Covid 19 virus

[DrG]

I was reading an interesting article (in between watching incredibly inane movies) in which they examined survivors of the 1918 H1N1 flu....

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07231.epdf?referrer_access_token=Vyn0JX8ce0UgpEObeHFQStRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0P-hTGufxokLlBSmytyWfowCBsIVSdopVCDwpHmGqSqgSpMTiaOy5uudcYMA-3xwzy2H0dmCINd2usthdi276xFB3RwVayCiOwfUGCdYmAKoAgJPH2dr6MkMueG7oH3FX9yZbqSr4DZDklhIDpK7VcPjwoqT0vXzB32vEM54CXbbI4OHTvQGMsKWUirc9P7GTEd9rh7ZKpWjxhl7uc286eBpRo7vvcPnCnuGLHzDDiY84Fd4XimeF8XEqXy8TOPXYg%3D

Here we show that of the 32 individuals tested that were born in or before 1915, each showed seroreactivity with the 1918 virus, nearly 90 years after the pandemic. Seven of the eight donor samples tested had circulating B cells that secreted antibodies that bound the 1918 HA.

I am not an immunologist, but it seems clear that there was plenty of "memory" for the virus left.

But, look at this article investigating 2009 H1N1: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016809

Vaccination of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) was effective. However, about half or more recovered patients and vaccinated persons might have lost sufficient immunity against the recurrence of the viral infection after half a year.

Having a biological "memory" of the infection event is not the same thing as "sufficient immunity", but I am confused by the differences.

I'm anxious to see what we will see with SARS-Cov-2. Has anybody seen published immunity data? All I see are test development and suggested rapid deployment tests e.g., https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1

[drussell]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/world/europe/coronavirus-italy-bergamo.html

It's behind a login wall in order to harvest e-mail addresses to spam. Can you paste the relevant part of the text?

Try opening it in a private window.  That works here in Firefox.

[drussell]

...
looking for real numbers and perhaps a bit of hope.

You aren't the only one.  Stay strong, friend!

I realize that many people are trying to "make sense of it all," find some hope and comfort in this whole dreadful situation.  Personally, I find the most comfort in truthful transparency, facts and data, rather than trying to put a sugar coating on an inevitable reality.

My bottom line is that I wouldn't be surprised if the virus numbers (confirmed and total deaths) in the US worsened for the next 2-3 weeks, and started to flatten and decline by the end of April. And I wouldn't be surprised if the US total deaths go from the present 1,000+ to between 5,000 to 10,000 before they decline. FYI, at present, Italy has reported over 8,000 deaths, China (where it all started) over 3,000 deaths, and Spain over 4,000 deaths. So I personally won't be surprised if US gets to where Spain or Italy are right now in terms of total deaths, prior to a decline by end of April as the virus dies out like SARS, etc.
...
Present confirmed cases in US are probably around 80k, and if we assume a ballpark death rate of around 3% that means as a minimum we can expect an additional 2,000+ deaths, raising the total from the present 1,000 to 3,000.
...
So given all that, I personally won't be surprised if by end of April the US sees a total death rate about where Italy is today (ie, maybe something like 8x what the US total deaths are today, or somewhere between 5,000 to 10,000 total), and after that I'm expecting the virus to follow the path of SARS and other past viruses that kinda died out.

Obviously everyone wants to hope for the prevention of as many deaths as possible, everywhere.

The problem with doing simplistic extrapolating from the current numbers is you're not taking into account the exponential nature of the infections past the set of patients that today's outcomes represent.  You have to shift the outcomes back on the confirmed-infected curves to see the actual trajectory and make estimations based on that.  Here are a couple of examples, simply pulled from the latest raw JHU data (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19), with the known outcomes shifted back given what we know about average time-to-outcome, etc. and graphed:

[Bud]

I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html

[Zero999]

I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html

Unfortunately there are some cunts around.

Apparently it's now a criminal offence to threaten someone by claiming you have Covid-19 and coughing on them. It's say they've had to create new laws to deal with this.

[Mr. Scram]

I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html

It's a stupid thing to do and I understand the need to show there's no tolerance for these kinds of things, but that's still pretty harsh.

[Electro Detective]

I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html

More DESPERATE publicity stunts to keep the BS pumping.. as long as the market can bear   

[Mortymore]

I hope the fun was worth the pain.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163401/Man-48-spat-police-officers-claiming-coronavirus-symptoms-jailed-year.html

It's a stupid thing to do and I understand the need to show there's no tolerance for these kinds of things, but that's still pretty harsh.

