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I'm loosing respect for Elon Musk... promises $1 rides in LA transit tunnels.
Posted by
BrianHG
on 18 May, 2018 17:53
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1$...
Enough already...
I'm beginning to lose respect for Elon Musk. He just keeps on going down more BS. Human carrying autonomous VTOL taxi drones are far more plausible in the near future than this.
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#1 Reply
Posted by
ataradov
on 18 May, 2018 21:14
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I don't get the outrage. He is not asking for public money, so he is free to do whatever, as long as city officials are on board.
Subway in LA is clearly not working. Maybe people don't want to be crammed as sardines in a tin can. So individual or low occupancy pods may be less efficient on their own, but will attract more people into public transport.
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#2 Reply
Posted by
Koen
on 18 May, 2018 21:28
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#3 Reply
Posted by
ataradov
on 18 May, 2018 21:30
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#4 Reply
Posted by
kerouanton
on 18 May, 2018 23:07
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#5 Reply
Posted by
james_s
on 19 May, 2018 01:14
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I don't get the outrage. He is not asking for public money, so he is free to do whatever, as long as city officials are on board.
Subway in LA is clearly not working. Maybe people don't want to be crammed as sardines in a tin can. So individual or low occupancy pods may be less efficient on their own, but will attract more people into public transport.
I haven't been down there in several years but when I've visited LA the subway/light rail seemed to be working very well. It was always fairly busy and I was able to get by without renting a car.
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#6 Reply
Posted by
ataradov
on 19 May, 2018 01:21
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Some stats from Wiki:
LA: Population: 3.976 million, number of stations: 93, Daily ridership: 359,016
Moscow, Russia: Population: 12.19 million, Number of stations: 245, Daily ridership: 6.992 million.
And Moscow is not the most advanced one, although it is up there. LA subway system is barely working compared to places where subways actually work.
It does work in a sense that it is functional, but it is far from convenient, and you see why after you've experienced better run subway systems.
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#7 Reply
Posted by
james_s
on 19 May, 2018 01:25
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Moscow certainly seems to have a better system, and probably a culture where more people are accustomed to using mass transit. I'm sure it also got off to a much earlier start, these things take a lot of time to build.
Given LA is practically the center of the American car culture I think their transit system is off to a good start. Last time I was down there they were expanding several of the lines.
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#8 Reply
Posted by
rx8pilot
on 19 May, 2018 01:27
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Thunderfoot is rather bright and I appreciate most of his videos - even the ones where I do not entirely agree.
In the case of the Elon Musk videos specifically....I cannot find much fault in his gripes. Elon is a dreamer and that should be celebrated. He does, however, go overboard taking ownership of other ideas as his own. He also glosses over massive engineering challenges as if they are trivial and low cost. I live in LA and have to deal with the traffic. The subway system works well and has been expanding continuously since it was originally started about 20 something years ago.
The bizarre thing is that people believe that you just dig some tunnels, toss in some pods, it all works, problem solved. How can anyone possibly believe this? A 3D tunnel matrix under LA? Seriously.....if it ever happens it will take $trillions and a century. It would be cheaper to pursue nearly any other concept short of teleportation.
At some point, the dream has to introduced to reality. In this case, you have engineering and economic realities that make the moon landings look like a child's science fair project.
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#9 Reply
Posted by
rx8pilot
on 19 May, 2018 01:29
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Some stats from Wiki:
LA: Population: 3.976 million, number of stations: 93, Daily ridership: 359,016
The LA metro area is 13 million. In real life, it feels even worse.
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#10 Reply
Posted by
ataradov
on 19 May, 2018 01:39
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There are three things that come to mind when comparing two systems:
1. Moscow is extremely cheap. Single ride is less than $1. 60 rides (1 month back and forth every day) is less than $25. Even considering income difference, this is very cheap.
2. Delay between trains. I have not been to LA subway during peak hours, but on a week day close to noon trains had like 10-15 minute intervals. The worst delay between trains in Moscow is like 5-7 minutes, averaging 2-3 minutes.
3. Strong enforcement of laws. There are very few homeless people in Moscow subway, and the ones that get in get promptly removed. Trash and urination on the stations is also not a thing (for the most part, there are isolated incedents, of course).
I'm not sure what contributes to the price of public transit in the US, but for me right now it is cheaper to commute by car than to buy a monthly pass to a light rail. I enjoy public transport, but if it includes the need to walk to and from the station, wait for 15 minutes for the train, and it costs more than gas, it is just stupid to pick it.
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#11 Reply
Posted by
rx8pilot
on 19 May, 2018 01:49
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The LA subway has barely grown out of its novelty stage - only within the past 10 years or less in my opinion. It works well, but the system is tiny compared to the actual challenge it faces. There are also some design oddities that force you to go the wrong direction for quite a distance to swap trains. This makes it take 90-120 minutes to take the train on a trip that you can drive in 60 minutes in the height of traffic.
