Car Emmisisons (was Thunderf00t thread)

[coppice]

I might not be up to date, but for some time Tesla only made a profit because it could sell emission certificates to other car makers. What are these emission certificates but a form of subsidy? They are issued as an incentive to build more EVs and/or to build fewer ICE cars.

That was said to be the case at one time. I don't know if its still true. Those certificates are definitely still bringing them substantial income. The problem for the car makers now is the EU, UK, and I assume some other countries, are setting a minimum percentage of cars sold/registered which must be EVs, and the EV market isn't big enough for the trading to work any more. This year's target in the UK is 22% EVs, and total EVs sales, including Tesla's (which are quite popular in the UK) don't add up to 22%. So unless something changes car makers appear to be facing a 15,000 pound charge per car sold. That's going to make those emission certificates super valuable this year. A lot of EVs have been registered without being sold in the last few months, as the car makers frantically try to get the number of EV registrations up, in a market where even large discounts can't move enough EVs.

[tom66]

In parts of the US, 4G is now offered from Starlink satellites.  This is one way to improve service coverage in hard to reach areas.

[nctnico]

I might not be up to date, but for some time Tesla only made a profit because it could sell emission certificates to other car makers. What are these emission certificates but a form of subsidy? They are issued as an incentive to build more EVs and/or to build fewer ICE cars.

That was said to be the case at one time. I don't know if its still true. Those certificates are definitely still bringing them substantial income. The problem for the car makers now is the EU, UK, and I assume some other countries, are setting a minimum percentage of cars sold/registered which must be EVs, and the EV market isn't big enough for the trading to work any more. This year's target in the UK is 22% EVs, and total EVs sales, including Tesla's (which are quite popular in the UK) don't add up to 22%. So unless something changes car makers appear to be facing a 15,000 pound charge per car sold. That's going to make those emission certificates super valuable this year. A lot of EVs have been registered without being sold in the last few months, as the car makers frantically try to get the number of EV registrations up, in a market where even large discounts can't move enough EVs.

Actually, there is no requirement for the cars sold to be BEVs. The limit is the average CO2 emissions from new cars sold in the EU. I understand the regulations in the UK are similar. So it doesn't matter what kind of cars are being sold for as long as the average CO2 emission limits are met. On top of this, from 2025 a different (supposedly more realistic) test method (WLTP) will be used resulting in slightly higher CO2 emission numbers compared to the old NEDC method (*). This is why European car makers are now frantically shifting towards (plug-in) hybrids as the market for BEVs seems to have become saturated in the EU.

* Both test methods are a joke anyway. Real world fuel consumption is much higher.

[vk6zgo]

Also Thunderf00t said that Starlink will never happen (it did obviously) and that Starship will never work.

To be fair I believe he said it would never be profitable and would ultimately go bankrupt. Verdict is still kind of out on that one, but it's looking very successful, so might end up being a bad call.

This is one of those issues like Motorola's Iridium network in the 1990s. It provided phone calls quite well at any spot on Earth. However, other divisions of Motorola were ensuring GSM networks would be available almost everywhere, and roaming agreements were being put in place so you could call a GSM phone almost anywhere on Earth The bits where you couldn't didn't generate enough traffic to make the Iridium system viable. There are lots of people offering rural 5G ISP service in the UK now, with an antenna on the chimney stack, right next to the TV antenna. Maybe 5G will be another generation of starving out the satellite option.

The failure of Iridium was what came to mind when Musk was touting Starlink as if it was something new & innovative.

Elon was definitely more imaginative in that he was promoting it as something for countries with very little communications infrastructure, compared to Iridium's somewhat more limited aims.

[coppice]

Actually, there is no requirement for the cars sold to be BEVs. The limit is the average CO2 emissions from new cars sold in the EU. I understand the regulations in the UK are similar. So it doesn't matter what kind of cars are being sold for as long as the average CO2 emission limits are met. This is why European car makers are now frantically shifting towards (plug-in) hybrids as the market for BEVs seems to have become saturated in the EU.

In the UK the requirement in previous years was for a certain average CO2 emission. This year it is specifically 22% zero emission vehicles. Hybrids and others don't count. I thought there was something similar happening on the mainland.

[nctnico]

Also Thunderf00t said that Starlink will never happen (it did obviously) and that Starship will never work.

To be fair I believe he said it would never be profitable and would ultimately go bankrupt. Verdict is still kind of out on that one, but it's looking very successful, so might end up being a bad call.

