Covid 19 virus

[VK3DRB]

A friend who is trying to get his fiancee here from China for the past 3 years has had to fork out $40,000 so far due to the Australian government incompetence and this corona virus. That is another story in itself. My friend recently contacted senior immigration officials and they don't even know what is going on. Apparently the government immigration androids have just cancelled 30 partner visas (including my friend's) due to government bureaucratic incompetence and total lack of empathy. None of the partners had the virus and all were in quarantine elsewhere. Therefore, the victims have to go through the whole process again in getting a visa which will take another few years, and no doubt have to hand over another $6K for another application fee - and that is after the sanctions are lifted. It is shameful the way my friend and his partner have been treated by the Australian federal government.

[Zero999]

Going by historical reports, this isn't as bad as Spanish flu, which was far more deadly. I imagine if this happened 30 or so years ago, there would be loads of old people saying they've seen worse and it's bonkers. One of the reasons the Spanish flu had a greater impact might have been the population was in generally worse health, as it came after the war, so we can't compare it to that.

At first I thought this is all crazy and the world has gone mad, but now I think this might be all necessary. We don't know as much about covid, as we do about common flu. It seems to have a higher death rate and is just as contagious. I'm not worried about my own health, because I'm sure I'll survive it, but my parent's are in their 70s. My mum, has had two stokes in the past, is in recovery from surgery on a brain haemorrhage and my day has asthma and a colostomy bag, so it could be very serious for them. Another issue is this could affect the following generation. Children born to mothers with Spanish flu or who caught it when they were very young tended to do poorer in school. We don't want to risk have increased levels of learning disability in the future, so it's better to be overcautious, than do nothing at all.

I think culture and upbringing could also be factors. I'm currently off work because I have a cough, which normally wouldn't bother me. I've been told throughout my life not to be a wimp and call in sick because I'm mildly unwell. When I was at school I won various awards for attendance. I went for four years without being late or off sick and won a crappy prize for it: some book vouchers which I never used.

People are helping one another out. I went out in the front garden this morning to bury some food waste (strongly recommended, if you have a garden: if you don't have room for a compost heap, just bury it in the border). My neighbour stuck her head out of the door and said "I notice you have a bad cough" I said "Yes, that's why I'm off work, keep away from me!" and she said "Well if you need any shopping done for you, don't hesitate to ask" I said "Thanks". It did make me feel happy, but probably won't take her up on her offer as my parents will go shopping on Saturday and I'll ask them to pick up a few things for me. Obviously, I'll ask them to drop them off outside the house and I'll give them the money through the letterbox, to minimise contact.

[iMo]

Another Lesson Learned from this situation is the US and EU should return production of some materials, chemicals, equipment and other important goods back to US and EU.

It has no sense to have production sites in Far East just because the production costs are ie. 4x lower, and when really needed you have to pay 50x more for it, moreover, you cannot get in time and in the amounts required.

Every government at least in EU is complaining today "we don't have this and that handy as it is produced in Far East and to get something off there is difficult, or, it costs you an arm and leg today".

These kind of pandemics will repeat much more often in the future with a similar scenario, so we have to be able to produce the stuff at home.

[Zucca]

Before this thread will be locked for obvious reasons, this is my last post here.

Just stay home as much as you can and avoid contact with others persons.

I am done. Good luck you all!

[flyte]

Just stay home as much as you can and avoid contact with others persons.

Couldn't agree more, it is the only effective solution for now. Not to protect just yourself, it's mainly to protect others. Now let's hope people really get this.

[migry]

Not sure if this is the correct thread.
Any idea what the situation is for JLCPCB?
I have used them 5 or so times in 2019, and was likely to have some more PCBs made this year.
I did a quick check and there is nothing about the current situation on their website.
Are they working as normal, reduced capacity, or closed down?
I guess the same question applies to other Chinese businesses. Are the closed down or ploughing on?

[Stray Electron]

Yes I'm familiar with this, but why are we so lax about the flu when it kills so many thousands so predictably every year?

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu. 

