How is Chipageddon affecting you?

[IDEngineer]

Yes, it would happen naturally. The first company gets started, then someone there believes they know a better way so they start another down the street, etc. However, here in the States we've ended up with Route 128, Tech Triangle, etc. The lack of central planning has allowed multiple regions to rise up and become established rather than being forced to be in some designated spot for "efficiency".

[IDEngineer]

Just designing in parts that are available...

That changes on a daily basis. Unless you're revising your designs quite frequently or are building small volumes, it's not practical to redesign based on the latest searches on OctoPart or FindChips.

making sure we buy enough stock.  Going to brokers for some components as needed

Our products stay pretty stable for years and we ship hundreds of units per month so we can't redesign to match Purchasing's latest treasure hunt. So we've been contributing to the problem by prestocking single sourced items. It sucks, but it has kept the production line running. We backorder our customers far, far more often than we'd like but they are very understanding and we keep them updated in near real time. They, too, have started prestocking OUR products as buffers against our own delays. The ripple effect is real, in both directions.

[tom66]

That changes on a daily basis. Unless you're revising your designs quite frequently or are building small volumes, it's not practical to redesign based on the latest searches on OctoPart or FindChips.

I wouldn't say it's that bad.  If you look at the inventory graphs from Octopart you can pretty easily determine if a part is going to be difficult to get.

e.g. random TI buck converters:
https://octopart.com/tps63020dsjt-texas+instruments-12976119?r=sp#InventoryHistory
https://octopart.com/tps54528dda-texas+instruments-20362892?r=sp#InventoryHistory

Lots of short spikes followed by a return to zero:  bots or desperate people in purchasing grabbing what they can, relatively poor supply compared to demand.

Climbing or steady inventory:
https://octopart.com/ds2740bu%2B-maxim+integrated-11958246?r=sp
https://octopart.com/ltc3618efe%23pbf-analog+devices-88319189?r=sp

Supply is typically exceeding or meeting demand comfortably so part is lower risk.

This is only a casual analysis but it can guide decisions over whether to implement one part or another. 

[Mangozac]

At this point Microchip might as well just put a emoji in their lead times on Microchip Direct. Every time I place an order I receive an update 2 days later that has pushed the delivery date back by ~6 months from their online indication. This is despite being enrolled in PSP. Infuriatingly, Microchip Direct still lists the earlier lead time...

[JPortici]

At this point Microchip might as well just put a emoji in their lead times on Microchip Direct. Every time I place an order I receive an update 2 days later that has pushed the delivery date back by ~6 months from their online indication. This is despite being enrolled in PSP. Infuriatingly, Microchip Direct still lists the earlier lead time...

really? we are not in PSP and received parts more or less on time so far (give or take 2 weeks)
I wonder if PSP does something other than displaying a more hopeful date i.e. 26wks instead of 52wks

[Kasper]

At this point Microchip might as well just put a emoji in their lead times on Microchip Direct. Every time I place an order I receive an update 2 days later that has pushed the delivery date back by ~6 months from their online indication. This is despite being enrolled in PSP. Infuriatingly, Microchip Direct still lists the earlier lead time...

Wow. I would like to hear their excuse for that. 

[IDEngineer]

I just got a Microchip Order Acknowledgement but fortunately it didn't change the delivery date (which was already a year out).

UNfortunately, Microchip has since told me the parts I ordered "weren't supposed to be listed on MicrochipDirect". I'm now waiting for a resolution of that. Their representative has openly stated this isn't our fault, and Microchip has been VERY good to us over the years, so I'm waiting to hear how this all works out. I'll report back here.

[floobydust]

Is Microchip asleep at the wheel? Are they fabless now lol. They have no MCU stock for a very long time, like SAMD's and AVR.
I saw this on their website, contacted them and heard nothing. They obsolete the 328P but no 328PB's and how much memory do they really have? Did they double it up for us loving customers lol. I see them keep bungling Atmel products to death. It's terrible.
The old 328 I don't use but right now their MCU's are too long out of stock with no guidance.

[Mangozac]

really? we are not in PSP and received parts more or less on time so far (give or take 2 weeks)
I wonder if PSP does something other than displaying a more hopeful date i.e. 26wks instead of 52wks

Some lead times are definitely improving but others are getting worse. As I'm sure everybody here knows, the frustration is trying to plan around lead times that jump around by 26 weeks after the order is placed!

[MT]

Huawei goes into "survival mode" , memo from CEO/founder.

[SiliconWizard]

It is really bad indeed.

[SilverSolder]

Economy goes up, economy goes down...   relax, it always recovers!

[Geoff-AU]

So we've been contributing to the problem by prestocking single sourced items.
...
[Our customers], too, have started prestocking OUR products as buffers against our own delays. The ripple effect is real, in both directions.

The ripple will swing the other way in a year or two's time when everyone has way too much stock and designs in parts they have stacked to the rafters, or just sells the parts on the spot market.  Customers stop ordering for 6 months because they have oodles of stock too... yeah.  fun times.  Software would be so much easier!

Economy goes up, economy goes down...   relax, it always recovers!

