Will our engineering resources become dominated by Chinese design?

[coppice]

Hardware is only half the job.  If I release a circuit board with no firmware I can't expect my customers to write it themselves.

If you've worked at a silicon vendor, and talked with people from other silicon vendors, you will have worked out a near universal behaviour. Silicon vendors are run by people who think the world revolves around silicon. They don't value software. They don't value systems design. They don't value board level design. This is why so many EVMs are half baked. Its why do much support software, whether its development tools or drivers, is so bad. Nobody buys a USB chip. Nobody buys a USB driver. They buy the package, which is useless if any of its components is weak. You just can't get management to consistently accept that reality.

[Bicurico]

I visited China 6 years ago (Hong Kong and Shenzhen).
My perception, as a European, was as if I was in the future.
Engineering wise they are on par or beyond Europeans. As an example: I collect TV field meter and have a respectable collection with devices from most manufacturers like Kathrein, Sefram, Televes, Rover Instruments and Promax.
All are European.
But the best field meter I own is the Deviser S7200. It features a full spectrum analyser and has all measurements you can think of, together with the best TS analyser implementation. It is fully developed and manufactured in China.
Now think of Rigol and Siglent. And the upcoming automotive revolution.
What happend is that Europe got lazy and busy with stuff like Gender, socialism and what not, while China was investing in infrastructure and planning ahead 10-20 years. We Europeans are planning ahead in 2 year cycles, to match the 4 year election cycle (2 years to steal all money and 2 years to do campaign for the nex election).
Another reason for our technical failure is the total disinvestment in military forces. As is known, the military application is a driving motor for R&D. We Europeans got lazy thinking that the US, under NATO, will take care of everything.
Europe either changes to a right wing governance and thrives for independence of China, or we are indeed doomed.

What technologies do you see being developed by the military that warrents throwing money at them to see economic growth? The trend is not to do general research since the Mansfield amendment in 1970.

Materials they develop stay super classified. Alloys, plastics, etc. Anything made for hypersonic and stealth related projects (big spending) is going to be highly classified for a long time because of national security.

I am not sure what you think the military is on the verge of discovering that's going to improve general industry.

Air logistics is something that is big spending, but its a nightmare to get benefits from this because of laws, ordinances, noise, danger, etc. Amazon is having shit luck at developing it. And it goes with robotics, its so easy to weaponize, they won't be doing anything really cool and available till they have good counter measures. Its probobly treated like having air superiority, or bot superiority. probobly means most of the developments are hush hush and restricted.

Cyber capabilities is god knows what, military unix admins. again cutting edge national security, the source code, algorithms, etc... highly classified and compartmentalized. Walmart aint gonna get the developments in database sorting and shit from them unless its some kinda encrypted service. On the plus side it means that infrastructure will be modern and maintained, which is important. Kind of like how the highway system (eisenhower) had some crazy original plot that was 'landing strips everywhere in ww3'. 

hypersonics - yeah right, the materials are likely treated like stealth bomber skin (terribly classified)

directed energy weapons - maybe some bulked up degraded performance transmitters can be used for space RF beam down power one day. That is a super delayed return. I bet the first phase is gonna be about as successful as Indium internet sats (now its taking off with musk, but the first attempt was a really grievous financial failure)

3d printing - seems like the most useful development for general industry.

robotics - it seems the enemies of the USA are apt at using robotics. the military learned in ukraine that giving people robots means robots will be used against you. Not much barriers to it. Probably gonna be stunted. AI was supposed to be awesome or whatever but it turns out right off the bat their paranoid as hell about it being used against them.

I feel like the military has a poor return on investment due to lack of general research, which seems most useful. All the stuff they want needs to be largely classified to retain a operational advantage in war..... too many people are ready to implement it globally.


I think its wise to maintain reasonable spending here, but IMO its definitely not a way out of financial crisis.


if you increase their budget too much, then press them for returns after massive tech development, their gonna end up giving away some really dangerous stuff thats hard to use and causes instability. the technology won't be useless but  that is not an efficient or wise use of money. if non military uses that extra money to make.. normal ? basic? technology, then you just have a general improvement. its kind of like getting weird ass food instead of more normal food. and the food is ghost pepper chocolate bars that give you a massive stomach ache

I actually agree with you, except that I was writing from the EU point of view, while you are probably talking about the US point of view.

