When will we return to normal microcontroller stock availability?

[luiHS]

The problem is whether now, with the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and the crazy Putin's threats to the rest of the world, this can get even worse.

It seems that we are going from bad to worse, new problems are being added that threaten the current crisis even more.

[PartialDischarge]

Even LMC555 are out of stock. Can't even design a led blinker !!!

[Karel]

The problem is whether now, with the Russian invasion of the Ukraine and the crazy Putin's threats to the rest of the world, this can get even worse.

It seems that we are going from bad to worse, new problems are being added that threaten the current crisis even more.

“In addition, the semiconductor industry has a diverse set of suppliers of key materials and gases,
so we do not believe there are immediate supply disruption risks related to Russia and Ukraine.”

https://www.semiconductors.org/sia-statement-on-sanctions-on-russia/

"Chipmakers Downplay Fears Ukraine Crisis Will Worsen Shortages
Ukraine isn’t a threat to the supply chain, industry says
Intel and GlobalFoundries see no impact on materials"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/chipmakers-downplay-fears-ukraine-crisis-will-worsen-shortages

"ASML seeking alternative sources for neon gas amid Ukraine crisis
Although Ukraine is the world's biggest producer of neon, ASML sources less than 20%
of the gas from it uses from those countries, a spokesperson said on Wednesday."

https://www.reuters.com/technology/asml-seeking-alternative-sources-neon-gas-amid-ukraine-crisis-2022-02-23/

[leon_heller]

Neon is used in the lasers that are in all chip fabs.
Uh

[luiHS]

Even LMC555 are out of stock. Can't even design a led blinker !!!

The situation is not that extreme, the 555 is available from many manufacturers, most from Texas Instruments.

https://www.mouser.es/c/semiconductors/clock-timer-ics/timers-support-products/?q=555&mounting%20style=SMD%2FSMT&instock=y&sort=pricing

It is other chips that are really scarce, microcontrollers, sensors, accelerometers, I2S chips, CAN FD controllers, etc... What for now does not seem to be in short supply are memory chips, RAM, Eprom, Flash, SDRAM. Most 32bit microcontrollers have disappeared from vendor stock, this is the worst.

[SiliconWizard]

Even LMC555 are out of stock. Can't even design a led blinker !!!

If you can't design a LED blinker without a 555, you need to go back to the drawing board. =)

[PartialDischarge]

Even LMC555 are out of stock. Can't even design a led blinker !!!

If you can't design a LED blinker without a 555, you need to go back to the drawing board. =)

It was trying to be a funny overstatement

[floobydust]

Even 32.768kHz crystals that go with 32-bit MCU's, are in short supply. Some of 12.5pF but 6-9pF is months away. I know quartz crystals takes time to grow I guess it's demand related that shortage?

I am also watching LM555 stock for amusement, not that anyone designs these in - but it's been around for 50 years and imagine the dwindling stock running out.

[rfclown]

Even 32.768kHz crystals that go with 32-bit MCU's, are in short supply. Some of 12.5pF but 6-9pF is months away. I know quartz crystals takes time to grow I guess it's demand related that shortage?

I am also watching LM555 stock for amusement, not that anyone designs these in - but it's been around for 50 years and imagine the dwindling stock running out.

I actually put one in a design at work last year. We had the 1PPS coming out of a ublox GPS module, which I think has about 100ms pulse width at 3.3v. In the former design it went to the input of a uC, no problem. The requirement changed in that it needed to mimic a military GPS unit for which the 1PPS is specified (if I'm remembering correctly) 5V, 20 usec into 50 ohms. Using a 555 as a one shot, I was able to get a pulse narrower, and have enough umph to drive 50 ohms (picking the right 555). Pulled a DIP 555 out of my at home stash, tried it out on a breadboard, and bingo, it worked. Used an SO8 of the same part for the design. 555 is still useful, but there are simpler ways to blink an LED.

[brucehoult]

Even LMC555 are out of stock. Can't even design a led blinker !!!

