Covid 19 virus

[Mr. Scram]

Just a thought - if the mask is virus-soaked then aren't those virii not in the person? Without the mask, they would have been breathed in, wouldn't they?

I feel the discussion suffers greatly from people dropping in and catching only half of what was discussed. Not that these people are to blame necessarily but it adds to the confusion. That remark was about infected people wearing a mask.

[PlainName]

They did not do a thing until French president Macron got furious and threatened to shut down the border with them.

Don't confuse the politicians (who are no doubt trying to balance several competing and incompatible requirements) with the people who just needed a bit of organisation from which to hang their selfless volunteering.

[Cerebus]

Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.

While that is sweet, charming and in its own way laudable, I rather wish the supermarkets would direct their efforts at keeping a supply of bread and potatoes flowing onto the shelves (which they are currently failing to do) than keeping enough hothouse flowers in the distribution chain to hand over to NHS staff. Maybe greet them with applause and a basket of fruit?

[Wallace Gasiewicz]

I am an occupational medicine physician.  As such I have I have
had responsibility for PPE and especially respirator programs.
Paper masks are not really "respirators", In no way are they adequate in situations in which OSHA requires respirators
Real respirators such as half masks and full masks need to be fit tested.
The user needs to be evaluated to see if they can actually use the PPE.
I do think that medical workers in high risk areas should have this protection since they are more at risk and if infected themselves, can infect others(sick patients) at high risk.
Paper masks are no where near respirators in my opinion. (However remember most real respirators do not have a filtered exhaust, only inhaled air is filtered)
That being said, any mask is probably better than none. It can prevent droplets from entering and a lot of droplets from being expelled.
Even a contaminated mask will do this. Even a decent homemade mask can help.
If everyone wore a mask it would at least decrease (not nearly eliminate) the infectious particles, droplets or whatever. It works on both ends, the person expelling and the person breathing in, if both people are wearing masks.
There are also downsides to masks, a moist mask is a good culture medium for lots of pathogens.
This mask controversy is a matter of degree of protection, not anywhere near absolute protection.
I do not now how many virus particles are necessary to establish an infection with this Covid virus.
Having said that reducing the number of virus particles you are exposed to will probably limit your chance of actually being infected or if infected, maybe a lower innoculum would mean fewer symptoms, there are apparently a lot of people who test positive without symptoms.
I do believe masks can reduce the degree of exposure along with common sense things like distancing and hand washing and not touching your face until you was your hands.

[Wallace Gasiewicz]

An infected person tugging at a virus soaked mask sounds like a great idea.

Just a thought - if the mask is virus-soaked then aren't those virii not in the person? Without the mask, they would have been breathed in, wouldn't they?

You both have very valid points.

[Cerebus]

I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.

Why do you need to wait for the Government? We didn't sit around waiting for the government here, last week some of my neighbours printed out some flyers with contact details asking if people needed help or if there were people who were prepared to offer help and posted them through everybody's letterboxes. One instant, self-organized community support group.

If you want to do something useful, do it now. Check whether you've got some vulnerable neighbours you could shop for. See if your local church/community groups are organising something and volunteer. Or copy my neighbours and start up a neighbourhood community support group if there isn't something already existing that you can join in. Just needs a phone number, email address, a computer printer and some shoe leather.

[Cerebus]

    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?

Oh, hold on, I see you've already answered that question.

I'll be happy for the rest of you not to wear a mask since it will leave more for me but given the choice I will wear one.

[drussell]

...there are apparently a lot of people who test positive without symptoms.

Do you have any references for this?  I'm sure some people test positive for SARS-CoV-2 virus exposure before showing any symptoms of the COVID-19 disease (especially with such a long and variable incubation period), whether they later develop symptoms and sickness progression or not, but I have not found any data with real numbers tracking this, how many really remain completely asymptomatic until their body learns to kill it off completely.

Also, while I keep seeing random claims that there are huge swaths of general population that have been exposed and fought it off without even knowing they had it, which would eventually lower the death rate once those asymptomatic cases are eventually discovered and recorded (from post-outbreak antibody screening, etc.) I cannot find any data supporting this claim.  The only data I can point to thus far actually suggests otherwise.

