Thunderf00t has lost last of his marbles and remaining bits of credibility

[wraper]

Frankly I understand what irks people, especially in the sciences and engineering about Musk. The (broken) promises and outright on the spot made up nonsense, only made to get applause from the crowd or increase share value. The most annoying thing is that it works, the crowd cheers and it doesn't matter that any number of specific dates pass, and it's fine, the crowd is ready to cheer to another astonishing promise and you can see how they are all fantasizing about how it'll be awesome. Compare that to the way engineers (at least me) approach actually saying a specific due date - pretty much a holy pact for me - and you can see why he rubs some people the extremely wrong way.

IMHO an argument that very complicated stuff that was never done before or will be built by factories that do not yet exist is delivered late is the weakest argument you can make to prove someone is a scam artist. What annoys me in TF the most is a dishonesty and mental gymnastics when he constantly compares Elon and his companies with Elizabeth Holmes (Theranos) and Trevor Milton (Nikola), neither of which ever delivered a real product, and knowingly lied about what they knew they won't be able to do regardless of the timeframe. What a mentally blind dumbass or whatever you must be to dunk on SpaceX that they cannot launch a rocket to the orbit (as if they don't do it every few days) and depict every Starship launch as an utter failure when they've gone more or less according to what was planned/expected. And when they manage to land a booster on the tower, still dunking that they cannot deliver a single kilo to the orbit (as if they were trying to do it) while SLS is so much real and successful (as if it was delivered on time  ). Not to say, Musk himself admits all the time he's too optimistic with timeframes.

[nctnico]

IMHO Musk is pretty close to being similar to Elizabeth Holmes and Trevor Milton. Only differences are that Musk seems to have a little bit better feel for what is feasible and is way more capable of reeling money in. Remember Tesla was pretty much broke not so long ago. If Tesla went bust, Musk likely ended up in jail just like Elizabeth Holmes.

[SiliconWizard]

Who has never had a project slip? Only people who don't do squat. So yes, that argument is ridiculous.
Now, calling him on his optimistic announcements would still be fine, if a bit weak in terms of arguments. Why not. Everyone does it, but why not.
I also find it reasonable to question some of his projects (which have dubious ethics aspects to them), such as Neuralink or the thousands of satellites launched into orbit for Starlink (in terms of "pollution").
I would also support people finding *real data* proving that he has wasted large amounts of public money with no output.

But rants purely obsessing on the person with clear political goals and little or twisted facts, that's completely uninteresting. At least on an engineering forum. Just my 3 cents. (That's 2 with recent inflation.)

[wraper]

IMHO Musk is pretty close to being similar to Elizabeth Holmes and Trevor Milton. Only differences are that Musk seems to have a little bit better feel for what is feasible and is way more capable of reeling money in. Remember Tesla was pretty much broke not so long ago. If Tesla went bust, Musk likely ended up in jail just like Elizabeth Holmes.

I really doubt he would be in jail, not in US (hello GM, Chrysler). In 2018 Tesla was burning money like crazy because they launched mass production of Model 3 from scratch. Not because it was some Ponzi scheme or they did not have a real product like Elizabeth Holmes. If you compare it with Rivian, Tesla was even hardly burning any money.

[EEVblog]

I really doubt he would be in jail, not in US. In 2018 Tesla was burning money like crazy because they launched mass production of Model 3 from scratch. Not because it was some Ponzi scheme or they did not have a real product like Elizabeth Holmes. If you compare it with Rivian, Tesla was even hardly burning any money.

I haven't heard of half a dozen of those companies.

[jonovid]

if EV battery packs could be swapped out like BBQ Gas Bottle refills it world make all the deference to affordability. it works for
power tools

[Ice-Tea]

That idea pretty much died. There's a reason for that.

[PlainName]

it works for power tools

Maybe. Generally you either have more than one tool which the pack can switch between, or you need more power more often than you can recharge the pack. It's only the latter case that would work for EVs, and if it were that compelling (because there were, say, exchange parks where you can switch packs) we'd surely be hearing of someone trying it (even if they're obviously going to fail in some way).

[SiliconWizard]

if EV battery packs could be swapped out like BBQ Gas Bottle refills it world make all the deference to affordability. it works for
power tools

Yes, but the ~500 kg of a battery for a typical medium-size EV car such as a Tesla makes it kind of unpractical. Not to talk about connectors passing hundreds of A that you'd keep connecting and disconnecting.

[Siwastaja]

IMHO one of Elon's talents is that he is very good at 'fake it until you make it' and gets away with not making all of it.

It's just the right balance of faking and making, and correct timing. It is tempting to fake too much and make too little, but Musk has not fallen into that trap.

[nctnico]

IMHO Musk is pretty close to being similar to Elizabeth Holmes and Trevor Milton. Only differences are that Musk seems to have a little bit better feel for what is feasible and is way more capable of reeling money in. Remember Tesla was pretty much broke not so long ago. If Tesla went bust, Musk likely ended up in jail just like Elizabeth Holmes.

