H5N1 bird flu and how we're risking another global pandemic

[nctnico]

You also failed to address my point that the authorities gave people unrealistic expectations by claiming it protected those around you and pushing it too hard.

I didn't. It is just governments pushing back against mis-information in order to make people do the smart thing after all. You can try to find all kinds of government conspiracy theories behind it but in the end the general public is not informed enough to make the right decission so tell them something that makes them do the right thing anyway.

Rubbish. We were told to get vaccinated to protect others which was a lie. Our government even mandated it for care home workers and they were going to also mandate it for all frontline NHS staff. Fortunately they realised it didn't prevent transmission and cancelled mandates. The authorities have pushed far more misinformation, than crackpots on the internet.

I prefer to stick to the hard evidence. I'll believe it when I see proper, randomised data to show it works.

It's nothing to to with being anti-vaccine. The eradication of smallpox proves vaccines do work and I would like to see polio eradicated too. The problem is, the authorities are seriously damaging their credibility by pushing vaccines with weak evidence and making false claims.

Sorry, but you are having exactly the unrealistic expectations I was writing about. As you wrote before respiratory virusses mutate quickly. Therefore these virusses can not be erradicated like measles, polio, smallpox, etc. So expecting vaccines to erradicate respiratory virusses is not going to happen and nobody ever promised that (if you listen/read carefully). However, vaccines against respiratory virusses do help to prevent people from getting very ill, which in turn reduces the amount of virus particles infected people spread which then leads to slowing down the spread of respiratory virusses (with a better chance of keeping the reproduction rate below 1). So in short: vaccines which target respiratory virusses do help to slow down spreading and are preventing people from becoming seriously ill. In what way is that bad or even a lie?

[Zero999]

   I see and read the facts debated immediately, here.   Similar to other venues or blogs.
About every time, there can be a quick SKIP;...mention of a 'MISINFORMATION' dynamic 'OUT THERE', very brief and then on with the, uh, FACTS, as you see them.
   No disrespect intended, to those making points here, but this is equivalent of, borrowing a legal phrase;  factual and intellectual equivalent to a 'Court Mistrial, declared by a judge'...that is, the verbal or written exchanges are so riddled with stubborn and partisan phrases and cliches as render the whole pile as 'unresolvable'!   (Sorry)

   Sorry, no definitive 'facts' stated.
   Sorry, 'Fake News' is not a definitive declaration...just the opposite.

And in the U.S. now, we don't even enjoy the luxury of an 'honest' departure from an airplane or helicopter...all staged complete with 'fake' luggage hauled around, supposedly to block views of stumbles......

I'm not sure what you mean.

I'll clarify my position. There isn't hard data so suggest that they're completely ineffective against preventing severe disease. The problem is there isn't strong evidence of efficacy either.

Public health measures need to have strong evidence behind them otherwise, at best the resources can be better spent elsewhere, at worst they're harmful.

You also failed to address my point that the authorities gave people unrealistic expectations by claiming it protected those around you and pushing it too hard.

I didn't. It is just governments pushing back against mis-information in order to make people do the smart thing after all. You can try to find all kinds of government conspiracy theories behind it but in the end the general public is not informed enough to make the right decission so tell them something that makes them do the right thing anyway.

Rubbish. We were told to get vaccinated to protect others which was a lie. Our government even mandated it for care home workers and they were going to also mandate it for all frontline NHS staff. Fortunately they realised it didn't prevent transmission and cancelled mandates. The authorities have pushed far more misinformation, than crackpots on the internet.

I prefer to stick to the hard evidence. I'll believe it when I see proper, randomised data to show it works.

It's nothing to to with being anti-vaccine. The eradication of smallpox proves vaccines do work and I would like to see polio eradicated too. The problem is, the authorities are seriously damaging their credibility by pushing vaccines with weak evidence and making false claims.

Sorry, but you are having exactly the unrealistic expectations I was writing about. As you wrote before respiratory virusses mutate quickly. Therefore these virusses can not be erradicated like measles, polio, smallpox, etc. So expecting vaccines to erradicate respiratory virusses is not going to happen and nobody ever promised that (if you listen/read carefully).