   Why are you, a Briton, so concerned with the US?  FYI, uninsured sick people in the US DO go to the hospital and get treated so the same as everyone else. Even illegals get treated. Go look at the stats for the number of births in the LA and California hospitals. 70 to 80% of all of the births there are to illegal and uninsured mothers.  If someone can't pay upfront the hospitals will try to collect payment after they leave the hospital but usually unsuccessfully and after that they simply write the cost off.  Most hospitals in the US have well over 50% non-paying patients. It's one reason why our hospitals are perpetually underfunded. It's also why paying patients and insurance companies are charged ridiculous charges for even the most minor of actions, the $5 for a cotton ball for example.

   Hospital payments isn't the problem here, the problem is that the US (and no other country) simply doesn't have nearly enough beds, staff or equipment to handle the predicted number of patients.

[SerieZ]

Because the majority of people in the US can't afford to go to hospital for the flu.  It would bankrupt them.  So they don't.  The "sweat it out" and pass it on hoping they can get away with it.  Most of them probably have to go to work because if they take a day off they don't get paid, take 2 off and they most likely get fired.

I never quite understood why people believe this?
While not on a Federal Level, most US States have laws that the employer must provide sick leave and even those who dont most have an arrangement with their employer anyways.
It is always the people who have never lived in the US and/or hold a steady Job who make up these claims... same with healthcare. 

The only thing that the US does different than Switzerland, to my knowledge, is that Switzerland forces you to get healthcare (if you dont have one you cant get a job) to prevent the dummies to fall flat on their faces. And I have lived in Spain and Germany (periods longer than 2 years) to know that their "holy" Universal Healthcare system sucks compared to the Swiss and probably the US.
 

You are confusing paid medical leave ( I was home for a week and still got paid ) with medical bills.

How about bad migraine, you take an over the counter pain killer, you have weird sensation, you call ambulance, they take you to hospital, doctor looks at you for a minute, gives you one injection, and after half an hour your're ok and you go home. A week later you get bill from a hospital for 6500 USD for "services rendered".
I had medical, so they sorted that out.  That is how it was around 1999-2000 in USA. And medical didn't mean dental. You had to get that insurance extra, so you don't have to pay few hundred USD for a minor repair on a tooth.
I don't know how Obamacare works now, but it used to be, basically, you die or pay. Or they treat you and than you go bankrupt.

In Switzerland depending on your franchise you pay up to a certain amount out of your Pocket (between 500 - 2500USD/year) and for everything uninsured (dental is an option) (by your choice) after that the Private Insurance covers it. There is no state involved there except that it forces you to get one if you want to be employed.
I know for a fact most americans have an Insurance as well and it is a similar Situation for them. The Problem is with those who cant afford it or are too Ignorant to get an Insurance there with, IMHO the latter being the bigger Problem thus maybe creating the need to make it mandatory like here.

Our Hospitals offer better Service than anything I have ever seen outside Switzerland and I am pretty sure US Healthcare is the best money can buy
.
The fact that most medicine gets developed there speaks for itself.

And this is something the entire world benefits from and unfortunately until we are not is some Star Trek like post scarcity world it has to be payed for by someone.

People painting the US or Swiss Healthcare system as some kind of Hellscape ignore this in such an incredibly dishonest manner to, my guess, further their own Political views, and not have a constructive discussion about it the same way certain people just cant talk about this pandemic without trying to further their own political goals and playing the blame game.
Yes, some people get left behind but is the alternative really better overall? Definetly not for the ones working in the sector and especially not for Innovation.

To wrap things up... until I see a better, more productive alternative I rather get ill here than to wait for months on treatment or sitting in an overcrowded hospital with poorly payed and overworked personal.

