Why SpaceX Are Going to Beat NASA to Mars

[rdl]

I'm not in favor of colonizing Mars any time soon. For the foreseeable future, basic exploration and scientific outposts are all that's needed. That said, if there were to be a Martian colony established during this century I'd be willing to bet the colonists are more successful at surviving than those that founded England's first American colonies. Those people did not have an easy time of it.

Mars has nothing a human needs to survive. North America in 1600 had everything a human needs.

[apis]

Completely different situation from colonising Mars though.

Reading the history of the first American colonies it's not difficult to see similarities with the possible colonization of Mars. The fact that you can't live on Mars without life support and that there are (probably) no natives to help out will make it much more difficult. The travel time between home and the colonies will be a lot longer also. All in all, Mars just seems like more trouble than it's worth to me, but I'm sure there were those that thought the same about America 400 years ago.

For the individual colonists there will be hardships and isolation just as the first american colonies experienced, for sure. But colonising mars would still be very different. In the "new world" you had freedom of religion (which is what motivated many European emigrants), economical possibilities like owning your own plot of fertile land (with breathable atmosphere and non-toxic soil), and things like the gold rush (there isn't anything on Mars valuable enough that it would cover the shipping cost to earth). The Americas was a new world of possibilities. Mars wouldn't be anything like that, it would be a constant struggle. You can't even hope to set up your own little shop and do your thing. Everything would have to be managed in detail top down from the start if they are to have any chance what so ever. I'm sure there are plenty who would like to try given the opportunity, but who is going to provide that opportunity?

That's not the aspect I was referring to though. Politically and economically it's definitely not the same. European governments were racing trying to grab as much land on the new continents as they could, it was clearly believed to be very beneficial (certainly had been for Spain). The governments that colonised America backed up and encouraged their settlers. Not so with Mars, it will just be a gigant expense for whoever funds it without any political or economical gain (except the publicity perhaps). Who is going to be willing/able to pay for it all?

[ignator]

What is needed is a remote robotic program that will collect rocks and send them back all unmanned. There is no reason to risk any human life or the extra monies to keep them alive and return, with today's remote control capabilities.

[CatalinaWOW]

The key thing to take from this is that the more Earth like Mars, or anyplace else was found to be, the more this group of thinkers would be against going there.  Because contamination.  In fact, many of this ilk would not allow robot probes, no matter how well sterilized, and no matter how hard the space environment between here and there is.

[EEVblog]

The key thing to take from this is that the more Earth like Mars, or anyplace else was found to be, the more this group of thinkers would be against going there.  Because contamination.  In fact, many of this ilk would not allow robot probes, no matter how well sterilized, and no matter how hard the space environment between here and there is.

I've never understood this thinking.
We have to go there to find out if there ever was (or still is albeit unlikely) life, that's what advanced humans do. No scientific find would have a greater profound consequence to the human race.
The planet is hardly conducive to life, so "contamination" isn't really a major problem. It's mostly just a problem of our germs being mistaken for martian germs.

[EEVblog]

What is needed is a remote robotic program that will collect rocks and send them back all unmanned. There is no reason to risk any human life or the extra monies to keep them alive and return, with today's remote control capabilities.

I like the idea (Buzz is a proponent of this) of setting up a small scientific base on Phobos and operating probes in real-time down on the surface, before we actually land on Mars.
Not as exciting as putting boots on Mars to be sure, but scientifically a very good option.
The problem at present with rovers is the lack of real-time control by humans.

[james_s]

For the individual colonists there will be hardships and isolation just as the first american colonies experienced, for sure.

The difference is going to be huge here. Early colonists moved to a perfectly habitable area that was in fact inhabited by native populations, it was not a foreign planet. Additionally they could choose to return to their homeland, perhaps not easily but it's likely colonists going to Mars would be on a one way trip with no chance of return. They'll be trapped inside a small pod or ship, for the rest of their lives. Any offspring they have will be there for the rest of their lives.

[EEVblog]

For the individual colonists there will be hardships and isolation just as the first american colonies experienced, for sure.