Lots of people had unrealistic expectations, including doctors. The fact we were told that we had to get it to protect others, implies it stops the spread. If they just said, get it to save yourself getting very sick, but we don't believe it stops you getting a cold-like illness, which can be spread to to others, then people would have understood.

Then there's all the other misinformation exaggerating the efficacy of masks, keeping 2m apart etc. which lacked rigorous evidence to support and the authoritarian policies copied from Communist China. It appears as though the public health authorities did their level best to destroy their reputation.

However, vaccines against respiratory virusses do help to prevent people from getting very ill, which in turn reduces the amount of virus particles infected people spread which then leads to slowing down the spread of respiratory virusses (with a better chance of keeping the reproduction rate below 1). So in short: vaccines which target respiratory virusses do help to slow down spreading and are preventing people from becoming seriously ill. In what way is that bad or even a lie?

But there simply isn't hard evidence to support that.  The influenza vaccines based are a prediction on what might be circulating the coming season and the SAR-Cov-2 boosters are always for a variant which was circulating six or so months ago and is given to people who have already been exposed to a very similar virus, numerous times.

In addition to the above, there's data to suggest, the risk of myocarditis from some doses of the vaccines in certain demographics, males under 40, than SAR-Cov-2 infection. No wonder most countries have stopped giving it to younger people.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.23.21268276v1.full.pdf

There's even some data from the CDC which suggests it doesn't protect against hospitalisation, in those who've been previously diagnosed with SARS-Cov-2. Yes, it's not randomised data, so the same arguments can be made against it, as those which show the opposite, from population wide data.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#F1_down

[Simon]

Then there's all the other misinformation exaggerating the efficacy of masks, keeping 2m apart etc. which lacked rigorous evidence to support and the authoritarian policies copied from Communist China. It appears as though the public health authorities did their level best to destroy their reputation.

And what proof is there that distancing does not work? We all got covid in the office one after the other until we were all working from home as best we could. The we returned. But one colleague was clearly not well. I don't know if it was covid or something else. We sat on the same stretch of desk but with another smaller desk in the middle that we used for electronics prototyping we were at least 3m apart. And for a couple of weeks I was fine while he coughed and spluttered. Until that once that I went over to his desk to help him and he was coughing all over the place. Then I too was unwell in a similar way. Hey it's not a scientific study but I'll pitch it against anyone just saying that distancing does not work. I mean it was a 2-3 week study....

As for masks as I have tried to explain over and over they will catch and slow down stuff being ejected from your mouth so that is does not travel as far. It's called physics, take a pipe with fluid flowing through it, now put an obstruction over it, does the fluid slow down? Last time I checked physics, it does.

[Simon]

What a silly analogy. Most people can understand the difference between getting a cold and pneumonia.

really? like everyone that called covid just another flu even after it had killed many? Like everyone messed up, top to bottom. People just did not want to accept the massive change that was coming. Remember I said in January that we should stop inter country travel? nope, people were still going on holiday in April after the UK had it's first cases due a person who only fell mildly ill after infecting others that fared worse. And still we travelled abroad. I am afraid that human stupidity is unlimited, and that is what truly scare the fucking shit out of me.

[DavidAlfa]

[soldar]

This has beend debated before. You are right about respiratory viruses mutating a lot (hence the big outbreak every 100 or so years and 'flu' vaccines needing adjustment for every flu season) but you are wrong about good respiratory vaccinations not being effective at all. The main problem is that the general public doesn't understand what kind of level of protection to expect from getting vaccinated due to all the mis-information being spread. The truth is that getting vaccinated for any dissease doesn't mean you won't get sick; just not seriously ill to a near 100% number of cases. The cancer called social media however zooms in on the 0.00000001% getting seriously ill (usually combined with other medical issues which are left out) and claiming the vaccines are not effective at all in order to generate more views and money. Add in some government conspiracies paid for by dubious sources and the chaos is complete.

I have to agree with this.

I am not going to intervene because there are certain topics I avoid because they are like religion. You cannot reason.

But I have my own data to contribute. I was recently traveling in France and took a flight back from Paris to Madrid with a low cost airline I had never heard of before, Transavia, motto: we unite French rudeness with Spanish inefficiency!