[DrG]

JAMA Interview with T. Fauci from yesterday

https://youtu.be/EXY76TKNy2Y

From the description:
Topics discussed in this interview:

Have you ever seen anything like this? (0:22)

Can we channel the current level of panic in the US to help mitigate this crisis? How can younger individuals contribute during this public health crisis. (2:30)

Sensitivity of testing. Is there any new data? (6:24)

NSAIDs (non steroidal anti inflammatory drugs)  - should they be avoided? (8:37)

ACE and ARBs (10:25)

Any new information on children? (14:13)

Respiratory spread versus droplets. Are there concerns about the viability of the virus on surfaces and packages? (15:11)

Hydroxychloroquine (17:43)

Recommendations for health care workers (18:48)

For the health care work that tests positive, when are they able to return to work? (21:08)

Any emerging data about Antivirals (22:22)

What should the next 2-3 weeks tell us? (24:11)

Health equity - will supplies be equally distributed? (27:00)

Is there anything more that local, state, and federal governments must do? (28:27)

Coronavirus Resource page from the JAMA Network: https://ja.ma/covidyt

[Stray Electron]

Going by historical reports, this isn't as bad as Spanish flu, which was far more deadly. I imagine if this happened 30 or so years ago, there would be loads of old people saying they've seen worse and it's bonkers. One of the reasons the Spanish flu had a greater impact might have been the population was in generally worse health, as it came after the war, so we can't compare it to that.

    That's not true, you can compare that but you need to allow for the local conditions in each area and account for them separately.  The US and Canada for example had no fighting on their own soil so the civilian populations were largely unaffected by the war so it's easy to see the statistics there for healthy people vs unhealthy people (civilians) that were trapped in a war zone (such as in Belgium).  There were also a number of neutral countries that had healthy populations.  One of the big factors in the death rates was the density of people in some areas due to the war. In the US some of the hardest hit areas were the army training camps in Kansas, yet they had unquestionably the best fed and healthiest men in the entire country.  The densely packed front lines and military bases in Europe were also hit hard, as were all of the large cities world wide. Again you can look at the rates for rural Texas and for the large densely packed army bases that were in Kansas and you can clearly see the differences.

[Cerebus]

Our [Swiss] Hospitals offer better Service than anything I have ever seen outside Switzerland and I am pretty sure US Healthcare is the best money can buy
.

...I rather get ill here than to wait for months on treatment or sitting in an overcrowded hospital with poorly payed and overworked personal.

So which is it, Swiss hospitals are the best, or overcrowded with "poorly payed and overworked personal"? You claim that people are making points for politics sake, yet you contradict yourself - which tends to be the mark of someone arguing from conviction rather than from fact i.e. politically.

Anyway, this whole fuss about the US healthcare system arose from a very minor point about flu vaccination. Let's all please keep to the topic at hand and not get sidetracked further. Yes, it is inevitable that political issues come up in a discussion about a world-wide epidemic and various countries response to that but let's try and keep the mindless, divisive side-taking out of it.

[Mr. Scram]

"Our country is burning down but yours is burning down more!"

[Mr. Scram]

Look at South Korea, Hong Kong and Vietnnam.

The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.

Good like in thinking that with extensive testing the number of asymptomatics will drive down the mortality. Yes, it will, but by a point or two - you will still end up with a figure ten times more deadly than the ordinary flu. If anything, this is comparable to the Spanish (or should I call it Kansas?) flu. The big difference being that we have the same mortality with 21st century technology.

What to do is shown by the countries above.
Lockdown, early testing, isolation, disinfection.
Convert industries to produce masks and respirators (there is money to be done there, if you are a capitalist) - they did it in China, South Korea, Japan, and now Italy and the US (with the Defense Act)

But most importantly, learn some math (even basic math) and stop playing this down.

Testing is only a small part of the puzzle and due to the incubation time and non symptomatic patients it's unlikely to be the silver bullet. Important differences between Italy and South Korea are that Italy has an unusually old population and South Korea a young one. We've all seen the statistics how age impacts susceptibility. Another factor may be that Italians are heavy smokers whereas only a small percentage of South Koreans smoke.

Statistics are easy to misread, especially when you're in a panic. Add a sizeable serving of confirmation bias and it's a dangerous recipe when not handled with care. We need to carefully look at the statistics we see you use and post so little as that's the only thing that can get us out of this situation.

[coppice]

The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.

Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style). Look for local environmental issues. Many of the people who died of SARS in HK lived in one corner of one tower, due to a broken sewer pipe that was letting the infection spread in that spot. The cruise ships had so much trouble with coronavirus, because they didn't learn from this, and missed how much central air cons would make things worse if people were trapped in their cabins. Some people saw that coming, but were ignored.