I think he deserves time in jail. The police officer and probably other co-workers my have to be some time in quarantine and run Corona tests, not being able to work, and until the results came, preferably stay way from the family.

EDIT: Spanish police in action: https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/

[Mr. Scram]

I think he deserves time in jail. The police officer and probably other co-workers my have to be some time in quarantine and run Corona tests, not being able to work, and until the results came, preferably stay way from the family.

EDIT: Spanhish police in action: https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/

I don't disagree but a year in prison is a lot. It doesn't sound like much but it in all likelihood means losing your job, house and probably relationship and part of your support network. It's a life changing reset for most. Being stern with idiots isn't a terrible idea but heavy-handedly destroying even more lives doesn't sound appropriate.

[Bud]

Same can be said about heavy fines. Here under the Quarantine Act one can be fined up to $750,000. Tough times require tough measures, it is what it is.

[Mr. Scram]

Same can be said about heavy fines. Here under the Quarantine Act one can be fined up to $750,000. Tough times require tough measures, it is what it is.

Though times require effective measures. Being stern is one thing but utterly destroying people serves no one.

[Bud]

Finally found a good use for the Digikey bags! Put a Lysol wipe in it to make an emergency disinfecting pack that is convenient to carry in the pocket.

[nctnico]

I think he deserves time in jail. The police officer and probably other co-workers my have to be some time in quarantine and run Corona tests, not being able to work, and until the results came, preferably stay way from the family.

EDIT: Spanhish police in action: https://tabonito.com/o-meu-pai-da-te-dois-estalos-que-te-vira-policia-espanhola-detem-motociclista/

I don't disagree but a year in prison is a lot. It doesn't sound like much but it in all likelihood means losing your job, house and probably relationship and part of your support network. It's a life changing reset for most. Being stern with idiots isn't a terrible idea but heavy-handedly destroying even more lives doesn't sound appropriate.

If someone is idiotic enough to spit or cough on someone the person likely doesn't have much of a life to begin with. One of the people they sentenced to do jail time in the NL was a homeless person (he didn't die but is no longer homeless). Let's not forget that Covid19 is a potentially deadly decease; not something to make fun of. Especially when it involves public servants doing their best to keep the country clean and safe.

[tautech]

In my inbox from a mate:

News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection

All,

This is advice given to hospital staff.

This is an internal email for RBH staff: Virus detection COVID-19.
...........................................................
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/chat/covid-19-virus/msg2987192/#msg2987192

Stay safe guys.

[Kasper]

https://mobile.reuters.com/video/watch/idPqZx?now=true

Baton-wielding police in India have been filmed beating people breaking the coronavirus lockdown rules and making some offenders do physical punishments

[Mr. Scram]

If someone is idiotic enough to spit or cough on someone the person likely doesn't have much of a life to begin with. One of the people they sentenced to do jail time in the NL was a homeless person (he didn't die but is no longer homeless). Let's not forget that Covid19 is a potentially deadly decease; not something to make fun of. Especially when it involves public servants doing their best to keep the country clean and safe.

Running a red light poses a much more real danger and we don't lock people up for a year for that either. I'm not even suggesting to not do anything about such behaviour and understand that examples have to be made, it's just that we shouldn't go overboard. People are scared and emotional but that doesn't mean we should lose all common sense and proportion.

[hendorog]

I think you are dead right  (!)

Confirmed cases is a poor metric for comparison, as it depends on testing capacity - and contact tracing capacity to find cases to test based on known cases.
And there are many people who don't have symptoms - combined with people how have minor symptoms -so there could be big hidden clusters of people who are not tested.

Deaths are easier to count, but of course are delayed too much to be useful, impacted by the demographic and existing health conditions,, and impacted by the capacity of the medical system to treat people (ICU beds etc)

Comparing countries is not easy. Germany is clearly a big outlier. Perhaps they are awesome at testing and contact tracing. And so they have detected many more people with minor infections than other countries.

Personally, the metric I would use is the total number of deaths - for any cause. Compare with the same period of the previous years and, unless there is some other killer disease going on - it will give you a measure of how lethal this Covid-19 is.

Another metric is the saturation of hospitals and ICUs.

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but here is a tool I found which models the capacity and saturation of the health system:
https://neherlab.org/covid19/

[Muttley Snickers]

News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection.... This is advice given to hospital staff.... This advice explains how to prevent the virus.... So please share with family, friends and your work colleagues.

This is exactly the type of information I was after, many thanks.    

[Mr. Scram]

In my inbox from a mate:

News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection

All,

This is advice given to hospital staff.