For example, the 320,000 tested in Guangdong was a rather wide sampling of the general population and they did not find a plethora of un-diagnosed cases among the general population once the initial wave was under control, suggesting that the number of true cases has not been underestimated there.

The same thing has essentially been showing up with our testing here in Alberta.  As of Friday we had tested 20360 people, anyone who has shown any possible symptoms or has been exposed to someone known to have the virus has been tested. To Friday, that was one test for every 215 residents. Only 195 cases were found, so less than 1% of those tested have actually been found to be infected.

This mirrors what was found in Guangdong, where it looks like no, it has probably not already spread as widely among the general population totally asymptomatically as some people are thinking. Now, of course, we haven't tested everyone but if we've tested a whole bunch of likely-to-be-infected people and found less than 1%, it doesn't seem to show there already being a huge undetected infected group that will eventually be found to push the death rate down by an order of magnitude.

Only time will tell.  Stay healthy, my friends!

[iMo]

About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.

The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.

As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

[Bud]

Take cues from celebrities.

[engrguy42]

I'm hoping the US follows suit. Then people like me can get off their arses and do something useful.

Why do you need to wait for the Government? We didn't sit around waiting for the government here, last week some of my neighbours printed out some flyers with contact details asking if people needed help or if there were people who were prepared to offer help and posted them through everybody's letterboxes. One instant, self-organized community support group.

If you want to do something useful, do it now. Check whether you've got some vulnerable neighbours you could shop for. See if your local church/community groups are organising something and volunteer. Or copy my neighbours and start up a neighbourhood community support group if there isn't something already existing that you can join in. Just needs a phone number, email address, a computer printer and some shoe leather.

Yeah, good point. I'm just of the mindset that if there's some overall organization of the efforts by folks who know what's important it might be more effective. If the government is involved and directing then they'd probably be aware of stuff like "hey, we need a gazillion retired doctors and other medical professionals to get back to work, and oh by the way it would be great if we could get a  zillion volunteers to help them (getting them meals, driving them around, etc)".

Personally, being one of them old boomer dudes, I'm very wary of getting too involved with a disorganized group that doesn't know all the necessary procedures to make sure we're all safe and not putting ourselves at risk.

Generally that's the ONE thing that governments can often do right

[engrguy42]

About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.

The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.

As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?

[Bud]

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

I've see a number of 16,000 ventilators for NY. If to assume each of the 3% critical patients in ICU will get one, an estimate of total cases will look like 500,000 or something?

[SiliconWizard]

Prince Charles is positive: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11216131/prince-charles-positive-coronavirus/

It is believed he suffered mild symptoms over the weekend while at Highgrove House in Gloucester and flew privately to Scotland on Sunday night where he was tested on Monday.
(...)
Charles most recently saw the Queen "briefly" on March 12.
Medical experts believe the earliest Charles would have been contagious was March 13.

She's lucky.

[PlainName]

Why do you need to wait for the Government?

I suspect he is envious of the British sense of humour also, but hasn't quite got it down pat.

Or maybe it takes one to know one.

[Cerebus]

About 20% isn't it? And an similarly small portion of those that will die even after treatment. If it were just those numbers one could be forgiven for considering the risk pretty low.

The trouble with this is that those 20% who would just have a bad time and recover only do so with the help of ICU. Once the hospitals run out of resources those 20% are going to be lucky to live. And they'll be taking non-CV patients with them that would ordinarily have survived whatever they're suffering from but now won't because there is no health service available to treat them.

As far as I know the percentage is much smaller for people <60 and probably a bit bigger for those over 70. That's of the known cases. It appears the total number is between 0% and 5% but that number is still being assessed.

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?

'Admitted to ICU' != 'died'

[SiliconWizard]

    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?

Oh, as I said earlier, I can understand the resource management and the priorities.
The small issue I see is the lie. Even if it's a white lie for the greater good, it's still a lie, and it's obvious that especially engineers will tend to call people on that.

[drussell]

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?

An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%

With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.

