Covid 19 virus

[SiliconWizard]

One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.

[Mr. Scram]

Yeah, I thought we nailed this "it's just like the flu" bullshit, but denial is powerful. It's like trying to argue with Flat Earthers. Fortunately, world leaders are taking it seriously, even if it takes a week or two to get through the initial shock. The fact there is no community immunity to Covid-19 makes it completely and different to seasonal flu. It's a really moronic comparison.

People waiting for "all the facts" before taking it seriously will find health systems totally overwhelmed well before they see people near them dying. This is NOT about individual risk but society. What people don't realise is that health systems assume that 99.99% of the population are healthy enough not to need critical care. Better not need any critical care in the near future, there will be a very long queue.

And now cue more denial in 3..2..1.. 

You really need to strip what is actually said of all nuance to get to where you suppose we are.

[Mr. Scram]

[mzzj]

One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.

And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
Smoking might explain part of it. 

[iMo]

On the positive side, even if the results are still few and preliminary, note that Chloroquine is currently giving hope.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-announces-potential-game-changer-drugs-treat-covid19/story?id=69693560

"Those are two that are out now, essentially approved for prescribed use," Trump said of the antiviral drug Remsdesivir, which has never been approved by the FDA for any disease, and the drug chloroquine, which has only been approved to treat malaria and some arthritis -- neither is approved for COVID-19.

"And I think it's going to be very exciting. I think it could be a game changer. And maybe not. Maybe not, but I think it could be, based on what I see, it could be a game changer. Very powerful, they’re very powerful," he said.

Joking apart, the Remsdesivir is currently tested on a pretty critical covid patient in Prague..

[Mr. Scram]

I feel a large part of the reason some people get upset by comparing COVID-19 to a regular flu is that they may severely underestimate the actual impact of the flu. People may view it as a disease which you sit out which is true in many cases, but don't really consider the millions of patients and many thousands of deaths every year despite considerable efforts to combat it. COVID-19 isn't compared to the flu because it's nothing. It is compared because of many similarities and our experience fighting it, though there obviously are relevant differences too.

[nctnico]

I feel a large part of the reason some people get upset by comparing COVID-19 to a regular flu is that they may severely underestimate the actual impact of the flu. People may view it as a disease which you sit out which is true in many cases, but don't really consider the millions of patients and many thousands of deaths every year despite considerable efforts to combat it. COVID-19 isn't compared to the flu because it's nothing. It is compared because of many similarities and our experience fighting it, though there obviously are relevant differences too.

I don't get why you insist on denying the major difference between the flu and Covid19. Covid19 causes pneumonia / ARDS which requires a far more extensive treatment compared to the flu. Sure flu kills people too but in most cases these are people who are already weakened and thus are close to death anyway. OTOH Covid19 also seriously affects healthy people due to the pneumonia / ARDS. This shouldn't need explaining with all the information already presented.

[Kleinstein]

The Spanish flu some 100 years ago was pretty nasty and devastating - let us hope it does not get that bad. So it depends on which flu season one compares. A big difference with the flu is that at least the medical personal is usually vaccinated. So treatment in the hospitals is much easier - much less personal and masks needed. Still the death toll from the regular flu can be pretty high, but it is largely unnoticed as is does not overwhelm the medical system so easy. Most of the years the flu shot is pretty effective so the spread is slowed down and limited.

[thinkfat]

One intriguing point is the fact children seem not to be affected by this virus - or so lightly that it goes unnoticed.

And guys die 4 times more likely to it compared to women based on Italian data!
Smoking might explain part of it.

This was also theorized about the imbalance in women vs. men in critical condition in Wuhan. Smoking appears to be a predominantly male treat in China.

[thinkfat]

This will be an interesting walk on the razors edge. If we suppress the spread too much, we'll likely have a second wave in autumn and winter again. I don't think we'll have a vaccine by that time...

[Mr. Scram]

I don't get why you insist on denying the major difference between the flu and Covid19. Covid19 causes pneumonia / ARDS which requires a far more extensive treatment compared to the flu. Sure flu kills people too but in most cases these are people who are already weakened and thus are close to death anyway. OTOH Covid19 also seriously affects healthy people due to the pneumonia / ARDS. This shouldn't need explaining with all the information already presented.

I just discussed lungs being affected differently a few posts ago. COVID-19 doesn't seem to affect healthy people on a significant scale. Younger healthy people don't fall very ill or have something which looks a lot like a regular flu with a nasty cough. The vast majority of serious cases and deaths are in China were the 70 plus age bracket and people with pre-existing conditions. Western numbers seem to show similar patterns. There are exceptions as there are with flu. When people do get seriously ill they can need ventilation which indeed is a difference.

