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AI / Re: AI destroying economic system
« Last post by Siwastaja on Today at 12:22:38 pm »AI datacenters become overloaded with customers as they cannot maintain the ever increasing demand due to a shortage of low-nm silicon.
Price per token increases 10x and projects that were formerly viable become non-viable.
I was taking these seriously 6 months ago when the Claude API prices were high, Claude was slow, "rate limited" API errors occurred constantly (besides the actual 5-hour/weekly limits I never hit).
Now, while more and more users have appeared and AI usage has increased, not decreased, Claude API price has went down, it runs faster than ever, and has fewer outages than ever before.
I take this massive speed and smoothness as a proof that the resource spend has really gone down. (Price cut alone isn't a reliable proof because that's marketing; they could do it on loss, but I don't think they do.)
Cost regulates the usage; it does not prevent it. It's the same as coffee. Finland is #1 or #2 coffee consumer in the world, but a lot of the coffee went down the drain. Just make a liter of it, drink half of it, put the rest down the drain. When coffee price doubled or tripled (!), people just stopped pouring it down the drain.
Same with AI. I never understood what people actually do when they talk about spending their whole MAX20x plan weekly usage limits in a day, when I can't spend MAX5x usage limits.
If the question is about surviving and maintaining working software, the situation is totally different from the "oh fuck we have this new AI thing, crazy, let's try forking farm of 20 agents to work on this poorly thought out problem and then toss the results" madness that was all the rage in March 2026.
So I think the scalability / cost increase problem is a self-regulating. We get truly important work done, so we are not in any sort of crisis because of that. It might even be advantageous if it's a bit more costly and requires a bit more human regulation to choose what tasks we can afford doing.
That leaves your Taiwan invasion / TSMC scenario. It's basically the same scenario but on steroids: with no new manufacturing, the demand-supply curve is even harsher, so price increases / usage limits will be even stronger.
But clearly the current capacity serves current customers just fine. The core question is, how many new customers there will be? How much new software development capacity humanity still needs, and how expensive can it become until we regulate our software output?
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