[dietert1]

The WHO predicts that within days USA will be the global hotspot of the coronavirus disease. I think all major TV channels should have prepared by now and start as soon as possible a strong educational effort to show and explain all aspects of how to DIY useful face masks and how to use them properly. Those programs should run all day instead of all the other nonsense. This way they should demonstrate their patriotism. Nodody should rely on some strange youtube video.

Regards, Dieter

[iMo]

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

I've see a number of 16,000 ventilators for NY. If to assume each of the 3% critical patients in ICU will get one, an estimate of total cases will look like 500,000 or something?

As I can remember from the briefieng gov Cuomo wants 140.000 beds with ~30.000 ventilators in the apex of the curve which comes in 21 days.
PS: he suggested the ventilators may move together with the pandemic wave accros US, thus the other states will lend their ventilators to NY first, and so on.. He offered he will organize that movement in person.

[engrguy42]

NY gov Cuomo reported 3% of positive tested landed in ICU as of today [CNN: NY gov briefing].

Isn't that consistent with what WHO has been posting all along in their daily Situation Updates? 3-4% of all confirmed cases end up in deaths?

An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%

With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.

Oh yeah...the "knock 'em down a peg guy".

Note to self: "STOP FOLLOWING THE CHAT FORUM !!!" 

[gerts]

If it hasn't been mentioned before (i've only read of small fraction of these posts), I'm finding Dr. John Campbell's channel on youtube to be an excellent resource for current COVID-19 info.

https://youtu.be/HJlLVpJu7ZQ

[drussell]

The WHO predicts that within days USA will be the global hotspot of the coronavirus disease.

They already are.  There are now already more confirmed, active, unresolved cases in the US (over 59,000) than anywhere else in the world, including Italy, and most of the US isn't even close to catching up with testing, let alone really trying to contain the spread.

I think all major TV channels should have prepared by now and start as soon as possible a strong educational effort to show and explain all aspects of how to DIY useful face masks and how to use them properly. Those programs should run all day instead of all the other nonsense. This way they should demonstrate their patriotism. Nodody should rely on some strange youtube video.

You would think so, yeah, but that is not at all the way the USA works anymore.   

Unfortunately this is going to cost many lives and cause unprecedented levels of unnecessary turmoil.  I guess hopefully in the end it will help some people to come to their senses and emerge from the fog, stirring some level of desire for some fundamental changes, because this was all entirely predictable...

[Cerebus]

    In every previous medical situation, the medical professionals have recommended using masks but now that the hospitals are short, suddenly they're telling everyone else NOT to use one and that suddenly they're ineffective.  Seriously?  Or are you just trying to keep all of the masks for yourself and your medical colleagues?

If, IF, that is true, so what? Who better deserves a supply of protective equipment if it's in short supply? The people on the front line risking their lives to help others or the general public?

Oh, as I said earlier, I can understand the resource management and the priorities.
The small issue I see is the lie. Even if it's a white lie for the greater good, it's still a lie, and it's obvious that especially engineers will tend to call people on that.

Except there's no evidence to point to a lie. That's why the "If, IF," qualification. And frankly, I don't think a bunch of engineers who hadn't heard of "basic reproduction number" or "case fatality ratios" two weeks ago, some of whom think that you culture human viruses in bacteria in a Petri dish, or can't tell the difference between a virologist, an epidemiologist or a general practitioner, or think that Kreb's cycle is something that you pedal, and probably think that xenic technique is something to do with how you handle foreigners, are best placed to make the judgement whether it's a lie or not.

[drussell]

An inaccurate, naïve, crude CFR would currently be 19784/441187 = 4.48%
The upper bound (based on known actual outcomes worldwide thus far) is currently 19784/131717 = 15.0%

With the exponential growth, 3% of cases already being in ICU spells disaster for New York.

Oh yeah...the "knock 'em down a peg guy".

Note to self: "STOP FOLLOWING THE CHAT FORUM !!!" 

Is that your way of saying that given the current trends, you believe New York will be fine?

Oh, my...

I cannot believe the number of people everywhere, apparently just sticking their heads in the sand, trying to mumble "LA LA LA LA LA  I Can't Hear You!  LA LAA LAAA," with sand in their mouth....