The difference is going to be huge here. Early colonists moved to a perfectly habitable area that was in fact inhabited by native populations, it was not a foreign planet.

Yep, they had breathable air which is kinda important, water, potential food and soil to grow, resources they could use to construct easily (wood etc), and the freedom of movement without restriction. They weren't going to die if something small went wrong. The difference is staggering.

[In Vacuo Veritas]

 

[rdl]

Some of you have strange ideas about how wonderful the early American colonies were.

Jamestown is considered the first permanent English colony in America. Of three previous attempts, two were abandoned and one just disappeared. There were about 500 Jamestown colonists at the beginning of winter 1609–1610. There were only 60 people still alive when the spring arrived.

While Jamestown is possibly the worst example, many of the first colonies were simply abandoned. Disease, starvation, and massacre by Indians were common problems. Just getting there was a difficult journey taking many weeks and was generally a one way trip. If you changed your mind, the next resupply ship might not arrive for months.

[In Vacuo Veritas]

Incredible strawman you've constructed there, Truth In Vacuum.

As opposed to the Disney-esque fantasy of a very nearby planet just brimming over with resources that you've swallowed?? Or the quasi religious nonsense you Space Nutters repeat about space?

Some of you have strange ideas about how wonderful the early American colonies were.

Jamestown is considered the first permanent English colony in America. Of three previous attempts, two were abandoned and one just disappeared. There were about 500 Jamestown colonists at the beginning of winter 1609–1610. There were only 60 people still alive when the spring arrived.

While Jamestown is possibly the worst example, many of the first colonies were simply abandoned. Disease, starvation, and massacre by Indians were common problems. Just getting there was a difficult journey taking many weeks and was generally a one way trip. If you changed your mind, the next resupply ship might not arrive for months.

And yet, they were able to breathe the air, the gravity kept their tools where they put them and didn't make their bones dissolve, they have food in the water, wind was free motive power, they could use the stuff there since it's the same planet.

And do all that by essentially carving trees. Here we are with magical 3D printers and a very nearby planet and we've done what so far?

Oh yeah. Bullshit, that's what. You have strange ideas about how wonderful a dead rock millions of miles away will be.

You're not going anywhere. I'm not going anywhere. Elon Musk is going nowhere. Neither are your children. Evolution is still happening. In a million years there won't be a Humanity left to care about it either way.

[Nusa]

Calling people names means they are not smart enough to stick with and improve on their logical arguments. It's a lazy emotional action, focused on taking a cheap shot while simultaneously demonstrating bad manners. The end result is that most readers will dismiss whatever else they have to say as a mere continuation of the name-calling (also known as shit-talking). The ones that don't dismiss you agreed with you in the first place.

A great example of someone who communicates this way all the time has a name that rhymes with Ronald Dump.

[In Vacuo Veritas]

Calling people names means they are not smart enough to stick with and improve on their logical arguments. It's a lazy emotional action, focused on taking a cheap shot while simultaneously demonstrating bad manners. The end result is that most readers will dismiss whatever else they have to say as a mere continuation of the name-calling (also known as shit-talking). The ones that don't dismiss you agreed with you in the first place.

A great example of someone who communicates this way all the time has a name that rhymes with Ronald Dump.

Class dismissed.

[Tepe]

• Are you software dreamers thinking of sending people???
• The problem with all you hubristic techno-extrapolators is that hindsight is 20/20
• You guys have smelled your own farts so long you have methane poisoning
• You've been daydreaming you're Q from Star Trek again, haven't you?
• the quasi religious nonsense you Space Nutters repeat about space
• you are Bozo the Clown

Maybe you should cut down a little on the above. You tend to end up throwing it even at people who, to some extent at least, actually agree with you. Slow down, man.

[wraper]

• Are you software dreamers thinking of sending people???
• The problem with all you hubristic techno-extrapolators is that hindsight is 20/20
• You guys have smelled your own farts so long you have methane poisoning
• You've been daydreaming you're Q from Star Trek again, haven't you?
• the quasi religious nonsense you Space Nutters repeat about space
• you are Bozo the Clown

Maybe you should cut down a little on the above. You tend to end up throwing it even at people who, to some extent at least, actually agree with you. Slow down, man.