It seems to me that EU has completely under-funded the military. As a result, there have been less "real-life" R&D and less military manufacturing. Instead, R&D has been receiving subvention for climate related subjects (recycling, lower carbon emission, etc.). While that is not bad, it does hinder development, when you compete against nations that don't give a damn about these issues. Interestingly, even so, China seems to invest more in alternative energy production that the EU.
 

[Black Phoenix]

I actually agree with you, except that I was writing from the EU point of view, while you are probably talking about the US point of view.

It seems to me that EU has completely under-funded the military. As a result, there have been less "real-life" R&D and less military manufacturing. Instead, R&D has been receiving subvention for climate related subjects (recycling, lower carbon emission, etc.). While that is not bad, it does hinder development, when you compete against nations that don't give a damn about these issues. Interestingly, even so, China seems to invest more in alternative energy production that the EU.

You can not compare a country almost the size of Europe where every province leader reply to a higher office (the politburo) that decides what the country will do and you follow that rules or risk to be oust of the party to a bunch of countries who have their own interests, industries, political parties and friends to take care off.

China said that they were going to be leaders in removable energy. Image (the act of winning and losing face) to the world says that they have to achieve that. Simple as that. They don't care about how much to spend, or how much time it takes or how many people is needed. They care about that they will do and it's done.

Of course it also helps that every step of the process is made in their backyard, from the mining of the elements to the manufacturing of the end product.

[rstofer]

In the US, the estimated growth in EE jobs is about 15,000 over the next 10 years or about 1,500 new jobs per year.  That kind of number wouldn't make me rush right out and work on a EE degree.

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electrical-and-electronics-engineers.htm

We graduate about 28,000 EEs per year and there are about 300,000 EEs working in the field.  Clearly, a large number of EEs should be aging out but the stats don't account for that.

[Bicurico]

At the point in time all EU should have already merged into one single country.
Instead our governments are inviting millions of people from middle east, with a totally different and incompatible cultural background.
And worse, instead thriving to be self sufficient, the EU allows everything to be outsourced, mainly to China.
The incompetence of our leaders hurts.

[coppice]

In the US, the estimated growth in EE jobs is about 15,000 over the next 10 years or about 1,500 new jobs per year.  That kind of number wouldn't make me rush right out and work on a EE degree.

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electrical-and-electronics-engineers.htm

We graduate about 28,000 EEs per year and there are about 300,000 EEs working in the field.  Clearly, a large number of EEs should be aging out but the stats don't account for that.

Is the biggest removal of EEs from the job pool due to retirement, moving out of the industry, or into some pure management role?

[Simon]

In the US, the estimated growth in EE jobs is about 15,000 over the next 10 years or about 1,500 new jobs per year.  That kind of number wouldn't make me rush right out and work on a EE degree.

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electrical-and-electronics-engineers.htm

We graduate about 28,000 EEs per year and there are about 300,000 EEs working in the field.  Clearly, a large number of EEs should be aging out but the stats don't account for that.

Is the biggest removal of EEs from the job pool due to retirement, moving out of the industry, or into some pure management role?

Electronics is not sexy anymore, there are countless degrees in other cooler subjects that have people thinking they can do electronics.

[nctnico]

At the point in time all EU should have already merged into one single country.
Instead our governments are inviting millions of people from middle east, with a totally different and incompatible cultural background.
And worse, instead thriving to be self sufficient, the EU allows everything to be outsourced, mainly to China.
The incompetence of our leaders hurts.

I'm not worried at all. Zero. The average engineer from the EU is miles better compared to one from China. For the last year I have been trying to get a Chinese firm to implement some really simple changes in the software of their core product. What should have been 2 week task is still ongoing. And this is not my first rodeo trying to get Chinese engineers to make a decent piece of software.

[coppercone2]

In the US, the estimated growth in EE jobs is about 15,000 over the next 10 years or about 1,500 new jobs per year.  That kind of number wouldn't make me rush right out and work on a EE degree.

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electrical-and-electronics-engineers.htm

We graduate about 28,000 EEs per year and there are about 300,000 EEs working in the field.  Clearly, a large number of EEs should be aging out but the stats don't account for that.

Is the biggest removal of EEs from the job pool due to retirement, moving out of the industry, or into some pure management role?

Electronics is not sexy anymore, there are countless degrees in other cooler subjects that have people thinking they can do electronics.

what you are looking to say is that there is alot of people out there they finally figured out through youtube how to make a microcontroller  system with a spec that is 'able to run in board room for ~30 minutes'.