I really doubt he would be in jail, not in US (hello GM, Chrysler). In 2018 Tesla was burning money like crazy because they launched mass production of Model 3 from scratch. Not because it was some Ponzi scheme or they did not have a real product like Elizabeth Holmes. If you compare it with Rivian, Tesla was even hardly burning any money.

Keep in mind Musk has had repeated run-ins with the SEC and got some hefty fines over the years. The SEC can hand a case over to DOJ for criminal proscecution.

[magic]

Musk is too rich to fail
EDS/TDS crowd will blame Orange Man, fanboys will say this proves them right again, and flamewars will continue as usual.

I'm waiting for mass shootings over Musk. Come on, there has to be some way to justify it

[Psi]

IMHO one of Elon's talents is that he is very good at 'fake it until you make it' and gets away with not making all of it.

It's just the right balance of faking and making, and correct timing. It is tempting to fake too much and make too little, but Musk has not fallen into that trap.

Yeah, agreed, he definitely does a lot of 'fake it until you make it'.

One thing I think people miss here though is that companies do this all the time and no one cares.
Nameless faceless executives or directors or the board acting cowardly and hiding behind the company name and out of the public light so no one knows who they are and what they did. But if you choose not to be cowardly and take some ownership by putting your face to the company and all its decisions then suddenly everyone goes after you for any decisions that turned out to be bad.
Seems a bit backwards to me. Do the more honorable thing and get punished for it.

IMHO Musk is pretty close to being similar to Elizabeth Holmes and Trevor Milton. Only differences are that Musk seems to have a little bit better feel for what is feasible and is way more capable of reeling money in. Remember Tesla was pretty much broke not so long ago. If Tesla went bust, Musk likely ended up in jail just like Elizabeth Holmes.

There's a big difference between badly missing a future delivery date for a feature of a car that was in development when the car was purchased (fully autonomous self drive without user input).

Verses, lying and selling the product as fully working now only for it to be discovered that actually 0% of it worked and it was all a lie and people where doing the testing by hand to cover it up. (Theranos blood testing)

For the comparison to be reasonable it would need something along the lines of full self drive being discovered to be entirely done by remote human control of the vehicles.

[tom66]

Battery swapping will be killed by rapid charging.  You can 10-80% charge batteries in cars like Taycan in 15 minutes.  With a few more iterations of the technology that will be in the sub-10 minute range.  At which point the cost and complexity of battery swapping will make no sense at all to save maybe 7 minutes? 

If an EV can do a 1000km journey in about the same time as an ICE car then there will be no space for battery swapping.

[magic]

What about longevity of batteries?
I remember when 4C chargers for Ni-MH were a thing. They aren't anymore.

[mikeselectricstuff]

if EV battery packs could be swapped out like BBQ Gas Bottle refills it world make all the deference to affordability. it works for
power tools

Yes, but the ~500 kg of a battery for a typical medium-size EV car such as a Tesla makes it kind of unpractical. Not to talk about connectors passing hundreds of A that you'd keep connecting and disconnecting.

..and the cooling

[tom66]

What about longevity of batteries?
I remember when 4C chargers for Ni-MH were a thing. They aren't anymore.

Probably bad if done every day, a non-issue if done every month.  The problem is current technology requires the battery to be heated to accept maximum charge rates, so the battery cells are running at around 50C.  This will cause degradation, but the magnitude of it is harder to quantify.  Some test results from Tesla's that have been frequently rapid charged show little additional degradation due to frequent charging at superchargers, but, the counterpoint is Tesla nerfed some cars charging ability with an over the air update because they were concerned that the charging curve was causing too much deterioration (some of those owners are currently suing Tesla).

[wilfred]

Keep in mind Musk has had repeated run-ins with the SEC and got some hefty fines over the years. The SEC can hand a case over to DOJ for criminal proscecution.

Well it can. But I'm seeing a plan come together.

[mikeselectricstuff]

Battery swapping will be killed by rapid charging.  You can 10-80% charge batteries in cars like Taycan in 15 minutes.  With a few more iterations of the technology that will be in the sub-10 minute range.  At which point the cost and complexity of battery swapping will make no sense at all to save maybe 7 minutes? 

If an EV can do a 1000km journey in about the same time as an ICE car then there will be no space for battery swapping.

Swapping might have made some sense if all cars used the same battery, but that possibility is long gone, so that alone renders it a dead duck, regardless of any technical or logistical benefits to some parts of the market. 

[magic]

I suppose they could be forced to adopt USB-C if there is enough demand for a common connector

IMO it's the hundreds of kg which will be more of an impediment. Each station would need a small crane, and cars would need to be designed to make batteries easily and quickly accessible.

