insane RAM prices: it's not just AI

[madires]

RAM crisis: Micron indirectly blames Apple - https://www.heise.de/en/news/RAM-crisis-Micron-indirectly-blames-Apple-11350205.html

TL;DR:
- no money was left for necessary investments during the last downturn
- certain customers used downturn to push for rock-bottom prices
- current situation could last beyond 2027

[Monkeh]

TL;DR: Micron gaslighting while laughing to the bank with their cartel.

[Psi]

I think the whole RAM price cataclysm is a bit overblown from a consumer standpoint.

Most people only upgrade their PC every 3 or 4 years if that. So high ram prices are not that much of an issue to 99% of people.75%+ of people.
Even those who are ready to upgrade now can easily wait 2 years without their current PC becoming unusable. Probably more.
If you could build a new memory fab in the time between peoples ram upgrades it can't be much of an issue.

That being said, there's definitely some tickle down effects across the entire fab and PC/tech industry which are affecting everyone in one way or another.
I just think it's more a general "everything is expensive issue" than a ram issue.

[tszaboo]

I think the whole RAM price cataclysm is a bit overblown from a consumer standpoint.

I was told that it will have an effect on all electronics pricing. And it's not just RAM, because the same factory makes Flash memory.
We buy certain modules that have some Flash memory on them, and they already saying that they need to increase the price. It's just a casus belli. At this point companies will use every excuse to increase the prices, while the real reason is the hunger for profit.

[madires]

3 or 4 years is the usual replacement cycle for business PCs, and 5 years for servers. Consumer PCs are usually replaced less often. BTW, Microsoft extented the Windows 10 ESU program (free updates for consumers with Microsoft account in the EU) by one year (until October 2027).

[Monkeh]

Most people only upgrade their PC every 3 or 4 years if that. So high ram prices are not that much of an issue to 99% of people.

Where do those 99% of people get their insider information on planned cartel activity so they can plan around it? I missed the memo, so my needs aren't out of phase with their abuse.

That being said, there's definitely some tickle down effects across the entire fab and PC/tech industry which are affecting everyone in one way or another.
I just think it's more a general "everything is expensive issue" than a ram issue.

It's an 'everything is expensive because RAM is ridiculously expensive' issue.

[ejeffrey]

I think the whole RAM price cataclysm is a bit overblown from a consumer standpoint.

Most people only upgrade their PC every 3 or 4 years if that. So high ram prices are not that much of an issue to 99% of people.

If you said 65-75% of people at least it would agree with your own logic.  An impact to 25% of people who either pay much higher prices or signifIcantly delay a purchase is a big effect!

In reality i think a 3-4 year replacement cycle is actually a bit short for most consumers but typical of businesses.  However,  people have multiple devices.  If you have a laptop and a phone and a gaming console and maybe a desktop you have more chances to be "hit". 

A lot of people, especially gamers, were already putting off upgrades due to back to back GPU shortages from crypto then AI.  So there is pent up demand for upgrades.

Finally not all devices are replacements.  The PC market isnt a "growth" market any more but there are still various reasons people need a new device like a kid going to college, or starting a small business, or whatever.  In that case delay isnt necessarily a realistic option.

[ejeffrey]

It's an 'everything is expensive because RAM is ridiculously expensive' issue.

This also means manufacturers are skimping elsewhere as RAM and flash become larger fraction of the BOM.  So everything is expensive _and_ worse.

[SiliconWizard]

There is currently a class action against the 3 major RAM manufacturers, accused of cartel behavior. It has already happend 2 or 3 times in the past.

[Psi]

I think the whole RAM price cataclysm is a bit overblown from a consumer standpoint.

Most people only upgrade their PC every 3 or 4 years if that. So high ram prices are not that much of an issue to 99% of people.

If you said 65-75% of people at least it would agree with your own logic.  An impact to 25% of people who either pay much higher prices or signifIcantly delay a purchase is a big effect!

Yeah, that probably should be a lower number. 
I was more meaning 99% of people with regard to their home PC being so slow they have no choice but to upgrade their home PC now and pay the expensive ram price.
But yes, its probably more like 75+

[Stray Electron]

 OMG!  the sky is falling! The sky is falling!


   I paid $120+ for the first nine 1 bit x 64k 4164 RAM chips that I bought so that I could upgrade my first PC from 128k all of the way to a whopping 196k. To me if anything, today's price for RAM is insanely cheap!

