Covid 19 virus

[Simon]

In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.

In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.

This is the spirit we like to see.

Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.

Really?? That's wonderful.

I dunno, I've grown up with a huge respect for the people in the UK. Y'know, "stiff upper lip" and all. They always seemed to be the "adults in the room" while the rest of the world is flailing around. Not sure how it's been in recent years, but it's good to see that they're yet again a role model. 

Not anymore. We have a dual pandemic, the virus itself and stupidity. The government are pretending that if they tell people what to do they will do it and we are different and don't need any of this lockdown rubbish but reality is plenty of people are not being sensible.

At work the shop floor staff take the piss that us office people get to work from home whilst not all of them are being sensible. When they all get it together and we have to close us office bods that have it easy will be the ones continuing to work from home whilst the nut and bolt assemblers will be at home having it easy.

They created a company wide whtsapp group and in two hours had to close it due to the stupidity going around on it. They were so stupid that it took 1 in 20+ 2 hours to figure out that management were in the group too...... That's your stiff upper lip brits.

[iMo]

Social distancing slows down the virus outbreak, yet it causes lots of other damages. It can only be an emergency measure.

Let's see what happens next in China. I guess people in the west should learn as fast as possible how make and properly use masks. Western media should contribute in that effort. Also western leaders should give a good example and use masks. How can anybody seriously propose to loosen shutdown and not tell people at the same time they will have to wear masks whenever they leave their house. I am not talking about those simple medical masks. Everybody will need a pile of fitted masks so there is a fresh one whenever you need it.

Regards, Dieter

Waiting for a pile of fitted masks is like waiting for Godot..

PS: China produces around 120mil/day of the simplest "surgical" masks (optimistic estimate, it is 12x than in February)). Let assume they will increase 5x, that is 600mil/day. That is half of Europe's and US' daily consumption. Imagine the logistics as well..

[not1xor1]

That said, what looks sort of weird is that the slowdown seems correlated with the date the confinement officially started, whereas due to the incubation time, we would expect a longer latency...

Well, yes, that's why i waited for some days before starting to get my hopes up.
Also, containment measures in lombardia and veneto (the most afflicted regions at the time) started about 3-7 days before national scale containment was enacted.
I expect there to be a slow down and then another rapid rise, because there was the mass of people from southern italy living in the north that panicked and returned in mass to the south before they could effectively restrict public transport

In the long run the graphs per region will show several bells, with those from the south having the peak at least 30 days after the ones from the north, delaying the end of the emergency.

The uncontrolled exodus was mostly caused by the usual FUDsters spreading the news of the northern lock-down while it had not yet been decided and so nobody could organize the due controls.

Pls check: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#By_regions
I think new cases figures will stay around 100-200/region with daily fluctuations and then get lower in 1-2 weeks.
Apulia seems to be on the right track but it is too early to be sure.

[Simon]

Apulia or Puglia as I knew it when I lived there apparently has people being stopped even from town to town to see if their journey is necessary although my friend lies to get through so that he can go and eat at his parents. It's also a very insular and rural area so even with many people going about their daily work providing they do sensible things at shops.

Here I see shops starting to implement distance queuing and limited amounts of people in at one time because us more intelligent stiff upper lip just carry on blitz spirit brits are just too stupid to stay 2m apart and not crowd into shops.

[not1xor1]

On Dr Wolfgang Wodarg, I assume is this guy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Wodarg#Public_appearance_in_the_2020_COVID-19_crisis

I don't think he is absolutely wrong.  I'm not a doctor.  I think he has some valid points of false positives and normal "flu season" noise getting picked up in the numbers.   Actually worth listening to for a different point of view.

just have a look at this article to have an idea about how much that a*e is wrong:
The real death toll for Covid-19 is at least 4 times the official numbers

While of course that is just a piece of data, that's true for a small town and we cannot be sure how much that's apply that applies to all the various regions of Italy or to the whole country, yet it gives an idea that only an idiot can think there is an overestimation of deaths.

[Zero999]

In the UK the government launched a helpline were people could volunteer to help the NHS take care of the vulnerable in the community.

In a single night, 250,000 people signed up overshooting the target considerably.

This is the spirit we like to see.

Additionally supermarkets are allowing NHS staff in early and greeting them with applause and flowers.

Really?? That's wonderful.

I dunno, I've grown up with a huge respect for the people in the UK. Y'know, "stiff upper lip" and all. They always seemed to be the "adults in the room" while the rest of the world is flailing around. Not sure how it's been in recent years, but it's good to see that they're yet again a role model. 