It has taken decades and enormous amounts of money to accomplish this small and limited system. Elon will face the exact same challenges plus the drastically more sophisticated engineering and politics. If I had to guess, I would say that a huge percentage of the current subway riders do not have a car or the ability to afford one. The traffic benefit is close to zero. Until a form of transportation is faster from point to point....people will drive.
Elon's concept cannot beat the point to point time in his wildest dreams. Even if it is going 150mph, riders have to deal with getting to/from the entrance and exit nodes of the system.
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#12 Reply
Posted by
labjr
on 19 May, 2018 02:03
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Everything Musk has done runs on government subsidies. One guy called Musk a pseudo science bullshit snake oil merchant.
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#13 Reply
Posted by
Mr. Scram
on 19 May, 2018 02:15
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The whole channel looks like rants and beef he has with other people, including things written in HUGE FONTS and blaring colors. I've learned to stay away from things like these.
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#14 Reply
Posted by
EEVblog
on 19 May, 2018 03:10
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I don't get the outrage. He is not asking for public money, so he is free to do whatever, as long as city officials are on board.
I think the general outrage is more at the media who just gush over with praise at everything he says and does without a single ounce of doubt or critical thinking.
This tunnel would be more effective and fun if it was just a fast moving walkway.
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#15 Reply
Posted by
EEVblog
on 19 May, 2018 03:13
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It has taken decades and enormous amounts of money to accomplish this small and limited system. Elon will face the exact same challenges plus the drastically more sophisticated engineering and politics. If I had to guess, I would say that a huge percentage of the current subway riders do not have a car or the ability to afford one. The traffic benefit is close to zero. Until a form of transportation is faster from point to point....people will drive.
There have been plans for many decades in crowded cities across the world to get cars out of the city, and you drive your car to massive parking spot outside the city and then fast an efficient people movers (of whatever description) shuttle you in to were you need to go.
Elon's concept cannot beat the point to point time in his wildest dreams. Even if it is going 150mph, riders have to deal with getting to/from the entrance and exit nodes of the system.
Building this system for personal use cars in a city is doomed to failure.
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#16 Reply
Posted by
EEVblog
on 19 May, 2018 03:17
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when will youtube ban his video channel?
Why?
He can't express his opinion like
every single other person on Youtube?
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#17 Reply
Posted by
james_s
on 19 May, 2018 03:21
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If only all the major cities in the US had put in good mass transit back when building the infrastructure was relatively cheap before the city was all built out. Today driving in Seattle for example is an absolute nightmare, during rush hour it's not unusual for gridlock to occur where you'll sit an an intersection for 3 or 4 cycles of the light before you get to go. Cars turning right pile into the crosswalk and it's just an absolute mess. If we'd put in light rail 50 years ago when they started talking about it then we'd have a nice working system by now. I like driving my car but in a large densely populated city it's just not practical.
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#18 Reply
Posted by
rx8pilot
on 19 May, 2018 04:33
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There have been plans for many decades in crowded cities across the world to get cars out of the city, and you drive your car to massive parking spot outside the city and then fast an efficient people movers (of whatever description) shuttle you in to were you need to go.
A major impediment for any mass transit plan is that it has to be implemented and put into service without disturbing the current system. Digging underground seems like it would avoid that which moves us to the next major impediment....money. Tunnels are crazy expensive. Musk thinks you just get TBM and just drive it around making tunnels.
To be effectively faster/easier than the current congested freeway system filled with cars.....a city like LA would need enormous amounts of multilevel tunnels. Each entrance and exit needs easy on/off ground transportation to go the last couple of miles. Super clumsy even if it was a perfect implementation. Each tunnel needs a parallel tunnel for maintenance and emergency evacuation.
I think it would be cheaper and faster to build drones or hover cars.
My personal view is to just shut down Los Angles altogether. It is a horrible place and I have no idea why anyone wants to live here. I have been planning my escape for quite a while....just a couple of years and I am out of this hell hole. [complicated family logistics keep me from leaving right now]
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He is not asking for public money (...)
He's very good at that. He has managed to get a lot of public subsidies over the years without ever looking like he's asking.
We can't deny this guy is a genius businessman.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.htmlhttps://www.tesla.com/support/incentives(...) so he is free to do whatever, as long as city officials are on board.
Absolutely. (But just to make a point, having "city officials on board" means that he gets public money one way or another, even if it's indirect. Unless he pays for their time and for the infrastructure costs etc. that he's going to need for his project. Of course you may consider that he already pays with his tax money. But tax money is not necessarily supposed to help private companies grow. Well.)