[nctnico]

Battery swapping will be killed by rapid charging.  You can 10-80% charge batteries in cars like Taycan in 15 minutes.  With a few more iterations of the technology that will be in the sub-10 minute range.  At which point the cost and complexity of battery swapping will make no sense at all to save maybe 7 minutes? 

You are forgetting one thing here: where does all the energy come from? Having dedicated on-site (or upstream) batteries which charge over a longer period will make rapid charging woefully expensive. Probably prohibitively expensive compared to alternatives like using hydrogen directly (hydrogen is probably where the energy for charging the on-site batteries is coming from anyway).

Elon has very cleverly banked on the fact the most people take electricity being available in any amount for granted. Just push a plug into a socket and you have electricity in abundance.... or not...

[mikeselectricstuff]

Battery swapping will be killed by rapid charging.  You can 10-80% charge batteries in cars like Taycan in 15 minutes.  With a few more iterations of the technology that will be in the sub-10 minute range.  At which point the cost and complexity of battery swapping will make no sense at all to save maybe 7 minutes? 

You are forgetting one thing here: where does all the energy come from? Having dedicated on-site (or upstream) batteries which charge over a longer period will make rapid charging woefully expensive. Probably prohibitively expensive compared to alternatives like using hydrogen directly (hydrogen is probably where the energy for charging the on-site batteries is coming from anyway).

Elon has very cleverly banked on the fact the most people take electricity being available in any amount for granted. Just push a plug into a socket and you have electricity in abundance.... or not...

Hydogen - seriously ? Hopeless for normal cars, possibly useful in some niches, but horrifically inefficient, and nowadays mostly made from fossil fuels.
Dedicated on-site batteries can be a profitable  asset as they can also be used for local grid balancing - The Gridserve site in Braintree Essex does this - ISTR reading somewhere they make more from this than the charging

[Siwastaja]

Hydogen - seriously ?

You have not seen nctnico before? In short: do not feed a troll, especially in a thread where it does not belong.

[nctnico]

Battery swapping will be killed by rapid charging.  You can 10-80% charge batteries in cars like Taycan in 15 minutes.  With a few more iterations of the technology that will be in the sub-10 minute range.  At which point the cost and complexity of battery swapping will make no sense at all to save maybe 7 minutes? 

You are forgetting one thing here: where does all the energy come from? Having dedicated on-site (or upstream) batteries which charge over a longer period will make rapid charging woefully expensive. Probably prohibitively expensive compared to alternatives like using hydrogen directly (hydrogen is probably where the energy for charging the on-site batteries is coming from anyway).

Elon has very cleverly banked on the fact the most people take electricity being available in any amount for granted. Just push a plug into a socket and you have electricity in abundance.... or not...

Hydogen - seriously ? Hopeless for normal cars, possibly useful in some niches, but horrifically inefficient, and nowadays mostly made from fossil fuels.
Dedicated on-site batteries can be a profitable  asset as they can also be used for local grid balancing - The Gridserve site in Braintree Essex does this - ISTR reading somewhere they make more from this than the charging

Yes. Very seriously. If you look over the horizon you'll see that hydrogen will largely replace oil & gas. Nuclear is no big player due to lack of Uranium; there simply isn't enough Uranium on the world for mass scale nuclear. Thorium reactors and nuclear fusion are at least 50 years away from being operational. Therefore many European countries are working (not planning!) on building hydrogen infrastructure for long term (seasonal) storage in order to have strategic reserves and even out pricing. Much like is done with oil & gas currently. The hydrogen is to come from countries with large desert areas. As part of the hydrogen plans many European countries have agreements in place with north African countries for hydrogen production from solar panels. Keep in mind that it also gets dark during the night and those countries also have seasonal variations in sunlight (less hours of sun in the winter). There is just no way to achieve the amount of storage needed with batteries in a financially viable way -if the amount of materials needed is even available-. Batteries are nice to store electricity for a couple of hours to even out the peaks. But for long term, hydrogen is cheaper. All you need for hydrogen is an empty vessel (which can also be an old gas field or salt cavern) which means a far lower amount of materials compared to a battery.

This means that at some point (say in 15 to 30 years from now) electricity will come from hydrogen fuel cells feeding the grid. But how much sense does it make to convert the hydrogen to electricity, store it in a battery at a supercharger and then put it into a battery again? And the problem isn't efficiency, but it is economics as storing a kWh of electricity in a battery is expensive. Especially when those batteries serve a single purpose at a charging station and/or in a car. Putting the hydrogen into a car directly will be cheaper. Not today, but in the future very likely.

Does that mean that people will stop buying Tesla's? Probably not as Musk has hyped the brand to have a strong following (like Apple).

[PlainName]

but it is economics as storing a kWh of electricity in a battery is expensive

This is a good point. With fuels like petrol and hydrogen, once you have the base in (motor and how to feed it) then extra capacity is relatively cheap: just a bigger volume to store it in. Batteries are somewhat different in that expanding is just as expensive as starting small.