Not anymore. We have a dual pandemic, the virus itself and stupidity. The government are pretending that if they tell people what to do they will do it and we are different and don't need any of this lockdown rubbish but reality is plenty of people are not being sensible.

At work the shop floor staff take the piss that us office people get to work from home whilst not all of them are being sensible. When they all get it together and we have to close us office bods that have it easy will be the ones continuing to work from home whilst the nut and bolt assemblers will be at home having it easy.

They created a company wide whtsapp group and in two hours had to close it due to the stupidity going around on it. They were so stupid that it took 1 in 20+ 2 hours to figure out that management were in the group too...... That's your stiff upper lip brits.

It's brought out the best, as well as the worst in people. The government have been inundated with volunteers to help out with this emergency.

Move along...nothing happening here...just some facts to inject.

FWIW, here is my summary of today's (March 25) WHO report on the 8 countries with the highest COVID19 deaths to date.

Here's where the US stands:

- Remains #6 in total deaths to date.
- #4 in new deaths since yesterday's report
- #3 in confirmed cases to date.
- #6 in confirmed cases as % of total population.
- #8 (last place) in total deaths to date as % of population

Ok. All true enough.  I don't understand what point you're trying to make, though.

They are also:
- #1 in active, unresolved cases.
- #1 in new confirmed infections per day
- #1 in speed of rise in cases since first 100 detected
(the slope of the line is almost right on the doubles-every-2-days line, surpassing Italy and Spain)

Within the next 48h they will also become the country with the highest number of total confirmed cases.

The number of deaths as well as cases is likely to be underestimated, because some people die at home. There will also be lots of people who will indirectly killed because they're suffering from other illnesses and can't be treated because all the beds are taken by COVID-19 patients.

Although rare, it can kill young, previously healthy patients. A 21 old, previously healthy women was recently killed by Covid-19.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52041709

[not1xor1]

Apulia or Puglia as I knew it when I lived there apparently has people being stopped even from town to town to see if their journey is necessary although my friend lies to get through so that he can go and eat at his parents. It's also a very insular and rural area so even with many people going about their daily work providing they do sensible things at shops.

Here I see shops starting to implement distance queuing and limited amounts of people in at one time because us more intelligent stiff upper lip just carry on blitz spirit brits are just too stupid to stay 2m apart and not crowd into shops.

In Italy, like in most countries there are more sensible people who abide by the rules (that serve one's own health), and others that, out of utter ignorance and stupidity, just do not care. The proportion of those is likely different in every country, but as soon as some people they know dies, those latter may change their attitude.

I get out as few times as I can (usually once or twice a week) with the only FFP3 mask left from the stock I bought one year ago.
There are not so many people around. But even in the really short time I was out I witnessed various display of pure idiocy like a 40-50 y-old woman who took off her mask to kiss a young man (may be a relative who'd just arrived from north Italy ?) and so on.

The problem is that those idiots may survive and still kill other people who do not deserve that (e.g. health care staff).

[Simon]

the government forgets that they expect us to keep working. I'd have limited time to volunteer. The largest amount of people available to volunteer might just be the people the government have screwed over with their half arsed economic measures. Hopefully these are all genuine volunteers and not people that will flake out ass soon as they are actually asked to do something.

My main concern is remaining virus free so that I can get food and medicine for my dad.

[iMo]

..While of course that is just a piece of data, that's true for a small town and we cannot be sure how much that's apply to all the various regions of Italy or to the whole country, yet it gives an idea that only an idiot can think there is an overestimation of deaths.

Decades back I had the pleasure to spend a couple of years with doctors implementing an IT system for them (a "decision support system"). The doctors were the authorities, mostly senior experts, working for governmental bodies. The first thing they do when evaluating data is they are searching for "outliers" and they kick out the "outliers" from the data set without any long discussion. Then they create the statistics. The outliers were related for example to mortality (a highly sensitive topic today), not to "zener diodes with the knee a bit off". Guess how they will evaluate the 2020 pandemic in Europe.

[VK3DRB]

This virus highlights the wealth gap between the haves and have-nots.

Here is a solution to isolating the homeless in London, Melbourne and many other cities infested with foreign ghost property owners. The government takes over the empty apartments owned by foreigners to be used for the homeless until the virus is no longer a threat. No compensation to the owners. In Melbourne there are around 80,000 permanently empty apartments and houses owned by mostly foreigners, many of whom are just hiding money here.

It was reported in the media the landlords are crying poor and want assistance from the taxpayer if people cannot pay their rents. A handout cash splash for landlords will likely happen because most of the politicians are housing investors, and they always agree unanimously on any legislation that feathers their own nests. The renters who lost their jobs need supporting, not greedy f%#king landlords.

