I'm not saying AutoDesk is in a bad state - but based on their financial performance and their subscription model - if we get another market crash - some of the first stocks I'll short will be Adobe and AutoDesk as they will loose a lot of revenue fast due to their subscription models.
This is the thing I don't understand about all these people moving exclusively to subscription style models. I understand that they want a recurring revenue source. What I don't understand is their willingness to make themselves sensitive to short term economic conditions. Unlike selling software outright, where the marginal cost of sales can approach zero, a subscription model requires you to keep spending on the additional services that back-end these subscriptions as long as you have *any* outstanding subscribers and even if you're achieving zero sales.
When you budget for new outright sales you always have a knowledge that they are uncertain, that it is possible that you'll have a really bad month, and you make plans accordingly. If, on the other hand, you have a recurring revenue stream you tend to rely on it, and don't plan for the eventuality that 30% of it might disappear from next month's budget.
Any software rental that can be stopped and started at will by customers will be one of the first things to go when customers feel the need to 'tighten their purse strings' in the face of an economic downturn. I can mentally hear an accountant saying "Can we do without X for three months?" and if the answer sounds anything like 'yes' cutting funding for that for the next three months. Note that this is very different from annual maintenance fees which, because of their longer cycle, give you more time to spot a trend and respond to it. It's one thing to say "we might find ourselves a bit short
in three months" and another entirely to say "1/3 of our customers disappeared
this month".
So yes, I think that you're right that the next time we see any sharp, general, economic downturn that we may see some notable failures from companies that have opted to go wholesale for subscription style software services.