This guy has become a star, so of course he gets a lot of media coverage. Doesn't mean you should listen to every little word he says.
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#20 Reply
Posted by
rrinker
on 21 May, 2018 17:21
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What's kind of sad is that the LA area was once home to one of the biggest mass transit systems around. Trolleys in downtown areas, interurban cars to reach out to the surrounding communities. Then GM offered buses for a price too low to pass up (it's been shown to be just an urban legend that GM bought the transit company and then purposely destroyed it, but they did sell buses for low cost to the city agencies). After decades of ridiculous traffic, it's coming full circle, with light rail, subway, and yes, even Elon's concept. Yes, LA is different than most East Coast large cities, because it is so spread out, but they used to have effective ways to get around that did not require millions of people to hop in cars and try to drive every day. Soon they will again. Other urban areas are following suit, returning to the past with modern takes on the old rail-based transit systems.
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#21 Reply
Posted by
Acecool
on 25 May, 2018 08:24
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Trains are really reliable.... Their tracks carry many tonnes of weight and continue serving for years or decades before needing maintenance... The initial cost will be high, but there are formulas we use every day to calculate wear and tear - for cars it can be $0.78 per mile or more, or less... Since the tracks won't be carrying massive amounts of weight, the meandering effect which bends the tracks over time won't be an issue, and since it isn't in soft soil its less of an issue too....
It is possible he could get the rides down this low - ALSO consider how much property rights he is gaining... If the system fails, he'll likely still own the rights to the tunnels unless they're leased by the city...
He could be willing to pay money for each person using the system - why would anyone do this? Because for each person who rides, he can collect data and data is where real money is in todays society... I'm sure there will be cameras galore, weight sensors, etc... He could be offsetting the fees by hoping some of FBIs most wanted will ride, he'll be able to give a real lead and get the reward money....
Honestly, its all possible... Besides, with the track concept cars can hop on, and there will be train cars too for pedestrian traffic ( this may be the $1 fee for a pedestrian hopping into a train car with 20 or more other people instead of the cars that ride along the tracks too although it could be both )... I didn't watch the promise...
Oh, $1 rides - he's likely getting a ton of Grant money which can offset the money so if he takes less money and takes a 'loss' some grants will make up the difference in the case of public transportation, humanitarian aide, historical preservation, and so on.... So it is entirely possible for it to be true..
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#22 Reply
Posted by
BrianHG
on 25 May, 2018 14:37
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I'm sure there will be cameras galore, weight sensors, etc... He could be offsetting the fees by hoping some of FBIs most wanted will ride, he'll be able to give a real lead and get the reward money....
Oh, come on, honestly, he is planing 30 minute flights around the world and starting his own private colony on Mars, you think he is gambling on making such a system to receive a pittance in money for a fugitive? He is making more than that every few hours just existing today. If not every few hours, at least every day or 2 of his life.
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#23 Reply
Posted by
Acecool
on 26 May, 2018 13:44
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There are so many ways to make money - I listed it there because it really wouldn't surprise me, and it wouldn't be hard to add facial recognition linked with government databases - even add automatic tattling to authorities with requests for the reward money for the tip....
It could be 100% automated depending how good the algorithm is, but honestly if he did a system like this he'd probably pay someone minimum wage, or even get a free intern to verify hits....
Also, a Mars colony is a bit soon... Lunar should be the first stop because it's much closer and easier to send rescue and would provide us with a lot of the answers regarding how to survive on another surface... Another option, for expanding population which is easily obtainable is underwater colonies - which doesn't protect us fully as a species if there is another mass impact, but it could offer some protection...
Mars is a great idea, when we have engines to reach it in a shorter time-frame... Can you imagine living on another surface, it sounds great until you get into all of the technical stuff... Yes, there is ice so they have water, and they can generate oxygen, there are LEDs meant for growing so they can easily grow micro-greens or other nutrient rich, 10 day cycle plants to eat for dirt-cheap and survive but you'd basically need to live on that stuff for the rest of your life... Everything they'd have, they'd need to bring with them, or make when they get there - so they'd need to mine, refine, create which is hard... Being isolated from everyone you've ever known - we are social animals afterall - is devastating to our psyche...
Until we can send 10,000 people to Mars, it really isn't worth it - sure a simply colony needs to go there first to build housing, farms, mines, etc... and to test the waters, but there's so much work to be done...
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#24 Reply
Posted by
james_s
on 26 May, 2018 16:58
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There have been a few experiments right here on earth with groups of people living in a sealed environment for a period of time. As far as I know they have all been rather spectacular failures. Technical problems aside, I'd bet that a mars colony would have a massive outbreak of drama within a few months.