There was a woman a couple seats over coughing a lot. I joked with my wife that she was going to give us all the Covid.  Well, I do not know if it was her but a few days later, bam!, I get a terrible flu and I am bed-ridden with high fever for three days and the test confirms it is Covid. Today is the second day I am up and about the house. Still coughing and runny nose but the terrible pain all over the body is mostly gone. And I can't smell the coffee!

It is ironic that I did not get it until now. I have taken all the vaccines and I suppose that might have helped with the fight. I am still weak and I expect to be locked up at home for the rest of the week.

Maybe I should have complained to the airline about the coughing woman.   Too late though.

[RJSV]

   Part of my point, last time, was that declarations of this person or that, is issuing fake misinformation is, in itself, a FAULTY COMMUNICATION...A simplified off-hand dismissal, that many people have been trained to nod the head, in agreement, that a person, or organization is 'issuung fake unfo', and
"Trust ME, not that liar that just spoke.".

   That's a FAULTY and trendy way to argue.

   At any rate, that's one of the two dynamics here.   The other thing didn't get picked up, and that is that this discussion must, of sorts, include the fact that this is a highly volatile US Election year, and here we go, ANOTHER useful screen, to hide all kinds of sneaks.
Oh, and now I'll indulge in my own faulty argument:
   Please PROVE that the 2020 pandemic wasn't 'useful', during the 2020 election cycle.
   That was faulty, asking to prove a negative.
(Sorry folks, if my writing style isn't easy to read, I've found that clear writing is a needed skill).

[nctnico]

This has beend debated before. You are right about respiratory viruses mutating a lot (hence the big outbreak every 100 or so years and 'flu' vaccines needing adjustment for every flu season) but you are wrong about good respiratory vaccinations not being effective at all. The main problem is that the general public doesn't understand what kind of level of protection to expect from getting vaccinated due to all the mis-information being spread. The truth is that getting vaccinated for any dissease doesn't mean you won't get sick; just not seriously ill to a near 100% number of cases. The cancer called social media however zooms in on the 0.00000001% getting seriously ill (usually combined with other medical issues which are left out) and claiming the vaccines are not effective at all in order to generate more views and money. Add in some government conspiracies paid for by dubious sources and the chaos is complete.

I have to agree with this.

I am not going to intervene because there are certain topics I avoid because they are like religion. You cannot reason.

But I have my own data to contribute. I was recently traveling in France and took a flight back from Paris to Madrid with a low cost airline I had never heard of before, Transavia, motto: we unite French rudeness with Spanish inefficiency!

There was a woman a couple seats over coughing a lot. I joked with my wife that she was going to give us all the Covid.  Well, I do not know if it was her but a few days later, bam!, I get a terrible flu and I am bed-ridden with high fever for three days and the test confirms it is Covid. Today is the second day I am up and about the house. Still coughing and runny nose but the terrible pain all over the body is mostly gone. And I can't smell the coffee!

It is ironic that I did not get it until now. I have taken all the vaccines and I suppose that might have helped with the fight. I am still weak and I expect to be locked up at home for the rest of the week.

Maybe I should have complained to the airline about the coughing woman.   Too late though.

The vaccines don't stop you from getting Covid entirely. Just prepare your immune system so you get less sick. Last time I had Covid was about 2 years ago but I only got mildly ill. I've read quite a lot about the flu-like virusses and how the immune system deals with these kind of virusses. It turns out that because they mutate so rapidly, the human immune system doesn't bother to remember all of them. So the protection wears off over the years. You'd need to get a repeat vaccination which targets the currently know variants to increase your protection. This is also the reason that 'flu shots' are changed each year based on the variants going around. If they get the mix wrong (different variants), then the shots are less effective. Where it comes to the group of virusses commonly addressed as flu, the immune system needs constant training and isolating yourself is actually a bad thing unless there is a variant out there (like Covid) which is more harmfull than normal.

BTW: Transavia is owned by Air France - KLM. I typically avoid the low budget airlines. Add Etihad to the list as well; you can end up on a long flight in a Spanish airplane which is made for short trips in Europe at the other end of the world.

[soldar]

The vaccines don't stop you from getting Covid entirely. Just prepare your immune system so you get less sick.

Yes, I am aware of the mechanism of vaccines.

I was vaccinated last time a bit less than three months ago, in January. If Covid hit me so hard in spite of the vaccine I suppose it could have killed me if I had not been vaccinated. Although you never really know. Everybody is different.