If you can't design a LED blinker without a 555, you need to go back to the drawing board. =)

A low end PIC or AVR is several times cheaper than a 555 and with a couple of ADC inputs can do everything a 555 can do, at similar maximum frequency/latency. The only difference is most of them can't source/sink 200 mA.

[peter-h]

So, where is all the production going now?

ST etc must be running flat out, making hay while the sun shines (while prices are high) because they know that eventually this bubble will collapse and then nobody will be making money.

[Kjelt]

Probably to those chips that earn the most $/layer.
The newest processors and flash chips have smaller and more layers.
The first smallest layers are processed on the expensive euv machines but the layers above are done on the same duv machines where the jelly bean chips are also made. So the global throughput of silicon wafers per day is decreased due to the latest chips from Apple, NVidia etc. But those companies probably pay the most to the foundries. Also the demand for chips has increased with over 50% due to everyone working at home.
So to say how long this takes really depend on the exact chip you are waiting for and in what dateslot the production of that chip has been secured by the manufacturer. Some chips are still not slotted so there is no new production scheduled which makes the date of availability unknown.

[PlainName]

I am also watching LM555 stock for amusement, not that anyone designs these in

I've just used one (albeit not an LM) as a missing pulse detector.

[floobydust]

I am also watching LM555 stock for amusement, not that anyone designs these in

I've just used one (albeit not an LM) as a missing pulse detector.

I'm not against using a 555, simplicity has a place; but it's way overpriced - triple the price of small 8-bit MCU's.
Yes, missing is the wide VCC range and high output drive current but I kind of expect a 50 year old (~25 transistor) 555 to cost less than an MCU, not way more.

[floobydust]

So, where is all the production going now?

ST etc must be running flat out, making hay while the sun shines (while prices are high) because they know that eventually this bubble will collapse and then nobody will be making money.

ST raking in the cash: "STMicroelectronics has reported solid financial results for 2021, with fourth quarter net revenues reaching $3.56 billion, up 9.9% year-over-year and 11.2% sequentially. For the full year, ST achieved net revenues of $12.76 billion, an increase of 24.9%, while net income increased by 80.8% to $2 billion."
"ST expects the global chip shortage to gradually improve in 2022. “But it might not return to ‘normal’ until the first half of 2023,” said {President and CEO} Chery."
source https://www.eetasia.com/stmicroelectronics-expects-to-sustain-strong-growth-in-2022/
The CEO seems to be OD'ing on kool-aid, sky high prices and no STM32 stock, union pissed off strikes at plants, look I saw a unicorn and a rainbow, and made $12.76 billion 

Record semi sales, double digit across the board YOY. ~26%.
It seems to be smartphones eating up most of the silicon, sales surged 31% in 2021 record high $35.0B in sales.
"Embedded microprocessor sales... are projected to grow 9% in 2022 to about $21.5 billion after increasing 11% in both 2021 and 2020."

[descartes]

ST raking in the cash

Not so much a rake as a fleet of JCB bulldozers.

Last 20+ days I've lost hours each day playing hunt the MCU trying to figure out a game plan. Indeed hours looking for simple stuff like electrolytic caps. Last week 2 pole CO PCB mount relays, still not found anything of reasonable provenance in a qty of 1,000+. By the time I've found some, I'll need 2,000.

But the MCU's, that's just madness. ST seem to be 3 times the price, when you can find something, than anything similar to Atmel SAM.

In the UK the main distributors, Farnell & RS, may as well de-list the usual ranges to save us the bother of using their search. RS just adds to the misery by not showing stock levels in the list pages.

However the question I'd really like answered is how we arrived at so many variants. I'm fully aware of yields, but if you have a part that can be 32, 64, 128, 196 or 256KB of flash, that's not yield, that's turning off chunks of the die. And then you multiply that out with the packaging options.

