Why experts say a solar storm could cause trillions of dollars worth of damage

[audiotubes]

As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead to what a team from George Mason University called an “internet apocalypse.”

Probably after the sheeple recover (is that too much to hope for?) from rotting green deals and climate crisis (yawn) there needs to be a new global threat. Without that, there is no new funding, no new government agencies, no new legislation etc.

We can't allow that to happen! 

[SiliconWizard]

As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead to what a team from George Mason University called an “internet apocalypse.”

Probably after the sheeple recover (is that too much to hope for?) from rotting green deals and climate crisis (yawn) there needs to be a new global threat. Without that, there is no new funding, no new government agencies, no new legislation etc.

We can't allow that to happen! 

 

[VK3DRB]

When a Carrington Event happens again, it is all over folks. You won't be able to buy food, fuel, get your cash out of the bank, get the news. The west will fall into chaos. If is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. The world will take at least 20 years to recover, and it won't be the same. On the positive side, you won't need to repay your mortgage.

Think about it.

[pickle9000]

My furniture should be ok. So I'm good.

[Dan123456]

While not a major one, it could be interesting to see what this one does over the next couple of days.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g1-g2-minor-moderate-geomagnetic-storm-watches-16-17-dec-2023

[lezginka_kabardinka]

“Experts”

…. Next.

[Psi]

When a Carrington Event happens again, it is all over folks. You won't be able to buy food, fuel, get your cash out of the bank, get the news. The west will fall into chaos. If is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. The world will take at least 20 years to recover, and it won't be the same. On the positive side, you won't need to repay your mortgage.

Think about it.

I don't think a Carrington level event happening now would be quite that bad, maybe on the same scale as 1x-3x of what COVID was in terms of disruptions to society.
However the Carrington event was just a big'ish one we know about, it's very likely much bigger ones can and do occur less frequently.
1 in 1000 year storm vs 1 in 10,000 vs 1 in 100,000 etc..


It kinda depends how well the government can cope with the rapid law changes needed to stop things spiraling out of control as one failure starts to cause other things to fall like dominos
Smaller countries with governments that can respond quickly to change will be much better off.
Countries with higher levels of government corruption and less public trust in government will be less well off.

[johansen]

When a Carrington Event happens again, it is all over folks. You won't be able to buy food, fuel, get your cash out of the bank, get the news. The west will fall into chaos. If is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. The world will take at least 20 years to recover, and it won't be the same. On the positive side, you won't need to repay your mortgage.

Think about it.

I don't think a Carrington level event happening now would be quite that bad, maybe on the same scale as 1x-3x of what COVID was in terms of disruptions to society.
However the Carrington event was just a big'ish one we know about, it's very likely much bigger ones can and do occur less frequently.
1 in 1000 year storm vs 1 in 10,000 vs 1 in 100,000 etc..


It kinda depends how well the government can cope with the rapid law changes needed to stop things spiraling out of control as one failure starts to cause other things to fall like dominos
Smaller countries with governments that can respond quickly to change will be much better off.
Countries with higher levels of government corruption and less public trust in government will be less well off.

there is enough fiber infrastructure which will not be damaged, to keep the power grid up.

[Psi]

When a Carrington Event happens again, it is all over folks. You won't be able to buy food, fuel, get your cash out of the bank, get the news. The west will fall into chaos. If is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. The world will take at least 20 years to recover, and it won't be the same. On the positive side, you won't need to repay your mortgage.

Think about it.

I don't think a Carrington level event happening now would be quite that bad, maybe on the same scale as 1x-3x of what COVID was in terms of disruptions to society.
However the Carrington event was just a big'ish one we know about, it's very likely much bigger ones can and do occur less frequently.
1 in 1000 year storm vs 1 in 10,000 vs 1 in 100,000 etc..


It kinda depends how well the government can cope with the rapid law changes needed to stop things spiraling out of control as one failure starts to cause other things to fall like dominos
Smaller countries with governments that can respond quickly to change will be much better off.
Countries with higher levels of government corruption and less public trust in government will be less well off.

there is enough fiber infrastructure which will not be damaged, to keep the power grid up.

Not really sure what you mean by that.

 

[vad]

The issue is exaggerated. It takes several days for charged particles to journey from the Sun to Earth, offering sufficient warning to disconnect critical infrastructure, including generators, transformers, and critical loads, from transmission lines.

[Marco]

As I've said before they don't have a clue how bad the impact will be, no one is going to pre-emptively shut down until the transformer temperature rises.

[SiliconWizard]

With about 30 minutes of advance warning, with the current models, apparently: https://www.nasa.gov/science-research/heliophysics/nasa-enabled-ai-predictions-may-give-time-to-prepare-for-solar-storms/
Or (even though they don't talk about that), maybe the models can predict with a bit more advance that a solar storm will hit Earth altogether, without predicting exactly where. In which case, that would mean shutting down everything on the whole planet for hours or maybe days until something happens. Either way, that would probably not be real fun.

[coppercone2]

that is the benefits of a advanced deep space satellite network

keep something between the sun and the earth at 2/3, 1/2 and 1/4 way to issue a signal

[Marco]

They can predict something hitting, they can't predict the per transformer induced GIC (depends on the exact reshaping of Earth magnetic field, local soil, orientation of lines, in-line capacitors etc) or how sensitive those transformers are (should long have been a design spec, but wasn't). With so little predictive value, I can't see many operators shutting down pre-emptively.

[coppercone2]

probobly easier to stockpile liquor and rice then get the power company to specify something because of space

[Andy Chee]

Anyone take any photos of aurora over the last few days?

[floobydust]

Transformer protection uses CT's with their limited frequency response. GIC is in the millhertz. But apparently not an issue on the protection (not transformer) end:
"Practical GIC levels have a minor impact on transmission-rated CTs in steady states. Transiently, even small GIC levels can lead to CT saturation during faults, but the CT pulls out of this GIC-induced saturation very quickly (in a half-cycle). "While this effect is significant, it is similar to the impact of remanent flux, and it does not bring any new threats to properly designed protection systems."

I've worked with many SEL387 etc.
Tech paper: Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories Impact of geomagnetically induced currents on protection current transformers

I've also seen GIC in pipelines, causes nuisance tripping of cathodic protection systems.

[David Hess]

Anyone take any photos of aurora over the last few days?

I missed the strongest part by a couple hours here in New Hampshire, and had a lot of cloud cover anyway.  At its brightest, it covered the whole sky, but it was very dim almost requiring a long exposure photograph to see it.

[Psi]

Was just looking up the X class ratings for the recent storm.

This one we just had was around X5.4
The Carrington Event in 1859 was around X45
Approx 14,300 years ago there was one thought to be around 10x the Carrington event, so that would be around X450

(Scale is linear, so X3 is 3x as powerful as X1).

I'm fascinated to know what living through an X450 would be like in modern day, but as pretty as it would look i'm sure it would be very very bad.