[Nominal Animal]

The renters who lost their jobs need supporting, not greedy f%#king landlords.

Or, put in more neutral terms (so even money-oriented politicians understand), landlords are not risking their investment, only a fraction of their return on investment, whereas most of the renters are at risk of homelessness, because they cannot work and get paid, and thus are having difficulty paying their rent.  We take care of the renters, and the landlords get theirs too automatically (and will not lose even that fraction of their returns).

[Simon]

This virus highlights the wealth gap between the haves and have-nots.

Here is a solution to isolating the homeless in London, Melbourne and many other cities infested with foreign ghost property owners. The government takes over the empty apartments owned by foreigners to be used for the homeless until the virus is no longer a threat. No compensation to the owners. In Melbourne there are around 80,000 permanently empty apartments and houses owned by mostly foreigners, many of whom are just hiding money here.

It was reported in the media the landlords are crying poor and want assistance from the taxpayer if people cannot pay their rents. A handout cash splash for landlords will likely happen because most of the politicians are housing investors, and they always agree unanimously on any legislation that feathers their own nests. The renters who lost their jobs need supporting, not greedy f%#king landlords.

Indeed in the UK the government has moved to protect big business first. Self employed people still do not know where they stand and the 80% for employees no doubt comes with fine print like the company being ordered to close (I have not read it).

I was not amused at the language I saw in a BBC article. While the government was willing to spend £2.4M daily on purchasing private hospital facilities at the going commercial rate they were willing to requisition hotels. After the stink kicked up by all of us at the private sector profiteering the government have done an "at cost" deal with the private health sector. We still do not know how much that is and I am sure it is bound in confidentiality as the private healthcare companies hardly want to expose how much they are making out of the devastation to the national service which encourages people to pay to see the same doctor privately and get given tea and biscuits too...

The homeless indeed have a problem. But the government have never given a toss about the homeless.

[Muttley Snickers]

After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask. I expected it would be a quick process and intended to maintain a safe distance but when their computers went offline I suddenly found myself stuck in a close proximity queue for thirty minutes more than I would have liked.

Note to self: Don't count on the competence of others.          

[not1xor1]

After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask. I expected it would be a quick process and intended to maintain a safe distance but when their computers went offline I suddenly found myself stuck in a close proximity queue for thirty minutes more than I would have liked.

Note to self: Don't count on the competence of others.          

can't you do that online?

[Zero999]

In Italy, like in most countries there are more sensible people who abide by the rules (that serve one's own health), and others that, out of utter ignorance and stupidity, just do not care. The proportion of those is likely different in every country, but as soon as some people they know dies, those latter may change their attitude.

I get out as few times as I can (usually once or twice a week) with the only FFP3 mask left from the stock I bought one year ago.
There are not so many people around. But even in the really short time I was out I witnessed various display of pure idiocy like a 40-50 y-old woman who took off her mask to kiss a young man (may be a relative who'd just arrived from north Italy ?) and so on.

The problem is that those idiots may survive and still kill other people who do not deserve that (e.g. health care staff).

At least in that case, he's statistically speaking got more chance of surviving than her, but he might infect his parents or grandparents who don't stand a chance, especially if he still lives with his family, which I know is often the case, especially in areas where property prices are high.

Clinicians are having to make some difficult decisions. There are plenty of people who they have to leave to die because they stand a lower chance of survival, than relatively young and fit people who have this. If there's only one intensive care bed available, yet two patients who badly need it: someone in their 90s and another in their 40s, doctor will give it to the person in their 40s, who stands a higher chance of survival, dose the older patient heavily with morphine and allow them to die. This will be very difficult for anyone working in a hospital to deal with.

[Muttley Snickers]

After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....

can't you do that online?

Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad.   

[iMo]

After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....

can't you do that online?

Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad.   

Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same.. 

[Siwastaja]

One great thing in Finland right now is that mostly, maybe except for some limited areas in very central Helsinki, we live sparsely, compared to any large European city (let alone New York ). Even in our typical 100k people cities, you can pretty much take a walk without having to face too many people on the way, and can easily maintain two meters of distance all the time. This is why we are unlikely to see full-blown curfews here; it's enough to limit people actually gathering indoors (or dense outdoor activities), but we have enough sidewalk space, not to even talk about the forests.

[paulca]

After spending an entire week at home and away from other people I fucked up today by going to the local post office to pay the phone bill without taking a mask....

can't you do that online?

