EEVblog #751 - How To Debunk A Product (The Batteriser)

[LabSpokane]

When I replied about the "scam" claims, it was in reference to the insinuations that Batteroo will simply take the money and run. Once again, there is no evidence that will occur. What has been shown thus far is a genuine effort to develop a product that will hopefully be delivered. I even believe that they will deliver functional boost converters. Whether or not that product will provide the benefits as claimed is another matter.

I have concerns that Batteroo will exhaust their funding before they fulfill their commitments. I have far less concern that they will not attempt to deliver at all.

Once again, fairness and accuracy matter.

[edy]

There is no fraud in fivers making the video, but there is if the advertiser use it to support unfounded commercial or scientific claims!

There is no fraud in hiring Fiverr people or anyone else to make a video advertisement. Whether they stretch the truth or not is another story, but at least let's be clear about it... and call it an advertisement.

What I don't like is when an IGG campaign or any other business tries to proclaim it as being "grass-roots" or hide the fact that it is a paid advertisement. For example, when there are fake reviews, likes and so on, portraying to be real honest people like you and me who have tried the product and giving their opinion.

Let's be fair, you can't even trust a lot of "normal" reviews because you only get biased results. Often when people complain, they write nasty stuff. You hear bad stories and complaints way more than good or stellar service. Just look at many of the reviews for hotels and resorts, and restaurants. So I would take them all with a grain of salt... This just adds even more uncertainty in the mix.

What we need are systems that allow responses to reviews from other users. For example, if someone bad-mouths an establishment why not the owner of the business be able to respond? Perhaps they would shed light on what happened, or apologize, or point out the customer was an a-hole who couldn't be satisfied no matter what. Or if people put fake reviews, other users could write replies and ask if they tried this or that and how they came up with praising it when they found all these other issues, and so on. But the systems aren't designed that way... Of course that could also be abused. So what else is there? Just don't trust anything you read from people you don't know... only from people who you know (friends, family, co-workers) and take a risk on it yourself and make up your own mind I guess?

[SL4P]

There is no fraud in fivers making the video, but there is if the advertiser use it to support unfounded commercial or scientific claims!

There is no fraud in hiring Fiverr people or anyone else to make a video advertisement. Whether they stretch the truth or not is another story, but at least let's be clear about it... and call it an advertisement.

No stress, but that's exactly what I said.
The videos, and asking for them to be made are no problem, but promoting them as genuine - appears to be representative of Batteroo' illness.

[edy]

No stress, but that's exactly what I said.
The videos, and asking for them to be made are no problem, but promoting them as genuine - appears to be representative of Batteroo' illness.

Totally agree!!! 

[EEVblog]

What I don't like is when an IGG campaign or any other business tries to proclaim it as being "grass-roots" or hide the fact that it is a paid advertisement. For example, when there are fake reviews, likes and so on, portraying to be real honest people like you and me who have tried the product and giving their opinion.

Unfortunately this is so common in the industry that is even has a name - astroturfing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing
It now seems so common that people expect it as being normal business practice and see nothing wrong with it. As if it's part of the official startup marketing playbook.
Like people accepting that politicians lie, as if it's a part of the job.

[SL4P]

Kinda now the reality is that ethics, principles, and commercial integrity are an optional extra - only after you win the race to the bottom!
While it is being very selective, it seems that as cross-border/cross-cultural trading became more common in the 50s and 60s - we have broadly accepted the lowest common denominator in all business practices.
Probably irreversible, so we have to look for the next era of commerce to implement stronger standards...

[Kilrah]

I have concerns that Batteroo will exhaust their funding before they fulfill their commitments. I have far less concern that they will not attempt to deliver at all.

The only problem is that it's very easy to do the latter while using the former as an excuse... and you just showed it would work as you'd believe it

[LabSpokane]

I have concerns that Batteroo will exhaust their funding before they fulfill their commitments. I have far less concern that they will not attempt to deliver at all.

The only problem is that it's very easy to do the latter while using the former as an excuse... and you just showed it would work as you'd believe it

If so, then *you* need to explain why so much money has been spent thus far on industrial design, marketing, and prototyping. I know energy fraudsters. I meet them professionally. The ones that take the money and run do not spend money like this. They pocket it all instead.