[Smokey]

In the US, the estimated growth in EE jobs is about 15,000 over the next 10 years or about 1,500 new jobs per year.  That kind of number wouldn't make me rush right out and work on a EE degree.

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electrical-and-electronics-engineers.htm

We graduate about 28,000 EEs per year and there are about 300,000 EEs working in the field.  Clearly, a large number of EEs should be aging out but the stats don't account for that.

Is the biggest removal of EEs from the job pool due to retirement, moving out of the industry, or into some pure management role?

Electronics is not sexy anymore, there are countless degrees in other cooler subjects that have people thinking they can do electronics.

I know a few good EEs that moved on to be patent lawyers.  Way more money.

[amyk]

"Will"? If you look at what things are like now, it's closer to "Has already".

[Simon]

Electronics is not sexy anymore, there are countless degrees in other cooler subjects that have people thinking they can do electronics.

what you are looking to say is that there is alot of people out there they finally figured out through youtube how to make a microcontroller  system with a spec that is 'able to run in board room for ~30 minutes'.

Not at all, ^^that^^ is NOT electronics, ^^that^^ is programming. Ask any of these people do design a system that involves power electronics and signals and then get ready to laugh at the results when they fail because they do not understand electronics and the basis of the underlying physics. Or in my case despair every time someone says "yes but it works" of a machine that was designed by a contractor before you joined the company and have spent 2 years trying to modify whilst banging your head on the incapability of the programmer that designed it to understand common mode noise and power electronics not to mention the shit show of having two power devices being signaled by the same microcontroller system with no signal isolation. This is what separates the electronics engineers from the programmer wannabe electronics engineers.

[VK3DRB]

Chinese datasheets for chips usually are missing important information and include useless information like their manufacturing line inspection criteria. They waste time, because we have to contact them every bloody time. The USA is WAY head of the game in that department. Mind you, this is a generalisation as there are big exceptions on both sides. Eg: Honeywell in the USA is worse than most Chinese companies with their documentation quality control.

The other issue is most Chinese companies do not think it is important to hire a technical writer who is competent in English to translate their comical instruction manuals. A friend tried to start a business translating for them, but no-one was interested. They do not understand that their product is more attractive if they don't write in Chinglish.

As for the products themselves, it is a mixed bag. Some of their electronics products are excellent. Other products, downright dangerous and non-compliant in any western jurisdiction. And many of their products use blatantly stolen IP.

I have had the good fortune of procuring high quality electric devices out of China, but I always have to deal with their sales department to get all the information I need.

China is still by and large a backwards country. Things will improve when the adopt adopt more of western thinking to engineering. Give them 20 to 30 years.

[Simon]

The basic issue with china which my apprentice constantly fails to understand is that they do not work to a quality standard, they work to a price standard. This is a bigger barrier than most realize until they try doing business and the sharp ones end up using an agent that understands both mentalities and gets you what you want.

When I lived in Italy I worked for one of my teachers who wanted to import stuff. We would get samples of clothing in and the $0.50 Tshirt would have fabric with so few threads that you could poke your finger through it, but this met the $0.50 "spec".

[coppice]

The basic issue with china which my apprentice constantly fails to understand is that they do not work to a quality standard, they work to a price standard. This is a bigger barrier than most realize until they try doing business and the sharp ones end up using an agent that understands both mentalities and gets you what you want.

When I lived in Italy I worked for one of my teachers who wanted to import stuff. We would get samples of clothing in and the $0.50 Tshirt would have fabric with so few threads that you could poke your finger through it, but this met the $0.50 "spec".

The attitudes of most Chinese engineers have been set by Walmart being such a huge customer for the country. If you are working on something where the customer has said you need to comply with some spec for $19, your team will be very innovative in finding ways to reach that price goal while meeting the letter, if not always the spirit, of that spec. When you have a requirement for high performance, and price is less of a critical parameter, the team will still keep bringing you ideas for stripping out cost, rather than improving performance. It can be quite frustrating.

[Zeyneb]

The basic issue with china which my apprentice constantly fails to understand is that they do not work to a quality standard, they work to a price standard. This is a bigger barrier than most realize until they try doing business and the sharp ones end up using an agent that understands both mentalities and gets you what you want.