This is one of those issues like Motorola's Iridium network in the 1990s. It provided phone calls quite well at any spot on Earth. However, other divisions of Motorola were ensuring GSM networks would be available almost everywhere, and roaming agreements were being put in place so you could call a GSM phone almost anywhere on Earth The bits where you couldn't didn't generate enough traffic to make the Iridium system viable. There are lots of people offering rural 5G ISP service in the UK now, with an antenna on the chimney stack, right next to the TV antenna. Maybe 5G will be another generation of starving out the satellite option.

The failure of Iridium was what came to mind when Musk was touting Starlink as if it was something new & innovative.

Elon was definitely more imaginative in that he was promoting it as something for countries with very little communications infrastructure, compared to Iridium's somewhat more limited aims.

IMHO Elon has a more hollistic approach to putting new technology onto the market. He makes sure people can actually use the products and thus create a real market for the products he develops. The Tesla super-charger network is an example. He didn't wait for others to get in action but made sure his products are supported by an ecosystem one way or another.

[coppice]

Elon was definitely more imaginative in that he was promoting it as something for countries with very little communications infrastructure, compared to Iridium's somewhat more limited aims.

Motorola had divisions in conflict with each other - cellular, land mobile radio, and government systems. Cellular pushed GSM. Land mobile radio pushed iDEN in competition with cellular. Government Systems pushed Iridium in competition with both of them. None of those divisions had limited aims. Two had limited outcomes. Eventually, the third did, too.

[nctnico]

Actually, there is no requirement for the cars sold to be BEVs. The limit is the average CO2 emissions from new cars sold in the EU. I understand the regulations in the UK are similar. So it doesn't matter what kind of cars are being sold for as long as the average CO2 emission limits are met. This is why European car makers are now frantically shifting towards (plug-in) hybrids as the market for BEVs seems to have become saturated in the EU.

In the UK the requirement in previous years was for a certain average CO2 emission. This year it is specifically 22% zero emission vehicles.

That is going to be an epic failure for sure. Maybe the numbers will be met on paper but likely the manufacturers will simply stop selling non-BEV cars if that means exceeding the limit. In the end the UK market isn't that big. The end result is that older cars will be used much longer causing more CO2 emissions (and other pollution) compared to driving around in hybrids.

[Andy Chee]

Actually, there is no requirement for the cars sold to be BEVs. The limit is the average CO2 emissions from new cars sold in the EU. I understand the regulations in the UK are similar. So it doesn't matter what kind of cars are being sold for as long as the average CO2 emission limits are met. This is why European car makers are now frantically shifting towards (plug-in) hybrids as the market for BEVs seems to have become saturated in the EU.

In the UK the requirement in previous years was for a certain average CO2 emission. This year it is specifically 22% zero emission vehicles.

That is going to be an epic failure for sure. Maybe the numbers will be met on paper but likely the manufacturers will simply stop selling non-BEV cars if that means exceeding the limit. In the end the UK market isn't that big. The end result is that older cars will be used much longer causing more CO2 emissions (and other pollution) compared to driving around in hybrids.

Pretty sure there's an age limit on cars in the UK.  The end result is that the UK fleet is forced to turn over every X years.  And if one assumes that new vehicles are incrementally less polluting, then the forced fleet turnover will cause less CO2 emissions over time.

[themadhippy]

Pretty sure there's an age limit on cars in the UK

nope,and if you know were to look you can even find leaded petrol to keep your old jalopy on the road

[Andy Chee]

Pretty sure there's an age limit on cars in the UK

nope,and if you know were to look you can even find leaded petrol to keep your old jalopy on the road

Old cars need to pass annual MOT testing, yes?

How often do old cars fail MOT and get sent to the scrapyard?

[tom66]

Actually, there is no requirement for the cars sold to be BEVs. The limit is the average CO2 emissions from new cars sold in the EU. I understand the regulations in the UK are similar. So it doesn't matter what kind of cars are being sold for as long as the average CO2 emission limits are met. This is why European car makers are now frantically shifting towards (plug-in) hybrids as the market for BEVs seems to have become saturated in the EU.

In the UK the requirement in previous years was for a certain average CO2 emission. This year it is specifically 22% zero emission vehicles.

That is going to be an epic failure for sure. Maybe the numbers will be met on paper but likely the manufacturers will simply stop selling non-BEV cars if that means exceeding the limit. In the end the UK market isn't that big. The end result is that older cars will be used much longer causing more CO2 emissions (and other pollution) compared to driving around in hybrids.