Was it quoted from some deleted post? This vacuum guy forgot to mention:

• you contribute something meaningful instead of shitposting

[In Vacuo Veritas]

• Are you software dreamers thinking of sending people???
• The problem with all you hubristic techno-extrapolators is that hindsight is 20/20
• You guys have smelled your own farts so long you have methane poisoning
• You've been daydreaming you're Q from Star Trek again, haven't you?
• the quasi religious nonsense you Space Nutters repeat about space
• you are Bozo the Clown

Maybe you should cut down a little on the above. You tend to end up throwing it even at people who, to some extent at least, actually agree with you. Slow down, man.

I've been hearing variations of this space garbage for 30 years. The same tired tropes, the same recycled memes, the same pseudo-religious doomsday scenarios. It's enough.

This is an engineering blog, not a daycamp for adult survivors of childhood sci-fi overload.

There are no magical energy sources. There are no magical materials. Space is mostly empty, hostile, deadly, and barren. People used to think Venus was a tropical paradise. (cf George Adamski.) Oops.

Now the descendants of those dreamers focus entirely on Mars, but somehow their "snap of the finger" simple solutions for anything Mars-based wouldn't work on Venus... Oh no no, THAT's too difficult and far away! But MARS!?? Oh yeah, simple! Eggs in one basket! The species! Colonies! Asteroids! 

[In Vacuo Veritas]

Is it also bitterness to realize you'll never be a fighter pilot? Or ... just growing up?

[Nusa]

I'd suggest that bitterness is going out of your way in an attempt to spoil other peoples dreams. Why else would you spend so much energy on this topic?

[Eka]

I'd suggest that bitterness is going out of your way in an attempt to spoil other peoples dreams. Why else would you spend so much energy on this topic?

Can't, can't, can't, is all he knows now. He's closed his mind to changes, and is unwilling to accept he isn't right.

I bet he doesn't even know that Musk isn't the only one with lots of money invested in SpaceX. Musk just accepted those investments on the condition Musk is in charge, and the goal is, and always will be, Mars.

[GeorgeOfTheJungle]

First there was Steve and the Cult of Mac, now there's the Cult of Musk: in Musk we trust. Poor fanboys, what would they do without a leader?

[In Vacuo Veritas]

I'd suggest that bitterness is going out of your way in an attempt to spoil other peoples dreams. Why else would you spend so much energy on this topic?

Because there are thousands of dreams that are actually worth dreaming. Your time on the mortal plane is limited. How about working out how to make this planet work out for the species that's already here?

Instead of pretending to care about some nebulous future? Is it because you know it will never happen therefore you don't have to work at it? You know, like praying?

I'd suggest that bitterness is going out of your way in an attempt to spoil other peoples dreams. Why else would you spend so much energy on this topic?

Can't, can't, can't, is all he knows now. He's closed his mind to changes, and is unwilling to accept he isn't right.

I bet he doesn't even know that Musk isn't the only one with lots of money invested in SpaceX. Musk just accepted those investments on the condition Musk is in charge, and the goal is, and always will be, Mars.

Strange, I still don't see any Moon bases or Mars vacation colonies. Seems to me it's you who needs to accept you aren't right. And as for who has money in SpaceX or not, how does that change a single thing? You're shifting the goalposts faster than light, and that's not allowed.

[a59d1]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/08/spacex-organizes-inaugural-conference-to-plan-landings-on-mars/

[In Vacuo Veritas]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/08/spacex-organizes-inaugural-conference-to-plan-landings-on-mars/

Oh! A conference!! That changes everything.

[schmitt trigger]

First of all, Elon has to fix all the issues troubling Tesla today.

Although building a brand-new vehicle platform is very tough, its difficulty is insignificant compared to sending humans to Mars.

For that reason, as the Shark Tank investors like to say, I am out.

[In Vacuo Veritas]

I'm going to announce a conference on how I plan to become a trillionaire with hot fitness chicks in every country waiting for me.

Therefore, it will become true!