[Mr. Scram]

This will be an interesting walk on the razors edge. If we suppress the spread too much, we'll likely have a second wave in autumn and winter again. I don't think we'll have a vaccine by that time...

We don't want to slow it to flu like speed either as that facilitates endless loops of infection. Not that we really have to worry about that now.

[Muttley Snickers]

Up until a couple of years ago I rarely if ever got sick or even caught a cold but last year I was struck with the flu and suffered terribly in isolation for a few weeks. I tried everything at the time including Tamiflu but couldn't shake it off and really don't want to go through that experience again.   

I already have heart disease, vascular disease and respiratory problems so am not looking forward to catching this new virus at all. Unfortunately the people around here still don't seem to understand as they continue to attend at the local supermarket like it's an opportunity for a social gathering.          

[Mr. Scram]

Look at the silver lining.
If you catch  it, you would not die of it. You will be registered as "dead due to pre-existing conditions".

Because that's the line of reasoning in the countries that are still in denial.

As a side note, the US is gonna see a spike in deaths for obesity.

I'm not trying to contradict what you say, but I'm striking out when I look for exact definitions. I find reports phrased in the style of "the majority of COVID-19 deaths are tied to pre-existing conditions" which suggests those are counted. Can you point me in the direction of sources which show otherwise?

[Simon]

Up until a couple of years ago I rarely if ever got sick or even caught a cold but last year I was struck with the flu and suffered terribly in isolation for a few weeks. I tried everything at the time including Tamiflu but couldn't shake it off and really don't want to go through that experience again.   

I already have heart disease, vascular disease and respiratory problems so am not looking forward to catching this new virus at all. Unfortunately the people around here still don't seem to understand as they continue to attend at the local supermarket like it's an opportunity for a social gathering.          

Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.

[Cerebus]

COVID-19 doesn't seem to affect healthy people on a significant scale. Younger healthy people don't fall very ill or have something which looks a lot like a regular flu with a nasty cough.

That doesn't agree with the actual facts. The 30 year old age bracket is seeing a hospitalization rate (regular beds, not ICU) at least 10 times that of a regular flu season (Covid-19 hospitalization rate 20-29 yrs 1.2%, 30-39 years 3.2%). I think that requiring hospitalization qualifies as falling very ill.Furthermore 5% of those hospitalized age 20-29 will require ICU treatment.  I've gone 60 years without needing to be hospitalized for any flu, or other infection and I'm a bloody asthmatic - prime fodder for a hospital bed and I've had regular seasonal flu several times. This is not your regular flu, it is considerably more serious and is hospitalizing people who would normally shrug off a seasonal dose of flu with a week off work at home.

[rdl]

In 1998 I came down with something, probably some variety of flu, that was very bad. For 3 days I could barely breath or get out of bed. I dreaded needing to pee. I was a 2+ pack a day smoker. On the fourth day it seemed to break. I woke up feeling a lot better. I could get up and walk around okay. Of course, not having had a cigarette in days, one of the first things I did was go out on the balcony for a smoke. The first drag nearly killed me. I literally fell to the ground gasping for breath. I never smoked again.

[iMo]

Look at the silver lining.
If you catch  it, you would not die of it. You will be registered as "dead due to pre-existing conditions".

Because that's the line of reasoning in the countries that are still in denial.

As a side note, the US is gonna see a spike in deaths for obesity.

I'm not trying to contradict what you say, but I'm striking out when I look for exact definitions. I find reports phrased in the style of "the majority of COVID-19 deaths are tied to pre-existing conditions" which suggests those are counted. Can you point me in the direction of sources which show otherwise?

When you look at the recent Italian statistics on fatalities I posted above you may see the covid19 does not kill you actually, but those "pre-existing conditions".. There is a detailed list with % in Italy as of March 17th.
Deaths without any PECs are rare actually.
Obesity usually implies diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular, respiratory, etc. all those are mentioned in that report as the killers.

PS: https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2972926/#msg2972926

[nctnico]

Look at the silver lining.
If you catch  it, you would not die of it. You will be registered as "dead due to pre-existing conditions".

Because that's the line of reasoning in the countries that are still in denial.

As a side note, the US is gonna see a spike in deaths for obesity.

I'm not trying to contradict what you say, but I'm striking out when I look for exact definitions. I find reports phrased in the style of "the majority of COVID-19 deaths are tied to pre-existing conditions" which suggests those are counted. Can you point me in the direction of sources which show otherwise?

When you look at the recent Italian statistics on fatalities I posted above you may see the covid19 does not kill you actually, but those "pre-existing conditions".. There is a detailed list with % in Italy as of March 17th.
Deaths without any PECs are rare actually.

But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?