What is happening is manufacturers are increasing the price of ICE vehicles and slashing the price of EVs, for instance, a "delivery miles" VW ID.3 is available for £28k and the equivalent-model Golf costs... £28k.  Even though "on paper" the ID.3 costs £35k and the Golf costs £24k.  This is good for EV adoption, and for those who really want to buy an ICE, it is subsidising the EV market at the nascent stage.    One thing charging infrastructure needs is demand, so putting a lot of EVs on the road is good because it makes the business case for EV charging even better.

[tggzzz]

Pretty sure there's an age limit on cars in the UK

nope,and if you know were to look you can even find leaded petrol to keep your old jalopy on the road

The limit is at least 129 years old. https://www.veterancarrun.com/2024-veteran-car-run-1

My daughter's van is 1972, and she has to add all sorts of additives to E5 petrol

[tggzzz]

Pretty sure there's an age limit on cars in the UK

nope,and if you know were to look you can even find leaded petrol to keep your old jalopy on the road

Old cars need to pass annual MOT testing, yes?

How often do old cars fail MOT and get sent to the scrapyard?

Not necessarily. My daughter's van doesn't.
https://www.gov.uk/historic-vehicles

[tszaboo]

Not necessarily. My daughter's van doesn't.
https://www.gov.uk/historic-vehicles

Normal countries have this sensible rule that you are only allowed to drive your rust bucket oldtimer during the weekend, for limited distance. During dieselgate, we found out that there are cars that have 100x  the NOx emissions than normal petrol cars, and we honestly, shouldn't act like this is normal. Those cars are preserved for historical reasons, and entertainment, and not to be used on a daily basis.

[nctnico]

Actually, there is no requirement for the cars sold to be BEVs. The limit is the average CO2 emissions from new cars sold in the EU. I understand the regulations in the UK are similar. So it doesn't matter what kind of cars are being sold for as long as the average CO2 emission limits are met. This is why European car makers are now frantically shifting towards (plug-in) hybrids as the market for BEVs seems to have become saturated in the EU.

In the UK the requirement in previous years was for a certain average CO2 emission. This year it is specifically 22% zero emission vehicles.

That is going to be an epic failure for sure. Maybe the numbers will be met on paper but likely the manufacturers will simply stop selling non-BEV cars if that means exceeding the limit. In the end the UK market isn't that big. The end result is that older cars will be used much longer causing more CO2 emissions (and other pollution) compared to driving around in hybrids.

What is happening is manufacturers are increasing the price of ICE vehicles and slashing the price of EVs, for instance, a "delivery miles" VW ID.3 is available for £28k and the equivalent-model Golf costs... £28k.  Even though "on paper" the ID.3 costs £35k and the Golf costs £24k.  This is good for EV adoption, and for those who really want to buy an ICE, it is subsidising the EV market at the nascent stage.

Nope. You forget people have the choice not to buy a new car. And importing used cars is also an option although that option is hampered by the UK driving at the wrong side of the road. But making new cars more expensive, drives prices for used cars up as well making importing from other countries an economically viable route.

[bat]

His youtube channel is now a full media against Elon Musk... I miss his older videos when he was criticizing bootleg, goofy, dumb topics. But with Elon Musk and Telsa, he's doing too much, it's not interesting, it's just rants on rants without interest. His videos are definetely interesting for people who also dislike Musk because Musk haters can relate to the stuff he talks about.
It's my opinion on him. I wish he went back to his older ways...

[tom66]

Nope. You forget people have the choice not to buy a new car. And importing used cars is also an option although that option is hampered by the UK driving at the wrong side of the road. But making new cars more expensive, drives prices for used cars up as well making importing from other countries an economically viable route.

Yes and that's fine.  But used ICE cars will slowly disappear from the market... cars do not have an unlimited lifespan.  The goal is to phase out ICE by 2045-2050 or so, not to totally eliminate it tomorrow. With the average lifespan of a car being around 15 years, if you stop selling them in 2030-2035, that will happen by natural attrition.  And then we will wonder why we drove those weird combustion powered cars around everywhere.

[Psi]

There's so much factually incorrect news about Elon/SpaceX atm.

I came across this one the other day that says....

