don't need a big electricity connection. Autonomous cars will just drive themselves to a central charging station and will arive (almost) charged at your doorstep. Because it knows where you want to go a different car can be ready at a changeover point -if necessary due to the distance- where the depleted car will be recharged and ready for the next passenger. During charging the car will also need to be cleaned (most probably the inside).

Then again: I don't really believe in electric vehicles. They add more problems than they solve. I see a much bigger future in bio-fuels. There are huge amounts of agricultural leftovers available which are currently just left to rot (=burned by bacteria). These amounts are big enough to provide enough fuel for the cars we already own. But the same car sharing scheme can be deployed.

[EEVblog]

1. The more powerful model we were in costs $160K here. They won't sell well at this price. The rich here are not interested in saving a few grand on petrol each year. And those whose culture is to save face would buy a BMW or Merc for this price; a Tesla buys them no face. Petrol heads and cashed up bogans won't go for a Tesla. To sell well, the price has to drop significantly.

Tesla's plans from Day 1 has been "top down". Expensive luxury car first, then mid range, then a cheap one for the masses.
There is a reason why there is the government Luxury Car Tax on the Tesla.
People (my included really) complain about the high price of the Tesla, well it's no surprise because it's a high end luxury car. Yes, the electrics cost more, but it's still not a Toyota Corolla.

2. Assuming electric cars do become the norm, our electricity grid would not support supplying massive amounts of current when people would tend to recharge (probably in the evening when they come home) unless there is a load sharing arrangement with the electricity suppliers. The grid can barely cope on extremely hot days when all the air-conditioners are running. Add electric cars to that load and we are stuffed.

Do you have any data to back this up?
I saw a doco with someone who runs the (UK I think?) power grid, and they said that electric cars wouldn't have nearly a big an impact as everyone thinks.

1. In 20 years, people in cities won't need cars. Cars will become "pods" and work like taxis except there is no driver. Just enter a destination on your handheld data processor (they are called mobile phones and cell phones these days) and a pod arrives in under a minute to take you there. Meet George Jetson. Cops will have a device to move traffic on if directed.

If that becomes the dominate form of transport within the next 20 years I'll eat my hat.
People are a lot more possessive than you think. The two big things you are own are your house and your car.
Sure, the dynamics of city dwellers is changing and things like Uber and GoGet will certainly become more popular. As will electric bikes etc.

2. Drivers licenses will become a thing of the past. Not driving test needed.

Don't need one now if you take a taxi or get a lift everywhere.

3. Passing cars will exchange data in GPS systems so traffic jams are avoided.

That could have been done by now. And probably won't happen unless someones take it by the horns and sets a system standard.

4. New battery technology will drive the cost lower and have better capacity.

That doesn't take a Nostradamus to figure that.

[EEVblog]

The electricity companies will adjust tariffs to shift people away from peak time recharging. They could also with smart metering switch off recharging during the heaviest demand times like a heatwave. They would offer reduced tariffs to encourage this.

I predict that big companies with roof space will latch onto this and provide solar recharging during the work day. Will be an extra company perk to attract people.
The smart ones would already have solar to save on costs.

There are lots of possibilities. Including the possibility that cars are not going to fit crowded cities of the future. Perhaps with the help of the internet people will drive less and some will decide they don't need a car anymore.

Already happening.

[AutomationGuy]

You can charge your car by photo voltaic. I have seen people having solar panels on their car port or roof just for that.
There is just the price problem and battery endurance.
You can get a BMW i3 for less than a Tessla but a diesel car is still cheaper.
I will definitly buy an E-Car if they make at least 1000km with one battery charge. And of corse they need to be below 40K€.

[Muttley Snickers]

Yes but not all of us sit around on a computer or stuck in an office all day long, in my case and in the case of most of my friends we have a requirement to cart around ladders, power tools and a truck load of equipment to various locations, I also tow a bloody big boat up to the NSW south coast twice a year and although I'm all in favour of minimising carbon monoxide gases I just dont see how battery power will work in my case but am always open to something better.