 Batteroo has some aspects with regards to claims (as in nearly all of them) that I take serious issue with. As far as these assertions that Batteroo will pocket this pittance of cash they have received, once again, all evidence is to the contrary. All evidence is that Batteroo will make a good faith effort to deliver a physical product to their clients.

[Wytnucls]

Honoring the IGG orders is going to cost them a fortune. A large amount of those are likely to be freebees, awarded for referrals. So far, we've only seen real sleeves on AA batteries. Production for AAA, C and D cells has to start in earnest.
It could take a few months, but once reality sets in and dreams of large orders and IPO evaporate, it wouldn't be surprising if SKTA pulls the plug (they own 25% equity in Batteroo).
Personally, and it's just a hunch, I will be amazed if anything gets released.

[Kilrah]

If so, then *you* need to explain why so much money has been spent thus far on industrial design, marketing, and prototyping. I know energy fraudsters. I meet them professionally. The ones that take the money and run do not spend money like this.

I really hope you're right.
Personally when I see someone is able to find just the right balance between BS claims and proper ones to get people to follow... I tend to believe they're just as capable of finding the same balance of just spending enough to appear legit while pocketing the rest. And their situation does sound a bit like that to me. Base a whole solid business plan on stirring things up and getting initial funding from a crowdfunding campaign to attract investors (nothing wrong with that), BUT with a product that is deliberately just not viable enough so that you're pretty sure that no investor will actually join.
When none joins, "oh damn we don't have enough to go ahead and start production, too bad, bye".

Hopefully I'm just too negative.

[LabSpokane]

If so, then *you* need to explain why so much money has been spent thus far on industrial design, marketing, and prototyping. I know energy fraudsters. I meet them professionally. The ones that take the money and run do not spend money like this.

I really hope you're right.
Personally when I see someone is able to find just the right balance between BS claims and proper ones to get people to follow... I tend to believe they're just as capable of finding the same balance of just spending enough to appear legit while pocketing the rest. And their situation does sound a bit like that to me. Base a whole solid business plan on stirring things up and getting initial funding from a crowdfunding campaign to attract investors (nothing wrong with that), BUT with a product that is deliberately just not viable enough so that you're pretty sure that no investor will actually join.
When none joins, "oh damn we don't have enough to go ahead and start production, too bad, bye".

Hopefully I'm just too negative.

I, too, believe they have far too little money to fully execute their commitments, but I think there will be at least some evidence of the effort on the way.

This whole matter is so disappointing because it would be fantastic to see all the effort and money that has gone into this be used for a product that is really good and will meet the maker's claims.
--------------
ETA: I do think you and everyone has a right to be very skeptical of a new energy claim. There are so many bad ones, that it's hard to be anything else.

I have erred on the side of trying to see he good that there is to be learned from Batteroo's campaign. I hope there is a young Turk out there who can glean what was done so well and apply it to a great product.

[Fungus]

The ones that take the money and run do not spend money like this. They pocket it all instead.

My prediction: They'll spend all the VC money on high living and when it runs out they'll announce they can't deliver any Batterisers.

They'll blame Big Battery/EEVBLOG's hate campaign for this failure (it prevented them from getting that big contract they needed!)

[Fungus]

ETA: I do think you and everyone has a right to be very skeptical of a new energy claim. There are so many bad ones, that...

That's not the reason. Not even close.

The reason we're skeptical is because we the laws of physics tell us what energy is available. We can put a percentage figure on the efficiency of all our energy sources. Hard numbers.

eg. Imagine somebody tells you than can make a solar panel that produces 10x more energy than existing panels.

In that case you can look at the efficiency figure for existing panels and if that number is higher than 10% then the new claim HAS TO BE BULLSHIT. You don't even need to investigate or listen to the theory behind it. The only way it can be 10 times better is if they also managed to increase the output of the sun.

And ... if a new energy does come along it won't be hidden behind smoke and mirrors like Batteriser. It will be very clear it works.

They also won't need any 'investors' or 'venture capital' to get it off the ground. people will be fighting to give them money long before you or I even hear about it.

[Kilrah]

In that case you can look at the efficiency figure for existing panels and if that number is higher than 10% then the new claim HAS TO BE BULLSHIT.

So if someone came and showed a panel that demonstrably had doubled the efficiency of existing ones it would have to be BS just because there's too much of a gap? Come on, that makes no sense.