[themadhippy]

I just think it's more a general "everything is expensive issue" than a ram issue.

£39 to £149 in about a  year is a bit more than the price  my food shopping has risen in the same time period,

[MT]

There is currently a class action against the 3 major RAM manufacturers, accused of cartel behavior. It has already happend 2 or 3 times in the past.

This one i presume. strange that DDR5 is not included?!
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/samsung-sk-hynix-and-micron-sued-over-alleged-dram-price-fixing-amid-record-memory-costs

[Someone]

I just think it's more a general "everything is expensive issue" than a ram issue.

£39 to £149 in about a  year is a bit more than the price  my food shopping has risen in the same time period,

Varies around a bit, but I'm not familiar with any foodstuffs that have seen 4x or 5x increases which some categories of DDR have done:
https://au.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/
DDR4-3200 2x32GB

[wilfred]

Prices today sure make the 4x 8GB DDR3 RAM I bought nearly a year ago for AU$24 look cheap. I think that was cheap even for the Aliexpress vendor.

[brucehoult]

Most people only upgrade their PC every 3 or 4 years if that. So high ram prices are not that much of an issue to 99% of people.

Where do those 99% of people get their insider information on planned cartel activity so they can plan around it? I missed the memo, so my needs aren't out of phase with their abuse.

It's not like a 4 or 5 or 6 year old PC either dies or becomes obsolete overnight, forcing an upgrade. Delaying an upgrade you were thinking about by 1 or 2 more years is unlikely to be very painful.

My current computing arsenal of things I use pretty much every day is:

- 2026 (May) SpacemiT K3 RISC-V SBC, 8 performance cores + 8 "AI" cores that can also run regular apps at ~40% the speed of the main cores. 32 GB RAM. Good for running local 30B LLM models.

- 2023 VisionFive 2 4x 1.5 GHz cores, 4 GB RAM. Runs monitoring / control / logging for my solar power

- 2023 Lenovo i9-13900HX laptop with 24 cores (8+16) 32 GB RAM. My workhorse. Normally lid closed, used from the Mac. I was considering an upgrade to 64 GB, now on hold

- 2022 iPhone SE. Plenty fast enough, battery life still acceptable (can be replaced anyway). With 4 GB RAM and recent OS/apps apps quitting and restarting is just starting to be painful (especially X)

- 2020 M1 Mac Mini with 8 cores (4+4) and 16 GB RAM. It's what I sit at all day. It has a 32" 4K screen.

- 2015 12.9" iPad Pro. Used every day, but not usually for long and the battery lasts a couple of weeks. Can't run recent OS, but so far no problems with web browsing or media payback.


Also plugged in with a network connection and turned on when needed:

- 2018 Threadripper 2990WX, 32 cores, 128 GB RAM. The i9-13900 laptop is faster on everything that can run in 32 GB RAM, and uses a lot less electricity.

- 2012 Mac Mini i7-3720QM, 8 GB RAM running Ubuntu 24.04.

The only thing I'm likely to buy in the next 12-24 months is a next generation RISC-V SBC, probably a Tenstorrent Atlantis (Ascalon-X CPU cores). They are improving very rapidly.

An updated iPhone would be next on the list, but I don't want to move away from a physical home button and Touch-ID.

[Psi]

It's not like a 4 or 5 or 6 year old PC either dies or becomes obsolete overnight, forcing an upgrade. Delaying an upgrade you were thinking about by 1 or 2 more years is unlikely to be very painful.

My current PC is a i5 7600K with 16GB DDR4.
I got it around 2017 so its around 8 or 9 years old now.
It's probably time for an upgrade but it's not slow at all, and not causing me any issues that needs an upgrade.
I did put at RTX5060 TI in this year, just so I could do local LLM, play some games and drive my monitor in HDR, but that's about it.

Currently i'm stuck on Win10 because it doesn't have 2.0 TPM.  but I could grab a TPM module for $15 if i really needed to.
I think the CPU is below the min-specs for win11. I'd have to force it to install anyway, even with the TPM module.
Probably better off sticking with win10 anyway

[RoGeorge]

I wish the whole world will come to normal.
Meanwhile, how about making webpages (and programs) that need 1kB instead of 1GB of RAM? 

[brucehoult]

It's not like a 4 or 5 or 6 year old PC either dies or becomes obsolete overnight, forcing an upgrade. Delaying an upgrade you were thinking about by 1 or 2 more years is unlikely to be very painful.