And a warning to those that have vans or wagons, get your rear door seals checked regularly. Many years ago I drove a diesel van for years with a company until I almost died and now cant go anywhere near diesel fumes, simply didn't realise until it was too late, I now suffer badly.

Muttley

[poorchava]

I think Tesla should release a lower-end electric car. Ok, they have proven that they can build an EV that is on par with even expensive cars in terms of performance and looks. I'm sure they could build something lighter, to with less power and with less of the unnecessary shit inside. Just something simple and functional. I think this would really sell well.

Sent from my HTC One M8s using Tapatalk

[nctnico]

There are lots of possibilities. Including the possibility that cars are not going to fit crowded cities of the future. Perhaps with the help of the internet people will drive less and some will decide they don't need a car anymore.

Already happening.

But not in the way you expect. Amsterdam is already turning into a poor people's ghetto with all the associated (social) problems. People with money (and cars) move away to surrounding cities which have a good infrastructure.

[free_electron]

1) Tesla's are where large fromat plasma and lcd tv's were in the year 2000: 5000$ tv's only the really wealthy could afford. Now ? 50 inch 4k resolution for 700$...
That is what tesla is doing. Next year at the international autoshow in february they will show the model 3. Target price 32000 us$ before govt incentives. 200+ mile range 8 year warranty. Free usage of supercharger network. Production launch for 2017 2018. Many a classic car company will suffer from bouts of explosive diarrhea... At that price point it is game over for everyone.

2) power drain was anticipated when the car was still in concept. Gridload can be mitigated using large battery packs. That is why tesla released the powerwall / powerpack and stationary storage products. These will be installed in homes to charge from solar during day and run the home at night. They will also be installed at supercharger sites to charge during off hours and charge cars during peak hours to solve the grid problem. Basically averaging out the problem.

3) this 'peak' charging does not happen. The superchargers are installed in locations convenient for long trips but inconvenient for daily charge. People should do daily chargig at home. Car is always topped off so range is never a problem. Costs pennies compared to dollars in fuel.

4) go watch the tesla video when they introduced the powerwall : it shows how much space would be required for a solar installation to charge all vehicles (if all in US were electric) . It is insignificant. A speck in the desert somewhere.

5) someone calculated that , if all current teslas on the road today were 'charging ' at the same time it would use 0.1% of the currently installed solar arrays from solarcity (twin company)

These guys are tackling all these problems simultaneously. Contrary to other car makers that just sit and wait for so eone to make the first move and install chargers, powerlines and powerplants.

Tesla has powerplants (solarcity), power storage (the powerwall and stationary storage. By the way : some really large electricity companies have already bought and or are already using megawatt scale storage systems... Same for amazon , google and others ). The storage products ahave a granularity from football field size to stick it on the wall in yer garage. This is done to solve the 'creaky powergrid' problem. Ulgrading the grid is near to impossible. So solve it locally by creating buffers and redistribute power intelligently where and when needed.

All these things have been studied and thought of. They are way ahead of where you think they are (even if you include that you know they are ahead, they are further ahead than that)

As one reviewer wrote : Tesla : the impossible car that made all others look stupid.
Well, they're going after the power market now... And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

For people not living in solar-friendly area's : no need to moan. you'll still stick a powerwall in your garage and we'll get you power through the classic grid. you don't complain now that there is not a nuclear powerplant in your garden , no need to complain you can't put solar. the existing grid will feed you power. the amount of people that have a solar array on their roof large enough to be off-grid is minute. there will still be large solar farms providing power to people who cant have their own solar ( apartment buildings , tall skyscrapers, people in 'sunlit-deficient' countries. Sure , people with their own solar will pay less for their power than people without , but that problem exists with everything. live in the big city and bread cost 4$ , live in south of tunesia and bread costs 5 cents. cars in norway cst double of anywhere else due to tax. everything in the world is geographically driven. Don't like it ? move !

powerwall video
   

at 3:00 he gives the overview of what is needed to drop fossil fuel completely and switch to solar  today with current panel technology ... most of it is rooftop , so you dont even need big installations.
at 5:00 he shows how much backup batteries are needed to cover the nighttime use ...
at 11:45 he shows the powerpack : that thing can scale to gigawatts and beyond ...
at 12:30 he shows the entire building and the conference was running of an existing battery pack that was charged during the daytime using the buildings solar array.
at 13:30 he shows what is needed to drop fossil fuel worldwide...

notice the wording at 15:30 ... gigafactory 1

to give you an idea of what the gigafactory is :


and that's only half of it ...