Right now I'd be happy to go with a 256KB flash 64 pin in a small shop friendly format like TQFP (as opposed to any BGA), even if I only need 64KB flash on 32 pins for the actual project. But I have no clue what the strategy is, so anytime I'm looking at KiCAD PCB on screen, I just come out in a cold sweat that I can't find the part / package I'm guessing on a design for.

With the lead times we've ended up with, Gigadevice & Nuvotron ARM look increasingly attractive for a short soak test, their websites sell direct & appear to have stock on hand, ST & Microchip could find them selves with a whole generation of engineers who leave them to their corporate sales pipelines whilst the rest of us move designs over to smaller but more dynamic players.

So if any of the big boys are reading this, how about stop trying to make some of everything, just build lots of the upper end of each range in more common formats and don't ship 100,000 to a customer that you know will only use a third of that in the coming year.

[coppice]

Even LMC555 are out of stock. Can't even design a led blinker !!!

If you can't design a LED blinker without a 555, you need to go back to the drawing board. =)

A low end PIC or AVR is several times cheaper than a 555 and with a couple of ADC inputs can do everything a 555 can do, at similar maximum frequency/latency. The only difference is most of them can't source/sink 200 mA.

Where are you buying low end PICs and AVRs for a fraction of the cost of a 5 cent 555 timer? Are the undercutting Paduak where you live?

[Kjelt]

But I have no clue what the strategy is, so anytime I'm looking at KiCAD PCB on screen, I just come out in a cold sweat that I can't find the part / package I'm guessing on a design for.

Your strategy is faulty, you should buy the components first in a quantity that will keep you afloat till end of next year, when it arrives and you have it on the shelves only then do a redesign of create the product. That is why you can not find anything, if something comes on the market it will be bought right away.

With the lead times we've ended up with, Gigadevice & Nuvotron ARM look increasingly attractive for a short soak test, their websites sell direct & appear to have stock on hand, ST & Microchip could find them selves with a whole generation of engineers who leave them to their corporate sales pipelines whilst the rest of us move designs over to smaller but more dynamic players.

If you know that they can produce the same amount of chips as ST/Microchip with their own fabs why not. If they outsource to foundries then you can expect the same logistic reliability problems just after their stock is depleted.

don't ship 100,000 to a customer that you know will only use a third of that in the coming year.

Those are long term solid valued customers that have been buying those quantities for the last ten+ years from them. No one wants to loose their valued customers they just sell them for higher prices as usual. And no they also don't get everything they ordered over two years ago. It is a big mess for everyone.

[brucehoult]

Even LMC555 are out of stock. Can't even design a led blinker !!!

If you can't design a LED blinker without a 555, you need to go back to the drawing board. =)

A low end PIC or AVR is several times cheaper than a 555 and with a couple of ADC inputs can do everything a 555 can do, at similar maximum frequency/latency. The only difference is most of them can't source/sink 200 mA.

Where are you buying low end PICs and AVRs for a fraction of the cost of a 5 cent 555 timer? Are the undercutting Paduak where you live?

555s aren't 5c anywhere I can buy them.

Interesting I'm now seeing slow 100 kHz ones (i.e. original spec) for 40c. I haven't found them for less than $1.50 before, at which price an ATTiny85 is cheaper (and I always have a bunch on hand), let alone an ATTiny25.

https://www.digikey.com/en/products/detail/texas-instruments/NE555P/277057

[PlainName]

LCSC C6986 - TLC555 38p 7828 in stock (allegedly).

[coppice]

555s aren't 5c anywhere I can buy them.

Interesting I'm now seeing slow 100 kHz ones (i.e. original spec) for 40c. I haven't found them for less than $1.50 before, at which price an ATTiny85 is cheaper (and I always have a bunch on hand), let alone an ATTiny25.

https://www.digikey.com/en/products/detail/texas-instruments/NE555P/277057

With some parts you need to buy big numbers to get a reasonable price. With a 555, there are so many sources they are just jelly bean prices, even in modest quantities. Digiikey is a very expensive place to buy semiconductors, but even they only want you to buy 2500 to drop the price to 11 cents on the page you referenced. You can buy them by the reel for half that.