My current PC is a i5 7600K with 16GB DDR4.
I got it around 2017 so its around 8 or 9 years old now.
It's probably time for an upgrade but it's not slow at all, and not causing me any issues that needs an upgrade.

Yeah, that speed is still fine for general use. And 16GB isn't painful yet.

How about...

Big CPU upgrade, modest RAM upgrade (32 GB): https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/marketplace/computers/desktops/no-monitor/listing/6005716311

Modest CPU upgrade, big RAM upgrade (64GB): https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/marketplace/computers/desktops/no-monitor/listing/6009811051

Mind you both of those are twice as expensive as just buying 32GB of DDR4 right now .....

[tszaboo]

OMG!  the sky is falling! The sky is falling!


   I paid $120+ for the first nine 1 bit x 64k 4164 RAM chips that I bought so that I could upgrade my first PC from 128k all of the way to a whopping 196k. To me if anything, today's price for RAM is insanely cheap!

Sure, and I was able to browse the internet and have Excel running on 512MB RAM not that long ago.
Now a single webpage is using more than that.

[Psi]

It's not like a 4 or 5 or 6 year old PC either dies or becomes obsolete overnight, forcing an upgrade. Delaying an upgrade you were thinking about by 1 or 2 more years is unlikely to be very painful.

My current PC is a i5 7600K with 16GB DDR4.
I got it around 2017 so its around 8 or 9 years old now.
It's probably time for an upgrade but it's not slow at all, and not causing me any issues that needs an upgrade.

....
Mind you both of those are twice as expensive as just buying 32GB of DDR4 right now .....

Yeah, i have considered throwing another 16GB chip in. I'd get a boost from being in dual channel mode, and of course from having 32GB.
But i doubt i would notice any real world difference in usability, so i don't see any point yet.
Games might get a few more FPS but not enough for me to care.
Id rather save up for a future PC with 128GB unified memory so i can run bigger local LLMs

[SiliconWizard]

I wish the whole world will come to normal.
Meanwhile, how about making webpages (and programs) that need 1kB instead of 1GB of RAM? 

Currently, my browser takes up about 9 GB of RAM.

[Psi]

I wish the whole world will come to normal.
Meanwhile, how about making webpages (and programs) that need 1kB instead of 1GB of RAM? 

Currently, my browser takes up about 9 GB of RAM.

Do you have like 50 tabs open and keep tabs open between reboots?

Mine is currently sitting at 1.3GB
I dont have tabs remembered between reboots

[default0.0player]

I think the whole RAM price cataclysm is a bit overblown from a consumer standpoint.

Most people only upgrade their PC every 3 or 4 years if that. So high ram prices are not that much of an issue to 99% of people.

If you said 65-75% of people at least it would agree with your own logic.  An impact to 25% of people who either pay much higher prices or signifIcantly delay a purchase is a big effect!

Yeah, that probably should be a lower number. 
I was more meaning 99% of people with regard to their home PC being so slow they have no choice but to upgrade their home PC now and pay the expensive ram price.
But yes, its probably more like 75+

and 75% of the slowdowns are caused by software (usually forced) updates that introduce more and more bloat. The computer itself has almost no moving parts to degrade over time

[tszaboo]

I think the whole RAM price cataclysm is a bit overblown from a consumer standpoint.

Most people only upgrade their PC every 3 or 4 years if that. So high ram prices are not that much of an issue to 99% of people.

If you said 65-75% of people at least it would agree with your own logic.  An impact to 25% of people who either pay much higher prices or signifIcantly delay a purchase is a big effect!

Yeah, that probably should be a lower number. 
I was more meaning 99% of people with regard to their home PC being so slow they have no choice but to upgrade their home PC now and pay the expensive ram price.
But yes, its probably more like 75+

and 75% of the slowdowns are caused by software (usually forced) updates that introduce more and more bloat. The computer itself has almost no moving parts to degrade over time

Well, you say that, but intel unfortunately (with their infinite wisdom) found a way to make CPUs that degrade over time.
MY old SSD also kicked the bucket after a while, and became extremely slow. Which might still be a software issue, who knows.
But if you asked me 5 years ago, I would've agreed with it. Now, I think 70& of the issues is microslop pushing AI coded updates, that break everything, 29% is other companies messing up things, and 1% is hardware issue. And it's because the software issues expanded, not because hardware became more reliable. It's amazing how nothing works properly anymore.