"You don’t get into bed with Elon Musk unless you’re ready for a pillow fight. Donald Trump knows that. OpenAI founder Sam Altman knows it. Europe’s richest man Bernard Arnault knows it. Nasa knows it, after Musk’s SpaceX tried and failed to rescue its two stranded astronauts."

https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/11/14/one-nz-learns-the-hard-way-dont-rely-on-elon-musk/

[themadhippy]

My daughter's van is 1972, and she has to add all sorts of additives to E5 petrol

How far is she from buckingham?

[Zero999]

Not necessarily. My daughter's van doesn't.
https://www.gov.uk/historic-vehicles

Normal countries have this sensible rule that you are only allowed to drive your rust bucket oldtimer during the weekend, for limited distance. During dieselgate, we found out that there are cars that have 100x  the NOx emissions than normal petrol cars, and we honestly, shouldn't act like this is normal. Those cars are preserved for historical reasons, and entertainment, and not to be used on a daily basis.

It no big deal, since there are such a small number of cars that old on the road and the majority of them are not used on a daily basis anyway.

Keeping some old cars is good, for historical purposes. Hardly anyone uses electronics with glassware nowadays, but it doesn't mean they should all be destroyed because they're inefficient.

[Ranayna]

Regarding historic cars... I had one in front of me one time this summer. I don't remember the model or manufacturer, but it was old, and had a historic numberplate, which you can get in germany if the car is at least 30 years old and is still mostly using original parts.
I think that car was significantly older than 30 years though. It at least pre-dated catalytic converters, because that car reeked to high heavens. The stink permeated everything and the filters in my car did nothing.

I am not old enough to remember the time when cars like that were the only ones on the street, but i am very glad that these times are over.

[tggzzz]

My daughter's van is 1972, and she has to add all sorts of additives to E5 petrol

How far is she from buckingham?

She was jittery about going 25% of the way to Buckingham.

If you know of a way of finding out where you can reliably get leaded petrol, she might be interested.

[tszaboo]

Not necessarily. My daughter's van doesn't.
https://www.gov.uk/historic-vehicles

Normal countries have this sensible rule that you are only allowed to drive your rust bucket oldtimer during the weekend, for limited distance. During dieselgate, we found out that there are cars that have 100x  the NOx emissions than normal petrol cars, and we honestly, shouldn't act like this is normal. Those cars are preserved for historical reasons, and entertainment, and not to be used on a daily basis.

It no big deal, since there are such a small number of cars that old on the road and the majority of them are not used on a daily basis anyway.

Keeping some old cars is good, for historical purposes. Hardly anyone uses electronics with glassware nowadays, but it doesn't mean they should all be destroyed because they're inefficient.

Do you remember Bob Pease? He was raving all the time that he has a VW Beetle. Several articles its mentioned, best car ever because he can fix it with a monkey wrench and a flathead screwdriver. Do you remember that he also died in a car accident? 
I'm sorry but this is one of those things that society has to accept. We don't allow heating with coal anymore, we don't let people pour pollutants everywhere. And oldtimer cars is a niche that belongs to the museum. Or an old van on faire. Not only because of pollution but also for safety features.

[tggzzz]

Not necessarily. My daughter's van doesn't.
https://www.gov.uk/historic-vehicles

Normal countries have this sensible rule that you are only allowed to drive your rust bucket oldtimer during the weekend, for limited distance. During dieselgate, we found out that there are cars that have 100x  the NOx emissions than normal petrol cars, and we honestly, shouldn't act like this is normal. Those cars are preserved for historical reasons, and entertainment, and not to be used on a daily basis.

It no big deal, since there are such a small number of cars that old on the road and the majority of them are not used on a daily basis anyway.

Keeping some old cars is good, for historical purposes. Hardly anyone uses electronics with glassware nowadays, but it doesn't mean they should all be destroyed because they're inefficient.

Do you remember Bob Pease? He was raving all the time that he has a VW Beetle. Several articles its mentioned, best car ever because he can fix it with a monkey wrench and a flathead screwdriver. Do you remember that he also died in a car accident? 
I'm sorry but this is one of those things that society has to accept. We don't allow heating with coal anymore, we don't let people pour pollutants everywhere. And oldtimer cars is a niche that belongs to the museum. Or an old van on faire. Not only because of pollution but also for safety features.

What was the cause of the accident? Stroke, heart attack, alcohol?

As always in life, don't sweat the small stuff: concentrate on big problems. Leaded petrol was once a big problem, but isn't any more.

Instead of burning coal in power stations, the UK now burns wood pellets from ancient forests - and gets a green subsidy for it. Is that better than burning coal? Or burning lignite in Germany?