[descartes]

But I have no clue what the strategy is, so anytime I'm looking at KiCAD PCB on screen, I just come out in a cold sweat that I can't find the part / package I'm guessing on a design for.

Your strategy is faulty, you should buy the components first in a quantity that will keep you afloat till end of next year, when it arrives and you have it on the shelves only then do a redesign of create the product. That is why you can not find anything, if something comes on the market it will be bought right away.

Certainly a strategy for anyone making product. Although I was actually referring to what the mainstream manufacturer's strategy was for replenishing the supply chain.

Sadly I don't have product on my side of the office, so not a suggestion that's a great fit, I create small runs of proof of concept through to initial batches of custom IoT, frequently as co-development on the firmware side which means the client often has a preference for the MCU based on their staff skills. Sure I have a certain amount of standardisation and I am buying when I can and I'm explaining it real slow to prospects that there isn't much availability so if they want to do a project, they need to bring their own supply to the party or give me free rein to find what I can.

If you have it all under control, I'd be happy to pick up a loan from you to fund the cashflow to buy 22 months worth of parts. 

With the lead times we've ended up with, Gigadevice & Nuvotron ARM look increasingly attractive for a short soak test ....

If you know that they can produce the same amount of chips as ST/Microchip with their own fabs why not. If they outsource to foundries then you can expect the same logistic reliability problems just after their stock is depleted.

I don't know, otherwise I'd not have raised it as a discussion point. Do you?

don't ship 100,000 to a customer that you know will only use a third of that in the coming year.

Those are long term solid valued customers that have been buying those quantities for the last ten+ years from them. No one wants to loose their valued customers they just sell them for higher prices as usual. And no they also don't get everything they ordered over two years ago. It is a big mess for everyone.

For our other manufacturing / product based range we have allocated proportionally based on prior purchases so the smaller businesses that we support now will be more inclined to stay with us in the years ahead. None of the larger ones seem that bothered as they are clearly putting shipments on the shelf and by asking them what they actually need, we can plan accordingly.

[brucehoult]

555s aren't 5c anywhere I can buy them.

Interesting I'm now seeing slow 100 kHz ones (i.e. original spec) for 40c. I haven't found them for less than $1.50 before, at which price an ATTiny85 is cheaper (and I always have a bunch on hand), let alone an ATTiny25.

https://www.digikey.com/en/products/detail/texas-instruments/NE555P/277057

With some parts you need to buy big numbers to get a reasonable price. With a 555, there are so many sources they are just jelly bean prices, even in modest quantities. Digiikey is a very expensive place to buy semiconductors, but even they only want you to buy 2500 to drop the price to 11 cents on the page you referenced. You can buy them by the reel for half that.

I don't buy things by the reel. I buy one, or maybe ten maximum.

My working assumption, not having any actual data to the contrary, is that people who buy in volume get similar percentage discounts on everything relative to the Digikey / Mouser / Element14 qty-1 price and get AVRs and PICs much much cheaper than I can too.

So you can get a 555 for 5c. Cool. What can you get an ATTiny25 or the equivalent 8 pin PIC for?

[coppice]

So you can get a 555 for 5c. Cool. What can you get an ATTiny25 or the equivalent 8 pin PIC for?

Its a long time since I looked, but the reason people were amazed by the 3 cent Padauk MCUs is they a fraction of the price of anything else. I think PICs probably start around 10 cents for those really simple ones in tiny packages, in high volume. As you add more pins the A&T costs rapidly rise.

[T3sl4co1l]

Where are you buying low end PICs and AVRs for a fraction of the cost of a 5 cent 555 timer? Are the undercutting Paduak where you live?

You keep bringing up low prices but curiously, you haven't opened a storefront extending those savings to the small buyer.  Why is that?  Surely even a small markup on top of $0.05/pc would justify such a venture.

Tim