Its normal human physiology. The graph mostly just shifts up for athletes, taper off rate at the low end should be similar.
This is probably (mostly) true. However there is also a big mental component and that may explain some of the variation in the available data. To put it bluntly, in my experience, riding for 1+ hours "to exhaustion" is bloody hard and not particularly fun, less so on an ergometer, staring at a wall. Most serious athletes will be able put in a more or less consistent effort that gets close to their physiological limits. Many non-athletes will have no idea what they are physiologically capable of and may stop way short of it because they "feel" exhausted. Pointing a gun at them to provide the necessary motivation is generally frowned upon by ethics boards.
For longer periods, fueling becomes increasingly important, so results will vary more depending on carbohydrate intake during (and prior to) the test.
So IMHO the question "what power can an average person sustain for X minutes/hours" is not so easy to answer (and may not even be particularly well defined). And I agree that for practical considerations the more interesting one is probably what speeds they
actually ride at.