[coppice]

Another factor may be that Italians are heavy smokers whereas only a small percentage of South Koreans smoke.

I guess you haven't been to South Korea.

[Mr. Scram]

I guess you haven't been to South Korea.

I'm trying to find the numbers I refer to but I'm now seeing different numbers. I may be mistaken there. The age groups are definitely distributed differently in both countries. Italy has almost twice as many people over 65.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_structure

[SiliconWizard]

The low mortality rate in SK is linked to the high level of testing but not because of a statistical artifact, it's because by testing early they can isolate the infected before they can get in contact with the more fragile portion of the population.
How do I know it's not an artifact (provided the strain is the same as in Europe)? Because the number of deaths in certain parts of Italy show that there are ten times more deaths than in previous years. This data is public. Today there were army trucks in Bergamo to take the corpses away. This is not something that you see every flu season. As a matter of fact, nobody still alive today has ever seen that.

Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style).

Yup.
Unfortunately, we have taken a completely different approach in most of Europe (although apparently Germany has managed to do a lot more testing than the others.)
It was even defended for a while that generalized testing was useless. Guess what - we just didn't have enough test kits anyway and no capacity in the short term to have more, so the rationale was convenient. Sad stuff.

[vodka]

Coming from a govt agency, it is estimated that 6300 deaths can be attributed to flu in the 2018-2019 period in Spain. Covid toll seems above 600 now.
The difference is that the press said nothing last year, and the previous, and ....

The previson of deaths to a year is about 300.000 .  More o less the number of deaths of the last Civil War(Counting the KIA's , civil deaths and the represion by boths factions). Furthermore, about 15-20% shrink of gross domestic product, like a country in conflict.

Source: Roberto Centeno
http://www.alertadigital.com/2020/03/19/el-economista-roberto-centeno-calcula-que-el-coronavirus-terminara-provocando-en-espana-300-000-muertos-y-30-millones-de-infectados/.

Program  17/03/2020 "La voz de Cesar Vidal- En la economia que se fue"

https://youtu.be/JpJZKPzG9DQ

[Zero999]

Going by historical reports, this isn't as bad as Spanish flu, which was far more deadly. I imagine if this happened 30 or so years ago, there would be loads of old people saying they've seen worse and it's bonkers. One of the reasons the Spanish flu had a greater impact might have been the population was in generally worse health, as it came after the war, so we can't compare it to that.

    That's not true, you can compare that but you need to allow for the local conditions in each area and account for them separately.  The US and Canada for example had no fighting on their own soil so the civilian populations were largely unaffected by the war so it's easy to see the statistics there for healthy people vs unhealthy people (civilians) that were trapped in a war zone (such as in Belgium).  There were also a number of neutral countries that had healthy populations.  One of the big factors in the death rates was the density of people in some areas due to the war. In the US some of the hardest hit areas were the army training camps in Kansas, yet they had unquestionably the best fed and healthiest men in the entire country.  The densely packed front lines and military bases in Europe were also hit hard, as were all of the large cities world wide. Again you can look at the rates for rural Texas and for the large densely packed army bases that were in Kansas and you can clearly see the differences.

Yes, I think you have a point there. The Spanish flu also seemed had a proportionally higher mortality rate in young healthy adults, than covid and other viruses, because the strong immune response also damaged healthy cells.

[james_s]

But most importantly, learn some math (even basic math) and stop playing this down.

I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed. At that point I can't afford to go to the doctor if I have a medical problem and neither will many other people. Emergency rooms cannot refuse treatment but they will be flooded with people and even though they can't refuse treatment, they can still send you a huge bill that will go to collections. If enough dominoes start crashing down clinics will start closing, research labs will shut down, manufactures producing all kinds of goods will close, imports of critical supplies and materials will stop, people will not be able to get food, medicine, shelter, electricity, heat or other essentials and people will die. If you're not familiar with the Great Depression of the 1930s you should look it up because the effects were catastrophic and lasted many years, it took a massive world war to pull the US out of that slump. It seems to me that you are advocating panic to the extent that we just shut everything down indefinitely regardless of the impacts and completely ignoring the fact that doing that could easily lead to huge numbers of deaths. Like I said already, if you don't prioritize keep flying the plane (keep the economy going) then it will crash and all the passengers will die, making your heroic efforts to solve the problem at hand irrelevant.