[amyk]

Dead quiet when not moving or moving... no engine noise.

I get carsick easily if the car is too quiet and smooth, even in a petrol car with too much sound dampening and excessively soft suspension. I think electrics need to have some motor whine audible.

I've driven a trolleybus before, that was fun... lots of torque.

[EEVblog]

to give you an idea of what the gigafactory is :

Holy crap, seemed like on yesterday the location was announced 

[German_EE]

The more I learn about Mr Musk the more I reckon he's turning into the next James Bond supervillain. Anyway, I'll stick with what I originally said about electric cars, the day I can unplug my briefcase sized battery pack from my electric car and then carry the pack inside for an overnight charge I'll buy one of their vehicles. Until then, the technology isn't ready.

[nctnico]

to give you an idea of what the gigafactory is :

Holy crap, seemed like on yesterday the location was announced 

These rectangular tin cookie-jars they call buildings nowadays can be build very quickly. Looks good at a shareholder meeting... look our factory is nearly finished! Everyone in construction knows pulling up the walls is the quickest part of a build. Getting the interior done and getting a factory up & running takes another couple of years.

[tom66]

Take average of 40 miles driving per day so the average person needs to replenish 40 miles. At 350Wh/mi (typ for a Tesla Model S 85) this is 14kWh or 5.1MWh per year. Average UK household uses 4.6MWh. So the Tesla will almost double household usage. There are ~25mn UK households, assume say one car per house (it's probably a little more), so this is an additional total grid load of 127 TWh. That's about 1/3rd more than we currently use (around 350TWh year) so it will certainly be a big load.

However...... That's if everyone in the UK drove electric.  Obviously this isn't going to happen overnight. If electric proves to be the dominant technology (personally I'm a skeptic of hydrogen fuel cell cars, and hybrids still use petrol) then it's going to take 20-30 years to get to say 50% market penetration. I can't see a problem with installing conventional technology to cover this. Renewable? Not going to happen. Most people will charge their cars at night, or late evening, when solar is at a minimum, and wind is too intermittent. So electric cars may lead to the construction of new natural gas plants. Not good.  This is why nuclear is so damn important. It's the only vaguely clean technology out there which will allow us to get away from petrol powered cars. Nuclear waste isn't great, but it's fundamentally a minor issue to bury it in deep tanks of water then concrete in the ground and very little waste is produced per kWh. Unlike polluting the whole damn atmosphere with CO2.

[woodchips]

There has to be a sensible intermediate stage with low energy vehicles.

Why do none have simple regenerative braking with small batteries? It is quite an eyeopener measuring the current used by the latest engine management systems, I measured nearly 12A, all the time. Add to the electric ABS system and steering and if the alternator dies then you won't go far. Why not a small, 100-200Ah battery or supercapacitor etc to store braking energy. This can then be used to power the electrics, not the car, for the next mile or so.

Next step is to have the regenerative braking generator to act as motor to drive the vehicle in slow traffic.

Why not have modular batteries? If I am in the vehicle on my own then it can carry many batteries before the fuel consumption is affected. If passengers then fewer batteries? I am thinking here of lead acid batteries which seem vastly more robust that the Lithium batteries, power tools, I have had the misfortune to use.

[IanB]

Why do none have simple regenerative braking with small batteries? It is quite an eyeopener measuring the current used by the latest engine management systems, I measured nearly 12A, all the time. Add to the electric ABS system and steering and if the alternator dies then you won't go far. Why not a small, 100-200Ah battery or supercapacitor etc to store braking energy. This can then be used to power the electrics, not the car, for the next mile or so.

Next step is to have the regenerative braking generator to act as motor to drive the vehicle in slow traffic.

This is exactly what hybrid vehicles like the Prius do. To say that "none" have regenerative braking and small batteries is inaccurate when all hybrid cars do in fact have this arrangement.