Here the issue is that there is just nothing that can be improved the way they say they can.

[Fungus]

So if someone came and showed a panel that demonstrably had doubled the efficiency of existing ones it would have to be BS just because there's too much of a gap? Come on, that makes no sense.

I didn't say that.

Big jumps towards 100% are obviously possible.... but extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence. Very big jumps had better come with some independently reproducible measurements.

A corollary of this is that if Batteriser worked as claimed they'd be handing out free samples. They'd want people to try for themselves. That fact that they aren't doing this is just another big red flag.

[drussell]

So if someone came and showed a panel that demonstrably had doubled the efficiency of existing ones it would have to be BS just because there's too much of a gap? Come on, that makes no sense.

No, Fungus is correct.  If solar panel "X" converts 25% of all of the solar energy (all radiation including heat, light, etc.) it receives into electrical energy and someone says they can improve that by 10x, it is impossible.  (Making the panel 10x the size doesn't count.)  It would have to be converting 250% of the energy it receives from the sun.  How exactly is it going to do that without increasing Sol's output by 2.5x?? 

[Kilrah]

Ah yes of course, I actually misread a part of his post:

In that case you can look at the efficiency figure for existing panels and if that number is higher than 10%

I read that as meaning that "if the difference between the efficiency of existing panels and the new one is more than 10%".

I don't think anybody would dare claiming a 10 times improvement on anything though, even the Batterizer doesn't

[Fungus]

I don't think anybody would dare claiming a 10 times improvement on anything though, even the Batterizer doesn't

They claim 80% of that.

[uwezi]

I don't think anybody would dare claiming a 10 times improvement on anything though, even the Batterizer doesn't

Exactly, even in the beginning Batterizer only claimed an 8x improvement 

[EEVblog]

I really hope you're right.
Personally when I see someone is able to find just the right balance between BS claims and proper ones to get people to follow... I tend to believe they're just as capable of finding the same balance of just spending enough to appear legit while pocketing the rest. And their situation does sound a bit like that to me.

The difference is this isn't a couple of guys in a garage, there is a huge VC firm backing them, and they have big reputable names on their board of directors. Heck, one of them is the former president of K-Mart. To think they are going to "run off" with a lousy $300k or whatever is ludicrous. Bob himself got something like 2-3 times this payout when his last company booted him out (that's public record as has been posted on here)

Of course that doesn't mean it's going to work. It is fairly clear that they are in a world of trouble with delivering with just the funds raised from IGG. But if they do fail to deliver in some way, it won't be because their plan was to just not deliver from the get-go

[ccs46]

How exactly is it going to do that without increasing Sol's output by 2.5x?? 

Make the cells thinner and pack more cells in there, more layers.

[ccs46]

Of course that doesn't mean it's going to work. It is fairly clear that they are in a world of trouble with delivering with just the funds raised from IGG. But if they do fail to deliver in some way, it won't be because their plan was to just not deliver from the get-go

Not to mention the world of trouble they are in for falsely claiming certification.

[Fungus]

How exactly is it going to do that without increasing Sol's output by 2.5x?? 

Make the cells thinner and pack more cells in there, more layers.

Available Watts of sunlight per square meter is a fixed quantity. It doesn't matter how many 'layers' you put in a solar panel, you can't get more energy output than that.

[Wytnucls]

Korean SKTA is not really a big player in the VC California world. They haven't been around for more than a couple of years. They are focusing on reviving the Silicon Valley hardware business, instead of investing in software, like other VC companies. Batteroo is their first venture into the consumer product arena. By the look of things, not much 'energy' went into assessing the final product performance.
Up to one million dollars is allocated to each start-up, for an equity of 25%, with a revenue stream or acquisition within 3 years. Their overall initial funding was 10 million dollars in 2013.
They have 5 start-ups on their books (incubator space for 11), with, AFAIK, no return on investment yet (target 8~10%).
Incidentally, the tech start-up failure rate in California is hovering around 90%. The failure rate for VC-backed companies is still about 75%.
The odds don't look good for SKTA.

SKTA strategy:


http://www.inc.com/john-mcdermott/report-3-out-of-4-venture-backed-start-ups-fail.html
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jun/28/silicon-valley-startup-failure-culture-success-myth

[Fungus]

That doesn't add up to 100...