I suspect this scenario will be much closer to actual reality than any of us want to admit.
For both SDC and domestic robotics.
mnem
For a lot longer than any of us dare hope... 
don't think it will happen ever with the current hardware, a handful of cheap video cameras is a woefully inadequate sensor array for anything more than advanced driver assistance under near ideal conditions.
Tesla uses HDR cameras, so they are not that cheap or poor. And it works during poor weather conditions unlike existing cars with LIDAR.
https://support.google.com/waymo/answer/9858369?hl=en
Tesla uses HDR cameras, so they are not that cheap or poor. And it works during poor weather conditions unlike existing cars with LIDAR.
I drove my dad's Tesla around for about a week so I have some direct experience here. The cameras are nothing spectacular, they are essentially the same as the webcams built into a lot of laptops these days, quite good all things considered but they are still not anything exciting. They are vulnerable to dirt and debris, a passing vehicle that splashes up mud could easily cover one or more cameras. A viable system needs cameras and other types of sensors all operating together in order to be safe. I don't know how the Tesla system can ever be expected to operate in snow and even the breeze October days where the deciduous trees are shedding leaves all over the road could be a problem, or the days after a snow storm where the roads have been heavily sanded and the markings are obscured by sand.
Yep they’re pretty crap. Also If you watch the dash on a model S you’ll see how shit the cameras and recognition system is. It constantly mischaracterises objects around the car.
The cameras are nothing spectacular, they are essentially the same as the webcams built into a lot of laptops these days, quite good all things considered but they are still not anything exciting.
Not even close. Laptop cameras don't work in poor lighting. Nor they would work during the day due to poor dynamic range.
even the breeze October days where the deciduous trees are shedding leaves all over the road could be a problem,
FSD beta from last year, current version is much better
Not even close. Laptop cameras don't work in poor lighting. Nor they would work during the day due to poor dynamic range.
Mine works quite well, and it would work much better with the IR filter removed. Maybe a better comparison would be my security cameras, they are excellent as far as cheap cameras go and work in complete darkness with the aid of built in IR illumination as well as full summer sunlight, but they are still nothing compared to a human eye.
As I said, I've driven a Tesla (2020 Model Y), I put a couple hundred miles on it and played with the gadgets, I have direct experience sitting in the driver's seat and driving in real world conditions, I'm not just speculating based on youtube videos. Have you driven one?
As I said, I've driven a Tesla (2020 Model Y), I put a couple hundred miles on it and played with the gadgets, I have direct experience sitting in the driver's seat and driving in real world conditions, I'm not just speculating based on youtube videos. Have you driven one?
But I bet you hadn't driven with FSD beta, which is a completely different beast compared to regular autopilot. You are speculating based on driving a few hundred miles in a car without a technology enabled, and ignore anything else.
But I bet you hadn't driven with FSD beta, which is a completely different beast compared to regular autopilot. You are speculating based on driving a few hundred miles in a car without a technology enabled, and ignore anything else.
The car I drove had the "enhanced autopilot" feature which I believe is what you're referring to. It is capable of driving itself, and in my brief experience it does work quite well, but that was not nearly enough time to properly evaluate it. I didn't try driving it in snow and frankly I'd be afraid to. I didn't try driving it on a road that is flooded with an inch of water or covered in leaves or sand, I didn't try any edge cases. My whole point was regarding the quality of the cameras, they are not anything special, although even the most amazing cameras in the world are not going to be very useful if what they're trying to see is obscured. A viable system must have radar, lidar or some other technology in addition to cameras, cameras alone are not enough for a system that does not require a human driver to be ready to take over.
I would encourage anyone to watch the whole Tesla AI day event, including the Q&A at the end. It starts at 47min. Also there is cheezy dancing.
Really good detailed explanation of how FSD works including the problems.
According to Elon, public FSD beta will be released in about a month.
when science fiction becomes science fact we have trouble