Unplug the cable at the programmer and leave it plugged into the AVR, use a multi meter to check the cable's VCC and GND pins to see if they are shorted.
Double check your connections.
The breadboard wires look correct, but I can't tell what's going on in that cable.
It would be advisable to check carefully, with a a multimeter continuity test, that each end of the cable is what you expect, that you haven't got it inverted for example.