Yeah, I probably could have but I was starting to climb the walls and wanted to check out the nearby supermarket as well to see what the stock levels were like. I was also out of fresh fruit and vegetables and had a mad craving for a big salad.   

Imagine 9mil New Yorkers will do the same.. 

Reminds me of the local public transport companies advert slogan they put up on roads.

You aren't stuck in traffic, you ARE traffic.

[Cerebus]

Mr.Scram,
How often do you wear a proper equipment?
You sound very well versed in the art.
Please share your personal killer tips as a professional.
I am just curious, because I wear P100 respirators, sealed goggles and FFP3 masks on a daily basis.  Maybe I have been endangering myself all this time?
Thanks for your help with this matter.
Leo

I feel we're going round in circles. The issue is that people don't have the proper training and discipline. They are likely to tug at infected masks and display more risky behaviour.

While you're being sarky with Le Scram, do you wear PPE on a daily basis in an infection control setting, or just an industrial one? If the later, are you assuming that your expertise in one area automatically transfers to the other?

Believe it or not there is a difference. If you're wearing a mast to protect you from non-toxic dusts, or solvents and the like, or protect a clean room from you, you generally don't do to great lengths to avoid touching contaminated parts of the mask, gloves, gowns and goggles. Also you don't treat them as a strict single use item - e.g. You'll take a mask off on leaving a hazard area and then re-use it on entering. I can say that in industrial settings I've rarely encountered situations where a full set of PPE is donned, used for 15 minutes and then all disposed of, with the procedure repeated immediately as it would be for a different patient in an infection control situation.

For the record, I've been trained to use PPE (including respirators) in industrial settings and in a microbiology lab (a relatively low risk environment as one is not usually deliberately culturing serious pathogens, but one takes precautions because one might accidental culture serious pathogens). All bets are off at the moment because with a beard I'm not going to pass a fit/leak test for a respirator anyway. I can personally attest that practice in the two arenas is quite different.

Here's a version of just the recommended removal procedure when using PPE in an infection control setting:



Original PDF HERE

[SiliconWizard]

One great thing in Finland right now is that mostly, maybe except for some limited areas in very central Helsinki, we live sparsely, compared to any large European city (let alone New York ). Even in our typical 100k people cities, you can pretty much take a walk without having to face too many people on the way, and can easily maintain two meters of distance all the time. This is why we are unlikely to see full-blown curfews here; it's enough to limit people actually gathering indoors (or dense outdoor activities), but we have enough sidewalk space, not to even talk about the forests.

Yep - clearly that's where there is a huge difference between regions/countries. In northern countries, density is usually a lot lower, people also tend to keep to themselves, they don't like to sit too close to others in public transports, etc.

Italy is one example of almost the complete opposite.

[Cerebus]

The number of deaths as well as cases is likely to be underestimated, because some people die at home.

Although it might take a little bit longer to feed into the statistics (or might not at the moment), those deaths are still recorded.

Around here, if you don't get a doctor to sign a death certificate (which is officially recorded by the local coroner) and just bury the body in the back yard they tend to start a murder investigation.

Top tip. If you want to bump someone off at the moment, use a method that mimics pneumonia^*. Chances that you get caught are slim to none. 

^* No, I am not going to tell you how. Yes, your boss is a horror, but don't you think homicide is a bit of an extreme response to no pay rise for two years and a lot of unpaid overtime?

[SiliconWizard]

Top tip. If you want to bump someone off at the moment, use a method that mimics pneumonia^*. Chances that you get caught are slim to none. 

^* No, I am not going to tell you how. Yes, your boss is a horror, but don't you think homicide is a bit of an extreme response to no pay rise for two years and a lot of unpaid overtime?

 
Don't give people such ideas.

[Kasper]

Canadian govt has planned to give extra money to everyone with moderate to low income with kids and $2000 / month for 4 months to people who are out of work because of covid.

BC, Canada govt made new rule that tenants cant be evicted for not paying rent. They are also paying $500/month to landlords if their tenants say they are losing money because of covid.  Standard rent is $1000 - $2000 / month.

I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.

Neither my wife nor myself get any free covid money but we expect to pay more taxes soon.

[iMo]

Canadian govt has planned to give extra money to everyone with moderate to low income with kids and $2000 / month for 4 months to people who are out of work because of covid.

BC, Canada govt made new rule that tenants cant be evicted for not paying rent. They are also paying $500/month to landlords if their tenants say they are losing money because of covid.  Standard rent is $1000 - $2000 / month.

I think my neighbors had a small party yesterday to celebrate.

Neither my wife nor myself get any free covid money but we expect to pay more taxes soon.

Hmm..