When I lived in Italy I worked for one of my teachers who wanted to import stuff. We would get samples of clothing in and the $0.50 Tshirt would have fabric with so few threads that you could poke your finger through it, but this met the $0.50 "spec".

The attitudes of most Chinese engineers have been set by Walmart being such a huge customer for the country. If you are working on something where the customer has said you need to comply with some spec for $19, your team will be very innovative in finding ways to reach that price goal while meeting the letter, if not always the spirit, of that spec. When you have a requirement for high performance, and price is less of a critical parameter, the team will still keep bringing you ideas for stripping out cost, rather than improving performance. It can be quite frustrating.

But still, having a healthy running factory in china and having many different customers provide expected quality expectations will provide so much feedback to the manufacturing process that the chineese engineering will develop strongly in their aim for quality. Even though they lack a bit in innovation and being better at meeting minimum customer specifications.

[floobydust]

The basic issue with china which my apprentice constantly fails to understand is that they do not work to a quality standard, they work to a price standard. This is a bigger barrier than most realize until they try doing business and the sharp ones end up using an agent that understands both mentalities and gets you what you want.

When I lived in Italy I worked for one of my teachers who wanted to import stuff. We would get samples of clothing in and the $0.50 Tshirt would have fabric with so few threads that you could poke your finger through it, but this met the $0.50 "spec".

The attitudes of most Chinese engineers have been set by Walmart being such a huge customer for the country. If you are working on something where the customer has said you need to comply with some spec for $19, your team will be very innovative in finding ways to reach that price goal while meeting the letter, if not always the spirit, of that spec. When you have a requirement for high performance, and price is less of a critical parameter, the team will still keep bringing you ideas for stripping out cost, rather than improving performance. It can be quite frustrating.

Did you know there are dozens of Wal-Mart in china, Shenzhen included. You're missing it - every Western company that sets up shop over there gets cloned, ripped off. They loot the IP as part of their nationalism and Westerners are naive thinking it won't come back to bite them.
So I think it's not the price as much as the ideas, the "how to" is what they need and take.

[asmi]

More than one HW person told me that if you want to design hardware, Shenzhen is by far the best place on the Earth to do it. The kind of turnarounds and access to all kinds of tech you get there are simply impossible anywhere else. Everything you ever need for hardware design can be found within a short reach, so you don't ever need to wait for anything. This allows for such quick iterations which are unachievable elsewhere.

[coppice]

The basic issue with china which my apprentice constantly fails to understand is that they do not work to a quality standard, they work to a price standard. This is a bigger barrier than most realize until they try doing business and the sharp ones end up using an agent that understands both mentalities and gets you what you want.

When I lived in Italy I worked for one of my teachers who wanted to import stuff. We would get samples of clothing in and the $0.50 Tshirt would have fabric with so few threads that you could poke your finger through it, but this met the $0.50 "spec".

The attitudes of most Chinese engineers have been set by Walmart being such a huge customer for the country. If you are working on something where the customer has said you need to comply with some spec for $19, your team will be very innovative in finding ways to reach that price goal while meeting the letter, if not always the spirit, of that spec. When you have a requirement for high performance, and price is less of a critical parameter, the team will still keep bringing you ideas for stripping out cost, rather than improving performance. It can be quite frustrating.

Did you know there are dozens of Wal-Mart in china, Shenzhen included. You're missing it - every Western company that sets up shop over there gets cloned, ripped off. They loot the IP as part of their nationalism and Westerners are naive thinking it won't come back to bite them.
So I think it's not the price as much as the ideas, the "how to" is what they need and take.

Yes, there are dozens of genuine US owned Wal-Marts in many Chinese cities, and quite a few rip off look alikes that don't last very long. I've shopped at quite a few of them. The topic was design. What is your point?

[nctnico]

Did you know there are dozens of Wal-Mart in china, Shenzhen included. You're missing it - every Western company that sets up shop over there gets cloned, ripped off. They loot the IP as part of their nationalism and Westerners are naive thinking it won't come back to bite them.
So I think it's not the price as much as the ideas, the "how to" is what they need and take.

And yet the reason why you shouldn't worry at all is right in what you wrote. In Chinese totalitarian communist culture any form of self-thinking and creativity is hammered out. That leaves a workforce that can do manual labour but lacks any form of the creativity needed to come up with improvements or (a step further) their own products. Hence the endless, mindless copying. This will not go away until there is a generation of Chinese who where allowed to think freely right from their birth.