An interesting article I came across discussing the current state of things:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

[Mr. Scram]

I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed. At that point I can't afford to go to the doctor if I have a medical problem and neither will many other people. Emergency rooms cannot refuse treatment but they will be flooded with people and even though they can't refuse treatment, they can still send you a huge bill that will go to collections. If enough dominoes start crashing down clinics will start closing, research labs will shut down, manufactures producing all kinds of goods will close, imports of critical supplies and materials will stop, people will not be able to get food, medicine, shelter, electricity, heat or other essentials and people will die. If you're not familiar with the Great Depression of the 1930s you should look it up because the effects were catastrophic and lasted many years, it took a massive world war to pull the US out of that slump. It seems to me that you are advocating panic to the extent that we just shut everything down indefinitely regardless of the impacts and completely ignoring the fact that doing that could easily lead to huge numbers of deaths. Like I said already, if you don't prioritize keep flying the plane (keep the economy going) then it will crash and all the passengers will die, making your heroic efforts to solve the problem at hand irrelevant.

An interesting article I came across discussing the current state of things:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Without wanting to start a political debate about the merits of various systems the various degrees of social welfare in Europe will likely blunt that issue. No country has infinite resources but people getting by while and until the world recovers and they do too eliminates a lot of unnecessary hurt. Cooperation will also go a long way as countries aren't hit equally hard simultaneously so resources can likely be diverted and pooled. As long as food is being produced and basic necessities are met a secondary catastrophe is averted.

[coppice]

I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed.

If the economy crashes everyone is screwed. No economy == no food, heat and other essentials for most of us, however much money we might have. That's why isolation measures can only be pushed so far.

[tinhead]

No country has infinite resources

normally i would say "no, US can print as many Dollars as they wish", but now with Covid-19 they will have soon no paper anymore, or toilet paper will be more worth than Dollar ^^  that means i agree with you, this time.

[james_s]

I understand math quite well, that's not the issue here. If the economy crashes because everyone is panicking and my income falls to $0 and I can't find work again, I am screwed.

If the economy crashes everyone is screwed. No economy == no food, heat and other essentials for most of us, however much money we might have. That's why isolation measures can only be pushed so far.

That is essentially what I was getting at, it's not just me that is screwed but everybody. The #1 priority needs to be keep the economy going because if that all comes crashing down then everything else is moot.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/coronavirus-will-bankrupt-more-people-than-it-kills-%E2%80%94-and-thats-the-real-global-emergency/ar-BB116Wlf

[Nominal Animal]

Countries in East Asia are getting used to waves of infection, and they've learned what works and what doesn't. They've had SARS, and bird flu, and swine flu, and MERS and they are getting used to epidemic management. Finding the infected quickly, and isolating them is a big win (i.e. test as soon as someone realises they might have an issue, SK style).

As a westerner, my own appreciation of Chinese efforts is about exactly that.  I've not talked about anything else, only considered the (forced) isolation efforts.  It is increasingly looking like those efforts are what is needed to minimize both human lives lost, but also the financial impact, of this pandemic.
(In particular, I have not considered what happened in Nov/Dec 2019, with early whistleblowers, et cetera.)

Here in Helsinki, Finland, there is a suprising number of people who simply ignore any recommendations for social isolation. (I mean, they go out with friends to have fun, and thus endanger those who have to interact with others to keep the society going.) It seems stupidity will prevail even over a pandemic.

The Finnish numbers are a complete lie, by the way: only some "special" patients get to be tested.
They say this is because of lack of resources for testing, but considering there are Finnish companies exporting millions of these tests, and while the testing stations need trained people to run the tests, we have had weeks to crash-course a few dozen specialists to help with that.. we just have chosen not to, because our leaders have more important things on their mind than a pandemic.