This is an internal email for RBH staff: Virus detection COVID-19.

This advice explains how to prevent the virus. So please share with family, friends and your work colleagues

The COVID-19 infection does cause a dry and rough cough. The virus is typically first installed in the throat causing inflammation and a feeling of dryness. These symptoms can last between 3 and 4 days.

The virus typically then travels through the moisture present in the airways, goes down to the trachea and installs in the lungs, causing pneumonia that lasts about 5 – 6 days. Pneumonia manifests with a high fever and difficulty breathing. There may be a choking sensation. In this case, the doctor should be called immediately.

Experts suggest doing this simple verification every morning:
Breathe in deeply and hold your breath for 10 seconds. If this can be done without coughing, without difficulty, this shows that there is no fibrosis in the lungs, indicating the absence of infection.
It is recommended to do this control every morning to help detect infection.

Prevention:
The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C.
Therefore, hot drinks such as infusions, broths or simply hot water should be consumed abundantly during the day. These hot liquids kill the virus and are easy to ingest. Avoid drinking ice water or drinks with ice cubes. No ice with the rum lol
Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes.
WHY?
Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous.

The sun’s UV rays kill the virus and the vitamin D and zinc are good for you.

The Coronavirus has a large size (diameter 400-500 nanometres) so facemasks are needed in daily life. If an infected person sneezes near you, stay 10 feet (3.3 meters) away to allow the virus fall to the ground and prevent it from falling on you.

When the virus is on hard surfaces, it survives about 12 hours, therefore when hard surfaces such as doors, appliances, railings, etc are touched, hands should be washed thoroughly and/or disinfected with alcoholic gel. The virus can live nested in clothes and tissues between 6 and 12 hours. Common detergents can kill it.
Things that cannot be washed should be exposed to the SUN and the virus will die.

The transmission of the virus usually occurs by direct infection, touching fabrics, tissues or materials on which the virus is present. Washing your hands is essential. The virus survives on our hands for only about 10 minutes. In that time many things can happen, rubbing the eyes, touching the nose or lips. This allows the virus to enter your throat. Therefore, for your good and the good of all, wash your hands very often and disinfect them. You can gargle with disinfectant solutions ie Listerine or Hydrogen Peroxide, that eliminates or minimises the amount of virus that can enter the throat. Doing so removes the virus before it goes down to the trachea and then to the lung
Disinfect things touched often: cell phone, keyboard, mouse, car steering wheel, door handles, etc.

Stay safe guys.

When supposed hospital staff talks about a virus living one can't help to be very skeptical. How do we know this isn't one of the thousands of seemingly official chain mails being sent around?

[PlainName]

In my inbox from a mate:

Ah, a reliable source then.

News from Royal Brisbane Hospital on preventing and diagnosing infection

All,

This is advice given to hospital staff.

This is an internal email for RBH staff: Virus detection COVID-19.

Allegedly. According to your mate.

Ensure that your mouth and throat are always wet, never DRY. You should drink a sip of water at least every 15 minutes.
WHY?
Even when the virus enters water or other liquids through the mouth, it will get flushed through the oesophagus directly into the stomach where gastric acids destroy the virus. If there is not enough water, the virus can pass into the trachea and from there to the lungs, where it is very dangerous.

Oh dear. My missus tried that one on me the other day, and she didn't get it from Brisbane.

The BBC thinks not.

The virus hates heat and dies if it is exposed to temperatures greater than 27 degrees C.

No kidding? So the quick way to shaft it is to breath it in and hit it with your 36+C core temperature, right? Somehow, I think not

[maginnovision]

There was a similar one that told people to breath in air from a hair dryer since the heat would kill the virus. That email is garbage even if it doesn't mention hair dryers and has about a 2% chance of coming from a legitimate source. However you should keep hydrated since dry mucous membranes are more susceptible to infection.

[coppercone2]

https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/drill-powered-perestalic-pump-for-covid-patients/

[Mr. Scram]

https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/drill-powered-perestalic-pump-for-covid-patients/

We don't have enough sketchy ventilator ideas yet?

[tautech]

@ Scran and dunkem
Please accept the official advice from Boris.   

[nctnico]

There was a similar one that told people to breath in air from a hair dryer since the heat would kill the virus. That email is garbage even if it doesn't mention hair dryers and has about a 2% chance of coming from a legitimate source. However you should keep hydrated since dry mucous membranes are more susceptible to infection.

Agreed. Don't start spreading fake-news even if it looks legit. The best lie is close to the truth.