After WW2 Japan was with coming up with better products after copying western products for a while within 2 decades or so. The Chinese are still hopeless.

[coppice]

More than one HW person told me that if you want to design hardware, Shenzhen is by far the best place on the Earth to do it. The kind of turnarounds and access to all kinds of tech you get there are simply impossible anywhere else. Everything you ever need for hardware design can be found within a short reach, so you don't ever need to wait for anything. This allows for such quick iterations which are unachievable elsewhere.

I think the value of this can be overstated. There are certainly times when finishing a PCB layout today, and having a fully assembled prototype on my desk 24 hours later is a big boon, but how often? People in many countries have quite fast access to parts these days, as Digikey and others have developed. Being a short walk from, say, the people tooling the case for your product can be a big benefit when you can just go over and talk to them about issues, with a prototype in hand, but most people don't even take full advantage of what they can achieve with a good camera and a zoom call.

[tautech]

After WW2 Japan was with coming up with better products after copying western products for a while within 2 decades or so.

With significant US help with the sharing of old IP to help them get back on the feet from defeat.

[asmi]

I think the value of this can be overstated. There are certainly times when finishing a PCB layout today, and having a fully assembled prototype on my desk 24 hours later is a big boon, but how often?

It is impossible to overstate the value of fast iterations. This gives you freedom to experiment, try many approaches and see which one works best. And - did I mention that it's also very cheap compared to the rest of the world?

People in many countries have quite fast access to parts these days, as Digikey and others have developed.

"Quite fast" in Shenzhen means "an hour later", not in a couple of days as it is the best case elsewhere in the world. So - again, not even close.

Being a short walk from, say, the people tooling the case for your product can be a big benefit when you can just go over and talk to them about issues, with a prototype in hand, but most people don't even take full advantage of what they can achieve with a good camera and a zoom call.

Nothing can replace a face-to-face contact, especially in Asia where knowing the right people can mean the world of difference as in that part of the world personal relationships matter a lot more than in the west where people are taught talking to "positions" and not people who fill those positions (this is a bit of an exaggeration as in reality personal connections are still important, but that's not what they teach in schools and universities). Of course than means learning the language, but that also it not nearly as hard as many people believe, especially if you focus your learning on topics which will be needed for professional conversations, and leave small talk to later stages. This by itself will predispose your contacts to treat you better because people in this part of the world do appreciate the fact that you've made the effort to learn their language.

[coppice]

I think the value of this can be overstated. There are certainly times when finishing a PCB layout today, and having a fully assembled prototype on my desk 24 hours later is a big boon, but how often?

It is impossible to overstate the value of fast iterations. This gives you freedom to experiment, try many approaches and see which one works best. And - did I mention that it's also very cheap compared to the rest of the world?

People in many countries have quite fast access to parts these days, as Digikey and others have developed.

"Quite fast" in Shenzhen means "an hour later", not in a couple of days as it is the best case elsewhere in the world. So - again, not even close.

Being a short walk from, say, the people tooling the case for your product can be a big benefit when you can just go over and talk to them about issues, with a prototype in hand, but most people don't even take full advantage of what they can achieve with a good camera and a zoom call.

Nothing can replace a face-to-face contact, especially in Asia where knowing the right people can mean the world of difference as it that part of the world personal relationships matter a lot more than in the west where people are taught talking to "positions" and not people who fill those positions (this is a bit of an exaggeration as in reality personal connections are still important, but that's not what they teach in schools and universities). Of course than means learning the language, but that also it not nearly as hard as many people believe, especially if you focus your learning on topics which will be needed for professional conversations, and leave small talk to later stages. This by itself will predispose your contacts to treat you better because people in this part of the world do appreciate the fact that you've made the effort to learn their language.

Have you tried working in Shenzhen? I've spend an enormous amount of time there. You sound like a lot of people who see a few YouTube videos about engineering in Shenzhen, and think its the answer to all the frustration they've ever felt trying to get things done.

[asmi]

Have you tried working in Shenzhen?

I haven't (I'm mostly a software dev, only part-time HW dev), but I know several people who did, and all of them told me similar things to what I said above.

I've spend an enormous amount of time there. You sound like a lot of people who see a few YouTube videos about engineering in Shenzhen, and think its the answer to all the frustration they've ever felt trying to get things done.

Tell us then if anything I said is not true? I sense a lot of frustration in your post, but little in the way of facts.