[Mr. Scram]

That doesn't agree with the actual facts. The 30 year old age bracket is seeing a hospitalization rate (regular beds, not ICU) at least 10 times that of a regular flu season (Covid-19 hospitalization rate 20-29 yrs 1.2%, 30-39 years 3.2%). I think that requiring hospitalization qualifies as falling very ill.Furthermore 5% of those hospitalized age 20-29 will require ICU treatment.  I've gone 60 years without needing to be hospitalized for any flu, or other infection and I'm a bloody asthmatic - prime fodder for a hospital bed and I've had regular seasonal flu several times. This is not your regular flu, it is considerably more serious and is hospitalizing people who would normally shrug off a seasonal dose of flu with a week off work at home.

Equating hospitalization for flu and Covid is likely to lead to skewed results. People are used to flu but extreme caution was and is taken with Covid. Add to that the likely large number of unreported cases and the hospitalization rate becomes a very loose number. We'll likely learn more about the actual rates or at least better estimates when thing have calmed down and things are looked at more carefully.

[iMo]

..But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?

These "5 younger ones" below could live another 30 years when treated properly in the Mayo Clinic, would it fit the semantic discussion?

To date (17 March), 17 COVID-19 positive patients have died under the age of 50. In particular, 5 of these were less than 40 and they were all male people aged between 31 and 39 with serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric pathologies, diabetes, obesity).

[Mr. Scram]

But now you are entering a semantic discussion which can be halted very simply by asking: how long would those people have lived if they didn't got infected with Covid19?

One can also ask how long they would have lived if they didn't have pre-existing conditions. Judging by the numbers the overwhelming majority would likely have been fine. This virus seems to bring any existing cracks to light. Regardless, it seems sensible to count them as Covid deaths but as far as I can tell that's happening.

[Someone]

I originally thought that it was no worse than flu, but I was wrong. It will obviously affect smokers much worse. Just watch this video of a young woman fighting for her life. No doubt if she didn't smoke, she'd be at home curled up in bed watching films.

COVID-19 affecting people with vulnerable lungs more than a regular flu doesn't seem disputed. Smoking does a number on pretty much everything in your body. It'd be interesting to see whether the statistics show that smoking in itself means being at increased risk from COVID-19.

Not much time/data for quality epidemiological works (that I could find), but a lesser quality reference to start with:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Cardiovascular disease isn't a death sentence when combined with COVID-19, but greatly increases the impact.

[Cerebus]

That doesn't agree with the actual facts. The 30 year old age bracket is seeing a hospitalization rate (regular beds, not ICU) at least 10 times that of a regular flu season (Covid-19 hospitalization rate 20-29 yrs 1.2%, 30-39 years 3.2%). I think that requiring hospitalization qualifies as falling very ill.Furthermore 5% of those hospitalized age 20-29 will require ICU treatment.  I've gone 60 years without needing to be hospitalized for any flu, or other infection and I'm a bloody asthmatic - prime fodder for a hospital bed and I've had regular seasonal flu several times. This is not your regular flu, it is considerably more serious and is hospitalizing people who would normally shrug off a seasonal dose of flu with a week off work at home.

Equating hospitalization for flu and Covid is likely to lead to skewed results. People are used to flu but extreme caution was and is taken with Covid. Add to that the likely large number of unreported cases and the hospitalization rate becomes a very loose number. We'll likely learn more about the actual rates or at least better estimates when thing have calmed down and things are looked at more carefully.

Aww c'mon. Do you really think that the criteria for "seriously ill enough to need a hospital bed" are going to be downgraded from an abundance of caution at a time when there is pressure on hospital beds?

I think at this point it's becoming pretty clear that you want to believe this to be less serious then it is and you're not going to be convinced by the pretty conclusive evidence that we've already seen that this is an order of magnitude more serious than seasonal flu.

Taking a reasoned, proportioned reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic, based on facts, is one thing. It helps no one if people's reaction to this gets out of proportion. Downplaying it to the point of near denial of how serious the situation is, is just as unhelpful in the other direction.

This is a disease with a basic reproduction number (R₀) of 2.3 at best current estimates. That means that without containment every person who is infected infects another 2.3 people. It has an overall case fatality rate of 1.2% on current best (age adjusted) estimates. Those two figures alone combine to make this serious. The (age adjusted) case fatality rate for seasonal flu is around 0.01% (typical year, western countries with good health care), R₀ for typical seasonal flu is 1.2.

[Muttley Snickers]

Yea, people crowding into shops are just stupid. I will be wearing a P2 dust mask next time and safety glasses if i have any in the house. i also have a couple of pairs of P3 filters on the way that had not sold out.

I have a welding mask, leather gloves, gum boots and an oil skin coat so might have to take the gas torch and flame nozzle as well to keep those sicko's at a safe distance.