[Gyro]

My wife and I had really bad bouts of Covid back in February. We weren't well enough the to leave the house for over two weeks and still suffer some fatigue. This was the first time we could conclusively say that we'd had proper Covid, previous infections must have been very mild. I'm grateful that we were both fully up to date with our vaccinations, I hate to think what could have happened otherwise. It's not just that everybody is different, multiple infections in the same person can be very different too.

[Wallace Gasiewicz]

Nothing has changed since the thread on masks was terminated by moderators.   
Even the moderators have little idea of what they are discussing.   
The Public Health statements and commentary I have heard in the last few years have not made authorities more believable.   
They even referred to Modified RNA as mRNA (mRNA was previously known as messenger RNA for over 50 years) Which added to the confusion,   

As someone who has supervised the Respiratory Protection Programs for probably thousands of workers. I am baffled at the paths the so called Experts took us on.   

I do not know who to believe at this point and people should not assume they "know"   

As for "Bird Flu", human influenza starts with poultry as far as we know and every year there is a new Flu. Some worse than others.   
It is a guessing game which type will circulate.  History shows us there will be a Flu every year.   
They try to guess what Flu will affect the human population by monitoring poultry. Then make up the appropriate "vaccine".     
Please note that the H and N typing is only partial identification of the virus and has been used for a very long time. It does not totally identify the virus, nor quantify its severity entirely.
COVID is a bit different and the origins of this particular virus are quite the debate, we may never know it's origin.  This does little to make me confident in the "Experts".
 
Again "Who To Believe???"
 

[RJSV]

   Wallace, you are right;  the whole pile of stuff under discussion is off the rails, to the point that we might as well start shouting the statements.
    'Subtle' shifts, like;   "...We almost died, this time.."..(Paraphrasing):  " think how bad, WITHOUT vaccination, it would have been."
   Shiiit, what do I do with that?   At least I can remember; That's not anything Fauchi said, early on.   He was pretty clear.
Fauchi, by the way, went on to Write Two Books about himself, then complained he was too exposed by the press following him around.

   The whole thing (here) similar to religion debates, as noted.
Bankrupt, or mortally permiated with rumours and accusations of lying, i.e. 'pushing MISINFORMATION'.
   Interesting employment of language though.  The whole usage of accusations of mis-information and 'fake News' substituting for just saying 'they pushing lies' is curious.  Ditto for the use of the phrase 'personal attacks' as new term for 'asking unfair questions' or issuing ANY criticism, really.

Try say this three times:
   "Vaccine saved me from getting COVID, all three times I caught it"

And, 'Proper covid'....what the hell is that ?  Not just casual COVID ?   What, no test done, there ?
Interacting with coughing stranger, but no mention of wearing mask ?  Sloppy work debating.

[nctnico]

Nothing has changed since the thread on masks was terminated by moderators.   
Even the moderators have little idea of what they are discussing.   
The Public Health statements and commentary I have heard in the last few years have not made authorities more believable.   
They even referred to Modified RNA as mRNA (mRNA was previously known as messenger RNA for over 50 years) Which added to the confusion,   

As someone who has supervised the Respiratory Protection Programs for probably thousands of workers. I am baffled at the paths the so called Experts took us on.   

If you are saying using face masks makes very little sense, then I'd agree with you where it comes to the advice of wearing masks during Covid. Like any personal protection measure, using face masks properly takes care and some training on how to use it effectively. The general public doesn't have that knowledge & training though. So technically having to wear masks is not so effective to reduce spread of a virus.

However, you can't just look at the technical aspects where it comes to a pandemic. You have to look at the sociological side as well. The general public wants an answer and wants to take some action to protect themselves. This is where the surgical face masks come in. Even though these are intended to limit outgoing particles and do little against incoming, having people wear them makes them feel safe. You should not underestimate the effect of that from a social perspective. It is better than suggesting people to inject themselves with toilet cleaner like Trump did.

Using the surgical fase masks is also amplified by some Asian countries where they had the SARS outbreak many years ago. I just got back from Taiwan and there is a significant number of people (mostly elderly) wearing surgical face masks in public. Is it useful? Not so much. Does it make them feel better? Yes.

[SiliconWizard]

The near future of this thread looks pretty obvious.