It's fine as long as you can maintain a source of income somehow.


 

[Chris56000]

It isn't only integrated circuits, try finding a 4R02 SMD 1% 2W 1206 resistor without having to buy a reel of 5000 !

I want 10 to build the Curve t
Tracer  Mk. III from "Paul's Electronic DIY Blog".

Chris Williams

[rsjsouza]

2W 1206? That would be hard to find in any circumstance, no?

[SiliconWizard]

Economy goes up, economy goes down...   relax, it always recovers!

You can relax if it doesn't affect you. I'm glad it doesn't seem to be the case for you.

[Hydrawerk]

Many special PACE Accudrive solderint tips (like flat blade...) are still hard to buy!
https://www.eevblog.com/forum/reviews/newest-pace-ads200-production-station-(a-jbc-killer-at-$239)/msg4385443/#msg4385443
JBC C245 series special tips are easy to buy from TME.eu for example.
The PACE 1130-0532-p1 flat blade tip was ordered on 15/5/2022 and still not delievered from Farnell.

[SilverSolder]

Economy goes up, economy goes down...   relax, it always recovers!

You can relax if it doesn't affect you. I'm glad it doesn't seem to be the case for you.

It was a tongue in cheek comment...  of course it affects me, it affects all of us.

"Some things are so serious we can only joke about them" - Heisenberg

[Kjelt]

First signs of the shortage turning into an abundance of some parts.
Result is that manufacturers try to cancel orders at fabs.

Dutch only and closed off but just as proof
Title is: hardware-demand-decreases-chip-shortage-turns-into-surplus

https://tweakers.net/reviews/10430/de-vraag-naar-hardware-daalt-tekort-aan-chips-slaat-om-in-een-overschot.html

[MT]

Visiting ASML and TSMC again, this time we get a bit more info on who owns ASML and which companies ASML owns and various tech and supply issues, and a slab of geopolitics.... ofcourse.



Everyone knows chip manufacturing uses gobs of water, some may wonder why TSMC builds their latest fab in Arizona while the Saudis emptying the ground water out.

https://news.yahoo.com/saudi-firm-pumped-arizona-groundwater-130044725.html

[VK3DRB]

An insider in a significant electronics components company (whom I won't name) told me verbally last week that Texas Instruments is definitely supplying the "big end of town" (ie: major manufacturers) and they have pretty much abandoned small and medium enterprises SMEs with supply. Maybe TI can be sued in a class action for unfair trading practices - I don't know.

He also suspects that it is going to bite them back if and when chips become available because of the distrust that Texas Instruments has built for themselves. I used a relatively new BQ battery charger chip from TI, the BQ25171QWDRCRQ1 costing 81 cents in a PCB design. Now, none available anywhere, except from parasites in China who are now quoting $31 each. I am pretty sure these low-lives are hoarding chips they know are in short supply so they can "be rich and glorious". I will change the design and maybe go for an STM or AD chip, steering very wide of TI. When I change, I won't be going back to TI even if the cowboys were giving them away. AD seems like a reasonable company. You pay a little more, but they have a superior level of trust and confidence.

[tom66]

I can confirm that as an SME we are vetoing TI parts in new designs due to their behaviour.  It's going to cost them a fortune in the long run.  I would not be surprised if the Pareto principle applies for electronics.  Something like 80% of demand is from the 20% smallest companies.  The USA is built on small business; so is much of Europe.  Very bad decision by TI.  But it's a free market, so let them destroy their reputation if they so wish.

[Ed.Kloonk]

I can confirm that as an SME we are vetoing TI parts in new designs due to their behaviour.  It's going to cost them a fortune in the long run.  I would not be surprised if the Pareto principle applies for electronics.  Something like 80% of demand is from the 20% smallest companies.  The USA is built on small business; so is much of Europe.  Very bad decision by TI.  But it's a free market, so let them destroy their reputation if they so wish.

My question is, why?

Is it poor/ignorant stewardship or is there some agenda or utopian point on the horizon that the senior management is chasing?

[AndyC_772]

Something like 80% of demand is from the 20% smallest companies.

I'm not sure I can see how that can be the case. If it were, and TI were actually able to make even, say, 50% of their usual production volume, then SMEs would have to end up getting stock.

Where else could it possibly be going?

I suspect instead that they're simply fulfilling hard contractual obligations with customers large enough to have such contracts in place. Distributors are at the bottom of the list of companies to be supplied, once contracts with penalty clauses have been fulfilled.

[tom66]

I suspect it is simple: the big auto OEMs (& so on) have simply bid much more for the parts, and in a volatile market, Digi-Key and other distributors do not want to buy in stock at prices that might vary week by week.  And TI and other suppliers are just not willing to provide them with the guarantees of fixed pricing or do the sales on a consignment business, too much risk.  I would imagine all in that Digi-Key takes around 30-40% of the purchase price to cover distribution, shipping, insurance, returns (this tends towards a low figure, maybe 10%, for high volume orders) and this also factors into the calculation.

I would love to see a distribution of industry size vs order volume, I am just guessing that SMEs are a significant part of the industry.